tag:theconversation.com,2011:/uk/topics/wa-election-2017-35730/articlesWA election 2017 – The Conversation2017-12-16T22:11:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/889442017-12-16T22:11:36Z2017-12-16T22:11:36ZJohn Alexander easily retains Bennelong, and how the LNP saved Labor’s Jackie Trad in Queensland<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199533/original/file-20171216-17889-15lxxkx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Bennelong byelection result will boost Malcolm Turnbull's standing in the Coalition.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mick Tsikas</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Liberal John Alexander defeated Labor’s Kristina Keneally in the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/bennelong-by-election-2017/results/">Bennelong byelection</a> by a 54.2-45.8 margin, a swing to Labor of 5.6 points since the 2016 election. Primary votes were 44.1% Alexander (down 6.3), 36.3% Keneally (up 7.8), 6.9% Greens (down 2.2), 4.5% for the Australian Conservatives, and 3.2% Christian Democrats (down 3.2). </p>
<p>Up to 16,000 postals are still to be counted, and these will further increase Alexander’s vote, probably pushing his lead out to 55-45.</p>
<p>The easy win for Alexander restores the Coalition’s 76 seats in the lower house, returning it to a two-seat majority (76 Coalition vs 74 for all others).</p>
<p>In Bennelong, Newspoll and Galaxy had Alexander respectively at 50% and 51% two-party-preferred in polls conducted in the final week, while ReachTEL gave Alexander a 53-47 lead. In this case, ReachTEL was better than Newspoll and Galaxy.</p>
<p>Before the byelection, I said that, given the inaccuracy of seat polls, Labor could win, or there could be a thumping Liberal victory. Unlike the <a href="https://theconversation.com/democrat-doug-jones-wins-alabama-senate-byelection-in-stunning-upset-bennelong-is-tied-50-50-88952">Alabama Senate byelection</a>, this time the vote of the right-wing candidate was understated.</p>
<p>In New England, there was a large swing to Barnaby Joyce following a Section 44 disqualification, so Labor’s consolation in Bennelong is that it received a swing that would have easily won it a general election. Nevertheless, given the polling that suggested a close contest, this is a disappointing result for Labor, and will boost Malcolm Turnbull’s standing within the Coalition. </p>
<p>At the 2016 election, the Christian Democrats won 6.4%, so the overall vote for the Christian right (Australian Conservatives and Christian Democrats) was 7.7%, up 1.3 points.</p>
<p>Bennelong voted marginally against same-sex marriage (50.2-49.8), but this result does not suggest a massive number of same-sex marriage opponents are turning to the Christian right. Alexander had supported same-sex marriage.</p>
<h2>Queensland poll critique, preference flows, and how the LNP saved Jackie Trad</h2>
<p>The table below shows the final three Queensland election polls, and how they compare with the election results. </p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/939676932840439809">Kevin Bonham</a> estimated Labor won 51.2% of the two-party vote, virtually unchanged on 2015. A poll result within one point of the actual outcome is in bold.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199381/original/file-20171215-17854-1y4xsqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199381/original/file-20171215-17854-1y4xsqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=123&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199381/original/file-20171215-17854-1y4xsqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=123&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199381/original/file-20171215-17854-1y4xsqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=123&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199381/original/file-20171215-17854-1y4xsqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=154&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199381/original/file-20171215-17854-1y4xsqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=154&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199381/original/file-20171215-17854-1y4xsqi.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=154&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queensland election polls vs results.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>ReachTEL asked for statewide One Nation support, while Newspoll and Galaxy only asked in the 61 (out of 93) seats One Nation contested. ReachTEL may have been close had One Nation contested all seats. Newspoll was very close on all primary votes, while Galaxy was a little high on the major parties, and a little low on the Greens and One Nation.</p>
<p><a href="http://insidestory.org.au/queensland-a-final-note-on-preferences/">Tim Colebatch</a> wrote in Inside Story that One Nation preferences flowed to the LNP at a 65% rate, while Greens preferences went to Labor at a 76% rate. </p>
<p>This data is based on the distribution of preferences, which includes preferences from other candidates in the One Nation and Greens totals. It is likely the flow from One Nation primary votes to the LNP was higher than 65%, and the flow from Greens primary votes to Labor was higher than 76%.</p>
<p>I believe Newspoll and Galaxy expected a One Nation flow to the LNP of about 60%, while ReachTEL used respondent-allocated preferences. The final ReachTEL poll was thus better than Newspoll or Galaxy on two-party-preferred terms. However, earlier ReachTEL polls consistently had the LNP ahead by 52-48, before the final poll became more in line with Newspoll and Galaxy.</p>
<p>31% of overall votes were won by parties other than the big two, but Colebatch says One Nation and Greens preferences effectively cancelled each other out.</p>
<p>84 of the 93 seats went to the primary vote leader. Of the other nine, Labor lost three it led on primary votes, but won four it trailed on. The LNP lost two seats to the Greens and Katter’s Australian Party that it led on primary votes.</p>
<p>Labor’s left-wing deputy premier, Jackie Trad, became treasurer after the election. She would almost certainly have lost her South Brisbane seat had the LNP recommended preferences to the Greens ahead of Trad. </p>
<p>Primary votes in South Brisbane were 36% Trad, 34% Greens, 24% LNP. <a href="https://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/booth76.html#4">Trad won 62%</a> of LNP preferences, giving her a 53.6-46.4 win over the Greens. Had the LNP put the Greens ahead of Trad on its how-to-vote cards, rather than the reverse, the Greens would have very probably defeated Trad.</p>
<h2>Belated Western Australian election poll critique</h2>
<p>I was expecting a statewide two-party count in all Western Australian seats for the March 11 election, but this has not occurred. </p>
<p>Antony Green <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Australian_state_election,_2017">estimated Labor</a> won 55.5% of the two-party vote, a swing to Labor of almost 13 points since the 2013 election. I have used this estimate in the table below.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199374/original/file-20171215-26025-agr18l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199374/original/file-20171215-26025-agr18l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199374/original/file-20171215-26025-agr18l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199374/original/file-20171215-26025-agr18l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=126&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199374/original/file-20171215-26025-agr18l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=159&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199374/original/file-20171215-26025-agr18l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=159&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199374/original/file-20171215-26025-agr18l.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=159&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Western Australian election polls vs results.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>All polls asked for One Nation support statewide, when One Nation did not contest many seats. This error led to the change in Queensland for Galaxy and Newspoll. </p>
<p>In WA, all polls underestimated Labor and the Greens, overstated One Nation, and had the combined Liberal and National vote about right. Labor performed better after preferences than expected.</p>
<p>As in Queensland, ReachTEL’s earlier polls in WA were worse for Labor, before its final poll fell into line with Newspoll and Galaxy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The easy win for John Alexander in the Bennelong byelection restores the Coalition’s two-seat majority in the House of Representatives.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/749272017-03-22T05:25:36Z2017-03-22T05:25:36ZWestern Australia’s welcome engagement in Asia has been a long time coming<p>The newly elected Western Australia premier, Mark McGowan, has appointed the state’s first <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-2017/wa-gets-australias-first-indigenous-treasurer-as-labor-reveals-portfolios-20170316-guzk1m.html">minister for Asian engagement</a>, Bill Johnston. </p>
<p>The appointment shows that McGowan’s administration understands how deeply embedded the state’s interests are in the Asian neighbourhood. Some of WA’s strongest economic and cultural advantages come from its proximity to Southeast Asia. The large multinationals headquartered in Perth tend either to have significant operations or be part-owned by companies in the region. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="http://www.woodside.com.au/About-Us/Profile/Pages/Locations-and-Offices.aspx#.WNDdL01MS70">Woodside</a> is a major player in the regional oil and gas industry. The parent company of telecommunications provider <a href="https://www.optus.com.au/about/corporate/investors">Optus</a> is Singapore communications group Singtel. Indonesia is also Western Australia’s largest export market for <a href="https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/grains-research-development/western-australian-wheat-industry">wheat</a>. </p>
<p>In 2015, a WA Labor Party consultation paper, <a href="http://www.markmcgowan.com.au/files/Asian_Engagement_-_A_Case_for_a_Whole_of_Government_Approach.pdf">Asian Engagement: A Case for Whole-of-Government Approach</a>, proposed the post of minister for Asian engagement. The report followed federal Labor’s 2012 <a href="http://asiancentury.dpmc.gov.au/">White Paper on Australia in the Asian Century</a> and was undertaken by the then shadow minister, Peter Tinley, to help WA Labor envision concrete actions to engage fully with Asia.</p>
<p>The whole-of-government approach has three key areas of emphasis: </p>
<p>1) Asia readiness: trade, investment and jobs</p>
<p>2) Asia relationships: government-to-government</p>
<p>3) Asia literacy: cultural networks. </p>
<p>Creating the new ministry was the report’s first and top recommendation. Among other things, the minister would focus on promoting WA trade and investment, identify opportunities for Western Australians to work in Asia, help with co-ordination, collaboration, information sharing and knowledge management across areas of Asia expertise and existing engagement activities within government and communities. </p>
<p>And, if the McGowan government follows the report’s recommendations, there will be a refreshing pivot away from China’s dominance of Australia’s engagement in Asia towards the closer neighbourhood of Southeast Asia. This makes good sense because, as the report says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… by 2050, the combined economy of the ASEAN countries will be the fourth largest in the world. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Old Indonesia hand</h2>
<p>Johnston is an old Indonesia hand and fluent in conversational Indonesian. He has been active in WA-Indonesia activities for many years. He sits on the board of the <a href="http://www.balaibahasaperth.org/board-of-management">Balai Bahasa</a> Indonesian teachers’ organisation. </p>
<p>As someone who has always been interested in and active in cross-cultural interactions, Johnston’s appointment is in stark contrast to the previous state Liberal government’s stance towards Indonesia. </p>
<p>In 2014, the government attempted to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-05/wa-trade-office-in-jakarta-to-remain-open/6001028">shut down</a> the WA trade office in Jakarta after 22 years for want, according to then-premier Colin Barnett, of:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… the level of contact at the most senior level of business or, indeed, within the political system in Jakarta.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>If not for industry consultation and passionate parliamentary discussion, the state would no longer have a trade office in Southeast Asia’s largest country.</p>
<h2>Supported by voters</h2>
<p>McGowan can confidently put his ideas into action after Labor’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-13/labors-mark-mcgowan-wins-landslide-victory-in-wa/8349468">landslide victory</a> in the March 11 state election. </p>
<p>The 16% swing against the Liberals was attributed to their <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-13/recriminations-and-bloodletting-in-liberal-wa-camp/8349268">unpopular alliance with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation</a> and concerns about the two-term government’s management of the economy and major projects.</p>
<p>Labor now holds <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/labor-claims-41-seats-in-wa-election/news-story/da72b22c51d7995bcf643bc0a9bc3b1f">41 of 59 seats</a> in the WA parliament.</p>
<h2>A positive shift towards diversity</h2>
<p>To properly engage with the state’s neighbours requires Western Australians to have a better grasp of their own backyard. WA Labor has set off on the right foot by appointing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-16/labor-cabinet-unveiled-wa-election-mcgowan/8357204">Ben Wyatt as treasurer</a>. Wyatt, a member of the Gidja tribe in Western Australia, has been shadow treasurer since 2008. </p>
<p>He won the cosmopolitan seat of Victoria Park by a huge margin, having held it since the Labor premier, Geoff Gallop, retired in 2006. Wyatt is capable, experienced and committed. </p>
<p>With one of the heaviest portfolios, combining the roles of treasurer, finance, energy and Aboriginal affairs, Wyatt will play a key role in government. His appointment heralds an important shift in challenging how Aboriginal people are perceived as economic managers within Australian colonial-settler society. The perception of Aboriginal people as <a href="https://overland.org.au/2012/12/income-management-in-the-northern-territory-racism-is-still-the-issue/">less-than-competent managers</a> continues to undermine Aboriginal land and cultural claims. </p>
<p>The McGowan government has shown it is prepared to adopt a more diverse, inclusive and culturally sensitive approach at home and abroad. Perhaps conversations with the neighbours will get beyond “<a href="https://theconversation.com/beyond-boats-beef-and-bali-reassessing-australias-relations-with-indonesia-15756">boats, beef and Bali</a>”, as Indonesia’s ambassador to Australia, Nadjib Riphat Kesoema, lamented at a forum in Perth last year. </p>
<p>In McGowan’s “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-16/labor-cabinet-unveiled-wa-election-mcgowan/8357204">cabinet for the times</a>” lies hope that we will collectively revive the relationship with Asia that Northern Territory Senator Malarndirri McCarthy described in her 2016 <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;db=CHAMBER;id=chamber%2Fhansards%2F16daad94-5c74-4641-a730-7f6d74312148%2F0143;query=Id%3A%22chamber%2Fhansards%2F16daad94-5c74-4641-a730-7f6d74312148%2F0139%22">maiden parliamentary speech</a>, where:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… cultural exchange both amongst clan groups within Australia and with people outside Australia was a natural part of life well before Captain Cook arrived in 1788.</p>
<p>There was already a thriving economic foreign trade occurring between Australia and with countries to our north. It is Aboriginal people who were the diplomats with foreign countries, the trading partners who shared knowledge and exchanged agriculture and marine sources of food and tools in the form of harpoons for hunting and knowledge of carving canoes to set sail in the unpredictable wet season seas.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74927/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thor Kerr is affiliated with The Greens, and was a candidate for the seat of Riverton in the 2017 state election. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Leong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The appointment of Western Australia’s first minister for Asian engagement shows the new state government understands how deeply embedded the state’s interests are in the Asian neighbourhood.Susan Leong, Research Fellow in Internet Studies, Curtin UniversityThor Kerr, Lecturer in the School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/747562017-03-17T00:48:47Z2017-03-17T00:48:47ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the energy crisis<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra deputy vice-chancellor (academic) and vice-president Nicholas Klomp and professorial fellow Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics, including the energy crisis, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s meeting with the gas companies, the federal government’s plan to boost generation from the Snowy Hydro scheme, and Labor winning the Western Australian election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74756/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The University of Canberra’s Nicholas Klomp and Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraNicholas Klomp, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Education, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/742322017-03-12T19:19:53Z2017-03-12T19:19:53ZOne Nation’s preference deal in the WA election comes back to bite it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160395/original/image-20170312-19263-d98vyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pauline Hanson after her One Nation party performed worse than expected at the WA election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rebecca Le May</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One Nation thought it could smell sweet electoral success for much of the Western Australian state election campaign. </p>
<p>The party had reason to be confident about its prospects, despite the recent debacle concerning <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/exone-nation-senator-rod-culleton-was-not-eligible-to-have-been-elected-high-court-rules/news-story/b42a76773769d437c17a88bf09710334">Rod Culleton</a>, the former One Nation and later independent senator found ineligible to stand for parliament. </p>
<p>The party’s founder, Pauline Hanson, had resumed the leadership mantle and had emerged as a high-profile deal-maker in the Senate. Hanson used her profile to support her <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/waelection/wa-election-2017-one-nation-leader-pauline-hanson-campaigns-in-wa/news-story/4c08ee3ded58f5c311653fa38d1a6096">“down-to-earth, upfront and honest grassroots”</a> candidates by making frequent visits to the state during the campaign. </p>
<p>Polls had the party as resurgent and on track to win up to 13% of the primary vote.</p>
<p>On the strength of its strong performance in the polls, both major parties were reported to have been <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-03/one-nation-preference-deals-both-parties-courting/8239984">jostling</a> for One Nation’s preferences. It was the Liberals that sealed the deal in the end. Liberal leader Colin Barnett was unapologetic, even if <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/wa-premier-colin-barnett-uncomfortable-with-one-nation-deal-but-says-theyre-a-reality/news-story/8a1086b3eb092fc7a9597d5aef9a6829">“uncomfortable”</a>, about the decision. </p>
<p>This deal was significant for One Nation. </p>
<p>The preference pact had the potential to enhance the electoral prospects of One Nation candidates contesting upper house regions.</p>
<p>The deal was also important because it signalled that One Nation was no longer a political pariah. Former Liberal prime minister John Howard defended the preference deal with One Nation on the grounds that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/17/john-howard-backs-liberal-preference-deal-with-one-nation-in-wa">“everyone changes in 16 years”</a>. And high-profile Liberal senator Arthur Sinodinos argued One Nation are <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/arthur-sinodinos-defends-liberal-party-preference-deal-with-pauline-hanson-and-one-nation/news-story/2f6f1cd7a5af4486af55c893e762439b">“a lot more sophisticated”</a>. </p>
<p>But the party’s supposed new-found sophistication was rarely on show during the campaign. </p>
<p>Hanson <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2016/s4630647.htm">applauded</a> Russian President Vladimir Putin for his patriotism and strong-man persona, but paradoxically likened a policy that made eligibility for certain forms of family payments and childcare benefits contingent on parents vaccinating their children as akin to living in a <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/pauline-hanson-praises-vladimir-putin-in-bizarre-abc-interview/news-story/e3a61135bc0d7760c27ac493d127f746">dictatorship</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/lefties-cause-social-ills-hanson-ng-b88407541z">“Bloody lefties”</a> within the education system were denounced as the cause of social problems that were afflicting regional towns. Muslims were accused of having <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2017/03/06/which-good-one-you-cant-tell-good-muslim-bad-one-hanson">“no respect”</a> for Australia, and making preparations to eventually overthrow Australian governments. </p>
<p>The party struggled to contain its <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-and-labor-on-a-knife-edge-in-wa-while-things-look-up-for-one-nation-20170305-gur50l.html">candidates</a>. Two were disendorsed and two more resigned during the campaign. Four days before polling day, two former high-ranking party officials who were sacked from the party went public with their decision to take legal action against Hanson for age discrimination. </p>
<p>And three days before the election, there were concerns the party’s <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/one-nation-vote-cards-break-election-law-ng-b88408871z">how-to-vote cards</a> were not legally compliant.</p>
<p>In a final blow to an already chaotic campaign, Hanson declared the preference deal it had struck with the Liberals had likely done the party <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-11/wa-election-pauline-hanson-says-liberal-deal-hurt-one-nation/8346160">“damage”</a>. </p>
<h2>What cost the preference deal?</h2>
<p>Certainly the result reveals that One Nation failed to perform as strongly as the early opinion polls had predicted. With 67.25% of the lower house vote counted, One Nation <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/">attracted only 4.74%</a> of primary votes.</p>
<p>What then does this all mean? Was the preference deal a mistake for One Nation? Can a so-called anti-establishment party enter into a preference deal with an establishment party and survive to tell the story? The prevailing opinion is “no”.</p>
<p>However, let’s consider the claims that have been levelled about the preference deal. The main claim is the preference deal was the primary cause of One Nation’s electoral woes. </p>
<p>There is definitely <a href="https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/the-west-wa-state-poll-9march17">polling data</a> which shows many voters were opposed to the deal. What is less clear is if this opposition translated into action at the ballot box. If, for example, we calculate (or average) One Nation’s primary vote according to the actual number of lower house seats it contested, then its primary vote is around 8.26%. </p>
<p>While this figure is well short of the early double-digit polling results tipped for One Nation, it suggests that its support did hold up (and this is in spite of an electoral campaign that was chaotic and ill-disciplined).</p>
<p>The second general claim is the idea that a preference deal for either party under any circumstances is tantamount to electoral suicide. </p>
<p>Again, this argument might be something of a stretch. What appeared to actually blight this agreement was the particular electoral and political dynamics that surrounded it, and not the mere fact of a deal being negotiated between the two parties. </p>
<p>The Liberals struck a preference deal that favoured One Nation over its historical alliance partner, the Nationals. While the Liberals might have been justified by its decision, it ultimately proved very difficult to square with the conservative base more generally. The preference deal made a desperate party appear even more desperate.</p>
<p>One Nation agreed to a preference deal with the Liberals even though it proposed the partial privatisation of the electricity utility, a policy One Nation <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/wa-election-one-nation-vows-not-to-negotiate-on-western-power-privatisation-20170306-gurf4l">rejected</a>. The planned privatisation of the utility was deeply unpopular, opposed by as many as 61% of voters. </p>
<p>In spite of its protestations to the contrary, One Nation had hitched its wagon to one of the most controversial policy issues of the entire campaign.</p>
<p>It could be argued that under different conditions, this preference deal need not have generated as much collateral damage as this one seems to have caused.</p>
<p>Any damage arising from this preference deal to One Nation is likely to prove fleeting. The party is on track to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/results/legislative-council/">win two seats</a> in the Legislative Council, most likely with the assistance of Liberal preferences. </p>
<p>In the end, the real danger for One Nation lies not with who it chooses to enter into preference deals with, but how it manages it internal affairs, and the conduct of its elected members – especially its leader.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74232/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The controversial preference deal with the Liberals, and a disastrous campaign, saw One Nation perform worse than expected in Western Australia.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/744302017-03-12T08:10:47Z2017-03-12T08:10:47ZTurnbull’s refusal to rule out preferencing Hanson raises questions about the ‘real Malcolm’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160397/original/image-20170312-19266-1iaxb1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Malcolm Turnbull will have to work out how best to handle Pauline Hanson and One Nation before the next federal election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Brendan Esposito</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the national narrative, perhaps the most notable story out of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-wa-in-a-landslide-as-one-nation-fails-to-land-a-blow-74062">Western Australian election</a> revolves around Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Turnbull.</p>
<p>Despite the backlash from WA Liberal voters over the now-infamous preference deal the party did with her, Turnbull on Sunday wouldn’t rule out the Liberals playing footsie on preferences federally, deflecting questions by saying it was a matter for the party organisation.</p>
<p>Turnbull surely must be uncomfortable with his line. This would seem to be yet another area where he is not being true to his personal values. It must add to the confusion of voters wondering about the “real Malcolm”.</p>
<p>Hanson has come out of the WA election with her very ragged petticoats on display.</p>
<p>One Nation did much worse than it was polling early in the campaign. Expectations were high. On Saturday night Hanson was lamenting the preference deal, while trying to wriggle out of blame for the likely impact of her <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2016/s4630647.htm">irresponsible comments on vaccination</a>.</p>
<p>This was a polarising election – people were about changing the government, not just registering a protest.</p>
<p>While Hanson’s WA vote was very low in aggregate, in the three non-metropolitan regions for the upper house One Nation polled (on the count so far) between 9% and 14%.</p>
<p>In the Legislative Assembly seats with One Nation candidates, it polled about 8%; in the lower house seats it contested outside Perth it polled 9.6%.</p>
<p>ABC election analyst Antony Green says the preference deal delivered nothing to the Liberals, but has brought One Nation an upper house seat in the south-west region and potentially a second seat, in the mining and pastoral region.</p>
<p>Regardless of her poor performance, Hanson continues to present a challenge for the conservative parties.</p>
<p>The WA result cut her down to size, and the campaign shows how such a party is likely eventually to blow itself up (as it did before). But that could take a while, and in the meantime the damage Hanson can do in the coming Queensland election and – depending on what happens there – the federal election means the debate over how to handle her will continue to rend the conservatives.</p>
<p>It took some time for John Howard to muscle up against Hanson two decades ago. Now we see Turnbull remaining equivocal – denouncing some of her stands but courting her as the leader of a Senate bloc and keeping options open on preferences.</p>
<p>Any preference deal in Queensland or federally would be quite different from the WA one. It would not disadvantage the Nationals. There is a combined party in Queensland and a coalition nationally (as distinct from the “alliance” that operated in WA).</p>
<p>It would be a matter of putting One Nation ahead of Labor.</p>
<p>The coming debate involves not just how the Liberals see their electoral advantage, but a question of principle: given what Hanson represents, shouldn’t the major parties form a united front to try to squeeze her out of existence – which means placing her last or, for the Liberals and Nationals, at least behind Labor?</p>
<p>The Nationals are clear-eyed about Hanson because she is such a direct threat to them. But they are divided on the best approach to the danger she represents, and are likely to be pragmatic about preferences.</p>
<p>It is notable that the Nationals vote in WA held up relatively well (though the fate of their leader Brendon Grylls is uncertain). The same happened at last year’s federal election; the Nationals are often closer to feeling on the ground than the Liberals.</p>
<p>Turnbull is right that the thumping WA loss is overwhelmingly about the local scene. If the federal government was doing well, the main impact of the result would be having to deal with one more state ALP government. But when you are in deep trouble, it’s another matter.</p>
<p>The WA defeat will add to the jitters on the backbench; it is an object lesson in how fierce the voters can be when they turn against a government. You can be sure also that Turnbull’s enemies within his own ranks will find ways to use this latest Liberal bad news against him.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Bill Shorten is seeking – without the slightest evidence – to segue from the state result to the federal battlefield by claiming that a reaction to Turnbull’s “absolute refusal to stop the cuts to penalty rates” was one factor.</p>
<p>Morale is vital in politics, and just as the federal Liberals will be discombobulated by the WA result, so federal Labor will be encouraged. In Labor there is confidence the tide is moving its way. Strategists believe Queensland can be held at the state election.</p>
<p>For Shorten the message from WA is that a steady leader, albeit without charisma but with a united team and an acceptable message, can win when the electorate has become disenchanted with the government.</p>
<p>Circumstances are different federally from WA, where the economy and the electorate are suffering from the post-mining boom shocks. But what’s common is a struggling government, a budget in the red, and a leader who has become unpopular.</p>
<p>Going for Turnbull is that he has time – two years – before the voters get a chance to declare “time’s up”. The question for him is how to best use that time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74430/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
For the national narrative, perhaps the most notable story out of the Western Australian election revolves around Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Turnbull. Despite the backlash from WA Liberal voters over the…Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/740622017-03-11T23:06:33Z2017-03-11T23:06:33ZLabor wins WA in a landslide as One Nation fails to land a blow<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160390/original/image-20170311-19263-d6yd4h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former navy lawyer Mark McGowan is set to become the new premier of Western Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Labor has won the 2017 Western Australian election in a landslide, sweeping aside the long-running Barnett government and installing Labor’s Mark McGowan as the state’s 30th premier.</p>
<p>The ABC is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/">predicting</a> Labor will win 40 seats, doubling its current number of seats held and providing it with a clear majority.</p>
<p>The Liberals look to have held only 14 of their 30 seats, while the Nationals appear to have held five of their seven lower house seats. Several seats technically <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/results/list/?selector=indoubt&sort=az">remain in doubt</a>. </p>
<p>Labor’s victory is Perth-based. Thirty-five of the 40 predicted seats it won are based in the metropolitan area. Within the three non-metropolitan regions, Labor has held Kimberley and Albany, and likely picked up only three seats – Bunbury, Collie-Preston (notionally Liberal after the latest redistribution), Murray-Wellington. All, except Kimberley, are in the state’s south-west.</p>
<p>State-wide, the One Nation vote in the Legislative Assembly is only 4.7%. It looks like One Nation could win two seats in the Legislative Council, one in Mining and Pastoral and the other in the south-west. This is below the <a href="http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/wa/2017/03/06/wa-election-one-nation/">results expected</a> prior to Pauline Hanson’s <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/politics/a-chronicle-of-chaos-dogs-pauline-hansons-wa-election-campaign/news-story/8fed8eff5b2bd00b07bb61232a138da1">disastrous trip to WA</a>.</p>
<h2>A drover’s dog type of election?</h2>
<p>This was an election where the vote was driven by dislike of the sitting government, rather than attraction to the opposition.</p>
<p>It’s rare for a party to gain a third term in WA, and the Barnett government has been trailing in the polls for some time. In particular, as the face of his government, Premier Colin Barnett <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/libs-blame-anti-barnett-sentiment-as-labor-surges-ahead-ng-b88409009z">is deeply unpopular</a> across the state.</p>
<p>The election day <a href="https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/the-west-wa-state-poll-9march17">ReachTEL poll of 2,573</a> voters, published in The West Australian, had Labor on a two-party-preferred vote of 54% to 46%. Of those planning to vote Labor, 27.2% said their main reason was that “It’s time for a change of government”, and 16.3% said “I don’t like Colin Barnett”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160385/original/image-20170311-19234-1sq2uwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160385/original/image-20170311-19234-1sq2uwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160385/original/image-20170311-19234-1sq2uwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160385/original/image-20170311-19234-1sq2uwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160385/original/image-20170311-19234-1sq2uwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160385/original/image-20170311-19234-1sq2uwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160385/original/image-20170311-19234-1sq2uwc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ReachTEL poll, March 9.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ReachTEL</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Mark McGowan: WA’s new premier</h2>
<p>McGowan will become premier after surviving a somewhat <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-labor-avoids-own-goal-but-what-damage-has-smiths-tilt-at-the-leadership-done-56195">bizarre challenge</a> on his leadership last March by former federal Labor minster Stephen Smith.</p>
<p>McGowan, who has been <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/lifestyle/stm/mark-mcgowan-labor-of-love/news-story/b6278a1017c6bdc271b01e4f263fd590">opposition leader since 2012</a>, has patiently plugged away at the government.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://theconversation.com/barnett-government-looks-set-for-defeat-as-one-nation-looms-large-in-wa-election-73838">strained economic circumstances</a> in which WA finds itself, it is difficult to run a campaign full of expensive promises. The most high-profile of Labor’s policies was its declaration that it would not <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/barnett-government-to-announce-sale-of-western-power-20161130-gt0izl.html">sell Western Power</a>, which the government hoped to use to reduce state debt by around A$8 billion.</p>
<p>Labor also campaigned heavily on public transport, which the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-22/wa-govt-pushes-ahead-with-ellenbrook-rapid-bus/8047748">government had failed to deliver</a> on over its last two terms.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.markmcgowan.com.au/METRONET">Metronet rail network plan</a> gained a place in the public imagination during the 2013 campaign. The basics of the plan survived Labor’s defeat at the last state election as it remained popular within the electorate, providing a clear alternative plan to the changing positions of the Barnett government.</p>
<p>Labor cleverly claimed it would <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/malcolm-turnbulls-threat-could-derail-wa-labors-metronet/news-story/dfcb96fb765f11bf02b3b5748f7bcd73">fund Metronet</a> by cancelling the Perth Freight Link, which includes the deeply unpopular Roe 8 extension, and diverting the federal funding from that project to Metronet.</p>
<h2>Colin Barnett’s defeat is a tale of a tin ear</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/barnett-government-looks-set-for-defeat-as-one-nation-looms-large-in-wa-election-73838">The key issues in this election</a> have tended to be economic in nature. WA’s unemployment rates, high state debt, high cost of living, and predicted budget deficits, have not instilled confidence in voters.</p>
<p>The outgoing premier’s <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/wa-election/wa-election-vote-alp-and-return-state-to-unionrun-dullsville/news-story/5cb324d6f8a60586bb2b2295940bf375">last appeal to voters</a> was “please don’t vote for a return to Dullsville” that ended with the old argument that the unions would be in control under Labor. </p>
<p>Given the economic uncertainty, it was a strange plea. Many voters are more concerned with being able to pay their mortgage than take advantage of the <a href="https://thewest.com.au/opinion/dullsville-it-was-the-slap-in-the-face-perth-needed-ng-b88358013z">improvements to city</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160391/original/image-20170311-19263-aipr8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/160391/original/image-20170311-19263-aipr8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160391/original/image-20170311-19263-aipr8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160391/original/image-20170311-19263-aipr8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160391/original/image-20170311-19263-aipr8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160391/original/image-20170311-19263-aipr8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/160391/original/image-20170311-19263-aipr8e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Outgoing premier Colin Barnett had become unpopular with voters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Richard Wainwright</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Barnett’s fundamental problem is that while his government has transformed Perth over the last eight years, voters are more concerned with their own economic circumstances, and the benefits of large infrastructure projects have not resonated.</p>
<p>It’s a hard sell to convince people that while the significant economic downturn over the last four years is due to circumstances the government can’t control, the government can nonetheless be trusted to turn the state’s fortunes around.</p>
<h2>Brendan Grylls distinguishes the Nationals from the Liberals</h2>
<p>Outside of Perth, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/BrendonGrylls">Brendan Grylls</a> appears to have saved the Nationals from oblivion.</p>
<p>Grylls is responsible, through the <a href="http://www.drd.wa.gov.au/rfr/Pages/default.aspx">Royalties for Regions</a> program, for differentiating the Nationals from the Liberals. While the swing against the Liberals is projected to be around 16%, the swing against the Nationals is projected to be less than 1%.</p>
<p>The fact the Nationals have held their ground is impressive on two fronts. The first was the threat One Nation posed outside the metro area.</p>
<p>The other is that the WA Chamber of Minerals and Energy <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/chamber-of-minerals-and-energy-spent-2m-on-antinationals-campaign/news-story/2594bdba4f312843aeb90895cb6f8ae2">spent around $2 million</a> campaigning against Grylls’ proposal of raising the 25 cent per tonne production rental fee on iron ore to $5, which would deliver an estimated $7.2 billion over the next four years.</p>
<p>Grylls is the member for Pilbara, having moved from the seat of Central Wheatbelt in the 2013 election. The tax policy was high risk, particularly for Grylls himself given that much of WA’s mining happens in his seat. </p>
<p>While the plan seems to have worked in the agricultural parts of the state, the count will continue in the mining seats of Pilbara and Kalgoorlie, which are too close to call. </p>
<h2>What the eastern states can learn from the result</h2>
<p>In terms of the WA election having federal implications for the Turnbull government, this really was an election determined by local issues.</p>
<p>During the campaign Bill Shorten visited three times, while Malcolm Turnbull made only one fleeting visit, where he failed to deliver a plan to get WA a <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-election-2017/prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-throws-colin-barnett-under-the-bus-over-gst-20170220-guheqd.html">“fair” share of the GST</a>.</p>
<p>While it is generally not opportune for a national governing party to lose at state level, only internal mischief-makers would try to blame the loss on Turnbull’s leadership.</p>
<p>The most significant issues that will resonate across the country will be the outcome of the preference deal with One Nation, and the ability of the Nationals to differentiate themselves so convincingly from the Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74062/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Mast is Chair of the Editorial Board of The Conversation.</span></em></p>The long-running and unpopular Barnett government has been ousted, ushering in a new Labor government led by former navy lawyer Mark McGowan.Natalie Mast, Associate Director, Business Intelligence & Analytics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/743682017-03-10T02:51:03Z2017-03-10T02:51:03ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the Western Australian election<figure>
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<p>University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research) Frances Shannon and Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politics, including the upcoming Western Australian election, One Nation’s controversial campaign, and preference deals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74368/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The University of Canberra’s Frances Shannon and Michelle Grattan discuss the week in politicsMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraFrances Shannon, Deputy Vice-Chancellor, Research, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/743302017-03-09T12:04:51Z2017-03-09T12:04:51ZGrattan on Friday: One Nation blows WA campaign but will Hanson’s supporters care?<p>Saturday’s Western Australian election will be decided overwhelmingly on state factors but its outcome will rumble into Canberra. </p>
<p>If the Barnett government is defeated, not only will Malcolm Turnbull have to contend with one more state Labor government but the Coalition backbench and the wider conservative constituency will become even more agitated in an already volatile climate. Turnbull has had virtually no role in the campaign but that wouldn’t protect him from the fallout of a Liberal loss. </p>
<p>Equally important, the state election is being watched as a major test of Pauline Hanson’s pulling power.</p>
<p>The preference deal between the Liberals and Hanson, at the expense of the furious Nationals, marks a new phase in relations between mainstream conservatism and the maverick right-wing outlier. If Hanson polls well, that will reinforce the pressure for preference deals, first at the coming Queensland election – where a deal already seems extremely likely – and then at the federal election.</p>
<p>But much will depend on how the Hanson vote is read. If she polls say, 10%, this can be interpreted as strong or as a disappointment when measured against earlier hints that she might do much better.</p>
<p>The disruptive force of Hanson, even amid an imploding party, has been on full display in recent weeks.</p>
<p>The WA preference deal – under which the Liberals preference One Nation over the Nationals for the upper house and One Nation puts Labor behind the Liberals for the lower house – has angered both Liberal and One Nation supporters. </p>
<p>Potential One Nation voters are looking for a party that disses the system – they don’t want to be told to support, albeit indirectly, the unpopular Barnett government. Hanson will pay a price if they think she has gone from the “outsider” to an “insider”. </p>
<p>For his part, Colin Barnett has had to protest endlessly that he’s not really in bed with Hanson and her mates. “Can I stress there’s no agreement with One Nation. I don’t endorse their policies. I don’t endorse their candidates and there is no agreement about any role in government about legislation or policy,” is his mantra.</p>
<p>The backlash from some Liberal supporters highlights the danger of Liberals anywhere in the country cosying up through preference arrangements to One Nation, whose attitudes are anathema to many on the conservative side of politics.</p>
<p>Hanson has spent the last week of the campaign in the west, particularly in regional areas, where the party hopes the preference deal will give it a balance-of-power role in the upper house.</p>
<p>The paradox of her campaign is that she is greeted as a celebrity on the streets, while members of her party have been turning on her bitterly. </p>
<p>Eighty-seven-year-old Ron McLean and his 79-year old wife, Marye Daniels, who have hired a high-profile lawyer, say <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-08/sacked-one-nation-couple-get-legal-representation/8336790">Hanson dumped them</a> last month from their party positions. McLean, who had been WA party president and a candidate for the upper house, claimed Hanson had said he was too old and would be 91 at the end of the parliamentary term. One Nation counter-claimed that it was about disloyalty and McLean’s health. </p>
<p>Polling analyst William Bowe says One Nation’s campaign has been “a bit of a shambles”. But he raises the question: “With respect to how well they’re going to go … how much does that matter?”</p>
<p>Just as the WA Liberals have been trying to defend their dubious deal with One Nation, Hanson has made their task more difficult by her inflammatory statements this week. </p>
<p>Hours before arriving in WA she told the ABC on Sunday that parents should do their own research before having their kids vaccinated, and she waxed lyrical about Vladimir Putin. The following day she was back on her Muslim jihad, saying they had changed Australian suburbs and questioning how one distinguished a good Muslim from a bad Muslim. </p>
<p>Malcolm Turnbull rounded on her on all three fronts. But former Queensland Nationals senator Ron Boswell, who trenchantly fought Hanson two decades ago, suggested the Liberals have given comfort to her. He pointed to federal cabinet minister Arthur Sinodinos’s observation some weeks ago that One Nation had become “a lot more sophisticated”.</p>
<p>Boswell <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/07/voters-will-desert-coalition-if-deals-done-with-one-nation-former-nationals-senator-warns">told Guardian Australia</a> he was worried that the conservatives were not taking Hanson on, but just thinking about the short term. Comments like those of Sinodinos were legitimising her – “making it safe for people to vote for her”.</p>
<p>The Hanson deal is a measure of Barnett’s desperation. Although Labor has to win ten seats to govern, requiring a uniform swing of 10%, polls have put Opposition Leader Mark McGowan on track for victory. </p>
<p>Barnett attributes his troubles to the longevity of his government, which was elected in 2008, but the state’s economic woes and the budget’s debt and deficit crisis have driven away voters. The end of the mining boom has seen a remarkable turnaround in a state that only a few years ago was riding high on the hog. Hit by job losses and collapsing house prices, many people are in shock.</p>
<p>Barnett’s proposal to privatise 51% of Western Power, the polls and wires network, to help tackle the budget crisis is a hard sell to a sceptical public. </p>
<p>One complication for Barnett is that he has been open about the fact that he would not serve a full term if re-elected. It might be commendable frankness but, for voters, it adds more uncertainty.</p>
<p>If he wins, McGowan’s victory will be largely because people just want to see the end of Barnett, who trails his opponent as preferred premier. It’s not that they hate him, but rather many voters simply think his time is over. </p>
<p>McGowan, a one-time naval lawyer and a former minister, is an experienced and competent technocrat. He mightn’t be very charismatic but still, given the campaign polls, the attempt by former federal minister Stephen Smith (not even a state MP) to replace him in the leadership last year seems even more extraordinary in retrospect than it did at the time.</p>
<p>If Barnett hung on, it would be in minority government, dependent on his alliance partner the Nationals. The dynamics of the now deeply aggrieved Nationals operating in the new government with the Liberals would be fascinating. They would be even more willing than in the past to play tough to get what they wanted.</p>
<p>On Thursday, Nationals leader Brendon Grylls reacted ferociously to Barnett’s plan to save money by cuts to the Nationals’ signature “royalties for regions” program; Grylls described the move as the “final betrayal”.</p>
<p>If McGowan wins, one of his early challenges would be to deal with Canberra and other premiers. He declares he would fight for a better deal on that perennial burr under the saddle for WA – its slice of the GST. This would require persuading fellow first ministers – and when it comes to money, state leaders put aside any fraternal party loyalty in pursuit of their own interest. </p>
<p>Turnbull has threatened that if McGowan as premier tried to dump Barnett’s road infrastructure plan in favour of Labor’s rail scheme, he wouldn’t get promised Commonwealth funding. </p>
<p>A defiant McGowan says Turnbull is bluffing. How does he know? </p>
<p>“If they don’t work with the West Australian government to give us our fair share, the electorates of Pearce, Hasluck, Swan, Canning, Stirling, will be lost to the Liberal Party. Self-interest always wins out and so they will do the right thing – because Christian Porter will be the first one to fall.”</p>
<p><em>This story has been amended to include Thursday’s row over the “royalties for regions” program.</em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Saturday’s Western Australian election will be decided overwhelmingly on state factors but its outcome will rumble into Canberra.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/743102017-03-09T11:50:44Z2017-03-09T11:50:44ZPolitics podcast: WA election – Mark McGowan accuses Turnbull of bluffing<p>The end of the mining boom has hit many people in Western Australia hard, and this has flowed strongly into the election. Debt and deficit are besetting the state budget. In this final podcast from Perth, we talk to economist Alan Duncan about the challenges for the state’s economy and for whoever forms government after Saturday, as WA undertakes a vast transition. </p>
<p>We also interview Opposition Leader Mark McGowan, who goes into the election as favourite. McGowan had much-revered Labor figure Bob Hawke over to help last week. Hawke talked to him about his summit approach to economic policymaking after he was elected prime minister in 1983.</p>
<p>McGowan tells us he wants to be a consensus premier locally, but when he ventured out of his state he would be fighting hard for the interests of WA. </p>
<p>“As a West Australian you put forward a robust case on behalf of your state. We never seem to get any favours out of the Commonwealth. And what we have to do is be absolutely forceful and never, ever give in. And I think that’s the way to treat the federal government – whoever they are,” McGowan says. </p>
<p>If he becomes premier, McGowan would face a hostile upper house, with One Nation holding all or part of the balance of power. </p>
<p>“The way you deal with the upper house, in my experience as a former minister, is you present good legislation and you argue the case. There’s no easy solutions when you have a hostile upper house.”</p>
<p>“I would just hope that One Nation, if they get elected, look at the merits of legislation that comes before them.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74310/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The end of the mining boom has hit many people in Western Australia hard, and this has flowed strongly into the election. Debt and deficit are besetting the state budget.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/741552017-03-08T19:26:05Z2017-03-08T19:26:05ZRoe 8: Perth’s environmental flashpoint in the WA election<p>One of the flashpoints in Saturday’s Western Australian election is the <a href="https://project.mainroads.wa.gov.au/perthfreightlink/Pages/default.aspx">Perth Freight Link</a>, a policy to improve the access for trucks to the port of Fremantle. This includes an extension to Perth’s Roe Highway, known as <a href="https://project.mainroads.wa.gov.au/roe8/Pages/default.aspx">Roe 8</a>. The plan has met with <a href="http://www.rethinkthelink.com.au">years of protests</a> by local government, environmentalists and residents who are concerned about the economic, social and environmental issues associated with the development. </p>
<p>In particular, Roe 8 will cut through the Beeliar Wetlands, home to threatened ecological communities and migratory shorebirds. Labor and the Greens have long opposed this plan and have developed an alternative freight strategy. But this was discarded by the incoming Liberal government led by Premier Colin Barnett in 2008, which reverted to an older plan to extend Roe Highway. </p>
<p>Work has begun on clearing the site. However, a <a href="http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/publications/tabledpapers/aedcd371-17fe-4a86-9a18-9cded8300d78/upload_pdf/PFLreport.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22publications/tabledpapers/aedcd371-17fe-4a86-9a18-9cded8300d78%22">Senate inquiry report</a> released on Tuesday recommended that action be suspended. WA Labor has promised to <a href="https://www.markmcgowan.com.au/freightandtrade">cancel Roe 8 and the Perth Freight Link</a> project, while the Liberal Party is <a href="https://www.waliberal.org.au/latest-news/scrapping-roe-8-will-cost-workers-their-jobs/">holding fast</a> on the issue. </p>
<p>The controversy around Roe 8 has highlighted the lack of effective consideration of biodiversity values, not just at the Beeliar wetlands but across the city.</p>
<h2>Why intact wetlands are important</h2>
<p>In a recent radio interview, <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/moveon-notices-issued-as-protesters-gather-at-roe-8-site-20161206-gt4y8d.html">Premier Barnett</a> stated that Roe 8 “will not damage the environment of the Beeliar Wetlands other than you will see a major road going between two lakes”.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159722/original/image-20170307-14973-1prqu3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159722/original/image-20170307-14973-1prqu3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159722/original/image-20170307-14973-1prqu3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159722/original/image-20170307-14973-1prqu3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159722/original/image-20170307-14973-1prqu3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159722/original/image-20170307-14973-1prqu3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159722/original/image-20170307-14973-1prqu3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159722/original/image-20170307-14973-1prqu3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The proposed extension of the Roe Highway.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Man Roads WA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This displays an ignorance of natural systems. Fragmentation is a serious threat to our remaining biodiversity, along with climate change and declining rainfall. </p>
<p>Wetlands aren’t swimming pools with neatly tiled boundaries. <a href="http://au.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118568230.html">Wetlands function</a> because open water areas are linked to their fringing vegetation and woodlands. This is how pollutants are filtered before the water passes into the lake, how turtles maintain sustainable populations by nesting in woodlands, and how they exchange genetic material with turtles in other wetlands.</p>
<p>Nor is it difficult to enable these linkages. Examples include refitting drains to become living streams, and creating wildlife corridors along road verges with natural vegetation and trees. </p>
<p>It is essential that we retain our few remaining natural assets intact and enhance the connectivity between them. In assessing the Roe 8 proposal, the WA Environmental Protection Authority concluded that <a href="http://www.epa.wa.gov.au/proposals/roe-highway-extension">habitat fragmentation was a major issue</a> of the development and that there was no easy solution to it.</p>
<p>Wetlands have been lost throughout the state. When the WA Environment Protection Authority released its <a href="http://edit.epa.wa.gov.au/AbouttheEPA/SOE/2007/Pages/default.aspx">State of the Environment Report</a> in 2007 it noted that more than 80% of the original wetlands on the Swan Coastal Plain had been lost to development since 1829. Furthermore, it reported that wetland loss was continuing at an average rate of about four hectares (two football fields) each day.</p>
<p>Why is this happening? There are many reasons, but the principal one is a lack of will by the state government to implement its own policies on wetland conservation. The <a href="https://www.planning.wa.gov.au/publications/5911.aspx">Bush Forever Plan</a> – which aims to protect a comprehensive and representative system of Perth’s amazing biodiversity – is still incomplete nearly 20 years after it was drawn up. The government’s draft <a href="https://www.dpc.wa.gov.au/Consultation/StrategicAssessment/Pages/Draft-Green-Growth-Plan-documents.aspx">Green Growth Plan</a> proposes a massive <a href="https://theconversation.com/squandering-riches-can-perth-realise-the-value-of-its-biodiversity-63933">downsizing of the urban conservation estate</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159723/original/image-20170307-14934-1aagvj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159723/original/image-20170307-14934-1aagvj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159723/original/image-20170307-14934-1aagvj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159723/original/image-20170307-14934-1aagvj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159723/original/image-20170307-14934-1aagvj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159723/original/image-20170307-14934-1aagvj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159723/original/image-20170307-14934-1aagvj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159723/original/image-20170307-14934-1aagvj7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Perth’s wetlands are one part of the region’s globally significant biodiversity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jane Chambers</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1997, the Coalition government released a <a href="https://www.dpaw.wa.gov.au/images/documents/about/policy/wetlandspolicy_text.pdf">Wetlands Conservation Policy</a> for WA. It proposed many worthwhile measures, including a policy to protect wetlands from encroachment by urban and industrial development. A draft of this policy was released for public comment in 2005, but it has never been completed or implemented.</p>
<p>WA’s current environment minister, Albert Jacob, has revoked the <a href="http://edit.epa.wa.gov.au/Policies_guidelines/envprotecpol/Pages/1090_EnvironmentalProtectionSwanCoastalPlainLakes.aspx">Swan Coastal Plain Lakes environmental protection policy</a>, which provided some protection to important wetlands. Inappropriate development now threatens many significant wetlands across Perth. </p>
<p>The only remaining protection they have is via <a href="https://www.der.wa.gov.au/our-work/legislative-review-regulatory-reforms/84-environmental-protection-clearing-of-native-vegetation-regulations-2004">clearing regulations</a>, which are intended primarily to manage farming operations. Roe 8 was approved despite the fact that it breached the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-16/perth-wetlands-group-wins-court-challenge-against-roe-8/7033038">EPA guidelines on assessment</a>. The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-15/court-rules-on-roe-8-perth-freight-link-epa-appeal/7631028">state Court of Appeal</a> ruled that the EPA and the government were not obliged to follow these guidelines.</p>
<h2>Global hotspot</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159724/original/image-20170307-14969-ap0ksc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159724/original/image-20170307-14969-ap0ksc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159724/original/image-20170307-14969-ap0ksc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159724/original/image-20170307-14969-ap0ksc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159724/original/image-20170307-14969-ap0ksc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=803&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159724/original/image-20170307-14969-ap0ksc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159724/original/image-20170307-14969-ap0ksc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159724/original/image-20170307-14969-ap0ksc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1009&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hatchling turtles cross woodlands to reach wetland habitats.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jane Chambers</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More broadly, Perth sits in a <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v403/n6772/full/403853a0.html">biodiversity hotspot</a>, one of 25 places globally that together contain nearly half of the world’s wildlife and a third of the plants, but cover less than 2% of the land. They are places with exceptional concentrations of species found nowhere else, which are now seeing exceptional habitat losses. The biodiversity of the Perth region is comparable to that of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-south-west-a-hotspot-for-wildlife-and-plants-that-deserves-world-heritage-status-54885">whole of England</a>*.</p>
<p>The threat to Perth’s biodiversity is illustrated by the plight of the Banksia Woodlands, which once covered much of the Perth area. In September 2016, the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicshowcommunity.pl?id=131&status=Endangered">Banksia Woodlands of the Swan Coastal Plain</a> were listed nationally as an endangered ecological community, particularly due to continuing fragmentation.</p>
<p>With such an internationally recognised threatened treasure on our doorstep you might imagine that environmental protection in Perth would be among the best in the world, but you would be wrong. Instead, valuable ecological communities, fauna and flora are subordinated to short-term commercial and political interests. </p>
<h2>Why should we care?</h2>
<p>For many of us the concept of biodiversity is a pretty abstract one. You can recognise that a rainforest or the Great Barrier Reef is an amazing ecosystem. But how is biodiversity relevant to urban areas?</p>
<p>Access to natural places is <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/12/8/9768">essential for human well-being</a>. Contact with nature has been shown to promote faster recovery from surgery, better pain control, fulfilment of emotional needs, lower self-reported stress, positive moods, increased vitality, reduced depression, prosocial behaviour and healthier family units. Psychological benefits are also higher in areas with greater biodiversity.</p>
<p>You inherently know this to be true. Visualise walking down a crowded city footpath, with traffic banked up among tall city buildings. Now visualise walking down a tree-canopied path with birds singing and the sunlight dappled through leaves. Feel your shoulders drop?</p>
<p>Why are areas of high biodiversity more effective? Because, unlike parks, natural ecosystems have diversity that changes constantly – birdsong and flowers that change with the season, a turtle heading off to nest, or the appearance of tadpoles sprouting legs and becoming frogs. This provides a new experience every time we visit.</p>
<p>If that’s not enough, natural areas like wetlands also provide a suite of “<a href="http://archive.ramsar.org/cda/en/ramsar-pubs-info-ecosystem-services/main/ramsar/1-30-103%5E24258_4000_0__">ecosystem services</a>” that benefit the urban environment. </p>
<p>They improve aesthetics and amenity, increase property values, provide recreational opportunities, remove pollutants from air (by trees) and water (by wetlands and streams), reduce noise and wind, protect us from storm events through flood control, provide climate control (tree canopies reduce temperatures), and offer habitat corridors so you can enjoy birds and wildlife in your backyard.</p>
<p>For our cities to grow sustainably we must have <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-01/greater-urban-infill-and-high-density-living-planned-for-perth/6437608">increased density of housing</a>, but we must also ensure quality of life by including quality public open space. Natural ecosystems need to be sympathetically integrated into urban development, to benefit people and wildlife. </p>
<p><em>*This sentence was corrected on March 9. It previously stated that Perth’s biodiversity is equivalent to the whole of Great Britain.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane Chambers is a member of the Beeliar Group of Professors for Environmental Responsibility.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Jennings is affiliated with the Wetlands Conservation Society and the Cockburn Wetlands Education Centre and the Beeliar Group of Professors for Environmental Responsibility. </span></em></p>With WA’s election looming, Perth’s battle over the Roe 8 highway extension brings other environmental issues to the fore.Jane Chambers, Academic Chair for Environmental Science and Environmental Management and Sustainability, Murdoch UniversityPhilip Jennings, Emeritus professor, Energy studies, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/742632017-03-08T13:26:37Z2017-03-08T13:26:37ZPolitics podcast: WA poll – Kim Beazley on One Nation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159971/original/image-20170308-24201-eugxjt.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1860%2C3024%2C1819&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pat Hutchens/TC</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In our second podcast from the Western Australian election, we talk to Kim Beazley, especially about One Nation. Beazley was federal Labor leader during Pauline Hanson’s first political phase. He sees her as a national security threat and believes she should be opposed in the strongest terms.</p>
<p>“We [in WA] are probably more conscious of southeast Asia. We do more trade with southeast Asia … with Indonesia for example. There’s a strong propensity here to look very seriously at Indonesia. Lots of West Australians holiday in Indonesia … The positions she is adopting pose to seriously damage a critical security and economic relationship. I think quite a lot of West Australians understand that,” he said.</p>
<p>“The rise of One Nation, to my mind, ought to be greeted in much the same way as we greeted [Hanson] back then – to see it disappear as quickly as possible.”</p>
<p>In this podcast, we also visited Rockingham, south of Perth, where we found mixed views about One Nation and more than a little general disillusionment. </p>
<p>Polling analyst William Bowe, who’s been watching the One Nation phenomenon, says their campaign has been “a bit of a shambles”. “I guess the question in this election with respect to how well they’re going to go is: how much does that matter?”</p>
<p>“Given the sort of experience of Donald Trump’s campaign last year, I think there’s an idea that these sorts of populist movements can get away with a great deal.”</p>
<p>Finally, Dexter Davies, federal senior vice-president of the Nationals and a former WA state MP, strongly defends the controversial Nationals proposal for a mining tax on Rio Tinto and BHP, which has triggered a massive campaign from the mining companies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74263/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In our second podcast from the Western Australian election, we talk to Kim Beazley, especially about One Nation.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/741792017-03-07T10:13:46Z2017-03-07T10:13:46ZPolitics podcast: election report from the West<p>In the first of three Conversation podcasts on the Western Australian election, we talk to Natalie Mast at the University of Western Australia, Premier Colin Barnett and ABC election analyst Antony Green. </p>
<p>Saturday’s election potentially carries a hefty national punch. </p>
<p>The polls are running strongly against the Liberal government. If Colin Barnett loses, the federal Liberals will become even more jittery, although the defeat would be due primarily to state factors.</p>
<p>The election will also test the power of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation as a disruptor, with the party set to win state upper house seats. Hanson is on the campaign trail all this week. Her latest provocative comments on immunisation, Vladimir Putin and Muslims – she said on Monday Muslims had changed Australian suburbs – continue to highlight the dubious deal the WA Liberals have done with One Nation on preferences. </p>
<p>The deal has alienated some among both Liberal and One Nation supporters. Barnett is anxious to keep maximum distance from Hanson, insisting the preference swap doesn’t indicate any wider convergence.</p>
<p>He admits that while some people will be unhappy with the deal, “I think overall it will improve the Liberal Party vote. And can I stress there’s no agreement with One Nation. I don’t endorse their policies. I don’t endorse their candidates and there is no agreement about any role in government about legislation or policy.”</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159749/original/image-20170307-14957-lckjeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159749/original/image-20170307-14957-lckjeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159749/original/image-20170307-14957-lckjeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159749/original/image-20170307-14957-lckjeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=846&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159749/original/image-20170307-14957-lckjeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159749/original/image-20170307-14957-lckjeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159749/original/image-20170307-14957-lckjeu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1063&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ABC election analyst Antony Green.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Pat Hutchens/TC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Barnett, who is promising – ambitiously, given the government’s unpopularity – to sell 51% of Western Power, is highly critical of the way the national energy debate has gone. </p>
<p>After saying at a news conference on Tuesday there was no such thing as clean coal, Barnett told The Conversation: “Coal has relatively high levels of emissions. Higher quality coal tends to have lower emissions per unit of energy produced. In Western Australia we have had good long-term policies on natural gas and for a power station of an equivalent size, gas powered generation produces less than half of the emissions of coal. </p>
<p>"So if you want to clean up the energy system in Australia, it seems to me that the bleeding obvious thing to do is to make more use of natural gas in Australia,” he said. </p>
<p>He says he watches “with bewilderment” the national debate on energy policy. “Australia, with its huge natural resources of coal, of natural gas, of uranium and so on, has got itself into an absolute mess over energy policy.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74179/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the first of three Conversation podcasts on the WA election, we talk to Natalie Mast at the University of Western Australia, Premier Colin Barnett and ABC election analyst Antony Green.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/740282017-03-04T06:51:33Z2017-03-04T06:51:33ZElection fever doesn’t grip WA<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159344/original/image-20170304-29039-ng8613.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rebecca Le May</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Alert readers in the eastern states may have heard that their neglected cousins in the West are about to go to the polls. So what, I hear you say. It won’t make much difference at the national level, and the whole business is stupefyingly dull in any case. </p>
<p>You might have a point. But while the various campaigns have been a little underwhelming, and the candidates are somewhat lacking in charisma – a good quality in my view, by the way – the entire process has a wider significance, if only for students of comparative politics.</p>
<p>Disenchantment with democratic politics is a famously global phenomenon. It’s hard to think of a single country where the local political class is not regarded with scepticism or outright contempt. Politicians are routinely regarded as self-interested careerists with little time for, or understanding of, the needs of “ordinary” people.</p>
<p><a href="http://afr.digitaleditions.com.au/olive/ode/afr/">According to a poll</a> published in the Financial Review, Western Australians are no different. No less than 45% of the population described themselves as “fed up with both major parties”. It’s not hard to see why radicals, reactionaries and even racists might flourish in such an environment. </p>
<p>I have always thought that part of Australia’s problem is its antiquated federal system: there are simply too many politicians per person performing overlapping and/or duplicated roles – or doing nothing at all – at enormous and needless expense to the long-suffering taxpayer. And yet given the universal demise of democracy, there’s plainly more going on than just the mediocrity of our local representatives.</p>
<p>Nor is the idea that “they” don’t represent “us” entirely convincing. True, the major parties have to try to appeal to a wide spectrum of beliefs that they can’t hope to satisfactorily represent. But there’s no shortage of niche political products on offer that look to cater for every taste and interest.</p>
<p>The net result is that the traditional parties are losing members to special interests, while the anachronistic idiosyncrasies of our electoral system mean that formerly fringe players can now stop the big parties from actually doing anything. </p>
<p>When the balance of political power is tight – as it always seems to be these days – opportunists, defectors and egoists can add to the picture of dysfunction and incompetence.</p>
<p>WA is no exception to any of this. On the contrary, the political gene pool is a bit on the shallow side. </p>
<p>Whether WA politicians are really that much worse than their counterparts elsewhere is debatable, but what is self-evident is that the much-hyped resource boom <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-australia-provides-a-masterclass-in-what-not-to-do-with-a-resources-boom-67942">has been squandered</a>. WA is also a timely reminder that house prices can go down as well as up.</p>
<p>Perhaps the most interesting feature of this election actually flows from the mining bust. There is a noteworthy spilt within Coalition ranks over how to deal with the overwhelmingly foreign-owned multinationals that dominate the WA economy. </p>
<p>WA Nationals leader Brendon Grylls has bravely broken with his Liberal colleagues – and decades of bipartisan policy – in suggesting that the mining levy paid by Rio Tinto and BHP should be lifted from 25 cents per tonne to A$5.</p>
<p>The reaction of the big miners was entirely predictable: a lavishly funded campaign suggesting that such a tax is unsupportable and unaffordable. But they would say that, wouldn’t they? Such a campaign worked pretty effectively against Kevin Rudd, after all. </p>
<p>Interestingly, despite the miners throwing the political kitchen sink at Grylls, nearly 40% of Western Australians still think it’s a good idea.</p>
<p>Equally interesting has been the reaction of the other parties. The Liberals have criticised Grylls’ policy and even made a groundbreaking preference deal with One Nation ahead of the Nationals in the upper house. Even though the mining boom is over, it seems that Sandgropers are going to have to live with the politics of the <a href="https://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/ross/papers/articles/Ross%20-%20What%20have%20we%20learned%20ARPS%202015.pdf">“resource curse”</a>.</p>
<p>Significantly, WA Labor’s <a href="https://www.markmcgowan.com.au/files/Jobs_policy/WA_Labors_Plan_for_Jobs.pdf">“Plan for Jobs”</a> makes hardly any mention of policy toward the resource industry, despite its dominant position in the state economy. Perhaps this reflects a recognition that the mining sector doesn’t actually employ that many people – especially now the investment phase of development is over. More likely it reflects an unwillingness to risk the same fate as Rudd.</p>
<p>Nobody seems to know who is going to win next week’s election – or whether the outcome will make the slightest difference to the state’s fate. </p>
<p>Mark McGowan looks to have a sporting chance of consigning Colin Barnett to the political scrapheap. He may be doing him a favour: Barnett increasingly comes across as testy and past his use-by date. </p>
<p>I’m a professor of political science and I don’t know if I can be bothered to go and vote. Not a good example to the students, I know. It’s not just the fact my vote won’t be decisive, but that I wouldn’t know who to give it to if I did.</p>
<p>Living in leafy Cottesloe with the premier as my member, I can’t vote for the Nationals even if I wanted to. Where’s the Socialist Workers’ Party when you need them?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74028/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Alert readers in the eastern states may have heard that their neglected cousins in the West are about to go to the polls. So what, I hear you say. It won’t make much difference at the national level, and…Mark Beeson, Professor of International Politics, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/739232017-03-02T11:41:05Z2017-03-02T11:41:05ZGrattan on Friday: The art of walking, forwards and backwards, and some thoughts on Brandis<p>Malcolm Turnbull will overfly Western Australia twice next week, when he makes a brief dash to Indonesia to attend a conference of Indian Ocean Rim leaders.</p>
<p>He has no plans to drop into Perth. <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/second-visit-from-pm-off-libs-agenda-ng-b88395150z">It is reported</a> the local Liberals weren’t much impressed with his one brief sortie into the state campaign.</p>
<p>Is that Tony Abbott smiling through clenched teeth? Remembering how the Western Australian Liberals were cool about his visiting ahead of the 2015 Canning byelection? Turnbull terminated Abbott’s leadership just before those voters got to the polls.</p>
<p>Not that Turnbull’s leadership is under any short-term threat. But he has entered that unfortunate zone when the media read significance into the incidental.</p>
<p>Such as the photo of Peter Dutton, who is suddenly fashionable on the succession ladder, striding out for a morning walk with Finance Minister Mathias Cormann.</p>
<p>The accompanying Courier Mail report said that “key conservative powerbroker Mathias Cormann and Liberal leadership aspirant Peter Dutton have been meeting for secret talks most mornings this week”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"837075612598558720"}"></div></p>
<p>The two were just trying to slim down, Dutton said; Cormann – who called out Abbott in strong language last week–- was decidedly snippy. “Secret talks? Is this a joke? Only in Canberra will some interpret a longstanding early morning (public) exercise routine as a conspiracy.”</p>
<p>Indeed. But in their pally perambulations the pair may lament the government’s bad situation.</p>
<p>Not least, how strips have been torn off it over the decision of the Fair Work Commission to cut Sunday penalty rates in the hospitality, retail, fast food and pharmacy industries.</p>
<p>So much so that Thursday saw Turnbull doing a quick step backwards, as he struggled desperately to neutralise the political damage.</p>
<p>It had become obvious that the government could not protect itself simply by trying to fit up Bill Shorten with the decision, or saying the umpire should be obeyed.</p>
<p>So Turnbull began talking about the “transitional arrangements” to be canvassed at a commission hearing later this month. It asked the government to make a submission, and one is being prepared.</p>
<p>Turnbull said: “We’re very supportive of the commission managing this transition in a way that ensures that take-home pay is, as far as possible, maintained”, while stressing that how the commission protected workers was a matter for it.</p>
<p>Employment Minister Michaelia Cash said: “Nobody in Australia wants to see anybody’s take home pay go backwards”.</p>
<p>If this was where it was going to end up, the government should have started there. It misjudged how deeply this decision, albeit made by the “umpire”, could harm it. Its obsession with Shorten had clouded its view.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Dutton tried to shore up the government’s jobs credentials by announcing a crackdown on the fast-food industry importing foreign workers on 457 visas. “Australian workers, particularly young Australians, must be given priority,” he said. Given that only several hundred workers had come in, the hype seemed a bit of politicking.</p>
<p>“Jobs and growth” has been the Turnbull mantra but this week’s good news on growth – 1.1% in the December quarter – hardly registered politically, drowned out by other issues.</p>
<p>While the penalty rates debate raged in the House of Representatives all week, senators were taken up with estimates hearings. At one of these, Attorney-General George Brandis’s role in the fracas between the federal and WA governments over litigation relating to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-inquiry-into-conduct-of-george-brandis-69566">liquidation of the Bell Group</a> was back in the spotlight. This followed a claim Brandis had been involved in the matter earlier than he’d said.</p>
<p>The Bell affair is subject of a Senate investigation – the second Senate inquiry in which Brandis has featured since the election – reporting on March 21.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/01/28/exclusive-brandis-bound-london-porter-take-attorney-general/14855220004168">Speculation has had it</a> that Brandis will be out of the parliament in coming months, sent as high commissioner to London, paving the way for a reshuffle that could install Christian Porter as attorney-general.</p>
<p>Despite the constant talk it is understood Brandis has not been approached, nor has Alexander Downer, whose London term is up in May, been told anything. It’s not clear that Brandis wants the job.</p>
<p>Whatever the status of the speculation, it would be a very bad idea for Turnbull to despatch Brandis to London.</p>
<p>Let’s deal with the supposed advantages. They are said to be that it would remove an accident-prone minister; that Cormann, close to Turnbull and an excellent negotiator with the crossbench, could be elevated to Senate leader; and that Turnbull could freshen his team.</p>
<p>The first point must be conceded. As for the second, the crossbenchers already deal extensively with Cormann, who is deputy Senate leader. On the reshuffle: if Porter were switched from social services, a complex and sensitive job, to attorney-general, he would be of less value to the government in political terms.</p>
<p>The risks and downsides of giving Brandis the high commission post are obvious.</p>
<p>It would bring Turnbull a storm of criticism. London is a job to which former politicians are, quite reasonably, often sent. But the public’s current mood is deeply cynical, and Brandis is a damaged figure. Labor would have yet another field day.</p>
<p>Brandis is from Queensland, which is vital to the Coalition federally and has an approaching state election with One Nation rampant. Losing Brandis would take a Queenslander out of the cabinet, and the replacement isn’t obvious.</p>
<p>The outer ministry contains no one from Queensland. So to elevate another Queenslander into cabinet, Turnbull would have to reach down into the ranks of the assistant ministers – James McGrath (a mate of Turnbull), Jane Prentice, Karen Andrews, and Keith Pitt (a National, ruling him out).</p>
<p>It would be a big jump for any of the three Liberals. But not to fill Brandis’s cabinet spot with a Queenslander would be seen as a downgrading for the state.</p>
<p>Brandis to London would only harm Turnbull. Anyway, it would be a poor fit – in the post-Brexit era the next high commissioner should have economic and trade skills. Turnbull would do best to leave Brandis where he is for the time being and hold off on a reshuffle while the government tries to get steady on its feet. If it can.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/hb5bg-683276?from=yiiadmin" data-link="https://www.podbean.com/media/player/hb5bg-683276?from=yiiadmin" height="100" width="100%" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" data-name="pb-iframe-player"></iframe>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Malcolm Turnbull will overfly Western Australia twice next week, when he makes a brief dash to Indonesia to attend a conference of Indian Ocean Rim leaders.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/719382017-03-01T02:57:05Z2017-03-01T02:57:05ZWhat would a wise democracy look like? We, the people, would matter<p>All governments would like to overcome impasses caused by contentious issues. Particularly when they turn into a political slanging match, the result is loss of money, time and public trust. </p>
<p>Take the decades-old, contentious dilemma in Western Australia of whether to build the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-11/roe-8-highway-extension-in-western-australia-explained/7923658">Roe 8 highway</a> through the <a href="https://thebeeliargroup.wordpress.com/">Beeliar</a> wetlands to reach Fremantle Harbour, or <a href="https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/greens-back-cockburn-port-ng-b88346805z">build a new harbour</a> in Cockburn, which would involve a different way to transport goods to port.</p>
<p>Communities are at loggerheads. The project affects some positively, some negatively. It’s now a key <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/politics/state/2017/02/18/wa-labor-reaffirms-vow-to-scrap-roe-8.html">issue in the March 11 state election</a>; the incumbent Liberals will construct Roe 8, Labor will not. </p>
<p>Election analyst William Bowe <a href="http://www.afr.com/business/transport/trucking/road-planned-for-50-years-could-cost-west-australian-liberal-premier-colin-barnett-power-20170201-gu2v0o">notes</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s not really clear who it advantages and disadvantages, but it will be a big issue either way.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The democratic problem</h2>
<p>Communities feel like pawns in someone else’s game. What if governments applied more “power with” rather than “power over” the people? What if the people and communities involved learned to co-own the problem, co-design the solution and co-decide what to do?</p>
<p>Democracies everywhere are in trouble. Citizens are increasingly <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-for-the-big-question-who-do-you-trust-to-run-the-country-58723">losing trust</a> in politicians and democratic institutions. Precisely when far-reaching decisions need to be made (on issues such as climate change and inequality), democracies lack the public legitimacy to act effectively. </p>
<p>The political lurch to the right is one response – “we just need a stronger leader” – but this will lead us further away from a strong democracy. Instead, why not re-think and re-invent democracy?</p>
<h2>Creating a wiser democracy</h2>
<p>If democracy is “<a href="https://www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/speeches/gettysburg.htm">government of the people, by the people, for the people</a>”, then a wise democracy would involve the diversity of constituents in collaborative problem-solving, co-deciding and co-enacting ways forward.</p>
<p>This was the <a href="http://www.ancient.eu/Athenian_Democracy/">original democracy in Athens</a> and through Europe in the Middle Ages. Democracy was more than voting for politicians; it was a process for every major, difficult decision.</p>
<p>The appointment of public officials by “lot”, or lottery, was seen to be far superior democratically than by “election”, which was seen to be aristocratic. True, the Athenians limited citizenship to free, adult men, but the range of tasks given to citizens to resolve was remarkably broad. </p>
<p>Confidence was placed in people selected by lottery for at least three reasons. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>First, you got everyday people in the roles of public officials. </p></li>
<li><p>Second, with time and information to resolve an issue, these citizens developed useful solutions.</p></li>
<li><p>And, third, the more you did this, the more people got involved – strengthening democracy.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Nowadays we call this “<a href="http://deldem.weblogs.anu.edu.au/2012/02/15/what-is-deliberative-democracy/">deliberative democracy</a>”. It functions just as effectively today as it did 3,000 years ago (or better, since we no longer limit “citizenship” to adult men). Deliberative democracy stresses that if everyday people think a decision by politicians will affect them, then they should have the right to participate in making that decision.</p>
<p>Participation involves deliberation in an egalitarian and respectful environment. Disparate viewpoints are carefully considered, and a coherent/reasoned way forward is sought.</p>
<p>If all those affected cannot be involved, then a group that mirrors that population needs to be selected – one that is “descriptively representative” of the broader group. The best way to achieve that is via selection by lottery, or random selection.</p>
<p>For public participation in the process to be “meaningful”, governments need to commit to abiding by or being clearly influenced by citizens’ decisions. In short, a deliberative democracy process needs to be representative, deliberative and influential.</p>
<h2>Deliberative democracy works</h2>
<p>Deliberative democracy has been successfully applied across the globe. Examples include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="http://participedia.net/en/methods/participatory-consensus-conferences">The Danish Board of Technology</a> randomly selects citizens to deliberate technological issues involving ethical concerns to help draft legislation.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://participedia.net/en/organizations/world-wide-views-global-warming-overview-and-analysis">World Wide Views</a> randomly selected participants in countries across the globe to deliberate the topic of the forthcoming COP (UN Climate Change Conference), with their combined global report presented to the conference.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158008/original/image-20170223-6426-1nc2hq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158008/original/image-20170223-6426-1nc2hq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158008/original/image-20170223-6426-1nc2hq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158008/original/image-20170223-6426-1nc2hq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158008/original/image-20170223-6426-1nc2hq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158008/original/image-20170223-6426-1nc2hq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158008/original/image-20170223-6426-1nc2hq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158008/original/image-20170223-6426-1nc2hq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=809&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Oregon, a representative panel of citizens assesses proposals to be put to a public ballot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.indivisible.us/oregon-citizens-initiative-review/">healthydemocracy.org</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li><p><a href="http://participedia.net/en/methods/citizens-initiative-review">the Citizens’ Initiative Review</a> in Oregon, US, enables citizens selected by lottery to deliberate to develop the “for” and “against” cases for ballot measures, which are then distributed to voters so they have succinct, useful and trustworthy information.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://participedia.net/en/cases/we-citizens-ireland">Constitutional conventions</a> in Ireland and some European countries apply deliberative democracy processes to resolve constitutional issues.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://www.participatorybudgeting.org/">Participatory budgeting</a> in around 3,000 places across the globe empowers the people to allocate a portion (around 10%) of the budget. With citizens at the helm, community groups develop projects, local citizens vote on their preferred options, and the top priorities within the allocated budget are implemented.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Examples from Australia</h2>
<p>Australia is at the forefront of deliberative democracy reform, though its application has been scattered and not mainstreamed. Examples include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>In Western Australia in the early 2000s, a Labor minister, Alannah MacTiernan, led <a href="http://www.21stcenturydialogue.com/index.php?package=Initiatives&action=Index&static=">pioneering deliberative democracy processes</a> to resolve tough planning and infrastructure issues. These included <a href="http://participedia.net/en/cases/dialogue-city">Dialogue with the City</a>, Australia’s largest deliberation involving around 1,000 people, with continued public participation to develop a plan for the greater Perth metropolis. This was taken to cabinet, was accepted, and is still relevant today.</p></li>
<li><p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/futuretense/citzens-juries-giving-power-to-the-people/5779168">Canada Bay</a>, New South Wales, <a href="http://participedia.net/en/cases/city-greater-geraldton-deliberative-participatory-budget">Greater Geraldton</a>, WA, and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/comment/experiment-pays-off-melbourne-peoples-panel-produces-robust-policy-20150628-ghzoz4.html">Melbourne</a>, Victoria, have pioneered participatory budgeting in Australia. The process empowers a random selection of the people to recommend the allocation of 100% of a city’s budget – operational and/or infrastructure. In each instance, the elected council supported all or most recommendations. Their constituents accepted often difficult decisions on service cuts and infrastructure changes without the usual uproar.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158007/original/image-20170223-6431-1ttz3i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158007/original/image-20170223-6431-1ttz3i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158007/original/image-20170223-6431-1ttz3i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158007/original/image-20170223-6431-1ttz3i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158007/original/image-20170223-6431-1ttz3i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158007/original/image-20170223-6431-1ttz3i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158007/original/image-20170223-6431-1ttz3i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158007/original/image-20170223-6431-1ttz3i3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=563&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Participatory budgeting is a way for citizens – in this case New Yorkers – to help decide government spending priorities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/neotint/6267976938">Daniel Latorre/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<ul>
<li><p>Numerous Australia cities have implemented deliberative democracy initiatives, including issues such as <a href="http://www.newdemocracy.com.au/ndf-work/187-city-of-sydney-safe-vibrant-nightlife">urban planning</a>, <a href="http://www.newdemocracy.com.au/ndf-work/184-moorebank-intermodal-citizens-jury">transport</a>, <a href="http://www.newdemocracy.com.au/ndf-work/287-vichealth-victoria-s-citizens-jury-on-obesity-2015">health</a>, and <a href="http://www.newdemocracy.com.au/ndf-work/316-sa-cj-nuclear-fuel-cycle">waste and the environment</a>.</p></li>
<li><p>Research shows that local people trust the voice of recommendations from randomly selected people who deliberate over time, more than they trust the decisions of elected officials.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>What’s the obstacle to reform?</h2>
<p>So why isn’t deliberative democracy happening more often? Simple. Those in power are wary about sharing their power. </p>
<p>Unlike the Athenians, we don’t believe that every citizen is capable of participating in important decision-making. We assume most people are too self-interested to make decisions for the common good. </p>
<p>However, this is <em>not</em> the case, as deliberative democracy initiatives across the globe have consistently discovered. As the Athenians knew, everyday people can be entrusted to come to wise decisions <em>if</em> they are given comprehensive information and the time to deliberate.</p>
<p>Presumably, the WA election will resolve Roe 8 – for now. However, the cost will be far too high, including the “collateral damage” – environmental, economic, social and political. </p>
<p>What if the issue could have been resolved using “power with” rather than “power over”, with a bipartisan undertaking to abide by the recommendations of a deliberative democracy process? </p>
<p>For instance, 100-plus participants could have been selected by lottery to carefully deliberate over time the diverse viewpoints, the data and the trade-offs, knowing that their participation would be meaningful. By integrating social media and webcasting the deliberations, the process could have enhanced inclusiveness, transparency, public education and social capital. </p>
<p>Instead, we have a lose/lose situation – even the winners will be losers.</p>
<p>Governments for whom democracy equals voting squander their most important asset – public wisdom.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71938/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janette Hartz-Karp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One reason Perth’s Roe 8 project is the subject of passionate protests is that it’s a case of a government asserting power over people rather than exercising power with local communities.Janette Hartz-Karp, Professor, Sustainability Policy Institute, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/718102017-02-16T03:42:35Z2017-02-16T03:42:35ZRoe 8 fails the tests of responsible 21st-century infrastructure planning<p>The <a href="https://thebeeliargroup.wordpress.com/">Beeliar Group</a> of professors formed recently to oppose the building of a new highway, called <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-11/roe-8-highway-extension-in-western-australia-explained/7923658">Roe 8</a>, through an important wetland and woodland regional park in Perth’s southern suburbs. They have joined a very active <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ingredients-for-running-a-successful-environmental-campaign-72371">campaign</a>, adding substance to the <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/roe-8-protests-at-wa-premiers-office/news-story/7d5cc430ac6f45b16472dded96fcc181">passion</a> of community <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/feb/02/its-not-too-late-beeliar-wetlands-activists-fight-on-as-bulldozers-roll-in">activists</a>.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://thebeeliargroup.wordpress.com/">statement</a> by the Beeliar Group explains:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The government’s Roe 8 actions demonstrate the desperate need for scrutiny. They are destructive first steps in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/02/the-perth-freight-link-is-using-public-funds-to-create-two-private-monopolies">poorly conceived</a> <a href="http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-03/roe-8-number-of-trucks-on-road-underestimated-study-suggests/8237076?pfmredir=sm">Perth Freight Link</a> that will lock in a Fremantle container port for 50 years, when a new <a href="http://www.fremantleports.com.au/Planning/Pages/Kwinana-Quay.aspx">harbour at Kwinana</a> was clearly needed and already underway. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/roe-8-reaction-to-the-supreme-courts-decision-on-perths-major-road-project/news-story/77d4fd4e970b1a12d926451066dd8944">environmental assessment process</a> was over-ridden and the conditions associated with construction are constantly being disregarded. Important Aboriginal sites and health impacts were not taken into consideration.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Roe 8 project illustrates all that is wrong with how we are planning and managing infrastructure in our cities. The Beeliar Group suggests the lack of <a href="http://www.curtin.edu.au/research/cusp/local/docs/The-Perth-Freight-Link-fact-and-fiction-.pdf">transparency and accountability</a> for the project points to a government that has lost its sense of responsibility. It’s probably also a result of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-29/roe-8-contracts-to-be-signed-despite-no-environmental-approval/7125972">federal government intervention</a> that upset proper processes of planning. </p>
<p>The highly politicised and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/02/corporate-corruption-and-government-failure-to-act-whos-running-this-country">compromised process</a> is similar to other big road projects across Australia such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/east-west-link-shows-miserable-failure-of-planning-process-40232">East West Link</a> in Melbourne and <a href="https://theconversation.com/modelling-for-major-road-projects-is-at-odds-with-driver-behaviour-63603">WestConnex</a> in Sydney. All arose from the Abbott government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/defying-the-one-hour-rule-for-city-travel-traffic-modelling-drives-policy-madness-53099">interventions</a> in transport infrastructure. </p>
<p>These interventions were highly unusual. The Commonwealth normally assesses and funds but does not suggest specific projects. The desperate activism associated with these three projects suggests we need to avoid such top-down planning. </p>
<h2>What’s the alternative?</h2>
<p>How do we depoliticise infrastructure planning and delivery? What is happening around the world on major infrastructure projects? And what principles and processes can help create infrastructure that satisfies long-term responsibilities?</p>
<p>The problem with freeways is that they create an ever-increasing dependence on cars and trucks. As soon as they are finished, <a href="https://theconversation.com/do-more-roads-really-mean-less-congestion-for-commuters-39508">induced demand</a> leads to <a href="https://theconversation.com/traffic-congestion-is-there-a-miracle-cure-hint-its-not-roads-42753">more congestion</a> and the need for more highway capacity. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/book/7465/">At least 22 cities</a> have now removed freeways. This has happened especially in areas where freeways do most damage – as in the central and inner city, where urban fabrics are built around walking and public transport. Or sometimes freeways are stopped when they have severe impacts on major public open spaces, as Roe 8 does.</p>
<p>Copenhagen <a href="https://islandpress.org/book/cities-for-people">abandoned</a> its American-style freeway plans when it was clear much-loved lakes would be filled in. River frontages in most cities are no longer seen as places to put corridors of bitumen. And hanging over all new infrastructure is the shadow of climate-change responsibilities. </p>
<h2>Restoring principled planning</h2>
<p>How should we proceed in our cities to provide 21st-century mobility? </p>
<p>There are two key principles: the economics of infrastructure should be the basis of assessing value; and partnerships are needed to create value from infrastructure. </p>
<p><strong>Economics</strong></p>
<p>Three core factors create value in a transport infrastructure project: accessibility, amenity and <a href="http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/agglomeration-economies/">agglomeration</a>. Each creates economic value and can be measured – though the really big value happens when they occur together. </p>
<p>In my experience, new urban rail projects generate the most economic value. Road and rail projects that unlock value in freight delivery are also important. </p>
<p>In contrast to Roe 8, building a new outer <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-08-20/kwinana-council-wants-cockburn-sound-outer-harbour-in-10-years/6712050">harbour at Kwinana</a> and redeveloping Fremantle harbour would solve current issues and look to be <a href="http://www.curtin.edu.au/research/cusp/local/docs/FreightPlanForPerth3.pdf">very good economics</a>. The new harbour would create 11,000 direct jobs and A$13.9 billion (net present value) in gross regional product over 20 years. Redeveloping the old harbour would generate 7,265 direct jobs and $4.4 billion.</p>
<p>A range of other benefits would flow on from these projects. These include not having to clear <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/supreme-court-rules-on-fight-to-stop-roe-8-wetlands-extension/news-story/0b1e91fed352c704bac28489538567f9">environmentally sensitive bushland</a> and removing the negative impact of container trucks from the city and suburbs. </p>
<p><strong>Partnerships</strong></p>
<p>The kind of value creation outlined occurs through partnerships between government agencies, the private sector – which usually owns the land and builds the projects – and local communities. </p>
<p>True economic value is created when they put their money, powers and abilities together into one project pot that delivers accessibility, amenity and agglomeration. This did not happen on Roe 8 – it fails on all three parameters – but potentially can happen on the outer harbour. </p>
<p>In the 21st century we need new processes to build these partnerships. The creation of <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/about/role.aspx">Infrastructure Australia</a>, which cut across government agencies and enabled close partnerships with private sector expertise and finance, was a major step forward. It has been <a href="http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/index-eng.html">copied</a> <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/infrastructure-uk">around the world</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.infrastructure.nsw.gov.au/about-us.aspx">Infrastructure NSW</a> followed. It has boosted the state’s infrastructure, particularly by creating public-private partnerships. The model’s potential benefits for other states has led to a <a href="https://www.markmcgowan.com.au/files/Infrastructure_Western_Australia.pdf">proposal for Infrastructure WA</a>.</p>
<p>Such bodies are able to tackle major infrastructure assessments and help develop new ways of creating value through partnerships. However, they need to involve local communities if they are truly going to create local amenity as well as accessibility and agglomeration benefits. </p>
<p>As an example, public transport has developed a market in cities due to its speed and spatial efficiency. But this can only be funded if land developers are brought into partnership with transport providers and government planners as well as local communities. Unlocking the value of land and of reduced car dependence depends on creating such partnerships where governments alone cannot do it. </p>
<p>This is the basis of what we call the <a href="https://theconversation.com/paying-for-infrastructure-means-using-land-value-capture-but-does-it-also-mean-more-tax-58731">Entrepreneur Rail Model</a> for creating and delivering new transport value in cities. This model can help considerably in developing the passenger transport side of the Roe 8 plan rather than an old freeway concept. </p>
<p>Freight needs similar partnerships. A suggested alternative to the Roe 8 and Perth Freight Link is a new set of road and rail links around the city to a new port at Kwinana. The local council and community have strongly <a href="http://indianoceangateway.com.au/">embraced this</a>. </p>
<p>Some facilities have even been built already. This includes a large intermodal terminal as the site has the potential to take large container ships that no other Australian port can manage, then link across the nation through rail lines. This is why the project has been called the <a href="http://indianoceangateway.com.au/">Indian Ocean Gateway</a>. </p>
<p>Such a project would <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/port-report-kwinana-outer-harbour-essential-but-dodges-perth-freight-link-issue/news-story/f16b12b1f552bd4f8d22cfd117f9d8d4">create huge economic value</a>. It cannot be developed, though, without forging new partnerships with the private sector to unlock the possibilities for private finance and public good. </p>
<p>Infrastructure solutions for cities in the next 50 years cannot just continue to be rolled out as they were in the past 50 years. It will be especially dangerous if politicians intervene in favour of old solutions that do nothing to create value.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71810/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman is affiliated with the Beeliar Group – Professors for Environmental Responsibility,</span></em></p>Perth’s Roe 8 project illustrates all that is wrong with how we are planning and managing infrastructure in our cities.Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728632017-02-14T03:02:50Z2017-02-14T03:02:50ZWA state election: Liberals’ deal with One Nation may come back to bite them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/156680/original/image-20170213-25962-155z3xo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">WA Premier Colin Barnett faces a battle to retain office after the March 11 state election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rebecca Le May</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Elections are colourful affairs, and the March 11 state election in Western Australia is no exception. What is bringing particular clamour to this election is the resurgence of One Nation. </p>
<p>Pauline Hanson’s party has certainly made its presence felt. The party is contesting 35 of the state’s 59 Legislative Assembly seats, and fielding 17 candidates across the six upper house regions. According to the polls, it is also the third-largest party in electoral terms. The most recent <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-03/wa-election-newspoll-suggests-one-nation-support-surging/8237172">Newspoll</a> has One Nation’s primary vote at 13%, well ahead of the Nationals (5%) and the Greens (9%).</p>
<p>It is little wonder, then, that the Liberals finally ended speculation by announcing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/one-nation-deal-could-cost-liberal-party-wa-election-joyce-says/8264722">a preference deal</a> with One Nation. The Liberals will direct preferences to One Nation upper house candidates in regional seats. In exchange, One Nation will direct lower house preferences to Liberal candidates ahead of Labor candidates.</p>
<p>While the Liberals’ preference deal with One Nation is the first of its kind since John Howard took the decision as prime minister to place One Nation last on the Liberal how-to-vote card at the 2001 federal election, <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/opinion-liberal-party-too-willing-to-get-into-bed-with-one-nation/news-story/6513ed233569ed0ca712e07b7dd2ca23">it is not likely to be the last</a>. Over the past six months or so, the Liberals’ anti-One Nation resolve has been fraying. </p>
<p>In spite of <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/barnaby-joyce-tells-colin-barnett-that-one-nation-deal-will-put-liberals-out-of-government-ng-b88384335z">catastrophising</a> in some quarters, the preference deal is important for the Liberal-led government’s chances of re-election. The party’s first preference vote is at 30% and its two party preferred vote is 46%. ABC election analyst <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/wa-election-2017/guide/pendulum/.">Antony Green estimates</a> that “a swing of between 2.2% and 10% against the Liberals would produce a minority government”. In the face of a resurgent Labor Party, such a swing is possible.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ partners in government, the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-12/fallout-over-liberal-one-nation-preference-deal-in-wa/8263756">WA Nationals</a>, are the most grievously affected by this deal. Some commentators estimate it could cost them their five upper house seats. </p>
<p>But the Nationals can hardly be surprised by the Liberals’ decision. Although the relationship between the two parties is often civilised, it also has a long history of strife. </p>
<p>In recent years, tensions between the parties were re-ignited when, prior to the 2008 WA election, the Nationals declared they would not be seeking <a href="http://newsweekly.com.au/article.php?id=3619.">a coalition but a partnership</a> with the Liberals.</p>
<p>The Nationals leveraged the fact that neither major party had attained a parliamentary majority to negotiate a deal that provided for 25% of all state royalty payments to be set aside for re-investment into a <a href="http://theconversation.com/brendon-grylls-risks-all-in-battle-for-the-pilbara-12036">royalties for the regions program</a>. While the Nationals eventually agreed to support the Liberals, there was no doubt that the Nationals were seriously entertaining the prospects of doing a parliamentary deal with Labor. </p>
<p>A more traditional coalition arrangement was resumed following the 2013 state election, but the relationship between the two parties showed signs of strain by August 2016. The return of Brendan Grylls – the architect of the 2008 parliamentary agreement – to the Nationals’ leadership, and the unpopularity of the Barnett government, marked the return of a more assertive Nationals party.</p>
<p>Under Grylls’ leadership, the Nationals have been less than willing to commit to a <a href="https://thewest.com.au/politics/state-election-2017/grylls-ponders-second-poll-over-mining-tax-ng-b88379765z">new alliance</a> with the Liberals. Grylls has indicated that support for any minority government would be contingent on the Liberals agreeing to support an increase in the lease rental fee on BHP and Rio Tinto from 25c to $5 a tonne on Pilbara iron ore production. The Liberals oppose this.</p>
<h2>Consequences of the deal for the Liberals</h2>
<p>The preference agreement carries some risk for the Liberals.</p>
<p>It is not entirely clear whether One Nation preferences will flow in a manner consistent with the party’s how-to-vote card. In part this is a question of whether One Nation has the infrastructure to deliver on the agreement. </p>
<p>A successful how-to-vote card strategy requires a party presence at polling booths on election day. The major parties struggle to cover all of their polling booths, so One Nation is likely to struggle too. </p>
<p>There is also a question mark over whether One Nation supporters will actually follow the party’s how-to-vote card recommendations, even if given one. </p>
<p>If the party’s voter base is anything like some of One Nation’s candidates, there is no reason to think that the preference deal will be widely supported. Already one of the party’s highest-profile candidates, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-13/one-nation-candidate-refuses-to-preference-liberals-wa-election/8265354">Margaret Dodds</a>, has rejected the deal on the basis of policy differences with the Liberals and concerns about the lack of consultation over the agreement. </p>
<p>Even if a significant proportion of One Nation preferences help to secure the Liberals’ return to government, the deal will cost the Liberals when the incoming upper house members take their seats in May. </p>
<p>While lower house preference deals are difficult for parties to impose on their supporters, there is greater certainty on preference flows for the upper house. Proportional representation, combined with above-the-line voting, makes it highly likely that most of the Liberal surplus preferences will find their way to One Nation’s upper house candidates. </p>
<p>This greatly increases One Nation’s prospects of holding the balance of power in the Legislative Council. Should this happen, the Liberals’ plans to partially privatise the state’s electricity utility in order to pay down soaring debt will not be realised. One Nation is staunchly opposed to the privatisation.</p>
<p>So while the Liberals’ decision is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-12/liberal-party-one-nation-preferences-possible-sinodinos-says/8263378">“pragmatic and sensible”</a> in the short term, it might seriously compromise the party’s legislative agenda should it be returned to office.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the Liberals’ decision to preference One Nation on how-to-vote cards might be expedient in the short term, it could seriously cost them if they are returned to power.Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728482017-02-12T10:33:12Z2017-02-12T10:33:12ZOne Nation has now been ‘normalised’ in the Liberals’ firmament of political players<p>The decision by the Western Australian Liberals to do a preference deal with One Nation will bring some ripples for Malcolm Turnbull.</p>
<p>The WA Liberals have their backs against the wall – for them it’s a matter of the Barnett government desperately trying to survive against the Labor tide.</p>
<p>The embattled premier, Colin Barnett, said the move was “unusual, but it is a practical, pragmatic decision by the Liberal Party, because what we’re out to do is to retain government”. </p>
<p>And as Liberal senator Linda Reynolds told Sky: “One Nation has got a lot of support here in Western Australia”.</p>
<p>But inevitably, not just because of One Nation’s policies but because of the history of the Liberals’ attitude to the controversial party, the WA embrace will be challenging for Turnbull to handle. When he campaigns in the state poll, he’ll have to deal with questions about it.</p>
<p>The deal harms the WA Nationals who, though a different beast to their eastern cousins, and in an alliance rather than a coalition with the state Liberals, are nevertheless definitely part of the Nationals’ “family”.</p>
<p>Under the deal, as <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/wa-election-2017-wa-liberals-do-preference-deal-with-one-nation/news-story/ace365de8d0807eac963be1449895fef">reported by the WA Sunday Times</a>, the Liberals would preference One Nation above the Nationals in the upper house regional seats, in return for One Nation preferencing against Labor in the lower house. This could cost the Nationals seats and help One Nation to win the balance of power in the upper house.</p>
<p>Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce observed cryptically on Sunday that: “Always as times grow cold … new friends are silver but old friends are gold”. It’s a fair bet it won’t be his last word on the subject. In response to earlier talk of the plan he predicted it would bring “another blue in WA”.</p>
<p>The WA deal will only be the start of the story. In Queensland <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-galaxy-one-nation-surges-to-23-72840">the latest Galaxy poll</a> has One Nation on 23% at state level, with an election likely later this year.</p>
<p>Federally, the Liberals are running the line that Hanson and her party are different these days.</p>
<p>Cabinet minister Arthur Sinodinos told the ABC on Sunday: “They are a lot more sophisticated; they have clearly resonated with a lot of people. Our job is to treat them as any other party.</p>
<p>"That doesn’t mean we have to agree with their policies. When it comes to preferencing, we have to make decisions – in this case a state decision, not a federal decision – based on the local circumstances.”</p>
<p>Compare the tone to Turnbull’s attitude before the federal election when he was asked whether he’d agree Pauline Hanson was a “known quantity in Australian politics” and “can you rule out negotiating or horse-trading with her”.</p>
<p>“Pauline Hanson is, as far as we are concerned, not a welcome presence on the Australian political scene. You’ve got to remember she was chucked out of the Liberal Party,” he said.</p>
<p>As soon as Hanson arrived in parliament with her Senate team Turnbull changed his tune. They had talks. Hanson was chuffed. When Turnbull was recently asked about the mooted WA preference deal he dodged the questioning but did note that federally: “We respect every single member and senator”.</p>
<p>One also has to remember that thanks to Turnbull running a double dissolution, Hanson won four Senate seats and a significant slice of the upper house balance of power.</p>
<p>In an ordinary Senate election she would have ended up with just her own seat. Turnbull would argue the double dissolution has made it easier to get legislation through – even though it is a tortuous process that will bring its failures – but in terms of boosting Hanson’s clout and profile the cost has been significant.</p>
<p>Even if she had had only one Senate seat One Nation might have surged in WA and Queensland, but her federal weight has helped – regardless of the antics of her now ex-WA senator Rod Culleton, who has been tossed out of the parliament.</p>
<p>One Nation, because of its power, has now been “normalised” in the Liberals’ firmament of political players, something likely to stick in the craw of their more “small-l” supporters. The Liberals are afraid of the populist party, but the days of denouncing it holus-bolus are gone. </p>
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The decision by the Western Australian Liberals to do a preference deal with One Nation will bring some ripples for Malcolm Turnbull.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.