tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/adani-44294/articlesAdani – The Conversation2021-11-01T05:01:12Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1658692021-11-01T05:01:12Z2021-11-01T05:01:12ZWhat climate change activists can learn from First Nations campaigns against the fossil fuel industry<p>As the Glasgow climate conference begins, and the time we have to avert a climate crisis narrows, it is time to revisit successful First Nations campaigns against the fossil fuel industry. </p>
<p>Like the current fight to avert a climate catastrophe, these battles are good, old-fashioned, come-from-behind, David-versus-Goliath examples we can all learn from. The <a href="https://commonslibrary.org/the-jabiluka-blockade-22-years-on/">Jabiluka campaign</a> is a good example.</p>
<p>In the late 1990s, a mining company, Energy Resources of Australia, was planning to expand its Kakadu uranium mine into Jabiluka, land belonging to Mirarr Traditional Owners in the Northern Territory. The adjacent Ranger Uranium mine had been operating for 20 years without Traditional Owners’ consent and against their wishes, causing long-term cultural and environmental destruction.</p>
<p>But the expansion of the mine ultimately failed, thanks to an extraordinary campaign by the Traditional Owners, led by Yvonne Margarula and a relative, the lead author of this article, Jacqui Katona (a Djok woman). </p>
<p>In recognition of our work, we shared the 1999 Goldman Environmental Prize, one of the most prestigious international grassroots environmental awards. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two people sit smiling. The photo is in black and white." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429256/original/file-20211029-25-1dtrmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429256/original/file-20211029-25-1dtrmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429256/original/file-20211029-25-1dtrmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429256/original/file-20211029-25-1dtrmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=777&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429256/original/file-20211029-25-1dtrmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429256/original/file-20211029-25-1dtrmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429256/original/file-20211029-25-1dtrmji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=977&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Yvonne Margarula and Jacqui Katona after accepting the Goldman Environmental Prize for grassroots activism, Island Nations 1998.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Provided by author.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The campaign included a huge on-site protest camp, shareholder action and significant overseas support (including from the European Parliament, US Congress and an expert committee to UNESCO). It also included a blockade of the mine site – <a href="https://commonslibrary.org/blockades-that-changed-australia/#Blockades_that_changed_Australia_5_Anti-uranium_mining_Jabiluka_NT_1998">one of the biggest blockades Australia had ever seen</a>. </p>
<p>These are valuable lessons for those wanting to take decisive action against the fossil fuel industry. Here are six ways to learn from our experience:</p>
<h2>1. Put pressure on the financial sector</h2>
<p>Continuous pressure on companies in the financial sector (such as banks), which are complicit in the success of fossil fuel companies, can have an impact. This can be done by exposing their involvement with fossil fuels and pressuring them to be held accountable for these partnerships.</p>
<p>One of the most successful actions of the Jabiluka campaign was the coordination of protests at Westpac, which financed the mine’s owner, Energy Resources of Australia. Not only did protesters raise awareness about Westpac’s investment at local branches, they created bureaucratic chaos by <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/IndigLawB/1999/34.html">opening and closing bank accounts</a>. </p>
<p>This resulted in a <a href="https://www.business-humanrights.org/de/neuste-meldungen/poor-fellow-mining-country/">corporate shift in Westpac</a> towards better accountability on issues affecting First Nations people. Coordinated protests like this are an effective way to empower people to participate in positive action for change.</p>
<p>Similar protests, strategic litigation and investor campaigns have also effectively disrupted the Adani mining project in Queensland, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/adani-coal-contractor-asks-australian-government-insurance-help-2021-05-13/">including making financing and insurance for the project very difficult</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1408565928653033472"}"></div></p>
<h2>2. Join a strong organisation or alliance</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/native-title-and-australias-resource-boom-a-lost-opportunity-2725">First Nations campaigns</a> against mining and other fossil fuel companies show the single most important factor in successful protests is leadership by politically powerful organisations or alliances. </p>
<p>In the Jabiluka campaign, <a href="https://www.goldmanprize.org/recipient/jacqui-katona-yvonne-margarula/">Katona and Margarula</a> were successful in large part because of their insistence on a Mirrar-led campaign forming strong alliances with powerful unions, environmental groups and other national and international organisations. </p>
<h2>3. Hit them where it hurts: the hip pocket</h2>
<p>The Mirarr’s successful campaign was one of the first to use shareholder activism, and it worked. The campaigners engaged in two years of activism against Energy Resources of Australia, including <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361140701513604?scroll=top&needAccess=true">forming a group of shareholders who lobbied within the project for protesters’ demands</a>. </p>
<p>In that time, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10361140701513604">the share price of Energy Resources of Australia fell from more than A$6 to less than A$2</a>. This forced the company to hold an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10361140701513604?scroll=top&needAccess=true">where representatives of the lobbying group</a> were present. </p>
<p>Shareholders were then able to have some influence over corporate responsibility and accountability, including the appointment of a sustainable development manager. While the government ultimately <a href="http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/AUMPLawAYbk/2006/13.pdf">amended the Corporations Act</a> to make such actions more difficult, this nevertheless shows that creative direct action can be successful in holding corporations accountable.</p>
<h2>4. Win over the right people</h2>
<p>When Rio Tinto detonated 46,000-year-old rock shelters at Juukan Gorge on the traditional land of the Puutu Kunti Kurrama and Pinikura peoples last year, it was not only public outcry that led to the resignation of three senior executives, including the chief executive.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/australiansuper-says-rio-tinto-punishment-falls-short-20200826-p55phz">Pressure also came from investor groups</a>, including major Australian super funds, and the media over the perceived lack of accountability. </p>
<h2>5. There’s never a perfect time to act</h2>
<p>Katona led the Jabiluka campaign while a mother to two small children, juggling local work with international activism. She was jailed for trespassing on Aboriginal land. She was hospitalised with complications from lupus, which required a long recovery. </p>
<p>Be strategic about your participation in high-energy campaigns and find ways to support the efforts of key activists. But also know the fight against the fossil fuel industry takes more effort than just changing your social media profile picture. </p>
<p>There is no perfect time, or single solution, to campaigning for a better future. The power of people is a resource which often delivers inspiration to disrupt and needs to be nurtured.</p>
<h2>6. Believe you can win</h2>
<p>Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities have faced hundreds of years of colonisation, industrial desecration of their sacred lands, and destruction of their Country. However in many cases, they have won battles against the odds. </p>
<p>The Mirrar faced a discriminatory system which sidelined their interests in Kakadu for more than 20 years. But they continued their fight to protect Country, and ultimately succeeded in preventing Jabiluka’s expansion. </p>
<p>So take heart and don’t give up. This is a fight that can be won.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lily O'Neill is a Research Fellow on the Zero-Carbon Energy for the Asia-Pacific Grand Challenge Project, funded by the Australian National University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jacqui Katona does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the late 1990s, a mining company was planning to expand its Kakadu uranium mine into Jabiluka land. But the expansion ultimately failed, thanks to Yvonne Maragula and Jacqui Katona.Jacqui Katona, Lecturer, Victoria UniversityLily O'Neill, Research Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1696342021-10-22T00:04:41Z2021-10-22T00:04:41ZWhen native title fails: First Nations people are turning to human rights law to keep access to cultural sites<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426833/original/file-20211018-23-10mzbn9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For over six weeks, Wangan and Jagalingou Traditional Owners have been performing continuous cultural ceremony at the edge of Adani’s Carmichael mine in central Queensland.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Leah Light Photography</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a shift from their usual conduct, Queensland police have recognised the cultural rights of Wangan and Jagalingou cultural custodians to conduct ceremony under provisions of the 2019 Queensland Human Rights Act. </p>
<p>Because of this act, the police were able to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/03/queensland-police-refuse-to-remove-traditional-owners-occupying-adanis-coalmine-site">refuse</a> to action a complaint from Adani to remove Wangan and Jagalingou cultural custodians camping on their ancestral lands adjacent to the Adani coal pit.</p>
<p>The police also issued a “<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/article/2021/07/09/queensland-police-regret-interrupting-traditional-owners-ceremony">statement of regret</a>” for removing the group several months earlier. </p>
<p>The ceremonial grounds are on highly contested land that has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-people-no-longer-have-the-legal-right-to-say-no-to-the-adani-mine-heres-what-it-means-for-equality-122788">granted to Adani’s Carmichael coal mine</a> by the state government. </p>
<p><a href="https://nit.com.au/wangan-and-jagalingou-native-title-extinguished-to-make-way-for-adani/">In August 2019</a>, Adani was granted freehold title over critical infrastructure areas of the Carmichael mine site by the Queensland government, without first notifying the Wangan and Jagalingou peoples.</p>
<p>This <a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-people-no-longer-have-the-legal-right-to-say-no-to-the-adani-mine-heres-what-it-means-for-equality-122788">extinguished their native title</a> over the site, affecting a number of peoples including the Juru, Jaang and Birrah, as well as the Wangan and Jagalingou.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426829/original/file-20211018-19-1w5r3pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Wangan and Jagalingou Traditional Owners maintaining presence at the Carmichael mine in central Queensland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426829/original/file-20211018-19-1w5r3pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426829/original/file-20211018-19-1w5r3pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426829/original/file-20211018-19-1w5r3pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426829/original/file-20211018-19-1w5r3pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426829/original/file-20211018-19-1w5r3pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426829/original/file-20211018-19-1w5r3pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426829/original/file-20211018-19-1w5r3pd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police officers told the group of Wangan and Jagalingou Traditional Owners they recognise their cultural rights to conduct ceremony under provisions of the 2019 Queensland Human Rights Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Leah Light Photography</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why was practising cultural ceremony so controversial?</h2>
<p>Over the past six weeks, Jagalingou cultural custodians have been conducting the Waddananggu ceremony, translated to English as “The Talking”. Describing the ceremony, Cultural Custodian Coedie McAvoy has <a href="https://standing-our-ground.org/2021/09/01/waddananggu-the-talking/">said</a></p>
<blockquote>
<p>We have set up a stone Bora ring and ceremonial ground opposite Adani’s mine and are asserting our human rights as Wangan and Jagalingou people to practice culture.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Since the leases were granted to Adani, police have repeatedly removed the Wangan and Jagalingou people from their traditional lands when conducting ceremonies. They have also been accused by journalists of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/25/french-journalists-bail-conditions-after-adani-arrest-labelled-abuse-of-police-power">acting as a “shield” </a>to Adani’s corporate interests. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/nitv-news/article/2016/10/26/adanis-carmichael-coal-mine-story-so-far">Adani’s proposed Carmichael open-cut and underground coal mine</a> in the Galilee Basin in Central Queensland covers 200 square kilometres of land. </p>
<p>If built, it will be Australia’s largest and the world’s second largest coal mine. The project includes the construction of a 189-kilometre rail connection between the proposed mine and the Adani-operated Abbot Point Terminal adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef.</p>
<p>The proposed mining and railway developments encompass much of the Wangan and Jagalingou ancestral lands.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/protest-art-rallying-cry-or-elegy-for-the-black-throated-finch-120593">Protest art: rallying cry or elegy for the black-throated finch?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What led to the change in police attitudes?</h2>
<p>Cultural Leader Adrian Burragubba brought a complaint to the <a href="https://www.qhrc.qld.gov.au/your-rights/for-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-people">Queensland Human Rights Commission</a> after police broke up a Wangan and Jagalingou ceremonial campsite in August 2020. The complaint resulted in mediation between the police and Burragubba on behalf of his family and community over March to July of this year.</p>
<p>One outcome of the mediation was the Queensland police’s “statement of regret”, in which Assistant Commissioner Kev Guteridge said police recognise that Burragubba represents a group of traditional owners “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/13/queensland-police-regret-making-indigenous-leader-leave-adani-mine-site-during-protest">aggrieved by Adani’s occupation of the land</a>”, adding:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We acknowledge that the incident on 28 August, 2020, was traumatic for Mr Burragubba and his extended family, and caused embarrassment, hurt and humiliation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/13/queensland-police-regret-making-indigenous-leader-leave-adani-mine-site-during-protest">The Guardian</a>, Burragubba is thought to be the first Indigenous person to extract a public apology from a state agency since the enactment of the Queensland Human Rights Act.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.qhrc.qld.gov.au/your-rights/human-rights-law/cultural-rights-of-aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-peoples#:%7E:text=Section%2028%20of%20the%20Human,peoples%20hold%20distinct%20cultural%20rights.&text=to%20conserve%20and%20protect%20the,coastal%20seas%20and%20other%20resources.">Section 28</a> of the Act recognises Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples hold distinct cultural rights as Australia’s First Peoples:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>They must not be denied the right, with other members of their community, to live life as an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person who is free to practice their culture. </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426841/original/file-20211018-20-1ogl79o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An Aboriginal person painted up, stands under a flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426841/original/file-20211018-20-1ogl79o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/426841/original/file-20211018-20-1ogl79o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426841/original/file-20211018-20-1ogl79o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426841/original/file-20211018-20-1ogl79o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426841/original/file-20211018-20-1ogl79o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426841/original/file-20211018-20-1ogl79o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/426841/original/file-20211018-20-1ogl79o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Leah Light Photography</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is modelled on <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/ccpr.aspx#:%7E:text=Article%2027,to%20use%20their%20own%20language.">article 27</a> of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and Articles 8, 25, 29 and 31 of the 2007 <a href="https://apo.org.au/node/246496">United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples</a>. </p>
<p>The inclusion of this section is significant given <a href="https://www.reconciliation.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Reconciliation-Australia-United-Nations-Declaration-on-the-Rights-of-Indigenous-Peoples-UNDRIP.pdf">Australia endorsed</a> the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples in 2009. Australia is yet to implement the declaration into law, policy or practice at a federal level.</p>
<p>The Greens senator Lidia Thorpe <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-18/juukan-gorge-report-tabled-in-parliament-canberra/100542640">said</a> the inquiry’s recommendation of “free, prior and informed consent” did not go far enough to protect traditional owners.</p>
<p>Burragubba’s complaint under the Queensland Act was likely strengthened by the Wangan and Jagalingou peoples’ ongoing legal assertion of native title. <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/nta1993147/s44b.html#:%7E:text=Rights%20of%20access%20for%20traditional%20activities,-Conferral%20of%20rights&text=To%20avoid%20doubt%2C%20the%20existence,native%20title%20rights%20or%20interests.">44b of the Native Title Act</a> confers rights of access for traditional activities to a native title claim group. </p>
<p>This legal principle of “right of access” was bolstered by the findings in the case of <a href="https://www.mondaq.com/australia/indigenous-peoples/302358/an-odd-couple-mining-leases-and-native-title-can-coexist--western-australia-v-brown-2014-hca-8">Western Australia v Brown, 2014</a>, which confirmed title was not wholly extinguished by the lease of land as long as native title is “not inconsistent with the lease”. </p>
<h2>The significance of this police action could be far reaching</h2>
<p>The new respect shown by Queensland police for the cultural rights of the Wangan and Jagalingou will not reinstate Wangan and Jagalingou native title. Nor will it stop the Adani mine. </p>
<p>But it means the Wangan and Jagalingou can continue to practice culture on Country, as they have for thousands of years, instead of being treated “<a href="https://overland.org.au/previous-issues/issue-240/feature-when-i-speak-i-speak-for-the-land/">like trespassers on their own land</a>”. Their living connection to Country is not broken by the lease of land to Adani. </p>
<p>For Adani, it means the Wangan and Jagalingou people are an ongoing presence: a public reminder of cultural claim over the land where the mine is situated. </p>
<p>For the police, the significance goes beyond the struggle over the Adani mine. This change in police conduct could mark the end of police complicity in removing First Nations people from their ancestral land in the state of Queensland. Other state agencies will now also be forced to take the cultural rights of First Nations custodians seriously.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-listened-to-the-science-on-coronavirus-imagine-if-we-did-the-same-for-coal-mining-138212">Australia listened to the science on coronavirus. Imagine if we did the same for coal mining</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It is an important step on a national journey towards recognition of First Nations’ cultural rights. Like the Queensland Human Rights Act, <a href="https://www.humanrights.vic.gov.au/resources/aboriginal-cultural-rights/#:%7E:text=The%20Charter%20protects%20Aboriginal%20Cultural,their%20traditional%20lands%20and%20waters.">Victoria</a> and the <a href="https://hrc.act.gov.au/humanrights/aboriginal-torres-strait-islander-cultural-rights-under-the-act-human-rights-act/#:%7E:text=Dr%20Watchirs%20Biography-,Aboriginal%20%26%20Torres%20Strait%20Islander%20cultural%20rights%20under%20the%20ACT%20Human,people%20who%20work%20for%20them.">ACT </a>also enshrine human rights in state law, providing legal avenues validating cultural practice on Country against public authorities. If the federal government adopts the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-18/juukan-gorge-report-tabled-in-parliament-canberra/100542640">findings of the parliamentary inquiry into the destruction of the Juukan Gorge rock shelters</a>, handed down earlier this week, First Nations’ cultural rights will be further protected. </p>
<p>The Inquiry committee <a href="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/?ogbl#inbox/FMfcgzGlkXsfQKDmgPHBVcBBmzbvMKTj">recommended</a> new Commonwealth legislation for stricter protection of sacred sites, and improvements to the Native Title Act. The committee has said new legislation should be underpinned by the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.</p>
<p>The practice of Waddananggu is significant for the whole country. It is an opportunity for all of us to respectfully witness, talk and learn towards meaningful reconciliation. </p>
<p>McAvoy issued a broad invitation to <a href="https://standing-our-ground.org/2021/09/01/waddananggu-the-talking/">the</a> Waddananggu: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Stand with us to protect our human rights to practice ceremony and culture, and protect our homelands. ngali yinda banna, yumbaba-gi. We need you, to be heard.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: this article originally stated the Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples was endorsed in 2019, this has been amended.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shelley Marshall owns shares in mining and resources through her superannuation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Suzi Hutchings has met Adrian Burragubba at an RMIT conference on Activism at which he gave a keynote presentation. Suzi owns shares in mining and resources through her superannuation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carla Chan Unger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recently Queensland police recognised the cultural rights of Wangan and Jagalingou people to conduct ceremony under provisions of a Human Rights Act. What does this mean for other Traditional Owners?Shelley Marshall, Associate Professor and Director of the RMIT Business and Human Rights Centre, RMIT UniversityCarla Chan Unger, Research Associate, RMIT UniversitySuzi Hutchings, Associate Professor, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1660232021-08-19T19:50:32Z2021-08-19T19:50:32ZCan a polite sign lead to political change? What kinds of protest work?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416162/original/file-20210815-15-1rlgwc4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison recently <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-14">gave reporters</a> in Canberra a “lesson” in what kinds of protest he thinks work best. </p>
<p>Last week, he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/12/im-listening-to-her-meet-scott-morrisons-favourite-climate-change-protester">condemned</a> Extinction Rebellion protesters who sprayed graffiti on Parliament House and the Lodge, set fire to a pram and superglued themselves to the ground, demanding more action on climate change. Morrison <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-canberra-act-14">described</a> this as “foolishness” and not the “Australian way”. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>That is not the way we go forward. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the same breath, he praised the efforts of a woman — Frances — who holds a “strong climate target = strong economy” placard outside parliament (incidentally, she is also an Extinction Rebellion member). </p>
<blockquote>
<p>She’s there almost every morning and she makes this point every day, and she gives me a wave and she gives me a smile. I’ll tell you what, I’m listening to her.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Without diminishing Frances’ efforts, evidence around what form of protest is most effective in promoting social and political change suggests disruptive protests tend to be the game changers once avenues for polite protest prove ineffective. </p>
<h2>Disruptive protests</h2>
<p>Disruptive protests are broadly defined as actions aimed at stopping or delaying a controversial activity. Violent protest is rare in Australia, especially in relation to environmental protests, so here we are really talking about non-violent disruptive protest, often called “non-violent direct action”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Climate change graffiti is cleaned off the walls of parliament house." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416163/original/file-20210815-20-1e4czx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416163/original/file-20210815-20-1e4czx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416163/original/file-20210815-20-1e4czx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416163/original/file-20210815-20-1e4czx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416163/original/file-20210815-20-1e4czx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416163/original/file-20210815-20-1e4czx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416163/original/file-20210815-20-1e4czx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change protesters sprayed messages on parliament house with the release of the latest IPCC report.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most familiar forms of disruptive protest are physically disruptive protests such as blockades, sit-ins, <a href="https://theconversation.com/lock-on-devices-are-a-symbol-of-non-violent-protest-but-they-might-soon-be-banned-in-queensland-122472">lock-ons</a>, and graffiti. More recently, less physical and more sophisticated forms of disruptive protest can include <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/10.3316/INFORMIT.794791944567735">corporate campaigns</a> targeting consumers, investors and businesses, or campaigns that involve strategic litigation.</p>
<p>If we think back on the big successful social movement campaigns — the suffragettes, civil rights movement in the United States, 1966 <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/wave-hill-walk-off">Wave Hill station walk off</a> led by Vincent Lingiari and <a href="https://aiatsis.gov.au/explore/1965-freedom-ride">Freedom riders</a> in Australia, Vietnam war opposition, <a href="https://www.naa.gov.au/learn/learning-resources/learning-resource-themes/environment-and-nature/conservation/protesting-franklin-dam">Franklin River protests</a> and the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-20/bentley-history/5463800">Bentley blockade</a> that <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/dean-sewell-20141224-12dgdr.html">stopped fracking</a> in the Northern Rivers of NSW in 2014 — they all involved disruptive protests.</p>
<h2>The power of disruption</h2>
<p>Social movements <a href="https://www.proquest.com/docview/222295280">aim</a> to alert, educate and inspire the population while putting pressure on power-holders to give in to their demands for change. Disruptive protests can be the spark that gains attention, stops destructive work and ignites political pressure. </p>
<p>In the first instance, disruptive campaigns are designed so that the action has an impact in its own right. For example, a blockade might stop environmental destruction. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lock-on-devices-are-a-symbol-of-non-violent-protest-but-they-might-soon-be-banned-in-queensland-122472">'Lock-on devices' are a symbol of non-violent protest, but they might soon be banned in Queensland</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The process of disruption then becomes newsworthy and stimulates further debate and political pressure. In the case of corporate targets, disruptive protest may focus unwanted attention on the company’s practices. In the case of a government target, it will focus attention on policies or behaviours that protestors believe need to change. </p>
<p>More passive forms of protest (writing letters, signing petitions, talking to politicians, building community support) can work with or without disruptive tactics. But they often require many years of campaigning to produce the groundswell necessary to achieve change. Australia’s <a href="https://voteyes.org.au">marriage equality</a> campaign is a good example of a successful long campaign of this kind. </p>
<h2>Why you need more than graffiti</h2>
<p>It would be a mistake, however, to think disruptive protests by themselves bring about social change — the process is more complex than that. </p>
<p>Non-violent direct action is <a href="https://aidanricketts.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/LR12018_Article03_Kia.Ricketts.pdf">most powerful</a> when it is integrated within an intelligent social movement campaign that is reaching out to the public with accurate information, coherent framing of the issue and ready to apply political pressure when the opportunity arises.</p>
<p>The rolling <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/we-want-them-out-traditional-owners-block-road-to-adani-coal-mine-in-central-queensland/dd290c67-5b70-418d-a537-4e5ce3bc4b73">protests</a> as part of the campaign against the Adani mine are a good example of direct action.</p>
<h2>The hazards of being too disruptive</h2>
<p>Politicians don’t like to admit that disruptive protest can lead to political change. Our leaders obviously have an interest in maintaining their authority, and not giving the impression that protesters have power and influence. </p>
<p>There is a need to be cautious, though. Disruptive protest works best when it disrupts the target activity itself, and less well when it disrupts the lives of ordinary citizens. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Animal rights activists block a Melbourne CBD intersection in 2019." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416164/original/file-20210815-17-1im533r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416164/original/file-20210815-17-1im533r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416164/original/file-20210815-17-1im533r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416164/original/file-20210815-17-1im533r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416164/original/file-20210815-17-1im533r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416164/original/file-20210815-17-1im533r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416164/original/file-20210815-17-1im533r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Blocking traffic or hassling everyday citizens does not tend to build public support for a campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ellen Smith/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, in Australia, blocking roads and intersections by some environmental or <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-08/melbourne-vegan-protest-blocks-trams-traffic-causes-chaos/10980056">animal rights groups</a> has not resulted in winning hearts and minds. </p>
<p>It’s also worth noting that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/25/covid-sydney-police-punish-anti-lockdown-protesters">anti-lockdown protests</a> during COVID are not gaining widespread support. This is because they are about hyper-individualist demands, rather than society-wide needs. </p>
<h2>The ‘scream test’</h2>
<p>We can also find out what works by looking at the “scream test” — or how much governments and corporations react to protesters. In recent years, those screams have manifested as a slew of anti-protest laws. This follows sustained activism against the mining industry in particular.</p>
<p>While Morrison may laud protesters that he can wave to from the safety of his Comcar window, his government has been very active in opposing effective forms of protest.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-protesting-during-the-pandemic-an-essential-right-that-should-be-protected-136512">Is protesting during the pandemic an 'essential' right that should be protected?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In recent years, federal legislation has restricted non-government organisations that rely on tax deductible donations from engaging in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/may/28/australian-government-crackdown-on-charities-will-stifle-political-advocacy-experts-say">political advocacy</a>. These are pointedly intended to restrict anti-mining groups like <a href="https://probonoaustralia.com.au/news/2017/07/charity-defends-dgr-status-champion-environment-democracy/">Lock the Gate</a>, but also inhibit the advocacy work of charities such as <a href="https://www.vinnies.org.au/page/Publications/National/Submissions/Charity_sector_reform/Response_to_Tax_Deductible_Gift_Recipient_Reform_Opportunities_Discussion_Paper/">St Vincent de Paul</a>. In 2019, a new law was introduced, preventing protesters from using social media to organise gatherings that <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/legislation/bills/r6351_aspassed/toc_pdf/19117b01.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf">disrupt certain kinds of businesses</a>. </p>
<p>In 2018, parliament passed <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/bd/bd1718a/18bd069">legislation to restrict satirical parodies</a> of government policy such as Juice Media’s popular <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNIYL5x1oy0">honest government ads</a>. </p>
<p>Legislation has also been suggested to prevent environmental groups from <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/pitt/media-releases/inquiry-put-spotlight-financial-sectors-treatment-resources">campaigning</a> to stop financial institutions from investing in fossil fuel and limiting environmental groups from taking mining and forestry companies <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/AIAdminLawF/2017/29.pdf">to court</a>. </p>
<h2>Legal backlash</h2>
<p>At the state level, following the Bentley blockade, the NSW government introduced legislation to increase fines for protests that disrupt business and the possibility of jail terms for <a href="https://www.nswccl.org.au/_anti_protest_bill_explained">mining and fracking protests</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An anti-coal banner is hung by activists at federal parliament in 2018." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416165/original/file-20210815-19-1271apk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/416165/original/file-20210815-19-1271apk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416165/original/file-20210815-19-1271apk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416165/original/file-20210815-19-1271apk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416165/original/file-20210815-19-1271apk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416165/original/file-20210815-19-1271apk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/416165/original/file-20210815-19-1271apk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Federal and state governments have been moving to crack down on protests in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lock-on devices have also been a target of anti-protest laws, with specific legislation introduced in <a href="https://theconversation.com/lock-on-devices-are-a-symbol-of-non-violent-protest-but-they-might-soon-be-banned-in-queensland-122472">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/10.3316/informit.251332907337322">NSW</a>. Tasmania introduced some of the most severe anti-protest laws in 2014. These were struck down by the High Court in 2017, because it <a href="https://www.hrlc.org.au/human-rights-case-summaries/2017/12/14/high-court-of-australia-strikes-down-tasmanias-anti-protest-laws">found</a> they breached the constitutionally implied freedom of political communication.</p>
<p>If we want to know what kinds of protests work, we need to follow the backlash, rather than the kinds of protest the the prime minister would prefer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166023/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aidan Ricketts is a participatory action researcher who has worked with many protest organisations in the past including North East Forest Alliance and Lock the Gate and Gasfield Free Northern Rivers
Aidan is also an ordinary member of the Greens NSW.</span></em></p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he is ‘listening’ to a woman quietly holding a climate action sign outside parliament. But politicians have a vested interest in downplaying disruptive protests.Aidan Ricketts, Lecturer, School of Law and Justice, Southern Cross UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1523182021-01-07T19:22:56Z2021-01-07T19:22:56ZEthical minefields: the dirty business of doing deals with Myanmar’s military<p>Myanmar’s transition from five decades of military rule is a work in progress. </p>
<p>Despite the junta’s formal dissolution in 2010, the release of political prisoners including opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and democratic reforms allowing National League Democracy to win government in 2015, the military (officially known as the Tatmadaw) retains huge political and economic power.</p>
<p>A quarter of parliamentary seats are reserved for military appointees. The Tatmadaw also controls several major commercial conglomerates with disproportionate economic influence, having prospered through years of cronyism and corruption.</p>
<p>The severe international sanctions imposed on Myanmar during junta rule have been lifted. However, United Nations human rights advocates have warned against doing business with the Tatmadaw due to its human rights atrocities. </p>
<p>Several reports in the past month suggest foreign companies are failing to take that direction seriously. </p>
<p>Two British banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered, have reportedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/20/british-banks-under-pressure-over-45m-loans-to-firm-with-links-to-myanmar-military">lent US$60 million</a> to a Vietnamese company building a mobile network in Myanmar. The Tatmadaw-controlled Myanmar Economic Corporation owns 28% of the network, known as Mytel. An Israeli technology company, Gilat Satellite Networks, has also reportedly been <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/myanmar-activists-accuse-israeli-firm-of-abetting-militarys-rohingya-atrocities/">doing business with Mytel</a>.</p>
<p>The Australian government has also been indirectly implicated. Its Future Fund has invested <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-16/future-fund-invests-millions-in-adani-project/12984734">A$3.2 million</a> (about US$2.5 million) in a subsidiary of Indian multinational Adani, which is doing business with the Myanmar Economic Corporation.</p>
<p>The subsidiary,
<a href="https://www.adaniports.com/-/media/Project/Ports/Investor/corporate-governance/Corporate-Announcement/other-intimation--1/27523052019Media-Release.pdf?la=en">Adani Ports and Special Economic Zones</a>, is funding the rail link to connect Adani’s controversial Carmichael coal mine in Queensland to a port on the Great Barrier Reef. It is also building a <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/transportation/shipping-/-transport/adani-ports-to-set-up-first-container-terminal-outside-india-in-myanmar/articleshow/69461515.cms?from=mdr">container port</a> near Yangon on land <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/news/new-yangon-port-be-constructed-trade-volumes-rise.html">owned by the Myanmar Economic Corporation</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/myanmar-weak-leadership-is-prompting-grassroots-activists-to-make-a-difference-150105">Myanmar: weak leadership is prompting grassroots activists to make a difference</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>War crimes and other atrocities</h2>
<p>The United Nations’ call to avoid doing business with the Tatmadaw stems from its 2016 operations against the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, the separatist Islamist insurgency based in the western state of Rakhine. </p>
<p>Rahkine is about one-third Muslim, mostly <a href="https://minorityrights.org/minorities/muslims-and-rohingya/">ethnic Rohingya</a>, a group with its own distinctive culture and language. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377487/original/file-20210107-17-1ydi70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377487/original/file-20210107-17-1ydi70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/377487/original/file-20210107-17-1ydi70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377487/original/file-20210107-17-1ydi70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377487/original/file-20210107-17-1ydi70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=849&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377487/original/file-20210107-17-1ydi70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377487/original/file-20210107-17-1ydi70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/377487/original/file-20210107-17-1ydi70o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1067&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The red dots show villages destroyed in Rakhine during October and November 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/12/18/burma-40-rohingya-villages-burned-october">Human Rights Watch</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The crackdown quickly deteriorated into a human rights crisis. About 350 Rohingya <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/12/18/burma-40-rohingya-villages-burned-october">villages were destroyed</a>, according to Human Rights Watch. Hundreds of thousands fled to Bangladesh. (Hundreds of thousands were already living in refugee camps due to past persecution.)</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=23575&LangID=E">March 2017</a> the United Nations Human Rights Council appointed an <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/MyanmarFFM/Pages/Index.aspx">independent fact-finding mission</a> to investigate allegations of atrocities. The mission included former Australian Human Rights Commissioner Chris Sidoti, former Indonesian prosecutor general Marzuki Darusman and Sri Lankan human rights advocate Radhika Coomaraswamy. </p>
<p>They <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=23575&LangID=E">published their first full report</a> in September 2018. Detailing the killing of thousands of Rohingya civilians, forced disappearances and mass gang rapes, it called for the Tatmadaw commander-in-chief, Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing, and five other commanders to be <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/08/1017802">tried for genocide</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-the-un-has-found-myanmars-military-committed-genocide-against-the-rohingya-102251">Explainer: why the UN has found Myanmar’s military committed genocide against the Rohingya</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Call to sever economic ties</h2>
<p>In September 2019 the mission published a report on the <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/MyanmarFFM/Pages/EconomicInterestsMyanmarMilitary.aspx">Tatmadaw’s economic interests</a>. It recommended foreign businesses sever ties and cease all business dealings with Tatmadaw-controlled entities.</p>
<p>The report’s main focus was Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) and another conglomerate, Myanmar Economic Holding Ltd (MEHL). These two corporations have profited from near-monopoly control over many activities and industries under the junta. They have amassed huge land holdings and businesses in manufacturing, construction, real estate, industrial zones, finance and insurance, telecommunications and mining.</p>
<p>They became public companies <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/business/23774-military-conglomerate-hoping-for-more-jvs.html">in late 2016</a>, but their profits still mostly flow to the military. </p>
<p>The report names foreign companies in commercial partnerships with them, including Adani, Kirin Holdings (Japan), Posco Steel (South Korea), Infosys (India) and Universal Apparel (Hong Kong). </p>
<p>The report also recommended governments and institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) take action to economically isolate the Myanmar military. </p>
<h2>Ethical responsibilities</h2>
<p>It is important to note the UN report did not call for general disinvestment from Myanmar. It encouraged businesses to enter, invest and contribute to much-needed economic development – but without associating with the military.</p>
<p>The question of isolation versus engagement has been a longstanding one for Myanmar. Until 2011 the United States, the European Union and countries including Australia imposed broad trade and diplomatic sanctions.</p>
<p>However, foreign companies often found a way to do business in Myanmar through various <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2013.04.005">low-profile strategies</a>. Companies in neighbouring countries in particular largely operated on a “business as usual” basis. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/engaging-in-myanmar-whose-interest-are-we-serving-21480">Engaging in Myanmar: whose interest are we serving?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Doing business in Myanmar without doing business with Tatmadaw interests is no easy task. Access to land and property is especially thorny, given so much is owned by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2015.1072731">crony companies</a>. </p>
<p>Adani, for example, has <a href="https://adanifacts.com.au/media-statement/">defended its port development</a> as contributing to Myanmar’s economic development, stating:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>While some nations, including Australia, have arms embargoes and travel restrictions on key members of the military in place, this does not preclude investment in the nation or business dealings with corporations such as MEC.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It notes its port investments in Myanmar are “held through Singapore-based entities and follow the strict regulations of the Singapore government”. </p>
<p>But doing business with the military conglomerates is less necessary than in the past. Creating separate subsidiaries does not shield investors from their ethical responsibilities to not help line the pockets of those responsible for genocide.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-must-do-more-to-ensure-myanmar-is-preventing-genocide-against-the-rohingya-147451">Australia must do more to ensure Myanmar is preventing genocide against the Rohingya</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Whether avoidable or necessary, when high-profile international businesses choose to enter into such deals they will certainly continue to be observed and criticised for making these choices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152318/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Htwe Htwe Thein has received funding for Myanmar research from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Foreign companies are failing to heed the UN call to stop doing business with Myanmar’s blood-stained military elite.Htwe Htwe Thein, Associate professor, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1382122020-05-11T20:02:38Z2020-05-11T20:02:38ZAustralia listened to the science on coronavirus. Imagine if we did the same for coal mining<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333910/original/file-20200511-30864-1h85rfg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4567%2C2989&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s relative success in stopping the spread of COVID-19 is largely due governments taking expert advice on a complex problem. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of decisions on projects that threaten the environment – most notably, Adani’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-we-still-pursuing-the-adani-carmichael-mine-85100">Carmichael coal mine</a>. </p>
<p>Our research published today in <a href="https://rdcu.be/b35Ym">Nature Sustainability</a> documents how state and federal governments repeatedly ignored independent scientific advice when assessing and approving the Adani mine’s groundwater plans. </p>
<p>We interrogated scientific evidence available to governments and Adani over almost a decade. Our analysis shows governments failed to compel Adani to fully investigate the environmental risks posed by its water plans, despite concerns raised by scientists.</p>
<p>There is also evidence the government approval decisions were influenced by the political climate and pressure exerted by members of government. </p>
<p>Our findings come as the Morrison government conducts a <a href="https://epbcactreview.environment.gov.au/">ten-yearly review</a> of the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act. It is critical these laws – Australia’s most important environmental legislation – are reformed to put rigorous, independent science at the core.</p>
<h2>Advice ignored</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/adani-is-cleared-to-start-digging-its-coal-mine-six-key-questions-answered-118760">In mid-2019</a>, the federal and Queensland governments approved groundwater management plans for Adani’s Carmichael coal mine. It granted the company <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/barbaric-adanis-giant-coal-mine-granted-unlimited-water-licence-for-60-years-20170404-gvd41y.html">unlimited access</a> to groundwater in central Queensland’s Galilee Basin.</p>
<p>We and other experts warned the mine threatens to damage aquifers, rivers and ecosystems – in particular, the <a href="https://wetlandinfo.des.qld.gov.au/wetlands/facts-maps/diwa-wetland-doongmabulla-springs/">Doongmabulla Springs Complex</a>. This system contains more than 150 wetlands which support rare plant communities found nowhere else on earth.</p>
<p>The springs are of major cultural significance to the <a href="https://wanganjagalingou.com.au/if-they-destroy-our-country-they-will-destroy-us-as-a-people/">Wangan and Jagalingou people</a>.</p>
<p>We analysed the full suite of evidence on the groundwater plans from agencies and scientists with expertise in hydro-geology. The evidence, provided to state and federal environment ministers, spanned almost a decade and included at least six independent scientific reviews.</p>
<p>The evidence highlighted major shortcomings, and gaps in knowledge and data.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">Unpacking the flaws in Adani's water management plan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>For example in 2013, the federal government’s Independent Expert Scientific Committee on Coal Seam Gas and Large Coal Mining Development <a href="http://www.iesc.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/224fbb59-e5e6-4154-9dd0-8d60d7c87a75/files/iesc-advice-carmichael-2013-034.pdf">(IESC)</a> said key geological characteristics in Adani’s groundwater model were not consistent with available field data. </p>
<p>Expert evidence from court-appointed hydro-geology witnesses in the <a href="http://envlaw.com.au/carmichael-coal-mine-case/">Land Court of Queensland</a> reiterated this concern and raised new questions over whether the source aquifer for the Doongmabulla Springs had been incorrectly identified. </p>
<p>Subsequent joint reviews by CSIRO and Geoscience Australia in <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/cb8a9e41-eba5-47a4-8b72-154d0a5a6956/files/csiro-geoscience-australia-final-advice.pdf">February</a> and <a href="https://www.des.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0026/81890/csiro-geoscience-australia-qdes-advice-jun2019.pdf">June</a> 2019 found Adani had failed to conclusively resolve these issues. The agencies also <a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">identified further flaws in Adani’s modelling</a>, including interaction between groundwater and the Carmichael River that was again not consistent with field evidence. </p>
<p>The CSIRO and Geoscience Australia concluded the model was “not suitable to ensure the outcomes sought by the EPBC Act conditions are met”.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RglMko3GwQA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Moses 3 Lagoon in the Doongmabulla Springs Complex. Source: Land Services of Coast and Country Inc (2014)</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Governments under pressure</h2>
<p>The federal government received the reviews from CSIRO and Geoscience Australia in February 2019. It did not publicly release them until then-environment minister Melissa Price announced approval of the groundwater plans on April 8. This was effectively the final federal approval the mine needed to proceed.</p>
<p>Media reports at the time suggested Price had been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-11/adani-damning-assessment-turned-into-approval/10990288?nw=0">pressured</a> by members of her government to issue approval before the election. What’s more, her department reportedly <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-14/adani-csiro-emails-foi-melissa-price/11107276">pushed the CSIRO</a> to endorse Adani’s plans in just hours, and in the absence of critical information.</p>
<p>Within 48 hours of Adani’s approval being announced, the government called a federal election. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-government-approves-next-step-towards-adani-coal-mine-115133">Morrison government approves next step towards Adani coal mine</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Coalition was returned to power at the election. Federal Labor suffered heavy losses in regional Queensland – a result many claimed was due to their <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-how-labor-lost-queensland/11122998">lukewarm support for the Adani</a> mine.</p>
<p>The Queensland Labor government was also required to sign off on the groundwater plans. Following the federal election result, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk directed that the assessment be <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/deadline-set-for-adani-approvals-20190524-p51qq8.html">completed quickly</a>. The state approved the plans within four weeks. </p>
<p>This was despite being provided a scientific <a href="https://dspace.flinders.edu.au/xmlui/bitstream/handle/2328/39203/Werner_Position_P2019.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y">analysis</a> by authors of this article and others, outlining key remaining scientific deficiencies in the groundwater plans.</p>
<h2>Once-in-a-decade chance</h2>
<p>Our analysis exposes flaws in how evidence informs major government decisions. It also shows why reform of the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act is so urgent.</p>
<p>The laws are currently under review. Many reputable <a href="https://www.edo.org.au/2019/11/25/analysis-the-epbc-act-review-a-once-in-a-decade-opportunity/">organisations</a> and <a href="http://apeel.org.au/papers">scholars</a> have proposed ways the legislation can better protect the environment, increase its independence from government and put science at the core. </p>
<p>Independent scientific committees, such as the federal IESC, are commissioned by governments to advise on mining proposals. We suggest such committees be granted greater powers to request specific data and studies from mining companies to address knowledge gaps before advice is issued.</p>
<p>Alternatively – or in addition – a new independent national commission should be established to oversee environmental impact assessments conducted by mining and other development proponents. </p>
<p>This commission should be empowered to interrogate and resolve key scientific uncertainties, free from political interference. Its recommendations to government should take into account a wide range of expert advice and public feedback.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333918/original/file-20200511-49589-1aeo3gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/333918/original/file-20200511-49589-1aeo3gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333918/original/file-20200511-49589-1aeo3gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333918/original/file-20200511-49589-1aeo3gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333918/original/file-20200511-49589-1aeo3gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333918/original/file-20200511-49589-1aeo3gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/333918/original/file-20200511-49589-1aeo3gc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Doongmabulla Springs, a desert oasis scientists say is at risk from the Adani mine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This would not only improve the evidence base for decisions, but may also speed up assessments – ensuring more effective resolution of uncertainties that often lead to protracted conflict and debate about a mine’s impacts.</p>
<p>Such reform is urgently needed. Australia is suffering unprecedented <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/state-of-the-climate">water stress</a>, <a href="https://soe.environment.gov.au/">environmental harm</a> and declining <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/23/australia-among-21-nations-where-perceived-corruption-has-worsened">trust in government</a>.</p>
<p>Australian governments listened to the science when it needed to flatten the curve of COVID-19. The same approach is needed if we’re to preserve the places we love and the ecosystems we depend on.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-nature-laws-are-being-overhauled-here-are-7-things-we-must-fix-126021">Our nature laws are being overhauled. Here are 7 things we must fix</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>An Adani spokesperson provided the following response to the claims raised by the authors:</strong></p>
<p><em>Adani’s Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems Management Plan (GDEMP) was finalised and approved by both the Australian and Queensland governments almost 12 months ago, bringing to an end more than eight years of heavily scrutinised planning and approvals processes.</em></p>
<p><em>The approvals were confirmation that the GDEMP complies with all regulatory conditions, following an almost two-year process of rigorous scientific inquiry, review and approvals. This included relevant independent reviews by Australia’s pre-eminent scientific organisations CSIRO and Geoscience Australia.</em></p>
<p><em>There are more than 270 conditions within the mine approvals to protect the natural environment and more than 100 of those relate to groundwater.</em></p>
<p><em>We’re now getting on with construction of the Carmichael Mine and Rail project, having awarded more than $750 million in contracts to the benefit of regional Queenslanders.</em></p>
<p><em>We remain on track to create more than 1,500 direct jobs during the construction and ramp up of our project and some further 6,750 indirect jobs. At a time when our country is facing some of its toughest challenges, we’re determined to deliver on our commitments of jobs and opportunities.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Currell receives funding from the Australian Research Council to study the Doongmabulla Springs Complex</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Werner receives funding from the Australian Research Council to study the Doongmabulla Springs Complex. He also acted as an expert witness in the Land Court case discussed in this article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris McGrath acted as a barrister in litigation against the proposed Adani Coal Mine discussed in this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dylan Irvine receives funding from the Australian Research Council to study the Doongmabulla Spring Complex. </span></em></p>New research reveals how governments ignored decades’ worth of scientific advice on how the Adani mine threatened to damage precious water supplies.Matthew Currell, Associate Professor in Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, RMIT UniversityAdrian Werner, Professor of Hydrogeology, Flinders UniversityChris McGrath, Associate Professor in Environmental and Planning Regulation and Policy, The University of QueenslandDylan Irvine, Senior lecturer in hydrogeology, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1336862020-03-24T18:57:12Z2020-03-24T18:57:12ZOur social identity shapes how we feel about the Adani mine – and it makes the energy wars worse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322480/original/file-20200324-155695-sd8gg2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C16%2C5459%2C3684&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia has the technology to move from fossil fuels to renewable energy, but the social dynamics remain challenging. The Stop Adani protest convoy during the 2019 federal election campaign brought this difficulty to the fore.</p>
<p>A real sticking point for navigating any social change, including the energy transition, is finding a way through entrenched attitudes in which people see themselves as <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959378015300182">“us” in conflict with “them”</a>. In these situations, people tend to focus on trying to defeat their opponents rather than finding mutually beneficial solutions to the problem.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629620300694">research</a> just released, I examined media coverage of the Stop Adani protest convoy to better understand these social identity divides. In particular, I analysed the factors shaping who was an “us” and who was a “them” in the conflict.</p>
<p>I found that the media, with the help of politicians, crafted a narrative of division between inner-city “greenies” and Queensland mining communities. These divisions foster a social dynamic that ultimately inhibits co-operation and good policy outcomes.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322481/original/file-20200324-155683-uixrqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Debate over Australia’s coal industry is fraught and involves entrenched attitudes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Identity matters</h2>
<p>The Stop Adani convoy took place in April and May 2019. It involved hundreds of protesters travelling by road (in a convoy of vehicles) from Tasmania, through eastern Australian cities to Clermont, the regional Queensland town nearest the site of <a href="https://theconversation.com/interactive-everything-you-need-to-know-about-adani-from-cost-environmental-impact-and-jobs-to-its-possible-future-116901">Adani’s proposed Carmichael coal mine</a>.</p>
<p>The identity dimension of this protest is important. Australia’s energy transition is inextricably tied to the often fraught politics of climate and energy more broadly, and our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0157-2">social divisions fall along left-right political lines</a>. This means our views on issues such as climate change and energy policy are wrapped up in, and can often be explained by, the groups with which we identify.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-mines-can-be-closed-without-destroying-livelihoods-heres-how-124336">Coal mines can be closed without destroying livelihoods – here's how</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>So, the energy transition is taking place in an already polarised and challenging space plagued time and time again by the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2399654418772843">same conflict dynamics</a>. </p>
<p>This conflict often gets in the way of identifying and implementing effective policy solutions. It’s a particular problem for the energy transition, which needs people and sectors working together to support the technical changes. And if society is divided, it is far <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421516302300">less likely</a> to achieve a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-would-a-fair-energy-transition-look-like-107366">just transition</a>” that limits negative social impacts and promotes social equity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322482/original/file-20200324-155695-ccsie0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Division over the energy transition is hindering a ‘just transition’ for coal workers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The role of the media</h2>
<p>The media is a space in which diverse groups of people make sense of something happening outside their day-to-day life. That’s why it’s important to examine how the media depicts contentious issues. I studied representation of the convoy in Australia’s six most popular online news websites. </p>
<p>Media representation of the Stop Adani convoy depicted it as a social conflict between two opposing, hostile sides. One side was characterised as activists, Greens (or “greenies”), conservationists and elites; the other characterised as blue-collar workers, regional Queenslanders and proud mining communities.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/adani-is-cleared-to-start-digging-its-coal-mine-six-key-questions-answered-118760">Adani is cleared to start digging its coal mine – six key questions answered</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>These identity-based distinctions were cultivated by political figures who provided media commentary on the convoy. The most prominent were those in favour of the Adani mine, such as Nationals senator Matt Canavan, who <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/busybody-politics-is-threatening-democracy-resources-minister-warns-20190806-p52edg.html">criticised the convoy participants</a> as “self-appointed, self-important bureaucrats” who took a “busybody approach”. </p>
<p>Former Greens leader Bob Brown, who led the convoy, said he “respected those who genuinely believed the Adani mine should go ahead” and identified the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/we-come-in-peace-bob-brown-says-as-thousands-march-in-anti-adani-caravan-20190422-p51g7i.html">coal mining industry and governments as the targets</a> of the protest.</p>
<p>My media analysis revealed that to convoy participants, Adani’s proposed mine symbolised the need for climate action and curtailment of Australia’s coal industry. A counter-movement grew stronger in response, comprising community members and supported by <a href="https://www.resourceindustrynetwork.org.au/Portals/13/2019%20Stakeholder%20Report%20Final_LOW%20Res.pdf">the coal industry</a>. To this group, the Adani mine symbolised regional survival and self-determination. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322483/original/file-20200324-155695-1y19087.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Convoy leader Bob Brown said the coal industry and governments were the target of the protest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Once a debate becomes a “groupish” conflict like this, predictable dynamics in social interactions emerge. This includes hostility and suspicion towards the other side, and <a href="https://jspp.psychopen.eu/article/view/184">stereotyping which can lead to de-humanisation</a>. </p>
<p>These dynamics emerged during the Stop Adani convoy. There were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-27/adani-carmichael-mine-greens-clermont-convoy-qld/11051390">reports of protesters refused entry to local shops and feeling intimidated by the behaviour of townspeople</a>, including having <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-28/adani-protester-injured-in-clermont/11052940">stones thrown at their cars</a>. Conversely, an anti-Adani protester reportedly likened <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/we-come-in-peace-bob-brown-says-as-thousands-march-in-anti-adani-caravan-20190422-p51g7i.html">Adani supporters to Nazis</a> in a Facebook post. (Bob Brown <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/22/bob-brown-accuses-news-corp-of-disgraceful-coverage-of-stop-adani-convoy">distanced the convoy</a> from the comments, which he said had “no place in civil debate”).</p>
<p>Media reports of these incidents served to fuel a narrative of two opposing groups clashing over a fundamental and unsolvable differences.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/322485/original/file-20200324-155666-1rfd385.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman helps a Stop Adani protester allegedly injured during a confrontation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Newton/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Finding unity</h2>
<p>There has been much debate about the extent to which the convoy affected the election result in crucial regional Queensland electorates. My study did not address this question.</p>
<p>At its core, my analysis showed that for the “us” that emerged via the convoy, there had to be a “them”. In other words, we form groups based not just on who we are like, but also who we are not like. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-miners-and-urban-greenies-have-one-thing-in-common-and-labor-must-use-it-123257">Coal miners and urban greenies have one thing in common, and Labor must use it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But achieving a successful and fair energy transition requires creating a unified “we”, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/bad-news-closing-coal-fired-power-stations-costs-jobs-we-need-to-prepare-113369">not leaving any person or community behind</a>. This means looking after regional communities and people who will feel the first-hand impacts of decarbonising our energy supply.</p>
<p>We must better understand the identity dimension of the energy conflict if we’re design and implement creative and effective solutions. This means more listening, more sharing, and finding common ground.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133686/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rebecca Colvin has received funding from the Australian Government for work unrelated to the present study.</span></em></p>New research shows how deeply entrenched “us” and “them” attitudes make it much harder to make a fair energy transition.Rebecca Colvin, Lecturer, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1300112020-01-16T15:53:11Z2020-01-16T15:53:11ZIn defence of Michael McCain: Speaking out is what strong leaders do<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310350/original/file-20200115-134772-18i3op6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2000%2C1110&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michael McCain, president and CEO of Maple Leafs Foods, speaks during the company's annual general meeting in Toronto in April 2011. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Darren Calabrese</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While leaders often take pains to avoid controversial topics and the glare of hostile publicity, it is the <em>sine qua non</em> — the absolute necessity — of strong leaders to speak out about what’s right and wrong, especially at critical moments in history. </p>
<p>As one researcher <a href="https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1048&context=lux">has argued</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Leaders fill the role of mythical heroes through actions such as saving companies, championing causes for the poor or disenfranchised, and defending our closely held beliefs.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>That includes those helming companies, in my opinion.</p>
<p>Michael McCain, the CEO of Maple Leaf Foods, demonstrated such leadership with his recent tweets defending <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/liberal-internationalism">liberal institutions</a> and expressing outrage about <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/13/business/maple-leaf-foods-ceo-ukraine-plane-intl-hnk/index.html">the deaths of 57 Canadians</a>, including the wife and son of one of his employees.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1216529697288355840"}"></div></p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Publication%20Files/The%20Right%20and%20Wrong%20Way%20to%20Do%20CEO%20Activism%20-%20WSJ%202019-02-25_ee4cde54-a398-49ed-ac37-80588e93c776.pdf">activist CEO</a> called out an aggressive American act, undertaken at U.S. President Donald Trump’s behest, to assassinate a high-ranking Iranian official in Baghdad.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/political-assassinations-were-once-unthinkable-why-the-us-killing-of-soleimani-sets-a-worrying-precedent-129622">Political assassinations were once unthinkable. Why the US killing of Soleimani sets a worrying precedent</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The targeted killing escalated tensions between the United States and Iran. Iranians then mistakenly directed missiles at Flight PS752 shortly after takeoff, killing 176 people, many of them bound for Canada.</p>
<p>Even though he’s faced <a href="https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/maple-leaf-foods-boycott-hashtag-gets-some-competition-on-twitter">mixed reactions on social media</a>, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0019850108000291">McCain has helped to enhance a distinctly Canadian brand, Maple Leaf Foods</a>, by defending Canadian values as the country still reels from the tragedy.</p>
<h2>McCain wealth</h2>
<p>McCain has been the president and chief executive officer of Maple Leaf Foods for a couple of decades. The billionaire <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/economy/money-economy/top-25-richest-canadians-2018/image/11/#gallery/canadas-richest-people-2018/slide-11">is one of the wealthiest people</a> in Canada. Although <a href="https://democracyeducationjournal.org/home/vol21/iss1/7/">we may not like income inequality in Canada</a>, it helps when we see wealthy people standing up for what’s right. </p>
<p>McCain has a track record of leadership and trying to do what’s right. In fact, he <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-testing-of-michael-mccain/article598005/">has said that doing the right thing was his goal, and in line with the company’s values</a>, during <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/how-maple-leaf-foods-is-handling-the-listeria-outbreak-1.763404">the company’s 2008 listeria crisis</a>. Instead of covering up the extent of the outbreak, McCain was fully transparent and took full responsibility.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/retail-marketing/michael-mccain-whacked-a-hornets-nest-and-those-who-know-him-arent-surprised/wcm/5746c092-b45d-48bd-bd07-5c212105bcdb">Knowing there is a desire to assign blame, the buck stops here</a>,” he said. “I emphasize: this is our accountability and it’s ours to fix.”</p>
<p>McCain knew that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.12.003">Canadians have to trust a company producing the food they eat</a>, and the Maple Leaf brand recovered from the crisis. </p>
<p>The CEO’s actions were not only ethical, but they also demonstrated his business acumen and effective communication skills. He understood the value of a corporate brand and that a good reputation must back it up. Indeed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2008.02.005">research has shown reputation can motivate consumer purchase intentions.</a></p>
<h2>Siemens’ puzzling coal move</h2>
<p>Contrast this to the recent <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51089468">baffling announcement</a> made by Joe Kaeser, CEO of Siemens, the German engineering giant. Kaeser, the company’s highest paid executive with an annual salary of <a href="https://ca.wallmine.com/otc/siegy/officer/1694562/joe-kaeser">US$9.6 million</a>, says that although he knows it’s the wrong thing to do, his firm will remain on the controversial Adani project, a huge coal mine in Australia.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/14/australia-bushfires-harbinger-future-scientists">Australia’s horrific, climate change-fuelled bush fires rage on</a>, possibly wiping out <a href="https://www.sciencenews.org/article/australian-fires-incinerated-habitats-threatened-species-ecological-disaster">entire species</a>, Kaeser’s decision shows incredibly poor judgment. He has <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0b619eb2-3580-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4">dismayed employees</a> by seemingly tossing aside Siemens’ <a href="https://new.siemens.com/global/en/company/stories/home/climate-action.html">carefully cultivated environmental corporate reputation</a> and tarnished the brand, all for a relatively small US$20 million project. <a href="https://ycharts.com/companies/SIEGY/market_cap">Siemens is a US$100 billion company.</a> </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310357/original/file-20200115-134809-1vpfta3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Activists attend a protest rally against Australia’s climate policy in front of the Australian embassy in Berlin, headquarters of Siemens, on Jan. 10, 2020, over the Adani coal mine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Michael Sohn)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The mine stands to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/16/why-adanis-planned-carmichael-coalmine-matters-to-australia-and-the-world">add to climate change and further damage Australia’s Great Barrier Reef</a>, already battered by bleaching due to rising ocean temperatures and marine heatwaves. Dubbed the <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/adani-mine-australia-climate-change-848315/">“world’s most insane energy project” by <em>Rolling Stone</em> magazine</a>, protesters around the world have made their opposition known. </p>
<p>A Bloomberg opinion writer called Kaeser’s announcement one of the “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-14/siemens-ceo-joe-kaeser-s-odd-defense-of-carmichael-coal-project">strangest pieces of executive communication</a>,” noting that the Adani project doesn’t even make economic sense, especially with the declining price of coal. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-adani-why-would-a-billionaire-persist-with-a-mine-that-will-probably-lose-money-117682">Explaining Adani: why would a billionaire persist with a mine that will probably lose money?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In fact, Siemens <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-20/siemens-ceo-seeks-to-shake-up-conglomerate-with-energy-spinoff">has cut thousands of jobs</a> from a related energy division it plans to spin off. In other words, Kaeser sold out his multinational’s reputation for a project not even part of Siemens’ future. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/13/adani-coalmine-siemens-ceo-has-empathy-for-environment-but-will-honour-contract">He says that he doesn’t see a legal way out of the contract</a> the company signed with India’s Adani.</p>
<p>Although some may claim that it’s easy for McCain to use his company’s corporate Twitter feed however he likes because he owns a good chunk of the business he leads, both men lead publicly traded companies and have shareholders to consider.</p>
<p>With all of Kaeser’s millions, and Siemens’, he could walk away, just as McCain could risk a dent in his company’s stock price with his surprising tweets about Trump. As it were, Maple Leaf Foods <a href="https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MFI.TO/">share prices dipped briefly but soon recovered</a>, suggesting there will be no lasting damage from McCain’s tweets. In fact, many of us may recognize the brand now even more when we’re in grocery stores, and Maple Leaf Foods’ employees, customers and other stakeholders will know the Canadian company can be trusted to do the right thing.</p>
<p>The difference is leadership, not corporate structure. Both men can make independent decisions. But only one is a leader, and that’s Michael McCain.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah de Lange receives funding from SSHRC and Ryerson University on occasion to support her research.</span></em></p>Michael McCain has been criticized for maligning Donald Trump on the Maple Leaf Foods corporate Twitter account over Flight PS752. But strong leaders don’t shy away from taking a stand.Deborah de Lange, Associate Professor, Global Management Studies, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1299722020-01-15T19:08:55Z2020-01-15T19:08:55ZBlackRock is the canary in the coalmine. Its decision to dump coal signals what’s next<p>The announcement by BlackRock, the world’s largest fund manager, that it will <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/adani-to-selffund-2b-carmichael-mine-construction-to-start-before-christmas-20181129-h18i91">dump</a> more than half a billion dollars in thermal coal shares from all of its actively managed portfolios, might not seem like big news. </p>
<p>Announcements of this kind have come out steadily over the past couple of years. </p>
<p>Virtually all the major Australian and European banks and insurers, and many other global institutions, have already announced such policies. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://unfriendcoal.com/2019scorecard/">Unfriend Coal Campaign</a>, insurance companies have stopped covering roughly US$8.9 trillion of coal investments – more than one-third (37%) of the coal industry’s global assets, and stopped offering reinsurance to 46% of them.</p>
<h2>Blackrock matters because it is big</h2>
<p>The announcement matters, in part because of Blackrock’s sheer size.</p>
<p>It is the world’s largest investor, with a total of $US7 trillion in funds under its control. Its announcement it will “<a href="https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-ceo-letter">put climate change at the center of its investment strategy</a>” raises questions about the soundness of smaller financial institutions that remain committed to coal and to a carbon-based economy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310194/original/file-20200115-151867-1u0euws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310194/original/file-20200115-151867-1u0euws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310194/original/file-20200115-151867-1u0euws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310194/original/file-20200115-151867-1u0euws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310194/original/file-20200115-151867-1u0euws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=273&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310194/original/file-20200115-151867-1u0euws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310194/original/file-20200115-151867-1u0euws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310194/original/file-20200115-151867-1u0euws.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/blackrock-client-letter">Exract from BlackRock's letter to clients, January 14, 2020</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Blackrock is also important because its primary business is index funds, that are meant to replicate entire markets. </p>
<p>So far these funds are not affected by the divestment policy. BlackRock’s <a href="https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/products/298415/ishares-s-p-500-index-fund">iShares United States S&P 500 Index fund</a>, for instance, has nearly US$23 billion in assets, including as much as US$1 billion in energy investments.</p>
<p>But the contradiction between the company’s new activist stance and the passive replication of an energy-heavy index such as Australia’s is obvious. The pressure to find a solution will grow. </p>
<h2>In time, the entire share market will be affected</h2>
<p>One solution might be for large mining companies such as BHP to dump their coal assets in order to remain part of both Blackrock’s actively managed (stock picking) and passively managed (all stocks) portfolios. </p>
<p>Another might be the development of index funds from which firms reliant on fossil fuels are excluded. It is even possible that the compilers of stock market indexes will themselves exclude these firms.</p>
<p>The announcement has big implications for the Australian government.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-campaigners-win-support-from-unexpected-places-19394">Fossil fuel campaigners win support from unexpected places</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Blackrock chief executive Laurence Fink noted that climate change has become the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/climate-change-will-reshape-finance-world-s-largest-fund-manager-says-20200115-p53rix.html">top issue raised by clients</a>. He said it would soon affect all all investments – everything from municipal bonds to mortgages for homes.</p>
<p>Once investors start assessing government bonds in terms of climate change, Australia’s government will be in serious trouble.</p>
<h2>Australia’s AAA rating will be at risk</h2>
<p>The bushfire catastrophe and the government’s inadequate response have shown the world Australia is both among the countries most exposed to climate catastrophe and one of the worst in terms of contributions to solutions. </p>
<p>Once bond investors follow the lead of Blackrock and other financial institutions, divestment of Australian government bonds will follow.</p>
<p>This process has already started, with the decision of <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-why-swedens-central-bank-dumped-australian-bonds-126766">Sweden’s central bank</a> to unload its holdings of Australian government bonds. </p>
<p>Taken in isolation, Sweden’s move had virtually no effect on Australia’s bond prices and yields. But the most striking feature of the divestment movement so far is the speed with which it has grown from symbolic gestures to a severe constraint on funding for the firms it touches. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-why-swedens-central-bank-dumped-australian-bonds-126766">Climate change: why Sweden's central bank dumped Australian bonds</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The fact that the Adani corporation was unable to find <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/adani-to-selffund-2b-carmichael-mine-construction-to-start-before-christmas-20181129-h18i91">a single bank willing to fund its Carmichael mine</a> is an indication of the pressure that will come to bear.</p>
<p>The effects might be felt before large-scale divestment takes place. Ratings agencies such as <a href="https://www.moodys.com/Pages/default_au.aspx">Moody’s</a> and <a href="https://www.standardandpoors.com/en_AU/home?idro=14">Standard and Poors</a> are supposed to anticipate risks to bondholders before they materialise. </p>
<h2>It’ll make inaction expensive</h2>
<p>Once there is a serious threat of large-scale divestment in Australian bonds, the agencies will be obliged to take this into account in setting Ausralia’s credit rating. The much-prized AAA rating is likely to be an early casualty. </p>
<p>That would mean higher interest rates for Australian government bonds which would flow through the entire economy, including the home mortgage rates mentioned in the Blackrock statement.</p>
<p>The government’s case for doing nothing about climate change (other than cashing in on past efforts) has been premised on the “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-backs-coal-despite-blackrock-signalling-retreat-from-fossil-fuels-20200115-p53rqe.html">economy-wrecking</a>” costs of serious action. </p>
<p>But as investments associated with coal are increasingly seen as toxic, we run an increasing risk that inaction will cause greater damage.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority. He is a supporter of the UniSuper divest campaign <a href="https://unisuperdivest.org">https://unisuperdivest.org</a>.</span></em></p>In time Australia’s AAA credit rating will be at risk.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1287932019-12-12T10:27:13Z2019-12-12T10:27:13ZGrattan on Friday: Climate winds blowing on Morrison from Liberal party’s left<p>Scott Morrison is picking up that Australia’s devastating, prolonged fires are producing a soured, anti-government mood among many in the community.</p>
<p>It may not be entirely rational for people to turn on politicians in such situations. The actual fighting of the fires, driven primarily at state and local levels, appears to have been efficient.</p>
<p>But the government has invited anger in terms of the broad debate by being so inactive and partisan about climate change over years.</p>
<p>Morrison is struggling to navigate his way through these fraught days before Christmas. He’s stressing unity - “I want to reassure Australians, that the country is working together … to deal with the firefighting challenge”. He’s refusing to meet calls for a national summit or a COAG meeting on the fire effort, but he’s highlighting the federal government’s co-ordinating activities.</p>
<p>He’s placing the most positive spin he can on what Australia is doing on climate change, but all the time emphasising Australian emissions are only a tiny portion of the global total “so any suggestion that the actions of any state or any nation with a contribution to global emissions of that order is directly linked to any weather event, whether here in Australia or anywhere else in the world, is just simply not true”.</p>
<p>The fires are putting pressure on the government by elevating the climate issue and opening new division among Liberals. Only this time – and importantly - the internal wedge is coming from the left rather than the right of the party. The PM is being pushed to do more, rather than being held back.</p>
<p>Morrison is no longer able to gloss over the climate debate. The big question for the next year or two is whether he will reposition the government. </p>
<p>As former treasury secretary Ken Henry has argued, “today’s catastrophic bushfires, and rapidly vanishing water security, again following years of drought, put the present government in a similar position” to when John Howard moved on climate change in 2006.</p>
<p>“The political economy of late 2019 is looking a lot like late 2006,” Henry writes in an article titled <a href="https://johnmenadue.com/ken-henry-the-political-economy-of-climate-change/">“The political economy of climate change”</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/now-australian-cities-are-choking-on-smoke-will-we-finally-talk-about-climate-change-128543">Now Australian cities are choking on smoke, will we finally talk about climate change?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Morrison is the ultimate pragmatist and so, if he sees it in his interest, he may well be willing to readjust. Not radically, nor quickly. Just enough, as and when he judges it, to satisfy middle ground voters.</p>
<p>He did a little of this before the election, when he topped up funding for “direct action” and advanced pumped hydro, although some read more into the shift than was there.</p>
<p>This week NSW Liberal environment minister Matt Kean bluntly called out his federal colleagues’ dancing around the climate-fires link.</p>
<p>“Let’s not beat around the bush … let’s call it for what it is. These bushfires have been caused by extreme weather events, high temperatures, the worst drought in living memory - the exact type of events scientists have been warning us about for decades that would be caused by climate change,” said Kean, who is the leader at state level of the moderate faction.</p>
<p>“There has been a lot of talk since the federal election about ending the climate wars. I think that that talk has been misplaced. It’s not time to end the climate wars. It’s time to win the climate wars.”</p>
<p>Kean also notably acknowledged the “leadership” on the climate issue of Malcolm Turnbull (who again prodded the bear on Monday’s ABC Q&A).</p>
<p>One federal Liberal says, “for a long time [Kean’s line] is where the overwhelming majority of the party has stood [but] nobody was willing to say it. The community is so concerned it has given us the cover to come out and say it”. The MP points to the impact of the issue in Liberal heartland seats in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>The federal government has repeatedly derided the Victorian and Queensland Labor governments for what it argues is their excessive ambition on renewables and emissions reduction. Kean has flagged NSW plans to strengthen its stand. The federal government is clearly exposed as the odd player out.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-the-10-year-anniversary-of-our-climate-policy-abyss-but-dont-blame-the-greens-128239">It's the 10-year anniversary of our climate policy abyss. But don't blame the Greens</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Yet it is the states’ targets for renewables that are helping the national effort on emissions reduction, according to figures just released by the environment and energy department in its report <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/4aa038fc-b9ee-4694-99d0-c5346afb5bfb/files/australias-emissions-projections-2019-report.pdf">“Australia’s emissions projections 2019”</a>.</p>
<p>Looking at Australia’s progress towards its 2030 Paris target of a 26-28% reduction on 2005 levels - which, incidentally, can only be reached via the much-criticised course of carrying over Kyoto credits - the report has revised down its 2018 estimate for projected 2030 emissions.</p>
<p>Reasons for this revision include the boost to the “direct action” fund and “stronger renewables deployment”. A factor in the latter was “the inclusion of 50% renewable energy targets in Victoria, Queensland and the Northern Territory”.</p>
<p>The projection is now for Australia to have renewables generating 48% of its electricity by 2030 – very close to the Labor policy of 50% of which the government was so critical.</p>
<p>Energy Minister Angus Taylor’s speech at the United Nations COP25 conference in Spain this week showed how, as the inevitable transition to clean energy progresses, the government is conflicted. Regardless of years of scepticism about renewables from the federal Coalition, Taylor in Madrid lauded Australia’s achievements in this area.</p>
<p>“In Australia, an unprecedented wave of low emissions energy investment is already underway,” he boasted. </p>
<p>“Last year, renewable investment was Australia’s highest on record at A$14.1 billion, which is world leading investment given our population. Renewables are now more than 25% of our electricity supply in our National Electricity Market.”</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-hydrogen-to-be-truly-clean-it-must-be-made-with-renewables-not-coal-128053">For hydrogen to be truly 'clean' it must be made with renewables, not coal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Reality is gradually proving stronger than ideology as the energy mix changes, but not entirely. The debate around a new coal-fired power station goes on. The government before the election promised a feasibility study into a possible venture in Queensland, and the Nationals continue to push for action.</p>
<p>If a feasibility study left the way open for a coal-fired station, would the government be willing to provide any financial help or guarantee for a portion of the energy output? Given the reluctance of private capital, that would likely be the only way it could happen.</p>
<p>There was a certain irony in Anthony Albanese touring coal country in central Queensland this week, given the climate debate.</p>
<p>Visiting Emerald, Rockhampton and Gladstone among other stops, Albanese was beginning his mission to reconcile the strands in Labor’s climate messages, after Bill Shorten failed to do so, costing vital Queensland votes.</p>
<p>This week Albanese has been talking up the domestic transition to renewables, while providing reassurance to the coal areas by declaring the world will continue to want Australian coal for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>He says the role of government in relation to new coal mines is to make the environmental judgements; if they pass that test, then such projects live or die on their ability to raise private finance. On Adani, he says it has its approval and he’s urging it to get on with providing the jobs (the company says it is doing so).</p>
<p>As to a new coal fired power station: he believes it would not get private finance.</p>
<p>Very aware Shorten was smashed for trying to walk in different shoes on climate and coal when he was in the inner city and in regional Queensland, Albanese is aiming for a story to which he can get a favourable reception all round the country.</p>
<p>That won’t be easy. Then nothing is, for anyone, on the climate issue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128793/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The fires are putting pressure on the government by elevating the climate issue and opening new division among Liberals.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1265842019-11-07T23:50:52Z2019-11-07T23:50:52ZNuance and nostalgia: Labor’s election review provides useful insights and inevitable harking back to Hawke<p>The media have been itching for a report that blamed Labor’s defeat on a dud leader. But the <a href="https://alp.org.au/media/2043/alp-campaign-review-2019.pdf">Review of Labor’s 2019 Federal Election Campaign</a>, chaired by former Rudd and Gillard government minister Craig Emerson and former South Australian premier Jay Weatherill, is proportionate in the blame it sends Bill Shorten’s way. Shorten’s unpopularity contributed to Labor’s defeat, but there were wider problems that cannot be put down to leadership alone. </p>
<p>The review is a nuanced account of why Labor lost. Its brief explanation for that loss – a combination “of a weak strategy that could not adapt to the change in Liberal leadership, a cluttered policy agenda that looked risky and an unpopular leader” – belies the sophistication of the report as whole.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-labors-post-mortem-leaves-the-hard-work-still-to-be-done-126596">Grattan on Friday: Labor's post-mortem leaves the hard work still to be done</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The document does better than most post-election analysis that has so far come from within the party. Some of this has been so tendentious and self-serving that its value in either explaining what went wrong or in pointing a way forward has been close to nil.</p>
<p>The review suggests that central to the party’s failure was that it did not reassess its approach adequately when Scott Morrison replaced Malcolm Turnbull. Rhetoric that might have made sense when the Liberal Party was being led by “Mr Harbourside Mansion”, as well as proposing business tax cuts, made rather less sense once the “daggy suburban dad” in the baseball cap was in charge.</p>
<p>Labor made too little of the chaos in the Coalition. Instead, the ALP made itself the issue at the election, a kind of government-in-waiting with a target on its back.</p>
<p>University-educated voters in the southern states, when they tuned in to Morrison, might have heard a sound something like the air escaping from a whoopee cushion. And such voters swung to the Labor Party in the election. </p>
<p>But voters in the suburbs and the regions, especially in Queensland, liked what they saw. So did professing Christians, who liked it even more when they saw photos of the devout believer at prayer, right arm pointing to heaven.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300778/original/file-20191107-10905-y7tnpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300778/original/file-20191107-10905-y7tnpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300778/original/file-20191107-10905-y7tnpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300778/original/file-20191107-10905-y7tnpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=371&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300778/original/file-20191107-10905-y7tnpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300778/original/file-20191107-10905-y7tnpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300778/original/file-20191107-10905-y7tnpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=466&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Christian voters swung behind the devout Scott Morrison in the 2019 election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the other hand, many voters saw a danger to their already insecure lives in Labor’s multitude of expensive promises – and the taxation changes proposed to pay for them. They believed Morrison when he warned them of the risks of voting Labor.</p>
<p>Then there was coal. The authors of the report do seem to struggle with Adani. Like just about everyone else, they know it’s a financial and environmental mess. But in terms of electoral politics, Adani is radioactive. </p>
<p>Labor suffered in Queensland and the Hunter Valley as a result of its ambiguity, but the authors are silent on what the party could have done differently. If it had been less ambiguous about Adani, it would have needed to take a stand. But what should that stand have been?</p>
<p>The report is insistent that Labor should not alienate progressive and well-educated voters for whom climate change matters a lot and Adani is toxic. But how can it avoid their alienation while also pleasing economically insecure voters in Queensland? Is this simply a matter of finessing one’s language, or do the problems run deeper?</p>
<p>This is perhaps the report’s weakness. It is good at setting out the kinds of dilemmas Labor faces, which the party failed to grapple with at the 2019 election. It bemoans the party’s tendency to become the vehicle for various interests with diverse grievances, at the expense of serving the needs of economically insecure working-class voters. The habit of trying to serve too many masters multiplies policies and increases the complexity of campaign messaging, while undermining the party’s ability to craft a coherent story based on the party’s “core values”.</p>
<p>Yet the report has little to say on what such a narrative would look like or what those core values actually are. We are told the latter include:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>improving the job opportunities, security and conditions of working Australians, fairness, non-discrimination on the basis of race, religion and gender, and care for the environment.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But there is nothing much here that would prompt an undecided voter to look to Labor rather than the Coalition, especially if they like the look of the Coalition’s leader better than Labor’s – as most did in 2019.</p>
<p>And then, when the review tries to set out what a “persuasive growth story” might look like, we are treated to the usual history lesson on the Hawke and Keating governments, whose “whole economic strategy” was about promoting “growth, and through it, jobs” (otherwise known as “jobs and growth”). For the Labor Party, it seems, it’s always 1983. We just need to find the winged keel to get us home.</p>
<p>Rather as the Hawke and Keating governments did, the review pushes any idea of redistribution, or of reducing inequality, to the very margins of Labor philosophy and policy. Indeed, the hosing down of such aspirations – modest as they were at the 2019 election – may well help to explain one of the strangest silences in the report: its failure to deal with the role of the Murdoch press.</p>
<p>The Murdoch media didn’t merely favour the government over the opposition. It campaigned vigorously for the return of the Coalition. And it is a vast empire, with a monopoly through much of regional Queensland, for instance. It is hard not to see in the review’s silence on this matter a clearing of the way for a future kissing of the ring of the familiar kind.</p>
<p>Still, there is much that is valuable in the review. There is its frank criticism of the deficiencies in the Labor Party’s strategising and the incoherence of its campaign organisation. There is the news that the party’s own internal data pointed to the possibility of the catastrophe that ultimately occurred – polling outside the party prompted a misreading of the readily available evidence.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-2019-election-was-more-like-2004-than-1993-and-labor-has-some-reason-to-hope-117394">Why the 2019 election was more like 2004 than 1993 – and Labor has some reason to hope</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The review is also particularly good on the damaging effects of Clive Palmer’s massive advertising splurge. And it makes a fair attempt to relate the Labor Party’s problems to wider international trends, such as the decline of trust, the insecurity of working life for many, the crisis of social democracy, and the search for convenient scapegoats – all of which have undermined the position of parties of reform.</p>
<p>Best of all, the review spares us a lot of rubbish about moving the party to the centre, or the right. It does make much of the need for Labor to reinvigorate its appeal to those groups who seem to have been most alienated at the 2019 election. </p>
<p>It recognises – correctly in my view – that Labor’s position on Adani performed unfortunate symbolic work, suggesting to people especially in parts of Queensland “that Labor did not value them or the work they do”.</p>
<p>But when your primary vote in Queensland is tracking at about 25% and you hold fewer than a quarter of the lower-house seats in that state and Western Australia combined, you probably don’t need a review to tell you something has to change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126584/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frank Bongiorno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While the post-mortem is oddly silent on some issues and clearly struggling with others, it nonetheless provides a thoughtful analysis of where the party went wrong in the 2019 election.Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1232572019-10-10T19:05:07Z2019-10-10T19:05:07ZCoal miners and urban greenies have one thing in common, and Labor must use it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296377/original/file-20191010-188829-m4jx8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C21%2C3636%2C2414&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coal stockpiled before being loaded on to ships at a terminal in Gladstone. researchers say Labor should not "cozy up" to the coal industry.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Months after Labor’s shock election loss, it is still pondering how the Liberals metamorphosed from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/liberals-the-natural-party-of-government-20130910-2ti5b.html">party of the bosses</a> to party of the workers - one that stole an election win from under them.</p>
<p>At the May 18 federal election, several working class seats in <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-how-labor-lost-queensland/11122998">Queensland</a> did not fall into Labor’s hands as expected, and the party narrowly retained others in New South Wales with large negative swings. </p>
<p>They include the coal seat of Hunter, north of Sydney, where Labor’s resources spokesman Joel Fitzgibbon suffered a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/hunt">10% swing</a> against him. He <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-09/joel-fitzgibbons-a-less-ambitious-labor-climate-plan/11585176">this week claimed</a> constituents were scared off by Labor’s ambitious emissions reduction goal - which necessarily entails curbing the burning of fossil fuels such as coal.</p>
<p>Fitzgibbon called on Labor to adopt the government’s weak emissions targets - a call that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/oct/09/mark-butler-condemns-labor-frontbenchers-plan-for-settlement-on-climate-change">drew ire from some of his colleagues</a>. But there is no doubt that since Labor’s election loss, the party has set about <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/penny-wong-s-coal-conversion-concedes-a-difficult-lesson-20190819-p52ijb">proving itself as pro-coal</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-climate-and-resources-spokesmen-at-odds-over-future-policy-124991">Labor's climate and resources spokesmen at odds over future policy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Days after the election, the controversial Adani mine <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/wake-up-call-palaszczuk-buckles-on-adani-three-days-after-election-20190522-p51px2">received long-outstanding approvals</a> from the Queensland Labor government, which also adopted a <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-labor-declares-its-support-for-the-resources-industry-as-it-battles-to-hold-on-to-votes-in-the-regions/news-story/2db44985dc2f2536d843d6edc95ee260">strong pro-coal message</a> at its party conference. Federal Labor MPs were reportedly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-mps-flock-to-join-craig-kelly-s-friends-of-coal-group-20190731-p52cn0.html">tripping over themselves</a> to join the newly formed group Parliamentary Friends of Coal Exports.</p>
<p>But cosying up to coal is not the way forward for Labor. Instead, it must find the common ground that unites workers in the cities and the regions - job insecurity - and build a consensus for climate action on that basis.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296381/original/file-20191010-188797-u3eonm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296381/original/file-20191010-188797-u3eonm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296381/original/file-20191010-188797-u3eonm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296381/original/file-20191010-188797-u3eonm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296381/original/file-20191010-188797-u3eonm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296381/original/file-20191010-188797-u3eonm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296381/original/file-20191010-188797-u3eonm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Now-Labor leader Anthony Albanese in Brisbane in 2017, followed by anti-Adani protesters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Neo-liberalism has gutted coal communities</h2>
<p>The rise in populist votes in Australia is to an extent part of a larger global movement spanning the UK’s Brexit vote, the election of US President Donald Trump, and the rise of far-right agitators across Europe. In Australia, as abroad, this process is the outcome of almost 50 years of neo-liberalism.</p>
<p>Large companies have departed from industrial heartlands, relocating abroad without implementing the same level of social protection and welfare. Blue-collar jobs have been supplanted by white- or pink-collar positions, offering careers in the immaterial world of finance and the service economy.</p>
<p>For some, this shift is not a bad thing, as it opens opportunities in less gruelling urban service jobs. But for working-class and coal communities, it means a loss of their way of life. </p>
<p>In their heyday, industrial factories were holistic experiences that synchronised workers’ lives to the rhythms of production. In coal communities, intergenerational attachments grew to the towns that were constructed to house mining workforces. So pervasive are the emotional attachments to mining that the prospect of moving into a different industry is not appealing to most. Not everyone wants to be a consultant, a service worker or a financial trader.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296379/original/file-20191010-188840-n3bd4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296379/original/file-20191010-188840-n3bd4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296379/original/file-20191010-188840-n3bd4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296379/original/file-20191010-188840-n3bd4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296379/original/file-20191010-188840-n3bd4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296379/original/file-20191010-188840-n3bd4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296379/original/file-20191010-188840-n3bd4u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Office workers are seen on a lunch break at Martin Place in Sydney. Casualisation of the workforce is not confined to the mining industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Mich Tsikas</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Labor is between a rock (of coal) and a hard place</h2>
<p>This global trend pulls Labor in two directions. Urban workers in the services, finance or creative industries perceive climate change as the greatest threat to their futures and demand a transition from coal to renewables. Labor’s traditional base, however, is mining communities who feel threatened by the policies environmentalists are calling for. </p>
<p>Is there a way to navigate these apparently conflicting voter needs? Yes. But not by embracing coal and hoping city voters won’t notice. Instead, Labor must build a coalition across both coal communities and its urban base, recognising that the political issues around coal in Australia are about more than climate change.</p>
<p>The biggest threat to existing coal jobs is not climate policy, but the increased casualisation of the mining workforce. Coal miners are significant victims of what unions such as the the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union has termed the “<a href="https://me.cfmeu.org.au/news/member-update-ending-permanent-casual-rort">permanent-casual rort</a>”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-gig-economy-workers-will-be-left-short-of-super-85814">How gig economy workers will be left short of super</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Coal workers are increasingly employed on casual contracts through labour hire companies. They work the same shifts and do the same jobs for years, but are not entitled to paid holidays or sick leave and are liable to be sacked at any time.</p>
<p>Insecure jobs also mean casuals are less likely to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/10/mineworkers-fear-reprisals-for-raising-safety-concerns-amid-spike-in-deaths">raise safety concerns</a>. In the past year there have been <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/six-queensland-mining-deaths-in-a-year-is-no-aberration-expert-20190709-p525h3.html">six Queensland mining fatalities</a>, the highest rate in 20 years.</p>
<p>This shift is not confined to mining and industrial manufacturing. <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/theausinstitute/pages/2807/attachments/original/1528337971/Insecure_Work_Factbook.pdf?1528337971">Fewer than half</a> of working Australians have full-time permanent jobs. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uber-drivers-experience-highlights-the-dead-end-job-prospects-facing-more-australian-workers-116973">Employers such as rideshare service Uber</a> and others in the gig economy offer flexibility in exchange for exploitation, insecurity, and a lack of workplace protections.</p>
<p>Like coal miners, people working in the immaterial economy - many of whom are concerned about climate change - also face increasingly insecure workplaces.
Yet few on the side of climate action see these commonalities, or think of coal communities as potential allies.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VWmfrvYae54?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A CFMMEU video arguing against incensed workforce casualistaion.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Labor should broker a new kind of coalition</h2>
<p>For Labor, a pro-coal message designed to win back coal miners will only alienate its urban base. Instead of flipping scripts between electorates, the party should build a broad coalition on the common job insecurity faced by both coal miners and urban, post-industrial workers. </p>
<p>This would create spaces of solidarity between environmentalists and miners. It would refocus the discussion from how environmental policy puts jobs at risk to how it can address workforce insecurity across industries.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-mines-can-be-closed-without-destroying-livelihoods-heres-how-124336">Coal mines can be closed without destroying livelihoods – here's how</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Labor’s existing “Just Transition” policy goes part-way there. But it allocated just $15 million over four years to administer redundancies, and fund worker training and economic diversification. Judging by the election result, coal communities were not convinced by it.</p>
<p>Labor should look to the US, where the proposed <a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/trade/what-green-new-deal">Green New Deal</a> promises to cut climate pollution while creating millions of safe, stable jobs, whether in weather-proofing homes, expanding railways or making wind turbines. It is underpinned by the notion that structural reform to address inequality is central to climate policy. </p>
<p>Coal miners are not ignorant of the changing economics of their industry. But Labor will gain ground only if it devises a climate policy that is environmentally sound <em>and</em> offers protection against precarious employment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor will not win an election by cozying up to coal or weakening its climate target. Instead, it must find the common ground uniting workers in the cities and the regions - job insecurity.Fabio Mattioli, Lecturer in Social Anthropology, The University of MelbourneKari Dahlgren, PhD in Anthropology, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1235812019-09-17T20:32:00Z2019-09-17T20:32:00ZThe good, the bad and the ugly: the nations leading and failing on climate action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292718/original/file-20190917-19045-bqc0jq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Children play near a coal-fired power plant in the town of Obilic, Kosovo, in November 2018</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Valdrin Xhemaj </span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em><strong>This piece is part of Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 250 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.</strong></em></p>
<p>It is almost five years since the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">landmark Paris deal</a> was struck. Nearly 200 countries agreed to work towards limiting global warming to 1.5°C, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">beyond which the planet is expected to slide</a> irreversibly towards devastating climate change impacts. </p>
<p>But few nations are on track to reaching this goal. Right now, we’re <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/climate-change-un-data-shows-2018-fourth-hottest/10788072">heading to warming above 3°C</a> by 2100 - and this will have catastrophic consequences for the planet.</p>
<p>United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has called a <a href="https://www.un.org/climatechange/">major climate summit</a> in New York on September 23, where countries are expected to announce more ambitious climate targets than they set in Paris, and solid plans to achieve them.</p>
<p>Ahead of the summit, let’s take stock of the world’s best and worst performers when it comes to tackling the climate emergency.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292722/original/file-20190917-19076-hi90wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A man standing near a wind farm near Urumuqi, China.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Qilai Shen/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Australia is keeping poor company</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org">Climate Action Tracker</a> is an independent scientific analysis produced by two research organisations tracking climate action since 2009. It monitors 32 countries, accounting for more than 80% of global emissions. </p>
<p>We looked in detail at who has made the most progress since 2015, and who has done the least. <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/australia/">Australia</a> sits firmly in the group of governments we labelled as actually delaying global climate action, alongside the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/">United States</a> (which under President Donald Trump has walked away from the Paris agreement altogether).</p>
<p>Other countries delaying global climate action with highly insufficient targets and no progress since 2015 are the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/russian-federation/">Russian Federation</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/saudi-arabia/">Saudi Arabia</a>, the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/uae/">United Arab Emirates</a>, and <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/indonesia/">Indonesia</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292423/original/file-20190913-8697-19feftk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions, past and projected. Data drawn from Department of the Environment and Energy report titled ‘Australia’s emissions projections 2018’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Department of the Environment and Energy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/e2b0a880-74b9-436b-9ddd-941a74d81fad/files/nggi-quarterly-update-june-2018.pdf">Australia’s emissions are at a seven-year high</a>, and continue to rise. The government’s commitment to fossil fuels remains unwavering - from coal projects such as Adani’s proposed Carmichael mine in Queensland to huge <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/lng-boom-is-back-surge-in-projects-tipped-for-next-six-years-20190426-p51hj3.html">new gas projects</a>. </p>
<p>Australia is the world’s largest exporter of coal, providing <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/media/australia_carbon_footprint_report_july2019.pdf">29% of coal’s global trade</a>, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-qatar-lng/australia-grabs-worlds-biggest-lng-exporter-crown-from-qatar-in-nov-idUSKBN1O907N">last year also became</a> the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. Its exported fossil fuel emissions currently represent around <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/latest/australia-on-track-to-become-one-of-the-worlds-major-climate-polluters/">3.6% of global emissions</a>.</p>
<h2>The surprising success stories</h2>
<p><a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/ethiopia/">Ethiopia</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/morocco/">Morocco</a> and <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/">India</a> top the list of countries doing the most to tackle climate change. In total, eight international jurisdictions have made good progress since 2015, including the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/">European Union</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/canada/">Canada</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/chile/">Chile</a>, <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/costa-rica/">Costa Rica</a>, and <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/">Argentina</a> (although they still have a lot of work ahead to meet the 1.5°C goal). </p>
<p>While India still relies on coal, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-renewables-coal/india-plans-330-billion-renewables-push-by-2030-without-hurting-coal-idUSKCN1TZ18G">its renewables industry</a> is making huge leaps forward, with investments in renewable energy topping fossil fuel investments. The country is expected to over-achieve its Paris Agreement target.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292723/original/file-20190917-19076-1wqsscv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lightning in the night sky over the Odervorland wind farm near Sieversdorf, Germany.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Pleul/DPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So what are they doing right? <a href="https://unfccc.int/news/costa-rica-commits-to-fully-decarbonize-by-2050">Costa Rica’s national decarbonisation plan</a> covers the entire economy, including electrifying the public transport system, and huge energy efficiency measures in the industry, transport and buildings sectors. Costa Rica has also put a <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/07/11/need-non-proliferation-treaty-fossil-fuels/">moratorium on new oil production</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/">EU is set to overachieve</a> its 2030 target of reducing emissions by 40% below 1990 levels by 2030 and is in the process of considering an increase in this to at least 50%. It has recently increased its renewable energy and energy efficiency goals, and is sorting out its emissions trading scheme, with prices of emission units increasing.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-to-attend-climate-summit-empty-handed-despite-un-pleas-to-come-with-a-plan-123187">Australia to attend climate summit empty-handed despite UN pleas to ‘come with a plan'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This, together with past investments in renewable energy, have helped to achieve a 15% reduction in German electricity sector emissions in the first half of 2019. Whilst <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/537/CAT_2019-06-19_SB50_CAT_Update.pdf">Germany has missed its 2020 targets</a>, it has begun a process to phase out coal no later than 2038 – still a number of years too late for a Paris-compatible pathway. </p>
<h2>Quitting coal is key</h2>
<p>An increasing number of countries are adopting net zero emissions targets, many of them in the European Union, and some outside. Some, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/05/uk-coal-fired-power-plants-close-2025">like the UK, have dumped coal,</a> and are well on the way to achieving those targets.</p>
<p>A global phase-out of coal for electricity is the single most important step toward achieving the 1.5°C warming limit. At the latest, <a href="https://climateanalytics.org/publications/2016/implications-of-the-paris-agreement-for-coal-use-in-the-power-sector/">this should be achieved by</a> 2050 globally, by 2030 in the OECD and 2040 in China and other Asian countries.</p>
<p>There are some signs of optimism here. On <a href="https://endcoal.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BoomAndBust_2019_r6.pdf">one estimate</a>, the number of coal projects in the pipeline shrunk by nearly 70% between 2015 and 2018, and investors are increasingly wary of the technology. Yet coal is still set to boom in Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan and Turkey.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292724/original/file-20190917-19063-b2qq8g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Under current polities, the world is set for more than 3°C of warming by 2100.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Action Tracker</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-gloves-are-off-predatory-climate-deniers-are-a-threat-to-our-children-123594">The gloves are off: 'predatory' climate deniers are a threat to our children</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In 2018, <a href="https://www.iea.org/geco/emissions/">energy-related carbon dioxide emissions reached a historic high.</a> While coal reversed its recent decline, emissions from <a href="https://www.iea.org/geco/gas/">natural gas surged by 4.6%</a>.</p>
<p>Renewable energy is the key to unlocking rapid decarbonisation. It already supplies more than <a href="https://www.iea.org/geco/renewables/">26% of global electricity generation</a> and its costs are dropping rapidly. To accelerate this fundamental transition, more governments need to adopt and improve policies that enable renewable technologies to be rolled out faster. This would contribute to low-carbon economic development and job creation. </p>
<h2>Don’t forget about trees</h2>
<p>Nowhere is the alarming rate of global deforestation more obvious than in Brazil, now in the middle of a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-21/wildfires-raging-through-the-amazon-rainforest-at-record-rate/11434866">record fire season</a>. It adds to damage wrought by President Jair Bolsonaro who has <a href="https://theconversation.com/amazon-fires-jair-bolsonaro-faces-mounting-political-backlash-in-brazil-even-from-his-allies-122512">weakened his country’s institutional framework</a> preventing forest loss.</p>
<p>In 2018, Brazil recorded the <a href="http://www.obt.inpe.br/OBT/assuntos/programas/amazonia/prodes">world’s highest loss of tropical primary rainforest</a> of any country - 1.3 million hectares - largely in the Amazon. The deforestation reached 7,900 square km in 2018, a 72% increase from the historic low in 2012.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292727/original/file-20190917-19083-lh2ei8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fire fighting efforts this month in an indigenous reserve in Humaita, in Brazil’s Amazon forest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">FERNANDO BIZERRA/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The past few weeks have shown us what 1°C of global warming means. <a href="http://theconversation.com/hurricane-dorian-where-it-hit-where-its-headed-and-why-its-so-destructive-122937">Hurricane Dorian</a>, fuelled by high sea-surface temperatures, wiped out the northern Bahamas. Temperatures in the 40s <a href="http://theconversation.com/heatwave-completely-obliterated-the-record-for-europes-hottest-ever-june-119801">set records across Europe</a>. And in Queensland, the earliest fire season on record destroyed homes and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/10/i-never-thought-id-see-the-australian-rainforest-burning-what-will-it-take-for-us-to-wake-up-to-the-climate-crisis">razed rainforests</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-07/climate-change-un-data-shows-2018-fourth-hottest/10788072">predicted 3°C</a> of warming by 2100 will bring a lot worse: widespread crop failures, dead coral reefs, more extreme heat waves and major threats to water supply and human health. </p>
<p>The world can avoid this, but time is running out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Hare is a Director of Climate Analytics, a nonprofit climate science and policy institute. Climate Analytics receives research and project funding from philanthropies, governments and international organisations on climate science, impacts and policy. Sources of funding include the German Government’s (BMUB) International Climate Initiative, Climate Works Foundation, the European Climate Foundation, European Commission Research funds, the UK Government's Climate Development Knowledge Network. Bill Hare is directing the IMPACT Project, which provides scientific, policy, analytical and strategic support, capacity building and advice for delegations from small island states and least developed countries in international climate negotiations.
</span></em></p>Ahead of the UN climate summit, we take stock of the world’s best and worst performers on climate action - including some surprise success stories.Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics, Adjunct Professor, Murdoch University (Perth), Visiting scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1227882019-09-04T19:52:41Z2019-09-04T19:52:41ZIndigenous people no longer have the legal right to say no to the Adani mine – here’s what it means for equality<p>Last week, the Queensland government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/31/queensland-extinguishes-native-title-over-indigenous-land-to-make-way-for-adani-coalmine">extinguished native title</a> over tracts of land in the Galilee Basin so the Adani coal mine could proceed. </p>
<p>This gives Adani <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/31/queensland-extinguishes-native-title-over-indigenous-land-to-make-way-for-adani-coalmine">freehold title</a> to the land, and means the Wangan and Jagalingou <a href="https://wanganjagalingou.com.au/our-fight/">native title holders’ objections</a> no longer have the same legal significance. </p>
<p>But they do have moral significance, and this decision has implications for Australia’s international reputation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-heres-exactly-what-adanis-carmichael-mine-means-for-queensland-87684">Infographic: here's exactly what Adani's Carmichael mine means for Queensland</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/declaration-on-the-rights-of-indigenous-peoples.html">voted against</a> the adoption of the United Nations’ Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples in 2007, before changing its view and accepting the declaration as an “<a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/IndigLawB/2009/10.html">aspirational</a>” statement in 2009, complete with its insistence that development on Indigenous lands should not take place without the Indigenous people’s “<a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">free, prior and informed consent</a>”. </p>
<p>At the time, federal Minister for Indigenous Affairs Jenny Macklin explained the declaration had the potential to help reset “<a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/IndigLawB/2009/10.html">the relationship</a> between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians and mov[e] forward towards a new future”.</p>
<p>But, legally, extinguishment means the land in the Galilee Basin is <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2017C00178">no longer</a> Indigenous land. </p>
<p>And while extinguishment of native title remains possible and has happened, the “aspiration” for Indigenous people to enjoy political authority over their own affairs, as the declaration promises, is severely restricted. </p>
<p>This means Indigenous citizenship cannot be equal. For example, insecure land rights mean the internationally-recognised human right to culture cannot be upheld.</p>
<h2>What is native title?</h2>
<p>Native title is regulated under the Commonwealth <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2017C00178">Native Title Act 1993</a>. But the commercial interests of Adani prevailing over the rights of the Wangan and Jagalingou people shows just how fragile the act is.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2017C00178">Native title</a> is the recognition Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have rights to land according to their own laws and customs. </p>
<p>It also recognises Indigenous rights of prior occupancy. This follows the <a href="http://www.7genfund.org/sites/default/files/helpful-resources/Mabo%20v%20Queensland%20%28No%202%29%20%28%2522Mabo%20case%2522%29%20%5B1992%5D%20HCA%2023.pdf">Mabo v Queensland</a> decision of the High Court in 1992, in which the court found Australia was not <em>terra nullius</em> – it was not “unoccupied land” when British colonisation began. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-mabo-decision-and-native-title-74147">Australian politics explainer: the Mabo decision and native title</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Then, in 1996, the High Court <a href="https://www.informea.org/sites/default/files/court-decisions/Wik%20Peoples%20v%20Queensland.pdf">granted a native title</a> claim by the Wik peoples of Cape York. This case was significant because the court found native title could co-exist with pastoral leases issued by the government. A lease over pastoral land did not automatically extinguish native title.</p>
<p>Political controversy about the scope of the native title right followed. <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=a31CyLkU9-QC&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">There were deeply contested arguments</a> about whose positions would prevail when there was conflict between native title rights and the rights or interests of others, with some arguing pastoral leases should, in fact, automatically extinguish native title. </p>
<h2>The right to say ‘no’ is at the heart of political equality</h2>
<p>While the native title holders’ objections no longer have legal significance in terms of stopping the Adani mine, there is far-reaching moral significance in terms of, for instance, Queensland’s ideas of equal citizenship and property rights. </p>
<p>With the guidance of the UN declaration, Queensland could aspire to more democratic values. In a liberal democratic society, the internationally-recognised right to property is a basic right and should not be taken away lightly.</p>
<p>At the same time, mining on Indigenous lands is not always a source of conflict. Native title holders can enter <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2017C00178">Land Use Agreements</a> with companies like Adani to allow mining on <a href="https://minerals.org.au/sites/default/files/MCA%20Monograph%207%20-%20From%20Conflic%7Eon%20by%20Professor%20Marcia%20Langton.pdf">mutually beneficial terms</a>. </p>
<p>Some native title holders in the Galilee Basin <a href="https://aiatsis.gov.au/ntpd-resource/29274">preferred this approach</a>, but others did not because they wanted to retain use and custodianship of the land. </p>
<p>In any case, a secure right to say “no” is a mark of political equality. The right to say “no” means non-Indigenous interests do not automatically take priority.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/landmark-high-court-decision-guides-how-compensation-for-native-title-losses-will-be-determined-113346">Landmark High Court decision guides how compensation for native title losses will be determined</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Political equality occurs when the “rightness” or “wrongness” of a policy idea is determined by reason and argument. It’s not determined by the apparent moral inferiority of an Indigenous position, just because it’s an Indigenous view. </p>
<p>The deep politics of racial division is at play when governments position mining as in the public interest, with Indigenous land owners obstructive of that interest and not part of the public on whose behalf governments are supposed to govern. </p>
<p>The UN declaration imagines a more inclusive idea of who and what makes up the “public”, with Indigenous peoples having the same meaningful opportunities as anyone to participate in decision-making, and their perspectives respectfully heard.</p>
<h2>Indigenous rights in Australia</h2>
<p>According to the declaration, Indigenous peoples <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">have</a> the right:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>to participate fully, if they so choose, in the political, economic, social and cultural life of the state.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The declaration also affirms Indigenous rights to land and culture. If one sees it as an aspirational document, as Australia does, then the declaration would allow cultural priorities to be expressed by Indigenous people in policy-making forums.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-can-native-title-only-exist-if-australia-was-settled-not-invaded-90540">FactCheck: can native title 'only exist if Australia was settled, not invaded'?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Instead, extinguishing a land right also means extinguishing certain cultural rights. It means extinguishing elements of what the declaration <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/indigenouspeoples/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2018/11/UNDRIP_E_web.pdf">affirms as</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the right to maintain and strengthen their distinct political, legal, economic, social and cultural institutions.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Indigenous autonomy cannot be realised when native title is extinguished. Taking away native title means the full implications of the High Court finding that Australia was not <em>terra nullius</em> in 1788, cannot be fully examined.</p>
<p>The declaration’s aspirations for language, culture, land, and decision-making authorities provide a framework for thinking about what it means to have fundamental human equality in a land which has, in fact, been occupied for many thousands of years.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122788/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dominic O'Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The deep politics of racial division is at play when governments position mining as in the public interest, with Indigenous land owners obstructive of that interest.Dominic O'Sullivan, Adjunct Professor, Faculty of Health and Environmental Sciences, Auckland University of Technology and Associate Professor of Political Science, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1215522019-08-12T20:04:19Z2019-08-12T20:04:19ZAdani beware: coal is on the road to becoming completely uninsurable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287681/original/file-20190812-71897-7kq207.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=722%2C893%2C5148%2C2448&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Insurers have to protect themselves against foreseeable risks. For insurers of fossil fuel projects, those risks are growing.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The announcement by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/26/insurance-giant-suncorp-says-it-will-no-longer-cover-new-thermal-coal-projects">Suncorp</a> that it will no longer insure new thermal coal projects, along with a similar announcement by <a href="https://www.insurancenews.com.au/corporate/qbe-ditches-coal-business">QBE Insurance</a> a few months earlier, brings Australia into line with Europe where <a href="https://www.insureourfuture.us/updates/2018/12/17/europes-largest-insurers-move-to-limit-coal-and-co2-related-risks">most major insurers</a> have broken with coal. </p>
<p>US firms have been a little slower to move, but <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chubb-ltd-ch-coal-policy-idUSKCN1TW3I2">Chubb</a> announced a divestment policy in July, and <a href="https://www.ran.org/press-releases/pressure-grows-on-adani-as-liberty-mutual-reveals-it-will-not-insure-carmichael-project/">Liberty</a> has confirmed it will not insure Australia’s Adani project. </p>
<p>Other big firms such as America’s AIG are coming <a href="https://actions.sumofus.org/a/adani-aig-insurance">under increasing pressure</a>. </p>
<p>Even more than divestment of coal shares by banks and managed funds, the withdrawal of insurance has the potential to make coal mining and coal-fired power generation businesses unsustainable. </p>
<p>As the chairman and founder of Adani Group, Gautam Adani, has shown in Queensland’s Galilee Basin, a sufficiently rich developer can use its own resources to finance a coal mine that <a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-adani-why-would-a-billionaire-persist-with-a-mine-that-will-probably-lose-money-117682">banks won’t touch</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/echoes-of-2008-could-climate-change-spark-a-global-financial-crisis-112497">Echoes of 2008: Could climate change spark a global financial crisis?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But without insurance, mines can’t operate. </p>
<p>(Adani claims to have insurers for the Carmichael project, but has <a href="https://ecowarriorprincess.net/2019/06/liberty-mutual-will-not-insure-adani-carmichael-coal-mine/">declined to reveal their names</a>.)</p>
<h2>Why are insurers abandoning coal?</h2>
<p>By the nature of their business, insurers cannot afford to indulge the denialist fantasies still popular in some sectors of industry. Damage caused by climate disasters is one of their biggest expenses, and insurers are fully aware that that damage is set to rise over time.</p>
<p>Even so, a sufficiently hard-headed company might choose to work both sides of the street – continuing to do business with fossil fuel companies, while also writing more expensive insurance against climate damage.</p>
<p>The bigger problem insurers face is the risk of litigation holding fossil fuel companies responsible for climate-related damage. For the moment, this is a potential rather than an immediate risk.</p>
<p>As US insurer <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20190724/NEWS06/912329769/AIG-names-sustainability-leader-outlines-climate-exposure">AIG</a>, yet to announce a divestment policy, has observed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Based on our monitoring, while the overall volume of litigation activity has increased, past litigation seems to have largely been unsuccessful on numerous grounds including difficulties in determining and attributing fault and liability to a particular company, and the judiciary’s deference to the political branches of government on questions relating to climate change.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Recent development suggest these difficulties will be overcome.</p>
<h2>It’s becoming easier to finger climate culprits…</h2>
<p>Until recently, the most immediate problem facing potential litigants has been demonstrating that an event was the result of climate change as opposed to something else, such as random fluctuations in climatic conditions.</p>
<p>Scientific progress on this “extreme event attribution problem” has been rapid.</p>
<p>It is now possible to <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/cranking-intensity-report/">say with confidence</a> that climate change is causing an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and weather-related events such as extreme heatwaves, drought, heavy rains, tropical storms and bushfires. </p>
<p>The Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has highlighted <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/12/three-extremes-in-2016-not-possible-without-human-warming/">three extremes</a> in 2016 that would not have occurred if not for the added influence of climate change:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a persistent area of unusually warm water that lingered off the Alaskan coast, causing reduced marine productivity and other ecological disruptions</p></li>
<li><p>the extreme heatwave that happened in Asia, killing hundreds and destroying crops</p></li>
<li><p>the overall global atmospheric heat record set that year.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>…and to allocate liability</h2>
<p>The second line of defence against climate litigation that has held so far is the difficulty of imputing damage to the companies that burn fossil fuels.</p>
<p>While it is true that all weather events have multiple causes, in many circumstances climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels has been a necessary condition for those events to take place.</p>
<p>Courts routinely use arguments about necessary conditions to determine liability.</p>
<p>For example, a spark from a power line might cause a bushfire on a hot, dry, windy day, but would be harmless on a wet cold day. That can be enough to establish liability on the part of the company that operates the power line.</p>
<p>These issues are playing out in California, where devastating fires in 2017 caused damage estimated at US$30 billion and drove the biggest of the power companies, PG&E, into <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2019/01/21/as-30b-in-wildfire-claims-bankrupt-pge-california-wonders-who-will-pay-after-the-next-conflagration/#4fa3a4c26995">bankruptcy</a>. </p>
<p>As a result there has been pressure to loosen liability laws, leaving the cost of future disasters to be borne by Californians in general, and their insurers. </p>
<p>Lawyers will be looking for someone to sue.</p>
<h2>Adani is a convenient target</h2>
<p>The question facing potential litigants is whether any single company contributes enough to climate change to make it meaningfully liable for particular disaster. </p>
<p>Adani’s Carmichael mine provides a convenient example.</p>
<p>Adani says the 10 million tonnes of coal it plans to mine will produce only <a href="https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/adani-defends-carbon-emissions-at-carmichael/">240,000 tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide, but this is semantic trickery. The firm is referring only to so-called “scope 2” emissions associated with the mining process itself. </p>
<p>When the coal is burned it might produce an extra 30 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, amounting to about 0.05% of global emissions. </p>
<p>A 0.1% share of the damage associated with the California fires is US$15 million, enough to be worth suing for. Other similarly sized mines will face similar potential liabilities.</p>
<p>Once a precedent is established, any company in the business of producing or burning fossil fuels on a large scale can expect to be named in a regular stream of suits seeking substantial damages.</p>
<h2>When governments are successfully sued…</h2>
<p>The remaining line of defence for companies responsible for emissions is the history of courts in attributing climate change to decisions by governments rather than corporations. </p>
<p>In the Netherlands, a citizen action group called Urgenda has won a case against the Dutch government arguing it has <a href="https://www.urgenda.nl/en/themas/climate-case/">breached its legal duty of care</a> by not taking appropriate steps to significantly restrain greenhouse gas emissions and prevent damage from climate change.</p>
<p>The government is appealing, but it has lost every legal round so far. Sooner or later, this kind of litigation will be successful. Then, governments will look for another party that can be sued instead of them.</p>
<h2>…they’ll look for someone else to blame</h2>
<p>Insurance companies are an easy target with deep pockets. Despite its hopeful talk quoted above, AIG would find it very difficult to avoid paying up if Californian courts found the firms it insured liable for their contributions to a climate-related wildfires or floods.</p>
<p>This is not a message coal-friendly governments in the US or Australia want to hear. </p>
<p>But the decision of Suncorp to dump coal, just a couple of months after the re-election of the Morrison government, makes it clear that businesses with a time horizon measured in decades cannot afford wishful thinking. They need to protect themselves against what they can see coming.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explaining-adani-why-would-a-billionaire-persist-with-a-mine-that-will-probably-lose-money-117682">Explaining Adani: why would a billionaire persist with a mine that will probably lose money?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121552/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority. He has been active in campaigns against new and expanded thermal coal mines.</span></em></p>The decision of Suncorp to dump coal, just months after the re-election of the Morrison government, makes it clear that insurers can’t afford wishful thinking.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1205932019-07-21T20:02:08Z2019-07-21T20:02:08ZProtest art: rallying cry or elegy for the black-throated finch?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285028/original/file-20190721-116586-1ktuwnb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One of the artworks made as part of a project where Australians are sending artistic representations of the bird to politicians to protest the Adani mine, which threatens the bird’s habitat.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Robyn Rich</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past few weeks, artists from around Australia have been creating small artworks depicting the endangered black-throated finch and sending them to politicians involved in decision-making around the Adani Carmichael mine in Queensland’s Galilee Basin. Before being mailed, the artworks are photographed and uploaded to <a href="https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/blackfinchproject/">Instagram</a>. Over 1,400 have been mailed to date.</p>
<p>This is not the first time Australian artists have banded together in protest. In 2014 Transfield Holdings was forced by artists’ protests to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2014/mar/07/sydney-biennale-chairman-quits-transfield-detention">withdraw as principal sponsor</a> of the Biennale of Sydney – a philanthropic role reaching back 40 years – when participating artists learned that a then-related company was involved in Australia’s offshore detention program. </p>
<p>Similarly, in 2017 artists led a successful campaign calling on the National Gallery of Victoria to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/28/national-gallery-of-victoria-dumps-wilson-security-over-offshore-detention">sack its contracted security firm</a>, Wilson, which is also active in the detention of asylum seekers. </p>
<p>To penetrate the public consciousness, however, artist-led protests need to move beyond the relatively niche arenas of art museums and Instagram. Peter Drew’s series of poster campaigns that began in 2015 with <a href="https://www.peterdrewarts.com/blog-native/2015/6/12/twjz53ofk3dtkpft0jcif9g51yh8ts">Real Australians Say Welcome</a>, for example, have become accepted, even expected images in public spaces across the country. Brisbane artist Richard Bell took his <a href="https://www.mca.com.au/artists-works/works/2017.10A-G/">Embassy</a> project to the Venice Biennale this year, where it was embraced by the international art community and its thousands of acolytes, few of whom had prior understanding of the Aboriginal rights movement in Australia.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284915/original/file-20190719-116539-12lbpx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284915/original/file-20190719-116539-12lbpx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284915/original/file-20190719-116539-12lbpx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284915/original/file-20190719-116539-12lbpx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284915/original/file-20190719-116539-12lbpx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284915/original/file-20190719-116539-12lbpx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284915/original/file-20190719-116539-12lbpx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284915/original/file-20190719-116539-12lbpx8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peter Drew’s Real Australians Say Welcome posters have become widely recognised around the country.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">RaeAllen/flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/f2RxIg2rybA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>The current <a href="https://www.charlottewatson.org/black-throated-finch">Black Finch Project</a> takes its name from the tiny, almost extinct bird whose last key habitat is threatened by the Adani mine. There are thought to be only <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-03/how-is-a-tiny-bird-such-a-big-problem-for-adani/11076386">1,000 of the species remaining</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/31/queensland-signs-off-adanis-plan-for-endangered-black-throated-finch">scientists have warned</a> that the native finch may well be wiped out by the habitat-destroying mining operation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/death-by-775-cuts-how-conservation-law-is-failing-the-black-throated-finch-110704">Death by 775 cuts: how conservation law is failing the black-throated finch</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Adani’s management plan for the endangered bird was initially rejected by the Queensland state government, before a revised plan was approved on May 31. Despite the revisions, scientists have <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">serious reservations</a> about the finch’s ability to survive. </p>
<p>The Black Finch Project was launched by Melbourne artist Charlotte Watson, who <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/ByHv3cbgDVH/">proposed that</a> “we send the QLD government 1,000 black finches; drawings, sculptures, anything to make known the lives of these creatures. No text. No slogans. No messages of rage. Just dead finches”.</p>
<p>The results are a mix of professional and amateur art, mostly realistic portrayals of the little bird either standing alone or dead and upturned. Echoing the seemingly casual disregard by politicians for the finch, Laura E. Kennedy designed a circular panelled portrait of the small bird with a speech bubble that simply says “bye”; also clear in its message, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/Byjj7V6AMTf/">Stephanie Hicks</a> has contributed a pair of monochrome images in which the finch itself is whited out.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/By7mht5nTWY","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>The Black Finch Project artworks have been referred to in the media as “heartbreaking”, with the federal environment minister Sussan Ley rather patronisingly describing some of those received by her office as “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-18/anti-adani-artists-sending-black-throated-finches-to-politicians/11318918">heartfelt</a>”, saying she could recognise the “passion” and “creativity” behind them. </p>
<p>If she had described them, conversely, as “informed”, “insightful” and “thought-provoking”, the creators of the artworks could at least be satisfied that their message had hit their target. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284908/original/file-20190719-116579-zt3i34.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284908/original/file-20190719-116579-zt3i34.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284908/original/file-20190719-116579-zt3i34.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284908/original/file-20190719-116579-zt3i34.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284908/original/file-20190719-116579-zt3i34.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284908/original/file-20190719-116579-zt3i34.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284908/original/file-20190719-116579-zt3i34.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284908/original/file-20190719-116579-zt3i34.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=775&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Black Finch Project was designed to contain no messages of rage - ‘just dead finches’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Linda Studenta</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Making art and craft <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-craft-is-good-for-our-health-98755">can be therapeutic</a>. The artist might achieve a sense of catharsis and even empowerment. Yet unless the artwork’s targeted audience is an openminded one, the artwork, no matter how accomplished, will have little impact on the status quo. </p>
<p>While the Black Finch Project is gaining traction on Instagram and successfully building public awareness of the issue, it will take more than art to stop the Adani juggernaut in Queensland.</p>
<p>History shows that art does have the potential to illuminate, educate and even change minds. As <a href="http://www.italianrenaissanceresources.com/units/unit-6/sub-page-03/painting-in-the-service-of-religion/">Friar Michele da Carcano</a> explained in the late 1400s, narrative art commissioned by churches was introduced for three reasons. </p>
<p>First, for the benefit of “simple” folk who are unable to read, a reason which today might more appropriately be applied to impatient people unwilling to invest the time to read news and analyses; secondly, on account of what he called the “emotional sluggishness” of those who are not easily moved by words but can be influenced by pictures; and finally because many people cannot retain in their memories what they hear, but they do remember if they see images. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284909/original/file-20190719-116547-1ba7izw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284909/original/file-20190719-116547-1ba7izw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284909/original/file-20190719-116547-1ba7izw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284909/original/file-20190719-116547-1ba7izw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284909/original/file-20190719-116547-1ba7izw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284909/original/file-20190719-116547-1ba7izw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284909/original/file-20190719-116547-1ba7izw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284909/original/file-20190719-116547-1ba7izw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=637&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Black Finch Art project is gaining awareness, but will this be enough?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amaya Iturri</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-can-art-really-make-a-difference-91491">Friday essay: can art really make a difference?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Economics generally trumps science, which always trumps sentiment in environmental debates. Unlike 15th century churchgoers, today’s politicians are pragmatic, not easily swayed by emotion, let alone art. </p>
<p>The threatened extinction of the black-throated finch is more than an emotional issue. If art is going to have an impact in debates which rely on scientific fact to provide gravity for environmentally-based protest movements, it needs to take a leaf out of Friar da Carcano’s book and tell the full story. Sentimental images of baby Jesus, no matter how creative, passionate and heartfelt, were never solely relied upon during the Renaissance to effectively convey biblical tales. </p>
<p>Ironically, despite the Black Finch Project’s request for “no text”, one of the most succinct contributions is not by an artist but by Melbourne tour guide Matthew Webb, well placed to explain what we’re looking at. It <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BzHJPZSgYKG/">includes the words</a> “If the land Adani has set aside for the black-throated finch was suitable, they’d already live there”. That message is clear, even to the most time-poor, emotionally sluggish and forgetful of people.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120593/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felicity Fenner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australian artists are protesting the Adani mine’s potential impact on the black-throated finch. The project is gaining traction online, but in this case, emotive art might not be enough.Felicity Fenner, Associate Professor at UNSW Art & Design, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1204872019-07-17T05:12:02Z2019-07-17T05:12:02ZAdani has set a dangerous precedent in requesting scientists’ names<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284435/original/file-20190717-173370-47h9j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Galilee waterhole is part of the area potentially affected by Adani's Carmichael mine.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/stopadani/35457088785/in/photolist-W2dRbZ-RRgS71-Wyjvxs-TpUwSz-C92xfq-Twc5sF-C91x4q-ZccVyL-CpNCZw-CpNEiU-Z88aP7-YdU29T-VSdV66-E5FkK3-UaEcWQ-ZcfkA5-ZS8Fn2-UaEeKE-UpftVE-VVQueF-CpP6XQ-YuFC5p-Yajoj5-WyjwMw-UaEdt1-C926TJ-ZvWsra-Z86y4G-ZS8FQg-U4oQ5E-FJ4T3y-UGbuyd-YrgQsC-Vn7xeY-YRexzq-YRdTdq-WUdP79-CpNh9o-UyienF-TpTwni-Yrgriw-UU3B8y-R9cdDU-UbZozT-CpPiSw-ZvWvar-YckmjD-ZdFMmY-UGbzr9-UDrJ1v">Stop Adani</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A freedom of information request has revealed Adani sought the names of CSIRO and Geoscience Australia scientists involved in reviewing <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-16/adani-requests-names-of-csiro-scientists/11308616">groundwater management plans</a> related to its proposed Carmichael mine.</p>
<p>Adani argued it required a list of people involved in the review so as to have “peace of mind” that it was being treated fairly and impartially on a scientific rather than a political basis. </p>
<p>Ten days before Adani’s request, Geoscience Australia’s acting director of groundwater advice and data <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-16/adani-requests-names-of-csiro-scientists/11308616">reportedly raised concerns</a> that Adani had “actively searched/viewed” his LinkedIn profile and that of a colleague.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/interactive-everything-you-need-to-know-about-adani-from-cost-environmental-impact-and-jobs-to-its-possible-future-116901">Interactive: Everything you need to know about Adani – from cost, environmental impact and jobs to its possible future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Significantly, Adani’s request to the government was made before CSIRO and Geoscience Australia had reported their review findings back to the Queensland government. </p>
<p>While the federal Department of the Environment and Energy <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/16/adani-justified-in-demanding-names-of-csiro-scientists-deputy-pm-says">reportedly declined to hand over the names</a>, the fact the letter was sent in the first place is concerning. It fundamentally interferes with the capacity of individual scientists to provide clear and informed evaluation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284433/original/file-20190717-173360-d8jif6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284433/original/file-20190717-173360-d8jif6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284433/original/file-20190717-173360-d8jif6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284433/original/file-20190717-173360-d8jif6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284433/original/file-20190717-173360-d8jif6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284433/original/file-20190717-173360-d8jif6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284433/original/file-20190717-173360-d8jif6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/284433/original/file-20190717-173360-d8jif6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=817&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The letter obtained under freedom of information by environmental group Lock The Gate. Click to enlarge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lock the Gate</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Was Adani denied procedural fairness?</h2>
<p>In the absence of clear legislation to the contrary, government decision-makers have a general duty to accord “procedural fairness” to those affected by their decisions. While procedural fairness is protected by common law, <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2017C00238">Commonwealth legislation</a> also provides some protection, and a breach of procedural fairness is a ground for judicial review.</p>
<p>What exactly constitutes procedural fairness varies from case to case. Fundamentally, the principles of procedural fairness acknowledge the power imbalance that can arise between an administrative decision-maker and an individual citizen. Traditionally, procedural fairness has two elements: the <strong>fair hearing rule</strong> and the <strong>rule against bias</strong>. </p>
<p>The <strong>fair hearing rule</strong> requires a person – or company, in this case – to have an opportunity to be heard before a decision is made affecting their interest. </p>
<p>The <strong>rule against bias</strong> ensures the decision-maker can be objectively considered to be impartial and not to have prejudged a decision. This rule is flexible, and must be determined by reference to a hypothetical observer who is fair minded and informed of the circumstances.</p>
<p>There is no indication of any breach of procedural fairness in the environmental assessment process. The review of the groundwater management plan was conducted rigorously, according to the public interest. </p>
<p>The letter sent by Adani requesting the names of scientists was allegedly grounded in concerns about the possibility of anti-Adani activism by expert reviewers. Despite this, Adani made it clear that it was not explicitly alleging bias. Its objective, the letter said, was a desire to be “treated fairly and in a manner consistent with other industry participants”.</p>
<h2>The real purpose of the letter</h2>
<p>If Adani was seriously concerned about a breach of procedural fairness in the review of their groundwater management plan, it would have sought a judicial review. It did not – because there was no breach.</p>
<p>The scientists working at CSIRO and Geoscience Australia are all experts in their disciplines. They were engaged in the important process of determining whether Adani’s plan for managing groundwater around their mine would meet the environmental conditions of their mining licence. In other words, the scientists were doing their job.</p>
<p>Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack has said he “understands” Adani’s actions because of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/16/adani-justified-in-demanding-names-of-csiro-scientists-deputy-pm-says">delays associated with the review</a>, but this is not how the system works.<br>
The delays occurred because the original plan submitted by Adani had to be <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/cb8a9e41-eba5-47a4-8b72-154d0a5a6956/files/csiro-geoscience-australia-final-advice.pdf">revised following expert review</a>, and the updated plan required detailed evaluation. The mine could potentially have a <a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">serious impact</a> on groundwater, the communities and ecosystems dependent on the water, and the nationally significant Doongmabulla Springs; this deserves careful scrutiny. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">Unpacking the flaws in Adani's water management plan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As Adani has not brought an action for judicial review, the substantive purpose of the letter appears to be, as suggested by CSIRO representatives, to pressure scientists and potentially seek to discredit their work. The potentially <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6275692/adani-wanted-names-of-csiro-scientists/">chilling effect</a> is clear. </p>
<h2>Concern about climate change is not bias</h2>
<p>The profound concerns raised by climate change and fossil fuel emissions are shared by many scientists around the world. The reports prepared for the International Panel on Climate Change make it clear that coal fired electricity <a href="https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf">must drop to nearly zero by 2050</a> to keep warming within 1.5°C.</p>
<p>This shared concern does not make scientists political activists. Nor does it prevent scientists from acting fairly and impartially when reviewing a groundwater management plan. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-uns-1-5-c-special-climate-report-at-a-glance-104547">The UN's 1.5°C special climate report at a glance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>An acceptance of climate science and even a belief that coal-fired energy should be decommissioned does not constitute bias. A reasonable bystander would expect most environmental scientists to be concerned about climate change.</p>
<p>It is crucial the environmental assessment process for large coal mines remains rigorously independent and absolutely free from any direct or indirect pressure from the coal industry. This is even more important when dealing with groundwater assessments, given their economic, social and ecological significance. </p>
<p>The letter, sent before the review was handed down, sets a dangerous precedent. Not because it suggests the scientists were impartial or there was any procedural unfairness involved in the process. But rather, because it jeopardises the independence of our scientists who, in seeking to ensure the longevity of our water, food and energy resources, carry a heavy responsibility to the public interest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120487/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Adani’s request for the names of individual scientists reviewing their groundwater management plan has chilling implications for scientific independence.Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1187602019-06-13T20:16:55Z2019-06-13T20:16:55ZAdani is cleared to start digging its coal mine – six key questions answered<p>There is now nothing standing between Indian mining giant Adani and the coal buried in Queensland’s Galilee Basin.</p>
<p>By approving the Adani’s groundwater management plan on June 13, the Queensland government has given the final green light to the company’s controversial Carmichael coal mine. </p>
<p><strong>What did the Queensland government just approve?</strong></p>
<p>The Queensland Department of Environment and Science (DES) approved the project’s <a href="https://www.adaniaustralia.com/-/media/Project/Australia/Our-Projects--Businesses/mine-environment-reporting/GDEMP-Final-V11b-19March2019.pdf?la=en&hash=C4988A8485428FD234C4A09023D08B34">Groundwater Dependent Ecosystem Management Plan</a>, which had previously won <a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">federal government approval</a>. </p>
<p>This plan outlines Adani’s proposed strategies to protect ecosystems that depend on groundwater, such as the <a href="https://www.adaniaustralia.com/-/media/Project/Australia/Fact-sheets/ADI0025_Doongmabulla-Springs_v9_WEB6.pdf">Doongmabulla Springs wetland</a>, which some experts have <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/scientists-say-desert-springs-face-extinction-under-adani-mine-plan">warned</a> could be destroyed by the project. The plan’s approval at a state level removes the final legislative hurdle standing in the mine’s way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">Unpacking the flaws in Adani's water management plan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Didn’t the federal government suffer a legal setback this week relating to the mine? Why is the mine still clear to proceed?</strong></p>
<p>On June 12, in response to a legal challenge by the Australian Conservation Foundation, the federal government <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/12/adani-coalmine-federal-government-loses-legal-challenge-on-water-assessment">conceded in the federal court</a> that it failed to properly consider public submissions in passing judgement on Adani’s <a href="http://epbcnotices.environment.gov.au/_entity/annotation/2633c814-db6a-e811-817f-005056ba00a7/a71d58ad-4cba-48b6-8dab-f3091fc31cd5?t=1537325913242">North Galilee Water Scheme</a>.</p>
<p>This scheme concerns Adani’s plans for taking water from the Suttor River to the east of the mine, which will be required for mining operations. </p>
<p>The federal government will now need to reappraise this proposal. But the approval to take river water does not impact Adani’s ability to start mine construction.</p>
<p><strong>Has Adani made significant changes to its groundwater plan in light of scientific criticism?</strong></p>
<p>In February 2019, CSIRO and Geoscience Australia <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/cb8a9e41-eba5-47a4-8b72-154d0a5a6956/files/csiro-geoscience-australia-final-advice.pdf">advised the Queensland government</a> that they did not consider Adani’s groundwater plan adequate for assessing the risk to local springs. They recommended more research drilling, monitoring and analysis, to better understand the source aquifer for the springs. </p>
<p>On June 7, CSIRO and Geoscience Australia responded to a series of questions from the Queensland government. They effectively reiterated their earlier concerns, including that Adani’s groundwater model is not fit for the purpose of assessing the mine’s likely impacts to the springs.</p>
<p>Among a raft of suggested changes to the groundwater plan, they recommended that Adani make firmer commitments to protecting the springs. However, Adani has not strengthened this part of the plan, and actions required to address impacts to the springs remain vague.</p>
<p>Adani has made some changes to the investigations it is required to complete within one to two years. But there appears to be no new scientific work or findings in the most recent version of the groundwater plan to address scientific uncertainties or flaws in the modelling, as pointed out by CSIRO, Geoscience Australia and <a href="http://doi.org/10.25957/5cf4adbc6f43c">others</a>.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/398/cd00e6e8d7813aaa023cd8e84ad3117a1effa163/site/index.html" frameborder="0" height="600" width="100%"> </iframe>
<hr>
<p><strong>Does Adani know where the Doongmabulla Springs water comes from?</strong></p>
<p>No. Adani and the Queensland government seem relatively confident that the source aquifer for the springs is a geological unit called the <a href="https://asud.ga.gov.au/search-stratigraphic-units/results/4139">Clematis Sandstone</a>. But the Queensland government acknowledges that some uncertainty remains. The CSIRO and Geoscience Australia advice makes clear the springs could in fact flow from multiple sources, in agreement with a consortium of <a href="http://doi.org/10.25957/5cf4adbc6f43c">other experts</a>. Adani has been asked to determine this during the first two years of the mine’s operation.</p>
<p><strong>So have the scientific concerns been satisfied or not?</strong></p>
<p>The final groundwater plan is based on science that has been shown to be questionable and containing crucial errors and data gaps, as indicated in the CSIRO/Geoscience Australia reviews in both February and June 2019. The plan also fails to consider key scientific issues that we <a href="http://doi.org/10.25957/5cf4adbc6f43c">raised</a> in collaboration with colleagues from other universities. The shortcomings in the science raised by a range of scientists from multiple universities and agencies will therefore remain unaddressed until after mining activity begins, risking irreversible harm to the Doongmabulla Springs.</p>
<p>We believe that uncertainties in the future groundwater impacts from the mine are high, but could have been addressed if Adani had acted upon the advice it has repeatedly received over the past six years. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/adanis-finch-plan-is-approved-just-weeks-after-being-sent-back-to-the-drawing-board-118114">Adani's finch plan is approved, just weeks after being sent back to the drawing board</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>After so many government approvals processes, court rulings, and legal challenges, does Adani truly have permission to start digging now?</strong></p>
<p>Yes. Adani’s excavations will mark the start of a highly uncertain experiment into the effects of mega-scale disturbance to a natural groundwater flow system and the ecosystems that depend on it. Time will tell whether the benefits of the mine warrant the impacts it will cause. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-adani-mine-gets-built-it-will-be-thanks-to-politicians-on-two-continents-118043">If the Adani mine gets built, it will be thanks to politicians, on two continents</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118760/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Werner has previously received funding from the Environmental Defenders Office (Qld) to serve as an expert witness in the Queensland Land Court case: "Adani Mining Pty Ltd v Land Services of Coast and Country Inc & Ors (2015) QLC 48".</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Currell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It’s been years in the making, but Adani’s controversial Queensland coal mine is finally shovel-ready. Yet significant scientific questions remain, such as the impact on the region’s aquifers.Adrian Werner, Professor of Hydrogeology, Flinders UniversityMatthew Currell, Associate Professor in Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1176822019-06-02T20:07:30Z2019-06-02T20:07:30ZExplaining Adani: why would a billionaire persist with a mine that will probably lose money?<p>By mid-June, if everything goes as expected, Adani Australia will receive the final environmental approvals for its proposed Carmichael coal mine and rail line development. </p>
<p>Newspaper reports based on briefings from Adani suggest that, once the approvals are in place, the company could begin digging “<a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/digging-on-carmichael-mine-could-begin-within-weeks/news-story/c1ac91cd04e9bc7b792769c04457f492">within days</a>”.</p>
<p>On Friday the Queensland government <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/adani-wins-vital-approval-for-qld-mine-20190531-p51t5g">approved</a> Adani’s plan to protect a rare bird, apparently leaving it with just final regulatory hurdle: approval for its plan to manage groundwater.</p>
<p>Its billboards in Brisbane read: “<a href="https://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/townsville/adani-takes-carmichael-mine-plight-to-people-of-brisbane/news-story/bd3a82038db2173ec5546b89b130f913">We can start tomorrow if we get the nod today</a>”. </p>
<p>But several big obstacles remain. Even after governments are out of the way, it will have to deal with markets and companies that aren’t keen on the project.</p>
<h2>Obstacles aplenty</h2>
<p>First up, there’s the problem of access to Aurizon’s rail line. Adani originally planned to build its own 388km railway from the Galilee Basin to its coal terminal at Abbot Point. </p>
<p>However, in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/adanis-new-mini-version-of-its-mega-mine-still-faces-some-big-hurdles-108038">scaled-down version of the project</a> announced last year, Adani plans to build only 200km of track, before connecting to the existing Goonyella line owned by the rail freight company Aurizon. </p>
<p>That requires an agreement of access pricing and conditions. Aurizon is legally obliged to negotiate with Adani, but has shown itself to be in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/11/adani-faces-questions-over-who-will-pay-for-aurizon-rail-link-upgrade">no hurry to reach a deal</a>.</p>
<p>Then there’s insurance. Faced with rejection by every major bank in the world, Adani announced it would fund the project from its own resources. But now insurers, including nearly all the big European firms and Australia’s own QBE, are saying <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/insurers-shun-adanis-carmichael-coal-mine-says-activist-group-market-forces-20181219-h19ale">the same sort of thing</a> as the financiers. </p>
<p>Without insurance the project can’t proceed, and the pool of potential insurers is shrinking all the time.</p>
<h2>Not particularly financial</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277464/original/file-20190601-69067-1599l53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277464/original/file-20190601-69067-1599l53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277464/original/file-20190601-69067-1599l53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277464/original/file-20190601-69067-1599l53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277464/original/file-20190601-69067-1599l53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=804&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277464/original/file-20190601-69067-1599l53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277464/original/file-20190601-69067-1599l53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277464/original/file-20190601-69067-1599l53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1010&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adani Group founder Gautam Adani.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gautam_Adani.jpg">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But the most fundamental problem may lie within the Adani group itself. The US$2 billion required from the project will ultimately come, in large measure, from chairman Gautam Adani’s own pocket. </p>
<p>With an estimated wealth of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gautam_Adani">US$7 billion</a>, he can certainly afford to pay if he chooses to. But it would represent a huge bet on the long-term future of coal-fired electricity, at very bad odds.</p>
<p>In my analysis of the original Carmichael mine proposal in 2017 I concluded that the profit from operating the coal mine would be around <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/content/economic-nonviability-adani-galilee-basin-project">A$15 per tonne</a>.</p>
<p>A recent analysis of the revised project by David Fickling for Bloomberg yielded a marginally more favorable estimate of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-23/the-math-on-adani-s-carmichael-coal-mine-doesn-t-add-up">US$16 per tonne</a>, or US$160 million a year for the initial output of 10 million tonnes a year. </p>
<p>That’s a small return on A$2 billion, before considering overheads and depreciation.</p>
<h2>It’d need a long life…</h2>
<p>Such an investment could only be profitable on the basis of a mine with a long life and substantial potential for future expansion. How likely is that? When the start of construction was re-announced last November, it was suggested the coal might be shipped by 2021. With six months’ delay, and the insurance problem noted already, 2022 seems like the earliest possible date.</p>
<p>But by that time, the current construction pipeline for coal-fired plants in India will have been worked through, and very few new ones will be being commissioned. A mere <a href="https://numerical.co.in/numerons/collection/59e44f88250a41f81b6ef7b9">8 gigawatts</a> of new coal-fired power was commissioned in 2017-18, partly offset by 3.6GW of coal-fired power stations that closed down.</p>
<p>The Indian government has stated that no new coal plants will be needed after 2022, or 2027 at the latest.</p>
<h2>…which it might not get</h2>
<p>In these circumstances, newly opened coal mines will be able to sell coal only if they can displace existing suppliers. This suggests prices will have to fall to a level sufficient to ensure further closures of existing mines. Such a fall would erode or eliminate Adani’s already thin margins.</p>
<p>By 2030, with the project still in its relatively early stages, most developed countries will have stopped using coal-fired power. The others will be moving fast in that direction. So far under President Trump, the United States has closed 50 coal-fired power stations, and will almost certainly never build another.</p>
<p>The only glimmer of hope for coal has been in less developed countries in Asia. But over the course of this year, even these hopes have dimmed. Major banks in Japan and Singapore have withdrawn from funding new coal projects, following the lead of the global banks based in Europe and the US. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-the-adani-mine-gets-built-it-will-be-thanks-to-politicians-on-two-continents-118043">If the Adani mine gets built, it will be thanks to politicians, on two continents</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>That leaves South Korea and China as potential sources of funding. Korea is already <a href="https://www.powermag.com/south-korean-president-details-phase-out-of-coal-nuclear-power/">phasing out</a> coal-fired power domestically and its banks are being pressured to divest globally. The option of relying solely on China is problematic to say the least.</p>
<p>To sum up, unless current trends change dramatically, the economic life of the Carmichael mine is unlikely to be more than a decade – nowhere near enough to recover a A$2 billion investment.</p>
<h2>Explaining Adani</h2>
<p>So what could be going on? Perhaps Gautam Adani is willing to lose a large share of his wealth simply to show he can’t be pushed around. Alternatively, as on numerous previous occasions, his promises of an imminent start to work may prove to be baseless. </p>
<p>The third, and most worrying, possibility is that the political pressure to deliver the promised Adani jobs will lead to a large infusion of public money, all of which will be lost. </p>
<p>The A$900 million Adani sought from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility in 2017 would be enough to keep the project going for a couple of years, without the need for Mr Adani to risk his own money. It now appears that a similar sum <a href="https://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-fix-is-in-adani-hooks-indias-poor-and-australias-taxpayers/">might be sought from the Export Finance and Insurance Corporation</a>.</p>
<p>All this is speculation. Assuming the approvals come through by the Queensland premier’s self-imposed deadline of <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-government-gives-less-than-three-weeks-to-finish-environmental-approvals/news-story/e6a52f1fc2a1040bdf8e8d3f137364a9">June 13</a>, we will find out soon enough whether something happens, or whether something else will stay in the way.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/interactive-everything-you-need-to-know-about-adani-from-cost-environmental-impact-and-jobs-to-its-possible-future-116901">Interactive: Everything you need to know about Adani – from cost, environmental impact and jobs to its possible future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117682/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a long-standing critic of the Carmichael mine project and has worked with a number of NGOs opposed to the project, including Farmers for Climate Action.</span></em></p>Gautam Adani might be willing to lose a large share of his wealth to show that he can’t be pushed around, or he might want more public money.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1181142019-05-31T05:32:00Z2019-05-31T05:32:00ZAdani’s finch plan is approved, just weeks after being sent back to the drawing board<p>The Queensland government has ticked off a crucial environmental approval for Adani’s Carmichael coalmine, bringing the contentious project a step closer to becoming reality.</p>
<p>It has approved Adani’s proposed management plan for the endangered black-throated finch, less than a month after the state’s environment department announced a delay in approval because the plan was <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">judged to be inadequate</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">Why Adani's finch plan was rejected, and what comes next</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Four days after the May 18 federal election, in which the mine’s future was a prominent issue, Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-22/palaszczuk-says-community-fed-up-over-adani/11138316">called for an end to the delays</a> and uncertainty.</p>
<p>In a statement issued today, the government said it has now approved a “strengthened” version of the plan, submitted by Adani earlier this week.</p>
<p>Under the revised plan, Adani has now committed to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>“establish enhanced understanding” of the finch, with the help of “appropriate population studies”</p></li>
<li><p>implement “appropriate monitoring protocols” to track the finch’s population over time</p></li>
<li><p>restrict grazing in nearby areas.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The only remaining state environmental approval for the project now is Adani’s groundwater management plan, on which a decision is due by June 13.</p>
<h2>Bad plan caused the delays</h2>
<p>As members of the scientific panel that reviewed the finch management plan, we can understand the Premier’s frustration. There is no excuse for such a poor plan to have been put forward for approval when the company has been aware for almost a decade that the land it wants to mine is home to the largest known remaining population of the black-throated finch.</p>
<p>There has already been ample time to undertake the studies Adani has pledged to carry out in the future. Had it done so before now, it could have put its claims to be able to manage the finch’s extinction risk on a much more solid footing.</p>
<p>As it is, the plan we reviewed made biologically improbable assumptions about the finch, while ignoring what is known about the finch’s precipitous decline so far. Under the plan, people with the curious title of “fauna spotter-catchers” were to find finches and move them “to suitable habitat adjacent to the disturbance, if practical” before the habitat is destroyed.</p>
<p>It sounds impractical, and will in all likelihood prove to be so. If the adjacent habitat already has finches, it is likely to be “full” and so won’t be able to support mining refugees. If it lacks finches, there is probably a very good reason. </p>
<p>The finch has been observed only a handful of times in just a tiny proportion of the area purchased for conservation purposes near the mine site. The finch has had more than 10,000 years to occupy and breed in the proposed conservation area that is supposed to offset the impact of the mine. It hasn’t, and it probably won’t. </p>
<p>As far as can be determined by overlaying the available maps, the proposed conservation area has a different geology and soil type. Adani has categorically failed to provide robust scientific evidence to demonstrate that the conservation reserve will adequately offset the loss of the finches and the habitat in the mined area. It has had more than 10 years to conduct the science to provide the evidence.</p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/398/cd00e6e8d7813aaa023cd8e84ad3117a1effa163/site/index.html" frameborder="0" height="600" width="100%"> </iframe>
<hr>
<p>Meanwhile, before the existing habitat is mined, the plan had talked about grazing being used to control bushfire fuel loads and reduce the abundance of a weed called <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/aec.12039">buffel grass</a>. Yet grazing is thought to be the main reason the finches have disappeared from most of their once vast range – they once occurred from the Atherton tablelands to northern New South Wales. </p>
<p>The new plan is said to “restrict grazing” but no details are yet available. Under the original plan, the cattle would have got fat on the buffel grass pastures just as they did in all the places where the finch once lived. </p>
<h2>Rigorous research</h2>
<p>What must really frustrate the Queensland Premier is the contrast between Adani’s efforts with the black-throated finch and the much more rigorous work done by mining companies who find themselves in similar situations. Rio Tinto, for example, is currently funding <a href="http://www.riotinto.com/media/media-releases-237_26199.aspx">high-quality research</a> on two other birds, the palm cockatoo and red goshawk, ahead of its planned expansion of bauxite operations on Cape York Peninsula.</p>
<p>Vista Gold, meanwhile, funded <a href="http://www.mttodd.com.au/gouldian-finch.html">research on stress levels in Gouldian finches</a> long before mining was planned to begin at its Mt Todd goldmine in the Northern Territory.</p>
<p>In criticising Adani’s plan, we are not criticising mining. Like all Australians, we use the products of mining every day. We enjoy a high standard of living that is delivered partly by royalties from mining. We also understand that miners (and politicians) in Queensland want to see jobs created.</p>
<p>Most mining companies, however, provide jobs while willingly abiding by national and state legislation. They compromise where necessary to minimise environmental harm. And crucially, they commission research to demonstrate how they can mitigate damage well before that damage occurs, rather than when their operations are already underway.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/does-offsetting-work-to-make-up-for-habitat-lost-to-mining-27699">Does 'offsetting' work to make up for habitat lost to mining?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In contrast, the so-called research and monitoring that went into Adani’s finch plan seems only to conclude that more research is needed. After nine years, Adani did not even know the population size of the finch, how it moves around the landscape, or even what it eats. </p>
<p>Given the time available, this bird could (and should) have been among the best-studied in Australia. The management plan could then have been based on robust evidence that would show how best to safeguard the finch population.</p>
<p>Now the research and monitoring is a hurried add-on with no proof that the threat posed to the finch can actually be solved and an extinction averted. Given the high stakes involved, Australians might reasonably have expected something altogether more rigorous.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Garnett has received funding from the Commonwealth Government for research on threatened species and the Queensland government to, among other things, review the first draft of the Black-throated Finch Management Plan submitted for approval by Adani mines. The views expressed here, however, pertain only to those aspects of the Carmichael planning process that are publicly available. He also works closely with BirdLife Australia on threatened birds and has consulted to mining and industrial projects on environmental approval processes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Wintle has received research funding through a variety of research fundings agreements from The Australian Research Council (ARC), the Victorian, NSW, Queensland, Australian and multiple local Governments, Bush Heritage Australia, The Nature Conservancy, the Helmholtz Institute and the Holsworth Wildlife Research Endowment. Brendan Wintle led the review of the Black-throated finch management plan commissioned by the Queensland Government. The views expressed here pertain only to those aspects of the Carmichael mine planning process that are revealed in publicly available documents.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government, and the Government of Victoria. He was a member of the University of Melbourne panel appointed by the Queensland Government to review Adani's Black-throated Finch management plan. David Lindenmayer has conducted research and monitoring on numerous species of Australian birds over the past 25 years. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Franklin was a member of the University of Melbourne panel appointed by the Queensland government department to review Adani's Black-throated Finch management plan. He has worked extensively in past decades with seed-eating birds in northern Australia and, more recently, consulted to a mining company about another species of finch. He is a member of BirdLife Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Woinarski receives funding for research from the Threatened Species Recovery Hub of the National Environmental Science Program, and was a member of the University of Melbourne panel appointed by the Queensland government department to review Adani's black-throated finch management plan.</span></em></p>The Queensland government has green-lit an updated version of Adani’s plan to protect the black-throated finch at its Carmichael mine site, after the earlier plan was branded inadequate.Stephen Garnett, Professor of Conservation and Sustainable Livelihoods, Charles Darwin UniversityBrendan Wintle, Professor Conservation Ecology, The University of MelbourneDavid Lindenmayer, Professor, The Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityDon Franklin, Adjunct Research Fellow, Research Institute for Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin UniversityJohn Woinarski, Professor (conservation biology), Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1180432019-05-30T19:54:32Z2019-05-30T19:54:32ZIf the Adani mine gets built, it will be thanks to politicians, on two continents<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277155/original/file-20190530-69063-1elkocc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C28%2C928%2C430&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Re-elected Indian prime minister Narendra Modi might have helped the Adani mine in the Galilee Basin to get over the line. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://southwind.com.au/">southwind.com.au</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the final approval of the Adani Carmichael coal mine now <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-23/macmines-abandons-mining-lease-applications/11138310">apparently imminent</a>, it is important to ask how it has seemingly defied the assessment of experts that it is not financially viable.</p>
<p>After all, it’s only a week since the Chinese owner of another mine planned for the Galilee Basin, the China Stone mine, <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2018-11-26/china-stone-coal-mine-rolls-forward-and-back-on-australian-state-go-ahead-101352021.html">suspended its bid for mining leases</a> because of commercial considerations.</p>
<p>The numbers <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-numbers-on-adani-simply-don-t-add-up-20190524-p51qoy.html">appear not to add up</a> because the location is remote, the coal would be expensive to transport, and the price is <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/ampla-energy-transformation-presentation-oct18.pdf">expected to fall</a>.</p>
<p>But such a purely financial analysis ignores the political forces driving the development of the coal industry in both India and Australia. </p>
<h2>Mates in India, mates in Australia</h2>
<p>In short, both are locked into what I describe as a model of <a href="https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/adani-and-coal-wars/">crony capitalism</a>, in which special deals are handed out to projects such as Adani that tip the scales in favour of development. </p>
<p>The actions of China and Japan in deploying enormous state power to export their respective coal technologies to Southeast Asia strengthens the hands of those pushing such developments.</p>
<p>In my recent book, <a href="https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/adani-and-coal-wars/">Adani and the war over coal</a>, I outline a network of power that for several decades has promoted the development of Australia’s coal resources in the interests of national and international corporations. </p>
<p>The mining companies, then the big four banks became part of it, lending billions in the rush to develop Australian coal mines as Asian countries sought to lock in long-term supplies. The Minerals Council of Australia, the New South Wales Minerals Council and the Queensland Resources Council, with their collective close ties to both political parties, handled public relations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-the-lnp-returned-to-power-is-there-anything-left-in-adanis-way-117506">With the LNP returned to power, is there anything left in Adani's way?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Yet they have faced resistance from the rise of an anti-Adani movement that links grassroots environmentalists, peak environmental lobby groups and progressive organisations such as GetUp!</p>
<p>By mid-2018, these campaigners seemed to have backed the Carmichael mine into a cul de sac by scaring off both Australian and foreign investors. They had also pressured the Queensland government to withdraw its support for a loan to the project from the Commonwealth government’s <a href="http://agriculture.gov.au/water/national/national-water-infrastructure-development-fund">Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility</a>. </p>
<p>Then Adani surprised them by announcing that it would scale back the project and <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/adani-to-selffund-2b-carmichael-mine-construction-to-start-before-christmas-20181129-h18i91">fund it from its own resources</a>. On the face of it this seemed unlikely, but it had help.</p>
<h2>Adani and Modi have history</h2>
<p>The chairman and founder of the Adani group, Gautam Adani, has had a long relationship with the recently re-elected Prime Minister of India, <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/the-stupendous-rise-of-indias-new-super-rich-20180926-h15vf4">Narendra Modi</a>. </p>
<p>Modi played a decisive role in paving the way for Adani’s latest mega deal: selling coal-fired power from a plant in the Indian state of Jharkhand <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/govt-approves-adani-powers-rs-14000-cr-jharkhand-sez-project/articleshow/68240390.cms">to nearby Bangladesh</a>. </p>
<p>The power for Bangladesh is set to be fired by Carmichael coal. Many Australians would be concerned to learn that our coal is to be used to power one of the most <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-poses-dire-challenges-for-bangladesh/a-46740543">climate-challenged</a> countries on the planet, but we have this on the authority of Adani’s previous Australian-based chief executive, <a href="https://www.themorningbulletin.com.au/news/adani-wants-cqs-coal-to-lift-millions-out-of-pover/3371530/">Jeyakuma Janakaraj</a>. </p>
<p>Twelve days before the 2019 Indian election date was announced, the Modi government gave approval for an Adani project in Jharkhand to become the first designated power project in India to get the status and benefits of a Special Economic Zone, <a href="https://scroll.in/article/917532/in-final-days-of-modi-government-adani-project-in-jharkhand-becomes-india-s-first-power-sector-sez">saving Adani billions of dollars in taxes</a>, including clean energy taxes. </p>
<p>The Indian state will provide land, infrastructure and water for the project and shoulder the burden of pollution. The cost of the power to Bangladesh is <a href="https://scroll.in/article/917532/in-final-days-of-modi-government-adani-project-in-jharkhand-becomes-india-s-first-power-sector-sez">not expected to be cheap</a>.</p>
<h2>Will we be asked for more?</h2>
<p>Adani’s form suggests it might come back to Australia for more. Following the re-election of the Morrison government it is already being speculated that the pro-coal Minister for Resources, Matt Canavan, will revisit the original proposal for a <a href="http://www.mattcanavan.com.au/it_s_right_to_consider_adani_s_request_for_loan">billion-dollar government-sponsored loan</a> from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility to construct the railway from the Galilee Basin to the Abbot Point coal port.</p>
<p>The Adani saga points to a critical flaw in the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a>. It is an agreement between nation states, but what those states do is often determined by arrangements between politicians and private companies that feel no particular obligation to keep global warming to less than two degrees.</p>
<p>We are pawns in a larger, climate-destroying game.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/interactive-everything-you-need-to-know-about-adani-from-cost-environmental-impact-and-jobs-to-its-possible-future-116901">Interactive: Everything you need to know about Adani – from cost, environmental impact and jobs to its possible future</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/118043/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Quentin Beresford does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>India’s re-elected prime minister has paved the way for Queensland coal to power Bangladesh.Quentin Beresford, Professor of Politics, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1175062019-05-22T07:23:58Z2019-05-22T07:23:58ZWith the LNP returned to power, is there anything left in Adani’s way?<p>After months of “start” and “stop” Adani campaigning, the coalmine is poised to go ahead following the surprise success of the Coalition government at the federal election. </p>
<p>So is anything still stopping the coalmine from being built?</p>
<p>Australia has a federal system of government, but states own coal. This means the Queensland Labor government is responsible for issuing the Adani mining licence.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1129699220334604290"}"></div></p>
<p>And there are suggestions pressure is mounting in the state Labor party for the final approvals to be passed. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/national/adani-blamed-for-labor-s-wipe-out-in-queensland-20190519-p51own">Strategists have argued</a> the state government must approve the Adani mine if they are to be re-elected next year. One of the reasons Labor lost votes in Queensland may have been because of perceived delays in the approval process by the Queensland Department of Environment and Science.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-its-the-internal-agitators-who-are-bugging-scott-morrison-on-adani-115076">View from The Hill: It's the internal agitators who are bugging Scott Morrison on Adani</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Now, Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has appointed her coordinator-general to oversee the remaining approvals. In a press conference, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-22/adani-approvals-removal-environment-department/11138140">she said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I think that the community is fed up with the processes, I know I’m fed up with the processes, I know my local members are fed up with the processes … We need some certainty and we need some timeframes — enough is enough.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But what has “delayed” the state government so far is its legal duty to make sure the coalmine has an effective plan to manage matters of environmental significance.</p>
<p>Before the election, the federal government already approved two controversial environmental plans – the <a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">groundwater management plan</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">finch management plan</a>. The only thing left now is for the Queensland Labor government to give its nod of approval. </p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/398/cd00e6e8d7813aaa023cd8e84ad3117a1effa163/site/index.html" frameborder="0" height="600" width="100%"> </iframe>
<hr>
<h2>Not ‘delay tactics’, but a legal duty</h2>
<p>The federal government does not have jurisdiction over state resources unless the project impacts matters of national environmental significance.</p>
<p>And the Adani mine is one such project. The mine would remove the habitat of an endangered species and significantly impact vital underground water resources. </p>
<p>This means the project needed to be <a href="https://www.edoqld.org.au/can_fed_government_stop_adani_minefor%20environmental%20assessment%20under%20the%20%5Bnational%20environment%20act%5D(https://www.environment.gov.au/epbc)">referred to</a> the federal government.</p>
<p>The aim of this referral was to make sure the environmental assessment process would sufficiently prevent or reduce irreparable damage to the environment. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/traditional-owners-still-stand-in-adanis-way-115454">Traditional owners still stand in Adani's way</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Generally, in a bilateral arrangement, the federal government authorises the state to conduct an environmental assessment. And this is the framework that has informed the Adani project from the outset. </p>
<p>This is our rule of law, and one that’s in the public interest. </p>
<p>So any suggestion the Queensland government engaged in “delay tactics” when they were carrying out these critical legal responsibilities is inaccurate and misconceives the fundamental legal responsibilities that underlie this process. </p>
<h2>There are two more approvals left</h2>
<p>There are two outstanding approvals required for the environmental conditions to be satisfied: the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">black-throated finch</a> environmental management plan and the groundwater environmental management plan. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275812/original/file-20190522-187153-zhrbg4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The habitat of the endangered black-throated finch must be protected.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/107368995@N04/33471514488/in/photolist-SZLg8o-FQLgh2-22JZ6ju-YgovAp-2c7sfjy-22JZ6am-2f8X1di-nUQ33T-NdBsS4-nV88oH-2cSugwf-Q3SKR9-2fVD2PV-2bQSgBd-2c3kJ1c-2c3sANU-2aMjQ3W-2auytbk-Ygovr6-QP81HG-QVpBcd-gVdjcf-omBEBe-297SHkb-297SHL1-nuNW3Y-297SCP7-2c3kKca-eYKDhr-4C9V7y-PYPpjh-25j2P6a-okUcQL-297SFcd-2c3sC9u-2cSuh4h-nfn9TN-Aa5dZ6-2fTzJA4-mHGE8a-2dti18k-mHGLav-ooDVKM-yDPXhJ-S82YNn-28ZdMXA-CNNuKD-zQPN51-Ajzmeg-A2ZAG1">Steve Dew</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h3>Black-throated finch</h3>
<p>The Queensland government rejected the black-throated finch management plan submitted by Adani last month. This was because the plan did not constitute a management plan at all.</p>
<p>If the finch’s habitat is destroyed by the coalmine, then it’s necessary to outline how this endangered species will be relocated, and how this relocation will be managed. </p>
<p>But the Adani management plan does not do this. Rather than setting up a conservation area for the finch, the Adani plan <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">proposed establishing</a> a cow paddock, which would destroy the grass seeds vital for the survival of the finch.</p>
<p>Clearly this plan does not comply with the environmental condition attached to its licence. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-adanis-finch-plan-was-rejected-and-what-comes-next-116525">Why Adani's finch plan was rejected, and what comes next</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h3>Groundwater management</h3>
<p>The Queensland Department of Environment and Science is currently reviewing the groundwater management plan and have sought <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/queensland-shoots-down-reports-of-new-adani-groundwater-review-20190513-p51mqu.html">further advice</a> from Geoscience Australia and CSIRO. </p>
<p>Adani must address how the mine will impact the threatened Doongmabulla Springs in the Great Artesian Basin. This involves creating a groundwater model capable of estimating how much groundwater levels will decrease when water is used to extract the coal. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">Unpacking the flaws in Adani's water management plan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This is important because the basin is a water supply for cattle stations, irrigation, livestock and domestic usage. It also provides <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-the-carmichael-coal-mine-need-to-use-so-much-water-75923">vital water supplies</a> to around 200 towns, which are entitled to draw between 100 and 500 million litres of water each year. </p>
<p>Any impact on the underground aquifers that feed into the Great Artesian Basin would not only be devastating for the environment, but also for all the communities that rely on its water resources.</p>
<p>The original groundwater model submitted by Adani <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/cb8a9e41-eba5-47a4-8b72-154d0a5a6956/files/csiro-geoscience-australia-final-advice.pdf">was not</a> “suitable to ensure the outcomes sought by the EPBC Act conditions are met”. </p>
<p>It’s unclear whether Adani’s resubmitted groundwater model still <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/protection/assessments/key-assessments">under-predicted</a> the impact because the further submissions made by Adani have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/09/coalition-approves-adani-groundwater-plan-despite-questions-over-modelling">not been subjected</a> to extensive review at the federal level. </p>
<p>Great care needs to be taken to ensure the expert advice from CSIRO and Geoscience is properly heeded.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275810/original/file-20190522-187179-ejl7u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mine may cause the Doongmabulla Springs to cease flowing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lockthegatealliance/40929859781/in/photolist-25mQekB-25ksCuT">Lock the Gate Alliance/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Adani mine is an outlier in the global coal community</h2>
<p>The approval of the Adani coalmine comes at a time when the global community is rapidly moving away from coal. </p>
<p>Germany, a pioneer of the mass deployment of wind and solar power generation, <a href="http://www.globalenergyblog.com/germany-takes-the-first-steps-towards-the-end-of-coal-fired-power?utm_source=Mondaq&utm_medium=syndication&utm_campaign=View-Original">announced</a> the phaseout of its 84 coalfired plants.</p>
<p>Britain has just had its first week <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/britain-goes-a-week-without-coal-power-saying-this-is-the-new-normal-20190509-p51lgy.html">without coal-fired electricity</a>, and this new energy mix has rapidly become the “new normal”. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-transition-from-coal-4-lessons-for-australia-from-around-the-world-115558">How to transition from coal: 4 lessons for Australia from around the world</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But the international <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/confronting-coal">coal market</a> is variable. India’s consumption is expected to rise by the end of 2023, but their aim is to reduce coal imports. And China’s coal consumption is projected to fall almost 3%, largely due to the country’s ambitious clean energy plans. What’s more, coal is in decline in the United States and across Europe generally. </p>
<p>The global economy is de-carbonising. As global warming accelerates and cleaner energy options gain more traction, coal will inevitably decline even further. </p>
<p>A hasty post-election approval of the outstanding environmental plans for Adani coalmine would not only conflict with our domestic legal framework, but also the broader imperatives of the international community.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Queensland Labor government still must approve two outstanding environmental management plans for the Adani mine to go ahead.Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1169012019-05-15T20:24:29Z2019-05-15T20:24:29ZInteractive: Everything you need to know about Adani – from cost, environmental impact and jobs to its possible future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273770/original/file-20190510-183112-euz2bs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=396%2C187%2C1472%2C915&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">It's a 50km long patch in the middle of Queensland that's causing a lot of trouble, but many people couldn't even point it out on a map.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://statedevelopment.qld.gov.au/assessments-and-approvals/coordinated-projects-map.html/?marker=Carmichael%20Coal%20Mine%20and%20Rail">Queensland Government - Coordinated Projects Map</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Adani Carmichael coal mine has been an election issue across state and federal politics since 2016.</em> </p>
<p><em>Despite bipartisan support, it defined the November 2017 Queensland election, has shaped federal by-elections since and prompted protests in almost every Australian state and territory – <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/gallery/2019/may/06/on-the-road-with-bob-browns-stop-adani-convoy-hobart-to-clermont-in-pictures">including a convoy</a> that has made its way up to the neighbouring town of Clermont all the way from Tasmania.</em></p>
<p><em>So given it’s gone through several revisions thanks to issues with funding and environmental approvals, what does the proposed mine look like now?</em></p>
<p><em>This is a heavily revised version of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/infographic-heres-exactly-what-adanis-carmichael-mine-means-for-queensland-87684">graphic originally created for the 2017 Queensland state election</a>.</em> </p>
<p><em>It will be updated as new information becomes available.</em></p>
<hr>
<iframe src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/398/cd00e6e8d7813aaa023cd8e84ad3117a1effa163/site/index.html" frameborder="0" height="600" width="100%"> </iframe>
<hr>
<p><strong>Updates:</strong> </p>
<p><em>September 16 2019: Updated to include the approvals of the land-lease and licence to operate a railway, as well as the approval for the lease for the airport and workers’ housing. The Queensland government’s extinguishing of the Wangan and Jagalingou people’s native title in late August has also been included.</em> </p>
<p><em>July 2 2019: The graphic has been updated to include the June 13 state government approval of Adani’s groundwater management plan, including the restrictions on underground mining until further investigation of the source of the Doongmabula Springs has been established.</em></p>
<p><em>June 5 2019: The graphic has been updated to include the May 31 state government approval of Adani’s black-throated finch management plan. The new deadlines set by the Queensland government for airport and construction housing leases, as well as the rail licence (both July 31 2019), have also been added.</em></p>
<p><em>Note: a previous version of this graphic noted the two instances of stormwater released at Abbot Point as containing specifically carbon particles. It has been updated to “suspended solids” which may contain silt, sediment, dirt, gravel, organic matter or coal dust/particles.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116901/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Everything you need to know – where it is, the environmental impact, Indigenous land rights issues and actual profitability – of the Adani Carmichael coal mine in one simple interactive.Michael Hopkin, Deputy Chief of Staff, The ConversationMadeleine De Gabriele, Deputy Editor: Energy + EnvironmentWes Mountain, Social Media + Visual Storytelling EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1165252019-05-07T05:56:04Z2019-05-07T05:56:04ZWhy Adani’s finch plan was rejected, and what comes next<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272936/original/file-20190507-103057-qq2v22.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C10%2C1200%2C610&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The black-throated finch is on the verge of extinction.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/129013862@N04/39211480890/in/photolist-22JZ6am-NdBsS4-Q3SKR9-nUQ33T-2cSugwf-nV88oH-2bQSgBd-2c3kJ1c-2c3sANU-2auytbk-2aMjQ3W-QP81HG-Ygovr6-QVpBcd-gVdjcf-297SHkb-omBEBe-297SHL1-297SBYQ-297SCP7-nuNW3Y-2c3kKca-eYKDhr-4C9V7y-PYPpjh-okUcQL-297SFcd-2c3sC9u-2cSuh4h-nfn9TN-Aa5dZ6-mHGLav-2dti18k-ooDVKM-yDPXhJ-28ZdMXA-CNNuKD-zQPN51-A2ZAG1-Ajzmeg-yUVDMo-zKE5Sj-ACdju9-ACdsN3-M994Es-o5phTy-Gk7zjZ-z8CXMX-z8upGG-omBF8K">Brian McCauley/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Adani’s plan to manage an endangered finch was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-03/adani-mine-environment-approval-black-throated-finch/11075824">rejected last week</a> by the Queensland government, stalling progress on the Carmichael mine.</p>
<p>The mine would cover much of the <a href="http://eisdocs.dsdip.qld.gov.au/Carmichael%20Coal%20Mine%20and%20Rail/AEIS/btf-monitoring-survey-022014.pdf">best remaining habitat</a> for the endangered black-throated finch. The Queensland government required Adani to commit to gathering more accurate finch population data, limit the cattle grazing in the finch conservation area and determine food availability throughout the year, before they could approve the plan.</p>
<p>The rejection is one of two outstanding environmental approvals required before Adani can commence work on the mine. The second is the plan to manage <a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">groundwater-dependent ecosystems</a>, which the Queensland government has yet to come to a decision on.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/unpacking-the-flaws-in-adanis-water-management-plan-116161">Unpacking the flaws in Adani's water management plan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The federal government has been reported as “already approving” the finch plan. But legally, the Queensland government must determine whether the plan complies with the conditions of the environmental authority and, under the bilateral framework, the federal government must give due regard to this assessment.</p>
<h2>What’s wrong with Adani’s plan?</h2>
<p>Last Friday Queensland’s Department of Environment and Science decided not to approve Adani’s black-throated finch management plan because it does not fulfil certain basic requirements.</p>
<p>The decision is based on a detailed report from an independent expert panel. </p>
<p>The black-throated finch is on the verge of extinction, one of <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-the-first-time-weve-looked-at-every-threatened-bird-in-australia-side-by-side-107432">238 threatened Australian birds</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272937/original/file-20190507-103075-17wf8g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272937/original/file-20190507-103075-17wf8g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272937/original/file-20190507-103075-17wf8g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272937/original/file-20190507-103075-17wf8g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272937/original/file-20190507-103075-17wf8g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272937/original/file-20190507-103075-17wf8g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272937/original/file-20190507-103075-17wf8g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272937/original/file-20190507-103075-17wf8g4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The black-throated finch is experiencing habitat loss and degradation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/107368995@N04/33471514488/in/photolist-SZLg8o-FQLgh2-22JZ6ju-2c7sfjy-22JZ6am-NdBsS4-Q3SKR9-nUQ33T-2cSugwf-nV88oH-2bQSgBd-2c3kJ1c-2c3sANU-2auytbk-2aMjQ3W-QP81HG-Ygovr6-QVpBcd-gVdjcf-297SHkb-omBEBe-297SHL1-297SBYQ-297SCP7-nuNW3Y-2c3kKca-eYKDhr-4C9V7y-PYPpjh-okUcQL-297SFcd-2c3sC9u-2cSuh4h-nfn9TN-Aa5dZ6-mHGLav-2dti18k-ooDVKM-yDPXhJ-28ZdMXA-CNNuKD-zQPN51-A2ZAG1-Ajzmeg-yUVDMo-zKE5Sj-ACdju9-ACdsN3-M994Es-o5phTy">Steve Dew/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/for-the-first-time-weve-looked-at-every-threatened-bird-in-australia-side-by-side-107432">For the first time we've looked at every threatened bird in Australia side-by-side</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The greatest threat to the black-throated finch is habitat loss: it has disappeared from over 80% of its original range. Strong protection, and careful management, of its remaining habitat is crucial. </p>
<p>The finch, once found across north-eastern Australia, is now largely found on Moray Downs and surrounding properties, north-west of Clermont in central Queensland. A core part of the habitat is within the 28,000 hectare (ha) footprint of the Carmichael mine, where there are far more black finches than elsewhere due to the intact woodlands and a history of minimal livestock grazing. </p>
<p>It is <a href="https://www.acf.org.au/acf_backs_rejection_of_adani_finch_plans">expected</a> the mines will disturb 50,977 ha of black-throated finch habitat, and that 34,156 ha will be completely cleared. </p>
<p>A total of 87 square kilometres of habitat will be destroyed through the creation of open pits, and a further 61 square kilometres may be degraded beyond repair due to the influence of <a href="http://www.birdlife.org.au/documents/NEWS-Black-throated_Finch_Recovery_Team_Position_Statement_Galilee_Basin.pdf">underground mining</a> on groundwater.</p>
<p>After habitat loss, the second greatest threat to the finch is cattle grazing, which destroys the grass seeds they need to survive. Yet Adani’s management plan for the black-throated finch involved grazing cattle on areas that are supposed to be devoted to conservation of the finch.</p>
<p>Instead of establishing a finch conservation reserve, the Adani plan proposed what was in effect a paddock. Providing a species management plan that effectively conserves finch habitat is a core condition of Adani’s mining licence. </p>
<h2>State vs federal priorities</h2>
<p>The Queensland government’s rejection of the plan brings into stark focus some of the problems with the existing environmental assessment framework. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272939/original/file-20190507-103068-1488pck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272939/original/file-20190507-103068-1488pck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/272939/original/file-20190507-103068-1488pck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272939/original/file-20190507-103068-1488pck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272939/original/file-20190507-103068-1488pck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272939/original/file-20190507-103068-1488pck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272939/original/file-20190507-103068-1488pck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/272939/original/file-20190507-103068-1488pck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Adani plan includes cattle grazing, despite the threat to finch habitats.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/brahman-cattle-paddock-queensland-australia-140347846?src=gzZfkpUM_rS4js2QYonNOw-1-5">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The environmental authority for the mining licence was approved by the Federal government. The environmental management plan for the finch did not, however, address core impact concerns. And yet this is the very reason that the plan was required from the outset. The inadequacies of the plan only became apparent because of the oversight of the Queensland government. </p>
<p>The federal government has not been proactive despite’s its mandate under our National environment act - the Environmental Protection Biodiversity Conservation act. In fact, a recent analysis found the federal government has approved <a href="https://theconversation.com/death-by-775-cuts-how-conservation-law-is-failing-the-black-throated-finch-110704">hundreds of projects</a> to clear black-throated finch habitat over the last 18 years. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/death-by-775-cuts-how-conservation-law-is-failing-the-black-throated-finch-110704">Death by 775 cuts: how conservation law is failing the black-throated finch</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There are clearly differences in priorities regarding the environment between a federal Liberal and a state Labor government. However, environmental assessment can only be effective if is not undermined by political agendas, and is grounded in scientific rigour and scrutiny. </p>
<h2>A one-stop shop</h2>
<p>At the federal level, any project likely to have a “<a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/epbc/publications/significant-impact-guidelines-11-matters-national-environmental-significance">significant impact</a>” on a matter protected by the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act must be referred to the federal environment minister. </p>
<p>If the minister decides the project impacts a matter of national environmental significance, he or she will then determine how to assess that project at the national level. Legislated options include: an environmental impact statement, a public environment report and public inquiry. </p>
<p>The federal government has entered into bilateral agreements with all state and territory governments. As a result, rather than the state and federal governments conducting separate assessment, the aim is to promote a single, focused environmental evaluation. </p>
<p>The Queensland government has entered into a bilateral assessment agreement with the Commonwealth government for Adani’s coal project, which effectively allows it to make an environmental assessment that the Commonwealth Minister will then take account of when deciding whether to grant approval. </p>
<p>This means that both the Queensland and the federal government are involved in the approval and assessment process environmental authorities and conditions, one of those being the management plan for the black-throated finch. In order to optimise outcomes they need to work together collaboratively. </p>
<h2>Where to next?</h2>
<p>The rejection means that Adani will now need to submit a new or revised plan that addresses the Queensland government’s concerns. In particular, Adani will need to limit cattle grazing in the conservation area, and gather more information regarding the availability of seed throughout the year. </p>
<p>This may take time but is critical, because in its current form, the plan does not meet the legal requirements for the Environmental Authority, which means that it cannot be approved at the state level. </p>
<p>Without state approval the Adani coal mine cannot proceed. The Queensland government has rigorously assessed Adani’s management plan by commissioning a report by an independent expert panel and then acting on the advice of this report.</p>
<p>This robust approach is crucial to the whole framework of environmental assessment. Genuine commitment to protecting endangered species and managing vital groundwater resources is vital if we want to reverse Australia’s dire trajectory of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-20/australia-fourth-on-animal-extinction-list/10002380">environmental decline</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116525/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>April Reside is a scientific advisor for the Black-throated Finch Recovery Team and is on Birdlife Australia's Research and Conservation Committee and Threatened Species Committee. In the past, April has received funding from the Regional NRM planning for climate change program, the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, and the NESP Threatened Species Recovery Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A small finch has stalled the multi-million-dollar Carmichael mine.Samantha Hepburn, Director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resources Law, Deakin Law School, Deakin UniversityApril Reside, Researcher, Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1161612019-04-30T20:14:04Z2019-04-30T20:14:04ZUnpacking the flaws in Adani’s water management plan<p>Adani’s <a href="https://www.adaniaustralia.com/-/media/Project/Australia/Our-Projects--Businesses/mine-environment-reporting/GDEMP-Final-V11b-19March2019.pdf?la=en&hash=C4988A8485428FD234C4A09023D08B34">groundwater dependent ecosystem management plan</a> for its proposed Carmichael coal mine was recently approved by federal Environment Minister Melissa Price, despite <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/cb8a9e41-eba5-47a4-8b72-154d0a5a6956/files/csiro-geoscience-australia-final-advice.pdf">a review</a> from CSIRO and Geoscience Australia that points out major problems with the modelling.</p>
<p>According to the minister, approval was granted only after the company made commitments to fully address these issues (a claim later <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/carmichael-mine-approved-despite-adani-refusing-csiro-advice/11027852">called into question</a>).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-government-approves-next-step-towards-adani-coal-mine-115133">Morrison government approves next step towards Adani coal mine</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, when we look closely at the flaws in Adani’s plan it’s not clear they can credibly be remedied. There’s a very real chance the mine could cause irreversible harm to the nationally significant Doongmabulla Springs.</p>
<h2>What a groundwater model is supposed to do</h2>
<p>The primary purpose of the model – as is the case for most groundwater models used in mining impact studies – is to determine the likely effect of mining on groundwater levels and flows of water to and from key areas. </p>
<p>One important goal of the model is to estimate the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drawdown_(hydrology)">drawdown</a> (decrease in groundwater levels) in aquifers around the mine as it pumps water and digs through aquifers to reach the coal. </p>
<p>Drawdown may cause groundwater levels to decline below thresholds <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/water/publications/what-are-the-ecological-impacts-of-groundwater-drawdown">critical to the function of whole ecosystems</a>, such as (in this case) the <a href="https://sacredland.org/doongmabulla-springs-australia/">Doongmabulla Springs</a>. </p>
<p>Groundwater models can also be used to assess changes in flows of water to and from springs and streams, such as the Carmichael River, which crosses the mine site.</p>
<h2>What flaws in Adani’s modelling were identified?</h2>
<p>CSIRO and Geoscience Australia’s review pointed out three major flaws:</p>
<h3>1. Over-prediction of flow from the Carmichael River to groundwater</h3>
<p>Groundwater and surface water are intimately connected in the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/water-science-school/science/water-cycle?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects">water cycle</a>. For example, in some areas surface water can “recharge” aquifers, while in others aquifers provide water that keeps rivers flowing. </p>
<p>According to the review, Adani has overestimated how much water would flow from the Carmichael River into the aquifers below. This means there is in reality less water available to replenish the groundwater system below the river, which in turn means that the mine will likely cause greater groundwater drawdown than predicted.</p>
<h3>2. The hydraulic parameters chosen for key geological units</h3>
<p>A fundamental part of any groundwater model is the hydraulic properties selected for each geological layer through which groundwater moves. The most important is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/hydraulic-conductivity">hydraulic conductivity</a>: a measure of how much water can be transmitted through an aquifer over time. The review found that Adani’s model uses hydraulic conductivity values significantly different from the values estimated by previous testing of the geological layers at the mine site.</p>
<p>For example, Adani’s model assigned one key layer (the <a href="https://asud.ga.gov.au/search-stratigraphic-units/results/16052">Rewan Formation</a>) much lower hydraulic conductivity values than actually indicated when consultants tested this layer.</p>
<p>This is critically important, as it is the main layer separating the coals that will be mined from shallower aquifers. CSIRO and GA’s conclusion was that this also caused the model to predict less drawdown at the Doongmabulla Springs than is likely in reality.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/traditional-owners-still-stand-in-adanis-way-115454">Traditional owners still stand in Adani's way</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h3>3. Bore heights used to calibrate the model were incorrect</h3>
<p>According to the Australian Groundwater Modelling Guidelines, groundwater models should be <a href="http://www.ees.nmt.edu/outside/courses/hyd547/supplemental/MODFLOW_Tutorial/MODFLOW-ModelCalibration.pdf">calibrated</a>. This involves comparing predictions made by the model with already measured water levels and other field data. </p>
<p>Calibration fine-tunes models, ensuring they are capable of replicating known behaviour, before predicting future behaviour. Correcting errors identified in the heights of some bores used in the model resulted in a lower overall match between modelled and observed water levels from the site.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271684/original/file-20190430-194620-1fm3zu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271684/original/file-20190430-194620-1fm3zu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271684/original/file-20190430-194620-1fm3zu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271684/original/file-20190430-194620-1fm3zu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271684/original/file-20190430-194620-1fm3zu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271684/original/file-20190430-194620-1fm3zu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271684/original/file-20190430-194620-1fm3zu3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Carmichael River will be affected by Adani’s mine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lockthegatealliance/27058344078/in/photolist-fWRP8h-He45ZL-22zxaQu">Lock The Gate Alliance/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Significance of these issues</h2>
<p>These flaws are of major significance. If the model is corrected to address them, the review points out that the drawdown at the Doongmabulla Springs will in all likelihood be higher than <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/cb8a9e41-eba5-47a4-8b72-154d0a5a6956/files/factsheet-carmichael.pdf">required under Adani’s federal approval conditions</a>.</p>
<p>We have published <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169417301774">peer-reviewed science</a> pointing out additional problems, which the review also noted. </p>
<p>A key uncertainty yet to be resolved is determining the predominant aquifers contributing water flow to the Doongmabulla Springs. It’s possible there exists a deeper source aquifer (rather than, or in addition to, the aquifer assumed by Adani). This has further implications for the level of impact the mine will have on the springs, and the effectiveness of the proposed monitoring program.</p>
<p>Adani was not required to address these problems prior to federal approval of its groundwater plans and is not required to do so until two years after mining activity begins (although, the Queensland government may yet require this). </p>
<p>This raises questions about the environmental approvals process, which currently allows major scientific issues to remain unresolved. Prior to approval, there are opportunities for scrutiny of a project’s impacts, which can result in major project modifications, strict operating conditions or even (in rare cases) rejection. Following approval, opportunities for independent scientific and public input and further modifications are far more limited.</p>
<h2>‘Adaptive management’ will not protect the Doongmabulla Springs</h2>
<p>In the decision reached by the Queensland Land Court following an <a href="http://envlaw.com.au/carmichael-coal-mine-case/">objection to the mine in 2014-15</a>, significant uncertainty about its future impacts was recognised. However, it was concluded “adaptive management” would nonetheless safeguard the Doongmabulla Springs. This argument was also the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/pages/cb8a9e41-eba5-47a4-8b72-154d0a5a6956/files/carmichael-statement-reasons.pdf">basis for federal approval</a> under the then environment minister, Greg Hunt. </p>
<p>But what is “adaptive management” and can it be meaningfully used here? We would argue no.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271683/original/file-20190430-194623-rydl4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271683/original/file-20190430-194623-rydl4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271683/original/file-20190430-194623-rydl4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271683/original/file-20190430-194623-rydl4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271683/original/file-20190430-194623-rydl4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271683/original/file-20190430-194623-rydl4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271683/original/file-20190430-194623-rydl4w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The mine may cause the Doongmabulla Springs to cease flowing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/lockthegatealliance/26041469627/in/photolist-FFckDD">Lock The Gate Alliance/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/research/adaptive-management.htm">Adaptive management</a> is essentially when a company commits to flexibly changing its approach as it learns more about the environmental impact of its activities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-the-carmichael-coal-mine-need-to-use-so-much-water-75923">Why does the Carmichael coal mine need to use so much water?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>However, there is a significant risk that the mine may cause the Doongmabulla Springs to irreversibly cease flowing. Adaptive management, as the US Department of the Interior <a href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70194537">points out</a>, cannot be used if decisions cannot be meaningfully revisited and modified. </p>
<p>Indeed, Adani has not defined substantive corrective measures for reversing future spring-flow impacts from mining – an essential element of adaptive management. It’s critical Adani puts forward its plan for dealing with these very real risks. Without a credible plan, regulators cannot hope to make an informed decision about the risk the mine poses to the Doongmabulla Springs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116161/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Werner has previously received funding from the Environmental Defenders Office (Qld) to serve as an expert witness in the Queensland Land Court case: "Adani Mining Pty Ltd v Land Services of Coast and Country Inc & Ors (2015) QLC 48".</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Currell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Adani has promised to fix its groundwater plan – but that might not be possible.Matthew Currell, Associate Professor in Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering, RMIT UniversityAdrian Werner, Professor of Hydrogeology, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1158452019-04-25T20:14:01Z2019-04-25T20:14:01ZLies, obfuscation and fake news make for a dispiriting – and dangerous – election campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/270857/original/file-20190425-121249-10fvr9y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=479%2C0%2C3197%2C2000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The integrity of Australia's election process is under unprecedented pressure during this election.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The integrity of Australia’s electoral processes is under unprecedented challenge in this federal election.</p>
<p>The campaign has already been marred by fake news, political exploitation of social media falsehoods and amplification by mainstream media of crude slurs made on Facebook under the cover of anonymity.</p>
<p>We have seen our first recorded instance of Facebook running Australian fake news. </p>
<p>It was <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/it-is-a-lie-bill-shorten-targets-liberals-for-death-tax-fake-news-on-facebook-20190420-p51fu6.html">a false post</a> about the Labor Party’s tax policies, wrongly saying Labor intended to introduce a 40% inheritance tax.</p>
<p>It was interesting to trace how this fakery was created.</p>
<p>The false post had a link to <a href="https://joshfrydenberg.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Treasurer-Media-Release-Death-taxes-you-dont-say-Bill.pdf">a press release</a> issued in January by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.</p>
<p>It said Labor’s assistant treasury spokesman, Andrew Leigh, had written an article 13 years ago – when he was an academic – that favoured introducing an inheritance tax. Thirteen years ago – before he was even in politics.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fake-news-is-already-spreading-online-in-the-election-campaign-its-up-to-us-to-stop-it-115455">'Fake news' is already spreading online in the election campaign – it's up to us to stop it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Then to add to the fakery, and seemingly by coincidence, the Liberal Party had a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/labor-demands-facebook-remove-fake-news-posts-about-false-death-tax-plans-20190419-p51fpk.html">black van driving around city streets</a> with large signs saying “Labor will tax you to death”.</p>
<p>The Liberals have denied being involved in the duplicity and there is no evidence to suggest they were. But the false post had just enough of an impressionistic link to the Liberal attack to make its message plausible: a tincture of “truthiness”.</p>
<p>Then the Coalition made mischief with it.</p>
<p>George Christensen, Nationals MP for the Queensland seat of Dawson, put up a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=George%20Christensen%20labor%20union%20bosses&epa=SEARCH_BOX">Facebook post</a> three days after the original, saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Labor does the bidding of their union bosses [and] the union bosses have demanded Bill Shorten introduce a death tax.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The original post also generated memes from far-right political groups, piling new lies on top of the old.</p>
<p>Labor has demanded Facebook take down the original, but there is no sign it has done so.</p>
<p>The delay is not only unconscionable, but has given the likes of Christensen and others the opportunity to cloak the original falsehood in political commentary, creating the basis for a specious circular argument. It goes like this:</p>
<p>Facebook posts a lie. It generates political reaction. The political reaction absorbs the lie into political speech. Political speech should not be censored. Therefore taking down the original lie would be censorship.</p>
<p>This is yet one more way in which Facebook’s irresponsibility taints the democratic process.</p>
<p>So much for the fine promises made by Facebook’s founder, Mark Zuckerberg, last year on what became known as his “<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/16/mark-zuckerbergs-apology-tour">apology tour</a>” of Washington and Brussels.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.harpersbazaar.com.au/mark-zuckerberg-says-he-will-end-fake-news-on-Facebook-following-the-US-election-result">He told officials</a> he would stop the spread of fake news and voter manipulation on Facebook. </p>
<p>He <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2018/04/10/transcript-of-mark-zuckerbergs-senate-hearing/">told a US Senate committee</a> that every advertiser who wanted to run political ads would need to be authorised, and that would mean confirming their identity and location.</p>
<p>Yet the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-26/facebook-electoral-commission-emails-reveal-political-ad-concern/10834736">ABC is reporting</a> that just months after Zuckerberg’s “apology tour”, Facebook was playing ducks and drakes with the Australian Electoral Commission over precisely this question of authorisation.</p>
<p>The ABC reports that it has obtained documents under freedom-of-information that show a prolonged battle last year between the commission and Facebook over unauthorised political ads from a mysterious outfit called Hands Off Our Democracy, which was paying for sponsored posts attacking left-wing groups and political parties.</p>
<p>The posts eventually disappeared, but only after Facebook tried to give the commission the brush-off.</p>
<p>The ABC is also reporting that almost a year after Zuckerberg made his promises to clean up Facebook’s act, and with Australia’s federal election only three weeks away, Facebook still has not brought its new authorisation rules to Australia. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the Electoral Commission is on the front foot about fake news.</p>
<p>A Google search for “Facebook carries fake news about Labor’s tax policy” brings up as its top item an ad from the commission warning people not to be misled by disinformation.</p>
<p>The commission has set up a special <a href="https://www.itnews.com.au/Electoral-commission-spins-up-cyber-op-centre">electoral integrity taskforce</a>, which includes the Australian Signals Directorate and ASIO, to try to head off potential threats to the democratic process.</p>
<p>A further threat to the integrity of Australia’s electoral process is the interplay between Facebook and elements of the mainstream media.</p>
<p>A few days ago, <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/adani-convoy-reliant-on-coal-miners">the convoy protesting</a> against the Adani coal mine arrived in Queensland, led by environmental activist and former Greens leader Bob Brown.</p>
<p>Simultaneously, a private Facebook group called Stop Adani Convoy posted a number of repugnant messages, including a reference to gas chambers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-governments-have-a-long-history-of-trying-to-manipulate-the-abc-and-its-unlikely-to-stop-now-110712">Australian governments have a long history of trying to manipulate the ABC – and it's unlikely to stop now</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The post was anonymous, but it was picked up and amplified by Brisbane’s Courier-Mail newspaper under the heading: “Bob Brown’s mob of revolting protesters liken coal mines to gas chambers”. </p>
<p>Well down in the story, the newspaper said it was not suggesting Brown had anything to do with this statement, an inclusion that was all about avoiding a writ for libel.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/22/bob-brown-accuses-news-corp-of-disgraceful-coverage-of-stop-adani-convoy">Brown said</a>: “Some of the headlines in the Murdoch media are simply disgraceful. They’re a disgrace to journalism”.</p>
<p>This interaction of social media and elements of the mainstream media, in which extremist language and feverish controversy are exploited as a means of dividing the community and of promoting a reactionary political worldview, was a potent feature of the 2016 US presidential campaign and the Brexit referendum the same year.</p>
<p>Where the issue is highly controversial and emotive – as with climate change, immigration or Brexit – the extremism expressed on social media makes headlines in the mainstream media, raising the political temperature and fuelling further partisanship.</p>
<p>There is a lot of research that shows how these effects are damaging democracies around the world. The findings are laid out in books such as those by Cass Sunstein (<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/titles/10935.html">#republic</a>), Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt (<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/562246/how-democracies-die-by-steven-levitsky-and-daniel-ziblatt/9781524762940/">How Democracies Die</a>) and A.C. Grayling (<a href="https://oneworld-publications.com/democracy-and-its-crisis.html">Democracy and Its Crisis</a>).</p>
<p>An important long-term issue in the 2019 federal election is how robust Australia’s democratic institutional arrangements turn out to be in the face of these pressures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115845/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Denis Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With a fake news scandal already marking this election campaign, questions remain about how well our democracy can cope with it.Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.