tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/barents-sea-14841/articlesBarents Sea – The Conversation2023-02-06T16:04:27Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1991892023-02-06T16:04:27Z2023-02-06T16:04:27ZAtmospheric rivers are hitting the Arctic more often, and increasingly melting its sea ice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508280/original/file-20230206-17-33r4t1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2991%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rain and warm air make it harder for sea ice to grow.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ice-floes-and-fog-surround-the-u-s-coast-guard-cutter-healy-news-photo/842398808">Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2926/Atmospheric-Rivers-What-are-they-and-how-does-NOAA-study-them">Atmospheric rivers</a>, those long, powerful streams of moisture in the sky, are becoming more frequent in the Arctic, and they’re helping to drive <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/">dramatic shrinking</a> of the Arctic’s sea ice cover.</p>
<p>While less ice might have some benefits – it would <a href="https://www.arctictoday.com/winter-transits-along-the-northern-sea-route-open-up-a-new-frontier-in-arctic-shipping/">allow more shipping</a> in winter and access to minerals – sea ice loss also <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sea-ice-climate.html">contributes to global warming</a> and to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc215">extreme storms</a> that cause economic damage well beyond the Arctic.</p>
<p>I’m an <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=PDttwoMAAAAJ&hl=en">atmospheric scientist</a>. In a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01599-3">new study</a> of the Barents-Kara Seas and the neighboring central Arctic, published Feb. 6, 2023, in Nature Climate Change, my colleagues and I found that these storms reached this region more often and were responsible for over a third of the region’s early winter sea ice decline since 1979. </p>
<h2>More frequent atmospheric rivers</h2>
<p>By early winter, the temperature in most of the Arctic is well below freezing and the days are mostly dark. Sea ice should be growing and <a href="https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/">spreading over a wider area</a>. Yet the total area with Arctic sea ice has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052676">fallen dramatically</a> in recent decades.</p>
<p>Part of the reason is that atmospheric rivers have been penetrating into the region <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01599-3">more frequently</a> in recent decades.</p>
<p><iframe id="nmd9I" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nmd9I/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2926/Atmospheric-Rivers-What-are-they-and-how-does-NOAA-study-them">Atmospheric rivers</a> get their name because they are essentially long rivers of water vapor in the sky. They <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0262.1">carry heat and water</a> from the subtropical oceans into the midlatitudes and beyond. <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-california-is-being-deluged-by-atmospheric-rivers/">California</a> and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-29/auckland-grapples-with-flood-damage-braces-for-more-heavy-rain?sref=Hjm5biAW">New Zealand</a> both saw extreme rainfall from multiple atmospheric rivers in January 2023. These storms also drive the bulk of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028130">moisture reaching the Arctic</a>.</p>
<p>Warm air can hold <a href="https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/ocean-observation/understanding-climate/air-and-water">more water vapor</a>. So as the planet <a href="https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-card">and the Arctic</a> warm, atmospheric rivers and other storms carrying lots of moisture can become more common – including in colder regions like the Arctic.</p>
<p>When atmospheric rivers cross over <a href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4750">newly formed sea ice</a>, their heat and rainfall can melt the thin, fragile ice cover away. Ice will start to regrow fairly quickly, but episodic atmospheric river penetrations can easily melt it again. The increasing frequency of these storms means it takes longer for stable ice cover to become established.</p>
<p>As a result, sea ice doesn’t spread to the extent that the cold winter temperature normally would allow it to, leaving more ocean water <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sea-ice-climate.html">open longer</a> to release heat energy.</p>
<h2>How atmospheric rivers melt sea ice</h2>
<p>Atmospheric rivers affect sea ice melting in two primary ways. </p>
<p>More precipitation is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01599-3">falling as rain</a>. But a larger influence on ice loss involves <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/">water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. As water vapor turns into rainfall, the process releases a lot of heat, which warms the atmosphere. Water vapor also has a greenhouse effect that prevents heat from escaping into space. Together with the effect of clouds, they make the atmosphere much warmer than the sea ice.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A world map showing long storms going generally north-south in many parts of the world." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508050/original/file-20230203-14-mzpn5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508050/original/file-20230203-14-mzpn5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508050/original/file-20230203-14-mzpn5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508050/original/file-20230203-14-mzpn5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508050/original/file-20230203-14-mzpn5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508050/original/file-20230203-14-mzpn5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508050/original/file-20230203-14-mzpn5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Atmospheric rivers around the world in February 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/global-visualization-atmospheric-rivers-february-2017">NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Scientists have known for years that heat from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0042.1">strong moisture transports</a> could melt sea ice, but no one knew to what extent. That’s because it’s nearly impossible to install instruments on wild ice to conduct long-term energy exchange observation.</p>
<p>We looked at it in a different way. We were able to establish a statistical linkage between the amount of ice lost and the average count of atmospheric rivers that arrived. In the Barents-Kara Seas and central Arctic, the Arctic quadrant with the most atmospheric river activity, we found that about 34% of the ice decline from 1979 to 2021 can be attributed to the increased frequency of atmospheric rivers.</p>
<p>Other studies have described increases in atmospheric rivers affecting ice loss on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-019-0460-1">Antarctica</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028714">Greenland</a> and across the Arctic during the near-record low-ice <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2017GL076717">winter of 2016-2017</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508167/original/file-20230204-15089-j65gk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of the Arctic including sea routes" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508167/original/file-20230204-15089-j65gk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508167/original/file-20230204-15089-j65gk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508167/original/file-20230204-15089-j65gk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508167/original/file-20230204-15089-j65gk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=569&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508167/original/file-20230204-15089-j65gk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508167/original/file-20230204-15089-j65gk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508167/original/file-20230204-15089-j65gk0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=716&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The area studied involves the Arctic Ocean quadrant with the Kara and Barents Seas – the shallower regions north of Norway and Russia – and the neighboring central Arctic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_the_Arctic_region_showing_the_Northeast_Passage,_the_Northern_Sea_Route_and_Northwest_Passage,_and_bathymetry.png">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Anthropogenic warming – temperature rise caused by human activities such as burning fossil fuels – is <a href="https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-card">a key reason</a> for the increase in atmospheric rivers. We also noticed some influence from natural variability in the tropical Pacific, but studies have found that anthropogenic forcing is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD036044">likely to overwhelm</a> the influence of natural variability by the middle of the 21st century.</p>
<p>Our earlier research has suggested that after the middle of this century, when temperatures are warmer, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1005.1">just about every part</a> of the polar regions should see a substantial increase in atmospheric rivers.</p>
<h2>What sea ice decline means for humans</h2>
<p>Like just about everything, sea ice loss has both bad and good effects.</p>
<p>More open water may enable more direct shipping, so ships could sail from Northern Europe to North America and East Asia through the Arctic, which would be much cheaper. It can also <a href="https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card">increase access to natural resources</a>, <a href="https://www.oceaneconomics.org/arctic/NaturalResources/">including</a> oil, natural gas and minerals crucial for clean energy production.</p>
<p>Of course, atmospheric rivers are also accompanied by <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/in-atmospheric-river-storms-wind-is-a-risk-too">strong wind</a>, which can mean more dangerous wind storms for shipping and erosion for coastal areas. For some wildlife, the effects would be a disaster. Polar bears, for example, rely on sea ice to hunt seals. Loss of sea ice also contributes to climate change. <a href="https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/sea-ice/quick-facts-about-sea-ice">Sea ice reflects</a> incoming energy back into space. Without it, the dark oceans absorb more than 90% of that energy, which causes the oceans to heat up, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/ocean-heat-is-at-record-levels-with-major-consequences-174760">wide implications</a>.</p>
<p>According to the latest global assessment published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Arctic could be <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Polar_regions.pdf">almost entirely ice-free</a> in summer by the middle of this century. That means thin, fragile ice across almost the entire region in early winter that would be susceptible to increasing storms.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199189/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pengfei Zhang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Atmospheric rivers can melt fragile new sea ice. When these storms arrive in waves, the sea ice doesn’t have a chance to recover.Pengfei Zhang, Assistant Research Professor of Atmospheric Science, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1006282018-08-30T10:05:19Z2018-08-30T10:05:19ZExtreme weather in Europe linked to less sea ice and warming in the Barents Sea<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233304/original/file-20180823-149481-edw6o8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ice-barents-sea-arctic-ocean-1049664986?src=m2dlM9kfoPiV9xMdP1Onww-1-86">Vladimir Lugai/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The cold, remote Arctic Ocean and its surrounding marginal seas have experienced climate change at a rate not seen at lower latitudes. Warming air, land and sea temperatures, and large declines in seasonal Arctic sea ice cover are all symptoms of the changing Arctic climate. Although these changes are occurring in relatively remote locations, there is <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-melting-arctic-and-weird-weather-the-plot-thickens-37314">growing evidence to link</a> Arctic sea ice retreat to <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-warming-in-the-arctic-behind-this-years-crazy-winter-weather-89740">increasingly erratic weather patterns</a> over <a href="https://theconversation.com/beast-from-the-east-and-freakishly-warm-arctic-temperatures-are-no-coincidence-92774">the northern hemisphere</a>.</p>
<p>As sea ice declines, areas of open water increase, allowing the ocean to lose more heat to the atmosphere. Heat lost from the ocean to the atmosphere reduces the atmospheric pressure which provides more energy to storms and increases their cloud content through evaporation. </p>
<p>Water flowing north from the Atlantic Ocean provides a major source of heat to the Arctic Ocean and surrounding continental shelf seas. While the Atlantic Water (the particular water mass in the Arctic ocean) carries enough heat to melt all the floating Arctic sea ice in less than five years, it is currently insulated from the surface by a lighter, fresher layer of water over most of the central Arctic Ocean. </p>
<p>However, this paradigm appears to be changing. North of Svalbard, Atlantic Water heat has been mixed up towards the surface, resulting in increased surface heat lost to the atmosphere over the ever greater area of open ocean. This change has recently been <a href="https://theconversation.com/heat-from-the-atlantic-ocean-is-melting-arctic-sea-ice-further-eastwards-than-ever-before-76108">shown to enhance the rate</a> of sea ice loss eastwards. </p>
<h2>Barents Sea changes</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233302/original/file-20180823-149490-17wt79g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233302/original/file-20180823-149490-17wt79g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233302/original/file-20180823-149490-17wt79g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233302/original/file-20180823-149490-17wt79g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233302/original/file-20180823-149490-17wt79g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233302/original/file-20180823-149490-17wt79g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233302/original/file-20180823-149490-17wt79g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233302/original/file-20180823-149490-17wt79g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=689&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Location of the Barents Sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Barents_Sea_map.png">Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A key Arctic region for Atlantic Water heat exchange with the atmosphere is the Barents Sea. Atlantic Water flowing east through the Barents Sea Opening – between Bear Island, and northern Norway – remains exposed to the atmosphere as it circulates through the central Barents Sea. It gradually cools and becomes fresher (due to sea ice melting) as it moves eastwards to the Kara Sea. </p>
<p>In the Barents Sea, sea ice forms every autumn and melts in late spring/summer. In the northern part of the sea, a north-south change from cold to warm sea surface temperatures signals the presence of the Polar Front, which separates cold Arctic water from the warm Atlantic water. The meeting of the two water masses, its location and the temperature difference across it reflects changes in Barents Sea circulation.</p>
<p>During years with low seasonal sea ice concentrations (when there’s more heat loss from more exposed open water), the north-south differences in atmospheric temperatures across the Barents Sea are reduced. These conditions have been linked to <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00449.1">wintertime cyclones</a> travelling further south into western Europe, instead of their tendency to move eastwards towards Siberia, as well as more frequent <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2009JD013568">cold winter extremes at middle latitudes</a>.</p>
<h2>Ice and weather</h2>
<p><a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JPO-D-18-0003.1">For our recent study</a>, we looked at satellite measurements of sea ice and sea surface temperature, to determine how ocean and ice conditions have evolved between 1985 and the end of 2016. We found that prior to 2005, sea ice extended south of the Polar Front every winter, but that since 2005 this has not been the case. </p>
<p>At the same time, the sea surface temperature difference across the Polar Front has increased, with southern temperatures increasing at a faster rate than those to the north. The average between 1985 and 2004 was -1.2°C in the north and 1.5°C in the south, while between 2005 and 2016 it was -0.6°C in the north and 2.6°C in the south. Clearly, from 2005 the Barents Sea has become too warm for sea ice to exist south of the Polar Front. The question then is why is the Barents Sea getting warmer?</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233244/original/file-20180823-149490-irxkcl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233244/original/file-20180823-149490-irxkcl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/233244/original/file-20180823-149490-irxkcl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233244/original/file-20180823-149490-irxkcl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233244/original/file-20180823-149490-irxkcl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233244/original/file-20180823-149490-irxkcl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233244/original/file-20180823-149490-irxkcl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/233244/original/file-20180823-149490-irxkcl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Winter-averaged sea surface temperature and sea ice extent as observed in the Barents Sea by satellites from 2005 and 2016.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00266.1">Long-term oceanographic measurements</a> of water temperature and salinity near the Barents Sea Opening have shown that inflowing Atlantic Water temperatures have increased over the last 30 years, with what appears to be a <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JPO-D-18-0003.1">small but persistent rise around 2005</a> – likely to be due to upstream changes in the North Atlantic sources (though it must be noted that our study did not explore this question). An impact of the warmer water entering the Barents Sea is a warmer atmosphere, which in turn insulates the warmer surface water allowing the Atlantic Water heat to penetrate further to the north, preventing winter sea ice formation and import (that is sea ice that has formed farther north that has drifted southwards) to the region south of the Polar Front. </p>
<p>We believe that this represents a long-term shift in the climate of the Barents Sea, a region already identified as influential on lower-latitude European weather. Furthermore, we believe that the 2005 regime shift we observed over the Barents Sea may have contributed to the increasingly frequent extreme weather events experienced over Europe in the past decade or so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100628/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yueng-Djern Lenn currently receives and has had previous research grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council, UK. She has also previously been supported by the National Science Foundation, USA. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Barton receives funding from the UK-France PhD programme managed by The Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl), UK and the Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA), France. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camille Lique works for Ifremer (Institut Francais de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer). She has received funding from the UK Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl), UK and the Direction Générale de l’Armement (DGA), as well as from the French INSU-LEFE programme, the European CMEMS programme and the French 'Agence Nationale de la Recherche'. </span></em></p>Since 2005, the Barents Sea has become too warm for sea ice to exist south of the Polar Front.Yueng-Djern Lenn, Senior Lecturer in Physical Oceanography, Bangor UniversityBenjamin Barton, PhD Researcher, Bangor UniversityCamille Lique, Research scientist in physical oceanography, IfremerLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/930922018-03-19T12:59:51Z2018-03-19T12:59:51ZSnow crab saga: a story that demonstrates the complexities of climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210125/original/file-20180313-30994-3ckmlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/snow-crab-opilio-on-seabed-611947913?src=9n7kLrGJxMkX9KWIiQfotw-1-25">Kondratuk Aleksei/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s much more to <a href="http://www.fao.org/fishery/species/2644/en">snow crab</a> than their tasty legs and claws. Especially so in the last few years as these large, cold water Arctic crabs have started <a href="http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/CM%20Doccuments/CM-2014/Theme%20Session%20F%20contributions/F0414.pdf">showing up in the Barents Sea</a>, where they’ve never been before. The snow crab’s story is a harbinger of climate change complexities on the horizon, and much more.</p>
<p>Until recently, they could only be found in Alaskan, Pacific Russian and Atlantic Canadian waters. But globalisation and growing human access to Arctic waters due to climate change have expanded the crab’s reach: increased marine traffic has seen the species successfully hitch a ride to the Barents from elsewhere in the Arctic. The new territory has proved quite amenable, and they are thriving. Crabs still at home in their native habitats, however, have been weathering climate change <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/snow-crab-stock-assessment-1.4001411">less successfully</a> due to climate changes and warming waters. </p>
<p>Climate change is also making it easier to fish the crabs, with <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074304/pdf">more of the Barents ice-free for longer</a>. And that means humans are benefiting too, because humans adore eating this particular variety of crab. Alaskan crab fishing is so dangerous, risky, but potentially profitable that it has had its own TV series since 2005: <a href="https://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/deadliest-catch/">The Deadliest Catch</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210812/original/file-20180316-104639-s365z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210812/original/file-20180316-104639-s365z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210812/original/file-20180316-104639-s365z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210812/original/file-20180316-104639-s365z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210812/original/file-20180316-104639-s365z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210812/original/file-20180316-104639-s365z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210812/original/file-20180316-104639-s365z8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Served up for supper.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/snow-crab-legs-178126874?src=9n7kLrGJxMkX9KWIiQfotw-1-3">alisafarov/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Economics and ecosystems</h2>
<p>Given humanity’s voracious appetite for this particular variety of crab, when they started appearing in Russian waters in the Barents Sea in the late 1990s, the Russians and Norwegians agreed to study them to see whether they could make money for them too. They also wanted to know what effects they were having as newcomers to the area’s seabed. The countries now do <a href="http://www.imr.no/tokt/okosystemtokt_i_barentshavet/survey_reports/nb-no">joint ecosystem surveys</a> each autumn, and have a pretty good idea now that populations are growing very fast – fast enough that <a href="http://barentsobserver.com/en/opinion/2014/03/snow-crab-valuable-new-fishery-resource-barents-sea-20-03">some predict</a> that their value in the fishing industry in Norway could overtake cod in terms of value within a decade or two.</p>
<p>The crabs eat pretty much everything, but the net effect on the marine ecosystem’s productivity is still unclear. This is for two reasons. First, baseline science on Arctic seabed conditions still has a lot of unknowns. We can’t be sure what the changes are, because <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00300-005-0013-5">we don’t really know</a> what has always been there. Second, the way the crabs dig into the seabed <a href="https://forskning.no/meninger/kronikk/2015/05/snokrabben-skurk-eller-nyttig-mellommann">can release food</a> for other species. </p>
<p>The ecosystem is definitely changing, but we don’t really know if that’s going to be good or bad for the planet. It’s at times like these that we like to invoke the <a href="http://www.precautionaryprinciple.eu/">precautionary principle</a>, which suggests that we should avoid taking risks when consequences are highly uncertain but may include permanent losses or other unacceptable damages to present or future generations. In this case, that means stopping the spread of the crab until we know more. That way we can avoid making irreversible choices. </p>
<p>But humans also like to make money, and the global price of snow crab <a href="https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2018/02/06/snow-crab-prices-not-melting-any-time-soon/">keeps rising</a>. As the crab has expanded west, it has crawled out of Russian waters and into <a href="http://www.fao.org/tempref/FI/DOCUMENT/ec-sfs/2002/Stokke-Barents-FAO-Bergen.pdf">international waters</a> – more than 200 nautical miles from any shore – meaning any nation’s vessels could fish for them. Some EU and Norwegian vessels started doing that around 2012. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209616/original/file-20180308-30983-u38ype.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209616/original/file-20180308-30983-u38ype.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209616/original/file-20180308-30983-u38ype.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209616/original/file-20180308-30983-u38ype.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=551&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209616/original/file-20180308-30983-u38ype.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209616/original/file-20180308-30983-u38ype.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209616/original/file-20180308-30983-u38ype.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=692&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The snow crabs’ expansion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brooks Kaiser</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718300070">This fishing has an added bonus</a>: it has reduced the population of crabs that remain on the seabed that could continue moving west and changing the existing ecosystems. And so market forces are currently helping implement the precautionary principle, which is unusual to say the least.</p>
<h2>Whose crabs are they, anyway?</h2>
<p>The crab’s advance into international waters meant anyone might fish crab and make money. But in 2015, Norway and Russia found common ground and changed the rules in their favour. </p>
<p>They used a loophole in international law to categorise the crab as seabed resource, basically equivalent to a mineral or oil, instead of a fishing resource. Reclassifying the crab means that the Russians and Norwegians can kick out vessels from other countries and keep the profits from the crab. This is because continental shelves define mineral resource boundaries, while distances to shore define fisheries boundaries. The Barents’ continental shelves extend beyond the 200 nautical mile fishing boundaries, and so this identity change benefits the Norwegians and the Russians.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.politico.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/SPOLITICO-17061514340.pdf">arrest</a> of a foreign crab fishing vessel in these Barents international waters spawned a lawsuit in Norway that has made it to the highest state court, which recently <a href="https://www.domstol.no/globalassets/upload/hret/decisions-in-english-translation/hr-2017-2257-a-snow-crab.pdf">held up Norway’s actions</a>. The case has potential to proceed to European courts. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210829/original/file-20180316-104673-nmnr05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210829/original/file-20180316-104673-nmnr05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210829/original/file-20180316-104673-nmnr05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210829/original/file-20180316-104673-nmnr05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210829/original/file-20180316-104673-nmnr05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210829/original/file-20180316-104673-nmnr05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210829/original/file-20180316-104673-nmnr05.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Koreans love their snow crab.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pxhere.com/en/photo/1225730">PX Here</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Broader truths</h2>
<p>But that’s not even the biggest controversy. The Norwegian continental shelf also extends to <a href="http://www.npolar.no/en/the-arctic/svalbard/">Svalbard</a>. Due to an <a href="http://library.arcticportal.org/1909/1/The_Svalbard_Treaty_9ssFy.pdf">international treaty from 1920</a>, anyone who wants to engage in commercial or scientific opportunities on Svalbard may do so. </p>
<p>This has led to a complementary <a href="https://www.neafc.org/">set of international treaties</a> which help govern fishing in the area around the archipelago. When international vessels were kicked out of the international waters, some moved to the Svalbard zone, <a href="http://ldac.chil.me/attachment/f6eb347b-06e7-4f41-ba15-9a3fa22f0c64">gaining international permits to fish snow crab there</a>. But Norway <a href="http://www.fiskerforum.dk/en/news/b/crab-catcher-arrested-in-svalbard-zone">arrested one of these boats</a>, too. EU states <a href="http://www.dpa-international.com/topic/eu-norway-row-crab-fishing-rights-arctic-waters-heats-180224-99-221213">continue to issue licenses</a>, against Norway’s insistence that they cease. The question at the bottom line is – do the continental shelf rules trump the 1920 Svalbard rules, or vice-versa? </p>
<p>This time, it is not just about profit from crabs. The stakes are high. The dispute is set to resolve broader questions about the seabed under the Svalbard zone. As valuable as the crabs may be, oil, gas and other seabed resources may be <a href="https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2017/04/norway-doubles-arctic-oil-estimates">many times more valuable</a>. Norway and the EU are at an impasse: legal arguments will have to decide whether Norway has the right to other seabed mineral and oil resources in the zone, or whether the resources fall under the open commercial access rules for Svalbard. </p>
<p>The consequences should also be expected to extend far beyond the Barents. Because climate change is making it more and more common for species to move <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/aqc.2764/full">in and out of legal jurisdictions</a>. This will require new ways of negotiating shared resources amongst interested local and global parties. And these decisions will then impact the ecological changes brought by the species, as well as who profits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93092/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brooks Kaiser receives funding from the Nordic Council of Ministers, the Danish Ministry of Science and Higher Education, the Carlsberg Foundation, and the Belmont Forum (Nordforsk). She is affiliated with the Polar Research and Policy Initiative. Colleagues Melina Kourantidou, University of Southern Denmark, and Linda Fernandez, Virginia Commonwealth University, also contributed substantially to the research behind this article. </span></em></p>The tale of the snow crab bears witness to the how the complexities of climate change and fights over fishing rights play out.Brooks Kaiser, Professor, Management and Economics of Resources and the Environment, University of Southern DenmarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/373922015-02-10T11:37:23Z2015-02-10T11:37:23ZWhy Norway is not panicking about the oil price collapse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71522/original/image-20150209-24700-qmba14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Steady as she goes</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&search_tracking_id=rDD6BJysB2sC_8xz4FVRJA&searchterm=norway%20north%20sea%20oil&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=66880">Simon Pedersen</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Norway’s petroleum sector is its most important industry. The petroleum sector <a href="http://priorfx.com/en/technical-analysis/usdnok-rises-test-range-highs/">accounts for 21.5%</a> of its GDP, and almost half (48.9%) of total exports. In 2013 Norway <a href="http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=NO&trk=m">was ranked</a> the 15th-largest oil producer, and the 11th-largest oil exporter in the world. It is also the biggest oil producer in western Europe. </p>
<p>Oil is therefore regarded as a vital national resource and is the backbone of the Norwegian economy, though just like in the UK, its best years are in the past. Production levels <a href="http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Norways-Oil-Decline-Accelerating.html">have been dropping</a> since the turn of the century, peaking at 3.5m barrels per day in 2001 to less than 1.9m in 2014. </p>
<p>Norway is not a member of the <a href="http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/">Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries</a>(OPEC), and in principle it sets prices based on the current market. But with OPEC having a virtual monopoly on global pricing, Norway in effect remains subject to the cartel’s pricing decisions. Norway is thus vulnerable to the volatility in oil pricing, and with regard to the structure of the sector and its role in the Norwegian economy, this vulnerability is extended throughout the society as a whole.</p>
<p>With the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29643612">unsettling and dramatic slide</a> in oil prices since June 2014, Norway has of course been substantially affected. Two months ago, Statistics Norway <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/oils-slump-threatens-norways-economy-1417721313">cut this year’s</a> GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1% on the back of lower prices. A few days later the central bank <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a83b09e-811c-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RGqgv8SE">unexpectedly cut</a> interest rates to an all-time low of 1.25% to help stimulate the economy. Some 12,000 jobs <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/norway-oil-jobs-idINL6N0V83L020150129">are being cut</a> as the oil industry pares back about 10% of its workforce, and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/oilman-becomes-milkman-as-crude-slump-kills-norway-s-best-jobs">there are fears</a> that nearly 30,000 more could follow. </p>
<h2>Statoil and the oil industry</h2>
<p>Oil in Norway is dominated by Statoil, the largely state-owned oil company, which controls about 70% of the country’s petroleum production. It <a href="http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/02/statoil-reduces-capital-budget-by-2-billion-following-4q-losses.html">reported staggering losses</a> in the third and fourth quarter of 2014 that were partly the result of the lower oil price – the company’s first loss since it listed on the stock market in 2001. Its share price is also down about a quarter on last summer. The majority of job losses in the sector are due to cost-cutting and reductions to capital expenditure that are aimed at steadying the ship. </p>
<p>Experts regard the low price as a difficulty mainly for the profitability of specific expansion projects, meaning that they could be postponed or even cancelled. High oil prices have made certain investments possible, which are now in trouble. For instance Statoil has held off on decisions on a US$6bn investment into <a href="http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/statoil-needs-more-time-to-decide-on-snorre-c/">the Snorre field</a> in the North Sea and <a href="http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2014/10/dot-2014-statoil-takes-hard-look-at-johan-castberg-costs.html">the huge Johan Castberg field</a> in the Barents Sea. </p>
<p>Consultancy Wood Mackenzie is forecasting that petroleum investments in Norwegian waters <a href="http://www.woodmac.com/public/media-centre/12525791">will be down</a> 25% this year, with foreseeable cuts in subsequent years too. There is at least one consolation for the industry: the huge <a href="https://www.lundin-petroleum.com/eng/Development_JohanSverdrup.php">Johan Sverdrup</a> field, which is due to begin output in 2019, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/statoil-recommended-to-run-johan-sverdrup-oil-field-1417185637">appears to be viable at</a> prices beneath US$40 a barrel. </p>
<p>The Norwegian government also <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/norway-to-award-oil-and-gas-drilling-licences-1421764096">recently announced</a> that by way of stimulus it would award a tranche of new oil and gas drilling licences next year, including opening up the first new area for exploration since the 1990s. It <a href="https://www.dn.no/nyheter/naringsliv/2015/02/03/2152/Oljepris/mange-tusen-oljejobber-kuttes">has also</a> called for the sector to adapt, suggesting that the height of exploration and development has been achieved for oil exploitation, and the sector must now consolidate its position. However, so far there have been few specifics. </p>
<h2>The national budget</h2>
<p>Unlike <a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/73904/sir-ian-wood-six-billion-barrels-north-sea-oil-lost/">in the UK</a>, the main narrative in the Norwegian media is not about cutting producer taxes but worry about the state failing to obtain its expected revenue as outlined in the country’s budget. Some experts <a href="http://e24.no/energi/naa-er-disse-oljefeltene-uloennsomme/23344749">believe that</a> if the trend continues the actual revenue collected for the pension fund this year could be as low as half of what was budgeted, which would doubtless be a blow. </p>
<p>Last month, Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg and finance minister Siv Jensen <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/norway-sticks-to-budget-plan-despite-oil-price-slump-1421421298">held a press conference</a> on the situation, underlining that the government is prepared to take action if this becomes necessary, but that for the time being, the state budget is sufficiently capable of containing the situation. This means there are currently no plans to make cuts to the budget to cope with lower revenues. </p>
<h2>Sovereign wealth</h2>
<p>The big advantage that Norway has is the US$860bn (£565bn) <a href="https://www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/the-economy/the-government-pension-fund/government-pension-fund-global-gpfg/id697027/">Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global</a> into which the oil money is deposited. Intended as an investment for future generations, it is <a href="http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/">the largest</a> sovereign wealth fund in the world. </p>
<p>Norway owns <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24049876">an estimated</a> 1% of global stocks and is <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/norways-sovereign-wealth-fund-top-15-around-world-1402003">considered to be</a> the largest state owner of European stocks. For a country with a population just over 5m, this is a position of remarkable economic strength – thanks primarily to petroleum. The revenue of the sector is not only important as an economic boost, but also as the foundation of the Norwegian welfare state. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Norwegian oil capital Stavanger will have less for the national oil fund than usual.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gufoblu/8044227659/in/photolist-dfQLCk-5DKwH-mDgfu-bZ2jUC-orNS9h-6dydwg-haqTNL-oJZP4E-2juJQq-hX1Nt-9jFiR-4Xo1wZ-5eSCm-84AEnD-9ozK8V-2AxuE-9hAeV2-5gP7Va-YPvcb-dhtRDD-81EV3L-nH7JAj-f5avKK-c9KrDf-6HNWA6-bKopPT-bNDFFc-ap1pub-3RRPgN-brWwbc-gEr3Y3-bG9RUP-8xjkdf-fg1zX1-8uwyjz-dNv2og-cFzDTj-qMSPkG-9ejhPG-5sqYxk-azdBsB-oq4CaZ-ophJVT-mqSnfp-bEHJjo-af4Ppf-6re2Vc-c2tBMd-kshrcg-YJYT2">Sergio Pani</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The government is able to spend up to 4% of the fund every year to finance its budget, albeit for investments rather than direct spending. This year, despite a substantial increase to the level of spending, it <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/01/16/norway-economy-idUKL6N0UV1PX20150116">will still</a> only run to about 3% of the total. This is also a country in which unemployment is very low – <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/oilman-becomes-milkman-as-crude-slump-kills-norway-s-best-jobs">below 4%</a>. </p>
<p>In short, the fall in oil prices is problematic but by no means catastrophic for Norway. The general reaction is a pragmatic one: Norway is in the hands of the global market, and will do what it can to maintain a profitable and responsible petroleum sector that serves the interests of the country. There are no illusions that the oil will last forever, or that prices must remain unnaturally high, and it is perhaps precisely these kinds of vulnerabilities that the Norwegian system safeguards against. Short-term losses are expected, but there is continued optimism for long-term gains.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Buvarp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Norway’s petroleum sector is its most important industry. The petroleum sector accounts for 21.5% of its GDP, and almost half (48.9%) of total exports. In 2013 Norway was ranked the 15th-largest oil producer…Paul Buvarp, PhD Candidate, School of International Relations, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.