tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/braddon-by-election-53663/articlesBraddon by-election – The Conversation2018-07-29T10:37:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1007412018-07-29T10:37:41Z2018-07-29T10:37:41ZView from The Hill: Malcolm Turnbull’s authority diminished after byelection failures<p>Those looking for signs before Saturday that Labor was on track for government might have found one, beyond the polls, in what could seem an unexpected quarter.</p>
<p>After having to postpone its national conference because of Super Saturday, the ALP is holding its briefing for business observers next month. The party has been swamped with bookings, requiring a change of venue to accommodate the large numbers. Business may be cheering on the Coalition’s policies but it knows it needs to find out about Labor’s.</p>
<p>The weekend results, in particular the way they’re being read, haven’t only confirmed Labor’s trajectory but in doing so, have given the opposition, and Bill Shorten especially, a huge confidence boost.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/crucial-super-saturday-labor-victories-a-major-fillip-for-shorten-100734">Crucial Super Saturday Labor victories a major fillip for Shorten</a>
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<p>Poll analyst Peter Brent points out, in relation to Longman and Braddon, how prior expectations have influenced post-event interpretations. “The unexceptional results — on the low side of swings to oppositions — were made to look exceptional by the opinion polling, which allowed the media and party insiders to whip themselves into a lather of expectation that the Coalition would probably take one, maybe both. … Against these anticipations, the opposition leader looks like a miracle maker and a vote magnet,” Brent writes on the Inside Story site.</p>
<p>But even taking into account this reality check, Labor can be satisfied its messaging - focusing on health, education, fighting inequality, opposing tax cuts for the largest companies – is hitting the right spot. And the delivery of that messaging has for the most part been effective, despite Shorten’s unpopularity.</p>
<p>On the old adage of “winners are grinners”, there’s nothing Malcolm Turnbull can say about these results that will cut through at the moment.</p>
<p>“Bill Shorten is punching the air as though he’s won the World Cup. The reality is that the Labor Party has secured an average or conventional swing in a byelection to it in Longman and has not secured any swing at all in Braddon.” Turnbull said on Sunday, and, “I have always said that history was against us”.</p>
<p>The fact remains, however, that Turnbull tried very hard in seats the government thought it was possible to win, and he failed. He did talk down expectations, but not far enough. And he had admitted byelections are “a test of leaders” among other things.</p>
<p>In contrast with Labor, Turnbull and his ministers face tough decisions about policy and approach.</p>
<p>Labor’s line “stop giving big banks a tax cut, and start funding our schools and hospitals” resonates. So if, as expected, the Senate remains opposed to those company tax cuts in the spring session, does Turnbull take them to the election, or dump them?</p>
<p>The obvious answer might seem, jettison them. But whether that’s the best answer is more complex. After more than two years of spruiking them as vital, it would make Turnbull look (to borrow an Abbottism) the ultra weather vane. And the voters wouldn’t necessarily be convinced - Labor would say, “he’ll bring them back after the election”.</p>
<p>Asked whether the government’s policies needed to change, Turnbull said on Sunday: “We will look very seriously and thoughtfully and humbly at the way in which the voters have responded” while also saying byelections “have special characteristics”. As to whether he’d take the company tax cuts to the election if necessary: “We are committed to ensuring Australia has a competitive company tax rate”.</p>
<p>More generally, although the Coalition has been improving a little in the national polls while still behind Labor, Turnbull still isn’t finding the right pitch and tone when talking to the electorate.</p>
<p>Before the 2016 election it was all positive - innovation, agility, the age of excitement. That didn’t wash with a lot of people. More recently, he’s taken to hurling insults at Shorten, branding him a serial liar. Even on Friday, when Shorten wasn’t on the hustings, leaving his candidates maximum opportunity to talk to voters at the pre-poll places, Turnbull claimed the opposition leader was in hiding. It was childish. The story from Turnbull’s own campaigning in Longman that day was about a woman having a go at him.</p>
<p>Volatile Queenslanders deliver conservative leaders the bluntest rebukes.</p>
<p>In March 2001 Ryan voters gave John Howard, still struggling with the GST backlash, a mighty kick. The government lost that byelection; the Liberal primary vote fell 7 points (the Coalition vote in Longman is down 9 points). Howard had already made some policy adjustment in anticipation of the drubbing. Later he retained the Victorian seat of Aston in a July byelection and went on to win the general election that year.</p>
<p>The Howard government’s various efforts, including its budget, helped the turnabout, and so (greatly) did unforeseen events (the Tampa affair, and the September 11 attacks). Turnbull can’t expect the unexpected, and he’s a less canny politician than Howard.</p>
<p>For the 2019 election, the state of Queensland is chocker with marginal Coalition seats (including that of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton).</p>
<p>The byelections have underlined the folly of running horses unsuitable for courses. In Longman the LNP’s “Big Trev” Ruthenberg was a big target, even before the controversy over his defence medal. When he was preselected Labor rubbed its hands at an opponent who’d been an MP in the unpopular Newman state government.</p>
<p>In Mayo the Liberals staged their own Dynasty episode, importing from Victoria Georgina Downer, daughter of the seat’s one-time occupant, former foreign minister Alexander Downer. It was a serious misjudgement about how to campaign against a popular crossbencher.</p>
<p>The ABC’s Antony Green has <a href="https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC/status/1023388897051430912">tweeted</a> that “it didn’t matter who the Liberal candidate was - they were not going to defeat Rebekha Sharkie. It was only a matter of whether the Liberal sacrificial lamb would put up a fight on the way to the altar or not”. By choosing Downer, rather than a strong local, the Liberals were ignoring the vibe of the electorate.</p>
<p>Now they seem set on letting Downer have another go, at the general election.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-disillusioned-voters-find-it-easy-to-embrace-a-crossbencher-like-rebekha-sharkie-100272">Grattan on Friday: Disillusioned voters find it easy to embrace a crossbencher like Rebekha Sharkie</a>
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<p>The high primary vote for Sharkie in Mayo (45%), the substantial vote for One Nation in Longman (16%), and the notable support for an independent, Craig Garland, in Braddon (11%) are all manifestations of the strength of the protest vote against the large parties.</p>
<p>People are angry about their own circumstances and about the politicians; they’re distrustful and alienated. It should be said these voters comprise different streams. One Nation supporters in Longman may have little in common with Sharkie supporters in Mayo. But they share a desire to say “up you” to the major parties.</p>
<p>Super Saturday hasn’t changed the numbers in the House of Representatives, or in the Coalition party room. There is no indication it will stoke a threat to Turnbull’s leadership.</p>
<p>But it has undermined the Prime Minister’s authority, which was rebuilding. As he tries to deliver on energy and in other key areas, Turnbull’s party enemies and critics will be encouraged in their attacks - over the National Energy Guarantee, immigration and the like. They will inflict more scars on his hide. And others in his ranks, simply worried about their seats, will be restless. We’ll see in coming months whether all this shifts policy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100741/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The weekend results, in particular the way they’re being read, haven’t only confirmed Labor’s trajectory but in doing so, have given the opposition, and Shorten especially, a huge confidence boost.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1006702018-07-27T03:47:08Z2018-07-27T03:47:08ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the Nine takeover of Fairfax and Super Saturday<figure>
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<p>Michelle Grattan speaks with University of Canberra’s Deputy Vice-Chancellor Nicholas Klomp about the week in politics. They discuss Nine Entertainment’s take over of Fairfax media, the issues facing Labor backbencher Emma Husar, likely outcomes for Super Saturday, and the Labor leadership tensions awaiting the by-election outcome.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100670/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan speaks with Nicholas Klomp about the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1006232018-07-26T12:52:46Z2018-07-26T12:52:46ZGrattan on Friday: Albanese is race-ready if byelection voters fire starting gun<p>Voters in Braddon and Longman probably aren’t even aware they could be pivotal to the future of Bill Shorten’s leadership and Anthony Albanese’s ambition.</p>
<p>Only the crazy brave would firmly predict how these knife edge ALP seats, in Tasmania and Queensland respectively, will fall out. And only those closely following politics would fully appreciate how carefully Anthony Albanese, Shorten’s bete noire, has been positioning in the event Labor tanks in them on Saturday.</p>
<p>Albanese’s long-odds chance to lead Labor now rests with circumstances beyond his control – in the first instance, with the decisions of voters more concerned with local health services than a tug of war within the opposition.</p>
<p>Weeks ago, the aspirant strutted his stuff in his Whitlam oration, arguing Labor needed a better relationship with business and should give more attention to non-unionised workers.</p>
<p>Interestingly Albanese, though from the left, was coming at Shorten from the right. The speech was cleverly drafted; the aim was to send a message but to deliver it subtly enough to minimise accusations he was undermining Shorten.</p>
<p>Albanese has been on the byelection trail and in the media, reminding people of his presence, but equally careful with his words. He’s visited twice each of the four seats Labor holds (the other two are safe contests in Western Australia) in Saturday’s five byelections.</p>
<p>Behind the scenes, there have been quiet preparations and assessments of potential support by the Albanese forces, in the event opportunity comes. Albanese backers - who include members of a divided NSW right faction - are confident the “anti-coup” protections Kevin Rudd put in place can be swept aside if the numbers are there for change.</p>
<p>But only a limited amount could be done. Albanese has had to avoid overstepping a line marked “disloyalty”. On Thursday he flatly ruled out challenging Shorten (a pledge to be regarded with scepticism – for example, would a delegation be regarded as a “challenge”?).</p>
<p>Caucus members don’t want a return to those horror days, in government, when Julia Gillard knifed Rudd and he speared her. Albanese supporters, however, look to an earlier precedent: Rudd’s overthrow of Kim Beazley when Labor was in opposition.</p>
<p>That was the ALP taking out “insurance” for a win. On the polls, Labor is headed for victory at next year’s election. But the numbers have tightened, Malcolm Turnbull’s performance has improved, and Shorten’s deep unpopularity has become an increasing concern for the party. Some in caucus would see a move to Albanese as today’s “insurance”. But the questions are: is this judgement correct, and how costly would the premium be?</p>
<p>Hardline advocates of a change would say that even if Shorten retains Braddon and Longman, the size of his margin will be important. On this argument, byelections normally see a solid anti-government swing, so wins by a sliver wouldn’t cut it.</p>
<p>This, in my view, is raising the bar ridiculously high, especially since Labor grabbed Longman in 2016 on One Nation preferences, which it isn’t getting this time. Two wins, whatever the margin, and those flirting with the thought of a leadership switch should recognise reality and get behind Shorten.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-dennis-atkins-on-the-longman-byelection-100589">Politics Podcast: Dennis Atkins on the Longman byelection</a>
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<p>There’s little doubt a double loss would take Shorten into a period of upheaval that could end in his downfall. The alternative would be an impasse that saw Shorten survive with gaping wounds - a gift to Turnbull.</p>
<p>One byelection loss, and there would much instability.</p>
<p>In either event, Labor “talking heads” would be everywhere, division on display, and the party atmosphere tense ahead of parliament resuming mid-August.</p>
<p>In any consideration of a leadership change, Labor would have to weigh the “transactional” costs. Moving from Beazley to Rudd was helped by Beazley behaving well after he was ousted, and by Rudd (in those days) being a popular breath of fresh air.</p>
<p>A deposed Shorten, to say nothing of some of his union allies, could behave badly. And while the personable Albanese, with his laid-back style, looks good by comparison with Shorten at the moment, he could become vulnerable as the Liberals dug into his political past, with some tough left positions. The thing about putsches is that a party can never be sure beforehand whether it will ultimately be better or worse off.</p>
<p>Having such a long byelection campaign (more than two months) was initially seen as a strike against Labor, which also had to postpone its national conference. If the ALP holds Braddon and Longman, however, the time will have worked in its favour.</p>
<p>As of Thursday Shorten had made (from early May) seven visits over nine days to Longman and eight visits over 11 days to Braddon.</p>
<p>If Shorten comes out of Super Saturday unscathed, or even enhanced, he should temper his elation and relief with self-appraisal, because complacency would be a risk.</p>
<p>After all, it was complacency – about Labor having proper citizenship checks in place – that led to the byelections in these two seats in the first place (as well as in its seat of Fremantle).</p>
<p>Meanwhile, post Saturday Shorten will have a big problem in another marginal seat that will need resolution. The scandal surrounding Emma Husar, Labor member for Lindsay (NSW), who is accused of misusing and bullying staff, is being investigated by the party. Claims of bad behaviour keep flowing into the media.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-mp-emma-husar-takes-personal-leave-as-party-investigates-conduct-towards-staff-100471">Labor MP Emma Husar takes personal leave as party investigates conduct towards staff</a>
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<p>Lindsay is ultra-vulnerable. The party needs to wrap up its inquiry ASAP; if its findings are against Husar her preselection should be withdrawn. But the last thing the ALP would want is another byelection, so she’d have to stay until the election – a messy scenario with a replacement candidate campaigning. If the party verdict is in Husar’s favour and it sticks with her, she’d still go into the election with immense baggage.</p>
<p>While all the attention is on Shorten, what are the consequences for Turnbull if he does badly on Super Saturday – failing in Braddon and Longman as well as in Mayo (South Australia) where crossbencher Rebekha Sharkie (also a citizenship casualty) is expected to hold off the challenge from the Liberals’ Georgina Downer?</p>
<p>It would be a setback for him, reinforcing the polls’ message that Labor remains favourite for the 2019 election. The government’s noisy conservative wing would become more assertive. But the outcome would be unlikely to trouble his grip on the leadership. The Liberals do not have an alternative who is hungry for Turnbull’s job right now, in the way Albanese is for Shorten’s.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Albanese backers - who include members of a divided NSW right faction - are confident the “anti-coup” protections Kevin Rudd put in place can be swept aside if the numbers are there for change.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1000112018-07-22T11:13:25Z2018-07-22T11:13:25ZAs Super Saturday nears, Labor gains poll lead in Braddon, but trails in Longman, while UK Tories slump<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228693/original/file-20180722-142432-1g5vwny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Longman byelection is so tightly contested it has drawn many senior politicians to campaign. Here Labor candidate Susan Lamb is flanked by Shadow Minister for Skills, TAFE and Apprenticeships Doug Cameron, and Deputy Leader of the Opposition Tanya Plibersek.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Glenn Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Five federal byelections will be held on July 28 – four in Labor-held seats and one held by the Centre Alliance. In the Western Australian seats of Perth and Fremantle, the Liberals are not contesting, and Labor is expected to easily retain. In the South Australian seat of Mayo, the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie has a large poll lead over the Liberals’ Georgina Downer. </p>
<p>The contested seats are thus the Tasmanian seat of Braddon (Labor by 2.2%) and the Queensland seat of Longman (Labor by 0.8%). Polls close at 6pm Melbourne time in Braddon and Longman, 6:30pm in Mayo and 8pm in Perth and Fremantle.</p>
<p>In Braddon, the Labor candidate, Susan Keay, held the seat until she was forced out through the citizenship saga. The Liberal candidate, Brett Whiteley, was the member until the 2016 election, so there will be little advantage for Keay from being well-known. A similar situation applies in Longman.</p>
<p>As noted in the article below, seat polls are unreliable, and there could be large errors in either direction.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-labor-and-lnp-tied-in-longman-sharkies-massive-lead-in-mayo-but-can-we-trust-seat-polls-98844">Poll wrap: Labor and LNP tied in Longman, Sharkie's massive lead in Mayo, but can we trust seat polls?</a>
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<p>At the 2016 election, One Nation recommended preferences to Labor in Longman, and <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-302.htm">Labor won 56.5%</a> of their preferences. At the byelection, One Nation is recommending <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/10/pauline-hansons-one-nation-directs-preferences-away-from-labor-in-longman">preferences to the LNP</a> — this could be crucial.</p>
<p>On July 17, The Courier Mail revealed that Longman LNP candidate Trevor Ruthenberg had a <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/07/19/10/38/second-error-calls-candidate-into-question">lesser military medal</a> than he had claimed on his parliamentary website while a state MP. On July 19, the same paper revealed Ruthenberg had also claimed the higher medal on his personal website. Ruthenberg has apologised and said it was an honest mistake.</p>
<p>A Longman ReachTEL poll for The Courier Mail, conducted July 18 from an unknown sample, gave the LNP a 51-49 lead over Labor, unchanged since late June. <a href="https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1020811743541395456">Primary votes</a> were 37.9% LNP (Ruthenberg) (up 2.4%), 35.8% Labor (Susan Lamb) (down 3.2%), 13.9% One Nation (down 0.8%), 4.2% Greens (up 0.9%), 4.3% for all Others and 3.9% undecided. </p>
<p>Labor’s weaker primary vote is being compensated by a stronger flow of respondent allocated preferences. 41% thought Ruthenberg’s medal error an honest mistake, 33% a deliberate error and 27% a careless mistake.</p>
<p>In Braddon, a <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5538702/labors-justine-keay-best-placed-in-close-braddon-race-new-poll-suggests/?src=rss">ReachTEL poll</a> for the Australian Forestry Products Association, conducted July 19 from an unknown sample, gave Labor a 52-48 lead over the Liberals, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/05/2018-braddon-by-election.html">Kevin Bonham’s</a> estimate of a July 6 ReachTEL poll for the left-wing Australia Institute, and a six-point gain for Labor since a Sky News ReachTEL poll in late May.</p>
<p>Primary votes were 40.7% Liberal (Whiteley), 34.3% Labor (Keay), 8.9% for independent Craig Garland, 6.7% for the Greens and 4.6% undecided. 22% of undecided voters were leaning to Labor and just 11% to the Liberals. 67% of all non-major party preferences were going to Labor.</p>
<p>Garland supports a moratorium on salmon fishing expansion, and is recommending preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberals.</p>
<p>In the <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/sites/defualt/files/Braddon%20polling%20brief_0.pdf">Australia Institute ReachTEL</a>, 37% thought the company tax rate for businesses with over $50 million in turnover should be reduced, 37% kept the same and 20% increased. The question is better than previous Australian Institute questions on this topic, which gave examples of large businesses – banks, mining companies and supermarkets.</p>
<p>A total of 68% supported penalty rates for workers in the hospitality and retail industries, and just 23% were opposed.</p>
<p>I believe Labor’s biggest problem in Braddon is the March 2018 Tasmanian election, in which the Liberals won easily.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/reachtel-polls-labor-trailing-in-longman-and-braddon-and-how-senate-changes-helped-the-coalition-97677">ReachTEL polls: Labor trailing in Longman and Braddon, and how Senate changes helped the Coalition</a>
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<p><strong>Update Monday morning</strong>: Galaxy has conducted polls of Braddon, Longman and Mayo for the News Ltd tabloids. In Longman, the LNP led by 51-49 from primary votes of Labor 37%, LNP 34% and One Nation 18%. In Braddon, there was a 50-50 tie. In Mayo, Sharkie led Downer by an emphatic 59-41. If Anthony Albanese were Labor leader, Labor would lead by 53-47 in both Longman and Braddon.</p>
<h2>National Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor</h2>
<p>Last week’s <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll">Newspoll</a>, conducted July 12-15 from a sample of 1,640, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, unchanged on three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (up one) and 7% One Nation (up one).</p>
<p>This was Malcolm Turnbull’s 36th successive Newspoll loss, six more than Tony Abbott, and three more than the previous record for a government. The total vote for left- vs right-of-centre parties was unchanged at 46-45 to the left.</p>
<p>41% were satisfied with Turnbull’s performance (down one), and 49% were dissatisfied (up one), for a net approval of -8, the first decline in Turnbull’s net approval since early April. Bill Shorten’s net approval was up one point to -24. Turnbull led Shorten by 48-29 as better PM (46-31 previously); this was Turnbull’s biggest lead since May 2016.</p>
<p>By 72-23, voters approved of the reduction in the number of immigrants to below 165,000 in the last year, down from an annual cap of 190,000.</p>
<p>By 40-34, <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b5cc17054c42ebf88bbf4c9fa066d7c7?width=650">voters thought Turnbull</a> and the Coalition better at maintaining energy supply and keeping power prices lower than Shorten and Labor, a reversal of a 39-37 Labor lead in late May. 64% thought the government’s priority should be to keep energy prices down, 24% meet targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions and 9% prevent blackouts.</p>
<p>By 58-32, <a href="https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b18ac3bf38e08daed0383c85a2788eef?width=650">Australians were dissatisfied</a> with Donald Trump’s performance as US president, with One Nation voters giving Trump his best ratings (63-29 satisfied). This poll was taken before the controversial Helsinki summit.</p>
<p>The better PM statistic virtually always favours the incumbent PM given voting intentions, and it means very little at elections. The final pre-election 2016 Newspoll gave Turnbull a 48-31 better PM lead, yet the Coalition barely clung to a majority. The PM’s net approval correlates much better with voting intentions.</p>
<h2>Essential: 51-49 to Labor</h2>
<p>Last week’s <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Essential-Report-170718.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted July 12-15 from a sample of 1,014, gave Labor a 51-49 lead, a one-point gain for the Coalition since three weeks ago. Primary votes were 40% Coalition (steady), 36% Labor (down one), 10% Greens (down one) and 6% One Nation (steady). Essential is still using 2016 preference flows, and this poll would probably be 50-50 by Newspoll’s new method.</p>
<p>There appears to have been a shift towards support for coal power. By 40-38, voters agreed that the government should fund up to $5 billion to build new coal-fired plants or extend the life of existing ones. By 47-24, they agreed that coal-fired power is cheaper than power generated by renewables.</p>
<p>38% (up one since April) thought the government should prioritise renewable energy, 16% (up three) thought they should prioritise coal and 34% (down one) thought both should be treated equally.</p>
<p>By 73-20, voters supported banning plastic bags in supermarkets. By 57-36, voters thought it would change their behaviour as a consumer. 46% both agreed and disagreed that the plastic bag ban was simply an attempt by supermarkets to reduce costs.</p>
<h2>UK Conservatives lose support to UKIP after soft Brexit</h2>
<p>On July 6, the UK cabinet agreed on a soft Brexit. On July 8-9, hard Brexit cabinet ministers David Davis and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/boris-johnson-resigns-as-foreign-secretary-brexit">Boris Johnson</a> resigned in protest. Despite the anger of hard Brexiteers, I believe PM Theresa May is likely to survive, as explained <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/theresa-may-likely-to-survive-soft-brexit-fallout/">on my personal website</a>. </p>
<p>Hard Brexiteers do not have the numbers to oust her within the parliamentary Conservatives, and there is little common ground between the Conservative right and Labour, so parliamentary cooperation between them will only happen occasionally.</p>
<p>In polls conducted since the resignations of Davis and Johnson, some of the Conservative vote has gone to the UK Independence Party (UKIP), giving Labour a 4-5 point lead in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election">last three polls</a>. The Conservatives had adopted UKIP’s rhetoric on Brexit, but now that they have settled on a soft Brexit, natural UKIP support is returning.</p>
<h2>In brief: Mexican election detailed results</h2>
<p>At the Mexican election held on July 1, the left-wing presidential candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, won a landslide with 53.2% of the vote. Left-wing parties won a majority in both chambers of the Mexican legislature. Details are on <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/mexican-election-landslide-for-the-left/">my personal website</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With the much anticipated Super Saturday byelections on Saturday, the polls in Longman and Braddon still show a very tight race.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/991042018-06-28T11:32:22Z2018-06-28T11:32:22ZGrattan on Friday: Bill Shorten had a ‘captain’s fall’ rather than making a ‘captain’s call’<p>One can only imagine the extreme tension gripping Bill Shorten, as the byelections in Longman and Braddon loom as “the only polls that count” for him in the immediate future.</p>
<p>For the first time in his leadership, the possibility of a serious threat to his position is there, resting in the hands of these voters in two marginal ALP seats in the south and north of the country.</p>
<p>Anthony Albanese has flaunted his availability, in the event of a Labor electoral disaster on July 28, with his speech last Friday which could have been titled “I’m not Bill”.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/anthony-albanese-sets-out-his-blueprint-for-labor-98776">Anthony Albanese sets out his blueprint for Labor</a>
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<p>On the other side Malcolm Turnbull and his crew, despite the polls and regardless of another failure this week to muster Senate votes for the tax cuts for big business, are looking more competitive.</p>
<p>Perhaps then it’s not so surprising that Shorten made a costly error when he responded to questions about Labor’s company tax policy, “announcing” (as we in the media put it) that an ALP government would repeal the legislated cut for firms with turnovers between $10 million and $50 million.</p>
<p>It’s been labelled a “captain’s call”, and angered colleagues. It was probably more likely a “captain’s fall” – Shorten answering reflexively, without thinking, believing that was where the policy was up to, or where it would be.</p>
<p>His office and colleagues at first tried convoluted rationalisations but they didn’t convince. Shorten might have done better to have said, “I stuffed up – that’s my recommendation, it’s not yet our decision”, and summoned a shadow cabinet meeting immediately to fix the matter. But only a few politicians are willing or able to use the mea culpa as a management tool when things go badly.</p>
<p>Such an “announcement” required the right framing. It also – most importantly – needed to include Labor’s stand on whether it would keep or repeal the cuts for businesses between $2 million and $10 million turnover.</p>
<p>Labor on Thursday was scrambling to reach its position for this band. Shadow cabinet will discuss it at a Sydney meeting scheduled for late morning Friday. In the political circumstances, it would be rash not to adopt the $10 million threshold. Some in shadow cabinet actually want Shorten’s position revisited and a $50 million threshold accepted.</p>
<p>Apart from framing, there was the question of timing. Would any leader thinking clearly create a situation where his opponents and the media were incentivised to trawl Longman and Braddon for businesses that would be hit by Labor’s policy? The ALP had refused to state its position since the legislation was passed last year – it could have waited a few more weeks.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-would-quash-tax-cuts-for-businesses-with-10-50-million-turnover-98940">Labor would quash tax cuts for businesses with $10-$50 million turnover</a>
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<p>Shorten’s mistake was inevitably magnified by the combination of the byelection context and the fact that Albanese, as part of strutting his leadership claims, had made a big point of urging better relations with business. Those relations have now plummeted. Business groups, currently frustrated with both sides of politics, didn’t hold back with their criticism.</p>
<p>Albanese’s play is notable, not least because while his wording in that speech and elsewhere is careful, to give deniability, his intention is so overt.</p>
<p>Here is a man obviously aware he’s running out of time. If Shorten wins the election, Albanese, 55, will be a senior minister, but not even deputy prime minister as he was, very briefly, in 2013. If Labor loses, the party will likely move on to someone else.</p>
<p>Some who flirt with the idea of a change believe Labor is on the cusp of regaining office but fear Shorten mightn’t get over the final hurdle.</p>
<p>Super Saturday, including four Labor-held seats and two key ones, has given Albanese an unexpected if long-shot chance at the job he covets. He’s not stabbing Shorten in the back; he is standing out there publicly displaying his ambition.</p>
<p>Shorten told caucus on Tuesday that Longman was “very close” and Braddon – where the Liberals did so well at this year’s state election – was “very difficult”.</p>
<p>A Courier Mail-ReachTEL poll published on Thursday of 814 Longman voters, taken on Tuesday, had the government with a 51-49% two-party lead. Labor’s Susan Lamb was on a 39% primary vote; the Liberal National Party’s Trevor Ruthenberg was polling 35.5%. Despite Hanson’s gyrations on tax, One Nation was on 14.7%. The Courier Mail reported that the preferences from the 21.3% minor party/independent vote were splitting 70% the LNP way.</p>
<p>There is no doubt Labor is, at this point, in a lot of trouble in these two contests. On the other hand, there is a month to go and it is always a risk, in making political judgements, of getting ahead of ourselves. The campaigning by both sides will intensify. Some Labor sources predict the ALP will claw back in both seats, saying the Longman LNP candidate, a former state MP, is vulnerable, and a campaign on “government cuts” will be potent in Braddon.</p>
<p>If Shorten lost both seats things would be very grim for him. A mixed result – win one, lose one – would throw Labor into a good deal of turmoil, with Shorten wounded but probably not mortally, although what happened in Newspoll would be carefully watched. Albanese would be faced with an invidious choice: whether to help re-strengthen his weakened leader or try to bring him down.</p>
<p>Any move to replace Shorten is made more difficult by party rules, byzantine factional splits, and the role of outside players such as the powerful CFMMEU, which is close to Shorten and would be disadvantaged if Albanese replaced him.</p>
<p>The stance of Labor’s NSW right would be critical – Albanese would need some support from there.</p>
<p>In a change, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen, from that faction, would be safe in his position.</p>
<p>But Labor’s deputy leader Tanya Plibersek would be an almost inevitable casualty if Albanese became leader.</p>
<p>Plibersek is popular with the ALP rank and file and with the public. In a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/personal-numbers-expose-shorten/news-story/95d9e03c99f11ab6f1c7f90204d2835a">May Newspoll</a> on preferred Labor leader, Albanese was on 26%, followed by Shorten and Plibersek on 23% each.</p>
<p>But Albanese and Plibersek are both from the left, and from NSW. Albanese would need a different deputy – a woman, but from the right and from another state, and with enough experience for the job. Affirmative action not withstanding, such a suitable woman would be hard to find.</p>
<p>The sum total of this is to say that any “Kill Bill” enterprise would be highly fraught for Labor.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE</strong></p>
<p>Bill Shorten after the Friday shadow cabinet meeting announced a compromise which retreated from his Tuesday position.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/shorten-announces-company-tax-compromise-but-business-still-critical-99149">Shorten announces company tax compromise but business still critical</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99104/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Shorten might have done better to have said, “I stuffed up – that’s my recommendation, it’s not yet our decision”, and summoned a shadow cabinet meeting immediately to fix the matter.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/990332018-06-27T10:36:41Z2018-06-27T10:36:41ZPolitics Podcast: Tanya Plibersek on Labor’s taxing times<p>Deputy opposition leader Tanya Plibersek talks on Anthony Albanese’s Whitlam oration, Bill Shorten’s unexpected announcement on rolling back company tax for medium sized firms, the “tough” Braddon and Longman byelections - and really fires up about mobile phones and over connected children.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/99033/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tanya Plibersek talks on Anthony Albanese's Whitlam oration, Bill Shorten's unexpected announcement on rolling back company tax for medium sized firms, and the "tough" byelections.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/976772018-06-05T05:42:38Z2018-06-05T05:42:38ZReachTEL polls: Labor trailing in Longman and Braddon, and how Senate changes helped the Coalition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/221693/original/file-20180605-175451-c2xlbw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bill Shorten and the ALP will need to work hard to win July byelections in Longman and Braddon.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sky News <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/06/03/reachtel-52-48-labor-54-46-liberal-braddon-52-48-lnp-longman/">ReachTEL polls</a>, conducted last week in the seats of Longman and Braddon from samples of over 800, gave the LNP a 52-48 lead in Longman and the Liberals a 54-46 lead in Braddon. </p>
<p>These polls represent a three-point swing against Labor in Longman, and a six-point swing in Braddon since the 2016 election. Longman and Braddon are two of the five seats that will be contested at byelections on July 28.</p>
<p>Primary votes in ReachTEL polls do not exclude undecided voters, and thus understate major party vote shares. In Braddon, primary votes provided were 47% Liberals, 33% Labor and 6% Greens. In Longman, primary votes were 38% LNP, 35% Labor, 2% Greens and 14% Others. Strangely, One Nation, which won 9.4% in 2016, does not appear to have been listed.</p>
<p>ReachTEL uses respondent allocated preferences, and this is helping the LNP in Longman. The major party primary votes appear to be about the same as <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-302.htm">in the 2016 election</a>, but the LNP is benefiting from a stronger flow of preferences.</p>
<p>While the Longman poll is bad for Labor, it is a one-point gain for Labor since a ReachTEL poll for The Australia Institute conducted <a href="https://theconversation.com/post-budget-poll-wrap-labor-has-equal-best-newspoll-budget-result-gains-in-ipsos-but-trails-in-longman-96513">after the May budget</a>. Individual seat polls have not been accurate in the past. With more than seven weeks left until the election, Labor can reasonably hope to hold Longman.</p>
<p>The March 3 Tasmanian election was a disaster for Labor, and this appears to have flowed into federal Tasmanian polling. Tasmania uses the same electorates for its state elections as the federal Tasmanian electorates. In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/tas-election-2018//guide/brad/">Braddon</a>, the Liberals won 56% at the state election, to just 27% for Labor and 4% for the Greens.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-romp-to-emphatic-victory-in-tasmanian-election-92180">Liberals romp to emphatic victory in Tasmanian election</a>
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<p>Analyst <a href="http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/05/2018-braddon-by-election.html">Kevin Bonham</a> says that the Tasmanian federal election results have been closer to the state election if the federal election came soon after the state election. In this case, the scheduling of the byelections for July 28 has helped Labor by putting more distance between the state election and the federal byelection for Braddon.</p>
<p>Another problem for Labor in Braddon is that the Liberal candidate is the former MP Brett Whiteley. As Whiteley is well-known in that electorate, Labor’s Justine Keay will not benefit as much from a “sophomore surge” effect.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/centre-alliances-rebekha-sharkie-most-vulnerable-at-byelections-forced-by-dual-citizenship-saga-96401">Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie most vulnerable at byelections forced by dual citizenship saga</a>
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<h2>National ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor</h2>
<p>Sky News also released a national ReachTEL poll, conducted last week from a sample of over 2,000. Labor had a 52-48 lead in this poll, unchanged from early May. Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down one), 34% Labor (down one), 11% Greens (up one) and 9% One Nation (up three).</p>
<p>This poll was probably taken before Pauline Hanson and Brian Burston had a falling-out. <a href="https://twitter.com/kevinbonham/status/1003048699382018050">Bonham estimated</a> this poll was 53-47 to Labor by 2016 election preferences.</p>
<p>By 49-43, <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5792871269001">voters supported</a> reducing the company tax rate to 25% for “all” businesses, a similar result to an Ipsos poll in early April (49-40 support). However, a late March ReachTEL that asked about tax cuts for “big” companies had voters opposed 56-29.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/poll-wrap-newspoll-not-all-bad-news-for-turnbull-as-coalitions-position-improves-94636">Poll wrap: Newspoll not all bad news for Turnbull as Coalition's position improves</a>
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<p>Voters were more favourable to the company tax cuts in Braddon (56-38 support) and Longman (58-33 support) than nationally.</p>
<p>By a narrow 47-45 margin, <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_5793085102001">voters nationally</a> opposed refugees on Nauru and Manus Island being allowed to settle in Australia. Opposition was far stronger in Braddon (60-31) and Longman (66-28). By 59-27, voters nationally agreed that there should be a 90-day limit on refugee detention.</p>
<h2>National Essential: 54-46 to Labor</h2>
<p>This week’s <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Essential-Report-050618-1.pdf">Essential poll</a>, conducted May 31 to June 3 from a sample of 1,025, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, a three-point gain for Labor since last fortnight. Primary votes were 37% Labor (up one), 36% Coalition (down four), 10% Greens (steady) and 8% One Nation (steady).</p>
<p>Essential still uses the 2016 election preference flows, so this poll would be 53-47 by Newspoll’s new methods. Labor’s position in the national polls has improved since late May, when Parliament resumed its sitting.</p>
<p>Turnbull’s net approval was up two points since early May to a net zero. Shorten’s net approval was down nine points to -13. Turnbull led Shorten by 41-27 as better PM (40-26 in May).</p>
<p>37% both approved and disapproved of cutting the “tax rate for businesses from 30% to 25%, estimated to cost $65 billion over the next 10 years”.</p>
<p>50% thought the Newstart payment of $270 per week for a single person with no children was too low, 26% about right and 9% too high. At least 64% agreed with five statements about Newstart that implied it should be increased.</p>
<h2>How the Senate has changed since the 2016 election</h2>
<p>At the <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/website/SenatePartyRepresentation-20499.htm">2016 election</a>, the Coalition won 30 of the 76 senators, Labor 26, the Greens nine, One Nation four, the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) three and Others four. The four Others were Bob Day, David Leyonhjelm, Derryn Hinch and Jacqui Lambie. 39 votes are required to pass legislation through the Senate.</p>
<p>On a right vs left count, the Coalition, One Nation, Day and Leyonhjelm were right-wing senators, and Labor and the Greens left. If all of the right-wing senators voted for Coalition legislation, they needed three of the five centrists on bills opposed by Labor and the Greens. As the NXT controlled three senators, the Coalition needed to work with them.</p>
<p>Since the election, there have been several changes to party composition.</p>
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<li>In February 2017, Cory Bernardi <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-07/cory-bernardi-formally-quits-liberal-party/8247402">resigned from the Liberals</a> to start his own Australian Conservatives party.</li>
<li>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-05/family-first-bob-day-election-ruled-invalid-by-high-court/8417204">April 2017</a>, the High Court disqualified Bob Day, and he was replaced by Lucy Gichuhi, the second candidate on Family First’s South Australian Senate ticket. Gichuhi <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-02/lucy-gichuhi-independent-senator-joins-liberal-party/9392018">joined the Liberals</a> in February 2018.</li>
<li>In October 2017, the High Court disqualified One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts, and he was replaced by Fraser Anning, who <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-down-a-senator-after-fraser-anning-quits-an-hour-after-being-sworn-in-20171113-gzk1ck.html">promptly resigned</a> from One Nation. On Monday, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/04/former-one-nation-senator-fraser-anning-joins-katter-party?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">Anning joined Katter’s</a> Australian Party.</li>
<li>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-14/jacqui-lambie-resigns-over-citizenship/9145716">November 2017</a>, Lambie resigned owing to the citizenship fiasco, and she was replaced by Steve Martin. Martin joined the Nationals in May 2018.</li>
<li>In November 2017, NXT Senator Skye Kakoschke-Moore resigned over the citizenship fiasco, and was replaced in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-13/skye-kakoschke-moore-high-court-throws-out-bid-senate/9431730">February 2018</a> by Tim Storer, who had been expelled from the NXT.</li>
<li>Last week, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and Brian Burston had a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/01/one-nation-launches-internal-inquiry-into-claims-brian-burston-tried-to-defect">falling-out</a> after Burston said he would vote for the company tax cuts, in opposition to current One Nation policy.</li>
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<p>As a result of these changes, the Coalition has gained one net seat to have 31 senators, Labor and the Greens are unchanged, One Nation is down two to two, the Centre Alliance (formerly NXT) is down one to two, and Others are up two to six. Others now include Bernardi, Anning, Storer and Burston, but not Day or Lambie.</p>
<p>Bernardi, Anning and Burston are right-wing senators. Including One Nation and Leyonhjelm, there are now 37 right senators. If they all vote the same way, the Coalition requires either the two Centre Alliance senators, or Hinch and Storer, to pass legislation opposed by Labor and the Greens.</p>
<p>The changes to the Senate have improved the Coalition’s position, as they now have two options rather than one if Labor and the Greens oppose legislation.</p>
<h2>In brief: Spanish conservative government falls, Italian populist government formed, Ontario election June 7</h2>
<p>On June 1, the Spanish conservative government lost a confidence vote, and was replaced by a Socialist government. Three months after the March 4 Italian election, a government of two populist parties has been formed. You can read more at <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/spanish-conservative-government-falls-italian-populist-government-formed/">my personal website</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/newspoll-round-up-labor-leading-in-victoria-and-tied-in-new-south-wales-populists-dominate-in-italy-93051">Newspoll round-up: Labor leading in Victoria and tied in New South Wales; populists dominate in Italy</a>
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<p>Canada’s most populous province of Ontario holds an election on June 7, with polls closing at 11am on Friday Melbourne time. Ontario uses First Past the Post. After 15 years of government by the centre-left Liberals, the Conservatives looked likely to win this election in a landslide.</p>
<p>However, the NDP, the most left-wing major party, surged, and is currently tied with the Conservatives in CBC analyst Éric Grenier’s <a href="https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/">Poll Tracker</a>, but the Conservatives are shown as winning a majority of seats. The Conservative leader, Doug Ford, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/30/doug-ford-ontario-conservative-trump-comparison-canada">has been compared</a> to Donald Trump.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97677/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>ReachTEL polls show Labor is behind in key byelections, but Essential has better news for Bill Shorten.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/972522018-05-25T02:48:36Z2018-05-25T02:48:36ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on Labor’s byelection bother<figure>
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<p>Michelle Grattan speaks with University of Canberra’s Vice-chancellor Deep Saini about the week in politics. They discuss the conundrum Labor faces with the super Saturday by-elections set for the same weekend as their national conference, Pauline Hanson withdrawing One Nation’s support for the big company tax cuts, and what Andrew Hastie’s parliamentary speech about Chau Chak Wing means for Australia’s relations with China.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97252/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan speaks with Deep Saini about the week in politics.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/972102018-05-24T13:14:48Z2018-05-24T13:14:48ZGrattan on Friday: ‘Super Saturday’ is not so super in Labor’s eyes<p>It’s not much good Labor playing the blame game about the July 28 date of the five Super Saturday byelections. In fair part, it has been the architect of its own troubles.</p>
<p>If Bill Shorten had agreed last year to dealing with any Labor MPs who had questionable citizenship status when they nominated, this would be over. But he insisted the ALP members were all okay. They weren’t. It was a case of hubris and short-term tactics.</p>
<p>Now the ALP has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-outraged-as-july-28-super-saturday-overlaps-alp-conference-97189">hit</a> with a byelection date that means its July 26-28 national conference has to be postponed. More important, the campaigning will be strung out and so enormously expensive for Labor – which must spend whatever it takes. This will bleed its funds in the run up to a general election.</p>
<p>The new government regulations designed to avoid fresh dual citizenship issues have delayed things - whether excessively can be argued over.</p>
<p>Labor can cry partisanship and rage at Speaker Tony Smith, who sets byelection dates, the Australian Electoral Commission, which advised July 28 was the “optimal” day, and the government, which is consulted by the Speaker (as is the opposition).</p>
<p>But the date can’t be changed. The ALP just has to suck it up and throw itself into battle, because the stakes are very high. Four of the five seats belong to Labor. The results in two of them will be crucial for Bill Shorten’s standing and leadership.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-anthony-albanese-on-labors-national-conference-97099">Politics podcast: Anthony Albanese on Labor's National Conference</a>
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<p>Moving the national conference will bring inconvenience and financial costs. But there are upsides. Pre-conference wrangling over refugee policy was already underway – policy jostling would have been a negative if the byelection date had been early July.</p>
<p>To be frank, Shorten would be better off if the conference could be scrapped. Whenever it is held, it will inevitably highlight internal differences. Killing it altogether, however, isn’t feasible.</p>
<p>The July 28 date sparked speculation about whether Malcolm Turnbull could later morph the byelections into an early election. Prime Ministerial sources say “absolutely not”.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/post-budget-poll-wrap-labor-has-equal-best-newspoll-budget-result-gains-in-ipsos-but-trails-in-longman-96513">polls</a> are tightening – Newspoll and Essential both have Labor’s two- party lead at a modest 51-49% - and there is a better vibe around for the government. But Turnbull needs more time and besides, after repeatedly saying the election is next year he would be marked down for going back on his word.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/post-budget-poll-wrap-labor-has-equal-best-newspoll-budget-result-gains-in-ipsos-but-trails-in-longman-96513">Post-budget poll wrap: Labor has equal best Newspoll budget result, gains in Ipsos, but trails in Longman</a>
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<p>While Super Saturday has implications for Turnbull, it is Shorten who has most at risk. If the status quo holds, Turnbull can say, that’s byelections for you.</p>
<p>Apart from the four Labor seats, the other contest is in the South Australian electorate of Mayo, which has been held by the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie. The long campaign will be financially hard for her; she’s up against a well-known, well-resourced Liberal candidate in Georgina Downer. But some Liberal sources say Sharkie is popular on the ground and a crossbencher in a semi-rural seat can dig in.</p>
<p>It is Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania, both on close margins, that are the crunch seats for Shorten (the Liberals aren’t standing in the Western Australian seats of Perth and Fremantle). Essentially, voters in these two seats will determine whether Shorten’s leadership becomes an issue.</p>
<p>While his position has been safe, Shorten operates against background chatter about whether, when push comes to election shove, he will get Labor over the line. So far the opinion poll evidence has suggested he will, but in Labor there’s concern about voters’ negative response to him.</p>
<p>He’s sensitive to the speculation, with always an eye to Anthony Albanese, the man he beat for the leadership after Labor’s 2013 loss. Albanese, with an eye to expectations, predicts Labor will hold all of its four seats on Super Saturday.</p>
<p>Shorten’s position was impregnable following the ALP’s strong showing at the 2016 election. It is still robust, and in the normal course there would be no possibility of change.</p>
<p>But “Super Saturday” has injected the abnormal, a new test in real time.</p>
<p>Apart from Tim Hammond’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-mp-tim-hammond-quits-for-family-reasons-creating-byelection-in-wa-95931">resignation</a> from the seat of Perth for personal reasons, the contests in the other three Labor seats are because of the citizenship crisis. In the government electorates of New England and Bennelong last year, voters weren’t censorious about MPs’ constitutional carelessness; Labor hopes the tolerance has lasted.</p>
<p>If Shorten lost Braddon or Longman he would be flying against history – only once (in 1920, when the Labor member had been expelled from parliament) has a government won a seat from the opposition at a federal byelection.</p>
<p>A defeat in one of either Braddon or Longman would be destabilising for Shorten. He’d likely hold onto his leadership, but everything would become more difficult, including managing a delayed national conference.</p>
<p>If Shorten lost both seats, anything could happen. Labor would be shaken to its core.</p>
<p>At the worst, there could be a leadership move against him, although the ALP rules would work to protect him. Under changes sponsored by Kevin Rudd, who knew a thing or two about coups, 60% of caucus must petition to open the opposition leadership during a term – then a lengthy ballot involves the rank and file as well as the caucus.</p>
<p>But Caucus is master of its destiny and so can vote to wind back the clock from the Rudd <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-more-coups-against-labor-pms-under-new-rudd-rules-15887">rule</a>. Overturning the rule, however, would be extremely controversial, although it could not be entirely ruled out if two seats were lost.</p>
<p>At the very least, losing both seats would fundamentally change the political dynamics for Shorten.</p>
<p>Both Shorten and Turnbull have been on the campaign road for the byelections. At this early stage, neither side seems to have a fix on Longman and Braddon. The Liberals point to history. Labor remains nervous.</p>
<p>The Liberals polled well in Braddon at the state election. Their candidate is the former Liberal federal member for the seat, Brett Whiteley.</p>
<p>Last time the ALP won Longman on One Nation preferences, which it won’t get again. A recent poll was positive for the Liberal National Party, which is running a former state MP.</p>
<p>In each of the campaigns, local factors will be critical. But the national argument about tax will also be in play, with two competing income tax packages on display, and also the government’s tax cut for big business, from which Pauline Hanson, with Longman in mind, withdrew her support this week.</p>
<p>We know from history that key byelections can have big political impacts. And that’s been when there was only one on the day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ALP just has to suck it up and throw itself into battle, because the stakes are very high.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/970992018-05-23T08:21:25Z2018-05-23T08:21:25ZPolitics podcast: Anthony Albanese on Labor’s National Conference<p>Labor is facing tough tests in coming byelections in its narrowly held seats of Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania. </p>
<p>Later on, managing the ALP national conference will be a challenge for Bill Shorten who will be anxious to avoid damaging displays of division over controversial issues.</p>
<p>Labor Frontbencher Anthony Albanese is putting on a confident face about the byelections. On the conference, he predicts there will not be a “substantial change” in Labor’s refugee policy. On the issue of recognition of Palestine, another sensitive issue within the party, he says “if you support a two-state solution then by definition one of those states will be Palestine.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/97099/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese is confident their candidates will win back their seats and is gearing up for the ALP's National Conference in late July.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.