tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/california-1445/articlesCalifornia – The Conversation2024-03-27T17:07:01Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2265582024-03-27T17:07:01Z2024-03-27T17:07:01ZThe total solar eclipse in North America could help shed light on a persistent puzzle about the Sun<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584141/original/file-20240325-24-ot473c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/totality-during-2023-australian-total-solar-2344355767">aeonWAVE / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/types/#hds-sidebar-nav-1">total solar eclipse</a> takes place on <a href="https://science.nasa.gov/eclipses/future-eclipses/eclipse-2024/">April 8 across North America</a>. These events occur when the Moon passes between the Sun and Earth, completely blocking the Sun’s face. This plunges observers into a darkness similar to dawn or dusk.</p>
<p>During the upcoming eclipse, the path of totality, where observers experience the darkest part of the Moon’s shadow (the umbra), crosses Mexico, arcing north-east through Texas, the Midwest and briefly entering Canada before ending in Maine.</p>
<p>Total solar eclipses occur roughly <a href="https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/solar-eclipse-guide.html">every 18 months at some location on Earth</a>. The last total solar eclipse that crossed the US took place on August 21 2017. </p>
<p>An international team of scientists, led by Aberystwyth University, will be conducting experiments from <a href="https://www.fox4news.com/news/2024-eclipse-dallas-crowds-traffic">near Dallas</a>, at a location in the path of totality. The team consists of PhD students and researchers from Aberystwyth University, Nasa Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland, and Caltech (California Institute of Technology) in Pasadena. </p>
<p>There is valuable science to be done during eclipses that is comparable to or better than what we can achieve via space-based missions. Our experiments may also shed light on a longstanding puzzle about the outermost part of the Sun’s atmosphere – its corona.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Eclipse shadow" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584503/original/file-20240326-18-9yqs13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The path of eclipse totality passes through Mexico, the US and Canada.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5186/">NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Sun’s intense light is blocked by the Moon during a total solar eclipse. This means that we can observe the <a href="https://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/corona.shtml">Sun’s faint corona</a> with incredible clarity, from distances very close to the Sun, out to several solar radii. One radius is the distance equivalent to half the Sun’s diameter, about 696,000km (432,000 miles).</p>
<p>Measuring the corona is extremely difficult without an eclipse. It requires a special telescope <a href="https://www.space.com/what-is-a-coronagraph.html">called a coronagraph</a> that is designed to block out direct light from the Sun. This allows fainter light from the corona to be resolved. The clarity of eclipse measurements surpasses even coronagraphs based in space.</p>
<p>We can also observe the corona on a relatively small budget, compared to, for example, spacecraft missions. A persistent puzzle about the corona is the observation <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/9781119815600.ch2">that it is much hotter</a> than the photosphere (the visible surface of the Sun). As we move away from a hot object, the surrounding temperature should decrease, not increase. How the corona is heated to such high temperatures is one question we will investigate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Solar eclipse." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584507/original/file-20240326-20-xairh2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/solar-eclipse-diagram-1146598682">Andramin / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>We have two main scientific instruments. The first of these is Cip (coronal imaging polarimeter). Cip is also the Welsh word for “glance”, or “quick look”. The instrument takes images of the Sun’s corona with a polariser. </p>
<p>The light we want to measure from the corona is highly polarised, which means it is made up of waves that vibrate in a single geometric plane. A polariser is a filter that lets light with a particular polarisation pass through it, while blocking light with other polarisations. </p>
<p>The Cip images will allow us to measure fundamental properties of the corona, such as its density. It will also shed light on phenomena such as the solar wind. This is a stream of sub-atomic particles in the form of plasma – superheated matter – flowing continuously outward from the Sun. Cip could help us identify sources in the Sun’s atmosphere for certain solar wind streams.</p>
<p>Direct measurements of the magnetic field in the Sun’s atmosphere are difficult. But the eclipse data should allow us to study its fine-scale structure and trace the field’s direction. We’ll be able to see how far magnetic structures called large “closed” magnetic loops extend from the Sun. This in turn will give us information about large-scale magnetic conditions in the corona.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Coronal loops." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/584489/original/file-20240326-24-zlpsmc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coronal loops are found around sunspots and in active regions of the Sun.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/coronal-loops-an-active-region-of-sun/">NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second instrument is Chils (coronal high-resolution line spectrometer). It collects high-resolution spectra, where light is separated into its component colours. Here, we are looking for a particular spectral signature of iron emitted from the corona. </p>
<p>It comprises three spectral lines, where light is emitted or absorbed in a narrow frequency range. These are each generated at a different range of temperatures (in the millions of degrees), so their relative brightness tells us about the coronal temperature in different regions. </p>
<p>Mapping the corona’s temperature informs advanced, computer-based models of its behaviour. These models must include mechanisms for how the coronal plasma is heated to such high temperatures. Such mechanisms might include the conversion of magnetic waves to thermal plasma energy, for example. If we show that some regions are hotter than others, this can be replicated in models. </p>
<p>This year’s eclipse also occurs during a time of heightened solar activity, so we could observe a <a href="https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections">coronal mass ejection (CME)</a>. These are huge clouds of magnetised plasma that are ejected from the Sun’s atmosphere into space. They can affect infrastructure near Earth, causing problems for vital satellites. </p>
<p>Many aspects of CMEs are poorly understood, including their early evolution near the Sun. Spectral information on CMEs will allow us to gain information on their thermodynamics, and their velocity and expansion near the Sun.</p>
<p>Our eclipse instruments have recently been proposed for a space mission called <a href="https://www.surrey.ac.uk/research-projects/feasibility-study-moon-enabled-sun-occultation-mission-mesom">Moon-enabled solar occultation mission (Mesom)</a>. The plan is to orbit the Moon to gain more frequent and extended eclipse observations. It is being planned as a UK Space Agency mission involving several countries, but led by University College London, the University of Surrey and Aberystwyth University.</p>
<p>We will also have an advanced commercial 360-degree camera to collect video of the April 8 eclipse and the observing site. The video is valuable for public outreach events, where we highlight the work we do, and helps to generate public interest in our local star, the Sun.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huw Morgan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The eclipse will allow scientists to get rare measurements of the Sun’s atmosphere.Huw Morgan, Reader in Physical Sciences, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170732024-03-21T12:22:54Z2024-03-21T12:22:54ZCalifornia is wrestling with electricity prices – here’s how to design a system that covers the cost of fixing the grid while keeping prices fair<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582593/original/file-20240318-22-5gynnv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1492%2C995&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">As more homes like these in Folsom, Calif., add solar power, electricity pricing becomes more complicated.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaSolarPanels/cda216b3bcfe42e9bf425a353b24f812/photo">AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Small-scale solar power, also known as rooftop or distributed solar, has grown considerably in the U.S. over the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60341">past decade</a>. It provides electricity without emitting air pollutants or climate-warming greenhouse gases, and it meets local energy demand without requiring costly investments in transmission and distribution systems. </p>
<p>However, its expansion is making it harder for electric utilities and power grid managers to design fair and efficient retail electricity rates – the prices that households pay.</p>
<p>Under traditional electricity pricing, customers pay one charge per kilowatt-hour of electricity consumption that covers both the energy they use and the fixed costs of maintaining the grid. As more people adopt rooftop solar, they buy less energy from the grid. Fewer customers are left to shoulder utilities’ fixed costs, potentially making power more expensive for everyone. </p>
<p>This trend can drive more customers to leave the system and raise prices further – a scenario known as the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyinnovation/2017/09/25/three-ways-electric-utilities-can-avoid-a-death-spiral/?sh=46108d9b758d">utility death spiral</a>. One <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w25087">2018 study</a> calculated that two-thirds of recent electricity distribution cost increases at California’s three investor-owned utilities were associated with the growth of residential solar. </p>
<p>With abundant sun and solar-friendly policies, California has <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=60341#:%7E:text=We%20estimate%20that%20the%20United,MW">36% of U.S. small-scale solar capacity</a>, much more than any other state. And the state is engaged in a heated debate over <a href="https://calmatters.org/california-divide/2023/07/electricity-bills/">pricing electricity</a> in ways designed to make energy less expensive for low-income households. </p>
<p>We study <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/Intel2Grid">energy markets</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nKvcnXMAAAAJ&hl=en">public policy affecting energy and the environment</a>, and have analyzed various <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">retail electricity rate structures</a> and their economic impacts on power producers and consumers. Our key finding is that an income-based, fixed-charge rate structure of the type that California is currently considering offers the most efficient and equitable solution – if it is designed correctly.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_nT8Vld_uxQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The California Legislature approved fixed-rate electricity charges, based on income, in 2022. Now, state utility regulators are weighing a proposal that would formalize them.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Two-part power bills</h2>
<p>The debate over fixed charges began in 2022, when the California Legislature <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/utilities/bill-would-end-california-experiment-with-income-based-electric-bills">enacted an energy bill</a> that ordered state regulators to study income-based fixed charges and decide whether to adopt them by July 1, 2024. Then the state’s three largest utilities – Southern California Edison, Pacific Gas and Electric, and San Diego Gas & Electric – <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-website/divisions/energy-division/documents/demand-response/demand-response-workshops/advanced-der---demand-flexibility-management/joint-ious-opening-testimony-exhibit-1.pdf">submitted a proposal</a> to the state Public Utilities Commission in mid-2023 that would separate retail bills into two parts: a fixed charge and a variable charge. </p>
<p>The fixed charge would be a preset monthly fee, independent of energy usage but tied to income levels, so wealthier customers would <a href="https://calmatters.org/commentary/2024/02/utility-bills-reform-income-based/">pay a larger share of grid maintenance costs</a>. The variable charge would be based on the amount of electricity consumed and would cover the actual costs of electricity production and delivery. </p>
<p>Historically, these actual costs have typically ranged between <a href="http://www.caiso.com/documents/2022-annual-report-on-market-issues-and-performance-jul-11-2023.pdf">4 to 6 cents per kilowatt-hour</a>. Today, the average residential rate in California <a href="http://www.caiso.com/documents/2022-annual-report-on-market-issues-and-performance-jul-11-2023.pdf">often exceeds 30 cents per kilowatt-hour</a> because it covers fixed costs as well as electricity use.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A white utility truck drives toward a transformer tower framed by hills." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582626/original/file-20240318-26-e7mz10.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Southern California Edison truck at a transformer tower in Sylmar, Calif. California utilities are burying thousands of miles of power lines in an effort to prevent a fraying grid from sparking wildfires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaWildfiresUtility/65c4885a6bde436d9126f7b12b9d8959/photo">AP Photo/Christian Monterrosa</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>Who benefits?</h2>
<p>A two-part billing system that separates fixed costs from variable usage charges offers potential benefits for both consumers and utilities.</p>
<p>For utilities, the fixed charge offers a stable revenue stream. The companies know how many households they serve, and they can plan on the fixed amounts that those households will pay each month. Households that go solar would still pay the fixed charge, since most of them draw electricity from the grid when the sun doesn’t shine. </p>
<p>This approach provides financial stability for the utility and access to the grid for all. Consumers would benefit because with a certain amount of income guaranteed, utilities could charge significantly less per kilowatt-hour for the actual electricity that households use. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/C1NgtK5O9lO/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\u0026igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>One significant concern is that if electricity costs less, people may use more of it, which could undermine efforts toward energy conservation and lead to an increase in emissions. In our view, the way to address this risk is by fine-tuning the two-part billing structure so that it covers only a portion of the utilities’ costs through fixed charges and incorporates the rest into the variable usage rates. </p>
<p>Put another way, combining a lower fixed charge with a higher variable charge would ensure that utilities can still cover their fixed costs effectively, while encouraging mindful energy use among consumers. Ensuring affordable electricity for consumers, fair cost recovery for utilities and overall fairness and efficiency in the energy market requires striking a delicate balance.</p>
<p>Another argument from critics, often labeled “<a href="https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3GDHaOJeIp/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==">energy socialism</a>,” asserts that higher-income households might end up <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/06/california-income-based-electricity-fees-2025">subsidizing excessive electricity use</a> by lower-income households under the income-based rate structure. In our view, this perception is inaccurate. </p>
<p>Wealthy households would pay more to maintain the grid, via larger fixed charges, than poorer households, but would not subsidize lower-income households’ energy use. All income groups would pay the same rate for each additional kilowatt-hour of electricity that they use. Decisions on energy use would remain economically driven, regardless of consumers’ income level. </p>
<p><iframe id="WCZvM" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WCZvM/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Fixed fees are too big</h2>
<p>While our research supports California utilities’ approach in principle, we believe their proposal has shortcomings – notably in the proposed income brackets. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/06/20/california-electricity-bills-income-based/70331875007/">As currently framed</a>, households with annual incomes between US$28,000 and $69,000 would pay a fixed fee of $20 to $34 per month. Households earning between $69,000 and $180,000 would pay $51 to $73 per month, and those earning more than $180,000 would pay $85 to $128. </p>
<p>The middle-income bracket starts just above California’s <a href="https://statisticalatlas.com/state/California/Household-Income">median household income</a>. Consequently, nearly half of all California households could find themselves paying a substantial monthly fee – $51 to $73 – regardless of their actual electricity usage. </p>
<p>It could be hard to convince consumers to pay significant fixed fees for intangible services, especially middle-income residents who have either gone solar or may do so. Not surprisingly, the proposal has encountered considerable <a href="https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/05/08/the-income-graduated-fixed-charges-in-california-will-harm-customers-with-low-electric-bills/">pushback from the solar industry</a>. </p>
<h2>Finding the sweet spot</h2>
<p>In response to public outcry, California lawmakers recently introduced <a href="https://legiscan.com/CA/text/AB1999/id/2908602">Assembly Bill 1999</a>, which would replace the income-graduated fixed-charge requirement with fixed charges of $5 per month for low-income customers and up to $10 per month for others. In our view, this reaction goes too far in the other direction. </p>
<p>Capping fixed charges at such low levels would force utilities to hike their energy use rates to cover fixed costs – again, risking the death spiral scenario. Our research indicates that there is a <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">range for the fixed charge</a> that would cover a reasonable share of utilities’ fixed costs, but is not high enough to burden consumers.</p>
<p>Without utility cost data, we can’t pinpoint this range precisely. However, based on <a href="https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M520/K533/520533300.PDF">estimates of utilities’ costs</a>, we believe the caps proposed in AB 1999 are too low and could end up unfairly burdening those the bill aims to protect.</p>
<p>In our research, based on a hypothetical case study, we found a sweet spot in which fixed charges cover about 40% of utilities’ fixed costs. Charges at this level provide maximum benefit to consumers, although they reduce energy producers’ profits. </p>
<p>Our findings are similar to an <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/10177234">alternative proposal</a> jointly presented by <a href="https://www.turn.org/">The Utility Reform Network</a>, a nonprofit consumer advocacy organization, and the <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/">Natural Resources Defense Council</a>, an environmental advocacy group. This plan suggests a two-part rate structure with an average fixed charge of about $36 per month. Low-income households would pay $5 per month, and those earning over $150,000 yearly would pay about $62.</p>
<p>We believe this proposal moves in the right direction by ensuring fair contributions to grid costs, while also encouraging efficient energy use and investment in clean energy infrastructure. It could act as a guide for other U.S. states searching for methods to balance utility fixed-cost recovery with fair pricing and continued growth of small-scale solar power.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to remove unsubstantiated information about the 2019 Saddleridge wildfire in California provided by AP in a photo caption.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217073/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>California is considering a controversial proposal for utilities to charge customers for electricity based partly on household income. Two scholars explain how this approach could benefit everyone.Yihsu Chen, Professor of Technology Management in Sustainability, University of California, Santa CruzAndrew L. Liu, Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2214682024-03-05T20:11:08Z2024-03-05T20:11:08ZIt’s time we include cities and regions as equal partners in global climate negotiations<p>Last year’s UN climate conference (COP28) made history in Dubai by introducing — for the very first time — language on “<a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/636584">transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems</a>” in the final version of the negotiated text.</p>
<p>While significant, this achievement was not the only notable event of last year’s climate talks.</p>
<p>COP28 was also the occasion of the first <a href="https://www.unep.org/gef/events/conference/cop28-local-climate-action-summit">Local Climate Action Summit</a> (LCAS) which brought together over 250 subnational and local leaders. As part of this program a delegation of mayors and governors from around the world took the stage alongside world leaders.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/access-and-exclusion-what-cop28-revealed-about-the-dynamics-of-global-climate-diplomacy-220198">Access and exclusion: What COP28 revealed about the dynamics of global climate diplomacy</a>
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<p>The purpose of LCAS was to demonstrate how subnational authorities around the world are already taking action to bolster climate mitigation and adaptation, often surpassing the ambition of national governments. Such recognition is long overdue.</p>
<p>Subnational and local authorities have historically been grouped in with civil society and private interests as “observers” at COP negotiations. Such a categorization dismisses the fundamental role subnational governments play both in implementing a just transition and in managing humanity’s lines of defence against the climate crisis. </p>
<p>It is high time that subnational voices be heard loud and clear, alongside national governments, within the United Nations’ Conference of the Parties framework.</p>
<h2>Broadening diplomacy</h2>
<p>Subnational climate summits are by no means a novelty of contemporary global governance.</p>
<p>Conferences of cities and regions organized by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020929261">advocacy networks</a> such as <a href="https://iclei.org/about_iclei_2/">Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI)</a>, <a href="https://regions4.org/about-us/regions4/">Regions4</a>, <a href="https://uclg.org/">United Cities and Local Governments (UCLG)</a>, and the <a href="https://www.theclimategroup.org/under2-coalition">Under2 Coalition</a> have been around for decades. However, LCAS is the first gathering of its type to be included in the official program of a COP. This is clear progress.</p>
<p>LCAS sent the message that the parallel system of <a href="https://cris.unu.edu/paradiplomacy-cities-and-states-global-players">subnational diplomacy that has been developing over the past three decades</a> ought to be fully recognized within global governance. Indeed, our climate goals will only be reached if subnational and national governments begin working together ensuring that policy expertise and financial resources are shared among different levels of governance, <a href="https://unhabitat.org/local-action-for-global-goals-an-opportunity-for-enhancing-nationally-determined-contributions">including in national reporting to the UN</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A recording of presentations as part of the LCAS.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The ideas presented at the LCAS forum were an exciting vision for the future, however, more work must be done to make this vision a reality. </p>
<p>Specifically, subnational governments need more direct access to UN institutions and a greater ability to weigh in on global policymaking and intergovernmental negotiations as part of a broader effort to <a href="https://iclei.org/press_release/cop28-a-turning-point-for-cities-and-regions-in-climate-action-leadership/">“formalize subnational voices” in the agenda of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</a>. </p>
<p>These actions must be done in recognition of the <a href="https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/c5084924-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/c5084924-en">central role subnational governments play in implementing carbon reduction and climate change adaptation and resilience policies</a>.</p>
<h2>On the frontlines</h2>
<p>Subnational and local governments are “<a href="https://www.cities-and-regions.org/wp-content/uploads/lgma_towardscop28_final.pdf">key enablers of a just transition</a>” on the frontlines of the climate crisis with often greater legitimacy and competence to oversee context specific environmental transitions well-attuned to local needs. </p>
<p>It is worth remembering that <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/resource-efficiency/what-we-do/cities/cities-and-climate-change">cities emit up to 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions</a> and often serve as the economic engines of their respective nations. Cities therefore have a critical role to play in reducing energy demands and consumption. These are ambitions which can be achieved by incorporating densification, climate adaptation, public transportation and building decarbonization into future urban planning.</p>
<p>Regional governments constitute a pivotal link between local and central authorities and are often in a better jurisdictional position than national governments to lead the environmental transition. Regional governments already lead by spearheading efforts on <a href="https://regions4.org/project/regions-adapt/">climate adaptation</a> and <a href="https://regions4.org/news/launch-of-regionsadapt-progress-report-2023/">climate justice</a> — jointly tackling the twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss.</p>
<p>Ultimately, we must move beyond understanding subnational governments as “<a href="https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e1445">non-state actors</a>” — alongside businesses, NGOs and private individuals — and begin viewing them as state actors in their own right. This means giving municipal and regional authorities more opportunities to influence national and global environmental outcomes.</p>
<p>The multilateral declaration that created the Coalition for High Ambition Multilevel Partnerships at COP28 — endorsed as of now by 72 sovereign states — stimulates such progress, by encouraging national governments to create “<a href="https://www.cop28.com/en/cop28-uae-coalition-for-high-ambition-multilevel-partnerships-for-climate-action">inclusive institutional and informal processes to enable subnational governments to contribute to further enhancing Nationally Determined Contributions</a>.”</p>
<h2>Subnational leadership</h2>
<p>Luckily, the gradual recognition and inclusion of subnational authorities is underway and the trends are only accelerating. Meanwhile, some cities and regions have already leapt ahead by demonstrating path-breaking leadership.</p>
<p>Some, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/11926422.2021.2002702">Québec and California, have even become fully autonomous actors of global environmental governance</a>. California was a leading force in the Subnational Climate Action Leaders’ Exchange launched at COP27 as a forum for incubating new ideas. One of these ideas, the <a href="https://www.state.gov/lowering-organic-waste-methane-initiative-low-methane/">LOW-Methane initiative</a>, was later launched by a coalition of international partners at COP28.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org/canada/en/press-release/62299/as-quebec-takes-on-co-presidency-of-the-beyond-oil-and-gas-alliance-climate-organizations-present-their-expectations-for-what-this-new-role-means/">Québec was appointed to the co-presidency of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance</a>. The BOGA is a coalition of sovereign and subnational states committed to banning fossil fuel investments and production on their territory. Québec <a href="https://www.economie.gouv.qc.ca/en/outside-quebec/ban-on-petroleum-exploration-and-production">first accomplished this goal in 2022</a>, making it the first jurisdiction in North America (and one of the first in the world) to do so.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-the-scientific-basis-for-a-rapid-fossil-fuel-phase-out-219382">COP28: The scientific basis for a rapid fossil fuel phase out</a>
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<p>Such transformational subnational leadership raises important questions about the validity of continuing nation-state monopoly in international affairs, especially in this evolving era of global transformations and ecological crisis.</p>
<p>It is crucial that local and regional governments <a href="https://www.global-taskforce.org/organized-constituency-pledge-achieve-2030-agenda-and-reformed-multilateral-system-sdg-summit">be formally awarded a distinct status and role</a> in global governance institutions, differentiating them from <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/parties-non-party-stakeholders/non-party-stakeholders/overview/admitted-ngos#Constituencies-in-the-UNFCCC">other “non-state” stakeholders</a>. </p>
<p>The creation of the <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/personnel-appointments/2023-10-06/secretary-general%E2%80%99s-advisory-group-local-and-regional-governments-scroll-down-for-french-and-spanish-versions">Secretary General’s Advisory Group on Local and Regional Governments</a> undoubtedly represents a step in the right direction. However, much remains to be done to meaningfully reform multilateralism in the lead-up to the UN <a href="https://www.un.org/en/common-agenda/summit-of-the-future">Summit of the Future</a> next September and COP29 in December 2024.</p>
<p>Simply put, subnational and local authorities must be brought into the room where diplomacy and global governance takes place. An ambition which entails a critical reflection on the inherent interconnections between local, subnational and national activities.</p>
<p>Including the subnational and local levels is not just a good idea, it is a crucial stepping stone in achieving global climate goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marjolaine Lamontagne receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (Vanier Scholar) and the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Berthelet receives funding from the Centre d'étude des mouvements sociaux (CEMS - CNRS/EHESS), the École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) and the Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM). </span></em></p>Subnational authorities are leading the charge on a just transition and dealing with climate change impacts. It is time for this key role to be reflected in international climate negotiations.Marjolaine Lamontagne, Ph.D. Candidate in International Relations (Global Environmental Governance and Diplomacy), McGill UniversityCharles Berthelet, Ph.D. Candidate in Philosophy, Political Studies, and Sociology, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2236472024-02-16T13:19:35Z2024-02-16T13:19:35ZForest Service warns of budget cuts ahead of a risky wildfire season – what that means for safety<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575790/original/file-20240215-20-28tft.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=79%2C144%2C1867%2C1217&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Members of the Snake River Hotshot crew monitor a prescribed fire near Roberts, Idaho.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nifc/52530463314/">Austin Catlin/BLM</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A wet winter and spring followed by a hot, dry summer can be a dangerous combination in the Western U.S. The rain fuels bountiful vegetation growth, and when summer heat dries out that vegetation, it can <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/wf12064">leave grasses and shrubs ready to burn</a>. Drier than normal conditions, like many regions are experiencing in 2024, also raises the fire risk.</p>
<p>In years like this, controlled burns and prescribed fire treatments are crucial to help protect communities against wildfires. Well-staffed fire crews ready to respond to blazes are essential, too.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A forecast map shows above average temperatures likely across the US in July- August-September period for 2024, but particularly in the Western US." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576093/original/file-20240215-16-etn253.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center’s long-range seasonal forecast for summer 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=6">NOAA</a></span>
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<p>However, on Feb. 8, U.S. Forest Service Chief Randy Moore told agency employees to <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/inside-fs/leadership/fy2024-budget-overview">expect budget cuts</a> from Congress in 2024. His letter was thin on details. However, taken at face value, budget cuts could be interpreted as a reduction in the firefighting workforce, compounding recruitment and retention challenges that the Forest Service is already facing.</p>
<p>So what does this mean for the coming fire season? We <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=XgAzk2EAAAAJ">study wildfire policy</a> and fire ecology, and one of us, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=g2KEhV4AAAAJ&hl=en">Camille Stevens-Rumann</a>, has worked as a wildland firefighter. Here are a few important things to know.</p>
<h2>The fire funding fix</h2>
<p>While Moore’s letter raises concerns, the financial reality for fighting fires this year is likely less dire than it might otherwise be for one key reason.</p>
<p>The 2018 Consolidated Appropriations Act included what is known as the “<a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-115publ141/pdf/PLAW-115publ141.pdf">fire funding fix</a>.” It introduced a new budget structure, creating a separate disaster fund accessible during costly wildfire seasons. The fire funding fix allows federal firefighting agencies to access up to US$2.25 billion in additional disaster funding a year starting in 2020 and increasing to $2.95 billion in 2027.</p>
<p>Prior to the fire funding fix, fighting fires – suppression expenditures – consumed <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/defining-success-wildfire-funding-fix/">nearly 50% of the U.S. Forest Service budget</a>. As bad fire years worsened, that left less funding for the agency’s other services, including conducting fuel treatments, such as prescribed burns, to reduce the risk of wildfires spreading.</p>
<p><iframe id="DyoBq" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DyoBq/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>The fix protects agency budgets, ensuring that a high-cost fire season will not completely consume the budget, and that allows more funding for preventive efforts and all the other programs of the Forest Service.</p>
<h2>Prevention is a rising priority</h2>
<p>The Forest Service has also made fire prevention a <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Wildfire-Crisis-Implementation-Plan.pdf">higher priority in recent years</a>.</p>
<p>In 2022, it released a <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/Wildfire-Crisis-Implementation-Plan.pdf">Wildfire Crisis Strategy and Implementation Plan</a> that included ramping up fuel treatments to reduce the potential for large uncontrollable fires, as the West had seen in previous years. It called for treating up to an additional 50 million acres over 10 years.</p>
<p>That work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvac042">won’t be completed before the 2024 fire season</a>, but fuel treatments will be underway. They include prescribed burning to remove dry grasses, twigs, logs and other fuels in a controlled way and the use of heavy equipment to thin dense forest areas and create fire breaks by removing trees and vegetation. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/575801/original/file-20240215-18-mmzoyk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A wildland firefighter conducts a controlled burnout to help stop a fire near Spokane, Wash., in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nifc/52530781658/">Sienna Falzetta/BLM</a></span>
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<p>Prescribed burning must be done when conditions are safe to limit the potential for the fire to get out of control, usually in the spring and early summer. However, climate change is expected to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00993-1">shorten the prescribed burning window</a> in the western U.S.</p>
<h2>Staffing is still a concern</h2>
<p>Doing this work requires staff, and the Forest Service’s challenges in recruiting and retaining qualified firefighters may hinder its ability to accomplish all of its objectives. </p>
<p>In 2023, over 18,000 people were employed as federal wildland firefighters. While the Forest Service and Department of the Interior have not specified precise staffing targets, Moore has mentioned that “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/14/us-forest-service-wildfire-fighters-low-pay">some crews have roughly half the staff they need</a>.”</p>
<p>A recent Government Accountability Office report found that low wages and poor work-life balance, among other challenges, were <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-23-105517">barriers commonly cited</a> by federal firefighting employees. The government boosted firefighters’ pay in 2021, but that increase is set to expire <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/inside-fs/delivering-mission/excel/firefighter-pay">unless Congress votes</a> to make it permanent. So far, firefighters have kept the same level of pay each time Congress pushed back acting on the 2024 budget, but it’s a precarious position.</p>
<p>The agency has started many initiatives to recruit and retain permanent employees, but it is too early to assess the results. A recent study involving one of us, Jude Bayham, found that highly qualified firefighters were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103115">more likely to remain</a> with the agency after active seasons, during which they earn more money.</p>
<h2>Everyone has a role in fire protection</h2>
<p>Even with optimal funding and staffing, the firefighting agencies cannot protect every area from wildfire. Some of the defensive work will have to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/living-with-wildfire-how-to-protect-more-homes-as-fire-risk-rises-in-a-warming-climate-208652">done by residents</a> in high-risk areas.</p>
<p>Homeowners can reduce the fire risk to their own properties by <a href="https://csfs.colostate.edu/wildfire-mitigation/protect-your-home-property-from-wildfire/">following defensible space recommendations</a>. </p>
<p>These include keeping flammable vegetation away from buildings and reducing other fire hazards such as wood shingles, flammable debris in yards and pine needles in gutters. People should also pay attention to burn bans and avoid risky activities, such as leaving campfires unattended, setting off fireworks and using equipment that can spark fires on hot, dry, windy days.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Clearing away dead trees and brush within 100 feet of homes can help reduce fire risk.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The federal government and states have increased funds to help people reduce wildfire hazards on their property. The <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/secretary-haaland-announces-nearly-50-million-wildfire-mitigation-and-resilience">Bipartisan Infrastructure Law</a> of 2021 included millions of dollars to support fire prevention on <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/news/releases/usda-announces-new-round-of-investments-in-wildfire-protection-cwdg">state, tribal and private lands</a>. Several <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/what-we-do/grants/wildfire-prevention-grants">states also have programs</a>, such as Colorado’s Forest Restoration and Wildfire Risk Mitigation Grant Program to support <a href="https://csfs.colostate.edu/grants/forest-restoration-wildfire-risk-mitigation/">community investment in wildfire mitigation</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/the-year-the-west-was-burning-how-the-2020-wildfire-season-got-so-extreme-148804">Recent disastrous wildfire seasons</a> have shown how important it is to manage the fire risk. Consistent funding is crucial, and homeowners can help by taking defensive action to reduce wildfire risk on their property.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223647/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Camille Stevens-Rumann receives funding from US Forest Service, the Bureau of Land Management, and the US department of Agriculture. She used to work for the US Forest Service and works closely with Federal, State, and non-profit organizations that help manage forests across the western US</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jude Bayham receives funding from the United States Forest Service. He is on the Protect Our Winters Science Alliance. </span></em></p>A hot, dry summer on the heels of a wet winter raises the risk of wildfires.Camille Stevens-Rumann, Associate Professor of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State UniversityJude Bayham, Associate Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2221732024-01-29T16:38:10Z2024-01-29T16:38:10ZNasa’s Mars helicopter Ingenuity has ended its mission – its success paves the way for more flying vehicles on other planets and moons<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571847/original/file-20240129-15-v0glwl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2270%2C1360&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Ingenuity helicopter on Mars.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/27421/ingenuity-at-two-years-on-mars/">NASA/JPL-Caltech/ASU/MSSS</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is difficult to emphasise the significance of the milestone surpassed by Nasa’s Mars helicopter, Ingenuity. </p>
<p>The little (1.8kg) helicopter <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/resources/25608/nasas-perseverance-rover-lands-successfully-on-mars/">touched down with the Perseverance rover in 2021</a>. On 25 January, Nasa announced that the flying vehicle <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/after-three-years-on-mars-nasas-ingenuity-helicopter-mission-ends/">had to perform an emergency landing</a> which damaged one of its rotors and ended its mission. </p>
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<p>This reminds us that space exploration is still difficult to do. But Ingenuity’s three years on Mars proved that powered, controlled flight on Mars was possible. </p>
<p>The little helicopter lasted for far longer than had been planned and flew higher and further than many had envisaged. Beyond this Martian experiment, the rotorcraft’s success paves the way for other missions using flying vehicles to explore planets and moons.</p>
<p>The first landings on the Moon were static. The year 1969 was probably the most important one for space exploration, when <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission/apollo-11/">Apollo 11</a> and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission/apollo-12/">Apollo 12</a> brought astronauts to the lunar surface, but 1970 was the year for planetary exploration. </p>
<p>In 1970, we had the <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=1970-060A">first soft landing on another planet</a>, Venus. The first robotic sample delivered to Earth from the Moon. And the first robot rover to drive around another body (also the Moon). </p>
<p>Since then, following over 50 years of planetary exploration and technology development, there have only been a small number of successful surface missions, and even fewer were able to move. Venus was visited by a dozen static landers between 1970 and 1985, and never again. </p>
<h2>From rovers to helicopters</h2>
<p>Mars was only successfully landed on three times between 1971 and 1976 before the <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mars-exploration/missions/pathfinder/">Pathfinder lander</a> and Sojourner rover arrived in 1997. The European Huygens spacecraft then landed on Titan, the moon of Saturn, in 2005. </p>
<p>These attempts at reaching the surface are rare, extremely difficult, and, historically, the landers were hardly ever mobile. Yet the Nasa <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mer/mission/overview/">Mars rovers Spirit, Opportunity</a>, <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msl/home/">Curiosity</a>, and <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/">Perseverance</a> have all exceeded their designs and travelled further and further.</p>
<p>And Ingenuity flew.</p>
<p>It wasn’t the first spacecraft to fly. Those would be the balloons deployed by the <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=1984-128F">Soviet Vega 1 and 2 missions</a>, which floated over Venus in 1985. But Ingenuity had control, cameras, and connectivity. It took photos of its rover and of Mars from an entirely new perspective. It commanded the world’s attention and captured our hearts.</p>
<p>In Moscow, I had the chance to see models and replicas of the Vega balloons and the first lunar rover. They made a stronger impression on me than the Mars rover twins being used at Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in California. The Soviet missions were more audacious and different, and they were from generations ago, before my time and long before my career as a planetary scientist.</p>
<p>Ingenuity was audacious, original and completely new. The photos it took, of Perseverance, finding technology discarded from the descent module that carried it down to Mars and of the Martian vistas from a bird’s eye view, were breathtaking. Meanwhile, Perseverance also took videos of Ingenuity flying in the air. Nothing like it had ever seen before.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="CGI image of a silver drone with eight propellers over the Martian surface" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571881/original/file-20240129-23-b4r2m2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An artist’s impression of the Dragonfly spacecraft in flight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://dragonfly.jhuapl.edu/Gallery/">NASA/Johns Hopkins APL/Steve Gribben</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Future flights</h2>
<p>Ingenuity had a rough ride getting there, however. The entire Mars 2020 mission (of Perseverance, Ingenuity and their transport systems) was sudden. </p>
<p>Following Nasa’s withdrawal from the joint European Space Agency ExoMars programme, which included a Mars rover mission, the US space agency started developing one on its own. This rover, later named Perseverance, went from announcement to concept to development and launch in just seven-and-a-half years.</p>
<p>And Ingenuity wasn’t included onboard at first. As an idea, it was proposed late in the development phase of Mars 2020, and faced serious opposition. It added extra complexity, cost, risk and new failure modes. It was also driven by an engineering objective, with the possibility of a little outreach – the opportunity to communicate the mission’s science and engineering to the public – on the side.</p>
<p>Ingenuity wasn’t intended to last for very long. It was designed to prove helicopter flight in the thin Mars atmosphere. It targeted five short flights over a month. Possible outcomes included hard landings, toppling over, losing power if its solar panels were covered in dust, or losing communication when it was far from the rover (this happened several times). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Large silver balloon being launched in the desert." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/571874/original/file-20240129-25-1d0l8.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aerial robotic balloons, or aerobots, like this Nasa prototype, could one day explore Venus.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/jpls-venus-aerial-robotic-balloon-prototype-aces-test-flights">Nasa / JPL-Caltech</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it went way beyond expectations, surviving three years on the Martian surface, even through a dusty season, and making 72 flights. Much of its success was aided by the communication network that now exists at Mars. </p>
<p>Ingenuity receives instructions and transmits data to Perseverance, which communicates with a fleet of satellites that include the European ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter, Nasa’s Maven spacecraft, and the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. These, in turn, communicate with two deep space networks on Earth, systems of radio antennas around the world that command and track spacecraft. </p>
<p>It took 50 years of planetary exploration to get here, but already we can see the impact on future exploration that Ingenuity’s mission is having. The next interplanetary rotorcraft will be the <a href="https://dragonfly.jhuapl.edu/">Dragonfly mission to Saturn’s moon Titan</a>. </p>
<p>It will be a very different from Ingenuity. It will weigh about a ton and fly with eight rotors. It is a huge vehicle designed to fly in Titan’s thick atmosphere. </p>
<p>One of the next Red Planet missions will be Mars Sample Return, aiming to collect sample containers of Martian soil being prepared and cached by Perseverance. This has been planned to be carried out with use of a rover, but the success of Ingenuity has led to the idea – and now the development – of <a href="https://mars.nasa.gov/msr/spacecraft/sample-recovery-helicopters/">a helicopter</a> to do that. </p>
<p>The future that Ingenuity has opened up for us is exciting. We’ll see helicopters on Mars and Venus, more balloons on Venus, swimming vehicles under the icy moons of Jupiter and Saturn, and maybe even an aeroplane or two.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kevin Olsen in an employee of the University of Oxford and receives funding from the UK Space Agency in support of Mars science.</span></em></p>Among the missions being planned is a huge helicopter drone to explore Saturn’s moon Titan.Kevin Olsen, UKSA Mars Science Fellow, Department of Physics, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2206342024-01-09T17:03:11Z2024-01-09T17:03:11Z2023’s billion-dollar disasters list shattered the US record with 28 big weather and climate disasters amid Earth’s hottest year on record<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568310/original/file-20240108-17-d7axzq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=592%2C875%2C1145%2C839&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood water filled streets in downtown Montpelier, Vt., on July 11, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/person-walks-through-the-flooded-waters-of-main-street-on-news-photo/1524301769?adppopup=true">Kylie Cooper/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>National weather analysts released their 2023 <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events/US/1980-2023">billion-dollar disasters</a> list on Jan. 9, just as 2024 was getting <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?">off to a ferocious start</a>. A <a href="https://weather.com/storms/winter/video/midwest-to-see-three-rounds-of-snow">blizzard was sweeping across</a> across the Plains and Midwest, and the South and East faced flood risks from <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/eastern-us-snow-storm-01-09-24/index.html">extreme downpours</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. set an unwelcome record for weather and climate disasters in 2023, with <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">28 disasters</a> that exceeded more than US$1 billion in damage each. </p>
<p>While it wasn’t the most expensive year overall – the costliest years included multiple hurricane strikes – it had the highest number of billion-dollar storms, floods, droughts and fires of any year since counting began in 1980, with <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">six more than any other year</a>, accounting for inflation. </p>
<p><iframe id="FOf4d" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/FOf4d/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows where disasters that did more than $1 billion in damage hit the United States." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568442/original/file-20240109-27-h4qldd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">2023’s billion-dollar disasters. Click the image to expand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-struck-with-historic-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2023">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The year’s most expensive disaster started with an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151632/relentless-heat-in-the-southwest">unprecedented heat wave</a> that sat over Texas for weeks over the summer and then spread into the South and Midwest, helping fuel a destructive drought. The extreme heat and lack of rain dried up fields, forced ranchers to sell off livestock and restricted commerce on the Mississippi River, causing about <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/events">US$14.5 billion in damage</a>, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/faq">conservative estimates</a>.</p>
<p>Extreme dryness in Hawaii contributed to another multi-billion-dollar disaster as it fueled <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">devastating wildfires</a> that destroyed Lahaina, Hawaii, in August. </p>
<p>Other billion-dollar disasters included <a href="https://www.weather.gov/tae/HurricaneIdalia2023">Hurricane Idalia</a>, which hit Florida in August; floods in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">Northeast</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">California</a>; and nearly two dozen other severe storms across the country. States in a swath from Texas to Ohio were hit by multiple billion-dollar storms.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man with a bicycle walks through a scene of destruction after the fire in Lahaina." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C1920%2C1258&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568111/original/file-20240106-25-znwys7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wildfire left almost the entire city of Lahaina, Hawaii, in ashes in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/PicturesoftheWeek-Global-PhotoGallery/15a6864806e24d0cbb8b1037cfcf9931/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño</a> played a role in some of these disasters, but at the root of the world’s increasingly frequent extreme heat and weather is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">global warming</a>. The year 2023 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record">hottest on record globally</a> and the <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/national-climate-202312">fifth warmest in the U.S.</a></p>
<p>I am <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shuang-Ye-Wu">an atmospheric scientist</a> who studies the changing climate. Here’s a quick look at what global warming has to do with wildfires, storms and other weather and climate disasters.</p>
<h2>Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">act like a thermal blanket</a> that warms the planet. </p>
<p>These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-out-of-balance-heres-how-thats-warming-the-climate-165244">energy imbalance</a> at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN5-DnOHQmE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the greenhouse effect functions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as large parts of the country saw in 2023.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/nasa-data-shows-fierce-surface-temperatures-during-phoenix-heat-wave/">Phoenix</a> went 30 days with daily high temperatures at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/southwest-extreme-heat-wave-922e965ba3d3e42cbffc2ece12d5c114">110 F (43.3 C) or higher</a> and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).</p>
<p>Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">global warming has raised the baseline</a>, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalchange.gov/indicators/heat-waves">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That heat also fuels wildfires.</p>
<p>Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">creates favorable conditions for wildfires</a>. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze. </p>
<h2>How global warming fuels extreme storms</h2>
<p>As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">increase the amount of water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called <a href="https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2022/08/31/rain-energy-relationship/">latent heat</a>, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems. When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">stronger, longer-lasting storms</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two older adults look out a window over a yard turned to mud. The mudline on the house is almost up to the window sill, and the garage's doors have been torn off and are leaning down." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical Storm Hilary flooded several areas in Southern California, stranding people for days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-trapped-in-their-home-peer-out-a-window-while-news-photo/1614093982">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">critical level of around 80 F</a> (27 C).</p>
<p>With <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/">90% of the excess heat</a> from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">global sea surface temperature</a>, including record-breaking levels in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A chart of daily global average ocean temperatures since 1981 shows 2023 heat far above any other year starting in mid-March and staying there through the year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568113/original/file-20240106-15-yx8vjo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global ocean heat in 2023 was at its highest in over four decades of records.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">stronger hurricanes</a>, <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/mediacenter/news/2023/07/24keimhurricaneseason.rh.php">longer hurricane seasons</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">faster intensification</a> of tropical storms.</p>
<h2>Cold snaps have global warming connections, too</h2>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">contribute to cold snaps</a> in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">These patterns</a> are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.</p>
<p>As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/warming-polar-regions">more than twice as fast</a> as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.</p>
<p>In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.</p>
<p><em>This article, <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">originally published Dec. 19, 2023</a>, was updated Jan. 9, 2024, with NOAA’s disasters list.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220634/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An atmospheric scientist explains how rising temperatures are helping to fuel extreme storms, floods, droughts and devastating wildfires.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2189012024-01-03T13:43:07Z2024-01-03T13:43:07ZCoast redwood trees are enduring, adaptable marvels in a warming world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566348/original/file-20231218-29-3j3gwj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5000%2C3742&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Looking up toward redwoods' crowns in Redwood Regional Park, Oakland, Calif.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-up-the-trunks-of-large-redwood-trees-in-a-grove-at-news-photo/1368056629">Gado/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Coast redwoods – enormous, spectacular trees, some reaching nearly 400 feet, the tallest plants on the planet – thrive mostly in a narrow strip of land in the <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/coast-redwood.htm">Pacific Northwest of the United States</a>. Most of them grow from southern Oregon down into northern California, snugged up against the rugged Pacific coast. </p>
<p>They have grown by slowly responding to moisture and rich alluvial soil over millennia, combined with a genetic payload that pushes them to the upper limits of tree height. They are at risk – down to perhaps 70,000 individuals, falling from at least a half-million trees before humans arrived – but that’s not a new story, for we are all at risk. </p>
<p>Redwoods, like all trees, are engineered marvels. People don’t tend to think of natural things as “structures,” leaving that term to stand in for buildings, bridges and dams. But although trees were not built by humans, they didn’t just happen. They have come into their own through the inexorably turning wheels of natural selection and evolution, responding to environmental pressures, genetic drift and mutation. </p>
<p>They even have <a href="https://theconversation.com/redwood-trees-have-two-types-of-leaves-scientists-find-a-trait-that-could-help-them-survive-in-a-changing-climate-179812">two kinds of leaves</a> that help the trees adapt to both wet and dry conditions. They are born to change, just as humans are born to change.</p>
<p>Evolution is usually a very slow process, although sometimes it’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.15583">surprisingly quick</a>. New, intense pressures of a warming and changing climate are speeding things up. </p>
<p>I teach environmental humanities and history courses at Caltech and work as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gXSGq_4AAAAJ&hl=en">senior curator</a> at <a href="https://huntington.org">The Huntington</a> – a research institution in nearby San Marino. It includes one of the world’s most renowned botanical gardens, comprising more than 130 acres and visited by over a million people annually. </p>
<p>Researchers and horticulturists at the botanical gardens are thinking about trees, and how to integrate them into larger landscapes, in new ways. Our approach to climate change resilience, our increased reliance on technologies like geographic information systems, and our new engagements with local communities all continue to shape our attitudes about trees. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vsHrBTUHYJE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The nonprofit Archangel Tree Archive in Michigan is cloning iconic old-growth tree species, including redwoods and giant sequoias, to create a genetic archive and provide new trees for planting.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Redwood communities</h2>
<p>There are differences as well as similarities between human-made edifices and trees. A structure or building typically is a sort of island unto itself, separate from its neighbors; in contrast, the coast redwood is an ecosystem with enormously broad consequences for other life forms.</p>
<p>Life is folded in and among the redwoods, below and within and about them. The trees are integrators, bringing together many life forms. Some of these life forms rely on the tree; others on occupants in and around the tree. </p>
<p>The coast redwood hosts so many different ecological interactions that it’s faintly ridiculous. Consider <a href="https://californiaherps.com/salamanders/pages/a.vagrans.html"><em>Aneides vagrans</em>, the wandering salamander</a>, which usually spends its entire life high in the canopy, but sometimes must jump out to escape predators. Without wings or gliding, it falls for as long as two full minutes, only to land perfectly unharmed on the ground.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tbLFbyjVLYY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">High-speed video shows that ground-dwelling salamanders seem helpless during freefall in a vertical wind tunnel, while arboreal salamanders maneuver confidently. This suggests that the tree-dwellers have adapted to routine falls, and perhaps use falling as a way to quickly move around in tree canopies.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It took scientists dropping these creatures into a wind tunnel and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2022.04.033">filming them with high-speed cameras</a> to understand why they didn’t end up as a wet splat on the forest floor. As it turns out, the salamander’s body shape does the work, with a torso that’s just sufficiently flattened, and large feet with long toes, that create just enough drag and balance for a soft landing.</p>
<p>Redwoods are so large that one reportedly was found to house a <a href="https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/misc/ag_654/volume_1/picea/sitchensis.htm">Sitka spruce (<em>Picea sitchensis</em>)</a>, 8 feet tall, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2005/02/14/climbing-the-redwoods">growing far off the ground</a> within the larger tree. Redwoods also have served for millennia as nesting habitat for huge <a href="https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/California_Condor/overview#">California condors (<em>Gymnogyps californianus</em>)</a>, whose wingspan is nearly 10 feet. A big bird needs a big home. </p>
<p>There’s also a place for the tiny, living side by side with all of the largeness tucked in the complex, secret interstices of these trees. Nestled into extensive <a href="https://www.savetheredwoods.org/blog/fern-mats-create-entire-ecosystems-high-in-the-redwood-canopy/">mats of ferns</a> that grow high up in redwood canopies, researchers find <a href="https://www.savetheredwoods.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf_camann.pdf">aquatic crustaceans called copepods</a> that normally would live in larger bodies of water. No one knows how they got into the trees, but the fern mats trap enormous quantities of moisture from rain and fog, creating wetlands in the sky. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CHJCb4xjSHM/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Enduring but not static</h2>
<p>Even species as enduring as coast redwoods are <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/000/coast-redwoods-v-climate-change.htm">affected by climate change</a>. Diminished moisture stresses the trees, making them grow with less vigor. New fire dangers put them at risk, and more frequent floods erode the big trees’ footing. But redwoods also are adapting.</p>
<p>A 2018 survey of nine large redwood trees found a total of 137 species of lichen growing on the trees, including several that were new to science. One was <a href="https://doi.org/10.3897/mycokeys.30.22271"><em>Xylopsora canopeorum</em></a>, whose specific name celebrates the canopy where it was discovered. </p>
<p>This lichen seems to be unique to the warmer and drier forests in California’s Sonoma and Santa Cruz counties, in the southern part of coast redwoods’ range. This is an exciting finding, for it provides evidence that new forms of life – ecosystem partners – may be evolving in sync with trees that are also evolving in the face of climate change. </p>
<p>Scientists are finding more new organic redwood partners every year. Since these trees are so networked and interconnected, the sum is greater than its parts and isn’t easy to quantify. </p>
<p>As I write in my forthcoming book, “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Twelve-Trees/Daniel-Lewis/9781982164058">Twelve Trees: The Deep Roots of Our Future</a>,” there’s something congregational about the redwoods in their groves, like “a group of worshippers, petitioners standing solemnly, upright before an even higher power than themselves: the calculus of wind, rain, sun, oxygen, carbon dioxide, and time.” Experiencing them stimulates one’s senses with scent, sight and sound, along with a tincture of the most essential ingredient of all – memory. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566355/original/file-20231218-29-c631u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dirt trail runs past redwoods toward a fogged-in vista." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566355/original/file-20231218-29-c631u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566355/original/file-20231218-29-c631u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566355/original/file-20231218-29-c631u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566355/original/file-20231218-29-c631u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566355/original/file-20231218-29-c631u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566355/original/file-20231218-29-c631u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566355/original/file-20231218-29-c631u4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fog moves into the Purisima Creek Redwoods Open Space Preserve south of San Francisco. Redwoods obtain a large share of their water supply from fog.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/UbmKk4">Justin Dolske/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New territory</h2>
<p>A pair of redwoods grow just outside my office at the Huntington, which is some 700 miles south of the coast redwood’s usual range. I’ve resisted giving names to this duo, although many giant redwoods have monikers like Adventure, Brutus, Nugget, Paradox and Atlas – most named by the scientists who first quantified their extreme heights.</p>
<p>The redwoods outside my window are perhaps 100 feet tall – puny by comparison to their northern brethren. But they are healthy, and will continue to be shaped by their immediate environments. They’ve traveled far to get to here, planted more than a half-century ago by an earlier generation of horticulturalists, and they’re thriving in their new home. We should all be so lucky.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218901/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Lewis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Redwoods grow in networks that house unique communities of plants and animals high in the air. They offer life lessons about adapting over time.Daniel Lewis, Lecturer in History, California Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200192023-12-20T01:28:46Z2023-12-20T01:28:46ZWith ‘White Christmas,’ Irving Berlin and Bing Crosby helped make Christmas a holiday that all Americans could celebrate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566447/original/file-20231218-29-3t65vi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=451%2C37%2C5721%2C3895&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After Irving Berlin, left, penned 'White Christmas,' he pegged Bing Crosby as the ideal singer for what would become a holiday classic.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-composer-lyricist-and-songwriter-irving-berlin-and-news-photo/1296904202?adppopup=true">Irving Haberman/IH Images via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1989/09/23/obituaries/irving-berlin-nation-s-songwriter-dies.html">Irving Berlin</a> was a Jewish immigrant who loved America. As his 1938 song “<a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/ihas.200000007/">God Bless America</a>” suggests, he believed deeply in the nation’s potential for goodness, unity and global leadership. </p>
<p>In 1940, he wrote another quintessential American song, “<a href="https://achristmasclassic.org/">White Christmas</a>,” which the popular entertainer <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1977/10/15/archives/bing-crosby-73-dies-in-madrid-at-golf-course-bing-crosby-73-dies-at.html">Bing Crosby</a> eventually made famous.</p>
<p>But this was a profoundly sad time for humanity. World War II – what would become <a href="https://www.highpointnc.gov/2111/World-War-II">the deadliest war in human history</a> – had begun in Europe and Asia, just as Americans were starting to pick up the pieces from the Great Depression.</p>
<p>Today, it can seem like humanity is at another tipping point: <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-depolarise-deeply-divided-societies-podcast-193427">political polarization</a>, war in <a href="https://theconversation.com/west-banks-settler-violence-problem-is-a-second-sign-that-israels-policy-of-ignoring-palestinians-drive-for-a-homeland-isnt-a-long-term-solution-217177">the Middle East</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/russian-attempt-to-control-narrative-in-ukraine-employs-age-old-tactic-of-othering-the-enemy-206154">and Europe</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/2023s-extreme-storms-heat-and-wildfires-broke-records-a-scientist-explains-how-global-warming-fuels-climate-disasters-217500">a global climate crisis</a>. Yet like other historians, I’ve long thought that <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pGEB0QIAAAAJ&hl=en">the study of the past</a> can help point the way forward.</p>
<p>“White Christmas” has resonated for more than 80 years, and I think the reasons why are worth understanding.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Bing Crosby sings ‘White Christmas’ in the 1942 musical ‘Holiday Inn.’</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Yearning for unity</h2>
<p>Christmas in America had always reflected a mix of influences, from ancient Roman <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-christmas-tree-is-a-tradition-older-than-christmas-195636">celebrations of the winter solstice</a> to the Norse festival <a href="https://theconversation.com/yule-a-celebration-of-the-return-of-light-and-warmth-218779">known as Yule</a>. </p>
<p>Catholics in Europe had celebrated Christmas with public merriment since the Middle Ages, but Protestants often denounced the holiday as a vestige of paganism. These religious tensions <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-puritans-cracked-down-on-celebrating-christmas-151359">spilled over to the American colonies</a> and persisted after the Revolutionary War, when slavery divided the nation even further.</p>
<p>After the Civil War, many Americans pined for national traditions that could unify the country. Protestant opposition to Christmas celebrations had relaxed, so Congress finally <a href="https://time.com/4608452/christmas-america-national-holiday/">declared Christmas a federal holiday in 1870</a>. Millions of Americans soon adopted <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-christmas-tree-is-a-tradition-older-than-christmas-195636">the German tradition of decorating trees</a>. They also exchanged presents, sent cards and shared stories of Santa Claus, a figure whose image the cartoonist <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/civil-war-cartoonist-created-modern-image-santa-claus-union-propaganda-180971074/">Thomas Nast</a> perfected in the late 19th century.</p>
<p>The Christmases that Berlin and Crosby “used to know” were those of the 1910s and 1920s, when the season expanded to include <a href="https://madisonsquarepark.org/community/news/2021/04/holiday-tree/">the nation’s first public Christmas tree lighting ceremony</a> and <a href="https://www.history.com/news/the-first-macys-thanksgiving-day-parade">the appearance of Santa Claus</a> at the end of Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. </p>
<p>Despite these evolving secular influences, Christmas music and entertainment continued to emphasize Christianity. Churchgoers and carolers often sang “Silent Night” and “Joy to the World.”</p>
<h2>‘The best song anybody ever wrote’</h2>
<p>Berlin’s inspiration for the song came in 1937, <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/White-Christmas/Jody-Rosen/9780743218764">when he spent Christmas in Beverly Hills</a>. He was near the film studios where he worked but far from his wife, Ellin – a devout Catholic – and the New York City home in Manhattan where they had always celebrated the holiday with their three daughters. </p>
<p>Being apart from Ellin that Christmas was particularly difficult: Their infant son had died on Dec. 26, 1928. Irving knew his wife would have to make the annual visit to their son’s grave by herself.</p>
<p>By 1940, Berlin had come up with his lyrics. In his Manhattan office, he sat at his piano and asked his arranger to take down the notes.</p>
<p>“Not only is it the best song I ever wrote,” <a href="https://www.dacapopress.com/titles/laurence-bergreen/as-thousands-cheer/9780306806759/">he promised</a>, “it’s the best song anybody ever wrote.”</p>
<p>Berlin had connected his lonesome Christmas to the broader turmoil of the time, including the outbreak of World War II and fraught debates about America’s role in the world. </p>
<p>This new song reflected his response: a dream of better times and places. It evoked a small town of yesteryear in which horse-drawn sleighs crossed freshly fallen snow. It also imagined a future in which dark days would be “merry and bright” once again.</p>
<p>This was a new kind of Christmas carol. It did not mention the birth of Jesus, angels or wise men – and it was a song that all Americans, including Jewish immigrants, could embrace.</p>
<p>Berlin soon took “White Christmas” back to Hollywood. He wanted it to appear in his newest musical, one that would tell the story of a retired singer whose hotel offered rooms and entertainment, but only on American holidays. He titled the film “Holiday Inn” and pitched it to Paramount Pictures, with Crosby as the lead.</p>
<h2>Fighting for ‘the right to dream’</h2>
<p>Raised in Spokane, Washington, Crosby had launched his music career in the 1920s. A weekly radio show and a contract with Paramount led to stardom during the 1930s. </p>
<p>With his slim build and protruding ears, Crosby did not look the part of a leading man. But his easygoing demeanor and mellow voice made him immensely popular. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0034862/">Holiday Inn</a>” premiered in August 1942. Reviewers barely mentioned the song, but ordinary Americans couldn’t get enough of it. By December it was on every radio, in every jukebox and, as the Christian Science Monitor newspaper noted, in nearly “every home and heart” in the country.</p>
<p>The key reason was the nation’s entry into World War II.</p>
<p>“White Christmas” was not overtly patriotic, but it made Americans think about why they fought, sacrificed and endured separation from their loved ones. <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/White-Christmas/Jody-Rosen/9780743218764">As an editorial</a> in the Buffalo Courier-Express concluded, the song “provided a forcible reminder that we are fighting for the right to dream and for memories to dream about.”</p>
<p>This made it a song all Americans could embrace, including those not always treated like Americans.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Painting of Santa Clause wearing a stars-and-stripes hat as a young boy and girl sit on his lap." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566453/original/file-20231219-15-3zn321.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566453/original/file-20231219-15-3zn321.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566453/original/file-20231219-15-3zn321.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566453/original/file-20231219-15-3zn321.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566453/original/file-20231219-15-3zn321.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566453/original/file-20231219-15-3zn321.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566453/original/file-20231219-15-3zn321.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During World War II, aspects of the Christmas holiday – family, home, comfort and safety – took on greater meaning.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/retro-santa-claus-wearing-a-stars-and-stripes-tophat-with-a-news-photo/525363617?adppopup=true">GraphicaArtis/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Affirming faith in humanity</h2>
<p>Berlin and Crosby didn’t set out to change how Americans celebrate Christmas. But that’s what they ended up doing.</p>
<p>Their song’s universal appeal and phenomenal success launched a new era of holiday entertainment – traditions that helped Americanize the Christmas season.</p>
<p>Like “White Christmas,” popular songs such as “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas” (1943) tapped into a longing for being with friends and family. “Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer” (1949) and other new songs celebrated snow, sleigh rides and Santa Claus, not the birth of Jesus.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566381/original/file-20231218-25-udqob2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Red and blue cover for sheet music featuring photographs of two smiling young men and two smiling young women." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566381/original/file-20231218-25-udqob2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566381/original/file-20231218-25-udqob2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566381/original/file-20231218-25-udqob2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566381/original/file-20231218-25-udqob2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=799&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566381/original/file-20231218-25-udqob2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566381/original/file-20231218-25-udqob2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566381/original/file-20231218-25-udqob2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1004&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The sheet music for Irving Berlin’s ‘White Christmas.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sheet-music-for-irving-berlins-white-christmas-new-york-news-photo/455915107?adppopup=true">Robert R. McElroy/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>“White Christmas” <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Bing_Crosby_a_Pocketful_of_Dreams.html?id=2DRE2U_8WJIC">had already sold 5 million copies by 1947</a> when Crosby recorded “Merry Christmas,” the first Christmas album ever produced. On the album, “White Christmas” appeared alongside holiday classics such as “Jingle Bells” and “Santa Claus Is Coming to Town.”</p>
<p>Hollywood followed suit. In the popular 1946 film “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0038650/">It’s a Wonderful Life</a>,” for example, bonds of family and friendship proved their value just in time for Christmas. </p>
<p>Faith was affirmed, but it was a faith in humanity. </p>
<p>Over the coming decades, Christmas entertainment continued to reach new audiences.</p>
<p>The upbeat songs of Phil Spector’s 1963 album “A Christmas Gift for You,” for example, appealed to baby boomers. Producers also catered to younger audiences with television specials such as “A Charlie Brown Christmas” and “How the Grinch Stole Christmas.”</p>
<p>Hollywood then rediscovered Christmas during the 1980s, largely because of “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0085334/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_1_tt_7_nm_0_q_christmas%2520story">A Christmas Story</a>,” a film that didn’t exactly view Christmas through rose-colored glasses. While satirizing the chaos and angst of the holiday season, the film nonetheless embraced Christmas, warts and all. A steady stream of Christmas films followed – “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096061/">Scrooged</a>,” “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0099785/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_1_tt_7_nm_0_q_home%2520alone">Home Alone</a>,” “<a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0319343/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_1_tt_7_nm_0_q_elf">Elf</a>” – where themes of nostalgia, family and togetherness were ever-present.</p>
<p>Since the 1940s, the Christmas season has become even more inclusive. <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2013/12/23/christmas-also-celebrated-by-many-non-christians/">A 2013 Pew Research survey</a> found that 81% of non-Christians in the U.S. celebrate Christmas. Yes, the holiday has also <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/122132/the-battle-for-christmas-by-stephen-nissenbaum/">become more commercial</a>. But that, too, has made it all the more American.</p>
<p>Amid these changes, Irving Berlin’s song has been a holiday mainstay, reminding listeners of what makes them not just American, but human: the importance of home, a longing for togetherness and a shared hope for a better future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220019/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ray Rast does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The secular carol doesn’t mention Jesus, angels or wise men, while reminding listeners of what makes them not just American, but human.Ray Rast, Associate Professor of History, Gonzaga UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2175002023-12-19T13:16:33Z2023-12-19T13:16:33Z2023’s extreme storms, heat and wildfires broke records – a scientist explains how global warming fuels climate disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564609/original/file-20231209-21-y5rf6e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5772%2C3767&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme downpours filled downtown Montpelier, Vt., with water in July 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flooding-in-downtown-montpelier-vermont-on-tuesday-july-11-news-photo/1526471549">John Tully for The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The year 2023 was marked by extraordinary heat, wildfires and weather disasters. </p>
<p>In the U.S., an <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151632/relentless-heat-in-the-southwest">unprecedented heat wave</a> gripped much of Texas and the Southwest with highs well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 Celsius) for the entire month of July.</p>
<p>Historic rainfall in April <a href="https://theconversation.com/historic-flooding-in-fort-lauderdale-was-a-sign-of-things-to-come-a-look-at-who-is-most-at-risk-and-how-to-prepare-204101">flooded Fort Lauderdale, Florida</a>, with 25 inches of rain in 24 hours. A wave of severe storms in July sent water pouring into <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">cities across Vermont</a> and New York. Another powerful system in December swept up the Atlantic coast with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/18/east-coast-storm-winds-flooding-outages/">hurricane-like storm surge</a> and heavy rainfall. The West Coast started and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4_yCYlSnmo">ended the year</a> with flooding and mudslides from <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">atmospheric rivers</a>, and California was <a href="https://theconversation.com/tropical-storm-hilary-pounds-southern-california-with-heavy-rain-flash-flooding-211869">hit in August by a tropical storm</a> – an extremely rare event there.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">Wildfires ravaged Hawaii</a>, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/louisiana-wildfire-b9d8968c1ce98b009c3ce95fa08a8f40">Louisiana</a> and several other states. And Canada’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-wildfire-season-worst-ever-more-to-come-1.6934284">worst fire season</a> on record <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-americas-summer-of-wildfire-smoke-2023-was-only-the-beginning-210246">sent thick smoke</a> across large parts of North America.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in shorts in flipflops walks among burned out cars. Not much remains of the houses." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564611/original/file-20231209-29-1yjn62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A person walks through a scene of destruction after a wildfire left almost the entire city of Lahaina, Hawaii, in ashes in August 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXHawaiiFires/28d53ef953524ec8ba61a0c7ec830881/photo">AP Photo/Rick Bowmer</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Globally, 2023 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-warm-november-consolidates-2023-warmest-year">warmest year on record</a>, and it wreaked havoc around the world. <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño</a> played a role, but <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-how-climate-change-affects-extreme-weather-around-the-world/">global warming</a> is at the root of the world’s increasing extreme weather.</p>
<p>So, how exactly is global warming linked to fires, storms and other disasters? I am <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shuang-Ye-Wu">an atmospheric scientist</a> who studies the changing climate. Here’s what you need to know.</p>
<h2>Dangerous heat waves and devastating wildfires</h2>
<p>When greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide from vehicles and power plants, accumulate in the atmosphere, they <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/19/what-is-the-greenhouse-effect/">act like a thermal blanket</a> that warms the planet. </p>
<p>These gases let in high-energy solar radiation while absorbing outgoing low-energy radiation in the form of heat from the Earth. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/earths-energy-budget-is-out-of-balance-heres-how-thats-warming-the-climate-165244">energy imbalance</a> at the Earth’s surface gradually increases the surface temperature of the land and oceans.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/SN5-DnOHQmE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How the greenhouse effect functions.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The most direct consequence of this warming is more days with abnormally high temperatures, as many countries saw in 2023.</p>
<p>Extreme heat waves hit large areas of North America, Europe and China, breaking many local high temperature records. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/jpl/nasa-data-shows-fierce-surface-temperatures-during-phoenix-heat-wave/">Phoenix</a> went 30 days with daily high temperatures at <a href="https://apnews.com/article/southwest-extreme-heat-wave-922e965ba3d3e42cbffc2ece12d5c114">110 F (43.3 C) or higher</a> and recorded its highest minimum nighttime temperature, with temperatures on July 19 never falling below 97 F (36.1 C).</p>
<p>Although heat waves result from weather fluctuations, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/extreme-heat-in-north-america-europe-and-china-in-july-2023-made-much-more-likely-by-climate-change/">global warming has raised the baseline</a>, making heat waves more frequent, more intense and longer-lasting.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps and charts show extreme heat events increasing in many parts of the U.S., both in length of heat wave season and in number of heat waves per year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564634/original/file-20231209-21-2p0af.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The number of multi-day extreme heat events has been rising. U.S. Global Change Research Program.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.globalchange.gov/indicators/heat-waves">U.S. Global Change Research Program</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That heat also fuels wildfires.</p>
<p>Increased evaporation removes more moisture from the ground, drying out soil, grasses and other organic material, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">creates favorable conditions for wildfires</a>. All it takes is a lightning strike or spark from a power line to start a blaze. </p>
<p>Canada <a href="https://theconversation.com/arctic-report-card-2023-from-wildfires-to-melting-sea-ice-the-warmest-summer-on-record-had-cascading-impacts-across-the-arctic-218872">lost much of its snow cover</a> early in 2023, which allowed the ground to dry and vast fires to burn through the summer. The ground was also extremely dry in Maui in August when the city of <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">Lahaina, Hawaii, caught fire</a> during a windstorm and burned.</p>
<h2>How global warming fuels extreme storms</h2>
<p>As more heat is stored as energy in the atmosphere and oceans, it doesn’t just increase the temperature – it can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-downpours-trigger-flooding-around-the-world-scientists-take-a-closer-look-a-global-warmings-role-213724">increase the amount of water vapor</a> in the atmosphere. </p>
<p>When that water vapor condenses to liquid and falls as rain, it releases a large amount of energy. This is called <a href="https://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2022/08/31/rain-energy-relationship/">latent heat</a>, and it is the main fuel for all storm systems.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two older adults look out a window over a yard turned to mud. The mudline on the house is almost up to the window sill, and the garage's doors have been torn off and are leaning down." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564610/original/file-20231209-29-1llu44.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tropical Storm Hilary flooded several areas in Southern California, stranding people for days.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-trapped-in-their-home-peer-out-a-window-while-news-photo/1614093982">Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When temperatures are higher and the atmosphere has more moisture, that additional energy can fuel <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-intensifying-the-water-cycle-bringing-more-powerful-storms-and-flooding-heres-what-the-science-shows-187951">stronger, longer-lasting storms</a>. This is the main reason for 2023’s record-breaking storms. Nineteen of the 25 weather and climate disasters that caused <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/">over US$1 billion in damage</a> each through early December 2023 were severe storms, and two more were flooding that resulted from severe storms.</p>
<p>Tropical storms are similarly fueled by latent heat coming from warm ocean water. That is why they only form when the sea surface temperature reaches a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropical/tropical-cyclone-introduction">critical level of around 80 F</a> (27 C).</p>
<p>With <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/">90% of the excess heat</a> from global warming being absorbed by the ocean, there has been a significant increase in the <a href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">global sea surface temperature</a>, including record-breaking levels in 2023.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Line chart shows daily ocean temperature records for every year since 1981, 2023 was far beyond any other year starting in mid-May." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=346&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/564620/original/file-20231209-25-xqm7us.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Global ocean heat in 2023 went far beyond any other year in over four decades of records.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">ClimateReanalyzer.org, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Higher sea surface temperatures can lead to <a href="https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/">stronger hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://www.lsu.edu/mediacenter/news/2023/07/24keimhurricaneseason.rh.php">longer hurricane seasons</a>. They can also lead to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">faster intensification</a> of hurricanes.</p>
<p>Hurricane Otis, which hit Acapulco, Mexico, in October 2023, was a devastating example. It <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">exploded in strength</a>, rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a destructive Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. With little time to evacuate and <a href="https://theconversation.com/acapulco-was-built-to-withstand-earthquakes-but-not-hurricane-otis-destructive-winds-how-building-codes-failed-this-resort-city-217147">buildings not designed to withstand a storm that powerful</a>, more than 50 people died. The hurricane’s intensification was the <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">second-fastest ever recorded</a>, exceeded only by Hurricane Patricia in 2015.</p>
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<p>A recent study found that North Atlantic tropical cyclones’ <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42669-y">maximum intensification rates increased 28.7%</a> between the 1971-1990 average and the 2001-2020 average. The number of storms that spun up from a Category 1 storm or weaker to a major hurricane within 36 hours more than doubled.</p>
<p>The Mediterranean also experienced <a href="https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/individual.php?db_date=2023-09-13">a rare tropical-like cyclone</a> in September 2023 that offers a warning of the magnitude of the risks ahead – and a reminder that many communities are unprepared. Storm Daniel became one of the deadliest storms of its kind when it <a href="https://wmo.int/media/news/storm-daniel-leads-extreme-rain-and-floods-mediterranean-heavy-loss-of-life-libya">hit Libya</a>. Its heavy rainfall overwhelmed two dams, causing them to collapse, killing <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-fears-rain-clouds-and-climate-change">thousands of people</a>. The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/05/greece-flooding-daniel-climate-europe/">heat and increased moisture</a> over the Mediterranean made the storm possible.</p>
<h2>Cold snaps have global warming connections, too</h2>
<p>It might seem counterintuitive, but global warming can also <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">contribute to cold snaps</a> in the U.S. That’s because it alters the general circulation of Earth’s atmosphere.</p>
<p>The Earth’s atmosphere is constantly moving in large-scale circulation patterns in the forms of near-surface wind belts, such as the trade winds, and upper-level jet streams. <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-arctic-warming-can-trigger-extreme-cold-waves-like-the-texas-freeze-a-new-study-makes-the-connection-166550">These patterns</a> are caused by the temperature difference between the polar and equatorial regions.</p>
<p>As the Earth warms, the polar regions are heating up <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/learning-zone/climate-change-impacts/warming-polar-regions">more than twice as fast</a> as the equator. This can shift weather patterns, leading to extreme events in unexpected places. Anyone who has experienced a “polar vortex event” knows how it feels when the jet stream dips southward, bringing frigid Arctic air and winter storms, despite the generally warmer winters.</p>
<p>In sum, a warmer world is a more violent world, with the additional heat fueling increasingly more extreme weather events.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217500/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The US saw a record number of billion-dollar disasters in 2023, even when accounting for inflation. The number of long-running heat waves like the Southwest experienced is also rising.Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2129402023-12-11T10:16:12Z2023-12-11T10:16:12ZHow 1930s American scientists came to think about the impact of climate on wine<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553527/original/file-20231012-21-jbnzzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C29%2C4912%2C3228&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Depending on the region, rising temperatures can have negative or positive effects on wine quality. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Kohler/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Europe and beyond, the notion of <a href="https://www.brgm.fr/en/news/article/good-land-wine-how-geology-can-influence-quality-wine"><em>terroir</em></a> dominates ideas about the origins of the taste and quality of wine. While there’s intense debate over the term, generally it refers to the specific place where grapes are grown. The concept is largely focused on soil, but also includes the layout of the land and the elements to which it is regularly exposed – sun, rain, wind, seasons, and more. And although climate is seen as being part of the equation, the land upon which grapes are grown is its foundation. As such thinking took root over centuries, it was eventually codified into Europe’s <a href="https://www.inao.gouv.fr/Les-signes-officiels-de-la-qualite-et-de-l-origine-SIQO/Appellation-d-origine-protegee-controlee-AOP-AOC"><em>appellation d’origine contrôlée</em></a> (AOC) system, meaning “registered designation of origin”.</p>
<p>While European immigrants have long grown grapes and made wine around the world, the traditional regions were an ocean away, literally. So what could be done to improve wine quality in these new vineyards and wineries? The situation was particularly dire in the United States after the Prohibition forced many of its winemakers out of business.</p>
<h2>A world away</h2>
<p>After the Prohibition repealed in 1933, two scientists, Albert “Wink” Winkler and Maynard Amerine, launched an effort to revitalise California’s wine industry. Winkler was more of the viticulturalist and Amerine the oenologist, but both shared a passion for grapes, wine, and believed that the state could produce wines that rivalled the best of Europe. Their journey led them to collect vine samples from Fresno in the south to Ukiah in the north and westward to the coast. They planted many of these vines in test vineyards to see how they fared in different climatic regions, in order to advise growers on the best grapes for their plot of land. But vines were not the only bounty they sought.</p>
<p>Winkler and Amerine also collected grapes from willing viticulturalists turning them into a library of more than 500 site-specific wines over a decade. By 1943, they had observed enough seasonal variation in the hundreds of small batches of wines that Winkler and Amerine made and tasted every year to recommend specific grape varieties for specific regions. By expanding the vineyards where they collected grapes, they could both measure and taste the difference between vineyards in regions across California.</p>
<p>Winkler came to an epiphany from their sojourns in California’s vineyards and by analysing the wines these fields produce. The research let him to conclude that climate and regional differences were the most important factors in selecting varietals to produce high-quality wines. He came to this conclusion counter-intuitively.</p>
<p>By thinking about Europe and the idea of a “vintage” versus a “non-vintage” year, he realised the only thing that changed in the vineyard (not the vines, not soil type, not soil quality, not soil drainage) was the weather and, in particular, a vintage year was warmer in places like Bordeaux and Burgundy. He applied this same logic to California as he tasted the same grape in different regions and found some varieties like Zinfandel produced better wines in cooler climates in northern and coastal California while others like Alicante bouchés, which produced sweet wines, fared better in warmer, arguably hot, climates inland and in southern California. This observation had global impact.</p>
<h2>Knowing what to grow</h2>
<p>With Winkler’s development of a heat-based index, he and Amerine advised would-be California wine makers – from Gallo to Mondavi – not just on the varieties they should plant (or pull out) but also which ones would produce the best wines in their particular locations. The <a href="https://winedataresearcher.com/why-the-winkler-index-matters-to-the-wine-world/">Winker Index</a> rapidly transformed not just California vineyards but vineyards across the world as viticulturalists and oenologists paid more attention to the climate. In New World regions, it allowed them to choose varieties that produced wines best suited to the climate, thus improving the overall quality of wine.</p>
<p>But their research had an even deeper impact on varietal selection. Although the Winkler Index measured the temperature across the growing season, it was the taste and aroma of the wines in their wine library that was at the heart of their conclusions. In measuring the <a href="https://oeno-one.eu/article/view/7399">acid/sugar ratio</a> among other compounds in their wines, Amerine and Winkler judged how climate was reflected in the wines they swirled and sipped and how their wines changed over time, especially in years when the weather deviated from the norm.</p>
<p>These early observations on heat and its influence on wine quality allow historians, wine makers, and climate researchers to conclude that not only is the climate warming, but how a warming climate is changing the taste of wine based not just on acid/sugar ratios – though they are – but how hotter, sunnier growing season are increasing sugar in grapes, the alcohol in wine and reducing acidity, throwing wines out of balance. A vineyard that may have consistently produced high-quality wines from the 1930s through the 1990s now produced inconsistent wine.</p>
<p>The opposite can also be true: A region like Bordeaux, which was historically plagued by erratic weather, sometimes losing entire vintages to hail, frost or cold summers, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/climate-change-french-wine-taste-better">now had more consistent yields</a>, smoothing the difference between a vintage and a non-vintage year. Even inexpensive wines in Bordeaux benefited from warmer growing seasons because more grapes fully ripened.</p>
<p>Of course, as the climate warms, that impact has other negative consequences. Hotter weather reduces the acidity of wines making them flat, flabby, or turgid. An example of mitigating low acidity is Bordeaux’s experiment allowing new varieties to be blended into their iconic – and legislated – varieties of reds and whites to increase acidity and rebalance overripe wines.</p>
<h2>Where there’s fire there’s smoke</h2>
<p>An even more difficult and frightening consequence of a warming climate are wildfires. While fires do not always destroy vineyards (grapes are just spheres of water, after all), the smoke can contaminate wine made near wildfires, resulting in <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2113327118">smoke-tainted wine</a> – it tastes something like burnt rubber, cigarette ash or other unpleasant flavours. Once smoke has wafted into the vineyard and engulfed ripening grapes, it is impossible to remove. Worse, winemakers cannot tell if the wine will be smoke tainted by tasting the grapes themselves, as fermentation also affects how foul a wine will taste.</p>
<p>Though scientists around the world are trying to find a solution, they still do not understand exactly what makes a wine taste smoke tainted or how to mitigate it. It’s become a growing concern given the rising number of fires in wine-growing regions, including <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/11/us/california-wildfires-wineries/index.html">California</a> in 2020, <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20210824-provence-wine-producers-weigh-up-losses-after-deadly-wildfires-in-france-ros%C3%A9-french-riviera">France</a> in 2021, and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wildfire-leaves-sense-total-destruction-spanish-winemaker-says-2022-07-21/">Spain</a> in 2022. The same year two wildfires burned more than <a href="https://www.icare.univ-lille.fr/wildfires-in-southwest-france-july-2022/">20,000 hectares of forest</a> in France’s Bordeaux region. Tests indicated that that year’s harvest <a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20220831-bordeaux-wine-harvest-will-not-have-a-smoky-taste-after-summer-wildfires-winemakers-say">shouldn’t be affected</a>, but the coming years promise to be difficult for winemakers.</p>
<h2>Adapting to a changing world</h2>
<p>It is only because Winkler severed the link between wine and terroir that wine growers had the vision to plant and produce world-renowned wine made in places like <a href="https://visitcanberra.com.au/things-to-do/canberras-wine-region">Canberra</a>, Australia; <a href="https://www.winetourism.com/wine-region/mendoza/">Mendoza</a>, Argentina; <a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/regions-sussex">Sussex</a>, England; and <a href="https://www.wineningxia.com/">Ningxia</a>, China.</p>
<p>Given that climate change is already changing the weather in Europe’s wine-growing regions – the ones whose methods and very identity are most closely linked to traditional notions of <em>terroir</em> – research is also seeking to help wine makers adapt to a changing world. It’s a process that’s already taking place, not only in the <a href="https://www.terraview.co/gdd-and-winkler-index-update/">Winkler Index itself</a>, but even in the <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/france-changes-aoc-rules-allow-153919195.html">venerable AOC system</a>. <em>Plus ça change</em>…</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is the result of The Conversation’s collaboration with <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine">Horizon</a>, the EU research and innovation magazine. In February, the authors published an <a href="https://projects.research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu/en/horizon-magazine/wine-connoisseurs-face-testing-times-climate-change-alters-flavours">interview with the magazine</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriella Maria Petrick a reçu des financements de EU Horizon 2020 MSCA project number 896298. </span></em></p>While the notion of terroir has long been the foundation of European wine, research in the 1930s in the US began to reveal the link between climate and wine.Gabriella Maria Petrick, Research Fellow Ruhr University Bochum, University of StavangerLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169402023-11-29T16:28:13Z2023-11-29T16:28:13ZSkateboard at the Design Museum celebrates 60 years of style, culture and cool<p>Skateboards are not complicated design objects. They consist of little more than a simple deck, usually made of wood, which forms the riding surface. The board is completed by a pair of trucks (pivoted metal turning devices) and four polyurethane wheels.</p>
<p>With a few rare exceptions, none of this involves particularly advanced design, fabrication, materials, technology or aesthetics. So why has the Design Museum – London’s prestigious venue for the celebration of contemporary design – decided to mount <a href="https://designmuseum.org/exhibitions/skateboard?utm_source=paid%20&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign=Skateboard-Max&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAmZGrBhAnEiwAo9qHiRg-ghH95BfTqZqusqdfFfbPOMmxhrtCAGROZiZopaMz-iEasCTABRoCvhUQAvD_BwE">Skateboard</a>, a substantial exhibition devoted to this simple creation?</p>
<p><a href="https://www.redbull.com/gb-en/skateboarding-101-beginner-guide">Skateboarding</a> first emerged in the late 1950s in the US, particularly in California and Florida’s beachside cities. The early pioneers were surfers who used devised skateboards from roller-skates to emulate surfing on asphalt roads and pavements. In the 1970s, their successors enjoyed the benefits of polyurethane wheels and wider boards to explore drained swimming pools, reservoirs, ditches and even new purpose-built skateparks.</p>
<p>By the late 1970s skateboarding was a global phenomenon that represented gritty urban cool, and continued this way into the <a href="https://www.skatedeluxe.com/blog/en/wiki/skateboarding/obstacle-guide/halfpipe/">wooden half-pipe terrains</a> of the 1980s and the urban street settings of the 1990s onwards. With its burgeoning popularity, a distinctive subculture emerged involving fashion, street art, music and rebellious attitudes.</p>
<p>Since the 2010s, skateboarding has morphed again, enjoying <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-outlier-to-olympic-sport-how-skateboarding-made-it-to-the-tokyo-games-165152">Olympic participation</a> in the Tokyo 2020/21 games, extending its reach to more diverse riders in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, sexuality and disability. Japan, Brazil, UK and China have joined the US as big skateboarding countries, establishing it as an intrinsic part of urban life worldwide.</p>
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<h2>Evolution and revolution</h2>
<p>The very simplicity of the skateboard belies a more subtle development over the last 60 years than might first be appreciated, so the Design Museum’s chronological presentation of boards, from the late 1950s to the present day makes good sense. And it’s fascinating, too. The earliest homemade devices are astonishingly makeshift, including an example made by nailing a pair of roller skate wheels and trucks to a piece of wood.</p>
<p>The development of skateboards began with the short surfboard-inspired creations of the 1960s. The first “kicktails” (decks with an angled rear to improve leverage) and polyurethane wheels came along in the early 1970s. The late 1970s saw wider boards and trucks and later advances in the 1980s included double-kick decks with angled nose and rear, and smaller wheels and straight-sided boards in the 1990s.</p>
<p>Along the way, creative graphic designs revealing symbols, logos, cartoon figures, abstract patterns and graffiti were added to underside of decks. For older skate aficionados this is a kind of heaven – an opportunity to reminisce, linger and focus on nostalgic details. </p>
<p>For non-skateboarders, it is equally compelling, revealing the rapid change of skateboard styling and the cool culture that came with it. But it is also a chance to appreciate some of the nuanced design changes. Fibreglass, metal, plastic and wooden decks, the size and geometry of trucks, improved bearings for smoother turns, the introduction of grip-tape to add friction to the top of the deck, and the development of concave riding surfaces are all part of the story.</p>
<p>Some of the objects are well known, such as the Roller Derby from the 1960s (the <a href="https://myskatespots.com/event/roller-derby-skate-board-first-mass-produced-skateboard/">first mass-produced skateboard</a>), and the <a href="https://newtons-shred.co.uk/brands/vision-skateboards/">Vision “Mark Gonzales” model</a> from the 1980s, which was made in the hundreds of thousands. Others are much rarer, including a <a href="https://vintagesurfboardcollectoruk.blogspot.com/2009/12/1967-bilbo-skateboard.html">1960s Bilbo</a> – the first ever commercial UK board – and an experimental <a href="https://www.trendhunter.com/trends/project-rpsd">Jason Knight/Project RPSD deck</a> made from recycled plastic.</p>
<p>And while the exhibition is by no means comprehensive, the overall effect is to show how the skateboarding industry has been vibrant and innovative over the years, constantly evolving its products. For example, we see wheels move from the small “clay” compositions of the 1960s, to the larger 60-65mm diameter polyurethane examples of the 1970s, specifically designed for smooth skateparks. But then they went back again to much smaller wheels in the 1990s, which helped with street-based tricks and manoeuvres.</p>
<h2>A bigger story</h2>
<p>Just as football is more than the ball, skateboarding extends far beyond the skateboard itself. Curators <a href="https://www.jonathanolivares.com/viewmaster/73">Jonathan Olivares</a>, himself a skateboarder, and <a href="https://showstudio.com/contributors/tory_turk">Tory Turk</a> have also carefully interspersed displays with numerous magazines, photographs, books, safety gear, cameras, records, video games and other paraphernalia associated with the culture (including a few magazines and pamphlets from my own collection).</p>
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<p>This is not just a fetishist display for skate nerds but rather an exploration of objects which connect to much wider social and cultural phenomena. Many of the boards on display, for example, are scarred with the scrapes and bashes of heavy usage and a few are close to destruction, clearly indicating their active life outside of the museum.</p>
<p>The inclusion of things like Aga Wood’s “<a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.636111/full">Right to the City</a>/Ride in the City” board and her social enterprise <a href="https://www.everyoneonboards.com/">Everyone on Boards</a>, alongside women’s skateboard magazines and photographs of older skaters and trans skaters, signals how skateboarding has dramatically extended its political relevance, particularly in the last decade.</p>
<p>These exhibits indicate how skateboarding critiques urban space (including skaters’ right to access to it) and helps build social inclusion. Many of these items, such as the <a href="https://www.thrashermagazine.com/articles/in-da-store/ramp-plans-book/">Thrasher ramp-building guide</a> show how the skate scene is infused with a punkish DIY approach to creativity.</p>
<p>There is even a skateable ramp, designed by Olivares with <a href="https://www.betongpark.co.uk/about">Betongpark</a>, bringing real skateboarding into the museum, and animating it with a sense of informality and fun. Another key component is a film by Olivares with skateboarding chroniclers <a href="http://www.sixstairstudio.com/about.html">Six Stair</a>, providing an excellent history of the phenomenon.</p>
<p>As an exhibition Skateboard is not unique – this summer’s <a href="https://www.londoncallingskateboardinguk.com/">London Calling</a> and 2021’s <a href="https://www.somersethouse.org.uk/whats-on/no-comply">No Comply</a> similarly celebrated the culture of skateboarding. But the Design Museum’s offering is much larger and more ambitious in focus, providing a nuanced look at the complexity of skateboarding and its history, design and objects. Skateboards may be simple, but skateboarding is not.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iain Borden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The desire to transfer the thrills of surfing on to dry land created the monumental culture of skateboarding, now vividly documented in a new exhibition.Iain Borden, Professor of Architecture and Urban Culture, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2168472023-11-02T12:20:41Z2023-11-02T12:20:41ZThe wildfires that led to mass extinction: a warning from California’s Ice Age history – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557169/original/file-20231101-15-12hv68.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C62%2C2946%2C1931&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/french-fire-burns-sequoia-national-forest-2028796637">Ringo Chiu via Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In recent years, Californians have had to deal with some <a href="https://ktla.com/news/the-cities-where-wildfires-threaten-the-most-homes-in-california/">deadly and destructive wildfires</a>. But in fact, this part of the western United States has been shaped by fire for millennia. </p>
<p>In this episode of <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a></em> podcast, we hear about new research from California into a decades-old mystery: <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.34.011802.132415">the extinction of large animals</a> at the end of the Ice Age. It’s providing some worrying lessons from history about the way humans, fire and ecosystems interact. </p>
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<p>In a park in the middle of Los Angeles lies one of the most important fossil sites in the world – the La Brea Tar Pits. The park sits atop a natural oil reserve. Regular earthquakes in the area opened up fissures in the ground, bringing some of that oil to the surface where it sits in pools of tar, or asphalt.</p>
<p>“The asphalt is so sticky that if you were to walk in there, you would not be able to get out without help if you were to get both of your feet stuck. And so that’s what happened over the last part of the Ice Age,” explains Emily Lindsey, a paleoecologist and associate curator at La Brea Tar Pits who also works at the University of California, Los Angeles. </p>
<p>This was a period when large animals roamed the Earth – including, in the area of modern-day California, mammoths, giant ground sloths, sabre-tooth cats and dire wolves. Many of these animals got trapped in the tar pits at La Brea, where their bodies provide a unique fossil record of the animals that moved through the area during the Ice Age – until, that is, about 13,000 years ago, says Lindsey.</p>
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<p>What’s unique about the Ice Age is that at the very end of it, after more than 50 million years of having big animals in all global ecosystems, most of those animals went extinct – most of the big ones. And it happened very rapidly.</p>
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<p>The cause of this mass extinction has been debated by scientists for decades. In <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo3594">new research</a>, Lindsey and her colleagues decided to use the fossil records at La Brea, combined with sediment records from a nearby lake, to pinpoint exactly when the extinctions took place in California – and what else was happening at the time. </p>
<p>They found that in the 2,000 years leading up to the extinction event, the climate in southern California was warming rapidly, and drying out. </p>
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<p>And then 200 years before the extinction event, about 13,200 years ago, we see something very unusual happen. Everything catches on fire.</p>
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<p>Lindsey and her team argue that alongside the warming climate, it was humans – whose populations began to expand in this part of North America at around this time – who probably ignited these fires, which eventually led to the extinction of California’s big animals. The findings, she says, are “eerily similar” to what’s happening in the area today. </p>
<p>Listen to <a href="https://podfollow.com/the-conversation-weekly/view">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast for the full interview with Emily Lindsey, plus some insights on the current state of wildfires in North America from Stacy Morford, environment and climate editor at The Conversation in the US. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2901/California_Wildfires_Transcript.docx.pdf?1699551646">full transcript</a> of this episode is now available. </p>
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<p><em>This episode was written and produced by Katie Flood. Eloise Stevens does our sound design, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. Gemma Ware is the executive producer of the show.</em></p>
<p><em>Newsclips in this episode are from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlVFWcmzueo">CBS Evening News</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzpRxPJkZPs">NBC News</a>.</em></p>
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<p><em>Listen to <em>The Conversation Weekly</em> via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a> or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216847/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Lindsey receives funding from the National Science Foundation, which funded some of the research reported in this article. </span></em></p>A changing climate, humans and fire were a deadly combination for the big animals that used to roam southern California. Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast.Gemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2158642023-10-19T18:39:11Z2023-10-19T18:39:11ZHealth care workers gain 21% wage increase in pending agreement with Kaiser Permanente after historic strike<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/554397/original/file-20231017-19-xxi7c6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=89%2C99%2C3234%2C2019&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Striking Kaiser Permanente workers hold signs as they march on Oct. 6, 2023, in Vallejo, Calif. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/striking-kaiser-permanente-workers-hold-signs-as-they-march-news-photo/1720876420?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/13/business/kaiser-permanente-strike-deal-reached/index.html">reached a tentative agreement</a> with its employer on a new four-year contract on Oct. 13, 2023. They agreed following the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-thousands-of-kaiser-health-care-workers-on-strike-5-questions-answered-214926">largest documented strike of U.S. health care workers on record</a>, which involved more than 75,000 workers in several states and the District of Columbia. A majority of the <a href="https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/kaiser-permanente-unions-tentative-agreement-bargaining-sessions/696611/">unions’ 85,000 members will need to approve the deal</a> for it to become final. The <a href="https://go.seiu-uhw.org/l/45502/2023-10-13/9517nl">voting began on Oct. 18</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The contract’s terms will make Kaiser “able to deliver on our mission of providing high quality, affordable and accessible health care to our members,” <a href="https://calmatters.org/health/2023/10/kaiser-permanente-union-strikes-california-contract/">Kaiser Vice President and Chief of Human Resources Greg Holmes said</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZuwzOscAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Michael McQuarrie</a>, an Arizona State University sociologist who directs its Center for Work and Democracy, to explain what’s in the settlement and why it matters.</em> </p>
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<h2>What are the terms of the settlement?</h2>
<p>Kaiser workers will get a <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2023/10/13/1205788228/kaiser-permanente-strike-contract-deal-reached">21% raise over the life of the contract</a>, with a 6% salary increase in October 2023, and 5% in October 2024, 2025 and 2026.</p>
<p>The contract notably also includes a new hourly minimum wage for Kaiser workers in California, which will increase to US$25 by 2026. That pay level will be required of all California health care employers by that time, however, because <a href="https://calmatters.org/health/2023/10/california-minimum-wage-health-care-law/">California Gov. Gavin Newsom has signed a new law</a> to that effect.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://about.kaiserpermanente.org/who-we-are/labor-relations/new-agreement-with-the-coalition-of-kaiser-permanente-unions">other states, the contractual minimum hourly wage will be $23</a> once all of the raises called for in this new contract are phased in.</p>
<p>The contract also calls for some improvements to benefits, such as <a href="https://about.kaiserpermanente.org/who-we-are/labor-relations/new-agreement-with-the-coalition-of-kaiser-permanente-unions">larger performance-related bonuses</a>. The final settlement reportedly includes a <a href="https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/providers/largest-healthcare-worker-strike-us-history-scheduled-begin-wednesday-across-kaiser">guaranteed performance bonus of at least $1,500</a> if Kaiser meets financial benchmarks and patient health benchmarks.</p>
<p>Bonuses for working shifts that include hours after 5:30 p.m. would rise to $3.25 an hour, I’ve learned from workers involved in the negotiations. That means if this contract is ratified, these evening and night shifts would see an increase from <a href="https://www.seiu1199nw.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/KPWA-SWEA-2019-2023.pdf">$2 in the 2019-2023 contract</a>. Without that monetary incentive, workers usually try to get more desirable daytime shifts, increasing turnover and exacerbating staffing gaps at night.</p>
<p>The new contract would also leave in place restrictions on Kaiser’s ability to outsource or subcontract union jobs, which were <a href="https://www.unioncoalition.org/80000-workers-kaiser-permanente-reach-tentative-contract-settlement/">included in the prior contract</a> that Kaiser and the unions agreed upon in 2019.</p>
<p>And the coalition of unions has agreed to streamline the process for internal bidding on open positions to help Kaiser resolve staffing shortfalls. In addition, the contract includes provisions for training new health care workers that the union had sought. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The deal will set a minimum hourly wage of $25 in California, where many of Kaiser Permanente’s facilities are located, and $23 in other states.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Why did workers feel the strike was necessary, and did it achieve their aims?</h2>
<p>My contacts within the union told me that they had the impression that Kaiser had essentially withdrawn from negotiations in the weeks leading up to the strike – although its management team did return to the table at the eleventh hour before the strike began. The bargaining <a href="https://www.unioncoalition.org/2022-psp/">officially began in April 2023</a>.</p>
<p>The unions in the coalition had rejected the terms Kaiser was offering at that point, which included lower wages and plans to expand its reliance <a href="https://www.unioncoalition.org/2023-agreement-expires/">on subcontracted workers</a>. Kaiser also never responded to the coalition’s last economic proposal until the <a href="https://www.unioncoalition.org/2023-economic-proposal/">last-minute negotiations</a> that failed to avert a strike.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-thousands-of-kaiser-health-care-workers-on-strike-5-questions-answered-214926">strained relations between Kaiser’s managers and workers</a> to unprecedented levels. United Healthcare Workers West/SEIU, the coalition’s largest union, <a href="https://seiuuhw.wpenginepowered.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/2022-04_Report_Staffing-Survey-10.1_DIGITAL.pdf">surveyed its members in 2022</a> and found a heavily stressed workforce who felt that management was unresponsive to their concerns. <a href="https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/nursing-facility-staffing-shortages-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/">Numerous academic studies</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.jradnu.2022.02.007">support these findings</a>. </p>
<p>Kaiser has been seeking for months to <a href="https://about.kaiserpermanente.org/who-we-are/labor-relations/kaiser-permanente-hiring-10000-new-staff-members-for-coalition-jobs">hire 10,000 new workers by the end of 2023</a> to fill vacancies that have led to understaffing and put stress on its workforce.</p>
<p>That Kaiser’s engagement in talks with the unions increased after the strike suggests that the unions’ actions made a big difference. So does the fact that Kaiser ultimately agreed to terms that were closer to the unions’ original demands on wages, benefits and subcontracting once workers went on strike than it had previously said it would accept.</p>
<h2>How have workers responded to the proposed settlement?</h2>
<p>Union members have to vote in favor of ratification for this contract to go into effect. Leaders of the strike and workers who were involved in the negotiations have told me they’re optimistic that this will happen. Voting <a href="https://www.seiu-uhw.org/press/more-than-85000-kaiser-permanente-healthcare-workers-win-landmark-new-contract/">began on Oct. 18</a> and should <a href="https://go.seiu-uhw.org/l/45502/2023-10-13/9517nl">conclude by Nov. 3</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael McQuarrie works with and does research on unions and other organizations. The Center for Work and Democracy has received funding from United Healthcare Workers West/SEIU, which is part of the Coalition of Kaiser Permanente Unions.</span></em></p>Beyond higher wages and improved benefits, the terms of the Kaiser settlement would ensure better staffing, which the unions have argued is critical for providing quality patient care.Michael McQuarrie, Director of the Center for Work and Democracy, Arizona State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141302023-09-28T12:25:29Z2023-09-28T12:25:29ZAmerican Climate Corps: Biden’s new green jobs initiative delivers more promises than details<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550424/original/file-20230926-21-3v8jsp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=176%2C91%2C4183%2C2752&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">This AmeriCorps National Civilian Community Corps team did trail maintenance and construction work in Pennsylvania in 2017.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/americorps-national-civilian-community-corps-team-working-news-photo/1316208367?adppopup=true">Tim Leedy/MediaNews Group's Reading Eagle via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When President Joe Biden created <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/09/20/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-launches-american-climate-corps-to-train-young-people-in-clean-energy-conservation-and-climate-resilience-skills-create-good-paying-jobs-and-tackle-the-clima/">the American Climate Corps</a> by executive order on Sept. 20, 2023, it marked a step toward <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/27/executive-order-on-tackling-the-climate-crisis-at-home-and-abroad/">keeping a pledge he made nearly three years earlier</a>: to create a new workforce training and service program to deal with global warming.</p>
<p>The White House promises that the corps “will ensure more young people have access to the skills-based training necessary for good-paying careers in the clean energy and climate resilience economy.” By helping Americans get entry-level green jobs, such as <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-climate-corps-conservation-green-new-deal-d1ea0e218c8754b90f8446ad57aed689">solar panel installation</a> and <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/09/american-climate-corps-joe-biden-youth-workforce/">home insulation</a>, it will equip thousands more young Americans to tackle the complex challenges posed by climate change.</p>
<p>As a scholar who researches and teaches about the <a href="https://holycross.academia.edu/ChrisStaysniak">history of U.S. volunteer service programs</a>, I believe that the American Climate Corps will not provide anything radically new. Rather, it will largely offer the same experiences and work opportunities as an array of programs that already exist. But the Biden administration’s promise of connecting national service experience to long-term careers offers one important change to this model that I believe will make a difference to those who participate.</p>
<h2>New Deal echoes</h2>
<p>The inspiration for the American Climate Corps comes from President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/the-civilian-conservation-corps.htm">Civilian Conservation Corps</a>. That New Deal program put unemployed – and mainly white – young men to work on public lands across the country to counter the devastating unemployment of the Great Depression.</p>
<p>Known as the CCC, it was a massive undertaking. Approximately <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/civilian-conservation-corps/">3 million men </a> passed through its ranks over nine years. Those who served built much of the infrastructure of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/fdrs-forest-army-how-the-new-deal-helped-seed-the-modern-environmental-movement-85-years-ago-91617">country’s state and national parks</a>, planted over 2 billion trees, fought forest fires and responded to natural disasters like floods.</p>
<p>The Biden administration <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/05/11/993976948/reaching-back-to-the-new-deal-biden-proposes-a-civilian-climate-corps">aims to make its new corps far more inclusive</a> in terms of gender, race and ethnic diversity. Rather than alleviating a short-term employment crisis, like its Depression-era predecessor, the American Climate Corps will emphasize launching careers.</p>
<p>So far it’s unclear how big this program will be. The White House has declined to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/president-biden-uses-executive-power-to-create-a-new-deal-style-american-climate-corps">specify a budget</a> after repeatedly failing to persuade Congress to designate any funding for similar <a href="https://www.coons.senate.gov/news/press-releases/new-legislation-for-civilian-climate-corps-introduced-88-years-after-new-deal-era-ccc">multibillion-dollar green jobs</a> efforts <a href="https://grist.org/politics/republicans-polarization-civilian-climate-corps/">because of Republican opposition</a>.</p>
<p>Reportedly, the scaled-down American Climate Corps that Biden has bypassed Congress to establish could be funded through <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20092023/bide-creates-climate-corps/">money appropriated to other parts of the government</a>, such as the U.S. Agriculture Department, AmeriCorps and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.</p>
<p>The American Climate Corps, according to the details available, will mobilize far fewer participants than the CCC. The White House plans call for 20,000 people once it’s up and running, only 4% of the Civilian Conservation Corps’ peak <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/civilian-conservation-corps-evolution-ccc/">enrollment of 500,000 men</a> in 1935.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550425/original/file-20230926-25-igzl2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two politicians celebrate in front of the U.S. Capitol building with a sign saying 'civilian climate corps.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550425/original/file-20230926-25-igzl2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/550425/original/file-20230926-25-igzl2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550425/original/file-20230926-25-igzl2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550425/original/file-20230926-25-igzl2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550425/original/file-20230926-25-igzl2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550425/original/file-20230926-25-igzl2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/550425/original/file-20230926-25-igzl2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez celebrates with Sen. Ed Markey following the announced formation of the American Climate Corps.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rep-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-hugs-sen-ed-markey-as-they-news-photo/1692742783?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Network of similar programs already in place</h2>
<p>This new service program is hardly the first to draw on the CCC’s example. </p>
<p>There are about 150 similar conservation service programs in the U.S., all connected through the National Association of Service and Conservation Corps. Known as the Corps Network, this patchwork includes 150 programs that give young adults and veterans opportunities to engage in service work on public lands and in rural and urban communities.</p>
<p>One of the oldest programs in what’s known as the <a href="https://corpsnetwork.org">Corps Network</a> is the <a href="https://www.thesca.org/about/">Student Conservation Association</a>, founded in 1957. It puts thousands of high school and college-aged students to work on hiking trail improvement, tree planting and the restoration of natural acreage and waterways. Smaller programs like <a href="https://www.mobilizegreen.org/about-us">MobilizeGreen</a> and New York City’s <a href="https://greencityforce.org/service-corps/">Green City Force</a> focus on building a more inclusive green economy and training people for leadership skills or in tasks like building resilient urban food systems.</p>
<p>Many of these programs already get government funding through <a href="https://americorps.gov">AmeriCorps</a>, the federal agency for national service and volunteerism.</p>
<p>AmeriCorps also runs its own similar programs. The <a href="https://americorps.gov/serve/americorps/americorps-nccc">National Civilian Community Corps</a>, <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/features/national-service">established in 1993</a>, deploys teams of young adults to projects that encompass energy conservation, infrastructure improvement, disaster recovery and response, and urban and rural development. Its website promises that “if you are 18-26, you can gain experience while supporting climate change mitigation.”</p>
<p>Operating since 1985, this amalgam of service programs already <a href="https://corpsnetwork.org/about-us/">engages 20,000 young adults and veterans</a> every year – the same number the Biden administration aims to mobilize. It’s unclear how the American Climate Corps might augment, replace or complement these programs. For instance, the corps’ focus on job training tied to solar, wind and other forms of renewable energy is relatively new – although <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/09/20/five-states-just-joined-california-in-launching-their-own-climate-action-corps/">some states</a> have their own climate corps. Its emphasis on conserving land and water overlaps with the work existing state programs already do. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1704539933611016305"}"></div></p>
<h2>Scant objective evidence</h2>
<p>There are different ways to assess whether service programs make a difference.</p>
<p>Many of them survey their participants, who regularly <a href="https://www.thesca.org/about/impact-on-youth/">say they enjoyed the experience</a>. Participants also cite a sense of personal growth, greater familiarity with environmental concerns and stronger leadership skills. One of the few studies conducted also found that people who took part in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.7768/1948-5123.1248">conservation corps were more likely to pursue related careers</a>.</p>
<p>These programs <a href="https://conservationcorps.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/CCMI_2022_ImpactReport_forweb.pdf">try to measure the impact of their work</a> every year using metrics like hours served, miles of trails restored and acres of wetlands or forestry rehabilitated. But the data is largely self-reported and has never been rigorously or objectively collected and explored. </p>
<p>That means it’s hard to say whether funding these programs <a href="https://theconversation.com/buttigiegs-call-for-universal-public-service-would-mark-a-big-departure-from-historically-small-volunteer-programs-116124">amount to an effective policy</a>.</p>
<h2>Better pay? Great opportunities?</h2>
<p>Participants in the conservation corps programs that preceded Biden’s executive order get what amounts to <a href="https://time.com/5811820/americorps-member-benefits-limitations-national-service/">small stipends and perhaps room and board</a>. The low pay, which <a href="https://en.as.com/latest_news/what-are-americorps-what-do-they-do-and-how-do-communities-benefit-n/">ranges from about US$16,000-$30,000 a year</a>, can mean that they’re not an option for many recent college grads who might otherwise be interested.</p>
<p>Full-time <a href="https://americorps.gov/newsroom/press-release/americorps-expands-opportunities-students-increases-flexibility-education">AmeriCorps volunteers are also eligible to apply for grants</a> to pay for their education or to make student loan payments on top of their earnings. These awards provide $6,895 in the 2023 fiscal year.</p>
<p>American Climate Corps backers <a href="https://time.com/6315989/biden-american-climate-corps-green-jobs/">argue it should pay a living wage</a> as a form of “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/24/opinions/american-climate-corps-americorps-youth-smith/index.html">climate justice</a>.” </p>
<p>It’s unclear whether the American Climate Corps will do that.</p>
<p>That’s why it’s important that the Biden administration is promising pathways to a high-paid career. It has outlined future cooperation between Americorps, the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration and the departments of Labor, Interior, Agriculture and Energy to help build links between <a href="https://coloradosun.com/2023/09/21/american-climate-corps/">American Climate Corps service and federal employment</a>.</p>
<h2>Answers to operational questions TBD</h2>
<p>On top of the lack of clarity about its cost and funding and what participants will earn, it’s not clear to what extent the American Climate Corps will operate independently, or if it will support similar programs in the Corps Network.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.californiavolunteers.ca.gov/sign-up-to-be-a-california-climate-action-corps-fellow/">California</a>, <a href="https://www.mihealthyclimatecorps.org">Michigan</a>, <a href="http://volunteermaine.gov/serve-in-maine/climate-corps">Maine</a>, <a href="https://servewashington.wa.gov/serve-washington-launch-new-climate-corps-network-funding-opportunity-now-open">Washington</a> and <a href="https://servecolorado.colorado.gov/colorado-climate-corps">Colorado</a> already have their own climate corps. Five more states – Arizona, Utah, Minnesota, North Carolina and Maryland – unveiled their own when Biden signed the executive order for a national one.</p>
<p>Perhaps most importantly, it’s yet to be determined whether the American Climate Corps’ service work will differ from those state initiatives and similar programs. If not, this could simply be the rebranding of conservation programs as climate action.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214130/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Staysniak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar of national service programs points out that the government hasn’t spelled out what this one will cost, what its participants will earn or how it will operate.Christopher Staysniak, Lecturer of History, College of the Holy CrossLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2134552023-09-20T18:00:02Z2023-09-20T18:00:02ZWildfire risk is soaring for low-income, elderly and other vulnerable populations in California, Washington and Oregon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548882/original/file-20230918-25-4fjeir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3000%2C1976&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many of the people caught in the wildfire that swept through Paradise, Calif., in 2018 were older adults.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/nancy-clements-stands-in-front-of-her-home-that-survived-news-photo/1060370226?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As wildfires <a href="https://www.nifc.gov/fire-information/nfn">burn across the Western U.S.</a>, the people in harm’s way are increasingly those least able to protect their homes from fire risks, evacuate safely or recover after a fire.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh4615">new study</a>, we and a team of fellow <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tGGNDyUAAAAJ&hl=en">wildfire</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=S1J4kAoAAAAJ&hl=en">scientists</a> examined who lived within the perimeters of wildfires over the past two decades in Washington, Oregon and California – home to about 90% of Americans in the U.S. West exposed to wildfires over that period.</p>
<p>Overall, nearly half a million people in California, Oregon and Washington were exposed to wildfires at some point during the past 22 years. Alarmingly, about half the people exposed to wildfires in Washington and Oregon were considered socially vulnerable.</p>
<p>While the number of people exposed to fire rose overall, the number of socially vulnerable people exposed more than tripled between the first and second decades.</p>
<h2>How social vulnerability affects fire risk</h2>
<p>A variety of factors shape <a href="http://ece.uprm.edu/%7Epol/pdf/cutter1.pdf">social vulnerability</a>, including wealth, race, age, disability and fluency in the local language.</p>
<p>These factors can make it harder to take steps to protect homes from wildfire damage, evacuate safely and recover after a disaster. For example, low-income residents often can’t afford adequate insurance coverage that could help them rebuild their homes after a fire. And residents who don’t speak English may not hear about evacuation orders or know how to get assistance after a disaster.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A main points off camera as sprinklers run, leaving wet ground in front of a row of mobile homes. The neighborhood is up against thick pine forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548869/original/file-20230918-36057-7ybnl0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Residents at a mobile home community in South Lake Tahoe, Calif., set up sprinklers to try to defend their homes against the Caldor Fire in 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/1b8cc92909294173a05adb7e5602ffae?ext=true">AP Photo/Sam Metz</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Older adults face rising fire exposure</h2>
<p>We found that older adults in particular were disproportionately exposed to wildfires in all three states.</p>
<p>Physical difficulties and cognitive decline can hamper older adults’ ability to keep their properties clear of flammable materials, such as dry shrubs and grasses, and can slow their ability to evacuate in an emergency. The fire that destroyed the town of Paradise, California, in 2018 was a tragic example. Of the 85 victims, 68 were 65 years of age or older.</p>
<p>Poverty was another important factor in the exposure of people with high vulnerability to wildfires in Oregon and Washington. </p>
<p>The reasons that socially vulnerable people were increasingly exposed to wildfires varied by state.</p>
<p>In California, the rise was in large part due to socially vulnerable people moving into wildfire-affected areas, possibly in search of more affordable housing, among other factors.</p>
<p>In Oregon and Washington, however, wildfires have increasingly encroached on existing vulnerable communities over the past decade, mainly in rural areas. This is predominantly due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">increasing trends of intense, destructive fires</a>.</p>
<p>Nearly 17,000 people living within the perimeter of wildfires in Oregon and Washington over the past decade had high social vulnerability, based on <a href="https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/placeandhealth/svi/index.html">data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</a>. A smaller percentage of California’s exposed population from 2011-2021 was considered to have high social vulnerability, 11%, but that was still 26,100 people.</p>
<h2>Secondary impacts of wildfires</h2>
<p>Our definition of exposure to wildfire considered only those people who directly lived within a wildfire perimeter.</p>
<p>If you take into account secondary exposures – those living close to wildfire perimeters and likely experiencing evacuation, trauma and poor air quality – the number of people affected is many times larger.</p>
<p>Importantly, other hazards related to wildfires reach still more high-vulnerability communities. <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-americas-summer-of-wildfire-smoke-2023-was-only-the-beginning-210246">Wildfire smoke</a>, for example, has frequently filled large metropolitan areas with unhealthy air in recent years, disproportionately affecting people who work outdoors and other vulnerable populations.</p>
<h2>Policy changes that can help</h2>
<p>To prepare and respond as wildfire <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01163-z">risk rises in a warming world</a>, knowledge of the local population’s social vulnerabilities is necessary, along with targeted community-based strategies.</p>
<p>For example, the exposure of populations with limited English-language skills highlights the need for disaster warnings and response resources in multiple languages. </p>
<p>While the <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/fire/grants">federal government increased its investment</a> for reducing wildfire threats to at-risk communities, including tribes, funding availability does not currently meet the demand.</p>
<p>Increasing exposure of certain populations, such as those living in nursing homes, requires significant investment to plan for and ensure proper and timely responses. When a wildfire in August 2023 burned more than 200 homes <a href="https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2023/aug/28/we-lost-everything-we-owned-gray-fire-destroys-loc/">near Medical Lake, Washington</a>, southwest of Spokane, it <a href="https://www.dshs.wa.gov/ffa/gray-fire-emergency-updates-august-2023">came close to</a> a state-operated psychiatric hospital and a residential home for people with intellectual disabilities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hospital workers push patients in wheelchairs outside the hospital during the evacuation. A dog sits on one woman's lap." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549241/original/file-20230920-21-q6lyos.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feather River Hospital in Paradise, Calif., evacuated its patients ahead of the 2018 wildfire. The building was damaged by the fire and never reopened.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/hospital-workers-and-first-responders-evacuate-patients-news-photo/1059463210">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finally, including social vulnerability when studying future wildfire trends is important to shape community responses and policies. </p>
<p>Many national disaster prevention programs skew funding toward wealthier communities because they use cost-benefit analyses to direct <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/03/05/688786177/how-federal-disaster-money-favors-the-rich#">resources to areas with the greatest potential losses</a>. But while wealthy residents may lose more in dollar value, low-income residents typically lose a larger percentage of their assets and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1792">have a harder time recovering</a>. With the rising percentage of people with high social vulnerability at risk of wildfires, governments may need to rethink those methods and <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/how-fema-can-prioritize-equity-in-disaster-recovery-assistance/">lower the barriers for aid</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213455/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mojtaba Sadegh receives funding from the Joint Fire Science Program and National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Abatzoglou receives funding from the National Science Foundation, US Department of Food and Agriculture, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration and the Joint Fire Science Program. </span></em></p>Alarmingly, about half the people exposed to wildfires in Washington and Oregon were those least able to afford to protect their homes, evacuate safely and recover.Mojtaba Sadegh, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversityJohn Abatzoglou, Professor of Engineering, University of California, MercedLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1995882023-09-19T12:15:26Z2023-09-19T12:15:26Z3 powerful earthquakes strike Afghanistan in one week – here’s how people around the world prepare for disasters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553577/original/file-20231012-17-685tzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C34%2C5760%2C3768&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Survivors search through rubble on Oct. 7, 2023, in western Afghanistan, where a series of powerful earthquakes have killed thousands.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/search-operation-for-the-bodies-and-those-who-remained-news-photo/1715818309?adppopup=true">Anadolu Agency/via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Herat, in western Afghanistan, experienced a 6.3 magnititude earthquake on Oct. 11, 2023 – following <a href="https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-earthquake-herat-c0181a41ae82e68892f7ba8ff988a07b">two more earlier in the same week</a>. </p>
<p>The mountains of Afghanistan are especially prone to earthquakes, but the truth is that earthquakes, flooding and hurricanes can happen anywhere. Nowhere is the risk zero.</p>
<p>But humans can make good decisions to lower the odds of hazards turning into disasters. Technology can help determine where to make investments to save the most lives.</p>
<p>The terrible devastation caused by the three <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/rescuers-race-find-survivors-over-48-hours-after-morocco-quake-2023-09-11/">6.3 magnitude earthquakes</a> in Afghanistan is the result of the presence of centuries-old historic buildings and the continued use of <a href="https://news.northeastern.edu/2023/09/10/morocco-earthquake-construction/">old construction methods</a>, such as clay bricks and unreinforced masonry. These building materials are <a href="https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/14263">prevalent worldwide</a>, particularly in <a href="https://vividbay.com/concrete-vs-wood-developing-countries-use-concrete/">developing countries</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553110/original/file-20231010-17-j3bviw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In a remote, rural setting, a man searches through the debris of what was once a home." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553110/original/file-20231010-17-j3bviw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/553110/original/file-20231010-17-j3bviw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553110/original/file-20231010-17-j3bviw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553110/original/file-20231010-17-j3bviw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553110/original/file-20231010-17-j3bviw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553110/original/file-20231010-17-j3bviw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/553110/original/file-20231010-17-j3bviw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mountainous villages in Afghanistan were devastated by a series of strong earthquakes and aftershocks that began on Oct. 7, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Muhammad Balabuluki/AFP via Getty Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1rRpM1QAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Engineers like me</a> tend to focus on tangible decisions related to how buildings are constructed – for example, the amount and location of steel reinforcement. Over the last several decades, I’ve conducted the world’s largest <a href="http://doi.org/10.1061/%28ASCE%29ST.1943-541X.0000222">shake table tests</a>, placing a full-size apartment building on a platform that simulates seismic activity, and I’ve led teams of experts to investigate earthquakes around the world. But devastation – like <a href="https://miyamotointernational.com/2023-herat-afghanistan-earthquake-preliminary-shelter-and-housing-response/?utm_source=English+Global+List&utm_campaign=aa31d6c71e-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_11_26_05_59_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_544794d98f-aa31d6c71e-33641653&mc_cid=aa31d6c71e&mc_eid=576174da53">we are seeing in Afghanistan now</a> – continues. </p>
<p>Each disaster underlines the need to make our homes, offices and schools safer and more earthquake-resilient. But retrofitting buildings is expensive – and that cost represents a daunting challenge for developing nations like Afghanistan, <a href="https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2023/10/358192/historical-sites-in-earthquake-hit-areas-in-morocco-reopen-for-visitors">Morocco</a> and <a href="https://www.un.org/en/turkiye-syria-earthquake-response">Syria</a> – all three of which were devastated recently by major earthquakes. It is also challenging in developed nations like Turkey, Japan and the United States.</p>
<p>And yet, I am optimistic because I know thousands of engineers around the world are working and collaborating to make earthquakes less deadly.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547569/original/file-20230911-8366-vfgz9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A group of people walk by buildings devastated by the earthquake." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547569/original/file-20230911-8366-vfgz9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547569/original/file-20230911-8366-vfgz9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547569/original/file-20230911-8366-vfgz9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547569/original/file-20230911-8366-vfgz9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547569/original/file-20230911-8366-vfgz9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547569/original/file-20230911-8366-vfgz9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547569/original/file-20230911-8366-vfgz9x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morocco earthquake in early September 2023 damaged thousands of homes and buildings, including many of the country’s long-standing historical landmarks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/residents-pass-by-damaged-buildings-near-the-epicenter-at-news-photo/1659167845?adppopup=true">Wang Dongzhen/Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How earthquakes devastate buildings</h2>
<p>Before we can discuss how to make people safer in earthquakes, it helps to understand the forces at work during these destructive events.</p>
<p>The extent of the damage done by an earthquake is determined by several factors, including magnitude – or how much energy the earthquake releases from its fault; depth of <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-a-fault-and-what-are-different-types#:%7E:text=A%20fault%20is%20a%20fracture,millimeters%20to%20thousands%20of%20kilometers">the fault</a> and how far the building is from the epicenter of the quake. </p>
<p>An epicenter is the location on the surface of the Earth above the fault. Essentially, it is ground zero for the quake, where shaking is most intense and buildings are more likely to collapse.</p>
<p>If the columns and walls of a multi-story building are not stiff and strong enough to resist the forces of an earthquake, gravity takes over. The building usually collapses at the bottom floor level, causing the stories above to follow. Anyone inside can be trapped or crushed by falling debris. Stopping this requires significant investment, <a href="https://www.nist.gov/buildings-construction/understanding-building-codes">modern design codes</a> and code enforcement. There are always challenges – but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been some success stories.</p>
<h2>California plans ahead</h2>
<p>Consider the city of San Francisco. More than a decade ago, this densely populated Northern California city realized it had thousands of apartment buildings with parking at the ground level. These are known as “soft-story” buildings and are more prone to collapse because they lack <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/engineering/structural/soft-story-seismic-retrofitting.htm">the strength and stiffness of reinforcing</a> at the ground level. Many are likely to collapse in a moderate-to-major earthquake, while many more would require months to repair. </p>
<p>Through a self-study <a href="https://sfgov.org/sfc/sites/default/files/ESIP/FileCenter/Documents/9757-atc522.pdf">completed in 2010</a>, San Francisco recognized that even if nobody was killed or injured in an earthquake, damage to these multi-unit residential buildings would result in a significant number of people losing their homes and leaving the city, changing its character forever. In 2013, the city began <a href="https://sfgov.org/sfc/sites/default/files/ESIP/FileCenter/Documents/10118-Legislation_Final.pdf">a mandatory retrofit program</a>. So far, <a href="https://sfgov.org/sfc/esip/soft-story">more than 700 soft-story buildings</a> have been retrofitted. Federal <a href="https://www.californiaresidentialmitigationprogram.com/How-to-Pay-for-a-Seismic-Retrofit/Earthquake-Soft-Story">grants of up to US$13,000</a> that became available in early 2023 are expected to accelerate this progress.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ladbs.org/services/core-services/plan-check-permit/plan-check-permit-special-assistance/mandatory-retrofit-programs/soft-story-retrofit-program">Los Angeles</a> followed suit in 2015, passing a law that required retrofitting of both soft-story wood-framed and older concrete buildings prone to collapse. As of 2023, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-03-22/poll-large-majority-los-angeles-residents-back-earthquake-retrofit">69% of soft-story buildings in LA</a> had been retrofitted. Progress on the concrete structures has been slower but is moving ahead.</p>
<p>Retrofitting a multi-unit apartment buildings in California costs between $60,000 and $130,000 – but the investment for a typical single-family home in the U.S. <a href="https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/Blog/2020/Benefits-Seismic-Upgrades-Why-Retrofit-Your-Home">starts as low as $3,000</a>.</p>
<p>Communities outside the U.S. have also built back better after earthquakes.</p>
<p>In 2005, Kobe, Japan, was rocked by a major earthquake that resulted in more than 5,000 fatalities and $200 billion in damage. As the city rebuilt, officials took the opportunity to improve their building code using updated <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0958-9465(99)00042-6">strengthening and stiffening techniques</a>.</p>
<p>Christchurch, New Zealand, was devastated in 2011 by two earthquakes that destroyed much of the downtown area. While many buildings didn’t collapse – a sign that the building code worked to some degree – many were damaged beyond repair. Demolishing them presented an opportunity to <a href="https://www.atcouncil.org/docman/atc-15-16-papers/188-p4-01-macrae/file">focus on resilient construction</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547591/original/file-20230911-17-v1m7nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Amidst the rubble, a team of uniformed firefighters in hard hats search through the debris left by the quake." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547591/original/file-20230911-17-v1m7nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547591/original/file-20230911-17-v1m7nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547591/original/file-20230911-17-v1m7nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547591/original/file-20230911-17-v1m7nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547591/original/file-20230911-17-v1m7nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547591/original/file-20230911-17-v1m7nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547591/original/file-20230911-17-v1m7nf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In Amizmiz, Morocco, search-and-rescue teams look for survivors trapped beneath the rubble in September 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/firefighters-are-seen-digging-among-the-rubble-in-search-of-news-photo/1659521984?adppopup=true">Davide Bonaldo/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Focusing efforts</h2>
<p>So how can people and governments figure out where best to invest to decrease our exposure to natural hazards?</p>
<p>The center I co-direct brings together specialists from <a href="http://resilience.colostate.edu">14 universities</a> to determine how to measure a community’s resilience to natural hazards to enable them to plan for, absorb and recover rapidly from hazards. A <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2013/02/12/presidential-policy-directive-critical-infrastructure-security-and-resil">policy directive</a> during the Obama administration resulted in funds being focused on improving resilience throughout the U.S.</p>
<p>To improve resilience, we have to be able to quantify and measure it. To do this, we’ve developed a computer model called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcns.2023.07.004">IN-CORE</a> that communities can use to measure the short- and long-term effects of “what if” scenarios on their households, social institutions, physical infrastructure and local economy. Each interacting algorithm that makes up the model is based on scientifically rigorous research documented in the teams’ <a href="http://resilience.colostate.edu/publications.shtml">almost 200 peer-reviewed publications over the last eight years</a>. Our system allows stakeholders to make resilience-informed decisions and measure the impacts on vulnerable populations. For example, we know that it is vital that social institutions such as schools and hospitals <a href="https://www.asce.org/publications-and-news/civil-engineering-source/civil-engineering-magazine/issues/magazine-issue/article/2021/03/performance-based-seismic-design-succeeds-in-turkey">remain intact</a> after a disaster.</p>
<p>One example of utilizing IN-CORE is the center’s engagement with Salt Lake County, Utah. The county is planning for a major earthquake – an event that is inevitable <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/cfusion/external_grants/reports/G13AP00003.pdf">according to experts from the U.S. Geological Survey</a>. Understanding where investment will have its biggest impact is critical because time and money are limited. Our system will help Salt Lake County determine which building retrofits will provide the most return on investment based on physical services, social services and economic and population stability.</p>
<p>One goal of the <a href="https://www.in-core.org">IN-CORE Project</a> is to assist communities recently identified by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, as <a href="https://www.fema.gov/partnerships/community-disaster-resilience-zones">Community Disaster Resilience Zones</a>. These are areas in the U.S. most at risk from the effects of natural hazards and climate change. </p>
<p>More broadly, we plan to partner with communities and regions worldwide, always staying focused on ensuring socially equitable solutions. For example, as recent earthquakes in Morocco and Afghanistan show, it is important to consider not just urban centers, but rural communities that often <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/12/africa/morocco-earthquake-village-atlas-mountains/index.html">suffer a great deal of loss</a>.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated to include details from the Afghanistan earthquakes in October 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199588/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John van de Lindt receives funding from the National Institute of Standards and Technology to co-lead the development of IN-CORE mentioned in the article. </span></em></p>One way to prevent the destruction wrought by a devastating earthquake – like the one that hit Morocco in September 2023 – is to construct resilient homes and buildings.John van de Lindt, Professor of Civil Engineering, Colorado State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123232023-08-28T12:03:50Z2023-08-28T12:03:50ZShutting off power to reduce wildfire risk on windy days isn’t a simple decision – an energy expert explains the trade-offs electric utilities face<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544861/original/file-20230826-13578-tazxbk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C13%2C2964%2C1944&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Power lines spark a large number of U.S. wildfires.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CaliforniaWildfirePowerLines/9aba82d3b88e4d84909d4ff9abbd0fe2/photo">AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Maui County is <a href="https://npr.brightspotcdn.com/b3/da/139f2c7445d6b3e512b528b56252/6932642409.pdf">suing Hawaiian Electric</a>, <a href="https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12759">claiming the utility was negligent</a> for not shutting off power as strong winds hit the island in the hours before the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauis-deadly-wildfires-burn-through-lahaina-its-a-reminder-of-the-growing-risk-to-communities-that-once-seemed-safe-211317">city of Lahaina burned</a>. While the cause of the devastating Aug. 8, 2023, wildfire is still under investigation, forecasters had <a href="https://twitter.com/Maui_EMA/status/1688282225983598592">warned that powerful winds</a> were expected, and West Maui had exceptionally dry conditions that put it at high risk for wildfires.</em></p>
<p><em>In many cases, however, deciding to shut off power isn’t as simple is as it might sound. We asked <a href="https://ae.gatech.edu/directory/person/timothy-charles-lieuwen">Tim Lieuwen</a>, executive director of the <a href="https://research.gatech.edu/energy">Strategic Energy Institute</a> at Georgia Tech, about the risks and trade-offs utilities have to weigh in deciding how to respond during fire-risk conditions.</em></p>
<h2>Why are utilities so often suspected in fires?</h2>
<p>There are a lot of ways that utility lines, particularly high-voltage lines, can spark fires.</p>
<p>If tree branches are too close to the lines, electricity can arc between the line and the tree. Old equipment can set off sparks. If the weather gets really hot, power lines can sag and touch dry grass or trees. If there’s a lot of wind, that can push a power line into tree branches or damage equipment.</p>
<p>All of those can and have been fire-starters. </p>
<p>In California, a state audit found that electrical power caused <a href="https://www.auditor.ca.gov/pdfs/reports/2021-117.pdf">10% of all wildfires</a> and was responsible for nearly 20% of all acres burned from 2016 to 2020. Those were also some of the most destructive fires in state history – including the <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/our-impact/remembering-the-camp-fire">2018 fire</a> that destroyed the town of Paradise. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/16/879008760/pg-e-pleads-guilty-on-2018-california-camp-fire-our-equipment-started-that-fire">Pacific Gas & Electric pleaded guilty</a> to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter in that case and one felony count of unlawfully starting a fire.</p>
<h2>Do utilities have a responsibility for fire safety?</h2>
<p>That’s the question at the heart of litigation and debates.</p>
<p>Public utilities’ obligations can vary state to state. In general, regulated utilities have a duty to <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019-06/Fact_Sheet_California_Energy_Governing_Institutions.pdf">provide safe, affordable</a>, <a href="https://www.hawaiianelectric.com/documents/products_and_services/customer_renewable_programs/20210503_customer_energy_resources_for_hawaii.pdf">reliable power</a> to their customers. That can mean making tough choices.</p>
<p>Let’s say it’s really windy, dry and hot – ideal conditions for spreading a wildfire. The utility <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/wildfires">can shut off power</a>, but that means people don’t have air conditioning in what may be extreme heat. People with health issues – who might need oxygen, for example – might not be able to run essential medical devices. </p>
<p>Electricity is critical infrastructure and a foundational bedrock to many other services. Cellphone service can be lost <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/Why-cell-phones-failed-in-PG-E-outages-and-how-14806460.php">if transmission towers lack backup power</a>, so when power goes out in a disaster, people could lose access to crucial information. Water pumps used in wells and water treatment also need electricity. Many <a href="https://www.staradvertiser.com/2023/08/18/hawaii-news/maui-water-pumps-can-work-without-heco-power/">municipal water systems have backup generators</a> to keep water flowing, but small water systems might not.</p>
<p>Texas learned about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102106">cascading dependencies</a> during the <a href="https://theconversation.com/two-years-after-its-historic-deep-freeze-texas-is-increasingly-vulnerable-to-cold-snaps-and-there-are-more-solutions-than-just-building-power-plants-198494">deep freeze in February 2021</a>. When power systems failed, the pumps used to send gas and oil through pipelines went out. That meant power plants weren’t getting the gas they needed to operate.</p>
<p>Utilities have to balance the risk of keeping power on with the risks created by shutting power off.</p>
<h2>What can utilities do to manage fire risk?</h2>
<p>Utilities can make sure they’re careful about trimming trees, cutting grasses and removing other dry fuel that can ignite near power lines.</p>
<p>In really high-risk areas, <a href="https://www.pge.com/en_US/residential/customer-service/other-services/electric-undergrounding-program/electric-undergrounding-program.page">they can move their lines underground</a>. There’s <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/about-cpuc/divisions/safety-policy-division/risk-assessment-and-safety-analytics/electric-undergrounding-sb-884">an effort to do that in California</a>, but estimates show it would be <a href="https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-and-topics/electrical-energy/infrastructure/electric-reliability/undergrounding-program-description">prohibitively expensive</a> to take all <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01306-8">high-voltage lines underground</a>.</p>
<p>To give you a sense of the amount of line we’re talking about, in 2021, California utilities reported having <a href="https://www.auditor.ca.gov/pdfs/reports/2021-117.pdf">nearly 40,000 miles</a> of bare power lines in areas at high risk of wildfires.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Powerlines along a rugged mountainside with a lake and forest in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544858/original/file-20230826-28-hbu0ud.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-voltage power lines, like this one in North Cascades National Park in Washington state, often cross rugged terrain in areas in which it isn’t easy to bury a power line, or for firefighters to reach.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/diablo-lake-trail-north-cascades-national-park-royalty-free-image/1546932853">Philippe Gerber/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Utilities are constantly actively looking for fire risks, whether it’s replacing old transformers or upgrading lines that might be overloaded or clearing away foliage.</p>
<p>Technology also helps identify risks. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hawaii-wildfires-maui-electricity-power-utilities-c46a106db3c5019ac835ddcb01fde25f">Sensors can detect sparks</a> on a power line. Newer tools being tested aim to <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/business/technology/2019/12/03/texas-am-professors-tech-aims-to-detect-potential-for-wildfires-before-they-happen/">detect variations in electrical current</a> that could indicate overloaded lines before sparks occur. On hot days, being better able to manage the distribution of power flow of electricity through power lines that are overloaded and potentially overheating could also help avoid problems along power lines.</p>
<p>Another solution is making architectural changes to the electricity grid, where rather than relying on large centralized power stations with high power, long distance transmission lines, power is produced closer to the consumer, ranging from community, to neighborhood, to one’s own home.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-rooftop-potential">rooftop solar</a> and <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/community-solar-basics">community solar projects</a> can help reduce the need to add more high-voltage transmissions lines to carry power long distances and through high-risk wildlands. The architecture of the grid is rapidly evolving as both rooftop and community solar appear.</p>
<h2>How do utilities balance the risks?</h2>
<p>It’s easy to oversimplify this. Every solution, every choice, has an impact. You can shut off power during windstorms and largely eliminate the fire risk from power infrastructure. But it also has real consequences for people’s businesses, livelihoods and potentially their health and safety.</p>
<p>As an engineer, I can advise on the risks and develop solutions to minimize those risk through better detection, better equipment and by minimizing the need for lots of electrical lines. However, how to balance those risks and, in particular, address the issue of when a utility should shut off the power, is ultimately a societal choice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim C. Lieuwen serves on the Advisory Council of EPRI, as well as governing or advisory boards of Oak Ridge National Lab, Pacific Northwest National Lab, and National Renewable Energy Lab</span></em></p>Losing power also has real consequences for people’s businesses, livelihoods and potentially their health and safety.Tim C. Lieuwen, Executive Director of the Strategic Energy Institute, Georgia Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2086522023-08-22T12:26:33Z2023-08-22T12:26:33ZLiving with wildfire: How to protect more homes as fire risk rises in a warming climate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540799/original/file-20230802-27-bb4tna.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4288%2C2837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Homeowners and local governments can take steps to help protect homes from fires.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/APTOPIXUSWildfires/db3162a1c93d49e7984c38f7fb7915bb/photo">AP Photo/Keith D. Cullom</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Humans have learned to fear wildfire. It can <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-maui-fires-human-health-risks-linger-in-the-air-water-and-even-surviving-buildings-211404">destroy communities</a>, torch pristine forests and <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-can-harm-human-health-even-when-the-fire-is-burning-hundreds-of-miles-away-a-toxicologist-explains-why-206057">choke even faraway cities</a> with toxic smoke.</p>
<p>Wildfire is scary for good reason, and over a century of fire suppression efforts has conditioned people to expect wildland firefighters to snuff it out. But as journalist Nick Mott and I explore our new book, “<a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/this-is-wildfire-9781639730797/">This Is Wildfire: How to Protect Your Home, Yourself, and Your Community in the Age of Heat</a>,” and in <a href="https://www.firelinepodcast.org/">our podcast “Fireline</a>,” this expectation and the approach to wildfire will have to change.</p>
<p>Over time, extensive fire suppression has set the stage for the increasingly destructive wildfires we see today.</p>
<h2>The problem with fighting every fire</h2>
<p>The way the U.S. deals with wildfires today dates back to around 1910, when <a href="https://theconversation.com/big-fires-demand-a-big-response-how-1910s-big-burn-can-help-us-think-smarter-about-fighting-wildfires-and-living-with-fire-167317">the Great Burn</a> torched some 3 million acres across Washington, Idaho, Montana and British Columbia. After watching the fire’s swift and unstoppable spread, the fledgling Forest Service developed a military-style apparatus built <a href="https://foresthistory.org/research-explore/us-forest-service-history/policy-and-law/fire-u-s-forest-service/u-s-forest-service-fire-suppression/">to eradicate wildfire</a>.</p>
<p>The U.S. got really good at putting out fires. So good that citizens grew to accept fire suppression as something the government simply does.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black and white photo shows a man standing on a mountaintop rock looking through binoculars, with mountains in the background. Another sits on the rock beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539168/original/file-20230725-19-dvfcwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539168/original/file-20230725-19-dvfcwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539168/original/file-20230725-19-dvfcwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539168/original/file-20230725-19-dvfcwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539168/original/file-20230725-19-dvfcwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539168/original/file-20230725-19-dvfcwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539168/original/file-20230725-19-dvfcwg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=614&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A ranger and forest guard on fire patrol duty near Thompson Falls, Mont., in 1909.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/usforestservice/39390975804/in/album-72157669003030369/">Forest Service photo by W.J. Lubken</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Today, state, federal and private firefighters deploy across the country when fires break out, along with tankers, bulldozers, helicopters and planes. The Forest Service touts a record of <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/detailfull/r5/home/?cid=FSEPRD1064021">snuffing out 98% of wildfires</a> before they reach 100 acres (40 hectares). </p>
<p>As a result, many forest ecosystems that would have periodically burned have <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-years-of-fighting-every-wildfire-helped-fuel-the-western-megafires-of-today-163165">become clogged with underbrush</a>, new growth and woody debris that can easily ignite. Efforts by the Forest Service to adopt a more selective policy <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-08-04/forest-service-modifies-let-it-burn-policy">have run into opposition from Western politicians</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, people have built more <a href="https://theconversation.com/human-exposure-to-wildfires-has-more-than-doubled-in-two-decades-who-is-at-risk-might-surprise-you-207903">homes and cities in fire-prone areas</a>. And the greenhouse gases released by decades of increasingly burning fossil fuels have caused global temperatures to rise.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539083/original/file-20230724-14742-2m8lk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of the wildland urban interface, showing homes in the mountain foothills next to a city in a valley." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539083/original/file-20230724-14742-2m8lk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539083/original/file-20230724-14742-2m8lk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539083/original/file-20230724-14742-2m8lk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539083/original/file-20230724-14742-2m8lk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539083/original/file-20230724-14742-2m8lk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539083/original/file-20230724-14742-2m8lk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539083/original/file-20230724-14742-2m8lk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The wildland-urban interface starts on the edges of cities where homes are built closer to forests and grasslands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Jessy Stevenson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate change and wildfires</h2>
<p>The relationship between climate and wildfire is fairly simple: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15388">Higher temperatures lead to more fire</a>. Higher temperatures increase moisture evaporation, drying out plants and soil and making them more likely to burn. When hot, dry winds are blowing, a spark in an already dry area can quickly blow up into dangerous wildfire.</p>
<p>Given the rise in global temperatures that the world has already experienced, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1112839109">much of the Western U.S. is actually in a fire deficit</a> because of the practice of suppressing most fires. That means that, based on historical data, we should expect far more fire than we’re actually seeing.</p>
<p>Fortunately, there are things everyone can do to break this cycle.</p>
<p><iframe id="ug43S" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ug43S/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What fire managers can do</h2>
<p>First, everyone can accept that firefighters can’t and shouldn’t put out every low-risk wildfire.</p>
<p>Remote fires that pose little threat to communities and property can <a href="https://www.blm.gov/or/resources/recreation/tablerock/files/fire_ecol_intro.pdf">breathe life into ecosystems</a>. Low-level fires that clear out undergrowth but don’t kill the trees create space for trees, plants and wildlife species to thrive, and they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-022-01475-4">return nutrients to the soil</a>. Some tree and plant species <a href="https://www.nps.gov/articles/wildland-fire-in-douglas-fir.htm">depend on fires</a> to open their seeds to reproduce.</p>
<p>Natural fires can also help avoid catastrophic fires that occur when too much underbrush has built up for fuel. And they create fuel breaks on the landscape that could halt the advance of future flames.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A firefighter walks beside a line of low-level flames in a forest. The tree canopies aren't burning, only the ground-level vegetation is." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539085/original/file-20230724-19-eoxi7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539085/original/file-20230724-19-eoxi7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539085/original/file-20230724-19-eoxi7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539085/original/file-20230724-19-eoxi7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539085/original/file-20230724-19-eoxi7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539085/original/file-20230724-19-eoxi7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539085/original/file-20230724-19-eoxi7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Controlled burns are used to clear out undergrowth that can fuel catastrophic blazes under dry, windy conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:USFWS_Resilient_Landscapes_(17223539378).jpg">U.S. Forest Service</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Fire managers have <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/rmrs/projects/pods">advanced mapping technology</a> that can help them decide when and where forests can burn safely. <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/Rx-Fire-Strategy.pdf">Thoughtful prescribed burning</a> – meaning low-intensity fires intentionally set by professionals – can offer many of the same benefits as the flames that historically burned in forests and grasslands.</p>
<p>The Forest Service is aiming to <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2023-06/Rx-Fire-Strategy.pdf">ramp up its prescribed burning</a> on more acres in more areas across the country. However, the agency struggles to train adequate staff and pay for the projects, and environmental reviews sometimes cause yearslong delays. <a href="https://www.landscapepartnership.org/key-issues/wildland-fire/prescribed-burning/prescribed-burn-associations">Other groups</a> offer beacons of hope. Indigenous groups across the country, for example, are <a href="https://www.nps.gov/subjects/fire/indigenous-fire-practices-shape-our-land.htm">returning fire to the landscape</a>.</p>
<h2>Adapting homes to fire risk</h2>
<p>For decades, scientists have understood the relationship between wildfire and community destruction. However, little has been done to live safely with fire on the ground. More than one-third of U.S. homes are in what’s known as the <a href="https://www.usfa.fema.gov/wui/">wildland-urban interface</a> – the zone where houses and other structures intermingle with flammable vegetation.</p>
<p>The biggest risk to homes comes from <a href="https://theconversation.com/firebrands-how-to-protect-your-home-from-wildfires-windblown-flaming-debris-166552">burning embers blowing on the wind</a> and landing in weak spots that can set a house ablaze. Those embers can travel over a miles to nestle in dry leaves or pine needles clogging a gutter, <a href="https://codes.iccsafe.org/s/FRC2017/chapter-3-building-planning/FRC2017-Pt03-Ch03-SecR322.3.3">a wood-shingle roof</a> or shrubs, trees and other flammable vegetation close to a structure.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539079/original/file-20230724-12172-g259ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An illustration of a house with trees certain distances and advice on how to keep the home safe from fires." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539079/original/file-20230724-12172-g259ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539079/original/file-20230724-12172-g259ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539079/original/file-20230724-12172-g259ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539079/original/file-20230724-12172-g259ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539079/original/file-20230724-12172-g259ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539079/original/file-20230724-12172-g259ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539079/original/file-20230724-12172-g259ai.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Owning a home in the wildland-urban interface means paying attention to fire risks. Risks are highlighted on the left and solutions on the right.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Jessy Stevenson</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some of these vulnerabilities are easy to fix. Cleaning a home’s gutters or trimming back too-close vegetation requires little effort and tools already around the house.</p>
<p>Grant programs exist to <a href="https://news.caloes.ca.gov/california-sets-framework-for-wildfire-home-hardening-program/">help harden homes</a> against wildfire. But enormous investment is needed to get the work done at the scale the fire risk requires. For example, nearly 1 million U.S. homes in wildfire-prone areas have highly combustible wooden roofs. Retrofitting those roofs will cost an <a href="https://headwaterseconomics.org/natural-hazards/wood-roofs-wildfire/">estimated US$6 billion</a>, but that investment could both saves lives and property and reduce wildfire management costs in the future. </p>
<p>Homeowners can look to resources like Firewise USA to learn about the “<a href="https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/Fire-causes-and-risks/Wildfire/Firewise-USA">home ignition zone</a>.” It describes the types of vegetation and other flammable objects that become high risks at different distances from a structure and steps to make properties more fire resilient.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M9sel3wcBLg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The fire chief for Spokane, Wash., explains ways to protect your property from wildfires.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, homes should not have flammable plants, firewood, dried leaves or needles, or anything burnable, on or under decks and porches <a href="https://www.nfpa.org/Public-Education/Fire-causes-and-risks/Wildfire/Preparing-homes-for-wildfire">within 5 feet (1.5 meters) of the house</a>. Between 5 and 30 feet (9 meters), grasses should be mowed short, tree branches should be pruned to at least 6 feet (2 meters) from the ground, and the tree canopy should be at least 10 feet (3 meters) from the structure.</p>
<h2>What communities can do</h2>
<p>Many counties and cities have their own wildfire programs to educate homeowners and connect them with resources. Some have started “<a href="https://www.kgw.com/article/life/santiam-canyon-tool-library-hopes-to-help-people-rebuild-after-fire/283-6852d11b-97c7-4281-a97e-bf893b77c0fc">tool libraries</a>” to help anyone begin the necessary work on their property.</p>
<p>Beyond individual actions, states and communities can <a href="https://cpaw.headwaterseconomics.org/apps/firetopia/">enact forward-looking wildfire resilience policies</a>. </p>
<p>These can include developing zoning rules and regulations that require developers to build with fire-resistant materials and designs or might even prohibit building in areas where the risk is too high. The <a href="https://codes.iccsafe.org/content/IWUIC2021P1">International Wildland-Urban Interface Code</a>, which provides guidance for safeguarding homes and communities from wildfire, has been adopted in jurisdictions in at least 24 states.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man carries a chain saw through an overgrown area with trees behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539171/original/file-20230725-17-5050k1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539171/original/file-20230725-17-5050k1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539171/original/file-20230725-17-5050k1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539171/original/file-20230725-17-5050k1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539171/original/file-20230725-17-5050k1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539171/original/file-20230725-17-5050k1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539171/original/file-20230725-17-5050k1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protecting homes from wildfires includes maintaining a safe perimeter clear of potential fuel for a fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ignacio-vasquez-with-bobs-firesafe-team-clears-brush-to-news-photo/1326159733?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Living in a world with wildfire</h2>
<p>Prevention and suppression will always be critical pieces of wildfire strategy, but adapting to our fiery future means everyone has a role.</p>
<p>Educate yourself on proposed forest projects in your area. Understand and address risks to your home and community. Help your neighbors. Advocate for better wildfire planning, policy and resources.</p>
<p>Living in a world where more wildfire is inevitable requires that everyone see themselves as part of solving the problem. Wildfire can be terrifying, but also natural and essential. Embracing both isn’t always easy, but I believe it is the only way forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208652/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Angle is under contract with Bloomsbury to publish the forthcoming "This is Wildfire: How to Protect Your Home, Yourself and Your Community in the Age of Heat."</span></em></p>Adapting to our fiery future means preparing for the risks and not putting out every low-risk wildfire, writes the author of a new book on learning to live with fire.Justin Angle, Professor of Marketing, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118692023-08-18T21:50:54Z2023-08-18T21:50:54ZTropical Storm Hilary pounds Southern California with heavy rain, flash flooding<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543534/original/file-20230818-19-oy7ob6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=975%2C10%2C2274%2C1368&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hurricane Hilary was a powerful Category 4 storm as it headed for Baja California on Aug. 18, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/">NOAA NESDIS</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Tropical Storm Hilary <a href="https://apnews.com/article/hilary-tropical-storm-flooding-california-mexico-f89aeddeb62d55c935699ac81ca85f1d">made landfall</a> on Mexico’s Baja peninsula, and its damaging wind and heavy rainfall moved <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS86-KLOX.shtml">into Southern California</a> on <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/204813.shtml?cone#contents">Aug. 20, 2023</a>. For the <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanDiego/status/1692564593132933367">first time ever</a>, the National Hurricane Center had <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep09/ep092023.public.011.shtml?">issued a tropical storm watch</a> for large parts of Southern California. Forecasters warned of a “<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep09/ep092023.discus.014.shtml?">potentially historic</a> amount of rainfall,” and the governors of <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/08/19/governor-newsom-proclaims-state-of-emergency-as-hurricane-hilary-approaches-california/">California</a> and <a href="https://carsonnow.org/story/08/20/2023/governor-lombardo-declares-state-emergency-across-nevada-due-hurricane-hilary">Nevada</a> declared states of emergency.</em></p>
<p><em>Hurricane scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5uEy_XoAAAAJ&hl=en">Nick Grondin</a> explained ahead of landfall why <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/HILARY.shtml?">the storm</a>, with help from El Niño and a heat dome over much of the country, could bring <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep09/ep092023.public.011.shtml?">flash flooding</a>, wind damage and mudslides to the region.</em></p>
<h2>How rare are tropical storms in the Southwest?</h2>
<p>California had only one confirmed tropical storm landfall in the past. It was in September 1939 and called <a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/150-years/sd-me-150-years-september-26-htmlstory.html">the Long Beach Tropical Storm</a>. It caused <a href="https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/chenowethlandsea.pdf">about US$2 million dollars</a> in damage in the Los Angeles area – that would be about $44 million today. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-11-1689">hurricane in 1858</a> came close but didn’t make landfall, though its winds did significant damage to San Diego.</p>
<p>What the Southwest does see fairly regularly are the remnants of tropical cyclones, storms that continue on after a tropical cyclone loses its surface circulation. These remnant storms are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3389.1">more common</a> in the region than people might think. </p>
<p>Just last year, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP122022_Kay.pdf">Hurricane Kay</a> took a similar track to the one Hurricane Hilary is on and brought significant rainfall to Southern California and Arizona. Famously, <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/nora1997.html">Hurricane Nora in 1997</a> made landfall in Mexico’s Baja California and kept moving north, bringing tropical storm-force winds to California and widespread flooding that caused <a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/hazstat/sum97.pdf">hundreds of millions of dollars in damage</a>, particularly to fruit trees <a href="https://www.weather.gov/media/hazstat/sum97.pdf">and agriculture</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map shows rainfall forecast across much of Southern California and into Arizona and Nevada." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543551/original/file-20230819-19-dbyiqs.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The National Hurricane Center’s three-day rainfall forecast issued Aug. 19, 2023, shows rainfall totals that are well above what some areas typically receive in a year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/175024.shtml?rainqpf#contents">National Hurricane Center</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A study led by atmospheric scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=rHHmqXgAAAAJ&hl=en">Elizabeth Ritchie</a> in 2011 found that, on average, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3389.1">about 3.1 remnant systems</a> from tropical cyclones affected the U.S. Southwest each year from 1992 to 2005. That’s a short record, but it gives you an idea of the frequency.</p>
<p>Typically, the remnants of tropical cyclones don’t go beyond California, Nevada and Arizona, <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/tcrainfall.html">though it wouldn’t be unprecedented</a>. In this case, forecasters expect the effects to extend far north. The National Hurricane Center on Aug. 18 projected at least a <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/175024.shtml?ero#contents">moderate risk of flooding</a> across large parts of Southern California, southern Nevada and far-western Arizona, and a high risk of flooding for regions east of San Diego.</p>
<h2>What’s making this storm so unusual?</h2>
<p>One influence is the <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-is-back-thats-good-news-or-bad-news-depending-on-where-you-live-205974">El Niño climate pattern</a> this year, which is showing signs of strengthening in the Pacific. Another, which might be less intuitive, is the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/08/17/heat-wave-texas-excessive-heat-warning/">heat dome over much of the U.S.</a></p>
<p>During El Niño, the tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, and both the eastern and central Pacific tend to be more active with storms, as we saw in 2015 and 1997. Generally, hurricanes need <a href="https://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/hurricanes.html">at least 80 degrees</a> Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to maintain their intensity. Normally, the waters off Southern California <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/coastal-water-temperature-guide/spac.html">are much cooler</a>. But with the high initial intensity of Hurricane Hilary over warm water to the south, and the fact that the storm is moving fast, forecasters think it might be able to survive the cooler water.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1691594717115335132"}"></div></p>
<p>The influence of the heat dome is interesting. Meteorology researcher <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=16yNCisAAAAJ&hl=en">Kimberly Wood</a> published a fantastic thread on X, formerly known as Twitter, describing the <a href="https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1691956790144155962">large-scale pattern around similar storms</a> that have affected the southwestern United States. A common thread with these storms is the presence of a ridge, or high-pressure system, in the central U.S. When you have a high-pressure system like the heat dome covering much of the country, air is pushed down and warms significantly. Air around this ridge is moving clockwise. Meanwhile, a low-pressure system is over the Pacific Ocean with winds rotating counterclockwise. The result is that these <a href="https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1691594717115335132">winds are likely to accelerate Hilary northward</a> into California.</p>
<p>Despite the rarity of tropical cyclones reaching California, numerical weather prediction models since the storm’s formation have generally shown Hilary likely to accelerate along the west coast of Baja California and push into Southern California.</p>
<h2>What are the risks?</h2>
<p>The threat of tropical storm-force winds led the National Hurricane Center to issue its <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanDiego/status/1692564593132933367">first-ever tropical storm watch</a> for Southern California on Aug. 18. However, water is almost always the primary concern with tropical storms. In California, that can mean flash flooding from extreme rainfall enhanced by mountains.</p>
<p>When a tropical storm plows up on a mountain, that can lead to more lifting, more condensation aloft and more rainfall than might otherwise be expected. It happened with <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP142018_Lane.pdf">Hurricane Lane in Hawaii</a> in 2018 and can also happen in other tropical cyclone-prone locations with significant orographic, or mountain, effects, such as the west coast of Mexico.</p>
<p>That can mean dangerous flash flooding from the runoff. It can also have a secondary hazard – mudslides, <a href="https://twitter.com/CAL_FIRE/status/1692596995330814311">including in areas recovering from wildfires</a>.</p>
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<p>In dry areas, heavy downpours can also trigger flash flooding. Forecasts showed Death Valley likely to get <a href="https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1692550601677390298">more rain from the storm</a> than <a href="https://www.nps.gov/deva/planyourvisit/weather.htm">its average</a> for an entire year. Death Valley National Park warned of <a href="https://www.nps.gov/deva/planyourvisit/conditions.htm">flash flooding through Aug. 22</a> and closed its visitor centers and campgrounds. </p>
<p>Keep in mind this is still an evolving situation. Forecasts can change, and all it takes is one band of rain setting up in the right spot to cause significant flooding. Those in the path of Hilary should refer to their local weather offices for additional information. This would include local <a href="http://www.hurricanes.gov">National Weather Service</a> offices in the United States and <a href="https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/">Servicio Meteorológico Nacional</a> in Mexico.</p>
<p><em>This article, originally published Aug. 18, 2023, was updated with Tropical Storm Hilary making landfall.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211869/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Grondin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Forecasters warned of ‘potentially historic rainfall’ and ‘dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding.’ A hurricane scientist explains what El Niño, a heat dome and mountains have to do with the risk.Nicholas Grondin, Assistant Professor of Environmental Studies, University of TampaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2117122023-08-17T19:42:11Z2023-08-17T19:42:11ZA changing climate, growing human populations and widespread fires contributed to the last major extinction event − can we prevent another?<p>Over the past decade, deadly wildfires have become increasingly common because of both <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/climate-change-is-escalating-californias-wildfires/">human-caused climate change</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/13/us/hawaii-wildfire-factors.html">disruptive land management practices</a>. Southern California, where the three of us live and work, has been <a href="https://ktla.com/news/the-cities-where-wildfires-threaten-the-most-homes-in-california/">hit especially hard</a>.</p>
<p>Southern California also experienced a wave of wildfires 13,000 years ago. These fires permanently transformed the region’s vegetation and <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo3594">contributed to Earth’s largest extinction</a> in more than 60 million years.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/person/emily-lindsey/">paleontologists</a>, <a href="https://nhm.org/person/dunn-regan">we have</a> a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_FveDz4AAAAJ&hl=en">unique perspective</a> on the long-term causes and consequences of environmental changes, both those linked to natural climate fluctuations and those wrought by humans. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo3594">In a new study</a>, published in August 2023, we sought to understand changes that were happening in California during the last major extinction event at the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Pleistocene-Epoch">end of the Pleistocene</a>, a time period known as the Ice Age. This event wiped out <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-happened-worlds-most-enormous-animals-180964255/">most of Earth’s large mammals</a> between about 10,000 and 50,000 years ago. This was a time marked by dramatic climate upheavals and rapidly spreading human populations. </p>
<h2>The last major extinction</h2>
<p>Scientists often call the past 66 million years of Earth’s history the Age of Mammals. During this time, our furry relatives took advantage of the <a href="https://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/how-an-asteroid-caused-extinction-of-dinosaurs.html">extinction of the dinosaurs</a> to become the dominant animals on the planet. </p>
<p>During the Pleistocene, Eurasia and the Americas teemed with enormous beasts like woolly mammoths, giant bears and dire wolves. Two species of camels, three species of ground sloths and five species of large cats <a href="https://tarpits.org/research-collections/tar-pits-collections/mammal-collections">roamed what is now Los Angeles</a>.</p>
<p>Then, abruptly, they were gone. All over the world, the large mammals that had characterized global ecosystems for tens of millions of years disappeared. North America <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.34.011802.132415">lost more than 70%</a> of mammals weighing more than 97 pounds (44 kilograms). South America lost more than 80%, Australia nearly 90%. Only Africa, Antarctica and a few remote islands retain what could be considered “natural” animal communities today.</p>
<p>The reason for these extinctions remains obscure. For decades, paleontologists and archaeologists have debated potential causes. What has befuddled scientists is not that there are no obvious culprits but that there are too many. </p>
<p>As the last ice age ended, a warming climate led to altered weather patterns and the reorganization of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.08.029">plant communities</a>. At the same time, human populations were rapidly increasing and <a href="https://www.worldhistory.org/article/1070/early-human-migration/">spreading around the globe</a>. </p>
<p>Either or both of these processes could be implicated in the extinction event. But the fossil record of any region is usually too sparse to know exactly when large mammal species disappeared from different regions. This makes it difficult to determine whether habitat loss, resource scarcity, natural disasters, human hunting or some combination of these factors is to blame.</p>
<h2>A deadly combination</h2>
<p>Some records offer clues. <a href="https://tarpits.org/">La Brea Tar Pits</a> in Los Angeles, the world’s richest ice age fossil site, preserves the bones of thousands of large mammals that were trapped in viscous asphalt seeps <a href="https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20191203-160736818">over the past 60,000 years</a>. Proteins in these bones can be precisely dated <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quageo.2014.03.002">using radioactive carbon</a>, giving scientists unprecedented insight into an ancient ecosystem and an opportunity to illuminate the timing – and causes – of its collapse. </p>
<p>Our recent study from La Brea Tar Pits and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Elsinore">nearby Lake Elsinore</a> has unearthed evidence of a dramatic event 13,000 years ago that permanently transformed Southern California’s vegetation and <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo3594">caused the disappearance</a> of La Brea’s iconic mega-mammals. </p>
<p>Sediment archives from the lake’s bottom and archaeological records provide evidence of a deadly combination – a warming climate <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.3018">punctuated by decadeslong droughts</a> and rapidly rising human populations. These factors pushed the Southern California ecosystem to a tipping point. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501682">Similar combinations</a> of climate warming and human impacts have been blamed for ice age extinctions elsewhere, but our study found something new. The catalyst for this dramatic transformation seems to have been an unprecedented increase in wildfires, which were probably set by humans. </p>
<p>The processes that led to this collapse are familiar today. As California warmed coming out of the last ice age, the landscape became drier and forests receded. At La Brea, herbivore populations declined, probably from a combination of human hunting and habitat loss. Species associated with trees, like camels, disappeared entirely. </p>
<p>In the millennium leading up to the extinction, mean annual temperatures in the region <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2019.03.024">rose 10 degrees Farenheit</a> (5.5 degrees Celsius), and the lake began evaporating. Then, 13,200 years ago, the ecosystem entered a 200-year-long drought. Half of the remaining trees died. With fewer large herbivores to eat it, dead vegetation built up on the landscape. </p>
<p>At the same time, human populations began expanding across North America. And as they spread, people brought with them a powerful new tool – fire. </p>
<p>Humans and our ancestors have used fire for <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/artificial-intelligence-may-have-unearthed-one-world-s-oldest-campfires">hundreds of thousands of years</a>, but fire has <a href="https://www.firescience.gov/projects/09-2-01-9/supdocs/09-2-01-9_Chapter_3_Fire_Regimes.pdf">different impacts in different ecosystems</a>. Charcoal records from Lake Elsinore reveal that before humans, fire activity was low in coastal Southern California. But 13,200 to 13,000 years ago, as human populations grew, fire in the region increased by an order of magnitude. </p>
<p>Our research suggests that the combination of heat, drought, herbivore loss and human-set fires had pushed this system to a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11018">tipping point</a>. At the end of this period, Southern California was covered in chaparral plants, which thrive after fires. A new fire regime had become established, and the iconic La Brea megafauna had disappeared.</p>
<h2>Lessons for the future</h2>
<p>Studying the causes and consequences of the Pleistocene extinctions in California can provide valuable context for understanding today’s climate and biodiversity crises. A similar combination of climate warming, expanding human populations, biodiversity loss and human-ignited fires that characterized the ice age extinction interval in Southern California are <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1126/science.abb0355">playing out again today</a>.</p>
<p>The alarming difference is that temperatures today are rising <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/todays-climate-change-proves-much-faster-than-changes-in-past-65-million-years/">10 times faster</a> than they did at the end of the ice age, primarily because of the burning of fossil fuels. This human-caused climate change has contributed to a fivefold increase in fire frequency and intensity and the amount of area burned in the state of California in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001210">past 45 years</a>. </p>
<p>While California is now <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148908/whats-behind-californias-surge-of-large-fires">famous for extreme fires</a>, our study reveals that fire is a relatively new phenomenon in this region. In the 20,000 years leading up to the extinction, the Lake Elsinore record shows very low incidence of any fire even during comparable periods of drought. Only after human arrival does fire become a regular part of the ecosystem. </p>
<p>Even today, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pge-caused-california-wildfires-safety-measures-2019-10">downed power lines</a>, campfires and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/07/us/gender-reveal-party-wildfire.html">other human activities</a> start <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF18026">over 90%</a> of wildfires in coastal California. </p>
<p>The parallels between the late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions and today’s environmental crises are striking. The past teaches us that the ecosystems we depend upon are vulnerable to collapse when stressed by multiple intersecting pressures. Redoubling efforts to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions, prevent reckless fire ignitions and preserve Earth’s remaining megafauna can help avert another, even more catastrophic transformation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211712/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Lindsey receives funding from the National Science Foundation, which funded some of the research reported in this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa N. Martinez receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the UCLA Endowed Chair in Geography of California and the American West. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Regan E. Dunn receives funding from National Science Foundation and NASA. </span></em></p>New findings from the La Brea Tar Pits in southern California suggest human-caused wildfires in the region, along with a warming climate, led to the loss of most of the area’s large mammals.Emily Lindsey, Associate Curator, La Brea Tar Pits; Adjunct Faculty, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, UCLA, University of California, Los AngelesLisa N. Martinez, Ph.D. Candidate in Geography, University of California, Los AngelesRegan E. Dunn, Adjunct Professor of Earth Sciences, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2101542023-08-08T12:29:52Z2023-08-08T12:29:52ZOlder ‘sandwich generation’ Californians spent more time with parents and less with grandkids after paid family leave law took effect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541049/original/file-20230803-27-xpn12q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4535%2C2841&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nearly a dozen states have enacted these policies so far.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/woman-taking-care-of-old-woman-in-wheelchair-royalty-free-image/970176900?adppopup=true">Westend61 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>A California law that mandates paid family leave has led to adults in their 50s, 60s and 70s spending more time taking care of their parents and less time being their grandkids’ caregivers.</p>
<p>The law requires all employers to allow eligible workers to <a href="https://edd.ca.gov/en/disability/Am_I_Eligible_for_PFL_Benefits/">take up to six weeks of paid leave</a> to care for newborns, newly adopted children or seriously ill family members.</p>
<p>From 2006, two years after the law went into effect, to 2016, <a href="https://ca.db101.org/ca/situations/workandbenefits/rights/program2c.htm">this policy led to older adults’ spending 19 fewer hours</a> per year caring for their grandchildren, a 17% decrease. They spent 20 additional hours on average helping their own parents, a 50% increase. </p>
<p>The effect was most striking for people with newborn grandchildren and parents in need of help, but the law also benefited Californians with older grandchildren and those who don’t have parents requiring their assistance.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08959420.2023.2226283">These findings</a> are from research I conducted with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yWNlAzcAAAAJ">Marcus Dillender</a>, a fellow economist. They suggest the law had effects through two channels. It enabled older adults to take paid leave to care for relatives with medical needs and it reduced the need for older adults to care for their grandchildren by granting paid parental leave to these children’s parents.</p>
<p>To assess how older adults spend their time, we analyzed data for people between the ages of 50 and 79 from the Health and Retirement Study, a <a href="https://hrs.isr.umich.edu/">longitudinal study of approximately 20,000 Americans</a>.</p>
<p>The survey asks respondents in that age group how much time they spend taking care of their grandchildren and helping their aging parents with basic personal activities like dressing, eating and bathing. We compared outcomes for people who lived in California with what happened to Americans in other states before and the law’s enactment.</p>
<p>We also looked into what happened for people who had different combinations of caregiving obligations – grandchildren less than 2 years old or older grandkids, or parents who need help or no parents requiring assistance.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>The U.S. is the only wealthy country that <a href="https://www.oecd.org/els/soc/PF2_1_Parental_leave_systems.pdf">doesn’t require employers to provide paid family leave</a>. California was the first state to implement its own policies; <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/labor-and-employment/state-family-and-medical-leave-laws">10 others and the District of Columbia</a> have followed suit so far.</p>
<p>These policies can significantly affect older adults, who spend substantial time caring for their relatives.</p>
<p>Caregiving has become a more urgent policy issue because of the growing number of Americans who feel that they belong to a “<a href="https://www.michiganmedicine.org/health-lab/sandwich-generation-study-shows-challenges-caring-both-kids-and-aging-parents">sandwich generation</a>” of people who have to take care of their children or grandchildren and their parents at the same time. </p>
<h2>What other research is being done</h2>
<p>Other research has found that California’s paid family leave policy doubled the overall length of maternity leave by new mothers, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21676">increasing it from an average of three weeks to six weeks</a>. It also upped the likelihood that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22030">fathers take parental leave</a> following the birth or adoption of a child by 46% – although <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.21894">fathers take less leave on average than mothers</a>.</p>
<p>According to some of the many other studies conducted so far, California’s paid family leave law helped workers with caregiving responsibilities stay employed by allowing them to take time off with reduced financial risk and increased job continuity, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/workar/waab022">including for those ages 45 to 64 with a disabled spouse</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/gny105">middle-aged female caregivers</a>. The law has, in addition, reduced the share of elderly people using nursing homes by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pam.22038">facilitating more informal care</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210154/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joelle Abramowitz receives funding from the National Institute on Aging, the Social Security Administration and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>The law changed older adults’ caregiving behavior because their children became more able to take paid time off work to care for their own newborns.Joelle Abramowitz, Assistant Research Scientist at the Survey Research Center, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2028242023-07-27T12:25:16Z2023-07-27T12:25:16ZI’ve taught in prisons for 15 years – here’s what schools need to know as government funding expands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536669/original/file-20230710-36093-htveov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C0%2C6000%2C3943&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In the U.S., almost 2 million people are in prison.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/barbed-wire-against-sunset-sky-background-royalty-free-image/1296193766?phrase=prisoners+&adppopup=true">Rizky Panuntun/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In spring of 2023, I taught a class on memoir at the <a href="https://www.cdcr.ca.gov/facility-locator/ciw/">California Institution for Women</a>, a medium-security facility, in Chino. </p>
<p>The course focused on autobiographical writing. Each week, students were asked to draft narratives focused on their life story and its larger social context. </p>
<p>In addition to writers-in-custody at the prison, the class enrolled University of Southern California students. Every week, my colleague and I drove 12 USC undergraduates out to the prison to join their incarcerated peers in class. Both populations received college credit for their work.</p>
<p>After the class ended, I received a thank-you note from one of our incarcerated students. Jaime – I’ve changed her name for privacy – wanted to let me know that she was writing more than ever to prepare for her release. She said the USC students were a model for her, and she could see herself being friends with them on the outside.</p>
<p>I have taught in prisons and jails for 15 years, both as a volunteer and as the director of <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/pep/">USC’s Dornsife Prison Education Project</a>. My teaching and writing focus on how everyday speech can find its way and <a href="https://poems.com/poem/well/">make lyric expression</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536671/original/file-20230710-16328-wgqxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Standing before a whiteboard, a female instructor talks to three prisoners seated at a table and dressed in orange jump suits." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536671/original/file-20230710-16328-wgqxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536671/original/file-20230710-16328-wgqxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536671/original/file-20230710-16328-wgqxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536671/original/file-20230710-16328-wgqxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536671/original/file-20230710-16328-wgqxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536671/original/file-20230710-16328-wgqxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536671/original/file-20230710-16328-wgqxtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Education for inmates leads to lower rates of re-offending after release.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/woman-talking-to-inmates-royalty-free-image/86501547?phrase=prison+classroom&adppopup=true">Jupiterimages/Stockbyte via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>USC’s Dornsife Prison Education Project offers courses for enrichment and college credit to people within California correctional facilities. The program organization also sponsors projects like criminal record <a href="https://www.nacdl.org/content/expungement-clinics">expungement clinics</a>, during which law school and community volunteers help people clear their criminal records. </p>
<p>Jaime’s note wasn’t the first I’ve received since beginning to teach in prisons, but it was one of the most meaningful. This was the first semester my university made an important investment by granting incarcerated students credit for their work. Until this point, PEP’s courses were offered solely for enrichment. </p>
<h2>Cost of incarceration</h2>
<p>Today, there are over <a href="https://doi-org.libproxy1.usc.edu/10.1177/0093854820977587">2 million people</a> in jail or prison in the United States, and annual spending on incarceration exceeds <a href="https://nicic.gov/weblink/economic-burden-incarceration-us-2016">US$80 billion</a>. </p>
<p>This $80 billion may underestimate the true economic picture. Larger social costs associated with mass incarceration exceed <a href="https://ijrd.csw.fsu.edu/sites/g/files/upcbnu1766/files/media/images/publication_pdfs/Economic_Burden_of_Incarceration_IJRD072016_0_0.pdf">$500 billion annually</a>. Most Americans believe <a href="https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000161-2ccc-da2c-a963-efff82be0001">the goal of incarceration should be rehabilitation</a>, but because of the <a href="https://www.themarshallproject.org/2018/03/01/the-everyday-chaos-of-incarceration">climate of violence</a> in most prisons, very little <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-criminol-030920-112506">actual rehabilitation takes place</a>. Recidivism rates support this: <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/recidivism-prisoners-released-34-states-2012-5-year-follow-period-2012-2017">Seven out of 10 people will be arrested again within five years of their release</a>. </p>
<p>Both spending and rates of incarceration have increased sixfold over the last 50 years, reaching <a href="https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/correctional-populations-united-states-2012">a peak in 2009</a> and dropping slightly since then with little to no effect on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/715100">re-offense rates</a> or <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511616167.005">public safety</a>. Mass incarceration has proved somehow to be both extraordinarily expensive and preposterously ineffective. </p>
<p>But research shows that one of the most effective ways to make real change when it comes to mass incarceration is by expanding access to education. As soon as a person who is incarcerated steps into a classroom, <a href="https://doi.org/10.7249/RR266">their likelihood to re-offend decreases</a>. With each educational milestone achieved, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2021.2005122">those rates continue to go down</a>. </p>
<h2>Opportunities slowly growing</h2>
<p>Participation in higher education programs increases critical thinking and raises <a href="https://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/education-leads-higher-earnings">potential future earnings</a>, with the benefits extending beyond the individual to the community as well. </p>
<p>Despite these clear benefits, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12290">most prisons only offer access to high school equivalency classes and testing</a>, and some vocational classes. Few offer post-secondary educational opportunities. <a href="http://doi.org/10.1177/0032885518776376">Only approximately 202 credit-bearing college programs exist</a> in U.S. prisons. These are mostly offered to men imprisoned on the East and West coasts, even though <a href="https://www.ncja.org/crimeandjusticenews/six-times-more-female-inmates-than-there-were-in-1980">women’s incarceration rates have increased by 525% since 1980</a>.</p>
<p>Over the last decade, I’ve witnessed incredible growth of prison education. When I began this work in 2006, only a handful of institutions granted Bachelors of Arts degrees to incarcerated people. But recently, director and project manager positions were posted by schools like <a href="https://sites.northwestern.edu/npep/program_team/">Northwestern</a>, <a href="https://www.wesleyan.edu/cpe/">Wesleyan</a> and <a href="https://prisonsandjustice.georgetown.edu/programs/scholarsprogram/">Georgetown</a> universities. In the next five years, I expect these programs to multiply.</p>
<p>Driving this expansion is the fact that in December 2022, Congress restored access to <a href="https://fsapartners.ed.gov/knowledge-center/library/dear-colleague-letters/2023-03-29/eligibility-confined-or-incarcerated-individuals-receive-pell-grants">Pell Grants for incarcerated students</a>. In July 2023, an estimated <a href="https://www.vera.org/publications/restoring-access-to-pell-grants-for-incarcerated-students">463,000 incarcerated people will become eligible for federal student aid</a>. </p>
<p>This increased accessibility to federal money for incarcerated students has created a new revenue stream for colleges and universities. Many schools will look to compete for these federal dollars, and incarcerated people will have more choices when it comes to their education. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Seven inmates earned associate degrees from the University of New Haven.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A heavy lift</h2>
<p>But these new opportunities bring new potential problems. </p>
<p>First, more money creates renewed motivation for predatory institutions to exploit an already vulnerable population. I regularly meet students who have several degrees from <a href="https://doi.org/10.14288/ce.v10i13.186525">pay-to-play degree mills</a>. Many of these students are the first in their families to attend college and are navigating the process alone – a reality that makes them susceptible to exploitation. With the increase of federal dollars, I expect more for-profit universities to offer incarcerated people degrees with nominal utility. </p>
<p>Beyond bad actors, many smaller regional universities and colleges are facing what’s been dubbed the “<a href="https://nscresearchcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/CTEE_Report_Spring_2023.pdf">enrollment cliff</a>,” or a drop in the population of traditional students beginning in 2025 <a href="https://www.bestcolleges.com/news/analysis/looming-enrollment-cliff-poses-serious-threat-to-colleges/">due to a declining U.S. birth rate</a>. As a result, they are looking for nontraditional students to fill the gap, including incarcerated people. </p>
<p>I fear a massive onslaught of new players rushing to meet this need will lead to careless program design and speedy implementations. </p>
<h2>Hard to do well</h2>
<p>This is a concern because prison higher education programs are incredibly difficult to administer. Space within prisons is at a premium. Moving students from one area to another presents logistical challenges. </p>
<p>Best practices within prison education have been notoriously difficult to define because of how site-specific programs are. Even within large, well-funded correctional systems like California’s, I’ve observed massive cultural differences between facilities that are across the street from each other. </p>
<p>Classes are frequently canceled due to the day-to-day operations of the prison, making it difficult to deliver good instruction. For example, if a typical course requires a certain amount of instructor-to-student contact hours and classes are regularly interrupted due to prison trainings, audits and security concerns, how does the program make up those missed classes? </p>
<p>Students often need different levels of support services due to varying, and often low, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/educsci11020077">literacy levels</a>. These services are available on campus, but creating them in a prison is next to impossible. </p>
<p>Further, students may be transferred from one prison to another where the programs they’ve begun are no longer available. </p>
<p>Persuading faculty to teach in prison in addition to their usual class load at the university adds yet another barrier. </p>
<p>Managing a program that offers higher education in prison necessitates the active management not only of law enforcement bureaucracies, but of complex university ones that are slow to adapt to change. Yet unlike on a college campus, one miscommunication in prison – like someone missing an email – can put a class on hold for an indeterminate amount of time. </p>
<p>I’ve observed institutions enter prisons and then abruptly disband programs after problems arise, abandoning students already distrustful of the system.</p>
<p>Jaime’s letter proves the power of these programs on the individual. A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0264550517699290">review of prison research</a> concludes the same thing. </p>
<p>As more colleges invest in these populations, I’d argue these new programs must deeply invest in this population and commit to providing the opportunities they create. It’s important to offer incarcerated students the same support systems that traditional campus students receive, while being fully aware of the challenges they face. </p>
<p>Otherwise, these programs may in fact disappoint students like Jaime rather than inspire them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas De Dominic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Only 218 programs offer credit-bearing college programs in prison. That’s about to change.Nicholas De Dominic, Associate Professor of Writing, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2100522023-07-25T12:24:54Z2023-07-25T12:24:54ZHow well-managed dams and smart forecasting can limit flooding as extreme storms become more common in a warming world<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539106/original/file-20230724-23-mmz6zl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1917%2C1434&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dams and reservoirs often serve several purposes, including flood control.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/departmentofenergy/40799968363">Karl Specht/U.S. Department of Energy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As rising global temperatures <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/world-meteorological-day/world-meteorological-day-2022-early-warning-early-action/climate-change-and-extreme-weather">make extreme storms more common</a>, the nation’s dams and reservoirs – crucial to keeping communities dry – <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-increasing-stress-on-thousands-of-aging-dams-across-the-us-209568">are being tested</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/intense-storms-the-northeast-cause-catastrophic-flooding">Storms in the U.S. Northeast</a> stretched the region’s flood control systems nearly to the breaking point in July 2023. <a href="https://theconversation.com/epic-snow-from-all-those-atmospheric-rivers-in-the-west-is-starting-to-melt-and-the-flood-danger-is-rising-203874">California</a> and states <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/04/27/mississippi-river-flooding-minnesota-wisconsin-iowa/">along the Mississippi River</a> faced similar flood control challenges in 2023. </p>
<p>Managing these flood control systems is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000432">a careful balancing act</a>. Do managers release water to make room for the storm’s runoff, increasing the risk of flooding downstream, or hold as much as possible to protect downstream farms and communities, which could increase the chance of larger floods if another storm comes through?</p>
<p>The earlier decisions can be made, the better the chance of avoiding downstream damage. But forecasts aren’t always reliable, and waiting for the rain to fall may mean acting too late.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/z-3JR5-afjE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite water vapor imagery from July 9-11, 2023, shows the storms over the Northeast. Moisture-rich clouds are green, while drier air is orange.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I managed flood control reservoirs in Iowa and locks and dams along the Mississippi and Illinois rivers for a decade, and I now research the operation of large systems of reservoirs for flood control at the University of Iowa’s <a href="https://iowafloodcenter.org">Iowa Flood Center</a>. Here’s what reservoir managers think about during storms, and how efforts to improve forecasting may soon be able to reduce flood damage:</p>
<h2>The many roles of dams</h2>
<p>The United States is home to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01134-7">over 50,000 operable reservoirs</a> that are overseen by dozens of state and federal agencies. Cumulatively, these dams store more water than Lakes Erie and Tahoe combined. Thousands of square miles of rainfall may run off the landscape into rivers and streams and ultimately drain into a single reservoir.</p>
<p>Using a gated outlet, reservoirs smooth streamflow throughout the year by storing water during heavy rains and releasing it to offset the effects of drought. This helps ensure a reliable water supply for agriculture, power generation and residential use.</p>
<p>Importantly, the reservoirs also provide flood protection for downstream communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large dam with every gate open, including a spill way." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539107/original/file-20230724-15-hngube.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Stevenson Dam on the Housatonic River in Connecticut can help prevent downstream flooding, but during extreme storms, like the remnants of Hurricane Irene in 2011, its managers have to release more water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Irene/711a93b3fa034b5ab6753fe3c213da7d/photo">AP Photo/Jessica Hill</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Extreme storms can mean difficult trade-offs</h2>
<p>Reservoir management can be drastically complicated when rainfall occurs in concentrated bursts.</p>
<p>Reservoir operators are ready around the clock to respond to heavy rain. By adjusting gates within a reservoir’s outlet, water can be stored behind the dam, just like a bathtub with the drain partially blocked. That allows operators to release water slowly, in a controlled manner, to avoid flooding downstream communities.</p>
<p>Operators can also help downstream communities at risk of flash flooding by limiting the amount of water they release from the reservoir. That decision <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029160">has to be made quickly</a>, though – water takes time to move downstream. If the flow is cut too late, the manager may squander the opportunity to help.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three huge, closed metal gates reflected off wet pavement below." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539108/original/file-20230724-7452-8tgmcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These 45-foot-high gates on a new auxiliary spillway were designed to allow dam operators to release water from California’s Folsom Reservoir earlier to reduce flood risk in the Sacramento area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sacramentodistrict/31445802114">U.S. Army Corps of Engineers</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s when the entire region is getting heavy rain – both upstream and downstream from the reservoir – that reservoir operators face the greatest stress.</p>
<p>When rainfall is heavy or multiple storms occur in a short period, there often is not enough time to release the accumulated water from one event to make room for the next storm. If a reservoir is full, an overflow spillway will likely be activated, routing additional water around the dam to avoid damaging the dam itself. Though this maintains the structural integrity of the dam, it can drastically worsen downstream flooding.</p>
<h2>What the manuals say</h2>
<p>To help managers make these tough decisions, most flood control reservoirs have a regulation manual that outlines the process for operating the gates during floods.</p>
<p>Every flood control reservoir is unique, and these documents account for the specific priorities associated with each location. A flood control manual may stipulate maximum allowable outflows as reservoir levels rise. It also may constrain flows based on downstream river gauges to reduce flood impacts.</p>
<p>Managers still have to make choices, though. While the manual may give specific storage or downstream flow targets, no two floods are the same. It is up to reservoir operators to determine how to meet those targets. Releasing too little water can increase the risk of even larger floods in the future if more storms are on the way.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Water pours out of seven large flood gates of a dam." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/539109/original/file-20230724-2397-e8pyjy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The T. Howard Duckett Dam on the Patuxent River releases water from all seven floodgates in Laurel, Md., in 2014 to manage rainfall from a storm. Parts of the city ended up flooding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SevereWeatherDamEvacuations/e71f483e077f4f45bf5ea2140f30d990/photo">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This trade-off between current and future flood risk is known as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000432">hedging</a>.”</p>
<p>Years of research with complex computer models and simulation have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029160">helped optimize this decision-making process</a>. Unfortunately, what looks good on paper isn’t always easy to put into practice, particularly when many of the nation’s aging dams require manually opening or closing the gates. Further, these decisions are often made during heavy rainfall, when conditions change quickly, and the operators do not have the gift of hindsight.</p>
<h2>Accurate forecasts are essential</h2>
<p>To make the best possible decisions about water releases, accurate forecasts are essential. This is an area ripe for improvement.</p>
<p>The value of a rainfall forecast for reservoir operation can be thought of as a three-legged stool built on where, when and how much rain falls. A rainfall forecast that only gets two of these three variables correct may do more harm than good. For example, a manager could preemptively release water for a storm that is expected upstream of a reservoir – only to see the storm hit downstream instead, potentially causing flood damage when combined with those preemptive releases.</p>
<p>To mitigate this risk, many flood control reservoirs are operated using a “water on the ground” approach. Rather than using a forecast, this approach waits to see where the rain falls and then reacts. Though this often results in a delayed reservoir response, it also reduces the risk of operational mistakes.</p>
<p>Recent projects using “<a href="https://water.ca.gov/News/Blog/2023/Jan-23/Californias-Forecast-Informed-Reservoir-Operations-Are-Key-to-Managing-Floods-and-Water-Supplies">forecast-informed reservoir operation</a>” have shown how advancements in hydrologic forecasting may lead to better reservoir management. Though many of these projects are in early phases, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026604">studies show</a> that there may be potential to use forecast-informed reservoir operation to help manage floods, while also maximizing water supply within regions that are prone to droughts. This trade-off has historically been particularly hard to navigate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Four maps show how risk of extreme precipitation increased in some regions, particularly the Northeast, and projections of increasing rainfall in the East in the coming decades." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=727&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/481011/original/file-20220825-17-jfr4s5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The numbers in black dots show the percentage change in extreme rainfall for each region over the years listed. The lower maps show projections. Even in a future with low greenhouse gas emissions, extreme precipitation events will be more likely in some regions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">National Climate Assessment 2018</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As climate change <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">makes extreme rainfall more common</a>, it will further test the nation’s flood-fighting capabilities and reservoir networks’ finite storage.</p>
<p>Expanding the number and size of reservoirs could help, but the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1032/1/012020">social and ecological impacts</a> make reservoir construction a tough political sell. Optimizing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6005">existing storage</a> is the next-best strategy. Regardless, reservoir managers and forecasters are positioned at the front line of a battle that will become more challenging in a warming future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210052/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Riley Post receives funding from National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program (NSF-GRFP, Grant #: 1945994) and the University of Iowa Post-Comprehensive Fellowship.</span></em></p>An engineer who managed dams for years explains the tradeoffs operators make as they decide when to release water and how much to stay safe.Riley Post, PhD Candidate in Water Resources Engineering, University of IowaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095682023-07-13T12:37:12Z2023-07-13T12:37:12ZClimate change is increasing stress on thousands of aging dams across the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536900/original/file-20230711-19-5at0w3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3604&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Flood damage in Edenville, Mich., after a dam failed on May 19, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MidwestFlooding/29e7a5cbb920467d9c1b84db02553cd0/photo">AP Photo/Carlos Osorio</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Heavy rainfall in the Northeast on June 9-11, 2023, <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/weather/2023/07/11/montpelier-vermont-floods-possible-dam-breach/">generated widespread flooding</a>, particularly in New York’s Hudson Valley and in Vermont. One major concern was the <a href="https://dec.vermont.gov/water-investment/dam-safety/dec-owned-dams#Wrightsville%20Dam">Wrightsville Dam</a>, built in 1935 on the Winooski River north of Vermont’s capital city, Montpelier. The reservoir behind the dam rose to within 1 foot of the dam’s maximum storage capacity, prompting warnings that water could <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/weather/2023/07/11/montpelier-vermont-floods-possible-dam-breach/">overtop the dam</a> and worsen already-dangerous conditions downstream, or damage the dam.</em></p>
<p><em><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1IjEUscAAAAJ&hl=en">Hiba Baroud</a>, associate professor and associate chair in the department of civil and environmental engineering at Vanderbilt University, explains how flooding stresses dams in a changing climate.</em></p>
<h2>How serious is the risk when flooding overtops a dam?</h2>
<p>Dam overtopping can result in erosion, which subsequently could lead to a dam breach or failure and a sudden, uncontrolled release of impounded water.</p>
<p>The risk of dam overtopping results from the combined effect of a hazardous event, such as heavy rainfall, and the vulnerability of the dam. A vulnerable dam could be old, poorly maintained or not have enough <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/spillway-engineering">spillway capacity</a> to safely release water from the dam.</p>
<p>A dam’s design can affect its ability to withstand overtopping and resist failure. For example, concrete dams can typically better withstand certain levels of overtopping compared to soil embankment dams. </p>
<p>Overtopping is the leading cause of dam failures in the U.S. It accounts for <a href="https://damsafety.org/dam-failures#The%20Causes%20of%20Dam%20Failures">34% of all dam failures</a>. How long water flows over a dam and the volume of water that flows over it are important factors in determining the likelihood that a dam will fail. </p>
<p>The consequences of a dam overtopping, and possibly failing, depend on several factors, such as the purpose of the dam, its size and its location. If a dam is designed for flood protection and is surrounded by homes, businesses or critical infrastructure, a large uncontrolled release of water could be catastrophic. Dams that are small and located in rural areas may cause less damage if they are overtopped or fail. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1678798286939881472"}"></div></p>
<h2>How old are most US dams?</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://nid.sec.usace.army.mil/#/">more than 91,000 dams</a> across the U.S., in all 50 states, with diverse designs and purposes. The average dam age is 60 years, and more than 8,000 dams <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/problem-america-neglected-too-long-deteriorating-dams">are over 90 years old</a>. </p>
<p>Every four years, the <a href="https://www.asce.org/">American Society of Civil Engineers</a> produces a report card for the nation’s infrastructure that assigns grades based on the condition of structures like roads, bridges and dams, and the investments that they need. The most recent report card estimates that 70% of U.S. dams <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/cat-item/dams-infrastructure/">will be more than 50 years old by 2030</a>. </p>
<p>Overall, the report gave U.S. dams a “D” grade and estimated that more than 2,300 <a href="https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/risk-management/dam-safety/rehabilitation-high-hazard-potential-dams">high hazard potential dams</a> – those that could cause loss of life or serious property damage if they fail, based on the level of development around them – lacked emergency action plans.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">This video captures the failure of the 90-year-old central spillway of the Lake Dunlap Dam in Seguin, Texas, on May 14, 2019. The collapse led to lawsuits and the creation of a water control district to replace the dam and others like it nearby.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Are there ways to strengthen older dams against flooding without completely replacing them?</h2>
<p>Decommissioning or replacing dams can be complicated and cost-prohibitive. It also can have cascading effects on the surrounding community, and possibly on other infrastructure. Regularly maintaining and upgrading older dams can be a cost-effective way to strengthen them and make them resilient to natural hazards. </p>
<p>When dams no longer serve the purposes for which they were built, they may be partially breached or <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-dams-cause-more-problems-than-they-solve-removing-them-can-pay-off-for-people-and-nature-137346">entirely removed</a> to restore the river’s natural flow. </p>
<p>The Association of State Dam Safety Officials estimates that it would cost <a href="https://damsafety-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/files/2023%20ASDSO%20Costs%20of%20Dam%20Rehab%20Report.pdf">US$157.7 billion</a> to rehabilitate all nonfederal dams in the U.S. Of this amount, about one-fifth ($34.1 billion) is for rehabilitating high hazard potential dams. The 2021 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/11/06/fact-sheet-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-deal/">Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act</a> includes <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text">approximately $3 billion</a> for dam safety projects, focusing on rehabilitation, retrofitting and removal.</p>
<h2>Is climate change increasing stress on older dams?</h2>
<p>Climate change is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-intensifies-the-water-cycle-fueling-extreme-rainfall-and-flooding-the-northeast-deluge-was-just-the-latest-209476">increasing the frequency and intensity</a> of natural hazards like storms that threaten dams. And these shifts don’t follow historical trends. Conditions that once were considered extreme will likely be more common in the future. </p>
<p>For example, one recent study on predicting coastal flooding found that in New England, a 100-year flood – that’s an event of a magnitude that now has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11755-z">could become an annual occurrence</a> by the late 2100s. </p>
<p>The fact that the climate is changing also means that extreme events are becoming more extreme. In 2015, a 1,000-year rainfall event in South Carolina resulted in <a href="https://ascelibrary.org/doi/10.1061/9780784480458.024">breaches of 47 dams</a>. </p>
<p>Designing new dams and upgrading existing infrastructure will need to be based on updated design procedures that take into account future climate projections, not just historical hazardous events. While older dams aren’t necessarily unsafe, they were constructed following outdated design standards and construction procedures and for different environmental conditions. That influences the likelihood and consequences of their failure during disasters. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jxNM4DGBRMU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The near-failure of California’s Oroville Dam in February 2017 led to the evacuation of nearly 190,000 people living downstream. A review cited multiple causes, including design and construction flaws, the bedrock upon which the dam was built and lapses in ongoing inspections.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Do you see this event in Vermont as a warning for other communities?</h2>
<p>The disasters that have hit the U.S. in recent years should spur government agencies and communities to prepare and plan for disasters through proactive steps such as developing emergency action plans. </p>
<p>While the number of high hazard potential dams in the U.S. has <a href="https://infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Dams-2021.pdf">more than doubled in the last 20 years</a> as development has moved farther into rural areas, the proportion of these dams with an emergency action plan has also increased. <a href="https://nid.sec.usace.army.mil/#/">It is now at 76%</a>, which is much higher than just a few years ago.</p>
<p>Vulnerable dams and the risk of dam failure cascade through our economy and affect many sectors. Dams serve many purposes: They provide water for drinking and irrigation, generate energy and protect communities from flooding. They are also part of a large navigation network that transports <a href="https://www.iwr.usace.army.mil/Missions/Value-to-the-Nation/Fast-Facts/Inland-Navigation-Fast-Facts/">more than 500 million tons of commodities</a> across the U.S. each year. </p>
<p>As my colleagues and I have shown, it’s important to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12223">understand the direct and indirect costs</a> when critical infrastructure systems like dams fail. This information is crucial for developing strategies that can help the U.S. prepare for future disasters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209568/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hiba Baroud receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Department of Transportation. </span></em></p>More extreme rainfall and frequent storms are raising the risk that floodwaters could spill over dams, or that dams could fail.Hiba Baroud, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2079032023-07-03T15:11:12Z2023-07-03T15:11:12ZHuman exposure to wildfires has more than doubled in two decades – who is at risk might surprise you<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535783/original/file-20230705-17-uqgch7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C26%2C3493%2C2276&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smoke rises from a brush fire near Hollywood Hills in Los Angeles in 2007</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/smoke-rises-from-a-brush-fire-near-the-hollywood-hills-in-news-photo/93050464">Hector Mata/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past two decades, a staggering <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01163-z">21.8 million Americans</a> found themselves living within 3 miles (5 kilometers) of a large wildfire. Most of those residents would have had to evacuate, and many would have been exposed to smoke and emotional trauma from the fire.</p>
<p>Nearly 600,000 of them were directly exposed to the fire, with their homes inside the wildfire perimeter. </p>
<p>Those statistics reflect how the number of people directly exposed to wildfires more than doubled from 2000 to 2019, my team’s <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01163-z">new research</a> shows. </p>
<p>But while commentators often blame the rising risk on homebuilders pushing <a href="https://www.opb.org/news/article/homes-wildfire-wildland-urban-interface-washington-oregon-california/">deeper into the wildland areas</a>, we found that the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-fastest-population-growth-in-the-wests-wildland-urban-interface-is-in-areas-most-vulnerable-to-wildfires-173410">population growth in these high-risk areas</a> explained only a small part of the increase in the number of people who were exposed to wildfires.</p>
<p>Instead, three-quarters of this trend was driven by intense fires growing out of control and encroaching on existing communities.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An aerial view of a community of small, closely built houses, with half the homes in the photo burned." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=597%2C528%2C5718%2C3809&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533306/original/file-20230621-25-w404ho.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A wildfire in 2017 destroyed more than 3,000 homes in Santa Rosa, Calif., a city of over 180,000 people.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/some-houses-burned-and-some-did-not-aerial-view-of-the-news-photo/860304634">Marcus Yam / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That knowledge has implications for how communities prepare to fight wildfires in the future, how they respond to population growth and whether policy changes such as increasing insurance premiums to reduce losses will be effective. It’s also a reminder of what’s at risk from human activities, such as fireworks on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114">July 4, a day when wildfire ignitions spike</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two charts show wildfire counts by day of the year over 20 years. July 4 stands out as a clear spike, both looking at fires US-wide and just in the US West." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534936/original/file-20230629-22632-r5u3fu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mojtaba Sadegh</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where wildfire exposure was highest</h2>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tGGNDyUAAAAJ&hl=en">climate scientist</a> who studies the wildfire-climate relationship and its socioenvironmental impacts. For the new study, colleagues and I analyzed the annual boundaries of more than 15,000 large wildfires across the Lower 48 states and annual population distribution data to estimate the number of people exposed to those fires.</p>
<p>Not every home within a wildfire boundary burns. If you picture wildfire photos taken from a plane, fires generally burn in patches rather than as a wall of flame, and pockets of homes survive.</p>
<p>We found that 80% of the human exposure to wildfires – involving people living within a wildfire boundary from 2000 to 2019 – was in Western states. </p>
<p>California stood out in our analysis. More than 70% of Americans directly exposed to wildfires were in California, but only 15% of the area burned was there. </p>
<p><iframe id="K1mPs" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/K1mPs/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>What climate change has to do with wildfires</h2>
<p>Hot, dry weather pulls moisture from plants and soil, leaving dry fuel that can easily burn. On a windy day – <a href="https://wrcc.dri.edu/Climate/narrative_ca.php">such as California often sees</a> during its hottest, driest months – a spark, for example <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/pge-to-pay-55-million-for-two-massive-california-wildfires">from a power line</a>, campfire or lightning, can start a wildfire that quickly spreads.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213815120">Recent research</a> published in June 2023 shows that almost all of the increase in California’s burned area in recent decades has been due to anthropogenic climate change – meaning climate change caused by humans.</p>
<p>Our new research looked beyond just the area burned and asked: Where were people exposed to wildfires, and why?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A landscape view across a neighborhood with gold courses, lakes and hills in the background. In the foreground is burned cul de sac that appears to be at the edge of the city." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533308/original/file-20230621-26-gfsndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New homes on the edges of cities have been caught in some fires, like the one in Santa Rosa in 2017. But most of the people exposed were in neighborhoods existing well before 2000.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-aftermath-of-a-firestorm-that-began-in-napa-valleys-news-photo/874477844">George Rose/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found that while the population has grown in the wildland-urban interface, where houses intermingle with forests, shrublands or grasslands, that accounted for only about one-quarter of the increase in the number of humans directly exposed to wildfires across the Lower 48 states from 2000 to 2019.</p>
<p>Three-quarters of that 125% increase in exposure was due to fires’ increasingly encroaching on existing communities. The total burned area increased only 38%, but the locations of intense fires near towns and cities put lives at risk.</p>
<p>In California, which was in drought during much of that period, several wildfire catastrophes hit communities that had existed long before 2000. Almost all these catastrophes occurred during <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abae9e">dry, hot, windy conditions</a> that have become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab83a7">increasingly frequent because of climate change</a>.</p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2728/data_animation_legend-min.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=720&fit=crop&dpr=2"><figcaption>The 2018 fire that destroyed Paradise, Calif., began as a small vegetation fire that ignited new fires as the wind blew its embers. NIST</figcaption></figure>
<p>Wildfires <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">in the high mountains</a> in recent decades provide another way to look at the role that rising temperatures play in increasing fire activity.</p>
<p>High mountain forests have few cars, homes and power lines that could spark fires, and humans have historically done little to clear brush there or fight fires that could interfere with natural fire regimes. These regions were long considered too wet and cool to regularly burn. Yet my team’s past research showed <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-fires-are-burning-higher-in-the-mountains-at-unprecedented-rates-its-a-clear-sign-of-climate-change-159699">fires have been burning</a> there at unprecedented rates in recent years, mainly because of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37311-4">warming and drying trends in the Western U.S.</a></p>
<h2>What can communities do to lower the risk?</h2>
<p>Wildfire risk isn’t slowing. Studies have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00299-0">even in conservative scenarios</a>, the amount of area that burns in Western wildfires is projected to grow in the next few decades.</p>
<p>How much these fires grow and how intense they become depends largely on warming trends. Reducing emissions will help slow warming, but the risk is already high. Communities will have to both adapt to more wildfires and take steps to mitigate their impacts.</p>
<p>Developing community-level wildfire response plans, reducing human ignitions of wildfires and improving zoning and building codes can help prevent fires from becoming destructive. Building wildfire shelters in remote communities and ensuring resources are available to the most vulnerable people are also necessary to lessen the adverse societal impacts of wildfires.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207903/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mojtaba Sadegh receives funding from the Joint Fire Science Program and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Nearly 22 million people lived within 3 miles of a US wildfire in the past two decades. A new study tracking their locations flips the script on who is at risk.Mojtaba Sadegh, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.