tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/chinese-space-station-15768/articlesChinese Space Station – The Conversation2024-03-06T17:45:13Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2243872024-03-06T17:45:13Z2024-03-06T17:45:13ZSpacesuits need a major upgrade for the next phase of exploration<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579865/original/file-20240305-18-mik4ri.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3822%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-taps-axiom-space-for-first-artemis-moonwalking-spacesuits/">NASA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Humans have long dreamed of setting foot on the Moon and other planetary bodies such as Mars. Since the 1960s, space travellers have donned suits designed to protect them from the vacuum of space and stepped out into the unknown.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://spacenews.com/polaris-dawn-private-astronaut-mission-slips-to-mid-2024/">the Polaris Dawn mission</a>, which is to include the first spacewalk organised by a private company, has been delayed. This is due to complications with the design and development of a suitable spacesuit. </p>
<p>Moon suits are also one of the key elements of Nasa’s Artemis lunar programme that have yet to be delivered. A report released in November 2023 said that the contractor making the suits is having <a href="https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106256#:%7E:text=To%20develop%20Artemis%20space%20suits,report%20examining%20the%20Artemis%20enterprise.">to revisit aspects of the design provided by Nasa</a>, which could introduce delays.</p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://time.com/5802128/alexei-leonov-spacewalk-obstacles/">the first spacewalk</a>, by the Soviet cosmonaut Alexei Leonov, took place in 1965. Later, <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/the-apollo-program/">12 Nasa astronauts would walk on the lunar surface</a>, between 1969 and 1972, using technology that would be eclipsed by today’s smartphones. So it’s not unreasonable to ask why it can still be difficult to design and build spacesuits to do the same thing.</p>
<p>Much has changed since the Apollo missions planted flags on the Moon. The <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/01/20/us-china-india-japan-and-others-are-rushing-back-to-the-moon.html">geopolitics driving space travel have shifted</a>, and spacesuits are no longer expected to be just a form of protection. Instead, they are a critical way to improve the productivity of astronauts. This involves a rethink of not just the suits themselves, but the technology that supports them.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Crew Dragon approaching the ISS" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579872/original/file-20240305-30-sdnkjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/579872/original/file-20240305-30-sdnkjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579872/original/file-20240305-30-sdnkjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579872/original/file-20240305-30-sdnkjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579872/original/file-20240305-30-sdnkjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579872/original/file-20240305-30-sdnkjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/579872/original/file-20240305-30-sdnkjj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Polaris Dawn mission uses modified version of the Crew Dragon spacecraft to perform the first commercial spacewalk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.nasa.gov/image-article/view-of-spacex-crew-dragon-endeavour-approaching-station/">Nasa</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>An array of powerful telecommunications technologies to connect astronauts with space stations and ground control sits alongside multisensory cameras, temperature readers and proximity sensors in present-day spacesuits.</p>
<p>Situational awareness – understanding key elements in the environment, such as the health of an astronaut – is a core tenet for modern spacesuit design and critical for the operator’s safety. The ability of a suit to track heart rate and other vital signs is important in a vacuum, where levels of oxygen need constant monitoring. </p>
<p>Expectations around the risks astronauts take have changed for the better. And the level of investment it takes to produce a spacesuit necessitates that it can be used for future tasks that may include lunar settlement in the next few decades.</p>
<p>The trade off that engineers must make when incorporating wearable technology like those already mentioned is weight. Will greater situational awareness result in a spacesuit that is too heavy to move in effectively? </p>
<p>When Elon Musk first hinted at challenges with the extravehicular activity spacesuit for Polaris Dawn <a href="https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1745941814165815717">in a presentation to SpaceX employees in January</a>, it was not difficulties with connected technology that he discussed, but of redesigning “the suit so that you actually move around in it”.</p>
<h2>Situational awareness</h2>
<p>However, when talking about mobility in a spacesuit, you need to consider the tasks that you want that mobility to support. </p>
<p>Before the advent of modern spacesuits, Apollo astronauts struggled to carry out missions. When drilling into the surface of the Moon with a hand drill to collect samples, astronauts found it difficult to provide enough downwards force to counteract the Moon’s weaker gravity. It was not until the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0094576522002879">invention of a zero-gravity drill</a>, decades later, that this problem would be addressed.</p>
<p>The current exploration of <a href="https://digital-library.theiet.org/content/books/ce/pbce131e">pneumatic exoskeletons</a>, providing the support necessary for movement in low gravity could be part of a solution. However, newer spacesuits may also need to interface with hardware, like robotic drills that exist outside the suit. This will also necessitate more mobility in spacesuits. </p>
<h2>Working with robots</h2>
<p>Offloading tasks, previously carried out by humans, to robots will be part of the future of space exploration. It’s a primary way that engineers will also be able to enhance the mobility of astronauts in spacesuits.</p>
<p>For example, when an astronaut goes on a spacewalk to inspect the condition of part of a space station and make any possible repairs, they are supported by a robotic arm that ensures they don’t float off into space. While jointed, this arm is rigid and can limit an astronaut’s movement.</p>
<p>An approach currently being explored to extend this range of movement is a climbing robot, that is attached to both the astronaut and the space station, that an individual can control through their spacesuit. This would allow the astronaut to move around the space station faster and with a greater range of movement than before, allowing them to reach and repair hard-to-access areas like corners.</p>
<p>While the eventual hope is that robots themselves can assess any damage to the space station and repair it, due to possible disruptions in normal operations, humans must be ready to step in. Possible disruptions could be natural, like a small meteor shower damaging the robot, or human-made, like hacking carried by a hostile group or state.</p>
<p>For the types of activities we want to accomplish in the future, this human-robot collaboration will be instrumental. Building a base on the Moon, as both <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/four-things-weve-learned-about-nasas-planned-base-camp-on-the-moon-180980589/">the US</a> and <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-attracts-moon-base-partners-outlines-project-timelines/">China</a> plan to do, will involve construction work and drilling, which humans will not be able to accomplish alone. Modern spacesuits will need to provide an interface to work with this new technology, and we can expect the suits to evolve in step with robotics.</p>
<p>The relationship between humans and robots is changing. It will go beyond spacewalks and robots’ previous uses as limited tools, to a situation where they are cooperative partners in space. The objectives of ten or 20 years from now, like building lunar settlements, exploring mineral deposits on the Moon and efficiently repairing space station modules can only be achieved using robotics. </p>
<p>Modern spacesuits will be a key foundation of this collaborative relationship, forming the interface where astronauts and robots can work together to achieve shared goals. So when we do once again leave our footprints on other worlds, we will no longer be alone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224387/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yang Gao has received funding from UKRI, UKSA and ESA on conducting space related research. </span></em></p>The next generation of spacesuit needs to do more than simply protect an astronaut from the vacuum of space.Yang Gao, Professor of Robotics, Head of Centre for Robotics Research, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034732023-04-12T12:11:31Z2023-04-12T12:11:31ZIs the US in a space race against China?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520344/original/file-20230411-24-ym4ttx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C90%2C4898%2C2937&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both the U.S. and China have plans to establish bases on the Moon in the near future.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/two-astronauts-on-the-moon-an-american-flag-in-royalty-free-image/103405591?phrase=two%20flags%20on%20moon&adppopup=true">Caspar Benson/fStop via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Headlines proclaiming the rise of a new “space race” <a href="https://theweek.com/space/1019765/the-new-space-race#:%7E:text=The%20original%20space%20race%20was,with%20a%20new%20competitor%3A%20China.">between the U.S. and China</a> have become common in news coverage following many of the exciting launches in recent years. Experts have pointed to China’s <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/584314-us-china-space-cooperation-is-up-in-the-air-more-than-ever/">rapid advancements</a> in space as evidence of an emerging landscape where China is <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/01/we-better-watch-out-nasa-boss-sounds-alarm-on-chinese-moon-ambitions-00075803">directly competing</a> with the U.S. for supremacy.</p>
<p>This idea of a space race between China and the U.S. sounds convincing given the broader narrative of China’s rise, but how accurate is it? As a professor who <a href="https://faculty.af.edu/esploro/profile/svetla_benitzhak">studies space and international relations</a>, my research aims to quantify the power and capabilities of different nations in space. When I look at various capacities, the data paints a much more complex picture than a tight space race between the U.S. and China. At least for now, the reality looks more like what I call a complex hegemony – one state, the U.S., is still <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-97711-5_14">dominating in key space capabilities</a>, and this lead is further amplified by a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spacepol.2021.101444">strong network of partners</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A rocket taking off." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520346/original/file-20230411-20-tsr0m6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">SpaceX rockets carry hundreds of private satellites into orbit each year from the seven active U.S. spaceports.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-carrying-a-batch-of-56-starlink-news-photo/1249311447?adppopup=true">SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<h2>A clear leader makes for a boring race</h2>
<p>Calling the current situation a race implies that the U.S. and China have roughly equal capabilities in space. But in several key areas, the U.S. is far ahead not only of China, but of all other spacefaring nations combined.</p>
<p>Starting with spending: In 2021, the U.S. space budget was roughly <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/resources/government-space-spending-increases-19-from-2020-to-2021/">US$59.8 billion</a>. China has been investing heavily in space and rocket technology over the last decade and has doubled its spending in the last five years. But with an estimated budget of <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/resources/government-space-spending-increases-19-from-2020-to-2021/">$16.18 billion</a> in 2021, it is still spending less than a third of the U.S. budget.</p>
<p>The U.S. also leads significantly in the number of active satellites. Currently, there are <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/satellite-database">5,465 total operational satellites</a> in orbit around Earth. The U.S. operates 3,433, or 63% of those. In contrast, China has 541.</p>
<p>Similarly, the U.S. has more <a href="https://aerospace.csis.org/spaceports-of-the-world/">active spaceports</a> than China. With <a href="https://aerospace.csis.org/spaceports-of-the-world/">seven operational launch sites at home and abroad</a> and at least <a href="https://www.faa.gov/space/spaceports_by_state">13 additional</a> spaceports <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/worlds-rocket-launch-sites-fullsize.html">in development</a>, the U.S. has more options to launch payloads into various orbits. In contrast, China has only <a href="https://aerospace.csis.org/data/spaceports-of-the-world/">four operational spaceports</a> with <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/worlds-rocket-launch-sites-fullsize.html">two more planned</a>, all located within its own territory.</p>
<h2>Parity with nuance</h2>
<p>While the U.S. may have a clear advantage over China in many areas of space, in some measures, the differences between the two countries are more nuanced.</p>
<p>In 2021, for instance, China attempted <a href="https://www.thespacereport.org/register/the-space-report-2021-quarter-4-pdf-download/">55 orbital launches</a>, four more than the U.S.’s 51. The total numbers may be similar, but the rockets carried very different payloads to orbit. The vast majority – 84% – of Chinese launches had government or military payloads intended mostly for electronic intelligence and optical imaging. Meanwhile, in the U.S., 61% of launches were for nonmilitary, academic or commercial use, predominantly for Earth observation or telecommunications.</p>
<p>Space stations are another area where there are important differences hiding beneath the surface. Since the 1990s, the U.S. has worked with <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/cooperation/index.html">14 other nations</a>, including Russia, to operate the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/facts-and-figures">International Space Station</a>. The ISS is quite large, with 16 modules, and has driven <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/news/iss-20-years-20-breakthroughs">technological and scientific breakthroughs</a>. But the ISS is now 24 years old, and participating nations are planning to <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-provides-updated-international-space-station-transition-plan">retire it in 2030</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram of the Tiangong space station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520345/original/file-20230411-20-xi403n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Construction of China’s Tiangong space station began in 2021, and the small, three-module station opened for research in December 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tiangong_Space_Station_config_2022_EN.jpg#/media/File:Tiangong_Space_Station_config_2022_EN.jpg">Shujianyang/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The Chinese <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/science/tiangong-space-station.html">Tiangong space station</a> is the new kid on the block. Construction was only <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-new-space-station-opens-for-business-in-an-increasingly-competitive-era-of-space-activity-195882">completed in late 2022</a>, and it is much smaller – with only three modules. China has built and launched all of the different parts and remains the sole operator of the station, despite <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/29/c_137213186.htm">having invited others to join</a>.</p>
<p>China is undoubtedly expanding its space capabilities, and in a report published in August 2022, the Pentagon <a href="https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/08/china-could-overtake-us-space-without-urgent-action-report/376261/">predicted that China would surpass U.S. capabilities</a> in space as early as 2045. However, it is unlikely that the U.S. will remain stagnant, as it continues to increase funding for space.</p>
<h2>Allies as force multipliers</h2>
<p>A major point of difference between the U.S. and China is the nature and number of international collaborations. </p>
<p>For decades, NASA has been fruitfully cultivating <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/oiir/nasa-partners-worldwide">international</a> and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/subject/3124/commercial-partners/">commercial</a> partnerships in everything from developing specific space technologies to flying humans into space. The U.S. government has also <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2023/02/spacecom-expands-allied-industy-cooperation-gen-dickinson/">signed 169 space data sharing agreements</a> with 33 states and intergovernmental organizations, 129 with commercial partners and seven with academic institutions.</p>
<p>China also has allies that help with space – most notably <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-26/china-russia-alliance-in-space-stumbles-in-bid-to-surpass-the-us">Russia</a> and members of the <a href="http://www.apsco.int/">Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization</a>, including Iran, Pakistan, Thailand and Turkey. China’s collaborators are, however, fewer in number and have far less developed space capabilities. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man signing a document with a Brazilian and American flag on the desk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/520347/original/file-20230411-28-nwvax6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In just two years, 24 nations, including Brazil, have joined the U.S.-led Artemis Accords. This international agreement outlines the goals of space exploration in the near future.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Assinatura_de_termo_de_coopera%C3%A7%C3%A3o_-_Programa_Artemis_BR_US_(50720570051).jpg#/media/File:Assinatura_de_termo_de_coopera%C3%A7%C3%A3o_-_Programa_Artemis_BR_US_(50720570051).jpg">Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovações/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Efforts to return to the surface of the Moon excellently highlight this difference in ally support and synergy. Both the U.S. and China have plans to send people to the surface of the Moon and to establish lunar bases in the near future. These competing lunar aims are often <a href="https://time.com/longform/race-to-the-moon/">cited as evidence of the space race</a>, but they are very different in terms of partnerships and scope.</p>
<p>In 2019, <a href="https://spacenews.com/china-russia-to-cooperate-on-lunar-orbiter-landing-missions/">Russia and China agreed</a> to jointly go to the Moon by 2028. Russia is contributing its Luna landers and Oryol crewed orbiters, while China is improving its Chang’e robotic spacecraft. Their future International Lunar Research Station is “<a href="https://www.space.com/russia-china-moon-research-station-agreement">open to all interested parties and international partners</a>,” but, to date, no additional countries have committed to the Chinese and Russian effort.</p>
<p>In contrast, since 2020, 24 nations have joined the U.S.-led <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">Artemis Accords</a>. This international agreement outlines shared <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/index.html">principles of cooperation</a> for future space activity and, through the Artemis Program, specifically aims to return people to the Moon by 2025 and establish a Moon base and lunar space station soon after.</p>
<p>In addition to the broad international participation, the Artemis Program has contracted with a staggering <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/solicitations/tipping_points/2020_selections">number of private companies</a> to develop a <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-announces-partners-to-advance-tipping-point-technologies-for-the-moon-mars">range of technologies</a>, from <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-selects-five-us-companies-to-mature-artemis-lander-concepts">lunar landers</a> to <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-icon-advance-lunar-construction-technology-for-moon-missions">lunar construction methods</a> and <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/centennial_challenges/nasa-announces-newest-winners-in-break-the-ice-lunar-challenge.html">more</a>.</p>
<h2>China is not the only game in town</h2>
<p>While China may seem like the main competitor of the U.S. in space, other countries have space capabilities and aspirations that rival those of China.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64002977">India</a> spends billions on space and plans to <a href="https://in.mashable.com/science/44883/india-is-returning-to-the-moon-chandrayaan-3-mission-will-launch-this-year">return to the Moon</a>, possibly <a href="https://www.secretsofuniverse.in/lunar-exploration-mission-isro-jaxa/">with Japan</a>, in the near future. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01252-7">South Korea, Israel, Japan, the United Arab Emirates</a>, <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/turkey-sets-sights-on-moon-mission-in-2023">Turkey</a>, <a href="https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/27263-germany-plans-moon-mission">Germany</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-told-to-aim-for-a-moon-mission/">the European Union</a> are also planning independent lunar missions. Japan has developed impressive technological space capabilities, including rendezvous proximity technology to send a <a href="https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/missions/hayabusa-2/in-depth/">spacecraft to an asteroid and bring samples back to Earth</a>, that rival and even surpass <a href="https://spacenews.com/chinas-shijian-21-spacecraft-docked-with-and-towed-a-dead-satellite/">those of China</a>.</p>
<p>In the past, the space race was about who could reach the stars first and return home. Today, the goal has shifted to surviving and even thriving in the harsh environment of space. I believe it is not surprising that, despite its decisive lead, the U.S. has partnered with others to go to the Moon and beyond. China is doing the same, but on a smaller scale. The picture that emerges is not of a “race” but of complex system with the U.S. as a leader working closely with extensive networks of partners.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203473/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Defense, or of any organization the author is affiliated with, including the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Space Force</span></em></p>China has invested massively in its space capabilities in recent years and is now a major competitor with the US. But according to a space policy expert, the US still dominates space by most measures.Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Air UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1958822022-12-09T13:28:35Z2022-12-09T13:28:35ZChina’s new space station opens for business in an increasingly competitive era of space activity<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499869/original/file-20221208-12532-d6cyhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=865%2C59%2C3539%2C2581&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Three taikonauts rode aboard the Shenzhou 15 mission on their way to China's new Tiangong space station.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-manned-spaceship-shenzhou-15-atop-the-long-march-2f-y15-news-photo/1245233337?phrase=shenzhou%2015&adppopup=true">Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The International Space Station is no longer the only place where humans can live in orbit.</p>
<p>On Nov. 29, 2022, the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/29/world/asia/china-space-launch-astronauts.html">Shenzhou 15 mission launched</a> from China’s Gobi Desert carrying three taikonauts – the Chinese word for astronauts. Six hours later, they reached their destination, China’s recently completed space station, called Tiangong, which means “heavenly palace” in Mandarin. The three taikonauts replaced the existing crew that helped wrap up construction. With this successful mission, China has become just the third nation to operate a permanent space station.</p>
<p>China’s space station is an achievement that solidifies the country’s position alongside the U.S. and Russia as one of the world’s top three space powers. As scholars of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YtgRGx0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">space law</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YnVdvEYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">space policy</a> who lead the Indiana University Ostrom Workshop’s <a href="https://ostromworkshop.indiana.edu/research/space-governance/index.html">Space Governance Program</a>, we have been following the development of the Chinese space station with interest. </p>
<p>Unlike the collaborative, U.S.-led International Space Station, Tiangong is entirely built and run by China. The successful opening of the station is the beginning of some exciting science. But the station also highlights the country’s policy of self-reliance and is an important step for China toward achieving larger space ambitions among a changing landscape of power dynamics in space.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499872/original/file-20221208-17536-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A diagram of the space station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499872/original/file-20221208-17536-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499872/original/file-20221208-17536-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499872/original/file-20221208-17536-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499872/original/file-20221208-17536-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499872/original/file-20221208-17536-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499872/original/file-20221208-17536-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499872/original/file-20221208-17536-p3m533.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Tiangong space station is much smaller than the International Space Station and consists of three modules.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tiangong_Space_Station_config_2022_EN.jpg#/media/File:Tiangong_Space_Station_config_2022_EN.jpg">Shujianyang/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Capabilities of a Chinese station</h2>
<p>The Tiangong space station is the culmination of three decades of work on the <a href="http://en.cmse.gov.cn/aboutcms/">Chinese manned space program</a>. The station is 180 feet (55 meters) long and is <a href="https://www.engineering.com/story/battle-of-the-space-stations-iss-vs-tiangong">comprised of three modules</a> that were launched separately and connected in space. These include one core module where a maximum of six taikonauts can live and two experiment modules for a total of 3,884 cubic feet (110 cubic meters) of space, about one-fifth the size of the International Space Station. The station also has an <a href="https://academic.hep.com.cn/fem/EN/10.15302/J-FEM-2018202">external robotic arm</a>, which can support activities and <a href="http://www.aerospacechina.org/EN/abstract/abstract421.shtml">experiments outside the station</a>, and three docking ports for resupply vehicles and manned spacecraft. </p>
<p>Like China’s aircraft carriers and other spacecraft, Tiangong is <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/chinese-space-station-news.htm">based on a Soviet-era design</a> – it is pretty much a copy of the Soviet Mir space station from the 1980s. But the Tiangong station has been heavily modernized and improved. </p>
<p>The Chinese space station is slated to stay in orbit for 15 years, with plans to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/29/world/china-space-station-astronauts-launch-scn/index.html">send two six-month crewed missions</a> and two cargo missions to it annually. The science experiments have already begun, with a planned study involving <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3198222/chinese-scientists-plan-monkey-reproduction-experiment-space-station">monkey reproduction</a> commencing in the station’s biological test cabinets. Whether the monkeys will cooperate is an entirely different matter.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499875/original/file-20221208-19047-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A person in a space suit outside of a space station." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499875/original/file-20221208-19047-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/499875/original/file-20221208-19047-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499875/original/file-20221208-19047-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499875/original/file-20221208-19047-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499875/original/file-20221208-19047-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499875/original/file-20221208-19047-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/499875/original/file-20221208-19047-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This image, captured from a video feed at the Beijing Aerospace Center on Nov. 17, 2022, shows taikonauts working on the Tiangong station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-screen-image-captured-at-beijing-aerospace-control-news-photo/1244869814?phrase=tiangong&adppopup=true">Xinhua News Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Science and a steppingstone</h2>
<p>The main function of the Tiangong station is to perform <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAzoVdrppHs">research on life in space</a>. There is a particular focus on learning about the growth and development of different types of plants, animals and microorganisms, and there are more than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-03462-5">1,000 experiments planned for the next 10 years</a>. </p>
<p>Tiangong is strictly Chinese made and managed, but China has an open invitation for other nations to collaborate on experiments aboard Tiangong. So far, <a href="http://en.cmse.gov.cn/cooperationexchange/201906/t20190612_44777.html">nine projects from 17 countries have been selected</a>. </p>
<p>Although the new station is small compared to the <a href="https://www.engineering.com/story/battle-of-the-space-stations-iss-vs-tiangong">16 modules of the International Space Station</a>, Tiangong and the science done aboard will help <a href="https://www.space.com/china-five-year-plan-space-exploration-2022">support China’s future space missions</a>. In December 2023, China is planning to launch a new space telescope called Xuntian. This telescope will map stars and supermassive black holes among other projects with a resolution about the same as the Hubble Space Telescope but with a <a href="https://www.space.com/china-space-station-telescope-plans">wider view</a>. The telescope will periodically <a href="https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202207/25/WS62ddd8d3a310fd2b29e6e14a.html">dock with the station</a> for maintenance.</p>
<p>China also has <a href="https://www.space.com/china-five-year-plan-space-exploration-2022">plans to launch multiple missions</a> to Mars and nearby comets and asteroids with the goal of bringing samples back to Earth. And perhaps most notably, China has announced plans to build a <a href="https://www.space.com/china-russia-moon-base-ilrs">joint Moon base</a> with Russia – though no timeline for this mission has been set. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jZ6lAhZnkeM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The three-person crew of taikonauts greets the crew already aboard the Tiangong station in early December 2022.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Astropolitics</h2>
<p>A new era in space is unfolding. The Tiangong station is beginning its life just as the International Space Station, after more than 30 years in orbit, is set to be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/feb/02/international-space-station-will-plummet-to-a-watery-grave-in-2030">decommissioned</a> by 2030. </p>
<p>The International Space Station is the classic example of collaborative ideals in space – even at the height of the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union came together to develop and launch the beginnings of the space station in the early 1990s. By comparison, China and the U.S. have not been so jovial in their orbital dealings.</p>
<p>In the 1990s, when China was still launching U.S. satellites into orbit, concerns emerged that China was <a href="https://hir.harvard.edu/trouble-in-the-stars-the-importance-of-us-china-bilateral-cooperation-in-space/">accidentally acquiring – or stealing – U.S. technology</a>. These concern in part led to the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/112/plaws/publ10/PLAW-112publ10.htm">Wolf Amendment</a>, passed by Congress in 2011, which prohibits NASA from collaborating with China in any capacity. China’s space program was not mature enough to be part of the construction of the International Space Station in the 1990s and early 2000s. By the time China had the ability to contribute to the International Space Station, the Wolf Amendment prevented it from doing so.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen how the map of space collaboration will change in the coming years. The U.S.-led <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/artemisprogram/">Artemis Program</a> that aims to build a self-sustaining habitat on the Moon is open to all nations, and <a href="https://www.state.gov/france-becomes-twentieth-nation-to-sign-the-artemis-accords/">19 countries have joined as partners</a> so far. China has also recently opened its joint Moon mission with Russia to other nations. This was partly driven by <a href="https://time.com/6218389/china-russia-moon-missions/">cooling Chinese-Russian relations</a> but also due to the fact that because of the war in Ukraine, Sweden, France and the European Space Agency canceled planned missions with Russia. </p>
<p>As tensions on Earth rise between China, Russia and the West, and some of that jockeying <a href="https://theconversation.com/space-blocs-the-future-of-international-cooperation-in-space-is-splitting-along-lines-of-power-on-earth-180221">spills over into space</a>, it remains to be seen how the decommissioning of the International Space Station and operation of the Tiangong station will influence the China-U.S. relationship.</p>
<p>An event like the famous handshake between U.S. astronauts and Russian cosmonauts while orbiting Earth in 1975 is a long way off, but collaboration between the U.S. and China could do much to cool tensions on and above the Earth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/195882/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eytan Tepper owns exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the space sector (UFO and ARKX). He is a principal investigator (PI) on grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, receives funding from Micas, and is a co-PI on grants from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. He is affiliated with the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Laval University, and Western University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Shackelford is a principal investigator on grants from the Hewlett Foundation, Carnegie Corporation of New York, National Science Foundation, and the Microsoft Corporation supporting both the Ostrom Workshop and the Indiana University Cybersecurity Clinic.</span></em></p>China has completed construction of the Tiangong space station, and science projects are now underway. The station is an important piece of China’s ambitious plans for space activity in coming years.Eytan Tepper, Visiting Assistant Professor of Space Governance, Indiana UniversityScott Shackelford, Professor of Business Law and Ethics, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1633752021-07-05T11:46:53Z2021-07-05T11:46:53ZTiangong: astronauts are working on China’s new space station – here’s what to expect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409270/original/file-20210701-17-h6w7ib.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C266%2C7414%2C3984&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chinese astronauts Tang Hongbo, Nie Haisheng, and Liu Boming during ceremony before heading to Tiangong.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> ROMAN PILIPEY/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/first-astronauts-blast-off-for-china-new-space-station-tiangong">Three astronauts</a> on China’s new space station have <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/04/world/china-first-space-walk-scn-intl-scli/index.html">just performed</a> the country’s first space walk and are busy configuring the module for future crews. Named Tiangong (“heavenly palace”), the station is the Chinese National Space Agency (CNSA)‘s signature project to develop China’s ambitions for having humans in orbit around Earth for a long amount of time. </p>
<p>In planning since the late 1990s, the Tiangong station’s core module, Tianhe (“heavenly river” and the old Chinese name for the Milky Way), <a href="http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c6811970/content.html">launched</a> on April 29. But it isn’t yet complete. Yang Liwei, chief designer of China’s human spaceflight programme, has <a href="https://twitter.com/CNSAWatcher/status/1405445619125297156">said the astronauts</a> “have a lot of tasks to do after entering the core module. For screws alone, they have over 1,000 to remove”. </p>
<p>Much like the former Russian space station <a href="https://history.nasa.gov/SP-4225/mir/mir.htm">Mir</a> and the <a href="https://www.issnationallab.org/about/iss-timeline/">International Space Station</a>, the entire project is too large to be put into orbit in one launch. Tianhe, weighing 22.5 tonnes, was lofted to an orbit of 400km above Earth on a <a href="https://spacenews.com/long-march-5b-falls-into-indian-ocean-after-world-follows-rocket-reentry/">Long March 5B rocket</a> from the Wenchang launch site on the island of Hainan, China. The Long March 5B is a heavy lift rocket with a thrust in between the SpaceX rockets <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/">Falcon 9</a> and <a href="https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-heavy/">Falcon Heavy</a>.</p>
<p>The core module contains everything needed to keep people alive in space. This includes life support systems, a kitchen, sleeping and sanitation areas, electrical power management and firefighting equipment. To help sustain the three astronauts on their six-day working week, the kitchen is currently well stocked with over 120 different types of food. The core module is also equipped with docking ports. These will enable future modules, astronaut flights and robotic cargo re-supply capsules to dock.</p>
<p>To prepare for Tiangong, China launched two test space stations, Tiangong-1 and Tiangong-2. The first of these, launched in 2011, was visited multiple times by Chinese astronauts, who tested docking procedures with cargo craft. After the station was decommissioned in 2016, CNSA lost contact with it. While the agency was able to track the station, it could not control the re-entry impact point – culminating in a <a href="https://www.space.com/40101-china-space-station-tiangong-1-crashes.html">fiery return</a> to Earth that <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-administrator-statement-on-chinese-rocket-debris">angered the US</a>. </p>
<p>Tiangong-2, launched in 2016, was a shorter-lived test station designed to assess living conditions in orbit, including <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-37700404">growing food</a> and measuring radiation levels. This station had a controlled descent, <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2210536-chinese-space-station-tiangong-2-is-about-to-fall-from-space/">burning up</a> over the Pacific Ocean in 2019.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Artist impression of the core module of Tiangong." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409265/original/file-20210701-21-1505qpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=242%2C0%2C5362%2C3359&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/409265/original/file-20210701-21-1505qpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/409265/original/file-20210701-21-1505qpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/409265/original/file-20210701-21-1505qpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/409265/original/file-20210701-21-1505qpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/409265/original/file-20210701-21-1505qpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/409265/original/file-20210701-21-1505qpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tiangong, once fully assembled. The core module is at centre, with the two laboratory modules attached at the sides.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/shenzhou-manned-space-vessel-direction-coupling-1460515829">Alejo Miranda/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Aside from the core module, the pressurised modules of the current Tiangong space station will consist of two laboratories, Mengtian (“heavenly dreams”) and Wentian (“heavenly quest”), which will be launched over the next few years. The design of each of these laboratory modules will be based on Tiangong-2’s facilities.</p>
<p>Unlike the International Space Station, where the bulk of electrical power to all modules is supplied by large solar arrays on purpose-built gantries, on Tiangong each module launched carries its own solar array. </p>
<p>Once complete, Tiangong will weigh over 60 tonnes, be capable of hosting three astronauts for extended stays in space, and will have the capacity to support future spacewalks and science experiments. These can be mounted both inside the pressurised modules or on deployable racks outside in space.</p>
<h2>Future activities</h2>
<p>International collaboration is a significant part of the project. For example, astronauts from the European Space Agency (Esa) <a href="https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Astronauts/ESA_and_Chinese_astronauts_train_together">trained with</a> Chinese astronauts in ocean survival. In the event that astronauts ever had to leave an orbiting space station and return to Earth quickly, there is a high chance they would land in water and would need to survive until rescue. Esa’s long term goal with such training would be that it will one day enable its astronauts to fly aboard Chinese space missions.</p>
<p>More recently, nine international science experiments have been <a href="https://spacenews.com/international-experiments-selected-to-fly-on-chinese-space-station/">selected</a> by CNSA for installation aboard Tiangong in the coming years. The agency received 42 applications of interest from many different countries. Of those selected, experiments include <a href="https://www.unige.ch/dpnc/en/groups/xin-wu/experiments/polar-2/">POLAR-2</a>, a sensor designed to study the light from gamma ray bursts, which are some of the most powerful explosions in the universe. Another is “Tumours in Space”, a project lead by researchers <a href="https://www.isunet.edu/dr-tricia-larose/">in Norway</a> which will <a href="https://norwegianscitechnews.com/2019/10/tumours-in-space-addresses-questions-on-tumour-development-cancer-risk-of-cosmic-radiation/">look at</a> how the microgravity and radiation environment of space affects the growth of tumours.</p>
<p>With another platform for humans to live long-term in orbit, we hope that the amazing success of the International Space Station will be replicated on the Tiangong station. The experience that the astronauts gain will no doubt be invaluable for planning future lunar and martian exploration efforts. Recently, Russia and China <a href="http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c6812150/content.html">unveiled a roadmap</a> for the International Lunar Research Station. This project will involve numerous robotic lunar orbiters and landers, and will culminate in a human-crewed research facility, either in lunar orbit or on the surface. This project, if successful, could see Chinese and Russian astronauts based on the Moon from the 2030s. </p>
<p>Tiangong is one of a number of notable successes for the Chinese space programme in recent years. These include the first lunar sample-return mission since the 1970s, and the country’s <a href="https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=2020-087A">first robotic lander</a> on the Martian surface, complete with rover, which successfully <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-05/19/c_139956617.htm">touched down</a> in May this year. In the new space race, China is clearly a real contender.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163375/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s space programme is going from strength to strength.Gareth Dorrian, Post Doctoral Research Fellow in Space Science, University of BirminghamIan Whittaker, Senior Lecturer in Physics, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1629732021-06-25T13:03:24Z2021-06-25T13:03:24ZChina is using mythology and sci-fi to sell its space programme to the world<p>On the <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/17/c_1310013455.htm">morning of June 17</a>, China launched its long-awaited Shenzhou-12 spacecraft, carrying three Chinese astronauts – or taikonauts – towards the Tianhe core module. The module itself was launched at the end of April, forming part of the permanent Tiangong space station, which is planned to remain in orbit for the next ten years.</p>
<p>China’s construction of its own space station stems from the nation’s exclusion from the <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202106/1226392.shtml">International Space Station</a>, a result of US concerns over technology transfers that could enhance China’s military capabilities. Undeterred by this, China has forged ahead with its own space programmes and alliances. Since, the country has demonstrated that the Chinese “brand” of space technology is reputable and can hold its own in the international arena.</p>
<p>An impressive track record of remarkable space endeavours is not the only thing that distinguishes China’s space brand from other national players. The government and related organisations have made concerted efforts to establish a unique “Chinese space culture” alongside the country’s advances in space technology. While the target audience for many of these cultural creations remains domestic, China’s space ambitions are directed at global audiences in a variety of ways.</p>
<h2>Legendary beginnings</h2>
<p>Perhaps the most obvious example of this is the naming of these programmes after China’s traditional roots.</p>
<p>The name <em>Tiangong</em> translates as “<a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-05/18/c_139066005.htm">Heavenly Palace</a>”. This was the residence of the deity who holds supreme authority over the universe in Chinese mythology, the Celestial Ruler. The name is particularly fitting for a Chinese space station, which acts as a home in the heavens for the country’s taikonauts. The meaning of <em>Shenzhou</em>, the missions that take taikonauts to space, is “Divine Vessel”, which is also a homophone for an ancient name for China, “Divine Land”. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Traditional Chinese painting of the moon goddess Chang'e." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408373/original/file-20210625-26-wy4p0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408373/original/file-20210625-26-wy4p0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=1142&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408373/original/file-20210625-26-wy4p0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=1142&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408373/original/file-20210625-26-wy4p0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=1142&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408373/original/file-20210625-26-wy4p0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1435&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408373/original/file-20210625-26-wy4p0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408373/original/file-20210625-26-wy4p0t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1435&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Moon Goddess Chang'e.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang%27e#/media/File:The_Moon_Goddess_Chang_E_-_Unidentified_artist,_after_Tang_Yin.jpg">Wikimeda</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>China’s lunar exploration missions, meanwhile, are named after the legendary <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-03/08/c_137878220.htm">Moon goddess Chang’e</a>. The tale goes that Chang’e flew from Earth to the Moon after stealing the elixir of immortality from her husband, Hou Yi.</p>
<p>According to Chinese mythology, Chang’e continues to live on the Moon with her rabbit companion, who spends its time pounding the elixir of immortality in a mortar for the goddess. The rabbit is known as Yutu, or “Jade Rabbit”. China’s two lunar rovers, the second of which became the first to land on the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46724727">far side of the Moon</a> in 2019, are named after it.</p>
<p>A key component of this lunar landing mission was <em>Queqiao</em>, a <a href="http://en.people.cn/n3/2019/0109/c90000-9536171-4.html">communication relay satellite</a>. This was named after the myth of the “Magpie Bridge”, which joins the “Cowherd” and the “Weaver Girl” across the stretch of the Milky Way in a romantic folktale. The satellite acted as a vital bridge of communication between the Chang’e mission components and China’s mission control centre. </p>
<p>The linking of China’s traditional past to its forward-looking space activities serves to strengthen the identity of these space programmes as distinctly Chinese. </p>
<p>In connecting these achievements to the country’s cultural heritage, they are presented not as mere copies of their space power predecessors, but as having developed from national talents and progresses. They also serve as a reminder that while the programmes aim for the furthest reaches of space, China’s future will never be disconnected from its national and cultural roots. </p>
<p>Furthermore, these legendary names are a signal to the international community that space is not the exclusive domain of historical western figures such as Apollo or Artemis, but that it also belongs to the lineage of the Chinese people.</p>
<h2>China’s future in fiction</h2>
<p>Over the last few years, multiple corporations based in China have released space-themed commercial products and promotional campaigns in conjunction with China’s official space organisations, from <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/china-is-evolving-a-distinct-space-culture/">upmarket fashion brands to KFC</a>. But perhaps the most notable promotion of China’s space ambitions is in films.</p>
<p>In 2019, the blockbuster sci-fi film <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-02/15/c_137822420.htm">The Wandering Earth</a> was released. The film was well received, and was publicised by the state’s international media platforms as a must-see. </p>
<p>Director Frant Gwo <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/wandering-earth-director-making-chinas-first-sci-fi-blockbuster-1187681/">has spoken about</a> the importance of the message behind the film, claiming that China’s way of thinking about space is vastly different from US ideologies. According to Gwo, while the US dreams of eventually leaving the Earth to move to other planets, the Chinese space dream is to improve life on Earth through the use of space resources. The film promotes the idea that we mustn’t try to flee our planet, but instead, we must strive to protect it.</p>
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</figure>
<p>While most space-themed commercial products remain aimed at a domestic market, Chinese sci-fi is becoming increasingly popular abroad. Books such as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/03/magazine/ken-liu-three-body-problem-chinese-science-fiction.html">The Three Body Problem</a> by Liu Cixin, who wrote the short story which The Wandering Earth was adapted from, Folding Beijing by Hao Jingfang, which is also being <a href="https://variety.com/2021/film/asia/chinese-sci-fi-film-folding-city-to-shoot-this-year-1234962940/">adapted for the screen</a>, and <a href="https://www.waterstones.com/book/the-redemption-of-time/baoshu/ken-liu/9781788542203">The Redemption of Time</a> by Baoshu have all succeeded as translations. </p>
<p>Recognised by politicians as a potentially powerful tool for promoting state-approved narratives, government bodies have encouraged China’s sci-fi filmmakers to <a href="http://www.chinafilm.gov.cn/chinafilm/contents/141/2533.shtml">incorporate narratives</a> that fit with the regime’s wider ideological and technological ambitions. </p>
<p>The fantasy aspect of sci-fi may explain why the genre is being internationally promoted first over other commercial products that feature imagery of actual Chinese space missions. Unlike China’s increasing capabilities in space, which are <a href="https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2021/04/14/china-aims-to-weaponize-space-says-intel-community-report/">viewed as a threat</a> by the US, the country’s fictional space developments pose no real-life risk. Able to incorporate the backdrop of a technologically powerful China into entertaining and compelling narratives, such stories allow foreign audiences to engage with the idea of China as a space power without the kind of political discourse that surrounds its real space activities. </p>
<p>Eventually, a foreign audience may begin to grow more comfortable with the notion of China as a technological world leader. And this, in turn, may cultivate an interest in the activities of the Chinese national space programme.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Molly Silk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s space culture is unique and deeply rooted in the country’s traditions.Molly Silk, PhD Candidate, Chinese Space Policy, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1603892021-05-13T15:58:28Z2021-05-13T15:58:28ZTiangong: China may gain a monopoly on space stations - here’s what to expect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/400250/original/file-20210512-13-kdm6zd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C62%2C6000%2C3296&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Artist's impression of Tiangong,</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/3d-model-chinese-space-station-tiangong1-740935645"> Alejo Miranda/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>China launched Tianhe-1, the first and main module of a permanent orbiting space station called <a href="https://www.britannica.com/technology/Tiangong">Tiangong (Heavenly Palace 天 宫)</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/china-launches-first-tiangong-space-station-module/a-57369206">on April 29</a>. Two additional science modules (Wentian and Mengtian) will follow in 2022 in a series of missions that will complete the station and allow it to start operations.</p>
<p>While the station is not China’s first – the country has already <a href="https://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/china-national-space-administration/chinas-tianzhou-1-docks-tiangong-2-space-station/">launched two</a> – the modular design is new. It replicates the International Space Station (ISS), from which <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/why-china-banned-iss-station-1587708">China was excluded</a>.</p>
<p>There are <a href="https://chinapower.csis.org/chinese-space-station">many reasons for China</a> to invest in this costly and technologically challenging project. One is to conduct scientific research and make medical, environmental and technological discoveries. But there are also other possible motivations, such as <a href="https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/commercial-space-economy/">commercial gains</a> and prestige.</p>
<p>That said, Tiangong <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/china-is-set-to-launch-first-module-of-massive-space-station1/">does not aim to compete</a> with the ISS. The Chinese station will be smaller and similar in design and size to the former <a href="https://theconversation.com/mir-set-a-precedent-for-collaboration-in-space-but-its-legacy-is-now-at-risk-54871">Soviet Mir</a> space station, meaning it will have limited capacity for astronauts (three versus six on ISS). </p>
<p>After all, it doesn’t have as much money behind it as the ISS and there are not as many countries involved. If anything can be called the UN in space, it is the ISS, which has as collaborators former cold war enemies (US and Russia) and old friends (Japan, Canada and Europe). Over its two decades and counting of service, the only permanent human outpost in space has hosted about 250 astronauts from 19 different countries, carrying out <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/facts-and-figures">hundreds of spacewalks</a> and thousands of scientific experiments.</p>
<p>But the ISS is coming to its natural end. It’s scheduled to be decommissioned after 2024 to leave place for <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/gateway">the Lunar Gateway</a>, a small outpost that will orbit the Moon. This is an international initiative part of the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/">US-led Artemis Programme</a> that again sees China excluded. </p>
<h2>Toward a Chinese monopoly?</h2>
<p>Until the gateway is launched, however, Tiangong – which will be placed in lower Earth orbit and have an expected life of 15 years – will probably remain the only functioning space station. Some worry this makes it a
<a href="https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2021-Unclassified-Report.pdf">security threat</a>, arguing its <a href="https://eurasiantimes.com/experts-fear-china-could-use-its-new-space-station-for-military-use-trigger-new-space-race">science modules could be easily converted </a> for military purposes, such as spying on countries. But it doesn’t have to be this way and, if things go as planned, it won’t be. </p>
<p>China may use this opportunity to win back trust and attract international collaboration. This may be particularly important given Nasa’s criticism following the recent Chinese <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-administrator-statement-on-chinese-rocket-debris">out-of-control rocket that plunged into the Indian Ocean</a>. There are signs the country is trying to be more open, having already declared Tiangong will <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/29/c_137213340.htm">be open to host non-Chinese crews and science projects</a>. Astronauts from Europe’s space agency, Esa, have in fact <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2017-08/22/content_30938818.htm">begun training</a> with Chinese “taikonauts”, and international projects <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/documents/doc/psa/hsti/CSS_1stAO/1stAO_FinSelResults.pdf">have been included</a> in the station’s first approved batch of selected experiments. </p>
<p>Tiangong might not remain alone for long either. <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/study-input-informs-nasa-course-for-a-vibrant-future-commercial-space-economy">Supported by Nasa</a>, private corporations have started designing their own orbital modules, from Bigelow Aerospace’s <a href="https://bigelowaerospace.com/pages/b330/">inflatable habitat B330</a> to the commercial laboratory and residential infrastructure <a href="https://www.axiomspace.com/axiom-station">built by Axiom</a>. Even <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-hiring-orbital-habitat-developer.html">Blue Origin</a> has shown interest in building a space station. The Russians seem to like the idea, too – they already have plans for a <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/satellites/a14471796/luxury-hotel-iss/?src=socialflowTW">luxury space hotel</a>.</p>
<p>What’s more, the already extended ISS lifespan may be further prolonged, although there are <a href="https://oiir.hq.nasa.gov/asap/documents/2010_ASAP_Annual_Report.pdf">many issues</a> surrounding its <a href="https://www.space.com/how-to-destroy-a-space-station-safely">end date</a>.</p>
<h2>The Lunar Gateway</h2>
<p>Tiangong may not be alone for long, however, as the Lunar Gateway will be launched eventually. In its basic conception, the Lunar Gateway will serve as a science laboratory and short-term habitation module. It will then act as a hub, allowing for spacecraft and rovers to resupply during their multiple trips to the Moon. The first launch is planned as early as May 2024 with <a href="https://spacenews.com/nasa-selects-falcon-heavy-to-launch-first-gateway-elements">SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket</a>, taking the essential modules. It should be operational a few years later.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of the Lunar Gateway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399458/original/file-20210507-19-s0ycq5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399458/original/file-20210507-19-s0ycq5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399458/original/file-20210507-19-s0ycq5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399458/original/file-20210507-19-s0ycq5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399458/original/file-20210507-19-s0ycq5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399458/original/file-20210507-19-s0ycq5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399458/original/file-20210507-19-s0ycq5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Lunar Gateway.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Compared to the ISS, the Gateway will be smaller and more nimble. Of the original ISS members, only four (US, Europe, Japan and Canada) are part of the Gateway.</p>
<p>For now, Russia <a href="https://spacenews.com/russia-skeptical-about-participating-in-lunar-gateway/">has not joined</a>, due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/artemis-accords-why-many-countries-are-refusing-to-sign-moon-exploration-agreement-148134">the controversies</a> surrounding the Artemis programme, which many countries believe is too US-centric.</p>
<p>This is another opportunity for China. It has already started collaborating with other countries on recent space projects. More is coming. In March 2021, <a href="http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/n6758823/n6758838/c6811372/content.html">it signed an agreement</a> with Russia’s space agency Roscosmos to build a joint Russian-Chinese research facility on the Moon. Having lost its monopoly for manned flights to the ISS due to the successful SpaceX launch in 2020, Russia seems <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/03/09/planetary-pact-china-and-russia-to-launch-lunar-space-station-a73187">keen to keep its options</a> open for what concerns lunar projects.</p>
<p>Ultimately, space is both challenging and expensive. While it is a way for many countries to show dominance, cooperation has already proved to be more effective than lone endeavours: if anything, the ISS is the best proof that. We know that space exploration can also defuse tensions on the ground, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-handshake-in-space-changed-us-russia-relations-how-long-will-it-last-44846">as it did during the cold war</a>. </p>
<p>China’s taking a leading role in the new space race could have a similarly positive effect – especially if the country shows goodwill in helping address a growing security problem in low Earth orbit: <a href="https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/About_space_debris">how to get rid of space junk</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffi Paladini does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China’s leading role in the new space race could have a positive effect on geopolitics and science alike.Steffi Paladini, Reader in Economics & Global Security, Birmingham City UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1604562021-05-10T19:50:14Z2021-05-10T19:50:14ZChina’s Tiangong space station: what it is, what it’s for, and how to see it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399679/original/file-20210510-23-1cg6cdu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C0%2C1833%2C1148&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">China Manned Space Engineering Office</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China’s space program is making impressive progress. The country only launched its <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhou_5">first crewed flight</a> in 2003, more than 40 years after the Soviet Union’s Yuri Gagarin <a href="https://theconversation.com/yuri-gagarins-boomerang-the-tale-of-the-first-person-to-return-from-space-and-his-brief-encounter-with-aussie-culture-157043">became the first human in space</a>. China’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1">first Mars mission</a> was in 2020, half a century after the US Mariner 9 probe flew past the red planet.</p>
<p>But the rising Asian superpower is catching up fast: flying missions to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-reasons-india-china-and-other-nations-plan-to-travel-to-the-moon-87589">Moon</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-chinese-mars-lander-how-zhurong-will-attempt-to-touch-down-on-the-red-planet-159827">Mars</a>; launching heavy-lift rockets; building a new <a href="https://www.sciencetimes.com/articles/30782/20210421/chinas-new-space-telescope-300-times-greater-field-view-hubble.htm">space telescope</a> set to fly in 2024; and, most recently, putting the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3131540/lift-chinas-tiangong-space-station-ambitions">first piece</a> of the Tiangong space station (the name means <em>Heavenly Palace</em>) into orbit.</p>
<h2>What is the Tiangong space station?</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-04/29/c_139914454.htm">Tiangong</a> is the successor to China’s Tiangong-1 and Tiangong-2 space laboratories, launched in 2011 and 2016, respectively. It will be built on a modular design, similar to the International Space Station operated by the United States, Russia, Japan, Canada and the European Space Agency. When complete, Tiangong will consist of a core module attached to two laboratories with a combined weight of nearly 70 tonnes. </p>
<p>The core capsule, named Tianhe (<em>Harmony of Heavens</em>), is about the size of a bus. Containing life support and control systems, this core will be the station’s living quarters. At 22.5 tonnes, the Tianhe capsule is the biggest and heaviest spacecraft China has ever constructed.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399685/original/file-20210510-13-pmke4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399685/original/file-20210510-13-pmke4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/399685/original/file-20210510-13-pmke4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399685/original/file-20210510-13-pmke4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399685/original/file-20210510-13-pmke4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399685/original/file-20210510-13-pmke4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399685/original/file-20210510-13-pmke4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/399685/original/file-20210510-13-pmke4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Tianhe module will form the core of the space station, with other modules to be added later to increase the size of the station and make more experiments possible.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Chinese_Space_Station.png">Saggitarius A / Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The capsule will be central to the space station’s future operations. In 2022, two slightly smaller modules are expected to join Tianhe to extend the space station and make it possible to carry out various scientific and technological experiments. Ultimately, the station will include 14 internal experiment racks and 50 external ports for studies of the space environment. </p>
<p>Tianhe will be just one-fifth the size of the International Space Station, and will host up to three crew members at a time. The first three “taikonauts” (as Chinese astronauts are often known) are expected to take up residence in June.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-live-in-space-what-weve-learned-from-20-years-of-the-international-space-station-144851">How to live in space: what we've learned from 20 years of the International Space Station</a>
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<h2>A troubled launch</h2>
<p>Tianhe was launched from China’s Hainan island on April 29 aboard a Long March 5B rocket. </p>
<p>These rockets have one core stage and four boosters, each of which is nearly 28 metres tall - the height of a nine-storey building - and more than 3 metres wide. The Long March 5B weighs about 850 tonnes when fully fuelled, and can lift a 25-tonne payload into low Earth orbit.</p>
<p>During the Tianhe launch, the gigantic core stage of the rocket – weighing around 20 tonnes – spun out of control, eventually splashing down more than a week later in the Indian Ocean. The absence of a control system for the return of the rocket to Earth has raised criticism from the international community. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-giant-piece-of-space-junk-is-hurtling-towards-earth-heres-how-worried-you-should-be-160254">A giant piece of space junk is hurtling towards Earth. Here's how worried you should be</a>
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<p>However, these rockets are a key element of China’s short-term ambitions in space. They are planned to be used to deliver modules and crew to Tiangong, as well as launching exploratory probes to the Moon and eventually Mars.</p>
<p>Despite leaving behind an enormous hunk of space junk, Tianhe made it safely to orbit. An hour and 13 minutes after launch, its solar panels started operating and the module powered up.</p>
<h2>Completion and future</h2>
<p>Tianhe is now sitting in low-Earth orbit (about 400km above the ground), waiting for the first of the ten scheduled supply flights over the next 18 months that it will take to complete the Tiangong station. </p>
<p>A pair of experiment modules named Wentian (<em>Quest for Heavens</em>) and Mengtian (<em>Dreaming of Heavens</em>) are planned for launch in 2022. Although the station is being built by China alone, nine other nations have already signed on to fly experiments aboard Tiangong.</p>
<h2>How to see the Tiangong space station</h2>
<p>Tianhe is already visible with the naked eye, if you know where and when to look. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/tZQD43vwAyc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A video shot from New Zealand shows the tumbling chunk of rocket from Tianhe’s launch, followed by the bright dot of the space station module itself.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To find out when the space station might be visible from where you are, you can check websites such as <a href="https://www.n2yo.com/satellite/?s=48274">n2yo.com</a>, which show you the station’s current location and its predicted path for the next 10 days. Note that these predictions are based on models that can change quite quickly, because the space station is slowly falling in its orbit and periodically boosts itself back up to higher altitudes.</p>
<p>The station orbits Earth every 91 minutes. Once you find the time of the station’s next pass over your location (at night - you won’t be able to see it in the daytime), check the direction it will be coming from, find yourself a dark spot away from bright lights, and look out for a tiny, fast-moving spark of light trailing across the heavens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160456/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paulo de Souza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Tiangong space station is set to become a second long-term habitat for humans in orbit around Earth.Paulo de Souza, Professor, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1602542021-05-04T08:45:29Z2021-05-04T08:45:29ZA giant piece of space junk is hurtling towards Earth. Here’s how worried you should be<p>A large piece of space debris, possibly weighing several tonnes, is currently on an uncontrolled reentry phase (that’s space speak for “out of control”), and parts of it are <a href="https://spacenews.com/huge-rocket-looks-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-following-chinese-space-station-launch">expected to crash down to Earth</a> over the next few weeks. </p>
<p>If that isn’t worrying enough, it is impossible to predict exactly where the pieces that don’t burn up in the atmosphere might land. Given the object’s <a href="https://orbit.ing-now.com/satellite/48275/2021-035b/cz-5b/">orbit</a>, the possible landing points are <a href="https://spacenews.com/huge-rocket-looks-set-for-uncontrolled-reentry-following-chinese-space-station-launch/">anywhere</a> in a band of latitudes “a little farther north than New York, Madrid and Beijing and as far south as southern Chile and Wellington, New Zealand”. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398587/original/file-20210504-23-l3cdfx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Altitude chart" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398587/original/file-20210504-23-l3cdfx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/398587/original/file-20210504-23-l3cdfx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398587/original/file-20210504-23-l3cdfx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398587/original/file-20210504-23-l3cdfx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398587/original/file-20210504-23-l3cdfx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398587/original/file-20210504-23-l3cdfx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/398587/original/file-20210504-23-l3cdfx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Changing altitude of the Long March 5B rocket now in uncontrolled descent back to Earth.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">orbit.ing-now.com</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The debris is part of the Long March 5B rocket that recently successfully launched China’s first module for its proposed space station. The incident comes roughly a year after another similar Chinese rocket <a href="https://weather.com/news/news/2020-05-12-pieces-of-a-chinese-rocket-fell-uncontrollably-to-earth">fell to Earth</a>, landing in the Atlantic Ocean but not before it reportedly left a trail of debris in the African nation of Cote D'Ivoire. </p>
<p>At the time, experts noted this was one of the largest pieces of human-made debris ever to fall to Earth. We cannot say with certainty what fate awaits this latest piece of space junk.</p>
<h2>Litter from space</h2>
<p>Australia already holds the record in the category of “who can be hit by the biggest piece of space junk”. In 1979, the 77-tonne US space station SkyLab <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-12/four-decades-on-from-skylabs-descent-from-space/11249626">disintegrated over Western Australia</a>, peppering the area around the southern coastal town of Esperance with fragments. </p>
<p>At the time, the event was met with with excitement and a sense of lightheartedness, and many pieces were collected by space enthusiasts. Esperance shire council flippantly issued NASA with a <a href="https://tracesmagazine.com.au/2018/04/when-western-australia-fined-nasa/">fine for littering</a>, and a US radio station later raised enough money to pay the debt.</p>
<p>Although there have been no recorded deaths or serious injuries from people being hit by space debris, that’s no reason to think it’s not dangerous. Just one year before SkyLab’s demise, a Soviet remote sensing (spy) satellite, Cosmos 954, <a href="https://www.amusingplanet.com/2020/05/cosmos-954-nuke-that-fell-from-space.html">plummeted into a barren region</a> of Canada’s Northwest Territories, spreading radioactive debris over several hundred square kilometres. </p>
<p>With the Cold War at its height, the sensitivity of the nuclear technology on board Cosmos 954 led to an unfortunate delay in locating and cleaning up the wreckage, because of the distrust between the Soviet Union and the Canadian/US recovery effort.</p>
<p>The clean-up operation took months but located only a portion of the debris. Canada billed the Soviet Union more than C$6 million, having spent millions more, but was ultimately paid only C$3 million.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trash-or-treasure-a-lot-of-space-debris-is-junk-but-some-is-precious-heritage-82832">Trash or treasure? A lot of space debris is junk, but some is precious heritage</a>
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<p>Since the late 1970s, pieces of space debris have fallen to Earth regularly and are viewed with increasing concern. Of course, more than 70% of Earth is covered by oceans, and only a minuscule fraction of the remaining 30% is covered by your house. But for anyone falling foul of the extremely long odds, the consequences would be truly disastrous.</p>
<p>It was just a quirk of fate that Cosmos 954 did not land on Toronto or Quebec City, where the radioactive fallout would have necessitated a large-scale evacuation. In 2007, pieces of debris from a Russian satellite <a href="https://en.mercopress.com/2007/03/28/lan-chile-airbus-has-near-miss-from-russian-space-junk">narrowly missed a Chilean passenger plane</a> flying between Santiago and Auckland. As we send more objects into space, the chances of a calamitous crash-landing will only increase.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-satellites-just-avoided-a-head-on-smash-how-close-did-they-come-to-disaster-130794">Two satellites just avoided a head-on smash. How close did they come to disaster?</a>
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<h2>Who pays to clean up the mess, anyway?</h2>
<p>International law sets out a compensation regime that would apply in many circumstances of damage on Earth, as well as when satellites <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-how-big-your-laser-is-its-how-you-use-it-space-law-is-an-important-part-of-the-fight-against-space-debris-158790">collide in space</a>. The <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/gares/ARES_26_2777E.pdf">1972 Liability Convention</a>, a UN treaty, imposes liability on “launching states” for damage caused by their space objects, which includes an absolute liability regime when they crash to Earth as debris. </p>
<p>In the case of the Long March 5B, this would impose potential liability on China. The treaty has only been invoked once before (<a href="https://www.jaxa.jp/library/space_law/chapter_3/3-2-2-1_e.html">for the Cosmos 954 incident</a>) and therefore may not be regarded as a powerful disincentive. However, it is likely to come into play in the future in a more crowded space environment, and with more uncontrolled reentries. Of course, this legal framework applies only after the damage occurs. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-not-how-big-your-laser-is-its-how-you-use-it-space-law-is-an-important-part-of-the-fight-against-space-debris-158790">It's not how big your laser is, it's how you use it: space law is an important part of the fight against space debris</a>
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<p>Other international guidelines regarding <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/publications/st_space_49E.pdf">debris mitigation</a> and <a href="https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/topics/long-term-sustainability-of-outer-space-activities.html">long-term sustainability of space activities</a> set out voluntary standards intended to limit the probability of collisions in space, and minimise the breakup of satellites either during or after their missions. </p>
<p>Some satellites can be moved into a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graveyard_orbit">graveyard orbit</a> at the end of their operational life. While this works well for certain specific orbits at a relatively high altitude, it is impractical and hazardous to start moving the vast majority of satellites around between orbital planes. Most of the millions of pieces of space junk are destined either to orbit in an uncontrollable manner for many years or, if they are in low Earth orbit, to gradually descend towards the Earth, hopefully burning up in the atmosphere before contact with terra firma. </p>
<p>A globally coordinated space traffic management system will be vital to avoid collisions that would result in loss of control of satellites, leaving them to tumble helplessly in orbit or fall back to Earth.</p>
<p>Comprehensively tracking every satellite’s movement and functionality is even harder than it sounds, because it would inevitably require countries to be willing to share information they often currently regard as confidential matters of national security.</p>
<p>But, ultimately, global cooperation is essential if we are to avoid an unsustainable future for our space activities. In the meantime, don’t forget to gaze upwards every now and then — you might spot some of the most spectacular litter on the planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160254/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven Freeland is a Director of the International Institute of Space Law.</span></em></p>China’s Long March 5B rocket, after a successful blast-off in April to deliver a space station module, is now on track to crash-land somewhere with a latitude between New York and New Zealand.Steven Freeland, Professorial Fellow, Bond University / Emeritus Professor of International Law, Western Sydney University, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/660722016-09-26T14:12:02Z2016-09-26T14:12:02ZCrashing space station shows why China must start to collaborate in orbit<p>China launched the second vehicle in its “Tiangong” (meaning “Heavenly palace”) programme to construct a space station in early September. Despite the success of the launch, the announcement was overshadowed by the <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-09/14/c_135687885.htm">acknowledgement</a> that the prototype module Tiangong-1 – which was always due to be replaced – is out of control and will, almost certainly, crash back down to Earth in late 2017.</p>
<p>The Chinese Space Agency revealed its plans to build a space station in 2007, and since then has made great progress towards achieving its goal. Tiangong-1 was unmanned, but was involved in three separate docking events with the Shenzhou transport vessel. Schenzhou 9 and 10 carried the first (Liu Yang) and second (Wang Yaping) Chinese female astronauts.</p>
<p>Tiangong-1 operated for its full two-year lifespan. The original programme suggested it would go through a planned de-orbiting prior to controlled Earth re-entry. The operation was extended for a further two years. There were no additional trips to the spaceship, and no news of what the purpose of its extended lifetime was – apart from a test of the space worthiness of components. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Tiangong-1.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">TMRO/youtube</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In March 2016, the Chinese Space Agency announced that Tiangong-1 had come to the end of its life, and also revealed that they had lost communication links with the satellite. In mid-September, the Chinese Manned Space Engineering (CMSE) Office confirmed that they were no longer able to control the satellite’s orbit.</p>
<h2>Calculating the risks</h2>
<p>The announcement from CMSE came as no surprise to those working with satellites: all spacecraft in orbit around Earth are tracked, both by government agencies and enthusiasts among the public. It has been clear since the beginning of the year that Tiangong-1 <a href="https://theconversation.com/amateur-astronomers-say-chinese-space-station-could-crash-to-earth-are-they-right-62583">was not following its planned trajectory</a> – and calculations now predict that it will fall to Earth in 2017. Although de-orbiting of the spacecraft will not be controlled, according to CMSE most of it will burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere, and there is little chance of flaming debris falling on populated areas.</p>
<p>This reassurance has not been accepted without comment. It is predicted that debris will land anywhere between 43° north and 43° north south of the equator, <a href="https://www.academia.edu/2289822/The_world_by_latitudes_A_global_analysis_of_human_population_development_level_and_environment_across_the_north-south_axis_over_the_past_half_century">a large swathe of the globe in which almost 90% of human population resides</a>. The odds of a specific person being hit are very low, but the chance of someone being hit are <a href="http://phys.org/news/2016-09-doomed-tiangong-chinese-space-station.html">relatively high, about 1 in 3,200</a>. Eight tonnes of burning metal will certainly also be observable in the sky – and plenty of observers will track the spacecraft, even if its final entry point will not be known until entry occurs.</p>
<p>That said, we have survived far greater objects crashing to Earth in the past. The 150-tonne MIR space station burnt up in 2001 over the Pacific Ocean. This didn’t harm anyone but resulted only in a few fragments falling down. Similarly, the 77-tonne Skylab re-entered 1979 over the Indian Ocean without causing any damage.</p>
<h2>Isolated nation</h2>
<p>One issue highlighted by Tiangong-1 is the Chinese Space programme, which operates almost completely independently of other space agencies. While it is often good to have competition – because that is what drives innovation and achievement – there are areas where international cooperation is important. Although international cooperation may not have prevented the problems with Tiangong 1, better appreciation of technical developments, including communications, made by all users of the space environment, can only help to raise the level of technical advance by all. Big collaborations are likely to lead to fewer problems, and when there is a problem, collaborative expertise can help solve it more easily.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">We survived MIR crashing – and it was way bigger.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://history.nasa.gov/SP-4225/sts86/photo/sts-86-photo-65.htm">NASA</a></span>
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<p>There is a clue to one of the great successes of the International Space Station in its name. Even though political relationships between the US and Russia are frosty at times, the ISS acts as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-handshake-in-space-changed-us-russia-relations-how-long-will-it-last-44846">major diplomatic link between the two nations</a>. It would be wonderful if a similar bridge could be built with China. Unfortunately, a Decree by the US Congress in 2011 banned US scientists from bilateral collaboration with their Chinese counterparts, and it would take presidential intervention to set this aside. But the American political situation currently suggests such intervention is unlikely in the near future.</p>
<p>There is hope, though, that the European Space Agency and RosCosmos (the Russian Space Agency) could facilitate access by China to the ISS: a <a href="http://www.space.com/29671-china-nasa-space-station-cooperation.html">collaborative agreement between ESA and the CSA signed in 2014</a> set up several working groups to explore areas of common interest to the space agencies. If one of the Schenzhou spacecraft that serviced the Tiangong-1 space station could dock at the ISS (through agreement with ESA and RosCosmos), then the scientific and engineering achievement may pave the way for diplomatic and political negotiation.</p>
<p>Another issue raised by the incident is the much-debated subject of <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-owns-space-us-asteroid-mining-act-is-dangerous-and-potentially-illegal-51073">who owns space</a>. Who is responsible when something goes wrong? The bottom line is, of course, who pays? The United Nations has an Office of Outer Space Affairs in which specialists in space law have drawn up treaties to cover such eventualities – but these are, by and large, designed to cover government responsibilities. But as space becomes ever more accessible, and tourism and resource exploitation led by private enterprise move closer to reality, <a href="https://theconversation.com/spacex-explosion-shows-why-we-must-slow-down-private-space-exploration-until-we-rewrite-law-65019">existing laws and treaties are inadequate</a>. It is surely time for a major reappraisal of space governance, in the way that the <a href="http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf">United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea</a> is regularly reviewed.</p>
<p>Let’s hope that the prospect of burning debris from Tiangong-1 raining down on Earth will herald a new area of cooperation between space agencies, a new set of treaties on space law – and a real prospect for truly international space exploration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/66072/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Monica Grady works for the Open University and receives funding from The EU Horizon 2020 program and the STFC. She is a Trustee of Lunar mission One.</span></em></p>We don’t know where Tiangong-1 will land but the risk of someone being hit is about 1 in 3,200.Monica Grady, Professor of Planetary and Space Sciences, The Open UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/625832016-07-18T15:02:30Z2016-07-18T15:02:30ZAmateur astronomers say Chinese space station could crash to Earth – are they right?<p>China’s first space station, Tiangong-1, has hit the headlines after satellite trackers suggested <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/china-space-station-tiangong-1-could-secretly-be-hurtling-towards-earth-astronomers-say-a7132401.html">it might be out of control</a> and about to crash to Earth – potentially <a href="http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/529372/Chinese-space-station-crash-Tiangong-1-reentry-collision-fear-China">into a populated area</a>. </p>
<p>So should we worry? If China had indeed lost control of the module, it is not certain that it would end up in a trajectory that would make it crash into Earth anytime soon. But even if it does, <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1263034/out-of-control-chinese-satellite-could-smash-into-populated-area-experts-claim/">it will not create an enormous fireball</a>, which you may think and would <a href="https://theconversation.com/russian-spacecraft-falling-to-earth-poses-no-danger-we-have-survived-bigger-objects-41015">not be likely to cause widespread damage</a>.</p>
<p>The event is nevertheless extremely interesting as it demonstrates the increasing role of amateur astronomers in keeping an eye on space missions – even the most secretive ones.</p>
<p>China is just one of many nations currently exploring space using manned and unmanned space probes. In 2011, China successfully deployed its first space station “Tiangong” into orbit around Earth at an altitude of 350-400km. This space laboratory module <a href="http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraftDisplay.do?id=2011-053A">weighs 8.5 tonnes is 12 metres long with a diameter of three metres</a>. That is fairly small, in fact it is smaller than the <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/skylab/missions/skylab_manned.html">American Skylab station</a> launched in 1973.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/79916/original/image-20150430-6271-ixn98t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=759&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We survived MIR crashing … and it was way bigger!</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://history.nasa.gov/SP-4225/sts86/photo/sts-86-photo-65.htm">NASA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Tiangong had an estimated lifetime of two years. Its main purpose was to test important docking manoeuvres for resupplying and operating a space station. During its lifetime, two Chinese Shenzhou missions (9 and 10) visited the space station, each consisting of three crew members including a female “taikonaut”. </p>
<h2>Status of Tiangong</h2>
<p>Just like the International Space Station, Tiangong can be easily observed from Earth as it is very bright and moves quickly across the sky. Therefore, amateur astronomers regularly observe it and other such objects. Even though Tiangong is many times smaller than the ISS and cannot be easily be seen in high resolution, the path and its brightness can still be measured reliably. </p>
<p>This information can help determine its orbit and rotation, giving an indication of the health of the space station. Amateur astronomer <a href="http://www.n2yo.com/satellite-news/Chinese-satellite-freewheeling-through-space-could-fall-back-to-earth-any-minute/3550">Thomas Dorman, an experienced satellite tracker</a> from Texas, US, suggested the Chinese had lost control of Tiangong when he noticed the space station was rotating a certain way.</p>
<p>Tiangong was in sleep mode as it was never intended to be revisited beyond 2013. In fact, the <a href="http://en.cmse.gov.cn/">China Manned Space Engineering</a> office stated the space station had ended its mission and terminated data services in March this year. The organisation also reported that their <a href="http://www.space.com/33140-china-tiangong-1-space-lab-falling-to-earth.html">telemetry service had failed</a>, making their space station effectively impossible to contact. The latest reports from some satellite trackers suggest it might now be on a trajectory to crash into Earth. However, Dorman also suggested that China could still awaken Tiangong for a coordinated reentry and may be saving its remaining fuel for this.</p>
<p>The lack of a statement from the China Manned Space Engineering office has been interpreted by some as an additional indication that the space station is indeed about to burn up in our atmosphere. However, this doesn’t mean that it is. <a href="https://celestrak.com/webmaster.asp">T.S. Kelso</a>, a senior research astrodynamicist at the <a href="http://www.centerforspace.com/">Center for Space Standards & Innovation </a> in the US, stated that the station was shifted into a higher orbit at the start of this year and its altitude is decreasing much more slowly than before. </p>
<p>As a result, Tiangong might have a fairly long lifespan, possibly not burning up until 2017. And we should not forget the political dimension to coverage of Tiangong by Western media. As an <a href="http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/0714/c90000-9086175.html">anonymous source told the Global Times</a>, suggesting that the Tiangong situation is different in nature to the uncontrolled reentry of the <a href="http://www.history.com/news/the-day-skylab-crashed-to-earth-facts-about-the-first-u-s-space-stations-re-entry">US Skyab in 1979</a> over the Indian Ocean is basically a way of making China look threatening.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/130883/original/image-20160718-2115-1xbqw3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tiangong-1.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">TMRO/youtube</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We have survived even greater objects than SKylab re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. In 2001, the 150 tonne MIR space station burnt up during planned reentry – but the event resulted only in a few holiday snaps of the fragments, taken by tourists on the remote Fiji Islands. Alter all, most of our planet is covered by ocean or wilderness so even if some fragments did hit the Earth, they are extremely unlikely to hit a populated area. </p>
<h2>Lessons learned?</h2>
<p>It is interesting that the coverage has been triggered by amateur astronomers’ observations of Tiangong. Everyone can observe and monitor the existence of satellites in orbit – keeping tabs on what goes on up there. Therefore, it becomes a lot harder keeping things secretly in orbit, as demonstrated by the regular tracking of the <a href="http://www.space.com/29448-x37b-space-plane-launches-fourth-mission.html">US X-37B Space Plane</a>. The details of the mission, launched by the US Air Force, are mostly classified.</p>
<p>The Chinese space agency is faced with an interesting situation of global impact. Can they prove that they have an open and responsible space policy, as <a href="http://www.space.com/33140-china-tiangong-1-space-lab-falling-to-earth.html">outlined by Dean Cheng</a>, a senior research fellow at the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, US. This might be achieved by publishing a reentry trajectory, including times and a location. </p>
<p>This would be an important positive signal given China’s increasingly active space programme, as well as their past track record including the <a href="http://www.space.com/3415-china-anti-satellite-test-worrisome-debris-cloud-circles-earth.html">intentional destruction of one of their satellites</a> in 2011, which caused a vast cloud of space debris. Some 900 objects are now part of the ever increasing cloud of space junk that is becoming more and more of a problem for satellites and future space stations, including Tiangong 2, which will be launched this September.</p>
<p>What is becoming increasingly evident is that we need globally recognised and enforceable space legislation that ensures safe and responsible operations in space – specifically around the Earth. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/who-owns-space-us-asteroid-mining-act-is-dangerous-and-potentially-illegal-51073">Space Law is still in its infancy</a>, as exemplified by the Outer Space and Moon Treaty. This was created in the 1960s but has still not been recognised by all states. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the coverage of Tiangong makes it apparent that we do not have to rely on a specific monitoring organisation with custom-made observatories, directly or indirectly funded by the space industry, and therefore not really independent, for an insight into what is going on around the Earth. We, the people, are now able to do this by ourselves. So we are turning the tables on space agencies and industries around the world: we are watching them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62583/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We should welcome the fact that amateur astronomers are increasingly keeping tabs on what’s going on up above.Daniel Brown, Lecturer in Astronomy, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/393462015-03-30T13:13:26Z2015-03-30T13:13:26ZUS space exploration left in the cold by lack of vision and money<p>Space exploration has taken a small step forward with a <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/astronauts-scott-kelly-mikhail-kornienko-leave-on-year-long-space-mission-today-1.3011868">new mission</a> to the International Space Station (ISS). Two of the three crew members, astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko, will stay on the station for a year. </p>
<p>This is a positive step, given that if plans outlined by <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/60736main_M2M_report_small.pdf">George W Bush</a> back in 2004 had gone ahead for the US human space exploration programme, the ISS would soon be closing. Bush had planned to abandon it in 2016, most likely with a view to using the moon as the primary base beyond the Earth instead. </p>
<p>The decision was taken by Bush to <a href="http://www.space.com/15650-space-shuttle-endeavour-unplugged.html">decommission the space shuttle</a> at the start of the 2010s and rely on Russian <a href="http://gizmodo.com/russias-soyuz-spacecraft-looks-fantastic-as-it-prepares-1693771490">Soyuz flights</a> to carry American astronauts back and forth to the ISS until replacement American rocket <a href="http://www.space.com/7141-nasa-completes-test-rocket-replace-shuttle.html">Ares I</a> was developed. </p>
<h2>The Obama retreat</h2>
<p>The Bush plan was that NASA would embark on the <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/163092main_constellation_program_overview.pdf">Constellation programme</a>, which envisioned missions to the moon and then eventually Mars. But Constellation <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8489097.stm">was scrapped in 2010</a> when the Augustine Committee, a panel of experts convened by Barack Obama to review the country’s space plans, <a href="http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a4740/4334800/">concluded that</a> it was not feasible given projected funding. </p>
<p>Obama <a href="http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1702/1">then announced</a> that the human space exploration effort would embark on a “flexible path” to the future, beginning with a visit to an asteroid by 2025 to gain real experience in long-duration crewed space flight. <a href="http://www.space.com/8222-obama-aims-send-astronauts-asteroid-mars.html">He announced a new plan</a> to keep the ISS going until 2020.</p>
<p>NASA set out a two-pronged approach to human spaceflight at around the same time. First, transport duties were to be outsourced to the private sector. Contractors SpaceX and Orbital ATK <a href="http://www.space.com/6257-nasa-taps-spacex-orbital-sciences-haul-cargo-space-station.html">were selected</a> to transport cargo to the ISS, then, <a href="http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/26/nasa_oks_boeing_and_spacex_for_iss_resupply/">more recently</a>, SpaceX and Boeing were chosen as the carriers for moving crew back and forth. This will remove the need to depend on the Russians in future. The second part of the approach was to commission the <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/">Space Launch System</a> to carry crew to locations beyond the region between the Earth and the moon. This is being developed instead of Ares I. </p>
<p>Last year the US announced <a href="http://www.space.com/24208-international-space-station-extension-2024.html">its intention</a> to keep ISS functioning until 2024 – depending on its structural soundness. The extension has not yet officially been approved by all <a href="http://www.aerospaceguide.net/iss/">the parties</a> to the ISS, which include Japan, Russia, Canada and numerous members of the <a href="http://www.esa.int/ESA">European Space Agency</a>. </p>
<p>The main purpose of extending the life of the ISS from the US point of view is to allow more research to enable humans to cope better in the space environment. NASA also wants to keep the commercial side of space exploration alive as a means of establishing facilities that it can potentially make use of in future. </p>
<h2>Chinese and Russian manoeuvres</h2>
<p>The next full-size space station is expected to be the <a href="http://www.space.com/27440-china-space-station-plans.html">Chinese Space Station</a>, which is expected to begin reaching orbit in 2020 with full operational capacity by 2022. China has invited other states to participate in its programme, although exactly what that means is unclear. The Europeans are clearly <a href="http://www.space.com/8675-china-invited-join-international-space-station-nasa.html">building their ties</a> with China in the space arena, since there is no alternative on the horizon. </p>
<p>The US is prohibited by congressional action from cooperating or interacting with the Chinese space programme – indeed Washington has consistently <a href="http://www.nationaljournal.com/tech/is-it-time-for-the-u-s-to-partner-with-china-in-space-20140409">prevented China</a> from partnering in the ISS. This is based on several concerns, including Chinese cyberattacks on US technological secrets and the fact that their space programme operates under the auspices of the People’s Liberation Army. </p>
<p>Russia, meanwhile, has recently <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/feb/26/russia-outlines-breakaway-plans-to-build-national-space-station">spoken of</a> its efforts to build an independent space station but that has not moved beyond rhetoric yet, especially given the country’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/21/putin-russia-rouble-crisis-oil-price-leader">financial difficulties</a>. </p>
<h2>A commercial US station?</h2>
<p>There is no evidence that the US will lead a programme to build a successor space station, since the budget and political will appear to be lacking – and the country’s unwillingness to join the CSS programme may leave it isolated. But its intention is that the private sector will pick up that aspect of its space programme while NASA pushes outward along the lines envisaged by Obama. </p>
<p>This private “takeover” is written into the agreement that established the <a href="http://bigelowaerospace.com/beam/">Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM)</a> programme. The BEAM is an inflatable extra room that will be attached to the International Space Station which is projected to be active by late 2016 for two years of testing. </p>
<p>The aim of BEAM is to make space tourism more viable than at present. It is intended as a precursor to a Bigelow Aerospace commercial space station. Two prototypes are currently in orbit, the Genesis I and II, both of which <a href="http://www.space.com/4007-bigelow-orbital-module-launches-space.html">launched in the mid-2000s</a>. </p>
<p>Tourists presently fly to the ISS on a space-available basis. Such opportunities are available during the year-long stays of Scott Kelly and Mikhail Kornienko. Hence the singer Sarah Brightman <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/expedition44/">is heading to</a> the station later this year, for instance. </p>
<p>But until we see how private moves towards a space station play out, it still remains unknown where astronauts will go once the current station is taken out of commission – which is a certainty given that the space environment is too harsh to use it indefinitely. </p>
<p>No one knows how important a space station will be in the future, though my personal instinct is that the US would be better to be a partner in one next-generation facility. Either way, the US is unlikely to finance another. If the private sector does not take the strain, this may be one aspect of space activity in which the US is left out in the cold.</p>
<h2>Asteroids and beyond</h2>
<p>Meanwhile NASA has not yet been able to gain sufficient political support for any specific exploration programme. The <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/content/what-is-nasa-s-asteroid-redirect-mission/">Asteroid Redirect Mission</a> looks like a programme that is being done on the fly. The configuration of the mission has changed from going out to the asteroid for a long-duration mission, to corralling an asteroid and returning it to the region nearer Earth, <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/march/nasa-announces-next-steps-on-journey-to-mars-progress-on-asteroid-initiative/">to now</a> plucking a small boulder from an asteroid and placing it in a lunar orbit. </p>
<p>This is expected by 2020 or so. The problems are the old ones that hampered the original plans for the ISS – money and lack of consistent direction. The ISS shrank both in size and function across the decades from Ronald Reagan’s initial approval in 1984 of the concept to its first operational status in 2000. </p>
<p>The Asteroid Redirect Mission appears to be drifting slowly toward a US presence on the moon as an intermediate step to the rest of the solar system. If so, the flexible path is being hammered into a straight line to the moon for cost and prestige reasons. Until the US government clarifies its intentions, the country’s whole space strategy is up in the air.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39346/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Handberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whatever America’s exact strategy in space, it doesn’t seem to involve investing in a new International Space StationRoger Handberg, Pre-Law Advisor for the College of Sciences, University of Central FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.