tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/cicig-64940/articlesCICIG – The Conversation2022-01-02T12:58:08Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1741532022-01-02T12:58:08Z2022-01-02T12:58:08ZGuatemala: 25 years later, ‘firm and lasting peace’ is nowhere to be found<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438892/original/file-20211222-13-azfmuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5184%2C3313&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A Mayan spiritual guide arranges crosses, marked with the names of people who died in the nation's civil war, in a circle in preparation for a ceremony marking the National Day of Dignity for the Victims of Armed Internal Conflict. Guatemalans annually honor the victims of the 36-year civil war that ended in 1996 on Feb. 25. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Moises Castillo) </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Dec. 29 marked the 25th anniversary of the <a href="https://www.c-r.org/accord/guatemala">signing of a peace accord</a> that effectively brought 36 years of armed conflict in Guatemala to an end. When <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/guatemala-firmlastingpeace96">what’s known as the Firm and Lasting Peace Accord</a> was signed, the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/latin_america-jan-june11-timeline_03-07">Guatemalan Civil War</a> was one of the longest, bloodiest conflicts in 20th-century Latin America.</p>
<p>A quarter century later, the peace that was supposed to be “firm and lasting” is anything but. If any peace prevails in Guatemala, it is a peace resembling war.</p>
<p>As a researcher with long-standing interests in the historical geography of Latin America, I have studied Guatemala for many years. A <a href="https://btlbooks.com/book/beauty-that-hurts254">2019 memoir I wrote</a> revisits the impact of Guatemala’s military-dominated state on its Indigenous Maya Peoples.</p>
<h2>A legacy of violence</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/26/guatemalan-genocide-survivors-march-for-justice">More than 80 per cent</a> of the civil war casualties were unarmed Indigenous Mayas. A <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/1997/02/truth-commission-guatemala">United Nations-backed commission</a> charged the Guatemalan military forces with genocide and held them responsible for 93 per cent of the killings. Guerrilla insurgents, fighting to overthrow the regime, were attributed three per cent of the atrocities.</p>
<p>American anthropologist Victoria Sanford <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14754830802070192">summed up the dire situation</a> following the war this way: if the number of victims kept rising, “more people will die in the first 25 years of peace” than during the country’s brutal civil war, which a <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/357870-guatemala-memory-of-silence">UN inquiry documented at more than 200,000</a>. </p>
<p>Sanford’s grim reckoning is manifested in Guatemalan <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=GT">homicide rates</a>. In 2009, murders amounted to a staggering 45 for every 100,000 inhabitants. By comparison, Canada’s homicide rate was 1.95 per 100,000 people in 2020, and in the United States it was 7.8.</p>
<p>Most violent deaths in Guatemala are <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/guatemala">never investigated</a>, let alone brought before the courts. The cause of most deaths is no longer overtly political in nature, but instead related to gang violence, drug trafficking, extortion rackets, fraudulent dealings and <a href="https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2021/12/talks-planned-to-end-100-year-guatemala-indigenous-dispute">the settling of age-old scores.</a></p>
<p>During some of the post-accord years — in 2006 for example — there were as many as 500 murders, amounting to <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7081312.stm">17 a day</a>.</p>
<h2>Neoliberalism and massive inequality</h2>
<p>Álvaro Arzú was the president of Guatemala when the peace accord was signed in 1996. Although he was one of the officials who signed it, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1999-feb-26-mn-12004-story.html">three years later he refused to acknowledge that the atrocities committed during the conflict actually occurred</a> — at least not to the extent alleged, and not by the Guatemalan army.</p>
<p>Under his neoliberal policies, not only did widespread poverty and massive inequality — the primary reasons for confrontation in the first place — remain unaddressed, but they actually increased. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-exactly-is-neoliberalism-84755">What exactly is neoliberalism?</a>
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<p>In 1999, the <a href="https://btlbooks.com/book/beauty-that-hurts254">findings of a UN survey of human development ranked Guatemala</a> 117th globally in terms of quality of life, well behind Central American neighbour Costa Rica (ranked 45th) and trailing two others known to be desperately poor, El Salvador (107th) and Honduras (114th).</p>
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<img alt="Two men in suits shaking hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438895/original/file-20211222-48178-9v88or.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438895/original/file-20211222-48178-9v88or.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438895/original/file-20211222-48178-9v88or.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438895/original/file-20211222-48178-9v88or.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438895/original/file-20211222-48178-9v88or.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438895/original/file-20211222-48178-9v88or.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438895/original/file-20211222-48178-9v88or.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Former Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales (2016-2020), right, shakes hands with former President Alvaro Arzu (1996-2000) during an official ceremony to mark the 21st anniversary of the 1996 peace accords that ended Guatemala’s civil war on Dec. 29, 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Moises Castillo)</span></span>
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<h2>Over-exploited, not under-developed</h2>
<p>Guatemala is not an under-developed country. On the contrary, Guatemala is a country rich in resources, natural and human. But it has been crippled by the distribution of its resources, especially land, and is rife with inequality. </p>
<p>Unequal land distribution lies at the heart of Guatemala’s problems. The country is still strikingly rural, with the lives of thousands of low-income families and those of a privileged few connected by the politics of land ownership. </p>
<p>In Guatemala, 90 per cent of farms account for 16 per cent of total farm area, while two per cent of the total number of farms occupy 65 per cent of total farmland. The best land is used to grow coffee, cotton, bananas and sugar cane for export, <a href="https://btlbooks.com/book/beauty-that-hurts254">not to feed malnourished local populations</a>. Until this imbalance is redressed, problems will endure.</p>
<h2>Corrupt leadership</h2>
<p>Five presidents who succeeded Arzú all promised economic and social improvement, especially for the 85 per cent of their 17 million citizens <a href="https://btlbooks.com/book/beauty-that-hurts254">deemed by the UN</a> to live in poverty — 70 per cent of them in a state of extreme poverty. None has done any better than Arzú. </p>
<p>Mired by charges of corruption, two former presidents (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-portillo-idUSKBN0LT28F20150225">Alfonso Portillo</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/world/americas/guatemala-corruption-colom-oxfam.html">Álvaro Colom</a>) were imprisoned after leaving office. Another, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/guatemala-president-molina-jail-1.3215316">Otto Pérez Molina</a>, was removed from office and jailed for accepting bribes so businesses could avoid paying import duties. </p>
<p>An International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) was <a href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-what-cicig">established in 2006</a> to investigate virulent wrongdoing. The UN-backed CICIG dismantled 60 criminal bands and prosecuted 680 prominent individuals for corrupt activities. In 2019, however, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/9/1/guatemalas-anti-corruption-cicig-body-to-shut-down-what-to-know">its mandate was revoked and its officers banished</a> by then-president Jimmy Morales. </p>
<h2>‘Witch hunt’</h2>
<p>Current president Alejandro Giammattei operates similarly to his predecessors. He <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/24/guatemala-attorney-general-fires-top-anti-corruption-prosecutor">dismissed anti-corruption prosecutors</a> brave enough to hold tax evaders and money launderers to account. </p>
<p>Giammattei asserts that anti-corruption initiatives have become a witch hunt in which left-leaning lawyers — like judge Juan Francisco Sandoval, who served as Head of the Special Prosecutor’s Office against Impunity — vilify those on the opposite end of the political spectrum. </p>
<p>“Everybody has a right to their own ideology,” Giammattei said in a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/exclusive-guatemalan-president-says-graft-fighter-biased-ahead-harris-visit-2021-06-02/">recent media interview</a>. “The problem is when you transfer that ideology to your actions, and worse when you are in charge of justice.” </p>
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<img alt="A group of people sit huddled together in the middle of a road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438893/original/file-20211222-50538-x4cvb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438893/original/file-20211222-50538-x4cvb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438893/original/file-20211222-50538-x4cvb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438893/original/file-20211222-50538-x4cvb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438893/original/file-20211222-50538-x4cvb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438893/original/file-20211222-50538-x4cvb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438893/original/file-20211222-50538-x4cvb2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Protesters block a highway in Guatemala, after Indigenous leaders called for a nationwide strike to pressure Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei to resign on July 29, 2021. The protest came in response to the firing of Special Prosecutor Against Impunity Juan Francisco Sandoval.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Moises Castillo)</span></span>
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<p>After being relieved of their duties, <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2021/07/24/anti-corruption-prosecutor-praised-by-us-flees-guatemala/">Sandoval and other prosecutors fled the country</a>, fearing for their safety. United States President Joe Biden’s administration has <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-07-15/biden-expands-fight-against-corruption-central-america">expressed concern over corruption in Central America</a>, linking it to the despair Guatemalans feel about how they are governed and prompting many to seek a better life in <em>El Norte</em> (North America). </p>
<p>In the past year alone, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/guatemala-politics-corruption/">280,000 Guatemalans have been apprehended by American border officials</a> in failed attempts to enter the U.S. from Mexico, their journey north fraught with danger. </p>
<p>As 2021 drew to a close, given the precarious manner in which Guatemala continues to be governed, the 25th anniversary of the signing of its peace accord was no cause for celebration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174153/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. George Lovell receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>Twenty-five years after the signing of a peace accord that ended a 36-year civil war, Guatemala is still struggling with violence and corruption.W. George Lovell, Professor, Department of Geography and Planning, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1217172019-08-12T20:05:54Z2019-08-12T20:05:54ZGuatemala’s next president has few plans for fixing rampant corruption, crime and injustice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287713/original/file-20190812-71936-1wciere.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alejandro Giammattei is a former prison official whose tenure was tainted by the 2006 mass killing of seven prisoners. He was accused but never indicted on conspiracy charges in those deaths.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Guatemala-Elections/983ae4cfc4a747a3b23cd8c03ce49077/3/0">AP Photo/ Santiago Billy</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Guatemala’s next leader will be Alejandro Giammattei, a right-wing former national prison director. </p>
<p>With 58% of votes, Giammettei <a href="https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/politica/elecciones-2019-alejandro-giammattei-es-el-virtual-presidente-electo-de-guatemala/">beat former first lady Sandra Torres by 16 points</a> in the second round of Guatemala’s election on Aug. 11. It was his fourth presidential bid.</p>
<p>As a candidate, <a href="https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/politica/alejandro-giammattei-20-anos-de-un-candidato-itinerante/">Giammattei</a> spoke of creating jobs and fighting crime in the poor, violence-gripped Central American country. But his campaign offered few policy proposals beyond taking a hard line against <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/collaborators-guatemala-chained-ms13/">gangs like MS-13 that operate with impunity in Guatemala</a>, building new prisons and reimposing the death penalty.</p>
<p>Giammattei <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/12/guatemala-elects-president-alejandro-giammattei-who-called-trump-immigration-deal-bad-news">hasn’t yet agreed to implement</a> Guatemala’s controversial recent <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/07/trump-guatemala-safe-third-country-asylum-morales-central-america/">agreement with the Trump administration</a> to stop Central American migrants from crossing through Guatemala. </p>
<p>The 63-year-old Giammattei’s base includes former military members, the far right, evangelicals and business leaders – essentially the same electorate that put outgoing President Jimmy Morales <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-34632485">in power</a>. But polling suggests Giammattei won primarily due to the extreme unpopularity of his opponent, who has a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/world/americas/guatemala-election.html">history of corruption allegations</a>. </p>
<p>Guatemalans were deeply <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/challenges-facing-guatemalas-next-president">unenthusiastic about both candidates</a>. Just 42% of registered voters voted, the lowest percentage since the country’s civil war ended in 1996. Nearly 6% of them <a href="https://preliminares2019.tse.org.gt/201902/panel.html">cast blank or spoiled ballots</a>, apparently in protest.</p>
<p>Many Guatemalans <a href="https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-49292421">expressed fear</a> that no matter who won the runoff, this election would mark the end of Guatemala’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/guatemala-expulsion-of-un-investigators-drags-country-down-authoritarian-path-102815">decade-long fight to root out massive government corruption</a>. </p>
<p>Giammattei is an ally of President Morales, who is under <a href="https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2019/01/07/jimmy-morales-termina-el-acuerdo-de-guatemala-con-la-cicig/">investigation for campaign finance violations</a>. His inner circle of former generals and elite power brokers who have ruled the country for decades also backed the disgraced former President Otto Pérez Molina, who resigned amid scandal in 2015 and was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/04/world/americas/otto-perez-molina-guatemalan-president-resigns-amid-scandal.html">jailed hours later for corruption</a>.</p>
<h2>Justice no more</h2>
<p>As a longtime <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3281991">researcher on justice in post-civil war Guatemala</a>, I have grave concerns about Giammattei’s commitment to restoring the rule of law. </p>
<p>Giammattei is closely associated with the <a href="http://www.revistafactum.com/los-enemigos-de-la-cicig-van-por-la-presidencia-de-guatemala/">old military intelligence</a> groups that have dominated Guatemalan politics behind the scenes since its bloody, decades-long <a href="https://www.pri.org/stories/2016-12-29/why-you-need-know-about-guatemalas-civil-war">civil war</a> ended in the 1990s. </p>
<p>His tenure as national director of prisons was tainted when seven inmates were killed <a href="https://nomada.gt/pais/elecciones-2019/giammattei-20-anos-de-candidato-y-una-coleccion-de-criminales-cerca-suyo/">under suspicious circumstances</a> in 2006 at Guatemala’s <a href="https://nomada.gt/pais/actualidad/resumen-del-dia-pavon-o-de-como-una-carcel-salva-el-dia-a-los-corruptos/">notoriously lawless Pavón prison</a>. </p>
<p>According to prosecutors, the killings were committed by a <a href="https://www.cicig.org/historial//index.php?mact=News,cntnt01,detail,0&cntnt01articleid=421&cntnt01returnid=67">prison death squad</a> that worked inside jails, with administrators’ explicit approval, to exterminate the “dregs” of society and “enemies of the state.” Three of the killers were convicted of murder in Guatemala for the prison deaths. </p>
<p>Giammattei was charged with conspiracy but <a href="https://lahora.gt/hemeroteca-lh/caso-pavon-infiernito-mp-prepara-170-pruebas/">acquitted in 2013</a>. Last year a Swiss appeals court sentenced his <a href="https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/politica/erwin-sperisen-condena-suiza-muerte-reos-pavon-guatemala/">accused co-conspirator</a>, former police chief Edwin Sperisen, to 15 years in prison for the murders. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287715/original/file-20190812-71897-1sjivfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287715/original/file-20190812-71897-1sjivfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287715/original/file-20190812-71897-1sjivfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287715/original/file-20190812-71897-1sjivfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287715/original/file-20190812-71897-1sjivfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287715/original/file-20190812-71897-1sjivfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287715/original/file-20190812-71897-1sjivfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287715/original/file-20190812-71897-1sjivfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">A spoiled ballot demonstrating voter rejection of both Guatemalan presidential candidates, Aug. 11, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pictures.reuters.com/CS.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0FCICXYYVVF&SMLS=1&RW=1522&RH=706&POPUPPN=7&POPUPIID=2C0FQEQS5GA9B#/SearchResult&VBID=2C0FCICXYYVVF&SMLS=1&RW=1522&RH=706&POPUPPN=34&POPUPIID=2C0FQEQS5DZ_7">Reuters/Luis Echeverria</a></span>
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<p>Giammattei was <a href="https://theconversation.com/corruption-triumphs-in-guatemalas-presidential-election-119076">not expected</a> to become Guatemala’s president. </p>
<p>Early in the race the clear front-runner was Thelma Aldana, Guatemala’s corruption-busting former attorney general. But in May she was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-election/guatemala-court-ruling-all-but-ends-ex-prosecutors-election-hopes-idUSKCN1SM05L">barred from the race</a> for <a href="https://es.insightcrime.org/noticias/noticias-del-dia/activista-contra-corrupcion-en-guatemala-enfrenta-orden-de-arresto/">alleged financial mismanagement</a>. That bumped Sandra Torres into first place, with Giammattei running a distant second. </p>
<p>Many saw the ruling against Aldana as <a href="https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/justicia/mp-investigara-supuestos-sobornos-al-juez-victor-cruz-que-ordeno-la-captura-de-thelma-aldana/">politically motivated</a>. </p>
<p>As attorney general from 2014 to 2018, Aldana worked closely with the United Nations-backed anti-corruption panel known as <a href="https://dppa.un.org/en/mission/cicig">CICIG</a>. Since its creation in 2007, CICIG has prosecuted <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/05/18/what-does-cicig-do">three former presidents</a> and more than 600 other high-ranking officials in Guatemala for everything from money laundering and embezzlement to ties with organized crime. </p>
<p>When <a href="https://theconversation.com/guatemala-in-crisis-after-president-bans-corruption-investigation-into-his-government-109864">President Morales expelled its lead prosecutor</a> earlier this year, Aldana vocally protested. She has since fled the country after receiving death threats. </p>
<p>Giammattei says he will pursue the fight against <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-central-america-gangs-like-ms-13-are-bad-but-corrupt-politicians-may-be-worse-86113">endemic corruption</a> but he opposes the CICIG, which supported his prosecution in the Pavón Prison case. Despite <a href="https://www.cicig.org/apoyo-ciudadano/poblacion-guatemalteca-apoya-labor-de-la-cicig/">72% popular support</a>, the commission is now due to close in September. </p>
<p>Giammattei has offered no concrete plan to continue cleaning up Guatemala’s government. Without the CICIG’s investigators and prosecutors, Giammattei is unlikely to pull the country out of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/central-american-kids-come-to-the-us-fleeing-record-high-youth-murder-rates-at-home-99132">morass of kleptocracy, violence</a> and extreme poverty that sends <a href="https://theconversation.com/forced-migration-from-central-america-5-essential-reads-98600">thousands of desperate Guatemalans abroad each year</a>.</p>
<h2>Trouble ahead, trouble behind</h2>
<p>Through bribery, coercion and threat of violence, criminal cartels have <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-central-america-gangs-like-ms-13-are-bad-but-corrupt-politicians-may-be-worse-86113">infiltrated Guatemala’s government</a> over the last 20 years. </p>
<p>A CICIG investigation found that <a href="https://www.cicig.org/uploads/documents/2015/informe_financiamiento_politicagt.pdf">half of political party financing</a> comes from organized crime and corruption. In Guatemala’s Congress, dirty legislators known to be on the take are locally regarded as the “Pact of the Corrupt.” </p>
<p>The largest bloc in the incoming Congress, which takes office Jan. 1, will be from Torres’ National Unity of Hope party. Just 17 of 158 Guatemalan lawmakers belong to Giammattei’s Vamos Party. </p>
<p>A small bloc of legislators will come from a new center-left party called Semilla, or “Seed,” which nominated Aldana as its presidential candidate. Semilla’s presence ensures Giammattei will have some vocal opposition in Congress. </p>
<p>A conservative majority of lawmakers is expected <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/an-amnesty-for-crimes-against-humanity-guatemalan-proposal-stirs-outrage/2019/02/23/bc0fe13e-3481-11e9-8375-e3dcf6b68558_story.html?noredirect=on">to try again to pass a controversial amnesty law</a> that would pardon former military officials convicted of crimes against humanity during Guatemala’s civil war and prevent those accused of human rights violations from being prosecuted. </p>
<p>Given his military ties, Giammettei would likely sign such an amnesty bill into law. </p>
<p>Guatemalan judges who, with the support of the CICIG, have <a href="https://www.ijmonitor.org/2018/05/four-retired-senior-military-officers-found-guilty-in-molina-theissen-case/">put former military officers and corrupt politicians in prison</a> have <a href="https://www.cejil.org/es/csj-guatemala-debe-garantizar-independencia-del-juez-pablo-xitumul">faced unfounded investigations</a> against them and <a href="https://www.latribuna.hn/2019/02/11/expertos-de-onu-destacan-mas-amenazas-a-jueces-en-guatemala-tras-fin-de-cicig/">threats to their safety</a>. So have <a href="https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/comunitario/los-riegos-de-los-defensores-de-derechos-humanos-persisten-en-guatemala-donde-cada-semana-mueren-dos-de-ellos/">human rights actvists and environmental defenders</a>. </p>
<p>These attacks on the rule of law in Guatemala would <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/how-us-apathy-helped-kill-a-pioneering-anticorruption-campaign-in-guatemala/2019/06/14/cc4f464a-1e5e-11e9-a759-2b8541bbbe20_story.html">ordinarily draw criticism from the United States</a>. Now they are met with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-trump-administrations-self-defeating-policy-toward-the-guatemalan-elections">silence</a>, both from the Trump administration and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-49290661">Guatemala’s new president-elect</a>. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/corruption-triumphs-in-guatemalas-presidential-election-119076">article</a> original published on June 21, 2019.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121717/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Naomi Roht-Arriaza is affiliated with Due Process of Law Foundation as president of the Board.</span></em></p>Conservative Alejandro Giammattei beat former first lady Sandra Torres with 60% of the vote. But turnout was the lowest in Guatemala’s modern history, in apparent protest of both candidates.Naomi Roht-Arriaza, Distinguished Professor of Law, University of California College of the Law, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1190762019-06-21T12:13:07Z2019-06-21T12:13:07ZCorruption triumphs in Guatemala’s presidential election<p>The two winners in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48621524">Guatemala’s June 16 presidential vote</a> – former first lady Sandra Torres and former prison director Alejandro Giammattei – will face off in a second round of voting in August. </p>
<p>But already one election loser is clear: Guatemala in its decade-long <a href="https://theconversation.com/guatemala-expulsion-of-un-investigators-drags-country-down-authoritarian-path-102815">fight to root out massive government corruption</a>.</p>
<p>Both Torres, who won 25.7% of a vote split between 19 candidates, and Giammattei, who trailed 11 points behind her, have both been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/17/world/americas/guatemala-election.html">accused of corrupt practices</a>. Both are also alleged to have links to powerful Guatemalan organized crime groups involved in drug and human trafficking. </p>
<p>Early in the campaign the anti-corruption crusader Thelma Aldana was favored to win. But in May she was <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-election/guatemala-court-ruling-all-but-ends-ex-prosecutors-election-hopes-idUSKCN1SM05L">barred from the race</a> for <a href="https://es.insightcrime.org/noticias/noticias-del-dia/activista-contra-corrupcion-en-guatemala-enfrenta-orden-de-arresto/">alleged financial mismanagement</a> while she was Guatemala’s attorney general. </p>
<p>The judge who disqualified her candidacy is <a href="https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/justicia/mp-investigara-supuestos-sobornos-al-juez-victor-cruz-que-ordeno-la-captura-de-thelma-aldana/">under investigation</a> for accepting bribes, and many saw the ruling as politically motivated. As attorney general from 2014 to 2018, Aldana worked closely with the United Nations-backed anti-corruption panel known as <a href="https://dppa.un.org/en/mission/cicig">CICIG</a> and protested when <a href="https://theconversation.com/guatemala-in-crisis-after-president-bans-corruption-investigation-into-his-government-109864">President Jimmy Morales expelled its prosecutor</a> earlier this year. </p>
<p>Since its creation in 2007, CICIG has prosecuted <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/05/18/what-does-cicig-do">three former presidents</a> and dozens of other high-ranking officials in Guatemala for everything from money laundering and embezzlement to ties with organized crime. </p>
<p>Both Torres and Giammattei oppose CICIG’s continuing presence in Guatemala. </p>
<p>Neither is expected to pull the Central American country out of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/central-american-kids-come-to-the-us-fleeing-record-high-youth-murder-rates-at-home-99132">morass of kleptocracy, violence</a> and extreme poverty that sends <a href="https://theconversation.com/forced-migration-from-central-america-5-essential-reads-98600">thousands of desperate Guatemalans fleeing abroad each year</a>.</p>
<h2>Justice no more</h2>
<p>It’s grim but not remarkable that Guatemala’s next president may be in cahoots with organized crime. </p>
<p>Through bribery, coercion and threat of violence, criminal cartels have <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-central-america-gangs-like-ms-13-are-bad-but-corrupt-politicians-may-be-worse-86113">infiltrated Guatemala’s government</a> over the last 20 years. A CICIG investigation found that <a href="https://www.cicig.org/uploads/documents/2015/informe_financiamiento_politicagt.pdf">half of political party financing</a> comes from organized crime and corruption. </p>
<p>It’s not just the president: In Guatemala’s Congress, dirty legislators known to be on the take are locally regarded as the “Pact of the Corrupt.”</p>
<p>As a longtime <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3281991">researcher on post-conflict justice in Guatemala</a>, I see both the CICIG and Aldana’s efforts to root out corruption and end impunity as absolutely critical to stabilizing the country. So this election worries me.</p>
<p>Until her term as attorney general ended last year, Aldana helped strengthen the rule of law in Guatemala. Like her predecessor, she pushed forward <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/23/guatemala-ex-military-officers-convicted-of-crimes-against-humanity">human rights trials of former military brass</a> implicated in the massacres of hundreds of thousands of Guatemalans in the decades-long armed conflict that ended in 1996. </p>
<p>This work cost Aldana her presidential run and quite nearly her life: She fled the country in March <a href="https://bbenews.com/watch/ooxzFO0A3o0/thelma-aldana-confirma-amenaza-de-atentado-contra-su-vida.html">after the American Drug Enforcement Agency warned of plots to kill her</a>. </p>
<p>That left Torres as the clear frontrunner to become president of Guatemala.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280585/original/file-20190620-149831-1cbx4d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280585/original/file-20190620-149831-1cbx4d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280585/original/file-20190620-149831-1cbx4d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280585/original/file-20190620-149831-1cbx4d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280585/original/file-20190620-149831-1cbx4d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280585/original/file-20190620-149831-1cbx4d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280585/original/file-20190620-149831-1cbx4d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280585/original/file-20190620-149831-1cbx4d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Poll workers await voters in Chinautla, near Guatemala City, on June 16, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Guatemala-Elections/ec5b0d05830848b0a460b4ef339aeb0c/32/0">AP Photo/Oliver de Ros</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Candidates with shady pasts</h2>
<p>Connections to corruption have dogged Torres’ political career.</p>
<p>Torres, who is on her third presidential run, is the ex-wife and former social affairs secretary of jailed former Guatemalan President Alvaro Colom. He was accused of <a href="https://elperiodico.com.gt/nacion/2018/08/09/el-dinero-de-los-zetas-y-la-campana-de-colom-en-guatemala/">taking US$11 million from drug traffickers</a> in 2007 and is now awaiting trial on separate charges of complicity in a kickback scheme for a new bus system.</p>
<p>Torres herself was accused by Guatemalan prosecutors of <a href="http://www.revistafactum.com/los-enemigos-de-la-cicig-van-por-la-presidencia-de-guatemala/">illegal campaign financing for her 2015 campaign</a>. That charge could have derailed her presidential bid, but anti-Aldana prosecutors are widely believed to have <a href="https://nomada.gt/pais/entender-la-politica/el-mito-del-monstruo-o-la-candidata-que-interviene-ante-dios-por-los-pobres/">slow-walked their investigation of Torres</a> until her candidacy was approved. </p>
<p>Under Guatemalan law, she now has immunity from criminal charges until she either loses the election or finishes her term. </p>
<p>As president, Torres would likely reinstate the popular social welfare programs that characterized her ex-husband’s government from 2008 to 2012. Her campaign targeted voters largely in poor, rural areas of the country who could desperately use more government aid.</p>
<p>Torres’ runoff opponent Alejandro Giammattei, an ally of President Morales, is an extreme right-wing former prison official with known <a href="http://www.revistafactum.com/los-enemigos-de-la-cicig-van-por-la-presidencia-de-guatemala/">ties to old military intelligence</a> groups involved in illegal activities. He was the director of prisons when seven prisoners were killed in jail, in an apparent mass assassination. </p>
<p>Giammattei was <a href="https://lahora.gt/hemeroteca-lh/caso-pavon-infiernito-mp-prepara-170-pruebas/">charged but eventually acquitted</a> of conspiracy in the prison deaths.</p>
<p>He draws his electoral support from the military and Guatemala’s conservative traditional elite. This is Giammattei’s fourth presidential try.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280586/original/file-20190620-149818-jpmcuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280586/original/file-20190620-149818-jpmcuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/280586/original/file-20190620-149818-jpmcuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280586/original/file-20190620-149818-jpmcuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280586/original/file-20190620-149818-jpmcuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280586/original/file-20190620-149818-jpmcuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280586/original/file-20190620-149818-jpmcuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/280586/original/file-20190620-149818-jpmcuf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Despite having 19 options, many Guatemalans were displeased with their choices for president. Several popular candidates were barred from running by the country’s electoral commission.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Guatemala-Elections/c7a81a1093f6481ba743917fcd83fb2f/22/0">AP Photo/Moises Castillo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Seeds of political change</h2>
<p>Though the top two vote-getters were political veterans and Torres’ National Unity of Hope party won a majority of congressional seats, new forces on the left made inroads in Guatemala’s election, too. </p>
<p>Thelma Cabrera from the Movement for the Liberation of Peoples, a new indigenous political party, placed fourth with just over 10% of the presidential vote. Cabrera, a Mayan organizer for the peasant rights organization <a href="https://www.frontlinedefenders.org/en/organization/codeca">Codeca</a>, ran on an agenda of “dignity” and radical change, including a “plurinational” constituent assembly that would better reflect the diversity of Guatemala’s population. </p>
<p>Congressional candidates from her party <a href="https://www.prensacomunitaria.org/violencia-electoral-en-todas-sus-formas/">faced violence</a> throughout the race – a sign that this <a href="https://nacla.org/news/2018/06/21/terror-guatemala">indigenous movement has stirred up fear</a> among the powerful elites who’ve governed Guatemala for decades.</p>
<p>And Thelma Aldana’s young Semilla, or “Seed,” Movement won just over 10% of legislative seats. Semilla will be a vocal opposition voice when Guatemala’s new Congress takes office in 2020. </p>
<p>Between now and then, I expect the current Congress will scramble to restore business as usual in Guatemala. </p>
<p>Free of Aldana’s anti-corruption crusading and of the CICIG’s scrutiny, lawmakers are expected to try again to pass a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/an-amnesty-for-crimes-against-humanity-guatemalan-proposal-stirs-outrage/2019/02/23/bc0fe13e-3481-11e9-8375-e3dcf6b68558_story.html">controversial amnesty law</a>. </p>
<p>That would protect former military officials from being prosecuted for crimes committed during Guatemala’s civil war, including a well-connected <a href="https://www.univision.com/noticias/america-latina/arrestan-en-guatemala-a-exjefe-militar-acusado-de-genocidio-cuando-salia-de-votar">former Guatemalan general just charged</a> with genocide for army operations he oversaw in the 1980s. Luis Mendoza García, who has been on the run since 2011, was arrested on election day while voting in his home town.</p>
<p>No matter who wins the presidency in August, Guatemala’s vicious social problems remain deeply rooted. That’s bad news both for Guatemala and nearby countries, including the United States.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Naomi Roht-Arriaza is affiliated with Due Process of Law Foundation as president of the Board. </span></em></p>For their next president, Guatemalans must choose between two veteran politicians with shady pasts and alleged ties to organized crime.Naomi Roht-Arriaza, Distinguished Professor of Law, University of California College of the Law, San FranciscoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1028152019-01-23T12:41:01Z2019-01-23T12:41:01ZGuatemala: expulsion of UN investigators drags country down authoritarian path<p>Recent events in Guatemala have raised serious doubts about democracy in the Central American country, suggesting it might be following the increasingly authoritarian path of Nicaragua and Venezuela. </p>
<p>In early January, Guatemalan president Jimmy Morales announced that he would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/07/world/americas/guatemala-corruption-commission-united-nations.html">immediately end the mandate</a> of the UN-sponsored International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala <a href="https://dpa.un.org/en/mission/cicig">(CICIG)</a>, giving its prosecutors 24 hours to leave the country. The CICIG aims to investigate illegal security groups and clandestine organisations in Guatemala, and has led investigations into high-level cases of corruption. Morales, however, accuses the CICIG itself of corruption, and of putting public security and government at risk through selective and partial justice. </p>
<p>The decision to end CICIG’s mandate did not come out of the blue. It is only the latest development in a battle that Morales has waged against the successful anti-corruption body for over a year. On August 31 2018, Morales announced that he would not renew the CICIG’s mandate after September 2019, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-45352192">claiming</a> that it has “sown judicial terror in Guatemala”.</p>
<p>He announced his decision while surrounded by senior armed forces and police personnel – military vehicles and masked soldiers were later deployed to the CICIG’s headquarters in an apparent attempt to intimidate. Since then, acclaimed Colombian prosecutor and head of the CICIG, Iván Velásquez, who was on a visit to the US at the time of Morales’ decision, has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/04/world/americas/guatemala-ivan-velasquez-corruption.html">unable to return to Guatemala</a>.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the UN is adamant that the CICIG continues its work, even with Velásquez out of the country. High-level UN representatives, such as Antonio Guterres and Michelle Bachelet, have <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2019-01-07/statement-attributable-the-spokesman-for-the-secretary-general-guatemala-scroll-down-for-spanish-version">strongly criticised</a> Morales’s most recent decision, warning against the erosion of democracy and the rule of law in the country. Other international actors such as <a href="https://eeas.europa.eu/delegations/guatemala/56441/declaraci%C3%B3n-de-la-alta-representante-en-nombre-de-la-ue-sobre-la-decisi%C3%B3n-unilateral-del_en">the EU</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sir-alan-duncan-statement-on-guatemala-and-the-cicig">the UK</a> have also expressed their concern – although the US has been more ambiguous in its support for the CICIG.</p>
<h2>High-level corruption</h2>
<p>The reason for Morales’ fierce opposition to the CICIG appears simple. Initially, Morales supported the CICIG and it has received <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/wola-report-on-the-international-commission-against-impunity-in-guatemala-cicig/">nothing but praise internationally</a> for its effective and independent investigations and its efforts to strengthen the Guatemalan justice system. And yet this success is also exactly what seems to be worrying the Guatemalan president.</p>
<p>Morales, who was elected president in 2015 and was a <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/jimmy-morales-how-the-comedian-became-president-of-guatemala-a6810931.html">comedy actor</a> by profession, won the presidency by promising he was “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-42789249">neither corrupt, nor a thief</a>”. The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-34632485">2015 election</a> took place in the wake of large-scale public protests against the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/09/guatemala-president-otto-perez-molina-cicig-corruption-investigation">corruption of the previous president</a>, Otto Pérez Molina, allegations brought to light by CICIG investigations. </p>
<p>Molina has been in jail since September 2015, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-41786239">awaiting trial</a>, while his vice-president, Roxana Baldetti, was handed a 15-year prison sentence last October for her role in a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/09/guatemala-former-vice-president-jailed-15-years-corruption-case">massive fraud case</a>. </p>
<p>Since then, investigations by the CICIG and Guatemala’s public prosecutor’s office have found evidence of <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/investigations/president-jimmy-morales-guatemalas-original-sin/">illegal donations</a> to Morales’s political party and have launched investigations into some of <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46789931">Morales’s family members</a>. It appears this has caused Morales to turn against the commission. </p>
<h2>Rule of law</h2>
<p>Worryingly, Morales has also turned against the country’s constitutional court. Over the past 16 months, the court has blocked several government attempts to obstruct the CICIG’s work – <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46813367">including this latest attempt to expel its investigators</a>.</p>
<p>But the government regularly ignores the court’s decisions – and the country’s inspector general’s office recently began actions to impeach several <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-guatemala-corruption-crisis-20190110-story.html">constitutional court judges</a>. Furthermore, several senior members of the national police <a href="https://elperiodico.com.gt/nacion/2019/01/15/degenhart-destituye-al-subdirector-de-la-pnc-que-revoco-orden-de-quitar-vehiculos-a-la-cicig/">have been removed</a>, allegedly for having assisted the CICIG. The government seems intent on protecting its immunity from investigation. </p>
<p>On January 14, Morales presented his annual report – during which the streets around the presidential palace were blocked off by a <a href="https://elperiodico.com.gt/nacion/2019/01/14/policia-y-saas-ocupan-el-corazon-del-centro-historico-por-asistencia-de-jimmy-morales-al-congreso/">strong police presence</a>. Without mentioning the CICIG, he called for the Guatemalan people to <a href="https://www.prensalibre.com/guatemala/politica/en-directo-jimmy-morales-da-el-tercer-informe-de-labores-ante-el-congreso/">defend their country’s sovereignty</a>.</p>
<h2>Ripping up the constitution</h2>
<p>Many in Guatemala are extremely concerned. They see Morales’s actions as the greatest threat to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/jimmy-morales-guatemala.html">democracy and constitutional order</a> since Guatemala’s 36-year armed conflict ended in 1996. Many worry that authoritarian tendencies are resurfacing, even more so because congress has been debating laws that would give it powers to facilitate the ousting of officials, including constitutional court judges. Discussions are also being held <a href="https://www.ijmonitor.org/2019/01/guatemala-poised-to-adopt-blanket-amnesty-for-grave-crimes-cases/">for reforms</a> to the country’s Law of National Reconciliation, aiming to introduce a blanket amnesty to those accused of serious human rights violations committed during the conflict, including genocide and sexual slavery. </p>
<p>Thousands of Guatemalans have taken to the streets to protest the <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-guatemala-protests-20190114-story.html">government’s actions</a>. Velásquez has also stated that he is willing to resign, if the government retracts its decision <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/head-anti-graft-body-offers-resign-guatemalan-crisis-190115213233514.html">to shut down the CICIG</a>.</p>
<p>But neither is likely to change the position of a government whose real concern is the CICIG’s investigations which, since 2007, have exposed 60 criminal organisations and helped to imprison 300 people – including senior officials and executives. The CICIG has played an important role in making Guatemalans aware of the corruption of those who govern them – and only time will tell how far Morales will go to stifle it. </p>
<p>Either way, the international community must pay close attention to Latin America. After a period of democracy and relative stability, the spectre of authoritarianism appears to be returning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sanne Weber does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The CICIG’s investigators have highlighted corruption in the country – and its leaders don’t like it.Sanne Weber, Research fellow at the International Development Department, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1098642019-01-16T01:02:33Z2019-01-16T01:02:33ZGuatemala in crisis after president bans corruption investigation into his government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/253896/original/file-20190115-152983-5px42u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Guatemalans overwhelmingly support the United Nations-backed corruption investigation known as CICIG. President Jimmy Morales is trying to ban prosecutors from the country.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Guatemala-Corruption/c879d4c0812442e99a8462c07c4bc448/36/0">AP Photo/Moises Castillo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For months, Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales has been trying to <a href="http://time.com/5496408/guatemala-withdraws-un-anti-corruption-commission/">stop a United Nations-backed anti-corruption investigation</a> into his government.</p>
<p>Morales, a stand-up comedian who ran for president in 2015 with the slogan “<a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2015/0915/How-Guatemala-s-anti-corruption-drive-is-shaking-its-political-elite">Not corrupt, nor a thief</a>,” is accused of campaign finance violations. His administration is under <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/01/10/an-attack-on-corruption-sleuths-in-guatemala-is-also-aimed-at-judges">investigation</a> by the <a href="https://www.cicig.org/?lang=en">International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala</a>, an influential international corruption panel called “CICIG” in Spanish. </p>
<p>Last September, Morales told CICIG investigators they were no longer welcome in Guatemala and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/05/guatemala-cicig-ivan-velasquez-jimmy-morales-ban">denied a visa to lead prosecutor Ivan Velasquez</a>. The courts quickly ruled that Velasquez must be allowed <a href="https://www.jurist.org/news/2018/09/guatemala-constitutional-court-orders-return-of-un-investigator/">to re-enter Guatemala to continue his work</a>, but Morales has refused.</p>
<p>On Jan. 6, immigration officers sent by Morales <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/guatemala-bars-entry-sponsored-corruption-investigator-60193382">arrested Velasquez’s deputy prosecutor at the Guatemala City airport</a>. The Constitutional Court <a href="https://www.jurist.org/news/2019/01/guatemala-constitutional-court-allows-entry-to-un-anti-corruption-official-after-being-detained-at-capital-airport/">ordered his release</a> and reiterated that <a href="https://www.jurist.org/news/2019/01/guatemala-top-court-blocks-un-teams-removal/">the government must let the CICIG continue its investigation</a>. </p>
<p>Instead, Guatemala’s solicitor general began impeachment <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-guatemala-corruption-crisis-20190110-story.html">proceedings against three of the court’s five justices</a>, saying they had exceeded their authority by ruling on foreign affairs issues. </p>
<p>More is at risk than the United Nations’ work. The showdown between Morales and Guatemalan courts has plunged the country into crisis, and its democracy <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/424496-forget-the-border-wall-a-coup-in-guatemala-is-the-real-emergency">hangs in the balance</a>.</p>
<h2>What is the CICIG?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46813367?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cp7r8vglg01t/guatemala&link_location=live-reporting-story">United Nations</a>, <a href="https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/01/11/declaration-by-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of-the-eu-on-the-unilateral-decision-by-the-government-of-guatemala-to-withdraw-from-the-cicig-agreement-with-the-united-nations/">European Union</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sir-alan-duncan-statement-on-guatemala-and-the-cicig">United Kingdom</a> have all condemned Morales’ moves to oust the CICIG.</p>
<p>Protests that started small – a few thousand <a href="https://www.elnuevoherald.com/ultimas-noticias/article224472780.html">demonstrators marching through Guatemala City over the Jan. 12 weekend</a> – are now <a href="https://elperiodico.com.gt/nacion/2019/01/15/manifestaciones-rechazan-decisiones-contra-la-cicig/">spreading across the country</a>.</p>
<p>Morales has reason to be worried. </p>
<p>The CICIG was <a href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-what-cicig">invited into Guatemala</a> in 2007 to eliminate “<a href="https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-what-cicig">clandestine illegal armed groups</a>” – criminal networks that have infiltrated its government. These shadowy webs of corruption, the subject of my <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/achilles-heel-of-democracy/729655118E5C21315EA768CE19291434">2017 book on Guatemala</a>, include smuggling rings with ties to the military and presidents and drug traffickers who bribe or threaten judges. </p>
<p>As a result, criminals operate with impunity in Guatemala. Around <a href="https://repository.uchastings.edu/hwlj/vol29/iss1/7/">90 percent</a> of all crimes go unpunished – which is actually an improvement over the country’s <a href="https://www.un.org/press/en/2009/090224_CICIG.doc.htm">2007 impunity rate of 98 percent</a>.</p>
<p>The CICIG is a bold and unprecedented experiment to improve justice in Guatemala by outsourcing it. Working <a href="https://dpa.un.org/en/mission/cicig">hand in hand with the Guatemalan attorney general’s office</a>, CICIG prosecutors have helped convict <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/guatemala-gives-the-u-n-the-boot-11547411965">310 government officials</a>, high-profile business leaders and crime bosses. </p>
<p>In 2015, the CICIG helped Attorney General Thelma Aldana bring down <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/09/guatemala-president-otto-perez-molina-cicig-corruption-investigation">Guatemalan President Otto Pérez Molina for corruption</a> – a stunning achievement in a country where politicians have long been untouchable. Pérez Molina and his vice president, Roxana Baldetti, were forced to resign after <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2015/09/people-power-guatemalan-spring-150903075327898.html">massive street protests</a> erupted following an investigation into a massive customs scandal.</p>
<p>Both remain in jail awaiting trial for fraud and taking bribes, though Baldetti was already sentenced to more than 15 years in an <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45806524">unrelated embezzlement case</a>. </p>
<p>CICIG prosecutors currently have 84 major investigations underway, according to its <a href="https://www.cicig.org/casos-listado/">website</a>. Most of them include large numbers of defendants. One of them focuses on President Morales. </p>
<p>By banning the CICIG, Morales is trying to avoid his predecessor’s fate. </p>
<p>He may also be hoping to help his son and brother, who are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-corruption/trial-against-guatemalan-presidents-brother-son-begins-idUSKCN1BA2Z8">being tried for defrauding the government</a> before <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-guatemala-corruption-idUSKBN1522NS">Morales even took office</a>. </p>
<h2>A slow-motion coup</h2>
<p>Morales has his supporters. <a href="https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2018/5/citing-bitkov-family-s-mistreatment-rubio-places-hold-on-u-s-funds-to-international-commission-on-impunity-in-guatemala-cicig">U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio</a>, for example, has suggested that CICIG prosecutors have at times overstepped their mandate.</p>
<p>But many observers in Guatemala argue that Morales’ actions <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-guatemala-crisis-20190112-story.html">amount to a kind of slow-motion coup</a>.</p>
<p>Rather than overthrowing a democratically elected leader using military force, they say, Morales is using Guatemala’s armed forces to <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/guatemala-army-cicig-backlash/">eliminate threats to his power</a> and dispatching his attorney general to hobble the judiciary for opposing his actions.</p>
<p>The damage done may be <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/06/27/coups-aint-what-they-used-to-be/">just as dramatic</a> – and violent – as a military coup. </p>
<p>The CICIG is credited with contributing to Guatemala’s dramatic <a href="https://www.wola.org/analysis/guatemala-glimmer-hope-violence-reduction-region/">reduction in homicides</a>, which <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=GT">dropped</a> from 45 killings per 100,000 residents in 2009 to 23 per 100,000 residents in 2016. Other factors have certainly <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/anti-graft-body-cicig-behind-guatemala-homicide-drop/">helped</a>, including changes made to how Guatemalan police patrol gang-infiltrated neighborhoods.</p>
<p>But the Crisis Group, which studies international conflict, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/central-america/guatemala/70-saving-guatemalas-fight-against-crime-and-impunity">calculates</a> that between the convictions it has won and the judicial system reforms it has implemented, the CICIG may have prevented as many as 4,500 homicides in Guatemala since 2007.</p>
<p>Guatemala is still deeply troubled. Parts of its government remain <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/brief/guatemala-elites-criminal-links-political-vulnerability/">corrupted by organized crime</a>, and it is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-life-is-like-in-some-of-the-worlds-most-dangerous-countries-2018-10#7-philippines-14">one of the world’s deadliest countries</a>.</p>
<p>But like many Central America observers, I believe the CICIG has undoubtedly <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/amazing-case-proved-latin-americas-crackdown-corruption-real">strengthened the rule of law</a>, holding powerful people responsible for the corruption and impunity that has long defined life in Guatemala.</p>
<p>This progress may end if Morales <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/09/world/americas/guatemala-corruption.html">succeeds in banning its investigations</a>. </p>
<h2>The global consequences of Guatemala’s constitutional crisis</h2>
<p>The consequences of Guatemala’s crisis will go well beyond its borders. </p>
<p>More undocumented migrants detained crossing the United States’ southern border come from Guatemala <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/12/us/politics/immigration-families-southwest-border.html">than from any other country</a>. The collapse of its democracy would surely send even more desperate residents <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/central-america-border-immigration/563744/">fleeing</a>. </p>
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<p>Morales’s crusade against the CICIG also endangers similar <a href="https://www.cfr.org/report/lessons-guatemalas-commission-against-impunity">anti-corruption efforts</a> in neighboring countries. </p>
<p>Inspired by the achievements of the CICIG, Honduras in 2016 worked with the Organization of American States to launch the <a href="http://www.democracy-lab.org/publications/2016/9/20/what-is-maccih">Mission to Support the Fight against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras</a>, a young but promising attempt to strengthen the rule of law there. </p>
<p>El Salvador, the most violent Central American country, is <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/brief/el-salvador-anti-corruption-body/">hoping to do the same soon</a>. </p>
<p>Guatemala’s crisis weakens these international partnerships. If a president can terminate an investigation when it threatens his power, can justice ever really be served?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel E. Bowen receives funding from the Gerda Henkel Foundation.</span></em></p>Guatemalan President Jimmy Morales is defying a constitutional court order to release a UN-backed prosecutor his government arrested and allow his corruption investigation to continue.Rachel E. Bowen, Associate Professor of Political Science, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.