tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/climate-change-in-africa-31115/articlesClimate change in Africa – The Conversation2018-10-14T10:36:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1021402018-10-14T10:36:40Z2018-10-14T10:36:40ZThe private sector, agriculture and climate change. Connecting the dots<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240021/original/file-20181010-72130-1yih4iq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rice fields in Madagascar. There is a project in the country to increase climate resilience in the rice sector. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Agriculture plays a key role in food security in Africa. It is also crucial to the economic sector, accounting for between 40%-65% <a href="https://agra.org/aasr2016/public/assr.pdf">of jobs</a>. Farming is expected to remain an important livelihood for decades to come. </p>
<p>At the same time, agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-hitting-african-farmers-the-hardest-of-all-40845">very vulnerable to climate change</a>. Agriculture was <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5687e.pdf">a priority</a> under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions/ndc-registry">commitments</a> made by sub-Saharan countries to the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a>. </p>
<p>The widely held view is that the public sector alone <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17565529.2013.821053">can’t meet the cost of the continent’s commitments</a>. Already there’s a mismatch between the investment needs for adaptation and the finance available. As a result, there is increasing interest in bringing in capacity and resources from the private sector to achieve countries’ climate change commitments. </p>
<p>Against this background, <a href="https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/what-roles-could-private-actors-play-in-agricultural-adaptatation-in-sub-saharan-africa.pdf">our recent research</a> examined the role of private-sector players in helping agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa adapt to a changing climate. This work is part of <a href="https://www.sei.org/projects-and-tools/projects/prindcissa-private-sector-finance-for-ndc-implementation-in-sub-saharan-africa/">wider research</a> that looked at ways to give the private sector incentives to help countries in the region achieve their Paris Agreement goals. </p>
<p>Our work shows that these projects for agriculture vary widely. Some use public finance to raise awareness of climate risks and adaptation opportunities. Their aim is to stimulate future private investment. Others channel public finance through private players which are hired to provide goods and services. </p>
<p>Our analysis suggests that the public sector could do more to engage the private sector. Enabling and encouraging private investment, particularly in infrastructure, is expected to have <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5778e.pdf">high pay-offs</a>.</p>
<h2>Some examples</h2>
<p>We found that private actors – smallholder farmers as well as small and medium-sized private businesses – are beginning to play a role in a wide variety of key adaptation strategies. Their actions include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Introducing irrigation and water management systems </p></li>
<li><p>Improving weather and seasonal forecasting systems – and ensuring that farmers can use them</p></li>
<li><p>Introducing drought- and heat-resistant crop varieties, </p></li>
<li><p>Adopting new “climate-smart” farming techniques, and </p></li>
<li><p>Expanding finance insurance options for farmers.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>In Namibia, a <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/-/climate-resilient-agriculture-in-three-of-the-vulnerable-extreme-northern-crop-growing-regions-crave-">project</a> is showing how small-scale farmers can pay for agricultural index-based insurance. The aim is to develop a viable business model. The insurance policy uses a parameter (or index), such as rainfall estimates or vegetation cover, to determine when a payment should happen to cover the loss after an extreme event, like drought.</p>
<p>In Mozambique, a <a href="http://projects.worldbank.org/P131049/climate-resilience-transforming-hydro-meteorological-services?lang=en&tab=overview">project</a> is strengthening hydrological and meteorological information services to deliver climate information at the local level. Services include hydro-meteorological information for farmers; flood forecasting and early-warning systems, and weather service alerts in coastal areas. Television, radio and telephone companies are crucial as they deliver the forecasts and warnings. And, as the users, commercial farms and maritime transport companies are part of the design and implementation of new hydro-met services.</p>
<p>In Madagascar, a <a href="https://www.adaptation-fund.org/project/madagascar-promoting-climate-resilience-in-the-rice-sector/">project</a> is increasing climate resilience in the rice sector. Through public-private partnerships, it promotes the use of modified fertilisation practices and drought and pest-resistant varieties of seeds. </p>
<p>These examples suggest that the private sector is getting involved in agricultural adaptation to climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. </p>
<p>But there are still two important barriers to overcome.</p>
<p>First, <a href="https://www.sei.org/publications/will-private-finance-support-climate-change-adaptation-in-developing-countries-historical-investment-patterns-as-a-window-on-future-private-climate-finance/">developing countries can find it difficult to attract private investment</a> to meet their most urgent needs. Second, low awareness of climate risk is also <a href="https://www.sei.org/publications/private-finance-rwanda/">a barrier for private involvement in adaptation</a>. But business opportunities do exist, and a growing number of adaptation projects are now demonstrating their potential.</p>
<h2>Getting the private sector involved</h2>
<p>There are five ways in which policymakers could make it more attractive for private actors to engage in agriculture adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa.</p>
<p><strong>Provide more clarity.</strong> Policymakers should be clear in stating which private actors – and in which capacity – they want involved in their agriculture adaptation projects and programmes. This would help accelerate and scale up private investment. The private sector is, obviously, diverse. Different actors respond to different incentives. Without clarity, projects may struggle to identify opportunities for private-sector involvement. </p>
<p><strong>Involve private actors at the design stage.</strong> By identifying ways to involve private actors already at the design stage, project developers can create stronger partnership and more effective ways to promote investment.</p>
<p><strong>Look for opportunities along the value chain.</strong> Increasing agricultural productivity is not the only possible target. Improvements in the harvest and commercialisation stages also offer potential for involving private sector actors.</p>
<p><strong>Demonstrate potential.</strong> Demonstrating the commercial viability of adaptation strategies is vital. Public funding should therefore be focused on feasibility assessments or arranging pilot projects.</p>
<p><strong>Scrutinise results.</strong> Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation projects should include ways to assess private-sector involvement – when it works and when it fails. Transparency in this kind of information can help identify future opportunities.</p>
<p>Private actors already play a role in agriculture adaptation projects in sub-Saharan Africa. But more work is needed to identify effective policies to increase their involvement, and remove existing barriers.</p>
<p><em>Nella Canales, a research fellow at the Stockholm Environment Institute was a co-author on this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/102140/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard J.T. Klein leads the project PRINDCISSA, which is funded by the Swedish Energy Agency.</span></em></p>The private-sector plays an increasing role helping agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa adapt to a changing climate.Richard J.T. Klein, Senior Research Fellow and Professor of Geography, Climate Policy and Development, Stockholm Environment InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1046442018-10-09T13:50:10Z2018-10-09T13:50:10ZWhat latest assessment on global warming means for southern Africa<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239910/original/file-20181009-72100-13qi0ge.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Okavango Delta in Botswana.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The release this week of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipcc-1-5-report-heres-what-the-climate-science-says-104592">special report</a> on global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels marks a critical point in climate negotiations. Billed in the media as “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45653099">life changing</a>,” the report illustrates how crossing the ever-nearer threshold of 1.5°C warming will affect the planet, and how difficult it will be to avoid overshooting this target.</p>
<p>The special report takes a worldwide look at the growing impacts of climate change. For climate change “hotspots” – hot, dry and water-stressed countries like Botswana and Namibia in southern Africa – local warming and drying will be greater than the global average. </p>
<p>The report underscores the urgent need for countries like Botswana and Namibia to prepare and adapt – and do so quickly. The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C, by the turn of the century will be <a href="http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf">extremely challenging</a>. To date, mitigation pledges by nations fall far short of what is needed, with global temperatures on track for a <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer">warming of 3.2°C</a> by 2100. Under an increasing emissions trajectory, the 1.5°C threshold could be breached as early as the <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f8/pdf">next decade</a>, and the 2°C mark the decade after. </p>
<p>Our <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aac2f8/meta">analysis</a> of the effect in Botswana and Namibia of 1.5°C, 2.0°C and higher levels of global warming shows that they’re likely to get hotter, drier and more water-stressed. The sooner southern African countries prepare and implement adaptation strategies the better. </p>
<h2>Impact</h2>
<p>Botswana and Namibia already know the challenges of droughts and floods. A few years ago, Botswana’s capital city Gaborone was on the brink of <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000680">running out of water</a> as the country battled its worst drought in 30 years. Neighbouring Namibia has battled with recurrent and devastating droughts and floods in recent years, especially in its northern regions, where most of the population live. </p>
<p>Global warming of 1.5°C would lead to an average temperature rise above the pre-industrial baseline in Botswana of 2.2°C and Namibia 2.0°C. At 2.0°C global warming, Botswana would experience warming of 2.8°C. Namibia would warm by 2.7°C.</p>
<p>Changes in rainfall are also projected to shift. At 1.5°C of global warming, Botswana would receive 5% less annual rainfall, and Namibia 4% less. At 2.0°C global warming, annual rainfall in Botswana would drop by 9%, with annual rainfall in Namibia dropping by 7%.</p>
<p>Both countries would also see an increase in dry days. At global warming of 1.5°C, projections show Botswana having 10 more dry days per year. That number rises to 17 extra dry days at 2.0°C global warming. For Namibia, dry days increase by 12 at global warming of 1.5°C, and by 17 at 2.0°C. </p>
<p>The impact of global warming on extreme events is also evident. Both countries can expect roughly 50 more days of heatwaves at 1.5°C global warming, and about 75 more heatwave days at 2.0°C global warming.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.assar.uct.ac.za/theme-1-point-5-degree">Tables</a> show the projected impact of hotter temperatures. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239890/original/file-20181009-72117-cl2l3j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239890/original/file-20181009-72117-cl2l3j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239890/original/file-20181009-72117-cl2l3j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239890/original/file-20181009-72117-cl2l3j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239890/original/file-20181009-72117-cl2l3j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239890/original/file-20181009-72117-cl2l3j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239890/original/file-20181009-72117-cl2l3j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What global warming of 1.5°C.
and higher means for Botswana.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239891/original/file-20181009-72106-nzwyd1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239891/original/file-20181009-72106-nzwyd1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239891/original/file-20181009-72106-nzwyd1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239891/original/file-20181009-72106-nzwyd1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239891/original/file-20181009-72106-nzwyd1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239891/original/file-20181009-72106-nzwyd1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239891/original/file-20181009-72106-nzwyd1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What global warming of 1.5°C.
and higher means for Namibia.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vulnerable sectors</h2>
<p>The effects of higher global and local temperatures will be felt in various sectors key to the prosperity of people and economies in both countries. </p>
<p>Understanding what this will mean for sectors like agriculture, health and water, is crucial for adaptation planning and thinking about what must be done, and by when.</p>
<p>In a hotter, drier future there will be less domestic water available. Runoff in Botswana’s Limpopo catchment is projected to decline by 26% at 1.5°C global warming, and by 36% at 2.0°C. In Namibia, evapotranspiration rates increase by 10% at 1.5°C global warming and by 13% at 2.0°C, leading to reduced river flows and drier soils.</p>
<p>Agriculture is particularly vulnerable, with potential drops in crop yields and increased livestock losses. In Botswana, at 1.5°C global warming maize yields could drop by over 20%. At 2.0°C warming, yields could slump by 35%. Rain-fed agriculture is already marginal across much of the country, and anticipated climate change may well make current agricultural practices unviable at 1.5°C and above. In Namibia, productivity of cereal crops is expected to drop by 5% at 1.5°C and by 10% at 2.0°C</p>
<p>The impacts of global warming on human health are also essential to consider. Heat stress is projected to become an increasingly greater threat. At 1.5°C of global warming, Namibia and Botswana can expect roughly 20 more days of heat stress exposure in a year. At 2.0°C, in Namibia this doubles to around 40 more days of heat stress exposure.</p>
<p>All of these factors become even more severe should the 2.0°C threshold be overshot. </p>
<h2>Urgent action is needed</h2>
<p>The progressively serious climate impacts at 1.5 and 2.0°C in these countries demands concerted action, both locally and internationally. Leaders from countries such as Botswana and Namibia cannot let-up on the global stage in pushing for nation states to make good on, and further improve, their pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement. As the <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/">IPCC report</a> shows, early and decisive action will not only reduce the risks of overshooting the Paris temperature targets, but also slow down the rates of change, making local adaptation easier to roll out.</p>
<p>At the same time, highly exposed countries such as Namibia and Botswana need to anticipate and plan for quite rapid changes in local weather and climate. They need an acceleration in developing adaptation strategies in a way that works for all people and across the economies of these countries. The time for pilot adaptation projects and experiments is over, and the moment to start mainstreaming climate resilience into public, private and community sectors has arrived.</p>
<p>In parallel, governments, scientists and development practitioners need to think longer term, to consider what overshooting the 1.5°C and 2°C targets really means for adaptation. At some stage, adaptation of these systems may not be enough, and complete transformations to new livelihoods that are suitable in a 2°C+ world may be needed. </p>
<p><em>Brendon Bosworth, a communications officer with ASSAR, based at the ACDI, University of Cape Town contributed to writing this article. Tiro Nkemelang, a PhD student at ACDI and Roy Bouwer, a research assistant at ACDI, contributed to the underlying analysis.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/104644/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark New receives funding from the IDRC, UK AID, AXA Research Fund, BNP Paribas Foundation, and the NRF in South Africa, others. This work was carried out under the Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions project (ASSAR). ASSAR is one of four research programs funded under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the U.K. Government’s Department for International Development (DfID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. The views expressed in this work are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of DfID and IDRC or its Board of Governors.</span></em></p>For hot, dry and water-stressed countries like Botswana and Namibia, high temperatures and droughts will be more severe than the global average.Mark New, Director, African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/949962018-05-01T11:02:34Z2018-05-01T11:02:34ZWhy blaming conflicts in Africa on climate change is misguided<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215956/original/file-20180423-133862-6ucpvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Drought conditions can foster conflict but this is rare.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The role of water crises in conflicts in places like Syria, Nigeria and Iran often feature in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/climate/water-iran.html">media</a> and <a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/09/18/water-wars/">policy</a> outlets. Many believe that climate change could spark future conflicts. But research shows that most conflicts are driven by <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0068-2">factors</a> other than the effects of climate change. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378014001344">Some research suggests</a> that droughts actually reduce, rather than cause, conflict. <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ajae/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ajae/aax106/4862547">Similarly, in a recent paper</a> I find that violent conflict across Africa is more frequent, on average, during times of higher agricultural productivity than during periods of scarcity. It is therefore misguided to blame violence on climate change alone. </p>
<p>That’s not to say that there aren’t situations in which drought conditions can foster conflict. One example is in <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ajae/article/96/4/1157/2737500">parts of Somalia</a>. But this happens much less frequently than conventional wisdom might suggest. More often than not, climate change, which can trigger droughts and floods, is just one of many possible contributing factors.</p>
<h2>Climate factors and violence</h2>
<p>Some experts argue that Nigeria, Syria and Somalia all fit a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/climate/water-iran.html">pattern</a> in which droughts and water crises have led to greater political instability. But these countries are also characterised by weak governance, ineffective institutions, high levels of corruption and failing economies. These are all <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/ethnicity-insurgency-and-civil-war/B1D5D0E7C782483C5D7E102A61AD6605">strong determinants</a> of conflict and violence. </p>
<p>Climate change might worsen conditions, but the real reasons many people in these countries do not have enough to eat are war and corruption. Take the examples of four countries – Nigeria, Yemen, South Sudan, and Somalia – which all faced the risk of <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2017/03/flashing-red-state-global-humanitarian-affairs">severe famine</a> in 2017. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://guardian.ng/news/need-for-food-arms-spurs-boko-haram-attacks-in-nigeria/">Nigeria</a>, conflict with Boko Haram displaced many people, cut food production, closed markets and pushed up food prices. The rebels frequently took whatever food was left by force. </p>
<p>In Yemen, the civil war between Houthi Islamic extremists and loyalist forces made it hard for millions of people to produce or find enough food, and blocked humanitarian aid. </p>
<p>In South Sudan, the government repeatedly blocks access to humanitarian assistance to marginalise certain ethnic groups and generate revenue by taxing aid workers.</p>
<p>War and political corruption in these countries are destroying crops and cutting off flows of aid and trade. If climate change has any effect on these conditions, it is an addition rather than the main cause.</p>
<p>Only in Somalia, the fourth country at risk for acute starvation, were food shortages the result of <a href="https://www.usip.org/blog/2017/07/drought-al-shabab-threaten-somalias-recovery-plan">drought</a>. But even here, ongoing conflict and decades of political incapacity add to the impact of drought. <a href="https://www.stabilityjournal.org/articles/10.5334/sta.bm/">Evidence</a> also suggests that the last prolonged drought, in 2011, may have actually undermined the military capacity of Al-Shabaab, a rebel group. </p>
<p>Of the 19 countries the <a href="http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7821e.pdf">FAO defines</a> as being in a food crisis, all are currently affected by conflict and violence.</p>
<p>Food riots, similar to the ones recently observed in Iran, tend to happen when food prices rise sharply after <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/How-Oil-Prices-Affect-The-Price-Of-Food.html">oil price increases</a>, or when food prices are <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/making-sense-of-food-price-volatility/">volatile</a>. Although climate change might influence food price volatility, strong changes in volatility are the result of <a href="http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1554/3023.short">other causes</a>.</p>
<p>Moreover, even if food and water crises can <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/22/where-and-why-food-prices-lead-to-social-upheaval/?utm_term=.07b20238ea86">trigger protests and riots</a> in developing cities, these riots are more often the result of social and political tensions that build up in rapidly urbanising authoritarian countries. To make matters worse, governments in these countries are often unable or unwilling to shield people from the effects of high food prices, for example by using food subsidies. </p>
<p>Food and water shortages caused by drought and prolonged heat waves might have an increasingly important role to play in warfare in the coming decades, but that is far from certain. What is certain is that climate change is not a universal cause of armed conflict. </p>
<p>In some contexts, climatic variations might tip the scale towards the escalation of violence. But the impact of climate change is far smaller than that of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/ethnicity-insurgency-and-civil-war/B1D5D0E7C782483C5D7E102A61AD6605">low economic development</a>, <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0022002795039001001">authoritarianism</a>, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oep/article/56/4/563/2361902">lax enforcement of property rights</a>, and a <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/25193823?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">lack of social safety nets</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94996/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The research by Koren mentioned in this article was supported by a Jennings Randolph Peace Scholar Award from the United States Institute of Peace. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Institute of Peace. </span></em></p>It is misguided to blame armed conflict and violence on climate change alone.Ore Koren, Assistant Professor, Indiana University Bloomington; International Security Fellow, Dartmouth CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/784212017-07-09T11:00:17Z2017-07-09T11:00:17ZWhy the future of Africa’s forests and savannas is under threat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177123/original/file-20170706-5026-qkev0u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tropical forests in the Congo for example have exceptionally high animal and plant species.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Tropical Africa has two distinct features – rain forests which are dominated by trees and savannas which are dominated by grasses. Both depend on rainfall quantity and seasonality. Seasonality measures how constant the distribution of rainfall over the course of a year is – in other words how long the dry season is. </p>
<p>Forests located close to the Equator receive lots of rainfall constantly <a href="http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0005/000580/058054eo.pdf">over the year</a>, while savannas receive less rainfall and only during the wet season. </p>
<p>Forests and savannas are expected to be strongly affected in the coming decades by changing rainfall patterns, including increased dry periods and decreasing annual rainfall. These changes are already being felt. In some areas of Burkina Faso <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02560.x/abstract">desertification is increasing</a>, while <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0081">in Chad</a> rainfall is increasing. These changes are being linked to climate change <a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n4/full/nclimate1716.html">across the world</a>.</p>
<p>Forests and savannas are expected to be affected greatly by these changes because they depend heavily on rainfall quantity and seasonality. </p>
<h2>Forests and savannas are important ecosystems</h2>
<p>Savannas and forests function very differently but they are important ecologically and economically. They sustain a lot of plant and wildlife. Tropical forests have exceptionally high animal and plant species. They also play a crucial role in regulating the global climate, for example by storing <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6045/988">lots of carbon</a>. And people make a living off forests.</p>
<p>Most of sub-Saharan Africa’s agriculture takes place <a href="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.28.1.517">in savanna areas</a> which support most of the continent’s cropland and pasture areas. Importantly, savannas such as <a href="http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/156">the Serengeti National Park in Tanzania</a> are also home to the largest animal populations on Earth. </p>
<p>But future changes in the climate could have an impact on these symbolic landscapes. For example, decreasing rainfall in forest areas, and increasing number of droughts, may cause <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037811270900615X">trees to die</a>. In savanna areas, more rain may increase <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0081">tree growth and cover</a>.</p>
<p>The way people are using the land can also have a big impact on forests and savannas. For example changing agricultural practices toward intensification and conversion of <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/017/i3242e/i3242e.pdf">very large areas to cropland</a> has been shown to have a major impact. Thus, conservation efforts need to start taking into account the effects of climate change as well as the potential impact of agricultural conversion to target forests and savannas that are at greatest risk.</p>
<h2>The ecological importance of fire</h2>
<p>The Congo Basin is Africa’s main tropical forest block covering more than <a href="http://rainforests.mongabay.com/congo/">178 million hectares</a> – a third of the size of the Amazon. Tropical forests are also present in East and West Africa but in smaller areas. Trees in these tropical forests are very sensitive to disturbances such as fires which are exacerbated by droughts. Indeed, increasing drought can enable fires to spread from savannas into the adjacent forests. This is what happened during the massive wildfire in the <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2016/03/massive-wildfire-rips-through-congo-rainforest-is-logging-to-blame/">Congo Basin in January 2016</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177121/original/file-20170706-26465-udypdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177121/original/file-20170706-26465-udypdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/177121/original/file-20170706-26465-udypdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177121/original/file-20170706-26465-udypdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177121/original/file-20170706-26465-udypdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177121/original/file-20170706-26465-udypdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177121/original/file-20170706-26465-udypdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/177121/original/file-20170706-26465-udypdd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">savannas need [disturbances like fire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For their part, savannas need <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7069/abs/nature04070.html">disturbances like fire</a> but repeated fires limit the number of trees, and thus the tree cover, and <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/351/6269/120">promotes biodiversity</a>. </p>
<h2>Responding to climate change and land use</h2>
<p>The prediction is that <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13299/full">rainfall will increase</a> in some savanna areas of Central African Republic. This will lead to an increase in tree cover <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13299/full">within savannas</a>. If not compensated by fire landscape opening, this tree cover increase could be an issue because it would limit the quantity of grasses accessible for livestock and wild herbivores. </p>
<p>The predictions for the drier regions are more variable. In some areas of the Sahelian region, like Chad, it’s predicted that rainfall will increase, similarly leading to an <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13299/full">increase in tree cover</a>. But this is likely to have a positive effect because it will mean more productivity for grasses and trees. In other areas, like in Burkina Faso, the length of the dry season may increase which could <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02560.x/abstract">drive desertification</a>.</p>
<p>In the case of the Congo Basin, an increase in seasonality could lead to a decrease in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13299/full">tree cover</a> because it’s likely to limit tree growth and increase tree mortality. </p>
<p>But climate change is not the only threat that forests and savannas are facing. The way people are using these two ecosystems is also having an impact. For example, new development policies suggest that more savanna areas should be targeted <a href="https://siteresources.worldbank.org/DEC/Resources/Rising-Global-Interest-in-Farmland.pdf">for biofuel production</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13299/full">Future simulations</a> suggest that increasing cropland and pastureland by 2070 will modify tree cover in both forests and savannas more than climate change. Environmental policies are crucial because they have the power to influence where large conversions to agriculture take place. This is particularly important for areas of low population densities and where agricultural practices are still traditional, as <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/srep41393?WT.feed_name=subjects_ecology">in the Central African Republic</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78421/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie C. Aleman receives funding from Yale University and Graduate Women In Science. </span></em></p>Forests and savannas are expected to be strongly affected in the coming decades by changing rainfall patterns. But land use will also have a major impact.Julie C. Aleman, Postdoctoral research associate working on savanna and forest distribution, Yale UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/704882016-12-19T14:11:26Z2016-12-19T14:11:26ZTrump’s threat on climate change pledges will hit Africa hard<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150340/original/image-20161215-26068-v1kxhc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President-elect Donald Trump's stance on climate change is very different to Barack Obama's. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Kevin Lamarque</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>US President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the US Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt, publicly questions the existence of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/07/trump-scott-pruitt-environmental-protection-agency">climate change</a>. He, and presumably Trump himself, opposes President Barack Obama’s environmental initiatives to limit greenhouse gases that cause global warming.</p>
<p>US withdrawal from these agreements would imperil Africa. It is the region least responsible, most vulnerable, and least able to afford the cost of adapting to global climate change. Southern Africa is already suffering effects of global warming rates <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/thetimes/article604096.ece">twice as high as the global average</a>.</p>
<p>If Trump forsakes US support for the <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">2015 Paris Climate Accord</a>, endorsed by 193 members of the United Nations (UN), as well as Obama’s bilateral climate <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/09/03/fact-sheet-us-china-cooperation-climate-change">agreement with China</a>, the resultant rise of global warming and extreme weather events will wreak havoc throughout Africa. Global social media will amplify the human dramas and dangers of forced migrations, viral epidemics and related deadly conflicts as credible evidence of global warming’s impact continues to accumulate. China and the US are the world’s <a href="http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-01-14/dirty-deeds-worlds-biggest-polluters-country">biggest emitters of greenhouse gases</a>.</p>
<p>So it is incumbent on African governments, individually and with the <a href="https://www.au.int/">African Union</a>, the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/">UN</a> and civil society networks globally and in the US, to pressure the Trump administration to keep US commitments.</p>
<h2>The outlook isn’t good</h2>
<p>Trump’s personal convictions about the threat and causes of global warming remain obscure. Several of his key cabinet appointees’ views are less so. And the cabinet hasn’t had this concentration of representatives from the old Republican corporate and military establishment since <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/1600/presidents/ronaldreagan">Ronald Reagan</a> governed in the 1980s.</p>
<p>Most are ideologically conservative, older, white, Christian men hostile to government regulation, including those related to the environment. </p>
<p>Reagan succeeded in overturning <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/1600/presidents/jimmycarter">Jimmy Carter’s</a> early attempts to promote clean energy and other <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=7561">environmental reforms</a>. </p>
<p>Today, the consequences for Africa of such reversals could be catastrophic.</p>
<p>The nomination of <a href="https://theconversation.com/rex-tillerson-and-the-new-transnational-oligarchy-70367">Rex Tillerson</a>, ExxonMobil’s chairman and CEO, to become the next Secretary of State is of immediate concern to environmental scientists. This is particularly the case given ExxonMobil’s history of concealing the <a href="https://www.washintonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/12/10/who-is-rex-tillerson...">truth about global warming</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-15/donald-trump-formally-annouces-rick-perry-to-lead-energy-depart/8121876">Governor Rick Perry of Texas</a>, nominated to become Energy Secretary, is another proponent of reliance on fossil fuels. The climate effects of these have caused major disruptions to communities in Africa. The drought plagued and conflict prone weak states of the Sahel are <a href="http://www.oecd.org/swac/publications/47234320.pdf">especially vulnerable</a>. Meanwhile the better known legacy of environmental damage by US and other oil companies in the Niger Delta continues to cause hardship and conflict. </p>
<h2>Lessons from the past</h2>
<p>Mobilising popular opposition to US actions that are hurtful to Africans is never easy. But here too an analogy to the Reagan years may be instructive. In 1986 bipartisan majorities in Congress <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2010/09/house-overrides-reagan-apartheid-veto-sept-29-1986-042839">overrode Reagan’s veto</a> of the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act. This imposed sanctions on South Africa, with conditions requiring national liberation for their removal.</p>
<p>Curbing global warming for the benefit of Africa and humanity might seem less urgent than ending apartheid in the 1980s. And were international sanctions to punish the polluter they would be against the US. Yet in other ways comparing the global anti-apartheid movement to one seeking freedom of relief from global warming may be similar.</p>
<p>Popular and bipartisan opposition to apartheid took many years to coalesce. But a popular and powerful president was finally overpowered. Global warming already has 64% of the US public “worried/care a great deal” according to a <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/190010/concern-global-warming-eight-year-high.aspx">recent Gallup poll</a>. </p>
<p>Trump won the White House narrowly in America’s archaic electoral college and <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/why-electoral-college-landslides-are-easier-to-win-than-popular-vote-ones/">lost the popular vote</a> by a greater margin – 2.8 million – than any US president. </p>
<p>Although Africa has never been among the US’s foreign policy priorities, public support development and humanitarian assistance have enjoyed broad public support, not only among liberals and those who voted for Trump’s opponent. Major programmes to benefit Africa’s people in public health, agriculture, clean energy, and education have been rare examples of <a href="http://www.time.com/4487397/bipartisan-success-congress/">bipartisan support</a> in an otherwise mostly dysfunctional US Congress. A campaign to help Africans adapt to climate change could resonate publicly and politically in ways that would benefit America as well, as with the anti-apartheid movement.</p>
<p>Passing even popular legislation takes time. The 1986 anti-apartheid bill was first introduced in 1972. By contrast, global warming relief for Africa is on a fast track. In 2014, Barack Obama committed the US to make a major down payment of $US 3 billion as part of a special $100 billion programme for African and other low income countries seriously affected by climate change caused by the US and other <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/15/us/politics/obama-climate-change-fund-3-billion-announcement.html?_r=0">global polluters</a>. </p>
<p>Trump and his team appear poised to rescind this commitment. Successfully opposing such a decision would be an early big victory in what is shaping up to be a major test for Trump’s leadership at home and abroad.</p>
<h2>African leadership</h2>
<p>African leadership of this campaign is essential. South Africa is in a good position to speak with conviction. It is one of the countries most seriously affected by climate change and is also home to Africa’s leading climatologists. </p>
<p>But to stand up to the unilateral fact-free flailing of Trump and his climate change denialists will require more than evidence.</p>
<p>Global warming raises a moral imperative to help those of us who are most vulnerable, least responsible for contributing to it and most in need. For these reasons we should all draw inspiration and be driven by the <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/02/10/stremlau.mandela/">“stubborn sense of fairness”</a> that the late Nelson Mandela credits his father for instilling in him.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70488/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John J Stremlau is affiliated with Wits University. </span></em></p>If Trump forsakes US support for the 2015 Paris Climate Accord as well as Obama’s bilateral climate agreement with China, the resultant rise of global warming will wreak havoc throughout Africa.John J Stremlau, Visiting Professor of International Relations, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/649292016-09-13T15:45:49Z2016-09-13T15:45:49ZClimate change health risks will hit the poor hardest – so what can be done?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137203/original/image-20160909-13356-1jqz45u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The livelihood of this fishing community in Nigeria is being threatened as a result of climate change.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Akintunde Akinleye </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Discussions about climate change and the effects it will have on public health and the global burden of disease have been long in the making. These consequences are now starting to come to fore. </p>
<p>Several examples have recently played out. For example, in Russia, an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/01/anthrax-outbreak-climate-change-arctic-circle-russia">anthrax outbreak</a> in the remote region of Siberia meant that nomadic communities and thousands of reindeer were affected. The outbreak was due to the bodies of infected people buried in 1941 defrosting and releasing anthrax spores into the water system as the permafrost defrosts with global warming.</p>
<p>Closer to home, <a href="http://bhekisisa.org/article/2016-08-30-00-malawis-sick-prisons-inmates-go-hungry-as-budgets-dwindle-and-food-prices-soar">prisoners are starving in Malawian jails</a> and suffering from acute severe malnutrition as a result of food shortages due to erratic climate conditions from both droughts and floods. Malawi has since declared a state of national disaster.</p>
<p>These unanticipated public health consequences of unsustainable development reminds the world that the issues are not in the distant future, but instead face us now.</p>
<p>Climate change <a href="http://www.climateandhealthalliance.org/ipcc">exerts its influence on public health</a> through three main mechanisms.</p>
<p>First, the effects of extreme weather events such as heat, storms, floods or fire that directly cause loss of life or illness. </p>
<p>Second, there are indirect effects of climate change on natural systems. This leads to, for example, changes in disease vectors such as mosquitoes that spread malaria, availability of fresh water, crop survival, or the concentration of pollen in the air. </p>
<p>Third, the effects on economic and social systems as people migrate or conflict over scarce resources.</p>
<p>These <a href="https://www.environment.gov.za/sites/default/files/reports/ltasphase2_climateinformation_earlwarning.pdf">effects can be moderated</a> by the presence of early warning systems and effective disaster and emergency medical services. </p>
<p>More affluent communities with more resources will be better able to adapt and withstand these effects. Having strong primary healthcare systems will also increase the resilience of communities. </p>
<p>But in sub-Saharan Africa many communities do not have these protective mechanisms in place, and will be particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137204/original/image-20160909-13383-iyl4ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/137204/original/image-20160909-13383-iyl4ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137204/original/image-20160909-13383-iyl4ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137204/original/image-20160909-13383-iyl4ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137204/original/image-20160909-13383-iyl4ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137204/original/image-20160909-13383-iyl4ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/137204/original/image-20160909-13383-iyl4ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electricity pylons in front of cooling towers at the Lethabo Thermal Power Station, an Eskom coal-burning power station near Sasolburg in the northern Free State province.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/Siphiwe Sibeko</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Disease and environmental health</h2>
<p>The World Health Organisation has recently published a new report on the burden of disease due to <a href="http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/204585/1/9789241565196_eng.pdf?ua=1">modifiable environmental risks</a>. The report estimates that 23% of all deaths globally can be attributed to environmental risks. This percentage rises to 26% in children. </p>
<p>These environmental risks include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>air, water and soil pollution;</p></li>
<li><p>ultraviolet radiation;</p></li>
<li><p>the built environment;</p></li>
<li><p>the occupational environment;</p></li>
<li><p>agricultural methods; and</p></li>
<li><p>climate and ecosystem changes. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Children, the elderly, and those living in low- and middle-income countries are most at risk. </p>
<p>The diseases that make the greatest environmentally attributable contribution to the global burden of disease are stroke, ischaemic heart disease, diarrhoea, lower respiratory tract infection, cancers and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. And over the last ten years the contribution of non-communicable diseases has significantly increased.</p>
<p>An example in South Africa is from Mpumalanga’s Highveld, which has 12 coal fired power stations. The <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2014-06-19-power-stations-are-deadly-internal-report-reveals">collective air pollution</a> from these power stations has been reported as being responsible for just over half of the deaths from respiratory disease and cardiovascular disease in the area.</p>
<figure>
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/120382016" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" webkitallowfullscreen="" mozallowfullscreen="" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Living differently</h2>
<p>Sustainable development has been <a href="http://www.cmej.org.za/index.php/cmej/article/view/2345/2206">defined</a> as: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The United Nations’ <a href="http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/70/1&Lang=E">Sustainable Development Goals</a> recognise that improving the wellbeing and health of people requires an approach that protects the planet from degradation. This is required because there are ecological limits to development that is based on ever-increasing consumption.</p>
<p>But the climate crisis is just one of the manifestations of the world’s collective inability to live sustainably. </p>
<p>There is also a loss of ecosystems and the biodiversity. This compromises the natural services they render to humanity: food, fresh water, clean air, building materials and even new medicines. </p>
<p>Economic inequality is increasing. It is reported that <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressreleases/2016-01-18/62-people-own-same-half-world-reveals-oxfam-davos-report">62 people now</a> own as much wealth as 50% of the planet’s population. </p>
<p>At the same time, we have seen unprecedented population growth and increasing <a href="http://www.cmej.org.za/index.php/cmej/article/view/2345/2206">urbanisation</a> that is characterised by the <a href="http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Highlights/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf">growth of slums or informal settlements</a>.</p>
<h2>The 21st-century challenge</h2>
<p>Humanity’s biggest challenge in the 21st century may be its ability to find a way of living sustainably and to tackle the crises of both planetary and public health. This will require action on a global scale by world leaders and by a change in collective consciousness.</p>
<p>There are some encouraging signs. Brazil <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-climatechange-ratification-idUSKCN11I20C">has joined</a> China and the US in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/03/breakthrough-us-china-agree-ratify-paris-climate-change-deal">ratifying the Paris agreement</a> on tackling climate change. China and the US are responsible for 38% of global emissions. </p>
<p>World religious leaders have also joined forces to promote a change of consciousness as part of a “<a href="http://seasonofcreation.org/">season of creation</a>”. </p>
<p>It can be summed up in the video message from Pope Francis, who says the relationship between poverty and the fragility of the planet requires another way of managing the economy and measuring progress, conceiving a new way of life.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bob Mash is affiliated with the Global Green and Healthy Hospital network.</span></em></p>The unanticipated public health consequences of unsustainable development reminds the world that the issues are not in the distant future, but instead face us now.Bob Mash, Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.