tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/climate-council-7315/articlesClimate Council – The Conversation2023-09-14T20:05:32Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2130662023-09-14T20:05:32Z2023-09-14T20:05:32ZTim Flannery’s message to all: rise up and become a climate leader – be the change we need so desperately<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548177/original/file-20230913-48731-y1vy63.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C2858%2C1586&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Totem Films</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As humanity hurtles towards a climate catastrophe, the debate has shifted – from the science to solutions. We know we need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. But progress has been painfully slow. </p>
<p>It’s clear the world is lacking climate leadership. So what makes a great climate leader and why are we not seeing more of them?</p>
<p>For two years now I’ve been on a journey, a quest if you like, to find good climate leaders. This is the subject of my new documentary, <a href="https://climatechangersmovie.com">Climate Changers</a> with director Johan Gabrielsson.</p>
<h2>Missed opportunities and wasted time</h2>
<p>Saul Griffith is an engineer who wants to “electrify everything”. The co-founder of non-profit group <a href="https://www.rewiringaustralia.org/">Rewiring Australia</a> decried the “dearth of political leadership” when he told us:</p>
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<p>We haven’t had any head of state, of any major nation, positively and proactively engage on climate as an emergency, as an opportunity […] we haven’t had a Churchill or Roosevelt or John F Kennedy ‘let’s go to the moon’ that says: ‘here’s a threat, here’s an opportunity, here’s a vision for how we collectively get there’.</p>
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<p>If we’d been on the right emissions reduction trajectory a decade ago, we’d have more time to deal with the problem. But we’ve <a href="https://theconversation.com/failure-is-not-an-option-after-a-lost-decade-on-climate-action-the-2020s-offer-one-last-chance-158913">wasted ten years</a>. </p>
<p>Over that period, probably 20% of all of the <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/environmental-impacts/climate-change/state-of-the-climate/greenhouse-gases">carbon pollution</a> we’ve ever put into the atmosphere has been emitted. </p>
<p>A lot of money was made creating those emissions, and that has only benefited a few. But of course the consequences of the emissions will stay with humanity for many, many, many generations.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Introducing Climate Changers.</span></figcaption>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/group-therapy-helps-scientists-cope-with-challenging-climate-emotions-208933">Group therapy helps scientists cope with challenging 'climate emotions'</a>
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<h2>A different style of leadership</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, modern Western politics doesn’t select for great leaders. But there are a few scattered about.</p>
<p>One such example is <a href="https://100climateconversations.com/matt-kean/">Matt Kean</a> in New South Wales. In 2020, as state energy minister and treasurer during the Liberal Berejiklian government, he managed to get the Nationals, the Liberals, Labor and the Greens all supporting the same bill, on addressing climate change through clean energy. In my opinion, that is true leadership. </p>
<p>As Kean told us: </p>
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<p>What you’ve got to do if you’re going to try and solve the challenge is find those areas of common ground. […] it was about finding the big things that everyone could agree on and designing policy that brought everyone together. And I think that was the key to our success.</p>
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<p>Climate leadership requires humility. It requires listening to your political antagonists as well as your allies. </p>
<p>That sort of leadership is rare in our political system. And yet you see it in Indigenous communities and in the Pacific nations where I’ve done a lot of work over the years, that sort of leadership is much more common. Because people understand they need to be consultative. And transparent.</p>
<p>West Papuan activist and human rights lawyer, Frederika Korain, and Solomon Island Kwaio community leader and conservationist, Chief Esau Kekeubata, are shining examples. They show individual bravery and diligence, but they’re also humble and listening.</p>
<p>On the subject of leadership, they share similar sentiments with Australia’s Dharawal and Yuin custodian and community leader Paul Knight.</p>
<p>It’s about bringing other people along with you. It’s not some strong-arm thing, like you often see at our federal level, in our politics. It’s about listening, developing a consensus. It takes time, a lot of effort, and you’ll probably never get full consensus, but we’ll get most of the way there, convincing people. </p>
<p>I’ve seen Chief Esau work. He says very little in the most important meetings, but when someone says something he thinks is on the right track, he’ll say, “Oh, that’s really interesting. Can you can you tell us a bit more”. He directs the conversation. </p>
<p>So in a species like ours, that’s what true leadership consists of. Intelligence, persistence, bravery bordering on heroism sometimes, because climate change is the enemy of everyone.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/study-finds-2-billion-people-will-struggle-to-survive-in-a-warming-world-and-these-parts-of-australia-are-most-vulnerable-205927">Study finds 2 billion people will struggle to survive in a warming world – and these parts of Australia are most vulnerable</a>
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<h2>What’s holding us back?</h2>
<p>There’s a very strong relationship in Australia between political power and fossil fuels. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-walk-the-talk-on-climate-labor-must-come-clean-about-the-future-for-coal-and-gas-183641">links are interwoven</a>, with people moving <a href="https://theconversation.com/revealed-the-extent-of-job-swapping-between-public-servants-and-fossil-fuel-lobbyists-88695">from the fossil fuel industry to politics and back</a>. </p>
<p>And we still allow people to become <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/19/life-earth-wealth-megarich-spending-power-environmental-damage">extremely rich</a> at the expense of all of us. I think that’s what’s holding us back. </p>
<p>I expect those who are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/08/17/greenhouse-emissions-income-inequality/">very wealthy</a>, who have made their money in fossil fuels, imagine they’ll be able to retire to some gated community and live their life in luxury. </p>
<p>But we all depend on a strong global economy and trade, which is <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/impact-climate-change-global-gdp/">under threat</a> as the climate breaks down. </p>
<p>The idea that you can somehow isolate yourself from the environment and the rest of society is one of the great failings of human imagination that has brought us so close to catastrophe.</p>
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<h2>Rise up</h2>
<p>I do see individual people rising to the occasion. And the story is usually somewhat similar: people realise they could lose something very precious. We heard it time and time again in the making of this documentary. </p>
<p>For community campaigner Jo Dodds the trigger was the Black Summer bushfires, the near-loss of her house and the loss of her neighbours’ houses. For former US Vice President Al Gore it was having his son in critical care for 30 days, having to put aside his politics and think about what his life was really about. Those sort of moments do bring out great climate leaders. Even Kean talked about bringing his newborn son home from hospital, shrouded in bushfire smoke. </p>
<p>The level of public awareness is far greater now than when I came to this issue in the early 2000s. </p>
<p>The most important thing I can do now is inspire and enable others to be climate leaders. Because we need a diversity of voices out there. We need women. We need younger people. We need people from the Pacific Islands, and First Nations people.</p>
<p>This documentary is about trying to inspire and encourage emerging leaders to give us the diversity of voices we need to make a difference. It’s never too late – we can always prevent something worse from happening. </p>
<p><em><a href="https://climatechangersmovie.com">Climate Changers</a> launches nationally with a livestreamed Q&A on September 17 and will <a href="https://climatechangersmovie.com/screenings/">screen in cinemas</a> and at community events.</em></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-urgently-need-100bn-for-renewable-energy-but-call-it-statecraft-not-industry-policy-213351">We urgently need $100bn for renewable energy. But call it statecraft, not 'industry policy'</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Flannery is Ambassador for RegenAqua, which uses seaweed and river grass to clean up wastewater before it flows out to sea and on to the Great Barrier Reef. He consults for the not-for-profit environmental charity, Odonata.
He is Chief Councillor and Founding Member of the Climate Council, Governor at WWF-Australia and Member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.</span></em></p>What makes a great climate leader and why are we not seeing more of them? I’ve been searching for good examples of climate leaders. This is the subject of our new documentary, Climate Changers.Tim Flannery, Honorary fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1988732023-01-31T07:49:04Z2023-01-31T07:49:04ZWe’ve lost a giant: Vale Professor Will Steffen, climate science pioneer<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507270/original/file-20230131-17-151dp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=134%2C74%2C9850%2C4910&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>One of Australia’s leading climate scientists, Professor Will Steffen, died on Sunday. Steffen has been hailed as a brilliant climate thinker, selfless mentor and gifted communicator. He is survived by his wife Carrie and daughter Sonja. Steffen’s colleagues and friends remember him here.</em></p>
<h2>John Finnigan - Honorary Fellow, CSIRO</h2>
<p>The last time I talked to Will was in early January. We had a drink or two before I left for a few weeks work in the United States. He was looking forward with optimism to an operation to get rid of the cancer he had dealt with for a year so he could get on with his life. Unfortunately, there were complications. </p>
<p>The world has lost an enormously influential environmental scientist. And I’ve lost a very dear friend. </p>
<p>Will Steffen and I were close friends for more than 40 years. I came from England to Canberra in the 1970s, and Will came from the US. At that time, it seemed like everyone in Canberra was from somewhere else. As a result, we formed a kind of family. We’d look after each other’s children, or do babysitting so the others could go cross-country skiing. Will and his wife Carrie looked after our kids and we looked after theirs. </p>
<p>I was a scientist at CSIRO when Will joined us as an editor and information officer. Very soon, his obvious scientific intelligence meant he was headhunted to the nascent <a href="http://www.igbp.net">International Geosphere Biosphere Program</a>, an international consortium of scientists. This was the early 1980s, when the field now known as Earth system science was just taking off. Will proved enormously effective, not just as a manager but as a synthesiser and broadcaster of his group’s ideas.</p>
<p>Many of those ideas are now mainstream but back then, they were radical. Ideas such as the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053019614564785">Great Acceleration</a> – the sudden increase in our impact on the environment since the 1950s, brought about by trends such as spiking fossil fuel use, and population growth. </p>
<p>After Nobel laureate Paul Crutzen <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/415023a">proposed</a> that the world had entered a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, Will ran with the concept. He helped popularise the idea that our collective activity is now a force as potent as natural forces in shaping our planet.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dawn-of-the-anthropocene-five-ways-we-know-humans-have-triggered-a-new-geological-epoch-52867">Dawn of the Anthropocene: five ways we know humans have triggered a new geological epoch</a>
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<p>Will was also a skilled rock and ice climber who climbed mountains all over the world. In 1988 he was part of the ANU expedition which climbed Nepal’s 7,162 metre Mount Baruntse, an icy spire east of Everest. Of his climbing, Will once said:</p>
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<p>Climbing is like science. To get up a hard rock or ice climb, just like when you’re solving a problem in the carbon cycle, you have to be ultra-focused, you have to make holistic decisions and you have to be absolutely aware of your surroundings. When you come off a big climb, you really appreciate the beauty of what’s around you. That’s the buzz you get in science when you solve a big problem and suddenly see how it all fits together.</p>
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<p>In the best of ways, Will could also be a stubborn bugger. He refused to let things defeat him – whether on the mountain or taking on climate deniers. On the latter, he was never accommodating. And he’d never fall for their leading questions. He knew how easy it was to edit an interview to twist his words and was smart enough to insist interviews were live. </p>
<p>I remember one interview where he was asked if he accepted carbon dioxide was good for humanity. I might have made the mistake of saying “yes, at certain levels”. But Will knew how to avoid those traps. He said something like: “No. That’s the wrong way to think of it.” He never got boxed in. </p>
<p>During the decade of political climate wars in Australia, Will got a lot of abuse on social media. At one stage, his office at the Australian National University had to be locked down due to death threats. It didn’t stop him. </p>
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<img alt="people rally and hold signs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507284/original/file-20230131-24-elj8ul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Steffen shrugged off the social media abuse he copped during the political climate wars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alan Porritt</span></span>
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<p>He never saw deniers or obstructionist politicians as his personal enemies. He didn’t waste his time on the negativity of climate politics. While he was angry at the way the selfish actions of vested interests were sacrificing the future of coming generations, including his daughter, Sonja, he did not despair. Instead, he channelled his anger into action. </p>
<p>When the Abbott government <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abbott-shuts-down-climate-commission-20130919-2u185.html">shut down the Climate Commission</a> in 2013, Will and his colleagues – Tim Flannery, Lesley Hughes and Amanda McKenzie – didn’t just quit. Instead they crowd-sourced A$1 million in a week and founded the Climate Council, now a leading independent source of climate advice in Australia. </p>
<p>As well as a hugely influential scientist, Will was a really nice bloke and a true friend. He was calm, not confrontational. He had a wry sense of humour and could see the funny side, even when the climate politics were crazy. </p>
<p>Would he have been happy about recent efforts to speed up action on climate change? Yes and no. </p>
<p>He felt, as I do, that things are much further advanced and much worse than generally recognised. He felt limiting global warming to 1.5°C was already well out of reach and that it was going to be very difficult to keep it under 2°C. </p>
<p>While he was heartened by recent progress, he knew it was all but impossible to change fast enough to keep warming to a safer level. But he knew we had to try. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-stumbling-last-minute-dash-for-climate-respectability-doesnt-negate-a-decade-of-abject-failure-169891">Australia's stumbling, last-minute dash for climate respectability doesn't negate a decade of abject failure</a>
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<span class="caption">Steffen knew keeping warming to a safe level was all but impossible – but he knew we had to try.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Pep Canadell - Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO</h2>
<p>Will Steffen took global environmental research to a whole new level.</p>
<p>Beginning when fax machines were the main tool to communicate across multiple time zones, Will developed unparalleled skill in scientific diplomacy and leadership. His work helped create research networks across the world involving tens of thousands of scientists. </p>
<p>In the 1980s, environmental research labs and individual scientists were mostly still working on their own. The new scientific networks spurred on by Will’s brokering made globally coordinated research possible. This was necessary to understand the planetary changes caused by human activity.</p>
<p>Will achieved this global impact through positions such as executive director of the highly influential International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP). His most powerful tools were his never-ending appetite for the very latest science, his kind nature and genuine people skills, his focus and hard work ethic, and his exceptional communication abilities which let him convey the gravity of complex problems and the need for immediate action.</p>
<p>I came to Australia in the late 1990s to take the job Will had left when he moved to Sweden to become the director of the IGBP. I was never able to fill his shoes. But I have tried, with colleagues, to build on his work in bringing together many strands of research.</p>
<p>Will was a visionary in many ways. He understood the environmental problems we were trying to solve spanned many academic disciplines and were deeply interconnected. Few people had his ability to absorb so many diverse types of science and to work with the diverse research communities whose expertise was urgently needed as part of the solutions. </p>
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<h2>Steve Lade - ARC Future Fellow, Australian National University</h2>
<p>I first encountered Will during one of his talks in Canberra. He was an incredible public speaker and a role model for how a scientific specialist could broaden themselves into a holistic thinker on the most important topics imaginable. Hearing him as a PhD student changed the direction of my career.</p>
<p>My scientific interactions with Will began in the mid-2010s as a researcher at the Stockholm Resilience Centre, where he was a frequent visitor. Will had recently co-developed the <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259855">planetary boundaries framework</a>, now one of the most influential ideas in sustainability science. </p>
<p>These boundaries show us the environment is not boundless and elastic, able to absorb all that we throw at it or take from it. Our planet has limits – and if we push too far, we will <a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned-130211">break something</a>, leading to dramatic changes to the only life-bearing planet we know of. </p>
<p>Planetary boundaries are just one of his discipline-changing contributions to sustainability science - others include co-developing the concept of the Great Acceleration and promoting the concept of the Anthropocene. His ideas were grounded in his view of the Earth as a complex, interconnected, evolving system. </p>
<p>Viewing the world <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-019-0005-6">in this way</a> helps us understand what we have done to our environment – and how to begin fixing the problems. </p>
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<p>Will’s scientific, policy and advocacy efforts were directed at helping us recognise our role as planet-shapers. He knew we must transform our mindset from exploitation to stewardship if we, and our planet as we know it, are to survive. </p>
<p>His career is an exemplar of how to be an interdisciplinary, inclusive, caring and socially responsible sustainability scientist. Let us continue his legacy.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/failure-is-not-an-option-after-a-lost-decade-on-climate-action-the-2020s-offer-one-last-chance-158913">'Failure is not an option': after a lost decade on climate action, the 2020s offer one last chance</a>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mountaineer and scientist Will Steffen said climbing was similar to science: “That’s the buzz you get in science when you solve a big problem and suddenly see how it all fits together”John Finnigan, Leader, Complex Systems Science, CSIROPep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, Climate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROSteven J Lade, Resilience researcher at Australian National University, Stockholm UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/793372017-06-19T08:31:50Z2017-06-19T08:31:50ZAre heatwaves ‘worsening’ and have ‘hot days’ doubled in Australia in the last 50 years?<p>The release of the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/energy/national-electricity-market-review">Finkel report</a> has refocused national attention on climate change, and how we know it’s happening. </p>
<p>On a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s4667968.htm">Q&A episode</a> following the report’s release, Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said we’ve seen:</p>
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<p>… worsening heatwaves, hot days doubling in Australia in the last 50 years.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Excerpt from Q&A, June 12, 2017. Quote begins at 2:12.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Her comment provides the perfect opportunity to revisit exactly what the research says on heatwaves and hot days as Australia’s climate warms.</p>
<h2>Examining the evidence</h2>
<p>When asked for sources to support McKenzie’s assertion, a Climate Council spokesperson said:</p>
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<p>Climate change is making hot days and heatwaves <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">more frequent</a> and <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/heatwaves-report">more severe</a>. Since 1950 the annual number of record hot days <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/eiab/State-of-climate-2010-updated.pdf">across Australia</a> has <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/extreme-weather-report">more than doubled</a> and the mean temperature has <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">increased by about 1°C</a> from 1910. </p>
<p>Specifically, there has been an increase of <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">0.2 days/year since 1957</a> which means, on average, that there are almost 12 more days per year over 35°C. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>You can read full response from the Climate Council <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-a-spokesperson-for-the-climate-council-79415">here</a>.</p>
<h2>How do we define ‘heatwaves’?</h2>
<p>Internationally, organisations use <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040%3C0762%3AOTDOAH%3E2.0.CO%3B2">different</a> <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014023/meta">definitions</a> for
heatwaves.</p>
<p>In Australia, the most commonly used definition (and the one used by the Climate Council) is from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). It provided the first <a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_060.pdf">national definition of a heatwave</a> in January 2014, describing it as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A period of at least three days where the combined effect of excess heat and heat stress is unusual with respect to the local climate. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are used in this assessment.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The BOM uses a metric called the “<a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_060.pdf">excess heat factor</a>” to decide what heat is “unusual”. It combines the average temperature over three days with the average temperature for a given location and time of year; and how the three day average temperature compares to temperatures over the last 30 days.</p>
<p>We can also characterise heatwaves by looking at their their <a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/technical-reports/CTR_060.pdf">intensity, frequency and duration</a>.</p>
<p>Researchers, including Australian climate scientist <a href="http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/ccrc-team/academic-research/sarah-perkins-kirkpatrick">Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick</a>, are trying to <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">standardise</a> the definitions of “heatwaves” and “hot days” and create a framework that allows for more in-depth studies of these events.</p>
<h2>Are heatwaves ‘worsening’?</h2>
<p>There’s not a large body of research against which to test this claim. But the <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">research we do have</a> suggests there has been an observable <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-doubled-the-likelihood-of-the-new-south-wales-heatwave-72871">increase</a> in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves in Australia. Research <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">published in 2013</a> found a trend towards more heat waves in Australia between 1951 and 2008.</p>
<p>A review paper published in 2016 assessed evidence from multiple studies and found that heatwaves are becoming <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0">more intense and more frequent</a> for the majority of Australia.</p>
<p>The following chart shows heatwave days per decade from 1950 to 2013, highlighting a trend toward more heatwave days in Australia over time:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174151/original/file-20170616-537-1jym1w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=603&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">We’ve seen a trend towards more heatwave days over Australia. Trends are shown for 1950-2013 in units of heatwave days per decade. Stippling indicates statistical significance at the 5% level.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al. (2017)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Have hot days ‘doubled’ in the last 50 years?</h2>
<p>While the number of “hot days” (as defined by the BOM) has not doubled over the last 50 years, as McKenzie said, the number of “record hot days” certainly has. “Record hot days” are days when the maximum temperature sets a new record high. </p>
<p>Given that McKenzie made her statement on a fast paced live TV show, it’s reasonable to assume she was referring to the latter. Let’s look at both figures. </p>
<p>The BOM <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/about/extremes.shtml">defines</a> “hot days” as days with a maximum temperature higher than 35°C. The BOM data show there were more hot days in Australia in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 than in any of the 50 years from 1966 to 2016 (the last year for which data are available). </p>
<p>In fact, there were more hot days in the years 2013-2016 than in any other year as far back as 1910. If we compare the decades 1966-76 and 2006-16, we see a 27% increase in the number of hot days.</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wsR9Z/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The following map shows the trend in the number of days per year above 35 °C from 1957–2015:</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174417/original/file-20170619-12433-1lcn082.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=539&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">Bureau of Meteorology</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A 2010 <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/eiab/State-of-climate-2010-updated.pdf">Bureau of Meteorology/CSIRO report</a> found <em>record hot days</em> had more than doubled between 1960 and 2010. That data was collected from <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/">the highest-quality weather stations across Australia</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174140/original/file-20170616-5839-7qvhq5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of record hot day maximums at Australian climate reference stations, 1960-2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/eiab/State-of-climate-2010-updated.pdf">Bureau of Meteorology 2010</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/174400/original/file-20170619-5835-6rwyjv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Number of days in each year where the Australian area-averaged daily mean temperature is extreme. Extreme days are those above the 99th percentile of each month from the years 1910-2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">Bureau of Meteorology</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why are heatwaves worsening, and record hot days doubling?</h2>
<p>The trend in <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries">rising average temperatures in Australia</a> in the second half of the 20th century is likely to have been largely caused by <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-3265.1">human-induced climate change</a>.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50673/full">record hot summers</a> and <a href="http://www.ametsoc.net/eee/2015/23_australian_s_heat.pdf">significant heatwaves</a> were also made much more likely by humans’ effect on the climate.</p>
<p>The human influence on Australian summer temperatures <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067448/full">has increased</a> and we can expect <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0183.1">more frequent hot summers</a> and <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1">heatwaves</a> as the Earth continues to warm.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science. </span></em></p>Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie told Q&A that heatwaves were ‘worsening’ in Australia and ‘hot days’ had doubled in the last 50 years. Let’s take a look at the evidence.Andrew King, Climate Extremes Research Fellow, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/794152017-06-19T08:31:27Z2017-06-19T08:31:27ZFull response from the Climate Council for an article on heatwaves and hot days in Australia<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/174403/original/file-20170619-5844-1phovhx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie, speaking on Q&A.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Q&A</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In relation to <a href="http://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-are-heatwaves-worsening-and-have-hot-days-doubled-in-australia-in-the-last-50-years-79337">this article</a> responding to Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie’s claim that heatwaves are “worsening” and “hot days” have doubled in Australia in the last 50 years, a spokesperson for the Climate Council gave the following responses. Questions from The Conversation are in bold. </p>
<p><strong>Could you please provide a source, or sources, to support Ms McKenzie’s statement that heatwaves are “worsening” and hot days have doubled in the last 50 years?</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>Climate change is making hot days and heatwaves <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1">more frequent</a> and <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/heatwaves-report">more severe</a>. Since 1950 the annual number of <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/inside/eiab/State-of-climate-2010-updated.pdf">record hot days</a> across Australia has <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/extreme-weather-report">more than doubled</a> and the mean temperature has <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">increased by about 1°C</a> from 1910. </p>
<p>Specifically, there has been an increase of <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/State-of-the-Climate-2016.pdf">0.2 days/year since 1957</a> which means, on average, that there are almost 12 more days per year over 35°C.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>What did Ms McKenzie mean by the terms “heatwaves” and “hot days”?</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>Hot days – the number of hot days, defined as days with maximum temperatures greater than 35°C.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/about/heatwave-forecast.shtml">Heatwaves</a> – three days or more of high maximum and minimum temperatures that is unusual for that location.</p>
<p>Furthermore, heatwaves have several significant characteristics. These include (i) frequency characteristics, such as the number of heatwave days and the annual number of summer heatwave events; (ii) duration characteristics, such as the length of the longest heatwave in a season; (iii) intensity characteristics, such as the average excess temperature expected during a heatwave and the hottest day of a heatwave; and (iv) timing characteristics, including the occurrence of the first heatwave event in a season.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Is there any other comment you would like us to include in the article?</strong></p>
<blockquote>
<p>Climate change – driven largely by rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from the burning of coal, oil and gas – is increasing temperatures and cranking up the intensity of extreme weather events globally and in Australia. </p>
<p>The accumulating energy in the atmosphere is <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-012-0441-5">affecting all extreme weather events</a>. Climate change is driving global warming at a rate <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000379/full">170 times faster</a> than the baseline rate over the past 7,000 years. </p>
<p>Temperature records tumbled yet again during Australia’s ‘Angry Summer’ of 2016/17. In just 90 days, more than 205 records were <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/angry-summer-report">broken around Australia</a>. </p>
<p>Heatwaves and hot days scorched the major population centres of Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney, as well as the rural and regional heartlands of eastern Australia. The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs61.pdf">most severe heatwave</a> of this Angry Summer began around January 31 and continued until February 12, with the highest temperatures recorded from February 9-12. </p>
<p>This heatwave was made <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-doubled-thelikelihood-of-the-new-south-wales-heatwave-72871">twice as likely</a> to occur because of climate change, while the extreme heat in New South Wales over the entire summer season was <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-changes-signature-waswrit-large-on-australias-crazy-summer-of-2017-73854">at least 50 times as likely</a> to occur because of climate change.</p>
<p>The severe heatwave of February 2017 that spread across much of Australia’s south, east and interior caused issues for the South Australian and New South Wales energy systems. In New South Wales around 3,000MW of coal and gas capacity was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/23/gas-fired-power-plants-failed-during-nsw-heatwave-report-reveals">not available when needed</a> in the heatwave (roughly the equivalent of two Hazelwood Power Stations). </p>
<p>In South Australia, 40,000 people were left without power for about half an hour in the early evening while temperatures were over 40°C. This heatwave highlights the vulnerability of our energy systems to extreme weather.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Read the article <a href="http://theconversation.com/factcheck-qanda-are-heatwaves-worsening-and-have-hot-days-doubled-in-australia-in-the-last-50-years-79337">here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Response from a spokesperson from the Climate Council in relation to an article on CEO Amanda McKenzie’s claims about worsening heatwaves and increasing numbers of hot days in Australia.Michael Courts, Deputy Section Editor: Politics + SocietyLucinda Beaman, FactCheck EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/654752016-09-28T20:12:39Z2016-09-28T20:12:39ZPutting carbon back in the land is just a smokescreen for real climate action: Climate Council report<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138205/original/image-20160919-28337-afksd3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Plants absorb carbon and store it in the land. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Blue mountains image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Just as people pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels, the land also absorbs some of those emissions. Plants, as they grow, use carbon dioxide and store it within their bodies. </p>
<p>However, as the Climate Council’s <a href="http://climatecouncil.org.au/land-carbon-report">latest report</a> shows, Australia’s fossil fuels (including those burned overseas) are pumping 6.5 times as much carbon into the atmosphere as the land can absorb. This means that, while storing carbon on land is useful for combating climate change, it is no replacement for reducing fossil fuel emissions. </p>
<p>Land carbon is the biggest source of emission reductions in Australia’s climate policy centrepiece – the <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Auctions-results/april-2016">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>. This is smoke and mirrors: a distraction from the real challenge of cutting fossil fuel emissions. </p>
<h2>Land carbon</h2>
<p>Land carbon is part of the active carbon cycle at the Earth’s surface. Carbon is continually exchanging between the land, ocean and atmosphere, primarily as carbon dioxide. </p>
<p>In contrast, carbon in fossil fuels has been locked away from the active carbon cycle for millions of years. </p>
<p>Carbon stored on land is vulnerable to being returned to the atmosphere. Natural disturbances such as bushfires, droughts, insect attacks and heatwaves, many of which are being made worse by climate change, can trigger the release of significant amounts of land carbon back to the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Changes in land management, as we’ve seen in Queensland, for example, with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/land-clearing-in-queensland-triples-after-policy-ping-pong-38279">relaxation of land-clearing laws</a> by the previous state government, can also affect the capability of land systems to store carbon.</p>
<p>Burning fossil fuels and releasing CO₂ to the atmosphere thus introduces new and additional carbon into the land-atmosphere-ocean cycle. It does not simply redistribute existing carbon in the cycle. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/7/349/2015/essd-7-349-2015.html">The ocean and the land absorb some</a> of this extra carbon. In fact, just over half of this additional carbon is removed from the atmosphere, and split roughly equally between the land and the ocean. However, this leaves almost half of the CO₂ emitted from fossil fuel combustion in the atmosphere. It’s this remaining CO₂ that is driving global warming.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138141/original/image-20160918-17036-405re9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138141/original/image-20160918-17036-405re9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138141/original/image-20160918-17036-405re9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138141/original/image-20160918-17036-405re9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138141/original/image-20160918-17036-405re9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138141/original/image-20160918-17036-405re9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138141/original/image-20160918-17036-405re9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Figure 2. Changes in the global carbon cycle from 1850 to 2014. Positive changes (above the horizontal zero line) show carbon added to the atmosphere and negative changes (below the line) show how this carbon is then distributed among the ocean, land and atmosphere.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from Le Quéré et al. 2015, data from CDIAC/NOAA-ESRL/GCP/Joos et al. 2013/Khatiwala et al. 2013.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although Australia’s land sector has absorbed more carbon than it has emitted over the past decade or two, this has been overshadowed by our domestic fossil fuel emissions and those from our exported fossil fuels. These are roughly <a href="http://escholarship.org/uc/item/8mh1t3q2#page-1">6.5 times greater</a> than the uptake of carbon by Australian landscapes. </p>
<p>Under international carbon accounting protocols, emissions are assigned to the country that burns the fossil fuels. However, many Australians are becoming increasing concerned about the ethics associated with exploiting our fossil fuels, no matter where they are burned. </p>
<p>In short, we’ve got a big problem that requires a global response, which includes a strong commitment from Australia.</p>
<h2>Falling short of our commitment</h2>
<p>Last December, Australia joined the rest of the world in pledging to do everything possible to limit global warming to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and furthermore to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Yet Australia lacks a robust, credible long-term plan to cut Australia’s CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. </p>
<p>Current climate change policies and practices in Australia allow for the use of land carbon “offsets” – that is, carbon taken up by land systems can be used to offset or subtract from fossil fuel emissions. For example, the government’s <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a> (ERF) provides financial incentives for organisations or individuals to adopt new practices or technologies that reduce or sequester greenhouse gas emissions. </p>
<p>Currently, <a href="http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/ERF/Auctions-results/april-2016">vegetation (land system) projects</a> represent the majority of ERF-accepted projects (185 out of 348). And yet, while storing carbon on land can be useful, it must be additional to, and not instead of, reducing fossil fuel emissions. Moreover, numerous critiques have <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-climate-targets-still-out-of-reach-after-second-emissions-auction-50519">questioned the effectiveness of the ERF</a>. </p>
<h2>Problems of scale</h2>
<p>We also have a problem of scale. <a href="http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/141119/ncomms6282/full/ncomms6282.html">Reducing emissions through land carbon methods</a> could save up to 38 billion tonnes of carbon globally by 2050 if combined with sustainable land management practices. By comparison, global carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion are currently around <a href="http://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/6/235/2014/essd-6-235-2014.pdf">10 billion tonnes per year</a>. </p>
<p>If this rate is continued, total fossil fuel emissions from 2015 to 2050 will be about 360 billion tonnes – nearly 10 times larger than the maximum estimated biological carbon sequestration of 38 billion tonnes over the same period.</p>
<p>It is now virtually certain that the carbon budget (the amount of carbon that can be produced while keeping warming below a certain level) will be exceeded. To meet the Paris 1.5°C aspirational target (and probably to meet the 2°C target) will require the use of <a href="https://theconversation.com/removing-co2-from-the-atmosphere-wont-save-us-we-have-to-cut-emissions-now-51684">negative emission technologies</a> throughout the second half of the century. </p>
<p>However, no proposed negative emission technology has yet been proven to be feasible technologically at large scale and at reasonable cost, so this approach remains an in-principle option only. For effective climate action, the emphasis must remain on reducing emissions from fossil fuel combustion. </p>
<p>Using land carbon to “offset” our fossil fuel emissions is ultimately a smokescreen for real climate action. </p>
<p><em>Our thanks to Jacqui Fenwick for co-authoring this article and the report.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65475/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia is pumping 6.5 times more carbon into the atmosphere than the land can absorb.Martin Rice, Head of Research, The Climate Council of Australia and Honorary Associate, Department of Environmental Sciences, Macquarie UniversityWill Steffen, Adjunct Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/658762016-09-22T05:02:08Z2016-09-22T05:02:08ZThe Great Barrier Reef’s ‘new normal’ is a forlorn sight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138722/original/image-20160922-11668-k8jh6r.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Months after the bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef, signs of the hoped-for recovery are scant.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kirsten Tidswell/Climate Council</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Images of this year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-pictures-a-close-up-look-at-the-great-barrier-reefs-bleaching-57495">coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef</a> shocked the world. Some tour operators <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/great-barrier-reef-signs-of-recovery-despite-major-coral-bleaching/news-story/e826d014a1b593efaf879cbb030804d5">expressed concern</a> that the extensive and <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-stats-are-bad-enough-without-media-misreporting-58283">sometimes simplistic</a> media coverage would hurt their businesses. </p>
<p>The reef was a hot-button issue during the federal election, with both major parties pledging funding for programs to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-coalitions-1-billion-funding-promise-for-great-barrier-reef-20160612-gphd86.html">enhance water quality</a>. Some politicians and tour operators <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/great-barrier-reef-signs-of-recovery-despite-major-coral-bleaching/news-story/e826d014a1b593efaf879cbb030804d5">expressed optimism</a> about the reef’s ability to recover.</p>
<p>It was the culmination of the longest, most extensive and most severe mass coral bleaching event ever recorded – an event that <a href="http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/analyses_guidance/global_coral_bleaching_2014-17_status.php">began in the North Pacific in mid-2014</a>. The Great Barrier Reef was not spared, this year experiencing its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/environment/doc/marine-heatwave-2016.pdf">hottest sea surface temperatures since records began</a> – 29.1°C in February (1.1°C above the 1961-90 average), 29.1°C (1.3°C above average) in March and 27.8°C (1.0°C above average) in April. </p>
<p>Evidence of bleaching was found on <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-stats-are-bad-enough-without-media-misreporting-58283">93% of the more than 900 individual reefs surveyed</a> that month, with the most severe impacts on the most pristine and isolated reefs of the far north. A preliminary estimate is that <a href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/media-room/coral-bleaching">22% of coral has now died</a>, with 85% of these deaths occurring between Cape York and just north of Lizard Island.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138719/original/image-20160922-11634-hjjc5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138719/original/image-20160922-11634-hjjc5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138719/original/image-20160922-11634-hjjc5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=700&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138719/original/image-20160922-11634-hjjc5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=700&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138719/original/image-20160922-11634-hjjc5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=700&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138719/original/image-20160922-11634-hjjc5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138719/original/image-20160922-11634-hjjc5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138719/original/image-20160922-11634-hjjc5h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=880&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map of the extent of coral bleaching observed on the Great Barrier Reef.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/247931/GBR-Coral-Mortality-13-June-2016.pdf">GBRMPA/AIMS/Commonwealth Government/Queensland Government</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the height of the bleaching, the Climate Council’s chief executive, Amanda McKenzie, and councillor Tim Flannery visited a reef off Port Douglas that local tour operators have long regarded as one of the best – the quintessential underwater wonderland.</p>
<p>Amanda and Tim reported their <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/reef-reality-check">shock and anger</a> at what they saw – extensive areas of corals bleached brilliant white (see the Climate Council’s <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/reefreport">May 2016 report</a> for a summary of the bleaching).</p>
<p>Several months later, the public’s shock and outrage has largely dissipated, but the question remains: are there signs that the reef’s hoped-for recovery is actually happening?</p>
<h2>Reef revisited</h2>
<p>This week, I joined Tim and Amanda in revisiting the site that had so dismayed them back in April. We were guided by the passionate conservationist <a href="https://www.greatbarrierreeflegacy.org/the-team/">John Rumney</a>, who has been diving here for more than 40 years. Marine scientist <a href="https://www.greatbarrierreeflegacy.org/the-team/">Dean Miller</a> was our videographer, above and below the water.</p>
<p>It was a beautiful day on the reef – calm and sunny. We noted that it was three years to the day since the incoming Abbott government <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-19/federal-government-scraps-climate-commission/4968816">sacked the Climate Commission</a> – which in turn led to the establishment of the ongoing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/tim-flannery-to-relaunch-climate-commission/4976608">Climate Council</a>.</p>
<p>Wet-suited, we slipped into the water and paddled towards the coral, our progress monitored by a drone buzzing overhead like some giant, demented mosquito.</p>
<p>So what did we find? Structurally, the reef appears intact, but the whole landscape is, well, subdued. While pockets of brilliant blue staghorn remain, much of the coral that bleached earlier this year is dead, the white skeletons filmed over by greenish-brown filamentous algae. </p>
<p>The fish community has also changed. Algae-eating species such as surgeon fish are doing well, but coral-feeders are hardly to be seen – I spotted only a single parrot fish in an hour of snorkelling. Meanwhile, the corals themselves seem to be showing symptoms of white spot and white band diseases, conditions associated with their diminished immune systems after the stress of bleaching.</p>
<p>The mood on the boat after the snorkelling was also subdued. The locals had not visited this particular reef since the height of the bleaching. Having now seen the extent of the coral death that has resulted, they fear this will eventually weaken the structural integrity of the reef, making it susceptible to future damage from storms.</p>
<p>This November’s spawning will hopefully reseed the reef, but our companions on the trip acknowledged that any repeated bleaching within the next few years will greatly reduce the chances of recovery.</p>
<p>As our boat pulled away from the reef, another took its place, full of tourists donning their snorkelling gear. I found myself hoping that most of them were first-timers – unencumbered by memories of the reef’s former glory.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138723/original/image-20160922-11668-1qwrrtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138723/original/image-20160922-11668-1qwrrtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138723/original/image-20160922-11668-1qwrrtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138723/original/image-20160922-11668-1qwrrtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138723/original/image-20160922-11668-1qwrrtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=315&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138723/original/image-20160922-11668-1qwrrtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138723/original/image-20160922-11668-1qwrrtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138723/original/image-20160922-11668-1qwrrtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As Climate Councillor Tim Flannery discovered, there is not yet much sign that the reef is bouncing back.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kirsten Tidswell/Climate Council</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Back in the real world, Australia’s greenhouse emissions continue to rise (by <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/7c0b18b4-f230-444a-8ccd-162c8545daa6/files/nggi-quarterly-update-dec-2015.pdf">1.1% in 2014-15</a>) and the government’s current target of reducing emissions 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030 is manifestly inadequate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-climate-change-authority-report-a-dissenting-view-64819">even if achieved</a>. </p>
<p>The continued burning of coal, oil and gas is estimated to have made the bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef this year <a href="https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-reef-bleaching-would-be-almost-impossible-without-climate-change-58408">at least 175 times more likely</a>. At present rates of climate change, this level of bleaching could occur <a href="https://www.climatescience.org.au/content/978-extreme-coral-bleaching-may-be-new-normal-2034">every two years by the 2030s</a>. That would make recovery between events virtually impossible.</p>
<p>The forlorn, diminished state of Australia’s greatest natural treasure must continue to serve as a visible warning of what we stand to lose. The new normal is a very sad place to be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65876/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Hughes is affiliated with WWF-Australia (Board member and member of Eminent Scientist Advisory Group), Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, Climate Council of Australia </span></em></p>Member of the Climate Council this week returned to one of the areas of the Great Barrier Reef that was worst affected by this year’s coral bleaching. What they found was far from encouraging.Lesley Hughes, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/339412014-11-09T19:29:33Z2014-11-09T19:29:33ZAustralia is losing ground as the climate policy race gains pace<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63946/original/7gbbckf2-1415336799.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=690%2C13%2C1453%2C592&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">China's embrace of technologies like solar roofs has seen it become the world's biggest renewable energy investor.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Council</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Climate change, now <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/02/g20-australia-makes-token-concession-on-climate-change-after-us-lobbying">belatedly added to the agenda</a> for this month’s G20 meeting in Brisbane, is a perennial topic whenever leaders gather for international summits.</p>
<p>That’s understandable, given that countries tend to have one eye on what others are doing to cut emissions. But host nation Australia, once one of the leaders on carbon policy, is now lagging behind the pack. </p>
<p>The top dogs – China, the United States and the European Union – are tackling climate change, and in the process they’re leaving Australia looking like a pup, according to the latest <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/globalresponsereport">Climate Council report</a>.</p>
<p>In the past 12 months China and the United States (the world’s largest greenhouse emitters) have stepped up their efforts to tackle climate change. Meanwhile, the European Union’s 28 nations (including some of the world’s largest economies) has almost achieved its 2020 target for reducing emissions and has <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/2030/index_en.htm">recently pledged to cut emissions by 40% by 2030</a>, as well as setting ambitious targets for renewable energy.</p>
<h2>China: from laggard to leader</h2>
<p>China recently introduced <a href="https://theconversation.com/china-heads-for-price-on-carbon-energy-market-overhaul-is-next-31119">seven emissions trading schemes</a>, in five cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shanghai and Shenzhen) and two provinces (Hubei and Guangdong), which together are home to a quarter of a billion people.</p>
<p>Collectively, China’s emissions trading schemes cover emissions equivalent to 1.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, making this the second-largest carbon market in the world, after the EU scheme (2.1 billion tonnes). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63948/original/2qymzxyx-1415337165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63948/original/2qymzxyx-1415337165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63948/original/2qymzxyx-1415337165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63948/original/2qymzxyx-1415337165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63948/original/2qymzxyx-1415337165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63948/original/2qymzxyx-1415337165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63948/original/2qymzxyx-1415337165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63948/original/2qymzxyx-1415337165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">China’s emissions trading network.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In September 2013, China introduced a new <a href="http://english.mep.gov.cn/News_service/infocus/201309/t20130924_260707.htm">Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control</a> to reduce air pollution from fossil fuels and limit the proportion of coal in China’s energy mix to 55% by 2040. </p>
<p>In 2013, for the first time, China installed more renewable energy capacity than fossil fuel or nuclear. In 2013, China invested US$56.3 billion (A$65.7 billion) in renewable energy – more than all of Europe combined – and now is home to 24% of the world’s renewable energy capacity. As befits the world’s biggest nation, China is now number one in installed renewable energy capacity, new installations, and investment.</p>
<h2>United States: stepping up to the plate</h2>
<p>Similarly, there have been positive developments by another global energy giant, the United States. In 2014, it <a href="https://theconversation.com/obamas-plan-for-coal-power-delivers-on-health-and-climate-27516">announced measures</a> to cut pollution from coal power plants by 30%. It is also on track to meet its international commitment to reduce emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. The <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/13/us-un-climate-idUSBREA1C04020140213">US submission</a> to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change set out an indicative pathway to a 30% in emissions in 2025 and a 42% reduction by 2030, in line with the goal to reduce emissions 83% by 2050. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regs-light-duty.htm#new1">Vehicle emissions standards</a> introduced nationally in 2011 are projected to cut US emissions by the equivalent of 6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2025 – the same as removing more than 85 million cars from the road. More than half of US states have renewable energy targets, and the United States is second in the world for installed renewable energy, which provided 12.9% of its electricity in 2013.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63949/original/j7ffhs4g-1415337224.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63949/original/j7ffhs4g-1415337224.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/63949/original/j7ffhs4g-1415337224.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63949/original/j7ffhs4g-1415337224.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63949/original/j7ffhs4g-1415337224.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63949/original/j7ffhs4g-1415337224.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63949/original/j7ffhs4g-1415337224.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/63949/original/j7ffhs4g-1415337224.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Renewable energy goals are growing ever more common among US states.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DSIRE 2014</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ten states – with a combined population of 79 million – are involved in emissions trading schemes. Nine of them are members of the <a href="http://www.rggi.org">Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative</a>, while the tenth, California (which would be the ninth biggest economy in the world if it were independent), has been running its own multi-sector cap-and-trade program since 2013. </p>
<h2>European Union: falling personal emissions</h2>
<p>As of 2012, the EU had cut its emissions by 19.2% relative to 1990 levels, putting its 2020 target of 20% well within reach. Emissions per capita have fallen dramatically, from 9.1 tonnes per person in 1990 to 6.8 tonnes in 2013. </p>
<p>The EU is now looking to redouble its efforts beyond 2020, with the EU Commission launching a <a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/145356.pdf">new framework</a> in January 2014 to set out even more ambitious 2030 targets for reducing emissions and increasing renewable energy. Renewable energy now provides 23.5% of the EU’s electricity needs. </p>
<h2>Global momentum</h2>
<p>Global momentum is building on action on climate change. As in the world’s biggest polluters, the most common types of action include carbon pricing, reducing pollution from coal-fired power plants, and investing in renewable energy. </p>
<p>The number of countries and sub-national jurisdictions putting a price on carbon continues to increase: 39 countries are putting a price on carbon – up from 35 in 2013. A further 26 countries are currently considering introducing carbon pricing. </p>
<p>Worldwide, the number of countries with policies supporting renewable energy also continues to increase. In early 2014, 144 countries had renewable energy targets and 138 had renewable energy support policies in place (up from 138 and 127, respectively, in the previous year). </p>
<p>Global efforts to drive down emissions will take time to impact on the overall global trajectory. Despite the positive progress, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase and Earth continues to warm: 2013 was the 37th year in a row of above-average global temperature. </p>
<p>In Australia heatwaves have <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-council-heatwaves-are-getting-hotter-and-more-frequent-23253">already become more extreme</a>, more frequent and longer-lasting, while bushfire conditions in many areas have <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-season-in-new-south-wales-grows-longer-and-stronger-33245">worsened</a>. The potential impacts on our nation are clear.</p>
<h2>Australia: two steps forward, one step back</h2>
<p>Once a leader on climate action, Australia is now lagging behind its major allies and trading partners. Recent uncertainty over the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/renewable-energy-target">Renewable Energy Target</a> has resulted in a 70% drop in investment in renewable energy in 2014 compared with last year. And any emission reductions achieved over the past few years in Australia’s electricity sector have effectively been <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-record-growth-in-electricity-sector-emissions-33772">cancelled out</a> since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/carbon-tax-repeal">repeal of the carbon pricing mechanism</a>. </p>
<p>Since the carbon price repeal, National Electricity Market emissions were up 4 million tonnes on the equivalent period last financial year. This increase in emissions corresponds with a growth in the share of coal in electricity generation, up from 69.6% in July 2014 to 76.4% in October 2014, while output from hydro power has dropped. </p>
<p>Just this week the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has <a href="https://theconversation.com/ipccs-most-important-report-sets-stage-for-paris-climate-talks-33713">reminded us</a> that deep cuts in emissions are needed if we are to keep global warming within 2C this century. The international community will have an opportunity to get serious about climate change at the UN Climate Summit in Paris in December 2015. </p>
<p>Before that, of course, is this month’s G20 Summit. Host nation Australia has a duty to contribute to global efforts to tackle climate change, but at the moment it’s not at the races and is no longer a top dog.</p>
<p><em>Martin Rice is the Research Manager of the Climate Council, an independent non-profit organisation. The latest Climate Council report on ‘Lagging Behind: Australia and the global response to climate change’ written by Tim Flannery, Gerry Hueston and Andrew Stock was published with donations from founding friends and supporters.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Rice does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change, now belatedly added to the agenda for this month’s G20 meeting in Brisbane, is a perennial topic whenever leaders gather for international summits. That’s understandable, given that countries…Martin Rice, Research Manager, The Climate Council of Australia and Honorary Associate, Department of Environment and Geography, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/332452014-10-21T19:15:51Z2014-10-21T19:15:51ZBushfire season in New South Wales grows longer and stronger<p>In New South Wales in 2013, bushfires in January and October collectively burned 768,000 hectares of bushland and destroyed 279 homes. Tragically, two people lost their lives and the damage was estimated at more than A$180 million. </p>
<p>NSW has been affected by bushfires throughout its history, but the frequency of these events is expected to grow. Just over a year on from the devastating <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydney-fires-caused-by-people-and-nature-19327">Blue Mountains bushfires</a>, the community and local fire services are paying close attention to the potential for worsening bushfire weather. </p>
<p>The Climate Council’s latest report, <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/be-prepared-climate-change-and-the-nsw-bushfire-threat">Be Prepared: climate change and the NSW bushfire threat</a>, emphasises that climate change has created a hotter Australia, and is already influencing all types of extreme weather events, including the risk of bushfires in NSW. </p>
<h2>Setting new records</h2>
<p>Hot, dry weather creates ideal conditions for bushfires, and temperatures have climbed in NSW over the past several decades. The summer of 2012/13 was the hottest on record nationally, with two intense and prolonged heatwaves in early January and March setting all time-high maximum temperatures in Sydney. </p>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) <a href="http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap25_FGDall.pdf">predicts</a> with virtual certainty that warming in Australia will continue throughout this century. This will have implications for the nature of bushfires in NSW, as fire severity and intensity is expected to increase in the areas that are home to a substantial proportion of the state’s population. </p>
<p>NSW Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons has <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/forecasts-point-to-dangerous-bushfire-season-20140930-10o6nl.html">said</a> that more than a million homes in the state may be at risk this bushfire season.</p>
<p>Residents remember well the exceptionally dry conditions that heralded last year’s deadly Blue Mountains fires. They were preceded by the warmest September on record for the state, the warmest 12 months on record for Australia, and below-average rainfall in forested areas, leading to very dry fuels. </p>
<h2>Looking to the future</h2>
<p>Such high fire danger weather has already increased in southeast Australia over the past 40 years, driven by the warming climate. With the ongoing increase in hot weather, coupled with the likelihood that NSW will experience prolonged dry spells, high fire danger weather is set to become even more frequent. </p>
<p>Bushfires damage properties, harm residents’ health, and claim lives. A report from <a href="http://www.ausfpa.com.au/wp-content/uploads/AFPA-DAE-report-Amended-Final-2014-05-27.pdf">Deloitte Access Economics</a> has projected that the total economic costs of NSW bushfires in 2014 will be A$43 million (in 2011 dollars). By the middle of the century these costs are set to almost triple.</p>
<p>These projections only take increased population and assets into account, not climate change, so must be considered very conservative.</p>
<p>Substantially greater resources will also be needed to fight fires in the future. By 2030, it has been <a href="http://www.ufuq.com.au/files/6613/6572/2205/NIEIR_Firefighters_and_Climate_Change_Final_and_Consolidated_report.pdf">estimated</a> that the number of professional firefighters in Australia will need to more than double, compared with 2010 numbers, if we are to keep up with the increase in fire danger weather, alongside population and asset growth.</p>
<h2>Be prepared</h2>
<p>It is vital that NSW residents prepare for the bushfire season by making a survival plan and using the resources available on the <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/plan-and-prepare/bush-fire-survival-plan">NSW Rural Fire Service website</a>.</p>
<p>This is the critical decade for action on climate change. We must act rapidly to cut our emissions to stabilise the climate, and to reduce the risk of bushfires destroying homes and claiming lives, both in NSW and across southeast Australia. </p>
<p><em>My thanks to the Climate Council staff for their assistance and especially to Alix Pearce for her assistance in preparing the report and co-authoring this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33245/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Hughes receives funding from the ARC for her work as an ecologist and expert on the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. She is the Co-Director of the Climate Futures Research Centre at Macquarie University and the Director of the Biodiversity Node of the NSW Adaptation Research Hub. She is also a member of Climate Scientists Australia and the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.</span></em></p>In New South Wales in 2013, bushfires in January and October collectively burned 768,000 hectares of bushland and destroyed 279 homes. Tragically, two people lost their lives and the damage was estimated…Lesley Hughes, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/316802014-09-16T20:27:20Z2014-09-16T20:27:20ZClimate Council: without action, rising seas will cost us billions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59088/original/g6yfyb68-1410834231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C249%2C2217%2C1418&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia's coast is famous around the world - but rising sea levels are poised to make things a lot less fun.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adam J.W.C./Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“I Do Like to Be Beside the Seaside” holds true for many Australians who <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL026981/abstract">live on or near the coast</a>. On top of the many lifestyle amenities coastal living offers, much of the country’s crucial infrastructure (such as road and rail networks, hospitals, water treatment works and waste disposal facilities) is located along our coastline. </p>
<p>Virtually all of this infrastructure has been designed and built for a stable climate, yet we are living in a new climate system that is no longer stable. </p>
<p>Rising sea levels pose huge financial, economic and humanitarian risks, as shown by the Climate Council’s latest report, <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/coastalflooding">Counting the Costs: Climate Change and Coastal Flooding</a>. If the world ignores the problem, by mid-century rising seas could cost the world more than a trillion dollars a year as floods and storm surges hit.</p>
<h2>How much will the seas rise?</h2>
<p>Climate change is warming the oceans and increasing the flow of ice from the land into the sea. This drives up sea levels, causing coastlines to recede and making flooding more widespread. The primary cause of the 17 cm global average sea-level rise observed during the second half of the 20th century is the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf">human activities</a>. And sea level is likely to increase by <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter13_FINAL.pdf">0.4 to 1.0 m through the 21st century</a>. </p>
<p>Strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would keep sea-level rise towards the lower end of that range, while a business-as-usual approach to burning fossil fuels would drive it towards the upper end of the range – with potentially massive economic consequences.</p>
<h2>Coastal flooding and economic damage</h2>
<p>Coastal flooding has caused, and is projected to cause, severe damage to economies without adaptation and drastic mitigation measures. Hurricane Katrina, which hit the southern United States in 2005, caused <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n6/full/nclimate1389.html">US$100 billion (A$110 billion) in damage and about 2,000 deaths</a>.</p>
<p>Seven years later, <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf">Hurricane Sandy</a> caused US$19 billion in damage to public and private infrastructure and property in New York City alone, as well as hitting other locations along the US east coast and in the Caribbean. </p>
<p>Forget about the Tom Cruise movie <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0086200">Risky Business</a> - the recent report of the same name, <a href="http://riskybusiness.org">Risky Business: the Economic Risks of Climate Change</a>, led by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is much more apt. It starkly sets out the economic risks of climate change to the United States, including the threat of damage to coastal property and infrastructure from rising sea levels and increased storm surges. </p>
<p>The report predicts that in just over a decade, this double whammy of higher sea levels and storm surges will more than double the costs of coastal storms along the US eastern seaboard and the Gulf of Mexico, to US$3.5 billion a year. Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy are harbingers of things to come. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59093/original/vs6qry4v-1410837948.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=582&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hurricane Katrina: costly, in many senses.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the threat of a climate-driven increase in sea level goes unabated, the projected increases in economic damage will be significant. According to a <a href="http://www.climatechange.gov.au/sites/climatechange/files/documents/03_2013/risks-coastal-buildings.pdf">2011 federal government assessment</a>, more than A$226 billion (in 2008 dollars) in commercial, industrial, road and rail, and residential assets around Australia’s coasts are potentially exposed to flooding and erosion hazards if seas were to rise by 1.1 m (high end scenario for 2100). </p>
<p>In southeast Queensland, without adaptation, a current 1-in-100-year coastal flooding event would probably cause about A$1.1 billion in damage to residential buildings. With a 0.2 m rise in sea level, a similar flooding event would increase the damages to around A$2 billion, and a 0.5 m rise in sea level <a href="http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-Flagship/CAF-working-papers/CAF-working-paper-6.aspx">would raise projected damages to A$3.9 billion</a>.</p>
<p>By 2050, if the threat of sea level rise is ignored, the worldwide losses from coastal flooding (and land subsidence) are projected to hit <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n9/full/nclimate1979.html">US$1 trillion per year</a> – roughly the size of the entire Australian economy.</p>
<h2>Putting the squeeze on natural ecosystems</h2>
<p>Many coastal and near-shore marine ecosystems, such as mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrass beds, may become trapped in a “coastal squeeze” as rising sea levels come up against fixed landward barriers such as seawalls and urban infrastructure. </p>
<p>Damaging these ecosystems has detrimental flow-on effects to water quality, carbon storage, and fisheries. Sea-level rise is increasing the salinity of coastal groundwater and pushing salty water further upstream in estuaries, affecting the health of salt-sensitive plants and animals. Saltwater intrusion from rising sea levels is contributing to the loss of freshwater habitats in coastal regions such as <a href="http://www.climatechange.gov.au/sites/climatechange/files/documents/03_2013/kakadu-coast.pdf">Kakadu National Park</a>. Meanwhile, some corals may not be able to keep up with periods of rapid sea-level rise, which would cause reefs to “<a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10113-010-0189-2">drown</a>”.</p>
<p>Australia’s beautiful sandy beaches – a major attraction for Australia’s multi-billion dollar tourism industry – are at risk from coastal erosion. And it’s not just the tourism dollar that is being eroded.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/59094/original/xsq92trc-1410838172.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feeling the squeeze: many mangroves could be left with nowhere to live.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AMangrove_-_Cooktown%2C_Queensland%2C_Australia.jpg">Rob and Stephanie Levy/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vulnerable communities</h2>
<p>Rising sea level is eroding the viability of coastal communities on Pacific Islands and in low-lying areas of Asia, increasing the likelihood that people will need to resettle elsewhere. Several Torres Strait Island communities live in extremely low-lying areas and already experience flooding during annual high tides. Building seawalls and raising houses can buy time, but in the long term several of these communities may face relocation. </p>
<p>A sea-level rise of 0.5-2.0 m could displace <a href="http://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/RoySoc%204D%20Sea%20Level.pdf">between 1.2 million and 2.2 million people</a> from the Caribbean region and the Indian and Pacific Ocean islands, assuming that no adaptation occurs.</p>
<p>The impacts of climate change and coastal flooding are potentially huge. Rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are crucial, both in Australia and around the world, if we are to stabilise the climate and slow the seas’ rise. </p>
<p>If we don’t manage it, then being beside the seaside might turn out not to be so enjoyable after all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31680/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Rice is the Research Manager of the Climate Council, an independent non-profit organisation funded by donations from the public. Its mission is to provide authoritative, expert advice to the Australian public on climate change.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Hunter received funding from the Australian Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Hughes receives funding from the ARC for her work as an ecologist and expert on the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. She is the Co-Director of the Climate Futures Research Centre at Macquarie University and the Director of the Biodiversity Node of the NSW Adaptation Research Hub. She is also a member of Climate Scientists Australia and the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Steffen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>“I Do Like to Be Beside the Seaside” holds true for many Australians who live on or near the coast. On top of the many lifestyle amenities coastal living offers, much of the country’s crucial infrastructure…Martin Rice, Research Manager, The Climate Council of Australia and Honorary Associate, Department of Environment and Geography, Macquarie UniversityJohn Hunter, University Associate, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, University of TasmaniaLesley Hughes, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie UniversityWill Steffen, Adjunct Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/280852014-06-18T10:15:43Z2014-06-18T10:15:43ZAustralia’s ancient electricity sector urgently needs a new plan<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51518/original/q9m59r7x-1403080328.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The sun is setting on a heavily coal-dependent power sector, a new Climate Council report argues.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/t_zero/7756451956/in/photolist-cPpQWh-72zN9R-Qpsx-2HTpg-57YCy-vZ7Hj-eXaDos-4buscc-76j3bg-eXaCzE-ddvgcd-fbPE6S-6AsGKC-4BDD6h-4FDty-azBLon-ddvbtZ-cTdd61-xD2A-frQYYB-xzBok-i3SVjy-M7zmn-4zE5KD-eTgP2i-74GGnU-fx6KLy-7sz9Dh-giZLY-51Gpw-a3QRaQ-8TQRPW-6EBmX-aLjafn-Q49od-59hKkw-fJm8yq-fs6iEd-8EsGkZ-cYCvnf-u7LsU-fJm1tu-cYCtb3-9RcvHZ-apKnSf-34VZTF-Q4E4r-Q49oQ-7HC3Pc-bGSzCa">Tao Zero/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It takes 10 years or more to plan, permit, finance and build major new power plants. That means the decisions we make today – or don’t make – will have lasting consequences for generations to come. </p>
<p>And in Australia right now, the lack of debate about needing to overhaul our ageing, high-emissions power infrastructure is going to come back to haunt us.</p>
<p>The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently concluded that effective climate action will <a href="http://report.mitigation2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers_approved.pdf">require a large-scale transformation of power generation globally</a>, including “a tripling to nearly a quadrupling of the share of zero- and low-carbon energy supply from renewables, nuclear energy and fossil energy with carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), or bioenergy with CCS by the year 2050”.</p>
<p>And only last month, <a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/iea-says-fossil-fuels-must-be-replaced-by-renewables-46853">the International Energy Agency showed</a> how that the world’s electricity mix would need to switch from 68% fossil fuels now to at least 65% renewables by 2050 to have a chance of limiting the rise in global temperatures to no more than 2 degrees this century.</p>
<p>Yet the <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/australia-s-electricity-sector-ageing-inefficient-and-unprepared">latest report</a> from the Climate Council shows that Australia’s electricity sector is ageing, inefficient and heavily coal-dependent. </p>
<p>With the US unveiling a new <a href="https://theconversation.com/obamas-plan-for-coal-power-delivers-on-health-and-climate-27516">Clean Power Plan</a> to start cutting their emissions from power plants, Australians should be asking: what are we doing here?</p>
<h2>Old coal</h2>
<p>Power drives our economy, from big industry to our households. Australia today relies on coal-fired power plants for most of its electricity.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/d616342d-775f-4115-bcfa-2816a1da77bf/files/nggi-quarterly-update-dec13.pdf">latest government figures</a> show the electricity sector accounts for 33% of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions — the single biggest contributor to emissions nationally. </p>
<p>Adding to the problem is the fact that our infrastructure is ageing and inefficient, which significantly increases the emissions “intensity” of Australia’s electricity. In fact Australia’s sector is significantly more intensive than China’s or the USA’s. </p>
<p>Within a decade, around 50% of Australia’s coal-powered generators will be over 40 years old, with some currently operating stations set to hit 60. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51232/original/qk2fcqz7-1402962139.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51232/original/qk2fcqz7-1402962139.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51232/original/qk2fcqz7-1402962139.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51232/original/qk2fcqz7-1402962139.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51232/original/qk2fcqz7-1402962139.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51232/original/qk2fcqz7-1402962139.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51232/original/qk2fcqz7-1402962139.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51232/original/qk2fcqz7-1402962139.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the moment Australia’s electricity sector is like an old car we are running into the ground, getting more and more expensive to maintain and inefficient. Yet there has been scant public discussion on the increasing age of Australia’s coal-fuelled power stations and how they could be replaced.</p>
<p>Continuing to burn coal for power in the traditional way is incompatible with addressing climate change. While <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-carbon-capture-and-storage-16052">carbon capture and storage</a> (CCS) will be essential for any new coal-power station, it is costly and difficult to combine with ageing power stations. </p>
<h2>The clean energy challenge</h2>
<p>The latest Climate Council report considers three main options to substantially cut Australia’s emissions from power generation:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Decommission old technology coal and gas fired plants and replace with low or zero emissions plants.</p></li>
<li><p>Capture and sequester CO<sub>2</sub> from coal and gas fired power plants, and associated fuel mining and production processes.</p></li>
<li><p>Switch generation fuels from high emitting fuels such as coal to lower-emitting fuels like gas, or zero-emission fuels (such as renewables). </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Globally, the uptake of renewable energy is progressing rapidly and is attracting billions in investment. And renewables (hydro, wind and solar PV) are expected to account for <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,38764,en.html">almost 30%</a> of global power generation by 2020.</p>
<p>Global solar photovoltaic capacity has been growing, on average, over 40% a year since 2000 and there is substantial potential for long-term growth.</p>
<p>And since 2000, the capacity of wind power globally has grown at an average rate of 24% per year. As more and more renewable energy is installed, costs are also dropping dramatically. The drop in cost is then accelerating the trend toward more renewable energy. </p>
<p>Hydro is currently the largest global renewable and in Australia this source of electricity accounts for 16.1% of the country’s grid connected power station capacity. </p>
<p>But there is little undeveloped hydro power potential remaining in Australia, and the amount of energy supplied varies as rainfall patterns change and as our weather fluctuates between El Niño drought cycles and La Niña wet cycles. Hydro also has social and environmental implications. </p>
<h2>Australia’s potential</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41878/original/gvw93vx3-1392768516.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41878/original/gvw93vx3-1392768516.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41878/original/gvw93vx3-1392768516.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41878/original/gvw93vx3-1392768516.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41878/original/gvw93vx3-1392768516.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41878/original/gvw93vx3-1392768516.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=802&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41878/original/gvw93vx3-1392768516.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=802&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41878/original/gvw93vx3-1392768516.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=802&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Going solar in the suburbs: solar PV uptake in Brisbane.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.acilallen.com.au/cms_files/ACILAllenSolarPhotovoltaic2013.pdf">ACIL Allen Consulting for the Australian Renewable Energy Agency</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australia has an abundance of solar and wind resources, but it has a very low share of global renewable energy generation. But there are some Australian exceptions where renewable leadership is world-class.</p>
<p><a href="http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/the-remarkable-energy-transition-in-south-australia-24648">South Australia is undergoing an extraordinary transformation</a> involving wind, solar and energy efficiency; Queensland is also strong in solar generation; and the <a href="http://www.environment.act.gov.au/energy/90_percent_renewable">ACT is on track</a> to make 90% of its power from wind and solar by 2020. </p>
<p>And <a href="https://theconversation.com/solar-revolution-led-by-outer-suburbs-16701">more than a million households</a> in Australia have spent over A$7 billion of their own money putting 3000 megawatts of solar power on their homes. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51233/original/xw7c3mcn-1402962148.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51233/original/xw7c3mcn-1402962148.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/51233/original/xw7c3mcn-1402962148.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51233/original/xw7c3mcn-1402962148.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51233/original/xw7c3mcn-1402962148.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51233/original/xw7c3mcn-1402962148.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51233/original/xw7c3mcn-1402962148.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/51233/original/xw7c3mcn-1402962148.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, for Australia to achieve substantial emission reductions, we need a national plan for the electricity generation sector, involving the transition to wind and solar combined with battery storage.</p>
<p>This is the conversation that still isn’t happening in this country. </p>
<p>We urgently need a long-term vision, strategy and implementation plan for Australia’s electricity generation sector for the decades ahead to meet the dual challenges of acting on climate change and overhauling an inefficient electricity system. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martin Rice is the Research Manager of the Climate Council, an independent non-profit organisation. The latest Climate Council report on ‘Australia’s electricity sector: Ageing, inefficient and unprepared’ written by Andrew Stock was published with donations from founding friends, supporters and donors.</span></em></p>It takes 10 years or more to plan, permit, finance and build major new power plants. That means the decisions we make today – or don’t make – will have lasting consequences for generations to come. And…Martin Rice, Honorary Associate, Department of Environment and Geography, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/274392014-06-02T03:11:08Z2014-06-02T03:11:08Z‘Abnormal autumn’ shows the climate system is in a foul mood<p>The climate system is in a foul mood. From “<a href="https://theconversation.com/angry-summer-shaped-by-a-shifting-climate-12580">angry summer</a>” to “<a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/abnormalautumn">abnormal autumn</a>” – we’re running out of words to describe the relentless extreme weather that Australia is experiencing as global temperatures continue to increase because of climate change. Now the exceptional heat has carried on into the autumn of 2014 in Australia.</p>
<p>The Climate Council’s latest report – “<a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/abnormalautumn">Seasonal Update: Abnormal Autumn 2014</a>” – delivers three key findings.</p>
<h2>Continuing warm trend</h2>
<p>First, the 24-month period ending with April 2014 was the hottest on record, and once the data for May are analysed, that new record will almost surely be immediately broken by the 24-month period ending with May 2014. </p>
<p>Second, the average temperature across Australia for April was 1.1ºC above the long-term average (1961-1990) and May continued this trend of abnormally high temperatures. </p>
<p>Third, the climate system as a whole is heating up and temperatures are projected to increase, with more extremely hot days and fewer cool days and the number of extreme fire-weather days is expected to increase in southern and eastern Australia. So, we’re not likely to get relief from warmer-than-normal conditions any time soon.</p>
<h2>Abnormal warm weather around Australia</h2>
<p>The abnormally warm weather that has seen records tumble during the last two summers has continued into the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs49.pdf">autumn of 2014.</a></p>
<p>A prolonged warm period from 8 to 26 May was experienced in South Australia, New South Wales, Victoria, and southern inland Queensland, with unusual warmth also extending periodically to Tasmania and parts of the Northern Territory and southeastern Western Australia. Across much of this region, maximum daily temperatures were 4-6ºC higher than normal (the 1961-1990 average) and minimum (night time) temperatures were also well above normal despite the clear skies, which usually lead to lower night time temperatures.</p>
<p>Major population centres experienced abnormal autumn warmth. Sydney, Adelaide and Melbourne set records for the most consecutive days in May of 20ºC or above with 28 days, 16 days and 13 days respectively. Sydney experienced 19 consecutive days of 22ºC or above from 10 to 28 May, surpassing the previous May record of 9 days (set from 1 to 9 May 1978 and 1 to 9 May 2007).</p>
<p>Many locations in every state except WA set records for high temperatures so late in the autumn season. For example, Canberra recorded a maximum of 21.7ºC on 26 May; previously the latest date a temperature that high occurred in Canberra was 12 May, nearly two weeks earlier. Also on 26 May Birdsville reached a high temperature of 34.7ºC, the highest temperature reached so late in the season at any Australian site outside of the tropics.</p>
<p>The Australian area-averaged daily maximum was 27.35ºC or above on each of the five days from 21 to 25 May, higher than any value previously recorded on or after 21 May.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49942/original/td9tz63v-1401675181.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49942/original/td9tz63v-1401675181.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49942/original/td9tz63v-1401675181.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49942/original/td9tz63v-1401675181.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49942/original/td9tz63v-1401675181.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=596&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49942/original/td9tz63v-1401675181.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49942/original/td9tz63v-1401675181.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49942/original/td9tz63v-1401675181.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Warmer winter and El Niño on the cards</h2>
<p>The unseasonably warm conditions that many regions of Australia experienced in April and May are likely to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/temps_ahead.shtml">continue through winter</a>. Higher-than-average maximum and minimum temperatures are likely over most of the country with the chances of warmer-than-average conditions being particularly high for the southern half of the continent. </p>
<p>The odds are increasing that Australia could soon experience an <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/tracker/">El Niño event</a>, which would likely exacerbate the impacts of climate change by driving <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-we-heading-for-a-worrying-super-el-ni-o-26090">temperatures even higher</a> and triggering drier conditions in the east and south of the continent.</p>
<h2>Time to act</h2>
<p>With the continuing plague of abnormally high temperatures across the continent, the influence of climate change can be felt now. While short-term weather patterns act as immediate triggers for extreme weather – such as the slow-moving high pressure system in the Tasman Sea that drove the warm conditions in May – all of these shorter-term weather patterns are being influenced by the build-up of heat in the climate system from the increasing amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The warming climate increases the likelihood of unusually warm and hot conditions, regardless of their immediate triggers. </p>
<p>This influence of climate change is evident in the long-term increase in the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events in Australia and around the world, with serious and costly impacts on our communities, infrastructure, economy, and the environment. The frequency of record heat events has doubled from the middle of the 20th century to the present, and over the past decade, record high temperature events are occurring three times more frequently than record cold temperatures. Over the period since the 1970s, high bushfire danger weather has been on the increase in southeast Australia.</p>
<p>We are halfway through the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-critical-decade-expert-views-on-the-climate-commissions-first-report-1412">critical decade</a> for action on climate change, yet Australian emissions have still to make a decisive turn downwards. It is time to take action on climate change or else the climate system’s mood will only get worse, escalating risks for our health and well-being, for many sectors of the economy and for the natural ecosystems that we depend upon.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27439/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Will Steffen is a Councillor for the Climate Council. The Climate Council is an independent, non-profit organisation funded by donations from the public. Its mission is to provide authoritative, expert advice to the Australian public on climate change. Councillors receive remuneration for time spent on Council activities. This ensures the Climate Council can continue to draw on the knowledge and experience of world-class experts to provide Australians with the best possible information on climate change.
</span></em></p>The climate system is in a foul mood. From “angry summer” to “abnormal autumn” – we’re running out of words to describe the relentless extreme weather that Australia is experiencing as global temperatures…Will Steffen, Adjunct Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/240742014-03-13T04:37:58Z2014-03-13T04:37:58ZFacts won’t beat the climate deniers – using their tactics will<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/43811/original/ntxhtr5z-1394683289.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C23%2C5282%2C3611&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Facts not enough: the climate message is still not getting through.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A colleague of mine recently received an invitation to a Climate Council event. The invitation featured <a href="https://www.facebook.com/climatecouncil/posts/10151956752276603?stream_ref=10">this Tim Flannery quote</a>: “An opinion is useless, what we need are more facts.”</p>
<p>My first thought was that my colleague was taking the piss. Tim Flannery is an experienced science communicator, but that phrase made my jaw drop. It was apparently meant in earnest, but it’s wildly off the mark.</p>
<p>The quote is ludicrously, appallingly, almost dangerously naïve. It epitomises the reasons we are still “debating” climate science and being overwhelmed by climate skeptics/deniers/contrarians in the public space.</p>
<p>My intense frustration about the current state of the climate issue is shared by Climate Change Authority chairman Bernie Fraser, who says the public has been <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/mar/12/climate-change-body-chief-bad-guys-won-when-the-good-guys-lay-down">left confused and fed up because deliberate misinformation has been allowed to spread unchecked</a>.</p>
<p>But the “more facts” solution is no solution at all. We have enough facts now and none of them are good. Yet here we are, in Fraser’s words, watching the “bad guys” win. </p>
<h2>Communication without opinion?</h2>
<p>Opinions are a cornerstone of human communication. They may be based on obvious, acceptable, objective evidence, or they may not. There will be opinions with which you agree, disagree, or don’t care. Regardless, they are intrinsic to the way humans interact – at work, chatting over dinner, everywhere.</p>
<p>By asserting that opinions are useless in climate change communications, Flannery might as well be saying we should stop using language at all. </p>
<p>It’s as disappointingly innocent as the cries I’ve heard regularly from scientists who want us to “leave the politics out of climate change”. </p>
<p>Like opinion, politics is not an “add-on”. It’s the way we decide things as a society. It’s unavoidable when more two or more people have competing plans for the same resource. </p>
<p>That’s why decrying the usefulness of opinions is simply irrelevant. Opinions just are. They exist. We use them all the time, and perhaps nowhere more vehemently than when bashing out positions in the world of politics, advocacy or activism. </p>
<p>To top it off, Flannery’s assertion about the uselessness of opinions is itself an opinion, so by his own logic, useless.</p>
<h2>To facts</h2>
<p>If there’s one thing decades of advertising, public relations, psychology research and science communication have taught us, it’s that throwing facts at opposing opinions with the hope of changing people’s minds is like playing golf with a pineapple: it’s not just useless, it’s actively counterproductive. </p>
<p>At best, presenting people with facts to counter their beliefs makes them ignore you; at worst, it drives them further away. How much more evidence do you need than the singular failure of scientific facts to convince deniers that humans are buggering up the climate?</p>
<p>It’s a bit like this classic caricature of old-school British colonialism:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Lord Ponsonby: “How do you speak to the natives?</p>
<p>Lord Snot: "In English, of course”</p>
<p>Lord Ponsonby: “What if they don’t understand?”</p>
<p>Lord Snot: “I speak louder”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Time for action</h2>
<p>The fact is that the time for fact-based arguments is over. </p>
<p>We all know what the overwhelmingly vast majority of climate science is telling us. I’m not going to regurgitate the details here, in part because the facts are available everywhere, but more importantly, because this tactic is a core reason why climate messages often don’t resonate or penetrate.</p>
<p>If, like me, you’re convinced that human activity is having a hugely damaging effect on the global climate, then your only responsible option is to prioritise action. </p>
<p>Why, then, do so many who represent the experts, the science, and the evidence seem to prioritise their perceived moral standing as a scientist above all else? </p>
<p>What’s worse: being convinced bad things are happening and resorting to “unscientific” means that inspire real action, or watching things go to hell while taking comfort in the knowledge you were a worthy, well-behaved scientist who didn’t stoop to getting political?</p>
<p>Ultimately, we can only say “that’s not cricket” for so long. Eventually we have to stop tutting and accept that others aren’t even trying to play cricket – they’re boxing. We can decry climate deniers for their unfair, lowbrow tactics, but their tactics are getting them exactly what they want. Ours are not.</p>
<p>The continuing focus on gathering and presenting more and more scientific data to reinforce a position the vast majority already holds is not leading to the changes we need. Yes, scientists should keep monitoring, researching and reporting on the climate. But assuming that we want people to act according to the science, the focus must now be on influencing positive action. </p>
<h2>So, what now?</h2>
<p>There’s no profit in trying to change the position of deniers. Their values and motivations are fundamentally different to those of us who listen to what the weight of scientific evidence tell us. So forget them.</p>
<p>Forget the Moncktonites, disregard the Boltists, and snub the Abbottsians. Ignore them, step around them, or walk over them. Drown them not just with sensible conversations, but with useful actions. Flood the airwaves and apply tactics advertisers have successfully used for years.</p>
<p>What we need now is to become comfortable with the idea that the ends will justify the means. We actually need <em>more opinions</em>, appearing <em>more often</em> and expressed <em>more noisily</em> than ever before.</p>
<p>The biggest impediment to climate action these days is not because of the human frailties that science is hell-bent on resisting – those alleged failings of opinion, belief and emotion. Ironically, it’s exactly because we are still trying to suppress them that we are now stalled.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24074/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Lamberts has received funding from the ARC linkage program</span></em></p>A colleague of mine recently received an invitation to a Climate Council event. The invitation featured this Tim Flannery quote: “An opinion is useless, what we need are more facts.” My first thought was…Rod Lamberts, Deputy Director, Australian National Centre for Public Awareness of Science, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/232532014-02-17T19:45:29Z2014-02-17T19:45:29ZClimate Council: heatwaves are getting hotter and more frequent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41677/original/fv6hrxxt-1392610684.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C14%2C3235%2C1892&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bathers on Melbourne's St Kilda beach on 28 January this year, as temperatures hit 39°C.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Heatwaves are one of the most important climate-related risks for Australians. Sometimes called the “silent killers”, they cause the <a href="http://www.pwc.com.au/industry/government/assets/extreme-heat-events-nov11.pdf">greatest number of deaths</a> of any natural disaster type in Australia, and have significant impacts on infrastructure, agriculture and biodiversity. As the climate continues to warm, heatwaves are becoming hotter, longer and more frequent.</p>
<p>The extreme heat in Melbourne that <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/extreme-heat-proves-too-much-for-canadian-player-frank-dancevic-20140114-30t3y.html">frazzled the Australian Open tennis tournament</a> and the record-breaking heat in large areas of Queensland this summer remind us of the risks that heatwaves pose. Hot on the heels of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/angry-summer-shaped-by-a-shifting-climate-12580">“angry summer”</a> of 2012/2013, this summer’s heat is part of a longer-term trend towards hotter weather.</p>
<h2>Heatwaves on the rise</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/">Climate Council’s</a> latest report – <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/2014/02/13/heatwaves-report/">“Heatwaves: Hotter, Longer, More Often”</a>, which we co-authored – delivers four key findings.</p>
<p>First, climate change is already increasing the likelihood and severity of heatwaves across Australia. Second, heatwaves have widespread impacts including increased deaths, reduced workplace productivity, damage to infrastructure such as transport and electricity systems, mortality of heat-sensitive plants and animals, and stress on agricultural systems. Third, record hot days and heatwaves are expected to increase further in the future. And finally, limiting future increase in heatwave activity requires urgent and deep cuts to greenhouse-gas emissions.</p>
<p>Since 1950, the annual number of record hot days across Australia has more than doubled, and both maximum and minimum temperatures have <a href="http://www.csiro.au/%20Outcomes/Climate/Understanding/%7E/link.aspx?_id=CBCD40CB66A0482CB949F0F92B60B2A9&_z=z%20and">increased by around 0.9°C</a>. Over the past decade, the frequency of record hot days has been more than three times the frequency of record cold days. The hottest area-averaged national maximum temperature ever recorded was 40.3°C on 7 January 2013, and extreme temperature records were broken <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs43e.pdf">in every state and territory</a> throughout the course of the 2012/2013 summer.</p>
<p>Almost all of Australia has experienced a lengthening of the heatwave season, with the first heatwave event occurring <a href="http://web.b.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=08948755&AN=88906971&h=0osVQQFjG%2fK93X8H6zb8lBXzoTrw9m5kROPeXfE7%2b0Me7JjalInSTipd306orr1TyiAPFcBa7aQ5N3lMmq%2fjPg%3d%3d&crl=c">much earlier than it did 60 years ago</a>. The intensity of heatwaves, as measured by the temperature of the hottest day (the peak of the heatwave), <a href="http://web.b.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=08948755&AN=88906971&h=0osVQQFjG%2fK93X8H6zb8lBXzoTrw9m5kROPeXfE7%2b0Me7JjalInSTipd306orr1TyiAPFcBa7aQ5N3lMmq%2fjPg%3d%3d&crl=c">is also increasing</a>.</p>
<p>This summer, Australians again endured record-breaking, extreme heatwaves and hot weather. On 3 January, Queensland experienced its <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/month/qld/summary.shtml">hottest area-averaged day on record</a> and for the week ending 4 January, average maximum temperatures were a staggering 8°C or more above normal in the southern inland part of the state.</p>
<p>Record high maximum temperatures occurred over <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs47.pdf">8.8% of Australia</a> during the first four days of January, including 17% of New South Wales, 17% of the Northern Territory, 16% of Queensland and 8% of South Australia. On 2 February, Adelaide reached a new February record of 44.7°C, some 15°C above average.</p>
<h2>The global picture</h2>
<p>Heatwaves are also on the increase worldwide, with severe heatwaves affecting many countries and regions in the last 10-15 years. One of the most severe was the <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/wea.74.04/abstract">European heatwave</a> of July and August 2003, with France and Switzerland particularly affected. This heatwave was followed in 2010 by an even more <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6026/220">intense and widespread heatwave</a>, which scorched large swathes of Eastern Europe, including western Russia, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6026/220">Long-term temperature reconstructions</a> show that these were the hottest summers that Europe has experienced for at least 500 years. North America has also experienced several recent heatwaves, with a major heatwave affecting the state of Texas in July 2011 and a heatwave covering a greater area of the country in 2012.</p>
<h2>Diverse impacts</h2>
<p>The impacts of heatwaves are surprisingly large and diverse. The Bureau of Meteorology has <a href="http://www.pwc.com.au/industry/government/assets/extreme-heat-events-nov11.pdf">dubbed heatwaves</a> “the most under-rated weather hazard in Australia”. While heatwaves do not result in obvious violent effects on the landscape, unlike many other weather-related disasters such as high-intensity storms and bushfires, their impacts on health, the workplace, infrastructure, agriculture, and the environment are serious, costly and long-lasting. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41684/original/4vx7ftnq-1392619576.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/41684/original/4vx7ftnq-1392619576.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41684/original/4vx7ftnq-1392619576.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41684/original/4vx7ftnq-1392619576.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=751&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41684/original/4vx7ftnq-1392619576.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41684/original/4vx7ftnq-1392619576.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/41684/original/4vx7ftnq-1392619576.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Climate Council’s heatwaves report.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Climate Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires killed more than 170 people, the preceding heatwave killed double this figure. The economic burden of heatwaves is significant, through the demand placed on emergency services, infrastructure stress and breakdown, and agricultural losses. For example, as temperatures soared during the 2009 heatwave, the Basslink electricity cable between Tasmania and Victoria reached maximum operating temperature, causing the system to shut down and resulting in widespread blackouts in Melbourne. </p>
<p>Plants and animals are also susceptible to extreme heat events, with flying foxes, birds and rainforest marsupials being particularly vulnerable. Marine heatwaves can trigger coral bleaching events, affecting large areas of reefs. Bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef have occurred repeatedly since the late 1970s, with none reported before then. These bleaching events have contributed to the observed 50% loss of coral cover in the Great Barrier Reef over the past 30 years.</p>
<h2>The case for decarbonisation</h2>
<p>As greenhouse gases continue to rise in the atmosphere, heatwaves will continue to worsen. </p>
<p>According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 2012 <a href="http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-SPMbrochure_FINAL.pdf">Special Report on Extremes</a> and last year’s release of the first part of the <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm#.UwKB0vmSxb0">IPCC Fifth Assessment Report</a>, it is virtually certain that hot extremes will increase and cold extremes will decrease through the century compared to the current climate. It is also very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of heat waves will increase over most land areas around the globe.</p>
<p>This is the critical decade for action. Global emissions are still rising and Australian emissions are yet to make a decisive turn downwards. Despite the promising developments in low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency measures, there is not yet widespread acceptance in Australia of the urgent need to decarbonise our economy and implement policies to facilitate a decarbonised future. This challenge must be met if we are to minimise the risk of worsening heatwaves and other extreme events for ourselves, our children and grandchildren. It’s time to get on with the job. </p>
<p><em>The Climate Council is a crowdfunded body that advises the Australian public on climate change. You can read its Heatwave Report <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/2014/02/13/heatwaves-report/">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/23253/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>I don't have any potential conflicts of interest. The Climate Council is an independent, non-profit organisation funded by donations from the public. Its mission is to provide authoritative, expert advice to the Australian public on climate change.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Hughes receives funding from the ARC for her work as an ecologist and expert on the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. She is a member of the Land Sector Carbon and Biodiversity Board, the co-convenor of the Terrestrial Biodiversity Adaptation Research Network, chair of the Tasmanian Climate Action Council and a member of Climate Scientists Australia and the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Perkins receives funding from the Australian research council. She is affiliated with the climate change research centre at the university of New South Wales.</span></em></p>Heatwaves are one of the most important climate-related risks for Australians. Sometimes called the “silent killers”, they cause the greatest number of deaths of any natural disaster type in Australia…Will Steffen, Adjunct Professor, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityLesley Hughes, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie UniversitySarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Research Fellow, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/212572013-12-08T19:23:29Z2013-12-08T19:23:29ZClimate Council’s Code Red bushfire warning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37171/original/9v7yvgnc-1386474056.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Firefighters battle a bushfire close to homes in the Blue Mountains, west of Sydney, in October this year.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australians have always had to live with bushfires - but climate change is driving that fire danger even higher.</p>
<p>And we’re not talking about a distant threat to future generations. According to real observations from around the country - summarised in <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/bushfirereport/">a new report</a> from the Climate Council - we can see that in Australia today, hot days are getting hotter, and heatwaves longer and more frequent. </p>
<p>Some parts of Australia are already becoming drier. Hot, dry conditions are driving up the likelihood of very high fire danger weather, especially in the southwest and southeast. In southeast Australia, the fire season is already becoming longer, reducing the opportunities for hazard reduction burning.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/bushfirereport/">Be prepared: Climate change and the Australian bushfire threat</a> is the Climate Council’s is our first major report since <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-24/tim-flannery-to-relaunch-climate-commission/4976608">re-launching as a community-funded non-profit group</a> just over three months ago, and it provides a comprehensive, up-to-date summary of the influence of climate change on bushfires.</p>
<p>We have drawn heavily from the peer-reviewed scientific literature, as well as on submissions to several recent inquiries and Royal Commissions into bushfires and their impacts.</p>
<h2>Setting new records</h2>
<p>This has been a <a href="http://www.climatecouncil.org.au/2013/11/14/october-heat-report/">record-breaking year for Australia</a>. </p>
<p>We have just experienced our hottest 12 months on record. New South Wales has experienced the hottest September on record, days well above average in October and exceptionally dry conditions. These record hot, dry conditions have influenced recent fires in NSW. </p>
<p>The 2009 Black Saturday fires in Victoria were also preceded by a decade-long drought with a string of record hot years, coupled with a severe heatwave in the preceding week. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37172/original/f474yjrv-1386474191.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Fire Danger Rating used by the Bureau of Meteorology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.bom.gov.au</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/">Forest Fire Danger Index</a>, an indicator of fire risk, reached record levels on Black Saturday. </p>
<p>National fire danger ratings have since been <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/new-code-red-warning-for-dangerous-fire-days-20090910-fjdr.html">revised</a> to include a new extreme category: <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/file_system/attachments/Attachment_FireDangerRating.pdf">“Catastrophic”</a> or <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/warnings-restrictions/about-fire-danger-ratings/">“Code Red”</a>. </p>
<h2>Planning ahead</h2>
<p>Australia is very likely to see an increased number of days with extreme fire danger in future.</p>
<p>Fire frequency and intensity is expected to increase substantially in coming decades in many regions, especially in those regions currently most affected by bushfires, and where a substantial proportion of the Australian population lives.</p>
<p>It is crucial that communities, emergency services, health services and other authorities are adequately supported and resourced to prepare for the increasing severity and frequency of extreme fire conditions.</p>
<h2>The critical decade</h2>
<p>Scientists have been studying human effects on the atmosphere <a href="http://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf">since the 19th century</a>. Our understanding of climate science is now better than ever. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://theconversation.com/updating-the-state-of-australias-climate-15233">June this year,</a> the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_Commission">Climate Commission</a> (as we were then) released the report, <a href="http://apo.org.au/research/critical-decade-2013-climate-change-science-risks-and-responses">The Critical Decade 2013: Climate change science, risks and responses</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/37173/original/b6g4w26j-1386474318.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Climate Commission’s answers to common questions about bushfires.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Climate Council’s new report on bushfires and climate change adds to this and the plethora of other research urging us to take action.</p>
<p>The impacts of climate change, such as increased bushfire risk, are already being observed. Whichever metaphor one chooses to represent the risks that climate change represents - rolling a dice, Russian roulette, driving towards the edge of a cliff in fog - it is clear that we have the information we need to act now.</p>
<p>Australia must strive to cut emissions rapidly and deeply to join global efforts to stabilize the world’s climate and to reduce the risk of even more extreme events, including bushfires.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/21257/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lesley Hughes receives funding from the ARC for her work as an ecologist and expert on the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems.
She is a member of the Land Sector Carbon and Biodiversity Board, the co-convenor of the Terrestrial Biodiversity Adaptation Research Network, chair of the Tasmanian Climate Action Council and a member of Climate Scientists Australia and the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.
She donates her time as a councillor with the Climate Council, an independent non-profit organisation. This new fire report was published with donations from founding friends, supporters and donors.
</span></em></p>Australians have always had to live with bushfires - but climate change is driving that fire danger even higher. And we’re not talking about a distant threat to future generations. According to real observations…Lesley Hughes, Head of the Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.