tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/cold-war-4087/articlesCold War – The Conversation2024-03-06T13:35:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2231482024-03-06T13:35:23Z2024-03-06T13:35:23ZOppenheimer feared nuclear annihilation – and only a chance pause by a Soviet submariner kept it from happening in 1962<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578712/original/file-20240228-16-283s2r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5496%2C3899&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Onlookers at a Key West, Fla., beach where the Army's Hawk anti-aircraft missiles were positioned during the Cuban missile crisis. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/onlookers-gather-on-george-smathers-beach-in-key-west-news-photo/148266845?adppopup=true">Underwood Archives/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>History has often been shaped by chance and luck. </p>
<p>One of the blockbuster films of the <a href="https://www.oppenheimermovie.com/">past year, “Oppenheimer</a>,” tells the dramatic story of the development of the atomic bomb and the physicist who headed those efforts, J. Robert Oppenheimer. But despite the Manhattan Project’s success depicted in the film, in his latter years, Oppenheimer became increasingly worried about a nuclear holocaust resulting from the proliferation of these weapons.</p>
<p>Over the past 80 years, the threat of such nuclear annihilation was perhaps never greater than during the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/cuban-missile-crisis">Cuban missile crisis of 1962</a>. </p>
<p>President John F. Kennedy’s secretary of state, Dean Acheson, said that nuclear war was averted during that crisis by “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/jah/article/100/2/598/695452">just plain dumb luck</a>.” As I detail in my forthcoming book, “<a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520390966/the-random-factor">The Random Factor</a>,” nowhere was the influence of chance and luck more evident than on Oct. 27, 1962.</p>
<h2>Russian missiles next door</h2>
<p>To set the stage, a cold war of hostilities between the U.S. and the communist Soviet Union began almost immediately following World War II, resulting in <a href="https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-russia-nuclear-arms-control">a nuclear arms race</a> between the two during the 1950s and continuing through the 1980s. </p>
<p>As a part of <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/the-cold-war">the Cold War</a>, the U.S. was extremely concerned about countries falling under the Soviet communist influence and umbrella. That fear was magnified in the case of Cuba.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial photo of a missile base in Cuba." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=544&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=684&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=684&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578653/original/file-20240228-22-e9caga.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=684&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aerial spy photos from October 1962 of a medium-range ballistic missile base, with labels detailing various parts of the base during the Cuban missile crisis, San Cristobal, Cuba.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-spy-photos-of-a-medium-range-ballistic-missile-base-news-photo/3208373?adppopup=true">Hulton Archive/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Tensions between the U.S. and Cuba had dramatically escalated following the failed 1961 U.S. attempt to overthrow revolutionary leader Fidel Castro and his communist ruling party. Known as the <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/the-bay-of-pigs">Bay of Pigs invasion</a>, its failure proved to be a major embarrassment for the Kennedy administration and a warning to the Castro regime. </p>
<p>In May 1962, Castro and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/cuban-missile-crisis">secretly deploy strategic nuclear missiles</a> in Cuba, with the intention of providing a strong deterrent to any potential U.S. invasion in the future. The Russian missiles and equipment would be disassembled and shipped aboard freighters bound for Havana, then be reassembled on-site.</p>
<p>On Oct. 14, a <a href="https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/cuban-missile-crisis">high-flying U.S. U-2 spy plane</a> photographed the construction of a missile launch site in western Cuba. This marked the beginning of the 13 days in October known as the Cuban missile crisis. </p>
<p>After heated deliberations with his cabinet and advisers, Kennedy decided on a <a href="https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-and-operations/cuban-missile.html">naval blockade</a> surrounding Cuba to prevent further Soviet ships from passing through. In addition, Kennedy demanded removal of all missiles and equipment already in Cuba.</p>
<p>This began a standoff between the U.S. and Russia. Ultimately, the missiles were disassembled and removed from Cuba. In exchange, the U.S. removed its Jupiter ballistic missiles from bases in Turkey and Italy. </p>
<p>But one utterly random – and utterly crucial – aspect of this resolution was not known until years later through the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390500088304">memoirs of, and interviews with, Soviet sailors</a>. </p>
<h2>‘Use the nuclear weapons first’</h2>
<p>During the crisis, the Soviet Union had sent four of its <a href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/foxtrot-class-old-russian-submarine-notorious-past-208458">Foxtrot-class submarines</a> to the crisis area. Each submarine carried 22 two-ton torpedoes.</p>
<p>Unbeknownst to the U.S., one of those 22 torpedoes aboard each of the four subs was nuclear-tipped with a warhead yielding 15 kilotons, or a force equivalent to the Hiroshima bomb. </p>
<p>In a briefing before the four submarine commanders set out for Cuba, <a href="https://cimsec.org/cuban-missile-crisis-soviet-submarines-attack/">Vice Admiral A.I. Rassokha</a> of the Soviet Northern Fleet gave instructions that if attacked by the American fleet, “I suggest to you commanders that you use the nuclear weapons first, and then you will figure out what to do after that.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map newspaper map from the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis shows the distances from Cuba of various cities on the North American Continent." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578691/original/file-20240228-18-tdn122.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This newspaper map from the time of the Cuban missile crisis shows the distances from Cuba of various cities on the North American continent.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-newspaper-map-from-the-time-of-the-cuban-missile-news-photo/515016314?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>His advice came alarmingly close to being carried out. </p>
<p>In approaching the blockade area on Oct. 27, Captain Valentin Savitsky’s submarine B-59 had been under prolonged harassment from an array of U.S. ships, aircraft and helicopters attempting to force it to the surface. Needing to recharge the boat’s electrical system, the B-59 did eventually resurface, at which point Savitsky thought he had emerged into a full-scale conflict – surrounded by naval ships and planes, shots being fired across his bow, depth charges dropped and powerful blinding searchlights aimed at the conning tower. Thinking he was under attack, Savitsky gave the order to immediately dive and prepare the nuclear torpedo for firing. </p>
<p>And here was where pure luck intervened. </p>
<h2>Stuck on a ladder</h2>
<p>Staff Captain Vasili Arkhipov and an unnamed sailor aboard B-59 likely <a href="https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2022-10-03/soviet-submarines-nuclear-torpedoes-cuban-missile-crisis">prevented World War III from occurring</a>.</p>
<p>As Savitsky tried to descend from the conning tower into the hull of the sub and begin the dive, he was momentarily blocked by a signaling officer who had accidentally gotten stuck on the conning tower ladder. During this split second delay, <a href="https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8342&context=nwc-review">Arkhipov, who was on the conning tower as well</a>, realized that the chaos on the water’s surface was not an attack but rather an attempt to provide a warning. </p>
<p>Arkhipov, who had equal authority as Savitsky, immediately ordered the submarine to “cancel dive, they are signaling.”</p>
<p>World War III was very likely averted as a result of a brief delay in time caused by a sailor who happened to be stuck in the right place at the right time, along with a second-in-command who, when given a few extra seconds, perceptively realized that the boat was not under attack.</p>
<p>Had this not happened, Savitsky would have dived and in all likelihood within five minutes fired his nuclear-tipped torpedo, causing a cataclysmic reaction on the high seas and the world as a whole. </p>
<p>According to Martin Sherwin, co-author of the <a href="https://www.pulitzer.org/winners/kai-bird-and-martin-j-sherwin">Pulitzer Prize-winning biography of Oppenheimer</a> that the recent movie was based on, “The extraordinary (and surely disconcerting) conclusion has to be that on October 27, 1962, a nuclear war was averted not because President Kennedy and Premier Khrushchev were doing their best to avoid war (they were), but because Capt. Vasily Arkhipov had been <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/165952/gambling-with-armageddon-by-martin-j-sherwin/">randomly assigned to submarine B-59</a>.”</p>
<p>This is but one of countless examples where global and military history has been dramatically altered by chance and luck. On Oct. 27, 1962, the world was extremely lucky. The question that Robert Oppenheimer would surely ask is, will we be so lucky the next time?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223148/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Robert Rank does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>During the Cuban missile crisis, World War III was likely averted by what one US official called ‘just plain dumb luck.’Mark Robert Rank, Professor of Social Welfare, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. LouisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2239652024-02-21T19:31:08Z2024-02-21T19:31:08ZWestern leaders threaten to undermine Navalny’s legacy in Russia<p>The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68315943">recent death of Alexei Navalny</a> brought immediate condemnations from world leaders, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/16/alexei-navalny-dead-russia-prsion/">with the American president immediately pointing the finger of blame at Vladimir Putin</a>.</p>
<p>One cannot <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68318742">say with certainty</a> the Russian president had Navalny killed. But the dissident’s death ahead of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-run-again-president-2024-2023-12-08/">Russia’s presidential elections</a> in March fits a pattern. Putin’s detractors have a habit of dying at moments <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/russian-responsible-building-kremlins-naval-fleet-dies-suddenly-1769524">when he is being scrutinized</a>. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, statements like Joe Biden’s, who held Putin <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/feb/16/ukraine-war-live-russia-avdiivka-assault-continues-as-zelenskiy-set-to-visit-europe">personally responsible</a> for Navalny’s death, play to Kremlin propaganda. </p>
<h2>‘Western stooge’</h2>
<p>Putin has been able to divide those who support Navalny with a combination of pandering to them and condemning the dissident as a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/obituary-alexei-navalny-russian-opposition-politician-putin-nemesis-reported-2024-02-16/">western stooge</a>. </p>
<p>The passion and breadth of western outrage is grist for this mill. The ability of Navalny’s widow, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wx3vHdFRvMo">Yulia Navalnaya</a>, and other reformers to bring about future change in Russia could be undermined if their cause becomes associated with the West.</p>
<p>Navalny’s appeal in Russia went beyond the democratic and <a href="https://acf.international/ru">anti-corruption stances</a> that earned him <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/24/movies/navalny-review.html">innumerable western admirers</a>. To Russians, Navalny was first and foremost <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/alexei-navalny-russian-opposition-leader-122409296.html">a nationalist</a>.</p>
<p>He was a threat to Putin because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2013.872453">he motivated nationalists</a>, a segment of Russian politics once critical of the strongman. </p>
<p>Putin is, assuredly, an authoritarian leader and commands <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/russia-putin-press-freedom-independent-news/">considerable extra-judicial</a> powers. But he’s always needed the support of Russian citizens. For more than a decade, <a href="https://imrussia.org/en/analysis/3265-putin%E2%80%99s-dangerous-flirting-with-nationalism">Russian nationalists</a> have been key to his longevity.</p>
<p>The political turmoil of the 1990s and early 2000s left many Russians questioning their place in the world. Russia went from the centre of one of the world’s superpowers to what some Russians perceived as being <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/03/putin-ukraine-russia-nato-kosovo/">ignored or belittled</a> by the United States.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/3-nato-gambles-that-have-played-a-big-role-in-the-horrors-of-war-in-ukraine-178815">3 NATO gambles that have played a big role in the horrors of war in Ukraine</a>
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<h2>Yeltsin’s successor</h2>
<p>Putin, as the successor to Russia’s first president — Boris Yeltsin — <a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/yeltsin-immunity-suggests-a-deal-done-with-putin-1.230365">is heir to a political position</a> staked out between Communists, who advocated a return to something like the Soviet Union, and nationalists, who sought to restore Russia to its status as a great power. </p>
<p>This balancing act was obvious early in Putin’s first term in office. Russian nationalists cried foul because western powers fought wars to preserve human rights in some countries while Russians in post-Soviet states were slighted. </p>
<p>But Putin, not beholden to nationalists at this point in time, actually <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule">entertained joining NATO</a>, that bastion of the West.</p>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/stone-interviews-putin-says-asked-russia-joining-nato">did not take</a> Putin’s suggestion seriously. As a result, along with <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-us-clash-over-russian-election-protests/a-15589210">Putin’s perception</a> that the U.S. supported his political foes, the Russian president looked to cultivate another source of stability. He turned to the Russian nationalists.</p>
<p>For certain Russian nationalists, <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88451">anti-westernism is a key facet</a> of their ideology. Putin now fully embraces these nationalists. His fear of them challenging his domestic position, in fact, helped fuel his <a href="https://doi.org/10.5612/slavicreview.75.3.0702">increased involvement</a> in Ukraine over the past decade.</p>
<p>Putin was unable to extricate himself from the Donbas region of Ukraine — with its Russian-speaking majority — without the risk of losing the support of Russian nationalists. This is one of the factors that caused him to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/13/europe/ukraine-advance-russia-war-analysis-intl-hnk-ml/index.html">invade Ukraine</a> in February 2022.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-putin-used-propaganda-to-deftly-turn-russians-against-ukrainians-81376">How Putin used propaganda to deftly turn Russians against Ukrainians</a>
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<h2>Navalny’s appeal</h2>
<p>While initially <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-evolution-of-alexey-navalnys-nationalism">quite far right</a> on the political spectrum, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/16/obit-navalny-putins-archenemy-and-anti-corruption-champion">Navalny became more moderate</a> over time. Nevertheless, his vision for Russia did not always align with western ideals.</p>
<p>Navalny believed Crimea <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2014/10/16/navalny-wouldnt-return-crimea-considers-immigration-bigger-issue-than-ukraine-a40477">should not automatically</a> be returned to Ukraine following Russia’s 2014 annexation, for example. This is consistent with nationalist arguments that <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/18/crimea-ukraine-putin-russia/6564263/">Crimea is part of Russia</a>. Furthermore, while Navalny’s views on immigration evolved, they were still <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/2/25/navalny-has-the-kremlin-foe-moved-on-from-his-nationalist-past">tinged with populism</a>. </p>
<p>Navalny understood his appeal to Russians, and how dangerous it was to Putin, very well. In 2020, Navalny was transported to Berlin for medical treatment after being poisoned with the <a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/06/watchdog-says-novichok-type-nerve-agent-found-in-navalny-samples-a71674">Novichok nerve agent</a>. Novichok, it should be noted, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/everything-you-need-to-know-about-novichok/30964840.html">has been used</a> <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/poisoning-dissidents-the-kremlins-preferred-method/a-66564778">frequently against Russian dissidents</a>. </p>
<p>Before returning to Russia to continue challenging Putin, Navalny released a video in case he died while in custody. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1758477103962468366"}"></div></p>
<p>In it, he told the Russian people:</p>
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<p>“If they decide to kill me, it means that we are incredibly strong. We need to utilize this power to not give up and to realize that we are a huge power that is being oppressed by these bad dudes. We don’t realize how strong we actually are.” </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Damaging Navalny’s legacy</h2>
<p>The West, by championing Navalny, risks diminishing his legacy as a champion of the Russian people due to <a href="https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/22/09/2022/russian-anti-western-intellectualism">prevalent anti-western sentiment within Russia</a>.</p>
<p>For years, Putin <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/17/europe/putin-navalny-existential-threat-analysis-intl/index.html">refused to mention</a> Navalny by name. The Russian leader’s supporters and government, however, were not so circumspect. The Kremlin, in fact, went so far as to accuse Navalny of being a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN26M4JA/">CIA agent</a>.</p>
<p>The world leaders who have expressed the most outrage after Navalny’s death are western: Biden, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/navalny-west-blames-putin-for-kremlin-critics-death/live-68275805">French President Emmanuel Macron</a>, <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/02/16/2024/how-world-leaders-are-reacting-to-alexei-navalnys-death">British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak</a> and others. </p>
<p>The contrast between these statements and those by Brazilian President <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/brazil-s-lula-says-navalny-s-death-should-be-probed-before-accusations/ar-BB1isWRR">Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva</a> and China’s <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-s-state-media-repeat-russian-talking-points-after-navalny-s-death/ar-BB1iwbko">state media</a> are stark. Neither statement condemned Putin for Navalny’s death.</p>
<p>Regardless of the validity of their noncommittal stances, these leaders have helped the Kremlin further link <a href="https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2024/02/19/3041870/kremlin-calls-western-politicians-statements-on-navalny-s-death-boorish">Navalny to the West</a>.</p>
<p>Navalny displayed great personal courage in his convictions by returning to Russia, knowing he would almost certainly <a href="https://time.com/5930595/alexei-navalny-return-russia-why/">face repression and imprisonment</a>.</p>
<p>People like Navalny’s wife, Yulia Navalnaya — not western leaders — are best placed to carry on the fight for Russia’s future. But they’ll only succeed if Navalny’s cause isn’t seen by Russian nationalists as being anchored to western ideals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223965/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Alexei Navalny’s successors — not western leaders — are best placed to carry on the fight for Russia’s future. But they’ll only succeed if Navalny’s cause isn’t seen as anchored to western ideals.James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser UniversityJack Adam MacLennan, Associate Professor of International Relations and National Security Studies and Graduate Program Director for National Security Studies, Park UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193602023-12-15T13:22:30Z2023-12-15T13:22:30ZA US ambassador working for Cuba? Charges against former diplomat Victor Manuel Rocha spotlight Havana’s importance in the world of spying<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/564965/original/file-20231211-19-9ppems.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C8%2C2830%2C2074&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A U.S. Justice Department image showing Victor Manuel Rocha during a meeting with an FBI undercover employee. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FormerAmbassadorArrested/b4d90c09c592424a9f30e01c3c7a423c/photo">U.S. Department of Justice via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The U.S. Department of Justice announced on Dec. 4, 2023, that Victor Manuel Rocha, a former U.S. government employee, had been arrested and faced federal charges for secretly acting for decades as <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-us-ambassador-and-national-security-council-official-charged-secretly-acting-agent">an agent of the Cuban government</a>. Rocha joined the State Department in 1981 and served for over 20 years, rising to the level of ambassador. After leaving the State Department, he served from 2006-2012 as an <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/national-international/manuel-rocha-charged-as-intelligence-mole-for-cuba-served-as-career-us-diplomat-in-latin-america/4919137/">adviser to the U.S. Southern Command</a>, a joint U.S. military command that handles operations in Latin America and the Caribbean.</em></p>
<p><em>Harvard Kennedy School intelligence and national security scholar <a href="https://calderwalton.com/">Calder Walton</a>, author of “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">Spies: The Epic Intelligence War Between East and West</a>,” provides perspective on what <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-us-ambassador-and-national-security-council-official-charged-secretly-acting-agent">U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland described</a> as “one of the highest-reaching and longest-lasting infiltrations of the United States government by a foreign agent.”</em></p>
<h2>How common is it for spies to embed in foreign governments?</h2>
<p>Every state seeks to place spies in this way. That’s the business of human intelligence: providing insights into a foreign government’s secret intentions and capabilities. </p>
<p>What makes Rocha’s case unusual is the length of his alleged espionage on behalf of Cuba: four decades. It’s important to emphasize the word alleged here – the case is underway, and Rocha has not yet offered a defense, let alone been convicted. </p>
<p>If proved, however, Rocha’s espionage would place him among the longest-serving spies in modern times. Allowing him to operate as a spy in the senior echelons of the U.S. government for so long would represent a staggering U.S. security failure.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Victor Manuel Rocha’s arrest is the culmination of a multiyear security investigation.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>What can a spy in this kind of position do?</h2>
<p>Typically, an embedded spy would be tasked by his or her recruiting intelligence service to take actions like stealing briefing papers, secret memorandums and other materials that show what decision-makers are thinking. Such work quickly resembles movie scenes – photographing secret documents, swapping information in public places or depositing it under lampposts and bridges. </p>
<p>Having an agent reach ambassador level would be a prize for any foreign intelligence service. Rocha held senior diplomatic postings in South America, including Bolivia, Argentina, Honduras, Mexico and the Dominican Republic. This would have given him, and thus his Cuban handlers, access to valuable intelligence about U.S. policy toward South America — and anything else that crossed his desk. </p>
<p>An embedded spy can also act as an “agent of influence” who works secretly to shape policies of the target government from within. This will be something to look for as the federal government discloses more information to support its charges against Rocha. </p>
<p>Presumably the U.S. intelligence community either already has carried out a damange assessment, or is urgently now conducting one, reviewing what secrets Rocha had access to during his diplomatic service – and whether, as ambassador to Bolivia, he may have shaped U.S. policy at the behest of Cuban intelligence.</p>
<h2>Has Cuban intelligence partnered with Russia, in the past or now?</h2>
<p>Cuban intelligence worked closely with the Soviets during the Cold War. After Fidel Castro took power in Cuba in 1959, Soviet intelligence maintained close personal liaisons with him. Cuba’s intelligence service, the DGI, later known as the DI, received <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">early training and support from the KGB</a>, Russia’s former secret police and intelligence agency.</p>
<p>From the 1960s through the 1980s, Cuban intelligence operatives acted as valuable proxies for the KGB in Latin America and various African countries, particularly Angola and Mozambique. But they didn’t just follow Moscow’s direction. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://cri.fiu.edu/faculty/brian-latell/">Brian Latell</a>, a former U.S. intelligence expert on Latin America, has shown, Castro’s intelligence service was often <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781137000019/castrossecrets">far more aggressive</a> than the Soviet Union in supporting communist revolutionary movements in developing countries. Indeed, at times, the KGB had to try to <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">rein in Cuban “adventurism</a>.” </p>
<p>One of Cuba’s greatest known espionage feats was recruiting and running a high-flying officer at the U.S. <a href="https://www.dia.mil/">Defense Intelligence Agency</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/True_Believer.html?id=cpksAAAAYAAJ">Ana Montes</a>, who spied for Cuba for 17 years before she was detected and convicted. To the best of my knowledge, there is no publicly avilable U.S. damage assessment of her espionage, but one senior CIA officer told me it was “breathtaking.”</p>
<p>Cuban intelligence recruited Montes while she was a university student and encouraged her to join the Defense Intelligence Agency. There, using a short-wave radio to pass coded messages and encrypted files to handlers, Montes betrayed a massive haul of U.S. secrets, including identities of U.S. intelligence officers and descriptions of U.S. eavesdropping facilities directed against Cuba. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Ana Montes spied for Cuba at the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency for 17 years. She returned to her native Puerto Rico in 2023 after serving 20 years in prison.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Cuban and Russian intelligence agencies maintained their ties after the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union collapsed. That relationship has only strengthened since Vladimir Putin, an old KGB hand, took power in the Kremlin in 1999. </p>
<p>Putin’s government reopened a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/russia-reopening-spy-base-cuba-us-relations-sour">massive old Soviet signals intelligence facility in Cuba</a>, <a href="https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp80t01782r000100710001-8">near Havana</a>. This facility had been the Soviet Union’s largest foreign signals intelligence station in the world, with aerials and antennae pointed at Florida shores just 100 miles away. </p>
<p>Soviet records reveal that Moscow <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">obtained valuable information from U.S. military bases in Florida</a>. Russia may well still be trying to try to eavesdrop on U.S. targets today from Cuba, although the U.S. government is doubtless alert to such efforts and is likely undertaking countermeasures.</p>
<p>Cuban intelligence today is also collaborating with China, which reportedly plans to open <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-to-host-secret-chinese-spy-base-focusing-on-u-s-b2fed0e0">its own eavesdropping station in Cuba</a>. Beijing has significant influence over Cuba as its largest creditor and, following in Soviet footsteps, views the island as a valuable intelligence collection base and a “bridgehead” — the KGB’s old code name for Cuba — for influence in Latin America.</p>
<h2>If Rocha is proved guilty, how would he rank historically among other spies?</h2>
<p>It remains to be seen what damage Rocha may have done while allegedly working as a Cuban spy. His tenure in the U.S. government, however, would place him right up there with the most successful, and thus damaging, spies in modern history. </p>
<p>The longest-running Soviet foreign intelligence agent in Britain, Melita Norwood, <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">spied for the KGB for four decades</a>. When she was exposed in 1999, the unrepentant 87-year-old great-grandmother was quickly dubbed “the great granny spy” in the British tabloid press. </p>
<p>In the United States, the highest Soviet penetration of the executive branch was probably <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">Lauchlin Currie</a>, who was President Franklin Roosevelt’s White House assistant during World War II. Records obtained after the Soviet Union’s collapse reveal that <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/christopher-andrew/the-sword-and-the-shield/9780465010035/?lens=basic-books">Currie acted as a Soviet agent</a>. </p>
<p>The greatest damage to U.S. national security, however, was done in the 1980s and 1990s by <a href="https://www.usni.org/press/books/circle-treason">Aldrich Ames at the CIA</a> and <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/A-Spy-in-Plain-Sight/Lis-Wiehl/9781639364572">Robert Hanssen at the FBI</a>. Each man betrayed a wealth of secrets, including U.S. intelligence operations. The information that Ames stole for the Soviets led to the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1995/06/12/naming-those-betrayed-by-ames/5ed7accf-bcdd-4b8a-9de5-75a2b422044a/">arrest and execution</a> of Soviet agents working for U.S. intelligence behind the Iron Curtain. </p>
<p>In due course, we will find out whether Rocha occupies a place of similar ignominy in U.S. history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219360/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calder Walton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Cuba gets less attention as an espionage threat than Russia or China, but is a potent player in the spy world. Its intelligence service has already penetrated the US government at least once.Calder Walton, Assistant Director, Applied History Project and Intelligence Project, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2193472023-12-08T15:25:48Z2023-12-08T15:25:48ZEisenhower’s Atoms for Peace speech on nuclear dangers has important lessons even after 70 years<p>Seventy years ago, on December 8 1953, US president Dwight D. Eisenhower delivered a <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">speech</a> to the United Nations general assembly, setting out his concerns about “atomic warfare”. </p>
<p>In the speech, later known as <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxGSfOd1Dpc">Atoms for Peace</a>, he outlined a plan for new forms of international cooperation around nuclear technology, calling for “lasting peace for all nations, and happiness and well-being for all men”.</p>
<p>In 2023, nuclear technology has been very much in the headlines, from the potential of nuclear <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9825/">threats</a> during the war in Ukraine to <a href="https://theconversation.com/oppenheimer-the-actor-the-curious-1946-film-atomic-power-featuring-the-scientist-as-himself-210498">cinematically capturing</a> the history behind the first atomic bomb in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/jul/22/oppenheimer-review-christopher-nolan-volatile-biopic-is-a-towering-achievement-cillian-murphy">Oppenheimer</a>. </p>
<p>The speech is largely forgotten but it fundamentally shaped the nuclear world we live in today, and remains highly relevant to how decision-makers engage with such cross-border developments as <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/19/ai-regulation-development-us-china-competition-technology/">generative AI</a>. For all their differences, when they were created both nuclear reactors and AI represented <a href="https://brandoncornett.medium.com/6-unsettling-similarities-between-ai-and-nuclear-weapons-932277f9f59e">newly emerging technologies</a> that “spurred a global race for dominance”, fundamentally challenging existing systems and with potential for both peaceful and military uses. </p>
<h2>Why the speech happened</h2>
<p>In 1953, eight years after the second world war, an armistice concluded the <a href="https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/research/online-documents/korean-war">Korean War</a> (1950-1953) but the wider cold war was characterised by an accelerating nuclear arms race. US nuclear technology was <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">under tight control</a>, restricting any exports, even to wartime allies. </p>
<p>Nuclear reactors mainly created fuel for warheads. The <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/outline-history-of-nuclear-energy.aspx#:%7E:text=The%20PWR%20used%20enriched%20uranium,Nautilus%2C%20was%20launched%20in%201954.">first power plants</a> and first nuclear submarines were only just being constructed.</p>
<p>Eisenhower’s speech, and the US <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Lavoy">Atoms for Peace</a> programme that followed, completely changed this, proposing a sharing of technology and nuclear material with different countries. There was <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">wide dissemination</a> of Eisenhower’s words beyond the UN. </p>
<p>Hundreds of thousands of pamphlets of the speech were sent out, printed in ten languages. US and foreign media were inundated with <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">information and advertising</a>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">US president Eisenhower gave a speech about international cooperation around nuclear power in 1953.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Public spread of ideas</h2>
<p>One of the speech’s public legacies was encouraging wider public engagement with the idea of what “nuclear” actually was. This inspired new popular culture and educational materials promoting ideas of atomic-powered futures, such as the iconic Walt Disney 1956 <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11191-021-00284-1">science book</a> and TV programme <a href="https://expo.uoregon.edu/spotlight/tomorrows-scientists/feature/our-friend-the-atom">Our Friend the Atom</a>. </p>
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<p>Eisenhower’s speech called for a UN-based International Atomic Energy Agency (<a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/overview/history#:%7E:text=The%20Agency's%20genesis%20was%20U.S.,the%20International%20Atomic%20Energy%20Agency.">IAEA</a>), eventually founded in 1957, promoting peaceful nuclear use while discouraging weapons proliferation. It remains a crucial international entity in nuclear verification, nuclear safety, and promotion of peaceful uses of <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/11/06/why-does-iaea-do-what-it-does-pub-74689">nuclear technology</a>, most recently through activities such as monitoring the safety of the <a href="https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-200-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine">Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant</a> during the Ukraine war. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.neimagazine.com/features/feature60-years-of-atoms-for-peace-4164653/">Paradoxically</a>, however, Atoms for Peace also had opposite effects. The reactors and technical expertise, supplied for civilian energy or research, provided crucial foundations for proliferation. </p>
<p>The tools and knowledge were repurposed by some countries to develop their own nuclear weapons, including, in the first instance, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">India and Pakistan</a>. Israel is <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9075/">widely believed</a> to have benefited, although it continues to deny it has nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>One of the speech’s most visible impacts was in signalling, both to domestic and international audiences, a significant change in US policy towards supplying other nations with nuclear science. </p>
<p>It paved the way for the restrictive <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Lavoy">US Atomic Energy Act to be revised</a> the following year, to allow sharing of technology and building of reactors in different countries. This significantly increased global development of nuclear power and nuclear research in areas from <a href="https://www.neimagazine.com/features/feature60-years-of-atoms-for-peace-4164653/">agriculture to medicine</a>.</p>
<p>However, it’s worth remembering that Atoms for Peace took place in parallel with a wider US cold war strategy of pursuing nuclear superiority. Just over a month before his UN speech, Eisenhower approved a significant expansion in America’s nuclear arsenal. </p>
<p>Warhead numbers increased from around <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0096340213501363">1,100 to more than 18,000</a> during his presidency. He also considered the potential use of nuclear weapons in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1984/06/08/world/us-papers-tell-of-53-policy-to-use-a-bomb-in-korea.html">conventional conflicts</a>. </p>
<h2>Peaceful shared plans</h2>
<p>Eisenhower also tried to set up an international <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.2968/059006009">uranium bank</a>, with US and Soviet joint contributions from their stockpiles of “normal uranium and <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">fissionable materials</a>”. These would be contributed to a pool, shared with other countries for peaceful purposes, both to help restrict the arms race and “provide abundant electrical energy in the power-starved <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">areas of the world</a>”.</p>
<p>However, this bank was <a href="https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/neff.pdf">never created</a>, partly because of Soviet concerns that it would continue to allow US leadership of nuclear weapons technology. Instead, bilateral agreements were struck to supply nuclear energy and materials.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, spreading “peaceful” technology, supplying nuclear reactors and material for energy and civil research, became a cold war and commercial “<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00076791.2020.1845316">weapon</a>”, aiming to tie uranium and technology exports to fulfilling conditions or continued dependence on the selling countries to supply fuel.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/are-small-nuclear-reactors-the-solution-to-canadas-net-zero-ambitions-217354">Are small nuclear reactors the solution to Canada’s net-zero ambitions?</a>
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<p>Ironically, this echoed one US fear which had helped motivate Atoms for Peace: the prospect of the <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_12/Lavoy">Soviet Union sharing nuclear energy</a> as a way of influencing other countries and creating alliances.</p>
<p>These developments are particular relevant today. Russian attacks on Ukraine’s <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/17/what-comes-after-russia-s-attack-on-ukrainian-nuclear-power-station-pub-86667">nuclear power plants</a> during the current war have received much attention, but what is less well known is Russia’s nuclear energy empire, with contracts and construction spanning 54 countries.</p>
<p>This has remained “largely below the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-023-01228-5">sanctions radar</a>”, while remaining a significant source of international influence for Russia. </p>
<h2>Nuclear’s reach today</h2>
<p>As of <a href="https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/nuclear-power-in-the-world-today.aspx">November 2023</a>, approximately 10% of the world’s energy was supplied from more than 400 nuclear reactors, while 40 million nuclear medical procedures are <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/house-documents/parliament-42/session-2/2021-11-02/hansard-1">performed each year</a>, using radioactive materials to diagnose or treat different diseases.</p>
<p>In 2023, policymakers continue grappling with related nuclear issues, whether proposals for new small modular <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-small-nuclear-reactors-the-solution-to-canadas-net-zero-ambitions-217354">nuclear reactors</a>, <a href="https://www.space.com/moon-rolls-royce-nuclear-reactor-concept-unveiled">nuclear power in space</a>, debates around <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/role-nuclear-power-energy-mix-reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions/">potential for nuclear power</a> in addressing climate change or fears of <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2023/08/29/a-new-nuclear-arms-race-looms">new nuclear arms races</a>. </p>
<p>Faced with such challenges, <a href="https://www.iaea.org/about/history/atoms-for-peace-speech">Eisenhower’s words</a>: “If a danger exists in the world, it is a danger shared by all; and equally, that if hope exists in the mind of one nation, that hope should be shared by all” seem as relevant today, as they did in 1953.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219347/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Noël Peacock is a Lecturer in History and War studies, and Co-Director of the Games and Gaming Lab at the University of Glasgow.</span></em></p>A climate of fear about international war inspired Eisenhower’s Atoms of Peace speech in 1953, his words about global peace seem relevant to global peace today.Timothy Noël Peacock, Lecturer in History, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2157812023-11-29T13:37:58Z2023-11-29T13:37:58ZA brief history of the US-Israel ‘special relationship’ shows how connections have shifted since long before the 1948 founding of the Jewish state<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561922/original/file-20231127-30-ocla3g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C24%2C3269%2C2376&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. President Harry Truman holds a Torah given to him by Chaim Weizmann, the first president of Israel, in May 1948.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/washington-dc-president-truman-holds-the-torah-or-sacred-news-photo/514876256">Bettmann via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In his first remarks after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel, President Joe Biden affirmed the United States offered “<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/10/07/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-terrorist-attacks-in-israel/">rock solid and unwavering</a>” support to Israel, “just as we have (done) from the moment the United States became the first nation to recognize Israel, 11 minutes after its founding, 75 years ago.”</p>
<p>Vowing to destroy Hamas, Israel has launched a war on Gaza that as of the end of November had killed <a href="https://www.ochaopt.org/">more than 14,000 Palestinians</a>. The fighting has also destroyed much of Gaza and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-strip-palestinian-civilian-deaths-displaced-after-1-month/">displaced about 70% of its population</a>. </p>
<p>Israel, with U.S. backing, has not heeded <a href="https://interagencystandingcommittee.org/inter-agency-standing-committee/we-need-immediate-humanitarian-ceasefire-statement-principals-inter-agency-standing-committee">calls for an immediate cease-fire</a> or U.N. demands to <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2023-11-19/statement-the-secretary-general-gaza%C2%A0">stop targeting civilians</a>. The Biden administration appears to have played a key role in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/21/us/politics/biden-hostage-talks-israel-hamas.html">negotiating a temporary truce and an exchange</a> of hostages and prisoners between Israel and Hamas. </p>
<p>I <a href="https://dornsife.usc.edu/profile/fayez-hammad/">teach courses on Middle East politics</a> and the Arab-Israeli conflict, which includes the interconnected Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the conflict between Israel and Arab states. The roots of the U.S.-Israel relationship predate 1948 and provide context for what has long been characterized as a “special” relationship between the two countries – one that now appears crucial to Israel’s prosecution of a war in Gaza.</p>
<p>During the Cold War, it was the perception in the U.S. that Israel’s strategic value served as justification for the special relationship. While Israel has its own interests regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict, a supportive Congress and American domestic lobbyists have presented them as consistent with those of the U.S.</p>
<p>The Bible, Christian Zionism, popular culture, memorialization of the Holocaust after 1967 and the shared approach in the U.S. and Israel toward the land and the indigenous populations have all led to the transformation of Jews and Israelis from “outsiders” to “insiders” in the U.S. </p>
<p>This cultural and political affinity is behind the U.S.’s current unconditional support for Israel, as well as the fact that the U.S. is seen in the region and beyond as deeply implicated in Israel’s actions.</p>
<p>But since President Harry Truman <a href="https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/education/presidential-inquiries/recognition-israel">recognized Israel in 1948</a>, presidential policies show that the U.S.-Israel relationship has not always been “rock solid.”</p>
<h2>Pre-statehood: The United States and Zionism</h2>
<p>With an <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Palestine">Arab majority for more than a millennium until 1948</a>, the territory then called Palestine was <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/middle-east/ottoman-empire">part of the Ottoman Empire from 1517</a> until <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/27/palestine-and-israel-brief-history-maps-and-charts">Britain captured it during World War I</a>.</p>
<p>The Zionist movement achieved a major objective in November 1917, when Britain, for strategic and religious reasons, issued the <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/balfour.asp">Balfour Declaration</a> in support of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine. U.S. President Woodrow Wilson endorsed both this declaration and the League of Nations-sanctioned British administrative power over Palestine.</p>
<p>In Palestine, Britain used its administrative power, under what was called <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/palmanda.asp">the Mandate over Palestine</a>, to advance the Zionist project. The rise of Hitler and U.S. entry into World War II led American Zionists in 1942 to adopt the <a href="https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-biltmore-conference-1942">Biltmore Program</a>, which called for unrestricted Jewish immigration to Palestine and for turning the territory into a Jewish state. The revelation of the full scale of Nazi atrocities boosted U.S. support for Zionism, effectively shifting the center of political Zionism from London to Washington.</p>
<p>The 1944 Democratic Party platform backed the “opening of Palestine to <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/1944-democratic-party-platform">unrestricted Jewish immigration and colonization</a>” and the creation of a Jewish state. But fearing damage to U.S. war efforts, President Franklin Roosevelt wrote to several Arab governments shortly before his death in 1945 that no action toward Palestine would be taken “<a href="https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1945v08/d681">which might prove hostile to the Arab people</a>.”</p>
<h2>Israel, the United States and the Cold War</h2>
<p>President Harry Truman was sympathetic to Zionism because of his <a href="https://www.jpost.com/christianworld/article-704006">evangelical Christian upbringing</a>. He endorsed the 1947 U.N. <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-185393/">Partition Plan for Palestine</a> to create an Arab state and a Jewish state and, despite <a href="https://search.worldcat.org/title/608624908">opposition</a> from within the administration, <a href="https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/press-release-announcing-us-recognition-of-israel#transcript">recognized the State of Israel</a> on May 14, 1948. </p>
<p>Truman, however, refused to send weapons to either side of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, because he viewed the conflict as a source of instability in the face of the emerging communist threat. In that war, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2023/11/03/israel-nakba-history-1948/">750,000 Palestinians fled or were expelled</a>, becoming refugees from the land that became Israel. </p>
<p>President Dwight Eisenhower also sought to prevent Soviet penetration into the Middle East and attempted to maintain impartiality toward the Arab-Israeli conflict. He even threatened to cut off all official and private aid and to <a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/The-Iron-Wall/">expel Israel from the U.N.</a> to force Israel’s withdrawal from Egyptian territory, the Sinai, in 1957.</p>
<h2>The conflict and US-Israeli special relationship</h2>
<p>President John F. Kennedy coined the term “<a href="https://academic.oup.com/dh/article-abstract/22/2/231/407328">special relationship</a>” about the two countries’ connection. He hoped that in exchange for U.S. defensive weapons, Israel would support <a href="https://www.un.org/unispal/document/auto-insert-211174/">his plan</a>, based on <a href="https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/RESOLUTION/GEN/NR0/043/65/PDF/NR004365.pdf?OpenElement">U.N. Resolution 194</a>, which called for repatriation or compensation for the Palestinian refugees and allow effective inspections of <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/israel-and-the-bomb/9780231104838">its nuclear program</a>. Israel accepted the weapons but refused to cooperate on the other issues, neither of which was discussed again.</p>
<p>President Lyndon Johnson viewed Israel as a strategic asset and sent it advanced offensive weapons. Johnson supported Israel’s attack on Egypt, Syria and Jordan in the June 1967 war, when Israel first occupied the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Johnson also endorsed the November 1967 <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/SCRes242%281967%29.pdf">U.N. Resolution 242</a>, which conditioned Israeli withdrawal on Arab states’ recognition of, and entering into peace treaties with, Israel. Israel’s swift victory transformed the U.S.-Israeli relationship, elevating Israel into a critical component of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41805051">American Jewish identity</a> and solidifying pro-Israel policies in Washington.</p>
<p>President Richard Nixon provided Israel with a massive increase in military and economic aid because he accepted uncritically Israel’s claim that the Soviets were the main cause of tension in the Middle East, and because of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. Generous aid packages have since become routine: In recent years, U.S. aid to Israel has been about US$3 billion to $4 billion annually, totaling almost <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/oct/18/us-aid-to-israel-what-to-know/">$318 billion since World War II</a>, including the value of weapons.</p>
<p>While President Jimmy Carter brokered the 1979 Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, the Ronald Reagan administration later moved away from an active peace process and, within a Soviet-centered focus, signed with Israel memoranda on strategic cooperation, elevating the relationship to a new strategic level. The administration supported Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, refused to label <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/02/03/us/reagan-is-prepared-to-hold-arms-talks-if-soviet-is-sincere.html">West Bank settlements as illegal</a>, concluded with Israel and the U.S.’s <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/israel-fta">first free trade agreement</a> and designated Israel in 1987 “<a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-israel/">a major non-NATO ally</a>.”</p>
<p>President Bill Clinton brokered the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1993-2000/oslo">Oslo Accords</a>, in which Israel agreed to withdraw from areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and cede some control to a new political entity, the Palestinian Authority. But Clinton failed to achieve a permanent Palestinian-Israeli agreement, and his administration, according to one U.S. negotiator, acted as “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2005/05/23/israels-lawyer/7ab0416c-9761-4d4a-80a9-82b7e15e5d22/">Israel’s attorney</a>, catering and coordinating with the Israelis at the expense of successful peace negotiations.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561936/original/file-20231127-27-vaazae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men shake hands while a third stands between them, smiling." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561936/original/file-20231127-27-vaazae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561936/original/file-20231127-27-vaazae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561936/original/file-20231127-27-vaazae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561936/original/file-20231127-27-vaazae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561936/original/file-20231127-27-vaazae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561936/original/file-20231127-27-vaazae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/561936/original/file-20231127-27-vaazae.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, left, shakes hands with PLO leader Yasser Arafat as U.S. President Bill Clinton looks on after the signing of the Oslo Accords in September 1993.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-bill-clinton-stands-between-plo-leader-yasser-news-photo/463575454">J. David Ake, Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘peace process’ and the ‘war on terrorism’</h2>
<p>In the wake of 9/11, President George W. Bush accepted Israel’s narrative that it was waging its own war on terrorism and its condition that a change of Palestinian leadership must precede any further negotiations. But neither <a href="https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2002/06/20020624-3.html">Bush’s call for a Palestinian state</a> nor the 2005 election of Mahmoud Abbas as president of the Palestinian Authority led to an agreement.</p>
<p>In 2006, the Bush administration pushed for, and <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/112456/george-w-bushs-secret-war-against-hamas">endorsed the participation of Hamas</a> in, Palestinian legislative elections. When Hamas won and formed a new government, both Israel and the U.S. refused to deal with it, imposed sanctions on the Palestinian Authority and worked to widen the split between Hamas and Abbas’ Fatah party. Bush even supported a <a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2008/04/gaza200804">covert plan to spark civil war between Palestinians</a>, which in fact led to a Hamas-Fatah military confrontation. That fight ended with Hamas’ takeover of Gaza, which led Israel to impose a blockade on Gaza in 2007.</p>
<p>President Barack <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/10/world/middleeast/obama-administration-defends-israeli-airstrikes-but-cautions-against-ground-war.html">Obama supported Israeli attacks on Gaza</a>, which failed to eliminate Hamas’ military threat. Diplomatically, Obama was reluctant to get directly involved, while Israel continued to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-offers-temporary-settlement-freeze/">refuse to permanently freeze settlement building</a>.</p>
<p>President Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.state.gov/the-abraham-accords/">Abraham Accords</a> and the recent discussions under the Biden administration to establish Israeli-Saudi diplomatic relations assumed that the Arab-Israeli conflict could be solved without solving the Palestinian conflict. But the current war challenges such an assumption and illustrates that current U.S. support for Israel is indeed “rock solid and unwavering.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fayez Hammad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A historian of the Middle East examines the decades-old ‘special relationship’ between Israel and the US.Fayez Hammad, Lecturer in Political Science and International Relations, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and SciencesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2170902023-11-21T23:04:11Z2023-11-21T23:04:11ZJFK’s death 60 years on: what Australian condolence letters reveal about us<p>US President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas 60 years ago, on November 22 1963. Within hours, the news ricocheted around the world. </p>
<p>Perhaps we could imagine a substantial impact in Europe, where Kennedy had only recently, and somewhat famously, <a href="https://www.jfklibrary.org/archives/other-resources/john-f-kennedy-speeches/berlin-w-germany-rudolph-wilde-platz-19630626">declared</a> “Ich bin ein Berliner”. </p>
<p>But Kennedy’s death was also deeply felt in Australia, prompting many people to write personal letters to Jacqueline Kennedy. They paint a revealing portrait of life down under in the 1960s.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jfk-conspiracy-theory-is-debunked-in-mexico-57-years-after-kennedy-assassination-148138">JFK conspiracy theory is debunked in Mexico 57 years after Kennedy assassination</a>
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<h2>Letters from ‘far flung corners’</h2>
<p>People from around the world felt compelled to write to the first lady. </p>
<p>Some <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2013/11/jfk-assassination-jacqueline-kennedy-mourned-in-public-with-grace-purpose-and-blood-on-her-suit.html">45,000 letters</a> arrived on one day alone. White House staff were still processing more than one million letters years later. </p>
<p>Sometimes they came with cards and gifts, including pieces of especially composed music. </p>
<p>Hundreds of letters came all the way from Australia, from what a Rockhampton woman described as “a far flung corner”.</p>
<p>At a time when the national sentiment under Menzies’ leadership was more in favour of the United Kingdom than the United States, it’s somewhat surprising Kennedy’s death prompted such an outpouring of grief.</p>
<p>Kennedy never visited the “far flung corner”. There was some talk that he would come to Australia as part of a wider visit to the Pacific, but diplomatic sensibilities and logistics proved difficult to overcome.</p>
<p>In any case, one of the proposed dates clashed with <a href="https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/original/00000843.pdf">a visit</a> from the Queen Mother. </p>
<p>But some believed it was the assassination that ended the plans. A Sydney couple wrote to Jacqueline Kennedy:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I believe you were to honour us by a visit from you & the President this year […] but fate decided against it to our deepest disappointment […] and regret. We were all looking forward so eagerly to that great pleasure. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Interestingly, that same letter suggested that Robert Kennedy might have time in the future to bring Jacqueline and the children to Australia, revealing how restrictive gender roles were understood in 1963.</p>
<h2>Political figures as personal friends</h2>
<p>Many of the letter writers admitted they mourned Kennedy as if he was a family member or a close friend. </p>
<p>A lot of this intimacy came from watching Kennedy on television.</p>
<p>One man from Mt Kuring-gai explained after he began his letter with “Dear Jacki”: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I ask your pardon for using your Christian name, but I feel that both you and John Kennedy are my personal friends. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Similar sentiments were expressed by a Brisbane woman:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Television is a wonderful thing […] although you have never met me, yet by seeing you several times on the television screen, I feel that I have met you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>During the Kennedy years, the quantity of TV time devoted to news in the US expanded considerably, meaning that mediated access to Kennedy also increased. </p>
<p>His youth, Hollywood good looks, and his glamorous wife became part of US and Australian cultural consumption. </p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-withering-public-trust-in-government-be-traced-back-to-the-jfk-assassination-87719">Can withering public trust in government be traced back to the JFK assassination?</a>
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<p>The <a href="https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/41860109?browse=ndp%3Abrowse%2Ftitle%2FA%2Ftitle%2F112%2F1962%2F10%2F10%2Fpage%2F4932576%2Farticle%2F41860109">Australian Women’s Weekly</a> also helped to popularise the Kennedy image. Readers were shown how to make their own Jackie pillbox hat and cultivate Jacqueline Kennedy’s intellectual style. The magazine instructed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Start by reading the newspaper, go to art exhibitions, see a few historical film spectaculars, and learn to read a menu in French. Don’t chatter. </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Seeing themselves in the Kennedys</h2>
<p>Widows and mothers especially identified with Jacqueline Kennedy. They wrote to her “as woman to woman”, relating their own grief experiences and offering to help mind the “kiddies”, if only she lived closer.</p>
<p>Catholics also wrote in large numbers. Kennedy was the great Catholic hero at a time of deep sectarianism in Australian society. They were proud of his political success. </p>
<p>It also helped that he had Irish roots, like much of the Catholic priesthood in Australia at the time. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-luck-of-the-irish-might-surface-on-st-patricks-day-but-it-evades-the-kennedy-family-americas-best-known-irish-dynasty-201445">The luck of the Irish might surface on St. Patrick's Day, but it evades the Kennedy family, America's best-known Irish dynasty</a>
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<p>During the Cold War, Kennedy offered a sense of security.</p>
<p>That proved important to Robert Menzies in his reelection campaign, given that Kennedy died only a week before polling day. Labor Party leader Arthur Calwell saw the writing on the wall. </p>
<p>When Menzies mentioned Kennedy while electioneering, Calwell <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20635464?seq=4">complained</a> that Menzies was trying to use the assassination for political purposes. </p>
<p>Calwell’s messaging didn’t cut through. Instead, voters wanted safety and familiarity in their leadership amid global upheaval.</p>
<p>One Strathfield woman who wrote to Jacqueline Kennedy explained that the idea of Menzies’ having “been in too long” disappeared with the assassination. She said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] there was a great swing to Liberals & they won with the amazing majority of 22 seats.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A unique mixture of television, religion and personality meant Kennedy’s death had cultural repercussions in “the far flung corner”. We would not see a grief response like this again until the death of the Princess of Wales, 34 years later. </p>
<p>But so great was the impact in Cold War-era Australia that the death of an overseas president also had some bearing on the formation of government back home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Clark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Hundreds of Australians wrote to Jackie Kennedy after her husband was killed. The letters paint a revealing portrait of who we were and who we wanted to be.Jennifer Clark, Professor of History, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2177542023-11-16T01:35:59Z2023-11-16T01:35:59ZWhat Joe Biden’s meeting with Xi Jinping means for geopolitical tensions<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/what-joe-bidens-meeting-with-xi-jinping-means-for-geopolitical-tensions" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>U.S. President Joe Biden has engaged in a crucial <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/joe-biden-has-points-to-prove-as-he-meets-xi-jinping-on-wednesday/articleshow/105217280.cms">face-to-face meeting</a> with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco.</p>
<p>This high-stakes diplomatic encounter was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/15/politics/biden-xi-meeting/index.html">aimed at alleviating tensions between the world’s two superpowers</a>. The meeting carried immense significance as leaders of the world’s largest economies seek to establish a sense of stability following a challenging year in U.S.-China relations.</p>
<p>Even though both leaders have said they want <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-xi-apec-san-francisco-58d11e7e3902955302182c2bc41430e0">to stabilize their relationship</a>, the meeting is unlikely to bring about transformative changes between the two countries that are inherently antagonistic due to deeper structural reasons. </p>
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<h2>New Cold War?</h2>
<p>The U.S. and China are enmeshed in a grand power competition in which <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-long-game-chinas-grand-strategy-to-displace-american-order/">China aspires to supplant the United States as a superpower</a> while the U.S. aims to maintain its position. </p>
<p>This rivalry spans various facets of global politics, encompassing military, economic and technological domains. However, the contours of this new Cold War differ markedly <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/cold-war">from the previous one</a>, with three key distinctions:</p>
<ol>
<li>In contrast to the Soviet Union, China is intricately woven into the American-built economic order. <a href="https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2021/09/28/how-the-liberal-international-order-shaped-chinas-challenge-to-global-economic-governance/">Beijing’s integration</a> into the global economic framework has been instrumental in its substantial economic development. Unlike the Soviet Union, which existed outside this economic order, China’s active participation has transformed the dynamics of the current geopolitical landscape.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/business/us-china-economy-trade.html">economic interdependence</a> between the U.S. and China sets this rivalry apart. Unlike the relatively self-contained economies of the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, China relies on the American market for its product sales, while the U.S. depends on China for financial transactions.</li>
<li>People-to-people contact between the U.S. and China surpasses the ties between the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. With a 5.4 million-strong <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/chinese-immigrants-united-states/">Chinese diaspora</a> in the U.S. and 300,000 Chinese students studying in American universities, the connections between both countries make outright hostilities less likely.</li>
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<h2>Stabilizing relations</h2>
<p>In this context, the term coined by American political scientist Joseph Nye — “<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/joe-biden-us-china-relations-cooperative-rivalry-by-joseph-s-nye-2021-05">co-operative rivalry</a>” — aptly characterizes Chinese-American relations. </p>
<p>The challenges of our globalized world — including climate change, pandemics, artificial intelligence, economic volatility and human security — necessitate active Chinese participation. These challenges make it particularly important that the U.S. and China stabilize relations. </p>
<p>The current emphasis on competition over co-operation needs to be shelved. Both nations should seek equilibrium by fostering co-operation in areas of mutual interest while navigating competition in areas of divergence.</p>
<p>Already complex relations between the U.S. and China have been tense in recent years. China was miffed when former U.S. House Speaker <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/pelosi-taiwan-china-us-1.6538434">Nancy Pelosi visited</a> Taiwan in August 2022. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nancy-pelosis-visit-to-taiwan-causes-an-ongoing-chinese-tantrum-in-the-taiwan-strait-188205">Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan causes an ongoing Chinese tantrum in the Taiwan Strait</a>
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<p>Because China asserts territorial claims over Taiwan, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/29/asia/tsai-ing-wen-taiwan-president-us-stopover-central-america-trip-intl-hnk/index.html">a stopover</a> in the U.S. by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen added to the list of contentious issues. </p>
<p>Beijing also expressed displeasure over new <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/07/biden-administration-tech-restrictions-china">U.S. exports restrictions</a> on advanced technology, and Biden’s directive to shoot down a Chinese <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/09/politics/spy-balloon-technology/index.html">spy balloon</a> in February 2023.</p>
<h2>Spats intensified</h2>
<p>Tensions escalated to the point that China severed military-to-military communications with the U.S. after Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, despite <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3224794/why-china-still-refusing-resume-military-dialogue-us-despite-antony-blinkens-latest-appeal">repeated American appeals for China to reopen these lines of communication</a> to prevent any misconceptions or accidental escalations of conflict in the South China region and Taiwan. </p>
<p>When the U.S. downed the Chinese spy balloon, China’s foreign ministry contended that it was conducting meteorological research. American authorities, however, insisted it carried surveillance equipment inconsistent with a weather balloon.</p>
<p>In response to the balloon incident, Secretary of State Antony Blinken <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/03/politics/china-us-balloon-intl/index.html">cancelled his planned visit to Beijing</a> in protest. </p>
<p>Subsequently, China declined to reschedule the visit for several months. This communications void at both military and political levels between China and the U.S. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/amid-tensions-biden-xi-discuss-restoring-us-china/story?id=104916838">posed a significant risk of potentially dangerous consequences</a>. One of the outcomes of the Biden-Xi meeting is that military-to-military discussions will resume.</p>
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<h2>The Xi-Biden meeting</h2>
<p>Prior to the meeting, U.S. National Security Adviser <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/national-security-adviser-jake-sullivan-face-the-nation-transcript-11-12-2023/">Jake Sullivan emphasized</a> the importance of addressing fundamental aspects of the U.S.-China relationship, highlighting the need to strengthen open lines of communication and responsibly manage competition to prevent it from escalating into conflict.</p>
<p>Sullivan acknowledged the necessity of “intense diplomacy” to clarify misconceptions and avert surprises.</p>
<p>China’s economy is currently <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/why-is-chinas-economy-slowing-down-could-it-get-worse-2023-09-01/">experiencing a slowdown</a>, marked by falling prices due to subdued demand from both consumers and businesses. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economists-stick-to-2024-china-outlook-while-assessing-stimulus-1.1991680">With a projected economic growth of five per cent this year and an expected dip to 4.5 per cent in 2024</a>, these economic challenges have adversely affected Xi’s domestic political standing. That may be behind any motivation to improve relations with the U.S. to address these domestic issues.</p>
<p>Biden, too, is keen on stabilizing relations with China. Confronted with escalating conflicts in the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/14/israel-hamas-war-list-of-key-events-day-39">Middle East</a> and the ongoing <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-says-russian-frontline-attacks-rising-germany-says-eu-won-t-meet-1m-pieces-of-ammo-target/ar-AA1jTjAI">war in Ukraine</a>, Biden is eager to avert the emergence of another global crisis during his tenure. </p>
<p>Restoring a semblance of stability to the Washington-Beijing relationship <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/11/14/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china/">has been among the top priorities in his foreign policy agenda.</a> </p>
<h2>What the meeting might accomplish</h2>
<p>One summit alone cannot resolve the extensive list of grievances between the two superpowers. Those challenges include issues like espionage, intellectual property theft, human rights abuses, foreign interference and trade penalties, as well as the sensitive matter of Taiwan. </p>
<p>The meeting addressed another point of contention between the two countries: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/biden-xi-talk-fentanyl-city-gripped-by-opioid-crisis-2023-11-15/">fentanyl shipments</a>. The leaders announced an agreement intended to stop China’s illicit exports of chemicals that can be used to make the drug that has led to the overdose deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans.</p>
<p>The agreement on re-opening communication channels at both military and civilian levels could be a crucial step in improving China-U.S. relations. It might serve as a foundation to prevent relations from spiralling out of control, and lay the groundwork for addressing broader challenges in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217754/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saira Bano does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Relations between the U.S. and China have been particularly tense for the last few years. Can one summit between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping significantly improve relations?Saira Bano, Assistant Professor in Political Science, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172192023-11-08T13:50:07Z2023-11-08T13:50:07ZRussia’s decision to ditch cold war arms limitation treaty raises tensions with Nato<p>Russia has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-formally-withdraws-key-post-cold-war-european-armed-forces-treaty-2023-11-07/#">pulled out</a> of an important cold war-era treaty which limited categories of conventional military equipment that Nato and the then-Warsaw Pact could deploy. The <a href="https://www.osce.org/library/14087">1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE)</a> was intended to use the warming of relations between east and west to minimise the risk of war in Europe.</p>
<p>Announcing its intention to withdraw from the treaty, Russia’s foreign ministry said the push for enlargement of Nato had led to alliance countries “openly circumventing” the treaty’s group restrictions. It added that the admission of Finland into Nato and Sweden’s application meant the treaty was dead.</p>
<p>The CFE treaty had aimed to reduce the opportunity for either side to launch a rapid offensive against the other. It placed verifiable limits on certain types of military equipment such as tanks, aircraft and artillery pieces. These are the types of equipment that would be indispensable for a surprise attack, but also necessary to turn the attack into a larger-scale operation.</p>
<p>Nato leaders had always feared a bolt-from-the-blue attack by the Soviet Union. The advantage in numbers of the Soviets – both of personnel and equipment – could not be matched by Nato, which relied on the threat of nuclear weapons to deter any attack.</p>
<p>The Soviets – and later the Russians – viewed the treaty as undermining that superiority in numbers and availability of conventional weapons. Accusing the US of breaching the treaty, Russia suspended its participation in 2007 but kept lines of communication open with Nato. In 2015 it stopped any participation in the treaty, again citing US breaches. In its turn, the US <a href="https://www.state.gov/compliance-with-the-treaty-on-conventional-armed-forces-in-europe-condition-5-c-report-2020/">stopped actively implementing</a> the treaty in 2011.</p>
<p>So Russia’s formal withdrawal from the treaty is not perhaps as significant, on its own, as it might appear. But it does prepare the way for an increase in production and deployment of those items identified by the treaty as necessary for sudden attacks. The war in Ukraine has meant a significant increase in the production of military equipment. As Nato member states <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_211698.htm">are finding</a>, their manufacturing capacity for ammunition and weapons is well below the use and wastage involved in the Ukraine war.</p>
<p>Putin is reengaging with his view of world history which sees the fall of the Soviet Union as a “geopolitical disaster” and its reestablishment as a matter of time. Along with Russia’s withdrawal from the <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90831">Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (NTBT)</a>, it can be seen as an attempt to present Russia’s security activities in a more positive light to its allies and to wavering non-aligned nations.</p>
<p>In fact, the US never ratified the treaty and Moscow and Washington have exchanged <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90831">angry words</a>, each accusing the other of undermining the NTBT. This has helped nobody – activity in both the US and Russia has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-19/us-nuclear-test-on-day-of-kremlin-s-treaty-abdication-fuels-doubt?leadSource=uverify%20wall">escalated tensions</a> over nuclear testing.</p>
<h2>Aggressive stance</h2>
<p>Moscow’s increasingly aggressive stance will certainly add to concerns for the Baltic states and Poland. With a significant number of ethnic Russians as part of their populations, the risks of civil unrest leading to an escalation is rather high. </p>
<p>An opportunity to distract the population of Russia from the quagmire of the war in Ukraine would be useful for Putin – and the political rhetoric from Moscow might be sufficient to begin to do that. Putin presents Nato as a hostile and menacing alliance – a perspective that has been a recurring theme in Russian political discussions since the cold war and the dissolution of the Soviet Union. </p>
<p>Certainly, Nato has its eyes fixed on the <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-all-eyes-on-lithuania-as-sanctions-close-russian-land-access-to-kaliningrad-185720">Suwałki Gap</a>. This runs along the border between Poland and Lithuania and is a potential weak point, connecting Belarus (which is firmly under the sway of Moscow) with the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558318/original/file-20231108-19-y2ej8c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map of eastern Europe highlighting the Suwalki Gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad/" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558318/original/file-20231108-19-y2ej8c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558318/original/file-20231108-19-y2ej8c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558318/original/file-20231108-19-y2ej8c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558318/original/file-20231108-19-y2ej8c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558318/original/file-20231108-19-y2ej8c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558318/original/file-20231108-19-y2ej8c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558318/original/file-20231108-19-y2ej8c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Suwalki Gap: a key sliver of territory that is making Nato nervous.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/suwalki-gap-political-map-known-corridor-2175422211">Peter Hermes Furian/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-all-eyes-on-lithuania-as-sanctions-close-russian-land-access-to-kaliningrad-185720">Ukraine war: all eyes on Lithuania as sanctions close Russian land access to Kaliningrad</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A sudden assault here, against even a prepared Nato defence, could cut the links to the Baltic states quickly and present Nato with a fait accompli, blocking access to Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Nato would then have to decide on its response, risking escalation. But the Russians would need to be more competent and capable in their military adventures than they have been shown to be in Ukraine.</p>
<p>The likelihood of a Russian attack is small, but Putin likes to keep his options open. He is also an experienced propagandist and will use whatever levers he has to try and prise Nato’s members apart. A political crisis caused by elements loyal to Moscow, but plausibly deniable by Putin, in this region could provide the type of rupture in Nato’s unity that he would welcome. </p>
<p>The north Atlantic alliance is not as united in its approach to the war in Ukraine as it might be – and public attention in many member countries has dropped off as the war has dragged on. The events in Israel and Gaza have increased the distraction from the war in Ukraine and provided Russia with greater opportunities to strengthen ties to anti-western groups and countries in the Middle East.</p>
<p>Announcements such as Russia’s withdrawal from the CFE should not necessarily be a major concern – not immediately, in any case. But Putin’s activities and his goals should not be underestimated either.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217219/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kenton White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Moscow has pulled the plug on yet another safety valve preventing conflict with the west.Kenton White, Lecturer in Strategic Studies and International Relations, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2123482023-10-26T19:03:21Z2023-10-26T19:03:21ZFriday essay: the secret lives of Ian Fleming and John Le Carré – the spymasters shaped by a lack of parental love<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555978/original/file-20231026-29-w5gl2q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C5982%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">John Le Carré in a scene from The Pigeon Tunnel</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Apple TV+</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2022, writer Suleika Dawson published an intimate, refreshingly candid <a href="https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/the-secret-heart-john-le-carre-an-intimate-memoir-suleika-dawson?variant=39815110131790">first-hand account</a> of her passionate extramarital affair with David Cornwell – who worked as an intelligence agent for MI5 and MI6 in the 1950s and early 1960s, and wrote spy novels using the pseudonym John le Carré.</p>
<p>Dawson and Cornwell first crossed paths in September 1982. Dawson, who had recently graduated with a degree in English Literature and Language from the University of Oxford, had a job abridging novels for an audiobook firm in London. </p>
<p>Cornwell, whom Dawson correctly describes as “the premier fabulist of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-a-cold-war-a-historian-explains-how-rivals-us-and-soviet-union-competed-off-the-battlefield-192238">Cold War</a>”, was booked in at her firm’s recording studio to read the abridged version of his ninth novel, <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/smileys-people-9780241330913">Smiley’s People</a>, published in 1979. (An award-winning <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083480/">television adaptation</a> starring Alec Guinness appeared in 1982.) </p>
<p>Cornwell had been an internationally bestselling author since his third novel, <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-spy-who-came-in-from-the-cold-9780241330920">The Spy Who Came in from the Cold</a>, was published in 1963. He had stopped working as an intelligence officer to become a full-time writer a year later, after his diplomatic cover in West Germany (where he was stationed when the <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-politics-explainer-the-fall-of-the-berlin-wall-100812">Berlin Wall</a> was erected) <a href="https://spyscape.com/article/john-le-carre-thinker-writer-cold-war-spy">was blown</a> by MI6 double agent Kim Philby – or so he always claimed. </p>
<p>A fictional version of Philby would be hunted by George Smiley, Le Carré’s most iconic fictional spy, in his 1974 novel <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/tinker-tailor-soldier-spy-9780241658987">Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy</a>.</p>
<p>There was, Dawson remembers, “an extraordinary bond between us, which we both felt from that first lunch – which David, whose life had been a constant search for love, perhaps felt even more forcefully than I did”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555989/original/file-20231026-19-nhyptv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555989/original/file-20231026-19-nhyptv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555989/original/file-20231026-19-nhyptv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555989/original/file-20231026-19-nhyptv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555989/original/file-20231026-19-nhyptv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555989/original/file-20231026-19-nhyptv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555989/original/file-20231026-19-nhyptv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555989/original/file-20231026-19-nhyptv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alec Guinness as George Smiley in the 1982 adaptation of Smiley’s People.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BBC Images</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Messy private life’ off-limits</h2>
<p>Cornwell’s “constant search for love” is highly relevant to Adam Sisman’s <a href="https://www.allenandunwin.com/browse/book/Adam-Sisman-Secret-Life-of-John-le-Carre-9781800818231">The Secret Life of John le Carré</a> (2023), a biographical addendum of sorts to his 2015 book, <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/217665/john-le-carre-the-biography-by-adam-sisman/9780307361516">John le Carré: The Biography</a>. </p>
<p>Although Cornwell was initially enthusiastic about Sisman’s biography and agreed to work with him on it, he was wary when it came to inquiries about his “own messy private life”. It was – as Sisman soon came to discover – strictly off-limits. </p>
<p>This is something the famed documentarian Errol Morris would come up against in <a href="https://tv.apple.com/au/movie/the-pigeon-tunnel/umc.cmc.633pbtki99m7e8lc9ybbyab3">The Pigeon Tunnel</a> (2023). His recent documentary adaptation of Le Carré’s 2016 memoir, <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/294602/the-pigeon-tunnel-by-carre-john-le/9780241396377">The Pigeon Tunnel: Stories From My Life</a>, concentrates on Cornwell’s relationship with his conman father, and on his career in British intelligence and as a novelist, but is notably thin on details when it comes to certain aspects of his private life. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/9gWnuhjwNrw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Errol Morris’s documentary The Pigeon Tunnel concentrates on Cornwell/Le Carré’s relationship with his conman father and on his career.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At one particularly telling juncture late in the film, Morris asks Cornwell about the theme of “betrayal” that runs through his life and career. Cornwell’s response is worth quoting:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Well, I feel you got the last drop out of the sponge on that subject. But I’ll answer any question you wish me to answer as truthfully as I can. […] I’m not going to talk about my sex life - anymore, I trust, than you would. It seems to be an intensely private matter. My love life has been a very difficult passage, as you would imagine, but it has resolved itself wonderfully. And that’s enough on that subject.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It is a fleeting, yet significant moment in the film – reminiscent of the situation in which Sisman found himself while working on his 2015 biography. Relations between biographer and subject became increasingly strained, with Cornwell threatening to scupper the venture altogether.</p>
<p>Sisman turned to Cornwell’s eldest son, Simon, who recommended the biographer should keep a “secret annexe” of material that could be published in some form after David and his wife Jane had passed away.</p>
<p>“Now that [Cornwell] has died,” Sisman writes in his preface to The Secret Life of John Le Carré, “it is important to add this coda to the biography that he encouraged, semi-authorised, and then tried to sabotage.” </p>
<p>He writes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is not a substitute for or a condensation of my 2015 biography, but a supplement containing material that I felt obliged to omit then, as well as information that has emerged since.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The new book affords him the opportunity to paint as complete as possible a biographical portrait of Cornwell, who was born in 1931 and died in 2020, while hoping to dispel “some of the myths about David’s past” – certain of which came from Cornwell himself. </p>
<p>Sisman demonstrates, for example, that it is highly unlikely Philby blew Cornwell’s cover when he <a href="https://theconversation.com/back-in-the-ussr-my-life-as-a-spy-in-the-archives-26303">defected to the Soviet Union</a> in 1963.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/john-le-carre-authentic-spy-fiction-that-wrote-the-wrongs-of-post-war-british-intelligence-152055">John Le Carré: authentic spy fiction that wrote the wrongs of post-war British intelligence</a>
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<h2>Ian Fleming and his looming family influence</h2>
<p>Nicholas Shakespeare, who writes novels when not penning <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/355675/bruce-chatwin-by-shakespeare-nicholas/9780099289975">celebrated biographies</a>, says something similar in the prologue to <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/ian-fleming-9781787302426">Ian Fleming: The Complete Man</a>, his 800-page account of the author who created the most world’s famous fictional spy, James Bond.</p>
<p>Shakespeare thinks there “ample and legitimate reasons to go right back to the beginning; to turn the soil of [Fleming’s] personal history and revisit his legacy from a contemporary perspective”.</p>
<p>Drawing on published and unpublished materials, Shakespeare aims to correct a few assumptions about Fleming’s life – especially when it comes to his career with the Naval Intelligence Division during the second world war.</p>
<p>A child of extraordinary wealth and privilege, Fleming was born in 1908 and died in 1964. Of Scottish descent, he grew up in England and was educated at Eton - where Cornwell once taught - and Sandhurst Royal Military College.</p>
<p>His merchant banker father, Valentine Fleming, was, in Shakespeare’s account, “a paragon of whom no one spoke ill”.</p>
<p>Ian Fleming barely knew his father, a well-loved war hero who was killed in action during the first world war, and whose obituary was written by none other than Winston Churchill (which Ian framed and kept above his bed as a child).</p>
<p>“Like Churchill’s framed obituary,” Shakespeare contends, “the phantom of his dead father loomed over Ian for the remainder of his life.”</p>
<p>Shakespeare reasons the untimely death of Valentine Fleming played a decisive role in the genesis of James Bond. Specifically, he speculates that one of the reasons why Ian – who never saw front-line combat – created 007 was an unconscious desire to “join his father at the front”.</p>
<p>Ian Fleming’s relationship with his older brother, Peter, is similarly noteworthy. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Fleming_(writer)">Peter Fleming</a> was an adventurer, journalist and author. Shakespeare asserts that Ian spent his whole life trying to keep up with his much-admired brother.</p>
<p>In 1951, Peter published a bestselling spy novel, The Sixth Column, which he dedicated to his brother. It appeared mere months before the first James Bond novel, <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3758.Casino_Royale">Casino Royale</a>.</p>
<p>Ian had long harboured literary ambitions. Upon reading The Sixth Column, Shakespeare says, “Ian knew he could do better.”</p>
<p>Shakespeare quotes Ian Fleming’s American editor – Al Hart – in support. Ian, who worked as a stockbroker and a journalist (with Reuters and The Sunday Times) before finding belated fame as a novelist, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>wrote because he got tired of being Peter Fleming’s younger brother. He was determined that Peter Fleming should be known as Ian Fleming’s elder brother. And by God, he is.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For Shakespeare, where Ian’s relationship with his brother can be characterised as competitive, his relationship with his mother – Eve – should be understood in terms of control and domination. </p>
<p>Eve Sainte Croix Fleming comes in for sustained criticism in the new biography. Shakespeare, who has very little positive to say here, describes her as “imperious, melodramatic, entitled, and a narcissist who dealt acidly with dissent”. </p>
<p>In Shakespeare’s retelling, Eve’s parenting left a lot to be desired, and had a detrimental effect on Ian’s development. </p>
<p>He suggests Fleming’s fraught bond with his mother came to shape the character and problematic behavioural patterns of James Bond – especially in relation to women. (Like 007, Fleming was an incorrigible womaniser.)</p>
<h2>Infidelities ‘a necessary drug’ for Le Carré</h2>
<p>Familial relationships played an equally significant role in Cornwell’s development. He was always upfront about this. </p>
<p>He spoke and wrote extensively about the effect his father Ronnie – a notorious conman and convicted felon – had on his childhood, and how this vexed relationship shaped his behaviour in adult life. </p>
<p>Ronnie’s presence is most clearly felt in Le Carré’s transparently semi-autobiographical 1986 novel <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/a-perfect-spy-9780241322482">A Perfect Spy</a>, whose protagonist, a British intelligence officer and double agent, has a charismatic conman father. Philip Roth thought it the “best English novel since the war”.</p>
<p>Cornwell’s relationship with Ronnie is explored at length in The Pigeon Tunnel: both the memoir and Morris’s documentary adaptation.</p>
<p>“People loved Ronnie to the end of his days, even people he robbed,” Cornwell told Morris. “When he was on stage, beguiling people, he absolutely believed in what he was saying. These spasms of immense charm and persuasiveness were his moments of feeling real.”</p>
<p>His father wanted him to have a “posh education” and sent him to schools where he learned “the manners and attitudes of a class to which I did not belong”. (Set in a fictional private school, Le Carré’s 1962 novel, <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/180369/a-murder-of-quality-by-carre-john-le/9780241330883">A Murder of Quality</a>, gives us a sense of Cornwell’s feelings about the British ruling class.) This sense of not belonging, of performing a role, also contributed to him being “a little spy” from “a very early age”.</p>
<p>Cornwell’s relationship with his mother, Olive, was just as complex. Unable to cope with Ronnie’s compulsive swindling and dangerous lifestyle, David’s mother walked out on the family when he was five years old. He met her again when he was 21. “She was impenetrable emotionally,” he told Errol Morris. “I never heard her express a serious feeling.”</p>
<p>Sisman mentions Olive at the start of The Secret Life, when discussing Cornwell’s many extramarital affairs:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Why did David pursue these women with such intensity and what does it say about him? When compelled to confront this issue, he told me that the restless, self-destructive search for love was part of his nature. In his mind this went back to his childhood, to his unrequited love for his mother, who abandoned her children at an early age.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the film version of The Pigeon Tunnel, Cornwell reflects on the night his mother disappeared:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Did she come into the room where we slept and take a last look at us? […] I imagine that she did.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sisman sets out to answer his own questions. He maintains that Cornwell’s infidelities are key to a proper – or complete – appreciation of his writing. Not only do they help us understand what Cornwell wrote, but they help to explain, in Sisman’s words, “how, why and when he wrote”. </p>
<p>Sisman quotes from his private correspondence with Cornwell when making this claim: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>My infidelities produced in my life a duality & that became almost a necessary drug for my writing, a dangerous edge of some kind […] They are not therefore a “dark part” of my life, separate from the “high literary calling”, so to speak, but, alas, integral to it, & inseparable.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Dawson would agree with this assessment - appreciating as she does “how entirely fractal David’s life was, how each part was a smaller replica of the whole. The perfect multifaceted reflection of the perfect spy.” </p>
<p>“It’s terribly difficult to recruit for the secret service,” says Cornwell in the film, The Pigeon Tunnel. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>You’re looking for somebody who’s a bit bad. But at the same time loyal. There’s a type they were looking for in my day. And I fitted perfectly.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/john-le-carre-mi6-and-the-fact-and-fiction-of-british-secret-intelligence-124522">John le Carré, MI6 and the fact and fiction of British secret intelligence</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The ‘truth’ about Ian Fleming’s war work</h2>
<p>Nicholas Shakespeare touches on the topic of infidelity at various points in his book on Fleming. He also grants that Fleming’s notoriety as “a prickly, self-centred bounder” with a penchant for sexual sadism is well deserved, and tough to shake.</p>
<p>Shakespeare openly acknowledges he had initial reservations about Fleming’s character and his “undeniable shortcomings”. Selfish, cruel, snobbish – these are a few of terms that tend to get thrown around when talking about Fleming. Some of the others, like the four-letter word <a href="https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artists/lucian-freud-1120">Lucien Freud</a> used to describe Fleming, cannot be printed here.</p>
<p>Despite this, Shakespeare thinks Fleming “an unfailingly intriguing character” who is ripe for reappraisal. Working with unpublished letters and diaries, previously uninterviewed witnesses, and a series of declassified files, Shakespeare sets out to cast “Fleming and his life in a new light that leads to new conclusions about the man”.</p>
<p>Shakespeare comes to new conclusions about Fleming’s conduct during the second world war. Fleming’s war record has long been a bone of contention. In part, this is due to the fact he worked in a department that dealt with confidential matters of national security, counterintelligence and espionage.</p>
<p>Some people, as Shakespeare acknowledges, believe Fleming was nothing more than a glorified office worker, “too wedded to his comforts and smart uniform to risk going into action himself”.</p>
<p>These critics tend to “wonder with something of a sneer whether he could have done anything really useful in the war”. Cornwell, for example, had precious little time for Fleming, whom he considered a self-aggrandising fantasist. </p>
<p>Cornwell was also deeply suspicious of James Bond – <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-bond-idUKTRE67G24U20100817">he considered Fleming’s famous creation</a> “neo-fascistic and totally materialist” and less a spy than “some kind of international gangster with, as it is said, a licence to kill”.</p>
<p>Shakespeare believes otherwise: since Fleming “was never allowed to write the truth about his war work, facts about his life are hard to see clearly through the aura cast by the success of James Bond”. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556000/original/file-20231026-17-6z74r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556000/original/file-20231026-17-6z74r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556000/original/file-20231026-17-6z74r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556000/original/file-20231026-17-6z74r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556000/original/file-20231026-17-6z74r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556000/original/file-20231026-17-6z74r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556000/original/file-20231026-17-6z74r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556000/original/file-20231026-17-6z74r.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>Accordingly, Shakespeare – who is unwavering in his conviction that “a clear and reliable picture of [Fleming’s] duties and the depth and range of his knowledge and responsibilities does exist” – strives in his biography to set the historical record straight. </p>
<p>Shakespeare finds Fleming “made a noteworthy contribution to the second world war - and not only in organising covert operations in Nazi-occupied North Europe and North Africa that helped to shorten the conflict”. Fleming also worked to bring the United States into the conflict, and worked to set up and coordinate the wartime intelligence organisation that eventually turned into the CIA. </p>
<p>Shakespeare brings his discussion of Fleming’s war record to a close with the assertion: “Ian never lived at such an intense level again. He would spend the rest of his life in peacetime, trying to recapture moments of time like these.” The way he did this was, as Shakespeare puts it, “by writing the books which have become the reason we are still reading about him today”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-wilderness-of-mirrors-70-years-since-the-first-james-bond-book-spy-stories-are-still-blurring-fact-and-fiction-201373">'The wilderness of mirrors': 70 years since the first James Bond book, spy stories are still blurring fact and fiction</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Bond: ‘a post-war British fantasy’</h2>
<p>Contrary to received wisdom, the 12 action-packed spy novels Fleming wrote after the war were, in Shakespeare’s reckoning, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>grounded in reality and a truth that Ian could not reveal but had intensely experienced. He wrote what he knew. By converting his lived experience into fiction, and updating it, he released the burden of that knowledge.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555998/original/file-20231026-23-byxwrv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555998/original/file-20231026-23-byxwrv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555998/original/file-20231026-23-byxwrv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555998/original/file-20231026-23-byxwrv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555998/original/file-20231026-23-byxwrv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=980&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555998/original/file-20231026-23-byxwrv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1231&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555998/original/file-20231026-23-byxwrv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1231&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555998/original/file-20231026-23-byxwrv.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1231&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The Bond books also served specific ideological purposes. Historical context is important here. As Shakespeare puts it, Fleming’s fictions were intended “as a post-war British fantasy, as a balm for a demoralised imperial power on its uppers”. </p>
<p>The writer and columnist Ben Macintyre makes a similar point in his <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/for-your-eyes-only-9781408830642/">official history</a> of 007. “To the readers of the 1950s,” Macintyre writes, “Bond was a promise of glamour and plenty amid postwar austerity, the thrill of sexual licence in a buttoned-up society.”</p>
<p>We see evidence of this in <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3758.Casino_Royale">Casino Royale</a> (1953), the first Bond book. Here’s a description of Bond’s breakfast (his favourite meal of the day):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Bond liked to make a good breakfast. After a cold shower, he sat at the writing-table in front of the window. He looked out at the beautiful day and consumed half a pint of iced orange juice, three scrambled eggs and bacon and a double portion of coffee without sugar. He lit his first cigarette, a Balkan and Turkish mixture made for him by Morlands of Grosvenor Street, and watched the small waves lick the long seashore and the fishing fleet from Dieppe string out towards the June heat-haze followed by a paper-chase of herring-gulls.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Fleming’s novels, which tend to be set in suitably sun-drenched locations, are full of descriptions like this. Self-consciously excessive and extravagant (the line about Bond’s custom-made cigarettes is a particularly nice touch here), they gesture in the direction of a lifestyle that would have been out of reach to all bar the extremely wealthy.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-james-bond-a-misogynist-he-doesnt-have-to-be-connery-moore-or-even-craigs-vision-forever-169619">Is James Bond a misogynist? He doesn't have to be Connery, Moore or even Craig's vision forever</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Smiley: deliberately ‘breathtakingly ordinary’</h2>
<p>I want now to take that description and contrast it with two passages from Le Carré. The first comes from <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/the-spy-who-came-in-from-the-cold-9780241330920">The Spy Who Came In From The Cold</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>His flat was small and squalid, done in brown paint with photographs of Clovelly. It looked directly on to the grey backs of three stone warehouses, the windows of which were drawn, for aesthetic reasons, in creosote.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Where Fleming is expansive and sun-dappled, Le Carré is claustrophobic and drab.</p>
<p>The second passage is taken from Le Carré’s first novel, 1961’s <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/182715/call-for-the-dead-by-carre-john-le/9780241639214">Call for the Dead</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Short, fat, and of a quiet disposition, he appeared to spend a lot of money on really bad clothes, which hung about his squat frame like skin on a shrunken toad.</p>
</blockquote>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555999/original/file-20231026-32729-if7v76.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555999/original/file-20231026-32729-if7v76.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/555999/original/file-20231026-32729-if7v76.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555999/original/file-20231026-32729-if7v76.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555999/original/file-20231026-32729-if7v76.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=921&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555999/original/file-20231026-32729-if7v76.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1157&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555999/original/file-20231026-32729-if7v76.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1157&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/555999/original/file-20231026-32729-if7v76.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1157&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>This is the first physical description of Le Carré’s famous spymaster, the aforementioned George Smiley. The polar opposite of Bond in almost every conceivable way, Smiley is – as Le Carré insists on the very first page of <a href="https://www.penguin.com.au/books/call-for-the-dead-9780241639214">Call for the Dead</a> – “breathtakingly ordinary.” There is certainly nothing glamorous about him - and that is Le Carré’s point.</p>
<p>Similarly, while Bond’s MI6 is constantly saving the world from the outlandish machinations of egotistic supervillains, Smiley’s British intelligence service is vulnerable to leaks – and the threats it battles are deeply embedded in political systems and real-world conflicts. It is also – and this is something Le Carré says time and time again in his <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/series/180842-george-smiley">Smiley novels</a> – an outdated relic of Britain’s imperial era.</p>
<h2>‘Childhood is the credit balance of the writer’</h2>
<p>Shakespeare acknowledges that readers </p>
<blockquote>
<p>tend to think of John Le Carré before George Smiley. With Fleming, it is the reverse, as if Bond’s unstoppable waves of popularity have lapped back over the author, submerging him.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556001/original/file-20231026-23-wzz8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556001/original/file-20231026-23-wzz8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/556001/original/file-20231026-23-wzz8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556001/original/file-20231026-23-wzz8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556001/original/file-20231026-23-wzz8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556001/original/file-20231026-23-wzz8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1213&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556001/original/file-20231026-23-wzz8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1213&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/556001/original/file-20231026-23-wzz8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1213&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>By examining the lives of Fleming and Cornwell, and touching on some of the stark differences between their iconic literary creations, Shakespeare and Sisman provide us with a compelling framework to reevaluate the profound impact of these two authors – on the realm of spy fiction, literary history and their enduring influence on Western popular culture. </p>
<p>As we have seen, both works also speak to the role childhood experience and trauma can have on the development of character.</p>
<p>Talking to Errol Morris, Cornwell quotes <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graham_Greene">Graham Greene</a>: “Childhood is the credit balance of the writer.” He says, “It’s not a lament, it’s just a self-examination.” Later, he describes his writing process as a journey of self-discovery, “every time”. He reflects:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I have never submitted to analysis. I feel if I knew any secrets about myself I’d deprive myself of writing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Reading these excellent new biographies, it strikes me that Cornwell’s personal and professional secrets are safe with Sisman, as are Fleming’s with Shakespeare.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Howard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>John le Carré and Ian Fleming, the world’s most famous spy novelists, share experience in UK intelligence and difficult childhoods. But their heroes, George Smiley and James Bond, are very different.Alexander Howard, Senior Lecturer, Discipline of English, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2147362023-10-15T04:45:46Z2023-10-15T04:45:46ZBetween state and mosque: new book explores the turbulent history of Islamic politics in Mozambique<p><em><a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dp/2014/afr1404.pdf">Mozambique</a> is a multi-religious southern African nation with excellent relations between faiths. Relations between Muslims and the state have been good too. But the situation became more complicated <a href="https://theconversation.com/mozambiques-own-version-of-boko-haram-is-tightening-its-deadly-grip-98087">in 2017</a> when a bloody jihadist insurgency broke out in the north. Eric Morier-Genoud has published extensively on politics and religion in Mozambique. His latest book, <a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/towards-jihad/">Towards Jihad? Muslims and Politics in Postcolonial Mozambique</a>, looks at the historical relationship between Islam and politics in the country. He fielded some questions from The Conversation Africa.</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>When was Islam introduced to Mozambique?</h2>
<p>Islam has a very old presence in Mozambique. It is estimated to have arrived within the first century of the start of the faith, with Arab, Ottoman and Persian traders. It settled at once during and after the 8th century among new Swahili networks, cultures and societies that developed on the east African coast between Somalia and what is today Mozambique. </p>
<p>Expansion of the Islamic faith inland was slow and only made significant progress in the 19th and 20th centuries. This was the time when European colonial powers occupied Africa, building new infrastructure such as roads and railways that helped the spread of different faiths. </p>
<p>At <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Mozambique/Mozambique-under-the-New-State-regime">independence in 1975</a>, Muslims represented 15% of the population of Mozambique. The latest census indicates it stood at 19% <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Mozambique/Religion">in 2017</a>. Today Muslims live mostly on the coast and in the north of the country. A majority of the population of Niassa and Cabo Delgado provinces are Muslim, as are 40% of the population of Nampula province.</p>
<h2>What’s been the political experience of Muslims since independence?</h2>
<p>A majority of Muslims, like all other religious people in the country, were in favour of independence. But when Frelimo, the liberation movement, came to power at independence in 1975, its policy was socialist-oriented and the government turned against religion. Frelimo saw faith as a superstition and an impediment to its programme. It closed churches near state and educational institutions, restricted religious practice, and even ran atheist campaigns between 1978 and 1980. </p>
<p>In the 1980s, the Frelimo party-state shifted towards tolerance, meaning a policy of minor religious restrictions and a strict separation between state and church/mosque. Frelimo party members were prohibited from being members of a religious institution. Faith institutions were ordered to focus on religion only. </p>
<p>In the 1990s, after the end of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/question/How-did-the-Cold-War-end">Cold War</a> and the official abandonment of socialism, the Frelimo government moved towards a freer religious regime. </p>
<p>Nevertheless, the post-socialist <a href="https://www.portaldogoverno.gov.mz/por/Governo/Legislacao/Constituicao-da-Republica-de-Mocambique">1990 constitution</a> did not allow political parties based on regionalism, ethnicity or religion. So there’s a limit to what Muslims can do politically for their faith.</p>
<p>A law to recognise Muslim religious holidays in the 1990s was blocked by the Supreme Court in the name of secularism. Muslims argued this was unfair since Christmas is an official holiday, although called <a href="https://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/?country=126">“family day”</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly in the 2000s Muslim politicians (organised in a formal cross-party lobby in parliament) struggled to influence a new law to define the family, inheritance rights and women’s rights. </p>
<p>Consequently, many Islamic organisations and politicians have moved away from politics in the last two decades, to focus on education, social works and proselytism.</p>
<h2>What led to the current insurgency?</h2>
<p>There is much debate about the causes of the jihadi insurgency in northern Mozambique. <a href="https://www.iese.ac.mz/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/cadernos_17.pdf">Researchers</a> have identified poverty, youth marginalisation, ethnicity and religion as push factors. </p>
<p>The pull factor is a jihadi project of more justice and equality through sharia law and a caliphate. It offers an alternative plan for state and society, and a path to it through violence. The insurgency developed regionally (in connection with Tanzanian jihadis) and the insurgents connected formally to the Islamic State, the <a href="https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2022/08/11/how-al-qaeda-and-islamic-state-are-digging-into-africa">international terrorist group</a>, in early 2018. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mozambican-terror-group-is-strikingly-similar-to-nigerias-deadly-boko-haram-201039">Mozambican terror group is strikingly similar to Nigeria's deadly Boko Haram</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>My book shows that the overwhelming majority of Muslims in Mozambique do not want full sharia law and a caliphate. Nor do they accept the violence used to achieve these objectives. </p>
<p>The insurgents have nevertheless settled militarily in the extreme north, where they have established bases in deep forests and rely on Islamic State for some technical support and public relations.</p>
<h2>What support, if any, do the insurgents enjoy in Mozambique?</h2>
<p>Insurgents enjoy hardly any support nationally. Locally, they draw some support from networks they established, from long-held local grievances, and from mistakes the state, the army and the police have made since the start of the conflict. </p>
<p>Other dynamics have come into play, including displacement, violence, uncertainty and fear. Today, the “Al-Shabaab” insurgents (as they are known in Mozambique) operate in a territory of about 30,000 square kilometres which represents less than half of the province of Cabo Delgado (one of the 11 provinces of Mozambique). </p>
<p>This is a very limited territory, but one where crucial economic projects are located. Among others, private investment is unfolding for the production of onshore and offshore LNG gas, and companies have developed graphite projects that have turned Mozambique into the second largest world producer of this mineral. </p>
<p>The insurgents have hardly expanded since they began their armed insurrection in October 2017. In 2021 they carried out attacks in Niassa and Nampula, but they withdrew rapidly. It is not clear whether they chose not to expand, or whether the government and its <a href="https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/06/regional-security-support-vital-first-step-peace-mozambique">international allies</a> have been effective in containing them. Still, the armed conflict continues today, six years on.</p>
<h2>How can the peace be restored?</h2>
<p>This is a topic of debate. The government has been active mostly militarily, with an international intervention since 2021. It wants to root out those it calls international “terrorists”. </p>
<p>Many commentators and partners of Mozambique believe that to resolve the conflict, one also needs to address the root causes: poverty, youth marginalisation and ethnicity. Donors and the Mozambican government have started social and economic programmes focusing on youth and on economic development in the north of Mozambique. Even private companies such as TotalEnergie want to engage in such programmes.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/catalogue-of-failures-behind-growing-humanitarian-crisis-in-northern-mozambique-149343">Catalogue of failures behind growing humanitarian crisis in northern Mozambique</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>An element which has not been touched upon yet relates to the pull factors. There are several possibilities. One would be for the state and civil society to develop a reflection and consultation about the future of the country and about inclusion and representation. It could look at social, economic, political, historical, cultural, and religious elements, aiming to establish a medium-term “agenda for the nation”.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214736/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Morier-Genoud does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The overwhelming majority of Muslims in Mozambique reject the violence of the insurgents and their quest for a caliphate.Eric Morier-Genoud, Reader in African history, Queen's University BelfastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004112023-10-05T12:34:13Z2023-10-05T12:34:13ZThe splendid life of Jimmy Carter – 5 essential reads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511714/original/file-20230222-26-wdgm71.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=129%2C54%2C2027%2C1377&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cuban President Fidel Castro watches former U.S. President Jimmy Carter throw a baseball on May 14, 2002, in Havana, Cuba.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cuban-president-fidel-castro-watches-former-us-president-news-photo/73894798?phrase=jimmy%20carter%20fidel%20castro&adppopup=true">Sven Creutzmann/Mambo Photography/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In <em>Mark 8:34-38</em> a question is asked: “For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?”</p>
<p>Jimmy Carter never lost his soul. </p>
<p>A person who served others, Jimmy Carter did more to advance the cause of human rights than any U.S. president in American history. That tireless commitment “to advance democracy and human rights” was noted by the Nobel Committee when it honored Carter with its <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2002/summary/">Peace Prize</a> in 2002.</p>
<p>From establishing the nonprofit <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/">Carter Center</a> to working for <a href="https://www.habitat.org/volunteer/build-events/carter-work-project">Habitat for Humanity</a>, Carter never lost his moral compass in his public policies. </p>
<p>Over the years, The Conversation U.S. has published numerous stories exploring the legacy of the nation’s 39th president – and his blessed life after leaving the world of American politics. Here are selections from those articles. </p>
<h2>1. A preacher at heart</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.asbury.edu/about/directory/david-swartz/">As a scholar</a> of American religious history, Asbury University Professor David Swartz believes that a speech Carter gave on July 15, 1979, was the most theologically profound speech by an American president since <a href="https://www.nps.gov/linc/learn/historyculture/lincoln-second-inaugural.htm">Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address</a>, on March 4, 1865.</p>
<p>Carter’s nationally televised sermon was watched by 65 million Americans as he “intoned an evangelical-sounding lament about a crisis of the American spirit,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/revisiting-jimmy-carters-truth-telling-sermon-to-americans-97241">Swartz wrote</a>. </p>
<p>“All the legislation in the world,” Carter proclaimed during the speech, “can’t fix what’s wrong with America.”</p>
<p>What was wrong, Carter believed, was self-indulgence and consumption. </p>
<p>“Human identity is no longer defined by what one does but by what one owns,” Carter preached. But “owning things and consuming things does not satisfy our longing for meaning.”</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/revisiting-jimmy-carters-truth-telling-sermon-to-americans-97241">Revisiting Jimmy Carter's truth-telling sermon to Americans</a>
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</p>
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<h2>2. Tough-minded policies on human rights</h2>
<p>Though Carter was considered a weak leader after <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/11/04/the-iranian-hostage-crisis-and-its-effect-on-american-politics/">Iranian religious militants</a> seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979, his overseas policies were far more effective than critics have claimed, <a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carters-lasting-cold-war-legacy-human-rights-focus-helped-dismantle-the-soviet-union-113994">wrote</a> Gonzaga University historian <a href="https://www.gonzaga.edu/college-of-arts-sciences/faculty-listing/detail/donnelly">Robert C. Donnelly</a>, especially when it came to the former Soviet Union.</p>
<p>Shortly after the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/08/the-soviet-war-in-afghanistan-1979-1989/100786/">Soviet invasion of Afghanistan</a> in 1979, for instance, Carter imposed an embargo on <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/08/16/639149657/farmers-caught-up-in-u-s-trade-war-s-remember-80-s-grain-embargo">U.S. grain sales</a> that targeted the Soviet Union’s dependence on imported wheat and corn to feed its population. </p>
<p>To further punish the Soviets, Carter persuaded the U.S. Olympic Committee to refrain from competing in the upcoming Moscow Olympics while the Soviets repressed their own people and occupied Afghanistan.</p>
<p>Among Carter’s critics, none was harsher than Ronald Reagan. But in 1986, after beating Carter for the White House, even he had to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1986/04/06/us/reagan-acknowledges-carter-s-military-buildup.html">acknowledge Carter’s foresight</a> in modernizing the nation’s military forces, a measure that further increased economic and diplomatic pressure on the Soviets. </p>
<p>“Reagan admitted that he felt very bad for misstating Carter’s policies and record on defense,” Donnelly wrote. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carters-lasting-cold-war-legacy-human-rights-focus-helped-dismantle-the-soviet-union-113994">Jimmy Carter's lasting Cold War legacy: Human rights focus helped dismantle the Soviet Union</a>
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</p>
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<h2>3. Carter’s unexpected liberal foe</h2>
<p>Reagan’s win over Carter in the 1980 U.S. presidential race was due in part to Carter’s bitter race during the Democratic primary against an heir to one of America’s great political families – Ted Kennedy. </p>
<p>Kennedy’s decision to run against Carter was “something of a shock to Carter,” <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-lion-of-the-senate-roared-like-a-mouse-39826">wrote</a> <a href="https://www.bu.edu/cgs/profile/thomas-whalen/">Thomas J. Whalen</a>, a Boston University associate professor of social science. </p>
<p>In 1979, Kennedy had pledged to support Carter’s reelection bid but later succumbed to pressure in liberal Democratic circles to launch his own presidential bid and fulfill his family’s destiny. </p>
<p>In addition, Whalen wrote, Kennedy “harbored deep reservations about Carter’s leadership, especially in the wake of a faltering domestic economy, high inflation and the seizure of the American Embassy in Iran by radical Muslim students.”</p>
<p>In response, Carter vowed to “whip (Kennedy’s) ass.” </p>
<p>And did. </p>
<p>But that win over Kennedy came at a high cost. </p>
<p>“Having expended so much political and financial capital fending off Kennedy’s challenge,” Whalen wrote, “he was easy pickings for Reagan in that fall’s general election.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-the-lion-of-the-senate-roared-like-a-mouse-39826">When the Lion of the Senate roared like a mouse</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>4. A quiet fight against a deadly disease</h2>
<p>Guinea worm is a painful parasitic disease that is contracted when people consume water from stagnant sources contaminated with the worm’s larvae. </p>
<p>Clemson University Professor Kimberly Paul has <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=yb246-8AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">worked as a parasitologist</a> for over two decades. </p>
<p>"I know the suffering that parasitic diseases like Guinea worm infections inflict on humanity, especially on the world’s most vulnerable and poor communities,” she <a href="https://theconversation.com/guinea-worm-a-nasty-parasite-is-nearly-eradicated-but-the-push-for-zero-cases-will-require-patience-199156">wrote</a>.</p>
<p>In 1986, it infected an estimated 3.5 million people per year in 21 countries in Africa and Asia. </p>
<p>Since then, that number has been reduced by more than 99.99% to 13 provisional cases in 2022, in large part because of Carter and his efforts to eradicate the disease. Those efforts included teaching people to filter all drinking water.</p>
<p>Over time, Carter’s efforts proved tremendously successful. On Jan. 24, 2023, The Carter Center, the nonprofit founded by the former U.S. president, <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/2023/2022-guinea-worm-worldwide-cases-announcement.html">announced</a> that “Guinea worm is poised to become the second human disease in history to be eradicated.”</p>
<p>The first was smallpox. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/guinea-worm-a-nasty-parasite-is-nearly-eradicated-but-the-push-for-zero-cases-will-require-patience-199156">Guinea worm: A nasty parasite is nearly eradicated, but the push for zero cases will require patience</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>5. Carter’s brave step in Cuba</h2>
<p>In 2002, long after his departure from the White House in 1981, Carter became the the first U.S. president to visit Cuba since the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/post-revolution-cuba/">1959 Cuban Revolution</a>. Carter had accepted the invitation of then President Fidel Castro.</p>
<p><a href="https://chrd.gsu.edu/profile/jennifer-mccoy-2-4/">Jennifer Lynn McCoy</a>, now at Georgia State University, was director of <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/peace/americas/index.html">The Carter Center’s Americas Program</a> at the time and accompanied Carter on that trip, on which he <a href="https://www.cartercenter.org/news/documents/doc517.html">gave a speech in Spanish</a> that called on Castro to lift restrictions on free speech and assembly, among other constitutional reforms.</p>
<p>Castro was unmoved by the speech but instead invited Carter <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/cuba-and-the-united-states-play-beisbol-diplomacy/">to watch a Cuban all-star baseball game</a>. </p>
<p>At the game, McCoy <a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carter-in-cuba-46109">wrote</a>, “Castro asked Carter for a favor” – to walk to the pitcher’s mound without his security detail to show how much confidence he had in the Cuban people.</p>
<p>Over the objections of his Secret Service agents, Carter obliged and walked to the mound with Castro and threw out the first pitch.</p>
<p>Carter’s move was a symbol of what normal relations could look like between the two nations – and of Carter’s unwavering faith. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/jimmy-carter-in-cuba-46109">Jimmy Carter in Cuba</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives</em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200411/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Beloved in his hometown of Plains, Georgia, Jimmy Carter became the 39th US president and used his office to make human rights a priority throughout the world.Howard Manly, Race + Equity Editor, The Conversation USLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2118562023-08-22T12:26:51Z2023-08-22T12:26:51ZFirst Republican debate set to kick off without Trump – but with the potential to direct the GOP’s foreign policy stance<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544022/original/file-20230822-17-xf9lph.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=37%2C0%2C8206%2C5487&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">GOP candidates will likely debate whether the US should continue to pour support into Ukraine's effort to defeat Russia.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ukrainian-armored-vehicles-maneuver-and-fire-their-30mm-news-photo/1485528240?adppopup=true">Scott Peterson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When Republican presidential hopefuls take the stage in Milwaukee on Aug. 23, 2023, for the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_debates,_2024">first debate of the 2024 campaign season</a>, attention will center on how the candidates position themselves <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/08/20/1194905052/republican-presidential-candidates-avoid-speaking-on-trump-at-a-party-conference">vis-à-vis former President Donald Trump</a> and his four criminal indictments. </p>
<p>What candidates say about foreign policy is another critical issue. </p>
<p>Republican leaders are sharply divided over how the United States should position itself in the world. While some <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/what-is-a-maga-republican/">Trump supporters</a> are pressing for the U.S. to pull back from world affairs, more traditional Republicans are calling for robust international engagement.</p>
<p>Ever since the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s, most Republican leaders have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/28/politics/gop-foreign-policy-debate-2024/index.html">supported an active U.S.</a> role in the world. This <a href="https://encyclopedia.pub/entry/30892">internationalist approach</a> was first fueled by Eisenhower’s view that the U.S. needed strong military and diplomatic alliances during the Cold War. </p>
<p>In my own <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=W1MuqgYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">research on U.S. foreign policy</a>, I have found that most Republican politicians continued to support international engagement after the Cold War ended in 1991. </p>
<p>From former Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush to current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, the prevailing <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hard-Line-Republican-Foreign-Policy/dp/0691141827">GOP view</a> has been that membership in military alliances like NATO, a strong U.S. military presence overseas and active American diplomacy make the U.S. safer. </p>
<p>But traditional Republican positions on foreign policy are now in flux. Trump’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-foreign-policy-is-still-america-first-what-does-that-mean-exactly-144841">“America First”</a> vision, which prioritizes American exceptionalism and isolation, challenges traditional Republican internationalism. The Republican primary campaign will help determine the GOP’s foreign policy platform and course. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dwight Eisenhower is one of two men shown in an open-top car in a black and white photo. He waves his hat in the air at a crowd of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543781/original/file-20230821-28-6lxefy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Dwight Eisenhower, left, a Republican, championed the idea that the U.S. should remain strongly engaged in the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-eisenhower-waves-to-well-wishers-sitting-news-photo/517833370?adppopup=true">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Trump’s split from the GOP</h2>
<p>Trump has pursued an <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-foreign-policy-is-still-america-first-what-does-that-mean-exactly-144841">inward-looking</a> approach to the world, questioning the value of alliances and calling on other countries to take care of security problems themselves. </p>
<p>As president, he pulled out of several <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/01/politics/nuclear-treaty-trump/index.html">international treaties</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/19/us/politics/trump-israel-palestinians-human-rights.html">councils that are part of the United Nations</a>. He toyed with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html">exiting NATO</a> and tried to withdraw all U.S. troops <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2022/10/13/trump-ordered-rapid-withdrawal-from-afghanistan-after-election-loss/">from Afghanistan</a>.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Room-Where-It-Happened/John-Bolton/9781982148034">senior advisers</a> and Republican <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trump-s-foreign-policy-faces-growing-dissent-congress-n965641">Congress members</a> pushed back on these plans.</p>
<p>Today, as the U.S. actively supports Ukraine with arms and supplies, Trump advocates for a neutral U.S. stance on the war between Russia and Ukraine. He has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/politics/ukraine-russia-putin-trump-town-hall/index.html">promised to resolve</a> the conflict within “24 hours” by talking with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.</p>
<p>Although Trump has been the dominant figure among Republicans for seven years, his brand of isolationism has been slow <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/05/27/trump-gop-foreign-policy-polling-490768">to catch on</a> with other Republicans. </p>
<p>Trump, for example, proposed in each year of his presidency to slash the State Department’s budget by about one-third. Republicans in Congress worked with Democrats to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3393170">reject these proposals</a> every time. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923">Trump also called</a> Putin a “genius” following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Congress then passed a series of laws in 2022 – with strong <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3781964-final-funding-bill-includes-45b-for-ukraine/">support from Republicans</a> – that imposed sanctions on Russia and provided Ukraine with large amounts of foreign aid. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Tim Scott is seen, partially obscured by a blue curtain, sitting in a beige chair on a stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543784/original/file-20230821-15-djqmdg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Senator Tim Scott qualified to appear at the debate on Aug. 23, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-u-s-sen-tim-scott-speaks-news-photo/1608744302?adppopup=true">Megan Varner/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Republicans distancing themselves from Trump</h2>
<p>Nine <a href="https://www.wisn.com/article/milwaukee-first-republican-presidential-debate/44838820#">Republican candidates have qualified</a> for the Aug. 23 presidential debate, and eight of them – all but Trump – are likely to be on the debate stage. Trump has said that he <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-wont-take-part-republican-debates-2023-08-21/">will not participate</a> in the debates.</p>
<p>While the top GOP presidential candidates are largely united in favoring a tough stance toward China, they differ sharply on Ukraine. </p>
<p>Several of the candidates, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.S. Ambassador to the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/07/11/2024-presidential-candidates-on-ukraine/70325435007/">United Nations Nikki Haley</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/07/11/2024-presidential-candidates-on-ukraine/70325435007/">Senator Tim Scott</a> and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/jun/09/where-do-republican-presidential-candidates-stand/">advocate strong U.S. support</a> for Ukraine. </p>
<p>But some other high-profile candidates, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, have called for scaling back U.S. involvement in the war, arguing that America’s involvement is <a href="https://www.politifact.com/article/2023/jun/09/where-do-republican-presidential-candidates-stand/">a distraction</a> from more important problems. </p>
<p>There are also signs that overall Republican support for Ukraine is slipping.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html">recent polls suggest</a> that most Republican voters oppose giving Ukraine additional military aid, on top of the more than US$46 billion that the U.S. <a href="https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts?gclid=Cj0KCQjwrfymBhCTARIsADXTabljIE1qo4x7czQDkgXX8KFCPkk4knxAfniFbEaBQaICm9O8mFGYkC0aAqMjEALw_wcB">has already given</a>. </p>
<p>This flagging support for Ukraine aid may reflect the fact that the war continues unabated, without a clear sign of peace talks ahead. Ukraine, meanwhile, has only taken back a small portion of its territory from Russia during its current counteroffensive, leading some Ukraine supporters to <a href="https://www.politico.com/newsletters/huddle/2023/08/17/ukraines-top-freedom-caucus-ally-gets-cold-feet-00111608">question whether U.S. military aid</a> is effective enough to merit its high cost. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley is seen sitting on a stage and speaking, as seen from multiple television screens in a dark roo." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543782/original/file-20230821-31965-5w6nio.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Presidential nominee Nikki Haley is one of the Republican politicians who has spoken out in favor of continued U.S. support for Ukraine.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-u-s-presidential-candidate-and-former-u-s-news-photo/1608484593?adppopup=true">Megan Varner/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>The topic is: Ukraine</h2>
<p>When foreign policy comes up in Milwaukee or at future Republican primary debates, it will be telling whether candidates say they still strongly back U.S. efforts to help Ukraine, or not. </p>
<p>If some of them hold firm on their support, it will be a sign that the Republican debate over foreign policy remains alive. </p>
<p>But if they change their position, this may be a sign that Trump’s hold over the Republican Party is spreading to a policy area that he previously did not strongly influence. It would also suggest that the MAGA – Make America Great Again – movement has been effective in propagating Trump’s policy views, even while he is not in office. </p>
<p>Beyond the war in Ukraine, America’s global role is at stake this election season. Although the country has acted on its principles inconsistently and highly imperfectly, the U.S. – through Democratic and Republican administrations – over the past eight decades helped to <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/220215/the-world-america-made-by-robert-kagan/">foster a more peaceful, prosperous</a> and democratic world. </p>
<p>In the meantime, I think that Trump’s Republican rivals have an opportunity to make the case for preserving and strengthening the international alliances and partnerships that <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300271010/a-world-safe-for-democracy/">help keep the U.S.</a> safe. If they make this case effectively, the GOP debate over foreign policy will be primed to continue well beyond 2024.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211856/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordan Tama does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While a few Republican politicians have aligned with former President Donald Trump’s isolationist foreign policy position, most candidates continue to push for the traditional stance of engagement.Jordan Tama, Provost Associate Professor of International Relations, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111802023-08-09T19:50:09Z2023-08-09T19:50:09ZFrom Oppenheimer to Milton Friedman: how the Cold War battle of economic ideas shaped our world<p>Is Oppenheimer a movie for our time, reminding us of the tensions, dangers and conflicts of the old Cold War while a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/27/new-cold-war-nato-summit-united-states-russia-ukraine-china/">new one</a> threatens to break out? </p>
<p>The film certainly chimes with today’s big power conflicts (the US and China), renewed concern about nuclear weapons (Russia’s threats over Ukraine), and current ideological tensions between democratic and autocratic systems.</p>
<p>But the Cold War did not just rest on the threat of the bomb. Behind the scientists and generals were many other players, among them the economists, who clashed just as vigorously in their views about how to run postwar economies. </p>
<p>Without their allocation systems, funding mechanisms, technological advances, economic mapping and fiscal policies, neither the big powers nor the minor players could have afforded their defence expenditures or operated their economies. </p>
<p>One of J. Robert Oppenheimer’s colleagues, genius Hungarian mathematician <a href="https://www.atomicarchive.com/resources/biographies/vonNeumann.html">John von Neumann</a>, not only worked on the Nagasaki bomb at Los Alamos, but also turned his mind to economics. He developed game theory for economists – which the <a href="https://www.rand.org/about.html">RAND Corporation</a> used to test first-strike nuclear attacks against second-phase reprisals. </p>
<p>Von Neumann also developed the computer architecture on the <a href="https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/edvac">EDVAC machine</a> that allowed simulations of these nuclear and economic “games”. He went on to build the famous expanding economy model that showed the possibilities of dynamic growth through investment.</p>
<h2>Spies and ideologies</h2>
<p>The US had a huge financial advantage in this game, but it did not have everything its own way. Von Neumann’s nemesis was a Russian prodigy named <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1975/kantorovich/facts/">Leonid Kantorovich</a>. He survived the siege of Leningrad and invented linear programming to help Soviet factories build wartime planes more efficiently. </p>
<p>When he proposed extending these techniques to the whole planned Soviet economy, he was knocked back by the Marxist ideologues because he used prices to indicate scarcity. Kantorovich escaped incarceration and execution, unlike some of his colleagues. But he found himself assigned to the <a href="https://www.mpiwg-berlin.mpg.de/research/projects/DeptII_Gordin_AtomicMonopoly">ENORMOZ</a> project, the desperate Soviet race to build their own atomic bomb. </p>
<p>Kantorovich was helped in this contest by information leaked by Soviet spy <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/profile/klaus-fuchs/">Klaus Fuchs</a> from von Neumann’s laboratory at Los Alamos. Such <a href="https://www.osti.gov/opennet/manhattan-project-history/Events/1942-1945/espionage.htm">espionage was endemic</a> in the period. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-soviets-stole-nuclear-secrets-and-targeted-oppenheimer-the-father-of-the-atomic-bomb-204885">How the Soviets stole nuclear secrets and targeted Oppenheimer, the 'father of the atomic bomb'</a>
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<p>US Treasury Assistant Secretary Harry Dexter White, a principal architect of the 1944 <a href="https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/bretton-woods-created">Bretton Woods</a> agreements (which established the IMF and the World Bank), was feeding US secrets to the Soviets. More than 20 of his New Deal colleagues in the US administration belonged to Soviet spy rings. </p>
<p>In economics as well as the military, there were defining ideological differences: those like Austrian economist <a href="https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/friedrich-hayek/">Friedrich Hayek</a> who saw market allocation and price signals as the only way to allocate resources efficiently in a modern economy; and those like Polish Marxist economist <a href="https://www.hetwebsite.net/het/profiles/lange.htm">Oskar Lange</a>, who argued that planned socialist economies could also be efficient – at least theoretically – by using frequent data on shortages and gluts. </p>
<p>The Soviet Union used this latter system tolerably well to meet the military needs of the second world war. But it failed when faced with the more sophisticated civilian demands later in the Cold War.</p>
<h2>Academic warfare</h2>
<p>Such arguments were fought out on the Washington beltway and in the Kremlin. But some of the most brutal arguments took place in the hallowed halls of academia.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="http://www.hetwebsite.net/het/profiles/robinson.htm">Joan Robinson</a>, the brilliant yet erratic upper-class Cambridge economist, tried to rewrite Marxian economics but ended up with something closer to dynamic Keynesianism – an interpretation of how John Maynard Keynes’ 1935 <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/the-general-theory-of-employment-money-and-interest/">General Theory of Employment, Money and Interest</a> might be extended to lead to growth.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/john-maynard-keynes-unusually-for-an-economist-he-did-not-think-people-were-very-rational-159357">John Maynard Keynes: unusually for an economist, he did not think people were very rational</a>
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<p>And for the next 30 years she argued this with <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1970/samuelson/biographical/">Paul Samuelson</a> of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, himself from a tough steel town, about whether the reinvestment of profits or the surplus value of labour was the key to dynamic growth.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541612/original/file-20230808-25-fh75un.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541612/original/file-20230808-25-fh75un.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541612/original/file-20230808-25-fh75un.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541612/original/file-20230808-25-fh75un.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541612/original/file-20230808-25-fh75un.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=946&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541612/original/file-20230808-25-fh75un.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1188&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541612/original/file-20230808-25-fh75un.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1188&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541612/original/file-20230808-25-fh75un.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1188&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Oxford University Press</span></span>
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<p>Robinson, Samuelson and other economists are profiled in my <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/economists-in-the-cold-war-9780192887399?cc=nz&lang=en&">new book</a>: Economists in the Cold War: How a Handful of Economists Fought the Battle of Ideas. Through their eyes we see the war of economic ideologies, the competing social objectives, the fight over allocation mechanisms and the different views on what drives an economy. </p>
<p>This was binary economics, though there were some attempts at a middle way, such as the “social market economy” promoted in the late 1940s by the German economic minister and cigar-smoking technocrat <a href="https://www.ludwig-erhard-zentrum.de/en/ludwig-erhard">Ludwig Erhar</a>.</p>
<p>After several decades of disagreement, the economic battlegrounds seemed set. Centrally planned economies were lagging, but by 1970 new computing power (partly the work of von Neumann and Kantorovich) seemed to offer them new opportunities.</p>
<p>Fascinated by the possibility of computers helping direct an economy, Oscar Lange wrote just before his death: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>So what’s the trouble? Let us put the simultaneous equations on an electronic computer and we shall obtain the solution in less than a second.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Computers and coups</h2>
<p>The next round of this battle would play out not in Europe, but in Chile, where socialist president Salvador Allende employed British management consultant <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/22/stafford-beer-chile-allende-technology-cybernetics">Stafford Beer</a> to design a new tool for central planning. </p>
<p>In Santiago he built a futuristic control centre: a ring of armchairs with controls, monitors and a software system named <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/the-chilean-wide-web/">Cybersyn</a>. Allende had nationalised 500 businesses and he linked them up to the control centre by fax machine (ironically, using the wired network of the CIA-influenced ITT company). </p>
<p>Each day, the controllers would fax orders to the factories and receive information on shortages and gluts. Could a computer-based allocation system provide a workable alternative to markets?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-50-years-ago-milton-friedman-told-us-greed-was-good-he-was-half-right-146294">Vital Signs: 50 years ago Milton Friedman told us greed was good. He was half right</a>
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<p>We will never know, because on September 11 1973 General <a href="https://theconversation.com/world-politics-explainer-pinochets-chile-100659">Augusto Pinochet</a> mounted a military coup, bombed the presidential palace, assassinated Allende and sent a contingent of soldiers with fixed bayonets to ritualistically stab the monitors in the control room. </p>
<p>Pinochet established his own cabinet, heavily populated with “Los Chicago Boys”, the economics students trained at the University of Chicago on Ford and Rockefeller Foundation schemes. </p>
<p>One of them, <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/1976/friedman/biographical/">Milton Friedman</a>, later visited Chile to advise the dictator Pinochet on the economy. When criticised, he replied: </p>
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<p>I do not consider it as evil for an economist to render technical economic advice to the Chilean government, any more than I would regard it as evil for a physician to give technical medical advice to the Chilean government to help in a medical plague.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But it was not all so divisive. In 1954, the left-wing Oppenheimer was pulled before the Atomic Energy Commission in a secret hearing to testify on charges of having communist sympathies. The right-wing von Neumann was the first to organise a group of witnesses for the defence, despite completely disagreeing with Oppenheimer’s politics.</p>
<p>Despite all the geopolitical tensions, economists today can at least argue in a far less hostile environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alan Bollard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Cold War was an economic standoff as well as an atomic one. The author of a new book describes the minds behind the great ideological battles on that 20th-century front line.Alan Bollard, Professor of Economics, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105072023-08-06T08:47:35Z2023-08-06T08:47:35ZAn expanded BRICS could reset world politics but picking new members isn’t straightforward<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540476/original/file-20230801-18384-y0dg77.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C127%2C2813%2C1757&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Cyril Ramaphosa will host the 15th BRICS Summit in Johannesburg.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Government Communication and Information System</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Eager to <a href="https://lmc.icds.ee/lennart-meri-lecture-by-fiona-hill/">escape perceived western domination</a>, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/more-countries-want-to-join-brics-says-south-africa-/7190526.html#:%7E:text=Argentina%2C%20Iran%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%20and,nations%20have%20in%20the%20organization.">several countries</a> – mostly in the global south – are looking to join the <a href="https://brics2023.gov.za/#">Brics</a> bloc. The five-country bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is also looking to grow its global partnerships. </p>
<p>What <a href="https://www.gov.za/events/fifth-brics-summit-general-background">began in 2001</a> as an acronym for four of the fastest growing states, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), is projected to account for 45% of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms by 2030. It has evolved into a political formation as well.</p>
<p>Crucial to this was these countries’ decision to form their own club <a href="http://infobrics.org/page/history-of-brics/">in 2009</a>, instead of joining an expanded G7 as envisioned by former Goldman Sachs CEO <a href="https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/archive/building-better.html">Jim O’Neill</a>, who coined the term “Bric”. <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-97397-1">Internal cohesion</a> on key issues has emerged and continues to be refined, despite challenges.</p>
<p>South Africa joined the group after a Chinese-initiated invitation <a href="https://www.gov.za/events/fifth-brics-summit-general-background">in 2010</a>; a boost for then president Jacob Zuma’s administration, which was eager to pivot further to the east. The bloc also gained by having a key African player and regional leader. </p>
<p>Ever since, the grouping has taken on a more pointedly political tone, particularly on the need to <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/10th-brics-summit-johannesburg-declaration-27-jul-2018-0000#:%7E:text=We%20recommit%20our%20support%20for,democracy%20and%20the%20rule%20of">reform global institutions</a>, in addition to its original economic raison d’etre.</p>
<p>The possibility of its enlargement has dominated headlines in the run up to its 15th summit in Johannesburg <a href="https://brics2023.gov.za/about-the-summit/">on 22-24 August</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-two-elephants-fight-how-the-global-south-uses-non-alignment-to-avoid-great-power-rivalries-199418">When two elephants fight: how the global south uses non-alignment to avoid great power rivalries</a>
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<p>We are political scientists whose <a href="https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-political-economy-of-intra-brics-cooperation-siphamandla-zondi/1140951138">research interests</a> include <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-62765-2">changes</a> to the global order and emerging alternative centres of power. In our view, it won’t be easy to expand the bloc. That’s because the group is still focused on harmonising its vision, and the potential new members do not readily make the cut. </p>
<p>Some may even bring destabilising dynamics for the current composition of the formation. This matters because it tells us that the envisioned change in the global order is likely to be much slower. Simply put, while some states are opposed to western <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664.html">hegemony</a>, they do not yet agree among themselves on what the new alternative should be. </p>
<h2>Evolution of BRICS</h2>
<p>BRICS’ overtly political character <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-62765-2_1">partially draws</a> on a long history of non-alignment as far back as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Bandung-Conference">Bandung Conference of 1955</a>. It was attended mostly by recently decolonised states and independence movements intent on asserting themselves against Cold War superpowers – the Soviet Union and the United States. </p>
<p>BRICS has come to be viewed as <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/13540661231183352">challenging the counter hegemony</a> of the US and its allies, seen as meddling in the internal affairs of other states. </p>
<p>Reuters estimates that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/more-than-40-nations-interested-joining-brics-south-africa-2023-07-20/#:%7E:text=South%20African%20officials%20want%20BRICS,Kazakhstan%20have%20all%20expressed%20interest.">more than 40 states</a> are aspiring to join BRICS. South African diplomat Anil Sooklal says 13 had <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/05/28/how-brics-became-a-real-club-and-why-others-want-in/5caecc7e-fdb7-11ed-9eb0-6c94dcb16fcf_story.html">formally applied</a> by May 2023.</p>
<p>Many, though not all, of the aspiring joiners have this overtly political motivation of countering US hegemony. The other important incentive is access to funds from the BRICS’ <a href="https://www.ndb.int/projects/">New Development Bank</a>. This is especially pronounced in the post-COVID climate in which many economies are <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/05/1136727#:%7E:text=Prospects%20for%20a%20robust%20global,Prospects%20report%2C%20released%20on%20Tuesday.">yet to fully recover</a>. Of course the two can overlap, as in the case of Iran.</p>
<p>The notable applicants have <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-says-it-has-applied-join-brics-club-russian-ria-agency-2023-07-25/">included</a> Saudi Arabia, Belarus, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-wants-to-join-the-brics-group-of-nations-an-expert-unpacks-the-pros-and-cons-209141">Ethiopia</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-says-has-chinas-support-join-brics-group-2022-07-07/">Argentina</a>, <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/09/the-new-candidate-countries-for-brics-expansion/">Algeria, Iran</a>, Mexico, and <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/turkiye-obvious-nation-for-expanded-brics-says-leading-economist/2896122">Turkey</a>. </p>
<h2>Expanded BRICS</h2>
<p>A strategically expanded BRICS would be seismic for the world order, principally in economic terms. </p>
<p>Key among the club’s reported priorities is <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/24/brics-currency-end-dollar-dominance-united-states-russia-china/">reduction of reliance</a> on the US dollar (“de-dollarisation” of the global economy). One of the hurdles to this is the lack of buy-in by much of the world. Though some states may disagree with the dollar’s dominance, they still see it as the most reliable.</p>
<p>Given the extent of globalisation, it’s unlikely that there will be attempts to chip away at the west’s access to strategic minerals and trade routes as happened during the <a href="https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/speech-president-nasser-alexandria-july-26-1956-extract">Suez Crisis of 1956</a>, at the height of the Cold War.</p>
<p>Instead, the new joiners would likely use their new BRICS membership to better bargain with their western partners, having more options on hand.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-wants-to-join-the-brics-group-of-nations-an-expert-unpacks-the-pros-and-cons-209141">Ethiopia wants to join the BRICS group of nations: an expert unpacks the pros and cons</a>
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<p>Herein lies the challenge (and the paradox) with BRICS expansion. On one hand, the grouping is not yet offering anything concrete to justify such drastic measures as de-dollarisation. On the other, the current five members also need to be selective about who they admit.</p>
<p>Among the considerations must surely be the track record of the applicants as well as their closeness to the west. The experience of having had a right-wing leader such as former Brazilian president <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-jair-bolsonaro-is-devastating-indigenous-lands-with-the-world-distracted-138478">Jair Bolsonaro</a> in its midst must have been a lesson about the need to be circumspect when admitting new members.</p>
<h2>Weighing the likely contenders</h2>
<p>In this regard, aspirants such as Saudi Arabia and Mexico seem the least likely to make the cut in the short term. That’s despite the Saudis’ oil wealth and Mexico’s <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/obrador-mexico-first-leftist-president-in-decades/4463520.html">leftist-progressive</a> leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Although they might be currently experiencing rocky relations with Washington, they have proven to be capable of rapprochement following previous disagreements with the US, with which they seem inextricably intertwined. </p>
<p>Saudi Arabia has a long-term military relationship with the US, while Mexico is the US’s <a href="https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0711#:%7E:text=and%20border%20region-,Mexico%20seeks%20to%20solidify%20rank%20as%20top,partner%2C%20push%20further%20past%20China&text=Mexico%20became%20the%20top%20U.S.,four%20months%20of%20this%20year.">number-one trading partner</a>. </p>
<p>Of equal importance in the evaluation of potential new members is the relationship the aspirants have with the existing BRICS members. This is because another crucial lesson has been the tiff between two of its largest members, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/20578911221108800?icid=int.sj-abstract.citing-articles.1">China and India</a>, over their disputed border. As a result of the uneasy relationship between two of its members, the bloc has become alert to the importance of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1758-5899.13010">direct bilateral relations and dispute resolution</a> among its constituent leaders.</p>
<p>Among the applicants, Saudi Arabia, which has had a fractious relationship with Moscow in the past, seems to face an uphill climb. It also has difficult relations with Iran, another applicant, despite their recent rapprochement.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-role-as-host-of-the-brics-summit-is-fraught-with-dangers-a-guide-to-who-is-in-the-group-and-why-it-exists-206898">South Africa's role as host of the BRICS summit is fraught with dangers. A guide to who is in the group, and why it exists</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>The country which seems the most suitable to join BRICS for ideological reasons, and will expand the bloc’s footing in the Caribbean, is Cuba. It enjoys strong ties with the existing members. It also has solid “counter-hegemonic” credentials, having been the bête noire of the US for more than 60 years. </p>
<p>Cuba is also a leader in the Latin American left and enjoys strong ties with many states in Central and South America (particularly with Guatemala, <a href="https://latinarepublic.com/2022/07/20/honduras-and-cuba-sign-a-memorandum-to-strengthen-bilateral-relations/">Honduras</a>, <a href="https://www.plenglish.com/news/2022/07/27/nicaraguan-fm-described-relations-with-cuba-as-endearing/">Nicaragua</a> and <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/venezuela-and-cuba-ties-bind">Venezuela</a>). Membership would boost its influence. </p>
<h2>Character matters</h2>
<p>If an expanded BRICS is to be an agent for change on the world scene, it will need to be capable of action. Having rivals, or states that are at least ambivalent towards each other, seems anathema to that.</p>
<p>Eager to proceed cautiously and expand strategically, the current BRICS states seems likely, at least in the short term, to pursue a <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2022/11/09/the-new-candidate-countries-for-brics-expansion/">BRICS-plus</a> strategy. In other words, there may emerge different strata of membership, with full membership granted to states that meet the group’s criteria over time. </p>
<p>It is thus not mere expansion, but the character of the expansion which will guide the five principals on whether they grow from that number.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210507/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Siphamandla Zondi is affiliated with the University of Johannesburg. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bhaso Ndzendze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It is not mere expansion, but the character of the expansion which will guide the five Brics countries on whether they admit new members.Bhaso Ndzendze, Associate Professor (International Relations), University of JohannesburgSiphamandla Zondi, Acting Director: Institute for Pan-African Thought & Conversation, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2105672023-08-01T15:42:09Z2023-08-01T15:42:09ZNuclear war would be more devastating for Earth’s climate than cold war predictions – even with fewer weapons<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540436/original/file-20230801-25-j40doe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5615%2C3000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/missiles-aimed-sky-sunset-nuclear-bomb-2145373151">Hamara/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Christopher Nolan’s biopic of <a href="https://theconversation.com/now-i-am-become-death-the-destroyer-of-worlds-who-was-atom-bomb-pioneer-robert-oppenheimer-209398">J. Robert Oppenheimer</a> has revived morbid curiosity in the destructive power of nuclear weapons. There are now an estimated <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/12/number-of-nuclear-weapons-held-by-major-powers-rising-says-thinktank">12,512 nuclear warheads</a>. </p>
<p>A war in which even a fraction of these bombs were detonated would create blast waves and fires capable of killing millions of people almost instantly. The <a href="https://www.atomicarchive.com/resources/documents/effects/wenw/chapter-2.html">radiation-induced cancers and genetic damage</a> would affect the remaining population for generations.</p>
<p>But what sort of world would remain amid the radioactive fallout? For the last four decades, scientists modelling the Earth system have run computer simulations to find out. </p>
<p>Using their knowledge of chemistry and climate modelling, atmospheric scientists <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/chemistry/1995/crutzen/facts/">Paul Crutzen</a> and <a href="https://twobtech.com/john-birks.html">John Birks</a> wrote a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4312777">short paper</a> in 1982 which suggested a nuclear war would produce a smoke cloud so massive that it would cause what became known as a nuclear winter. This, they claimed, would devastate agriculture and with it, civilisation.</p>
<p>A year later, scientists from the <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/6691/2023/">US and Soviet Union confirmed</a> first that cities and industrial complexes hit by nuclear weapons would indeed produce much more smoke and dust than burning the equivalent area of forest. And second, this global layer of smog would block out sunlight, causing conditions at Earth’s surface to become rapidly colder, dryer and darker. </p>
<p>Climate modelling shows the reduced sunlight would plunge global temperatures by up to <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/6691/2023/">10˚C for nearly a decade</a>. These freezing conditions, combined with less sunlight for plants to photosynthesise, would have catastrophic consequences for global food production and lead to mass starvation worldwide.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-climate-change-models-are-our-best-hope-for-understanding-the-future-175936">Modern climate models</a> are much more sophisticated than those used in the 1980s. And while there are fewer nukes in working order today, more recent results from computer simulations suggest that the grim prophecy delivered by scientists 40 years ago may actually have been an underestimate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A black-and-white photograph of a mushroom cloud." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540437/original/file-20230801-19-mlvhwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540437/original/file-20230801-19-mlvhwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540437/original/file-20230801-19-mlvhwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540437/original/file-20230801-19-mlvhwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540437/original/file-20230801-19-mlvhwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540437/original/file-20230801-19-mlvhwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540437/original/file-20230801-19-mlvhwo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=595&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The first detonation of a nuclear bomb: the Trinity test in New Mexico, US on July 16 1945.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/first-atomic-explosion-on-july-16-249574276">Everett Collection/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Clear and present danger</h2>
<p>Environmental scientists led by Alan Robock at Rutgers University in the US argued in <a href="https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/23/6691/2023/">a recent paper</a> that the nuclear winter theory helped end the proliferation of nuclear weapons during the cold war. In 1986, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1985/02/12/world/transcript-of-interview-with-president-on-a-range-of-issues.html?pagewanted=all">President Ronald Reagan</a> and <a href="https://www.salon.com/2000/09/07/gorbachev/">General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev</a> took the first steps in history to reduce the number of nuclear weapons while citing the predicted consequences of a nuclear winter for all life on Earth. </p>
<p>At the height of the arms race in the mid-1980s there were over 65,000 nuclear weapons. The reduction in the global nuclear arsenal to <a href="https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/">just over 12,000</a> (of which 4,000 are on operational standby) has ebbed the threat of all-out nuclear war, prompting some to question whether the <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/us-defense-to-its-workforce-nuclear-war-can-be-won/">limited climate models</a> used in the 1980s had understated the consequences of a global nuclear war. </p>
<p>Newer and more <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006JD008235">sophisticated climate models</a>, the ones used to <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-climate-change-models-are-our-best-hope-for-understanding-the-future-175936">model future climate changes</a> caused by the burning of fossil fuels, suggest the opposite is true.</p>
<p>With the largest possible nuclear exchange between the US and Russia, new models suggest the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021AV000610">ocean would cool</a> so profoundly that the world would be thrust into a “nuclear little ice age” lasting thousands of years.</p>
<p>Of course, there are seven <a href="https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals">other nuclear states</a>: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the UK. Scientists have modelled that even a limited nuclear war <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-64396138">between India and Pakistan</a> could kill 130 million people and deprive <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0">a further 2.5 billion</a> of food for at least two years.</p>
<p>A nuclear war is unlikely to remain limited, however. What starts with one tactical nuclear strike or a tit-for-tat exchange between two countries could <a href="https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a">escalate</a> to an all-out nuclear war ending in utter destruction. A global nuclear war including the US, Europe and China could result in 360 million people dead and condemn nearly 5.3 billion people to starvation in the two years <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0">following the exchange</a>.</p>
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<h2>The threat remains</h2>
<p>Scientific modelling allows us to peer into the abyss of a nuclear war without having to experience it. Forty years of scientific research into these <a href="https://thebulletin.org/2022/10/nowhere-to-hide-how-a-nuclear-war-would-kill-you-and-almost-everyone-else/">possibilities</a> encouraged the adoption of a United Nations treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons in 2017 – ratified by most countries but not the nine nuclear powers. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.icanw.org/nobel_prize">international campaign to abolish nuclear weapons</a> was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize that same year for its work in highlighting the catastrophe that would result from any use of nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>But the war in Ukraine has brought old fears to the surface. President Vladimir Putin of Russia has threatened a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-update-russias-elite-ukraine-war-major-speech-2023-02-21/">limited use of nuclear weapons</a> as part of the conflict, and a single launch could escalate into a regional or even global exchange that would plunge billions of people into a world so harrowing we can barely comprehend it.</p>
<p>Robock said that it is now “even more urgent” for scientists to study the consequences of detonating nuclear weapons and ensure as many people as possible know about them. And, ultimately, to work for the elimination of these weapons. The threat of nuclear war has not gone away, and a nuclear ice age which would doom much of life on Earth for millennia is still a possibility.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210567/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maslin is the UNFCCC designated point of contact for UCL. He is co-director of the London NERC Doctoral Training Partnership and a member of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group. He is a member of the Sopra-Steria CSR Board, Sheep Included Ltd, Lansons and NetZeroNow advisory boards. He has received grant funding from the NERC, EPSRC, ESRC, DFG, Royal Society, DIFD, BEIS, DECC, FCO, Innovate UK, Carbon Trust, UK Space Agency, European Space Agency, Research England, Wellcome Trust, Leverhulme Trust, CIFF, Sprint2020, and British Council. He has received funding from the BBC, Lancet, Laithwaites, Seventh Generation, Channel 4, JLT Re, WWF, Hermes, CAFOD, HP and Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors. </span></em></p>Climate modelling in the 1980s offered the first glimpses of what might lie beyond a nuclear war.Mark Maslin, Professor of Earth System Science, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2102622023-08-01T12:26:50Z2023-08-01T12:26:50ZThe nuclear arms race’s legacy at home: Toxic contamination, staggering cleanup costs and a culture of government secrecy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540032/original/file-20230729-63311-ud8ybo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C7%2C4716%2C3151&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Packaging excavated radioactive materials at the Hanford site in Washington state.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/cpEWtw">USDOE</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Christopher Nolan’s film “<a href="https://www.oppenheimermovie.com/">Oppenheimer</a>” has focused new attention on the legacies of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Manhattan-Project">Manhattan Project</a> – the World War II program to develop nuclear weapons. As the anniversaries of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/atomic-bombings-of-Hiroshima-and-Nagasaki">bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki</a> on Aug. 6 and Aug. 9, 1945, approach, it’s a timely moment to look further at dilemmas wrought by the creation of the atomic bomb.</p>
<p>The Manhattan Project spawned a trinity of interconnected legacies. It initiated a <a href="https://theconversation.com/hiroshima-attack-marks-its-78th-anniversary-its-lessons-of-unnecessary-mass-destruction-could-help-guide-future-nuclear-arms-talks-210115">global arms race</a> that threatens the survival of humanity and the planet as we know it. It also led to widespread public health and environmental damage from nuclear weapons production and testing. And it generated a culture of governmental secrecy with troubling political consequences.</p>
<p><a href="https://chass.ncsu.edu/people/wjkinsel/">As a researcher</a> examining communication in science, technology, energy and environmental contexts, I’ve studied these <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780739119044/Nuclear-Legacies-Communication-Controversy-and-the-U.S.-Nuclear-Weapons-Complex">legacies of nuclear weapons production</a>. From 2000 to 2005, I also served on a <a href="http://www.hanford.gov/page.cfm/hab">citizen advisory board</a> that provides input to federal and state officials on a massive environmental cleanup program at the <a href="https://www.hanford.gov/">Hanford nuclear site</a> in Washington state that continues today.</p>
<p>Hanford is less well known than Los Alamos, New Mexico, where scientists designed the first atomic weapons, but it was also crucial to the Manhattan Project. There, an enormous, secret industrial facility produced the plutonium fuel for the <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/history/trinity-test-1945/">Trinity test</a> on July 16, 1945, and the bomb that incinerated Nagasaki a few weeks later. (The Hiroshima bomb was fueled by uranium produced in <a href="https://www.energy.gov/em/oak-ridge">Oak Ridge, Tennessee,</a> at another of the principal Manhattan Project sites.) </p>
<p>Later, workers at Hanford <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/othergov/doe/pu50yc.html">made most of the plutonium</a> used in the U.S. nuclear arsenal throughout the Cold War. In the process, Hanford became one of the most contaminated places on Earth. Total cleanup costs are projected to reach <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-22-105809.pdf">up to US$640 billion</a>, and the job won’t be completed for decades, if ever.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The Hanford nuclear site in eastern Washington state is the most toxic site in the U.S.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Victims of nuclear tests</h2>
<p>Nuclear weapons production and testing have harmed public health and the environment in multiple ways. For example, a new study released in preprint form in July 2023 while awaiting scientific peer review finds that fallout from the Trinity nuclear test <a href="https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2307/2307.11040.pdf">reached 46 U.S. states and parts of Canada and Mexico</a>. </p>
<p>Dozens of families who lived near the site – many of them Hispanic or Indigenous – were unknowingly exposed to radioactive contamination. So far, they <a href="https://slate.com/culture/2023/07/oppenheimer-christopher-nolan-manhattan-project-nuclear-testing-los-alamos-trinity-victims.html">have not been included</a> in the federal program to <a href="https://www.justice.gov/civil/common/reca">compensate uranium miners and “downwinders</a>” who developed radiation-linked illnesses after exposure to later atmospheric nuclear tests. </p>
<p>On July 27, 2023, however, the U.S. Senate voted to extend the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act and <a href="https://www.currentargus.com/story/news/2023/08/01/radiation-nuclear-exposed-new-mexicans-trinity-site-compensated-us-senate-vote-oppenheimer/70484797007/">expand it to communities near the Trinity test site</a> in New Mexico. A companion bill is under consideration in the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/location/marshall-islands/">largest above-ground U.S. tests</a>, along with tests conducted underwater, took place in the Pacific islands. Meanwhile, the Soviet Union and other nations conducted their own testing programs. <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nucleartesttally">Globally through 2017</a>, nuclear-armed nations exploded 528 weapons above ground or underwater, and an additional 1,528 underground. </p>
<p>Estimating <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-014-0491-1">how many people have suffered health effects</a> from these tests is notoriously difficult. So is accounting for <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/location/marshall-islands/">disruptions to communities</a> that were displaced by these experiments.</p>
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<h2>Polluted soil and water</h2>
<p>Nuclear weapons production has also exposed many people, communities and ecosystems to radiological and toxic chemical pollution. Here, Hanford offers troubling lessons.</p>
<p>Starting in 1944, workers at the remote site in eastern Washington state irradiated uranium fuel in reactors and then dissolved it in acid to extract its plutonium content. Hanford’s nine reactors, located along the Columbia River to provide a source of cooling water, discharged water <a href="https://cumulis.epa.gov/supercpad/SiteProfiles/index.cfm?fuseaction=second.cleanup&id=1001114">contaminated with radioactive and hazardous chemicals</a> into the river through <a href="https://ecology.wa.gov/waste-toxics/nuclear-waste/hanford-cleanup/hanford-overview">1987, when the last operating reactor was shut down</a>.</p>
<p>Extracting plutonium from the irradiated fuel, an activity called reprocessing, generated 56 million gallons of liquid waste laced with radioactive and chemical poisons. The wastes were stored in <a href="https://ecology.wa.gov/Waste-Toxics/Nuclear-waste/Hanford-cleanup/Tank-waste-management/Tank-monitoring-closure">underground tanks</a> designed to last 25 years, based on an assumption that a disposal solution would be developed later. </p>
<p>Seventy-eight years after the first tank was built, that solution remains elusive. A project to vitrify, or <a href="https://ecology.wa.gov/Waste-Toxics/Nuclear-waste/Hanford-cleanup/Tank-waste-management/Tank-waste-treatment">embed tank wastes in glass</a> for permanent disposal, has been <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/31/us/nuclear-waste-cleanup.html">mired in technical, managerial and political difficulties</a>, and repeatedly threatened with cancellation. </p>
<p>Now, officials are considering mixing some radioactive sludges <a href="https://crosscut.com/environment/2022/12/hanford-considers-quicker-way-clean-radioactive-waste">with concrete grout</a> and shipping them elsewhere for disposal – or perhaps leaving them in the tanks. Critics regard those proposals as <a href="https://www.hanfordchallenge.org/inheriting-hanford/2023/3/17/should-we-grout-tank-waste-at-hanford">risky compromises</a>. Meanwhile, an <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/energy/safety-resiliency/Pages/Hanford-Tank-Waste.aspx">estimated 1 million gallons</a> of liquid waste have leaked from some tanks into the ground, threatening the Columbia River, a backbone of the Pacific Northwest’s economy and ecology.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing cutaways of Hanford radioactive waste tanks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540033/original/file-20230729-24848-e523wv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Underground waste tanks at the Hanford site, many of which are operating decades past their original design life. In total, they hold about 56 million gallons of radioactive and hazardous wastes. The Department of Energy has removed liquid wastes from all single-shell tanks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-21-73.pdf">USGAO</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Radioactive trash still litters parts of Hanford. Irradiated bodies of laboratory animals were <a href="https://www.seattlepi.com/local/article/Workers-uncover-carcasses-of-Hanford-test-animals-1225341.php">buried there</a>. The site houses radioactive debris ranging from medical waste to <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/energy/safety-resiliency/Pages/Naval-Nuclear-Transport.aspx">propulsion reactors from decommissioned submarines</a> and <a href="https://pdw.hanford.gov/document/E0025397?">parts of the reactor</a> that partially melted down at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania in 1979. Advocates for a full Hanford cleanup warn that without such a commitment, the site will become a “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Tainted-Desert-Environmental-and-Social-Ruin-in-the-American-West/Kuletz/p/book/9780415917711">national sacrifice zone</a>,” a place abandoned in the name of national security.</p>
<h2>A culture of secrecy</h2>
<p>As the movie “Oppenheimer” shows, government secrecy has shrouded nuclear weapons activities from their inception. Clearly, the science and technology of those weapons have dangerous potential and require careful safeguarding. But <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09505430120052284">as I’ve argued previously</a>, the principle of secrecy quickly expanded more broadly. Here again, Hanford provides an example.</p>
<p>Hanford’s reactor fuel was sometimes reprocessed before its most-highly radioactive isotopes had time to decay. In the 1940s and 1950s, managers <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1986/10/24/us/northwest-plutonium-plant-had-big-radioactive-emissions-in-40-s-and-50-s.html">knowingly released toxic gases into the air</a>, contaminating farmlands and pastures downwind. Some releases supported an <a href="https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/199602/backpage.cfm">effort to monitor Soviet nuclear progress</a>. By tracking deliberate emissions from Hanford, scientists learned better how to spot and evaluate Soviet nuclear tests.</p>
<p>In the mid-1980s, local residents grew suspicious about an apparent excess of illnesses and deaths in their community. Initially, strict secrecy – reinforced by the region’s economic dependence on the Hanford site – made it hard for concerned citizens to get information.</p>
<p>Once the curtain of secrecy was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09505430120052284">partially lifted</a> under pressure from area residents and journalists, public outrage prompted <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/radiation/hanford/background.pdf">two major health effects studies</a> that engendered fierce controversy. By the close of the decade, more than 3,500 “downwinders” had filed lawsuits related to illnesses they attributed to Hanford. A judge finally <a href="http://www.tricityherald.com/news/local/hanford/article57866938.html">dismissed the case</a> in 2016 after awarding limited compensation to a handful of plaintiffs, leaving a bitter legacy of legal disputes and personal anguish.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Au5tjNh87Ec?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Plaintiff Trisha Pritikin and attorney Tom Foulds reflect on 25 years of litigation over illnesses that ‘downwinders’ developed as a result of exposure to Hanford’s radiation releases.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cautionary legacies</h2>
<p>Currently active atomic weapons facilities also have seen their share of nuclear and toxic chemical contamination. Among them, <a href="https://www.lanl.gov/">Los Alamos National Laboratory</a> – home to Oppenheimer’s original compound, and now a site for both military and civilian research – has contended with <a href="https://www.newmexicopbs.org/productions/groundwater-war/2021/02/24/forever-chemicals-found-in-los-alamos-waters/">groundwater pollution</a>, <a href="https://www.propublica.org/article/federal-watchdog-identifies-new-workplace-safety-problems-at-los-alamos-lab">workplace hazards</a> related to the toxic metal beryllium, and gaps in emergency planning and <a href="https://nmpoliticalreport.com/2023/07/17/safety-lapses-at-los-alamos-national-laboratory/">worker safety procedures</a>. </p>
<p>As Nolan’s film recounts, J. Robert Oppenheimer and many other Manhattan Project scientists had <a href="https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2021-05/features/once-more-into-breach-physicists-mobilize-again-counter-nuclear-threat">deep concerns</a> about how their work might create unprecedented dangers. Looking at the legacies of the Trinity test, I wonder whether any of them imagined the scale and scope of those outcomes.</p>
<p><em>This is an update of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cold-wars-toxic-legacy-costly-dangerous-cleanups-at-atomic-bomb-production-sites-90378">article</a> originally published March 5, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/210262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Kinsella served with the citizen advisory board for the Hanford site cleanup from 2000-2005, representing the public interest group Hanford Watch. </span></em></p>Nuclear weapons production and testing contaminated many sites across the US and exposed people unknowingly to radiation and toxic materials. Some have gone uncompensated for decades.William J. Kinsella, Professor Emeritus of Communication, North Carolina State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2048852023-07-24T12:16:37Z2023-07-24T12:16:37ZHow the Soviets stole nuclear secrets and targeted Oppenheimer, the ‘father of the atomic bomb’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538815/original/file-20230722-19-gtfzxd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=27%2C0%2C3074%2C2024&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cillian Murphy as physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer in 'Oppenheimer.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://dam.gettyimages.com/universal/oppenheimer">Universal Pictures</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“<a href="https://www.oppenheimermovie.com/">Oppenheimer</a>,” the epic new movie directed by Christopher Nolan, takes audiences into the mind and moral decisions of J. Robert Oppenheimer, leader of the team of brilliant scientists in Los Alamos, New Mexico, who built the world’s first atomic bomb. It’s not a documentary, but it gets the big historical moments and subjects right.</p>
<p>The issues that Nolan depicts are not relics of a distant past. The new world that Oppenheimer helped to create, and the nuclear nightmare he feared, still exists today. </p>
<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin is <a href="https://theconversation.com/would-putin-use-nuclear-weapons-an-arms-control-expert-explains-what-has-and-hasnt-changed-since-the-invasion-of-ukraine-178509">threatening to use nuclear weapons</a> in his war in Ukraine. Iran is doing everything it can to <a href="https://theconversation.com/enriching-uranium-is-the-key-factor-in-how-quickly-iran-could-produce-a-nuclear-weapon-heres-where-it-stands-today-186985">develop nuclear weapons</a>. China is <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/29/pentagon-china-nuclear-stockpile-00071101">expanding its nuclear arsenal</a>. Hostile governments like China are <a href="https://www.striderintel.com/resources/the-los-alamos-club/">stealing U.S. defense technologies</a>, including from Los Alamos. </p>
<p>Charges that Oppenheimer was a Soviet spy and a security risk – a major focus of the movie – have been disproved. In December 2022, the Biden administration posthumously voided the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission’s 1954 decision to revoke Oppenheimer’s security clearance, calling that process <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/secretary-granholm-statement-doe-order-vacating-1954-atomic-energy-commission-decision">biased and unfair</a>. Declassified records reveal that Soviet spying on the U.S. atomic bomb effort advanced Moscow’s bomb program, but Oppenheimer was no spy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538816/original/file-20230722-39889-hklbnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A large orange cloud rises over desert land." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538816/original/file-20230722-39889-hklbnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538816/original/file-20230722-39889-hklbnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538816/original/file-20230722-39889-hklbnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538816/original/file-20230722-39889-hklbnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538816/original/file-20230722-39889-hklbnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538816/original/file-20230722-39889-hklbnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538816/original/file-20230722-39889-hklbnt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A mushroom cloud forms seconds after detonation of the first atomic bomb at the Trinity test site in New Mexico on July 16, 1945.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fc/Trinity_Detonation_T%26B.jpg">U.S. Department of Energy/Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Oppenheimer’s perspective</h2>
<p>Oppenheimer joined the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Manhattan-Project">Manhattan Project</a>, a nationwide effort to build an atomic bomb before the Nazis developed one, in 1942. The scientists he led at the Los Alamos site were probably the most talented group of minds ever assembled in a single laboratory, including <a href="https://www.tamupress.com/book/9781648431630/nobel-laureates-of-los-alamos/">12 eventual Nobel laureates</a>. </p>
<p>In 1954, at the height of the McCarthy era, Oppenheimer was accused of being a communist and even a Soviet spy. What’s the truth? </p>
<p>We know that in the 1930s, and until 1943, Oppenheimer was a Communist sympathizer. His <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/profile/frank-oppenheimer/">brother Frank</a> and <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/profile/jean-tatlock/">his girlfriend Jean Tatlock</a> belonged to the Communist Party of the United States, and Oppenheimer’s <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/profile/katherine-kitty-oppenheimer/">wife Katherine</a> was a former member. </p>
<p>For Oppy, as his students called him, Marxism was intellectually interesting, but it was also practical. Oppenheimer saw communism as the best defense against the rise of fascism in Europe, which, being of <a href="https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/article-750317">Jewish heritage</a>, was personal for him. </p>
<p>By 1943, however, Oppenheimer’s support for Communist Party causes shifted – evidently, as he <a href="https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C14540301">realized the enormity of his mission</a> to produce an atomic bomb. That year, Oppenheimer helped U.S. Army security officers <a href="https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C14540301">identify scientists he believed were communists</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/K7uvrd94mrg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Los Alamos, N.M., was developed as a secret town where scientists built and tested the first atomic bomb.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Russian overtures</h2>
<p>Oppenehimer was a top target for Soviet intelligence, which assigned him the code names CHESTER and CHEMIST. He was also being cultivated by Soviet intelligence officers. But being targeted and cultivated for recruitment is not the same as being a recruited spy. </p>
<p>As the movie shows, in 1943, Oppenheimer’s academic colleague at the University of California, Berkeley, Haakon Chevalier, told Oppenheimer that a British scientist working in San Francisco could relay information to the Soviets. Oppenheimer <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/profile/haakon-chevalier/">rejected the approach</a>, but for reasons that remain unclear, he did not inform authorities for several months.</p>
<p>Over the ensuing years, Oppenheimer provided at least three versions of the story, sometimes involving his brother Frank. It seems likely that Robert was trying to protect his brother from Army security.</p>
<p>Archives made available after the Soviet Union’s collapse now establish beyond doubt that Oppenheimer <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300164381/spies/">was not a Soviet agent</a>. In fact, Soviet intelligence reports about the Manhattan Project reveal that at key points, Stalin’s spy chiefs were frustrated that their operatives had not recruited Oppenheimer. But the Russians did penetrate the Manhattan Project – the greatest security breach in U.S. history.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538817/original/file-20230722-23-sagv3c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A page from a declassified security agency report describes events depicted in 'Oppenheimer'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538817/original/file-20230722-23-sagv3c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538817/original/file-20230722-23-sagv3c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538817/original/file-20230722-23-sagv3c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538817/original/file-20230722-23-sagv3c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538817/original/file-20230722-23-sagv3c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538817/original/file-20230722-23-sagv3c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538817/original/file-20230722-23-sagv3c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=617&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An excerpt from British security agency MI5’s dossier on J. Robert Oppenheimer describes efforts to persuade Oppenheimer and other scientists to share information about their atomic bomb research with the Soviet Union.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Calder Walton</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>All the Kremlin’s men</h2>
<p>Multiple scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project provided critical information about U.S. atomic bomb research to the Soviet Union. </p>
<p>“Oppenheimer” focuses on <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/profile/klaus-fuchs/">Klaus Fuchs</a>, a brilliant theoretical physicist who fled from Nazi Germany to Britain and became a British naturalized subject. From the time he started to work on Britain’s wartime atom bomb project, Fuchs was in what he later described as “<a href="https://discovery.nationalarchives.gov.uk/details/r/C11134981">continuous contact” with Soviet intelligence</a>, providing theoretical calculations that were necessary to build the atom bomb. </p>
<p>General Leslie Groves, the military commander of the Manhattan Project, later <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1950/02/05/archives/gives-views-on-alleged-atom-spy-groves-blames-the-british-in-atom.html">blamed the British</a> for failing to identify Fuchs as a Soviet spy. That’s correct. But the declassified dossier on Fuchs from Britain’s security service, MI5, shows that at the time, the agency <a href="https://www.mi5.gov.uk/klaus-fuchs">did not have any positive, reliable evidence</a> of Fuchs’s communism. MI5 knew that Fuchs was anti-Nazi, but not that he was pro-Soviet. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538818/original/file-20230722-19-l9u616.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Head and shoulder portrait of a man, labeled 'K.E.J. Fuchs'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538818/original/file-20230722-19-l9u616.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538818/original/file-20230722-19-l9u616.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538818/original/file-20230722-19-l9u616.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538818/original/file-20230722-19-l9u616.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=805&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538818/original/file-20230722-19-l9u616.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1012&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538818/original/file-20230722-19-l9u616.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1012&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538818/original/file-20230722-19-l9u616.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1012&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Los Alamos worker identification photo of theoretical physicist Klaus Fuchs, who passed information to the Soviet Union about the construction of nuclear weapons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ca-1944-los-alamos-national-laboratory-worker-news-photo/615305088">Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As I discuss in my new book, “<a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Spies/Calder-Walton/9781668000694">Spies: The Epic Intelligence War Between East and West</a>,” other spies at Los Alamos included a prodigious scientist, Theodore “Ted” Hall (code name MLAD, or “Young”); Julius Rosenberg (code name ANTENNA, later LIBERAL); David Greenglass (BUMBLEBEE, CALIBER). Other Soviet spies, like the British scientist Alan Nunn May, worked in other parts of the Manhattan Project. </p>
<p>These men had multiple motives for betraying U.S. atomic secrets. They were communist true believers and thought atomic weapons were too powerful to be held by one country alone. Moreover, they had a (misguided) defense – that the Soviet Union was America’s wartime ally, so they were “only” delivering secrets to an allied government. But as Nolan correctly shows in the movie, when Chevalier approached Oppenheimer with the same argument, Oppenheimer retorted that <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/27757496">it was still treason</a>. </p>
<p>Soviet espionage inside the Manhattan Project would change history. By the end of World War II, Stalin’s spies had delivered the secrets of the atomic bomb to the Kremlin. This accelerated Moscow’s bomb project. When the Soviets <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/history/soviet-atomic-program-1946/">detonated their first atomic weapon</a> in August 1949, it was a replica of the weapon built at Los Alamos and dropped by the Americans on Nagasaki.</p>
<p>Even now, nearly 80 years later, secrets about Soviet nuclear espionage are still emerging. One Soviet agent whose espionage has only recently been revealed is <a href="https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/profile/george-koval/">George Koval</a> (code name DEVAL), an American engineer who was drafted into the Manhattan Project, where he worked on polonium bomb “initiators” at a facility in Dayton, Ohio. </p>
<p>After Koval died in 2006, at the age of 93, Russia’s ministry of defense disclosed that the initiator for the first Soviet atomic bomb was prepared to specifications provided by Koval. Putin posthumously honored Koval as a “Hero of Russia,” <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300248296/the-secret-world/">offering a champagne toast in his honor</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538819/original/file-20230722-92729-1pcvlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo looking across dozens of buildings and facilities." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538819/original/file-20230722-92729-1pcvlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538819/original/file-20230722-92729-1pcvlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538819/original/file-20230722-92729-1pcvlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538819/original/file-20230722-92729-1pcvlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538819/original/file-20230722-92729-1pcvlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538819/original/file-20230722-92729-1pcvlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538819/original/file-20230722-92729-1pcvlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Today, Los Alamos National Laboratory is one of three federal labs that maintain the U.S. nuclear arsenal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LosAlamosLabAnniversary/42da501214c742d4b9932601aa37c8a7/photo">AP Photo/Jae C. Hong</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>New targets</h2>
<p>If Nolan’s film inspires audiences to read the deeply researched <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/13787/american-prometheus-by-kai-bird-and-martin-sherwin/">biography of Oppenheimer</a> by Kai Bird and Martin Sherwin, which inspired Nolan to make this movie, or <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Making-of-the-Atomic-Bomb/Richard-Rhodes/9781451677614">other accounts</a> of the Manhattan Project or the <a href="https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/odd-arne-westad/the-cold-war/9780465093137/?lens=basic-books">Cold War</a>, they will find that the underlying tissues of science and espionage remain alive. </p>
<p>Today, the world stands at the edge of technological revolutions that will transform societies in the 21st century, much as nuclear weapons did in the 20th century: artificial intelligence, quantum computing and biological engineering. Watching “Oppenheimer” makes me wonder whether hostile foreign governments may already have stolen keys to unlocking these new technologies, in the same way the Soviets did with the atom bomb.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204885/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Calder Walton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Spying was a concern from the dawn of the nuclear age, but charges that J. Robert Oppenheimer, who led the development of the first nuclear weapons, was a Soviet spy have been proved wrong.Calder Walton, Assistant Director, Applied History Project and Intelligence Project, Harvard Kennedy SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2089972023-07-11T16:16:46Z2023-07-11T16:16:46ZPainted messages in Angola’s abandoned liberation army camps offer a rare historical record<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535493/original/file-20230704-16-1h6k37.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lilian Ngoyi, one of the leaders of the 1956 women’s march against apartheid, is immortalised on an abandoned building. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Angola’s Malanje province, the buildings of Camalundu stand abandoned amid open fields. On one of them, the fragmented words “IAN NGOYI” recall a figure little-known in Angola but familiar to South Africans: anti-apartheid leader <a href="https://theconversation.com/lilian-ngoyi-an-heroic-south-african-woman-whose-story-hasnt-been-fully-told-188345">Lilian Ngoyi</a>. </p>
<p>These large letters partly hide some words that were painted previously. From the faded letters that are visible, I could make out some words apparently in Spanish. These layers of paint – texts of South Africa’s then liberation movement, the African National Congress (ANC), on top of Cuban texts painted on Portuguese colonial buildings – illustrate the changing uses of the site over the years. </p>
<p>Over the past three years I have been part of a project called <a href="https://global-soldiers.web.ox.ac.uk/">Global Soldiers in the Cold War</a>. We study the international exchanges of ideas about soldiering and politics that resulted from the interlinked liberation struggles and civil conflicts across southern Africa in the 1970s and 1980s. As part of this <a href="https://www.sources-journal.org/917">research</a> I visited some of the sites where liberation soldiers were trained in Angola. </p>
<p>The sites provide a rare tangible record of the international solidarity that existed during the Cold War: solidarity that prompted Cuba to provide civilian and military expertise to Angola’s MPLA-led government and to liberation movements from Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The liberation movements looked not only to their own countries’ histories but to earlier struggles in Cuba and Vietnam for ideas and inspiration.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-narrative-unfolds-about-south-africas-protracted-war-in-angola-54575">A new narrative unfolds about South Africa's protracted war in Angola</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>After taking control of independent Angola in 1975, the People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (<a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/angolan-civil-war-1975-2002-brief-history">MPLA</a>) – still fighting a civil war against its rival, National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/UNITA">Unita</a>) – gave refuge to liberation fighters from Zimbabwe, Namibia and South Africa. The apartheid regime in South Africa, determined to undermine the liberation movements, provided military support to Unita in order to weaken the MPLA. Both the MPLA and the exiled movements <a href="https://theconversation.com/fidel-in-africa-how-the-cuban-leader-played-a-key-role-in-taking-on-apartheid-69665">enjoyed the support of Cuban and Soviet military advisers</a>.</p>
<p>Camalundu, established by the colonial government as an agricultural training centre, was used by the MPLA first as a civilian and later as a military training centre, with Cuban personnel.</p>
<h2>Places of learning and solidarity</h2>
<p>Historians have viewed liberation guerrilla training camps as a particular kind of social and political environment. Host countries like Angola allowed exiled movements to act, to a certain extent, like enclave governments with state-like powers over their own members. </p>
<p>Guerrillas, already filled with idealism, absorbed ideas and experiences from their new environment. But they were also at the mercy of national and international strategic calculations, without the immediate prospect of returning home in triumph. </p>
<p>Camps were places where liberation fighters came into contact with officials and soldiers from their host countries, as well as trainers from Cuba and the Soviet Union. The slogans painted at Camalundu provide evidence of how people were taught that they were there as part of a global struggle.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536286/original/file-20230707-23-2owghu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The sixth congress of the Non-Aligned Movement, held in Havana in 1979, commemorated at Camalundu.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Facing the building with Lilian Ngoyi’s name was another slogan in Spanish: “VI cumbre un paso mas en la unidade de los no-alineaos” (six completes another step in the unity of the non-aligned), a reference to the <a href="http://cns.miis.edu/nam/documents/Official_Document/6th_Summit_FD_Havana_Declaration_1979_Whole.pdf">sixth congress of the Non-Aligned Movement</a>, which was held in Havana in 1979. </p>
<h2>From King Cetshwayo to Ho Chi Minh</h2>
<p>South African history appears again with the name of Cetshwayo, the last Zulu monarch to resist the British Empire before conquest. His name was painted above the entrance of another now-abandoned building. This was likely painted in 1979, the<a href="https://omalley.nelsonmandela.org/index.php/site/q/03lv02424/04lv02730/05lv02918/06lv02942.htm"> ANC’s “Year of the Spear”</a>, the centenary of the <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/article/anglo-zulu-wars-1879-1896">Battle of Isandlwana</a> when Cetshwayo’s army resisted the better-armed British. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535508/original/file-20230704-29-xeht2u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Zulu king Cetshwayo, defeated in 1879, commemorated a century later.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On a similar building, the letters “…O C… MI…” point to the commemoration of the Vietnamese revolutionary leader <a href="https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/people/ho-chi-minh-ho-chi-minh">Ho Chi Minh</a>. On another building, the remains of his portrait are just about visible, above the English translation of a slogan associated with him:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.rosalux.de/en/news/id/40928/nothing-is-more-precious-than-independence-and-freedom">Nothing is more precious than freedom and independence</a>. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>An ANC delegation <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/archive/green-book-report-politico-military-strategy-commission-anc-national-executive-committee">visited Vietnam in 1978</a>, a visit that had a profound effect on its military strategy.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535504/original/file-20230704-17-n6i00w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fragments of the name of Ho Chi Minh, painted not long after the ANC sought strategic advice from Vietnam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many of the slogans at Camalundu seem to point to events between 1978 and 1980. Not long after that, the ANC presence there ended when its soldiers were moved to Caculama, further east. Caculama had housed a training camp established by the Zimbabwean African People’s Union (<a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/25065139">Zapu</a>), which became vacant after Zimbabwe became independent in 1980 and the Zimbabwean soldiers went home. </p>
<p>Around the same time, American president Ronald Reagan and South African prime minister <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/pieter-willem-botha">PW Botha</a> renewed their respective countries’ <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2538933">commitment to supporting Unita</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-new-narrative-unfolds-about-south-africas-protracted-war-in-angola-54575">against the MPLA</a>. The Angolan ruling party had taken a firm stand against apartheid and Washington saw it as a bridgehead for communist influence. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/radio-as-a-form-of-struggle-scenes-from-late-colonial-angola-128019">Radio as a form of struggle: scenes from late colonial Angola</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The MPLA began to see the foreign liberation fighters it was hosting as a potentially useful military reserve. The former ANC soldier Luthando Dyasop recalls how ANC leader <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-anc-is-celebrating-the-year-of-or-tambo-who-was-he-85838">Oliver Tambo</a> <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-08-16-luthando-dyasop-journey-of-a-disillusioned-comrade-during-apartheid-south-africa/">told</a> soldiers of the ANC’s army, Umkhonto we sizwe (MK), they needed to “bleed a little” in recognition of Angola’s support for the South African struggle. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535503/original/file-20230704-17-82gfc1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1007&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The remains of bunkers and trenches speak to the defensive function of the camp at Caculama.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Justin Pearce</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Southern Africa liberation movements and geopolitics</h2>
<p>Whereas Camalundu’s buildings stand in open countryside, Caculama is buried in thick bush. Trenches and the remains of underground bunkers remind us that this was the front line of the MPLA’s war against UNITA. Exiled movements were responsible for their own security within Angola. When the MPLA positioned ANC soldiers somewhere like Caculama, it knew that in defending its own camps, the ANC would also be part of the government’s defensive lines.</p>
<p>In their different ways, Camalundu and Caculama provide historians with evidence of liberation struggles and how they were entangled with the international politics of the time. </p>
<p>A Zimbabwean government delegation, I was told, had visited Caculama shortly before I was there – an acknowledgement at least of the site’s historical significance. Yet so far almost no attention has been given to preserving these sites.</p>
<p><em><a href="https://www.sources-journal.org/917">A longer article about the training sites with more photos was published by Sources journal</a></em>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208997/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Pearce received funding from The Leverhulme Trust. </span></em></p>The sites provide a rare tangible record of the international solidarity that existed during the Cold War.Justin Pearce, Senior lecturer, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2087002023-06-30T12:40:27Z2023-06-30T12:40:27ZWhat Beijing’s muted response to Wagner mutiny tells us about China-Russia relations – and what it doesn’t<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534908/original/file-20230629-19-7buwfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=21%2C0%2C3581%2C2293&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping during happier times?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RussiaChina/b21450e006914cd0972c0d380cfc3a3e/photo?Query=China%20Russia&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1003&currentItemNo=45&vs=true">Mikhail Tereshchenko/Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>As mercenary troops <a href="https://theconversation.com/wagners-mutiny-punctured-putins-strongman-image-and-exposed-cracks-in-his-rule-208430">bore down on Moscow</a> on June 24, 2023, it likely wasn’t only Russian President Vladimir Putin and his governing elite in Russia who were looking on with concern. Over in China, too, there may have been some concerned faces.</em></p>
<p><em>Throughout the war in Ukraine, Beijing has <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-balancing-act-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-explained-178750">walked a balancing act</a> of sorts – standing with Putin as an ally and providing an <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economic-lifeline-to-russia-gives-beijing-upper-hand-8d58c151">economic lifeline to Russia</a> while trying to insulate China against the prospect of any instability in a neighboring country. A coup in Russia would upend this careful diplomatic dance and provide Beijing with a fresh headache.</em></p>
<p><em>Joseph Torigian, an <a href="https://www.american.edu/sis/faculty/torigian.cfm">expert on China and Russia at American University</a>, walked The Conversation through how Beijing has responded to the chaotic 24 hours in which mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin challenged the Kremlin – and why that matters.</em></p>
<h2>Do we have any clues about how Beijing perceived events?</h2>
<p>It will be hard to guess what Beijing really thinks, especially as there has been <a href="https://apnews.com/article/china-russia-ukraine-wagner-07903d30e08ac859f1ddb134574d7deb">little in the way of official comment</a>. Russians understand that the Chinese media – like their own – are <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/21/china-media-xi-jinping-crackdown-newspaper/">tightly controlled</a>. Historically, Russians have strongly cared about how they are depicted in the Chinese press. As such, China will be careful about what is being printed so that Chinese officials don’t get an earful from Russian diplomats. </p>
<p>However, real signs of worry from Beijing may get out. In a <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-cannot-return-to-the-country-it-was-after-wagner-coup/ar-AA1d0GAm">tweet that was later deleted</a>, political commentator Hu Xijin wrote: “[Progozhin’s] armed rebellion has made the Russian political situation cross the tipping point. Regardless of his outcome, Russia cannot return to the country it was before the rebellion anymore.” Similarly, China Daily – a publication run by the Central Propaganda Department of the Chinese Communist Party – quoted two concerned Chinese scholars <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202306/26/WS6498e508a310bf8a75d6b900.html">in its reporting</a> on the Wagner Group episode.</p>
<p>Such commentary may be a subtle way for Beijing to suggest to Moscow it needs to get its house in order. These views could also serve to remind the outside world that China and Russia are different political systems, and that Beijing will not always act in lockstep with Moscow.</p>
<p>At the same time, the Chinese government will be at pains not to give any support to a narrative that Beijing is worried about the strategic partnership. Global Times, a state-run Chinese newspaper, has already <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1293202.shtml">dismissed Western media reporting</a> that China’s “bet” on Putin was a mistake. Such claims will be framed in China as a plot to hurt Sino-Russian relations.</p>
<h2>So will the Wagner episode affect China’s support for Putin?</h2>
<p>The Chinese government likely believes that Putin is still the best chance for stability in Russia and that supporting him is a core foundation of <a href="https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3214426/china-russia/index.html">the bilateral relationship</a>. Some Chinese commentators have noted that Putin did emerge victorious quickly, and with little blood spilled. They may be right – although the insurrection is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/26/wager-coup-putins-regime-looks-deeply-damaged-despite-failure-of-coup.html">widely viewed as an embarrassment</a>, many observers in the West also believe that <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/what-prigozhins-half-baked-coup-could-mean-for-putins-rule?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=user%2FNewYorker">Putin will survive the crisis</a>. </p>
<p>On the Russian side, given the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253">importance of China for them</a> during the war in Ukraine, officials in Moscow will expect the People’s Republic of China to clearly express support for Putin. During previous moments of intimacy in the relationship, such help was expected and valued. In 1957, when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev <a href="https://soviethistory.msu.edu/1956-2/the-anti-party-group/">narrowly defeated a putsch</a>, he was so grateful that the Chinese blessed his victory he <a href="https://peaceandhealthblog.com/2022/11/24/china-russia-and-the-bomb/">promised to give them a nuclear weapon</a>.</p>
<p>There is a question of how Beijing would have reacted if the mutiny had escalated. History suggests that the Chinese might be tempted to intervene, but also that they understand the challenges any such action would face. </p>
<p>For example, during the 1991 <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2022/08/30/coup-attempt-mikhail-gorbachev/">attempted coup by Soviet hardliners</a> against then-President Mikhail Gorbachev, some of the leadership in Beijing contemplated providing economic support. Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, a long Soviet skeptic, ended those incipient plans, and the coup failed.</p>
<h2>What lessons might the Chinese have drawn for their own system?</h2>
<p>It’s hard to overstate how what happens in Russia has historically shaped thinking in China about their own country.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinese-communist-party">birth of the Chinese Communist Party</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/11/the-cultural-revolution-50-years-on-all-you-need-to-know-about-chinas-political-convulsion">the Cultural Revolution</a>, the economic reforms of the “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/9780815737254_ch1.pdf">reform and opening-up” program</a> from the late 1970s, <a href="https://www.ibanet.org/article/F9A7554C-E60E-4123-BC52-B57BB5129D32">policy toward ethnic minorities</a> – all of these and more <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2950030">were shaped</a> by what some in China thought the Russians were doing right or wrong.</p>
<p>But many in China may wonder how much they have in common with Russia today. Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping certainly have a set of conservative, Western-skeptic and statist “<a href="https://dictionary.apa.org/elective-affinity">elective affinities</a>.” But Xi’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ae4d37bd-0440-491b-a4b7-25ab6158e6ad">war on corruption</a> and the Chinese Communist Party’s “<a href="http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/special/china_1900_mao_war.htm">command over the gun</a>,” as Chairman Mao put it, mean real differences.</p>
<p>The Chinese will likely take pride in their own system, where such a mutiny is hard to imagine, but will nonetheless be careful not to crow about it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208700/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Torigian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China has provided Russia with economic support during the war in Ukraine. But Beijing may be concerned over recent events in Moscow.Joseph Torigian, Assistant Professor of International Service, American University School of International ServiceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2078752023-06-23T10:02:54Z2023-06-23T10:02:54ZBerlin blockade 75 years on: how Russian occupation tactics in Ukraine echo Soviet actions in East Germany<p>A <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/cold-war/berlin-blockade">Soviet blockade</a> of the three western sectors of Berlin started on June 24 1948. At that point, the city, like the rest of Germany, was split into areas of Russian, British, US and French control as part of the post-second world war <a href="https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/tehran-yalta-and-potsdam-three-wartime-conferences-that-shaped-europe-and-the-world/">settlement</a> that was shaped in allied conferences in <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/tehran-conf">Tehran</a>, Yalta and <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/potsdam-conference">Potsdam</a>.</p>
<p>For a short period immediately after the end of the war in May 1945, <a href="https://www.berlin.de/berlin-im-ueberblick/en/history/berlin-after-1945/">cooperation</a> between the victorious powers administered the city and its residents jointly. But within a year, this initial cooperation was becoming ever more fractious.</p>
<p>By 1948, the rift between the Soviet Union and its one-time western allies had further <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2618926?seq=1">deepened</a> as a result of the merger of the British and American occupation zones into “Bizonia” – the nucleus of the future west German state. Following Soviet withdrawal from the <a href="https://ghdi.ghi-dc.org/sub_document.cfm?document_id=2298">allied control council</a>, France, <a href="https://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GermanEconomicMiracle.html">Britain and the US introduced</a> a new currency – the Deutschmark – in their sectors on June 24 1948. </p>
<p>The Soviets responded by introducing a separate currency of their own and by blocking all road, rail and canal access to Berlin, <a href="https://www.berlin.de/berlin-im-ueberblick/en/history/berlin-after-1945/">triggering the Berlin airlift</a> which supplied civilians and allied forces in the city with food, medicine and coal. </p>
<p>From June 26, the western allies landed flight after flight to sustain the city in the face of Soviet pressure. Realising the futility of their actions, the Soviets <a href="https://www.berlin.de/berlin-im-ueberblick/en/history/berlin-after-1945/">lifted the blockade</a> on May 12 1949 and gradually allowed the full restoration of all land and sea connections to the western sectors of Berlin.</p>
<p>None of this would have been possible without the <a href="https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD0606598.pdf">massive effort</a> of the western allies to sustain the city. But the determination of the people of west Berlin, led by their social democratic mayor, Ernst Reuter, not to give in to Soviet blackmail was also vital.</p>
<p>Reuter’s <a href="https://connect.fes.de/trending/peoples-of-the-world-look-upon-this-city-ernst-reuter-1887-1953">speech</a> on September 9 1948 to a crowd of 300,000 Berliners had a message for the “peoples of America, England, France, Italy”. He called on them not to abandon Berlin, and this was critical in mobilising both the local and international support.</p>
<p>The years between the unconditional German surrender in May 1945 and the autumn of 1949 (the Russian-occupied zones officially became the German Democratic Republic on October 7 1949) were characterised by Soviet efforts to rapidly start building a new communist state.</p>
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<p>This was part of a Soviet/Russian military culture that is <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/nationalities-papers/article/new-wild-fields-how-the-russian-war-leads-to-the-demodernization-of-ukraines-occupied-territories/9F3EDE8420FF5E2846E066B247F43FA9/share/74cb3947abf546a9d7cb0bc32759843783f5a607">characterised</a> by brutal violence against civilians and cutting off occupied territories as much as possible from the outside world. </p>
<p>The Berlin blockade and later the Berlin wall <a href="https://fpc.org.uk/georgias-responses-to-borderisation/">foreshadowed</a> similar events in the Russian-occupied territories of Georgia after the <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-2008-russo-georgian-war-putins-green-light/">Russian-Georgian war of 2008</a>. And in relation to today’s Ukraine, this Russian policy is once again on display. The Kremlin continues to <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1137472">deny</a> access for UN aid teams to Russian-controlled territories damaged by the huge <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-what-we-know-about-the-nova-kakhovka-dam-and-who-gains-from-its-destruction-207130">Kakhovka dam disaster</a>, which flooded a huge area forcing thousands of people to evacuate and inundating towns and villages.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on the ‘referendums’ held in the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Similar occupation tactics</h2>
<p>The Soviet military administration in Germany had overall control of the eastern occupation zone, as well as east Berlin. German communist party officials, who had fled to Moscow from Nazi persecution and survived Stalin’s purges in the 1930s, coordinated the restoration of local authorities, initially in cooperation with other opponents of the Nazi regime. </p>
<p>Other political parties were officially permitted, but they were quickly marginalised. Within a few years, the system was dominated by pro-Moscow local communists. </p>
<p>This political dominance was further entrenched by reorganisation of other key sectors. On July 1 1945, a local police force was established in east Berlin and the Soviet occupation zone. A year later, the (east) German administration of the interior was created to coordinate various security services including a committee for the protection of all nationalised property, which gradually evolved into the ministry for state security.</p>
<p>This was a similar <a href="https://theconversation.com/self-styled-peoples-governor-of-donetsk-tells-us-these-areas-have-always-been-russian-29708">tactic</a> to the occupied territories of Ukraine from 2014, where the Russians quickly installed local political puppets that are loyal to Moscow. In the summer of 2014, for example, experienced military and secret police operatives were <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Dynamics-of-Emerging-De-Facto-States-Eastern-Ukraine-in-the-Post-Soviet/Malyarenko-Wolff/p/book/9781032094076">sent</a> to Russian-controlled areas of Donbas with the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28546157">task</a> of setting up security institutions. </p>
<p>Back in July 1945, a fundamental reform of the education system was launched in east Berlin and the rest of the Soviet zone. It was aimed at indoctrinating the young with Soviet propaganda – similar to the Kremlin’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/01/moscow-forcing-teachers-in-ukraine-to-sign-up-to-russian-curriculum">introduction</a> of the Russian school curriculum in the occupied territories of Ukraine in the summer of 2022. </p>
<p>In east Berlin and elsewhere in Soviet-occupied Germany, newspapers and <a href="https://www.lboro.ac.uk/subjects/communication-media/research/research-projects/screening-socialism/television-histories/tvinthegdr/">radio stations were either directly controlled</a> by local communists or their allies. While the nature of media and media consumption has obviously changed since the 1940s, the importance of controlling the media has not – and Moscow has been very effective in <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61154066">taking over</a> local media in the occupied territories of Ukraine, and establishing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/08/09/technology/ukraine-internet-russia-censorship.html">internet censorship</a>.</p>
<p>As part of de-nazification efforts, “special camps” were established where supporters of the Nazi regime and opponents of Moscow’s Sovietisation policy were <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/germany-postwar-soviet-special-camps/a-54759064">interned for years without trial</a>. Similarly, Russia and its local proxies set up “<a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-filtration-camps-osce/31825625.html">filtration camps</a>” soon after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 – where Ukrainian civilians face <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61208404">abhorrent conditions</a>. Previous instances of wide-scale abuses – abductions, illegal detentions and torture of civilians – in the occupied territories of Donbas were <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Countries/UA/Ukraine_Report_15July2014.pdf">recorded</a> by the UN as early as July 2014.</p>
<h2>An unwinnable war for Russia</h2>
<p>There is a potential third parallel. No matter how hard today’s Russia might try to break the will of Ukraine and its allies, any occupation may not be permanent. It took almost half a century for the eastern part of Germany to be liberated from Soviet domination. The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50013048">fall of the Berlin wall in 1989</a> ushered in changes that ultimately saw a reunited Germany. </p>
<p>Continuing western support for Ukraine’s counteroffensive is essential to ensure Russian occupation of Ukrainian territory does not become as entrenched as it did in East Germany. The lesson from the Berlin airlift must, hopefully, be that any Russian victory will ultimately be pyrrhic and temporary.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU's Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London and Co-Coordinator of the OSCE Network of Think Tanks and Academic Institutions.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tetyana Malyarenko receives funding from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.</span></em></p>The Soviets controlled the media, set up camps for dissenters and installed politicians who would do their bidding in east Berlin and east Germany.Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of BirminghamTetyana Malyarenko, Professor of International Relations, Jean Monnet Professor of European Security, National University Odesa Law AcademyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2078732023-06-23T10:02:53Z2023-06-23T10:02:53ZBerlin airlift and Ukraine war: the importance of symbols during conflicts<p>Every military conflict contains situations that eventually become its defining symbols. </p>
<p>The second world war, for example, could be summed up in the following seven symbols: <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Munich-Agreement">the Munich agreement</a> (appeasement), <a href="https://www.raf.mod.uk/our-organisation/our-history/anniversaries/battle-of-britain/">Battle of Britain</a> (resistance), <a href="https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/what-happened-at-pearl-harbor">attack on Pearl Harbor</a> (US entry), <a href="https://www.auschwitz.org/en/">Auschwitz concentration camp</a> (inhumanity), <a href="https://www.antonybeevor.com/book/stalingrad/">siege of Stalingrad</a> (turning point), <a href="https://www.army.mil/d-day/history.html">Normandy landings</a> (decisive action), <a href="https://www.icanw.org/hiroshima_and_nagasaki_bombings">bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki</a> (end). Symbols, as the American anthropologist <a href="https://www.ias.edu/geertz-life">Clifford Geertz</a> once put it, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7723/antiochreview.74.3.0622">“store” meanings</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Inside-DOD/Blog/article/2062719/the-berlin-airlift-what-it-was-its-importance-in-the-cold-war/">Berlin airlift</a>, initiated in response to the Soviet blockade of western-controlled sectors of the city in June 1948, is among the most potent symbols of the cold war.</p>
<p>The city and Germany had been run by four occupying powers as part of the post-second world war settlement: the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom and France. The Soviets tried to push the western powers out of the city by cutting off all land and water routes in to Berlin on June 24. They stopped all goods, fuel and food. The western <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_156163.htm">airlift </a> of essential items was something that the Soviets clearly did not expect. After 11 months they lifted the blockade, in May 1949.</p>
<p>The 75th anniversary of the start of the airlift on June 26 offers an opportunity to reflect not only on how the west (led by the United States) successfully faced down an aggressive adversary, but also on the importance of symbols.</p>
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<p>Symbols shape conflicts. Conflicts revolve around symbols and this one was no exception. In the process of the Berlin airlift, a symbol was created. The Soviets backed down, and the allies showed they were prepared <a href="https://www.alliiertenmuseum.de/en/thema/the-berlin-airlift-1948-49/">not to give up on Berlin</a>.</p>
<h2>Symbolic moments</h2>
<p>From Geertz’s observation about symbols – they store meanings – two crucial questions arise. First, what meaning does this symbol store? Second, what is the role of symbols in conflicts more generally?</p>
<p>Both questions are particularly significant given the current war in Ukraine where the west, after some initial wavering, has decided to face another act of Russian aggression. In March 2022, MP Tobias Ellwood, chair of the UK House of Commons defence select committee, was quick to make the link between 1948-9 and the war in Ukraine:</p>
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<p>The scale of international assistance that’s now required across Ukraine is greater than <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/planeloads-of-western-weapons-for-ukrainearrive-in-echo-of-berlin-airlift-fc9wqbh6t">the 1948 Berlin airlift operation </a>.</p>
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<p>Symbols have come to define the war in Ukraine too – think about Russian assaults on Bucha, Mariupol or Bakhmut.</p>
<p>In the coming days much will be said about the Berlin airlift as a symbol of resolve and resistance. And that is undoubtedly true. West Berlin’s main value was not military or strategic, but symbolic. US president Harry Truman repeatedly made it clear that the US and its allies <a href="https://www.trumanlibrary.gov/library/public-papers/150/presidents-news-conference">were not leaving Berlin</a>. However, there is also a practical lesson stored in this symbol which carries immediate relevance in today’s world. Any talk about resolve must be backed up and accompanied by capability to carry out the necessary actions.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The history of the Berlin airlift.</span></figcaption>
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<p>In the case of Berlin, no amount of resolve would have been enough had the allies not had the ability to sustain the airlift for nearly a year. At its peak, an aircraft was landing in Berlin <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/berlin-airlift">almost every minute</a>.</p>
<h2>Understanding significant moments</h2>
<p>The role of symbols in politics, and especially in warfare, is often remarked upon, but rarely studied in depth. The work of our late colleague, professor of international politics <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1354066118806566">Andrew Linklater</a>, examines how across the course of human history symbols have affected the use of violence.</p>
<p>Linklater shows that symbols have shaped considerations about acceptable and unacceptable <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/violence-and-civilization-in-the-western-statessystems/F5F35EAA9B343D202FFD15DAA64C6138">forms of violence</a>, but he has less to say about the significance of symbols in the pursuit of wars.</p>
<p>The key to understanding symbols in warfare is whether <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0022343320965666">symbolic victories affect outcomes of strategic conflicts</a>. A good example is provided by the fight over the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut during the past year, where thousands have died as Russian and Ukrainian troops battled for control.</p>
<p>Commentators have increasingly emphasised its <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/russia-grinding-bakhmut-advance-symbol-offensive-inability-ukraine-1780628">symbolic rather than strategic value</a>. Russia has not been able to derive much – neither symbolically, nor strategically – once it finally came to control the town which it reduced to rubble. While Russia has not been able to make Bakhmut a symbol, Ukraine has used it to demonstrate its determination to stand up to the invading force. </p>
<p>Symbolic victories matter in strategic conflicts only when they can be endowed with meaning. The symbolic value of West Berlin was precisely in the act of defending what on the surface appeared to be indefensible – a tiny bit of western territory deep in the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/germany-divided-world-war-ii">Soviet-controlled part of Germany</a>.</p>
<p>As many, including the US secretary of defence Lloyd Austin, have noted, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/us-defense-chief-says-ukraine-s-bakhmut-has-more-symbolic-than-strategic-value/6991380.htmL">Bakhmut has become a similar symbol</a> – a strategically relatively insignificant town turned into a symbol of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/04/03/bakhmut-battle-ukraine-resolve/">Ukraine’s resolve and resistance</a>. When Russia claimed to have taken the city, Ukraine insisted it would continue to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/why-ukraine-is-waging-a-brutal-war-of-attrition-against-russia-over-bakhmut">fight on</a>. It’s become a symbol of plucky Ukrainians who, like Berliners and their western allies in 1948, are determined not to give up. </p>
<p>While the current war in Ukraine plays out on a vastly different scale, the underlying logic of this conflict means that the lessons from the Berlin airlift remain relevant. Without the continued western willingness to commit serious and sustained material resources – Ukraine will become a symbol of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/28/putin-ar-the-west-zelenskiy-ukraine-russia">western timidity</a>. </p>
<p>Ukraine should not be put under unnecessary pressure by assertions that material and military support will eventually have to end because it will become unsustainable. In June 1948, neither side thought the airlift would last as long as it did, but the allies committed to it, compelling the Soviets to back down.</p>
<p>Finally, when a particular fight becomes symbolic, there needs to be a clear idea what meaning it has. It is such meaning that gives symbols their strategic power.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207873/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The allies determination to ‘save’ Berlin by flying planes in day after day in 1948, was a symbolic turning point.Jan Ruzicka, Lecturer in Security Studies, Aberystwyth UniversityGerald Hughes, Reader in the Department of International Politics, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2081362023-06-21T16:10:14Z2023-06-21T16:10:14ZUkraine war: Russia’s threat to station nuclear warheads in Belarus – what you need to know<p>The threat of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-threat-putin-using-tactical-nuclear-weapons-is-real-2023-06-20/">“real” and “absolutely irresponsible”</a>, according to the US president, Joe Biden. He was reacting to questioning from journalists as to whether he believed Belarus had been taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear weapons.</p>
<p>If true, it’s the first time Russia has deployed nuclear warheads outside its borders since the end of the cold war. This does not immediately mean a nuclear escalation with Nato, since Russian nuclear missiles <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65910958">stationed in the Kaliningrad region</a> already put Poland and the Baltic states within range. Experts are <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25-2023">sceptical</a> about Russia’s intentions to use these weapons in Ukraine. </p>
<p>But the presence of tactical nuclear arms in Belarus has, nevertheless, important implications for European security.</p>
<p>It would change the nature of the relationship between Russia and Belarus and bring Belarus deeper under Russian control. The two countries are already in what is known as a “<a href="https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2021/an-ever-closer-union/2-historical-and-legal-context/">union state</a>” after longtime Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko and Boris Yeltsin signed a series of treaties in the mid-1990s. These made for “deeper economic integration” and the “formation of a single economic space” as well as the coordination of foreign policy and military activities between the two countries. </p>
<p>The “union” was relatively loose until the 2020 mass protests in Belarus pushed the desperate Lukashenko to agree to a much <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukraine-invasion-how-belarus-has-become-russias-pawn-178072">closer economic and military integration</a> with Russia. </p>
<h2>The real target</h2>
<p>Noting that this is “not an escalation from Putin’s prior nuclear weapons rhetoric”, the <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/">Institute for the Study of War</a> says this is more about <a href="https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20May%2025%2C%202023.pdf">increasing Moscow’s military grip</a> over Belarus: “The Kremlin likely intends to use these requirements to further subordinate the Belarusian security sphere under Russia.”</p>
<p>The warheads will be under Russian control. Storage facilities are <a href="https://euroradio.fm/en/putin-puts-date-nuclear-weapons-transfer-belarus">reported to be under construction</a> for completion in early July. This will require a significant Russian military presence and permanent military bases in Belarus. </p>
<p>Belarusians do not want to have Russian nuclear weapons on their soil. Researchers from Chatham House who regularly conduct surveys in Belarus <a href="https://en.belaruspolls.org/wave-15">have found</a> that 74% of respondents in their March 2023 survey objected to deployment. The rejection of nukes is even more dramatic when analysed by which media the respondents are consuming. Belarus state media beats a relentlessly pro-Moscow drum. Among those who do not consume state media between 97% and 98% are opposed.</p>
<p>The prospect of Russian military bases is hardly more popular, with only 24% of respondents supporting it in an earlier Chatham House survey in <a href="https://en.belaruspolls.org/wave-10">June 2022</a>. The idea of a single foreign policy and army with Russia was backed by a mere 9% in the March 2023 survey.</p>
<p>This is yet another indicator of the chasm between the regime and the people, which was made evident by the <a href="https://theconversation.com/belarus-protests-why-people-have-been-taking-to-the-streets-new-data-154494">2020 protests</a>, the largest in recent Belarusian history.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/belarus-protests-why-people-have-been-taking-to-the-streets-new-data-154494">Belarus protests: why people have been taking to the streets – new data</a>
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<p>Belarusians are traditionally wary of having to choose sides when it comes to political alliances. And, despite a “vote” ratifying an <a href="https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis//2022/02/belarus-seeks-to-amend-its-constitution-to-host-russian-nuclear-weapons">amendment to the country’s constitution</a> to allow Russia to station nuclear weapons on its soil, the country is <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FL0guJiYaw9dK1j3YVovBdtwF91fafDy/view">increasingly divided</a> between those who look to Russia and those who are in favour of <a href="https://euneighbourseast.eu/news/opinion-polls/opinion-survey-2019-belarus/">closer relations with western Europe</a>. After Russia went into Ukraine, a <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FL0guJiYaw9dK1j3YVovBdtwF91fafDy/view">Chatham House survey</a> found that 47% were against the invasion, while only 33% were in favour. Another poll found <a href="https://en.belaruspolls.org/wave-11">93% would not support Belarus</a> entering the war.</p>
<h2>Fallout from Chornobyl</h2>
<p>And Belarusians also have a good reason to be strongly opposed to nuclear weapons. The memory of the Chornobyl disaster in 1986. About 70% of the <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/04/17/belarus-border-town-chernobyl-30th-anniversary/82888796/">radioactive fallout landed on its territory</a>, and there is evidence that Moscow <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/309235/manual-for-survival-by-brown-kate/9780141988542">deliberately seeded clouds</a> so that radioactive rain fell over Belarus rather than drift towards Moscow.</p>
<p>The political fallout was slower but no less significant: over the years, Chornobyl commemorations have become an <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-vilnius-ukraine-chernobyl-russia-nuclear-weapons-protest/32380909.html">annual rallying point</a> for anti-Lukashenko opposition. It also helped ensure that independent Belarus was the <a href="https://www.stimson.org/1995/politics-nuclear-renunciation-cases-belarus-kazakhstan-and-ukraine/">first among post-Soviet nations</a> to abandon its Soviet nuclear arsenal. </p>
<p>These points seem lost on Lukashenko, who has <a href="https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1669081820334268416?cxt=HHwWgICxodHE4qkuAAAA">publicly declared</a> that he will not consider the opinion of the Belarusian people about using nuclear weapons.</p>
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<p>Opposition opinions are <a href="https://theconversation.com/roman-protasevich-dissident-belarus-journalist-whose-defiance-enraged-europes-last-dictator-161451">dangerous in Belarus</a>, and state terror against all criticism of the regime has only intensified since Russia invaded Ukraine. The number of those arrested and sentenced to lengthy prison terms has been steadily growing. As of June 21, Belarus had 1,492 <a href="https://spring96.org/en/news/111863">political prisoners</a>.</p>
<p>This is just the tip of the iceberg of repression. Not only opposition activists, NGO workers, and independent journalists, but anyone who can be linked to the 2020 protests or who ever spoke out against the regime on social media is at risk of arrest. The recent <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/03/belarus-must-end-systematic-repression-release-detainees-un-human-rights">UN Human Rights Office report</a> decried “the unacceptable picture of impunity and the near-total destruction of civic space and fundamental freedoms in Belarus”, including the systematic use of unlawful detention, violence and torture. </p>
<h2>Consequences for Belarus and beyond</h2>
<p>Lukashenko is playing a dangerous game. Belarus’s economic dependence on Moscow, already heavy, has been <a href="https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/41544.html">deepened further</a> by western sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s share in Belarus’ trade grew from <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89276">49% in 2021 to 60% in late 2022</a>. Recently, a joint tax agreement with Russia, previously resisted by Minsk, <a href="https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/23766.html?utm_source=editorial_block&utm_campaign=recirculation_tut&utm_medium=read_more">reduced Belarusian control</a> over taxation. </p>
<p>According to the independent Belarusian monitoring organisation, <a href="https://motolko.help/by-news/belaruski-gayun-u-dadzeny-momant-ne-bachycz-faktay-peramyashchennya-yadzernaj-zbroi-y-belarus/">the Hajun Project</a>, there is no evidence that any warheads have arrived. But deploying Russian nuclear warheads would lead to Moscow’s permanent military presence. It would mean further loss of authority for Lukashenko and his generals. And worse, if Putin did decide to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, it would be an easier decision to launch them from Belarus and let them reap the whirlwind of retaliation.</p>
<p>Consolidating his control over Belarus would be a significant strategic victory for Putin’s imperial ambitions. Preoccupied with fighting in Ukraine and lacking a clear and decisive policy on Belarus, the west has no obvious immediate response. But if Moscow follows through with its threat it would be a dangerous moment – not just for Belarus but for Europe as a whole.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208136/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalya Chernyshova received funding from the British Academy in 2020-2022. </span></em></p>If Russia moves nuclear warheads into Belarus the political fallout could be enormous.Natalya Chernyshova, Lecturer in Modern European History, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2070782023-06-16T12:36:59Z2023-06-16T12:36:59ZThe Global South is forging a new foreign policy in the face of war in Ukraine, China-US tensions: Active nonalignment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532264/original/file-20230615-16608-dw7p4b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=365%2C455%2C3502%2C2143&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lula and Modi walking a new diplomatic path.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/vietnams-prime-minister-pham-minh-chinh-japans-prime-news-photo/1256611319?adppopup=true">Takashi Aoyama/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>What does the Ukraine war have to do with Brazil? On the face of it, perhaps not much.</p>
<p>Yet, in his <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/01/1146518711/leftist-lula-brazil-sworn-in-president">first six months in office</a>, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – now in his third nonconsecutive term – has expended much effort <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/24/americas/brazil-lula-ukraine-peace-coalition-intl-latam/index.html">trying to bring peace</a> to the conflict in Eastern Europe. This has included <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/02/10/joint-statement-following-the-meeting-between-president-biden-and-president-lula/">conversations with U.S. President Joe Biden</a> in Washington, <a href="https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202304/t20230414_11059515.html">Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing</a> and in a teleconference call with <a href="https://www.gov.br/planalto/en/latest-news/lula-speaks-via-videoconference-with-the-president-of-ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky">Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy</a>. It has also seen “shuttle diplomacy” by Lula’s chief foreign policy adviser – and former foreign minister – Celso Amorim, who has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/brazil-envoy-met-putin-push-ukraine-peace-talks-cnn-brasil-2023-04-03/">visited Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow</a> and <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/18/brazil-russia-ukraine-kirby-blowback-00092485">welcomed his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov</a>, in Brasília.</p>
<p>One reason Brazil has been in a position to meet with such an array of parties involved in the conflict is because the nation <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/brazil-wont-take-sides-over-russias-invasion-ukraine-foreign-minister-2022-03-08/">has made a point of not taking sides</a> in the war. In so doing, Brazil is engaging in what my colleagues <a href="https://www.ids.ac.uk/people/carlos-fortin/">Carlos Fortin</a> and <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/carlos-ominami">Carlos Ominami</a> <a href="https://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/profile/jorge-heine/">and I</a> have called “<a href="https://www.bu.edu/pardeeschool/2022/08/15/heine-outlines-the-doctrine-of-active-non-alignment/">active nonalignment</a>.” By this we mean a foreign policy approach in which countries from the Global South – Africa, Asia and Latin America – refuse to take sides in conflicts between the great powers and focus strictly on their own interests. It is an approach that The Economist has <a href="https://www.economist.com/international/2023/04/11/how-to-survive-a-superpower-split">characterized as</a> “how to survive a superpower split.”</p>
<p>The difference between this new “nonalignment” and a similar approach <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-non-aligned-movement-in-the-21st-century-66057">adopted by nations in decades past</a> is that it is happening in an era in which developing nations are in a much stronger position than they once were, with rising powers emerging among them. For example, the gross domestic product in regard to purchasing power of the five BRICS countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – has <a href="https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/03/27/the-brics-has-overtaken-the-g7-in-global-gdp/">overtaken that of the G7</a> group of advanced economic nations. This growing economic power gives active nonaligned nations more international clout, allowing them to forge new initiatives and diplomatic coalition-building in a manner that would have been unthinkable before. Would, for example, João Goulart, who served as <a href="https://library.brown.edu/create/fivecenturiesofchange/chapters/chapter-6/presidents/joao-goulart/">Brazil’s president from 1961 to 1964</a>, have attempted to mediate in the Vietnam War, in the same way that Lula is doing with Ukraine? I believe to ask the question is to answer it.</p>
<h2>Neither neutral nor disinterested</h2>
<p>The growth of active nonalignment has been fueled by the increased competition and what I see as a <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/16/u.s.-china-trade-war-has-become-cold-war-pub-85352">budding second Cold War</a> between the United States and China. For many countries in the Global South, maintaining good relations with both Washington and Beijing has been crucial for economic development, as well as trade and investment flows.</p>
<p>It is simply not in their interest to take sides in this growing conflict. At the same time, active nonalignment is not to be confused with neutrality – <a href="https://www.icrc.org/en/doc/assets/files/other/law8_final.pdf">a legal position under international law</a> that entails certain duties and obligations. Being neutral means not taking a stance, which is not the case in active nonalignment.</p>
<p>Nor is active nonalignment about remaining equidistant, politically, from the great powers. On some issues – say, on democracy and human rights – it is perfectly possible for an active nonaligned policy to take a position closer to the United States. While on others – say, international trade – the country may side more with China.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Men in suits stand by the coast." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532269/original/file-20230615-15503-3rtdan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532269/original/file-20230615-15503-3rtdan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=909&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532269/original/file-20230615-15503-3rtdan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=909&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532269/original/file-20230615-15503-3rtdan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=909&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532269/original/file-20230615-15503-3rtdan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1142&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532269/original/file-20230615-15503-3rtdan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1142&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532269/original/file-20230615-15503-3rtdan.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1142&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Yugoslavian President Marshal Tito at the Non-Aligned Movement conference in 1956.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/from-left-to-right-egyptian-president-gamal-abdel-nasser-news-photo/1365178535?adppopup=true">Archive Photos/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>This form of nonalignment requires a highly fine-tuned diplomacy, one that examines each issue on its merits and makes choices steeped in statecraft. </p>
<h2>Opting out across the world</h2>
<p>As far as the war in Ukraine is concerned, it means not supporting either Russia or NATO. And Brazil isn’t the only country in the Global South taking that position, although it was the first to attempt to broker a peace agreement. </p>
<p>Across <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/05/western-allies-pressure-african-countries-to-condemn-russia/">Africa</a>, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/indonesia-jokowi-walks-tightrope-balancing-ties-with-russia-west/a-62396110">Asia</a> and <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fc8d51c8-5202-4862-a653-87d1603deded">Latin America</a>, several key countries have <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-two-elephants-fight-how-the-global-south-uses-non-alignment-to-avoid-great-power-rivalries-199418">refused to side with NATO</a>. Most prominent among them has been India, which despite its closer ties with the United States in recent years and its joining the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/defining-diamond-past-present-and-future-quadrilateral-security-dialogue">Quadrilateral Security Dialogue</a> – or the “Quad,” a group sometimes described as an “Asian NATO” – with the U.S., Japan and Australia, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/03/16/explainer-why-india-walks-a-tightrope-between-us-and-russia/8bbe579c-c3fa-11ed-82a7-6a87555c1878_story.html">refused to condemn Russia’s invasion</a> of Ukraine and has significantly <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-16/india-now-buying-33-times-more-russian-oil-than-a-year-earlier">increased its imports of Russian oil</a>.</p>
<p>India’s nonalignment will presumably be on the agenda during <a href="https://apnews.com/article/biden-modi-india-state-visit-white-house-c969d6e4e9770c105ca7affe7c190714">Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s talks with Biden</a> in his upcoming visit to Washington.</p>
<p>Indeed, the position of India, the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-12557384">world’s largest democracy</a>, shows how the war in Ukraine, far from reflecting that the main geopolitical cleavage in the world today is between democracy and autocracy, <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/democracy-vs-autocracy-biden-s-inflection-point">as Biden has argued</a>, reveals that the real divide is between the Global North and the Global South.</p>
<p>Some of the most populous democracies in the world in addition to India – countries like <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/indonesia-jokowi-walks-tightrope-balancing-ties-with-russia-west/a-62396110">Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/pakistan-plays-on-both-sides-of-ukraine-war/articleshow/98496174.cms?from=mdr">Pakistan</a>, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/6/2/a-russian-love-affair-why-south-africa-stays-neutral-on-war">South Africa</a>, Brazil, <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/collection/blog-mexico-and-war-ukraine">Mexico</a> and <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/24/argentina-fernandez-russia-ukraine-war-brazil-lula-nonalignment/">Argentina</a> – have refused to side with NATO. Almost no country in Africa, Asia and Latin America has supported <a href="https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/countries-have-sanctioned-russia">the diplomatic and economic sanctions</a> against Russia. </p>
<p>Although many of these nations have voted to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the United Nations General Assembly, where <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/13/un-condemns-russias-annexations-in-ukraine-how-countries-voted">140-plus member states have repeatedly done so</a>, none wants to make what they consider to be a European war into a global one.</p>
<h2>How the ‘great powers’ are reacting</h2>
<p>Washington has seemingly been <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/09/10/nonalignment-superpowers-developing-world-us-west-russia-china-india-geopolitics-ukraine-war-sanctions/">caught by surprise</a> by this reaction, having portrayed the war in Ukraine as a choice between good and evil – one where the future of the “rules-based international order” is at stake. Similarly, during the Cold War with the Soviet Union, U.S. Secretary of State John Foster Dulles <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/08/27/taking-nonalignment-seriously/">referred to nonalignment as “immoral</a>.”</p>
<p>Russia has seen the new nonaligned movement as an opening to bolster its own position, with Foreign Minister Lavrov <a href="https://jamestown.org/program/lavrov-returns-to-africa/">crisscrossing Africa, Asia and Latin America</a> to buttress Moscow’s opposition to sanctions. China, in turn, has ramped up its campaign to enhance the <a href="https://theconversation.com/war-in-ukraine-might-give-the-chinese-yuan-the-boost-it-needs-to-become-a-major-global-currency-and-be-a-serious-contender-against-the-us-dollar-205519">international role of the yuan</a>, arguing that the weaponization of the U.S. dollar against Russia only confirms the dangers of relying on it as the main world currency.</p>
<p>But I would argue that active nonalignment depends as much on regional multilateralism and cooperation as it does on these high-profile meetings. A recent <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/south-americas-presidents-meet-in-brazil-for-the-first-regional-summit-in-9-years">South American diplomatic summit</a> in Brasília called by Lula – the first such meeting held in 10 years – reflects Brazil’s awareness of the need to work with neighbors to deploy its international initiatives. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Three men sit at a bench the one in the center has a plaque saying 'Brazil' on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532266/original/file-20230615-17-62b2q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532266/original/file-20230615-17-62b2q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532266/original/file-20230615-17-62b2q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532266/original/file-20230615-17-62b2q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532266/original/file-20230615-17-62b2q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532266/original/file-20230615-17-62b2q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532266/original/file-20230615-17-62b2q9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva speaks during a meeting with fellow South American leaders on May 30, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/brazils-president-luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva-speaks-during-a-news-photo/1258293847?adppopup=true">Mateus Bonomi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Think local, act global</h2>
<p>This need to act jointly is also driven by the <a href="https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/latin-america-crisis-economy-castillo-peru-lula-brazil-chile-boric/">region’s economic crisis</a>. In 2020, Latin America was hit by its worst economic downturn in 120 years, with regional GDP <a href="https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---americas/---ro-lima/---sro-port_of_spain/documents/genericdocument/wcms_819029.pdf">falling by an average of 6.6%</a>. The region also suffered the highest COVID-19 death rate anywhere in the world, accounting <a href="https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/47923/1/S2200158_en.pdf">for close to 30% of global fatalities</a> from the pandemic despite comprising just over 8% of the world’s population. In this context, to be caught in the middle of a great power battle is unappealing, and active nonalignment has resonated.</p>
<p>Beyond the incipient U.S.-China Cold War and the war in Ukraine, the resurrection of nonalignment in its new “active” incarnation reflects a widespread disenchantment in the Global South with what has been <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/09/liberal-international-order-free-world-trump-authoritarianism/569881/">known as the “Liberal International Order”</a> in existence since World War II. </p>
<p>This order is seen as increasingly frayed and unresponsive to the needs of developing countries on issues ranging from <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/international-debt-time-global-restructuring-framework">international indebtedness</a> and <a href="https://time.com/6246278/david-beasley-global-hunger-interview/">food security</a> to <a href="https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/migration-myths-and-the-global-south/">migration</a> <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/5/11/climate-change-is-devastating-the-global-south">and climate change</a>. To many nations in the Global South, calls to uphold the “rules-based order” appear to serve only the foreign policy interests of the great powers, rather than the global public good. In such a context, it is perhaps not surprising that so many nations are actively refusing to be caught in an “us versus them” dynamic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207078/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jorge Heine is a Wilson Center Global Fellow and a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for China and Globalization and a former Chilean ambassador to China, to India and to South Africa.</span></em></p>Brazil and India are among the countries pointedly not taking sides over the war in Ukraine. But this is not the nonaligned movement of yesteryear.Jorge Heine, Interim Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2064702023-05-26T16:10:35Z2023-05-26T16:10:35ZKissinger at 100: his legacy might be mixed but his importance has been enormous<p>Henry Kissinger, who <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/23/opinions/henry-kissinger-100-birthday-legacy-andelman/index.html">turns 100 on May 27</a>, is widely regarded as one of the most influential figures in 20th-century international relations. The German-born American diplomat, scholar and strategist has left an indelible legacy in global politics that continues to act as a bookmark for international relations scholars, students and today’s practitioners of statecraft.</p>
<p>From the late 1960s, Kissinger played a momentous role in shaping US foreign policy and navigating the complex dynamics of the cold war era. His contributions to international relations have had a lasting impact, earning him recognition as a visionary strategist and diplomat. </p>
<p>Few would disagree that Kissinger’s influence on US foreign policy has been immense, importantly as a thinker and academic. But his most significant impact was through his work as secretary of state and national security adviser to US presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. </p>
<p>One of his key contributions was his work towards US rapprochement with the People’s Republic of China, planning Nixon’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/nixon-mao-meeting-four-lessons-from-50-years-of-us-china-relations-176485">historic trip to China in 1972</a> through covert negotiations and deft diplomacy. It was a milestone event in US foreign policy that has shaped Washington’s engagement with Beijing since.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nixon-mao-meeting-four-lessons-from-50-years-of-us-china-relations-176485">Nixon-Mao meeting: four lessons from 50 years of US-China relations</a>
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<p>Kissinger’s participation in negotiations for the <a href="https://ash.harvard.edu/50-years-later-legacy-paris-peace-accords-isn%E2%80%99t-one-peace">Paris peace accords</a> from 1968 to 1973, which effectively ended the direct US involvement in the Vietnam War, was another key achievement. His relentless efforts in shuttle diplomacy between the US, North Vietnam and South Vietnam, contributed to establishing a ceasefire and evacuating US soldiers, ending direct US involvement.</p>
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<img alt="Henry Kissinger, Richard Nixon and John Wayne sit around a desk in an office in front of flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528612/original/file-20230526-21-6lc99m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528612/original/file-20230526-21-6lc99m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528612/original/file-20230526-21-6lc99m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528612/original/file-20230526-21-6lc99m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528612/original/file-20230526-21-6lc99m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528612/original/file-20230526-21-6lc99m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528612/original/file-20230526-21-6lc99m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">All smiles: Henry Kissinger with Richard Nixon and actor John Wayne at Nixon’s home in San Clemente, California, July 1972.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wayne_meets_with_President_Richard_Nixon_and_Henry_Kissinger_in_San_Clemente,_California,_July_1972.jpg">EatPay3/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>But despite the accolades, triumphs – and even the <a href="https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1973/kissinger/acceptance-speech/#:%7E:text=Though%20I%20deeply%20cherish%20this,of%20social%20and%20political%20discontent.">Nobel peace prize in 1973</a> for his contribution to the Paris accords – Kissinger’s record and legacy are controversial. There has long been a debate concerning Kissinger’s approach to international affairs, which according to his many detractors often overlooked ethical considerations. </p>
<p>Concerns about links to violations of human rights and the undermining of democratic values were sparked by his backing for authoritarian regimes such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/1999/feb/28/pinochet.chile">Chile under Augusto Pinochet</a>. Regardless, Kissinger never wavered in his conviction that his diplomacy should put US interests first while appreciating the complexity of the international scene.</p>
<h2>Foreign policy</h2>
<p>From his days in government, and then through his continuing influence as a renowned scholar, Kissinger’s strategic thinking and diplomatic approach have shaped US foreign policy in significant ways.</p>
<p>The biggest contribution Kissinger made to US foreign policy was his advocacy for <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2015/12/the-kissinger-effect-on-realpolitik/">“realpolitik”</a>. He believed that the US should base its foreign policy decisions on a clear and systematic assessment of power dynamics and the pursuit of geopolitical stability. </p>
<p>It was an approach that emphasised the pragmatic pursuit of national interests instead of a strict adherence to abstract ideological principles. </p>
<p>The key feature of this realpolitik was the importance of maintaining a balance of power, believing the US should actively engage with other major powers to prevent any one nation from gaining hegenomy or threatening US dominance. </p>
<p>This approach shaped his handling of major geopolitical events during the cold war, such as the aforementioned <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/the-50th-anniversary-of-kissingers-secret-trip-to-china-from-the-cold-war-to-a-new-cold-war">normalisation of the relations with China</a> as well as the development of a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45181235">détente policy towards the USSR</a> in the early 1970s. This perspective also emerged clearly in <a href="https://unherd.com/thepost/henry-kissinger-nato-membership-for-ukraine-is-appropriate/">his approach towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine</a>.</p>
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<p>Kissinger also made significant contributions to arms control and nuclear non-proliferation efforts during his tenure at the state department. His thinking on nuclear deterrence emphasised strategic stability and the need to prevent proliferation. </p>
<p>In this sense, his emphasis on negotiations and diplomatic engagement – intensified by his shuttle diplomacy method – managed to reduce the nuclear threat. </p>
<p>He played a pivotal role in negotiating the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Strategic-Arms-Limitation-Talks">strategic arms limitation talks</a> (Salt) in the 1970s, which resulted in the landmark agreements <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/salt">Salt I (1972) and Salt II (1979)</a>, fostering <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/45331142">stability in US-USSR relations</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Henry Kissinger, Richard Nixon and Golda Meir stood smiling with aides." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528613/original/file-20230526-21-83cym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528613/original/file-20230526-21-83cym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528613/original/file-20230526-21-83cym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528613/original/file-20230526-21-83cym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528613/original/file-20230526-21-83cym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528613/original/file-20230526-21-83cym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528613/original/file-20230526-21-83cym8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Big player: Kissinger with US president Richard Nixon and Israeli prime minister Golda Meir outside the White House in 1973.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://picryl.com/media/israeli-prime-minister-golda-meir-standing-with-president-richard-nixon-and">Library of Congress</a></span>
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<p>In the Middle East, his <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1148069">shuttle diplomacy</a> once again demonstrated his ability to bring adversaries to the negotiating table, notably during the Arab-Israeli conflicts of the 1970s and the negotiation of the <a href="https://peacemaker.un.org/egyptisrael-interimagreement75">Sinai II agreement</a> in 1975, which – temporarily at least – stabilised relations between Israel and Egypt.</p>
<h2>J'accuse: Kissinger’s critics</h2>
<p>But Kissinger’s legacy has also attracted foreceful criticism. Among his most vocal and persistent critics was the late British writer and journalist Christopher Hitchens. Hitchens’ book “<a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Trial-Henry-Kissinger-Christopher-Hitchens/dp/1859843980">The Trial of Henry Kissinger</a>” presented a series of arguments about alleged war crimes committed by his American “nemesis”. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="Cover of Christopher HItchens' book, The Trial of Henry Kissinger." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528614/original/file-20230526-23-i8ocrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528614/original/file-20230526-23-i8ocrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=825&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528614/original/file-20230526-23-i8ocrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=825&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528614/original/file-20230526-23-i8ocrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=825&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528614/original/file-20230526-23-i8ocrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1037&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528614/original/file-20230526-23-i8ocrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1037&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528614/original/file-20230526-23-i8ocrh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1037&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Christopher Hitchens accused Henry Kissinger of war crimes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amazon</span></span>
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<p>Hitchens accused Kissinger of disregarding international law and violating the sovereignty of many nations. His alleged involvement in controversial military actions such as the <a href="https://gsp.yale.edu/sites/default/files/walrus_cambodiabombing_oct06.pdf">secret bombing campaigns</a> of Cambodia and Laos has drawn substantial criticism and raised concerns about accountability and transparency in US foreign policy decision-making. </p>
<p>Moreover, America – under his guidance – also stands accused of launching in covert operations to <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/september/11/newsid_3199000/3199155.stm">overthrow the legitimately elected president of Chile</a>, Salvador Allende, in 1973 in order to install Pinochet), and of turning a blind eye to human rights abuses that occurred during Pinochet’s regime. </p>
<p>Similarly the country’s ostensible support for the Suharto dictatorship in Indonesia disregarded human rights and basic ethics. Of this, Kissinger had <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/there-are-three-possible-outcomes-to-this-war-henry-kissinger-interview/">this to say</a> in a interview with The Spectator in 2022:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I am, by instinct, a supporter of a belief that America – with all its failings – has been a force for good in the world and is indispensable for the stability of the world. It is in that region that I have made my conscious effort.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Despite all the criticism, Kissinger endured and remains a respected international relations scholars and advisor to this day. After leaving government in 1977, he reentered academia, serving as a professor at Harvard University, where he had previously earned his doctorate in government. As a scholar, Kissinger wrote several influential books, including Diplomacy (1994), On China (2011), and World Order (2014).</p>
<p>That he was <a href="https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2023/sessions/a-conversation-with-henry-kissinger-historical-perspectives-on-war">invited to address the World Economic Forum at Davos</a> this year shows that, although divisive, even today Henry Kissinger remains a highly influential figure.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206470/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anurag Mishra is affiliated with ITSS Verona. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>André Carvalho and Zeno Leoni do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Love him or hate him, you can’t ignore the importance of Henry Kissinger’s legacy in government and as a public intellectual.André Carvalho, PhD Researcher, Department of War Studies, King's College LondonAnurag Mishra, PhD Researcher at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University Zeno Leoni, Lecturer, Defence Studies Department and Lau China Institute, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1979802023-05-02T21:13:41Z2023-05-02T21:13:41ZNetflix drama ‘Another Self’ spotlights traumas and forced migration shaping modern Turkey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507438/original/file-20230131-5867-yczmof.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C92%2C5615%2C2833&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">On a road trip journey of self-discovery, three women friends of 'Another Self' visit ruins of the Temple of Athena in Assos, Turkey. (Herbert Weber/Wikipedia) </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Herbert Weber/Wikipedia)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Netflix series <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt14899624/"><em>Another Self</em></a>, released <a href="https://about.netflix.com/en/news/netflix-just-released-the-date-and-first-look-images-of-another-self">in July 2022</a>, is a drama / romance that tells the story of three friends living in Istanbul who travel <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/discover/turkey-ayvalik-aegean-picturesque-town-reminder-greek-heritage">to Ayvalik, a seaside town</a> in the northwestern Aegean coast of Turkey, where they experience a life-changing journey. </p>
<p>One of the protagonists, <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21101656/characters/nm1204660">Sevgi (Boncuk Yilmaz)</a>, has a cancer diagnosis. Sevgi attends <a href="https://www.harpersbazaararabia.com/culture/entertainment/netflix-unveils-its-newest-turkish-series-starring-tuba-buyukustun">a form of group therapy</a> about connecting with ancestors, and for a time appears to get better. </p>
<p>Seen <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkWolynn/status/1554827917430964225/photo/1">in some scenes of the show</a> is the book <a href="https://markwolynn.com/it-didnt-start-with-you/"><em>It Didn’t Start With You: How Inherited Family Trauma Shapes Who We Are and How to End the Cycle</em></a> by San Francisco-based author Mark Wolynn. Wolynn has <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CgzKMPGLKJD/">thanked the show for including his book</a>.</p>
<p>A theme in the show is some of the characters’ own skepticism about the role of ancestors in current suffering or problems, and their emerging exploration of this. </p>
<p>While we too should <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/10/trauma-books-wont-save-you/620421">critically reflect when it comes to our health</a> or popular advice about it, as <a href="https://merip.org/2021/06/intellectual-traditions-and-the-academy-in-turkey-an-interview-with-evren-altinkas">a displaced scholar</a> and as a historian of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/review-of-middle-east-studies/article/abs/transformation-from-the-ottoman-state-to-the-modern-republic-of-turkey-the-renewal-party-and-karakol/E8F7CBF115C026F7A3389F46149594D6">modern Turkey</a> and its emergence from the Ottoman Empire, I never thought that watching a show would have such an impact on my way of thinking about events in Turkey that affected my family. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Trailer for ‘Another Self.’</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Great Population Exchange</h2>
<p>The show spotlights problems affecting modern Turkey seen through different characters. </p>
<p>Following Sevgi, other main characters, <a href="https://m.imdb.com/title/tt14899624/characters/nm2704055?ref_=tt_cl_c_2">Leyla (Seda Bakan)</a> and <a href="https://m.imdb.com/title/tt14899624/characters/nm1735048?ref_=tt_cl_c_1">Ada (Tuba Büyüküstün)</a> also attend the group therapy. Throughout the series, we watch how an important trauma experienced in earlier generations — including events like earthquakes, political repression and sexual violence — affects their lives.</p>
<p>One of the main characters, Leyla, learns she inherited her fear of water from her great-grandmother, who was Greek with a Turkish husband living in Crete during the early 1920s. </p>
<p>The show depicts what is known as the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/program/al-jazeera-world/2018/2/28/the-great-population-exchange-between-turkey-and-greece">Great Population Exchange between Turkey and Greece</a>. This happened when the newly established Turkish republic signed a mutual exchange agreement with Greece in 1923 as a result of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/history-of-the-ottoman-empire-and-modern-turkey/turkish-war-for-independence-19181923/33BB1382FE0629F4F3F8F471AD562870">the Turkish War of Independence</a> against the occupying allied forces between 1918-23. Due to the hostilities between Turkish and Greek forces, both countries decided to exchange populations in the aftermath of the war.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A banner seen showing a man in a suit at a tourist trinket outdoor shop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523873/original/file-20230502-28-9tvfp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523873/original/file-20230502-28-9tvfp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523873/original/file-20230502-28-9tvfp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523873/original/file-20230502-28-9tvfp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523873/original/file-20230502-28-9tvfp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523873/original/file-20230502-28-9tvfp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523873/original/file-20230502-28-9tvfp8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A poster of modern Turkey’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk is seen at a tourist booth in Ayvalik, Turkey, in September 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Emrah Gurel)</span></span>
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<p>In the exchange, Leyla’s great-grandmother was left behind. Because she was Greek, she had to remain in Greece according to the <a href="https://www.mfa.gov.tr/lausanne-peace-treaty-vi_-convention-concerning-the-exchange-of-greek-and-turkish-populations-signed-at-lausanne_.en.mfa">Lausanne Peace Treaty</a> signed between the two countries.</p>
<p>When she tried to illegally cross the sea to be united with her family, she was drowned by the Turkish boatman. This population exchange was not the first of its kind between Turkey and Greece. </p>
<h2>Balkan Wars</h2>
<p>In 1912, as a result of the Balkan Wars, Muslims and Turks living in the Balkans had to <a href="http://ieg-ego.eu/en/threads/europe-on-the-road/forced-ethnic-migration/berna-pekesen-expulsion-and-emigration-of-the-muslims-from-the-balkans">emigrate to Anatolia</a>. My maternal grandparents were also among those Turks who had to leave their homeland in <a href="https://arkeonews.net/ancient-ruins-hidden-under-thessaloniki-metro-revealed/">Thessaloniki (in present-day Greece)</a> and emigrate to Izmir along the Anatolian coast.</p>
<p>The number of Turkish citizens whose ancestors emigrated from the Balkans in the early 20th century is estimated <a href="https://en.insamer.com/is-there-a-balkan-diaspora-in-turkey_3445.html">to be around 20 million today</a>, which constitutes a quarter of the Turkish population. </p>
<p>Turkey’s problems related with <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/turkey/publication/turkey-urbanization-review">internal migration and urbanization</a> can be traced back to the early 20th century, and the important demographic transition experienced during the early years of the republic. With the trend of internal migration from rural to urban areas, Turkey experienced urban sprawl. At the same time, <a href="https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/opinion/william-armstrong/urban-poverty-in-turkey-105927">a lack of transportation, infrastructure, roads and housing caused slums to become widepsread</a> in urban areas.</p>
<h2>Cold War conflict</h2>
<p>The character Sevgi believed since childhood she was at fault for her father being stabbed to death on her birthday. However, she learns from her mother her real father was a revolutionary who was shot at a meeting. </p>
<p>This context refers to how during the Cold War, Turkey was a hotbed of ideological conflict. Different <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1977/03/06/armed-clashes-of-rightist-leftist-students-shake-turkey/0b119b9d-4262-49ef-93ff-3a8defbc278a/">leftist and rightist factions</a> operated in the cities and universities, which caused polarization in society until the late 1990s. </p>
<p>Following the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-turkey-trial-1980-idUKBRE8330F320120404">1980 military coup</a>, the Turkish state implemented a strict policy against the leftist / revolutionary groups within the country. As a result of this, thousands of leftist intellectuals became <a href="https://doi.org/10.4000/remi.4572">political exiles in Europe</a>. My maternal uncle, <a href="https://www.ked-nordkirche.de/fileadmin/user_upload/baukaesten/Baukasten_Kirchlicher_Entwicklungsdienst_der_Nordkirche/Dokumente/Judika-2016-Flucht.pdf">poet and activist Cengiz Dogu</a>, was one of them. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A tank is seen in the middle of a city square." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508739/original/file-20230207-17-8vqj9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508739/original/file-20230207-17-8vqj9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508739/original/file-20230207-17-8vqj9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508739/original/file-20230207-17-8vqj9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508739/original/file-20230207-17-8vqj9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508739/original/file-20230207-17-8vqj9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508739/original/file-20230207-17-8vqj9f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A military tank is stationed at the centre of Kizilay, Ankara’s main square,
a few hours after the Sept. 12 1980 coup.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Burhan Ozbilici)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As my <a href="https://www.jadaliyya.com/Details/41840/Scholars-in-Context-Evren-Altinkas">research has examined</a> in relationship to Turkey, authoritarian regimes and the oppression of intellectuals and dissidents ended with forced emigration of the educated masses out of the country. This meant Turkey was left in a <a href="https://www.nst.com.my/opinion/columnists/2022/12/860749/turkiye-role-model-underdeveloped-developing-countries">cycle of underdevelopment</a>.</p>
<h2>Times of displacement</h2>
<p>Through watching this show, both <a href="https://www.jadaliyya.com/Details/41840/Scholars-in-Context-Evren-Altinkas">as a historian and</a> as a displaced scholar, it occurred to me that my quest for academic freedom has, in a sense, duplicated a family tradition of trauma through displacement.</p>
<p>Maybe, in times of displacement, what we need is to acknowledge ties with our past and start a new life, just like <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSKptGTROYk">the soundtrack</a> of <em>Another Self</em> suggests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197980/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Evren Altinkas received funding from the Middle East Studies Association (MESA) as a Global Academy Fellow between 2020-2022.</span></em></p>As a displaced scholar, I never thought a show depicting events affecting modern Turkey would so strongly impact my interpretation of historical and political contexts intersecting with my family.Evren Altinkas, Adjunct Professor, Department of History, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.