tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/columbine-shooting-69027/articlesColumbine shooting – The Conversation2023-04-25T12:27:16Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2004172023-04-25T12:27:16Z2023-04-25T12:27:16ZWhite power movements in US history have often relied on veterans – and not on lone wolves<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512087/original/file-20230223-4425-vmxhup.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A member of the Ku Klux Klan shouts at counterprotesters during a July 2017 rally in Charlottesville, Va., calling for the protection of Southern Confederate monuments.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/member-of-the-ku-klux-klan-shouts-at-counter-protesters-news-photo/810860866?phrase=white%20supremacists%20rally&adppopup=true">Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>For decades, the white power movement has gained steady momentum in the U.S. <a href="https://history.northwestern.edu/people/faculty/core-faculty/kathleen-belew.html">Kathleen Belew</a> is an expert on the history of the white power movement and its current impact on American society and politics. Her book “<a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674286078">Bring the War Home: The White Power Movement and Paramilitary America</a>” examines how the aftermath of the Vietnam War led to the birth of the white power movement.</em></p>
<p><em>In March 2023, Belew spoke at the <a href="https://www.imaginesolutionsconference.com/">Imagine Solutions Conference</a> in Naples, Florida, about how the narrative of the “lone wolf” actor distracts from the broader threat of the white power movement in America. The Conversation asked Belew about her work. Her edited answers are below.</em></p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Kathleen Belew speaks at the 2023 Imagine Solutions Conference.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>What is the white power movement?</h2>
<p>The white power movement is an array of activists that is, in all ways but race, remarkably diverse. Since the late 1970s, it has convened people of a wide variety of belief systems, including <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/19th-century/ku-klux-klan">Klansmen</a>, <a href="https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/ideology/neo-nazi">neo-Nazis</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/77.3.1221">white separatists</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/07/01/883115867/white-supremacist-ideas-have-historical-roots-in-u-s-christianity">proponents</a> of white supremacist religious theologies, and, starting in the late 1980s, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0031322X.2016.1243349">racist skinheads</a> and militia movement members. These activists represent a <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674286078">wide range</a> of class positions. The movement has long included men, women and children; felons and religious leaders; high school dropouts and holders of advanced degrees; civilians and veterans and active-duty military personnel. They have lived in all regions of the country, including suburbs, cities and rural areas.</p>
<h2>How has the legacy of US warfare fueled white power groups?</h2>
<p>After every major American war, <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674286078">the historical record</a> shows a surge in membership and activity among extremist groups like the Ku Klux Klan. In each example, <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/military-police-and-rise-terrorism-united-states">these groups also adopt</a> elements of military activity, like uniforms, weapons and the latest military tactics. But this doesn’t mean that these surges are entirely composed of veterans. <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Deep-Violence-Military-Social-Weapons-ebook/dp/B00PSSF7UC?ref_=ast_author_dp">All measures of violence rise after warfare</a>, including acts carried out by women, children and older people. Groups like the Ku Klux Klan have been able to <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Bring-War-Home-Movement-Paramilitary/dp/0674237692/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=1678477040&sr=8-1">use this postwar opportunity</a> for their own purposes: recruitment and radicalization.</p>
<h2>When and why did the white power movement emerge in the US?</h2>
<p>The white power movement <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/19/us/the-secret-history-of-white-power.html">came together</a> in the late 1970s around a <a href="https://www.npr.org/transcripts/605661710">shared narrative of the Vietnam War</a>. In this narrative, the war exemplifies the failure of government, the betrayal of the American people by the government and the betrayal of American men by the state. </p>
<p>Disillusioned veterans and civilians alike mobilized around a number of other <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Backlash-Undeclared-Against-American-Women/dp/0307345424">social grievances, such as dissatisfaction</a> with changes caused by feminism, the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/eyesontheprize-responses-coming-civil-rights-movement/">Civil Rights Movement</a> and other movements at home, as well as frustrations with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1215/00021482-74.2.366">economic changes like the farms crisis</a> and the general move to financialization in the 1970s that made it harder to find and keep a working-class job.</p>
<p>This disaffection allowed for the white power movement to recruit in two different ways: narrative force – the story that was used to hold these activists together; and contextual force – the social grievances many of them had in common.</p>
<h2>What role do women play in the white supremacist movement?</h2>
<p>People often think of the white power and militia movements as men’s movements. It’s true that the <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/white-supremacy-returned-mainstream-politics/">majority of media reports heavily feature men</a>; that’s because those who participate in public demonstrations and those who get arrested because of underground activity tend to be men. But this is a movement that has relied in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190204204.013.37">extraordinarily heavy ways on women</a>. </p>
<p>Women have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190265144.003.0013">been tasked with normalizing</a> and legitimating violence, orchestrating recruitment and maintaining the relationships that allow this movement to operate as a social network. Take, for instance, the <a href="https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674286078">Aryan Nations World Congress</a>, a 1983 meeting in which the white power movement declared war on the United States. This meeting featured men’s speeches and ideological activities, a cross burning and a swastika burning. But it also featured matchmaking and a big spaghetti dinner, which socially bound activists together to enable the organization of violence. Women were indispensable for arranging these kinds of activities and for maintaining strong relationships between groups.</p>
<h2>Where do US veterans fit in?</h2>
<p>Veterans are specifically targeted for recruitment into white power groups because they and active-duty service members have a set of experiences and expertise that is very much in demand by these groups. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/24/us-military-white-supremacy-extremist-plot">Veterans have tactical training</a>, munitions expertise and weapons training that the white power movement wants because it is trying to wage war on the American government – in fact, this movement has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/117/meeting/house/113968/witnesses/HHRG-117-VR00-Wstate-JonesS-20211013.pdf">directed recruitment</a> specifically aimed at veterans and active-duty troops. </p>
<p>While very few veterans returning from war join white power groups, the groups still feature an <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/02/06/signs-of-white-supremacy-extremism-up-again-in-poll-of-active-duty-troops/">enormous percentage of people who are veterans</a> or active duty – or falsely claim to be. This is because those military roles are in high demand among these groups – and their command structure within the movement mirrors military organization. </p>
<h2>How can the US address its lack of care toward veterans?</h2>
<p>The white power movement is one example of a broader social failure to support veterans and to reckon with the cost of warfare. This movement is able to <a href="https://www.militarytimes.com/veterans/2022/06/23/military-veterans-targeted-by-extremists-preying-on-patriots/">opportunistically mobilize disaffected people</a> in the aftermath of war because <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Failing-Our-Veterans-Vietnam-Generation/dp/0814724876">our society lacks robust social structures</a> to reintegrate people after warfare and to have a real public discourse about the price of war. </p>
<p>Before <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/10/magazine/fall-of-kabul-afghanistan.html">the fall of Kabul</a> in Afghanistan, my undergraduate students at Northwestern and the University of Chicago had been at war for their entire living memory. These are kids who don’t remember 9/11. And yet that war has not featured prominently even in the list of the top five or 10 crises facing our nation. In the recent past, war has not been at the center of our political conversation. We <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167629612001178">don’t reckon with the massive impact</a> the people who serve in our armed forces shoulder for the nation. </p>
<p>In all of these ways, the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/21st-century/war-on-terror-timeline">global war on terror</a> has <a href="https://www.congress.gov/117/meeting/house/113968/witnesses/HHRG-117-VR00-Wstate-Miller-IdrissC-20211013-U1.pdf">continued the cycle</a> of generating a recruitment opportunity for extremist groups. We are now in the middle of a <a href="https://acleddata.com/2022/12/06/from-the-capitol-riot-to-the-midterms-shifts-in-american-far-right-mobilization-between-2021-and-2022/">massive groundswell of white power</a> and militant right activity, both underground and in public-facing actions.</p>
<h2>What are you working on now that people might not be aware of?</h2>
<p>My next project departs from the white power movement to examine gun violence in America, specifically the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1990s/columbine-high-school-shootings">Columbine shooting</a> – which happened when I was in high school, not far from where I was in high school – as a fulcrum point between the 20th century and the 21st. There were mass shootings at schools and elsewhere before Columbine. But Columbine really marks the moment when mass shootings became normalized. I think the event signals major fissures in the social fabric and reflects other massive changes in how society thinks about place, politics and violence – not only in Colorado but in the nation as a whole.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200417/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An expert in American history explains the white power movement, its impact on veterans and women and how the Vietnam War was the impetus for extremist groups to gain new members.Kathleen Belew, Associate Professor of History, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1924942022-10-25T12:28:57Z2022-10-25T12:28:57ZSchool shootings are already at a record in 2022 – with months still to go<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491491/original/file-20221024-6634-qskd98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C47%2C5328%2C3477&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">St Louis' Central Visual and Performing Arts High School -- the latest scene of school gun violence.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SchoolShootingStLouis/a88f6f79054c4c6792d4847e8a6ff21c/photo?Query=St%20Louis&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=209931&currentItemNo=11">AP Photo/Jeff Roberson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As a Michigan teen <a href="https://apnews.com/article/pontiac-michigan-oxford-high-school-shooting-crime-shootings-ff69e26f96bb07af5dcb76bddc650bb4">pleaded guilty on Oct. 24, 2022, to killing four</a> students in a December 2021 attack, America was learning of yet another school shooting. This time, it was a performance arts high school in St. Louis, where a former student opened fire, <a href="https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local/st-louis-school-shooting/63-64842130-cbbb-4731-9536-7cb66f0e2ae3">killing two and injuring at least seven</a> others before dying in a shootout with police.</p>
<p>The fact that yet another school shooting took place within hours of a gunman in a separate case appearing in court underscores how often these events take place in the U.S. As criminologists who have <a href="https://k12ssdb.org/">built a comprehensive database</a> to log all school shootings in the U.S., we know that deadly school gun violence in America in now a regular occurrence – with incidents only becoming more frequent and deadlier.</p>
<p>Our records show that seven more people died in <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-we-know-about-mass-school-shootings-in-the-us-and-the-gunmen-who-carry-them-out-183812">mass shootings at U.S. schools</a> between 2018 and 2022 – a total of 52 – than in the previous 18 years combined since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-columbine-became-a-blueprint-for-school-shooters-115115">watershed</a> 1999 Columbine High School massacre.</p>
<p>Since the February 2018 <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/teacher-coach14-year-freshman-florida-high-school-massacre/story?id=53092879">mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School</a> in Florida, moreover, more than <a href="http://k12ssdb.org/">700 people have been shot</a> at U.S. schools on <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/34685039/rise-gun-violence-school-sports">football fields</a> and in classrooms, hallways, cafeterias and parking lots. </p>
<p>Many of these shootings were not the mass killing events that schools typically drill for. Rather, they were an extension of <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-recent-rise-in-violent-crime-is-driven-by-gun-violence/">rising everyday gun violence</a>.</p>
<h2>More frequent and deadlier</h2>
<p>There have been shootings at U.S. schools almost <a href="https://k12ssdb.org/active-shooter">every year since 1966</a>, but in 2021 there were a record 250 shooting incidents – including any occurrence of a <a href="https://k12ssdb.org/methodology-1">firearm being discharged</a>, be it related to suicides, accidental shootings, gang-related violence or incidents at after-hours school events.</p>
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<p>That’s double the annual number of shooting incidents recorded in the previous three years – in both 2018 and 2019, 119 shootings were logged, and there were 114 incidents in 2020.</p>
<p>With more than two months left, 2022 is already the worst year on record. As of Oct. 24, there have been <a href="https://k12ssdb.org/all-shootings">257 shootings on school campuses</a> – passing the 250 total for all of 2021.</p>
<p>Many of these incidents have been simple disputes turned deadly because teenagers came to school angry and armed. At East High in Des Moines, Iowa, in March 2022, for example, six teens allegedly fired 42 shots in an incident that took place during school dismissal time. The <a href="https://www.kcci.com/article/shooting-reported-outside-des-moines-iowa-school/39359495#">hail of gunfire killed one boy</a> and critically injured two female bystanders. The district attorney described the case as one of the most <a href="https://who13.com/news/metro-news/10-teens-6-guns-42-bullets-complicate-murder-trials-in-shooting-outside-east-high/">complex murder investigations</a> their office has ever conducted, partly because six handguns were used.</p>
<p>At Miami Gardens High in Florida that same month, two teens <a href="https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/2-were-in-high-school-classroom-when-wounded-in-miami-gardens-shooting/2710581/">are alleged to have</a> sprayed more than 100 rounds with a rifle and handgun modified for fully automatic fire. They targeted a student standing in front of the school, but bullets penetrated the building, <a href="https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/2-were-in-high-school-classroom-when-wounded-in-miami-gardens-shooting/2710581/">striking two students</a> sitting inside.</p>
<p>A similar situation <a href="https://6abc.com/troy-fletcher-arrested-roxborough-high-school-shooting-deadly-ambush-zyhied-jones/12339529/">unfolded outside Roxborough High in Philadelphia</a> in October. A lunchtime dispute among students allegedly turned into a targeted shooting after a football scrimmage. <a href="https://6abc.com/roxborough-high-school-philadelphia-ambush-shooting-deadly-philly-person-of-interest/12296625/">Five teenage shooters</a> are believed to have fired 60 shots at five classmates leaving the game, killing a 15-year-old. </p>
<p>In each of these cases, multiple student shooters fired dozens of shots.</p>
<p>The tally for 2022 also includes incidents involving lone shooters.</p>
<p>In April, a <a href="https://medium.com/homeland-security/kids-in-crosshairs-sniper-attacks-on-schools-3a0f41dba35a">sniper with 1,000 rounds of ammunition</a> and six semiautomatic rifles fired from a fifth-floor window overlooking the Edmund Burke School in Washington, D.C. at dismissal. A <a href="https://wjla.com/news/local/dc-sniper-van-ness-shooting-edmund-burke-school-16-year-old-student-recalls-mass-shooting-helping-12-year-old-classmate-shot-injured-cleveland-park-victims-crime">student</a>, parent, school security officer and bystander were wounded before the shooter died by suicide. </p>
<h2>Threats, hoaxes and false alarms</h2>
<p>The increase in shootings in and around school buildings has many parents, students and teachers on edge. An October 2022 Pew Research survey found that <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/18/about-a-third-of-k-12-parents-are-very-or-extremely-worried-a-shooting-could-happen-at-their-childrens-school/">one-third of parents</a> report being “very worried” or “extremely worried” about a shooting at their child’s school.</p>
<p>Aside from the near daily occurrences of actual school shootings, there are also the near misses and false alarms that only add to the heightened sense of threat.</p>
<p>In September, a potential attack was averted in Houston when police got a tip that a <a href="https://abc13.com/school-threat-james-madison-high-teens-charged-for-threatening-gun-violence/12234873/">student planned to chain the cafeteria doors shut</a> and shoot students who were trapped inside. The following day near Dallas, another tip sent police scrambling to stop a vehicle on the way to a high school homecoming football game. <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/crime/article266043036.html">Two teens had a loaded semiautomatic rifle</a> and planned to commit a mass shooting at the stadium, it is alleged.</p>
<p>There have also been <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/07/1127242702/false-calls-about-active-shooters-at-schools-are-up-why">thousands</a> of false reports of shootings this year. Hoaxes, <a href="https://fox11online.com/news/local/wisconsin-parents-lawmakers-respond-thursdays-school-swatting-calls-oshkosh-greenbay-threat">swatting calls</a>, even a viral <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/12/20/school-threats-oxford-shooting-tiktok/">TikTok school shooting challenge</a> have sent schools across the nation into lockdown. Dozens, possibly hundreds, of these threats are <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/10/24/1129919258/swatting-fake-school-shooter-calls-hoax-pattern">automated 911 calls from overseas</a>, but police have no choice but to respond.</p>
<p>People are so much on edge that a <a href="https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/popped-balloon-leads-shooting-scare-school-fair-vacaville/103-6df04ec8-21e1-4ff7-ab5d-779c89a46230">popped balloon</a> at one California school in September led to an active shooter response from police. The sound of a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSFjJJCx4bY">metal pipe banging</a> in August caused thousands of people to flee an Arkansas high school football stadium for fear of being shot. A <a href="https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/reports-of-shots-fired-at-winter-springs-high-school-inaccurate-sheriffs-office-says">loud bang from a chair being thrown</a> caused a code red lockdown and parents to rush to a Florida high school. </p>
<h2>A better way?</h2>
<p>The rising annual tally of school shootings has occurred despite enhanced school security in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/19/columbine-parkland-how-mass-shootings-changed-us-schools">two decades since the Columbine massacre</a>. Metal detectors, clear backpacks, bulletproof chalkboards, lockdown apps, automatic door locks and cameras have not stopped the rise in school shootings. In fact, the May 2022 mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, provides a case study in <a href="https://house.texas.gov/_media/pdf/committees/reports/87interim/Robb-Elementary-Investigative-Committee-Report.pdf">systemic failure</a> across the school safety enterprise.</p>
<p>Federal <a href="https://www.edweek.org/policy-politics/what-educators-need-to-know-about-senators-bipartisan-deal-on-guns-school-safety/2022/06">legislation</a> passed in the wake of Uvalde will provide districts with money to hire additional school social workers, or pay for better communication mechanisms in school buildings to address the <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2785799">warning signs</a> of violence missed in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/us/texas-school-shooting-deaths.html">dozens of high-profile attacks</a>.</p>
<p>It is aimed at better identifying and helping at-risk students before they turn to violence. However, another area that needs attention is students’ ready access to firearms.</p>
<p>Some school shooters, <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/25/uvalde-shooter-bought-gun-legally/">like the perpetrator in Uvalde</a>, are young adults old enough to get their guns legally from gun stores, prompting questions over whether some states need to reconsider a minimum age for firearms sales.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, most <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-school-shooters-get-their-guns-from-home-and-during-the-pandemic-the-number-of-firearms-in-households-with-teenagers-went-up-172951">school shooters get their guns from home</a>, making safe storage of firearms a public health priority.</p>
<p>But many children get their guns from the streets. Preventing weapons from getting into the hands of potential school shooters will require police and policymakers to devote resources toward cracking down on straw purchasers – those who buy firearms for someone else – and getting stolen weapons, <a href="https://www.bradyunited.org/fact-sheets/what-are-ghost-guns">unserialized ghost guns</a> and guns modified with <a href="https://www.thetrace.org/2022/03/auto-sear-gun-chip-glock-switch-automatic-conversion/">auto-sears</a> to make them fully automatic off the streets.</p>
<p>Such measures could be what it takes to stop the tragic normalization of school shootings.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192494/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Densley receives funding from the National Institute of Justice and the Bureau of Justice Assistance. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jillian Peterson receives funding from the National Institute of Justice and the Bureau of Justice Assistance</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Riedman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>On Oct. 24, while a teenage gunman was pleading guilty for a deadly school incident in Michigan, another school shooting was taking place in St. Louis.James Densley, Professor of Criminal Justice, Metropolitan State University David Riedman, Ph.D. student in Criminal Justice and Creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database, University of Central FloridaJillian Peterson, Professor of Criminal Justice, Hamline University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1844302022-06-08T19:31:07Z2022-06-08T19:31:07ZDid the assault weapons ban of 1994 bring down mass shootings? Here’s what the data tells us<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467568/original/file-20220607-13060-hyl21r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C44%2C2982%2C1913&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Clinton-era ban on assault weapons ushered in a period of fewer mass shooting deaths.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BillClintonwithJohnMagaw/b57abd54aafd4ab9a84d545e41181abf/photo?Query=assault%20weapons%20ban%201994&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=13&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Dennis Cook</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A spate of high-profile <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/mass-shooter-database/">mass shootings in the U.S.</a> in 2022 sparked calls for Congress to look at imposing a <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-make-prime-time-address-calling-gun-reform-legislation-rcna31665">ban on so-called assault weapons</a> – covering the types of guns used in both the recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-mass-shootings-are-happening-at-grocery-stores-13-of-shooters-are-motivated-by-racial-hatred-criminologists-find-183098">Buffalo grocery attack</a> and that on an <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/27/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-timeline/">elementary school in Uvalde, Texas</a>.</p>
<p>Such a prohibition has been in place before. As President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/06/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-gun-violence-in-america/">noted in his June 2, 2022, speech</a> addressing gun violence, almost three decades ago bipartisan support in Congress helped push through a federal assault weapons ban in 1994, as part of the <a href="https://www.ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/billfs.txt">Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act</a>. </p>
<p>That ban was limited – it covered only certain categories of semi-automatic weapons such as AR-15s and applied to a ban on sales only after the act was signed into law, allowing people to keep hold of weapons purchased before that date. And it also had in it a so-called “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/08/13/750656174/the-u-s-once-had-a-ban-on-assault-weapons-why-did-it-expire">sunset provision</a>” that allowed the ban to expire in 2004.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, the 10-year life span of that ban – with a clear beginning and end date – gives researchers the opportunity to compare what happened with mass shooting deaths before, during and after the prohibition was in place. Our group of injury epidemiologists and trauma surgeons did just that. In 2019, we published a population-based study <a href="https://journals.lww.com/jtrauma/Fulltext/2019/01000/Changes_in_US_mass_shooting_deaths_associated_with.2.aspx">analyzing the data</a> in a bid to evaluate the effect that the federal ban on assault weapons had on mass shootings, <a href="https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R44126.pdf">defined by the FBI</a> as a shooting with four or more fatalities, not including the shooter. Here’s what the data shows:</p>
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<p><strong>Before the 1994 ban:</strong> </p>
<p>From 1981 – the earliest year in our analysis – to the rollout of the assault weapons ban in 1994, the proportion of deaths in mass shootings in which an assault rifle was used was lower than it is today. </p>
<p>Yet in this earlier period, mass shooting deaths were steadily rising. Indeed, high-profile mass shootings involving assault rifles – such as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1989/01/18/us/five-children-killed-as-gunman-attacks-a-california-school.html">killing of five children in Stockton, California, in 1989</a> and a <a href="https://www.ktvu.com/news/101-california-street-shooting-sparked-change-in-gun-laws">1993 San Francisco office attack</a> that left eight victims dead – <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/04/biden-assault-weapons-ban/">provided the impetus</a> behind a push for a prohibition on some types of gun.</p>
<p><strong>During the 1994-2004 ban:</strong> </p>
<p>In the years after the assault weapons ban went into effect, the number of deaths from mass shootings fell, and the increase in the annual number of incidents slowed down. Even including 1999’s <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1990s/columbine-high-school-shootings">Columbine High School massacre</a> – the deadliest mass shooting during the period of the ban – the 1994 to 2004 period saw lower average annual rates of both mass shootings and deaths resulting from such incidents than before the ban’s inception.</p>
<p><strong>From 2004 onward:</strong></p>
<p>The data shows an almost immediate – and steep – rise in mass shooting deaths in the years after the assault weapons ban expired in 2004.</p>
<p>Breaking the data into absolute numbers, between 2004 and 2017 – the last year of our analysis – the average number of yearly deaths attributed to mass shootings was 25, compared with 5.3 during the 10-year tenure of the ban and 7.2 in the years leading up to the prohibition on assault weapons.</p>
<h2>Saving hundreds of lives</h2>
<p>We calculated that the risk of a person in the U.S. dying in a mass shooting was 70% lower during the period in which the assault weapons ban was active. The proportion of overall gun homicides resulting from mass shootings was also down, with nine fewer mass-shooting-related fatalities per 10,000 shooting deaths. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1044981284022484994"}"></div></p>
<p>Taking population trends into account, a model we created based on this data suggests that had the federal assault weapons ban been in place throughout the whole period of our study – that is, from 1981 through 2017 – it may have prevented 314 of the 448 mass shooting deaths that occurred during the years in which there was no ban.</p>
<p>And this almost certainly underestimates the total number of lives that could be saved. For our study, we chose only to include mass shooting incidents that were reported and agreed upon by all three of our selected data sources: the <a href="https://timelines.latimes.com/deadliest-shooting-rampages/">Los Angeles Times</a>, <a href="https://library.stanford.edu/projects/mass-shootings-america">Stanford University</a>, and <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/">Mother Jones magazine</a>. </p>
<p>Furthermore, for uniformity, we also chose to use the strict federal definition of an assault weapon – which may not include the entire spectrum of what many people may now consider to be assault weapons. </p>
<h2>Cause or correlation?</h2>
<p>It is also important to note that our analysis cannot definitively say that the assault weapons ban of 1994 caused a decrease in mass shootings, nor that its expiration in 2004 resulted in the growth of deadly incidents in the years since.</p>
<p>Many additional factors may contribute to the shifting frequency of these shootings, such as changes in domestic violence rates, political extremism, psychiatric illness, firearm availability and a surge in sales, and the recent rise in hate groups. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, according to our study, President Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/06/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-gun-violence-in-america/">claim that the rate of mass shootings</a> during the period of the assault weapons ban “went down” only for it to rise again after the law was allowed to expire in 2004 holds true.</p>
<p>As the U.S. looks toward a solution to the country’s epidemic of mass shootings, it is difficult to say conclusively that reinstating the assault weapons ban would have a profound impact, especially given the growth in sales in the 18 years in which Americans have been allowed to purchase and stockpile such weapons. But given that many of the high-profile mass shooters in recent years purchased their weapons <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/25/uvalde-shooter-bought-gun-legally/">less than one year</a> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/02/15/florida-shooting-suspect-bought-gun-legally-authorities-say/340606002/">before committing their acts</a>, the evidence suggests that it might.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184430/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. Klein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Analysis of the 10 years in which the US banned sales of assault weapons shows that it correlates with a drop in mass shooting deaths – a trend that reversed as soon as the ban expired.Michael J. Klein, Clinical Assistant Professor of Surgery, New York UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1842342022-06-08T12:33:51Z2022-06-08T12:33:51ZUS tragedies from guns have often – but not always – spurred political responses<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466819/original/file-20220602-24-57wa2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=365%2C88%2C8040%2C5003&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ade Osadolor-Hernandez of Students Demand Action speaks at a rally outside the U.S. Capitol in May 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/ade-osadolor-hernandez-of-students-demand-action-conducts-a-news-photo/1240934644?adppopup=true">Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The nationwide <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/31/texas-gun-control-laws-action-uvalde-school-shooting">call for stronger gun laws</a> in the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/06/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-gun-violence-in-america/">aftermath of mass shootings</a> in Buffalo, Uvalde and the over 200 other places where <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/06/02/mass-shootings-in-2022/">such tragedies took place</a> so far in 2022 is understandable.</p>
<p>It’s also predictable. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/shootings-new-york-gun-politics-judiciary-violence-18868cbb3652c9e1e92087bc5b7997d2">Whether efforts</a> to pass <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-mass-shootings-like-uvalde-national-gun-control-fails-but-states-often-loosen-gun-laws-183879">new federal or state laws</a> to <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-are-historical-and-psychological-reasons-why-the-legal-age-for-purchasing-assault-weapons-does-not-make-sense-184208">raise the minimum age</a> for buying semiautomatic rifles, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/05/senators-say-gun-deal-is-within-reach-without-bidens-wish-list/">expand background checks</a> and similar measures succeed or fail this time, they will follow a <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/02/19/566731477/chart-how-have-your-members-of-congress-voted-on-gun-bills">pattern in American politics</a> that traces back more than a century. </p>
<p>As I explain in my book “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-of-Gun-Control/Spitzer/p/book/9780367502843">The Politics of Gun Control</a>,” efforts to restrict and regulate firearms have followed the assassination of political leaders, crime waves and mass shootings since before World War I.</p>
<h2>A spate of shootings in 1910-1911</h2>
<p>In 1910, <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/an-assassins-bullet-took-three-years-to-kill-nyc-mayor-william-jay-gaynor-5707937/">New York City Mayor William J. Gaynor</a> boarded the steamship Kaiser Wilhelm der Grosse, moored at the dock in Hoboken, New Jersey. He was embarking on a monthlong European vacation.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467261/original/file-20220606-14-hbw85e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An elegant gentleman staggers after being shot" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467261/original/file-20220606-14-hbw85e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467261/original/file-20220606-14-hbw85e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467261/original/file-20220606-14-hbw85e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467261/original/file-20220606-14-hbw85e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467261/original/file-20220606-14-hbw85e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467261/original/file-20220606-14-hbw85e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467261/original/file-20220606-14-hbw85e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=942&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New York City mayor William Gaynor was shot by an assassin in 1910.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:New_York_Mayor_William_J._Gaynor_Moments_After_the_Assassination_Attempt.jpg">William Warnecke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The trip was interrupted when a <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/story-william-gaynor-nyc-mayor-gunned-article-1.802037">disgruntled former city employee shot him</a> in the neck with a concealed pistol. Gaynor, seriously wounded in the assassination attempt, died in 1913.</p>
<p>The incident heightened already growing calls for a new handgun law in New York state amid <a href="https://buffalonews.com/news/crime-was-rampant-and-routine-in-19th-century-new-york-city/article_bee1c130-9005-5c8e-9443-a3188c1bb889.html">rising gun violence</a>, especially in New York City.</p>
<p>In 1911, the noted novelist <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1911/01/24/issue.html">David Graham Phillips was shot</a> in Manhattan <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Gun-America-National-Contributions-American/dp/0837175305">by a man who turned his gun on himself</a>. Both died.</p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1911/01/30/archives/revolver-killings-fast-increasing-legislative-measure-to-be-urged.html">city coroner’s office reporting a sharp</a> increase in gun homicides, New York state lawmakers responded by enacting a law requiring permits to buy, own and carry handguns. Other states enacted similar pistol permit laws.</p>
<p>The U.S. <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2021/20-843">Supreme Court ruled on June 23, 2022</a>, that the 1911 measure <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf/20-843_7j80.pdf">violated the Second Amendment</a> – striking down <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-major-second-amendment-case-before-the-supreme-court-in-over-a-decade-could-topple-gun-restrictions-166703">strict limits on who can carry guns in New York</a>.</p>
<h2>Prohibition-era tumult</h2>
<p>Gangland violence tied to alcohol trafficking during Prohibition <a href="https://www.history.com/news/prohibition-organized-crime-al-capone">flared throughout the 1920s and early 1930s</a>. This mayhem led to <a href="https://lcp.law.duke.edu/article/gun-law-history-in-the-united-states-and-second-amendment-rights-spitzer-vol80-iss2/">many new laws restricting gun ownership</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466812/original/file-20220602-16-5p2hv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Photo of infamous outlaws Bonnie and Clyde, with her pointing a gun at him in jest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466812/original/file-20220602-16-5p2hv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466812/original/file-20220602-16-5p2hv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466812/original/file-20220602-16-5p2hv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466812/original/file-20220602-16-5p2hv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=748&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466812/original/file-20220602-16-5p2hv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=940&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466812/original/file-20220602-16-5p2hv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=940&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466812/original/file-20220602-16-5p2hv1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=940&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Authorities ambushed and killed the gunslinging outlaws Bonnie and Clyde in 1934.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/american-outlaw-bonnie-parker-playfully-points-a-shotgun-at-news-photo/514872400">Bettmann/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<p><a href="https://lcp.law.duke.edu/article/gun-law-history-in-the-united-states-and-second-amendment-rights-spitzer-vol80-iss2/">Most states banned</a> the fully automatic weapons gangsters favored. At least eight enacted laws <a href="https://lcp.law.duke.edu/article/gun-law-history-in-the-united-states-and-second-amendment-rights-spitzer-vol80-iss2/">restricting or barring semi-automatic firearms</a> too.</p>
<p>In 1933, shortly before his first presidential inauguration, Franklin D. Roosevelt <a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/fdr-escapes-assassination-in-miami">narrowly escaped an assassin’s bullet</a>. A year later, Congress passed the <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5845">National Firearms Act of 1934</a>. This <a href="https://law.jrank.org/pages/8725/National-Firearms-Act-1934.html">first significant federal gun law required</a> that those wanting to own the listed weapons be registered with the Treasury Department, fingerprinted and subject to a background check, plus pay a substantial fee to own fully automatic firearms, sawed-off shotguns, silencers and similar weapons.</p>
<p>One month before FDR signed that measure, Texas police gunned down the infamous gangster duo <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/bonnie-and-clyde">Bonnie Parker and Clyde Champion Barrow</a>. And the FBI killed <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/john-dillinger">John Dillinger</a>, another notorious outlaw, a month later.</p>
<h2>Assassinations and upheaval in the 1960s</h2>
<p>President John F. Kennedy’s assassination in 1963 led Congress to consider new gun measures. <a href="https://time.com/5429002/gun-control-act-history-1968/">Lawmakers held hearings</a>, but those efforts languished until the assassinations of the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy in 1968.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/americas-faulty-perception-crime-rates">Rising crime rates</a> and unrest in cities like <a href="https://detroithistorical.org/learn/encyclopedia-of-detroit/uprising-1967">Detroit</a>, <a href="http://crdl.usg.edu/events/watts_riots/?Welcome">Los Angeles</a>, <a href="https://www.chicagomag.com/city-life/april-2018/what-happened-during-the-west-side-riots-of-april-1968/">Chicago</a> and <a href="https://wamu.org/story/18/04/04/black-white-asian-three-reflections-1968-d-c-riots/">Washington</a> also increased the public’s safety concerns.</p>
<p>Congress responded by passing the <a href="https://www.justice.gov/archive/opd/AppendixC.htm">Gun Control Act of 1968</a>, which President <a href="https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-upon-signing-the-gun-control-act-1968">Lyndon B. Johnson signed</a> into law.</p>
<p>It restricted interstate gun shipment, barred gun sales to minors, felons and people deemed “<a href="https://www.justice.gov/archive/opd/AppendixC.htm">mentally defective</a>,” and strengthened licensing and record-keeping, among other measures.</p>
<p>The first modern gun control groups devoted exclusively to advocating for stronger regulations arose in the 1970s. Chief among them were <a href="https://www.bradyunited.org/history">Handgun Control, Inc.</a> and the <a href="https://www.csgv.org/about-us/">National Coalition to Ban Handguns</a>, later renamed the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. Both were formed in 1974.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467275/original/file-20220606-12-9z8rjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In the foreground, a balding white man signs a document. A group of middle-aged men in suits stand in the background, looking on." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467275/original/file-20220606-12-9z8rjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467275/original/file-20220606-12-9z8rjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467275/original/file-20220606-12-9z8rjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467275/original/file-20220606-12-9z8rjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467275/original/file-20220606-12-9z8rjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467275/original/file-20220606-12-9z8rjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467275/original/file-20220606-12-9z8rjl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=522&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When President Lyndon B. Johnson signed a major gun control law after the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy and his brother Robert, and Martin Luther King Jr.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/LBJSignsGunControlBill/4a62ee226358467a9cf32e7e2a899413/photo?Query=lbj%20signs%20gun%20control&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=2&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Aftermath of Reagan assassination attempt</h2>
<p>The foiled 1981 assassination attempt against Ronald Reagan left James Brady, his press secretary, disabled. Brady and his wife, Sarah, joined <a href="https://www.nndb.com/org/834/000115489/">Handgun Control, Inc.</a>, an advocacy group later renamed the <a href="https://www.bradyunited.org/history">Brady Campaign</a>. Their organization spearheaded the successful effort to enact a new federal law named after Brady <a href="https://vpc.org/publications/closing-the-gun-show-loophole/">requiring background checks</a> before most purchases of new guns.</p>
<p>In 1989, a man using an AK-47 assault rifle <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-20/stockton-school-shooting-atlanta">shot and killed</a> five children and wounded 29 others at an elementary school in Stockton, California. That same year, California became the first state to <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-20/stockton-school-shooting-atlanta">ban semi-automatic assault weapons</a> – military-style weapons designed to fire a round with each pull of the trigger. </p>
<p>After a multi-year effort, Congress finally enacted a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/understanding-1994-assault-weapons-ban-ended/story?id=65546858">10-year federal ban on assault weapons in 1994</a>. The law also limited ammunition magazines to those holding no more than 10 rounds – excluding those previously manufactured.</p>
<p>The law expired in 2004, after which <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/08/13/750656174/the-u-s-once-had-a-ban-on-assault-weapons-why-did-it-expire">mass shootings became more frequent</a>, with <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/03/24/bidens-claim-that-1994-assault-weapons-law-brought-down-mass-shootings/">assault weapons increasingly used by mass shooters</a>. Repeated <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/08/13/750656174/the-u-s-once-had-a-ban-on-assault-weapons-why-did-it-expire">efforts to renew the ban have failed</a>.</p>
<p>The gun control movement pressed to further strengthen gun regulations. Those efforts culminated in the passage of the <a href="https://www.atf.gov/rules-and-regulations/brady-law">Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act in 1993</a>, which <a href="https://www.atf.gov/rules-and-regulations/brady-law">amended the 1968 gun-control law</a> by establishing a national system of background checks and a five-day waiting period for handgun purchases.</p>
<p>The law called for eliminating that waiting period in 1998, replacing it with an instant background check system. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467289/original/file-20220606-22-zoz71p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An older couple shakes hands with a man in a wheelchair and a woman in a white dress." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467289/original/file-20220606-22-zoz71p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467289/original/file-20220606-22-zoz71p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467289/original/file-20220606-22-zoz71p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467289/original/file-20220606-22-zoz71p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467289/original/file-20220606-22-zoz71p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467289/original/file-20220606-22-zoz71p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467289/original/file-20220606-22-zoz71p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former President Ronald Reagan and his wife, Nancy, in red, greet his former press secretary James Brady and his wife, Sarah Brady, two prominent gun-control advocates.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/RonaldReaganandSarahBrady/4719895bcf3c417c9c01999d0cae334d/photo?Query=James%20brady%20gun&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=58&currentItemNo=53">AP Photo/Bob Daugherty</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Congress balks</h2>
<p>In the aftermath of the April 1999 <a href="https://apnews.com/article/list-of-deadliest-us-school-shootings-f25dad31e68c8acbdbcb952352df9249">Columbine High School</a> shooting, where two heavily armed students killed 12 of their peers and one teacher, and wounded 23 others in Littleton, Colorado, Congress considered several new gun measures.</p>
<p>The Senate narrowly <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1999/05/21/us/guns-schools-legislation-senate-votes-gun-curbs-hours-after-school-shooting.html">passed a bill</a> in 1999 to establish uniform background checks for all gun purchases, tougher penalties for juvenile gun offenders and requiring locking devices to be sold with new handgun purchases.</p>
<p>The more conservative House of Representatives defeated a much weaker gun bill due to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1999/06/19/us/guns-schools-overview-gun-control-bill-rejected-house-bipartisan-vote.html">opposition from</a> both lawmakers who wanted a stronger bill and others who opposed gun-control legislation of any kind. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-nra-evolved-from-backing-a-1934-ban-on-machine-guns-to-blocking-nearly-all-firearm-restrictions-today-183880">National Rifle Association</a>, formed in 1871 to improve the shooting and marksmanship skills of military-age men, was by this time the primary organization devoted to thwarting gun laws.</p>
<p>The NRA’s heavy lobbying <a href="https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-xpm-2013-feb-26-la-na-gunshow-loophole-20130226-story.html">contributed to that defeat</a>.</p>
<h2>Bloodshed in Connecticut, Florida and beyond</h2>
<p>The 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, where 20 children and six staff members were killed, spurred President Barack Obama and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/congress-texas-government-and-politics-gun-violence-shootings-d3485526acd9a04bcdd5b9186557f4cc">many lawmakers</a> to seek to tighten gun regulations.</p>
<p>The Senate in early 2013 considered measures to ban assault weapons, limit high-capacity ammunition magazines, require more background checks and improve record-keeping. Senators also considered several provisions to ease gun ownership restrictions by scaling back the background check waiting period, easing regulations on interstate weapons transport and handgun sales, and even a provision to make the use of gun records for creating a registry a felony.</p>
<p>All <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/18/us/politics/senate-obama-gun-control.html">failed in the Senate</a>. The House, likewise, <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/details?prodcode=R42987">didn’t pass any new gun-related legislation</a></p>
<p>Yet the Sandy Hook shooting mobilized three new nationwide gun groups: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.org/founders-projects/everytown-for-gun-safety/">Everytown for Gun Safety</a>, founded by former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/01/08/us/giffords-website/index.html">Americans for Responsible Solutions</a>, formed by former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who had been seriously wounded in a 2011 mass shooting, and her husband, Mark Kelly, who is now serving in the Senate, and <a href="https://momsdemandaction.org/about/">Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America</a>.</p>
<p>In 2016, the Giffords-Kelly organization combined with another gun safety group to become the Giffords organization. The Moms Demand Action <a href="https://www.everytown.org/press/mayors-against-illegal-guns-and-moms-demand-action-to-join-forces/">became part of Everytown</a> in 2014. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467292/original/file-20220606-18-whj93o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Former Representative and gun violence survivor Gabby Giffords outside the U.S. Supreme Court in Washington." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467292/original/file-20220606-18-whj93o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467292/original/file-20220606-18-whj93o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467292/original/file-20220606-18-whj93o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467292/original/file-20220606-18-whj93o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467292/original/file-20220606-18-whj93o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467292/original/file-20220606-18-whj93o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467292/original/file-20220606-18-whj93o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Rep. Gabby Giffords is a leading gun safety advocate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SupremeCourtGuns/417dbfc16d58405c84d7202b26bbb9ed/photo?Query=giffords%20gun&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=483&currentItemNo=44">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>After Parkland</h2>
<p>In 2018, a disgruntled student entered Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, armed with with an assault-style weapon. He killed 17 people and wounded 17 more.</p>
<p>Parkland students <a href="https://www.facinghistory.org/resource-library/10-questions-young-changemakers/how-parkland-students-pulled-massive-national-protest-only-5-weeks">spearheaded</a> their own nationwide gun safety effort under the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2019/02/14/one-year-after-the-parkland-shooting-is-the-neveragain-movement-on-track-to-succeed/">“#NeverAgain”</a> banner. Its “<a href="https://marchforourlives.com/">March For Our lives</a>” demonstrations mobilized thousands of students across the country, as did the organization <a href="https://studentsdemandaction.org/about/">Students Demand Action</a>, which went nationwide in 2018 and is affiliated with Everytown.</p>
<p>That year, 27 states, including Florida, <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/12/14/states-passed-67-new-gun-control-laws-in-2018">enacted over 60 new gun regulations</a>.</p>
<p>Still, Congress failed to act with the exception of passage of the modest <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-william-p-barr-releases-first-ever-semiannual-report-fix-nics-act">Fix NICS Act</a>. Passed with bipartisan support in 2018, the law improves data-gathering and reporting to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System for those seeking to buy guns. The NRA <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/03/congress-guns-fix-nics-baby-steps/556250/">didn’t oppose</a> the measure.</p>
<p>As this history attests, predicting the likelihood of congressional action now or in the near future is anyone’s guess.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated on June 23, 2022, to include a Supreme Court ruling.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Spitzer is a member of the National Rifle Association and the Giffords organization.</span></em></p>Congress tends to be most likely to act after an assassination or assassination attempt of historic proportions or mass shootings. But sometimes lawmakers do nothing beyond debate new measures.Robert Spitzer, Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of the Political Science Department, State University of New York CortlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1839092022-05-27T22:00:45Z2022-05-27T22:00:45ZArming teachers – an effective security measure or a false sense of security?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465810/original/file-20220527-23-pqd7cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=33%2C109%2C5573%2C3598&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Even trained police officers often miss their target during gunfights.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/firearm-instructor-and-student-royalty-free-image/157616700?adppopup=true">RichLegg / Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>In the wake of the <a href="https://www.statesman.com/story/news/nation/2022/05/24/texas-school-district-locked-down-active-shooter/9910214002/">mass shooting at Robb Elementary School</a> in Uvalde, Texas, some elected officials are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/05/25/harden-schools-arm-teachers-uvalde/">making calls anew</a> for
<a href="https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1529224340071297025">teachers to be armed and trained to use firearms</a> to protect the nation’s schools. To shine light on the matter, The Conversation reached out to <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=RrYCnwIAAAAJ&hl=en">Aimee Huff</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=6gjKzYoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Michelle Barnhart</a>, two Oregon State University scholars who have studied the ins and outs of putting guns in the hands of the nation’s teachers as a way to protect students.</em></p>
<h2>1. What does the public think about arming teachers?</h2>
<p>According to a 2021 poll, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/08/04/wide-differences-on-most-gun-policies-between-gun-owners-and-non-owners-but-also-some-agreement/">43% of Americans</a> supported policies that allow school personnel to carry guns in schools.</p>
<p>But if you take a closer look, you see that most of that support comes from Republicans and gun-owners. For instance, 66% of Republican respondents expressed support for such policies, versus just 24% of Democratic respondents. And 63% of gun owners supported allowing school personnel to carry guns, versus just 33% of non-gun owners. </p>
<p>The majority of <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/231224/teachers-prioritize-gun-control-prevent-shootings.aspx">teachers</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/survey-finds-wide-opposition-among-parents-to-arming-teachers/2018/07/16/03674e34-8927-11e8-8aea-86e88ae760d8_story.html">parents</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15388220.2020.1858424">students</a> oppose allowing teachers to carry guns.</p>
<p>The largest teachers unions, including the National Education Association, also oppose arming teachers, arguing that bringing more guns into schools “<a href="https://www.nea.org/about-nea/media-center/press-releases/nea-rejects-call-arm-teachers-wake-school-massacre-uvalde-texas">makes schools more dangerous and does nothing to shield our students and educators from gun violence</a>.”</p>
<p>These teachers unions <a href="https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/American%20Federation%20of%20Teachers%20(AFT)%20statement.pdf">advocate</a> a preventive approach that includes more gun regulations.</p>
<p>While the public is justifiably concerned with eliminating school shootings, there is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/texas-conservatives-armed-teachers-are-solution-school-shootings-2022-05-25/">disagreement</a> over the policies and actions that would be most effective. A 2021 study found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12538">70% of Americans</a> supported the idea of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12538">armed school resource officers</a> and law enforcement in schools, but only <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/npr-ipsos-poll-majority-americans-support-policies-aimed-keep-guns-out-hands-dangerous-individuals">41%</a> supported the idea of training teachers to carry guns in schools.</p>
<p>In our research on <a href="https://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/2552033/volumes/v47/NA-47">how Americans think about the rights and responsibilities related to armed self-defense</a>, we even find disagreement among conservative gun owners over how to best protect schoolchildren. Some advocate arming teachers, while other gun owners believe guns in schools ultimately make children less safe. These conservative opponents of arming teachers instead support fortifying the building’s design and features.</p>
<p>After the massacre in Uvalde, we are seeing renewed calls from politicians to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/05/25/harden-schools-arm-teachers-uvalde/">arm teachers</a> and provide them with <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article261779287.html">specialized training</a>.</p>
<p>However, amid <a href="https://apnews.com/article/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-44a7cfb990feaa6ffe482483df6e4683">conflicting reports</a> about whether police officers engaged the Robb Elementary School shooter, there are renewed questions about whether armed teachers would make a difference. Police have <a href="https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2022/05/27/police-mistakenly-blocked-classroom-during-texas-school-shooting-dps-says/9959949002/">acknowledged they didn’t enter the school</a> even as kids frantically dialed 911.</p>
<p>Given that there were also armed officers present at the <a href="https://extras.denverpost.com/news/col1123b.htm">Columbine</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/04/us/parkland-scot-peterson.html">Parkland</a> school massacres in 1999 and 2018, respectively, the public is understandably right to wonder whether armed teachers can effectively neutralize a shooter. Amid reports that trained and experienced police officers may have been unable or unwilling to intervene against the Uvalde shooter, it’s not clear whether teachers would be, either.</p>
<h2>2. What are the potential drawbacks of arming teachers?</h2>
<p>Arming teachers <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-idea-to-arm-teachers-may-miss-the-mark-92335">introduces risks to students and staff</a>, as well as school districts themselves. These include the risk of teachers accidentally shooting themselves or students and fellow staff. There are also moral and legal risks associated with improper or inaccurate defensive use of a firearm - even for teachers who have undertaken specialized firearms training.</p>
<p>One <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/public_information/RAND_FirearmEvaluation.pdf">study</a> found that highly trained police in gunfights <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/public_information/RAND_FirearmEvaluation.pdf">hit their target only 18% of the time</a>. Even if teachers, who would likely have less <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/19/teachers-utah-guns-school-shootings">training</a>, achieve the same accuracy, four or five of every six bullets fired by a teacher would hit something or someone other than the shooter. Further, a teacher responding with force to a shooter may be mistaken for the perpetrator by law enforcement or by armed colleagues. </p>
<p>Introducing guns to the school environment also poses <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/695762">everyday risks</a>. Armed teachers may unintentionally discharge their firearm. For instance, an armed police officer accidentally discharged his weapon in his office at a school in <a href="https://bit.ly/2BnC8zT">Alexandria, Virginia</a> in 2018. Guns can also fall into the wrong hands. <a href="https://www.annemergmed.com/article/S0196-0644(12)01408-4/fulltext">Research</a> on shootings that took place in hospital emergency rooms found that in 23% of the cases, the weapon used was a gun the perpetrator took from a hospital security guard.</p>
<p>Students could also access firearms that are improperly stored or mishandled. <a href="https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2017.304262">Improper storage</a> is a common problem among American gun owners. In a school setting, this has resulted in students finding a <a href="https://everytownresearch.org/report/arming-teachers-introduces-new-risks-into-schools/">teacher’s misplaced firearm</a>, sometimes taking it or reporting it to another school official. News reports show that guns carried into schools have <a href="https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/news/2018/10/24/student-substitute-teacher-back-flip-gun-falls-out">fallen out</a> of teachers’ clothing, and have been left in <a href="https://bit.ly/2G9jlfF">bathrooms</a> and <a href="https://bit.ly/2GtNfeb">locker rooms</a>. There have also been reports of students <a href="https://bit.ly/2V3psWX">stealing</a> guns from teachers.</p>
<p>Insurance companies also see concealed guns on school grounds as creating a <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-arming-teachers-20180226-story.html">heightened liability risk</a>.</p>
<p>Other <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/90024239">drawbacks</a> to arming teachers involve the learning environment. In particular, owing to structural racism and discriminatory school security policies, Black high school students are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0044118X211046637">less supportive</a> than white students of arming teachers – 16% versus 26% – and report feeling less safe if teachers are carrying firearms. </p>
<h2>3. What are the arguments for arming teachers?</h2>
<p>Proponents emphasize that teachers, as Americans, have a right to use firearms to defend themselves against violent crime, including a school shooter. Our <a href="https://www.acrwebsite.org/volumes/2552033/volumes/v47/NA-47">research</a> shows that some people interpret their right to armed self-defense as a moral obligation, and argue that teachers have both a right and a responsibility to use firearms to protect themselves and their students. </p>
<p>Parents who regularly carry handguns to protect themselves and their children may take comfort knowing that their child’s teacher could perform the role of protector at school. </p>
<p>In a school shooting, where lives can be saved or ended in a matter of seconds, some people may <a href="https://whyy.org/articles/shooting-people-is-deescalation-three-days-with-teachers-training-to-use-guns-in-schools/">feel more secure</a> believing a shooter would immediately meet armed resistance from a teacher without needing to wait for an armed school officer to respond. </p>
<h2>4. Have any school districts allowed teachers to arm themselves?</h2>
<p>Yes. Teachers may <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12538">carry guns at school</a> in districts in at least 19 states. The idea surfaced as a viable policy after the 1999 Columbine shooting, and gained momentum after the 2018 Parkland shooting. </p>
<p>The number of school districts that permit teachers to be armed is <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/439z7q/exclusive-how-parkland-created-a-rush-to-arm-teachers-and-school-staff-across-the-country">difficult</a> to ascertain. Policies <a href="https://gunsandamerica.org/story/19/03/22/with-no-national-standards-policies-for-arming-teachers-are-often-left-to-local-school-districts/">vary</a> across states. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/31/nyregion/guns-schools-ban-teachers-ny.html">New York</a> bars school districts from allowing teachers to carry guns, while <a href="https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/analysis/laws-allowing-armed-staff-in-K12-schools.html">Missouri and Montana</a> authorize teachers to carry firearms.</p>
<h2>5. What were the results?</h2>
<p>There are documented <a href="https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/great-mills-high-shooter-shot-by-school-officer-killed-self-police/44326/">incidents</a> of school staff using their firearm to neutralize a shooter. However, researchers <a href="https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy/analysis/laws-allowing-armed-staff-in-K12-schools.html">have not found evidence</a> that arming teachers increases school safety. Rather, arming teachers may contribute to a <a href="https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/vio.2018.0044">false sense of security</a> for teachers, students and the community.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183909/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Putting guns in the hands of schoolteachers is a popular idea among gun-owners and conservatives, but research suggests it may pose more problems than it solves.Aimee Dinnín Huff, Associate Professor, Marketing, Oregon State UniversityMichelle Barnhart, Associate Professor, Marketing, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1838122022-05-25T12:52:35Z2022-05-25T12:52:35ZWhat we know about mass school shootings in the US – and the gunmen who carry them out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465309/original/file-20220525-24-m0gxi3.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C25%2C5708%2C3802&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The archbishop of San Antonio, Gustavo Garcia-Siller, comforts families following a deadly school shooting at a school in Uvalde, Texas, on May 24, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CORRECTIONTexasSchoolShooting/5a865a4af618489aaefdaac9d0fee3b3/photo?Query=uvalde&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=92&currentItemNo=3">AP Photo/Dario Lopez-Mills</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1990s/columbine-high-school-shootings">Columbine High School massacre took place in 1999</a> it was seen as a watershed moment in the United States – the worst mass shooting at a school in the country’s history.</p>
<p>Now, it ranks fourth. The three school shootings to surpass its death toll of 13 – 12 students, one teacher – have all taken place within the last decade: 2012’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2012/12/us/sandy-hook-timeline/index.html">Sandy Hook Elementary attack</a>, in which a gunman killed 26 children and school staff; the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/parkland-shooting-one-year-later-congress-still-avoids-action-on-gun-control-111796">claimed the lives of 17 people</a>; and now the <a href="https://theconversation.com/19-children-2-adults-killed-in-texas-elementary-school-shooting-3-essential-reads-on-americas-relentless-gun-violence-183811">Robb Elementary School assault in Uvalde, Texas</a>, where on May 24, 2022, at least 19 children and two adults were murdered.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://www.metrostate.edu/about/directory/james-densley">are criminologists</a> <a href="https://www.hamline.edu/faculty-staff/jillian-peterson/">who study</a> <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/">the life histories</a> of public mass shooters in the U.S. As part of that research, we built <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/mass-shooter-database/">a comprehensive database</a> of mass public shootings using public data, with the shooters coded on over 200 different variables, including location and racial profile. For the purposes of our database, mass public shootings are defined as incidents in which four or more victims are murdered with at least one of those homicides taking place in a public location and with no connection to underlying criminal activity, such as gangs or drugs.</p>
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<p>Our database shows that since 1966, when our database timeline begins, there have been 13 such shootings at schools across the U.S – the first in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1989/01/18/us/five-children-killed-as-gunman-attacks-a-california-school.html">Stockton, California</a>, in 1989.</p>
<p>Four of those shootings – including the one at Robb Elementary School – involved a killing at another location, always a family member at a residence. The most recent perpetrator <a href="https://www.npr.org/live-updates/texas-school-shooting-2022-05-24">shot his grandmother</a> prior to going to the school in Uvalde.</p>
<p>The majority of mass school shootings were carried out by a lone gunman, with just two – Columbine and the <a href="https://www.kait8.com/2022/03/24/24-years-later-remembering-westside-school-shooting-victims/">1998 shooting at Westside School in Jonesboro</a>, Arkansas – carried out by two gunmen. In all, some 129 people were killed in the attacks and at least 166 victims injured.</p>
<p>The choice of “gunmen” to describe the perpetrators is accurate – all of the mass school shootings in our database were <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/mass-shooter-database/">carried out by men or boys</a>. And the average age of those involved in carrying out the attacks was 18. </p>
<p>This fits with the picture that has emerged of the <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/robb-elementary-school-gunman-salvador-ramos-bought-two-rifles-on-his-18th-birthday-texas-officials-say">shooter in the Robb Elementary School attack</a>. He turned 18 just days ago and reportedly <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article261766762.html">purchased two military-style weapons</a>. It is believed that the shooter used one miltary-style weapon in the attack, authorities said May 25, 2022.</p>
<p>Police have <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-05-24/texas-elementary-school-shooting">yet to release key information</a> on the shooter, including what motivated him to kill the children and adults at Robb Elementary School. The picture of the shooter that has emerged conforms to the profile we have built up from past perpetrators in some ways, but diverges in others.</p>
<p>We know that most school shooters have a connection to the school they target. Twelve of the 14 school shooters in our database prior to the most recent attack in Texas were either current or former students of the school. Any prior connection between the latest shooter and Robb Elementary School has not been released to the public.</p>
<p>Our research and <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/about-us/our-book/">dozens of interviews with incarcerated perpetrators of mass shootings</a> suggests that for most perpetrators, the mass shooting event is intended to be a final act. The majority of school mass shooters die in the attack. Of the 15 mass school shooters in our database, just seven were apprehended. The rest died on the scene, nearly all by suicide – the lone exception being the Robb Elementary shooter, who was shot dead by police.</p>
<p>And school shooters tend to preempt their attacks by leaving posts, messages or videos warning of their intent. </p>
<p>Inspired by past school shooters, some perpetrators are <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-quest-for-significance-gone-horribly-wrong-how-mass-shooters-pervert-a-universal-desire-to-make-a-difference-in-the-world-183199">seeking fame and notoriety</a>. However, most school shooters are motivated by a generalized anger. Their path to violence involves self-hate and despair turned outward at the world, and our research finds they often communicate their intent to do harm in advance as a final, desperate <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2785799">cry for help</a>. The key to stopping these tragedies is for society to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/accused-buffalo-mass-shooter-had-threatened-a-shooting-while-in-high-school-could-more-have-been-done-to-avert-the-tragedy-183455">alert to these warning signs</a> and act on them immediately. </p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article has been updated to correct the year of the 1998 shooting at Westside School in Jonesboro, Arkansas and amend the total number of those killed and injured in the school shootings.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183812/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Densley receives funding from the National Institute of Justice.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jillian Peterson receives funding from the National Institute of Justice</span></em></p>Of the 13 mass school shootings that have taken place in the US, the three most deadly occurred in the last decade. Data from these attacks helped criminologists build a profile of the gunmen.James Densley, Professor of Criminal Justice, Metropolitan State University Jillian Peterson, Professor of Criminal Justice, Hamline University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1756042022-04-13T19:10:00Z2022-04-13T19:10:00ZNews media heeding call to limit naming perpetrators in mass shootings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456646/original/file-20220406-16-grqk9p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C3494%2C2305&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">At times taking their lead from police, journalists are naming shooters less often and less prominently.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/collierville-police-chief-dale-lane-center-speaks-with-the-news-photo/1235455696">Brad Vest/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The day after a man opened fire at a Collierville, Tennessee, grocery store, killing one person and wounding 13 others before turning the gun on himself, local police conducted an impromptu news conference to identify the perpetrator.</p>
<p>But instead of saying the suspect’s name out loud on that sunny morning in September 2021, Collierville Police Lt. David Townsend <a href="https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/2021/09/24/collierville-kroger-shooting-tennessee-updates/5837930001/">held up a yellow piece of paper</a> with the name “Uk Thang” and the birth date “10-17-91.”</p>
<p>Nothing else was said about the suspect at the press conference, other than that he was a “third-party vendor” for the store. Later reporting determined he was the <a href="https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/news/2021/10/07/collierville-police-release-new-details-kroger-shooting-injured-15/6041845001/">franchise operator for the sushi counter</a> at the store, but he was not a Kroger employee.</p>
<p>That press conference has become typical of the way law enforcement has reacted after mass shootings: Never mention the suspect’s name or offer much information about the person. The goal is to encourage the news media to avoid using the perpetrator’s name and thus deprive the perpetrator of publicity. As my research has found, for the past 10 years the news media has followed suit by reducing the number of times the name of a mass shooter is reported.</p>
<p>Now that the suspect has been arrested, it will be interesting to see how the news media handles the reporting of the name of the alleged perpetrator of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/brooklyn-subway-shooting-nyc/index.html">April 12, 2022, Brooklyn subway shooting</a>. Many <a href="https://everytownresearch.org/maps/mass-shootings-in-america/">mass shootings end</a> with suspects turning the weapons on themselves or being killed by police. The Brooklyn suspect <a href="https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/day-2-brooklyn-subway-shooting-nyc/">initially evaded capture</a>, so police revealed the name as part of efforts to arrest him.</p>
<p>But is reducing the number of times the perpetrator’s name is used in news coverage in the public interest? It certainly diminishes the notoriety of the perpetrator and reduces any incentive to become famous. </p>
<p>Yet when the name is not used, <a href="https://www.poynter.org/ethics-trust/2019/not-naming-mass-shooters-much-is-now-the-norm/">other more relevant details</a>, such as the person’s motives and background, may also not be reported. </p>
<h2>Change came in 2012</h2>
<p>I got interested in the issue after several high-profile mass shooting perpetrators were not named out loud by police in the aftermath of attacks. And it seemed that the news media followed suit.</p>
<p>I analyzed how often perpetrators were named in news articles within a week of mass shootings between 1999 and 2021. </p>
<p>The research, not yet published, examined mass shooting news coverage starting with the Columbine High School killings in 1999 and ending with the <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/multiple-people-shot-indianapolis-fedex-facility-police/story?id=77109792">Indianapolis FedEx hub killings</a> in 2021. My findings confirmed what previous research had shown: The more deaths there were, the more news reports used the perpetrator’s name. That was true for the entire time period.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456654/original/file-20220406-14533-qzpt1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A police officer stands at a lectern facing people holding microphones and cameras" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456654/original/file-20220406-14533-qzpt1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456654/original/file-20220406-14533-qzpt1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456654/original/file-20220406-14533-qzpt1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456654/original/file-20220406-14533-qzpt1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456654/original/file-20220406-14533-qzpt1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456654/original/file-20220406-14533-qzpt1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456654/original/file-20220406-14533-qzpt1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When police use alleged mass shooters’ names less often, the media follow suit.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/orange-police-lt-jennifer-amat-address-the-media-during-a-news-photo/1310344238">Jeff Gritchen/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there was a turning point in 2012. Taking into consideration the number of people killed in a mass shooting, the number of times the news media used the perpetrators’ name in news reports started to decline.</p>
<p>After a July 2012 mass shooting at a <a href="https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-orlando-shooting-media-20160618-snap-story.html">Colorado movie theater</a>, relatives of the victims asked that the state’s governor not to mention the perpetrator’s name at a memorial service where the victims’ names would be read. Victim advocates and family members wanted to give no publicity to the killer out of concerns that <a href="https://nonotoriety.com">notoriety was one of the perpetrator’s motives</a>.</p>
<p>The governor’s public remarks referred to the shooter only as “Suspect A.” Later that year, the mass shooting of elementary school children and school staff in Newtown, Connecticut, shocked the nation. In that case, the name of the perpetrator in the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting was <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/disturbing-things-learned-today-sandy-hook-shooter-adam/story?id=27087140">widely circulated in news reports</a>.</p>
<p>The decision to avoid naming mass shooting perpetrators is based on the idea that people who engage in mass shooting attacks do it out of the desire for publicity. Certainly, there is anecdotal evidence that some mass shooters <a href="https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-orlando-shooting-media-20160618-snap-story.html">use the media to gain notoriety</a> from their attacks. The 2007 Virginia Tech shooter paused his killing spree to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna18195423">mail photos of himself</a> to NBC News. The <a href="https://www.hfa.ucsb.edu/news-entries/2019/12/1/moving-the-lens-from-shooter-to-victims-isla-vista-2014">2014 Isla Vista shooter</a> posted a manifesto on YouTube before he began killing.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456656/original/file-20220406-18668-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a police uniform stands at a bank of microphones" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456656/original/file-20220406-18668-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456656/original/file-20220406-18668-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456656/original/file-20220406-18668-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456656/original/file-20220406-18668-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456656/original/file-20220406-18668-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456656/original/file-20220406-18668-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456656/original/file-20220406-18668-bd5h6l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Police statements are the most common way journalists find out the identities of alleged mass shooters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/santa-clara-county-sheriff-laurie-smith-addresses-the-media-news-photo/1233120997">Philip Pacheco/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Is there a risk of not knowing?</h2>
<p>Certainly news organizations can dig deep into the backgrounds of mass shooters without ever naming the person. My research did not determine whether reducing the times a mass shooter is named was connected with reducing the amount of coverage of mass shooters’ background and motives. But the name is a concrete, basic piece of information about a person.</p>
<p>Supporters of <a href="https://www.dontnamethem.org">not naming perpetrators</a> make the case that the less written, spoken or known about the perpetrators, the better. It also eliminates any incentive for perpetrators to become famous from such horrific acts. Whether this trend of reducing the naming of mass shooters helps reduce mass shootings or perhaps makes them more likely is not something my research can determine.</p>
<p>Mass shootings happen for a host of reasons. <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/04/01/mass-shootings-georgia-colorado-expose-lax-gun-laws-amid-cries-reform/7061512002/">Lax gun laws</a> in the U.S. and the <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2019/08/08/one-third-of-mass-shootings-committed-by-people-with-mental-illness-study-says">lack of mental health services</a> are two of the most discussed reasons. Some say they are unavoidable random events that <a href="https://rockinst.org/issue-area/can-mass-shootings-be-stopped">cannot be stopped</a>.</p>
<p>It is not yet clear how much notoriety is a factor for potential shooters. But we do know that the news media is heeding the call to limit naming perpetrators in mass shootings.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas J. Hrach does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The more deaths there were, the more news reports used the perpetrator’s name. But something changed in 2012. The Brooklyn subway shooting may be an exception.Thomas J. Hrach, Associate Professor, Department of Journalism and Strategic Media, University of MemphisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1589162021-04-14T12:36:08Z2021-04-14T12:36:08ZKnoxville school shooting serves as stark reminder of a familiar – but preventable – threat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394890/original/file-20210413-15-whzt1h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C0%2C4872%2C3209&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People hold a vigil for the victims of the Saugus High School shooting in Santa Clarita, California, in 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-effected-by-the-saugus-high-school-shoot-hold-a-news-photo/1187735941?adppopup=true"> Hans Gutknecht/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/2020/10/8/21508138/parents-schools-covid-online-poll">most U.S. students having learned virtually in 2020</a> because of the pandemic, the nation logged a record low for school shootings. There were just <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/school-shootings-this-year-how-many-and-where/2020/01">three deaths</a> in a total of 10 school shootings in all of 2020.</p>
<p>This compares with <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/school-shootings-in-2019-how-many-and-where/2019/02">eight deaths</a> in 25 school shootings in 2019.</p>
<p>Now, as students return to schools for in-person instruction, the specter of school shootings is back. This was evidenced in the <a href="https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/crime/2021/04/12/police-respond-reports-shooting-near-austin-east-high-school/7194244002/">April 12 school shooting at the Austin-East Magnet High School in Knoxville, Tennessee</a>. The shooting left one student dead and a school resource officer injured. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lH0L_03Mtqo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A school shooting in Knoxville, Tennessee, has left one person dead.</span></figcaption>
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<p>As <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iS4HAEMAAAAJ">criminologists</a> and authors of a new book, “<a href="https://www.abramsbooks.com/product/violence-project_9781419752957/">The Violence Project: How to Stop A Mass Shooting Epidemic</a>,” we worry that gun violence at America’s schools may be even more likely in 2021 than before the pandemic because of a number of exacerbated risk factors for violence.</p>
<p>Young people’s <a href="https://namica.org/blog/impact-on-the-mental-health-of-students-during-covid-19/">mental health suffered</a> during the pandemic. And some youths were trapped in <a href="http://doi.org/10.1016/j.chiabu.2020.104709">homes where they endured abuse</a>. As we point out in “Trauma,” a chapter in our book, children who experience abuse in childhood are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/archpedi.1996.02170290056009">more likely to commit violence</a> later in life.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, there was a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2021/02/10/this-is-how-many-guns-were-sold-in-all-50-states/43371461/">record number of gun sales in 2020</a>, driven in part by the pandemic and civil unrest after the killing of George Floyd last summer. As a result, students may now have more access than ever to firearms.</p>
<h2>Ominous statistics</h2>
<p>The Knoxville school shooting on April 12 was the 37th school shooting of 2021, according to the Center for Homeland Defense and Security’s <a href="https://www.chds.us/ssdb/">K-12 School Shooting Database</a>. The database includes information on “each and every instance a gun is brandished, is fired, or a bullet hits school property for any reason, regardless of the number of victims, time of day, or day of week.” Year-to-date comparisons are complicated, because not all school districts went to remote or hybrid learning at the same time or to the same degree.</p>
<p>Taking a narrower view of shootings with injuries or deaths that occurred while school was in session, it was the fourth school shooting of 2021 and second <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/school-shootings-this-year-how-many-and-where/2021/03">fatal shooting</a> of the year.</p>
<p>The phrase “school shooting” typically is reserved for mass casualty events like the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Columbine-High-School-shootings">1999 Columbine High School shooting</a>, the 2012 <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Newtown-shootings-of-2012">Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting</a> and the 2018 <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/years-parkland-school-shooting-trial-limbo-75827501">Parkland high school shooting</a>. But talking about school shootings only when multiple people die in them minimizes <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/children-under-fire-john-woodrow-cox?variant=32126593138722">the great harm</a> guns cause in schools and to children all the time.</p>
<h2>Response in the UK</h2>
<p>Twenty-five years ago, in March 1996, a gunman walked into Scotland’s Dunblane Primary School and opened fire, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Dunblane-school-massacre">killing 16 children and a teacher</a>. A successful campaign for gun regulation followed, laws were changed, <a href="https://www.theweek.co.uk/100333/uk-gun-laws-who-can-own-a-firearm">handguns were banned</a> and the United Kingdom <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/how-1996-dunblane-massacre-pushed-uk-enact-stricter-gun-laws-180977221/">hasn’t had a school shooting since</a>. </p>
<p>Yet in America, a gun is brandished on one K-12 school campus or another every two to three days. From <a href="https://www.chds.us/ssdb/are-school-shootings-becoming-more-frequent-we-ran-the-numbers/">2015 to 2018</a>, there was an “<a href="https://www.fbi.gov/about/partnerships/office-of-partner-engagement/active-shooter-resources">active shooter</a>” – someone actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area – on U.S. school property <a href="https://www.chds.us/ssdb/are-school-shootings-becoming-more-frequent-we-ran-the-numbers/">every 77 days</a>. Since 1970, over <a href="https://www.chds.us/ssdb/data-map/">1,600 school shootings have claimed the lives of 599 people</a> as of April 13, 2021.</p>
<p>Before the pandemic, many parents had become resigned to sending their children to schools that have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2021/03/us/school-shooting-lockdown-drills/">active shooter drills</a> to rehearse for a real shooting incident. Some even bought <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/bulletproof-backpacks-wouldn-t-have-saved-anyone-recent-shootings-n1042801">bulletproof backpacks</a> for their children.</p>
<h2>Searching for solutions</h2>
<p>Our research on <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-shooters-usually-show-these-signs-of-distress-long-before-they-open-fire-our-database-shows-111242">school shootings</a>, consistent with <a href="https://www.secretservice.gov/sites/default/files/reports/2021-03/USSS%20Averting%20Targeted%20School%20Violence.2021.03.pdf">research from the U.S. Secret Service</a>, shows that schools can do more than just accept an America where “back to school” means back to school shootings, even without an act of Congress to potentially stop gun violence. We’ve spent the last four years examining the lives of school shooters, searching for solutions. Our findings are freely available in a <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/mass-shooter-database/">database we created</a> with a grant from the U.S. Department of Justice.</p>
<p>The data shows, importantly, that school shooters tend to be current or former students of the school. They are almost always in crisis of some sort before their attack, indicated by a noticeable change in behavior from usual. Often this manifests in suicidal thoughts. School shooters also tend to leak their plans for violence in advance, mostly to their peers, often via social media.</p>
<p>And school shooters usually get their guns from family and friends who failed to store them safely and securely. It’s unclear at this point how well the Knoxville shooter fits this profile, but these findings point to important avenues for school shooting prevention.</p>
<h2>Beyond school police</h2>
<p>First, if school shooters are nearly always students of the school, then educators and others who work with them may need to work harder to find ways to identify and counsel them long before they ever pick up a gun. The existing US$3 billion “<a href="https://nyupress.org/9780814748206/homeroom-security/">homeroom security</a>” industry is predicated on <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2019/09/06/fruitport-high-school-michigan-active-shooters/2213687001/">putting up walls</a> to keep active shooters out, rather than building bridges to keep actual students connected. Some school districts rely on school resource officers, or SROs, to police student problems to such an extent that the <a href="https://www.aclu.org/issues/juvenile-justice/school-prison-pipeline/cops-and-no-counselors">ACLU</a> estimates that millions of students are in schools with police but no counselors, school psychologists or social workers.</p>
<p>SROs have intervened in school shootings in the past, including the one in Knoxville on April 12, but we believe they are yet another example of society’s <a href="https://www.versobooks.com/books/2426-the-end-of-policing">overreliance</a> on police to solve systemic social problems, from mental illness to homelessness to drug abuse. Research shows the presence of police officers in schools <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-017-9412-8">feeds a larger social problem</a> known as the “school-to-prison pipeline,” in which even minor infractions at school are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12512">handled by the criminal justice system</a>.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.37394">February 2021 study</a>,
we examined 133 attempted and completed mass school shootings from 1980 to 2019 and, controlling for other factors like the school size, the number of shooters, and the number and type of firearms, we found that the death rate for victims – that is, the perpetrator being excluded – was three times greater in school shootings with armed guards on the scene.</p>
<p>Research has shown that the presence of officers’ weapons increases aggression – it is known as the “<a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/get-psyched/201301/the-weapons-effect">weapons effect</a>.” This effect may be further exacerbated by the fact that many <a href="http://jaapl.org/content/jaapl/36/4/544.full.pdf">school shooters are suicidal</a> and may intend to provoke law enforcement into shooting them. This occurrence is known as “suicide by cop.”</p>
<h2>Toward a future without school shootings</h2>
<p>Even if many lawmakers would like to see more guns in schools <a href="https://apnews.com/article/2cfba6696074f0913e09e2ed5adcc593">through the arming of teachers</a>, we feel it is not a solution. This logic runs counter to our research, which shows that warm and welcoming <a href="https://www.naesp.org/sites/default/files/Framework%20for%20Safe%20and%20Successful%20School%20Environments_FINAL_0.pdf">school environments</a> where all students feel safe and supported are the foundation upon which good school security is built. </p>
<p>In our view, counselors, social workers, peer support networks and small class sizes are what schools need most right now to <a href="https://www.nasponline.org/about-school-psychology/media-room/press-releases/preventing-mass-violence-requires-access-to-mental-health-services-and-reduced-inappropriate-access-to-firearms">prevent violence after a pandemic</a>. They can emphasize strong and trusting <a href="https://safesupportivelearning.ed.gov/topic-research/engagement/relationships">relationships</a> between students and adults and teach students empathy and alternatives to violence as a means of dispute resolution.</p>
<p>School personnel and students need training to identify a student in crisis and describe how <a href="https://www.edweek.org/leadership/more-schools-are-using-anonymous-tip-lines-to-thwart-violence-do-they-work/2018/08">to report</a> something they see or hear indicative of violent intent. Educators need new tools to help identify students before they become a threat. This means not unduly punishing students in crisis with expulsion or <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article217015060.html">criminal charges</a> – things that could escalate the crisis or any grievance with the institution.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 100,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletter to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=100Ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>And as students go back to school, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/how-moms-are-quietly-passing-gun-safety-policy-through-school-n1132891">safe gun storage at home</a> is a paramount.</p>
<p>School shootings are not inevitable. They’re preventable. We believe the steps outlined above help promote school security while safeguarding student well-being.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158916/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Densley has received funding from the National Institute of Justice. He is affiliated with The Violence Project.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jillian Peterson receives funding from the National Institute of Justice. She is affiliated with The Violence Project. </span></em></p>The pandemic largely gave America a reprieve from school shootings. Two criminologists say gun violence could return to America’s schools worse than before as in-person classes resume.James Densley, Professor of Criminal Justice, Metropolitan State University Jillian Peterson, Professor of Criminal Justice, Hamline University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1227052019-10-16T11:28:06Z2019-10-16T11:28:06ZKeeping students safe is a growth industry struggling to fulfill its mission<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295884/original/file-20191007-121071-hndfaz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Public schools around the nation, like this one in Beverly Hills, California, are spending more on security.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/School-Shootings-Security-Technology/efedd1434f7d4d86bca805bfba5226fb/3/0">AP Photo/Richard Vogel</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the 25 years I’ve spent working as a school psychologist and <a href="https://carlsoj.wordpress.com/">professor of school psychology</a>, I’ve never seen so much federal, state and local money spent to “<a href="https://www.the74million.org/article/inside-the-3-billion-school-security-industry-companies-market-sophisticated-technology-to-harden-campuses-but-will-it-make-us-safe/">harden</a>” school buildings and campuses.</p>
<p>The term encompasses a wide array of steps being taken to keep students safe amid increasingly <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180419131025.htm">frequent mass shootings</a>. Examples include <a href="https://educationvotes.nea.org/2019/04/25/lawmakers-in-these-6-states-are-pushing-to-arm-teachers/">arming teachers</a>, conducting <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=54">active-shooter drills</a> and installing <a href="https://www.channel3000.com/news/schools-working-with-police-allowing-them-to-tap-into-live-surveillance-cameras-during-emergencies/1130707718">surveillance systems</a>.</p>
<p>It’s a booming business that by 2017 had become an estimated US<a href="https://technology.ihs.com/600401/school-security-systems-industry-us-market-overview">$2.7 billion</a> industry with about $1.5 billion directed toward K-12 school safety. </p>
<p>But based on my <a href="https://saidoosy.wixsite.com/schoolsafety">research on school safety practices</a>, I believe that – in addition to doing more to regulate access to <a href="https://www.axios.com/deadliest-mass-shootings-common-4211bafd-da85-41d4-b3b2-b51ff61e7c86.html">semi-automatic weapons</a> – what’s actually needed is more funding for <a href="https://www.future-ed.org/tapping-medicaid-to-address-mental-health-at-school/">mental health services in communities and schools</a> to help heed and address <a href="https://wjla.com/news/nation-world/timeline-of-red-flags-leading-up-to-school-shooting">warning signs</a> before someone becomes violent.</p>
<p><iframe id="DDwRu" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/DDwRu/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>New architecture</h2>
<p>With the federal government’s 2018 commitment to spend <a href="https://www2.ed.gov/documents/school-safety/school-safety-report.pdf">$1 billion</a> over the next decade and states like Florida allocating <a href="http://www.fldoe.org/newsroom/latest-news/education-commissioner-corcoran-applauds-five-new-counties-for-implementing-the-guardian-program.stml">hundreds of millions more</a> in 2019 for school safety initiatives, changes are happening everywhere. </p>
<p>Most money to date has been focused on changes to school buildings. </p>
<p>In Fruitport, Michigan, the local school district <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2019/09/06/fruitport-high-school-michigan-active-shooters/2213687001/">spent $48 million to improve school safety</a> through a high school renovation.</p>
<p>The money is paying for curved hallways to reduce a shooter’s line of sight, concrete “<a href="https://www.michiganradio.org/post/how-one-high-school-renovating-its-building-impede-school-shooters">wing walls</a>” that jut out a few feet to create a physical space for people to seek cover from gun shots, <a href="https://www.educationdive.com/news/6-takeaways-from-the-redesign-of-sandy-hook-elementary/539834/">impact-resistant windows</a> to protect students and staff from glass shattered by gunfire and technology that makes it possible to <a href="https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/education/local_schools/gunshot-detection-technology-coming-to-wisconsin-schools/article_ca9769de-75c1-58d8-8907-0759bc680f93.html">instantly lock classroom doors</a> when someone perceives a threat.</p>
<p>Likewise, Connecticut gave Newtown a $50 million grant to help it build a <a href="https://www.curbed.com/2018/2/22/17042004/sandy-hook-elementary-school-design-security-safety">new Sandy Hook Elementary School</a> to replace the one that was demolished after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/sandy-hook-lawsuit-court-victory-opens-crack-in-gun-maker-immunity-shield-113636">2012 mass shooting</a> that killed 20 children and six adults at the school.</p>
<p>The new building’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/10/10/we-want-protect-kids-that-doesnt-mean-making-our-schools-into-fortresses/">automatically locking classroom doors</a> and other safety features meet the <a href="https://portal.ct.gov/DAS/SSIC/School-Safety-Infrastructure-Council">state’s beefed-up guidelines</a>, which in turn were heavily influenced by the Department of Homeland Security’s <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/st/bips07_428_schools.pdf">recommended standards</a>.</p>
<p>In Oregon, the Bend-La Pine school district is spending millions to build “<a href="https://www.bendsource.com/bend/building-upgrades-take-shape-from-bond-money/Content?oid=11037585">safety vestibules</a>” – locking entryways that can slow or prevent access through the front door.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295888/original/file-20191007-121060-3280r2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295888/original/file-20191007-121060-3280r2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295888/original/file-20191007-121060-3280r2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295888/original/file-20191007-121060-3280r2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295888/original/file-20191007-121060-3280r2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295888/original/file-20191007-121060-3280r2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295888/original/file-20191007-121060-3280r2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295888/original/file-20191007-121060-3280r2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A year after the 2018 Parkland mass shooting, people gathered to mourn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Marjory-Stoneman-Douglas-HS-Students-And-Parent-/e7419ab829ab4aa494f584e9567aa0b0/3/0">mpi04/MediaPunch via AP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More surveillance</h2>
<p>Two decades after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/colorado-shooting-eerily-recalls-columbine-massacre-116786">Columbine High School shooting</a>, video surveillance systems have become the norm. The share of <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2018/2018036.pdf">public schools with security cameras</a> shot up from one in five in the 1999-2000 school year to four in five by the 2015-2016 school year.</p>
<p>Gunshot-detection technology is spreading too. In Wisconsin, the <a href="https://dailyreporter.com/2018/06/25/gunshot-detection-technology-coming-to-wisconsin-schools/">Kenosha School District used $384,000 in state funds</a> to install a system that instantly alerts the police following gunshots, turns on video surveillance systems and triggers automatic door locks. </p>
<p>And many states are making <a href="https://c0arw235.caspio.com/dp/b7f93000ca98a2eae2374845afef">arming teachers and other school personnel</a> a priority. Nineteen states let anyone with permission from school authorities to have <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/education/school-safety-guns-in-schools.aspx">firearms on school grounds</a>.</p>
<p>Florida recently became the <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/education/school-safety-guns-in-schools.aspx">sixth state</a>, joining Missouri, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas, where teachers who meet certain conditions may carry weapons.</p>
<p>Meanwhile nearly <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/04/18/a-majority-of-u-s-teens-fear-a-shooting-could-happen-at-their-school-and-most-parents-share-their-concern/">two-thirds of U.S. parents</a> say they are at least somewhat worried about the possibility of gun violence at their child’s school. These fearful moms and dads are buying their children <a href="https://www.mcall.com/business/mc-biz-bulletproof-backpacks-landing-on-back-to-school-lists-20190812-g3esyc5cu5epbdjxrldecber3e-story.html">bulletproof backpacks</a> and <a href="http://www.elitesterlingsecurity.com/product/mc-kids-ballistic-puffer-vest/">vests</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295886/original/file-20191007-121051-1pci44k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295886/original/file-20191007-121051-1pci44k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/295886/original/file-20191007-121051-1pci44k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295886/original/file-20191007-121051-1pci44k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295886/original/file-20191007-121051-1pci44k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295886/original/file-20191007-121051-1pci44k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295886/original/file-20191007-121051-1pci44k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/295886/original/file-20191007-121051-1pci44k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sales of bulletproof backpacks rise after mass shootings.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Bullet-resistant-Backpacks/a2f4a3a4aac04dacab434bfa8e586701/7/0">AP Photo/Teresa Crawford</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The limits</h2>
<p>I’m leading a <a href="https://saidoosy.wixsite.com/schoolsafety">team of researchers</a> that’s studying whether these efforts make a difference. Through our close examination of the literature and affirmed by a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1089/vio.2018.0044">soon-to-be published study</a>, there is no evidence that architectural and equipment hardening measures prevent or reduce firearm violence in schools. </p>
<p>At the same time, we’re growing more concerned that there is no way to protect all school spaces, including the portable classrooms <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=94">used extensively across the country</a> to relieve overcrowding, and open spaces like playgrounds and football fields. </p>
<p>That became more evident when <a href="https://www.apnews.com/737905772b744f60bdc1afd07448d646">six people</a> were shot and others were injured <a href="https://www.wkrg.com/mobile-county/shooting-at-ladd-peebles-stadium-after-hs-football-game">inside a high school stadium in Alabama</a> as the 2019-2020 school year got underway. </p>
<p>In addition, the presence of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2018.12.006">armed school resource officers</a> does not appear to be associated with a reduction in shooting severity, according to a study released in the summer of 2019. </p>
<p>In part, that study looked at the deaths of 17 people at <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/06/us/parkland-scot-peterson-charges/index.html">Marjory Stoneman Douglas</a> High School in Parkland, Florida, in 2018. The officer on hand was subsequently <a href="https://www.local10.com/news/parkland-school-shooting/scot-peterson-files-petition-to-have-charges-dropped">criminally charged</a> because he didn’t confront the shooter. </p>
<p>The school’s surveillance systems fell short too. Video of the incident unfolding was on a <a href="https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/Security-Camera-Delays-Misled-Officers-During-Parkland-School-Tragedy-Police-474833083.html">20-minute delay</a>. </p>
<p>In some cases, security measures don’t only fail to perform – they backfire. There have been at least <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/05/gun-control-advocates-schools-1319611">60 incidents of firearm mishandling</a> in schools in the past five years, most of which didn’t result in injuries. And the prospect of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2018/08/23/surveillance-in-schools-where-is-this-taking-us/#38055c64bee7">monitoring everyone in schools in real-time</a> with artificial intelligence analytics to infer the meaning of movements and behavior is <a href="https://thenextweb.com/artificial-intelligence/2019/07/23/why-us-public-schools-creepy-use-of-surveillance-ai-should-frighten-you/">stirring debates</a>, with critics raising privacy concerns.</p>
<h2>What else can be done</h2>
<p>In my view, the need to focus on human behavior and what’s known about the thoughts, feelings and actions of school shooters deserves more attention and funding.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.secretservice.gov/data/protection/ntac/ssi_final_report.pdf">2002 Secret Service analysis of 37 school shooting incidents</a> found that 98% of shooters perceived a major loss prior to the attack, 78% had a history of suicide attempts or suicidal thoughts, 73% had a prior grievance against at least one person they were targeting and 71% reported feeling bullied, threatened or were previously injured by others. </p>
<p>The government agency’s subsequent <a href="https://www.secretservice.gov/protection/ntac/">2019 report on 27 attacks</a>, which included many that took place outside of schools, and sociologist Kathryn Farr’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12147-017-9203-z">research on 31 school shooters</a>, published in 2018, had similar findings to the original Secret Service analysis.</p>
<p>There are two other kinds of hardening approaches, which my team is calling procedural and psychological. Psychological approaches emphasize the behavioral characteristics of people who may wish to harm themselves or others. </p>
<p>Procedural measures include requiring all visitors to sign in and out of school buildings and establishing clear protocols to follow during active shooter situations. <a href="https://www.nasponline.org/resources-and-publications/resources-and-podcasts/school-climate-safety-and-crisis/systems-level-prevention/best-practice-considerations-for-schools-in-active-shooter-and-other-armed-assailant-drills">Active shooter and lockdown drills</a> are another example, but a recent study shows these could be actually <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2015-58633-005?doi=1">making students feel less safe</a>. </p>
<p>In addition, apps like <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/ok2say">Ok2Say</a> or <a href="https://getfortifyfl.com/">Fortify FL</a> make it easier to anonymously report suspicious or threatening behavior. Tips from the public may have staved off <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/21/us/mass-shooting-threats-tuesday/index.html">numerous mass shootings, including in schools</a>, in August 2019. </p>
<p>On top of doing more to <a href="https://www.nasponline.org/resources-and-publications/resources-and-podcasts/mental-health/school-psychology-and-mental-health/school-based-mental-health-services">promote mental wellness</a>, promising psychological approaches include assembling school <a href="https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/18_0711_USSS_NTAC-Enhancing-School-Safety-Brief.pdf">threat assessment teams</a>, updating <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/lindadarlinghammond/2019/05/16/want-safe-schools-start-with-research-based-school-discipline-policies/#22bd9ba46701">discipline policies</a> and improving both the <a href="https://www.apa.org/education/k12/relationships">relationships between teachers and students</a> and <a href="https://www.nasponline.org/resources-and-publications/resources-and-podcasts/school-climate-safety-and-crisis/systems-level-prevention/guidance-for-measuring-and-using-school-climate-data">school cultures overall</a>. </p>
<p>These options generally costs less than renovating buildings or installing new surveillance equipment and may require only shifting some <a href="https://edwp.educ.msu.edu/new-educator/2013/faculty-perspective-tragedy-at-sandy-hook/">staff responsibilities</a>. We’re finding evidence that they work to get students with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pits.22194">homicidal or suicidal tendencies</a> to get the the supports they need and have few downsides.</p>
<p>As school fortification has grown, so too has the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6803a1.htm">number of deaths</a> from <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-security-measures-wont-stop-school-shootings-90738">shootings on school grounds</a>. There were a total of <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/08/us/school-shootings-us-2019-trnd/index.html">22 gunfire incidents on school grounds</a> in the first six and a half months of 2019, CNN reported, in which people were injured or killed.</p>
<p>Even amid the current rush to spend more on armed guards and gun-defensive architecture, I don’t believe changes in school architecture, adding armed guards and bulking up on surveillance technology on their own can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15564886.2017.1307293">prevent future school shootings</a>. I support a more comprehensive approach like the one <a href="https://www.nasponline.org/resources-and-publications/resources-and-podcasts/school-climate-safety-and-crisis/systems-level-prevention/a-framework-for-safe-and-successful-schools">an interdisciplinary group of school safety experts</a> has proposed.</p>
<p>[ <em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John S. Carlson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Efforts to ‘harden’ school buildings could distract from the need to focus on human behavior and what’s known about school shooters.John S. Carlson, Professor of School Psychology, Licensed Psychologist, Health Service Psychologist, Nationally Certified School Psychologist, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1167862019-05-09T10:43:54Z2019-05-09T10:43:54ZColorado shooting eerily recalls Columbine massacre<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/273380/original/file-20190508-183096-bq86wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Parents gather in a circle to pray at a recreation center where students were reunited with their parents after a shooting at a suburban Denver middle school May 7.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-School-Shooting-Colorado/b04c65bf75054099b71e28618547a3cf/22/0">David Zalubowski/AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Columbine. Contagion. Clusters.</p>
<p>These are the culprits to consider as the nation reels from yet <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/07/us/colorado-school-shooting.html">another school shooting</a>. </p>
<p>This one took place on May 7 at the STEM School Highlands Ranch – just a few miles from <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1990s/columbine-high-school-shootings">Columbine High School</a>. The high school was the site of a shooting in 1999, which – at the time – was the nation’s worst school shooting in history. It also took place just a couple of weeks after the 20-year anniversary of the Columbine shooting.</p>
<p>One teenager was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/07/us/colorado-school-shooting.html">killed</a> and eight others injured after two students allegedly opened fire at the STEM School Highlands Ranch.</p>
<p>The shooting is eerily reminiscent of the Columbine tragedy. Similarities between the two shootings include the geography and the fact that not one, but two, school insiders are accused of carrying it out “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/07/us/colorado-school-shooting.html">deep inside the school</a>.” Columbine is the one school shooting that all others are measured against, and it has become a script for a new form of violence in schools.</p>
<p>We make that argument as researchers – a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hoHQX8MAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">psychologist</a> and a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iS4HAEMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">sociologist</a> – who have been studying mass public shootings as <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/mass-shooters">part of a grant</a> from the U.S. Department of Justice.</p>
<p>Since the 1999 tragedy at Columbine High School, we identified six mass shootings and 40 <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/active-shooter-study-2000-2013-1.pdf/view">active shooter</a> incidents at elementary, middle or high schools in the United States. Mass shootings are <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44126.pdf">defined by the FBI</a> as an event in which four or more victims died by gunfire. </p>
<p>In 20 – or nearly half – of those 46 school shootings, the perpetrator purposely used Columbine as a model.</p>
<p>Columbine’s influence continues until this day. On April 17, just three days ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Columbine shooting, authorities <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/columbine-related-threat-by-armed-woman-shuts-denver-area-schools-11555501233">closed schools across Colorado</a> due to a credible threat of a woman armed with a shotgun and who was “<a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/16/jefferson-county-schools-lockout/">infatuated with Columbine</a>.” The 18-year-old Florida woman was reportedly <a href="https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nationworld/fl-ne-columbine-lockdown-20190416-story.html">found dead in Colorado</a> later in the day from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound.</p>
<h2>The ties that bind to Columbine</h2>
<p>In our study of school shootings, we only looked at cases where a gun was fired on campus, following the practice of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/local/school-shootings-database/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c542ac9200c5">The Washington Post’s</a> database on school shootings. Had we included <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/10/columbine-effect-mass-shootings-copycat-data/">foiled plots</a>, the number would be <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/columbine-shootings-grim-legacy-50-school-attacks-plots/story?id=26007119">significantly higher</a>.</p>
<p>Several school shooters in our study were <a href="https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/a-dark-day-for-fort-gibson-school-shooting-now-years/article_0f51d05b-999c-575f-bff6-6465404a9d24.html">fascinated with Columbine</a> and <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/10/21/at-least-2-dead-in-nevada-school-shooting">researched</a> the massacre before their own. This includes the <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/cruz-researched-columbine-massacre-parkland-shooting-article-1.3953545">Parkland shooter</a>, a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/12/12/jesse-osborne-pleads-guilty-south-carolina-school-shooting/2297747002/">14-year-old</a> who aspired to be “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/12/12/jesse-osborne-pleads-guilty-south-carolina-school-shooting/2297747002/">the youngest mass murderer</a>,” and a <a href="https://www.pantagraph.com/news/th-grader-detailed-shooting-in-deadly-diary/article_02d99158-90ac-55b5-9ec4-b56fab93b49f.html">15-year-old</a> who shot at his teacher after she <a href="https://www.pantagraph.com/news/th-grader-detailed-shooting-in-deadly-diary/article_02d99158-90ac-55b5-9ec4-b56fab93b49f.html">refused to praise Marilyn Manson</a>, the rock singer who was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/music/2017/sep/21/columbine-destroyed-my-entire-career-marilyn-manson-on-the-perils-of-being-the-lord-of-darkness">erroneously blamed</a> for inspiring the Columbine killers.</p>
<p>Prior perpetrators chose the anniversary of Columbine to commit their shootings, including <a href="https://www.rockdalenewtoncitizen.com/news/local/tj-solomon-heritage-high-school-shooter-released-after-years/article_66508783-e652-5f3c-94c3-acaa6164f3ee.html">one month</a> and <a href="https://www.apnews.com/3df17eb2c8aef3e916a6a866ce97013c">two years</a> after. A different shooter talked of how he was going to “<a href="http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,102077,00.html">pull a Columbine</a>.” Others discussed Columbine with <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/was-columbine-the-trigger/">classmates</a>, even <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/william-atchison-led-double-life-online-749363">joked about it</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/adam-lanzas-terrifying-online-life-revealed-mass-shooting-spreadsheets-columbine-collages-and-murder-tumblrs">Sandy Hook Elementary School</a> shooter idolized the Columbine killers and curated a Tumblr account paying homage, alongside a graphic collage of Columbine victims. A North Carolina shooter was so <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/14591327/ns/us_news-crime_and_courts/t/cops-nc-suspect-e-mailed-columbine-official/#.XKzqaZhKjD5">obsessed with Columbine</a> that he <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/08/21/north.carolina.castillo.trial/index.html">took a vacation</a> there with his mother and fantasized about <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/crime/article10353572.html">“finishing off”</a> any wounded survivors.</p>
<p>Multiple shooters, including one <a href="https://katu.com/news/local/school-shooting-suspect-claims-columbine-influence">15-year-old in Oregon</a> and another in <a href="https://komonews.com/news/local/teen-charged-in-freeman-high-shooting-in-court">Washington state</a>, were inspired by a <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0754392/">documentary</a> about Columbine that included detailed recreations of what happened. One <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wisconsin-hostage-standoff-gunman-shoots/story?id=12272586">Wisconsin teenager</a> held his classroom hostage after <a href="https://www.theawl.com/2010/12/two-hours-in-marinette-lessons-from-a-school-shooting/">reading a book</a> about Columbine.</p>
<h2>Separating myth from reality</h2>
<p>School shooters are almost always <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-shooters-usually-show-these-signs-of-distress-long-before-they-open-fire-our-database-shows-111242">current students</a> of their schools. They are students who are in crisis, students who have experienced trauma, and students who are <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/03/27/school-safety-security-policy-minn-researchers-question">actively suicidal</a> prior to the shooting and expect to die in the act. </p>
<p>Such children have always existed. But for 20 years they’ve had a new script to follow.</p>
<p>And we, the public, have contributed to the production and direction of this script. Again and again and again. Through our obsession with <a href="https://theweek.com/articles/736073/why-true-crime-obsession-bad-society">true crime</a> and films, <a href="https://www.columbine-guide.com/">books</a>, memes and entire websites devoted to Columbine. By releasing CCTV footage of the shooting to the public. By running our children through regular lockdowns and <a href="https://theconversation.com/active-shooter-drills-may-reshape-how-a-generation-of-students-views-school-93709">active shooter drills</a> starting in preschool through 12th grade. By sending them to school through secure entrances with <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/more-school-choice-means-more-school-safety">clear backpacks</a> and <a href="https://www.wfsb.com/news/bulletproof-school-supplies-put-to-the-test/article_29b34fdf-1bf3-5154-9536-b87f41521cb6.html">bulletproof binders</a>. Society and culture have reared a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/02/22/generation-columbine-has-never-known-world-without-school-shootings/361656002/">Columbine generation</a>, modeling that this is just part of childhood in America.</p>
<h2>Flipping the script</h2>
<p>Beyond the Columbine effect, research shows that school shootings have a <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0002764218756918">contagious effect</a> and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mass-shootings-are-contagious/">tend to take place in clusters</a>.</p>
<p>A 2015 study found “<a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0117259">significant evidence of contagion in school shootings</a>.” Specifically, it found that a school shooting is “contagious for an average of 13 days” and incites other school shootings. Although college campus shootings and K-12 school shootings are distinct, it is notable that the STEM School Highlands Ranch shooting comes just one week after a shooter opened fire and killed two and wounded four <a href="https://theconversation.com/university-of-north-carolina-at-charlotte-shooting-has-these-things-in-common-with-other-campus-shootings-116409">at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte</a> on April 30.</p>
<p>After 20 years, it’s time to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/16/opinions/florida-shooting-drills-not-enough-peterson-densley-opinion/index.html">rewrite the script</a> being rehearsed with young people.</p>
<p>It starts with no names, no photos and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0002764217730854">no notoriety</a> for mass shooters in media coverage – which is why we don’t indulge here. At the same time, the fact that both of the suspects in the STEM School Highlands Ranch shooting survived, presents an opportunity to better understand the motivations of the shooters in an effort to prevent further tragedies like this occurring. As we have argued in the past, school shooters almost always <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-shooters-usually-show-these-signs-of-distress-long-before-they-open-fire-our-database-shows-111242">show warning signs</a> well before they open fire.</p>
<p>The next step is a paradigm shift from <a href="https://nyupress.org/9780814748206/homeroom-security/">homeroom security</a> to holistic violence prevention in schools – mental health, supportive environments, strong relationships and crisis intervention and deescalation. Teachers should feel as comfortable asking a student about suicide as they feel going into lockdown; empowered to spend as much time teaching empathy and resilience as they do now training to <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/about/partnerships/office-of-partner-engagement/active-shooter-resources/responding-to-an-active-shooter-crisis-situation">run, hide, fight</a>.</p>
<p>The victims and survivors of school violence must not be forgotten, but to prevent another two decades of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280030460_Contagion_in_Mass_Killings_and_School_Shootings">contagion</a> and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0002764217739663">copycats</a>, it requires a recognition that it is time to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/23/opinions/social-media-fuels-right-wing-extremism-opinion-peterson-densley/index.html">close the curtain</a> on the spectacle of Columbine.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a story published <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-columbine-became-a-blueprint-for-school-shooters-115115">April 17, 2019</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jillian Peterson receives funding from the National Institute of Justice.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Densley receives funding from the National Institute of Justice. </span></em></p>The 1999 Columbine high school shooting spawned a generation of school shooters who tried to copy it, research shows.Jillian Peterson, Professor of Criminal Justice, Hamline University James Densley, Professor of Criminal Justice, Metropolitan State University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1151152019-04-17T15:56:11Z2019-04-17T15:56:11ZHow Columbine became a blueprint for school shooters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269825/original/file-20190417-139104-10ey627.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Students leave Columbine High School late April 16, 2019, in Littleton, Colo., following a lockdown at the school and other Denver area schools.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Columbine-Lockdown/ba5b3e213ebf435681a0da19752181e3/12/0">David Zalubowski/AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When 12 students and one teacher were killed in Littleton, Colorado 20 years ago, it not only became what at the time was the <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1990s/columbine-high-school-shootings">worst high school shooting</a> in U.S. history. It also marked when American society was first handed a script for a new form of violence in schools.</p>
<p>We make that observation as researchers – a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hoHQX8MAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">psychologist</a> and a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iS4HAEMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">sociologist</a> – who have been studying mass public shootings as <a href="https://www.theviolenceproject.org/mass-shooters">part of a grant</a> from the U.S. Department of Justice. </p>
<p>Since the 1999 tragedy at Columbine High School, we identified six mass shootings and 40 <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/active-shooter-study-2000-2013-1.pdf/view">active shooter</a> incidents at elementary, middle or high schools in the United States. Mass shootings are <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44126.pdf">defined by the FBI</a> as an event in which four or more victims died by gunfire.</p>
<p>In 20 – or nearly half – of those 46 school shootings, the perpetrator purposely used Columbine as a model.</p>
<p>Columbine’s influence continues until this day. On April 17 – just three days ahead of the 20th anniversary of the Columbine shooting – authorities <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/columbine-related-threat-by-armed-woman-shuts-denver-area-schools-11555501233">closed schools across Colorado</a> due to a credible threat of a woman armed with a shotgun and who was “<a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/16/jefferson-county-schools-lockout/">infatuated with Columbine</a>.” The 18-year-old Florida woman was reportedly <a href="https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/nationworld/fl-ne-columbine-lockdown-20190416-story.html">found dead in Colorado</a> later in the day from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound.</p>
<h2>The ties that bind to Columbine</h2>
<p>In our study of school shootings, we only looked at cases where a gun was fired on campus, following the practice of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/local/school-shootings-database/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c542ac9200c5">The Washington Post’s</a> database on school shootings. Had we included <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/10/columbine-effect-mass-shootings-copycat-data/">foiled plots</a>, the number would be <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/columbine-shootings-grim-legacy-50-school-attacks-plots/story?id=26007119">significantly higher</a>.</p>
<p>Several school shooters in our study were <a href="https://www.tulsaworld.com/news/local/a-dark-day-for-fort-gibson-school-shooting-now-years/article_0f51d05b-999c-575f-bff6-6465404a9d24.html">fascinated with Columbine</a> and <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/10/21/at-least-2-dead-in-nevada-school-shooting">researched</a> the massacre before their own. This includes the <a href="https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/cruz-researched-columbine-massacre-parkland-shooting-article-1.3953545">Parkland shooter</a>, a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/12/12/jesse-osborne-pleads-guilty-south-carolina-school-shooting/2297747002/">14-year-old</a> who aspired to be “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/12/12/jesse-osborne-pleads-guilty-south-carolina-school-shooting/2297747002/">the youngest mass murderer</a>,” and a <a href="https://www.pantagraph.com/news/th-grader-detailed-shooting-in-deadly-diary/article_02d99158-90ac-55b5-9ec4-b56fab93b49f.html">15-year-old</a> who shot at his teacher after she <a href="https://www.pantagraph.com/news/th-grader-detailed-shooting-in-deadly-diary/article_02d99158-90ac-55b5-9ec4-b56fab93b49f.html">refused to praise Marilyn Manson</a>, the rock singer who was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/music/2017/sep/21/columbine-destroyed-my-entire-career-marilyn-manson-on-the-perils-of-being-the-lord-of-darkness">erroneously blamed</a> for inspiring the Columbine killers.</p>
<p>The timing of the April 17 threat to Colorado schools is no coincidence. Prior perpetrators chose the anniversary of Columbine to commit their shootings, including <a href="https://www.rockdalenewtoncitizen.com/news/local/tj-solomon-heritage-high-school-shooter-released-after-years/article_66508783-e652-5f3c-94c3-acaa6164f3ee.html">one month</a> and <a href="https://www.apnews.com/3df17eb2c8aef3e916a6a866ce97013c">two years</a> after. A different shooter talked of how he was going to “<a href="http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,102077,00.html">pull a Columbine</a>.” Others discussed Columbine with <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/was-columbine-the-trigger/">classmates</a>, even <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/william-atchison-led-double-life-online-749363">joked about it</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/adam-lanzas-terrifying-online-life-revealed-mass-shooting-spreadsheets-columbine-collages-and-murder-tumblrs">Sandy Hook Elementary School</a> shooter idolized the Columbine killers and curated a Tumblr account paying homage, alongside a graphic collage of Columbine victims. A North Carolina shooter was so <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/id/14591327/ns/us_news-crime_and_courts/t/cops-nc-suspect-e-mailed-columbine-official/#.XKzqaZhKjD5">obsessed with Columbine</a> that he <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/08/21/north.carolina.castillo.trial/index.html">took a vacation</a> there with his mother and fantasized about <a href="https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/crime/article10353572.html">“finishing off”</a> any wounded survivors.</p>
<p>Multiple shooters, including one <a href="https://katu.com/news/local/school-shooting-suspect-claims-columbine-influence">15-year-old in Oregon</a> and another in <a href="https://komonews.com/news/local/teen-charged-in-freeman-high-shooting-in-court">Washington state</a>, were inspired by a <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0754392/">documentary</a> about Columbine that included detailed recreations of what happened. One <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/wisconsin-hostage-standoff-gunman-shoots/story?id=12272586">Wisconsin teenager</a> held his classroom hostage after <a href="https://www.theawl.com/2010/12/two-hours-in-marinette-lessons-from-a-school-shooting/">reading a book</a> about Columbine.</p>
<p>Perpetrators also <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/story/student-charged-in-missouri-middle-school-shooting">dressed in trench coats</a> like the Columbine shooters, including those responsible for the <a href="https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Teen-suspect-in-Santa-Fe-shooting-promoted-12926019.php">2018 Santa Fe shooting</a>, where 10 people died, and a 2004 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/19/nyregion/student-agrees-to-20year-term-after-nonfatal-shooting-spree-in.html">nonfatal shooting</a> in New York. Indeed, the <a href="https://www.gq.com/story/santa-fe-shooting-trench-coat-ban">trench coat</a> has appeared in subsequent school shootings because Columbine gave it meaning beyond any intrinsic use.</p>
<h2>Why Columbine?</h2>
<p>Columbine has spawned an entire <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0002764218755835">subculture of “Columbiners” and copycats</a>. A March 2019 <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-violence-school/inspired-by-columbine-brazil-pair-kill-eight-and-themselves-in-school-shooting-idUSKBN1QU1TT">shooting in Brazil that killed eight</a> shows that Columbine’s influence is global. But Columbine was not the <a href="https://www.k12academics.com/school-shootings/history-school-shootings-united-states">first school shooting</a>, not even that year. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/05/22/612465197/20-years-ago-oregon-school-shooting-ended-a-bloody-season">Eleven months</a> before the horror in Littleton unfolded, an expelled 15-year-old – also wearing a trench coat – killed two and injured 25 at a school in Springfield, Oregon. Why do we not now talk about the “Springfield effect”?</p>
<p>Partly because the perpetrator in Springfield was <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/kinkel/trial/sack.html">professionally diagnosed as psychotic</a>, meaning his attack could be more easily explained away. He also acted alone, whereas having two shooters immediately intensified the intrigue around Columbine. But the main reason for Columbine’s longevity was that its perpetrators created <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/07/us/07columbine.html">manifestos</a> and <a href="http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,992873,00.html">home movies</a> of their preparations in hopes that their story would outlive them. Unfortunately, it has.</p>
<p>Before Columbine, there was no script for how school shooters should behave, dress and speak. Columbine created “<a href="https://press.princeton.edu/titles/9998.html">common knowledge</a>,” the foundation of coordination in the absence of a standardized playbook. Timing was everything. The massacre was one of the first to take place after <a href="https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-orlando-shooting-media-20160618-snap-story.html">the advent of 24-hour cable news</a> and during the “<a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/574132.stm">the year of the net</a>.” This was the dawn of the digital age of <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/titles/9436.html">perfect remembering</a>, where words and deeds live online forever. Columbine became the pilot for future episodes of <a href="http://www.startribune.com/terrorism-is-a-performance-don-t-watch/507322442/">fame-seeking violence</a>.</p>
<h2>Separating myth from reality</h2>
<p>Our research has found that school shootings have nothing to do with <a href="http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19990613&slug=2966238">jock envy</a>, <a href="https://www.bethwinegarner.com/the-columbine-effect">satanism</a>, <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2007/07/04/study-links-computer-denial-to-columbine/">video games</a>, or <a href="https://www.westword.com/news/keanu-reeves-blamed-for-parkland-and-columbine-10010081">Keanu Reeves</a>, and school shooters are not <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2004/04/at-last-we-know-why-the-columbine-killers-did-it.html">psychopathic masterminds</a>. In fact, these soundbite explanations for aberrant behavior only blind us to the reality of school violence.</p>
<p>School shooters are almost always <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-shooters-usually-show-these-signs-of-distress-long-before-they-open-fire-our-database-shows-111242">current students</a> of their schools. They are students who are in crisis, students who have experienced trauma, and students who are <a href="https://www.mprnews.org/story/2019/03/27/school-safety-security-policy-minn-researchers-question">actively suicidal</a> prior to the shooting and expect to die in the act. Such children have always existed. But for 20 years they’ve had a new script to follow.</p>
<p>And we, the public, have contributed to the production and direction of this script. Again and again and again. Through our obsession with <a href="https://theweek.com/articles/736073/why-true-crime-obsession-bad-society">true crime</a> and films, <a href="https://www.columbine-guide.com/">books</a>, memes and entire websites devoted to Columbine. By releasing CCTV footage of the shooting to the public. By running our children through regular lockdowns and <a href="https://theconversation.com/active-shooter-drills-may-reshape-how-a-generation-of-students-views-school-93709">active shooter drills</a> starting in preschool through 12th grade. By sending them to school through secure entrances with <a href="https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/more-school-choice-means-more-school-safety">clear backpacks</a> and <a href="https://www.wfsb.com/news/bulletproof-school-supplies-put-to-the-test/article_29b34fdf-1bf3-5154-9536-b87f41521cb6.html">bulletproof binders</a>. Society and culture have reared a <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/02/22/generation-columbine-has-never-known-world-without-school-shootings/361656002/">Columbine generation</a>, modeling that this is just part of childhood in America.</p>
<h2>Flipping the script</h2>
<p>After serial killing peaked in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/15/are-american-serial-killers-a-dying-breed">late 1980s</a>, it’s hard to know which <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2011/01/the-decline-of-the-serial-killer.html">faded first</a> – the serial killers themselves or the public obsession with them. The same fear and fascination that created the <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Using-Murder-The-Social-Construction-of-Serial-Homicide/Jenkins/p/book/9781351328449">serial killer panic</a> is what drives the <a href="http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,35098,00.html">Columbine effect</a>. After 20 years, it’s time to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/16/opinions/florida-shooting-drills-not-enough-peterson-densley-opinion/index.html">rewrite the script</a> being rehearsed with young people.</p>
<p>It starts with no names, no photos and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0002764217730854">no notoriety</a> for mass shooters in media coverage – which is why we don’t indulge here. The next step is a paradigm shift from <a href="https://nyupress.org/9780814748206/homeroom-security/">homeroom security</a> to holistic violence prevention in schools – mental health, supportive environments, strong relationships and crisis intervention and deescalation. Teachers should feel as comfortable asking a student about suicide as they feel going into lockdown; empowered to spend as much time teaching empathy and resilience as they do now training to <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/about/partnerships/office-of-partner-engagement/active-shooter-resources/responding-to-an-active-shooter-crisis-situation">run, hide, fight</a>.</p>
<p>The victims and survivors of school violence must not be forgotten, but to prevent another two decades of <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/280030460_Contagion_in_Mass_Killings_and_School_Shootings">contagion</a> and <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0002764217739663">copycats</a>, it requires a recognition that it is time to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/23/opinions/social-media-fuels-right-wing-extremism-opinion-peterson-densley/index.html">close the curtain</a> on the spectacle of Columbine.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115115/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jillian Peterson receives funding from the National Institute of Justice.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Densley receives funding from the National Institute of Justice. </span></em></p>Media coverage of the Columbine school shooting that took place in 1999 has ended up becoming a playbook for school shooters in the United States and beyond, an analysis of school shootings reveals.Jillian Peterson, Professor of Criminal Justice, Hamline University James Densley, Professor of Criminal Justice, Metropolitan State University Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1133012019-04-10T10:49:22Z2019-04-10T10:49:22ZHow a ‘missing’ movement made gun control a winning issue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267910/original/file-20190406-115803-1844i79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler shakes hands with Aalayah Eastmond, a senior at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, during a hearing on guns violence at Capitol Hill on Feb. 6, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Congress-Guns/4914a790284a46058a0eaf8f5ec1f12c/2/0">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Thirty-three Republicans and all but one Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives agreed to pass <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/04/04/707685268/violence-against-women-act-gets-tangled-up-in-gun-rights-debate">additional restrictions</a> on gun ownership as part of a renewed Violence Against Women Act earlier this month. This move came on the heels of the February passage of two gun control bills: the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8/text">Bipartisan Background Checks Act</a> and the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/1112">Enhanced Background Checks Act</a>, all of which were opposed by the NRA.</p>
<p>As the first gun control legislation to pass either the House or Senate since the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/103rd-congress/house-bill/4296/text">1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban</a>, the recent bills mark a historic shift in American politics. </p>
<p>We have studied contemporary American gun culture for the past four years, tracing the foundation of the emerging gun control movement. Our <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0276146717715744">research</a> offers insight into the ways that gun violence prevention groups have promoted cultural shifts around guns, and why so many legislators are now willing to broach this contentious issue. </p>
<p>For the past 25 years, gun control has been the untouchable “third rail” of American politics. Even in the face of multiple mass shootings – <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/09/18/us/columbine-high-school-shootings-fast-facts/index.html">Columbine</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/16/us/16cnd-shooting.html">Virginia Tech</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/back-aurora-colorado-movie-theater-shooting-years/story?id=48730066">Aurora</a>, <a href="http://time.com/5061579/sandy-hook-newtown-history/">Sandy Hook</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/2016-orlando-shooting">Orlando</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/02/555229322/many-questions-remain-in-the-aftermath-of-the-las-vegas-shooting">Las Vegas</a>, to name a few – very few politicians have declared themselves in favor of gun control. On the other hand, many successful politicians have positioned themselves as “pro-gun.” </p>
<p>By avoiding associating themselves with gun control, politicians have skirted a divisive issue. But they have also perpetuated the notion that gun regulations are not feasible or palatable to American citizens.</p>
<p>Background check <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gun-control-overhaul-is-defeated-in-senate/2013/04/17/57eb028a-a77c-11e2-b029-8fb7e977ef71_story.html?utm_term=.33fe4e3698cb">bills failed</a> in the 2013 Democrat-led Senate. They failed again in the 2016 Republican-led Senate. That seems surprising given that national <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01142019_trends_utsc21.pdf/">polls</a> report that, for the last six years, nine in 10 Americans have supported background check requirements on gun purchases. The failure of these bills provoked a <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Parkland.html?id=ZrhnDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button#v=onepage&q&f=false">sense of resignation</a> from many Americans weary of the violence, who feared that if the Sandy Hook shooting hadn’t prompted legislative action, nothing would. </p>
<p>As <a href="http://cctweb.org/about">consumer culture</a> scholars, we find two things particularly notable about the passage of the House bills. First, the gun control movement’s seeds, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=04Y3AwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">planted as far back as 1974</a>, have now begun to sprout. Second, passage of the bills is remarkable evidence of this social movement, irrespective of any Senate action or inaction.</p>
<h2>The emerging movement</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">March 24, 2018 ‘March for Our Lives’ rally in Washington in support of gun control.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Youth-Vote-Midterms/82e956f385c14ea9acf1426b512f98e1/7/0">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>American gun violence has provoked routine public condemnation and support for stronger gun laws. Yet, gun policy experts like Duke University political scientist Kristin Goss have described gun control as America’s “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=FFgQC1hZnpoC&lpg=PP1&dq=kristin%20goss&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q=kristin%20goss&f=false">missing movement</a>.” As of 2006, groups of concerned citizens had not gathered the financial resources, strategic framing and incremental policy changes needed to galvanize into a full-fledged movement.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/20426761211203247">Research</a> on government anti-smoking campaigns has shown that changing the culture requires influencing change at multiple levels, including legislation, business and organization policies and individual behavior. </p>
<p>In recent years, groups like <a href="https://everytown.org/">Everytown for Gun Safety</a> and <a href="https://www.sandyhookpromise.org/">Sandy Hook Promise</a> have worked mostly independently, but in ways that reinforced each other, on issues related to gun violence prevention. For instance, some groups encouraged voters and state legislators to institute <a href="https://giffords.org/issue/background-checks/">universal background checks</a> and businesses to adopt preventive policies, such as Dick’s Sporting Goods’ <a href="https://everytown.org/press/moms-demand-action-everytown-applaud-dicks-sporting-goods-for-changing-its-policies-on-gun-sales-following-the-parkland-school-shooting/">decision</a> to stop selling “assault-style” rifles, while others focused on convincing <a href="https://momsdemandaction.org/preventing-child-access-guns-safeandsound/">gun owners to store</a> their guns in a locked safe. The groups often used <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/facts/statistics/">statistics and research data</a> in their efforts.</p>
<p>These gun violence prevention groups have sought incremental policy changes, while also explicitly supporting Americans’ <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Supreme-Court-and-the-Second-Amendment-Factsheet.pdf">constitutional rights</a>. This measured, <a href="https://today.oregonstate.edu/archives/2017/jul/gun-violence-prevention-groups-strike-middle-ground-meet-goals">middle-ground</a> approach appears to have laid the necessary scaffolding for the full-fledged movement sparked by the Parkland shooting in February of 2018.</p>
<h2>What changed after Parkland</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331843674_Negotiating_the_Legitimacy_of_an_American_Icon_Myth_and_the_US_Gun_Market">research</a> indicates that a critical change happened after Parkland. Parkland survivors galvanized both citizens previously involved in gun violence prevention and a broader range of Americans not with statistics and data, but by employing two powerful and complementary narratives. </p>
<p>The first involves hero-kids taking on the infamous gun lobby – a David-and-Goliath story easy to rally behind. The second challenged parents, and young adults who grew up in an age of lockdown drills, to be heroes themselves by voting pro-gun candidates out of office.</p>
<p>The second narrative involves <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=q2N8DwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=goss+kristin&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj937vg4IzhAhWqjFQKHVhDAIsQ6AEIPTAD#v=onepage&q=goss%20kristin&f=false">parental duty</a> to protect children. This has been successful for many social movements, and the pro-gun movement is no exception.</p>
<p>A movement’s success can manifest in different forms. Legislation is one such form. Changes in public opinion, individual behaviors or organizational policies, or, more broadly, shifts in the way we talk about social issues are others. This latter form of change is significant. When a contentious issue shifts from a taboo, fringe or radical topic into the mainstream, public attention moves from a question of “whether” to a question of “how” to address the issue.</p>
<p>The activism in the wake of Parkland appears to have made a difference. Many candidates for the federal elections in 2018 made “common sense gun control” part of their <a href="https://lucyforcongress.com/issue/gun-safety/">platform</a>. Notably, many of these candidates, like U.S. Reps. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/04/us/politics/gun-control-candidates-election.html">Jason Crow</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/gun-control-is-winning-issue-in-midterms-as-advocates-gain-in-house-defy-nra.html">Jennifer Wexton</a>, were elected. </p>
<p>These election results suggest the movement’s efforts in laying the groundwork for cultural change and shifting the social discourse has enabled many Americans to disentangle “gun control” from “anti gun,” and to simultaneously support both the right to bear arms and reasonable restrictions on that right. The movement’s success in doing so has made supporting gun control possible for today’s politicians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Gun control bills passed recently by the House of Representatives may never become law, but they are still a sign of important change.Aimee Dinnín Huff, Assistant Professor, Marketing, Oregon State UniversityMichelle Barnhart, Associate Professor of Marketing, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.