tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/disaster-planning-12547/articlesDisaster planning – The Conversation2023-11-07T13:36:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2171472023-11-07T13:36:33Z2023-11-07T13:36:33ZAcapulco was built to withstand earthquakes, but not Hurricane Otis’ destructive winds – how building codes failed this resort city<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557873/original/file-20231106-267225-w11vn6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C16%2C3593%2C2246&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Acapulco's beachfront condo towers were devastated by Hurricane Otis.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/aerial-view-of-damages-caused-by-the-passage-of-hurricane-news-photo/1750791993">Rodrigo Oropeza/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Acapulco wasn’t prepared when Hurricane Otis struck as a powerful Category 5 storm on Oct. 25, 2023. The short notice as the <a href="https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/hurricane-otis-causes-catastrophic-damage-acapulco-mexico">storm rapidly intensified</a> over the Pacific Ocean wasn’t the only problem – the Mexican resort city’s buildings weren’t designed to handle anything close to Otis’ 165 mph winds.</p>
<p>While Acapulco’s oceanfront high-rises were built to withstand <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/strong-quake-rocks-mexicos-acapulco-damaging-airport-killing-one-2021-09-08/">the region’s powerful earthquakes</a>, they had a weakness. </p>
<p>Since powerful hurricanes are <a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes">rare in Acapulco</a>, Mexico’s <a href="https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/247555/300617_EvaluacionEstructuras_02-Viento.pdf">building codes didn’t require</a> that their exterior materials be able to hold up to extreme winds. In fact, those materials were often kept light to help meet earthquake building standards.</p>
<p>Otis’ powerful winds ripped off exterior cladding and shattered windows, exposing bedrooms and offices to the wind and rain. The storm <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/death-toll-from-hurricane-otis-hits-48-with-36-missing-as-search-and-recovery-continues">took dozens of lives</a> and caused <a href="https://www.reinsurancene.ws/corelogic-pegs-hurricane-otis-insurable-loss-at-10bn-to-15bn/">billions of dollars in damage</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large glass tower with sloping sides, like a sliced egg, reflects the sunrise with the Pacific Ocean looking placid in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557814/original/file-20231106-17-xzhpml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A US$130 million luxury condo building on the beach in Acapulco before Hurricane Otis struck on Oct. 25, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hamid Arabzadeh, PhD., P.Eng.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A stormy sky shows through the floors that were once apartments." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557815/original/file-20231106-19-vbqly2.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The same Acapulco condo tower after Hurricane Otis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hamid Arabzadeh, PhD., P.Eng.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I have worked on engineering strategies to enhance disaster resilience for over three decades and recently wrote a book, “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781633888234/The-Blessings-of-Disaster-The-Lessons-That-Catastrophes-Teach-Us-and-Why-Our-Future-Depends-on-It">The Blessings of Disaster</a>,” about the gambles humans take with disaster risk and how to increase resilience. Otis provided a powerful example of one such gamble that exists when building codes rely on probabilities that certain hazards will occur based on recorded history, rather than considering the severe consequences of storms that can devastate entire cities.</p>
<h2>The fatal flaw in building codes</h2>
<p>Building codes typically provide “<a href="https://asce7hazardtool.online/">probabilistic-based” maps</a> that specify wind speeds that engineers must consider when designing buildings. </p>
<p>The problem with that approach lies in the fact that “probabilities” are simply the odds that extreme events of a certain size will occur in the future, mostly calculated based on past occurrences. Some models may include additional considerations, but these are still typically anchored in known experience. </p>
<p>This is all good science. Nobody argues with that. It allows engineers to design structures in accordance with a consensus on what are deemed acceptable <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019">return periods</a> for various hazards, referring to the likelihood of those disasters occurring. Return periods are a somewhat arbitrary assessment of what is a reasonable balance between minimizing risk and keeping building costs reasonable.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.structuremag.org/?p=13360">probabilistic maps</a> only capture the odds of the hazard occurring. A <a href="https://hazards.atcouncil.org/">probabilistic map</a> might specify a wind speed to consider for design, irrespective of whether that given location is a small town with a few hotels or a megapolis with high-rises and complex urban infrastructure. In other words, probabilistic maps do not consider the consequences when an extreme hazard exceeds the specified value and “all hell breaks loose.”</p>
<h2>How probability left Acapulco exposed</h2>
<p>According to the Mexican building code, hotels, condos and other commercial and office buildings in Acapulco must be <a href="https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/247555/300617_EvaluacionEstructuras_02-Viento.pdf">designed to resist 88 mph winds</a>, corresponding to the strongest wind likely to occur on average once every 50 years there. That’s a Category 1 storm.</p>
<p>A 200-year return period for wind is used for essential facilities, such as hospital and school buildings, <a href="https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/247555/300617_EvaluacionEstructuras_02-Viento.pdf">corresponding to 118 mph winds</a>. But over a building’s life span of, say, 50 years, that still leaves a 22% chance that winds exceeding 118 mph will occur (yes, the world of statistics is that sneaky). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of the Mexico area with lots of storm tracks offshore and a few crossing land in the southern part of the country." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557871/original/file-20231106-15-ffcd7l.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=575&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mexico’s hurricane history in storm tracks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of the Acapulco area with lots of storm tracks offshore and a few crossing land." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/557869/original/file-20231106-19-jxgqql.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A century of hurricane storm tracks near Acapulco show several offshore storms that brought strong winds and rain to the city, but few direct landfalls. Acapulco Bay is in the center of the map on the coast. Red, pink and purple lines are categories 3, 4 and 5, respectively.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#map">NOAA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The probability wind maps for both return periods show Acapulco experiences lower average wind speeds than much of the 400 miles of Mexican coast north of the city. Yet, Acapulco is a major city, with a metropolitan population of over 1 million. It also has <a href="https://skyscraperpage.com/cities/?cityID=586&offset=100&statusID=1">more than 50 buildings</a> taller than 20 stories, according to the SkyscraperPage, a database of skyscrapers, and it is the only city with buildings that tall along that stretch of the Pacific coast.</p>
<p>Designing for a 50-year return period in this case is questionable, as it implies a near 100% chance of encountering wind exceeding this design value for a building with a 50-year life span or greater. </p>
<h2>Florida faces similiar challenges</h2>
<p>The shortcomings of probabilistic-based maps that specify wind speeds have also been observed in the United States. For example, new buildings along most of Florida’s coast must be able to <a href="https://www.flrules.org/gateway/readRefFile.asp?refId=13160&filename=Florida_Building_Code_7thEdition_1609_3_Tables.pdf">resist 140 mph winds</a> or greater, but there are a few exceptions. One is the Big Bend area where <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2023/09/02/map-idalia-flooding-big-bend-surge/">Hurricane Idalia made landfall</a> in 2023. Its design wind speed is about 120 mph instead.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://codes.iccsafe.org/content/FLBC2023P1/chapter-16-structural-design#FLBC2023P1_Ch16_Sec1609">2023 update to the Florida Building Code</a> raised the minimum wind speed to approximately 140 mph in Mexico Beach, the Panhandle town that was <a href="https://mexicobeachfl.gov/uploads/2022/06/Wind-load-Ordinance-21919.pdf">devastated by Hurricane Michael</a> in 2018. The Big Bend exception may be the next one to be eliminated.</p>
<h2>Acapulco’s earthquake design weakness</h2>
<p>A saving grace for Acapulco is that it is located in one of <a href="https://mexicodailypost.com/2021/04/19/earthquake-map-30-of-mexico-under-high-seismic-risk/">Mexico’s most active seismic risk zones</a> – for example, a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/09/07/world/mexico-earthquake">magnitude 7 earthquake struck nearby in 2021</a>. As a result, the lateral-load-resisting structural systems in tall buildings there are designed to resist seismic forces that are generally larger than hurricane forces.</p>
<p>However, a drawback is that the larger the mass of a building, <a href="https://www.wbdg.org/resources/seismic-design-principles">the larger the seismic forces</a> the building must be designed to resist. Consequently, light materials were typically used for the cladding – the exterior surface of the building that protects it against the weather – because that translates into lower seismic forces. This light cladding was not able to withstand hurricane-force winds.</p>
<p>Had the cladding not failed, the full wind forces would have been transferred to the structural system, and the buildings would have survived with little or no damage.</p>
<h2>A ‘good engineering approach’ to hazards</h2>
<p>A better building code could go one step beyond “good science” probabilistic maps and adopt a “<a href="https://michelbruneau.com/TheBlessingsOfDisaster.htm">good engineering approach</a>” by taking stock of the consequences of extreme events occurring, not just the odds that they will.</p>
<p>In Florida, the incremental cost of designing for wind speeds of 140 mph rather than 120 mph is marginal compared to total building cost, given that cladding able to resist more than 140 mph is already used in nearly all of the state. In Acapulco, with the spine of buildings already able to resist earthquake forces much larger than hurricane forces, designing cladding that can withstand stronger hurricane-level forces is likely to be an even smaller percentage of total project cost.</p>
<p>Someday, the way that design codes deal with extreme events such as hurricanes, not only in Mexico, will hopefully evolve to more broadly account for what is at risk at the urban scale. Unfortunately, as I explain in “<a href="https://michelbruneau.com/TheBlessingsOfDisaster.htm">The Blessings of Disaster</a>,” we will see more extreme disasters before society truly becomes disaster resilient.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michel Bruneau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The best science is not always the best engineering when it comes to building codes. It’s also a problem across the US, as an engineer who works on disaster resilience explains.Michel Bruneau, Professor of Engineering, University at BuffaloLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2132202023-09-11T06:40:21Z2023-09-11T06:40:21ZMorocco’s earthquake wasn’t unexpected – building codes must plan for them<p><em>More than 2,000 people <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66759069">died</a> when a powerful magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck Morocco on 8 September. The epicentre was in the High Atlas Mountains, 71km (44 miles) south-west of Marrakesh. Moina Spooner, from The Conversation Africa, asked José A. Peláez, a professor in geophysics who has carried out <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/306004500_Energetic_and_spatial_characterization_of_seismicity_in_the_Algeria-Morocco_region?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InByb2ZpbGUiLCJwYWdlIjoicHJvZmlsZSJ9fQ">research</a> on <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327542846_Comparative_stochastic_modeling_of_the_Al_Hoceima_Morocco_aftershock_sequences_in_1994_Mw_60_2004_Mw_64_and_2016_Mw_63?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7ImZpcnN0UGFnZSI6InByb2ZpbGUiLCJwYWdlIjoicHJvZmlsZSJ9fQ">seismic activity</a> in Morocco, about what led to this situation.</em></p>
<h2>What geological factors contributed to this earthquake?</h2>
<p>The Earth’s surface is constituted of several <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/plate-tectonics">tectonic plates</a>, large segments of the planet’s outer layer, which move against each other. This movement is responsible for various geological phenomena, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and the formation of mountains and ocean basins.</p>
<p>The tectonic activity in Morocco primarily involves the convergence of the Eurasian and the Nubian (African) plates. The Eurasian Plate pushing against the Nubian Plate is what led to the formation of the Atlas Mountains, which run through Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. The mountains are where the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/10/africa/morocco-earthquake-moulay-brahim-survivors-hnk-intl/index.html">epicentre</a> of this recent earthquake was. </p>
<p>Currently, the collisions between the plates are causing a shortening of the Atlas Mountains, explaining the area’s seismicity. We know this because of data from GPS measurements, which show that they are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/s23104846">moving about 1 millimetre</a> closer to each other every year. </p>
<p>This shortening and compression is causing what are known as <a href="https://earthhow.com/types-of-faults/#:%7E:text=Reverse%20faults%20occur%20when%20one,move%20horizontally%20past%20each%20other.">faults</a>, huge friction between plates. These faults are the likely cause of this earthquake. Scientists <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1951(02)00368-2">think</a> that these faults have been active for a long time, going back a few million years.</p>
<p>In addition, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/s23104846">as pointed out</a> by various researchers, the High Atlas Mountains have a unique geological feature where the Earth’s outermost and hard layer, called the lithosphere, is thinner than usual, combined with an unusual rise of the mantle. All these features could have influenced the occurrence of this high magnitude earthquake.</p>
<h2>What is Morocco’s history of earthquakes?</h2>
<p>Seismic activity and its phenomena, like earthquakes, are not unusual in Morocco. </p>
<p>Over the last thousand years, earthquakes affecting Morocco have tended to take place mainly in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.6.614">two areas</a>. Offshore, along the Azores-Gibraltar transform fault and the Alboran Sea, and another one onshore, along the Rif mountains in northern Morocco and the Tell Atlas mountain range in north-western Algeria. Earthquakes along the Atlas Belt are smaller in number, but not unusual.</p>
<p>The most significant, recent earthquakes affecting Morocco <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/app12178744">were in</a> 1994, 2004 and 2016, with magnitudes ranging between 6.0 and 6.3. These occurred in the most seismically active region in Morocco and also in the western Mediterranean region. </p>
<p>A bit further back in history, there was the devastating Agadir earthquake in February 1960, with a magnitude of 6.3. It was located around the boundary between the western High Atlas and the Anti Atlas, to the south. Available data indicates that between 12,000 and 15,000 people died due to this event. In addition, near the location of the recent event, there was another earthquake in 1955, with an estimated magnitude of about 5.8.</p>
<p>Even further back, prior to the establishment of seismometers, several significant events were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.78.6.614">recorded</a> in Morocco. Among them were the 1624 Fès earthquake, with an estimated magnitude of 6.7, and the 1731 Agadir earthquake, with a magnitude of 6.4. </p>
<h2>Could it have been predicted?</h2>
<p>Earthquakes cannot be predicted, even with the current knowledge in seismology. In fact, many researchers think that it will not be possible to do so in the future either. What seismologists can do is establish the areas in which earthquakes are most likely to occur, even establish the probability of their occurrence and its uncertainty.</p>
<p>This is that we call a long-term prediction, carried out from specific seismic hazard studies in the region. They are based on knowledge of past seismicity in the area, both historical and instrumental, and on the existence and knowledge of active tectonic structures (faults) that could generate earthquakes. The greater the knowledge that one has on these two topics – seismicity and active faults in the region – the more knowledge one will have about the future seismicity that may occur in the area, and the less the uncertainty will be.</p>
<p>Seismic hazard studies also include the study of near-surface soil conditions and the characteristics of buildings. This helps to assess the possible damage from these potential earthquakes.</p>
<h2>What can be done to lessen the impact of future earthquakes in Morocco?</h2>
<p>The best tool we have to mitigate the impact of earthquakes is to conduct reliable seismic hazard studies. The results of these must then be implemented into national building codes. This way engineers can incorporate seismic safety into building designs.</p>
<p>Building codes need to take into account several factors, including the characteristics of the soil, the way seismic waves move and how the soil can amplify its movement during an earthquake. Also the expected shaking of the ground, which influences the behaviour and damage of buildings. These factors vary from one city to another, and in some cases from one district to another.</p>
<p>Seismologists know that earthquakes do not kill people – buildings do. Buildings with lack of regulation and lack of structural support are potential killers in high seismic hazard areas. Building codes must therefore be mandatory, and should be updated periodically. As more is learned about earthquake geology and the impact of earthquakes on buildings, building codes should be updated regularly. This is the best way to protect ourselves against these catastrophic phenomena. Territorial planners and rulers must know this and take it into account.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/213220/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>José A. Peláez Montilla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Earthquakes cannot be predicted; the best tools to mitigate the impact are seismic hazard studies.José A. Peláez Montilla, Professor of Geophysics, Universidad de JaénLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2122432023-09-10T13:04:16Z2023-09-10T13:04:16ZCanada’s lack of recognition for gender-based violence is putting disaster survivors at risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546717/original/file-20230906-29-yolnrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=58%2C0%2C2938%2C1999&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Evidence suggests gender-based violence increases during disasters and in the years that follow.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/canadas-lack-of-recognition-for-gender-based-violence-is-putting-disaster-survivors-at-risk" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Canada has experienced an <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/here-s-a-look-at-what-s-happened-in-canada-s-record-breaking-wildfire-season-so-far-1.6512161">unprecedented wildfire season in 2023</a>. People’s experiences with any disaster event are influenced by social- and place-based vulnerabilities. For example, where you live affects your exposure to different hazards including wildfires and floods. </p>
<p>Pre-existing <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781420078572/social-vulnerability-disasters-deborah-thomas-brenda-phillips-lynn-blinn-pike-alice-fothergill">social vulnerabilities contribute to some populations having disproportionate impacts from these events</a>, in both the short and long term. Social vulnerability factors that have a demonstrated effect on people’s experience with disasters include income, health, disability, age, race, and gender. These factors also intersect in ways that increase vulnerability for certain populations. </p>
<p>Evidence suggests <a href="https://oxfordre.com/naturalhazardscience/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.001.0001/acrefore-9780199389407-e-390">gender-based violence increases during disasters</a> and in the years that follow. Further, the risk for <a href="https://journals.gre.ac.uk/index.php/gswr/article/download/1088/pdf">women</a> and <a href="https://genderanddisaster.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Identifying-the-experiences-and-needs-of-LGBTI-emergencies-FINAL.pdf">LGBTQI populations</a> is heightened when sheltering in place or evacuation from a community is required. </p>
<p>Evidence of gender-based violence during and after disasters can be reflected in increased calls from women to police and domestic violence helplines. However, it is estimated that <a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/rp-pr/csj-sjc/ccs-ajc/rr06_vic2/p3_4.html">78 per cent of cases of sexual assault</a> in Canada are not reported for a variety of reasons. </p>
<p>It is important to recognize that social vulnerabilities are not inherent individual traits, rather <a href="https://hal.science/hal-02001407/document">vulnerability stems from historic inequities</a> over time that impact access to resources and marginalize people. </p>
<p>Government preparedness for and responses to disasters must consider and address how social vulnerabilities increase disaster risk and adverse outcomes for some populations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man and woman in a kitchen arguing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/547287/original/file-20230908-37766-ktrx5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supports like counselling centres, women’s shelters and sexual assault centres can be disrupted during a disaster.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Gaps in emergency management planning</h2>
<p>My research examines how social vulnerabilities, gender and gender-based violence are addressed in government plans for responding to disasters and pandemics. <a href="https://canadianwomen.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Recognition-of-the-Gendered-Impacts-of-Disasters-EN-1.pdf">In my research</a>, I found that federal, provincial, territorial and local government emergency management plans in Canada acknowledge how social vulnerabilities contribute to the differential impacts of hazard events for households and communities. </p>
<p>Importantly, the federal government recently published two reports examining how social vulnerability contributes to disaster risk: the <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/ntnl-rsk-prfl/index-en.aspx#s2">National Risk Profile</a> and the report on <a href="https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2022/rncan-nrcan/m183-2/M183-2-8902-eng.pdf">Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Canada</a>. </p>
<p>However, my research also found these reports and plans do not address how gender influences the direct and indirect impacts of disasters, including the <a href="https://theconversation.com/domestic-violence-will-spike-in-the-bushfire-aftermath-and-governments-can-no-longer-ignore-it-127018">increase in gender-based violence during and following disasters</a>. </p>
<p>While federal, provincial and territorial governments have made <a href="https://women-gender-equality.canada.ca/en/gender-results-framework.html">commitments to addressing gender inequities</a> and the use of <a href="https://women-gender-equality.canada.ca/en/gender-based-analysis-plus/government-approach.html">gender-based analysis tools such as GBA+</a>, I found limited reference or commitment to the use of these tools. </p>
<p>GBA+ tools examine how gender intersects with other identity factors, such as age, ethnicity and income to differentiate experiences of women, men and gender diverse populations. </p>
<p>Public Safety Canada’s <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/dprtmntl-pln-2023-24/index-en.aspx">Departmental Plan</a> references GBA+ when addressing emergency management. However, the plans address social vulnerability more generally and no commitments are made to address gender specifically.</p>
<p>The only identified government funded report addressing gender and disaster in the Canadian context was a <a href="https://wrd.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/2021-11/9457_9457GenderMainstreamingCanada1.pdf">2008 report</a> by the Public Health Agency of Canada.</p>
<p>The federal and some but not all provincial and territorial governments took <a href="https://canadianwomen.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/FPT-Govt-Actions-to-Address-GBV-EN.pdf">actions during the pandemic</a> to address the increase in gender-based violence. However, there has been no concerted effort by Canadian governments to address the gendered impacts of disasters more generally.</p>
<h2>Gender-based violence and disasters</h2>
<p>There is an established <a href="https://genderanddisaster.com.au/research/">body of research</a> on gender-based violence during Australian bushfires. Researchers found <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0886260517696876">domestic violence occurred</a> in households where a woman had previously experienced violence, as well as in households were there had been stable non-violent relationships. </p>
<p>Further, those experiencing violence noted an increase of the severity of the violence following the disasters. These same patterns were noted in the pandemic in Canada.</p>
<p>The Australian research also found women’s unemployment or homelessness during a disaster was exploited by men who return under the guise of offering assistance. In other instances, men’s behaviour during disaster was excused by counsellors or police because of the stresses brought on by a disaster. The dismissal of violence in the context of a disaster harms women.</p>
<p>Another concern is that supports like counselling centres, women’s shelters and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Catherine-Carter-Snell/publication/359635464_Gaps_in_Sexual_Assault_Prevention_in_Natural_Disasters/links/6245fbba8068956f3c5c762b/Gaps-in-Sexual-Assault-Prevention-in-Natural-Disasters.pdf">sexual assault centres</a> can be disrupted during a disaster. In the recent evacuation of Yellowknife, all these services would likely have been impacted. Further, communication infrastructure is also impacted by disasters, which can limit the ability to call for help. </p>
<p>The Canadian Women’s Foundation recently supported the <a href="https://canadianwomen.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Service-Continuity-Guidelines-for-the-GBV-Sector-EN.pdf">development of guidance to help these organizations</a> prepare for service disruptions in the event of a disaster.</p>
<h2>A call to action</h2>
<p>We have a <a href="https://philpapers.org/rec/ZACTEO-3">moral and ethical imperative</a> to address the inequitable effects of disasters within society. </p>
<p>Recommendations on how to address the gendered impacts of disasters, including gender-based violence, include <a href="https://interagencystandingcommittee.org/system/files/2018-iasc_gender_handbook_for_humanitarian_action_eng_0.pdf">The Gender Handbook for Humanitarian Action</a>, <a href="https://gbvguidelines.org/en/">Guidelines for Integrating Gender-Based Violence Interventions in Humanitarian Action</a>, the Red Cross <a href="https://www.ifrc.org/sites/default/files/Minimum-standards-for-protection-gender-and-inclusion-in-emergencies-LR.pdf">Minimum Standard Commitments to Gender and Diversity in Emergency Programming</a> and the UN’s <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/featured-publication/gbvie-standards">Minimum Standards for Prevention and Response to Gender-based Violence in Emergencies</a>. </p>
<p>Australia has made significant investments in addressing <a href="https://genderanddisaster.com.au/">the gendered impacts of disasters</a>. Their process offers an example of what is needed in Canada to advance gender and disaster practice. </p>
<p>The mandate to address <a href="https://women-gender-equality.canada.ca/en.html">gender inequities in Canada is already in place</a>, as are <a href="https://women-gender-equality.canada.ca/en/gender-based-violence.html">plans to address gender-based violence</a>. There is an urgent imperative to bring the work addressing gender-based inequity and violence into emergency management practice. These efforts need to be led by all orders of government and integrated into their <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2022-ems-ctn-pln/index-en.aspx">action plans for improving emergency management practices</a> in Canada.</p>
<p>Experts on the gendered impacts of disasters must become part of the emergency response effort. In addition to integrating gender analysis in planning activities, rapid gender analysis needs to be conducted at the outset of a disaster and throughout the recovery period.</p>
<p>Further, emergency management organizations need to work closely with counselling centres, women’s shelters and sexual assault services to ensure they have the capacity to respond to disasters. These organizations must be recognized as an essential service when disasters occur.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Research funding recieved from the Canadian Women's Foundation.</span></em></p>Research shows gender-based violence increases in the aftermath of disasters. Governments must incorporate ways of addressing it into their disaster response plans.Jean Slick, Professor, Disaster and Emergency Management, Royal Roads UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2052412023-05-29T13:09:42Z2023-05-29T13:09:42ZAccra’s market fires are devastating to informal traders - but they don’t trust or understand what they’re being told about managing risk<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/525629/original/file-20230511-25-3t81fw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Market fires cause significant upheavals in the heavily informal Ghanaian economy</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ghana’s informal urban markets play a key role in the country’s economy. They <a href="https://www.wiego.org/sites/default/files/publications/file/WIEGO_Statistical_Brief_N21_0.pdf#page=2">employ more than 80%</a> of the people who work in the informal sector. They create livelihoods for traders, give urban residents access to essential household products, and add value to the culture of urban life.</p>
<p>Most market traders rely on credit from financial institutions, family and friends. Few have insurance. Without insurance, traders are left vulnerable to fire disasters, as urban markets are prone to fire outbreaks. </p>
<p>There are no statistics on the number of fires that have gutted markets in Ghana. That’s because the numbers fall under the Ghana National Fire Service’s classification of commercial fires. In 2022 there were <a href="https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Editorial-How-long-will-our-markets-continue-to-burn-while-we-ignore-the-real-signs-of-disasters-1736234">986 recorded commercial fires</a> in Ghana. </p>
<p>Urban market fires in the informal sector have received relatively little attention from local governments compared to flood disasters. And <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10708-021-10416-3">research</a> shows that local government authorities have failed to include fire risk in their urban management and development plans. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rhc3.12259">study</a> showed that risk communication is an important part of fire disaster management. Providing adequate information on fire risks is crucial in disaster prevention and response. But effective fire risk communication requires that authorities engage regularly with communities. In this case, traders. It must do so in a way that draws on community knowledge and practices.</p>
<h2>Risk communication in informal urban markets</h2>
<p>We did our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rhc3.12259">research</a> in the Makola and Nima markets in Accra, Ghana’s capital city. The <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/sjtg.12167">Makola market</a> is large, having more than 35,000 traders and hawkers. It was established in 1924 and has grown in an unregulated way. The <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/psp.551">Nima market</a> is much smaller but has also grown haphazardly in a slum area. </p>
<p>The selection of these two markets enabled us to compare and understand socio-cultural factors affecting fire risk communication. </p>
<p>We combined interviews and focus group discussions with market women, executives of traders’ unions, and officials of the Ghana National Fire Service, the National Disaster Management Organisation, and the Regional Coordinating Council.</p>
<p>One of our <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/rhc3.12259">key findings</a> was that informal traders lose trust in the authorities when they fail to keep the promises made after previous fire disasters. This leads to traders’ distrust of risk communication information and actions by authorities.</p>
<p>In addition, fire risk communication by the authorities has been ineffective because of limited engagement between traders and city authorities. Traders told us that a continuous relationship with officials of the Accra Metropolitan Assembly would have helped reduce market fires. </p>
<p>There was also the issue of language, which hampered effective fire risk communication. Some traders said that most radio discussions on fire risks and hazards were conducted in languages they did not understand. For instance, in the Nima market, which is dominated by traders from northern Ghana and neighbouring west African countries, the traders mentioned that fire risk communication was delivered by traders’ association executives mostly in English and other southern languages. Traders weren’t proficient in these. Obviously, being unable to understand a particular language affects the ability to comprehend a message.</p>
<p>Religious beliefs also contributed to the way traders perceived fire risk communication messages. Some traders attributed fire outbreaks to the wrath of God on some traders due to perceived corrupt trading activities or punishment for moral failures.</p>
<h2>Top-down approach doesn’t work</h2>
<p>Our research shows that top-down risk communication involving authorities has been ineffective in reducing disasters. <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.4324/9781315797809/cultures-disasters-fred-kr%C3%BCger-greg-bankoff-terry-cannon-lisa-schipper-benedikt-orlowski">Research</a> shows that communication is most effective when it involves authorities and residents at risk or affected by disasters. </p>
<p>This allows for the development of communication strategies that are embedded in the cultures and environments of the communities.</p>
<p>Each community’s culture contains strategies and practices for dealing with disasters. Tapping into this makes risk communication more effective and builds social resilience. It shapes a community’s perception of risks.</p>
<p>Our findings point to issues which city authorities and disaster management institutions should consider when planning communication on fire risks in informal urban markets. </p>
<p>Firstly, they should incorporate traders’ circumstances in all communication plans. They should also work within each market’s existing social structures, including traders’ associations. Trust is crucial - so disaster management agencies must respond to the needs of traders and, most importantly, live up to their responsibilities and promises. </p>
<p>To be effective, fire risk communication strategies must not only be supported by formal institutions such as government agencies but also be rooted in and sensitive to each market’s socio-cultural dynamics and networks. </p>
<p><em>Stephen Leonard Mensah, graduate research assistant at the University of Ghana, is a contributing author</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Asare Okyere is part of an international team of scholars receiving funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Fund (VREF)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louis Kusi Frimpong is part of an international team of scholars receiving funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Fund (VREF)</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Abunyewah and Stephen Kofi Diko do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fire risk communication strategies must not only be supported by formal institutions such as government agencies but also be rooted in and sensitive to each market’s socio-cultural dynamics.Seth Asare Okyere, Visiting Assistant Professor, University of ArizonaLouis Kusi Frimpong, Lecturer, University of Environment and Sustainable Development Matthew Abunyewah, Research Fellow, The Australasian Centre for Resilience Implementation for Sustainable Communities, Charles Darwin UniversityStephen Kofi Diko, Assistant Professor, University of MemphisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1686382021-09-24T16:44:55Z2021-09-24T16:44:55ZWhat goes into a disaster kit and go-bag? Here’s a checklist for wildfires, hurricanes and other storms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423176/original/file-20210924-46085-151tka5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5760%2C3802&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Disasters can happen anywhere at any time. Be prepared.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/emergency-preparedness-checklist-and-disaster-royalty-free-image/487436104">fstop123 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When disasters hit, they can mean days to weeks without power, and sometimes they allow just enough time to grab a bag of supplies and go. Now is the time to prepare, well before the disaster is on your doorstep. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=35yZJBEAAAAJ&hl=en">I study ways to improve disaster communications</a>. Here’s what you need to think about.</p>
<h2>Know your area’s disaster risk</h2>
<p>While some hazards, like windstorms, happen in every region, certain disasters are more common in specific geographic areas. It’s important to know your risks.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.redcross.org/get-help/how-to-prepare-for-emergencies/common-natural-disasters-across-us.html">American Red Cross has a tool</a> for determining common disasters in your area, like <a href="https://theconversation.com/some-coastal-areas-are-more-prone-to-devastating-hurricanes-a-meteorologist-explains-why-160765">hurricanes along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts</a> from June through November, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/another-dangerous-fire-season-is-looming-in-the-western-u-s-and-the-drought-stricken-region-is-headed-for-a-water-crisis-160848">wildfire season in the West</a>, that seems to last all year now but worsens as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/01/us/diablo-winds-wildfire.html">winds pick up</a> in late summer and fall. <a href="https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/map">Each hazard</a> requires <a href="https://www.ready.gov/sites/default/files/2021-01/ready_full-suite_hazard-info-sheets.pdf">different preparation steps</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423217/original/file-20210925-13-2epe89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Maps show which states have the most of different types of disasters, such as tropical storms and wildfires" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423217/original/file-20210925-13-2epe89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423217/original/file-20210925-13-2epe89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423217/original/file-20210925-13-2epe89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423217/original/file-20210925-13-2epe89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423217/original/file-20210925-13-2epe89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423217/original/file-20210925-13-2epe89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423217/original/file-20210925-13-2epe89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">States with the most disasters that caused over US$1 billion dollars in damage, by disaster type.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2016-historic-year-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-us">Climate.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Figuring out the specific threats to your own home requires more work. Homeowners are often unaware of just how <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2019/06/25/lack-of-flood-risk-disclosure-law-leaves-homebuyers-at-risk">susceptible their property may be to flooding</a>.</p>
<p>To figure out your basic risk, start with <a href="https://msc.fema.gov/portal/search">Federal Emergency Management Agency flood maps</a>, but be aware that new construction can change how water flows and that <a href="https://theconversation.com/high-tide-flood-risk-is-accelerating-putting-coastal-economies-at-risk-164481">flood risks are rising</a> as the planet warms, particularly along the coasts but also from <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricane-ida-2-reasons-for-its-record-shattering-rainfall-in-nyc-and-the-northeast-long-after-the-winds-weakened-167252">more extreme downpours</a>. State and local emergency management departments’ websites may also have tools for reviewing localized hazard resources.</p>
<h2>How to make an emergency supply kit</h2>
<p>When a disaster strikes, you may have to get by without power, safe running water or help for several days. An important safety measure is to have emergency supplies on hand and in a safe place where you can easily get to them.</p>
<p>A disaster supply kit contains basic items that your household may need. <a href="https://www.ready.gov/sites/default/files/2021-02/ready_checklist.pdf">Ready.gov</a>, the U.S. government’s disaster preparedness website, suggests packing the following items:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Water: one gallon per person per day for several days.</p></li>
<li><p>Food: at least a three-day supply of non-perishable food, such as canned meats and fruits.</p></li>
<li><p>A battery-powered or hand-crank radio.</p></li>
<li><p>A flashlight.</p></li>
<li><p>A first-aid kit.</p></li>
<li><p>Plastic sheeting and duct tape that can help provide protection.</p></li>
<li><p>Also: extra batteries, a whistle, dust masks, moist towelettes, basic personal hygiene items, blankets, extra clothing, garbage bags, a wrench or pliers, a manual can opener, local maps and a cell phone with chargers.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Some important additions</h2>
<p>In addition to the items suggested by Ready.gov, there are other considerations that are useful when creating a supply kit.</p>
<p>For example, gather prescription medications and have an up-to-date list of the medications everyone in the household uses. This can be <a href="https://repositories.lib.utexas.edu/bitstream/handle/2152/83066/ROBERTSON-DISSERTATION-2020.pdf?sequence=1">especially important for older adults</a> and people on a life-sustaining medical treatment. With the pandemic ongoing, include extra <a href="https://theconversation.com/heres-why-the-cdc-recommends-wearing-masks-indoors-even-if-youve-been-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-19-165212">face masks</a> – you might spend time in a public disaster shelter.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man carried a dog and backpack to a waiting car in a smoky neighborhood as they prepare to evacuate from a wildfire." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423166/original/file-20210924-13-1uksnsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423166/original/file-20210924-13-1uksnsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423166/original/file-20210924-13-1uksnsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423166/original/file-20210924-13-1uksnsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423166/original/file-20210924-13-1uksnsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423166/original/file-20210924-13-1uksnsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423166/original/file-20210924-13-1uksnsk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Go-bags and disaster kits should cover the needs of pets, too.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/bakccountry-resident-grabs-his-dog-and-backpack-and-heads-news-photo/618891284">John Leyba/The Denver Post via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pet owners may also want to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.05.015">consider creating a separate disaster supply kit</a> for their animals. These supplies include veterinary records, pet food and a can opener, food and water bowls and medications.</p>
<p>Battery packs and portable USB power chargers are useful additions for a disaster supply kit when the power goes out. When Hurricane Harvey flooded in Houston in 2017, people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2050157919846522">used their smartphones to post pleas for help on social media</a>. Phone batteries can run down quickly, though, so be prepared. And make sure the portable charger is charged and ready to go.</p>
<p>Warnings and news reports don’t always <a href="https://doi.org/10.1615/Int.J.UncertaintyQuantification.2012003966">reflect the risks at the edges of a storm or other threats</a>, so be prepared even if you don’t appear to be in the center of the forecast storm track or expected direction of the wildfire.</p>
<h2>Grab and go</h2>
<p>Several types of disasters <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12654">may require evacuating</a> your home, and you may only have a few minutes to prepare. Having emergency supplies <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fcurrents.dis.223ac4322834aa0bb0d6824ee424e7f8">ready to go</a> is important if you need to leave right away.</p>
<p>These bags are different from household disaster supply kits because you might need to carry the bag on foot.</p>
<p>Typically, you would include food and water, a small battery-powered or hand-crank radio, a flashlight, extra batteries, a small first-aid kit, copies of crucial documents, local maps and a phone charger and battery pack.</p>
<h2>Communication plans matter</h2>
<p>Before a disaster forces you to move fast, make a <a href="https://www.ready.gov/evacuation">plan for where you could go</a>. Find destinations in several different directions in case one of the routes is blocked, and make sure everyone in your household and your emergency contacts know the plan.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ready.gov/plan">Households should have conversations about disasters</a>, including discussing their evacuation plan, who to contact, where to meet if separated, and where the emergency supply kit is stored.</p>
<p>September is National Preparedness Month, but the risks continue year-round. Winter storms that can knock the power out just round the corner. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00909882.2018.1544718">Talking about disasters</a> before they strike and planning ahead can make the process go more smoothly amid the chaos when a disaster arrives.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-social-media-apps-should-be-in-your-disaster-kit-83743">Why social media apps should be in your disaster kit</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article was updated Sept. 27, 2021, with maps of the most common disasters by state.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/168638/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Robertson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When a disaster strikes, you may be stuck for days without power or safe running water. Or you might only have time to grab a bag and go.Brett Robertson, Assistant Professor of Communication, University of South CarolinaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1606232021-06-10T20:07:51Z2021-06-10T20:07:51ZProceed to your nearest (virtual) exit: gaming technology is teaching us how people respond to emergencies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405577/original/file-20210610-15-1mz9j3s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5699%2C3837&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) aren’t just for gaming anymore, they’re also proving to be useful tools for disaster safety research. In fact, they could save lives. </p>
<p>Around the world, natural and human-made disasters such as earthquakes, bushfires and terrorist attacks threaten substantial economic loss and human life.</p>
<p>My <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/343809101_Virtual_and_Augmented_Reality_for_Human_Behaviour_in_Disasters_A_Review">research review</a> looked at 64 papers on the topic of using AR and VR-based experiments (mostly simulating emergency scenarios) to investigate human behaviour during disaster, provide disaster-related education and enhance the safety of built environments.</p>
<p>If we can investigate how certain factors influence people’s decisions about the best course of action during disaster, we can use this insight to further construct an array of VR and AR experiments.</p>
<h2>Finding the optimal fire desing</h2>
<p>Research has shown the potential of AR and VR in myriad disaster contexts. Both of these technologies involve digital visualisation. VR involves the visualisation of a complete digital scene, whereas AR allows digital objects to be superimposed over a real-life background.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405569/original/file-20210610-27-18bb7am.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This figure helps explain the difference between VR, AR and the real world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ruggiero Lovreglio</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>VR has already played a key role in designing safety evacuation systems for new buildings and infrastructure. For example, in past research my colleagues and I have used VR to identify which signage is the best to use in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10694-015-0462-5?shared-article-renderer">tunnels</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S000368701630182X">buildings</a> during emergency evacuations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405571/original/file-20210610-19-1xhvcov.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A participant in the CAVE (Cave Automatic Virtual Environment) at Lund University, in a VR-based tunnel evacuation experiment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ruggiero Lovreglio</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In these studies we asked participants to rank different signs using a questionnaire based on the “<a href="https://www.interaction-design.org/literature/book/the-encyclopedia-of-human-computer-interaction-2nd-ed/affordances">theory of affordances</a>”, which looks at what the physical environment or a specific object offers an individual. In other words, we explored how different signs can be sensed, understood and used by different people during emergencies.</p>
<p>Before building expensive new infrastructure, we can simulate it in VR form and test how different evacuation signage performs for participants. In the case of signage for tunnel exits, research showed:</p>
<p>— green or white flashing lights performed better than blue lights</p>
<p>— a flashing rate of one flash per second or four flashes per second is recommended over a slower rate of, say, one flash per four seconds.</p>
<p>— LED light sources performed better than single and double-strobe lights.</p>
<p>In another non-immersive VR study, we observed participants’ behaviours and <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S000368701630182X?via%3Dihub">identified</a> which sign was the best to direct people <em>away</em> from a specific exit in case of an emergency (as that exit might lead towards a fire, for instance). </p>
<p>The results showed red flashing lights helped evacuees identify the sign, and the sign itself was most effective with a green background marked with a red “X”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A sign with a green background marked with a red 'x'." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405572/original/file-20210610-27-rqa9ok.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A green background marked with a red ‘x’.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=5336038&fileOId=5336054">Joakim Olander (2015)</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>VR and AR are uniquely positioned to let experts study how humans behave during disasters — and to do so without physically <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349383121_A_Multi-role_Multi-user_Multi-technology_Virtual_Reality-based_Road_Tunnel_Fire_Simulator_for_Training_Purposes">harming anyone</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-augmented-reality-anyway-99827">What is augmented reality, anyway?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>From Pokemon Go to earthquake drills</h2>
<p>Research projects have tested how AR superimpositions can be used to guide people to safety during a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925753520301478?via%3Dihub">tsunami warning or earthquake</a>. </p>
<p>In theory, the same approach could be used in other contexts, such as during a terror attack. AR applications could be built to teach people how to act in case of terror attacks by following the rule of <em>escape, hide and tell</em>, as <a href="https://www.nationalsecurity.gov.au/Securityandyourcommunity/Pages/escape-hide-tell.aspx">advised</a> by the government. </p>
<p>Such virtual applications have great potential to educate thousands of people quickly and inexpensively. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10055-020-00447-5">Our latest VR study</a> indicated this may make them preferable to traditional training. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/antarctica-without-windchill-the-louvre-without-queues-how-to-travel-the-world-from-home-140174">Antarctica without windchill, the Louvre without queues: how to travel the world from home</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In some of our experiments, several participants were immersed in <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/project/Modelling-Decision-Making-in-Fire-Evacuation-based-on-Random-Utility-Theory">simulated fire emergencies</a> where they had to evacuate. We <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378437115006007?via%3Dihub">investigated</a> the factors that influenced how participants navigated a space to reach an exit, and <a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S096585641630550X">how they chose</a> between several exits in different fire and social conditions.</p>
<p>Studies on this front have highlighted humans are social animals. In line with “<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/social-influence">social influence theory</a>”, they tend to follow other people during emergencies. This is a crucial consideration for authorities tasked with designing or implementing disaster evacuation protocols.</p>
<p>Another common behaviour observed was that participants tended to use exits they were already familiar with. </p>
<p>While these findings aren’t necessarily surprising, they help confirm <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0013916585176003">existing theories</a> about public evacuation behaviours. They also help reinforce observations made during real-life evacuation scenarios — where human lives can hang in the balance.</p>
<p>The next challenge is to ensure that in the future, advanced AR and VR-based training applications do not traumatise or distress participants. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405574/original/file-20210610-23-q280pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A VR simulation of a metro station, used in one of our research studies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ruggiero Lovreglio</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The myth of overwhelming panic</h2>
<p>It’s worth noting that in the experiments there were no signs of “panic” among participants. Indeed, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fam.1083?casa_token=imMLq1iOm5gAAAAA%3Asx_oHwQ1LQOtKl1DRVobanKfKdYfykY0KHu6RCIojBJlMR6wS1ao-InKSHrobMrM9JxFP9V1Q_yjxOE">research</a> has shown feeling panicked is very rare in fire scenarios. </p>
<p>Rather, participants took several factors into account before choosing what they deemed was the best option. Generally, people in disaster situations try hard to choose the most reasonable option; whether it leads to danger is another matter. </p>
<p>Our research can help enhance the safety design of buildings, transport terminals and general evacuation protocols. In the meantime, it’s reassuring to know people will more or less rely on their rationality in emergency situations.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160623/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ruggiero Lovreglio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers are using mixed reality technologies to investigate how people behave in in emergency situations. The findings are helping shape disaster responses.Ruggiero Lovreglio, Senior Lecturer, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1603632021-05-13T00:45:36Z2021-05-13T00:45:36Z‘Top down’ disaster resilience doesn’t work. The National Recovery and Resilience Agency must have community at its heart<p>In the past ten years we have seen several major reports and announcements seeking to improve and transform the way emergency management works in Australia.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/helping-communities-rebuild-and-recover-natural-disasters">National Recovery and Resilience Agency</a>, announced last week and funded in Tuesday’s budget, is the latest.</p>
<p>After the 2009 Bushfires and the 2010-11 Queensland floods, the Council of Australian Governments endorsed the 2011 <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-strategy-disaster-resilience.pdf">National Strategy for Disaster Resilience</a>, which identified a need </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] to develop and embed new ways of doing things […] to improve disaster resilience and prevent complacency setting in once the memory of a recent disaster has subsided.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Now, the new National Recovery and Resilience Agency will </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] provide support to local communities during the relief and recovery phases following major disasters" along with hundreds of millions of dollars “invested in a new program of disaster preparation and mitigation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This will certainly improve the way Australia prepares for and recovers from the increasing number of natural disasters we face. But will this new agency deliver the change we need?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-has-pledged-over-800m-to-fight-natural-disasters-it-could-be-revolutionary-if-done-right-160348">The government has pledged over $800m to fight natural disasters. It could be revolutionary — if done right</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A focus on resilience</h2>
<p>A decade ago, few people in emergency management were embedding resilience into their thinking. </p>
<p>But more recently, the 2020 <a href="https://naturaldisaster.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/royal-commission-national-natural-disaster-arrangements-report">Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements</a>, established in the wake of the catastrophic fires of last summer, contained more than 300 references to resilience.</p>
<p>"Resilience” is part of the new agency’s title, as it is also with <a href="https://www.resilience.nsw.gov.au/">Resilience NSW</a>, the name of that state’s lead on disaster management.</p>
<p>Communities are now at the centre of emergency management policies. Organisations such as <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/community-recovery">Bushfire Recovery Victoria</a> state:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Recovery can’t be about government telling communities how it’s going to be. It must be about listening, working together, and ensuring that rebuilding and recovery are both locally driven and delivered.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Will the new agency further this change?</p>
<h2>Changing the relationships between communities and government</h2>
<p>While superb emergency response is clearly vital, the new National Recovery and Resilience Agency can build on the reforms of the past decade. It needs to further the shift to a much broader community-centred approach.</p>
<p>We must remember “disaster resilience” is not just some buzzword or brand name for grants or disaster-themed programs. It is about changing the relationships between communities and government.</p>
<p>This means recognising a community’s existing knowledge, skills, structures and networks, and using them to co-design programs and projects.</p>
<p>Resilient communities:</p>
<ul>
<li>function reliably and well under stress</li>
<li>successfully adapt</li>
<li>are self-reliant</li>
<li>have high levels of social support, social cohesion, and social capacity.</li>
</ul>
<p>Governments are moving away from the model in which officials plan and deliver a service after community consultation. Co-designing local initiatives involves the community and government joining up to design and deliver a program. It is <a href="https://www.nesta.org.uk/report/the-challenge-of-co-production/">more than just improving community consultation</a>. </p>
<p>This approach helps strengthen communities and their resilience — but it takes time and money. And that time and money must be invested <em>before</em> disaster strikes.</p>
<h2>Hope — but warning signs, too</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://naturaldisaster.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/royal-commission-national-natural-disaster-arrangements-report">Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements</a> recommended in its final <a href="https://naturaldisaster.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/royal-commission-national-natural-disaster-arrangements-report">report</a> last year that an agency such as this be created, dedicated to</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[…] championing resilience across the nation[…] Its remit should be to think broadly about all of the measures necessary to make the country resilient to natural disasters, and plan and respond accordingly.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Will the National Recovery and Resilience Agency be this champion? There is hope with the new agency’s <a href="https://recovery.gov.au/">guiding principle</a> of “locally led recovery”. But there are also some warning signs.</p>
<p>Australia already has the roadmap for this change in the <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-strategy-disaster-resilience.pdf">National Strategy for Disaster Resilience</a> and the 2018 <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-disaster-risk-reduction-framework.pdf">National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework</a>.</p>
<p>In carrying out its role of providing policy advice to government, the new agency must focus on fulfilling the vision of the existing key strategies and not reinvent them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-a-decade-after-the-black-saturday-fires-its-time-we-got-serious-about-long-term-disaster-recovery-planning-158078">More than a decade after the Black Saturday fires, it's time we got serious about long-term disaster recovery planning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There is some real money (<a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/helping-communities-rebuild-and-recover-natural-disasters">A$600 million</a>) for disaster preparation and mitigation. It is not a lot compared to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster-129433#:%7E:text=With%20costs%20approaching%20%24100%20billion%2C%20the%20fires%20are%20Australia's%20costliest%20natural%20disaster,-January%2016%2C%202020">billions</a> of dollars lost through natural disasters, but it’s a start. This type of investment must become core funding.</p>
<p>Welcome, too, is the funding for <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/helping-communities-rebuild-and-recover-natural-disasters">disaster recovery scenario training and two pilot Resilience Hubs</a>. The pilot resilience hubs will coordinate regional training and capability development across all levels of government.</p>
<p>However, this does not replace the loss of a dedicated centre like the former Australian Emergency Management Institute (AEMI), which <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/north-west/anger-at-closure-of-australian-emergency-management-institute-in-mt-macedon/news-story/5e21e0a8cffa62da105d74010e632605">closed after cuts</a> announced as part of the 2014-15 federal budget. </p>
<p>It is a good move to have a dedicated agency to provide support to local communities during the relief and recovery phases following major disasters, and to focus on long-term recovery.</p>
<p>We know effective recovery is planned in advance and is embedded in the initial disaster response. This is why resources must be invested in advance, and not just after disasters.</p>
<p>There are also some potentially complex governance, and intergovernmental, issues. How will the new agency relate to the work of <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about-us/our-portfolios/emergency-management">Emergency Management Australia</a> and to state recovery agencies?</p>
<h2>Locally led recovery is crucial</h2>
<p>Will the new National Recovery and Resilience Agency be able to lead the emergency management sector to the next phase in which communities are provided with resources to develop their own plans and tailor actions to local needs? </p>
<p>Or will it be another top-down government agency doing things <em>to</em> people rather than doing things <em>with</em> them?</p>
<p>Although policies now talk about being community centred, many communities still see themselves as being left out of emergency planning and recovery. Government agencies <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-know-our-community-better-than-they-do-why-local-knowledge-is-key-to-disaster-recovery-in-gippsland-158703">often lack local knowledge</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-know-our-community-better-than-they-do-why-local-knowledge-is-key-to-disaster-recovery-in-gippsland-158703">'We know our community better than they do': why local knowledge is key to disaster recovery in Gippsland</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Also, as disaster research expert Lisa Gibbs points out in another <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-a-decade-after-the-black-saturday-fires-its-time-we-got-serious-about-long-term-disaster-recovery-planning-158078">article</a> on The Conversation:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We must allow people to recover at their own pace, in their own way and have long-term support in place to do that.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Disaster resilience is not built through increased centralisation. Indeed, the core of resilience building is to let local communities develop customised approaches based on their own understanding of the risks with which they live. Doing this well requires trust and building relationships of trust require time.</p>
<p>Will initiatives be co-created with communities, based on existing community strengths, and reflecting the local context?</p>
<p>How will the success of the new agency be measured? It must be more than just delivering a certain number of grants and programs.</p>
<p>The real success of the National Recovery and Resilience Agency will be not only in what it does, but in how it carries out its work, in the relationships it forges, and in the trust it gains.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160363/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Duckworth has worked in the Victorian and New South Wales public sector leading significant policy and legislative reform initiatives in security and emergencies and intergovernmental relations.
</span></em></p>The real success of the National Recovery and Resilience Agency will be not only in what it does, but in how it carries out its work, in the relationships it forges, and in the trust it gains.Mark Duckworth, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Resilient and Inclusive Societies, Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1534522021-02-02T19:05:42Z2021-02-02T19:05:42ZI lived through Hurricane Katrina and helped design the rebuild – floods will always come, but we can build better to prepare<p>As the climate changes, floods and extreme rainfall events will become <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/australias-changing-climate.shtml">more intense</a>. In many cases, the <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v101y2020i3d10.1007_s11069-020-03887-z.html">most disadvantaged people are at highest risk from floods</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/caravan-communities-older-underinsured-and-overexposed-to-cyclones-storms-and-disasters-151840">least able to bounce back</a> when their homes and businesses are inundated. </p>
<p>I saw that dynamic first-hand when <a href="https://www.asla.org/contentdetail.aspx?id=33855">I lived through Hurricane Katrina</a> in New Orleans. Much of my work in its aftermath focused on finding new ways to allow the city to better absorb water, reducing flood risk and easing pressure on drainage systems. </p>
<p>How? By designing parks, open space and public infrastructure to hold excess water when flood strikes. That means better control of where floodwater ends up, reducing the risk to lives and property.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/disaster-season-is-here-do-you-have-a-resilience-action-plan-heres-how-the-small-town-of-tarnagulla-built-theirs-151570">Disaster season is here — do you have a Resilience Action Plan? Here's how the small town of Tarnagulla built theirs</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A different way of looking at disasters</h2>
<p>Hurricane Katrina left me with a very different way of looking at disasters; increasingly, I focused on where the disaster actually sits. For instance, the disaster was not Hurricane Katrina itself but the catastrophic failure of the New Orleans levee system. </p>
<p>When southeast Queensland and northern NSW floods, the problem isn’t just the greater frequency and intensity of storms. It’s that floodwater ends up in people’s houses and neighbourhoods because of changes we have made to drainage catchments. </p>
<p>So why is that happening — and what can we do to reduce it?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381274/original/file-20210129-23-1yhahik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4737%2C3158&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Floodwaters collect in a Brisbane suburb." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381274/original/file-20210129-23-1yhahik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C0%2C4737%2C3158&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381274/original/file-20210129-23-1yhahik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381274/original/file-20210129-23-1yhahik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381274/original/file-20210129-23-1yhahik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381274/original/file-20210129-23-1yhahik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381274/original/file-20210129-23-1yhahik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381274/original/file-20210129-23-1yhahik.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When a surface is hard or impermeable, water cannot be absorbed; it runs off quickly and collects in large quantities in inconvenient places.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Slow rain, fast rain</h2>
<p>In an undeveloped, naturally vegetated area, rain moves slowly; canopies and the naturally porous ground surface deflect and absorb the water.</p>
<p>When the surface is hard or impermeable, however, water cannot be absorbed; it runs off quickly and collects in large quantities downstream. That’s how water ends up in people’s homes and streets. It’s what happens when you clear and develop river and stream catchments and cover land with buildings, footpaths and concrete. </p>
<p>Our traditional approach has been to collect rainwater in gutters and move it quickly and efficiently downstream. But this deprives plants, animals and soil of much-needed water that would otherwise be absorbed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381628/original/file-20210201-21-1nwrkg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rain inundates cars." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381628/original/file-20210201-21-1nwrkg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381628/original/file-20210201-21-1nwrkg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381628/original/file-20210201-21-1nwrkg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381628/original/file-20210201-21-1nwrkg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381628/original/file-20210201-21-1nwrkg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=653&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381628/original/file-20210201-21-1nwrkg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=653&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381628/original/file-20210201-21-1nwrkg9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=653&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When flooding overwhelms the system, the consequences can be dangerous and costly.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It also raises the question: how do we dispose of large volumes of water when they collect in inconvenient places?</p>
<p>As these problems compound, we have to design larger and larger systems to try to dispose of the water. And when flooding overwhelms the system, the consequences can be deadly.</p>
<p>Traditionally, we have tried to armour rivers and waterfronts with levees, barriers and sea walls to keep all floodwaters out. Increasingly, however, planners, designers and engineers are looking to new approaches.</p>
<p>Instead of trying to keep all floodwaters out, we can design landscapes to accommodate the water without damaging cities or farmland.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water-105844">Design for flooding: how cities can make room for water</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Making room for rivers</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.dutchwatersector.com/news/room-for-the-river-programme#:%7E:text=In%202007%20the%20Dutch%20Government,the%20construction%20of%20flood%20bypasses.">Room for the River Project in the Netherlands</a> began in 2006 after serious flooding threatened the Rhine delta at the end of the 20th century. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/slmkG93SH3Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>The project (which encompasses the Rhine, the Meuse, the Waal and the IJssel) redesigns the river and floodplain by moving dikes further out and lowering floodplains and groynes. It creates “green rivers” (channels that allow floodwater to branch off from the main river) and removes obstacles from the channel so recurring floodwaters can spread out without causing damage. </p>
<p>A similar approach has been adopted in other places, such as the US state of <a href="https://floodtraining.vermont.gov/">Vermont</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZvKzfQsrzKc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Designing water into cities</h2>
<p>Using a similar approach at a smaller scale, we can design cities to accommodate floods. When the Victoria Park neighbourhood in the Sydney suburb of Zetland was developed in the late 1990s, all its public spaces, streets and open space were <a href="https://architectureau.com/articles/watering-sydney/">designed with an integrated water management system in mind</a>.</p>
<p>All park spaces were lowered to hold water after storms. Special vegetated channels called swales were constructed to slow down and absorb water.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381571/original/file-20210201-19-1b7q1li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381571/original/file-20210201-19-1b7q1li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/381571/original/file-20210201-19-1b7q1li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381571/original/file-20210201-19-1b7q1li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381571/original/file-20210201-19-1b7q1li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381571/original/file-20210201-19-1b7q1li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381571/original/file-20210201-19-1b7q1li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/381571/original/file-20210201-19-1b7q1li.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Special vegetated channels called swales can be constructed next to roads to slow and absorb water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4756030">Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) – US Department of Agriculture</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under the area’s central park (Joynton Park) is a <a href="https://architectureau.com/articles/watering-sydney/">water storage basin</a>. Rainwater flowing into this underground basin has been filtered through the plants and soil of the swales, and is then re-used in <a href="https://www.cityartsydney.com.au/artwork/storm-waters/">local water features</a> and for irrigation.</p>
<p>All these adjustments mean the area can flood in a way that causes minor inconvenience rather than disruption. By controlling where floodwater collects, we can reduce the damage.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-in-a-flood-zone-heres-a-way-to-do-it-and-reduce-the-risks-86608">Higher density in a flood zone? Here's a way to do it and reduce the risks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Clever design to slow the flow</h2>
<p>There are many examples around the world of buildings and landscapes where flooding is “designed in”. Here are three examples I know well, through the involvement of my firm Spackman Mossop Michaels. </p>
<p>For Sydney’s <a href="http://spackmanmossopmichaels.com/project/moore-park-bus-interchange/">Moore Park Bus Interchange</a>, we suggested large areas of paving be designed to let water through into a massive gravel bed underneath, where rainwater is stored before percolating into the area’s groundwater. This allows floodwater to be directed into and absorbed by the earth, rather than simply rushed into stormwater systems that can overflow.</p>
<p>In New Orleans, where land subsidence left the city below sea level and unable to drain naturally, the <a href="https://www.architectmagazine.com/project-gallery/rosa-f-keller-library-community-center-966">Rosa Keller Library</a> was severely flooded when levees broke after Hurricane Katrina. Its redevelopment included a <a href="https://www.groundwater.org/action/home/raingardens.html">rain garden</a> of native irises to store and hold stormwater before releasing it slowly into the stormwater system.</p>
<p>The New Orleans Redevelopment Authority has also built “<a href="https://www.groundwater.org/action/home/raingardens.html">rain gardens</a>” on <a href="http://spackmanmossopmichaels.com/project/nora-rain-gardens/">many of its vacant lots</a> to store and filter stormwater. </p>
<p>Through clever design interventions like these, we can keep stormwater out of the drainage system for as long as possible, effectively increasing its capacity.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-pm-wants-to-fast-track-mega-projects-for-pandemic-recovery-heres-why-thats-a-bad-idea-136838">The PM wants to fast-track mega-projects for pandemic recovery. Here's why that’s a bad idea</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153452/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elizabeth Mossop is a founding director of Spackman Mossop Michaels landscape architects in Australia and the USA.</span></em></p>We can design parks, open space and public infrastructure to hold excess water when flood strikes. That means better control of where floodwater ends up, reducing the risk to lives and property.Elizabeth Mossop, Dean of Design, Architecture and Building, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1455132020-09-15T11:54:04Z2020-09-15T11:54:04ZDisaster work is often carried out by prisoners – who get paid as little as 14 cents an hour despite dangers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357746/original/file-20200912-24-1oc0vvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3494%2C2326&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prisoners clearing vegetation to prevent the spread of a wildfire in Yucaipa, California</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/inmate-firefighters-from-oak-glen-conservation-camp-clear-news-photo/860663322?adppopup=true">David McNew/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Efforts to beat back wildfires <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/09/12/912304025/wildfires-latest-helpful-weather-oregon-official-warns-of-mass-fatality-incident">ravaging Western states in the U.S.</a> have been hampered this year by depleted numbers of “<a href="https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2015/09/28/firefighting-inmates-in-california-fill-a-void-gain-a-lot/">orange angels</a>” – incarcerated workers deployed as firefighters.</p>
<p>Their lower numbers coincide with the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/22/us/california-wildfires-prisoners.html">early release for eligible prisoners</a> and the quarantining of others to combat the spread of COVID-19.</p>
<p>The potential impact that having fewer prisoners to draw upon highlights the crucial role that incarcerated workers play in disaster response. While many people are aware that prisoners work to <a href="http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/11/25/fire-and-punishmentinmatefirefightersonthefrontlines.html">help contain wildfires in California and elsewhere</a>, less well known is the role incarcerated workers play as a labor source across a variety of disasters throughout the country.</p>
<p>As a social scientist, I study the impact of disasters on incarcerated populations. I recently <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rhc3.12191">co-authored a study</a> on the role of incarcerated workers in state emergency operations plans – the primary emergency planning documents for state governments. We found that 30 out of the 47 states analyzed, including California, Texas and Florida, had explicit instructions to use prisoners for emergencies and disasters. Furthermore, we identified at least 34 disaster-related tasks that states assign to incarcerated workers. Delaware, New Jersey and Tennessee were not included in our analysis as their plans were not publicly available.</p>
<p>These include work that requires minimal training such as making sandbags, clearing debris, handling supplies and caring for pets for evacuees. But it also includes roles that require specialized training like fighting fires, collecting and disposing contaminated animal carcasses and cleaning up hazardous materials.</p>
<p>Some of these tasks put incarcerated workers at risk of injury or ill health.</p>
<h2>14 cents an hour</h2>
<p>Prison systems have long championed the work of incarcerated persons in emergencies and disasters as a demonstration of the value of prisons to local communities and the state. </p>
<p>State prison systems often have internal policies that guide the use of incarcerated persons to assist with disaster operations. For example, the Alabama Department of Corrections’ <a href="http://www.doc.alabama.gov/docs/AdminRegs/AR010.pdf">administrative regulations</a> dictate that in the event of a disaster, “the major support of the [department] will be manpower” including the use of “inmate labor.”</p>
<p>In addition, state laws across the U.S. often specifically state that incarcerated workers may be assigned to work in disaster conditions. </p>
<p>For example, Georgia allows for incarcerated workers to be <a href="http://rules.sos.state.ga.us/GAC/125-3-5-.04?urlRedirected=yes&data=admin&lookingfor=125-3-5-.04">required to work in conditions that may jeopardize their health</a> if an emergency threatens the lives of others or of public property. Meanwhile Colorado passed legislation in 1998 that created the <a href="https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/cdoc/news/canon-city-swift-responds-wyoming-fire">Inmate Disaster Relief Program</a> under which the state can “form a labor pool” to “fight forest fires, help with flood relief, and assist in the prevention of or clean up after other natural or man-made disasters.”</p>
<p>As with wildfire programs, incarcerated workers are looked to in times of disaster primarily because they are a low-cost substitution for civilian workers. Incarcerated workers are <a href="https://www.prisonpolicy.org/blog/2017/04/10/wages/">paid very low wages</a> averaging between US$0.14 and $0.63 an hour. And some states, including Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia and Texas, don’t pay incarcerated workers at all. </p>
<p>The cost of inmate labor is offset through federal subsidies. FEMA’s <a href="https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/fema_public-assistance-program-and-policy-guide_v4_6-1-2020.pdf">public assistance program</a> provides states with “funding for prisoner transportation to the worksite and extraordinary costs of security guards, food and lodging.” This provides a significant financial incentive to use incarcerated workers for disaster labor. After Hurricane Michael in 2018, FEMA awarded the Florida Department of Corrections $311,305 for <a href="https://www.fema.gov/news-release/20200220/fema-awards-more-2m-public-assistance-grants">debris removal</a>.</p>
<h2>Forced labor</h2>
<p>Not all disaster work is voluntary for incarcerated persons. The <a href="https://www.history.com/news/13th-amendment-slavery-loophole-jim-crow-prisons">13th Amendment</a> to the U.S. Constitution allows for incarcerated persons to be compelled to participate in labor without their consent as part of their punishment. That applies to disaster work too.</p>
<p>The Constitution’s <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/interactive-constitution/amendment/amendment-viii">Eighth Amendment</a> “forbids knowingly compelling an inmate to perform labor that is beyond the inmate’s strength, dangerous to his or her life or health, or unduly painful.” However, in the context of disasters, it is challenging to know whether or not the situation or the environment is truly safe. And little is known about the training prisoners receive.</p>
<p>If incarcerated persons refuse to participate, they <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/09/prison-labor-in-america/406177/#:%7E:text=With%20few%20exceptions%2C%20inmates%20are,hour%2C%20if%20anything%20at%20all.">may face serious consequences</a>, such as being sent to solitary confinement, the loss of earned time off their sentences or the loss of family visitation. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nfpa.org/%2F-%2Fmedia/Files/News-and-Research/Fire-statistics-and-reports/Emergency-responders/osFFF.pdf">Deaths of incarcerated firefighters are reported</a> alongside those of civilian firefighters, and there is no way to accurately track the number of prisoners who have died or been injured during disaster-related work. However, there are known examples of fatalities. In 2003, the South Dakota Department of Corrections <a href="https://doc.sd.gov/adult/work/emergency.aspx">“Emergency Response Inmate Work Program”</a> was scrutinized after a 22-year-old man, Neil Ambrose, was <a href="https://rapidcityjournal.com/news/state-and-regional/family-of-electrocuted-inmate-sues/article_823fa55d-68a5-56ce-b3fa-4cbf9288b245.html">electrocuted</a> by a downed power line while cleaning up debris after a storm.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Ambrose <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rhc3.12191">reportedly expressed prior concerns</a> about the hazardous work but was told he would be charged with “disrupting a work zone” and would be sent to solitary confinement if he did not participate. Later, the correctional officer in charge of Ambrose and those on the work crew was <a href="https://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-8th-circuit/1035052.html">found responsible</a> for his death in that he knew the downed power line was a safety threat. It was also later shown that the only training Ambrose had received was a short video on safely operating chainsaws.</p>
<h2>Exploitation and harm</h2>
<p>Some advocates for prisoners’ rights have begun drawing attention to the vulnerability of incarcerated workers in disasters. After Hurricane Harvey in 2017, the NAACP Environmental and Climate Justice program published a guidebook called <a href="https://naacp.org/climate-justice-resources/in-the-eye-of-the-storm/">“In the Eye of the Storm”</a> to help communities make disaster response and recovery processes more equitable. The guidebook includes suggestions for how to advocate specifically for worker protections for incarcerated persons. Community members are encouraged to ask about whether the incarcerated workers have received relevant training and adequate protective equipment and if their participation in the work is voluntary.</p>
<p>Incarcerated workers are deeply embedded throughout emergency management in the United States. Yet so much attention remains focused on the most visible and well-known programs, their role – and the potential for exploitation and harm – in many other disasters remains overlooked.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J. Carlee Purdum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Relying on incarcerated workers in emergencies such as the wildfires ravaging parts of the US is a cheap alternative for states. But what protections are there for prisoners?J. Carlee Purdum, Research Assistant Professor, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1446222020-08-18T09:34:31Z2020-08-18T09:34:31ZMauritius oil spill: potential government failures should be investigated – expert<p>The stranding of the MV Wakashio is one of the biggest environmental disasters in the history of the western Indian Ocean. While the full scale of the disaster is not yet known, the 1,000 tons of oil and diesel that leaked close to one of the greatest marine treasures of Mauritius <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nishandegnarain/2020/08/14/toxic-in-the-tropics-the-invisible-killer-now-in-mauritian-waters/">threatens to destroy</a> this <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauritius-is-reeling-from-a-spreading-oil-spill-and-people-are-angry-with-how-the-government-has-handled-it-144288">precious habitat</a>. Recovery will be long and the disaster will occupy Mauritius for years to come.</p>
<p>Questions now arise: could the accident and the spill have been prevented? Was the country prepared? Did the coastguard and the company hired to pump oil from the stricken ship react in the right way?</p>
<p>Neither the government, nor the ship owner and salvage company will likely have an interest in such questions being answered. But an independent public investigation must be launched into the government and industry response to this disaster.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/mauritius-is-reeling-from-a-spreading-oil-spill-and-people-are-angry-with-how-the-government-has-handled-it-144288">Mauritius is reeling from a spreading oil spill – and people are angry with how the government has handled it</a>
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<h2>Was the country unprepared?</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.safeseas.net/mauritius-oil-spill-was-the-government-unprepared/">The government was well aware of the risk</a>. Since the 1990s, Mauritius has received substantial capacity-building assistance to prevent an oil spill.</p>
<p>The country was a core beneficiary in two multi-million-dollar World Bank projects: the US$4-million <a href="https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/646901475073748617/africa-western-indian-ocean-islands-oil-spill-contingency-planning-gef">Western Indian Ocean Island Oil Spill Contingency Plan</a> from 1998 and 2003, and the US$24-million <a href="https://www.thegef.org/project/western-indian-ocean-marine-highway-development-and-coastal-and-marine-contamination">Western Indian Ocean Marine Highway Development and Coastal and Marine Contamination Prevention Project</a> from 2007-2012.</p>
<p>Mauritius receives support under the UN <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/nairobiconvention/">Nairobi Convention</a> but also several <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2019.1660632">maritime security capacity building programmes</a> in the region. As late as March 2020, <a href="https://www.nairobiconvention.org/strengthening-preparedness-and-response-to-marine-spills-in-the-western-indian-ocean/">Mauritius gave an update on its preparedness</a> at an international workshop.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2019.1660632">a recent article</a> we showed such capacity building is often experimental, focused too much on planning and strategy rather than implementation.</p>
<p>Yet Mauritius also had past experience. In 2016, a similar accident occurred. <a href="https://gcaptain.com/insurer-says-mv-benita-grounding-a-medical-issue-not-mutiny/">Back then the country was lucky</a> – the MV Benita, which crashed just 7km from Grand Port, not far from where the MV Wakashio is, sat for five weeks and was then refloated with the aim of towing to India, before <a href="https://theconversation.com/mauritius-is-reeling-from-a-spreading-oil-spill-and-people-are-angry-with-how-the-government-has-handled-it-144288">sinking 90km offshore of Mauritius</a>. A major oil spill was prevented in that case.</p>
<p>The fact that the country lacked a sufficient amount of equipment to rapidly contain the Wakashio spill, indicates that despite all the training and experience, Mauritius was still not prepared.</p>
<h2>Could the collision have been avoided?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/nishandegnarain/2020/08/09/how-satellites-traced-the-fateful-journey-of-the-ship-that-led-to--mauritius-worst-oil-spill-disaster/#ef32be65b428">Satellite evidence showed the Wakshio was on a collision course</a> to Mauritius, hitting the reefs at Pointe D’Esny at ocean-cruising speed. Its route clearly deviated from the traffic that usually passes by the island.</p>
<p>The coastguard could have detected this and sent out a patrol craft. While the capacity of the coastguard is limited, would it have been possible to reach the vessel in time before it hit?</p>
<h2>Was the reaction to the grounding appropriate?</h2>
<p>Once the Wakashio grounded, the coastguard was quick on site. Initial containment measures were taken and booms deployed. A salvage company was contracted to refloat the vessel and pump out the 4,000 tons of oil and diesel, yet two weeks after the initial collision not much had been done. On August 6 the environmental disaster started to unfold, when the first oil spilled. On August 15, the ship <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53797009">split in two</a>.</p>
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<p>The government indicated that <a href="http://www.govmu.org/English/News/Pages/Grounding-of-MV-Wakashio-at-Pointe-D%E2%80%99Esny-salvage-team-and-first-tug-PSV-Standford-Hawk-in-Mauritius.aspx">bad weather was to blame</a> for its slow response. Yet was there a discussion of alternative strategies? Did the contracted company have the right expertise to prevent an oil spill? Was there too much focus on pumping out oil and not enough on preventing a spill? How close was the crisis coordination between the government, the coastguard and foreign experts? </p>
<p>Oil spill start-ups, such as Harbo, <a href="https://www.harbo-technologies.com/">claim</a> that they could have been in the country within 24 hours after the initial grounding if they had been invited. Within 72 hours the appropriate equipment could have secured the vessel, preventing much of the consequences from a spill. Alternative courses of action for the government would have been available. </p>
<p>The vessel most likely would still have leaked oil and eventually split, yet the spread of the oil and the contamination of the shores may have been contained. </p>
<h2>Why was there no response from the region?</h2>
<p>The EU, the UK and other actors, as we <a href="https://www.palgrave.com/gp/book/9783030500634">show in a forthcoming book</a>, have substantially invested in building regional maritime security architecture in the western Indian Ocean. This includes a maritime surveillance centre as well as a centre for regional operational coordination designed to provide early warning and coordination in the region for emergencies like this.</p>
<p>It is bad news that after years of such efforts, the regional bodies were not equipped to react and respond in order to support the government of Mauritius.</p>
<h2>Action, not lip service</h2>
<p>These are only some of the questions that an independent inquiry into Mauritius’ ongoing predicament will have to investigate and assess. </p>
<p>An independent environmental assessment will also be required. And it will be in the hands of Mauritian civil society and the global community of conservation activists to ensure that a commission and inquiry is launched urgently.</p>
<p>The Indian Ocean Commission or the Indian Ocean Rim Association, active in governing the regional waters, could provide a format for this. Pressure and support from India, France or Japan and other states that have already provided emergency aid will also be necessary.</p>
<p>This inquiry will need also to offer recommendations for how a similar disaster in the region can be avoided and the architecture upgraded to offer faster response – developing a regional facility for example. And this time, action, not lip service, should be demanded of the Mauritian government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Bueger receives funding from from Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), ES/S008810/1. His research is also supported by the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs under the Analysing Maritime Insecurity in Ghana (AMARIS) grant</span></em></p>Independent investigations will need to look into potential failures in response to the disastrous Mauritian oil spill.Christian Bueger, Professor of International Relations, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1396042020-06-19T13:44:23Z2020-06-19T13:44:23ZSierra Leone faces coronavirus as rainy season hits – local disaster planning will be key<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342735/original/file-20200618-41209-pv37mr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C15%2C1019%2C665&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Local coroanvirus awareness raising in Funkia Market, Sierra Leone. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/trocaire/49745447971/in/photolist-2iKFuGE-2iLvwhY-2iMMD3W-2iMQqyV-2iLvwip-2iLsJtu-2iLxaV7-2gRohuJ-qPTG6N-2iMS6Bi-pSY1Nm-qPTGv5-pSY3of-2iKFuJU-qMF8E5-qPY4gZ-qxw4te-qxw4iK-qxoRrw-qMF8oU-qPY46t-2iLvwjm-2gRogqj-2gRofzG-qPY4t2-2gRnwgN-2gRnxEe-2iMQqzr-2iLsJt4-2iMMD2U-2iMQqAJ-2gRnwyX-2j6gBu1-2j6cs4S">Trocaire/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The government of Sierra Leone called a state of emergency on March 25, seven days before the first case of COVID-19 was even confirmed. The virus has spread steadily since then, with <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html">1,272 cases confirmed and 51 deaths</a> as of June 19. </p>
<p>At the same time, the country has begun the rapid countdown to the full onset of the annual rainy season, which raises challenges of its own, especially for the flood-prone local communities in the capital, Freetown. In mid-2019, Freetown and other major Sierra Leonean cities were <a href="http://floodlist.com/africa/sierra-leone-flash-floods-freetown-august-2019">engulfed in major flooding</a>. Before this, in 2017, more than <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2018/04/08/599526907/life-doesnt-go-on-after-the-mudslides-in-sierra-leone">1,000 people died in major mudslides</a> in the capital.</p>
<p>This year, there has been recognition that more forthright action is required. My colleagues and I are currently working with Sierra Leone’s Department of Disaster Management and Freetown City Council to create disaster preparedness guides for district councillors, disaster managers and local volunteers. The goal is to have several guides and handbooks available by July 2020 across four major cities of Sierra Leone to improve scenario planning if multiple disasters happen at once. </p>
<p>In recent years, there has been a strong focus among those who plan for disasters to build more robust forms of resilience in local communities. Not least in Sierra Leone, where – like most of Africa – disaster management relies heavily on local volunteers and traditional forms of community leadership. </p>
<p>Across Africa, <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS?locations=ZG">there are many</a> poverty-stricken slums and informal settlements. These are vulnerable to natural hazards such as flooding, suffer from overcrowding, and often lack running water and electricity. </p>
<p>As past experiences of Ebola in west Africa demonstrated, it’s also important to focus on the local communities. Poor handling of pandemics and other natural disasters by national governments and international institutions <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-019-00238-w">can lead to resistance</a>, inertia and non-compliance among communities and influential community leaders. In the case of the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak, there were many instances where <a href="https://resource-allocation.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12962-020-00207-x">local communities did not trust or were slow to heed advice</a> that ultimately delayed responses to the disease and ended up costing further lives. </p>
<p>Today, local communities in Sierra Leone could be confronted with a perfect storm when it comes to preparing for future disasters and events. Better disaster management is an imperative, particularly in the face of three inter-linked challenges. </p>
<h2>Coronavirus transmission</h2>
<p>First, there is the impact of COVID-19. Community transmission is becoming a stark reality. The situation in both Sierra Leone and elsewhere in Africa remains highly challenging given <a href="https://www.afro.who.int/sites/default/files/2018-08/State%20of%20health%20in%20the%20African%20Region.pdf">the fragile state of many African health services</a> and the limitation of bringing external humanitarian assistance on the ground during the crisis. It’s possible that overcrowded urban communities in some parts of Africa will become sources of future COVID-19 outbreaks and even be an endemic source of reoccurring COVID-19 incidents in the future.</p>
<p>Current COVID-19 prevention tools, such as social distancing and the prevention of mass gatherings to reduce the spread of the disease, are highly challenging to administer in such areas. In many ways, the local communities in Sierra Leone – and Africa more widely – often do the best they can with what is available. Yet, the reality is that COVID-19 is likely to have an impact on the local communities.</p>
<h2>Climate threat</h2>
<p>Second, the practical, discernible impacts of climate change mean that many local communities are already facing worsening dry seasons with increased fires and droughts, followed by more unpredictable and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/7/12/144/htm">erratic rainy seasons</a>. Cities in west Africa, such as Accra in Ghana or Freetown in Sierra Leone, or central African cities such as Yaounde in Cameroon, now endure almost annual experiences of flash flooding and landslides that <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/FS-06-2018-0068/full/html">threaten to overwhelm</a> poverty-stricken communities. </p>
<p>There is a growing <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/11157_2017_2">paradox of frequency</a> here. Local disaster managers and volunteers must meet public expectations to handle ever more frequent disaster. But they also recognise there is very little real time to build this local knowledge and review capacity before the onset of the next deluge, flood or fire.</p>
<h2>Overlapping disasters</h2>
<p>Third, local communities in Africa are increasingly aware that they also face multiple hazards that are very likely to overlap over the rest of 2020. </p>
<p>There will be major difficulties in delivering effective responses to flood and pandemics such as COVID-19 simultaneously. The standard response to flooding in Freetown is to move those affected to the safety of a large stadium or hall or school, placing them out of harm’s way in often large, robust locations. Yet this poses challenges for carrying out measures needed to contain COVID-19, such as avoiding large gatherings or social distancing. </p>
<p>Local communities need to think more deeply through how they plan for these combinations of possible disasters to save lives in the future. And yet, as my own research is finding, this raises a very serious challenge in that the local areas often lack even the most basic and accessible documentation, guidance and training in risk assessment and disaster management plans.</p>
<p>It’s often said that all disasters are local. The rest of 2020 is likely to prove this point more than ever for resource scarce, often poverty-stricken local communities in Africa. There is an urgent need here that must be addressed as quickly as possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139604/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Professor Lee Miles receives funding from the UK's Global Research Challenges Fund (GCRF) under the auspices of Driving African Capacity-Building in Disaster Management (AFRICAB) Research Project (2018-2020) based at Bournemouth University Disaster Management Centre (BUDMC).</span></em></p>Overlapping disasters of COVID-19 and flooding could be a serious threat for Sierra Leone’s capital Freetown.Lee Miles, Professor of Crisis & Disaster Management, Bournemouth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1384012020-05-19T12:12:12Z2020-05-19T12:12:12ZSchool buildings need more space to safely reopen<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335464/original/file-20200515-138634-863q8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=39%2C503%2C4369%2C1471&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A teacher drops by her idled classroom.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/teacher-collects-supplies-needed-to-continue-remote-news-photo/1224853619">Michael Loccisano/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When COVID-19 first arose, the battle cry was “<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-cases-are-growing-exponentially-heres-what-that-means-135181">flatten the curve</a>.” As states make <a href="https://apnews.com/b984f9a970d7a81a520dbd456f92cd59">plans to reopen</a>, get ready for another important strategy: “<a href="https://www.gensler.com/research-insight/blog/what-happens-when-we-return-to-the-workplace">de-densify</a>.”</p>
<p>Simply put, to make it safer to go to schools, restaurants and other places where people have to go in big groups, these places will have to become less crowded than they used to be.</p>
<p>It may help to think of the density of a building as a fraction. You’ll find the right fraction by calculating the number of total people inside – the numerator – divided by the walkable floor area – the denominator. There are two ways to make that building less crowded. Either decrease the numerator by reducing the number of people inside the space or increase the denominator by expanding the physical space available. </p>
<p>To flatten the curve, most U.S. schools reduced the numerator to zero when about <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/map-coronavirus-and-school-closures.html">51 million children stopped attending school</a> in person. Over 100,000 schools are now <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/section/multimedia/map-coronavirus-and-school-closures.html">closed through the remainder of the 2019-2020 school year</a>. </p>
<p>There’s no agreement yet on what it will take to get classrooms safely humming again. To observe the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendation that everyone <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/social-distancing.html">remain 6 feet apart</a>, another government agency has suggested that schools aim for a <a href="https://www.usfa.fema.gov/coronavirus/planning_response/occupancy_social_distancing.html">density of 1 student per 113 square feet</a>. Anecdotal evidence suggests <a href="https://spaces4learning.com/Articles/2015/12/01/School-Capacity.aspx">classroom density was around 1 student per 20-30 square feet</a> before the pandemic.</p>
<p>How can schools find or create more space?</p>
<h2>Increasing school space</h2>
<p>We are <a href="https://www.informs.org/Explore/Operations-Research-Analytics">operations researchers</a> who study educational logistics problems such as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=q8TWVIEAAAAJ&hl=en">school bus transportation</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=1vTXCPAAAAAJ&hl=en">making decisions with tight budgets</a>.</p>
<p>There are widespread <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/should-schools-reopen-kids-role-pandemic-still-mystery">public health concerns about whether it will be safe to reopen schools</a> after what would have been the usual summer break. Information changes daily. For example, there are reports of a new <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-mysterious-illness-is-striking-children-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic-but-is-it-kawasaki-disease-137986">illness striking children</a> that appears to be related to COVID-19.</p>
<p>Still, schools need to plan to reopen, perhaps in time for the start of the 2020-2021 school year.</p>
<p>There’s more to it than figuring out how to maintain enough distance between students when they’re sitting at their desks. Schools also have to decide how to handle everyday situations such as kids playing basketball in the school gym, eating in the cafeteria or sitting together in the auditorium for a school assembly.</p>
<p>Students need to be able to safely enter and exit buildings without bumping into each other. They’ll need to have the room needed to pass one another in hallways. Districts may need to purchase and distribute masks and other personal protective equipment to teachers, janitorial staff, students and others.</p>
<p>Students will need to keep the sharing of calculators and technology to a minimum and make a frequent habit of wiping down all devices. They’ll have to wash their hands more often and for longer periods of time. The frequency and intensity of cleaning and sanitizing floors, walls, tables and other surfaces will need to increase as well. </p>
<p>To make this easier, one general approach under consideration is to reduce the number of students in school buildings at one time.</p>
<p>Some states, like <a href="https://www.southbendtribune.com/news/education/k-12-students-in-indiana-likely-to-have-hybrid-experience-next-school-year/article_3e0046c8-895b-11ea-b793-ab666f70dc15.html">Indiana</a> and <a href="https://www.beaconjournal.com/news/20200506/one-option-for-ohio-schools-this-fall-two-days-in-person-per-week">Ohio</a>, are considering a mix of remote and in-person instruction, with students alternating what they do day by day.</p>
<p>A related strategy is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/04/24/842528906/what-it-might-look-like-to-safely-reopen-schools">staggering attendance</a> during the same school day. Some students would attend in the morning and some in the afternoon. Halving the number of kids present would make it easier for schools to follow through with <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/guidance-for-schools.html#schools-prepare">CDC guidelines</a> to reduce congestion in classrooms, hallways and cafeterias. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335861/original/file-20200518-83367-j6vw6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335861/original/file-20200518-83367-j6vw6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335861/original/file-20200518-83367-j6vw6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335861/original/file-20200518-83367-j6vw6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335861/original/file-20200518-83367-j6vw6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335861/original/file-20200518-83367-j6vw6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335861/original/file-20200518-83367-j6vw6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335861/original/file-20200518-83367-j6vw6y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=517&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Schools were too crowded even before everything changed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/students-use-their-ipads-to-take-a-quiz-in-their-news-photo/1094671290">Lewis Geyer/Digital First Media/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Finding new space</h2>
<p>Some <a href="https://www.the74million.org/article/richmond-cunningham-reopening-schools-safely-brings-risks-and-challenges-heres-one-way-some-districts-could-get-it-done/">education leaders</a> have proposed considering another strategy: finding new space.</p>
<p>Splitting students in different classes or grades across multiple locations lowers the building density. This can be done by moving half of a school’s students and teachers to another location. Students who attend at each location could be more spread out than if they were all in just one place. </p>
<p>One way to do this is to keep high school instruction fully remote in the fall, and teach <a href="https://www.the74million.org/article/richmond-cunningham-reopening-schools-safely-brings-risks-and-challenges-heres-one-way-some-districts-could-get-it-done/">younger students in vacated high school buildings</a>. </p>
<p>Our research suggests there is <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2944087">another strategy to find new space</a> for schools.</p>
<p>For years, public, charter, and private schools have shared space with community organizations such as churches and community centers that accommodate programs running before or after official school hours.</p>
<p>Schools could use YMCAs, public libraries or community centers to expand the space they have available. If schools split attendance between their main school site and those other sites, then most students at all grade levels in a district could potentially have an in-person option when schools reopen. </p>
<h2>Different strokes</h2>
<p>In the end, the best approach will be depend on what’s right for specific schools and their local communities. </p>
<p>Operations researchers have helped find solutions since the 1960s. For example, they assisted with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0038-0121(68)90014-1">school desegregation in the 1960s and 1970s</a>. More recently, they aided high schools that <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/116/13/5943.full.pdf">shifted their start times to let students get more sleep</a>. </p>
<p>Today, operations researchers can help local school systems face the threat of COVID-19.</p>
<p>[<em>You need to understand the coronavirus pandemic, and we can help.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-help">Read The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138401/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Samantha Keppler receives funding from the National Science Foundation to explore school-community partnerships and resource sharing. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Smilowitz receives funding from the National Science Foundation to explore transportation in public schools</span></em></p>Making classrooms, cafeterias and other spaces less crowded will be essential. There are two main ways to do that.Samantha Keppler, Assistant Professor of Technology and Operations, Stephen M. Ross School of Business, University of MichiganKaren Smilowitz, James N. and Margie M. Krebs Professor in Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1368882020-05-11T14:13:18Z2020-05-11T14:13:18ZWhy aren’t people in Accra better prepared for floods? The key is in communication<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330978/original/file-20200428-110742-t73zal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Rains regularly displace thousands in Africa. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vadim Petrakov/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Floods are the second most prevalent and devastating natural disasters in sub-Saharan Africa. Between <a href="https://cred.be/sites/default/files/CredCrunch56.pdf">2000 and 2019</a> floods accounted for 64% of all disaster events in the region. They affected the livelihoods of about 53 million people and killed more than 14,000. Sierra Leone, Ghana, Nigeria, Gabon, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mozambique were hit severely over this period. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.undrr.org/implementing-sendai-framework/what-sf">Policies</a> and strategies to confront the increasing flood <a href="https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/app.20170066">frequency</a> and deaths on the continent are on international, regional and national agendas. Most of these documents acknowledge that information is an important resource for flood preparedness. The recent <a href="http://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018/10/B-WDR-2018-EN-LR.pdf#66">World Disaster Report</a>, for example, states that the impact of floods has reduced in some parts of the world because the general public obtained useful information about the risk and acted on it. </p>
<p>Mass information campaigns through radio, TV, newspapers, audio vans and weather reports have been <a href="https://nova.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/services/Download/uon:34372/ATTACHMENT01">ramped up</a> globally in the past decade to improve flood disaster awareness. Such efforts are premised on the <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1088/0963-6625/2/4/003">idea</a> that people’s ability to prepare depends on getting the right information about the flood. They need to know – in clear language, at the right time – what might happen and when, and what they can do.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, it appears that <a href="https://gar.undrr.org/sites/default/files/reports/2019-05/full_gar_report.pdf">efforts</a> in flood risk communication haven’t always helped the general public to prepare better. </p>
<p>Ghana’s government conducts flood education campaigns annually before the rainy season. But in the country’s flood-prone informal settlements, where about <a href="https://theconversation.com/accras-informal-settlements-are-easing-the-citys-urban-housing-crisis-104266">62%</a> of the urban population reside, floods still have devastating consequences. In one of the most recent floods in the Greater Accra region in June 2015, one-third of the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420919305977#bib67">152</a> fatalities were within or around informal settlements.</p>
<h2>The research</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212420919305977?via%3Dihub">study</a> set out to investigate the effect of community participation in strengthening the relationship between disaster risk information dissemination and disaster preparedness. We chose three flood-prone communities (Old Fadama, Nima and Kotobabi) in Accra, Ghana’s capital city. We developed a model to test whether communities prepared better for flood disasters when they have been involved in communicating information. The study was undertaken a few months after the June 2015 disaster.</p>
<p>Our study showed that information that is accessible, comprehensive, and tailored to the needs of flood-prone populations strongly influences intentions to prepare. But this is only when city authorities make it possible for the public to get clarity and support to act on the information. </p>
<p>This insight shows how disaster management professionals and policy makers can integrate the cultural, social and value systems of a community into the communication process. Risk should be clearly communicated in languages that are understood locally and information must be channeled through traditional and community institutions. </p>
<h2>Flooding in Accra</h2>
<p>When people <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2413-8851/1/2/13">move to Accra</a>, they usually start by living in an informal settlement. Most of these areas are <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0042098016686526">flood-prone</a> because houses are built on flood plains with non-durable materials. </p>
<p>The government carries out educational campaigns on radio, TV and other media through the National Disaster Management Organisation, Ghana Meteorological Agency and National Commission for Civic Education. These campaigns talk about the type of hazard, areas to be affected, potential damage and in some cases preventive measures. But they don’t involve the active participation of the public. </p>
<p>There’s a need to revisit this one-way information flow, and instead encourage dialogue between experts and the public. This could happen when public authorities build a good relationship with communities. A sustained relationship builds trust. This could in turn give communities the confidence to share experiences of their response to floods.</p>
<p>Our study results showed that providing flood information to the public instigates discussions among community members but has little impact on preventive action. It’s more persuasive when the public is actively engaged in discussions with experts on flood risk preparedness. This should be on transparent and open platforms where experts readily address people’s doubts and uncertainties. </p>
<p>The study revealed that regular engagement between experts and the public is an opportunity to clarify messages, seek additional information and build trust. This can influence positive behavioural changes in terms of flood preparedness. </p>
<h2>Participatory disaster risk communication</h2>
<p>The risk of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_SPM_version_report_LR.pdf">climate-related disasters worldwide</a> is growing, especially in developing regions. To build local resilience, disaster management experts and policymakers must make community participation the core element of risk communication to the public.</p>
<p>Our study showed that the level of community participation matters when it comes to disaster preparedness. When people get information in an engaging and interactive manner, their behaviour changes in positive ways. As one respondent quipped: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Give me more information but also seek my views and experiences; then I will act. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The public shouldn’t just receive information but take an active part in what is communicated and how, so that it is useful in their local circumstances.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136888/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seth Asare Okyere is part of the Osaka University - Univerity College London (UCL) international joint research project on Freetown, funded by the Osaka University Global Knowledge Partnership (GKP) Program</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kim Maund, Matthew Abunyewah, and Thayaparan Gajendran do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Communities prepare better for flood disasters when they have been actively involved in communicating information.Matthew Abunyewah, Sessional lecturer, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleKim Maund, Discipline Head – Construction Management, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleSeth Asare Okyere, Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka UniversityThayaparan Gajendran, Associate Professor, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1359202020-04-30T12:11:47Z2020-04-30T12:11:47ZCan your community handle a natural disaster and coronavirus at the same time?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331140/original/file-20200428-110765-4p1gwe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C0%2C2592%2C1572&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When deadly tornadoes struck the Southeast in April, residents in Prentiss, Mississippi, struggled to keep up coronavirus precautions while salvaging what they could from their damaged properties.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://apimages.com">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The tornadoes that swept across the Southeast this spring were a warning to communities nationwide: Disasters can happen at any time, and the coronavirus pandemic is making them more difficult to manage and potentially more dangerous.</p>
<p>The next six months could be especially challenging. Forecasts show <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-spring-outlook-forecasts-another-year-of-widespread-river-flooding">widespread flooding is likely again this spring</a> from the northern Plains through the Gulf of Mexico. The western U.S. expects significant droughts this summer, <a href="https://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf">a recipe for wildfires</a>. The U.S. is also facing a high-risk <a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2020/04/2020-04.pdf">Atlantic hurricane season</a>. </p>
<p>Each type of disaster could leave thousands of people homeless and many in need of rescue and emergency care. </p>
<p>Dealing with response and recovery from a disaster in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic raises new and unsettling questions. Who is available to respond? What medical assistance can be provided if hospitals are treating COVID-19 patients and there is already a shortage of supplies? Where do we shelter and house evacuees, given the need to keep large numbers of evacuees socially distant from one another? Moreover, the time frame for dealing with this dual challenge may not be measured in days or even weeks, but rather months and possibly years.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://engineering.vanderbilt.edu/bio/mark-abkowitz">civil engineer specializing in risk management</a>, I work with governments and businesses to assess enterprise risks, including extreme weather. There are no silver bullets to solving these dilemmas, but there are simple concepts and questions that planners should be addressing right now.</p>
<h2>Planning is crucial</h2>
<p>With the coronavirus pandemic adding a new layer of challenges and risks, community leaders should be planning in a structured way for how they will deal with worst-case scenarios.</p>
<p>That means asking: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What are the consequences? And what resources do we need to mitigate the risk? </p>
<p>Before this year, few communities seriously considered the need to deal with a pandemic on top of a natural disaster. Their playbooks for responding to a tornado or a hurricane likely didn’t include the need to consider social distancing in emergency shelters or how to get help from other states when a widespread health crisis is underway.</p>
<p>Officials should be asking the key questions again, casting the net wide enough to consider any plausible scenario. Importantly, they should be addressing where personnel, equipment, facilities and supplies can be found and how those resources should be allocated. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331138/original/file-20200428-110734-1kuc1pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Schools are often used as emergency shelters during disasters, like this one was in Florida ahead of Hurricane Michael in 2018. They aren’t designed for social distancing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With the likelihood that resources normally available from federal agencies and mutual aid agreements won’t be accessible this year, some local communities have started banding together to fill the void. </p>
<p>In New Orleans, Evacuteer, a nonprofit normally focused on helping residents evacuate during a hurricane, has <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/04/what-happens-when-natural-disasters-strike-during-coronavirus-pandemic/">shifted its operations</a> to stockpiling food and supplies, recognizing that the pandemic response has depleted many of these resources. </p>
<p>The Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative, a coalition of mayors and leaders, is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/04/11/829193312/hope-isn-t-a-strategy-how-to-prepare-for-a-natural-disaster-during-covid-19">procuring personal protective equipment</a> for distribution to wherever severe flooding may occur. </p>
<p>Vacant hotel rooms and college dormitories are becoming important sheltering options. When tornadoes hit the Southeast in April, <a href="https://www.redcross.org/about-us/news-and-events/news/2020/red-cross-responds-to-tornadoes-in-south-as-storms-move-north.html">the Red Cross turned to a revised playbook</a> and responded with social distancing in mind. Instead of opening shelters, where the coronavirus could easily spread, it worked with hotels to put hundreds of storm victims into rooms. Its volunteers, normally on the scene after disasters, jumped into emergency response coordination work from home. </p>
<h2>The logistics challenge and federal leadership</h2>
<p>Without careful, coordinated planning, desperately needed resources can be sent to the wrong locations, leaving the areas most in need of assistance without lifesaving capabilities. </p>
<p>The shortages of testing, face masks and ventilators in areas hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic show how logistical failures can threaten the quality of health care and the susceptibility of hospital workers to harm.</p>
<p>Ideally, disaster logistics management should be a federal role. The federal government has greater access to supplies and the authority to marshal resources. The most effective approach is centralized control of the supply chain and a unified command structure, much in <a href="https://www.dla.mil/AtaGlance/">the way the Defense Logistics Agency</a> supports military operations. It requires total awareness of where to get supplies and where they are needed, and the ability to alter traditional supply chains when necessary. </p>
<p>Many <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jopart/mun033">case studies</a> illustrate the success of this approach, and the risks of not using it. During the 2001 terrorist attack on the Pentagon, the Arlington County Fire Department quickly <a href="https://theconversation.com/command-under-attack-what-weve-learned-since-9-11-about-managing-crises-64517">established a unified command</a> with other agencies. The emergency crews on the scene knew who was in charge and could coordinate effectively. Conversely, the disorganized response to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 left tens of thousands of people without basic supplies. </p>
<h2>Changing how businesses operate</h2>
<p>Inventory management is perhaps the most difficult challenge. In our global economy, companies have been overwhelmingly focused on cutting costs to remain competitive. </p>
<p>Businesses respond by keeping inventory as low as possible, relying on the supply chain to make just-in-time deliveries to meet production and service needs. There is little to no adaptive capacity in the system – the excess resources they could draw upon when a disaster strikes. </p>
<p>Creating this adaptive capacity will require a sea change in how businesses operate, with the strategy of cutting costs to the max replaced with a more reasoned approach of being cost-conscious while maintaining a sufficient inventory to meet societal needs.</p>
<p>Now is the time to recognize how to become resilient when confronting multiple disasters simultaneously. There is a famous oil filter commercial in which an auto mechanic, discussing the cost of replacing an oil filter as opposed to the cost of engine repair by deferring that decision, declares: <a href="http://www.resolvcrm.com/pay-me-now-or-pay-me-later">“You can pay me now….or you can pay me later</a>.” Later is no longer an option.</p>
<p>[<em>You need to understand the coronavirus pandemic, and we can help.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-help">Read The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/135920/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Abkowitz receives funding from the U.S. Department of Transportation and the Tennessee Department of Transportation.</span></em></p>If the forecasts are right, the US could be facing more natural disasters this year – on top of the coronavirus pandemic. Local governments aren’t prepared.Mark Abkowitz, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Director of the Vanderbilt Center for Environmental Management Studies, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1315602020-04-27T01:47:06Z2020-04-27T01:47:06ZDrought, fire and flood: how outer urban areas can manage the emergency while reducing future risks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323512/original/file-20200327-146705-lqf7o2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=920%2C597%2C2074%2C1396&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">paintings/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>First the drought, then bushfires and then flash floods: a chain of extreme events hit Australia hard in recent months. The coronavirus pandemic has only temporarily shifted our attention towards a new emergency, adding yet another risk. </p>
<p>We knew from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/">IPCC</a>) that the risk of extreme events was rising. What we perhaps didn’t realise was the high probability of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/10/floods-fire-and-drought-australia-a-country-in-the-grip-of-extreme-weather-bingo">different extreme events hitting one after the other</a> in the same regions. Especially in the fringes of Australian cities, residents are facing new levels of environmental risk, especially from <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146284/extreme-rain-douses-fires-causes-floods-in-australia">bushfires and floods</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/some-say-weve-seen-bushfires-worse-than-this-before-but-theyre-ignoring-a-few-key-facts-129391">Some say we've seen bushfires worse than this before. But they're ignoring a few key facts</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But this cycle of devastation is not inevitable if we understand the connections between events and do something about them. </p>
<p>Measures to slow climate change are in the hands of policymakers. But, at the adaptation level, we can still do many things to reduce the impacts of extreme events on our cities. </p>
<p>We can start by increasing our capacity to see these phenomena as one problem to be tackled locally, rather than distinct problems to be addressed centrally. Solutions should be holistic, community-centred and focused on people’s practices and shared responsibilities.</p>
<h2>Respond to emergency</h2>
<p>We can draw lessons from humanitarian responses to large disasters, including both national and international cases. A recent <a href="https://goodpracticereview.org/12/">review of disaster responses</a> in urban areas found several factors are critical for more successful recovery. </p>
<p>One is to prioritise the needs of people themselves. This requires genuine, collaborative engagement. People who have been through a bushfire or flood are not “helpless victims”. They are survivors who need to be supported and listened to, not dictated to, in terms of what they may or may not need. </p>
<p>Another lesson is to link recovery efforts, rather than have individual agencies provide services separately. For instance, an organisation focusing on housing recovery needs to work closely with organisations that are providing water or sanitation. A coordinated approach is more efficient, less wearying on those needing help, and better reflects the interconnected reality of everyday life. </p>
<p>In the aid world this is known as an “area-based” approach. It prioritises efforts that are driven by people demand rather than by the supply available. </p>
<p>A third lesson is give people money, not goods. Money allows people to decide what they really need, rather than rely on the assumptions of others. </p>
<p>As the bushfires have shown, donations of secondhand goods and clothes often turn into piles of unwanted goods. Disposal then becomes a problem in its own right. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-donate-to-australian-bushfire-relief-give-money-watch-for-scams-and-think-long-term-129445">How to donate to Australian bushfire relief: give money, watch for scams and think long term</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Combining local knowledge and engagement</h2>
<p>Planning approaches in outer urban areas should be realigned with our current understanding of bushfire and flood risk. This situation is challenging planners to engage with residents in new ways to ensure local needs are met, especially in relation to disaster resilience. </p>
<p>In areas of high bushfire risk, planning needs to connect equally with the full range of locals. Landscape and biodiversity experts, including <a href="https://blog.csiro.au/cultural-burning-australia/">Indigenous land managers</a>, and emergency managers should work in association with planning processes that welcome input from residents. This approach is highly likely to reduce risks.</p>
<p>Planners have a vital job to create platforms that enable the <a href="https://www.dora.lib4ri.ch/wsl/islandora/object/wsl:16373">interplay of ideas, local values and traditional knowledge</a>. Authentic engagement can increase residents’ awareness of environmental hazards. It can also pave the way for specific actions by authorities to reduce risks, such as those undertaken by Country Fire Service <a href="https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/prepare_for_a_fire/community_programs.jsp">community engagement units</a> in South Australia. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rebuilding-from-the-ashes-of-disaster-this-is-what-australia-can-learn-from-india-130385">Rebuilding from the ashes of disaster: this is what Australia can learn from India</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Managing water to build bushfire resilience</h2>
<p>Regenerating ecosystems by responding to flood risk can be crucial to increase urban and peri-urban resilience while reducing future drought and bushfire impacts. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13574809.2018.1511972">Research on flood management</a> suggests rainwater must be always seen as a resource, even in the case of extreme events. Sustainable water management through harvesting, retention and reuse can have long-term positive effects in regenerating micro-climates. It is at the base of any action aimed at comprehensively increasing resilience. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water-105844">Design for flooding: how cities can make room for water</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>In this sense, approaches based on decentralised systems are more effective at countering the risks of drought, fire and flood locally. They consist of small-scale <a href="https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/29988/Compendium_NBS.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">nature-based solutions</a> able to absorb and retain water to reduce flooding. Distributed off-grid systems support water harvesting in rainy seasons and prevent fires during drought by maintaining soil moisture. </p>
<p>Decentralisation also creates opportunities for innovation in the management of urban ecosystems, with responsibility shared among many. Mobile technologies can help communities play an active role in minimising flood impacts at the small scale. Information platforms can also help raise awareness of the links between risks and actions and lead to practical solutions that are within everybody’s reach.</p>
<h2>Tailor responses to people and ecosystems</h2>
<p>Disrupted ecosystems can make the local impacts of drought, fire and flood worse, but can also play a role in global failures, such as the recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-11/jane-goodall-says-disregard-for-nature-has-brought-coronavirus/12142246">pandemic</a>. It is urgent to define and implement mechanisms to reverse this trend. </p>
<p>Lessons from disaster responses point towards the need to tailor solutions to community needs and local environmental conditions. A few key strategies are emerging:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>foster networks and coordinated approaches that operate across silos</p></li>
<li><p>support local and traditional landscape knowledge </p></li>
<li><p>use information platforms to help people work together to manage risks</p></li>
<li><p>manage water locally with the support of populations to prevent drought and bushfire.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Recent environmental crises are showing us the way to finally change direction. Safe cities and landscapes can be achieved only by regenerating urban ecosystems while responding to increasing environmental risks through integrated, people-centred actions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131560/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The disasters have come one after another. While they may not be entirely preventable, we can take many practical steps tailored to local needs and conditions to reduce the impacts on our cities.Elisa Palazzo, Urbanist and landscape planner - Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Built Environment, UNSW SydneyAnnette Bardsley, Researcher, Department of Geography, Environment and Population, University of AdelaideDavid Sanderson, Professor and Inaugural Judith Neilson Chair in Architecture, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1273052019-11-26T17:12:53Z2019-11-26T17:12:53ZSigns of hope for community after Toronto high-rise fire displaces hundreds<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303250/original/file-20191123-74562-28emrz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1081%2C810&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The 235 Gosford Apartments, one week after the tragic Nov. 15 2019 fire.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jack Rozdilsky</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the evening of Nov. 15, 2019, the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/apartment-fire-1.5361965">Toronto Fire Service responded to a five-alarm fire</a> at a 15-storey apartment building located in the northwest part of the city at 235 Gosford Boulevard.</p>
<p>The fire killed one resident, injured six and displaced hundreds. While it was initially reported that up to 700 people were left homeless, Toronto Emergency Management Authorities <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/11/16/north-york-residents-face-uncertain-future-after-highrise-blaze-leaves-one-dead-hundreds-displaced.html">reported that approximately 354 people have been displaced</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Ob3dms4F40?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">CityNews coverage of the five-alarm fire on Nov. 15, 2019.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Urban fires</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, Toronto is again coping with the complex aftermath of a common urban disaster — fires occurring in large tower block apartment buildings. In large cities, fires are an everyday occurrence. In 2018, the Toronto Fire Service <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/8e80-A1902231_TFSAnnualReport2018_WEB.pdf">responded to 181,928 fires</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nsc.org/home-safety/safety-topics/emergency-preparedness/fire">November and December are considered peak months</a> for fire-related deaths. This is due to holiday-related cooking accidents and an increased need for indoor heating with colder weather. </p>
<p>A majority of fire emergencies are disastrous for the individuals and households involved. These emergencies can be aptly handled by standing first responders and existing social service programs like the <a href="https://www.whathappensnow.com/how-the-red-cross-works/">Canadian Red Cross’s programs to assist after a fire</a>. But on occasion, these high-rise fires expand from everyday emergencies into full-blown disasters. The disaster-like characteristics of such fires multiply when they occur at densely populated high-rise tower blocks and in areas of the city that <a href="https://www.unitedwaygt.org/document.doc?id=61">are already socially and economically distressed</a>.</p>
<h2>The Black Creek neighbourhood</h2>
<p>The Gosford fire occurred in Toronto’s Black Creek neighbourhood, an already distressed area. Census data indicates the neighbourhood has <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/ext/sdfa/Neighbourhood%20Profiles/pdf/2016/pdf1/cpa24.pdf">a population of 21,737</a>: 55 per cent of residents live in apartment buildings of five storeys or greater (compared to 44 per cent for Toronto). Sixty-seven per cent are renters (compared to 47 per cent for the city). Visible minorities make up 81 per cent of the neighbourhood (compared to 52 per cent for the city), and the <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75f0002m/75f0002m2019009-eng.htm">poverty rate is 34 per cent</a> compared to the rest of the city at 22 per cent.</p>
<p>In a 2014 report, the neighbourhood was considered <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/03/13/black_creek_neighbourhood_deemed_torontos_least_livable.html">Toronto’s least liveable</a>. Black Creek received <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2014/cd/bgrd/backgroundfile-67351.pdf">Toronto’s lowest score</a> on a Neighbourhood Equity Score index — 21.38 on a scale of zero to 100. Despite the challenges faced, residents suggest that the neighbourhood’s diversity is its strength and it <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/cbcdocspov/m_blog/despite-what-you-have-heard-torontos-jane-and-finch-community-is-joyful-res">does not deserve the negative reputation it sometimes receives</a>.</p>
<h2>Sudden displacement</h2>
<p>The Gosford fire has displaced two to three per cent of the Black Creek neighbourhood on a sudden-onset and unexpected basis. It is not known when the displaced residents will be able to return to their homes in the high-rise building. Many affected families have been <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/to-be-homeless-it-s-a-difficult-feeling-residents-displaced-by-high-rise-fire-speak-out-1.4698139">thrust into precarious lodging and financial situations</a>.</p>
<p>The disaster response has ranged from the deployment of city buses for immediate respite sheltering to the establishment of reception centre and mass shelter operation at York University. The <a href="http://wx.toronto.ca/inter/it/newsrel.nsf/11476e3d3711f56e85256616006b891f/f356084892836375852584b5006be1ab?OpenDocument">City of Toronto is responsible for the shelter</a>, the Canadian Red Cross provides for day-to-day operation of the shelter and York University has <a href="https://yfile.news.yorku.ca/2019/11/17/message-to-the-university-community-regarding-the-tragic-fire-at-235-gosford-blvd/">provided the space for mass sheltering</a>. A week after the fire, approximately 45 people are living at the re-purposed athletic centre, and the length of their stay may be weeks. </p>
<p>The scope of this disaster has expanded to the point where it is expected that long-term provision of emergency social services will be needed. An <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6204703/residents-appeal-for-donations-toronto-fire/">appeal for more community help</a> has been issued by residents. </p>
<p>At worst, the Gosford fire will deal a blow to individuals and the community that cannot be overcome. A neighborhood becomes increasingly distressed, residents with stable livelihoods are thrown into long-term disarray and precarious residents fall through the cracks. </p>
<p>Open questions ranging from the short-term decisions of when and how to phase out the mass sheltering operation to long-term questions related to best meeting the transitional housing needs of those persons displaced (in an already tight and expensive rental housing market) can all become messy. </p>
<p>Problems include dozens of traumatized persons needing to regain a sense of safety, the real possibility that the aid provided may fall short and the fact that some people may not have renter’s insurance. In the end, who pays for it all? Then the lawsuits begin.</p>
<h2>Ongoing displacement</h2>
<p>In August 2018, another Toronto <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/10/04/fire-marshals-report-says-650-parliament-fire-caused-65-million-in-damage.html">high-rise apartment fire at 650 Parliament Street</a> displaced 1,500 persons. More than a year later, persons displaced from that fire remain out of their homes with their lives on hold. <a href="https://www.kristynwongtam.ca/650parliamentupdates">Normalcy has not yet returned</a> to displaced residents and challenges such as <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/5791483/650-parliament-one-year-anniversary/">instability with children, mobility and health problems exist</a>.</p>
<p>On the other hand, community stakeholders may come together to help their neighbours through this emergency. Disasters can provide opportunities for <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/hurricane-katrinas-lesson-in-civics/402961/">people to come together and help each other</a>. </p>
<p>The fire dealt a severe blow to the Black Creek neighbourhood, but it is not something that is unprecedented for large cities. In the much more devastating <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/combustible-cladding-on-london-s-grenfell-tower-key-to-deadly-fire-inquiry-1.5340634">2017 high-rise fire at London’s Grenfell Tower that killed 72 residents</a>, <a href="http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=8996605&fileOId=8996606">examples of community resiliency emerged</a>. </p>
<p>There are numerous signs of hope in Toronto. For the first time in its history, York University made shelter space available. The Toronto District School Board has launched a <a href="https://www.tdsb.on.ca/About-Us/TDSB-Charity-Page">relief fund for families affected by the Gosford fire</a>. And while the disaster of the Gosford fire presents many challenges, it is hoped that resiliency will prevail over distress and desolation.</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=thanksforreading">Thanks for reading! We can send you The Conversation’s stories every day in an informative email. Sign up today.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127305/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack L. Rozdilsky works for York University. He has previously received funding from the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction.</span></em></p>A fire in Toronto’s Black Creek neighbourhood displaced hundreds of people. One person died of smoke inhalation. The after-disaster response reveals some of the challenges faced by urban communities.Jack L. Rozdilsky, Associate Professor of Disaster and Emergency Management, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1232342019-11-21T16:02:23Z2019-11-21T16:02:23ZSurviving nuclear disasters depends on stronger communications networks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301840/original/file-20191114-26237-1dsfplo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C0%2C5097%2C3380&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Communications systems after a disaster can be affected by behaviour such as the number of times a person tries to access emergency systems.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Building resilience is a key topic in many research fields. The increase of natural and human-made disasters and their catastrophic consequences have revealed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.006">not all hazards can be prevented</a>. </p>
<p>We do not need to look far back. In September 2019, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49553770">Hurricane Dorian caused major damage in the Bahamas</a>. Hundreds of forest fires <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-wildfires-map-2019-updates-on-fire-locations-evacuation-alerts-orders">have devastated British Columbia</a> and, although the summer has not started yet in Australia, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/07/bushfires-rage-across-queensland-and-nsw-destroying-at-least-15-homes">many fires are affecting the country</a>. </p>
<p>Other major incidents in recent history include <a href="https://www.cnn.com/specials/hurricane-irma">Hurricane Irma in 2017</a>, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2012.03.032">2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12036">2010 Darfield earthquake in New Zealand</a>. Likewise, human-caused disasters have also occurred, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nima.2013.04.017">Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011</a>.</p>
<h2>Building resiliency</h2>
<p>Different levels of governments are assigning resources to improve the resiliency — the ability to withstand damage and recover after a catastrophic event or disaster — of their legislated areas. In Canada, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/pan-canadian-framework/adaptation-climate-resilience.html">the focus is on climate resilience and is based on the following actions</a>:</p>
<p>(1) Translating scientific information and traditional knowledge into action;</p>
<p>(2) Building resilient infrastructure;</p>
<p>(3) Protecting and improving human health and well-being;</p>
<p>(4) Supporting vulnerable regions;</p>
<p>(5) Reducing the hazards related to climate change and risk of disaster.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-researchers-plant-seeds-of-hope-for-health-and-climate-106217">Indigenous researchers plant seeds of hope for health and climate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The U.S. Department of Homeland Security works with “<a href="https://www.dhs.gov/topic/resilience">all levels of government, the private and nonprofit sectors, and individual citizens</a>” to develop resilience. Meanwhile, the European Commission has <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/initiatives/ares-2017-1137007_en">identified resilience among its top strategic priorities</a>.</p>
<h2>Top-down planning</h2>
<p>After the nuclear accident at Fukushima, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) suggested improvements, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2012.11.008">strengthening management systems, response arrangements, transparency and effectiveness of communications mechanisms</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-nuclear tent in Tokyo, Japan. Nuclear issues in Fukushima have still not been resolved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although emergency plans are carefully designed, traditional approaches are based on top-down perspectives that aim for the compliance of a set of laws, regulations and directives. These approaches are similar to a military command chain, with a small margin for adaptation in response to unforeseen circumstances not identified in the plan. </p>
<p>The analysis of previous disasters reveals problems with emergency plans and crisis management. The importance of communication mechanisms is shown in the analysis of previous disasters — for example, the lack of functional communication systems <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art3/">complicates the management of emergency responses</a>.</p>
<h2>Communication flaws</h2>
<p>Although the importance of improving the resilience of communications networks is clear, there is a lack of testing and improving these networks in complex organizations. This becomes more challenging if we include the social aspects of communications — the behaviour of individuals involved in such communications.</p>
<p>Our research focuses on filling this gap. We recently investigated and proposed a new software platform and development process that focuses on the resilience of communications between individuals in complex organizations. Our case study was a proposed nuclear emergency plan from a power plant in Spain.</p>
<p>The communications aspect of an emergency plan can be modelled using an information diffusion process, meaning that the object of interest (like a virus, idea or particle) spreads out in a given environment (a hospital, a research group, a magnetic medium, for example) starting from an area with a high concentration to areas of lower concentration. </p>
<p>We designed a new method to systematically simulate such diffusion processes in distinct phases: model development, transformation of the model into a computer software and experimentation through computer simulation. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3200921.3200922">Our proposed method</a> combined three models: network theory, to define the possible connections between individuals; agent-based modeling to define the behaviour of individuals; and discrete event system specifications to see how communications in the emergency plan would work in different scenarios. </p>
<p>This approach allows us to check if the model matches the real system before spending time and money on implementation. For example, we could change which individuals communicated with each other, which networks were available and which actions individuals took. We studied different what-if scenarios, changing aspects like the kinds of devices used to communicate, or how the communication networks were set up.</p>
<p>We identified that the behaviour of the individuals affects the resilience of the whole network: the number of re-dial attempts by an individual may be critical to the whole information transmission process because it may prevent that person from communicating relevant information to other teams in a timely manner. </p>
<p>Similarly, we found scenarios where a person not forwarding the emergency information exactly as expected could jeopardize the entire process.</p>
<p>The following image shows the effect of a collapse in a telephone network. This type of failure while managing an emergency can have a very negative impact on the performance of the first responders, because they may miss relevant information.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Communication network after a collapse in the phone communication channel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The results of our research have potential for policy-makers. The models we developed can be used to simulate the effects of different policies. This is critical before implementing them in the real world because it will save time, costs and undesired outcomes. </p>
<p>The lessons from our case study can also be applied in other fields, such as controlling the spread of disease or the dissemination of fake news on social media.</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel Wainer receives funding from NSERC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cristina Ruiz Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Communications networks are a crucial part of any disaster planning. Resilient communications systems determine how effective emergency responses can be.Gabriel Wainer, Professor, Systems and Computer Engineering, Carleton UniversityCristina Ruiz Martin, Postdoctoral fellow, Systems and Computer Engineering, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1271262019-11-19T19:30:52Z2019-11-19T19:30:52ZPutting homes in high-risk areas is asking too much of firefighters<p>The impacts of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/spring-2019-bushfires-78555">bushfires</a> that are overwhelming emergency services in New South Wales and Queensland suggest houses are being built in areas where the risks are high. We rely heavily on emergency services to protect people and property, but strategic land-use planning can improve resilience and so help reduce the risk in the first place. This would mean giving more weight to considering bushfire hazards at the earliest stages of planning housing supply.</p>
<p>The outstanding dedication of emergency agencies such as the NSW Rural Fire Service and Queensland Fire and Emergency Service is obvious in their efforts to save lives and properties despite the increasing intensity of fires. However, strategic land-use planning could help reduce the risks by being more responsive to such changes in hazards. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-when-the-firies-call-him-out-on-climate-change-scott-morrison-should-listen-127049">Grattan on Friday: When the firies call him out on climate change, Scott Morrison should listen</a>
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<p>Comprehensive management of bushfire risk should include a strategic planning focus on reducing the pressures on emergency services and communities. We may have to rethink land-use planning approaches that <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/9341">prove inadequate</a> to deal with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-are-natural-disasters-on-the-rise-39232">increasing intensity and unpredictability of natural hazards</a>.</p>
<p>Strategic planning policies and practices provide the opportunity to be more attentive to changes in bushfire hazards in particular. Planning decisions that fail to do this may leave communities exposed and heavily reliant on emergency services during a disaster.</p>
<h2>Planning to build resilience</h2>
<p>The Australian government has <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/1958/manual-7-planning-safer-communities.pdf">identified land-use planning as a key step</a> in managing natural hazards. In 2011, the <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-strategy-disaster-resilience.pdf">Council of Australian Governments</a> declared:</p>
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<p>Locating new or expanding existing settlements and infrastructure in areas exposed to unreasonable risk is irresponsible.</p>
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<p>The increasing intensity of hazards associated with <a href="https://outlook.ndcs.undp.org/">climate change</a> makes strategic planning even more relevant. Land-use planners could help greatly with building <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221242091630070X">resilience</a> by placing natural hazards at the top of their assessment criteria.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze-126750">Drought and climate change were the kindling, and now the east coast is ablaze</a>
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<p>Coordinating land-use planning reforms is itself a challenge. Planning in Australia involves many policies, institutions, professions and decision-makers. Policies and processes <a href="https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/9341">differ</a> depending on the state or territory. </p>
<p>Furthermore, planners must reconcile the demand for residential land from <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/3222.0Media%20Release12017%20(base)%20-%202066">population growth</a> and the need to protect the environment. Deciding where to locate housing is often fraught with complexity, so the process needs expert early input from relevant <a href="https://gar.unisdr.org/sites/default/files/reports/2019-05/full_gar_report.pdf">scientific communities</a> and <a href="https://www.emergency.nsw.gov.au/Pages/for-the-community/community-service-workers/how-emergencies-are-managed-in-NSW/how-emergencies-are-managed-in-nsw.aspx">emergency services</a>. </p>
<h2>Anticipate risk to reduce it</h2>
<p>Land-use planning offers an opportunity in the earliest phase of development to manage the combined pressures of population growth, urban expansion, increasing density and risks of natural hazards.</p>
<p>When rezoning land for residential development, many issues have to be considered. These include environmental sustainability, demand for housing and the location of existing buildings and infrastructure, as well as natural hazards. It’s a <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/1958/manual-7-planning-safer-communities.pdf">complex and intricate process</a>, but clearly the strategic planning stage is the first opportunity to minimise exposure to bushfire risk. </p>
<p>Existing policy and processes may defer the detailed review of bushfire risk and other natural hazards to development stages after land has been rezoned. There’s a case for policy to increase the importance attached to bushfire hazards at this early stage. </p>
<p>Ultimately, strategic planners aim to locate settlements away from risk of natural hazards. However, bushfires continue to have disastrous impacts on people and properties. Ongoing demand for housing may add pressure to build in areas exposed to risk.</p>
<p>Settlements are pushing into undeveloped areas that are more likely to be exposed to bushfire risk. The role of strategic land-use planning then becomes even more critical. The devastation we have seen this month shows why this risk must be given the highest priority in land-use planning, particularly when zoning land as residential. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-hazard-risk-is-it-just-going-to-get-worse-or-can-we-do-something-about-it-84286">Natural hazard risk: is it just going to get worse or can we do something about it?</a>
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<h2>Key steps to reform planning</h2>
<p>The increasing intensity of bushfires points to a need to rethink planning processes and mitigation strategies to reduce exposure to such hazards before they arise. This will help ease the burden on emergency services of managing a disaster when it happens. We can’t ignore the opportunities to minimise the risks at the early stages of land-use planning. Key steps include:</p>
<ul>
<li>a policy review to mandate natural hazards, including bushfire risk, as one of the highest priorities in policy, with an objective framework for making land-use decisions</li>
<li>mandatory consultation with relevant science disciplines to model natural hazard risks when land is considered for rezoning</li>
<li>involve emergency services in the strategic planning phase to help minimise future risk.</li>
</ul><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127126/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Maund receives a tuition fee scholarship under the Australian government's Research Training Program (RTP) for his PhD research. He is a consulting environmental scientist and planner in private practice and formerly for the NSW government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kim Maund does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thayaparan Gajendran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Land-use planning should give more weight to the increasing risks of natural hazards like bushfires as the first step in reducing the impacts.Mark Maund, PhD Candidate, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleKim Maund, Discipline Head - Construction Management, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleThayaparan Gajendran, Associate Professor, School of Architecture and Built Environment, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1268302019-11-14T03:47:51Z2019-11-14T03:47:51ZVirtual tools, real fires: how holograms and other tech could help outsmart bushfires<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301380/original/file-20191112-178525-wfsds6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In many countries including America, computer models are being used to predict how a fire will burn.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia continues to experience <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-were-the-kindling-and-now-the-east-coast-is-ablaze-126750">unprecedented destruction from bushfires</a>. Now is the time to harness our technological tools, and find innovative ways to help alleviate the problem, and also prevent future disaster. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2007_andrews_p001.pdf">Predictive mapping</a> has been a vital tool in an ongoing effort to identify at-risk forest areas and proactively manage the risks of fires. It works by analysing images to see what human eyes don’t always see. </p>
<p>Now, progress in technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), drones, and Internet of Things sensors have opened new ways for us to better prevent and effectively respond to bushfires. For this, the key is to have plenty of data relevant to that location.</p>
<h2>Using tech to gather and distribute data</h2>
<p>Crucial data needed for bushfire prevention planning can come from a range of sources, including Internet of Things (IoT) sensors collecting weather data, archived data from the past, modelling tools, satellite images, and even social media.</p>
<p>These technologies can converge to gather a diverse range of data, helping us make predictions about the likelihood of an event occurring in a specific location with more speed and accuracy than ever before. Such predictions provide timely and targeted information that can greatly aid emergency services in doing their job, especially as they often have stretched resources on the ground.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-does-poor-air-quality-from-bushfire-smoke-affect-our-health-126835">How does poor air quality from bushfire smoke affect our health?</a>
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<p>Our goal now should be to integrate our use of these emerging technologies into existing systems of State Emergency Service departments, which can relay more strategically targeted information to local authorities who need it. This can be built into their existing systems.</p>
<h2>The potential of mesh networks</h2>
<p>Next-generation “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYLU755T6_I">mesh networks</a>” are an emerging technology made possible by the convergence of 5G, artificial intelligence, billions of Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, and virtual and augmented reality. </p>
<p>Whereas older networks are based on a limited number of access points, with mesh networks every person with a 5G-enabled smart phone is a node capable of connecting with everyone else. When 5G mobile phone service is rolled out across Australia, we’ll be able to do this. </p>
<p>With this technology, people in a bushfire or other disaster-afflicted area can create a local mesh network using their smartphone. They could contribute by recording 360 degree videos, make narrative reports about unfolding events, take close-up photos etc, then distribute these to the mesh network. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-flames-encroach-those-at-risk-may-lose-phone-signal-when-they-need-it-most-126827">As flames encroach, those at risk may lose phone signal when they need it most</a>
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<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photogrammetry">Photogrammetric</a> artificial intelligence can produce reliable information about physical environments by processing captured imagery. It integrates these videos to create live holograms in real time. This form of virtual reality will put observers right there on the ground. This will help authorities away from the scene to verify reports and more effectively coordinate relief efforts.</p>
<p>It may also assure family and friends that their loved ones in afflicted areas are OK.</p>
<h2>Learning from others</h2>
<p>California’s <a href="https://www.oneconcern.com/">One Concern</a> is an example of a next-generation disaster management service that provides a model for what could be achieved in Australia. </p>
<p>It has partnered with various city governments, including San Francisco and Los Angeles, to create virtual models of particular regions’ physical environment, by assigning “digital fingerprints” to each significant feature of that environment. The service constantly monitors any thermal shifts and seismic movement across the sensor network. </p>
<p>Processing this data together with historical data allows One Concern to run simulations to help determine the best course of action while a disaster event is unfolding. It can also highlight the most effective prevention methods, and where the greatest vulnerabilities are for the specific region and threat. </p>
<p>Crowd-sourcing software <a href="https://www.ushahidi.com/blog/2018/11/05/how-the-ushahidi-platform-works-and-what-comes-next">Ushahidi</a> (meaning “evidence” in Swahili) is another example of a useful tool for disaster or conflict management.</p>
<p>This free, open-source software is used at more than 100,000 communities globally.</p>
<p>During the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%932008_Kenyan_crisis">2007–2008 Kenyan election crisis</a>, a local blogger put a callout online. The blogger was seeking someone with the technical skills needed to produce a combined image of where violence was happening, to then overlay it on a map.</p>
<p>With no shortage of volunteers, it wasn’t long before the platform was up and running. Soon the site was crowd-sourcing up to 40,000 first-hand, geotagged and time-stamped reports. It also drew from social media posts and news articles.</p>
<p>The system was able to send information back to individuals on the ground to help them avoid locations where violence is reported. All of this happened beyond the surveillance capabilities of the government, which means contributors remained safe from reprisal.</p>
<h2>Looking to the future</h2>
<p>Traditional bushfire prevention methods so far have included managing <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/nature/natural-disasters/wildfire1.htm">fuel loads</a> with low intensity burns to reduce flammable vegetation and leaf-litter before they reach levels that result in destructive high-intensity. </p>
<p>While this method works where it is employed, it’s time we used 21st century solutions to tackle the increasing threat of bushfires. In many parts of Australia, the question is <em>when</em> a disaster will occur, not <em>if</em> it will.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/firestorms-and-flaming-tornadoes-how-bushfires-create-their-own-ferocious-weather-systems-126832">Firestorms and flaming tornadoes: how bushfires create their own ferocious weather systems</a>
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<p>First responders facing an advancing fire need all the help they can get, and strategically gathered information from smart systems will give our firefighters a distinct advantage.</p>
<p>The technologies discussed above are some of the ways we can rise to the challenge. We need to build stronger, more capable ways of preventing disaster where possible, managing the disaster while it happens, and identifying ways of becoming more disaster-resilient.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126830/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Tuffley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The convergence of technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence and virtual reality may offer hope for the way we manage future bushfire disasters.David Tuffley, Senior Lecturer in Applied Ethics & CyberSecurity, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1207002019-07-31T22:57:24Z2019-07-31T22:57:24ZAging with pets isn’t just a sentimental concern, but a matter of health and wellness<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285903/original/file-20190726-43149-1vhqxzv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C0%2C995%2C666&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People's relationships with their pets impact wellness and health in perhaps surprising ways.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Is home somewhere that you feel comfortable? Is it filled with memories of beloved friends and family — some of whom may be furry animals? </p>
<p>Researchers analyzed data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging, a national study of adult development and aging which recruited more than 50,000 Canadians between the ages of 45 and 85. They found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0714980818000107">over one-third of older Canadians are choosing to age with pets</a> and that, for some people, living with pets can increase life satisfaction.</p>
<p>My research focuses on social justice and aging, with a special interest in the human-animal bond. I recently collaborated on <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/corporate/seniors/forum/core-community-supports.html">a report for the federal government on seniors, aging in place and community</a>.</p>
<p>When I researched community supports in Canada for this report, I discovered there is no government funding to help older adults care for pets. </p>
<p>This is unfortunate because <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-pets-are-family-the-benefits-extend-into-society-109179">the relationship between humans and non-human companions has become increasingly important to Canadians</a>. While people and their pets may seem like a frivolous concern, people’s relationships with their pets impact wellness and health in perhaps surprising ways. </p>
<p>Helping people in financial need to pay for their pets is fiscally responsible, since maintaining the human-animal bond could in the long term reduce health-care costs. </p>
<h2>Aging in place with pets</h2>
<p>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention defines aging in place as <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthyplaces/terminology.htm">“the ability to live in one’s own home and community safely, independently and comfortably, regardless of age, income or ability level.</a>” </p>
<p>Aging in place is associated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02763893.2017.1280582">decreased depression</a>, <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2308-3417/3/4/75/htm">maintaining personal identity</a>, staying connected with <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1549-0831.2012.00084.x">community</a>, <a href="https://doi-org.proxy.queensu.ca/10.1093/geront/gnr098">friends and family</a> as well as avoiding the <a href="https://uwaterloo.ca/canadian-index-wellbeing/sites/ca.canadian-index-wellbeing/files/uploads/files/seniors_and_housing-the_challenge_ahead.pdf">emotional and physical pain associated with leaving a familiar place</a>. </p>
<p>For many older adults pets are <a href="https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/jssw/vol40/iss4/5/">considered to be family members</a>. Interactions with pets are not only important in terms of companionship, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-005-5072-z">they are also associated with better health</a>. For example, a study of people in Germany and Australia found that people who continuously own a pet are healthiest, <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226996291_Pets_and_Human_Health_in_Germany_and_Australia_National_Longitudinal_Results">visiting the doctor less often than non-pet owners</a>. Researchers have linked the human-animal bond to <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/11/11/11110">reduced cardiovascular disease risk</a>, <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/63b5/42ffcdd804167d21b58ede9a3841bc01ee3f.pdf">lowered blood pressure</a> and <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/1435469">lower cholesterol</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285852/original/file-20190726-43118-dgqejr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285852/original/file-20190726-43118-dgqejr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285852/original/file-20190726-43118-dgqejr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285852/original/file-20190726-43118-dgqejr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285852/original/file-20190726-43118-dgqejr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285852/original/file-20190726-43118-dgqejr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285852/original/file-20190726-43118-dgqejr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">For many older adults, pets are considered to be family members.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>Research also suggests people with pets are also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0122085">less lonely, have stronger support networks and are often more involved in community activities</a>. </p>
<p>But many older adults <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/broadbent/pages/4904/attachments/original/1455216659/An_Analysis_of_the_Economic_Circumstances_of_Canadian_Seniors.pdf?1455216659">do not have adequate retirement income</a>, and in such cases caring for pets can become too expensive to manage. </p>
<p>Given the many quality-of-life and health-related benefits of pet ownership, developing community support programs dedicated to keeping pets and older adults together are expected to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29631643">result in savings to health-care systems and social programs</a>. </p>
<h2>Climate change dangers</h2>
<p>Another concern regarding aging in place with pets is the potential impact of climate change — and how this may impact health. </p>
<p>Since climate change is predicted to result in more <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/">heatwaves, hot summers, droughts and flooding</a> there is the need to develop community support initiatives <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2900329/">to prevent heat-related deaths among older adults</a>.
<a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/15/5/843">Older adults’ vulnerability to extreme heat is well documented</a>, and is <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2900329/">increased for those who have more than one illness</a> as well as for those who <a href="http://dx.doi.org.proxy.queensu.ca/10.17269/CJPH.107.5599">are socially isolated</a>. </p>
<p>Many older adults may opt to stay in a hot home with their pet, rather than going to a cooling centre without their companion animal, particularly if they foresee no options for the animal’s care. By providing <a href="http://dx.doi.org.proxy.queensu.ca/10.17269/CJPH.107.5599">access to air conditioners, which low-income older adults can’t afford on their own</a>, older adults’ heat-related suffering could be alleviated without concerns about abandoning their pet. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285765/original/file-20190725-136786-zhugjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/285765/original/file-20190725-136786-zhugjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285765/original/file-20190725-136786-zhugjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285765/original/file-20190725-136786-zhugjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285765/original/file-20190725-136786-zhugjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285765/original/file-20190725-136786-zhugjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/285765/original/file-20190725-136786-zhugjn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">People flee a fast-moving wildfire, some clutching pets as they abandoned vehicles and struck out on foot when the Camp Fire raged through Paradise, Calif., Nov. 8, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Noah Berger)</span></span>
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<p>Plans to help older adults faced with climate-related danger should also consider that some <a href="https://habricentral.org/resources/43012/download/Save_me_Save_my_dog.pdf">people have chosen not evacuate severe weather situations when they are unable to bring their pets</a>.
Compliance with evacuation orders might increase if government programs were implemented to provide vaccinations for pets and to evacuate older adults with their pets so that they can go to emergency shelters together.</p>
<p>In the United States there have been changes to <a href="http://www.academia.edu/5835041/Ready_or_Not_Evacuating_an_Animal_Shelter_during_a_Mock_Emergency">disaster planning and disaster preparation exercises to respond to the rescue and care of companion animals</a>. Ensuring pets are evacuated and reunited with their humans can be a positive influence on <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/4/2/214">mental health after disasters</a>. </p>
<p>Integrating new initiatives within existing community supports to help older adults <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29631643">care for the animals that share their lives</a> would be a win-win, promoting wellness and potentially reducing health expenditures over the longer term. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120700/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>L.F. Carver does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Governments must think about older people’s relationships with pets when they’re planning both aging-in-place strategies and disaster management.L.F. Carver, Adjunct assistant professor, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1137942019-03-19T12:40:41Z2019-03-19T12:40:41ZWhy Malawi is failing to protect people from floods and what needs to be done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/264437/original/file-20190318-28502-g84d1y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Torrential rains in Malawi have caused dozens of deaths</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Arjan van de Merwe/UNDP/Flickr</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Severe floods in Malawi have <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/southern-africa-cyclone-idai-snapshot-14-march-2019">affected</a> about a million people and claimed 56 lives. </p>
<p>This isn’t uncommon in the country. Between 1946 and 2013, floods <a href="http://repository.uneca.org/handle/10855/23299">accounted for</a> 48% of major disasters, and their frequency and severity is increasing. They have occurred in 16 out of the country’s 28 districts, in both rural and urban areas. The Lower Shire Valley in southern Malawi, bordering Mozambique, composed of Chikwawa and Nsanje Districts is the most flood prone and affected area.</p>
<p>Floods stifle development efforts at every level. They affect many sectors from agriculture to sanitation, environment and education. The combined effects of floods and droughts cause losses of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/environment-and-development-economics/article/economic-costs-of-extreme-weather-events-a-hydrometeorological-cge-analysis-for-malawi/627FB394C812C92E903916AD2E7B36B8">at least</a> 1.7% of Malawi’s GDP annually. And due to food shortages and higher domestic prices, the national poverty headcount rate increases by <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/environment-and-development-economics/article/economic-costs-of-extreme-weather-events-a-hydrometeorological-cge-analysis-for-malawi/627FB394C812C92E903916AD2E7B36B8">almost 1%</a> each year. </p>
<p>One of the major reasons for floods in Malawi is rainfall <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0195.1">characteristics</a>. Rainfall is variable, erratic and rainfall in the highlands <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0195.1">often causes</a> floods in the low-lying areas. Also, extensive deforestation increases runoff and the overall flood risk. </p>
<p>But to understand how floods become a “disaster” we need to understand why local communities are so vulnerable in the first place. Floods, similar to other hazards, are often portrayed as “natural disasters” when their impact actually has <a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/why-natural-disasters-arent-all-that-natural/">a large amount to do</a> with social and human vulnerability. </p>
<p>As Phil O'Keefe, Ken Westgate and Ben Wisner – prominent scholars who shaped current academic thinking on the topic – have argued, the impact of disasters like floods is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/260566a0">a consequence</a> of social and economic factors. For instance, high poverty levels mean people lack access to land and work and they are often driven to settle in zones that are more exposed to natural hazards. </p>
<p>What this suggests is that the most effective approach to managing the effects of floods is to deal with the underlying causes of vulnerability. This should include addressing particular issues that make certain community groups more vulnerable than others. Because the threat of floods can’t be eliminated, the best strategy is one that improves the overall development of local communities. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/521047/1/Sakic-Trogrlic%20et%20al.%202017_community%20flood%20Malawi.pdf">my research</a> I investigated community-based flood-risk strategies, which are widely used in Malawi. My findings showed that although strategies are mostly responsive and focus on relief, more are starting to look at how to mitigate and prepare for floods. </p>
<p>But a number of challenges remain. There’s not enough funding, community participation is limited, while the existing decentralised governance system isn’t effective so project planning, implementation and maintenance isn’t smooth. Projects are also unsustainable, rely heavily on aid and there’s a lack of ownership by the community which undermines the impact. </p>
<h2>Vulnerable communities</h2>
<p>Malawi is <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/09/24/world-economic-outlook-october-2018">the third poorest</a> country in the world. <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/country/malawi">About half</a> the population lives below the poverty line. Chikwawa and Nsanje, which have been particularly affected by the floods, are the poorest in the country. </p>
<p>Over <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479718312039">80% of Malawians</a> rely on agriculture. Most are smallholder farmers. With their livelihoods reliant on a single rain-fed season they are particularly vulnerable to floods. Recent research shows that smallholder farmers lose <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/environment-and-development-economics/article/economic-costs-of-extreme-weather-events-a-hydrometeorological-cge-analysis-for-malawi/627FB394C812C92E903916AD2E7B36B8">2.67%</a> of their agricultural produce to flooding each year.</p>
<p>High levels of poverty, a lack of access to land and a <a href="http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/malawi-population/">growing population</a> means people have smaller pieces of land for farming. This has led to settlements in marginalised areas that are prone to flooding. </p>
<p>Another factor contributing to people’s vulnerability is that housing and infrastructure are of poor quality. In addition, there’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420915000047">a lack of</a> economic diversification, employment opportunities and access to social services. This means that people are limited in how they can prepare for a possible flood and bounce back after it’s happened.</p>
<h2>What’s being done</h2>
<p>To address the flood disasters the Malawian government signed a comprehensive <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/english/policies/v.php?id=43755&cid=104">national disaster risk policy</a> in 2015. But <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/rhc3.12118">delivery has been mixed.</a>. This is mainly because of a lack of designated funding and a number of challenges in the existing governance approaches. </p>
<p>The government has pushed for <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420916306719?via%3Dihub">resettlement</a> of people living in flood prone areas. But planning is ineffective and giving people land with no other support can expose them to further risks. </p>
<p>Flood risk management is mostly delivered by NGOs who implement <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17477891.2017.1381582">community-based approaches</a> like early warning systems, search and rescue training, village contingency planning, and the establishment of group savings schemes. </p>
<p>There have also been attempts <a href="http://www.shirebasin.mw/">to create</a> a state-of-the-art national early warning system, based on the latest computer modelling and satellite products. Its effectiveness hasn’t been evaluated yet.</p>
<p>Despite these efforts the gaps in managing the risk of floods are significant. A network of rain gauges as well as timely weather and climate information are
essential components for early warning systems and planning. But both need to be improved. In addition, there’s not enough uptake by local communities of early warning information. </p>
<p>And on top of it all there’s barely any flood protection infrastructure – like robust dikes. What does exist is of poor quality. </p>
<p>One of the biggest problems is that there’s only <a href="https://www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/handle/1842/31421">limited involvement of local communities</a>. This has led to projects not being implemented in all affected areas. And often projects <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17477891.2017.1381582">reflect</a> the donor’s agenda rather than needs on the ground.</p>
<h2>Way forward</h2>
<p>To manage flood risks more effectively Malawi needs to take some crucial steps.</p>
<p>The first is that short-term priorities must be identified and coupled with a comprehensive long-term adaptive plan. This should also take into account the possible effects of climate change. It must provide a fine balance between physical infrastructure and improved forecasting and warning systems, among other strategies. And more comprehensive risk assessments should make use of new technologies – like remote sensing and crowd-sourcing. </p>
<p>This must be accompanied by a well-planned financial agenda. Finally, any proposed solutions must be designed with the involvement of those most affected because they are the custodians of rich local knowledge and can provide valuable insights.</p>
<p><em>Dr Nancy Chawawa, a political ecologist based in Malawi with a PhD from The University of Edinburgh, UK contributed to this article</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Šakić Trogrlić receives funding from the Scottish Government as a part of the Hydro Nation PhD Scholars Programme. </span></em></p>High poverty levels mean people lack access to land and work and they are often driven to settle in zones that are exposed to natural hazards.Robert Šakić Trogrlić, PhD Candidate in Disaster Risk Reduction, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1033482018-10-15T19:03:08Z2018-10-15T19:03:08ZYes, a tsunami could hit Sydney – causing flooding and dangerous currents<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240519/original/file-20181014-109207-1cee72t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Manly's The Corso pedestrian area could be flooded if a large tsunami arrived at Sydney Harbour. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-new-south-wales-australia-february-1038452584?src=4ADRJ-eiMjzWy1lHUTSIQQ-1-2">from www.shutterstock.com </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Sulawesi’s recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-indonesian-citys-destruction-reverberates-across-sulawesi-104470">tsunami</a> is a striking reminder of the devastating, deadly effects that the sudden arrival of a large volume of water can have.</p>
<p>Published today, our <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33156-w">new research</a> shows what might happen if a tsunami hit Sydney Harbour. A large tsunami could cause significant flooding in Manly. Even very small waves might result in dangerous currents in the entrance of the Harbour and in narrow channels such as at the Spit Bridge.</p>
<p>Beyond Sydney, large areas of the east coast of Australia would also be affected.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/making-waves-the-tsunami-risk-in-australia-60623">Making waves: the tsunami risk in Australia</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our study considered a range of tsunamis, with heights ranging from just 5cm to nearly 1.5m when measured outside the Heads of Sydney Harbour. These wave heights sound small, but because the wavelengths of tsunami are so long (tens to hundreds of kilometres), these waves contain a very large mass of water and can be incredibly powerful and destructive. Wave heights also <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/info/index.shtml">increase</a> as the tsunami encounters shallower water.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239248/original/file-20181004-52674-jjrbna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239248/original/file-20181004-52674-jjrbna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239248/original/file-20181004-52674-jjrbna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=131&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239248/original/file-20181004-52674-jjrbna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239248/original/file-20181004-52674-jjrbna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=131&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239248/original/file-20181004-52674-jjrbna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=165&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239248/original/file-20181004-52674-jjrbna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=165&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239248/original/file-20181004-52674-jjrbna.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=165&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tsunami generated by an earthquake off Chile in 1960 created waves that reached Australia..</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NSW Office of Environment and Heritage holdings</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How a tsunami might happen</h2>
<p>Most tsunamis are caused by earthquakes at sea, where a shift in the sea floor creates the sudden movement of a large volume of water.</p>
<p>Our study approach involved modelling the likely effects of different-sized tsunamis generated by earthquakes on the New Hebrides trench to the northeast (in line with the Vanuatu islands) and the Puysegur trench (south of New Zealand).</p>
<p>For each event we assigned Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI), which provide an average indication of how often tsunamis of different sizes are likely to occur.</p>
<p>The tsunamis we studied range from an ARI of 25 years to 4,700 years. The tsunami with an ARI of 4,700 had a wave height of 1.4m outside the Heads and is the largest tsunami we could reasonably expect in Sydney Harbour. An event with an ARI of 4,700 can also be considered as an event with a 1.5% chance of occurring over a 70-year lifetime. </p>
<h2>What would the tsunami look like?</h2>
<p>The tsunamis we’d expect to see in Sydney Harbour would be a sequence of waves with about 15-40 minutes on average between each peak. Some waves might break, and others might appear as a rapid rising and falling of the water level.</p>
<p>The highest water levels would depend on the tide and the size of the event – the largest events could raise the water level up to several metres higher than the predicted tide levels.</p>
<p>The visualisation below represents a tsunami in a fictional location, and shows the rise and fall of water levels (with time sped up).</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GEkbWJ7p5xQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Tsunami visualisation in a fictitious location (created by the IT Innovation team at the University of Newcastle).</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What area is at highest risk?</h2>
<p>A tsunami is not just one single wave, but generally a sequence of waves, lasting hours to days. Within the Harbour, larger waves are most likely to breach land, and high tide increases the risk. </p>
<p>The narrow part of Manly – where <a href="https://www.manlyaustralia.com.au/info/thingstodo/manly-corso/">The Corso</a> part-pedestrian mall is located – is one of the most exposed locations. The largest tsunamis we could expect may flood the entire stretch of The Corso between the open ocean and the Harbour.</p>
<p>The low-lying bays on the southern side of the Harbour could also be affected. A tsunami large enough to flood right across Manly is estimated to have a minimum ARI of 550 years, or at most a 12% chance of occurring over an average lifetime.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239108/original/file-20181003-52666-923c34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239108/original/file-20181003-52666-923c34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239108/original/file-20181003-52666-923c34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239108/original/file-20181003-52666-923c34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239108/original/file-20181003-52666-923c34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239108/original/file-20181003-52666-923c34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239108/original/file-20181003-52666-923c34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239108/original/file-20181003-52666-923c34.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maximum inundation estimated to occur for a tsunami sourced from a 9.0Mw earthquake at the Puysegur trench.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kaya Wilson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Examining these worst-case scenarios over time shows how this flooding across Manly may occur from both the ocean side and the harbour side, isolating North Head.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KmnKXhLXd7Y?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Maximum inundation estimated to occur for a tsunami sourced from a 9.0Mw earthquake at the Puysegur trench and an animation showing the arrival of this tsunami at high tide. Each frame of the animation represents a two minute time interval.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/an-indonesian-citys-destruction-reverberates-across-sulawesi-104470">An Indonesian city’s destruction reverberates across Sulawesi</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How fast would a tsunami move?</h2>
<p>Even though the smaller tsunamis may not flood the land, they could be very destructive within the Harbour itself. Our modelling shows the current speeds caused by smaller tsunamis have the potential to be both damaging and dangerous.</p>
<p>The map below shows the maximum tsunami current speeds that could occur within the Harbour for the largest event we could reasonably expect.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239109/original/file-20181003-52681-1l0a2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239109/original/file-20181003-52681-1l0a2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239109/original/file-20181003-52681-1l0a2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239109/original/file-20181003-52681-1l0a2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239109/original/file-20181003-52681-1l0a2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239109/original/file-20181003-52681-1l0a2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239109/original/file-20181003-52681-1l0a2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239109/original/file-20181003-52681-1l0a2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maximum current speeds estimated to occur for a tsunami sourced from a 9.0 magnitude earthquake at the Puysegur trench.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kaya Wilson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Areas exposed to the open ocean and locations with a narrow, shallow channel – such as those near the Spit Bridge or Anzac Bridge – would experience the fastest current speeds. A closer look at the area around the Spit Bridge, shows how even smaller tsunamis could cause high current speeds.</p>
<p>The animation below shows a comparison between the current speeds experienced during a regular spring high tide and those that may occur if a tsunami generated by a 8.5 magnitude earthquake on the New Hebrides trench coincided with a spring high tide. A tsunami of this size (0.5m when outside the Harbour) has been estimated to occur once, on average, every 110 years (a 47% chance of occurring over a lifetime).</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/1Th8JPJxcYM?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Current Speed animation and maximum current speeds expected to occur at the Spit Bridge for a tsunami sourced from a 8.5MW earthquake at the New Hebrides trench. Each frame of the animation represents a 2 minute time interval.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This video below shows similar current speeds (7m/s based on video analysis) when the Japanese tsunami of 2011 arrived in the marina in Santa Cruz, California, and caused US$28 million of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-012-0527-z">damage</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/C0Afa4pjWg4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A small, fast-moving wave can have a huge impact.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Historical records show us what happened when a tsunami generated by an earthquake off Chile reached Sydney Harbour in 1960. We didn’t have any instruments measuring current speeds then, but we have witness accounts and we know that many ships were ripped from their moorings.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239250/original/file-20181004-52688-m9d932.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239250/original/file-20181004-52688-m9d932.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239250/original/file-20181004-52688-m9d932.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239250/original/file-20181004-52688-m9d932.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239250/original/file-20181004-52688-m9d932.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239250/original/file-20181004-52688-m9d932.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239250/original/file-20181004-52688-m9d932.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/239250/original/file-20181004-52688-m9d932.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fort Denison tide gauge records of the 1960 Chilean tsunami in Sydney Harbour.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NSW Office of Environment and Heritage holdings</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A whirlpool and significant erosion was also reported in the Spit Bridge area. Photographs from the time show just how much sand was washed away at Clontarf Beach.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=203&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/240546/original/file-20181015-109219-5wjke1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Clontarf beach erosion: (Left) 2014 in usual sediment conditions and (right) 1960 post tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Northern Beaches Council holdings</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How to stay safe</h2>
<p>A large tsunami affecting Australia is unlikely but possible. Remember that tsunamis are a sequence of waves that may occur over hours to days, and the biggest wave in the sequence could occur at any time.</p>
<p>The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (<a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/">JATWC</a>), jointly operated by Geoscience Australian and the Bureau of Meteorology, provides a tsunami warning system for all of Australia.</p>
<p>Warnings when issued are broadcast on radio and television, through the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/">Bureau of Meteorology Tsunami warning centre</a> and on twitter (<a href="https://twitter.com/BOM_au">@BOM_au</a>).</p>
<p>State Emergency Services are trained to respond to a tsunami emergency and there are online resources that can help communities with <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/the-ultimate-guide-tsunami/#/">awareness</a> and <a href="https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/disaster-tabs-header/tsunami/">preparation</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The bathymetry compilations used by this research are publicly available and can be viewed as a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata2018115">publication with links for free download</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Power receives funding from the NSW Government under the State Emergency Management Projects program and the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kaya Wilson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To stay safe in a tsunami, remember that the sequence of waves may occur over hours to days, and the biggest wave in the sequence could occur at any time.Kaya Wilson, PhD Candidate, University of NewcastleHannah Power, Senior Lecturer in Coastal Science, University of NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1019152018-08-23T11:04:34Z2018-08-23T11:04:34ZSocial media’s not all bad – it’s saving lives in disaster zones<p>Social media was recently credited with reducing the number of casualties caused by air strikes in the Syrian civil war. The early warning system, developed by tech startup <a href="https://halasystems.com/">Hala Systems</a>, uses remote sensors to detect aircraft flying over the opposition-held northern province of Idlib. Alerts are then sent via Facebook and instant messaging apps such as WhatsApp to civilians and aid workers in affected areas. These messages give relevant information such as the areas likely to come under heavy bombardment and the duration of these raids.</p>
<p>Since its launch in 2016, the system has reportedly reduced the number of casualties in the region caused by air strikes by <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/17/social-media-warning-system-saving-lives-syria/">as much as 27%</a>. The system also <a href="https://www.forces.net/news/britain-supporting-social-media-air-strike-warning-system">triggers traditional air raid sirens</a> that might actually be more effective than social media in reaching key demographics in affected areas. Nevertheless, this example shows why social media has become big news for emergency managers seeking to provide accurate and timely information to people affected by disasters.</p>
<p>Incidents such as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/28/why-social-media-wouldve-saved-lives-during-hurricane-katrina/?utm_term=.9a6e57a553b9">Hurricane Sandy</a> in September 2012 have shown how disaster response teams can leverage the “<a href="https://repository.wellesley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1028&context=scholarship">power of collective intelligence</a>” given by social media. Members of the public use these platforms to share critical information that helps build a bigger picture of the situation. They also play a key role in correcting misinformation and dispelling rumours that have the potential to hinder efforts to restore critical services in affected areas.</p>
<p>Twitter hashtags in particular function as <a href="https://scholars.opb.msu.edu/en/publications/contextualizing-experiences-tracing-the-relationships-between-peo-3">“fire spaces”</a>, transforming data generated by citizens into information that helps first responders allocate resources to the people who need them most. Emergency managers frequently use information-gathering platforms such as <a href="https://www.ushahidi.com/">Ushahidi</a> and <a href="http://www.wis.ewi.tudelft.nl/twitcident/">Twitcident</a> to help them sift through the large volume of data available on these sites at each stage of the incident.</p>
<p>They have also mobilised “digital volunteers” who offer their time without having to leave home to assist with this task. Groups such as the <a href="https://thinkdisaster.com/2012/02/13/vost-virtual-operations-support-team/">Virtual Operations Support Teams</a> and the <a href="http://digitalhumanitarians.com/about">Digital Humanitarian Network</a> helped analyse the social media data generated during natural disasters such as <a href="http://digitalhumanitarians.com/news/activation-hurricane-harvey">Hurricane Harvey</a>, as well as terrorist incidents such as the November 2015 Paris terrorist attacks.</p>
<p>Social media can also be used by citizens to provide emotional and material support to those living in disaster-affected areas. Our research projects <a href="http://casceff.eu/media2/2016/05/D3.3-Communication-strategy.pdf">CascEff</a> and <a href="http://improverproject.eu/2017/06/14/deliverable-4-2-a-communication-strategy-to-build-critical-infrastructure-resilience/">IMPROVER</a> found several examples of such citizen-led social media campaigns. These included <a href="https://www.frankwatching.com/archive/2011/08/19/hoe-het-pukkelpop-drama-de-echte-kracht-toont-van-sociale-media/">#hasselthelp</a>, which provided shelter to those festival goers who had fled the 2011 <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14586001">Pukkelpop festival disaster</a>. And <a href="http://time.com/4112428/paris-shootings-porte-ouverte/">#PorteOuverte</a>, which fulfilled the same function for those caught up in the Paris terrorist attacks.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/232900/original/file-20180821-149484-141lts3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leighton Walter Killé/TCF, CC BY-ND.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These hashtags appeared to empower local communities to join in disaster response, theoretically increasing their resilience towards such incidents in the future. Yet social media users typically disengaged from these online groups once their questions about the incident had been answered. And we found that they didn’t necessarily show a stronger commitment to responding to the disasters. What’s more, emergency management organisations are likely to remain the most influential and reputable sources of crisis information for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>The problem with relying on digital media for disaster response is that <a href="https://www.oecd.org/site/schoolingfortomorrowknowledgebase/themes/ict/bridgingthedigitaldivide.htm">not everyone has access</a> to it. Many people are still sceptical about the trustworthiness and reliability of information posted online. Research shows that members of the public are still more likely to perceive traditional media such as newspapers, radio and television <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-014-1512-x%22">as more credible</a> than social media.</p>
<h2>Mixing old and new</h2>
<p>Because there’s always a risk of mobile networks also going down, any communication strategy has to involve a mix of traditional and digital media. Our research found that radio was still seen as <a href="http://library.college.police.uk/docs/role-of-media-crisis-situations-2017.pdf">the most resilient communication</a> channel that could help reach large numbers of people when power supplies were disrupted.</p>
<p><a href="http://casceff.eu/media2/2016/05/D3.3-Communication-strategy.pdf">Our work</a> <a href="http://improverproject.eu/2017/06/14/deliverable-4-2-a-communication-strategy-to-build-critical-infrastructure-resilience/">also suggests</a> there aren’t any ways social media is used that make it indispensable to emergency managers. Instead, they need to assess how people are behaving and the information they need to work out the best way to communicate in any scenario, including by learning lessons from previous disasters.</p>
<p>Overly optimistic views of social media as a panacea for the problems in crisis communication often ignore the importance of a mix of traditional and digital tools. Perhaps that’s why the Syrian air strike warning system, which sounded conventional alarms based on data gathered by social media, has proved so successful.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101915/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Reilly received funding from EC-FP7 and Horizon 2020 for this work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ioanna Tantanasi received funding from EC-FP7 and Horizon 2020 for this work.</span></em></p>Warning Syrians of approaching airstrikes via social media is helping save lives.Paul Reilly, Senior Lecturer in Social Media and Digital Society, University of SheffieldIoanna Tantanasi, Research Associate, University of SheffieldLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/965292018-05-17T20:06:48Z2018-05-17T20:06:48ZLessons in resilience: what city planners can learn from Hobart’s floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218934/original/file-20180515-122928-1xrwbpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A storm caused flooding in the CBD as it swept through Hobart.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Gee/The Mercury. Used with permission</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hobart">Hobart</a> is a city known for its risk of catastrophic fire, such as the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-06/tasmanias-1967-black-tuesday-bushfires-explained/8241698">devastating wildfires</a> of 1897-98 and 1967. As the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-24/perth-rainfall-higher-than-melbourne-hobart-and-london/9688142">second-driest city</a> in Australia, until last week it was easy to forget that Hobart is also vulnerable to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-14/hobart-floods-declared-natural-disaster/9759794">serious flooding</a>. Like many cities, Hobart’s closeness to nature can be a double-edged sword – the hilly terrain affords spectacular views of <a href="https://goo.gl/images/2y8DuX">the mountain and the river</a>, but makes the city especially prone to wildfire and flash-flooding. </p>
<p>Hobart’s lack of preparedness for the scale and intensity of the May 2018 flood is also <a href="https://theconversation.com/planning-for-floods-and-fires-now-the-recipe-for-disaster-has-changed-11832">partly attributable</a> to the city’s postwar planning. So how can Hobart and cities like it become more resilient to <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-catastrophic-disasters-striking-more-often-83599">increasingly frequent natural disasters</a>?</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/n_T_gZYe0hI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Flash flooding turns the city of Hobart into a disaster zone.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-in-a-flood-zone-heres-a-way-to-do-it-and-reduce-the-risks-86608">Higher density in a flood zone? Here's a way to do it and reduce the risks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A history of vulnerability and risk</h2>
<p>Like it or not, disasters are part of the urban landscape. So too is social inequality. And the two can be mutually reinforcing – socially isolated and disadvantaged residents are often less able to cope when disaster strikes. They may, for example, lack insurance or be less mobile. </p>
<p>Social cohesion is a key element in community disaster recovery, helping cities “bounce back” after an event. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-dont-occur-randomly-so-why-do-we-still-plan-as-if-they-do-93371">good land use planning is also important</a> to avoid creating future problems.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-healthy-environment-shouldnt-just-be-for-the-rich-10439">A healthy environment shouldn't just be for the rich</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Planning (non)-responses</h2>
<p>Like the rest of Australia, historically <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-legacy-of-liveable-cities-wont-last-without-a-visionary-response-to-growth-93729">city planning</a> in Hobart was characterised by disconnection from nature. Creeks and streams were filled in, built over or walled off (taming nature), creating risks of <a href="https://global.nature.org/content/natures-solutions-for-infrastructure-problems">catastrophic failure in unexpected conditions</a>. This approach also overlooked the important <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-green-roofs-can-protect-city-streets-from-flooding-82679">ecological functions</a> of watercourses. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hobart Rivulet, circa 1900, photographer unknown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tasmania Archive and Heritage Office, NS1013/1/344</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The recent storm event was not the worst on record. In the 1960s, the city experienced <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood/flood_history/flood_history.shtml">very severe flooding</a>. There were also several bad floods in the 1930s. But Hobart has changed since then. </p>
<p>The city has grown significantly. As houses, roads and buildings increase the paved area, Hobart has lost some of its green cover, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-sponge-cities-aim-to-re-use-70-of-rainwater-heres-how-83327">acts like a sponge</a>. And in recent times the city has had an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-29/tasmania-top-of-the-pops-for-population-growth,-report-finds/9370524">influx of residents</a> who lack experience with the city’s natural hazards.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hobart Rivulet in flood, circa 1930, Collins Street and Market Place, photographer unknown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tasmanian Archive and Heritage Office</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over the decades, the record of flood events has been partly translated into planning knowledge. For instance, Hobart’s interim town planning scheme has overlay maps indicating places prone to flooding, landslide and wildfire. </p>
<p>Planners now also apply <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-your-garden-could-help-stop-your-city-flooding-42473">water-sensitive urban design</a> principles. These include protecting floodplains from development, limiting the development of very steep land, and restricting land uses on flood-prone sites (e.g. to recreation areas).</p>
<p>Unfortunately for Hobart’s residents, many of these principles were devised after much of the city was already built. Planning is less effective at retrospectively requiring that buildings are upgraded or even relocated. </p>
<p>Given Australia’s system of property rights, planners can seldom <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914000028">relocate entire communities</a> out of harm’s way – the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01944363.2014.976586">response to the Grantham floods</a> in Queensland has been an exception. The default approach has been to leave it to the insurance system to manage risk and recovery.</p>
<h2>Whose responsibility?</h2>
<p>One of the drivers for the lack of policy on minimising disaster risks in Tasmania is the state government’s aim to reduce government involvement in risk management and <a href="http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/osem/mitigating_natural_hazards">shift responsibility onto households and businesses</a>. This is placing a greater emphasis on disaster “self-help” through insurance and risk reduction – such as clearing firebreaks, cleaning gutters and so on.</p>
<p>We assume that if a flood or fire affects residents, then insurance will allow them to get back on their feet. However, <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/news/insure-it-it-s-worth-it.html">half of residents may be underinsured</a>, according to Victorian government estimates. <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0042098017736257">The reasons</a> include being unable to afford insurance or deciding they have more pressing financial priorities. </p>
<p>Insurance can also be inadequate because it is hard to estimate replacement costs. These costs may soar after a disaster. The Hobart repair bill has already <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-14/hobart-floods-insurance-claims-come-pouring-in/9758208">climbed above A$20 million</a>, and residents may discover their policy is inadequate. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even if residents have insurance – and many don’t – it may not be enough to cover their costs in the disaster recovery phase.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/properties-under-fire-why-so-many-australians-are-inadequately-insured-against-disaster-50588">Properties under fire: why so many Australians are inadequately insured against disaster</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can planners learn from this?</h2>
<p>Even though Hobart avoided loss of life in the recent floods, we might not be so lucky next time. Governments have a key role to play in getting the balance right between regional and large-scale infrastructure planning and self-help at the household level. Focusing on self-help at the expense of planning and broader-scale mitigation can increase a city’s vulnerability. </p>
<p>We need to <a href="https://theconversation.com/moving-grantham-relocating-flood-prone-towns-is-nothing-new-4878">learn from other places</a>. Key actions should follow the principle of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461100079X">safe failure</a> and may include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>better communication of hazard mapping and using town planning scheme overlays to enforce development restrictions</p></li>
<li><p>devising state policies for watershed, coastal and bushland management to reduce risks at regional and watershed scales, which includes protecting green space and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cant-see-the-water-through-the-trees-a-better-plan-to-reduce-floods-5719">restoring floodplains</a></p></li>
<li><p>identifying opportunities for “multifunctionality” – for example, a cricket ground is also a flood retention basin</p></li>
<li><p>strengthening social cohesion and reducing inequality, so communities can bounce back faster</p></li>
<li><p>identifying properties in harm’s way and using new building codes, compulsory acquisition or even managed relocation to reduce hazard exposure</p></li>
<li><p>siting critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and electricity substations, away from floodplains and building in redundancy – backup infrastructure, for example.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Not all these solutions can be implemented immediately. Paradoxically, some actions – planting trees, for instance – could <a href="https://theconversation.com/low-flammability-plants-could-help-our-homes-survive-bushfires-53870">increase other risks, such as bushfires</a>. </p>
<p>In cities like Hobart, by learning from past mistakes and experimenting with alternative solutions, good planning can avoid putting people in harm’s way in the future.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-hazard-risk-is-it-just-going-to-get-worse-or-can-we-do-something-about-it-84286">Natural hazard risk: is it just going to get worse or can we do something about it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96529/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Byrne receives funding from the Australian Research Council for research on (i) climate change and social innovation and (ii) green space and health. He is a member of the Planning Institute Australia, Institute of Australian Geographers and Association of American Geographers. Jason donates to environmental groups (e.g. Australian Conservation Foundation). He also provides research consultancy services to state and local government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dave Kendal receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne, the federal Environment Department through the Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub of the National Environmental Science Program, and the Glenelg-Hopkins and Corangamite Catchment Management Authorities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Pharo is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia and sits on the policy sub-committee in Tasmania. She is a member of a City of Hobart transport planning committee and an active member of Bicycle Network Tasmania. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Booth receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DP170100096) and collaborates on Tourism Tracer, partly funded by Tasmanian Government (State Growth), Tourism Industry Council Tasmania and Federal Group. She is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia and sat on its Tasmanian Committee until December 2017. She also donates to planning- and environment-related non-government organisations. </span></em></p>Managing flood risk is not just ‘good planning’; it requires commitment to resilient cities by land developers, politicians and communities. Effective response means learning from mistakes.Jason Byrne, Professor of Human Geography and Planning, University of TasmaniaDave Kendal, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Management, University of TasmaniaEmma Pharo, Senior Lecturer, Geography and Environmental Studies, University of TasmaniaKate Booth, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography and Planning, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/938622018-03-26T18:58:15Z2018-03-26T18:58:15ZLessons not learned: Darwin’s paying the price after Cyclone Marcus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211906/original/file-20180326-85338-1rd90p2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fallen trees and power lines are two of the main hazards that could have been reduced with better planning for cyclones.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/geoffwhalan/25983686467/in/photolist-247fFt2-FA6vbB-25bAavb-FP4vpZ-FA6bJg-24otr2J-H7zVz3-22ukS9E-22HfYjN-H6anLh-25tnfu2-247tNyP-cQsk2-25pyvoo-bGtyu-bGuhq-NQ57x9-NQ58nL-247vpoX-FPgmgz-247bvun">Geoff Whalan/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Darwin was directly in the path of <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/releases/463/weather-update-fourth-update-on-tropical-cyclone-marcus/">Cyclone Marcus</a> and suffered <a href="https://www.facebook.com/GlobalHQ/videos/1303900283042962/?hc_ref=ARR4zDxL-sjmHtckNhX1zxrLN4bbrAmgdnOElyM7rB4Q5UAFU6LWnhOCPCuJs6GA63A&fref=nf">severe impacts</a> from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/tropical-cyclone-marcus-darwin-hit-with-destructive-130km-h-gusts-20180317-p4z4uv.html">wind gusts up to 130km/hour</a> on Saturday, March 17. Northern Territory authorities made no declaration of emergency, but the Insurance Council of Australia declared it a “<a href="https://www.insuranceandrisk.com.au/catastrophe-declared-in-darwin-for-tc-marcus/">catastrophe</a>” for the Greater Darwin region. Marcus is considered the city’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-21/cyclone-marcus-curious-darwin-answers-your-questions-about-storm/9570680">second-worst cyclone</a> since <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/pdf/tracy.pdf">Tracy</a>, which <a href="https://open.abc.net.au/explore/83458">devastated Darwin</a> on Christmas Eve 1974.</p>
<p>The good news is that no deaths have been reported. But had it been a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/intensity.shtml">category 4 or 5 cyclone, instead of category 2</a>, how would the city have fared? </p>
<p>The post-Marcus chaos in Greater Darwin is not just “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-17/tropical-cyclone-marcus-real-wake-up-call-territorians-police/9558706">a real wake-up call</a>”, but a typical case of lessons yet to be learned. For example, large shallow-rooted trees planted after Cyclone Tracy and overhead power lines brought down in the cyclone were both hazards that could have been avoided. Darwin is now engaged in a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-19/tropical-cyclone-marcus-clean-up-continues/9561930">long, difficult and costly clean-up</a>. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2iamQg7P9Qs?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Fallen trees posed one of the biggest hazards during and after the cyclone.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Cyclones are to be expected</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-10-08/no-radar,-no-satellite:-sharing-indigenous-cyclone-knowledge/9027044">Indigenous knowledge</a> as well as the Bureau of Meteorology’s historical <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/northern.shtml#history">records</a> confirm that tropical cyclones are <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/pdf/bigblowupnorth.pdf">not new</a> to Northern Australia. <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/northern.shtml#history">According to the BOM</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There are on average 7.7 days per season when a cyclone exists in the Northern Region.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"974808013369327616"}"></div></p>
<p>So was there <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-17/tropical-cyclone-marcus-real-wake-up-call-territorians-police/9558706">complacency</a> among some residents, as emergency services warned? Did infrastructure providers underestimate the threat? In hot and humid weather, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/northern-territory/darwin-locals-can-prepare-for-more-dark-nights/news-story/7ace22d24b471d4d3ce405eb5833f045">over one-third</a> of Darwin’s population went <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/18/cyclone-marcus-leaves-tens-of-thousands-in-darwin-without-power-or-drinkable-water">without power</a> for several days and safe-to-drink tap water for 48 hours. Communication <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/nt/2018/03/18/darwin-begins-massive-marcus-cleanup/">networks</a> were <a href="https://twitter.com/fanniebay/status/975300262570033152">patchy</a> for days.</p>
<p>What was the reluctance in seeking immediate support from other states despite <a href="https://www.banksa.com.au/about/media/archive/2018/19-March">banks</a> and <a href="https://www.insuranceandrisk.com.au/catastrophe-declared-in-darwin-for-tc-marcus/">insurers</a> considering this a catastrophe? Was it due to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2018/mar/21/cyclone-marcus-turnbull-sends-thoughts-five-days-after-storm-hit-darwin">Commonwealth disregard</a> for the Top End in general?</p>
<h2>How well has Darwin coped?</h2>
<p>There have been at least two opposing views on the impact of the cyclone. The first is a more optimistic one, largely because no one got killed or seriously injured. Community members spontaneously helped one another in the immediate aftermath. </p>
<p>On this view, although preparedness might have varied, people in general were prepared. Power outages for a few days were a “first world problem”. Most households were ready, for example, to use camping gas cookers. </p>
<p>Volunteers visited and helped vulnerable groups such as aged and sick people. Emergency responders, defence staff and infrastructure restoration teams are working tirelessly to return the city to normalcy.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Marcus uprooted thousands of trees across Greater Darwin, mostly African mahoganies, which were planted for revegetation after Tracy. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211907/original/file-20180326-85328-1k75zry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211907/original/file-20180326-85328-1k75zry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/211907/original/file-20180326-85328-1k75zry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211907/original/file-20180326-85328-1k75zry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211907/original/file-20180326-85328-1k75zry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211907/original/file-20180326-85328-1k75zry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211907/original/file-20180326-85328-1k75zry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/211907/original/file-20180326-85328-1k75zry.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Large shallow-rooted trees proved to be a poor choice for revegetating Darwin after Cyclone Tracy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Priyanka Surjan</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Around <a href="http://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/Media-Centre/Media-releases/2018/March/18/Tropical-Cyclone-Marcus-Clean-up-Update-11.aspx">25,800 of about 60,000 properties</a> across Greater Darwin were cut off from power. Even after a week many are <a href="https://www.powerwater.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/159289/20180325-1600-_Outage_Area_Map_-Darwin_1.pdf">still living in darkness</a>. Power outages had cascading effects: traffic signals weren’t working for days at many places and food was left to rot in the heat.</p>
<p>Water was cut off in places. For about 48 hours people were urged to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NTGovHealth/posts/387116488358486">boil tap water</a> before drinking, cooking or brushing teeth. The Health Department issued a <a href="https://health.nt.gov.au/news/post-cyclone-melioidosis-warning">warning</a> about melioidosis, a life-threatening disease <a href="https://nt.gov.au/wellbeing/health-conditions-treatments/bacterial/melioidosis">spread by contact</a> with soil, mud and surface water.</p>
<p>Fallen trees blocked many roads and caused mild to severe damage to residential, commercial and public premises. Outdoor areas were cordoned off for safety.</p>
<p>Educational institutions were <a href="https://education.nt.gov.au/news/2018/school-closures">closed for at least a day</a>. People who didn’t own a car or were unable to drive were disadvantaged for almost three days until <a href="https://nt.gov.au/driving/public-transport-cycling/bus-alerts-and-route-changes">public transport was running again</a>.</p>
<p>At several locations, tree branches are still hanging dangerously over roads, pavements, parks and roofs. Anywhere in the city or suburbs, you see major and minor roads, parks and beachfronts dotted with uprooted trees and fallen branches. The roadside piles of logs and green waste are likely to remain there for some time, as their removal is not an “<a href="https://securent.nt.gov.au/recover-from-an-emergency/tc-marcus-faqs">emergency priority</a>”. </p>
<h2>What does a city do with so much waste?</h2>
<p>Waste facilities are struggling to cope. The morning after the cyclone, vehicles queued for hours at the green waste facility. It is yet to be ascertained if arrangements can be made to manage the huge quantities of green waste. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BL_twydGzk8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Vehicles loaded with green waste queued for hours at the waste management facility.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) <a href="http://www.recoveryplatform.org/assets/tools_guidelines/Disaster%20waste%20management%20guidelines.pdf">guidelines</a> note that waste debris presents opportunities as “either a source of income or as a reconstruction material, and [can] reduce burdens on natural resources that might otherwise be harvested for reconstruction”. </p>
<p>An evaluation of green waste would help understand its recovery value. <a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/book/10.1108/S2040-7262%282012%299">Research</a> suggests that disaster waste management can account for 5–10% of the total recovery costs, often exceeding that of health care and education.</p>
<p>In October 2004, a typhoon devastated Toyooka in Japan, producing 45,000 tonnes of waste – <a href="http://www.gdrc.org/uem/disasters/disenvi/unep-tokage-report-1.pdf">1.5 years</a> of the city’s usual waste production. The 2011 tsunami in Japan produced the equivalent of of 9 years’ worth of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.09.032">municipal solid waste</a> in Iwate prefecture and 14 years’ worth in Miyagi prefecture.</p>
<h2>What can Darwin learn from this?</h2>
<p>Local government is considering <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-20/cyclone-marcus-darwin-residents-back-work-looming-threat-storm/9565912?WT.ac=statenews_nt">removing mahogany trees</a>, which were introduced <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-08/story-behind-the-darwin-cyclone-tracy-before-and-after-photos/5934596">after Tracy</a>, because of their fast growth and the expansive shade their dense canopies provide. </p>
<p>Globally, environmental dimensions of disasters are less recognised compared with social and economic dimensions. However, the loss of dense trees and the valuable ecosystem services these offer calls for environmental recovery to be a priority as well. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://australianbusinessroundtable.com.au/assets/documents/White%20Paper%20Sections/DAE%20Roundtable%20Paper%20June%202013.pdf">2013 study</a> reveals that large sums of taxpayers’ money is typically spent following disasters, whereas increasing pre-disaster investments can achieve cost savings and resilience.</p>
<p>As an example, the territory government is offering <a href="https://securent.nt.gov.au/recover-from-an-emergency/tc-marcus">relief payments</a> between A$250 and A$650 for households that were without power for 72 hours or more. The importance of putting power lines underground was recognised more than a decade ago but the work is incomplete <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-21/cyclone-marcus-curious-darwin-answers-your-questions-about-storm/9570680">due to lack of political will</a>.</p>
<p>This is the time to ask questions such as: what will be the scale of devastation and cost and duration of recovery if a category 4 or 5 cyclone hits Darwin? The next cyclone after Marcus, Nora, was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-24/tropical-cyclone-nora-to-reach-category-four-queensland/9582386">expected to be a category 4 storm</a> but was <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/weather/cyclone-nora-far-north-queensland-on-high-alert/news-story/a4a3fc9ccacdfabcef721b756f153717">downgraded to category 3</a> when it hit the western coast of Cape York on March 25. </p>
<p>Why not prioritise transformation of critical infrastructure, such as shifting all power lines underground? What role can cost-benefit analysis play to achieve resilience to category 4 or 5 cyclones and other natural disasters? </p>
<p>More broadly, how can we learn from the past? What are the new lessons we can take forward from Cyclone Marcus? And how do we inspire a city to work towards creating “<a href="https://resilientmelbourne.com.au/about-resilient-melbourne/">Resilient Darwin’</a>”?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93862/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Akhilesh Surjan received Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC's Quick Response Grant to gain an understanding and collect perishable data of disaster waste management in Darwin following Cyclone Marcus. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deepika Mathur receives funding from Australian Government's Smart Cities and Suburbs Program and is a co-recipient of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC's Quick Response Grant</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonatan A Lassa is a co-recipient of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC's Quick Response Grant to gain an understanding and collect perishable data of disaster waste management in Darwin following Cyclone Marcus.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Supriya Mathew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After Cyclone Tracy, you’d expect Darwin of all cities to be ready for the next one. But as the clean-up after Cyclone Marcus continues, it’s clear more must be done to increase the city’s resilience.Akhilesh Surjan, Associate Professor, Humanitarian, Emergency and Disaster Management Studies, Charles Darwin UniversityDeepika Mathur, Researcher in sustainable architecture, Charles Darwin UniversityJonatan A Lassa, Senior Lecturer, Humanitarian Emergency and Disaster Management, College of Indigenous Futures, Arts and Society, Charles Darwin UniversitySupriya Mathew, Postdoctoral researcher, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.