tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/disaster-preparedness-52989/articlesDisaster preparedness – The Conversation2024-02-07T16:13:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219592024-02-07T16:13:40Z2024-02-07T16:13:40ZWhy Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies<p>Canadians are facing larger disasters on a more frequent basis. There is no doubt that some of these recent and future events are the result of an increasingly unstable climate. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/fiona-hits-atlantic-canada-climate-change-means-the-region-will-see-more-frequent-storms-191313">Fiona hits Atlantic Canada: Climate change means the region will see more frequent storms</a>
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<p>Whenever more people become exposed by living in hazardous parts of the country — including those not directly attributed to climate change such as earthquakes or train derailments — their disaster risk also increases. This combines with social and economic changes, like poverty and aging populations, to increase community vulnerability. </p>
<p>Despite these evolving challenges, our emergency management systems remain strongly rooted in <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/lbrr/archives/hv%20551.5.c2%20m363%201998-eng.pdf">civil defence</a> practices developed during the Cold War. These systems <a href="https://themanitobalawjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/MLJ_46%20(Published%20Issues%20and%20Article%20Pre-prints).1/461-canadas-fractured-emergency.pdf">are over-stressed</a> by recent events and <a href="https://theconversation.com/until-we-address-chronic-underfunding-canada-will-keep-failing-at-emergency-management-174270">continue to be underfunded</a> by provincial and federal governments. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/until-we-address-chronic-underfunding-canada-will-keep-failing-at-emergency-management-174270">Until we address chronic underfunding, Canada will keep failing at emergency management</a>
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<p>Because Canadians tend only to pay close attention to these shortcomings when disasters occur, governments <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/national-disaster-response-agency-1.6868209">and the media</a> remain focused on responding to disasters, not preventing or preparing for them.</p>
<h2>Disasters cost billions</h2>
<p>Natural and technological disasters represent a significant financial burden on citizens, businesses and governments. Disaster response actions and associated recovery assistance funds have cost approximately $5.75 billion over the past 10 years, according to <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/mrgnc-mngmnt/rcvr-dsstrs/dsstr-fnncl-ssstnc-rrngmnts/index-en.aspx">Public Safety Canada</a>.</p>
<p>However, proposals to increase response capabilities in isolation aren’t the most efficient way to reduce disaster risks. Canada, especially at the federal level, <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mrgncy-mngmnt-strtgy/index-en.aspx">has developed strategies</a> and made commitments to adopt a more comprehensive approach, but it’s failing to deliver results. </p>
<p>Canada’s <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/mtgtn-strtgy/index-en.aspx#a00">Disaster Management Strategy</a> acknowledges the value of hazard mitigation and community adaptation, but there is very little to require their implementation. </p>
<p>Instead of improving mitigation, changes to the national emergency management system <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-urgently-needs-a-fema-like-emergency-management-agency-207400">currently being discussed</a> in the <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/12/15/news/canada-test-options-national-emergency-response-agency">national media</a> include the creation of a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10172535/canada-emergency-response-agency-sajjan/">federal disaster response agency</a>.</p>
<p>But that’s not likely going to be effective in managing disasters in an uncertain social, economic and environmental future. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canadas-political-system-makes-it-difficult-to-fight-floods-118511">Why Canada’s political system makes it difficult to fight floods</a>
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<p>One recognized problem is federal and provincial legislation is now out of date compared to emergency management best practices. These laws are overly dependent on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2014.889392">emergency powers</a> stemming from our experiences in the last century.</p>
<p>In the 1950s, the provinces created “<a href="https://scholars.wlu.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1460&context=cmh">civil defence</a>” systems against enemy attacks, with the option to use such systems in the event of natural disasters. These early laws became their first emergency management legislation. Governmental use of these existing powers, including suspending civil rights, has since been the only approach available. </p>
<p>It makes more sense for governments, <a href="https://parl.canadiana.ca/view/oop.debates_HOC2104_01/499">as Prime Minister Louis St. Laurent stated in 1951</a> with regard to using the War Measures Act, “to avoid taking powers of the grave character which no democratic government wishes to have, as a government, unless those powers are really necessary for the safety of the state.”</p>
<h2>Changing the Emergencies Act</h2>
<p>A review of the existing <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/e-4.5/index.html">Emergencies Act</a> is clearly necessary. </p>
<p>The current wording establishes different powers available to the federal government under four types of emergencies. </p>
<p>Public welfare emergencies cover natural and technological disasters, while public order emergencies involve civil unrest, as was the case of the Emergencies Act’s use in February 2022 to end the <a href="https://themanitobalawjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/articles/MLJ_46%20(Published%20Issues%20and%20Article%20Pre-prints).1/461-introduction.pdf">so-called Freedom Convoy’s occupation of Ottawa</a>. </p>
<p>The other two types are focused on national defence related to international emergencies and wars. This may contribute to the perception that disasters are a <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/canada/military-there-for-canadians-in-emergencies/wcm/82301acc-5d4d-4428-b43e-b617845f54ea">national defence responsibility</a>. </p>
<p>The public welfare section of the Emergencies Act is clearly inappropriate and redundant considering provincial jurisdiction over emergency management. Provincial laws and systems cover the same range of special powers, and the Emergencies Act prevents the government of Canada from interfering in the provinces’ responses.</p>
<p>The section should be replaced with a process for the federal government to formally recognize provincial and municipal states of emergency. This would acknowledge decision-making belongs at the local and provincial level while giving federal cabinet ministers the ability to direct departmental resources to support provincial responses. </p>
<p>In fact, a provision in the federal <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-4.56/index.html">Emergency Management Act</a> that describes how Ottawa should prepare for disasters <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/E-4.56/page-1.html#h-214379">already sets a requirement for ministers to do this</a>. It states: “Each minister shall include in an emergency management plan: (a) any programs, arrangements or other measures to assist provincial governments and, through the provincial governments, local authorities.” </p>
<h2>No clear role</h2>
<p>The current emergency management system, designed around the division of roles, responsibilities and powers between federal and provincial governments, does not have a clear role for a national response agency. </p>
<p>Nor can the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9882263/canada-military-help-emergencies/">Canadian Armed Forces</a> continue to be tasked as a routine solution. The resources required in times of disaster go beyond the traditional 911 emergency services to include utilities, private and not-for-profit agencies and a greater role for citizen involvement. But these resources are located in provinces and organized locally.</p>
<p>Emergency management therefore needs to be integrated into decision-making by all levels of government and communities to be effective. </p>
<p>There are still unrealized opportunities to improve inter-provincial co-operation, and there’s still an urgent need for better funding. The creation of a response-focused national agency will not address these underlying problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jack Lindsay is affiliated with the Canadian RIsk and Hazards Network and the International Association of Emergency Managers </span></em></p>Governments and the media remain focused on responding to disasters, not preventing or preparing for them. Here’s what must change — and will and won’t work — as Canada faces increased disaster risks.Jack Lindsay, Associate Professor and Chair of Applied Disaster and Emergency Studies Department, Brandon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209402024-01-17T23:10:26Z2024-01-17T23:10:26ZWe can’t rely on the ‘dogs breakfast’ of disaster warnings to do the hard work of building community resilience<p>In the wake of cyclone Jasper, the new Australian Warning System has been roundly criticised. The system has been characterised as a “dog’s breakfast” and a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-bugs-australian-warning-system/103235574">cock-up of massive proportions</a>”.</p>
<p>For both emergency warnings, as well as for general awareness-raising around disaster preparedness, one-way communications are the default in risk management. </p>
<p>This reliance on communications is wishful thinking.</p>
<p>Whether as text messages and alerts when disasters strike, or as pamphlets and expert advice to encourage preparedness, we need to rethink how we use communications if we want more resilient communities.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-disaster-strikes-emergency-responders-cant-respond-to-every-call-communities-must-be-helped-to-help-themselves-216644">When disaster strikes, emergency responders can't respond to every call. Communities must be helped to help themselves</a>
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<h2>Warnings reflect unreasonable expectations</h2>
<p>As <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-16/ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-bugs-australian-warning-system/103235574">noted by Australians</a> in the aftermath of cyclone Jasper and the <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-maribyrnong-river-flood-warnings-that-receded-then-went-unheeded-20230928-p5e8ft.html">Maribyrnong floods</a>, the advice in warnings is often perceived to be incorrect, late, vague, and confusing.</p>
<p>Rather than an error that can be <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/maribyrnong-flood-forecasting-and-early-warnings-must-be-improved-report-finds-20231006-p5ea7x.html">fixed with better content</a>, this reflects unreasonable expectations. </p>
<p>We expect a warning to be sufficiently abstract to be useful across large regions and for many people with varying levels of exposure and capacity. </p>
<p>At the same time, we also expect information specific enough for stressed and possibly traumatised individuals to implement in life-threatening situations.</p>
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<p>In response to recommendations from numerous inquiries, authorities have applied standards and terminology to ensure consistency. While this sounds reasonable, it means that future warnings will continue to be ineffective.</p>
<p>It is worth repeating that risks are <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/files/670_72351.pdf">dynamic</a> and personal. Communications useful to a young, well-connected longtime resident will be received very differently by a middle aged, isolated, “tree change” individual who has grown up in urban areas.</p>
<p>That a generic warning is unable to satisfy the needs of diverse individuals, experiencing varying levels of hazard, spread over large areas, and over time is unsurprising. What is surprising is the belief that “better warnings” will.</p>
<h2>Repeating the same mistakes</h2>
<p>Warnings and awareness raising for disaster preparedness reflect how the risk sector relies on communications to “engage” the public. This is based on a <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.570">discredited</a> approach that assumes communications can prompt targeted, lasting behaviour change.</p>
<p>The development of the <a href="https://www.australianwarningsystem.com.au">Australian Warning System</a> reflects this reliance. It is a position reaffirmed in the reports, commissions, and inquiries that have followed recent Australian disasters. </p>
<p>For example, in the 2020 <a href="https://www.royalcommission.gov.au/system/files/2020-12/Royal%20Commission%20into%20National%20Natural%20Disaster%20Arrangements%20-%20Report%20%20%5Baccessible%5D.pdf">Royal Commission into National Natural Disaster Arrangements</a>, a whole chapter is dedicated to “Emergency Information and Warnings”. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/disastrous-floods-in-wa-why-were-we-not-prepared-197407">Disastrous floods in WA – why were we not prepared?</a>
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<p>Similarly, one focus of the ongoing <a href="https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/floodinquiry">inquiry</a> into the 2022 Victorian floods is on the “adequacy and effectiveness of early warning systems”. As it was for the 2011 <a href="http://floodsreview.archive.vic.gov.au/about-the-review/final-report.html">Comrie Review</a>, communications go unquestioned as the primary way to engage the public.</p>
<p>Frustration with repeated failure is becoming evident as successive commissions and inquiries hear the echoes of past efforts. The NSW 2022 <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">flood inquiry</a> stands out for its blunt recognition that Australians appear to be locked in a cycle. Disasters expose systemic failings that result in recommendations that go unimplemented. The report read:</p>
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<p>The Inquiry heard a deep sense of frustration from many flood-affected residents and community members over a lack of implementation and change over time, despite multiple previous reviews. Many were sceptical that this Inquiry would succeed in effecting significant change. Similar findings on implementation (or lack thereof) were made in the 2020 NSW Independent Bushfire Inquiry, which recommended that a central accountability mechanism be established to track implementation of the report.</p>
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<p>But what is missed in all of these reviews is a critical examination of our tendency to default to communications.</p>
<h2>The cost of being reactive</h2>
<p>Part of the problem with our reliance on communications is that, in the case of warnings, by the time they arrive we are reacting to an unfolding crisis, rather than preparing for one. This raises the costs significantly.</p>
<p>The resulting costs of disasters, currently $38 billion annually, are <a href="https://www.deloitte.com/au/en/services/economics/perspectives/building-australias-natural-disaster-resilience.html">expected to rise</a> to between $73 and $94 billion annually by 2060, according to a Deloitte report. The report argued:</p>
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<p>The Australian economy is facing $1.2 trillion in cumulative costs of natural disasters over the next 40 years even under a low emissions scenario. This shows there is the potential for large economic gains from investments to improve Australia’s resilience to natural disasters. Targeted investments in both physical (such as infrastructure) and community (such as preparedness programs) resilience measures are predicted to significantly reduce the increasing costs of natural disasters</p>
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<p>Disaster costs are an unavoidably shared burden. Whether in the form of disaster response, relief, and recovery or in the form of investment in preparedness, <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/64-million-package-ex-tropical-cyclone-jasper-disaster-recovery">public funds</a> will inevitably be required in ever-larger amounts.</p>
<p>This situation results in <a href="https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australia-s-floods-were-fourth-most-costly-global-disaster-in-2022-20230110-p5cbhx">astronomical expenditures</a> during events and, later, “pinching pennies” for preparedness. This bias towards response and recovery over preparedness is known, made all the more frustrating because preparedness is <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/disaster-funding/report">shown to be</a> cost-effective.</p>
<h2>So what should happen instead?</h2>
<p>Communications do not create community resilience, they activate it. </p>
<p>Our recent research shows that, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/jfr3.12861">rather than communications</a>, we need to engage meaningfully with communities. This means respecting their positions and values and appreciating that resilience is a long, slow, collaborative process that requires humility, active listening, experience, reflection, and support. </p>
<p>Our research shows that by conducting one-on-one engagement with members of the community, we can better understand their circumstances and support their agency. This has helped people as they learn about risk. They’ve shared lessons with their neighbours and helped family members to better protect themselves. This means we’re seeing knowledge and risk mitigation <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/epdf/10.1142/S2345737623410014">circulate through communities</a>. </p>
<p>This way of partnering takes time and takes work, but it opens pathways for the learning and behaviour changes that help our communities expand their resilience. While it is expensive, the predicted costs of disasters more than justify such efforts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/every-australian-will-be-touched-by-climate-change-so-lets-start-a-national-conversation-about-how-well-cope-196934">Every Australian will be touched by climate change. So let's start a national conversation about how we'll cope</a>
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<p>As parts of Queensland and Victoria continue to be battered by disasters, it is time to admit that communications alone do not build resilience. They play an important role, but they are only one element of what needs to be a long-term partnership.</p>
<p>Rather than scooping the “dog’s breakfast” back into the bowl, we need to consider the underlying causes of the mess. With resilience, Australians will be ready and able to share in the growing burden of risk management.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Robert Cook receives funding from Melbourne Water. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Kamstra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Whether it’s pamphlets aimed at prevention or text alerts, mass communication is often relied on during disasters. This flawed approach can be improved by engaging meaningfully with communities.Brian Robert Cook, Associate Professor of Geography, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2083482023-07-20T17:43:17Z2023-07-20T17:43:17ZWildfire evacuations: How our diverse experiences can strengthen disaster response<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538347/original/file-20230719-21-gs1kpo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=266%2C1187%2C6563%2C3655&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Beyond the danger to human life and economies, wildfires also present considerable danger to communities and the mental well-being of survivors. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Noah Berger)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/wildfire-evacuations-how-our-diverse-experiences-can-strengthen-disaster-response" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Wildfire affects us all. Differently. This is the central message from research about the social dimensions of climate hazards. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/cndn-dsstr-dtbs/index-en.aspx">Considerable research</a> has calculated potential land area burned, counted the dollars spent in evacuation and recovery and proposed technical and <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9220164">infrastructural adaptation</a> measures to cope with longer and more intense fire seasons. </p>
<p>However, less attention has been paid to how different groups of people are affected and the intangible social losses they experience. </p>
<p>As researchers working on gender, diversity and environment, we believe that to effectively address climate hazards like wildfire, we must consider the diverse experiences of people. We must also account for longstanding “taken for granted” institutions and create processes that empower local people to plan, respond and learn from their specific experiences. </p>
<h2>The diverse experiences of wildfire</h2>
<p>Over the past decade, we have conducted multiple projects in the boreal region of western Canada to learn how residents experience and plan for wildfire. </p>
<p>While governments and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2020.06.008">media tend to focus on the economic losses of wildfire</a>, community residents tend to focus on losses associated with mental and emotional well-being, social exclusions and the grief they experience from changes to the places and landscapes they love. </p>
<p>Even within small communities, <a href="https://harvest.usask.ca/handle/10388/13414">such effects vary considerably</a> according to peoples’ gender, socio-economic status, Indigenous identity, age, their social networks and other characteristics. <a href="https://harvest.usask.ca/handle/10388/14012">And many of these characteristics intersect with one another,</a> resulting in diverse experiences of wildfire. </p>
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<img alt="A group of people standing in front of a white board." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537946/original/file-20230718-21-qf2dvy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Doig River First Nation members and staff in B.C. work with PhD candidate Michaela Sidloski of the University of Saskatchewan to consider how social impacts and considerations should be embedded into a community climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation plan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Michaela Sidloski)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1824892">Our research</a>, for instance, provided examples of Indigenous women with young children worrying that their children would be taken away during evacuations if they did not “behave.” </p>
<p>In other instances, men felt pressure to stay and fight the fires to protect their assets, despite the health and safety risks. Meanwhile community members were worried about how the fires would affect their sense of belonging to a place.</p>
<p>Other studies have similarly shown that people experience wildfire differently at various intersections of, for example, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23251042.2016.1246086">rural identity and gender</a>, <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44127063">youth or age and Indigeneity</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0308518X16669511">affluence and physical mobility</a>. </p>
<p>These differences are influenced by the social institutions that shape our experiences, such as colonial legacies and gendered norms and expectations. </p>
<p>In the above example, the women’s experiences of anxiety were influenced by legacies of harmful assimilative practices of residential schools and the Sixties Scoop, which <a href="https://indigenousfoundations.arts.ubc.ca/sixties_scoop/">forcibly removed Indigenous children from their families</a>. This in addition to the ongoing inequalities and injustices that see <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/census-indigenous-children-care-1.6590075">Indigenous children over-represented in foster systems</a>.</p>
<p>Masculine norms and expectations to be community protectors also often influence men’s decisions to “stay and fight” during the event and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2013.01.002">create barriers to their willingness to access mental health assistance afterwards</a>. </p>
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<span class="caption">Tina Elliott, an MES student at the University of Saskatchewan, worked with residents of Wadin Bay, Saskatchewan’s first FireSmart community, to develop a guidebook for learning and adaptation following the major wildfires in northern Saskatchewan in 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Tina Elliott)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Institutions can help or hinder</h2>
<p>Institutions we take for granted can exacerbate the secondary risks people face from wildfire events. </p>
<p>Top-down, command-and-control approaches to emergency management are often very effective in getting people out of immediate harm’s way when wildfires draw near. But evacuation triage processes that <a href="https://meridian.allenpress.com/human-organization/article-abstract/75/1/59/72446/Asking-for-a-Disaster-Being-At-Risk-in-the?redirectedFrom=fulltext">prioritize physical health risks may result in the fragmentation of extended family support networks</a>.</p>
<p>Realizing these gaps, Indigenous residents and their governments have often taken the initiative to offer culturally appropriate and timely provision of food, supplies, temporary residences and social supports for evacuees in addition to fighting the fires. </p>
<p>The “<a href="https://harvest.usask.ca/handle/10388/11913">Rez Cross</a>”, hosted by Beardy’s and Okemasis First Nation in Saskatchewan in 2015, is but one example. </p>
<p>While people are impacted by wildfire and evacuations in different ways, community members also have important knowledge — including information about the land, social context, cultural protocols, and local values — which is critical during and after wildfires and other extreme events. </p>
<p>In our studies, when residents spoke about the need to rebuild their communities, they meant much more than the physical bricks and mortar, calling for projects that demonstrate care for one another and learn from the past. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"618836692955475968"}"></div></p>
<p>Learning from these experiences, we are now engaging in research that supports local people from diverse situations <a href="https://harvest.usask.ca/handle/10388/13414">to work together to share experiences and knowledge related to wildfire impacts</a> and <a href="https://www.canva.com/design/DAFG2_u28Og/9qI7fauoz2bSRPJKnK3zbQ/view?utm_content=DAFG2_u28Og&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=publishsharelink">to co-design effective local strategies</a>. </p>
<p>This is hopeful work. </p>
<h2>Working together builds resilience</h2>
<p>Addressing climate change and climate hazards requires governments, community-based organizations and even private sector entities at all levels to fund and <a href="https://research-groups.usask.ca/reed/progress-news-articles/research-update-building-a-pathway-to-climate-resilience-in-tsaa-%C3%A7h%C3%A9-ne-dane.php">support communities.</a> </p>
<p>This will help communities plan and adapt in ways that account for diversity of experience, address underlying social inequalities and draw on local strengths and knowledge. </p>
<p>An inclusive approach involves meaningful engagement processes with diverse groups of people within communities, facilitated by robust funding and social infrastructure, alongside a re-thinking of institutions or “rules in use” that are taken for granted. </p>
<p>By accounting for social dimensions in each of these contexts, we can help empower communities to leverage local innovation and strengthen their resilience in the face of climate hazards.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208348/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maureen Reed receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amber J. Fletcher receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heidi Walker receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>To effectively address climate hazards like wildfire, we must consider the diverse experiences of people, account for longstanding institutions and create processes that empower local people.Maureen G. Reed, Distinguished Professor and UNESCO Chair in Biocultural Diversity, Sustainability, Reconciliation and Renewal, University of SaskatchewanAmber J. Fletcher, Professor, Sociology & Social Studies, University of ReginaHeidi Walker, Research Associate, Natural Resources, University of ManitobaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2068512023-06-05T19:34:17Z2023-06-05T19:34:17ZWildfire preparedness and response must include planning for unhoused people and other vulnerable populations<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/wildfire-preparedness-and-response-must-include-planning-for-unhoused-people-and-other-vulnerable-populations" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The 2023 Canadian wildfire season is off to a roaring start. In Alberta, there have been more than 560 wildfires so far — <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/8d86d267dcf44ad085a11939186f3d3a">the highest recorded number of fires since 2018</a>, and the season has only just begun. Tens of thousands of residents have been evacuated and a <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/emergency.aspx">state of emergency</a> was declared across the province. </p>
<p>Wildfires are not new to the region. The <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/dataset/7cc619bd-56ce-488e-b007-cada28430589/resource/6c6560d3-0a8e-4550-b1d1-86e58409dea2/download/2016horseriverwildfirereview-mar2017.pdf">2016 Horse River/Fort McMurray Wildfire</a> was the worst wildfire and most costly disaster in recent Canadian history. Meanwhile, on the opposite side of the country, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/why-are-wildfires-raging-canadas-eastern-nova-scotia-province-2023-06-02/">Nova Scotia has already experienced a historic 200 wildfires</a>, resulting in a local <a href="https://beta.novascotia.ca/programs-and-services/state-emergency">state of emergency</a> in Halifax Regional Municipality and more than 25,000 displaced residents. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-wildfires-affect-climate-change-and-vice-versa-158688">How wildfires affect climate change — and vice versa</a>
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</em>
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<p>As public health and disaster management scholars, our research focuses on how best to support the health of vulnerable populations in adverse situations, including through disasters, political challenges and geographic isolation. We have been devastated watching news coverage of the recent wildfires, including in one of our home provinces. However, we are not shocked. </p>
<p>With the impacts of climate change, wildfires in Canada will continue to intensify in strength and frequency. Enclosed shelter is paramount in reducing exposure to wildfire smoke. Yet, what happens to the <a href="https://www.homelesshub.ca/about-homelessness/homelessness-101/how-many-people-are-homeless-canada">nearly 35,000 unhoused Canadians</a> on any given night who cannot easily evacuate or shelter indoors? </p>
<h2>Impact on the unhoused</h2>
<p>Research suggests that unhoused people are most vulnerable in disasters as <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/pdf/10.3316/ielapa.657064282083772">they are often the first to experience them</a> and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13753-019-00228-y">often do not have the ability to prepare</a> or alleviate their risks. In particular, studies show unhoused people’s disproportionate risks to health during <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306557">heat events</a> <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/isee.2022.O-OP-116">and wildfire</a> due to limited access to appropriate shelter. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-we-fight-the-alberta-and-b-c-wildfires-we-must-also-plan-for-future-disasters-205818">As we fight the Alberta and B.C. wildfires, we must also plan for future disasters</a>
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<p>Many unhoused people have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002%2Fjcop.22653">pre-existing health issues that can be worsened during disasters</a>. These include substance use disorder, mental illness and chronic conditions. For people with a substance use disorder, there can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.7028">significant disruptions to accessing treatment medications and inequities in opioid-related deaths</a> in communities vulnerable to disasters. </p>
<p>Even for unhoused people outside of evacuated communities, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11524-020-00483-1">poor air quality caused by wildfire smoke can cause heat stroke, dehydration and respiratory illness</a>. </p>
<p>Despite these unique harms, unhoused people have <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/pdf/10.3316/ielapa.657064282083772">limited access to resources and supports</a> that facilitate evacuation and post-disaster recovery. Both Alberta and Nova Scotia have relied on <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/emergency.aspx#jumplinks-7">the use of emergency alerts</a>, yet many unhoused people do not have access to technology for emergency alerts and are not eligible for <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/emergency.aspx?gclid=CjwKCAjwscGjBhAXEiwAswQqNEwrdKlEbH5Y7isYACe19_G8d6UG_nNV0LkbwtLYSwO0onHrv2RCSxoCfisQAvD_BwE#financialsupports">disaster relief support</a>. </p>
<p>Evacuation centres are open to all, yet <a href="https://www.samhsa.gov/dtac/disaster-planners/homelessness">stigma</a> and <a href="https://nhchc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/disasterbrief092014.pdf">mistrust of authorities</a> can prevent access for the unhoused. Furthermore, research shows that authorities <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/15327086221130317">tend to provide more support for those who have lost their housing due to wildfires than those who were previously unhoused</a>. </p>
<h2>Planning for unique risks</h2>
<p>As many Canadian provinces are currently experiencing, extreme heat and wildfires are increasing in frequency and intensity. </p>
<p>Loss of housing and infrastructure compounds an already fragile housing environment, especially for renters and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3556-9">Indigenous populations</a>. <a href="https://policyalternatives.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/BC%20Office/2016/05/CCPA-BC-Affordable-Housing.pdf">A lack of affordable housing</a>, aggravated by disasters, further reduces the likelihood that people living precariously will secure permanent housing, which would better protect them during future wildfire seasons. </p>
<p>Although cooling centres open during extreme heat, <a href="https://www.edmonton.ca/programs_services/emergency_preparedness/extreme-weather">there are few respite centres during periods of low air quality</a>, particularly in the evening. Looking at other provinces, <a href="https://www.bchousing.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/Extreme-Heat-Response-Action-Plan%2B2022.pdf">Housing BC</a> and <a href="https://endhomelessnesswinnipeg.ca/wp-content/uploads/202206-Homelessness-Emergency-Response-Plan.pdf">End Homelessness Winnipeg</a> are working towards ensuring unhoused people are supported during extreme heat and wildfire smoke. However it is unclear how unhoused populations are being helped during the current wildfires. </p>
<p>Our concern as researchers is that there is an alarming lack of international, national and provincial plans or guidelines that consider the unique risks and needs of unhoused populations during wildfires. </p>
<p>What is apparent is that response <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002%2Fjcop.22653">often falls on service providers</a> who support the unhoused, despite adequate housing being <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/en/special-procedures/sr-housing/human-right-adequate-housing">an international human right</a> that should be the responsibility of the government. </p>
<h2>Support during disasters</h2>
<p>It is imperative for all levels of the Canadian government to consider how to best support unhoused people during disasters. </p>
<p>Looking at <a href="https://www.samhsa.gov/dtac/disaster-planners/homelessness">international responses to other disasters</a>, promising practices include trauma-informed and addictions/mental health training for emergency responders and evacuation personnel, outreach services, <a href="https://www.listoscalifornia.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/508_LIS_128_092820_DGH_4pp_web_dAf.pdf">developing inclusive materials for preparedness and response</a> (for example, flyers and handouts), providing inclusive low-barrier evacuation spaces, and <a href="https://nhchc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/disasterbrief092014.pdf">dedicating resources to post-disaster recovery and support for the unhoused</a>. </p>
<p>Most importantly, any response must involve a co-ordinated partnership between community organizations, the government and those with the experience of being unhoused.</p>
<p>We need to better prepare for Canada’s wildfire season by including high risk and extremely marginalized populations, such as those who are unhoused, in emergency management plans and practices. Greater consideration of high-risk populations will ensure no one gets left behind.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holly Mathias receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) Vanier Canada Graduate Program and the University of Alberta. She is a member of the Canadian Students for Sensible Drug Policy - Edmonton Chapter. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashleigh Rushton receives funding from the Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR). </span></em></p>There is an alarming lack of disaster preparedness plans in Canada that consider the unique risks and needs of unhoused people during wildfires.Holly Mathias, PhD student, School of Public Health, University of AlbertaAshleigh Rushton, Postdoctoral Fellow, Health Sciences, University of The Fraser ValleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1925772022-10-16T07:58:54Z2022-10-16T07:58:54Z‘Would you like lunch? Can I clean out the chook house?’: what flood survivors actually need after disaster strikes<p>The floods ravaging Victoria have destroyed hundreds of homes and <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/victoria-floods-man-found-dead-floodwaters-rochester/2631988f-ae79-4416-858f-41d436bdafe8">left</a> at least one person dead. Some rivers are not <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/16/victoria-floods-thousands-of-homes-to-be-inundated-or-cut-off-as-some-swollen-rivers-peak-on-monday">expected to</a> peak until Monday and <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary">more wet weather</a> may leave towns battling floodwaters again in the coming weeks.</p>
<p>We’ve been <a href="https://lighthouse.mq.edu.au/media-releases/flooded-in-2022-share-your-experience-to-improve-flood-safety">researching</a> the experiences of people who survived floods in Queensland and New South Wales this year. Our initial findings offer insights as Victoria now suffers its own flood disaster.</p>
<p>The current crisis is far from over. Those affected will be feeling confused and overwhelmed. Well-meaning helpers are likely to rush in, and recovery agencies will be mobilising. </p>
<p>In the difficult weeks and months ahead, here’s what Victorian flood survivors will be going though – and how best to help.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man hoses ground next to sign saying 'Bridgewater Hotel'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489879/original/file-20221016-39131-6rvu7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489879/original/file-20221016-39131-6rvu7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489879/original/file-20221016-39131-6rvu7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489879/original/file-20221016-39131-6rvu7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489879/original/file-20221016-39131-6rvu7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489879/original/file-20221016-39131-6rvu7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489879/original/file-20221016-39131-6rvu7n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Insights from survivors of flooding earlier this year may help Victorians in the current flood crisis.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan McCarthy/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>‘Just one step in front of the other’</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://lighthouse.mq.edu.au/media-releases/flooded-in-2022-share-your-experience-to-improve-flood-safety">study</a> involves researchers from Macquarie University, University of Southern Queensland and Queensland University of Technology, and is funded by Natural Hazards Research Australia.</p>
<p>Since late August this year, we’ve interviewed more than 200 flood survivors from about 40 communities.</p>
<p>Our research area stretches from the Queensland town of Maryborough down to Sydney’s Hawkesbury-Nepean Valley, taking in communities west of Brisbane as well as those in the Northern Rivers area around Lismore.</p>
<p>Some flood survivors we interviewed in September and October had experienced three or four floods this year – and lost everything multiple times. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/one-of-the-most-extreme-disasters-in-colonial-australian-history-climate-scientists-on-the-floods-and-our-future-risk-178153">'One of the most extreme disasters in colonial Australian history': climate scientists on the floods and our future risk</a>
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</em>
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<p>Almost eight months after the worst of the floods, many are not back in their homes. Some have returned but don’t have electricity or water, and only have one or two habitable rooms in what is otherwise a shell of a house. </p>
<p>People were worn down by the multiple floods and getting back on their feet each time. They’d faced difficulties getting help from recovery organisations, and dreaded another summer the same as the last.</p>
<p>As one flood-affected resident said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s just one step in front of the other, because what else can we do?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another participant expressed frustration with the recovery efforts of their local council:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This isn’t their first rodeo. What the **** are they doing?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Some of the worst affected people lived in properties that had never flooded before. Some didn’t act to protect their belongings because their homes were built above all previous flood levels. But their homes were inundated to the ceilings, and they lost everything.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-simply-havent-got-it-in-me-to-do-it-again-imagining-a-new-heart-for-flood-stricken-lismore-178982">'I simply haven’t got it in me to do it again': imagining a new heart for flood-stricken Lismore</a>
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<h2>An avalanche of decisions</h2>
<p>Having disorganised thoughts is a <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33228498/">normal</a> response to stress and trauma. We spoke to many flood survivors who felt as if their brains were “scrambled” during and after the disaster. </p>
<p>Many said it had led to poor decision-making that left them facing a more complex and protracted recovery. For example, some who chose to delay evacuation faced trauma that could have been avoided, such as the loss of pets. Others regretted decisions made during the clean up.</p>
<p>Some people had the added stress of having to decide if they must permanently leave their homes – because, for example, it is built on a floodplain or is too damaged to repair. This additional emotional strain was also experienced by survivors of Victoria’s Black Saturday <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781315600734-36/post-bushfire-relocation-decision-making-personal-wellbeing-case-study-victoria-australia-lisa-gibbs-hugh-colin-gallagher-karen-block-elyse-baker">bushfires</a>.</p>
<p>Cleaning up after the floods has been fraught. Many people didn’t take photos of their damaged houses before they were stripped out - and are now struggling to prove to their insurance company how badly their house was affected.</p>
<p>Wonderful people helped with the flood clean-up - but in some cases, it meant everything happened too fast. Precious damaged items that might have been cleaned or repaired – such as photos or a grandfather’s timber chair – were instead chucked out. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="pile of refuse outside flooded home" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489880/original/file-20221016-15-h7mlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489880/original/file-20221016-15-h7mlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489880/original/file-20221016-15-h7mlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489880/original/file-20221016-15-h7mlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489880/original/file-20221016-15-h7mlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489880/original/file-20221016-15-h7mlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489880/original/file-20221016-15-h7mlp6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some interviewees allowed precious household items to be discarded – and later regretted it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jason O'Brien/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The many questions from those offering help were overwhelming: what do you need? What can we do? We found in the first few weeks, survivors generally had capacity to answer only very specific questions involving a “yes” or “no” answer: would you like lunch? Can I clean out the chook house? Can I get you a trailer or generator?</p>
<p>Tracking down help was a grind. Every call seemed not to reach the right person to talk to, and ended in a promise that the person would call them back. Frequently, they didn’t.</p>
<p>Some people felt insurance companies were dragging the chain, preventing them from rebuilding or relocating. Others with properties that had never flooded never thought they needed insurance – and their homes may now be un-insurable.</p>
<p>Local communities stepped up to carry survivors through the initial clean-up and recovery – a <a href="https://www.naturalhazards.com.au/news-and-events/news-and-views/bouncing-back-how-community-strengths-can-lead-recovery#:%7E:text=Recovery%20from%20a%20bushfire%2C%20flood%2C%20cyclone%2C%20or%20other,that%20leads%20to%20recovery%2C%20and%20no%20specific%20timeframes">common experience</a> after disasters. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-in-victoria-are-uncommon-heres-why-theyre-happening-now-and-how-they-compare-to-the-past-192391">Floods in Victoria are uncommon. Here's why they're happening now – and how they compare to the past</a>
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<p>But once the urgent work is done, volunteers usually return to their families, lives and jobs. For survivors, the feeling of being forgotten can be overwhelming – especially for those who live alone, or those struggling to access mental health services.</p>
<p>Our in-depth interviews with flood survivors will inform the next phase of the research, an online survey opening later this month. Anyone interested in contributing can contact us <a href="https://limesurvey.mq.edu.au/index.php/279287?lang=en">here</a>. </p>
<p>Many themes we identified in our research so far also emerged after the Black Saturday bushfires in 2009. The journey of recovery from that tragedy is <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-a-decade-after-the-black-saturday-fires-its-time-we-got-serious-about-long-term-disaster-recovery-planning-158078">still underway</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="charred remains of home after bushfire" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489881/original/file-20221016-25-tsbf7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489881/original/file-20221016-25-tsbf7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489881/original/file-20221016-25-tsbf7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489881/original/file-20221016-25-tsbf7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489881/original/file-20221016-25-tsbf7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489881/original/file-20221016-25-tsbf7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489881/original/file-20221016-25-tsbf7h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Themes to emerge from the flood research echo those from research into Black Saturday.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Andrew Brownbill/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The age of disasters</h2>
<p>As we write, floodwaters in parts of Victoria continue to rise. Elsewhere the water is receding, but flooding is <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/flooding-to-remain-for-a-week-more-evacuation-orders-are-issued-man-found-dead-in-floodwaters-20221016-p5bq2z.html">expected to persist</a> for days yet.</p>
<p>We were saddened by the hundreds of conversations with flood survivors this year. But we also have huge admiration for people’s determination to pick themselves up.</p>
<p>And despite the devastation they’d experienced, most interviewees found silver linings. Some found renewed faith in their neighbours, friends and towns. Others were committed to being less attached to things, to helping their community when they can, or to be more responsive to family and friends.</p>
<p>Our research is too recent to provide tangible help to Victoria’s flood survivors. But we hope it will help in future as Australians recover from floods and other disasters. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>The authors would like to acknowledge their fellow researchers on this project: Professor Kim Johnston, Associate Professor Fiona Miller, Associate Professor Anne Lane, Dipika Dabas and Harriet Narwal.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-than-a-decade-after-the-black-saturday-fires-its-time-we-got-serious-about-long-term-disaster-recovery-planning-158078">More than a decade after the Black Saturday fires, it's time we got serious about long-term disaster recovery planning</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192577/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mel Taylor receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara Ryan receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia. She is affiliated with Emergency Media and Public Affairs, a community of practice of emergency communicators and engagement practitioners. </span></em></p>2022 has been Australia’s year of freak floods. Here’s what stricken Victorians are set to experience in the weeks and months ahead.Mel Taylor, Associate Professor, Macquarie UniversityBarbara Ryan, Senior Lecturer, University of Southern QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1900272022-09-20T20:14:02Z2022-09-20T20:14:02ZPakistan’s floods are a disaster – but they didn’t have to be<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483775/original/file-20220909-22-d38a7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Over 33 million people have been immediately affected by the flooding currently affecting Pakistan.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/pakistan-flood-stock-image-2022-city-2188233819">Graphic_Plus/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/pakistan/pakistan-floods-2022-humanity-first-situation-update-02-09-september-2022">devastating flooding</a> affecting Pakistan has killed over 1,300 people, damaged over 1.7 million homes, and is disrupting food production. Over 33 million people have been affected so far.</p>
<p>The destruction caused by these so-called “natural disasters” is often accepted as largely unavoidable and unpredictable. Climate change is also blamed for the alleged increased frequency of disasters.</p>
<p>However, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/260566a0">decades of research</a> explain that disasters are instead caused by <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Interpretations-of-Calamity-From-the-Viewpoint-of-Human-Ecology/Hewitt/p/book/9780367350796">sources of vulnerability</a> rather than by the climate or other environmental influences. Sources of vulnerability stem from a lack of power and resources to prepare for hazards. This includes poorly designed infrastructure along with social marginalisation and inequity, which restrict access to education and other key services.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/disaster-by-choice-9780198841357">disaster</a> is where the ability of people to cope with a hazard or its impacts by using their own resources is exceeded. Where resources are scarce or inadequate, a hazard often adversely affects people.</p>
<p>Consequently, framing a flood as a “natural disaster” deflects from the <a href="https://practicalactionpublishing.com/book/527/development-in-disaster-prone-places">reality</a> that vulnerability must exist before a crisis can emerge. The failure of governments to suitably prepare people for these hazards is a root cause of disaster. No matter the severity of the flooding event, <a href="https://www.routledge.com/At-Risk-Natural-Hazards-Peoples-Vulnerability-and-Disasters/Blaikie-Cannon-Davis-Wisner/p/book/9780415252164">a disaster can be avoided</a>.</p>
<h2>Vulnerability to floods remains high</h2>
<p>Pakistan has been subject <a href="https://doi.org/10.1525/aa.1967.69.1.02a00040">to regular flooding</a> throughout history. This year’s flood is the country’s sixth since 1950 to kill <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12084">over 1,000 people</a>. These disasters have encouraged numerous attempts at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.014">flood risk management</a>.</p>
<p>However, vulnerability towards flooding <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04336-7">remains high</a>. Many of the existing management measures may even have unintentionally worsened the effects of flooding. Poorly implemented <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07900620048590">urban development</a> throughout Pakistan has further contributed by exacerbating surface runoff.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02508069708686712">Structural measures</a> have dominated flood risk management in Pakistan. This is despite <a href="https://doi.org/10.3763/ehaz.1999.0109">research</a> suggesting that a reliance on them can worsen the impact of flooding.</p>
<p>People tend to view engineered structures as being <a href="https://search.informit.org/doi/abs/10.3316/ielapa.399490310988973">safe and protective</a>. Presuming the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1995.tb04025.x">infallibility</a> of these structures, they adjust their livelihoods and lifestyles accordingly. When a large flood occurs and these structures are breached, the impacts of flooding are amplified.</p>
<p>In 2005, the Shadi Kaur dam in the southern province of Balochistan broke during heavy rains, claiming the lives of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.014">over 135 people</a>. The current floods have <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=txHqL-71oQ0">damaged eight dams</a> in the same region.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dam preserving a reservoir in an arid, mountainous region." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483958/original/file-20220912-2404-so06fl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pakistan’s flood management strategy has focused on structural measures.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tarbela-dam-haripur-pakistan-1638076603">AhsanAli2020/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Pakistan’s focus on large scale infrastructure and response measures has led to a neglect for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02508069708686712">nonstructural risk reduction measures</a>. Many people therefore have few options to address their vulnerability.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.03.009">2016 study</a> concluded that people in Pakistan’s Khyber Pukhthunkhwa province had little awareness of flood risks and how to prepare. Education and employment rates in the region <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3293-0">remain low</a>. A literacy rate of <a href="https://kpbos.gov.pk/search/indicator-detail?id=1155">57%</a> greatly restricts access to information enabling risk reduction.</p>
<p>Many people <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/0033-0124.00318">continue to live on floodplains for agriculture</a> and as a result remain highly vulnerable. Despite investment in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2015.1075859">warning systems</a>, these serve little purpose if people are unaware of how to act or do not have the resources to do so.</p>
<p>Gender inequity remains <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijedudev.2016.08.001">prevalent across rural Pakistan</a>. This makes women <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2015.1075859">particularly vulnerable to flooding</a> because they are more likely to face the issues related to employment and education highlighted above.</p>
<p>The extensive damage during this year’s flooding is therefore unsurprising. Khyber Pukthunkhwa has been <a href="http://cms.ndma.gov.pk/storage/app/public/situation-reports/September2022/Puu9czsHcyHSF8izTFNZ.pdf">badly inundated</a>, forcing almost 70,000 people into temporary camps.</p>
<h2>Addressing Pakistan’s vulnerability</h2>
<p>Pakistan’s current <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.014">flood management strategies</a> do not adequately address vulnerability. While flood management is gradually <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-7600-0_3">shifting away from centralised and post-disaster measures</a>, progress has been slow.</p>
<p>Pakistan needs to adopt a proactive approach to swiftly address the underlying causes of vulnerability. People need better access to information about flood risks as well as the resources to help them prepare. In the future, disasters will persist unless profound changes are made. This must include steps to ensure effective governance, to encourage safe land use and to guarantee full access to education.</p>
<p>Human activities are <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">changing the climate</a> with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2020.1">clear consequences on the weather</a>. An extended period of <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/Scientific-report-Pakistan-floods.pdf">high rainfall</a> contributed to severe floods in Pakistan this year. However, the consequent catastrophe has been created by <a href="https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/defining-disaster-9781839100291.html">human actions</a>.</p>
<p>The resources and techniques exist to avoid flood disasters in Pakistan. However, these resources have not been distributed effectively. While climate change influences the frequency of flooding, it does not create flood disasters. Where vulnerable people are placed at risk, a catastrophe follows.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190027/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ilan Kelman receives funding from research councils in the UK and Norway, as well as from the Wellcome Trust and internal UCL funding. He is also Professor II at the University of Agder in Norway and co-directs the non-profit organisation Risk RED (Risk Reduction Education for Disasters).</span></em></p>Framing floods as ‘natural disasters’ deflects from the reality that vulnerability must exist before a crisis can emerge.Ilan Kelman, Professor of Disasters and Health, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1879612022-08-02T12:58:26Z2022-08-02T12:58:26ZWhat is a flash flood? A civil engineer explains<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536602/original/file-20230710-17-awc1e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C6%2C4460%2C2962&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pickup trucks creep through flood waters in Richland, Miss., following a morning of torrential rains in August 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/FlashFloodingMississippi/577c058ef3e845479fbeacf1b44625ca/photo">AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Flash flooding is a specific type of flooding that occurs in a short time frame after a precipitation event – <a href="https://www.weather.gov/mrx/flood_and_flash">generally less than six hours</a>. It often is caused by heavy or excessive rainfall and happens in areas near rivers or lakes, but it also can happen in places with no water bodies nearby.</p>
<p>Flash floods happen in both rural and urban areas, as in July 2023 in <a href="https://nypost.com/2023/07/09/water-rescues-underway-after-flash-flooding-wallops-parts-of-northeast-with-53-million-at-risk-through-monday/">New York state’s Hudson Valley</a>. When more rainfall lands in an area than the ground can absorb, or it falls in areas with a lot of impervious surfaces like concrete and asphalt that prevent the ground from absorbing the precipitation, the water has few places to go and can rise very quickly.</p>
<p>If an area has had recent rainfall, the soil may be saturated to capacity and unable to absorb any more water. Flooding can also occur after a drought, when soil is too dry and hardened to absorb the precipitation. Flash floods are <a href="https://www.blm.gov/flash-floods-tread-safely#:%7E:text=Flash%20floods%20can%20happen%20at,fast%2Dmoving%2C%20high%20water.">common in desert landscapes</a> after heavy rainfalls and in areas with shallow soil depths above solid bedrock that limits the soil’s ability to absorb rain.</p>
<p>Since water runs downhill, rainfall will seek the lowest point in a potential pathway. In urban areas, that’s often streets, parking lots and basements in low-lying zones. In rural areas with steep terrain, such as Appalachia, flash flooding can turn creeks and rivers into raging torrents. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GBPnZXIp94g?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Heavy rain generated flash flooding in the lower Hudson River Valley on July 9, 2023.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Flash floods often catch people by surprise, even though weather forecasters and emergency personnel try to warn and prepare communities. These events can <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n93QKa_LgUg">wash away cars</a> and even <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/29/us/kentucky-flooding-west-virginia">move buildings off their foundations</a>. </p>
<p>The best way to stay safe in a flash flood is to be aware of the danger and be ready to respond. Low-lying areas are at risk of flooding, whether it happens slowly or quickly and whether it’s an urban or rural setting. </p>
<p>It’s critical to know where to get up-to-date weather information for your area. And if you’re outdoors and encounter flooded spots, such as water-covered roadways, it is always safer to wait for the water to recede or turn back and find a safer route. Don’t attempt to cross it. Flood waters can be much faster and stronger than they appear – and therefore more dangerous.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1553467689993023488"}"></div></p>
<h2>Building for a wetter future</h2>
<p>Engineers design stormwater control systems to limit the damage that rainfall can do. Culverts transfer water and help <a href="https://civiltoday.com/construction/bridge/115-what-is-a-culvert-definition-materials-purpose-location-installation">control where it flows</a>, often directing it underneath roads and railways so that people and goods can continue to move safely. Stormwater containment ponds and <a href="https://www.asce.org/communities/institutes-and-technical-groups/environmental-and-water-resources-institute/design-of-stormwater-control-methods">detention basins</a> hold water for release at a later time after flooding has ceased. </p>
<p>Many cities also are using <a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/dep/downloads/pdf/water/stormwater/green-infrastructure/gi-annual-report-2020.pdf">green infrastructure systems</a>, such as rain gardens, green roofs and permeable pavement, to <a href="https://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/city-green-innovative-green-infrastructure-solutions-downtowns-and-infill-locations">reduce flash flooding</a>. <a href="https://www.epa.gov/wetlands/incorporating-wetland-restoration-and-protection-planning-documents">Restoring wetlands</a> along rivers and streams helps mitigate flooding as well. </p>
<p>Often the design standards and rules that we use to engineer these features are based on historic rainfall data for the location where we’re working. Engineers use that information to calculate how large a culvert, pond or other structure might need to be. We always build in some excess capacity to handle unusually large floods. </p>
<p>Now, however, many parts of the U.S. are experiencing more intense storm events that drop significant amounts of rainfall on an area in a very short time period. On July 9, 2023, West Point, New York, received more than 7.5 inches of rain in 6 hours – a scale that statistically would be expected to occur there <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/10/weather/northeast-storms-flooding-excessive-rainfall/index.html">once in 1,000 years</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1678232145393774593"}"></div></p>
<p>With climate change, we expect this trend to continue, which means that planners and engineers will need to reconsider how to design and manage infrastructure in the future. But it’s hard to predict how frequent or intense future storm events will be at a given location. And while it’s extremely likely that there will be more intense storm events based upon climate projections, designing and building for the worst-case situation is not cost effective when there are other competing demands for funding.</p>
<p>Right now, engineers, hydrologists and others are working to understand how best to plan for the future, including modeling flood events and development trends, so that we can help communities make themselves more resilient. That will require more, updated data and design standards that better adapt to anticipated future conditions.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to reflect flash flooding in New York in July 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187961/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Janey Camp is a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers Committee for America’s Infrastructure, the American Association of State Floodplain Managers and the Tennessee Association of State Floodplain Managers.</span></em></p>Flash flooding can happen in both urban and rural areas, with deadly results in either setting.Janey Camp, Research Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1789862022-03-10T04:33:24Z2022-03-10T04:33:24ZWhether people prepare for natural disasters depends on how the message is sent<p>Coastal areas are at the frontline of natural hazards – a fact now thrown into sharp relief as flooding devastates parts of southeastern Australia. </p>
<p>Providing information is one of the most important ways governments can help communities cope with these events. Such information aims to encourage people to make more informed decisions about the risks they face and act accordingly.</p>
<p>But as our <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/5/2904/html">new research</a> shows, simply providing information is not enough. We found when authorities deliver generic information about natural hazards via passive means, such as radio ads and brochures, most households did not change their behaviour.</p>
<p>To ensure our communities remain resilient in the face of worsening natural disasters, governments must find better ways to deliver important messages.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Ad reading 'be flood ready' with hand holding brochure" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451215/original/file-20220310-793-27gjo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451215/original/file-20220310-793-27gjo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451215/original/file-20220310-793-27gjo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451215/original/file-20220310-793-27gjo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451215/original/file-20220310-793-27gjo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451215/original/file-20220310-793-27gjo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451215/original/file-20220310-793-27gjo8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An ACT government ad promoting flood readiness. Sometimes, providing passive information is not enough.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ACT government</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Barriers to being prepared</h2>
<p>Numerous studies have suggested providing the public with information can overcome knowledge gaps, overcome inertia and prompt people to change their behaviour.</p>
<p>But even if a person is informed about the risks of natural hazards, other factors can influence their willingness to prepare for them.</p>
<p>For example, financial constraints might mean a person cannot stock up on food supplies before a storm hits. </p>
<p>Some people may simply not consider themselves to be at risk. Others may have competing priorities such as work or child care.</p>
<p>That means we need to better understand what types of information best lead to behaviour change and how barriers to action can be overcome.</p>
<h2>Does passive information work?</h2>
<p>Information can be categorised into three types: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>passive (seeks to reach a wide audience through, for example, online communication, pamphlets or radio ads)</p></li>
<li><p>interactive (information derived through interactions with other people)</p></li>
<li><p>experiential (information gleaned from personal life experiences).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Information provided by governments to coastal households is predominantly passive.
For example, households are often encouraged to access information on natural hazards such as <a href="https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/flood-resources/before-a-flood/know-your-risk/">floods</a>, and how to <a href="https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/how-households-can-adapt">prepare</a> for climate change. </p>
<p>We set out to test the effectiveness of this passive approach to delivering information.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/weather-forecasts-wont-save-us-we-must-pre-empt-monster-floods-years-before-they-hit-178767">Weather forecasts won't save us – we must pre-empt monster floods years before they hit</a>
</strong>
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<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Our study focused on two Australian coastal communities: Mandurah in Western Australia and Moreton Bay in Queensland. </p>
<p>We surveyed households and conducted interviews with locals. We explored the types of information that shape responses to three hazard scenarios: a heatwave, a severe storm and sea-level rise. </p>
<p>People who wanted more information about their exposure to future climate risks were more likely to:</p>
<ul>
<li>perceive their local area as vulnerable to environmental hazards</li>
<li>consider local environmental health important to their households’ wellbeing. </li>
</ul>
<p>Likewise, people who wanted information on preparing for climate hazards believed:</p>
<ul>
<li>households were very capable of managing the impacts</li>
<li>their local council was capable of preventing harm.</li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="pool collapsed onto beach after storm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450587/original/file-20220308-85823-1xwtzfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450587/original/file-20220308-85823-1xwtzfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450587/original/file-20220308-85823-1xwtzfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450587/original/file-20220308-85823-1xwtzfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450587/original/file-20220308-85823-1xwtzfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450587/original/file-20220308-85823-1xwtzfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450587/original/file-20220308-85823-1xwtzfa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to storms and other extreme weather.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Moir/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, passive information rarely informed a person’s response to natural hazards. Instead, people tended to believe in the power of “common sense”, especially when dealing with short-term impacts of hazards.</p>
<p>For example, one interviewee said no response to a heatwave was required, but “if you do have to go out you don’t go out for very long”.</p>
<p>Household action was also informed by past experience. One Mandurah resident told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We did have a scenario here […] we had a pretty severe storm and were out of power. So I have lots of candles and you just get by.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Conversely, a Moreton Bay resident drew on their past exposure to a storm to justify the limited need for action:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The area has never been affected by those sort of floods […] it hasn’t stopped us from doing the day-to-day things like getting kids to school.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But as extreme weather worsens under climate change, basing decisions on past experiences may not be sufficient.</p>
<p>When it came to responding to hazards, most people adopted short-term coping strategies, such as securing loose items in their yard. </p>
<p>Other more proactive actions, such as installing window protection, were limited. There was also a lack of collective actions such as joining local recovery or conservation efforts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-floods-have-killed-at-least-21-australians-adapting-to-a-harsher-climate-is-now-a-life-or-death-matter-178761">The floods have killed at least 21 Australians. Adapting to a harsher climate is now a life-or-death matter</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="crowded beach on hot day" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451218/original/file-20220310-23-166zzmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451218/original/file-20220310-23-166zzmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451218/original/file-20220310-23-166zzmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451218/original/file-20220310-23-166zzmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451218/original/file-20220310-23-166zzmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451218/original/file-20220310-23-166zzmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451218/original/file-20220310-23-166zzmo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Respondents favoured a common sense approach to natural hazards, such as not staying outside for long periods during heatwaves.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Where to from here?</h2>
<p>Prior exposure to a climate hazard appears to drive some people to adapt. But most households generally employ coping strategies, informed by perceptions of common sense. </p>
<p>So what type of information best promotes the transition from short-term coping with natural hazards to longer-term adaptation?</p>
<p>The answer may lie in promoting adaptation well before natural disasters hit as a “common sense” response to the climate threat.</p>
<p>Passive information rarely contains targeted information that can capture the interest of all households. So there’s value in moving beyond this approach.</p>
<p>Two-way communication tools such as workshops, demonstrations, community events and harnessing opinion leaders offer promise. They enable collective discussion where participants can share experiences, beliefs and values, building trust and collaboration. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/under-resourced-and-undermined-as-floods-hit-south-west-sydney-our-research-shows-councils-arent-prepared-178293">Under-resourced and undermined: as floods hit south-west Sydney, our research shows councils aren't prepared</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Some households value passive information. But if resilience to climate hazards is indeed the objective, communication promoting household response must change.</p>
<p>Whether information resonates with a household depends on various factors, including their capacity to respond. So improving people’s confidence in their capability to act may also trigger better adaptation.</p>
<p>But households should not be seen solely as individual units acting to reduce their personal risk. They are also part of a broader system and can contribute to social change through collective action.</p>
<p>This might include collectively lobbying politicians, sharing experiences and strategies, and helping each other during times of crisis.</p>
<p>As climate change threatens to bring more severe and frequent natural disasters, more research is needed into information that encourages people to cope and adapt – both individually and together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178986/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carmen Elrick-Barr acknowledges support from Australian Government through the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Projects Funding Scheme (Projects FT180100652 and DP1093583). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Smith acknowledges support from the Australian Research Council's Discovery Projects Funding Scheme (Projects FT180100652 and DP1093583). The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and are not necessarily those of the University of the Sunshine Coast, the Australian Research Council, or the Australian Government.
</span></em></p>Simply providing passive information is not enough. Governments must find better ways to deliver important messages about natural hazards.Carmen Elrick-Barr, Research Fellow, University of the Sunshine CoastTim Smith, Professor and ARC Future Fellow, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1787672022-03-09T19:08:19Z2022-03-09T19:08:19ZWeather forecasts won’t save us – we must pre-empt monster floods years before they hit<p>Most people’s lives are largely removed from nature. We spend our days in temperature-controlled rooms, immersed in virtual environments. Our cars transport us from underground car parks to our garages in comfort, no matter what the outside conditions. </p>
<p>And when a natural hazard hits, we often rely on technology-driven weather forecasts to understand and avoid the risks.</p>
<p>But now, Southeast Queensland and parts of New South Wales are inundated yet again. Clearly, short-term weather forecasts alone are not enough to protect communities in times like these.</p>
<p>Withstanding natural disasters requires recognising the threat earlier, and enacting the systemic change needed to survive. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="home with flood debris in front" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450855/original/file-20220309-25-1b33oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450855/original/file-20220309-25-1b33oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450855/original/file-20220309-25-1b33oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450855/original/file-20220309-25-1b33oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450855/original/file-20220309-25-1b33oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450855/original/file-20220309-25-1b33oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450855/original/file-20220309-25-1b33oq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Withstanding natural disasters requires recognising the threat earlier.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jason O'Brien/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Living with nature</h2>
<p>The public demands accurate weather forecasts. People want to know how the weather will affect their family, work and social schedules so they can minimise the disruptions.</p>
<p>The technology used to determine future weather conditions is continually being refined. Now, sophisticated computer models churn out 24/7 forecasts and radars provide real-time images of where rain is falling.</p>
<p>But projecting the arrival and behaviour of extreme weather remains challenging.</p>
<p>These events, such as intense rain, can develop and intensify within hours. Short-term forecasts often change throughout the day as conditions develop.</p>
<p>The recent heavy rain and flooding shows how we’re pushing the limits of this technology. It has also exposed vulnerabilities in our collective ability to apply the information generated. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-floods-have-killed-at-least-21-australians-adapting-to-a-harsher-climate-is-now-a-life-or-death-matter-178761">The floods have killed at least 21 Australians. Adapting to a harsher climate is now a life-or-death matter</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman in rainy street with umbrella" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450857/original/file-20220309-15-1bu66qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450857/original/file-20220309-15-1bu66qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450857/original/file-20220309-15-1bu66qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450857/original/file-20220309-15-1bu66qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450857/original/file-20220309-15-1bu66qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450857/original/file-20220309-15-1bu66qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450857/original/file-20220309-15-1bu66qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intense rain can develop within hours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Damian Shaw/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Advancing technologies</h2>
<p>Australia has the <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1459/how-does-a-weather-radar-work/">fourth-largest</a> weather radar network in the world.</p>
<p>Radars work by emitting electromagnetic waves. When the waves hit an object, such as a water in the atmosphere, the signal bounces back to the radar. This information is then converted into data on a map that can be viewed by the public.</p>
<p>Rain radars tell us where rain is falling, and how heavily. Experts can use this information to infer what the rain might do next. But weather forecasting is not an exact science and, as with any technology, there’s always room for improvement. </p>
<p>For example, changes to coastal temperatures and humidity over small areas, in a short period, can <a href="https://eos.org/science-updates/challenges-and-opportunities-in-coastal-prediction">thwart a forecast’s accuracy</a>.</p>
<p>Forecasters also use weather models – computers that simulate conditions in the atmosphere, ocean, and above land and apply mathematical equations to predict future weather.</p>
<p>Low pressure systems and especially east coast and tropical lows, which can lead to storms, are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-04/how-to-interpret-the-bureau-of-meteorology-s-rain-forecast/100580448">harder to predict</a> than high pressure systems which tend to bring calm conditions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="weather radar image of east coast" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450856/original/file-20220309-17-ob3z0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450856/original/file-20220309-17-ob3z0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450856/original/file-20220309-17-ob3z0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450856/original/file-20220309-17-ob3z0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450856/original/file-20220309-17-ob3z0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450856/original/file-20220309-17-ob3z0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450856/original/file-20220309-17-ob3z0f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=472&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rain radars tell us where rain is falling and how heavily.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BOM</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/all-hail-new-weather-radar-technology-which-can-spot-hailstones-lurking-in-thunderstorms-86856">All hail new weather radar technology, which can spot hailstones lurking in thunderstorms</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Wired to predict</h2>
<p>There is widespread misunderstanding of what rain radars actually tell us. They show what is happening now, and what has just occurred. They do not predict future conditions. </p>
<p>But the human brains is <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-youre-seeing-right-now-is-the-past-so-your-brain-is-predicting-the-present-131913">wired</a> to predict. So people sometimes make assumptions about the trajectory and future intensity of storm cells they see in radar images. </p>
<p>The media can also undermine the credibility of the forecasting system. News reporting of weather events can sometimes be over-dramatised. And the media does not always update its coverage of extreme weather forecasts – for example, not telling the public when a weather warning has been downgraded. </p>
<h2>Just-in-time flood response is risky</h2>
<p>We can’t directly stop natural hazards occurring. But we can try to make communities better able to withstand them.</p>
<p>Relying on just-in-time weather information is a poor substitute for better planning and preparedness.</p>
<p>For months, we’ve known this summer would be wet. But sadly, many in the community did not act on these projections. </p>
<p>A La Niña event occurred in the summer of 2020-21 and brought above-average rain and <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/floods-in-australia-among-most-expensive-climate-events-of-2021-report-finds/trmr6gvww">widespread floods</a>. As others <a href="https://theconversation.com/back-so-soon-la-nina-heres-why-were-copping-two-soggy-summers-in-a-row-173684">have noted</a>, since 1958 about half of La Niña events have reoccurred the following year.</p>
<p>So the odds were already in favour of the 2021-22 summer also being wet. And the second La Niña was <a href="https://theconversation.com/back-so-soon-la-nina-heres-why-were-copping-two-soggy-summers-in-a-row-173684">confirmed</a> in November. </p>
<p>But by and large, these indications were not acted upon. </p>
<p>For example, the Queensland government delivers a generic advertising campaign for storm awareness, but it’s not tailored to specific seasonal conditions or <a href="https://www.qbcc.qld.gov.au/get-ready-storm-season">impending events</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/under-resourced-and-undermined-as-floods-hit-south-west-sydney-our-research-shows-councils-arent-prepared-178293">Under-resourced and undermined: as floods hit south-west Sydney, our research shows councils aren't prepared</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-floods-have-killed-at-least-21-australians-adapting-to-a-harsher-climate-is-now-a-life-or-death-matter-178761">reported</a> in The Conversation this week, Australia has a poor record on implementing plans for natural disaster risk reduction. This includes the National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy, released late last year, which contains no new funding and little detail.</p>
<p>At a government agency level, better flood preparedness would involve, among other things, overhauling planning laws to ensure the built environment is resilient to natural hazards.</p>
<p>It would also involve ensuring local councils are <a href="https://theconversation.com/under-resourced-and-undermined-as-floods-hit-south-west-sydney-our-research-shows-councils-arent-prepared-178293">properly resourced</a> to help residents on the ground.</p>
<p>Individuals can also take action to minimise flood damage to their property.</p>
<p>I spent last week cleaning mud from the basement of a large apartment block in Brisbane. The damage showed very clearly which residents had moved or protected valuables in basement areas well in advance of the water, and which had not.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="people scrub walls and floors" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450859/original/file-20220309-22-1uoy8sh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450859/original/file-20220309-22-1uoy8sh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450859/original/file-20220309-22-1uoy8sh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450859/original/file-20220309-22-1uoy8sh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450859/original/file-20220309-22-1uoy8sh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450859/original/file-20220309-22-1uoy8sh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450859/original/file-20220309-22-1uoy8sh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During the flood clean up, it can become clear who was prepared and who was not.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jono Searle</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Back to the future</h2>
<p>The flooding in Queensland comes just a decade or so after the devastating Brisbane floods. </p>
<p>The new disaster is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-07/south-east-queensland-flood-disaster-damage-bill-budget/100888958">expected</a> to cost the state’s economy up to A$2.5 billion. Insurance claims on damaged homes and businesses will be close to $1 billion.</p>
<p>Flooding in future is inevitable, especially under climate change which will likely bring more frequent and severe bursts of rain. </p>
<p>Relying on short-term weather forecasts to prepare for such events is deeply unwise. Becoming resilient to natural disasters means preparing weeks, months and years in advance.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/under-resourced-and-undermined-as-floods-hit-south-west-sydney-our-research-shows-councils-arent-prepared-178293">Under-resourced and undermined: as floods hit south-west Sydney, our research shows councils aren't prepared</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178767/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Gibbs is a Non-Executive Director of the Gold Coast Waterways Authority, Green Cross Australia, the Moreton Bay Foundation Foundation and Reef Check Australia</span></em></p>Parts of southeast Australia are inundated yet again. Clearly, short-term weather forecasts are not enough to protect communities in times like these.Mark Gibbs, Leader of the Knowledge to Innovation team, Institute for Future Environments and Science and Engineering Faculty, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1757212022-01-27T13:09:07Z2022-01-27T13:09:07ZFour things tsunami-vulnerable countries must do to prepare for the next disaster<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442736/original/file-20220126-21-v9wr7e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5863%2C3902&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Michael Vi / shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The eruption of an underwater volcano and subsequent tsunami that hit Tonga on January 16, was one of the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-60106981">most violent natural disasters</a> in decades. While this event had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tonga-struggles-with-ash-psychological-trauma-after-eruption-tsunami-2022-01-23/">catastrophic consequences</a>, such incidents are relatively common as volcanoes are naturally unstable, unpredictable and exist throughout the world.</p>
<p>I have spent most of my career conducting post-disaster field research, improving coastal defences and supporting people to become more resilient to tsunamis and less anxious about the risk. The challenge facing countries in these naturally vulnerable parts of the world is to adapt and educate their citizens to take their own safety actions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing areas of the world at risk from tsunamis." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442734/original/file-20220126-13-1wfggn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sketch of global tsunami hazard (as of May 2009).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://reliefweb.int/map/world/world-sketch-global-tsunami-hazard-may-2009">UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here I have outlined four things that vulnerable countries must urgently do to mitigate the consequences of tsunamis:</p>
<h2>1. Educate people to be more resilient</h2>
<p>Education is one of the most effective defences. Regardless of the size of the wave or strength of seawalls, people are much more likely to survive a tsunami if they know exactly how to react once an alert is triggered. Vulnerable countries must therefore urgently create an educated, close-knit community that is aware that they are exposed to the risk and accept it as an aspect of their life and culture.</p>
<p>I conducted focus group meetings with people, businesses and communities in Indonesia <a href="https://theconversation.com/krakatoa-is-still-active-and-we-are-not-ready-for-the-tsunamis-another-eruption-would-generate-147250">after the Anak Krakatoa tsunami in 2018</a>. In these groups, we established designated high ground areas and clear signage directing people to these safe zones. Evacuation events, such as mock tsunami drills, must be practised regularly so that people are familiar with safe areas and know where to go in the instance of a real tsunami.</p>
<p>In Tonga specifically, where a third of the population is under the age of 15, tsunami safety must be taught at both primary and secondary school levels. Familiarising their young population with tsunamis, as well as other natural hazards such as <a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/disasterfacts.pdf">cyclones and earthquakes</a>, will create a more resilient and less anxious adult population.</p>
<h2>2. Create effective early warning systems</h2>
<p>A decrease in ocean water surface levels is a clear sign that a tsunami is about to hit. Vulnerable countries must create early warning systems using satellites, drones and tide gauges to measure the vertical rise or fall of water to identify tsunamis before they happen. </p>
<p>In light of the tsunami in Tonga, it would also help to place equipment such as <a href="https://www.whoi.edu/what-we-do/explore/instruments/instruments-sensors-samplers/conductivity-temperature-depth-ctd-sensors/">conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD)</a> instruments, seismometers and thermal cameras near underwater volcanoes, while also observing the waters above with satellites. Buoys that measure the height and direction of waves can also be placed out at sea. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A yellow buoy in the ocean" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442939/original/file-20220127-28-ypjzpu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tsunami detection buoy off the coast of Thailand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Mariner 4291 / shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When water levels are triggered, tsunami alert messages are sent out, giving people enough time to escape the impact zones. I experienced this myself while conducting fieldwork in a small town on the southern coast of Japan in 2018. There was <a href="https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20181102/p2a/00m/0na/018000c">an earthquake</a> during my stay and before the ground had even stopped shaking my colleague received a text alert from the regional government with instructions. I grabbed my passport and prepared to go towards a nearby hill if he received a follow up “red alert” text – fortunately, that particular earthquake did not cause a tsunami, and we were able to stay where we were.</p>
<h2>3. Establish a strong coastal defence scheme</h2>
<p>Tsunami-vulnerable countries must urgently create strong coastal defence schemes of offshore breakwaters, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2018/mar/09/after-the-tsunami-japan-sea-walls-in-pictures">tsunami walls</a> and flood levees. Tsunami waves hit hard, so ideally these foundations will be made of reinforced concrete to avoid erosion. Natural protections like <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/news/2006/12/15/living-coral-reefs-provide-better-protection-tsunami-waves">coral reefs</a> could be strengthened with nature-based solutions such as rock armour or heavy sandbags, which will lower the cost for developing countries.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Man walks along concrete wall" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=290&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/442947/original/file-20220127-4868-6qoq3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A new coastal dyke in the city of Sendai, Japan, built after the 2011 tsunami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ravindra Jayaratne</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Critical infrastructure like power plants, densely populated communities and tourist hotspots must be built on higher ground, where possible. A good example of this comes from Miyagi and Iwate prefectures, Japan, which were badly hit by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami (the one which caused a nuclear disaster in neighbouring Fukushima). Some towns were <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japan-tsunami-2011-fukushima-rebuilt-city-rikuzen-takata-residents-still-scared/">rebuilt on elevated ground</a> that had been filled in with compacted soil. </p>
<p>If space is available, coastal forests with tall trees could be planted between communities and the beach to <a href="https://www.naturebasedsolutionsinitiative.org/publications/vegetation-bioshields-for-tsunami-mitigation-review-of-effectiveness-limitations-construction-and-sustainable-management/">act as a buffer zone</a>, limiting the impact of waves and reducing flooding, while also improving the local ecosystem. </p>
<p>These defences may damage the tourist-friendly aesthetic of white sandy beaches, but they could save lives.</p>
<h2>4. Form a regional approach to tsunamis</h2>
<p>The effects of the underwater volcano eruption and tsunami in Tonga were felt around the Pacific in Australia, New Zealand, Japan and America. These vulnerable countries must implement a regional approach to defending and responding to tsunamis.</p>
<p>Aid must be given before tsunamis hit, not just after. This can be done through sharing data, expertise, research facilities and equipment. It is vitally important that this information is specifically given to developing countries to help strengthen their own defences.</p>
<p>The underwater volcano near Tonga is active. And even if the recent eruption was a one in 1,000 year event, there is still a strong chance that it will erupt again since geological deposits show that major eruptions like this one tend to involve a <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-the-tonga-eruption-was-so-violent-and-what-to-expect-next/">series of many individual explosive events</a>. </p>
<p>Countries that are threatened by tsunamis can’t prevent these natural disasters from happening, but they can adapt to be better prepared for when they do. Foreign aid will be vital for Tonga to recover from this horrific incident. However, education and collaboration will be its most important defence in the longer term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175721/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ravindra Jayaratne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We can’t prevent natural disasters from happening, but we can be better prepared for when they do.Ravindra Jayaratne, Reader in Coastal Engineering, University of East LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1746852022-01-20T13:45:43Z2022-01-20T13:45:43ZShakeAlert earthquake warnings can give people time to protect themselves – but so far, few have actually done so<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441762/original/file-20220120-9372-1yk59g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=122%2C644%2C3143%2C2029&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An app can give you a few seconds of warning before an earthquake strikes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-nations-first-statewide-earthquake-early-warning-system-news-photo/1176500973?adppopup=true">Yichuan Cao/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>My Facebook feed exploded shortly after noon on Dec. 20, 2021, with news from friends and family in northern California: A “big one!” The 6.2 magnitude earthquake they’d just experienced had its <a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ew1640031020/executive">epicenter on the coast near Petrolia</a>.</p>
<p>Yet many social media posts weren’t focused on the earthquake itself, but rather the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/21/california-earthquake-early-warning-system">alert</a> sent to cellphones seconds before – or, for some, just as – major shaking began.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441349/original/file-20220118-19-ygofp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="screenshot of Facebook post about receiving an alert" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441349/original/file-20220118-19-ygofp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441349/original/file-20220118-19-ygofp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441349/original/file-20220118-19-ygofp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441349/original/file-20220118-19-ygofp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441349/original/file-20220118-19-ygofp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441349/original/file-20220118-19-ygofp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441349/original/file-20220118-19-ygofp9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lots of people justifiably marveled at the alert, but few seem to have taken advantage of it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook screenshot via Dare Baldwin</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/early-warningshakealertr">The ShakeAlert system</a> is a remarkable technology, years in the making. It has the potential to save tens of thousands of lives in areas where high-magnitude earthquakes occur by providing a few seconds’ warning – enough time for people to take basic safety precautions. Marvelous as it is, though, ShakeAlert saves lives only if people understand what to do when they receive such an alert – and do it.</p>
<p>I’m part of an interdisciplinary group that includes <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pS-idGwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">psychologists like me</a> and other social scientists, natural hazards experts, seismologists, geophysicists and communication and education specialists whose goal is to design <a href="https://doi.org/10.1190/geo2021-0222.1">earthquake preparedness and response systems that optimize safe outcomes</a>. Some of us are working together to analyze video footage of various earthquakes posted to social media sites, such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.</p>
<p>Videos during the Petrolia-centered earthquake are the first we’ve seen of what people do – or don’t do – when they receive a ShakeAlert-powered alert. The footage suggests we have more work to do.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441568/original/file-20220119-21-1e940uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="still of surveillance footage from a hotel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441568/original/file-20220119-21-1e940uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441568/original/file-20220119-21-1e940uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441568/original/file-20220119-21-1e940uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441568/original/file-20220119-21-1e940uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441568/original/file-20220119-21-1e940uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441568/original/file-20220119-21-1e940uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441568/original/file-20220119-21-1e940uy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">CCTV footage, like this still from video taken in Jakarta, Indonesia, during the 2004 earthquake, reveals how people really respond during shaking.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/this-video-grab-from-metro-tv-in-jakarta-shows-a-hotel-cctv-news-photo/51893889">AFP/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Detection and warning of imminent earthquakes</h2>
<p>ShakeAlert depends on a massive network of seismic detectors distributed around the West Coast that pick up initial earthquake shaking.</p>
<p>For people near the epicenter, the time it takes to process the data and send an alert may mean it arrives just as, or possibly even seconds after, major shaking begins. Even this roughly simultaneous notice is valuable, as it helps people realize what is happening, which often isn’t obvious.</p>
<p>For those further away from a quake’s epicenter, an alert may arrive seconds, or even tens of seconds, before strong shaking. That’s enough time to automatically shut down or alter the operations of key systems – for example, to slow or stop trains, control equipment involved in delicate medical procedures, or electrical grids. It’s also enough time to prepare mentally, as well as to take potentially life-saving protective action.</p>
<p>To maximize your chances of <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-should-i-do-during-earthquake">coming out of a major earthquake alive and intact</a>, most experts recommend in most cases – for California, Oregon and Washington – that you “Drop, Cover, and Hold On,” or DCHO for short. The alert message appearing on your cellphone reminds you what to do.</p>
<p>ShakeAlert is the only earthquake early warning system for the public in the U.S. It <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2021/02/earthquake-warning-system-shakealert-coming-to-oregon-in-march.html">went live in Oregon in March 2021</a>, and in May it expanded to the entire U.S. West Coast. The system sends alerts via <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-do-i-sign-shakealertr-earthquake-early-warning-system">a group of delivery partners</a>. For instance, Google Android phones display alerts via their operating system. Depending where people live, they can install alert apps – MyShake, QuakeAlert USA or San Diego Emergency ShakeReadySD – to their smartphone. And the Federal Emergency Management Agency system that sends emergency messages like Amber Alerts also issues earthquake warnings.</p>
<p>Considerable prior <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101713">research helped to shape the content</a> conveyed in ShakeAlert-powered alerts, as well as key messaging that occurs right after alerts. Getting all of this right is crucial, and it’s still a work in progress.</p>
<h2>What people do before and during quakes</h2>
<p>Until recently, researchers have had to rely primarily on after-the-fact interviews or “<a href="https://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/dyfi/">Did You Feel It?</a>” post-earthquake surveys to learn what people remembered doing during an earthquake.</p>
<p>In the last several years, closed-circuit TV footage has started to reveal how people really respond to high-intensity shaking. These recordings aren’t muddled by individuals’ understandably imperfect memories of a chaotic and stressful event. Though people frequently report having taken protective actions such as “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” during an earthquake, analyses of CCTV footage to date show that DCHO is, as yet, actually quite rare.</p>
<p>There are a few encouraging exceptions, though. For instance, CCTV footage from the 2018 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Anchorage, Alaska, shows a teacher and students in <a href="https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/anchorage/2018/12/04/this-classroom-footage-captures-anchorage-students-reacting-perfectly-to-the-earthquake/">one middle-school classroom collectively enacting DCHO</a> immediately and flawlessly.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441528/original/file-20220119-23-3ltaat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="seated person holds up cell phone to show a person who looks shocked" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441528/original/file-20220119-23-3ltaat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/441528/original/file-20220119-23-3ltaat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441528/original/file-20220119-23-3ltaat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441528/original/file-20220119-23-3ltaat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441528/original/file-20220119-23-3ltaat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441528/original/file-20220119-23-3ltaat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/441528/original/file-20220119-23-3ltaat.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A still from CCTV footage just before the Petrolia earthquake seems to depict people astonished by the ShakeAlert warning, but taking no action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Screen grab from Earth Quake Video World</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Petrolia earthquake videos offer the first chance to see if ShakeAlert-powered messages change how people behave before, during and even after a major earthquake. So far, in the footage we’ve seen, people noticed the alert yet did nothing relevant to protecting themselves.</p>
<p>In fact, no one in any of these videos from Dec. 20 undertook “Drop, Cover, and Hold On” precautions, regardless of whether, or when, they received an alert. Many people just stayed where they were, showed the alert on their phones to others and excitedly watched as objects swayed and crashed to the floor.</p>
<h2>Frozen in the face of an emergency</h2>
<p>My colleagues and I are hoping that a better understanding of what people actually do during major earth shaking will suggest ways to tweak the alerts so they inspire people to take safer actions. It’s a big challenge because doing nothing when an earthquake begins appears to be very common.</p>
<p>A 2021 survey conducted in both Seattle and Sendai, Japan, found that stopping and staying put was the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102624">dominant response to major earth shaking</a>, even though it puts people at risk of serious injury from falling or being hit by falling objects. There are several likely reasons.</p>
<p>A major earthquake is a novel experience for many people, and often they simply may not know what to do. In addition, there are potential barriers to carrying out “Drop, Cover, and Hold On.” Age, disability and high body mass can make dropping to the floor and getting under cover problematic, though there are <a href="https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212420918313888-gr1_lrg.jpg">inclusive ways to DCHO</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Even when people do know what to do in an emergency, evidence suggests they may feel self-conscious or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101150">embarrassed about taking action</a>. Classic social science research points to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(72)90069-8">how contagious it can be</a>, in the face of a variety of emergencies, to do nothing, creating cascading paralysis for everyone present.</p>
<p>By dropping, covering and holding on right when you receive an alert, you might unleash similar protective action in others nearby, possibly saving them, as well as yourself, from injury or death. Seen that way, doing DCHO when you receive an alert – despite the potential for embarrassment – is actually a form of everyday heroism.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/174685/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dare A. Baldwin, Ph.D., is a Full Professor at the University of Oregon; her research at the University of Oregon is supported in part by the United States Geological Survey.</span></em></p>When researchers look at CCTV footage of how people really react during earthquakes – as opposed to what they report after the fact – it looks like alerts aren’t yet inspiring protective action.Dare A. Baldwin, Full Professor, Psychology and Clark Honors College, University of OregonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1715392021-11-12T13:30:01Z2021-11-12T13:30:01ZCOP26: why politicians have little incentive to prepare for future climate change disasters<p>The impact of climate change and how to respond to it is the defining political debate of our era. There are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025739">two forms</a> this response can take – reacting to environmental disasters by providing financial and technical assistance to affected areas, or adapting to the effects of global heating by preparing for future disasters. </p>
<p>Adaptation efforts – building flood protections, early warning systems and investing in resilient infrastructure – are increasingly recognised as important tools in limiting the consequences of climate change. This was a <a href="https://ukcop26.org/the-uk-cop26-presidency-glasgow-imperative-closing-the-adaptation-gap-and-responding-to-climate-impacts/">key focus of the UK’s COP26 presidency goals</a> at the UN climate summit, which highlighted closing the “adaptation gap” and building resilience to climate change globally.</p>
<p>Despite this, there are more political rewards for devoting attention and resources to disaster relief, rather than disaster preparedness. This means politicians have little incentive to introduce large-scale investment in climate change adaptation. </p>
<p>Research finds that the public is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990104">more supportive</a> of policies that react to adverse climate events, rather than those that proactively minimise the potential for damage (like flood defences). Reacting to a disaster is clearer and more visible to voters than investing in disaster preparedness. </p>
<p>These political incentives are clearly demonstrated in US presidential elections. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990104">Research examining</a> elections from 1988-2004 found that incumbent politicians received higher vote shares when they prioritised disaster relief spending while in office, compared to equivalent spending on disaster preparedness. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-021-09738-2">Research published this year</a> found that the key to breaking this cycle is helping the public better understand the economic benefits of disaster preparedness. While voters who have experienced disasters are not more willing to invest in preparedness, communicating information about the long-term benefits of this investment can increase public support. </p>
<h2>The global stage</h2>
<p>Action on climate adaptation also has a chequered history at the international level. It has long been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/445597a">considered a taboo</a> due to concerns it would distract from efforts to mitigate climate change. Adaptation has only recently started to receive significant <a href="https://sciencebusiness.net/climate-news/news/cop26-canada-and-uk-launch-new-research-alliance-climate-adaptation">attention</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-commits-new-support-to-african-led-projects-to-protect-vulnerable-communities-at-the-frontline-of-climate-change">pledges</a> from developed countries. </p>
<p>These nations have the <a href="https://unctad.org/news/scaling-climate-adaptation-finance-must-be-table-un-cop26">economic and technical resources</a> to fund the scale of adaptation required in developing countries. But this investment has been limited by the problem of defining <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/07/02/row-erupts-green-climate-fund-defines-climate-adaptation/">what exactly constitutes adaptation.</a>. </p>
<p>There is often a lack of clarity for international bodies in knowing whether projects actually offer protection from climate disasters, or are instead broadly focused on economic development. </p>
<p>The UN’s Green Climate Fund recently chose <a href="https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/07/02/row-erupts-green-climate-fund-defines-climate-adaptation/">not to submit for approval</a> a project focusing on building resilience to hydro-meterological hazards in Timor-Leste over these exact concerns. </p>
<p>Global investment in adaptation does not have the same immediacy as disaster relief. This is compounded by the fact that those most responsible for global adaptation funding -– the advanced economies -– are less affected by the immediate consequences of climate change.</p>
<h2>Corruption v climate</h2>
<p>The current approach to adaptation projects also draws attention to corruption in developing countries. Often referred to as the “C-word”, discussion of corruption has been avoided by policymakers and non-governmental organisations in order to avoid weakening political support for assistance.</p>
<p><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/67684/public-attitudes-april10.pdf">A 2010 study</a> by the UK government found that 57% of the British public considered it pointless to donate aid to poorer countries, due to government corruption in recipient countries. As a result, financing climate adaptation is likely hampered by public distrust in projects without clear immediate outcomes, compared to the highly visible response to disaster events.</p>
<p>Governments of wealthier donor countries must more clearly identify both the economic and humanitarian benefits of investing in adaptation for developing countries. This will likely increase support for these investments. This has limitations, as citizens in developed countries may <a href="https://bfpg.co.uk/2021/03/public-opinion-foreign-aid/">be wary of efforts</a> to boost growth abroad at the expense of domestic growth. </p>
<p>At the international level, interpersonal connections and experience have been shown to <a href="https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=13957">increase humanitarian aid flows.</a>.</p>
<p>Sadly, the increasing number of climate-related disasters such as <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/23/europe/germany-floods-belgium-climate-change-intl/index.html">flooding</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/30/california-wildfires-north-complex-record">wildfires</a> in economically developed countries may be the key to support for necessary adaptation efforts across borders.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171539/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam F. Beiser-McGrath does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politicians have more incentive to react to current climate disasters, but more investment is needed in preparing for future problems.Liam F. Beiser-McGrath, Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Politics and Director of the PECC Lab, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1714232021-11-08T14:56:41Z2021-11-08T14:56:41ZIf we don’t learn from past climate disasters, they will claim more lives in the future<p>A central focus of discussions at the ongoing UN climate summit <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a> in Glasgow is how to adapt to a warming world, including how to prevent climate hazards from becoming disasters.</p>
<p>A hazard turns into a disaster when it begins causing harm to human lives. That’s why, to prevent climate-related disasters, we must anticipate and adapt to future hazards to keep people safe. This will require enormous amounts of money and years of careful planning – as well as, crucially, learning from past mistakes.</p>
<p>This July, in the German states of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia, <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/heavy-rainfall-which-led-to-severe-flooding-in-western-europe-made-more-likely-by-climate-change/">devastating floods</a> caused by torrential rains killed more than 180 people and destroyed hundreds of homes and buildings. Houses were ripped from their foundations with their occupants still inside. Trees and caravans were tossed in raging flood waters. Some rivers rose nine metres (twice the height of a double-decker bus) above their usual levels. </p>
<p>One woman, trapped on the first floor of her home with her two young children before later being rescued, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m00117h1/panorama-wild-weather-our-world-under-threat">was told</a> by her daughter: “I know we’ll die. But please don’t be sad. We will die together.” Months later, teams of unpaid volunteers continue to drain waterlogged cellars, bulldoze wreckage, and feed families who are still homeless. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Debris piled by a road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=351&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430800/original/file-20211108-25-ow3j31.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cleaning efforts take place after the July floods in Erftstadt-Blessem, Germany.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2021-07_Blessem_after_flood_01.jpg">Achim Raschka/Wikimedia</a></span>
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<p>In the immediate aftermath of the floods, it was clear that something had gone badly wrong for one of the world’s richest countries to experience this scale of death and destruction. Some people – <a href="https://theconversation.com/europes-catastrophic-flooding-was-forecast-well-in-advance-what-went-so-wrong-164818">the authors included</a> – were quick to criticise apparent failures in local and national flood preparedness systems.</p>
<p>These systems are essentially long, complex chains of decision-making that involve weather forecasters, politicians and emergency services. In North Rhine-Westphalia, a <a href="https://www.landtag.nrw.de/home/aktuelles/meldungsarchiv/meldungen-berichte-und-informati/meldungen-und-berichte/2021/10/0810konstituierung-pua-v.html">parliamentary inquiry</a> was established in October to understand where this chain broke down during the summer floods, and who should be held accountable. One of us has been asked to give evidence to this inquiry, providing perspective on what went wrong and on how to improve preparation for future crises.</p>
<h2>Luxembourg floods</h2>
<p>As Germany flooded, so did the small landlocked country of Luxembourg, bordered by Germany to the east. Here, <a href="https://floodlist.com/europe/luxembourg-floods-july-2021">floods caused</a> more than 100 evacuations and <a href="https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20211020/STORY/912345334/Luxembourg-insurers-suffer-nearly-$150-million-loss-from-floods">financial losses</a> of at least £111m.</p>
<p>The floods seemed to take the country by surprise. Even though the <a href="https://emergency.copernicus.eu/">Copernicus Emergency Management Service</a>’s European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) was indicating a high chance of extreme flooding in the affected area <a href="https://www.efas.eu/en/news/faq-efas-and-recent-flood-events">several days</a> in advance, <a href="https://theconversation.com/report-from-europes-flood-zone-researcher-calls-out-early-warning-system-gridlock-amid-shocking-loss-of-life-164648">some people</a> said they received no warning of the impending rise in water levels.</p>
<p>What’s more, a flagship emergency warning app meant to provide early warnings to the Luxembourg population had only been downloaded by 15,000 people out of a population of 640,000 – and crashed on the day of the flood. The servers hosting Luxembourg’s National Meteorology Service website also crashed following the floods, displaying only an error message to citizens desperate for information.</p>
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<img alt="Water rises up the side of a row of houses" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430799/original/file-20211108-15-1aj30dg.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Floods in Luxembourg cost the country over a hundred million pounds in damage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Hesperange_(51314741080).jpg">Tristan Schmurr/Flickr</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Many people were unaware that they were even at risk. Later, flood victims complained that they had no idea they lived in a flood zone, did not know what to do to keep themselves safe when the water came into their houses, and had no idea where to find information about the risks they faced. </p>
<p>This catalogue of failures may not have been the fault of any individual agencies or individuals, but overall it is likely to have led to the material and emotional toll of the disaster being much worse than if all systems had been operational. Yet Luxembourg authorities seem unwilling to learn from this situation.</p>
<p>Luxembourg’s prime minister, Xavier Bettel, said in parliament that “no one could have predicted the extent of the flooding” as it unfolded: a <a href="https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/1804527.html">statement</a> that is factually incorrect, since EFAS predicted it. He then went on to insist that an external inquiry into the flood response was <a href="https://www.rtl.lu/news/national/a/1804260.html">not necessary</a>, since individual agencies had already reviewed their own performance.</p>
<p>This is a poor decision if Luxembourg wants to prepare itself better for future floods: particularly given evidence that, in this case, the lack of early warning and adequate preventative measures were the main factors causing the disaster to unfold in the way it did.</p>
<h2>Learning from the past</h2>
<p>After the UK suffered from severe and costly flooding from one of the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-40548635">wettest summers</a> on record in 2007, the subsequent <a href="https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20100807034701/http:/archive.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/pittreview/_/media/assets/www.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/flooding_review/pitt_review_full%20pdf.pdf">review</a> of the country’s response by planning expert <a href="https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Pitt_Review_Lessons_learned_from_the_2007_floods">Sir Michael Pitt</a> identified key focus areas to help the UK deal more effectively with flooding in the future.</p>
<p>The review provided the start of a transformational change in flood risk management across the UK. This included the creation of the <a href="http://www.ffc-environment-agency.metoffice.gov.uk/">Flood Forecasting Centre</a> in April 2009 – a collaboration between the Environment Agency and the Met Office that combines weather and flooding expertise to give early warnings of extreme weather events. The centre has provided crisis management support during all major floods since that time: including flooding from two major storms, <a href="http://www.ffc-environment-agency.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/FFC-Annual-Review-2019-20.pdf">Ciara and Dennis</a>, in February 2020.</p>
<p>Now, the whole world is watching Glasgow to see how leaders respond to the climate crisis. While we decide how to adapt to the increasing climate risks that lie ahead, our first job should be to learn from what communities across the world have already experienced.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="COP26: the world's biggest climate talks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424739/original/file-20211005-17-cgrf2z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This story is part of The Conversation’s coverage on COP26, the Glasgow climate conference, by experts from around the world.</strong>
<br><em>Amid a rising tide of climate news and stories, The Conversation is here to clear the air and make sure you get information you can trust. <a href="https://page.theconversation.com/cop26-glasgow-2021-climate-change-summit/"><strong>More.</strong></a></em> </p>
<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171423/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, local and national governments and humanitarian agencies on the forecasting and warning of natural hazards. She is a Council member of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council, a fellow of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, a fellow of the Centre for Natural Hazards & Disaster Science in Sweden and is also affiliated to Uppsala University in Sweden. Her research is funded by the UKRI Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council, the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council and the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeff Da Costa works for University of Reading. </span></em></p>Failures to respond adequately to the floods that hit Germany and Luxembourg in July 2021 must teach us how to prepare for future climate disasters.Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology, University of ReadingJeff Da Costa, PhD Researcher in Hydrometeorology, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1652952021-11-05T12:30:09Z2021-11-05T12:30:09ZThe US was not prepared for a pandemic – free market capitalism and government deregulation may be to blame<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430000/original/file-20211103-17-1fprqlu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2185%2C1370&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In reprioritizing public health, the U.S. limited its ability to respond quickly and effectively to the pandemic.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/quarantine-1-dollar-banknote-with-medical-mask-the-royalty-free-image/1215055651">Anton Petrus/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s unclear when the pandemic will come to an end. What may be an even more important question is whether the U.S. will be prepared for the next one. The past year and a half suggests that the answer may be no.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=YCsTY4sAAAAJ">medical anthropologist</a> who has spent the past 20 years studying how the Chinese government reacts to infectious disease, my research can provide insight into how countries, including the U.S., can better prepare for disease outbreaks.</p>
<p>Researchers agree that a good response starts with a <a href="https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.305861">strong public health system</a>. But this is something that <a href="https://www.milbank.org/quarterly/opinions/us-health-care-in-our-neoliberal-era/">has been sidelined</a> by the United States’ <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-exactly-is-neoliberalism-84755">neoliberal system</a>, which places more value on free markets and deregulation than public welfare.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/dzLv3rfnOVw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Neoliberalism promotes a free market accessible to the wealthy few, making essential services less free for everyone else.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>As US neoliberalism evolved, public health devolved</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/03085147.2015.1013356">Neoliberal economic policies</a> became popular in the 1980s during the Reagan and Thatcher eras. This new approach aimed to make government leaner and more efficient through measures like market deregulation, privatization and reduction of government provision of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41301-020-00255-z">public services</a> like health and education – resources that do not necessarily lend themselves to market production.</p>
<p>While neoliberal governments still work to promote the health, welfare and security of their citizens, they place the responsibility of providing those services in the hands of private entities like health insurance companies and nongovernmental organizations. This gives the government space to focus on economic performance.</p>
<p>But placing responsibility for a public good into the hands of a private corporation turns that good into a commodity that people need to buy, rather than a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41301-020-00255-z">service publicly available to all</a>.</p>
<p>Spending on health care in the U.S., including on hospitals, medications and private insurance, has <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/a-dozen-facts-about-the-economics-of-the-u-s-health-care-system/">more than tripled</a> in the past 60 years. But the public health system that helps the nation <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520295766/unprepared">prepare for the unexpected</a> has been neglected. </p>
<p>U.S. spending on the local health departments that help to avert epidemic outbreaks and protect the health of populations <a href="https://khn.org/news/us-public-health-system-underfunded-under-threat-faces-more-cuts-amid-covid-pandemic/">fell by 18%</a> between 2010 and 2021. Two and a half cents of every medical dollar goes toward public health, a figure that has fallen from <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/america-prepared-next-pandemic/620238/">1930 levels</a> of 3.3 cents of every dollar. This has allowed the U.S. to manage health risks like <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/drugs-for-life">chronic diseases</a> that threaten individual’s health. But it leaves the nation inadequately prepared for population-level major health threats that have a much bigger effect on the economy and society.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1397318954360659969"}"></div></p>
<p>Public health cuts left the U.S with a skeletal workforce to manage the pandemic. Because of this, responsibility <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/osha-coronavirus.html">fell to individuals</a>. For example, without mandatory workplace COVID-19 safety guidelines, essential workers faced daily exposure to the coronavirus with insufficient to no protective gear and sanitizing supplies. They had to protect both their own health and the health of their families when they returned home, a difficult task without proper resources and support.</p>
<p>And this was not unique to the U.S. There were similar COVID-19 outcomes in other neoliberal countries like the <a href="https://doi.org/10.13169/jglobfaul.7.1.0009">U.K.</a> and <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2021/05/india-covid-19-neoliberal-state-narendra-modi-vaccine-bjp-austerity">India</a> that had shifted priorities away from public health.</p>
<h2>How Asian nations learned their lessons</h2>
<p>The story was different in many <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-asian-countries-are-keeping-covid-19-under-control-11603229882">Asian nations</a> where people enjoy the same types of individual liberties as those who live in neoliberal societies. The difference is a <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/covid-19-pandemic_how-cultural-differences-help-asian-countries-beat-covid-19-while-us-struggles/6193224.html">collectivist</a> type of mindset that guides these societies and encourages people and government to take responsibility for one another. In her book <a href="https://www.dukeupress.edu/flexible-citizenship"><em>Flexible Citizenship</em></a>, anthropologist Aihwa Ong argues that this leads to a societal model where citizens can be independent and self-reliant while also able to rely on a state that supports the collective. Countries like <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/how-taiwan-beat-the-coronavirus.html">Taiwan</a> and <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/whats-south-koreas-secret/611215/">South Korea</a> may have been better prepared to respond to the pandemic because most people are accustomed to protecting themselves and their communities. </p>
<p>Like China, these countries also learned from their recent experience with a pandemic. In 2003, China and much of Asia were caught off guard with the emergence of <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.3201%2Feid1011.040797_02">SARS</a>. Like the U.S., China’s public health system had <a href="http://hdl.handle.net/10419/148725">taken a backseat</a> to investment in market reforms for over 20 years. As a result, it <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.2105%2FAJPH.2020.305654">couldn’t accurately track</a> individual cases of infections.</p>
<p>Following the end of the SARS outbreak, however, the Chinese government improved training for public health professionals and developed one of the most sophisticated <a href="https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226401263.003.0011">disease surveillance systems</a> in the world. This allowed China to respond more quickly to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and late 2019 COVID-19 outbreaks, once it was able to get past the initial <a href="https://www.prcleader.org/yanzhong-huang">bureaucratic and political hurdles</a> that prevented local doctors and government officials from sounding the alarm. </p>
<p>Some have attributed this swift action to China’s <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/02/coronavirus-and-chinas-authoritarian-advantage/">authoritarian</a> form of government that allows for greater control over individual lives. But prioritizing public health is not new to China. This became official practice <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021911820002284">as early as 1910</a> when it adopted the methods of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/19/health/wu-lien-teh-china-masks.html">quarantine, surveillance and masking</a> to respond to an outbreak of pneumonic plague.</p>
<h2>Could this work in the US?</h2>
<p>Much like SARS did with China, COVID-19 has exposed huge holes in the American public health infrastructure. </p>
<p>Take for example <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-contact-tracing">contact tracing</a>. SARS taught China and other affected countries the importance of a robust system to identify and track people who may have been exposed to the COVID-19 virus. The Chinese government sent <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries">more than 1,800 teams of scientific investigators</a> to Wuhan to trace the virus, which helped their efforts to quickly bring the virus under control.</p>
<p>In the U.S., on the other hand, poorly funded and thinly staffed public health departments <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/06/03/1002878557/why-contact-tracing-couldnt-keep-up-with-the-u-s-covid-outbreak">struggled to test and notify people</a> who had been in direct contact with infected individuals. This crippled the U.S.’s ability to prevent the spread of COVID-19.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430018/original/file-20211103-27-4nm7vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person scans phone app used for contact tracing and has temperature checked by guard before entering a shopping area" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430018/original/file-20211103-27-4nm7vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/430018/original/file-20211103-27-4nm7vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430018/original/file-20211103-27-4nm7vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430018/original/file-20211103-27-4nm7vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430018/original/file-20211103-27-4nm7vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430018/original/file-20211103-27-4nm7vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/430018/original/file-20211103-27-4nm7vx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A widely adopted contact tracing system in China helped control the spread of COVID-19.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/woman-scans-her-health-code-app-used-for-contact-tracing-as-news-photo/1234662565">Kevin Frayer/Stringer via Getty Images News</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In my home state of Massachusetts, the local government teamed up with the global health organization <a href="https://www.pih.org/ma-response">Partners in Health</a> to start a contact tracing operation. But even then, people were left to fend for themselves. This became all the more evident as people <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/03/02/nation/those-frustrated-with-vaccine-system-crew-volunteers-is-ready-help/">scrambled for vaccines</a> after their initial approval, through Facebook groups and informal volunteer networks that worked to help people secure appointments. Those who had resources learned how to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/health/white-people-covid-vaccines-minorities.html">take advantage of the system</a> while <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/older-adults-left-behind-in-desperate-dash-for-vaccine-shots">others were overlooked</a>.</p>
<p>This is typical of a U.S. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/opinion/coronavirus-health-care-market.html">health care system</a> that is consumer-oriented and market-based. Americans are often convinced that the solution to a health problem must be <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/09/america-prepared-next-pandemic/620238/">technical and costly</a>. The focus was placed on developing vaccines and therapeutics, which are essential for ending the pandemic, while ignoring lower-cost solutions.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/19/health/wu-lien-teh-china-masks.html">masking</a> and <a href="https://healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-prevention/people-gave-up-on-flu-pandemic-measures-a-century-ago-when-they-tired-of-them">social distancing</a> – non-pharmaceutical interventions that have long been known to save lives during disease outbreaks – fell by the wayside. Uptake of these simple interventions is dependent on strong and coordinated public health messaging. </p>
<p>As seen in several <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/lessons-learned-from-taiwan-and-south-koreas-tech-enabled-covid-19-communications/">Asian nations</a> like Taiwan and South Korea, a well-thought-out plan for public health communication is key to a unified response. Without clear, coordinated directions from a public health system, it becomes difficult to prevent the spread of an outbreak.</p>
<h2>What it takes to be prepared</h2>
<p>Anthropologist <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520295766/unprepared">Andrew Lakoff</a> describes preparedness as more than just having the tools. It’s also about knowing how and when to use them, and keeping the public properly informed. </p>
<p>Such preparedness can only happen in a coordinated fashion organized by national leadership. But the U.S. has seen little of this over the past year and a half, leaving pandemic response up to individuals. In an era where emergent viruses are an increasing threat to health and welfare, the individualism of neoliberal policies is not enough. While neoliberalism can be good for an economy, it’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.2190%2FHS.42.3.b">not so good for health</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165295/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elanah Uretsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While neoliberalism has allowed U.S. markets to grow, the resultant stunted public health system left Americans to figure out how to protect themselves from COVID-19 and its fallout on their own.Elanah Uretsky, Associate Professor of International and Global Studies, Brandeis UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1690852021-10-01T00:06:01Z2021-10-01T00:06:01ZTornado rips through western NSW — what are tornadoes and what do we need to know?<p>A tornado has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/tornado-rips-through-central-west-severe-storm-warnings-across-nsw-20210930-p58w7o.html">swept through central western New South Wales</a>, with the Bureau of Meteorology <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/releases/903/tornado-confirmed-in-central-western-new-south-wales/">reporting</a> damage to houses, powerlines and trees around the Clear Creek area, north-east of Bathurst.</p>
<p>But while many think of tornadoes as a rare event in Australia, <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/149/5/MWR-D-20-0248.1.xml">they are actually surprisingly common</a>, and have <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/community-safety/severe-wind">killed</a> quite a number of people since European occupation. Geoscience Australia <a href="https://www.ga.gov.au/scientific-topics/community-safety/severe-wind">says</a> there have been more than 40 tornado-related deaths in Australia in the past 100 years.</p>
<p>That’s because Australia has the right environmental conditions that favour the formation of tornadoes, which have the fastest wind speeds of any natural hazard type on Earth.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424107/original/file-20210930-14-1m3z8e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424107/original/file-20210930-14-1m3z8e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424107/original/file-20210930-14-1m3z8e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424107/original/file-20210930-14-1m3z8e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424107/original/file-20210930-14-1m3z8e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424107/original/file-20210930-14-1m3z8e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424107/original/file-20210930-14-1m3z8e2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The oldest known photograph of a tornado in Australia, taken at Marong in Victoria in 1911.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">C Hosken/Museum Victoria</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-in-australia-theyre-more-common-than-you-think-11909">Tornadoes in Australia? They're more common than you think</a>
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</em>
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<h2>Tornadoes are born, they live, they die</h2>
<p>Australia has expansive areas of flat land — usually agricultural land — and it’s over these large, flat areas that tornadoes like to form. It’s much the same in “Tornado Alley”, a stretch of central United States where tornadoes are most frequent. </p>
<p>You get thunderstorms developing over these areas of flat land because warm, moist air collides with a front of cold, dry air and that’s exactly what it takes for a storm to be born.</p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WSyHhfKBUsE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">How a tornado forms.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>You sometimes see a tube coming out from a thundercloud and it’s only once it touches the ground that it’s a tornado. </p>
<p>How long they live on the ground and how far they travel influences the scale of damage.</p>
<p>Most storms only last a few minutes, but in Tornado Alley in the US, there have been tornadoes up to 500m in diameter on the ground for four hours. That kind of tornado would cause monumental damage.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-are-tornadoes-so-destructive-14519">Explainer: why are tornadoes so destructive?</a>
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<p>Some tornadoes touch down briefly and are quite narrow, perhaps just 20m across. They might run for a few metres and then die. Others can be much bigger and obviously if they touch down in a metropolitan area they can do a lot of damage very quickly — and they can behave very unpredictably.</p>
<p>Tornadoes can go up a street and pick one house out on the street and reduce it to a pile of debris, leaving the other houses alone. Or the opposite can happen — every house on the street is smashed but one.</p>
<p>Eventually, tornadoes run out of energy. If the base of the funnel loses contact with the ground, it dies. Most tornadoes occur in the mid afternoon to early evening. </p>
<p>Much like other types of natural hazards, tornadoes can be classified according to their impact. We have a magnitude scale for tornadoes called the Enhanced Fujita scale, which goes from 0-5 (where 5 is the biggest). It’s too early to say what the recent NSW tornado measured on the Enhanced Fujita scale because damage surveys are yet to be completed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424103/original/file-20210930-22-17mxikl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424103/original/file-20210930-22-17mxikl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424103/original/file-20210930-22-17mxikl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424103/original/file-20210930-22-17mxikl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424103/original/file-20210930-22-17mxikl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424103/original/file-20210930-22-17mxikl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424103/original/file-20210930-22-17mxikl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tornadoes are classified in to six categories from 0 to 5, where 5 is the most destructive.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Australia has had some big tornadoes</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/stormarchive/storm.php?stormType=tornado">BOM has a national tornado database</a> and record of accounts of tornadoes over last century and some were quite big. One of the most memorable tornadoes occurred in December 2015 where a tornado ripped through the Kurnell area of eastern Sydney. No one was killed but people were injured and the tornado caused a lot of damage. Windspeeds got up to 210km per hour. According the BOM, this <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/stormarchive/storm.php?attributes%5B%5D=0&attributes%5B%5D=1&attributes%5B%5D=2&attributes%5B%5D=3&attributes%5B%5D=4&attributes%5B%5D=7&attributes%5B%5D=14&attributes%5B%5D=22&search_area=N&s_day=1&s_month=Jan&s_year=2014&e_day=30&e_month=Sep&e_year=2016&output_type=web&action=form&submit=Generate+report&stormType=tornado">tornado was recorded as a 2</a> on the Enhanced Fujita scale.</p>
<p>Generally, Australia gets tornadoes all over NSW and Victoria, as well as the southwestern part of Western Australia.</p>
<p>There is a distinct spatial geography to where tornadoes occur around the world. This map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US shows those places around the world with the right conditions to allow tornadoes to form.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424104/original/file-20210930-22-1c2duys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/424104/original/file-20210930-22-1c2duys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424104/original/file-20210930-22-1c2duys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424104/original/file-20210930-22-1c2duys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=322&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424104/original/file-20210930-22-1c2duys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424104/original/file-20210930-22-1c2duys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/424104/original/file-20210930-22-1c2duys.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A global map of tornado regions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NOAA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How do we detect, monitor and give early warning of tornadoes?</h2>
<p>The truth is it’s very hard to give precise early warnings. Rather, weather services monitor for the types of conditions right for tornado development because tornadoes can form very quickly.</p>
<p>The Bureau of Meteorology uses Doppler radar to detect them in the short term. In that imaging, they show an unusual thing called a “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/hook-echo">hook echo</a>”. That’s basically showing inside the thundercloud system, where winds are rotating really fast - a telltale sign that a tornado might be about to form. </p>
<p>But in Australia and in the US, we only usually know when a tornado is coming toward the ground if tornado spotters report them.</p>
<p>Can we expect them to become more frequent with climate change? We’ve got no idea. It’s impossible for climate science to predict because they are such small size phenomena. We need to rely on good planning and great spotters. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-role-of-climate-change-in-eastern-australias-wild-storms-60552">The role of climate change in eastern Australia's wild storms</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What should I do if I am in a tornado?</h2>
<p>In the US they have evacuation shelters in places such as toilets in malls or airports, which are reinforced with concrete. Residential houses tend to have a central shelter — sometimes in a cellar or under a staircase.</p>
<p>We generally don’t have that in Australia but if you end up in a tornado, it’s basically a case of “duck and cover”.</p>
<p>Find the most secure, reinforced part of the building — which is often the staircase, if the staircase is up against a wall. You want to take shelter in the part of the building that is most likely to stay up if the tornado comes over your head.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/169085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dale Dominey-Howes receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the State and National Disaster Mitigation Program and the Global Resilience Partnership. </span></em></p>Australia has expansive areas of flat land — usually agricultural land — and it’s over these large, flat areas that tornadoes like to form.Dale Dominey-Howes, Professor of Hazards and Disaster Risk Sciences, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1677432021-09-15T15:22:32Z2021-09-15T15:22:32ZContrary to popular belief, Eastern Canada is more at risk of earthquakes than perceived<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421121/original/file-20210914-23-1cofej0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C21%2C3593%2C2381&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cities in Eastern Canada, like Montréal, are at risk of damage from earthquakes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pixabay.com/photos/montreal-skyline-city-town-406895/?download">(Life-of-Pix/Pixabay)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/contrary-to-popular-belief--eastern-canada-is-more-at-risk-of-earthquakes-than-perceived" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Most Canadians believe that the greatest national <a href="https://www.citynews1130.com/2021/01/02/bc-earthquake-period-big-one/">risk of a devastating earthquake lies in British Columbia</a>. </p>
<p>The whole Pacific northwest coast, with its rugged topography and <a href="https://www.earthquakeauthority.com/California-Earthquake-Risk/California-Earthquake-History-Timeline">history of the San Francisco and Los Angeles earthquakes farther south</a>, is what typically comes to mind when we talk about the “<a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/where-the-pacific-northwest-rsquo-s-ldquo-big-one-rdquo-is-more-likely-to-strike/">big one</a>” that has yet to hit. We want to change that perception while there’s time.</p>
<p>A closer look at the complex factors at play, both under and on the Earth’s surface, shows that some of the worst risk is actually <a href="https://www.seismescanada.rncan.gc.ca/zones/eastcan-en.php">where Canadians are probably least expecting it</a>: in a zone running from the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence River that includes major cities like Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa, Montréal and Québec City.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421195/original/file-20210914-15-qtofdb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing earthquakes in or near Canada between 1627 and 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421195/original/file-20210914-15-qtofdb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421195/original/file-20210914-15-qtofdb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421195/original/file-20210914-15-qtofdb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421195/original/file-20210914-15-qtofdb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421195/original/file-20210914-15-qtofdb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421195/original/file-20210914-15-qtofdb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421195/original/file-20210914-15-qtofdb.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Map showing earthquakes in or near Canada between 1627 and 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/historic-historique/caneqmap-en.php">(Natural Resources Canada)</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Experienced preparedness</h2>
<p>It’s true that the same faults that put California and parts of the West Coast of the United States at risk also make B.C. a serious earthquake concern. The notorious “<a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/ring-fire/">Pacific Ring of Fire</a>,” where <a href="https://www.iris.edu/hq/inclass/animation/plate_boundaries_three_types_described">massive tectonic plates are constantly threatening to reshape the landscape as they shift, collide and overlap</a>, is aptly named.</p>
<p>It’s safe to say coastal B.C. has <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-management/preparedbc/know-your-hazards/earthquakes-tsunamis/earthquakes">a culture of earthquake readiness</a>. People on the West Coast are much more aware and better prepared. They are familiar with emergency protocols, and many keep a survival kit handy in case a quick exit becomes necessary. Seismic monitoring is abundant, and far more buildings are designed or retrofitted to mitigate the potential for serious earthquake damage. </p>
<p>This is not the case in southern Ontario and southwestern Québec, even though the risk is significant as <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000901">more than half of Canada’s population lives</a> in this vulnerable corridor. What is the source of this complacency?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420880/original/file-20210913-21-lsqb4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Sign reading TSUNAMI HAZARD ZONE IN CASE OF EARTHQUAKE GO TO HIGHER GROUND" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420880/original/file-20210913-21-lsqb4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/420880/original/file-20210913-21-lsqb4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420880/original/file-20210913-21-lsqb4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420880/original/file-20210913-21-lsqb4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420880/original/file-20210913-21-lsqb4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420880/original/file-20210913-21-lsqb4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/420880/original/file-20210913-21-lsqb4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Earthquake preparedness education in Vancouver.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Understanding risk</h2>
<p>It likely has to do with the type of risk. In Eastern Canada, the threat is not directly from the interplay between plates of the Earth, as it is in the west. </p>
<p>In Ontario and Québec, the risk is from the less sexy but still deadly intraplate activity — seismic activity that occurs in the middle of tectonic plates which are not directly associated with plate boundaries. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020TC006509">Intraplate areas also have faults</a>. Some, dating as far back as the formation of the continents, can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001825">reactivated under certain stresses</a>, such as when pressure on the edges of plates thousands of kilometres away push on them, causing them to move. </p>
<p>Lines of weakness dating back millions of years can become hazardous once again when new stresses come into play.</p>
<p>When the last of the glaciers receded about 11,000 years ago, for example, their <a href="http://www.antarcticglaciers.org/glaciers-and-climate/sea-level-rise-2/recovering-from-an-ice-age/">massive weight left the Earth’s surface dented</a>. That’s a long time to us, but it’s a snap of the fingers in geological time. In places <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/1999GL011070">where the ground has not yet “popped” back into place, it is overdue to do just that</a>, potentially violently pushing people, buildings and infrastructure out of the way.</p>
<p><a href="https://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/info-gen/faq-en.php#can_how_often">Earthquakes happen all the time in Canada</a>. There are about 4,000 every year, most of them too small or too remote to notice. But from time to time, <a href="https://www.seismescanada.rncan.gc.ca/pprs-pprp/pubs/GF-GI/GEOFACT_ValdesBois2010.pdf">there are much stronger quakes</a>. A disproportionate number of those have happened in Eastern Canada, especially in the Ottawa Valley and western St. Lawrence Valley, in seismic zones that include Ottawa, Montréal and Québec City, but also farther west, in the highly populated seismic zones of the lower Great Lakes.</p>
<p>We are not the first to suggest these hazards in Ontario and Québec need more attention, but our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001825">recent research confirms these risks are real and the threat is imminent</a>.</p>
<h2>Reading the landscape</h2>
<p>In Canada, there isn’t a very long <a href="https://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/stndon/NEDB-BNDS/bulletin-en.php">record of instrument-recorded seismological activity</a>, especially in the eastern region, but we do have abundant physical evidence of significant earthquakes from the past, which still remains the best predictor of future events. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106070">bottoms of major lakes in Ontario and Québec</a>, for example, provide a significant and still visible record of sediment upheaval that could only have been caused by major earthquakes long before human settlement.</p>
<p>As scientists we feel bound not to panic anyone unduly. At the same time, we feel a duty to offer warnings where they are needed, and this is certainly one of those instances.</p>
<p>The risk in Eastern Canada has <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-magnitude-does-damage-begin-occur-earthquake?qt-news_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products">less to do with magnitude</a>, which can be measured on the familiar <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/earthquake-hazards/science/earthquake-magnitude-energy-release-and-shaking-intensity?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects">Richter scale</a>, and more with vulnerability. A lower magnitude quake that strikes in a vulnerable area, such as a densely populated city like Montréal, can still be catastrophic, especially if it happens at the wrong time of day, such as rush hour or in the middle of the night.</p>
<p>Predicting the timing of earthquakes is still beyond the reach of science, and even if we knew precisely when and where a quake was coming, there would still be nothing we can do to stop it. </p>
<p>What we can do is take action to mitigate harm from seismic events through <a href="https://www.cdhowe.org/public-policy-research/fault-lines-earthquakes-insurance-and-systemic-financial-risk">infrastructure design</a>, pinpointing more specific areas of heightened risk through research and making sure that resources, including <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w29144">insurance</a>, are available for recovery.</p>
<p>In Canada, most of the anticipation of big earthquakes focuses on the Pacific coast. We’d like everyone to add the Great Lakes and the western St. Lawrence region to that mental file — and to be ready.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremy Rimando's postdoctoral fellowship at McMaster University was funded in part by the Keith MacDonald structural geology advancement fund</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Lewis Peace receives funding from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) through Discovery Grant RGPIN-2021-04011.</span></em></p>Some of the worst risks of earthquakes are in a zone running from the Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence River that includes major cities like Toronto, Ottawa and Québec City.Jeremy Rimando, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Structural Geology and Tectonics, McMaster UniversityAlexander Lewis Peace, Assistant Professor (Structural Geology), McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1641692021-09-01T20:08:43Z2021-09-01T20:08:43ZWhen it comes to preparing for disaster there are 4 distinct types of people. Which one are you?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411408/original/file-20210715-32735-17afio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=104%2C441%2C3917%2C2704&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren Pateman/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine it’s summer in Australia and a bushfire is bearing down on your suburb. Are you the pragmatic type – you’ve swapped phone numbers with the neighbours, photocopied your ID and have your emergency plan at the ready? Or are you the sentimental type – you’ve backed up the family photos but forgotten to insure the house, or don’t have an evacuation plan for the cat?</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.redcross.org.au/getmedia/ab257262-e978-4aa3-b8fb-a7f16010e52d/Preparedness-Report-JULY-2021.pdf.aspx">research</a> out today shows when it comes to getting ready for disasters, there are four types of people. And this matters, because good disaster preparedness doesn’t just help people during and immediately after a disaster – it can also mean a quicker recovery.</p>
<p>The research, commissioned by Australian Red Cross, examined the experiences of 165 people who lived through a disaster such as fire and flood between 2008 and 2019. We identified a number of steps people wished they’d taken to prepare for disaster, such as protecting sentimental items, planning where the family should meet if separated and better managing stress.</p>
<p>The Black Summer bushfires, this year’s New South Wales floods, the storms around Melbourne and even COVID-19 remind us how disasters can disrupt people’s lives. Hopefully, examining the hard-won lessons of those who’ve lived through the worst life can throw at us will help individuals and communities better prepare and recover from these events.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man, woman and two children in blankets" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411413/original/file-20210715-21-2pnbpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411413/original/file-20210715-21-2pnbpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411413/original/file-20210715-21-2pnbpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411413/original/file-20210715-21-2pnbpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411413/original/file-20210715-21-2pnbpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411413/original/file-20210715-21-2pnbpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411413/original/file-20210715-21-2pnbpg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Examining the hard-won lessons of those who’ve lived through disaster will help others prepare.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Our key findings</h2>
<p>The survey questions focused on preparedness actions people took before a disaster, their experience of a disaster and recovery. </p>
<p>Participants were 18 years or older and had experienced a disaster between January 2008 and January 2019. This allowed time for people to experience the challenges and complexity of the recovery process.</p>
<p>Among our key findings were:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>feeling prepared leads to a reduction in stress when dealing with the recovery process. And the less people are stressed, the better their recovery up to ten years after a disaster.</p></li>
<li><p>generally, the more people do to get prepared, the more they feel prepared. However, one in five respondents who reported not feeling prepared had undertaken actions that should have made them feel prepared. And 3% said they were prepared when they hadn’t undertaken any action, which mostly comes from the lack of knowledge of the most efficient preparedness actions.</p></li>
<li><p>the source of advice matters. More of those who received preparedness advice from Australian Red Cross – either directly or through its Get Ready app – had recovered. Those who had no preparedness training or received advice from family or friends were least likely to report having felt in control during the emergency.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/proceed-to-your-nearest-virtual-exit-gaming-technology-is-teaching-us-how-people-respond-to-emergencies-160623">Proceed to your nearest (virtual) exit: gaming technology is teaching us how people respond to emergencies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man gathers leaves" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411409/original/file-20210715-17-d12wvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411409/original/file-20210715-17-d12wvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411409/original/file-20210715-17-d12wvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411409/original/file-20210715-17-d12wvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411409/original/file-20210715-17-d12wvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411409/original/file-20210715-17-d12wvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411409/original/file-20210715-17-d12wvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The research found disaster preparedness, such as clearing fire risk around the home, can be linked to recovery.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dominica Sanda/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3 ways to prepare</h2>
<p>Three distinct groups of preparation actions emerged, which we outline below.</p>
<p><strong>Protect my personal matters:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>develop strategies to manage stress levels</li>
<li>protect or back up items of sentimental value</li>
<li>make copies and protect important documents such as identification papers, wills, financial documents</li>
<li>make plans for reunification of family if separated during an emergency.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Build my readiness:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>identify sources of information to help prepare for and respond to an emergency</li>
<li>find out what hazards might affect their home and plan for them</li>
<li>use preparedness materials such as bushfire survival plans.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Be pragmatic:</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>make a plan for pets/livestock/animals</li>
<li>swap phone numbers with neighbours</li>
<li>take out property insurance.</li>
</ul>
<p>Those who had taken action to prepare for disaster were asked what other actions they wished they’d taken. The top answer was having copies of important documents, such as ID and financial papers, that are potentially complicated to replicate and may be needed during recovery.</p>
<p>The full range of answers is below:</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="0mEDJ" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0mEDJ/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>Which preparedness type are you?</h2>
<p>Our research showed four types of persona emerged in terms of preparing for a disaster. Hopefully, identifying these groups means preparedness messaging can in future be customised, based on people’s characteristics.</p>
<p>Have a look at the graphic below – is there a type you identify with the most?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418358/original/file-20210830-25-1pxka89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418358/original/file-20210830-25-1pxka89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418358/original/file-20210830-25-1pxka89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418358/original/file-20210830-25-1pxka89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=770&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418358/original/file-20210830-25-1pxka89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418358/original/file-20210830-25-1pxka89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418358/original/file-20210830-25-1pxka89.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=968&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/author provided data</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Recovery is complex</h2>
<p>Our survey asked if people felt they had recovered from the disaster. Importantly, we did not propose a standard definition of recovery, which allowed respondents to define their recovery in their own way. We then sought to determine how a person’s disaster preparation affected recovery.</p>
<p>Nearly 18% of respondents said they had not recovered at the time of the survey. Surprisingly, 86% of those said they took action to get prepared (compared to 76% of those who had recovered). But those who had not recovered were more likely to feel their preparation actions were not enough. Importantly, 86% also experienced high levels of stress during the recovery, compared to 60% who had already recovered at the time of the survey.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the proportion of respondents who found the recovery process slightly stressful, somewhat stressful or extremely stressful are comparable (15%, 16% and 16% respectively). However, four out of ten respondents reported high levels of stress during the recovery.</p>
<p>What’s more, a greater proportion of those who had not yet recovered required government assistance after the disaster (71%), relative to those who felt they had recovered (38%).</p>
<p>In the group of those not yet recovered, people earning less than A$52,000 a year were over-represented.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-revealed-flaws-in-our-food-supply-it-gives-us-a-chance-to-fix-them-159642">COVID revealed flaws in our food supply. It gives us a chance to fix them</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="children rake branches" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411416/original/file-20210715-15-1t7xt01.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411416/original/file-20210715-15-1t7xt01.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411416/original/file-20210715-15-1t7xt01.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411416/original/file-20210715-15-1t7xt01.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411416/original/file-20210715-15-1t7xt01.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411416/original/file-20210715-15-1t7xt01.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411416/original/file-20210715-15-1t7xt01.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Disaster preparedness advice should be tailored to the needs of those receiving it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Ready for anything</h2>
<p>Our research shows being prepared can help reduce the long-term impacts of a disaster. The level of disaster preparedness in the Australian population is traditionally low, and so it’s important to demonstrate the benefits to ensure more people get ready for emergencies.</p>
<p>Preparedness programs should have a greater focus on preparing for the long-term impacts of a disaster. And these programs should differ based on people’s characteristics and they type of preparation support they need, particularly focusing on those who have less capacity to prepare and recover from the disruption of disaster.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay Foundation. Read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/164169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Agathe Tiana Randrianarisoa works for Australian Red Cross. She also is a PhD student at RMIT University and DIAL (Dauphine University/IRD).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Richardson works for Australian Red Cross. He is also an Honorary Fellow of the University of Melbourne's Melbourne School of Population and Global Health</span></em></p>New research also identified steps people wished they’d taken to prepare for disaster, such as protecting sentimental items, planning a meeting place and better managing stress.Agathe Tiana Randrianarisoa, PhD student and Senior Researcher, RMIT UniversityJohn Richardson, Honorary Fellow, Child and Community Wellbeing Unit, Beyond Bushfires Research Program, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1629762021-06-18T13:27:07Z2021-06-18T13:27:07ZWhy the UK is so unprepared for the impacts of climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407205/original/file-20210618-21-6ke24h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4618%2C3083&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/storm-ciara-reaches-welsh-coast-massive-1642044301">Steved_np3/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK is woefully unprepared for the dangers of climate change according to <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/independent-assessment-of-uk-climate-risk/">a report</a> from the Climate Change Committee – an independent adviser to the UK government. Despite leading one of the wealthiest countries in the world, the report says the government is failing to prepare the public for the <a href="https://theconversation.com/heatwaves-are-an-invisible-killer-and-the-uk-is-woefully-unprepared-144703">deadly heatwaves</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/storm-christoph-uk-flood-response-improving-but-lockdown-confused-the-messaging-153802">catastrophic flooding</a> that rising temperatures will bring. </p>
<p>The likely consequences range from premature deaths, power cuts, crop failures and water shortages. The report highlights that a number of areas require immediate attention, with 60% of the risks discussed in the report classified as urgent.</p>
<p>The UK has set relatively ambitious targets for mitigating climate change and recently pledged to reach <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035">78% net zero emissions by 2035</a>. With the <a href="https://theconversation.com/britains-electricity-since-2010-wind-surges-to-second-place-coal-collapses-and-fossil-fuel-use-nearly-halves-129346">near disappearance of coal</a> from the country’s energy mix over the last decade, government ministers are fond of saying that the UK has managed to decarbonise faster than any other <a href="https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/02/15/how-britain-decarbonised-faster-than-any-other-rich-country">rich country</a>. So why is the UK lagging so far behind in the task of retrofitting homes, climate-proofing the rail network and electrical grid and re-wetting peatlands (one of the country’s largest natural carbon sinks)?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A ditch dug in a peat bog." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407217/original/file-20210618-21-jxpm31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407217/original/file-20210618-21-jxpm31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407217/original/file-20210618-21-jxpm31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407217/original/file-20210618-21-jxpm31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407217/original/file-20210618-21-jxpm31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407217/original/file-20210618-21-jxpm31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/407217/original/file-20210618-21-jxpm31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Without action to restore Britain’s peatlands, droughts could turn them from net carbon sinks to sources.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/peat-digging-on-isle-skye-scotland-446748349">Krizek Vaclav/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Even as climate change wreaks havoc worldwide, with <a href="https://timesofoman.com/article/3015900/oman/tourism/highest-temperature-in-oman-recorded-on-friday#:%7E:text=Muscat%3A%20The%20highest%20temperature%20recorded,meteorological%20stations%20on%2012th%20June">record high temperatures</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/17/1007784176/new-wildfires-10-year-high-western-u-s?t=1624014950938">wildfires</a>, most attention is paid to mitigating the crisis, with agreements and policies focused on limiting emissions. The UK is no exception. Research on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025739">politics of climate change</a> helps us understand why.</p>
<h2>Prevention is less popular than cure</h2>
<p>Climate change adaptation is often considered <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/445597a">taboo</a> at worst, and a secondary approach at best, among those invested in tackling climate change. This has starved it of attention from politicians. </p>
<p>By dealing with the consequences of climate change rather than trying to attack its root causes, some worry that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvp.2014.10.009">adaptation efforts will divert attention</a> from the main goal of climate change mitigation. Some argue that reducing how severe the consequences of climate change are could cause a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2005.08.009">rebound effect</a> where people, businesses, and states feel less inclined to address what is causing the crisis.</p>
<p>This is compounded by the role political incentives play. Politicians and policymakers are not solely driven by the need to implement policies that work. Rather, they’re also concerned with how their policies can grow their support among the public and voters.</p>
<p>Research has found that the public tends to be more supportive of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055409990104">reactive adaptation policies</a>, like compensating those affected by natural disasters after the fact, compared with more proactive policies, such as investing in flood protection.</p>
<p>After natural disasters in the US, voters were more likely to support the governing party when it focused spending on disaster relief compared to disaster preparedness. This is probably because reactive policies, such as compensation payments, are more visible and easily understood than investments with no obvious immediate benefit.</p>
<p>Politicians have more to gain from being seen to respond when a disaster occurs than making the necessary preparations to avoid disaster in the first place. Political incentives are not aligned in a way that encourages large-scale investment in climate change adaptation.</p>
<h2>Global climate adaptation</h2>
<p>Even well resourced countries like the UK, which have made some progress in curbing emissions, are falling behind in preparing for the short-term consequences of climate change. The UK appears no further forward on this front <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/16/uk-failing-to-protect-against-climate-dangers-advisers-warn">compared with 2016</a>, when the Climate Change Committee published its last report.</p>
<p>What does the UK’s failure to properly prepare for climate chaos mean for global adaptation efforts? Climate adaptation is often considered an economic problem that can be fixed with <a href="https://www.unep.org/explore-topics/climate-change/what-we-do/climate-adaptation">project funding</a> and <a href="https://www.greenclimate.fund/">finance for poorer countries</a>. The UK’s failure suggests there is another important factor. Without the right political conditions, wealth is no guarantee of preparedness.</p>
<p>Ensuring that money for adaptation is matched with the right political incentives is crucial for ensuring that everyone is protected against the ravages of climate change today and in the immediate future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162976/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam F. Beiser-McGrath does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mitigating climate change is more politically popular than adapting to its inevitable effects.Liam F. Beiser-McGrath, Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Politics and Director of the PECC Lab, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1582792021-06-03T12:24:52Z2021-06-03T12:24:52ZHurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, floods – whatever your local risk, here’s how to be more weather-ready<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/403801/original/file-20210601-17-qeke72.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C0%2C5661%2C3728&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Mark Poindexter puts a tarp on the damaged roof of his home in Gulf Breeze, Louisiana, on Aug. 29, 2020, in the aftermath of Hurricane Laura.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TropicalWeather/8c4502b0d6ec4dee9d34c9bd277de0ef/photo">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Summer in the U.S. means that it’s time to be ready for <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-another-active-atlantic-hurricane-season">hurricanes</a> and <a href="https://thedataface.com/2018/11/public-health/wildfires-map">wildfires</a>. The incidence of weather and climate disasters is <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2020-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-historical">increasing in the U.S.</a>, a trend due partly to <a href="https://theconversation.com/western-fires-are-burning-higher-in-the-mountains-at-unprecedented-rates-in-a-clear-sign-of-climate-change-159699">climate change</a> but also to human decisions. </p>
<p>Since the 1950s, population growth has <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13071/w13071.pdf">increased significantly in Sun Belt states</a>. Millions of people have moved to coastlines, from Texas to the Carolinas, putting more lives and property in harm’s way during hurricanes. Florida, the hurricane capital of the United States, now is the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/en/states">third-most-populous state in the nation</a>.</p>
<p>Recognizing that Americans are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s <a href="https://www.weather.gov/wrn/">Weather-Ready Nation initiative</a> is helping communities plan for events like violent tornadoes, destructive hurricanes and widespread flooding. As a <a href="https://www.weather.gov/people/salna-erik">meteorologist and supporter of this effort</a>, I believe that everyone should understand what kinds of severe weather hazards could affect their family and home and be ready for them. Here are some ways to do it.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1399531528904974337"}"></div></p>
<h2>What to do instead of taping windows</h2>
<p>For Atlantic and Gulf coast residents, hurricane preparedness has to be a way of life. It means knowing whether you live in a <a href="https://flash.org/pdf/2020_Hurricane_Evacuation_Zones.pdf">designated evacuation zone</a>. That’s key in the event of storm surge – when a hurricane pushes seawater up onto local beaches and inland areas. Readiness also means having a family and business disaster plan that details preparations, and maintaining a <a href="https://dem.fiu.edu/emergencies/emergency-kit/index.html">hurricane survival kit</a>. </p>
<p>Another priority is knowing how to protect your home and business from damaging winds. Conducting a home insurance review with your agent and scheduling a <a href="https://www.homeinspector.org/">wind mitigation inspection</a> will identify what you can do to strengthen and protect vulnerable parts of the building such as windows, entry doors, garage doors and roofs. </p>
<p>Adding metal hurricane shutters or hurricane-resistant windows can help. So can retrofitting the attic or eaves with <a href="https://apps.floridadisaster.org/hrg/content/walls/wood_frame_rtw_conn.asp">metal hurricane straps</a>, which connect the rafters to the walls to prevent the roof from blowing off.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The owner of a Mexico Beach, Florida, house that survived Hurricane Michael, a Category 5 storm in 2018, describes his home’s stormproofing features.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Here’s one step to skip: Putting tape onto windows for wind protection from a hurricane. Tape does nothing to reduce wind damage, so this is a waste of time. </p>
<p>Consumers also need to rethink how they shop for a new home in storm-prone areas. It’s OK to want granite countertops, walk-in closets and a safe neighborhood near schools and parks. But buyers should also consider how well a house is built, its age, the materials it contains, the shape and condition of the roof, and building code requirements at the time it was constructed. </p>
<p>And they should ask whether the house is located in a <a href="https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps">flood-prone area</a>, has wind-resistant features or has been <a href="https://apps.floridadisaster.org/hrg/">retrofitted against hurricanes</a>. Even residents who don’t live in a zone where it is required should consider taking out flood insurance.</p>
<h2>Storm-testing buildings</h2>
<p>Florida International University’s <a href="https://www.ihrc.fiu.edu/">International Hurricane Research Center</a>, which is part of our <a href="https://eei.fiu.edu/">Extreme Events Institute</a>, was designated NOAA’s first Weather-Ready Nation ambassador in South Florida. Our <a href="https://fiu.designsafe-ci.org/">Wall of Wind</a> facility is capable of creating Category 5 hurricane conditions – winds with speeds over 157 mph. </p>
<p>Like crash testing for vehicles, wind testing can help ensure that structures, traffic signals and building components can hold up under stress. The Wall of Wind is part of the National Science Foundation’s <a href="https://www.designsafe-ci.org/about/">Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure program</a>. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/d5qjZO7dVDg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A Wall of Wind demonstration shows how inexpensive building reinforcements can prevent costly hurricane damage.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For educational outreach, we host the yearly <a href="https://news.fiu.edu/2021/virtual-wall-of-wind-challenge-inspires-high-school-students-to-tackle-real-world-problems?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=FIU%20Newsletter">Wall of Wind Mitigation Challenge</a>, in which teams of local high school students develop innovative wind mitigation concepts and solutions. And the Extreme Events Institute uses a <a href="https://eei.fiu.edu/equation/the-equation/">risk equation</a> to help the public understand and support measures to confront the “risk drivers” that lead to major losses.</p>
<p>For more about hurricane mitigation and preparedness, watch our 12-episode “<a href="https://mods.org/eyeofthestorm/">Eye of the Storm</a>” video series, or visit our <a href="https://huracanes.fiu.edu/">Spanish-language hurricane website</a>.</p>
<h2>Wildfires, tornadoes and floods</h2>
<p>NOAA’s <a href="https://www.weather.gov/">National Weather Service</a> is also investing in new forecasting tools and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/news/192203-strategic-plan">linking its forecasts to lifesaving decisions</a> made in every state and county. The goal is to provide timely forecasts that emergency managers, first responders, government officials, businesses and the public can act on.</p>
<p>Across the United States, Weather-Ready Nation ambassadors are preparing for many types of extreme weather events. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://theconversation.com/another-dangerous-fire-season-is-looming-in-the-western-u-s-and-the-drought-stricken-region-is-headed-for-a-water-crisis-160848">extreme wildfire season</a> is expected in many Western states. The Oregon Office of Emergency Management is asking residents to <a href="https://phys.org/news/2021-05-good-summer-wildfire-season.html">have a bag packed and to prepare an evacuation plan</a>. </p>
<p>Flooding can occur almost anywhere across the country, and hazards can develop quickly. Flooded roadways can be deadly, so take heed of NOAA’s “Turn Around Don’t Drown” message and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood-turn-around-dont-drown">avoid walking or driving in flooded areas</a> – it could save your life. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/COLBDZEDGKN/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Tornado safety is critical. Tornado readiness includes <a href="https://www.weather.gov/oun/safety-severe-homesafety">knowing the safest room in your home</a> – usually a windowless interior room on the lowest floor – and <a href="https://www.weather.gov/nwr/">tuning in to NOAA Weather Radio</a>, which will provide severe-weather information directly from your local National Weather Service office. </p>
<p>During any severe weather event, such as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-texas-blackouts-showed-how-climate-extremes-threaten-energy-systems-across-the-us-155834">February 2021 deep freeze in Texas</a>, the power may go out, so everyone should have flashlights and batteries on hand. Portable generators can be useful during extended outages, but <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/co/pdfs/generators.pdf">always operate them outdoors</a> to avoid the risk of <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/04/29/texas-carbon-monoxide-poisoning/">carbon monoxide poisoning</a>.</p>
<p>Apathy and complacency can also be dangerous when it comes to weather-driven disasters. In my view, weather readiness has to become a way of life – something that all Americans see as their responsibility. The best forecasts in the world may be useless if the public doesn’t respond or hasn’t taken the needed actions to protect themselves when extreme weather threatens.</p>
<p>Most importantly, remember to help your neighbors when needed, especially if they are elderly and can’t help themselves. In addition, consider supporting local nonprofits or churches that help residents in your community who have financial or transportation needs to be ready and safe. We are all in this together.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erik Salna currently leads education and outreach projects funded by the Florida Division of Emergency Management and the Inter-American Teacher Education Network (ITEN) with the Organization of American States (OAS).
</span></em></p>Federal weather scientists are pushing to make the US more ‘weather-ready,’ which could mean prepping for fires, flooding or storms depending on where you live. The common factor: thinking ahead.Erik Salna, Associate Director of Education and Outreach, Extreme Events Institute, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1592232021-04-19T22:57:32Z2021-04-19T22:57:32ZNZ’s next large Alpine Fault quake is likely coming sooner than we thought, study shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395884/original/file-20210419-23-1lg2ps0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=47%2C71%2C5278%2C1655&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA/JPL/NGA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Graphic of Alpine Fault" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395880/original/file-20210419-23-x3obpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395880/original/file-20210419-23-x3obpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=806&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395880/original/file-20210419-23-x3obpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=806&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395880/original/file-20210419-23-x3obpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=806&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395880/original/file-20210419-23-x3obpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1013&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395880/original/file-20210419-23-x3obpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1013&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395880/original/file-20210419-23-x3obpk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1013&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Alpine Fault marks the boundary between the Pacific and Australian plates in the South Island of New Zealand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The chances of New Zealand’s Alpine Fault rupturing in a damaging earthquake in the next 50 years are much higher than previously thought, according to our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00721-4">research</a>, published today.</p>
<p>The 850km Alpine Fault runs along the mountainous spine of the South Island, marking the boundary where the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates meet and grind against each other, forcing up the Southern Alps. Over the past 4,000 years, it has ruptured more than 20 times, on average around every 250 years.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DeuK7ZMVJYc?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Alpine Fault earthquakes are recorded in lake sediment deposits.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717. It shunted land horizontally by eight metres and uplifted the mountains a couple of metres. Large earthquakes on the fault tend to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040195110002647">propagate uninhibited</a> for hundreds of kilometres.</p>
<p>Until now, scientists thought the risk of a major earthquake in the next 50 years was about 30%. But our analysis of data from 20 previous earthquakes along 350 kilometres of the fault shows the probability of that earthquake occurring before 2068 is about 75%. We also calculated an 82% chance the earthquake will be of magnitude 8 or higher.</p>
<h2>Alpine Fault earthquakes in space and time</h2>
<p>From space, the fault appears like a straight line on the western side of the Southern Alps. But there are variations in the fault’s geometry (its orientation and the angle it dips into Earth’s crust) and the rate at which the two <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/tect.20041">plates slip past each other</a>. </p>
<p>These differences separate the fault into different segments. We thought the boundaries between these segments might be important for stopping earthquake ruptures, but we didn’t appreciate how important until now.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Graphic of Alpine Fault" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395879/original/file-20210419-13-f80wr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/395879/original/file-20210419-13-f80wr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395879/original/file-20210419-13-f80wr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395879/original/file-20210419-13-f80wr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=130&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395879/original/file-20210419-13-f80wr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395879/original/file-20210419-13-f80wr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/395879/original/file-20210419-13-f80wr2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=164&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Differences in geometry and the rate of slip between the tectonic plates create sections along the Alpine Fault.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We examined evidence from 20 previous Alpine Fault ruptures <a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/gsabulletin/article-abstract/128/3-4/627/126352/A-2000-yr-rupture-history-for-the-Alpine-fault">recorded in sediments</a> in four lakes and two swamps on the west coast of the South Island over the past 4,000 years. From this evidence, we built one of the most complete earthquake records of its kind.</p>
<p>Once we analysed and dated the sediments from lakes near the Alpine Fault, we were able to see new patterns in the distribution of earthquakes along the fault. One of our findings is a curious “earthquake gate” at the boundary between the fault’s south western and central segments. It appears to determine how large an Alpine Fault earthquake gets. </p>
<p>Some ruptures stop at the gate and produce major earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range. Ruptures that pass through the gate grow into great earthquakes of magnitude 8 or more. This pattern of stopping or letting ruptures pass through tends to occur in sequences, producing phases of major or great earthquakes through time.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-alpine-fault-reveals-extreme-underground-heat-and-fluid-pressure-77868">New Zealand's Alpine Fault reveals extreme underground heat and fluid pressure</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Forecasting the next Alpine Fault earthquake</h2>
<p>From the record of past earthquakes it is possible to forecast the likelihood of a future earthquake (i.e. a 75% chance the fault will rupture in the next 50 years). But from these data alone it is not possible to estimate the magnitude of the next event. </p>
<p>For this we used a physics-based model of how earthquakes behave and applied it to the Alpine Fault, testing it against data from earlier earthquake sequences. This is the first time we have been able to use past earthquake data that span multiple large earthquakes and are of sufficient quality to allow us to evaluate how such models could be used in forecasting.</p>
<p>The physics-based model simulated Alpine Fault earthquake behaviour when we included the variations in fault geometry that define the different fault segments. When the simulation is combined with our record of past behaviour it is possible to estimate the magnitude of the next earthquake.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rocky-icebergs-and-deep-anchors-new-research-on-how-planetary-forces-shape-the-earths-surface-146576">Rocky icebergs and deep anchors – new research on how planetary forces shape the Earth's surface</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Alpine Fault earthquake record shows the past three earthquakes ruptured through the earthquake gate and produced great (magnitude 8 or higher) earthquakes. Our simulations show that if three earthquakes passed through the gate, the next one is also likely to go through. </p>
<p>This means we’d expect the next earthquake to be similar to the last one in 1717, which ruptured along about 380km of the fault and had an estimated magnitude 8.1. </p>
<p>Our findings do not change the fact the Alpine Fault has always been and will continue to be hazardous. But now we can say the next earthquake will likely happen in the next 50 years. </p>
<p>We need to move beyond planning the immediate response to the next event, which has been done well through the Alpine Fault Magnitude 8 (<a href="https://af8.org.nz/what-is-af8/">AF8</a>) programme, to thinking about how we make decisions about future investment to improve infrastructure and community preparedness.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159223/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Howarth receives funding from EQC and the Rutherford Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rupert Sutherland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand’s Alpine Fault has ruptured in a major earthquake on average every 250 years. New research shows a 75% chance of the next one within 50 years, and it’s likely to be magnitude 8 or more.Jamie Howarth, Senior lecturer, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonRupert Sutherland, Professor of tectonics and geophysics, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of WellingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1580782021-03-29T19:06:14Z2021-03-29T19:06:14ZMore than a decade after the Black Saturday fires, it’s time we got serious about long-term disaster recovery planning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392210/original/file-20210329-21-gfjcyh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3840%2C2160&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Ten years on from the 2009 Victorian Black Saturday fires, in which 173 people died, 3,500 buildings were destroyed and entire townships were wiped out, about two thirds of people from highly impacted communities reported they felt “mostly” or “fully recovered”. </p>
<p>Their perceptions of <em>community recovery</em> were much lower, however, with only about a third of people in the worst-affected areas feeling their community was “mostly” or “fully recovered”.</p>
<p>These are among the key findings of the <a href="https://mspgh.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/3645090/BB-10-years-report_spread.pdf">Beyond the Bushfires</a> report released today, a major investigation of the long-term impacts of one of the worst natural disasters in Australian living memory. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392195/original/file-20210329-17-gzb3p6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392195/original/file-20210329-17-gzb3p6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392195/original/file-20210329-17-gzb3p6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392195/original/file-20210329-17-gzb3p6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392195/original/file-20210329-17-gzb3p6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=206&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392195/original/file-20210329-17-gzb3p6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392195/original/file-20210329-17-gzb3p6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392195/original/file-20210329-17-gzb3p6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Beyond the Bushfires report.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As the climate warms and disasters are predicted to become more frequent and intense, the report recommends governments invest in preparing long-term frameworks for recovery from major disasters and find innovative ways to boost community resilience before, during and after the moment of crisis. </p>
<p>Failing to address these longer term impacts risks entrenching disadvantage, because disaster-hit communities — many of which were struggling even before the fires — can struggle for years after the flames are out.</p>
<p>Investing in disaster resilience now, and normalising the idea that recovery is a long-term project, can help put communities in a better position to withstand disasters when they inevitably strike.</p>
<h2>A long tail</h2>
<p>Our report draws on data from more than 1,000 participants who told us of their experiences through community meetings, repeated surveys (three, five and 10 years after the fires) and in-depth interviews (three to five years after the fires).</p>
<p>We also spent a lot of time in the first five years visiting communities, being part of community meetings and speaking with contacts built up over many years.</p>
<p>The main finding to emerge is that these events have a long tail. There’s no quick clean-up to get things back to normal. Mental health impacts can linger for many years. People are generally extraordinarily resilient and we need to applaud that, but the disruption to lives continues well after the initial crisis clears. </p>
<p>We found:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a slump in life satisfaction from three to five years after the bushfires, which improved again at ten years after the bushfires</p></li>
<li><p>ten years after the fires, 22% of people were reporting symptoms consistent with a diagnosable mental health disorder, including post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and psychological distress — more than twice the levels in low-impacted communities</p></li>
<li><p>around 10% of people in high-impacted communities reported anger problems five years after the fires. This was three times higher than in low and moderately impacted communities and more common among women, younger people and the unemployed </p></li>
<li><p>in the first three to four years following the bushfires, reports of violence experienced by women were seven times higher in high bushfire-affected areas when compared with low bushfire-affected regions. For women, experiences of violence were also linked with income loss and poorer mental health </p></li>
<li><p>a sense of community cohesion was lower in high-impact communities ten years after the bushfires</p></li>
<li><p>loss of income, property loss and relationship breakdown increased the risk of mental health impacts</p></li>
<li><p>most people who rebuilt felt the timing of their rebuild was about right.</p></li>
</ul>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392197/original/file-20210329-13-1tt3qp7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392197/original/file-20210329-13-1tt3qp7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392197/original/file-20210329-13-1tt3qp7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392197/original/file-20210329-13-1tt3qp7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392197/original/file-20210329-13-1tt3qp7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=171&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392197/original/file-20210329-13-1tt3qp7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=215&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392197/original/file-20210329-13-1tt3qp7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=215&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392197/original/file-20210329-13-1tt3qp7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=215&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Beyond the Bushfires report.</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We often see a huge outpouring of public compassion and support in the aftermath of a major disaster. But our report recommends governments and service providers ensure support (and funding) is spread over years rather than rushed out.</p>
<p>Among our key recommendations is that governments establish a staged five-year framework for recovery from major disasters. This would account for extended mental health impacts and support short- and long-term recovery, resilience and community connectedness.</p>
<p>Financial advice, help with navigating building regulations, relationship counselling and job retraining are all needed over the years following a disaster. A variety of mental health supports are also needed. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392212/original/file-20210329-23-1cnpiww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392212/original/file-20210329-23-1cnpiww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/392212/original/file-20210329-23-1cnpiww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392212/original/file-20210329-23-1cnpiww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392212/original/file-20210329-23-1cnpiww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392212/original/file-20210329-23-1cnpiww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392212/original/file-20210329-23-1cnpiww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/392212/original/file-20210329-23-1cnpiww.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most people who rebuilt felt the timing of their rebuild was about right, we found.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Change is needed not just at the government level, but society-wide. The public needs to recognise recovery is a long-term project. There is often public pressure for agencies and governments to act quickly, which risks funds being only spent on immediate needs. There’s then precious little left for later staged interventions.</p>
<p>But some needs may not be initially apparent. We must allow people to recover at their own pace, in their own way and have long-term support in place to do that. </p>
<h2>Building community can build disaster resilience</h2>
<p>The role of social networks and community groups is incredibly important. We found people who belonged to a local community group tended to have better outcomes in the three to five years post bushfires than those who did not. These benefits seemed to extend across the wider community in areas where many people belong to local community groups.</p>
<p>Support for community groups means building and providing access to spaces where people can meet and socialise, supporting access to relevant equipment and materials, giving training opportunities and providing funding. </p>
<p>Spaces that allow people to gather and connect are crucial. But there should be more than one meeting space to allow for differences in communities. </p>
<p>School-based bushfire education and recovery support programs are also needed. This would teach children and teenagers how to live in bushfire-risk environments and involve them in local bushfire preparedness and recovery initiatives. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone
you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14. This story is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158078/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Gibbs' research has received funding from the the NHMRC, ARC, the Victorian government, the Australian Red Cross and the Teacher's Health Foundation.</span></em></p>Our report draws on data from more than 1,000 participants who told us of their experiences through community meetings, repeated surveys years after the fires or in-depth interviews.Lisa Gibbs, Academic, Population Health, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1575762021-03-21T09:09:56Z2021-03-21T09:09:56ZFloods leave a legacy of mental health problems — and disadvantaged people are often hardest hit<p>Yet again, large swathes of New South Wales are underwater. A week of solid rain has led to floods in the Mid-North Coast, Sydney and the Central Coast, with several areas being <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/mar/21/australia-weather-live-updates-sydney-new-south-wales-nsw-flood-rain-wild-weather-hawkesbury-river-western-sydney">evacuated</a> as I write.</p>
<p>As a resident of the NSW Far North Coast, which has had its share of devastating floods, many of the tense scenes on the news are sadly familiar. </p>
<p>Unless you have lived through it, it is hard to understand just how stressful a catastrophic flood can be in the moment of crisis. As research evidence shows, the long term impact on mental health can also be profound. And often it is the most disadvantaged populations that are hardest hit.</p>
<h2>Disaster risk and disadvantage</h2>
<p>In many places, socio-economic disadvantage and flood risk go hand in hand.</p>
<p>In a study published last year, led by the University Centre for Rural Health in Lismore in close collaboration with the local community, colleagues and I looked at population data following <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/debbie17.shtml">Cyclone Debbie</a> in 2017. We found people living in the Lismore town centre flood footprint experienced significantly higher levels of social vulnerability (when compared to the already highly vulnerable regional population). This study would not have been possible without the support of the Northern Rivers community who responded to the Community Recovery
after Flood survey, nor without the active support, enthusiasm and commitment of the Community Advisory Groups in Lismore and Murwillumbah and community organisations.</p>
<p>Notably, over 80% of people in the 2017 Lismore town centre flood-affected area were living in the lowest socio-economic neighbourhoods. The flood-affected areas of Murwillumbah and Lismore regions included 47% and 60% of residents in the most disadvantaged quintile neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>By examining data from the <a href="https://www.saxinstitute.org.au/our-work/45-up-study/">45 and Up study</a>, we also showed that participants living in the Lismore town centre flood footprint had significantly higher rates of smoking and alcohol consumption. They were also more likely to have pre-existing mental health conditions such as depression and anxiety, as well as poorer general health. </p>
<p>Research from <a href="https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JPIF-11-2016-0088/full/html">Germany</a> and the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3655805?seq=1">US</a> has shown flood risk is often a significant predictor of lower rental and sale prices.</p>
<p>So even before disaster strikes, residents in flood-prone areas may be more likely to battle with financial and health issues. Our <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-020-03887-z">study</a> showed disaster affected people also had the fewest resources to recover effectively. When floods arrive, the impact on mental health, in particular, can be acute. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/underinsurance-is-entrenching-poverty-as-the-vulnerable-are-hit-hardest-by-disasters-152083">Underinsurance is entrenching poverty as the vulnerable are hit hardest by disasters</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Floods and mental health</h2>
<p>A flood can be extremely stressful in the moment, as one rushes to protect people, property, pets and animals and worries about the damage that may follow. Can you imagine clinging to a rooftop in the rain in the middle of the night and waiting to be rescued? </p>
<p>The damage caused by floods causes enormous financial pain, and can lead to housing vulnerabilities and homelessness, especially for those without insurance — and research reveals a <a href="https://theconversation.com/underinsurance-is-entrenching-poverty-as-the-vulnerable-are-hit-hardest-by-disasters-152083">pattern of underinsurance in disadvantaged populations across Australia</a>.</p>
<p>Even if you are lucky enough to have insurance, waiting to have your claim assessed and approved, then dealing with a shortage of tradies can take a real toll on your mental health. The waiting and the uncertainty can be especially hard.</p>
<p>Other flood <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247252/">research</a> by colleagues and I, led by the University Centre for Rural Health, showed business owners whose homes and businesses had flooded were almost 6.5 times more likely to report depressive symptoms. Business owners with insurance disputes were four times more likely to report probable depression.</p>
<p>Flood affected business owners whose income didn’t return to normal within six months were also almost three times<a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247252/"> more likely</a> to report symptoms of depression. </p>
<p>Lack of income can clearly cause stress for the individual, their family and their larger network. Small businesses play an important role in rural communities and employ a large number of people so the sustainability of local businesses is crucial. </p>
<p>We also found the higher the floodwater was in a person’s business, the more likely the person was to experience depressive symptoms. </p>
<p>People whose business had water above head height in their entire business were four times more likely to report depressive symptoms. Those who had water between knee and head height in their business were almost three times more likely to report probable <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247252/">depression</a>. All this adds up to an increase in mental health issues that often follows a flood. </p>
<p>Six months after the flooding, business owners felt most supported by their local community such as volunteers and neighbours. However, those that felt their needs were not met by the state government and insurance companies were almost three times more likely to report symptoms of depression.</p>
<h2>Preparedness and awareness</h2>
<p>So, what can be done?</p>
<p>Firstly, we can boost preparedness. Risk and preparedness education may be especially needed for people who have recently moved to flood-prone regions. Many who have moved to regional areas recently may not be aware they live in a flood zone, or understand how fast waters can move and how high they can reach. Education is needed to raise awareness about the dangers. People may need help to prepare a flood plan and know when to leave. </p>
<p>Secondly, supporting people and local businesses after a disaster and assisting the local economy in its recovery could help reduce the mental health burden on people and the business community. </p>
<p>Thirdly, mental health services must be provided. A chaplaincy program was implemented in Lismore by the local government to assist business owners with emotional and psychological support after Cyclone Debbie and ensuing floods. This program was <a href="https://occup-med.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12995-020-00264-1">largely well received</a> by business owners for having provided psychological support and raising mental health awareness. </p>
<p>However, the ongoing lack of mental health support remains an issue, especially in rural areas, and is exacerbated by disasters.</p>
<p>Fourthly, insurance disputes and rejection of insurance claims were among the strongest associations with likely depression in our research. We must find ways to improve the insurance process including making it more affordable, improving communication, by making claims easier and faster and boosting people’s understanding of what’s included and excluded from their policy.</p>
<p>No single organisation, government or department can solve these complex problems on their own. <a href="https://www.nswrdn.com.au/site/nder-report">Strong partnerships between organisations</a> are crucial and have been shown to work, as is direct and real-time support for flood-affected people.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-talk-about-disaster-risk-reduction-without-talking-about-inequality-153189">You can't talk about disaster risk reduction without talking about inequality</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This story was updated to add more detail about the author’s research funding, collaborative partners and affiliation. It is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the stories <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157576/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sabrina Pit has received funding in the past from NHMRC. The flood research was funded by The University of Sydney, Western Sydney University, University of Wollongong, Northern NSW Local Health District and the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage. Funders played no direct role in designing the study and writing for publication.
</span></em></p>Unless you’ve lived through it, it’s hard to understand how stressful a catastrophic flood can be - both in the moment and long after the event. That’s especially true for vulnerable populations.Sabrina Pit, Honorary Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney, Honorary Adjunct Research Fellow, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1572752021-03-17T12:14:10Z2021-03-17T12:14:10ZWild weather: 4 essential reads about tornadoes and thunderstorms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389943/original/file-20210316-15-1p8xg81.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3637&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Debris near Lebanon, Tennessee, after tornadoes struck on the night of March 3, 2020, killing more than 20 people across the state. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NashvilleTragedies-OneYearLater/beedd1a8612543bc8dcb6d35ee39ec2e/photo">AP Photo/Mark Humphrey</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Springtime in the U.S. is frequently a season for thunderstorms, which can spawn tornadoes. These large storms are common in the South and Southeast in March and April, then shift toward the Plains states in May. Scientists have warned that 2021 could be an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/02/25/active-tornado-season-south/">active tornado year</a>, partly because of a La Niña climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Past research has suggested that La Niña increases the frequency of tornadoes and hail by concentrating hot, humid air over Texas and other Southern states, which <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-affect-spring-tornadoes-and-hailstorms">helps to promote storm formation</a>. </p>
<p>These four articles from The Conversation’s archives explain how tornadoes form, why night tornadoes are more deadly, and how in rare cases thunderstorms can take a different but equally destructive form – a derecho. We also look at a neglected aspect of disaster response: disposing of massive quantities of waste. </p>
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<h2>1. How thunderstorms generate tornadoes</h2>
<p>Most tornadoes are spawned by large, intense thunderstorms called supercell thunderstorms. The key ingredients are rising air that rotates, and wind shear – winds at different altitudes blowing at different speeds, and/or from different directions. </p>
<p>Forecasters can’t always predict when or where a tornado may form, but they are very good at identifying the conditions that have the potential to support strong tornadoes. As Penn State university meteorologists <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=T2Ozg5EAAAAJ&hl=en">Paul Markowski</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=EUp5dOkAAAAJ&hl=en">Yvette Richardson</a> explain, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center routinely predicts large outbreaks days in advance. ‘High-risk’ outlooks capture most <a href="https://theconversation.com/understanding-tornadoes-5-questions-answered-77448">major tornado events</a>, and strong tornadoes rarely occur outside of tornado watches. We have less ability to forecast tornadoes in more marginal situations, such as within non-supercell storms.”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>2. A special risk in the South: Night tornadoes</h2>
<p>Tornado strikes are bad news at any time, but especially when they occur at night. Night tornadoes are more than twice as likely to be fatal as daytime twisters, for several reasons: They are harder for storm spotters to see, people may sleep through alerts, and victims are more likely to be in vulnerable structures such as mobile homes at night. </p>
<p>Night tornadoes are more common in the South because of regional atmospheric conditions there. University of Tennessee geographer <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=LvpAEa0AAAAJ&hl=en">Kelsey Ellis</a> and Middle Tennessee State University geoscientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=BZn_vToAAAAJ&hl=en">Alisa Hass</a> write that communication challenges are a serious problem in their state, where <a href="https://theconversation.com/tornadoes-that-strike-at-night-are-more-deadly-and-require-more-effective-warning-systems-132955">nearly half of tornadoes strike at night</a>. </p>
<p>“Experts in Tennessee recommend having multiple methods for receiving warnings at night,” they note. “This strategy allows for backup options when power goes out, cellphones go down or other unforeseen circumstances occur.”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LT7yRMLAkCY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">What causes some supercell thunderstorms to become tornadoes?</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Derechos: Storms without spin</h2>
<p>In rare instances, weather systems can generate organized lines of thunderstorms called derechos, from the Spanish word for “straight ahead.” For a storm to qualify as a derecho, it has to produce winds of 57.5 mph (26 meters per second) or greater. And those intense winds must extend over a path at least 250 miles (400 kilometers) long, with no more than three hours separating individual severe wind reports.</p>
<p>Most areas of the Central and eastern U.S. may experience a derecho once or twice a year on average. They occur mainly from April through August, but they can also occur earlier in spring or later in fall. And they can inflict heavy damage. A derecho that swept across the Midwest in August 2020 generated <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2020/10/17/iowas-august-derecho-most-costly-thunderstorm-us-history-7-5-billion-damages/3695053001/">over US$7.5 billion in damages</a> – the nation’s most costly thunderstorm. </p>
<p>Derechos can be even harder to predict than tornadoes, and once they form, they can move very fast. As Colorado State University atmospheric scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vfbhQHkAAAAJ&hl=en">Russ Schumacher</a> warns, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Communities, first responders and utilities may have only a few hours to prepare for an oncoming derecho, so it is important to know how to receive severe thunderstorm warnings, such as TV, radio and smartphone alerts, and to take these warnings seriously. Tornadoes and tornado warnings often get the most attention, but lines of severe thunderstorms <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-derecho-an-atmospheric-scientist-explains-these-rare-but-dangerous-storm-systems-140319">can also pack a major punch</a>.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389947/original/file-20210316-13-1if6rhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Metal silo twisted and folded by winds." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389947/original/file-20210316-13-1if6rhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/389947/original/file-20210316-13-1if6rhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389947/original/file-20210316-13-1if6rhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389947/original/file-20210316-13-1if6rhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389947/original/file-20210316-13-1if6rhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389947/original/file-20210316-13-1if6rhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/389947/original/file-20210316-13-1if6rhj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An August 2020 derecho crumpled this grain storage tower in Martelle, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/2jxjHas">Phil Roeder/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Cleaning up after storms</h2>
<p>Tornadoes and other natural disasters often leave huge quantities of debris behind – uprooted trees, splintered buildings, smashed cars and more. It can take communities months or even years to clean up, and the process typically is slow, expensive and dangerous. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vUhXX-MAAAAJ&hl=en">Sybil Derrible</a> of the University of Illinois–Chicago, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rytzGosAAAAJ&hl=en">Juyeong Choi</a> of Florida State University and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J8dGrPwAAAAJ&hl=en">Nazli Yesiller</a> of California Polytechnic State University study urban engineering, disaster management and planning, and waste management. They see a need for new technologies and strategies that officials can use to figure out what materials storm debris contains and find options for <a href="https://theconversation.com/millions-of-burnt-trees-and-rusted-cars-post-disaster-cleanup-is-expensive-time-consuming-and-wasteful-123566">separating, reusing and recycling it</a>. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“For example, drones and autonomous sensing technologies can be combined with artificial intelligence to estimate amounts and quality of debris, the types of materials it contains and how it can be repurposed rapidly. Technologies that allow for fast sorting and separation of mixed materials can also speed up debris management operations,” they write.</p>
<p>“Turning the problem around, creating new sustainable construction materials – especially in disaster-prone areas – will make it easier to repurpose debris after disasters.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p>
<p>[<em>Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/weekly-highlights-61?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=weeklybest">Sign up for our weekly newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157275/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
With the onset of spring come thunderstorms, and sometimes tornadoes. Learn how these systems form and why night tornadoes are especially deadly.Jennifer Weeks, Senior Environment + Cities Editor, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1558342021-03-02T13:24:07Z2021-03-02T13:24:07ZThe Texas blackouts showed how climate extremes threaten energy systems across the US<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387079/original/file-20210301-19-11yngph.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=43%2C7%2C4749%2C2924&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electric service trucks line up after a snow storm in Fort Worth, Texas, on Feb. 16, 2021.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/pike-electric-service-trucks-line-up-after-a-snow-storm-on-news-photo/1231205567?adppopup=true">Ron Jenkins/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Pundits and politicians have been quick to point fingers over the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-power-grid-was-minutes-from-collapse-during-freeze-operator-says-11614202063">debacle in Texas</a> that left millions without power or clean water during February’s deep freeze. Many have blamed the state’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/21/us/texas-electricity-ercot-blackouts.html">deregulated electricity market</a>, arguing that Texas prioritized cheap power over reliability.</p>
<p>But climate extremes are wreaking increasing havoc on energy systems across the U.S., regardless of local politics or the particulars of regional grids. For example, conservatives argued that <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/539038-texas-lawmakers-tweets-mocking-california-power-outages-resurface-amid-winter-storm">over-regulation caused widespread outages in California</a> amid extreme heat and wildfires in the summer of 2020.</p>
<p>As an <a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/LASCI">engineering professor</a> studying <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=I5tDhsoAAAAJ&hl=en">infrastructure resilience under climate change</a>, I worry about the rising risk of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2018.03.015">climate-triggered outages nationwide</a>. In my view, the events in Texas offer three important lessons for energy planners across the U.S. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ANGcms9OQd8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Extreme weather poses a growing threat to power systems across the U.S.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Not enough attention to climate extremes</h2>
<p>Experts widely agree that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or <a href="http://www.ercot.com/">ERCOT</a>, the nonprofit corporation that manages the power grid for most of the state, failed to anticipate <a href="https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/02/17/the-freeze-in-texas-exposes-americas-infrastructural-failings">how sharply demand would spike</a> prior to the February cold wave. ERCOT has a record of lacking capacity to meet winter demand surges. The state grid <a href="https://www.statesman.com/article/20110411/NEWS/304119704">nearly collapsed during a 2011 winter storm</a> and experienced another <a href="https://www.statesman.com/article/20140107/BUSINESS/301079651">close call</a> in 2014, narrowly avoiding rolling blackouts.</p>
<p>But grid operators elsewhere have also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67695-y">underestimated how climate extremes can influence electricity demand</a>. I see many similarities between <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/19/power-outages-texas-california-climate-crisis">California’s summer 2020 power crisis</a> and recent events in Texas.</p>
<p>In both cases, extreme weather caused an unexpected increase in demand and reduced generation capacity at the same time. Because energy operators did not foresee these effects, they had to <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/18/texas-power-outages-ercot/">resort to rolling blackouts</a> to avert even bigger disasters.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1294479825910943746"}"></div></p>
<p>In studies I have conducted in my research lab and in collaboration with <a href="https://scholar.google.de/citations?user=mU4l0vIAAAAJ&hl=en">hydroclimatologist Rohini Kumar</a>, we have found that energy planners in many parts of the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8">substantially underestimate</a> how sensitive electricity demand is to climate factors. This tendency has significant implications for the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13192">security and reliability of the power systems</a>. </p>
<p>For example, in a study published in April 2020 we analyzed the use of artificial intelligence models for energy forecasting that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8">accounted for the role of humidity</a> in addition to air temperature. We found that such models could make forecasts of energy demand for air conditioning on hot days significantly more accurate across the U.S. More accurate demand forecasts help energy planners understand how much power they will need to meet peak demand during weather extremes.</p>
<p>Grid operators can prepare more effectively for the effects of climate change on both supply and demand by using forecasting models and software that academic researchers have already developed. Many of these new solutions have been <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15393-8">published in open-access journals</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graphic showing demand increases in Minneapolis, Madison, Chicago, Cleveland, Columbus and Indianapolis." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387070/original/file-20210301-12-1p5e53w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Results published in the journal Climactic Change from a model that predicts how much summertime electricity and water use in Midwest cities could increase due to climate change between 2030 and 2052. These projections only consider climate effects, not other factors such as population growth or technological shifts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.purdue.edu/uns/images/2020/nateghi-cities.jpg">Greg Simmons/Purdue University</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Water, electricity and natural gas are connected</h2>
<p>Electricity, water and natural gas are essential resources, and it’s hard to have any of them without the others. For example, drilling for natural gas consumes electricity and water. Many power plants burn natural gas to generate electricity. And transporting water and gas requires electricity to pump them through pipelines.</p>
<p>Because of these tight connections, outages in one system are bound to ripple through the others and create a cascade of service disruptions. For example, during the Texas cold wave, pumps used to extract gas in West Texas <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/">could not operate</a> because of electricity outages. This cut state gas field production in half, which in turn strained gas-fired electricity production. Power failures also <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/20/texas-power-water-outages/">hampered water pumping and treatment</a>, potentially allowing bacteria to <a href="https://www.inquirer.com/weather/texas-power-outages-safe-drinking-water-20210219.html">seep into water supplies</a>. </p>
<p>In a collaborative project connecting researchers at <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832688&HistoricalAwards=false">Purdue University</a>, the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832711">University of Southern California</a>, and the <a href="https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1832683">University of California-Santa Cruz</a>, we are analyzing ways to prevent this kind of cascading outage. One promising strategy is to install distributed generation sources, such as solar panels or small wind turbines with batteries, at critical interconnection points between energy, water and natural gas systems.</p>
<p>For their part, consumers also need to understand these connections. Taking a hot shower or running a dishwasher consumes water, along with electricity or gas to heat it. These crunch points often cause trouble during crises. For instance, recent advisories urging Texans to boil their water before using it put extra pressure on already-scarce energy supplies.</p>
<p>Our research shows that utilities need to pay more attention to connections between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114419">natural gas and electricity</a>, and between <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113466">water and electricity</a>. By doing so, planners can see more accurately how climate conditions will affect demand, particularly <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02669-7">under climate change</a>. Rampant gas shortages and electricity and water outages in Texas are a sign that infrastructure operators need to understand more clearly how tightly related these resources are, not only during normal operation but also during crises that can disrupt all of them at once. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People bundled in blankets sit on chairs in a furniture showroom." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/387076/original/file-20210301-15-u2h27p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People with no power at their homes rest inside a Gallery Furniture store in Houston after the owner opened the business as a shelter on Feb. 16, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WinterWeatherTexasPowerFailures/7fb328d93ba34b48a68c84cfca9fb3a4/photo?Query=winter%20weather%20blackouts&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=222&currentItemNo=43">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The future will be different</h2>
<p>Some commentaries on the Texas disaster have called it a “<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackswan.asp">black swan event</a>” that could never have been predicted – or even worse, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2021/02/20/a-dangerous-narrative-emerges-in-the-wake-of-texas-power-blackouts/?sh=cc2f06e3ab21">a “meteor strike</a>.” In fact, the state published a <a href="http://tdem.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/txHazMitPlan.pdf">hazard mitigation plan</a> in 2018 that clearly warned of the potential for severe winter weather to cause widespread outages. And it noted that such events would be far more disruptive in Texas than in other regions that experience harsher winters. </p>
<p>In a 2016 study, several colleagues and I warned that current grid reliability metrics and standards across the U.S. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12401">were inadequate</a>, especially with respect to climate risks. We concluded that those standards “fail to provide a sufficient incentive structure for the utilities to adequately ensure high levels of reliability for end‐users, particularly during large‐scale climate events.” </p>
<p>As I see it, a dominant paradigm of “faster, better, cheaper” in energy planning is placing increasing pressure on our nation’s aging infrastructure. I believe it is time for energy planners to be more proactive and make smart investments in measures that will help power systems handle extreme weather events.</p>
<p>Key steps should include leveraging <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2018.2792680">predictive analytics</a> to inform disaster planning; accounting for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-72207-z">climate uncertainty</a> in infrastructure management; upgrading reliability standards for power transmission and distribution systems; and diversifying the mix of fuels that all states use to generate electricity. Without such steps, frequent disruptions of critical services could become the new norm, with <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-15-000-electricity-bills-in-texas-155822">high costs</a> and heavy impacts – especially on the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/16/climate/texas-blackout-storm-minorities.html">most vulnerable Americans</a>.</p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/155834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roshanak (Roshi) Nateghi receives funding from the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>There will be more weather-driven disasters like February’s deep freeze in Texas, and energy planners aren’t prepared.Roshanak (Roshi) Nateghi, Associate Professor of Industrial Engineering, Purdue UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1526212021-02-21T19:05:41Z2021-02-21T19:05:41ZYou need all 6 pieces of the puzzle to build urban resilience, but too often it’s politics that leaves a gap<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385160/original/file-20210218-22-14d79hx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=734%2C0%2C4553%2C2991&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/aerial-panorama-luxury-suburb-on-gold-1330531067">Greg Brave/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With most of the world’s people now living in urban areas, the coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the importance of urban resilience. It’s just as important for adapting to climate change.</p>
<p>Put simply, resilience is the ability of a system, in this case a city, to cope with a disruption. This involves either avoiding, resisting, accommodating or recovering from its impacts.</p>
<p><a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17535069.2020.1846771">Our research</a>, recently published in the journal Urban Research and Practice, examined two coastal Australian cities, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast. Our aim was to identify ways to improve urban resilience to coastal climate hazards. We found the political aspect of resilience is often overlooked but is critically important.</p>
<p>Contrary to popular belief, building cities that are resilient to the impacts of climate change is not just about infrastructure. Urban resilience also has ecological, social, economic, institutional and, most importantly, political dimensions.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-lived-through-hurricane-katrina-and-helped-design-the-rebuild-floods-will-always-come-but-we-can-build-better-to-prepare-153452">I lived through Hurricane Katrina and helped design the rebuild – floods will always come, but we can build better to prepare</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="View of Lake Cressbrook which supplies Toowoomba" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385164/original/file-20210218-18-b50hrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385164/original/file-20210218-18-b50hrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385164/original/file-20210218-18-b50hrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385164/original/file-20210218-18-b50hrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385164/original/file-20210218-18-b50hrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385164/original/file-20210218-18-b50hrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385164/original/file-20210218-18-b50hrq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Toowoomba residents voted against recycled water at the height of the Millennium Drought, a reminder of the critical role of politics in urban resilience.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/allanhenderson/2351100815/in/photolist-4zL1mX-nQkp38-NyMorG-o7Mtex-fEdSCh-uobZDu-nQj4n6-29iZvnt-uEkpLu-nQigjL-2DCCqp-o5K1aQ-o7JmbY-aDPpEZ-aDPpLV-hVGUAt-o7GcMY-hvcFhN-hvcdT7-hvdEeH-nQiamA-nMBXnf-pYkYa-fEdQK7-o7ESdb">Allan Henderson/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why it is hard to create truly resilient cities</h2>
<p>Urban resilience has recently become a topic for strategic planning and policy. However, many local governments are struggling to implement the necessary changes. The reasons include: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>a precise and universal <a href="http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/iss2/art27/">definition of resilience remains elusive</a>, making the idea difficult to implement in policies and plans</p></li>
<li><p>cities are complex systems, with interlinked physical, natural, social, cultural, political and economic dimensions. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>Some definitions interpret resilience as building back exactly what was lost. Others suggest it requires adjusting or even completely transforming urban systems. </p>
<p>Consider what these two approaches mean when planning for urban floods, for example. One way uses a reactive approach to focus on repairing buildings and infrastructure. Or we can proactively transform all elements of urban systems to <a href="https://theconversation.com/design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water-105844">shift from “fighting water” to “living with water”</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water-105844">Design for flooding: how cities can make room for water</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We argue this second proactive approach to resilience is better. So how do we achieve this transformation?</p>
<h2>The 6 dimensions of urban resilience</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264275116309088">Transformative resilience</a> requires decision-makers to take an integrative, innovative and long-term view. They need to consider all the elements of urban systems at once. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2210670718322935">Previous research</a> identified five main dimensions of urban resilience: infrastructure, ecological, economic, institutional and social. <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17535069.2020.1846771">Our research</a> revealed a so-far-neglected but critically important sixth dimension: political resilience. </p>
<p>In all resilience and adaptation efforts, planners and communities should consider these six dimensions at the same time. Failure to do so can mean resources and time are wasted without achieving the necessary results.</p>
<p><strong>Infrastructural resilience</strong> is the capacity of engineering systems such as pipelines, energy networks and power grids to avoid or resist the impacts of disruptions. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09640568.2019.1708709">Our research on adaptation strategies for sea-level rise</a> shows cities globally rely heavily on engineering structures to manage the impacts of coastal flooding and sea-level rise in already developed low-lying areas. The Gold Coast’s seawall is an example.</p>
<p><strong>Ecological resilience</strong> is the ability of a city to use ecological systems to resist and accommodate the impacts of disturbances. Retaining mangroves and green space, for example, can reduce flood risks. Political and economic pressures to develop land and clear mangroves run counter to this approach.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385163/original/file-20210218-20-120tbb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="aerial view of mangrove-lined creek running through suburbs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385163/original/file-20210218-20-120tbb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385163/original/file-20210218-20-120tbb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385163/original/file-20210218-20-120tbb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385163/original/file-20210218-20-120tbb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385163/original/file-20210218-20-120tbb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385163/original/file-20210218-20-120tbb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385163/original/file-20210218-20-120tbb8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cities that preserve areas of mangroves can reduce their flood risks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/redcliffe-queensland-australia-cabbage-tree-creek-1418250752">Ecopix/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>Economic resilience</strong> includes strategies that allow individuals and communities to recover from the loss and damage caused by a disruption. Climate-related disasters have big financial impacts due to damage to homes, businesses, community facilities and infrastructure. Increasing resilience is expensive, however, and financial institutions’ investment and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/20/townsville-homes-may-become-uninsurable-due-to-flooding-from-climate-change">insurance decisions</a> are critical in determining the patterns of development.</p>
<p><strong>Institutional resilience</strong> focuses on the capacity of government and non-government organisations to support preparation, response and recovery efforts. Unfortunately, at least in the Australian context, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/9781118451694.ch13">our research</a> shows state and national institutions and policies have not provided a clear and consistent direction for local governments.</p>
<p><strong>Social resilience</strong> is the ability of the community and its networks to accommodate and recover from disturbances. This depends on effective, meaningful and timely community engagement. Residents are then empowered to build their own resilience. An informed and active community can also drive political change, which is a crucial element of transformation.</p>
<p><strong>Political resilience</strong> deals with the capacity of the political system, and the commitment of key policymakers, to drive transformational change. A positive example is the leadership of the Lockyer Valley Regional Council in relocating and <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/grantham-reborn-meet-the-little-queensland-town-that-moved-20200227-p5450g.html">rebuilding the town of Grantham</a> after the 2011 floods. A negative example is the decision by the Queensland Newman government (2012-15) to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-09/seeney-removes-climate-change-references-from-council-plan/5954914">stop local councils</a> taking sea-level rise into account in their local plans.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Soldier crouches among the rubble of a house destroyed by flooding" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385161/original/file-20210218-18-14ix0ht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385161/original/file-20210218-18-14ix0ht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385161/original/file-20210218-18-14ix0ht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385161/original/file-20210218-18-14ix0ht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385161/original/file-20210218-18-14ix0ht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385161/original/file-20210218-18-14ix0ht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385161/original/file-20210218-18-14ix0ht.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After the devastating floods of 2011, the town of Grantham was rebuilt on higher ground.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/aus_defence_force/5353937696/in/photolist-8Hs6pr-9a7k9C-9a4ikF-9aNsHd-9aNt21-9aNtwh-9a4brB-9a7k6y-9a7jVS-9a7kcy-9a4bhZ-9a4bkP-9a7k3j">Australian Department of Defence/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-talk-about-disaster-risk-reduction-without-talking-about-inequality-153189">You can't talk about disaster risk reduction without talking about inequality</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The politics can be the biggest challenge</h2>
<p>Of all the six dimensions of urban resilience, the political one often proves to be the most problematic when trying to develop and implement climate change policies or plans. A good example is Toowoomba residents’ <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/toowoomba-says-no-to-recycled-water-20060731-gdo2hm.html">rejection of recycled water</a> during the Millennium Drought. It is not enough to have the best technical and economic responses; you need to be able to navigate the hazards of highly partisan and often irrational politics. </p>
<p>A bipartisan approach to climate change adaptation would go some way to overcoming the major reversals that we have seen in both <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2020.1819766">adaptation</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-tax-repealed-experts-respond-29154">mitigation</a> policies. Is this asking too much of our political leaders? The united response to the coronavirus pandemic, with co-operation bridging party-political divides and federal-state rivalries, suggests it is not completely beyond the realms of possibility. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/152621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aysin Dedekorkut-Howes previously received funding from Queensland Centre for Social Science Innovation, Queensland Urban Utilities, and Griffith University. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Howes has received funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, the Commonwealth government, the Queensland government, Queensland Urban Utilities, and Griffith University.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elnaz Torabi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Infrastructure is often seen as the main way to reduce the impacts of climate-related disasters like floods and drought. But cities are complex systems with many factors affecting their resilience.Aysin Dedekorkut-Howes, Senior Lecturer, School of Environment and Science, Griffith UniversityElnaz Torabi, Adjunct Research Fellow at the Cities Research Institute, Griffith UniversityMichael Howes, Associate Professor, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.