tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/doug-ford-53707/articlesDoug Ford – The Conversation2024-03-20T15:40:03Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2257422024-03-20T15:40:03Z2024-03-20T15:40:03ZIndigenous consultation is key to the Ring of Fire becoming Canada’s economic superpower<p>Many of the 30,000 attendees of the March 2024 <a href="https://www.pdac.ca/convention">Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada convention</a> harbour a “wild desire” to extract the mineral riches of <a href="https://www.wsj.com/story/fight-heats-up-over-canadas-ring-of-fire-where-67-billion-of-rare-minerals-is-buried-07f56a23">Canada’s $67 billion Ring of Fire</a>, in the words of Johnny Cash’s well-known song of the <a href="https://www.songfacts.com/lyrics/johnny-cash/ring-of-fire">same name</a>.</p>
<p>While some might be attracted by the desire to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/ring-of-fire-trillion-dollar-claim-1.6778551">make money</a>, others could be driven by concern for our planet and the belief that the region’s minerals can help reduce carbon emissions and support a <a href="https://www.pentictonherald.ca/spare_news/article_58422893-2145-5a9d-a077-b2410dee4b4a.html">just energy transition</a>.</p>
<p>As some Indigenous groups have pointed out, however, the construction of roads and mining in the Ring of Fire represents a significant disruption to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ring-of-fire-mining-may-not-benefit-first-nations-as-hoped-1.1374849">traditional ways of life and fragile ecosystems</a>. </p>
<p>Some environmental groups have argued that mining activities in the region could result in a net increase of carbon emissions due to the removal or severe degradation of the vital <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2022/06/canada-mining-push-puts-major-carbon-sink-and-indigenous-lands-in-the-crosshairs/">carbon sinks sustained by peat lands and trees</a>. </p>
<p>Despite the significant economic and environmental impacts surrounding the development of the Ring of Fire, this focus overlooks another crucial issue: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14662043.2017.1422418">the potential for Indigenous/non-Indigenous conflict in northern Ontario</a>.</p>
<h2>The importance of Indigenous treaties</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17449057.2022.2157105">recent study</a> on the prospects for Indigenous/non-Indigenous conflict in relation to Québec’s <a href="https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/communiques_en/2012/c20120205-nord.htm">Plan Nord</a> has compelling parallels with Ontario’s <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-ring-fire">Ring of Fire</a>. </p>
<p>Both regions are located in the mineral-rich and ecologically sensitive northern reaches of the provinces that are home to numerous Indigenous Peoples. </p>
<p>Like Ontario, Québec’s Indigenous groups have a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/oka-crisis-timeline-summer-1990-1.5631229">fraught history with government interventions</a> and are often suspicious of plans to develop natural resources. </p>
<p>Our study reveals that if an Indigenous group has signed a modern treaty, there is a reduced risk of conflict related to proposed resource developments since there’s less uncertainty surrounding land tenure rights. Given the fundamental importance of land to Indigenous Peoples, threats to these rights — perceived or real — represent an understandable source of grievance that can spark conflict.</p>
<p>Although there will likely be procurement of services from local Indigenous communities and companies in the Ring of Fire region, the vast majority of its development activities will attract non-Indigenous workers and businesses to the area. </p>
<p>Our study also demonstrates that an influx of non-Indigenous workers can produce tensions with Indigenous groups that can rapidly escalate and lead to contentious interventions by the RCMP.</p>
<h2>Uncritical media coverage</h2>
<p>Given the potential economic windfalls associated with the development of the Ring of Fire, it’s easy to assume support among local residents. Politicians at all levels have called for the rapid development of the region as part of a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-ev-battery-materials-plant-1.6519260">broader investment strategy</a> to cast Canada as a critical minerals leader.</p>
<p>These political leaders highlight the dangers of climate change to encourage companies and consumers to embrace energy sources that reduce carbon emissions. In 2020, the Canadian government announced its <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/innovation/greening-government/strategy.html">Greening Government Strategy</a> aimed at achieving net-zero operations by 2050. </p>
<p>Reducing carbon emissions is also a key element of Canada’s <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/campaign/critical-minerals-in-canada/canadian-critical-minerals-strategy.html">Critical Minerals Strategy</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, media coverage of political pronouncements regarding mineral supply chains is often uncritical.</p>
<p>Another <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2021.2020663">recent study</a> of ours reveals that media coverage in Canada in both French and English rarely includes the perspectives of Indigenous people. Instead, reporters prefer to focus on the more sensational aspects of roadblocks and standoffs, which tend to marginalize the position of Indigenous Peoples.</p>
<p>Little consideration is given to assessing the complex impacts of natural resource development projects on Indigenous communities. </p>
<p>Take the case of the quip by Ontario Premier Doug Ford that “<a href="https://www.timminspress.com/news/local-news/you-will-see-me-on-that-bulldozer">you will see me on that bulldozer</a>” to underscore his government’s pledge to build road access to the Ring of Fire.</p>
<p>Although <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2021-0033">roads can certainly generate positive impacts for local communities</a> (for example, greater mobility and connectivity; better access to public services such as health care; lower prices for consumer goods), they can also lead to negative outcomes (for example, they can degrade the natural environment, they’re expensive to build and they can serve as a route for criminal networks). </p>
<p>Roads also lead to <a href="https://irpp.org/research-studies/affordable-safe-transportation-options-remote-communities/">greater inflows of people in these previously remote communities</a>. Federal and provincial environmental impact assessments of the proposed <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/northern-road-link-project">Northern Road Link</a> to the Ring of Fire are already underway, and there’s reason to believe that a regulatory green light could dramatically transform northern Ontario’s demographics — and thus increase probabilities for future conflict.</p>
<h2>Three recommendations</h2>
<p>What can be done to prevent conflict in the Ring of Fire? We propose three recommendations.</p>
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<li><p>Respect existing treaties with Indigenous communities in the region. Where appropriate, negotiate side agreements that align with modern legal approaches to land use and property rights, thereby reducing uncertainty. Canadian governments could justify the investment in political capital to secure these agreements with Indigenous groups given the importance they’ve placed on promoting the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (<a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/declaration/index.html#:%7E:text=The%20Action%20Plan-,The%20United%20Nations%20Declaration%20on%20the%20Rights%20of%20Indigenous%20Peoples,Assent%20and%20came%20into%20force">UNDRIP</a>) and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/services/innovation/greening-government/greening-gov-fund.html">reducing carbon emissions</a> to facilitate a just energy transition.</p></li>
<li><p>The Ontario government should begin a new round of consultations with Indigenous communities and stakeholders that are inclusive, transparent, extensive and responsive. The previous round of consultations were <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ring-of-fire-first-nations-queens-park/">criticized for being rushed and perfunctory</a>. Truly consultative engagement would reduce grievances and signal to the world that sub-national governments can be global leaders in forging positive relationships with Indigenous Peoples.</p></li>
<li><p>Although the environmental impact of road construction is already mediated by regulatory <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/preparing-environmental-assessments">impact assessment legislation</a>, the effects of an influx of workers must be addressed. Federal and provincial governments — together with input from relevant Indigenous groups and municipalities — should revise existing <a href="https://wcsringoffire.ca/regional-planning-new/">urban planning</a> and <a href="https://wcsringoffire.ca/communities/">zoning by-laws</a> so that hamlets and small towns that are sure to grow do so in an economically, socially, and politically sustainable fashion. Incorporating all levels of governments in producing thoughtful urban planning measures would go a long way toward mitigating the negative impacts associated with increased migration to the region. </p></li>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-environment-minister-is-headed-for-trouble-if-ottawa-doesnt-correct-course-on-the-ring-of-fire-175616">Canada's environment minister is headed for trouble if Ottawa doesn't correct course on the Ring of Fire</a>
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<p>Critical minerals can serve as Canada’s <a href="https://utorontopress.com/9781487522452/corporate-social-responsibility-and-canada-and-x2019s-role-in-africa-and-x2019s-extractive-sectors/">superpower</a>, generating economic benefits domestically and boosting its <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/cag.12472">reputation as an environmental leader</a> in the just energy transition. </p>
<p>But if Canada fails <a href="https://opencanada.org/resources-and-canadas-first-nations/">in the governance</a> of the Ring of Fire, and ignores the real prospects for serious conflict around the projects, these critical minerals could become Canada’s kryptonite by jeopardizing reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples and tarnishing its <a href="https://opencanada.org/canadas-long-legacy-of-multilateral-sustainable-development/">reputation abroad</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/225742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Grant has received grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Badriyya Yusuf has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. She is a fellow for the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) Digital Policy Hub.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dimitrios Panagos has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew I. Mitchell receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Ontario’s Ring of Fire could make Canada a minerals superpower, but Indigenous consultation is essential to ensure doing so does not harm reconciliation or Canada’s global reputation.Andrew Grant, Associate Professor of Political Studies, Queen's University, OntarioBadriyya Yusuf, PhD Candidate/Researcher in International Relations, Queen's University, OntarioDimitrios Panagos, Associate Professor, Political Philosophy, Memorial University of NewfoundlandMatthew I. Mitchell, Associate Professor, Political Studies, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245062024-02-28T00:00:10Z2024-02-28T00:00:10ZDoug Ford’s political judicial appointments: Good or bad for justice and democracy?<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-appointing-former-staffers-judge-selection-committee-1.7127050">has defended appointing two former senior political staffers to a committee that helps select provincial judges</a>, saying he would not appoint a Liberal or New Democrat.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/doug-ford-defends-patronage-appointments-of-ex-staffers-says-he-wants-like-minded-people-selecting/article_85bcd434-d25b-11ee-b59c-bb5445f38856.html">The controversy</a> surrounds Ford’s intention to appoint “like-minded people” to <a href="https://www.ontariocourts.ca/ocj/jaac/">Ontario’s Judicial Appointments Advisory Committee (JAAC)</a>, which submits a shortlist of candidates to the Attorney General of Ontario for appointment as judges.</p>
<p>It is composed of seven lay members from the public (appointed by the government), three provincial court judges (appointed by the judiciary) and three lawyers from legal organizations (selected from lists submitted to the Attorney General).</p>
<p>Commentators expressed concern that patronage appointments to the JAAC could politicize the appointment system. Ford says he would seek to appoint “tough judges, tough JPs [Justices of the Peace] to keep guys in jail,” adding, “that’s part of democracy. You voted a party in.” </p>
<p>The Federation of Ontario Law Associations said Ford’s comments “<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-doug-ford-says-its-his-right-to-appoint-like-minded-judges/">reflect a juvenile understanding of the role of an independent judiciary</a>.” Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie warned of a “<a href="https://twitter.com/BonnieCrombie/status/1761056753767063774">U.S.-style politicization of our courts</a>” and NDP Leader Marit Stiles also warned of <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/i-am-going-to-make-sure-we-have-like-minded-judges-doug-ford-doubles-down/article_11957aa8-d4b7-11ee-a4e5-03b6529e6fd5.html">“politicization of the judiciary.”</a></p>
<p>Do these kinds of appointments add a welcome dose of democratic input into the judicial process (by the appointment of judges who reflect the elected government’s worldview)? Or do they signify unhealthy politicization of the judiciary? Both perspectives have some merit. </p>
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<h2>Judicial legitimacy</h2>
<p>The judiciary relies on public legitimacy to undergird its decisions. A number of those decisions involve a degree of discretion and are not simply mechanical applications of the law, particularly in criminal law.</p>
<p>If the judiciary strays too far from the general currents of public opinion when making such decisions, confidence in the judiciary could be eroded. Therefore, appointing individuals to the JAAC who may have links to the party in power and are sympathetic to their politics isn’t necessarily troublesome.</p>
<p>If a new government appoints judges with a somewhat different worldview than the previous government, that is acceptable and even healthy — so long as the process emphasizes legal knowledge and fairness, and not partisan considerations.</p>
<p>Part of my concern, though, is that Ford’s comments about having high-profile Conservatives on the JAAC and appointing <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/10318686/doug-ford-like-minded-judges/">“like-minded judges”</a> gives the impression that candidates affiliated with the provincial Progressive Conservatives may be favoured in the appointments process.</p>
<p>Injecting partisan considerations into the appointment process has a number of negative consequences. The appointment system can be viewed as unfair and high-quality candidates may be overlooked or even discouraged from applying. </p>
<p>While appointees linked to the party of appointment can be excellent judges, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423910000648">research suggests</a> that partisans tend to make up a higher portion of appointees perceived to be of lower quality. Making partisanship a priority <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423917000014">may reduce the potential to diversify the bench</a>. This, in turn, could reduce how representative of broader society the bench is, and limit the range of experiences that breathe life into the law. </p>
<p>These problems have been pointed out in regard to patronage in judicial appointments by the <a href="https://nationalpost.com/feature/exclusive-data-analysis-reveals-liberals-appoint-judges-who-are-party-donors">federal Liberals</a> and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/stephen-harpers-courts-how-the-judiciary-has-been-remade/article25661306/">Conservatives</a>, along with the fact that they rarely appoint individuals linked to opposition parties.</p>
<p>Even if the Ford government’s goal is not to appoint party affiliates, but simply individuals perceived to be “tough on crime,” his failure to emphasize that those judges would still be required to apply the law fairly and impartially can undermine faith in the judicial process.</p>
<h2>Assessing the impact</h2>
<p>Despite the serious reservations identified above, I remain less concerned than some others about how this will play out. Judges and lawyers compose nearly half of the JAAC, making it unlikely that unworthy candidates will be shortlisted for appointment. </p>
<p>Moreover, judicial independence does not require that the selection process be independent from government. Having a selection committee composed of members of the legal community and lay people is a positive development, as they can help emphasize quality and provide some buffer against a politicized appointment process. </p>
<p>However, the core of judicial independence requires governments not being able to punish or reward judges for their decisions once on the bench — something that is robustly protected in Ontario. Trial court decisions can also be appealed to a higher court and judges themselves are subject to an <a href="https://www.ontariocourts.ca/ocj/conduct/do-you-have-a-complaint/">independent complaints system</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, the Ford government will likely find that choosing judges who decide cases consistently in a certain direction is a difficult task. Not only do judges have guarantees of independence, but once appointed, professional norms tend to lead judges to impartially apply the law (as best they understand it) to the facts. </p>
<p>Often, the requirements of legislation or precedents will require a decision that governments (or even the judges) do not like. In cases where judges have some latitude (excluding evidence, bail, sentencing, etc.), <a href="https://digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3711&context=ohlj">research on judicial behaviour below the Supreme Court-level</a> suggests that one cannot assume former prosecutors or Conservative appointees are going to be “tough on crime” as envisioned by Premier Ford. </p>
<p>Overall, if there is some incremental change in outcomes from newly-appointed judges in line with shifts in the electorate, that is a healthy feature of our liberal democratic system of government. This holds true provided the judges were recommended by a selection committee; there is a strong system of judicial independence and judicial decisions are constrained by fair and impartial application of the law. My guess is that progressives and conservatives would both agree with that, depending on who is in power at the time.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Troy Riddell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Appointing individuals who may have links to the party in power is not necessarily troublesome, as long as the process emphasizes legal knowledge and fairness, and not partisan considerations.Troy Riddell, Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Political Science, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2176382023-11-19T13:00:24Z2023-11-19T13:00:24ZAre freeloading premiers undermining Canada’s climate strategy?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/are-freeloading-premiers-undermining-canadas-climate-strategy" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>It has been a bad few weeks for the federal government’s plans for climate action.</p>
<p>A little more than five years ago, there was a strong <a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/statements/2016/03/03/communique-canadas-first-ministers">federal-provincial consensus</a> around climate action. That consensus included a national carbon pricing system, with the federal government providing a back-stop system where provinces didn’t price carbon themselves.</p>
<p>Canada is now confronted with a very different federal-provincial landscape on climate change. Ottawa’s decision to respond to concerns about the impact of the federal carbon pricing system on heating costs for households relying on <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/trudeau-pulls-carbon-tax-from-home-heating-oil">fuel oil</a>, primarily in Atlantic Canada, has devolved into a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/carbon-tax-home-heating-1.7010767">wider debate</a> on the role of carbon pricing in Canadian climate policy. </p>
<p><a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/making-life-less-affordable-smith-among-premiers-pushing-for-halt-of-carbon-tax-1.6633250">Alberta</a>, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-premier-scott-moe-says-saskatchewan-will-stop-collecting-carbon-tax-on/">Saskatchewan</a> <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/push-justin-trudeau-on-carbon-price-cut-doug-ford-tells-liberal-mps/article_ab5f554d-e82f-583c-aabe-22d134e4744c.html">and Ontario</a> are now demanding the federal carbon price be withdrawn from all types of heating fuels, including fossil natural gas. </p>
<p>Even the government’s <a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/03/22/delivering-canadians-now">supply-and-confidence</a> allies in the NDP <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-support-conservative-motion-carbon-tax-1.7016776">voted with the Conservatives</a> in favour of suspending the application of the federal carbon charge to heating fuels altogether. </p>
<p>Adding to the federal government’s difficulties <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_202311_06_e_44369.html">is a report</a> by the Commissioner for the Environment and Sustainable Development that says Canada is unlikely to meet its 2030 emission reduction targets under the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2021/04/canadas-enhanced-nationally-determined-contribution.html">Paris climate agreement</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/introducing-the-conversations-new-climate-series-getting-to-zero-214563">Introducing The Conversation's new climate series, Getting to Zero</a>
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<h2>Liberal fragility</h2>
<p>It wasn’t supposed to be this way.</p>
<p>Five years ago, B.C., Alberta, Ontario and Québec — representing 80 per cent of Canada’s population — had carbon-pricing systems of their own already. It was expected that the federal government’s own role in carbon pricing would be limited. </p>
<p>Most provinces also had comprehensive climate change strategies, with the overall federal-provincial consensus captured in the December 2016 <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/pan-canadian-framework.html">Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change</a> (the PCF). Only Saskatchewan was a major outlier.</p>
<p>Sadly, that consensus was short-lived. It largely collapsed in the aftermath of elections in key provinces from the summer of 2018 onwards, beginning with the arrival of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-ending-cap-and-trade-1.4731954">Doug Ford’s</a> Progressive Conservative government in Ontario.</p>
<p>Since then, the provinces, with the possible exception of B.C., have become either disengaged or <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/09/01/news/dont-test-me-danielle-smith-warns-feds-ahead-climate-peace-talks">openly hostile</a> when it comes to climate action.</p>
<h2>Forced to be active</h2>
<p>The federal government’s initial response to these developments was to carry through on the PCF consensus. It enacted the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/campaigns/pollution-pricing.html">Greenhouse Gas Pollution Pricing Act</a> to provide authority for a federal back-stop carbon price in its 2018 budget. </p>
<p>The system consisted of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work.html">two components</a> — a carbon levy on heating and transportation fuels, and an output-based pricing system for industry. But, consistent with the PCF, the federal pricing system would only apply in provinces that didn’t have carbon pricing systems of their own. </p>
<p>When the newly elected governments in Ontario and Alberta dismantled their carbon pricing systems in 2018 and 2019 respectively, this meant the back-stop federal pricing system was implemented in those provinces as well. </p>
<p>The constitutional basis for the federal legislation would <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-supreme-court-ruling-on-national-carbon-pricing-means-for-the-fight-against-climate-change-157675">ultimately be upheld</a> by the Supreme Court of Canada in its March 2021 carbon-pricing reference case.</p>
<p>In deciding to apply its back-stop system in the provinces without carbon pricing systems of their own, the federal government became much more active in implementing carbon pricing than it had ever anticipated when the PCF was adopted.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-supreme-court-ruling-on-national-carbon-pricing-means-for-the-fight-against-climate-change-157675">What the Supreme Court ruling on national carbon pricing means for the fight against climate change</a>
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<h2>Ottawa goes it alone</h2>
<p>Beyond carbon pricing, the PCF and a subsequent December 2020 <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/climate-plan-overview/healthy-environment-healthy-economy.html">federal study</a> recognized the need to employ a wider range of instruments than carbon pricing alone to achieve Canada’s climate commitments.</p>
<p>Again, however, implementation of these measures has been almost entirely left to Ottawa. They include <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/managing-pollution/energy-production/fuel-regulations/clean-fuel-regulations/about.html">clean fuel</a> <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/clean-electricity-regulation.html">and electricity</a> standards, zero-emission vehicle <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/news/2022/12/proposed-regulated-sales-targets-for-zero-emission-vehicles.html">sales mandates</a>, an <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/oil-gas-emissions-cap.html">emission cap</a> on the oil and gas sector and a <a href="https://www.budget.canada.ca/2023/report-rapport/chap3-en.html">growing range</a> of subsidies and expenditures.</p>
<p>In the end, Ottawa is carrying the overwhelming load of substantive climate policy implementation through carbon pricing, regulations and subsidies. The federal-provincial sharing of the political risks and costs associated with these types of climate policies, implicit in the 2016 PCF, has vanished.</p>
<p>Instead, the federal Liberals are almost solely bearing the political costs of implementing meaningful climate policies.</p>
<p>Despite this, Ottawa has attempted to advance constructive engagement with increasingly recalcitrant, if not combative, provinces. </p>
<h2>Encouraging climate action</h2>
<p>A central focus of this effort has been the use of federal subsidies and expenditures around themes the provinces regard as important to their own economic health to try to encourage climate action.</p>
<p>Measures in the 2021-2023 federal budgets have included support for <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/programs/consultations/2021/investment-tax-credit-carbon-capture-utilization-storage.html">carbon capture, utilization and storage</a>, the <a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2019/06/18/trans-mountain-expansion-will-fund-canadas-future-clean-economy">Trans Mountain</a> pipeline, <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change-adapting-impacts-and-reducing-emissions/canadas-green-future/the-hydrogen-strategy/23080">hydrogen</a>, <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/energy-sources-distribution/nuclear-energy-uranium/canadas-small-nuclear-reactor-action-plan/21183">nuclear energy</a>, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/campaign/critical-minerals-in-canada/canadian-critical-minerals-strategy.html">critical minerals</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/canada-quebec-ev-battery-1.6982613">EV and battery manufacturing</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://sei.info.yorku.ca/files/2023/03/Hard-Paths-to-Decarbonization-December-20223.pdf?x60126">It’s questionable</a> whether many of this initiatives will have an actual impact on reducing GHG emissions.</p>
<p>The provinces have been happy to receive federal funding. But they have not reciprocated with support for the more politically challenging aspects of climate action; quite the opposite. Most have continued to respond <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/annualreports/arreports/en21/ENV_FU_ClimateChange_en21.pdf">with indifference</a> at best and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-premier-scott-moe-says-saskatchewan-will-stop-collecting-carbon-tax-on/">increased hostility</a> at worst.</p>
<p>The federal Conservatives, who are currently polling <a href="https://nanos.co/poilievre-hits-high-while-trudeau-hits-low-in-preferred-prime-minister-tracking-nanos/">well ahead</a> of the Liberals, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-pierre-poilievres-conservatives-still-dont-have-a-viable-climate-plan/">oppose carbon pricing</a> and other substantive climate policy measures, except for subsidies to industry for technology development. </p>
<p>Outside of British Columbia, there are no obvious provincial champions who might provide <a href="https://sei.info.yorku.ca/files/2019/10/July-19-Winfield-Macdonald-Working.pdf?x60126">climate policy leaderhip</a> if the current federal government is replaced by one less interested in climate action.</p>
<p>This summer’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/world-on-fire-canada-s-worst-wildfire-season-on-record-1.6946472">record wildfire season</a> and flooding in eastern Canada highlighted again the impacts of a changing climate. The time frame for effective action continues to shrink.</p>
<h2>Reducing conflict is costly</h2>
<p>The provincial antagonism towards carbon pricing and the federal government’s climate strategy regulations would seem to leave only one short-term path to federal-provincial harmony: abandoning these measures. </p>
<p>But Ottawa’s efforts <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_202311_06_e_44369.html">are widely seen as essential</a> to achieving Canada’s GHG emissions reduction commitments. </p>
<p>A better model would be for the federal government to continue to refine and carry through on its climate policies. At the same time, Ottawa could tie the support for the clean industrial strategies the provinces have welcomed to expectations of constructive provincial engagement on climate change. </p>
<p>Whether that happens remains an open question.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217638/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He is the author of the chapter on Federalism and Climate Change in the upcoming 5th Edition of Canadian Federalism (UTP)</span></em></p>A little more than five years ago, there was a strong federal-provincial consensus around climate action. With the election of several Conservative premiers since then, that consensus has vanished.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166812023-11-08T20:16:39Z2023-11-08T20:16:39ZCampus tensions and the Mideast crisis: Will Ontario and Alberta’s ‘Chicago Principles’ on university free expression stand?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/campus-tensions-and-the-mideast-crisis-will-ontario-and-albertas-chicago-principles-on-university-free-expression-stand" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Our tolerance for expression that we value often exceeds our tolerance for expression we find distasteful. Nonetheless, if there’s a place in society where the high ground on free expression should be consistently held, <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/267/monograph/book/64763">surely it’s on university campuses</a>.</p>
<p>While universities are expected to foster robust debate on a range of contentious and controversial issues, finding the right balance between free expression and protection from harm is no easy task. </p>
<p>University campuses across Canada and <a href="https://www.wgbh.org/news/education-news/2023-10-18/colleges-struggle-to-balance-free-speech-and-student-safety-amid-israel-hamas-protests">the United States have been</a> consumed by <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-hamas-palestinians-war-mood-0cebcbcf0550ee08c0d757334f69851d">the war between Hamas and Israel</a>, and there have been <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/campus-free-expression-israel-hamas-1.7010284">concerning incidents of antisemitism and Islamophobia</a>. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says antisemitic and Islamophobic incidents have left Canadians <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-antisemitism-gaza-islamophobia-1.7022244">“scared in our own streets.”</a></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/israel-hamas-war-canada-must-act-to-prevent-hate-crimes-against-muslim-and-jewish-communities-216416">Israel-Hamas war: Canada must act to prevent hate crimes against Muslim and Jewish communities</a>
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<p>In Ontario and in Alberta, university decision-making will be an important test of recent <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/january-2020/the-complexity-of-protecting-free-speech-on-campus">university policy shifts pertaining to free expression</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/defending-space-for-free-discussion-empathy-and-tolerance-on-campus-is-a-challenge-during-israel-hamas-war-216858">Defending space for free discussion, empathy and tolerance on campus is a challenge during Israel-Hamas war</a>
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<h2>Conservative campaign promises</h2>
<p>When majority Conservative governments came <a href="https://cfe.torontomu.ca/blog/2021/03/free-expression-campus-assessing-alberta-ministerial-directive">to power in Ontario in 2018 and Alberta in 2019</a>, they <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-doug-ford-says-ontario-postsecondary-schools-will-require-free-speech/#">quickly implemented campaign promises</a> to compel post-secondary institutions to create or update their free expression policies. </p>
<p>These policy shifts arose in response to the perception of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02722011.2021.1999762">a “crisis” of free expression at universities that has gained momentum</a> over the past decade.</p>
<p>They also followed high-profile expressive controversies on campus —
like <a href="https://thevarsity.ca/2016/10/24/u-of-t-letter-asks-jordan-peterson-to-respect-pronouns-stop-making-statements">the Jordan Peterson</a> and <a href="https://macleans.ca/lindsay-shepherd-wilfrid-laurier/">Lindsay Shepherd affairs</a> in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Provincial policies were intended to address what some conservatives believe is an inhospitable environment for them on campus. </p>
<p>Alberta touted its comparatively collaborative approach, and Ontario <a href="https://digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3800&context=scholarly_works">explicitly threatened funding cuts for non-compliance</a>. </p>
<p>Ontario reported <a href="https://heqco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/HEQCO-2019-Free-Speech-Report-to-Government-REVISED-3.pdf">every public college and university complied</a>, and Alberta reported every institution obliged with <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9458130/alberta-government-free-speech-post-secondary-schools/">the exception of one university (Burman University)</a> for religious reasons.</p>
<h2>‘Chicago Principles’ and free expression</h2>
<p>Alberta instructed post-secondary institutions <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/free-speech-demetrios-nicolaides-ucp-university-lethbridge-1.6735905">to endorse</a> “<a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/advanced-education-minister-promises-chicago-principles-details-coming-soon-as-students-academics-concerned-for-september-deadline">the Chicago Principles</a>,” a policy template with <a href="https://freeexpression.uchicago.edu">origins at the University of Chicago</a>, and Ontario told <a href="https://macleans.ca/education/will-new-rules-around-free-speech-on-campus-wind-up-silencing-protestors">post-secondary institutions to consult the Chicago Principles in creating or updating now-required policies</a>.</p>
<p>Key pillars of the Chicago Principles are:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>It’s up to the university community — not the administration — to make judgments about the merits of campus expression. </p></li>
<li><p>The proper response to problematic expression is argument rather than censorship. In the words of the report that spawned these principles: “The university’s fundamental commitment is to the principle that debate or deliberation may not be suppressed because the ideas put forth <a href="https://provost.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/documents/reports/FOECommitteeReport.pdf">are thought by some or even by most members of the university community to be offensive, unwise, immoral or wrong-headed</a>.” </p></li>
<li><p>Universities ought not “shield individuals from ideas and opinions they find unwelcome, disagreeable or even deeply offensive.” </p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Widest possible latitude for expression</h2>
<p>While the Chicago Principles emphasize civility and collegiality, they also argue the absence of these values ought not be invoked as a justification for expressive restrictions, even in the context of “offensive or disagreeable” expression. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/should-you-be-civil-to-a-racist-yes-but-you-should-still-call-them-out-142703">Should you be civil to a racist? Yes, but you should still call them out</a>
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<p>The principles envision the widest latitude possible for campus expression, subject only to narrow time, place and manner restrictions (to ensure the proper functioning of the university) and any applicable legal prohibitions (that is, <a href="https://lop.parl.ca/sites/PublicWebsite/default/en_CA/ResearchPublications/201825E#a3.4">criminal hate speech and anti-discrimination legislation</a>). </p>
<p>The Chicago Principles are relatively uncontroversial for an academic environment, even if they reflect <a href="https://campusfreespeechguide.pen.org/the-law/the-basics">American laws that are much more tolerant of harmful expression</a>.</p>
<p>But applying them to a Canadian context is easier said than done. Although institutional policies now reflect them in some form, there is still some variability between them. Furthermore, most expression that sparks campus controversy exists in a grey area between the controversial and the potentially discriminatory. </p>
<h2>Challenges responding at universities</h2>
<p>Following Hamas’s attack <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-humanitarian-aid-hamas-attack-war-united-nations-a068d629255e803849ad5c78387380c8">on Israeli civilians and Israel’s siege of Gaza</a>, university administrations have issued statements <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9458130/alberta-government-free-speech-post-secondary-schools">condemning discriminatory forms of</a> expression and intimidation. </p>
<p>In response, some faculty and students have questioned administrations and are accusing them of bias and silencing dissent. </p>
<p>At York University, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/york-university-israel-hamas-statement-update-1.7004246#">the administration gave student unions an ultimatum</a> in response to an open letter that it says has been widely interpreted as a “<a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-head-of-york-student-union-wont-retract-statement-on-hamas-attack-says">justification for attacking civilians and a call to violence</a>.” </p>
<p>As a result of such controversies, the reasonable limits for expression are being redefined in real time. </p>
<h2>Disagreement on expressive harms</h2>
<p>Within academic communities, there is <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/canadian-journal-of-political-science-revue-canadienne-de-science-politique/article/abs/expressive-freedom-on-campus-and-the-conceptual-elasticity-of-harm/6617A5755E9BAF0AC14077947D551819">intense disagreement</a> about which forms of expressive harms ought to result in expressive restrictions.</p>
<p>To complicate matters further, universities have significant discretion in their decision-making in the context of expressive restrictions. It’s subject to a deferential standard of “reasonableness” in administrative law, and Canada’s strongest protection for free expression — <a href="https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/csj-sjc/rfc-dlc/ccrf-ccdl/check/art2b.html#">Section 2(b) of the Charter of Rights</a> — scarcely applies at all. </p>
<h2>Legal remedies, questions of university mission</h2>
<p>Universities are faced with the dilemma of what to do about expression that may not be discriminatory as a point of law. </p>
<p>Universities can exercise their additional discretion and restrict expression if they believe it compromises their mission (facilitating an inhospitable environment) or rely solely upon the reasonable limits established by Canadian jurisprudence. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/free-speech-on-campus-means-universities-must-protect-the-dignity-of-all-students-124526">Free speech on campus means universities must protect the dignity of all students</a>
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<p>Each option has costs and benefits. In the context of polarizing issues, university decision-making will rarely satisfy everyone. </p>
<p>Given redoubled efforts to protect expression in Ontario and Alberta, universities arguably bear the burden of showing that any expression they restrict at least appears to cross a legal threshold. </p>
<h2>Conservatives embracing restrictions?</h2>
<p>However, the dilemma for some conservative politicians, parties and pundits who have insisted before now that free expression is imperilled on campus is more daunting. </p>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government recently took the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/sarah-jama-censor-1.6997689#">extraordinary step of barring Sarah Jama, an NDP member of the Ontario legislature, from speaking in the legislature</a> in response to her criticisms of Israel. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sarah-jamas-censure-making-people-feel-uncomfortable-is-part-of-the-job-216704">Sarah Jama's censure: Making people feel uncomfortable is part of the job</a>
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<p>In response to campus reactions to the conflict in the Middle East, the <em>National Post</em> recently said “<a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/reaction-to-hamas-attack-on-campus-shows-canadian-universities-are-in-desperate-need-of-fixing">universities need to be fixed</a>,” including “reprimanding the most egregious professors.” </p>
<h2>Will calls for censorship grow?</h2>
<p>With no sign of campus unrest relenting, calls for censorship may grow. </p>
<p>In theory, compelling universities to conform <a href="https://www.wgbh.org/news/education-news/2023-10-18/colleges-struggle-to-balance-free-speech-and-student-safety-amid-israel-hamas-protests">to the Chicago Principles</a> means they bear a greater obligation to protect expression that is within the bounds of law. </p>
<p>But given the backlash and legitimate concern about discrimination and hate, how universities will navigate this fraught time is far from certain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216681/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dax D'Orazio receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He is affiliated with the Centre for Constitutional Studies and Centre for Free Expression. </span></em></p>In Ontario and in Alberta, university decisions about balancing free expression and protection from harm will be an important test of recent university policy shifts pertaining to free expression.Dax D'Orazio, Peacock Postdoctoral Fellow in Pedagogy, Department of Political Studies, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2167042023-11-06T22:23:20Z2023-11-06T22:23:20ZSarah Jama’s censure: Making people feel uncomfortable is part of the job<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/sarah-jamas-censure-making-people-feel-uncomfortable-is-part-of-the-job" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Sarah Jama, a member of the Ontario legislature for Hamilton Centre, recently faced <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/hamilton-mpp-kicked-out-of-ndp-caucus-censured-by-legislature">censure</a> from Doug Ford’s Conservative government. She was also <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/what-to-know-about-sarah-jama-s-censure-and-ejection-from-ndp-1.6614953">removed from the Ontario NDP caucus</a> by her own party.</p>
<p>The NDP’s disciplinary response and the removal of her from caucus cannot be separated from the current climate. It is right in the middle of a nationwide <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/canadian-heritage/campaigns/combatting-islamophobia-canada/canada-special-representative-combatting-islamophobia/statement-meeting-prime-minister-canada-rise-islamophobia-protecting-civil-liberties.html">Islamophobic backlash</a>, where scores of others are also experiencing a wide range of institutional discipline. </p>
<p>Jama’s <a href="https://twitter.com/SarahJama_/status/1711808190889746854">social media statement, released three days after the Hamas attack on Israel</a>, sparked the disciplinary action. In her statement, she called on Canada to “hold true to its history of peacemaking and refrain from military intervention.” She referred to Israel’s siege of Gaza and subsequent bombardment. She also referred to an analysis by the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories calling Israel’s occupation apartheid. Her statement left out any mention of the Hamas attack on Israeli people on Oct. 7. Jama posted an apology for her omission on social media about 24 hours later and condemned Hamas. </p>
<p>But this wasn’t enough for the Progressive Conservative government, who put forward a motion the next week to censure her.</p>
<h2>Controversy is nothing new</h2>
<p>For Jama, a Black disabled Muslim woman of Somali heritage, controversy is nothing new. </p>
<p>As Jama has said: <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/hamilton-activist-sarah-jama-i-make-people-feel-uncomfortable-sometimes/article_47473f58-3b15-58ea-93ab-d0f1bb916230.html">“Mak[ing] people feel uncomfortable”</a> has always been part of her work.</p>
<p>For example, before her role as a member of provincial parliament (MPP), Jama had been actively organizing in Hamilton, addressing issues of <a href="https://breachmedia.ca/sarah-jama-peter-wiesner-hamilton-byelection-police/">homelessness, racial justice and disability rights</a> where she clearly ruffled more than a few feathers.</p>
<p>On the eve of receiving the <a href="https://twitter.com/YWCA_Hamilton/status/1499558902907736064?lang=en">2022 Woman of Distinction award</a>, Jama was gearing to face a police officer <a href="https://breachmedia.ca/sarah-jama-peter-wiesner-hamilton-byelection-police/">who had charged her with assault — a charge that was later withdrawn</a>. </p>
<h2>Climate of Islamophobia</h2>
<p>But in this case, the issue did not go away. Jama’s current story cannot be separated from the current surge in anti-Muslim racism.</p>
<p>To understand this surge, it’s crucial to recognize the influence of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.13169/islastudj.7.2.0232">“Islamophobia Industry”</a> in Canada. Sociologist Jasmin Zine, a noted authority on Islamophobia, delineates this industry as a conglomerate of media outlets, political figures, far-right, white nationalist groups and Islamophobia influencers and ideologues, among others, fostering an environment where harmful stereotypes of Muslims as innately provocative and violent become commonplace. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-islamophobia-and-anti-palestinian-racism-are-manufactured-through-disinformation-216119">How Islamophobia and anti-Palestinian racism are manufactured through disinformation</a>
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<p>This racialization lumps more than a billion Muslims into an undifferentiated mass, exploited by public discourse that sensationalizes violent narratives, devoid of geopolitical context or history. </p>
<p>This disregard of complexity, diversity and historical context in the operation of anti-Muslim racism means violence perpetuated by the likes of Hamas comes to be conflated with all Palestinians, all Arabs and by extension all Muslims. </p>
<p>This simple racist arithmetic, or Islamophobic math, produces horrific outcomes like the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/us/chicago-muslim-boy-stabbing-investigation/index.html">targeted killing of a six-year-old Palestinian-American Muslim boy in Illinois</a>.</p>
<p>Here in Canada, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/more-funding-laws-can-stop-anti-muslim-online-hate-from-causing-violence-senators-1.6628242">according to a Statistics Canada report</a>, hate crimes in general are up. Those against Muslims rose 71 per cent in 2021 from the previous year. And the National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM), has reported a <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CywoRQxIPc9/?igshid=MTc4MmM1YmI2Ng==">sharp spike in the number of reports they have received regarding Islamophobic incidents</a> these past few weeks (for example, instead of one report per day as they had previously, they are now receiving 13). </p>
<p>Additionally, Jama is a Black woman and it’s also essential to consider the intersecting and uneven nature of racism. According to the 2023 Black Muslim Initiative (BMI) report, written in collaboration with Toronto Metropolitan University, Black Muslim communities in Canada <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/diversity/news-events/2023/02/socio-economic-review-of-the-black-muslim-population-in-canada/">consistently endure the highest levels of discrimination and exclusion across various sectors</a>, including employment and housing. </p>
<h2>Examples of anti-Black Islamophobia</h2>
<p>Navigating <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-black-history-month-muslim-canadians-1.5897571">the multiple forms of jeopardy faced by Black Muslim women</a> means simultaneously surviving both interpersonal and structural anti-Blackness and Islamophobia. </p>
<p>Anti-Black, hate-motivated Islamophobia is often directed at women. Here are some examples: </p>
<ul>
<li>Dec. 2021: <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7721850/hate-crime-alberta-attacks-black-muslim-women/">two Black Muslim women wearing hijabs</a> were assaulted while shopping in Edmonton. </li>
<li>Dec. 2021: a young Black Muslim woman was attacked at an Edmonton transit station.</li>
<li>March 2021: A <a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/hate-crime-unit-investigating-attack-on-2-muslim-girls-in-calgary-park-1.5356803">Black Muslim teenage girl in Calgary had her hijab torn off</a>, while suffering a violent physical assault. </li>
<li>June 2023: A <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/olive-garden-attack-winnipeg-muslim-community-1.6909638">Black Muslim woman was stabbed while serving patrons at an Olive Garden</a> in Winnipeg. </li>
</ul>
<p>Feminist geographer Délice Mugabo explains: <a href="https://doi.org/10.5749/jcritethnstud.2.2.0159">“anti-Black Islamophobia” is the exclusion of Black people from the category of the human and Muslims from the category of the citizen</a>. Consequently, fidelity to the nation, and constitution as a person is readily up for interrogation. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/csis-targeting-of-canadian-muslims-reveals-the-importance-of-addressing-institutional-islamophobia-199559">CSIS targeting of Canadian Muslims reveals the importance of addressing institutional Islamophobia</a>
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<h2>The trouble ‘they’ cause</h2>
<p>The swift dismissal of people like Jama reaffirms the interlocking dimensions of oppression. Jama’s censure reveals how a Black woman’s assertion of self is commonly read as troublesome: <a href="https://hbr.org/2022/01/the-angry-black-woman-stereotype-at-work">“hostile, aggressive, overbearing.”</a></p>
<p>In the United States, the only Black Muslim woman in Congress is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/02/house-republicans-vote-out-ilhan-omar-foreign-affairs-committee">Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat, who faced censorship and removal from the House of Representatives foreign affairs committee</a> for her comments on Israel last year.</p>
<p>In practice, this double jeopardy leaves Black Muslim communities suspended, saddled with heightened vulnerabilities, and often erased from dominant discourses surrounding both anti-Blackness and Islamophobia. </p>
<p>And living as a suspended community means being the first to go, the first to be discarded. There are few grounds available to provoke so called “trouble.” Trouble is disorder, disturbance, violation of expectations, norms and values. As a Black Muslim, you’re already seen as trouble incarnated.</p>
<h2>Interconnected liberation</h2>
<p>However, just as oppression is interconnected, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2023/nov/05/pro-palestine-protests-take-place-in-cities-around-the-world-video">so is liberation</a>. Jama made her <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/independent-mpp-sarah-jama-addresses-massive-pro-palestinian-protest-in-toronto-we-must-put-an/article_0d6fe1fd-9182-54a1-b964-e3636f1bd523.html">first public appearance at a peace protest this past weekend in Toronto</a>. She addressed tens of thousands of protesters demanding a ceasefire in Gaza.</p>
<p>The on-going <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2023/nov/05/pro-palestine-protests-take-place-in-cities-around-the-world-video">global demonstrations</a> and <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/grand-central-terminal-gaza-ceasefire-rally/">actions</a> are proving to be the grounds where we can bring our troubles, cries, joy and pain. </p>
<p>Hundreds of activists and academics <a href="https://www.thespec.com/news/hamilton-region/hundreds-of-activists-academics-sign-le%5B%E2%80%A6%5D-sarah-jama/article_20d412e7-30b2-57dc-b468-686137f4eb8d.html">have signed a letter supporting Jama</a> and she has said she will announce her plans to fight her censure on Nov. 14.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216704/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nadiya Nur Ali has received funding from The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). She is also affiliated with the National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM). </span></em></p>The response to Sarah Jama’s comments on Gaza highlights the anti-Black and Islamophobic sentiments within Canadian politics.Nadiya N. Ali, Assistant Professor, Sociology, Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141782023-09-25T21:14:55Z2023-09-25T21:14:55ZOntario’s Greenbelt is safe for now, but will the scandal alter Doug Ford’s course?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ontarios-greenbelt-is-safe-for-now-but-will-the-scandal-alter-doug-fords-course" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-stag-and-doe-integrity-commissioner-1.6974058">extraordinary reversal</a> on his decision to <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-to-cut-greenbelt-land-to-make-way-for-at-least-50-000-new-homes-1.6139646">open the Greater Toronto Area’s Greenbelt for housing development</a> flows from two colossal political miscalculations. </p>
<p>The first was failing to recognize the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontarios-greenbelt">Greenbelt, established by the previous Liberal government in 2005</a>, had acquired an iconic status in the minds of residents of the region. </p>
<p>The Greenbelt was based on earlier <a href="https://escarpment.org/planning/niagara-escarpment-plan/">Niagara Escarpment</a> and <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/oak-ridges-moraine-conservation-plan-2017.pdf">Oak Ridges Moraine conservation plans</a>, both adopted by Progressive Conservative governments. It was deeply embedded in municipal plans throughout the region.</p>
<p>Over time, the Greenbelt <a href="https://www.greenbelt.ca/learn">became a symbol</a> in Ontario of efforts to protect prime farmland and key natural heritage sites from the region’s sprawling urban growth. </p>
<p>The government, however, refused to let go of the idea of opening the Greenbelt to development despite a <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/Greenbelt_en.pdf">complete lack of evidence</a> that the land was required to meet the region’s housing needs. </p>
<p>According to the province’s integrity commissioner, it then allowed a “<a href="https://www.oico.on.ca/web/default/files/public/Commissioners%20Reports/Report%20Re%20Minister%20Clark%20-%20August%2030%2C%202023.pdf">madcap process</a>” to unfold around the actual removal of lands, which turned out to offer the potential for billions in profits to well-connected developers.</p>
<h2>Ford’s future now in doubt?</h2>
<p>The second blunder was to try to <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-doug-ford-doubling-down-amid-ontarios-greenbelt-scandal-212917">double down</a> on the Greenbelt removal decision in the aftermath of harshly critical reports from both the province’s auditor general and integrity commissioner.</p>
<p>Even after the resignations of the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/steve-clark-resigns-greenbelt-1.6956402">housing minister</a> and his <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-housing-amato-resigns-1.6944225">chief of staff</a> at the height of the scandal, Ford wouldn’t back down. </p>
<p>It took more than a month of a series of damning and embarrassing news reports — leading to the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/kaleed-rasheed-resigns-greenbelt-ford-1.6973107">resignation of yet another cabinet minister</a>, Public and Business Service Delivery Minister Kaleed Rasheed — for Ford to relent.</p>
<p>But the political damage suffered by the government through this period is starting <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/pc-support-is-sliding-as-greenbelt-fallout-continues-poll-suggests/article_7911f9cc-a1ae-5a45-bc57-e4838747e306.html">to seem profound</a> and the fallout is certain to continue:</p>
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<li> <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/rcmp-probing-ford-government-s-handling-of-the-greenbelt-1.6530698">The RCMP</a> is considering an investigation into the Greenbelt deal-making;</li>
<li> Rasheed has <a href="https://www.thetrillium.ca/news/politics/cabinet-minister-resigns-exits-pc-caucus-after-giving-watchdog-wrong-info-about-vegas-trip-with-developer-7575532">admitted to misleading</a> the integrity commissioner under oath during inquiries into the Greenbelt decision; </li>
<li> The auditor general is planning a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-82-here-and-now-toronto/clip/16002583-auditor-general-bonnie-lysyk-breaks-findings-greenbelt-report">follow-up</a> audit on the whole episode;</li>
<li> Freedom-of-information requests from the media, and leaks from other sources, are likely to lead to further revelations in the weeks and months to come.</li>
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<p>Although the next provincial election is nearly three years away, the Greenbelt scandal has raised <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/doug-ford-can-t-save-himself-even-by-sparing-the-greenbelt/article_23efd9de-cef6-53b9-a591-bcbaeeca340f.html">serious questions about the viability</a> of Ford’s own future as premier.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-fords-greenbelt-scandal-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-his-years-in-power-211629">Doug Ford's Greenbelt scandal: The beginning of the end of his years in power?</a>
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<h2>Greenbelt is out of the woods</h2>
<p>Ironically, one almost certain outcome of the entire episode is that it’s probably ended any possibility of Ford’s intention to dismantle the Greenbelt.</p>
<p>The political fallout so far almost ensures no politician in Ontario will make similar moves against the Greenbelt for a generation or more. </p>
<p>The Greenbelt scandal has also vividly illustrated how badly the province has mishandled <a href="https://thepointer.com/article/2023-04-24/experts-say-pcs-proposed-bill-97-is-a-sprawl-inducing-full-frontal-assault-on-ontario-agriculture">housing and development issues</a>. </p>
<p>The province’s land-use planning system — including the Greenbelt and growth plans for the Greater Toronto Area — was once the subject of <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/86986/ontario-celebrates-second-major-award-for-growth-plan">international acclaim</a> for how it managed intense growth pressures while protecting farmland, housing affordability and natural heritage areas. </p>
<p>The Greenbelt debacle has demonstrated how that system <a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-at-5-years-selling-out-ontarios-future-to-please-the-well-connected-207194">had degenerated</a> into an instrument wielded by the province to serve the wishes of well-connected developers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-at-5-years-selling-out-ontarios-future-to-please-the-well-connected-207194">Doug Ford at 5 years: Selling out Ontario's future to please the well-connected</a>
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<h2>Undoing the damage</h2>
<p>A complete <a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-reverses-greenbelt-plans-construction-would-never-have-provided-affordable-housing-214138">overhaul of the land-use planning system</a> is now needed to undo the damage done by the Ford government, restore the system’s credibility and address the province’s housing needs effectively. <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-ontarios-housing-plan-been-built-on-a-foundation-of-evidentiary-sand-198133">Evidence backed by expert research</a>, reason and basic democratic principles of transparency and accountability all need to be returned to the system. </p>
<p>Although the Greenbelt appears to be safe for the time being, attention now needs to turn to the government’s handling of the redevelopment of existing urban areas, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eft5FOlUZmg">a theme Ford highlighted</a> in his speech reversing the Greenbelt removals. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Doug Ford announces his Greenbelt reversal at a news conference. (CTV News)</span></figcaption>
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<p>So far the government’s approach to “<a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/transit-oriented-communities">transit-oriented communities</a>” — ideally communities developed within a short distance of transit lines — has been to declare these areas free-for-all zones where the development industry can do as it wishes. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/giving-developers-free-rein-isnt-the-solution-to-the-gtha-housing-challenges-176128">Predictably</a>, the results of that approach in <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-developers-propose-taller-towers-for-torontos-midtown/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links">midtown and downtown Toronto</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-ministerial-zoning-orders-1.6421555">Richmond Hill, Markham</a> <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/mississauga-lakeview-village-mzo-1.6844018">and Mississauga</a> have been an overwhelming focus on high-rise condominium developments, a lack of infrastructure and services of all forms, no mixing of uses (for example, significant new employment locations) or housing types, no attention paid to affordability and significant losses of existing affordable rental housing to “redevelopment.”</p>
<p>This is the polar opposite of the “complete communities” and urban development centres envisioned in the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/growth-plan-greater-golden-horseshoe-2006">2006 growth plan to guide urban redevelopment</a> that accompanied the announcement of the Greenbelt.</p>
<h2>Challenges ahead</h2>
<p>The province has trampled on efforts by municipalities and communities to support more development along transit lines. The Ford government has apparently been intent on dismantling the <a href="https://ero.ontario.ca/notice/019-6813">growth plan</a> as well as the Greenbelt.</p>
<p>The challenges facing the Greater Toronto Area are multi-dimensional and complex, including:</p>
<p>— <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/social-innovation/Programs/Affordable_Housing_Visual_Systems_Map_Oxford.pdf">Housing needs</a>, particularly at the lower end of the income scale;</p>
<p>— Structural economic transitions and <a href="https://ppforum.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/JobPolarizationInCanada-PPF-April2021-EN.pdf">increasingly polarized</a> labour markets;</p>
<p>— <a href="https://trca.ca/climate-change-impacts-gta/">The impacts</a> of a changing climate;</p>
<p>— A <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/news/city-of-toronto-staff-report-says-toronto-faces-an-unprecedented-financial-crisis-and-the-time-is-now-for-all-orders-of-government-to-step-up-to-fulfil-their-roles/">fiscal crisis</a>, particularly for the city of Toronto, driven in large part by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-mayors-slam-ford-download-1.5117718">provincial downloading</a>.</p>
<p>The Greenbelt fiasco has been an enormous distraction from these challenges — and it remains doubtful that the Ford government can significantly change its approach to governance to address them effectively.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214178/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He was involved in the development of the original Greenbelt and Growth Plans, including serving on the Ministerial Advisory Committee on the implementation of the Places to Grow plan. </span></em></p>The Greenbelt fiasco has been an enormous distraction from the challenges facing the Greater Toronto Area — and it’s doubtful the Ford government will significantly change its approach.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141852023-09-22T21:44:50Z2023-09-22T21:44:50ZOntario’s Greenbelt: A step in the right direction, but is it enough to protect biodiversity?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ontarios-greenbelt-a-step-in-the-right-direction-but-is-it-enough-to-protect-biodiversity" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Doug Ford has announced that he’s reversing his controversial plan to remove lands from Ontario’s Greenbelt, following a massive public outcry and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/kaleed-rasheed-resigns-greenbelt-ford-1.6973107">the resignation of two of his ministers</a>.</p>
<p>The reasons Ford cited included his government’s lack of due process and the fact that his original plan left “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-stag-and-doe-integrity-commissioner-1.6974058">too much room for some people to benefit over others</a>.”</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-reverses-greenbelt-plans-construction-would-never-have-provided-affordable-housing-214138">Doug Ford reverses Greenbelt plans: Construction would never have provided affordable housing</a>
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<p>Nowhere in his address did he mention the reason the Greenbelt was established in the first place — to protect some of the <a href="https://www.greenbelt.ca/learn">most biologically rich ecosystems in Canada</a> from being destroyed by urban expansion — or how his plans had been at odds with this aim from the start. </p>
<p>Although Ford has now restored his broken promise not to touch the Greenbelt, he remains adamant that developing the Greenbelt would be good for Ontarians. This hypocrisy underscores that what is required now, more than ever, is more protection for our planet, and not less.</p>
<h2>Not-so-careful consideration</h2>
<p>The lands protected by the Greenbelt were not chosen at random. They were <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/as-a-creator-of-the-greenbelt-i-can-assure-you-it-is-no-scam/article_908968a7-3f73-572e-a70f-c23ec850f93c.html">carefully selected after a long consultation process</a> that included academics, conservation authorities and local citizens. </p>
<p>Experts from a long list of fields like hydrology, ecology, climatology and more contributed their knowledge to this process. As a result, the Greenbelt is made up of ecologically significant areas like wetlands, forests and important wildlife corridors.</p>
<p>Protecting these types of environments is not simply about protecting nature for nature’s sake. The range of ecosystems protected by the Greenbelt <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-biodiversity-why-the-proposed-changes-to-ontarios-greenbelt-matter-211719">provide a host of services that we heavily rely on</a>. Things like erosion protection, flood protection and climate regulation to name a few.</p>
<p>Ford’s plan to simply swap lands in and out of the Greenbelt was made without this same type of careful consideration. In fact, some of the lands that were slated to lose their protections <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-greenbelt-farmland-wetlands-floodplains/">contain important ecosystems like wetlands and floodplains</a>, and are home to a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9806793/ontario-ford-government-greenbelt-changes-at-risk-species/">number of species at risk</a>.</p>
<p>At least three of the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-greenbelt-farmland-wetlands-floodplains/">parcels of land that were proposed for removal contain wetlands designated as “provincially significant”</a>, meaning that these are some of the <a href="https://www.kawarthaconservation.com/en/resources/significant-wetlands.pdf">highest functioning and most valuable wetlands in the province</a>. Wetlands soak up water, carbon and other pollutants, protecting against floods and providing both clean air and water.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/losing-the-natural-world-comes-with-major-risks-for-your-super-fund-and-bank-198669">Losing the natural world comes with major risks for your super fund and bank</a>
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<p>Several other parcels that were to be removed are <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9806793/ontario-ford-government-greenbelt-changes-at-risk-species/">home to species at risk</a>, such as <a href="https://www.natureconservancy.ca/en/what-we-do/resource-centre/featured-species/birds/barn-owl.html">barn owls</a> who help to keep the province’s mouse population under control, Blanding’s turtles which live in only <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/blanding-s-turtle">limited regions in the northeast</a>, and songbirds like the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/eastern-meadowlark">eastern meadowlark</a>.</p>
<p>Many of the parcels are <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-greenbelt-farmland-wetlands-floodplains/">part of what are called “natural heritage systems”</a>. These are systems of <a href="https://ontarionature.org/campaigns/natural-heritage-systems-planning/">interconnected natural lands</a> designed to promote biodiversity by facilitating the movement of species between different regions.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Footage of the press conference where Premier Doug Ford announced a reversal of the province’s Greenbelt plans.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Simply put, a compelling argument can be made that the benefits of these lands in terms of their ecological services far outweighs the benefits they may provide as residential land — especially considering Ontario has plenty of room for housing elsewhere.</p>
<p>From an ecological standpoint, Ford’s decision to leave these protections in place is a good one, aligned with the expert advice used to form the Greenbelt in the first place. Although it is disappointing, to say the least, that this did not seem to factor into his decision whatsoever.</p>
<h2>Critical state of biodiversity</h2>
<p>This decision comes just days after world-renowned scientists published an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458">evaluation on the state of the Earth’s natural systems</a> — the systems that provide us with the essential life-supporting services that have allowed humankind to evolve and thrive.</p>
<p>Biodiversity <a href="https://theconversation.com/global-biodiversity-why-the-proposed-changes-to-ontarios-greenbelt-matter-211719">underpins every biological process in nature</a>, creating resilience and ensuring the continued functioning of these natural systems. Protecting ecologically rich areas like the Greenbelt bolsters biodiversity and in turn, the Earth’s life support systems.</p>
<p>However, this latest assessment paints a dire picture of the current state of global biodiversity. </p>
<p>While natural systems can handle a certain level of human interference, beyond a certain point, they lose their ability to bounce back. It appears biodiversity has now been eroded to the point where there is a high risk that it will not be able to continue to support the life-sustaining ecosystems we rely on. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-planetary-boundaries-and-why-should-we-care-213762">What are ‘planetary boundaries’ and why should we care?</a>
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<p>Ford’s decision to leave the Greenbelt intact is a big win for biodiversity in Ontario and is certainly a step in the right direction, even if done for the wrong reasons.</p>
<p>However, it’s becoming increasingly clear that this is not enough. We need to step up environmental protections across Canada and the world to ensure that future generations can continue to rely upon all that biodiversity provides. </p>
<p>In short — we desperately need more Greenbelts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214185/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Loog receives funding from CIRAIG, the International Reference Center for Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainable Transition and its industrial partners.</span></em></p>In reversing his decision on the Greenbelt, Doug Ford made no mention of ecology or biodiversity, the very things the Greenbelt was created to protect.Kathryn Loog, PhD Candidate, Industrial Engineering, Polytechnique MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2141382023-09-22T00:59:08Z2023-09-22T00:59:08ZDoug Ford reverses Greenbelt plans: Construction would never have provided affordable housing<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/doug-ford-reverses-greenbelt-plans-construction-would-never-have-provided-affordable-housing" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford has announced a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-stag-and-doe-integrity-commissioner-1.6974058">reversal of his government’s decision to allow developers to construct residential properties on parts of Ontario’s Greenbelt</a>. While this is a positive outcome for an ongoing saga, let’s be clear: paving Ontario’s Greenbelt was never actually about providing affordable housing. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford announces a reversal of his government’s plans to allow housing development on parts of the Greenbelt on Sept. 21 in Niagara Falls, Ont.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Sure, there would have been houses where farms once stood, adding to the province’s overall supply. While housing experts would agree that our housing supply needs to grow as our population grows, we also need to ask questions: What kind of housing do we need? For whom? And where? </p>
<p>Once we expand the housing debate beyond a need to build, it becomes clear that building on the Greenbelt is neither necessary, nor a solution.</p>
<h2>More doesn’t necessarily mean affordable</h2>
<p>First, much of the housing that gets built on fringes of our urban regions is not in any way affordable. While <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/article-toronto-area-lot-sizes-continue-to-shrink/">suburban plot sizes are smaller</a> than in the 1960s, houses have become bigger, meaning they are not cheap to buy, even in more modest developments. </p>
<p>But it’s not just new subdivisions that get built when rural land is turned into houses. Beyond Brampton, towards Guelph and Waterloo Region, there are enormous mansions on multi-acre lots that most families would struggle to afford. These huge properties are becoming typical in expansion of the Greater Toronto Area.</p>
<p>Second, while some housing in the suburbs might be cheaper than downtown, the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/commuting-costs-eat-up-house-savings-in-many-gta-communities-study-finds/article_0845a9ca-d99e-5727-8d60-eb5b370bc1cc.html">extra commuting costs of living far from jobs</a> adds to a household’s expenses and negates much of the cost-saving of buying a less expensive house further away. This kind of housing policy locks generations of Ontarians into costly car-dependency; it also costs the government more to maintain and expand highway infrastructure to meet this suburban growth.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="aerial view of a suburban neighbourhood bordered by farmland" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549692/original/file-20230921-23-kxb231.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The cost of providing and servicing infrastructure to new suburban developments is much higher than for existing urban areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Related to this, it costs much more for municipalities to service these new communities compared to housing built within existing urban areas. This is not just the initial costs of <a href="https://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/03/05/sprawl-costs-the-public-more-than-twice-as-much-as-compact-development">preparing and providing services</a> (water, electricity, roads) to new subdivisions — <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26150800">annual operating costs to service sprawling neighbourhoods on the edges of cities is much higher than denser and more central neighbourhoods</a>. Someone has to pay for <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/urban-expansion-costs-menard-memo-1.6193429">these extra costs</a>, either through higher property taxes or poorer services.</p>
<p>Fourth, there are many sites already zoned for new subdivisions. While some are being developed, others are simply being held by developers until the time is right to maximize their profits. In other words, there’s already plenty of land, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-caledon-mzo-greenbelt-1.6946441">in places such as Caledon</a>, where new population growth can be accommodated.</p>
<p>Finally, several <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/mapping-hamilton-s-vacant-spaces-helps-paint-a-picture-for-the-future/article_b7e510a3-6d13-5667-8a7f-259efc4fdce5.html">studies</a> have pointed out that there is more than enough room <a href="https://www.ssho.ca/">within the existing urban footprint</a> to accommodate expected population growth. It requires denser, smarter and more creative approaches, but there is <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/building-a-denser-inclusive-hamilton/article_5654dbf2-c677-5783-bc37-f01007e63f74.html">plenty of land to develop and redevelop</a> within our cities. This removes the need to destroy precious farmland and other natural areas that are vital to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18115763">our health, economy, food supply and well being</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/southern-ontario-housing-farmland/">Southern Ontario needs a lot more housing</a>. But it needs genuinely affordable housing for low- moderate- and middle-income households. This housing supply rarely, if ever, gets built when farmland is lost.</p>
<h2>Solving the housing crisis</h2>
<p>Expanding our urban areas into the Greenbelt will not solve the housing crisis. So, what would a provincial policy that was genuinely focused on making housing more affordable look like?</p>
<p>To start, it would focus not just on adding new supply, but ensuring that existing housing remains affordable. Thousands of apartments that were affordable to low- and moderate-income households <a href="https://chec-ccrl.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Updated-Analysis-on-Housing-Erosion-from-2021-Census-Steve-Pomeroy.pdf">have been lost to processes such as renoviction and demoviction</a>.</p>
<p>The most important aspect to help keep existing housing affordable is <a href="https://www.ucpress.edu/book/9780520386228/shaking-up-the-city">rent control</a>. But one of Ford’s first acts as premier was to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/the-ford-government-removed-rent-control-on-new-units-a-year-later-tenants-are-reporting/article_aee5f429-cba9-5f07-a7ac-1387a7a59730.html">abolish rent control on any new unit first occupied on or after Nov. 15, 2018</a>. That means that tenants who live in the thousands of condo towers that have been popping up since then can be subject to <a href="https://nowtoronto.com/news/toronto-sisters-fight-for-rent-control-after-7000-monthly-rent-increase/">whatever kind of rent increase</a> their landlords want to charge.</p>
<p>Tenants who reside in buildings first occupied prior to this still enjoy some degree of rent control. But the previous Progressive Conservative government, under Mike Harris, <a href="https://doi.org/10.60082/0829-3929.1059">also got rid of vacancy control</a>, meaning that when a tenant leaves, landlords can raise the rent to whatever they like. This not only creates a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2017.04.011">huge incentive</a> for landlords to evict sitting tenants, but has also led to an erosion of the housing supply that is affordable to tenants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="four cranes and buildings under construction" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/549693/original/file-20230921-23-3m9hoz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The condo boom in Ontario has not translated into the availability of affordable housing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<h2>The role of policy</h2>
<p>How can the provincial government help shape the kind of new supply that we need? The provincial government has taken some initiative to <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/more-homes-built-faster">permit up to four units on residential plots of land previously zoned only for one single family home</a>. However, the evidence is mixed as to whether this <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2023/08/15/what-really-created-minneapolis-apartment-boom">produces this kind of housing</a> (at the appropriate price) that households need.</p>
<p>We need to think differently about the <a href="https://theconversation.com/publicly-owned-land-should-be-used-for-affordable-housing-not-sold-to-private-developers-198654">public land</a> that is owned by everyone in Ontario. We used to build genuinely affordable housing on public land; the <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/partners/advmoderncity2016/why-torontos-st-lawrence-neighbourhood-is-a-model-for-affordable-housing/article35872718/">St. Lawrence neighbourhood</a> in downtown Toronto remains the <a href="https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/127154/1/Hulchanski%201990%20Planning%20the%20St%20Lawrence%20Neighbourhood%20-%20Chap%203%20-%20Learning%20from%20St%20Lawrence.pdf">gold standard</a> of how to build housing that meets the needs of communities.</p>
<p>Today, all levels of government, and many other public sector agencies, own land throughout the province. When this land is surplus, it is usually sold on the open market to the highest bidder. The Ontario Housing Affordability Task Force recommended that <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/housing-affordability-task-force-report">all future government land sales have a 20 per cent affordable housing requirement</a>, although this was not taken up.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/publicly-owned-land-should-be-used-for-affordable-housing-not-sold-to-private-developers-198654">Publicly owned land should be used for affordable housing, not sold to private developers</a>
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<p>Instead, there have been several high profile sales of Ontario government land that have resulted in no affordable housing, including a parking lot at the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/provincial-land-transit-hub-private-developer-sale-1.6330555">Port Credit GO station in Mississauga</a>, which was sold to a private developer for $64.5 million with no provisions for any affordable housing.</p>
<p>Land that Metrolinx has acquired for the Ontario Line will also be <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/metrolinx-land-sold-developers-affordable-housing-1.6817447">sold on the open market to the highest bidder</a>, with no requirements for any affordable or non-market housing.</p>
<p>This land should be kept in public ownership to build the kind of housing that the market is unwilling or unable to build. Paving over the Greenbelt was never necessary to meet our need for affordable housing. </p>
<p>A housing policy based on Greenbelt expansion has rightly been tossed aside. Now it’s time for the provincial government to step up and develop housing policies that will actually make a difference and get to the heart of why housing is so expensive. Fortunately, this isn’t rocket science and many of the solutions already exist.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian Doucet receives funding from SSHRC and the Canada Research Chairs program. </span></em></p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s plan to allow developers to build projects on parts of the Greenbelt was under the auspices of providing additional housing. But it would never have been affordable.Brian Doucet, Canada Research Chair in Urban Change and Social Inclusion, University of WaterlooLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2129172023-09-11T18:53:01Z2023-09-11T18:53:01ZWhy is Doug Ford doubling down amid Ontario’s Greenbelt scandal?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-is-doug-ford-doubling-down-amid-ontarios-greenbelt-scandal" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The past few weeks have witnessed an extraordinary series of events in Ontario politics. Reports tabled by the province’s <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/Greenbelt_en.pdf">auditor general</a> and its <a href="https://www.oico.on.ca/web/default/files/public/Commissioners%20Reports/Report%20Re%20Minister%20Clark%20-%20August%2030%2C%202023.pdf">integrity commissioner</a> on the government’s November 2022 decision to remove 7,400 acres of land from the Greater Toronto Area’s Greenbelt have set off a political firestorm.</p>
<p>The controversy has resulted in the resignation of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/steve-clark-resigns-greenbelt-1.6956402">Housing Minister Steve Clark</a> and his <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/ontario-housing-ministers-chief-of-staff-resigns-days-after-auditor-general-report-on-greenbelt">chief of staff</a> and angry protesters greeting <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/ford-fest-kitchener-waterloo-region-1.6960609">Premier Doug Ford in Kitchener, Ont., when he arrived for the annual Ford Fest under heavy police escort.</a></p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1700281912881770782"}"></div></p>
<p>The auditor general found that normal decision-making processes related to the Greenbelt had been bypassed, that it was well-established there was no need to remove land from the Greenbelt for housing purposes and that decisions were “biased” in favour of certain developers who had bought the lands in question and who stood to reap a $8.3 billion windfall from their development. </p>
<p>The integrity commissioner, for his part, described the decision-making process around the Greenbelt removals as “madcap.”</p>
<h2>Doubling down</h2>
<p>Ford’s government has so far stonewalled on the auditor general’s key recommendation that the removal of the lands from the Greenbelt be “reconsidered.”</p>
<p>In fact, the government seems to be moving in the opposite direction. <a href="https://www.newmarkettoday.ca/local-news/youre-on-notice-ford-warns-land-will-return-to-greenbelt-if-conditions-not-met-7469519">It is pressuring</a> developers to accelerate construction on the removed lands. </p>
<p>New Housing Minister Paul Calandra is now advancing a wholesale review of the Greenbelt plan. <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/more-land-removed-greenbelt-review-minister-says">That seems to include consideration</a> of the possibility of further land removals, if not a complete reconsideration of the Greenbelt as a whole.</p>
<p>The government’s response to the situation defies normal political logic. Following the departure of the minister and his chief of staff, a government might have been expected to use the announcement of the Greenbelt review as political cover to back down on the land removals, take further moves on the Greenbelt off the table and then move on from the entire episode.</p>
<p>The Ford government’s emerging <a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/2007266/ford-doubles-down-on-housing-plan-amid-calls-to-fire-minister-over-greenbelt-swap">double-down</a> approach, by contrast, seems fraught with political and legal risks. </p>
<p>Furthermore, reports expected to be just as damaging are on the horizon. The integrity commissioner will issue a follow-up report at some point over the next year, and so will the auditor general.</p>
<h2>Major challenges loom</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-opp-refers-greenbelt-investigation-to-rcmp/">The RCMP</a> is considering requests to look into whether there’s been any criminal behaviour in relation to the Greenbelt controversy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greenbelt-stop-ford-ontario-1.6933082">Other potential challenges</a> to the legality and procedural correctness of Greenbelt removals loom. Municipal councils may decline to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/duffins-rouge-agricultural-preserve-1.6937144">provide or approve the infrastructure</a> needed to support housing development on the Greenbelt since the lands in question were never expected to be developed, and no plans exist for such infrastructure. </p>
<p>There may even be legal action by <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/08/29/news/first-nations-chiefs-demand-return-all-removed-greenbelt-land">Indigenous Peoples</a> whose treaty rights and interests may have been infringed upon by the Greenbelt decisions.</p>
<p>The situation begs an explanation of the government’s behaviour in response to the episode. Some have suggested simple stubbornness and a refusal to accept blame, although Ford himself <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2261250627978">has described the process as flawed</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-fords-greenbelt-scandal-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-his-years-in-power-211629">Doug Ford's Greenbelt scandal: The beginning of the end of his years in power?</a>
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<h2>The role of Ford Nation</h2>
<p>There’s a second possibility.</p>
<p>Ontario voters, especially <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2022/doug-ford-political-durability/">those who are likely to vote for the Ford government</a> (also known as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-17/the-rise-of-urban-populism-in-rob-ford-s-toronto">Ford Nation</a>), may simply care more about immediate affordability issues than more abstract notions about evidence-based policymaking, good planning, legal correctness and political accountability. </p>
<p>These are all issues being raised by Ontario’s <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9885243/ontario-opposition-parties-greenbelt-report-response/">opposition parties</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/doug-ford-s-housing-minister-must-resign-but-hey-don-t-just-take-it-from/article_742bf67e-9804-5df2-88c9-7478fc0c2f2c.html">mainstream</a> media, but it’s unclear whether they resonate with Ford’s loyal base. </p>
<p>Public opinion polling on the impact of the Greenbelt episode is still relatively preliminary. <a href="https://abacusdata.ca/has-the-greenbelt-scandal-hurt-the-ford-pcs-in-ontario/">There is evidence</a> of relatively high levels of awareness of the Greenbelt scandal, but its political consequences, particularly nearly three years away from the next provincial election, aren’t clear. </p>
<p>The longer-term response may give some indication of whether the government has accurately assessed deeper shifts in Ontario’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-election-4-ways-doug-ford-has-changed-the-provinces-politics-182660">political culture</a>, which has traditionally emphasized administrative competence, integrity and moderation.</p>
<h2>No vision</h2>
<p>Beyond its political impact, the Greenbelt episode, and the government’s broader approach to planning and development matters, have left the province’s planning process in discredited shambles. </p>
<p>Once the subject of <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/86986/ontario-celebrates-second-major-award-for-growth-plan">international acclaim</a>, the Greenbelt debacle has made it starkly apparent that the <a href="https://thepointer.com/article/2023-04-24/experts-say-pcs-proposed-bill-97-is-a-sprawl-inducing-full-frontal-assault-on-ontario-agriculture">government’s reforms</a> over the past five years have converted the process into an instrument wielded by the province on behalf of the interests of developers.</p>
<p>The government seems to have <a href="https://theconversation.com/giving-developers-free-rein-isnt-the-solution-to-the-gtha-housing-challenges-176128">no underlying vision</a> for the Greater Toronto Area other than to give the development industry everything it wants and hope that solves the housing crisis. </p>
<p>The industry itself has no vision for the region other than an overriding focus on short-term profit maximization.</p>
<p>Challenges facing the GTA are multidimensional and complex: <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/social-innovation/Programs/Affordable_Housing_Visual_Systems_Map_Oxford.pdf">housing needs</a>, particularly at the lower end of the income scale; structural economic transitions and <a href="https://ppforum.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/JobPolarizationInCanada-PPF-April2021-EN.pdf">increasingly polarized</a> labour markets; <a href="https://trca.ca/climate-change-impacts-gta/">the impacts</a> of a changing climate; and a growing <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/news/city-of-toronto-staff-report-says-toronto-faces-an-unprecedented-financial-crisis-and-the-time-is-now-for-all-orders-of-government-to-step-up-to-fulfil-their-roles/">fiscal crisis</a>, particularly for the City of Toronto, driven in large part by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-mayors-slam-ford-download-1.5117718">provincial downloading.</a> </p>
<p>Responding to these challenges will require planning and decision-making processes grounded in democratic norms, evidence, transparency and accountability — the <a href="https://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2023/06/13/doug-ford-at-5-years-selling-out-ontarios-future-to-please-the-well-connected/">very opposite</a> of the Ford government’s modus operandi.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212917/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He was involved in the development of the original Growth and Greenbelt Plans for the Greater Toronto Region. </span></em></p>The Greenbelt scandal is among the most serious of Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s years in office. So why is he pressuring developers to accelerate construction on Greenbelt lands?Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2117192023-08-30T22:16:16Z2023-08-30T22:16:16ZGlobal biodiversity: Why the proposed changes to Ontario’s Greenbelt matter<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/global-biodiversity-why-the-proposed-changes-to-ontarios-greenbelt-matter" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government continues to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-fords-greenbelt-scandal-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-his-years-in-power-211629">tied up in a massive scandal</a> over <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ontario-greenbelt-plan-ford-housing/">its plans to remove lands from Ontario’s Greenbelt</a> — including the integrity commissioner’s <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-housing-minister-steve-clark-broke-ethics-rules-in-greenbelt-development-1.6541247">finding that the housing minister broke ethics rules</a>.</p>
<p>Indeed, as world leaders gathered in Vancouver on Aug. 24 to launch a <a href="https://www.thegef.org/newsroom/press-releases/new-global-biodiversity-fund-launched-vancouver">“game-changing” global fund to fight biodiversity loss</a>, Ford was already leading Canada’s most populous province in a very different direction.</p>
<p>Political controversy aside, what has become abundantly clear is that Ford’s Greenbelt plans fly in the face of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/countries-launch-fund-protect-nature-un-calls-more-money-2023-08-24/">Canada’s freshly funded commitment to halt biodiversity loss</a>.</p>
<p>Stretching over two million acres, the <a href="https://www.greenbelt.ca/learn">Greenbelt is the largest protected area of its kind in the world</a>. It includes some of Ontario’s best farmland as well as over seven hundred thousand acres of wetlands, grasslands and forests.</p>
<p>With the climate change crisis fuelling devastating <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-wildfires-an-area-larger-than-the-netherlands-has-been-burned-so-far-this-year-heres-what-is-causing-them-207577">wildfires</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-science-of-drought-is-complex-but-the-message-on-climate-change-is-clear-125941">droughts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/european-heatwave-whats-causing-it-and-is-climate-change-to-blame-209653">heat waves</a>, it can be easy to forget that we <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/06/the-biodiversity-crisis-in-numbers-a-visual-guide-aoe">are also living through a global biodiversity crisis</a>.</p>
<p>So, what exactly is it that we gain from biodiversity — and what does protecting lands like the Greenbelt have to do with it?</p>
<h2>Nature’s interconnected benefits</h2>
<p><a href="https://biodiversity.europa.eu/europes-biodiversity/ecosystems">Ecosystem services are the benefits we get from the natural environment</a>. It is a long list that includes everything from the foods we eat and the clean air we breathe to the simple joy of walking through the woods.</p>
<p>These services are usually divided into three main groups: provisioning, regulating and cultural services. </p>
<p>Provisioning services give us the physical things we need, like the plants and animals we eat, clean water to drink and plant life that provide things like oxygen, lumber and paper. Nature provides these vital resources. Even modern food industries still ultimately rely on the health of both agricultural and natural ecosystems.</p>
<p>Agricultural systems <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0143">rely on regulating services</a> like erosion protection, pollination and pest control. Regulating services, as the name suggests, regulate environmental conditions, including the climate and the water cycle.</p>
<p>A better-known example of this kind of service is <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-carbon-sequestration">carbon sequestration: the process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide</a>. It is a key climate regulation process that natural lands provide.</p>
<p>The Greenbelt scoops up an estimated 71 million tonnes of carbon annually. For context, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html">the average Canadian is responsible for about 20 tonnes</a> of carbon entering the atmosphere over the same period. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-wetland-an-ecologist-explains-191495">Wetlands are another example of a regulating service</a>. The soils and plants in wetlands — <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-greenbelt-farmland-wetlands-floodplains/">some of which are targeted for removal from the Greenbelt</a> — take up water and absorb carbon and other pollutants. This offers not only flood control, but also helps to clean both the water and air.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pollution-timebombs-contaminated-wetlands-are-ticking-towards-ignition-208345">Pollution timebombs: Contaminated wetlands are ticking towards ignition</a>
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<p>Finally, cultural services capture the spiritual, historical and cultural significance of certain natural lands and ecosystems. These services also include things like recreation, aesthetics and the <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/the-athletes-way/202204/why-living-near-greenery-helps-us-think-better">general improvements to our well-being</a> that <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nature-that-nurtures/">come from being in or around nature</a> — and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2022.101502">cultural services are particularly important for Indigenous Peoples</a>.</p>
<p>With over nine million people living within 20 kilometres of the Greenbelt, it provides a space for nearly a quarter of Canada’s population to enjoy these benefits. </p>
<h2>A diverse support system</h2>
<p>Biodiversity supports these ecosystem services, helping to keep natural processes working. Not all environments will provide the same services and having several types of ecosystems helps to maintain the wide variety of services we need — a type of biodiversity called ecosystem diversity.</p>
<p>In a healthy, resilient ecosystem, many different species will perform the same function, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ncon.2015.11.001">something known as “functional diversity.”</a> For example, there are many different insects — bees, butterflies, beetles and more — that pollinate flowering plants. With many species doing the same job, the ecosystem can keep humming along even if one is impacted by disease, droughts or heat waves.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ivy-dandelions-and-other-common-wildflowers-are-often-seen-as-weeds-but-theyre-a-crucial-resource-for-pollinating-insects-210813">Ivy, dandelions and other common wildflowers are often seen as weeds – but they're a crucial resource for pollinating insects</a>
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<p>Genetic biodiversity — the variety of genetic material that exists within a species — is the basis for natural selection. It allows species to evolve and survive in changing environments — something that is increasingly important in a warming world.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.greenbelt.ca/biodiversity_in_ontario">The Greenbelt is home to 78 species at risk</a>. Several of <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9806793/ontario-ford-government-greenbelt-changes-at-risk-species/">these species are located on the parcels of land slated to lose their protections</a>, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/barn-owls-reflect-moonlight-in-order-to-stun-their-prey-122796">barn owls</a>, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/species-risk-public-registry/related-information/faq-consultation-recovery-strategy-eastern-meadowlark.html">the eastern meadowlark</a> and <a href="https://www.thesudburystar.com/news/local-news/federal-money-to-help-researchers-study-health-of-blandings-turtles-in-sudbury">Blanding’s turtle</a>.</p>
<h2>The land-use battle</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/5-key-drivers-nature-crisis">leading driver of biodiversity loss is the destruction of habitats due to changes in land use</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/adjusting-the-intensity-of-farming-can-help-address-climate-change-191293">mainly for agricultural purposes</a> and general urbanization.</p>
<p>This is what world leaders are trying to curtail with the launch of the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund in Vancouver this past week — with <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2023/08/canada-announces-contribution-to-global-biodiversity-framework-fund-to-protect-worlds-nature.html">Canada pledging $200 million dollars to the cause</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this type of habitat destruction is also exactly what is being proposed for the Greenbelt.</p>
<p>The issue is not only about the amount of land that is protected, but also where it is and its connection to other natural areas. The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1500052">fragmentation of ecosystems</a> — where natural lands are divided into smaller, isolated patches — restricts the movement of species and can impact both functional and genetic diversity.</p>
<p>The current setup of the Greenbelt helps to prevent fragmentation by <a href="https://ontarionature.org/greenbelt-lands-at-stake-blog/">connecting landscapes, allowing wildlife</a> to move between different areas. Slicing out one chunk of protected land and passing those protections elsewhere could destroy this.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/protecting-biodiversity-and-making-it-accessible-has-paid-off-for-costa-rica-180301">Protecting biodiversity – and making it accessible – has paid off for Costa Rica</a>
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<hr>
<p>Ultimately, biodiversity plays a vital role in supporting the ecosystem services we, and all life on earth, rely upon and will become even more important as we face a changing climate. </p>
<p>In the face of distracting political controversy it is easy to lose sight of a more fundamental fact: that preserving the Greenbelt — and Canadian biodiversity in general — is essential to our ongoing survival.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211719/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Loog receives funding from CIRAIG, the International Reference Center for Life Cycle Assessment and Sustainable Transition and its industrial partners.</span></em></p>While Canada pledges $200 million to promote biodiversity, Doug Ford removes lands from the Greenbelt. Here is why we all should care.Kathryn Loog, PhD Candidate, Industrial Engineering, Polytechnique MontréalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2116292023-08-17T19:34:17Z2023-08-17T19:34:17ZDoug Ford’s Greenbelt scandal: The beginning of the end of his years in power?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543110/original/file-20230816-17-r4v3zi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C1908%2C7454%2C3035&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks during a news conference in Mississauga, Ont., on Aug. 11, 2023, two days after a scathing auditor general report into the Greenbelt.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Cole Burston</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/doug-fords-greenbelt-scandal-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-his-years-in-power" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The findings of Ontario’s <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/Greenbelt_en.pdf">auditor general</a> on the provincial government’s decision to remove 7,400 acres from the Greater Toronto Area Greenbelt came as no surprise to those who have been closely following Premier Doug Ford’s approach to planning and development.</p>
<p>Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk determined:</p>
<p>— Well-connected developers were given direct access to ministerial staff and the opportunity to rewrite planning rules to suit their own interests;</p>
<p>— Normal decision-making processes and planning rules were bypassed;</p>
<p>— <a href="https://theconversation.com/has-ontarios-housing-plan-been-built-on-a-foundation-of-evidentiary-sand-198133">Overwhelming evidence</a> that indicated there was no need to remove land from the Greenbelt to meet the region’s housing needs was ignored;</p>
<p>— Decisions were made to provide billions of dollars in benefits to private interests that won’t enhance housing affordability in any way.</p>
<p>All of this is part of a wider pattern of behaviour for the Ford government over the past five years.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a yellow suit with thick brown hair speaks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543109/original/file-20230816-29-jhk1op.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk speaks to the media during a news conference regarding her report on the Greenbelt on Aug. 9, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Arlyn McAdorey</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Par for the course</h2>
<p>The Greenbelt controversy is the culmination of a series of troubling government <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qqljI_mBx4&feature=share">decisions and legislative</a> changes since Ford was first elected in 2018. </p>
<p>These have included the widespread use of <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ministers-zoning-order-ontario-explainer/">ministerial zoning orders, known as MZOs</a>, to override local plans and city council decisions in favour of development interests. </p>
<p>In addition, developers have been invited to rewrite the planning rules — all mandated by municipalities and communities to facilitate and manage urban growth via existing provincial policies — to suit their own interests. </p>
<p>There are examples throughout Toronto and its bedroom communities — including in <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-developers-propose-taller-towers-for-torontos-midtown/?utm_medium=Referrer:+Social+Network+/+Media&utm_campaign=Shared+Web+Article+Links">midtown and downtown Toronto</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-ministerial-zoning-orders-1.6421555">Richmond Hill, Markham</a> <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/mississauga-lakeview-village-mzo-1.6844018">and Mississauga</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1515901681770409989"}"></div></p>
<p>The roles of <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ontario-strips-conservation-authority-powers/">conservation authorities</a> and local governments in decision-making have been systemically marginalized, and <a href="https://www.osler.com/en/resources/regulations/2022/forget-everything-you-thought-you-knew-about-planning-approvals-in-ontario%E2%80%A6">planning rules related to both built and natural heritage conservation sites</a> have been shredded. </p>
<p>Meantime, the costs of the infrastructure needed to support private, for-profit development <a href="https://www.amo.on.ca/sites/default/files/assets/DOCUMENTS/Submissions/SC_HICP-LTR_AP_AMO_Submission_Bill%2023_More_Homes_Built_Faster_Act_20221116.pdf">have been transferred</a> to local and provincial taxpayers.</p>
<p>The province’s land-use planning system — including <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/greenbelt-plan-2017">the Greenbelt</a>
<a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/place-grow-growth-plan-greater-golden-horseshoe">and growth</a> plans for the Greater Toronto Area — were once the subject of <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/86986/ontario-celebrates-second-major-award-for-growth-plan">international acclaim</a> for their management of intense growth while farmland, housing affordability and natural heritage areas were protected. </p>
<p>Now that system has been transformed into an instrument wielded by the province to overcome any objections to the wishes of developers.</p>
<h2>Policy failure</h2>
<p>The result has been a predictable picture of policy failure — a <a href="https://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2022/11/07/doug-fords-more-homes-built-faster-act-bill-23-and-the-future-of-the-greater-toronto-region/">development boom</a> defined by the construction of single-use high-rises, mostly condominiums, in urban areas and sprawling low-density housing in the suburbs. </p>
<p>That trend has been escalated by the removal of the 7,400 acres from the Greenbelt.</p>
<p>This model of “<a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/04/20/ontarios-top-down-approach-to-urban-growth-is-reversing-progress-on-many-levels.html">tall and sprawl</a>” development has done next to nothing to improve housing affordability, particularly for those at the lower end of the income scale. </p>
<p>In fact, in some areas, this industry-driven model is leading to <a href="https://www.torontomu.ca/content/dam/social-innovation/Programs/Affordable_Housing_Visual_Systems_Map_Oxford.pdf">significant losses</a> of existing affordable rental housing as they’re displaced by investor-owned condominium developments.</p>
<p>The same <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-election-4-ways-doug-ford-has-changed-the-provinces-politics-182660">basic principles</a> evident in the government’s handling of the Greenbelt and housing files can be seen across a range of files, from <a href="https://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2023/07/11/ontario-turns-rational-energy-planning-on-its-head/">energy</a> to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/doug-ford-s-private-health-care-plan-is-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-medicare/article_e5c55c28-3df9-5540-9240-4108eb938a5b.html">health care</a>. </p>
<p>The Ford government engages in a casual approach to decision-making that regards normal governance processes as delay-inducing red tape. It tends to respond uncritically to whatever its favoured economic interests tell it to do. </p>
<p>That tendency was highlighted in Ford’s recent Greenbelt news conference, when he seemed to define good governance as saying “yes” to whatever business lobbyists ask for.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Doug Ford holds a news conference hours after the Ontario auditor general released a scathing Greenbelt report. (CPAC)</span></figcaption>
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<p>Perhaps even more disturbing is his apparent blindness to the meaning of <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-the-buck-stops-nowhere-as-doug-ford-dispenses-with-ministerial/">ministerial responsibility</a> or accountability in a system of democratic governance. Both Ford and Housing Minister Steve Clark claim they didn’t know what the minister’s chief of staff was doing on the Greenbelt file. </p>
<p>Those claims are either admissions of catastrophic failures in management and oversight or an attempt to mislead the legislature, the auditor general and the public.</p>
<h2>Stonewalling</h2>
<p>So far, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2254543427510">the government has stonewalled</a> on the auditor general’s key recommendation — that the removal of lands from the Greenbelt must be re-evaluated in light of what the government itself admits was a <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=2742646">flawed decision-making process</a>. </p>
<p>But the political and legal fallout from the auditor general’s report seems destined to continue for some time.</p>
<p>A further report into the controversy from the Ontario legislature’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/housing-minister-chief-staff-integrity-commissioner-1.6932582">Integrity Commissioner</a> is on the horizon. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1691754944582324368"}"></div></p>
<p>Lysyk has already committed to a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-82-here-and-now-toronto/clip/16002583-auditor-general-bonnie-lysyk-breaks-findings-greenbelt-report">followup</a> audit.
<a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2023/08/12/news/environmental-group-green-party-call-police-investigation-ford-government-greenbelt">There are also calls</a> for an Ontario Provincial Police investigation into the Greenbelt decisions. A variety of potential procedural <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greenbelt-stop-ford-ontario-1.6933082">and legal challenges</a> are under consideration. </p>
<p>Whether the entire episode will prompt the government to reconsider its evidence-free, friends-with-benefits approach to governing remains an open question. So does the question of whether the political and legal fallout will be substantial enough to mark the beginning of the end for Ford’s government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211629/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
He was involved in the development of the original GTA Greenbelt and Growth Plans, including serving on the Ministerial Advisory Committee on the Implementation of the Growth Plan. </span></em></p>Ontario’s Doug Ford government engages in a casual approach to decision-making that regards normal governance processes as nothing but delay-inducing red tape.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071942023-06-13T17:29:47Z2023-06-13T17:29:47ZDoug Ford at 5 years: Selling out Ontario’s future to please the well-connected<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531407/original/file-20230612-63747-qi3v54.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C239%2C4000%2C2413&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford attends a conference in May 2023 in Etobicoke, Ont. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Tijana Martin</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The initial political success of the Doug Ford government in Ontario <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2022/doug-ford-political-durability/">has been attributed</a> to its ability to connect with those who have seen themselves as the losers in the province’s economic transition from a manufacturing and resource extraction-based economy to one based on services. </p>
<p>The government’s political survival through last year’s provincial election, despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ontario-can-recover-from-doug-fords-covid-19-governance-disaster-159783">its bumbling</a> handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, has been attributed to a <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/06/09/the-inside-story-of-how-doug-ford-beat-the-ndp-and-destroyed-the-liberals-in-the-ontario-election.html">range of factors</a>. They include the inability of the opposition parties to offer compelling alternatives and deeper shifts in the province’s political culture.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-election-doug-fords-victory-shows-hes-not-the-polarizing-figure-he-once-was-183885">Ontario election: Doug Ford's victory shows he's not the polarizing figure he once was</a>
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<p>Ford’s Progressive Conservatives <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/06/03/18-of-ontario-voters-handed-doug-ford-a-majority-government-whether-thats-a-bad-thing-depends-who-you-ask.html">received a thin second electoral mandate, with less than 18 per cent of the ballots of eligible voters</a> and more than 400,000 fewer votes than in 2018. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the government has doubled down on <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-election-4-ways-doug-ford-has-changed-the-provinces-politics-182660">key themes</a> that emerged during the pre-pandemic period of its first mandate.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-continuing-to-turn-his-back-on-the-people-despite-new-faces-121547">Doug Ford: Continuing to turn his back on 'the people' despite new faces</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Three pillars</h2>
<p>That pre-pandemic phase was characterized by:</p>
<ol>
<li>A deeply reactive, uncritical and, at times, increasingly authoritarian approach to governance.</li>
<li>An agenda that was defined by responsiveness only to certain types of well-established interests.</li>
<li>A casual approach to eliminating provincial revenue streams and embedding long-term costs and liabilities.</li>
</ol>
<p>The Ford government’s willingness to use the power of the province <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-developers-at-doug-fords-daughters-wedding-only-deepens-the-trouble/">to benefit those well-connected</a> has been most evident around land-use planning and development. </p>
<p>The province’s land-use planning system, including <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/greenbelt-plan-2017">the Greenbelt</a> <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/place-grow-growth-plan-greater-golden-horseshoe">and growth</a> plans for the Greater Toronto Area, was once the subject of <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/86986/ontario-celebrates-second-major-award-for-growth-plan">international acclaim</a> for its management of intense growth pressures in the region while protecting farmland, housing affordability and natural heritage areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Signs urge Doug Ford to keep his hands off the Greenbelt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531408/original/file-20230612-220125-4wmdp7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Signs voicing opposition to the Ontario government’s plans for the province’s Greenbelt are seen outside homes within the Duffins Rouge Agricultural Preserve, part of the Greenbelt area, in May 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A succession of <a href="https://thepointer.com/article/2023-04-24/experts-say-pcs-proposed-bill-97-is-a-sprawl-inducing-full-frontal-assault-on-ontario-agriculture">housing bills and policy changes proposed and adopted</a> over the past year have completed the system’s transformation into an instrument wielded by the province to overcome any objections to the development industry’s wishes.</p>
<p>Another striking feature of the re-elected Ford government has been its tendency to eliminate provincial revenue streams while entrenching long-term costs. The full impact of this conduct has been masked in the immediate post-pandemic period by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-budget-2023-ford-1.6788370">buoyant provincial revenues</a> and the extent to which costs and liabilities are being passed along into the future.</p>
<h2>Lost revenues</h2>
<p>The cancellation of the province’s <a href="https://www.fao-on.org/en/blog/publications/cap-and-trade-ending">cap-and-trade system</a> for greenhouse gas emissions, the pre-2022 election termination of vehicle licensing fees and a post-election cut in provincial <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/11/13/doug-ford-extends-57-cents-per-litre-gas-tax-cut-for-another-year.html">gasoline taxes</a> have each cost the provincial treasury approximately $1 billion in lost annual revenues.</p>
<p>Additional drains on provincial resources are happening at the same time. <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-23">Bill 23</a>, the province’s More Homes Built Faster Act, hindered the ability of municipalities to make developers cover the costs of infrastructure needed to support new development. The province then promised <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-bill-23-reaction-1.6669428">to make municipal governments “whole</a>” if they couldn’t afford these costs. </p>
<p>The arrangement seems likely to translate into a <a href="https://www.amo.on.ca/sites/default/files/assets/DOCUMENTS/Submissions/SC_HICP-LTR_AP_AMO_Submission_Bill%2023_More_Homes_Built_Faster_Act_20221116.pdf">$1 billion annual gift</a> to the for-profit development industry on behalf of provincial taxpayers. </p>
<p>This is on top of the nearly <a href="https://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/Publications/energy-and-electricity-2022">$7 billion a year</a> spent from general revenues to artificially lower hydro rates. These are all resources that could otherwise be going to areas badly in need of investment, like health care and education.</p>
<p>The situation looks even worse going forward. Ontario seems <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2023/ontario-hydro-climate-mess/">on track</a> to embed enormous long-term costs in the electricity system. <a href="https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/The-Evolving-Grid/Pathways-to-Decarbonization">A nuclear-heavy plan</a> to decarbonize the electricity grid has an estimated capital cost in the range of $20 billion a year over next two decades.</p>
<p>An increased reliance on natural gas-fired generation will push costs <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/11/30/new-gas-plants-will-cause-ontario-hydro-rates-to-rise-report-says.html">higher still</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1621502531015696386"}"></div></p>
<h2>Public transit, climate action</h2>
<p>Similar problems are emerging in other areas. </p>
<p>In terms of public transit, the estimated cost of the high-profile Ontario line through central Toronto has nearly doubled absent major changes in the province’s approach to <a href="https://marksw.blog.yorku.ca/2023/02/24/has-metrolinx-become-a-law-unto-itself/">project management and oversight</a>. </p>
<p>The price tag is approaching <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/11/23/ontario-line-costs-nearly-double-after-awarding-of-latest-contracts.html">$20 billion</a> even though construction has barely begun. It’s at risk of dwarfing the multi-billion dollar debacles of the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2023/05/18/the-eglinton-lrt-wont-open-this-year-thats-not-the-worst-news-we-heard-about-the-project-this-week.html">Eglinton</a> and <a href="http://www.archives.gov.on.ca/en/e_records/OLRTPI/documents/final-report/index.html">Ottawa</a> light rapid-transit projects.</p>
<p>What’s more, the province continues to have no meaningful strategy around climate change, despite the growing evidence of its impacts, including <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9747680/ontario-more-forest-fires-unprecedented-season-canada/">this spring’s wildfires</a> in Ontario. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The orange flames of a wildfire and billowing brown smoke are seen from above." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531406/original/file-20230612-261256-ohn2oi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Sudbury 17 wildfire burns east of Mississagi Provincial Park near Elliot Lake, Ont., on June 4, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Handout, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The province’s <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/specialreports/specialreports/The_State_Of_The_Environment_EN.pdf">Auditor General and Environmental Commissioner</a> recently highlighted other areas of ongoing environmental challenges, ranging from air and water quality to biodiversity losses. The province has no effective plans to address either.</p>
<p>In fact, it has spent much of the past <a href="https://sei.info.yorku.ca/files/2023/03/The-Environment-Climate-Change-and-Market-Populist-Politics-Working-January-20231.pdf?x60126">five years</a> actively dismantling the agencies, laws and programs developed over the previous seven decades that had delivered improvements in environmental quality. </p>
<p>In doing so, the Ford government is effectively building environmental liabilities that will be borne by generations to come. That point was highlighted by the province’s <a href="https://miningwatch.ca/blog/2023/3/7/more-worse-mining-ontarios-proposed-building-more-mines-act">dramatic weakening</a> of the rules around mine closure this spring.</p>
<h2>Connections are key</h2>
<p>Five years into the Ford era, Ontario finds itself in a precarious moment. </p>
<p>The provincial government’s agenda seems to flow from whatever ideas or proposals happen to come its way from sources with access to the government and who are aligned with its policy priorities, regardless of the costs and coherence of what’s proposed. </p>
<p>Well-established industrial, resource extraction, gas-fired and nuclear energy production interests, along with land developers, have tended to be the big winners in Ford’s Ontario. </p>
<p>But major long-term economic and environmental costs and liabilities are being run up as a result by the Ford government, eroding the province’s capacity to deal with future challenges. </p>
<p>In effect, the province’s future is being mortgaged to serve those well-connected to the government. Few Canadian provinces have had a need for better governance with such a scant short-term prospect of seeing that need met.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. </span></em></p>Doug Ford’s Ontario government is running up major long-term economic and environmental costs and liabilities, eroding the province’s capacity to deal with future challenges.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1984932023-02-15T18:52:40Z2023-02-15T18:52:40ZOntario’s private surgical clinics: Cheques but no balances when providing health care<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510199/original/file-20230214-26-1i76q6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C482%2C4801%2C2584&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario's push to for-profit surgical clinics is bad news for the non-profit public health-care system.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ontario-s-private-surgical-clinics--cheques-but-no-balances-when-providing-health-care" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-jones-health-surgeries-private-clinics-1.6715117">Private surgical clinics</a> are one proposal to tackle surgical backlogs and wait lists. </p>
<p>But are they the right solution?</p>
<p>It’s critical to consider the trade-offs when surgeries are moved out of non-profit facilities, like hospitals and community clinics, and into for-profit clinics.</p>
<p>Ontario’s private eye surgery clinics are an interesting case. They were the <a href="https://www.cbj.ca/bochner_eye_institute/">first in the province</a> to perform surgeries outside hospitals. Some have been around for decades, doing for-profit cosmetic and laser eye surgeries for people who pay directly for procedures. Most are owned by ophthalmologists.</p>
<p>The Ontario government has just approved contracts for three <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-doug-ford-announcement-private-surgeries/">laser eye for-profit businesses</a> to do cataract surgeries to be paid for by the province’s public health insurance, known as OHIP. This raises important issues.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-cataracts-63699">Explainer: what are cataracts?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Unhealthy trade-offs</h2>
<p>Surgeries in for-profit clinics cost the public system more than if the surgeries were performed in non-profit hospitals.</p>
<p>Ontario <a href="https://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/public/programs/ihf/docs/IHF_application_guidelines.pdf">will pay clinics</a> a flat facility fee of $605 per patient for a single-cataract surgery and $1,015 for a double-cataract surgery. </p>
<p>The facility fee is paid by the public system to cover overhead, such as technicians, technology, nurses, supplies and buildings, and is separate from surgeon fees. Any payment exceeding costs is retained as profit by the clinic. </p>
<p>The comparable overhead fee paid to non-profit hospitals is <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ontario-does-not-need-more-for-profit-surgery/">closer to $500 per patient</a>. Hospitals don’t make a profit, and their funding is allocated to meet patient needs.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509945/original/file-20230214-26-cr4ign.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C109%2C4817%2C2962&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A closeup of an eye with a light shining on it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509945/original/file-20230214-26-cr4ign.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C109%2C4817%2C2962&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509945/original/file-20230214-26-cr4ign.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509945/original/file-20230214-26-cr4ign.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509945/original/file-20230214-26-cr4ign.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509945/original/file-20230214-26-cr4ign.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509945/original/file-20230214-26-cr4ign.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509945/original/file-20230214-26-cr4ign.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For-profit clinics in Ontario are performing cataract and other eye surgeries, siphoning money and resources from the public system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ottawa-eye-clinic-says-it-has-a-licence-to-perform-5000-additional-cataract-surgeries-per-year-under-provincial-expansion">One clinic</a> has a contract for 5,000 cataract surgeries, yielding more than $3 million in facility fees plus more than $2 million in surgeon’s billings. The facility fee from that single contract is at least $500,000 more than any non-profit hospital would receive. </p>
<p>How could that $500,000 be used for improvements to the health system instead? </p>
<p>Funds are desperately required to hire health-care workers. Maybe the money from that single contract could fund thousands of hours of home care with personal support workers or hire several full-time registered nurses to staff a hospital operating room. </p>
<p>Ontario could also invest more in <a href="https://www.oma.org/uploadedfiles/oma/media/public/hcp-factsheet-doctor-shortage.pdf">primary-care teams to service the estimated two million residents without family doctors</a>. It could open more medical school spots. It could encourage more residency spots for ophthalmology and fund more staff physician positions at teaching hospitals to do their training. </p>
<h2>Eroding the public health system</h2>
<p>If <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-releases-3-step-plan-to-invest-in-private-care-to-reduce-surgical-backlog-1.6232067">Ontario’s three-step plan to contract out more for-profit surgical and diagnostic centres</a> happens, significant public funds will be diverted towards profit. This will result in huge costs to the health system. </p>
<p>Contracting out these surgeries isn’t about lack of space. The Ontario auditor general reported there are <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/annualreports/arreports/en21/AR_Outpatient_en21.pdf">under-used surgical spaces in Ontario hospitals</a> that require nursing staff to operate. This is a human resources challenge, not a space challenge. </p>
<p>Ontario only has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcjo.2018.10.022">three ophthalmologists for every 100,000 residents</a>. That ratio is worsened when ophthalmologists work only partially in the public system and spend the rest of their time doing privately paid procedures like laser eye surgeries. Only 68 per cent of Ontario ophthalmologists perform cataract surgeries.</p>
<p>By way of contrast, in Nova Scotia — with <a href="https://www.cihi.ca/sites/default/files/document/national-physician-database-data-release-2020-2021-meth-notes-en.pdf">five ophthalmologists for every 100,000 people</a> — 75 per cent perform cataract surgeries, improving access for Nova Scotians.</p>
<p>Surgical backlogs for medically necessary surgeries, such as cataract removal, are also affected by laser eye and cosmetic surgeries. Every hour doing laser eye surgeries is an hour less for cataract surgery. </p>
<p>The province could regulate how often ophthalmologists perform optional procedures to prioritize medically necessary surgeries that save people’s vision. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A patient lies on a gurney as a doctor performs surgery on their eye." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510202/original/file-20230214-20-zb0f6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510202/original/file-20230214-20-zb0f6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510202/original/file-20230214-20-zb0f6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510202/original/file-20230214-20-zb0f6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510202/original/file-20230214-20-zb0f6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510202/original/file-20230214-20-zb0f6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510202/original/file-20230214-20-zb0f6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Every hour doing laser eye surgeries is an hour less for a cataract surgery.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Balances needed for the public system</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.cosprc.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/COS-Principles.pdf">The Canadian Ophthalmological Society</a> has advocated against profit as a main professional motivation. Allowing physicians to have a foot in both public and for-profit medicine causes surgical backlogs for everyone.</p>
<p>Ontario should require the profession to recommit to the public system — because the public system has committed to ophthalmologists. Like other trained physicians in Canada, ophthalmologists are significantly underwritten by public funds for part of their medical tuition, to fund the physicians who train them as residents, and for partial coverage of their <a href="https://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/pro/programs/ohip/mlp/default.aspx">medical liability protection</a> insurance. </p>
<p>Cataract surgery is the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.161140">most common surgery performed across Canada</a>. Medically necessary cataract surgery is needs-based, unlike elective laser eye or cosmetic surgery, and demand is high. The wait lists grow because too few ophthalmologists are performing it. </p>
<p>Between 2011 and 2016, the <a href="https://www.cihi.ca/en/national-physician-database-metadata">number of surgeons performing cataract surgery in Ontario decreased by 44 per cent</a>. The overall number of surgeries performed held steady after 2016, but demand has increased with an aging population and because of pandemic-related backlogs.</p>
<p>To improve wait lists and be transparent with public funds, there must be better accountability on the part of the profession. </p>
<p>Unlike other physician groups, ophthalmologists didn’t participate in the federal <a href="https://choosingwiselycanada.org/">Choosing Wisely campaign</a> to designate unnecessary tests and procedures that are costly to the system.</p>
<p>Ophthalmologists earn more because of a mismatch between the time it takes to perform the surgery and the fee that’s paid. While <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2019/07/04/of-the-194-highest-billing-doctors-in-ontario-54-are-ophthalmologists-why.html">technology has greatly decreased the time required</a>, the fee hasn’t dropped proportionally. </p>
<p>Ophthalmologists bill OHIP $398 for each surgery. Some <a href="http://www.ottawaretina.com/faq.html">bill for dozens of patients per day</a>, higher than in the past because surgeries are performed faster. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2019/07/04/of-the-194-highest-billing-doctors-in-ontario-54-are-ophthalmologists-why.html">Ophthalmologists are one third in the trinity of top-billing physicians</a> in Ontario. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1146783842566643714"}"></div></p>
<h2>Regulations required</h2>
<p>OHIP covers standard cataract lenses, but ophthalmologists can offer upgraded lenses to eliminate the need for glasses if patients pay additional fees. </p>
<p>These fees aren’t publicized, and there’s room for abuse, so Ontario needs government regulations to oversee any fees paid directly by patients. </p>
<p>Stories abound about <a href="https://www.chathamdailynews.ca/news/local-news/chatham-ophthalmologist-receives-four-month-suspension-also-dinged-10k-for-cost-of-cpso-discipline-hearing">packages</a> billed to patients for lenses not received; about the <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/fear-of-upselling-as-some-surgeries-move-to-for-profit-clinics-in-ontario-1.6234733">upselling of lenses</a> that <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2023/02/05/when-it-comes-to-cataract-surgery-is-there-more-to-ontarios-private-clinics-than-meets-the-eye.html">may not actually benefit patients</a> but play on their fears; and issues <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2019/07/05/a-top-billing-ophthalmologist-charged-ohip-for-doing-an-eye-procedure-more-times-than-all-other-doctors-combined-another-billed-for-128-laser-treatments-in-one-day-the-numbers-have-some-medical-expe.html">with dubious</a> <a href="https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/crime/2020/03/05/former-niagara-eye-doctor-andrew-taylor-hit-with-fine-repayment-order.html">or fraudulent</a> billing. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1622280145955442689"}"></div></p>
<p>There are also <a href="https://www.theobserver.ca/news/local-news/chatham-ophthalmologist-going-before-cpso-disciplinary-committee-monday/wcm/772f9fe6-b4b0-4689-8336-19bdda22bbb7/amp/">ongoing investigations by the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario</a>. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2019/07/11/a-guide-to-understanding-the-stars-database-of-ontarios-top-billing-doctors.html">Twenty per cent of the top 20 ophthalmologist billers</a> have reportedly recently had their licences restricted or suspended. Currently, the college reviews <a href="https://clinics.cpso.on.ca/">for-profit surgical clinics</a> to maintain medical licences, but some have not been reviewed since 2016. </p>
<p>Ontario’s Health Ministry should conduct a value-for-money audit that could stop the practice of costlier patients, and most of the time-intensive training, remaining in non-profit hospitals as for-profits pursue lower-cost patients. Well-trained personnel may also be attracted to for-profits, where they retain more of their billings. </p>
<p>Unchecked, these practices lead to higher costs for the public system and to some patients jumping queues for surgeries.</p>
<p>Ontario should also change how <a href="https://www.ontariohealth.ca/public-reporting/wait-times">wait times</a> are publicly reported. Patients could select their ophthalmologist and join a single wait list. Instead of publicly reporting wait lists by hospital, they should be publicly reported by ophthalmologist, including how many of their assigned cases are handled according to priority benchmarks. </p>
<p>These are just some of the innovations needed to bring balance to the system.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198493/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tamara Daly receives funding from SSHRC. </span></em></p>Ontario is significantly expanding the number and range of medical procedures performed in privately run clinics. Here’s why that’s so problematic.Tamara Daly, Professor of Health Policy and Equity, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990672023-02-14T19:07:43Z2023-02-14T19:07:43ZOntario Liberals are down but far from out when it comes to ruling the province<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509745/original/file-20230213-26-2h5n7f.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C0%2C4500%2C2991&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca on the campaign trail during the June 2022 election in which he failed to stop Doug Ford. The Liberals only won eight seats and Del Duca stepped down, but the party still has a future in the province. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Vincent Elkaim</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The last two elections have not been kind to the Ontario Liberals, <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/the-liberal-party-is-worse-off-now-than-it-was-four-years-ago">constituting the party’s worst electoral performances</a> <a href="https://results.elections.on.ca/api/report-groups/45/report-outputs/951/pdf/en">since 1943</a>.</p>
<p>This string of defeats has produced <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-liberal-party-election-leadership-1.6484395">soul-searching among partisans and political pundits</a> that tends to ensue when a major party loses power. Yet this time, there’s also an atmosphere of existential dread. </p>
<p>With Doug Ford’s Conservatives comfortably in power alongside an opposition NDP with 31 seats compared to the Liberals’ eight, many have predicted the Ontario Liberals are poised for <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/the-ontario-liberals-are-in-trouble-what-does-that-mean-for-the-federal-party">further decline</a> into a minor party that will never form a government again — or perhaps fade away completely. </p>
<p>These predictions are overstated. They overestimate the extent of Liberal weakness and fail to take into the account the nuances of Ontario’s unique party system. </p>
<p>The fact is, unlike the situation in most provinces — where two parties almost always dominate — Ontario has managed to sustain unique and dynamic competition among the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP. </p>
<h2>NDP’s influence</h2>
<p>While <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/ontario-election-2018/ontario-election-results-since-1867-1.3962151?cache=zviomxnayn">the NDP has most often placed third in Ontario elections</a>, its ebbs and flows in terms of popularity have meant both the PCs and Liberals have on occasion been reduced to a small number of seats in the provincial legislature. </p>
<p>While this usually meant periods of weakness for both parties, they’ve always eventually returned to power. Even if the Liberals are in momentary decline, that doesn’t rule out an eventual return to power. </p>
<p>Popular support for the Liberals has clearly declined, but an exclusive focus on the seat counts of the last two elections overlooks ground-level conditions and over-emphasizes the extent of the reduction. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509757/original/file-20230213-23-xidkma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman in a white jacket with short dark blond hair speaks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509757/original/file-20230213-23-xidkma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509757/original/file-20230213-23-xidkma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509757/original/file-20230213-23-xidkma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509757/original/file-20230213-23-xidkma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509757/original/file-20230213-23-xidkma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509757/original/file-20230213-23-xidkma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509757/original/file-20230213-23-xidkma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Kathleen Wynne announces to supporters that she is stepping down as Ontario Liberal leader on election night in June 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/ Tijana Martin</span></span>
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<p>The party’s performance in 2018 — in which it won only seven seats with <a href="https://results.elections.on.ca/api/report-groups/1/report-outputs/923/pdf/en">19 per cent of the popular vote</a> — is best regarded as a routine, quasi-cyclical “change” election aimed at an unpopular incumbent, Kathleen Wynne. </p>
<p>While devastating for the party, it’s difficult to extrapolate long-term trends from that election result. Instead, the 2022 election — when the party won eight seats with <a href="https://results.elections.on.ca/en/publications">23.6 per cent of the vote</a> — is more helpful.</p>
<p>The Liberals failed to recapture what they lost in 2018, but the bigger picture shows this isn’t particularly noteworthy nor damning for the party. </p>
<h2>Popular Conservative government</h2>
<p>First, at a time of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/lowest-voter-turnout-ontario-history-elections-1.6476344">widespread voter apathy</a>, the Liberals faced a fairly popular incumbent Conservative government <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8868839/ontario-election-2022-ipsos-poll-vote-intention/">that was expected to win</a>. </p>
<p>There was no widespread desire for change among the public to benefit the Liberals. The Conservatives won more seats and also held onto the voters they’d extracted from the Liberals in 2018. </p>
<p>Second, there is little evidence that the New Democrats, as the other opposition party, were in a stronger or more popular position than the Liberals. </p>
<p>Although the NDP won more seats, they obtained a slightly smaller share of the popular vote — <a href="https://results.elections.on.ca/en/publications">23.4 per cent</a> compared to 23.6 per cent for the Liberals. This disparity, therefore, is for the most part due to the <a href="https://econfip.org/policy-briefs/majoritarian-versus-proportional-representation-voting/">majoritarian electoral system</a> that rewarded the New Democrats for having a more concentrated voter base. </p>
<p>Seen from this perspective, the 2022 results appear to be more conventional. Rather than demonstrating a clear Liberal decline, last year’s outcome was instead the result of a popular government that competed against a divided opposition. </p>
<p>With a Conservative return to power, the Liberals have simply shifted to another stage of the type of cyclical dynamic that characterizes Ontario party politics. </p>
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<img alt="A balding blond man smiles behind a podium that says Hon. Doug Ford." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509878/original/file-20230213-14-cflfs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509878/original/file-20230213-14-cflfs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509878/original/file-20230213-14-cflfs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509878/original/file-20230213-14-cflfs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509878/original/file-20230213-14-cflfs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509878/original/file-20230213-14-cflfs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509878/original/file-20230213-14-cflfs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford attends a news conference in Toronto in June 2022 after winning the provincial election.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
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<h2>Ballots cast for all three parties</h2>
<p>Since the Second World War, the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP <a href="https://results.elections.on.ca/api/report-groups/45/report-outputs/946/pdf/en">each reliably won at least 15 per cent</a> of the popular vote.</p>
<p>More interesting is the fact that, although disproportionately benefiting the Conservatives and Liberals, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1WV48KneIKmgx0p6Amb4f42WL-SP7eELHM8Kp610xPjE/htmlview">the order has shifted at times.</a> The Conservatives, for example, had distant third-place finishes <a href="https://canadaehx.com/2022/06/02/ontarios-elections-rises-and-falls-1985-2018/">throughout the final five years of the 1980s.</a> </p>
<p>At the same time, there is historic precedent for the recent string of results. Throughout periods of PC government, the Liberals and NDP have been <a href="https://results.elections.on.ca/api/report-groups/45/report-outputs/946/pdf/en">roughly tied in both seat count and their share of the popular vote</a>. </p>
<p>This was the <a href="https://results.elections.on.ca/api/report-groups/45/report-outputs/946/pdf/en">norm throughout the 1940s and 1970s</a>, including the 1971 and 1977 elections, when the Liberals won only one more seat than the New Democrats.</p>
<p>While this pattern declined with a period of NDP weakness throughout the 2000s, the recent success of the Conservatives may indicate the trend is set to return. Should the PCs remain popular, the Liberals and NDP would likely stay tied in support. </p>
<p>This Ontario electoral dynamic challenges much of the conventional wisdom surrounding majoritarian electoral systems. </p>
<p>It’s commonly held that elections held under the first-past-the-post system will <a href="https://authors.library.caltech.edu/81155/1/sswp688.pdf">eventually produce competition between two large parties</a>, and this applies to most of the provinces. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/canadas-first-past-the-post-electoral-system-highlights-once-again-the-need-for-reform-168648">Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system highlights once again the need for reform</a>
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<p>A large centre-right party (like Alberta’s United Conservative Party) competes for office against an equally large centre-left party (most often represented by either the Liberals or NDP). </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509881/original/file-20230213-15-f6ri2q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired man speaks with lights on the wall behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509881/original/file-20230213-15-f6ri2q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509881/original/file-20230213-15-f6ri2q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509881/original/file-20230213-15-f6ri2q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509881/original/file-20230213-15-f6ri2q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509881/original/file-20230213-15-f6ri2q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509881/original/file-20230213-15-f6ri2q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509881/original/file-20230213-15-f6ri2q.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">NDP Premier David Eby of British Columbia speaks with media during a news conference on Parliament Hill on Feb. 1, 2023 in Ottawa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld</span></span>
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<p>In the western provinces, the Liberals have declined as a rival centrist alternative. In British Columbia, for example, the provincial Liberal party is comprised of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-liberals-name-change-1.6597621">a coalition of federal Liberals and Conservatives</a> to run against the left-leaning New Democrats. </p>
<h2>Liberal consistency</h2>
<p>Why Ontario is so distinct on this front isn’t entirely clear. </p>
<p>Maybe it’s because rather than having a province-wide three-party system, Ontario is comprised of a number of local two-party systems: regions where Liberals compete against the PCs, Liberals compete against the NDP and the NDP competes against the PCs. </p>
<p>For example, Liberals and Conservatives compete alongside a weak NDP in a number of suburban Toronto ridings. In downtown Toronto, however, the PCs almost always finish third place behind the Liberals and the NDP. </p>
<p>In other parts of Ontario, like Windsor and northern Ontario, strong New Democrats compete against PC challengers.</p>
<p>Ontario’s political culture is also characterized by a shifting and powerful <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/where-has-the-centre-gone-in-ontario-politics">political centre</a>. </p>
<p>Doug Ford’s Conservatives <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-doug-fords-shift-to-the-centre-says-about-the-longevity-of-populism-182371">had to tone down their populist roots</a> in favour of a more moderate and pragmatic conservatism to hold onto power. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-doug-fords-shift-to-the-centre-says-about-the-longevity-of-populism-182371">What Doug Ford's shift to the centre says about the longevity of populism</a>
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<p>The NDP, similarly, has attempted to <a href="https://theconversation.com/3-challenges-facing-the-ontario-ndp-as-it-tries-to-win-more-support-184713">appeal to centrist voters</a> with their organized labour and activist roots. </p>
<p>But the Liberals have been consistent with their slightly left-leaning centrism that pledges competent and effective economic governance and pragmatic progressive policies.</p>
<p>Regardless of Ford’s win in 2022, Ontario voters change their minds quickly. His government’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greenbelt-oak-ridges-moraine-regulations-1.6692337">ambitious development plans</a> in housing and transportation have brought <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/planners-ford-housing-bill-1.6665015">scores of detractors</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1624756478526496770"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/opp-looking-into-complaints-made-against-ford-government-over-greenbelt-development-1.6220617">Ongoing Greenbelt scandals</a> evoke memories of <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/1307743/5-scandals-likely-to-haunt-the-liberals-during-ontario-election/">similar corruption scandals</a> that brought down the Wynne government. </p>
<p>That means there’s still a path forward for the Liberal party that will enable it to regain ground back from their perpetual competitors — and kick-start Ontario’s distinct three-party cycle anew.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While Ontario’s Liberals failed to recapture what they lost in 2018 in the 2022 election, the bigger picture shows this isn’t particularly noteworthy nor damning for the party.Sam Routley, PhD Student, Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1981332023-01-22T13:33:13Z2023-01-22T13:33:13ZHas Ontario’s housing ‘plan’ been built on a foundation of evidentiary sand?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/has-ontario-s-housing--plan--been-built-on-a-foundation-of-evidentiary-sand" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>In late 2022, the Ontario government adopted <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-23">Bill 23</a>, the <em>More Homes Built Faster Act</em>. The legislation made <a href="https://yourstoprotect.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2022/11/Big-Tent_-Statement-on-Bill-23-and-Greebelt-Land-Removal.pdf">sweeping changes</a> to the province’s land use planning system. </p>
<p>The province also passed <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-39">Bill 39 — <em>Better Municipal Governance Act, 2022</em></a> — which allows the mayors of Toronto and Ottawa to pass <a href="https://www.durhamradionews.com/archives/162756">bylaws related to provincial “priorities” like housing</a> with only a third of the support of their councils.</p>
<p>Premier Doug Ford’s government justified the adoption of this sweeping housing legislation, as well as the opening of parts of <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ontario-planning-development-of-50000-new-homes-on-protected-greenbelt/">Ontario’s Greenbelt</a> for development, on the basis of the need to address “the housing supply crisis.”</p>
<p>Specifically, the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8853748/doug-ford-london-housing/">province pointed</a> to a <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/mmah-housing-affordability-task-force-report-en-2022-02-07-v2.pdf">February 2022 provincial housing affordability task force report</a>, which said that Ontario needed to build 1.5 million homes over the next decade to address the shortage of housing.</p>
<p>The task force report provided the foundation for shredding of much of the province’s land-use planning and local governance structures, all in favour of development interests. But there has been very little <a href="https://cela.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Bill_23_The_Question_of_Need_11NOV2022.pdf">serious examination</a> of how the task force arrived at the 1.5 million homes figure.</p>
<h2>A report that doesn’t add up</h2>
<p>The provincial housing task force report stated that Ontario was 1.2 million houses short of the G7 average and needed to build 1.5 million new homes over the next 10 years. This would imply building 150,000 new dwellings per year.</p>
<p>In order to reach this conclusion, the task force report claimed that Canada has the lowest number of houses per 1,000 people of any G7 nation. However, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-affordable-housing-task-force-report-does-not-address-the-real-problems-176869">it has been observed</a> that the number of dwellings per 1,000 people is not a very useful comparison because people live in households.</p>
<p>In Ontario, because the average household size is <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/62f0026m/2017002/app-ann-g-eng.htm">2.58 people per household</a>, 1,000 people would only require 388 housing units, whereas in <a href="https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/macroeconomic/average-household-size-in-germany-2096124/">Germany</a>, for example, 1,000 people would require 507 dwelling units because of an average household size of only 1.97.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-affordable-housing-task-force-report-does-not-address-the-real-problems-176869">It has also been suggested</a> that the task force report was over-aggressive in calling for 150,000 new dwellings per year. </p>
<p>Ontario’s population grew by an average of <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2021/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&SearchText=Ontario&DGUIDlist=2021A000235&GENDERlist=1,2,3&STATISTIClist=1&HEADERlist=0">155,090 per year from 2016 to 2021</a>. Applying the Ontario average household size to this population growth rate reveals that the need for housing is roughly 60,000 new households per year, not 150,000. </p>
<p>The construction of 60,000 houses <a href="https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-note.housing-note--may-12-2021-.html">is actually lower</a> than the 79,000 housing starts Ontario averaged per year between 2016 and 2021.</p>
<p>What’s more, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-a-shortage-of-homes-isnt-the-main-reason-house-prices-keep-rising/">Ontario’s population</a> grew by 10.7 per cent from 2011 to 2021, while the number of occupied dwellings grew by 12.5 per cent. This means that the number of dwellings has actually been growing faster than the population.</p>
<h2>Unnecessary Greenbelt developments</h2>
<p>Ontario’s construction industry is already <a href="https://www.on-sitemag.com/infrastructure/construction-capacity-among-major-concerns-for-ontario-as-it-plans-four-line-28-5b-transit-expansion/1003965964/">working at capacity</a>. Toronto is reported as having the <a href="https://www.gta-homes.com/real-insights/developments/toronto-continues-to-house-north-americas-largest-number-of-cranes/">largest number</a> of active construction cranes in North America and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-real-estate-slow-sales-preconstruction-condos/">has recorded high</a> numbers of condominium completions.</p>
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<p>With respect to the supply of land — which was a key justification for the government’s decision to remove lands from the Greenbelt — <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/mmah-housing-affordability-task-force-report-en-2022-02-07-v2.pdf">the task force report itself confirmed</a> that there is plenty of land available in existing urban areas. This includes at least 250,000 new homes and apartments that were approved in 2019 or earlier but <a href="https://www.therecord.com/opinion/2022/01/18/waterloo-region-mayors-call-for-collaboration-to-fix-housing-crisis.html">have not yet been built</a>. </p>
<p>Research undertaken for the environmental organization Environmental Defence revealed that the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Areas have <a href="https://environmentaldefence.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Environmental-Defence-Housing-Affordability-Backgrounder-final-Jan-18.pdf">88,000 acres</a> of already designated new (or greenfield or undeveloped) development lands within existing settlement area boundaries. </p>
<p>That is more than three time the amount of greenfield land (26,000 acres) used for development over the preceding two decades.</p>
<h2>Building a sustainable and liveable province</h2>
<p>All of this evidence suggests that there was neither a shortage of already authorized housing starts to accommodate Ontario’s growing population, nor a shortage of already designated land on which to build homes. </p>
<p>Simply put, the province’s sweeping housing strategy has been built on a foundation of sand.</p>
<p>The reality is that the region is already in the midst of a <a href="https://www.on-sitemag.com/infrastructure/construction-capacity-among-major-concerns-for-ontario-as-it-plans-four-line-28-5b-transit-expansion/1003965964/">major development boom</a>. The problem is that it has been a boom that has done little to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/10/26/the-province-is-setting-a-housing-affordability-trap-for-toronto.html">improve housing affordability</a>, particularly for those at the lower end of the income scale who need it the most. </p>
<p>The housing “crisis” has had less to do with housing supply, and far more to do with the nature and location of what is being built.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://cela.ca/reviewing-bill-23-more-homes-built-faster-act-2022/">draconian measures</a> in Bills 23 and 39, and the province’s accompanying moves to remove lands from the Greenbelt and allow development in the <a href="https://ontariofarmlandtrust.ca/2022/12/12/bill-39-undermines-public-interest/">Duffins-Rouge Agricultural Reserve</a>, seem likely to make these problems worse than ever. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2022/12/02/understanding-the-fuss-about-ontario-bill-23.html">regressive changes</a> being made under the province’s housing legislation will accelerate urban sprawl and the accompanying losses of prime agricultural and natural heritage lands. </p>
<p>They would undermine efforts to build and protect real affordable housing and liveable communities, respond to a <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/reporttopics/envreports/env19/2019_EnergyConservationProgressReport.pdf">changing climate</a> and ensure democratic governance at the local level.</p>
<p>The questions of housing and development in the Greater Toronto Area are far more <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2022/04/17/missing-the-mark-on-housing.html">complicated</a> than a need to simply build more and faster. </p>
<p>Increased federal immigration targets put <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-immigration-to-canada-hits-record-in-2022/">additional stress</a> on the housing market. But if anything, that reinforces the need for a vision for a sustainable, liveable and affordable region and not one focused on maximizing the development industry’s returns on investment. </p>
<p>The debates prompted by the Ford government’s housing strategy may mark the beginning of a conversation about what that future might look like. They cannot be its end.</p>
<p><em>Joe Castrilli, Counsel with the Canadian Environmental Law Association, contributed to this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198133/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p>Evidence suggests that Ontario neither had a shortage of pre-authorized housing starts to accommodate its growing population, nor did it have a shortage of designated land to build such homes.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1963652022-12-14T20:57:55Z2022-12-14T20:57:55ZEven without strong powers, mayors find a way to get things done<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500809/original/file-20221213-22762-7g9lp5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C20%2C4621%2C2760&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Toronto Mayor John Tory speaks alongside Ontario premier Doug Ford during a joint news conference in Toronto in June 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Cole Burston</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Anyone following the debate around <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-strong-mayor-bill-39-passes-1.6678864">Ontario’s proposed Bill 39</a>, which would permit the mayors of Toronto and Ottawa to exercise “strong mayor” powers, may be under the impression that the leaders of these large Canadian cities have difficulty getting things done. </p>
<p>With the province of Ontario moving with such urgency to bestow new powers on Toronto’s John Tory and Ottawa’s Mark Sutcliffe, it would be natural to assume there’s a governance crisis at play. Are mayors being stymied by their councils, and are their policy agendas routinely scuttled by obstinate city councillors? </p>
<p>Not really.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00344893.2021.1993317">Mayors are generally successful in getting their policy preferences enacted</a>. They’re elected on a policy platform and slowly but surely, mayors usually find a way to push it past a council that may have been elected on a set of opposing priorities. </p>
<h2>Mayoralty successes</h2>
<p>Along with Tory, Toronto’s past recent mayors — <a href="https://torontolife.com/city/seven-long-years/">David Miller</a> and the late <a href="https://torontoist.com/2016/03/373870/">Rob Ford</a> — were able to enact major pillars of their election platforms in relative short order after being elected. </p>
<p>How did they do so in the absence of the type of <a href="https://www.wbez.org/stories/how-it-works-chicagos-city-council-and-the-mayors-office/c9bb4591-ec03-422c-bb84-0a62f46c551c">“strong mayor” powers their counterparts in some major American cities enjoy</a>? </p>
<p>Here’s how.</p>
<p><strong>They enjoy a deference to their office and mandate.</strong> Mayors certainly represent only one vote of many around the council table, but they’re <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/11/24/why-did-john-tory-get-more-strong-mayor-powers-because-of-his-city-wide-mandate-ford-government-argues.html?rf">the only one with a city-wide mandate</a>. They can claim support from voters throughout the municipality, and can argue that since they ran and won, they have a good handle on the mood and policy preferences of residents.</p>
<p><strong>They have a city-wide political machine.</strong> Accompanying a city-wide mandate is a political machine that supported that victory. These include skilled political operators, volunteers, well-placed supporters and hundreds of donors. This machine is invested in the mayor’s success and can be activated throughout the mayor’s mandate to drum up support for policy initiatives. </p>
<p><strong>They have a large, skilled team at city hall to help them.</strong> The mayor has the largest political office of anyone on council. Councillors have staff to assist them mainly with scheduling, administrative issues and constituency services, but mayors have policy staff who help draft and find support for their agenda.</p>
<p>These political staff work closely with city staff, including the city manager’s office, to design policies and services. They also closely manage the mayor’s coalition on council and find support among other councillors who may be partial to whatever initiative the mayor is hoping to pass. </p>
<p><strong>They are natural coalition-builders and can create and re-create alliances as needed.</strong> Every <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/10/25/torontos-new-progressive-councillors-say-they-dont-want-to-fight-mayor-john-tory-but-vow-to-do-what-they-can-to-safeguard-city-services.html">mayor has a contingent of councillors they can count on for support.</a> This group shares some type of policy or ideological alignment and can generally be expected to vote with the mayor. Mayors don’t have a caucus or cabinet in the same way a premier or the prime minister does, so this coalition can ebb and flow depending on the issue at hand. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/many-republican-mayors-are-advancing-climate-friendly-policies-without-saying-so-97223">Many Republican mayors are advancing climate-friendly policies without saying so</a>
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<p>Mayors work to find new partners and keep the door open for even hardened critics to vote with them on certain issues. Part of this process involves supporting local priorities for certain councillors, such as planning matters or traffic management issues. In this sense, mayors often trade support for local issues to get a policy passed. </p>
<p><strong>They have the ear of the premier and prime minister.</strong> Unlike any other member of council, the mayor has the ability to directly discuss policy matters with provincial premiers and, very often, the prime minister. Mayors, therefore, not only have the ability to gain high-level support for their initiatives, but they have the chance to work through inter-governmental funding or jurisdictional challenges prior to introducing items to council. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A dark-haired man sits among men and women at a round table, Canadian flags behind them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500816/original/file-20221213-22762-ku00pf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500816/original/file-20221213-22762-ku00pf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500816/original/file-20221213-22762-ku00pf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500816/original/file-20221213-22762-ku00pf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500816/original/file-20221213-22762-ku00pf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500816/original/file-20221213-22762-ku00pf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500816/original/file-20221213-22762-ku00pf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prime Minister Justin Trudeau listens to opening remarks at a meeting of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities Big City Mayors’ Caucus, in Ottawa, in December 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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<h2>Agenda can stall</h2>
<p>A mayor’s policy agenda can slow or fail. Mayors lose council votes from time to time, and occasionally cannot find the necessary support for certain items. But they often get much of what they set out to accomplish passed. </p>
<p>The support they enjoy from council, the public, the premier or even their own staff is contingent upon their actions and the decisions they make in office. If the popularity of a mayor dips, the challenges they face may compound and their agenda could ultimately stall. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man kneels in front of a group of people taking a selfie." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500813/original/file-20221213-24055-576dx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500813/original/file-20221213-24055-576dx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500813/original/file-20221213-24055-576dx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500813/original/file-20221213-24055-576dx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500813/original/file-20221213-24055-576dx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500813/original/file-20221213-24055-576dx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500813/original/file-20221213-24055-576dx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe leads a group selfie with members of the newly elected Ottawa city council in November 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Spencer Colby</span></span>
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<p>For the most part, however, mayors are quite skilled at using both the formal and informal levers and resources at their disposal to fulfil their policy agenda. </p>
<p>Nothing outlined above comes easily, which is why it’s tempting for some to use new powers to eliminate the need to consult and find coalitions among council members. But the processes mayors use to build support — through research, consultation, careful design and negotiation — makes for better and more comprehensive local public policy. </p>
<p>Time will tell if Bill 39 will allow mayors to overstep this process, but it certainly changes the well-established dynamics of local policymaking.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196365/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zachary Spicer receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. </span></em></p>Mayors are generally successful in getting their policy preferences enacted. That’s why Ontario’s Bill 39 isn’t really necessary.Zachary Spicer, Associate Professor, Public Policy and Administration, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1940972022-11-14T19:57:07Z2022-11-14T19:57:07ZPreventing use of the notwithstanding clause is a bad idea — and unnecessary<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494957/original/file-20221113-43015-ev1b56.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7856%2C5240&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks during a news conference, as Education Minister Stephen Lecce looks on in Toronto on Nov. 7, 2022. Ontario has repealed legislation that imposed a contract on 55,000 education workers and invoked the notwithstanding clause. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>During the Cold War era, American military strategists thought the Soviet Union would be deterred from dropping a nuclear bomb on North America only if the United States <a href="https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-russia-nuclear-arms-control">also built up sufficient nuclear weapons</a> capable of annihilating the Soviets. </p>
<p>This idea of mutually assured destruction was an abject failure, paradoxically pushing the world closer to the brink of a nuclear war. </p>
<p>There are similarities — metaphorically at least — <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-liberals-supreme-court-charter-notwithstanding-clause/">to calls to reintroduce a long-dormant power known as “disallowance”</a> into the current debate over Sec. 33, also known as the notwithstanding clause, of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. A relic of the 1867 Constitution, <a href="https://www.constitutionalstudies.ca/ccs-term/reservation-and-disallowance/?print=print-search">disallowance allows the federal government to revoke royal assent</a> to provincial laws, rendering them null.</p>
<p>Disallowance is being framed as a trump card in response to Ontario’s Bill 28, the so-called <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-43/session-1/bill-28">Keeping Students in Class Act, 2022</a>. Bill 28 included the province’s second use of the notwithstanding clause in two years, joining Québec and Saskatchewan, who have each also invoked Sec. 33. The Ford government has since <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/11/14/ford-government-kills-controversial-bill-that-ordered-cupe-school-staff-back-to-work.html">rescinded Bill 28</a> in order to prevent widespread labour conflict.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-what-ottawa-should-say-to-the-provinces-see-your-notwithstanding/">The argument</a> is that the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/disallowance">threat of disallowance</a> will counter the threat of the notwithstanding clause, and this mutually assured destruction will keep provinces in check. </p>
<p>The only problem is that Canada’s Constitution might just end up as collateral damage.</p>
<h2>The origins of Sec. 33</h2>
<p>When the terms of the Charter were being drafted, some provincial premiers feared it gave too much power to judges. Believing that legislatures should have the final say on public policy, they insisted on the addition of Sec. 33. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494958/original/file-20221113-20-vbttr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black-and-white photo shows a grey-haired man pointing his finger while talking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494958/original/file-20221113-20-vbttr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494958/original/file-20221113-20-vbttr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494958/original/file-20221113-20-vbttr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494958/original/file-20221113-20-vbttr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=696&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494958/original/file-20221113-20-vbttr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494958/original/file-20221113-20-vbttr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494958/original/file-20221113-20-vbttr5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=875&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Lougheed is seen in a 1983 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Dave Buston</span></span>
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<p>Saskatchewan Premier Allan Blakeney also feared that progressive legislation might be struck down by <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2017/the-notwithstanding-clauses-toxic-legacy/">distorted interpretations of Charter rights</a> that favoured the powerful and privileged. Alberta Premier Peter Lougheed later wrote <a href="https://www.constitutionalstudies.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Lougheed.pdf">that it was undemocratic to invoke Sec. 33</a> before a court had actually ruled on a law’s constitutionality. </p>
<p>Pre-emptive use, he argued, eliminated the essential judicial role in interpreting the Constitution. Lougheed even suggested that a constitutional amendment might be required to confirm that understanding.</p>
<p>Some wonder whether it might be time to get rid of Sec. 33 altogether. But that would be extremely difficult.</p>
<p>Removing Sec. 33 from the Constitution would require, at a minimum, the consent of at least seven provinces, representing 50 per cent of the population. It’s hard to imagine a circumstance in which Québec and probably several other provinces would agree to such a move. </p>
<p><a href="https://cbr.cba.org/index.php/cbr/article/view/4626/4485">Some constitutional experts</a> believe that using the federal power of disallowance, unused since 1943, is largely now prohibited by convention. They argue its use would severely damage federal-provincial relations and further politicize issues of rights.</p>
<p>A separate option is to seek guidance from the Supreme Court. One way is for the court to hear an appeal. </p>
<p>Québec’s religious symbols law, <a href="https://www.assnat.qc.ca/en/travaux-parlementaires/projets-loi/projet-loi-21-42-1.html">Bill 21</a> — currently before the province’s Court of Appeal — presents such an opportunity. There are, though, problems with going that route, including the fact that the case may take years to get to the Supreme Court, the issues it raises are case-specific and the court would be catapulted into a political maelstrom.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-quebecs-bill-21-could-be-vanquished-by-a-rarely-used-charter-provision-188261">How Québec's Bill 21 could be vanquished by a rarely used Charter provision</a>
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<h2>Seek Supreme Court reference</h2>
<p>In our opinion, the best alternative is for the federal government to seek the Supreme Court’s advice on a series of selected questions, known as a <a href="https://www.constitutionalstudies.ca/2019/07/reference-question/#:%7E:text=A%20reference%20question%20is%20a,rule%20on%20a%20reference%20question.">“reference opinion.”</a> </p>
<p>The court has ruled on Sec. 33 only once, in the 1988 case of <a href="https://decisions.scc-csc.ca/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/384/index.do?q=ford+v+quebec"><em>Ford v. Quebec</em></a>. In that decision, it gave the clause very broad scope. It indicated that any limits were largely formal in nature: the legislature must expressly state that it operates notwithstanding the Charter right provisions of Secs. 2 and 7-15. It also ruled the clause cannot apply retroactively. </p>
<p>As Ontario’s recent move illustrated, the 1988 <em>Ford</em> decision is functioning about as well as any other 1988 Ford still on the road. At the time, it was understood that politics would be a highly effective constraint against its overuse. Sec. 33 was commonly referred to as the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/notwithstanding-clause">“nuclear option”</a> that would be punished at the ballot box if invoked to deny or avoid constitutionally guaranteed rights. </p>
<p>But times have changed. Governmental musings about using the clause are <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/notwithstanding-clause-explained-ford-1.6641293">no longer taboo or even that extraordinary</a>. In 2022, the premiers of Ontario and Québec were each returned with bigger majorities despite using the clause. </p>
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<img alt="A man stands with raised hands behind a sign that reads Continuons." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494959/original/file-20221113-29604-7lwsul.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494959/original/file-20221113-29604-7lwsul.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494959/original/file-20221113-29604-7lwsul.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494959/original/file-20221113-29604-7lwsul.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494959/original/file-20221113-29604-7lwsul.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494959/original/file-20221113-29604-7lwsul.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494959/original/file-20221113-29604-7lwsul.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Québec’s François Legault makes a victory speech to supporters on election night in Québec City in October 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson</span></span>
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<p>Canadians seem comfortable with the view of rights that are guaranteed for them but not necessarily for others. The <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/cupe-strike-labour-board-ruling-expected-1.6642824">apparent climb-down</a> by Ontario’s premier is a welcome counterpoint to all of this — yet at the time of this writing, Bill 28 remains in place.</p>
<p>Questions that could be asked of the Supreme Court include: </p>
<p>• When can section 33 be used?</p>
<p>• How does the word “notwithstanding” in Sec. 33 relate to the words “notwithstanding anything” in Sec. 28’s equal rights guarantee? </p>
<p>• How can the clause be amended? </p>
<p>A Supreme Court reference could look beyond the highly polarized reactions to any particular law and get at the heart of the issue: How does Sec. 33 fit with our current constitutional democracy?</p>
<p>Rather than stoking a constitutional crisis through disallowance, this reference would allow the federal government to de-escalate tensions and, most importantly, clarify the scope of the notwithstanding clause.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194097/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kerri Anne Froc receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC). She is the Chair of the National Association of Women and the Law (NAWL). Her opinions are her own and not necessarily those of NAWL. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carissima Mathen receives funding from the Law Foundation of Ontario and the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC). Her opinions are her own.</span></em></p>A Supreme Court reference on the notwithstanding clause could look beyond the highly polarized reactions to any particular law and get at the heart of the issue.Kerri Anne Froc, Associate Law Professor, University of New BrunswickCarissima Mathen, Professor of Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1942362022-11-10T22:26:20Z2022-11-10T22:26:20ZOntario education strike fallout: Workers’ anger about economic inequalities and labour precarity could spark wider job action<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494506/original/file-20221109-11077-oeqabb.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=111%2C190%2C2830%2C3116&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">CUPE members and supporters join a demonstration outside the office of Parm Gill, Member of Provincial Parliament for the riding of Milton, Ont., on Nov. 4, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nick Iwanyshyn</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Labour strife in Canada <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63503334">grabbed international attention</a> after the Ontario government passed a law that made an education workers’ strike <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/11/03/ontario-legislation-imposing-contract-on-education-workers-set-to-pass-today.html">illegal</a> and set fines for striking workers, invoking a clause in Canada’s Charter of Rights and Freedoms that allowed it to bypass constitutional challenges.</p>
<p>After the 55,000 workers went on strike anyway, with multiple labour unions and some of the public <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/with-several-schools-closed-during-cupe-strike-some-parents-are-scrambling-to-find-child-care-while-supporting-striking-education-workers">rallying against the move</a>, the government has since <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-lecce-education-contract-negotiations-1.6644075">promised to repeal</a> the legislation, ending the walkout.</p>
<p>But these events may mark what is likely just the beginning of pronounced resistance <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/education-unions-concern-notwithstanding-clause-1.6641575">from education workers over upcoming months</a>.</p>
<h2>Previous unsettled bargaining</h2>
<p>The effects of previous bargaining in 2019 in Ontario left many in the education sector unsettled. </p>
<p>Throughout the pandemic, media coverage has largely focused on student outcomes — with concerns over social isolation, <a href="https://www.camh.ca/en/camh-news-and-stories/majority-of-ontario-students-surveyed-report-feeling-depressed--about-the-future-because-of-covid-19">mental health</a> and students <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/students-falling-behind-pandemic-1.6014355">falling behind academically</a> — and rightly so. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mike-harriss-common-sense-attack-on-ontario-schools-is-back-and-so-are-teachers-strikes-130190">Mike Harris’s 'common sense' attack on Ontario schools is back — and so are teachers' strikes</a>
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<p>However, over the past few years, education workers have themselves faced similar challenges with pandemic fatigue, limited government support <a href="https://theconversation.com/4-steps-to-teacher-recovery-from-compassion-fatigue-and-burnout-during-covid-19-and-beyond-151407">and occupational burnout</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://abacusdata.ca/ford-education-workers-november-2022/">Public opinion</a> appears <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/poll-finds-6-in-10-ontarians-blame-ford-government-for-education-workers-job-action-1.6141215">to be on the side of educators</a>: Six in 10 Ontarians “blamed the Ford government for the ongoing labour disruption involving tens of thousands of education workers that … forced schools to close for in-person learning,” according to an Abacus Data poll conducted Nov. 4 and 5.</p>
<p>This most recent strife may well represent the feelings of those in the middle <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/longforms/the-working-class-has-had-enough/">or working classes today</a> who are also angry about effects of social austerity. These <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ontario-can-recover-from-doug-fords-covid-19-governance-disaster-159783">have come into sharp focus through the pandemic</a>, especially in health care and long-term care for seniors.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1587240753306210308"}"></div></p>
<h2>Anger about insecurity and its effects</h2>
<p>Anger relates to <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2004/09/113782">workers’ economic insecurity</a>. According to economist Guy Standing, those who lack employment protections are increasingly frustrated by the lack of opportunity, <a href="https://www.hse.ru/data/2013/01/28/1304836059/Standing.%20The_Precariat__The_New_Dangerous_Class__-Bloomsbury_USA(2011).pdf">employment security, as well as the promise of social mobility</a>. </p>
<p>In my own research with unemployed and underemployed teachers in Ontario, many described their overall feelings towards work and employment experiences negatively. This includes the inability to <a href="https://journalhosting.ucalgary.ca/index.php/cjeap/article/view/43150">secure employment and expectations about unpaid work</a>, as well as feeling a lack of community, supports and career progression. </p>
<p>Teachers of course are only one group of education workers. There are thousands of early childhood educators, education assistants, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/school-caretakers-custodian-cupe-strike-1.6640986">custodial staff and others</a> who are <a href="https://theconversation.com/precarious-employment-in-education-impacts-workers-families-and-students-115766">employed precariously in the field of education.</a></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/children-across-canada-deserve-a-professional-early-childhood-education-workforce-181124">Children across Canada deserve a professional early childhood education workforce</a>
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<p>This isn’t limited to workers in schools. Precarious forms of employment have increasingly been the norm for labourers <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-rich-helped-create-2016s-angry-populism-57710">across sectors, while the division between the “haves” and the “have nots” widens</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People seen in fog with picket signs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494507/original/file-20221109-16873-o5zngv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494507/original/file-20221109-16873-o5zngv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494507/original/file-20221109-16873-o5zngv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494507/original/file-20221109-16873-o5zngv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494507/original/file-20221109-16873-o5zngv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494507/original/file-20221109-16873-o5zngv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494507/original/file-20221109-16873-o5zngv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Education workers seen at a demonstration in Milton, Ont., on Nov. 4, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nick Iwanyshyn</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Falling behind?</h2>
<p>Concerns <a href="https://pepso.ca/documents/pepso-glb-final-lores_2018-06-18_r4-for-website.pdf">about “falling behind” are also front and centre</a> for many workers at this time. </p>
<p>Inflation is a pressing issue for citizens and families. Workers often not only contend with rising prices for goods and services, but in a context of historic under-investment in public services, they also often feel as <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-economist-explains-what-you-need-to-know-about-inflation-188959">though inflation is even more pronounced than the numbers suggest</a>. </p>
<p>For education workers in the province, this has been compounded by public sector wage ceilings largely imposed in 2019. </p>
<p>Ontario’s wage cap bill (Bill 124) remains a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/bill-124-court-challenge-ontario-1.6579655">controversial and perhaps unconstitutional law, and is currently under a court challenge</a>. </p>
<p>Similarly, the use of the Charter’s <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ford-cupe-notwithstanding-canadian-unions/">notwithstanding clause</a> by the Ontario government demonstrated another potential misuse of <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-school-strike-governments-use-of-the-notwithstanding-clause-again-is-an-assault-on-labour-relations-193824?">power — again seeking to push workers further backwards</a>. </p>
<h2>Privatization agenda</h2>
<p>Many are also concerned that the Ford government’s pandemic policies have accelerated a pre-pandemic privatization agenda. For example, in the spring of 2021, the province revealed it was considering <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/permanent-online-school-1.5964008">making virtual school an option beyond the pandemic</a>.</p>
<p>Education researcher Paul Bocking notes that <a href="https://tvo.me/tvo-partners-with-ministry-of-education-to-launch-the-ontario-online-course-preview/">Ontario’s introduction of e-learning courses through TVO/TFO</a> serves to make these courses more marketable for international revenue. </p>
<p>Heavy-handed labour negotiations in this context serves to further alienate workers and voters from the political centre. </p>
<p>Indeed, it could also potentially fuel more extreme <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/08969205211063131">forms of populism</a>.</p>
<h2>Pandemic fatigue</h2>
<p>Years of COVID-19 and public health measures, including masking, lockdowns and vaccination campaigns, appear to have <a href="https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/2xvbr">left citizens exhausted</a>.</p>
<p>The so-called freedom convoy that descended upon Canada’s Parliament Hill in Ottawa earlier this year demonstrated the outright <a href="https://theconversation.com/freedom-convoy-protesters-anger-is-misdirected-176969">anger of citizens</a>, both those who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/29/world/americas/canada-trucker-protest.html">oppose vaccine mandates</a> as well as <a href="https://www.blogto.com/city/2022/02/angry-ontario-man-asks-freedom-convoy-truckers-go-speak-doug-ford/">those impacted by the protests</a>.</p>
<h2>Burnout leading to resistance</h2>
<p>Additionally, educator burnout has been a serious issue across Canada. American media have also reported education workers quitting in droves, <a href="https://fortune.com/2022/06/15/teachers-burnout-workers-quitting-great-resignation/">typically citing burnout</a>, low pay and lack of support as the primary drivers of <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-america-teachers-great-resignation/?leadSource=uverify%20wall">quitting extremely demanding jobs</a>. </p>
<p>The pandemic experience was, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-educational-assistants-make-it-possible-for-children-to-learn-for-that/">overall, a negative one</a> for education workers. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-largely-female-teaching-force-is-standing-up-for-public-education-130633">A largely female teaching force is standing up for public education</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>It should come as no surprise then, when workers feel emotions <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/support-staff-feeling-anxious-1.6304194">such as burnout, fatigue and disrespect</a>, they may begin to resist the imposition <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/11/03/doug-ford-is-turning-public-education-into-a-combat-zone.html">of further unreasonable demands placed upon them and their work</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person with a sign that says 'we won't work for peanuts.'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494510/original/file-20221109-11121-bui6fr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494510/original/file-20221109-11121-bui6fr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494510/original/file-20221109-11121-bui6fr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494510/original/file-20221109-11121-bui6fr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494510/original/file-20221109-11121-bui6fr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494510/original/file-20221109-11121-bui6fr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/494510/original/file-20221109-11121-bui6fr.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Education workers strike on the picket line in Kingston, Ont., Nov. 4, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lars Hagberg</span></span>
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<h2>A better future?</h2>
<p>Examining current labour strife in Ontario provides us with a glimpse of what the future might entail. </p>
<p>Issues impacting education workers are <a href="https://policyalternatives.ca/publications/reports/no-safe-harbour">the same</a> as those impacting most workers today — including precarious forms of employment that leave workers economically insecure, emotionally frustrated and angry.</p>
<p>Collective action and solidarity — whether through a formalized labour group or not — remains the best way to improve the economic lives of all workers. </p>
<p>Could this look like <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9079265/union-power-organizing-efforts-starbucks-labour-movement/">more unionization drives</a> across various sectors? A recent American study found that being unionized “throughout one’s career is associated with a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/00197939221129261">$1.3 million mean increase in lifetime earnings</a>” — more than a post-secondary degree. </p>
<p>As Standing notes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“There has been a systematic dismantlement of institutions and mechanisms of social solidarity time-honoured zones of empathy, in which ethics and standards of conduct are passed from one generation to another. Such institutions <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/a-new-class-canada-neglects-the-precariat-at-its-peril/article24944758">stand against the market, protecting their members</a>.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Education workers appear to be on the front lines of the continued <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199283262.001.0001">struggle against neoliberalism</a> and forms of privatization and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-inequality-is-growing-in-the-us-and-around-the-world-191642">extreme economic inequalities</a> witnessed across the globe. </p>
<p>Perhaps workers have finally had enough, and will continue to stand their ground until their voices are heard.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194236/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Mindzak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Frustration about unsettled bargaining that predates the pandemic could get channelled into pronounced resistance from educational workers during the coming months.Michael Mindzak, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Education, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1938242022-11-03T20:57:07Z2022-11-03T20:57:07ZOntario school strike: Government’s use of the notwithstanding clause — again — is an assault on labour relations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493362/original/file-20221103-14-1xljo9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C846%2C5384%2C2740&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford sits in the Ontario legislature during Question Period as members debate a bill meant to avert a planned strike by 55,000 education workers. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ontario-school-strike--government-s-use-of-the-notwithstanding-clause-—-again-—-is-an-assault-on-labour-relations" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The government of Ontario has passed <a href="https://www.ola.org/sites/default/files/node-files/bill/document/pdf/2022/2022-10/b028_e.pdf">Bill 28</a> imposing a four-year contract on 50,000 education support workers and making it illegal to strike.</p>
<p>The back-to-work legislation affects educational assistants, early childhood educators, librarians, administrative staff and custodians represented <a href="https://cupe.on.ca/">by CUPE</a>. It also invokes the so-called notwithstanding clause to insulate the government from future judicial scrutiny.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1588287120908570624"}"></div></p>
<p>With its imposition of a contract upon these workers, and the Ontario government’s invocation of the notwithstanding clause in the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-notwithstanding-cupe-strike-1.6635564">for the second time</a>, there’s a lot to dissect in Bill 28.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-uses-the-notwithstanding-clause-for-political-benefit-162594">Doug Ford uses the notwithstanding clause for political benefit</a>
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<h2>Back-to-work laws in a nutshell</h2>
<p>Most unionized workers have both a statutory and — as of 2015 — a <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/14610/index.do">Charter right to strike</a> in pursuit of a new collective agreement. Despite this, back-to-work legislation has been passed by governments of differing political stripes. </p>
<p>In their book <a href="https://utorontopress.com/9781442600966/from-consent-to-coercion/"><em>From Consent to Coercion</em>, political scholars Leo Panitch and Donald Swartz</a> chronicled the increasing use of back-to-work legislation. They coined the term “permanent exceptionalism” to describe what they saw as governments consistently characterizing particular labour disputes as exceptional to justify back-to-work legislation, even while leaving intact the overriding law permitting the strike. </p>
<p>Panitch and Swartz argued that this was a way for governments to avoid political fallout from simply denying the right to strike outright. Instead, they do it by stealth — case-by-case as apparent one-offs. </p>
<p>But with the right to strike now afforded Charter protection, governments have to think about the legal fallout too. Bill 28, after all, bears many of the hallmarks of Ontario’s Putting Students First Act or <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/on/laws/stat/so-2012-c-11/latest/so-2012-c-11.html">Bill 115</a>. </p>
<p>Bill 115 was passed in 2012 under the Liberal government of Dalton McGuinty. It, too, pre-empted an otherwise lawful strike amid negotiations with the province’s teachers. It also imposed a contract rather than leaving outstanding issues to a neutral third party.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Men and women in parkas and hats carry red signs that read Respect Collective Bargaining." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493372/original/file-20221103-15-4pac3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493372/original/file-20221103-15-4pac3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493372/original/file-20221103-15-4pac3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493372/original/file-20221103-15-4pac3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493372/original/file-20221103-15-4pac3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493372/original/file-20221103-15-4pac3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493372/original/file-20221103-15-4pac3y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Amid a wave of one-day walkouts, teachers of the Ottawa-Carleton District School Board carry picket signs in protest of Ontario’s Bill 115 a decade ago in Ottawa. The bill was later deemed unconstitutional.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Cole Burston</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It was <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/on/onsc/doc/2016/2016onsc2197/2016onsc2197.html">deemed unconstitutional</a> four years later, requiring the government to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/02/02/ontario-elementary-teachers-awarded-103m-as-remedy-for-liberals-bill-115.html">pay millions in damages</a> to the workers whose Charter rights had been violated.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://brocku.ca/brock-news/2018/10/brock-researcher-examines-constitutional-protections-for-canadian-workers-right-to-strike/">argued elsewhere</a> that some back-to-work legislation is <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-back-to-work-legislation-unconstitutional-107561">likely constitutional</a>. But Bill 28 would almost assuredly be unconstitutional — except for the invocation of the notwithstanding clause.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/is-back-to-work-legislation-unconstitutional-107561">Is back-to-work legislation unconstitutional?</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Notwithstanding clause’s original aim</h2>
<p>The notwithstanding clause, or Sec. 33 of the Charter, permits governments to pass laws <a href="https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/const/page-12.html#h-51">“notwithstanding” that those laws violate specific provisions in the Charter</a>. </p>
<p>At first glance, this is perplexing. Why adopt a constitutional Bill of Rights that can be ignored? However, at the time of the Charter’s creation, some provincial premiers were skeptical. They feared the dampening of their legislative supremacy via judicial overreach. Sec. 33 was the escape hatch offered to quell their fears. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-history-of-the-notwithstanding-clause-90508">The history of the notwithstanding clause</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>Québec had its own reasons for systematically attaching the clause to legislation in the Charter’s early days given that it was the only province <a href="https://www.canadahistoryproject.ca/1982/1982-07-quebec-refusal.html#:%7E:text=Another%20reason%20Quebec%20wouldn't,in%20the%20rest%20of%20Canada">not to have signed on to the Charter</a>. Outside of that, however, Sec. 33 was rarely used in the first decades of the Charter — and doing so came to be understood by many as political suicide. </p>
<p>Its more recent invocation by governments in Ontario, Québec and Saskatchewan is concerning. Some fear it signals the move may soon <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2021/06/10/doug-fords-government-is-using-the-notwithstanding-clause-for-the-first-time-in-ontario-history-when-is-use-of-the-constitutional-override-legitimate.html">become commonplace</a>. </p>
<p>Additionally, its pre-emptive use, as is the case with Bill 28, is particularly indicative of constitutional recklessness. </p>
<p>The working presumption when the Charter was being hammered out is that legislatures want to protect their citizens’ rights. If true, it follows that the escape hatch of Sec. 33 is a device that should be used only after a law has been deemed unconstitutional.</p>
<p>This allows legislatures to review the courts’ rationales with consideration and thoughtfulness before determining whether they should proceed nonetheless, reserving Sec. 33’s use for exceptional circumstances. </p>
<h2>The nuclear option?</h2>
<p>There may be <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-defence-of-the-notwithstanding-clause-why-canada-should-hold-onto-it-186375">no cut-and-dried answer</a> as to what may be deemed judicial overreach that warrants the use of Sec. 33. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493371/original/file-20221103-20-t00bk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A grey-haired man is seen in profile as he makes a speech." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493371/original/file-20221103-20-t00bk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493371/original/file-20221103-20-t00bk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493371/original/file-20221103-20-t00bk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493371/original/file-20221103-20-t00bk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493371/original/file-20221103-20-t00bk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493371/original/file-20221103-20-t00bk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493371/original/file-20221103-20-t00bk6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=583&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Saskatchewan Premier Allan Blakeney makes a speech in this 1977 photo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it’s perhaps noteworthy that former Saskatchewan premier Allan Blakeney, <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/may-2017/the-notwithstanding-clauses-toxic-legacy/">one of the most ardent critics of the adoption of the Charter at the time</a>, was concerned about socially conservative judges undoing progressive social legislation.</p>
<p>This phenomenon was at play in the so-called <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/1/17/7628543/rand-paul-lochner">Lochner era in the United States</a>. What we would now consider basic employment standards laws were overturned on the basis that they contradicted the right of employers and employees to negotiate contracts. </p>
<p>Regardless of Blakeney’s views on the notwithstanding clause, it’s still hard to reconcile the initial purpose of Sec. 33 with its current potential use: to prevent 55,000 citizens, among the lowest-paid workers in Ontario’s education sector, to seek restitution for the violation of their Charter rights that Bill 28 would likely cause. </p>
<p>Whatever we might think about whether Ontario is justified in preventing the workers’ strike, neither the imposition of a collective agreement nor the invocation of Sec. 33 is necessary to meet the government’s stated goal of avoiding a labour disruption. </p>
<p>In fact, it may have upped the ante. In addition to a vow by CUPE to strike, others have pledged <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9247567/opseu-walk-out-solidarity-cupe/?utm_source=%40globalnewsto&utm_medium=Twitter">to walk off the job in solidarity</a>.</p>
<p>It’s mostly been right-leaning provincial governments that have recently invoked Sec. 33. However, it bears noting that if we normalize its use, we normalize it for governments of all political stripes.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1587858159602962434"}"></div></p>
<h2>Labour relations on the brink</h2>
<p>While most contract negotiations are settled without labour disruption, the threat of disruption is used as leverage by unions to move past impasses where they occur. </p>
<p>Ontario Superior Court Justice Thomas Lederer, in his decision on Bill 115, said the province’s labour relations are rooted in the notion that “the employer has power and the employee does not” and that <a href="https://www.canlii.org/en/on/onsc/doc/2016/2016onsc2197/2016onsc2197.html">“the ability of employees to act collectively”</a> narrows that power gap. </p>
<p>Threats of labour disruption act to motivate the parties, usually in the days and hours leading up to a strike deadline, to reach a settlement neither party would propose but both can accept. </p>
<p>Ontario Education Minister Stephen Lecce’s stated refusal to <a href="https://www.chch.com/lecce-warns-that-ontario-education-talks-wont-proceed-unless-strike-cancelled/">even consider CUPE counter-offers</a> unless it first calls off all job action is at odds with his stated intention to keep kids in school. It’s also at odds with the very heart of our labour relations model.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193824/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alison Braley-Rattai does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Ontario government’s latest use of the notwithstanding clause is at odds with its stated intention to keep kids in school amid a labour dispute — and at odds with the heart of labour relations norms.Alison Braley-Rattai, Associate Professor, Labour studies, Brock UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1891992022-09-08T20:14:32Z2022-09-08T20:14:32ZWith family doctors heading for the exits, addressing the crisis in primary care is key to easing pressure on emergency rooms<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482397/original/file-20220901-14792-k5pnkl.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=410%2C506%2C5418%2C3382&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Until the government acknowledges the critical role family physicians have in population health and on easing the burden on acute hospital care, pressures will only be relieved temporarily.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Ford government’s recently released plan to ease pressure on Ontario emergency rooms makes no mention of the <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/abdulla-you-want-a-family-doctor-in-ontario-sorry-its-not-going-to-be-easy">mass exodus of physicians from family practice</a>. With that omission, the province’s <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/moh-plan-to-stay-open-en-2022-08-18.pdf">Plan to Stay Open</a> ignores the central role of family doctors in the health-care system, and sets itself up for failure.</p>
<p>A strong primary care system, identified as <a href="http://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1993.03500190088041">the cornerstone of health care</a>, keeps patients <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-015-0705-7">away from emergency rooms</a> and plays a huge role in encouraging <a href="https://doi.org/10.9778/cmajo.20170007">self-management of illness and prevention of disease</a>.</p>
<h2>Critical role of primary care</h2>
<p>Focusing mainly on hospitals to fix the problem is akin to closing the barn door after the horses have fled. We must look upstream to primary care where about <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/82-625-x/2020001/article/00004-eng.htm">86 per cent of Canadians trust family doctors</a> to assist them in staying healthy. </p>
<p>In my ongoing research on integrated health-care systems — including <a href="https://health.gov.on.ca/en/pro/programs/connectedcare/oht/">Ontario Health Teams</a> and the capacity for family physicians to inform system change — I see a high degree of skepticism among family physicians about influencing system reform, since many have previously seen their input not heeded or not even sought. Time also limits their participation in health system research.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a white coat is examining a little girl using a stethoscope, while another woman stands behind the girl." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483575/original/file-20220908-9311-ypbwpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483575/original/file-20220908-9311-ypbwpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483575/original/file-20220908-9311-ypbwpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483575/original/file-20220908-9311-ypbwpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483575/original/file-20220908-9311-ypbwpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483575/original/file-20220908-9311-ypbwpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483575/original/file-20220908-9311-ypbwpr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario’s plan ignores the central role of family doctors in the health-care system, and sets itself up for failure.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Until the government acknowledges the critical role family physicians have in population health and on easing the burden on acute hospital care, pressures will only be relieved temporarily. At the same time, family physicians are fed up. No wonder that some are <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/burned-out-closing-practices-family-doctors-warn-health-care-situation-will-likely-get-worse">walking away because they “can’t take it anymore</a>.” </p>
<h2>Increasing challenges in family medicine</h2>
<p>Family physicians are dealing with significant burnout, ever-increasing workloads, unrealistic patient demands and <a href="https://www.cfp.ca/content/57/9/983.long">lack of respect from other specialties</a>. In addition to having a passion for providing continuous, comprehensive care, family physicians also need to acquire business acumen to manage overhead costs, performance management skills to hire, fire and coach office staff, and administrative prowess to deal with the mounds of paperwork that is done after the patient leaves (and is mostly non-billable). </p>
<p>Despite the value that most of us place on having a family doctor that we trust with our cradle-to-grave health issues, they are among the <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/why-five-million-canadians-have-no-hope-of-getting-a-family-doctor">lowest paid and the least respected physicians, yet they have the most knowledge about the inefficiencies</a> in a health-care system that is coming apart more each day. </p>
<p>To make matters worse, supply is decreasing. This year’s residency applications through the <a href="https://www.carms.ca/the-match/">Canadian Resident Matching Service</a> (CaRMS) indicates that <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/fewer-medical-students-are-pursuing-family-practices-and-these-doctors-are-worried-1.6516261">the number of medical school graduates choosing family medicine as their top choice for training spots is declining steadily</a>. </p>
<p>This should be worrying for all of us as patients. More exploration into why family medicine is no longer seen as a worthy profession is sorely needed as more and more patients will be unable to access the continuous, comprehensive care they require. </p>
<h2>More Canadians without a family doctor</h2>
<p>News headlines continue to highlight that <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2022/07/30/an-unhealthy-shortage-of-family-doctor.html">more patients across the country are without a family doctor</a> and fewer doctors want to enter, or stay, in family practice. </p>
<p>In addition to diminished supply of new family doctors, many are heading for the exits earlier than anticipated. Family physicians are choosing to retire early, and in some cases <a href="https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/burned-out-closing-practices-family-doctors-warn-health-care-situation-will-likely-get-worse">walking away from large and long-standing practices</a> leaving more and more patients without a family physician and having no other option but to visit the emergency department for their health concerns. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A stethoscope on a desk in the foreground, with a doctor out of focus sitting at the desk with his hands to his face" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483576/original/file-20220908-9292-p13ez5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/483576/original/file-20220908-9292-p13ez5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483576/original/file-20220908-9292-p13ez5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483576/original/file-20220908-9292-p13ez5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483576/original/file-20220908-9292-p13ez5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483576/original/file-20220908-9292-p13ez5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/483576/original/file-20220908-9292-p13ez5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Family physicians are dealing with significant burnout and ever-increasing workloads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Increasing the number of family physicians is important but retaining those that we already have should be viewed as absolutely critical. With the <a href="https://www.cma.ca/news-releases-and-statements/critical-family-physician-shortage-must-be-addressed-cma">average age of a family doctor in Canada at 49</a>, it’s not hard to predict that more retirements (planned or otherwise) will have a detrimental impact on the health of Canadians. </p>
<h2>Primary care challenges</h2>
<p>Primary care is not without its own challenges. For those that are lucky enough to have a family doctor, the time to see them varies, and <a href="https://healthydebate.ca/2015/11/topic/what-does-access-to-primary-care-really-mean/">access issues</a> are a common theme in patient complaints. Different physician offices use different appointment booking practices and scheduling rules, which can impact patient access ratings. </p>
<p>There are inequities between family physicians with solo practices in comparison to those who are attached to a family health team — health-care organizations that provide primary health care to communities and include various health professionals such as nurses, dietitians, social workers and others who share aspects of patient care with doctors. </p>
<p>Ontario has done better than most areas of Canada with the <a href="https://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/pro/programs/fht/">introduction of family health teams in 2005</a>, with team-based primary care reporting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mayocp.2019.01.038">better outcomes for both patients and providers</a>. </p>
<p>But no new family health teams have been funded since 2012, which is a problem. Ontario Health Teams were introduced in 2019, and offer potential to influence what is currently a cadre of services (including primary care, hospitals, long-term care, home care, health support services) to function better as an integrated health system covering a geographic region. </p>
<p>Ontario Health Teams do not provide direct care, but are tasked with building a better system of care, working to break down silos between health-care providers and organizations to function better for patients. Primary care must be a major player in these. </p>
<p>Political will is required to invest in the entire health-care system and not ignore the fact that primary care represents a very large part of this system. We have a capacity crisis for certain — but cannot fix only one flat tire when all the tires are flat!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189199/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colleen Grady does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A strong primary care system keeps patients away from emergency departments and helps patients self-manage illnesses. But Ontario’s plan to ease pressure on emergency rooms ignores family medicine.Colleen Grady, Associate Professor, Family Medicine, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1841032022-06-19T12:50:59Z2022-06-19T12:50:59ZOntario must commit to affordable housing for all, not attainable housing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469325/original/file-20220616-22-h57bd7.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C5997%2C4007&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A for sale sign outside a home indicates that it has sold for over the asking price, in Ottawa, in March 2021. House prices and rents have become increasingly more unaffordable in Ontario over the past few years.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ontario-must-commit-to-affordable-housing-for-all--not-attainable-housing" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>During his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53w6RP_ADDM">provincial election victory speech on June 2</a>, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he aimed to build more housing to make the housing market more “attainable” for everyone.</p>
<p>Although most people probably didn’t pay close attention to the specific choice of words Ford used during his speech, it’s alarming that Ford abandoned the word “affordable” in lieu of “attainable.” </p>
<p>Instead of applying a word that speaks to the economic side of the housing crisis, his script writer opted for a term that means achievable, realistic, manageable. </p>
<p>This is troubling because it indicates that Ford is actively shifting the discourse away from an already very loose concept of affordability to a terrain that is even less defined. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a suit waves from behind a podium" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469331/original/file-20220616-16-91hquj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469331/original/file-20220616-16-91hquj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469331/original/file-20220616-16-91hquj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469331/original/file-20220616-16-91hquj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469331/original/file-20220616-16-91hquj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469331/original/file-20220616-16-91hquj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469331/original/file-20220616-16-91hquj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford, with his wife Karla, celebrates on stage after being re-elected premier of Ontario.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In February, Ford presented the <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1001289/ontario-appoints-housing-affordability-task-force">Housing Affordability Task Force</a> report, recognizing the existence of the housing crisis and the need for urgent affordable housing. </p>
<p>However, despite acknowledging the need for more affordable rentals, the report failed to explain <em>how</em> exactly the province would achieve this. This is somewhat ironic, given the title of the task force. </p>
<p>In addition, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontarios-affordable-housing-task-force-report-does-not-address-the-real-problems-176869">the report does not address some of the problems pertaining to housing</a> such as evictions, rent control and homelessness.</p>
<h2>Deepening housing crisis</h2>
<p>Statistics Canada defines housing affordability as <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/82-229-x/2009001/envir/hax-eng.htm">no more than 30 per cent of household income</a> being spent on housing-related expenses. </p>
<p>However, in the Greater Toronto Area and in Ontario broadly, there is a huge disparity between the rise of housing prices and household incomes. </p>
<p>The real estate market <a href="https://trreb.ca/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2204.pdf">has witnessed a tremendous increase</a>. Since 2010, it has almost tripled, both within the Greater Toronto Area (to $1,254,436 from $431,262 in April 2022), as well as within Ontario (to $923,000 from $329,000 in 2021). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A real estate sign on the lawn of a house" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469328/original/file-20220616-13-3n2541.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469328/original/file-20220616-13-3n2541.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469328/original/file-20220616-13-3n2541.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469328/original/file-20220616-13-3n2541.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469328/original/file-20220616-13-3n2541.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469328/original/file-20220616-13-3n2541.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469328/original/file-20220616-13-3n2541.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A sold sign is displayed in front of a house in the Riverdale area of Toronto in September 2021. One of the key reasons for the housing crisis in the Greater Toronto Area is the disparity between increasing housing prices and stagnant household income.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Evan Buhler</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/document/2016-census-highlights/fact-sheet-7-income">the average household income has increased only by about a third</a>. This disparity between increased housing prices and stagnant household income is the key reason for the housing crisis in Ontario, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area. </p>
<h2>Housing financialization</h2>
<p>Ford may have avoided the term affordable because the economic growth model in Canada depends on the conversion of housing from a human right <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=mnCKDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover">into a financial investment tool</a> — a process known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-study-reveals-intensified-housing-inequality-in-canada-from-1981-to-2016-173633">housing financialization</a>.</p>
<p>Since the early 2000s, <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/alex/benv/2021/00000047/00000003/art00007">Ontario has embraced this economic growth model</a> that prioritizes property speculation and real estate-driven economic growth. </p>
<p>Housing financialization has resulted in the creation of new housing projects for investment purposes, rather than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2019.1705846">affordability and accessibility</a>. This economic growth model is the principle reason for the housing crisis in Ontario.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A graph showing the different driving forces behind the Ontario economy" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467298/original/file-20220606-16-wzzgrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/467298/original/file-20220606-16-wzzgrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467298/original/file-20220606-16-wzzgrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467298/original/file-20220606-16-wzzgrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=270&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467298/original/file-20220606-16-wzzgrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467298/original/file-20220606-16-wzzgrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/467298/original/file-20220606-16-wzzgrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=340&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Currently, real estate is the top driving sector of the Ontario economy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Statistics Canada)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ford is an advocate of <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-former-environment-greenbelt-chair-1.6009503">pro-development growth</a> and acts as an <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2021/05/05/under-cover-of-covid-19-doug-ford-has-been-selling-out-the-environment.html">anti-environmentalist by advocating for more urban sprawl</a> in the form of more suburban housing. </p>
<p>The massive suburbanization process in the Greater Toronto Area will be accelerated through further <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02513625.2021.2026678">housing financialization</a>. Unless we force politicians to change the current economic model through policies, the housing crisis will continue to deepen.</p>
<h2>The need for a strong housing agenda</h2>
<p><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8752010/housing-canada-labour-shortage-cost-homes/">Increasing the housing supply</a> — the most commonly proposed scenario by all major parties to deal with the crisis, with the exception of the Green Party — will not solve the issue unless affordable housing supply is specifically increased.</p>
<p>While the general housing supply continues to grow, supported through policies from <a href="https://www.thestar.com/life/homes/opinion/2021/05/07/all-three-levels-of-government-must-work-together-to-solve-the-housing-shortage.html">all three levels of government</a>, there are no explicit policies in place for affordable housing.</p>
<p>As a consequence, housing prices continue to increase, or at least remain unaffordable, because adding supply does not automatically translate into <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/housing-supply-home-prices-1.6434564">a decline of housing prices</a>.</p>
<p>Affordability can only be achieved with an ambitious plan that invests in affordable rental housing, similar to what was done between 1960-79 in Toronto, when <a href="https://files.ontario.ca/mmah-housing-affordability-task-force-report-en-2022-02-07-v2.pdf">66 per cent of all new housing was built as purpose-built rental units</a>. Since then, there has been little investment in this housing option. </p>
<p>Even though there are <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/community-people/community-partners/affordable-housing-partners/projects-under-construction/">some projects</a> from different <a href="https://pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/01/21/over-10000-new-affordable-homes-canadians">levels of government</a>, this is the only way to reduce the long list of <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/data-research-maps/research-reports/housing-and-homelessness-research-and-reports/social-housing-waiting-list-reports/">79,572 people waiting for affordable housing</a> in Toronto.</p>
<p>That is why all three levels of government need to be called into action, come together and develop an ambitious plan for affordable housing. We must resist Ford’s new term of “attainable” housing and with it, prevent him from abandoning the quest for truly affordable housing.</p>
<p><em>Seyfi Tomar, Secretary General of the International Real Estate Federation Canadian branch, co-authored this article.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184103/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Murat Ucoglu receives funding from Mitacs. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ute Lehrer receives funding from SSHRC.</span></em></p>Canada’s current economic growth model is currently dependent on the conversion of housing from a human right into a financial investment tool, leading to an ever-worsening housing crisis.Murat Ucoglu, Postdoctoral Researcher in Urban Studies, York University, CanadaUte Lehrer, Professor of Urban Planning, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1837972022-06-03T01:54:15Z2022-06-03T01:54:15ZThe Ontario election campaign produced some surprisingly good ideas for Canada<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466850/original/file-20220602-20-yo7uy6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7832%2C3469&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Leader Doug Ford, Ontario New Democratic Party Leader Andrea Horwath, Ontario Liberal Party Leader Steven Del Duca and Green Party of Ontario Leader Mike Schreiner debate during the Ontario party leaders' debate in May 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/the-ontario-election-campaign-produced-some-surprisingly-good-ideas-for-canada" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>No big ideas during an election campaign? Au contraire — the Ontario election campaign produced some unexpected and innovative proposals. </p>
<p>This doesn’t happen often, mostly because politicians don’t dare to dream. And, as Kim Campbell infamously put it during her brief tenure as prime minister, the <a href="https://parli.ca/an-election-is-no-time-to-discuss-serious-issues/">election period is too short a time</a> to discuss serious issues. </p>
<p>Here are the good ideas we noticed during the election that should be implemented by Doug Ford’s victorious PC government and then scaled up for the rest of the country.</p>
<h2>Education</h2>
<p>The Ontario Liberals proposed the introduction of an <a href="https://ontarioliberal.ca/ontario-liberals-will-offer-optional-grade-13-and-put-1000-more-mental-health-professionals-in-schools-to-reach-students-coping-with-pandemic-harms/">optional Grade 13</a> for at least four years to let kids who missed out on a significant proportion of their school experience because of COVID-19 catch up. Other smart education ideas raised during the campaign:</p>
<p>• Reduce class sizes, with the best suggestion from the Liberals, who proposed capping classes at 20 students across the board. </p>
<p>• Hire lots more teachers. The promises ranged between 10,000 for the Liberals to 20,000 for the NDP, including more special education teachers. </p>
<p>Ontario had the <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/february-2022/have-provinces-put-schools-first-during-covid/">worst track record</a> in Canada on classroom closures and reliance on virtual learning during the pandemic, and Canada had one of the worst track records in the world. It’s obvious that as the pandemic subsides, we will need to help kids recover.</p>
<h2>Housing</h2>
<p>Affordable housing is needed everywhere and is approaching a <a href="https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-note.housing-note--may-12-2021-.html">dire crisis</a> situation throughout the country, although no governments have plans for action in any magnitude that will help.</p>
<p>Most Ontario parties promised vast amounts of new housing, with the common number being at least <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-ontario-ndp-promise-to-spur-construction-of-15-million-new-homes-in-10/">1.5 million homes.</a> And while how, when and for whom these homes will be built needs lots more focus, having a promise on numbers is at least a start.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1522847462150524929"}"></div></p>
<h2>Transportation</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cp24.com/news/buck-a-ride-ontario-liberals-promise-to-cut-transit-fares-to-1-until-2024-1.5884427?cache=%3FclipId%3D89925%3FclipId%3D89530">“buck a ride”</a> public transit promise, also from the Liberals, is a really good idea. It deals with a whole raft of policy issues in one go. </p>
<p>It gives priority to public transportation at a time when gas prices are rising and people are stressed because of general price increases. </p>
<p>It can get more people accustomed to using public transit, which will have a positive effect on greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>It particularly targets those who need it most. Low-wage workers often spend a lot of time on transit because housing costs are so high near their work.</p>
<p>The proposal would also put money in the pockets of those who need it most, especially the poorest and the vulnerable such as people with disabilities, the unemployed, students and seniors.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing a mask waits to get into a streetcar as a passenger steps out." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466851/original/file-20220602-11-j3hank.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466851/original/file-20220602-11-j3hank.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466851/original/file-20220602-11-j3hank.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466851/original/file-20220602-11-j3hank.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466851/original/file-20220602-11-j3hank.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466851/original/file-20220602-11-j3hank.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466851/original/file-20220602-11-j3hank.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A woman waits for a passenger to exit a streetcar in Toronto in April 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Public sector bargaining, labour</h2>
<p>Somewhere along the way, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/6143895/ontario-government-bill-cap-public-sector-wages/">constraining public sector wages</a> to very low increases over long periods of time seemed like a good idea. Governments across the country introduced wage restraints. This resulted in devastating shortages of labour in crucial care industries. </p>
<p>In Ontario, <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-42/session-1/bill-124">Bill 124</a> caps some public sector wages to increases of one per cent a year, targeting jobs mainly done by women. With this kind of government directive, there’s no genuine public sector wage bargaining and it serves to increase wage inequality within the sector.</p>
<p>Ontario’s Bill 106 also affects women because of its limitations on <a href="https://nupge.ca/content/opseusefpo-bill-106-pay-equity-bargaining">pay equity bargaining</a> in the public sector.</p>
<p>The good idea? All three opposition parties — the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens — promised to repeal both bills. </p>
<p>This would be a smart move for all of Canada. Governments across the country need to <a href="https://thecareeconomy.ca/our-news-and-data/">plan for labour</a> in the care sector, but as long as strong bargaining rights are not possible because of government directives, shortages will continue. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-long-term-care-beds-in-ontario-wont-help-without-well-paid-well-trained-staff-183893">More long-term care beds in Ontario won't help without well-paid, well-trained staff</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Looking ahead to the post-pandemic era</h2>
<p>Problems stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic are almost universal throughout the country, so progressive ideas from anywhere should be disseminated.</p>
<p>That’s why the surprisingly good ideas that emerged from the Ontario election campaign need to be implemented, both by the re-elected Progressive Conservatives and governments across the country.</p>
<p>The pandemic exposed acute deficiencies in care services and exposed and enhanced existing transit and housing problems. The smart ideas presented during the Ontario election represent a good first step to solving some of them. </p>
<p>It is possible to have a more equitable society as we recover from COVID-19, one that prioritizes improving the lives of citizens from all walks of life. That should be the aim of every elected official, including the newly re-elected Doug Ford.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183797/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pat Armstrong receives funding from SSHRC and am a Board member of CCPA and the Canadian Health Coalition
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span><a href="mailto:marjorie_cohen@sfu.ca">marjorie_cohen@sfu.ca</a> receives funding from Simon Fraser University Institute for the Humanities</span></em></p>Some excellent ideas were proposed during the Ontario election on everything from transit to housing. Here’s why the rest of Canada would be wise to consider them.Pat Armstrong, Distinguished Research Professor of Sociology, York University, CanadaMarjorie Griffin Cohen, Professor emeritus, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1838852022-06-03T01:54:13Z2022-06-03T01:54:13ZOntario election: Doug Ford’s victory shows he’s not the polarizing figure he once was<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466881/original/file-20220603-15-zhz2ii.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=14%2C7%2C4873%2C3290&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford is joined on stage by his wife Karla at a victory party for his Progressive Conservatives after their return to power with an increased majority.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette </span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/ontario-election--doug-ford-s-victory-shows-he-s-not-the-polarizing-figure-he-once-was" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Doug Ford has won a larger majority government in Ontario, a victory that serves as a reminder that the Progressive Conservative party <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/how-the-1943-election-kicked-off-the-longest-political-dynasty-in-ontario-history">ruled Ontario for much of the 20th century</a>. </p>
<p>That 42-year unbroken run, from 1943 to 1985, was not by accident. The 20th century Ontario PCs won election after election by continually evolving.</p>
<p>In turn, <a href="http://www.revparl.ca/english/issue.asp?art=938&param=142">political scientists of the day</a> identified an “Ontario political culture” that valued moderation and cautious progress. With leaders like Bill Davis <a href="https://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/local-peterborough/opinion/2021/08/21/things-weren-t-all-that-bland-in-bill-davis-ontario.html">and his famous line that “bland works,”</a> the PCs and Ontario seemed made for each other.</p>
<p>The idea of a durable and moderate Ontario political culture took a hit in the 1990s when the province lurched first to the NDP and then the so-called Common Sense Revolution of the Mike Harris PCs. But it was restored by the coming of Dalton McGuinty who, although a Liberal, reflected the 20th century PC tradition of unflashy but adaptable leadership. </p>
<p>The concept took another hit in 2018 with the election of the distinctly un-bland Doug Ford. But the results of the 2022 Ontario election suggest the tradition is alive and well. </p>
<p>Ford has positioned himself in the longstanding tradition of the adaptable Ontario PCs and an enduring provincial political culture. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1532548350125477888"}"></div></p>
<h2>‘Get it done’</h2>
<p>Years ago, Western University political scientist <a href="https://doi.org/10.3138/9781442670198-004">Sid Noel argued</a> that: “More than the people of any other province… Ontarians tend to define political leadership in terms of managerial capability.” </p>
<p>The 2022 PC slogan, “<a href="https://ontariopc.ca/">Get It Done</a>,” aligned perfectly with Noel’s 20th century thesis. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Ford stands at a podium with a sign behind him that says Construction Ahead and construction workers." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466842/original/file-20220602-9413-llmrdw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466842/original/file-20220602-9413-llmrdw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466842/original/file-20220602-9413-llmrdw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466842/original/file-20220602-9413-llmrdw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466842/original/file-20220602-9413-llmrdw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466842/original/file-20220602-9413-llmrdw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466842/original/file-20220602-9413-llmrdw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ford shares remarks about ‘getting it done’ at a campaign event in Kitchener, Ont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nicole Osborne</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The change is remarkable. Two and a half years ago, it seemed that the 2022 election would surely be a referendum on Ford. To some degree it still was. But while some people deeply dislike Ford, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ontarians-dont-fear-doug-ford-the-way-they-did-in-2018-did-he-change/">he is not the polarizing figure</a> he was in 2018. </p>
<p>Rather, Ford and his party <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-doug-ford-anti-establishment-firebrand-or-likeable-everyman/">have successively portrayed themselves</a> as competent managers adapting to the needs of Ontario in 2022. Whether their policy record actually holds up is a different story. The point is that they successfully convinced enough Ontarians that they are the best party to run the province. </p>
<p>This wasn’t really an election about divisive issues. The biggest exception was the proposed <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-campaign-day-one-2022-1.6440752">Highway 413</a>, promised by the PCs and opposed by the other parties. Instead, the PCs managed to make this a retail election about immediate items for sale, more than big concepts and philosophies. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1530497373369053184"}"></div></p>
<p>This was tailor-made for Ford’s strengths. He’s not a traditional ideologue or libertarian. Rather, as he lays out candidly in his book <a href="https://books.google.ca/books/about/Ford_Nation.html?id=8x8GDQAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y"><em>Ford Nation</em></a>, the Ford family political philosophy is simple: “Customer service.” Ford sees politics on an individualized, taxpayer and customer basis, much more than a sense of broader systemic issues and challenges. </p>
<h2>A promise extravaganza</h2>
<p>The retail focus made for a bewildering array of promises in all directions during the election campaign, as the other parties played along. Many promises seemed random and unconnected to broader ideas. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A rainbow is seen descending over a highway as transport trucks drive along it." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466610/original/file-20220601-20-7xm1xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466610/original/file-20220601-20-7xm1xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466610/original/file-20220601-20-7xm1xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466610/original/file-20220601-20-7xm1xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466610/original/file-20220601-20-7xm1xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466610/original/file-20220601-20-7xm1xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466610/original/file-20220601-20-7xm1xd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rainbow descends over an Ontario highway.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Future political junkies can play a quiz: “Who promised what in the 2022 Ontario election?” Which party promised to bring back <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8814714/ontario-liberals-grade-13-schools-election/">Grade 13</a>? Who promised to end <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ndp-highway-407-truckers-tolls-traffic-1.6459779">truck tolls</a> on Highway 407? Which party promised to increase <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-elxn-disability-payments-1.6446744">disability benefits</a> by five per cent? (Correct answers, respectively: The Liberals, the Greens and the NDP, and the PCs.) </p>
<p>The PC machine was so unstoppable throughout the campaign that the two other major parties spent most of their energy fighting each other for second place. The Liberals were desperate to climb back from <a href="https://lfpress.com/news/ontario-election/ontario-election-routed-in-2018-liberals-still-without-candidates-in-14-ridings">their 2018 wipeout</a>, and largely failed, while the NDP struggled to maintain their foothold. </p>
<p>The two main opposition parties were hampered by their leaders, both of whom announced their resignations on election night. Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca was not able to sell his suburban dad image and lost his seat. New Democrat Andrea Horwath has simply not been able to capture public attention — either positively or negatively — despite her fourth election and announced it was time to “pass the torch” to a new leader.</p>
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<img alt="Three men and a woman stand in a line smiling at the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466609/original/file-20220601-49293-54i8u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466609/original/file-20220601-49293-54i8u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466609/original/file-20220601-49293-54i8u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466609/original/file-20220601-49293-54i8u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466609/original/file-20220601-49293-54i8u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466609/original/file-20220601-49293-54i8u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466609/original/file-20220601-49293-54i8u.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ford, Horwath, Del Duca and Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner pose for a photo ahead of the Ontario party leaders’ debate in May 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span>
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<h2>Role of the pandemic</h2>
<p>The unanswerable question is whether this election would have been different without the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>The Ford government had a rocky record managing COVID-19. But it is notable how the PC party stayed largely united — unlike the Alberta United Conservatives who spiralled into civil war, resulting in the demise of their leader, Jason Kenney.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/albertas-political-culture-and-history-played-a-part-in-jason-kenneys-downfall-183490">Alberta's political culture and history played a part in Jason Kenney's downfall</a>
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<p>Four members of the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/belinda-karahalios-cambridge-progressive-conservative-1.5658084">Ontario PC caucus</a> <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-mpp-kicked-out-of-pc-caucus-over-refusal-to-get-vaccinated-1.5553838">left or were expelled during the pandemic</a> after speaking out publicly against the government’s COVID-19 policies, and the party faced two breakaway rivals on the right, <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/05/30/controversial-platforms-ontario-splinter-parties/">the New Blue and Ontario parties</a>. But both failed to win seats or stop the PC momentum. </p>
<p>This again suggests there is something distinct about Ontario and its political culture, and the PC party under Ford has figured out what it is.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183885/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Malloy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Doug Ford and his party have successively portrayed themselves as competent managers adapting to the needs of Ontario in 2022. Whether their policy record actually holds up is a different story.Jonathan Malloy, Professor of Political Science, Carleton UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1826602022-05-17T12:32:38Z2022-05-17T12:32:38ZOntario election: 4 ways Doug Ford has changed the province’s politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463388/original/file-20220516-17-3qpfdn.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3600%2C2091&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford attends a photo opportunity on a construction site in Brampton as he kicks off his re-election campaign on May 4, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dismal environmental record of the Doug Ford government in Ontario <a href="https://theconversation.com/ontario-election-doug-fords-poor-record-on-the-environment-and-climate-change-182021">is well-documented</a>. Despite some <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-climate-change-steel-co2-greenhouse-gas-emissions-1.6353814">recent moves on “greening”</a> the steel sector and <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/03/16/news/ontario-invest-1316-million-electric-vehicle-manufacturing-vague-how">electric vehicle manufacturing initiatives</a>, the province is on track to see major increases in greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from the <a href="https://www.ieso.ca/en/Sector-Participants/Planning-and-Forecasting/Annual-Planning-Outlook">electricity sector</a>. </p>
<p>The government’s emphasis on <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/highway-413-bradford-bypass-explainer/">highway expansion</a> in the Greater Toronto Area is further evidence of this trend.</p>
<p>The Ford government’s record on environmental issues is an extension of its wider approach to governance. It has broken from the <a href="https://www.cpsa-acsp.ca/papers-2012/Malloy.pdf">traditional norms</a> of Ontario politics, which have emphasized moderation and administrative competence, <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/how-the-big-blue-machine-dominated-ontario-politics-for-more-than-four-decades">as reflected through the long Progressive Conservative dynasty</a>.</p>
<p>Looking back on Ford’s four years in power reveals four themes about his approach to governance — and what the next four years might have in store if <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/05/11/ontario-election-poll-doug-ford/">public opinion polls are correct and he wins again on June 2</a>.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-doug-ford-will-once-again-win-the-ontario-election-180845">Why Doug Ford will once again win the Ontario election</a>
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<h2>1. Reactive governance</h2>
<p>The Ford government’s agenda seems driven by <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2022/05/04/this-is-who-he-is-doug-ford-offers-ontario-another-four-years-of-what-he-promised.html">instinct more than ideology</a>. It came to power with scant vision for what a provincial government <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ontario-election-2018-party-platforms/">should do</a> other than cut taxes, red tape and hydro rates. It’s struggled when confronted with more complex problems that required the province to play a much more active role.</p>
<p>The resulting governance model has been fundamentally reactive, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-doug-ford-doctrine-short-term-gain-for-long-term-pain-116131">grounded in relatively short-term</a> perspectives. The government has tended to act once a situation reaches the crisis stage, rather than identifying potential problems and taking action to prevent them. </p>
<p>This pattern has been most evident in the government’s hesitant responses to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ontario-can-recover-from-doug-fords-covid-19-governance-disaster-159783">COVID-19 pandemic</a>. It tended to <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ontarios-covid-19-strategy-waiting-for-catastrophe-then-enacting/">react to</a> waves of COVID-19 infections rather than anticipating them and taking measures to minimize their impacts, even when given clear and consistent <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2022/03/17/ontario-science-table-to-publish-new-covid-19-projections-today.html">scientific advice</a> to do so.</p>
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<img alt="A man with grey-ish blonde slicked-back hair pulls his mask off." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463384/original/file-20220516-21-xbzouv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463384/original/file-20220516-21-xbzouv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463384/original/file-20220516-21-xbzouv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463384/original/file-20220516-21-xbzouv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463384/original/file-20220516-21-xbzouv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463384/original/file-20220516-21-xbzouv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463384/original/file-20220516-21-xbzouv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ford arrives to a news conference at the Ontario legislature on the easing of restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto in January 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Issues like the environment and climate change are destined to do poorly under such a reactive governance model. They require taking action now to avoid problems in the future. </p>
<p>We are constantly reminded of this by the reports of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> and <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_202111_05_e_43898.html">federal</a> and <a href="https://www.auditor.on.ca/en/content/annualreports/arreports/en21/ENV_FU_ClimateChange_en21.pdf">provincial</a> environmental commissioners. Only responding when problems have become too obvious to ignore tends to mean it’s already too late.</p>
<h2>2. Creeping authoritarianism</h2>
<p>The government’s run-up to the election has placed a strong emphasis on “<a href="https://ontariopc.ca/">getting it done</a>” — it’s the Progressive Conservative party’s campaign slogan — in areas like housing and highway and transit construction, in particular. </p>
<p>The flip side of this emphasis has been increasingly aggressive exercises of provincial authority, particularly over local governments. One of the government’s first moves was to arbitrarily cut <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-supreme-court-ward-ruling-1.6194241">Toronto City Council</a> in half. The province threatened to invoke, for the first time in the province’s history, <a href="https://www.constitutionalstudies.ca/2019/07/notwithstanding-clause/">Sec. 33</a> of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, known as the notwithstanding clause, to get its way.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fords-fight-with-toronto-shows-legal-vulnerability-of-cities-103134">Ford's fight with Toronto shows legal vulnerability of cities</a>
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<p>Ontario’s <a href="https://urbantoronto.ca/news/2019/01/ontarios-growth-plan-changes-end-smart-growth">planning rules</a> have also been rewritten, not only at the provincial level, but down to the level of <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2019/06/05/province-to-change-development-rules-for-toronto.html">site-specific development plans</a> within individual municipalities, almost universally in favour of developers’ interests. <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/10/09/ontario-government-ramps-up-use-of-special-orders-to-rezone-land-without-appeals.html">Ministerial zoning orders</a> — which circumvent local planning processes and public consultations, designating land use without the possibility of appeals — are no longer the exceptions they once were.</p>
<p>Instead, they seem the new norm for planning in Ontario. Broad powers have been given to provincial agencies, most notably the <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/laws/statute/20b12">provincial transit agency Metrolinx</a>, to build what are often <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2021/08/25/there-is-still-time-to-stop-the-ontario-line.html">poorly conceived</a> and <a href="https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/bitstream/1807/96710/1/Perspectives-26-Siemiatycki-Fagan-Transit-GTA-October-2019.pdf">politically motivated</a> transit projects. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1524860372410318848"}"></div></p>
<p>The province’s <a href="https://www.ola.org/en/legislative-business/bills/parliament-42/session-2/bill-109">most recent legislative moves</a> have sought <a href="https://www.thespec.com/news/hamilton-region/2022/04/09/ontario-hamilton-housing-legislation.html">to further marginalize</a> the roles of local governments in planning matters and to eliminate public consultation requirements as red tape.</p>
<p>The notwithstanding clause was ultimately invoked by the government as it pertained to its <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ford-government-recalls-legislature-to-push-through-election-finances/">election financing legislation</a> that seemed designed to silence potential critics. </p>
<p>Even local <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-school-boards-masks-1.6381366">school boards</a> were forbidden to adopt COVID-19 containment measures more stringent that those put in place at the provincial level.</p>
<h2>3. Friends with benefits</h2>
<p>While the Ford government has gone to great lengths to silence voices of critical constituencies, it’s been extraordinarily open to the voices that support it.</p>
<p>The government has demonstrated a distinct tendency to uncritically accept whatever its favoured industry lobbyists tell it to do. This has been evident in its approaches to <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2021/07/15/did-lobbyists-influence-doug-fords-covid-19-decisions-read-the-exclusive-star-series.html">COVID-19</a>, <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2022/04/17/missing-the-mark-on-housing.html">housing and infrastructure</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/critical-minerals-strategy-first-nation-concerns-1.6389154">mining</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/province-s-plans-to-change-gravel-pit-rules-could-harm-local-water-natural-areas-report-1.5338478">aggregate extraction sites like gravel pits and quarries</a>, <a href="https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/january-2021/cleaning-up-ontarios-hydro-mess/">energy</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2022/04/25/too-many-dangers-in-promised-privatization-of-care-economy.html">long-term care</a>. </p>
<p>The overall decision-making model that has emerged is based <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/investigations/2021/04/03/ford-friends-with-benefits-an-inside-look-at-the-money-power-and-influence-behind-the-push-to-build-highway-413.html">on access, connections</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2021/03/08/fords-change-to-development-rules-is-a-massive-overreach.html">political whim</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Small white crosses are displayed in a field with people's names written on them." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463389/original/file-20220516-25-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463389/original/file-20220516-25-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463389/original/file-20220516-25-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463389/original/file-20220516-25-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463389/original/file-20220516-25-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463389/original/file-20220516-25-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463389/original/file-20220516-25-1vlpcp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Crosses are displayed in memory of the elderly who died from COVID-19 at the Camilla Care Community facility during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mississauga, Ont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette</span></span>
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<h2>4. Spend but don’t increase taxes</h2>
<p>A final defining feature of the Ford government has been a tendency to disregard the fiscal consequences of its decisions. The focus instead has been on short-term savings for consumers.</p>
<p>The cancellation of the previous Liberal government’s cap-and-trade system immediately following the 2018 election cost the provincial treasury <a href="https://www.fao-on.org/en/blog/publications/cap-and-trade-ending">billions in forgone revenues</a>. Hundreds of <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2019/11/19/fords-cancellation-of-renewable-energy-projects-to-cost-at-least-231m.html">millions more</a> were spent cancelling renewable energy projects. </p>
<p>Hydro rates are being artificially lowered through an annual <a href="https://www.fao-on.org/en/Blog/publications/energy-and-electricity-2022">$7 billion</a> in subsidies from the provincial treasury, money that could otherwise be spent on schools and hospitals. The pre-election cancellation of tolls on Highways 412 and 418 will cost at least <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/highway-412-418-tolls-ending-1.6357066">$1 billion</a> over the next 25 years, while the cancellation of vehicle licensing fees will cost the province an estimated <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-vehicle-licence-renewal-1.6359951">$1 billion</a> each year. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-gas-tax-1.6407385">A proposed cut</a> to provincial gasoline taxes would cost nearly $650 million in annual revenues. And the projected deficit on the government’s <a href="https://budget.ontario.ca/2022/contents.html">pre-election budget</a> was almost $20 billion, a record.</p>
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<img alt="A man with blond-ish-grey hair in a navy suit speaks into a microphone, a large bulldozer in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463359/original/file-20220516-15-gs56h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4500%2C2984&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463359/original/file-20220516-15-gs56h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463359/original/file-20220516-15-gs56h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463359/original/file-20220516-15-gs56h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463359/original/file-20220516-15-gs56h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463359/original/file-20220516-15-gs56h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463359/original/file-20220516-15-gs56h.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ford makes an announcement about building transit and highways during an election campaign event in Bowmanville, Ont.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Vincent Elkaim</span></span>
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<p>All of this is at odds with previous Progressive Conservative governments in Ontario, which were largely fiscally prudent.</p>
<p>It isn’t clear yet to what extent the potential political success of a governance model organized around these four themes represents a fundamental break from the traditional norms of Ontario politics. If Ford wins again, is it due to <a href="https://www.thespec.com/opinion/contributors/2021/08/16/ford-still-in-the-lead-heading-into-election-year-despite-failures.html">the weaknesses</a> of the alternatives being offered to Ontario voters, or does it signal a permanent realignment in the province’s politics? </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-doug-fords-shift-to-the-centre-says-about-the-longevity-of-populism-182371">What Doug Ford's shift to the centre says about the longevity of populism</a>
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<p>Either way, June 2 could be a watershed moment in the province’s history, defining a “new normal” for politics in Ontario.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182660/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada </span></em></p>Looking back on Ford’s four years in power reveals four themes in his approach to governance — and what the next four years might have in store if he wins again.Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1823712022-05-10T15:20:00Z2022-05-10T15:20:00ZWhat Doug Ford’s shift to the centre says about the longevity of populism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462027/original/file-20220509-20-fxhj9p.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C11%2C7856%2C5221&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks at a campaign event in Pickering, Ont., on May 5, 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Ontario Progressive Conservative (PC) government’s attempt at re-election brings to the forefront questions of Canadian conservatism and its viability, not just in the country’s most populous province. </p>
<p>Throughout its tenure, the PC government has <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/doug-ford-fans-must-be-feeling-pretty-good-about-the-election">undergone significant changes in policy, appearance and general tone</a>. A 2018 populist movement has seemingly shifted to the moderate PC coalition of old.</p>
<p>To capture this change, is it necessary for Ford to turn back the clock to 2018? After all, he won both the party leadership and the election on a populist agenda. </p>
<p><a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-pc-leader-patrick-brown-resigns-amid-allegations-about-conduct-1.3774840">Following the more centrist Patrick Brown’s removal as PC leader in January 2018</a>, Ford <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-pc-ontario-election-leadership-race-1.4508807">entered the race</a> brandishing his previous anti-establishment and brash Toronto City Council persona.</p>
<p>In narrowly beating Christine Elliot for the leadership, Ford quickly shifted the image and platform of the party to his own image. </p>
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<p>The party’s electoral platform, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ford-pcs-platform-cost-fiscal-1.4684590">titled <em>A Plan for the People</em>,</a> contrasted the “people” from the “elites,” who, through waste, mismanagement and scandal, had — along with a set of “special interests” — benefited from exploiting every day Ontarians. </p>
<p>The platform argued that Ford’s PC party, by being better connected to the taxpayer, would bring in a period of fiscal restraint, less wasteful government spending and a more “common-sense” driven policy process. Among the party’s promises were to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-hydro-one-1.4616173">fire the CEO of Ontario’s utility provider, Hydro One</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-election-doug-ford-deficit-commission-inquiry-1.4636522">launch a full audit of Liberal government spending</a> and <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-pcs-will-end-ontario-cap-and-trade-program-fight-ottawa-on-carbon-tax/">repeal the province’s cap-and-trade program</a>.</p>
<h2>Controversial policies</h2>
<p>These initiatives shaped the initial year of the Ford government as it brought in aggressive and controversial policies. </p>
<p>By the time the 2019 spring budget was tabled, the government had <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/canada-us-canada-politics-ontario-idCAKBN1JT234-OCADN">scrapped cap-and-trade</a>, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/4353193/ontario-government-ends-york-university-strike/">legislated an end to the strike at York University</a>, <a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/ontario-government-cancels-758-renewable-energy-contracts-says-it-will-save-millions">cancelled several green-energy contracts</a>, put in place <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/student-choice-initiative-ford-ontario-1.6129330">the student choice initiative that was later struck down</a>, <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/archive/ca/entry/ontario-pcs-are-in-for-a-fight-on-class-sizes-teachers-union-says_a_23693498">fought teachers’ unions over increased class sizes</a>, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-public-sector-wage-cap-1.5163753">limited the salaries of public servants</a> and <a href="https://budget.ontario.ca/pdf/2019/2019-ontario-budget-en.pdf">budgeted significant cutbacks in public spending in addition to $26 billion in tax relief</a>. </p>
<p>In particular, the decision to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/judge-ruling-city-council-bill-election-1.4816664">cut the size of Toronto City Council</a>, coupled with the threat to use the Constitution’s notwithstanding clause to enshrine its bill limiting third-party election advertising, seemed to show the willingness to lash back against conventional norms and institutions. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/doug-ford-uses-the-notwithstanding-clause-for-political-benefit-162594">Doug Ford uses the notwithstanding clause for political benefit</a>
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<p>To many, this was met with a certain dread: critics, particularly those on the left, saw Ford as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/02/world/canada/doug-ford-ontario.html">“Donald Trump of the North”</a> whose emergence to power marked Canada’s entry into a brash, authoritarian and xenophobic populism seen throughout the world. </p>
<p>Alternatively, many Conservatives positively regarded Ford’s government as a return of former premier Mike Harris’s <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2018/06/07/2018-style-common-sense-revolution-key-pc-party-return-power/">“Common Sense Revolution”</a> of neo-liberal reform. </p>
<p>Neither of these predictions have turned out to be correct. </p>
<h2>The impact of COVID-19</h2>
<p>By 2022, Ford and the Progressive Conservatives have come to resemble an older, conservative powerhouse: the <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/how-the-big-blue-machine-dominated-ontario-politics-for-more-than-four-decades">“Big Blue Machine” of onetime premiers Leslie Frost, John Robarts and Bill Davis</a>. </p>
<p>This is because rather than making efforts to display its ideological or populist integrity, the Ford government <a href="https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-how-a-pandemic-transformed-doug-ford-into-an-entirely-different-premier">has come to focus more pragmatically on the consequences of each of its policies</a>. In particular, there remains next to no rhetoric on “elites” versus “the people.”</p>
<p>The party was in power for 42 consecutive years in Ontario, from 1943 to 1985, <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/the-year-the-tories-big-blue-machine-came-sputtering-to-a-stop">and its success has been attributed to its pragmatic, moderate and borderline bland style of governance</a>, particularly in the way it ensured a consistent level of economic growth. </p>
<p>The change in tone for the Ford government seems to have started in late 2019 when, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2019/05/23/ford-popularity-collapsing-mainstreet-says-in-new-poll-putting-pcs-in-third-place.html">following a significant drop in popularity</a>, it regrouped via a <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/52704/premier-ford-announces-changes-to-his-cabinet">drastic cabinet shuffle</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/dean-french-resigns-1.5186053">staffing changes in the premier’s office</a>.</p>
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<img alt="A man gets into a car with as a line of protesters stand in a row across the street holding signs." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462039/original/file-20220509-12-1dvm62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462039/original/file-20220509-12-1dvm62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462039/original/file-20220509-12-1dvm62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462039/original/file-20220509-12-1dvm62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462039/original/file-20220509-12-1dvm62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462039/original/file-20220509-12-1dvm62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462039/original/file-20220509-12-1dvm62.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford acknowledges people as they protest cuts to education in Kenora, Ont., as he leaves an event in October 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS</span></span>
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<p>The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/politics/what-happened-to-the-old-doug-ford/">showed a new side to Ford and his government</a>. The government’s response, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-ontario-can-recover-from-doug-fords-covid-19-governance-disaster-159783">while far from perfect</a>, suggested Ford was empathetic and, most importantly, concerned about the practical success of policies. </p>
<p>Rather than disparaging the media or other governments as part of the “elite,” the Ford government <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-ontario-election-trudeau-doug-ford/">developed a solid working relationship with the governing federal Liberals</a>.</p>
<p>This new, more moderate and pragmatic tone has taken over the party’s 2022 policy platform, entitled Get It Done — and there appears to be no intention to shift back to right-wing populism.</p>
<p>As Get it Done communicates, the party now bases its appeal in the claim that it can effectively get results and most competently manage the affairs of the province. </p>
<p>This includes <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8771510/ontario-pcs-increase-wsib-if-reelected/">providing more benefits for workers</a>, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8785026/ontario-additional-home-care-investment/">expanding health care</a> and <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8790914/ontario-election-2022-promises/">investing $158.8 billion</a> in several large transportation projects. The government’s prior fiscal hawkishness seems to have disappeared given a balanced budget isn’t projected until 2027. </p>
<h2>Populism hard to sustain</h2>
<p>This suggests that a contrarian populist appeal, while it could be useful in attaining office, is much more difficult to sustain as a coherent, effective and popular governing strategy over time. </p>
<p>As the Ford government learned, an aggressive and contrarian approach can quickly create too many enemies, especially given Ontario’s large and powerful public sector. </p>
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<img alt="A woman in a sleeveless red-and-white shirt holds up a sign that reads Not My Premier." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462047/original/file-20220509-20-x8pi63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/462047/original/file-20220509-20-x8pi63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462047/original/file-20220509-20-x8pi63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462047/original/file-20220509-20-x8pi63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462047/original/file-20220509-20-x8pi63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462047/original/file-20220509-20-x8pi63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/462047/original/file-20220509-20-x8pi63.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A protester holds up a placard as Doug Ford addresses guests and supporters after being sworn in as Ontario’s new premier at the Ontario legislature in June 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young</span></span>
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<p>This could be unique to Ontario. The province’s political culture has long favoured moderation and pragmatic governance. </p>
<p>But it’s also important to recognize the implications this could have for the rest of Canada, because it provides Canadian Conservative governments with one of two choices in the coming years. </p>
<p>First, form legislatively influential but short-lived populist coalitions or, second, compromise to enjoy a longer, but likely much less impactful, control over the government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182371/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Routley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Ontario Progressive Conservative party’s 2022 platform now bases its appeal in the claim that it can effectively get results and most competently manage the affairs of the province.Sam Routley, PhD Student, Political Science, Western UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.