tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/doug-jones-46917/articlesDoug Jones – The Conversation2017-12-18T23:39:30Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/880502017-12-18T23:39:30Z2017-12-18T23:39:30ZFredo in the White House: Trump’s rolling chaos<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199703/original/file-20171218-27538-16duid2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">U.S. President Donald Trump steps off Marine One on the South Lawn at the White House recently after returning from Camp David in Maryland.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump is wearing thin. He is inherently boring. Everything he says or tweets is so familiar, no matter how offensive, that it’s hard to pay attention to him anymore. </p>
<p>He generates crisis, offence and chaos every day, and yet he is devoid of information. He doesn’t tell us anything that we haven’t already heard. He is like a political thunderhead giving off rolling thunder, but in his case it is rolling chaos. </p>
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<p>Nevertheless, let us examine where this chaos may be heading in 2018. There are signals in the madness that do contain information.</p>
<p>Trump’s <a href="http://beta.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-asia-20171115-story.html">Asia tour</a> was novel and renewed our attention. To the surprise of many he proved capable of reading from a teleprompter without giving vent to his inner impulses. </p>
<p>At the time, Kim Jong Un held his tongue, possibly because <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-3-carrier-show-of-force-near-north-korea-cost-the-us-navy-big-2017-11">three U.S. aircraft carrier groups</a> were stationed right off shore. Afterwards, an official from Beijing visited Kim and <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/north-korea-donald-trump-lunatic-nuclear-war-kim-jong-un-us-japan-summit-latest-updates-a8040046.html">he began to spout insults</a> at Trump again. </p>
<p>Later in Da Nang, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/donald-trump-russia-probe-vladimir-putin-apec-summit-vietnam-manafort-us-election-a8049571.html">Putin said he was insulted</a> by the Russia investigation. What Putin likely meant is that Trump had botched Putin’s plans for him: Lifting sanctions, rescinding the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/13/us-global-magnitsky-act">Magnitsky Act</a> and recognizing his annexation of Crimea. </p>
<p>Now other nations, <a href="http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/2017/11/putins-meddling-in-us-elections.html">29 in Europe by one count</a>, are investigating the hitherto comfortable money-laundering schemes of Putin’s cronies. The pyramid of money and power upon which Putin is perched is suddenly shaky thanks to Trump’s ineptitude. </p>
<p>Think Michael Corleone and his brother Fredo, the one who screwed up everything. </p>
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<p>Subsequent phone chats between Trump and Putin may have offered some solace to the president. It seems that his Russian pal considers the effort to subvert the U.S. election as, on balance, <a href="https://www.metro.us/news/the-big-stories/putin-satisfied-results-2016-election-meddling">a great success</a>. Nothing really new here: Putin is playing Trump like a fiddle.</p>
<p>As an expert in Caucasian languages and also politics, and someone who advised the Bill Clinton White House on Russia at various points in my career, I can attest that this is a classic move from the Russian playbook. Usually it fails. With Trump on the scene, it succeeded.</p>
<h2>Negative signals</h2>
<p>Sometimes information can come from negative signals, as in silence when there should be a signal. </p>
<p>The silence I refer to is the inaction of Congress. No one seems to be acting in light of the one overarching fact that shapes everything said and done since election day: Trump, through the Electoral College, is a minority president to an unprecedented extent, and Congress, through <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2017/12/18/this-is-how-gerrymandering-works/">gerrymandering,</a> is a minority Congress. </p>
<p>Neither represents what the majority of Americans want. Given a figure like Trump, incapable, abusive, narcissistic, misogynistic, morally empty and inarticulate, (read <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-time-cure/201709/the-dangerous-case-donald-trump">The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump</a> for a tour of all that is wrong with this grossly distorted man), you could be forgiven for expecting a prompt remedy to this miscarriage of democracy. Most nations, in fact, might have declared the election null-and-void and tried to get it right a second time. </p>
<p>We even hear now of the adjective “Trumpian,” a distillation of the parochial and damaging policies of Trump. </p>
<p>Some, <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/11/13/is-tom-cotton-the-future-of-trumpism">such as Sen. Tom Cotton</a>, may be able to play up Trumpian values to a following with a longing for a “simpler” past, for values based on heritage rather than self-fulfillment and replete with regional and racial resentments. </p>
<p>As Bernie Sanders showed us, however, the youth of America seem to be looking in a different direction. This message of the young seems unexpected to the GOP, and as such carries a good deal of information — information that the Republicans should be scrutinizing. </p>
<p><a href="http://time.com/5068079/doug-jones-roy-moore-alabama-senate-race/">And then there is Alabama</a>, a signal from a deep-red state that was utterly unexpected by some Republicans as Roy Moore, an accused pedophile, was defeated by the Democrat, Doug Jones. The voters of Alabama, many of them Black, seemingly cast their ballots for simple decency, to have repudiated the moral squalor into which the GOP, both at state and federal levels, had slid by endorsing Moore. </p>
<h2>Bannon, Trump, lose credibility</h2>
<p>Both Bannon and Trump lost their credibility and political clout by going all out with their endorsements of Moore. There is no obvious way now for them to regain these intangible powers. The signal here is easy to read: The expediencies of political chicanery will not fool a populace that has been exposed to almost a year of rolling chaos seasoned with the occasional dash of Trump’s depravity.</p>
<p>Other <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/democratic-victories-firsts-election-day_us_5a026c51e4b092053058cf38">Democratic victories</a> are being scored at the state level, not just in Virginia, but in numerous other venues as well. These developments do not bode well for the GOP.</p>
<p>Alabama, however, makes the most recent moves of Congress all the more puzzling. </p>
<p>I refer here to the effort by Republicans <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/the-nihilist-partisan-case-against-robert-mueller/548015/">to denigrate Mueller</a>, his team and the entire FBI. Not only is this an unprecedented assault on a man of integrity, it is also an assault on an entire institution that represents the federal policing function. </p>
<p>It seems that the Republican-controlled Congress has betrayed its function to uphold the Constitution.</p>
<p>To what end? So that they can pretend that Trump is not a puppet of Putin, when manifestly he is? Is there something so profoundly wrong with Pence that the entire Congress would rather wreck the republic than remove Trump? </p>
<p>The Russia investigation is expanding and drawing ever closer to Trump’s inner circle. There will be more indictments, followed, one must assume, by eventual presidential pardons. </p>
<p>Most likely we will see revelations on <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/richard-dearlove-mi6-trump-russia-money-2008-financial-crisis-us-election-a7684341.html">Russian bank loans</a> in 2008, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tower-meeting-russia-money-laundering-investigation-2017-9">Russian money-laundering</a>, <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/trump-pee-tape-dossier-bodyguard-704218">dirty Trump movies</a>, Trump advising the Russians <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/30/russia-plans-immediate-counter-measures-us-diplomats">not to retaliate with diplomatic expulsions</a> so that they will look reasonable and justify Trump lifting sanctions when he becomes president (an act of potential treason) and the forever lingering inducement of a <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/28/politics/trump-tower-plan-moscow-during-election/index.html">Trump Tower Moscow</a>. </p>
<h2>Mueller will wrap up probe in 2018?</h2>
<p>I hear the occasional media speculation that the Mueller investigation will last at least another year before winding up. I doubt that for three reasons:</p>
<p>Firstly, Republicans traditionally pay little heed to the reactions of their supporters and run roughshod over these trusting souls in their scramble to satisfy the interests of their donors. </p>
<p>The new tax law demonstrates this quite plainly. If they fire Mueller, deputy attorney general <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/364575-rosenstein-on-hot-seat-as-parties-allege-fbi-bias">Rod Rosenstein</a> and whatever is left of the FBI, Republicans seem to think that no one will care. I would suggest otherwise. </p>
<p>The U.S. military, for example, might care. Americans are fond of thinking they are exceptional, but politics has its own laws and the current course set by congressional Republicans leads directly to the sort of disintegration of norms and institutions that are typically rectified by martial force. </p>
<p>Americans might scoff at the suggestion of a military coup annulling the 2016 election and calling for a new one, but in any other nation this would be a real possibility, and I do not see American exceptionalism somehow standing outside the political forces that shape all other nations.</p>
<p>Secondly, Trump has had two episodes of slurred speech. I speak now as a linguist associated with colleagues who deal in speech pathology. In January, Trump is slated <a href="http://beta.latimes.com/politics/washington/la-na-pol-essential-washington-updates-trump-will-have-a-medical-exam-at-walter-1512673992-htmlstory.html">to undergo a physical at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.</a></p>
<p>I cannot predict their diagnosis, but I shall offer mine: <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/frontotemporal-dementia/symptoms-causes/syc-20354737">Fronto-temporal dementia</a>, with a variant of progressive non-fluent aphasia (inability to speak). </p>
<p>In other words, Trump acts in an impulsive, vulgar fashion and eats compulsively because the machinery in his brain to inhibit such behaviour is disintegrating. Further, his speech production area — known as <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/brocas-area-anatomy-373215">Broca’s area</a> — is also affected, resulting in limited speech and slurred pronunciation. Onset is insidious, but once symptoms are manifest with this disorder, the course is rapid. By next spring, Trump could likely be unable to speak at all if my suspicions are correct.</p>
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<p>Third, and perhaps most interesting, is the tectonic shift in cultural values spearheaded by women, a shift of the sort seen once or at most twice in a century. </p>
<p>This tidal wave is immediate, surprising, and hence loaded with information. After decades, perhaps millennia, women are sick and tired of being fondled, groped, invasively kissed, sexually harassed and raped. And they are speaking out with justifiable anger.</p>
<p>This is a remarkable revolt against the male conflation of power with passion.</p>
<p>In the court of public opinion these women are believable. Why? Because so many women have suffered precisely such indignities on a routine basis. Here Trump is utterly exposed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/07/donald-trump-leaked-recording-women">by his own words</a> as well as by at least 14 women who accuse him of harassment. </p>
<h2>History will be damning</h2>
<p>Most of us live our lives in the obscuring murk of anonymity, with its impending oblivion, buried in a fog of information. </p>
<p>Those in government, however, because there are so few of them, bear the risk of having their names carried forward to be judged by those yet unborn. Curiously, with a few exceptions, no one in Congress, or anyone associated with the White House, seems to be pondering this future. </p>
<p>I predict that the judgment on Trump and those who cleave to him and his ways will be damning, regardless of the political orientation of those in judgment. </p>
<p>Trump will not only have destroyed liberal norms and laws, he will have utterly discredited conservatism and the wealthy class that supports it. </p>
<p>He will have made of a great nation a small and irrelevant thing. And “Make America Great Again” will take on the tone befitting a Greek tragedy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88050/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Colarusso does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump generates chaos every day yet there is scant information in any of it Nonetheless, there are hints about his mental health, the consequences of the Russia probe and the power of women in 2018.John Colarusso, Professor of Languages and Linguistics and Anthropology, Department of Anthropology, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/891382017-12-16T13:43:40Z2017-12-16T13:43:40ZBlack voters won Alabama for the Dems. Here’s what they need in return<p>As a scholar of African-American and Southern politics for the last 25 years, I’ve witnessed a lot of election upsets and surprises. None has been more interesting than the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/us/politics/alabama-senate-race-winner.html">Democrat Doug Jones’ election</a> to the U.S. Senate in a Dec. 12 special election against Republican Roy Moore. </p>
<p>I’m not talking here about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/woman-says-roy-moore-initiated-sexual-encounter-when-she-was-14-he-was-32/2017/11/09/1f495878-c293-11e7-afe9-4f60b5a6c4a0_story.html">the controversy surrounding Moore’s sexual history</a>. No, for me this race was fascinating because America now <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/13/politics/black-voters-boosted-doug-jones/index.html">has black voters to thank</a> for helping Alabama send a Democratic senator to Washington for the first time in 25 years. </p>
<p>According to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.889972b0a8a1">exit polls</a>, 30 percent of the over 1 million people who participated in this election were black, and 96 percent of black voters supported Jones. In short, in an election where Jones’ margin of victory was <a href="http://whnt.com/2017/12/12/alabama-voter-turnout-far-surpasses-expectations-reaching-well-over-1-million-voters/">less than 2 percent</a>, Alabama’s near-unanimous black voters were the deciding factor. </p>
<p>Now that black Alabamians have accomplished their goal of electing their preferred representative, the big question is: What will they get in return? </p>
<h2>Voter concerns</h2>
<p>Black voters in the South, especially black female voters, are historically the <a href="https://newrepublic.com/minutes/144925/democrats-losing-loyal-voters-black-women">most loyal supporters of the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates</a>. They are a force powerful enough to sway the outcomes of elections in red states.</p>
<p>Having done so, black voters may reasonably expect Democrats to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/opinion/alabama-black-voters-democrats.html">thank them</a> by actually tackling the issues that disproportionately affect their communities. </p>
<p>Poverty is probably top on that list of concerns. Alabama is the sixth poorest state in the nation, with a poverty rate of <a href="https://datausa.io/profile/geo/alabama/">18.5 percent</a>. In some counties more than <a href="http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/07/alabama_is_6th_poorest_state_i.html">40 percent of people live in poverty</a>. Alabama’s rural areas have been said to show “<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/alabama-un-poverty-environmental-racism-743601">the worst poverty in the developed world</a>.”</p>
<p>Most of those areas are in <a href="http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2015/05/inside_the_numbers_5_startling.html">the state’s so-called “Black Belt.”</a> In Wilcox County, for example, the white poverty rate is 8.8 percent, but the black poverty rate is 50.2 percent. Nearby Lowndes County has the lowest white poverty rate in the state – 4.1 percent – but almost 35 percent of black people there live in poverty. </p>
<p>Other Black Belt counties show similar wealth disparities, with black households three to four times more likely to live in poverty than their white neighbors. Democrats have talked <a href="https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/10/29/politics/democrats-white-working-class/index.html">a lot about poor whites since the 2016 election</a>. It’s useful to remember that black people, particularly in the rural South, still face stunningly high rates of economic exclusion.</p>
<p>Entrenched poverty means that health care access for black Alabamians is also dismal. The Black Belt region <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-health-care-system-is-leaving-the-southern-black-belt-behind/">has fewer primary care physicians, dentists, mental health providers, and hospitals</a> than other parts of the state. It has a much higher rate of uninsured people than other regions. In most of its counties, more than 25 percent of residents lack access to health care – and that’s with the Affordable Care Act in place.</p>
<p>I believe Jones will also be expected to address Alabama’s educational achievement gap. The state has <a href="http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/07/alabamas_achievement_gap.html">20 to 30 percent differences</a> between the reading levels of black and white students, a discrepancy that results from such <a href="http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/07/alabamas_achievement_gap.html">factors</a> as a student’s family income, residential segregation and school resources – or the lack thereof. </p>
<p>Finally, black Alabama voters have expressed concern about crime and punishment in the state. Just <a href="https://suburbanstats.org/population/how-many-people-live-in-alabama">26 percent of Alabama’s population</a> is black, yet more than <a href="http://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/color-of-justice-racial-and-ethnic-disparity-in-state-prisons/">half its prison population is</a>, according to the Sentencing Project.</p>
<p>At the same time, in 2016, Alabama also had the <a href="https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/murder-rates-nationally-and-state#MRord">third-highest homicide rate in the U.S., after Louisiana and Missouri</a>, data from the Death Penalty Information Center shows. More than 71 percent of <a href="http://www.statemaster.com/graph/cri_hom_vic_by_rac_bla-crime-homicide-victims-race-black">homicide victims were African-American</a>. </p>
<h2>A real Alabama Democrat</h2>
<p>Black voters voted for Jones, rather than just against Moore, because they expect Jones care about issues like these. His <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/roy-moore-doug-jones-issues/index.html">campaign</a> centered on liberal causes like abortion access, support for the Affordable Care Act, LGBTQ rights and immigration reform and he has an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/us/doug-jones-alabama.html">extensive civil rights</a> background. </p>
<p>In 2002, as a U.S. Attorney in Alabama, Jones <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/black-voters-doug-jones-birmingham-church-bombing_us_5a313bd4e4b07ff75aff70d1">prosecuted two members of the Ku Klux Klan</a> for their roles in the 1963 bombing of the 16th Street Baptist Church, which killed four African-American girls. Both men were later sentenced to life in prison.</p>
<p>In 2007, Jones also testified before the House Judiciary Committee <a href="https://judiciary.house.gov/_files/hearings/pdf/Jones071023.pdf">in favor of re-examining crimes that took place during the Civil Rights Era</a>. Jones said that he believed civil rights activists could have been wrongly prosecuted, while hate crimes went unpunished.</p>
<p>Jones additionally <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/29/us/doug-jones-roy-moore-black-voters.html">campaigned heavily in predominantly black areas of Alabama</a> and benefited from an effective get-out-the-vote effort. African-American celebrities and politicians – including NBA legend and Alabama native Charles Barkley, Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, and U.S. Rep. John Lewis of Georgia – descended on the state to stump for Jones. </p>
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<span class="caption">Jones campaigning in Selma, an iconic city of the U.S. civil rights movement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Jeff Amy</span></span>
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<p>On election day in Alabama, <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/12/reports-of-voter-suppression-tactics-pour-in-from-alabama-election/">numerous reports surfaced of voter suppression</a> in predominantly black precincts. Even so, black voter turnout in this special election may have surpassed levels of the 2008 and 2012 general elections, when Barack Obama was on the ballot. </p>
<h2>A Republican birther</h2>
<p>Contrast this record with that of his competitor Roy Moore, the former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, who was <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/08/trump-endorses-roy-moore-again-287143">publicly endorsed by President Donald Trump</a>. </p>
<p>During the campaign, Moore was credibly accused of romantically <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/11/17/564752427/sexual-misconduct-allegations-continue-to-mount-against-roy-moore">pursuing girls as young as 14 years of age</a> when he was in his 30s. He has also made a number of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/10/alabama-senate-race-roy-moore-vladimir-putin-russia">homophobic</a> and <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/26/16365774/judge-roy-moore-us-constitution">Islamaphobic</a> comments. </p>
<p>Moore also has <a href="https://www.mediamatters.org/blog/2017/11/10/white-supremacist-leader-recently-donated-roy-moore-s-campaign/218519%E2%80%8B">ties to white nationalist groups</a>. In September, he <a href="http://time.com/5056590/roy-moore-america-great-slavery/">averred</a> that he thought that America had been “great” during slavery, saying that “at the time … families were united – even though we had slavery …. our country had a direction.” </p>
<p>Nor did Moore’s <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/22/politics/kfile-roy-moore-birther-comments/index.html">early leadership in the birther movement</a> – which erroneously alleges that former President Barack Obama was not born in the United States – endear him to African-Americans, in Alabama or elsewhere. </p>
<p>All of this helps explain why Democratic turnout <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/upshot/alabama-turnout-republican-problem.html">was far higher than white Republican turnout</a> in Alabama’s special election. That should send a strong message to the Republican Party about the power of black voices.</p>
<p>But, critically, it should also send a message to Democrats. For years, black Democrats have <a href="http://time.com/4292683/hillary-clinton-black-voters-al-sharpton/">warned that the party takes their votes for granted</a>. If Jones is to stand a chance at re-election, he’d do well to <a href="https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/12/what-doug-jones-and-the-democrats-owe-black-voters.html">represent the base</a> that sent him to Washington just as soon as he gets there.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89138/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sharon D. Wright Austin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Almost 100 percent of black Alabamians voted for Doug Jones. The Democratic senator-elect can thank this key base by addressing his home state’s problems with rural poverty, education and health care.Sharon D. Wright Austin, Associate Professor of Political Science and Director of African American Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/892012017-12-15T11:25:00Z2017-12-15T11:25:00ZWhat Doug Jones’s win means for Mitch McConnell, Steve Bannon and the Democrats<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199342/original/file-20171215-16469-zxm7fm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell calls for Roy Moore to step aside. He later said "let the voters decide."</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Here’s the thing about selling your soul: The devil had better deliver. It’s one thing to be damned; it’s another to be a damned loser. </p>
<p>This is the difficult lesson that the <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/363239-rnc-reverses-will-support-moore-in-alabama">Republican National Committee</a> and much of the GOP are learning right now, in the wake of Roy Moore’s loss on Tuesday. While there were <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/12/politics/republicans-roy-moore/index.html">plenty of Republicans</a> who refused to back Moore, there were also plenty who <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/08/trump-endorses-roy-moore-again-287143">did</a>, or chose to “<a href="http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2017/12/03/mitch-mcconnell-roy-moore-let-voters-decide-nr.cnn/video/playlists/roy-moore/">let the voters decide.</a>” </p>
<p>As someone <a href="http://www.scholarsstrategynetwork.org/scholar/david-barker">who has studied politics as long as I have knows</a>, the GOP holds no monopoly on betraying principles. But this was a pretty high profile investment in it. They did so presumably not because they are down with pedophilia, but because their discomfort with Moore – or for that matter, with Trump – did not outweigh their discomfort with losing power. For the past 18 months or so, and perhaps most conspicuously in the past couple of weeks, most Republicans seem to have calculated that their best path to maintaining power was to jump in bed with Steve Bannon and the so-called Trump base (maybe with the lights off, but still). And now here they are.</p>
<p>Sure, only one seat changed hands. But that one seat makes a big difference when you are clinging to such a <a href="https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm">precarious Senate majority</a>. One place where that difference is being felt immediately is on the tax bill. Any hope that the GOP would carefully work out the bill’s considerable <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/6/16737784/republican-conference-committee-tax-bill">kinks in a conference committee</a> is now lost. Republicans know they have to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/politics/republicans-tax-bill.html?mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=9741631344C251457E5A66A26E2B6B31&gwt=pay">get this thing done now</a>, before Jones is seated in January. The Senate bill only passed with <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/01/politics/senate-tax-bill-vote-uncertainty/index.html">51 votes</a>. Come 2018, all it would take is for John McCain to rediscover his <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/07/28/watch-senate-members-gasps-applaud-mccain-votes-no-skinny-repeal/519289001/">thumb</a> or for Rand Paul to get <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/6/16612734/rand-paul-neighbor-assault">beaten up</a> again (which is never out of the question), and the signature achievement of this GOP team would wind up falling short of final passage. And <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-gop-doesnt-care-if-you-like-its-tax-plan-heres-why-88467">as I wrote</a> a couple of weeks ago, if Republicans can’t cut taxes when they enjoy unified power, why do they get up in the morning?</p>
<p>Conservatives should finish their business on the tax bill now – because getting anything else on their wish list just became considerably more daunting. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/12/01/gop-eyes-post-tax-cut-changes-to-welfare-medicare-and-social-security/?utm_term=.e0d0bc1386b0">Entitlement reform</a>? Please. Swing vote Republican lawmakers like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski just became more powerful, and they aren’t going to put up with significant cuts to Medicare, Medicaid or SNAP.</p>
<p>Just as the moderates in the party are seeing their stock rise, the insurgents are surely seeing theirs fall. In case there was any doubt following the special elections in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-general-elections">Virginia</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-general-elections">New Jersey</a> last month, this Alabama outcome pretty well explodes the myth that candidates should cultivate Steve Bannon’s blessing. <a href="https://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/940788444506349569">Meghan McCain,</a> John McCain’s daughter and a Republican, pithily summed up the new conventional wisdom, tweeing “Suck it, Bannon.”</p>
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<p>As for 2018, the Democrats still have to draw an inside straight to gain control of the Senate. They are defending 26 seats, 11 of which are in states that Trump either won or lost narrowly. By comparison, the Republicans are only defending eight seats, mostly in deep red states. The Democrats only have two, or perhaps <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364048-dems-hope-bredesen-can-still-win-over-tn-voters">three</a>, realistic pickup opportunities. But they only need two, and Tuesday’s result means they now have a plausible chance at getting them. The party that is out of power <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/mid-term_elections.php">typically gains seats</a> in midterm elections anyway, even when the president is not <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/do-republicans-trump-latest-polls-show-base-slipping-approval-rating-plunges-715748">historically unpopular</a>. And recent <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2504">polling</a> shows that Democrats enjoy a double-digit lead when voters are asked which party they would prefer to control the Senate. If such sentiment holds for another 11 months, it may be enough to counterbalance a map that, in any other year, might be prohibitive.</p>
<p>And the sledding might grow even tougher for Republicans. Something has clearly changed since Trump was elected. <a href="https://www.theresistanceparty.org/">The Resistance</a> is gaining strength, as we could see even before Tuesday in the <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/358780-women-are-running-for-office-in-record-numbers">historic numbers</a> of women who are running for office, and in the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/metoo?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Ehashtag">#MeToo</a> locomotive. Alabama just gave the movement that much more momentum.</p>
<p>This is not just feminist protesters in coastal cities wearing <a href="https://theconversation.com/pussyhat-power-the-feminist-protesters-crafting-resistance-to-trump-and-his-supporters-72221">vaginas on their heads.</a> It isn’t just self-righteous entertainers making <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/08/arts/television/meryl-streep-golden-globes-speech.html?mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=056F56F2FCD72FD39756EF34169749A0&gwt=pay">windy acceptance speeches</a>. And it isn’t just college students asking for trigger warnings and <a href="https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/articles/2017-09-21/colleges-tackle-free-speech-trigger-warnings-safe-spaces">safe spaces</a>. It’s also <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/black-voters-mothers-and-millennials-carried-doug-jones-to-victory/">devout mothers</a> –- in red states, no less –- saying enough is enough.</p>
<p>It also helps Democrats that by ousting Sen. Al Franken and Rep. John Conyers, and by (mostly) cheering as the litany of offenders in Hollywood and the press have gone down, they can authentically claim the moral high ground on what may have become the most salient social issue of our time.</p>
<p>And in a reversal from 2016, the politics of race seem to be working in the Democrats’ favor these days as well. Turnout among <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/12/despite-the-obstacles-black-voters-make-a-statement-in-alabama/548237/">African-Americans has spiked,</a> while <a href="https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2017/11/8/16625578/rural-whites-no-show-virginia">falling among whites</a> in most of the special elections that have happened this year.</p>
<p>Looking forward to 2020, it’s too bad for Democrats that there isn’t a charismatic candidate who is ready-made to capitalize on this environment. Oh wait, <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2017-12-01/kamala-harris-navigates-the-2020-presidential-landscape">there is</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89201/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David C. Barker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Everything on the GOP wish list just became more daunting to achieve.David C. Barker, Professor of Government and Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, American University School of Public AffairsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/891102017-12-14T03:57:03Z2017-12-14T03:57:03ZAlabama and #MeToo’s disruptive force<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199121/original/file-20171213-27583-16rhcbc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A woman rallies for Doug Jones on Dec. 12. Jones defeated Republican
Roy Moore who was accused of sexual misconduct.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/John Bazemore</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Roy Moore’s electoral defeat in Alabama is an important victory for #MeToo. </p>
<p>Let’s recall that the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/woman-says-roy-moore-initiated-sexual-encounter-when-she-was-14-he-was-32/2017/11/09/1f495878-c293-11e7-afe9-4f60b5a6c4a0_story.html?utm_term=.fb2ff4de0146">allegations</a> about his preying on teenagers came to light amidst a wave of #MeToo-inspired charges. National attention to sexual harassment raised the profile of this state-level race. </p>
<p>The focus has now turned to Donald Trump, as some members of <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/will-congress-investigate-trump-sexual-misconduct-744841">Congress</a> call for investigating <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/12/what-happened-to-trumps-16-sexual-misconduct-accusers.html">multiple complaints</a> of sexual misconduct against him. If their call gains traction, it will be a remarkable development. </p>
<p>The words “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2017/10/the-movement-of-metoo/542979/">movement</a>,” “<a href="http://msmagazine.com/blog/2017/12/11/looking-back-moving-forward-history-tells-us-uprising/">uprising</a>,” and even “<a href="http://beta.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-farrow-woody-allen-me-too-20171207-story.html">revolution</a>” have been used to describe events over the past two months. As a feminist scholar, I see them as apt because of the unprecedented <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2017/12/06/times-person-of-the-year-the-silence-breakers-for-speaking-out-against-sexual-harassment/?utm_term=.e44cd8410049">momentum and scale</a> of the outcry.</p>
<p>There is also another term that quite precisely conveys what is happening: “disruption.” I borrow this term from <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/?id=SIexi_qgq2gC">technology and business writers</a> who use it to describe an upheaval of institutionalized ways of doing things. In many ways, what we are seeing is a textbook case of cultural disruption. </p>
<h2>Moving ‘relentlessly upwards’</h2>
<p>According to the theory, disruptors are typically <a href="https://hbr.org/2015/12/what-is-disruptive-innovation">small actors</a> who ask: Why should we do things the same way as before? They offer new and low-cost solutions to problems from below, moving “<a href="http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/">relentlessly upwards”</a> and “<a href="http://www.claytonchristensen.com/key-concepts/">eventually displacing</a>” established institutions. In our time, disruptions in the business world are mostly made possible by digital technology, the best examples being <a href="https://hbr.org/2015/12/what-is-disruptive-innovation">Netflix</a>, which used digital streaming to subvert network television, and <a href="https://medium.dave-bailey.com/how-to-know-if-your-product-is-disruptive-4f033c9d33e8">Airbnb</a>, which directly connected home sharers with potential guests.</p>
<p>I see sexual harassment victims as disruptors because they use social media platforms to circumvent legal channels for pursuing justice. The current sea change began with little-known individuals using Twitter and Facebook to share personal stories, echoing the “survivor speak-out” model long championed by feminists of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Take_Back_the_Night">anti-violence movement</a>. </p>
<h2><strong>Short-circuiting the law</strong></h2>
<p>The scale of the viral #MeToo hashtag led journalists to investigate and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/rape-in-the-storage-room-groping-at-the-bar-why-is-the-restaurant-industry-so-terrible-for-women/2017/11/17/54a1d0f2-c993-11e7-b0cf-7689a9f2d84e_story.html?utm_term=.3b7728b9bd72">publicize</a> victims’ stories. Effectively, this allowed a short-circuiting of the law. Lawsuits pose burdens of proof that are sometimes impossible to meet. How do you produce material evidence of unwanted touching or obscene words said in passing? So victims said: I need a different route to justice. By speaking publicly and shaming their harassers, victims have disrupted legal channels of redressal.</p>
<p>In court, you are innocent until proven guilty. But #MeToo has tilted public sympathy and power in favor of accusers by showing how widespread sexual coercion is. Taking accusers more seriously than those accused is a reversal of the principle of legal due process. Yet because those who are victimized have been so ill-served by legal burdens of proof, they are using the most effective alternative available. And many in the public are, for now, trusting the investigation process followed by reporters and management and ethics committees. </p>
<p>Some journalism outlets such as The Washington Post are using stringent investigative methods. Its reporters were not duped by false claims made by a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/a-woman-approached-the-post-with-dramatic--and-false--tale-about-roy-moore-sje-appears-to-be-part-of-undercover-sting-operation/2017/11/27/0c2e335a-cfb6-11e7-9d3a-bcbe2af58c3a_story.html?utm_term=.7dd0">sting operation</a>. The pressure to be thorough and fair is very high, since the possibility of <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Chuck-Schumer-Fake-Sex-Harassment-Scandal-New-York-City-463810263.html">false accusations</a> is real. This chaotic quality and the need for vigilance is reminiscent of other disrupted environments: Airbnb offers guests no guarantee of safety, and guests take on the risk of <a href="http://www.benedelman.org/publications/airbnb-guest-discrimination-2016-09-16.pdf">racism</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/02/travel/airbnb-lawsuit-host-sexual-assault.html">sexual assault</a>. </p>
<p>What remains to be worked out, after the dust settles, is a genuinely transformative solution to the problem of sexual coercion— one that goes beyond shaming and punishment to enabling perpetrators to take responsibility for the harm they have caused. </p>
<h2>Targeting specific sectors</h2>
<p>In the business world, disruptors typically take advantage of vulnerabilities in an industry or market. In this case, sexual harassment complaints are primarily effective in sectors where reputations matter, such as entertainment and politics. Media companies and political parties do not want to risk the public relations fallout from scandals. As a result, we see swift firings and resignations on the heels of allegations.</p>
<p>Yet media industries and politics, while being challenging environments for women, are not known to be the worst sites of gender-based abuse. The arenas considered historically unfriendly to women are <a href="http://www.catalyst.org/knowledge/women-male-dominated-industries-and-occupations">male-dominated sectors</a> such as <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0891243213510781">construction and blue-collar</a> trades, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-09-10/damning-report-reveals-bullying-harassment-among-surgeons/6763490">surgery</a> and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-hollywood-could-learn-from-wall-streets-sexual-harassment-reckoning">finance</a>. The most troubling sectors, feminist scholars note, are those where private settings make abuse easier, such as <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/women-in-the-service-sector-are-at-the-forefront-of-resisting-sexual-harassment/">domestic work or childcare</a>, and service industries such as <a href="http://rocunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/REPORT_TheGlassFloor_Sexual-Harassment-in-the-Restaurant-Industry.pdf">restaurants</a>, where the pressure to seek tips make servers succumb to customer requests. But harassers in these sectors are not celebrities and therefore less vulnerable to public shaming.</p>
<p>The term “disruption” is also apt because it is a wholesale attack on an institution. Disruptors draw few distinctions between the valuable and less-valuable features of institutions, or the worst or least offensive perpetrators. The goal is to upend a system, or in this case, to root out a systematic problem. For instance, the distinctions between Democrat and Republican party positions on women’s issues seem less meaningful right now, as allegations against members of both parties spill out. The pent-up fury driving victims to come forward has meant dispensing with this distinction.</p>
<p>Finally, it is worth noting that the energy associated with this movement, as with many disruptors, is youthful. The driving force behind the movement against sexual harassment is young women, who, according to a Pew survey, most readily identify it as a <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/12/07/americans-views-of-sexual-harassment-allegations/">widespread problem</a>. This is not surprising; it is those in the age range of 15-35 years who are most frequently harassed, and the young are also the most avid users of social media platforms. Women in older age groups are, of course, also speaking out about past experiences of harassment and its very real <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1744-6570.2007.00067.x/full">effect</a> on their lives and careers. But in the impatience and refusal of the status quo, we can distinctly hear a new generation’s voice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashwini Tambe received funding from SSHRC and NEH to study the history of girlhood in South Asia.</span></em></p>The word disruption describes an upheaval of institutionalized ways of doing things. Disruptors draw few distinctions between the valuable and less-valuable features of institutions.Ashwini Tambe, Editorial Director, Feminist Studies; Associate Professor, Department of Women's Studies, University of MarylandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/890502017-12-13T19:33:24Z2017-12-13T19:33:24ZHow Republican missteps turned Alabama blue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199057/original/file-20171213-27568-1gucpki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Doug Jones supporters celebrate his stunning victory.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/John Bazemore</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If there was one Republican in Alabama the Democratic Doug Jones could beat, Roy Moore was that Republican. </p>
<p>And in a Tuesday night nail-biter, Jones did just that, edging Moore by a mere 1.5 percentage points in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1992.</p>
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<p>So while the Democrats are celebrating a victory in the special election, perhaps it makes sense to ask: How did Republicans manage to lose this seat?</p>
<h2>How we got here</h2>
<p>Let’s take a moment simply to marvel at the bizarre and cumulatively improbable series of events that ever led us to a “Senator Jones.”</p>
<p>You could say it began in 2014. That’s when <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/robert-dianne-bentley-alabama-governor-wife-sex-scandal-resignation-2017-4">Dianne Bentley, wife of 50 years</a> to Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley, a 71-year-old Baptist deacon, began to suspect her husband was having an affair with a member of his staff decades his junior. Dianne planted a recording device in the governor’s office and captured some <a href="http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/03/hear_recording_that_helped_put.html#incart_big-photo">intimate phone dialogue</a>. The governor attempted to use state resources to cover up his affair. Dianne leaked her tape to the press and the controversy exploded. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, another scandal was brewing. Alabama Chief Justice and conservative firebrand, Roy Moore, was suspended from active service as a result of an ethics investigation stemming from orders he gave to the state’s <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/2/9/8005931/gay-marriage-roy-moore">67 probate judges to disregard the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision legalizing same-sex marriage</a>. This was, incredibly, <a href="http://www.al.com/news/birmingham/index.ssf/2016/09/alabama_supreme_court_chief_ju.html">the second time in his career</a> that he had been removed from the bench for defying a federal court order. </p>
<p>Back in gubernatorial purgatory, pressure had mounted upon Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange to investigate Bentley. Strange, though, was in no hurry to do this. You see, while the Bentley scandal was unfolding, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States. Trump selected Alabama’s junior U.S. senator, Jeff Sessions, to become his attorney general, thereby creating a vacancy in the Senate. </p>
<p>In this vacancy, Gov. Bentley <a href="http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/09/bentleys_notes_show_thinking_b.html">reportedly saw an opportunity</a> to avoid prosecution. He could appoint Strange to Sessions’ vacated seat, then appoint a new – presumably more sympathetic – state attorney general to replace Strange, and avoid prosecution. Allegedly to facilitate this scheme, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/28/us/alabama-senator-strange.html?_r=0">Strange sent a letter</a> to the Alabama House of Representatives urging them to slow down on articles of impeachment. In February 2017, Bentley appointed Strange to Sessions’ vacant seat. The public screamed foul at the apparent corrupt bargain. </p>
<p>After nearly a year of ceaseless controversy, Bentley entered into a deal to plead guilty to two misdemeanors, resign the governorship and avoid a more aggressive prosecution. Alabama Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey assumed the office of governor and swiftly moved up the date of Strange’s election by more than a year. Seizing upon this opportunity, the suspended Roy Moore resigned the chief justiceship and announced his opposition to Strange. The race pitted President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on the side of Strange with Trump’s former campaign director Steve Bannon supporting Moore. Roy Moore trounced Strange by <a href="http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/09/alabama_senate_runoff_live_upd.html">nearly 10 percentage points</a> on his way to the general election.</p>
<p>But at least one more shoe needed to drop. Approximately one month before the election, the Washington Post published <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/woman-says-roy-moore-initiated-sexual-encounter-when-she-was-14-he-was-32/2017/11/09/1f495878-c293-11e7-afe9-4f60b5a6c4a0_story.html">bombshell accusations</a> that Moore had serially preyed upon teenagers as young as 14 when he was in his 30s. A flurry of accusations followed, with a total of nine women accusing Moore of some sort kind of sexual misconduct. Before they knew it, Republicans found themselves in a neck-and-neck race with Jones, a former federal district attorney most famous for successfully <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/13/politics/doug-jones/index.html">prosecuting a Klansman who bombed the 16th Street Baptist Church</a>. </p>
<h2>A steep hill for any Democrat</h2>
<p><a href="https://books.google.es/books?id=wZ0wDwAAQBAJ">Previously</a>, I have argued that in a statewide race, “perceivably any Republican is preferable to perceivably any Democrat.” In an ordinary race, Jones would have been a severe underdog. His base, African-American voters, the young, urban, and the well-educated constitute only about 35 percent of the state’s electorate. Nevertheless, this was not an ordinary race.</p>
<p>Alabama’s Republican Party is predominantly composed of upper-middle class individuals and white evangelicals. Generally, they vote as an homogeneous group. But Roy Moore, like George Wallace before him, has been a perennially divisive figure. He vocally supports an agenda of Christian supremacy such as bringing back <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/roy-moore-quotes-slavery-abortion-homosexuality-alabama-742445">state-led school prayers, outlawing homosexuality and barring Muslims from serving in Congress.</a></p>
<p>Moore’s extremism makes wealthier and better-educated Republicans in Alabama’s cities and suburbs uneasy, but he remains the darling of the hinterland. Rural voters have largely disbelieved <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/alabama-republicans-allegations-against-moore-false-cbs-news-poll/">Moore’s accusers</a>. They characterize these accusations as contrived attacks upon a man they deeply affiliate with, ginned up by enemies who care more about tipping the outcome of an election than in reporting matters of fact. </p>
<p>Moore’s unique unpopularity meant that, even before the scandal, Jones had a fighting chance. In Moore’s last election in 2012, he only narrowly beat Democrat Bob Vance for the chief justiceship – <a href="http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2012/11/roy_moore_bob_vance_chief_just.html">earning 52 percent of the vote compared to the 61 percent</a> Mitt Romney earned the same day. Moore performed similarly yesterday compared to 2012 – even improving his performance in rural, overwhelmingly white counties. But his losses in more populous areas ultimately outweighed his strongholds.</p>
<p>Jones, like most Democrats, ran up the score in the cities and in the Black Belt – a swath of southern counties where a majority of voters are African-American. Moore did his best in the Wiregrass – counties near the Florida border – and in rural north Alabama. But when you compare Moore’s share of the vote with Donald Trump’s from last November, Moore’s numbers are worse in every single county.</p>
<p><iframe id="phDeb" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/phDeb/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Moore especially underperformed around the suburbs. In Shelby and Tuscaloosa Counties, located south and west of Birmingham, Moore’s share of the vote was about 16 percentage points below what Trump earned last year. In more highly educated counties, such as Madison – home to a NASA research center – Moore also performed poorly compared to Trump. </p>
<h2>Future of Alabama and Republican politics</h2>
<p>Both the Alabama and national Republican Parties have some soul-searching to do. Roy Moore’s failed Senate bid demonstrates fundamental weaknesses for a political party with a narrow, and narrowing, base of power. </p>
<p>Right about now, Republicans are nervously eyeing their suburban base of support. In the 1970s and ‘80s, the Republican Party carved out one of the most durable coalitions in American political history using suburban voters as a springboard to public office. Last year’s presidential election and this year’s special elections demonstrate that Republicans are healthy in the hinterland, but Democrats are making <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/nj-virginia-governor-election-2017-murphy-northam-trump-gop-20171107.html">important headway into the suburbs</a>. As the Republican Party becomes the Party of Trump and Moore, the party that looks the other way on alleged sexual assault and pedophilia, a study from the Pew Research Center shows <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2017/05/17/partisan-identification-is-sticky-but-about-10-switched-parties-over-the-past-year/">young, educated and wealthy voters leaving the party in droves</a>. </p>
<p>The Alabama Republican Party has less to fear than their national counterpart, but if candidates like Moore continue to win Republican primaries, that may change. Trump won Alabama by nearly 30 percentage points, and Roy Moore is a unique candidate. But even in highly conservative Alabama, Republicans have a demographic problem on their hands. </p>
<p>Young Republicans, in particular, are not aligned with many Republican values – especially not Moore’s. Presently, there is an effort to remove the Alabama Young Republicans from the state Republican Steering Committee for <a href="http://wiat.com/2017/12/06/talladega-county-gop-requests-alabama-young-republicans-lose-steering-committee-post/">rescinding their endorsement of Moore</a>. This generational rift will only worsen if the divide between the grassroots and the mainstream wings of the party cannot be mended. </p>
<p>Democrats may use this opportunity to begin digging themselves out from rubble that is their state party. They should begin with disaffected, young, better-educated and suburban voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89050/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hughes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It began with a sex scandal. How else?David Hughes, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Auburn University at Montgomery Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/889522017-12-13T10:19:06Z2017-12-13T10:19:06ZDemocrat Doug Jones wins Alabama Senate byelection in stunning upset; Bennelong is tied 50-50<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/198984/original/file-20171213-27565-jztyz5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Democrat candidate Doug Jones has had an unlikely win in the hard-fought Alabama Senate ballot.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters/ Marvin Gentry</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With all election-day votes counted, Democrat Doug Jones <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones">defeated</a> Republican Roy Moore by a 49.9-48.4 margin to win the Alabama Senate byelection today. Once Jones is seated, Republicans will hold only a 51-49 Senate majority, down from their current 52-48.</p>
<p>Donald Trump <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Alabama,_2016">crushed Hillary Clinton</a> by a 62-34 margin in Alabama at the 2016 Presidential election, so in Australian terms, this result is a swing to the Democrats of 14.6%.</p>
<p>The massive swing was partly due to Moore’s faults. His extreme right-wing views probably made him a liability even in a state as conservative as Alabama. <a href="https://theconversation.com/extreme-right-alabama-senate-candidate-accused-of-sexual-encounter-with-14-y-o-girl-87247">In November</a>, I wrote that Moore’s alleged sexual encounter with a 14-year-old girl, when he was 32, could damage him. Similar allegations against Moore were made by other women.</p>
<p>While Moore was a bad candidate, Trump and national Republicans can also be blamed for this result. <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/election/2017/results/alabama-senate">According to exit polls</a>, Trump’s approval with the Alabama electorate was split 48% approve, 48% disapprove, a large drop from his 2016 margin.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo">FiveThirtyEight’s poll aggregate</a>, Trump’s national ratings are 37% approve, 57% disapprove, for a net of -20. Trump’s ratings have recently slipped back to near-record lows, probably as a result of the unpopular Republican tax plan.</p>
<p>This tax plan is unlikely to be derailed by Jones’ win. Different versions have already passed the House and Senate, and Republicans still have some time before Jones is seated to pass the same version through both chambers of Congress. The current Senate version was passed 51-49. Even if Jones is seated, there would be a 50-50 tie, which would be broken by Vice-President Mike Pence.</p>
<p>The last Democrat to win an Alabama Senate contest was Richard Shelby in 1992, and he became a Republican in 1994. Southern Democrats used to easily win Alabama and other conservative southern states, but these Democrats were nicknamed “Dixiecrats”, and were definitely not left-wing. Doug Jones may be the <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/?lpup=10116119#livepress-update-10116119">first genuinely left-wing</a> Senator from Alabama.</p>
<p>The Alabama result will be a massive morale boost for Democrats, as many will think that if Democrats can win Alabama, they can win anywhere. This should allow Democrats to recruit strong candidates for the 2018 midterm elections. </p>
<p>According to the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo">FiveThirtyEight poll aggregate</a>, Democrats lead in the race for Congress by 47.2-37.5. If Democrats win the national popular vote by this margin next November, they should easily gain control of the House.</p>
<p>The Alabama result will make it more difficult for Republicans to pass legislation and get conservative judges approved. It also puts the Senate in play in November 2018, as Jones will not be up for election until 2020. Democrats now need to gain two seats in 2018 to take control, rather than three.</p>
<p>One-third of the Senate is up for election every two years, and Democrats won the 33 Senate seats up next year by a 25-8 margin in 2012. Republicans will only be defending eight seats, while Democrats defend 25. In these circumstances, two Senate seats are far easier to gain than three.</p>
<p>Most Alabama polls gave Moore a three-to-seven-point lead over Jones, with one at a nine-point Moore lead. <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html">The Monmouth and Washington Post polls</a> (respectively tied and Jones by three) were the most accurate. Ironically, the Fox News poll was the most pro-Jones, giving him a ten-point lead.</p>
<h2>Bennelong Newspoll 50-50</h2>
<p>The Bennelong byelection will be held on Saturday, December 16. A <a href="http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0122c727287a6ed238c8d5ab04c7fc29?width=1024">Bennelong Newspoll</a>, conducted December 9-10 from a sample of 529, had a 50-50 tie, a ten-point swing to Labor from the 2016 election. Primary votes were 39% Liberal, 39% Labor, 9% Greens, 7% for Cory Bernardi’s Conservatives and 2% Christian Democrats.</p>
<p>Newspoll is assuming that Conservative and Christian Democrat preferences are as favourable to the Liberals as Greens preferences are for Labor.</p>
<p>At the <a href="https://theconversation.com/bennelong-polls-galaxy-50-50-reachtel-53-47-to-liberal-87725">start of the campaign</a>, more than three weeks ago, Galaxy had a 50-50 tie, while ReachTEL gave the Liberals a 53-47 lead. This Newspoll is the first publicly released Bennelong poll since then, though <em>The Australian</em> reported last week that <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2017/12/12/essential-research-54-46-labor-newspoll-50-50-bennelong/">internal Liberal polling</a> had them leading 54-46.</p>
<p>In past elections, individual seat polls have been inaccurate. There is some chance of a Labor win in Bennelong, but there is also some chance of a thumping Liberal win.</p>
<p>Newspoll asked about Labor candidate Kristina Keneally’s performance when she was NSW premier. 19% thought she was one of the worst premiers, 15% below average, 26% average, 23% better than average, and 10% one of the best. The Liberals have attacked Keneally on her record as premier, but this does not appear to have worked.</p>
<p>The national polls below indicate the media frenzy over Sam Dastyari has had little impact on voting intentions. Often issues that excite partisan voters have little resonance with the general public.</p>
<h2>Essential 54-46 to federal Labor</h2>
<p>The Coalition gained a point in <a href="http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Essential-Report_121217.pdf">this week’s Essential</a>, but this was due to rounding. Labor led 54-46, from primary votes of 38% Labor, 35% Coalition, 10% Greens, 7% One Nation and 2% Nick Xenophon Team. Essential uses a two-week sample of about 1,800 for voting intentions. Additional questions use one week’s sample.</p>
<p>Despite Labor’s strong lead in voting intentions, Turnbull’s net approval improved from -12 in November to -3. Shorten’s net approval also improved from -13 to -9.</p>
<p>71% thought it is important that sexual harassment claims in the film and TV industry are exposed, while just 17% thought exposing these claims could unfairly harm reputations. 55% thought the current media attention on sexual harassment would bring about lasting change in the Australian workplace, while 30% thought it would soon be forgotten.</p>
<p>Considering energy policy, 37% said costs should be prioritised (up nine since June), 18% thought reliability should be prioritised (down three) and 15% carbon emissions (down four).</p>
<h2>YouGov primary votes: 35% Labor, 34% Coalition, 11% Greens, 8% One Nation</h2>
<p><a href="https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7f35zond0m/50AcresResults_171211_Wave17_w.pdf">This week’s YouGov</a>, conducted December 7-10 from a sample of 1,032, had primary votes of 35% Labor (up 3 since last fortnight), 34% Coalition (up 2), 11% Greens (up 1) and 8% One Nation (down 3). </p>
<p>Although this poll would be about 54-46 to Labor by 2016 election preferences, YouGov’s respondent allocated preferences are tied 50-50, a three-point gain for the Coalition.</p>
<p>By 40-39, voters thought Turnbull should stand down as prime minister and let someone else take over, rather than remain prime minister. 28% said Turnbull’s decision to go ahead with the banking royal commission gave them a more positive view of him, 15% more negative and 52% said it made no difference.</p>
<p>39% expected Labor to win the next federal election, 24% the Coalition, and 14% expected a hung parliament.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88952/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Doug Jones has won a tough battle to represent Alabama in the US Senate; meanwhile, the crucial byelection in Bennelong is neck-and-neck, with huge implications for the government if it loses.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/881212017-11-30T23:42:31Z2017-11-30T23:42:31ZThe Shape of Water leads Oscar nominations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197020/original/file-20171129-12027-ysgcfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">"The Shape of Water" film is a beautiful allegory about accepting differences. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Jean</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As a mathematician and film buff, I seek out movies featuring STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) or science fiction themes and <a href="https://theconversation.com/tiff-2017-movie-magic-from-math-and-science-83695">even reviewed a couple for <em>The Conversation Canada</em></a> in September during the Toronto International Film Festival. This year, it was the <em><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5580390/">The Shape of Water</a></em> I had to see.</p>
<p>It is no surprise that <em>The Shape of Water</em> won Best Picture at the Oscars. Guillermo del Toro’s beautiful romance about choosing love over fear <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/oscars-2018-nominations-list-full-three-billboards-shape-of-water-lady-bird-dunkirk-get-out-darkest-a8173991.html">picked up 13 nominations</a> including best picture, best director and best leading actress for Sally Hawkins. </p>
<p><em>The Shape of Water</em> is a gorgeous and entertaining movie, but it also has a timely, allegorical message about our willingness to accept difference. </p>
<p>Three people, all from the margins, come together over their love for a humanoid sea creature and go to great lengths to save it. The humanoid creature is misunderstood — perhaps like the trio themselves in this early 1960s depiction. One is a person of colour, the other a gay man and the last one a “working class” woman rendered mute from traumatic childhood experiences. </p>
<p>In contrast, the scientists in the film only want to study the creature. The military and bureaucrats call the creature “The Asset” and want to weaponize it. </p>
<p>The night of the film’s premiere at TIFF, there was a palpable buzz in the air. I caught a glimpse of Octavia Spencer, who stars in the film, and edged my way as close as I could get to the front row for a good view of the cast before the film, introduced by director Guillermo del Toro. Toronto Mayor John Tory spoke before the film, and there was a sighting of Benedict Cumberbatch in the audience. </p>
<p>The film had recently <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/venice-film-festival-awards-announced-1037091">won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film festival</a>. Everyone there, including me, was ready for something special.</p>
<p>I wasn’t disappointed. <em>The Shape of Water</em> was a triumphant, modern-day fairytale, and one of the year’s best films. </p>
<h2>Not your usual monster flick</h2>
<p>With a filmography that includes <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0457430/"><em>Pan’s Labryinth</em></a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1663662/"><em>Pacific Rim</em></a> and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0167190/"><em>Hellboy</em></a>, it’s safe to say that monsters are director Guillermo del Toro’s speciality. The title of del Toro’s current Art Gallery of Ontario exhibit, <a href="https://ago.ca/exhibitions/guillermo-del-toro">At Home with Monsters</a>, is entirely appropriate. One of his persistent themes is finding the beauty and wonder in fantastical creatures, and his latest offering is no exception. </p>
<p><em>The Shape of Water</em> focuses on the unlikely love story between the amphibious humanoid creature and janitor Elisa Esposito, played by Sally Hawkins. She has no spoken dialogue, as she has lost her voice, save for one offbeat musical daydream. Hawkins’ breathtaking performance is remarkable in many ways and made more memorable by how effortlessly we connect with her character. Elisa speaks more with a single glance than others in the film say in minutes of conversation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Strickland (Michael Shannon) interrogates Elisa (Sally Hawkins) and Zelda (Octavia Spencer) when an important government asset goes missing in ‘The Shape of Water.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Kerry Hayes)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The creature is played by Doug Jones, who may be familiar as Lt. Saru from the new TV series <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5171438/">Star Trek: Discovery</a>. Like Hawkins, Jones has no dialogue in the movie, acting underneath a rubber and latex bodysuit. Michael Shannon, Octavia Spencer, Michael Stuhlbarg and Richard Jenkins round out a powerhouse supporting cast. </p>
<p>Much of the shooting for the movie took place in Toronto, the city del Toro calls home. Torontonians will recognize The Lakeview restaurant in the city’s west end. The scenes shot in the downtown Elgin Theatre garnered enthusiastic applause from the local audience.</p>
<h2>Shines a light</h2>
<p>In mathematical research, we create new patterns from nothingness. We shine a light and illuminate the darkness. Film can play a similar role, revealing to us a larger world with its own depth and mystery. </p>
<p><em>The Shape of Water</em> shines a light. Although it is set in the early 1960s, is a perfect commentary for our time. It asks us to reflect on the qualities that distinguish us; it asks us where we stand. </p>
<p>It brings to light the plight of our fellow residents when they are considered “outsiders,” whether that includes race, gender, sexual orientation or gender identity. </p>
<p>It asks us to think about the impact of new scientific discoveries on the environment: Science can be used to either respect or dominate the natural world. </p>
<p>As someone working in STEM and as a gay person, these are issues with which I have a strong connection. But like the characters’ reactions to the creature, everyone will take away something different from the film. </p>
<p>The film tells us that rather than fearing the unknown, we should embrace it. As <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4bIxkHKqT4">del Toro said</a> after the TIFF premiere: “It is important to choose love over fear because love is the answer.” </p>
<p>As I watched the final scenes between Elisa and the creature, I came to my own conclusion about the message of the <em>The Shape of Water</em>: <em>The universe is not only alive, it’s magical</em>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XFYWazblaUA?wmode=transparent&start=21" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The trailer for The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Bonato does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Shape of Water is an entertaining movie, but it also has a timely, allegorical message about the challenges we may face with new scientific discoveries, and our willingness to accept difference.Anthony Bonato, Professor of Mathematics, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.