tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/flood-protection-23892/articlesFlood protection – The Conversation2022-08-18T20:06:05Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1889702022-08-18T20:06:05Z2022-08-18T20:06:05ZNo, not again! A third straight La Niña is likely – here’s how you and your family can prepare<p>Hearts sank along the Australian east coast this week when the Bureau of Meteorology <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">announced</a> a third consecutive La Niña was likely this year. La Niña weather events typically deliver above-average rainfall in spring and summer. </p>
<p>But the last two La Niñas mean our catchments are already full. Dams are at capacity, soils are saturated and rivers are high. In some cases, there’s nowhere for the rains to go except over land. </p>
<p>Over the past 18 months, many communities have been hit by floods – some <a href="https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-affair/warragamba-dam-sydney-floods-raise-walls/c2c7f26c-8fce-43fc-a830-e7dd7a378c0b">more than once</a>. For these residents, the prospect of a third La Niña will be extremely concerning. And some people who’ve never experienced floods may now be at risk.</p>
<p>Our current research project is examining the experiences of flood-hit communities in New South Wales and Queensland – and our interviews have already yielded useful insights. So let’s take a look at what we should be thinking about now as another wet summer looms.</p>
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<h2>Water isn’t always fun</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.canstar.com.au/home-insurance/natural-disasters-australia/">Floods</a> are among the deadliest natural hazards in Australia. Yet in Australian culture, water often equates to fun. From a young age we’re taught to swim, enjoy and “master” the dangers that water poses. </p>
<p>So during floods we often see risky behaviours such as driving and playing in dangerous water.</p>
<p>Recent floods, however, brought home the reality of the threat. Few could forget images of frightened families being <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/nsw-flood-update-chopper-rescue-woodburn/14ecbdf2-e8d2-461b-aece-95202e234fbf">winched</a> off roofs by helicopter, water rushing from spilling dams and everyday people <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-01/lismore-floods-how-two-blokes-in-a-tinnie-saved-25-lives/100869798">rescuing</a> their neighbours.</p>
<p>The NSW government on Wednesday released an <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/nsw-government/projects-and-initiatives/floodinquiry">independent report</a> into this year’s floods. It examined flooding from February to April and again in July – mostly around the Northern Rivers, Sydney’s Hawkesbury-Nepean and the central to north coasts.</p>
<p>The report contained troubling statistics, including:</p>
<ul>
<li>nine people tragically died</li>
<li>7,700 people sought emergency accommodation </li>
<li>14,600 homes were damaged</li>
<li>5,300 homes were left uninhabitable.</li>
</ul>
<p>Releasing the report, NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet said <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/up-to-40-000-residents-risk-flood-evacuation-in-sydney-s-west-by-2040-perrottet-20220817-p5baj8.html">up to 40,000</a> Western Sydney residents risked flood evacuation by 2040, if flood conditions similar to those in July were repeated and no mitigation action was taken.</p>
<p>The inquiry revealed a central theme: the need for a renewed and stronger emphasis on sustained disaster preparedness. Otherwise, as the report noted, the emergency response becomes harder:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Preparedness is discussed in relation to emergency management and our natural and built environment. But an important component of preparedness is at a personal or family level. Failure to prepare at this level makes preparations at other levels more difficult and expensive. </p>
</blockquote>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-causing-sydneys-monster-flood-crisis-and-3-ways-to-stop-it-from-happening-again-186285">What's causing Sydney's monster flood crisis – and 3 ways to stop it from happening again</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="police van stuck in flood waters" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479802/original/file-20220818-230-a5008y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479802/original/file-20220818-230-a5008y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479802/original/file-20220818-230-a5008y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479802/original/file-20220818-230-a5008y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479802/original/file-20220818-230-a5008y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479802/original/file-20220818-230-a5008y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479802/original/file-20220818-230-a5008y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Failing to prepare for floods can make the emergency response harder.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jason O'Brien/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Don’t worry. Your house won’t get wet’</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://lighthouse.mq.edu.au/media-releases/flooded-in-2022-share-your-experience-to-improve-flood-safety">current research</a> is examining the experiences of those affected by this year’s floods to gather insights on preparedness and response. Participants can take part in an interview, a survey or both. </p>
<p>Our interviews are already providing useful insights. They include the possibility that prior experience of flood, and the well-meaning reassurances of others, can hinder preparations. As one respondent said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>the house, having been built on a mound, has never been flooded and that’s why my neighbour said, ‘Don’t worry. Your house won’t get wet. It’s never got wet in 70 years’. But this was unprecedented.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>With another wet summer likely, interviewees are starting to see major flooding as a “new normal” rather than a once-in-a-lifetime experience. This is causing them to question the future of their communities. As another respondent told us:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>that’s the part that I’m struggling with now is that it feels like it’s unviable to live here because there’s no security, and when you take away people’s security, your life tends to unravel.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We hope our research will influence policy and practice on flood preparation, community engagement and risk messaging, and shed light on more permanent changes required.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/i-simply-havent-got-it-in-me-to-do-it-again-imagining-a-new-heart-for-flood-stricken-lismore-178982">'I simply haven’t got it in me to do it again': imagining a new heart for flood-stricken Lismore</a>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="family walks through floodwaters, including girl holding pet carrier" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479803/original/file-20220818-25-grfwqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/479803/original/file-20220818-25-grfwqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479803/original/file-20220818-25-grfwqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479803/original/file-20220818-25-grfwqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479803/original/file-20220818-25-grfwqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479803/original/file-20220818-25-grfwqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/479803/original/file-20220818-25-grfwqf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The authors hope their work will influence policy and practice on flood preparation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tracey Nearmy/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Be prepared</h2>
<p>So what should you do if flooding is forecast and you need to evacuate? Here’s what experts recommend:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>identify the safest route to your nearest safe location and leave well before roads flood</p></li>
<li><p>move vehicles, valuables, outdoor equipment, garbage and poisons to higher locations</p></li>
<li><p>enact safety plans for pets and other animals</p></li>
<li><p>take medications and identification with you</p></li>
<li><p>tell friends, family and neighbours of your plans</p></li>
<li><p>know where to go for information. Monitor alerts and stay aware of changing situations</p></li>
<li><p>keep your mobile phone charged and have at least half a tank of fuel in your vehicle</p></li>
<li><p>turn off electricity, gas, and water at the mains before you leave. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Of course, flood preparation should not be left until the last minute. Now is a good time to think about what might happen in the months ahead. Things you can do now include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>clean up outside and inside, move or secure items that could float or create a hazard</p></li>
<li><p>move valued possession to higher places in your home</p></li>
<li><p>pack an emergency bag and keep it at the ready</p></li>
<li><p>consider which friends or family you might stay with if needed.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>For further advice, head to the website of your state’s emergency service agencies.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4aIy0TU-Mco?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Thinking long-term</h2>
<p>Climate change <a href="https://www.climatechange.environment.nsw.gov.au/climate-change-will-exacerbate-natural-disasters-including-flooding">will exacerbate</a> floods and other natural hazards. Communities must be supported to prepare as best they can. </p>
<p>More permanent measures are also needed, such as land buybacks to move people out of flood-prone areas. And importantly, planning systems must ensure we don’t keep building on floodplains. </p>
<p>Our approach to disaster readiness will continue to change. Already, experts are providing advice on matters such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-hard-to-breathe-and-you-cant-think-clearly-if-you-defend-your-home-against-a-bushfire-be-mentally-prepared-127019">emotional preparedness</a> and <a href="https://www.naturalhazards.com.au/research/research-projects/community-led-recovery-evidence-dimensions-and-supports-community">recovery</a> in the aftermath. </p>
<p>One thing is clear: in the face of the increasing disaster threat, temporary and seasonal preparations are no longer enough. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/one-of-the-most-extreme-disasters-in-colonial-australian-history-climate-scientists-on-the-floods-and-our-future-risk-178153">'One of the most extreme disasters in colonial Australian history': climate scientists on the floods and our future risk</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mel Taylor receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katharine Haynes is the NSW, ACT and SA node research manager for Natural Hazards Research Australia</span></em></p>Catchments are full. Dams are at capacity, soils are saturated and rivers are high. In some cases, there’s nowhere for the rains to go except over land.Mel Taylor, Associate Professor, Macquarie UniversityKatharine Haynes, Honorary Senior Research Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1530772021-02-22T18:57:27Z2021-02-22T18:57:27ZWhy we should release New Zealand’s strangled rivers to lessen the impact of future floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/384887/original/file-20210217-17-1yyb8s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=410%2C39%2C8314%2C2886&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Tracey McNamara</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When two West Coast rivers flooded on the same day in 2019, the Waiho tore down a bridge and <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/385737/lifeline-bridge-washed-away-in-west-coast-flooding">cut off local communities</a> for 18 days, and the Fox <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/300051150/rubbish-from-old-landfill-washes-into-river-and-sea-after-heavy-rain">eroded a landfill</a>, exposing 135 tonnes of rubbish that contaminated beaches more than 100km away. </p>
<p>A flood on the Rangitata River during the same year <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/405178/timaru-district-floods-rangitata-residents-told-to-evacuate">severed road, rail and power connections</a> along the east coast of the South Island and cut a 25km path to the sea through prime dairy country.</p>
<p>We shouldn’t be surprised when our rivers break their banks — that’s just a river being a river. Current management practices in Aotearoa treat rivers as static, in the hope of making them more predictable. </p>
<p>But this can lead to disasters. </p>
<p>The recently announced <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/rma-be-repealed-and-replaced">reform</a> of the Resource Management Act (<a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/rma/processes-and-how-get-involved/everyday-guide-rma">RMA</a>) is an opportunity to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169555X15002676">address river confinement</a>, but it isn’t enough. We need to change the way we think about rivers. </p>
<p>By forcing rivers into confined channels, we are strangling the life out of them and creating “<a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/afternoons/audio/2018706240/are-we-making-zombie-rivers">zombie rivers</a>”.</p>
<p>Unless we change management practices to work with a river, giving it space to move and allowing channels to adjust, we will continue to put people and rivers on a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rra.3343">collision course</a>. </p>
<p>When flood risk is managed poorly, disadvantaged groups of the population are often <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-020-03887-z">disproportionately impacted</a>. Given climate change predictions of more extreme floods and drought, the problem will only get worse.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/letting-rivers-run-wild-could-reduce-uk-flooding-new-research-138037">Letting rivers run wild could reduce UK flooding – new research</a>
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<p><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1463/LowerRakaia_1998-2020_FalseColourLandsatTimeseries_%281%29.gif?1612826257" width="100%"> </p>
<h2>Working with a river, not against it</h2>
<p>A healthy river is resilient, constantly adjusting its path and regenerating habitats, with significant <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/book/10.1029/GM194">capacity to self-heal</a> and recover from disturbance. </p>
<p>Although New Zealanders associate with the <a href="http://www.environmentguide.org.nz/issues/freshwater/the-freshwater-environment/freshwater-values/">ecological and cultural values</a> of living rivers, such as ancestral connections and places of food gathering (mahingai kai), our management practices continue to treat rivers as unchanging. This reflects a <a href="https://www.canterbury.ac.nz/engage/cup/catalogue/books/new-zealands-rivers-an-environmental-history.html">colonial approach</a> that tries to confine rivers within defined corridors to maximise the availability of land and manage flood risk. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Images of river channels of the Ngaruroro River, and how they changed between 1950 and 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385180/original/file-20210218-22-11r690h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/385180/original/file-20210218-22-11r690h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385180/original/file-20210218-22-11r690h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385180/original/file-20210218-22-11r690h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=262&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385180/original/file-20210218-22-11r690h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385180/original/file-20210218-22-11r690h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/385180/original/file-20210218-22-11r690h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=329&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Photogrammetric and satellite images from identical positions show how a section of the Ngaruroro River, in the Hawkes Bay, changed between 1950 (left) and 2020 (right).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NZ Aerial Photography (via Retrolens), SN541 (1950) and Google Earth/Digital Globe (2000).</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>River confinement in New Zealand is the result of both engineering works such as stop banks, intentionally focused on flood defence, and the slow creep of agricultural encroachment. Current river management practices are funded by targeted rates paid by landowners. Their goal is to protect as much land as possible as cheaply as possible. </p>
<p>This has arguably been very effective to date and is understandable, but ignores other river values. It also misses the point that when design limits are exceeded, disaster usually follows. </p>
<h2>Effective river management</h2>
<p>There are always <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/05/21/610945127/levees-make-mississippi-river-floods-worse-but-we-keep-building-them">trade-offs</a>. For example, planting introduced willows along river banks is a cost-effective way of trying to control the river in the short term. But willows spread aggressively and choke the river, diminishing habitat diversity and reducing the river’s capacity to transport flood waters and gravel. This exacerbates risk in the medium to long term. </p>
<p>In scientific terms, effective approaches to river management look after the geomorphology of river systems — the interactions that shape the changing mosaic of river habitats — alongside concerns for water quality and aquatic ecology. This requires analysis of flows and sediment deposition to assess how a river uses its energy. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-dams-cause-more-problems-than-they-solve-removing-them-can-pay-off-for-people-and-nature-137346">When dams cause more problems than they solve, removing them can pay off for people and nature</a>
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</em>
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<p>When a river has space to move, it dissipates its energy. This builds its capacity to recover from disturbances and maintain a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/esp.4058">dynamic but stable state</a>. Constraining a river’s flow into a restricted space concentrates flow energy, increases flood magnitude and accentuates problems downstream. </p>
<p>Rather than forcing a river into a defined place (which also often limits people’s access to it), more responsive and low-impact practices would embrace a <a href="https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/pq/article/view/5687">harmonious relationship</a> with <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338307376_Finding_the_Voice_of_the_River_Beyond_Restoration_and_Management">dynamic, living and adjusting rivers</a>.</p>
<h2>Reframing environmental law</h2>
<p>Just as landowners often perceive wetlands as potential farm land once drained, planted river margins are sometimes considered “wasted” land. <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/116491371/environment-canterbury-loses-crucial-appeal-over-width-of-regions-river-beds">Agricultural encroachment</a> removed more than 11,000 hectares of braided river bed on the Canterbury Plains between 1990 and 2012.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Changing flows of the braided Waimakariri river between 1942 and 2020." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383138/original/file-20210208-17-1xw10kv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383138/original/file-20210208-17-1xw10kv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383138/original/file-20210208-17-1xw10kv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383138/original/file-20210208-17-1xw10kv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383138/original/file-20210208-17-1xw10kv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383138/original/file-20210208-17-1xw10kv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383138/original/file-20210208-17-1xw10kv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Changing flows of the braided Waimakariri river between 1942 and 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The current wording of the Resource Management Act (<a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/rma/processes-and-how-get-involved/everyday-guide-rma">RMA</a>) allows this, as its definition of river bed assumes a static river channel. This is clearly inappropriate for braided rivers, which have multiple shifting channels.</p>
<p>That said, we are cautiously optimistic about reframing the RMA to promote more judicious choices of land for development.</p>
<h2>Reducing the impacts of future disaster</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-3005-2">International studies</a> show that allowing a river to self-adjust is cheaper and more effective than active interventions that force a river into a particular place. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169555X02002192">Europe</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15715124.2016.1209510?src=recsys&journalCode=trbm20">Japan</a> have a long history of confining rivers. Once management practices start on this path, they become locked into progressively building more and more expensive hard engineering structures. Many rivers in Aotearoa New Zealand are less modified than those in other parts of the world. Changing management practices now can have a significant positive effect. </p>
<p>Contemporary scientifically-informed approaches to river management directly align with te ao Māori, wherein practices respect ancestral connections, living with rivers <a href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/8/595/2020/esurf-8-595-2020.html">rather than seeking to control them</a>. This presents an opportunity for regenerative relations to living rivers, recognising and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rra.3343">enhancing their mana</a> so they can function unimpeded. </p>
<p>Although rivers in Aotearoa are well described and we have some of the best databases and monitoring practices, this does not mean we are giving effect to the principle of <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/sites/default/files/media/Te%20Mana%20o%20te%20Wai.pdf">Te Mana o te Wai</a>, which aims to respect the natural need of a river to adjust as a living entity.</p>
<p>Working with the processes that create and rework a river channel and its floodplain will reduce the impacts of future disasters. Recognising the links between sections of a river and the whole catchment will help us assess how likely it is that the river will adjust to accommodate larger and more frequent future floods. </p>
<p>An honest discussion now could save us the direct and indirect costs of future clean-up and repair. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048969720303272">Reanimating rivers</a> seeks to respect the rights of healthy, living rivers that erode and flood in the right place and at the right rate. </p>
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<p><em>This article is part of a series The Conversation is running on the nexus between disaster, disadvantage and resilience. It is supported by a philanthropic grant from the Paul Ramsay foundation. You can read the rest of the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/disaster-and-resilience-series-97537">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153077/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gary John Brierley receives (or received) funding from the Marsden Fund, Australian Research Council, Land and Water Australia (formerly LWRRDC) and various international collaborative grants (NERC in the UK, SPARC in India, Three Brothers funding in China).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dan C H Hikuroa (Ngāti Maniapoto, Waikato-Tainui, Ngāti Whanaunga, Pākehā) receives funding from Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga and the Marsden Fund. He is affiliated with Pūniu River Care Incorporated (Board member), Chair of Ngā Kaihautu Tikanga Taiao (Māori Statutory Advisory to the Environmental Protection Authority), UNESCO NZ Commissioner for Culture and is a member of the Watercare Environmental Advisory Group.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Heide Friedrich has recently received funding from the George Mason Centre for the Natural Environment. She is Chair of the New Zealand Rivers Group, a joint technical interest group of Engineering New Zealand and Water New Zealand. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Christopher Fuller is affiliated with Engineering New Zealand's Rivers Group as an Executive Committee Member. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Brasington receives funding from multiple regional councils in Aotearoa New Zealand, the Ministry for Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) as well as overseas research funding agencies. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jo Hoyle works for NIWA and receives research funding from NIWA and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE). She is affiliated with the New Zealand Rivers Group, a joint technical interest group of Engineering New Zealand and Water New Zealand. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Tunnicliffe works for The University of Auckland (School of Environment) and receives research funding from regional councils and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE). He is affiliated with the New Zealand Rivers Group, a joint technical interest group of Engineering New Zealand and Water New Zealand.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristiann Allen receives funding from the International Development Research Centre for globally connected research and capacity building on systems and practices for evidence-informed public policy and science advice to governments in relation to the Sustainable Development Goals. She is Associate Director (Policy and International engagement) of Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures at the University of Auckland, and directs the secretariat of the International Network for Government Science Advice (INGSA), which is hosted by Koi Tū.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Measures works for NIWA and receives research funding from NIWA and the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE). He is a committee member of the New Zealand Rivers Group, a joint technical interest group of Engineering New Zealand and Water New Zealand. </span></em></p>Given climate change predictions of more extreme floods in New Zealand, it’s time to change management practices to work with a river, allowing it room to move and its channels to adjust.Gary John Brierley, Professor, Chair of Physical Geography, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauDan C H Hikuroa, Senior Lecturer, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauHeide Friedrich, Associate Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauIan Christopher Fuller, Professor in Physical Geography, Massey UniversityJames Brasington, Professor of River Science, University of CanterburyJo Hoyle, River Geomorphologist, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric ResearchJon Tunnicliffe, Senior Lecturer in River Science, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauKristiann Allen, Associate Director, Policy and International Relations at Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata RauRichard Measures, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric ResearchLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1331372020-03-11T14:00:31Z2020-03-11T14:00:31ZJapan’s experience with earthquakes can help teach us to learn to live with floods<p>The intense rainfall from storms this winter <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51713172">has caused severe flooding</a> in numerous cities across the UK. The storms have left at least eight people dead, and economic losses have been estimated at a few billion pounds. The government has responded by announcing <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51784660">flood defence spending will be doubled</a> to £5.2 billion pounds over the next five years. Such severe flooding may seem like a rare event, but – as those living in the most flood-prone areas will tell you – it is not. </p>
<p>There was flooding to a similar if not greater extent between December 2013 and January 2014, which killed 17 people and cost £1.3 billion in economic losses. At the time the Met Office reported that it was the <a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/uk-floods-storms-britain-wettest-winter-on-record">wettest Dececember-January period on record</a>. There was also major flooding across the UK in 2016, and previously in 2009, 2007 and 2000, and flooding of lesser extent in other years as well. </p>
<p>What this suggests is that regularity of major flooding in the UK has dropped from every 15 to 30 years as it was over the 20th century, to between every two to seven years today.</p>
<p>More frequent major flooding puts unprecedented pressure on flood defences, with insufficient time and resources to recover between major events as in the past. We need to acknowledge that in the UK – as is the case elsewhere – flood defences are 20th century approaches now ill-suited to tackle what the 21st century is throwing at us.</p>
<p>Civil engineers have usually been employed to build “hard” structural solutions, such as more and higher concrete walls and soil embankments around rivers. But this may no longer be the best approach in the face of the recurring intense weather patterns and associated flooding. The fundamental assumptions that underpin structural solutions are that the environmental pressures they are built to meet do not substantially change over time. Clearly, this is no longer the case. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/housebuilding-ban-on-floodplains-isnt-enough-flood-prone-communities-should-take-back-control-132468">Housebuilding ban on floodplains isn't enough – flood-prone communities should take back control</a>
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<p>The UK government’s announcement of greater investment in flood defences is welcome, but this does not necessarily mean building longer and higher walls. What is needed is an integrated approach to flood defence that goes beyond using only structural solutions. Now, in the first decades of the century, the UK is in a period of transition that presents the opportunity to adjust our flood defences to the requirements of what this century’s climate will bring. </p>
<h2>How Japan faced up to earthquakes</h2>
<p>In the years before the second world war, Japan faced the issue of building its resilience to earthquakes. Japan experiences on average at least one or two earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 to 7 or greater every year. These earthquakes used to kill many thousands of people, but the average death toll has significantly decreased and has fallen to a few tens of people in recent years (with exceptions, such as the 1995 Kobe earthquake, and the earthquake that caused the 2011 tsunami).</p>
<p>This has been achieved through a programme that combines technological development and significant public involvement. Japan holds annual and even monthly <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/35463098">earthquake drills in schools</a> and other <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/09/01/national/annual-quake-drills-take-nankai-twist/#.XmaUfKj7SUk">public and private sector organisations</a>. There is also earthquake education in schools and public information campaigns as well as nationwide earthquake warning messages <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/423288/cellular-technology-that-told-japan-an-earthquake-was-coming/">through mobile phones</a>. In earthquake or tsunami danger zones there are detailed signs to <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2013/10/21/reference/elevation-signs/">indicate areas at risk</a>. </p>
<p>These social approaches are pillars of Japan’s earthquake resilience programme, standing alongside the cutting-edge technological development of recent decades, such as <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13632460509350537">seismic base isolation and motion-absorbing technology</a>. </p>
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<p>The main outcome of Japan’s public education campaign has been that most people understand that while earthquakes cannot be prevented, their destructive impacts can be minimised, and that everyone has a role to play. This has been instrumental in bringing government and public together in building a more earthquake-resilient society. In fact, Japan has turned its massive challenge to an opportunity: protecting its economy and communities against earthquakes while becoming the leader in earthquake-mitigation technologies: state-of-the-art know-how that it exports to the world.</p>
<p>Many nations worldwide struggle with flooding. Along with the Netherlands, Britain has been a pioneer in flood defence infrastructure engineering. This is an opportunity for the UK to not only address its flooding problems properly at home, but also to build on its existing reputation and take a leading role worldwide in developing new flood defence technology.</p>
<h2>Facing up to floods at home</h2>
<p>To begin with, an information campaign is needed to inform the public of the new reality. Everyone should know that flooding is now a frequent risk – it may have been affordable to get flooded every 15 to 30 years in the past, but few can bear the expense of being flooded out of their home every few years as is possible now. </p>
<p>The public must be properly informed that it is not technically possible to achieve zero flooding – and that in order to protect larger, denser populations in towns and cities, it may be necessary to accept flooding in other areas. </p>
<p>Politicians and experts need to be honest with communities living in flood-prone areas that, given the current circumstances and the potential for the situation worsening in the future, there will need to be a <a href="https://theconversation.com/giant-sandscaping-plan-to-save-norfolk-coast-will-only-put-off-the-inevitable-121346">managed retreat</a> from areas deemed to too difficult or costly to protect.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/flooding-britains-coastal-towns-and-villages-face-a-design-challenge-to-cope-with-climate-emergency-117448">Flooding: Britain's coastal towns and villages face a design challenge to cope with climate emergency</a>
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<p>And people need to understand that pouring concrete everywhere is not the answer. Greater walls and hard surface areas serve only to guide rainwater into the river channel, which then subsequently bursts its banks. Instead, it would be better to strive to keep surfaces in their natural, permeable states through more widespread use of <a href="https://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/engineeringGeology/urbanGeoscience/SUDS/what.html">sustainable drainage systems</a>. </p>
<p>The storms that sweep across Europe form thousands of miles away in the Atlantic Ocean or in the deserts of North Africa – highlighting the importance of international cooperation to identify and coordinate actions to minimise the effects of global warming. At home, regular flood drills and flood education combined with flood signage in communities at risk are avenues that need to be pursued seriously. </p>
<p>In the medium and long term, these efforts may help everyone understand that flooding is not a rare occurrence nor a one-off problem to be solved, but a natural phenomenon to be lived with. Flooding cannot be prevented, but the way we approach it can bring relief, and opportunities, for our communities and economy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133137/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammad Heidarzadeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Japan took a fresh approach to ensuring their society was more resilient to the frequent earthquakes they experience. We could learn from its experience.Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Assistant Professor in Civil and Environmental Engineering, Brunel University LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1324682020-02-27T14:03:34Z2020-02-27T14:03:34ZHousebuilding ban on floodplains isn’t enough – flood-prone communities should take back control<p>February 2020 has brought more than its fair share of bad weather to the north of England, the Midlands and Wales. Shrewsbury, Bewdley and Telford swam in the Severn, while the Ouse invaded York. For some, the adage that it’s grim up north rang true.</p>
<p>The recent flooding is a reminder that all parts of the UK are vulnerable to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-risk-register-of-civil-emergencies-2017-edition">natural hazards</a>, and the costs aren’t just economic. Flood water can enter a building in minutes, but the impact on communities can last years. Flooded homes and businesses take months to clean up and dry out, and the <a href="https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-016-4000-2">long-term impact on the health</a> and relationships of those affected is often overlooked.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/get-used-to-flooding-climate-change-will-bring-more-of-it-23198">Climate change has made some types of floods</a> more likely, but past government policy has ensured that the ensuing crises are worse than they might otherwise have been. While there’s an urgent need for new homes, <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/2019/02/21/uk-homes-unfit-for-the-challenges-of-climate-change-ccc-says/">1.8 million people</a> currently live in areas at significant risk of flooding, and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/24/end-housebuilding-on-flood-plains-labour">homes are still being built on floodplains</a>.</p>
<p>The chief executive of the Environment Agency, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defusing-the-weather-bomb-the-future-of-flood-defence">Sir James Bevan, argued</a> that if we must <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129572-800-uk-must-abandon-or-adapt-in-face-of-floods/">build in the floodplain</a>, homes should be built with garages on the ground floor and living space upstairs, to ensure floods cause minimal damage. This might sound radical, but some of the oldest buildings along Britain’s rivers and coastline, such as millhouses and warehouses, have stone floors and steps up to first floor entrances. They were designed hundreds of years ago to ensure their occupants could ride out intermittent flooding. </p>
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<span class="caption">Old millhouses – like this building in the US – are often raised above ground level, in anticipation of flooding.</span>
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<p>Climate change may force countries, such as the UK, to adopt radical practices from parts of the world that flood more frequently, such as houses that are <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/a-floating-house-to-resist-the-floods-of-climate-change">designed to float when floods come</a>, rising on stilts as the water rises. It’s an idea that is familiar to those living in stilt houses beside the Amazon river, and it’s also found <a href="https://www.thenational.scot/news/14859658.how-floating-dutch-homes-simply-rise-with-the-floodwater/">favour in the Netherlands</a>.</p>
<p>For those who already live on the floodplain, there are <a href="http://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=659cb024-a5d5-4004-acbf-1d9236228817">less dramatic but important adaptations</a> that can be made. Internally reinforced, mechanically sealable flood doors can be installed to keep water out. Carpets and wooden floorboards that soak up dirty flood waters can be swapped for waterproof concrete and stone-slab floors. Electrical sockets can be raised and non-return valves can be <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-people-in-a-flooded-british-town-were-told-to-stop-flushing-the-toilet-119115">fitted to toilets to stop sewage filling homes</a> when it floods.</p>
<h2>Communities that can weather floods</h2>
<p>Making Britain more resilient to floods is not just a task for individuals. The government now has an opportunity to prove its <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-boris-johnsons-promise-to-revitalise-the-north-could-come-back-to-haunt-him-129933">long-term commitment to the north of England</a> in particular, by creating detailed plans to increase resilience to floods. Backing the HS2 railway and moving the House of Lords out of London might grab headlines, but making sure the region is resilient in the face of future flooding requires less glamorous investment.</p>
<p>It’s equally important that money isn’t just thrown at the areas that were flooded last – or which might have voted Conservative in the last election. Every flooded community, no matter where they are in the country, deserves support, and managing flood risk is about more than just installing large flood defences or water-proofing homes. A <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/letter-flood-and-coastal-resilience-standards/">long-term approach requires policies</a> that link the necessary changes in land use, agriculture, housing and development.</p>
<p>Part of this could give communities the power to take control of their own destiny by creating regional flood forums, giving residents’ groups a say in how communities prepare for and respond to floods. Too many people are left with the impression that the government, or other distant authorities, can be trusted with sole responsibility for preventing flooding, and are then left feeling powerless and abandoned when floods happen. </p>
<p>It’s essential that everyone who lives in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/21/dams-wellies-and-sleepless-nights-yorkshire-calder-valley-flooding">or moves to an area</a> at risk of flooding <a href="https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/long-term-flood-risk">knows that the risk of flooding is real</a>. It’s difficult to imagine that your home could be flooded if you have never seen water lapping at your front door or rising up your kitchen cabinets. This is especially true for those living in properties that don’t immediately border running water. </p>
<p>But the historical record tells us that even before modern climate change, big floods have always happened. And floods are like buses, sometimes nothing happens for ages and then several come, one after the other. Flood risk maps <a href="https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/long-term-flood-risk">exist</a>, but the message is not getting through to those who need them. </p>
<p>Perhaps flood risk should come to be seen like earthquake risk zones in other countries. It would mean public signs clearly positioned to show that you are in a flood zone and that there is danger to life, health and property. It would ensure that strong building regulations are adhered to and school lessons are specifically devoted to knowing how to keep people safe. </p>
<p>We certainly need new ideas for connecting people with the realities of living with climate change. Ensuring that everyone can find out about their flood risk, shape decision-making on land management, and adapt their homes accordingly could empower people to prepare for the floods that will inevitably come.</p>
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1132468">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132468/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency on flood risk and flood forecasting. She works with local flood groups and advises local and national government and humanitarian agencies on flood emergencies. Her flood research is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the European Commission's Horizon 2020 programme.</span></em></p>Residents need the necessary support to adapt their homes and make collective decisions about flood prevention.Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1268482019-11-15T16:01:20Z2019-11-15T16:01:20ZFlood survivors should be given proper support – instead they’re told to get ‘resilient’<p>After <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50372839">severe flooding in the North of England</a>, many affected residents have been left feeling <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/09/flood-waters-receding-but-anger-rises-in-weary-doncaster">let down and left behind</a> by the systems in place to protect them. <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-017-1216-3">Our research suggests</a> that they, and many other communities affected by flooding in the past, have good reason to feel this way.</p>
<p>Often, the effects of flooding are not fair – and government policy isn’t helping. Current methods of modelling, managing and protecting against flood risk are socially blind, and end up disadvantaging the people and places that are most vulnerable.</p>
<p>In recent years, flood management policy across the world has <a href="https://environmentagency.blog.gov.uk/2017/06/27/flood-risk-management-10-years-on-a-journey-of-high-and-low-tech-improvements/">focused investment on technology</a> to better assess which areas are at risk of flooding, and what the damage could be. This technical expertise can then be used to inform vulnerable people, guide development, and determine priority areas for flood defences.</p>
<p>Undoubtedly, innovation in flood risk assessments over the last two decades has aided decision-making for central government agencies and local authorities. We have a much better, if still far from perfect, understanding of the movement of water through catchments, urban drainage systems, streets and buildings.</p>
<p>But this approach has limitations. For a start, flood maps tend to be static snapshots that are only periodically updated. In reality, risk can change quickly. As the climate crisis <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-times-more-people-at-risk-from-yearly-coastal-flooding-than-previously-thought-new-research-125920">increases the frequency and severity of flooding</a>, and urbanisation reduces the land’s capacity to absorb water, people may be surprised to learn that houses they bought many years ago are now at risk – not because they moved to a flood-prone area, but because the flood zone moved to them.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-times-more-people-at-risk-from-yearly-coastal-flooding-than-previously-thought-new-research-125920">Three times more people at risk from yearly coastal flooding than previously thought – new research</a>
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<p>More importantly, these technical models typically treat flood-prone areas as uniform entities that are simplistically labelled as at high, medium, or low risk. In turn, government policy across Europe and beyond increasingly expects people at risk to assume more responsibility for managing it, usually referring to this as becoming <a href="https://environmentagency.blog.gov.uk/2016/11/11/make-your-home-more-flood-resilient/">resilient</a>. For example, the UK government encourages the public to check their postcode on <a href="https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/long-term-flood-risk/map">simplified versions of flood maps</a>, to inform choices on insurance or house purchases, increase their awareness of risk, and be prepared if in a higher-risk area.</p>
<p>But people have very different capacities to make use of this information. For example, those with lower incomes may be less able to protect, repair or <a href="https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/social-justice-and-future-flood-insurance">insure their properties</a>, meaning they feel the effects of flooding much more acutely.</p>
<p>Some people are also more vulnerable than others in ways that may not be immediately obvious. Extreme weather events are likely to have a greater effect on older people and those with health problems. Those with limited mobility are <a href="https://www.ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/age-uk/documents/reports-and-publications/reports-and-briefings/active-communities/rb_feb16_older_people_and_power_loss_floods_and_storms.pdf">less able to evacuate</a> from a flooded area or move possessions away in expectation of a flood.</p>
<p>More broadly, the varying economic health of areas entrenches inequality in <a href="https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/targeting-flood-investment-and-policy-minimise-flood-disadvantage">vulnerability to flooding</a>. Put simply, people from more deprived areas that are prone to flooding may not only be more vulnerable to its effects, but are often less able to lobby for flood defences or media attention than those in wealthier areas. They also have fewer means to leave flood prone areas for a safer place to live.</p>
<p>The often overlooked yet troubling irony is that globally it is those who have contributed least to the causes of flooding and have the least capacity to adapt that are most at risk. And of course, flooding rarely happens just once in an area – people and places can be trapped in <a href="https://theconversation.com/hurricanes-flood-insurance-and-the-dangers-of-business-as-usual-83602">cycles of flooding</a>, further exacerbating inequality and disadvantage.</p>
<h2>‘Just’ defences</h2>
<p>Decisions about where to invest in flood defences are <a href="https://theconversation.com/flood-defences-simply-arent-good-enough-heres-what-needs-to-be-done-126781">also problematic</a>. They are usually based on simple cost-benefit analyses, which means that assessments of how many people might be protected and the value of protected assets rule decision-making processes.</p>
<p>Many analyses have some degree of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-appraisal-guidance">social weighting</a> to ensure that wealthy areas with higher house prices or areas with larger populations do not monopolise finite budgets. But only rarely are more fine-grained social circumstances, such as people’s ability to escape from rising water and their capacity to deal with the consequences of a flood, integrated into decision-making.</p>
<p>In response, flood risk management researchers and professionals increasingly argue for more engagement and collaboration with those at <a href="https://nationalfloodforum.org.uk/working-together/communities/what-is-a-flood-action-group/">risk</a>. But even here, there is a risk that the simple provision of more opportunities to participate could favour those with resources, expertise and time – the very same people who are arguably already well represented in the processes of public decision-making.</p>
<p>That is not to criticise vocal and well organised community participation. Such participation is essential and must be supported. But to truly realise social and environmental justice and prevent communities suffering in silence, targeted outreach is needed. This could include recruiting independent support workers who can be community advocates for vulnerable neighbourhoods, and helping establish local <a href="https://thefloodhub.co.uk/community/">flood action groups</a> to liaise between authorities and the wider <a href="https://eyeoncalderdale.com/">public</a>.</p>
<h2>Fairer flooding</h2>
<p>There are ways to make flooding fairer. Public authorities sit on a vast wealth of social, economic and demographic data that should be fully integrated with flood risk management decision-making, and regularly updated. The mapping tools to overlay these data with flood maps already <a href="https://www.climatejust.org.uk/">exist</a>, but there is concern that these are not being widely used.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-flooding-is-still-so-difficult-to-predict-and-prepare-for-126866">Why flooding is still so difficult to predict and prepare for</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Flood risk managers and emergency first responders should also do more to understand these nuances. They could, for example, expand recent efforts to help communities develop their own <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/292939/LIT_5286_b9ff43.pdf">specific flood response plans</a>, use their local knowledge to identify the most vulnerable people, and determine ahead of time how they can be supported when flood warnings are issued.</p>
<p>Finally, we need to recognise that fairness in flooding is linked to broader economic and social conditions. Austerity politics and funding cuts to local services can severely compromise people’s ability to deal with flooding.</p>
<p>In the UK, spending on flood defences has <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-does-flood-defence-spending-unfairly-favour-the-south-east-11859986">fallen well shy of the pre-austerity trend</a> – and this is sure to have impacted residents in the North of England. Our ongoing work shows that many communities affected by flooding feel ignored long before rising waters destroy their homes, businesses and neighbourhoods.</p>
<p>Those most vulnerable to flooding must be given the resources to respond to it, rather than being told that it’s their responsibility to get resilient. This support is not only needed before and during flooding events, but also for the longer-term effects that are often only apparent weeks and months after waters have subsided. Just as our assessment of flood risk is getting more sophisticated, so must our management of it.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1126848">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126848/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Current policy to manage and protect people from flooding disadvantages those who are most vulnerable.Paul O'Hare, Lecturer in Human Geography and Urban Development, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityIain White, Professor of Environmental Planning, University of WaikatoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1266592019-11-11T17:03:12Z2019-11-11T17:03:12ZRivers are changing all the time, and it affects their capacity to contain floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301112/original/file-20191111-194656-1b0knrl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Houses alongside the Saigon river in Vietnam.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/fAYHQEopGPA">Tony La Hoang/Unsplash</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50372839">The rainfall</a> that has inundated the North of England is the <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/environment/uk-flooding-news-latest-worst-europe-climate-change-494940">latest in a long line</a> of flood events that are becoming <a href="https://theconversation.com/heatwaves-and-flash-floods-yes-this-is-britains-new-normal-121351">the country’s new normal</a>. Indeed, across the world, flooding is expected to become <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/">more frequent and more extreme</a> as the planet heats up.</p>
<p>Building robust flood defences and modelling vulnerable areas is crucial if we are to avoid loss of life and livelihoods from these devastating weather events. But <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-48782-1">our new research</a> reveals that the capacity of rivers to keep water flowing within their banks can change quickly – and in failing to acknowledge this, some flood models and defences may be under-equipped to deal with the consequences when they do.</p>
<p>Many assume that flooding is due to <a href="https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c047p123.pdf">heavy rainfall</a>. This is true, but only part of the explanation. Floods also occur when the amount of water running off the land exceeds the capacity of rivers to carry that flow – as was the case when the River Don breached flood defences in the Sheffield area recently. So, floods are partly caused by the amount of rain falling, partly by the moisture that is already in the ground, and partly <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014GL062482">by the capacity of rivers to contain water</a> within their channels.</p>
<p>This means that if the capacities of river channels change, then two identical rainfall events falling on similarly wet ground can cause flooding of very different severity.</p>
<p>Most rivers are forever changing. They are shaped by the sediments and water they carry. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X06002509">Humans have modified</a> most of the world’s rivers in some way. In some cases this is through direct influence, such as dam construction or river engineering. Other influences are indirect – building on nearby land reduces the capacity of ground to absorb water, agriculture draws water from rivers, and deforestation leaves more water to flow elsewhere.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301114/original/file-20191111-194650-rzzprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301114/original/file-20191111-194650-rzzprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301114/original/file-20191111-194650-rzzprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301114/original/file-20191111-194650-rzzprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301114/original/file-20191111-194650-rzzprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301114/original/file-20191111-194650-rzzprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301114/original/file-20191111-194650-rzzprb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">After the River Don burst its banks in places, multiple roads in urban centres such as Rotherham flooded.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/rotherham-uk-november-8-2019-river-1553828930?studio=1">DnG Photography/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Rivers respond to changes in climate as well. During drier periods, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/wat2.1085">less water flows through river systems</a>. This means that there is often less energy to move the sediments at their beds, so riverbed levels may progressively rise, decreasing the capacity of the river. Abundant plant growth within the channel can also reduce a river channel’s capacity by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1999)125:5(443)">slowing the flow</a>.</p>
<p>But it is not always easy to predict how rivers will change. Extreme shifts in channel shape and capacity can occur very rapidly. After a recent flash flood in Spain, one river rose almost <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38537-3">a metre</a> as huge volumes of sediment from upstream were displaced and dumped further along. In tropical river systems, which tend to carry more sediment than temperate rivers, these changes can be <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X19300212">several metres</a>.</p>
<h2>Uncertain risk</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, such changes are typically ignored by flood engineers and modellers, who generally treat the channel as a fixed feature. If rivers actually change their capacity in space and time, then estimates of flood probability may be incorrect, putting people and property at risk.</p>
<p>Motivated by these concerns, we investigated the pace at which channel changes occur, and to what extent these alterations might be driven by climate. We began with a simple conceptual model: climate controls rainfall, rainfall affects river flow, and river flow shapes channel capacity. </p>
<p>Direct observations of this link were lacking in river systems over short timescales. So, we took 10,000 measurements of the capacity of 67 rivers in the US, covering a period of nearly 70 years. We also gathered rainfall and river flow data, to assess how climatic changes affected the capacity of the rivers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-48782-1">We discovered</a> that temporary shifts in river capacity, lasting years to decades, were far more frequent than had previously been assumed. Overall, river capacity tends to increase during periods that are wetter than average due to greater erosion of river channels, and decrease in drier periods.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300908/original/file-20191108-194661-1294clx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300908/original/file-20191108-194661-1294clx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300908/original/file-20191108-194661-1294clx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300908/original/file-20191108-194661-1294clx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300908/original/file-20191108-194661-1294clx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300908/original/file-20191108-194661-1294clx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300908/original/file-20191108-194661-1294clx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The flood-prone Ganges river is a lifeline to millions who live along its course.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ganges-river-flood-water-premises-near-1516489166">Joachim Bago/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also found that multi-year climate cycles that affect regional precipitation patterns – such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation – can cause channel capacity to expand and contract too, perhaps on a global scale. Armed with this knowledge, we may eventually be able to predict how the capacity of rivers changes, and hence better understand flood risk.</p>
<p>In temperate regions such as the UK, where rivers tend to be vegetated, heavily engineered and relatively stable, delicate changes in channel capacity are hard to detect and unlikely to be life threatening. However, in river systems that carry high volumes of sediment, or in parts of the world where rainfall varies considerably during the year, sudden reductions in river capacity may dramatically increase flood risk for nearby settlements. For example, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0037073812001510">Ganges-Brahmaputra</a> river in India and Bangladesh falls under this category. Its capacity is already changing, and its floodplains are some of most densely populated in the world.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, we still have very poor understanding of the nature and causes of channel capacity changes in most regions – and it is the most at-risk places that tend to have the least data. To better understand what’s happening, we need to use satellite imagery to monitor how fast rivers are responding to changes in the climate. What we can’t yet do though is monitor river adjustment in real time. Developing technologies that do this would greatly improve our understanding of how changes in river shape and capacity affect flood risk across the world. </p>
<p>Until this information becomes apparent, flood models and defence structures should build this uncertain risk into their designs. Doing so could make all the difference for those living in vulnerable areas.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1126659">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126659/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louise Slater receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). She is affiliated with the British Society for Geomorphology (BSG), American Geophysical Union (AGU) and European Geosciences Union (EGU).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Abdou Khouakhi and Robert Wilby do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In failing to acknowledge that the capacity of rivers can change quickly, some flood models and defences may not be equipped to deal with the consequences when they do.Louise Slater, Associate Professor in Physical Geography, University of OxfordAbdou Khouakhi, Research Associate, Climate and Weather Data Analysis, Loughborough UniversityRobert Wilby, Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1174482019-07-15T09:25:41Z2019-07-15T09:25:41ZFlooding: Britain’s coastal towns and villages face a design challenge to cope with climate emergency<p>As an island nation, Britain has vulnerable communities that must be prepared for the impact of the climate emergency. And while much has been said about homes at risk from the sea in coastal regions, or those inland subject to river flooding, the UK Committee on Climate Change’s new <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-preparing-for-climate-change-2019-progress-report-to-parliament/#outline">progress report</a> for 2019 has laid bare the challenge facing them.</p>
<p>In 2018, Hemsby on the coast of Norfolk in the east of England saw <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-43448270">several homes dramatically lost</a> after storm surges caused metres of the sandy cliff edge to collapse. Over the last decade, major storms left substantial areas of England badly flooded for weeks or months, such as in 2007, 2009, 2012, and the winters of 2013-14 and 2015-16. The Environment Agency has said that the UK <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/09/climate-crisis-flooding-threat-may-force-uk-towns-to-be-abandoned">faces having to abandon areas</a> rather than continue to defend them with the ever higher and stronger flood defences that would be necessary. </p>
<p>According to the committee’s <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-change/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/">climate change risk assessment</a> it is almost certain that England will have to adapt to at least one metre of sea level rise. Modelling studies have shown that flooding <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378383917305653">increases exponentially with rising sea levels</a>. So for coastal areas subject to flooding it is not sufficient to increase the height of sea walls in line with sea level rise.</p>
<p>The assessment predicts that up to 1.5m properties (including 1.2m residential homes) may be located in areas with an annual flood risk of once in 200 years or more by the 2080s. Around 8,900 properties are located in areas at risk from coastal erosion, this may increase to over 100,000 properties by the 2080s. While coastal erosion affects fewer properties than flooding, the impact is more drastic due to the inevitable and irrecoverable loss of land to the sea. </p>
<p>Significant increases in coastal flood risk are projected to occur as early as the 2020s due to increases in storm frequency. According to the committee’s <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sayers-for-the-asc-projections-of-future-flood-risk-in-the-uk/">projections</a> the number of residential properties exposed to flooding more frequently than once every 75 years (on average) is predicted to increase 20% by the 2020s under the scenario which gives a 4°C rise in global temperatures by the 2080s.</p>
<p>However, the Committee on Climate Change’s latest report on dealing with these issues scores work on alleviating surface water flooding, and work on ensuring new building development is properly designed to manage flooding, both firmly in the “red” of the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/progress-in-preparing-for-climate-change-2019-progress-report-to-parliament/#outline">red-amber-green traffic light system</a> indicating readiness. Other aspects of flood protection fare only slightly better, with river and coastal development flood protection and alleviation and flood recovery in general marked as “amber”.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275419/original/file-20190520-69178-1w4v6y3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275419/original/file-20190520-69178-1w4v6y3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275419/original/file-20190520-69178-1w4v6y3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275419/original/file-20190520-69178-1w4v6y3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275419/original/file-20190520-69178-1w4v6y3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275419/original/file-20190520-69178-1w4v6y3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/275419/original/file-20190520-69178-1w4v6y3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Number of properties (residential and non-residential) potentially affected by a future once every 200 years coastal surge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">HR Wallingford</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the Netherlands, for centuries vulnerable to floods due to its low-lying land, a number of new approaches to water management have been adopted over the years in an effort to live with water rather than to fight it. Schemes range from flood-proof homes, including floating homes, to the <a href="https://www.ruimtevoorderivier.nl/english/">Room for the River</a> programme which entails strategies for planned evacuations, temporary relocation of farmers and villagers, and strategic flooding of polders (reclaimed areas separated by drainage dykes).</p>
<p>The UK has its own approaches to manage increased flood risk, and is developing new approaches in view of the dire predictions by climate change experts under scenarios of both 2°C and 4°C global temperature rise. River flooding and coastal flooding (from waterway or coastal inundation), as well as surface water and groundwater flooding (from rain and storms and insufficient drainage), were categorised as the most significant sources of risk in the UK now and in the future. </p>
<h2>Coastlines changed</h2>
<p>The committee’s projection of flood risk has identified the most <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/sayers-for-the-asc-projections-of-future-flood-risk-in-the-uk/">cost-effective, engineering-based measures to reduce flooding</a> as improving defences, managed realignment of the coast, catchment area management, and urban runoff management through sustainable drainage systems. In this case, “realignment” of the coast entails not only the natural changes to the physical coastline as a result of climate change, but also the decision to abandon or relocate entire settlements. This can have a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/this-is-a-wake-up-call-the-villagers-who-could-be-britains-first-climate-refugees">significant personal and financial impact</a> on those residents affected.</p>
<p>While the abandonment of properties in places like Happisburgh and Hemsby in Norfolk due to coastal erosion is well known, we can see from the map above that many other coastal areas around the Humber, Mersey, Severn and Thames estuaries are at risk. Those affected, and also key infrastructure assets, will need to be evaluated to ascertain whether they should be included in this process of coastal realignment. The area around the Thames in southern England is likely to be classed as worth protecting due to the high numbers of people living there, for example. In addition, a number of low-lying inland plains will also be lost – many of which were selected for housing development only a few decades ago.</p>
<p>While planning and building regulations can reduce flood risk to new-build properties within affected areas, anticipated population growth means that there is increasing pressure to build on floodplains. According to Emma Howard Boyd, Chair of the Environment Agency, the number of properties built on floodplains will double over the next 50 years, creating further flood risk problems.</p>
<p>The UK has a significant number of key industries and infrastructure at the coast – for example power stations, petrochemical plants, steel industries and oil and gas infrastructure. To tackle the associated design challenges for housing, business and industries appropriate funding and having a well-skilled engineering force will be key. </p>
<p>In view of the increasing impact of climate change we need to urgently build our resilience to flooding. Flood resilience includes knowing what the risks are and where. We need flexible engineering solutions, including natural flood risk management, as well as ways to help society adapt. We need to make sure we have the right people with the right skills at all levels to address related socio-economic issues, including hard decisions on what to fight to keep, and what can be lost.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117448/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Carola Koenig is a Member of the Institute of Mechanical Engineers and a Charted Engineer.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Collins is a Fellow of the Geological Society of London, Fellow of the Royal Geographical Society, and graduate member of the Institution of Civil Engineers.</span></em></p>Planning for the growing risks of flooding that threatens the UK’s cities, towns and villages is underway, but progress is too slow.Carola Koenig, Senior Lecturer in Engineering, Flood and Coastal Engineering Programme Lead, Brunel University LondonPhilip Collins, Senior Lecturer in Geology & Geotechnical Engineering, Vice Dean (Education), Brunel University LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1161312019-04-28T16:32:38Z2019-04-28T16:32:38ZThe Doug Ford doctrine: Short-term gain for long-term pain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271238/original/file-20190427-194623-1mbtsze.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ontario Premier Doug Ford laughs as Finance Minister Vic Fedeli presents the 2019 budget at the legislature in Toronto in April 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Although less than a year in office, Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government has already demonstrated a remarkable talent for pursuing short-term gains at the expense of serious long-term costs and risks.</p>
<p>The pattern was set early. The Ford government’s first action was <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-ending-cap-and-trade-1.4731954">to terminate</a> the province’s cap-and-trade carbon pricing system. That move the cost the province billions in revenue needed to prepare the province for the already evident impacts of climate change, and to reduce the province’s emissions and prevent even more serious damage.</p>
<p>In exchange, consumers got a reduction of a few cents per litre on gasoline prices — far less than gas prices fluctuate over a typical weekend.</p>
<p>These kinds of moves are coming to be a defining feature of the Ford government. In a world where economies are increasingly defined in terms of knowledge and information services, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2019/03/15/ford-government-announces-hikes-to-high-school-class-sizes-but-no-changes-to-kindergarten.html">cuts to secondary</a> and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/politics/provincial/2019/01/16/ford-governments-tuition-cut-to-cost-universities-360-million-and-colleges-80-million.html">post-secondary</a> education run significant risks undermining the province’s long-term economic prospects. </p>
<p>The major cuts in funding to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ontario-legal-aid-funding-cut-1.5095058">legal aid</a> announced in the province’s recent budget will also exacerbate backlogs in the courts as more people, particularly those with low incomes, will find themselves without representation. </p>
<p>Cuts in funding to conservation authorities for <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-flooding-cuts-conservation-1.5105897">flood protection</a> seem to contradict the words of the government’s own November 2018 “made in Ontario” <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/made-in-ontario-environment-plan">environment plan</a>, which acknowledged of the impacts of climate change, including increased risks of flooding.</p>
<h2>Long-term benefits</h2>
<p>Yet even in this context, two recent decisions stand out as particularly significant examples of this pattern, the first related to energy conservation, and the second to the delivery of front-line public health programming. Both these areas are characterized by very high ratios of long-term benefits to immediate costs, and therefore should appeal to a government focused on value for money and “respect or taxpayers.”</p>
<p><a href="https://eco.auditor.on.ca/our-reports/energy/">Energy conservation</a> — in the form of such things as replacing older inefficient, lighting, appliances, heating and air conditioning systems with newer models that provide the same services while using far less energy — is widely acknowledged as the cheapest and most efficient way of meeting energy needs and reducing consumers’ bills. </p>
<p>Conservation measures can also play a major role in managing peaks in electricity demand and stabilizing the grid. The Ford government seemed to acknowledge much of this in its <a href="https://www.ontario.ca/page/made-in-ontario-environment-plan">environment plan</a>, which highlighted the benefits of energy conservation.</p>
<p>Ontario’s 2014 <a href="https://cms.powerauthority.on.ca/opa-conservation/conservation-first-framework-2015-2020">Conservation First Framework</a> had established a province-wide structure for conservation efforts. It established funding and inventive mechanisms, conservation targets at the provincial level and for Hydro One and local electricity utilities, and programming targeted at sectors ranging from low-income households to large industry. The framework was widely regarded as <a href="https://eco.auditor.on.ca/our-reports/energy/">highly effective</a>.</p>
<p>Virtually all of this was eliminated by the Ford government in March, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ontario-pulls-the-plug-on-electricity-conservation-programs/">when the province terminated</a> its entire framework for electricity conservation. </p>
<p>Energy conservation measures, particularly for buildings, that had also been central components of the provincial climate change strategy <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2018/06/20/green-ontario-cancellation-leaves-homeowners-industry-scrambling.html">ended with the elimination of the cap-and-trade system</a> as soon as Ford took office.</p>
<p>All that remains of the province’s once comprehensive strategy are some programs for industry and the low-income sector. Utility-provided programming related to natural gas remains intact for now, although there is no certainty regarding its long-term role. The short-term gain from all of this will amount to less than $10 per person per year.</p>
<h2>Electricity shortage looming</h2>
<p>While province has a <a href="http://www.ieso.ca/Power-Data/Supply-Overview/Transmission-Connected-Generation">surplus of electricity</a> for now, that situation is going to change significantly over the next few years with the looming and <a href="https://www.alternativesjournal.ca/community/blogs/renewable-energy/opinion-playing-politics-pickering-nuclear-no-one%E2%80%99s-best-interest">dangerously overdue</a> retirement of the Pickering nuclear plant, and with reactors at the Darlington and Bruce facilities coming off-line for refurbishment. </p>
<p>Conservation would be the least costly and lowest impact option to fill these gaps, yet the province has just eliminated much of the foundation of experience and capacity needed to respond to these emerging needs. Electricity costs can only rise as a result.</p>
<h2>Short-changing public health</h2>
<p>While there was a brief reference to moving energy conservation off electricity rates in the <a href="https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people">2018 Progressive Conservative platform</a>, there was no mention of cutting funding to local public health programming. That changed dramatically with the Ford government’s first budget. </p>
<p>The budget included a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/association-public-health-agencies-ontario-cut-spending-units-1.5099787">$200 million cut</a> in funding for programs delivered by local public health units as part of a proposed restructuring and consolidation of the units. </p>
<p>In the case of the city of Toronto, this will amount to a withdrawal of <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-doug-fords-public-health-cuts-will-come-back-to-haunt-us/">50 per cent</a> of provincial funding. These cuts will go directly to front-line public health services — vaccination programs, the management of infectious diseases, health inspections of restaurants and food vendors and drinking water safety. </p>
<p>Local <a href="https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/04/18/1b-cut-to-toronto-public-health-called-cruel-and-short-sighted/">medical officers of health</a> have pointed out that these cuts are likely to “have significant negative impacts on the health of residents.” The chair of the Toronto Board of Health has been more direct, stating that <a href="https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/people-will-die-toronto-public-health-will-lose-1-billion-over-decade-due-to-pc-cuts-cressy-says">“people will die”</a> as a result of the cuts.</p>
<h2>Remembering Walkerton</h2>
<p>Less direct cuts to public health services and oversight were implicated as <a href="http://www.archives.gov.on.ca/en/e_records/walkerton/report1/index.html">contributing factors</a> to the May 2000 Walkerton drinking water contamination tragedy, in which seven died and nearly 3,000 were made seriously ill. The Ford government’s moves are more direct, affecting front-line delivery of public health services. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271239/original/file-20190427-194612-nmb7v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271239/original/file-20190427-194612-nmb7v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271239/original/file-20190427-194612-nmb7v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271239/original/file-20190427-194612-nmb7v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271239/original/file-20190427-194612-nmb7v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271239/original/file-20190427-194612-nmb7v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271239/original/file-20190427-194612-nmb7v1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A five-year-old girl lies with her teddy bear as she is taken to an evacuation helicopter in Walkerton, Ont., in May 2000. Public health cuts played a role in the tainted water scandal in the small farming town.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(CP PHOTO/Kevin Frayer)</span></span>
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<p>It’s difficult to imagine a more short-sighted choice in a time marked by re-emergence of serious infectious diseases, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health-and-fitness/article-what-is-measles-and-why-is-it-making-a-comeback-a-guide/">like measles</a>, that were thought to be virtually eradicated in Canada.</p>
<p>Both energy conservation and public health services suffer from the relative invisibility of their benefits — they are about avoiding costs and preventing bad outcomes. This may partially explain why they were targeted by the Ford government. At the same time, both sets of decisions seem to demonstrate a remarkable incapacity to think or recognize benefits beyond the shortest of terms.</p>
<p>The government’s moves are consistent with an apparent emerging Ford doctrine of short-term gain for long-term pain. That doctrine carries with it major risks of embedding long-term structural costs for the province and its taxpayers, while undermining their ability to deal with the economic, social, environmental and health consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council and the George Cedric Metcalf Foundation. </span></em></p>There’s an apparent emerging Doug Ford doctrine in Ontario of short-term gain for long-term pain. It threatens to embed long-term structural costs for the province and its taxpayers.Mark Winfield, Professor of Environmental Studies, York University, CanadaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1126072019-03-03T19:05:47Z2019-03-03T19:05:47ZTownsville floods show cities that don’t adapt to risks face disaster<p>A flood-ravaged Townsville has captured public attention, highlighting the vulnerability of many of our cities to flooding. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/queensland-floods-special-climate-statement/10816184">extraordinary amount of rain</a> is just one aspect of the disaster in Queensland’s third-biggest city. The flooding, increasing urban density, the management of the Ross River Dam, and the difficulties of dealing with byzantine insurance regulations have left the community with many questions about their future. </p>
<p>These questions won’t be resolved until we enhance the resilience of cities and communities against flooding. Adaptation needs to become an integral part of living with the extremes of the Australian environment. I discuss how to design and create resilient urban landscapes later in this article.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-floods-are-so-huge-the-only-way-to-track-them-is-from-space-111083">Queensland's floods are so huge the only way to track them is from space</a>
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<h2>Flood risk and insurance</h2>
<p>Another issue that affects many households and businesses is the relationship between insurance claims and <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/63766">1-in-100-year flood event overlay maps</a>. Projected rises in flood risks under climate change have led to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/20/townsville-homes-may-become-uninsurable-due-to-flooding-from-climate-change">concerns that parts of Townsville and other cities will become “uninsurable”</a> should the costs of cover become prohibitive for property owners. </p>
<p>Council flood data <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/63766">used for urban planning and land-use strategies</a> is also used by insurers to assess the flood risk to individual properties. Insurers then price the risk accordingly. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-in-resilience-what-city-planners-can-learn-from-hobarts-floods-96529">Lessons in resilience: what city planners can learn from Hobart's floods</a>
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<p>However, in extraordinary circumstances, when the flooded land is actually larger than the area marked by the flood overlay map, complications emerge. In fact, that part of the community living outside the map’s boundaries is considered flood-free. Thus, those pockets of the community may have chosen not to have flood insurance and not have emergency plans, which leaves them even worse off after floods. This is happening in Townsville. </p>
<p>Yet this is nothing new. Many people experienced very similar circumstances in 2011. Flood waters covered as much land as Germany and France combined. Several communities were left on their knees. </p>
<p>Notwithstanding the prompt and vast response of the federal government and Queensland’s state authorities, a few years later Townsville is going through something alarmingly similar.</p>
<h2>Adaptation to create resilient cities</h2>
<p>To find a solution, we need to rethink how to implement the <a href="https://www.disaster.qld.gov.au/dmg/Prevention/Pages/3-5.aspx">Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework</a>. That is no easy task. However, it starts with shifting the perspective on what is considered a risk – in this case, a flooding event. </p>
<p>Floods, per se, are not a natural disaster. Floods are part of the natural context of Queensland as can be seen below, for instance, in the <a href="https://www.qhatlas.com.au/content/channel-country">Channel Country</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Floods are part of the Australian landscape. Here trees mark the seasonal riverbeds in the Queensland outback between Cloncurry and Mount Isa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cecilia Bischeri</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>The concept of adaptation as a built-in requirement of living in this environment then becomes pivotal. In designing and developing future-ready cities, we must aim to build resilient communities. </p>
<p>This is the ambitious project I am working on. It involves different figures and expertise with a shared vision and the support of government administrations that are willing to invest in a future beyond their elected term of office.</p>
<h2>Ideas for Gold Coast Resilientscape</h2>
<p>I live and work in the City of Gold Coast. Water is a fundamental part of the city’s character and beauty. In addition to the ocean, a complex system of waterways shapes a unique urban environment. However, this also exposes the city to a series of challenges, including flooding. </p>
<p>Last September, <a href="https://www.gchaveyoursay.com.au/industryhub/news_feed/updated-flood-overlay-maps">an updated flood overlay map</a> was made available to the community. The map takes into account the projections of a 0.8 metre increase in the sea level and 10% increases in storm tide intensity and rainfall intensity. </p>
<p>These factors are reflected in the 1-in-100-year flood overlay. It shows undoubtedly that the boundaries between land and water are changeable.</p>
<p>Building walls between the city and water as the primary flood protection strategy is not a solution. A rigid border can actually intensify the catastrophe. New Orleans and the <a href="https://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2006/01/">levee failures</a> during the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 provide a stark illustration of this. </p>
<p>Instead, what would happen and what would our cities look like if we designed green and public infrastructures that embody flooding as part of the natural context of our cities and territory?</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water-105844">Design for flooding: how cities can make room for water</a>
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<p>The current project, titled RESILIENTSCAPE: A Landscape for Gold Coast Urban Resilience, considers the role of architecture in enhancing the resilience of cities and communities against flooding. The proposal, in a nutshell, explores the possibilities that urban landscape design and implementation provide for resilience. </p>
<p>RESILIENTSCAPE focuses on the Nerang River catchment and the Gold Coast Regional Botanic Gardens, in the suburb of Benowa. The river and gardens were adopted as a case study for a broader strategy that aims to promote architectural solutions for a resilient City of Gold Coast. The project investigates the possibility of using existing green pockets along the Nerang River to store and retain excess water during floods. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Gold Coast Regional Botanic Gardens is one of the green areas along the Nerang River that could be used to store and retain flood water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_Coast_Regional_Botanic_Gardens_(08).jpg">Batsv/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>These green spaces, however, will not just serve as “water tanks”. If mindfully planned, the green spaces can double up as public parks and facilities. This would enrich the community’s social realm and maximise their use and return on investment. </p>
<p>The design of a landscape responsive to flooding can, by improving local urban resilience, dramatically change the impact of these events. </p>
<p>The goal of creating urban areas that are adaptive to an impermanent water landscape is the main driver of the project. <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/3068730/this-new-orleans-neighborhood-is-fighting-flooding-by-welcoming-it">New Orleans</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/disappearing-acts-reflecting-on-new-orleans-10-years-after-katrina-46834">Hurricane Katrina</a> and<a href="https://archpaper.com/2017/10/five-years-sandy-nyc-update-flood-resilience-zoning/"> New York</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/frankenstorm-sandy-wreaks-havoc-on-nyc-floods-cities-10420">Sandy</a> are <a href="https://www.nisconsortium.org/nisc-activities/neworleansfloodresexp/">investing heavily in this direction</a> and promoting <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/">international design competitions</a> and community participation to mould a more resilient future. Queensland, what are we waiting for?</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-dont-occur-randomly-so-why-do-we-still-plan-as-if-they-do-93371">Floods don't occur randomly, so why do we still plan as if they do?</a>
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<p><em>This article has been updated to clarify the use of flood data by insurers in assessing risk and the cost of cover.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cecilia Bischeri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid fears that parts of Townsville and other Australian cities might become “uninsurable”, making urban areas more resilient and adaptable to flooding is becoming more urgent.Cecilia Bischeri, Lecturer in Architecture, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1078372019-02-07T15:04:14Z2019-02-07T15:04:14ZRising seas: to keep humans safe, let nature shape the coast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257489/original/file-20190206-174851-qbi2of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coastal erosion at Skipsea, East Yorkshire, UK.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/coastal-erosion-skipsea-east-yorkshire-361092596?src=WcILkpEckD9OnkpZ7xkM7Q-1-0">Matthew J Thomas/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Even under the most conservative climate change scenarios, sea levels 30cm higher than at present seem <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/ukcp">all but certain</a> on much of the UK’s coast by the end of this century. Depending on emission scenarios, sea levels one metre higher than at present by 2100 are also plausible. </p>
<p>The knee-jerk reaction to sea level rise has traditionally been to maintain the shoreline’s position at all cost, by building new flood defence structures or upgrading old ones. <a href="https://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTCC/Resources/EACC_FinalSynthesisReport0803_2010.pdf">More than US$10 billion per year is already spent worldwide</a> on “grey” infrastructure such as concrete walls and levies to protect against coastal flooding. Equally large are the costs incurred when coastal defences fail.</p>
<p>The United Nations has <a href="https://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/52828">called on governments</a> to relocate public facilities and infrastructure from flood-prone areas, while the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/managing-the-coast-in-a-changing-climate/">UK Climate Change Committee</a> has urged the government to “set out how and when the hard choices that have to be made on the coast are going to happen”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257491/original/file-20190206-174870-13az1t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257491/original/file-20190206-174870-13az1t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257491/original/file-20190206-174870-13az1t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257491/original/file-20190206-174870-13az1t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257491/original/file-20190206-174870-13az1t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257491/original/file-20190206-174870-13az1t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257491/original/file-20190206-174870-13az1t6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">‘Grey’ sea defences cost a lot to build and maintain and the concrete they’re often made from is a source of atmospheric carbon.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sea-wall-steps-southwold-suffolk-england-184771949?src=6BPQ1lAsnT4akY47RUxXgA-1-0">Sue Chillingworth/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Letting nature decide</h2>
<p>The traditional approach of “grey” engineered sea defences locks society into ever increasing costs of replacement and maintenance. The alternatives are “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/natural-flood-management-part-of-the-nations-flood-resilience">nature-based solutions</a>” to coastal flooding and erosion, which work with natural processes to reduce flood risk and incorporate ecosystems into flood defence.</p>
<p>Rather than seeing the coast as a static line, these alternatives rethink the coastlines as zones with valuable habitats such as beaches, dunes and wetlands that act as carbon stores, places for recreation and natural buffers against the waves.</p>
<p>Schemes such as the <a href="https://www.britishwildlife.com/article/volume-26-number-6-page-382-389">Wild Coast Project</a> at Wallasea on the UK’s east coast have restored salt marshes where land had been reclaimed for agriculture years earlier. The tide and waves now regenerate salt marsh where it had been embanked and drained. If designed well, such schemes create new habitat which can <a href="https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/salt-marsh-plants-key-to-reducing-coastal-erosion-and-flooding">reduce the height and intensity of storm surges</a> and lower flood risk. </p>
<p>This technique for managing sea level rise can be thought of as allowing nature the space to create new coastal habitats within well-defined boundaries, akin to flooding a “sandpit”. In this sandpit, enough coastal space is vacated by humans to give natural processes room to respond to sea level rise by creating new wetlands further inland where once the terrain was dry.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257490/original/file-20190206-174851-1n40f5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257490/original/file-20190206-174851-1n40f5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257490/original/file-20190206-174851-1n40f5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257490/original/file-20190206-174851-1n40f5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257490/original/file-20190206-174851-1n40f5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257490/original/file-20190206-174851-1n40f5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257490/original/file-20190206-174851-1n40f5e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Coastal wetlands store carbon and act as natural buffers to storm surges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/ocean-salt-marsh-sea-grass-dock-645099616?src=2BCSqIIGMQMOdCSnJLrkQg-1-1">JuneJ/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>While such interventions do not enable full control over water levels and waves, they are designed to keep them at a safe distance from humans. Nature may be allowed to have some freedom to “play in the sandpit” created for it and people may not care what type of salt marsh or mudflat forms at Wallasea. But, as with “grey” infrastructure, humans ultimately build the sandpit by setting its boundaries. </p>
<p>The future of the world’s coastlines, however, is uncertain as the coast is inherently dynamic. Every wave and tide shapes the coast such that it determines how the next wave and tide can shape it. Though people may not notice it, the coast and the habitats which line it are never fixed and in fact change a great deal over a single human lifetime. People may create pockets of space for nature and think they are in control when in fact humans never were and it is doubtful they ever can be. </p>
<h2>Observing nature’s sandpit</h2>
<p>This is amply illustrated by the freshwater grazing marshes at Blakeney in Norfolk, on the UK’s east coast, where embankments were breached <a href="http://norfolkcoastnationaltrust.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-flooding-of-blakeney-freshes.html">during the 2013 storm surge</a>. A storm surge at sea forced salt water through an embankment into the Blakeney Freshes nature reserve, a unique freshwater wetland. Though unintended, salt water flooding of embanked areas like the Freshes can create a new ecosystem there and prevent flood waters from rising in adjacent areas, where people would have come to harm. </p>
<p>The Blakeney Freshes illustrate the importance of allowing sufficient space for nature to decide the boundaries of its “sandpit”. The more space given to it and the wider the buffer zone of coastal landforms, the lower the risk of flooding to areas that lie further inland. </p>
<p>As with weather forecasts, predicting how complex natural processes will interact at the coast is difficult – certainly over years and decades. It is time people stopped pretending that nature can be controlled at all, whether through “grey” or “green” engineering schemes. The best option is to watch and learn. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257512/original/file-20190206-174894-15ipi1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257512/original/file-20190206-174894-15ipi1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257512/original/file-20190206-174894-15ipi1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257512/original/file-20190206-174894-15ipi1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257512/original/file-20190206-174894-15ipi1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257512/original/file-20190206-174894-15ipi1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257512/original/file-20190206-174894-15ipi1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Satellite technology has made is possible to track coastal change from space.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/view-space-on-sundarbans-vast-forest-1017488386?src=7wF7EZGzyc_o-1SUQXtvPQ-1-0">Lavizzara/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The means for monitoring exist, with ever-improving measurement technology, data transmission and high-resolution satellite imagery, such as the <a href="https://www.copernicus.eu/en">European Commission’s Copernicus programme</a>.</p>
<p>Responding to sea level rise may be as simple as allowing space for the flow of water and sediment during extreme events. Society can do so by relinquishing the need to control the process and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/28/coastal-flooding-and-peat-bogs">restricting development near the coast</a>, creating areas that nature can “claim” with whatever habitat it wishes to “build” there.</p>
<p>As a salt marsh turns into a tidal flat, a freshwater field into a salty lagoon, there is the opportunity to stand back, watch and learn to better understand how and why those changes happen and how people can benefit from change rather than fight a losing battle to prevent it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/107837/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iris Möller has received research project funding under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union and the European Community's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme as well as the Natural Environment Research Council. She does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond her academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rising sea levels won’t be solved by trying to fix the coast in place. For a defence from coastal flooding, we need to step back.Iris Möller, Lecturer in Coastal Processes, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1058442018-12-04T18:52:24Z2018-12-04T18:52:24ZDesign for flooding: how cities can make room for water<p>Science is clearly showing that the world is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/03/david-attenborough-collapse-civilisation-on-horizon-un-climate-summit">shifting towards a more unstable climate</a>. Weather events like the <a href="http://floodlist.com/australia/australia-flash-floods-sydney-november-2018">flash floods in Sydney</a> last week will be more frequent and extreme, while the intervals between them will become shorter. With rising sea levels and frequent floods, water landscapes will become part of our urban routine. </p>
<p>Most Australian cities are already located along coastlines or within river catchments. Whether or not we are able to <a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-global-warming-to-1-5c-not-2c-will-make-a-crucial-difference-to-australia-report-says-64287">keep global warming below 1.5°C</a>, the majority of the Australian population will soon live in a <a href="https://d28rz98at9flks.cloudfront.net/69538/69538.pdf">flood zone</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trust-me-im-an-expert-australias-extreme-weather-103903">Trust Me, I'm An Expert: Australia's extreme weather</a>
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<p>This means we will have to start planning and designing our cities for a new normal. We will become used to redesigned parks and gardens, for instance, that help us co-exist with water.</p>
<h2>Change of perspective: rainwater is a resource, not waste</h2>
<p>Understanding the water cycle is an opportunity to generate a positive relationship between natural processes, plants and people. We can learn to look at flooding as a regenerative element to improve life in urban areas.</p>
<p>For a long time, however, urban design has overlooked the opportunity rainwater provides within the urban system. A conceptual leap forward is needed to shift the common perception of rain as waste to be disposed of. It can instead be seen as a non-renewable resource to be protected and reused. </p>
<p>This change is already visible in front-line urban experimentation. Cities like <a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/orr/pdf/NYC_Climate_Resiliency_Design_Guidelines_v2-0.pdf">New York</a>, <a href="http://gnoinc.org/wp-content/uploads/GNOH2O_Pamphlet_Trimmed_FINAL.pdf">New Orleans</a> and <a href="https://en.klimatilpasning.dk/media/568851/copenhagen_adaption_plan.pdf">Copenhagen</a> are reorganising themselves following <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/24/us/new-orleans-flood-walls-hurricanes.html">catastrophic</a> <a href="http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/stormwater/flooding_index.shtml">floods</a> in <a href="http://cphpost.dk/news/flooding-in-denmark-becoming-the-norm.html">recent years</a>. Here, urban design is changing radically the ways to use, experience and perceive cities’ space. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248384/original/file-20181203-194956-w79d5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248384/original/file-20181203-194956-w79d5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248384/original/file-20181203-194956-w79d5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248384/original/file-20181203-194956-w79d5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248384/original/file-20181203-194956-w79d5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248384/original/file-20181203-194956-w79d5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248384/original/file-20181203-194956-w79d5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248384/original/file-20181203-194956-w79d5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Enghaveparken, a park in the Danish capital Copenhagen, before and after rain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tredjenatur.dk/en/portfolio/enghaveparken-now/">Courtesy of Tredjenatur, Copenhagen</a></span>
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<p>Innovative strategies understand <a href="https://www.ruimtevoorderivier.nl/english/">flood as a natural process</a> to work with, rather than resist. Non-structural, soft and nature-based solutions to flood adaptation are replacing centralised and engineered technologies. </p>
<p>These projects use climate change positively to provide multiple added benefits. The benefits include spaces for recreation, ecological functions, environmental recovery, increased urban biodiversity and economic regeneration.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-in-resilience-what-city-planners-can-learn-from-hobarts-floods-96529">Lessons in resilience: what city planners can learn from Hobart's floods</a>
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<h2>Make room for the water</h2>
<p>The idea to work with water through flood-mitigation measures based on natural processes has been explored in different ways. These can be summarised in four main strategies.</p>
<p><strong>Sponge spaces and safe failure:</strong> a network of small-to-medium-sized green areas absorbs and stores excess water. Almost every urban open space, including rooftops, can be part of a decentralised off-grid system. </p>
<p>In Copenhagen, the <a href="https://policytransfer.metropolis.org/case-studies/copenhagen-climate-resilient-neighbourhood-strategy">Climate-Resilient Neighbourhood program</a> aims to transform at least 20% of public ground to work as a sponge to reduce flash flooding in dense inner-urban areas. When needed, controlled flooding of one part of the system will avoid problems elsewhere – such as roads. These “safe to fail” spaces can have multiple functions and be used for public recreation when they are not flooded.</p>
<p><strong>Design for variability:</strong> as water processes are seasonal, design should reflect variability and periodic flood change. A more comprehensive understanding of nature’s processes in cities is emerging as a source of design inspiration, leading to a new spatial expression, besides ecological benefits. </p>
<p>This is an interesting advancement in urban design, with evolving layouts replacing fixed forms. A focused selection of plant varieties and soil substrata supports spatial variability. A good example is Billancourt Park in France, where water defines the constantly changing spaces of the gardens.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248593/original/file-20181204-194932-1nuye1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248593/original/file-20181204-194932-1nuye1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248593/original/file-20181204-194932-1nuye1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248593/original/file-20181204-194932-1nuye1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248593/original/file-20181204-194932-1nuye1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248593/original/file-20181204-194932-1nuye1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248593/original/file-20181204-194932-1nuye1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248593/original/file-20181204-194932-1nuye1c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The renatured Billancourt Park in Paris is designed to manage dramatic changes in water levels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.landezine.com/index.php/2017/06/nature-at-mooring-boulogne-park-by-agence-ter/">Courtesy of Agence Ter, Paris</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248385/original/file-20181203-194956-18spmgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248385/original/file-20181203-194956-18spmgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/248385/original/file-20181203-194956-18spmgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248385/original/file-20181203-194956-18spmgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248385/original/file-20181203-194956-18spmgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=240&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248385/original/file-20181203-194956-18spmgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248385/original/file-20181203-194956-18spmgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/248385/original/file-20181203-194956-18spmgz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=301&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Parc de Billancourt, water levels diagram:
1) Permanent water, 2) Normal rain, 3) Important rain, 4) Annual flood, 5) 10 years flood, 6) 50 years flood.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://agenceter.com/en/projets/parc-du-billancourt/#">Courtesy of AgenceTer, Paris</a></span>
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<p><strong>Don’t let it go:</strong> rainwater is a precious resource and should be retained and used on the spot. Impermeable ground and roof surfaces should be harnessed to capture rainwater, harvest it and store it for further uses, such as irrigation, washing and flushing toilets. The process is particularly simple and does not require specific technology, especially for rooftop water, which is clean enough to be reused as it falls.</p>
<p><strong>Let it seep through:</strong> paving should let water infiltrate to the underground and feed the aquifers. Permeable grounds restore the natural water cycle, allowing humidity exchange between air and the soil. An additional benefit is that this cools urban spaces, reducing heat in summer and creating a more comfortable habitat.</p>
<p>To limit the number of impervious surfaces, roads and parking should be reduced, with grass or porous tiles replacing asphalt. When paving is necessary, it should be designed to provide a moderate filtering function to reduce rain impurities.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247925/original/file-20181129-170241-10conlx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247925/original/file-20181129-170241-10conlx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/247925/original/file-20181129-170241-10conlx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247925/original/file-20181129-170241-10conlx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247925/original/file-20181129-170241-10conlx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=375&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247925/original/file-20181129-170241-10conlx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247925/original/file-20181129-170241-10conlx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/247925/original/file-20181129-170241-10conlx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The climate tile project in Nørrebro, Copenhagen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.tredjenatur.dk/en/portfolio/climatetile/">Courtesy of Tredjenatur, Copenhagen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
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<p>
<em>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-your-garden-could-help-stop-your-city-flooding-42473">How your garden could help stop your city flooding</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A broad, collective effort is needed</h2>
<p>Broad implementation of the strategies needed to reduce flooding across public and private domains is complex. It calls for a collective effort.</p>
<p>Research on urban climate adaptation suggests that planning for flood management is often a top-down process. Post-flood recovery programs have rarely been opportunities for central governments to consider the needs of local communities. </p>
<p>Shared decisions on water management are needed to develop resilient communities and help them adapt to rapidly changing climate. New challenges can become opportunities if environmental goals can be twinned with sustainability and social equity objectives. </p>
<p>Moreover, the implementation of flood adaptation measures is still too sporadic. It’s often limited to centralised wetlands in large parks and gardens. A capillary-type network is needed, which infiltrates the dense urban fabric with small to medium nature-based measures. </p>
<p>There is no evidence yet, however, that the cumulative benefits from these systems will be effective to avoid massive flash flooding. Therefore, the need to start systematically testing and monitoring these measures at the urban scale is urgent. We need to start asking questions such as: what if every roof had a vegetated surface, if every sidewalk had retaining capacity, if every parking space was a rain garden?</p>
<p>Looking at how cities are designed and performing in Australia, there is plenty to learn from the international experience. We have a lot to do to adjust this knowledge to the local context.</p>
<p>And we urgently need to apply this knowledge, because if we don’t quickly learn how to work with water in cities, water will hit them even harder in the future.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-in-a-flood-zone-heres-a-way-to-do-it-and-reduce-the-risks-86608">Higher density in a flood zone? Here's a way to do it and reduce the risks</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105844/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elisa Palazzo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australia’s coastal settlements are highly exposed to the impacts of climate change. Climate-resilient urban landscapes that can cope with large amounts of water need to become the new normal.Elisa Palazzo, Senior Lecturer in Urban and Landscape Design, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1065812018-11-30T13:01:40Z2018-11-30T13:01:40ZMany African countries are flooding, risking decades of development if they do not adapt<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245520/original/file-20181114-194516-1qbuul4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Most African countries have made strong progress in <a href="http://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/african-successes-listing-the-success-stories">achieving major development goals</a> in the last few years. Despite this much needed progress, the past decade has seen flooding damage or destroy much of this same infrastructure, affecting millions and killing hundreds every year. In 2018 alone – up to September 15 – based on conservative <a href="http://floodlist.com/africa">estimates</a>, flooding across Sub-Saharan Africa has destroyed more than 10,000 homes and affected more than <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201802280677.html">2m people</a>. </p>
<h2>A heavy price to pay</h2>
<p>A recent study suggested that floods cost Tanzania <a href="https://allafrica.com/stories/201802280677.html">US$2 billion annually</a>. In 2012, Nigeria experienced one of its largest floods in a century, destroying assets worth nearly <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10113-017-1253-y">US$10 billion</a>. In Mozambique, one of the poorest countries in the world, floods in 2013 were estimated to cost over US$500m – nearly 9% of GDP. These figures are significant, especially when considering that this money could have been invested in other developmental goals.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245378/original/file-20181113-194509-1stipau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245378/original/file-20181113-194509-1stipau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245378/original/file-20181113-194509-1stipau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245378/original/file-20181113-194509-1stipau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245378/original/file-20181113-194509-1stipau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245378/original/file-20181113-194509-1stipau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245378/original/file-20181113-194509-1stipau.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flooding costs Tanzania an estimated US$2 billion each year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/manyara-tanzania-november-28-catastrophic-debris-90344083?src=xt1eybvLXkJT92j6Au_Dow-1-62">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>The importance of infrastructure</h2>
<p>The simple fact remains that people depend on infrastructure to meet their needs. Without roads, people are not able to sell their goods on the market. School closures disrupt learning for millions of children. Damaged roads and bridges restricts access to health services. The destruction of critical infrastructure such as power and telecommunications leads to untold economic costs. Hectares of destroyed farmland and livestock can be killed. Health emergencies, including cholera outbreaks, can emerge due to poor sanitation and a lack of access to clean water. </p>
<p>These examples highlight the implications of these recent floods for the 17 <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/">sustainable development goals</a> (SDGs) set out by the UN. </p>
<p>In Africa, about <a href="https://afro.who.int/health-topics/water">3,000 people die daily</a> from diseases linked to poor sanitation, poor hygiene and contaminated water, particularly diarrhoea and malaria. This situation is worsened by flooding, which will make it harder to achieve <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/water-and-sanitation/">SDG 6</a>– ensuring access to water and sanitation for all. </p>
<h2>Adaptation is key</h2>
<p>In order to lessen the consequences of flooding, African societies must make two major changes.</p>
<p>First is to place greater focus on adaptation strategies, alongside mitigation. Before now, most of the efforts across Africa have been “hard” engineered routes to mitigate flood impacts. This means working against rather than with nature, for instance by building dams or embankments. </p>
<p>However, there is now a general recognition that while floods cannot be entirely prevented, steps can be taken to minimise their impact and speed up recovery. Such a shift in thinking may inspire donor agencies, who provide aid or rehabilitation post-flooding, to consider using the same amounts of money to fund flood adaptation initiatives as well. </p>
<p>For instance, after a <a href="http://floodlist.com/africa/kenya-floods-dam-break-nakura-may-2018">recent flood</a> in Nakuru county, just north of Nairobi in Kenya, the EU alone provided €1.5m to help flood victims. Such funds can be channelled towards helping communities adapt to flooding and increase their resilience. This would mean, for instance, factoring in current and likely future flood conditions when constructing or managing new infrastructure.</p>
<p>A particularly good initiative that incorporated such adaptation strategies was the <a href="http://www.nleworks.com/case/makoko-floating-school/">Makoko floating school</a>. The school is a prototype floating structure, built for the historic water community of Makoko, located on the lagoon heart of Nigeria’s largest city, Lagos. As a pilot project, it has taken an innovative approach to address the community’s social and physical needs in view of the impact of climate change and a rapidly urbanising Africa. More efforts should be channelled towards strengthening and scaling up such initiatives.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245383/original/file-20181113-194497-7fp87b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245383/original/file-20181113-194497-7fp87b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245383/original/file-20181113-194497-7fp87b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245383/original/file-20181113-194497-7fp87b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245383/original/file-20181113-194497-7fp87b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245383/original/file-20181113-194497-7fp87b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245383/original/file-20181113-194497-7fp87b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Concept diagram of the Makoko floating school, located in the Lagos Lagoon in Nigeria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/eager/8555380515/in/photolist-e37fUA-e31yyB-e37hq1-e37gnW-e31Ada-e37fG5-e31z1e">Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>The second major change is to scale up “soft” non-structural adaptation measures, such as <a href="https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/17628IIED.pdf">ecosystem-based approaches</a> to flooding. These involve measures which work with the natural flood cycle rather that struggling against it. These solutions include the widening of natural flood plains, planting more trees, protecting and expanding wetlands, and investing in urban green spaces to reduce water run off. </p>
<p>This could be beneficial considering that most African countries do not have sufficient finances to justify the costs of dams and other “hard” engineering. As competing with education and agriculture expenditure priorities is unlikely to end well in such a poor economy, “soft” non-structural adaptation measures may provide a more promising route. </p>
<p>While the increased flooding can be linked to climate change, some of the causes have roots in the destruction of ecosystems. Take, for example, the unprecedented <a href="https://qz.com/africa/923142/the-flaw-in-the-construction-of-eko-atlantic-island-in-lagos/">land reclamation projects</a> along the coastal areas of Lagos. The result has been enormous environmental damage because much of what is being drained for housing are coastal wetlands, which are traditionally known for their ability to control flooding.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245373/original/file-20181113-194519-us71zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/245373/original/file-20181113-194519-us71zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245373/original/file-20181113-194519-us71zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245373/original/file-20181113-194519-us71zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245373/original/file-20181113-194519-us71zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245373/original/file-20181113-194519-us71zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/245373/original/file-20181113-194519-us71zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Eko Atlantic City, land reclamation project in Lagos, Nigeria.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/1162432375?src=hs2wXTba3Jsgn0OttbF4Kw-1-0&size=huge_jpg">Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Policy makers often see flooding as a humanitarian issue only – they must be reminded that there is an <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04396-1#ref-CR16">economic dimension</a> too. There is evidence that <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/explore-topics/climate-change/what-we-do/adaptation-and-resilience/ecosystem-based-adaptation">ecosystem-based adaptations</a> are helping people, particularly women and children, adapt to climate variability and reduce their vulnerability to climate impacts. </p>
<p>By adopting an ecosystem-based adaptation, a recent study showed how <a href="http://news.baothuathienhue.vn/ecosystem-based-adaptation-became-a-storm-and-flood-resilience-method-in-thua-thien-hue-province-a59538.html">Thua Thien-Hue Province in Vietnam</a> was able to introduce cleaner urban areas with more opportunities for recreational activities, all the while reducing damage to infrastructure. Less damage to properties means smaller repair costs and an overall safer environment, whereas increases in tourism, or recreation suitability, can lead to better employment and business opportunities. </p>
<p>With the impacts of flooding increasingly being felt across Africa, there is an urgent imperative to adapt infrastructure to flood hazards while fostering sustainable economic development on local, national and regional levels. Without this, all the developmental achievements made so far will be completely undone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/106581/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Olalekan Adekola does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>African countries are sure to face more flooding in the future, they need to adapt or risk loosing the progress that’s already been madeOlalekan Adekola, Lecturer in Geography, York St John UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/965292018-05-17T20:06:48Z2018-05-17T20:06:48ZLessons in resilience: what city planners can learn from Hobart’s floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218934/original/file-20180515-122928-1xrwbpl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A storm caused flooding in the CBD as it swept through Hobart.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Gee/The Mercury. Used with permission</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hobart">Hobart</a> is a city known for its risk of catastrophic fire, such as the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-06/tasmanias-1967-black-tuesday-bushfires-explained/8241698">devastating wildfires</a> of 1897-98 and 1967. As the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-24/perth-rainfall-higher-than-melbourne-hobart-and-london/9688142">second-driest city</a> in Australia, until last week it was easy to forget that Hobart is also vulnerable to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-14/hobart-floods-declared-natural-disaster/9759794">serious flooding</a>. Like many cities, Hobart’s closeness to nature can be a double-edged sword – the hilly terrain affords spectacular views of <a href="https://goo.gl/images/2y8DuX">the mountain and the river</a>, but makes the city especially prone to wildfire and flash-flooding. </p>
<p>Hobart’s lack of preparedness for the scale and intensity of the May 2018 flood is also <a href="https://theconversation.com/planning-for-floods-and-fires-now-the-recipe-for-disaster-has-changed-11832">partly attributable</a> to the city’s postwar planning. So how can Hobart and cities like it become more resilient to <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-catastrophic-disasters-striking-more-often-83599">increasingly frequent natural disasters</a>?</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Flash flooding turns the city of Hobart into a disaster zone.</span></figcaption>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/higher-density-in-a-flood-zone-heres-a-way-to-do-it-and-reduce-the-risks-86608">Higher density in a flood zone? Here's a way to do it and reduce the risks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A history of vulnerability and risk</h2>
<p>Like it or not, disasters are part of the urban landscape. So too is social inequality. And the two can be mutually reinforcing – socially isolated and disadvantaged residents are often less able to cope when disaster strikes. They may, for example, lack insurance or be less mobile. </p>
<p>Social cohesion is a key element in community disaster recovery, helping cities “bounce back” after an event. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-dont-occur-randomly-so-why-do-we-still-plan-as-if-they-do-93371">good land use planning is also important</a> to avoid creating future problems.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-healthy-environment-shouldnt-just-be-for-the-rich-10439">A healthy environment shouldn't just be for the rich</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Planning (non)-responses</h2>
<p>Like the rest of Australia, historically <a href="https://theconversation.com/our-legacy-of-liveable-cities-wont-last-without-a-visionary-response-to-growth-93729">city planning</a> in Hobart was characterised by disconnection from nature. Creeks and streams were filled in, built over or walled off (taming nature), creating risks of <a href="https://global.nature.org/content/natures-solutions-for-infrastructure-problems">catastrophic failure in unexpected conditions</a>. This approach also overlooked the important <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-green-roofs-can-protect-city-streets-from-flooding-82679">ecological functions</a> of watercourses. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=456&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218940/original/file-20180515-122935-1g0s8mm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=573&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hobart Rivulet, circa 1900, photographer unknown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tasmania Archive and Heritage Office, NS1013/1/344</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The recent storm event was not the worst on record. In the 1960s, the city experienced <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/tas/flood/flood_history/flood_history.shtml">very severe flooding</a>. There were also several bad floods in the 1930s. But Hobart has changed since then. </p>
<p>The city has grown significantly. As houses, roads and buildings increase the paved area, Hobart has lost some of its green cover, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/chinas-sponge-cities-aim-to-re-use-70-of-rainwater-heres-how-83327">acts like a sponge</a>. And in recent times the city has had an <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-29/tasmania-top-of-the-pops-for-population-growth,-report-finds/9370524">influx of residents</a> who lack experience with the city’s natural hazards.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218744/original/file-20180514-178740-dv8mhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hobart Rivulet in flood, circa 1930, Collins Street and Market Place, photographer unknown.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tasmanian Archive and Heritage Office</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Over the decades, the record of flood events has been partly translated into planning knowledge. For instance, Hobart’s interim town planning scheme has overlay maps indicating places prone to flooding, landslide and wildfire. </p>
<p>Planners now also apply <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-your-garden-could-help-stop-your-city-flooding-42473">water-sensitive urban design</a> principles. These include protecting floodplains from development, limiting the development of very steep land, and restricting land uses on flood-prone sites (e.g. to recreation areas).</p>
<p>Unfortunately for Hobart’s residents, many of these principles were devised after much of the city was already built. Planning is less effective at retrospectively requiring that buildings are upgraded or even relocated. </p>
<p>Given Australia’s system of property rights, planners can seldom <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420914000028">relocate entire communities</a> out of harm’s way – the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01944363.2014.976586">response to the Grantham floods</a> in Queensland has been an exception. The default approach has been to leave it to the insurance system to manage risk and recovery.</p>
<h2>Whose responsibility?</h2>
<p>One of the drivers for the lack of policy on minimising disaster risks in Tasmania is the state government’s aim to reduce government involvement in risk management and <a href="http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/osem/mitigating_natural_hazards">shift responsibility onto households and businesses</a>. This is placing a greater emphasis on disaster “self-help” through insurance and risk reduction – such as clearing firebreaks, cleaning gutters and so on.</p>
<p>We assume that if a flood or fire affects residents, then insurance will allow them to get back on their feet. However, <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/news/insure-it-it-s-worth-it.html">half of residents may be underinsured</a>, according to Victorian government estimates. <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0042098017736257">The reasons</a> include being unable to afford insurance or deciding they have more pressing financial priorities. </p>
<p>Insurance can also be inadequate because it is hard to estimate replacement costs. These costs may soar after a disaster. The Hobart repair bill has already <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-14/hobart-floods-insurance-claims-come-pouring-in/9758208">climbed above A$20 million</a>, and residents may discover their policy is inadequate. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219317/original/file-20180517-155607-1cj65ui.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Even if residents have insurance – and many don’t – it may not be enough to cover their costs in the disaster recovery phase.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/properties-under-fire-why-so-many-australians-are-inadequately-insured-against-disaster-50588">Properties under fire: why so many Australians are inadequately insured against disaster</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can planners learn from this?</h2>
<p>Even though Hobart avoided loss of life in the recent floods, we might not be so lucky next time. Governments have a key role to play in getting the balance right between regional and large-scale infrastructure planning and self-help at the household level. Focusing on self-help at the expense of planning and broader-scale mitigation can increase a city’s vulnerability. </p>
<p>We need to <a href="https://theconversation.com/moving-grantham-relocating-flood-prone-towns-is-nothing-new-4878">learn from other places</a>. Key actions should follow the principle of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461100079X">safe failure</a> and may include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>better communication of hazard mapping and using town planning scheme overlays to enforce development restrictions</p></li>
<li><p>devising state policies for watershed, coastal and bushland management to reduce risks at regional and watershed scales, which includes protecting green space and <a href="https://theconversation.com/cant-see-the-water-through-the-trees-a-better-plan-to-reduce-floods-5719">restoring floodplains</a></p></li>
<li><p>identifying opportunities for “multifunctionality” – for example, a cricket ground is also a flood retention basin</p></li>
<li><p>strengthening social cohesion and reducing inequality, so communities can bounce back faster</p></li>
<li><p>identifying properties in harm’s way and using new building codes, compulsory acquisition or even managed relocation to reduce hazard exposure</p></li>
<li><p>siting critical infrastructure, such as hospitals and electricity substations, away from floodplains and building in redundancy – backup infrastructure, for example.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Not all these solutions can be implemented immediately. Paradoxically, some actions – planting trees, for instance – could <a href="https://theconversation.com/low-flammability-plants-could-help-our-homes-survive-bushfires-53870">increase other risks, such as bushfires</a>. </p>
<p>In cities like Hobart, by learning from past mistakes and experimenting with alternative solutions, good planning can avoid putting people in harm’s way in the future.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-hazard-risk-is-it-just-going-to-get-worse-or-can-we-do-something-about-it-84286">Natural hazard risk: is it just going to get worse or can we do something about it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96529/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason Byrne receives funding from the Australian Research Council for research on (i) climate change and social innovation and (ii) green space and health. He is a member of the Planning Institute Australia, Institute of Australian Geographers and Association of American Geographers. Jason donates to environmental groups (e.g. Australian Conservation Foundation). He also provides research consultancy services to state and local government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dave Kendal receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne, the federal Environment Department through the Clean Air and Urban Landscapes Hub of the National Environmental Science Program, and the Glenelg-Hopkins and Corangamite Catchment Management Authorities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Pharo is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia and sits on the policy sub-committee in Tasmania. She is a member of a City of Hobart transport planning committee and an active member of Bicycle Network Tasmania. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Booth receives funding from the Australian Research Council (DP170100096) and collaborates on Tourism Tracer, partly funded by Tasmanian Government (State Growth), Tourism Industry Council Tasmania and Federal Group. She is a member of the Planning Institute of Australia and sat on its Tasmanian Committee until December 2017. She also donates to planning- and environment-related non-government organisations. </span></em></p>Managing flood risk is not just ‘good planning’; it requires commitment to resilient cities by land developers, politicians and communities. Effective response means learning from mistakes.Jason Byrne, Professor of Human Geography and Planning, University of TasmaniaDave Kendal, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Management, University of TasmaniaEmma Pharo, Senior Lecturer, Geography and Environmental Studies, University of TasmaniaKate Booth, Senior Lecturer in Human Geography and Planning, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/866082017-11-01T18:55:59Z2017-11-01T18:55:59ZHigher density in a flood zone? Here’s a way to do it and reduce the risks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192762/original/file-20171101-13374-1muhjmm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cars are submerged on a flooded road in the Sydney suburb of Marrickville in 2012.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://nixpages.blogspot.com.au/2015/04/">Alex Holver/NixPages</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s March 2018. A massive storm has hit Sydney’s northern beaches. Luckily no one is hurt, but the floodwaters take days to drain away and the economic impact is serious. </p>
<p>Reporters will tell the story over and over again: how much damage this torrential rain did. But where have we heard that before? Well, the list includes: both <a href="https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/04/03/floo-a03.html">Queensland and New South Wales</a> this year, <a href="https://theconversation.com/sydneys-wild-weather-shows-home-owners-are-increasingly-at-risk-60621">Sydney</a> in 2016, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/flash-flooding-causes-chaos-on-queenslands-gold-coast/news-story/b27fca032d274d49d07c34a643e5a63d">Gold Coast</a> in 2015, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-29/live:-flooding-disaster-hits-australias-east-coast/4488032">Bundaberg</a> in 2013, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/emergency/2012-01-24/south-east-queensland-flash-flooding---january-2012/3790910">Queensland</a> in 2012 and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jan/15/australian-floods-queensland-germaine-greer">Brisbane</a> in 2011. </p>
<p>We are starting to understand we will be hit by <a href="https://theconversation.com/droughts-and-flooding-rains-already-more-likely-as-climate-change-plays-havoc-with-pacific-weather-71614">ever-increasing storms and floods</a>. The risk is especially high in years when <a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-el-ninos-cranky-uncle-that-could-send-global-warming-into-hyperdrive-72360">La Nina</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/northern-nsw-is-no-stranger-to-floods-but-this-one-was-different-75701">makes her appearance</a>.</p>
<p>We also know good <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-debbie-we-can-design-cities-to-withstand-these-natural-disasters-75287">urban design can reduce the impacts</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/droughts-and-flooding-rains-already-more-likely-as-climate-change-plays-havoc-with-pacific-weather-71614">Droughts and flooding rains already more likely as climate change plays havoc with Pacific weather</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Measures to soften the blow</h2>
<p>Sydney’s <a href="http://202020vision.com.au/media/7200/barbara-schaffer-gao-sydneys-green-grid.pdf">Green Grid</a> is planned to increase the resilience of the city and its residents against flooding and other climate impacts. The grid is designed to connect hydrological and ecological systems or, better, to reconnect these systems to boost their capacity to deal with sudden and severe impacts. </p>
<p>Spaces need to be created in the city for storing water during and directly after a flood. This will stop water from drowning people, flooding houses or destroying public property. These storages can take the form of <a href="http://www.urbanisten.nl/wp/?portfolio=waterpleinen">water squares</a>, temporary storage on ovals or parking areas, basins or gardens on rooftops, and swales along roads. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192578/original/file-20171031-18725-ysergs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192578/original/file-20171031-18725-ysergs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192578/original/file-20171031-18725-ysergs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192578/original/file-20171031-18725-ysergs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192578/original/file-20171031-18725-ysergs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192578/original/file-20171031-18725-ysergs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192578/original/file-20171031-18725-ysergs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192578/original/file-20171031-18725-ysergs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many water storage areas can combine to provide the capacity to greatly reduce the impacts of flooding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/reinforced-concrete-box-culverts-under-asphalt-717486706?src=NBnBXH6ToJgg96o5EviDYQ-1-24">Christopher PB/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These measures are well known to be effective and together form an urban sponge system. All we need to do is to create more of these places to increase the capacity to take up water, then release it when safe to do so. </p>
<p>In every city certain areas play a crucial role in increasing, or not decreasing, water-storage capacity. These areas are on the edge of the waterscape and the cityscape. Increasing water storage here prevents bigger problems elsewhere. </p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/cyclone-debbie-we-can-design-cities-to-withstand-these-natural-disasters-75287">Cyclone Debbie: we can design cities to withstand these natural disasters</a></em></p>
<hr>
<h2>What this means for Marrickville</h2>
<p>If these places become built-up and can no longer effectively store floodwaters, the impact downstream is disastrous. Carrington Road in Sydney’s Marrickville is a prime example. This inner-city area flooded in <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/after-the-flood-sydney-counts-the-cost-of-record-rains-20120308-1un9p.html">2012</a>, leaving cars floating, houses flooded and people’s belongings lost or ruined. </p>
<p>The analysis and the facts are clear, even neatly mapped out by the New South Wales state government. No misunderstanding there. The safest option is not to build up this area.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192763/original/file-20171101-13406-1i4u642.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192763/original/file-20171101-13406-1i4u642.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192763/original/file-20171101-13406-1i4u642.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192763/original/file-20171101-13406-1i4u642.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192763/original/file-20171101-13406-1i4u642.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192763/original/file-20171101-13406-1i4u642.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192763/original/file-20171101-13406-1i4u642.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192763/original/file-20171101-13406-1i4u642.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=559&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The flood-prone zone in Marrickville.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NSW government, 2015</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, if Sydney wants to become a global city, we need to get used to urban environments with higher densities – these have all kinds of advantages. Immediate benefits include better public transport, higher level of amenities and proximity to a dynamic economic environment which generates jobs for the local population. Higher density also prevents occupation of green spaces outside the city and unnecessarily long commuting times for people housed even further away from the city. </p>
<p>This means no densification of existing neighbourhoods is a poor option. However, a proposal to build 20 buildings with 2,600 units in the flood-prone zone in Marrickville has raised eyebrows. </p>
<p>The local council is opposing the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/28storey-towers-proposed-for-marrickville-in-1-billion-apartment-project-20171013-gz0b6f">“monstrous” scale</a> of the development. The state Labor opposition has joined the battle against this “<a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/labor-leads-campaign-against-mirvacs-marrickville-megaapartment-project-20171019-gz4a8w.html">mega-apartment project</a>”. </p>
<p>But much of the opposition is not for the right reasons. The Inner West Council’s Carrington Road area <a href="https://www.innerwest.nsw.gov.au/news---hot-topics/hot-topics/carrington-road-marrickville-planning-proposal">planning proposal</a> seems to prioritise density over flood risk. When the Cooks River overflows again, as it will, the floods will be even more severe. </p>
<p>Planning should be aiming to create a symbiotic situation, in which a higher-density development and flood mitigation are complementary. The challenge is to marry two seemingly contrasting ambitions: to increase density and yet not increase the vulnerability to floods.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192576/original/file-20171031-18683-1cjrc3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/192576/original/file-20171031-18683-1cjrc3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192576/original/file-20171031-18683-1cjrc3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192576/original/file-20171031-18683-1cjrc3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192576/original/file-20171031-18683-1cjrc3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192576/original/file-20171031-18683-1cjrc3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/192576/original/file-20171031-18683-1cjrc3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This Marrickville apartment block was evacuated when its foundations were damaged following heavy rains in February 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">David Gray/Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Well-structured density makes all the difference</h2>
<p>To achieve this, the first consideration would be to see the area as a flood reservoir where water can temporarily be stored. If this reservoir is then also used to clean rain runoff and grey water from the apartment buildings, it would function as a green space, water treatment and flood remediation space all at once. </p>
<p>What if one large natural wetland could be created, which could capture the water from the Cook River during a flood, but could also clean the rain and grey water from the buildings? The new buildings would not have to suffer from hazards such as flooding because the site design has anticipated the risk.</p>
<p>As an example, imagine a <a href="http://west8.com/projects/urban_design/borneo_sporenburg/">Borneo-Sporenburg</a> type of setting in which the water space surrounds the built-up area. Even with mostly low-rise housing, the development could still reach a high density of around 150 dwellings per hectare. </p>
<p>Applied to Carrington Road, this would imply around 1,200 dwellings can be built in a low-rise setting. Adding two internal superblocks to this development would create another 500 units and only one high-rise building (instead of 20) would then be needed to make it to 2,600 dwellings in the whole development. </p>
<p>The new neighbourhood could form a very sustainable, almost circular system in which waste water, waste heat and waste materials could all be reused for the apartments and dwellings, and in the wetland reservoir. This way the wetland becomes an attractive green space for residents to use. It’s then a green space that not only accommodates the eventual flood, but also regulates the temperature of the urban environment, creating cooler places in summer.</p>
<p>An interesting milieu could emerge here. If the buildings were built on stilts and lifted above the reservoir, wildlife, ecology and water could exist undisturbed under and around the buildings. The result would be a flexible infill development that preserves green and public space, and which is ready for extreme weather or climate conditions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86608/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Roggema does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A massive residential development in a flood-prone inner-city suburb sounds like a recipe for disaster. But good urban design can deliver higher density and reduce the flood risk.Rob Roggema, Professor of Sustainable Urban Environments, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/831842017-09-04T23:24:41Z2017-09-04T23:24:41ZWhat victims of Hurricane Harvey can learn from Katrina as rebuilding begins<p>Floodwaters in parts of Houston are beginning to recede after nearly a week of rain from Hurricane Harvey. The emphasis for many flood victims will now shift from survival to recovery. </p>
<p>While many economists are trying to determine the disaster’s overall toll – <a href="http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-harvey-economic-toll-20170901-story.html">certain to be significant</a> – a topic less explored is the financial impact on Harvey’s victims. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20140273">recent research</a> I co-authored with <a href="https://www.chicagofed.org/people/h/hartley-daniel">economist Daniel Hartley</a>, we provide some of the first victim-level evidence of the financial impact of a costly flood. Specifically, we examined financial data for victims of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. </p>
<h2>Flooding’s toll</h2>
<p>Since Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Houston on August 25, rain totals <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/08/31/harvey-is-a-1000-year-flood-event-unprecedented-in-scale/?utm_term=.d6ea4ce931db">have topped 50 inches</a> in some locations.</p>
<p>The result has been untold human suffering. At least <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-weather/hurricaneharvey/article/Harvey-Aftermath-Houston-police-officer-dies-19-12159139.php">60 lives</a> have been lost, and <a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-texas-harvey-20170901-story.html">tens of thousands</a> had to evacuate their homes. Property damage may surpass that of Katrina, which up until now has been the most costly hurricane to hit the U.S., with an estimated price tag of <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf">US$108 billion</a>. </p>
<p>That storm flooded <a href="http://www.tulane.edu/%7Esanelson/New_Orleans_and_Hurricanes/overviewofleveefailures.pdf">about 85 percent</a> of New Orleans, killed at least <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf">1,833 people</a> and displaced an estimated <a href="http://projects.ce.berkeley.edu/neworleans/">450,000</a> residents.</p>
<p>Katrina is only one of dozens of <a href="http://create.usc.edu/sites/default/files/publications/policytenureundertheu.s.nationalfloodinsuranceprogramnf_0.pdf">devastating hurricanes</a> that have wrought destruction along the southeast and eastern coasts of the United States in recent decades. Yet despite the frequency of such disasters, little has been known until recently about the financial toll on flood victims. </p>
<h2>Studying the financial impact</h2>
<p>In <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20140273">our study</a>, we measured the financial impact from Katrina using <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr479.html">credit agency data</a> on a random sample of U.S. residents. We zeroed in on 16,000 people living in New Orleans at the time of Katrina and tracked their credit histories three years before and after the storm. </p>
<p>The information is quarterly and includes all reported debts, including home loans, credit cards and student loans. Debt is a good proxy for financial impact because a change in borrowing is often how people manage an unexpected shock, such as a disaster. </p>
<p>Although the data are anonymized, their approximate location was included in the data based on the “<a href="http://proximityone.com/geo_blocks.htm">census block</a>” of residence, which in New Orleans is a couple of city blocks in size on average. </p>
<p>We divided residents in our sample into a nonflooded group and four flooded groups based on the <a href="http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2503.htm">depth of water</a> in their block, which ranged from less than a foot for the least-flooded to about eight for the most.</p>
<p>The data showed that prior to Katrina, total debt levels for nonflooded, least-flooded and most-flooded residents were on a similar upward trajectory. The overall level of debt was highest for residents in the nonflooded group, while that of residents in the other two groups were nearly identical. </p>
<p>What we found was that average debt for those who experienced the most flooding plunged within a few months of Katrina, falling about 25 percent. Meanwhile those who had the least flooding saw their debt briefly level off. Debt of those who didn’t encounter any flooding, on the other hand, continued to rise unabated. </p>
<p>Beginning about a year after Katrina, the rate of debt accumulation for all three groups returned to the pre-storm trend. </p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<p><iframe id="Ffivw" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Ffivw/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p></p><hr><p></p>
<h2>Breaking down the debts</h2>
<p>Breaking down the data into specific types of borrowing, we found that it was primarily a sharp drop in home loan debt that accounted for the overall change. </p>
<p>After controlling for several socioeconomic and demographic factors and pre-Katrina flood risk, we saw that home debt decreased by about $12,000 for the most-flooded residents relative to those who experienced none.</p>
<p>The credit agency data indicated that apart from this reduction, flooding from Katrina had a modest and relatively short-lived negative impact on the personal finances of the most-flooded residents.</p>
<p>Their average credit card debt temporarily increased about $500 (15 percent) but was paid back within a year, while auto and student loan debt didn’t change at all. Ninety-day bill delinquency rates rose about 10 percent for a quarter, and credit scores declined about 1 percent for two years.</p>
<p>The relatively modest and short-lived financial impact of Katrina on its victims is supported by another <a href="http://deryugina.com/2017-05-11-hurricane_katrina_draft.pdf">recent study</a> based on tax return data. It found that within a few years of the storm, the income of flood victims was higher than that of filers living outside of New Orleans with similar pre-Katrina financial histories. </p>
<p>An important caveat to both studies is that neither includes information on subpopulations that may be most vulnerable to natural disasters, such as those without a credit history or who don’t file federal income taxes. Residents in both groups were more likely to be unemployed before the flood and have fewer financial resources. </p>
<h2>Role of flood insurance</h2>
<p>Homeowner decisions to use flood insurance to pay down home loan debt accounts for most of the reduction. Around 25 percent of victims with a home loan in the most-flooded group paid it off within six months of Katrina. </p>
<p>Using flood insurance to pay off a home loan made financial sense for some. About <a href="http://levees.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/After-Katrina-Pundits-Criticized-New-Orleans.pdf">two-thirds</a> of homeowners in New Orleans had such insurance. </p>
<p>Assuming a home is fully insured, a flood insurance check would cover the cost to rebuild it. But in many neighborhoods of New Orleans prior to Katrina, <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.22.4.135">reconstruction costs</a> of homes exceeded their worth, in which case it made sense to purchase a similar home elsewhere at a lower cost rather than rebuild. When this occurred, any existing mortgage debt had to be paid off first.</p>
<p>Some homeowners, however, appear to have made this decision to pay off mortgage debt due to pressure from lenders, which is both <a href="http://www.uphelp.org/sites/default/files/disaster/katrina_articles/katrina_mortgage.html">illegal</a> and probably a poor financial decision. We found evidence consistent with <a href="http://thelensnola.org/2011/12/23/kisa-holmes-six-years-later/">accounts</a> that lenders, particularly national banks without a strong local presence, pressured some homeowners to pay off mortgages using flood insurance money.</p>
<h2>What it means for Harvey victims</h2>
<p>So what does the experience of Katrina’s victims mean for the financial recovery of those flooded by Harvey?</p>
<p>First, the collective safety net provided by flood insurance, government assistance, nonprofit aid and personal savings encouraged a relatively quick financial recovery – as measured by debt levels, indicators of financial distress and income – for even the worst-hit victims of Katrina. </p>
<p>Flood insurance played a particularly important role. <a href="http://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/flood-insurance">More than $16 billion in flood insurance was paid out</a>, or $97,141 per claim. By comparison, direct federal assistance to victims for rebuilding was capped at <a href="http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-06-844T">$15,700</a>. Other assistance approved by Congress didn’t arrive until <a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-road-home-opens-10-housing-assistance-centers-statewide-louisiana-housing-recovery-program-underway-56216082.html">over a year</a> later.</p>
<p>That won’t be of much comfort to the residents of Houston, however, where flood insurance coverage rates <a href="http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/08/flood_insurance_in_houston_plu.html">have dropped 9 percent</a> in the past five years. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/08/29/where-harvey-is-hitting-hardest-four-out-of-five-homeowners-lack-flood-insurance/?utm_term=.33ef4b65bb6b">Only 17 percent of homeowners</a> in the counties most affected by Harvey have policies. </p>
<p>In order for Harvey victims to recovery financially at a pace similar to Katrina’s, per-person direct government assistance will likely need to be larger. President Trump <a href="http://www.houstonchronicle.com/houston/article/Houston-heads-into-weekend-post-Harvey-Trump-12168379.php">has reportedly requested</a> $7.9 billion so far.</p>
<p>Second, the Houston metro area <a href="http://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2016/03/24/142556/census-numbers-are-out-greater-houston-area-has-largest-population-gain/">has experienced</a> significant population growth and increasing property values. Flooded homeowners who have insurance are likely to be better off financially if they use their checks to rebuild rather than paying off home loans and walking away. Houston residents should be wary of banks that suggest otherwise.</p>
<h2>Value of flood insurance</h2>
<p>We know that there will be devastating future floods in Houston and elsewhere, and <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_full_report.pdf">climate change</a> is expected to increase their frequency. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.fema.gov/national-flood-insurance-program">National Flood Insurance Program</a> was created in 1968 to help protect Americans against the risk of flooding without requiring extensive taxpayer-financed federal disaster aid. But insufficient insurance coverage, like in Houston, drastically limits its effectiveness. </p>
<p>If we want to avoid generous disaster bailouts in the future, policy changes to the program are necessary: for example, by ensuring more people who choose to live in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-09269-z">areas at greatest risk</a> of flooding <a href="https://www.fema.gov/faq-details/Mandatory-Purchase-of-NFIP-Coverage">are compelled</a> to buy insurance. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/09/01/cbo-flood-insurance-program-shortfall/625460001">Strengthening</a> the insurance program is one way to help ensure residents of Houston and other coastal cities are prepared for the many floods to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/83184/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Justin Gallagher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Researchers examined credit data on the victims of Hurricane Katrina to understand how the disaster affected their personal finances, revealing important lessons for those hurt by Harvey.Justin Gallagher, Assistant Professor of Economics, Case Western Reserve UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/540982016-02-04T12:28:09Z2016-02-04T12:28:09ZSeven ways we can fight back against flooding<p>There is no panacea for flood events, but there a range of things we can either do better or start doing to mitigate or adapt to them.</p>
<p>The recent UK floods caused by Storm Desmond in the first week of December 2015 were devastating on both sides of the Pennines. A <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35333324">record-breaking</a> 341mm of rain fell in 24 hours, and 405mm in 48 hours – another record. Tens of thousands of people had to evacuate their homes, there was widespread power loss after two substations were flooded, and transport links were shut down across the region.</p>
<p>What made this flood especially severe is that the previous two months were very wet. Extreme weather events such as Storm Desmond tend not to occur in isolation and nor are they evenly spaced out. In Cumbria there had already been a cluster of previous storms and this was the big one.</p>
<p>To manage such large floods we need to understand the sequence of events that occurs during a period of intense rainfall and how this may be changing. But we also need to learn to deal with the flood waters in ways that are affordable and sustainable.</p>
<h2>1. Get to grips with climate change</h2>
<p>Every time an extreme weather event takes place, such as a flood or drought, people ask “was that <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-just-blame-climate-change-chennai-floods-were-a-manmade-disaster-51849">caused by climate change</a>?” A better question to ask is “How much more likely are these events under a changed climate?” So, if such a large event used to have an annual probability of occurrence of 1%, and that has now gone up to 2%, we could say that climate change has doubled the probability of it happening. This is crucial in preparing for future extreme weather events.</p>
<h2>2. Make forecasting smarter</h2>
<p>There is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-anyone-asking-people-what-they-want-from-the-smart-cities-of-the-future-23855">global push</a> for cities to become “smart” in everything from traffic flows and energy use to weather hazards by gathering and analysing more real time data. But more specifically for flooding, water sensor networks and <a href="https://research.ncl.ac.uk/urbanobservatory/">advanced weather radar stations</a> (local versions of what the Met Office and the Environment Agency already use across the UK) could help forecast extreme weather, giving communities more time to prepare.</p>
<h2>3. Improve catchment management</h2>
<p>To combat the severe flooding that took place in Cumbria, <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-we-really-prevent-floods-by-planting-more-trees-52160">rural land management</a> alone is not sufficient. The level of flooding was so enormous that the entire landscape was saturated and any features installed <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/documents/post/QuinnPOST.pdf">to store or slow water</a>, such as ponds or channels, would have been filled. But this kind of natural flood management has a key role to play in reducing small- to medium-sized floods. Green space, green roof tops, trees, permeable surfaces and above-ground water storage all can play a part. But they must be planned strategically to make an impact on surface flooding.</p>
<h2>4. Make best use of flood defences</h2>
<p>Towns and cities such as Keswick and Carlisle are defended by purpose-designed “hard” defences such as flood walls and embankments. These play a crucial role in defending populated areas, but only to a <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-flood-defences-fail-52017">designed standard of protection</a> (usually 1 in 100-year floods). Alarmingly, the defences in Cumbria <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/289422/Eden_Catchment_Flood_Management_Plan.pdf">recently had been upgraded</a> to our best estimates of this level of hazard, so a reassessment is clearly needed. But we also need to assess the feasibility and cost of raising these defences further, as there may be limits to how high they can be built and other options may now be preferable.</p>
<h2>5. Get strategic about large-scale water storage</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.visitkielder.com/about-us/how-it-all-works">Kielder Water</a> is the largest reservoir in the UK, holding 200 billion litres of water. In the winter, the reservoir levels are usually reduced to create space to store rainfall and prevent spills, which cannot be used to generate hydroelectricity. But even this was not enough to withstand the heavy rains of Storm Desmond. If reliable forecasts of heavy rainfall were available well in advance, the reservoir could be partially emptied to make even more space. This could significantly alleviate flooding downstream. But a balance must be found between energy generation, storing water as a resource and managing large flood events.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110301/original/image-20160204-2989-j7a0fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110301/original/image-20160204-2989-j7a0fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110301/original/image-20160204-2989-j7a0fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110301/original/image-20160204-2989-j7a0fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110301/original/image-20160204-2989-j7a0fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110301/original/image-20160204-2989-j7a0fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110301/original/image-20160204-2989-j7a0fq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flooding farmland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.epa.eu/disasters-photos/flood-photos/flooding-in-switzerland-photos-51666243">Gabriele Putzu/EPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>6. Look at rural solutions</h2>
<p>Using agricultural land to store water to protect cities has never been widely promoted in the UK. In fact, our 20th century flood strategy began with the aim of protecting agricultural land from flooding. But water storage on upstream areas provides a new opportunity for us to take action. Countries that experience regular monsoon flooding, <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-07/07/content_243670.htm">particularly in Asia</a>, often <a href="https://www.ruimtevoorderivier.nl/english/">sacrifice farm land</a> for weeks at a time to curb flows and prevent loss of life and damage. <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-26150006">Deliberately flooding</a> the upstream area to avoid the flood wave rushing down towards lowland cities – if done with the cooperation of landowners and farmers – could be one of our best defences against large-scale flooding.</p>
<h2>7. Learn to live with the floods</h2>
<p>It is not possible for all settlements to simply seal themselves off from their environment, and learning to live with floods is inevitable. Whether through local catchment-management initiatives, community flood defence schemes, retrofitting homes, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-inconvenient-truth-houses-built-on-floodplains-could-flood-22605">stronger development control</a> or phased resettlement as we move into a new era of flood risk, we all need to be more flood aware.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54098/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Kilsby works for Newcastle University who receives government funding from the EPSRC for research on flooding and methods for flood risk management. He carries out research on flood risk for the Willis Research Network who also fund Newcastle University. </span></em></p>Climate change makes extreme weather more likely – but we also have the power to make our flood responses smarter.Chris Kilsby, Professor of hydrology and climate change, Newcastle UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/527912016-01-14T12:20:18Z2016-01-14T12:20:18ZFlagship plan to rescue flood-hit home owners already looks out of its depth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107736/original/image-20160111-6996-xb7cr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C1729%2C1125&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Reflecting on flood insurance </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/truckintim/23400740933/in/photolist-BDQV1z-CBe9Yc-CBe66c-C1Bwbn-CwPg1q-BBB5v7-CrPJyX-CwPbcs-BBJhgB-BABVfs-BABmyW-BAB8LS-Cy7Jni-Cq2n4R-BzVQWB-BYP67x-Cq2kFF-BYP64r-Cv1A6Q-C6bVtL-Cv1zX3-BzNzMy-BzNzis-BzVPji-Cj5AfF-BdBVMG-BzP6Y1-BtqBqt-BzNXdA-BtqyPX-BSkWQq-BSkVQu-BSkUBC-BzNQMj-BzNPqw-B3wdMz-BP5V1b-BWnEmQ-BWErWe-BUBMti-AX6VwS-Bs4GR7-BRLztN-BLCEjF-BRS34a-BRQjtD-BCRHbf-Bm5ogL-ANkvnL-BHxQRf">TruckinTim</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Environment Agency still had <a href="https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/">25 “red” flood warnings</a> and 140 “yellow” flood alerts in force across the UK on Monday. This comes as the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/11/flooding-bill-will-hit-13bn-say-insurers">Association of British Insurers estimated</a> that flood damage this winter will have cost the industry about £1.3 billion. It has been a devastating time for many, and government spending on flood defences has come in for intense scrutiny. Close attention is also needed of the industry’s plan to insure the most at-risk homes.</p>
<p>From April 2016, <a href="http://www.floodre.co.uk/">Flood Re will come into operation</a>. It is a private reinsurer, created with legislative support, which will allow insurance companies to surrender the highest risks. Flood Re will allow affordable insurance for those living in vulnerable areas. In the short term, it will be funded by collecting a levy on insurers operating in the market, estimated at around £10 per house insured per year. </p>
<p>Flood Re will also charge for the reinsurance it sells, but the price is capped by reference to council tax bands. This means that high-risk properties will be subsidised by low-risk properties, but Flood Re is required by law to reduce this level of subsidy over time. This gives the government time to deal with high risk areas while shifting towards charging on the basis of the actual risk of flooding. Home owners will not notice any difference: Flood Re will deal exclusively with the primary insurers. But those setting up Flood Re face some unique challenges.</p>
<h2>Risking it all</h2>
<p>The reinsurer is charged by law with pursuing two goals: a move towards “risk reflective pricing” for flood insurance; and maintaining available and affordable flood insurance for residential properties.</p>
<p>These goals are conflicting. Current premium levels in the market do not reflect the risk borne, meaning that the flood component of home insurance for high-risk households is subsidised by low-risk households. If premium levels for high-risk households reflected the true risk, they would be unaffordable for some. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107737/original/image-20160111-6972-mpcthi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107737/original/image-20160111-6972-mpcthi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/107737/original/image-20160111-6972-mpcthi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107737/original/image-20160111-6972-mpcthi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107737/original/image-20160111-6972-mpcthi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107737/original/image-20160111-6972-mpcthi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107737/original/image-20160111-6972-mpcthi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/107737/original/image-20160111-6972-mpcthi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">State protection?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jaypeg/6089948633/in/photolist-fBb9YG-cGd6a7-aYstMX-ebciGm-o8R5so-981VLo-eSSQFx-c1N2dJ-bXiGyp-dUWKkM-2ooPJs-8xZwm7-9VetLq-ah9zyn-aRnxFt-ebciL5-eb6Fha">Jay Peg</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>Meeting both of the stated goals requires a future where the risk of flooding has been steadily reduced by preventative measures and the price of flood insurance has become naturally low, because the risk has also become low. This could prove a dangerous assumption.</p>
<p>In fact, some might say that the global uncertainty of climate change and the political uncertainty around spending on flood protection make such a future a Utopian ideal but the statute expects it to be made real in less than 25 years. </p>
<h2>Making compromises</h2>
<p>Flood Re’s conflicting statutory goals raise the question of which goal will have to give way: “risk based pricing” or “affordability”? The <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2014/21/contents/enacted">Water Act 2014</a> contains provisions supporting Flood Re but does not indicate the priority. In the short term, those in charge of Flood Re will have to determine which is more important. Since Flood Re and the insurance market it supports cannot ultimately be permitted to become insolvent or dysfunctional, risk-based pricing at a higher level may well become a necessity, pushing insurance premiums upwards.</p>
<p>There are other issues too. Flood Re can provide advocacy and policy advice to government, but its core role is as a reinsurer, and as such it does not have any tools to directly influence homeowner behaviour as an insurer might do, through premiums or rewards for risk averse protection measures. </p>
<p>It can potentially influence the level of “excess” that the insured must bear before the home insurer becomes liable. But it has no regulatory powers and its influence over primary insurance will probably only ever be marginal. It is also limited to homes; it will not cover buy-to-let properties, small businesses or apartment blocks, and it is worth noting too that council tax bands are a comparatively poor indicator of disposable income, given the differences in the bands across the country.</p>
<p>There is also the issue of increasing costs. The initial direct cost borne by each householder is relatively low at £10.50 a year – the premium passed on to Flood Re – but this can be increased. In the event of a costly policy year, Flood Re can call for additional contributions from insurers. Even where necessary, price increases and additional calls for funds may well cause Flood Re to be unjustly perceived as a costly white elephant. </p>
<h2>Social imperative</h2>
<p>Flood Re can achieve some important goals. In the immediate term, it will be able to absorb the worst risks, allowing insurers to establish realistic market price levels for the vast majority of commercially valid risks. Over time, it will collect UK flood insurance data, which – depending on how it is made available – should help in monitoring the effectiveness of government and private action to control the effects of climate change.</p>
<p>Flood Re’s intended lifespan ending in less than 25 years should hopefully spur significant government action in high-risk areas. It seems doubtful that successive governments over four parliaments will uniformly treat the massive capital investment necessary as a priority, but Flood Re can at least encourage government to invest in flood prevention, mitigation and resilience to allow the phasing out objective to be met.</p>
<p>This new reinsurer is a necessary measure. Market distortions designed to protect homeowners and consumers have caused prices to remain artificially low. The unavailability of flood insurance is not an option for social reasons – misery and social disruption would result if large neighbourhoods became permanently uninhabitable. But the extent of this year’s flooding and the prospect of more to come undermines both the central assumption in the establishment of Flood Re and its ambitious, conflicting targets. No one can guarantee that the climate will play ball, or that politicians will dig deep to honour a previous regime’s commitments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52791/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Johanna Hjalmarsson has previously received Public Policy@Southampton and ESRC Impact Acceleration funding for flood insurance related research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Davey has previously received ESRC Impact Acceleration funding for flood insurance related research.</span></em></p>Insuring the most at-risk homes should become easier after April, but the latest deluge makes the new scheme look fragile.Johanna Hjalmarsson, Senior Research Fellow, University of SouthamptonJames Davey, Professor of Law, University of SouthamptonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.