tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/forest-fires-25820/articlesForest fires – The Conversation2023-12-17T13:41:42Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2173512023-12-17T13:41:42Z2023-12-17T13:41:42ZIf a tree burns in Canada’s unmanaged forest, does anyone count the carbon?<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/if-a-tree-burns-in-canadas-unmanaged-forest-does-anyone-count-the-carbon" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Earlier this fall, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-01005-y">a commentary</a> in the journal <em>Nature Communications, Earth & Environment</em> argued for a change to the implementation of the Paris Agreement’s reporting mechanisms. The authors called for all countries to report carbon emissions and removals taking place across their <em>entire</em> territories, not just <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change-adapting-impacts-and-reducing-emissions/climate-change-impacts-forests/carbon-accounting/inventory-and-land-use-change/13111">within so-called “managed” lands</a> (as is presently the case).</p>
<p>However, this poses a challenge here in Canada, as there is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2013-0041">deep uncertainty about the total carbon flux (balance of emissions and captures) in Canada’s “unmanaged” land</a>. </p>
<p>I echo calls for the Government of Canada to scale up and improve its greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/annualconference/abs.php?refnum=50-230424-C">and modelling across Canada’s <em>entire</em> territory</a>, and to report these findings in a much more open and transparent manner as part of its annual National GHG Inventory. </p>
<h2>Differentiating between managed and unmanaged land</h2>
<p>Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, member countries are expected to <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/land-use/workstreams/land-use--land-use-change-and-forestry-lulucf/reporting-of-the-lulucf-sector-by-parties-included-in-annex-i-to-the-convention">report GHG emissions and removals</a> taking place as a result of human activities. However, within the LULUCF (or Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry) sector, it is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0283-x">not always clear what constitutes an <em>anthropogenic</em> influence</a>. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/GPG_LULUCF_FULLEN.pdf">guidance provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)</a> has been to delineate between “managed” and “unmanaged” lands, and to focus GHG reporting on the former since these are areas under substantive human influence. While a number of countries make use of this distinction, the portion of land in Canada that is unmanaged is truly significant — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-018-0095-3">equivalent to about 69 per cent of the country’s total land area</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://publications.gc.ca/site/eng/9.506002/publication.html">Canada’s National GHG Inventory</a> does contain information about the carbon flux within managed lands, or lands comprised mostly of managed forest. There is currently around 232 million hectares of managed forest in Canada, however, this leaves roughly 715 million hectares of land in Canada which is technically unmanaged — all of which are unaccounted for in the National GHG Inventory.</p>
<p>What’s more, while Canada does track emissions from natural disturbances (such as in a forest fire) occurring in managed areas, it does not actually report these disturbances to the UN as part of its LULUCF emissions, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/land-based-greenhouse-gas-emissions-removals.html">based on the claim that these are not anthropogenic</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/quebecs-hardwood-trees-could-move-north-heres-how-that-could-affect-the-boreal-forest-landscape-218397">Québec's hardwood trees could move north. Here's how that could affect the boreal forest landscape</a>
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<p>While there is a logic to separating these out, there is a substantial difference to Canada’s total LULUCF emissions, depending on whether or not they are included. For instance, if natural disturbances are included in the tally, Canada’s managed land is typically a net <em>source</em> of carbon, while if they are not included, Canada’s managed land is <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/state-canadas-forests-report/16496">typically a net carbon sink</a>.</p>
<p>The underlying problem, however, is the lack of clear and transparent information about GHG emissions and removals in Canada’s unmanaged lands. </p>
<h2>Estimates vary widely</h2>
<p>Earlier this summer, during Canada’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/wildfire-season-2023-wrap-1.6999005">unprecedented wildfire season</a>, I asked the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of Canada (NRCAN) for historical information about the net Carbon flux in unmanaged lands. I was surprised to learn that NRCAN does not yet have this data. </p>
<p>What NRCAN does have is a <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/climate-change-impacts-forests/carbon-accounting/carbon-budget-model/13107">very robust carbon budget modelling tool</a>, and thanks to this, some preliminary (unverified) estimates of wildfire emissions in unmanaged forests.</p>
<p>Wildfire emissions estimates for unmanaged forests are indeed a step in the right direction (as wildfires account for the bulk of emissions from natural disturbances), but there still remains a majority of unmanaged land which is not forested — including, for instance, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145212">vast peatlands which are also subject to wildfires</a>. </p>
<p>No GHG emissions of any type occurring in unmanaged lands are currently being tracked or reported within the National GHG Inventory process.</p>
<p>There have been various efforts to quantify these emissions, yet estimates vary considerably, with some data sets limited to forest lands, and others looking at the full national territory. </p>
<p><a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1093/2023/essd-15-1093-2023.pdf">One recent estimate</a> used 16 different “Dynamic Global Vegetation Models,” and found that over the 20-year period from 2000-2020 unmanaged forests sequestered on average about 189 Megaton CO2 per year. </p>
<p>However, the <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/14/4811/2022/">Global Carbon Project’s estimates of “atmospheric inversions”</a> suggests there may be orders of magnitude more carbon removal in Canada’s unmanaged land.</p>
<p>The size of the discrepancy between these estimates is puzzling. While one obvious explanation comes down to the former model using intact forests as a proxy for unmanaged land, and the latter model including all of Canada’s unmanaged land area, <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/963/2023/">scientists believe there may be more to this discrepancy</a>.</p>
<h2>A need for further research and better reporting</h2>
<p>It is unfortunate that Canada has no publicly stated estimate of the country’s total carbon flux. This is important information to help track whether Canada’s landmass is sequestering enough CO2 to offset natural disturbances, or whether the latter are outweighing the former. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/carbon-removal-is-needed-to-achieve-net-zero-but-has-its-own-climate-risks-217355">Carbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks</a>
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<p>It is essential that the Government of Canada enhance its <a href="https://gml.noaa.gov/annualconference/abs.php?refnum=50-230424-C">current efforts in land-based carbon flux analysis</a>, and that such data and analysis is reported to the public in a more clear and transparent way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217351/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ryan M. Katz-Rosene does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Current greenhouse gas inventories in Canada only consider “managed” lands. This must change before we can truly understand the scale of Canada’s carbon emissions.Ryan M. Katz-Rosene, Associate Professor, School of Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2173552023-12-06T21:59:33Z2023-12-06T21:59:33ZCarbon removal is needed to achieve net zero but has its own climate risks<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/carbon-removal-is-needed-to-achieve-net-zero-but-has-its-own-climate-risks" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>As delegates gather in Dubai <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/conferences/un-climate-change-conference-united-arab-emirates-nov/dec-2023/about-cop-28#:%7E:text=COP%2028%20is%20an%20opportunity,is%20already%20happening%20and%20ultimately">at the COP28 climate conference</a> — with the aim to ratchet up ambition towards meeting the goals of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">Paris Agreement</a> — a key component of these efforts are <a href="https://zerotracker.net/">countries’ pledges</a> to achieve net-zero emissions around mid-century. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf">Net-zero carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions</a> refers to a balance between CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere and CO₂ removals from the atmosphere, such that the net effect on CO₂ levels in the atmosphere is zero. It is often assumed that if such a balance is achieved, the net effect on climate would also be zero. </p>
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<p>However, in a recent <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7">paper in <em>Nature Climate Change</em></a>, we show that unless we consider a number of other factors — such as permanence of carbon stored in vegetation and soils, changes in the reflectivity of landscapes and the full suite of greenhouse gases emitted — balancing CO₂ emissions with removals will not achieve the intended climate goal.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_AnnexVII.pdf">Carbon dioxide removal</a> (CDR) refers to human activities that deliberately remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere. CDR can leverage either natural or technological systems, though in either case, it must be additional to the CO₂ removal that is driven by passive <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/carbon-sources-and-sinks/">carbon sinks</a> already at work, such as existing forests. </p>
<p><a href="https://cdrprimer.org/read/chapter-2">Examples of CDR</a> include planting trees on previously deforested or unforested lands, producing bio-energy and capturing and storing the emitted carbon, fertilizing the ocean to stimulate biological production and capturing CO₂ directly from the air through chemical and technological means.</p>
<h2>What are the potential problems?</h2>
<p>For CDR to balance the climate effects of CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel burning, it needs to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41242-5">result in permanent carbon storage</a>, meaning that the carbon must remain undisturbed for centuries to millennia. However, carbon stored in trees is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaz7005">vulnerable to natural disturbances</a> such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41854-x">droughts</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27225-4">wildfires</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06777">insect outbreaks</a> and other <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12558">biotic disturbances</a> and could be re-released much sooner. </p>
<p>Carbon sequestered and stored in <a href="https://ecoevocommunity.nature.com/posts/31382-marine-heat-wave-impacts-world-s-largest-seagrass-carbon-stores">seagrass meadows</a> or mangrove forests, for example, is re-released following marine heat waves. Any reversals in land-use and management decisions can also affect the permanence of carbon stored by CDR. </p>
<p>Several CDR approaches, when deployed at a large-scale, affect fluxes of energy and water at the Earth’s surface, resulting in so-called <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.756115/full?mc_cid=84ae26d1c7&mc_eid=8249944246">“biogeophysical” effects</a> on climate that are in addition to the effects of CO₂ sequestration. </p>
<p>For example, large-scale planting of trees in agricultural areas or grasslands results in a reduction of how well the land surface is able to reflect sunlight, and therefore leading to a <a href="https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/629/2023/">warming effect</a>. This effect is particularly strong in regions with seasonal snow cover, where the darker colour of trees reduces the high reflectivity of snow. </p>
<p>Deployment of a range of CDR methods can also result in increased emissions of nitrous oxide and methane, two powerful greenhouse gases. For instance, bio-energy with carbon capture and storage and reforestation require the use of nitrogen fertilizers, which <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2018.11.033">enhances nitrous oxide emissions</a>. </p>
<p>Restoration of coastal ecosystems, such as seagrass meadows or mangrove forests, can also result in an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-64094-1">increase in methane and nitrous oxide emissions</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/geoengineering-sounds-like-a-quick-climate-fix-but-without-more-research-and-guardrails-its-a-costly-gamble-with-potentially-harmful-results-211705">Geoengineering sounds like a quick climate fix, but without more research and guardrails, it's a costly gamble − with potentially harmful results</a>
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<p>Because of the potential impermanence of carbon stored by CDR, and biogeophysical and other greenhouse gas effects, balancing emissions of CO₂ with CDR might not always result in the intended climate outcome. </p>
<p>For example, balancing fossil-fuel emissions with CO₂ removal through large-scale reforestation can result in a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7">higher global warming</a> compared to a case where the fossil fuel emissions are eliminated. This asymmetry could lead to exceeding temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement.</p>
<h2>What to do about it?</h2>
<p>For the reasons above, greenhouse gas accounting, and policies designed to offset greenhouse gas emissions, need to consider the full suite of climate effects of the proposed CDR to ensure intended climate goals are not compromised.</p>
<p>CDR approaches with short carbon storage time scales, or at high risk of natural and/or anthropogenic disturbance (like in fire-prone regions), should not be used to balance fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions. </p>
<p>For carbon removal that targets carbon stores at lower risks of disturbance, it is crucial that net-zero protocols also require an excess amount of CDR as an insurance in the event of carbon losses. </p>
<p>Similarly, CDR approaches that result in biogeophysical effects or release gases such as methane and nitrous oxide upon deployment risk fully negating the climate benefit of carbon sequestration and should be excluded as a means of balancing fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions. </p>
<p>In cases where biogeophysical effects or the release of GHGs partly counter the climate benefit of carbon sequestration, an additional amount of CDR is also required to compensate these effects. The measures used to establish equivalency between CO₂ emissions and removals, and biogeophysical and GHG effects, need to be rigorous and grounded in science. </p>
<h2>Emissions reductions remain primary</h2>
<p>Nature-based climate solutions that are not suitable for balancing fossil-fuel emissions because of a high risk of carbon losses — and/or large biophysical or GHG effects — may still be appropriate to deploy <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rstb.2019.0120">because of benefits</a> other than climate change mitigation. That includes preserving or restoring biodiversity and increasing the resilience of landscapes. </p>
<p>If deployed in addition rather than as an alternative to fossil-fuel emission reductions, these <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00391-z">solutions can still have climate benefits, even if relatively temporary</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cop28-how-7-policies-could-help-save-a-billion-lives-by-2100-212953">COP28: How 7 policies could help save a billion lives by 2100</a>
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<p>Carbon dioxide removal <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">will be needed</a> to balance emissions that are difficult to eliminate and increase the odds of meeting the Paris Agreement climate goal. </p>
<p>However, while CDR can play a crucial role in climate change mitigation, the current uncertainty around its full effects underscores the need to prioritize reducing emissions as rapidly and as much as possible.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217355/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirsten Zickfeld receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Environment and Climate Change Canada's Climate Action and Awareness Fund and Microsoft.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from the Australian National Environmental Science Program.</span></em></p>Carbon capture and sequestration can play a role in limiting warming but the nuances of its application are far more complicated than just planting trees. Getting it wrong could make warming worse.Kirsten Zickfeld, Distinguished Professor of Climate Science, Simon Fraser UniversityPep Canadell, Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Environment; Executive Director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2183972023-11-27T20:33:32Z2023-11-27T20:33:32ZQuébec’s hardwood trees could move north. Here’s how that could affect the boreal forest landscape<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/561078/original/file-20231101-23-x790gm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C2%2C994%2C663&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The combined impact of increasing temperatures (2 to 8°C by 2100) and forest development in the mixed boreal forest could modify the growth and distribution of temperate species.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Québec, there are two distinct types of forest: the northern temperate forest in the south, and the boreal forest in the north.</p>
<p>These forest ecosystems provide <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf3903">many different and essential services</a> to the overall functioning of the planet, and to our economy. For example, the storage of large quantities of atmospheric carbon and habitats for many species, as well as a supply of raw materials to the wood industry, which is a pillar of the economies of both Québec and Canada.</p>
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
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<p>As a doctoral student at Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), I work on the colonization potential of sugar maple, yellow birch and red maple north of their range, in the mixed boreal forest. These three emblematic species of North American forests are of capital economic importance (for lumber, manufacture of plywood, pulp, or maple syrup for sugar maple) and contribute to the diversity of Québec’s forests.</p>
<h2>The mixed forest, between the temperate and boreal biomes</h2>
<p>The mixed forest is located in the transition zone (ecotone) between the boreal and temperate forests. </p>
<p>It refers to the region where these two forests meet, creating an area in which the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Quebecs-vegetation-zones-subzones-and-bioclimatic-domains_fig16_269095315">characteristics of these two types of forest intermingle</a>. This amalgam is characterized by a complex coexistence between temperate hardwood species and the conifers typical of the boreal forest. </p>
<p>It is in this ecotone that temperate hardwoods reach the northern limit of their distribution. </p>
<h2>An uncertain future for the mixed boreal forest</h2>
<p>The combined impact of rising temperatures (2-8°C by 2100) and forest management in the boreal mixedwood forest could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16014">alter the growth and distribution of temperate species</a>. The ecosystem services provided by these species could then be altered.</p>
<p>This transformation could be profound. Temperate hardwood species could migrate northwards and even become <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06525">dominant species</a> in boreal mixedwood <a href="https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/terms/read/1106">stands</a>.</p>
<p>Such a change in the forest composition of the boreal mixedwood forest could have major consequences for the forest industry, natural disturbance regimes and the biodiversity associated with the dominant tree species in the forests. However, there is still considerable uncertainty surrounding the factors that influence the successful establishment and growth of temperate hardwoods in the boreal mixedwood forest. </p>
<p>In order to get a complete picture of the future of the boreal mixedwood forest, it is essential to understand how the growth and establishment of temperate hardwoods within mixedwood stands is influenced by factors such as climate, soil characteristics and competitive interactions between trees.</p>
<h2>Hardwoods in the mixed boreal forest?</h2>
<p>As part of my doctoral work, we attempted to model competitive interactions between trees by taking into account the effects of climate change on their growth. This model simulates each tree in a stand. Each year, trees grow, reproduce and eventually die. The growth of each tree depends on the light the tree receives, competition for nutrients and space, and climate.</p>
<p>In our study, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.06525">published in the journal <em>Ecography</em></a>, we used this model to evaluate the capacity of temperate deciduous trees to establish themselves within mixed species stands in the boreal forest. To do this, we modelled typical mixed stands of the boreal forest, then integrated temperate deciduous species into these, giving the trees the opportunity to colonize these stands.</p>
<p>We showed that the three species of temperate hardwoods could colonize the stand. Yellow birch had a better colonization capacity, with its more numerous and lighter seeds which can disperse further. Red maple and sugar maple had similar abilities when it came to colonizing boreal mixed stands. However, sugar maple showed a better ability to colonize older forests, due to its superior growth under a closed canopy.</p>
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<span class="caption">Temperate hardwood species could migrate north and even become dominant species within the forest’s stands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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<p>The establishment capacity of temperate hardwoods in the boreal mixed forest was higher in the youngest stands, as well as in stands after clear-cutting. Therefore, forest management and forest fires, by rejuvenating boreal mixed forest landscapes, could accelerate the northward migration of temperate tree species.</p>
<p>Increased temperatures due to climate change are not expected to increase the ability of temperate hardwoods to colonize boreal mixedwood forest stands, either in the current climate or under high climate forcing scenarios. This means that climate would not be a factor influencing the northern limit of distribution of temperate hardwood species, and therefore, that climate change should not have an immediate effect on the northern distribution of temperate hardwoods.</p>
<p>The soil types of the boreal mixed forest could, however, be a limit to the growth of temperate hardwoods. In clay soils, the growth of red maple and sugar maple would be poor and would not allow them to be competitive with the species already present, which tolerate clay very well.</p>
<p>Factors governing tree growth such as climate, soil and competition interact together and can <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/cjfr-2019-0319">make predictions about the future distribution of different tree species very complex</a>.</p>
<h2>Both positive and negative effects</h2>
<p>The establishment of temperate hardwoods in the boreal mixed forest could increase the complexity and diversity in stands. This could strengthen the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2435.13257">resistance and resilience of the boreal mixed forest to disturbances</a>.</p>
<p>The presence of temperate deciduous trees in mixed boreal forests could, in particular, attenuate spruce budworm epidemics, because the proportion of fir and spruce trees would be lower and these species would be <a href="http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s004420050441">more dispersed in the stands</a>.</p>
<p>The establishment of temperate deciduous trees will cause an increase in the proportion of deciduous trees in the landscape. This phenomenon, known as enfoliation, has been observed in the mixed boreal forest for the last 100 years and is mainly due to forest management. This envelopment could make epidemics of <a href="https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/663c3ba7-9d26-4243-a6f4-de6866d1685b">forest livery</a> more severe. This defoliating insect attacks deciduous trees and especially aspen, paper birch and sugar maple.</p>
<p>Finally, wildfire regimes could be modified by the differences in flammability of hardwoods and conifers. The presence of temperate deciduous trees, which are less flammable than conifers, could lengthen fire cycles. This positive effect will, however, be associated with a major challenge for the forestry industry which manages the mixed boreal forest, since the industry is currently focused mainly on conifers.</p>
<h2>We can’t stop there</h2>
<p>Further modelling studies are needed to explore the impact of other factors that may influence the ability of temperate hardwoods to colonize boreal mixedwood forest.</p>
<p>In particular, we can think of the impact of soil and mycorrhizae (symbiosis between the roots of plants and fungi) on the germination and growth of trees, but also the effect of weather phenomena, such as late frosts, which can affect the survival and growth of young temperate trees.</p>
<p>Additionally, landscape scale modeling would be beneficial in order to be able to consider the topography of the land, a potentially influential factor on the ability of temperate hardwoods to establish further north.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218397/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabio Gennaretti received funding from the Canada Research Chair in Dendroecology and Dendroclimatology (CRC-2021-00368) and from the Ministère des Ressources Naturelles et des Forêts (contract no. 142332177-D), and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (Discovery Grant no. RGPIN-2021-03553 and Alliance Grant no. ALLRP 557148-20, obtained in partnership with the MRNF and Resolute Forest Products).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxence Soubeyrand ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Research shows that the distribution of temperate hardwoods (sugar maple, red maple and yellow birch) could be shifting northward, which would have serious consequences for the boreal forest.Maxence Soubeyrand, Doctorant en écologie forestière, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Fabio Gennaretti, Professeur en sciences forestière, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2169332023-11-13T21:21:44Z2023-11-13T21:21:44ZQuébec’s summer 2023 wildfires were the most devastating in 50 years. Is the worst yet to come?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557286/original/file-20231027-23-ya6je6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C2032%2C1066&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Forest fires were mostly started by lightning. Their spread was then exacerbated by a lack of precipitation and abnormally high temperatures.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Victor Danneyrolles)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After a summer of exceptional wildfires, the return of cooler temperatures and snowy conditions will provide Québec’s forests a brief respite. </p>
<p>But how long will it last? Are events like these <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/climate/quebec-climate-change-wildfires-research-1.6943502">destined to become more frequent?</a></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
<hr>
<p>As experts in disturbance dynamics occurring in the boreal environment, we are assessing the fires that occurred in Québec in 2023 to provide insights into their causes and consequences.</p>
<h2>Millions of hectares affected</h2>
<p>According to Québec’s <a href="https://sopfeu.qc.ca/en/">Société de protection des forêts contre le feu</a> (Society for the protection of forests against fire, SOPFEU), nearly 700 fires have burned approximately 5.1 million hectares (equivalent to the territory size of Costa Rica), both north and south of the northern forest limit designated by the province — or the boundary that separates northern Québec forests from the southern forests, where logging is conducted.</p>
<p>At the beginning of October, fifteen of the fires that had started in the summer were still active in western Québec. Three of them, although contained, had burned a total of almost 700,000 hectares within the <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/canadian-province-of-quebec-looks-for-international-support-to-fight-over-160-wildfires">intensive protection zone</a>, where the SOPFEU systematically fights all fires. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://sopfeu.qc.ca/lintervention-de-la-sopfeu-dans-les-differentes-zones-de-protection/">northern zone</a>, twelve fires were still under surveillance, some not exceeding 20 hectares, others covering more than a million hectares. Out of the total area burned in 2023 in Québec, three-quarters (3.8 million hectares) were in the northern zone. South of the 50th parallel, within the intensive protection zone, approximately 1.4 million hectares burned, which is more than 80 times the annual average of the past ten years.</p>
<p>When we compare the 2023 fire season to <a href="https://www.donneesquebec.ca/recherche/dataset/feux-de-foret">datasets available since the 1970s</a>, it becomes quite clear that this year was unusual compared to recent decades. Yet, although these fires are impressive and difficult to contain, they are still within the range of “natural variability” observed in previous centuries.</p>
<p>Several <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22090">studies</a> have shown that particularly intense fire cycles were common in Québec during the period from 1910-1920. These were even more common in the 18th and 19th centuries when warm and dry climatic conditions were particularly conducive to forest fires.</p>
<h2>Exceptional weather conditions</h2>
<p>Like historic forest fires, fire outbreaks in Québec in 2023 were fuelled by <a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-more-than-doubled-the-likelihood-of-extreme-fire-weather-conditions-in-eastern-canada/">intense weather conditions</a>. Starting in June, after an already dry month of May, a significant increase in fires was observed in the intensive protection zone. The northern zone was affected throughout the three summer months.</p>
<p>These fires were mainly started by lightning. Their spread was then exacerbated by low precipitation and abnormally high temperatures. <a href="https://www.environnement.gouv.qc.ca/climat/faits-saillants/2023/juin.htm">Temperatures exceeded the 1981-2010 average for the month of June by 2.3°C</a>, setting a record for the warmest June recorded in Québec in at least a hundred years.</p>
<p>These exceptional weather conditions were partly influenced by the El Niño phenomenon, a cyclical warming of the Pacific Ocean known for its impact on terrestrial weather conditions. The trend continued into July, which witnessed exceptionally high average temperatures, well above normal (+2.7°C).</p>
<h2>Multiple consequences</h2>
<p>The simultaneous outbreak of numerous fires and their rapid spread have had multiple effects on wildlife, forests, the climate, and human populations.</p>
<p>The fires have altered the structure and composition of vegetation, causing disruption to wildlife habitats as well as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-wildfires-destabilize-quebec-wildlife-1.6867744">displacement and mortality among animals</a>. As a result, the hunting, fishing and harvesting territories of Indigenous communities have been affected.</p>
<p>In addition to representing a direct threat to public safety, the smoke from the fires caused respiratory problems, leading to <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9791853/quebec-wildfires-more-evacuations-ordered/">the evacuation of thousands of people in several regions of Québec</a>. The deterioration in air quality was felt not only across Canada and the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65828469">United States</a>, but also as far as <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/nasa-quebec-fire-smoke-europe-1.6890108">Europe</a>. Fortunately, evacuations were carried out in time, and casualties were avoided. However, there was some material damage.</p>
<p>In terms of their impact on the climate, large fires released several megatons of carbon dioxide stored in trees and soils, <a href="https://cdnsciencepub.com/doi/10.1139/er-2013-0062">contributing to an increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases</a> (CO<sub>2</sub>, CH<sub>4</sub>).</p>
<p>While the fires have had significant consequences, <a href="https://theconversation.com/forest-fires-north-americas-boreal-forests-are-burning-a-lot-but-less-than-150-years-ago-201365">they can sometimes be beneficial for certain organisms</a>. We can consider tree species like jack pine, which depend on fires for regeneration, and numerous animal species that thrive in burned forests.</p>
<h2>What can we expect in the future?</h2>
<p>Québec’s forests have been burning and regenerating cyclically for millennia. However, it is imperative to recognize that these cycles can evolve over time.</p>
<p>The 2023 fire season highlights the urgency of preparing for significant changes in disturbance dynamics, including the possibility of such events recurring more frequently.</p>
<p>As climate change progresses, periods of drought could become more frequent if precipitation fails to compensate for rising temperatures, as observed in the 20th century.</p>
<p>This combination of factors increases the likelihood of an increase in the number, size, and intensity of wildfires.</p>
<p>Such changes threaten the natural regeneration of forests and could lead to the formation of treeless areas, victims of too frequent fires <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2024872118">for vegetation to have time to regenerate</a>.</p>
<p>These conditions could also be exacerbated by the continued expansion of logging. <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-as-canadas-boreal-forests-burn-again-and-again-they-wont-grow-back-the/">Preliminary analyses</a> have shown that more than 300,000 hectares of forests burned in 2023 may not regenerate, mainly due to the effects of logging in recent decades.</p>
<p>The consequences of major forest fires highlight the climate challenges we face. They demonstrate the need to develop mitigation and adaptation measures aimed at protecting vulnerable forest ecosystems and their inhabitants.</p>
<p>It is therefore imperative to learn lessons from the 2023 fire season to strengthen the resilience of forests and communities to climate change and limit damages caused by fires. This involves reducing risk, protecting the most vulnerable areas, and raising awareness among local populations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216933/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yves Bergeron received funding from FRQNT, NSERC and MNRF.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dorian M. Gaboriau, Jonathan Lesven et Victor Danneyrolles ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>The forest fires of the summer of 2023 in Québec were devastating. It was the worst year in 50 years. But with climate change, the worst may be yet to come.Dorian M. Gaboriau, Postdoctorant en paléoécologie, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Jonathan Lesven, Doctorant en paléoécologie, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Victor Danneyrolles, Professeur-chercheur en écologie forestière, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Yves Bergeron, Professeur écologie et aménagement forestier, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2119662023-08-22T17:49:23Z2023-08-22T17:49:23ZAs Canadian wildfires rage, Facebook’s news ban reveals the importance of radio<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/as-canadian-wildfires-rage-facebooks-news-ban-reveals-the-importance-of-radio" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Amid the wildfire crisis in the Northwest Territories and the Aug. 16 order to evacuate its capital city, Yellowknife, the outcry over Meta’s Canadian news block has reached new heights. The issue has become even more pressing as evacuees face challenges getting essential updates. </p>
<p>I was visiting Paulatuk, a remote part of N.W.T, almost 900 kilometres northwest of Yellowknife when the evacuation order was issued. </p>
<p>I was aware of the news ban on Facebook but I was also able to turn to CBC North’s radio broadcast for updates. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/mediacentre/program/cbc-radio-one-north">CBC North</a> moved its broadcast base from Yellowknife to Calgary to provide continued coverage throughout the unfolding situation. </p>
<p>Based on my recent personal experience in the region, I was reminded that although social media has been vital for disseminating crisis information, AM and FM radio still play an essential role. As well, there is a necessity for a diversity of media sources, especially in moments of crisis. </p>
<h2>‘Reckless’ news-blocking in a crisis</h2>
<p>Following the order to evacuate Yellowknife, many expressed their frustration with the news ban and called on Meta (formerly Facebook) to revoke its embargo of news in Canada so evacuees could access and share real-time updates in a rapidly evolving emergency. </p>
<p>News organizations reflected on the urgency and published a flurry of articles with headlines like “<a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/canada-demands-meta-lift-reckless-ban-on-news-to-allow-fires-info-to-be-shared-1.6525390">Canada demands Meta lift ‘reckless’ ban on news to allow fires info to be shared</a>” and “<a href="https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/meta-news-blocking-reckless-during-wildfire-evacuations">Government calls on Meta to reverse ‘reckless’ news-blocking as wildfires force evacuations</a>.”</p>
<p>Meta’s Canadian news embargo is the corporation’s response to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/c-18-your-questions-answered-1.6925260">Canada’s Online News Act</a>, which passed in June. The <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/canadian-heritage/services/online-news.html">federal government legislation may require large social media platforms to enter into revenue-sharing agreements with Canadian news publishers</a>. </p>
<p>This new law has been divisive, with <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/don-t-be-intimidated-canada-pass-bill-c-18-the-online-news-act/article_3919b0f7-68ea-5393-bae0-21d170e59134.html">some lauding it as vital for preserving quality journalism</a> and others arguing it’s a misguided approach, <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/maxbellschool/max-policy/c-18">advocating alternative methods to achieve similar goals</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1693837916710269236"}"></div></p>
<h2>Social media plays a vital role</h2>
<p>Meta’s news block is significant because it affects both Facebook and Instagram. </p>
<p>Although Meta has claimed “<a href="https://about.fb.com/news/2023/05/metas-position-on-canadas-online-news-act/">users don’t come to us for news</a>,” there is little doubt that social media is an indispensable tool for many to stay connected on current events and to share information among friends and family — especially during emergencies.</p>
<p>Studies have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003043409">social media is vital for disseminating crucial information to the public</a> during crisis situations. The ongoing block on news in Canada has made this sharing difficult. </p>
<p>Even with declared states of emergency in both the Northwest Territories and British Columbia, Meta has made no changes to its policy.</p>
<p>News and critical updates are still accessible by going directly to news publishers’ websites. For example, the Cabin Radio website, based in the Northwest Territories, remains a dependable and <a href="https://cabinradio.ca/143992/news/yellowknife/guide-to-financial-assistance-and-other-supports-for-nwt-evacuees/">frequently updated information source for citizens</a>, even though it is blocked on Facebook and Instagram. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People in a long lineup with luggage in a parking lot." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544003/original/file-20230822-25-4ikzip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544003/original/file-20230822-25-4ikzip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544003/original/file-20230822-25-4ikzip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544003/original/file-20230822-25-4ikzip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544003/original/file-20230822-25-4ikzip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544003/original/file-20230822-25-4ikzip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544003/original/file-20230822-25-4ikzip.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People without vehicles line up to register for a flight to Calgary in Yellowknife on Aug. 17, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Bill Braden</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘Free-to-air’ broadcast radio</h2>
<p>Other citizens have resorted to <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/nwt-wildfire-evacuation-meta-blocking-news-1.6939286">taking screenshots of news stories and then sharing these with their social networks on Meta’s platforms</a>.</p>
<p>In more extreme scenarios, such as when fires disrupt critical infrastructure, including telecommunications, <a href="https://cabinradio.ca/140733/news/environment/wildfires/communications-down-in-a-dozen-nwt-communities/">internet accessibility is compromised in many communities</a> (except perhaps for those with satellite-based services). This underscores <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1550147719829">the fragility of internet-dependent communications during emergencies</a>.</p>
<p>In the realms of engineering and emergency planning, the term “<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/steveandriole/2021/07/16/too-many-single-points-of-failure-threaten-our-digital-infrastructures----theyre-multiplying/?sh=109cd0761317">single point of failure</a>” describes situations in which an entire system stops working when a lone component fails. Relying exclusively on social media or the internet exposes us to a kind of single-point of failure in our emergency communications system.</p>
<p>In fact, reading about the Meta news block may lead people to mistakenly assume that social media is the <em>only</em> source of information on the current wildfire situation in N.W.T. and Kelowna. </p>
<p>It’s not. We should not overlook the significance of “free-to-air” broadcast radio in delivering reliable and trustworthy information to citizens.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cranes feed on a beach in a hazy smoke." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544007/original/file-20230822-23-9p1541.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/544007/original/file-20230822-23-9p1541.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544007/original/file-20230822-23-9p1541.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544007/original/file-20230822-23-9p1541.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544007/original/file-20230822-23-9p1541.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544007/original/file-20230822-23-9p1541.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/544007/original/file-20230822-23-9p1541.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Heavy smoke from nearby wildfires fills the sky as sandhill cranes feed with houseboats in the distance in Yellowknife on Aug. 15, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Angela Gzowski</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Variety of media sources</h2>
<p>Broadcast radio has persevered, ensuring critical updates reach citizens. </p>
<p>During emergencies especially, “free-to-air” radio is a dependable and easily accessible source of timely information, particularly when internet and phone networks falter and when people are on the move, travelling between urban centres where there may be no internet service.</p>
<p>It’s not a matter of choosing between one or the other, but rather ensuring we don’t underestimate the lasting relevance of free-to-air radio as a form of “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1572329">complementary redundancy</a>.” This concept underscores the importance of relying on a blend of highly reliable systems like broadcast radio combined with the internet and social media. </p>
<p>The two systems can work hand-in-hand. The internet and social media may be somewhat less reliable during a crisis, but can nonetheless be exceptionally effective at sharing a rich variety of media content, including maps and interactive exchanges of information. This includes user-generated updates when there are no reporters or local media on the scene.</p>
<h2>Highly reliable news source</h2>
<p>As we look forward, we should not let our reliance on social media overshadow the continuing significance of free-to-air broadcast radio as a cost-effective, highly reliable information source. </p>
<p>AM radio, in particular, continues to <a href="https://www.agcanada.com/daily/potential-loss-of-am-radio-in-vehicles-a-concern-for-farmers">play an important role for farmers and others in remote areas</a> for market and weather reports, as well as emergency updates. </p>
<p>Recent decisions by several automobile manufacturers <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/05/13/am-radio-electric-cars/">to phase out AM radio from cars</a> has some lawmakers in the United States concerned. And as a result, a new <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/1669">bipartisan bill to ensure AM radio remains a standard feature in all new cars has been proposed</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1658857970040487942"}"></div></p>
<p>We’ve come to rely on social media as a vital source of information during emergency events.</p>
<p>But Meta’s continued ban on news in Canada during the wildfire events in the Northwest Territories and British Columbia serves as a reminder of the enduring value of free-to-air broadcast radio, even in the digital age.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211966/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gordon A. Gow receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).</span></em></p>Social media has been vital for disseminating information during crises, but with Facebook’s ban of news in Canada, old-school media, especially radio, is critically important.Gordon A. Gow, Professor, Sociology/Media & Technology Studies, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2083452023-07-16T11:56:56Z2023-07-16T11:56:56ZPollution timebombs: Contaminated wetlands are ticking towards ignition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534433/original/file-20230627-29982-kxs94r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=820%2C20%2C3780%2C1669&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A flaming peatland fire in Alberta, Canada.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Greg Verkaik)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wetlands across the globe have long served as natural repositories for humanity’s toxic legacy, absorbing and retaining <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.03.004">hundreds to thousands of years’ worth of pollution</a>. </p>
<p>These swampy vaults have quietly been trapping air and water pollution for thousands of years, protecting the world from some of the worst effects of lead, mercury, copper, nickel and other poisonous materials. </p>
<p>Now, however, a combination of human disruptions and ever increasing wildfires threaten to open these vaults, unleashing their long dormant toxic contents upon the world. </p>
<h2>Threats to releasing toxic legacies</h2>
<p>The soil in many wetlands is composed of dead and decaying vegetation known as peat. Peat accumulates because perpetually sopping wetland conditions prevent the complete decomposition of dead vegetation. As these deposits accumulate, they form peatlands. </p>
<p>For centuries, peat has been drained, dried and extracted for heating fuel where wood is scarce. Though humans have long burned bricks of peat in their homes, climate change and wetland draining are drying entire wetlands, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01657-w">transforming them into perfect fuel for huge smoky wildfires</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Stacks of dried peat logs to be used for warmth and cooking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534443/original/file-20230627-18-49gaiz.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peat logs have long been used for warmth and cooking in communities across the globe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Colin McCarter)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Centuries of fallout from industrial processes such as smelting has deposited toxic metals in wetlands hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away from their point of origin. Human and industrial wastewater has, in places, added to this burden. </p>
<p>Wetlands have absorbed and stored these contaminants, holding them back from vulnerable aquatic ecosystems and saving humans from ingesting them. </p>
<p>Peat has a tremendous ability to capture and retain toxic metals by binding the metals to the peat itself through a process called adsorption. Once bound, the toxic metals are immobilized and pose little threat to the surrounding environment unless the peatland is disturbed, like from a wildfire.</p>
<h2>Wetlands and fire</h2>
<p>Human activities such as road building and resource extraction have seriously disrupted wetland ecosystems, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa136">leaving drained wetlands vulnerable to fire</a>, as Canadians saw in the catastrophic Fort McMurray, Alta., wildfire of 2016.</p>
<p>As climate change and human actions further degrade wetlands, the resulting wildfires threaten to return humanity’s toxic legacy. This cycle carries frightening implications for the health of people and the environment. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Copious amounts of smoke produced from a smouldering peat fire." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534429/original/file-20230627-23-goy4k4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fire burns away the peat as the resulting smoke is carried on the breeze.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Greg Verkaik)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 2015, Indonesia recorded about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/20/world/asia/indonesia-haze-smog-health.html">35,000 excess deaths after a major peatland fire</a>. Meanwhile, Canada and the United States are far from immune from exposure to peat fire smoke. In early June 2023, cities as far away as Washington, D.C., and New York were blanketed in thick smoke from peat fires in northern Canada, which is home to many of the world’s peatlands.</p>
<p>At the same time, climate change is accelerating the drying of peatlands everywhere, turning their huge stores of carbon into a carbon burden. Furthermore, as concentrated pollutants build up in wetlands, the accumulation of toxic metals is killing plants that act as their natural lid, allowing moisture to escape and speeding the conversion of more wetlands to tinderboxes. </p>
<p>Once ignited, peatland fires are difficult to contain as they can smoulder for weeks, months or even years. They produce copious amounts of smoke and ash, filling the air with microscopic particles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A smoke filled peatland forest from smouldering fires lurking just below the surface." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534431/original/file-20230627-15-5b1mn2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Peatland fires can smoulder underground for months re-emerging under the right conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Greg Verkaik)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even without metal pollution, these airborne particles can cause severe illness and death. Making a bad situation worse, toxic metals once safely stored in wetlands bind to these airborne particles and spread everywhere.</p>
<h2>Restoring wetlands</h2>
<p>As with many global environmental issues, it is easy to feel helpless to control such a huge and complex problem. Fortunately, nature-based solutions can have a substantial positive impact on keeping this toxic legacy from being released. </p>
<p>We can restore drying or dried-out wetlands back to their original state as functional ecosystems through, at the most basic level, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126793">preventing them from draining down canals and other human infrastructure</a>. Indeed, even without further intervention, re-wetting wetlands can reduce their risk of wildfire ignition. However, restoration must be managed carefully, to avoid flushing toxic metals from wetlands into neighbouring streams, rivers and lakes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/up-in-smoke-human-activities-are-fuelling-wildfires-that-burn-essential-carbon-sequestering-peatlands-202816">Up in smoke: Human activities are fuelling wildfires that burn essential carbon-sequestering peatlands</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To preserve wetland plants and return ecosystem functionality without releasing the stored toxic legacy, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126793">we need to bring back fire-resistant mosses such as <em>Sphagnum</em></a>. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2022.106874">Recent research shows that old-fashioned peat “transplants” may be effective</a>, though new restoration techniques in contaminated wetlands need to be further developed and tested. </p>
<p>Although ecosystem restoration can be costly in terms of time and money, actively restoring wetlands appears to be our best chance to defuse the ticking time-bomb that our pollution vaults have become. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acddfc">Preventing a pollution explosion demands urgent global research, investment and action</a>. The cost of doing nothing will certainly be much greater.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin McCarter receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Nipissing University, and the Canada Research Chair program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Waddington receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Blazing Star Environmental, McMaster University, Ganawenim Meshkiki, and Henvey Inlet Wind LP.</span></em></p>Peatlands safely store hundreds to thousands of years’ worth of humanity’s toxic legacy but climate change and physical disturbances are putting these pollution vaults, and us, at risk.Colin McCarter, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Arts and Science, Nipissing UniversityMike Waddington, Professor, School of Earth, Environment & Society, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2095712023-07-16T11:56:46Z2023-07-16T11:56:46ZJoining forces: How collaboration can help tackle Canada’s escalating wildfire threat<p>Wildfires have become a hot topic in Canada this year — and for good reason. Thousands of Canadians have been evacuated from their homes. Millions have experienced smoky skies and air quality advisories. More hectares of land in Canada were burned by <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-fires-map-air-quality-1.6871563">mid-June than in any previous year </a> since records began. </p>
<p>As our experiences with wildfires <a href="https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/number-wildfires-rise-50-2100-and-governments-are-not-prepared">become more and more common</a> in concert with <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65837040">changing climates</a>, one pressing question keeps cropping up: How do we manage wildfires more effectively and efficiently to minimize impacts on Canadians? </p>
<p>A part of the answer lies in how emergency response decisions are made.</p>
<p>Decisions made by those in charge of wildfire response can have a major impact on how quickly the fire is contained. The federal government has flagged <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/national-disaster-response-agency-1.6868209">disaster response as a national priority</a> and paved the way for a <a href="https://theconversation.com/canada-urgently-needs-a-fema-like-emergency-management-agency-207400">new disaster response agency</a> that could support stronger co-ordination and response to disasters across Canada.</p>
<p>As experts in management and governance (including disaster response, planning, policy and collaboration) we examined two major wildfires — the Fort McMurray, Alta. wildfire of 2016 and Sweden’s Västmanland wildfire of 2014 — and found that the key to minimizing the impacts of wildfires is effective collaboration.</p>
<h2>What does wildfire management look like?</h2>
<p>Most fires, when first identified, are addressed at the municipal or regional levels by local teams. When a fire escalates in size or severity, governments at the provincial or territorial levels <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/2017-mrgnc-mngmnt-frmwrk/index-en.aspx">take over management</a> roles. Resources at the federal level are engaged if this escalates further.</p>
<p>During the critical response phase of an ongoing wildfire emergency — where the fire is not considered contained — a wide range of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13518">resources and co-ordination</a> is required. This includes monitoring, communications, evacuation, logistics and firefighting efforts. </p>
<p>Each of these roles have different agencies, departments and organizations in charge. And those in charge during these volatile times need to quickly adapt to the shifting risks and effects associated with uncontrolled wildfires.</p>
<p>However, practically managing and co-ordinating this critical emergency response continues to be a major challenge.</p>
<p>In the <a href="https://open.alberta.ca/publications/may-2016-wood-buffalo-wildfire-post-incident-assessment-report">Fort McMurray wildfire</a> in 2016, a State of Local Emergency was declared when the fires were spotted seven kilometres away from the town. A Regional Emergency Operations Centre was then established to support the needs of the region in terms of emergency response. </p>
<p>But two days later, the fire grew to a size and severity that prompted the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/3031111/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-calls-for-2nd-highway-after-88k-near-misses-during-mass-evacuation/">evacuation of 88,000 people</a> and the highest operational level of emergency response engaged. </p>
<p>The wildfire management required a quick <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780429244308-2/upscaling-collaborative-crisis-management-daniel-nohrstedt-julia-baird-%C3%B6rjan-bodin-ryan-plummer-robert-summers">‘scaling up’</a> from regional to full provincial control. This included the active involvement of regional, municipal, provincial and federal resources including firefighters and evacuation supports.</p>
<p>Despite management efforts at levels from regional to federal, the fire ultimately burned more than 500,000 hectares and destroyed 2,400 structures including many homes.</p>
<h2>Minimizing wildfire impacts</h2>
<p>As we studied the Fort McMurray and Västmanland wildfires we looked closely at the role of collaboration in emergency response under conditions of urgency and uncertainty during major wildfires. We studied not only how people communicated with each other, but also the tasks they tackled and the connections between those tasks.</p>
<p>As Canadians and policy makers engage in nationwide conversations and new plans on emergency response, our research offers three key lessons from the past that could shape a safer future.</p>
<p><strong>1) Establishing the right connections</strong></p>
<p>Working together with various emergency response teams is critical to the success of its management. </p>
<p>However, it is not a matter of “the more collaboration, the better.” That strategy can decrease the effectiveness. Instead, it is critical to establish the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13518">‘right’ connections</a> between emergency managers.</p>
<p>Strategic collaborations enable organizations and decision-makers to co-ordinate their work across tasks that rely on each other in some way. For example, evacuation and logistics teams can work well with co-ordinated efforts as evacuation routes need to be organized in a way that leads to shelters for evacuees and vice versa.</p>
<p><strong>2) Building relationships in calmer times</strong></p>
<p>Relationships tend to be formed with supervisors, previous contacts, members of the same organization and others that are connected to existing contacts. While these ways of connecting can be useful, they may not be the ‘right’ collaborators in times of urgency.</p>
<p>The preparatory phase of emergency management must focus on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-019-01546-z">how — and with whom — connections are made</a>. Making purposeful efforts to build relationships and trust among those who will work on the same, or connected, tasks in non-emergency times can be very valuable in increasing effectiveness and efficiency of emergency response.</p>
<p>An emergency manager from Alberta we interviewed stated that response happens at the “speed of trust,” where trust is assumed and second-guessing decisions is not an option. The only way to do that is to build relationships ahead of the emergency.</p>
<p><strong>3) Structure and flexibility</strong></p>
<p>Structured systems, like the <a href="https://www.alberta.ca/incident-command-system-alberta.aspx">Incident Command System</a> (ICS), are used across Canada to help manage emergency incidents and planned events. These systems set out who does what, and how, in clear terms. </p>
<p>Sweden’s approach is much more flexible and self-organized. They operate on the principle of “responsibility” that supports those in management roles retaining those same roles in times of emergency. However, Sweden has no planned approach to co-ordinate across multiple organizations and agencies in emergency situations.</p>
<p>We found that combination of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102729">structure and flexibility</a> is needed for effective emergency management. </p>
<p>Structure, like in the ICS system, provides strength in having a clear framework for how to co-ordinate among those who do not usually interact. Flexibility, like in Sweden’s system, creates opportunities to work with trusted others. We advise creating more opportunities within a structured system for strategic relationship building.</p>
<h2>Co-ordination is not enough</h2>
<p>In the wake of disasters, emergency response teams working in different capacities and different levels <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102729">need to agree on goals and working procedures for the specific scenario</a>, and not only on improving co-ordination.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A fire crew cuts a fire line across a boggy area." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537527/original/file-20230714-21802-ymm8xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537527/original/file-20230714-21802-ymm8xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537527/original/file-20230714-21802-ymm8xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537527/original/file-20230714-21802-ymm8xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537527/original/file-20230714-21802-ymm8xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537527/original/file-20230714-21802-ymm8xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537527/original/file-20230714-21802-ymm8xc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Shifting authority from local emergency managers can be difficult, especially in times of uncertainty, like wildfires, that leave no room for delayed decision-making.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/The Duluth News-Tribune, Bob King)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These agreements are especially critical in efficiently <a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780429244308-2/upscaling-collaborative-crisis-management-daniel-nohrstedt-julia-baird-%C3%B6rjan-bodin-ryan-plummer-robert-summers">scaling up</a> crisis management from a local level to a broader and more collaborative one. This can be challenging as local emergency managers are connected to the place in which they work and are often the first to take control.</p>
<p>This shift, or scaling up, is further challenged by uncertainty. Wildfires are unpredictable and the situation can change quickly, leaving no room for delayed decisions. Timing is essential to mobilize resources when most urgently needed.</p>
<p>Emergency managers should consider the art and timing of scaling up — managing the shifts in authority and uncertainty — by building relationships that support agreement and collaborative skill-sets of those likely to be involved in future emergency response situations.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julia Baird receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Angela Guerrero receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Swedish Research Council (FORMAS).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Nohrstedt receives funding from the Swedish Research Council and the Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Örjan Bodin receives funding from the Swedish Research Council (FORMAS) and the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert J Summers receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and the University of Alberta.
</span></em></p>Effective collaboration may be a key to minimizing impacts of the growing wildfire season in Canada.Julia Baird, Associate Professor and Canada Research Chair in Human Dimensions of Water Resources and Water Resilience, Brock UniversityAngela Guerrero, Research fellow, Faculty of Engineering, Queensland University of TechnologyDaniel Nohrstedt, Professor of Political Science, Research Coordinator in Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala UniversityÖrjan Bodin, Professor in Environmental Science/Sustainability Science, Stockholm UniversityRobert J Summers, Director, School of Urban and Regional Planning, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1984592023-07-12T17:31:08Z2023-07-12T17:31:08Z‘Zombie fires’ are occurring more frequently in boreal forests, but their impacts remain uncertain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528408/original/file-20230525-29-kwpzjc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4000%2C3000&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Smoke rising from an active fire in the Northwest Territories.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Sander Veraverbeke)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/zombie-fires-are-occurring-more-frequently-in-boreal-forests-but-their-impacts-remain-uncertain" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>“Zombie fires” are fires that ignite in one fire season, smoulder through the winter months under the snow, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00645-5">re-emerge early in the spring before lightning and human caused ignitions begin in earnest</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
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<p>Northern fire managers prefer the term “overwintering fires,” which is more technically precise. It also avoids stoking the pervasive negative perceptions regarding wildfire, which in the boreal is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa9092">an essential agent of forest renewal and health</a>. </p>
<p>But it is hard to resist using a term with such strong communication messaging. Are zombie fires something to worry about? As a team of scientists who have dedicated our careers to understanding changing boreal fire regimes, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/sep-10-our-summer-in-the-field-special-1.6577787">we decided to find out for ourselves</a>.</p>
<h2>Unusual fire behaviour</h2>
<p>Fire behaviour refers to the way a fire burns. This seemingly unusual fire behaviour was previously of limited concern as overwintering fires are hard to detect and, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/a-growing-force-of-fiery-zombies-threatens-cold-northern-forests/">we think, were relatively infrequent</a>. As such, we know very little about these fires or their potential impacts. </p>
<p>However, as rapid climate warming drives larger, longer and more severe wildfire seasons across the boreal biome, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03437-y">overwintering fires are becoming more common</a>, and <a href="https://polarjournal.ch/en/2021/06/07/heat-waves-wild-fires-and-zombie-fires-in-the-arctic/">concerns by fire managers and scientists</a> alike are increasing. </p>
<p>Reignitions from overwintering fires initiate the fire season earlier than usual, adding additional demands to already strained fire crews and firefighting resources. </p>
<p>For example, the exceptionally early and intense fire season this year in Alberta may have been fuelled in part by early ignitions from overwintering fires given the late season burning throughout western Canada last fall.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1582868467812044801"}"></div></p>
<p>Clearly, more research is needed to understand exactly how overwintering fires currently or will contribute to these severe fire seasons.</p>
<h2>Remote fire study</h2>
<p>Last summer, our team visited sites in the southern Northwest Territories that had ignited in 2014, experienced overwintering fire, and reignited in 2015. These were paired with neighbouring sites from the same 2014 fire that had experienced only a single season fire. </p>
<p>This work required an interdisciplinary team consisting of remote-sensing experts who identified and guided us to our sites, soil carbon experts who developed the sampling protocols necessary to quantify differences in soil carbon losses in single-season and overwintering fire locations, and forest ecologists who quantified the impact of overwintering fires on forest structure and composition. </p>
<p>With these locations in hand and tremendous support from our partners in the Government of the Northwest Territories, we collected the first field data on overwintering fires. All potential sites were incredibly remote and could only be accessed by helicopter — our team was able to use one that was on standby for fire duty as it was a relatively quiet fire season. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-we-fight-the-alberta-and-b-c-wildfires-we-must-also-plan-for-future-disasters-205818">As we fight the Alberta and B.C. wildfires, we must also plan for future disasters</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Carbon emissions</h2>
<p>There are concerns about the potential ecological and carbon impacts of these fires, but we currently have no data. The most socially relevant concern relates to carbon emissions and potential feedbacks to climate warming.</p>
<p>Much of the boreal biome is characterized by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2325">deep, peat soils created by cold, poorly drained conditions</a>. These conditions slow decomposition and support the accumulation of plant material, often peat moss or <em>Sphagnum</em>, as thick layers of carbon rich soil sitting atop the underlying parent material. In some places, this can be many meters thick. </p>
<p>Boreal peatlands are thought to store <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.02.004">as much as 30 per cent</a> of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon stocks. As such, threats to these regions have the potential to compound already rapid increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations that underlie global warming. </p>
<p>When these thick, organic soils are dry, they can support the deep and sustained smouldering necessary for overwintering behaviour. Scientists expect that these peatland environments <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-020-00645-5">will be home to most overwintering fires</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/peatlands-keep-a-lot-of-carbon-out-of-earths-atmosphere-but-that-could-end-with-warming-and-development-151364">Peatlands keep a lot of carbon out of Earth's atmosphere, but that could end with warming and development</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>Wildfires are also threatening the resilience of boreal forests, with deeper burning and more frequent fires leading to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024872118">forest compositional changes, and in some cases the conversion of forest to non-forested land covers</a>. </p>
<h2>Failure to renew</h2>
<p>The second major concern relates to the forest recovery outcomes in forest stands that experience overwintering fires, which in some cases burn twice in as many years. We expect that zombie fires will lead more commonly to regeneration failure — conversion of forest to non-forest — for three main reasons. </p>
<p>First, the continued or repeated heating of tree seeds on site <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s13595-022-01166-4">could lead to reduced or absent seed sources to support tree regeneration</a>. </p>
<p>Second, heating or combustion of belowground rooting structures (called rhizomes) that support rapid resprouting post-fire could slow the rate of ground vegetation recovery or completely alter the species that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0056033">regenerate in these areas</a>. </p>
<p>Finally, the continued smouldering of peat soil would lead to deeper burning which profoundly alters the seedbed conditions with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-004-0042-x">implications for forest regeneration processes</a>.</p>
<p>Changes in forest type or failure for forests to recover affects wildlife habitat availability among other impacts, an issue of increasing concern, particularly in the context of <a href="https://www.registrelep-sararegistry.gc.ca/virtual_sara/files/plans/rs_boreal_caribou_revised_0811_eng.pdf">declining caribou populations across North America</a>. </p>
<h2>Remote sensing advances</h2>
<p>These are all predictions, however. No direct measures existed from overwintering fires until the summer of 2022, as these fires are hard to detect and access and previously of limited concern to managers. </p>
<p>However, advances in space-borne remote sensing have allowed the detection of early spring reignitions, which when combined with information on fire perimeters from the previous year, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03437-y">support accurate detection and mapping of overwintering fires that reignite</a>. </p>
<p>Our team took advantage of these tools to identify the locations of overwintering fire sites that reignited in 2015 following the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/2014-n-w-t-fire-season-report-what-you-need-to-know-1.3061930">record breaking 2014 fire season in the Northwest Territories</a>. </p>
<p>Our work will shed light on where and how these fires are supported in the boreal landscape. It will also lead to important insights into carbon losses from this fascinating — although poorly understood — fire behaviour. These include the potential for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1474-y">legacy carbon loss</a> and altered forest regeneration outcomes, which have implications for future fire regimes and the health of the boreal forest.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Baltzer receives funding from the Canada Research Chairs program, Canada's Natural Science and Engineering Research Council, Polar Knowledge Canada, Global Water Futures, and the Government of the Northwest Territories to investigate impacts of climate warming induced disturbances in northern forests. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Merritt R. Turetsky receives funding from the National Science Foundation, NASA, the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Lab, and the Multidisciplinary University Research Initiatives (MURI) program. These research grants and contracts support fundamental research on the response of northern high latitude ecosystems to permafrost thaw and wildfire.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sander Veraverbeke receives funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) through a Vidi grant (grant no. 016.Vidi.189.070) and the European Research Council (ERC) through a consolidator grant under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant no. 101000987) to investigate relationships between climate change and northern fires.</span></em></p>Zombie fires smoulder through the winter and reignite in the early spring. How these fires behave is not well understood, but they can contribute to an earlier and longer fire season.Jennifer Baltzer, Professor and Canada Research Chair in Forests and Global Change, Wilfrid Laurier UniversityMerritt R. Turetsky, Professor, University of Colorado BoulderSander Veraverbeke, Associate Professor, Faculty of Science, Earth and Climate, Vrije Universiteit AmsterdamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2030912023-07-05T15:19:40Z2023-07-05T15:19:40ZCan the boreal forest be used to concretely fight climate change?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/519410/original/file-20230404-15-3fzimf.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1920%2C1422&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What strategies are the best to make forests more resilient and better adapted to new climate conditions?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Claude Villeneuve)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and deforestation are the causes of <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">global climate warming exceeding 1°C over the past 100 years</a>. At the current rate, <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-ii/">this warming will most likely climb to 2°C before 2100</a>, causing climate disruption around the world. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
<hr>
<p>To address this threat, all means for reducing emissions and increasing global CO2 removals <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/">must be implemented rapidly and in a sustained manner</a>. Towards that end, halting deforestation and significant <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/afforestation">afforestation</a> are widely recognized as effective and inexpensive tools for combatting climate change, since trees capture CO2 and store it in the wood, roots and soil. </p>
<p>This is what prompted the Canadian government to include planting two billion trees between 2020 and 2030 on its list of <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/climate-plan/climate-plan-overview/actions-healthy-environment-economy.html">actions to be taken to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050</a>.</p>
<p>But is the solution really that simple? Can planting trees help us solve the climate crisis? </p>
<p>We are professor-researchers in the Sciences fondamentales Department at the Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC). We are working within the research infrastructure <a href="http://carboneboreal.uqac.ca">Carbone boréal</a> carbon offset program to try to answer this question.</p>
<h2>From global to local</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="person measures a small fir tree" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517976/original/file-20230328-26-g44cc5.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">On what land can new trees reasonably be planted while avoiding land use conflicts?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Claude Villeneuve)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Prospective studies on the evolution of forests in a context of climate change are based on models applied to plots of land larger than 100 square kilometres. This area is roughly the equivalent of half of the area of Québec’s Île d'Orléans, or a little less than a quarter of the island of Montréal.</p>
<p>But what happens on a smaller scale, depending on local characteristics and the tree species actually present in the stands? How will the trees react to the new climatic conditions? How will the forest disturbance regime evolve? What strategies can be recommended to make forests more resilient and better adapted to new climate conditions? What is the likelihood that the projected additional carbon stocks will be available in 2050? On what land can new trees be reasonably planted while avoiding land use conflicts? </p>
<p>These are the kinds of questions that motivated a team of UQAC researchers to launch the Carbone boréal project in 2008.</p>
<h2>An original infrastructure</h2>
<p>In the boreal forest, there are large areas (estimated to be 7 per cent of the exploitable boreal forest in Québec) that have low tree densities. This characteristic qualifies them as non-forests, according to the <a href="https://www.fao.org/3/ca9825en/ca9825en.pdf">definition of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)</a>. </p>
<p>These open areas, where more than three-quarters of the vegetation consists of lichens and Ericaceae, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/04-1621">are the result of successive natural disturbances</a>, such as forest fires or insect pests. Because of a lack of seeds and degraded soil conditions, these non-forests do not re-densify over time. Indeed, depending on the type of fire that burns on the surface or deep down, the organic matter of the soil will be preserved or completely burnt. That creates less favourable conditions for seeds to become established as seedlings.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517979/original/file-20230328-26-eq8eho.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Non-forests are open territories, where more than three-quarters of the vegetation consists of lichens and Ericaceae, which are the result of successive natural disturbances.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Claude Villeneuve)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This process of natural deforestation can be reversed through interventions such as <a href="https://academic.oup.com/forestry/article/86/1/91/535105">scarification (shallow soil turning)</a>, either followed by tree planting, or not. </p>
<p><a href="https://carboneboreal.uqac.ca/en/home/">Carbone boréal</a> is a research infrastructure that is unique in the world for its objectives, approach and funding. It was created using three hypotheses: </p>
<ul>
<li>it is possible to plant trees in areas considered unproductive for forestry and to grow forests there;</li>
<li>the amount of carbon stored in these new habitats is greater than it would be if this action weren’t taken; and </li>
<li>this additional carbon uptake can be quantified and offered to the public as a credible tool to be used to offset greenhouse gas emissions.<br></li>
</ul>
<p>After 15 years of research and over 1.5 million trees planted and verified, these three hypotheses have been proven and the plantings carried out are beginning to answer new research questions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="small fir plant" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/517977/original/file-20230328-15-8kmaei.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It is possible to plant trees in areas considered unproductive for forestry and grow forests there.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Claude Villeneuve)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Questions and answers</h2>
<p>Field measurements taken in our plantations every five years have demonstrated <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378112722005953">an unexpected growth performance of jack pine and tamarack in the early years of growth, as well as a higher rate of carbon fixation than predicted by models</a>. </p>
<p>We also demonstrated the importance of site selection in optimizing carbon sequestration and <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/1/59">developed new equations to assess tree biomass using non-destructive measurements</a>. Further work is underway to quantify soil carbon loss from scarification and net additional carbon accumulation over 20 years. Starting from the perspective of a circular economy, we are investigating the fertilization potential of industrial byproducts, such as paper mill biosolids, and the potential productivity and resilience gains of plantations with assortments of species. </p>
<p>A key concern raised by climate models is how afforestation in the boreal zone actually affects the climate. Although boreal forests absorb CO2 (which has a cooling effect on climate), they decrease the fraction of solar energy that is directly reflected back to space compared to open areas. This phenomenon could create local warming and reduce the overall climate benefit of the additional CO2 capture by the trees. But what is the real magnitude of this effect? Does it vary according to latitude, tree species and plantation age? Our team will tackle these questions in the winter of 2023.</p>
<p>In 2024, with more than two million trees planted in research facilities on public and private land, Carbone boréal will account for an area of 1,000 hectares (10 square kilometres, five times the size of Mount Royal Park in Montréal) dedicated to long-term research for UQAC. These trees will capture more than 4,000 tons of CO2 each year by 2030. </p>
<p>This is a concrete and original way to better understand the role of the boreal forest on climate change and to experiment with ways to adapt it to its new conditions.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203091/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Claude Villeneuve has received funding from MFFP, MAPAQ, FRQNT, NRC, etc.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxime Paré has received funding from several organizations such NSERC and FRQNT.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Faubert has received funding from Mitacs, MAPAQ, MFFP, etc.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Marty ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Can planting trees help us solve the climate crisis? Probably, but to what extent?Claude Villeneuve, Professeur titulaire Chaire en éco-conseil spécialiste des changements climatiques, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Charles Marty, Adjunct professor, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Maxime Paré, Professeur chercheur en agriculture nordique, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Patrick Faubert, Professor - Industrial ecology and climate change mitigation, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1913112023-06-20T19:37:11Z2023-06-20T19:37:11ZFor some fire-loving insects, wildfires provide the best breeding grounds<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/for-some-fire-loving-insects--wildfires-provide-the-best-breeding-grounds" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>With the summer solstice and first official day of summer on June 21, hot and dry conditions have already given rise to a <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9764583/canada-worst-wildfire-season-21st-century/">very active fire season across Canada</a>. </p>
<p>The smoke from these fires has drifted great distances, disrupting activities and causing a nuisance and breathing hazards in communities far from its source. </p>
<p>But, if you happen to be an insect adapted to wildfires, tracing the smoke back to its source is what you were born to do.</p>
<p>Many insects are attracted to wildfires and lay their eggs in the tissues of fire-killed trees. Some of these insects are wildfire specialists and colonize the area while the fire is still actively burning.</p>
<h2>Adaptations to forest fires</h2>
<p>Known as pyrophilic insects because of their affinity for wildfires, these insects locate and navigate to the fire using their highly sensitive sense of smell. The smoke <a href="https://doi.org/10.1117/12.882421">emitted from forest fires also provide important clues</a> about the tree species fuelling the fire and whether, or not, the trees are suitable hosts for the insects. </p>
<p>As a testament to their co-evolution with fire, some species, like the Australian fire beetle, have even evolved <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s001140050775">sensory organs capable of detecting infrared light</a> emitted from wildfires. These infrared sensors help the insects contend with the unpredictable and dangerous conditions of a typical wildfire, allowing them to avoid <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0192865">hot spots that might be lethal</a>. </p>
<p>About 50 to 60 known insect species are pyrophilic. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120629">This list</a> is made up mostly of beetles and flies but also includes a few true bugs and a single species of wasp called the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/aesa/60.6.1291">cedar wood wasp</a> (<em>Syntexis libocedrii</em>). </p>
<p>Little is known about their role in the ecosystem but some pyrophilic species help initiate recovery after the fire by breaking down decaying trees. Others are associated with pyrophilic fungi that are rarely found outside of recent burns. </p>
<p>Although a recent study suggests that some of these fungi are already <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.funeco.2019.100870">present in a dormant state</a> when the fire erupts through, pyrophilic insects may also play a role in <a href="https://www.frames.gov/catalog/36861">transmission of pyrophilic fungi</a> to burns. These fungi provide a habitat for many insect species and assist in cycling nutrients that helps facilitate regrowth in the burn. </p>
<h2>Heat-sterilized soils</h2>
<p>Why these insects are the first to arrive at the fire only to disappear shortly after is also not well understood. However, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4213">new research</a> suggests that this peculiar behaviour may have evolved to increase offspring survival. </p>
<p>Forest soils are normally chalk-full of small micro-arthropods like mites that readily devour insect eggs. But the extreme heat from wildfires <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00328-5">dramatically reduces invertebrate numbers in soils</a>, effectively sterilizing the soil. </p>
<p>Pyrophilic insects capitalize on this short window of opportunity and lay their eggs in the heat-sterilized soil before mites and other invertebrates recolonize the burn.</p>
<p>This temporary reprieve from egg predation explains part of why pyrophilic insects race to the fire. Comparing reproductive outputs in burnt and unburnt soils, the new study showed that this strategy can increase the number of offspring by 80 per cent.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.18195/issn.0312-3162.30(1).2015.001-011">Other studies</a> have also noted that the extreme heat and smoke of the active fire helps protect adults from predation during reproduction and egg-laying. </p>
<p>But once this window of opportunity closes, pyrophilic insects must seek out new fires and freshly burnt areas. This explains why, within just a year or two after the fire, the insects disappear from the burnt area.</p>
<h2>Unpredictable habitat</h2>
<p>The unpredictability of wildfires and the need to quickly locate them means pyrophilic insects are likely impacted when humans suppress wildfires. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jqs.1242">Fossil evidence of pyrophilic insects</a> from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0031-0182(00)00188-7">regions like Britain where they are now rooted out of or extirpated</a>, for example, demonstrates the impact of human-induced changes to fire regimes.</p>
<p>Changes in land-use, fire suppression and the development of large industries like forestry and agriculture have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00345.1">reduced wildfires in many regions</a>. At the same time, the current fire season as well as future projections of <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5835">fire behaviour</a> under climate-warming suggests that available habitat for pyrophilic insects is likely to increase. </p>
<p>If the spring fire season in Canada is any indication, pyrophilic insects will continue to thrive well into summer.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191311/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aaron Bell receives funding from the Government of Canada and Weston Family Foundation. </span></em></p>If the spring fire season in Canada is any indication, fire-loving pyrophilic insects will continue to thrive well into summer.Aaron Bell, Researcher, PhD Candidate, Biology, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2075772023-06-16T16:09:40Z2023-06-16T16:09:40ZCanada wildfires: an area larger than the Netherlands has been burned so far this year – here’s what is causing them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532416/original/file-20230616-25-w67f88.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C26%2C5997%2C3968&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">British Columbia, Canada.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wildfire-service-helicopter-flying-over-bc-2219974655">EB Adventure Photography/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Over the past few weeks, <a href="https://www.ciffc.ca/">wildfires have ravaged large swathes of Canada</a>. The fires have burned millions of hectares of land, displaced tens of thousands of people and disrupted the lives of millions. </p>
<p>Smoke from fires in the Canadian province of Quebec blew down into the US, turning the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/09/canada-wildfires-smoke-new-york-map-pictures">New York skyline orange</a>. This episode of unprecedented air pollution has drawn global attention to the fires. </p>
<p>But Canada has had over 2,000 wildfires already this year. More than <a href="https://ciffc.net/statistics">400 are currently tearing</a> through many parts of British Columbia and Alberta in the country’s west, as well as Nova Scotia, Quebec and parts of Ontario in the east. Around one-third of these fires are burning in the eastern part of the country, a region that is not used to dealing with large fires. </p>
<p>The total area burned is also striking. An area larger than the Netherlands has already burned so far this year (more than 5 million hectares), prompting Canadian officials to declare that this summer’s wildfire season is set to become the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65816466">worst on record</a>. </p>
<p>Experts caution that climate change and human activities will likely make wildfire seasons like this <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2023/06/09/our-new-normal-as-climate-change-exacerbates-wildfires-canada-faces-a-fiery-future.html">normal in the future</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532384/original/file-20230616-21-wwkl4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A satellite image showing wildfires burning across Quebec." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532384/original/file-20230616-21-wwkl4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532384/original/file-20230616-21-wwkl4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532384/original/file-20230616-21-wwkl4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532384/original/file-20230616-21-wwkl4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532384/original/file-20230616-21-wwkl4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532384/original/file-20230616-21-wwkl4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532384/original/file-20230616-21-wwkl4t.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">June 13, 2023: wildfires burning across Quebec.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151430/fires-burn-across-quebec">Lauren Dauphin/NASA Earth Observatory</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Unusual timing, size, and location</h2>
<p>In western Canada, wildfires are a <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/wildland-fires-insects-disturbances/why-forests-need-fires-insects-and-diseases/13081">natural and common part of the forest ecosystem</a>. They remove debris and undergrowth from the forest floor, open up the forest canopy to sunlight, kill insects and diseases that harm trees and add valuable nutrients to the ground. Tree species including <a href="https://forestryandland.gov.scot/learn/trees/lodgepole-pine">lodgepole</a> and <a href="https://www.michigan.gov/dnr/education/michigan-species/plants-trees/jackpine">jack pines</a> grow rapidly after a fire.</p>
<p>But this year’s fire season is unique because it is not isolated to a particular province. Eastern provinces like Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Quebec – which typically have wetter and cooler climates than in Canada’s west – are seeing <a href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/report/graphs">many more fires</a> now than in previous years. In Quebec alone, over 400 wildfires have been reported so far this year – twice the historical average.</p>
<p>The size and timing of the fires has also <a href="https://ciffc.net/statistics">surpassed all previous records</a>. The area of land burned by wildfires in the past seven weeks has already reached the ten-year average for the whole season (spanning from April to October). This amount of burning is usually only reached <a href="https://ciffc.net/statistics">much later in the year</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531970/original/file-20230614-17-5wat95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph showing the total area of land burned in Canada this year." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531970/original/file-20230614-17-5wat95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531970/original/file-20230614-17-5wat95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531970/original/file-20230614-17-5wat95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531970/original/file-20230614-17-5wat95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531970/original/file-20230614-17-5wat95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531970/original/file-20230614-17-5wat95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531970/original/file-20230614-17-5wat95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The total area of land burned by wildfires from the start of the 2023 season in Canada compared to the ten-year average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/report/graphs">Natural Resources Canada</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s causing the fires?</h2>
<p>A particularly warm and dry spring across much of Canada has set the scene for the current wildfire situation. Many of the country’s provinces are <a href="https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor/drought-analysis">deep in drought</a>. In May this year, parts of Nova Scotia reported <a href="https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/agricultural-production/weather/canadian-drought-monitor/current-drought-conditions">less than 50%</a> of their average monthly precipitation.</p>
<p>May was also one of Canada’s hottest on record. Heatwaves pushed temperatures well above normal for this time of the year in <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/june-2023-weather-heat-b-c-1.6862423">British Columbia</a> and in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/why-are-wildfires-raging-canadas-eastern-nova-scotia-province-2023-06-02/">Nova Scotia</a>. In Squamish (a town north of Vancouver), a <a href="https://bc.ctvnews.ca/heat-wave-continues-17-temperature-records-broken-across-b-c-1.6398103">temperature of 32.4°C</a> on May 13 surpassed the town’s previous record of 29.6°C that was set in May 2018.</p>
<p>Heatwaves like this were seen in <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/siberian-wildfires-now-bigger-fires-world-combined/story?id=79422602">Siberia in 2020</a>, where fires burned around 62,000 square miles. At the time, Siberia’s fires were larger than all the fires raging around the world combined. </p>
<p><a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/wildfire-response/what-causes-wildfire">Warm and dry conditions</a> reduce moisture levels. This dries out vegetation such as trees, grass and peat (which act as a fuel for the fires), creating the perfect conditions for fires to ignite and burn more easily. </p>
<h2>The role of climate change</h2>
<p>There is little doubt that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01902-4">climate change has played an important role</a> in the blazes across Canada. Extreme heat is made much more likely by climate change and since the mid-20th century, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/environmental-indicators/temperature-change.html">temperatures in Canada</a> have been increasing faster than in many other parts of the world. </p>
<p>Between 1948 and 2022, the average annual temperature in Canada <a href="https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/eccc/documents/pdf/cesindicators/temperature-change/2023/temperature-change-en-2023.pdf">increased by 1.9°C</a>. That is roughly twice the increase observed for Earth as a whole.</p>
<p>As the country warms, the chance of prolonged droughts and stronger heatwaves will increase. This will create even better conditions for <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/">wildfires to ignite and spread</a>, potentially leading to <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018EF001050">longer and more intense wildfire seasons</a> in the future. </p>
<p>Lightning also occurs more frequently when it is hotter. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1259100">Research</a> estimates that for every degree rise in global average air temperature, the number of lightning strikes will increase by around 12%. Lightning is a common ignition source for wildfires in many parts of Canada.</p>
<p>However, these more intense fires are not entirely the fault of climate change. The way humans now use forests also plays a role.</p>
<p>Regular controlled burns have been used by indigenous groups in Canada for <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40725-022-00168-9">thousands of years</a>. It has proved an <a href="https://www.facetsjournal.com/doi/full/10.1139/facets-2021-0062">effective way of managing forests</a> and reducing the accumulation of debris and undergrowth in the forest understory.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A forest on fire." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532410/original/file-20230616-15-bp3zen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532410/original/file-20230616-15-bp3zen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532410/original/file-20230616-15-bp3zen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532410/original/file-20230616-15-bp3zen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532410/original/file-20230616-15-bp3zen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532410/original/file-20230616-15-bp3zen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532410/original/file-20230616-15-bp3zen.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Controlled forest burning in Sodermanland, Sweden.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/controlled-forest-burning-sweden-sodermanland-1302118882">Njunjes/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But over the past century, fire suppression has been the norm in many parts of Canada. The <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40725-022-00168-9">exclusion of fire</a> in certain areas has disrupted the natural fire cycle. Additionally, commercial planting of tree species that are <a href="https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=30276">less tolerant for fire</a> such as balsam fir and white spruce has further contributed to the increased risk of fires.</p>
<p>Certain provinces, including British Columbia, are now beginning to embrace <a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/our-natural-resources/forests/wildland-fires-insects-disturbances/forest-fires/fire-management/13157">traditional practices of controlled burns</a> as a means of forest management. But <a href="https://www.facetsjournal.com/doi/full/10.1139/facets-2021-0062#abstract">challenges remain</a>. The exclusion of fire for so long, coupled with increasingly extreme heat, has led to the emergence of extreme wildfire seasons like the one we are seeing in Canada today. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Iván Villaverde Canosa receives funding from the University of Leeds. </span></em></p>Canada has had over 2,000 wildfires already this year – here’s why.Iván Villaverde Canosa, PhD Candidate in Geography, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1898572023-06-08T21:46:07Z2023-06-08T21:46:07ZThe ‘good fire’: Prescribed burning can prevent catastrophic wildfires in the future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531026/original/file-20230608-19-tdh1r3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=143%2C413%2C5847%2C3574&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fire, in its proper place, is a renewing force — one that can reduce the probability of catastrophic fire.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Angie Li)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Roaring flames, burned-out houses and cars, hazy air and orange skies are all around us. Already this year, millions of hectares have been torched by more than <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9751667/canada-wildfires-outlook/">2,200 wildfires</a> in Canada. </p>
<p>In the midst of another unprecedented fire season, it is easy to see fire as a destructive force to be controlled at all costs. </p>
<p>Through more than <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/weve-been-fighting-forest-fires-wrong-for-100-years-2013-1">100 years of aggressive fire suppression</a>, we have been conditioned to fear and demonize fire. From an ecological point of view, however, fire is a normal and often beneficial process. </p>
<p>Today, small but active groups of ecologists and land managers on the Canadian Prairies are <a href="https://news.usask.ca/articles/colleges/2022/usask-research-protecting-endangered-species-and-habitats.php">using fire to renew and rejuvenate grassland ecosystems</a>, enhance biological diversity and even to prevent catastrophic wildfire. </p>
<h2>Good fires</h2>
<p>The blackened ground following a grass fire may look devastating, but looks can be deceiving. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2257990">healthy grassland, much of the plant tissue is below ground</a>, well-protected from the heat of the fire. </p>
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<img alt="Prairie crocus flowers with singed petals" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530952/original/file-20230608-19-cd27ad.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530952/original/file-20230608-19-cd27ad.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530952/original/file-20230608-19-cd27ad.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530952/original/file-20230608-19-cd27ad.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530952/original/file-20230608-19-cd27ad.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530952/original/file-20230608-19-cd27ad.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/530952/original/file-20230608-19-cd27ad.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Prairie crocus flowers with petals singed by a prescribed fire the day before.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Eric Lamb)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>Plants quickly resprout from these underground stems, taking advantage of the newly opened space and nutrients from the ash. For some plant species, chemical signals in the smoke and ash can even be a trigger to germinate.</p>
<p>Grazers such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.12">cattle and bison will seek out burned areas</a> to take advantage of the high-quality forage that grows back. Plant diversity is often higher post-fire, and burned areas offer important habitat for many wildlife species. </p>
<p>Finally, fire removes litter, dead plant material from past seasons. Most grass fires spread through dry litter; removing this accumulated fuel can form a <a href="https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/firebreak">firebreak</a>, protecting the land against future catastrophic wildfire. </p>
<h2>Fire suppression is not always good</h2>
<p>Indigenous Peoples, ecologists and conservationists have long recognized the importance of fire within grassland ecosystems, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15961-y">decades of active suppression have left most of Canada in a fire deficit</a>.</p>
<p>The reasons for fire suppression are complex and include concerns for public safety, protection of infrastructure and a view that it is a “waste” to burn grass that could otherwise be fed to cattle. </p>
<p>We must recognize that the history of fire suppression stems from real concerns. <a href="https://www.producer.com/news/several-hundred-head-of-livestock-killed-by-wildfires/">The consequences of uncontrolled wildfire can be devastating</a>, and ranchers who depend on rangelands — grasslands, shrublands, woodlands, wetlands and deserts that are grazed by domestic livestock or wild animals — to feed their livestock generally face a decline in productivity for one to three years post-fire.</p>
<p>But at the same time, we need to replace the fear of fire with respect for fire and the respectful use of fire as a tool. </p>
<h2>Renewing ecosystems with fire</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-indigenous-burning-practices-can-help-curb-the-biodiversity-crisis-165422">Indigenous Peoples have long used cultural burning for a wide variety of purposes, including controlling their landscape and improving the abundance of preferred plant species</a>. From a western science perspective, we call this “prescribed fire,” or the carefully planned use of fire under controlled and safe conditions to achieve a particular ecosystem management goal. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Indigenous Peoples have long used cultural burning for improving the abundance of local plant species.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The goals of prescribed fire can range from the simple ones like reducing wildfire risk through fuel reduction to complex goals that include the removal of an invasive species. In all cases the goal is a healthier ecosystem. </p>
<p>Prescribed fire is extensively used <a href="https://www.ksre.k-state.edu/news/stories/2021/03/patch-burning-offsets-carbon-emissions.html">in the United States, particularly in tallgrass prairie</a>. In Canada, outside of large government organizations such as Parks Canada, prescribed fire is more rarely used.</p>
<h2>Training and collaboration guide prescribed fires</h2>
<p>The barriers to more extensive use of prescribed fire in Canada include the lack of trained personnel and equipment, insurance and liability concerns and inter-organizational challenges such as differing training standards. </p>
<p>In 2018 and 2019, multiple organizations, including the Meewasin Valley Authority and University of Saskatchewan, came together to assist the Nature Conservancy of Canada to conduct <a href="https://www.natureconservancy.ca/en/blog/archive/burning-for-change.html">four small prescribed fires at their Old Man on His Back Prairie and Heritage Conservation Area in Saskatchewan.</a> </p>
<p>The fires were a part of a research project led by my <a href="https://research-groups.usask.ca/saskatchewan-plant-community-ecology-lab/">University of Saskatchewan research group</a> examining how plants, bison and cattle would respond to small burned patches in mixed-grass prairie.</p>
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<p>Despite the challenging logistics, we found that formalizing how our organizations worked together would help make collaborative fires easier, allowing new groups with less experience to begin using fire. The success of this project led to establishment of <a href="http://www.grasslandfire.ca/">the Canadian Prairies Prescribed Fire Exchange (CPPFE)</a>. </p>
<p>The CPPFE is an organization based on the American “<a href="https://www.conservationgateway.org/CONSERVATIONPRACTICES/FIRELANDSCAPES/HABITATPROTECTIONANDRESTORATION/TRAINING/TRAININGEXCHANGES/Pages/fire-training-exchanges.aspx">training exchange” model</a> where small organizations collaborate to improve training and practice. It aims to be a hub for grassland-prescribed fire knowledge in Western Canada. </p>
<h2>The future of fire</h2>
<p>It can be hard to maintain the perspective of “good fire” when our <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2223757891835">news is filled with images of devastation</a>. </p>
<p>In the aftermath of a bad wildfire season, prescribed fire practitioners often get pushback when proposing fires. This comes externally from the public and internally from risk-adverse management. </p>
<p>Building a culture where fire is respected rather than feared is essential to maintain resilient landscapes. We must remember that fire, in its proper place, is a renewing force — one that can reduce the probability of catastrophic fire.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Lamb receives funding from the National Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC), Mitacs, and the Nature Conservancy of Canada for research on this topic. He is affiliated with the Canadian Prairies Prescribed Fire Exchange. </span></em></p>Building a culture where fire is respected rather than feared is essential to maintain resilient landscapes.Eric Lamb, Professor, Department of Plant Science, University of SaskatchewanLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2013622023-05-24T16:20:24Z2023-05-24T16:20:24ZThe future is uncertain for our last old-growth boreal forests<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514949/original/file-20230313-16-8uiv5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C17%2C3876%2C2560&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Old spruce and fir forest, over 300 years old.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Maxence Martin)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Driving along the Trans-Canada Highway, with its endless succession of spruce, aspen, fir and birch trees, it’s easy to assume that our country is bursting with forests. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
<hr>
<p>Although we might see a few logging operations and traces of forest fires here and there, we probably wouldn’t imagine that our forests could some day disappear from the landscape. Yet the reality may be quite different. </p>
<p>The issue at stake is not so much the loss of forests, but rather, the loss of intact forests, i.e. forests where no harvesting activities have ever taken place. This is a major issue that was <a href="https://www.cbd.int/conferences/2021-2022/cop-15/documents">emphasized</a> once again at the UN Biodiversity Conference, held in Montréal in 2022. Canada ranks <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-boreal-deforestation-lobbying-1.6773789">third in the world</a> for the rate of loss of its intact forests. Not a very good record.</p>
<p>However, our research in recent years on boreal forest ecology and the impact of forest management shows that we must pay special attention to protecting old-growth forests within intact forests. </p>
<h2>Old-growth forests, a rule ignored in favour of the exception</h2>
<p>Fires are the main natural disturbance in the boreal forest. Yet while they look impressive, because of the vastness of the territory affected, their impact is relatively moderate. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, much of Canada’s intact boreal landscape consisted of forests <a href="https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.72">that had not burned for centuries</a>. These are often referred to as “old growth” forests. The adjective “old” creates a bias, however, since it suggests that the trees are dying or declining. This is actually far from the case: old-growth boreal forests have remained very dynamic and resilient <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02332.x">over the centuries</a>. An old forest is actually no more tired or fragile than a forest that we would describe as either “young” or “mature.” So be careful not to <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/basics/anthropomorphism">anthropomorphize</a>!</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510920/original/file-20230217-361-darzns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="conifer forest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510920/original/file-20230217-361-darzns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510920/original/file-20230217-361-darzns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510920/original/file-20230217-361-darzns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510920/original/file-20230217-361-darzns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510920/original/file-20230217-361-darzns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510920/original/file-20230217-361-darzns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510920/original/file-20230217-361-darzns.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Old spruce forest, 200 years old.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Maxence Martin)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
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<p>As far as the forester — whose main objective is to harvest wood — is concerned, allowing a forest to age amounts to a loss of wood. That’s because it is more efficient to cut forests early and frequently in order to take advantage of the strong growth of young trees. As a result, since the beginning of the industrial era, most harvesting of intact boreal forests has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-018-0148-9">targeted old-growth forests</a> with the objective of replacing them with younger forests. This drastically reduces the surface area and connectivity of old-growth forests. While they originally formed large continuous clumps, the old-growth forests that remain in managed areas now form small clusters separated from each other.</p>
<h2>Massive degradation of forest landscapes, not deforestation</h2>
<p>Regularly harvesting young forests makes sense in forests that are already being managed (i.e. forests that have been modified by previous harvesting) because this optimizes the harvesting of a material with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.09.107">many benefits</a>. Cutting in intact forests, on the other hand, leads to a degradation of the landscape through the loss of old-growth forests. Old forests offer very different habitats and ecological services than young, managed forests. For example, dead wood is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139025843">critical habitat</a> for many forest species. However, it is in old forests that dead wood is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107813">most abundant and diverse</a> in terms of its size or stage of degradation. </p>
<p>In Sweden, the loss of old-growth forests has led to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.1994.08030718.x">population collapse</a> of many forest species. In Canada, the decline of the woodland caribou is considered a “<a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/manitoba-government-caribou-agreement/">canary in the coal mine</a>,” a harbinger of a much larger ecological crisis that could result, in part, from the loss of old-growth forests. </p>
<p>However, it is inaccurate to speak of deforestation in the boreal forests, as the forest grows back after cutting. What’s happening should actually be called <a href="https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(22)00634-0?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS2590332222006340%3Fshowall%3Dtrue">degradation</a>. By replacing old-growth forests with younger forests that will not be allowed to age, we are degrading forest habitats. </p>
<p>So, talking about the low rate of deforestation of Canada’s boreal forests has become a way to avoid addressing the question of the degradation of these forests, which has been widely <a href="https://canadiangeographic.ca/articles/before-and-after-photos-show-devastating-effects-of-intensive-logging-on-b-c-s-old-growth-forests/">documented</a> now for decades. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510921/original/file-20230217-411-ga9m2c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="dead tree stump" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510921/original/file-20230217-411-ga9m2c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510921/original/file-20230217-411-ga9m2c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510921/original/file-20230217-411-ga9m2c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510921/original/file-20230217-411-ga9m2c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510921/original/file-20230217-411-ga9m2c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510921/original/file-20230217-411-ga9m2c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510921/original/file-20230217-411-ga9m2c.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dead wood is an essential habitat for many species.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Maxence Martin)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Do we know what we are losing?</h2>
<p>Stopping the degradation of old-growth boreal forests constitutes a major environmental challenge in Canada, and a policy of restoring already degraded landscapes must be added to this. Fortunately, these goals are not <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2022/0222/How-Canadian-families-are-saving-the-country-s-old-growth-forests">incompatible</a> with timber production. The latter should focus on forests that are managed for this purpose, rather than on intact forests. </p>
<p>Still, we must recognize our lack of knowledge about old-growth forests and the issues that arise from them. These forests show a high degree of heterogeneity <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107813">of histories, dynamics and habitats</a> that can be very difficult to identify and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2019-0177">map</a>. Even today, it appears to be impossible to provide a full picture of the state of Canada’s old-growth forests. </p>
<p>Boreal biodiversity also remains poorly understood, partly because it is dominated by species that are less visible and much less attractive than large mammals, like the caribou. These include <a href="https://doi.org/10.14214/sf.82">mosses</a>, lichens, insects, fungi or even bacteria. </p>
<p>An effective conservation policy must be both quantitative and qualitative, protecting natural habitats in all their diversity. Current protection targets are mainly quantitative. They are, for example, based on percentages of areas to be protected. However, logging is mainly concentrated in old-growth forests that are <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2021.639397">richer in wood</a>. </p>
<p>More globally, the recent decision by the province of Québec to cancel <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/06/07/quebec-misses-17-per-cent-protected-areas-target.html">83 protected area projects</a> in commercial forests, and to replace them with protected areas in the north that have no impact on the forest industry, demonstrates the risk of using simple accounting criteria that do not take ecological factors into consideration.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510922/original/file-20230217-22-mwbasv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="logging" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510922/original/file-20230217-22-mwbasv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510922/original/file-20230217-22-mwbasv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510922/original/file-20230217-22-mwbasv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510922/original/file-20230217-22-mwbasv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510922/original/file-20230217-22-mwbasv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510922/original/file-20230217-22-mwbasv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510922/original/file-20230217-22-mwbasv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Logging within a multi-hundred-year-old boreal forest.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Maxence Martin)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Talk about the urgent need to protect the last remaining intact forests is good news. However, to ensure that any conservation policy is really effective, we must proceed with caution, using critical skills. In Québec, for example, a degradation rate of 75 per cent of old-growth commercial forests is unfortunately still seen as, “<a href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwisiuao5pz9AhU8FVkFHS3YCkkQFnoECAsQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn-contenu.quebec.ca%2Fcdn-contenu%2Fforets%2Fdocuments%2Fplanification%2FAbitibi-Temiscamingue%2FPL_PAFIT_Abitibi_UA082-51_MFFP.pdf&usg=AOvVaw0S9feRbECqSLBqK2eJhOXd">acceptable</a>.” </p>
<p>Given the urgency of our current climate and environmental crisis, we can certainly do better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201362/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxence Martin has received funding from the Fonds de Recherche du Québec, the Université du Québec à Chicoutimi and the Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicole Fenton has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), the Fonds de recherche du Québec - Nature et Technologies (FRQNT), the Plan Nord du Québec, Environment Canada, in discovery and in partnership with forestry and mining companies.</span></em></p>The remoteness and small size of old-growth boreal trees should not make us forget their high ecological importance and the many threats they face.Maxence Martin, Écologie et aménagement forestiers, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Nicole Fenton, Professeure, écologie végétale/Professor, plant ecology, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2060572023-05-22T12:26:52Z2023-05-22T12:26:52ZWildfire smoke can harm human health, even when the fire is burning hundreds of miles away – a toxicologist explains why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534623/original/file-20230628-27-qecwmv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C66%2C4001%2C2728&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wildfire smoke filled the air at Chicago's Wrigley Field on June 27, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CanadaWildfiresAirQualityGreatLakesBaseball/e86f2c376cb040da87a614b0abdb8861/photo">AP Photo/Kim Johnson</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Smoke from <a href="https://www.ciffc.ca/">more than 100 wildfires</a> burning across Canada has been rolling into North American cities far from the flames. New York City, Denver, Chicago, Minneapolis and Detroit each made the list of the <a href="https://www.iqair.com/us/world-air-quality-ranking">most polluted cities in the world</a> at times in May and June 2023 because of the fires. The smoke has triggered air quality alerts in several states.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked <a href="https://www.umt.edu/biomedical-pharmaceutical-sciences/people/faculty.php?ID=1345">Chris Migliaccio</a>, a toxicologist at the University of Montana who studies the impact of wildfire smoke on human health, about the health risks people can face when smoke blows in from distant wildfires.</em></p>
<h2>What’s in wildfire smoke that’s a problem?</h2>
<p>When we talk about air quality, we often talk about PM2.5. That’s particulate matter 2.5 microns or smaller – small enough that it can travel deep into the lungs.</p>
<p>Exposure to PM2.5 from smoke or other air pollution, such as vehicle emissions, can exacerbate health conditions like asthma and reduce lung function in ways that can worsen existing respiratory problems and even heart disease.</p>
<p>But the term PM2.5 only tells you about size, not composition – what is burning can make a significant difference in the chemistry.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map of North America shows wildfire smoke from fires in Alberta and Ontario, Canada, detected strongly with poor air quality in the Great Lakes region, Northeast and Midwestern U.S." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534612/original/file-20230628-19-5wd03e.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Smoke from wildfires in Canada was detected across a large part of the U.S. on June 28, 2023. Dark purple dots indicate hazardous air quality. Light purple indicates very unhealthy air; red is unhealthy; orange is unhealthy for sensitive groups; and yellow indicates moderate risk. AirNow.gov.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://fire.airnow.gov/">AirNow.gov</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the northern Rockies, where I live, most fires are fueled by vegetation, but <a href="https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3450">not all vegetation is the same</a>. If the fire is in the wildland urban interface, manufactured fuels from homes and vehicles may also be burning, and that’s going to <a href="https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26460/the-chemistry-of-fires-at-the-wildland-urban-interface">create its own toxic chemistry</a>, as well. Chemists often talk about <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/effects/wildfires.htm">volatile organic compounds</a>, (VOCs), carbon monoxide and PAHs, or <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PAHs_FactSheet.html">polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons</a> produced when biomass and other matter burns having the potential to harm human health.</p>
<h2>How does inhaling wildfire smoke harm human health?</h2>
<p>If you have ever been around a campfire and got a blast of smoke in your face, you probably had some irritation. With exposure to wildfire smoke, you might get some irritation in the nose and throat and maybe <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2021GH000578">some inflammation</a>. If you’re healthy, your body for the most part will be able to handle it. </p>
<p>As with a lot of things, the dose makes the poison – almost anything can be harmful at a certain dose.</p>
<p>Generally, cells in the lungs called <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK513313/">alveolar macrophages</a> will pick up the particulates and clear them out – at reasonable doses. It’s when the system gets overwhelmed that you can have a problem.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Illustration of a small section of lungs showing the alveoli and, within the alveoli, a close up of a microphage" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=914&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1148&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1148&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527320/original/file-20230519-27-a7wgjx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1148&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where macrophages are found in alveoli, the tiny air sacs in the lungs.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One concern is that smoke can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31459-6">suppress macrophage function</a>, altering it enough that you become more susceptible to respiratory infection. A colleague who looked at lag time in the effect of wildfire smoke exposure found an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2020.105668">increase in influenza cases after a bad fire season</a>. Studies in developing countries have also found increases in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119055">respiratory infections</a> with people who are <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/thx.2010.147884">cooking on open fires</a> in homes.</p>
<p>The stress of an inflammatory response can also exacerbate existing health problems. Being exposed to wood smoke won’t independently cause someone to have a heart attack, but if they have underlying risk factors, such as significant plaque buildup, the added stress can increase the risk.</p>
<p>Researchers are also studying potential <a href="https://theconversation.com/breathing-wildfire-smoke-can-affect-the-brain-and-sperm-as-well-as-the-lungs-166548">effects on the brain</a> and <a href="https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/full/10.1289/EHP10498">nervous system</a> from <a href="https://www.epa.gov/isa/integrated-science-assessment-isa-particulate-matter">inhaled particulate matter</a>.</p>
<h2>When smoke blows over long distances, does its toxicity change?</h2>
<p>We know that the chemistry of wildfire smoke changes. The longer it’s in the atmosphere, the more the <a href="https://theconversation.com/wildfire-smoke-changes-dramatically-as-it-ages-and-that-matters-for-downwind-air-quality-heres-what-we-learned-flying-through-smoke-plumes-151671">chemistry will be altered</a> by ultraviolet light, but we still have <a href="http://doi.org/10.1016/j.etap.2017.08.022">a lot to learn</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman walks past the New York Stock Exchange building in the Wall Street district of New York. The sky is yellow-orange with wildfire smoke, a sky color common in apocalyptic films." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534624/original/file-20230628-17-7l230z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wildfire smoke from Canada turned the skies in New York City an apocalyptic shade of orange on June 7, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CanadaWIldfiresPhotoGallery/1601ea44e9bb4515ba755b4f6a7d5fa9/photo">AP Photo/J. David Ake</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Researchers have found that there seems to be a higher level of oxidation, so oxidants and free radicals are being generated the longer smoke is in the air. The specific health effects aren’t yet clear, but there’s some indication that more exposure leads to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/8416763">greater health effects</a>.</p>
<p>The supposition is that more <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/four-times-more-toxic-how-wildfire-smoke-ages-over-time">free radicals are generated</a> the longer smoke is exposed to UV light, so there’s a greater potential for health harm. A lot of that, again, comes down to dose.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="The city skyline disappears as the viewer looks farther into the haze, which is coming from wildfire smoke." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534619/original/file-20230628-17-fz8urj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Haze from wildfire smoke envelopes the Minneapolis skyline on June 14, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/CanadianWildfiresAirQuality/4dedf9a42ab04009a3f199e415fb66b1/photo">AP Photo/Abbie Parr</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Chances are, if you’re a healthy individual, going for a bike ride or a hike in light haze won’t be a big deal, and your body will be able to recover. </p>
<p>If you’re doing that every day for a month in wildfire smoke, however, that raises more concerns. I’ve worked on studies with residents at Seeley Lake in Montana who were exposed to hazardous levels of PM2.5 from wildfire smoke for 49 days in 2017. We found a <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/toxics8030053">decrease in lung function a year later</a>. No one was on oxygen, but there was a significant drop.</p>
<p>This is a relatively new area of research, and there’s still a lot we’re learning, especially with the increase in wildfire activity as the planet warms.</p>
<h2>What precautions can people take to reduce their risk from wildfire smoke?</h2>
<p>If there is smoke in the air, you want to decrease your exposure. </p>
<p>Can you completely avoid the smoke? Not unless you’re in a hermetically sealed home. The PM levels aren’t much different indoors and out unless you have a really good HVAC system, such as those with <a href="https://www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/what-merv-rating">MERV 15 or better filters</a>. But going inside decreases your activity, so your breathing rate is slower and the amount of smoke you’re inhaling is likely lower.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A satellite animation shows smoke moving from fires in Alberta across Canada and into New England." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527359/original/file-20230521-119053-ul9mif.gif?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A satellite captures wildfire smoke on May 16, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.earthdata.nasa.gov/worldview/worldview-image-archive/canada-fires-16-may-2023">NASA EarthData</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also tend to advise people that if you’re in a susceptible group, such as those with asthma, create a safe space at home and in the office with a high-level stand-alone air filtration system to create a space with cleaner air.</p>
<p>Some <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-020-00267-4">masks can help</a>. It doesn’t hurt to have a high-quality N95 mask. Just wearing a cloth mask won’t do much, though.</p>
<p>Most <a href="https://www.airnow.gov/">states have air quality monitors</a> that can give you a sense of how bad the air quality is, so check those sites and act accordingly.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated June 28, 2023, with smoke in Chicago, Minneapolis and Detroit and the latest map of smoke conditions.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206057/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher T. Migliaccio has received funding from the NIH and HRSA for his work in wood smoke health effects.
. </span></em></p>Fires in Canada have sent smoke across several US states, leaving cities including New York, Chicago and Denver with some of the worst air quality in the world – even far from the flames.Christopher T. Migliaccio, Research Associate Professor in Toxicology, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2058182023-05-17T21:30:11Z2023-05-17T21:30:11ZAs we fight the Alberta and B.C. wildfires, we must also plan for future disasters<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/as-we-fight-the-alberta-and-b-c--wildfires--we-must-also-plan-for-future-disasters" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://wildfiresituation.nrs.gov.bc.ca/map">British Columbia</a> and <a href="https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/8d86d267dcf44ad085a11939186f3d3a">Alberta</a> are on fire. Tens of thousands of people have had to evacuate <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/weather/alberta-canada-wildfires-evacuations/index.html">in Alberta</a>, while much of B.C. is already experiencing <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/wildfire-risks-update-may-16-2023-1.6845276">higher-than-usual wildfire risk</a>. With more than 150 fires currently burning across the two provinces, a hazardous haze is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-alberta-braces-wildfires-spread-winds-shift-2023-05-16/">blanketing Calgary</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65566072">affecting air quality</a> as far away as the East Coast.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/about-bcws/wildfire-statistics/wildfire-averages">average area burned by wildfires</a> and the cost of suppression have grown steadily over the past 12 years, indicating increasingly larger and more intense wildfires. The <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/about-bcws/wildfire-history/wildfire-season-summary">2017 fire season</a> set the record for most hectares burned in B.C. It was surpassed in 2018. Three years later, a wildfire destroyed the town of <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-wildfires-lytton-bc-rebuild/">Lytton, B.C.</a>. That season incurred the highest ever cost of fire suppression — $718 million.</p>
<p>Last year, B.C. adopted a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/wildfire-budget-changes-1.6362001">year-round wildfire service</a> in the hopes of mitigating wildfire risk through actions such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/prescribed-fire">controlled burns</a>, indicating a shift from a responsive mindset to a more proactive one. But as we look beyond the monumental task of reducing yearly fire losses, we come upon a much bigger question: How do we prepare for disasters whose timing is uncertain, like earthquakes, while also responding to immediate crises?</p>
<p>High-risk, high-uncertainty events like earthquakes tend to fall out of view when we are occupied with more predictable seasonal events like wildfires, which have very visible effects on our lives and the landscape right now. <a href="https://drrn.ubc.ca/">Our research</a> suggests a critical need for integrated disaster governance and policy planning that considers the full range of risks, regardless of whether they are affecting us now or in the future. </p>
<h2>The present bias</h2>
<p>Research and life experience tells us that, as humans, we are good at focusing on immediate needs while pushing longer-term processes down the priority list until they gain urgency. </p>
<p>We tend to follow the same patterns when facing disasters. We are good at focusing on things that are on fire now, while being unable or unwilling to take on the long-term tasks that will keep other disasters from occurring in the first place. Studies in behavioural economics call this tendency to place a higher value on the current time “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2016.29">present bias</a>.”</p>
<p>When applied to disaster planning, this means future preparedness and mitigation activities can face an uphill battle, even though spending slightly more in the present, for instance in constructing earthquake-safe buildings, may result in <a href="https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/2020-07/fema_mitsaves-factsheet_2018.pdf">large future benefits</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-cheaper-we-build-our-buildings-the-more-they-cost-after-an-earthquake-wildfire-or-tornado-183899">The cheaper we build our buildings, the more they cost after an earthquake, wildfire or tornado</a>
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<p>These effects of present bias are a dilemma for disaster planning, as the vast majority of societal attention and resources are <a href="https://doi.org/10/gq4k9v">dedicated to moments in crisis</a>, rather than to preventing crises.</p>
<h2>Dealing with uncertainty</h2>
<p>One way of dealing with uncertainty in disaster planning is shifting the ways that we think about the relationship disasters have with time. Adapting a phrase that <a href="https://www.mqup.ca/just-one-rain-away-products-9780228014287.php">anthropologist Stephanie Kane</a> has applied to river courses, the potential for damaging earthquakes sits at “the precarious intersections of our historical and geological times.” </p>
<p>Geological time exists on a scale far exceeding human lifespans, but we encounter it through the hazards that affect our lives and homes in the present.</p>
<p>Major <a href="https://www.oregon.gov/oem/hazardsprep/pages/cascadia-subduction-zone.aspx">Cascadia Subduction Zone</a> (CSZ) earthquakes, for example, tend to occur along the West Coast in intervals of 200 to 600 years. Meanwhile, a combination of <a href="https://doi.org/10.17953/aicr.31.4.3374595624774617">Indigenous</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.76.2.140">oral histories</a>, <a href="https://eos.org/science-updates/swipe-left-on-the-big-one-better-dates-for-cascadia-quakes">coastal ghost forests</a> and Japanese records of an <a href="https://doi.org/10.3133/pp1707">orphan tsunami</a>, show the last CSZ earthquake occurred on Jan. 26, 1700. This is the moment that the CSZ’s geological process last intersected with historical time.</p>
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<p>The next “<a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one">Really Big One</a>” or “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002521">Cascadia event</a>,” could <a href="https://www.riskprofiler.ca/scenarios/index.html#SIM9p0_CascadiaInterfaceBestFault">potentially</a> cause thousands of deaths and displace upwards of a million people in B.C., Washington and Oregon. Yet it still feels unreal, as it might happen tomorrow or long after we are dead.</p>
<h2>A multi-hazard approach</h2>
<p>Hazards like earthquakes, storms and wildfires are part of the natural world but they don’t have to result in disasters. </p>
<p>Disasters occur when we are not prepared for the hazards that we know can happen, and their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2372732220982628">inequitable harms</a> fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable members of our society. Multiple hazards can compound to create a multilayered disaster, like when <a href="https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/environment/climate-change/adaptation/resources/lived_experience_of_extreme_heat_in_bc_final_report.pdf">extreme heat in B.C. coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic in the summer of 2021</a>.</p>
<p>This is why we need to take on a “multi-hazard approach” to reducing disaster risk. A multi-hazard approach looks at the full range of possible hazards in relation to each other: fires, floods, extreme heat, pandemics and earthquakes. </p>
<p>Sometimes these hazards are causally interconnected — for instance <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/landslides-growing-threat-after-wildfires-burn-1.6150932">debris flows or landslides</a> that occur in the wake of wildfire. But even when their onset is distinct, many of the strategies needed for responding to one can also be useful for responding to others, if the relevant agencies, governments and residents communicate efficiently to develop shared protocols. </p>
<p>The establishment of B.C.’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-gets-its-first-minister-for-emergency-management-and-climate-readiness-1.6679892">new Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness</a> last year is a tacit acknowledgement that better co-ordination is needed to help mitigate the multiple hazards B.C. faces, especially as the climate crisis accelerates. </p>
<h2>Keeping disaster knowledge present</h2>
<p>While present crises may overshadow the past and limit considerations of the future, they can also inspire people to plan for future scenarios, for instance through <a href="https://vancouver.ca/home-property-development/earthquake-impacts.aspx">earthquake modelling</a>.</p>
<p>Keeping the knowledge of disaster present through cultural practice can act as a source of social cohesion. Our current understanding of the long-term earthquake risk in Cascadia is grounded as much in geotechnical analyses as it is in the intergenerational knowledge of the Indigenous peoples of the region. </p>
<p>Long before the last CSZ earthquake in 1700, First Nations have transmitted knowledge about earthquakes and tsunamis, as well as responses to them, through <a href="https://www2.moa.ubc.ca/shakeupipad/">visual art, oral history and dance</a>. It is no surprise they are now at the forefront of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/cls.2023.2">forging strategies for coordinated disaster response</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1657098419855319041"}"></div></p>
<p>Knowledge transmission requires communication and a desire for understanding shared experiences by those in the aftermath of a disaster and those yet to face one. This kind of society-building takes place through <a href="https://www.myvacs.org/emergingelders">intergenerational, intercultural sharing</a> and <a href="https://grandviewheritagegroup.ca/">community-making efforts</a> by <a href="https://www.dunbaremergency.ca/">neighbours</a> and policymakers who can see the value in the “soft” mitigation measures of relationship-building <a href="https://vancouver.ca/files/cov/resilient-neighbourhoods-toolkit.pdf">at the slow speed of trust</a>.</p>
<p>After more than a hundred years of banned <a href="https://blog.gov.bc.ca/bcwildfire/how-cultural-burning-enhances-landscapes-and-lives/">cultural burning</a>, wildfires are more intense than ever. Rather than suppressing all fires, B.C.’s firefighting services are now learning to work with Indigenous people to <a href="https://prescribedfire.ca/cultural-burning/">manage fire</a> as a part of a healthy ecosystem. This requires thinking in terms of the whole life cycle of the forest, rather than a single fire season.</p>
<p>A shift in how we think about time can help us avoid our present bias and be ready for the next big disaster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205818/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Eaton has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the UBC Public Scholars Initiative. He is a member of UBC’s Disaster Resilience Research Network, which is funded by the UBC Grants for Catalyzing Research Clusters program.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sara Shneiderman has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the UKRI Global Challenges Research Fund. She is a member of UBC’s Disaster Resilience Research Network, which is funded by the UBC Grants for Catalyzing Research Clusters program.</span></em></p>High-risk, high-uncertainty events like earthquakes tend to fall out of view when we are occupied with more predictable seasonal events like wildfires, which have very visible effects on our lives.Jonathan Eaton, PhD Candidate in Anthropology, University of British ColumbiaSara Shneiderman, Associate Professor, Anthropology Department and School of Public Policy & Global Affairs, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2013642023-05-17T14:00:59Z2023-05-17T14:00:59ZWhat log driving can teach us about forests, past and present<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516807/original/file-20230321-26-avunzm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C5%2C991%2C497&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In North America, log driving is thought to have stopped by the end of the 20th century, with the exception of British Columbia, where it is still practised on a small scale.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The log drive is an integral part of Québec <a href="https://www.nfb.ca/film/log_drive/">culture</a>. Specifically, log driving refers to the use of waterways to float and transport logs from harvesting sites to sawmills or ports where they are exported. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
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<p>The intensive exploitation of forests in Québec since the time of colonization has resulted in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09265-z">major changes</a> in their structure and dynamics. Few virgin forests remain accessible today, which limits our ability to study pre-industrial forest conditions. Yet this knowledge is essential in order for us to be able to manage forests in a sustainable manner today. </p>
<p>The logs that sank to the bottom of lakes during the log driving period contain information on the history of Québec’s forests to which we have never before had access. For me, as a PhD student in paleoecology and historical ecology at the <a href="https://www.uqat.ca/recherche/grema/">Groupe de Recherche en Écologie de la MRC Abitibi (GREMA)</a> of the <a href="https://www.uqat.ca/">Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)</a>, remnants of log driving represent an unprecedented opportunity to reconstruct the history of pre-industrial forest dynamics and exploitation in Québec. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508121/original/file-20230203-20-srd12l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508121/original/file-20230203-20-srd12l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508121/original/file-20230203-20-srd12l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508121/original/file-20230203-20-srd12l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508121/original/file-20230203-20-srd12l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508121/original/file-20230203-20-srd12l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508121/original/file-20230203-20-srd12l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508121/original/file-20230203-20-srd12l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Timing of the use of log driving around the world.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Amélie Bergeron and Julie-Pascale Labrecque-Foy)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
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<h2>A practice dating back to the 10th century</h2>
<p>Over the past few centuries, logging has played a central role in the economic development of many countries, particularly for the construction of infrastructure and for trade. Forest companies used log driving because it was difficult to get access to roads and railways to transport cut logs. </p>
<p>The logs were cut, put into the water and then guided along the rivers by log drivers. Once logs arrived at the sawmills, they could be stored for several months on the surface of the lakes before being removed for their different uses. </p>
<p>Log driving is thought to have originated in the 10th century in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jas.2018.05.002">Spain</a> and then spread across Europe over the centuries. It only appeared in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-005-0030-9">Scandinavia</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/f7110257">Russia</a> in the 19th century. It began in North America around the same time, most notably in <a href="https://www.erudit.org/en/journals/hq/2001-v6-n3-hq1057791/11343ac/">Québec</a>, where it spread to all regions. Log driving in North America is believed to have stopped by the end of the 20th century, except in British Columbia, where it is still practised on a small scale.</p>
<h2>Québec forests today</h2>
<p>During the period of colonization in Québec (1800-1950), the low transportation costs of log driving made it possible for forestry companies to exploit the forests intensively. This resulted in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.06.037">significant changes to forest ecosystems</a> both in their structure and dynamics.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509537/original/file-20230210-409-7zl61t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="River teeming with logs" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509537/original/file-20230210-409-7zl61t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509537/original/file-20230210-409-7zl61t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509537/original/file-20230210-409-7zl61t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509537/original/file-20230210-409-7zl61t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509537/original/file-20230210-409-7zl61t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509537/original/file-20230210-409-7zl61t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509537/original/file-20230210-409-7zl61t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">During the log driving era, about 15 per cent of the wood transported on rivers was lost when it sunk to the bottom of lakes and rivers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Library and Archives Canada / PA-165128</span></span>
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<p>The selective logging of the 19th century, which mainly targeted conifers, led to serious changes in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13474">composition of the forests</a>. The forests changed from being dominated by coniferous to deciduous trees. In terms of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1641/B580207">fire regime change</a>, since hardwoods are less flammable than conifers, there has been a major decrease in fires in Québec forests since colonization. These changes in forest composition and dynamics have resulted in decreased <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.31.1.425">forest resilience</a>. In other words, the ability of forests to return to their initial state after a disturbance is now compromised.</p>
<p>In the context of climate change, this loss of resilience is worrisome, since forests are likely to be subjected to unprecedented conditions. In order to predict how forests might be modified in the future, we have to study how they responded to climate change in the past. </p>
<p>This type of study can be done through <a href="https://www.environmentalscience.org/dendrochronology-tree-rings-tell-us">dendrochronology</a>, which is the study of tree ring formation. However, in Québec, dendrochronological studies, as well as our knowledge of pre-industrial forests are limited by the young age of the trees, which are rarely older than 200 years. So we need to develop new ways to discover the hidden secrets of our forests in the past. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508122/original/file-20230203-12399-4dxg4v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508122/original/file-20230203-12399-4dxg4v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/508122/original/file-20230203-12399-4dxg4v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508122/original/file-20230203-12399-4dxg4v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508122/original/file-20230203-12399-4dxg4v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508122/original/file-20230203-12399-4dxg4v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508122/original/file-20230203-12399-4dxg4v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/508122/original/file-20230203-12399-4dxg4v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Anoxic conditions, lack of light and cool temperatures all favour the conservation of logs from log driving found at the bottom of lakes. Photo by Nathalie Lasselin (www.aquanat.com) at La Mauricie National Park as part of the Cinéma Submergé project (a). Once removed from the lake bottom by divers (b), the cross-sectional slices of the logs show well-defined growth rings and fire scars (identified by red arrows) that allow us to date the fires in the past (c). Photos by Julie-Pascale Labrecque-Foy (b) and Amélie Bergeron (c).</span>
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<h2>Travelling back in time with the remains of log driving</h2>
<p>At the time of log driving, approximately 15 per cent of the logs transported on waterways were lost in the bottom of lakes and rivers. For example, in the Mauricie region alone, this represents more than <a href="https://savoirs.usherbrooke.ca/bitstream/handle/11143/10556/Lemay_Maud_MEnv_2017.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y">13 million cubic metres of wood</a>. Anoxic conditions (absence of oxygen), the lack of light and cool temperatures (5°C) have ensured that this wood is still well preserved today. Consequently, this wood from the pre-industrial forest represents a unique opportunity to study the past of our forests.</p>
<p>Among other things, the characteristics of these logs (species, diameter, number of growth rings) tell us about the characteristics of pre-industrial forests and the cutting criteria of the time. The passage of a fire also leaves scars on surviving trees. It is possible to date these scars by dendrochronology and to reconstruct the natural fire regime in the pre-industrial era. </p>
<p>Finally, by analyzing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1153-2015">stable isotopes</a> found in the growth rings of logs, we can reconstruct the climate of the past. This will allow us to determine how the climate influenced fires in the past, and to predict how this disturbance might be modified in the future due to climate change. Indeed, there is currently no consensus on studies that attempt to predict how the fire regime might be altered in the context of climate change. More studies on this subject are needed. </p>
<p>Our research project will provide new knowledge about pre-industrial forests and how they have responded to climate change in the past, which will help guide practices for sustainable forest management.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201364/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie-Pascale Labrecque-Foy has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Vanier Scholarship, and the Fonds de recherche du Québec, Nature et technologies (FRQNT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Miguel Montoro Girona received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) - Discovery Grant and from Parks Canada (La Mauricie National Park) for this research.</span></em></p>Logging over the past two centuries has had a major impact on Québec’s forests. The traces it has left will guide the adoption of sustainable forest management techniques.Julie-Pascale Labrecque-Foy, Étudiante au doctorat en paléoécologie et écologie historique, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Miguel Montoro Girona, Professeur d'écologie forestière, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2013652023-05-10T14:32:14Z2023-05-10T14:32:14ZForest fires: North America’s boreal forests are burning a lot, but less than 150 years ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514735/original/file-20230310-24-i3qohj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C2%2C1637%2C748&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Satellite image of a forest fire in July 2021 in northern Saskatchewan (Wapawekka Hills). The image covers an area of about 56 kilometres in width and is based on Copernicus Sentinel data.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Pierre Markuse), CC BY 2.0</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Unseasonably hot and dry weather conditions <a href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/maps/fw?type=fdr&year=2023&month=5&day=5">in early May 2023</a> led to dozens of forest fires <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151313/fires-scorch-western-canada">in western Canada</a>. As of May 6, the Alberta government declared a <a href="https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/alberta-declares-state-of-emergency-due-to-unprecedented-start-to-wildfire-season-1.6387641">state of emergency over wildfires</a>, and at the time of writing this article, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-wildfires-environment-weather-extreme-1.6835352">nearly 30,000 people had to be evacuated</a>. Although it is too early to establish a precise assessment of this extreme episode, recent research allows us to place it in a broader context.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
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<p>In North American boreal forests, several million hectares can go up in smoke in a single year. On the other hand, these forest fires can seem almost negligible for several consecutive years. During the past 60 years, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2018-0293">the area annually affected by forest fires has increased</a>, presumably because of climate change. Or at least that’s part of the explanation. </p>
<p>However, to better understand the long-term trends it is important to take a step back. This is the work our team of forest and fire ecology specialists recently carried out. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22090">The results of our research</a> contradict the common wisdom about North American boreal forests — that they burned more in the past than they do today. But before we go into more detail about this, we feel it’s important to provide some background and context.</p>
<h2>What causes a forest fire?</h2>
<p>Scientists have been asking this question for a long time. Thanks to research carried out in the last few decades, the answer can now be summed up by three factors: vegetation, weather, and triggers.</p>
<p>Vegetation, which can be thought of as fuel, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12322">is a determining factor</a>. For example, large areas of dense coniferous forest are more likely to burn down than are deciduous forests with wetter undergrowth, or less dense forests. </p>
<p><a href="https://natural-resources.canada.ca/climate-change/impacts-adaptations/climate-change-impacts-forests/forest-change-indicators/fire-weather/17776">Meteorological factors also influence the flammability of fuels</a>; dry, windy conditions are highly conducive to the ignition and spread of fires. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507205/original/file-20230130-15993-d5dj3a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Burned forest landscape in 2010 in the Radisson region (northern Quebec).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Guillaume Avajon)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
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<p>However, this combination of favourable conditions, itself, is not enough to generate a forest fire; there also needs to be a trigger. There are two types of triggers: lightning and humans. Although humans have been the cause of most fires started in recent decades in Canada, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3329">lightning has actually been responsible for the largest area of burned forest</a>.</p>
<h2>Impacts on society</h2>
<p>When we hear about forest fires in the media, the news is usually tragic for communities. As a recent example, during the <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/3138183/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-named-canadas-news-story-of-2016/">2016 Fort McMurray disaster</a>, some 600,000 hectares went up in smoke and over 88,000 people were evacuated. </p>
<p>Fires also have an economic impact on the forestry industry, as they consume millions of trees originally destined for mills. Moreover, fires accelerate climate change, as the burning of vegetation causes a massive release of CO2 into the atmosphere.</p>
<h2>A strong influence on ecosystems, but not necessarily negative</h2>
<p>The landscape we see a few weeks after a fire often looks apocalyptic. Forest fires leave significant traces on ecosystems and biodiversity. This is the case for certain species such as the Woodland Caribou, which depend on the presence of mature coniferous forests to survive. Fires <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02294">are therefore a threat to its survival</a>.</p>
<p>But, on the other hand, fires have always been part of forests, and are sometimes even essential to their ecological functioning. Most of the time, the burned landscape will gradually give way to vigorous young trees, which grow into a mature forest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abf3903">in some 50 to 100 years</a>. Some tree species are even dependent on fire <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12855">to regenerate and as a result, maintain themselves</a>. This is the case notably of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/x92-062">jack pine and black spruce</a>, which the forestry industry loves.</p>
<p>Many animal species are also fond of burned forests. Charred tree trunks provide food for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08109">certain insect species</a>, such as the <a href="https://bugguide.net/node/view/573401/bgpage">black long-horned beetle</a>. Insects in turn provide abundant food for birds, like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.01.022">black-backed woodpeckers</a>, which use snags (dead standing trees whose roots are still anchored to the ground) to nest.</p>
<p>In other words, fires are neither entirely good, nor entirely bad. It depends on your point of view. Additionally, as is often the case, it is also a question of balance…</p>
<h2>Reconstructing the history of fires over the last centuries</h2>
<p>Accurate records required to reconstruct the history of forest fires in Canada only go back to the 1960s. So how can we reconstruct the history of burned areas over the last few centuries? We can use the information contained in the trees themselves, and more specifically, their age. </p>
<p>In boreal forests, fire is a dominant natural disturbance. So, by determining the age of the oldest trees in a forest, provided these have not been cut down, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1078/1125-7865-00015">we can figure out the last time a forest burned</a>.</p>
<h2>A downward trend in burned areas over the past few centuries</h2>
<p>We gathered 16 studies that had independently applied the same method to different areas across North American boreal forests, from Alaska to Québec. After reanalysis of all this data in what scientists call a “meta-analysis,” <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22090%22%22">the results</a> are striking: North American boreal forests burned much more 150 years ago than they do today. In the earliest period covered by our data, between 1700 and 1850, the annual area burned was between two and more than 10 times greater than what has been observed over the past 40 years.</p>
<p>What explains this long-term downward trend? It is difficult to say based on the current state of research. Obviously, climate change is one of the suspects. The period from 1700 to 1850 was the end of what is known as the Little Ice Age, a period known for being colder, but probably also drier and, therefore, more conducive to fires. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="map" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=308&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507203/original/file-20230130-26-cydcyu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mapping of fires (red on map) in North American boreal forests (green area on map) since 1960. The graph on the left shows the total area burned per year in millions of hectares. Over this recent period, there is both a large variability from year to year, and also a slight upward trend. Infographic by Victor Danneyrolles based on https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/ha/nfdb for Canada and https://fire.ak.blm.gov for Alaska.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Victor Danneyrolles)</span>, <span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
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<p>The vegetation could also have changed and become less flammable, particularly as a result of cuts by the logging industry over the 20th century. Also during the 20th century the technological and financial means allocated to firefighting continued to increase, culminating in the 1970s with the appearance of <a href="https://simpleflying.com/canadair-cl-215-scooper-history/">water bomber aircraft</a>. Fire suppression policies could therefore have also played a role in reducing fires in some areas. </p>
<p>However, fires began to decline as early as the 19th century, long before human communities had a significant impact on the North American boreal forest environment. It seems more likely that climate change is the primary cause of the decrease in fires, superimposed by the impacts of human activity.</p>
<p>We hope new research will soon allow us to answer these questions. A better understanding of why fires have decreased or increased over the past few centuries will give us a head start in predicting what to expect from future climate change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201365/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Raphaël Chavardès has received funding from Fonds de recherche du Québec - Nature et technologie (FRQNT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Yves Bergeron has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and Fonds de recherche du Québec - Nature et technologie (FRQNT).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Victor Danneyrolles ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>North America’s boreal forests have been burning a lot, probably more and more over the past 60 years. Yet the long-term trend indicates that they are burning less than they were 150 years ago.Victor Danneyrolles, Professeur-chercheur en écologie forestière, Université du Québec à Chicoutimi (UQAC)Raphaël Chavardès, Postdoctoral fellow, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Yves Bergeron, Professeur écologie et aménagement forestier, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2034722023-04-19T12:44:18Z2023-04-19T12:44:18ZFire danger in the high mountains is intensifying: That’s bad news for humans, treacherous for the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521666/original/file-20230418-22-zv27xr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1731%2C1065&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fires are increasing in high mountain areas that rarely burned in the past.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Deerfire_high_res.jpg">John McColgan, Bureau of Land Management, Alaska Fire Service</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As wildfire risk rises in the West, wildland firefighters and officials are keeping a closer eye on the high mountains – regions once considered too wet to burn.</p>
<p>The growing fire risk in these areas became startling clear in 2020, when Colorado’s <a href="https://www.cpr.org/2021/01/25/colorados-east-troublesome-wildfire-may-signal-a-new-era-of-big-fire-blow-ups/">East Troublesome Fire</a> burned up and over the Continental Divide to become the state’s second-largest fire on record. The following year, California’s <a href="https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-09-14/californias-wildfires-burning-at-greater-elevations">Dixie Fire</a> became the first on record to burn across the Sierra Nevada’s crest and start down the other side.</p>
<p>We study wildfire behavior as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZaW8ZbsAAAAJ&hl=en">climate scientists</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tGGNDyUAAAAJ&hl=en">engineers</a>. In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37311-4">new study</a>, we show that fire risk has intensified in every region across the West over the past four decades, but the sharpest upward trends are in the high elevations. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Fire burns in the mountains above a building and ranch fence." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C17%2C5670%2C3236&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521653/original/file-20230418-826-n7xjsd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 2020, Colorado’s East Troublesome fire jumped the Continental Divide.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Exchange-ColoradoWildfires-Blow-ups/8e10c8213c3847f3a7ef14e7ff81eddf/photo">AP Photo/David Zalubowski</a></span>
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<p>High mountain fires can create a cascade of risks for local ecosystems and for millions of people living farther down the mountains.</p>
<p>Since cooler, wetter high mountain landscapes rarely burn, vegetation and dead wood can build up, so <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">highland fires tend to be intense and uncontrollable</a>. They can affect everything from water quality and the timing of meltwater that communities and farmers rely on, to erosion that can bring debris and mud flows. Ultimately, they can change the hydrology, ecology and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/geomorphology">geomorphology</a> of the highlands, with complex feedback loops that can transform mountain landscapes and endanger human safety.</p>
<h2>Four decades of rising fire risk</h2>
<p>Historically, higher moisture levels and cooler temperatures created a flammability barrier in the highlands. This enabled fire managers to leave fires that move away from human settlements and up mountains to run their course without interference. Fire would hit the flammability barrier and burn out.</p>
<p>However, our findings show that’s no longer reliable as the climate warms.</p>
<p>We <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37311-4">analyzed fire danger trends</a> in different elevation bands of the Western U.S. mountains from 1979 to 2020. Fire danger describes conditions that reflect the <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/inyo/home/?cid=stelprdb5173311">potential for a fire to ignite and spread</a>.</p>
<p>Over that 42-year period, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz4571">rising temperatures and drying trends</a> increased the number of critical fire danger days in every region in the U.S. West. But in the highlands, certain environmental processes, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563">earlier snowmelt</a> that allowed the earth to heat up and become drier, intensified the fire danger faster than anywhere else. It was particularly stark in high-elevation forests from about 8,200 to 9,800 feet (2,500-3,000 meters) in elevation, just above the elevation of Aspen, Colorado.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing changing wildfire risks in the high mountains" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521494/original/file-20230418-18-ombvln.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mohammad Reza Alizadeh</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We found that the high-elevation band had gained on average 63 critical fire danger days a year by 2020 compared with 1979. That included 22 days outside the traditional warm season of May to September. In previous research, we found that high-elevation fires had been advancing upslope in the West at <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2009717118">about 25 feet (7.6 meters) per year</a>.</p>
<h2>Cascading risks for humans downstream</h2>
<p>Mountains are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005653">water towers</a> of the world, providing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073551">70% of the runoff that cities across the West</a> rely on. They support millions of people who live downstream.</p>
<p>High-elevation fires can have a significant impact on snow accumulation and meltwater, even long after they have burned out. </p>
<p>For example, fires remove vegetation cover and tree canopies, which can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09935-y">shorten the amount of time</a> the snowpack stays frozen before melting. Soot from fires also darkens the snow surface, increasing its ability to absorb the Sun’s energy, which facilitates melting. Similarly, darkened land surface increases the absorption of solar radiation and heightens soil temperature after fires.</p>
<p>The result of these changes can be spring flooding, and less water later in the summer when communities downstream are counting on it.</p>
<p>Fire-driven tree loss also removes anchor points for the snowpack, increasing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.01.050">the frequency and severity of avalanches</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A burned area on a mountain ridge with a large reservoir far below." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521655/original/file-20230418-26-rde43z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wildfire burn scars can have many effects on the water quality and quantity reaching communities below.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/iron-mountain-and-whiskeytown-lake-site-of-the-destructive-news-photo/1334892056">George Rose/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Frequent fires in high-elevation areas can also have a significant impact on the sediment dynamics of mountain streams. The loss of tree canopy means rainfall hits the ground at a higher velocity, increasing the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814627116">potential for erosion</a>. This can trigger mudslides and increase the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09864-w">amount of sediment</a> sent downstream, which in turn can affect water quality and aquatic habitats.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1814627116">Erosion linked to runoff after fire damage</a> can also deepen streams to the point that excess water from storms can’t spread in high-elevation meadows and recharge the groundwater; instead, they route the water quickly downstream and cause flooding.</p>
<h2>Hazards for climate-stressed species and ecosystems</h2>
<p>The highlands generally have long fire return intervals, burning once every several decades if not centuries. Since they don’t burn often, their ecosystems aren’t as fire-adapted as lower-elevation forests, so they may not recover as efficiently or survive repeated fires. </p>
<p>Studies show that more frequent fires could <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12889">change the type of trees that grow</a> in the highlands or even convert them to shrubs or grasses. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A team of pack mules carries supplies up a high mountain in Glacier National Park. Some of the trees have burned, even at this high elevation." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/521663/original/file-20230418-682-fl98ua.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">High-elevation tree species like whitebark pines face an increasing risk of blister rust infections and mountain pine beetle infestations that can kill trees, creating more fuel for fires.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/park-service-animal-packers-jill-michalak-and-jacob-ellis-news-photo/1175612536">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wet mountain areas, with their cooler temperatures and higher precipitation, are often peppered with hot spots of biodiversity and provide refuges to various species from the warming climate. If these areas lose their tree canopies, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1103097108">species with small ranges</a> that depend on cold-water mountain streams can face existential risks as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0822.1">more energy from the Sun</a> heats up stream water in the absence of tree shading. </p>
<p>While the risk is rising fastest in the high mountains, most of the West is now at increasing risk of fires. With continuing greenhouse gas emissions fueling global warming, this trend of worsening fire danger is expected to intensify further, straining firefighting resources as crews battle more blazes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/203472/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mojtaba Sadegh receives funding from the Joint Fire Science Program and the National Science Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mohammad Reza Alizadeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fires here can affect meltwater timing and water quality, worsen erosion that triggers mudslides, and much more, as two scientists explain.Mohammad Reza Alizadeh, Postdoctoral Researcher in Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Mojtaba Sadegh, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1989592023-03-07T22:03:59Z2023-03-07T22:03:59ZGlobal warming is changing Canada’s boreal forest and tundra<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510511/original/file-20230216-16-ind8te.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5464%2C3067&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Climate change will affect Canada's boreal forest in a complex way.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Global warming is affecting the boreal forest — what happens will depend on the climate, vegetation and the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Changes in the north include increases or decreases in leaf growth, called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0688-1">Arctic greening and browning</a>, <a href="https://www.arctictoday.com/shrubification-mean-arctic/">more extensive growth of shrubs</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6221-1">treeline movement</a>. It is the interaction of fire, climate and time that determines the nature of the forest-tundra today and how it changes in response to climate variability. </p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524152/original/file-20230503-20-rp105s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><strong>This article is part of <em>La Conversation Canada’s</em> series <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca-fr/topics/foret-boreale-138017">The boreal forest: A thousand secrets, a thousand dangers</a></strong></p>
<p><br><em>La Conversation Canada invites you to take a virtual walk in the heart of the boreal forest. In this series, our experts focus on management and sustainable development issues, natural disturbances, the ecology of terrestrial wildlife and aquatic ecosystems, northern agriculture and the cultural and economic importance of the boreal forest for Indigenous peoples. We hope you have a pleasant — and informative — walk through the forest!</em></p>
<hr>
<h2>Flammable landscapes and weather fronts</h2>
<p>Fires are an important component of the boreal region, burning off old trees and leading to a regeneration of the forest. After a fire, shrubs and deciduous trees grow more quickly and form the canopy, and are eventually replaced by slower-growing spruce. This results in a landscape which is a mosaic of patches, each the size of a fire. </p>
<p>More fires may lead to more of the landscape being in an earlier stage of the post-fire succession growth, including less-flammable shrubs and deciduous trees. At present, the forest is more flammable, as more of the landscape is dominated by spruce, and this is a legacy of the recent past.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-extreme-fires-transform-alaskas-boreal-forest-deciduous-trees-put-a-brake-on-carbon-loss-and-how-fast-the-forest-burns-158995">As extreme fires transform Alaska's boreal forest, deciduous trees put a brake on carbon loss and how fast the forest burns</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513485/original/file-20230304-2482-h5a5e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a row of trees on a hill" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513485/original/file-20230304-2482-h5a5e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513485/original/file-20230304-2482-h5a5e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513485/original/file-20230304-2482-h5a5e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513485/original/file-20230304-2482-h5a5e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513485/original/file-20230304-2482-h5a5e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513485/original/file-20230304-2482-h5a5e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513485/original/file-20230304-2482-h5a5e1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The effects of a recent fire can be seen in the background.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Konrad Gajewski)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The nature of the forest-tundra depends on variability in the position of the Arctic front and on the fire history of the region, but also its history over the past few millenia. </p>
<h2>The Québec forest-tundra</h2>
<p>The treeline — the edge of the forest where it meets the tundra — can span from tens to hundreds of kilometres in length. The location of the treeline corresponds to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1940">the average position of the Arctic front</a> — a transition between a cold arctic air mass and warmer air.</p>
<p>In northern Québec, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051%5B0709:TSFTTS%5D2.0.CO;2">forest-tundra is a broad zone</a>. In the lichen woodland, trees grow throughout the entire landscape. After a fire, trees grow back, as the growing season is long enough to enable seedlings to survive. </p>
<p>To the north, the tops of hills no longer have trees, and the altitude of tundra vegetation becomes lower and lower, gradually covering more of the landscape. Trees still grow on the lower elevations, and typically they reproduce after a fire. </p>
<p>Still further north, tundra covers a larger area of the landscape and spruce are now restricted to growing around lakes or in valleys. Spruce here are typically in <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/3673062">krummholz form</a>, with their growth stunted by the cold, windy conditions. Spruce adopts this shrub form when under stress, where the branches remain near the ground with only occasional shoots growing above the snow level. </p>
<p>A small colony of krummholz can maintain itself for centuries in sub-optimal conditions. After a fire, the spruce are killed and there is no reproduction, so over centuries this zone gradually becomes deforested. However, if the climate changes favourably, the trees revert to normal growth and can establish new populations through seeds. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513483/original/file-20230304-26-58pqx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a cluster of spruce growing in a stunted manner" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513483/original/file-20230304-26-58pqx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513483/original/file-20230304-26-58pqx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513483/original/file-20230304-26-58pqx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513483/original/file-20230304-26-58pqx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513483/original/file-20230304-26-58pqx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513483/original/file-20230304-26-58pqx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513483/original/file-20230304-26-58pqx7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Spruce in krummholz formation in northern Québec.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Konrad Gajewski)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate change history</h2>
<p>A long period of cooling or warming makes the zones move south or north. During warm periods, trees grow more to the north, while this doesn’t happen during cold periods.</p>
<p>As the ice sheet that covered nearly all of Canada melted away between 20,000-6,000 years ago, plants migrated north. In the Mackenzie Delta region in the Northwest Territories, the ice retreated relatively early, and trees arrived over 10,000 years ago. </p>
<p>As the ice sheet continued to melt, exposing central Canada, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.02.003">it got cooler in northern Yukon and the Mackenzie Delta area, but warmed in central Canada between 8,000-5,000 years ago</a>. Trees could no longer survive in the northernmost region of the Mackenzie Delta, so the treeline moved south. And in central Canada, trees could now grow further north. Later, as the ice disappeared in Québec, trees migrated into northern Québec. The migration occurred rapidly and changes in the different regions occurred synchronously, but out of phase.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509571/original/file-20230211-14-z6pigq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="ALT" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509571/original/file-20230211-14-z6pigq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509571/original/file-20230211-14-z6pigq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509571/original/file-20230211-14-z6pigq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509571/original/file-20230211-14-z6pigq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509571/original/file-20230211-14-z6pigq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509571/original/file-20230211-14-z6pigq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509571/original/file-20230211-14-z6pigq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The forest-tundra (treeline) in northern Québec. Upper left: lichen woodland. Upper right: southern tree subzone of the forest-tundra. Lower left: northern shrub subzone of the forest-tundra. Lower right: shrub tundra.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Konrad Gajewski)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Plant migration and treeline movement</h2>
<p>Migration of plants in response to climate changes has two components. A slow migration to the north can occur during warming. Seeds are dispersed away from the parent plant and if the climate conditions are suitable, every generation can establish a little further north. Since the climate is always variable, this occurs in starts and stops. </p>
<p>A second — and more important — mechanism is long-distance migration. The transport of seeds or whole trees down rivers, across the snow or ice, or by birds or animals, enables migration of tens to thousands of kilometres in a very short time. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.09.006">This is what seems to have happened in the past</a>, and this process insures rapid migration to new areas due to the warming climate.</p>
<h2>Present-day warming</h2>
<p>During the past 4,000 years, there was a long-term cooling — referred to as neoglaciation — <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.12.025">which is responsible for the nature of the forest-tundra today</a>. Previously, tree populations were more abundant in the forest tundra of northern Québec. As the climate cooled, the trees reverted to shrub form but no longer reproduced. Fires eliminated some, and since there was no reproduction, the region attained its present-day character. </p>
<p>Now, as the climate is warming, krummholz in place will expand, grow and reproduce. Thus, there is a large area where trees can colonize, suggesting the treeline can move rapidly northward. The long-distance transport of seeds across northern Canada will also enable rapid migration. </p>
<p>However, the relative impact of climate warming and increased fires needs to be accounted for. Thus, present warming of northern Canada will impact the northern vegetation in a complex way, with different regions responding differently, and with some processes occurring rapidly, and others with long time lags.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198959/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Konrad Gajewski receives funding from NSERC. </span></em></p>Canada’s boreal forest is affected by global warming, climate change and the frequency of forest fires.Konrad Gajewski, Professor, Geography, Environment and Geomatics, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of OttawaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2006682023-03-06T20:03:48Z2023-03-06T20:03:48ZThe West’s iconic forests are increasingly struggling to recover from wildfires – altering how fires burn could boost their chances<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513418/original/file-20230303-330-6oxlv0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C37%2C5044%2C3314&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Hotter-burning fires and a warming climate make it harder for seedlings to survive.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/whitebark-pine-seedling-that-was-planted-a-year-earlier-news-photo/1175616100">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wildfires and severe drought are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021AV000654">killing trees</a> at an alarming rate across the West, and forests are struggling to recover as the planet warms. However, new research shows there are ways to improve forests’ chances of recovery – by altering how wildfires burn.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2208120120">new study</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=A_KoUbQAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">we</a> teamed <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=wOmzxOoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">up</a> with <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Tmjced4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">over</a> 50 other fire ecologists to examine how forests have recovered – or haven’t – in over 10,000 locations after 334 wildfires.</p>
<p>Together, these sites offer an unprecedented look at how forests respond to wildfires and global warming.</p>
<p>Our results are sobering. We found that conifer tree seedlings, such as Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine, are increasingly stressed by high temperatures and dry conditions in sites recovering from wildfires. In some sites, our team didn’t find any seedlings at all. That’s worrying, because whether forests recover after a wildfire depends in large part on whether new seedlings can establish themselves and grow.</p>
<p>However, our team also found that if wildfires burn less intensely, forests will have a better shot at regrowing. Our <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2208120120">study</a>, published March 6, 2023, highlights how proactive efforts that modify how wildfires burn can help buffer seedlings from some of the biggest stressors of global warming.</p>
<figure>
<iframe frameborder="0" class="juxtapose" width="100%" height="580" src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=bc939624-b9ec-11ed-b5bd-6595d9b17862"></iframe>
</figure><figure><figcaption>Drag the map’s slider bar from the center to compare how forest recovery is likely to differ between low-severity fires and high-severity fires in the future. K. Davis et al, 2023.</figcaption></figure>
<h2>Intense fires overwhelm trees’ protective traits</h2>
<p>Forests and <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00239">wildfire</a> have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.12828">coexisted</a> in the West for millennia.</p>
<p>Typically, forests have regrown after wildfires, thanks to an amazing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13079">set of traits</a> that trees possess. Lodgepole pine, for example, stores thousands of seeds in closed cones sealed with resin, that only open in the presence of high heat from flames, triggering abundant regrowth. Other tree species, like ponderosa pine, have thick bark that helps them survive low-intensity wildfires.</p>
<p>Intense or very large “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13499">megafires</a>” can overwhelm those traits, though. Most conifer tree species in the West <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-019-0032-1">depend on seeds from surviving trees</a> to jump-start recovery following wildfire. So when intense wildfires kill most of the trees, entire expanses of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biaa061">forest can be lost</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="5Jbwv" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/5Jbwv/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Even if some trees do survive a wildfire and can provide seeds, seedlings <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1815107116">require favorable climate conditions</a> to establish and grow. Unlike adult trees with deep root systems, seedlings have short roots that only reach water in the top layer of soil. Seedlings are also more sensitive to summer temperatures because hot temperatures <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2021.731267">can actually kill</a> their live cells.</p>
<h2>Seedlings struggling to establish after wildfires</h2>
<p>Hotter and drier conditions due to global warming are leading to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc0020">more area burning</a>. Global warming is also interacting with over a century of wildfire suppression and restrictions on <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/58212">Indigenous fire stewardship</a>, which has left denser forests and more underbrush as fuel. And that is <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-years-of-fighting-every-wildfire-helped-fuel-the-western-megafires-of-today-163165">leading to</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089858">more severe wildfires</a>.</p>
<p>It’s also becoming harder for seedlings to establish and grow after wildfires.</p>
<p>We found that from 1981 to 2000, 95% of our study region had climate conditions suitable for seedlings to establish and grow after wildfires. Fast forward to 2050 and this decreases to 74%, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4">even under modest warming</a> where global average temperatures increase by <a href="https://www.climate.gov/media/12886">around 2 degrees Fahrenheit</a> (1.1 Celsius).</p>
<p><iframe id="eCaHR" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/eCaHR/12/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>How these changes unfold varies across the West. Today, seedlings are least likely to establish and grow after wildfires in the Southwest and California. However, the wetter and cooler regions of the northern Rocky Mountains and Pacific Northwest still support seedling establishment and growth.</p>
<h2>Survivor trees are crucial for sheltering seedlings</h2>
<p>By studying both how severely wildfires burn – for example, how many trees are killed – and how climate conditions after a wildfire affect new seedlings, our team found a surprising and hopeful result.</p>
<p>Even when summers are hotter and drier after a wildfire than in the past, just having trees around that survived a fire helps new seedlings establish and grow.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A forest service employee walks up a hill among burned ponderosa pines with no seedlings visible." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513419/original/file-20230303-14-hiyeey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513419/original/file-20230303-14-hiyeey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513419/original/file-20230303-14-hiyeey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513419/original/file-20230303-14-hiyeey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513419/original/file-20230303-14-hiyeey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513419/original/file-20230303-14-hiyeey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/513419/original/file-20230303-14-hiyeey.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Only a quarter of the 900,000 seedlings planted after the 2009 Station Fire in the Angeles National Park were still alive a year later.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/surrounded-by-scorched-trees-steve-bear-station-fire-news-photo/566027399">Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Besides providing seeds, surviving trees reduce temperatures on the ground, where it matters most to seedlings. In some cases, temperatures can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.3467">4 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit cooler</a> (2.2 to 2.8 C) around surviving trees, giving seedlings the edge needed to germinate and survive.</p>
<p>In our study, projections of future forests varied dramatically, depending on how many trees we assumed survived future wildfires. </p>
<h2>Altering how wildfires burn can boost recovery</h2>
<p>This means there is an opportunity to help offset some climate-driven declines in tree recovery – by reducing the number of trees killed in wildfires.</p>
<p>Reversing global warming is a long-term challenge for society, and some <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">near-term impacts are already irreversible</a>. But reducing the number of trees killed in wildfires can help maintain future forests. In regions where seedlings are already struggling after wildfire, such actions are needed sooner rather than later.</p>
<p>Science supports the use of a number of tools, or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2433">forest treatments</a>, that can help decrease the number of trees killed by wildfires.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.05.021">Controlled burning</a> with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.05.021">forest thinning</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119597">cultural burning by local Indigenous groups</a> removes small trees and brush. That <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-years-of-fighting-every-wildfire-helped-fuel-the-western-megafires-of-today-163165">leads to</a> fewer trees killed in subsequent fires, especially in forests that historically burned frequently. In high-elevation forests that historically experienced less frequent but more severe wildfires, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119680">planting trees</a> after wildfires can help jump-start forest recovery.</p>
<p>Although forest treatments are effective, wildfires burn much more area than can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.5849/jof.14-058">feasibly treated</a>. Given this, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.1584">fire scientists</a> suggest <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-020-00077-x">letting some wildfires burn</a> when <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2433">conditions are safe</a> and more likely to leave surviving trees on the landscape.</p>
<p>Expanding the use of wildfires and controlled burning as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab026">management tools</a> is <a href="https://theconversation.com/planned-burns-can-reduce-wildfire-risks-but-expanding-use-of-good-fire-isnt-easy-100806">challenging</a>, but the evidence suggests it may be one of the most <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2433">effective</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.5849/jof.12-021">economical</a> ways to reduce the number of trees killed by future wildfires.</p>
<p>There are clear ways to lessen the impacts of global warming and wildfires on seedlings and future forests. But in some areas, even <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf">as we work to reverse global warming</a>, the window of opportunity is short. In these areas, forest treatments that modify wildfire or jump-start recovery will be most effective in the next few decades, setting up seedlings to better withstand near-term warming.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200668/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberley Davis received funding from The Nature Conservancy and the Department of the Interior North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Peeler receives funding from The Nature Conservancy and United States Geological Survey. She is affiliated with The Nature Conservancy as a NatureNet Science Fellow.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Higuera receives funding from the federally funded Joint Fire Sciences Program, United States Geological Survey, and National Science Foundation.</span></em></p>Over 50 fire ecologists across the Western U.S. took an unprecedented look at how forests in thousands of locations are recovering from fire in a changing climate. The results were alarming.Kimberley Davis, Research Ecologist, United States Forest ServiceJamie Peeler, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of MontanaPhilip Higuera, Professor of Fire Ecology, University of MontanaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1973842023-02-01T16:00:30Z2023-02-01T16:00:30ZWestern wildfires destroyed 246% more homes and buildings over the past decade – fire scientists explain what’s changing<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507476/original/file-20230201-25-abby5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4456%2C2972&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The fire risk goes beyond rising temperatures and dry conditions.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-shady-fire-can-be-seen-on-the-hillside-behind-homes-in-news-photo/1228763017">Samuel Corum / AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It can be tempting to think that the recent wildfire disasters in communities across the West were unlucky, one-off events, but evidence is accumulating that points to a trend.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">new study</a>, we found a 246% increase in the number of homes and structures destroyed by wildfires in the contiguous Western U.S. between the past two decades, 1999-2009 and 2010-2020.</p>
<p>This trend is strongly influenced by major fires in <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2017/">2017</a>, <a href="https://www.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/event/92344/2018-fire-season-in-the-western-united-states">2018</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-year-the-west-was-burning-how-the-2020-wildfire-season-got-so-extreme-148804">2020</a>, including destructive fires in Paradise and Santa Rosa, California, and in Colorado, Oregon and Washington. In fact, in nearly every Western state, more homes and buildings were destroyed by wildfire over the past decade than the decade before, revealing increasing vulnerability to wildfire disasters.</p>
<p>What explains the increasing home and structure loss? </p>
<p>Surprisingly, it’s not just the trend of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc0020">burning more area</a>, or simply <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001795">more homes being built where fires historically burned</a>. While those trends play a role, increasing home and structure loss is outpacing both. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Streets with burned cars and nothing left of homes but ash." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507478/original/file-20230201-18-uh6uyc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Entire neighborhoods were reduced to ash when a wildfire spread into Santa Rosa, California, in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-aerial-view-of-homes-that-were-destroyed-by-the-tubbs-news-photo/860298164">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As fire scientists, we have spent decades studying the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=6HxI4VAAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">causes</a> and <a href="https://earthlab.colorado.edu/our-team/max-cook">impacts of wildfires</a>, in both <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=LyjuxcEAAAAJ&hl=en">the recent</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Tmjced4AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao%22%22">more distant past</a>. It’s clear that the current <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/managing-land/wildfire-crisis">wildfire crisis</a> in the Western U.S. has human fingerprints all over it. In our view, now more than ever, humanity needs to understand its role.</p>
<h2>Wildfires are becoming more destructive</h2>
<p>From 1999 to 2009, an average of 1.3 structures were destroyed for every 4 square miles burned (1,000 hectares, or 10 square kilometers). This average more than doubled to 3.4 during the following decade, 2010-2020.</p>
<p>Nearly every Western state lost more structures for every square mile burned, with the exception of New Mexico and Arizona. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Charts showing rising trend of loses from fires." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=622&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507398/original/file-20230131-12649-12yugh.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=782&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">Adapted from Higuera, et al., PNAS Nexus 2023</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Humans increasingly cause destructive wildfires</h2>
<p>Given the damage from the wildfires you hear about on the news, you may be surprised to learn that <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">88% of wildfires in the West over the past two decades destroyed zero structures</a>. This is, in part, because the majority of area burned (65%) is still due to lightning-ignited wildfires, often in remote areas. </p>
<p>But among wildfires that do burn homes or other structures, humans play a disproportionate role – 76% over the past two decades were started by unplanned human-related ignitions, including backyard burning, downed power lines and campfires. The area burned from human-related ignitions rose 51% between 1999-2009 and 2010-2020.</p>
<p>This is important because wildfires started by human activities or infrastructure have <a href="https://theconversation.com/humans-ignite-almost-every-wildfire-that-threatens-homes-145997">vastly different impacts</a> and characteristics that can make them more destructive. </p>
<p>Unplanned human ignitions typically <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fire3030050">occur near buildings</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-30030-2">tend to burn in grasses</a> that dry out easily and burn quickly. And people have built more homes and buildings in areas surrounded by flammable vegetation, with the number of structures <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">up by 40% over the past two decades across the West</a>, with every state contributing to the trend.</p>
<p>Human-caused wildfires also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114">expand the fire season</a> beyond the summer months when lightning is most common, and they are particularly destructive during late summer and fall when they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092520">overlap with periods of high winds</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, of all the wildfires that destroy structures in the West, human-caused events typically <a href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">destroy over 10 times more</a> structures for every square mile burned, compared to lighting-caused events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing where fires burned in 1999-2009 and 2010-2020, comparing lightning-sparked to human-ignition and the amount of structures burned from each. More structures were burned in human-started fires." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507514/original/file-20230201-19-uvb9zw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=838&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">Adapted from Higuera, et al., PNAS Nexus 2023</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The December 2021 Marshall Fire that destroyed more than 1,000 homes and buildings in the suburbs near Boulder, Colorado, <a href="https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/wildfire/marshall-fire/marshall-fire-cause-investigation-ignition-points/73-18bfe8fa-b034-4879-98ab-32af0008a1ec">fit this pattern to a T</a>. Powerful winds <a href="https://theconversation.com/devastating-colorado-fires-cap-a-year-of-climate-disasters-in-2021-with-one-side-of-the-country-too-wet-the-other-dangerously-dry-173402">sent the fire</a> racing through neighborhoods and vegetation that was unusually dry for late December. </p>
<p>As human-caused <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113">climate change</a> leaves vegetation more flammable later into each year, the consequences of accidental ignitions are magnified.</p>
<h2>Putting out all fires isn’t the answer</h2>
<p>This might make it easy to think that if we just put out all fires, we would be safer. Yet a focus on <a href="https://wildfiretoday.com/2022/03/03/bill-introduced-to-require-suppression-of-all-us-forest-service-fires/">stopping wildfires at all costs</a> is, in part, what <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-smokey-bear-to-climate-change-the-future-of-wildland-fire-management-45082">got the West into its current predicament</a>. Fire risks just accumulate for the future.</p>
<p>The amount of flammable vegetation has increased in many regions because of an absence of burning due to emphasizing fire suppression, preventing <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/58212">Indigenous fire stewardship</a> and a fear of fire in any context, well exemplified by <a href="https://theconversation.com/smokey-the-bear-is-still-keeping-his-watchful-eye-on-americas-forests-after-75-years-on-the-job-120207">Smokey Bear</a>. Putting out every fire quickly removes the positive, <a href="https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/ecological-benefits-fire">beneficial effects of fires</a> in Western ecosystems, including clearing away hazardous fuels so future fires burn less intensely.</p>
<h2>How to reduce risk of destructive wildfires</h2>
<p>The good news is that people have the ability to affect change, now. Preventing wildfire disasters necessarily means minimizing unplanned human-related ignitions. And it requires more than <a href="https://smokeybear.com/">Smokey Bear’s</a> message that “only you can prevent forest fires.” Infrastructure, like downed power lines, <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/5121/campfire_cause.pdf">has caused</a> some of the deadliest wildfires in recent years. </p>
<p>Reducing wildfire risks across communities, states and regions <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/research/treesearch/58436">requires transformative changes</a> beyond individual actions. We need <a href="https://deloitte.wsj.com/articles/fighting-wildfires-with-innovation-01669832378?mod=Deloitte_sus_wsjsf_h1&tesla=y">innovative approaches</a> and <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5c0c">perspectives</a> for <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-wildfire-resistant-communities-in-a-warming-world-174582">how we build</a>, provide power and <a href="https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/64f55848f690452da6c58e5a888ff283">manage lands</a>, as well as mechanisms that ensure changes work <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205825">across socioeconomic levels</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dot chart showing how each state's area and buildings burned changed. Calfiornia, Oregon and the West overall had above average loss and above average burning. Colorado had above average loss and below average burning." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=877&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=877&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/507516/original/file-20230201-24-qtbg4i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=877&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad005">Adapted from Higuera, et al., PNAS Nexus 2023</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Actions to reduce risk will vary, since how people live and how wildfires burn vary widely across the West. </p>
<p>States with large tracts of land with little development, like Idaho and Nevada, can accommodate widespread burning, largely from lighting ignition, with little structure loss. </p>
<p>California and Colorado, for example, require different approaches and priorities. Growing communities can <a href="https://headwaterseconomics.org/wildfire/homes-risk/building-costs-codes/%22%22">carefully plan if and how they build</a> in flammable landscapes, support <a href="https://fireadapted.org/resource/potential-operational-delineations/">wildfire management for risks and benefits</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/bringing-tech-innovation-to-wildfires-4-recommendations-for-smarter-firefighting-as-megafires-menace-the-us-162178">improve firefighting efforts</a> when wildfires do threaten communities.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959">Climate change</a> remains the elephant in the room. Left unaddressed, warmer, drier conditions will exacerbate challenges of living with wildfires. And yet we can’t wait. Addressing climate change can be paired with <a href="https://theconversation.com/well-see-more-fire-seasons-like-2020-heres-a-strategy-for-managing-our-nations-flammable-landscapes-149323">reducing risks immediately to live more safely</a> in an increasingly flammable West.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197384/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Higuera receives funding from the federally funded Joint Fire Sciences Program, United States Geological Survey, and National Science Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Balch receives funding from NSF, Deloitte, JFSP, OPP, and USGS.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maxwell Cook receives funding from the federally funded Joint Fire Sciences Program and the Earth Lab at University of Colorado Boulder, and is a student member of the Ecological Society of America and the American Geophysical Union.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natasha Stavros receives funding from NSF, NASA, Southern California Edison, Deloitte, and AXA XL. She is affiliated with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at the University of Colorado Boulder, owns a company called WKID Solutions LLC and serves as a member on the Hazard Mitigation Enterprise Board for the Colorado State Emergency Response Program.</span></em></p>More homes are burning in wildfires in nearly every Western state. The reason? Humans.Philip Higuera, Professor of Fire Ecology, University of MontanaJennifer Balch, Associate Professor of Geography and Director, Earth Lab, University of Colorado BoulderMaxwell Cook, Ph.D. Student, Dept. of Geography, University of Colorado BoulderNatasha Stavros, Director of the Earth Lab Analytics Hub, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1937702023-01-02T10:25:42Z2023-01-02T10:25:42ZEurope’s ‘pyroregions’: summer 2022 saw 20-year freak fires in regions that are historically immune, close to normal in fire prone areas<p>Over the summer of 2022, the European “fire season” made headlines, and the burned area was said to be “unprecedented” in many countries. However, an examination of historical climate and fire data provides some important context.</p>
<p>Several conclusions were drawn from the <a href="https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/">European Forest Fire Information System</a> (EFFIS), but this dataset is probably not the most appropriate given that its methodologies are constantly being updated. This hampers the analysis of trends over the historical period or the focus on a specific year.</p>
<p>Satellite images have been used for global and regional analysis due to their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.02.013">spatial and temporal consistency</a>, but they may underestimate fires, <a href="https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-73-2021">especially small ones</a> (less than 100 ha). However, the data is homogeneous in time, which is important for comparing fire seasons over long periods. In our research, we used thermal anomalies from satellites, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abd2713">near-real-time proxy of fire activity</a>, widely used in previous studies.</p>
<h2>The 2022 European fire season</h2>
<p>Overall, when aggregating European data (see below) and cumulating the number of thermal anomalies from the beginning of the year, 2022 lies above the long-term average but did not exceed the maximum value observed over the last 20 years. For example, cumulative thermal anomalies were much higher in 2003, 2007, 2012 and 2017, indicating that the 2022 fire season lies within the range of the historical period. This suggests that last summer’s fire season was not unprecedented, contrary to the impression conveyed by the media.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=288&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491190/original/file-20221023-56678-6lb659.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=362&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Daily cumulative thermal anomalies across Europe, derived from MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors over the period 2001-2022 (last updated on 31 August 2022). The grey zone corresponds to the standard deviation (the dispersion of the data with respect to the mean) and the dotted lines indicate the maximum and minimum values over the historical period.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What is causing extreme fire seasons?</h2>
<p>Fire is a complex phenomenon that occurs when three conditions are met: there is an ignition source, fuel is available, and the fuel has low moisture. While the influence of the first two ingredients does not change much from one year to another, fuel moisture explains most of the variations in fire activity.</p>
<p>Indeed, extreme fire seasons are usually associated with <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-70069-z">warm climate conditions</a> that dry out the vegetation and create flammable landscapes. Conditions with strong wind may amplify the fire potential, which can be synthesised in the so-called <a href="https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/background/summary/fwi">fire-weather index</a>.</p>
<p>Locally, fires depend on many unpredictable factors. To iron out these uncertainties and capture overall trends, the data has to be aggregated over larger areas, such as continents or countries. However, aggregating fires within geopolitical borders is rarely the most relevant method to assess natural risks. This is particularly true in Europe, which is very diverse in terms of climate, vegetation, and human activities.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491192/original/file-20221023-62307-i70djw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=604&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Distribution of ‘pyro-regions’ representing different fire characteristics across the continent. Regions with more than 80% non-combustible surface (urban and agricultural surface) are shown in grey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Beyond political classifications, the concept of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12064-010-0082-z">‘pyroregions’</a> - covering areas with specific fire regimes - provides us with a better lens through which to apprehend fire’s spatial heterogeneity. Pyroregions share similar characteristics, such as fire size, frequency, seasonality, and intensity, which ultimately determine <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-021-00791-4">fire impacts</a>. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://lnkd.in/eiBuG3p3">recent study</a>, we presented a pan-European pyrogeography featuring four distinctive pyroregions across the continent. For instance, the southern Iberian peninsula experiences large but less frequent fires than northern Portugal featuring the highest fire frequency and burned area in Europe. In mountainous and traditionally pastoral regions, such as the Pyrenees, parts of the Alps, and Scotland, burned area can be substantial but originates mostly from winter or spring fires (“cool season” fires) due to pastoral and agricultural activities and normally do not put ecosystems at risk.</p>
<p>These pyroregions do not follow administrative, ecological or climate borders, and can be seen as a practical and straightforward way of describing fire patterns across Europe. Understanding similarities and differences among fire regimes are important to inform fire management and prevention.</p>
<h2>Europe’s 2022 saw freak fires in cooler regions</h2>
<p>From June to August 2022, persistent heatwaves unfurled across parts of northwestern and central Europe, breaking temperature records and fanning flames. This is evident when aggregating fire weather conditions and fire activity in terms of anomalies – deviation from the mean – over the historical period and across pyroregions (see below).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/491193/original/file-20221023-62810-a250ri.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate and fire anomalies for each pyroregion. Relative difference in the number of active fires from MODIS Terra/Aqua sensors and fire weather index (FWI) with respect to the historical mean (2001-2021) from June to August. The lines indicate the linear relationship between fire and climate anomalies; dashed lines indicate normal conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Fourni par l'auteur</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In sum, the year 2022 saw <em>“unprecedented”</em> fires in the <em>low-fire prone</em> pyroregion (the least affected usually), with the highest number of fires detected in the last 20 years; 2022 comes second in the <em>cool-season fire</em> pyroregion, usually subject to winter fires. In contrast, fire activity is close to normal in the <em>highly-fire prone</em> pyroregion in southern Europe, the most fire-prone region.</p>
<p>We think that this specificity – fire occurring mostly in regions that are historically relatively immune – helps to explain the 2022 media portrayals.</p>
<h2>Will global heating remap pyroregions in the future?</h2>
<p>Pyroregions also help simulate future changes of fire patterns as the planet warms. Global warming has been shown to increase the frequency and magnitude of fire weather conditions as observed during 2022.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10512410.1">new study</a> (not yet peer reviewed), we found an increase in fire across Europe under global warming. The findings are in line with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-020-00933-5">previous research</a> that projects an increase across southern Europe. For instance, we found an increase in the burned area exceeding 50% across the northern Iberian Peninsula beyond 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels. Our analysis also showed large increases in fire frequency, intensity, fire-season length, and percentage of large fires.</p>
<p>Projections indicate an expansion of fire-prone pyroregions in southern Europe, ranging from 50% to 130% under 2°C and 4°C global-warming scenarios. Under the 4°C scenario, an increase in the burned area, fire intensity, and lengthening of fire period up to three months in some parts of the Balkans, northern Iberian Peninsula, Italy, and western France. In the absence of mitigation or adaptation measures, this expansion may overwhelm national fire suppression capacities and cause substantial social and ecological impacts. </p>
<p>Finally, the abandonment of certain traditional agricultural practices, such as extensive livestock farming, are increasing the forest area and the quantity of biomass available for fire in southern Europe. This phenomenon, combined with urban sprawl and the development of wildland-urban interfaces, will inevitably increase our exposure to fire.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193770/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luiz Felipe Galizia works for AXA Climate.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>François Pimont, Julien Ruffault, Renaud Barbero et Thomas Curt ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.</span></em></p>The forest fires that struck the Continent in the summer of 2022 were devastating, yet historical data shows that they were not ‘unprecedented’, contrary to media accounts.Luiz Felipe Galizia, PhD, InraeFrançois Pimont, Ingénieur de recherche, spécialiste des incendies de forêts, InraeJulien Ruffault, Chercheur postdoctoral sur les incendies de forêts, InraeRenaud Barbero, Chercheur en climatologie, InraeThomas Curt, Directeur de recherche en risque incendie de forêts, InraeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1921312022-11-07T17:13:28Z2022-11-07T17:13:28ZClimate change: carbon offsetting isn’t working – here’s how to fix it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493831/original/file-20221107-21-5gvhig.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C0%2C6000%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The global carbon offsets market is set to continue growing, but scientists and environmentalists remain sceptical.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-man-planting-tree-garden-preserve-1136725715">nBhutinat/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The environmental impact of carbon dioxide emissions will be the same irrespective of where the emissions take place. Carbon emitted in one part of the world can be cancelled out if the same amount is removed elsewhere. </p>
<p>Carbon offsetting is one way of achieving this. Companies can meet their emissions reduction targets by purchasing carbon credits awarded to projects that either emit fewer emissions at source, such as cleaner energy production, or remove them from the atmosphere, such as forestry schemes. Each credit corresponds to one metric tonne of reduced or removed carbon emissions.</p>
<p>The first day of the UN climate summit, COP27, in Egypt saw intense discussions over the trade of carbon offsets. The US sees offsets as a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8272e012-5374-4676-860e-b860b6c01cf5">promising way</a> of directing investment towards clean energy projects in developing countries. </p>
<p>But many scientists and environmentalists are sceptical of companies offsetting their emissions instead of actually reducing them. This has prompted some firms, including <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/26/easyjet-will-stop-offsetting-carbon-emissions-from-planes-roadmap-net-zero">EasyJet</a>, to focus their efforts on reducing their emissions directly. </p>
<p>I am a member of the Climate Change Committee, the UK’s independent climate change advisory body. We have produced a <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/voluntary-carbon-markets-and-offsetting/">report</a> that assesses whether carbon offsetting has supported the UK’s transition towards net zero. The report confirms that the scepticism around carbon offsetting is not unfounded. But we also found ways to improve offsetting.</p>
<h2>Can we rely on carbon offsets?</h2>
<p>Carbon credits are cheap. One tonne of carbon dioxide <a href="https://data.ecosystemmarketplace.com/">costs just £3</a> to offset on average. Companies are also not required to disclose how offsets are being used to meet their net zero targets. They therefore have little incentive to reduce their emissions as they can claim to be net zero while relying entirely on offsetting. </p>
<p>But offsetting often fails to reduce carbon emissions meaningfully. <a href="https://www.carbonfootprint.com/offsetstandards.html">Global carbon credit standards</a> exist to ensure that credits are traceable and meet a minimum verifiable level. However, an emissions reduction may occur whether or not it is paid for with credits. An area of rainforest, for example, will remove carbon from the atmosphere whether or not it has been sold as part of a carbon offsetting scheme.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493562/original/file-20221104-24-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A burned forest next to a a green forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493562/original/file-20221104-24-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493562/original/file-20221104-24-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493562/original/file-20221104-24-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493562/original/file-20221104-24-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493562/original/file-20221104-24-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493562/original/file-20221104-24-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493562/original/file-20221104-24-zex4ii.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Forests are susceptible to wildfire.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/burned-zone-next-green-trees-lightner-716371675">Kara Grubis/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Projects may also not remove emissions permanently. A fire that destroys a forest, for example, will damage the integrity of the credits sold by forestry projects. <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.930426/full">Six forest projects</a> involved in the carbon offsetting market in California have released up to 6.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide since 2015 because of fires.</p>
<h2>Seeds of hope</h2>
<p>But if used correctly, carbon offsetting can be an important component of the policy mix as we transition to net zero. A rise in the price of credits would allow offsetting to make a greater contribution to global climate priorities, such as restoring nature. </p>
<p>International <a href="https://www.iisd.org/articles/paris-agreement-article-6-rules">accounting mechanisms</a> were agreed at <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">COP26</a> encouraging countries that sell offsets not to count these emissions savings towards their own climate targets. Within their borders, countries would have to deliver both their domestic targets and any offsetting projects sold to overseas buyers.</p>
<p>This could help raise overall climate ambition in some countries. But national climate targets for countries selling offsets need to be ambitious and the sale of offsets must be monitored to ensure the delivery of offsetting projects.</p>
<p>Woodland covers <a href="https://www.woodlandtrust.org.uk/state-of-uk-woods-and-trees/">roughly 13%</a> of the UK’s land surface, making it one of the most <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1094162/Working_with_nature_-_report.pdf">nature-depleted</a> nations on the planet. Despite this, less than 1% of the carbon offsets purchased by the 350 largest listed companies on the London Stock Exchange go towards <a href="https://vcmintegrity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Summary-of-Consultation-Interviews.pdf">restoring UK nature</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493559/original/file-20221104-11-o26op0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Rows of planted trees in a field in front of a forest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493559/original/file-20221104-11-o26op0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493559/original/file-20221104-11-o26op0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493559/original/file-20221104-11-o26op0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493559/original/file-20221104-11-o26op0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493559/original/file-20221104-11-o26op0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493559/original/file-20221104-11-o26op0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493559/original/file-20221104-11-o26op0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Woodland creation in the UK.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/woodland-creation-biodivers-uk-native-trees-1498848269">Callums Trees/Shutterstock</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>However, offsetting could provide the finance required to restore UK nature. <a href="https://woodlandcarboncode.org.uk/">Quality standards</a> are being developed for woodland and peatland creation projects in the UK, detailing the scale of restoration needed to deliver climate and biodiversity targets. </p>
<p>They require projects to last for a minimum of 70 years and demand the creation of buffers in the form of additional tree planting and peat restoration to insure against project failure. Our report suggests that these standards could lead to £1 billion of funding each year for UK nature restoration projects. </p>
<p>We also found that the purchase of carbon credits could raise £400 million of funding each year for emerging climate technologies in the UK. One such technology is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/worlds-largest-plant-capturing-carbon-air-starts-iceland-2021-09-08/">direct air capture</a>, which involves pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it underground. Purchasing credits in long-term carbon removal projects such as this represent an attractive option for industries that cannot easily curb their emissions, such as the aviation industry.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A diagram showing the process of direct air capture." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493823/original/file-20221107-3609-9nbzq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/493823/original/file-20221107-3609-9nbzq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493823/original/file-20221107-3609-9nbzq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493823/original/file-20221107-3609-9nbzq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493823/original/file-20221107-3609-9nbzq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493823/original/file-20221107-3609-9nbzq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/493823/original/file-20221107-3609-9nbzq2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carbon offsetting can provide the finance for important climate technologies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-vector/direct-air-capture-co2-filtering-reduce-2090709838">VectorMine/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Offsets can work</h2>
<p>Since 2018, the global market for offsets has grown <a href="https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/publications/state-of-the-voluntary-carbon-markets-2021/">five-fold</a> and is set to continue growing. But further steps must be taken to ensure that carbon offsets are used correctly.</p>
<p>Guidance over how a company is using carbon offsetting must be improved. A company should only be able to claim that they are net zero when they have minimised their own emissions and are using offsetting to compensate for the rest. </p>
<p>The UK government is developing its own regulations for businesses through a <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/fact-sheet-net-zero-aligned-financial-centre/fact-sheet-net-zero-aligned-financial-centre">net zero transition plan</a>. The plan will require organisations to disclose the steps they are taking to transition towards net zero. This involves setting out how offsetting contributes to these targets, enabling an independent assessment of how far organisations are reducing their emissions. </p>
<p>Efforts to improve UK and international standards for carbon offsetting projects should be accelerated. Standards are being developed in the UK for carbon credits associated with restoring kelp beds off our coasts, improving carbon storage in our soils, and planting hedgerows. They will support climate and biodiversity goals while providing a financial incentive for farmers. </p>
<p>For overseas projects, a set of standards could be internationally agreed, possibly based on the <a href="https://icvcm.org/">Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market’s Core Carbon Principles</a>. With a trusted set of standards, businesses can be confident that they are investing in high-quality offsetting projects. </p>
<p>Carbon offsetting should support attempts to reduce an organisations emissions, not provide an alternative. By improving guidance on the use of offsetting, businesses can be encouraged to reduce their emissions directly. But through financing climate change mitigation and nature restoration, carbon offsetting can play an important role in the transition to net zero.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192131/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Piers Forster receives funding from the European Horizons Research Programme and the UK Research Council. He is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee. He is Trustee of the United Bank of Carbon woodland research and restoration charity. </span></em></p>Carbon offsetting is often met with scepticism, but a new report suggests that if correctly designed it can be an important part of the net zero transition.Piers Forster, Professor of Physical Climate Change; Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1873062022-08-01T18:09:42Z2022-08-01T18:09:42ZNew research reveals that wildfires can influence El Niño<p>Wildfire is a phenomenon that has affected pretty much every vegetated environment on Earth for millions of years. However, during the past few decades, the planet has been experiencing extraordinary wildfire activity, with widespread devastation in diverse places such as the Mediterranean, North and South America, Southeast Asia, Australia and even Siberia. The current year has already shown troubling signs of massive fires – for example, Europe’s total burnt area for the 2022 fire season is four times greater than the 2006-2021 average, according to the <a href="https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/">European Forest Fire Information System</a> (EFFIS).</p>
<p>In addition to causing direct damage to ecosystems and communities, wildfires also lead to enormous quantities of pollutants being emitted into the atmosphere. Globally, wildfire emissions upset the carbon cycle and the Earth’s radiation equilibrium; a phenomenon known as<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/climate-forcing">climate forcing</a>. They also influence temperature, clouds and rainfall, prompting air quality degradation and the subsequent death of around 300,000 people every year.</p>
<p>Despite the fact that catastrophic wildfires are rapidly intensifying and that their effects on people and the environment can be drastic, it is one of the most poorly understood processes in the Earth system. Given that wildfires emit greenhouse gases and aerosols (tiny smoke particles) that affect radiation in the atmosphere, it is expected with high confidence that they also result in disturbances to global and regional climate. </p>
<h2>The limits of current models</h2>
<p>However, the extent of such effects is highly uncertain. Models currently used for predicting the evolution of future climate, such as those participating in simulation experiments in support of the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/">Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change</a> (IPCC) reports, either do not include a representation of wildfire effects or do so in a way that is not satisfactory. Without models that can accurately represent influences of climate change on wildfires, and, in turn, influences of wildfire-generated pollution on climate (i.e., fire-climate feedbacks), the future climate change predictions that we have available as a society might be suffering from significant biases.</p>
<p>Fire emissions do not only have the potential to influence long-term climate, but they can also alter short-term weather conditions in different parts of the globe. This is also a poorly understood scientific topic, despite the existence of some sporadic studies that have attempted to examine it. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://centreforwildfires.org/news/simulations-show-large-human-made-wildfires-in-indonesia-impact-on-el-nino-weather/">recent set of experiments</a> by our team of climate scientists from the UK and Greece is shedding light on this question. The work involved a set of novel state-of-the-art climate model simulations of <a href="https://theconversation.com/el-nino-quest-ce-que-cest-47645">El Niño</a> events, through which the impact of intense wildfire emissions over Equatorial Asia that have accompanied strong El Niño events in recent decades have been quantified.</p>
<h2>Longer dry seasons in Asia</h2>
<p>El Niño is a climate phenomenon with significant societal impact, altering weather patterns around the Pacific region, as well as in multiple regions across the globe. One consequence is a deeper and prolonged dry season in Equatorial Asia. During recent large El Niño events, such as in 1997 and 2015, this has combined with expanding agricultural land clearance to produce vast fires in peat-dominated areas. These are some of the largest fires on Earth, attracting both scientific and media attention due to the blanket of smoke they produce across the region lasting several weeks, impacting the health of millions of people.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475176/original/file-20220720-23-3gyxga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Smoke from wildfires hangs over the countryside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475176/original/file-20220720-23-3gyxga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/475176/original/file-20220720-23-3gyxga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475176/original/file-20220720-23-3gyxga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475176/original/file-20220720-23-3gyxga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475176/original/file-20220720-23-3gyxga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475176/original/file-20220720-23-3gyxga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/475176/original/file-20220720-23-3gyxga.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The 2015 fire season in Indonesia left behind a smoky pall that reached around the globe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/nasaearthobservatory/23451153146">NASA/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>Previous literature has focused on the magnitude of these El Niño-driven smoke emissions and their serious health impacts. However, there has been surprisingly little research on the climate feedback of this transient but very large aerosol radiative forcing. The hypothesis of the new study is that these smoke emissions can drastically influence atmospheric conditions in the western Pacific and therefore modify the development of the El Niño phenomenon itself.</p>
<p>The study represents the first time that the impact of intense smoke emissions over Equatorial Asia have been investigated in <a href="https://centreforwildfires.org/news/simulations-show-large-human-made-wildfires-in-indonesia-impact-on-el-nino-weather/">full-complexity climate simulations</a>. These allowed the researchers to compare the development of El Niño events with and without the presence of large wildfire emissions from Equatorial Asia, using the intense 1997 fire season as a test case. </p>
<h2>Wildfires’ impact on El Niño</h2>
<p>The findings suggest that the intense smoke emissions result in a strong lower atmospheric heating over Equatorial Asia, which enhances local convection (ascending motion of air), cloud concentration and rainfall over the Maritime Continent. This in turn shifts cloud cover westward in the Pacific, and significantly strengthens the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/walker-circulation">“Walker circulation”</a>, which is the typical pattern of air flow in the tropical lower atmosphere. This opposes the typical El Niño circulation in the Pacific (which is a weakening of the Walker circulation) and results in a negative feedback on the El Niño event itself. The researchers find that the El Niño event is weakened by around 22% on average due to the wildfire emissions that the El Niño event itself produces.</p>
<p>As well as being an indication of the climate impact that these exceptional El Niño-driven fire seasons in Indonesia can have, these findings also have clear implications for El Niño predictability. Including the impact of enhanced wildfire emissions during large El Niño events can significantly influence the progression and intensity of the El Niño itself. More generally, these findings pave the way for more such studies investigating the implications of fire-generated pollution for atmospheric circulation, rainfall, and temperatures, in a variety of world regions, both on short (weather) and on long (climate) timescales.</p>
<p>In addition to the scientific significance of this research, it also has the potential to significantly impact a variety of economic sectors and societal stakeholders. Better weather and climate forecasts resulting from an improved representation of wildfires in models is expected to lead to better-informed policy making, and to higher-quality weather/climate information available to businesses and to society as a whole.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=121&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/202296/original/file-20180117-53314-hzk3rx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=152&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em>Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the Axa Research Fund has been supporting nearly 600 projects around the world conducted by researchers from 54 countries. To learn more, visit the site of the <a href="https://www.axa-research.org/en/">Axa Research Fund</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Kasoar receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust, through the Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society. Climate modelling capabilities which were used in this research were provided by the Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme, which is a strategic partnership between the UK Met Office and the Natural Environment Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Apostolos Voulgarakis ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Wildfires are intensifying, yet they’re one of the most poorly understood phenomena on Earth. New research shows that they can disturb both regional and global climate.Apostolos Voulgarakis, AXA Chair in Wildfires and Climate Director, Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment & Climate Change, Technical University of CreteMatthew Kasoar, Research Associate at the Leverhulme Centre for Wildfires, Environment and Society, Imperial College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1840312022-07-13T12:29:22Z2022-07-13T12:29:22ZA case for retreat in the age of fire<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468550/original/file-20220613-13-iu12qi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C2957%2C1934&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After the 2018 wildfire in Paradise, Calif., many fire-damaged homes were razed.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-aerial-view-of-a-neighborhood-destroyed-by-the-camp-fire-news-photo/1182727469">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Wildfires in the American West are getting <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1617464114">larger, more frequent and more severe</a>. Although efforts are underway to create fire-adapted communities, it’s important to realize that we cannot simply design our way out of wildfire – some communities will need to begin planning a retreat.</p>
<p>Paradise, California, <a href="https://www.air-worldwide.com/blog/posts/2018/12/why-did-paradise-burn-10-years-after-the-siege-of-2008/">worked for decades to reduce</a> its fire risk by removing dry grasses, brush and forest overgrowth in the surrounding wildlands. It built firebreaks to prevent fires from spreading, and <a href="https://www.buttecounty.net/Portals/14/Evac%20Maps/2015_Countywide_CWPP_FINAL.pdf">promoted defensible space</a> around homes.</p>
<p>But in 2018, a fire sparked by wind-damaged power lines swept up the ravine and destroyed over 18,800 structures. <a href="https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/5121/campfire_cause.pdf">Eighty-five people died</a>. It’s just one example.</p>
<p>Across the America West and in other fire-risk countries, thousands of communities <a href="https://riskfactor.com/city/paradise-ca/655520_fsid/fire">like Paradise</a> are at risk. Many, if not most, are in the wildland-urban interface, a zone between undeveloped land and urban areas where both wildfires and unchecked growth are common. From 1990 to 2010, new housing in the wildland-urban interface in the continental U.S. <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718850115">grew by 41%</a>. By 2020, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/09/climate/growing-wildfire-risk-homes.html">more than 16</a> <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/rds/archive/catalog/RDS-2015-0012-3">million homes</a> were in fire-prone areas in the West.</p>
<p>Whether in the form of large, master-planned communities or incremental, house-by-house construction, developers have been placing new homes in danger zones.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469582/original/file-20220617-12-b94big.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing wildfire risk highest in the Western U.S. and southern Plains, particularly the mountains." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469582/original/file-20220617-12-b94big.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/469582/original/file-20220617-12-b94big.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469582/original/file-20220617-12-b94big.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469582/original/file-20220617-12-b94big.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469582/original/file-20220617-12-b94big.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469582/original/file-20220617-12-b94big.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/469582/original/file-20220617-12-b94big.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Assesses fire risk at the local level can help communities understand and prepare. The map reflects the probability wildfire will occur in an area in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://firststreet.org/research-lab/published-research/article-highlights-from-fueling-the-flames/">First Street Foundation Wildfire Model</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Four years after the Paradise fire, the town’s population was <a href="https://www.abc10.com/article/news/local/paradise/paradise-repopulation-hopes/103-a9b04286-580d-462d-9e64-eaa353a565d9">less than 30% of what it once was</a>. This makes Paradise one of the first documented cases of voluntary retreat in the face of wildfire risk. And while the notion of wildfire retreat is controversial, politically fraught and not yet endorsed by the general public, as experts in urban planning and environmental design, we believe the necessity for retreat will become increasingly unavoidable.</p>
<p>But retreat isn’t only about wholesale moving. Here are four <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Design-Fire-Resistance-Co-Creation-Pyrocene/dp/0367767619">forms of retreat being used</a> to keep people out of harm’s way. </p>
<h2>Limiting future development</h2>
<p>On one end of the wildfire retreat spectrum are development-limiting policies that create stricter standards for new construction. These might be employed in moderate-risk areas or communities disinclined to change. </p>
<p>An example is San Diego’s steep hillside guidelines that restrict construction in areas with significant grade change, as wildfires burn faster uphill. In the guidelines, steep hillsides have a gradient of at least 25% and a vertical elevation of at least 50 feet. In most cases, new buildings cannot encroach into this zone and must be located <a href="https://www.sandiego.gov/sites/default/files/legacy/development-services/pdf/industry/landdevmanual/ldmsteephillsides.pdf">at least 30 feet from the hillside</a>. </p>
<p>While development-limiting policies like this prevent new construction in some of the most hazardous conditions, they often cannot eliminate fire risk.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Illustration of a home set back from a road on a steep hillside" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468316/original/file-20220610-28923-lsrkvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468316/original/file-20220610-28923-lsrkvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468316/original/file-20220610-28923-lsrkvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468316/original/file-20220610-28923-lsrkvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468316/original/file-20220610-28923-lsrkvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468316/original/file-20220610-28923-lsrkvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468316/original/file-20220610-28923-lsrkvk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Development-limiting policies can include stricter construction standards. The illustration shows the difference between a home on a steep, wooded hillside that is hard to defend from fire and one farther from the slope.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emily Schlickman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Halting new construction</h2>
<p>Further along the spectrum are construction-halting measures, which prevent new construction to manage growth in high-risk parts of the wildland-urban interface. </p>
<p>These first two levels of action could both be implemented using basic urban planning tools, starting with county and city general plans and zoning, and subdivision ordinances. For example, Los Angeles County recently updated its <a href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/los-angeles-county-moves-to-limit-new-sprawl-in-fire-prone-areas-2022-04-05/">general plan to limit new sprawl in wildfire hazard zones</a>. Urban growth boundaries could also be adopted locally, as many suburban communities north of San Francisco have done, or could be mandated by states, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/grow.12481">as Oregon did in 1973</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two illustrations, one of a new subdivision, the other of a few homes." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468315/original/file-20220610-25540-ut1xhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468315/original/file-20220610-25540-ut1xhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468315/original/file-20220610-25540-ut1xhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468315/original/file-20220610-25540-ut1xhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468315/original/file-20220610-25540-ut1xhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468315/original/file-20220610-25540-ut1xhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468315/original/file-20220610-25540-ut1xhv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Halting construction and managing growth in high-risk parts of the wildland-urban interface is another retreat tool.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emily Schlickman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To assist the process, states and the federal government could designate <a href="https://firststreet.org/risk-factor/">fire-risk areas</a>, similar to Federal Emergency Management Agency flood maps. <a href="https://osfm.fire.ca.gov/divisions/community-wildfire-preparedness-and-mitigation/wildfire-preparedness/fire-hazard-severity-zones/">California already designates zones</a> with three levels of fire risk: moderate, high and very high.</p>
<p>They could also develop fire-prone landscape zoning acts, similar to legislation that has helped <a href="https://www.coastal.ca.gov/coastalvoices/IntroductionToCoastalAct.pdf">limit new development along coasts</a>, <a href="https://legal-planet.org/2019/04/04/california-adopts-new-welcome-wetlands-protection-rules/">on wetlands</a> and <a href="https://www.conservation.ca.gov/cgs/Documents/Publications/Special-Publications/SP_042.pdf">along earthquake faults</a>. </p>
<p>Incentives for local governments to adopt these frameworks could be provided through planning and technical assistance grants or preference for infrastructure funding. At the same time, states or federal agencies could refuse funding for local authorities that enable development in severe-risk areas. </p>
<p>In some cases, state officials <a href="https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-becerra-seeks-intervene-litigation-over-wildfire-risk-san-diego">might turn to the courts</a> to stop county-approved projects to prevent loss of life and property and reduce the costs that taxpayers might pay to maintain and protect at-risk properties</p>
<p><a href="https://www.lakeconews.com/news/71403-judge-rules-lake-county-must-set-aside-approval-of-maha-guenoc-valley-resort-project">Three</a><a href="https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2021/10/07/judge-finds-environmental-review-of-huge-otay-ranch-projects-failed-to-account-for-wildfire-risks/">high-profile</a> <a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/communities/east-county/story/2022-03-11/court-rejects-santee-housing-development-over-environmental-concerns">projects</a> in California’s wildland-urban interface have been stopped in the courts because their environmental impact reports fail to adequately address the increased wildfire risk that the projects create. (Full disclosure: For a short time in 2018, one of us, Emily Schlickman, worked as a design consultant on one of these – an experience that inspired this article.)</p>
<h2>Incentives to encourage people to relocate</h2>
<p>In severe risk areas, the technique of “incentivized relocating” could be tested to help people move out of wildfire’s way through programs such as voluntary buyouts. Similar programs have been used after floods. </p>
<p>Local governments would work with FEMA to offer eligible homeowners the pre-disaster value of their home <a href="https://sema.dps.mo.gov/docs/programs/LRMF/mitigation/FAQ2016.pdf">in exchange for not rebuilding</a>. To date, this type of federally backed buyout program has yet to be implemented for wildfire areas, but some vulnerable communities have developed their own.</p>
<p>The city of Paradise created a buyout program funded with nonprofit grant money and donations. However, only <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/08/23/1028126348/in-fire-scorched-california-town-aims-to-buy-the-highest-at-risk-properties">300 acres of patchworked parcels have been acquired</a>, suggesting that stronger incentives and more funding may be required. </p>
<p>Removing government-backed fire insurance plans or instituting variable fire insurance rates based on risk could also encourage people to avoid high-risk areas.</p>
<p>Another potential tool is a “transferable development rights” framework. Under such a framework, developers wishing to build more intensively in lower-risk town centers could purchase development rights from landowners in rural areas where fire-prone land is to be preserved or returned to unbuilt status. The rural landowners are thus compensated for the lost use of their property. These frameworks have been used for growth management purposes <a href="https://montgomeryplanning.org/planning/agricultural-reserve/transferable-development-rights/">in Montgomery County, Maryland</a>, and in <a href="https://www.mass.gov/service-details/smart-growth-smart-energy-toolkit-modules-transfer-of-development-rights-tdr">Massachusetts</a> and <a href="https://www.bouldercounty.org/property-and-land/land-use/planning/transferable-development-rights-tdr/">Colorado</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two illustrations, one showing lots of homes. The other only a few, with old home sites evident." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468317/original/file-20220610-20-myvy0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468317/original/file-20220610-20-myvy0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468317/original/file-20220610-20-myvy0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468317/original/file-20220610-20-myvy0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468317/original/file-20220610-20-myvy0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468317/original/file-20220610-20-myvy0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468317/original/file-20220610-20-myvy0f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Incentivized relocating can be used in severe risk areas by subsidizing the movement of some people out of wildfire’s way. The illustrations show what before and after might look like.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emily Schlickman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Moving entire communities, wholesale</h2>
<p>Vulnerable communities may want to relocate but don’t want to leave neighbors and friends. “Wholesale moving” involves managing the entire resettlement of a vulnerable community. </p>
<p>While this technique has yet to be implemented for wildfire-prone areas, there is a long history of its use <a href="https://issues.org/true-stories-managed-retreat-rising-waters-pinter/">after catastrophic floods</a>. One place it is currently being used is Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana, which has <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/people-isle-jean-charles-are-louisianas-first-climate-refugees-they-wont-be-last/">lost 98% of its landmass since 1955 because of erosion and sea level rise</a>. In 2016, the community received a federal grant to plan a retreat to higher ground, including the design of a <a href="https://isledejeancharles.la.gov/">new community center</a> 40 miles north and upland of the island. </p>
<p>This technique, though, has drawbacks – from the complicated logistics and support needed to move an entire community to the time frame needed to develop a resettlement plan to potentially overloading existing communities with those displaced. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two illustrations, the first with many houses in a community. The other with none." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468318/original/file-20220610-45569-yx6u66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/468318/original/file-20220610-45569-yx6u66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468318/original/file-20220610-45569-yx6u66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468318/original/file-20220610-45569-yx6u66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468318/original/file-20220610-45569-yx6u66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468318/original/file-20220610-45569-yx6u66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/468318/original/file-20220610-45569-yx6u66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In extreme risk areas, wholesale moving could be an approach – managing the resettlement of an entire vulnerable community to a safer area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Emily Schlickman</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Even with ideal landscape management, wildfire risks to communities will continue to increase, and retreat from the wildland-urban interface will become increasingly necessary. The primary question is whether that retreat will be planned, safe and equitable, or delayed, forced and catastrophic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184031/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emily Schlickman previously worked as a design consultant on Guenoc Valley Resort, a project referenced in the article.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brett Milligan and Stephen M. Wheeler do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Managed retreat is already common in flood-prone areas, but what about in neighborhoods at high risk from wildfires? Here are four ways communities can pull back for safety.Emily E. Schlickman, Assistant Professor of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Design, University of California, DavisBrett Milligan, Associate Professor of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Design, University of California, DavisStephen M. Wheeler, Professor of Urban Design, Planning, and Sustainability, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.