tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/frexit-29530/articlesFrexit – The Conversation2017-05-09T12:19:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/774152017-05-09T12:19:23Z2017-05-09T12:19:23ZMacron’s daunting to-do list: unite a nation, form a government, reform Europe<p>The French presidential election campaign delivered as many twists and turns as a soap opera. But it ended with an air of predictability. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/emmanuel-macron-33770">Emmanuel Macron</a> polled two thirds of votes cast compared to Marine Le Pen’s one third. There was no late surge from Le Pen. Her performance in the only television debate between the two rounds illustrated how difficult it is for radical right leaders to move from being the anti-system candidate to serious contender.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/from-wannabe-to-president-how-emmanuel-macron-beat-marine-le-pen-to-win-the-french-election-77302">Le Pen</a> and her entourage will take some solace from the fact that she polled around 11m votes in the second-round run-off – 3.4m more than in the first – but the result will nevertheless be perceived by some in the Front National inner circle as disappointing. Given the ongoing difficulties in the eurozone, France’s high <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/france/unemployment-rate">unemployment rate</a> (particularly among the under 25s), the refugee crisis, the terrorist security threat, Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory in the US, the prevailing demand-side conditions could not have been more favourable for the Front National. This is, after all, a party whose whole campaign was built around the notion of a perceived cleavage between globalists (as represented by Macron) and patriots (as represented by Le Pen).</p>
<p>Although Front National strategists such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/31/florian-philippot-could-make-marine-le-pen-president-france">Florian Philippot</a> have always had one eye on the long-term game and the possibility of victory in 2022, it’s not a given that the Front National can continue to grow in electoral terms if the demand-side conditions do not remain as favourable. The party has worked tirelessly to detoxify its image over the past decade but doubts remain as to whether an historically anti-system, radical-right party is capable of positioning itself as a party of government. </p>
<h2>Govern and unite</h2>
<p>Much will of course depend on whether Macron can heal the divisions in France that were so evident during the campaign. His first priorities will be logistical. He must choose a prime minister and seek a mandate at next month’s legislative elections.</p>
<p>Given that a majority of his voters in the second round would have preferred to back an alternative candidate, securing a majority for his fledgling movement, En Marche! (just renamed La République en Marche), in the National Assembly will be far from straightforward. Macron may well be forced to reach out to sympathetic socialists and centre-right républicains to obtain a working majority in the lower chamber. The latter, following the defeat of candidate <a href="https://theconversation.com/francois-fillons-coup-de-theatre-shocks-and-dismays-73877">François Fillon</a> in the first round, will be looking to re-establish themselves as the biggest party in the National Assembly.</p>
<p>The logistical problems of obtaining a working majority to fulfil his campaign pledges will be just the start of the challenges facing Macron’s administration. While his campaign (and others for that matter) have demonstrated a dilution of the traditional French left-right cleavage, the result has only served to underline the social fracture that exists in France. This is well illustrated by the distribution of the Macron vote. It’s no coincidence that around nine out of ten voters <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/french-election-results-analysis/">backed Macron</a> in London and Paris. How he reaches out to those citizens who remain static in their social mobility, many of whom feel disconnected from and alienated by globalisation, will be crucial.</p>
<p>In his manifesto, the new president emphasised educational and economic reform as a means of generating social and economic mobility. But the stark reality is that such reforms may prove difficult to implement in a country often hostile to major structural change.</p>
<h2>The European question</h2>
<p>One of the strategic problems facing Macron, and one central to the so-called “globalist versus patriot” tension, is how to pitch the European question. Although the French electorate doesn’t seem ready to jettison the euro, it has become increasingly sceptical about the role of the European Union. Macron (a self-proclaimed europhile) was not scared to wrap his campaign in the European flag. He even played Beethoven’s Ode to Joy (the EU anthem) as he delivered his victory speech.</p>
<p>Le Pen has, in contrast, increasingly used opposition to the EU as a strategic driver in an attempt to widen the party’s electoral base. This has been a particularly successful tactic in the north of France, where post-industrial unemployment makes it difficult for many to see economic globalisation in a positive light.</p>
<p>How Macron deals with the European question will be crucial to the success of his presidency. He has stated that strengthening the Franco-German axis is central to his project – something which most of the electorate are likely, at least for the time being, to tolerate. However, Macron will also need to convince his doubters, including some of the 12% who either spoiled their ballot papers or failed to mark them, not to mention the quarter of the registered electorate who did not vote in the second round. To help win them over, he must demonstrate that he is prepared to fully embrace the reform agenda which the EU has often tried to dodge. </p>
<p>Solidifying the eurozone and developing the EU’s defence and security arm are obvious directions of travel but Macron will also need to demonstrate that he is prepared to visit more contentious issues if he is to keep the electorate on board. In talks with EU leaders, he shouldn’t shy away from re-examining the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/05/is-the-schengen-dream-of-europe-without-borders-becoming-a-thing-of-the-past">Schengen area</a> and developing a more robust EU-wide response to the EU’s horribly high levels of youth unemployment.</p>
<p>And while it would take a bold French president to seek radical reform of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-eu-common-agricultural-policy-56329">Common Agricultural Policy</a>, perhaps now is the time for boldness. France has a historic, protective stance on the CAP, but it continues to gobble up nearly 40% of the EU budget. Diverting those funds into tackling social problems in EU nation states remains something of a pipe dream.</p>
<p>Failure to fully embrace the reform agenda within the EU could soon damage Macron’s popularity ratings. France is at a crossroads. The direction it takes under Macron will have a massive baring not only on the future of the nation, but also on the future of the EU.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/77415/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nicholas Startin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The self-confessed europhile will need to respond to concerns about the EU if he is to succeed as French president.Nicholas Startin, Senior Lecturer in French and European Politics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/762492017-04-18T14:35:15Z2017-04-18T14:35:15ZFrench election: where the candidates stand on foreign policy<p>The first round of the French presidential elections will take place on April 23. Foreign policy has traditionally played a central role during presidential campaigns, but this has not been the case this time around. This can partly be explained by the unusually high number of candidates (11 in total), the fact that what matters to the French today seems limited to what is happening within France, and the focus of the journalists on domestic issues. </p>
<p>So, what can be expected in terms of foreign policy from the four leading candidates from the extreme left to extreme right: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon, and Marine Le Pen?</p>
<h2>The European Union</h2>
<p>Europe has been one of the most debated foreign policy issues during this election campaign. A win for Macron, the centrist independent representing his En Marche! movement, would please europhiles, since he is by far the most pro-European candidate. As well as expressing his support for the survival of the EU, he even wants to expand its capacity. For instance, he proposes to further develop Europe’s defence capability by creating a European security council. It would be composed of “<a href="https://en-marche.fr/emmanuel-macron/le-programme/defense">military, diplomats, and intelligence experts</a>” and would advise the key European decision makers on defence related issues. </p>
<p>Mélenchon from the far-left France Insoumise party, and Le Pen of the Front National are both highly eurosceptic. Mélenchon wants to dramatically renegotiate the terms of the union and to leave if that process fails. Le Pen wants to take France out of the eurozone and to propose a referendum on a full “Frexit”.</p>
<p>Fillon, from the right wing Les Républicains is not as pro-Europe as Macron but remains committed to the regional organisation. However, he wants reforms to take place in order to address some of the perceived weaknesses of the EU, in particular in terms of security and the governance of the eurozone.</p>
<h2>Syria (and Russia)</h2>
<p>Apart from Le Pen, who does not explicitly mention Syria in her manifesto, the other three candidates have argued that France needs to be actively involved in resolving the conflict. But they take different views of what should happen to Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president.</p>
<p>Mélenchon’s position is not clear while Fillon’s has shifted: he used to tolerate Assad because the priority was to eradicate terrorism and the Syrian leader was seen as a tool to achieve this goal. In <a href="https://www.fillon2017.fr/projet/politique-etrangere/">his programme</a>, Fillon suggested that anyone fighting so-called Islamic State (IS), including – if necessary – the current regime, would be an ally of France in Syria. However, Fillon’s reaction to the regime’s recent chemical attack against civilians appears to suggest that this is no longer the case. In an <a href="https://www.franceinter.fr/emissions/geopolitique/geopolitique-06-avril-2017">interview after the attack</a>, he declared that he wanted to talk with the Russians and others in order to begin organising a political transition to put an end to the massacres. </p>
<p>Since the beginning of the conflict, Le Pen has supported the idea that Assad is <a href="http://fr.reuters.com/article/topNews/idFRKBN15Z1AF">“the only viable solution”</a> to the situation in Syria. She condemned the chemical attack, but <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/07/35003-20170407ARTFIG00069-le-fn-decu-par-donald-trump-apres-les-frappes-sur-la-syrie.php">refused to blame</a> Assad until a full international investigation could take place. She also criticised US president, Donald Trump, for authorising airstrikes before such an investigation could occur. </p>
<p>Macron adopts the middle ground. He doesn’t see Assad as being part of the future of Syria but is willing to work with him temporarily. This can be explained by the fact that his priority is to fight IS, but also because in his view, the “Assad must go” approach has put the UN Security Council in a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-vote-idUSKBN17E2LK">state of stalemate</a> for too long. Even though he has consistently criticised the Syrian leader and has expressed his will to see him referred to the International Criminal Court, <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/presidentielles/2017/04/06/35003-20170406ARTFIG00132-comment-les-pretendants-a-l-elysee-comptent-ils-gerer-le-dossier-syrien.php">he also explained after the chemical attack</a> that not all objectives could be achieved at once, therefore suggesting that Assad was here to stay in the immediate future.</p>
<p>The candidates also disagree on what Russia’s role should be in Syria. Mélenchon, Fillon and Le Pen all promote a central role for Russia and have even suggested that the EU sanctions established after the conflict in Ukraine should be lifted. Le Pen also undertook a very controversial visit to Russia to meet with Putin in March 2017, showing her ties with the Russian leader. </p>
<p>Macron deplores what he refers to as his adversaries’ fascination with Putin. He believes the Russian president is key to the conflict resolution, but also wants <a href="http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/ce-que-dit-melenchon-sur-la-syrie-n-est-pas-serieux-selon-macron-1139178.html">Russia to face its responsibilities</a>, in particular when it comes to pressuring the Syrian regime to put an end to the massacres. </p>
<h2>Security and migration</h2>
<p>The fight against terrorism remains a priority for all the candidates. In light of the recent attacks on French soil and neighbouring countries, this is a major concern for the French population. The main candidates have expressed their willingness to cooperate with any regime that is willing to take part in this fight (even, in some cases, controversial ones like Assad’s).</p>
<p>However, terrorism has mainly been discussed in terms of its domestic implications. Le Pen and Fillon want to strip people who hold dual nationality and are convicted of terrorism of their French nationality – an idea first mooted by the current government. They would also expel any nationals who have gone abroad to fight for terrorist organisations.</p>
<p>Mélenchon sees such an approach as <a href="http://melenchon.fr/2016/01/21/contributions-contre-la-decheance-de-nationalite/">“shameful”</a>. He suggests alternative options, such as the withdrawal of some civil rights (such as voting). Macron seems more indecisive and appears to suggest that it could be an option for people holding double nationality, but only in extreme cases.</p>
<p>Tied to this issue is the question of what to do about French national borders. As part of the Schengen area, there are no checks at the borders with European countries – a practice called into question every time a terrorist attack occurs on French soil.</p>
<p>Le Pen and Mélenchon both want to leave Schengen – although their reasons are not strictly limited to security concerns but are also linked to their vision of an independent and free France.</p>
<p>Macron though wants France to remain within Schengen, but suggests a reinforcement of <a href="http://frontex.europa.eu/">FRONTEX</a> (the European Border and Coast Guard Agency). Fillon goes a step further by arguing that although France needs to remain part of the shared space, the Schengen agreements need to be reformed in order to allow additional measures – such as targeted controls in areas which refugees and immigrants are known to use.</p>
<p>Even though foreign policy has been forgotten during this campaign, its implications will be major, not only for France, but for the rest of Europe and the international community. As such, it should hopefully – although, unlikely – play a more predominant role in the last few days of campaigning and during the two-week wait for the second round of voting for the two leading candidates on May 7.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76249/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Eglantine Staunton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Their policies on Syria, Russia, terrorism and the European Union.Dr Eglantine Staunton, Research fellow, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/728422017-02-28T00:01:26Z2017-02-28T00:01:26ZFrance<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=543&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/158236/original/image-20170224-21964-1iu16lo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=682&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Conversation/Zenobia Ahmed</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the aftermath of the election of US President Donald Trump and the UK’s Brexit referendum, many observers are keeping a watchful eye on how presidential elections play out in France in late April and early May.</p>
<p>Like many European Union states, France has a populist party that is highly critical of the EU. National Front leader Marine Le Pen speaks at her packed rallies of a <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/marine-le-pen-prepares-for-a-frexit">French exit</a>, or Frexit.</p>
<p>France has, for some decades, been Germany’s partner in all major EU policy. This Franco-German linchpin would effectively be abolished if Le Pen wins, with serious implications for the EU. <a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2017/02/06/le-projet-du-fn-tuer-l-europe_5075219_3232.html">An editorial in Le Monde</a> went so far as to say it would kill Europe and that Le Pen presents the EU as the source of France’s ills – and so wishes to “break Europe”.</p>
<p>Le Pen has declared herself to be anti-radical Islam. At her <a href="http://www.vox.com/world/2017/2/6/14522856/marine-le-pen-islam-populism-nativism-trump-frexit-brexit">campaign launch in February</a>, she attacked “two totalitarianisms”, namely globalisation and Islamic fundamentalism.</p>
<p>Many voters are concerned about austerity measures associated with the EU, which are perceived as undermining French desires to control their own state and economy. Youth unemployment in France is high at 26%, and overall unemployment is 10%. Some voters see Le Pen as fighting for French control of these issues.</p>
<p>Populist hyper-nationalist rhetoric is increasingly evident in contemporary France. A narrative of restoring French identity appeals in particular to the disaffected. </p>
<p>Although rival presidential candidates François Fillon, of the right-wing Republican party, and Le Pen are both linked with financial scandals, this does not seem to have had a negative affect to date on Le Pen’s campaign, perhaps because it relates to <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2017/01/31/france-s-le-pen-defies-demand-for-misspent-funds">paying back the European Parliament</a> and not national funding. Fillon, however, may well be obliged to withdraw his candidature.</p>
<p>One candidate who may stand a chance is Emmanuel Macron, former banker and former Socialist government finance minister. As leader of a movement called En Marche, he could be the youngest president ever. His platform is general in content and nation-building in tone, yet he could be the voice of the moderate centre. He has <a href="https://www.neweurope.eu/article/macron-praises-angela-merkel/">expressed admiration</a> for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s welcoming stance towards Syrian refugees.</p>
<p>The Socialists are divided about their candidate, Benoît Hamon, who is more left-wing than President François Hollande and much of the party. The Greens and other smaller parties are expected to garner few votes, despite a desire for change. In addition, observers are keeping an eye on Russian influence on the election.</p>
<p>The prospect of a far-right populist president is a real possibility. It is increasingly thought that Le Pen could get through to the second and final round. The key question then is: who will still be standing in the second round in May to confront her with enough credibility to win?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72842/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philomena Murray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the aftermath of the election of US President Donald Trump and the UK’s Brexit referendum, many observers are keeping a watchful eye on how presidential elections play out in France in late April and…Philomena Murray, Professor, School of Social and Political Sciences and EU Centre on Shared Complex Challenges, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/628492016-07-21T15:21:58Z2016-07-21T15:21:58ZWhy a speedy Brexit is a matter of political life and death for François Hollande<p>Theresa May and François Hollande have lots to talk about. During their first meeting after May became prime minister of the UK, the role of each nation in Europe’s future is very much at stake. Following the UK’s decision to leave the EU last month, Hollande wants a swift and clinical Brexit to avoid calls for a French referendum on EU membership, and a potential “Frexit”.</p>
<p>The timing of the meeting, a week after the Nice terrorist attack, could prove critical for Hollande’s political career. He faces a presidential election in 2017 and has seen his popularity sink to its <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2016/06/02/popularite-francois-hollande-manuel-valls-record-baisse-yougov_n_10236942.html">lowest levels yet</a>.</p>
<p>The meeting is a welcome foray into foreign policy for Hollande. Things are going very badly indeed at home. Fearing demands for a referendum on his country’s membership of the EU – championed by the extreme-right <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/682170/Frexit-France-EU-referendum-Brexit-Marine-Le-Pen-National-Front">Front National</a> – he is keen to avoid specifics on the post-Brexit nature of Europe.</p>
<p>Political figures in France from across the political spectrum, including <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/calais-mayor-says-brexit-means-8408236">Natacha Bouchart</a>, the centre-right mayor of Calais, and the socialist foreign minister, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3690168/Britain-appointed-LIAR-Foreign-Secretary-says-Boris-Johnson-s-French-counterpart-world-reacts-Theresa-s-gamble-ex-mayor.html">Jean-Marc Ayrault</a>, have painted a bleak picture of Britain’s role in the future of Europe outside of the EU.</p>
<p>Despite British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/14/boris-johnson-uk-outside-the-eu-will-play-greater-role-in-europe">assertion</a> that Ayrault had written to him in warm terms, the public message from French politicians is clear: expect no quarter from us.</p>
<p>In his own deliberately obtuse fashion, Hollande is likely to continue to follow suit. Having witnessed David Cameron’s rapid fall from power, the president will seize any opportunity to ward off calls for a French referendum. That means demanding the immediate departure of the UK from the EU.</p>
<p>May and her government are hoping for long, reflective and calm negotiations between the UK and the EU. Hollande will want to avoid that for fear of encouraging eurosceptic French politicians who claim that France can thrive outside the EU.</p>
<p>The long relationship between France and its European neighbours may well prove one of many key battle lines ahead of the 2017 presidential elections and Hollande hopes to appear to be a driving force in the leadership of Europe.</p>
<p>Indeed, for Hollande, avoiding Frexit is very much a matter of political life and death. Socialist voters argue that he has failed to implement the sorts of meaningful reforms that would improve standards of living for French people. Where, for example are the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/9475099/Francois-Hollandes-reality-check.html">60,000 new teaching posts</a> he promised in 2012 to help to improve social aspirations?</p>
<p>There are other figures in his own political party who might appear, in the minds of the electorate, to be the more likely presidential figure in the 2017 presidential elections.</p>
<p>Manuel Valls, France’s hardline prime minister, has been uncompromising in the face of protests over the unpopular labour reforms that seek to make hiring and firing much easier for French firms. Valls <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/690729/france-civil-war-jonathan-miller-nice-attack-extremism-marine-le-pen">recently declared</a> that the French should “get used” to living with terror in the aftermath of the Nice atrocity – an apparently thoughtless comment that may well undermine any eventual bid for the Elysée.</p>
<p>Hollande also faces the very real threat of his predecessor, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/nicolas-sarkozy-confirms-return-bid-for-french-presidency">Nicolas Sarkozy</a>. And of course, there are fears that Marine Le Pen, who oversaw the best ever electoral showing of the Front National in the 2015 regional elections, could well beat Hollande. That’s if he is even chosen as the centre-left candidate next year.</p>
<p>In many ways, May’s visit could not have come at a better time for Hollande. He has been president at a particularly turbulent time for his country and this is a welcome excuse to appear the international statesman. He can be seen to be working closely with Britain to prevent future terrorist attacks on French soil. Of course May wants to spend some time talking about Brexit, but Hollande will want to avoid encouraging stirring anti-European sentiment in his own country.</p>
<p>But it may be too little too late. Having overseen four terrorist attacks along with public sector strikes and mass demonstrations in opposition to labour reforms since taking power in 2012, Hollande’s political career is potentially past saving.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62849/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lees does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Britain might want to play nice and exit calmly, but the French president must avoid giving ammunition to Frexiters.David Lees, Teaching Fellow in French Studies, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.