tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/fuel-efficiency-standards-71214/articlesFuel efficiency standards – The Conversation2024-02-21T19:14:04Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223982024-02-21T19:14:04Z2024-02-21T19:14:04ZAustralian passenger vehicle emission rates are 50% higher than the rest of the world – and it’s getting worse<p>Australian passenger vehicles are emitting 50% more carbon dioxide (CO₂) than the average of the world’s major markets. And the real-world situation is even worse than official figures show. That’s the finding of a <a href="https://theicct.org/publication/australian-ldv-co2-emissions-compare-to-the-rest-of-the-world-feb24/">new study</a> comparing the CO₂ emissions performance of cars, SUVs and light commercial vehicles in Australia and overseas. </p>
<p>The comparison suggests Australia will probably <a href="https://theconversation.com/too-big-too-heavy-and-too-slow-to-change-road-transport-is-way-off-track-for-net-zero-208655">fall well short</a> of the economy-wide 2050 <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction/net-zero">net-zero emission target</a> for road transport. To hit the target, policies to cut vehicle emissions have to be intensified and supported by a range of other policies. </p>
<p>This month, the Australian government <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">announced</a> options for a New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) – not to be confused with the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/transport/national-electric-vehicle-strategy">National Electric Vehicle Strategy</a> (NEVS). Each option would set a national limit on grams of CO₂ that can be emitted for each kilometre driven, averaged across all new cars sold.</p>
<p>Mandatory CO₂ emission or fuel-efficiency standards are internationally recognised as a <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_89c9da85afb74c248ef7bbaf17d86297.pdf">fundamental building block</a> to cut transport emissions. To provide further context and input to the development of an Australian standard, Australia-based Transport Energy/Emission Research (<a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/">TER</a>) and the International Council on Clean Transportation (<a href="https://theicct.org/">ICCT</a>) collaborated on a newly published <a href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">briefing paper</a>. </p>
<p>The independent analysis shows the urgent need for Australia to adopt a stringent, well-designed and mandatory fuel-efficiency standard. This standard and additional policies are essential to keep up with technological advances and decarbonisation in other developed countries.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-fuel-efficiency-standards-may-settle-the-ute-dispute-but-there-are-still-hazards-on-the-road-222875">Labor's fuel-efficiency standards may settle the ute dispute – but there are still hazards on the road</a>
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<h2>How did we fall so far behind?</h2>
<p>Both fuel efficiency and emission standards aim for roughly the same thing: cutting fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In doing so, they also cut fuel costs for consumers and improve energy security.</p>
<p><a href="https://theicct.org/pv-fuel-economy/">About 85%</a> of the global light vehicle market has adopted these standards over time, in some cases decades ago. The United States, European Union, Canada, United Kingdom, Japan, China, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, New Zealand, Chile and India all have them. Australia and Russia are the two exceptions in the developed world.</p>
<p>Australia has a long history of debate about making such standards mandatory for passenger and light commercial vehicles. The federal government has released six public consultation documents since 2008, without achieving mandatory standards. This is <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">about to change</a>. </p>
<p>Australia has had voluntary standards since 1978. These targets have <a href="https://www.fcai.com.au/news/index/view/news/792">not always been met</a> due to lack of enforcement. They <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/Lightvehiclesreport.pdf">have been criticised</a> for lacking both ambition and effectiveness in reducing real-world emissions. </p>
<p>It appears the government’s <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">current proposal</a> will be more ambitious. It potentially aims to converge with US targets in 2027 – though falling short of what is being done in Europe. The Australian standard’s effectiveness in achieving genuine emission reductions and net zero emissions in 2050 will still need to be examined once the design and details are clearer.</p>
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<h2>How does Australia compare using official figures?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">new study</a> compared the officially reported CO₂ emissions performance of passenger and light commercial vehicles in Australia, China, the EU, Japan and the US. We found CO₂ emissions from the Australian passenger vehicles were 53% higher than the average of these major markets in 2021.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=530&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576602/original/file-20240219-16-ccfdd8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=666&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Officially reported fleet average emissions performance for new passenger vehicles, comparing Australia with four major markets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">TER and ICCT, 2024</a></span>
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<p>Importantly, without effective action, this performance gap is expected to grow in future years. That’s because these other markets are moving to aggressively adopt standards that drive the transition to a low-or-zero-emissions vehicle fleet.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/too-big-too-heavy-and-too-slow-to-change-road-transport-is-way-off-track-for-net-zero-208655">Too big, too heavy and too slow to change: road transport is way off track for net zero</a>
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<h2>How does Australia compare in reality?</h2>
<p>The official Australian figures are based on a test protocol called the New European Drive Cycle (<a href="https://coceurope.eu/blog/nedc-emission-test/">NEDC</a>). It was developed in the early 1970s. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814">main problem</a> is that the difference between NEDC test results and actual on-road emissions has <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_3051fdd1a87948d3978cb2c2de0767be.pdf">steadily increased</a>. Actual on-road emissions were estimated to be about 10% higher in 2007, growing to over 45% in 2021. </p>
<p>Indeed, the EU no longer uses the outdated NEDC protocol. It has adopted a <a href="https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/On-the-way-to-real-world-WLTP_May2020.pdf">more realistic test procedure</a>, the Worldwide Harmonised Light-Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).</p>
<p>The briefing paper used previous research into Australian and international real-world emissions performance to create a more accurate comparison. Whereas the official figures suggest newly sold Australian passenger vehicles have relatively high emissions, at least they appear to have improved each year. The picture is very different when we look at on-road emissions. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=525&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576614/original/file-20240219-22-ivfdqj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=660&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Estimated real-world fleet average emissions for new passenger vehicles, comparing Australia with four major markets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">TER and ICCT 2024</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://theicct.org/pr-cuts-in-average-rw-emissions-are-stalled-for-australias-ldv-fleet-while-other-major-markets-drive-towards-zero-feb24/">Our estimates</a> suggest emissions from newly sold Australian passenger vehicles have actually been rising since 2015. This trend is a result of <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_3051fdd1a87948d3978cb2c2de0767be.pdf">increasing vehicle size and weight</a>, a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/jan/04/australia-2023-new-car-sales-record-list-top-utes-suvs-ford-ranger-toyota-hilux">shift towards more four-wheel-drive SUVs and large utes</a>, and a lack of mandatory standards or targets.</p>
<p>The Australian real-world emissions performance is also much worse than in the four major markets. Before 2016 the average difference was around 20% higher on average. By 2021, Australian emissions were almost 50% higher for passenger vehicles. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-road-to-new-fuel-efficiency-rules-is-filled-with-potholes-heres-how-australia-can-avoid-them-188814">The road to new fuel efficiency rules is filled with potholes. Here's how Australia can avoid them</a>
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<h2>What does this mean for policy?</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows both officially reported and actual on-road CO₂ emissions from new Australian light-duty vehicles are much higher than in other developed nations. The available evidence suggests this poor performance will get worse without stringent mandatory standards in place. </p>
<p>The good news is that the government is acting on the lack of an effective standard. Mandatory standards will likely be adopted this year. The <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">New Vehicle Efficiency Standard</a> is due to take effect in 2025.</p>
<p>However, the standard must be carefully designed to achieve genuine emission reductions for new vehicles. </p>
<p>For instance, the official Australian test protocol (NEDC) is outdated and increasingly underestimates on-road emissions. It provides an unrealistic and skewed picture, undermining effective emission reduction. The government says it intends to adopt a more realistic test protocol.</p>
<p>The standards should also include on-board monitoring of fuel consumption – as the EU is now doing. It’s vital to measure real-world fuel efficiency and emissions of new vehicles and to make this information public to ensure standards are achieving their goals. But the <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">latest government report</a> didn’t mention it.</p>
<p>A mandatory fuel-efficiency standard is long overdue in Australia. It can help close the performance gap between Australia and the rest of the world. So we’d better make sure it works.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Smit is the Founder of and Director at Transport Energy/Emission Research (TER), which collaborated on the briefing paper discussed in this article.</span></em></p>Australian vehicle emissions are even worse than official figures show and are likely to fall even further behind the rest of the world unless much more ambitious policies are adopted.Robin Smit, Adjunct Professor, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2230942024-02-08T05:24:51Z2024-02-08T05:24:51ZPolitics with Michelle Grattan: Chris Bowen on fuel efficiency standards and the energy transition<p>The government has announced long-awaited fuel efficiency standards, which will place a yearly cap on the total emissions output for new cars sold in Australia. The new regime will move Australia in the direction of comparable countries, but it has its critics.</p>
<p>Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen joins the podcast to discuss this policy, as well as the government’s progress on the energy transition, which is facing resistance in some regional and rural communities. </p>
<p>On the fuel standards, Bowen insists there’s no downside. </p>
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<p>I don’t see any losers out of this policy because you could still get full range of choice.</p>
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<p>He points out the government won’t be forcing anyone to change cars. </p>
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<p>We like people having the choice of EVs and like people taking up EVs because they’re good for emissions and good for the cost of living. But it’s a choice for Australians, and I recognise everyone’s on a journey. You know, some people are looking at plug-in hybrids. Some people are just not ready yet, it’s perfectly understandable. </p>
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<p>On climate change and the 2030 targets, Bowen admits</p>
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<p>Of course, there are challenges along the road. And there’s a big lift […] renewable energy was about 30% when we came to office. And we’re getting to 82%. It’s a big job; of course, there are bumps and challenges. I don’t shy away from that. But we continue with the journey.</p>
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<p>Talking about the government’s First Nations Clean Energy Strategy, Bowen says </p>
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<p>I’m co-developing it with First Nations people. It’s co-designed. I think that’s very important, because it’s not me sitting in Canberra telling First Nations people what they need and what will happen. […] It’s run very collaboratively across the committee. It’s done a lot of outreach in meetings.</p>
<p>Indigenous people have a lot of energy insecurity in remote Australia. I mean, [they are] amongst the most energy insecure in the world. Their electricity gets turned off a lot. But they live in the hottest, sunniest places in the world. So, you know, we need better harnessed renewable energy. We need to give them more energy reliability.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new fuel efficiency standards regime will move Australia in the direction of comparable countries, but it has its critics. Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen joins the podcast to discuss this policy and moreMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228752024-02-06T19:08:34Z2024-02-06T19:08:34ZLabor’s fuel-efficiency standards may settle the ute dispute – but there are still hazards on the road<p>Australia looks set to adopt fuel-efficiency standards after the Albanese government on Sunday <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/department/media/publications/cleaner-cheaper-run-cars-australian-new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-consultation-impact-analysis">revealed</a> options for the long-awaited policy. The government says the reform would lead to more cars that are cheaper to run, eventually saving Australians about A$1,000 per vehicle each year.</p>
<p>The announcement comes a decade after the Climate Change Authority <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/sites/default/files/Lightvehiclesreport.pdf">first proposed</a> such a standard for Australia. The United States has had such a policy since <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/light-vehicle-emissions-standards-australia/international-implementation-vehicle-emissions#:%7E:text=The%20US%20first%20introduced%20light,and%20reducing%20CO2%20emissions.">the 1970s</a> and the European Union implemented mandatory standards in 2009.</p>
<p>The Coalition has already sought to stoke fears among tradies and regional voters by claiming Labor’s policy threatens to take utes off the road. Labor’s policy is designed to address this concern – but the opposition looks likely to continue this scare campaign.</p>
<p>More generally, history tells us the road to fuel-efficiency reform in Australia is a bumpy one. The Albanese government has hazards to negotiate before its proposal becomes law.</p>
<h2>A carbon price, by another name</h2>
<p>Labor has outlined three options for a fuel-efficiency target, ranging from weak to aggressive. It describes its preferred middle-ground option as the sensible compromise.</p>
<p>The policy design for each of the options would set a national limit, averaged across all new cars sold, stipulating grams of CO₂ that can be emitted for each kilometre driven. This measure depends on fuel efficiency: that is, the amount of fuel burnt per kilometre. The designs differ in the stringency of the targets, the speed of the changes and the treatment of different vehicle classes.</p>
<p>The limit would not apply to individual cars. Instead, each supplier of new light vehicles to Australia would have to make sure the mix of vehicles does not exceed the limit. Low-efficiency vehicles could still be sold, but car dealers would have to balance this out by selling enough high-efficiency vehicles, such as electric vehicles.</p>
<p>Car suppliers that outperform the targets would earn credits that could be sold to those falling short. This system is similar to Australia’s renewable energy target for electricity and the safeguard mechanism for industry pollution. </p>
<p>All three are effectively a carbon price (though the political toxicity of that term means the government would never characterise them as such). Nonetheless, should the fuel-efficiency standards be implemented, Australia would end up with three carbon prices, one for each major energy use.</p>
<p>The government says the preferred option would lead to a saving of 369 million tonnes of CO₂ by 2050.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-holding-back-electric-cars-in-australia-weve-long-known-the-answer-and-its-time-to-clear-the-road-188443">Who's holding back electric cars in Australia? We've long known the answer – and it's time to clear the road</a>
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<h2>What about utes?</h2>
<p>One tricky path the policy must navigate is allowing for the supply of both small and large vehicles without further exacerbating <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/oct/15/australia-may-increase-standard-car-parking-spaces-as-huge-vehicles-dominate-the-streets#:%7E:text=Australia%27s%20love%20affair%20with%20large,a%20category%20that%20includes%20utes.">the trend</a> towards oversized vehicles on our roads. </p>
<p>The government’s preferred option achieves this by allowing higher – but still limited – emissions for heavier vehicles such as utes, vans and SUVs, to account for their natural tendency to use more fuel.</p>
<p>Heavier vehicles are a sticking point in forming vehicle emissions policy in Australia. Who could forget then-prime minister Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/07/shorten-wants-to-end-the-weekend-morrison-attacks-labors-electric-vehicle-policy">2019 claim</a> Labor’s electric vehicle policy would “end the weekend” by banning larger cars used to tow boats and the like.</p>
<p>Following Labor’s policy announcement on Sunday, Nationals leader David Littleproud picked up where Morrison left off, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/04/fuel-efficiency-standards-labor-unveils-proposal-highlighting-petrol-savings-of-1000-a-year-for-motorists">saying</a>:</p>
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<p>If you take away particularly utes, they’re tools of trade, particularly for people, not just tradies in the cities, but also people in the bush. And if you put a tonne on the back of an electric ute at the moment, you don’t get far.</p>
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<p>Anticipating the Coalition scare campaign, the Labor government’s preferred option has been designed with the aim of ensuring a wide range of conventional utes remain on the market. </p>
<p>In the medium term, we can also expect the trend towards larger vehicles to be weakened by measures in Labor’s last federal budget to <a href="https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/what-changes-with-the-updated-instant-asset-write-off-scheme">roll back</a> vehicle tax breaks for small and medium businesses. But that change doesn’t come into effect until mid-year, which means there may be a rush on larger vehicle purchases until then. </p>
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<span class="caption">The Coalition has previously claimed Labor’s vehicle policies would ‘end the weekend’.</span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electric-utes-can-now-power-the-weekend-and-the-work-week-199600">Electric utes can now power the weekend – and the work week</a>
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<h2>Ghosts from the past</h2>
<p>Labor’s preferred policy option is broadly similar to that put forward by the Climate Change Authority in 2014. Then, the Coalition government appeared to consider the proposal for a time. But it eventually dropped the idea – in part, presumably, due to lobbying by interest groups including the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/push-for-carbon-car-standards-should-surprise-nobody-20170712-gx9uc9.html">car industry</a>.</p>
<p>There are signs those same groups are gearing up again. The Federated Chamber of Automotive Industries, for example, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-04/new-vehicle-efficiency-standard-for-new-cars/103425022">said on Sunday</a> the government’s targets will “be a challenge” to meet and may lead to more expensive vehicles, or gaps in the supply of utes and SUVs.</p>
<p>But the proposed policy has been welcomed by climate change advocates, the electric vehicle industry and motoring groups. The NRMA described them as “responsible and achievable”, saying “a business-as-usual approach meant that Australian families and businesses were not benefiting from the best technology designed to reduce fuel consumption”.</p>
<h2>Progress, at last</h2>
<p>The government intends to consult on its preferred model before introducing the legislation, with a view to enacting the policy in January 2025. </p>
<p>Assuming the policy is adopted, Australia would finally shed its unenviable status as the only developed country without such such standards. But we will still be at the back of pack, far behind the EU and only catching up to the US in 2028.</p>
<p>Despite the difficulties, it seems likely Australia will have fuel-efficiency standards in the near future. As with most measures to reduce emissions, the best time to introduce the policy was ten or more years ago. But the second-best time is now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222875/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin was a Member of the Climate Change Authority at the time it proposed a fuel efficiency standard</span></em></p>The road to fuel-efficiency reform in Australia is a bumpy one – and the Albanese government has hazards to negotiate before its proposal becomes law.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1976142023-01-19T01:21:35Z2023-01-19T01:21:35ZLet buyers jump the queue for electric cars by importing them directly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/504609/original/file-20230116-18-i5v4ml.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=408%2C8%2C4580%2C3051&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If Australia is to decarbonise our energy system by 2050, we need to start the transition to electric vehicles very soon. Cars sold in the 2030s will mostly still be on the road in 2050, so we have to make sure most of them are electric. But electric cars (including plug-in hybrids) currently account for only <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/australias-top-selling-evs-in-2022">3.5% of new car sales</a> in Australia. </p>
<p>The world leader is Norway, where <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/629068/norway-electric-car-sales-december2022/">87.6% of new cars</a> (including 4.8% plug-in hybrids) are electric. Australia’s figure is also far lower than in Europe (<a href="https://insideevs.com/news/629798/europe-plugin-car-sales-november2022/">27.7%</a>, including 10.4% plug-in hybrids), China (<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/china-plug-in-car-sales-increased-by-50percent-in-november-2022/ar-AA15Tqiz">35%</a>, 25% fully electric) or even the United States (7.1%, <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/technology/3802179-us-electric-vehicle-sales-surge-in-2022-gain-on-tesla/">5.8%</a> fully electric).</p>
<p>However, even in Norway the proportion of cars on the road that are electric – although impressive compared to the rest of the world – is still <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/628846/norway-fifth-car-fleet-electric/">only 20%</a>. This difference reflects the time it takes to replace an existing fleet of internal combustion engine cars.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-is-failing-on-electric-vehicles-california-shows-its-possible-to-pick-up-the-pace-189871">Australia is failing on electric vehicles. California shows it's possible to pick up the pace</a>
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<h2>Why are sales so low in Australia?</h2>
<p>Why has Australia done so badly? The overt hostility of the previous government to electric vehicles can’t have helped. Prime Minister Scott Morrison even claimed Labor wanted to “abolish the weekend” with its electric vehicle policy. </p>
<p>But the Morrison government has been gone for the better part of a year now and electric vehicle sales, while growing, remain very low.</p>
<p>The two core issues faced by Australians wanting to buy electric vehicles are affordability and lack of availability. Despite some recent <a href="https://www.drive.com.au/news/tesla-prices-australia-model-3-model-y/">modest price reductions</a>, Teslas are priced out of reach of most private car buyers. They also face long delivery delays. Would-be buyers of many other brands face similar problems. </p>
<p>Australian governments have done little, if anything, to encourage the transition to electric vehicles. Almost uniquely among developed countries, Australia has neither a carbon price nor vehicle fuel-efficiency standards. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-electric-vehicles-wont-be-enough-to-rein-in-transport-emissions-any-time-soon-195722">Why electric vehicles won't be enough to rein in transport emissions any time soon</a>
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<p>The Victorian state government even <a href="https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/registration/registration-fees/zlev-road-user-charge#What-is-a-ZLEV">taxes electric and hybrid vehicles</a> for their road use. South Australia had a similar tax, but has <a href="https://www.legislation.sa.gov.au/lz?path=/b/current/motor%20vehicles%20(electric%20vehicle%20levy)%20amendment%20repeal%20bill%202022">abolished it</a>.</p>
<p>There have been a few positive measures, mostly at the state level. Although the federal government has legislated an exemption from fringe benefits tax, it offers <a href="https://thedriven.io/2022/08/01/why-labors-new-tax-cut-on-electric-vehicles-wont-help-you-buy-one-anytime-soon/">no direct benefit to individual car buyers</a>. The government’s <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/national-electric-vehicle-strategy">development of a national EV strategy</a> may lead to other initiatives. </p>
<p>But incentives don’t make much difference if it is impossible to buy a vehicle. Until recently, delivery delays could be explained as part of general COVID-related disruptions and restrictions introduced to control the pandemic. </p>
<p>But those restrictions are mostly gone now, and remaining supply disruptions haven’t stopped millions of <a href="https://insideevs.com/news/629798/europe-plugin-car-sales-november2022/">European</a> and <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/other/china-plug-in-car-sales-increased-by-50percent-in-november-2022/ar-AA15Tqiz">Chinese</a> buyers from getting behind the wheel.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-electric-cars-for-under-45-000-theyre-finally-coming-to-australia-but-the-battle-isnt-over-191854">New electric cars for under $45,000? They're finally coming to Australia – but the battle isn't over</a>
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<h2>Industry’s structure is a barrier</h2>
<p>A critical problem is that the Australian retail motor industry has a structure designed for the 20th century, when a small number of locally made cars, powered by internal combustion engines, dominated the roads. Retailers, typically franchisees for one of the major manufacturers, provided not only a distribution channel, but highly profitable after-sales service.</p>
<p>With the end of Australian manufacturing, this no longer makes a lot of sense. The requirement to buy through an authorised dealer, like other systems of this kind, allows overseas producers to raise car prices for Australian consumers, with few offsetting benefits. They can also supply the market with fuel-inefficient models.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whos-holding-back-electric-cars-in-australia-weve-long-known-the-answer-and-its-time-to-clear-the-road-188443">Who's holding back electric cars in Australia? We've long known the answer – and it's time to clear the road</a>
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<p>The problem is even worse for electric vehicles. Compared to vehicles with internal combustion engines, electric vehicles have many fewer moving parts and <a href="https://www.whichcar.com.au/advice/ev-servicing-costs-explained">much less need for costly servicing</a>. </p>
<p>The most important component, the battery, has an estimated life of up to 20 years. There’s no transmission, spark plugs, timing belt or air filter to worry about. Profits on all of these items enable car dealers to reduce the sticker price on fossil-fuelled vehicles, making them much easier to sell. </p>
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<h2>Parallel importing is part of the solution</h2>
<p>One step towards solving this problem would be to allow consumers to import new and used cars from overseas suppliers. This is known as “parallel importing”. </p>
<p>Consumers have already seen the benefits of parallel importing for items including books, music and a wide variety of consumer goods. In some cases, such as that of books, parallel importing can be done only by individual consumers; in others it is open to firms that wish to compete with existing distribution channels.</p>
<p>Australia is far behind the rest of the world in the transition from fossil-fuelled vehicles. To avoid falling further behind, we need to change the kinds of vehicles we import. </p>
<p>A fuel-efficiency standard would discourage the dirtiest of our current vehicles. While increasing the upfront sale price, it would save drivers money in the long run. </p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-rapid-shift-to-electric-vehicles-can-save-24-000-lives-and-leave-us-148bn-better-off-over-the-next-2-decades-190243">A rapid shift to electric vehicles can save 24,000 lives and leave us $148bn better off over the next 2 decades</a>
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<p>Parallel importing would increase competition in the market for new and used electric vehicles overnight. Manufacturers would have to reconsider their supply and pricing strategies for Australia. </p>
<p>Allowing independent importation would also promote the development of a skilled workforce to service the cars. It could even allow the development of local manufacturing of electric vehicle components.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Flavio Menezes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Known as parallel importing, importing goods directly from overseas suppliers lowers costs and increases supply, which is what Australia’s electric vehicle market needs to catch up with the world.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandFlavio Menezes, Professor of Economics, Director of the Australian Institute for Business and Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1906272022-09-23T12:34:32Z2022-09-23T12:34:32ZSurging sales of large gasoline pickups and SUVs are undermining carbon reductions from electric cars<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/486193/original/file-20220922-13134-x4skx7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C7%2C2393%2C1344&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pickup trucks for sale at a Michigan dealership.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John DeCicco</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Replacing petroleum fuels with electricity is crucial for curbing climate change because it cuts carbon dioxide emissions from transportation – the largest source of U.S. global warming emissions and a growing source worldwide. Even including the impacts of generating electricity to run them, electric vehicles <a href="http://dx.doi.org/%2010.1257/pol.20190390">provide clear environmental benefits</a>. </p>
<p>Plug-in vehicles are making great progress, with their <a href="https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates">share of U.S. car and light truck sales </a> jumping from 2% to 4% in 2020-2021 and projected to exceed 6% by the end of 2022. But sales of gas-guzzling pickups and SUVs <a href="https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/light-trucks-now-outselling-cars/">are also surging</a>. This other face of the market subverts electric cars’ carbon-cutting progress. </p>
<p>As a researcher who studies <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=wQ5IYG4AAAAJ&hl=en">transportation and climate change</a>, it’s clear to me that EVs provide large carbon reductions that will grow as the electric grid shifts to carbon-free energy. But fleetwide emissions, including vehicles of all types and ages, are what ultimately matters for the climate. </p>
<p>While the latest policy advances will speed the transition to EVs, actual <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00921-7">emission reductions could be hastened</a> by tightening greenhouse gas emissions standards, especially for the larger gasoline-powered personal trucks that dominate transportation’s carbon footprint. Because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf4d2">it takes 20 years to largely replace the on-road automobile fleet</a>, gas vehicles bought today will still be driving and emitting carbon dioxide in 2040 and beyond. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">California has adopted regulations that will phase out sales of new cars powered only by gasoline in the state by 2035, a shift that is expected to drive similar policies in other states.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Public policy progress</h2>
<p>Plugging in rather than pumping gas <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/electricvehicles/reducing-pollution-electric-vehicles">reduces both global warming and smog-forming pollution</a>. It avoids the ecological harm of petroleum production and reduces the economic and security risks of a world oil market coupled to totalitarian regimes such as those of Russia and in the Middle East. </p>
<p>On the good news front, automakers are offering ever more EV choices and promising all-electric fleets within 15 years or so. Two recent policy developments will help turn such promises into reality. </p>
<p>One is California’s recent <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-moves-accelerate-100-new-zero-emission-vehicle-sales-2035">update to its zero-emission vehicle program</a>. The new regulations will require that by 2035, 100% of new light vehicles sold in California must be qualifying zero-emission vehicles, allowing for a limited number of plug-in hybrid vehicles. Other states that historically have adopted California’s emission standards may follow its lead, so cars running only on gasoline could ultimately be banned across 40% of the U.S. new car market. </p>
<p>In addition, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/08/12/inflation-reduction-act-house-vote/">Inflation Reduction Act</a> recently signed by President Biden includes new incentives for EVs and subsidies for domestic production of EVs, batteries and critical minerals. The new policy <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/electric-vehicle-tax-credits-6500157">targets incentives in several ways</a>, disqualifying high-income consumers, capping the price of qualifying vehicles, providing incentives for used EVs, and restricting the tax credits to EVs built in the U.S. and Canada. It complements the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/09/14/fact-sheet-president-bidens-economic-plan-drives-americas-electric-vehicle-manufacturing-boom/">US$7.5 billion for building a national EV charging network</a> authorized by the infrastructure bill that the Biden administration brokered in 2021. </p>
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<h2>The consumption conundrum</h2>
<p>In spite of rapidly growing sales, however, EVs have not yet measurably cut carbon. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data indicates that the rate of carbon dioxide reduction from new vehicles has <a href="https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends">all but stalled, while vehicle mass and power have reached all-time highs</a>. </p>
<p>Why? The surging popularity of low-fuel-economy pickups and SUVs. My analysis of the EPA data shows that through 2021, the higher emissions from market shifts to larger, more powerful vehicles swamp the potential carbon dioxide reductions from EVs <a href="https://www.carsclimate.com/2022/09/truck-vs-EV-CO2-gap-thru-2021.html">by more than a factor of three</a>. </p>
<p>Including the largest personal pickup trucks, which are omitted from the EPA’s public data, would further increase the gasoline vehicle emissions that overwhelm EV carbon reductions. Because vehicles <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/809952">remain on the road for so long</a>, excessive emissions from popular but under-regulated pickups and SUVs will harm the climate for many years. </p>
<h2>Complications of clean-car rules</h2>
<p>A reason for this conundrum is that <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/regulations-greenhouse-gas-emissions-passenger-cars-and">clean-car standards</a> are averaged across the overall fleets of cars and light trucks that automakers sell. When a manufacturer increases its sales of EVs and other high-efficiency vehicles, it can sell a greater number of less fuel-efficient vehicles while still meeting regulatory requirements. </p>
<p>The standards are structured in several ways that further weaken their effectiveness. The targets an automaker has to meet <a href="https://www.autonews.com/article/20160814/OEM11/308159946/is-cafe-making-cars-bigger">get weaker if it makes its vehicles larger</a>. Vehicles classified as light trucks – including four-wheel-drive and large SUVs, as well as vans and pickups – are held to weaker standards than those classified as cars. </p>
<p>What’s worse, a regulatory loophole allows the largest pickups to effectively evade meaningful carbon constraints. Such vehicles are classified as “work trucks” even though they are sold and priced as luxury personal vehicles. An ongoing horsepower war gives these massive “<a href="https://twitter.com/uhalevi/status/1333077860119171072">suburban cowboy</a>” trucks capabilities far beyond those of the relatively spartan pickups once used by cost-conscious businesses. </p>
<h2>Toward faster emission reductions</h2>
<p>In spite of falling prices and rising sales, electric cars <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/opinion/contributors/2019/01/11/electric-cars-evs/2535200002/">still face hurdles</a> before they can fully sweep the market. <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32600212/ev-charging-time/">The time it takes to charge an electric car</a> may remain an inconvenience for many consumers. For example, commonly available Level 2 chargers take <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/rural/ev/toolkit/ev-basics/charging-speeds">four to 10 hours</a> to fully recharge an EV battery.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Buying an EV requires consumers to consider where and how quickly they want to charge their car.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Such obstacles make it <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a35118090/are-we-ready-for-the-zero-emission-future/">unclear whether the car market can move as quickly</a> to an all-electric future as some hope. </p>
<p>Emissions could be cut more quickly if regulators reform clean car standards to close the loopholes that allow excess emissions. California is taking a step in this direction by revising its methods for determining new fleet emission limits for gasoline vehicles. Also hopeful is the recent <a href="https://www.edf.org/media/gm-and-edf-announce-recommended-principles-epa-emissions-standards-model-year-2027-and-beyond">joint announcement by General Motors and the Environmental Defense Fund</a>, which notes the need to address the large light trucks as part of new standards targeting a 60% reduction in fleetwide greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. </p>
<p>As the world transitions to EVs, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/electric-vehicles/">their size and energy use will matter</a>, too. Massive EVs will require large batteries, and hence more <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-evs-without-chinas-supply-chain-is-hard-but-not-impossible-3-supply-chain-experts-outline-a-strategy-189453">critical minerals whose supplies are limited</a>. They will demand more electricity that, even if renewable, is <a href="https://climate.law.columbia.edu/content/impacts-renewable-energy-facilities">not fully free of environmental impacts</a>. Sustainability will suffer if the roads are ruled more by the likes of <a href="https://www.gmc.com/electric/hummer-ev">Hummer EVs</a> rather than <a href="https://www.tesla.com/model3">Tesla Model 3s</a>. </p>
<p>Policymakers and environmental organizations have mounted major promotional campaigns in support of EVs. But there are no similar efforts to encourage consumers to <a href="http://www.autonews.com/article/20180521/MOBILITY/180529995/1137">choose the most efficient vehicle</a> that meets their needs. Significant numbers of Americans <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-november-2019/toc/2/">now believe that global warming is for real and of concern</a>. Connecting such beliefs to everyday vehicle purchases is a missing link in clean-car strategy. </p>
<p>These sobering car market trends highlight the risk of letting visions of an all-electric future mask the need for better decisions today – by policymakers, consumers and automakers – to more quickly reduce emissions across the entire vehicle fleet. </p>
<p><em>This piece updates an <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-make-the-us-auto-fleet-greener-increasing-fuel-efficiency-matters-more-than-selling-electric-vehicles-153085">article</a> originally published on January 28, 2021.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190627/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John M. DeCicco, Ph.D., is a Research Professor Emeritus retired from the University of Michigan. He remains professionally active in energy research and teaches the "Mobility and the Environment" module as part of the University of Michigan's online Foundations of Mobility credential. He currently receives no funding, but his past work on vehicle efficiency was supported by environmental organizations, foundations and federal agencies. </span></em></p>Electric cars are getting a lot of PR buzz, but automakers are still promoting – and many consumers are buying – vehicles that are major gas guzzlers.John DeCicco, Research Professor Emeritus, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1888142022-08-23T05:20:21Z2022-08-23T05:20:21ZThe road to new fuel efficiency rules is filled with potholes. Here’s how Australia can avoid them<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480268/original/file-20220822-53932-9ghveh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C5%2C3547%2C2350&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Last week, federal Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen officially put fuel efficiency standards on the national agenda, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/19/electric-vehicles-four-things-that-will-help-australia-shift-gears-after-a-decade-of-denial">saying</a> the measure would reduce transport emissions and encourage electric vehicle uptake. </p>
<p>Fuel efficiency standards are applied to car manufacturers and indirectly set limits on how much CO₂ can on average be emitted from a new vehicle. Such standards lead to lower fuel costs for motorists and could help Australia meet its targets under the Paris climate agreement.</p>
<p>Importantly, Bowen <a href="https://www.trendsmap.com/twitter/tweet/1560411828118646784">noted</a> any new rules must be ambitious and designed specifically for Australia. But implementing effective standards is easier said than done – and there are many potholes to avoid. </p>
<p>Without a robust set of mandatory transport emissions standards, Australia’s dependence on fossil fuels will deepen, and reaching our emissions reduction goals will become harder.</p>
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<img alt="man in black suit gestures with hands" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480259/original/file-20220822-2925-x8x3n4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480259/original/file-20220822-2925-x8x3n4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480259/original/file-20220822-2925-x8x3n4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480259/original/file-20220822-2925-x8x3n4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480259/original/file-20220822-2925-x8x3n4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480259/original/file-20220822-2925-x8x3n4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480259/original/file-20220822-2925-x8x3n4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen says fuel efficiency standards must be ambitious.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<h2>Standards must be mandatory</h2>
<p>Road vehicles vary in the efficiency with which they use fossil fuels such as petrol and diesel. For example, large SUVs are usually less fuel efficient than smaller, lighter cars. And of course, electric vehicles operate without any fossil fuels at all (although the energy source used to charge their batteries determines how “green” they are). </p>
<p>Stringent fuel efficiency standards will encourage the auto industry to bring more electric vehicles to Australia, and reduce how many polluting vehicles it imports.</p>
<p>Australia is the only country in the OECD <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/19/australia-plans-fuel-efficiency-standards-to-boost-electric-car-supply.html">without</a> mandatory fuel efficiency standards for road transport vehicles. Voluntary fuel economy targets were <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_eec0d63b5f384c90aa308fb8067ec261.pdf">adopted</a> for new petrol cars in 1978, but <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_eec0d63b5f384c90aa308fb8067ec261.pdf">were not</a> achieved in 2010. In 2020, Australia’s automotive industry <a href="https://www.fcai.com.au/news/index/view/news/652">announced</a> a new voluntary reporting system for CO₂ emissions reduction of 3-4% per year this decade.</p>
<p>These rules are not mandatory, and the target probably falls short of what’s needed. Yet, the industry is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/revealed-car-industry-s-secret-emissions-plan-would-slow-electric-vehicle-uptake-20220805-p5b7pe.html">promoting</a> these standards as a template for Australia’s new fuel efficiency rules. </p>
<p>Mandatory fuel efficiency standards are at the core of energy and transport policies around the world. So this should be the first guiding principle of any new system pursued by the federal government. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-world-surges-ahead-on-electric-vehicle-policy-the-morrison-governments-new-strategy-leaves-australia-idling-in-the-garage-169824">As the world surges ahead on electric vehicle policy, the Morrison government's new strategy leaves Australia idling in the garage</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="red car drives on city street" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480267/original/file-20220822-66666-qjuiuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480267/original/file-20220822-66666-qjuiuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480267/original/file-20220822-66666-qjuiuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480267/original/file-20220822-66666-qjuiuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480267/original/file-20220822-66666-qjuiuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480267/original/file-20220822-66666-qjuiuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480267/original/file-20220822-66666-qjuiuo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Small cars are usually more fuel-efficient than bigger cars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tracey Nearmy/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Real-world driving patterns</h2>
<p>Second, the standards must be based on real-world fuel consumption.</p>
<p>Setting fuel efficiency standards first requires selecting a specific “driving pattern” that includes vehicle speed, acceleration, deceleration and power usage, and are used to determine a vehicle’s fuel use and emissions. </p>
<p>The patterns also take into account local road type (such as residential, arterial or motorway) and driving conditions (such as free-flow or morning peak).</p>
<p>The voluntary industry standards now in place in Australia are based on a driving pattern called the “New European Drive Cycle” or NEDC. Among its <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_ba13c6aab78d4cf5bd81aa03a5c17571.pdf">shortcomings</a>, the cycle assumes mild accelerations and constant speeds that don’t reflect modern-day driving. </p>
<p>This has <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334812923_Real_World_Fuel_Consumption_and_Emissions_From_LDVs_and_HDVs">led to</a> substantial deviations between the NEDC assumptions about fuel use and real-world consumption. </p>
<p>Our recent research <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_5ccb87ff39e545809bd1f92872e3069a.pdf">measured emissions</a> from five SUVs driving around Sydney. After comparing our measurements with the <a href="https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/">Green Vehicle Guide</a>, we found fuel use was 16% to 65% higher than NEDC values, depending on the vehicle and driving conditions.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_00dcaa41d8d046d3a7b84a65a2135bb7.pdf">research</a> in 2019 suggested that, contrary to <a href="https://www.ntc.gov.au/sites/default/files/assets/files/Carbon-dioxide-emissions-intensity-for-new-Australian-light-vehicles-2019.pdf">official figures</a> using the NEDC, the rate of CO₂ emissions for new Australian passenger vehicles was not falling – and may actually have increased since 2015.</p>
<p>Why? It’s likely due to an <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/design/australias-big-car-obsession-utes-suv-sales-on-the-rise/news-story/63b01a52b087e2ab094a9492ef83c480">increase</a> in sales of bigger, heavier vehicles in Australia, such as SUVs, as well as a shift towards more 4WD and diesel cars. </p>
<p>So it’s crucial that we drop the NEDC – and base the new Australian standards on a drive pattern that represents real-world conditions. This could be similar to <a href="https://www.wltpfacts.eu/what-is-wltp-how-will-it-work/">the pattern</a> adopted by the European Union, or a real-world <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/_files/ugd/d0bd25_ba13c6aab78d4cf5bd81aa03a5c17571.pdf">Australian drive cycle</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">We thought Australian cars were using less fuel. New research shows we were wrong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="vehicles queue in tunnel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480264/original/file-20220822-53919-48a0ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480264/original/file-20220822-53919-48a0ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480264/original/file-20220822-53919-48a0ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480264/original/file-20220822-53919-48a0ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480264/original/file-20220822-53919-48a0ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480264/original/file-20220822-53919-48a0ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480264/original/file-20220822-53919-48a0ao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fuel efficiency standards must be based on real Australian driving patterns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Other things to consider</h2>
<p>The federal government should implement a single standard for all passenger vehicles – including all SUVs, without exception.</p>
<p>Australia’s voluntary system allows large road-based SUVs to <a href="https://www.fcai.com.au/library/publication/fcai_rules_for_calculating_co2_compliance.pdf">fall into the same category</a> as light commercial vehicles. This means they’re subject to less stringent fuel efficiency standards than cars. </p>
<p>This may inadvertently promote sales of heavy SUVs and, as a result, significantly increase real-world fuel consumption and associated emissions. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="SUV parked at side of road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480261/original/file-20220822-2925-3r6wep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/480261/original/file-20220822-2925-3r6wep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480261/original/file-20220822-2925-3r6wep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480261/original/file-20220822-2925-3r6wep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480261/original/file-20220822-2925-3r6wep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480261/original/file-20220822-2925-3r6wep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/480261/original/file-20220822-2925-3r6wep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">SUVs should comply with the same standards as other vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And Australia’s standards must also eliminate loopholes that could allow companies to comply with regulations but not actually improve fuel efficiency to the extent intended. </p>
<p>The considerations listed above are by no means exhaustive. And new fuel efficiency standards must be supported by other policy measures, such as reducing our reliance on private cars, and promoting public transport, walking and cycling.</p>
<p>Transport is Australia’s third-biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, and federal government moves to tackle this problem are welcome. But if fuel efficiency standards are not carefully designed, the sector will continue to <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">let down</a> motorists, and the planet.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188814/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Smit is the founder and director at Transport Energy/Emission Research Pty Ltd (TER) and an Adjunct Associate Professor at University of Technology Sydney.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Cooperative Research Centre, Level Crossing Removal Authority, City of Boroondara, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Transport for New South Wales, EmissionsIQ Pty Ltd, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications, and Beam Mobility Holdings</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nic Surawski has worked on projects funded by city councils, alternative engine design companies, the Australian Coal Association Research Program, the federal Department of Environment and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. Nic is a member of the Clean Air Society of Australia and New Zealand.</span></em></p>Labor has put fuel efficiency rules on the agenda. But the standards must be stringent and purpose-built for Australia.Robin Smit, Adjunct Associate Professor, University of Technology SydneyHussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of TechnologyNic Surawski, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Engineering, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1884432022-08-10T05:47:12Z2022-08-10T05:47:12ZWho’s holding back electric cars in Australia? We’ve long known the answer – and it’s time to clear the road<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478457/original/file-20220810-17-uigq99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4602%2C3061&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paul Miller/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>New analysis this week found strong fuel efficiency standards would have saved Australia A$5.9 billion in fuel costs and emissions equal to a year’s worth of domestic flights if the policy was adopted in 2015.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/new-analysis-5-9b-fuel-cost-saving-to-commuters-if-fuel-efficiency-standards-introduced/">finding</a>, by think-tank the Australia Institute, puts further pressure on the new federal government to bring our fuel efficiency standards in line with Europe and other developed nations. </p>
<p>Unlike other comparable countries, Australia does not have fuel efficiency standards for motor vehicles. On the face of it this is puzzling; aside from lower costs for motorists and fewer emissions, the policy would also decrease our reliance on imported oil. </p>
<p>But opposition from vested interests – including oil refineries and the car dealership industry – has held Australia back. The onus is now on the Albanese government to enact this obvious and long overdue policy which is crucial to the electric vehicle transition.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="smoke blows from tailpipe" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478455/original/file-20220810-4757-oao8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C1249%2C885&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478455/original/file-20220810-4757-oao8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478455/original/file-20220810-4757-oao8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478455/original/file-20220810-4757-oao8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478455/original/file-20220810-4757-oao8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478455/original/file-20220810-4757-oao8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478455/original/file-20220810-4757-oao8ef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unlike other comparable countries, Australia does not have fuel efficiency standards for motor vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ALEXANDER RUESCHE/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Long road, little progress</h2>
<p>So how would a fuel efficiency standard work? </p>
<p>Under a likely model, the government would set a national limit, averaged across all new cars sold, stipulating grams of CO₂ that can be emitted for each kilometre driven. This measure depends on fuel-efficiency: that is, the amount of fuel burnt per kilometre.</p>
<p>The limit would not apply to individual cars. Instead, each supplier of new light vehicles to Australia would have to make sure the mix of vehicles does not exceed the limit. Low-efficiency vehicles could still be sold, but car dealers would have to balance this out by selling enough high-efficiency vehicles. </p>
<p>Because electric vehicles don’t use fuel (or use less, in the case of hybrids), a fuel efficiency standard would give suppliers an incentive to include electric vehicles in the mix of vehicles they supply.</p>
<p>The prospect of fuel efficiency standards on light vehicles has regularly hit the national agenda in recent years. </p>
<p>In 2014, the Climate Change Authority prepared <a href="https://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/publications/light-vehicle-emissions-standards-australia">a detailed plan</a> for a standard and estimated the likely economic savings. The plan seemed well timed. Australia has traditionally produced large, fuel-guzzling cars like the Holden Commodore and Ford Falcon. At the time of the plan’s release, however, the last remaining domestic car manufacturers had just announced plans to close, removing the most likely source of political resistance. </p>
<p>But the Coalition government sat on the idea. It ran a string of <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure-transport-vehicles/vehicles/vehicle-safety-environment/ministerial-forum-emissions">reviews</a> before ultimately letting the issue drop. </p>
<p>In 2019, then-Opposition Leader Bill Shorten <a href="https://billshorten.com.au/news/bill-s-transcripts/doorstop-canberra-monday-1-april-2019/">pledged</a> fuel efficiency standards, as well as a target for electric vehicles to comprise half of new car sales by 2030. But he soon ran into Scott Morrison’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/07/shorten-wants-to-end-the-weekend-morrison-attacks-labors-electric-vehicle-policy">jibe</a> that Labor wanted to “end the weekend” and take away people’s utes. </p>
<p>Labor, of course, lost that election and Anthony Albanese dumped the fuel standards idea on becoming party leader.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/transport-is-letting-australia-down-in-the-race-to-cut-emissions-131905">Transport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="two smiling men sit in car" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478462/original/file-20220810-22-j4gj5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478462/original/file-20220810-22-j4gj5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478462/original/file-20220810-22-j4gj5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478462/original/file-20220810-22-j4gj5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=405&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478462/original/file-20220810-22-j4gj5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478462/original/file-20220810-22-j4gj5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478462/original/file-20220810-22-j4gj5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=509&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Coalition government failed to progress fuel efficiency standards.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">William West/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>But what about the benefits?</h2>
<p>A fuel efficiency standard would deliver significant benefits to Australia.</p>
<p>The first is economic. The report released this week is just the latest of many <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-could-have-saved-over-1-billion-in-fuel-if-car-emissions-standards-were-introduced-3-years-ago-117190">studies</a> showing motorists would have been slugged far less at the bowser if our cars used fuel more efficiently.</p>
<p>The second benefit is tackling climate change. Transport accounts for <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-quarterly-update-december-2021">nearly 20%</a> of Australia’s emissions and this share is increasing. </p>
<p>And while lab tests suggest cars sold in Australia are becoming somewhat more efficient, real world testing <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">shows the opposite</a>. If we are to achieve emissions cuts consistent with the goals of the Paris agreement, cutting emissions from transport is essential.</p>
<p>Third, Australia is almost entirely dependent on foreign fuel. So new efficiency standards would decrease overall liquid fuel consumption, leaving us less reliant on imports.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">We thought Australian cars were using less fuel. New research shows we were wrong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="woman fills white car with petrol" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478464/original/file-20220810-602-e6ok2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478464/original/file-20220810-602-e6ok2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478464/original/file-20220810-602-e6ok2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478464/original/file-20220810-602-e6ok2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478464/original/file-20220810-602-e6ok2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478464/original/file-20220810-602-e6ok2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478464/original/file-20220810-602-e6ok2b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fuel efficiency standards could have saved Australian motorists billions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Gourley/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s holding us back</h2>
<p>So why hasn’t Australia introduced this clearly beneficial policy? In short, because fuel inefficiency is deeply embedded in Australia’s automotive sector. </p>
<p>The strongest <a href="https://acapmag.com.au/2019/04/shortens-choice-fuel-standards-or-refineries/">initial resistance</a> to fuel efficiency standards came from the operators of refineries. Fuel-efficient cars require high-quality fuel. But Australia has long had among the <a href="https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/australias-dirty-fuel-and-when-itll-get-cleaner">dirtiest petrol</a> in the developed world in terms of sulphur content.</p>
<p>Australian refiners resisted fuel efficiency standards because they said the cost of upgrading their plants would put them out of business. But the Morrison government last year <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australia-prop-up-its-last-two-refineries-with-up-179-bln-2021-05-16/">funded</a> upgrades at Australia’s last two oil refineries, removing one obstacle. </p>
<p>Further resistance has come from <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/push-for-carbon-car-standards-should-surprise-nobody-20170712-gx9uc9.html">car dealers</a>. From a dealership perspective, it’s easier to sell a car with a low sticker price even if lifetime running costs are higher. </p>
<p>Fuel efficiency standards, and the subsequent large-scale shift to electric vehicles, would fundamentally undermine the business model of the Australian car dealership industry. Much of its <a href="https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-advice/dealer-profit-margins-explained-32397">profitability</a> comes from after-sales services required to maintain warranty protection, such as oil changes, transmission fluid and tune-ups. </p>
<p>None of these are needed in electric vehicles. The lifetime costs of maintaining an electric vehicle engine are <a href="https://motorandwheels.com/electric-cars-need-less-maintenance/">about half</a> those for a comparable internal combustion engine. At some point in their lives, an electric vehicle will require a new battery. But this will occur long after the initial sale.</p>
<p>Given all this, it’s not surprising the car industry is <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/revealed-car-industry-s-secret-emissions-plan-would-slow-electric-vehicle-uptake-20220805-p5b7pe.html">reportedly campaigning</a> to limit any new fuel efficiency standards and delay the shift to electric vehicles. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="cars and a van pause in from of sign saying 'prepare to stop'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478463/original/file-20220810-667-gwinsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/478463/original/file-20220810-667-gwinsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478463/original/file-20220810-667-gwinsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478463/original/file-20220810-667-gwinsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478463/original/file-20220810-667-gwinsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478463/original/file-20220810-667-gwinsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/478463/original/file-20220810-667-gwinsx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The car industry is reportedly campaigning to limit any new fuel efficiency standards.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>What now?</h2>
<p>The Albanese government has proposed some incentives to encourage a shift towards electric vehicles. But these limited measures won’t drive the dramatic transition that is needed. </p>
<p>Strong fuel efficiency standards would save motorists money, cut emissions and reduce Australia’s dependence on imported fuel. Anyway you look at it, the policy makes sense.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/government-assumes-90-of-australias-new-car-sales-will-be-electric-by-2050-but-its-a-destination-without-a-route-171741">Government assumes 90% of Australia’s new car sales will be electric by 2050. But it's a destination without a route</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188443/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin was a Member of the Climate Change Authority from 2012 to 2017</span></em></p>Opposition from vested interests – including oil refineries and the car dealership industry – has held Australia back on fuel efficiency. The onus is now on the Albanese government to intervene.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1762552022-02-12T16:36:52Z2022-02-12T16:36:52ZWhat is the ‘social cost of carbon’? 2 energy experts explain<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446038/original/file-20220212-17-f9qw0n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C13%2C4360%2C2865&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Capitol Power Plant, which uses fossil fuels.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/ObamaClimatePolitics/55211e853add422cb03911d1e33eed21/photo">AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When a power plant runs on coal or natural gas, the greenhouse gases it releases cause harm – but the power company isn’t paying for the damage. </p>
<p>Instead, the costs show up in the billions of tax dollars spent each year to deal with the effects of climate change, such as fighting wildfires and protecting communities from floods, and in rising insurance costs.</p>
<p>This damage is what economists call a “<a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/03/210301133829.htm">negative externality</a>.” It is a cost to society, including to future generations, that is not covered by the price people pay for fossil fuels and other <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks">activities that emit greenhouse gases</a>, like agriculture. </p>
<p>To try to account for some of the damage, federal policymakers use what’s known as a “social cost of carbon.” </p>
<h2>A tug-of-war over the social cost</h2>
<p>The social cost of carbon, a dollar figure per ton of carbon dioxide released, is factored into <a href="https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/codification/executive-order/12291.html">the costs and benefits of proposed regulations</a> and purchasing decisions, such as whether the Postal Service should buy electric- or gasoline-powered trucks, or where to set emissions standards for coal-fired power plants. </p>
<p>That extra social cost can tip the scales for whether a regulation’s costs appear to outweigh its benefits.</p>
<p>The Trump administration slashed the social cost to <a href="https://www.science.org/content/article/trump-downplayed-costs-carbon-pollution-s-about-change">between $1</a> and $7 per metric ton of carbon dioxide – low enough that the administration could justify rolling back EPA regulations on <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2018-08/documents/utilities_ria_proposed_ace_2018-08.pdf">power plant emissions</a> and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/safer-affordable-fuel-efficient-safe-vehicles-proposed">vehicle fuel efficiency</a>.</p>
<p>The Biden administration temporarily raised it to $51, close to its pre-Trump level, and has been preparing to finalize a new social cost that might encourage regulators to push for emissions cuts in everything from agriculture to transportation to manufacturing.</p>
<h2>What social cost means for you</h2>
<p>One of Joe Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/executive-order-protecting-public-health-and-environment-and-restoring-science-to-tackle-climate-crisis/">first actions</a> as president was to reverse the Trump administration’s bargain-basement accounting of the “social cost.” The Biden administration <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/02/26/a-return-to-science-evidence-based-estimates-of-the-benefits-of-reducing-climate-pollution/">returned it to the Obama-era level, adjusted for inflation</a>, by setting an interim social cost at $51 per metric ton of carbon dioxide that would rise over time.</p>
<p>If that were a carbon tax paid by consumers, it would raise gasoline by about 50 cents per gallon.</p>
<p>But the social cost of carbon has no direct effect on the price of gasoline, electricity, or emissions-intensive goods like steel. Instead, it influences purchasing and investments by the government, and indirectly, by private companies and consumers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Biden at a lectern with Hummer EVs in the assembly line behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446040/original/file-20220212-25314-wqw7gl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/446040/original/file-20220212-25314-wqw7gl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446040/original/file-20220212-25314-wqw7gl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446040/original/file-20220212-25314-wqw7gl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446040/original/file-20220212-25314-wqw7gl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446040/original/file-20220212-25314-wqw7gl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/446040/original/file-20220212-25314-wqw7gl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">President Joe Biden spoke at a GM electric vehicle factory in November 2021. The social cost of carbon can signal to automakers that stricter auto emissions rules are likely.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-speaks-at-the-general-motors-factory-news-photo/1236628917?adppopup=true">Nic Antaya/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>A higher social cost of carbon signals to companies that the government sees big benefits to cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Figuring in damage from emissions also helps it justify investments in green technology.</p>
<p>For instance, the U.S. Postal Service asked Congress in 2022 to approve $11.3 billion for a <a href="https://apnews.com/0a0ead5536be0e3561b4cb2fccccb7a3">new fleet</a> of gasoline-powered mail delivery trucks. Those vehicles would burn through <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/02/02/usps-trucks-epa-climate-change/">110 million gallons of gasoline a year</a>. At $51 per ton of emitted carbon, that purchase implies a social cost of $1.1 billion over 20 years. Incorporating such costs might push the government to consider <a href="https://www.government-fleet.com/10150653/zeta-usps-shows-bias-in-reasoning-for-ice-vehicles">including electric vehicles</a> in the future postal service fleet.</p>
<p>Currently, economists calculate the social cost by using <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-integrated-assessment-models-are-used-to-study-climate-change">integrated assessment models</a> that bring together long-term projections for population, economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. These models use emissions scenarios to estimate future climate change, and then calculate the effects on the country’s – and the world’s – GDP, and they can vary widely depending on the assumptions used. </p>
<p>For example, damage estimates for 2100 produced by the three models currently used in the government’s cost-setting process range from $80 to $290 per ton. The Biden administration set the interim social cost to rise to $85 by 2050 to account for greater impact of climate change over time.</p>
<p>Using models to produce such estimates have become a routine part of policymaking, but they are also <a href="https://www.nber.org/reporter/2017number3/integrated-assessment-models-climate-change">massively uncertain</a>.</p>
<h2>Why Trump’s social cost was so much lower</h2>
<p>The Trump administration’s estimate was lower for two reasons: It accounted for climate damage only within U.S. borders; and the administration placed a lower value on future costs by setting a discount rate of 7%, more than double the 3% used by Obama and Biden. Economists use different rates to “discount” future benefits versus the cost we pay today to get there. A high discount rate on climate means we put a lower value on damages that occur in the future. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, discount rates are contentious. New York state uses a <a href="https://www.dec.ny.gov/press/122070.html">2% discount rate</a> to produce its current social cost of carbon of $125 per ton. Some analysts argue for a 0% discount rate because anything higher places a lower value on costs borne by future generations.</p>
<p><iframe id="1gNSL" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/1gNSL/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Several Republican state attorneys general sued to try to block Biden’s interim increase, and a <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1972/cain-ruling-scc-021122.pdf">federal judge in Louisiana agreed</a> with their argument that global damages could not be considered in social costs tailored for U.S. regulations. The judge issued an injunction <a href="https://apnews.com/article/climate-joe-biden-business-trending-news-louisiana-8d06087eb01ebdcf8f60be06a99c05d0">blocking Biden’s interim increase</a>. But an appeals court <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2049/5th_Cir_Stay_of_SCC_injunction.pdf?1647527400">stayed that injunction</a>, allowing the higher social cost of carbon to again be used while the ruling was appealed, and the U.S. Supreme Court in May 2022 <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/05/justices-decline-to-block-biden-policy-on-social-costs-of-greenhouse-gases/">declined to lift the stay</a>. A similar lawsuit in Missouri <a href="https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/rep-ags-appeal-social-costs-greenhouse-gas-lawsuit-2021-09-03/">was dismissed</a>, and the Supreme Court <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/the-legal-battle-over-bidens-climate-metric-isnt-over/">declined to review it</a>.</p>
<p>Some scholars debate whether a social cost of carbon should be used at all.</p>
<p>The United Kingdom uses a “cost effectiveness analysis” instead to determine the value of carbon removal. That method uses a target – net-zero emissions – and calculates the cheapest route to get there. Some <a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w28472">prominent scholars</a> are recommending the U.S. adopt the U.K. approach, while <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi7813">others</a> object.</p>
<h2>Other options: Carbon taxes and emissions caps</h2>
<p>There are other ways to account for the costs of climate change.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-carbon-tax">carbon tax</a> is more straightforward and effective, but tougher to enact because it requires Congress to act. Such a tax would dissuade people from burning fossil fuels by taxing them for the damage those emissions cause – the negative externality.</p>
<p>Another form of carbon pricing uses a marketplace for companies to trade a declining number of emissions permits. Such <a href="https://www.epa.gov/acidrain/acid-rain-program">cap-and-trade</a> programs are in place today in the European Union, <a href="https://www.rggi.org/">a few U.S. states</a>, including <a href="https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program">California</a> and <a href="https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/washington-s-carbon-pricing-bill-model-other-states">Washington</a>, and elsewhere.</p>
<p>Taxes and emissions caps would reduce carbon emissions, but they are unpopular with voters and Congress because they raise prices. A social cost of carbon is easier both to enact and to modify through regulatory review, without legislation. It allows the government the flexibility to address climate through routine policymaking – but can also be changed by subsequent administrations.</p>
<p><em>This article was originally published Feb. 12, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176255/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The social cost helps regulators factor in harm from climate change when they consider new rules and purchases, like buying electric- vs. gas-powered trucks for the Postal Service.Jim Krane, Fellow in Energy Studies, Baker Institute for Public Policy; Lecturer, Rice UniversityMark Finley, Fellow in Energy and Global Oil, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1707052021-10-30T16:00:21Z2021-10-30T16:00:21ZHow to meet America’s climate goals: 5 policies for Biden’s next climate bill<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429413/original/file-20211029-13-zerdt6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3294%2C2169&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden wanted to have a clear plan before the U.N. climate conference starting Oct. 31 in Scotland.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/president-joe-biden-speaks-about-his-bipartisan-news-photo/1349024147">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Joe Biden’s new climate strategy, announced after his <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/utilities-push-to-weaken-bidens-signature-climate-plan/">original plan</a> crumbled under <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/heres-what-manchin-told-the-biden-team-on-climate-2/">opposition</a> in Congress, will represent a historic investment in clean energy technology and infrastructure if it is enacted. But it is still not likely to be enough to meet the administration’s emissions reduction goals for 2030.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/kelly-sims-gallagher">director</a> of the Fletcher School’s <a href="https://www.climatepolicylab.org/">Climate Policy Lab</a> at Tufts University, I analyze ways governments can manage climate change. </p>
<p>As the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/10/28/president-biden-announces-the-build-back-better-framework/">new plan</a> comes together, and the administration considers future steps, here are five types of policies that can help get the United States on track to achieve its climate targets. Together they would reassure the world that the United States can honor its climate commitments; help stave off the effects of a <a href="https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2021/08/10/carbon-border-tax-eu">carbon border tax</a> planned in Europe; and, if designed right, position U.S. workers and firms for the low-carbon economy of the 21st century.</p>
<h2>Industrial policy</h2>
<p>The United States’ ability to compete in low-carbon and resilience technologies such as energy storage has <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-needs-energy-industrial-strategy-and-everybody-knows-it">eroded over the past two decades</a>. </p>
<p>Part of the problem has been the political impasse in Washington over clean energy and climate policies. Over the past 20 years, tax credits, loan guarantees and regulations have started and stopped, depending on the political whims of whoever is in power in Congress and the White House. U.S. companies have gone bankrupt <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2012.11646">while waiting for markets to materialize</a>.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, European companies, with backing from their investment and development banks, and Chinese companies have surged ahead, using their home markets to demonstrate new technologies and build industries. Wind turbines are a good example. <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/272813/market-share-of-the-leading-wind-turbine-manufacturers-worldwide/">European companies, led by Denmark’s Vestas, controlled 43% of the wind turbine market globally</a> in 2018, and China controlled 30%. By contrast, the United States accounted for only 10%.</p>
<p>I believe the United States as a country needs to make choices about where it has comparative advantage, and then the federal government can chart a clear course forward to develop those industries and compete in those global markets. Will it be electric vehicles? Electricity storage? Technology for adaptation such as sea wall construction, flood control or wildfire management? Independent advice could be provided to the administration and Congress, perhaps by the National Academies of Science, and then Congress could authorize an investment plan to conditionally support these industries.</p>
<p>Tempting as it is to support all technologies, public dollars are scarce. Companies that receive subsidies must be held accountable with performance requirements, and taxpayers should get a return when those companies succeed. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two men standing on a slanted roof preparing to install a solar panel" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429415/original/file-20211029-13-m9acij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429415/original/file-20211029-13-m9acij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429415/original/file-20211029-13-m9acij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429415/original/file-20211029-13-m9acij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=430&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429415/original/file-20211029-13-m9acij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429415/original/file-20211029-13-m9acij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429415/original/file-20211029-13-m9acij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=540&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Workers install solar panels on a Virginia church.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/employees-with-ipsun-solar-unload-solar-panels-on-the-roof-news-photo/1232952092">Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>As part of industrial policy, officials also need to squarely face up to the fact that some workers, states, cities and towns with industries closely tied to fossil fuels are <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-for-states-that-grew-rich-from-oil-gas-and-coal-to-figure-out-whats-next-145295">vulnerable in the transition to cleaner energy</a>.</p>
<p>On an expert panel convened by the National Academies of Science and <a href="https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/accelerating-decarbonization-in-the-united-states-technology-policy-and-societal-dimensions">recent study</a>, colleagues and I recommended that the government establish a national transition corporation to provide support and opportunities for displaced workers and affected communities. These communities will need to diversify their economies and their tax bases. Regional planning grants, loans and other investments can help them pivot their economies to industries that contribute less to climate change. Establishing a U.S. infrastructure bank or green bank to fund low-emissions and resilience projects could help finance these investments.</p>
<p>Equally important is investing in the workforce needed for a low-carbon economy. The government can subsidize the development of programs at colleges and universities to serve this economy and provide scholarships for students.</p>
<h2>Fiscal tools</h2>
<p>Other policies can help generate the revenue needed to support the transition to a clean economy.</p>
<p>Obviously, removing subsidies for fossil fuel industries is a crucial step forward. One analysis estimated, conservatively, that the U.S. provides <a href="https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-fossil-fuel-subsidies-a-closer-look-at-tax-breaks-and-societal-costs">about US$20 billion a year in direct subsidies</a> to the fossil fuel industries. Estimates of <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/09/23/Still-Not-Getting-Energy-Prices-Right-A-Global-and-Country-Update-of-Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies-466004">indirect subsidies are much higher</a>.</p>
<p>Tax reform can also help, such as replacing some individual and corporate income taxes with a carbon tax. This policy tool would tax the carbon in fuels, creating an incentive for companies and consumers to reduce use of fuels with the greatest impact on the climate. To avoid overburdening low-income households, the government could reduce income taxes on lower-income households or provide a <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/550691-economists-a-us-carbon-tax-would-be-progressive">dividend check</a>.</p>
<p>Tax credits, loan guarantees, government procurement rules and investments in innovation are all useful tools and can shape markets for American companies. But these fiscal policy tools should not be permanent, and they should be phased down as technology costs come down.</p>
<h2>Investing in markets as well as innovation</h2>
<p>The government has the ability to both “push” and “pull” climate technologies into the marketplace. Government investments in research and human capital are “push”-type policies, because supporting research ensures that smart people will keep moving into the field.</p>
<p>The government can also “pull” in technologies by creating vibrant markets for them, which will provide further incentives to innovation and spur widespread deployment. Carbon taxes and <a href="https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/how-do-emissions-trading-systems-work/">emissions trading systems</a> can create predictable markets for industry because they provide long-term market signals that let companies know what to expect for years ahead, and they at least partially account for a product’s damage to the environment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An electric vehicle charging next to an EVs-only parking space" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429414/original/file-20211029-17-x4mg1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/429414/original/file-20211029-17-x4mg1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429414/original/file-20211029-17-x4mg1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429414/original/file-20211029-17-x4mg1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429414/original/file-20211029-17-x4mg1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429414/original/file-20211029-17-x4mg1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/429414/original/file-20211029-17-x4mg1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric vehicles are among the examples of a new market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/electric-vehicles-are-displayed-before-a-news-conference-news-photo/1232464216">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While the <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wcc.734">United States is investing in clean-energy research, development and demonstration</a>, it has been less successful than China or Europe – both of which have emissions trading systems – in developing predictable, durable markets.</p>
<h2>Performance standards</h2>
<p>A tried-and-true U.S. policy tool is the use of performance standards. These standards limit the amount of greenhouse gas emissions per unit, such as fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards for motor vehicles, energy efficiency standards for appliances and industrial equipment, and building efficiency standards at the state level. Fuel economy standards on automobiles since 1975 have saved about 2 trillion gallons of gas and reduced greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421520305048">by about 14 gigatons</a>, roughly three times the country’s <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=48856">annual emissions from energy in 2020</a>.</p>
<p>Performance standards give companies the flexibility to find the best way to comply, which can also fuel innovation. The Biden administration could develop new performance standards in each major emitting sector – vehicles, power plants and buildings. <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/articles/energy-codes-101-what-are-they-and-what-does-role">Federally imposed building codes</a>, which are set at the state and local levels, would be a difficult political lift.</p>
<p>The laws that established the government’s authority to set standards, such as the Clean Air Act and Energy Policy Act, have some ambiguities that can leave standards vulnerable to court challenge, however. Legal challenges have led to a zigzag in regulations in some sectors, most obviously the power sector.</p>
<h2>Nature-based solutions and state legislation</h2>
<p>A final area where policy is needed is for nature-based solutions. These might be fiscal incentives for restoring forests, which store carbon, or protecting existing lands from development, or they might be regulations.</p>
<p>Laws and regulations at the state level can also be enormously powerful in changing the U.S. emissions trajectory.</p>
<h2>Biden’s Plan B</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/details-emerge-on-house-clean-electricity-performance-program-66539116">centerpiece</a> of Biden’s original climate plan was a program designed to reward and pressure utilities to shift electricity production away from fossil fuels faster. With the Senate split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, West Virginia Democrat <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/25/us/politics/manchin-climate-budget.html">Joe Manchin’s opposition sank the plan</a>.</p>
<p>The Biden administration’s new <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/22/climate/biden-climate-plan.html">Plan B</a> has a number of <a href="https://www.rhg.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Rhodium-Group_Pathways-to-Paris-A-Policy-Assessment-of-the-2030-US-Climate-Target.pdf">heroic assumptions</a> and relies heavily on fiscal and regulatory tools, along with lots of state-level actions.</p>
<p>Missing from Plan B is the emphasis on innovation and industrial policy, both of which might have a larger impact on U.S. emissions. The elephant in the room that cannot be ignored is that the United States needs a climate bill that puts its targets for reducing emissions by 2030 and 2050 into law, gives the right government agencies the authority to set policies and addresses industrial and workforce needs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/170705/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Climate Policy Lab directed by Kelly Sims Gallagher receives funding from a number of sponsors listed at <a href="https://www.climatepolicylab.org/support">https://www.climatepolicylab.org/support</a>. She is a member of the board of the Belfer Center at the Harvard Kennedy School and Energy Foundation China. She is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and currently serves on the study committee of the National Academies of Sciences study on accelerating decarbonization in the United States. </span></em></p>President Joe Biden needed a Plan B, one that Congress could approve, to take to the UN climate conference. But his new strategy is unlikely to meet the country’s emissions reduction goals for 2030.Kelly Sims Gallagher, Professor of Energy and Environmental Policy and Director, Center for International Environment and Resource Policy at The Fletcher School, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1530852021-01-28T13:30:07Z2021-01-28T13:30:07ZTo make the US auto fleet greener, increasing fuel efficiency matters more than selling electric vehicles<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380927/original/file-20210127-19-1focpcx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C0%2C5472%2C3620&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A used car superstore in Colma, California.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/view-of-a-carmax-superstore-on-september-24-2020-in-colma-news-photo/1276492605?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Biden has proposed ambitious goals for <a href="https://joebiden.com/climate-plan/">curbing climate change and investing in a cleaner U.S. economy</a>. One critical sector is transportation, which <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks">generates 28% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions</a> – more than either electric power production or industry. </p>
<p>Shifting from cars that run on gasoline and diesel to electric vehicles, or EVs, is a key strategy to address transportation’s contribution to global warming. Industry watchers expect big federal investments in <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/joe-biden-administration-ev-autos-transportation-infrastructure/">charging stations and tax credits</a> for electric cars. But as Biden’s Day One <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/executive-order-protecting-public-health-and-environment-and-restoring-science-to-tackle-climate-crisis/">executive order on climate and the environment</a> recognized, an even greater priority is making gasoline vehicles more fuel-efficient. </p>
<p>My research focuses on energy problems, including <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=wQ5IYG4AAAAJ&hl=en">transportation and climate change</a>. I believe though EVs are important, it’s emissions from the entire automobile fleet – meaning vehicles of all types and sizes – that ultimately matter for climate. Motorcars <a href="https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/809952">stay on the road for a long time</a>, so failing to adequately reduce gasoline vehicle emissions this year burdens the atmosphere with excess carbon dioxide (CO2) for many years ahead. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Pmt4khA-3ks?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">California will end sales of gas-powered cars by 2035, but used gas-powered cars will remain on the market for years longer.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Electric cars in context</h2>
<p>The media spotlight on EVs can lend them outsize importance in discussions of the car-climate challenge. Tesla’s leadership on electrification has boosted its stock to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-stocks/tesla-hits-record-high-in-first-trading-session-of-2021-idUSKBN2990ZR">record levels</a>. GM has made the news with its <a href="https://www.motortrend.com/news/2021-ces-gm-chevy-cadillac-buick-hummer-evs-details/">announcements of new EVs</a> in the making, and all major automakers worldwide now have ambitious EV plans.</p>
<p>Even after accounting for emissions caused by generating electricity to power them, research shows that EVs clearly <a href="http://dx.doi.org/%2010.1257/pol.20190390">provide environmental benefits</a>. They <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/electricvehicles/reducing-pollution-electric-vehicles">emit fewer pollutants</a> that contribute to climate change and smog than gasoline-powered vehicles. And they avoid the environmental damage associated with drilling for oil, refining it into gasoline and transporting it to filling stations. </p>
<p>For these reasons, but especially because of EVs’ crucial role in cutting carbon, California aims to require new cars and light trucks sold in the state <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-announces-california-will-phase-out-gasoline-powered-cars-drastically-reduce-demand-for-fossil-fuel-in-californias-fight-against-climate-change/">to be all-electric by 2035</a>. More than a dozen other states are adopting California’s clean-car strategies. Massachusetts recently <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gasoline-car-sales-to-end-by-2035-in-massachusetts/">announced its own plan</a> to effectively ban sales of new gasoline-powered personal vehicles by 2035. </p>
<p>However, EVs are not yet close to having a measurable net impact on CO2 reduction. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s <a href="https://www.epa.gov/automotive-trends">automotive trends report</a>, even as EVs have gained market share, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2021/01/07/us-gas-mileage-new-vehicles-down-first-time-5-years/6578610002/">carbon-cutting progress has ground to a halt</a>.</p>
<p>Why? The surging popularity of highly fuel-consumptive pickups and SUVs. Indeed, EPA data show that to date, higher emissions from the market shift to larger, more powerful vehicles have <a href="https://www.carsclimate.com/2021/01/personal-trucks-widen-emissions-gap.html">swamped potential CO2 reductions from electric vehicles</a> by a factor of five. </p>
<p><iframe id="clCGm" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/clCGm/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The role of clean-car standards</h2>
<p>To appreciate this conundrum, it helps to understand how federal clean-car standards work. These regulations combine <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/corporate-average-fuel-economy">Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards</a> with <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/regulations-greenhouse-gas-emissions-passenger-cars-and">greenhouse gas emission standards</a>. The two sets of rules are coordinated, because cars that get more miles per gallon have lower CO2 emission rates. </p>
<p>Both types of standards apply to automakers on a fleetwide basis. Therefore, when automakers increase their sales of EVs and other high-efficiency vehicles, they can sell a greater number of less fuel-efficient SUVs and pickup trucks while still meeting their fleet average greenhouse gas emission limits. </p>
<p>As a result, each additional EV sold does not yield a net CO2 reduction overall. In fact, because EVs get extra credit under the standards, electric car sales are now <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2019.04.003">increasing fleet-average emissions</a> to a level slightly higher than they would be without EVs in the mix. </p>
<p>Automakers also exploit flexibility provisions built into the regulations. For example, a firm’s standard <a href="https://www.autonews.com/article/20160814/OEM11/308159946/is-cafe-making-cars-bigger">gets weaker when it makes its vehicles larger</a>. On top of that, vehicles classified as light trucks – including four-wheel-drive and large SUVs as well as vans and pickups – are held to weaker standards than those classified as cars. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1354531534821183489"}"></div></p>
<p>In spite of this regulatory flexibility, automakers lobbied the Trump administration to <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/after-years-of-green-promises-us-automakers-renege-on-emissions-standards">weaken clean-car standards</a> that had been developed under the Obama administration. In response, the Trump administration <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2020/03/31/trump-rolls-back-obama-mpg-rules/5093643002/">gutted the regulations</a> in 2020. President Biden has directed federal agencies to <a href="https://www.autoblog.com/2021/01/20/biden-vehicle-emissions-standards/">revisit this issue</a>, but for now, the weak existing standards mean that little carbon-cutting progress is on the horizon. </p>
<h2>Real promises require legal obligation</h2>
<p>Automakers recognize the future importance of electrification. Most major car manufacturers have pledged to <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/traditional-auto-makers-are-getting-into-evs-here-are-their-plans-to-battle-tesla-51606734002">bring a growing number of EVs to market</a>. Nevertheless, EVs <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/opinion/contributors/2019/01/11/electric-cars-evs/2535200002/">still face many obstacles</a> to widespread use, including <a href="https://morningconsult.com/2019/05/22/for-widespread-adoption-of-electric-vehicles-many-roadblocks-ahead/">higher price tags and lower convenience for many consumers</a>. </p>
<p>Even as EVs’ prices fall, driving ranges rise and charging stations proliferate, the <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/a32600212/ev-charging-time/">time required to charge EVs</a> will remain a barrier. It’s therefore <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a35118090/are-we-ready-for-the-zero-emission-future/">unclear whether the pieces are in place</a> for a rapid transition to an all-electric automotive future. </p>
<p><iframe id="HFSYB" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HFSYB/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Adopting clean-car standards that grow progressively more stringent each year and require automakers to cut CO2 emissions from all the vehicles they sell would ensure that technological promises translate to actual emission reductions. This approach underpinned the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/autos-must-average-545-mpg-by-2025-new-epa-standards-are-expected-to-say/2012/08/28/2c47924a-f117-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_story.html">Obama administration’s 2012 standards</a>, which originally were designed to achieve a nearly 5% yearly average reduction in new-fleet CO2 emission rates. </p>
<p>Some automakers seem to want to sidestep any serious obligation to meaningfully reduce emissions. General Motors has been on a <a href="https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/general-motors/2021/01/11/gm-goes-big-consumer-electronics-show-bolster-ev-cred/6625599002/">publicity blitz</a> about its EV plans, but the company has been notably silent on restoring strong clean-car standards. </p>
<p>In contrast, Ford, Honda, BMW and Volkswagen have cooperated with California to develop a plan <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN27S3AM">more in line with climate protection needs</a>. I would argue that even more stringent standards are needed to make up for lost time and put the fleet on track to a zero-carbon goal. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/the-daily-3?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p>
<p>Although it’s not a good reason for weak standards, automakers raise a valid concern when they point to weak marketwide interest in cleaner cars. Consumer demand for more efficient vehicles waxes and wanes with gasoline prices, but there’s an ongoing need to continually reduce CO2 emissions. </p>
<p>Although green groups and green-leaning policymakers have mounted extensive efforts to promote EVs, there is no comparable level of effort to <a href="http://www.autonews.com/article/20180521/MOBILITY/180529995/1137">encourage consumers to choose greener gasoline vehicles</a>. That’s a missing link in clean-car strategy.</p>
<p>In short, to cut carbon from cars sooner rather than later, it is crucial to greatly improve the fuel economy of the gasoline vehicles that will still be sold in the years ahead. This is especially true for the pickups and SUVs that comprise the highest-emitting part of the fleet. At the end of the day, total emissions from the entire vehicle market matter much more for the planet than green niches glowing in the spotlight.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153085/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John M. DeCicco, Ph.D., is a Research Professor Emeritus retired from the University of Michigan. He remains professionally active in energy research and teaches the "Mobility and the Environment" module as part of the University of Michigan's online Foundations of Mobility credential. He currently receives no funding, but his past work on vehicle efficiency was supported by environmental foundations and organizations. </span></em></p>Electric cars get a lot of hype, but what really matters for the climate are excess emissions from the many millions of gasoline vehicles still sold each year.John DeCicco, Research Professor Emeritus, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1402462020-06-09T19:54:05Z2020-06-09T19:54:05ZClimate explained: does your driving speed make any difference to your car’s emissions?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340440/original/file-20200608-176538-15lwe35.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C149%2C4695%2C3009&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">SP Photo/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/287622/original/file-20190811-144878-bvgm9l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p><em><strong><a href="https://theconversation.com/nz/topics/climate-explained-74664">Climate Explained</a></strong> is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.</em> </p>
<p><em>If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz</em></p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Does reducing speed reduce emissions from the average car?</strong> </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Every car has an optimal speed range that results in minimum fuel consumption, but this range differs between vehicle types, design and age.</p>
<p>Typically it looks like this graph below: fuel consumption rises from about 80km/h, partly because air resistance increases.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/340495/original/file-20200609-165349-1dwyw4r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>But speed is only one factor. No matter what car you are driving, you can reduce fuel consumption (and therefore emissions) by driving more smoothly. </p>
<p>This includes anticipating corners and avoiding sudden braking, taking the foot off the accelerator just before reaching the peak of a hill and cruising over it, and removing roof racks or bull bars and heavier items from inside when they are not needed to make the car lighter and more streamlined. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-the-environmental-footprint-of-electric-versus-fossil-cars-124762">Climate explained: the environmental footprint of electric versus fossil cars</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Driving wisely</h2>
<p>In New Zealand, <a href="https://www.aa.co.nz/about/newsroom/media-releases/events/aa-energywise-rally-starts-with-a-rush/">EnergyWise rallies</a> used to be run over a 1200km course around the North Island. They were designed to demonstrate how much fuel could be saved through good driving habits. </p>
<p>The competing drivers had to reach each destination within a certain time period. Cruising too slowly at 60-70km/h on straight roads in a 100km/h zone just to save fuel was not an option (also because driving too slowly on open roads can contribute to accidents). </p>
<p>The optimum average speed (for both professional and average drivers) was typically around 80km/h. The key to saving fuel was driving smoothly. </p>
<p>In the first rally in 2002, the Massey University entry was a brand new diesel-fuelled Volkswagen Golf (kindly loaned by VW NZ), running on 100% biodiesel made from waste animal fat (as Z Energy has been <a href="https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2018/05/02/106691/biofuels-z-energys-tortuous-carbon-solution">producing</a>). </p>
<p>A car running on fossil diesel emits about 2.7kg of carbon dioxide per litre and a petrol car produces 2.3kg per litre. Using biofuels to displace diesel or petrol can reduce emissions by up to 90% per kilometre if the biofuel is made from animal fat from a meat works. The amount varies depending on the source of the biofuel (sugarcane, wheat, oilseed rape). And of course it would be unacceptable if biofuel crops were replacing food crops or forests.</p>
<p>Regardless of the car, drivers can reduce fuel consumption by 15-20% by improving driving habits alone – reducing emissions and saving money at the same time. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-what-each-of-us-can-do-to-reduce-our-carbon-footprint-123851">Climate explained: what each of us can do to reduce our carbon footprint</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Fuel efficiency</h2>
<p>When you are thinking of replacing your car, taking into account fuel efficiency is another important way to save on fuel costs and reduce emissions.</p>
<p>Many countries, including the US, Japan, China and nations within the European Union, have had fuel efficiency standards for more than a decade. This has driven car manufacturers to design ever <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/files/Light%20Vehicle%20Report/CCA_TransportReport_Appendices.WEB.pdf">more fuel-efficient vehicles</a>.</p>
<p>Most light-duty vehicles sold globally are subject to these standards. But Australia and New Zealand have both dragged the chain in this regard, partly because most vehicles are imported. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-could-have-saved-over-1-billion-in-fuel-if-car-emissions-standards-were-introduced-3-years-ago-117190">Australians could have saved over $1 billion in fuel if car emissions standards were introduced 3 years ago</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>New Zealand also remains hesitant about introducing a “<a href="https://www.consumer.org.nz/articles/government-announces-consultation-light-vehicle-fleet-feebate">feebate</a>” scheme, which proposes a fee on imported high-emission cars to make imported hybrids, electric cars and other efficient vehicles cheaper with a subsidy.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, driving an <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-switching-to-electric-transport-makes-sense-even-if-electricity-is-not-fully-renewable-136502">electric car results in low emissions</a> because electricity generation is 85% renewable. In Australia, which still relies on coal-fired power, electric cars are responsible for higher emissions unless they are recharged through a local renewable electricity supply.</p>
<p>Fuel and electricity prices will inevitably rise. But whether we drive a petrol or electric car, we can all shield ourselves from some of those future price rises by driving more efficiently and less speedily. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-why-switching-to-electric-transport-makes-sense-even-if-electricity-is-not-fully-renewable-136502">Climate explained: why switching to electric transport makes sense even if electricity is not fully renewable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140246/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ralph Sims does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You can reduce your fuel consumption by 15-20% with improved driving habits alone – reducing emissions and saving money at the same time.Ralph Sims, Professor, School of Engineering and Advanced Technology, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1319052020-03-01T19:03:38Z2020-03-01T19:03:38ZTransport is letting Australia down in the race to cut emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317523/original/file-20200227-24664-mmpjep.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=92%2C134%2C5515%2C3362&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cars-stuck-traffic-intersection-120564112">e2dan/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>At a time Australia is meant to be reducing its greenhouse emissions, the upward trend in transport sector emissions continues. The <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-september-2019">latest National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a> report released last week shows the transport sector emitted 102 million tonnes (Mt) of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂-e) in the 12 months to September 2019. This was 18.9% of Australia’s emissions. </p>
<p>Overall, the trend in emissions from all sectors have been essentially flat since 2013. If Australia is to reduce emissions, all sectors including transport must pull their weight. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-our-cities-can-cut-transport-emissions-in-a-hurry-avoid-shift-share-and-improve-106076">Four ways our cities can cut transport emissions in a hurry: avoid, shift, share and improve</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317522/original/file-20200227-24690-1g2lk7m.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Overall trend emissions, by quarter, September 2009 to September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/nggi-quarterly-update-sep-2019.pdf">National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Transport emissions have <a href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/nggi-quarterly-update-sep-2019.pdf">gone up 64% since 1990</a>. That’s the largest percentage increase of any sector. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317508/original/file-20200227-24655-2gz9ko.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=445&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Transport emissions, actual and trend, by quarter, September 2009 to September 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/nggi-quarterly-update-sep-2019.pdf">Source: National Greenhouse Gas Inventory</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Transport sector emissions include the direct burning of fuels for road, rail, domestic aviation and domestic shipping, but exclude electricity for electric trains.</p>
<p>Transport emissions are now equal second with stationary energy (fuels consumed in the manufacturing, construction and commercial sectors and heating) at 18.9%. The electricity sector produces 33.6% of all emissions. The main reasons for transport emissions trending upwards are an over-dependence on cars with high average fuel use and an over-reliance on energy-intensive road freight.</p>
<h2>Inevitable results of policy failure</h2>
<p>Increasing transport emissions are a result of long-standing government policies on both sides of politics. In 2018, the Climate Council <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/transport-climate-change/">noted</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australia’s cars are more polluting; our relative investment in and use of public and active transport options is lower than comparable countries; and we lack credible targets, policies, or plans to reduce greenhouse gas pollution from transport.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>John Quiggin and Robin Smit recently <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">wrote about vehicle fuel efficiency</a> for The Conversation. They cited <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_9527cdcb01a84440a53308b3b5624320.pdf">new research</a> that indicates emissions from road transport will accelerate. This is largely due to increased sales of heavier vehicles, such as four-wheel drives, and diesel cars. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-thought-australian-cars-were-using-less-fuel-new-research-shows-we-were-wrong-122378">We thought Australian cars were using less fuel. New research shows we were wrong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The government has ignored recommendations to adopt mandatory fuel-efficiency standards for road passenger vehicles. Australia is the <a href="http://theconversation.com/labors-plan-for-transport-emissions-is-long-on-ambition-but-short-on-details-114592">only OECD country without such standards</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/NEEA%20October%202019%20%5BWeb%5D_2.pdf">Research by Hugh Saddler</a> found a marked increase in CO₂ emissions from burning diesel (up 21.7Mt between 2011 and 2018). A 2015 Turnbull government initiative to phase in from 2020 to 2025 a standard of 105g of CO₂ per kilometre for light vehicles was “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/02/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-diesel-vehicles-cancelled-out-cuts-from-renewable-energy">shelved after internal opposition</a> and criticism from the automotive lobby”. </p>
<p>At the same time, the uptake of electric vehicles is slow. Economist Ross Garnaut, in his 2019 book <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Superpower.html?id=KPiPDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false">Superpower: Australia’s Low-Carbon Opportunity</a>, sums it up:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australia is late in preparation for and investment in electric road transport.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/clean-green-machines-the-truth-about-electric-vehicle-emissions-122619">Clean, green machines: the truth about electric vehicle emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia’s low transport energy efficiency (and so high CO₂ emissions) has also attracted overseas attention. The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy <a href="https://www.aceee.org/portal/national-policy/international-scorecard">rates the world’s 25 largest energy users</a> for sectors including transportation. In 2018, Australia slipped two places to 18th overall. It was <a href="http://www.aceee.org/sites/default/files/publications/researchreports/i1801.pdf">20th for transportation with just 6.5 points</a> out of a possible 25 on nine criteria.</p>
<p>On four of these criteria, Australia scored zero: fuel economy of passenger vehicles, having no fuel-efficiency standards for passenger vehicles and heavy trucks, and having no smart freight programs.</p>
<p>For vehicle travel per capita, the score was half a point. For three metrics – freight task per GDP, use of public transport, and investment in rail transit versus roads – Australia scored just one point each. </p>
<p>Only in one metric, energy intensity of freight transport, did Australia get full marks. This was a result of the very high energy efficiency of the iron ore railways in Western Australia’s Pilbara region.</p>
<p>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/infrastructure/imf-says-australia-has-overspent-on-roads-20180221-h0wfin">questioned</a> the Australian government’s preference for funding roads rather than more energy-efficient rail transport. The IMF <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2019/02/13/Australia-2018-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-46612">says</a> Australia should be spending more on infrastructure, but this should be on rail, airports and seaports, rather than roads. </p>
<h2>What can be done</h2>
<p>The first thing is to acknowledge that our preferred passenger transport modes of cars and planes cause more emissions than trains, buses, cycling and walking. For example, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49349566">CO₂ emissions per passenger km</a> can be 171 grams for a passenger car as against 41g for domestic rail. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=205&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/317520/original/file-20200227-24701-1gktt92.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=258&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2019">Data source: Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2019</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For freight, our high dependence on trucks rather than rail or sea freight increases emissions by a factor of three.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-plan-for-transport-emissions-is-long-on-ambition-but-short-on-details-114592">Labor's plan for transport emissions is long on ambition but short on details</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A 1996 report, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/1996/report_094">Transport and Greenhouse</a>, from what is now the federal Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), reviewed no fewer than 16 measures (including five “no regrets” measures) to cut transport emissions. In a 2002 report, <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2002/report_105">Greenhouse Policy Options for Transport</a>, BITRE offered 11 measures to reduce vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT), nine measures to reduce emissions per VKT, and four road-pricing measures (mass-distance charges for heavy trucks, tolls, internalising transport externalities and emission charging). </p>
<p>BITRE last appeared to revisit this important issue in a <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2009/wp_073">2009 report</a> on transport emission projections to 2020. This report projected a total of 103.87Mt CO₂-e for 2019. Actual 2019 transport emissions will be about 102Mt. </p>
<p>It’s important to note that BITRE’s 2009 projection was on a business-as-usual basis. The current level of about 4 tonnes a year per person is <a href="https://www.australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/sites/default/files/2003_Laird.pdf">where Australia was in 2000</a>.</p>
<p>Clearly, Australia needs to do better. As well as the BITRE remedies, another remedy would be to <a href="https://www.australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/sites/default/files/2003_Laird.pdf">adopt a 2002 National Action Plan</a> approved by the Australian Transport Council in collaboration with the Commonwealth, state and territory governments. The plan included, within ten years, “programs that encourage people to take fewer trips by car” and a shift “from predominantly fixed to predominantly variable costs” to “ensure that transport users experience more of the true cost of their travel choices”. This did not proceed. </p>
<p>However, New Zealand has effectively adopted this approach for many years. Petrol excise is now <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-natural-resources/energy-generation-and-markets/liquid-fuel-market/duties-taxes-and-direct-levies-on-motor-fuels-in-new-zealand/">66.524 cents per litre</a> (just <a href="https://www.ato.gov.au/business/excise-and-excise-equivalent-goods/fuel-excise/excise-rates-for-fuel/">42.3c/l in Australia</a>) and the revenue goes to the National Land Transport Fund for roads and alternatives to roads, resulting also in lower registration fees for cars. New Zealand has had mass distance pricing for heavy trucks for 40 years. These measures have not stopped its economy performing well. </p>
<p>Why do measures that would reduce transport emissions continue to be so elusive in Australia?</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131905/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird owns shares in some transport companies and has received funding from the two rail-related CRCs as well as the ARC and the former Energy R&D Corporation. He is affiliated, inter alia, with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, the Rail Futures Institute and Engineers Australia. The opinions expressed are those of the author.</span></em></p>The continued upward trend in our second-biggest source of emissions is a result of government inaction on a transport mix dominated by trucks and cars and a lack of fuel-efficiency standards.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1223782019-10-11T02:45:33Z2019-10-11T02:45:33ZWe thought Australian cars were using less fuel. New research shows we were wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296398/original/file-20191010-188823-16j0ksr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C25%2C4217%2C2746&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Traffic congestion on the M5 motorway in Sydney. Government assumptions that Australian cars are becoming more fuel efficient are incorrect, research shows.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In several speeches of late, Prime Minister Scott Morrison insisted with a straight face that Australia is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/26/scott-morrison-says-australias-record-on-climate-change-misrepresented-by-media">doing its bit on climate change</a>. The claim was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-30/morrison-un-speech/11553594">swiftly</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2019/sep/26/fact-check-scott-morrisons-un-speech-about-australias-environmental-achievements-video">thoroughly</a> debunked. The truth is that the Morrison government is piggybacking on the efforts of others, to varying degrees of success.</p>
<p>We saw it in electricity generation, where the federal government has rejected a string of schemes to reduce emissions. Nonetheless the electricity sector is getting cleaner as ageing coal-fired power stations are replaced by renewables. This outcome owes nothing to federal government action. It reflects state government policies and the residual effects of the previous Labor government’s Renewable Energy Target, and public pressure that forced banks and insurance companies to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/26/insurance-giant-suncorp-says-it-will-no-longer-cover-new-thermal-coal-projects">stop supporting fossil fuels</a>. </p>
<p>In the transport sector, after <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_0e5b82c440c7482a8e0d645f2d931f57.pdf">decades of inaction</a>, the government rejected recommendations from the Climate Change Authority to impose fuel efficiency standards on passenger vehicles, leaving Australia as the <a href="http://theconversation.com/labors-plan-for-transport-emissions-is-long-on-ambition-but-short-on-details-114592">only OECD country without such standards</a>. It has similarly derided action to <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/butler-says-hard-right-makes-it-long-road-back-for-electric-vehicle-policy-67786/">promote the use of electric vehicles.</a></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-could-have-saved-over-1-billion-in-fuel-if-car-emissions-standards-were-introduced-3-years-ago-117190">Australians could have saved over $1 billion in fuel if car emissions standards were introduced 3 years ago</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Instead, the Coalition is relying on the hope that carbon dioxide emission rates of Australia’s new passenger vehicle fleet will reduce over time without any effort by governments, because <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_0e5b82c440c7482a8e0d645f2d931f57.pdf">vehicle emissions legislation</a> overseas, where Australia’s cars are made, is delivering technological improvements. <a href="https://ris.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/posts/2017/02/efficiency_standards_for_new_light_vehicles_ris_for_consultation.pdf">Official projections</a> state that some, but not all, of this improvement will flow through to Australia.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this assumption is not reliable. New research shows that for the first time, fuel efficiency in Australia is getting worse, not better. In the absence of positive action from governments, transport emissions will continue to grow, and even accelerate.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292388/original/file-20190913-2140-zaju43.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/292388/original/file-20190913-2140-zaju43.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292388/original/file-20190913-2140-zaju43.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292388/original/file-20190913-2140-zaju43.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292388/original/file-20190913-2140-zaju43.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292388/original/file-20190913-2140-zaju43.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/292388/original/file-20190913-2140-zaju43.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=635&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/128ae060-ac07-4874-857e-dced2ca22347/files/australias-emissions-projections-2018.pdf">Department of Environment and Energy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A nation of car lovers, and carbon belchers</h2>
<p>Total road travel in Australia rose from 181 billion km in 2000 to <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9208.0">255 billion km</a> in 2018 - a 41% increase.</p>
<p>Total CO₂ emissions from road transport increased by <a href="http://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/">31%</a> between 2000 and 2017, rising from 16% of total emissions in 2000 to 22% in 2017. With no action, transport emissions are <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/transport-emissions-and-climate-solutions/">projected to reach 111 million tonnes of CO₂ by 2030</a>.</p>
<p>Emissions have grown more slowly than kilometres travelled, which suggests that improvements in fuel efficiency have partially mitigated the effect of increased travel. Reducing emissions from transport will require a stronger decline in emissions intensity (CO₂ emissions per kilometre travelled) from our vehicles. Under current policies, this will not happen.</p>
<h2>Our assumptions are all wrong</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_9527cdcb01a84440a53308b3b5624320.pdf">recent analysis</a>
by <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com">Transport Energy/Emission Research</a> (TER) found the actual emissions intensity of new Australian passenger vehicles has stabilised and likely increased in recent years.</p>
<p>This finding directly contradicts projections that emissions intensity will fall without government intervention.</p>
<p>The chart below shows the average fleet emission rates officially reported in Europe, the US and Japan, and based on laboratory tests. When compared to these jurisdictions, Australia’s new passenger vehicles have significantly higher average CO₂ emission rates, and thus fuel consumption, than other countries, but all show a decline.</p>
<p><strong>Official new private vehicle fleet average CO₂ emission rates 2000-17</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290595/original/file-20190902-175696-1xkqvbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290595/original/file-20190902-175696-1xkqvbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290595/original/file-20190902-175696-1xkqvbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290595/original/file-20190902-175696-1xkqvbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290595/original/file-20190902-175696-1xkqvbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=304&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290595/original/file-20190902-175696-1xkqvbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290595/original/file-20190902-175696-1xkqvbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290595/original/file-20190902-175696-1xkqvbp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_e27faf5fcaaa4d8ba11c6aefc2d61774.pdf">Real-World CO2 Emissions Performance of the Australian New Passenger Vehicle Fleet 2008-2018, TER</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Unfortunately, real-world emissions and fuel consumption deviate substantially – and increasingly – from laboratory tests that are used to produce the officially reported CO₂ figures. This discrepancy is often referred to as “the gap”. So in reality, the reduction in CO₂ emission rates is not as large as official laboratory results suggest.</p>
<p>There are multiple reasons for this gap, such as the laboratory test protocol itself, and strategies used by car manufacturers -and allowed by the test - to achieve <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_9527cdcb01a84440a53308b3b5624320.pdf">lower emissions in laboratory conditions</a>. </p>
<p>TER corrected the official Australian figures to reflect real world emissions. It found that carbon emission intensity stopped declining around 2014 and is now increasing. This suggests that, for the first time, fuel efficiency is no longer improving and is actually getting worse.</p>
<p><strong>Official vs real-world CO₂ emission rates for Australia’s new private vehicle fleet</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290596/original/file-20190903-175678-1ucb8ji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290596/original/file-20190903-175678-1ucb8ji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/290596/original/file-20190903-175678-1ucb8ji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290596/original/file-20190903-175678-1ucb8ji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290596/original/file-20190903-175678-1ucb8ji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290596/original/file-20190903-175678-1ucb8ji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290596/original/file-20190903-175678-1ucb8ji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/290596/original/file-20190903-175678-1ucb8ji.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_e27faf5fcaaa4d8ba11c6aefc2d61774.pdf">Real-World CO2 Emissions Performance of the Australian New Passenger Vehicle Fleet 2008-2018, TER</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The upshot is that total CO₂ emissions from road transport are increasing, and will accelerate in the future.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_9527cdcb01a84440a53308b3b5624320.pdf">TER study</a>
identified the likely reasons for this: increased sales of heavy vehicles, such as four-wheel drives, and diesel cars. The latter may have a reputation for fuel efficiency, but they still emit, on average, about 10% more CO₂ than petrol cars. Australian diesel cars are, on average, about 40% heavier than petrol cars, and have 15% higher engine capacity.</p>
<h2>The road ahead</h2>
<p>The worsening picture in road transport emissions will increasingly drag down Australia’s efforts to meet its modest climate goals set in Paris - even with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-institute-analysis-adds-to-pacific-pile-on-over-morrisons-climate-policy-121817">accounting tricks</a> the government plans to deploy to reduce the task. Of course it also means Australia is far less likely to make the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/publications/emissions-projections-2018">much sharper emissions reductions</a> needed by all nations to stabilise the global climate. </p>
<p>What can be done about this? The most obvious first step is to implement mandatory fuel efficiency or vehicle emission standards. This policy, fundamental in other countries, would significantly <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-could-have-saved-over-1-billion-in-fuel-if-car-emissions-standards-were-introduced-3-years-ago-117190">lower weekly fuel costs</a> for vehicle owners.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296605/original/file-20191011-188797-103p1vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296605/original/file-20191011-188797-103p1vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296605/original/file-20191011-188797-103p1vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296605/original/file-20191011-188797-103p1vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=441&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296605/original/file-20191011-188797-103p1vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296605/original/file-20191011-188797-103p1vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296605/original/file-20191011-188797-103p1vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=554&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The federal government must adjust policy settings to encourage the uptake of electric vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/clean-green-machines-the-truth-about-electric-vehicle-emissions-122619">Clean, green machines: the truth about electric vehicle emissions</a>
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</em>
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<hr>
<p>Second, a rapid shift to electric cars will help, and increasingly so as the electricity supply <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-battery-powered-vehicles-stack-up-better-than-hydrogen-106844">transitions to renewables</a>. Deep emission cuts are then <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_6959d3a0b5d647bb9715126de67fa197.pdf">possible</a>.</p>
<p>The third is to provide better information about actual emissions. This could be achieved by restoring the large testing programs conducted in Australia up to 2008, involving hundreds of Australian vehicles over different real-world Australian test cycles which generated <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_e27faf5fcaaa4d8ba11c6aefc2d61774.pdf">large databases</a> of raw measurements.</p>
<p>For the moment, Australia’s national greenhouse gas emissions strategy seems to be: do nothing, rely on the work of industry, state governments and other nations, and hope that nobody notices. But climate change is not going away. Dodging it now will only increase the costs we accumulate in the long run.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122378/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin is a former Member of the Climate Change Authority, and has campaigned for action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Smit is the founder of Transport Energy/Emission Research.</span></em></p>Surprise findings have revealed that Australia’s cars are getting less fuel efficient. This is bad news for the hip-pockets of motorists - and for the climate.John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of QueenslandRobin Smit, Adjunct professor, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1208962019-07-31T20:04:25Z2019-07-31T20:04:25ZNew Zealand poised to introduce clean car standards and incentives to cut emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286160/original/file-20190730-43140-18oonut.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C37%2C2485%2C1624&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia and Russia could soon be the last remaining developed nations without fuel efficiency standards, with New Zealand proposing new rules and financial incentives to get more people driving cleaner cars.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New Zealand <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/govt-proposing-make-clean-cars-cheaper-tackle-climate-change">government has proposed</a> new fuel standards to cut greenhouse emissions, along with <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/393928/government-s-clean-car-discount-fees-for-high-emission-vehicles-would-offset-efficiency-subsidy">consumer rebates</a> for cleaner cars – paid for by fees on high-polluting cars.</p>
<p>The long-awaited proposed changes would bring New Zealand in line with most other developed countries; apart from New Zealand, Russia and Australia are the last remaining <a href="https://www.oecd.org/about/members-and-partners/">OECD</a> nations without fuel efficiency standards. </p>
<p>New Zealand’s long tradition of not regulating its car market, combined with <a href="https://www.pce.parliament.nz/media/1725/emissions-in-the-energy-sector-technical-working-papercompressed.pdf">substantial indirect subsidies</a> for private cars, makes addressing emissions from the transport sector both challenging and highly significant.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/four-ways-our-cities-can-cut-transport-emissions-in-a-hurry-avoid-shift-share-and-improve-106076">Four ways our cities can cut transport emissions in a hurry: avoid, shift, share and improve</a>
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<h2>New Zealand’s second-rate car fleet</h2>
<p>Land transport emissions – the single largest source of fossil carbon dioxide in New Zealand – grew <a href="https://emissionstracker.mfe.govt.nz">93%</a> between 1990 and 2017. There are multiple causes. The population <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/population-of-nz">grew 44%</a> during this period, mostly through <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/international-migration-may-2019">immigration</a>. The car ownership rate also grew <a href="https://www.mia.org.nz/Sales-Data/Vehicle-Sales">rapidly</a>, partly due to economic growth and deficiencies in public transport in the main cities. Car ownership in New Zealand is now the highest in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita">OECD</a> and there are <a href="https://www.mia.org.nz/Sales-Data/Vehicle-Sales">more motor vehicles than adults</a>. </p>
<iframe title="New Zealand transport emissions" aria-label="Interactive line chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/6xvuo/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Fuel efficiency improved only slowly over this period, before stalling in recent years: at 180g CO₂/km, the emissions of newly imported vehicles in New Zealand are 50% higher than in Europe. Because of the lack of a fuel efficiency standard, importers provide <a href="https://transport.govt.nz/multi-modal/climatechange/electric-vehicles/clean-cars/">less efficient versions</a> of their bestsellers to the New Zealand market. Of the <a href="http://ebooks.edocumentonline.com/autotalk/autotalk_july19.pdf">ten bestselling new vehicles</a>, five are utes (which also benefit from a <a href="https://www.ird.govt.nz/-/media/Project/IR/PDF/IR409.pdf">fringe benefit tax exemption</a>, four are SUVs and one is a regular car. </p>
<p>In addition, half of all vehicles are imported secondhand, mostly from Japan. They are cheap, but less efficient than newer models. Emissions, and congestion, are likely to continue rising as the national vehicle fleet is increasing by <a href="http://www.ehinz.ac.nz/indicators/transport/motor-vehicles-2/">110,000 vehicles a year</a>.</p>
<p>One bright spot in the present situation is the emergence of an electric vehicle segment, mostly driven by the availability of cheap second-hand Nissan Leafs from Japan and the construction of a <a href="https://charge.net.nz/map/">fast-charging network by a private company</a>. Although sales have stalled in the past year at a market share of 2%, there are now <a href="https://www.transport.govt.nz/mot-resources/vehicle-fleet-statistics/monthly-electric-and-hybrid-light-vehicle-registrations/">15,000 electric vehicles in New Zealand</a>. (Australia has around 10,000 electric vehicles.) </p>
<h2>New Zealand’s history of fuel taxes</h2>
<p>New Zealand does not have a strong record of taxing “bads”. The only goods subject to excise taxes are tobacco, alcohol and fuel. The fuel tax is <a href="https://taxfoundation.org/oecd-gas-tax/">moderate by international standards</a>. Over the past decade, the fuel tax has been fully allocated to road construction and maintenance. </p>
<p>New Zealand has an <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/ets">emissions trading scheme</a>. The current carbon price of NZ$25/tonne of carbon dioxide adds five cents per litre to the price of fuel. Clearly, any likely increases in the carbon price are not going to be enough to change car buying decisions. <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/2018_03_Vehicle_taxation_GBE_report.pdf">Research shows</a> that consumers tend to focus on upfront costs, while underestimating future fuel and maintenance costs.</p>
<p>Despite that, a special Auckland fuel tax of 10 cents per litre that co-funds public transport investment provoked a brief but intense backlash from the public. Plans to extend the scheme to other centres were <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/108069680/no-regional-fuel-tax-for-wellington-as-minister-categorically-rules-it-out">canned</a>.</p>
<h2>A two-pronged plan</h2>
<p>The proposed fuel efficiency standard would require car importers to either meet it or pay a fine. The suggested standard is 150gCO₂/km in 2021, falling to 105gCO₂/km in 2025, with further falls thereafter. There are more than 3000 car importers in New Zealand, so this could prompt a major shakeup, including possible price adjustments. </p>
<p>The standards are similar to those proposed by the Australian Coalition government in 2016, which have not yet been taken any further. Internationally, fuel efficiency standards cover 80% of the light vehicle market. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-could-have-saved-over-1-billion-in-fuel-if-car-emissions-standards-were-introduced-3-years-ago-117190">Australians could have saved over $1 billion in fuel if car emissions standards were introduced 3 years ago</a>
</strong>
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</p>
<hr>
<p>But the second component of the proposal, the <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/393928/government-s-clean-car-discount-fees-for-high-emission-vehicles-would-offset-efficiency-subsidy">clean car discount</a>, has attracted more attention. Cars emitting less than the current threshold would received a discount, initially up to NZ$1800 for an efficient petrol car, up to NZ$4800 for a hybrid and up to NZ$8000 for a battery electric car. Cars costing more than NZ$80,000 would not receive a discount. </p>
<p>Known as a “feebate scheme”, those rebates would be paid for by increased fees for high-polluting cars, of up to NZ$3000. The amounts are designed so that the entire scheme would be <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/govt-proposing-make-clean-cars-cheaper-tackle-climate-change">revenue neutral</a> to the government. Modelling <a href="https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/govt-proposing-make-clean-cars-cheaper-tackle-climate-change">suggests</a> that the proposed standard and discount combined would save motorists NZ$12,000 over the life of a vehicle. </p>
<h2>International clean car schemes and testing</h2>
<p>There is <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EU_vehicle_taxation_Report_20181214_0.pdf">international experience with similar schemes</a>, and they have been broadly effective. France has been operating a <a href="https://theicct.org/blog/staff/practical-lessons-vehicle-efficiency-policy-10-year-evolution-frances-co2-based-bonus">“feebate” scheme since 2008</a> with periodic adjustments. New Zealand’s proposed scheme is similar to the French and <a href="https://theicct.org/blog/staff/swedens-feebate-system-20181008">Swedish schemes</a>. </p>
<p>But there is also room to <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_feebates_may2010.pdf">get it wrong</a>. Tinkering with electric vehicle incentives has led to wild <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country">sales fluctuations</a> in the Netherlands and Denmark. </p>
<p>The spread between <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Lab-to-road-intl_ICCT-white-paper_06112017_vF.pdf">tested and real-world fuel use has widened</a>, up from 9% in 2001 to 42%. The new <a href="https://wltpfacts.eu/what-is-wltp-how-will-it-work">Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure</a> testing cycle, currently being adopted by Japanese and European manufacturers, is believed to be more representative of real-world fuel use, as is the <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Lab-to-road-intl_ICCT-white-paper_06112017_vF.pdf">test</a> already in use in the United States.</p>
<p>But overall, the New Zealand proposal has been received positively by car makers and across political parties. </p>
<p>One possible weakness is that it is entirely based on carbon dioxide. Other pollutants, including nitrous and sulphur oxides and particulate matter (soot), that are responsible for most of the immediate health impacts of vehicle pollution and are worse in diesel than in petrol vehicles, are not targeted. Nor are the underlying subsidies to the car-based transport system, which make a transition to active and public transport more difficult. </p>
<p>Any decisions made now will have impacts for decades to come. Switching the fleet to electric is different from just switching to more fuel-efficient cars. It involves new charging infrastructure and some behavioural changes from the public, and these challenges (rather than simply cost) are stumbling blocks worldwide to more rapid adoption.</p>
<p>These arguments have persuaded many countries to bring in electric vehicle incentives beyond simply targeting carbon dioxide. Norway is a famous example, where electric vehicles <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0095069617301249">avoid</a> <a href="https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/">purchase taxes</a> and market share is already <a href="http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/07/norway-june-2019.html">60%</a>. The UK has recently <a href="https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/fleet-faq/what-are-the-current-bik-bands-/3/">exempted</a> electric company cars from fringe benefit tax. </p>
<p>As the global market share of electric vehicles still stands at only 2%, eight years after they became widely available, and the number of fossil-fueled vehicles is increasing by <a href="https://tedb.ornl.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Edition37_Full_Doc.pdf#page=80">48 million a year</a>, stronger action on vehicle emissions is clearly needed worldwide.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/120896/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New Zealand has proposed new fuel standards, along with a consumer rebates for cleaner cars – paid for by higher costs for high-polluting cars – to cut its rising transport emissions.Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1171902019-05-29T19:46:17Z2019-05-29T19:46:17ZAustralians could have saved over $1 billion in fuel if car emissions standards were introduced 3 years ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274797/original/file-20190516-69204-135e2br.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C2941%2C2088&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Legislative action regarding vehicle emissions is overdue, and needs urgent attention by the federal government.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When it comes to road transport, Australia is at risk of becoming a climate villain as we lag behind international best practice on fuel efficiency.</p>
<p>Road transport is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions and <a href="http://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/">represented</a> 16% of Australia’s total carbon dioxide emissions in 2000, growing to 21% in 2016. Total CO₂ emissions from road transport increased by almost 30% in the period 2000-16.</p>
<p>Fuel efficiency (CO₂ emission) standards have been adopted in around <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/vehicles/environment/forum/files/Vehicle_Fuel_Efficiency_RIS.pdf">80% of the global light vehicle market</a> to cap the growth of transport emissions. This includes the United States, the European Union, Canada, Japan, China, South Korea and India – but not Australia. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/emissions-standards-on-cars-will-save-australians-billions-of-dollars-and-help-meet-our-climate-targets-74623">Emissions standards on cars will save Australians billions of dollars, and help meet our climate targets</a>
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<p>If Australia had introduced internationally harmonised emissions legislation three years ago, households could have made savings on fuel costs to the tune of A$1 billion.</p>
<p>This shocking figure comes from our preliminary calculations looking at the effect of requiring more efficient vehicles to be sold in Australia.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/publications">report</a>, published yesterday by Transport Energy/Emission Research, looked at what Australia has achieved in vehicle fuel efficiency and CO₂ standards over the past 20 years. While Australia has considered and tried to impose standards a number of times, sadly these attempts were unsuccessful.</p>
<p>Legislative action on vehicle CO₂ emissions is long overdue and demands urgent attention by the Australian government.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274854/original/file-20190516-69189-gqprq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274854/original/file-20190516-69189-gqprq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274854/original/file-20190516-69189-gqprq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274854/original/file-20190516-69189-gqprq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274854/original/file-20190516-69189-gqprq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274854/original/file-20190516-69189-gqprq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274854/original/file-20190516-69189-gqprq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274854/original/file-20190516-69189-gqprq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australian consumers are increasingly buying heavier vehicles with bigger emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shuterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How did Australia get here?</h2>
<p>The most efficient versions of vehicle models offered in Australia are <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/vehicles/environment/forum/files/Vehicle_Fuel_Efficiency_RIS.pdf">considerably less efficient</a> than similar vehicles in other markets. </p>
<p>Australia could increasingly become a dumping ground for the world’s least efficient vehicles with sub-par emissions performance, given our lack of fuel efficiency standards. This leaves us on a dangerous path towards not only higher vehicle emissions, but also higher fuel costs for passenger travel and freight.</p>
<p>Australia has attempted to impose CO₂ or fuel efficiency standards on light vehicles several times over the past 20 years, but without success. While the federal government was committed to addressing this issue in <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/vehicles/environment/forum/index.aspx">2015</a>, four years later we are still yet to hear when – or even if – mandatory fuel efficiency standards will ever be introduced. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://ris.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/posts/2017/02/efficiency_standards_for_new_light_vehicles_ris_for_consultation.pdf">general expectation</a> appears to be that average CO₂ emission rates of new cars in Australia will reduce over time as technology advances overseas. In the absence of CO₂ standards locally, it is more likely that consumers will continue to not be offered more efficient cars, and pay higher fuel costs as a consequence.</p>
<h2>Estimating the fuel savings</h2>
<p>Available evidence suggests Australian motorists are paying on average almost <a href="http://www.climatechangeauthority.gov.au/files/files/Light%20Vehicle%20Report/Lightvehiclesreport.pdf">30% more for fuel than they should</a> because of the lack of fuel efficiency standards. </p>
<p>The Australian vehicle fleet uses about <a href="http://www.npi.gov.au/resource/australian-motor-vehicle-emission-inventory-national-pollutant-inventory-npi">32 billion litres</a> of fuel per year. </p>
<p>Using an Australian <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/publications">fleet model</a> described in the TER report, we can make a conservative estimate that the passenger vehicle fleet uses about half of this fuel: 16 billion litres per year. New cars entering the fleet each year would represent about 5% of this: 800 million litres per year.</p>
<p>So <a href="https://www.transport-e-research.com/">assuming</a> that mandatory CO₂ standards improve fuel efficiency <a href="http://ris.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/posts/2017/02/efficiency_standards_for_new_light_vehicles_ris_for_consultation.pdf">by 27%</a>, fuel savings would be 216 million litres per year. </p>
<p>In the last three years, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/petrol-prices-hit-10-year-high-putting-squeeze-on-families-20181022-p50b6z.html">the average fuel price</a> across Australia’s five major cities is A$1.33 per litre. This equates to a total savings of A$287 million per year, although this would be about half the first year as new cars are purchased throughout the year and travel less, and would reduce as vehicles travel less when they age.</p>
<p>The savings are accumulative because a car purchased in a particular year continues to save fuel over the following years. </p>
<p>The table below shows a rough calculation of savings over the three year period (2016-2018), for new cars sold in the same period (Model Years 2016, 2017 and 2018).</p>
<p>As a result, over a period of three years, A$1.3 billion in potential savings for car owners would have accumulated. </p>
<h2>Policy has come close, but what are we waiting for?</h2>
<p>The Australian government is not progressing any measures to introduce a fuel efficiency target. In fact, it recently labelled Labor’s proposed fuel efficiency standard as a “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-s-vehicle-carbon-target-would-save-motorists-27-5-billion-20190410-p51coz.html">car tax</a>”.</p>
<p>But Australia has come close to adopting mandatory vehicle CO₂ emission standards in the past. </p>
<p>In late 2007, the Labor government committed to cutting emissions to achieve Australia’s obligations under the Kyoto Protocol. The then prime minister, Kevin Rudd, <a href="https://thepep.unece.org/sites/default/files/2017-06/Vehicle.Fuel_.Efficiency.pdf">instructed</a> the Vehicle Efficiency Working Group to: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… develop jointly a package of vehicle fuel efficiency measures designed to move Australia towards international best practice.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Then, in 2010, the Labor government decided mandatory CO₂ emissions standards would apply to new light vehicles from 2015. But a change in government in 2013 meant these standards did not see the light of day.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274827/original/file-20190516-69182-adqcks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274827/original/file-20190516-69182-adqcks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/274827/original/file-20190516-69182-adqcks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274827/original/file-20190516-69182-adqcks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274827/original/file-20190516-69182-adqcks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274827/original/file-20190516-69182-adqcks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274827/original/file-20190516-69182-adqcks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/274827/original/file-20190516-69182-adqcks.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The amount of fuel that could have been saved is A$287 million per year.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Things looked promising again when the Coalition government released a <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/protection/fuel-quality/better-fuel-cleaner-air-discussion-paper-2016.">Vehicle Emissions Discussion Paper</a> in 2016, followed by a draft <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/vehicles/environment/forum/files/Vehicle_Fuel_Efficiency_RIS.pdf">Regulation Impact Statement</a> in the same year.</p>
<p>The targets for adopting this policy in 2025, considered in the draft statement, were marked as “strong” (105g of CO₂ per km), “medium” (119g/km) and “mild” (135g/km) standards. </p>
<p>Under all three targets, there would be significant net cost savings. But since 2016, the federal government has taken no further action. </p>
<p>It begs the question: what exactly are we waiting for?</p>
<h2>The technical state of play</h2>
<p>Transport Energy/Emission Research conducted <a href="https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/d0bd25_0e5b82c440c7482a8e0d645f2d931f57.pdf">preliminary modelling</a> of Australian real-world CO₂ emissions. </p>
<p>This research suggests average CO₂ emission rates of the on-road car fleet in Australia are actually increasing over time and are, in reality, higher than what is officially reported in laboratory emissions tests.</p>
<p>In fact, the gap between mean real-world emissions and the official laboratory tests is expected to grow from 20% in 2010 to 65% in 2025. </p>
<p>This gap is particularly concerning when we look at the lack of support for low-emissions vehicles like electric cars.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-battery-powered-vehicles-stack-up-better-than-hydrogen-106844">Why battery-powered vehicles stack up better than hydrogen</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>Given that fleet turnover is slow, the benefits of fuel efficiency standards would only begin to have a significant effect several years into the future.</p>
<p>With continuing population growth, road travel will only increase further. This will put even more pressure on the need to reduce average real-world CO₂ emission rates, given the increasing <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/transport-fact-sheet/">environmental</a> and <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2005/files/wp_063.pdf">health</a> impacts of the vehicle fleet.</p>
<p>Even if the need to reduce emissions doesn’t convince you, the cost benefits of emissions standards should. The sale of less efficient vehicles in Australia means higher weekly fuel costs for car owners, which could be avoided with the introduction of internationally harmonised emissions legislation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117190/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Smit is an Adjunct Professor at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) and a Senior Honorary Fellow at the University of Queensland (UQ) and this article was prepared under these university affiliations. Robin is also Chair of the Transport Special Interest Group at the Clean Air Society of Australia and New Zealand (CASANZ), Science Leader at the Queensland Department of Environment and Science and the Founder of TER.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Jake Whitehead is a Research Fellow at The University of Queensland and Director of Transmobility Consulting.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nic Surawski has worked on projects funded by city councils, alternative engine design companies, the Australian Coal Association Research Program, the federal Department of Environment and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. Nic is a member of the Clean Air Society of Australia and New Zealand.</span></em></p>This shocking figure comes from our back-of-the-envelope calculations looking at the effect of forcing more efficient engines on the Australian market.Robin Smit, Adjunct professor, The University of QueenslandJake Whitehead, Research Fellow, The University of QueenslandNic Surawski, Lecturer in Environmental Engineering, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.