tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/future-of-higher-ed-24148/articlesfuture of higher ed – The Conversation2019-08-21T12:24:53Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1221082019-08-21T12:24:53Z2019-08-21T12:24:53ZCollege rankings might as well be student rankings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288759/original/file-20190820-170931-10c1x47.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">College rankings often take student caliber into account, an analysis shows.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/side-view-students-writing-notes-row-700894795?src=ZX2jxFfTAeSYcqQ3ge77hg-2-70">vectorfusionart/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Each year various magazines and newspapers publish college rankings in an attempt to inform parents and prospective students which colleges are supposedly the best.</p>
<p>U.S. News & World Report’s <a href="https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges">“Best Colleges”</a> – perhaps the most influential of these rankings – first appeared in 1983. Since then, many other rankings have emerged, assessing colleges and universities on cost, the salaries of graduates and other factors.</p>
<p>For example, in releasing its <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2019/08/15/forbes-releases-annual-ranking-of-americas-top-colleges/#62b1432924f2">new college rankings</a> in August 2019, Forbes said it “eschews common metrics like acceptance rate, endowment and freshmen SAT scores” and focuses instead on outputs like “student debt, alumni salary, graduation rate and student satisfaction.”</p>
<p>In 2018 The Wall Street Journal and Times Higher Education released their <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/explore-the-full-wsj-the-college-rankings-1536187754">new rankings</a>, which judge colleges on things that range from how much graduates earn to the campus environment to how much students engaged with instructors.</p>
<p>But what, if anything, do all these college rankings really reveal about the quality and value of a particular college?</p>
<p>In order to provide a new perspective on rankings, my colleagues <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-brown-93909935">Matt I. Brown</a>, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=2UQAbkEAAAAJ&hl=en">Christopher F. Chabris</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7AA4QGEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I</a> decided to rank colleges according to the SAT or ACT scores of the students they admit. All three of us are researchers with backgrounds in <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7AA4QGEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">education and psychology</a>.</p>
<p>For <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/6/3/37">our analysis</a>, we simply ranked all 1,339 schools by a standardized test score metric.</p>
<h2>Hierarchy of smarts</h2>
<p>We <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/6/3/37">discovered</a> that schools higher up on the rankings generally admit students with higher SAT or ACT scores. In other words, what the rankings largely show is the caliber of the students that a given college admits – that is, <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0963721410389459">if you accept the SAT as a valid measure</a> of a <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.0956-7976.2004.00687.x">student’s caliber</a>. Though there is often <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2013/09/26/why-the-new-sat-scores-are-meaningless/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1396c6530dd1">public controversy</a> over the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-truth-about-the-sat-and-act-1520521861">value of standardized tests</a>, research shows that these tests are quite robust <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/8922929_Academic_Performance_Career_Potential_Creativity_and_Job_Performance_Can_One_Construct_Predict_Them_All">measures to predict</a> academic performance, career potential, creativity and job performance.</p>
<p>Critics of the SAT say it tests for students’ wealth, not caliber. While it is true that wealthier parents tend to have students with higher test scores, it turns out the research robustly shows that test scores, <a href="https://my.vanderbilt.edu/smpy/files/2013/02/Lubinski2009CognitiveEpidemiology.pdf">even when you consider socioeconomic status</a>, are <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4433862/">predictive of later outcomes</a>.</p>
<p>Our ranking also disproves the notion that the No. 1 school in the land is slightly better than the No. 2 school – and so on down the list. Rather it shows that the vast majority of schools admit students who earn a score between 900 and 1300 on the SAT – that is, on the combined scores on the SAT <a href="https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/sat/inside-the-test/math">Math</a> and <a href="https://blog.prepscholar.com/what-is-sat-verbal">Verbal</a>. Greater variations in test scores appear in schools that admit students at the low and high end of the distribution – those students who earn below a 900 or above a 1300 on their SATs.</p>
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<p>In particular, most of the variation occurs between “highly selective” and “elite” schools, between the scores of 1300 and 1600 in the illustration. Thus, test score rankings can mean different things depending upon which group of schools students and parents are considering. For example, if you are deciding whether to attend two different schools that fall into the vast middle range of scores where there is much more overlap, the ranking differences likely will not tell you very much.</p>
<p>To our knowledge, <a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/6/3/37">our graph</a> represents the first illustration of how colleges and universities stack up against one another in terms of the SAT or ACT test scores of the students that end up on their campuses. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235452/original/file-20180907-90553-skjk5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235452/original/file-20180907-90553-skjk5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/235452/original/file-20180907-90553-skjk5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235452/original/file-20180907-90553-skjk5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235452/original/file-20180907-90553-skjk5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235452/original/file-20180907-90553-skjk5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235452/original/file-20180907-90553-skjk5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/235452/original/file-20180907-90553-skjk5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Some college rankings factor in SAT or ACT scores, but many do not.</span>
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<p>For instance, <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/wall-street-journal-times-higher-education-college-rankings-2019-methodology?mod=article_inline">The Wall Street Journal-Times Higher Education rankings methodology</a> does not include the SAT/ACT scores of students. The U.S. News rankings include SAT/ACT scores as part of their <a href="https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/articles/how-us-news-calculated-the-rankings">student selectivity</a> portion, but these scores are weighted only about 8% in the total formula.</p>
<h2>Different rankings, similar results</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/6/3/37/htm">Our study</a> also assessed the correlation — or how statistically similar — our test score rankings were compared to the U.S. News rankings themselves, as well as other rankings that are meant to assess entirely different dimensions of colleges and universities. </p>
<p>A correlation of 1 indicates a perfect relationship between two variables whereas a correlation of 0 indicates no relationship between two variables. We found across our analyses that test score rankings correlated between 0.659 to 0.890 with other rankings. This suggests the schools that end up at the top of the test score rankings also will end up at the top of these other rankings.</p>
<p>We first found high correlations between our test score rankings and <a href="https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges">U.S. News national university rank</a> – 0.892 – and liberal arts college rank – 0.890 – even though U.S. News weights these scores only about 8% in their formula. <a href="https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings">Times Higher Education’s</a> U.S. school ranking was correlated 0.787 with SAT and ACT scores and Times Higher Education’s full international school ranking was correlated 0.659. This suggests that the SAT/ACT rankings could function as a common factor that connects all rankings.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">‘Do Standardized Tests Matter?’ by Nathan Kuncel.</span></figcaption>
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<p>But what about other types of rankings that were formulated in very different ways for different purposes?</p>
<p>When we examined the correlation between our test score ranking and <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w10803">a “revealed preference ranking,”</a> which was based on the colleges students prefer when they can choose among them, we found these rankings to be highly related at 0.757.</p>
<p>When we compared the test score rankings to a novel set of rankings created by <a href="https://www.lumosity.com/">Lumosity</a>, the creator of “brain games” meant to boost cognitive functioning, we found that ranking to be highly related to SAT/ACT scores as well – at 0.794.</p>
<p>Finally, we <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/exclusive-test-data-many-colleges-fail-to-improve-critical-thinking-skills-1496686662">examined a “critical thinking” measure</a> – <a href="https://cae.org/flagship-assessments-cla-cwra/cla/">the CLA+</a> – intended to assess critical thinking among freshman college students. We again found this to be highly related to the test score rankings – at 0.846. </p>
<h2>A question of usefulness</h2>
<p>The similarities in rankings raises the important issue of what all these rankings actually measure. Do they really measure the value that a college adds to a student’s life? Or are they largely a function of student test scores, which reflects student characteristics and educational development, among other aspects, such as <a href="http://www.iapsych.com/iqmr/koening2008.pdf">reasoning abilities</a>. </p>
<p>Considering the correlation between SAT scores and college rankings, is it fair for a school to say a parent is getting a good “return on investment” for the tuition they pay? Since student characteristics – as indicated by test scores – are so highly correlated with the rankings, we argue that student characteristics should be considered as inputs when evaluating any outputs of a school. This is because schools that admit students who score well on the SAT or ACT will also have successful graduates based on the research that shows standardized tests alone <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/8922929_Academic_Performance_Career_Potential_Creativity_and_Job_Performance_Can_One_Construct_Predict_Them_All">predict many long-term outcomes</a>. </p>
<p>Schools may want to take as much credit as they can for the education and opportunities they give students. But if a school enrolls the top students to begin with, it’s hardly surprising that such a school would end up on top in terms of other outcomes. A college’s success may be less about the quality of its instruction and more about the <a href="https://qz.com/498534/these-25-schools-are-responsible-for-the-greatest-advances-in-science/">talent it can recruit</a>.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-college-rankings-really-measure-hint-its-not-quality-or-value-102163">article</a> originally published on Sept. 12, 2018</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Wai does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>College rankings are set up to make you believe one college is better than another. But a closer look reveals college rankings may be measuring something entirely different.Jonathan Wai, Assistant Professor of Education Policy and Psychology and Endowed Chair, University of ArkansasLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/893542018-01-09T11:15:01Z2018-01-09T11:15:01ZUniversities must prepare for a technology-enabled future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201238/original/file-20180108-83567-ks4agd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A professor teaches an online class with students from around the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Harvard-Online-Classroom/9f026ca56cfc4deb98fbcab08efa92d5/11/0">AP Photo/Gretchen Ertl</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Automation and artificial intelligence technologies are <a href="https://theconversation.com/introducing-operator-4-0-a-tech-augmented-human-worker-74117">transforming manufacturing</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-industrial-revolution-really-tells-us-about-the-future-of-automation-and-work-82051">corporate work</a> and the <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/">retail business</a>, providing new opportunities for companies to explore and posing major threats to those that don’t adapt to the times. Equally daunting challenges confront colleges and universities, but they’ve been slower to acknowledge them.</p>
<p>At present, colleges and universities are most worried about competition from schools or training systems using <a href="https://campustechnology.com/articles/2017/03/01/technology-and-the-future-of-online-learning.aspx">online learning technology</a>. But that is just one aspect of the technological changes already under way. For example, some companies are moving toward requiring workers have <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/impatient-with-colleges-employers-design-their-own-courses/">specific skills trainings and certifications</a> – as opposed to college degrees. </p>
<p>As a professor who researches artificial intelligence and offers distance learning courses, I can say that online education is a disruptive challenge for which colleges are ill-prepared. Lack of student demand is already closing <a href="http://indiatoday.intoday.in/education/story/800-engineering-colleges-to-shut-down-aicte/1/1040312.html">800 out of roughly 10,000 engineering colleges</a> in India. And online learning has put as many as half the colleges and universities in the U.S. at risk of <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-learning/article/2017/04/28/clay-christensen-sticks-predictions-massive-college-closures">shutting down in the next couple decades</a> as remote students get comparable educations over the internet – without living on campus or taking classes in person. Unless universities move quickly to transform themselves into educational institutions for a technology-assisted future, they risk becoming obsolete.</p>
<h2>Existing alternatives to traditional higher ed</h2>
<p>Enormous amounts of information are now available online for free, ready for watching, listening or reading at any time, by anyone who’s connected. For more than a decade, private companies, nonprofits and universities alike have been experimenting with online courses, often offered for free or at low cost to <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-online-courses-can-bring-the-world-into-africas-classrooms-63773">large numbers of students around the world</a>. Research has shown that it’s as effective for students to use a <a href="https://digitalcommons.wku.edu/ijesab/vol9/iss2/19/">combination of online courses and traditional in-classroom</a> instruction as it is to <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/276119100_Innovative_blended_delivery_and_learning_Exploring_student_choice_experience_and_level_of_satisfaction_in_a_hyflex_course">just have classes in person</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200752/original/file-20180103-26163-1brho2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200752/original/file-20180103-26163-1brho2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200752/original/file-20180103-26163-1brho2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200752/original/file-20180103-26163-1brho2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200752/original/file-20180103-26163-1brho2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200752/original/file-20180103-26163-1brho2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200752/original/file-20180103-26163-1brho2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/200752/original/file-20180103-26163-1brho2u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Is this the future of a college education?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/student-learning-on-line-headphones-laptop-549162715">PR Image Factory/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://www.class-central.com/report/mooc-providers-list/">Providers of massive open</a> online courses (often called “<a href="http://mooc.org/">MOOCs</a>”) are refining ways for people who complete the classes to present their accomplishments in ways employers can understand easily. For example, students in certain classes from major MOOC provider <a href="https://www.edx.org/">edX</a> can get an <a href="https://www.edx.org/gfa">official Arizona State University transcript</a> listing their courses and grades. An employer would never know the person studied online. (There’s another threat to universities’ business model, too: Students can take the classes and get their grades for free; they only need to <a href="https://www.edx.org/gfa">pay if they are happy with their grades</a>, and if they want official college credit.)</p>
<p>This is a period of rapid change unlike what universities have dealt with for centuries.</p>
<h2>The evolution of the university</h2>
<p>Medieval European universities trained would-be clergy members in canonical law, theological discussion and <a href="http://doi.org/10.3386/w17979">religious administration</a>. These institutions amassed huge repositories of knowledge, storing and indexing them in libraries, which became the focal point of the campus.</p>
<p>As European countries explored the world and established overseas colonies <a href="http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=66617">starting in the 15th and 16th centuries</a>, universities evolved to train officers to manage those territories, study navigation across the oceans and look after colonists’ health. <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-industrial-revolution-really-tells-us-about-the-future-of-automation-and-work-82051">After the Industrial Revolution</a>, colleges changed again, teaching workers how to use new scientific and technological methods and tools. </p>
<p>In the 21st century, the workplace is transforming once more; what businesses, governments and society need from education is shifting, and technology has made the brick-and-mortar library obsolete. It used to be that users of a technology needed to know how it works. In the early days of driving, for instance, it was important for a driver to be able to fix a car that broke down on the side of the road, perhaps far from any expert mechanic. </p>
<p>But in the current <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/post-industrial-society-3026457">post-industrial economy</a>, that has changed: Even a car mechanic uses a computer to connect to car systems to <a href="https://www.solopcms.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Solo-PCMS-automotive-computer-mechanic-768x512.jpg">identify what is not working properly</a>. Very few people need to know how these internal computer systems work; they just need to be able to interpret <a href="https://qz.com/1054261/the-connected-car-of-the-future-could-kill-off-the-local-auto-repair-shop/">sensor readings and error messages</a>. </p>
<h2>A changing job market</h2>
<p>Now, the number of jobs mostly involving routine skills – both physical and cognitive – is <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/january/jobs-involving-routine-tasks-arent-growing">shrinking over time</a>.
Increasing automation at factories is rapidly replacing workers at factories, <a href="https://www.zmescience.com/other/economics/china-factory-robots-03022017/">even in low-wage countries like China</a>. Artificial intelligence technologies like machine learning and computer vision are permanently <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/26/technology-is-killing-jobs-and-only-technology-can-save-them/">eliminating high-skill jobs</a> in offices, too. Many world economies – including in the U.S. – are turning from manufacturing to service, in which most new jobs do not require advanced education. </p>
<p>The remaining jobs <a href="https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/may/growing-skill-divide-us-labor-market">will involve fewer routine tasks</a>. The people doing that work will still need some education beyond high school. But they may not have as much need to attend classes at, or even live on, a physical university campus. Colleges that are outside the very top tier of quality and name recognition – and those that have taken on large amounts of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2016/07/the-paradox-of-new-buildings-on-campus/492398/">debt to build physical facilities</a> – will suffer as demand for their services lessens.</p>
<h2>Competition between colleges</h2>
<p>Another factor challenging universities’ existence is the <a href="https://trends.collegeboard.org/college-pricing/figures-tables/average-published-undergraduate-charges-sector-2017-18">rapidly rising cost</a> of a traditional college education. So far, in the U.S. demand for degrees from residential colleges has remained high because government-backed <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-for-profit-college-trap_us_5814edb7e4b09b190529c588">loans are easy to get</a>. But student loan debt in the <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htm/">U.S. has reached US$1.45 trillion</a> – and as many as <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2017Q3.pdf">20 percent of borrowers</a> may not be earning enough to pay them back.</p>
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<p>Universities might highlight intangible values of in-person learning, like personal contact and nonverbal communication, but the costs are becoming a larger factor. Parents and students in the U.S. are increasingly asking whether it’s worth spending <a href="https://trends.collegeboard.org/college-pricing/figures-tables/tuition-fees-room-board-over-time">around $30,000</a> – or even <a href="https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance">more than $60,000</a> – for <a href="https://handbook.fas.harvard.edu/book/calendar-academic-year">less than 240 days of school</a> in an elite private residential college – more than $250 a night. </p>
<p>Private colleges’ main competition at the moment comes from public universities. Their <a href="https://trends.collegeboard.org/college-pricing/figures-tables/average-published-undergraduate-charges-sector-2017-18">prices are two-thirds lower</a>, but studying still involves taking many courses that are just as easily taught online.</p>
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<p>Soon students will want to take a variety of courses from different universities, choosing each class and school for its particular merits and benefits. That will stiffen competition between institutions, lowering students’ costs – and universities’ revenues. </p>
<p>Courses will become shared experiences for online learning communities. Some colleges might seek to charge students for special in-person learning experiences, but these will be extras for those who can afford them, not the higher education norm they are today.</p>
<h2>Finding a new way to teach</h2>
<p>Some universities – those at the top, with the most money and expertise – are responding to the coming changes to higher education. Some are forming partnerships with international universities and online teaching companies, or building remote-learning programs on their own. Some of these, like the <a href="https://www.extension.harvard.edu">Harvard Extension School</a>, are high-tech adaptations of correspondence courses people used to take by mail. </p>
<p>Harvard Extension School enrolls nearly <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2013/09/did-i-really-go-to-harvard-if-i-got-my-degree-taking-online-classes/279644/">2,000 degree candidates and over 13,000 non-degree students</a>, who <a href="https://www.extension.harvard.edu/registration-admissions">take classes online, on campus or a mix of both</a>. Students can earn a <a href="https://www.extension.harvard.edu/academics/undergraduate-degrees/bachelor-liberal-arts-degree">Bachelor of Liberal Arts degree in extension studies</a>. At an <a href="https://www.extension.harvard.edu/registration-admissions">estimated cost of $49,500</a>, a four-year degree is cheaper than a <a href="https://www.harvard.edu/about-harvard/harvard-glance">single year on campus</a> at Harvard.</p>
<p>But the vast majority of people who take its classes <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2013/09/did-i-really-go-to-harvard-if-i-got-my-degree-taking-online-classes/279644/">never get a degree</a> at all. They’re just looking for one particular course, or maybe a few, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2016/09/25/495188445/shaken-by-economic-change-non-traditional-students-are-becoming-the-new-normal">customizing their own education</a>. </p>
<p>Employers will soon take advantage of options like this, too: Universities will find themselves asked to build specific programs for particular companies. And universities will find themselves needing to explore other ways artificial intelligence technologies can help reduce the cost of education.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Subhash Kak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Artificial intelligence and automation are bringing changes to higher education that will challenge, and may even threaten, traditional universities.Subhash Kak, Regents Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Oklahoma State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/675132016-12-15T04:05:18Z2016-12-15T04:05:18ZThe high cost of pursuing a dream to be a veterinarian<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150164/original/image-20161214-2478-1clhliq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What does it cost to be a veterinarian?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The increasing cost of higher education and the resultant impact on student debt has <a href="https://theconversation.com/making-college-affordable-eight-essential-reads-66174">received wide attention</a>. Providing free tuition and reducing student debt were among the <a href="https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/college/">key proposals</a> of the presidential nominees. </p>
<p>However, what is often overlooked is the cost of postgraduate medical education – more specifically veterinary education. </p>
<p>Students aspiring to veterinary education are investing in the hope that it will return value through payment from clients. However, as the <a href="https://cvm.msu.edu/">associate dean</a> for academic programs and student success at Michigan State University’s College of Veterinary Medicine (MSU CVM), I am keenly aware of the impact of the cost of this education. From what I see, there is a crisis for those called to veterinary medicine. </p>
<p>One of the main problems is that the cost of a veterinary education is too high relative to future earnings.</p>
<h2>Who becomes a veterinarian?</h2>
<p>For many, veterinary medicine is a calling. It was the same for me. Growing up on a farm in a rural community, I saw how our family’s veterinarian not only protected the health of our animals, but also contributed to my family’s economic stability. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150184/original/image-20161214-4921-1kgt8qw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150184/original/image-20161214-4921-1kgt8qw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150184/original/image-20161214-4921-1kgt8qw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150184/original/image-20161214-4921-1kgt8qw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150184/original/image-20161214-4921-1kgt8qw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1135&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150184/original/image-20161214-4921-1kgt8qw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1135&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150184/original/image-20161214-4921-1kgt8qw.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1135&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Who becomes a veterinarian?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of MSU CVM</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Moreover, in my community, the veterinarian was also a trusted leader – held in higher regard than most other professionals, including physicians and lawyers. </p>
<p>By the time I was in grade school, I had decided to be a veterinarian. Like many before me, I felt proud when taking the <a href="https://www.avma.org/KB/Policies/Pages/veterinarians-oath.aspx">oath</a> which called me “… through the protection of animal health and welfare,” to promote public health and advance medical knowledge. </p>
<p>And I am not the only one for whom veterinary science has been a calling. A <a href="http://jvme.utpjournals.press.proxy1.cl.msu.edu/doi/10.3138/jvme.1114-113R">recent study</a> shows that more than half of veterinary students decide on their career path by the age of 10.</p>
<h2>High cost of education</h2>
<p>The unfortunate part, however, is that these highly motivated students end up owing a lot of money, and their earnings are not high enough to manage the debt.</p>
<p><a href="http://avmajournals.avma.org.proxy1.cl.msu.edu/doi/full/10.2460/javma.243.8.1122">A 2013 national survey</a> of DVM graduates found the average debt for students was as high as US$162,113. This is similar to the <a href="https://members.aamc.org/eweb/DynamicPage.aspx?Action=Add&ObjectKeyFrom=1A83491A-9853-4C87-86A4-F7D95601C2E2&WebCode=ProdDetailAdd&DoNotSave=yes&ParentObject=CentralizedOrderEntry&ParentDataObject=Invoice%20Detail&ivd_formkey=69202792-63d7-4ba2-bf4e-a0da41270555&ivd_prc_prd_key=D9B3A33A-B3B5-4F02-9A95-E19B7CECF07A">average educational debt</a> of $180,723 accrued by physicians in 2015. However, physicians have much higher lifetime earnings than veterinarians, making it easier for them to manage their debt.</p>
<p><</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150180/original/image-20161214-2496-1xgbc2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150180/original/image-20161214-2496-1xgbc2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150180/original/image-20161214-2496-1xgbc2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150180/original/image-20161214-2496-1xgbc2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150180/original/image-20161214-2496-1xgbc2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150180/original/image-20161214-2496-1xgbc2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150180/original/image-20161214-2496-1xgbc2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The earnings of veterinarians are not high enough, and the situation is worse for women.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of MSU CVM</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is true at the beginning of their careers, salaries for veterinarians and physicians are quite comparable: Veterinarians get, on average, a <a href="https://members.aamc.org/eweb/DynamicPage.aspx?Action=Add&ObjectKeyFrom=1A83491A-9853-4C87-86A4-F7D95601C2E2&WebCode=ProdDetailAdd&DoNotSave=yes&ParentObject=CentralizedOrderEntry&ParentDataObject=Invoice%20Detail&ivd_formkey=69202792-63d7-4ba2-bf4e-a0da41270555&ivd_prc_prd_key=D9B3A33A-B3B5-4F02-9A95-E19B7CECF07A">full-time starting salary</a> of $67,136 annually. Physicians, who pursue residencies for advanced specialty training under supervision, soon after graduation, earn an average first-year salary of $52,200. </p>
<p>However, this changes over the years. The lifelong earning potential of physicians improves significantly <a href="http://avmajournals.avma.org.proxy1.cl.msu.edu/doi/full/10.2460/javma.246.4.422">in comparison with veterinarians</a>. Over a period of time, the <a href="http://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/physicians-and-surgeons.htm">overall median salary</a> of a physician gets to $187,200, <a href="http://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/veterinarians.htm">whereas that of a</a> veterinarian remains at about $88,490.</p>
<p>The situation is worse for women. Female veterinarians, on average, <a href="http://avmajournals.avma.org.proxy1.cl.msu.edu/doi/full/10.2460/javma.246.4.422">will not even break even</a> on their educational investment until they are well past the age of 65 (or older). </p>
<h2>Impact on wellness</h2>
<p>Another crisis for the profession is wellness. Recent studies show that <a href="http://avmajournals.avma.org.proxy2.cl.msu.edu/doi/full/10.2460/javma.247.8.945">veterinarians</a> have high rates of psychological distress, depression and suicidal thoughts as compared to the population as a whole. </p>
<p><a href="http://jvme.utpjournals.press.proxy1.cl.msu.edu/doi/abs/10.3138/jvme.0712-065R">One study</a> found that a majority of veterinary students were clinically depressed. Although financial concerns were not the only worry, they were a component of the stress veterinarians were facing. </p>
<h2>Market bubble?</h2>
<p>Nonetheless, the demand for veterinary medicine seems to be growing. There are <a href="https://www.avma.org/ProfessionalDevelopment/Education/Accreditation/Colleges/Pages/colleges-accredited.aspx">30 accredited colleges of veterinary medicine</a> in the United States with <a href="http://aavmc.org/data/files/reports/annual%20report%202015%20aavmc_final_r.pdf">over 4,100 seats available</a> as of 2014. </p>
<p>The application rate to these colleges <a href="http://aavmc.org/PressRelease/?id=371">remains strong</a>. In fact, there has been a 2 percent annual growth in applicants to colleges of veterinary medicine since 1980. </p>
<p>So, what does this mean?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150183/original/image-20161214-2505-18g2fkd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/150183/original/image-20161214-2505-18g2fkd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150183/original/image-20161214-2505-18g2fkd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150183/original/image-20161214-2505-18g2fkd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150183/original/image-20161214-2505-18g2fkd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150183/original/image-20161214-2505-18g2fkd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/150183/original/image-20161214-2505-18g2fkd.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Is the growth in veterinary education a market bubble?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of MSU CVM</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a result of the growth in the colleges of veterinary medicine, more seats are available. (What is <a href="http://aavmc.org/data/files/reports/annual%20report%202015%20aavmc_final_r.pdf">decreasing</a>, however, is the applicant-to-seat ratio.) Two new colleges are seeking accreditation, while the existing ones are boosting class size. This expansion is happening in the face of the <a href="http://avmajournals.avma.org.proxy1.cl.msu.edu/doi/full/10.2460/javma.242.11.1507">2013 Veterinary Workforce Study</a> that estimates that there is an excess of veterinary labor nationally.</p>
<p>High tuition, low wages, an oversupply of veterinarians and more seats to study veterinary medicine are strong signals of a veterinary education market bubble. </p>
<h2>What can institutions do?</h2>
<p>A national summit on student debt, organized by the American Veterinary Medical Association, Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges and MSU CVM in April 2016, <a href="https://www.avma.org/News/JAVMANews/Pages/161015c.aspx">came up with a set of recommendations</a> to reduce student debt. This included increasing starting salaries by 10 percent and reducing veterinary student educational expenses by 10 percent. </p>
<p>Already, a national working group, representing many colleges, veterinarians and organizations, has committed itself to coming up with solutions to reach these goals. Advocacy initiatives for more favorable student loan terms <a href="https://www.avma.org/Advocacy/National/Congress/Pages/Veterinary-Professional-Educational-Issues.aspx">have also been initiated</a>. </p>
<p>But the question still remains whether colleges of veterinary medicine will decrease their tuition. Indeed, a college that can offer a high-quality education at a lower cost will have a market advantage. </p>
<p>But this change may come at a price many colleges are not willing or able to pay. Reduced tuition means alternate revenue streams, cutting costs (reduced faculty numbers) or increased class size to maintain revenue.</p>
<p>The truth is if colleges do not prepare and change, they risk being a casualty of a market bubble.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/67513/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julie Funk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Students aspiring to veterinary education are investing in the hope that it will return value. The reality, however, is different.Julie Funk, Associate Dean for Professional Academic Programs and Student Success, Professor, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/533302016-01-21T10:46:46Z2016-01-21T10:46:46ZConfessions of a MOOC professor: three things I learned and two things I worry about<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108759/original/image-20160120-26082-53j4s6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Could MOOCs transform higher ed?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/familymwr/5322123751/in/photolist-97igYk-33PQq9-9J2tgr-9J2rUV-kc3smZ-kc3r9t-p1x6sq-EVfcZ-5sKSHN-4gWYKB-9J5jWs-9J5jDh-9J2svr-9J2rp4-5AVVjm-ebbjre-9J2unR-9J5iWN-53XTba-afFZq2-nDpUHd-nmVQ5c-nFcNhP-nmVU18-nBnXWq-nmW8W5-nD8Eb6-nDcQgu-nD8DD4-nmVQ9u-nDcZTf-nDq3xS-nD8Pgv-nDqGpz-nDcZ3C-nmVY1n-nFcWuF-nFcWmV-nD8N2M-nDqFaR-nmVXbL-nDqEMB-nD8MgP-nDq129-nDqE1g-nBo4gU-nFcUuP-nD8Lb2-nmVVhg-nDcW8Q">U.S. Army</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We have heard a lot of talk about MOOCs, or massive online open courses, over the last couple of years. On the plus side, MOOCs often draw enormous <a href="http://chronicle.com/blogs/wiredcampus/moocs-are-still-rising-at-least-in-numbers/57527">enrollments</a> and are easy to sign up for and use; all you need, it seems, is an Internet connection and an interest to learn. </p>
<p>On the down side, they have significant attrition rates – about 90 percent of those enrolled <a href="http://www.katyjordan.com/MOOCproject.html">never complete</a> a course – and, according to their most alarmist critics, these courses may even <a href="http://www.inside-higher-ed.com/kevin-careys-good-idea-moocs-needs-help/">threaten the jobs</a> of college professors nationwide. </p>
<p>Indeed, despite the large dropout rate, MOOCs certainly end up serving a significant number of students. If the initial enrollment in a MOOC is 40,000 and only 4,000 actually complete the course, that’s still a lot of students compared to a traditional classroom. A professor teaching four courses a year in classes with 30 students each would have to teach for more than 33 years to reach 4,000 students. </p>
<p>It’s true that if these courses ever caught on across the culture in a fundamental way, as many have been predicting, they could significantly transform higher education.</p>
<p>Amid all the kerfuffle, and based on having taught <a href="https://www.coursera.org/instructor/johncovach">several courses</a> for Coursera over the past two years (and more than 250,000 students worldwide), I have learned a few things that cause me to both hope and worry about the future of higher education as we have known it for the last several decades. </p>
<h2>The three things I learned</h2>
<ul>
<li>MOOC students are mostly older than college students</li>
</ul>
<p>Roughly two-thirds of my students have been over the age of 25. Admittedly, I teach courses on the history of rock music, which might tend to attract older students. But my numbers are not much different from Coursera’s numbers generally. </p>
<p>When we think about college courses, we assume the students are age 18-24, since that’s the usual age at which one gets an undergraduate degree. There are a significant number of people out there, however, who are interested in continuing to learn later in life. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108762/original/image-20160120-26101-17h33hp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108762/original/image-20160120-26101-17h33hp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108762/original/image-20160120-26101-17h33hp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108762/original/image-20160120-26101-17h33hp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108762/original/image-20160120-26101-17h33hp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108762/original/image-20160120-26101-17h33hp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108762/original/image-20160120-26101-17h33hp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Students who take MOOC courses tend to be older and are mostly international.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/mathplourde/10425003764/in/photolist-gTdSqd-e6NW3q-ggH827-rAzYJv-dRvhn4-bVGbrg-dDRGpb-h1FxoP-qRGwfS-nvZ6HN-ffV2Sy-ftGwPa-ftGvY6-ftGv6M-ftGuXK-ftWNtw-ftWMJQ-ftGrFn-ftWMcb-ftGqUg-ftWLeC-ftGpAH-ftGprx-ftWJRS-ftWJGf-ftGosM-ftGoig-ftGofi-ftGnZe-ftWHMQ-ftWHHQ-ftGnT2-ftGnyk-ftGnuT-ftGnbT-ftWGPG-ftGmT6-ftWGjw-ftWFZs-ftGkPe-ftWFp5-ftGjTX-ftWEx9-ftGjiH-ftWDHs-ftWDe9-ftGicz-ftWCQu-ftWCf3-ftWBWj">Mathieu Plourde</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Continuing education courses at colleges and universities have served that public to a certain degree, but it is clear that there is more demand among older students than many might have suspected. Given the chance to learn according to their own schedule and location, many find this option very attractive.</p>
<ul>
<li>MOOC students are mostly international and already college-educated</li>
</ul>
<p>Only about a third of my students live in the United States. The rest come from more than 150 countries around the world. This percentage of international students is consistent with other Coursera MOOCs. </p>
<p>Interestingly, a majority have already earned at least a bachelor’s degree, with a significant number also holding a master’s or Ph.D. degree. While others are seeking skills that will help advance their careers, many of these students are learning simply for the fun of it. </p>
<p>Our surveys have shown that most are very satisfied with the courses – they are an older, well-educated and international cohort of students who believe in MOOCs.</p>
<ul>
<li>MOOC culture is mostly a “free” culture</li>
</ul>
<p>As with music on the web, MOOC students expect the courses to be free, or very close to it. If each of the 250,000 students who enrolled in my courses had to pay even a dollar for the course, the numbers would fall significantly – probably by as much as 90 percent. </p>
<p>Most people would be willing to pay only for the credential that the course offers. A course with no credential has got to be free if enrollment is going to be massive. </p>
<p>My courses offer a free option that provides students with a statement of completion they can print out. Many have expressed great pride in earning this modest credential: they post them on Facebook.</p>
<h2>Two things I worry about</h2>
<ul>
<li>The flattening of expertise</li>
</ul>
<p>In an online world that counts Wikipedia as a trusted resource, the expertise of the university professor can no longer be guaranteed to win the day. Scholars may argue that Wikipedia must be <a href="http://isites.harvard.edu/icb/icb.do?keyword=k70847&pageid=icb.page346376">used with caution</a>, but that’s not the way everyone else sees it. </p>
<p>Some of my students use Wikipedia and other online sources very effectively. The democratic access to information that digital technology facilitates flattens the hierarchy of expertise: a university professor’s claim to superior expertise is no longer unquestioned.</p>
<ul>
<li>Alternative modes of awarding credentials</li>
</ul>
<p>The <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/08/upshot/true-reform-in-higher-education-when-online-degrees-are-seen-as-official.html">rise of badges</a> and certificates makes it possible for students to earn an alternative credential to university credits and degrees. Universities can argue all day long about whether or not an online course is equivalent to a traditional one, but if alternative credentials come to be acknowledged by employers as useful in assessing a candidate’s skills and preparation, and if students value them, this is in many ways a moot point. </p>
<p>And when older, more experienced students have a satisfactory experience with a MOOC, the validity of this form of learning and the credential it provides increases within the culture. </p>
<p>Finally, it is difficult to control the validity of such credentials outside of the United States. Just because some American employers may be wary of an online credential does not mean that all employers are.</p>
<ul>
<li>The threat to colleges and universities</li>
</ul>
<p>College and universities “sell” an education. The price they can charge for this product depends to a great extent on the fact that they have an almost exclusive ability to grant credentials, based partly on a culture that acknowledges that university faculty possess superior expertise. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108768/original/image-20160120-26087-1ebp6ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108768/original/image-20160120-26087-1ebp6ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108768/original/image-20160120-26087-1ebp6ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108768/original/image-20160120-26087-1ebp6ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108768/original/image-20160120-26087-1ebp6ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108768/original/image-20160120-26087-1ebp6ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/108768/original/image-20160120-26087-1ebp6ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How will the online transfer of knowledge change higher ed?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/37996625142@N01/601687741/in/photolist-VaNNz-Vci2q-nDcPWb-av2zik-98PULS-9C1qxi-7SUM1J-8kkJZH-dryLjj-dryKCY-dryKqo-dryyAa-dryyhi-dryy2n-dryK8W-dryxLt-dryAs6-aiim4Q-uYmodP-5pGtc3-dryyWX-dryHew-bvtmo7-uFuRc1-fCCN1t-9J2ri6-dryAd4-thLuuR-ocgNoF-aBpG52-ao6Ab6-afFZq2-nDpUHd-nmVQ5c-nFcNhP-av2nVJ-nmVU18-nBnXWq-nmW8W5-nD8Eb6-nDcQgu-nD8DD4-nmVQ9u-nDcZTf-nDq3xS-nD8Pgv-nDqGpz-nDcZ3C-nmVY1n-nFcWuF">ashley cooper</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But if the culture embraces the idea that there are other valid sources of expertise, then universities are in for a severe downturn in business. This will not be the case in all areas of education, but it certainly will spell trouble in many of them. </p>
<p>We can no longer expect to be the only viable alternative for education and training. This is maybe not the end of college as much as the end of an educational monopoly. </p>
<p>Some colleges will fail.</p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>Colleges and universities must work to secure their claim to superior expertise, not within the ivory tower but within the culture at large. MOOCs are very useful in spreading the word about the fantastic thinking and teaching that goes on inside of universities. </p>
<p>The public should know more about what we do – they need to be invited in. Schools also must make certain that the credentials they provide really are the best preparations for success, and, just as importantly, that they are perceived this way among the general public. </p>
<p>We also should stop thinking of higher education primarily in terms of American students between the ages of 18 and 24.</p>
<p>In a world that will surely introduce significant and substantial competition in many areas of education very soon, universities must act now. </p>
<p>Consider this: Napster, the online music store, was introduced in the year 1999. In the 16 years since, the music business has been transformed by file sharing in ways that have been quick and deep. Nobody could have predicted it then. </p>
<p>Higher education must be sure it is not the same kind of victim of change. Let us not fiddle while Rome burns.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53330/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Covach does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A scholar who has taught 250,000 students worldwide through the Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) reflects on the changes that these courses are bringing. Should all those in higher ed be worried?John Covach, Director, Institute for Popular Music, University of RochesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.