tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/gasoline-23583/articlesGasoline – The Conversation2022-09-13T22:18:17Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1906162022-09-13T22:18:17Z2022-09-13T22:18:17ZFed likely to stay the course on interest rate hike as inflation ticks up but gas prices ease<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/484416/original/file-20220913-20-683yx2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C16%2C5447%2C3620&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Lower gas prices will put downward pressure on inflation.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/gas-prices-are-displayed-at-a-loves-gas-station-on-news-photo/1423171717?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Federal Reserve received mixed news in the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm">latest data on U.S. inflation</a> as it mulls another <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-seen-delivering-75-basis-point-hike-next-week-with-more-come-2022-09-13/">rate hike</a>.</p>
<p>Consumer prices <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/monthly-us-consumer-prices-unexpectedly-rise-august-core-inflation-picks-up-2022-09-13/">rose 8.3%</a> in August from a year earlier, data released on Sept. 13, 2022, shows. While this pace is down from the 8.5% annual gain experienced in July, it’s still higher than what <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/inflation-report-could-show-cpi-moderating-as-gas-and-travel-costs-fall.html">some economists had expected</a>.</p>
<p>The increase comes despite efforts by the U.S. central bank to tamp down the rising cost of living by <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/fed-decision-july-2022-.html">repeatedly upping baseline interest rates</a> to slow the economy. </p>
<p>It will give the Fed encouragement to opt for a third straight 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike when it meets Sept. 20-21. But despite suggestions that the rate-setters might apply the economy’s brakes more aggressively – by means of a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-seen-delivering-75-basis-point-hike-next-week-with-more-come-2022-09-13/">full 1 percentage point rate jump</a> – I believe this is unlikely based on which goods went up in price and which did not in the latest data.</p>
<p>On a month-to-month basis, the categories of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/monthly-us-consumer-prices-unexpectedly-rise-august-core-inflation-picks-up-2022-09-13/">food and shelter</a> <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm">saw some of the steepest gains</a>. Food prices increased by 0.8% in August, with eating out jumping at a higher rate than buying groceries. Although this will disappoint consumers hoping to see a drop in food prices, <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIUFDSL">August’s data</a> does at least show that the rate of increase is slowing – down from gains of over 1% in recent months.</p>
<p>The same isn’t true for shelter, which rose 0.7% in August, the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAH1">biggest one-month increase since 1990</a>. </p>
<p>On their own, these increases would be cause for concern for the Fed – suggesting that attempts to cool inflation through rate hikes haven’t worked. But elsewhere there is one big indicator that overall inflation may soon be heading south: gas prices.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SETB01/">gasoline index dropped by 10.6% in August</a>, one of the biggest one-month declines ever, following a drop of 7.7% in July. </p>
<p>This is likely the result of a number of factors, both global in the shape of an <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/prices-ease-attention-turns-europes-gas-stores-2022-09-06/">easing in the supply issues</a> that had driven costs up, and national with Americans <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/industry-news/a40770031/high-summer-gas-prices-vacation-travel/#:%7E:text=A%20new%20survey%20from%20AAA,habits%20to%20higher%20gas%20prices.">changing their travel habits and driving less</a> to minimize the effects of earlier gas price increases. This change in behavior has translated into lower demand and contributed to an overall decline in prices. </p>
<p>And the thing about gas prices is that any change has a knock-on effect on the prices of other commodities. Lower gas prices should mean <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/45165/41076_err160-summary.pdf?v=0">the cost of transporting goods</a>, including food, will go down over time. This should eventually bring down grocery bills.</p>
<p>Similarly, lower gas prices will eventually filter into energy costs. Lower energy bills may be a relief to renters and homeowners alike. As to rent inflation, that is <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/07/12/higher-interest-rates-may-not-make-a-dent-in-rising-rents-for-more-than-a-year/">trickier for the Fed to manage</a>. More interest rate hikes should dampen the property market, but making it harder for people to buy homes means the demand for rental units increases – something that would put more upward pressure on rents. All this puts the Fed in a very tricky situation. </p>
<p>Although the latest inflation report wasn’t exactly what monetary policymakers at the Fed would have been looking for, I don’t believe it suggests that its policy of late hasn’t worked.</p>
<p>Overall the consumer price index increased at a slower pace than in recent months. And given that gas prices have declined, the Fed will likely want to wait and see what effect this has on inflation before deciding to get more aggressive with rate increases.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/190616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Edouard Wemy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Inflation remained near a 40-year high due to a jump in the cost of food and shelter. But that might not mean the Federal Reserve will get more aggressive when it comes to monetary policy.Edouard Wemy, Assistant Professor of Economics, Clark UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1856762022-06-23T11:49:22Z2022-06-23T11:49:22ZFederal gas tax holiday: Biden says it will provide ‘a little bit of relief’ – but experts say even that may be a stretch<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470390/original/file-20220622-11-8yvi2o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=104%2C67%2C3992%2C2659&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gas prices are at record highs. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/GasolinePrices/5a001648107d4a9a8e0c898ab6404213/photo?Query=gasoline&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8076&currentItemNo=49">AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>President Joe Biden <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/president-biden-gas-tax-suspension-102442992.html">called on Congress</a> to suspend the federal gas tax to “bring families just a little bit of relief” as average gasoline prices <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_a_epmr_pte_dpgal_w.htm">exceed US$5 a gallon</a>. The tax is <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=10&t=5">18.4 cents on regular gasoline</a> and 24.4 cents on diesel. Biden’s proposal would rescind both taxes for 90 days.</em></p>
<p><em>Several states, such as <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/maryland-georgia-announce-gas-tax-holidays-federal-efforts-stall-congr-rcna20687">Maryland</a> and <a href="https://www.wabe.org/kemp-signs-law-suspending-georgia-gas-taxes-through-may/">Georgia</a>, have temporarily waived their state gasoline taxes to reduce the burden on consumers.</em></p>
<p><em>The Conversation asked four experts whether gas tax waivers are an effective way to provide economic relief to U.S. households, what revenue from the federal gas tax is used for and what other impacts these measures could have.</em></p>
<h2>Not much relief</h2>
<p><strong>Jay Zagorsky, Senior Lecturer in Markets, Public Policy and Law, Boston University</strong> </p>
<p>As an <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com/">economist</a> who has <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-why-pump-prices-havent-fallen-as-fast-as-oil-has-39162">studied gasoline prices</a>, I doubt that waiving gas taxes will meaningfully lower prices at the pump. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosted <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/gasoline-prices-shoot-up-at-fastest-rate-on-record-11647957303">gasoline prices dramatically</a>, and with the <a href="https://newsroom.aaa.com/2022/06/from-sea-to-shining-sea-aaa-predicts-47-9-million-people-will-travel-this-july-4th/">summer driving season</a> in full swing, politicians feel a need to show voters they are doing something. Cutting gas taxes makes great political theater, but as a few numbers show, it is an ineffective policy.</p>
<p>Government data shows that in an average day, the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_prim_a_EPM0_P00_Mgalpd_a.htm">U.S. uses about 350 million gallons of gasoline</a>. That is pretty close to the <a href="https://www.census.gov/popclock/">population of 333 million people</a>, so on average the typical person uses about one gallon of gas per day.</p>
<p>Let’s assume the entire reduction of the gas tax is passed on to the consumer. That means average savings of just 18 cents a day, or $16.56 over 90 days. Sixteen dollars will <a href="https://thegate.boardingarea.com/the-average-cost-of-pizza-in-each-state-in-the-united-states/">buy you about two cheese pizzas</a>. Given that before the pandemic the typical U.S. family <a href="https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/consumer-expenditures/2020/pdf/home.pdf">spent about $2,100 on gas each year</a>, $16 barely registers.</p>
<p>Moreover, we have some data on what happens during a gas tax holiday from when Maryland tried it a few months ago. According to the American Automobile Association, the average price of gasoline in Maryland <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/">just before the state’s gas tax holiday</a> was $4.25 per gallon. Two days after the state stopped charging the gas tax, prices were $3.81. A 44-cent drop may look significant, but it’s not that simple.</p>
<p>First, not all of that decrease happened because of eliminating the gas tax. Neither Delaware nor the District of Columbia, both of which border Maryland, had waived their gas taxes. However, over the same time period, Delaware gas prices declined by 19 cents per gallon and Washington’s prices fell by almost 16 cents. These drops are partly due to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gas-prices-fall-oil-ukraine-russia/">falling oil prices</a>. Florida, which is far from Maryland, saw a 16-cent drop per gallon over this same time period.</p>
<p>I believe the president’s proposal, unfortunately, will not provide much relief at the pump.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ixL3mDejAYU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Americans drive far more today than they did 30 years ago, but highway construction funding hasn’t kept up.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Less money to fix roads</h2>
<p><strong>Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, Public Utility Research Center, University of Florida</strong></p>
<p>Federal highway maintenance is primarily paid for with gas tax revenues that flow into the Highway Trust Fund. The federal levy of 18.4 cents per gallon, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-gas-taxs-tortured-history-shows-how-hard-it-is-to-fund-new-infrastructure-163152">unchanged for almost 30 years</a>, is a major component of these revenues, along with taxes on <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/gastax.cfm">diesel fuel, gasohol, methanol, liquefied gases and compressed natural gas</a>.</p>
<p>The federal government collects roughly <a href="https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57138#:%7E:text=Status%20of%20the%20Highway%20Trust%20Fund,-The%20federal%20government's&text=In%202019%2C%20%2445%20billion%20in,gasoline%20and%20other%20motor%20fuels">$37 billion to $38 billion per year in revenues</a> from the gas tax. These revenues have remained fairly consistent over the past five years, even through the heart of the pandemic. Other highway-related fines and fees also go into the Highway Trust Fund, but their magnitude is comparatively small.</p>
<p>In 2020, the latest year for which numbers are available, the federal government spent roughly <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2020/fa5.cfm">$46 billion on highway projects</a>. This figure does not include the subsidies that the federal government extends to state and local governments to reduce the cost of borrowing for highway projects.</p>
<p>But if the government collected $38 billion in gas taxes, where did the other $8 billion come from? Since most politicians <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-government-and-politics-628666300e1ed0c9ad11c6eb8c608c4f">strongly resist raising gas taxes</a>, even to pay for much-needed repairs, the government has turned to less transparent alternatives. </p>
<p>Several times in the past decade, officials have shored up the balance in the Highway Trust Fund with intragovernmental transfers from other accounts. Most recently, the fund received <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/highwaytrustfund/docs/fe-1_jan2022.pdf">$10 billion this way in October 2020 and $90 billion in December 2021</a>. That represents $100 billion that was not spent providing other services.</p>
<p>If the Highway Trust Fund faces more shortfalls, program managers will either greenlight fewer infrastructure maintenance projects or transfer money from other programs. This would be the most likely outcome if Congress opts to suspend the federal gas tax.</p>
<p>Ultimately, taxpayers pay for everything that the government does. Policymakers simply decide how and when that will happen.</p>
<h2>Waivers only help drivers</h2>
<p><strong>Erich J. Muehlegger, Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, Davis</strong></p>
<p>Research shows that for decades, lower-income households have <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41789255">spent a larger fraction of their budgets</a> on gasoline than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.025">higher-income households</a>. The growing transition to electric vehicles has contributed to this pattern because high-income households in the U.S. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/706793">have been more likely to go electric</a> and, as a result, pay less in gasoline taxes. </p>
<p>This means that a gas tax holiday tends to benefit lower-income households relatively more than higher-income households, but there are two important caveats. </p>
<p>First, not everyone benefits from a gas tax holiday. The very poor who lack cars, urban households who rely on public transit, and the elderly, who tend to drive less, benefit less from a tax holiday because they consume less gasoline. A gas tax holiday can soften the blow of high gasoline prices for commuters, but it provides little direct benefit to households that do not drive. </p>
<p>Second, even optimistic estimates suggest that gas tax holidays produce relatively modest savings for households. That’s because gasoline taxes are <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/factors-affecting-gasoline-prices.php">a small component of the price of gasoline</a> in the U.S., especially relative to crude oil prices. </p>
<p>Even if savings from a waiver of the 18.4 cents-per-gallon federal gas tax were entirely passed on to consumers, a typical motorist who drives 10,000 miles per year in a 20 miles-per-gallon Ford F-150 would see about $7.70 in savings per month from a federal gas tax holiday. Drivers of more fuel-efficient vehicles would save even less. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1538962927528448001"}"></div></p>
<h2>Consider aid for heating and cooling</h2>
<p><strong>Sanya Carley, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University</strong></p>
<p>Millions of Americans face material hardship on a daily basis, and energy costs are a primary contributor. A gas tax waiver could temporarily help relieve people who have to rely on gasoline for transportation and who live in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00763-9">energy poverty</a>.</p>
<p>Current gasoline price spikes are happening at an especially hard time for many households. </p>
<p>In a recent study, colleagues and I found that 28% of all low-income households <a href="https://energyjustice.indiana.edu/doc/ejl-energy-insecurity-report-winter-2022.pdf">struggled to pay their energy bills</a> from November 2021 through January 2022, and 38% carried debt on their utility accounts. Now, with higher gasoline prices, filling a 12-gallon tank can cost about $60, up from about $26 in 2020. That increase may prevent households with limited budgets from covering all of their expenses, including basic needs such as food and health care.</p>
<p>Households with vulnerable members, such as small children or people with chronic health issues, are especially burdened by energy expenses than other groups. Temporary relief can be especially helpful for these consumers.</p>
<p>But a gas tax holiday may not be the most effective way to deliver that relief, especially since these waivers are temporary. Direct assistance to households for food and energy spending, or investments in <a href="https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/weatherize">weatherizing homes</a> to reduce their heating and cooling bills, could provide larger and more lasting benefits.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/would-gas-tax-breaks-make-a-big-difference-when-prices-are-skyrocketing-we-asked-4-experts-179892">article originally published</a> on March 24, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185676/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erich Muehlegger receives funding from the National Science Foundation and has received funding from the State of California Public Transportation Account and the Road Repair and Accountability Act of 2017 (Senate Bill 1) via the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sanya Carley receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the Indiana University Office of the Vice president for Research.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore J. Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission, none of which has editorial control of any of the content the Center produces.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We asked four experts to explain what gas taxes are used for and whether waiving them will make much of a difference to American households.Jay L. Zagorsky, Senior Lecturer in Markets, Public Policy and Law, Questrom School of Business, Boston UniversityErich Muehlegger, Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, DavisSanya Carley, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana UniversityTheodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1798922022-03-24T12:17:25Z2022-03-24T12:17:25ZWould gas tax breaks make a big difference when prices are skyrocketing? We asked 4 experts<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453928/original/file-20220323-13-1fndtyl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5775%2C3838&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gas station in Seattle on March 11, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/WashingtonGasPrices/ea950a59ec6d4e859fb8f87eb4d23d48/photo">AP Photo/Ted S. Warren</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With gasoline prices trending <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_a_epmr_pte_dpgal_w.htm">over US$4 per gallon nationwide</a>, politicians are feeling the heat. In response, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/maryland-georgia-announce-gas-tax-holidays-federal-efforts-stall-congr-rcna20687">Maryland</a> and <a href="https://www.wabe.org/kemp-signs-law-suspending-georgia-gas-taxes-through-may/">Georgia</a> have temporarily waived their state gasoline taxes to reduce the burden on consumers. Other states are considering similar actions, and some members of Congress have called for <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/594426-dem-plan-to-suspend-the-gas-tax-faces-bipartisan-pushback">suspending the federal gas tax</a>. The Conversation asked four experts whether gas tax waivers are an effective way to provide economic relief to U.S. households, and what other impacts these measures could have.</p>
<h2>Not a windfall</h2>
<p><strong>Jay Zagorsky, Senior Lecturer in Markets, Public Policy and Law, Boston University</strong> </p>
<p>As an <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com/">economist</a> who has <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-why-pump-prices-havent-fallen-as-fast-as-oil-has-39162">studied gasoline prices</a>, I doubt that waiving gas taxes will meaningfully lower prices at the pump. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine boosted <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/gasoline-prices-shoot-up-at-fastest-rate-on-record-11647957303">gasoline prices dramatically</a>, and politicians feel a need to show voters they are doing something. Cutting gas taxes makes great political theater, but as a few numbers show, it is an ineffective policy.</p>
<p>According to the American Automobile Association, the average price of gasoline in Maryland <a href="https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/">just before the state’s gas tax holiday</a> was $4.25 per gallon. Two days after the state stopped charging the gas tax, prices were $3.81. A 44-cent drop may look significant, but it’s not that simple.</p>
<p>First, not all of that decrease happened because of eliminating the gas tax. Neither Delaware nor the District of Columbia, both of which border Maryland, had waived their gas taxes. However, over the same time period, Delaware gas prices declined by 19 cents per gallon and D.C. prices fell by almost 16 cents. These drops are partly due to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gas-prices-fall-oil-ukraine-russia/">falling oil prices</a>. Florida, which is far from Maryland, saw a 16-cent drop per gallon over this same time period.</p>
<p>The latest U.S. government statistics show that Maryland consumes <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_prim_a_EPM0_P00_Mgalpd_a.htm">4.5 million gallons of gasoline per day</a>. That sounds like a lot, but <a href="https://msa.maryland.gov/msa/mdmanual/01glance/html/pop.html">Maryland has 6 million people</a>. That means the average person consumes about 22 gallons per month. Doing the math, we find that cutting gasoline prices by 44 cents per gallon saves the average person in Maryland about $10 monthly – the price of <a href="https://www.foodandwine.com/news/pizza-prices-nationwide-2021">an average cheese pizza</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="LdjX5" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/LdjX5/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Less money to fix roads</h2>
<p><strong>Theodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, Public Utility Research Center, University of Florida</strong></p>
<p>Federal highway maintenance is primarily paid for with gas tax revenues that flow into the Highway Trust Fund. The federal levy of 18.4 cents per gallon, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-gas-taxs-tortured-history-shows-how-hard-it-is-to-fund-new-infrastructure-163152">unchanged for almost 30 years</a>, is a major component of these revenues, along with taxes on <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/gastax.cfm">diesel fuel, gasohol, methanol, liquefied gases and compressed natural gas</a>.</p>
<p>The federal government collects roughly <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/highwaytrustfund/docs/fe-1_jan2022.pdf">$37 billion to $38 billion per year in revenues</a> from the gas tax. These revenues have remained fairly consistent over the past five years, even through the heart of the pandemic. Other highway-related fines and fees also go into the Highway Trust Fund, but their magnitude is comparatively small.</p>
<p>In 2020, the latest year for which numbers are available, the federal government spent roughly <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2020/fa5.cfm">$46 billion on highway projects</a>. This figure does not include the subsidies that the federal government extends to state and local governments to reduce the cost of borrowing for highway projects.</p>
<p>But if the government collected $38 billion in gas taxes, where did the other $8 billion come from? Since most politicians <a href="https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-business-government-and-politics-628666300e1ed0c9ad11c6eb8c608c4f">strongly resist raising gas taxes</a>, even to pay for much-needed repairs, the government has turned to less transparent alternatives. </p>
<p>Several times in the past decade, officials have shored up the balance in the Highway Trust Fund with intragovernmental transfers from other accounts. Most recently, the Fund received <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/highwaytrustfund/docs/fe-1_jan2022.pdf">$10 billion this way in October 2020 and $90 billion in December 2021</a>. That represents $100 billion that was not spent providing other services.</p>
<p>If the Highway Trust Fund faces more shortfalls, program managers will either greenlight fewer infrastructure maintenance projects or transfer money from other programs. This would be the most likely outcome if Congress opts to suspend the federal gas tax.</p>
<p>Ultimately, taxpayers pay for everything that the government does. Policymakers simply decide how and when that will happen.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ixL3mDejAYU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Americans drive far more today than they did 30 years ago, but highway construction funding hasn’t kept up.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Waivers only help drivers</h2>
<p><strong>Erich J. Muehlegger, Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, Davis</strong></p>
<p>Research shows that for decades, lower-income households have <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41789255">spent a larger fraction of their budgets</a> on gasoline than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.03.025">higher-income households</a>. The growing transition to electric vehicles has contributed to this pattern because high-income households in the U.S. <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/706793">have been more likely to go electric</a> and, as a result, pay less in gasoline taxes. </p>
<p>This means that a gas tax holiday tends to benefit lower-income households relatively more than higher-income households – but there are two important caveats. </p>
<p>First, not everyone benefits from a gas tax holiday. The very poor who lack cars, urban households who rely on public transit, and the elderly, who tend to drive less, benefit less from a tax holiday because they consume less gasoline. A gas tax holiday can soften the blow of high gasoline prices for commuters, but it provides little direct benefit to households that do not drive. </p>
<p>Second, even optimistic estimates suggest that gas tax holidays produce relatively modest savings for households. That’s because gasoline taxes are <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/factors-affecting-gasoline-prices.php">a small component of the price of gasoline</a> in the U.S., especially relative to crude oil prices. </p>
<p>Even if savings from a waiver of the 18.4 cents-per-gallon federal gas tax were entirely passed on to consumers, a typical motorist who drives 10,000 miles per year in a 20 miles-per-gallon Ford F-150 would see about $7.70 in savings per month from a federal gas tax holiday. Drivers of more fuel-efficient vehicles would save even less. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1506363585349439491"}"></div></p>
<h2>Consider aid for heating and cooling</h2>
<p><strong>Sanya Carley, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University</strong></p>
<p>Millions of Americans face material hardship on a daily basis, and energy costs are a primary contributor. A gas tax waiver could temporarily help relieve people who have to rely on gasoline for transportation and who live in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00763-9">energy poverty</a>.</p>
<p>Current gasoline price spikes are happening at an especially hard time for many households. The winter of 2021-2022 brought frigid temperatures in some regions of the country, and natural gas prices were high. In a recent study, colleagues and I found that 28% of all low-income households <a href="https://energyjustice.indiana.edu/projects/ejl-energy-insecurity-report-winter-2022.pdf">struggled to pay their energy bills this past winter</a>, from November through January, and 38% carried debt on their utility accounts.</p>
<p>Now, with higher gasoline prices, filling a 12-gallon tank can cost about $51, up from about $26 in 2020. That increase may prevent households with limited budgets from covering all of their expenses, including basic needs such as food and health care.</p>
<p>Households with vulnerable members, such as small children or people with chronic health issues, are especially burdened by energy expenses than other groups. Temporary relief can be especially helpful for these consumers.</p>
<p>But a gas tax holiday may not be the most effective way to deliver that relief, especially since these waivers are temporary. Direct assistance to households for food and energy spending, or investments in <a href="https://www.energy.gov/energysaver/weatherize">weatherizing homes</a> to reduce their heating and cooling bills, could provide larger and more lasting benefits.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erich Muehlegger receives funding from the National Science Foundation and has received funding from the State of California Public Transportation Account and the Road Repair and Accountability Act of 2017 (Senate Bill 1) via the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sanya Carley receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the Indiana University Office of the Vice president for Research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Theodore J. Kury is the Director of Energy Studies at the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, which is sponsored in part by the Florida electric and gas utilities and the Florida Public Service Commission, none of which has editorial control of any of the content the Center produces.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Consumers are feeling pain at the pump and demanding solutions. Some politicians are pushing gasoline tax waivers – but that means less money to fix roads, and often not much economic relief.Jay L. Zagorsky, Senior Lecturer in Markets, Public Policy and Law, Questrom School of Business, Boston UniversityErich Muehlegger, Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, DavisSanya Carley, Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana UniversityTheodore J. Kury, Director of Energy Studies, University of FloridaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1788682022-03-09T13:17:29Z2022-03-09T13:17:29ZThe US is banning Russian oil imports, but an embargo that includes European allies would have more impact<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450822/original/file-20220308-21-1i9qtqe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4672%2C2921&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Moscow headquarters of Rosneft, Russia's state-owned oil company.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/UkraineInvasion-BP/738e04f6cd0a416ea069e67229a8bd40/photo">AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>President Joe Biden announced on March 8, 2022, that the U.S. will <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/08/fact-sheet-united-states-bans-imports-of-russian-oil-liquefied-natural-gas-and-coal/">ban imports of oil from Russia</a>, along with refined petroleum products, natural gas and coal. The ban is the latest U.S. action designed to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Global energy policy expert <a href="https://fletcher.tufts.edu/people/amy-myers-jaffe">Amy Myers Jaffe</a> explains how this step is likely to affect oil prices – and Russia.</em></p>
<h2>How important is Russia as a US oil supplier?</h2>
<p>Russia produces <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/overview/country/RUS">close to 11 million barrels per day of crude oil</a>. It uses roughly half of this output for its own internal demand, which presumably has increased due to higher military fuel requirements, and it exports 5 million to 6 million barrels per day. </p>
<p>Today, Russia is the second largest crude oil producer in the world, behind the U.S. and ahead of Saudi Arabia, but sometimes that order shifts. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russias-oil-gas-revenue-windfall-2022-01-21/">Russia earned over US$110 billion in 2021 from oil exports</a>, twice as much as its earnings from natural gas exports. </p>
<p>For the U.S., Russia is a relatively small oil source. In 2021 it provided <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-does-the-u-s-still-buy-russian-oil-11646151935">8% of U.S. imports of crude oil and petroleum products</a>. At times in recent years that share has increased, after events such as sanctions on Venezuela and storms that disrupted offshore production last year in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. </p>
<p>But Russian crude oil is not really a baseload staple for U.S. refiners. Purchases were <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/030622-us-european-allies-considering-coordinated-ban-on-russian-oil-imports-blinken">down to 84,000 barrels per day</a> when the Biden Administration formally announced the import ban. It will be a minor inconvenience for U.S. refiners to avoid Russian oil. </p>
<p>And the reverse is also true: U.S. <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/countries_long/Russia/russia.pdf">purchases barely register on Russia’s massive oil earnings</a>. To be effective, individual country bans must be aggregated across many countries to produce consequences that actually affect the Russian purse. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PXQXNovyIoo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden announced on March 8, 2022, that the U.S. would ban imports of Russian oil.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What about other countries that buy Russian oil?</h2>
<p>The challenge to institute similar bans is much harder for Europe. The United Kingdom, which is an oil producer, is also <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-planning-to-ban-russian-oil-imports-11646746787">banning Russian oil imports</a>, but getting other G-7 nations like Germany, Italy and Japan to join will be a hard diplomatic lift. It’s not impossible, but Germany – the largest economy in Europe – currently <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/germany-signals-opposition-to-cutting-essential-russian-energy?sref=Hjm5biAW">is holding off</a>, though it is making plans to find alternatives. </p>
<p>About half of Russia’s exported oil is shipped to European countries, including Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria. China is another large buyer: It imports <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/030122-factbox-a-look-at-key-russia-china-crude-oil-ties-as-ukraine-crisis-rages">1.6 million barrels per day</a> of Russian crude oil.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether China will take any extra Russian oil, which is likely to be highly discounted, and swap it out by releasing other barrels that could be scooped up by European refiners. India has already bought <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/indian-refiners-are-snapping-up-cheap-russian-oil">Russian crude cargoes at a sharp discount</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1501212142221017094"}"></div></p>
<p>Since oil is a relatively fungible global commodity, at least some of Russia’s crude exports to Europe and other countries that may choose to join the U.S. and U.K. in imposing oil sanctions may wind up being sent somewhere else. That would free up other supplies from sources such as Norway, Angola and Saudi Arabia to be redirected back to Europe. </p>
<p>Russia’s oil has high sulfur and other impurities, so refining it requires specialized equipment – it can’t be sold just anywhere. But other Asian buyers can take it, including India and Thailand. </p>
<h2>Can European nations get oil from other sources?</h2>
<p>Europe and the U.S. could simultaneously increase crude oil sales from their national strategic stocks to lessen the blow of any further restrictions on Russian crude oil imports to the G-7. The U.S. is already selling 1.3 million barrels per day from its <a href="https://theconversation.com/biden-taps-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-what-is-it-where-did-it-come-from-and-does-the-us-still-need-it-172473">Strategic Petroleum Reserve</a> and has said it will increase these flows. China has also <a href="https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-01-14/exclusive-china-agreed-with-u-s-on-oil-reserves-release-near-lunar-new-year-sources">released oil from its national strategic stocks</a> to help ease oil prices. </p>
<p>Still, determining how much strategic oil to release at once depends on perceptions about the duration of the conflict and whether it could escalate beyond Ukraine. Those are both unknowns.</p>
<p>The U.S. and other G-7 members also could ask Middle East countries to relax <a href="https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/Research/878ae010/the-future-of-saudi-price-discrimination-the-effect-of-russian-production.pdf">destination restrictions</a> on their crude oil shipments, and press countries like China and India to redirect other oils of similar quality to Russian oil back to Europe if and when they increase their purchases from Moscow. Such steps would help ameliorate additional upward price impact of any future G-7 restrictions on Russian oil imports. </p>
<p>It’s not certain that China and India would cooperate, but it would be in their interests to do so. They are major oil importers and would not want to see higher crude oil prices.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450815/original/file-20220308-21-1yrolwb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Broad view of oil tanks, refinery buildings and tall smokestacks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450815/original/file-20220308-21-1yrolwb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450815/original/file-20220308-21-1yrolwb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450815/original/file-20220308-21-1yrolwb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450815/original/file-20220308-21-1yrolwb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=266&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450815/original/file-20220308-21-1yrolwb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450815/original/file-20220308-21-1yrolwb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450815/original/file-20220308-21-1yrolwb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=335&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A panoramic drone view of the Novokuibyshevsk Refinery in Russia’s Samara region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/panoramic-drone-view-of-the-premises-of-the-novokuibyshevsk-news-photo/1238834584">Yegor Aleyev\TASS via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How are reduced oil purchases from Russia likely to affect world oil prices?</h2>
<p>One effect is already clear: Markets have anticipated possible energy sanctions on Russia by discounting Russian crude. Refiners who aren’t obligated by firm legal contracts to take delivery of it are <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/030422-russian-refineries-start-to-feel-impact-of-buyers-shunning-oil-products">shunning spot, or non-contract, cargoes exiting Russian ports</a>. </p>
<p>One trade publication estimates that this has resulted in <a href="https://www.energyintel.com/0000017f-4cb2-d78a-af7f-efb6b0b70000#:%7E:text=An%20already%20tight%20oil%20market,fallen%201%20million%20b%2Fd.">roughly 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil failing to find buyers</a> The result is a large-scale disruption in global oil supplies that is already boosting prices, even though the physical oil is still available in principle. </p>
<p>There’s a limit to how much oil is available to replace lost Russian crude exports. Most exporters are <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/14/business/energy-environment/oil-prices-opec.html">maxed out in terms of crude oil production</a>, but a few of the largest Middle East producers could surge their output in the short term to put an extra 1 million barrels per day or more onto the market. </p>
<p>The Biden administration has been continuing talks with Iran to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-07/how-an-iran-nuclear-deal-could-affect-oil-trade-and-security?sref=Hjm5biAW">restart the nuclear deal</a> suspended by President Trump in 2018. If that happens, Iranian oil exports might rise from 800,000 barrels per day now to about 1.5 million barrels per day within three months or so. </p>
<p>But Russia is a party to the nuclear deal and has demanded guarantees that its economic trade with Iran will be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/iran-nuclear-talks-rocked-by-russian-demand-for-sanctions-exemption">exempt from any sanctions associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine</a>. That demand has slowed diplomatic progress. </p>
<p>Saudi Arabia has access to large stores of crude oil in its vast global tank system and its tankers that float at sea. In 2014, when Russia invaded Crimea, U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf held over 70 million barrels in storage near <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/UAE-Expands-Strategic-Oil-Hub-To-Counter-Iranian-Threat.html">Fujairah</a> in the United Arab Emirates. They did this as a threat to Russia that a price war would ensue if Russian troops moved beyond that peninsula. Russia stayed in Crimea, so the oil was not released. </p>
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<p>The Saudis have launched price wars that hurt Russia’s economy before, in <a href="https://www.rbth.com/history/331825-saudi-arabia-oil-crisis-ussr-collapse">1986</a>, <a href="https://money.cnn.com/1998/11/30/economy/oilprices/">1998</a>, 2009 and again briefly in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/23/saudi-arabia-is-launching-an-oil-price-war-thats-risky/">2020</a>. But today’s oil market conditions make a price war an unlikely outcome, given the existing tight balance between supply and demand. The only scenario that could trigger a price war now would be if global demand were to contract suddenly because of a recession.</p>
<p><em>This is an update of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-wealthy-nations-stop-buying-russian-oil-178008">article</a> originally published on March 1, 2022.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178868/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amy Myers Jaffe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Oil revenues are crucial to Russia’s economy. The US only accounts for a small fraction of them, so banning Russian oil imports has mainly symbolic value.Amy Myers Jaffe, Research professor, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1787072022-03-08T20:55:52Z2022-03-08T20:55:52ZWhy gasoline prices have soared to record highs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450775/original/file-20220308-17145-wp6wh3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C30%2C3935%2C2981&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some motorists are willing to pay more for the price of gas. Others are considering trading in gas-guzzling cars for more efficient vehicles. The price of gas at a Petro Canada gasoline station in Ajax, Ont., on March 7, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Doug Ives</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/why-gasoline-prices-have-soared-to-record-highs" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Canadians are finally returning to the office after two years of pandemic restrictions, and they’re are making March Break and summer travel plans. They are also being confronted by record-high <a href="https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Canada/gasoline_prices/">gasoline prices</a> at the pumps, leaving them wondering: Why is gasoline so expensive? How long will they stay this way? What can be done?</p>
<p>There are obvious and not-so-obvious answers to these difficult questions. The key driver of gasoline prices is the price of a barrel of oil and, like other commodities, oil prices are driven by the dynamics of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.06.033">supply and demand</a>. Right now, supply is very tight.</p>
<p>During the pandemic, <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fa45234-bac5-4d89-a532-768960f99d07/Oil_2021-PDF.pdf">oil use plummeted and then slowly recovered</a>. It is only now reaching pre-pandemic levels. In response to that demand plunge, companies <a href="https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/canada-energy-future/2020/covid/index.html">mothballed new exploration projects</a> and <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-april-2020">reduced the production of current ones</a>, cutting supply drastically.</p>
<p>As economic recovery began, companies could not easily ramp up production. Yet prices <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/748209/wcs-oil-price-historical/">remained low</a> for most of that period. Moreover, oil wells are not water faucets: they take time to increase production. They also need the money and social license to do so, and both have been lacking of late.</p>
<h2>The recent history of oil production</h2>
<p>One problem is the increasing political risk of boosting production. Over the past several years, most governments have placed <a href="https://ukcop26.org/">large policy emphasis</a> on addressing the problem of climate change. Central to their efforts are <a href="https://www.list-nation.com/nations-pledge-to-stop-oil-and-gas-production/">reducing oil use and production</a> and <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/pricing-pollution-how-it-will-work.html">making continued use more expensive</a>. This raises the required return on investment projects, making some new sources uneconomic.</p>
<p>Second, banks, equity investors and other capital providers have become less willing to fund oil and gas projects. They increasingly insist on <a href="https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/working.papers/CRI69_FINAL.pdf">improved environmental, social and governance performance (ESG)</a> from the companies they invest in. </p>
<p>Some abstain from the oil and gas sector completely: no matter how well an oil company scores on the S and the G categories of ESG, they often score poorly on the E because of the nature of the industry. Consequently, <a href="https://www.internationalinvestment.net/news/4018684/sustainable-fund-flows-hit-record-q2#">capital acquisition</a> is hard.</p>
<hr>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sustainability-rankings-dont-always-identify-sustainable-companies-157023">Sustainability rankings don't always identify sustainable companies</a>
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<p>Third, regulatory risk — the risk that a regulation change will alter an industry — inhibits more oil and gas investment. Canada’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/kenney-kxl-dakota-access-biden-1.5645372">continuous saga of pipeline development</a> is a case in point. Presidents Obama, Trump and Biden have each reversed their predecessor’s position on the Keystone pipeline. </p>
<p>Other pipeline and oil and gas projects in Canada have been delayed or made more expensive by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423920000190">protracted negotiations</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/enbridge-says-additional-permit-requirements-will-delay-start-line-5-tunnel-2021-06-23/">more rigorous environmental reviews</a> and political obstacles. </p>
<p>Regulatory risk is also present internationally. In the United States, President Biden cancelled the Keystone pipeline and has <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/biden-administration-pausing-new-oil-and-gas-leases-amid-legal-battle-.html">outlawed new drilling leases</a> on federal land. Norway’s <a href="https://www.equinor.com/en/news/15mar2018-statoil.html">Equinor has pledged</a> to decrease its production of hydrocarbons. All of this has made increasing oil production difficult, and contributed to a supply crunch. </p>
<h2>Geopolitics and gas prices</h2>
<p>Adding to the supply crunch is the second component of high oil prices — a geopolitical crisis in a significant oil-producing area.</p>
<p>Russia is among the world’s <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/237115/oil-production-in-the-top-fifteen-countries-in-barrels-per-day/">top oil and gas producers</a>, habitually ranking in the top three. It <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.01.005">supplies Europe</a> with <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html">27 per cent of its oil and 40 per cent of its natural gas</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man fishing on the ice in front of a tall modern office tower." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450774/original/file-20220308-15-jwyv80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450774/original/file-20220308-15-jwyv80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450774/original/file-20220308-15-jwyv80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450774/original/file-20220308-15-jwyv80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450774/original/file-20220308-15-jwyv80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450774/original/file-20220308-15-jwyv80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450774/original/file-20220308-15-jwyv80.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Lakhta Centre, the headquarters of Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, covered by clouds in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Jan. 13, 2022. European governments are scrambling to reduce their energy dependency on Russia and bracing for potential disruption to critical natural gas supplies as the war in Ukraine sends prices to record highs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Dmitri Lovetsky)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many European countries <a href="https://prod.iea.org/reports/key-world-energy-statistics-2021/supply">remain dependent</a> on oil and gas for heating, transport and industrial production, and the war in Ukraine has helped expose that reality. </p>
<p>The invasion has generated shock, fear, and outrage. Public condemnation has been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/united-nations-russia-ukraine-vote">almost universal</a>. Economic sanctions on Russia have been powerful and announced with great fanfare. But the flow of Russian oil and gas has not yet stopped. Despite <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-plan-wean-itself-off-russian-gas-faster-2022-03-02/">plans to accelerate cuts to fossil fuel use</a>, Europe still <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.02.030">needs oil and gas</a>.</p>
<p>The invasion has brought an uncomfortable reality into bold relief. Efforts to reduce carbon consumption have strengthened the geopolitical hand of many oil producing countries. </p>
<p>Of the world’s top 10 oil producers, <a href="http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/ross/papers/articles/doesoil.pdf">only three are democracies</a>. They remain <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.11.004">overwhelmingly dependent</a> on oil and <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1203834/gcc-oil-contribution-to-fiscal-budget-by-country/">gas revenue</a> and are unencumbered by political, regulatory and capital constraints.</p>
<p>The less oil other sources produce, the more they can produce, often at fear-induced elevated prices that generate a revenue bonanza.</p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>What can be done to reduce prices and vulnerability? In the short term, a more diverse supply. </p>
<p>President Biden has released oil from the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-emergency-sale-30-million-barrels-crude-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve">strategic petroleum reserves</a>, repeatedly <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-call-opec-its-allies-increase-oil-production-cnbc-2021-08-11/">called on the OPEC cartel to increase production</a> and is even <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/us-reaches-venezuela-possible-russia-oil-embargo-rcna19033">making overtures to Venezuela</a>. </p>
<p>These will help bring prices down. But these are hardly the measures you would want to base your energy security on.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-war-in-ukraine-will-shape-canadas-energy-policy-and-climate-change-178599">How the war in Ukraine will shape Canada's energy policy — and climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Fortunately, there are promising signs of relief at the gas pump. The market will do its work — high gas prices will motivate more production, eventually bringing gas prices down. </p>
<p>Yet bubbling underneath will be the ongoing process of energy transition. As other energy sources grow in importance, calibrating the needed oil supply to demand will be even more difficult. Prices will come down, but they will be volatile: consumers should brace for unpredictable gas prices to become the norm. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A close up of an electric car being charged." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450772/original/file-20220308-11174-o8qbhy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/450772/original/file-20220308-11174-o8qbhy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450772/original/file-20220308-11174-o8qbhy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450772/original/file-20220308-11174-o8qbhy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450772/original/file-20220308-11174-o8qbhy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450772/original/file-20220308-11174-o8qbhy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/450772/original/file-20220308-11174-o8qbhy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dependence on oil influences foreign policy. As more alternative energy sources come online, they could alter the future of geopolitics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Martin Meissner)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The longer term answer acknowledges reality. The world will need oil and natural gas for decades yet. Alternative energy sources — wind, solar, more natural gas and nuclear — can <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas">reduce that dependence</a>, but will not eliminate it — at least not for a decade or more. The problem of being dependent on oil and gas imports will remain, particularly for Europe. </p>
<p>Oil prices are <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/crude-volatility/9780231178143">cyclic, volatile</a> and based on a combination of supply, demand and geopolitical forces. Winston Churchill famously noted that <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2006-03-01/ensuring-energy-security">security in oil supply lay in variety, and variety alone</a>. Extending his lesson, <a href="https://compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gec3.12580">cultivating a variety of carbon and non-carbon energy sources is the best way to reduce price volatility and energy vulnerability</a>. It is a lesson we are relearning now.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178707/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Detomasi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Oil supply is very tight, and the current geopolitical crisis involving Russia, one of the world’s largest oil producers, has pushed prices over the edge.David Detomasi, Associate Professor, Distinguished Faculty Fellow In International Business, Queen's University, OntarioLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1733952021-12-08T23:51:24Z2021-12-08T23:51:24ZA century of tragedy: How the car and gas industry knew about the health risks of leaded fuel but sold it for 100 years anyway<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436454/original/file-20211208-104971-1bl6u5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5227%2C3413&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">For decades, most gas sold in the U.S. contained a lead additive.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/rusty-petrol-pumps-on-a-gas-station-royalty-free-image/74166712?adppopup=true"> Per Magnus Persson via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>On the frosty morning of Dec. 9, 1921, in Dayton, Ohio, researchers at a General Motors lab poured a new fuel blend into one of their test engines. Immediately, the engine began running more quietly and putting out more power. </p>
<p>The new fuel was tetraethyl lead. With vast profits in sight – and very few public health regulations at the time – General Motors Co. rushed gasoline diluted with tetraethyl lead to market despite the known health risks of lead. They named it “Ethyl” gas.</p>
<p>It has been 100 years since that pivotal day in the development of leaded gasoline. As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=search_authors&mauthors=bill+kovarik&hl=en&oi=ao">historian of media and the environment</a>, I see this anniversary as a time to reflect on the role of public health advocates and environmental journalists in preventing profit-driven tragedy.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436459/original/file-20211208-17-xev9b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A black and white photo of a man in an old laboratory." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436459/original/file-20211208-17-xev9b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436459/original/file-20211208-17-xev9b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436459/original/file-20211208-17-xev9b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436459/original/file-20211208-17-xev9b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436459/original/file-20211208-17-xev9b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436459/original/file-20211208-17-xev9b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436459/original/file-20211208-17-xev9b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists working for General Motors discovered that tetraethyl lead could greatly improve the efficiency and longevity of engines in the 1920s.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of General Motors Institute</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lead and death</h2>
<p>By the early 1920s, <a href="https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/campaigns/get_the_lead_out/pdfs/health/Needleman_1999.pdf">the hazards of lead were well known</a> – even Charles Dickens and Benjamin Franklin had written about the dangers of lead poisoning.</p>
<p>When GM began selling leaded gasoline, public health experts <a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/om030621b">questioned its decision</a>. One called lead a serious menace to public health, and another called concentrated tetraethyl lead a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1021/om030245v">malicious and creeping</a>” poison. </p>
<p>General Motors and Standard Oil waved the warnings aside until disaster struck in October 1924. Two dozen workers at a refinery in Bayway, New Jersey, came down with severe lead poisoning from a poorly designed GM process. At first they became disoriented, then burst into insane fury and collapsed into hysterical laughter. Many had to be wrestled into straitjackets. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1924/10/27/archives/odd-gas-kills-one-makes-four-insane-stricken-at-work-in-standards.html">Six died, and the rest were hospitalized</a>. Around the same time, 11 more workers died and several dozen more were disabled at similar GM and DuPont plants across the U.S.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436460/original/file-20211208-149721-820cnb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A cartoon showing a man going insane after lead exposure." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436460/original/file-20211208-149721-820cnb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436460/original/file-20211208-149721-820cnb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436460/original/file-20211208-149721-820cnb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436460/original/file-20211208-149721-820cnb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=183&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436460/original/file-20211208-149721-820cnb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436460/original/file-20211208-149721-820cnb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436460/original/file-20211208-149721-820cnb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=230&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The news media began to criticize Standard Oil and raise concerns over Ethyl gas with articles and cartoons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">New York Evening Journal via The Library of Congress</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fighting the media</h2>
<p>The auto and gas industries’ attitude toward the media was hostile from the beginning. At Standard Oil’s first press conference about the 1924 Ethyl disaster, a spokesman claimed he had no idea what had happened while advising the media that “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1924/10/27/archives/odd-gas-kills-one-makes-four-insane-stricken-at-work-in-standards.html">Nothing ought to be said about this matter in the public interest</a>.”</p>
<p><a href="https://billkovarik.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Ethyl.Controversy.Kovarik.dissertation.pdf">More facts emerged in the months after the event</a>, and by the spring of 1925, in-depth newspaper coverage started to appear, framing the issue as public health versus industrial progress. A New York World article asked Yale University gas warfare expert Yandell Henderson and GM’s tetraethyl lead researcher Thomas Midgley whether leaded gasoline would poison people. Midgley joked about public health concerns and falsely insisted that leaded gasoline was the only way to raise fuel power. To demonstrate the negative impacts of leaded fuel, Henderson estimated that 30 tons of lead would fall in a dusty rain on New York’s Fifth Avenue every year. </p>
<p>Industry officials were outraged over the coverage. A GM public relations history from 1948 called the New York World’s coverage “a campaign of publicity against the public sale of gasoline containing the company’s antiknock compound.” GM also claimed that the media labeled leaded gas “loony gas” when, in fact, it was <a href="https://billkovarik.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Ethyl.Controversy.Kovarik.dissertation.pdf">the workers themselves who named it as such</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436735/original/file-20211209-141178-1klcf7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An old advertisement for Ethyl brand gas." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436735/original/file-20211209-141178-1klcf7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436735/original/file-20211209-141178-1klcf7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436735/original/file-20211209-141178-1klcf7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436735/original/file-20211209-141178-1klcf7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436735/original/file-20211209-141178-1klcf7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436735/original/file-20211209-141178-1klcf7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436735/original/file-20211209-141178-1klcf7s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Leaded gas was marketed as Ethyl, a joint brand of Standard Oil and General Motors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://hdl.loc.gov/loc.pnp/mrg.05719">John Margolies/Library of Congress</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Attempts at regulation</h2>
<p>In May 1925, the U.S. Public Health Service asked GM, Standard Oil and public health scientists to attend an open hearing on leaded gasoline in Washington. The issue, according to GM and Standard, involved refinery safety, not public health. Frank Howard of Standard Oil argued that tetraethyl lead was diluted at over 1,000 to 1 in gasoline and therefore posed no risk to the average person. </p>
<p>Public health scientists <a href="https://billkovarik.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Ethyl.Controversy.Kovarik.dissertation.pdf">challenged the need for leaded gasoline</a>. Alice Hamilton, a physician at Harvard, said, “There are thousands of things better than lead to put in gasoline.” And she was right. There were plenty of well-known alternatives at the time, and some were even patented by GM. But no one in the press knew how to find that information, and the Public Health Service, under pressure from the auto and oil industries, canceled a second day of public hearings that would have discussed safer gasoline additives like ethanol, iron carbonyl and catalytic reforming. </p>
<p>By 1926, the Public Health Service announced that they had “no good reason” to prohibit leaded gasoline, even though <a href="https://billkovarik.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Ethyl.Controversy.Kovarik.dissertation.pdf">internal memos complained that their research</a> was “half baked.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436456/original/file-20211208-68670-1nmlwhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph showing that blood lead levels closely follow lead emissions from cars." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436456/original/file-20211208-68670-1nmlwhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/436456/original/file-20211208-68670-1nmlwhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436456/original/file-20211208-68670-1nmlwhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436456/original/file-20211208-68670-1nmlwhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436456/original/file-20211208-68670-1nmlwhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436456/original/file-20211208-68670-1nmlwhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/436456/original/file-20211208-68670-1nmlwhl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As leaded gasoline fell out of use, lead levels in people’s blood fell as well.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.epa.gov/lead">U.S. EPA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The rise and fall of leaded gasoline</h2>
<p>Leaded gasoline went on to dominate fuel markets worldwide. Researchers have estimated that decades of burning leaded gasoline caused <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2011/10/393292-phase-out-leaded-petrol-brings-huge-health-and-cost-benefits-un-backed-study">millions of premature deaths, enormous declines in IQ levels</a> and many other associated social problems.</p>
<p>In the 1960s and 1970s, the public health case against leaded gasoline reemerged. A California Institute of Technology geochemist, Clair Cameron Patterson, was finding it difficult to measure lead isotopes in his laboratory because lead from gasoline was everywhere and his samples were constantly being contaminated. Patterson created the first “clean room” to carry on his isotope work, but he also published a 1965 paper, “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00039896.1965.10664229">Contaminated and Natural Lead Environments of Man</a>,” and said that “the average resident of the U.S. is being subjected to severe chronic lead insult.”</p>
<p>In parallel, by the 1970s, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency decided that leaded gasoline had to be phased out eventually because it clogged catalytic converters on cars and led to more air pollution. Leaded gasoline manufacturers objected, but the objections were <a href="https://casetext.com/case/ethyl-corp-v-epa">overruled by an appeals court</a>. </p>
<p>The public health concerns continued to build in the 1970s and 1980s when University of Pittsburgh pediatrician Herbert Needleman ran studies linking high levels of lead in children with low IQ and other developmental problems. Both Patterson and Needleman faced strong partisan attacks from the lead industry, which <a href="http://www.beacon.org/Toxic-Truth-P662.aspx">claimed that their research was fraudulent</a>. </p>
<p>Both were eventually vindicated when, in 1996, the U.S. officially banned the sale of leaded gasoline for public health reasons. Europe was next in the 2000s, followed by developing nations after that. In August 2021, the last country in the world to sell leaded gas, Algeria, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/finally-the-end-of-leaded-gas">banned it</a>.</p>
<p>A century of leaded gasoline has taken millions of lives and to this day leaves the soil in many cities from <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1906092116">New Orleans</a> to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2102791118">London</a> toxic.</p>
<p>The leaded gasoline story provides a practical example of how industry’s profit-driven decisions – when unsuccessfully challenged and regulated – can cause serious and long-term harm. It takes individual public health leaders and strong media coverage of health and environmental issues to counter these risks. </p>
<p>[<em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173395/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Kovarik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Burning leaded gasoline releases toxic lead into the environment, and for 100 years people around the world have been dealing with the health effects. How did a century of toxic fuel come to be?Bill Kovarik, Professor of Communication, Radford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1617292021-07-20T12:15:12Z2021-07-20T12:15:12ZEnergy pipelines are controversial now, but one of the first big ones helped win World War II<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411565/original/file-20210715-23-j920co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C3%2C2568%2C1902&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The "Big Inch" oil pipeline at Phoenixville, Pennsylvania, around 1943. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/phoenixville-pa-a-congressional-committee-was-told-that-news-photo/515185136">Betttman via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Oil and gas pipelines have become flashpoints in discussions of climate change. From the <a href="https://atlanticcoastpipeline.com/">Atlantic coast</a> to the <a href="https://www.daplpipelinefacts.com/">Dakotas</a>, pipelines that would deliver fossil fuels to customers have sparked protests and legal challenges. The <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/09/1004908006/developer-abandons-keystone-xl-pipeline-project-ending-decade-long-battle">Keystone XL pipeline</a>, which was designed to carry oil from Alberta tar sands to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55773243">roiled U.S.-Canadian relations for a decade</a> before it was finally canceled in 2021. </p>
<p>Amid these debates, it’s easy to forget how heavily the U.S. economy relies on existing energy pipelines. In 2020 some 84,000 miles (135,000 kilometers) of <a href="https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/data-and-statistics/pipeline/annual-report-mileage-hazardous-liquid-or-carbon-dioxide-systems">long-distance pipelines</a> carried crude oil, while another 64,000 miles (103,000 kilometers) of pipe moved refined products, including gasoline and jet fuel. </p>
<p>These systems typically draw attention only when they <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-30/30-years-of-oil-and-gas-pipeline-spills-mapped?sref=Hjm5biAW">leak</a> or are damaged. For example, in May 2021 <a href="https://www.vox.com/recode/22428774/ransomeware-pipeline-colonial-darkside-gas-prices">the Colonial Pipeline</a> made headlines when a cyberattack shut it down, interrupting gasoline supplies along the East Coast.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="vintage poster depicts World War II fighter pilots and urges Americans to conserve fuel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=794&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411566/original/file-20210715-32735-1jwuuf1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=998&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">World War II poster produced by the Petroleum Industry War Council.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/world-war-ii-era-poster-features-a-bomber-crew-in-flight-news-photo/120207965">Photo Quest via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ironically, this network originated as the solution to a pressing energy problem and was initiated over objections from the oil industry. In 1942 Germany’s U-boats <a href="https://www.basicbooks.com/titles/ed-offley/the-burning-shore/9780465029617/">brought World War II to the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts</a>, sinking dozens of merchant ships, including oil tankers. That damage spurred construction of the first large U.S. pipelines, which fueled the Allied war effort.</p>
<h2>Tankers at risk</h2>
<p>Petroleum currently supplies <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/">about one-third of U.S. energy consumption</a>. Much of it is delivered by pipeline. It would take at least <a href="https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/faqs/general-pipeline-faqs">750 tanker trucks per day</a>, loading up and moving out every two minutes, working 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to carry as much oil as even a modest pipeline. </p>
<p>In the 1800s much U.S.-produced oil came from wells in Pennsylvania and Ohio. However, when prospectors struck oil in <a href="https://www.lamar.edu/spindletop-gladys-city/spindletop-history.html">Spindletop, Texas, in 1901</a>, the industry shifted to the Lone Star State. </p>
<p>These fields produced much of the gasoline that fueled the automobile revolution, using <a href="https://www.kunc.org/business/2014-08-05/the-strange-history-of-the-american-pipeline">narrow-bore</a> pipes to move crude over distances of a few miles from wells to refineries or railroads. To get oil to big refineries in the Northeast, Texas companies relied on tankers that sailed through the Gulf of Mexico and up the Atlantic coast. By the late 1930s these ships transported <a href="https://www.nist.gov/blogs/taking-measure/big-inch-fueling-americas-wwii-war-effort">95% of American petroleum products</a>. </p>
<p>Nazi strategists knew that sinking ships directly off the coast would terrify many Americans. Immediately after the U.S. entered World War II in December 1941, U-boats launched attacks on American coastal shipping. In February 1942 alone, <a href="https://www.nist.gov/blogs/taking-measure/big-inch-fueling-americas-wwii-war-effort">Nazi subs sank 12 tankers off the East Coast</a>.</p>
<p>To avoid the U-boats, oil companies tried moving crude by rail and barge. This limited delivery to 140,000 barrels a day, less than half of the 300,000 barrels needed to meet wartime demand at East coast refineries.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/m0fyIvLhe54?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">German submarines sank more than 50 U.S. ships in the Gulf of Mexico during World War II, seeking to disrupt shipments to Allied nations in Europe.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Piping replaces shipping</h2>
<p>In the spring of 1942, Interior Secretary Harold Ickes proposed <a href="http://lcweb2.loc.gov/master/pnp/habshaer/tx/tx0900/tx0944/data/tx0944data.pdf">constructing a large-diameter war emergency pipeline</a>. The oil industry balked: It cost 16 cents a barrel to send oil by sea from Texas to New York, and executives argued that building pipelines would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1941/07/23/archives/oil-pipeline-now-is-urged-by-ickes-70000000-system-to-bring-250000.html?searchResultPosition=1">double the cost</a>. When industrial and military needs for petroleum grew desperate, the companies relented, partnering with the government to build the new pipeline.</p>
<p>Engineers designed a giant conduit capable of supplying oil needed for the war effort, far larger than existing 8-inch lines. Workers dubbed the 24-inch-diameter pipeline the “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Inch#cite_note-Klein_2013_499-25">Big Inch</a>.” </p>
<p>Construction began in June 1942. Government officials chose an inland route, avoiding coastal states that might be vulnerable to enemy air attacks. The Big Inch was constructed in two sections: one north from Texas to Illinois and another from Indiana eastward. A second, 20-inch-diameter line, the “Little Big Inch,” was added in 1943.</p>
<p>These became the world’s longest pipelines, snaking across 1,340 miles (2,150 kilometers). The US$146 million project was <a href="http://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,779839,00.html">one of the most expensive initiatives</a> underwritten by the federal government during World War II. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411336/original/file-20210714-15-a6k834.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ralph K. Davies, George Hull, W. Alton Jones and Burt Hull at the Big Inch opening, Feb. 19, 1943. All four men were oil industry executives who took on roles with the federal government during World War II.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:“Big_Inch”_opening.jpg#/media/File:“Big_Inch”_opening.jpg">Petroleum Administration for War</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Oil began flowing in August 1943. Over the next two years, these two lines delivered 300,000 gallons of oil per day to refineries in New Jersey and Philadelphia, which was then shipped overseas. The U.S. ultimately supplied <a href="http://historynewsnetwork.org/article/339">6 billion of the 7 billion barrels of oil</a> used by Allied forces during the war. In 1945 Ickes called the Big Inch one of the country’s “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1945/01/27/archives/little-big-inch-one-year-old.html?searchResultPosition=1">most potent weapons of war</a>.”</p>
<p>The Big Inch was featured in <a href="http://lcweb2.loc.gov/master/pnp/habshaer/tx/tx0900/tx0944/data/tx0944data.pdf">newsreel shorts</a> with titles such as “Pipe Dream Comes True – Oil!” and “Oil is Blood.” But although it demonstrated that large volumes of oil could be moved cross-country, it didn’t capture the public imagination like the atomic bomb, radar or penicillin. </p>
<p>In 1947 the federal government sold the pipeline to the Texas Eastern Transmission Corporation. It <a href="https://www.kunc.org/business/2014-08-05/the-strange-history-of-the-american-pipeline">still carries natural gas</a> from Texas to the Northeast.</p>
<p>Long-distance pipeline construction <a href="https://www.api.org/%7E/media/files/oil-and-natural-gas/ppts/other-files/decadefinal.pdf?la=en">accelerated in the 1950s and 1960s</a> as the technology improved and oil demand grew. More than half the existing U.S. fuel pipeline network was <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/aging-pipelines-raise-concerns-1478128942">built before 1970</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing pipelines from Texas to mid-Atlantic coast." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/411337/original/file-20210714-19-oq39nb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=618&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Big Inch and Little Inch pipelines.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://lcweb2.loc.gov/master/pnp/habshaer/tx/tx0900/tx0944/data/tx0944data.pdf">Historic American Engineering Record/National Park Service</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate change, the next target</h2>
<p>Today the enemy is climate change, and pipelines are in the crosshairs as part of the fossil fuel production and delivery system. Pipeline projects also are more controversial because they now are subject to <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-proposal-to-weaken-project-reviews-threatens-the-magna-carta-of-environmental-law-93258">environmental impact assessments</a>. These reviews analyze how building the pipelines could affect local water supplies, wildlife, nearby historic sites nearby and other facets of the communities they pass through. </p>
<p>Debate over the Keystone XL pipeline shows how the framework for considering pipeline projects has expanded. <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/06/09/1004908006/developer-abandons-keystone-xl-pipeline-project-ending-decade-long-battle">Opposition</a> to the $8 billion, 1,200-mile pipeline focused on safety concerns, its route across Indigenous lands, destruction of boreal forest and the large carbon footprint of oil from tar sands. </p>
<p>The latest controversial project is the <a href="https://www.enbridge.com/projects-and-infrastructure/public-awareness/minnesota-projects/line-3-replacement-project">Enbridge Pipeline 3 replacement</a>, which would replace 337 miles of an existing pipeline running through Minnesota. Opponents argue that the project, which would double the old line’s capacity to carry tar sands oil from Alberta to the U.S., threatens Minnesota wetlands, violates the treaty rights of Indigenous people in its path and will help <a href="https://www.stopline3.org/#intro">perpetuate tar sand extraction.</a></p>
<p>The Big Inch and its successors were 20th-century technological accomplishments, but addressing climate change means turning America’s engineering talents to equally ambitious renewable energy projects. As a <a href="https://engineering.virginia.edu/faculty/w-bernard-carlson">historian of technology</a>, I look forward to seeing new solutions emerge. What equivalents of the Big Inch will help win the war against climate change?</p>
<p>[<em>Understand new developments in science, health and technology, each week.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-understand">Subscribe to The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161729/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>W. Bernard Carlson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Proposals for new oil and gas pipelines can generate intense debate today, but during World War II the US built an oil pipeline more than 1,300 miles long in less than a year.W. Bernard Carlson, Professor of Humanities and Chair of the Department of Engineering and Society, University of VirginiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1617312021-06-15T12:26:10Z2021-06-15T12:26:10ZWith Ford’s electric F-150 pickup, the EV transition shifts into high gear<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405774/original/file-20210610-15-1vxmnj3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C7380%2C4142&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Ford calls its all-electric F-150 Lightning "the truck of the future."</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/05/19/all-electric-ford-f-150-lightning.html">Ford</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When President Joe Biden took Ford’s electric F-150 Lightning pickup for a <a href="https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/ford/2021/05/19/biden-ford-f-150-lightning-track-dearborn/5152825001/">test drive</a> in Dearborn, Michigan, in May 2021, the event was more than a White House photo op. It marked a new phase in an accelerating shift from gas-powered cars and trucks to electric vehicles, or EVs. </p>
<p>In recent months, global auto manufacturers have released plans to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40505671">electrify their vehicle fleets by 2030 or 2035</a>, setting up a race to see who can most quickly shift entirely away from producing vehicles <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g35562831/ev-plans-automakers-timeline/">powered by gasoline</a>. </p>
<p>Like Biden, former President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/trump-biden-both-boast-about-creating-auto-industry-jobs-differ-n1240000">promised to create jobs in the auto industry</a>. But Trump sought to do it by perpetuating a fossil-fueled system that is the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks">largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions</a>. Automakers benefited from some Trump policies in the short term, including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-emissions/trump-finalizes-rollback-of-obama-era-vehicle-fuel-efficiency-standards-idUSKBN21I25S">the rollback of fuel economy standards</a>. Now, however, they seem to be embracing the challenge of competing globally in a climate-constrained future. </p>
<p>As an <a href="https://bcb47.wixsite.com/bcb4">environmental historian</a>, I see this moment as pivotal because unlike EVs from manufacturers like Toyota or Tesla, the electric F-150 does not entirely rely on green consumer choice. It places the electric vehicle transition squarely in the hands of mass-market consumers who don’t choose cars based on environmental considerations, and who are buying far more light trucks – pickups, sport utility vehicles and minivans – than cars today.</p>
<p><iframe id="GT7dC" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/GT7dC/1/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>The century of gasoline</h2>
<p>America’s 20th-century affair with gas-powered cars was not inevitable. From 1890 through about 1915, vehicles powered by <a href="https://theconversation.com/energy-transitions-are-nothing-new-but-the-one-underway-is-unprecedented-and-urgent-104821">horses, coal, electric batteries and gasoline</a> jockeyed for position on U.S. streets. And electric-powered vehicles had some clear advantages. Many consumers feared that gas-powered cars were prone to explode, and there was no nationwide fueling infrastructure. </p>
<p>But World War I combined with a moment of technological convergence that favored the internal combustion engine. Massive new petroleum discoveries in Texas, and later in the Middle East, produced a glut of oil, just as electric lighting replaced kerosene lamps. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405777/original/file-20210610-11008-dxhvtk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Soldiers assess a plank bridge over a gully." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405777/original/file-20210610-11008-dxhvtk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405777/original/file-20210610-11008-dxhvtk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405777/original/file-20210610-11008-dxhvtk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405777/original/file-20210610-11008-dxhvtk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405777/original/file-20210610-11008-dxhvtk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405777/original/file-20210610-11008-dxhvtk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405777/original/file-20210610-11008-dxhvtk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In a photo captioned ‘Another fine example of modern engineering,’ members of the 1919 Transcontinental Motor Convoy decide whether a rickety bridge will support their vehicles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/research/online-documents/1919-transcontinental-motor-convoy">Eisenhower Presidential Library</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1919, Capt. Dwight D. Eisenhower <a href="https://www.eisenhowerlibrary.gov/research/online-documents/1919-transcontinental-motor-convoy">joined a small convoy</a> that crossed the U.S. in gas-powered military vehicles to test Army mobility. It took them 62 days – clear evidence that <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-world-war-i-ushered-in-the-century-of-oil-74585">modern vehicles required better roads</a>. </p>
<p>By World War II, gasoline-powered personal transportation and road-building to support it had become planks of American economic growth. In the 1950s, President Eisenhower furthered that commitment with the construction of the <a href="https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/interstate/history.cfm">most extensive system of highways</a> the world had ever seen.</p>
<h2>Car culture and the pickup truck</h2>
<p>Americans’ particular contribution to 20th-century transportation patterns was making automobiles part of a competitive consumer marketplace. Starting in the 1950s, a complex economy of easy financing and advertising drove consumers to buy new and buy often. Every aspect of a car was a potential marketing point, from <a href="https://www.motorcities.org/story-of-the-week/2020/the-1958-buicks-were-fins-and-chrome-models">chrome styling</a> to <a href="https://www.hotrod.com/articles/hemi-engines-ford-chevy-oldsmobile-ardun-big-small-block/">hemi-powered hot rod engines</a> and more modern options like <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/car-maintenance/how-to-add-remote-start-to-your-car/">remote starting</a> and <a href="https://www.motorbiscuit.com/5-family-friendly-suvs-with-fab-rear-seat-entertainment-systems/">rear-seat theaters</a>.</p>
<p>Another uniquely American marketing achievement was framing trucks – utilitarian vehicles designed for work – as rides that could also serve consumers. Advertisers used themes of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LdP-xTIipXc">grit and power</a> to sell trucks, depicted in the muddy expanses of western landscapes, to suburban drivers. </p>
<p>Federal fuel efficiency standards enacted in 1978 unintentionally reinforced the idea of <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-federal-government-came-to-control-your-cars-fuel-economy-94467">trucks as a consumer product</a>. These <a href="https://www.transportation.gov/mission/sustainability/corporate-average-fuel-economy-cafe-standards">Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards</a> classified pickups as “light trucks,” along with sport utility vehicles and minivans, and set separate fuel efficiency standards for them. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405779/original/file-20210610-28-nt9fmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Biden at the wheel of an electric F-150." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405779/original/file-20210610-28-nt9fmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405779/original/file-20210610-28-nt9fmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405779/original/file-20210610-28-nt9fmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405779/original/file-20210610-28-nt9fmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405779/original/file-20210610-28-nt9fmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405779/original/file-20210610-28-nt9fmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405779/original/file-20210610-28-nt9fmq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">President Joe Biden, a self-described ‘car guy,’ drives a test model F-150 Lightning truck at Ford’s Dearborn Development Center on May 18, 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Biden/f6ff6bb8cf8e4da09cd19c60c109705a/photo">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By the year 2000, pickup trucks were U.S. automakers’ <a href="https://www.manufacturing.net/automotive/news/21415625/gm-profit-surges-on-truck-sales">most profitable models</a>, and manufacturers were looking for ways to make these vehicles <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/199980/us-truck-sales-since-1951/">more powerful and luxurious</a>. Ford’s F-150 became the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-ford-f-150-became-king-of-cars-96255">best-selling vehicle in the nation</a> in 1982 and held that spot for the next four decades.</p>
<h2>Lightning in a bottle?</h2>
<p>Modern hybrid and electric vehicles emerged in the 1990s, driven by Japanese manufacturers’ innovations. Early versions – the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Insight">Honda Insight</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius">Toyota Prius</a>, and later the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf">Nissan Leaf</a> – allowed consumers to choose automobiles that burned much less gasoline, or none in the case of the Leaf. Options like these had been unavailable during the gas crises of the 1970s. </p>
<p>While the Prius, which was the first mass-produced hybrid electric vehicle, will likely be remembered as transformational in the electric transition, <a href="https://www.tesla.com/">Tesla</a> was the first manufacturer to take the possibility of an alternative vehicle and combine it with style and prestige. Tesla brought bling and sex appeal to early EVs, many of which had functioned more like their golf-cart cousins.</p>
<p>Today’s hybrids and EVs aren’t just little sedans. Manufacturers including Honda, Toyota and Ford offer popular hybrid SUVs, and all-electric versions are entering the market. And now the electric F-150 breaks new ground. It’s targeted at small businesses and corporate customers, particularly construction and mining companies, which purchase many trucks. These buyers are the auto industry’s bread and butter.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Car-buying guide Edmunds suggests thinking of the electric F-150 as “a battery you can drive.”</span></figcaption>
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<p>To satisfy their needs, the Lightning has a battery large enough to travel <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/g36492134/ford-f-150-lightning-things-to-know/">more than 200 miles per charge</a> (320 kilometers), and paying a bit more gets customers over 300 miles (480 kilometers). An <a href="https://www.ford.com/trucks/f150/f150-lightning/2022/">electric motor on each axle</a> provides faster acceleration than gas-powered models and enough torque to tow 10,000 pounds (4,535 kilograms). </p>
<p>In a unique feature, the truck’s battery pack can be configured to produce 9.6 kilowatts of power – enough to <a href="https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/g36492134/ford-f-150-lightning-things-to-know/">run an average home for three days</a> during an outage. The Lightning also has 11 outlets that enable it to double as a worksite power station for charging tools and gear. </p>
<p>The base model has a <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/most-radical-thing-about-ford-f-150-lightning-cost/">sticker price just under US$40,000</a>, and the Lightning qualifies for a <a href="https://www.cars.com/articles/which-electric-cars-are-still-eligible-for-the-7500-federal-tax-credit-429824/">$7,500 federal tax break</a> for electric vehicle purchases that the Trump administration <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-budget-autonomous/trump-budget-proposes-ending-electric-vehicle-tax-credit-idUSKBN1QS27Q">tried unsuccessfully to end</a>. Combined, those factors can make it <a href="https://www.motor1.com/news/508418/ford-f150-lightning-price-cheapest/">cheaper to buy than its gas-powered sibling</a>.</p>
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<p>Ford’s 1908 Model T may look like ancient history by comparison, but experts chose it as the <a href="https://europe.autonews.com/article/20000103/ANE/1030709/model-t-beats-mini-to-the-car-of-the-century-award">car of the 20th century</a> because it put gas-powered cars within reach for mass consumers. Judging from early consumer buzz, the electric F-150 could play a similar role for EVs today. Ford received <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/09/business/ford-jim-farley-electric-vehicles.html">100,000 preorders in three weeks</a> for the new model, which is scheduled to start rolling off the assembly line in spring 2022. </p>
<p>As one analyst put it, “If this truck is successful, it means <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/18/todayspaper/quotation-of-the-day-top-selling-us-vehicle-could-be-make-or-break-in-bid-to-cut-emissions.html">you can sell an electric version of any vehicle</a>. It could be the domino that tumbles over the rest of the market for EVs.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161731/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian C. Black does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ford’s electric F-150 pickup won’t roll off assembly lines until early 2022, but the company has received thousands of preorders already for a vehicle aimed at the mass market, not eco-buyers.Brian C. Black, Distinguished Professor of History and Environmental Studies, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1583802021-05-21T12:24:36Z2021-05-21T12:24:36ZHow electric cars can advance environmental justice: By putting low-income and racially diverse drivers behind the wheel<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401958/original/file-20210520-19-1q6i4xj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=44%2C22%2C5004%2C3303&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Electric cars charging at Washington, DC's Union Station.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/EarthDayEVgo/70529e01dbd2449c81edf1ff71bacaf0/photo">AP Photo/Susan Walsh</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The global auto industry has begun a <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billions-poured-into-electric-vehicle-companies-but-much-more-will-be-needed-before-the-auto-industry-changes-11615834509">historic shift</a> from gas- and diesel-fueled cars to electric vehicles. President Biden’s <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/03/31/fact-sheet-the-american-jobs-plan/">infrastructure plan</a> seeks to speed up this transition by requesting billions of dollars to modernize the electric grid and build 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations. </p>
<p>Evidence shows that many Americans are eager to transition to EVs and participate in a clean energy economy. In a recent <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/cr-survey-shows-strong-interest-in-evs/">nationally representative consumer survey</a>, 71% of drivers surveyed said they were interested in getting an electric car. But 48% said that lack of access to public charging infrastructure was holding them back, and 43% cited vehicle cost as a disincentive. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.urbandrea.com/research">My research</a> focuses on ways to make cities more sustainable, healthy and equitable places to live. In my view, making EVs and charging infrastructure accessible to all drivers is crucial for achieving clean transportation and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00681-w">energy justice</a>.</p>
<h2>Who is hurt most by vehicle pollution?</h2>
<p>People of color bear disproportionate harms from fossil fuels. For example, Black people in the U.S. are more likely than white people to <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/pollution-poverty-people-color-living-industry/">live near oil refineries and petrochemical plants</a>. </p>
<p>People who live in these neighborhoods experience higher levels of exposure to <a href="https://environmentalintegrity.org/news/refineries-emit-benzene-in-amounts-above-epa-action-levels/">toxic emissions such as benzene, mercury and sulfuric acid</a> than those who don’t live near these industries. They also have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139122">higher rates of heart disease, cancer and asthma</a>. </p>
<p>Contamination from these facilities <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2015.12091421">drives down home prices</a>. Reduced property values make it <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20121656">hard for families to build wealth</a> or sell their homes and move away from toxic pollutants.</p>
<p>Burning gasoline in cars produces smog-causing <a href="https://www.lung.org/clean-air/outdoors/what-makes-air-unhealthy/particle-pollution">particulate pollution</a>, including fine particulates, referred to as PM2.5 because they are less than 2.5 microns wide – 30 times smaller than the width of a human hair. These particles penetrate deeply into humans’ lungs and enter their bloodstreams. PM2.5 exposure can trigger asthma and chronic bronchitis, and has been linked to increased mortality from <a href="https://www.lung.org/getmedia/99cc945c-47f2-4ba9-ba59-14c311ca332a/electric-vehicle-report.pdf">lung cancer and heart disease</a>. </p>
<p>People of color are <a href="https://consumerfed.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Auto-Insurance-Disparate-Racial-Impacts_Report.pdf">less likely to own cars</a> and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/04/07/who-relies-on-public-transit-in-the-u-s/">more likely to use public transit</a> than their white counterparts, so they generate a disproportionately small share of motor vehicle pollution. But they suffer disproportionately large impacts. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Black and Hispanic Americans are exposed to significantly more air pollution than they cause.</span></figcaption>
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<p>The American Lung Association reports that people of color are <a href="https://www.lung.org/getmedia/99cc945c-47f2-4ba9-ba59-14c311ca332a/electric-vehicle-report.pdf">3.5 times more likely than white people</a> to live in a county with a failing air quality grade. A groundbreaking 2019 study estimated that Black and Latino populations experience <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/13/6001">56% and 63% more pollution respectively than their activities cause</a>. In contrast, whites experience about 17% less air pollution exposure than their consumption causes. </p>
<p>Respiratory illness rates reflect this inequity. Black and Latino children in the U.S. are diagnosed with asthma at <a href="https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/NHIS/SHS/2018_SHS_Table_C-1.pdf">higher rates than white children</a>. Latino children are <a href="https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/omh/browse.aspx?lvl=4&lvlid=60">almost twice as likely to die from asthma</a> as white children. For Black children the death rate from asthma is <a href="https://minorityhealth.hhs.gov/omh/browse.aspx?lvl=4&lvlid=15">almost eight times higher</a> than for white children.</p>
<p>Recent polls show higher rates of concern about climate change among <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/race-and-climate-change/">Latinos (69%) and Black Americans (57%) compared with whites (49%)</a>. Among Latino voters, 85% believe it is <a href="https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/content/latinos_and_climate_change_factsheet_0317_refresh.pdf">important to reduce smog and air pollution</a> and want to see government action on this issue. </p>
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<h2>The economic benefits of driving an EV</h2>
<p>Electric vehicles have the potential to greatly reduce air pollution from transportation. They also are less expensive to own and operate over time. </p>
<p>New EVs are rapidly reaching price parity with gas-powered cars. A Tesla sedan <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/evs-offer-big-savings-over-traditional-gas-powered-cars/">costs less</a> than a comparable gas-powered BMW. Even when an EV’s sticker price is higher, significant <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/stories/electric-vs-gas-it-cheaper-drive-ev">savings on fuel and maintenance over time</a> more than make up the difference.</p>
<p>Maintenance and fuel savings from EVs offer great potential benefits for low-income households, which spend <a href="http://bakercenter.utk.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Equity-Impacts-of-Fuel-Economy-Report_final.pdf">a greater share of their income on fuel</a> than affluent households. Consumer Reports estimated in 2020 that owning an EV costs <a href="https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EV-Ownership-Cost-Final-Report-1.pdf">US$800 to $1,300 less</a> for every 15,000 miles driven than owning a conventional car. </p>
<p>EVs have far fewer moving parts than conventional cars because their power comes from a battery, not an internal combustion engine. As a result, they require less maintenance, saving drivers time, money and stress. Consumer Reports estimated that electric vehicles cost owners <a href="https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/EV-Ownership-Cost-Final-Report-1.pdf">about $4,600 less to repair and maintain </a> over the cars’ lifetime than conventional cars. </p>
<p>Before the pandemic, unexpected car repairs were the <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/%7E/media/assets/2015/10/emergency-savings-report-1_artfinal.pdf">most common financial shock</a> for U.S. households. Low-income families, which are disproportionately Black and Latino, were more likely to experience such shocks and took longer to recover than white families.</p>
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<h2>Creating better incentives and access</h2>
<p>Today 45 states and the District of Columbia provide incentives for buying certain gas-electric hybrid or electric vehicles. But these programs are <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/energy/state-electric-vehicle-incentives-state-chart.aspx">almost exclusively for new vehicles</a>, which means they help only a small subset of car buyers – mainly affluent consumers who buy new cars. For example, in the state of Washington, new cars make up <a href="https://www.autosinnovate.org/resources/insights/wa">fewer than 5% of registered vehicles</a> every year. </p>
<p>“<a href="https://energynews.us/2020/12/14/in-chicago-another-roadblock-for-would-be-ev-drivers-charging-deserts/">Charging deserts</a>” are one barrier to EV adoption. Advocates in California want CALGreen, the state’s green building code, to <a href="https://calmatters.org/commentary/my-turn/2021/02/update-green-building-codes-to-make-ev-charging-available-for-everyone/">require EV chargers in new multifamily housing</a>, which would make at-home charging more accessible to to urban and lower-income residents. </p>
<p>Drivers also need better access to public charging stations away from home. The New York City Department of Transportation has partnered with a local power utility to install <a href="https://apnews.com/article/new-york-city-new-york-canada-business-8b1bd4410763cb7ddcbb05af2435953c">100 charging stations at curbside locations</a> on city streets. </p>
<p>Expanded purchase incentives can help to steadily grow the number of EVs on the road. Currently, there are few subsidies available for buying used EVs, and none for people who lease their cars. Creating new financing programs for low- and moderate-income consumers who want to buy EVs can broaden access to clean cars. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uber-lyft-want-more-public-subsidies-meet-california-ev-mandates-2021-05-12/">Special purchase incentives</a> should also be extended to ride-share drivers, who spend much more time on the road than most drivers. Without such support, these drivers could be forced into costly payment plans for new EVs as states like California begin to mandate clean cars for everyone on the road. </p>
<p>California has proposed a <a href="https://calmatters.org/environment/climate-change/2021/05/uber-lyft-electric-cars-california-mandate-weighed/">phased transition</a> over the next decade, with 90% of ride-share cars on the road to be EVs by 2030. Since Uber and Lyft are multibillion-dollar companies that <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/ride-hailing-climate-risks">create about 70% more emissions than the rides they displace</a>, I believe they should be required to contribute generously to incentive programs. </p>
<p>The electric vehicle transition has great potential to benefit Black and Latino communities, which are disproportionately affected by fossil fuel pollution. Carefully targeted incentives and investments can make clean cars accessible for everyone on the road, mitigate the harms caused by gas-powered vehicles and move the U.S. toward achieving energy and climate justice.</p>
<p>[<em>Get our best science, health and technology stories.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-best">Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158380/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Marpillero-Colomina is affiliated with GreenLatinos, a 501c3 organization. She is their Clean Transportation advocate.</span></em></p>Electric cars offer benefits for low-income and minority drivers, including cleaner air and lower maintenance costs. But it will take more than rebates on new models to make EVs accessible for all.Andrea Marpillero-Colomina, Adjunct Lecturer in Urban Studies, The New SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1280762019-12-03T20:04:47Z2019-12-03T20:04:47ZLove it or hate it, Tesla’s Cybertruck is revolutionary<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304835/original/file-20191203-67017-10wwje3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3000%2C1890&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tesla CEO Elon Musk introduces the Cybertruck – with shattered windows – at Tesla's design studio in November 2019 in Hawthorne, Calif. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With a collective gasp and puzzled looks, the world was recently introduced to Tesla’s newest vehicle. The so-called Cybertruck is an angular, stainless steel, all-electric pickup truck that quickly <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-cybertruck-everything-we-know/">became polarizing</a>. </p>
<p>The launch didn’t go very smoothly. The truck’s <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/25/20981489/tesla-cybertruck-glass-window-fail-elon-musk-explanation">windows shattered</a> when its lead designer smashed them with a metal ball, causing Tesla founder Elon Musk to curse under his breath. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2019/11/26/cybertruck-by-state-100000-tweets-show-who-loves-and-hates-teslas-cybertruck/#17f292eb6cf5">Some love its futuristic look. Others hate it.</a></p>
<p>Even Lego made fun of it.</p>
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<p>Regardless, <a href="https://electrek.co/2019/11/26/teslas-cybertruck-quarter-million-orders-less-than-a-week/?_gl=1*1ny3qkr*_ga*YW1wLU9yd2ZSYnlsaTFWRkNHakxyQ3hWTkUySVRZWXI2dEFVZHJJWGIxLS1GQVE3SUFHcFFQWUljdzFaaDVmbGlVWnI.">pre-orders for the Cybertruck approached 250,000 within a week</a>. Such an explosion of interest with no advertising, and an arguably disastrous grand opening event, is probably unprecedented.</p>
<p>On a global scale, it’s clear that electric vehicles — known colloquially as EVs —have reached a new level of public acceptance. <a href="http://www.oecd.org/publications/global-ev-outlook-2018-9789264302365-en.htm">As of 2018, more than five million EVs were sold around the world.</a> Canadians have been somewhat slower at adopting this technology, with all-electric vehicles representing 1.2 per cent of sales in 2018, or approximately 46,000 units. That said, <a href="https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Canadian_electric_vehicle_transition_-_the_difference_between_revolution_or_evolution/$FILE/Canadian-electric-vehicle-transition-the-difference-between-revolution-or-evolution.pdf">Canadian sales of EVs grew 165 per cent year-over-year in 2018.</a></p>
<p>With the Cybertruck, Tesla has integrated several of its technologies into one offering. The truck features the <a href="https://www.space.com/elon-musk-cybertruck-blade-runner-james-bond-inspiration.html">same stainless steel alloy</a> being used at Musk’s other company, SpaceX. And it has lithium ion batteries, software and hardware for self-driving and a <a href="https://electrek.co/2019/11/22/tesla-cybertruck-solar-roof-option-add-range/">solar roof option</a> to help boost the Cybertruck’s range.</p>
<p>The efficiency of most gasoline engines is between 17 and 21 per cent. For EVs, the conversion of electrical energy into power to drive the wheels <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/evtech.shtml">is 59 to 62 per cent</a>. This gives EVs a clear performance advantage. The cost of operating EVs — including fuel and maintenance — <a href="https://www.2degreesinstitute.org/reports/comparing_fuel_and_maintenance_costs_of_electric_and_gas_powered_vehicles_in_canada.pdf">ranges between 65 per cent to 77 per cent less across Canada</a> than it costs to drive and maintain gasoline-fuelled vehicles. </p>
<p>Due to its weight and size, Tesla’s Cybertruck is likely to be somewhat less efficient than the electric passenger cars currently available. However, when compared to other non-electric trucks, the inherent efficiency advantage of electric motors and <a href="https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-cybertruck-aerodynamics/">the aerodynamics</a> of the Cybertruck are substantially better.</p>
<h2>Electric vehicles growing more popular</h2>
<p>EVs are rapidly becoming a core part of our transportation future. They offer the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions. </p>
<p>Even <a href="http://albertaev.ca/why-electric/">in oil-friendly Alberta</a>, where the grid is powered mostly by fossil fuels, the case is being made that EVs offer both environmental and economic advantages. They’re an important tool for reducing air pollution, for example, which <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/air-pollution/quality-environment-economy/economic-issues/human-health-costs.html">costs the Canadian economy billions of dollars every year</a>. </p>
<p>The Union of Concerned Scientists <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf">issued a report</a> in November 2015 that concluded: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Based on where EVs are being sold in the United States today, the average EV produces global warming emissions equal to a gasoline vehicle with a 68 mpg (miles per gallon) fuel economy rating.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>That’s about 3.4 litres per 100 kilometres in Canada. And in several northwestern states in the U.S., that equivalency is 94 mpg, or about 2.5 litres per 100 kilometres. This means that even the best gasoline- or diesel-powered vehicles would have to double or triple their fuel efficiency to come close to EVs.</p>
<p>In the same report, a life cycle analysis that included both the operation as well as the manufacturing of vehicles shows that a full-size EV has approximately half the environmental footprint of a full-size, gasoline-fuelled car.</p>
<p><a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/6342356">Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology</a> is also being developed around the world. V2G allows EVs to use chargers bidirectionally to turn them into mobile storage solutions — meaning EVs could help balance electricity supply and demand by making the vehicle’s battery system part of the overall grid infrastructure. Vehicles could be used to store energy during periods of over-supply and provide top-ups to the grid during peak demand hours. </p>
<p>With its massive battery pack, Tesla’s Cybertruck is particularly suited for V2G use. <a href="https://electricrevs.com/2019/11/21/tesla-plans-to-innovate-ac-power-outlets-on-cybertruck/">The vehicle will also come with a 120 volt/240 volt AC power outlet</a> that may be able to power homes during blackouts or brownouts. This is something currently done with other EVs using what are known as aftermarket inverter kits. <a href="https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/TECHNOLOGY/OVERVIEW/vehicle_to_home.html">Nissan has been working on similar technology in Japan with its Leaf vehicle</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304844/original/file-20191203-67034-xtztvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304844/original/file-20191203-67034-xtztvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/304844/original/file-20191203-67034-xtztvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304844/original/file-20191203-67034-xtztvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304844/original/file-20191203-67034-xtztvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304844/original/file-20191203-67034-xtztvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304844/original/file-20191203-67034-xtztvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/304844/original/file-20191203-67034-xtztvv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ford plans to unveil an electric version of its popular F-150.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Steve Petrovich/Ford Motor Co. via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Indeed, the Cybertruck will face serious competition from other manufacturers in the lucrative and growing pick-up truck market. <a href="https://rivian.com">Rivian</a> and <a href="https://bollingermotors.com">Bollinger</a> already have electric trucks ready for pre-sale or sale, and <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a25933730/ford-f-150-electric-pickup-truck-confirmed/">Ford is releasing an all-electric version of the popular F-150</a>.</p>
<h2>Advantage Tesla</h2>
<p>Tesla has two main advantages that will likely make the Cybertruck a winner. </p>
<p>First, Tesla has an advanced and extensive charging network that allows the owners of its products to quickly refuel. There are currently more than 14,000 <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/supercharger?redirect=no">superchargers</a> worldwide. </p>
<p>Second, Tesla has invested heavily in battery technology and manufacturing. <a href="https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/gigafactory?redirect=no">Its gigafactories</a> are expanding and using more renewable energy, including solar power, to reduce the ecological footprint of batteries. As a result, Tesla is able to scale up production and will probably be able to keep the cost of its vehicles lower than competitors.</p>
<p>Tesla’s Cybertruck and the growing number of offerings by other manufacturers of EVs likely represent the beginning of a larger transition away from internal combustion engines.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bnpparibas-am.com/en/the-asset-manager-for-a-changing-world/">BNP Paribas Asset Management</a>, a global investment firm managing 436 billion euros in assets, <a href="https://docfinder.bnpparibas-am.com/api/files/1094E5B9-2FAA-47A3-805D-EF65EAD09A7F">concludes the following in a report</a> on EVs: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“The economics of oil for gasoline and diesel vehicles … are now in relentless and irreversible decline.” </p>
</blockquote>
<p>To remain competitive with EVs, the investment firm calculates that the break-even point for gasoline is no more than $10 dollars a barrel, and for diesel, $17 to $19 a barrel. </p>
<p>The environmental advantages of electrifying transportation are significant and undeniable. EVs are also a pleasure to drive — they’re quiet, clean, fast, inexpensive to operate and perform well in all weather conditions. </p>
<p>Love it or hate it, Tesla’s Cybertruck is a game-changer. </p>
<p>[<em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael D. Mehta is the owner of the Sweet Spot Solar Company. He has pre-ordered a Tesla Cybertruck,</span></em></p>There’s no question Tesla’s Cybertruck will face stiff competition in the electric pickup truck market. Here’s why it has the edge.Michael D. Mehta, Professor, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Thompson Rivers UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1152132019-05-08T22:34:52Z2019-05-08T22:34:52ZWhen it comes to vehicles, Canada tops the charts for poor fuel economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271808/original/file-20190430-136777-1bouive.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C54%2C5152%2C2847&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A traffic jam on a busy highway near Vancouver, B.C. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Usually when Canada is at the top of an international ranking, it’s cause for celebration. Not this time. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.iea.org/topics/transport/gfei/">recent report</a> by the International Energy Agency shows that Canada’s vehicles have the highest average fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per kilometre driven. They are also the largest and the second heaviest in the world.</p>
<p>In short: Canadian vehicles are <a href="https://twitter.com/bcshaffer/status/1110994249225428992?s=20">big</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/bcshaffer/status/1110994453366362112?s=20">heavy</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/bcshaffer/status/1110993593538236416?s=20">guzzle a lot of gasoline</a>. For a country that is championing its climate action, how do we square these facts?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271543/original/file-20190429-194633-1o6y47g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271543/original/file-20190429-194633-1o6y47g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271543/original/file-20190429-194633-1o6y47g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271543/original/file-20190429-194633-1o6y47g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271543/original/file-20190429-194633-1o6y47g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271543/original/file-20190429-194633-1o6y47g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271543/original/file-20190429-194633-1o6y47g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271543/original/file-20190429-194633-1o6y47g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An international comparison of vehicle emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data source: International Energy Agency; Chart by Blake Shaffer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Many point to Canada’s vast land area — often connected with less-than-ideal roads and highways — and our cold climate as reasons for requiring more substantial vehicles. These arguments are not convincing. </p>
<p>More than <a href="https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/hlt-fst/pd-pl/Table.cfm?Lang=Eng&T=703&S=87&O=A">80 per cent of Canadians</a> live in urban or suburban areas where a more modest vehicle suffices for most activities. </p>
<p>In terms of vast distances, that actually calls for better fuel efficiency, not worse. And if cold weather is the excuse for buying an SUV, similarly frigid countries — Sweden, Finland and Iceland — have all managed to survive with lower-emitting vehicles.</p>
<p>So what explains Canada’s preference for gas guzzlers?</p>
<h2>Fuel economy standards</h2>
<p>North American vehicle manufacturers produce larger cars than their European and Asian counterparts. This in part reflects consumer preferences, but it is also the result of marketing campaigns and economies of scale in production that push buyers towards SUVs.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.theicct.org/blog/staff/efficiency-standards-Canada-chart-own-course">Fuel economy standards in Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/fuel-efficiency/fuel-economy-basics.html">the United States</a> act to reverse this pressure, pushing manufacturers to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles. In part they have worked: the average fuel consumption of cars and trucks has fallen substantially since 2005. Even so, Canada’s average fuel consumption trend has flatlined recently, with almost no improvement since 2013.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271571/original/file-20190429-194600-vnhzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271571/original/file-20190429-194600-vnhzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271571/original/file-20190429-194600-vnhzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271571/original/file-20190429-194600-vnhzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271571/original/file-20190429-194600-vnhzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271571/original/file-20190429-194600-vnhzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271571/original/file-20190429-194600-vnhzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271571/original/file-20190429-194600-vnhzq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average fuel consumption for Canadian vehicles, 2005-2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data source: International Energy Agency; Chart by Blake Shaffer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The slowdown in fuel economy improvements has a lot to do with the types of vehicles Canadians buy. The Toyota Camry and Honda Civic, once the mainstays of the average Canadian family, have given way to <a href="https://driving.ca/gmc/auto-news/news/the-10-best-selling-vehicles-in-canada-in-2018">Ford F-150s and Dodge Rams</a>. </p>
<p>The shift towards trucks, including SUVs, crossovers and minivans, in the past decade has been phenomenal. And before fingers point at places like Alberta, this is a trend seen across <a href="https://www.blakeshaffer.ca/post/trucks-trucks-trucks/">every province in Canada</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269673/original/file-20190416-147502-cfdqbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269673/original/file-20190416-147502-cfdqbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269673/original/file-20190416-147502-cfdqbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269673/original/file-20190416-147502-cfdqbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269673/original/file-20190416-147502-cfdqbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=512&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269673/original/file-20190416-147502-cfdqbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269673/original/file-20190416-147502-cfdqbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269673/original/file-20190416-147502-cfdqbv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=644&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New vehicles sales in Canada shows a big shift towards trucks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data source: Statistics Canada. Chart by Blake Shaffer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Is bigger better?</h2>
<p>Canadians say they are now buying trucks in droves because they are safer.</p>
<p>The common wisdom is that bigger, heavier cars are safer in a collision. This is half right. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt035">Vehicle weight does affect the likelihood of a fatality from a collision</a>, but only in a relative sense. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271547/original/file-20190429-194609-iod6sy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271547/original/file-20190429-194609-iod6sy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271547/original/file-20190429-194609-iod6sy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271547/original/file-20190429-194609-iod6sy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271547/original/file-20190429-194609-iod6sy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271547/original/file-20190429-194609-iod6sy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271547/original/file-20190429-194609-iod6sy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271547/original/file-20190429-194609-iod6sy.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An international comparison of vehicle weight.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data source: International Energy Agency; Chart by Blake Shaffer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When similar-sized vehicles collide, it makes little difference to safety outcomes whether it is large-on-large or small-on-small. However, when a large vehicle collides with a small one, the results are (unsurprisingly) far worse for the small vehicle’s passengers. </p>
<p>This introduces the notion of vehicle-size externalities: buying a larger car imposes safety costs on drivers of smaller cars. It also raises the prospect of a vehicle arms race, with drivers buying ever-larger cars in order to protect themselves, when safety would be just as effective if everyone drove similar, smaller vehicles.</p>
<h2>It comes down to cost</h2>
<p>Far and away the biggest reason for Canada’s fuel inefficient vehicles comes down to cost. Simply put, the cost to purchase and operate a gas guzzler in Canada (or the U.S.) is far less than the rest of the world. </p>
<p>This cost difference comes in two forms: upfront charges for vehicle registration and gas prices. </p>
<p>In Europe, vehicle registrations are often based on the vehicle’s fuel economy or emissions profile. In France, for example, car buyers face a sliding “bonus-malus” scale (or “feebate”). High-emitting vehicles incur a registration charge up to €10,000 while zero-emission vehicles receive €6,000 in rebates. And in Norway, where new vehicles are subject to a 25 per cent value-added tax and up to €10,000 in registration fees, electric vehicles are exempt from both charges. It is little wonder that <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/17344/electric-vehicle-share/">Norway has highest share of new sales of electric passenger cars</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271821/original/file-20190430-136797-1v7tx4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271821/original/file-20190430-136797-1v7tx4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/271821/original/file-20190430-136797-1v7tx4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271821/original/file-20190430-136797-1v7tx4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271821/original/file-20190430-136797-1v7tx4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271821/original/file-20190430-136797-1v7tx4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271821/original/file-20190430-136797-1v7tx4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/271821/original/file-20190430-136797-1v7tx4a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plug-in electric vehicle share of new car sales (2018)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Statista.com; ACEA, CAAM, InsideEVs, KAIDA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These upfront charges are often seen as alternatives to carbon taxes to shift consumers towards smaller, less emitting vehicles. And as Norway has shown, they can be effective. </p>
<p>However, other research has shown <a href="http://www.doi.org/10.1257/pol.20160078">feebates are less cost effective</a> than fuel or carbon taxes in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon taxes are better at targeting high-mileage drivers, and penalizing a gas guzzler that is driven sparingly can be a very ineffective (and costly) way to reduce emissions.</p>
<h2>Pain at the pump</h2>
<p>But perhaps the most significant reason Canadians drive less-efficient vehicles is gas prices. There is a clear correlation between the price of gasoline and the average fuel consumption of vehicles. Where gas prices are low, as they are in Canada and the U.S., fuel consumption tends to be high.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269674/original/file-20190416-147502-1ge8kvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269674/original/file-20190416-147502-1ge8kvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/269674/original/file-20190416-147502-1ge8kvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269674/original/file-20190416-147502-1ge8kvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269674/original/file-20190416-147502-1ge8kvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=432&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269674/original/file-20190416-147502-1ge8kvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269674/original/file-20190416-147502-1ge8kvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/269674/original/file-20190416-147502-1ge8kvu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An international comparison of gasoline prices and average vehicle fuel consumption.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data source: IEA and World Bank; Chart by Blake Shaffer</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While most people focus on the role of carbon taxes to reduce emissions by discouraging driving, higher gas prices can also affect the choice of which vehicle to buy. </p>
<p>In the aptly named article “<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2778868">Frugal cars or frugal drivers?</a>,” economists Werner Antweiler and Sumeet Gulati from the University of British Columbia looked at driver response to the provincial carbon tax. </p>
<p>They found that people started purchasing and driving more fuel efficient vehicles. According to their calculations, without B.C.’s carbon tax fuel, demand per capita would be seven per cent higher and the average vehicle’s fuel efficiency would be four per cent lower. </p>
<p>Carbon taxes may be unpopular with many, but they play an important role in determining what vehicles are on the road now — and in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115213/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Blake Shaffer is affiliated with the C.D. Howe Institute, the School of Public Policy and department of economics at the University of Calgary. He has provided policy analysis for the Alberta government and is currently providing policy analysis for the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Canada.</span></em></p>Vehicles in Canada are big, heavy and guzzle a lot of gasoline.Blake Shaffer, PhD, University of CalgaryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1129902019-03-06T11:25:39Z2019-03-06T11:25:39ZVenezuela’s economic collapse is laid bare when you look at how little energy the country is consuming<p>The country with the <a href="https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf">most oil reserves</a> on the planet is facing a total economic crash, with wildly conflicting inflation estimates – <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIPCH@WEO/WEOWORLD/VEN">as high as 10,000,000%</a> if the IMF’s projections for this year are correct. There has been much discussion about the collapse in Venezuela’s oil exports, intensified by <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/19/investing/venezuela-oil-sanctions-pdvsa/index.html">US sanctions</a> against <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/half-billion-dollars-of-sanction-stained-oil-sits-off-venezuela">the state oil</a> company PDVSA, which substantially prevents any oil trading between the two countries and takes away a steady income stream for the country. To understand the scale of the crisis, however, it is vital to look at what has been happening to energy consumption inside the country itself. </p>
<p>Oil consumption in Venezuela <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html">fell 37%</a> in five years up to 2017, a reminder that the country was struggling under the Maduro administration long before the latest sanctions, which came after opposition leader Juan Guaidó <a href="https://theconversation.com/maduro-has-pushed-venezuela-to-the-brink-of-revolution-sanctions-and-aid-may-tip-it-over-the-edge-112324">announced himself</a> the country’s rightful president in January. Unfortunately, the oil decline is not an environmental achievement but a worrying symptom of Venezuela’s economic conditions – GDP is <a href="https://blogs.imf.org/2019/01/25/latin-america-and-the-caribbean-in-2019-a-moderate-expansion/">expected</a> to have fallen 50% between 2015 and 2019. </p>
<p>In a country where economic data is scarce, different oil products can be used as proxies for different kinds of economic activity. Venezuela’s oil and fuel oil export numbers give insights into the country’s incoming cash flow from abroad, for instance, while diesel consumption is a partial indicator for transport, industry and the power sector. Gasoline is a proxy for transport activity as well. </p>
<p>Diesel consumption declined by 11% on average each year in 2013-17, and gasoline shows a similar pattern with an average annual decline of 7% or by 27% over the same five-year period. Together, the two fuels account for approximately 70% of total oil demand in the country. From the graphic below, you can see that the collapse in oil consumption and GDP are staggeringly similar. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262200/original/file-20190305-48426-2q6uku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262200/original/file-20190305-48426-2q6uku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262200/original/file-20190305-48426-2q6uku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262200/original/file-20190305-48426-2q6uku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262200/original/file-20190305-48426-2q6uku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262200/original/file-20190305-48426-2q6uku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262200/original/file-20190305-48426-2q6uku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262200/original/file-20190305-48426-2q6uku.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">ppp = purchasing power parity; MT = millions of tonnes; GDP from IMF.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BP Statistical Review 2018</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is not to say that the oil consumption estimates from the likes of BP are anywhere near perfect. Multiple Venezuelan official energy statistics ceased to be published between 2012 and 2015, leaving experts to build the best possible estimates from multiple sources. </p>
<p>BP figures for total oil consumption have been consistently revised downwards every year in recent history, as reality always punches below expectations. You can see this in the following graph, where each coloured line represents a different year of the BP Statistical Review and the estimates included for Venezuelan oil consumption: the yellow line represents the 2018 edition, whose numbers are mostly lower than the estimates in previous years’ editions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262195/original/file-20190305-48438-jp936a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262195/original/file-20190305-48438-jp936a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/262195/original/file-20190305-48438-jp936a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262195/original/file-20190305-48438-jp936a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262195/original/file-20190305-48438-jp936a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262195/original/file-20190305-48438-jp936a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262195/original/file-20190305-48438-jp936a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/262195/original/file-20190305-48438-jp936a.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=548&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">SR = BP Statistical Review of World Energy; MT = millions of tonnes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">BP Statistical Reviews 2015-18</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The view from the ground</h2>
<p>People are not driving around anymore in Venezuela. To make things worse, 90% of buses were <a href="https://venezuelablog.org/venezuelas-public-transportation-crisis/">reportedly</a> out of action by mid-2018. This is a society that just doesn’t go out for work or travel. Businesses are also using less transportation, since they produce fewer goods than they used to – including food. The last implication is terrifying, and can easily be missed when solely looking at numbers. It is possible to survive without a car, but not without food. A litre of milk <a href="https://venezuelablog.org/venezuelas-public-transportation-crisis/">can now easily cost</a> a tenth of a monthly salary. </p>
<p>Energy prices have been severely distorted by a combination of explosive inflation and heavy fuel subsidies. By mid-2018, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/10/venezuela-crisis-fuel-driving-census-maduro">you could buy</a> 3.5m litres of gasoline for a single US dollar, but could barely buy any basic food item. Yet even if you have enough money to fill up your tank, it is increasingly difficult to find fuel – and the cost of spare parts is exorbitant. </p>
<p>The future of oil output looks equally bleak. <a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IF10715.pdf">Production</a> is quickly <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-venezuela-oil/">collapsing</a>, with refineries only running at an incredibly low 22% of capacity. The power system is actually taking a double hit: the part that depends on fossil fuels in the form of natural gas, diesel and some fuel oil is crumbling while the part driven by hydropower is being <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/where-climate-change-fits-into-venezuela-rsquo-s-ongoing-crisis/">undermined by</a> very low rainfall caused by changing climate patterns. The net result <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article220464510.html">has been</a> thousands of power failures. A dry year could aggravate things further, requiring extra fossil fuels that the country is incapable of producing or affording. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/venezuela-us-sanctions-hurt-but-the-economic-crisis-is-home-grown-111280">Venezuela: US sanctions hurt, but the economic crisis is home grown</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As the sanctions continue to bite and hyperinflation rages on, Venezuela’s oil consumption decline looks set to reach levels last seen in the 1990s. The country began <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020419-venezuelas-pdvsa-begins-partial-rationing-of-gasoline-sources">rationing gasoline</a> in February, and is now in the awkward position of <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-oil-supplies/venezuela-gets-fuel-from-russia-europe-but-the-bill-soars-idUSKCN1QA0H9">importing</a> refined fuels from Russia, India and Spain at “horrifying” premiums, according to an executive of PDVSA. One consequence of the sanctions is that they have affected Venezuela’s ability to transport heavy oil from its own oil fields, since this is made easier by adding diluting agents that are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-sanctions-fact/factbox-u-s-sanctions-on-venezuelas-oil-industry-idUSKCN1PN34I">often imported</a> from the US. </p>
<p>The perfect storm of sanctions, inflation, production problems and <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/where-climate-change-fits-into-venezuela-rsquo-s-ongoing-crisis/">climate change risks</a> to power supply leaves us wondering how long it might take before the energy system comes to a total halt. As new oil statistics are published in the coming months, everyone from energy analysts to Washington policy hawks will be poring over them to try and understand where the country goes from here.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>António Carvalho collaborates with BP for the Statistical Review of World Energy and Energy Outlook, but the views expressed here are his own. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan Ditzen collaborates with BP for the Statistical Review of World Energy and Energy Outlook, but the views expressed here are his own. </span></em></p>The world’s most oil-abundant nation is heading for energy consumption levels not seen since the 1990s.António Carvalho, Research Associate (Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy), Heriot-Watt UniversityJan Ditzen, Research Associate (Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy), Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/967012018-11-21T11:50:33Z2018-11-21T11:50:33ZThe government aims to boost ethanol without evidence that it saves money or helps the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/246308/original/file-20181119-76144-1y56c2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A fan of fuel blends that contain as much as 85 percent ethanol.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Farm-Scene-E85-Outlook-Minneapolis/114b1a11cbfb4a59acd7ffbb0164a5c1/5/0">AP Photo/Jim Mone</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump has <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/10/10/656079682/trump-orders-epa-to-lift-regulations-on-ethanol">promised his supporters in Iowa</a> that the federal government will take a step that may increase corn ethanol sales. </p>
<p>This plant-derived fuel, which comprises about <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=27&t=10">10 percent of the 143 billion gallons</a> of gasoline Americans buy each year, is a kind of alcohol made from corn. The industry first emerged in 1980s with government support, after interest in making the country less reliant on imported oil surged in the 1970s. It later acquired a second purpose: lowering greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>I have <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7qNwVHkAAAAJ&hl=en'">spent the last 24 years studying alternative fuels</a> and fuel blends. Based on my research, and as a consumer, I can say that increasing the amount of ethanol blended with gasoline creates problems with older engines and potentially increases air pollution due to increased fuel evaporation while doing little to curb climate change.</p>
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<h2>E10 and E15</h2>
<p>Americans have been mixing ethanol and gasoline since Henry Ford touted the potential of biofuels. <a href="https://www.fuelfreedom.org/tag/model-t/">His Model T</a> could run on gasoline or ethanol or a combination.</p>
<p>But ethanol use only took off in the 1970s following the energy crisis. Its use expanded greatly during George W. Bush’s administration, with the advent of the <a href="https://www.afdc.energy.gov/laws/RFS.html">Renewable Fuel Standard in 2005</a>. This federal program mandated that increasing amounts of renewable fuels be mixed with gasoline and diesel. The program has set a target for the domestic consumption of <a href="https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard-program/overview-renewable-fuel-standard">15 billion gallons of corn ethanol</a> since 2015.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5qDYoEupI28?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Ford made its first flex-fuel car a century ago.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most engines can safely run on a blend of 90 percent gasoline and 10 percent corn ethanol, the standard formulation known as E10 that is available at most American gas stations. E15 is a blend containing 15 percent ethanol. This blend is not available in every state.</p>
<p>And where E15 is sold, it isn’t currently available year-round.</p>
<p>That’s because the additional 5 percent of ethanol, combined with summer heat, would increase the <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.8b00366?journalCode=enfue">tendency of blended fuels to evaporate</a> The evaporated emissions from fuels can contribute to the <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ethanol-fuels-ozone-pollution/">formation of ozone</a>, a major component of smog. In hotter weather, <a href="https://www.livescience.com/58117-does-gasoline-go-bad.html">ethanol can exacerbate pollution problems</a> in cities. Trump’s proposal would eliminate the existing summer ban on E15 sales.</p>
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<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>Removing the ban would probably boost ethanol sales, aiding farmers who grow the corn used to make the roughly <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php#renewable">16 billion gallons</a> of it the U.S. produced in 2017, including exports, and the ethanol industry overall.</p>
<p>Because a higher percentage of ethanol means a lower percentage of petroleum, using more ethanol hurts petroleum refiners. It would also pose a logistical challenge. Ethanol cannot go into oil or gas pipelines because it <a href="https://primis.phmsa.dot.gov/comm/Ethanol.htm">absorbs excess water and impurities</a> within pipelines. That means <a href="https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethanol_production.html">rail cars and tanker trucks</a> transport all ethanol. </p>
<p>Although ethanol proponents say its use cuts carbon emissions, the evidence is mixed.</p>
<p>The government has determined that corn ethanol is much <a href="https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethanol_fuel_basics.html">less effective than other biofuels</a> at reducing carbon emissions, producing only 1.5 to 2.1 units of energy for every unit used to produce it. This is much less efficient than biodiesel made from soybean oil, which produces <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.269.7061">5.5 units</a> of renewable energy for every unit consumed in production.</p>
<p>The ethanol Brazilians make from sugarcane residues does a much better job of shrinking that country’s carbon footprint. Converting sugarcane wastes into ethanol produces more than <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/bbb.1448">9.4 units of energy</a> for every unit that producing this fuel consumes.</p>
<h2>Flawed arguments</h2>
<p>One of the original goals behind mandating ethanol blends was to reduce oil imports. While corn ethanol does directly displace gasoline consumption, other efforts to reduce oil imports have had far more impact.</p>
<p>The share of oil the U.S. imports has fallen in recent years, but that decline is largely due to a domestic production boom brought on by hydraulic fracturing, often called fracking, horizontal drilling and other <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=20892">technological advances</a>. Increased domestic output has <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=a">displaced 54.5 billion gallons of imported oil</a>
annually – more than three times the roughly <a href="https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.php#renewable">15 billion gallons</a> of oil per year ethanol is displacing. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.biodiesel.org/production/production-statistics">Biodiesel and renewable diesel</a>, made from vegetable oils and animal fats, are displacing another nearly 3 billion gallons of diesel derived from petroleum per year.</p>
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<p>A <a href="https://vimeo.com/253081178">TV commercial</a> I’ve seen during football games touted two other flawed arguments in favor of increasing corn ethanol production: that E15 will mean “cleaner air” at a “lower cost.” </p>
<p>The problem is that blending ethanol with other fuels <a href="https://www.concawe.eu/publication/report-no-1313/">lowers their energy content</a>, slightly decreasing fuel economy. It may cost a bit less to fill up your tank but based on my calculations the decrease in miles per gallon that E15 would yield will mean it makes no difference on your wallet.</p>
<p>Likewise, the claim that E15 leads to cleaner air is not justifiable.</p>
<p>For one thing, all vehicles made since 1975 have <a href="https://auto.howstuffworks.com/catalytic-converter.htm">catalytic converters</a> that remove unburned hydrocarbons and other airborne pollutants. For another, the Energy Department has not detected any across-the-board reduction in tailpipe emissions associated with ethanol use. Instead, it has observed that using more ethanol may slightly increase the <a href="https://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/flexible_fuel_emissions.html">tailpipe emissions of aldehydes</a>, which are <a href="https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/mmg/mmg.asp?id=216&tid=39">respiratory irritants</a>.</p>
<h2>Old cars and chainsaws</h2>
<p>All cars since model year 2001 can operate safely on E15, but not older cars. Vehicles manufactured before 2001 could suffer fuel system or engine damage if they’re run on E15. The government requires the labeling of all E15 fuel pumps to prevent accidental use for this reason.</p>
<p>A bipartisan bill is pending in Congress that would take this notification further by making the labels bigger and mandating that they <a href="https://www.sema.org/sema-enews/2018/21/federal-bill-introduced-to-require-larger-fuel-pump-warning-labels-for-e15">warn consumers</a> to check their owners’ manuals.</p>
<p>Another problem is that concentrations of ethanol in excess of 10 percent <a href="https://www.doi.org/10.2172/949053">can hurt non-automotive engines</a>, the Energy Department has found. These include, for example, the motors in lawn and garden equipment, motorcycles and <a href="https://www.boats.com/how-to/the-outboard-expert-ethanol-fuel-and-e15-update/">speedboats</a>.</p>
<p>Smaller engines lack computer controls able to adjust to operation on ethanol blends. If, say, the chain on your chainsaw engages without you intending it to, you could be in real danger. This malfunctioning can potentially cause <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20222526">accidents in which people lose fingers or even limbs</a>.</p>
<p>Even once manufacturers redesign their weed-whacker and chainsaw engines to become compatible with higher ethanol blends, consumers who own older equipment would remain at risk of having them break down due to changes in fuel composition if E15 becomes the norm at filling stations.</p>
<p>People who own lawn and garden equipment and speedboats would have to go out of their way to avoid this problem by buying “<a href="https://www.pure-gas.org/about">pure gasoline</a>.”</p>
<p>In short, year-round sales of E15 probably aren’t going to do much to reduce oil imports or trim the nation’s carbon footprint. It would take more ambitious and strategic energy policies to achieve those worthwhile goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96701/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>André Boehman serves on the Technical Advisory Board for Oberon Fuels (San Diego, CA). Prof. Boehman has received research funding from the US Department of Energy, National Science Foundation, US EPA, US Army TARDEC and other federal agencies, various state organizations and many industrial partners. </span></em></p>Vehicles made before 2001 could suffer fuel system or engine damage if they’re run on E15.André Boehman, Professor of Mechanical Engineering; Director, W.E. Lay Automotive Laboratory, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1007082018-08-10T10:40:17Z2018-08-10T10:40:17ZWhy Trump shouldn’t leverage the government’s emergency oil supply to bolster the GOP<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/231134/original/file-20180808-191044-hwvwdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Gerald Ford discussing plans for a Strategic Petroleum Reserve with workers in California in 1975</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/library/whphotos/A3883_NLGRF.jpg">Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library & Museum</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1014611307427966976">President Donald Trump</a> has publicly griped about the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RWTCD.htm">prices of oil</a> and <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W">gasoline</a>, which are at their highest levels in four years.</p>
<p>If oil supplies were to suddenly grow, those prices might well decline. That is why, according to unnamed sources, his administration is reportedly considering selling some of the oil stowed in the nation’s <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/what-happens-if-president-trump-taps-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve.html">Strategic Petroleum Reserve</a> and urging U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-is-angry-at-opec-over-oil-prices-experts-say-trump-shares-the-blame/2018/07/05/7c1cae18-8059-11e8-b0ef-fffcabeff946_story.html?utm_term=.549a44c1f4e6">pump more oil</a>.</p>
<p>Should Trump attempt to lower gas prices to gain favor with voters, it wouldn’t be the first time a president has tapped the strategic reserve in advance of an election. But it would be the first time such a move was made solely for political reasons. And I believe it would be a particularly cavalier action in light of <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35032">Congress’ recent moves to sharply reduce the amount of oil in the reserve</a> and the energy insurance it’s provided for over three decades.</p>
<p>Based on what <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kQdHRewAAAAJ&hl=en&authuser=1">I’ve learned</a> from researching <a href="https://jhupbooks.press.jhu.edu/content/coal-and-empire">the links between energy and national security</a> since the 19th century, I see in these moves a strategic shift that ought to worry Americans.</p>
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<h2>Energy independence</h2>
<p>Congress and President Gerald Ford’s administration created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the mid-1970s to insulate the country from <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780809075072">oil supply interruptions</a>.</p>
<p>At the time, the U.S. had become much more <a href="http://americanhistory.si.edu/american-enterprise-exhibition/consumer-era/energy-crisis">reliant on imported oil</a>. And there were deep concerns about supply interruptions because in 1973, the Arab members of the OPEC oil cartel imposed an embargo on countries, including the U.S., that were supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War.</p>
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<p>Crude oil prices out of the Middle East <a href="https://www.npr.org/news/specials/oil/gasprices.chronology.html">quadrupled in just a few months</a>, pushing up prices at American gas pumps.</p>
<p>Since that energy crisis, the federal government has made achieving U.S. “<a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-doesnt-understand-what-it-means-to-make-america-energy-independent">energy independence</a>,” or at least resilience, a top priority.</p>
<p>Over the decade following 1975, the government <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ahr/121.5.1705">built the reserve</a> in roughly 60 caverns hollowed out of underground salt domes at four sites in Texas and Louisiana. The U.S. also has become <a href="https://www.iea.org/about/history/">one of about 30</a> industrialized, oil-consuming countries that maintain emergency oil supplies around the globe and coordinate responses to future disruptions, like those following the <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fe/services/petroleum-reserves/strategic-petroleum-reserve/releasing-oil-spr#2011-IEA-Coordinated-Release">revolution in Libya in 2011</a>.</p>
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<h2>Political expediency</h2>
<p>But the release that the Trump team is reportedly mulling appears to be timed not for a petroleum shortfall but to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/energy/2018/06/29/can-president-trump-counter-soaring-gas-prices-tapping-reserves/744528002/">make voters feel less pinched</a> when they fill their tanks – or fill out their ballots.</p>
<p>If that happens, without any verifiable supply bottlenecks, it would mark an unprecedented attempt to benefit the party in power by <a href="https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-Trump-Counter-Soaring-Gasoline-Prices.html">temporarily cutting gasoline prices</a> – or at least to persuade voters that the administration is trying to make that happen.</p>
<p>The closest parallel of a contested election-year release happened in 2000, <a href="https://www.energy.gov/fe/services/petroleum-reserves/strategic-petroleum-reserve/releasing-oil-spr#2000HOExchange">when then-President Bill Clinton</a> released 2.7 million barrels of reserve crude – and later 30 million additional barrels – to relieve a shortage of residential heating oil in the northeast. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/gores-move-to-release-oil-serves-only-to-grease-votes/article770226/">Critics decried</a> the moves as ploys to aid the presidential campaign of then-Vice President Al Gore, <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2000/09/22/news/oil_spr/">who had called for such a release</a>. But, unlike the situation today, a <a href="https://archive.bangordailynews.com/2000/09/14/collins-asks-clinton-to-tap-into-petroleum-reserve/">bipartisan group of lawmakers from oil-consuming states</a> had demanded it and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/2449/american-public-supports-decision-tap-oil-reserves.aspx">public support was solidly behind it</a>.</p>
<p>Among those who criticized Clinton’s move was then-presidential candidate and <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2000/09/21/economy/gore_oil/">former oilman George W. Bush</a>. After assuming office in 2001, the second President Bush sought to fill the reserve to full capacity for the first time and only release oil during emergencies when refineries could not buy crude, and not simply because of high prices, no matter how much of an economic hardship these prices imposed. </p>
<p>On his watch, that meant selling some of the oil after <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2005/09/26/news/economy/bush/">Hurricane Katrina</a> interfered with refining along the Gulf Coast. In <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=24446">Bush’s 2007 State of the Union address</a>, he called for the reserve to be doubled to 1.5 billion barrels, but <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congress-oil/senate-rejects-bush-policy-of-boosting-oil-reserve-idUSWBT00897920080513">Congress rejected even smaller increases almost unanimously as uneconomical</a>.</p>
<p>Another difference from past emergency reserve releases, should there be a sale soon, is that domestic oil production has risen sharply in recent years due to technological innovations like <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-record-shale-analysis/u-s-oil-industry-set-to-break-record-upend-global-trade-idUSKBN1F50HV">hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling</a>. </p>
<p>That growth – which brought the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=32&t=6">country’s dependence on imported oil</a> to a 50-year low in 2017 – has made many politicians believe that maintaining more than 700 million barrels of oil has become an unnecessary extravagance.</p>
<p>In fact, Congress has already mandated the gradual sale of some <a href="https://www.oilandgas360.com/congress-readies-to-sell-off-empty-space-in-strategic-petroleum-reserve/">300 million barrels</a> of this oil over the coming decade. The proceeds would fund either unrelated spending, deferred maintenance on the reserves themselves, or pay for <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35032">revenue lost from the assorted tax cuts</a> that took effect in 2018. These reductions may make the country less prepared to deal with real supply disruptions in the future, like a catastrophic Iranian-Saudi Arabian war. </p>
<p>Anticipating these reductions, in July, House Republicans began discussing <a href="https://energycommerce.house.gov/hearings/doe-modernization-legislation-to-authorize-a-pilot-project-to-commercialize-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve/">plans to lease or even sell storage space in the reserve to private companies</a>.</p>
<p>Further distinguishing a fall release from previous ones, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MOCIDUS2&f=M">U.S. refineries are currently running at nearly full capacity</a>, raising questions of how selling this oil would even benefit consumers.</p>
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<p>It is possible – and in the context of global warming, desirable – that someday, the U.S. economy will no longer rely on petroleum and therefore will have no need for a Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Until then, I do not see how it can make sense for political opportunism to influence the nation’s energy strategy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Shulman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There’s no precedent for selling oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a time when there’s no market-driven reason for doing that.Peter Shulman, Associate Professor of History, Case Western Reserve UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/944672018-08-09T10:41:33Z2018-08-09T10:41:33ZHow the federal government came to control your car’s fuel economy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/231140/original/file-20180808-191038-1tfaef.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The bad old days of gas lines in the 1970s and shortages led to the creation of fuel economy rules.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Associated-Press-Domestic-News-New-York-United-/80242c041ce5da11af9f0014c2589dfb/19/0">AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Environmental Protection Agency in August <a href="https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/safer-and-affordable-fuel-efficient-vehicles-proposed">announced a plan</a> to freeze fuel economy standards and revoke the ability of California to set more stringent rules than the national ones, prompting a <a href="https://theconversation.com/trump-administration-and-california-are-on-collision-course-over-vehicle-emissions-rules-100574">legal showdown</a> between the state and the federal government.</p>
<p>The proposal, which would keep fuel economy at planned 2020 levels, is the most significant step to halt the rise on the mileage standards of the U.S. passenger vehicle fleet in decades. </p>
<p>But how did fuel efficiency even become mandated? After all, manufacturers go to great lengths to analyze the consumer marketplace and build in the most tantalizing features to create top sellers, whether it’s great acceleration or a deep bass sound system. One feature is different, though: Carmakers are legally bound to innovate more efficiency into their vehicles.</p>
<p>The regulations requiring higher efficiency – known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards – are one of the clearest vestiges of lessons the U.S. learned during the 1970s energy crisis. And most experts agree that by every measure, they show that <a href="https://theconversation.com/stronger-fuel-standards-make-sense-even-when-gas-prices-are-low-94274">thoughtful regulation can drive industry</a> to improve basic aspects of the consumer market, in this case automobiles, through innovation and designs that prioritize efficiency. </p>
<p>But today, the Trump administration argues that such regulations may be “<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/01/607447344/states-sue-the-epa-to-protect-obama-era-fuel-efficiency-standards">too stringent</a>.” From my perspective as a historian, I see this move to put the brakes on rising fuel efficiency rules as a sea change in the country’s priorities on energy and oil consumption.</p>
<h2>‘Energy crisis’ and OPEC</h2>
<p>It was a panicked moment in 1977 when President Jimmy Carter <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4161905/jimmy-carter-sweater">stood in the Oval Office</a> to “have an <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=7369">unpleasant talk</a> with Americans about a problem unprecedented in our history.” </p>
<p>The Arab members of OPEC had embargoed oil shipments to many Western nations, resulting in temporary shortages in supply. But the U.S. after World War II had come to assume an <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-world-war-i-ushered-in-the-century-of-oil-74585">infinite oil supplies</a>. Though temporary, lines at gas stations and market shortages caused what was called an “energy crisis.” </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Jimmy Carter called energy, apart from war, the greatest challenge Americans “will face in our lifetime.”</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Carter identified the essential problem as energy gluttony on which he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1977/04/19/archives/carter-asks-strict-fuel-saving-urges-moral-equivalent-of-war-to-bar.html">declared</a> the “moral equivalent of war.” And CAFE standards marked a significant part of the federal response to the new reality of energy resources as finite – <a href="http://wws.princeton.edu/news-and-events/events/item/panic-pump-energy-crisis-past-present-and-future">not limitless</a>. </p>
<p>Most radical, though, the new standards redefined vehicles in a way that returned to the ethic of Henry Ford when vehicles possessed <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Crude_Reality.html?id=rnm-GyofjUoC">neither options nor variations</a>. Behind the options and bling, the auto could now be measured primarily for the effectiveness with which it carried out its basic purpose: transporting humans. As a remarkable example of the “<a href="http://www.environmentandsociety.org/mml/lovins-amory-b-soft-energy-paths-towards-durable-peace">softer energy paths</a>” extolled by environmental scientist Amory Lovins and others in the 1970s, CAFE standards recast the primary purpose of autos in the U.S. beyond devices for personal transportation. While they could offer various comforts and symbols of “bling,” American-made cars now had to perform their basic purpose – transportation – <a href="https://academic.oup.com/envhis/article-abstract/20/3/535/436699">efficiently</a>. </p>
<p>The 1975 law required that each vehicle openly post its miles per gallon rating, similar to listing ingredients in food that was required by the Food and Drug Administration. The law also required manufacturers to achieve the more challenging goal of improving fuel efficiency to reduce pollution and limit dependence on foreign oil. And they did: In 1978, American autos <a href="http://wws.princeton.edu/news-and-events/events/item/panic-pump-energy-crisis-past-present-and-future">averaged 13 miles per gallon compared to 22 mpg</a> in other Western countries; the law set the goal at 28 mpg for new American cars by 1985, which <a href="https://theconversation.com/government-fuel-economy-standards-for-cars-and-trucks-have-worked-94529">manufacturers achieved</a>. </p>
<h2>Political shifts</h2>
<p>Left open to political shifts, the CAFE standards have been adjusted up and down by each administration. </p>
<p>After rising significantly in the 1970s and early 1980s to 27.5 mpg, the fuel efficiency standards <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/fuel-efficiency/fuel-economy-basics.html#.WsjSVoIh2L4">stayed more or less steady</a> until the 2000s. In many cases, the auto industry lobbied against raising levels. </p>
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<p>Then in 2007, Congress under President George W. Bush passed an energy law that put in place the first changes to U.S. fuel-economy standards in almost 20 years, raising the levels for auto manufactures to meet. In 2009, the Obama administration raised the goals even further and tied the decrease in emissions to <a href="https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/28/obama-administration-finalizes-historic-545-mpg-fuel-efficiency-standard">progress toward fighting climate change</a>, not only reducing oil consumption. </p>
<p>The Trump administration’s proposal would require manufacturers to meet the 2020 level of 37.5 mpg, but not meet the Obama administration’s more ambitious goals of over 50 mpg after that date. </p>
<p>The proposal reflects the Trump administration’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-deregulatory-record-doesnt-include-much-actual-deregulation-96161">commitment to deregulation</a> as a way to stimulate the economy. It also demonstrates a major change in how the U.S. views oil and gasoline. In the 1970s, the U.S. experienced how dependent it was on foreign suppliers; today, the U.S. is now one of the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=oil_where">world’s leading producers of oil</a>. </p>
<p>Even if most consumers wouldn’t make efficiency a primary rationale for selecting a vehicle, time has shown that Americans from a <a href="http://www.pewtrusts.org/%7E/media/assets/2011/04/history-of-fuel-economy-clean-energy-factsheet.pdf">wide swath of the electorate look favorably</a> on spending less cash on gasoline. </p>
<p>California said it intends to <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/400769-california-tees-up-regulatory-counter-to-trumps-car-emissions">fight back against the proposal</a>, which suggests that CAFE standards will be a primary battlefront in the effort by states willing to stand against loosening environmental regulation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94467/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian C. Black does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Trump administration’s move to freeze fuel economy standards reflects a sea change in American energy policy first born during an era of oil shortages and environmental crises.Brian C. Black, Distinguished Professor of History and Environmental Studies, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/762412017-05-02T12:27:08Z2017-05-02T12:27:08ZFact Check: are diesel cars really more polluting than petrol cars?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167499/original/file-20170502-17241-12e6x1t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>The science now tells us that diesel vehicles cause more than four times the pollution than petrol cars.</p>
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<p><strong>Sadiq Khan, Mayor of London</strong></p>
<p>Diesel cars have recently become subject to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/mar/04/diesel-environment-ban-tax-duty-emissions-values">considerable negative publicity</a> thanks to the amount of toxic emissions they produce. Some governments are planning to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/04/handoutsfor-dieselcars-hit-bytoxin-tax/">discourage their use</a> or even <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38170794">ban them from urban areas</a> altogether. Yet some diesel car <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3248004/government-told-us-diesel-cars-were-green-and-cheap-but-now-ours-may-cost-the-family-an-160-extra-a-week-say-fuming-families/">owners have reacted angrily</a>, arguing they bought the vehicles because they were supposedly the environmentally friendly option.</p>
<p>Diesel was promoted as a more environmentally friendly fuel as part of the <a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-98-734_en.htm?locale=en">EU’s response</a> to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide (CO₂). Diesel engines are “lean-burn”, meaning they use less fuel and more air to get the <a href="http://www.air-quality.org.uk/26.php">same performance</a> as a petrol engine.</p>
<p>So, while diesel fuel contains <a href="https://people.exeter.ac.uk/TWDavies/energy_conversion/Calculation%20of%20CO2%20emissions%20from%20fuels.htm">slightly more carbon</a> (2.68kg CO₂/litre) than petrol (2.31kg CO₂/litre), overall CO₂ emissions of a diesel car tend to be lower. In use, on average, this equates to around 200g CO₂/km for petrol and 120g CO₂/km for diesel. </p>
<p>But even when governments were promoting diesel cars, we knew there were issues with toxic emissions (those immediately harmful to humans, not CO₂). Heating air in an engine produces nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) which include the toxic nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N₂O) and nitric oxide (NO), which reacts with oxygen to form NO₂. In a petrol car, these can be cleaned up by a three-way catalytic converter so that it emits on average around <a href="http://www.air-quality.org.uk/26.php">30% less NOₓ</a> than a diesel car, without after-treatment.</p>
<p>We know that long-term exposure to nitric oxide <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-not-so-invisible-damage-from-vw-diesel-cheat-100-million-in-health-costs-48296">can significantly increase the risk of respiratory problems</a>, and so these emissions have been regulated for some time. The fine particulate matter (PM) that diesel engines produce <a href="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev.pu.15.050194.000543">also causes cancer</a> and can have acute respiratory effects.</p>
<p>Particulate filters in car exhausts can reduce PM emissions <a href="https://www.dieselnet.com/tech/dpf.php">by more than 90%</a>, but they require good operating conditions and regular maintenance. They can also produce more nitrogen dioxide, making diesel <a href="https://uk-air.defra.gov.uk/assets/documents/reports/aqeg/nd-summary.pdf">one of the main sources</a> of this toxic gas.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167493/original/file-20170502-17241-1rzsq9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/167493/original/file-20170502-17241-1rzsq9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167493/original/file-20170502-17241-1rzsq9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167493/original/file-20170502-17241-1rzsq9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=352&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167493/original/file-20170502-17241-1rzsq9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167493/original/file-20170502-17241-1rzsq9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/167493/original/file-20170502-17241-1rzsq9e.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Today’s EU petrol and diesel CO2 standards (Euro 6) are very similar.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">European Union</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For all the differences between petrol and diesel cars in the past, <a href="http://www.rac.co.uk/drive/advice/know-how/euro-emissions-standards/">current EU emissions standards</a> for new vehicles of both types are quite similar. But there are still many older cars on the road that conform to earlier emissions standards.</p>
<p>Plus, in order to achieve these standards, diesel engine manufacturers have had to resort to technologies such as <a href="http://blog.greenflag.com/2014/diesel-drivers-need-know-dpf/">particulate filters</a>, which tend to clog up when used mainly for urban driving. And the latest emissions technology requires the owner to regularly add a urea mixture such as AdBlue to the engine. By contrast, petrol emissions systems regulate themselves, needing less driver input.</p>
<p>The problem is that governments often fail to grasp that focusing on one issue at a time, such as CO₂ output, inevitably leads them to ignore others, such as toxic emissions. It seems likely that to tackle both problems, governments will eventually have to start <a href="https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/what-country-will-become-the-first-to-ban-internal-combustion-cars">banning vehicles</a> with internal combustion engines altogether, initially in urban areas and ultimately more generally. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>For most cars built over the past 20 years that may still be in use, petrol is likely to be less polluting overall than diesel. Petrol cars also require less maintenance to keep them performing at that level. But new, well maintained diesel cars, built to the latest standards have similar emissions to new petrol vehicles.</p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p><em>Aonghus McNabola, associate professor in civil and structural engineering, Trinity College Dublin</em></p>
<p>Overall I find this a fair reflection on the topic of diesel cars. Some points are worth elaborating further. From a health impact point of view, the public should also be particularly concerned about the fine particulate matter emitted from diesel engines because it is associated with poor heart health. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1240569/">Research has proven</a> that increases in background concentrations of particulate matter result in more hospital admissions and deaths from heart attacks, particularly among those already at risk.</p>
<p>The near EU-wide plan to encourage people to buy diesel vehicles in the past number of years is another example of the lack of connection between air pollution policy and climate change policy, and the difficulties of considering CO₂ emissions separately to the many other thousands of compounds that human activities emit. Replacing petrol cars with diesel ones does result in lower CO₂ emissions and climate impacts but it has clearly been worse for human health.</p>
<p>This article rightly sums up the outlook that new, well maintained diesel vehicles have quite similar levels of particulate emissions to petrol cars, although they are still higher. However, most vehicle fleets are dominated by the older and considerably more polluting, earlier emission standard vehicles. It will take many years for these vehicles to make their way out of operation. During this time, human health will continue to be damaged by diesel emissions.</p>
<p><em>The Conversation is checking claims made by public figures. Statements are checked by an academic with expertise in the area. A second academic expert then reviews an anonymous copy of the article. Please get in touch if you spot a claim you would like us to check by emailing us at <a href="mailto:uk-factcheck@theconversation.com">uk-factcheck@theconversation.com</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76241/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Nieuwenhuis has in the past received funding relevant to this area from ESRC, EPSRC, ACEA, Greenpeace International, OECD. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aonghus McNabola has received funding relevant to this area from the Irish Environmental Protection Agencies EPA Research Programme, and the EU Horizon 2020 programme. </span></em></p>Diesel engines have been demonised for their emissions but the technology has already cleaned up its act.Paul Nieuwenhuis, Senior Lecturer and Co-Director, Electric Vehicle Centre of Excellence (EVCE), Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/656222016-09-26T01:33:43Z2016-09-26T01:33:43ZAddicted to oil: US gasoline consumption is higher than ever<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/139066/original/image-20160924-29889-18mi4tb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gas is cheap and Americans are back on in their cars and trucks.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/viriyincy/2914531798/in/photolist-5rxJLf-9MY44A-8Y5as3-7xHGUk-mvZ26U-6LAbC1-4zTP3F-4VGnju-avRvez-pAAehJ-4mcexJ-4xf1cd-keNU5z-hdG76U-fNFkWg-nXureH-6MDptH-9vvQC6-deJ4jY-H27gNS-7vvt19-987sPF-pdcCSt-9zyrQ5-cZ75r7-ck6LF7-dHSozf-9BxfaB-gmz647-btS2uw-az7oSz-jFwe9S-4rjVCP-8aPZrx-g86KCx-BWcnhD-abTW37-bAHR5K-aza3qG-nMe1hf-295w6Q-7T57km-8mRboj-AYFrBQ-9bmPYV-6i14LJ-azPY1w-7t4XBF-p3FW1j-9zvv9B">viriyincy/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>August was the biggest month ever for U.S. gasoline consumption. Americans used a staggering <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_wpsup_k_w.htm">9.7 million barrels per day</a>. That’s more than a gallon per day for every U.S. man, woman and child. </p>
<p>The new peak comes as <a href="http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25072">a surprise</a> to many. In 2012, energy expert Daniel Yergin <a href="http://www.npr.org/2012/03/22/149061105/whats-making-americans-less-hungry-for-gasoline">said</a>, “The U.S. has already reached what we can call`peak demand.” Many others <a href="http://knkx.org/post/whats-making-americans-less-hungry-gasoline">agreed</a>. The U.S. Department of Energy <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/archive/aeo12/">forecast</a> in 2012 that U.S. gasoline consumption would steadily decline for the foreseeable future.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138831/original/image-20160922-22514-fwpal2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138831/original/image-20160922-22514-fwpal2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138831/original/image-20160922-22514-fwpal2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138831/original/image-20160922-22514-fwpal2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138831/original/image-20160922-22514-fwpal2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138831/original/image-20160922-22514-fwpal2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138831/original/image-20160922-22514-fwpal2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138831/original/image-20160922-22514-fwpal2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=545&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Constructed by Lucas Davis (UC Berkeley) using EIA data 'Motor Gasoline, 4-Week Averages.'</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This seemed to make sense at the time. U.S. gasoline consumption had declined for five years in a row and, in 2012, was a million barrels per day below its July 2007 peak. Also in August 2012, President Obama had just <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/08/28/obama-administration-finalizes-historic-545-mpg-fuel-efficiency-standard">announced</a> aggressive new fuel economy standards that would push average vehicle fuel economy to 54 miles per gallon. </p>
<p>Fast forward to 2016, and U.S. gasoline consumption has increased steadily four years in a row. We now have a new peak. This dramatic reversal has important consequences for petroleum markets, the environment and the U.S. economy. </p>
<p>How did we get here? There were a number of factors, including the the Great Recession and a spike in gasoline prices at the end of the last decade, which are unlikely to be repeated any time soon. But it should come as no surprise. With incomes <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/14/business/economy/us-census-household-income-poverty-wealth-2015.html?_r=0">increasing again</a> and low gasoline prices, Americans are back to buying big cars and driving more miles than ever before. </p>
<h2>The Great Recession</h2>
<p>The slowdown in U.S. gasoline consumption between 2007 and 2012 occurred during the worst global recession since World War II. The <a href="http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html">National Bureau of Economic Research</a> dates the Great Recession as beginning December 2007, exactly at the beginning of the slowdown in gasoline consumption. The economy remained anemic, with unemployment above 7 percent through 2013, just about when gasoline consumption started to increase again.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138836/original/image-20160922-22530-ntux9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138836/original/image-20160922-22530-ntux9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138836/original/image-20160922-22530-ntux9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138836/original/image-20160922-22530-ntux9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138836/original/image-20160922-22530-ntux9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138836/original/image-20160922-22530-ntux9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138836/original/image-20160922-22530-ntux9f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Economists have <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988314002734">shown</a> in <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v41y2012icp2-13.html">dozens</a> of <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/41323125?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">studies</a> that there is a robust positive relationship between income and gasoline consumption – when people have more to spend, gasoline usage goes up. During the Great Recession, Americans traded in their vehicles for <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.103.1.220">more fuel-efficient models</a>, and drove fewer miles. But now, as incomes are increasing again, Americans are <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/05/09/477301486/why-americans-are-buying-more-trucks-and-suvs-than-cars">buying bigger cars and trucks</a> with <a href="http://web.mit.edu/knittel/www/papers/steroids_latest.pdf">bigger engines</a>, and driving <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004727270200186X">more total miles</a>.</p>
<h2>Gasoline prices</h2>
<p>The other important explanation is gasoline prices. During the first half of 2008, gasoline prices increased sharply. It is hard to remember now, but U.S. gasoline prices <a href="https://blog.gasbuddy.com/Retail_Price_Chart.aspx">peaked</a> during the summer of 2008 above US$4.00 gallon, driven by crude oil prices that had topped out above $140/barrel.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/139043/original/image-20160923-29919-mgydvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/139043/original/image-20160923-29919-mgydvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/139043/original/image-20160923-29919-mgydvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139043/original/image-20160923-29919-mgydvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139043/original/image-20160923-29919-mgydvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139043/original/image-20160923-29919-mgydvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139043/original/image-20160923-29919-mgydvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139043/original/image-20160923-29919-mgydvs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gasoline prices in Washington D.C. top $4 a gallon in 2008.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/brownpau/2478365614/in/photolist-4SVxhQ-bGnpk2-AZfhU-4HfG1z-4M1gKC-4PtunA-buKRH4-9Sdb9R-bCMthM-4HvSC5-5BKNWw-4V5uTM-8eW3Zq-9AggZH-5gamtJ-izu3p5-5vSQeZ-okcxJz-dfydyS-yBrpQo-5xGMMd-58PbLd">brownpau/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138839/original/image-20160922-22502-1134ahw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/138839/original/image-20160922-22502-1134ahw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138839/original/image-20160922-22502-1134ahw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138839/original/image-20160922-22502-1134ahw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138839/original/image-20160922-22502-1134ahw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138839/original/image-20160922-22502-1134ahw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/138839/original/image-20160922-22502-1134ahw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">retail.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These $4.00+ prices were short-lived, but gasoline prices nonetheless remained steep during most of 2010 to 2014, before falling sharply during 2014. Indeed, it was these high prices that contributed to the decrease in U.S. gasoline consumption between 2007 and 2012. Demand curves, after all, do slope down. Economists have shown that Americans are getting <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=930730">less sensitive</a> to gasoline prices, but there is still a strong negative relationship between prices and gasoline consumption.</p>
<p>Moreover, since gasoline prices plummeted in the last few months of 2014, Americans have been buying gasoline like crazy. Last year was the <a href="http://www.autonews.com/article/20160105/RETAIL01/160109995/u.s.-auto-sales-break-record-in-2015">biggest year ever</a> for U.S. vehicle sales, with trucks and SUVs leading the charge. This summer Americans took to the roads in record numbers. The U.S. average retail price for gasoline was $2.24 per gallon on August 29, 2016, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=27792">the lowest Labor Day price in 12 years</a>. No wonder Americans are driving more.</p>
<h2>Can fuel economy standards turn the tide?</h2>
<p>It’s hard to make predictions. Still, in retrospect, it seems clear that the years of the Great Recession were highly unusual. For decades U.S. gasoline consumption has gone up and up – driven by rising incomes – and it appears that we are now very much back on that path.</p>
<p>This all illustrates the deep challenge of reducing fossil fuel use in transportation. U.S. electricity generation, in contrast, has become considerably greener over this same period, with enormous <a href="https://theconversation.com/king-coal-is-dethroned-in-the-us-and-thats-good-news-for-the-environment-63910">declines in U.S. coal consumption</a>. Reducing gasoline consumption is harder, however. The available substitutes, such as electric vehicles and biofuels, are <a href="http://web.mit.edu/knittel/www/papers/JEP_hydro_latest.pdf">expensive</a> and <a href="http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es4045677">not necessarily less carbon-intensive</a>. For example, electric vehicles can actually <a href="http://www.dartmouth.edu/%7Emansur/papers/Holland_Mansur_Muller_Yates_ElecCarSubsidy.pdf">increase overall carbon emissions</a> in states with mostly coal-fired electricity.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/139118/original/image-20160925-13532-10la60y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/139118/original/image-20160925-13532-10la60y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/139118/original/image-20160925-13532-10la60y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139118/original/image-20160925-13532-10la60y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139118/original/image-20160925-13532-10la60y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139118/original/image-20160925-13532-10la60y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139118/original/image-20160925-13532-10la60y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/139118/original/image-20160925-13532-10la60y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How we roll: Americans are buying less fuel-efficient vehicles, such as SUVs, as gas prices go down.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">gas pump from www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Can new fuel economy standards turn the tide? Perhaps, but the new “<a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2016/01/25/new-cafe-standards-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/">footprint</a>”-based rules are yielding <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/19/business/demand-for-big-vehicles-threatens-emissions-targets.html?_r=0">smaller</a> fuel economy gains than was expected. With the new rules, the fuel economy target for each vehicle depends on its overall size (i.e., its “footprint”); so as Americans have purchased more trucks, SUVs and other large vehicles, this relaxes the overall stringency of the standard. So, yes, fuel economy <a href="http://www.umich.edu/%7Eumtriswt/EDI_sales-weighted-mpg.html">has improved</a>, but much less than it would have without this mechanism.</p>
<p>Also, automakers are <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/23/business/energy-environment/low-gas-prices-create-a-detour-on-the-road-to-greater-fuel-economy.html?_r=0">pushing back</a> hard, arguing that low gasoline prices make the standards <a href="https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2016/04/11/automakers-complain-but-cafe-loopholes-make-standards-easier-to-meet/">too hard to meet</a>. Some lawmakers have raised <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/297349-lawmakers-press-concerns-over-fuel-efficiency-rules">similar concerns</a>. The EPA’s comment window for the standards’ <a href="https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/climate/mte.htm">midterm review</a> ends Sept. 26, so we will soon have a better idea what the standards will look like moving forward.</p>
<p>Regardless of what happens, fuel economy standards have a fatal flaw that fundamentally limits their effectiveness. They can increase fuel economy, but they don’t increase the cost per mile of driving. Americans will drive <a href="http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/16jultvt/page2.cfm">3.2 trillion</a> miles in 2016, <a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/americans-are-driving-more-than-ever1/">more miles than ever before</a>. Why wouldn’t we? Gas is cheap.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65622/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucas Davis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Many people thought U.S. gasoline consumption had already peaked. They were wrong. What happened?Lucas Davis, Associate Professor, University of California, BerkeleyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/564822016-03-24T10:07:17Z2016-03-24T10:07:17ZCheap gas could delay America’s efficiency targets for cars and trucks<p>Cars and trucks in the United States are supposed to achieve great fuel efficiency gains over the next decade. But now that gasoline prices have plunged, those plans may be delayed.</p>
<p>In 2012, the National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), in collaboration with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), issued regulations that require automakers to meet progressively more stringent fuel standards to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The regulations, which cover cars and light trucks from model years 2017 to 2025, will require automakers to reach a corporate average fuel efficiency (CAFE) standard of 41 miles per gallon by model year 2021. Then, the average fuel efficiency for automakers’ vehicles needs to reach 54.5 MPG by model year 2025.</p>
<p>But the exact details of rules and the timing of their implementation are not cast in stone. Next year, the initial set of targets will come up for review, and executives at car companies have <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/auto-makers-regulators-on-fuel-economy-collision-course-1421174452?cb=logged0.9301889809816075">already suggested</a> pushing out the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/23/business/energy-environment/low-gas-prices-create-a-detour-on-the-road-to-greater-fuel-economy.html?ref=business&_r=0">timetable for complying</a>.</p>
<p>As this midterm review approaches, the key questions to consider are: first, how have fuel price projections changed since the period in which regulations were initially developed (2009-2012), and, second, what are the implications of these changes on regulatory implementation? </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://spea.indiana.edu/doc/research/working-groups/fuel-economy-policy-022016.pdf">recently published study</a>, my colleagues and I suggest how to reevaluate vehicle fuel economy and greenhouse gas regulations in the upcoming midterm review in light of the dramatic changes in the price of gasoline. </p>
<p>Among our suggestions is that fuel economy standards should be reevaluated during the midterm review to take into account expected lower fuel price and how low prices affect consumer interest in fuel-efficient vehicles. </p>
<h2>Crash in gasoline prices</h2>
<p>As anyone who has filled up lately knows, there has been a significant decrease in fuel prices since the federal CAFE and vehicle GHG regulations were developed. As a result, <a href="https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/section_energyprod.cfm#petroleum">official government projections</a> of fuel prices have been revised downward and remain relatively low through 2030.</p>
<p>Back when the regulations were being formed, the NHTSA and EPA used gasoline price projections based on the early release of the 2012 Annual Energy Outlook of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to estimate monetary savings under the regulatory program. The projection path included the following assumptions for the price per gallon of gasoline: US$3.53 in 2015, $3.76 in 2020, $4.04 in 2030 and $4.57 in 2050.</p>
<p>Since then, the world oil market has undergone significant changes. Prices have fallen, with the national <a href="http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-915-march-7-2016-average-historical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2015">average price</a> in 2015 being $2.31. EIA has revised its forecasts and <a href="http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/">now expects</a> the average national price of fuel at $2.74 in 2020 and $3.20 in 2030. </p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/QNEV5/2/" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="500"></iframe>
<p>These changes in the fuel price environment are noteworthy because consumer interest in fuel-efficient vehicles wanes with lower fuel prices and rises when prices at the pump are higher. </p>
<p>Also, automakers’ costs of complying with more stringent vehicle standards are often passed on to the consumer. Because very fuel-efficient vehicles are expected to be more expensive than their less efficient counterparts, the consumer payback period for a fuel-efficient vehicle is considerably longer in a low-fuel price environment. </p>
<p>A longer payback period can translate to lower consumer interest and, ultimately, lower vehicle sales. Sales of the hybrid Toyota Prius, for example, <a href="http://247wallst.com/autos/2016/01/21/toyota-prius-sales-drop-11/">fell for the first time in 2015</a>.</p>
<p>Consumer interest in fuel-efficient vehicles matters because an auto manufacturer’s ability to meet federal CAFE and vehicle GHG standards over time is contingent upon consumers purchasing its vehicles. Clearly, it is not enough for manufacturers to design and produce highly fuel-efficient vehicles to meet regulatory standards – consumers must also prefer these vehicles to their less fuel-efficient, more powerful models.</p>
<p>New vehicle sales matter because the automotive industry plays a central role in the health of the U.S. economy. The rate of new vehicle sales is also important because it affects the achievement of the regulations’ environmental objectives, since the rate of new vehicle sales influences the pace of retirement of old vehicles from the fleet. </p>
<p>Thus, in light of changes to fuel price projections, and related expectations about consumer payback periods and new vehicles sales, my colleagues and I concluded that federal CAFE and vehicle greenhouse gas regulations should be reevaluated during midterm reviews. </p>
<h2>Linking gas prices to regulations</h2>
<p>How should regulators alter the fuel efficiency targets in a way that considers environmental goals, consumer interest and the economic impact of vehicle sales? </p>
<p>Regulators could link the pace of the efficiency targets to EIA forecasts of fuel prices for model years 2022-2025. EIA will publish forecasts of 2025 fuel prices annually between now and 2025, drawing from the best available information on global oil markets and other factors that influence fuel prices in the U.S. </p>
<p>Using those data, regulators could adjust the requirements for complying with the regulations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/116104/original/image-20160322-32291-adxsej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/116104/original/image-20160322-32291-adxsej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/116104/original/image-20160322-32291-adxsej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116104/original/image-20160322-32291-adxsej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116104/original/image-20160322-32291-adxsej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116104/original/image-20160322-32291-adxsej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116104/original/image-20160322-32291-adxsej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/116104/original/image-20160322-32291-adxsej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As gas prices have gone down, American consumers have started driving more and buying bigger, less fuel-efficient cars and trucks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/librariesrock/16378928540/in/photolist-qXmhPE-rLRH7r-BnFwbX-rxbcxg-raWezm-rYsRcQ-BEYTzt-qKbrgr-qodSpx-AYFBUy-qL9EzW-rzHxCz-rS4LwQ-rhogKT-rcFHHJ-rMT7dY-qUbMcN-qJHHPm-rbZ3yP-CVF2RM-qFNGdC-qPrfEf-r7HJm5-rQfjCA-CWe7yr-qpNjT8-ri7s1E-ALuA5T-qYft4H-s2dFRU-r4v2wE-AKv9MB-CDBhZB-B6DCmr-qKVhp6-qGf7K8-pNZtk1-qNjyM4-zNBF8x-BZfH3S-qLkm1L-rtDYcv-qNabun-BB4nZf-qaCPeq-sg5sBx-BMxCJn-ra7bJf-rbM1kX-s29NSq">librariesrock/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The NHTSA and EPA should not adjust regulatory requirements annually, since manufacturers need sufficient lead time – four to six years for a new model – to adjust their product plans for new regulatory requirements. But, EPA and NHTSA could design, in the midterm review process, a planned linkage between fuel forecasts for 2025 and the 2022-2025 regulatory requirements. </p>
<p>Here is a hypothetical illustration of how fuel-price forecasts might be linked to regulatory requirements. If EIA’s fuel price forecasts for 2025 rise significantly above $4 per gallon by 2020, then the federal requirements for model years 2022 to 2025 might remain as currently scheduled. </p>
<p>If those fuel price forecasts for 2025 are less than $3 per gallon, then the ramp-up should be slowed considerably, possibly stretched out to 2035. If fuel price forecasts for 2025 land between $3 and $4 per gallon, then a stretch-out to 2030 might be appropriate.</p>
<p>The review process formally kicks off in mid-2016 when the NHTSA and EPA publish a draft technical assessment report. Given how much has changed since the rules were first written, it makes sense for regulators to reconsider these rules. A good way to do that would be to explicitly link gas prices with fuel efficiency mandates. Although this linkage could delay the rules’ implementation, this method ultimately achieves both environmental and economic goals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56482/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Saba Siddiki receives funding from the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.</span></em></p>Faced with stringent fuel economy standards but cheap gas, automakers may seek to delay CAFE rules. What’s the best way to reevaluate these emissions-cutting rules?Saba Siddiki, Assistant Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, IUPUILicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/544462016-03-17T10:07:38Z2016-03-17T10:07:38ZWill cheap gas at the pump stall progress on car emissions?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115160/original/image-20160315-9235-1re09d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Americans like big vehicles – a serious challenge to reducing emissions. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/chrisgold/10920277215/in/photolist-hCZgXD-7zbBcL-dLttDu-5yd8Zx-BA5dw-oD2njn-dQCkth-7dcVJR-dU832k-nNeKZ-pRZyoT-fJQjzx-9Yz2-9f4xjS-mfZKSf-XYfcn-3hoDC2-hHu1AK-5KQS7G-79UQCP-hzr9Az-em4o6F-dxMAGd-ifeWpG-n9Zrub-3da45P-7ZV59S-6FC398-4Vm6cX-7x3MEy-8M8Q8-dvNip7-oBA99-7fQ6qB-7qFeSQ-9ZHcJG-eGfjef-DEQU7-3ih8Y-6yHKtj-kZtFC-d9H9mZ-bMuNr2-GaAzi-nsxmRv-bQjTfp-bofoWD-aSe9Mz-7JLWV-ce6U">chrisgold/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Retail gasoline prices are now as low as they were in the “roaring ‘90s.” The 1990s, that is, when the energy crisis of the 1970s had faded from American consumers’ memories, the economy was strong and the market share of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) had <a href="http://nepis.epa.gov/Exe/ZyPDF.cgi/P100MHPK.PDF?Dockey=P100MHPK.PDF">more than tripled over the decade</a>.</p>
<p>As in the 1990s, low-cost gasoline is changing consumers’ habits, encouraging them to drive more and purchase less fuel-efficient vehicles. What’s different now is that U.S. automakers face far more stringent fuel-economy standards. The rules, which require automakers to have a fleet-wide, on-road average of roughly 40 miles per gallon by 2025, are the country’s primary policy for reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from motor vehicles. </p>
<p>However, fuel prices have plummeted since these rules were put in place. What does cheap gasoline mean for the country’s progress in reducing emissions? </p>
<p>To answer this question, we need to look at the interplay between gas prices and consumer behavior. We also need to consider the impact that technology and policy can have – and cannot have – on reducing emissions from motor vehicles.</p>
<h2>Deja vu all over again</h2>
<p>When pump prices are high, consumers are motivated to drive less and choose fuel-efficient vehicles. As prices moderate, there is a weaker financial motive to economize on gas, making emissions reduction more difficult. This puts a greater burden on policy to sustain progress in spite of consumer disinterest. </p>
<p>Petroleum is the <a href="http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/index.cfm">largest source</a> of CO₂ emissions in the United States and, after coal, the <a href="http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/">second largest globally</a>. Petroleum use is driven by demand for motor fuels, of which cars and personal light trucks consume the <a href="http://cta.ornl.gov/data/tedb34/Spreadsheets/Figure2_06.xls">largest share</a>. Because a car’s CO₂ emissions are <a href="http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/climate.shtml">directly linked</a> to its fuel economy, any gain in fuel efficiency results in lower CO₂. </p>
<p>For example, an SUV that gets 20 mpg emits 5.3 metric tons of CO₂ during a typical 12,000 miles per year of driving, while a 30 mpg sedan emits 3.6 tons to cover the same distance. </p>
<p>For over a year now, the national average fuel price has been <a href="http://fuelgaugereport.aaa.com/todays-gas-prices/">much lower</a> than the roughly US$3.50 per gallon average of the previous few years, let alone the brief spike to over $4.00 per gallon in summer 2008. </p>
<p>The University of Michigan Energy Survey’s <a href="http://www.energy.umich.edu/news-events/news/2016/02/17/energy-survey-how-affordable-our-energy-heres-what-consumers-say-october">affordability index</a> earlier this year found that consumers feel gasoline is twice as affordable as it was before oil prices began sliding in mid-2014. </p>
<p>It’s no surprise, then, that new vehicle sales are at a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-autos-idUSKBN0UJ1C620160105">record high</a> while the sales mix has shifted away from compact segments and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/02/business/auto-sales-rose-in-february-as-americans-replace-older-models.html">back to trucks</a>, <a href="http://mediaroom.kbb.com/record-new-car-transaction-prices-reported-december-2015">larger SUVs and more luxurious cars</a>. </p>
<p>The amount of <a href="http://www.transtats.bts.gov/OSEA/SeasonalAdjustment/">driving is up again</a> as well. We’ve seen this situation before when the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/01/opinion/01Straight.html">energy crisis</a> of a generation ago gave way to a resumption of consumption after oil prices tumbled in 1986. </p>
<p>The adjoining graph compares the average fuel economy of new cars and light trucks to the nominal (“dollars of the day”) and real (inflated to 2015 dollars) price of gasoline since 1970. As the graph shows, fuel economy ratchets up as fuel prices rise. Conversely, low and stable fuel prices can cause fuel economy to backslide, which occurred from the late 1980s until a decade ago. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114240/original/image-20160308-15334-1wkk6bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114240/original/image-20160308-15334-1wkk6bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114240/original/image-20160308-15334-1wkk6bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114240/original/image-20160308-15334-1wkk6bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114240/original/image-20160308-15334-1wkk6bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=396&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114240/original/image-20160308-15334-1wkk6bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114240/original/image-20160308-15334-1wkk6bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114240/original/image-20160308-15334-1wkk6bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. average retail gasoline prices and new light duty vehicle fuel economy since 1970.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the 1990s, overall vehicle efficiency eroded as consumer tastes and automaker sales strategies fostered a shift to light trucks (vans, SUVs and pickups), which are regulated more leniently than the cars (sedans, coupes and station wagons) they displaced. </p>
<p>A similar shift is again under way now, reflecting the tension between consumer buying habits and the need to cut carbon. </p>
<h2>Technology and importance of scale</h2>
<p>The relation between technology and efficiency, meanwhile, is more subtle than it might seem to observers outside the industry. </p>
<p>The graph seems to suggest that technological progress for better fuel efficiency happened in spurts triggered by periods of rising fuel price. </p>
<p>In fact, as measured by engineering metrics, the rate of technology change has been remarkably steady throughout this whole time period from the 1970s to date, as documented in a <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.4271/2007-01-1325">paper</a> I coauthored a decade ago and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.12.083">confirmed more recently</a> by colleagues from MIT. That is to say, automakers are continually improving the engineering of vehicles whether or not the improvements are used to raise fuel economy. </p>
<p>In other words, regardless of the fuel price situation, there is always a latent potential to improve efficiency as vehicles are routinely redesigned and new models are introduced. But the extent to which the potential is realized depends on the priority given to higher fuel economy relative to other features customers value and automakers can readily sell. </p>
<p>This means that modest changes in how much consumers prioritize fuel efficiency can significantly affect CO₂ emissions, for either better or worse. If millions of consumers choose a larger or smaller vehicle, or select a higher or lower horsepower engine, it will have a far greater impact than a small niche of eco-minded consumers who purchase battery-electric or hydrogen vehicles. </p>
<h2>Whither electric vehicles?</h2>
<p>In an <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electric-moniz-idUSKCN0UZ2MK">interview</a> about recent auto market trends, U.S. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz conceded that electric vehicle (EV) sales were well behind the Administration’s goal of putting a million plug-in cars on the road by last year. Moniz seemed unconcerned about the shift back to SUVs and instead emphasized the importance of a “long-term view.” </p>
<p>How do slowing sales of EVs, due at least in part to cheap gasoline, affect emissions? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115164/original/image-20160315-9235-16nek4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115164/original/image-20160315-9235-16nek4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115164/original/image-20160315-9235-16nek4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115164/original/image-20160315-9235-16nek4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115164/original/image-20160315-9235-16nek4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=411&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115164/original/image-20160315-9235-16nek4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115164/original/image-20160315-9235-16nek4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115164/original/image-20160315-9235-16nek4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=516&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Plug-in electric vehicles are cleaner, but because volumes are relatively low, their impact on emissions reductions is much lower than any gains in the giant gasoline-engine market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/portlandgeneralelectric/5180303728/in/photolist-8TLpPw-8THjga-bvsL6A-sgBwuq-bsBAtk-ffoscB-bvsLnw-bJnxPD-bJnxkz-bvsLK9-bJnxDz-bvsLsQ-bvsLqy-bvsLEU-bJnx5t-nZBbFB-9oKVB5-aGMduR-bmc74i-bvsLaW-noxtSS-bd89iV-9k1HcQ-bSYRNp-9jXFAk-iQesfG-oNgr2b-8mkQi2-7gVrkj-ao4zpD-8THiPc-r3XSyF-eb7TV5-pMdAPf-f72cu1-7MAU9i-6AWLZr-bmc8np-dyiwS-dhZmDo-dCoRvC-bvsLij-bJnxwr-bvsLdC-8WvPx1-bWCEKC-bmd2kZ-dnuUDn-bPRx5t-p972Ck">portlandgeneralelectric/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It is instructive to compare the effect of mainstream market shifts to the sales of EVs such as the Nissan Leaf (a battery-only car) or Chevy Volt (a plug-in hybrid with a small gasoline engine to extend its range). The EV market got a boost in 2008, which saw the launch of the high-profile Tesla Roadster along with spiking oil prices. </p>
<p>Bolstered by tax credits and other generous subsidies, plug-in car sales grew rapidly and there are now <a href="http://www.hybridcars.com/electric-car/">over two dozen</a> models available that charge from the electric grid for some or all of their energy. <a href="http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/">EV sales</a> reached just over 122,000 by 2014, but have since fallen in the face of lower fuel prices, dropping to 116,000 in 2015 even as overall auto sales hit a new high. </p>
<p>EVs directly emit no CO₂ when running on battery power alone. Accounting for power plant emissions but recognizing that <a href="http://www.hybridcars.com/californians-bought-more-plug-in-cars-than-china-last-year/">most EV sales</a> have occurred in California and other states with cleaner-than-average electric grids, the typical electric car <a href="http://autoecorating.com/what-goes-into-my-ev/">emits only about one-fourth</a> of the CO₂ of a similarly sized gasoline car. </p>
<p>Based on that assumption and sales data, I estimate that the new EVs sold in 2015 cut CO₂ emissions by roughly 0.26 million metric tons per year. </p>
<p>On the other hand, the market share of vehicles that EPA classifies as light trucks for regulatory purposes <a href="https://www3.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm">rose from 33 percent to 40 percent</a> over the past six years. That seven-point shift from relatively efficient cars to less efficient light trucks implies a CO₂ emissions increase of 1.76 million metric tons per year, more than six times the emissions reduction from EVs. </p>
<p>In other words, waning interest in fuel economy across the mainstream market slows climate progress much more than lagging sales of electric cars. </p>
<h2>Social challenge</h2>
<p>Unfortunately, efforts to promote more fuel-efficient vehicles across the entire market are not nearly as robust as the social marketing, to say nothing of monetary incentives, directed at the electric and other alternative fuel niches. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18264">2013 study</a> published by the National Academy of Sciences (for which I was a committee member) concluded that even for several decades ahead, the most substantial and lowest-cost ways to cut automobile CO₂ emissions will still be ongoing improvements of gasoline vehicles. The study also found that even with good progress in battery technology, it will not be feasible to electrify most SUVs and other light trucks, which emit a disproportionate amount of CO₂. Trying to run larger vehicles from a battery results in a vicious cycle of heavier weight and higher costs that would render the resulting vehicle both impractical and exorbitantly expensive. </p>
<p>Automakers are regulated by a combination of Corporate Average Fuel Economy (<a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy">CAFE</a>) standards and <a href="http://www3.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm">greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards</a>, which, relative to the 2015 level, target a further 40 percent cut in the new fleet-average CO₂ emissions rate of both cars and light trucks by 2025. A National Academy <a href="http://www.nap.edu/catalog/21744/cost-effectiveness-and-deployment-of-fuel-economy-technologies-for-light-duty-vehicles">study published last year</a> found that ample technology is available to meet the 2025 target. </p>
<p>As these regulations come up for review next year, the greater challenge will be weak consumer interest in efficiency, which makes it more profitable for automakers to offer still higher horsepower, larger vehicles and other features that trade off against fuel economy. </p>
<p>The question, then, is whether ways can be found to bolster consumer interest in fuel economy for environmental rather than economic reasons, so that progress can be maintained even when fuel prices are low. </p>
<p>Indeed, the misalignment between consumer interest and the need for ongoing efficiency gains may only grow in the years ahead. Periods of high oil prices are likely to be transient for the foreseeable future if not indefinitely. This situation will require new approaches by policymakers, automakers and environmental advocates, as well as creative social science research. </p>
<p>Successfully confronting the social challenge of encouraging consumers to prioritize fuel efficiency – across the broad market of gasoline-powered personal vehicles – will open the door to greater progress on the car part of the climate challenge than can be achieved through technology alone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54446/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John DeCicco's work is supported by the University of Michigan Energy Institute, whose financial partners and advisory board members include federal agencies, national laboratories, energy, financial, automotive and other manufacturing companies and nonprofit organizations.</span></em></p>American consumers just aren’t prioritizing fuel efficiency in a time of low gasoline prices. Is there a way to reverse the trend and make progress on climate change?John DeCicco, Research Professor, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/531972016-02-08T09:52:13Z2016-02-08T09:52:13ZHow should America fund its highways in the 21st century?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110502/original/image-20160205-18274-pe3pky.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A White House proposal to tax crude oil would address the U.S.'s perennially underfunded highway maintenance program.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottummy/4971054099/in/photolist-8zgXci-8VSQn3-iMgrDo-hY7gt-4aPrrM-f5qENK-kHhMdQ-axPUxs-9tbMC6-nT66r5-5pZvcD-bFeVpw-hjCyMP-4T8Hn5-6RpP4A-pjXYPu-aLAZWV-phu8PN-8K5XCi-nbTU3P-93P33G-8HFhF-p3cfEa-w9XLw3-FfhYM-8DbBhM-bFf8uh-5YqdiZ-aqtYNJ-gmz647-8ZQk9F-bVZGSY-6UyqF-Bk8c77-t7Fwom-qrjmYC-bybXVs-o1Z42L-nW1MBf-jdhSFz-8NgXZ6-sKBRQD-GWTyL-6XaH8B-eR6vnH-4NgaAz-77gN8T-fFYGj9-gu4eSu-eRhTco">scottummy/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Falling gasoline prices have sparked a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-should-america-do-with-its-2-per-gallon-gas-windfall-52258">comeback among gas guzzlers</a>, and the Obama administration wants to stop it in its tracks. </p>
<p>The White House last week proposed <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/02/04/fact-sheet-president-obamas-21st-century-clean-transportation-system">making crude oil more expensive</a> by imposing a new tax of US$10 a barrel. The money would go toward improving the current highway infrastructure and invest in regional transportation systems to reduce road congestion and pollution. </p>
<p>The proposal comes just days after the average U.S. gasoline price <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/25/average-us-gas-price-drops-14-cents-in-two-weeks-lundberg.html">fell below</a> $2 per gallon for the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w">first time</a> since 2008. </p>
<p>Cheap gasoline raises the perennial question over how the U.S. funds its transportation infrastructure – a key rationale behind Obama’s proposed oil tax. And it makes electric vehicles (EVs) and biofuels less competitive on price, hindering U.S. efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and oil consumption. </p>
<p>Can the U.S. continue to fund upkeep of its infrastructure and reduce emissions from transportation? </p>
<h2>Less appeal to cleaner EVs</h2>
<p>Consumers have a growing number of electric vehicles to choose from, but cheap gasoline means the payback period for electric vehicles – the time it takes to recoup the higher upfront cost in fuel – is now <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/15/automobiles/wheels/with-gas-prices-less-of-a-worry-buyers-pass-hybrids-cars-by.html?_r=2">much longer</a> than a few years ago, sometimes as long as 10 years. Consumers have responded by buying <a href="http://www.wpr.org/now-time-raise-gas-tax-engineer-says">more gasoline</a> and <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2015/04/21/autos/electric-car-hybrid-for-suv/">trading in</a> their <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/plug-in-electric-vehicles-left-behind-in-u-s-autos-record-year">electric vehicles</a> for <a href="http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html">SUVs</a>.</p>
<p>Americans are also driving more and recently set a <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/DOT-Miles-Traveled.php">new record</a> for miles driven, the first since 2007.</p>
<p>The big reductions to electric vehicle battery costs – considered a cost barrier to broader sales – seen in recent years have been overwhelmed by cheap gasoline. A McKinsey <a href="http://www.npolicy.org/userfiles/image/Oct2013-Heck.pdf">analysis</a> calculates that electric vehicles are competitive with current gasoline prices only once current battery prices are cut in half – something that could take up to a <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html">decade</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110517/original/image-20160206-18264-qj2x31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110517/original/image-20160206-18264-qj2x31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110517/original/image-20160206-18264-qj2x31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110517/original/image-20160206-18264-qj2x31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110517/original/image-20160206-18264-qj2x31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110517/original/image-20160206-18264-qj2x31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110517/original/image-20160206-18264-qj2x31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110517/original/image-20160206-18264-qj2x31.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tax on every gallon of gas or diesel funds highway upkeep – and cheap gas is leading to an increase in gas sales.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/viriyincy/4507034622/in/photolist-7SgJnu-xhv9jy-qGELm2-qonNbj-cMHKMS-d1Nybo-fqhMJH-6LkoqS-fnT6Xp-daTduk-nLcuNM-cMHKCJ-cMHE2u-bW1mtm-cMHDH1-6kzWPm-daTbq7-cMHFaf-cMHGXy-mMBTw-jU5hsR-7peCSC-njqt5G-6kzV6S-cMHLAy-ij1cN-m51GMw-d1EXtb-fbt9cg-9f6DqL-pHWvC3-oRqyK9-8HLjQw-nmrbfG-5zYEXN-rA6k9T-9pFarq-uFrGvk-8rhA6d-gxom3S-9BmC33-pdaKqg-acHWfH-9gLMx3-k9rgBM-aqtYNJ-ruHtC8-xYYJF4-pd7soU-fnThir">viriyincy/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Biofuels are also struggling to compete with inexpensive gasoline and diesel fuel. </p>
<p>The profit margins of biofuels are determined by the prices of their biomass feedstocks – whether it’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/corn-ethanol-the-rise-and-fall-of-a-political-force-54030">corn</a> or sugar cane – and that of gasoline or diesel fuel. Fuel prices have fallen by a larger amount than feedstock prices have over the last year, causing biofuel profit margins to <a href="http://www.card.iastate.edu/research/bio/tools/hist_eth_gm.aspx">approach zero</a>.</p>
<h2>A ‘toll’ for highway funding</h2>
<p>On the other hand, low gasoline prices are good news for the country’s national highway system, which received <a href="http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/roads/">a “D” grade</a> on the most recent Report Card for America’s Infrastructure. The federal fuel tax is applied to every gallon of gasoline sold rather than its price. <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_prim_dcu_nus_m.htm">Higher demand</a> for and consumption of gasoline therefore should generate additional tax revenue. </p>
<p>The American Society of Civil Engineers calculates that <a href="http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/roads/">$170 billion</a> in annual investment is needed to “significantly improve” the country’s roads. Actual spending has not kept up and the Highway Trust Fund, which finances spending on national roadways, <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/242991-congress-sets-new-deadline-on-highways">nearly went broke</a> last year.</p>
<p>Funding for America’s interstate system has not met requirements in recent years because of the way its maintenance is funded. In 1956 Congress created excise taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel to finance highway construction. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110504/original/image-20160205-18289-1bnx295.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110504/original/image-20160205-18289-1bnx295.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110504/original/image-20160205-18289-1bnx295.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110504/original/image-20160205-18289-1bnx295.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110504/original/image-20160205-18289-1bnx295.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=767&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110504/original/image-20160205-18289-1bnx295.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110504/original/image-20160205-18289-1bnx295.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110504/original/image-20160205-18289-1bnx295.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=964&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Remember these days? Higher gas costs meant sales of more efficient vehicles – and less revenue for highway maintenance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/altopower/2543527492/">altopower/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The fuel taxes, the revenues of which were (and still are) paid into the Highway Trust Fund, were considered to be more equitable than the previous method of funding highways with income tax revenues. The amount of income tax paid by a taxpayer is a function of overall income, meaning that highways were originally financed by the wealthiest Americans rather than by the drivers using them. </p>
<p>The fuel tax, on the other hand, is similar to a toll in that the individuals getting the most use out of the highways also contribute the most money to their upkeep.</p>
<p>The 1950s and ‘60s saw booming demand for gasoline as Americans bought more cars and spent more time driving. Those cars also achieved poor gas mileage, although drivers didn’t mind since gasoline was inexpensive. U.S. gasoline and diesel fuel consumption increased until 2008, and fuel tax revenues rose with it. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, the fuel tax has remained at $0.184 per gallon for gasoline and $0.244 per gallon for diesel fuel since 1993.</p>
<h2>Dampening demand</h2>
<p>In the mid- to late 2000s, gasoline prices rose and encouraged Americans to buy fuel-efficient vehicles. In parallel, the federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards have required them to increase the fuel mileage of their vehicles since the 1970s. </p>
<p>Also, younger drivers have opted to drive less, preferring to use mass transit or new ride-share programs. The <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/DOT-Miles-Traveled.php">total miles driven</a> by Americans peaked in November 2007 as a result and then declined over the next several years. </p>
<p>The combination of less driving and improved fuel mileage caused gasoline consumption <a href="http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_a_EPM0F_VPP_mbbl_a.htm">to also peak</a> in 2007 (rapid ethanol consumption growth also contributed).</p>
<iframe id="eia_widget" caption="tk" style="width:100%;height:500px" src="https://www.eia.gov/opendata/embed/iframe.php?series_id=PET.MGFUPUS1.A" load="iframe_load" width="100%" height="400"> </iframe>
<p>The CAFE standards have become more ambitious under the Obama administration, pushing the average mileage for cars and light trucks from 30 miles per gallon in 2012 to 49 miles per gallon in 2025. </p>
<p>This increase will cause the average <a href="http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/sources/transportation.html">greenhouse gas emissions of cars and light trucks</a> to fall by 45 percent over the same period. However, improved fuel efficiency means lower fuel consumption. That reduces tax revenues for the Highway Trust Fund. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109410/original/image-20160127-26785-uk459a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109410/original/image-20160127-26785-uk459a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/109410/original/image-20160127-26785-uk459a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109410/original/image-20160127-26785-uk459a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109410/original/image-20160127-26785-uk459a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109410/original/image-20160127-26785-uk459a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109410/original/image-20160127-26785-uk459a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/109410/original/image-20160127-26785-uk459a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">CAFE standards for combined cars and light trucks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Center for Climate and Energy Solutions</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Fuel efficiency and highway upkeep</h2>
<p>American policymakers have recognized that the CAFE standards cannot coexist with the current fuel taxes and have offered multiple proposals for fixing the dilemma. A rebound in oil prices next year, as <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-03/oil-seen-surging-about-50-by-fourth-quarter-as-supply-eases">some expect</a>, could turn consumers to more efficient vehicles again, again cutting proceeds to the Highway Trust Fund.</p>
<p>The first proposal is to “top up” the Highway Trust Fund with income tax revenues, a short-term solution that has been <a href="http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/highwaytrustfund/">resorted to</a> in the past and <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/252950-feds-highway-funding-will-last-until-june-2016">as recently</a> as last July. </p>
<p>Another short-term solution proposed by the Obama administration would finance highway construction by requiring corporations to pay taxes on profits <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/237369-white-house-sends-478b-highway-bill-to-congress">stored overseas</a>. Both proposals are flawed in that they weaken the venerable connection between those paying for the highways and those using them.</p>
<p>A third proposal is to take advantage of low gasoline prices by increasing the fuel tax. To make this acceptable in a general election year, the increase <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/247311-gop-bill-would-hike-gas-tax-by-10-cents">would be offset</a> by an income tax credit to make it revenue-neutral. </p>
<p>A major problem with the tax increase on fuel is that it wouldn’t reduce all crude oil consumption. Roughly <a href="http://energy.gov/articles/hows-and-whys-replacing-whole-barrel">two-thirds of every barrel</a> that is refined produces gasoline and diesel fuel. The rest is refined into everyday products such as jet fuel, commodity chemicals and asphalt. Raising the fuel tax doesn’t discourage the consumption of these other fossil fuel products as a result. </p>
<p>The White House’s $10 tax on every barrel of crude oil used in the U.S. would have a similar effect to a higher fuel tax by discouraging gas guzzlers. And it would create a greater financial incentive for green alternatives to petroleum-based products, such as development of <a href="http://www.jsonline.com/business/coke-virent-debut-plastic-bottle-made-100-from-plant-materials-b99512814z1-306029011.html">renewable plastics</a> and <a href="http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2015/05/10/avello-bioenergy-biofuels-digests-2015-5-minute-guide/">biobased asphalt</a>. The proceeds of the tax would also fund necessary investments in the transportation system.</p>
<p>But the crude oil tax proposal faces <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/obama-oil-tax-gop-reaction-218774">strong opposition in Congress</a> and has no chance of becoming law before November’s general election. Despite this, the debate over it that will follow in the coming weeks will illustrate the importance of finding new ways of funding America’s highways in the 21st century. </p>
<p>It’s also a reminder of the steep challenge of funding our transportation infrastructure in a way that both political parties can agree on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53197/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tristan R. Brown owns a diverse portfolio of shares in energy production companies.</span></em></p>Obama’s proposal to add $10 tax to crude oil raises the thorny question of whether the U.S. can continue to fund its highway infrastructure with a fuel tax that hasn’t changed since 1993.Tristan R. Brown, Assistant Professor of Energy Resource Economics, State University of New York College of Environmental Science and ForestryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/522582015-12-21T11:09:30Z2015-12-21T11:09:30ZWhat should America do with its $2-per-gallon gas windfall?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106538/original/image-20151217-8068-1j1odoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Going down: Prices in Texas in November 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/saintseminole/22704549636/in/photolist-AAjKAm-zsZ7mh-zt851i-AoPoz3-AoPmSf-Aq1MBF-A8poam-Ar16WD-AnHrbY-A8ph6s-AnHnrU-AoP9hq-zsYM99-zsYKRu-AoP5kY-Aq1vXK-AnHeoj-A8p5N7-AkEGzM-A1tViq-zX3gvY-zTk1jp-zzAqRH-ypBNQ2-ypnhti-zmfwmp-z4CDTS-z4CDV5-ypnhnX-yZDiG7-yTuWMU-yD3yDf-xNexXk-yHDgZk-xHTYYM-yDHDQ1-yDGsww-AeyQa9-yzii6C-yfoxih-xt3qXq-yp8UwY-y8y33p-yqMmNK-y8rTMu-xt3qGq-yq4WUt-ynJwjs-xs8WZL-ymcGNh">saintseminole/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>American consumers have been enjoying Christmas since July – that is, July 2014, when the average price for all grades of gasoline peaked at US$3.75 per gallon, according to the <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPM0_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W">Energy Information Administration</a>. Since then, prices have declined substantially, as every motorist knows: to $2.90 by Thanksgiving 2014 and to $2.14 as we approach the end of 2015. In many parts of the country, the price of regular gasoline is well below $2 per gallon today.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106571/original/image-20151217-8104-yd3olb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106571/original/image-20151217-8104-yd3olb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106571/original/image-20151217-8104-yd3olb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106571/original/image-20151217-8104-yd3olb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106571/original/image-20151217-8104-yd3olb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=960&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106571/original/image-20151217-8104-yd3olb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1206&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106571/original/image-20151217-8104-yd3olb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1206&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106571/original/image-20151217-8104-yd3olb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1206&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/">Energy Information Administration.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For consumers, this is unquestionably a financial windfall. There are losers too, of course, especially across the petroleum and fuels industry. </p>
<p>But from a societal perspective – from consumer behavior to public policy – how should we view this change and the likelihood of low energy prices for the longer term, even if they rebound from today’s lows? </p>
<h2>Voting with their wallets</h2>
<p>The behavioral response of consumers to falling gas prices has been rapid, and from the perspective of greenhouse gas emissions and the climate, not good. </p>
<p>Gasoline retail sales in the US are up a <a href="https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=a103600001&f=m">whopping 28%</a> for the first nine months of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014, according to the EIA. There are longer-term consequences of current consumer choices as well. According to the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, the <a href="http://www.umich.edu/%7Eumtriswt/EDI_sales-weighted-mpg.html">average gas mileage of new vehicles sold</a> in the US has decreased from a record high of 25.8 miles per gallon (mpg) in the summer of 2014 to 25.0 mpg in November 2015. </p>
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<p>That translates into a 5% increase in emissions from new vehicles over that period. That may not sound like much, but in the face of the US commitment ahead of the COP21 Paris climate summit to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 28% by 2025, it is clearly a step in the wrong direction.</p>
<p>While consumer response to changes in the energy landscape has been swift, attitudes and policies have been much slower to change. In some ways we are still captive to thinking in terms of energy shortages from the oil shocks of the 1970s and ‘80’s, reinforced by occasional gasoline price spikes including those in 2008 and 2011 above $4 per gallon. </p>
<p>Policy has been slow to recognize this reality as well. Recall that today’s controversial Renewable Fuel Standard mandate for biofuel production was set by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. At the time, emissions reductions were a far less prominent portion of the rationale for this act; growing a supply of domestic alternative fuels was the priority.</p>
<p>Now, we need new supplies of carbon-free energy, not because we face energy insecurity or because our consumption is rising, but because we urgently need to reduce climate-changing GHG emissions. </p>
<p>As we have seen with consumers buying less fuel-efficient vehicles in the past year, this challenge is doubly difficult in the era of relatively cheap and abundant fossil fuels. That is the stark backdrop to the COP21 agreement. Intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) to GHG emissions reduction would limit the average global temperature to “only” 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels in the best of cases.</p>
<h2>Fixing roads</h2>
<p>Financial windfall or carbon calamity, have we missed an opportunity? Perhaps, but we need not continue to do so.</p>
<p>Imagine that a comparable windfall for typical workers had come not in the form of a drop in fuel prices, but as an end-of-year bonus from employers. Between federal and state income taxes, Medicare and Social Security deductions, the average worker would likely take home no more than 80 cents of each bonus dollar. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106548/original/image-20151217-8112-1jc8l07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106548/original/image-20151217-8112-1jc8l07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106548/original/image-20151217-8112-1jc8l07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106548/original/image-20151217-8112-1jc8l07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106548/original/image-20151217-8112-1jc8l07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106548/original/image-20151217-8112-1jc8l07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106548/original/image-20151217-8112-1jc8l07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106548/original/image-20151217-8112-1jc8l07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Many American roads and highways need upgrading, and states often struggle to have enough money for maintenance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/vadot/4442608617/in/photolist-7LzwLi-7LDwJd-7LzyqV-2EZmT3-bBghL9-7jwuYS-8E1QGD-amBs6v-qdr1yk-6Z6iht-dScgZk-66KVzK-fAAeg7-8b4k9s-z3Unj-6xM8nM-z3Ux9-5zXYDM-7jwtQm-7LDuJQ-7jwtj5-7jsAZn-7jsBjV-7jsB9v-7jsAEZ-7jwu15-7jsAND-7jwttJ-7jwtE5-8kR4Aw-49KiBT-6Z6iwg-aQFcfH-nvTxga-7xGRfM-qsqt9t-7GTKPZ-jU5WpT-rHcSG3-nbGi3g-6xM8wK-eFqzvV-d5S71h-d5S7Xu-d5Savd-d5S94A-6xRgjU-7GXLaJ-6msNwK-7GU3hR">Tom Saunders, Virginia Department of Transportion</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What if we were able to capture a similar fraction of the gas price windfall for investment in our energy and transportation future? What could we do with the 32 cents per gallon that represents 20% of the gasoline price drop since July 2014?</p>
<p>In Michigan, the legislature struggled for a year to come up with a formula to generate $1 billion for badly needed road repairs. If that amount were funded entirely from a tax on transportation fuels, it would require a tax increase of about 25 cents per gallon. </p>
<p>Nationally, we could invest not only in roads, but in clean-energy research, and in accelerating the deployment of clean-energy generation and new and improved energy infrastructure. We could complement the requirements imposed by <a href="http://www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy">CAFE</a> (corporate average fuel economy) vehicle fuel-efficiency standards and the Clean Power Plan to limit carbon emissions from power plants with incentives and investments that would make both more successful in reducing GHG emissions.</p>
<p>Better yet, the modestly higher price that would result from, for example, a higher gasoline tax could help moderate the trend of purchasing less fuel-efficient vehicles. Regardless of the short-term appeal or the longer-term economics behind consumers’ decisions, the lower mileage vehicles being purchased today may remain on the road for 20 years, making the difficult challenge of significant emissions reductions even tougher. </p>
<p>So the answer to the question whether $2-per-gallon gasoline is a windfall, a calamity or a missed opportunity is “all of the above.” However, we needn’t continue to miss the opportunity provided by low energy prices. We need the will to forego a portion of the immediate benefits and to show the leadership and political courage to enact policies that make sustained investments in infrastructure and in a cleaner energy future. By doing so we will benefit not only ourselves, but our children and our fellow citizens of the earth.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/52258/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Barteau does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With cheaper gas, consumers are buying fewer fuel-efficient vehicles – a step backwards on climate, energy security and upkeep of our highway and bridges.Mark Barteau, Director, University of Michigan Energy Institute, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.