tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/high-speed-rail-2024/articlesHigh speed rail – The Conversation2023-09-28T16:40:37Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2145062023-09-28T16:40:37Z2023-09-28T16:40:37ZHow HS2 caused the UK to lose focus on ‘levelling up’ during years of high-speed rail delays<p>Pressure on the UK government to confirm its plans for the controversial HS2 high-speed rail project is growing as the Conservative party prepares for its annual conference.</p>
<p>Much of the country is keen to hear about the fate of HS2. But since the conference is being held in Manchester, one of the northern cities set to benefit from HS2 if it goes ahead, this is intensifying calls for a decision.</p>
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<p>The UK’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, and chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, are weighing up the rising costs versus the benefits of HS2. In particular, they must decide on whether the high-speed rail line should continue beyond Birmingham. The eastern link to Leeds has already been cancelled, and the leg to the East Midlands is yet to be confirmed. </p>
<p>Now, rising costs mean HS2 could also terminate at Old Oak Common in West London, rather than its original Euston terminus in central London. This would turn a high-speed connection between major English cities into the “<a href="https://www.christianwolmar.co.uk/2023/08/why-is-hs2-costing-so-much/">Acton to Aston line</a>”.</p>
<p>The idea behind HS2 was to generate prosperity and opportunity for areas of the country suffering disadvantage. But do high-speed trains represent the most effective way of doing this? </p>
<p>Although Sunak continues to voice his commitment to <a href="https://levellingup.campaign.gov.uk/">levelling up</a> and “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hs2-rail-project-costs-planned-route-latest-b2418488.html#:%7E:text=levelling%20up%20and-,spreading%20opportunity,-around%20the%20country">spreading opportunity around the country</a>”, UK high-speed rail links do not seem to offer value for money in the current environment of rising costs. </p>
<h2>The rising costs of HS2</h2>
<p>Over the decade since 2013, when construction commenced on the first phase of HS2, it has come under regular scrutiny because of rising costs. Work on the 140-mile London to Birmingham line, originally <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-much-hs2-cost-money-spent-uk-2023-wvz9hdnz3">estimated at £16 billion</a>, is now <a href="https://www.hs2.org.uk/what-is-hs2/hs2-funding/#:%7E:text=The%20overall%20budget%20for%20Phase,One%20is%202029%20to%202033.">budgeted at £44.6 billion</a>. </p>
<p>At £300 million per mile, this is considerably higher than typical costs for constructing high-speed rail in Europe, according to <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-much-hs2-cost-money-spent-uk-2023-wvz9hdnz3">analysis by The Times</a>. The cheapest recent project, Spain’s Madrid to Galicia line, cost £19 million a mile and the highest, Stuttgart to Munich in Germany, came in at less than a quarter of HS2 at £70 million a mile. </p>
<p>Trains operating well in excess of 300kmh (186mph) are running <a href="https://www.railway-technology.com/features/the-10-fastest-high-speed-trains-in-the-world/?cf-view">across the world</a> – and <a href="https://etrr.springeropen.com/articles/10.1007/s12544-017-0233-0">research shows</a> that being able to transport people and goods by high-speed train confers advantages to local economies. Stronger transport links encourage the development of local business ecosystems that suppliers of specialised goods and services, as well as labour, can reach more easily.</p>
<p>The Department for Transport (DfT) argued the case for disadvantaged communities being close to trains with a maximum speed of 250mph in <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/480649/annex-hs2-and-the-market-for-business-travel.pdf">a 2015 report</a>. It outlined the case for attracting knowledge-based firms to these areas, because they had created jobs at three times the rate of other sectors since 1984. In a report produced the same year, the Economic Affairs Committee spoke of using rail connections to integrate UK cities that each “<a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeconaf/134/13410.htm">possess their own specialism</a>”, arguing this would increase productivity.</p>
<p>But even with these acknowledgements of the potential competitive advantage, Britain’s progress in developing a high-speed network has so far been <a href="https://www.eupoliticalreport.eu/high-speed-rail-goes-slow/">limited to the HS1 link</a> between St Pancras and the Channel Tunnel. Southeastern Rail operates HS1, which was opened in two sections in 2003 and 2007. It has <a href="https://highspeed1.co.uk/about-us">a maximum speed</a> of just over 185mph (for international services) and cost £6.84 billion to build (£51 million per mile). It was completed on time and under budget. </p>
<p>HS1 is estimated to delivers an annual economic benefit of <a href="https://highspeed1.co.uk/media/vemkxmot/delivering-for-britain-and-beyond-the-economic-impact-of-hs1-march-2020.pdf">£427 million</a>. Among many factors, this is based on the cumulative effect of reduced journey times, as well as productivity gains from “agglomeration”, which is when many businesses are attracted to one area – think Silicon Valley. They benefit from cost savings by being close to each other and attracting an ecosystem of useful services and workers. </p>
<p><strong>The vision for HS2</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551025/original/file-20230928-15-ri4jgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A map showing the HS2 train routes and additional connections to Scotland." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551025/original/file-20230928-15-ri4jgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551025/original/file-20230928-15-ri4jgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551025/original/file-20230928-15-ri4jgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551025/original/file-20230928-15-ri4jgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=594&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551025/original/file-20230928-15-ri4jgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=746&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551025/original/file-20230928-15-ri4jgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=746&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551025/original/file-20230928-15-ri4jgc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=746&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">What could have been: a HS2 service destination map from June 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/resources/hs2-vl-41185-hs2-print-service-map-post-irp-220607">HS2.org.uk</a></span>
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<p>After the relative success of HS1, Labour’s transport secretary Lord Adonis <a href="https://www.newcivilengineer.com/archive/adonis-to-announce-high-speed-rail-plans-today-11-03-2010/">announced a new plan</a> to build a high-speed rail link between London Euston and Birmingham’s Curzon Street on March 11 2010. He said high-speed lines would be built northwards to Manchester, Leeds, the East Midlands and Newcastle, with connectivity to the existing lines enabling through services to Scotland. These lines, <a href="https://railnews.mobi/news/2009/09/29-hs2-will-be-the-union.html">Adonis suggested</a>, would unite England and Scotland, north and south, and lead to greater “sharing wealth and opportunity, pioneering a fundamentally better Britain”. </p>
<p>With an estimated cost of <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explainer/high-speed-2-costs#:%7E:text=HS2%20would%20cost-,%C2%A337.5bn,-in%202009%20prices">£37.5 billion</a> in 2013 (at 2009 prices), HS2 represented considerable public investment to achieve what’s now commonly referred to as “levelling up”. However, even at the outset of this project, the theory that high-speed trains significantly reducing journey times would result in the sort of economic and social benefit claimed by Adonis were questioned. In 2013, former business secretary Lord Mandelson warned it might prove to be an “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5be0c442-e31d-11e2-bd87-00144feabdc0">expensive mistake</a>”.</p>
<p>Labour lost the general election in May 2010 and was replaced by a Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition that was committed to cutting public expenditure. Government support for HS2 to achieve wealth creation outside the capital continued, however. The David Cameron-led government supposedly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/25/rishi-sunak-hs2-politics-britain0">saw HS2 as a “counterbalance”</a> to extreme “local austerity”. A parliamentary <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2013/31/notes/division/2">bill was passed</a> in 2013 to start construction.</p>
<h2>Unachievable</h2>
<p>But any economic benefits of HS2 that were justified at the outset have diminished over the last 10 years, to the point that they are now <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/11/12/hs2-will-cost-taxpayers-economic-benefits-will-deliver-government/">considered negligible</a>. According to leaked analysis carried out by the DfT last year, increasing costs means HS2 will “deliver just 90 pence in economic benefit for every £1 it costs”.</p>
<p>Critics of HS2 now consider it to be abnormally expensive and the government’s authority on major projects, the Infrastructure and Projects Authority, says the first two phases of HS2 (London to Birmingham and Birmingham to Crewe) are “<a href="https://www.railway-technology.com/news/hs2-unachievable-rating-government-authority/">unachievable</a>” due to potentially “unresolvable” issues with the schedule, budget and delivery of benefits, among other problems.</p>
<p>Investment in infrastructure is urgently required in urban areas in the north of England to ensure it benefits from east-west connectivity through <a href="https://www.centreforcities.org/levelling-up/">reliable and efficient train services</a>. But these links could be built faster and cheaper than HS2.</p>
<p>And had the money budgeted for this eye-wateringly expensive project been spent on regeneration, housing and stimulating opportunity for investment in innovation and job creation over the last decade, genuine levelling up in the north of England might already be well under way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214506/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steven McCabe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With all delays on this train line over the last decade, it may have been a costly distraction from other projects that could have contributed to levelling up in the meantime.Steven McCabe, Associate Professor and political economist, Birmingham City UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2087222023-07-11T22:22:58Z2023-07-11T22:22:58ZBetter collaboration between public and private sectors could improve urban public transportation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536683/original/file-20230710-15681-6tl5ls.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C0%2C8614%2C5742&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An Ottawa Light Rail Transit train travels along the tracks in Ottawa in June 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s no secret that <a href="https://storeys.com/toronto-transit-bad-to-worse-congestion/">Toronto is falling behind</a> on sustainable transportation <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/toronto-is-6th-worst-city-for-commuting-study-finds-1.3983117">compared to other cities around the world</a>, hurting the city’s economy, quality of life and <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2023/01/12/toronto-ranks-one-of-the-worst-worldwide-for-traffic-congestion-report-finds.html">reputation</a>. </p>
<p>Cities like Toronto are struggling with <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220209/dq220209b-eng.htm">growing populations</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-10-94">public health problems</a> including mental illness and drug addiction, <a href="https://policyalternatives.ca/publications/monitor/monitor-marchapril-2023">inequality</a>, a <a href="https://www.toronto.ca/news/city-council-declares-climate-emergency-and-commits-to-accelerating-action-to-address-climate-change/">climate emergency</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2020-0075">biodiversity loss</a>, <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/traffic-air-pollution-toronto/">pollution</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-state-of-repair-1.6612766">decaying infrastructure</a>. </p>
<p>We need to rethink cities and urban change by embracing talent, innovation and collaboration, as suggested by the <a href="https://www.undp.org/sustainable-development-goals">United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 17</a> and <a href="https://www.c40.org/news/how-youth-activists-cities-can-work-together-climate/">C40 cities</a> priorities. </p>
<p>Since <a href="https://www.tvo.org/article/toronto-is-in-crisis-what-can-we-do-about-that-right-now-today">the status quo isn’t working</a>, how can we adopt better urban designs? The answer lies in more effective public-private partnerships (PPPs).</p>
<h2>Better public-private collaborations</h2>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118682">My recent research on sustainable transportation PPPs</a> shows they don’t work well for the private sector — despite public perceptions that private companies receive lucrative contracts.</p>
<p>A recent example is Toronto’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/eglinton-crosstown-delays-verster-metrolinx-1.6824272">Eglinton crosstown light rail transit project</a>. It has not only caused <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2022/09/26/get-your-act-together-anger-over-latest-delay-of-eglinton-lrt-sparks-calls-for-public-inquiry.html">construction and traffic delays</a>, but has also <a href="https://storeys.com/eglinton-crosstown-lrt-delay-crossli/">eroded the city’s relationship with its private partner</a>.</p>
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<img alt="An electric out of service sign posted outside an electric rail stop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536678/original/file-20230710-14032-3bc1o2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536678/original/file-20230710-14032-3bc1o2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536678/original/file-20230710-14032-3bc1o2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536678/original/file-20230710-14032-3bc1o2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536678/original/file-20230710-14032-3bc1o2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536678/original/file-20230710-14032-3bc1o2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536678/original/file-20230710-14032-3bc1o2.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Out of Service’ signs are shown on the Eglinton Crosstown LRT in Toronto on May 5, 2023. The Eglinton Crosstown LRT has been under construction for 12 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>PPP management needs re-examining through <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0007650314568537">cross-sector collaboration</a>. Proven PPP management expertise is valuable as an export because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1061/9780784483978.009">other cities and countries</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2007.00736.x">haven’t figured them out either</a>.</p>
<p>Toronto’s <a href="https://www.vice.com/en/article/xgq4b7/people-who-left-toronto-on-how-their-lives-got-better">housing and transit problems</a>, coupled with unacceptable levels of inequality, are clear, but these problems are not widely understood as part of an urban design problem that needs input from local talent. </p>
<p>To tackle these challenges, cross-sector collaboration is needed. Improving PPP processes will ensure all partners are on the same page and motivated to achieve common goals. We need a common vision while building better and faster.</p>
<h2>A better Ontario</h2>
<p>During COVID-19, people voluntarily left Toronto for outlying communities. Many would like to live in a smaller city or town and either work locally, <a href="https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/80-per-cent-of-canadians-would-seek-new-job-if-forced-back-to-office-survey-finds-1.6104878">remotely</a>, or have fast transportation to a Toronto office.</p>
<p>Helping commuters access a <a href="https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2022/04/small-towns-luring-people-out-big-cities/">higher quality of life in smaller cities</a> makes a lot of sense for Toronto and its surrounding communities. Smaller towns would <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9429786/canada-immigration-smaller-cities/">benefit from local growth and increased tourism</a>.</p>
<p>These recent developments support a distributed model of interlinked cities connected by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2011.02492.x">electric high-speed rail</a>. Toronto is a centre surrounded by <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220209/dq220209b-eng.htm">increasing suburban sprawl</a> exacerbated by <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2022/11/09/greenbelt02.html">provincial plans</a> to pave over <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/greenbelt-oak-ridges-moraine-regulations-1.6692337">critical green space in the Greenbelt</a> for more <a href="https://environmentaldefence.ca/stop-the-413-3/">highways</a> and <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ontario-greenbelt-plan-ford-housing/">single-family houses</a>. </p>
<p>Instead, why not develop other cities by connecting them to Toronto and to each other?</p>
<p>Toronto would not need to continue its sprawl if people could commute quickly from other, more affordable communities. Ontarians could commute and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2019.103212">visit one another easily</a>. Commuting, tourism and improved collaboration across regions are important, but neglected, social goals.</p>
<p>All levels of government need to be involved in making this solution a reality. A beautiful place like <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/01/22/can-wasaga-beach-find-its-way-out-of-the-shade.html">Wasaga Beach</a> could become a thriving town through electric high-speed rail connections. This model of connected, distributed city centres would <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2021.100645">improve Ontario for all of us</a>. </p>
<h2>Is high-speed rail a reality?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://tc.canada.ca/en/corporate-services/policies/updated-feasibility-study-high-speed-rail-service-quebec-city-windsor-corridor">Québec-Windsor corridor</a>, which stretches between Québec City and Windsor, has the population density to support high-speed rail. An electric “High Frequency Rail” for this region <a href="https://urbantoronto.ca/news/2023/04/toronto-quebec-city-high-frequency-rail-soon-be-reality.51982">could be back on the agenda</a>.</p>
<p>Density and connectivity is a “<a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/increase-go-service-build-communities-business-growth-1.5248840">chicken-and-egg</a>” game when it comes to transportation. Transit access points attract more activity and density because they are connected to other places. </p>
<p>But density is also attracted to existing density where services already exist — for Toronto, this means more sprawl. We have to increase density in smaller towns with well-connected, safe, sustainable, high-speed transportation.</p>
<p>If we build high-speed electric rail across Ontario in <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.894697">environmentally sensitive ways</a>, other cities could grow as well. We could also electrify and expand <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/ontario-go-transit-electrification/">GO Train service</a> and infrastructure.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A train driving past a crossing sign on train tracks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536682/original/file-20230710-11220-5bfxo3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536682/original/file-20230710-11220-5bfxo3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536682/original/file-20230710-11220-5bfxo3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536682/original/file-20230710-11220-5bfxo3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536682/original/file-20230710-11220-5bfxo3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536682/original/file-20230710-11220-5bfxo3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536682/original/file-20230710-11220-5bfxo3.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=479&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Via Rail passenger train makes its way along the tracks in Ottawa in July 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9493056/political-push-continues-high-speed-rail-service-canada/">political will</a> is necessary for this vision to become a reality. <a href="https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/oil-gas/taxpayers-20-billion-loss-trans-mountain-pipeline">Billions of tax dollars are currently wasted</a> on projects completely unaligned with international climate commitments, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/paris-climate-change-trans-mountain-1.4683465">like the Trans Mountain pipeline</a>.</p>
<p>Government priorities need to be redirected to build <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10511482.1998.9521284">personal connections</a>, rather than resource connections, across the country. For example, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-via-rails-holiday-meltdown-shows-canadas-railway-policy-has-utterly/">Via Rail</a> has to use the same rails that freight trains use. Since the priority is freight, not moving people, this slows down Via Rail service. </p>
<h2>Canada is playing catch-up</h2>
<p>There are <a href="https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-high-speed-rail-development-worldwide">a number of other countries around the world</a> that have invested, or are investing, in high-speed rail. Canada is currently the <a href="https://montrealgazette.com/opinion/columnists/nawaz-high-speed-rail-would-put-montreal-on-the-right-track">only G7 country</a> to not have high-speed rail. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A train speeds by a man dressed in a police uniform" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536681/original/file-20230710-29-x5e7ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536681/original/file-20230710-29-x5e7ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536681/original/file-20230710-29-x5e7ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536681/original/file-20230710-29-x5e7ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536681/original/file-20230710-29-x5e7ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536681/original/file-20230710-29-x5e7ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536681/original/file-20230710-29-x5e7ne.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A policeman watches while a CRH high-speed train leaves the Beijing West Railway Station in Beijing, China in December 2012.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alexander F. Yuan)</span></span>
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<p>China <a href="https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/china-high-speed-rail-cmd/index.html">has the longest network of high-speed railways</a>, with trains reaching normal operating speeds of 350 kilometres per hour. </p>
<p>Europe has distributed density by connecting cities with dependable high-speed rail. Japan is another established economic powerhouse leading in high-speed electric rail. </p>
<p>Morocco has high-speed rail between Casablanca and Tangier at 320 km/hr and plans to connect 43 cities with rail. Africa plans to complete a <a href="https://northeastmaglev.com/2023/04/06/the-status-of-high-speed-rail-africa/">continental high-speed rail system by 2033</a>. Other countries with high-speed rail include Uzbekistan, Thailand, Russia, Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. </p>
<p>Sustainable transportation, such as high-speed rail, would benefit the Toronto region in numerous ways. Ontario has a unique opportunity to <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su15118682">develop more effective PPP processes</a> to accelerate the implementation of high-speed rail.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208722/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Deborah de Lange receives funding from SSHRC and ESRC. </span></em></p>Ontario has a unique opportunity to develop more effective public-private partnerships to accelerate the implementation of high-speed rail.Deborah de Lange, Associate Professor, Global Management Studies, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1720402021-11-22T12:08:56Z2021-11-22T12:08:56ZLumo: why the latest Edinburgh-London train service could wean us off planes and roads<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432651/original/file-20211118-24-h67lig.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C0%2C1709%2C1270&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c1/Lumo_803003_at_Edinburgh_Waverley.jpg/1440px-Lumo_803003_at_Edinburgh_Waverley.jpg">Mr Boyt/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It arrived in a <a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/new-lumo-train-service-linking-london-and-edinburgh-launches-3427713">blaze of publicity</a> with its bright blue livery and <a href="https://www.lumo.co.uk/tickets/prices">£20 one-way tickets</a> from Edinburgh to London – a fraction of the usual price. New player <a href="https://www.lumo.co.uk/">Lumo</a>, a subsidiary of Scottish transport operator <a href="https://www.firstgroupplc.com/">FirstGroup</a>, is putting up two trains daily between the two capitals. The journey, with restricted calling points that have left <a href="https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/lumo-why-wont-the-new-train-service-stop-at-yorkshire-stations-3376704">Yorkshire upset</a>, aims to expand to five services daily in each direction in 2022. </p>
<p>One of the largely unfulfilled promises when state-controlled British Railways was replaced by private operators in the 1990s was that ultra-cheap services would appear in <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=4xkAIW_4ydAC&pg=PT259&lpg=PT259&dq=roger+freeman+bosses+trains&source=bl&ots=uSn9VxngpS&sig=ACfU3U3r2MRu-AV1qlJnL3fy_5nqJnnTLw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjDgbbBkZD0AhWSTcAKHX7FBLMQ6AF6BAgPEAM#v=onepage&q=roger%2520freeman%2520bosses%2520trains&f=false">specific markets</a> between certain destinations. But up until now, this largely hasn’t happened, so any addition should be celebrated.</p>
<p>Having said that, nothing about Lumo is really new – not even the somewhat limited supply of cheap £20 tickets. Similar <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/oct/26/east-coast-mainline-why-privatise">cheap deals</a> could be found while the London to Edinburgh service was publicly operated by the Department for Transport between 2009 and 2015. Like Lumo, a limited number of cheap tickets could be obtained via advanced purchasing. </p>
<p>These deals are, in commercial terms, unquestionably “loss-leaders” – their purpose is to generate new travel habits at a temporary loss-making price, and to create positive publicity at a time of flux in travel patterns generally.</p>
<p>Private operators who have run the east coast mainline from Edinburgh to London in the past have encountered <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rivals-eye-gners-east-coast-line-7xm3z0cv9qj">financial difficulties</a> even with generally more expensive fares, so Lumo’s ultra-cheap deals are <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/lumo-tickets-prices-trains-london-to-edinburgh-booking-seats-1261487">unlikely to be sustainable</a> without systemic change. Yet systemic – even revolutionary – changes in the way we pay for travel do appear to be emerging.</p>
<h2>Challenging domestic flights</h2>
<p>The current fares system is notoriously <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4083848/Finding-cheaper-rail-fare-unfortunately-looks-like-Commuter-develops-complex-equation-shows-HALVE-cost-train-ticket.html">complex and expensive</a>. One of the purposes of the government’s latest railway reorganisation into an overarching body known as <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/great-british-railways-for-the-passenger">Great British Railways</a> is to simplify the system and make it cheaper.</p>
<p>Sir Peter Hendy, the <a href="https://www.networkrail.co.uk/who-we-are/how-we-work/our-leadership/our-board/">chairman of Network Rail</a> – the Department of Transport’s public body that oversees the UK railways – has a bold vision inherited from successfully running Transport for London: ticketless travel, where passengers have the confidence to simply swipe their credit cards and board the train.</p>
<p>It is certainly bold, but promoting public confidence in going ticketless arguably needs a Lumo-sized leap in ticket pricing. Lumo’s success may therefore play a minor, but important, part in making such changes more widely plausible.</p>
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<p>Irrespective of these far-sighted plans, Lumo is also taking advantage of the <a href="https://www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-news/98788/almost-half-of-people-to-change-commuting-habits-finds-uk-survey/">general disruption</a> to patterns of movement caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Its loss-leader service could well poach air travellers and generate new passenger journeys that would otherwise not have been undertaken. </p>
<p>It has long been known that flights of 400 miles or less are vulnerable to train services that can average 100mph+ <a href="https://www.globalrailwayreview.com/article/96299/libor-lochman-ulrich-fikar-plane-vs-train/">on the same journey</a>. Creeping <a href="https://www.tsa.gov/timeline">security enhancements</a> at airports has only made this more true, as have <a href="https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200218-climate-change-how-to-cut-your-carbon-emissions-when-flying">environmental concerns</a>, and the prospect of cheaper train tickets serves to underscore these issues more than ever.</p>
<h2>Reliability not speed</h2>
<p>If Lumo turns out to be a long-term success, it also raises awkward questions in Britain about the future of high-speed rail. Much of its romantic, political and technological appeal has rested on the drama of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2021/07/22/crazy-fast-new-maglev-train-is-now-ready-to-fly-in-china/?sh=6bc8587b2bd6">sheer speed</a>.</p>
<p>But if the average Lumo train – timed at an <a href="https://www.lumo.co.uk/plan-your-journey/our-timetable?gclid=cjwkcaiam7ombhaqeiwarvgi3o7ncdxxhk-qcfzv3bypo--bin7bw4djgl-d0cspheilssjr-vexvbocnrsqavd_bwe&gclsrc=aw.ds">average of 87mph</a> on the London to Edinburgh route – can out-compete airlines on Britain’s longest major routes, then the purpose of an extension to Britain’s high-speed rail network seems dubious. Why would Britain need yet more railways engineered to a 225mph standard if the current 125mph grading does the job? Disappointing though the loss of the HS2 extension to Leeds may be, the deprivation may be more a loss of prestige than practical detriment.</p>
<p>Luckily, high speed is not the only, or even the main issue in contention here. With a <a href="https://uic.org/com/IMG/pdf/peter_hendy_biography.pdf">long and successful career</a> in the comparatively slow-moving world of buses, Network Rail’s chairman knows that the key to public transport usage is a deep-seated public confidence in the service – built on regularity, reliability and simplicity. Speed is in fact a secondary issue, especially on a relatively small island.</p>
<p>Regular frequent ticketless services at Lumo-style prices, which are <a href="https://www.ns.nl/producten/en/onbeperkt-reizen/p/holland-travel-ticket">already in use in Holland</a>, would not just render the domestic airline industry redundant but perhaps even begin to make good on Richard Branson’s 1997 promise to begin to “<a href="https://www.businesstraveller.com/news/2012/08/15/virgin-trains-loses-west-coast-franchise/">empty the M6</a>”.</p>
<p>It’s an exciting prospect for the future of public transport that requires reliability, simplicity and capacity rather than velocity. The new Lumo service amply illustrates these prospects.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/172040/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Fowler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The new service’s ultra cheap deals are a step towards what the public was promised when UK trains were privatised in the 1990s.James Fowler, Lecturer, Essex Business School, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1395632020-07-16T20:01:46Z2020-07-16T20:01:46ZDon’t abandon plans for high-speed rail in Australia – just look at all the benefits<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/347045/original/file-20200713-38-ykqvc3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=179%2C291%2C2085%2C1250&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Thomas Nord/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Grattan Institute’s call to “<a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/fast-train-fever/" title="Fast train fever: Why renovated rail might work but bullet trains won’t">abandon</a>” plans for any high-speed rail network in Australia fails to look at the wider benefits such a project can bring by way of more productive economies and more sustainable towns and cities.</p>
<p>The study authors argue the development of any bullet train network linking Brisbane to Melbourne via Sydney and Canberra is “unsuitable for Australia”.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/look-beyond-a-silver-bullet-train-for-stimulus-136834">Look beyond a silver bullet train for stimulus</a>
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<p>But what their argument neglects is that a project like high-speed rail has a unique capacity to reshape cities and population settlement patterns in positive ways.</p>
<h2>A question of cost</h2>
<p>The institute’s study says the idea of high-speed rail is an unwanted distraction in policy-making for the nation’s transport future. Its case relies on a review of the high-speed rail experience in Europe, Japan and China.</p>
<p>All of these nations, it says, have vastly different distributions of towns and major cities to that in Australia, which has extremely long distances between a few large cities.</p>
<p>The study also critiques a 2013 Commonwealth <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/index.aspx">analysis</a> that found a A$130 billion high-speed rail project linking Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne would generate a benefit-cost ratio of 2.3 to 1.
So every A$1 invested in a high-speed rail network would generate A$2.30 in benefits such as travel time savings, avoided vehicle operating costs and reduced road congestion. </p>
<p>But the Grattan study authors say that figure is based on a “cherry-picked” discount rate of 4%. This is economics jargon for the minimum return that the community would expect from the investment of its collective resources in any project. </p>
<p>The Grattan study also says the 2013 cost-benefit analysis did not allow for cost over-runs. Nor did it consider the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the enormous quantities of concrete and steel needed to build the infrastructure.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/high-speed-rail-on-australias-east-coast-would-increase-emissions-for-up-to-36-years-138655">High-speed rail on Australia's east coast would increase emissions for up to 36 years</a>
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<p>So why are some people, including <a href="https://infrastructuremagazine.com.au/2019/05/13/labor-commits-to-high-speed-rail-from-melbourne-to-brisbane/">the federal Labor Party</a>, still so enamoured with the idea of high-speed rail when others would have it binned?</p>
<h2>Some projects reshape cities</h2>
<p>Not all transport infrastructure projects are equal when it comes to cost-benefit analysis. Some investments have a transformative effect on population settlement patterns – they shape cities and regions.</p>
<p>The Sydney Harbour Bridge and the Melbourne Underground Rail Loop are classic examples of city-shaping projects. Each altered travel times between different parts of the metropolis, which then shifted the location preferences of households and businesses. This led to a substantially different city structure compared to what might otherwise have developed.</p>
<p>Other projects, the vast majority of government transport outlays, merely follow or service the pattern of settlement established by the city-shaping investments. These “follower” projects include the local arterial roads and tramways that circulate people and goods within cities. </p>
<p>The Commonwealth’s official <a href="https://www.atap.gov.au/framework/integrated-transport-land-use-planning/6-Strategic-or-city-shaping-infrastructure">guidelines for major project evaluation</a> recognise this distinction.</p>
<p>New ways of living, learning, working and playing become possible with city-shaping projects. By comparison, the procession of follower projects simply perpetuates settlement patterns and economic structures.</p>
<p>This is the claim and appeal of high-speed rail. Advocates <a href="https://www.sydney.edu.au/business/news-and-events/news/2019/10/03/fast-rail-answer-to-urban-sprawl.html">argue</a> such an investment would divert a significant proportion of urban growth from the far-flung suburbs of metropolitan areas to new regional locations. That’s because these regions will then have similar travel times into core city labour markets.</p>
<p>In these regional locations, households would enjoy greater housing choice and affordability, more walkability and better access to open space. They could even have better access to a range of community facilities than their metro suburban counterparts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-halve-train-travel-times-between-our-cities-by-moving-to-faster-rail-116512">We can halve train travel times between our cities by moving to faster rail</a>
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<p>Advocates also <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/67664/1/dp1435.pdf">argue</a> businesses in the big cities and intervening regional areas will be able to connect with each other at lower cost and source the skills they need more efficiently. This would boost productivity.</p>
<h2>Consider all the benefits</h2>
<p>The 2013 analysis took into account issues such as congestion, emissions (from travel) and transport accidents. But it did not attempt to quantify and monetise the effects of high-speed rail shaping cities and regions. </p>
<p>Arguably, the most important set of benefits from this investment were left out of the economic evaluation, simply because they are difficult to measure. </p>
<p>Modelling how the supply chains of businesses might change under the influence of city-shaping projects, or how the housing preferences of people might shift, is undoubtedly challenging. But being difficult to measure makes these impacts no less real.</p>
<p>Despite this limitation on the scope of benefits, the <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/files/HSR_Phase_2_Keyfindings_ES_Booklet.pdf">2013 study said</a> the high-speed rail project would return a benefit-cost ratio of 1.1 at a 7% discount rate, which the Grattan study says is the usual test applied to transport projects.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/smart-money-a-better-way-for-australia-to-select-big-transport-infrastructure-projects-92265">Smart money: a better way for Australia to select big transport infrastructure projects</a>
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<p>Grattan says the project barely scrapes in at this higher discount rate and implies many other projects would offer ratios greater than 1:1 and should be preferred. These would typically be smaller, follower projects that address local congestion problems.</p>
<p>But a project achieving a 1.1 benefit-cost ratio means Australia would still be better off undertaking the project compared to a business-as-usual case.</p>
<p>If the transformative effects of high-speed rail include more compact and walkable cities with less car dependency and greater productivity, then such a network has good reason to keep its grip on the Australian imagination.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/139563/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marcus Luigi Spiller is a principal and partner at SGS Economics & Planning Pty Ltd.</span></em></p>A high-speed rail network in Australia would create many benefits by reshaping cities and regional communities along its route.Marcus Luigi Spiller, Associate Professor of Urban Planning (honorary), The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1386552020-05-24T20:05:19Z2020-05-24T20:05:19ZHigh-speed rail on Australia’s east coast would increase emissions for up to 36 years<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336667/original/file-20200521-102662-ixbxx9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2897%2C1994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Piqsels</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Bullet trains are back on the political agenda. As the major parties look for ways to stimulate the economy after the COVID-19 crisis, <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/anthony-albanese-speech-australia-beyond-the-coronavirus-canberra-monday-11-may-2020">Labor is again spruiking its vision</a> of linking Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra and Brisbane with high-speed trains similar to the Eurostar, France’s TGV or Japan’s Shinkansen.</p>
<p>In 2013 when Labor was last in government, it released a <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/">detailed feasibility study</a> of its plan. But a Grattan Institute report <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/fast-train-fever/">released today</a> shows bullet trains are not a good idea for Australia. Among other shortcomings, we found an east coast bullet train would not be the climate saver many think it would be.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336669/original/file-20200521-102651-eehpe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/336669/original/file-20200521-102651-eehpe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336669/original/file-20200521-102651-eehpe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336669/original/file-20200521-102651-eehpe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336669/original/file-20200521-102651-eehpe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336669/original/file-20200521-102651-eehpe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/336669/original/file-20200521-102651-eehpe6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Anthony Albanese releasing a high-speed rail study in 2013. The idea has long been mooted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span>
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<h2>The logic seems simple enough</h2>
<p>Building a bullet train to put a dent in our greenhouse gas emissions <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/mar/11/why-are-we-still-waiting-for-high-speed-rail-between-sydney-melbourne-and-brisbane">has been long touted</a>. The logic seems simple – we can take a lot of planes and their carbon pollution out of the sky if we give people another way to get between our largest cities in just a few hours or less.</p>
<p>And this is all quite true, as the chart below shows. We estimate a bullet train’s emissions per passenger-kilometre on a trip from Melbourne to Sydney would be about one-third of those of a plane. We calculated this using average fuel consumption estimates from 2018 for various types of transport, as well as the average emissions intensity of electricity generated in Australia in 2018. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-is-a-sliding-doors-moment-what-we-do-now-could-change-earths-trajectory-137838">Coronavirus is a 'sliding doors' moment. What we do now could change Earth's trajectory</a>
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<p>If we use the projected emissions intensity of electricity in 2035 – the first year trains were expected to run under Labor’s original plan – the fraction drops to less than one-fifth of a plane’s emissions in 2018. </p>
<p>It should be remembered that while coaches might be the most climate-friendly way to travel long distances, they can’t compete with bullet trains or planes for speed.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335963/original/file-20200519-83371-6zdve1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335963/original/file-20200519-83371-6zdve1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335963/original/file-20200519-83371-6zdve1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335963/original/file-20200519-83371-6zdve1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335963/original/file-20200519-83371-6zdve1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335963/original/file-20200519-83371-6zdve1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335963/original/file-20200519-83371-6zdve1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Notes: Average occupancy estimates are 38.5 (coach), 320 (bullet train), 119 (conventional rail), 2.26 (car), and 151.96 (plane). Plane emissions include radiative forcing. For more detail, see 'Fast train fever: Why renovated rail might work but bullet trains won’t'.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>There’s a catch</h2>
<p>So, where’s the problem? It lies in construction. A bullet train along Australia’s east coast would take about 15 years of planning, then would be built in sections over about 30 years. This construction would generate huge emissions. </p>
<p>In particular, vast emissions would be released in the production of steel and concrete required to build a train line from Melbourne to Brisbane. These so-called “scope 3” emissions can account for 50-80% of total construction emissions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/look-beyond-a-silver-bullet-train-for-stimulus-136834">Look beyond a silver bullet train for stimulus</a>
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<p>Scope 3 emissions are sometimes not counted when assessing the emissions impact of a project, but they should be. There’s no guarantee the quantities of concrete and steel in question would have been produced and used elsewhere if not for the bullet train.</p>
<p>And the long construction time means it would be many years before the train actually starts to take planes out of the sky. This, combined with construction emissions, means a bullet train would be very slow to reduce emissions. In fact, we found it would first increase emissions for many years.</p>
<h2>Slow emissions benefit</h2>
<p>As the chart below shows, we estimate building the bullet train could lead to emissions being higher than they otherwise would’ve been for between 24 and 36 years. </p>
<p>This period would start at year 15 of the project, when planning ends and construction starts. At the earliest, it would end at year 39. This is the point at which some sections of the project would be complete, and at which enough trips have been taken (and enough plane or car trips foregone) that avoided emissions overtake emissions created.</p>
<p>This means the train might not actually create a net reduction in emissions until almost 40 years after the government commits to building it – and even this is under a generously low estimate of scope 3 emissions. If scope 3 emissions are on the high side, emission reductions may not start until just after the 50-year mark – 36 years after construction began.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335965/original/file-20200519-83384-yxdxb0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/335965/original/file-20200519-83384-yxdxb0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335965/original/file-20200519-83384-yxdxb0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335965/original/file-20200519-83384-yxdxb0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335965/original/file-20200519-83384-yxdxb0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335965/original/file-20200519-83384-yxdxb0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/335965/original/file-20200519-83384-yxdxb0.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Notes: Estimates derived from the 2013 feasibility study of the Melbourne-to-Brisbane bullet train, and other sources. The feasibility study assumed that government would commit to the project in 2013. For more detail, see 'Fast train fever: Why renovated rail might work but bullet trains won’t'.</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The bullet train would create a net reduction in emissions from the 40- or 50-year mark onwards. But the initial timelines matter. </p>
<p>The world needs to achieve net zero emissions by about 2050 if we’re to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. All Australian states and territories have made this their goal. Unfortunately, a bullet train will not help us achieve it.</p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>Hitting the 2050 net-zero emissions target implicit in the Paris Agreement remains a daunting but achievable task. Decarbonising transport will play a big part, including the particularly tricky question of reducing aviation emissions. </p>
<p>But during the most crucial time for action on emissions reduction, a bullet train will not help. Our efforts and focus ought to be directed elsewhere.</p>
<p><em>Milan Marcus assisted in the preparation of this piece.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/delays-at-canberra-why-australia-should-have-built-fast-rail-decades-ago-57733">Delays at Canberra: why Australia should have built fast rail decades ago</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/138655/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>Bullet trains are back on the agenda. But a new analysis shows that rather than helping cut emissions, such a project would drive them up for at least 24 years.Greg Moran, Senior Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1368342020-04-28T02:09:14Z2020-04-28T02:09:14ZLook beyond a silver bullet train for stimulus<p>Amidst a global pandemic, some people are starting to dream big about infrastructure projects to help get Australia moving again. The decades-old dream of an Australian fast train is <a href="https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-backs-economic-game-changer-high-speed-rail-as-part-of-pandemic-recovery-20200418-p54l24.html">back in the headlines</a>. But, as alluring as it sounds, the federal opposition’s idea for a bullet train from Melbourne to Brisbane is not a good use of a generation’s worth of infrastructure spending.</p>
<p>After the coronavirus crisis, there may be good reasons to fast-track infrastructure to create jobs and stimulate the economy. But it remains as important as ever that funding go only to worthy projects. A bullet train does not fit the bill.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-focus-of-stimulus-plans-has-to-be-construction-that-puts-social-housing-first-136519">Why the focus of stimulus plans has to be construction that puts social housing first</a>
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<h2>No silver bullet</h2>
<p>Federal Labor <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-backs-economic-game-changer-high-speed-rail-as-part-of-pandemic-recovery-20200418-p54l24.html">claims</a> the train would be an “economic game-changer” for the regions in its path. But a <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/files/HSR_Phase_2-Main_Report_Low_Res.pdf">study</a> into the train, commissioned by Labor itself in government in 2010, found no evidence for this.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1251667149594091520"}"></div></p>
<p>Any regional development was too uncertain, the authors concluded, to be considered in their cost-benefit analysis. In fact, they found the project could damage towns along the route:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The history of the impact of transport improvement in Australian towns is that they concentrate activity in the larger centres and create commuter towns lacking in higher level services. Without concerted efforts to the contrary, this is also a likely outcome of the introduction of HSR [high-speed rail].</p>
</blockquote>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/regional-cities-beware-fast-rail-might-lead-to-disadvantaged-dormitories-not-booming-economies-119090">Regional cities beware – fast rail might lead to disadvantaged dormitories, not booming economies</a>
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<p>Of course, as advocates will be quick to point out, the study did conclude total benefits would outweigh costs by a considerable margin: $2.30 in benefit for every $1 of cost. But this rosy calculation was based on a series of assumptions that are either outdated or inappropriate. As our upcoming report on fast rail will explain in more detail, it’s unlikely the train’s benefits would exceed its costs if a rigorous independent assessment were carried out today.</p>
<p>The benefits are also narrowly concentrated. The biggest winners would be business travellers between Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. Wider benefits to society accounted for only 3% of the total, and the effect on economic growth was expected to be minimal.</p>
<p>That’s because the train would take a very long time to build. According to the study, the project would only be “shovel ready” 15 years after funding was committed. This makes it completely ineffective as a timely stimulus during a downturn.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-halve-train-travel-times-between-our-cities-by-moving-to-faster-rail-116512">We can halve train travel times between our cities by moving to faster rail</a>
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<p>Advocates also argue the train would reduce emissions by taking high-emitting planes out of the sky. But a net reduction won’t be achieved for many years – maybe decades – because constructing the line would create so many emissions.</p>
<p>If built, this train would be the most expensive infrastructure project in Australian history. The study estimated the price tag at A$114 billion – A$130 billion in today’s dollars. As our chart shows, this is enough to pay for an entire generation’s worth of infrastructure.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330286/original/file-20200424-126800-jhqvr2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projects are not presented as an alternative to the train but provide a point of reference for the scale of spending required for the high-speed rail project. Projects in yellow have active government funding commitments. Figures indicate total project funding costs, including private contributions. Figure for the fast train is in 2019 dollars.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Source: Based on most recent figures from Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications, Infrastructure Australia, NSW, Victorian and Queensland governments, Brisbane City Council, AECOM, ABS</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330891/original/file-20200427-28119-1gi471o.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330891/original/file-20200427-28119-1gi471o.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330891/original/file-20200427-28119-1gi471o.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330891/original/file-20200427-28119-1gi471o.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330891/original/file-20200427-28119-1gi471o.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330891/original/file-20200427-28119-1gi471o.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=787&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330891/original/file-20200427-28119-1gi471o.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=787&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330891/original/file-20200427-28119-1gi471o.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=787&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<h2>So what should be done?</h2>
<p>It is true current low interest rates would make borrowing to pay for such a large project cheaper than ever before, and fast-tracking infrastructure may be justified to aid economic recovery. But that doesn’t give governments a blank cheque to spend on whatever they like. The crisis does not absolve government of its responsibility to scrutinise projects to decide whether they are worthwhile.</p>
<p>A good place to start is by identifying the problem you want to solve.</p>
<p>If regional development is the goal, other options are available to governments that are more likely to be effective than a bullet train. <a href="https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/IV_30_Year_Strategy_WEB_V2.pdf">Infrastructure Victoria</a> and <a href="https://insw-sis.visualise.today/documents/INSW_2018SIS_BuildingMomentum_Summary.pdf">Infrastructure NSW</a> both identify better digital connectivity as a pressing need for regional and rural areas. The <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nbn-urged-to-intervene-as-pandemic-tests-broadband-connections-20200316-p54ain.html">current strain</a> on the national broadband network as many of us try to work from home is a good reminder of the link between connectivity and productivity.</p>
<p>If governments do want to focus on transport, “smaller picture” projects, though not as glamorous, tend to deliver more bang for buck, as <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/remarkably-adaptive/">previous Grattan work</a> has argued.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-fast-growing-cities-and-their-people-are-proving-to-be-remarkably-adaptable-103992">Our fast-growing cities and their people are proving to be remarkably adaptable</a>
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</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Projects that can be fast-tracked to start construction soon are also more likely to support economic recovery. Infrastructure Australia’s <a href="https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-02/current_priority_list_%20february_2020.pdf">priority list</a> suggests a range of transport projects and initiatives that are much further developed, including improving the Sydney-Canberra rail link. And the priority list includes projects that benefit all states and territories, not just the big three on the east coast.</p>
<p>The coronavirus crisis has upended many of our assumptions about “normal operating procedure” for governments. But it doesn’t mean we throw the old rule book out the window. Governments should only spend public money on projects that have clear and tangible benefits to society – not on grand “nation-building” projects that are big on style but low on substance.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136834/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and Grattan uses the income to pursue its activities.</span></em></p>The federal opposition’s idea for a bullet train from Melbourne to Brisbane is not a good use of a generation’s worth of infrastructure spending. It won’t even work as an economic stimulus.Marion Terrill, Transport and Cities Program Director, Grattan InstituteTom Crowley, Associate, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1309182020-02-12T15:40:07Z2020-02-12T15:40:07ZHS2: true value to cities in the north of England has not been made clear<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315004/original/file-20200212-61917-1roka07.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C3976%2C2694&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/two-modern-high-speed-train-motion-181235576">Shutterstock/Zorabc</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A new high-speed rail route between London and the north of England has finally been given the go-ahead. Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, announced the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-confirms-hs2-will-go-ahead-alongside-revolution-in-local-transport">government’s decision</a>, despite the dramatic escalation in <a href="https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8601#fullreport">construction costs</a> – from £37.5bn in 2011 to £50bn in 2013, £65bn in 2015, and in excess of £100bn in 2019. </p>
<p>HS2’s potential value for money has been calculated with a standard approach for public sector investments, which compares benefits with costs. It is measured with a benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR). As the cost of the project rises, questions have been raised about the value offered by HS2.</p>
<p>There are significant problems with how the government has calculated the value for money offered by HS2. One is that the analysis is open to manipulation. Another is that one of the primary drivers in the strategic case for HS2 is not reflected in the economic case. This driver is national economic rebalancing – the creation of wealth in cities and regions in the Midlands and North.</p>
<p>Instead, the government has assumed that journey time savings are the main benefit to users of a faster rail route. This is supposed to allow us to work more productively or get more enjoyment from our time off. Other lesser benefits have also been added to the calculation. These include improved reliability and reduced overcrowding, as well as some wider economic impacts, such as productivity gains and environmental impacts. </p>
<h2>Flexible calculations</h2>
<p>It was noteworthy that the initial increases in the cost of HS2 did not change the supposed economic benefit as measured by the benefit-to-cost ratio. This held steady at close to 2.0, or £2 of benefit for every £1 of cost. Substantial additional benefits were recognised by the promoters (the publicly owned HS2 Ltd and the Department for Transport) even though nothing fundamental had changed in the business case. </p>
<p>However, the independent review by civil engineer Douglas Oakervee, commissioned by the government and <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/864842/oakervee-review.pdf">just published</a>, puts the BCR at 1.1 to 1.5, reflecting the increase in costs. The National Audit Office’s <a href="https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/High-Speed-Two-A-progress-update.pdf">recent report</a> on HS2 estimated a BCR of 1.4.</p>
<p>The Department for Transport is yet to issue a revised business case for HS2 that takes account of the latest plans and possible cost savings. When it does, I expect to see the usual tweaking and massaging of assumptions about an uncertain future state of the world. This can be defended as a legitimate exercise of professional judgement by transport economists who wish to please their clients: in this case, ministers who have decided to press ahead. The objective will be to achieve a BCR of 2.0, which is the threshold for the Department for Transport’s high value for money category.</p>
<h2>Missing factors</h2>
<p>Apart from such malleability in analysis, there are two big problems with the standard approach to the economic appraisal of proposed transport investments. First, the time-saving benefits arise from trips between cities and say nothing about economic development within cities. </p>
<p>The strategic case for HS2 is to boost the economies of the cities of the Midlands and the North by improving their connectivity to London and the south-east. However, the Department for Transport’s cost-benefit calculation is silent on the geographical distribution of HS2’s benefits across the country. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315005/original/file-20200212-61941-zrt1uo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/315005/original/file-20200212-61941-zrt1uo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315005/original/file-20200212-61941-zrt1uo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315005/original/file-20200212-61941-zrt1uo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315005/original/file-20200212-61941-zrt1uo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315005/original/file-20200212-61941-zrt1uo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/315005/original/file-20200212-61941-zrt1uo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">HS2 will bring economic benefits to northern cities like Sheffield.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/millennium-square-modern-city-sheffield-england-376902853">Shutterstock/SAKhanPhotography</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The economic boost from HS2 might turn out to be quite substantial if the linked cities can take advantage of the modern high-speed connection to London. This could include local investment in property development near to new stations, and in urban rail to enlarge the benefits to surrounding districts. The impact on cities will include the job creation that results.</p>
<p>The second problem is that average travel time, as measured in the National Travel Survey, has <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/823068/national-travel-survey-2018.pdf">hardly changed</a> over the past 45 years. This is despite many billions of pounds of public investments in the transport system justified by the value of journey time savings. What actually happens is that these investments into quicker travel allow us to travel further and to gain access to more distant destinations, opportunities and choices. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hs2-debate-shows-how-evidence-is-ignored-in-favour-of-politics-131326">HS2 debate shows how evidence is ignored in favour of politics</a>
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<p>These are the real benefits experienced by users, not the hypothetical time savings assumed by the economists. Transport projects like HS2 lead to changes across the country as people and businesses take advantage of improved access to land and property capable of better use.</p>
<p>The standard approach to economic appraisal of transport investments is quite narrowly focused and disregards the value created by changed land use and the geographical reach of economic activity. The Department for Transport has failed to value the real benefits of HS2 by not investigating the land use impacts of this transport investment. The economists’ focus on time savings has been quite misconceived.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130918/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Metz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>HS2 will provide an economic boost to cities in the north and midlands of England.David Metz, Honorary Professor of Transport Studies, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1190902019-07-15T19:41:49Z2019-07-15T19:41:49ZRegional cities beware – fast rail might lead to disadvantaged dormitories, not booming economies<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/284022/original/file-20190715-173347-zfc02i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Many commuters already travel from regional cities to work in capital cities like Melbourne so what impacts will fast rail have?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/avlxyz/32874010797/in/photolist-S5XU6B-2dXeMwv-Sz1vqJ-23SPnYD-2cRrGGF-Thznko-ThzniE-2ehf35w-REp7D2-2e2V9hr-REp7Ck-2e2V9fn-ThznfJ-2e2V9g4-Thzneb-2fqPaKi-2e2V9dD-2fqPaKD-2fqPaJB-ThzneS-2fqPaJr-2fqPaHV-2fqPaHe-2fqPaFv-2fm9TJm-2fqPaFk-2fqPaFa-2e2UYsM-2fm9JDh-2fqNXyV-24Pfoox-24Pfope-2fm9JAG-24Pfomt-24Pfonv-24PfokM-24Pfoje-24Pfohv-2fqNXs2-24Pfomi-24Pfoi2-24PfoiH-24PfogP-24Pfogi-2fm9Jxq-24PfoeK-24Pfog8-24PfofB-24Pfod2-24Pfoe4">Alpha/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Governments are looking to fast rail services to regional cities to relieve population pressures in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. The federal government is funding <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/trains/faster_rail/index.aspx">nine business cases</a> for such schemes. But what economic effect might these fast links have on the regional cities?</p>
<p>The current fast rail schemes seem oriented at relieving population pressures in the major cities rather than a productive regional economic purpose. The minister for population, cities and urban infrastructure recently <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/tudge/media-release/better-managing-australias-future-population-growth">stated</a>:</p>
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<p>… the National Faster Rail Agency begins operating from today [July 1]. The new Agency will oversee the government’s 20-year fast rail agenda, which will connect satellite regional cities to our big capitals. This will allow people to reside in regional centres with its [sic] cheaper housing and regional lifestyle but still access easily and daily the major employment centres.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-can-halve-train-travel-times-between-our-cities-by-moving-to-faster-rail-116512">We can halve train travel times between our cities by moving to faster rail</a>
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<p>The argument seems built on a pitch to city workers priced out of metropolitan housing markets. It treats regional towns as remote dormitories for metropolitan workers rather than as regional cities that serve as service hubs and employment centres. But will subsidising metropolitan workers to live in cheaper regional towns have a positive economic effect on those towns? </p>
<h2>An unequal relationship</h2>
<p>Concern is growing among international observers that <a href="https://www.51m.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ch51.pdf">fast rail connections between two cities benefit the larger of the pair</a>. Professor <a href="https://www.centreforcities.org/event/city-horizons-professor-michael-storper/">Michael Storper observed</a>: </p>
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<p>One of the biggest mistakes we’ve made was being naïve about connectivity – give infrastructure and it spreads. Well, often it concentrates. The high-speed train network in France, guess what it did. It advantaged Paris.</p>
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<p>While Paris is seen as benefiting the most from the national fast rail TGV service, the regional cities of <a href="http://www.greengauge21.net/wp-content/uploads/hsr-regneration-of-cities.pdf">Lyon and Lille have strengthened their economic positions</a>. The Lyon and Lille fast rail stations form the hub of their respective regional transport networks and have attracted new commercial activity. They also sit at intersections of major European fast rail networks. </p>
<p>It’s a pattern that cannot be easily achieved for Australia’s regional cities due to our widely dispersed settlements. So what does this mean for our regional cities? </p>
<p>Improving transport infrastructure doesn’t just improve regional business access to metropolitan markets. It decrease the costs of trade in both directions. And large cities are typically more productive economically. This is because they offer more specialised goods and services and can leverage the agglomeration effects of shared high-quality labour markets and infrastructure, plus a concentration of skills and knowledge.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/our-big-cities-are-engines-of-inequality-so-how-do-we-fix-that-69775">Our big cities are engines of inequality, so how do we fix that?</a>
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<p>Reduced travel times can mean regional businesses become less efficient than metropolitan competitors that can offer a wider range of specialist goods and services. This may lead to regional business closures, employment losses and wage decline. Unless a regional city is able to develop a specialised set of high-skill, high-wage industries that complement or outcompete the metropolis it risks being economically disadvantaged by faster rail. </p>
<p>New regional demand arising from commuter population growth might counter the loss of higher-order regional jobs due to improved transport links. But that will largely be in lower-value retail and personal service sectors. The result will still be a net economic gain for the metropolis.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-growing-skills-gap-between-jobs-in-australian-cities-and-the-regions-88477">The growing skills gap between jobs in Australian cities and the regions</a>
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<p>An influx of commuters earning metropolitan wages might also <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/melbourne-vic/geelong-prices-soften-as-buyers-await-outcome-of-federal-election/news-story/ea4cc61d089f669d26cf5b10b7ceab80">inflate regional housing markets</a>. This would disadvantage lower-paid regional workers. The beneficiaries of this scenario are likely to be local rentiers, such as landholders and developers who can profit from land-price inflation. </p>
<p>This interest group will likely vocally promote regional fast rail. But sustainable economic prosperity for regional cities requires more than population-driven land speculation. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-housing-affordability-crisis-in-regional-australia-yes-and-heres-why-71808">A housing affordability crisis in regional Australia? Yes, and here's why</a>
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<h2>The example of Geelong</h2>
<p>The most advanced of the current Australian proposals is the <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/tudge/media-release/geelong-melbourne-travel-cut-half-part-20-year-fast-rail-plan">Geelong-Melbourne route</a>. It has received federal and state <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-22/fast-rail-train-service-pledge-for-geelong/10927982">funding for planning</a> with an estimated total cost of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-in-about-face-on-building-geelong-fast-rail-with-morrison-20190531-p51tbz.html">at least A$10 billion</a>. But planners need to ask how this spending will provide a net economic benefit, and how the benefits will be distributed. </p>
<p>Growth in commuter population and the services this attracts may be seem like a resolution to metropolitan population problems, but could further concentrate higher-paid jobs in Melbourne. Faster commutes mean Melbourne-based firms will have a greater pick of Geelong-based workers, thus consolidating metropolitan competitive advantage. Fast rail thus risks placing Geelong at a competitive disadvantage, with jobs and workers being exported to Melbourne. </p>
<p>Meanwhile the pressure of housing another <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/land-use-and-population-research/victoria-in-future">145,000 residents in the next 20 years</a> already falls on Geelong, a <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/203?opendocument">city of 280,000 people</a>. The strain on infrastructure and services is proportionately greater than would be the case in Melbourne, which has <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/2GMEL?opendocument">nearly 5 million</a> residents. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/this-is-how-regional-rail-can-help-ease-our-big-cities-commuter-crush-81902">This is how regional rail can help ease our big cities' commuter crush</a>
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<h2>What can policymakers do about this?</h2>
<p>To resolve this conundrum, thought must be given to what specialised high-value jobs will be attracted to regional cities to accompany fast rail investments, so these cities remain competitive and productive, regionally, nationally and internationally. This might include policies such as relocating public agencies, regional targeting of university-based research and development spending, boosting services such as schools and hospitals, and providing incentives for innovative private companies to relocate to regional towns. </p>
<p>Policymakers should also consider positioning regional cities as rail network hubs in their own right. An example would be connecting Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo by rail, along with better linkages to national and international airports. </p>
<p>We don’t yet know for sure what the effects of fast rail on regional cities will be. But the impact of this infrastructure needs to be assessed very carefully lest it turns Australia’s regional cities into dependent population dormitories rather than regional dynamos, at vast public expense.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119090/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Denham is a PhD candidate at RMIT University, investigating the relationships between regional-metropolitan commuting and regional development.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>RMIT University receives funding from AHURI and the EU H2020 Program to support Jago Dodson's research. </span></em></p>While governments focus on how to ease congestion and make affordable housing more accessible for workers in our biggest cities, fast rail could be a mixed blessing for regional cities.Todd Denham, PhD Candidate, School of Global, Urban & Social Studies, RMIT UniversityJago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1165122019-06-10T20:07:38Z2019-06-10T20:07:38ZWe can halve train travel times between our cities by moving to faster rail<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275827/original/file-20190522-187169-14n7xn6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">VLocity trains run at speeds of up to 160km/h on four Victorian regional lines.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Scott Martin</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Melbourne-Sydney air corridor is now the <a href="https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/Busiest%20Routes/2019/busiest-routes-2019.pdf?hsCtaTracking=ee97d32f-97c9-4625-8a07-481cf63877c5%7C559f8381-6032-446d-9b62-6c16ff1f4bad">second-busiest in the world</a>. That’s true for either the number of passenger planes flying between the two airports or by counting actual passenger numbers, now over 9 million passengers a year. That’s an increase of 28% since 2009.</p>
<p>On an average day, some 12,330 people get on a plane in Sydney to fly to Melbourne. A similar number make the reverse journey. </p>
<p>Most passengers will have taken some time to get the airport and waited well over half an hour at the airport just to get on the plane. Once on board, the cramped conditions in economy once prompted comedian Jean Kittson to observe that even battery hens feel sorry for the passengers.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lets-get-moving-with-the-affordable-medium-speed-alternatives-to-the-old-dream-of-high-speed-rail-95854">Let's get moving with the affordable medium-speed alternatives to the old dream of high-speed rail</a>
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<p>Contrast this with getting on a high-speed rail (HSR) train that can travel at speeds of 250km/h or more from city centre to city centre on selected routes. Starting with Japan in 1964, these trains now <a href="https://uic.org/High-Speed-History#t1981-2009-HSR-services-spreading-in-the-world">operate in 12 countries</a> in Asia, Europe, the UK, and now Morocco.</p>
<p>Australia’s high-speed rail investigations since 1984 have cost an estimated A$125 million in today’s terms. However, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/10/labor-to-promise-1bn-for-east-coast-high-speed-rail-line">not even one kilometre of corridor has been reserved</a>. High-speed rail has <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/Background_Papers/bp9798/98bp16">often been promised</a>, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/springfield-monorail-of-australian-politics-how-a-very-fast-train-is-a-very-preelection-promise-20160411-go35cf.html">often before elections</a> (including a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-22/fast-rail-train-service-pledge-for-geelong/10927982">Melbourne-Geelong service</a> in the latest one) – as <a href="https://www.facebook.com/thechaser/videos/10153523788776230/">The Chaser observed in 2016</a> – only to vanish afterwards.</p>
<h2>How does this compare to other countries?</h2>
<p>Japan’s network has been slowly but surely extended, from the initial Tokyo-Osaka 515km <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinkansen">Shinkansen</a> in 1964 to more than 2,750km of lines on new dedicated track. More lines are under construction. To date, there have been more than 10 billion passenger movements with no loss of life from collision or derailment. </p>
<p>China has had a rapid rollout of trains moving up to 350km/h. Starting in 2008 with Beijing to Tianjin taking 30 minutes to cover 120km, China’s high-speed rail network now extends over 20,000km. This includes <a href="http://www.traveller.com.au/china-rail-best-stops-on-the-highspeed-beijingtoshanghai-train-route-h1bqj4">Beijing-Shanghai</a> (opened in 2011 with a fatal collision that year) and <a href="https://www.travelchinaguide.com/china-trains/beijing-guangzhou/">Beijing-Guangzhou</a> (the longest HSR route in the world). In 2018, the short Guangzhou-Hong Kong section opened. </p>
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<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/UunE0FPZKng?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">China now has the world’s biggest high-speed rail network.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Germany’s high-speed rail is of interest to Australia, with a mixture of new track construction (<em>Neubaustrecken</em>) one section at a time and upgrading of existing track. This progressively improves rail capacity and reduces travel times. </p>
<p>Many other countries have medium-speed rail, with trains moving at speeds of 160-240km/h. In Uzbekistan, for example, <a href="https://www.talgo.com/en/projects/uzbekistan-en/afrosiyob/">Talgo tilt trains</a> take <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/5994795/could-we-please-finally-have-a-fast-first-world-train-service/">about 2 hours</a> to move between Tashkent and Samarkand. This is a distance similar to Sydney to Canberra, which is currently a train journey of over four hours.</p>
<h2>So what’s stopping Australia?</h2>
<p>High-speed rail has been studied repeatedly since 1984 in Australia. The Howard government <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/Background_Papers/bp9798/98bp16">raised expectations before the 1998 election</a> with a Sydney-Canberra Speedrail proposal. John Howard <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=CRT45DlRXCQC&pg=PA107&dq=%E2%80%9Cboosting+the+speedrail+proposal%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj3-NHnzrriAhXd7XMBHWzoBZMQ6AEIKjAA#v=onepage&q=%E2%80%9Cboosting%20the%20speedrail%20proposal%22&f=false">said</a> this “nation-building project” would deliver “ourselves – and our children – a visionary new transport system of which we can all be proud”.</p>
<p>The proposal was to use existing track from Sydney’s Central Station to near Campbelltown, then new track to Canberra airport. The train would take just 84 minutes to complete the trip. The cost was then about A$4.5 billion, with the private sector to finance all but about A$1 billion. </p>
<p>The Howard government <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_Australia#Speedrail_proposal">withdrew support for the project</a> in December 2000. Instead, it commissioned yet another study and shut down high-speed rail for another decade. </p>
<p>The Gillard government commissioned more studies. In 2013 the cost of a new Sydney-Canberra high-speed rail sector was estimated at <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/publications/high-speed-rail-study-reports/index.aspx">A$23 billion with an east coast network to cost A$114 billion</a>.</p>
<p>In its 2017 budget, the Turnbull government moved the focus to medium-speed rail or “<a href="https://www.governmentnews.com.au/rail-20-billion-spending-16000-jobs/">faster rail</a>”. The <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/109494-indigenous-australians-and-fast-trains-new-agency-details/">National Faster Rail Agency</a> will come into being on July 1.</p>
<h2>What are the prospects for faster rail?</h2>
<p>There is a good case for pursuing “faster rail”, given the difficulties of making progress on high-speed rail. Australia could follow the lead of Germany and other countries in building isolated new sections of track to high-speed standards, one at a time. These sections can link with existing mainlines, to allow for new trains to run faster than cars.</p>
<p>This has worked well in Victoria since 2006 with the introduction of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Fast_Rail_project">regional fast rail</a> on four corridors. These <a href="https://www.vline.com.au/Fares-general-info/On-board">trains run at up to 160km/h</a> on upgraded tracks. Further track upgrading is under way in Victoria.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277539/original/file-20190603-69067-xvb031.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277539/original/file-20190603-69067-xvb031.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277539/original/file-20190603-69067-xvb031.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277539/original/file-20190603-69067-xvb031.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277539/original/file-20190603-69067-xvb031.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277539/original/file-20190603-69067-xvb031.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277539/original/file-20190603-69067-xvb031.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277539/original/file-20190603-69067-xvb031.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Faster VLocity trains now connect Victoria regional centres and Melbourne.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Melton_VLine_Train_October_2018.JPG">Mattinbgn/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_Tilt_Train">Queensland</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prospector_(train)">Western Australia</a> also have trains that can move at 160km/h on good tracks. </p>
<p>However, in New South Wales, the preponderance of mainline track with “steam age” alignment with many tight curves means intercity train speeds are too slow. The NSW government, along with <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/current-projects/new-intercity-fleet">ordering new intercity trains</a>, has retained an overseas expert, Professor Andrew MacNaughton, to <a href="https://www.nsw.gov.au/improving-nsw/projects-and-initiatives/a-fast-rail-future-for-nsw/">advise on high-speed rail versus faster rail and track upgrades</a> to speed up trains. This is for the four main lines from Sydney to each of Newcastle, Orange, Canberra, and Wollongong. </p>
<p>These lines offer good potential to speed up trains by rebuilding old sections of track. In fact, between Sydney and Junee, there is scope to reduce the point-to-point distance by 60km to speed up freight trains plus reduce fuel use and emissions. </p>
<p>This track upgrade, along with tilt trains, would also allow the 11-hour Sydney-Melbourne XPT travel time to be cut <a href="https://www.atrf.info/papers/2002/2002_Laird_Mitchell_Adorni_Braccesi.pdf">to about six hours or less</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116512/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council, the former Rail CRC's and other agencies to assist rail research projects and holds shares in rail related companies. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Transport and Logistics and is affiliated with the Rail Futures Institute and the Railway Technical Society of Australasia
</span></em></p>More than half a century after the first high-speed trains began running overseas, Australia is still waiting for the long-promised service. Right now, faster rail is a better short-term prospect.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1011022018-08-07T07:21:48Z2018-08-07T07:21:48ZHow many people make a good city? It’s not the size that matters, but how you use it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230842/original/file-20180807-191013-1i6bix1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most of Australia's population is concentrated in big cities like Sydney and Melbourne.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia’s population clock is, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument">according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics</a>, steadily ticking away at an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 23 seconds. It’s <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/0/1647509ef7e25faaca2568a900154b63?OpenDocument">set to tick over</a> to 25 million around 11pm tonight.</p>
<p>Many are debating what the <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/08/06/15/11/australia-25-million-population-milestone-urban-planning-growing-pains">ideal population</a> is for a country like Australia. But because most of this population growth is concentrated in our big cities, perhaps we should be thinking less about that and more about the ideal size of a city. Historically, there have been many theories on what this would be.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/migration-helps-balance-our-ageing-population-we-dont-need-a-moratorium-100030">Migration helps balance our ageing population – we don't need a moratorium</a>
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<h2>From Aristotle to Albanese</h2>
<p>For Aristotle (384–322 BC), for instance, the key was balance. Cities had to contain a minimum number of groups, such as citizens and slaves, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00243.x">to work politically</a>. Similarly, a city’s population had to be balanced against the size of the territory it drew its resources from to enable each citizen (but not slave) to have what he called a “good life”. </p>
<p>Aristotle reputedly drew on the constitutions of what were then known as city states. These aren’t directly comparable to today’s cities but do make for good test cases with which to examine urban models. City states of the time, in the vanguard of urban life as they were, were equivalent to small towns of today and less connected and more homogeneous. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=397&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230845/original/file-20180807-191019-1brkjvb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=499&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">City states in Ancient Greece were more like today’s small towns.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>During the 20th century, as the world’s population grew, planners around the world tried to deliberately limit the size of cities. But how did they decide on the ideal size? </p>
<p>Planning theorist <a href="https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Town_planning_at_the_crossroads.html?id=KJJFAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=yttps://books.google.com.au/books/about/Town_planning_at_the_crossroads.html?id=KJJFAQAAIAAJ&redir_esc=y">Lewis Keeble wrote</a> in the late 1950s that the ideal UK city size could be determined by setting the distance for citizens to reach the countryside. So, a resident in the centre of a town could reasonably be expected to walk to the edge of the city for a distance of two miles (3.2km). </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230847/original/file-20180807-191025-133jahn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1132&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tokyo has successfully managed its population size.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">from shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Under this concept, with a density of 50 people per hectare, the ideal city size would be 160,000. For a city, where the population would have access to public transport, Keeble estimated this would be around 4 million. </p>
<p>Keeble was the first to admit these calculations were naive. Yet a calculation of city size based on the biological limits of the human body, mixed with the use of public transport, echoes contemporary thinking. Cities that often top the <a href="https://pages.eiu.com/rs/753-RIQ-438/images/Liveability_Free_Summary_2017.pdf">liveability scale</a> – such as Melbourne and Vancouver – are universally mid-sized (around 4-5 million people) with low population density.</p>
<p>More recently, in the late 1990s, the Italian physicist Cesare Marchetti’s term “the 30-minute city”, first proposed in a <a href="http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/4071/">relatively obscure paper</a>, has been drawn into policy language.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-30-minute-city-how-do-we-put-the-political-rhetoric-into-practice-56136">'The 30-minute city': how do we put the political rhetoric into practice?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the lead-up to the 2016 federal election, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull aimed for a deal to be struck between all levels of government, to deliver suburbs where residents can get to school or <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2016/s4452888.htm">work within 30 minutes</a>. And in a speech to the National Press Club two years earlier, Labor’s shadow minister for cities, Anthony Albanese, <a href="http://anthonyalbanese.com.au/address-to-the-national-press-club-canberra">said</a> he was “particularly attracted” to the concept of the 30-minute city.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is the simple concept that most people’s day-to-day work, educational, shopping or recreational activities should be located within 30 minutes’ walking, cycling or public commuting from their homes.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>It’s not the size that matters</h2>
<p>But a city’s liveability isn’t equal to its appeal for living and working in. Tokyo, the largest city in the world, will never top the liveability scale. Its infrastructure challenges are of a different order compared to Australia’s cities. The equivalent of Australia’s population passes <a href="https://www.railway-technology.com/projects/shinjuku-railway/">through the ticket barriers of Shinjuku</a>, its busiest station, in a week. </p>
<p>But these challenges are being managed quite successfully.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-lessons-from-tokyo-a-city-of-38m-people-for-australia-a-nation-of-24m-78335">Five lessons from Tokyo, a city of 38m people, for Australia, a nation of 24m</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This should give population planners a clue to how to deal with a big urban Australia: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Connecting cities. Urban, developed economies have understood that to use the surface areas that can be urbanised effectively they have to connect their large cities with smaller ones using high-speed rail. Large cities have the existing expensive infrastructure such as airports but the smaller cities are the ones that have the capacity to grow.</p></li>
<li><p>Connecting within cities. Transportation technologies are constantly evolving. While debates rage about infrastructure, from rail crossing to bike lanes, we are in fact in the middle of a revolution thanks to the uptake of a <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/23/17585814/lime-electric-scooter-bike-6-million-rides">range of low-speed electric vehicles</a>, such as scooters. Designing cities for these would benefit pedestrians (unlike cars) and would also anticipate the changes that are going to be necessary for an increasingly aged society.</p></li>
<li><p>Focus on small to medium cities. Even though the second-largest city in the world, Delhi, growing to the size of Tokyo without the same infrastructure is a scary prospect, the lion’s share of urban growth is happening in medium-sized cities. The top ten fastest-growing cities are all in Africa. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinder">fastest growing city to 2035 is going to be Zinder</a> in Niger, for example, a city of 300,000. If Australia were to follow this global trend, policies should be focusing on Newcastle over Sydney and Bendigo over Melbourne.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Ultimately, as Aristotle argued, cities are natural biological entities. Like all biological organisms they should have natural limits. Megacities of today are able to transcend those limits in ways that couldn’t have been imagined even 100 years ago. How long humanity can keep doing this is ultimately a question of biological destiny.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101102/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Amati receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program's Clean Air and Urban Landscape's Hub; the Australian Research Council and the Smart Cities and Suburbs Program.</span></em></p>Planners have long tried to determine the ideal city size, and ideas have evolved with changing circumstances. But a good city depends more on the way it’s managed than on how many people it holds.Marco Amati, Associate Professor of International Planning, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/958542018-05-13T20:29:29Z2018-05-13T20:29:29ZLet’s get moving with the affordable medium-speed alternatives to the old dream of high-speed rail<p>More than half a century has passed since high-speed rail (HSR) effectively began operating, in Japan in 1964, and it has been mooted for Australia since 1984. I estimate that the cost of all HSR studies by the private and public sectors in Australia exceeds $125 million, in today’s dollars. But the federal government is now less interested in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail">high-speed rail</a> (now defined as electric trains operating on steel rails at maximum speeds of above 250km per hour), and instead favours “<a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/rail/trains/faster_rail/index.aspx">faster rail</a>” or medium-speed rail. </p>
<p>The 2017 federal budget provided <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2017-18/content/glossies/jobs-growth/html/jobs-growth-01.htm">$20 billion over the next 10 years for rail</a>, with <a href="http://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/mcveigh/releases/2018/may/budget-infra_01-2018.aspx">more allocated</a> in the 2018 budget. It is now time for Australia to commit to medium-speed rail (trains operating on new or existing tracks at speeds of between 160km and 250km/h). </p>
<p>Indeed, three states have made progress in developing trains at 160km/h, with Victoria leading the way. New South Wales has failed to keep up with these states.</p>
<h2>What happened to high-speed rail in Australia?</h2>
<p>The first high-speed rail system dates back to 1964 when the <a href="https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2018_tokaido.html">Tokaido Shinkansen</a> started operating between Tokyo and Osaka. At first, it took four hours to travel 515 kilometres; now some trains take two-and-a-half hours. Japan’s system has an impeccable safety record and the network extends for over 3,000km.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218530/original/file-20180511-34006-1a32kgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218530/original/file-20180511-34006-1a32kgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218530/original/file-20180511-34006-1a32kgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218530/original/file-20180511-34006-1a32kgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218530/original/file-20180511-34006-1a32kgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218530/original/file-20180511-34006-1a32kgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218530/original/file-20180511-34006-1a32kgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218530/original/file-20180511-34006-1a32kgw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=560&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An image prepared in 1984 by the late Phil Belbin of what the Very Fast Train south of Canberra could look like.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Railway Digest (ARHS/NSW) June 2004</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>France was next in 1981 with its <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TGV">TGV trains</a>. In 1984, high-speed rail was <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/Background_Papers/bp9798/98bp16">first proposed for Australia</a>. This was the CSIRO’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Very_Fast_Train_Joint_Venture">Very Fast Train</a> proposal to link Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne using TGV trains. </p>
<p>At all levels, government was not supportive. The private sector, after a series of studies, found it was viable and could work with different taxation arrangements. This was not forthcoming and work stopped in 1991.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218529/original/file-20180511-34027-1ouout.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218529/original/file-20180511-34027-1ouout.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218529/original/file-20180511-34027-1ouout.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218529/original/file-20180511-34027-1ouout.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218529/original/file-20180511-34027-1ouout.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=334&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218529/original/file-20180511-34027-1ouout.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218529/original/file-20180511-34027-1ouout.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218529/original/file-20180511-34027-1ouout.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An image from the 1990s of a SpeedRail train at Central Station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Railway Digest (ARHS/NSW)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A more modest proposal, called Speedrail, to connect Sydney and Canberra was <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Publications_Archive/Background_Papers/bp9798/98bp16">proposed in the mid-1990s</a>. With some federal government encouragement, it was studied, with detailed design. It was costed at about $4.5 billion, with finance arranged for some $3.5 billion. The Howard government would not fund the balance and commissioned yet another HSR study.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-australian-high-speed-rail-overcome-its-bumpy-history-2640">Can Australian high speed rail overcome its bumpy history?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>More studies have followed. One study in 2013 put a price tag of $23 billion on a Sydney-Canberra line involving much tunnelling in Sydney. This was part of a 1,750km high-speed rail corridor linking Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne. The total estimated cost was <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2014/January/high-speed-rail">A$114 billion</a>. </p>
<p>Despite many studies recommending the need to identify and protect a corridor for a future high-speed rail network, government has failed to reserve any land corridors (with the exception of part of a future Melbourne outer metropolitan ring road).</p>
<h2>What about the alternatives?</h2>
<p>Many countries do <a href="http://railknowledgebank.com/Presto/content/Detail.aspx?ctID=MTk4MTRjNDUtNWQ0My00OTBmLTllYWUtZWFjM2U2OTE0ZDY3&rID=MjQwMA==&qrs=RmFsc2U=&ph=VHJ1ZQ==&bckToL=VHJ1ZQ==&rrtc=VHJ1ZQ==">not have high-speed rail, but have medium-speed rail</a> (MSR) instead. These countries include Sweden, Switzerland, the United States and Canada.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218535/original/file-20180511-34015-vv508a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218535/original/file-20180511-34015-vv508a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/218535/original/file-20180511-34015-vv508a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218535/original/file-20180511-34015-vv508a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218535/original/file-20180511-34015-vv508a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=461&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218535/original/file-20180511-34015-vv508a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218535/original/file-20180511-34015-vv508a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/218535/original/file-20180511-34015-vv508a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=579&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queensland’s Tilt Train intercity service has been running for nearly 20 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:City_of_Rockhampton_train_(Sunshine_railway_station,_Brisbane).jpg">QRtrains/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Three Australian states have trains operating at 160km/h. These are Queensland, starting in 1998 with its <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_Tilt_Train">Electric Tilt Train</a> service between Brisbane and Rockhampton, Victoria, with its <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Fast_Rail_project">Regional Fast Rail</a> project using <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V/Line_VLocity">V/Locity</a> diesel multiple units, and Western Australia, with the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transwa_Prospector">Prospector</a> train.</p>
<p>Victoria’s service originated in 1999 when the then Labor opposition promised a new deal for regional Victoria, which included new trains and upgraded tracks on four lines to Bendigo, Ballarat, Geelong and Gippsland. The ALP won government that year. By 2006 the track upgrades were delivered along with new trains made in Victoria. </p>
<p>People liked the faster trains. Patronage went up <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/regional-rail-travel-booming-despite-delays-20090605-byld.html">by more than 15% in each of the first three years</a> of operation. More trains were ordered and further major track upgrades followed.</p>
<p>Victoria was assisted by $3 billion in federal funding for a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Rail_Link">Regional Rail Link</a> program. This was to provide new intercity tracks in Melbourne so suburban trains did not slow down regional trains.</p>
<p>Due to good ongoing planning attracting more federal funding,
further track upgrades are under way. The 2017 <a href="https://www.vic.gov.au/infrastructureplan/a-long-term-plan/about-the-plan.html">Victorian Infrastructure Plan</a> outlines priorities and funding for projects over the next five years, with longer-term policy directions.</p>
<h2>So what’s going on in NSW?</h2>
<p>Questions are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/state-row-%20looms-over-24-5-billion-budget-rail-projects-20180507-%20p4zdwo.html">now being asked</a> as to why Victoria and WA are doing do well with federal funding for passenger rail at the expense of NSW.</p>
<p>The rail situation in Australia’s most populated state is not good for its regions. By far the most NSW government attention and funding has gone into the Greater Sydney region. </p>
<p>Between the 2011 and the 2016 Censuses, Greater Sydney’s population (including Gosford) grew some 10% from <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/Media%20Release10">4.39 to 4.82 million</a>. Rail patronage on the Sydney and intercity network had even stronger growth of some 15% from <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lc/papers/DBAssets/tabledpaper/WebAttachments/9073/TfNSW%20Annual%20Report%202012-13.pdf">2011</a> to <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/data-and-research/passenger-travel/train-patronage/train-patronage-monthly-figures">2016</a>.</p>
<p>To try to cope with this increasing demand for rail a <a href="https://www.sydneymetro.info/about">new Metro section</a> is due to be completed in 2019. Light rail is also being introduced in <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/programs/light-rail-program">Sydney</a>, <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/current-projects/newcastle-light-rail">Newcastle</a> and <a href="http://www.parramattalightrail.nsw.gov.au/">Parramatta</a>. </p>
<p>Sydney continues to have serious road traffic problems, which are unlikely to be solved by WestConnex Stages 1 and 2 that are now under construction. The proposed Stage 3 received over 7,000 objections, including a sensible alternative proposal by the City of Sydney, but the NSW government has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-27/westconnex-stage-three-gets-approval/9704092">approved Stage 3</a> and even more motorways. This is despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/transit-networks-are-key-to-smart-growth-in-suburbs-90992">overseas experience</a> for cities the size of Sydney pointing to the best solution being a much-improved rail system with <a href="https://theconversation.com/delay-in-changing-direction-on-how-we-tax-drivers-will-cost-us-all-87931">road congestion pricing</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/road-user-charging-belongs-on-the-political-agenda-as-the-best-answer-for-congestion-management-65027">Road user charging belongs on the political agenda as the best answer for congestion management</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Regional NSW is also growing in population, albeit not as quickly as Sydney. In spring 2017, Transport for NSW released a <a href="https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/plans">draft regional servicea and infrastructure plan</a> not for the next five years, but out to 2056. However, these plans were very vague as to what may be delivered in the next five or even ten years. </p>
<p>The plans also omitted earlier Infrastructure NSW goals for Sydney-Gosford and Sydney-Wollongong trains to take one hours (instead of one-and-a-half) and Sydney-Newcastle trains to take two hours. In addition, there are calls for more and faster trains linking to each of Goulburn/Canberra and the Central West of NSW.</p>
<p>Clearly, NSW is facing major transport challenges to overcome rail infrastructure backlogs and meet the needs of a growing population.</p>
<p>The state government <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/current-projects/new-intercity-fleet">is getting</a> new <a href="http://blog.jxeeno.com/new-intercity-fleet-what-to-expect/">intercity electric trains</a> and has committed to buying <a href="https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/current-projects/regional-rail">new regional trains</a>. But it’s yet to commit to track upgrades to help the new trains go faster than the present slow ones. </p>
<p>The NSW ALP opposition is also yet to present detailed policies of how it would meet the transport challenges in Sydney and in regional NSW.</p>
<p>The people of NSW must hope the state budget due June 19 and the opposition leader’s reply will address these issues.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95854/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Laird owns shares in some rail companies and has previously received funding from the two Rail related CRCs and is affiliated, inter alia, with the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, and Engineers Australia. The opinions expressed are those of the author.</span></em></p>High-speed rail for Australia has been on the drawing boards since the mid-1980s but has come to nothing. Three states are developing medium-speed rail with federal funding, but NSW is missing out.Philip Laird, Honorary Principal Fellow, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/711002017-01-11T12:39:50Z2017-01-11T12:39:50ZHow we can make super-fast hyperloop travel a reality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152283/original/image-20170110-29045-15uxm3m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Across Europe and parts of Asia, travellers can enjoy some of the fastest rail services in the world. From Málaga to Madrid, Tokyo to Osaka, high-speed electric trains condense the travel times between major hubs by racing along at some 300kph. The fastest commercial service in the world is the Shanghai maglev – short for magnetic levitation, the method of propulsion it uses to glide along its tracks <a href="http://www.railway-technology.com/features/feature-top-ten-fastest-trains-in-the-world">as rapidly as 430kph</a>. </p>
<p>Of course, air travel is still much faster: an Airbus A380 aircraft has a cruising speed of <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4990780.stm">over 1,000kph</a>. But at a time when reducing emissions is a top priority across the globe, there’s an urgent demand for cleaner, more energy-efficient alternatives – especially in the US, which is by far <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.PSGR?year_high_desc=true">the world’s biggest user of air travel</a>, with almost 800m passengers each year. Enter, the Hyperloop – a train-like technology which has the potential to match air travel for speed. </p>
<p>Hyperloop is the brainchild of US business magnate Elon Musk. First <a href="http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/hyperloop_alpha-20130812.pdf">proposed in 2013</a>, the Hyperloop system consists of “pods”, which are suspended inside a tube by magnetic levitation and propelled using a linear electric motor. The environment inside the tube is almost a complete vacuum, allowing the pods to travel at great speeds without being slowed by air resistance. The tubes themselves can be placed underground, or run above ground, elevated by columns. </p>
<h2>The race begins</h2>
<p>Musk originally intended the Hyperloop to cover the 600km route from Los Angeles to San Francisco at an average speed of about 960kph, reducing what’s currently a 12-hour train journey to just 35 minutes. Although funding has since been channelled into a bullet train service for this route, the idea of the hyperloop has <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/cities-vie-hop-super-speedy-hyperloop-rail-171056964.html">attracted interest elsewhere</a>. </p>
<p>The wealthy city-state of Dubai <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/11/10/500mph-hyperloop-train-will-travel-from-dubai-to-abu-dhabi-in-12/">has agreed</a> to conduct a feasibility study for a 150km link with Abu Dhabi. There’s also <a href="https://www.dezeen.com/2016/03/11/hyperloop-to-connect-european-cities-bratislava-vienna-budapest/">a proposal</a> to connect Vienna with Budapest and Bratislava. And US start-up Hyperloop One recently <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/cities-vie-hop-super-speedy-hyperloop-rail-171056964.html">announced a shortlist</a> of 35 potential hyperloop test projects, which included proposals for routes linking Sydney with Melbourne, London with Edinburgh and Mumbai with Delhi. </p>
<p>While these developments have sparked much excitement, some <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-future-of-rail-travel-and-why-it-doesnt-look-like-hyperloop-45354">remain sceptical</a> about whether they can work in the real world. </p>
<h2>Too fast to function?</h2>
<p>Hyperloop pods are designed to reach their top speed of 1,220kph (slightly less than the speed of sound) in about 70 seconds, when accelerating at 0.5G (the “G” refers to <a href="http://www.gforces.net/what-is-g-force-meaning.html">“G-force”</a>, which is how we measure acceleration). </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=390&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/152384/original/image-20170111-16057-13yabal.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=490&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Feel the force.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">From www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To put this in context, at 1G we are pushed into the back of our seat with a force equal to our body weight – it would be uncomfortable. But the acceleration of an aircraft during takeoff is typically around 0.4G, and most people are happy with that. </p>
<p>We also experience G-forces when we go around a curve. This “centrifugal force” is what flings you from side to side on fairground rides. Again, about 0.5G is the limit for comfort. Travelling at speeds of 1,220kph sets the minimum curve radius to about 23km, which means that the track has to be pretty straight. It must be very level, too, because vertical hills and bumps also give rise to G-forces.</p>
<p>With the right site, these constraints could be manageable. The real challenge for hyperloop will be dealing with earth movements. In all large-scale engineering, allowances are made for thermal expansion, ground water and seismic activity – things that make the ground shift around. Normally, these aren’t too much of a problem. There are expansion joints in bridges and pavements, and even when subsidence causes cracks to appear in a wall, we shrug our shoulders and say “so what?”. </p>
<p>But movement in the hyperloop track could cause real problems, when the pods are travelling at such high speeds. That’s why Musk favours a track on columns, so that it can be adjusted and realigned in the event of ground movement. Indeed, we already do this kind of realignment with conventional railway tracks: the rails on sleepers are loosely supported on ballast and regular “tamping” ensures that the track is kept straight.</p>
<p>With such demanding specifications, actually constructing a hyperloop will not be cheap. But the days of aircraft and ships are numbered, unless we can find a way to power them with electricity or hydrogen fuel. Perhaps we could even learn to live with <a href="http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/transport/nuclear-powered-ships.aspx">nuclear-powered ships</a>. Hyperloop offers a novel vision of the future of long-distance travel – one that might just catch on.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hugh Hunt is a Fellow of Trinity College Cambridge</span></em></p>With 35 new inter-city routes shortlisted for testing, it’s time to start taking hyperloop seriously.Hugh Hunt, Reader in Engineering Dynamics and Vibration, University of CambridgeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/633302016-08-02T00:41:49Z2016-08-02T00:41:49ZHigh speed rail plan still needs to prove economic benefits will outweigh costs<p>The <a href="http://www.clara.com.au/">CLARA private consortium</a> claims a high speed rail network between Sydney and Melbourne could be paid for at no cost to the government through a technique known as <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-value-capture-and-what-does-it-mean-for-cities-58776">value capture</a>. What is still not clear is whether there will be enough value created by the project to capture in order to pay for the project.</p>
<p>Value capture is well established techniques used by governments to offset some of the costs of new transport infrastructure, for instance the taxes paid on apartments built near a new train station help to offset the cost of the transport investment. The taxes paid by warehouses or factories built near new freeways are another good example of value capture.</p>
<p>CLARA’s proposal is that the high speed rail can be paid for by purchasing land cheaply in regional New South Wales and Victoria then developing a string of new towns alongside the High Speed Railway. The sale of land would fund the High Speed Railway’s construction and the new residents would provide patronage for the railway. </p>
<p>This form of development was once common place with the suburban railways of London and the urban railways of Tokyo and Hong Kong being the most famous examples. However, this sort of value capture by private investors is much rarer today and unprecedented on this scale. </p>
<p>The first stage proposal involves a A$13 billion link from Melbourne to the Greater Shepparton region of Northern Victoria, the full link to Sydney with a branch to Canberra would cost many times this much. The CLARA consortium is claiming the exact figure as commercial in confidence, but a cost of around $200 billion has been suggested in the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-14/high-speed-rail-linking-sydney-and-melbourne-one-step-closer/7627990">media</a>.</p>
<p>CLARA haven’t released the full business case for the network but value of the project can be assessed by its benefits and whether or not the project will capture them.</p>
<p>High speed rail creates benefits for two types of travellers, longer distance commuters and intercity travellers. Previous proposals for high speed rail have floundered in Australia because the benefits to intercity travellers have just not been enough to justify the costs of developing and running it. </p>
<p>Australian cities are just too far apart for a high speed rail to be competitive on travel time and fares with aviation. Perhaps this will change over the 40 years that it will take to build the network but there is no evidence that this is happening at the moment.</p>
<p>Unlike previous plans, CLARA is emphasising the potential of the longer distance commuter market (e.g. Canberra or Goulburn to Sydney). There is a developing market for commuting by <a href="http://www.londonreconnections.com/2016/high-speed-buffers-part-3-limits-commuting/">High Speed Rail in the UK</a> amongst other countries. </p>
<p>There is no doubt that high speed rail would be faster over these sorts of distances than the alternatives (ordinary rail, coaches, private car) although it might be a challenge to schedule high speed intercity services alongside slower commuter services and building dedicated high speed rail lines into the Central Business Districts of Sydney and Melbourne will be very expensive. These travellers will gain benefits from a faster service and also from being able to purchase houses in more affordable regional areas.</p>
<p>Land prices are a capitalisation of the benefits that accrue to people who use that land. In the case of residential land, it reflects the benefits to be had in terms of access to schools, jobs, recreation facilities, etc. </p>
<p>Improved transport services reduce the time it takes to get to existing jobs and activities plus makes it possible to travel to additional jobs and activities within a reasonable time and, finally, encourages new jobs and activities to be created through the process of economies of scale and agglomeration. </p>
<p>Some of these benefits accrue to the travellers, others to the owners of the businesses who can hire from a bigger pool of potential employees and service a bigger pool of customers. Because of these benefits travellers and businesses bid up the price of land in places near the improved transport services thus sharing the benefits with the land owners (and with governments in the form of the taxes paid on income, property transactions and developments). It is this increase in land that CLARA hopes to tap into to fund the new high speed rail. </p>
<p>This project will only be successful if the new rail service generates enough benefits and this will only happen if people really will be prepared to pay higher fares for high speed rail or prefer lower fares on traditional train services from cities closer in (i.e. Wollongong). If not, will governments have to ban development in other cities to force people to move to CLARA’s townships in order to support the developers of the HSR?</p>
<p>Value capture is a rediscovered form of financing major projects that could prove an innovative source of funds but it does not remove the need for a project’s benefits to exceed its costs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63330/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Clifton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The private consortium CLARA is proposing a high speed rail network between Sydney and Melbourne paid for by value capture but it still relies on the benefits outweighing the costs.Geoffrey Clifton, Lecturer in Transport and Logistics Management, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/630972016-08-01T00:36:15Z2016-08-01T00:36:15ZCommuters help regions tap into city-driven growth<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132463/original/image-20160729-24645-1tw02q5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Connecting the city and regions, long-distance commuting is a significant factor in regional centres.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/silverback40/15345971069/in/photolist-89dRK-b5D5iV-fxgeyR-po57y6-6fpFMN-a5FgM6-9RQuuB-9RTpdd-rCLX5-aHPSf-74ojZn-rCLUy-6weLtx-fyf6E-9MxWVh-fyf9S-74wPo6-agCsW4-DzXxQS-aejTy5-6Ke5GC-74AHfL-6gkvjW-74sRES-6hGGJQ-74AGCQ-647BYx-74sAay-dS4XFZ-74AFGL-8Z7UDW-4cfJWc-bJrozt-jy1dM-bJtygx-rWfCwp-6ggjFH-bvuutC-j5rE76-6sNyHh-qXAsNf-HJJoe-7o8pbv-8bxnoJ-8bu6S2-Yurh-sPrfo-s3JUde-rJbxwx-Am9iQW">Peter Mackey/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a strong geographic element to the transitions in the Australian economy that our prime minister so frequently refers to. Generally, the old economy, based on manufacturing, mining and agriculture, provided employment and opportunity in regional Australia, whereas the new jobs in knowledge-intensive industries are predominantly created in the centre of our largest cities.</p>
<p>The federal government’s recent <a href="https://cities.dpmc.gov.au/smart-cities-plan">Smart Cities Plan</a> states:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australia’s growth as a knowledge-based economy, and the prosperity this offers, goes hand in hand with the growth of our cities and the regions surrounding them.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But how does this growth in city-centric industries translate to regional growth?
Commuting may provide the answer.</p>
<p>That people travelling from regional areas to work in cities may distribute both financial and population growth was first proposed by Gunnar Myrdal in 1963. This applies particularly when this commuting is associated with the relocation of households from the cities.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132461/original/image-20160729-24650-1qoual6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132461/original/image-20160729-24650-1qoual6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/132461/original/image-20160729-24650-1qoual6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132461/original/image-20160729-24650-1qoual6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132461/original/image-20160729-24650-1qoual6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=715&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132461/original/image-20160729-24650-1qoual6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132461/original/image-20160729-24650-1qoual6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/132461/original/image-20160729-24650-1qoual6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=898&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s latest high-speed rail proposal envisages commuter-driven regional development.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/64186367@N05/5847113568/in/photostream/">spamlian/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More recently, the <a href="http://theconversation.com/high-speed-rail-at-200-billion-wed-better-get-it-right-62541">CLARA</a> proposal bases regional development on high-speed city rail access and attracting commuters to new cities between Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>In Victoria, the flight of city dwellers to picturesque regional cities and towns has received regular media coverage over the past decade. An example is the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/castlemaine-becomes-northcote-north-as-treechangers-leave-gentrified-melbourne-20090529-bqbm.html">Northcote North</a> phenomenon: 2006 Census data indicated most of the new residents of Castlemaine had relocated from Melbourne’s inner north.</p>
<h2>Rise of the long-distance commuter</h2>
<p>Census data also indicate that a significant number of these metropolitan escapees work in Melbourne. In Geelong, 2011 Census data show that more than 11,000 residents of the regional city travelled to work in Melbourne. That was nearly 13% of the city’s resident workforce.</p>
<p>This growth in commuting has occurred across Australia. Wollongong Lord Mayor Gordon Bradbery said it’s no longer a steel city but <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/wollongong-contemplates/6845696">“a lifestyle city”</a> when proposing that Sydney commuters may help offset continued <a href="http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/3769034/steel-job-losses-leave-400m-hole-in-economy/?cs=300">job losses at the local steel plant</a>. He said more than 20,000 of the city’s residents commute to the New South Wales capital each day.</p>
<p>For cities like Wollongong and Geelong, commuting may provide important economic benefits as their traditional industrial strengths <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/manufacturing/ford-factory-in-australia-wont-close-early-as-shutdown-date-confirmed/news-story/2b66807b289188fa5f9c5b1485b73bda">decline</a> and even <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/alcoas-point-henry-aluminium-smelter-in-geelong-prepares-to-close-20140730-3cu9w.html">close</a>.</p>
<p>The increase in regional-urban commuting can be seen as not just the result of the increase in well-paid employment towards the <a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/mapping-australias-economy-cities-as-engines-of-prosperity/">centre of our larger cities</a>. Rising housing costs have also played a part.</p>
<p>In a recent interview, a new resident of Torquay said that, for similar prices, it was a choice between the beachside town and a new housing development on the outskirts of Melbourne. Other reasons for regional relocation include friends and family, rural amenity and work arrangements for other household members, but metropolitan housing costs appear to be a significant factor.</p>
<h2>What do regions get out of this?</h2>
<p>Regional-urban commuters’ access to well-paid employment is an important factor in spreading economic benefits. For example, about 30% of Geelong residents who earned more than $2,000 per week in 2011 worked in Melbourne. </p>
<p>It is also important to note that, in 2011, more than 50% of the Victorian regional-urban commuters had changed their place of residence in the preceding five years: people are moving to commute and bringing higher incomes and families with them. There is <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/lucirc/2015_020.html">evidence</a> to suggest that this additional income may lead to higher regional employment in retail and service industries.</p>
<p>However, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096585641000056X">research indicates</a> that many people do not continue long-distance commuting for more than a few years. This can be attributed to the links between long-distance commuting and poor physical and mental health, family problems and reduced community engagement. </p>
<p>Economists suggest that when deciding to commute long distances, people are not good at evaluating the non-pecuniary costs of commuting and the higher wages associated with commuting do not fully compensate for these costs.</p>
<p>Regional-urban commuters are more likely to work in the growing knowledge-based industries than their regional counterparts, in the census categories information, media and telecommunications; financial and insurance services; and professional, scientific and technical services. </p>
<p>When commuters tire of the travel, should they continue to live regionally and seek local work, this may be more significant for regional growth than the impact of the additional income. Some of these people may start new businesses closer to home, or provide a labour pool for other businesses in the area.</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.facebook.com/RegionalCommutingResearch/">survey</a> is under way asking regional-urban commuters about their work and considerations of change. Preliminary results indicate that the main reason people start regional-urban commuting is that their work is not available where they live. Many would work locally if they could.</p>
<p>The tendency for commuters to find or create local employment as they tire of the time spent in transit is central to understanding how regions can grow through interactions with larger cities.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>You can find project updates and the commuter survey <a href="https://www.facebook.com/RegionalCommutingResearch">here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63097/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Denham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Long-distance commuting may help promote the development of regional cities by boosting local populations, skills and incomes.Todd Denham, PhD Candidate, School of Global, Urban & Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/625412016-07-18T03:43:57Z2016-07-18T03:43:57ZHigh-speed rail? At $200 billion we’d better get it right<p>As an urban rail activist, academic and commentator, including a spell on Infrastructure Australia, I can say from the start I was delighted that we have a consortium prepared to have a go at high-speed rail using <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-value-capture-and-what-does-it-mean-for-cities-58776">value capture</a>. </p>
<p>Consolidated Land and Rail Australia (CLARA) is the first group in Australia to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-14/high-speed-rail-linking-sydney-and-melbourne-one-step-closer/7627990">suggest that a major rail option</a> can be funded without government capital. This fits with what we have been saying for a number of years (for example, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-build-better-cities-get-the-private-sector-involved-in-rail-projects-52204">entrepreneur rail model</a>).</p>
<p>It is not just a way of bringing financing groups like superannuation funds into such major infrastructure projects where governments have no hope of finding the cash, but it is also a better way: it inherently integrates with land development opportunities to make less car-dependent cities. </p>
<p>High-speed rail is needed. We are the last major developed area without it. </p>
<p>It is now a well-established technology that can simultaneously reduce car use and plane use. It is a way to reduce our oil dependence and to help us meet our greenhouse emissions, as have <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter8.pdf">Japan, China and Europe</a> in recent decades. </p>
<h2>Key issues to be overcome</h2>
<p>However, some issues need to be resolved for this proposal and, indeed, the other three consortia that I have heard are also keen to build high-speed rail in Australia. </p>
<p>First, it’s not a project that should be an unsolicited bid with all its high commercial-in-confidence process. Such a project will have huge public significance and demands that we address the full implications – A$200 billion over 40 years is a lot of money for infrastructure and land development.</p>
<p>If this project goes ahead, many other infrastructure projects and land developments will not happen in the competitive marketplace of our cities and rural areas. This project will need to show great public benefit as well as enabling the private sector to take the risk and do the investing. </p>
<p>Second, what are we looking for from infrastructure like this? Surely we want it to build up our cities and the regional towns in between to have a more sustainable, productive and liveable future. </p>
<p>This project is very light on detail, understandably, about how it would come into the cities (it seems to just go from airport to airport on the urban fringes). It completely <a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/australia-could-soon-get-its-own-dormitory-towns-thanks-to-fast-rail/news-story/17674fcabf605308faea9d9164a23ded">misses all the major regional centres</a> like <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/fast-train-sydney-to-melbourne-in-110-minutes/news-story/e7ca20287a5b60974c99f6127dd0942f">Canberra, Wagga Wagga and Albury-Wodonga</a> in order to go much faster and cheaper <a href="https://theaustralianatnewscorpau.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/web-news-main-rail-map.pdf">through farmland</a>. </p>
<p>The Canberra Times <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/how-clara-links-canberra-to-sydneymelbourne-high-speed-train-20160714-gq5dx5.html">reported</a> a CLARA spokesperson saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The project would be privately funded on a value-uplift model. This needs new city development where maximum uplift in land values is available, which is not available in existing cities like Canberra, with elevated real estate prices. ‘They must be greenfield.’</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Value capture worldwide and in our model is done to facilitate urban regeneration, not to create new car-dependent greenfield suburbs. CLARA’s model is <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/valuecapture-process-could-help-fund-building-of-very-fast-train/news-story/adc815db4c51947ed8e401d014c33669">seeking cheap, easily obtainable land</a> on the urban fringe and in rural areas rather than helping our cities and country towns. Not only is the value of this to Australia very debatable, it is not likely to be as successful in raising land values to achieve their goals. </p>
<p>There is a limit to how many wealthy, long-commute exurbs or retirement villages could be induced to invest in such places in the countryside. The strong economic demand is for <a href="http://islandpress.org/book/the-end-of-automobile-dependence">urban regeneration</a> inside the old parts of our cities and towns. This has been an important part of the rationale for high-speed rail in other places.</p>
<p>The CLARA model is an extension of the failed idea of building new towns in greenfield areas. It has failed in Australia and in the UK and US because urban development needs to be more organic, building on the historic processes, local communities and multiple services of the cities and towns built up over hundreds of years. The modernist new towns have all struggled as they are designed from the top down. </p>
<p>It may be appealing to take a fresh sheet and drop it from on high, and very messy to have to deal with so many land owners and local governments in the old cities and towns, but it should not be beyond us. </p>
<h2>Principles to guide a successful project</h2>
<p>To make high-speed rail and urban development happen in a way that benefits Australian cities and towns, I suggest we should try to follow the principles below. </p>
<ol>
<li><p>It is important to attract private capital for combined land development and transport, but this should be led by locational strategies where redevelopment is most needed, not by transport engineering simplicity. </p></li>
<li><p>Benefit-cost assessments should include long-term urban and sustainability goals. </p></li>
<li><p>Public-private partnerships (PPPs) should include core commitments to community engagement, integrated public transport delivery, equitable and time-of-travel-dependent fare structures, safety, consumer and environmental protection, and urban design quality. </p></li>
<li><p>The projects should not just be innovative in financing and PPP delivery but be agile enough to include disruptive innovations such as solar PV-based electric rail, new carbon fibre and other materials, very smart systems for control at high speed, and effective noise management. </p></li>
</ol>
<p>High-speed rail has been a long time coming for Australia. It’s a very big and beautiful opportunity, so let’s get it right.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62541/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>High-speed rail is now a well-established technology and Australia needs it, as long as the project ticks all the boxes needed to deliver both private and public benefits.Peter Newman, Professor of Sustainability, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/577332016-04-13T06:30:00Z2016-04-13T06:30:00ZDelays at Canberra: why Australia should have built fast rail decades ago<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118508/original/image-20160413-18119-1hgyppz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are we there yet?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mattinbgn/Wikimedia Commons</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/malcolm-turnbulls-ticket-to-deliver-fast-train/news-story/feae238d4c3a6253982e28ff4e156c94">front-page headlines</a> generated this week by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s promise to link Australia’s major eastern cities by fast rail may be seen by many voters as yet another major infrastructure pledge made hurriedly in the run-up to a federal election that is likely to evaporate just as quickly afterwards. </p>
<p>Fast intercity rail certainly has form when it comes to being put on the table only to be whipped away again. Linking Australia’s two biggest cities by rail would be in the same nation-building category as the <a href="http://www.snowyhydro.com.au/energy/hydro/snowy-mountains-scheme/">Snowy Mountains Scheme</a>, yet we have been talking about it for decades without actually doing it. </p>
<p>How different might things be now if Australia had built the <a href="http://www.repositoryofideas.com/VFT_information.html">Very Fast Train</a> (VFT), first proposed in 1984 by the then CSIRO chairman, Paul Wild. The plan (on which I worked) attracted the support of leading companies of the day, including BHP and Elders IXL, but was bogged down in taxation issues and eventually scrapped in 1991. </p>
<p>If it had gone ahead, we would have had an infrastructure capable of shaping the new century for Australia’s densely populated east coast, instead of still waiting for it today.</p>
<h2>The route</h2>
<p>The first choice was a coastal route running from Melbourne through the Latrobe Valley (and what a boost that would have been to a region that even then was struggling with its over-reliance on brown coal), the Gippsland lakes (with a branch line to the mountain resorts), the southern New South Wales coastal towns and into Sydney via Wollongong (a rust-belt city at that time that would also have benefited from this investment). </p>
<p>This was later replaced by an inland route identified by the CSIRO and the VFT consortium, after a series of localised environmental protests. Canberra became one of the designated stations on the inland route and the rest is history – there has never been a return to the original route, despite the fact that <a href="https://infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure/pab/soac/">more than 90% of Australians</a> live near the coast. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118501/original/image-20160413-18122-w2r2vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118501/original/image-20160413-18122-w2r2vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118501/original/image-20160413-18122-w2r2vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118501/original/image-20160413-18122-w2r2vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118501/original/image-20160413-18122-w2r2vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118501/original/image-20160413-18122-w2r2vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118501/original/image-20160413-18122-w2r2vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118501/original/image-20160413-18122-w2r2vx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fast rail route proposed in 1987, after being diverted inland via Canberra.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.repositoryofideas.com/resources/VFT-route-map-from-June-1987-pre-feasibility-report.pdf">VFT consortium</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The funding</h2>
<p>Perhaps unsurprisingly, finance was the original project’s downfall. It became a private-sector joint venture in 1987 but collapsed in 1991 when the federal government decided against easing the tax burden on the project’s initial major outlays in return for higher tax overall.</p>
<p>Australian governments have struggled ever since to find ways for public-private partnerships to fund big projects. Until now, perhaps. </p>
<p>This time around, Turnbull has touted the prospect of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-light-rail-in-our-cities-without-emptying-the-public-purse-39255">value capture</a>”: the financial benefit that the private sector could gain from the boost to urban development around stations – as seen, for example, near Japan’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shinkansen">Shinkansen (bullet train) stations</a>. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/policy-publications/submissions/published/files/486_propertycouncilofaustralia_SUB2.pdf">tax increment financing</a> (TIF) schemes, which are more common in the United States for financing infrastructure projects, value capture by governments via increased property rates and taxes has provided a basis for public sector funding. But this has not proved popular in Australia.</p>
<h2>The challenge</h2>
<p>We have even more urban and regional challenges than we did three decades ago. Sydney and Melbourne are each facing rapid population growth and will need to avoid the damaging consequences of urban sprawl and car dependence. Both cities will need to redirect growth inwards, to <a href="https://www.epa.gov/brownfields/brownfield-overview-and-definition">brownfield</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/unlocking-the-greyfields-to-inhibit-urban-sprawl-7748">greyfield</a> sites.</p>
<p>Another consideration is how to disperse the population into regional cities, so these areas can also benefit from improved economic activity. Fast rail can potentially help regional cities become part of a “mega-metropolitan” economic region. </p>
<p>For example, a 350 km per hour service connecting Melbourne with Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and Warragul would transform these provincial centres into the equivalent of Melbourne’s middle-ring suburbs, where 30-minute commutes are the norm. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118492/original/image-20160413-15868-hprsf4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118492/original/image-20160413-15868-hprsf4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/118492/original/image-20160413-15868-hprsf4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118492/original/image-20160413-15868-hprsf4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118492/original/image-20160413-15868-hprsf4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118492/original/image-20160413-15868-hprsf4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118492/original/image-20160413-15868-hprsf4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/118492/original/image-20160413-15868-hprsf4.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Travel times in minutes from Melbourne.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CSIRO/Australia State of the Environment Report, 1997</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This route would also be the beginning of an inter-capital fast rail route, from Melbourne to Canberra (possibly via Shepparton), and then running through various population centres, via Badgery’s Creek (Sydney’s proposed second international airport) to the Sydney CBD. </p>
<h2>The carbon case… and a bump in the track</h2>
<p>Almost <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/content/dam/EN/ResearchNews/ECO_Insights_230316.pdf">8 million passengers</a> flew between Melbourne and Sydney in 2015, making this route the world’s fourth busiest (ahead of Beijing-Shanghai). The carbon savings from a Melbourne-Sydney fast rail link therefore represent a major potential reduction in greenhouse emissions, especially if it is powered significantly by renewable energy. </p>
<p>This obviously wasn’t part of the business case back in the 1980s. But in 2016 it is surely a candidate for the federal government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/emissions-reduction-fund">Emissions Reduction Fund</a>.</p>
<p>The government’s proposed value capture funding model has a sting in the tail. Privately held land near the rail link and its stations will need to be rezoned and handed to private firms to build facilities (and surrounding developments) that they would then own and operate.</p>
<p>Land acquisition, even with compensation at market value, is generally not welcome in Australian cities. This is just one example of what makes transformational urban change so hard. But this kind of transformation will be critical to the creation of 21st-century cities that are productive, competitive, sustainable and liveable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/57733/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Newton receives funding from the Co-operative Research Centres for Low carbon Living and Spatial Information. He was also a member of CSIRO's VFT research team in the 1980s.</span></em></p>A fast rail link between Sydney and Melbourne was first proposed in 1984. So why haven’t we done it yet?Peter Newton, Research Professor in Sustainable Urbanism, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/486202015-10-07T13:32:43Z2015-10-07T13:32:43ZHS2: the trouble with relying on China for high-speed rail<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/97592/original/image-20151007-7333-1luwm5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/sharonhahndarlin/8386623442/in/photolist-dM6CXU-dLZY9p-5u4oZB-5u8Nod-df4N9Y-hkECAT-8Y7BRt-8MBDdG-4AXdx3-8WnoZh-KV2mf-e91zaB-e91xw6-e97fzY-b7Rt3g-7uxwco-dLZLVD-nedUnD-6Goyry-gz13o3-7xSdSe-9YuZ6g-6BxAua-9dCNBf-dB42mN-df4NCh-3fybpK-3egXn-pognE7-av4FPF-aY5drc-df4Nkd-df4NUB-aY5enP-gz1rYk-8SkEnM-8RVEh6-8RYKJm-8Sfbgg-7j6eZ8-9pbZp8-pBRuH5-qmRR1C-bBCtw1-91MEBC-91MDxf-91MFkh-9m3NWB-o6zdqf-oaoMAt">Sharon Hahn Darlin</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>George Osborne has made a major commitment to investing in UK infrastructure with the announcement of a new independent commission to oversee it. In particular, he has emphasised the role of railways in <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/news/george-osbornes-full-speech-tory-conference">making Britain “great”</a>. But, as with Osborne’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/serious-issues-for-george-osborne-on-chinas-role-in-the-uks-nuclear-future-48541">plans for nuclear energy</a>, he will be turning to China for help in building this costly infrastructure. </p>
<p>Osborne’s recent overture to the Chinese to bid to build the first phase of a new high-speed rail system between London and Birmingham (HS2) has left many in the UK perplexed and dismayed. The charge of kowtowing to the Chinese to take on this £11.8 billion project <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11883334/As-George-Osborne-kowtows-the-world-sinks-beneath-a-sea-of-Chinese-overcapacity.html">has been made</a> and the UK chancellor has also been accused of acting in contempt of the country’s legislature – as legislation enabling HS2 to proceed has yet to be formally signed off by the Queen. </p>
<h2>Underlying complexity</h2>
<p>Inevitably, the headlines understate the underlying complexity. On the one hand, the chancellor seems keen to link the UK with the newly-created Chinese <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-everyones-joining-the-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-39256">Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank</a>. Such is Osborne’s commitment to this bank that he overrode strong objections from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office as well as the US president, Barack Obama, and the World Bank <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c256e788-d3bc-11e4-a9d3-00144feab7de.html#axzz3nsHmQTkZ">when he made the decision to join it</a>. </p>
<p>Through this source the chancellor is also hoping for Chinese investment in the new nuclear power station at Hinkley Point, which carries a price tag of £25.5 billion. High-speed rail is, however, a more popular investment prospect <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11885334/EDF-Investors-shun-Hinkley-Point-because-they-think-it-will-go-wrong.html">than nuclear power</a>. Canadian pension funds, for example, have already heavily invested in high-speed rail – it was only a few years ago that one <a href="http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/single-view/view/high-speed-1-concession-awarded-to-canadian-pension-consortium.html">acquired HS1</a>. And these funds have signalled strong interest in further investment opportunities, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/transport/10901686/Owners-of-Channel-Tunnel-link-eye-HS2.html">including HS2</a>.</p>
<p>Yet there is a possible technical link here between the HS2 project and a new energy source like Hinkley Point. Quite simply, if the HS2 scheme achieves its design goal of an operating speed of 250mph, it will require access to a significant new power source. So there is some urgency to steer finance into both projects.</p>
<h2>Global leaders</h2>
<p>Certainly, the HS2 project appeals to Chinese interests in purely business terms. The Chinese government is keen to position itself as a global leader in the field after developing the technology domestically to link its widely dispersed nation of 1.5 billion people. Beginning in the 1990s, Chinese engineers bought trains and technology from foreign firms such as Japan’s Kawasaki, Germany’s Siemens, the French Alstom, and Bombardier in Canada. They then adapted and reverse-engineered the imported technology until they evolved their own. Since 2003, China has laid more than <a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2015-01/30/c_133959250.htm">16,000km of high-speed track</a> – more than half the world’s total – with <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/sarwantsingh/2014/07/17/china-high-speed-rail-juggernaut-while-most-of-us-stands-by-and-waves-but-not-elon-musk-part-1/">9,000km more planned by 2020</a>. </p>
<p>But this rapid development has come at the cost of human life. First, in 2008, 72 people died when an express train from Beijing to Qingdao derailed. But in July 2011, in eastern Zhejiang province, another high-speed train crash killed 38 and injured 192. Failures in the signalling system caused a derailment of two trains and resulted in four carriages falling off a viaduct. </p>
<p>In a bid to stifle news or comment about this tragedy, officials ordered the burial of the derailed cars. People became reluctant to use the service as public confidence in high-speed rail eroded and China’s reputation in high technology faced international scrutiny. </p>
<h2>Learning from experience</h2>
<p>China claims to have learned from these accidents and now wants to build foreign earnings and influence using its hard-won experience in building the fastest high-speed rail systems in the most challenging conditions. Already Chinese rail builders have been selected to build a high-speed rail line <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/china-watch/technology/11540416/chinas-high-speed-rail-network.html">between Belgrade in Serbia and Budapest in Hungary</a>, as well as a new route to link <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/31/chinese-built-railway-line-cut-nairobi-national-park-kenya">Mombasa and Nairobi in Kenya</a>. There is even a possibility of China’s participation <a href="http://www.theverge.com/2015/9/17/9347723/china-las-vegas-high-speed-rail-los-angeles">in California’s high-speed rail project</a>. </p>
<p>Plus, it is difficult to think of another source which could meet the strict specifications for rail tracks, rolling stock and signalling set out in the plans for HS2 – which bring the total cost <a href="http://www.theweek.co.uk/hs2/55781/hs2-george-osborne-opens-bidding-in-china">to around £50 billion</a>.</p>
<p>Yet there is something which both the UK and China may need to consider as Chinese companies are persuaded to sign up for the HS2 scheme. As we have seen <a href="http://www.europeanfinancialreview.com/?p=2273">in Africa and South America</a>, Chinese businesses seeks to present themselves as scrupulously politically neutral when working overseas. It would be naive in the extreme to imagine that the progress of work on HS2 will not be attended and affected by local demonstrations and occupations. The prospect of middle-class protesters chained to mechanical diggers while dismayed Chinese project managers look on and police seek to clear the way for a very time and cost-sensitive project, is not one Chinese PR managers will want to see on the British tea-time news.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/48620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Synnott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Is the UK chancellor’s new commitment to infrastructure undermined by a reliance on China?Michael Synnott, Senior Teaching Fellow in Strategy and International Business, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/276152014-07-10T05:12:19Z2014-07-10T05:12:19ZCan magnetically levitating trains run at 3,000km/h?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53408/original/7pdb6mgp-1404901292.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Faster than a plane?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China#mediaviewer/File:A_maglev_train_coming_out,_Pudong_International_Airport,_Shanghai.jpg">Alex Needham</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Trains that use magnets to levitate above the tracks might sound like something from Back to the Future, but the concept of magnetic levitation has been around for many years. Maglev trains, which use this technology, were first developed in the 1960s and many different methods have since been developed to free trains from their earthbound wheels, axles and bearings.</p>
<p>Maglev trains sidestep two of the limitations conventional trains have. First, because a wheel typically weighs around a tonne, the wheel pummels away at the rail at high speed, needing regular maintenance to keep the track up to scratch. </p>
<p>Second, trains drive and brake themselves via this mechanical contact and therefore must carry propulsion equipment on board. This is fine at speeds of up to 400km/h (the speed of <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-the-engineering-challenges-of-hs2-20161">proposed Britain’s HS2 line</a>), but aerodynamics makes going much faster very difficult. A lot more power is needed for small increase in vehicle speed. For example, operating at 400km/h instead of 300km/h needs nearly two and half times as much propulsion power, so at very high speeds the propulsion needed becomes impractical.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/PTo-krTSZBA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A 19-mile journey in just a few minutes, all in first-person.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Maglev’s ‘magic’</h2>
<p>All Maglev technologies use some form of magnet – this could be a permanent magnet, an electro-magnet or a magnet using a superconducting coil. The train floats atop this magnetic field and is given support and guidance from the interaction that takes place between the magnet and another element on the ground, such as a steel track, a conducting element in the track or another magnet. Elimination of direct mechanical contact they can reach higher speeds.</p>
<p>Despite the variety of Maglev concepts that are possible, there are two common types. The first is known as the Electro-Magnetic System (EMS), and has an electro-magnet providing the force of attraction to a steel rail. The second is known as the Electro Dynamic System (EDS) which uses a powerful magnet. This interacts with a coil or sheet of aluminium in the track formation. When the magnet moves along the track a force of repulsion is generated, and the vehicle rises a few centimetres above the track, but only when moving at a considerable speed so wheels are still required at low speeds. </p>
<p>Of course driving and braking Maglev vehicles is still necessary – this is also achieved through magnetic effects. To achieve high-speed operation, coils are fitted to the track and these are used to create a travelling magnetic field which essentially drags the vehicles along by their magnets. Therefore it is no longer necessary to carry the heavy power equipment on the trains: instead the equipment is fitted to the track, making the trains lighter and able to travel significantly faster.</p>
<p>The Shanghai EMS Maglev Train operates regularly at 430 km/h, and in Japan JR Central’s prototype EDS Maglev system can run at more than 500 km/h. There are Maglev technologies that can push speeds up to around 600 km/h.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53444/original/bdxr8h57-1404920986.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53444/original/bdxr8h57-1404920986.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53444/original/bdxr8h57-1404920986.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53444/original/bdxr8h57-1404920986.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53444/original/bdxr8h57-1404920986.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53444/original/bdxr8h57-1404920986.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53444/original/bdxr8h57-1404920986.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53444/original/bdxr8h57-1404920986.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The sleek MLX01 is one of Japan’s latest Maglev designs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/62942199@N08/11030974424/in/photolist-hNLCod-hNM8pt-hNLo9y">Takashi H</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Interestingly, in the 1960s there was a general belief that 200-250km/h was the limit for conventional trains, but now we have regular service at over 300km/h, and 400km/h is entirely feasible. The mechanical contact between the wheels and the track remains, but it is also possible for the Maglev-style propulsion system to be used for normal trains, even though they don’t have the magnets. </p>
<h2>Costly reality</h2>
<p>The reality of getting trains up to speeds over 1000km/h is not as simple as the theory. Even Maglev trains have to contend with aerodynamics. This is why the higher speeds that have been postulated by the American entrepreneur Elon Musk in his concept <a href="https://theconversation.com/hyperloop-and-the-future-of-ground-transport-17020">Hyperloop</a> (1500km/h) and the <a href="http://gizmodo.com/chinas-maglev-train-prototype-could-reach-speeds-of-1-8-1574030943">Chinese “Super Maglev”</a> (2,900km/h) propose running in a partially evacuated tube to reduce the forces going against them. Such high speeds therefore depend upon the ability to construct and maintain a very accurately aligned guideway, within a low pressure tube over hundreds of kilometres. This is where it becomes really difficult, and very costly. </p>
<p>And yet some of these high-tech propositions make bold claims about cost. In reality transportation providers would be enormously excited by the prospect of reducing the system costs by 30% or 50%, but often the proponents of new concepts suggest much larger savings. For example, Musk suggests a 90% reduction in cost compared with a high-speed rail system, despite the sophisticated infrastructure that would be required. Unfortunately this takes the idea from being exciting to being unbelievable and may well be a case of Back to the Future.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Update: This article was corrected to reflect that air resistance at higher speeds has greater impact than mechanical contact between the rails and the track. The text was modified to remove the incorrect term “exponentially” when explaining how much extra power is needed for increasing speed.</em></p>
<p><em>Next, read this: <a href="https://theconversation.com/hyperloop-and-the-future-of-ground-transport-17020">Is Hyperloop the future of ground transport?</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/27615/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Goodall receives funding from EPSRC. He is affiliated with a variety of professional engineering institutions: Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Institution of Engineering and Technology, Royal Academy of Engineering.</span></em></p>Trains that use magnets to levitate above the tracks might sound like something from Back to the Future, but the concept of magnetic levitation has been around for many years. Maglev trains, which use…Roger Goodall, Professor of Control Systems Engineering, Loughborough UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/285372014-06-30T04:53:05Z2014-06-30T04:53:05ZBuilding a second supercity starts with better transport<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52491/original/z3rdqct8-1403884943.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Manchester, could be part of a new megacity in the north.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Manchester_from_the_Sky,_2008.jpg">Daniel Nisbet</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The UK’s economy is highly unbalanced; we have the <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/britains-spatially-unbalanced-economy/">worst regional disparities</a> in the developed world and London’s property prices are also the world’s most expensive – <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jun/05/house-prices-growth-halifax">second only to Monaco</a>. Rebalancing the economy is crucial to our future, and it can be done. </p>
<p>With the right investment in transport infrastructure, a second megacity formed by linking Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds, is achievable and could rebalance the UK economy by shifting focus from the dominating south-east.</p>
<p>This could be achieved by creating an economic powerhouse in the north, one that replicates the very factors that underpin London’s growth: a large and diverse population and economic base, the ability to attract and retain talent, a critical mass of smart professionals and super-creatives, excellent science institutions, universities and schools, vibrant arts and culture and a first class regional, national and international transport.</p>
<p>It’s a tall order. Even the best of the Britain’s second-tier cities would struggle to deliver all this. None of them is big enough – and we know that in modern economies size does matter. Geoffrey West, a physicist at the Santa Fe Institute, has <a href="http://www.ted.com/talks/geoffrey_west_the_surprising_math_of_cities_and_corporations">analysed the mathematics of cities</a> and says that there is a rule that holds firm in cities across the world. </p>
<p>According to West, each doubling in size of a city brings with it a 15-20% increase in wages, number of patents filed, the number of highly creative people employed, and an increase in efficiency of transport systems, among others. At the same time there is a matching increase in crime and pollution – but the benefits of higher wages and greater opportunities outweigh these disadvantages.</p>
<h2>Can transport drive the north forward?</h2>
<p>London reflects this urban mathematics. Outside the Greater London region there is perhaps only one place in the UK where these economies of scale could be replicated: in the heavily urbanised east-west belt that stretches from Liverpool, through Manchester and over the Pennines to Leeds. These three city regions have scale, dignity and presence. They also have a massive asset in Manchester International Airport. Their universities are among the country’s <a href="http://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings/?g=Russell+Group">leading research institutions</a> and decent housing is affordable – especially for the young professional families now being priced out of London’s housing market or forced to accept crippling commuting and mortgage costs. </p>
<p>Manchester and Leeds are dynamic cities with a strong track record in delivering new jobs. Until recently, Liverpool’s record on jobs was <a href="http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/unemployment-up-december-down-2013-6537777">shaky</a>. But it has made a startling recovery based on tourism and conferences, as well as its traditional sectors.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52483/original/yt49m8q6-1403880008.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52483/original/yt49m8q6-1403880008.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52483/original/yt49m8q6-1403880008.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52483/original/yt49m8q6-1403880008.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52483/original/yt49m8q6-1403880008.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=646&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52483/original/yt49m8q6-1403880008.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=646&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52483/original/yt49m8q6-1403880008.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=646&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Civic Quarter in Leeds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/34255412@N06/5632290018">Jason Charlesworth/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
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<p>Higher speed rail connections between Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds (and perhaps Sheffield) could reduce the Liverpool-Leeds journey time to only 50 minutes, bringing together the cities’ labour markets, generating critical mass and driving the creation of <a href="https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch2en/conc2en/agglomerationeconomies.html">agglomeration economies</a> from bringing the cities closer together.</p>
<p>David Higgins, chairman of HS2, drew attention to this issue <a href="http://assets.hs2.org.uk/sites/default/files/inserts/Higgins%20Report%20Launch%20speech.pdf">in a recent speech</a> – as did chancellor of the exchequer George Osborne <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27969885">this week</a>. </p>
<h2>The plan exists, but little action yet</h2>
<p>Peter Hall, David Thrower and I set out detailed proposals for “<a href="http://www.liv.ac.uk/media/livacuk/publicpolicypractice/TCPA,WRAY,High,Speed,North.pdf">High Speed North</a>” in April 2014, building on the extremely modest <a href="http://www.networkrail.co.uk/improvements/northern-hub/">Northern Hub</a> investment and electrification between Liverpool and Leeds which is already committed or in progress. </p>
<p>These began with the introduction of the Pendolino “<a href="http://www.railway-technology.com/projects/tilting/">tilting trains</a>”, required to cope with the steep gradients and sharp curves on the <a href="http://www.sharethecity.org/liverpool-paris-rail-group/high-speed-rail-route/">trans-Pennine route</a>. It also included a reintroduction of four-tracking – a railway dual carriageway, with two tracks travelling in each direction – to provide greater capacity and allow fast trains to overtake slower services. The proposals also called for local trains in Manchester to be rerouted onto new sections of the Metrolink tram system. </p>
<p>For later stages of the project, we proposed a new 20-mile route from Warrington to Liverpool, which would become part of the High Speed North network and a vital high speed connection from HS2 to the centre of Liverpool, increasing capacity on an increasingly busy passenger and freight route. And finally, a new 13-mile “base tunnel” under the Pennines from Manchester to Huddersfield – startling as it may sound, new rail tunnels are not uncommon in other countries such as Germany. </p>
<p>The evidence we have seen on comparable tunnels suggests a range of construction costs between £1.5 and £4 billion. London’s Crossrail, which is of similar length, <a href="http://www.building.co.uk/Journals/2014/02/07/v/t/h/Crossrail-2-report.pdf">has cost £16 billion</a>.</p>
<p>The chancellor’s Manchester speech this week did bear an uncanny resemblance to our earlier ideas. Was it plagiarism, thought leadership or just a bizarre coincidence? We don’t know and we don’t mind. For once, the government is running with a big, imaginative and relatively inexpensive idea. </p>
<p>To be sure other things need to happen in these northern cities. But the Chancellor’s proposal should be explored further, not dismissed as another bright idea that will end up in a cupboard after the next general election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Wray is a Trustee of the Town and Country Planning Association, a member of the Royal Town PIanning Institute General Assembly, and a Visiting Professor and Visiting Fellow at Liverpool University.</span></em></p>The UK’s economy is highly unbalanced; we have the worst regional disparities in the developed world and London’s property prices are also the world’s most expensive – second only to Monaco. Rebalancing…Ian Wray, Visiting Professor in Geography and Planning, and Visiting Fellow, Heseltine institute for Public Policy and Practice, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/284182014-06-25T05:06:56Z2014-06-25T05:06:56ZWithout HS3, all railroads lead to London – and a lopsided nation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52074/original/hrjpv7mm-1403611779.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">They may unbalance your economy.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/30890318@N06/3340311239">Paul</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>George Osborne’s <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27969885">proposal</a> for a high speed rail line across the north of England makes a lot of sense. It will come far too late to resolve our present economic worries, but better train links are crucial to correct the UK’s great economic imbalance.</p>
<p>Such an idea has been around for a while. When plans for high speed rail throughout the UK were first being talked of, extending the London-Birmingham-Manchester line on to Leeds was one of the options under consideration. However, that would have meant a longer Leeds-London journey and Sheffield and Nottingham would have missed out on what became HS2. </p>
<p>So a choice was made favouring a Y-shaped network centred on Birmingham, with a direct link from there to Leeds. Now Osborne has resurrected the idea of a Manchester-Leeds high speed link and has dubbed it HS3. </p>
<p>There is a strong political motive behind the Chancellor’s announcement and the accompanying rhetoric, with George Osborne describing the aim of HS3 to create a “northern global powerhouse” to rival that of London. </p>
<p>The cities of northern England are individually very strong, but they are collectively not powerful enough to compete vigorously against the mega-cities that have emerged globally during the past few decades. This is important because, in the current economic context, city size matters a great deal. One broad manifestation of this is that the largest 600 cities across the world contain 20% of global population but are responsible for as much as <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/urban_world">60% of global GDP</a>. </p>
<p>The unbalanced economic recovery concentrated on London and the south-east is a major problem for the government. This reflects the fact that London has one of the greatest networks of public transport services anywhere in the world. It sits at the centre of a massive system of commuter services, and benefits from an extensive network of intercity rail, all operated at high frequencies, on radial routes in and out of its main rail stations. London is well linked to the entire country. Even Shropshire, which used to lay claim to being the only county in England without a direct rail service to London, recently saw its direct service resumed. </p>
<p>The sheer scale of transport links in, out and around London means in turn that public spending per capita on transport infrastructure is much higher there than in other parts of the country. The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) North analysed public spending on transport in the government’s National Infrastructure Plan and found that 84% of it benefited <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-16235349">only London and the south east</a>. Transport spending per head is far greater in London and the south-east than in other parts of the country. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52075/original/fbrw37t8-1403612303.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52075/original/fbrw37t8-1403612303.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/52075/original/fbrw37t8-1403612303.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52075/original/fbrw37t8-1403612303.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52075/original/fbrw37t8-1403612303.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52075/original/fbrw37t8-1403612303.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52075/original/fbrw37t8-1403612303.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/52075/original/fbrw37t8-1403612303.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=675&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-16235349">IPPR/BBC</a></span>
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<p>This is partly down to basic microeconomics. Transport projects are subject to a cost-benefit analysis before they get the go-ahead, and these tend to be skewed heavily in favour of areas with the highest population density as they provide the “easy wins”.</p>
<p>This process reinforces itself. Major investments in Crossrail and Thameslink will improve London’s transport infrastructure, enabling the city to take on more people. As the population density increases, so will its need for further transport options, and so on. Any attempt to re-balance the nation’s economic geography must take take these broader external effects into account.</p>
<p>At this stage it is not at all clear what HS3 would require in terms of infrastructure investment. But upgrades to existing lines, such as those used by the current TransPennine Express, should help save costs as fewer new tunnels will be needed. The line is scheduled for electrification anyway and so spending on HS3 should be looked upon in incremental terms.</p>
<p>Re-balancing the economy is a major long-term undertaking and we shouldn’t expect rail lines to fix things overnight, however fast they are. But while investments in HS2 and HS3 may not by themselves solve problems that have built up over past decades, both could represent big steps in the right direction. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pat Hanlon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>George Osborne’s proposal for a high speed rail line across the north of England makes a lot of sense. It will come far too late to resolve our present economic worries, but better train links are crucial…Pat Hanlon, Senior Lecturer in Transport Economics, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/255972014-04-21T20:07:26Z2014-04-21T20:07:26ZWith a bullet: China’s high-speed rail dream begins to take flight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46625/original/b7mw63pm-1397709559.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C668%2C501&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">High-speed trains, such as this one on the Hangzhou-Shanghai route, will soon link China's entire urban spine from Beijing to Hong Kong.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Hale</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As a young university student, I first visited Guangzhou during the mid-1990s and found it a gloomy and unsettling place. The third world, undoubtedly.</p>
<p>When I went back again in 2010, it was transformed. The city now had a gleaming new metro system, masses of new buildings had sprung up, and the “old city”, while still full of character, had been substantially tidied up. Here was living proof of the media mantra that “China is changing”.</p>
<p>My trips to China in 2010 and 2011 were largely about gauging the progress of metro rail development and city planning. But what left the greatest impression was the profound power of China’s growing inter-city rail network.</p>
<p>Travelling from my base in Shanghai to cities like Hangzhou and Suzhou, I was swept dramatically along elevated corridors at 360 km per hour.</p>
<h2>China’s plan for joined-up rail</h2>
<p>China has been pursuing high-speed rail development as a series of hub-and-spoke “clusters” centred on Beijing in the north, Shanghai in the east, and Guangdong province (of which Guangzhou is the capital) in the south.</p>
<p>In Shanghai’s case, this now means the city has rail links to China’s other eastern metropolises: Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou. Previously regarded as separate and distinct cities in their own right, they are now being integrated so that people can work, live and trade on a daily basis between them.</p>
<p>This is urban development on a scale so big that the English language doesn’t even have a word for it. Given that Shanghai is already a “megalopolis” in its own right, what do we call it when Shanghai merges with three more cities of 10 million residents each? Are these huge cities now “suburbs” of Shanghai, despite being the size of Paris or New York?</p>
<p>It’s even more amazing when you consider that the same thing is happening elsewhere in China too. In 2011 I was taken to view the construction of Shenzhen North station, in Guangdong province, not far from Hong Kong.</p>
<p>The builders spoke then of Shenzhen North as the hub of a high-speed rail cluster that would eventually extend throughout Guangdong province as well as to Kowloon in Hong Kong. What’s more, it would also have rail links heading north to Shanghai and eventually all the way to Beijing.</p>
<p>The concept seemed too futuristic to contemplate, but the massive bulk of the Shenzhen North project, and the startling progress seen around Shanghai, rendered it plausible.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46493/original/5265j4q3-1397602582.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46493/original/5265j4q3-1397602582.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46493/original/5265j4q3-1397602582.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46493/original/5265j4q3-1397602582.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46493/original/5265j4q3-1397602582.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46493/original/5265j4q3-1397602582.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46493/original/5265j4q3-1397602582.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46493/original/5265j4q3-1397602582.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Shenzhen North Station under construction in 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Hale, 2011</span></span>
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<p>Shenzhen North station has now opened, along with similar mega-sized rail terminals in many major Chinese cities. Guangzhou and Shenzhen, 120km apart, are now linked by a 30-minute train ride. </p>
<p>Within just a few years, China’s 2400 km north-south spine will be linked by a giant rail network, with Hong Kong at one end, Beijing at the other, and hundreds of millions of people in between.</p>
<h2>A new lifestyle</h2>
<p>The Chinese people are getting to grips with high-speed travel as a lifestyle opportunity. Rumour suggests that ticket prices are being kept artificially low, and this seems plausible given that they seem dirt-cheap – the fare from Shenzhen to Guangzhou is equivalent to A$7.</p>
<p>This means that brand-new facilities such as Shenzhen North are already overwhelmed with passenger demand, and my experience would suggest one or two teething troubles. Neglecting to buy a return ticket (as I did on a trip last month) can be a major mistake.</p>
<p>Shenzhen North seems only to have about two dozen operational ticket counters. My 50-minute queue in the wrong line (for ticket pickup, not purchase) was followed by a 30-minute wait to use a ticket machine, which despite having an English-language option barred me for not having a Chinese ID card. Finally, after another hour waiting in another queue, I had my ticket in hand. (Granted, much of this may have been down to being an ignorant foreigner, although my protestations to that effect didn’t really work.)</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46495/original/b33d48dd-1397602818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46495/original/b33d48dd-1397602818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46495/original/b33d48dd-1397602818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46495/original/b33d48dd-1397602818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46495/original/b33d48dd-1397602818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46495/original/b33d48dd-1397602818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46495/original/b33d48dd-1397602818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46495/original/b33d48dd-1397602818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The joys of high speed travel: a ticket queue at Shenzhen North Station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Hale, 2014</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ticketing gripes aside, Shenzhen North is a massive and gleaming testament to China’s high-speed rail dream. It is seemingly built to accommodate many hundreds of thousands of passengers at a time, so clearly the immense popularity was anticipated, even if the ticketing system hasn’t quite caught on yet.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46497/original/t37d6hdp-1397603011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46497/original/t37d6hdp-1397603011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/46497/original/t37d6hdp-1397603011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46497/original/t37d6hdp-1397603011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46497/original/t37d6hdp-1397603011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46497/original/t37d6hdp-1397603011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46497/original/t37d6hdp-1397603011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/46497/original/t37d6hdp-1397603011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The vast interior of Shenzhen North may be a contemporary architectural touchstone in the making: part airport, stadium, shopping centre and train station.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Chris Hale, 2014</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The transport revolution</h2>
<p>China’s roll-out of high-speed rail is set to usher in one of the most profound changes to travel patterns in human history. For those astonished by the pace of Chinese development over the past two decades, the coming decade will see even faster change, as most of the country becomes integrated through convenient rail travel.</p>
<p>China is not the first to embrace rail. But what Europe and Japan accomplished over 40 years, China has effectively quadrupled in little more than a decade.</p>
<p>What are the implications for Australia and the United States – large countries dominated by cars, trucks and planes, which could benefit from high-speed rail but have so far viewed it as too expensive?</p>
<p>China’s experience could potentially democratise the technology, making it more viable to build high-speed rail links in eastern Australia or across North America. </p>
<p>Perhaps the Chinese rail program will do for fast ground travel what the US space project did for satellite communications.</p>
<p>One thing is for certain - they’ll be selling lots of tickets at Chinese train stations. The queues are testament to that. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/25597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Hale is an infrastructure consultant and contractor.
His site investigations in Southern China have been supported on an in-kind basis by the MTR Corporation of Hong Kong.</span></em></p>As a young university student, I first visited Guangzhou during the mid-1990s and found it a gloomy and unsettling place. The third world, undoubtedly. When I went back again in 2010, it was transformed…Chris Hale, Lecturer, Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/226572014-04-07T05:12:57Z2014-04-07T05:12:57ZHigh speed rail could bankrupt Laos, but it’ll keep China happy<p>Despite impressive economic growth rates over the last decade, a third of Laos’s population still lives <a href="http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/rwss/docs/2010/chapter2.pdf">below the extreme poverty line</a> of US$1.25 per day. Most of the extreme poor Laos are ethnic minorities living in rural and upland districts, who depend on local ecological resources for cash income and food.</p>
<p>Expanding transport infrastructure can no doubt be very important for effective poverty reduction – but it would be a stretch to argue that the country’s most urgent human and social development need is a high-speed rail connection between its capital, Vientiane, and its northern neighbour China.</p>
<p>Yet, the Lao government has reiterated its intention to integrate into an emerging ASEAN-China high-speed railway grid. At times, the country’s quest for rail takes on an almost fetishistic quality, with officials simply repeating the mantra that the Laos must move “from land-locked to land-linked”. But for all their zeal, the economic case for high speed rail in Laos remains weak.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45324/original/cfkdjkzg-1396366463.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45324/original/cfkdjkzg-1396366463.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45324/original/cfkdjkzg-1396366463.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=645&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45324/original/cfkdjkzg-1396366463.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=645&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45324/original/cfkdjkzg-1396366463.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=645&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45324/original/cfkdjkzg-1396366463.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45324/original/cfkdjkzg-1396366463.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45324/original/cfkdjkzg-1396366463.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=811&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CIA World Factbook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Two projects</h2>
<p>Laos actually has two high-speed railway projects under consideration. The first and more expensive one, costing about US$7 billion, would form part of an integrated <a href="http://www.railwaybulletin.com/2013/09/china-railway-commissioned-the-first-section-of-kunming-singapore-line">Kunming-Bangkok-Singapore railway</a>. Extending 420km north from Vientiane, it must cross mountainous terrain and numerous river valleys in northern Laos. </p>
<p>This is a gargantuan undertaking for a country that’s GDP was <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/country/lao-pdr">US$9.4 billion</a> in 2012. Nevertheless, the Laos National Assembly <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052970203897404578076193521305574">approved the Laos-China rail project</a> in October 2012, proposing a US$6.8 billion loan from China’s Exim Bank to cover its cost. According to a 22-page document submitted to the National Assembly, the loan would be guaranteed by all of the income and assets of the railway, and two unspecified mining areas.</p>
<p>There is also a geopolitical angle. The potential for strategic and military applications of high-speed rail projects has been noted, and some argue that China is working to push an Asian rail network to <a href="http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/blog/internal-state-building-and-external-diplomacy-high-speed-rail-china">extend its power and influence</a> throughout the region. </p>
<p>Laos’s <a href="http://www.rfa.org/english/news/laos/railway-01032014153336.html">second line</a> would run 220km east-west through central Savannakhet province. It is still quite unclear how this line would be connected to any supporting rail infrastructure in either Thailand or Vietnam. At present, it represents a rather ambitious commercial venture to link the languid provincial town of Savannakhet with the small border village of Lao Bao, at a proposed cost to the previously unknown Malaysian firm <a href="http://www.mida.gov.my/env3/index.php?mact=News,cntnt01,detail,0&cntnt01articleid=1862&cntnt01origid=144&cntnt01returnid=107">Giant Consolidated Ltd</a> of some US$5 billion.</p>
<p>The financier of the Savannakhet railway project is reported to be an entity named “Rich Ban-Corp Ltd”, <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2013/04/laos-approved-for-u-s-5-billion-loan-for-rail-project/">initially reported</a> as “Rich Banco” and based in New Zealand, but now apparently registered in Hong Kong. In the UK, Rich Ban-Corp has been <a href="http://www.fsa.gov.uk/static/pages/doing/regulated/law/pdf/rich-ban-corp-limited.pdf">listed</a> as an “unauthorised firm”, and investors are warned not to do business with it.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45523/original/dwn953nw-1396514768.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/45523/original/dwn953nw-1396514768.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45523/original/dwn953nw-1396514768.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45523/original/dwn953nw-1396514768.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45523/original/dwn953nw-1396514768.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45523/original/dwn953nw-1396514768.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/45523/original/dwn953nw-1396514768.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The last remaining train engine from Laos’ French Colonial period. Time for an upgrade?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/whltravel/3942399414">...your local connection</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These expensive new railway project proposals have drawn the attention of Laos’ development partners. In October 2013 the <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/dsa/pdf/2013/dsacr13369.pdf">IMF warned</a> that the Lao-China railway would result in Laos’ total external debt leaping from its current level of 32.5% of GDP to as high as 125% of GDP.</p>
<p>According to the IMF, this would exceed Laos’ threshold debt levels. The country could suddenly be very vulnerable if, for example, China experienced a credit crisis, or if prices for Laos’ key export commodities such as copper took a sustained downturn. </p>
<h2>Mega-preneurs</h2>
<p>Given the high stakes – the price tags, the resource-based loan guarantees, the implications for national sovereignty – one might expect the case for the railways to be spelled out. However it is not at all clear what sort of analysis is guiding Lao decision makers.</p>
<p>The pros and cons of rail projects should be assessed through detailed economic calculations. This could mean examining the potential to actually promote resource exports, the boost to economic productivity through measures such as the “value of time travel saved”, or the effect on the labour market of integrating second tier cities with the main urban centers. Estimated benefits for tourism revenue could be quantified. </p>
<p>In Laos, this sort of analysis is, so far, completely missing. Instead, a significant part of the Lao railway megaproject game seems to involve efforts by “megaproject entrepreneurs” to convince powerful decision makers and state institutions that their investment plan has momentum, with deep pocketed (yet conveniently obscure) financial backers waiting in the wings. </p>
<p>Laos is particularly susceptible to these sort of opaque dealings through personalised networks. Its state institutions are still a work in progress, and are unable or unwilling to foster a culture of transparency in decision making. The authoritarian nature of the party-state in Laos discourages critical debate or an open competition of ideas. </p>
<p>Perhaps there are defensible economic justifications for high-speed rail in Laos. The boost to regional integration and Laos’ agricultural and mineral exports such as potash, copper, and gold could be significant, although it is not clear why expensive high speed infrastructure would be required for exporting these resources. Moody’s rating agency seems to accept the positive arguments anyway, indicating the Lao-China railway project will be “<a href="http://www.mt5.com/forex_news/quickview/1321836-_moodys:_laos-china_rail_link_will_be_credit-positive_for_laos/">credit positive</a>” for the country.</p>
<p>But what of the opportunity cost? Even if there were a solid business case for high speed rail, it would still need to be considered alongside the potential national economic benefits of investing that US$7 billion across a range of key development sectors, from highway upgrades, to child malnutrition, maternal health, agricultural extension, and youth education and training programmes. </p>
<p>It is time for Laos’s government to open up and provided some transparency on how these key decisions around high speed rail are going to being made, through what information and data. The country may be about to commit a significant portion of its wealth to these projects; its citizens deserve to know they are getting a good deal, and aren’t being used as a pawn by other nations and their corporate interests.</p>
<p>Moving away from back room wheeling-dealing and towards fuller transparency and the rule of law could help build confidence in Laos’ institutions and governance standards. It would also help future, quality investment projects achieve their full potential for promoting equitable economic growth and reducing poverty.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/22657/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Barney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite impressive economic growth rates over the last decade, a third of Laos’s population still lives below the extreme poverty line of US$1.25 per day. Most of the extreme poor Laos are ethnic minorities…Keith Barney, Lecturer: Resources, Environment, and Development Group , Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/248222014-03-27T06:11:15Z2014-03-27T06:11:15ZHS2 must be one of many new transport links to benefit regions<p>The HS2 project survives. Despite ferocious attacks, the initial High Speed Rail (Preparation) Act 2013 was passed in November and the <a href="http://www.hs2.org.uk/developing-hs2/hybrid-bill">Hybrid Bill</a> – where the real arguments are debated – is now going through the UK Parliament.</p>
<p>The key questions are about connectivity, how HS2 will link up the cities and towns of Britain, bringing them closer together. The confirmation that there will be <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26717518">no link to the Eurostar line</a> is insignificant compared to the importance of linking up the towns, cities and regions of Britain.</p>
<p>The main issue with HS2 is that though these trains will slash times from London Euston to Birmingham Curzon Street and Manchester Piccadilly, passengers will be left on the platform at these destinations with few onward options. Until now, virtually no thought has been given to the final destinations where people want to go to, or how they’ll get there. Curzon Street Station, for example, is several hundred metres from the connecting trains at New Street Station, where <a href="http://www.birminghampost.co.uk/business/curzon-street-station-transformed-massive-6750166">a £500 million rebuild</a> is taking place – yet, amazingly, there’s no plan for getting the customers from one to the other.</p>
<h2>Linking the core and periphery</h2>
<p>Belatedly, HS2’s planners have recognised that a key argument for the new railway is its <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hs2-will-drive-urban-regeneration">potential to trigger urban regeneration</a> – but that regeneration is likely to be limited to a small circle around the new stations. But the places most in need of regeneration are not the great core cities like Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. It’s the scores of industrial towns in the regions around them which have lost their old economic base and are struggling to find a new one. </p>
<p>Only in the past few months have civic leaders woken up to this fact. As a result, a <a href="http://www.synaptic-cluster.eu/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Irrigating-the-region_PHall-C-LChen_Supporting-Article_TCP-0413.pdf">split is developing</a> between the core cities and other places such as Wakefield, Bradford, Burnley and Blackburn. There’s a risk that these secondary and tertiary towns and cities might even be worse connected to the rest of the country than they are now if left out of the HS2 project.</p>
<p>This problem can be solved through a three-pronged attack. First, it’s essential that tram and bus rapid transit systems are created to link the HS2 stations to surrounding areas. Manchester, which is completing a 60-mile tram network, provides the model.</p>
<p>Second, the local and cross country rail networks that link the wider regions need to be electrified and upgraded, and these networks need to be seamlessly connected to the HS2 hubs. This is not an easy job in Birmingham and Leeds because of the way the stations’ tracks are configured, but it can be done.</p>
<p>Third, and most critically, the HS2 trains need to provide onward connections to these networks, providing a direct service to London not just from the terminus at Birmingham, Leeds, or Manchester, but from Bolton, or Solihull, or Bradford – from the wider range of towns that fill the hinterland around great cities. The model here is France, where old industrial towns in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hs2-alone-wont-address-the-north-south-divide-15539">Nord-Pas-de-Calais</a> region enjoy direct trains to Paris. </p>
<p>Finally, equal attention needs to be given to links at the London end. The key interchange at Old Oak Common in West London, where it will meet Crossrail trains heading into the West End and the financial centre of the City, needs redesigning along Dutch lines with direct, cross-platform interchanges. And as Boris Johnson <a href="http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/huge-support-for-boris-johnsons-12bn-crossrail-2-scheme-for-london-8972735.html">has stressed</a>, Euston cannot accommodate the extra traffic without investment, notably in a second Crossrail line. All this will cost money, but without it, HS2 will simply not do the job it was intended for.</p>
<h2>Who’s listening?</h2>
<p>Remarkably, HS2’s new boss Sir David Higgins has fully bought into these arguments. Fifteen days into the job, he <a href="http://www.hs2.org.uk/david-higgins-launches-his-vision-for-hs2">launched the project’s rethink</a> in the northern capital of Manchester, pointing out the “poor connectivity” in the North, “not just to London, but also east to west between Liverpool and Manchester, Manchester and Leeds, Leeds and Hull. Those challenges have direct consequences, not just for the economy as a whole, but for people’s daily experience and aspirations.”“</p>
<p>Perhaps he’s thinking even further: as well as linking HS2 into local rail network, he sees the need for radically <a href="https://theconversation.com/hs2-vital-for-the-north-or-just-a-quick-escape-route-20047">improved service on that west-east Trans-Pennine corridor</a> in the North of England. Call it HS1.5. It could and should become an early priority if we want to see HS2 flourish.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Hall has received funding from the EU for a research project called SYNAPTIC that promoted better connectivity in northwest England.</span></em></p>The HS2 project survives. Despite ferocious attacks, the initial High Speed Rail (Preparation) Act 2013 was passed in November and the Hybrid Bill – where the real arguments are debated – is now going…Peter Hall, Professor of Planning and Regeneration at the Bartlett School of Planning, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/216872013-12-23T14:58:00Z2013-12-23T14:58:00ZWith planning, high speed rail could reduce flight demand<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/38398/original/d8tyv7yq-1387803926.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One out, one in: better high speed rail services could dampen flight demand.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gareth Fuller/PA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The expansion of UK airports could mean breaching climate targets, Climate Change Committee head David Kennedy <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/22/heathrow-airport-runway-expansion-report">has said</a>. Ahead of a full report next summer that would examine the airport expansion plans, the committee chief explained the climate target to reduce carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 already accounted for a 60% growth in demand for flights. But if a second additional runway was added beyond that already in discussion for Heathrow or Gatwick, and if demand is not capped by suggested price increases of up to £200, that target would be missed.</p>
<p>A glance at the <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/05/daily-chart-8">top ten busiest air routes</a> in the world reveals that all but one are domestic flights. Over the last 20 years short haul air travel has become the norm. But this has undoubtedly come at a price: airport capacity is stretched, rising fuel prices strain airlines that are fighting to remain competitive, and the environmental impact of so many more planes in the sky is growing ever more severe, with few technological solutions available to reduce them.</p>
<p>At the same time, high speed rail – the only mode of transport able to compete with air travel times – is growing in popularity. There are now over <a href="http://www.uic.org/spip.php?article573">21,000km of high speed lines</a> across the world, with a further 30,000km either under construction or in planning. So it seems there is a simple solution to reducing the negative impacts of aviation: shift passengers from short flights to trains. This may seem unlikely but it could be this simple with the use of air-rail partnerships.</p>
<h2>Rail roll out</h2>
<p>A handful of airlines such as <a href="http://www.lufthansa.com/uk/en/AIRail-just-like-flying">Lufthansa</a> have used air-rail partnerships for years, but they could be used so much more. The idea is not complicated. Certain carriages on high-speed trains are reserved for passengers travelling with an airline. Passengers still buy their tickets in the same way and can check-in at their starting station. This allows airlines to reduce fuel costs and environmental damage, capacity is freed-up at airports, and rail operators benefit from extra demand for their services.</p>
<p>An example of this potential can be seen in the UK. Currently plans for a new high speed line connecting London with the north of England are in the final consultation stages. While there’s been <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/hs2-rail-survey-opposition-high-speed-2-526494">significant opposition to the scheme</a>, the government has defended the decision by emphasising the railway’s <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/road-and-rail-transport/10513796/Cameron-HS2-opponents-should-see-bigger-picture.html">economic benefits</a>. But the potential for air-rail partnerships to reduce flight demand has not been included in the debate.</p>
<p>Air-rail partnerships are likely to be successful in the UK as a large number of passengers use domestic flights to transfer to long haul flights, particularly at London Heathrow. A prime example is the very short flight that exists between <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2012/jun/27/yorkshire-heathrow-flights-restored">London Heathrow and Leeds Bradford</a>. Even though it would be quicker to use the high speed line, passengers using this flight to connect to others at Heathrow are unlikely to shift to high speed trains. Their ticket price is only fractionally increased by flying, and airlines use this as a way to capture long haul passengers. By using air-rail partnerships, the airline still retains this link and ensures passengers move to high speed rail, but under their control and buying their tickets. </p>
<p>Airports also benefit from these partnerships, freeing runway capacity but with passengers still using the airport and its services to connect to other flights. In the case of Heathrow, for example, 19% of the estimated 23% of total airport traffic that would be carried by a new runway could instead be <a href="http://www.bettertransport.org.uk/files/pdfs/Fog_on_the_Runway.pdf">handled by high speed rail</a>, according to a Transport 2000 report.</p>
<h2>Global potential</h2>
<p>Worldwide, similar benefits could be seen on many flights between city pairs. Some of the busiest air routes show considerable potential for air-rail partnerships. A prime example is the Sao Paulo–Rio de Janeiro route in Brazil. Here journey times on high speed rail would be faster than air travel, with a potential for huge carbon savings of <a href="http://tsh.leeds.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/holly-edwards-wrf-oral-presentation-manuscript.pdf">between 75% and 97%</a> depending on future aircraft efficiencies and travel demand.</p>
<p>But it is not a mechanism that can work on all routes. For example, a high speed rail route between Mumbai and New Delhi would not achieve competitive travel times, and a shift in passengers from flights could actually result in a <a href="http://tsh.leeds.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/holly-edwards-wrf-oral-presentation-manuscript.pdf">320% increase in carbon emissions</a>. The reason for this is that high speed trains are powered by the electricity grid – unlike Brazil’s largely hydroelectric-powered grid, India’s electricity demands are overwhelmingly met by coal-fired power stations. While India may improve the carbon intensity of its electricity generating networks in the future, it would have to be very significant.</p>
<p>So co-operative air-rail partnerships and greater deployment of high speed rail networks show great potential in reducing the environmental impacts of aviation, lowering airlines’ fuel costs, and releasing airport capacity in many cases. But to work most effectively the schemes need to be integrated into the planning process of new high speed rail routes from the outset. This requires airlines, rail operators and governments to realise the potential, and for the relationship to become one of collaboration rather than just competition.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/21687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Holly Edwards receives funding from EPSRC.</span></em></p>The expansion of UK airports could mean breaching climate targets, Climate Change Committee head David Kennedy has said. Ahead of a full report next summer that would examine the airport expansion plans…Holly Edwards, PhD researcher, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/201682013-11-22T06:13:44Z2013-11-22T06:13:44ZHS2: how will it affect my town?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/35422/original/rrq4srh9-1384706114.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The world, north of the M25.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">HS2</span></span></figcaption></figure><h4>Professor Peter Mackie</h4>
<h4>Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds</h4>
<p>Leeds and its metropolitan region should be one of the big winners from HS2. Financial and legal services, engineering consultancy and higher education are all strong sectors in the city, and these can benefit from an improved connection to London – and to the world via Heathrow.</p>
<p>Halving the journey time should make a difference to Leeds’ knowledge economy, which would allow the expansion of national firms’ regional offices. HS2 should be seen as one piece in the competitiveness jigsaw, with a qualified labour pool, the region’s cultural and natural assets, education and housing quality, regional infrastructure, and the league position of Leeds United being others. Leeds currently scores well on all these except the last.</p>
<p>There’s plentiful land to grow the city centre south of the river Aire, and it’s to be hoped that the HS2 station would be a signature building since the architectural quality of the city’s 21st century developments could do with a lift. The aspiration must be to attract national head offices and Government departments. In this market, the journey time and reliability down to the brass plate functions in London, and the way travel meshes with other forms of communication in 20 years time will be key. </p>
<p>One worry is whether parts of Leeds become an offshore island of the South East, leaving other parts of West Yorkshire behind. Regional politicians and the <a href="http://www.leedscityregion.gov.uk/about/lep/">local enterprise partnership</a> have much to do to ensure the benefits are widely spread, spatially and socially, and the final design of how the high speed link connects to regional transport will be crucial.</p>
<p> </p>
<h4>Daniel Durrant</h4>
<h4>The Bartlett, University College London</h4>
<p>Ironically, a project tagged as an “engine for growth” will begin by seriously disrupting local economies, such as Camden, west of Euston station in London. The impact on business and the extent of the 10 year disruption from construction is huge, and will bring a loss of green space, increased pollution in an already polluted area, and long periods of night-time disturbances. There is no compensation on offer for loss of trade, and opportunities have been missed for regenerating the area. </p>
<p>HS2 estimates that 215 dwellings will have to be demolished, while Camden council estimates that around 500 will be uninhabitable during construction, most within the <a href="http://www.camden.gov.uk/ccm/cms-service/download/asset?asset_id=2794913">Regent’s Park Estate’s</a> social housing. It will be extremely hard to rehouse these families, with more than 25,000 already on the housing waiting list. Even leaseholders could be forced out as compensation would not be sufficient to buy similar accommodation in a borough where the average house price is £837,550.</p>
<p>These local costs do not negate the case for strategic projects in the national interest. But they do raise questions about how they are defined and implemented. We need to accept that the way these megaprojects are framed is crucial. How success is defined shapes the kind of project that is delivered. The failure to realise the full regeneration potential or offer fair compensation is driven by a timescale criticised as “<a href="http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/whereilive/northwest/southbucks/10422085.print/">overambitious</a>”. Driving headlong to meet deadlines and budgets leads to problems if they dominate decision making.</p>
<p>If the project were to take a bit longer, cost a little more but deliver more benefit or cause less disruption, then any decision making process needs to properly consider these options. There is a loss of trust when mitigation measures and compensation is treated as secondary to financial concerns and a tight and apparently arbitrary timescale. There is a deep suspicion in Camden, and along the route, that this is why other options have not been properly considered. Trust is an important commodity especially in strategic projects where the local consequences are so profound.</p>
<p> </p>
<h4>Kurt Allman, Associate Dean</h4>
<h4>Salford Business School, University of Salford</h4>
<p>The North West of England has a long history of prospering from large and contentious capital infrastructure projects: the <a href="http://www.salford.gov.uk/history-of-the-bridgewater-canal-htm.htm">Bridgewater canal</a> (1761), the world’s first passenger transport railway between Liverpool and Manchester (1830), and the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2013/jun/03/manchester-ship-canal-video">Manchester Ship Canal</a> (1894) to name but a few.</p>
<p>In the context of those projects, the long-term economic position is that reliable, frequent and good value mass transportation between large cities is a core component of supporting economic growth and prosperity. But any assessment of the true economic impact would be very difficult to quantify, and efforts to do so appear unbalanced and very subjective – essentially an instrument to justify the arguer’s political principles, generally displaying a Beechingesque or Brunelian fundamentalism depending on the position.</p>
<p>My position on HS2 stands on the premise of value, something the government has not expressed particularly well. This is the central plank of the debate. To be clear, I am in favour of <a href="http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Market_failures/Public_transport.html">subsidised public transport</a>, as there is often market failure in provision in all but peak hour Monday to Friday travel. However as cost projections reach £42 billion, together with an average peak fare of possibly £350-£450 in today’s money, I’d rather see investment spent supporting current infrastructure or improving reliability and reducing costs of peak hour travel.</p>
<p>The business case for investment rests on the economic benefit, but this will only truly materialise in full for small and (particularly) and large businesses in Manchester and the north if the costs of frequent travel does not prevent them from competing against businesses closer to London and the South East.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the HS2 decision must not be rushed through for political expediency. Other possible engineering options, their cost and value must be considered – compared to our European neighbours the price per mile appears poor value. And any business case must consider the consumer of publicly funded, high speed transport; ultimately the economics rest on ticket prices appealing to enough users to make the service viable without relying on significant continued public subsidy.</p>
<p> </p>
<h4>Professor David Bailey</h4>
<h4>Aston University</h4>
<p>The case for HS2 seems to have shifted toward its possible role in boosting regional regeneration. Here, HS2 may be necessary but it simply isn’t sufficient on its own.</p>
<p>It’s been said for some time that if HS2 simply stops at the buffers at <a href="http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/local-news/curzon-street-birminghams-gateway-europe-4007357">Curzon Street Station</a> then the West Midlands region won’t reap the benefits of the high speed network. Isolated towns and communities need linking in to boost economic growth, which means HS2 must be integrated into the region’s transport network.</p>
<p>That needs a vision and a plan, now a lot more difficult since the abolition of <a href="http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/webarchive/regional-development-agencies.htm">Regional Development Agencies</a> in England. London got to keep its development agency and its assets, of course, and what’s on offer to London isn’t available to other English cities. In fact even after the government’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/giving-more-power-back-to-cities-through-city-deals">City Deals</a> policy, England will remain the most centralised state in Western Europe.</p>
<p>A less London-centric approach to high speed rail requires redressing the balance of power from the capital to other cities, a fresh impetus towards regional governance, and a more equitable distribution of funding between London and the rest. While not as far advanced as in the North West and Yorkshire, discussion around forming a <a href="http://www.demos.co.uk/blog/thenorthisrisingbutwhichnorth">combined authority</a> was moving forward in the West Midlands. But what voluntary regional collaboration had achieved in the past depended heavily on a handful of motivated individuals – just not robust enough for the long-haul required to make the most of HS2. Regenerating the West Midlands means linking HS2 to as much of the region as possible, and that’s far more likely when proper regional governance and powers are in place.</p>
<p> </p>
<h4>Professor Graham Winch</h4>
<h4>Manchester Business School, University of Manchester</h4>
<p>The evidence underpinning the HS2 debate comes from detailed <a href="http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/performing-a-costbenefit-analysis.html">cost-benefit analysis</a>, a technique developed a century ago by French and US engineers to try to de-politicise the process of investing in infrastructure. Once described by Peter Self, following <a href="http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/275840/human-rights/219322/Nonsense-upon-stilts-the-critics-of-natural-rights">Jeremy Bentham</a>, as “nonsense on stilts”, cost-benefit analysis remains our principal way of weighing up and planning future projects. Yet the method misses many costs and many benefits from the calculus as they cannot be meaningfully priced.</p>
<p>The debates about the benefits of time saved, congestion eased, and growth stimulated are very important, but inherently speculative because they are about the future more than 10 years hence. For John Maynard Keynes, this unknowability of the present benefits of capital investment for the future was the reason that the “<a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/animal-spirits.asp">animal spirits</a>” of entrepreneurs are so important for economic development.</p>
<p>So, can we turn the HS2 debate into one that is about the sort of country we want for the future? A country that is proud of its transport network, or do we want to be “<a href="http://www.lrb.co.uk/v08/n17/paul-addison/getting-on">living in an old country</a>” as per the title of Patrick Wright’s book, with ramshackle intercity transport and a growing north/south divide?</p>
<p>The outcome will shape our own sense of the nation, and the perceptions of those abroad deciding whether or not to invest in UK manufacturing and infrastructure. Of course we need to ensure value for money where that concept can be meaningfully applied, and ensure the costs of HS2 are minimised – in terms of capital expenditure and of impact on the countryside. But we also need to think about what sort of country we want to be and to have the courage to make the investments necessary.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/20168/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Durrant receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). He is a researcher at the OMEGA Centre, a research institute within the Bartlett School of Planning at UCL that was set up with funding from Volvo Research and Education Foundation (VREF).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Bailey has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, European Commission Interreg programme, European Commission FP7 programme, and others.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Mackie was until 2012 a member of the Analytical Challenge Panel set up to provide advice to HS2. He is currently an external adviser to the Airports Commission. He has in the past held grants and contracts which relate to the economic appraisal of transport projects, not always specifically railways.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Winch and Kurt Allman do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Professor Peter Mackie Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds Leeds and its metropolitan region should be one of the big winners from HS2. Financial and legal services, engineering consultancy…Daniel Durrant, Postdoctoral Student, UCLDavid Bailey, Professor of Industry, Aston UniversityGraham Winch, Professor of Construction Project Management, University of ManchesterKurt Allman, Associate Dean, Salford Business School, University of SalfordPeter Mackie, Research Professor, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.