tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/international-travel-57657/articlesInternational travel – The Conversation2023-06-22T16:59:33Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2062672023-06-22T16:59:33Z2023-06-22T16:59:33ZTechnology remains at the heart of the hajj<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532431/original/file-20230616-23-novafc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=24%2C0%2C8068%2C4913&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Iranian pilgrims pose for a selfie during the hajj pilgrimage in 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SaudiArabiaHajj/00c994b4debf44c18cd331df8cac397a/photo">AP Photo/Amr Nabil</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The hajj – <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-hajj-101641">the annual Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca</a>, Saudi Arabia, which Muslims are expected to make once in their lives if they are able – is expected to begin June 26 and last for five days. In 2023, <a href="https://www.arabianbusiness.com/abnews/hajj-2023-saudi-arabia-to-receive-2-million-pilgrims">approximately 2 million pilgrims will participate</a>, close to the annual <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/617696/saudi-arabia-total-hajj-pilgrims/">numbers of pilgrims</a> in years before the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>Their visits, like those in generations past, will be enhanced, and even made possible, by modern technology. </p>
<p>In recent years, the Saudi government has developed smartphone apps aimed at organizations of pilgrim groups. Pilgrims use apps themselves, with guides to help them find and pray at specific holy locations. And they document their journey, both physical and spiritual, on social media platforms like <a href="https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/hajj2023/">Instagram</a> and <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/hajj2023">TikTok</a>. </p>
<p>The country is rolling out <a href="https://twitter.com/MoHU_En/status/1416070942166499329">smart cards</a> for pilgrims to access hajj services and information, as well as make cashless payments.</p>
<p>And in 2022, the Saudi government established an online system by which prospective pilgrims from the U.S., Australia and Western Europe must enter a digital lottery for visas allowing them to <a href="https://theconversation.com/from-caravans-to-markets-the-hajj-pilgrimage-has-always-included-a-commercial-component-184418">make the hajj</a>. As for Muslim-majority countries, <a href="https://www.natvisa.com/saudi-arabia-blog/pilgrimage-visa-saudi-arabia">one visa is allocated</a> per 1,000 Muslims in each country. Those who are granted visas must <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-hajj-western-pilgrims-not-able-book-travel-agencies">book their travel through the Saudi government</a>, rather than through travel agencies in their home countries.</p>
<p>As those changes have occurred, news coverage about the hajj has often mentioned the technology involved, describing it as <a href="https://me.mashable.com/culture/23967/hajj-2023-expo-from-smartcards-to-ai-saudi-arabia-is-changing-the-face-of-pilgrimage-with-tech">a new phenomenon</a> that is “<a href="https://www.thenationalnews.com/gulf-news/2023/01/11/hajj-expo-2023-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-pilgrimage/">transforming” the pilgrimage</a>. </p>
<p>Yet as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=s3BLaAgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">historian of the Middle East</a> and an expert on contemporary Islam, I know that technology has been at the heart of the hajj since the mid-1800s. Transportation and communications technologies have long been fundamental to governments’ management of the pilgrimage and to pilgrims’ spiritual experiences.</p>
<h2>Travel technology</h2>
<p>As far back as the 1850s, steamship technology made it possible for many more Muslims to make the pilgrimage even if they lived long distances from Mecca. </p>
<p>According to scholar <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/daily-author/eric-schewe/">Eric Schewe</a>, “<a href="https://daily.jstor.org/how-european-empires-helped-shape-the-hajjhow-european-empires-helped-shape-the-hajj/">European shipping lines sought Hajj pilgrims as passengers to supplement</a>” the money they made from shipping commercial cargo through the Suez Canal. By dropping off pilgrims at Arabian ports along a route their ships were already traveling, merchants were able to make a little extra income around the time of the hajj.</p>
<p>And the pilgrims appreciated the safety, speed, reliability and lower cost of steamship travel. As a result, they could reach the hajj more quickly and more cheaply than at any earlier period in history. From the 1880s to the 1930s, the <a href="https://daily.jstor.org/how-european-empires-helped-shape-the-hajjhow-european-empires-helped-shape-the-hajj">number of pilgrims going on hajj each year quadrupled</a>.</p>
<p>While steamships helped those traveling by water, rail helped those coming by land – especially those from Russia, whose multi-leg journeys often included travel by train to Odessa, in today’s Ukraine, or another Black Sea port, where they <a href="https://russia-islworld.ru/main/how-russian-muslims-went-to-the-hajj-in-the-past/">crossed to Istanbul by steamship</a> and then to Mecca via caravan. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532299/original/file-20230615-21-df5gh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photographic panorama of a holy space." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532299/original/file-20230615-21-df5gh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532299/original/file-20230615-21-df5gh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=224&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532299/original/file-20230615-21-df5gh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=224&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532299/original/file-20230615-21-df5gh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=224&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532299/original/file-20230615-21-df5gh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532299/original/file-20230615-21-df5gh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532299/original/file-20230615-21-df5gh9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘The honoured Ka‘bah and the Meccan sanctuary,’ 1880 photography by Sadiq Bey.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Khalili_Collection_Hajj_and_Arts_of_Pilgrimage_Arc.pp-0254.2.jpg">Khalili Collections via Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Communications technology</h2>
<p>The telegraph also played an important role in the hajj. The Ottoman government used its extensive telegraph network to govern and as <a href="https://trafo.hypotheses.org/30676">a sign of independence</a> from European powers; one key link was from the capital in <a href="https://www.archnet.org/sites/20029">Istanbul through Damascus, Syria, to Mecca</a>. European consular officials, rail and steamship companies and even individual pilgrims used the telegraph system for hajj-related communications.</p>
<p>Other communications technologies also affected the pilgrimage. <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/imperial-mecca/9780231190770">Colonial powers with Muslim populations worried</a> that the mass gathering of Muslims would lead to political unrest. They also worried about public health. </p>
<p>The speed of rail and steam travel meant that pilgrims could bring infectious diseases home with them, as happened with the <a href="https://www.lectures.iastate.edu/lectures/pilgrims-passport-pandemics-past-mecca-and-hajj-under-quarantine-cholera-covid-19">cholera epidemics that broke out regularly</a> during the hajj in the 1800s. </p>
<p>Many governments introduced tracking regulations that relied on print technologies: The Dutch in 1825 began requiring pilgrims to get passports, while the French in 1892 began requiring Algerian pilgrims to have travel permits. The British government in 1886 gave travel agency Thomas Cook an <a href="https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/package-tour-to-mecca-how-the-hajj-became-an-essential-part-of-the-british-calendar">exclusive contract for hajj travel from India</a>, requiring pilgrims to pre-purchase tickets for each leg of the journey. </p>
<p>Together, these regulations helped pilgrims get through the hajj safely. But they also worked to minimize its potential political and public health risks for the colonial powers that governed most of the world’s Muslim population.</p>
<h2>Into the modern era</h2>
<p>The spread of commercial air travel starting in the 1940s changed hajj dynamics further: Flying was even faster, cheaper and safer than steamship travel. It offered to further open hajj participation to more Muslims, but created massive logistical, political and economic challenges as the number of pilgrims increased six or seven times <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/0195171071.001.0001">between 1950 and 1980</a>.</p>
<p>New communications technologies further popularized the hajj. For example, radio stations covered the hajj, starting in the 1940s in Mandate Palestine, with pilgrim letters broadcast to listeners at home. Like earlier <a href="https://www.britishpathe.com/asset/251774/">cinema newsreels</a>, television from the 1960s showed viewers footage of pilgrims circumambulating or walking around the Kaaba, one of the key hajj rituals. This footage helped inspire them to want to go on hajj as well. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, growing literacy rates allowed Muslims to read the increasing number of <a href="https://www.meccabooks.com/266-handbook-for-hajj-and-umrah-9780860373407.html">printed hajj guides</a> helping them navigate lodging, eating and worship. <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/distributed/M/bo20313514.html">Contemporary hajj travelogues</a> recording pilgrims’ experiences are part of a classical genre of Middle Eastern travel literature, known in Arabic as the <a href="https://funci.org/the-emergence-of-the-rihla-or-travel-literature/?lang=en">rihla</a> or seyahetname; both terms describe books of travels that typically included pilgrimage.</p>
<p>As pilgrims <a href="https://twitter.com/shen_shiwei/status/1289250173961396224/photo/1">celebrated their ability to travel to the hajj</a> via airplane, glitches happened. In 1952, the Saudi government’s last-minute cutting a hajj entry tax encouraged thousands of additional pilgrims to fly to Beirut, where Lebanese airline companies had no seats available. Instead, the <a href="https://roadsandkingdoms.com/2014/when-uncle-sam-rolled-out-the-magic-carpet-for-hajj/">United States Air Force organized an airlift</a> that transported nearly 4,000 stranded pilgrims from Beirut to Mecca in time to make the hajj.</p>
<p>Again, communications technologies played an important role in pilgrim management. In the 1950s, <a href="https://www.papertotravel.com/MP-323/photo/5723">British-governed Malaysia</a> issued so-called “pilgrim passports,” which collected all information relevant to a pilgrim’s travel, from vaccination dates to next of kin contact information. Saudi-issued hajj visas evolved from handwritten and handstamped in the <a href="https://www.ebay.com/itm/314050359157">1970s</a> to digitally stamped, bar-coded visas by the <a href="https://www.papertotravel.com/MP-576/photo/10717">late 2000s</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532432/original/file-20230616-25-p8kviv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd of people moves through a tunnel." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532432/original/file-20230616-25-p8kviv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532432/original/file-20230616-25-p8kviv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532432/original/file-20230616-25-p8kviv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532432/original/file-20230616-25-p8kviv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532432/original/file-20230616-25-p8kviv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532432/original/file-20230616-25-p8kviv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532432/original/file-20230616-25-p8kviv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Massive numbers of people make the hajj every year, requiring significant effort for crowd control and safety.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/prospective-pilgrims-continue-their-worship-to-fulfill-the-news-photo/1241839087">Ashraf Amra/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Large numbers of travelers</h2>
<p>Historically, a tiny minority of Muslims envisioned making the pilgrimage at any point in their lives. Even today, most Muslims will never be able to go on hajj, and most who do will go only once. </p>
<p>But the <a href="https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2023/04/354870/global-muslim-population-exceeds-2-billion">global Muslim population</a> numbers just over 2 billion, so even a small fraction of their total means a lot of people. The 2 million expected on this year’s hajj are still just 0.1% of the world’s Muslims.</p>
<p>With travel and communications eased, Mecca’s ability to handle all those visitors at once has become <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/features/2023/04/03/Umrah-crowd-control-How-Saudi-authorities-are-ensuring-safety-of-pilgrims-">the major challenge</a>. The stakes are high for the Saudi Ministry of Hajj and <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-fears-put-a-halt-to-the-muslim-pilgrimage-of-umrah-but-not-yet-the-hajj-132943">Umrah</a>: It is expected to provide a safe, healthy and spiritually meaningful experience for all pilgrims, while avoiding any bad press for the host country. Umrah, known as the “lesser pilgrimage”, is recommended but not required for Muslims. It includes many of the hajj rituals but can be completed at any time of the year.</p>
<p>Now, with its own digital tools and devices in the hands of many pilgrims, the 21st century hajj fits within the longer history of technology and the hajj, a story nearly 200 years old. Even as the specific technologies have changed, their importance to the management of the hajj and to pilgrims’ spiritual experiences remains constant.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206267/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrea Stanton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Saudi government is using digital technology to help the hajj run smoothly and safely – the latest updates in a 200-year history of technology and the hajj.Andrea Stanton, Associate Professor of Islamic Studies & Faculty Affiliate, Center for Middle East Studies, University of DenverLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2052712023-05-09T18:11:40Z2023-05-09T18:11:40ZPassport bottleneck is holding up international travel by Americans eager to see the world as COVID-19 eases<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524978/original/file-20230508-221323-4jr98o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C333%2C3895%2C1938&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A JetBlue employee poses next to a Boston replica of London's Big Ben before the launch of nonstop flights between Boston and London in 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/jet-blue-employee-gets-her-photograph-taken-standing-next-news-photo/1239787161?adppopup=true">David L. Ryan/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The World Health Organization declared on May 5, 2023, that the COVID-19 pandemic is <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/05/1136367">no longer a public health emergency</a>. Although the virus is still causing <a href="https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_weeklydeaths_select_00">hospitalizations and deaths</a>, many travelers who were reluctant to go abroad because of the pandemic now feel freer to travel internationally again.</p>
<p>That’s going to be a whole lot easier to do this summer if <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/passports/how-apply.html">you already have a valid passport</a>. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/03/travel/passport-processing-wait-times.html">wait times for getting one</a> are soaring. The <a href="https://www.state.gov/update-on-passport-processing-times/">State Department says it can take up to 13 weeks</a> for it to process passport applications, and up to nine weeks for expedited service that requires the payment of extra fees. It’s <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/unprecedented-demand-for-passports-antony-blinken-state-department/">getting about 500,000 passport applications a week</a>, which is at least 30% more than last year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in March. And delays in processing were <a href="https://www.thrillist.com/news/nation/passport-application-wait-times-2022">already aggravating in 2021 and 2022</a>.</p>
<p>I’m among the many Americans who have had to <a href="https://abc11.com/us-passport-renewal-status-application/12963897/">cancel or delay trips</a> because of the long wait times. I was hoping to fly to London for a weeklong break between teaching economics courses. Unfortunately, renewing my passport took so long I couldn’t go.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://federalnewsnetwork.com/hiring-retention/2021/07/state-dept-staffing-surge-wont-address-passport-backlog-overnight-union-warns/">government says staffing issues</a> are contributing to the delays. As an economist who <a href="https://blogs.bu.edu/zagorsky/">researches the everyday experiences of consumers</a>, I wondered if there was more to the story, since international travel is a big business. U.S. residents <a href="https://www.trade.gov/data-visualization/monthly-travel-trade-monitor">spent around US$17 billion</a> in just the month of March 2023 going abroad.</p>
<h2>Origin of passports</h2>
<p>Passports <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/canadians/celebrate-being-canadian/teachers-corner/history-passports.html">have been around a long time</a>. They became more widespread about four centuries ago during the reign of the French King Louis the XIV. The king gave people with <a href="https://www.royal.uk/passports?page=1">royal connections</a> letters asking foreign officials to let the traveler “passe port” – French for pass through – the port or border of <a href="https://www.cbp.gov/about/history/did-you-know/passport-protection">another country safely</a>.</p>
<p>You can find a similar statement in the front of every U.S. passport, which “requests all whom it may concern to permit the citizen/national of the United States named herein to pass without delay or hindrance.”</p>
<p>One reason for the passport bottleneck in the United States is a long-term increase in demand for those official blue booklets. Back in 1989, there were three valid passports for every 100 people in this country. Today there are more than 45 passports for every 100 Americans. More recently, many Americans who let their passports expire because they were avoiding international travel when the pandemic began are <a href="https://thepointsguy.com/news/passport-processing-status/">eager to travel again</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="uLbW6" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uLbW6/6/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Changes after 2000</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.census.gov/topics/population.html">U.S. population has increased</a> about 1% each year over the past three decades. During that same period the <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/about-us/reports-and-statistics.html/">number of people holding a valid passport</a> has jumped an average of 10% each year, 10 times faster than population growth.</p>
<p>Part of the rising demand for passports followed a policy change in the early 2000s. <a href="https://1997-2001.state.gov/briefings/statements/971219d.html">Before then no passport was required</a> for U.S. citizens to travel to Canada, Mexico or the Caribbean. A driver’s license or an official document like a birth certificate was suitable documentation to visit countries that shared a common border with the U.S. <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/timeline-travel-documents-at-the-canada-u-s-border-1.834929">By 2009, however, a passport was needed</a> to visit those nearby countries by air, land or sea.</p>
<p>But the new rules don’t fully account for the surge in passport issuance. In 2010, about 100 million people had valid U.S. passports. Today, <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/about-us/reports-and-statistics.html/">over 150 million</a> do.</p>
<h2>Lost, stolen and damaged passports</h2>
<p>Another reason for the passport boom is that the State Department is fielding more requests than before for reissued passports to replace lost or stolen documents. </p>
<p>One problem while traveling is <a href="https://www.interpol.int/en/How-we-work/Border-management/Look-after-your-travel-document">keeping your passport safe</a>. While so far <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-americans-shouldnt-fear-traveling-abroad-118305">no one has ever stolen my passport</a>, I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-googles-plan-to-blanket-wilderness-with-wi-fi-is-a-bad-idea-49632">spilled food on it while climbing mountains</a>, <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/passports/replacing-your-passport-after-the-storm.html">gotten it soaked in a monsoon</a> and crushed it in my luggage <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-would-anyone-want-to-sit-on-a-plane-for-over-18-hours-an-economist-takes-the-worlds-longest-flight-122433">on the world’s longest flight</a>.</p>
<p>If your passport is ever lost, destroyed or stolen, you need to file a <a href="https://eforms.state.gov/Forms/ds64.PDF">DS-64 form</a> with the State Department. Filing this form prevents a thief from using that passport. The data is not just kept in the U.S. but is also sent to <a href="https://www.justice.gov/interpol-washington/pr/interpol-stolenlost-travel-document-database">Interpol’s Stolen/Lost Travel Document database</a>, which prevents worldwide travel by someone posing as you when traveling with your stolen passport.</p>
<p>The government periodically releases the number of DS-64 forms filed. In 2005 <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/FR-2005-09-06/05-17636">a bit more than 100,000</a> were submitted. This jumped fivefold to <a href="https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/09/09/2021-18829/30-day-notice-of-proposed-information-collection-statement-regarding-a-lost-or-stolen-us-passport">over 500,000 people who reported losing</a> their passports in 2021.</p>
<h2>Who gets passports?</h2>
<p>Where do passport applications come from? </p>
<p>Not surprisingly, states with more people tend to get more passports. For example, <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/about-us/reports-and-statistics.html/">Californians got the highest number of passports, about 2.7 million, in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>But some states have more wanderlust than others. After adjusting for <a href="https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-state-total.html">population, over the past few years</a> the top two sources for international travel are the <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2022/acs/acsbr-011.pdf">high-income states</a> of New Jersey and Massachusetts. <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/about-us/reports-and-statistics.html/">Around 1 out every 17 residents</a> in those places applied annually for a passport. </p>
<p>The states where residents are the least likely to apply for a passport are the <a href="https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2022/acs/acsbr-011.pdf">low-income states</a> of Mississippi and West Virginia. In those places only about <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/about-us/reports-and-statistics.html/">1 out every 65 residents</a> applied on average each year.</p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>One of the reasons passport processing times have gotten so long is that many people are taking trips they put off in the spring of 2020. What can be done? </p>
<p>I suggest two things.</p>
<p>First, the <a href="https://www.trade.gov/press-release/ntto-releases-survey-international-air-travelers-siat-outbound-monitor">Caribbean is one of the most popular U.S. tourist destinations</a>. U.S. travelers today can visit the <a href="https://www.travelchannel.com/destinations/us/photos/no-passport-required">U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico without a passport</a> because they are U.S. territories. I believe that expanding this access to a small number of Caribbean countries, as was possible before the 2009 policy change, would boost tourism and reduce passport demand.</p>
<p>Second, citizens with a current passport should be able to use it while waiting for a renewal. Right now old passports must be submitted with renewal forms, which blocks international travel. The State Department doesn’t really need the old documents. It recently ran a trial allowing <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/passports/have-passport/renew-online.html">people to renew passports online</a> without asking for their current passport books.</p>
<p>Once a new passport is issued, the old one becomes invalid. This could present a problem for people traveling abroad while their passport renews. There is a simple solution for this. At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic the State Department <a href="https://www.state.gov/extension-of-temporary-measure-allowing-return-travel-to-the-united-states-on-expired-u-s-passport-2/">allowed U.S. citizens who were abroad when their passports expired</a> to reenter the country.</p>
<p>Extending this policy would mean people could continue traveling no matter how long it takes to renew their passport.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205271/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Precautions taken in response to COVID-19 explain some but not all of the recent long delays in getting a passport.Jay L. Zagorsky, Clinical Associate Professor of Markets, Public Policy and Law, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1978732023-02-13T13:24:54Z2023-02-13T13:24:54ZStudying abroad is poised to make a post-pandemic comeback – here are 5 questions students who plan to study overseas should ask<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509237/original/file-20230209-20-vhjqr7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C231%2C6699%2C4215&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Travel restrictions can disrupt the best-laid plans.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/young-female-commuter-using-mobile-phone-in-the-royalty-free-image/1128327013?phrase=college%20student%20travel&adppopup=true">damircudic/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before the pandemic struck in 2020, the number of U.S. students studying abroad had been pretty much rising steadily each year.</p>
<p>Whereas more than 154,000 students from the U.S. participated in study abroad programs during the 2000-2001 academic year, that number more than doubled – to over 347,000 – during the 2018-2019 academic year. That’s according to the <a href="https://opendoorsdata.org/data/us-study-abroad/all-destinations/">Institute of International Education</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html">global spread of COVID-19</a>, however, brought the steady growth in study abroad to a screeching halt in early 2020. Students were <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/03/20/covid-19-disrupts-international-student-exchange-both-directions">evacuated from host countries</a> and study abroad programs got <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/us/colleges-canceling-study-abroad-coronavirus-trnd/index.html">canceled</a>. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52103747">Lockdowns</a> and <a href="https://www.unwto.org/news/covid-19-response-travel-restrictions">travel restrictions</a> led the number of U.S. students studying abroad during the 2020-2021 academic year to <a href="https://opendoorsdata.org/infographic/u-s-students-studying-abroad-1989-90-2020-21/">plummet</a> by 91% to just 14,549.</p>
<p>While official study abroad numbers for 2021-2022 are not yet published, there is reason to expect a rebound. A <a href="https://www.iie.org/publications/spring-2022-snapshot-on-international-educational-exchange/">national survey</a> conducted in April 2022 revealed that roughly 90% of colleges and universities were planning to offer some form of study abroad by the summer of that year. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=gx18o9wAAAAJ">university administrator who specializes in international education</a>, I believe the number of students studying abroad will continue to rise. I see that as a positive development given the research that shows studying abroad <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11162-022-09673-z">supports academic success</a>, <a href="https://www.iie.org/news/2017-10-02-gaining-an-employment-edge/">promotes career readiness</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.36366/frontiers.v34i1.636">prepares students to interact with people from other cultures</a>. Moreover, increasing the number of U.S. students studying abroad supports <a href="https://app.box.com/s/sbzvdl4st0ruhnk4fdhur4sxf6v6ii1a">U.S. foreign policy goals</a> that rely on <a href="https://eca.state.gov/files/bureau/functional_bureau_strategy_fact_sheet.pdf">people-to-people exchanges</a> and <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/540262-the-soft-but-unmatched-power-of-us-foreign-exchange-programs/">public diplomacy</a>.</p>
<p>However, as studying abroad makes its comeback, much has changed with how study abroad programs operate. Below are five questions to ask when planning to study abroad in a post-pandemic world.</p>
<h2>1. What is the Plan B in case my program gets disrupted?</h2>
<p>In 2020, as students were recalled to the U.S. by their home institutions, a key concern was how students could remain on track for their degrees without losing both time and money due to the cancellations – which stemmed from reasons beyond their own control.</p>
<p>An important question for students to ask is how study abroad programs would ensure that they can continue their studies in case of a disruption, whether it’s caused by rare events, such as a pandemic or international conflict, but also more routine matters, such as a national strike.</p>
<h2>2. Do I need extra insurance?</h2>
<p>Students should not assume that their regular U.S. health insurance will provide the level of coverage needed while abroad. In fact, the <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/travel-insurance/medical-evacuation-coverage/">cost of a medical evacuation</a> can run as high as US$250,000. </p>
<p>Most study abroad programs offer, and many require, participants to enroll in an affordable international travel insurance policy. In addition to paying for medical expenses, benefits may include coverage for costs associated with trip cancellation, required periods of quarantine, and emergency evacuations. Additionally, the policy may provide non-insurance travel assistance services, such as helping to replace lost or stolen documents. Students should ask about the availability of these policies and know what is covered.</p>
<h2>3. What are the host country restrictions?</h2>
<p>At the height of the pandemic, countries’ COVID-19 policies ranged from status quo to complete lockdown. In some instances, travelers could be fined or jailed for failing to follow local restrictions. The U.S. Department of State created a web page with <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/COVID-19-Country-Specific-Information.html">information on the COVID-19 restrictions</a> of each country. While most countries have dialed back restrictions, it is still very important to review this information because these policies can affect a student’s ability to travel and participate in certain activities once they are abroad.</p>
<h2>4. What are the latest travel risks?</h2>
<p>While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provides <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/travelers/international-travel-during-covid19.html">data</a> on traveling in the era of COVID-19, including risk ratings and vaccination recommendations by country, it is also important to understand how the pandemic may have influenced <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2022.pdf">other risks</a>, such as by contributing to <a href="https://acleddata.com/analysis/covid-19-disorder-tracker">political tensions</a> and applying pressure to already <a href="https://www.who.int/data/gho/publications/world-health-statistics">fragile health care systems</a>.</p>
<p>Students should <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel.html">review the country-specific information</a> published by the State Department, as well as register for real-time updates from the local U.S. embassy. Additionally, students should inquire about other resources, such as in-country staff available to assist with emergencies, who may be available to support program participants once they are abroad.</p>
<h2>5. What scholarships can help cover the cost?</h2>
<p>Because study abroad programs were mostly paused for the past few years, the scholarship funds that colleges have dedicated to these programs may have been left largely untouched. Fund balances could be higher now and there may be a possibility to obtain a larger award than in years past. Students should inquire with their college’s study abroad and financial aid offices about scholarship opportunities. Such funding can vary greatly by program duration, location and other factors, so students should be flexible with their plans to receive the maximum award.</p>
<p>Whether or not their college offers generous scholarships for study abroad, students should also consider applying for external funding. The Fund for Education Abroad, an organization committed to increasing the number of underrepresented students studying abroad, <a href="https://fundforeducationabroad.org/scholarships/">maintains a listing</a> of more than 20 dedicated scholarships. Additionally, the State Department compiles information on applying for study abroad <a href="https://studyabroad.state.gov/us-government-scholarships-and-programs/us-college-and-university-students">programs and scholarships supported by the U.S. government</a>. Some of these programs and scholarships are designed to lead to a federal job. The department also keeps a list of various <a href="https://studyabroad.state.gov/foreign-government-scholarships">scholarships from foreign governments</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197873/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David L. Di Maria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An international education expert offers five tips for students planning to study overseas in a post-pandemic world.David L. Di Maria, Associate Vice Provost for International Education, University of Maryland, Baltimore CountyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1981002023-01-24T12:48:28Z2023-01-24T12:48:28ZWe tested the wastewater from planes to detect COVID among travellers – here’s what we found<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505586/original/file-20230120-16-vj6l2t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5081%2C3392&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sunset-view-airplane-on-airport-runway-1889546404">Wichudapa/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Small traces of many pathogens, such as viruses we may be infected with, are excreted when we go to the toilet. Ultimately, these agents find their way to municipal wastewater treatment plants where sewage samples can be taken and the levels of these pathogens measured. </p>
<p>This field of science is called <a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-17819-2_5">wastewater-based epidemiology</a> and it may be a way to track the spread of COVID across the world via airports. It’s already a powerful tool to monitor the levels of infectious diseases circulating in a community. It’s also relatively simple, inexpensive, and, most importantly, provides a snapshot of the health of a whole community (not only those people who seek medical help).</p>
<p>Wastewater-based epidemiology has been used for the early detection of <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/210/suppl_1/S294/2194423?login=false">poliovirus</a> for decades, and it has been implemented to monitor SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) <a href="https://www.covid19wbec.org/">in more than 70 countries</a> since the start of the pandemic. Wastewater surveillance allows us to not only track when SARS-CoV-2 is present, but it can identify <a href="https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/spectrum.03177-22">different variants</a> of the virus too. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://journals.plos.org/globalpublichealth/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgph.0001346">new study</a>, we tested the wastewater from planes arriving in the UK, and at airport terminals, for SARS-CoV-2. Our findings suggest that wastewater monitoring could be a useful tool for tracking COVID at international airports and other travel hubs. This could potentially help monitor how infectious diseases cross international borders.</p>
<h2>Detecting COVID in wastewater</h2>
<p>We sought to detect SARS-CoV-2 in sewage taken at the arrival terminals of three international airports in the UK (Heathrow, Bristol and Edinburgh), and from about 30 planes arriving into these airports, during March 2022. For aircraft surveillance, we collected the sewage samples from vacuum trucks which remove wastewater from the aircraft.</p>
<p>Most samples from both the planes and the terminals contained high concentrations of SARS-CoV-2, suggesting there were many people unwittingly bringing COVID back to the UK.</p>
<p>On <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/all-covid-19-travel-restrictions-removed-in-the-uk">March 18 2022</a> the UK government lifted the requirement for unvaccinated passengers to take a pre-departure test and another on day two after arriving. We studied sewage samples from both before and after these restrictions ended, and found high concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 regardless of when the samples were taken.</p>
<p>This could point to limitations in screening procedures, like pre-departure tests. That said, by March 2022 most of the UK population <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations">was vaccinated</a>, so it’s possible the majority of passengers didn’t have to take a pre-departure test.</p>
<p>However, this is still worth noting as many countries, including the UK, reinstated <a href="https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/china">pre-departure COVID testing</a> for people travelling from China in early January 2023.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/testing-sewage-has-helped-track-covid-soon-it-could-reveal-much-more-about-the-uks-health-178141">Testing sewage has helped track COVID – soon it could reveal much more about the UK's health</a>
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<p>We previously carried out wastewater monitoring on sewage collected <a href="https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/spectrum.03177-22">at hotel quarantine facilities</a> for people arriving in the UK from red-list countries between March and July 2021.</p>
<p>Similar to our latest research on airport surveillance, this work confirmed that many passengers entering the UK were carrying SARS-CoV-2. In this case, all passengers arriving would have had to take a pre-departure test.</p>
<p>These cases may not have been caught because the infection was in its early stages when they were first tested, because the testing failed or because they contracted COVID while in transit. But this clearly shows the difficulties associated with trying to prevent infectious diseases crossing international borders.</p>
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<img alt="Senior lab technician, Nick Woodhall, setting up a qPCR assay as part of the study." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505552/original/file-20230120-26-gt5sny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505552/original/file-20230120-26-gt5sny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505552/original/file-20230120-26-gt5sny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505552/original/file-20230120-26-gt5sny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505552/original/file-20230120-26-gt5sny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505552/original/file-20230120-26-gt5sny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505552/original/file-20230120-26-gt5sny.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Senior lab technician, Nick Woodhall, sets up a test for a wastewater sample.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kata Farkas</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<h2>Some limitations</h2>
<p>Wastewater testing to monitor air travel passengers does have some drawbacks. For example, not every passenger uses the toilet on the plane. In a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722062611">recent study</a> we found that only 13% of passengers on short-haul flights and 36% of those on long-haul flights would be likely to defecate on the plane.</p>
<p>This data combined with the typical concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in faeces suggest that wastewater monitoring in this context is likely to capture about 8%–14% of all COVID cases on an aircraft. This is still a valuable addition to existing testing methods.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/polio-was-recently-detected-in-sewage-in-the-uk-heres-what-else-scientists-look-for-in-our-wastewater-185799">Polio was recently detected in sewage in the UK – here's what else scientists look for in our wastewater</a>
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<p>There may also be limitations in sampling and logistics. Sampling directly from aircraft is prohibited in some cases. It can be technically challenging as well, especially at large airports with hundreds of flights arriving every day. Sampling from vacuum trucks is more feasible than going directly onto the aircraft, but there is a potential risk of cross-contamination, as the trucks are not washed or disinfected frequently.</p>
<p>When it comes to sampling sewers in passenger terminals, the origin of the detected pathogen in unknown, and there’s a risk that the pathogen identified is from ground crew members and not from travellers. Even when a variant of interest is detected in an aircraft sample with known origin, it still raises the question as to whether the infected person (or people) will remain in the country or transit onward.</p>
<h2>A valuable tool</h2>
<p>It’s important for all countries to monitor what potential new diseases, and new variants of established diseases, are entering their borders. Despite some possible limitations, our research suggests that wastewater-based epidemiology could be a useful tool for the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 and other viral pathogens among international travellers. </p>
<p>This approach would help to better understand which pathogens are circulating globally without a need for individual testing, which can face ethical challenges and be complicated and expensive to undertake. </p>
<p>Indeed, a number of countries, including the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/05/health/airplane-wastewater-covid-testing/index.html">US</a>, <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canadian-scientists-watching-for-new-covid-variants-in-airplane-wastewater-1.6219046">Canada</a> and <a href="https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1870698/airplane-wastewater-to-be-tested-for-covid-19-at-vilnius-airport">EU member states</a> have so far implemented wastewater monitoring on planes to identify novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198100/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kata Farkas receives funding from the Welsh Government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Davey Jones receives funding from Welsh Government and the UK Health Security Agency.</span></em></p>Nearly all the wastewater samples from aircraft arriving in the UK showed evidence of COVID-infected passengers on board.Kata Farkas, Environmental Virologist, School of Natural Sciences, Bangor UniversityDavey Jones, Professor of Soil and Environmental Science, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1895582022-09-05T06:31:28Z2022-09-05T06:31:28ZQantas, the trying kangaroo: why things won’t get better any time soon<p>Unlike many airlines, Australia’s flag carrier Qantas has survived the pandemic. But its return to normal service – and profitability – is proving to be a bumpy ride. It could well get worse before it gets better.</p>
<p>As domestic and international travel picks up, the airline is struggling to keep up – having laid off thousands of staff whose experience, it turns out, was quite valuable for running such a complex business. Cancelled flights, lost luggage, long delays at airports and low staff morale are pummelling its carefully cultivated reputation. </p>
<p>Qantas engineers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-25/qantas-engineers-strike-safety-annual-profit-result/101368062">took industrial action</a> last month. This week there’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-05/qantas-staff-far-airlines-reputation-at-risk/101391324">a strike by baggage handlers</a> employed by the contractor used since the airline retrenched almost 2,000 ground crew workers in 2020. (The Fair Work Commission has since ruled this outsourcing <a href="https://australianaviation.com.au/2022/05/qantas-loses-bid-to-overturn-illegal-outsourcing-ruling/">was unlawful</a>.)</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/qantas-fights-on-against-court-ruling-it-unlawfully-sacked-2-000-workers-167434">Qantas fights on against court ruling it unlawfully sacked 2,000 workers</a>
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<p>Former staff have told the ABC’s <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-05/qantas-staff-far-airlines-reputation-at-risk/101391324">4 Corners program</a> they fear the cutbacks will undermine the airline’s safety record.</p>
<p>There is no quick or easy fix. These issues are tied to the airline’s profitability – or lack of it. Last financial year it reported an underlying loss before tax of <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/2281/q899.pdf">A$1.89 billion</a>. Since 2020, total losses have been A$7 billion, with the shutdown of travel costing about <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/qantas-announces-share-buy-back-as-air-travel-demand-surges">A$25 billion in revenue</a>, according to chief executive Alan Joyce.</p>
<h2>A challenging industry</h2>
<p>Qantas is by no means alone when it comes to the challenges of rebuilding after COVID. Even <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-infrastructure/our-insights/the-six-secrets-of-profitable-airlines">in normal times</a>, airlines are notoriously hard businesses to keep in the black. </p>
<p>The products they sell – seats – are highly perishable. Once a flight takes off, any empty seat becomes worthless. It is tempting to fill seats by discounting, but this can lead to competitors doing the same, and create a perception that leads customers to undervalue the product. </p>
<p>There’s a reason so many national carriers are fully or partly <a href="https://gulfbusiness.com/gulf-carriers-spotlight-eu-addresses-unfair-airline-competition/">government-owned</a> – including Air New Zealand, Emirates, Etihad, Garuda Indonesia, Malaysia Airlines and Singapore Airlines. </p>
<p>It’s debatable how many of these airlines would be viable as standalone commercial operations. An airline regulated by a government with a vested interest in its prosperity may be assisted in a variety of ways, from bailouts and tax subsidies to policies that help protect it from competition on domestic routes.</p>
<h2>How to cut costs?</h2>
<p>Adding to these difficulties in 2022 are fuel prices, inflated since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. Fuel costs typically account for about a <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/pressroom/fact-sheets/fact-sheet---fuel/">quarter of airline costs</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://simpleflying.com/what-is-fuel-hedging-and-why-do-airlines-do-it/">Hedging contracts</a> have protected Qantas from the full impact of these increases. Like other airlines, it has few options to cut fuel costs besides cutting routes or buying more fuel-efficient aircraft. (It is buying 12 new Airbus planes, but with the plan to offer long-haul flights without stopovers, which will <a href="https://theconversation.com/bucking-the-trend-is-there-a-future-for-ultra-long-haul-flights-in-a-net-zero-carbon-world-183212">increase fuel consumption</a>.)</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bucking-the-trend-is-there-a-future-for-ultra-long-haul-flights-in-a-net-zero-carbon-world-183212">Bucking the trend: Is there a future for ultra long-haul flights in a net zero carbon world?</a>
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<p>So cutting staff costs has become the default option. </p>
<p>Qantas has never shied away from this under Joyce, who was appointed chief executive in 2008. </p>
<p>In 2011 he notoriously <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-10-29/qantas-locking-out-staff/3608250">grounded the fleet</a> and locked out staff during “hardball” collective bargaining with three unions (the Australian and International Pilots Association, Australian Licenced Aircraft Engineers Association, and Transport Workers Union).</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482681/original/file-20220905-18-lay0oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Qantas passengers stranded at Hong Kong International Airport on Saturday, October 29 2011 after management grounded the airline's global fleet and locked out workers during enterprise agreement negotiations." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482681/original/file-20220905-18-lay0oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482681/original/file-20220905-18-lay0oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482681/original/file-20220905-18-lay0oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482681/original/file-20220905-18-lay0oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482681/original/file-20220905-18-lay0oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482681/original/file-20220905-18-lay0oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482681/original/file-20220905-18-lay0oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Qantas passengers stranded at Hong Kong International Airport on Saturday, October 29 2011 after management grounded its global fleet and locked out workers during enterprise agreement negotiations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kin Cheung/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this combative stance on wages and conditions, and outsourcing so many key activities, has thinned corporate knowledge. Qantas’ problems with <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/brisbane-man-bag-destroyed-by-qantas-still-waiting-for-airline-to-resolve-his-2000-dollar-claim/2fdf9865-7350-4735-bc1a-b02201a3a7eb">lost luggage</a> are clearly linked to sacking so many experienced staff and replacing them with contract workers who don’t necessarily understand how the airline’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/42e15d6d-bc05-4a5b-af16-c8c7f72af0fd">complex systems work</a>.</p>
<h2>A difficult outlook</h2>
<p>It’s easy to look for scapegoats – there are mounting calls for Joyce to go, for example – but there are no easy solutions to the problems Qantas faces.</p>
<p>In the short term it must to balance the cost-cutting required with the reality that further aggravating its workforce will lower customer service – and ultimately its reputation. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Australian domestic airlines by market share, January 2019 to April 2022</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482679/original/file-20220905-1142-bxu7se.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482679/original/file-20220905-1142-bxu7se.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/482679/original/file-20220905-1142-bxu7se.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482679/original/file-20220905-1142-bxu7se.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482679/original/file-20220905-1142-bxu7se.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482679/original/file-20220905-1142-bxu7se.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482679/original/file-20220905-1142-bxu7se.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/482679/original/file-20220905-1142-bxu7se.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/australias-domestic-market-nearing-full-recovery-but-short-term-problems-blunt-capacity-618938">CAPA - Centre for Aviation; ACCC</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>Domestically it has the advantage of its major competitor, Virgin Australia, being in an even worse position. Virgin only survived the pandemic by being sold to US private equity giant Bain Capital. This should save Qantas from a domestic discounting war for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>But even with subdued domestic competition, the airline industry remains unattractive. For the flying kangaroo, the path back to profitability looks set to be one of many ups and downs.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-covid-19-means-the-era-of-ever-cheaper-air-travel-could-be-over-172149">Why COVID-19 means the era of ever cheaper air travel could be over</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/189558/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Galvin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>there are no easy solutions to the problems Qantas faces. It must balance the cost cutting required with further aggravating its workforce.Peter Galvin, Professor of Strategic Management, Edith Cowan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1869562022-07-14T12:34:33Z2022-07-14T12:34:33ZItching to get away this summer? Remember the six stages of transformative travel<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473909/original/file-20220713-12-gxnkpa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C13%2C2910%2C1971&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sightseeing buses at a pullout popular for taking in views of North America's tallest peak, Denali, in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, in 2016.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/DenaliParkRoad/1f4f9a3effe44e1d986d1cc77d85b334/photo?Query=alaska%20park&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=674&currentItemNo=20">AP Photo/Becky Bohrer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In June 2022, I set off on a 10,650-mile, six-week motorcycle trip from Tennessee to Alaska and back again, carrying not too much more than my GPS and phone. The ride kick-started a year of travel for research – and despite <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2022/07/11/10000-flight-delays-worldwide/?sh=420621c04a00">the horror stories</a> of delayed and canceled flights, I couldn’t be happier.</p>
<p>Just about everywhere I went, even in remote parts of the Yukon and British Columbia, folks were traveling. Many of the trailers being pulled were brand-new, suggesting the owners had bought them recently. After yet another cooped-up pandemic winter, it seems people’s appetite to get away is just as keen. </p>
<p>But why do we travel in the first place? What is the allure of the open road? </p>
<p>As a professor of <a href="https://divinity.vanderbilt.edu/people/bio/jaco-hamman">religion, psychology and culture</a>, I study experiences that lie at the intersection of all three. And in my <a href="https://www.fortresspress.com/store/product/9781506472065/Just-Traveling">research on travel</a>, I’m struck by its unsolvable paradoxes: Many of us seek to get away in order to be present; we speed to destinations in order to slow down; we may care about the environment but still leave carbon footprints. </p>
<p>Ultimately, many people hope to return transformed. Travel <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2017.1292177">is often viewed</a> as what anthropologists call a “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Arnold-van-Gennep">rite of passage</a>”: structured rituals in which individuals separate themselves from their familiar surroundings, undergo change and return rejuvenated or “reborn.”</p>
<p>But travelers are not just concerned with themselves. The desire to explore may be a defining human trait, as I argue <a href="https://www.fortresspress.com/store/product/9781506472065/Just-Traveling">in my latest book</a>, “<a href="https://www.fortresspress.com/store/product/9781506472065/Just-Traveling">Just Traveling: God, Leaving Home, and a Spirituality for the Road</a>.” The ability to do it, however, is a privilege that can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.11.002">come at a cost</a> to host communities. Increasingly, the tourism industry and scholars alike are interested in <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cog/tri/2012/00000016/F0020003/art00003">ethical travel</a>, which minimizes visitors’ harm on the places and people they encounter. </p>
<p>The media inundate tourists with advice and enticements about where to travel and what to do there. But in order to meet the deeper goals of transformative, ethical travel, the “why” and “how” demand deeper discernment.</p>
<p>During my book research, I studied travel stories in sacred scriptures and researched findings from psychologists, sociologists, ethicists, economists and tourism scholars. I argue that meaningful travel is best understood not as a three-stage rite but as a six-phase practice, based on core human experiences. These phases can repeat and overlap within the same journey, just as adventures twist and turn.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="About half a dozen people in brightly colored clothes sit and chat on a fence with hills in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473910/original/file-20220713-9357-wvskck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473910/original/file-20220713-9357-wvskck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473910/original/file-20220713-9357-wvskck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473910/original/file-20220713-9357-wvskck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473910/original/file-20220713-9357-wvskck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473910/original/file-20220713-9357-wvskck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473910/original/file-20220713-9357-wvskck.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tourists sit on public benches in Dharmsala, India, June 17, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreakTheRebound/f6840725a0c24f6f8bf34f57cb4774d3/photo?Query=tourists&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=38056&currentItemNo=32">AP Photo/Ashwini Bhatia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>1. Anticipating</h2>
<p>Traveling begins long before departure, as we research and plan. But anticipation is more than logistics. The Dutch aptly call it “voorpret”: literally, <a href="https://www.wordsense.eu/">the pleasure before</a>.</p>
<p>How and what people anticipate in any given situation has the power to shape their experience, for better or worse – even when it comes to prejudice. Psychology experiments, for example, have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000899">when children anticipate greater cooperation between groups</a>, it can reduce their bias in favor of their own group.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://iep.utm.edu/phenom/">phenomenology</a>, a branch of philosophy that studies human experience and consciousness, emphasizes that <a href="http://ummoss.org/gall17varela.pdf">anticipation is also “empty</a>”: our conscious intentions and expectations of what’s to come could be fulfilled or dashed by a future moment. </p>
<p>With that in mind, travelers should try to remain open to uncertainty and even disappointment.</p>
<h2>2. Leaving</h2>
<p>Leaving can awaken deep emotions that are tied to our earliest experiences of separation. The attachment styles psychologists study in infants, which shape how secure people feel in their relationships, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-attachment-and-how-does-it-affect-our-relationships-120503">continue to shape us as adults</a>. These experiences can also affect how comfortable people feel <a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/cdd5594c53a7864881fb71e54a7422f1/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=1819046">exploring new experiences</a> and leaving home, which can affect how they travel.</p>
<p>Some travelers leave with excitement, while others experience <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520966392">hesitation or guilt</a> before the relief and excitement of departure. Mindfulness about the stages of travel can help people <a href="https://web.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=1931311X&asa=Y&AN=31381043&h=nduDC2UXNGxscORELrBj%2fjZ6b4Xdbo4r5mkTwNhY2n2D7Oi0KAOPOw%2fsqhqshijmc4%2bMd%2fLjR2%2b3rONsdCopzg%3d%3d&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3fdirect%3dtrue%26profile%3dehost%26scope%3dsite%26authtype%3dcrawler%26jrnl%3d1931311X%26asa%3dY%26AN%3d31381043">manage anxiety</a>.</p>
<h2>3. Surrendering</h2>
<p>Travelers cannot control their journey: A flight is canceled, or a vehicle breaks down; the weather report predicts sunshine, but it rains for days on end. To some extent, they have to surrender to the unknown.</p>
<p>Modern Western cultures tend to see “surrendering” as something negative – as hoisting a white flag. But as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00107530.1990.10746643">therapeutic concept</a>, surrendering helps people let go of inhibiting habits, discover a sense of wholeness and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1215/10407391-2005-006">experience togetherness</a> with others. The perfectionist learns that a changed itinerary doesn’t mean a diminished travel experience and lets go of the fear of failure. The person with a strong sense of independence grows in vulnerability when receiving care from strangers.</p>
<p>In fact, some psychological theories hold that the self longs for surrender, in the sense of liberation: letting down its defensive barriers and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022167820975636">finding freedom</a> from attempts to control one’s surroundings. Embracing that view can help travelers cope with the reality that things may not go according to plan.</p>
<h2>4. Meeting</h2>
<p>Meeting, traveling’s fourth phase, is the invitation to discover oneself and others anew. </p>
<p>All cultures have unconscious “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Location-of-Culture/Bhabha/p/book/9780415336390">rules of recognition</a>,” their own ingrained customs and ways of thinking, making it more difficult to forge cross-cultural connections. Carrying <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Serene-Tse-2/publication/347739970_Assessing_explicit_and_implicit_stereotypes_in_tourism_self-reports_and_implicit_association_test/links/60ad92f1299bf13438e82cbe/Assessing-explicit-and-implicit-stereotypes-in-tourism-self-reports-and-implicit-association-test.pdf">conscious and unconscious stereotypes</a>, travelers may see some people and places as uneducated, dangerous, poor or <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229405">sexual</a>, while hosts may see travelers as rich, ignorant and exploitable. </p>
<p>Going beyond such stereotypes requires that travelers be mindful of behaviors that can add tension to their interactions – knowing conversational topics to avoid, for example, or following local dress codes.</p>
<p>In many parts of the world, those challenges are intensified <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1468797603049658">by the legacy of colonization</a>, which makes it harder for people to meet in authentic ways. Colonial views still influence Western perceptions of nonwhite groups as <a href="https://hrcak.srce.hr/index.php?show=clanak&id_clanak_jezik=80794">exotic</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2012.762688">dangerous</a> and inferior.</p>
<p>Starting to overcome these barriers demands an attitude known as <a href="https://melanietervalon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/CulturalHumility_Tervalon-and-Murray-Garcia-Article.pdf">cultural humility</a>, which is deeper than “cultural competence” – simply knowing about a different culture. Cultural humility helps travelers ask questions like, “I don’t know,” “Please help me understand” or “How should I …?” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a white shirt pulls two small suitcases on a small, crowded pedestrian street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473911/original/file-20220713-16-dhee92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/473911/original/file-20220713-16-dhee92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473911/original/file-20220713-16-dhee92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473911/original/file-20220713-16-dhee92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473911/original/file-20220713-16-dhee92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473911/original/file-20220713-16-dhee92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/473911/original/file-20220713-16-dhee92.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tourists walk in downtown Rome on June 20, 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/VirusOutbreak-TheRebound/1ece9b0908074defa61b5fd16bf0a348/photo?Query=tourists&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=38056&currentItemNo=43">AP Photo/Andrew Medichini</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. Caring</h2>
<p>Caring involves overcoming “<a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781003070672/moral-boundaries-joan-tronto">privileged irresponsibility</a>”: when a traveler does not recognize their own privilege and take responsibility for it, or does not recognize other people’s lack of privilege.</p>
<p>[<em>3 media outlets, 1 religion newsletter.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/this-week-in-religion-76/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=religion-3-in-1">Get stories from The Conversation, AP and RNS.</a>]</p>
<p>Travel becomes irresponsible when tourists ignore injustices and inequities they witness or the way their travels contribute to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/TR-03-2017-0066">unfolding climate crisis</a>. Ethically, “empathy” is not enough; travelers must pursue solidarity, as an act of “<a href="https://www.fortresspress.com/store/product/9781506472065/Just-Traveling">caring with</a>.” That might mean hiring local guides, eating in family-owned restaurants and being mindful of the resources like food and water that they use. </p>
<h2>6. Returning</h2>
<p>Travels do end, and returning home can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.4337/9781786438577.00025">a disorienting experience</a>. </p>
<p>Coming back can cause <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/90015633">reverse culture shock</a> if travelers struggle to readjust. But that shock can diminish as travelers share their experiences with others, stay connected to the places they visited, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijintrel.2016.05.004">deepen their knowledge</a> about the place and culture, anticipate a possible return trip or get involved in causes that they discovered on their trip.</p>
<p>I believe that reflecting on these six phases can invite the kind of mindfulness needed for transformative, ethical travel. And <a href="https://www.scielo.br/j/aabc/a/76CfqdL5pPBZLcQy9FdWwxn/?lang=en&format=html">amid a pandemic</a>, the need for thoughtful travel that prioritizes host communities’ well-being is clear. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-for-transformative-travel-keep-these-six-stages-in-mind-167687">an article originally published on Sept. 28, 2021</a>.</em></p>
<p>
<section class="inline-content">
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/338598/original/file-20200529-78871-1g5gse5.jpg?w=128&h=128">
<div>
<header></header>
<p><a href="https://www.ats.edu/">Vanderbilt University Divinity School is a member of the Association of Theological Schools.</a></p>
<footer>The ATS is a funding partner of The Conversation U.S.</footer>
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</section>
</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/186956/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaco J. Hamman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The pandemic has intensified wanderlust – but also the need for mindful, ethical travel.Jaco J. Hamman, Professor of Religion, Psychology and Culture, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1828502022-05-26T23:59:45Z2022-05-26T23:59:45ZPlanning a holiday? What’s the COVID situation in Bali, Fiji, NZ and the UK?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463250/original/file-20220516-19-z8marc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C8%2C5751%2C3819&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many of us are considering a long-delayed overseas trip. However, despite what our politicians are telling us, the pandemic is not over yet, and there is always the risk you could catch COVID on holiday or just before you depart. </p>
<p>So, here are a few general tips about what you should do to maximise the chance of a safe and enjoyable holiday, and a quick look at the COVID situation in four popular holiday destinations.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-cut-your-chance-of-catching-covid-on-a-plane-wear-a-mask-and-avoid-business-class-180333">Want to cut your chance of catching COVID on a plane? Wear a mask and avoid business class</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Vaccination status</h2>
<p>First and foremost, make sure you are fully vaccinated – that’s three doses for most people, and four for the over-65s and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-25/federal-government-expands-covid-fourth-dose-eligibility/101098304">some vulnerable groups</a>. Two doses are better than nothing, but not good enough against the Omicron variant.</p>
<h2>Health insurance</h2>
<p>Several <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/CHOICE-travel-insurance-guide-COVID-19#:%7E:text=Travel%20insurance%20that%20covers%20cancellation,of%20the%20trip%20with%20you.">insurance companies</a> will cover you against a COVID infection just before you are due to travel, or while you are travelling. Travel insurance is not only advised, it is mandatory in countries such as <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/pacific/fiji">Fiji</a> and <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/asia/indonesia">Indonesia</a>.</p>
<h2>On the plane</h2>
<p>Planes are <a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-cut-your-chance-of-catching-covid-on-a-plane-wear-a-mask-and-avoid-business-class-180333">quite safe</a> since the air gets filtered through HEPA filters. However, you could be very unlucky and have someone sitting close to you who is infectious. So, the best bet is to wear a face mask when not eating and drinking.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463251/original/file-20220516-20-9r1id5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Plane with people in PPE" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463251/original/file-20220516-20-9r1id5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463251/original/file-20220516-20-9r1id5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463251/original/file-20220516-20-9r1id5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463251/original/file-20220516-20-9r1id5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463251/original/file-20220516-20-9r1id5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463251/original/file-20220516-20-9r1id5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463251/original/file-20220516-20-9r1id5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Planes are fairly safe environments due to the HEPA filters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Take alcohol wipes with you and give your tray, seat belt, controller for the entertainment and inside of seat pockets a good wipe down.</p>
<p>When thinking about your destination and the COVID cases there, it’s also important to compare this to the situation in Australia. </p>
<p>Australia’s <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/australia">current cases</a> (seven-day moving average, per million of population) are 1,684 per day, and deaths (seven-day moving average, per <em>ten</em> million of population) are 19.8 per day. Some <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=AUS%7EFJI%7EIDN%7ENZL%7EGBR">84%</a> of the Australian population have completed the initial vaccination schedule. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-yellow-international-arrival-cards-are-getting-a-covid-era-digital-makeover-here-are-5-key-questions-167898">Australia's yellow international arrival cards are getting a COVID-era digital makeover. Here are 5 key questions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Fiji</h2>
<p>In terms of how much COVID is around, Fiji is doing quite well. Average daily case numbers are <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/fiji">13.6</a> per million, tiny compared with the Australian rate. The daily death rate per ten million population is zero. </p>
<p>Current <a href="https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/trials-vaccines-by-country/">vaccines available</a> are AstraZeneca and Moderna, and <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=AUS%7EFJI%7EIDN%7ENZL%7EGBR">70%</a> of Fijians have completed the initial vaccination schedule. There appear to be few current public health <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/pacific/fiji">regulations</a>. Face masks are optional, and social distancing requirements aren’t being enforced. </p>
<p>Given the very low case numbers at the moment, I don’t think this is a major issue. But if you are older or at risk because of health problems, I would still wear a face mask indoors. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.countryreports.org/country/Fiji/health.htm">Health care</a> in Fiji is not up to Australian standards, especially in government-run hospitals. Private hospitals are better, but if you get seriously ill, you’d be better off being medivaced to Australia or New Zealand. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463252/original/file-20220516-22-smtegj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Woman on bridge in rainforest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463252/original/file-20220516-22-smtegj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/463252/original/file-20220516-22-smtegj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463252/original/file-20220516-22-smtegj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463252/original/file-20220516-22-smtegj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463252/original/file-20220516-22-smtegj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463252/original/file-20220516-22-smtegj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/463252/original/file-20220516-22-smtegj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Case numbers in Fiji are quite low.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Bali</h2>
<p>Indonesia is also doing quite well with <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/indonesia">daily cases</a> at 0.98 per million and a death rate of 0.3 per ten million population. However, these data might be <a href="https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-covid-19-data-in-indonesia-are-unreliable-and-how-to-fix-them-157056">under-reported</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/trials-vaccines-by-country/">Current vaccines available</a> are Zifivax, Covovax, Moderna, Pfizer, Convidecia, Sputnik V, Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, KCONVAC, Covilo, and CoronaVac. Covovax is from India, Sputnik V from Russia, and the remaining ones you may not have heard of are from China. There have been some queries about the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02796-w">effectiveness</a> of some Chinese vaccines. </p>
<p>Some <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=AUS%7EFJI%7EIDN%7ENZL%7EGBR">60%</a> of Indonesians have completed the initial vaccination schedule, however, this is likely to be higher in Bali.</p>
<p>Wearing a face mask indoors (for example, in shops) <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/asia/indonesia">is mandatory</a>, and some social distancing and mandatory QR code scanning are in force. Face masks are not required while sitting in a restaurant.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-covid-19-means-the-era-of-ever-cheaper-air-travel-could-be-over-172149">Why COVID-19 means the era of ever cheaper air travel could be over</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Like Fiji, <a href="https://www.countryreports.org/country/Indonesia/health.htm">hospitals</a> in Bali are generally not up to Western standards, although private ones are better than public hospitals. If you get seriously ill, getting medivaced to Australia is probably the best way to go. </p>
<h2>New Zealand</h2>
<p>Across the ditch, the COVID situation is similar to Australia, with <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/new-zealand">1,399</a> cases per day per million population, and 23.4 deaths per ten million population. </p>
<p><a href="https://covid19.trackvaccines.org/trials-vaccines-by-country/">Vaccines authorised</a> are AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax. The <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=AUS%7EFJI%7EIDN%7ENZL%7EGBR">rate of vaccination</a> is also very similar to Australia with 80% having completed the initial vaccination schedule. </p>
<p>New Zealand is a bit more <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/prepare-and-stay-safe/keep-up-healthy-habits/wear-a-face-mask/">sensible</a> than Australia, retaining face mask mandates in retail settings and public spaces such as museums. </p>
<p>The New Zealand health-care system is not <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/best-healthcare-in-the-world">quite</a> up to Australia’s level, but good enough that you don’t have to worry if you have to be hospitalised. The good news is Australia has a reciprocal <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/reciprocal-health-care-agreement-visiting-new-zealand?context=22481">arrangement</a> with New Zealand so there are no costs if you are admitted to a public hospital. </p>
<h2>The United Kingdom</h2>
<p>All public health measures have been removed in the UK. </p>
<p>Reported case numbers are not as dire as Australia and New Zealand, with average daily case numbers at <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom">120 per million</a> population. However, COVID tests are no longer free for most people. While people can buy their own rapid antigen tests, these <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51943612">can’t be logged</a> on the government website. Only those with underlying health conditions can get a free test and must report the results. This means the reported case numbers are likely a big underestimate. This would, in part, explain the UK’s current daily death rate of 12.4 per ten million population. </p>
<p>Interestingly, just about everyone in the UK has <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies">antibodies</a> against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID. Some <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=AUS%7EFJI%7EIDN%7ENZL%7EGBR">73% of the UK population</a> has completed the initial vaccination schedule, considerably lower than Australia. </p>
<p>In terms of quality, the UK health system is <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/best-healthcare-in-the-world">somewhere between</a> Australia and New Zealand. Like New Zealand, Australia has a <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/reciprocal-health-care-agreement-visiting-united-kingdom?context=22481">reciprocal</a> health-care arrangement with free treatment in UK public hospitals.</p>
<h2>In a nutshell</h2>
<p>While Bali and Fiji don’t have much COVID around, their health systems are not as good if you are unlucky enough to get very sick. You’ll be more likely to catch COVID in the UK or New Zealand, but they have good health services if you do.</p>
<p>As for me, I’m masking up and staying in Australia for the next few months!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/182850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Esterman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Knowing whether it’s safe to travel is harder in the age of COVID. This travel guide may help.Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1799412022-03-28T19:14:00Z2022-03-28T19:14:00ZAs borders open and international travel resumes, will New Zealand’s sky-high aviation emissions take off again?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454603/original/file-20220328-25-z439qn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C90%2C5414%2C3407&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Phil Walter/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After two years of entry restrictions, New Zealand is <a href="https://covid19.govt.nz/international-travel/travel-to-new-zealand/when-new-zealand-borders-open/">re-opening its borders</a>. Already, New Zealanders can re-enter the country without quarantine; they will be followed by Australians on April 12 and the rest of the world on May 1. </p>
<p>Families will be able to reunite. Grandparents will be able to visit new grandchildren for the first time. And the tourist industry is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJEuWy_DH80">very keen</a> to get cracking again.</p>
<p>But as international travel resumes, we should make sure flying doesn’t return to 2019 levels. That was incompatible with a safe climate and global emissions targets. At 2019 levels, there would be just <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/uk-jet-zero-consultation-sept21.pdf">ten years</a> of flying left in the carbon budget for 1.5°C. </p>
<p>In 2019, New Zealand aviation emissions were <a href="https://unfccc.int/documents/271550">4.9 million tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide (CO₂), having risen 43% since 2014 to become the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-co2-aviation">sixth highest in the world</a> per capita. At 12% of New Zealand’s total CO₂ emissions, they were a substantial chunk to be dealt with.</p>
<p>Domestic aviation is included in New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme (<a href="https://environment.govt.nz/what-government-is-doing/key-initiatives/ets/">NZETS</a>) and carbon budgets. International aviation emissions are measured but are not included in national targets or regulations. </p>
<p>Last November, at COP26 in Glasgow, New Zealand joined the <a href="https://ukcop26.org/cop-26-declaration-international-aviation-climate-ambition-coalition/">International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition</a> and committed to:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Preparing up-to-date state action plans detailing ambitious and concrete national action to reduce aviation emissions and submitting these plans to ICAO [International Civil Aviation Organization] well in advance of the 41st ICAO assembly.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This assembly of the UN’s <a href="https://www.aviation.govt.nz/about-us/who-we-work-with/international-civil-aviation-organization-icao/">International Civil Aviation Organization</a> will take place in September 2022.</p>
<h2>How to cut aviation emissions</h2>
<p>In a <a href="https://planetaryecology859820530.files.wordpress.com/2022/03/avreview-2.pdf">new report</a>, economist <a href="https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/igps/about-us/staff/senior-associates/paul-callister">Paul Callister</a> and I look at all the options. What would “ambitious and concrete action” to reduce aviation emissions look like for New Zealand?</p>
<p>Change is in the air. There are new proposals for net zero aviation by 2050 from the <a href="https://www.eurocontrol.int/article/eus-fit-55-package-what-does-it-mean-aviation">EU</a>, the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/achieving-net-zero-aviation-by-2050">UK</a>, the <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2021-releases/2021-10-04-03/">International Air Transport Association</a>, the <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">International Energy Association</a>, and <a href="https://p-airnz.com/cms/assets/PDFs/2021-air-new-zealand-sustainability-report.pdf">Air New Zealand</a>.</p>
<p>In New Zealand, a two-seater electric plane with a 130km range crossed the Cook Strait for the first time in November last year. Unfortunately, its larger cousins won’t be here soon enough or in large enough numbers to affect emissions overall.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1455418635770544131"}"></div></p>
<p>Despite the media attention on electric and hydrogen aircraft, they do not feature strongly in New Zealand’s plans. Larger electric aircraft don’t exist <a href="https://blog.planetaryecology.org/2021/10/23/electric-aircraft-coming-soon-to-save-us-or-all-hype-and-greenwash/">yet</a> and we need to act sooner than they will become available.</p>
<h2>Better fuel technology</h2>
<p>Offsetting (by planting trees, for example) is a temporary fix. It <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.664130/full">transfers</a> <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01061-2">risk</a> to the next generation and does not get at the root of the problem, which is burning fossil fuels. Most pathways do not rely on much offsetting.</p>
<p>For the next few decades, emissions will be determined by traffic volumes, efficiency and sustainable aviation fuel.</p>
<p>Efficiency can be encouraged by using the most fuel-efficient planes (and possibly banning the others), filling them as much as possible, flying efficiently and increasing the price of fuel through a carbon charge or a <a href="https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/18372-sustainable-biofuels-mandate-final-policy-design-regulatory-impact-statement-proactiverelease-pdf">sustainable fuel mandate</a>, or both.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-tourism-can-use-the-disruption-of-covid-19-to-drive-sustainable-change-and-be-more-competitive-155370">NZ tourism can use the disruption of COVID-19 to drive sustainable change — and be more competitive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Sustainable aviation fuel is the main technological solution on the table. By 2035, New Zealand could conceivably build two NZ$520 million <a href="https://www.mpi.govt.nz/dmsdocument/41824/direct">wood-based biofuel</a> plants, producing 57 million litres a year each, and one 100MW <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/Sustainable-aviation-fuel-feedstock-eu-mar2021.pdf">e-fuel plant</a> producing 40 million litres a year. Together they would provide 8% of New Zealand’s jet fuel at 2019 levels of demand.</p>
<p>However, neither of these technologies are yet in commercial use; the first <a href="https://www.lanzajet.com/where-we-operate/#georgia">demonstration</a> <a href="https://eng.heroya-industripark.no/latest-news/starting-construction-of-norway-s-first-e-fuel-production-at-heroeya">plants</a> are only now under construction. The uncertainties are large.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A rendering of a 10-million-litre e-fuel plant which will soon start construction in Herøya, Norway." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454297/original/file-20220325-21-1hm7j8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454297/original/file-20220325-21-1hm7j8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454297/original/file-20220325-21-1hm7j8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454297/original/file-20220325-21-1hm7j8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454297/original/file-20220325-21-1hm7j8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454297/original/file-20220325-21-1hm7j8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454297/original/file-20220325-21-1hm7j8k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A rendering of a 10-million-litre e-fuel plant which will soon start construction in Herøya, Norway. E-fuels are produced from water, air-sourced carbon dioxide and renewable electricity. Unless subsidised, e-fuels raise ticket prices while reducing carbon dioxide and other emissions at the source.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nordic Electrofuels</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Traffic volumes are affected by price and regulation. Industry projections of very high growth (up to 120% by 2050) are not compatible with the Paris Agreement. </p>
<p>The present free ride for international aviation (no GST, no carbon charge, no fuel tax) is an obstacle. But now that the EU is considering a <a href="https://www.airport-technology.com/uncategorised/european-commission-aviation-pollution-tax-proposal-fuels-debate">tax on jet fuel</a>, this could change.</p>
<h2>Curbing frequent flying</h2>
<p>Flying less is the main remaining tool in the toolkit. Air travel is strikingly unevenly distributed. <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/unequal-distribution-of-household-carbon-footprints-in-europe-and-its-link-to-sustainability/F1ED4F705AF1C6C1FCAD477398353DC2">In Europe</a>, 90% of households have aviation emissions of 0.1 tonnes of CO₂ per person per year (equivalent to one Auckland–Sydney return trip every four years); 9% emit 0.8 tonnes (Auckland–LA every two years); and the top 1%, 22.6 tonnes (Auckland–London six times a year).</p>
<p>So less frequent flying, especially by the hyper-mobile, has to be part of the solution. Non-flyers cannot reduce their aviation emissions. The <a href="https://www.takethejump.org">Jump</a> campaign asks people to limit flights to one 1500km return flight every three years, a level derived from a <a href="https://c40-production-images.s3.amazonaws.com/other_uploads/images/2270_C40_CBE_MainReport_250719.original.pdf">study</a> of urban lifestyles compatible with 1.5°C.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nz-tourism-can-use-the-disruption-of-covid-19-to-drive-sustainable-change-and-be-more-competitive-155370">NZ tourism can use the disruption of COVID-19 to drive sustainable change — and be more competitive</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The natural experiment of the COVID pandemic prompts the question of how essential such frequent flying is to well-being. </p>
<p>Stats New Zealand <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/well-being">monitors</a> well-being following international guidelines. While 81% of the population reported high overall life satisfaction in 2018, this rose to 86% in 2021. People adopted substitutes for international travel, including telecommunications, domestic tourism and local tourism.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1238289474485776384"}"></div></p>
<p>The economy also <a href="https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/gross-domestic-product-gdp">grew</a>, up 3.4% from 2019 to 2021. </p>
<p>However, there are confounding factors, namely the government stimulus, social solidarity and knowledge of the health risks of travel.</p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.creds.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/CREDS-curbing-excess-Feb2022.pdf">UK study</a> considers the role of curbing excess energy consumption in a fair transition. After comparing ten possible definitions of “excess”, they conclude that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>excess is whatever people can agree it is, based on ideas of “fairness” and “just” levels of consumption that can be rationalised, defended and justified to others … any policies that are used to target excess consumption and excessive consumers must be similarly reasonable and justifiable, based on the principles of deliberative democracy and exploring options, impacts and fairness with members of the public.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Two key events of the past decade reinforce the urgency of the situation. The first is the proven ability of the New Zealand aviation industry to increase emissions at a staggering rate when unregulated, as observed from 2014 to 2019. The second is COVID. Ensuring that aviation emissions remain permanently well below 2019 levels will make the longer-term task significantly easier.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179941/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Before the pandemic, New Zealand’s emissions from domestic flights were 4.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, up by 43% since 2014 and the sixth highest in the world per capita.Robert McLachlan, Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1719402021-12-19T19:54:01Z2021-12-19T19:54:01ZBlue-sky thinking: net-zero aviation is more than a flight of fantasy<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437680/original/file-20211215-13-1ahyjhw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=332%2C1077%2C5658%2C2910&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As international air travel rebounds after COVID-19 restrictions, greenhouse gas emissions from aviation are expected to rise dramatically – and with it, scrutiny of the industry’s environmental credentials. </p>
<p>Aviation emissions have almost <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2253626-aviations-contribution-to-global-warming-has-doubled-since-2000/">doubled since 2000</a> and in 2018 reached <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-aviation">one billion tonnes</a>. Climate Action Tracker rates the industry’s climate performance as <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/sectors/aviation/">critically insufficient</a>.</p>
<p>As the climate change threat rapidly worsens, can aviation make the transition to a low-carbon future – and perhaps even reach net-zero emissions? The significant technological and energy disruption on the horizon for the industry suggests such a future is possible.</p>
<p>But significant challenges remain. Achieving a net-zero aviation sector will require a huge collaborative effort from industry and government – and consumers can also play their part.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nW6J989UBhA?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Build back better</h2>
<p>The aviation sector’s progress in cutting emissions has been disappointing to date. For example, in February last year, <a href="https://theconversation.com/major-airlines-say-theyre-acting-on-climate-change-our-research-reveals-how-little-theyve-achieved-127800">research</a> on the world’s largest 58 airlines found even the best-performing ones were not doing anywhere near enough to cut emissions.</p>
<p>Most recently, at the COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow, the industry merely reasserted a commitment to a plan known as the <a href="https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Pages/default.aspx">Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation</a>.</p>
<p>The scheme relies on carbon offsetting, which essentially pays another actor to reduce emissions on its behalf at lowest cost, and doesn’t lead to absolute emissions reduction in aviation. The scheme also encourages alternative cleaner fuels, but the level of emissions reduction between fuels varies considerably.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/major-airlines-say-theyre-acting-on-climate-change-our-research-reveals-how-little-theyve-achieved-127800">Major airlines say they're acting on climate change. Our research reveals how little they've achieved</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Governments have generally failed to provide strong leadership to help the aviation sector to reduce emissions. This in part is because pollution from international aviation is not counted in the emissions ledger of any country, leaving little incentive for governments to act. Aviation is also a complex policy space to navigate, involving multiple actors around the world. However, COVID-19 has significantly jolted the aviation and travel sector, presenting an opportunity to build back better – and differently.</p>
<p>Griffith University recently held a <a href="https://www.griffith.edu.au/institute-tourism/our-research/rethinking-aviation/aviation-reimagined-2021?fbclid=IwAR3Hd8xLJkEWMaHae8sho1MiSfV6TzbPbf30vo2fbJ0CHMg-xdvywNCmZbU">webinar series</a> on decarbonising aviation, involving industry, academic and government experts. The sessions explored the most promising policy and practical developments for net-zero aviation, as well as the most significant hurdles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="passengers queue at airport" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437570/original/file-20211214-25-1rc1cnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437570/original/file-20211214-25-1rc1cnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437570/original/file-20211214-25-1rc1cnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437570/original/file-20211214-25-1rc1cnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437570/original/file-20211214-25-1rc1cnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437570/original/file-20211214-25-1rc1cnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437570/original/file-20211214-25-1rc1cnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">COVID-19 has significantly jolted the aviation sector.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steven Senne/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Nations soaring ahead</h2>
<p>Some governments are leading the way in driving change in the aviation industry. For example, as a result of <a href="https://www.government.se/495f60/contentassets/883ae8e123bc4e42aa8d59296ebe0478/the-swedish-climate-policy-framework.pdf">government policy</a> to make Sweden climate-neutral by 2045, the Swedish aviation industry developed a <a href="https://fossilfrittsverige.se/en/roadmap/the-aviation-industry/#:%7E:text=The%20strategic%20objective%20for%202030,line%20with%20the%20Government%27s%20goals">roadmap</a> for fossil-free domestic flights by 2030, and for all flights originating from Sweden to be fossil-free by 2045. </p>
<p>Achieving fossil-free flights requires replacing jet fuel with alternatives such as sustainable fuels or electric and hydrogen propulsion.</p>
<p>The European Union plans to <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_21_3662">end current tax exemptions</a> for jet fuel and introduce measures to <a href="https://www.eurocontrol.int/article/eus-fit-55-package-what-does-it-mean-aviation">accelerate</a> the uptake of sustainable fuels.</p>
<p>The United Kingdom is finalising its strategy for <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/achieving-net-zero-aviation-by-2050">net-zero aviation</a> by 2050 and a public body known as UK Research and Innovation is <a href="https://www.ukri.org/our-work/our-main-funds/industrial-strategy-challenge-fund/future-of-mobility/future-flight-challenge/">supporting</a> the development of new aviation technologies, including hybrid-electric regional aircraft.</p>
<p>Australia lacks a strategic framework or emissions reduction targets to help transition the aviation industry. The <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/infrastructure-transport-vehicles/aviation/emerging-aviation-technologies/drones/eatp">Emerging Aviation Technology Program</a> seeks to reduce carbon emissions, among other goals. However, it appears to have a strong focus on freight-carrying drones and <a href="https://www.greenbiz.com/article/7-urban-air-mobility-companies-watch">urban air vehicles</a>, rather than fixed wing aircraft.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-1940s-treaty-set-airlines-on-a-path-to-high-emissions-and-low-regulation-148818">How a 1940s treaty set airlines on a path to high emissions and low regulation</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="plane taking off" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437569/original/file-20211214-13-lsswi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437569/original/file-20211214-13-lsswi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437569/original/file-20211214-13-lsswi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437569/original/file-20211214-13-lsswi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437569/original/file-20211214-13-lsswi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437569/original/file-20211214-13-lsswi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437569/original/file-20211214-13-lsswi6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some governments are leading the way in driving change in the aviation industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Zhao Xiaojun/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Building tomorrow’s aircraft</h2>
<p>Low-emissions aircraft technology has developed substantially in the last five years. Advancements include electric and hybrid aircraft (powered by hydrogen or a battery) – such as that being developed by <a href="https://www.airbus.com/en/innovation/zero-emission/hydrogen/zeroe">Airbus</a>, <a href="https://www.rolls-royce.com/innovation/accel.aspx">Rolls Royce</a> and <a href="https://www.zeroavia.com/">Zero Avia</a> – as well as <a href="https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2021-07-14-Boeing-and-SkyNRG-Partner-to-Scale-Sustainable-Aviation-Fuels-Globally">sustainable aviation fuels</a>.</p>
<p>Each of these technologies can reduce carbon emissions, but only battery and hydrogen electric options significantly reduce non-CO₂ climate impacts such as oxides of nitrogen (NOx), soot particles, oxidised sulphur species, and water vapour.</p>
<p>For electric aircraft to be net-zero emissions, they must be powered by renewable energy sources. As well as being better for the planet, electric and hydrogen aircraft are likely to have <a href="https://www.zeroavia.com/">lower</a> energy and maintenance <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/electric-aviation-could-be-closer-than-you-think/">costs</a> than conventional aircraft.</p>
<p>This decade, we expect a rapid emergence of electric and hybrid aircraft for short-haul, commuter, air taxi, helicopter and general flights. Increased use of sustainable aviation fuel is also likely.</p>
<p>Although electric planes are flying, commercial operations are not expected until at least 2023 as the aircraft must undergo rigorous testing, safety and certification. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A solar powered aircraft prototype flies in mountainous terrain" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437571/original/file-20211214-23-1clsep1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/437571/original/file-20211214-23-1clsep1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437571/original/file-20211214-23-1clsep1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437571/original/file-20211214-23-1clsep1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437571/original/file-20211214-23-1clsep1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437571/original/file-20211214-23-1clsep1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/437571/original/file-20211214-23-1clsep1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric planes exist, but the route to commercialisation is long. Pictured: a solar powered aircraft prototype flies near the France-Italy border.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Laurent Gillieron/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Overcoming turbulence</h2>
<p>Despite real efforts by some industry leaders and governments towards making aviation a net-zero industry, significant strategic and practical challenges remain. Conversion to the commercial mainstream is not happening quickly enough.</p>
<p>To help decarbonise aviation in Australia, industry and government should develop a clear strategy for emissions reduction with interim targets for 2030 and 2040. This would keep the industry competitive and on track for net-zero emissions by 2050. </p>
<p>Strategic attention and action is also needed to:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>advance aircraft and fuel innovation and development</p></li>
<li><p>update regulatory and certification processes for new types of aircraft</p></li>
<li><p>enhance production and deployment of new aviation fuels and technologies</p></li>
<li><p>reduce fuel demand through efficiencies in route and air traffic management</p></li>
<li><p>create “greener” airport operations and infrastructure</p></li>
<li><p>build capability with pilots and aerospace engineers. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The emissions created by flights and itineraries can <a href="https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/variation-aviation-emissions-itinerary-jul2021-1.pdf">vary substantially</a>. Consumers can do their part by opting for the lowest-impact option, and offsetting the emissions their flight creates via a <a href="https://theconversation.com/flying-home-for-christmas-carbon-offsets-are-important-but-they-wont-fix-plane-pollution-89148">credible program</a>. Consumers can also choose to fly only with airlines and operators that have committed to net-zero emissions. </p>
<p>Net-zero aviation need not remain a flight of fantasy, but to make it a reality, emissions reduction must be at the heart of aviation’s pandemic bounce-back.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reducing-air-travel-by-small-amounts-each-year-could-level-off-the-climate-impact-171184">Reducing air travel by small amounts each year could level off the climate impact</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Commercial flights could one day be propelled by sustainable fuels, renewable energy or hydrogen propulsion – but big challenges remain.Emma Rachel Whittlesea, Senior Research Fellow, Griffith UniversityTim Ryley, Professor and Head of Griffith Aviation, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1711932021-11-21T13:20:55Z2021-11-21T13:20:55ZFear of travelling: Canadians need to put travel risk into perspective<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431577/original/file-20211111-27-3s7opj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C17%2C5860%2C3901&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Media coverage of public health advisories has caused anxiety in many citizens who may deem tourism activities too risky during the pandemic.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 175px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/fear-of-travelling--canadians-need-to-put-travel-risk-into-perspective" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>The pandemic hit nearly two years ago, and since then Canadians’ fear of <a href="https://www.straight.com/living/covid-19-survey-reveals-almost-two-thirds-of-canadians-fear-plane-travel-live-events">travel has been a constant theme</a>. Tuning into daily COVID-19 briefings likely <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102258">contributed to this heightened sense of fear</a>. </p>
<p>In March 2020, the federal government <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-travel-international-covid-advisory-1.6220428">issued a blanket travel warning, which was only lifted</a> on Oct. 22, 2021. As recently as May 2021, <a href="https://www.wbfo.org/binational/2021-05-14/ontario-premier-blames-covid-variants-that-passed-too-easily-through-our-borders">Ontario Premier Doug Ford blamed travel and borders</a> for a rise in cases when evidence pointed to there being <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/more-than-80-per-cent-of-covid-19-cases-are-caused-by-community-exposures-statcan-1.5334236">other causes</a> for case increases like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1048291120974358">lack of proper PPE</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.25318/1310077401-eng">community spread</a>, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/toronto/article-data-show-poverty-overcrowded-housing-connected-to-covid-19-rates/">overcrowded housing and poverty</a>.</p>
<p>The “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1533-8525.1997.tb00758.x">problem frame</a>” here is how certain messages shared during the pandemic have helped <a href="https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2021/02/01/the-government-needs-to-stop-distracting-us-with-the-irrational-fear-of-travel.html">maintain a fear of travel over time</a>. </p>
<p>As researchers whose work looks at travel and tourism, we were curious about the impact of COVID-19 briefings and the way media reported them on the industry. We think it’s time to put fear into perspective for the traveller.</p>
<h2>Discourses of blame and shame</h2>
<p>An <a href="https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1027&context=ttracanada_2021_conference">analysis</a> — published as part of the <a href="https://scholarworks.umass.edu/ttracanada_2021_conference">Travelling Towards Tomorrow Together: Travel and Tourism Research Association Canada conference</a> — of Canadian online news, noted how the media has perpetuated a fear of travel through narratives that emphasize safety, mistrust and guilt. </p>
<p>Reading, listening and watching the news has caused anxiety in many citizens who deem tourism activities <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/society/covid-19-has-drastically-affected-canadian-travel-spending/">too risky during the pandemic</a>. </p>
<p>Some news outlets reported on <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1007%2Fs10900-021-00971-8">inconsistent health-related messaging</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/explainer-travel-bans-quebec-1.5885323">the dangers of travel</a>, while others reported on an industry-sponsored study that showed there was little <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/flying-during-the-pandemic-new-reports-paint-differing-pictures-of-covid-19-danger-1.5162942">flying risk</a> if preventative measures were in place. This caused confusion. </p>
<p>These varying messages and subsequent reporting aren’t a total surprise. Especially considering how at the start of the pandemic, we faced an unknown virus, with minimal knowledge. Tests, treatments and prevention strategies have evolved, but different phases of the pandemic — and health-related messaging and media coverage — highlight how risk changed and evolved over time.</p>
<p>Regardless, media coverage of <a href="https://www.macleans.ca/longforms/covid-19-pandemic-canada-year-one/">changing government travel restrictions</a> and differing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/27/science/face-mask-guidelines-timeline.html">health and safety guidelines</a> — like masking — exacerbated a <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/editorsblog/editor-blog-trust-1.5936535">discourse of mistrust</a> in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/heapro/daaa140">media and in government officials</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A flight status display at an airport shows " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431578/original/file-20211111-21-r3mrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431578/original/file-20211111-21-r3mrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431578/original/file-20211111-21-r3mrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431578/original/file-20211111-21-r3mrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431578/original/file-20211111-21-r3mrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431578/original/file-20211111-21-r3mrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431578/original/file-20211111-21-r3mrak.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Avoiding leisure travel for the past 18 months has led to a significant impact on our mental well-being.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How Canadians feel about travel</h2>
<p>An <a href="https://ca.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/canadians-anxious-about-travel-support-closed-borders-and-vaccine-passports.html">April 2021 survey</a> found that 82 per cent of Canadians perceived taking a vacation as a large or moderate risk. </p>
<p>Feelings of guilt and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/rethinking-travel-shaming-pandemic-trnd/index.html">travel shaming</a> influenced how Canadians <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/TR-05-2020-0195">felt about travelling</a> — many likely <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/45-28-0001/2020001/article/00051-eng.htm">thought they will be judged</a> for putting others at risk. </p>
<p>Politicians <a href="https://canadiantravelnews.ca/2021/03/05/travel-shaming-the-new-trend/">shamed Canadians who chose to travel</a> whether it was early in the pandemic (before any travel restrictions were in place), or later when tourism-related businesses advertised cheap domestic flights and trips. </p>
<p>When the government <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/transport-canada/news/2021/01/government-of-canada-introduces-further-restrictions-on-international-travel.html">banned flights</a> to “sun destinations” in January 2021, many Canadians took it to heart and stayed home. Just four months later, messaging from the travel and tourism sector surfaced about it being up to Canadians to <a href="https://www.cp24.com/lifestyle/travel/save-summer-canadian-tourism-business-have-modest-expectations-ahead-of-crucial-season-1.5375161?">save summer tourism</a>. </p>
<p>After the Canadian government <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-travel-international-covid-advisory-1.6220428">lifted global travel restrictions</a> on non-essential travel with <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/sandramacgregor/2021/10/22/canada-finally-ends-advisory-against-non-essential-travel-begun-in-march-2020/?">no press release</a>, the media reported on the problem frame. </p>
<p>Stories highlighted how “mindful” Canadians should be when <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/canadians-anxious-to-travel-south-this-winter-face-more-complex-travel-restrictions-1.5639560">travelling south</a> and some shared messages from epidemiologists that <a href="https://twitter.com/theagenda/status/1453869186145558530?s=27">we should keep our foot on the brake of travel</a> to keep incident rates low, while others focused on Canadians return to travel <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2021/10/31/trouble-in-paradise-for-struggling-caribbean-islands-a-prayer-for-return-of-canadian-tourists.html">helping struggling Caribbean islands</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canada-s-travel-rules-punitive-for-middle-class-families-888893039.html">Canadian Travel and Tourism Roundtable</a> — a group of Canadian tourism and travel businesses hoping to “reopen the economy” — recently called on the government to remove “non-science-based obstacles to international travel, such as expensive pre-departure PCR tests for fully vaccinated travellers, that disproportionately impact average Canadian families.”</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young woman wearing a mask takes pictures in Barcelona, Spain. A building that looks like an old church is visible in the background." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431579/original/file-20211111-27-1jjigk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431579/original/file-20211111-27-1jjigk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431579/original/file-20211111-27-1jjigk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431579/original/file-20211111-27-1jjigk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431579/original/file-20211111-27-1jjigk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431579/original/file-20211111-27-1jjigk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/431579/original/file-20211111-27-1jjigk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canadians are among the most hesitant when considering an international leisure trip.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Perceived risk</h2>
<p>There are nuances to how <a href="https://doi.org/10.1300/J073v20n01_02">different cultures</a> perceive travel risk. Canadians normally <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2021.1937450">find travel less risky than Americans and Australians</a>. However, a recent study about post-pandemic travel showed that Canadians were <a href="https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1008&context=ttracanada_2021_conference">more cautious</a> to travel than their American or European counterparts. </p>
<p>A columnist in the <em>Toronto Sun</em>, called Canadians out for being “<a href="https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/furey-while-americans-embrace-re-openings-canadians-remain-unjustifiably-afraid">unjustifiably afraid</a>” of travel. Travelling and flying always present a risk, but that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa212">risk is low</a> if mitigation measures and infection prevention are observed.</p>
<p>It’s important to note however, that after Alberta lifted its restrictions <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/alberta-fourth-wave-surge-hospitals-icu-covid-19-1.6197263">they faced a devastating surge in cases</a>. </p>
<p>Canadians are among the most hesitant when considering an international leisure trip, according to a <a href="https://www.visitbritain.org/sites/default/files/vb-corporate/international_covid-19_sentiment_research_wave_3_report_final.pdf">survey conducted by TCI Research</a>. The majority of them (81 per cent) have also paid close attention to media during the pandemic says <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/surveying-canadians-trust-media">an Ipsos survey</a> — actively seeking risk information which influences their <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.655860">perception and knowledge</a>.</p>
<h2>Managing travel risk and media messages</h2>
<p>Canadians perceive travel risk subjectively and reduce risk by remaining cautious and choosing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1829571">not to travel</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.destinationcanada.com/sites/default/files/archive/1504-Canadian%20Resident%20Sentiment%20-%20November%202%2C%202021/Resident%20Sentiment%20Tracking_November%202_EN.pdf">resident sentiment study</a> by Destination Canada shows that in recent months, feelings of safety have decreased or remained unchanged across five Canadian provinces. </p>
<p>But now that the vast majority of <a href="https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccination-coverage/">Canadians are vaccinated</a>, and many tourism <a href="https://www.destinationcanada.com/sites/default/files/archive/1247-Rebuilding%20Traveller%20Confidence%3A%20The%20importance%20of%20keeping%20safety%20top%20of%20mind%20and%20in%20plain%20sight/SME-Guide_EN-Nov24.pdf">businesses</a> and <a href="https://travel.destinationcanada.com/covid-19-traveller-guidance">destinations</a> have implemented careful safety protocols for travellers, those feelings of safety should change. </p>
<p>It is time for Canadians to mitigate travel risks by adopting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2020.100502">objective risk management strategies</a>. </p>
<p>The risk of getting COVID-19 will not be zero, it will likely never be zero. People must continue to assess risk based on science, wear masks in public and pay attention in crowded areas. When vaccinated, Canadians should feel more comfortable travelling because travel professionals are working to <a href="https://wttc.org/COVID-19/SafeTravels-Global-Protocols-Stamp">keep us safe</a>, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/vaccines/life-after-vaccination.html">there is life after vaccination</a>.</p>
<p>Despite it being important to respect countries’ travel advisories to prevent the spread of COVID-19, avoiding leisure travel for the past 18 months has led to a significant impact on our <a href="https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3141609/how-covid-19-travel-restrictions-impact-your-mental">mental well-being</a> and <a href="https://wttc.org/News-Article/WTTC-Economic-Trends-Report-reveals-COVID-19s-dramatic-impact-on-Travel-Tourism-around-the-world">a loss of jobs</a> across the tourism industry. </p>
<p>Now that restrictions are lifting and leisure travel is resuming, we need to be reminded that travel has <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F0047287513496477">positive effects on our health and wellness</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171193/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Now that restrictions are lifting and leisure travel is resuming, we need to be reminded that travel has positive effects on our health and wellness.Kelley A. McClinchey, Teaching Faculty, Geography and Environmental Studies, Wilfrid Laurier UniversityFrédéric Dimanche, Professor and Director, Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1676872021-09-28T11:57:43Z2021-09-28T11:57:43ZLooking for transformative travel? Keep these six stages in mind<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/422143/original/file-20210920-17-1mnr3ux.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C31%2C2974%2C1993&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indonesia has reopened tourism after intensified vaccination campaigns have helped control the spread of COVID-19.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/tourists-visit-one-of-the-largest-hindu-temples-in-the-news-photo/1235376076?adppopup=true">Feature China/Barcroft Media via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>An updated version of this article was published on July 14, 2022. <a href="https://theconversation.com/itching-to-get-away-this-summer-remember-the-six-stages-of-transformative-travel-186956">Read it here</a>.</em></p>
<p>After a cooped-up year, Americans are hungry to travel. Passport offices <a href="https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/passports/how-apply/processing-times.html">are overwhelmed</a> with applications. In July, airlines scheduled and operated <a href="https://www.bts.gov/newsroom/air-travel-consumer-report-july-2021-numbers">the highest number of flights</a> since the pandemic began, according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/22/national-parks-are-booming-that-may-ruin-your-next-trip.html">Record numbers</a> of travelers visited the U.S. national parks this summer, after <a href="https://www.nps.gov/subjects/socialscience/annual-visitation-highlights.htm">a nearly 28% drop</a> due to the pandemic. </p>
<p>But why do we travel in the first place? What is the allure of the open road? </p>
<p>As a professor of <a href="https://divinity.vanderbilt.edu/people/bio/jaco-hamman">religion, psychology and culture</a>, I study experiences that lie at the intersection of all three. And in my <a href="https://www.fortresspress.com/store/product/9781506472065/Just-Traveling">research on travel</a>, I’m struck by its unsolvable paradoxes: Many of us seek to get away, in order to be present; we speed to destinations, in order to slow down; we may care about the environment, but still leave carbon footprints. </p>
<p>Ultimately, many people hope to return transformed. Travel <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/02508281.2017.1292177">is often viewed</a> as what anthropologists call a “<a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Arnold-van-Gennep">rite of passage</a>”: structured rituals in which individuals separate themselves from their familiar surroundings, undergo change and return rejuvenated or “reborn.”</p>
<p>But travelers are not just concerned with themselves. The desire to explore may be a defining human trait, as I argue <a href="https://www.fortresspress.com/store/product/9781506472065/Just-Traveling">in my latest book</a>, but the ability to do it is a privilege that can <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.11.002">come at a cost</a> to host communities. Increasingly, the tourism industry and scholars alike are interested in <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cog/tri/2012/00000016/F0020003/art00003">ethical travel</a>, which minimizes visitors’ harm on the places and people they encounter. </p>
<p>The media inundate tourists with advice and enticements about where to travel and what to do there. But in order to meet the deeper goals of transformative, ethical travel, the “why” and “how” demand deeper discernment.</p>
<p>In writing “<a href="https://www.fortresspress.com/store/product/9781506472065/Just-Traveling">Just Traveling</a>: God, Leaving Home, and a Spirituality for the Road,” I studied travel stories in sacred scriptures and researched findings from psychologists, sociologists, ethicists, economists and tourism scholars. I argue that meaningful travel is best understood not as a three-stage rite but as a six-phase practice, based on core human experiences. These phases can repeat and overlap within the same journey, just as adventures twist and turn.</p>
<h2>1. Anticipating</h2>
<p>Traveling begins long before departure, as we research and plan. But anticipation is more than logistics. The Dutch aptly call it “voorpret”: literally, <a href="https://www.wordsense.eu/">the pleasure before</a>.</p>
<p>How and what people anticipate in any given situation has the power to shape their experience, for better or worse – even when it comes to prejudice. Psychology experiments, for example, have shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000899">when children anticipate greater cooperation between groups</a>, it can reduce their bias in favor of their own group.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://iep.utm.edu/phenom/">phenomenology</a>, a branch of philosophy that studies human experience and consciousness, emphasizes that <a href="http://ummoss.org/gall17varela.pdf">anticipation is also “empty”</a>: our conscious intentions and expectations of what’s to come could be fulfilled or dashed by a future moment. </p>
<p>With that in mind, travelers should try to remain open to uncertainty and even disappointment.</p>
<h2>2. Leaving</h2>
<p>Leaving can awaken deep emotions that are tied to our earliest experiences of separation. The attachment styles psychologists study in infants, which shape how secure people feel in their relationships, <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-attachment-and-how-does-it-affect-our-relationships-120503">continue to shape us as adults</a>. These experiences can also affect how comfortable people feel <a href="https://www.proquest.com/openview/cdd5594c53a7864881fb71e54a7422f1/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=1819046">exploring new experiences</a> and leaving home, which can affect how they travel.</p>
<p>Some travelers leave with excitement, while others experience <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520966392">hesitation or guilt</a> before the relief and excitement of departure. Mindfulness about the stages of travel can help people <a href="https://web.a.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=1931311X&asa=Y&AN=31381043&h=nduDC2UXNGxscORELrBj%2fjZ6b4Xdbo4r5mkTwNhY2n2D7Oi0KAOPOw%2fsqhqshijmc4%2bMd%2fLjR2%2b3rONsdCopzg%3d%3d&crl=c&resultNs=AdminWebAuth&resultLocal=ErrCrlNotAuth&crlhashurl=login.aspx%3fdirect%3dtrue%26profile%3dehost%26scope%3dsite%26authtype%3dcrawler%26jrnl%3d1931311X%26asa%3dY%26AN%3d31381043">manage anxiety</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Mask-clad passengers pass through an airport arrival hall in Lisbon, Portugal in September 2021 amid the COVID-19 pandemic." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423194/original/file-20210924-46597-1r365j1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/423194/original/file-20210924-46597-1r365j1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423194/original/file-20210924-46597-1r365j1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423194/original/file-20210924-46597-1r365j1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423194/original/file-20210924-46597-1r365j1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423194/original/file-20210924-46597-1r365j1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/423194/original/file-20210924-46597-1r365j1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Travel has picked up since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. For many people, taking a trip prompts anxiety as well as excitement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/mask-clad-travelers-and-people-waiting-for-arriving-news-photo/1338516440?adppopup=true">Horacio Villalobos/Corbis News via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Surrendering</h2>
<p>Travelers cannot control their journey: A flight is canceled, or a vehicle breaks down; the weather report predicts sunshine, but it rains for days on end. To some extent, they have to surrender to the unknown.</p>
<p>Modern Western cultures tend to see “surrendering” as something negative – as hoisting a white flag. But as a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00107530.1990.10746643">therapeutic concept</a>, surrendering helps people let go of inhibiting habits, discover a sense of wholeness and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1215/10407391-2005-006">experience togetherness</a> with others. The perfectionist learns that a changed itinerary doesn’t mean a diminished travel experience and lets go of their fear of failure. The person with a strong sense of independence grows in vulnerability as they receive care from strangers.</p>
<p>In fact, some psychological theories hold that the self longs for surrender, in the sense of liberation: letting down its defensive barriers and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0022167820975636">finding freedom</a> from attempts to control one’s surroundings. Embracing that view can help travelers cope with the reality that things may not go according to plan.</p>
<h2>4. Meeting</h2>
<p>Meeting, traveling’s fourth phase, is the invitation to discover oneself and others anew. </p>
<p>All cultures have unconscious “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Location-of-Culture/Bhabha/p/book/9780415336390">rules of recognition</a>,” their own ingrained customs and ways of thinking, making it more difficult to forge cross-cultural connections. Carrying <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Serene-Tse-2/publication/347739970_Assessing_explicit_and_implicit_stereotypes_in_tourism_self-reports_and_implicit_association_test/links/60ad92f1299bf13438e82cbe/Assessing-explicit-and-implicit-stereotypes-in-tourism-self-reports-and-implicit-association-test.pdf">conscious and unconscious stereotypes</a>, travelers may see some people and places as uneducated, dangerous, poor or <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229405">sexual</a>, while hosts may see travelers as rich, ignorant and exploitable. </p>
<p>Going beyond such stereotypes requires that travelers be mindful of behaviors that can add tension to their interactions – knowing conversational topics to avoid, for example, or following local dress codes.</p>
<p>In many parts of the world, those challenges are intensified <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1468797603049658">by the legacy of colonization</a>, which makes it harder for people to meet in authentic ways. Colonial views still influence Western perceptions of nonwhite groups as <a href="https://hrcak.srce.hr/index.php?show=clanak&id_clanak_jezik=80794">exotic</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2012.762688">dangerous</a> and inferior.</p>
<p>Starting to overcome these barriers demands an attitude known as <a href="https://melanietervalon.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/CulturalHumility_Tervalon-and-Murray-Garcia-Article.pdf">cultural humility</a>, which is deeper than “cultural competence” – simply knowing about a different culture. Cultural humility helps travelers ask questions like, “I don’t know,” “Please help me understand” or “How should I…” </p>
<h2>5. Caring</h2>
<p>Caring involves overcoming “<a href="https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.4324/9781003070672/moral-boundaries-joan-tronto">privileged irresponsibility</a>”: when a traveler does not recognize their own privilege and take responsibility for it, or does not recognize other people’s lack of privilege.</p>
<p>[<em>3 media outlets, 1 religion newsletter.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/this-week-in-religion-76/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=religion-3-in-1">Get stories from The Conversation, AP and RNS.</a>]</p>
<p>Travel becomes irresponsible when tourists ignore injustices and inequities they witness or the way their travels contribute to the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/TR-03-2017-0066">unfolding climate crisis</a>. Ethically, “empathy” is not enough; travelers must pursue solidarity, as an act of “<a href="https://www.fortresspress.com/store/product/9781506472065/Just-Traveling">caring with</a>.” That might mean hiring local guides, eating in family-owned restaurants and being mindful of the resources like food and water that they use. </p>
<h2>6. Returning</h2>
<p>Travels do end, and returning home can be <a href="https://doi.org/10.4337/9781786438577.00025">a disorienting experience</a>. </p>
<p>Coming back can cause <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/90015633">reverse culture shock</a> if travelers struggle to readjust. But that shock can diminish as travelers share their experiences with others, stay connected to the places they visited, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijintrel.2016.05.004">deepen their knowledge</a> about the place and culture, anticipate a possible return trip or get involved in causes that they discovered on their trip.</p>
<p>I believe that reflecting on these six phases can invite the kind of mindfulness needed for transformative, ethical travel. And <a href="https://www.scielo.br/j/aabc/a/76CfqdL5pPBZLcQy9FdWwxn/?lang=en&format=html">amid a pandemic</a>, the need for thoughtful travel that prioritizes host communities’ well-being is clear. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.ats.edu/">Vanderbilt University Divinity School is a member of the Association of Theological Schools.</a></p>
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</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167687/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jaco J. Hamman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>COVID-19 has intensified wanderlust – but also the need for mindful, ethical travel.Jaco J. Hamman, Professor of Religion, Psychology and Culture, Vanderbilt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1678982021-09-15T07:07:36Z2021-09-15T07:07:36ZAustralia’s yellow international arrival cards are getting a COVID-era digital makeover. Here are 5 key questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421275/original/file-20210915-17-1uxd85g.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> </figcaption></figure><p>As Australia prepares to lift the ban on international travel, the federal government has awarded Irish-based IT multinational Accenture a A$75 million contract to develop a Digital Passenger Declaration (DPD) system. </p>
<p>These new digital passes, <a href="https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/KarenAndrews/Pages/new-digital-platform-to-support-reopening-of-the-international-border.aspx">announced this week</a>, will replace two current documents: the physical incoming passenger cards filled in by all international arrivals to Australia, and the online <a href="https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/australia-travel-declaration">COVID-19 Australian Travel Declaration</a>, which details travellers’ COVID vaccination status. </p>
<p>With international travel restrictions set to be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/30/australians-will-be-able-to-freely-travel-overseas-when-80-of-the-population-is-vaccinated-morrison-says">lifted for vaccinated Australians</a> once the nation reaches 80% vaccination, it is not yet clear whether unvaccinated foreign travellers will be allowed into Australia once the international border opens, or whether unvaccinated Australians will be allowed to travel overseas and return.</p>
<p>It is also not yet clear how the new system will interact with the COVID “<a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/vaccine-passports-for-overseas-travel-to-be-available-for-australians-from-next-month/67a009f4-048a-4637-a8e2-f304e53308d1">vaccine passports</a>” the government has pledged to make available to Australians from next month, allowing them to prove their vaccination status using either a digital or printed document.</p>
<p>The federal government says the new DPD system will also be able to share details of international travellers’ health and vaccination status with state and territory health authorities.</p>
<p>And Stuart Robert, the federal minister responsible for digital data policy, said the program could be extended in future to cover visas, import permits, licences, registrations and other government-issued documents. </p>
<p>While many of the details remain to be confirmed, the announcement prompts a range of questions about how the new digital passenger declarations will work in practice.</p>
<h2>Is the new document a ‘vaccine passport’?</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421117/original/file-20210914-15-1seoq5z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421117/original/file-20210914-15-1seoq5z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421117/original/file-20210914-15-1seoq5z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421117/original/file-20210914-15-1seoq5z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421117/original/file-20210914-15-1seoq5z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=541&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421117/original/file-20210914-15-1seoq5z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421117/original/file-20210914-15-1seoq5z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421117/original/file-20210914-15-1seoq5z.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Travellers arriving in Australia, both Australian and foreign nationals, have previously been required to fill in a physical declaration card.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Not really — it’s more than that, because it also replaces the yellow arrival cards that will be familiar to anyone who has travelled to Australia on an international flight in recent years.</p>
<p>Besides this, the system will also allow passengers to digitally upload their COVID vaccination certificate. It’s not yet clear whether this will be the same document as the “vaccine passports” set to be issued by the federal government from next month. </p>
<p>The vaccine passports can be shown to immigration officials in other countries, whereas the information in the DPD is purely for collection by Australian officials. It’s also not clear what documents foreign arrivals will be able to use to declare their COVID vaccination status to Australian authorities via the DPD system.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vaccine-passports-are-coming-to-australia-how-will-they-work-and-what-will-you-need-them-for-167531">Vaccine passports are coming to Australia. How will they work and what will you need them for?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How will privacy and security concerns be addressed?</h2>
<p>Arriving travellers completing an incoming passenger card disclose lots of personal information, such as their full name, passport number, intended address in Australia, and declarations relating to customs and quarantine. </p>
<p>The new proposed DPD system will capture all these details, as well as the traveller’s COVID vaccination status. This raises several questions about how these data will be collected, transmitted, stored, accessed and shared. </p>
<p>A digital-based system comes with increased cybersecurity risks, and cyber criminals will doubtless be on the lookout for any vulnerability. There will also need to be clear policies detailing which federal, state and territory agencies are granted access to the data.</p>
<p>Will it be mandatory for overseas arrivals to declare their vaccination status, and will they be refused entry if they can’t prove they have been vaccinated? We don’t know yet.</p>
<p>Will authorities determine who needs to quarantine based on their vaccination status? Will Australia implement a traffic-light system, similar to other nations such as the United Kingdom, to identify which countries pose their biggest risk from unvaccinated travellers?</p>
<p>It is also unclear whether the system will be offered in <a href="https://www.abf.gov.au/entering-and-leaving-australia/crossing-the-border/at-the-border/incoming-passenger-card-(ipc)">languages besides English</a>, and whether alternatives will be provided to those with accessibility needs or who lack access to a digital device.</p>
<h2>How will travellers’ vaccination status be verified?</h2>
<p>Recently, federal trade minister Dan Tehan <a href="https://www.trademinister.gov.au/minister/dan-tehan/transcript/interview-patricia-karvelas-abc-rn-drive">told ABC radio</a> the government is working with the International Civil Aviation Organisation on a QR-based system that would allow Australian vaccine certificates to be internationally recognised. </p>
<p>However, it is unclear at this stage whether the new DPD system will use the same system to verify the vaccination status of Australians returning home, and whether it will be able to verify foreign travellers’ vaccination status without further checks.</p>
<p>At the same time, Qantas is <a href="https://www.qantas.com/gb/en/travel-info/travel-updates/coronavirus/qantas-international-network-changes/digital-health-pass.html#what">investigating</a> ways to integrate yet another system, the <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/">IATA Travel Pass</a>, into its own app. This system, developed by the International Air Transport Association and already used by airlines in several countries, allows passengers to securely store and present their COVID vaccination certificate, and to find information on testing and vaccine requirements for their journey.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421065/original/file-20210914-19-1lf0per.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421065/original/file-20210914-19-1lf0per.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421065/original/file-20210914-19-1lf0per.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421065/original/file-20210914-19-1lf0per.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421065/original/file-20210914-19-1lf0per.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421065/original/file-20210914-19-1lf0per.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421065/original/file-20210914-19-1lf0per.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">IATA Travel Pass.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">IATA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why isn’t there a globally unified approach?</h2>
<p>European Union residents can already use the EU Digital COVID Certificate app to travel freely between member nations, and to other participating countries such as Norway. The app uses a QR code signed with a digital signature to ensure authenticity without needing to collect extra personal details from the holder. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421064/original/file-20210914-13-1mw4f5a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/421064/original/file-20210914-13-1mw4f5a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421064/original/file-20210914-13-1mw4f5a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421064/original/file-20210914-13-1mw4f5a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=772&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421064/original/file-20210914-13-1mw4f5a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421064/original/file-20210914-13-1mw4f5a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/421064/original/file-20210914-13-1mw4f5a.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=970&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">EU Digital Certificate app.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>New York state, meanwhile, has adopted a blockchain-based app called <a href="https://covid19vaccine.health.ny.gov/excelsior-pass-and-excelsior-pass-plus">Excelsior Pass</a>, which provides digital proof of COVID vaccination or negative test results. It works by searching the state’s health department records, using special cryptographic signatures to ensure COVID certificates and health data are genuine.</p>
<p>For the time being at least, international passengers will likely need to use several different apps to prove their vaccination status in various parts of the world. There are obvious issues with this beyond simple inconvenience, such as data and privacy protection.</p>
<h2>Will the system discriminate unfairly?</h2>
<p>My <a href="https://www.jmir.org/2021/2/e23467/">research</a> shows that the absence of a unified approach to COVID-19 contact-tracing apps was the main driver behind their failures worldwide. Similar problems are now arising with the rapid proliferation of national and international COVID certificates, travel passes and vaccine passports.</p>
<p>One issue is compatibility. The Excelsior Pass app, for instance, only works on devices running Apple iOS version 13 or later, or Android version 7 or later.</p>
<p>But more importantly, people should have the right to prove their vaccination status without needing to carry a smart phone. Even in a rich country like Australia, only about <a href="https://www.redsearch.com.au/resources/australian-mobile-statistics/">80% of the population owns a smart phone</a>, and the rate is lower in developing nations. A system that relies solely on apps would disproportionately deny freedom of movement to poorer people.</p>
<p>Other issues go beyond the choice of technology involved. Legislation will be needed to ensure people with a valid reason for not having been vaccinated do not face discrimination as Australia and the world gradually open up their borders.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mahmoud Elkhodr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal government has awarded $75 million to Accenture to design a digital replacement for the cards filled in by international arrivals, complete with details of passengers’ COVID vaccination status.Mahmoud Elkhodr, Lecturer in Information and Communication Technologies, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1657442021-08-09T05:34:27Z2021-08-09T05:34:27ZThe federal government just made it even harder for Australians overseas to come home. Is this legal? Or reasonable?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415095/original/file-20210808-19-yip913.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has meant huge restrictions on Australians’ ability to travel both within Australia and overseas. But until now, Australian citizens ordinarily resident in other countries have been able to return to Australia and then leave without requiring additional permission. </p>
<p>However, last week, the federal government quietly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/06/australians-who-live-overseas-now-unable-to-leave-country-if-they-return-for-visit">removed that exemption</a>. This is designed to deter Australians from coming home in the first place, thereby reducing demand on quarantine places. It will come into effect on Wednesday August 11. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/theres-a-ban-on-leaving-australia-under-covid-19-who-can-get-an-exemption-to-go-overseas-and-how-145089">There's a ban on leaving Australia under COVID-19. Who can get an exemption to go overseas? And how?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It follows <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/at-work/wa-premier-unleashes-frustration-with-fifo-workers-during-covid19-pandemic/news-story/528f8886a32c57990a956b101e770c9a">lobbying from state premiers</a> (who have to quarantine people) to limit the movement of fly-in fly-out workers.</p>
<p>This means Australians who live abroad and return to Australia (even if it is to see family) will not automatically be able to leave again unless they meet narrow grounds <a href="https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia">for an exemption</a>. They will need to prove they have an “established and settled” home overseas, <a href="https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia#toc-9">via documents</a> like a residency permit, tenancy agreement, letter from an employer or utility bills. This is not necessarily straightforward, particularly as lives, jobs and visas continued to be disrupted by the pandemic. </p>
<p>Is this latest move legal? Are there any grounds to challenge this?</p>
<h2>The Biosecurity Act</h2>
<p>The government’s power to ban people from leaving Australia comes from the <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ba2015156/s477.html">Biosecurity Act</a>. In an emergency, section 477(1) gives the health minister sweeping powers to prevent and control the entry of diseases into Australia.</p>
<p>Since COVID began, Health Minister Greg Hunt has issued determinations to stop Australian citizens and residents from <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2020L00306">leaving without permission</a>, to ban them from <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2021L00456/Explanatory%20Statement/Text">travelling on</a> from the New Zealand “travel bubble” to another country, and to ban people from <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2021L00533">returning to Australia from India</a> during the second wave. If people breach these rules, they can be subject to <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ba2015156/s479.html">penalties</a> of up to five years’ imprisonment, a fine of up to $66,000, or both. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Health minister Greg Hunt." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415096/original/file-20210808-25-1sym591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415096/original/file-20210808-25-1sym591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415096/original/file-20210808-25-1sym591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415096/original/file-20210808-25-1sym591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415096/original/file-20210808-25-1sym591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415096/original/file-20210808-25-1sym591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415096/original/file-20210808-25-1sym591.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As health minister, Greg Hunt has sweeping powers under the Biosecurity Act.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By contrast to other legislative instruments, these determinations by the health minister cannot be “<a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Brief_Guides_to_Senate_Procedure/No_19">disallowed</a>” (or overturned) by federal parliament. </p>
<p>This means parliament can’t block the health minister’s decision to stop Australians who live abroad from leaving without permission.</p>
<h2>What about constitutional rights?</h2>
<p>Australia is one of the only liberal democracies in the world without a bill of rights. </p>
<p>In countries such as <a href="https://www.gesetze-bayern.de/Content/Document/Y-300-Z-BECKRS-B-2020-N-35808?hl=true">Germany</a>, <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/slovenia-second-wave-of-challenges-to-constitutionalism/">Slovenia</a>, and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/spanish-court-rules-covid-19-home-confinement-was-unconstitutional-20210715-p589ug.html">Spain</a>, citizens and residents have been able to challenge COVID restrictions in courts by arguing <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/verhaeltnismaessigkeit-mit-der-holzhammermethode/">they breach their constitutional rights</a>. Courts then consider whether a restriction is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-risk-and-rights-the-wicked-balancing-act-for-governments-146014">proportionate</a> way of controlling the virus.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-latest-travel-caps-look-like-an-arbitrary-restriction-on-australians-right-to-come-home-161882">Why the latest travel caps look like an arbitrary restriction on Australians’ right to come home</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There is a strong argument the new restriction for Australians is disproportionate. This is because its objective — managing the entry of COVID by deterring demand for quarantine places — is already achieved via caps on the number of people who can enter Australia. There are also other means of managing risk that would place a lesser burden on rights to leave and return to Australia, such as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/02/australia-needs-a-covid-plan-b-that-gives-more-freedom-to-the-vaccinated">tailoring restrictions</a> to vaccination status.</p>
<p>Reducing demand for already regulated spaces, as the new restriction does, is really about reducing political pressure on government to expand quarantine systems.</p>
<h2>What does the India experience tell us?</h2>
<p>Because Australia doesn’t have a bill of rights, citizens can’t challenge the proportionality of Hunt’s determinations. </p>
<p>This was clear in the <a href="https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/single/2021/2021fca0517">challenge to the ban</a> on citizens returning from India, where the Biosecurity Act was described by counsel for the Commonwealth as a “<a href="https://lsj.com.au/articles/australian-citizenship-lessons-from-the-india-travel-ban/">legislative bulldozer</a>” — knocking over any other statutory protections or common law rights that people might have. The ban was found to be legal.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-crisis-in-india-is-a-terrifying-example-of-why-we-need-a-better-way-to-get-australians-home-159917">The crisis in India is a terrifying example of why we need a better way to get Australians home</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The minister does need to consider whether there are <a href="http://classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/ba2015156/s477.html">less intrusive</a> ways of controlling the entry of COVID when making a determination. But the challenge to the India ban shows courts will allow a great deal of discretion to the health minister in making that call. As long as there is a basis for the minister to make that call — such as health advice — courts will not look too deeply into the premises underlying that advice or its proportionality.</p>
<h2>Commonwealth power</h2>
<p>One argument against stopping Australians who ordinarily live abroad from leaving is the Commonwealth must have a power explicitly listed in the Constitution to make a law about this.</p>
<p>The federal government is likely relying on the Constitution’s <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Constitution/chapter1/Part_V_-_Powers_of_the_Parliament">quarantine power</a> to stop Australians from leaving. The <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2021L01068/Explanatory%20Statement/Text">explanatory statement</a> tabled in parliament last Thursday makes clear the Commonwealth is removing the exemption on people who ordinarily live abroad to reduce demand on quarantine places. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Passengers at Sydney airport line up to check package." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415129/original/file-20210809-13-1p8cw1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/415129/original/file-20210809-13-1p8cw1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415129/original/file-20210809-13-1p8cw1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415129/original/file-20210809-13-1p8cw1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415129/original/file-20210809-13-1p8cw1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415129/original/file-20210809-13-1p8cw1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/415129/original/file-20210809-13-1p8cw1o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australians will find it even harder to travel overseas from August 11.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Himbrechts/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/06/australians-who-live-overseas-now-unable-to-leave-country-if-they-return-for-visit">an argument</a> stopping people from leaving doesn’t have enough of a connection to the Commonwealth’s power over quarantine. Given the <a href="https://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/showCase/2021/HCA/5">broad approach</a> courts have taken to emergency powers during the pandemic, a court may nonetheless find restrictions on people leaving is incidental to managing quarantine.</p>
<h2>International human rights law</h2>
<p>What about Australian citizens’ rights under international law?</p>
<p>Under international law, everyone must be free to leave any country, including their own. In exceptional and very limited circumstances, this right may be restricted – for instance, if it is necessary to protect public health. However, the restrictions must be clearly set out in domestic law, consistent with other human rights (including the right to family life), and “<a href="https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/45139c394.pdf">the least intrusive</a>” way of achieving the desired aim. </p>
<p>The United Nations Human Rights Committee has been <a href="https://www.refworld.org/pdfid/45139c394.pdf">very plain</a>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The application of restrictions in any individual case must be based on clear legal grounds and meet the test of necessity and the requirements of proportionality.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, a “one size fits all approach” will not cut it.</p>
<p>The current restrictions do not take into consideration vaccination status, nor the fact a cohort of Australian citizens have their permanent home abroad. </p>
<p>Particularly when considered in conjunction with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-latest-travel-caps-look-like-an-arbitrary-restriction-on-australians-right-to-come-home-161882">barriers</a> the government has already put in place that limit these Australians’ right to return home, this additional exit requirement truly seems like overreach.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/165744/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liz Hicks receives funding from an Australian Commonwealth Government Research Training Program stipend. She is also a member of the Australian Greens Victoria, although her views do not reflect party policy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jane McAdam receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Regina Jefferies is affiliated with the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law. </span></em></p>Australians who normally live overseas will face an even tougher time coming back to Australia, under new rules that start this week.Liz Hicks, PhD / Dr. iur. candidate, The University of MelbourneJane McAdam, Scientia Professor and Director of the Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW SydneyRegina Jefferies, Affiliate, Andrew and Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1633562021-06-29T17:50:01Z2021-06-29T17:50:01ZCanada needs to fix its border management now to prevent a fourth wave of COVID-19<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408495/original/file-20210627-18-1wgnvix.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C140%2C2044%2C1346&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Federal officials have repeatedly touted Canada’s border measures during COVID-19 as among the most stringent in the world.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Ryan Remiorz </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Canada’s international borders are the frontline against future importation of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants. </p>
<p>As researchers in global health, we have analyzed the effective use of cross-border measures internationally during the COVID-19 pandemic through the <a href="https://www.pandemics-borders.org/">Pandemics and Borders Project</a>. At this critical stage of the COVID-19 response, our <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HS0Gs0sAewE95EohY1clzL3BlJUPMktN/view">findings</a> point to the urgent need to address the gaps in border management to prevent another resurgence of the virus in the fall.</p>
<p>Modelling studies show that herd immunity — estimated to be at least 90 per cent of total population vaccinated given highly transmissible variants — will be <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2021/05/08/covid-19-herd-immunity-looks-like-a-mirage-but-is-worth-pursuing/?sh=7532c580381f">difficult to reach</a>, despite <a href="https://www.sfu.ca/content/dam/sfu/magpie/PDFs/vaccine_endgame_report_v1%20(2).pdf">Canada’s progress in mass vaccination</a>.</p>
<p>The federal government announced that <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/news/2021/06/government-of-canadas-first-phase-to-easing-border-measures-for-travellers-entering-canada3.html">hotel quarantine requirements will end</a> on July 5 for fully vaccinated returning citizens and residents. This will be only the first phase of easing travel restrictions over the coming months.</p>
<p>Travel-related risks need to be carefully managed, balancing growing pressure to reopen with the race to get Canadians vaccinated. How well this is accomplished will determine whether Canada is set on a path towards recovery or a fourth wave.</p>
<h2>Ongoing gaps in Canada’s border management</h2>
<p>Federal officials have repeatedly touted Canada’s border measures during COVID-19 as among the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/news/2021/02/government-of-canada-expands-restrictions-to-international-travel-by-land-and-air.html">most stringent in the world</a>. Yet the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/6/canada-facing-very-serious-third-wave-of-pandemic-trudeau">third wave</a> of variant-driven infections, hospitalizations and lockdowns across the country, and growing risks from the Delta variant first detected in India, suggest otherwise.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-19-delta-variant-in-canada-faq-on-origins-hotspots-and-vaccine-protection-162653">COVID-19 Delta variant in Canada: FAQ on origins, hotspots and vaccine protection</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Unlike Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004537">many other jurisdictions</a>, Canada’s mandatory testing and hotel quarantine measures were only introduced in <a href="https://twitter.com/justintrudeau/status/1355237731291508740?lang=en">January and February 2021</a>. By that point, <a href="https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/60176/ontario-takes-immediate-action-to-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19-variants">significant and repeated virus importation</a> had already occurred. </p>
<p>Canadian policy remains inconsistent for travellers arriving by air versus land. A <a href="https://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/cnt/trnsprnc/brfng-mtrls/prlmntry-bndrs/20210708/007/index-en.aspx">Public Safety Canada briefing note</a> from March 10, 2021, reported only seven per cent of travellers entering via land crossings are subject to quarantine requirements. Broad <a href="https://travel.gc.ca/travel-covid/travel-restrictions/exemptions">exemptions</a> include cross-border students, technicians working on vaguely defined critical infrastructure, public officials and other categories of arrivals. </p>
<p>Beyond the three-day hotel quarantine for air arrivals, the 14-day quarantine for non-exempt travellers has been largely <a href="https://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_oag_202103_03_e_43785.html">self-monitored and sporadically enforced</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408499/original/file-20210627-23-nbf57a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Canadian and an American flag fly at the Blue Water Bridge between Port Huron, Michigan and Sarnia, Ontario." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408499/original/file-20210627-23-nbf57a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408499/original/file-20210627-23-nbf57a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408499/original/file-20210627-23-nbf57a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408499/original/file-20210627-23-nbf57a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408499/original/file-20210627-23-nbf57a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408499/original/file-20210627-23-nbf57a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408499/original/file-20210627-23-nbf57a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Government officials have often claimed fewer than two per cent of total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Canada are associated with international travel, but exemptions, inconsistencies and gaps in tracing and testing make this figure unreliable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most concerning, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-canada-doesnt-know-how-many-covid-19-cases-are-linked-to-travel-154321">data collection and analysis has been incomplete</a>, failing to provide accurate risk assessment evidence to inform border management. Government officials have often claimed <a href="https://www.narcity.com/travel-related-covid-19-cases-in-canada-are-extremely-low">fewer than two per cent</a> of total SARS-CoV-2 infections in Canada are associated with international travel. This figure has been used to justify arguments against improved border measures.</p>
<p>Gaps and lags in contact tracing and reporting from provincial authorities, combined with exemptions and inconsistencies in testing and quarantine, means this figure is unreliable and inadequate for policy decisions. </p>
<p>Further doubts about available data arise from <a href="https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html#a6">Public Health Agency of Canada reporting</a> that show more than 45 per cent of all exposures in Canada are from an “unknown source.” </p>
<p>To appropriately assess risks, methods must go beyond these partial counts. They must model risks of community transmission from infected travellers — especially those with a high-transmission variant — who may remain unidentified and/or come in contact with the wider population.</p>
<h2>Why effective border management matters now</h2>
<p>Border management grounded in sound risk assessment is particularly critical now. Canadians await opportunities to travel more freely to international destinations, and there are growing questions about how and when the Canada-U.S. border may reopen to non-essential travel. </p>
<p>However, vast discrepancies in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00306-8">global vaccine access</a> and distribution mean high levels of infection and transmission worldwide. More variants will likely emerge, some highly transmissible and virulent, some potentially vaccine evasive. If the latter is imported into Canada in the coming weeks, as previous variants were, this has the potential to undermine gains made through vaccination. The result would be another cycle of lockdowns, shuttered businesses and school closures.</p>
<h2>Easing travel restrictions safely</h2>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408717/original/file-20210628-17-u58heg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Border crossing with several lanes closed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408717/original/file-20210628-17-u58heg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408717/original/file-20210628-17-u58heg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408717/original/file-20210628-17-u58heg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408717/original/file-20210628-17-u58heg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408717/original/file-20210628-17-u58heg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408717/original/file-20210628-17-u58heg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/408717/original/file-20210628-17-u58heg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Peace Arch Canada/USA border crossing in Surrey, B.C.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Easing measures requires some doable fixes that, if done right, lay the foundation for the phasing in an immunization-based border management system. Here are four recommendations from our Pandemics and Borders Project: </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Better communication is needed. Public officials and journalists have often used terms such as “travel bans” and “border closures,” yet <a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=2410004101">hundreds of thousands</a> of travellers have arrived in Canada each month. As Canada eases travel restrictions, we recommend reframing the issue as risk-based border management. The clear task is to align who can travel across Canadian borders, and under what conditions, with the evolving science concerning COVID-19 vaccines.</p></li>
<li><p>Now is the time to prevent, rather than react to, a potential fourth wave. Taking action after a highly transmissible variant is already within our borders has proven too slow and ineffective. Prevention means plugging existing holes in the system and then gradually easing restrictions starting with fully vaccinated travellers.</p></li>
<li><p>Prioritize effective testing and self-quarantine. Testing and quarantine have been criticized by some for restricting freedom and imposing undue burdens on travellers. But options can be unobtrusive, encourage vaccination and ultimately prevent a fourth wave in Canada. This requires better alignment with best practices worldwide.</p></li>
<li><p>Strengthen risk assessment. Risk assessment is essential to identifying existing weaknesses in the testing and quarantine protocols for international and domestic travellers. Public access to appropriately detailed and standardized data should also be improved. Without better data collection, reporting and analysis of travel-related risks, we are largely flying in the dark.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>As mass vaccination continues at home and abroad, and Canadians anticipate easing of travel restrictions, strengthening border management and risk assessment should be key parts of Canada’s strategy for reopening its borders.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163356/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Julianne Piper is funded by the New Frontiers in Research Fund for her work on the Pandemics and Borders Project</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benoît Gomis receives funding from the New Frontiers in Research Fund through the Pandemics and Borders Project. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kelley Lee receives research funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and New Frontiers in Research Fund.</span></em></p>Pressure is mounting to reopen the Canada-U.S. border, but there are risks. How well those risks are managed may be the difference between pandemic recovery or a fourth wave of COVID-19.Julianne Piper, Research Fellow, Health Sciences, Simon Fraser UniversityBenoît Gomis, Research fellow, Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser UniversityKelley Lee, Professor of Global Health Policy, Canada Research Chair in Global Health Governance, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1622482021-06-09T20:03:40Z2021-06-09T20:03:40ZIf you don’t have a COVID vaccination certificate, could you be banned from restaurants, shops and theatres?<p>Vaccine passports are an increasingly likely proposition in Australia. Last week, national cabinet “<a href="https://theconversation.com/national-cabinet-takes-a-step-towards-compulsory-jabs-for-aged-care-workers-162187">welcomed</a>” a new COVID-19 digital vaccination certificate, which will be made available through the Medicare app or myGov. </p>
<p>This week, government services minister Linda Reynolds <a href="https://minister.servicesaustralia.gov.au/media-releases/2021-06-09-new-covid-19-digital-certificate-simplifies-proof-vaccination">confirmed</a> Australians who have had two doses would be able to access a certificate. Australians are already able to see their immunisation history online. But the new certificate will only show COVID vaccination status, so it could easily be turned into a “passport”.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1402416866375593985"}"></div></p>
<p>Countries all over the world are currently developing <a href="https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/all-details-on-eu-covid-19-passport-revealed-heres-what-you-need-to-know/">digital vaccination passports</a> to facilitate international travel. </p>
<p>In Australia, we are also discussing whether they can be used to <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-prime-minister-scott-morrison-backs-vaccine-passport-comments-on-herd-immunity/98811333-a6f1-4a87-8d1f-d4657466e381">open up interstate movement</a> (which will depend on the agreement of state and territory authorities). </p>
<p>However, there is also a legal question as to whether these vaccination certificates can be used for other purposes. </p>
<p>Could businesses ask to see the passport to prevent unvaccinated people from entering restaurants, shops, theatres and other venues? If so, what issues would this raise? </p>
<h2>What are vaccine passports?</h2>
<p>Vaccine passports are certificates that show the holder has been immunised against COVID-19. Currently they are being developed primarily for travel. For instance, the European Union is set to make available its <a href="https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/all-details-on-eu-covid-19-passport-revealed-heres-what-you-need-to-know/">COVID vaccination passport</a> for all EU citizens and residents by July 1. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405256/original/file-20210609-3358-1nyujr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/405256/original/file-20210609-3358-1nyujr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405256/original/file-20210609-3358-1nyujr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405256/original/file-20210609-3358-1nyujr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405256/original/file-20210609-3358-1nyujr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405256/original/file-20210609-3358-1nyujr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/405256/original/file-20210609-3358-1nyujr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">EU residents will get vaccination passports next month.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Vojtech Vlk/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The certificate is designed to allow freedom of movement within the EU by allowing holders to avoid internal travel restrictions, such as entry bans and quarantine obligations. </p>
<p>Every certificate will contain a unique QR code which will allow verification of its authenticity, the digital signature and the vaccination details (the name of the vaccine and manufacturer, number of doses administered and the date(s) of vaccination). </p>
<h2>A passport to dine out?</h2>
<p>In addition to travel, other countries have taken a further step and started using vaccination certificates for internal purposes, such as entry into restaurants and events. </p>
<p>For instance, Israel started a “<a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/01/1020154/israels-green-pass-is-an-early-vision-of-how-we-leave-lockdown/">green pass</a>” system earlier this year, which allowed vaccinated people access to theatres, concert halls, indoor restaurants and bars. </p>
<p>People would show the “green pass” on an app to gain entry to places. The app could also display proof someone had recovered from COVID-19. </p>
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<p>With most adults in Israel <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com.au/israel-vaccinated-most-adults-covid-herd-immunity-2021-6?r=US&IR=T">now vaccinated</a>, the government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-end-covid-19-restrictions-after-vaccine-success-2021-05-23/">retired the pass</a> last week. </p>
<p>But before this, the pass raised privacy concerns. For instance, Orr Dunkelman, a Privacy Israel board member, <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/01/1020154/israels-green-pass-is-an-early-vision-of-how-we-leave-lockdown/">argued</a> the certificate revealed information that was not necessary for others to know, such as the date a person recovered from COVID or received the vaccine. </p>
<h2>Legal considerations for Australia</h2>
<p>The first legal point to note is that vaccinations (and certifications of vaccine status) are seen as facilitating the right to health. Widespread vaccination and the use of vaccination passports are viewed as necessary to protect the community from COVID. </p>
<p>Related to this is the argument that vaccination passports will permit greater freedom of movement — which is a recognised human right.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-covid-vaccine-passport-may-further-disadvantage-refugees-and-asylum-seekers-155287">A COVID 'vaccine passport' may further disadvantage refugees and asylum seekers</a>
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<p>However, there are two main legal concerns with using a COVID certificate to regulate entry into events, restaurants and other businesses. </p>
<p>First, both governments and corporations need to abide by anti-discrimination laws. There will be a relatively small group of people who are unable to have the vaccination for medical reasons. A business that excludes such a person could risk breaching these laws. </p>
<p>The government must therefore consider how to reflect valid exemptions in the COVID certificate. One way to deal with some of the discrimination concerns would be to give unvaccinated individuals with a medical exemption an “unvaccinated with exemption”-type certificate. </p>
<h2>What if you don’t want to get vaccinated?</h2>
<p>The more difficult question is whether this would be lawful for those who simply do not want to get the vaccination. As I have argued <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-government-or-my-employer-force-me-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-under-the-law-144739">previously</a>,
there is no recognised right to conscientious objection to vaccinations under Australian law. Therefore, it may be lawful for businesses to refuse entry to such persons who do not have a COVID certificate. </p>
<p>More generally, however, it would not be lawful for businesses selling essential goods (such as Coles and Woolworths) to refuse entry to unvaccinated persons (whether or not they have a valid exemption). This is due to the fact this would deny persons access to basic food items. </p>
<h2>Privacy and equity issues</h2>
<p>The use of a digital certificate or app also raises privacy issues. This system will create a significant new store of data of potentially sensitive personal information. This is of particular concern if it is linked to other information on the myGov plaftorm or contains additional data to that of vaccination status.</p>
<p>Finally, government and businesses need to be aware of the equity issues surrounding both the vaccine rollout and any associated certification scheme. In my opinion, enforcement of vaccination passports could not occur before everyone in Australia has been given the opportunity to have the COVID vaccination.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/162248/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Maria O'Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Australians will be able to show specific online proof if they have had two doses of a COVID jab.Maria O'Sullivan, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Law, and Deputy Director, Castan Centre for Human Rights Law, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1618152021-06-02T06:47:26Z2021-06-02T06:47:26ZHotel quarantine causes 1 outbreak for every 204 infected travellers. It’s far from ‘fit for purpose’<p>With Melbourne under lockdown for another seven days, the consequences of Australia’s inefficient and dangerous quarantine system continue. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1399917553741225986"}"></div></p>
<p>This outbreak started with just one <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/south-australian-covid-19-leak-likely-a-result-of-ventilation-issue-experts-say-20210528-p57w23.html">leak from hotel quarantine</a> in South Australia in early May. And unless the hotel quarantine system gets a serious shake up – and fast – we’re likely to see more outbreaks. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.17.21251946v3.full#ref-2">analysis</a> shows for every 204 infected travellers in hotel quarantine in Australia, there is one leak. </p>
<p>We have known since August 2020, through the <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/considerations-for-quarantine-of-individuals-in-the-context-of-containment-for-coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)">World Health Organization</a>, of the risks associated with quarantine in hotels with their shared spaces and inadequate ventilation systems. </p>
<p>Over the past ten months, a plethora of epidemiologists, public health experts, engineers and state premiers have consistently highlighted the shortcomings of a hotel-based quarantine system and the need for purpose-built facilities. </p>
<p>These calls have been largely ignored by the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-27/hotel-quarantine-covid-wa-scott-morrison/100098318">federal government</a>, which continues to consider the current hotel-based quarantine system as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/27/health-officials-beg-australian-government-to-upgrade-hotel-quarantine-amid-covid-leaks">fit for purpose</a>” and “a system that is achieving 99.99% effectiveness” and is “serving Australia very well”. </p>
<p>But is this true? </p>
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<h2>Rethinking the data</h2>
<p>We teamed up with colleagues from the University of Otago to analyse hotel quarantine data from Australia and New Zealand (some of which is outlined in this <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.17.21251946v3">pre-print paper</a>, meaning it’s yet to be peer reviewed).</p>
<p>We attempted to identify all COVID-19 outbreaks and border control failures associated with quarantine systems and to estimate the failure risks in terms of the spread of COVID-19 infection into the community. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/another-day-another-hotel-quarantine-fail-so-what-can-australia-learn-from-other-countries-144804">Another day, another hotel quarantine fail. So what can Australia learn from other countries?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We identified 21 failures that have occurred between April 2020 and June 2021 in Australia: </p>
<ul>
<li>three in Queensland</li>
<li>eight in New South Wales</li>
<li>two in South Australia</li>
<li>five in Victoria</li>
<li>three in Western Australia.<br></li>
</ul>
<p>One of these caused more than <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-29/why-is-melbourne-in-lockdown-yet-again/100174084">800 deaths</a> and the most recent is causing the current lockdown in Victoria. </p>
<p>There were 4.9 failures per 1,000 SARS-CoV-2 positive cases in quarantine. This means that one outbreak from hotel quarantine is expected every 204 infected travellers. </p>
<p>Since April 2020, on average 308 infected travellers arrived in Australia each month, so that is 1.5 expected outbreaks per month. </p>
<p>This doesn’t sound like a system that is 99.99% effective.</p>
<h2>So what needs to happen?</h2>
<p>The proportion of returning travellers who are infected is increasing due to the global intensification of the pandemic and the increasing infectivity of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-the-indian-variant-responsible-for-victorias-outbreak-and-how-effective-are-vaccines-against-it-161574">What's the 'Indian' variant responsible for Victoria's outbreak and how effective are vaccines against it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia’s quarantine system is our first and most important line of defence against COVID-19. If it’s not improved, the risk of outbreaks will increase. </p>
<p>So how can we improve the quarantine system? Based on our analysis, we recommend:</p>
<p><strong>1. Capping or temporarily suspending travel from high-risk areas.</strong> </p>
<p>The most obvious action is to reduce arrivals, or even suspend arrivals, from high-infection locations. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-28/australia-india-flights-travel-ban-covid-outbreak/100099906">Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/441413/india-travel-ban-lifts-as-new-zealanders-stuck-there-plead-for-help-to-get-them-home">New Zealand</a> temporarily did for travel from India in April 2021 and other <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-11/coronavirus-australian-travel-ban-extended-to-italy/12045064">high-risk countries earlier in the pandemic</a> . </p>
<p>This is the “red light” we need to hit from time to time.</p>
<p><strong>2. Establishing adequate quarantine facilities.</strong> </p>
<p>Every state and territory should be equipped with Howard Spring-style facilities, with outdoor-facing cabins with free-flowing air. </p>
<p>These facilities could be used in priority for travellers coming from high-risk countries. </p>
<p>This won’t reduce the risk of leaks to zero, although we have not yet seen any leakage out of Howard Springs. </p>
<p>The Victorian government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-30/vic-victoria-opens-tender-for-new-quarantine-facility/100177296">recently announced</a> a project to build a 3,000-bed facility for returning travellers with support from the federal government, and other states should do the same.</p>
<p>Hotels could then be used just for arrivals from lower-risk countries such as Singapore and South Korea – though the classification of countries as “low risk” would change over time. </p>
<p>Some countries may be so low risk quarantine is not needed and may place returned travellers at increased risk of acquiring COVID-19 while in quarantine. This is the case for NZ at the moment, and <a href="https://www-afr-com.eu1.proxy.openathens.net/policy/health-and-education/how-to-get-australia-s-borders-open-again-20210503-p57oh8">should be expanded</a> to other countries that meet suitable thresholds. </p>
<p><strong>3. Expanding the use of saliva testing among facility workers and travellers.</strong></p>
<p>We need to expand the daily use of PCR (polymerase chain reaction) saliva testing to workers at all facilities. </p>
<p>So far, as of April 2021, <a href="https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/surveillance-testing-industry-list-covid-19">Victoria</a>, <a href="https://www.healthywa.wa.gov.au/Articles/A_E/Coronavirus/COVID19-vaccine/Quarantine-and-Border-Workers">WA</a>, <a href="https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/saliva-testing.aspx">NSW</a> and <a href="https://www.covid-19.sa.gov.au/emergency-declarations/medi-hotel-testing">SA</a> have all updated their testing rules to make daily saliva testing mandatory for quarantine staff. Other states should follow suit.</p>
<p><strong>4. Protect and test border workers.</strong></p>
<p>Most of the quarantine system failures in Australia involved the infection of quarantine workers. </p>
<p>The vaccination of all quarantine workers against COVID-19 will have reduced this risk of transmission, though no public data are available to confirm all workers have been vaccinated. </p>
<p>While vaccination is not mandatory for border workers, <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6247902779001">staff who refuse the jab</a> are removed from the front line.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-strict-border-control-remains-crucial-if-we-want-to-keep-the-travel-bubble-safe-159325">Why strict border control remains crucial if we want to keep the travel bubble safe</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>We can’t afford to wait</h2>
<p>Quarantine system failures can be very costly in terms of health, lives and economic impacts. The likely economic cost of the current outbreak in Victoria, <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/coronavirus-victorias-new-lockdown-could-cost-1-billion-a-week-treasurer-says/news-story/9d26f9986565aee82cfeb9623c0b0ee6">A$1 billion or more</a>, is enough to build two or more new facilities. </p>
<p>Embracing a more rigorous quarantine system for high-risk arrivals, in combination with an effective vaccination strategy that allows low-risk arrivals to (eventually) come in with no quarantine, is the necessary path forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161815/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government says hotel quarantine is ‘serving Australia very well’. But if you look at the leaks as a proportion of COVID-positive returnees, it’s a different story.Driss Ait Ouakrim, Research Fellow, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneAmeera Katar, Data Analyst and Research Coordinator, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, The University of Melbourne, The University of MelbourneTony Blakely, Professor of Epidemiology, Population Interventions Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1611222021-05-19T14:25:05Z2021-05-19T14:25:05ZNHS vaccine passports are here – but will they be used beyond international travel?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401627/original/file-20210519-17-h06olt.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C3964%2C2658&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/health-passport-covid19-vaccination-mobile-phone-1953840355">Viacheslav Lopatin/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>England’s <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-57070185">NHS vaccine passport</a> has arrived, and with it the promise of a return to <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/eu-travel-covid-vaccine-passport-uk-holidays-spain-france-europe-restrictions-1006292">international travel</a> unencumbered by swab tests or lengthy periods of quarantine. Most people will have received this news with excitement, but it’s my job to look closer at what’s going on behind the app. And what I found is troubling. </p>
<p>Instead of <a href="https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/guide-to-data-protection/guide-to-the-general-data-protection-regulation-gdpr/accountability-and-governance/data-protection-impact-assessments/">impact assessments</a> that provide us with reassurance that risks have been responsibly mitigated, the vaccine passport has been released with a <a href="https://covid-status.service.nhsx.nhs.uk/help/privacy-notice">privacy notice</a> that appears to contradict the caution and care the UK government has so far professed to be applying to this controversial technology. </p>
<p>Earlier in 2021, the government acknowledged that “<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-56169586">deep and complex issues</a>” around vaccine passports would need addressing before their release. Critics <a href="https://privacyinternational.org/long-read/4350/anytime-and-anywhere-vaccination-passports-immunity-certificates-and-permanent">fearful of government data grabs</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56755161">unfair applications of the technology</a> were placated by the promise that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/28/uk-drops-plans-for-mandatory-covid-passports-in-pubs-and-restaurants">serious limitations</a> would be placed on the application of vaccine passports – ruling out their use in pubs and restaurants, for instance.</p>
<p>Yet that’s not what we see in the new app service’s privacy notice – which is, in its most generous interpretation, rather sloppy. The stated purpose for the vaccine passport is to make it an integral part of “unlocking” society – but that comes with serious <a href="https://royalsociety.org/news/2021/02/12-challenges-for-vaccine-passports/">surveillance and discrimination concerns</a>.</p>
<h2>Trying out the NHS app</h2>
<p>On April 28, the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, made the <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-nhs-app-to-be-used-as-covid-passport-for-international-travel-grant-shapps-confirms-12289071">casual announcement</a> that the <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/online-services/nhs-app/">NHS App</a> – not the <a href="https://www.covid19.nhs.uk/">NHS Covid-19 app</a> – was going to be extended to function as a vaccine passport for international travel. This was my cue to install the app and try it out. </p>
<p>Logging in, I discovered the app already knew about my first COVID-19 vaccination, listed alongside all my prescriptions going back 15 years – not information I would normally choose to share at border control.</p>
<p>My app then updated itself on May 15. A new “Check your COVID-19 vaccine record” tab had appeared, showing my vaccination information on a screen by itself – a sensible update. There was also a <a href="https://www.coronavirus-record.service.nhs.uk/">web version of the service</a>, with <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/online-services/vaccine-record/terms-of-use/">terms of use</a> and a <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/online-services/vaccine-record/privacy-policy/">privacy policy</a> that I found reassuring in many ways.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A phone screen showing the NHS app" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401628/original/file-20210519-13-y75cgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401628/original/file-20210519-13-y75cgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401628/original/file-20210519-13-y75cgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401628/original/file-20210519-13-y75cgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401628/original/file-20210519-13-y75cgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401628/original/file-20210519-13-y75cgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401628/original/file-20210519-13-y75cgx.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The vaccine passport function is an extension of the NHS app – not the NHS COVID-19 app.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/st-albans-united-kingdom-13-october-1833323707">Thomas Holt/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But this was not the vaccine passport functionality, it has now turned out. The next app update, on May 18, added yet another tab: “Share your COVID-19 status”. Initially it adds “for travel”, but the new <a href="https://covid-status.service.nhsx.nhs.uk/help/privacy-notice">privacy notice</a> that accompanies it tells a different story:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>As the country resumes normal functions, this data will be useful for further aspects of unlocking as they arise.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>International travel was merely an example of how the data would be used. Here lie significant problems that critics have been concerned about for some time. For one, the broader use of vaccine passports <a href="https://royalsociety.org/news/2021/02/12-challenges-for-vaccine-passports/">raises issues</a> of discrimination between those who have and have not been offered vaccinations. </p>
<p>But using vaccine passports in scenarios other than international travel also necessarily increases surveillance, seeing as you’ll need to prove that the vaccine certificate on your phone truly belongs to you. When we travel internationally, we’re used to carrying a passport along with flight tickets and required vaccination certificates – but for events and social gatherings, we don’t expect to have to identify ourselves.</p>
<h2>Concerning privacy policy</h2>
<p>The latest privacy policy also contains a long and confusing list of personal data under “The Personal Data we collect and how it is used”, some of which look worryingly sensitive – such as ethnicity, vehicle registration plate, national insurance number, employer, biometric and genetic information and criminal convictions. </p>
<p>The list isn’t an exhaustive collection of all types of “<a href="https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/guide-to-data-protection/guide-to-the-general-data-protection-regulation-gdpr/lawful-basis-for-processing/special-category-data/">special category data</a>”, which receive extra legal protection due to their sensitivity, so until we receive clarification it’s unclear why such data are even listed. The NHS has expressed that it does not collect this list of data.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1394994867063992320"}"></div></p>
<p>It’s possible that this confusing list of data items is just copied from a previous privacy policy and pasted into this one – a practice apparently used for some <a href="https://metro.co.uk/2020/12/30/brexit-deal-recommends-using-decades-old-internet-browsers-13824481/">sections of the UK’s Brexit agreement</a>, as was revealed in December 2020. If this is the case, it would reveal a privacy-as-afterthought attitude that’s at odds with how widely used and far-reaching this app looks set to become.</p>
<p>There is reference to a data sharing agreement in the privacy policy, which could reveal the wider scope of the vaccine passport. This data sharing could also be related to the wide range of data stored in the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-we-need-to-know-more-about-the-uk-governments-covid-19-data-project-and-the-companies-working-on-it-141078">COVID data store</a>”, run by the government’s digital health agency, <a href="https://www.nhsx.nhs.uk/">NHSX</a>.</p>
<p>Also concerning is the fact that the data governance of the vaccine passport itself is managed by the Department for Health and Social Care rather than being left with the NHS England data service. This puts a UK government department in charge of a service that works only for England – again, it’s unclear why this is the case.</p>
<p>All this leaves me with enough unease about the vaccine passport that I do not intend to sign up to it unless circumstances force me to use it for international travel, and I may still prefer the paper alternative in that case.</p>
<h2>Possible reassurances</h2>
<p>Is there anything NHSX could do to reassure me? Absolutely. A <a href="https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/guide-to-data-protection/guide-to-the-general-data-protection-regulation-gdpr/accountability-and-governance/data-protection-impact-assessments/">data protection impact assessment</a> should be produced and published. This would tell us all about what data is actually used, including an explanation of why data collection is both necessary and proportional. </p>
<p>I’d be looking out for an assessment of the risk of “<a href="https://thelivinglib.org/the-concept-of-function-creep/">function creep</a>”: the widening of the scope of use, which could see our tickets for international travel converted into something more sinister and concerning. It would also need to address general impacts to rights and freedoms, such as those related to equality.</p>
<p>Performing such an impact assessment is actually specifically <a href="https://ico.org.uk/for-organisations/guide-to-data-protection/guide-to-the-general-data-protection-regulation-gdpr/accountability-and-governance/data-protection-impact-assessments/">legally required</a>, and should already have been done. Publication is unfortunately not compulsory, but <a href="https://twitter.com/EerkeBoiten/status/1391018401263493127">we still don’t know</a> whether one was done at all.</p>
<p>For now, however, it appears that the UK government has definitively abandoned its previous <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/01/no-plan-for-covid-vaccine-passports-in-uk-says-michael-gove">cautious position on vaccine passports</a>, without providing any reassurances that would enable broad public support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161122/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eerke Boiten does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A glance over the NHS app’s new privacy policy has revealed the wider, potentially concerning scope of vaccine passports.Eerke Boiten, Professor of Cybersecurity, School of Computer Science and Informatics, De Montfort UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1588672021-04-14T20:08:13Z2021-04-14T20:08:13ZThe airline industry hasn’t collapsed, but that’s the only good news for overseas travel<p>We thought things would be so much better by now.</p>
<p>A year ago I wrote about <a href="https://theconversation.com/once-the-pandemic-is-over-we-will-return-to-a-very-different-airline-industry-134124">the future of the airline industry</a>. Along with many other experts, I expected international air travel by this point would still be below pre-pandemic levels but well on its way to recovery. </p>
<p>We are not even close. </p>
<p>After a disastrous 2020, in which passenger traffic globally fell by two-thirds, the International Air Transport Association’s <a href="https://centreforaviation.com/members/direct-news/2020-worst-year-in-history-for-air-travel-demand-550629">latest forecast</a> (published in February) doesn’t expect this year’s total traffic to be more than halfway back to pre-pandemic levels. Full recovery isn’t expected before 2023. </p>
<p>For some countries it might be even longer. </p>
<p>Deloitte Access Economics in Australia, for example, published a report on Monday predicting international air travel may <a href="https://themarketherald.com.au/deloitte-australian-economy-is-roaring-back-but-full-international-travel-is-years-away-2021-04-12/">not fully recover until 2024</a>; and that prediction was locked in before the Australian government announced on Sunday it was abandoning its target to have all Australians vaccinated <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-australias-vaccination-bungle-becomes-clear-morrisons-political-pain-is-only-just-beginning-158704">by the end of October</a> – a time frame on which the opening of international borders was predicated. </p>
<p>That’s particularly bad news for Qantas, Australia’s main airline, which last year hoped to resume international operations by July. Now its plan (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-24/qantas-pushes-backs-expected-restart-of-international-travel">announced in February</a>) to restart 22 of its 25 overseas routes in November also looks unlikely.</p>
<h2>No large-scale bankruptcies</h2>
<p>But things could be worse. </p>
<p>A year ago I (and others) expected many airlines to fail as prolonged revenue losses strained their liquidity positions beyond breaking point. I was wrong. </p>
<p>According to aviation and travel analytics company Cirium, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/08/over-40-airlines-have-failed-in-2020-so-far-and-more-are-set-to-come.html">43 airlines</a> went out of business in 2020. But this was fewer than 2019 (when 46 carriers went bust) and in 2018 (when 56 airlines went out of business). </p>
<p>Most of the bankruptcies were smallish regional carriers, such as Britain’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/05/flybe-collapses-two-months-after-government-announces-rescue">Flybe</a> or AirAsia’s Japanese subsidiary <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/AirAsia-Japan-files-for-bankruptcy-leaving-23-000-flyers-without-refunds">AirAsia Japan</a>. </p>
<p>So far no mid-sized and larger carriers went out of business, though a few have come close. For example, <a href="https://www.thaiairways.com/en/news/news_announcement/news_detail/news98.page">Thai Airways</a> and Columbia’s <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-avianca-bankruptcy-idUSKBN26Q2ZJ">Avianca</a> (Latin America’s second-biggest airline) requested bankruptcy protection. Australia’s second major airline, Virgin Australia, also went into <a href="https://theconversation.com/voluntary-administration-isnt-a-death-sentence-for-virgin-australia-or-for-competition-136832">voluntary administration</a> but was saved from collapse – at least temporarily – by being sold to <a href="https://theconversation.com/virgin-sacrifice-boardroom-bloodletting-signals-a-classic-private-equity-hijacking-148244">US private equity firm Bain Capital</a>. These are the kinds of airlines I expected to collapse a year ago.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cutbacks-may-keep-virgin-australia-alive-for-now-but-its-long-term-prospects-are-bleak-141876">Cutbacks may keep Virgin Australia alive for now, but its long-term prospects are bleak</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>But at what cost?</h2>
<p>The main reason for the lack of large-scale airline bankruptcies has been government assistance. The International Air Transport Association’s latest tally puts the amount of state aid to airlines globally at <a href="https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/air/state-aid-to-airlines-now-exceeds-225bn">US$225 billion</a>. That’s equal to more than a quarter of the global airline industry’s revenues in 2019. </p>
<p>IATA’s analysis of <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/government-aid-and-airlines-debt/">the first US$123 billion</a> (published in May 2020) shows about 60% of the aid has been in loans or loan guarantees (with the balance being wage subsidies, equity financing, tax relief, operating subsidies and direct cash injections). Those loans must eventually be repaid.</p>
<p>As I predicted, governments have put little care into directing aid to the airlines with the best chance of surviving in the longer term. IATA’s analysis shows no correlation between the airlines’ likely viability <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/government-aid-and-airlines-debt/">and the amount of aid received</a>.</p>
<p>This means many carriers could struggle to repay their debts post-crisis. It also means lending governments have greater incentives to keep them afloat so they can.
One possible consequence is governments offering further support by protecting struggling airlines from competition post-COVID. A government could restrict flights, for example, to make routes more profitable. That would mean higher airfares.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Passengers at Roissy Airport, near Paris, April 11 2021." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394707/original/file-20210413-17-sjmh61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394707/original/file-20210413-17-sjmh61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394707/original/file-20210413-17-sjmh61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394707/original/file-20210413-17-sjmh61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394707/original/file-20210413-17-sjmh61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394707/original/file-20210413-17-sjmh61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394707/original/file-20210413-17-sjmh61.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Passengers at Roissy Airport, near Paris, April 11 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But at least the industry concentration I feared would result from collapses, mergers and acquistions – leading to less competition and higher prices for customers – <a href="https://airlines.iata.org/ceo-interviews/the-business-of-freedom-will-fly-again-alexandre-de-juniac-former-iata-director">looks unlikely</a>.</p>
<h2>The world is not as global as we thought</h2>
<p>The single biggest disappointment of the past year has been governments’ inability to effectively collaborate to relax international travel restrictions. Even between countries that have managed COVID-19 well, such as Australia and New Zealand. Their “<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56645990">travel bubble</a>” could and should have started much earlier.</p>
<p>IATA’s efforts to have governments embrace a system of COVID tests for travellers before departures, rather than quarantine of arrival, <a href="https://www.cityam.com/iata-calls-for-worldwide-airport-testing-to-replace-quarantine/">fell on deaf ears</a>. </p>
<p>Travel bubbles have proved difficult to agree on and maintain. Taiwan’s bubble with Palau, for example, only allows for miniscule travel numbers. The Singapore-Hong Kong arrangement was suspended days before it was scheduled to commence following a minor outbreak in Hong Kong. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-quarantine-free-trans-tasman-bubble-opens-on-april-19-but-flyer-beware-remains-the-reality-of-pandemic-travel-158423">A quarantine-free trans-Tasman bubble opens on April 19, but 'flyer beware' remains the reality of pandemic travel</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Pretty much all such discussions have been bilateral. These are a start, but what is really needed are multilateral agreements for regional safe-travel areas. Australia and New Zealand, for example, could team up with countries with similar epidemiological situations such as Singapore, Taiwan, China and Vietnam.</p>
<p>Had governments adopted a more cooperative approach, they might have saved money paying local airlines for not flying. This lack of cooperation, if it continues, will ensure international travel resumes slower than it could have.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="New self-service check-in machines introduced by Japan Airlines at Tokyo's Haneda airport enable passengers to complete the procedure without touching the screen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394946/original/file-20210414-23-1oc47as.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/394946/original/file-20210414-23-1oc47as.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394946/original/file-20210414-23-1oc47as.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394946/original/file-20210414-23-1oc47as.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394946/original/file-20210414-23-1oc47as.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394946/original/file-20210414-23-1oc47as.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/394946/original/file-20210414-23-1oc47as.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=492&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New self-service check-in machines introduced by Japan Airlines at Tokyo’s Haneda airport enable passengers to complete the procedure without touching the screen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kyodo/AP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Vaccines are now the key</h2>
<p>The IATA’s February forecast of global travel volumes being back to 80% of 2019 levels by the last quarter of the year now principally rests on the speed of vaccination programs around the globe, and what happens with new COVID-19 variants. </p>
<p>Until a considerable share of people are vaccinated, protective measures (masks, distancing, reduced capacity at events, track-and-trace) will remain necessary, both during travel and while out and about on the ground. </p>
<p>Crucial to international travel returning to normal will be “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2021/03/22/vaccine-passport-who-covid-travel-will-you-need-one/4762495001/">vaccine passports</a>”, some form of which will likely be needed for most international travel for at least the next five years.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/vaccination-passport-apps-could-help-society-reopen-first-they-have-to-be-secure-private-and-trusted-157219">Vaccination passport apps could help society reopen – first they have to be secure, private and trusted</a>
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<p>I expect requirements such as the need to quarantine will start to be lifted for those who have been vaccinated between July and October. But there will be big differences between nations. Some may open their borders to everyone as soon as a sufficient share of domestic population has been vaccinated. Others may open quarantine-free travel only to vaccinated individuals for the next several years. </p>
<p>The more governments cooperate and learn from each other’s successes, though, the quicker we can return to a world of unfettered travel. The livelihoods of tens of millions of people worldwide depend on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/158867/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Volodymyr Bilotkach is an External Instructor with IATA Training.</span></em></p>We thought things would be so much better for international air travel by now, though things could be worse for the airlines themselves.Volodymyr Bilotkach, Associate Professor, Singapore Institute of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1573992021-03-18T04:32:35Z2021-03-18T04:32:35ZAs Australia’s COVID vaccine rollout splutters, we need transparency about when international borders might reopen<p>The Australian government’s offer of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-10/tourism-coronavirus-pandemic-assistance-package-cheap-flights/13235432">half-price airfares to encourage domestic tourism</a> highlights another item of unfinished COVID policy business: when will Australia’s international borders be reopened?</p>
<p>The border questions, such as when to remove <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/COVID-19/leaving-Australia">exit controls</a> and lift hotel quarantine for arrivals, have profound implications for the economy.</p>
<p>Border closures have been key to Australia escaping the worst ravages of the pandemic and successfully pursuing an elimination strategy on COVID-19.</p>
<p>Widespread vaccinations will eventually enable Australia to reopen its borders. The question is when.</p>
<p>The federal government should be explicit about what proportion of the population it judges will need to be vaccinated to warrant border reopening. Australians could then measure progress towards that goal. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1371568724575195139"}"></div></p>
<h2>The vaccination program is off to a slow start</h2>
<p>Australia’s vaccine program has been much-trumpeted, but troubled. Key elements of a successful mass vaccination program have not been in place including:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>mass vaccination <a href="https://www.england.nhs.uk/coronavirus/publication/vaccination-sites/">venues</a></p></li>
<li><p>a booking and prioritisation system that works and <a href="https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk?fbclid=IwAR3Mhv3t7l4ARHXv0ea9kpuClHAjVL1MjZ4H5L2ajQm48xlXbeAgOtKXthk">lets people know within a 3-4 week window when their turn might be</a>, as the United Kingdom’s does</p></li>
<li><p>a logistical system that gets vaccines to the right place at the right time and enables tracking of deliveries by recipients. I’ve heard from several GPs that they <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-17/covid-gp-clinics-vaccine-rollout-confusion/13255874">don’t know how many vaccines they’re going to get and when</a>.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt’s announcement today of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-18/coronavirus-australia-live-updates-covid19-latest-news-vaccine/100015526">more than 100 new vaccination clinics</a> is a step in the right direction, but it alone isn’t enough to fix the botched rollout. </p>
<p>No deadlines for the rollout have yet been met, and the target end date <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-well-behind-schedule-but-dont-panic-157048">appears to have already slipped</a>, from October 2021 to <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/not-all-second-covid-19-shots-will-be-delivered-by-october-20210311-p579tv.html">January 2022</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-well-behind-schedule-but-dont-panic-157048">Australia's COVID vaccine rollout is well behind schedule — but don't panic</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The rollout for the first groups (phase 1A), including <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/getting-vaccinated-for-covid-19/when-will-i-get-a-covid-19-vaccine">quarantine and front-line health workers and aged-care residents</a>, has proceeded slowly.</p>
<p>So far, it appears that low vaccination rates are not primarily due to problems of overseas supply as only a fraction of the <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/100-000-australians-vaccinated-as-more-covid-19-vaccine-doses-arrive-20210310-p579bf.html">doses that have arrived from overseas</a> <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/getting-vaccinated-for-covid-19#australias-vaccine-rollout">have been used</a>.</p>
<p>The second stage of the rollout (phase 1B) started badly, with a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/18/what-the-hell-industry-sources-say-government-rushed-launch-of-covid-vaccine-booking-system">botched booking system</a> leading to GPs being overwhelmed by callers but with practices having no idea when they would get vaccines nor how many.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1372287955352440833"}"></div></p>
<p>The vaccination rollout involved what Greg Hunt described as “<a href="https://www.9news.com.au/health/coronavirus-australia-vaccine-rollout-massive-logistical-operation-greg-hunt/05d4758d-ca0d-4fdd-8567-3a513fa239b5">one of the largest logistical exercises in Australia’s history</a>”. Unfortunately, it hasn’t gone smoothly so far, with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/26/australias-covid-vaccine-rollout-errors-cancellations-and-missed-deadlines">inadequate notice, messed-up deliveries and cancellations</a>.</p>
<p>Australia will be less reliant on international supplies from March 22, when domestically produced vaccines will begin <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-05/astrazeneca-vaccine-australian-made-rollout-from-march-22/13220254">rolling off the CSL production line</a>.</p>
<h2>What’s the target?</h2>
<p>Once the teething problems are fixed, the federal government should tell us what proportion of the population will need to be fully vaccinated before it reopens the external borders.</p>
<p>Once borders are reopened and hotel quarantine is no longer universally required, the risk of COVID infection will increase. Australians’ principal protection against that risk will be through vaccine-derived herd immunity. <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2777391">Assuming</a> the <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.25.21252415v1">vaccine protects against transmission</a>, fewer people will get infected because there will be fewer unprotected people.</p>
<p>The level of vaccination required to achieve herd immunity is affected by <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.07061.pdf">how infectious the virus is</a>, and this is changing with new variants. But it’s estimated we’ll need to vaccinate between <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-00451-5?fbclid=IwAR1XjD0YOvTNAXN5Lw4VureGOzzxGfvXRwx4lpoxUaMysAq_4b_D51l0gUw">65%</a> and <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)32318-7/fulltext">90%</a> of the whole population. If the necessary figure proves to be at the high end of that range, Australia may never achieve herd immunity, given the extent of vaccine hesitancy and the reality that the <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/apm-summary/comirnaty">Pfizer vaccine has only been approved for people aged 16 and over</a> and <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/apm-summary/covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca">AstraZeneca for people 18 and over</a>.</p>
<p>According to various surveys, somewhere between <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/more-australians-becoming-wary-of-covid-19-vaccines">15%</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/16/two-thirds-of-australians-definitely-want-covid-vaccine-while-27-are-unsure">30%</a> are hesitant about getting the vaccine, with possibly up to <a href="https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/more-australians-becoming-wary-of-covid-19-vaccines">20% potentially refusing the vaccine</a>. </p>
<p>But it’s not a new phenomenon and there are <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264410X15005046">ways to increase vaccine uptake</a>. For example, if uptake isn’t reaching the necessary levels, airlines or governments could mandate <a href="https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/qantas-responds/qantas-group-position-on-covid-19-vaccination-for-international-travel/">proof of vaccination for air travel</a>. Or, as proposed in the United States, governments could <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated.html">relax restrictions on masks or gatherings for vaccinated people</a>. In that context, the government could consider restricting its half-price airlines package to people who have been vaccinated.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1370199785202880512"}"></div></p>
<p>The threshold for herd immunity is a scientific question, and the answer may not be known for many months. But the important question remains: given what we know about the virus today, what level of vaccination means the risks to people and the economy of opening borders is commensurate with the benefits?</p>
<p>This is a question for national cabinet, or if consensus cannot be achieved there, for the federal government. The government has <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/puar.13224">constitutional power over quarantine</a>. Federal responsibilities also include international trade, including tourism and international students, and the fate of Australians stranded overseas.</p>
<h2>And if we achieve herd immunity?</h2>
<p>Once the threshold of herd immunity is achieved, states can abandon their trigger-happy use of lockdowns, and rely more on traditional public health approaches to infection control. These include ensuring their testing, tracing and isolation systems are up to scratch. Each state should learn from the best aspects of other states’ systems.</p>
<p>The federal government is in charge of vaccinating the general community, but it should invite the states to assist so they contribute more to the national vaccination effort. The states could help overcome the backlog, speed up the vaccination rate and help establish mass vaccination centres.</p>
<p>Reopening the external borders will be a key step along the path back to something approaching normality. The federal government should specify the criteria for reopening, to give Australians some certainty about what their travel future will look like.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157399/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Grattan Institute began with contributions to its endowment of $15 million from each of the Federal and Victorian Governments, $4 million from BHP Billiton, and $1 million from NAB. In order to safeguard its independence, Grattan Institute’s board controls this endowment. The funds are invested and contribute to funding Grattan Institute's activities. Grattan Institute also receives funding from corporates, foundations, and individuals to support its general activities, as disclosed on its website.</span></em></p>The government should be explicit about what proportion of the population will need to be vaccinated to warrant border reopening. Australians could then measure progress towards that goal.Stephen Duckett, Director, Health Program, Grattan InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1502682020-12-28T21:41:57Z2020-12-28T21:41:57ZVaccines may soon make travel possible again. But how quickly will it return — and will it be forever changed?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/375024/original/file-20201215-24-5k25hw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">RUNGROJ YONGRIT/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 pandemic brought the global tourism industry to a screeching halt in 2020. With <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-vaccine-will-be-a-game-changer-for-international-travel-but-its-not-everything-151214">vaccines starting to be rolled out</a>, there is hope international travel can resume soon, but exactly when — and how — is the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/pandemic-covid19-tourism-sector-tourism/">million-dollar question</a>.</p>
<p>Before COVID-19, there was much concern about whether <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21568316.2019.1599604">tourism had grown too big</a> for our planet. There were calls to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Degrowth-and-Tourism-New-Perspectives-on-Tourism-Entrepreneurship-Destinations/Hall-Lundmark-Zhang/p/book/9780367335656">scale back tourism</a>, make it more <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0141-x">environmentally sustainable</a> and help <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Resilient-Destinations-and-Tourism-Governance-Strategies-in-the-Transition/Saarinen-Gill/p/book/9780367582166">over-touristed locations become more resilient</a> to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160738319301690">crises</a>. </p>
<p>However, with almost no international travel in 2020, we now have the opposite problem. The pandemic caused a <a href="https://www.unwto.org/impact-assessment-of-the-covid-19-outbreak-on-international-tourism">70% drop in international tourist arrivals</a> globally from January to August, compared to the same period last year.</p>
<p>Destinations reliant on international tourists have been the hardest hit. Many are in <a href="https://theconversation.com/sun-sand-and-uncertainty-the-promise-and-peril-of-a-pacific-tourism-bubble-139661">developing countries</a>, where tourism is a major export earner. For example, according to the World Bank, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tourism-bubbles-asia-reopening-coronavirus/index.html">tourism makes up nearly 15% of Thailand’s GDP</a>, which is why it recently started <a href="https://www.thaiembassy.com/travel/covid-19-guide-for-travelers-in-thailand.php">allowing select foreign tourists to return for extended stays</a>. </p>
<p>But attempts to reboot international travel on a wider scale have so far failed due to successive waves of COVID-19. </p>
<p>As a more transmissible and harder-to-control coronavirus variant has emerged in the <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/is-the-coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-more-dangerous-than-the-uk-strain">UK and South Africa</a> in recent days, dozens of countries have announced they would <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/21/world/europe/brexit-covid-uk.html">close their doors to travellers</a> from both nations. Some countries, like <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/26/asia/japan-ban-foreign-nationals-intl/index.html">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/12/21/world/covid-19-coronavirus#israel-will-close-its-skies-to-foreign-nationals-and-require-israeli-travelers-to-quarantine">Israel</a>, have gone a step farther, banning all foreign nationals from entering. </p>
<p>Even before this, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tourism-bubbles-asia-reopening-coronavirus/index.html">travel bubbles</a> and <a href="https://thedope.news/europes-first-travel-bubble-fails-as-covid-19-cases-rise-in-estonia/">corridors</a> between countries have been proposed, but few have managed to take root.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374719/original/file-20201214-23-1row0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374719/original/file-20201214-23-1row0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374719/original/file-20201214-23-1row0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374719/original/file-20201214-23-1row0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374719/original/file-20201214-23-1row0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374719/original/file-20201214-23-1row0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374719/original/file-20201214-23-1row0mi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The recently-announced trans-Tasman bubble between Australia and New Zealand is one of the few options for international travel in the pipeline.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DEAN LEWINS/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With borders closed, many countries have put a focus on <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cog/tri/2020/00000024/00000001/art00002">attracting domestic tourists</a> instead. This has helped maintain economic stability in countries such as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-consumption-travel-idUSKBN26U0HX">China</a> and <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2020/10/18/travel/breaking-down-go-to-travel-campaign/">Japan</a>. </p>
<p>Hopes for a swift recovery of international travel are now pinned on a silver bullet: <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/covid-vaccine-travel/index.html">the rapid and widespread distribution</a> of a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55145696">vaccine</a>. </p>
<p>Beyond this, we believe getting people back in the air again will be shaped by three key issues. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-vaccine-will-be-a-game-changer-for-international-travel-but-its-not-everything-151214">A vaccine will be a game-changer for international travel. But it's not everything</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>1) What travel regulations will prove effective?</h2>
<p>Travel health requirements may soon start to <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/2019/08/cannot-forget-world-before-vaccines/">resemble the past</a>. In the 1970s, having appropriate vaccinations and health clearances was essential for travel to and from many countries. Coronavirus vaccinations <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-24/qantas-passengers-covid-19-vaccine-for-international-travel/12914020">will likely become similarly standard</a> for international flights. </p>
<p>This should be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/31/travel/vaccinations-for-traveling-abroad.html">rapidly adopted</a> by all countries, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-covid-19-immunity-passports-may-violate-us-law-138165">could even be applied more broadly</a> - in hotels, for example. </p>
<p>However, any vaccination regime will need governments to pass strong laws and regulations. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/gabrielleigh/2020/12/07/why-you-may-need-a-digital-travel-pass-to-fly-in-2021/?sh=6b9bbf8da2a1">Digital travel passes and vaccination passports</a> may be one solution, but in order to work, these will require <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-03/would-you-get-on-a-plane-for-a-covid-19-vaccine">standardisation across borders</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374721/original/file-20201214-24-1xqi5zd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374721/original/file-20201214-24-1xqi5zd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374721/original/file-20201214-24-1xqi5zd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374721/original/file-20201214-24-1xqi5zd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374721/original/file-20201214-24-1xqi5zd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374721/original/file-20201214-24-1xqi5zd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374721/original/file-20201214-24-1xqi5zd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Travellers are screened and have their temperature checked at Los Angeles International Airport.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">ETIENNE LAURENT/EPA</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>One solution may be the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/projects/commonpass">CommonPass</a>, a new digital health passport that looks to be a trustworthy model for validating people’s COVID-free status consistently across the globe. </p>
<p>Other health measures will also remain vital, including <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/youandiata/travelers/health/masks/">mandatory in-flight masks</a>, <a href="https://www.aviationpros.com/airports/article/21159671/revitalizing-air-travel-through-covid-testing">pre-departure</a> and arrival testing, mandatory quarantining and social distancing. If <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03134-2">vaccination uptake</a> in destinations is low, these measures will become even more important.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-governments-mandate-a-covid-vaccination-balancing-public-health-with-human-rights-and-what-the-law-says-150733">Can governments mandate a COVID vaccination? Balancing public health with human rights – and what the law says</a>
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<p><a href="https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202012010016">Touchless travel</a> should also become standard at most airports through the use of biometric technology. And passengers should expect <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/05/11/the-future-of-travel-is-touchless-yet-terrifying-with-fewer-flights-last-minute-border-closures/%3Fsh=796415f63bd8">temperature screening</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiecartereurope/2020/05/11/the-future-of-travel-is-touchless-yet-terrifying-with-fewer-flights-last-minute-border-closures/?sh=66bba7e03bd8">reduced in-flight services</a> to be the new norm. </p>
<p>Lengthy quarantine periods are one of the biggest obstacles to restarting international tourism — few people can afford 14 days in a quarantine hotel on top of their holiday.</p>
<p>There are potential alternatives being tested. Before the new COVID variant emerged, British Airways and American Airlines had <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/airline-news/2020/11/18/american-airlines-british-airways-plan-voluntary-covid-19-testing/6337404002/">piloted a voluntary testing program</a> for some passengers as a way of avoiding the mandatory 14-day quarantine period in the UK. </p>
<p>The British government also <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/quarantine-test-covid-rules-list-uk-b1760803.html">implemented its new “test and release” policy</a> in mid-December, which could shorten the quarantine period to five days for international arrivals.</p>
<h2>2) How will airlines restart their businesses?</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-07-28-02/">International Air Transport Association</a> expects the airline industry won’t reach pre-pandemic levels again until at least 2024. </p>
<p>This means any tourism restart is going to require restoring <a href="https://www.iata.org/contentassets/5c8786230ff34e2da406c72a52030e95/safely-restart-aviation-joint-aci-iata-approach.pdf">transportation infrastructure</a> and <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-transport-infrastructure/our-insights/will-airline-hubs-recover-from-covid-19">networks</a>, especially for aviation and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-29/cruise-industry-to-introduce-tough-new-covid-19-measures/12932502">cruising</a>.</p>
<p>Many planes are now parked in <a href="https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-24/where-airlines-are-parking-grounded-planes">deserts</a> in the US and Australia. They will need to be <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-banishes-planes-to-the-desert/a-53433298">retrieved and thoroughly serviced</a> before recommencing flights. Crews will have to be rehired or retrained. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374725/original/file-20201214-13-1yub4bk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/374725/original/file-20201214-13-1yub4bk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374725/original/file-20201214-13-1yub4bk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374725/original/file-20201214-13-1yub4bk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374725/original/file-20201214-13-1yub4bk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374725/original/file-20201214-13-1yub4bk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/374725/original/file-20201214-13-1yub4bk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Grounded planes parked at a storage facility in Alice Springs, Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DARREN ENGLAND/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>But it’s not as simple as just getting planes back in the air. A more formidable challenge for airlines will be <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ca/Documents/public-sector/ca-en-aviation%27s-recovery-flight-plan-aoda.pdf">reestablishing air routes</a> while ensuring their <a href="https://www.eurocontrol.int/article/aviations-recovery-covid-19-crisis-will-be-long-haul-flight">ongoing viability</a>. </p>
<p>As airlines slowly build up these networks again, travellers will have to put up with less frequent connections, longer journeys and drawn out stopovers. </p>
<p>There is some encouraging news, though. In the US, domestic airfares <a href="https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/how-is-the-airline-industry-adapting-to-covid">have dropped</a>, and though international flight schedules have been drastically reduced, low demand has kept some prices down.</p>
<p>Smaller and more nimble airlines should perform better. And expect <a href="https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/COVID-19/ICAO_Coronavirus_Econ_Impact.pdf">smaller and more efficient aircraft</a> to also become more common. Demand for long-haul flights <a href="http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/covid-19-and-the-aviation-industry-impact-and-policy-responses-26d521c1/">may remain low</a> for some time.</p>
<p>Airports, meanwhile, will require <a href="https://www.iata.org/en/programs/ops-infra/covid-19-ais-restrictions/">temporary or permanent reconfigurations</a> to handle new public heath screening and testing arrangements — providing yet another possible frustration for travellers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-cruise-guidance-27-07-2020.pdf">Cruise ships and port terminals</a> will face similar requirements, as will <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/travel-logistics-and-transport-infrastructure/our-insights/hospitality-and-covid-19-how-long-until-no-vacancy-for-us-hotels">hotels</a> and <a href="https://www.airbnb.co.uk/d/covidsafety">other accommodation providers</a>. </p>
<h2>3) Will traveller confidence return?</h2>
<p>For leisure travellers, the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517720301874">lingering fear of coronavirus infections</a> will be the most formidable obstacle to overcome. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/thanksgiving-travel-volume-2020-pandemic/index.html">Thanksgiving holiday</a> in the US and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/09/china-attractions-630-million-people-travel-during-golden-week.html">Golden Week</a> in China suggest the appetite for travel remains robust. Some analysts also <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/rebound-in-global-travel-will-be-gradual-despite-probable-vaccines-23-11-2020">anticipate</a> leisure travel will likely recover faster than business travel.</p>
<p>However, it remains to be seen whether travellers will have a high appetite for risk, or how quickly they’ll <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30647-2/fulltext">adapt to new safety protocols</a>.</p>
<p>The key to bringing traveller confidence back again will be standardising <a href="https://wttc.org/COVID-19/Safe-Travels-Global-Protocols-Stamp">safety and sanitation measures</a> throughout the <a href="https://ktdi.org/">global travel supply chain</a>. One idea is a <a href="https://wttc.org/COVID-19/Safe-Travels-Global-Protocols-Stamp">“Safe Travels” stamp</a> once companies have complied with health and hygiene protocols.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-covid-risk-on-a-flight-heres-what-you-can-do-to-protect-yourself-and-how-airlines-can-step-up-150735">Worried about COVID risk on a flight? Here's what you can do to protect yourself — and how airlines can step up</a>
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<h2>How we can build back better</h2>
<p>COVID-19 has prompted <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616688.2020.1765016">much reflection</a> about our relationship with the planet. </p>
<p>Advocates for more sustainable tourism are hoping the coming years will lead to a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616688.2020.1760928">rethink of international travel</a>, with more innovation and a <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616688.2020.1763445">renewed commitment</a> to addressing <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616688.2020.1762117">climate change</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14616688.2020.1763446">crisis management</a>.</p>
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<p>However, the likely reality is that destinations will be desperate for <a href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34348">economic recovery</a> and will compete vigorously for tourism dollars when borders reopen. </p>
<p>So, if consumer behaviour trends are anything to go by, the new normal might not be too dissimilar from the old. It’s doubtful, for example, that we would tolerate <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0969699719303229">flying less</a> when travel is proven safe again. This doesn’t bode well for the planet. </p>
<p>If international travel is going to “<a href="https://www.oneplanetnetwork.org/sustainable-tourism/covid-19-how-tourism-can-recover-responsibly">build back better</a>”, communities, governments and the global tourism industry must come up with a transformative plan that is workable and helps drive traveller behaviour change and decarbonisation. </p>
<p>The pandemic has given us a chance for a reset — we should make the most of the opportunity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150268/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph M. Cheer has received funding from various Australian Government grant programs. He is also an Adjunct Research Fellow, Monash University (Faculty of Arts), Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jarkko Saarinen has received funding from the Academy of Finland and the European Union. He is affiliated with the University of Johannesburg, South Africa. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Colin Michael Hall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A vaccine may be the magic bullet, but getting travellers back in the skies will require much more — including convincing people that travel is safe again.Joseph M. Cheer, Professor in Sustainable Tourism, Wakayama UniversityColin Michael Hall, Professor in Tourism and Marketing, University of CanterburyJarkko Saarinen, Professor in Human Geography (Tourism Studies), University of OuluLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1514702020-12-07T19:07:29Z2020-12-07T19:07:29ZDo I need a COVID flight clearance test to fly in Australia or overseas? And do I have to pay?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/373216/original/file-20201207-17-pdohdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C0%2C3936%2C2622&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As we head towards our first COVID-era Christmas, many Australians will be excited that it is once again possible to travel domestically to be with family and friends.</p>
<p>While international travel isn’t yet routine, some people continue to fly overseas with valid exemptions.</p>
<p>Of course, air travel moving forward is going to look a bit different. Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce recently declared international passengers will need to have had a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-24/covid-19-vaccine-passport-australia-qantas/12914246">COVID vaccine</a>, and this statement has attracted some backlash. </p>
<p>But until a vaccine is widely available — and even beyond — testing is going to be a requirement for some travellers.</p>
<h2>Do I need to produce a negative test to fly?</h2>
<p>For domestic travel in Australia, airlines do not require proof of a negative COVID test. But you will still need to follow the <a href="https://www.interstatequarantine.org.au/state-and-territory-border-closures/">border requirements</a> of each state. For example, <a href="https://www.wa.gov.au/organisation/covid-communications/covid-19-coronavirus-controlled-interstate-border?1#lr">Western Australia</a> continues to restrict visitors and require a 14-day isolation period for those who cross into the state from South Australia.</p>
<p>Your airline should have up-to-date information on any quarantine or other requirements, which you should check before flying. You can also check with the state government of your destination.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-vaccine-will-be-a-game-changer-for-international-travel-but-its-not-everything-151214">A vaccine will be a game-changer for international travel. But it's not everything</a>
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<p>For people wanting to travel out of Australia who have <a href="https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions">a valid exemption</a> from the Department of Home Affairs, <a href="https://www.etihad.com/en-au/travel-updates/all-destinations-travel-guides">some airlines</a> and <a href="https://www.lazenia.com/2020/11/23/travelling-to-spain-pcr-test/">countries</a> do require a COVID flight clearance. This is paperwork showing you have recently tested negative for the COVID-19 virus. </p>
<p>The clearance requirements differ depending on the airline you’re flying with and the countries through which you’re travelling. This is also something you should be able to <a href="https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/information-overseas-travellers#i-need-to-travel-overseas-do-i-need-a-pre-departure-coronavirus-covid-19-test">check with your airline</a>, as well as the government of your destination country.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="https://www.emirates.com/au/english/help/covid-19/dubai-travel-requirements/tourists/">Emirates states</a> that Australian tourists flying into Dubai “must present a negative COVID‑19 PCR test certificate that is valid for 96 hours from the date of the test before departure”.</p>
<h2>Where can I get a COVID flight clearance test?</h2>
<p>In Australia, anyone can access a free COVID test through a public health facility, mobile testing centre, or GP medical centre that offers bulk billing. You might have to pay for the consultation with your GP if they don’t offer bulk billing, but the <a href="https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-seeing-a-doctor-getting-tested-faqs">test itself is free</a>. </p>
<p>However, the tests are funded through <a href="https://www.servicesaustralia.gov.au/individuals/medicare">Medicare</a>, our national health insurance program, paid through our taxes. Medicare funds are intended to support the health and safety of Australians, rather than to be used for travel purposes.</p>
<p>For a flight clearance certificate, you can speak to your GP for a referral to a testing clinic, but be prepared that you may be asked to pay for the test. </p>
<p>Certain airlines also <a href="https://c.ekstatic.net/ecl/documents/health-screening-documents/approved-laboratories.pdf">list recommended clinics</a>. If you know you need a COVID test to travel, it’s a good idea to check whether your airline has nominated any particular clinics.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-covid-risk-on-a-flight-heres-what-you-can-do-to-protect-yourself-and-how-airlines-can-step-up-150735">Worried about COVID risk on a flight? Here's what you can do to protect yourself — and how airlines can step up</a>
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<p>If you need a COVID flight clearance test, you will need verified evidence, which the provider will send to you once they have the result. You will have to present a <a href="https://www.emirates.com/au/english/help/covid-19/dubai-travel-requirements/tourists/">printed certificate</a> when you travel — a text message won’t cut it. </p>
<p>And make sure you check the time frame with your airline (for example, if you need the clearance no more than 72 hours before travelling, you can plan accordingly). </p>
<p>The cost of the test and subsequent clearance certificate may vary depending on where you go. One <a href="https://www.executivetraveller.com/covid-19-test-certificate-international-travel">report</a> suggested it would be around A$140.</p>
<h2>Testing is an important measure, but it’s not foolproof</h2>
<p>A negative test result <a href="https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/newsroom/news-releases/covid-19-test-that-relies-on-viral-genetic-material-gives-false-negative-results-if-used-too-early-in-those-infected">does not guarantee</a> a person is not infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), particularly if they’ve been exposed very recently. This is why people quarantining after travel or exposure are not immediately released following a negative test result.</p>
<p>It’s also possible for somebody who is truly negative to pick up the virus in transit.</p>
<p>Even with a COVID vaccine, clearance certificates may still be required to protect other passengers on a flight. The intent of a vaccine is to protect a person from becoming very sick with COVID-19. But <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-vaccine-will-be-a-game-changer-for-international-travel-but-its-not-everything-151214">we don’t know yet</a> whether a vaccine will render people completely immune to SARS-CoV-2, and importantly, whether it will stop the virus spreading.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/employers-schools-take-note-coronavirus-clearance-certificates-are-a-waste-of-everybodys-time-140929">Employers, schools, take note. Coronavirus 'clearance certificates' are a waste of everybody's time</a>
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<p>Wherever you’re travelling — domestically or internationally — stay informed in the lead-up to your trip by checking the requirements of the state or country you’re travelling to, as well as the airline you’re flying with.</p>
<p>And if you have any questions about your own ability to travel, it’s best to consult your GP.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151470/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Ball receives funding from Griffith University, the National Health and Medical Research Council, VicHealth, and Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. She is an Executive Committee member of the Australasian Association of Academic Primary Care.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Morgan receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Bond University and the Australian Department of Health. He is affiliated with the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners as chair of the Expert Committee for Quality Care. He is a member of the Australasian Association of Academic Primary Care. He is co-chair of an Expert Panel for the National Covid-19 Clinical Evidence Taskforce.</span></em></p>Here’s what you need to know about COVID-19 clearances before travelling.Lauren Ball, Associate Professor/ Principal Research Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1512142020-12-03T19:04:11Z2020-12-03T19:04:11ZA vaccine will be a game-changer for international travel. But it’s not everything<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372731/original/file-20201203-15-10i31v3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5734%2C3457&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United Kingdom yesterday became the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/2/uk-approves-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-for-use-first-in-the-world">first country</a> to approve the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for widespread use. Following a review by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-medicines-regulator-gives-approval-for-first-uk-covid-19-vaccine">country’s drug regulator</a>, the UK government announced it will begin rolling out the vaccine next week.</p>
<p>Other countries are likely to follow soon, authorising the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and possibly other leading candidates too. Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration says it’s <a href="https://www.tga.gov.au/tga-statement-uk-government-emergency-use-authorisation-related-covid-19-vaccine-bnt162b2-supplied-pfizer-and-biontech">continuing to assess</a> the Pfizer/BioNTech data. </p>
<p>The world has been eagerly awaiting a COVID vaccine, touted since early in the pandemic as our best hope of returning to “normal”. A big part of this is the resumption of international travel.</p>
<p>Certainly, an effective vaccine brings this prospect much closer. But a vaccine alone won’t ensure a safe return to international travel. There are several other things Australia and other countries will need to consider.</p>
<h2>International travel in the age of a COVID vaccine</h2>
<p>When people are vaccinated before boarding a flight, we can have confidence there will be significantly less COVID risk associated with international travel. However, the data we have at the moment doesn’t tell us everything we need to know.</p>
<p>Let’s take the <a href="https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine">Pfizer/BioNTech</a> vaccine as an example. They have reported the efficacy of their mRNA vaccine to be 95% in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, having tested it on around half of the 43,000 participants in their phase 3 trial (the other half received a placebo).</p>
<p>The vaccine appears to be safe with only mild side-effects in some participants. And notably, the study included people aged 65 and over and those with health conditions that put them at higher risk of more severe disease. </p>
<p>However, the study hasn’t officially reported the efficacy of the vaccine against becoming infected, as opposed to displaying symptoms. While it’s encouraging to know a vaccine stops people getting sick, this point is important because if people can still become infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19), they may still be able to spread it. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pfizer-vaccine-has-just-been-approved-heres-what-the-next-few-months-will-look-like-150790">Pfizer vaccine has just been approved: here's what the next few months will look like</a>
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<p>Ugur Şahin, BioNTech’s cofounder and chief executive, believes the vaccine could <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54949799">reduce transmission by 50%</a>. This puts something of a dampener on vaccination being the key to the safe resumption of international travel.</p>
<p>At this stage, we also don’t know how long immunity will last for those vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. But as the trial will continue for several more months, some of this data should become available in 2021. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A doctor or scientists fills a syringe from a vaccine vial." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372733/original/file-20201203-23-15tk1ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372733/original/file-20201203-23-15tk1ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372733/original/file-20201203-23-15tk1ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372733/original/file-20201203-23-15tk1ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372733/original/file-20201203-23-15tk1ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372733/original/file-20201203-23-15tk1ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372733/original/file-20201203-23-15tk1ym.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Over time, vaccine trials will reveal more data.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>Not everyone will be vaccinated straight away, so we’ll still need quarantine</h2>
<p>It’s going to take months — or, more realistically, years — to vaccinate everybody who wants to be vaccinated. It won’t be feasible to expect every single person travelling internationally to be vaccinated.</p>
<p>There are several countries that appear <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-12/what-are-the-countries-that-remain-free-of-coronavirus/12874248">never to have had</a> community transmission. As of November, these included many Pacific island nations such as Tonga, Kiribati, Micronesia, Palau, Samoa and Tuvalu. </p>
<p>Then there are countries that have COVID-19 <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus">under control</a> with little, if any, community transmission. Examples include Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam and Singapore. </p>
<p>People arriving in Australia from these countries pose very little risk and should not need to quarantine, whether vaccinated or not. For other countries, it would very much depend on their epidemic situation at the time. </p>
<p>Some organisations have already developed COVID risk ratings for different countries or <a href="https://globalepidemics.org/">jurisdictions</a>. For example, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) <a href="https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-COVID-19-EU-EEA-UK-thirteenth-update-23-Oct-2020.pdf#page=13">rates</a> the COVID situation in each European country as “stable”, “of concern” or “of serious concern”. </p>
<p>These risk assessments are based on factors including each country’s 14-day COVID case notification rate, the proportion of tests coming back positive, and the rate of deaths.</p>
<p>Clearly, people from high-risk areas or countries will still need to quarantine on arrival, unless they have been vaccinated. It’s likely Australia will develop a similar rating system to the ECDC to streamline these decisions.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worried-about-covid-risk-on-a-flight-heres-what-you-can-do-to-protect-yourself-and-how-airlines-can-step-up-150735">Worried about COVID risk on a flight? Here's what you can do to protect yourself — and how airlines can step up</a>
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<h2>Testing</h2>
<p>Many countries now require a negative COVID test certificate before entry. For example, <a href="https://www.lazenia.com/2020/11/23/travelling-to-spain-pcr-test/">Spain</a> requires a negative PCR test no more than 72 hours before travelling. </p>
<p>Similarly, some airlines, such as <a href="https://www.executivetraveller.com/covid-19-test-certificate-international-travel">Emirates and Etihad</a>, are mandating COVID testing before travel. </p>
<p>It would also make sense to have rapid antigen testing available at airport arrivals or border crossings. Although <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-new-15-minute-test-has-potential-but-standard-tests-are-still-the-best-way-to-track-covid-19-146844">not as accurate</a> as PCR tests, these tests would provide a second check that a traveller hasn’t incubated COVID-19 on the way to their destination.</p>
<p>Even with vaccination, testing will still be important, as vaccination doesn’t guarantee a passenger is not infected, or infectious.</p>
<h2>Certificates and passports</h2>
<p>Once COVID-19 vaccines become accessible, countries and airlines may well require visitors to produce a certificate of vaccination.</p>
<p>Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce has <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-55048438">suggested</a> all Qantas international passengers from next year would be required to have a COVID vaccination certificate. </p>
<p>There are also many groups around the world working on <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/israels-pangea-offers-digital-health-passport-to-ease-travel-amid-pandemic/">immunity passports</a> and <a href="https://www.cntraveler.com/story/common-pass-app-international-air-travel">technologies</a> to track travellers’ virus status.</p>
<p>For example, the International Air Transport Association is developing a digital <a href="https://www.thebusinesstravelmag.com/index.php/news-pages/articles/iata-joins-with-iag-to-trial-digital-health-pass">health pass</a> which will carry testing and vaccination status.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-we-can-prepare-the-public-to-accept-a-covid-19-vaccine-saying-it-will-be-mandatory-isnt-one-144730">5 ways we can prepare the public to accept a COVID-19 vaccine (saying it will be 'mandatory' isn't one)</a>
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<p>It’s likely international travel will be allowed globally in the second half of next year, once vaccination is well underway. </p>
<p>It will be wonderful to be able to travel internationally again, but wherever we go — even with a vaccine — it will be some time before travel looks like it did before the pandemic.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/151214/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Esterman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With a vaccine now approved in the UK, other countries won’t be far behind. But a vaccine won’t singlehandedly ensure the virus doesn’t cross international borders when travel picks up.Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of South AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1501802020-12-02T19:07:48Z2020-12-02T19:07:48ZHow unis can use student housing to solve international student quarantine issues<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372400/original/file-20201201-14-16p04gd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C0%2C1144%2C762&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Charles Darwin University</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-30/international-students-arrive-in-australia-coronavirus-nt/12933370">arrival at Darwin airport</a> on Monday of 63 students from China, Hong Kong, Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia on a charter flight from Singapore ended an eight-month hiatus in international student arrivals in Australia. They are now in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-27/nt-chief-minister-covid-cap-on-international-arrivals-doubles/12927552">Howard Springs quarantine facility</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-australia-can-get-ahead-in-attracting-and-retaining-chinese-international-students-148444">5 ways Australia can get ahead in attracting and retaining Chinese international students</a>
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<p>Quarantine capacity is a major issue, given the <a href="https://www.austrade.gov.au/Australian/Education/Education-data/Current-data/summaries-and-news">numbers of international students</a>. Using student accommodation to quarantine newly arrived students is a way to increase this capacity. <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/research-papers/enhancing-the-design-quality-of-purpose-built-student-accommodation">Our research</a>, released today, shows this could be important for solving the quarantine issue.</p>
<h2>But shouldn’t Australians get priority?</h2>
<p>Over the years we have become accustomed to hundreds of thousands of young learners crossing our borders. In airport arrival halls incoming international students rubbed shoulders with Australian students returning from exchanges, study tours and internships. In departure lounges departing international students, with perhaps some hints of an Australian twang in their accents, mingled with Australian students setting off on their big adventures.</p>
<p>Despite student mobility being a normal feature of modern Australia, it was inevitable “Australians first” critics would deride the arrivals. Tasmanian Senator Jacquie Lambie <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-30/international-students-arrive-in-australia-coronavirus-nt/12933370">said</a> she found the student quarantine program “sickening”. </p>
<p>The Department of Home Affairs <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-30/international-students-arrive-in-australia-coronavirus-nt/12933370">said</a> the students arriving in Darwin were in addition to the government’s <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/news-and-updates/limits-passenger-flights-australia">returning passenger caps</a>. And that is the way it should be. Just as international students do not displace any local students from university places, it is important their arrival does not delay the return of Australian citizens and permanent residents.</p>
<p>All Australian states are considering plans to create secure corridors for students to return for the 2021 academic year. Universities, schools and colleges across the country are planning for their return, albeit with some online learning continuing to allow for social distancing on campus. The Commonwealth has sadly remained lukewarm on the states’ proposals to date.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/covid-to-halve-international-student-numbers-in-australia-by-mid-2021-its-not-just-unis-that-will-feel-their-loss-148997">COVID to halve international student numbers in Australia by mid-2021 – it's not just unis that will feel their loss</a>
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<h2>Student housing provides an answer</h2>
<p>The investment in purpose-built student accommodation over the past decade has been enormous. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372403/original/file-20201201-19-r8pwjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="View of Urbanest student accommodation in Sydney" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372403/original/file-20201201-19-r8pwjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372403/original/file-20201201-19-r8pwjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372403/original/file-20201201-19-r8pwjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372403/original/file-20201201-19-r8pwjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=905&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372403/original/file-20201201-19-r8pwjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372403/original/file-20201201-19-r8pwjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372403/original/file-20201201-19-r8pwjg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1138&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Large developments, such as Urbanest in Sydney, have expanded student housing capacity in Australia’s capital city CBDs to nearly 67,000 beds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-australia-jan-27-2017-urbanest-585494186">Tony Ng/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>Our research identified nearly 67,000 beds in this form of accommodation in Australia’s capital city CBDs alone. The <a href="https://studentaccassoc.com.au/news/9376655">Student Accommodation Association</a> estimates there are over 95,000 beds Australia-wide. Major developments are due to open soon that will swell those numbers.</p>
<p>As well as dramatic increases in scale, the character of this purpose-built accommodation has changed significantly. Older student dormitories are relatively small and closely affiliated with universities, religious orders and other not-for-profit organisations. The newer commercial developments are large-scale properties, usually in city centres. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372405/original/file-20201202-17-1dc9dt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="View of Scape tower in Melbourne" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372405/original/file-20201202-17-1dc9dt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372405/original/file-20201202-17-1dc9dt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372405/original/file-20201202-17-1dc9dt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372405/original/file-20201202-17-1dc9dt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372405/original/file-20201202-17-1dc9dt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372405/original/file-20201202-17-1dc9dt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372405/original/file-20201202-17-1dc9dt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The Scape tower in Melbourne has 754 student apartments over 45 levels.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/melbourne-vic-australia-february-5-2020-1735242881">woolver/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>According to City of Melbourne data, between 2011 and 2018 the average height of purpose-built student accommodation increased from five storeys to 24. The average number of beds increased from 82 to 579! The largest planning application for a new property in Melbourne comprised 901 beds across 49 storeys, while the tallest building is 63 storeys with 740 beds.</p>
<p>A large proportion of these beds are now sitting empty. These facilities provide an ideal means for developing parallel pathways for these students to return to Australia without using existing channels for repatriating Australians. Whole buildings with hundreds of beds could easily be dedicated to housing the international students waiting to begin or resume their studies here. </p>
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<img alt="view of Unilodge student accommodation near ANU in Canberra" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372402/original/file-20201201-13-nke7zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/372402/original/file-20201201-13-nke7zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372402/original/file-20201201-13-nke7zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372402/original/file-20201201-13-nke7zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372402/original/file-20201201-13-nke7zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372402/original/file-20201201-13-nke7zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/372402/original/file-20201201-13-nke7zh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Purpose-built student accommodation, such as this property in Canberra, has the capacity and facilities to quarantine returning international students.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/canberra-australia-12-dec-2016-view-1115541554">EQRoy/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>How would student quarantine work?</h2>
<p>The design of these buildings varies considerably. Authorities would be able to choose from many different bedroom and communal space configurations. </p>
<p>At first, it is likely quarantine authorities will want students to be kept in isolation for 14 days, so student apartments with their own kitchenettes and bathrooms are likely to be chosen. Over time, as confidence builds and systems to manage risks are refined, small clusters may be possible, using buildings in which several rooms share a kitchen and living space.</p>
<p>In either model, student accommodation properties are better suited to quarantine than hotels. They already provide pastoral care, security and staff attuned to the needs of newly arrived young people as a matter of course. </p>
<p>They should have no trouble implementing rigorous quarantine requirements to ensure no further outbreaks are caused by contagion through support staff, as has occurred in other contexts in Melbourne and Adelaide. Staff would have minimal contact with student residents. Meals could be left at the door, and rubbish collected at the door. </p>
<p>Staff and education providers could deliver support services by phone and video. Many universities are already providing daily exercise classes and arranging virtual meet-ups. These programs could easily be tailored to students in quarantine.</p>
<p>We have learned much this year about how to reduce the risk of transmission from incoming travellers. We know contact between quarantine workers and the broader community poses a serious risk. Thus, most staff working in student quarantine facilities would likely live on site. The scale of the newer properties makes this easy to implement.</p>
<p>Risks can be further reduced by arranging direct flights from a city with few cases to an Australian city where the students are transported directly to one facility, thereby avoiding flight transfers in busy hub airports. Testing would be required prior to departure and again before leaving quarantine. Staff would be tested regularly.</p>
<h2>Students and education providers cover costs</h2>
<p>These arrangements need place no burden on the Australian community. The Darwin model, in which students pay for their flights and the university covers quarantine costs, seems like a reasonable split.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-universities-could-lose-19-billion-in-the-next-3-years-our-economy-will-suffer-with-them-136251">Australian universities could lose $19 billion in the next 3 years. Our economy will suffer with them</a>
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<p>Curiously, Charles Darwin University was not the first Australian university to organise charter flights and dedicated quarantine arrangements for students. In September, <a href="https://www.rmit.edu.vn/news/all-news/2020/sep/rmit-vietnam-students-returned-home-through-bamboo-airways-partnership">RMIT chartered a flight</a> from Melbourne to Vietnam to return 270 people, including many students from RMIT’s Vietnam campus who had been on exchange in Melbourne when the virus hit, as well as RMIT staff and business partners. A second RMIT charter flight from Melbourne landed in Da Nang on November 28.</p>
<p>Australia’s international education sector has the capacity to manage such logistics. Our universities have extensive experience in moving tens of thousands of students around the world every year. Our accommodation providers have huge capacity in new facilities specifically designed for students.</p>
<p>Expanding parallel pathways for students to return to Australia need not interfere at all with the return of Australians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150180/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Ziguras received funding from the City of Melbourne for this research and has an affiliation with the International Education Association of Australia as the Association's Research Director. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Alves received funding from the City of Melbourne for this research. </span></em></p>Australia has student accommodation with nearly 100,000 beds, many now empty. The large purpose-built student housing facilities are well suited for quarantining returning international students.Christopher Ziguras, Professor of Global Studies, RMIT UniversityTom Alves, Head of Development, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1463952020-09-30T06:31:08Z2020-09-30T06:31:08ZWhich Australian destinations lose, and which may win, without international tourism<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/360648/original/file-20200929-18-1omywtq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C0%2C5760%2C3673&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Busselton, Western Australia.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Christmas promises the gift of open travel within Australia, and possibly <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-a-trans-tasman-travel-bubble-makes-a-lot-of-sense-for-australia-and-new-zealand-137878">to New Zealand</a> and even other <a href="https://theconversation.com/sun-sand-and-uncertainty-the-promise-and-peril-of-a-pacific-tourism-bubble-139661">Pacific Island nations</a>. </p>
<p>But it seems increasingly likely international borders will remain largely closed until <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-26/morrison-signals-australian-borders-may-be-closed-until-mid-2021">at least mid-2021</a>. The mothballing plans of <a href="https://theconversation.com/qantas-cutbacks-signal-hard-years-before-airlines-recover-141522">airlines such as Qantas</a> further suggest international travel will take years to recover to pre-pandemic levels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/qantas-cutbacks-signal-hard-years-before-airlines-recover-141522">Qantas cutbacks signal hard years before airlines recover</a>
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<p>For any tourist attraction primarily geared to international visitors, and for the hotels, restaurants and shops that cater to that tourist traffic, this spells trouble. </p>
<p>In 2019 <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/overseas-arrivals-and-departures-australia/latest-release#visitor-arrivals-monthly">more than 9 million</a> international tourists injected an estimated A$47 billion into the Australian economy. </p>
<p>On the other hand, local destinations that primarily attract local tourists could be in for boom times, attracting those who might otherwise have gone overseas. (In 2018-19, more than 10 million did so, <a href="https://cinenews.live/tourism-reels-as-australian-leaders-bicker-over-closed-borders-travel/">spending A$65 billion</a> in the process.) </p>
<p>Tourism, though, is not a zero-sum game. Not all of the money that might have been spent overseas will necessarily be spent on a local holiday. Even if it was, and the boom in domestic tourism more than made up for the loss of international tourists, the impact would be different across cities and locations. </p>
<p>That’s because local and foreign tourists tend to opt for different holiday experiences. International visitors are more attracted to the sights of Sydney and Melbourne, and the tourist hot spots of Queensland. Locals disproportionately want to get away from the city and avoid the tourist traps, relaxing in the country or on the coast.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="9wuh1" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9wuh1/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>Measuring international attraction</h2>
<p>To get a better sense of how closed international borders will affect local economies, we calculated locations’ reliance on international tourists using data distilled from <a href="https://www.tripadvisor.com.au/">TripAdvisor</a>, a popular travel booking and review website. </p>
<p>As a proxy for how many foreigners visit (and then review) a location relative to the number of domestic visitors, we looked at the number of reviews written in English relative to other languages. </p>
<p>Obviously this is an imperfect measure. A lot of foreign visitors come from New Zealand, Britain and Ireland, for example. Non-English speakers might use a different platform entirely. Nonetheless the results give us a basis to see where the absence of international tourists will likely be felt the hardest.</p>
<p>Using the data from TripAdvisor, the following chart shows the relative importance of tourism to local economies as well as the relative importance of international tourists.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="xDsu4" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xDsu4/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<p>At a glance, Cairns, the gateway to the Great Barrier Reef, stands out as the having the most to lose, due the relative importance of tourism, and international tourists, to its economy. </p>
<p>Sydney attracts the greatest proportion of foreign visitors, but is less dependent on tourism.</p>
<p>Regional towns like Tamworth in NSW and Bendigo in Victoria (bottom left) should be least affected.</p>
<hr>
<p><iframe id="x2eBV" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/x2eBV/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<hr>
<h2>The biggest losers</h2>
<p>About <a href="https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/ongoing/airport_traffic_data">two-thirds of all international passengers</a> touch down in Sydney and Melbourne. Our data from Tripadvisor also suggests this is where foreign visitors spend most of their time and money.</p>
<p>In Sydney the Opera House, Harbour Bridge and Bondi Beach are magnets for foreign tourists. Melbourne has the Eureka Skydeck and its Royal Botantic Gardens. Any business attached to the traffic for these attractions will face a tough year ahead.</p>
<p>The only upside is the big cities have more diverse labour markets. So those losing tourism jobs in these areas have a slightly better chance of finding work elsewhere.</p>
<p>The bigger risk comes to Cairns and other smaller tourist hubs with star attractions that attract a large flow of international tourists. For many businesses in these local economies a closed border could be an existential challenge. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-end-of-global-travel-as-we-know-it-an-opportunity-for-sustainable-tourism-133783">The end of global travel as we know it: an opportunity for sustainable tourism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The potential winners</h2>
<p>While our results are more robust for predicting where lost international tourism will hurt most, we can also see some possibilities of boom times for destinations that provide the experience local tourists are seeking.</p>
<p>Two examples are Echuca in Victoria and Busselton in Western Australia. These are very different towns. Echuca is an historic inland town on the Murray River often associated with paddle steamers. Busselton is a fishing town south of Perth long associated with lazy beach holidays. </p>
<p>Locations offering the more relaxed “getaway” experience might find their bookings overflowing this holiday season as Australians unable to visit Barcelona or Bali look to holiday closer to home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146395/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The tourist traps of Sydney, Melbourne and Queensland have the most to lose. Regional towns and coastal resorts have the most to gain.Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1448622020-08-28T02:05:29Z2020-08-28T02:05:29ZAustralians don’t have a ‘right’ to travel. Does COVID mean our days of carefree overseas trips are over?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355206/original/file-20200827-14-17tkt5s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australia is a nation of enthusiastic travellers, it is one of our defining national characteristics. </p>
<p>At any given time, <a href="https://www.pwc.com.au/publications/pdf/the-australian-diaspora.pdf">around a million</a> of us are living and working overseas. In 2019, a record <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/lookup/3401.0Media%20Release1Dec%202019">11.3 million</a> Australian residents went on short-term trips, double the figure of ten years earlier. </p>
<p>But COVID-19 has radically changed our capacity to go and be overseas. Will we ever travel so easily and readily again?</p>
<h2>You don’t have the ‘rights’ you probably thought you had</h2>
<p>Travel may be of <a href="https://www.traveller.com.au/why-do-australians-travel-so-much-gk8ind">huge importance</a> to Australians, but it is not a right or entitlement. </p>
<p>When you leave Australia, you also take on an element of risk. The federal government has long-warned their help in a crisis will have “<a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/i-need-urgent-help">limits</a>”. The consular services <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/consular-services/consular-services-charter">charter</a> says, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>You don’t have a legal right to consular assistance and you shouldn’t assume assistance will be provided.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Australians don’t even have the absolute right to a <a href="https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/every-assistance-and-protection-a-history-of-the-australian-passport.pdf">passport</a>, although in practice, it is rarely denied.</p>
<p>International law provides for the right to <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/rights-and-freedoms/freedom-movement">freedom of movement</a> - both in and out of Australia. As the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights says,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Everyone shall be free to leave any country, including his own. [This] shall not be subject to any restrictions except those which are provided by law, are necessary to protect national security, public order … <strong>public health</strong> or morals or the rights and freedoms of others … No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of the right to enter his own country. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Australia ratified the covenant in 1980, but there is <a href="https://www.ag.gov.au/rights-and-protections/human-rights-and-anti-discrimination/human-rights-scrutiny/public-sector-guidance-sheets/right-freedom-movement">no Commonwealth legislation</a> enshrining the right of freedom of movement. </p>
<p>Even if there was, this doesn’t mean it would override legitimate public health concerns.</p>
<h2>Coming home is no longer simple</h2>
<p>In March, when the pandemic took off, the Morrison government advised Australians overseas <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/17/coalitions-second-multibillion-dollar-coronavirus-stimulus-expected-to-target-businesses-and-low-income-earners">to return home</a>. </p>
<p>But coming back is no longer a simple question of booking a ticket and getting on a flight. For one thing, the global airline industry <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/laurabegleybloom/2020/06/27/airlines-coronavirus-travel-bankruptcy/#7c8cc8395f69">has collapsed</a>, making available flights scarce. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-airlines-that-can-pivot-to-ultra-long-haul-flights-will-succeed-in-the-post-coronavirus-era-140466">Why airlines that can pivot to ultra-long-haul flights will succeed in the post-coronavirus era</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>As part of Australia’s COVID response, caps have also now been placed on international arrivals. In July, the number of Australian citizens and residents allowed into the country was then reduced by a third, from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-10/national-cabinet-international-arrivals-coronavirus-quarantine/12441932">about 7,000 to about 4,000 a week</a>, to ease the pressure on the hotel quarantine system. This system will be in place until <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/national-cabinet-7aug2020">at least October</a>. </p>
<p>Prime Minister Scott Morrison explained he knew this made it more difficult for people to come home, but the policy was not “surprising or unreasonable”. Rather, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>[it will] ensure that we could put our focus on the resources needed to do testing and tracing.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Nightmare logistics</h2>
<p>According to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, <a href="https://www.aap.com.au/thousands-of-aussies-trying-to-return-home/">more than 371,000 </a>Australians overseas have returned since March. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/more-than-18-000-australians-stranded-overseas-by-coronavirus-are-still-trying-to-return-home">more than 18,000</a> are still stuck overseas, saying they want to come home. Last week, a Senate inquiry heard <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/20/travel-industry-attacks-state-premiers-saying-border-closures-cost-84m-a-day">about 3,000</a> of this group were “vulnerable” for medical and financial reasons.</p>
<p>There are a growing number of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-23/coronavirus-pandemic-why-so-many-australians-still-to-come-home/12464258?nw=0">media reports</a> detailing the stories of those stranded overseas. Many are <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-looking-at-options-to-help-australians-stranded-overseas-20200821-p55o4g.html">desperate to return</a> for financial and personal reasons. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Man in mask at airport, looking at ticket." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355085/original/file-20200827-14-10eoe8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355085/original/file-20200827-14-10eoe8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355085/original/file-20200827-14-10eoe8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355085/original/file-20200827-14-10eoe8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=434&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355085/original/file-20200827-14-10eoe8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355085/original/file-20200827-14-10eoe8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355085/original/file-20200827-14-10eoe8t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More than 18,000 Australians are still overseas and want to come home.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>People have spoken about the complex logistics involved in returning - including <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/young-australians-stuck-overseas-flight-caps/12571500">lack of available flights</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/07/unethical-australians-trying-to-fly-home-claim-airlines-cancelling-economy-tickets-to-sell-more-first-class-seats">lack of affordable flights</a> - with reports of tickets costing <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/can-we-still-call-australia-home-the-refrain-of-expats-facing-shut-borders-and-20k-flights-20200819-p55n4i.html#comment">as much as A$20,000</a> - strict border controls <a href="https://www.worldaware.com/covid-19-alert-uae-clarified-restrictions-residents-nationals-wishing-exit-country-late-july-1">to exit</a> the country they are in, and the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-13/covid-travellers-charged-to-pay-for-coronavirus-quarantine-in-sa/12450150">cost of quarantining</a> when they get home.</p>
<p>Internal <a href="https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067">border closures</a> in Australia have added a further level of complexity.</p>
<p>On Friday, The Sydney Morning Herald reported the Morrison government was drawing up new plans <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rescue-plan-to-bring-home-stranded-aussies-from-overseas-20200827-p55ptr.html">to evacuate Australians</a> stuck overseas.</p>
<p>It is worth noting that despite people’s understandable frustrations, the Australian government has limited options to help here - and the options they do have are not simple. They can potentially charter flights or cruise ships, but this is not straightforward because it requires agreements from host countries, available planes and ships, and can be hugely expensive.</p>
<h2>Leaving Australia is no longer simple, either</h2>
<p>Less visible, but very concerning from a <a href="https://www.traveller.com.au/covid19-pandemic-and-border-closures-why-australians-are-banned-from-international-travel-h1pds6">rights</a> perspective, is the Australians who are stuck in Australia. A state generally should allow citizens to leave their own country. </p>
<p>There are wide-ranging <a href="https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/crisis/covid-19-and-travel">bans</a> on people leaving Australia during the coronavirus pandemic, with a limited range of <a href="https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia">exemptions</a>.</p>
<p>There are obviously <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/i-am-on-prison-island-australia-s-travel-ban-tearing-families-apart-20200707-p559z4.html">compelling reasons</a> why people will still want to travel, given Australia’s strong international connections, especially when close relatives are ill or dying overseas. </p>
<p>But again, we don’t actually have a “right” under domestic law to leave Australia - with the federal government able to control our movements under the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/F2020L00306">Biosecurity Determination 2020</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ruby-princess-inquiry-blames-nsw-health-officials-for-debacle-144512">Ruby Princess inquiry blames NSW health officials for debacle</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Between March 25 and August 16, Australian Border Force received <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-businessman-given-travel-permit-to-pick-up-a-luxury-yacht-20200821-p55o8s.html">104,785 travel exemption requests</a>. Of these, 34,379 were granted a discretionary exemption. Some perhaps more discretionary than others - entrepreneur Jost Stollmann was granted an <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-businessman-given-travel-permit-to-pick-up-a-luxury-yacht-20200821-p55o8s.html">exemption</a> to travel overseas to pick up his new luxury yacht. </p>
<h2>The way we think about travel needs to change</h2>
<p>Significant Australia’s diplomatic resources have been going into supporting Australians overseas during COVID-19. In July, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade reported <a href="https://www.themandarin.com.au/136103-more-than-80-of-dfat-staff-supported-covid-19-response-effort/">80% of its staff</a> took part in the response effort. </p>
<p>Secretary Frances Adamson has <a href="https://beta.dfat.gov.au/news/speech/making-good-decisions-time-overload-frances-adamson">also noted</a> her department’s approach to COVID-19 had to go “well beyond what’s written in our consular charter”. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Young woman taking a selfie against Russian skyline." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355208/original/file-20200827-16-yn31u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355208/original/file-20200827-16-yn31u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355208/original/file-20200827-16-yn31u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355208/original/file-20200827-16-yn31u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355208/original/file-20200827-16-yn31u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355208/original/file-20200827-16-yn31u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355208/original/file-20200827-16-yn31u8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pre-COVID, there were more than one million Australians living and working overseas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given the range of pressing <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-china-us-rivalry-is-not-a-new-cold-war-it-is-way-more-complex-and-could-last-much-longer-144912">foreign policy issues</a> at the moment, a serious question is how much of the Department of Foreign Affairs’ time and attention should be spent on consular services? What is being lost in other diplomatic efforts trying to get Australians home? </p>
<p>Australians need to grapple with the idea that the government doesn’t have to “get them back” if they travel overseas (even if it wants to). And under Australian law, we don’t have a “right” to leave the country. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-covid-19-could-impact-travel-for-years-to-come-142971">How COVID-19 could impact travel for years to come</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We don’t know how long these COVID changes will last - particularly if efforts to <a href="https://theconversation.com/creating-a-covid-19-vaccine-is-only-the-first-step-itll-take-years-to-manufacture-and-distribute-144352">create a vaccine</a> are not successful. So, the way we think of travel and our risk calculations may unfortunately need to change. This might result in the biggest shift in our travel mindset since the 1950s, when international travel opened up to ordinary Australians.</p>
<p>With rising awareness of <a href="https://davidsuzuki.org/what-you-can-do/air-travel-climate-change/">climate impacts of travel</a>, this may not be a wholly negative development. But a deeper conversation is still required about the right to freedom of movement for Australian citizens.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144862/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Susan Harris Rimmer receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the International Women's Development Agency and Chatham House (UK). </span></em></p>Australia is a nation of enthusiastic travellers. But coronavirus has radically changed our capacity to go and be overseas.Susan Harris Rimmer, Professor and Director of the Policy Innovation Hub, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.