tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/iowa-caucus-14646/articlesIowa caucus – The Conversation2024-01-22T20:18:30Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210112024-01-22T20:18:30Z2024-01-22T20:18:30ZWhy New Hampshire and Iowa don’t make sense as the opening rounds of presidential campaigns<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569408/original/file-20240115-224994-2eqxn5.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5973%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Nikki Haley in a crush of reporters after filing paperwork to enter the New Hampshire primary, Oct. 13, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1733696158?adppopup=true">Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://apnews.com/article/desantis-iowa-caucuses-election-2024-b41c967b94fda070dfb70dfb1bdcfa44">Iowa</a> and <a href="https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-primary-date-secretary-state-scanlan-552decd9c90f1e434d4141ad44bc1322">New Hampshire</a> have long been the first states to hold presidential contests in election years. </p>
<p>But should they go first? </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=FeSk64QAAAAJ&hl=en">political scientist who studies Congress and elections</a>, I know that this largely unquestioned influence of the two states raises serious concerns around fairness, diversity and political representation. Here they are:</p>
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<h2>They don’t represent the country</h2>
<p>White, non-Hispanic residents make up <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/IA">84%</a> and <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/NH/PST045222">89%</a> of Iowa and New Hampshire respectively, compared with just <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045223">58%</a> of the nation as a whole. Iowa and New Hampshire are not representative of the U.S., particularly on the basis of race. </p>
<p>This matters because the presidency is a national office that affects everyone. Because of the boost in <a href="https://rollcall.com/2024/01/10/iowa-vs-new-hampshire-which-matters-more-in-predicting-presidential-nominees/">political momentum</a>, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1532673X9101900103">media coverage</a> and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15377857.2011.540189">donations</a> that a win in Iowa or New Hampshire can provide, their choices have a bigger effect on the race than most other states. Candidates recognize this and campaign accordingly: <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/538/busy-campaign-schedule-save-trumps-gop-primary-opponents/story?id=106292772">Nearly 80% of all Republican candidates’ events</a> through mid-January 2024 had taken place in Iowa and New Hampshire. </p>
<h2>Staggering the primaries isn’t fair</h2>
<p>American elections are carried out by a <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/election-administration-at-state-and-local-levels">decentralized system</a>. States and parties choose to hold primary elections at different times throughout an election year leading up to the party conventions. </p>
<p>Even if Iowa and New Hampshire were a perfect demographic mirror of the country, the process would still be unfair to states that don’t vote early. In almost all modern cases, the primaries in both major parties have been all but wrapped up by April, leaving dozens of states that had not yet held primaries essentially without a voice in the process. </p>
<p>In the 2020 Democratic primary, for example, Joe Biden’s main rival – <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/08/bernie-sanders-suspends-his-presidential-campaign-175137">Sen. Bernie Sanders – suspended his campaign</a> before 26 states and territories had even held their contests.</p>
<p>Later states might have a kind of information advantage. For example, some states will likely have the benefit of seeing the outcomes of some of Donald Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigations-civil-criminal.html">many legal cases</a>, while Iowa and New Hampshire voters will not.</p>
<p>But this advantage cuts both ways. Voters in later-voting states often don’t even see the same slate of candidates on their ballot as Iowans do. Now that Gov. Ron DeSantis has suspended his campaign, most of the country’s voters will never have gotten a chance to weigh in on him. </p>
<h2>What are the alternatives?</h2>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">After Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 South Carolina primary, Democrats moved that state’s 2024 primary to an earlier date.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Different, more diverse states could go first on the primary calendar. For example, frontloading bigger states like California, Illinois or Texas would certainly bring a broader swath of voters into the mix; but it also would make person-to-person campaigning more difficult. It’s also politically fraught: Democrats moved South Carolina earlier in their own primaries in 2024, but it was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/10/us/politics/iowa-new-hampshire-democrats.html">perceived by many</a> as a move to boost incumbent Biden, who lost Iowa and New Hampshire in the 2020 primaries, but won South Carolina.</p>
<p>A more substantial reform could create a single primary election day for all states – how the U.S. does every other election in this country. </p>
<p>Small states would surely dislike this reform: By the current method of staggering elections, these states can shine individually, rather than get lost in the mix of larger states with more voters and delegates. Staggered primaries might also help voters get to know the candidates on a more intimate basis, and political science says voters think of politics <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11109-020-09592-8">in personal terms</a>. </p>
<p>But the current cost – essentially disenfranchising people in later-voting states – might not be worth it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221011/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two states that are not representative of the US, particularly in terms of race, have outsize influence in the presidential campaign.Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2197782024-01-18T13:28:38Z2024-01-18T13:28:38ZWomen presidential candidates like Nikki Haley are more likely to change their positions to reach voters − but this doesn’t necessarily pay off<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568066/original/file-20240105-19-uz1nkq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley greets supporters on Jan. 3, 2024, at a bar in Londonderry, N.H. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/londonderry-nh-former-south-carolina-governor-and-news-photo/1902583157?adppopup=true">Erin Clark/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has said that she is “<a href="https://apnews.com/article/nikki-haley-abortion-republican-primary-1827870a52349f3ee2f0c2b50e110b3b">very pro-life,</a>” she has also said that abortion is a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“personal choice</a>.” Her wording on different thorny political issues such as abortion has left <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">some voters confused</a> about where she actually stands.</p>
<p>This has led some political observers, such as Politico journalist Michael Kruse, to say that Haley has “made a career of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/29/nikki-haley-profile-trump-gop-00118794">taking both sides</a>,” citing her positions on issues such as identity politics, Donald Trump and abortion.</p>
<p>In the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucuses, an Iowa voter praised Haley for pursing a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2023/12/18/nikki-haley-democrats-republicans-presidential-2024/">“political middle,”</a> noting this allowed the former South Carolina governor to “compromise” and work “both sides.” Conversely, some conservative commentators have also suggested that Haley’s approach is <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-brace-nikki-haley-ron-desantis-showdown-debates-rcna117786">“inauthentic</a>.” </p>
<p>Haley placed third in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">drawing support from 19% of voters</a> there. </p>
<p>Polls on Jan. 16, 2024, showed Trump’s lead over Haley in the New Hampshire primary, set for <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/">Jan. 23, narrowing</a>. </p>
<p>We are <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/Shawn-J-Parry-Giles-2037362650">communication and English</a> scholars <a href="https://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/english/about-us/faculty/bios/david-kaufer.html">who study</a> the role of language and persuasion in politics. We are particularly interested in the ways that speakers and writers adapt their messages and language in different situations and among various voters. We call this concept rhetorical adaptivity. </p>
<p>Our research shows that women presidential candidates, more than the men they run against, often speak differently to different audiences in pursuit of moderation and common ground. They also tend to shift their strategies and messages in response to criticism. And they often pay a price for it.</p>
<h2>Rhetoric and presidential campaigns</h2>
<p>Politicians changing their words and messages to appeal to different audiences is the subject of a book we co-authored in 2023, <a href="https://msupress.org/9781611864663/hillary-clintons-career-in-speeches/#:%7E:text=Hillary%20Clinton's%20Career%20in%20Speeches%20combines%20statistical%20text%2Dmining%20methods,political%20women%20in%20U.S.%20history">“Hillary Clinton’s Career in Speeches</a>: The Promises and Perils of Women’s Rhetorical Adaptivity.”</p>
<p>This project examined how Clinton, her presidential opponents in 2008 and 2016, and the <a href="https://cawp.rutgers.edu/election-watch/presidential-watch-2020">Democratic women</a> who ran for president in 2020 campaigned differently. We found that women more commonly adjusted their language and reshaped their positions to appeal to more voters and to manage the controversies they faced.</p>
<p>In 2016, for example, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/08/hillary-clinton-abortion/494723/">Hillary Clinton tried to find more of a middle ground</a> on abortion by referring to the “fetus” as an “unborn person” and talking about restrictions on “late-term abortions” – even as she defended a “pro-choice” position. </p>
<p>Both Clinton and Haley opponents have questioned their authenticity, citing the politicians’ shifting language and positions. Such challenges aimed to undermine their candidacies by suggesting they lacked the character to be president.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Hillary Clinton wears a red pantsuit and gestures while standing at a podium, in front of a large crowd of people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568069/original/file-20240105-29-hul4co.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Hilary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, speaks to a crowd in North Carolina shortly before Election Day on Nov. 8.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-nominee-former-secretary-of-state-news-photo/621754706?adppopup=true">Zach Roberts/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Haley’s rhetorical maneuvers</h2>
<p>Haley’s critics also cite her shifting positions, including on issues such as abortion, Palestinians in Gaza and Donald Trump to argue she lacks a political core. </p>
<p>Former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, was quick to condemn Haley’s “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/us/abortion-pence-haley-debate.html">compromising stance</a>” on abortion during the August 2023 Republican debate. </p>
<p>Haley’s opponents have also challenged her changing positions on the Israel-Hamas war. As the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Haley supported Israel and disparaged the U.N.’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/nikki-haley-israel-trump.html">Palestinian refugee agency</a> for “using American money to feed Palestinian hatred of the Jewish state.”</p>
<p>Yet, in the early days of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/us/politics/desantis-haley-gaza-refugees-israel.html#:%7E:text=%2C%E2%80%9D%20he%20said.-,Ms.,a%20longstanding%20relationship%20with%20Hamas.">Haley showed more sympathy for the Palestinians</a>. </p>
<p>Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis ridiculed Haley’s compassion as being “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/desantis-haley-gaza-israel-hamas-war-00121869">politically correct</a>.” Haley reaffirmed her pro-Israel priorities in response during a <a href="https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2023/10/20/nikki-haley-says-she-would-support-israel-strengthen-u-s-military-as-president/">speech in Cedar Rapids, Iowa</a>, in mid-October 2023. Haley said she supported Israel and called for the elimination of Hamas. Concern for the Palestinians slipped down the ladder of her priorities.</p>
<p>As a U.N. ambassador, meanwhile, Haley was unwavering in her support for Trump. In her 2019 book, “<a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9781250266552/withallduerespect">With All Due Respect</a>,” Haley concluded: “In every instance I dealt with Trump, he was truthful, he listened and he was great to work with.”</p>
<p>Since then, Haley has carved a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">middle ground</a> approach to Trump. She has argued, “<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/timeline-nikki-haleys-trump-statements-rcna70456">We need him in the Republican Party</a>. I don’t want us to go back to the days before Trump.” </p>
<p>Yet, in other contexts, she <a href="https://apnews.com/article/jewish-republicans-trump-desantis-2024-45ee4b88592754dfd6ed5332612373b6">disparages Trump</a> for <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikki-haley-embraces-trump-in-her-vision-of-gop-future-11633424400">sowing “chaos, vendettas and drama</a>.” </p>
<p><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-nikki-haley-opens-trump-israel/story?id=105523630">Trump called her out</a> on this discrepancy in the fall of 2023. “She criticizes me one minute, and 15 minutes later, she un-criticizes me.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley wears a white jacket and stands in front of a group of seated people, with the backdrop of the American flag. She holds a microphone and points her finger towards the crowd." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568068/original/file-20240105-24-l84j8b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign town hall event in Rye, N.H., on Jan. 2, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-un-ambassador-and-2024-republican-presidential-news-photo/1895740236?adppopup=true">Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Haley’s character woes</h2>
<p>Other critics frame Haley’s positions as “flip-flopping.” They don’t interpret what she is doing as moderating her positions or using the language of compromise to build consensus. </p>
<p>Time magazine ran a headline in February 2023 that read: “A Brief History of <a href="https://time.com/6252040/nikki-haley-donald-trump-relationship-history/">Nikki Haley’s Biggest Flip Flops on Trump</a>.” In March 2023, The New York Times featured an opinion piece titled, “The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/nikki-haley-president.html">Serene Hypocrisy of Nikki Haley</a>.” </p>
<p>Challenging the authenticity of presidential candidates is commonplace, but it is especially piercing when the challenge is directed against women candidates. In presidential politics, research shows that <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/glennllopis/2014/02/03/the-most-undervalued-leadership-traits-of-women/?sh=3b7e486338a1">women are conditioned</a> to be uniters, consensus-builders and mitigators of any negativity they face. </p>
<p>Yet, efforts to do this and still “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2023/12/31/desantis-christie-haley-slavery-comments-acostanr-brownstein-vpx.cnn">be all things to all people</a>” often result in women candidates falling into gaffe traps. </p>
<p>Haley’s <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/12/30/1222272908/week-in-politics-haleys-gaffe-trump-on-primary-ballots-biden-and-southern-border">initial refusal to associate “slavery” with the Civil War</a> in December 2023 reinforced a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/28/us/politics/nikki-haley-civil-war-slavery.html">southern trope</a> that some Republicans of color called a “<a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/republicans-of-color-nikki-haley-civil-war-00133286">tactical blunder</a>.”</p>
<h2>Women’s election challenges</h2>
<p>More leadership experts are recognizing the benefits of political candidates integrating multiple perspectives into their thinking and speech. The <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2018/09/20/2-views-on-leadership-traits-and-competencies-and-how-they-intersect-with-gender/">Pew Research Center</a> found in 2018 that in politics as well as business, women are perceived to be more “compassionate” and “empathic” and are more likely to work out “compromises” than men. </p>
<p>Yet, in presidential campaigns, and especially primaries, compromise, adaptivity and problem-solving are exchanged for hubris, rigidity and ideological purity. Playing to the political middle is treated as politically evasive and opportunistic. </p>
<p>Eventually, women playing to the middle become more gaffe-prone as the campaign unfolds. Women, more than the men they run against, are granted minimal room by opponents and pundits for unforced errors before they are quickly dismissed as “<a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2112616119">unelectable</a>.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/219778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Nikki Haley is the latest American female politician to shift her language, depending on whom she is talking to and where. But this tactic has a flip side, prompting criticism of her as inconsistent.Shawn J. Parry-Giles, Professor of Communication, University of MarylandDavid Kaufer, Professor Emeritus of English, Carnegie Mellon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213062024-01-17T01:30:34Z2024-01-17T01:30:34ZWhy two largely white and tiny states still matter so much to the US presidential election<p>Former President Donald Trump’s commanding, and expected, victory in this week’s Iowa caucuses has <a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-stroll-to-victory-in-iowa-was-a-foregone-conclusion-this-doesnt-make-it-any-less-shocking-221207">confirmed</a> his frontrunner status in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. </p>
<p>With his closest rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley lagging far behind, it seems the Republican primary contest is over before it has even begun. </p>
<p>Since the 1970s, Iowa has kicked off the US presidential election year with the first caucuses of the primary season. This changed for Democrats following the 2020 election, when the party ditched the first-in-the-nation caucuses for a mail-in vote. The results of this will be known on March 5 (often known as Super Tuesday).</p>
<p>Republicans, however, have stuck with the caucuses. With Republicans in 49 states still yet to cast a vote in the 2024 nominating contest, why is it that an overwhelmingly white state of 3 million continues to hold such sway over the fate of one of the world’s largest democracies?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-stroll-to-victory-in-iowa-was-a-foregone-conclusion-this-doesnt-make-it-any-less-shocking-221207">Donald Trump's stroll to victory in Iowa was a foregone conclusion. This doesn't make it any less shocking</a>
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<h2>How Iowa was put on the map</h2>
<p>Iowa reached the top of the nominating calendar for a string of logistical reasons — some even say by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/why-iowa-gets-to-go-first-and-other-facts-about-tonights-caucus/2011/08/25/gIQAJtygYP_blog.html">accident</a> — when the Democratic Party reformed its candidate selection procedures after the <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">tumultuous</a> 1968 Chicago party convention. </p>
<p>At first, few noticed or cared about the Iowa caucuses’ early position. But this all changed in 1976. Little-known presidential hopeful <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/426729/">Jimmy Carter</a> led a grassroots campaign in Iowa — and the next-in-line New Hampshire primary — to deliver unexpected early victories in the Democratic nominating contest. He seized upon these two early wins to catapult himself onto the national stage and ultimately win the White House.</p>
<p>Carter showed how these early testing grounds of voter support can propel candidates from obscurity to national fame. Once he put the Iowa caucuses on the map, the state sought to ensure they remained there. </p>
<p>Both the Democratic and Republican parties officially cemented Iowa’s first-in-nation status through state laws and party rules. Since then, the caucuses have become not just an opportunity for candidates to make their mark, but a boon for the state’s economy, raking in <a href="https://www.axios.com/local/des-moines/2022/04/19/iowa-caucuses-potential-loss-des-moines-revenue">millions</a> every cycle.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-presidential-primaries-are-arcane-complex-and-unrepresentative-so-why-do-americans-still-vote-this-way-129759">The US presidential primaries are arcane, complex and unrepresentative. So why do Americans still vote this way?</a>
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<h2>An unrepresentative state</h2>
<p>Iowa might be a big electoral prize, but the Mid-Western state itself is tiny and hardly representative of America as a whole. Iowa is <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population">more rural</a> than the national average and among the country’s least diverse states. </p>
<p>The population in Iowa is <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/IA/RHI125222">about 90% white</a>, compared to <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045222">76%</a> nationally. <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/IA/PST045222">Just 4%</a> of Iowans identify as Black or African American. </p>
<p>Many rightly <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/bizarre-unfair-iowa-should-never-go-first-again-20200205-p53xxk.html">point out</a> that Iowa’s demographics more closely resemble the 19th-century United States than the America we know today. This is part of why the state’s outsized electoral role has come under increasing scrutiny in recent years. </p>
<p>In 2022, President Joe Biden and the Democratic National Committee announced they would promote <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/01/us/politics/biden-dnc-primary-south-carolina-2024.html">South Carolina</a> to the front of the 2024 Democratic primary contests ahead of Iowa and New Hampshire (also small and overwhelmingly white). </p>
<p>While Iowa was successfully moved back in the schedule, New Hampshire held onto its first-in-the-nation status, prompting Biden to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/biden-will-not-be-on-the-new-hampshire-primary-ballot-what-does-that-mean-for-voters">take his name off</a> this year’s primary ballot. The vote will be held on January 23.</p>
<h2>As Iowa and New Hampshire go, so goes the nation (sometimes)</h2>
<p>Iowa has, at best, a patchy record of predicting party nominees and presidents. </p>
<p>In the ten contested Democratic Iowa caucuses since 1976, the winner has gone on to secure the Democratic nomination in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">seven instances</a>. The most notable exception in recent times was Biden, who finished <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">fourth</a> in Iowa in 2020. Of these seven successful nominees, just two — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">Carter and Barack Obama</a> — would go on to become president. </p>
<p>The state’s Republican results are significantly more mixed. Just <a href="https://data.desmoinesregister.com/iowa-caucus/history/">three winners</a> of the eight contested caucuses since 1976 became the party’s nominee. Only one of those, George W. Bush, went on to win the White House.</p>
<p>Almost every major party nominee <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/13/only-two-recent-major-party-nominees-have-lost-both-iowa-new-hampshire/">since 1972</a> has, however, won in either Iowa or New Hampshire. The only two exceptions were Bill Clinton in 1992 and Biden in 2020.</p>
<p>Iowans and New Hampshirites are not clairvoyants with their fingers on the pulse of the nation. Yet their influence helps determine the presidential frontrunners, media narratives, donor contributions and campaign expenditures before millions of other Americans are able to vote. This can shape the rest of the election.</p>
<p>The reason for this is the structure of the US primary calendar. Because the contests are drawn out over five months, establishing early momentum is essential to carving out a path to the nomination, particularly given the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/11/01/1205728664/campaign-finance-donations-election-fec-fundraising-ad-spending">exorbitant cost</a> of running for president. </p>
<p>Until the structure of the US primary system changes, or another state replaces both Iowa and New Hampshire at the top of the primary calendars, the eyes of the world will continue to turn to both of these tiny states every four years.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: this story has been amended to correct how many Republican winners of Iowa went on to the win the White House. The story initially said two, George W. Bush and Gerald Ford, but Ford lost the general election in 1976.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221306/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Iowa and New Hampshire have long cemented their status as the first-in-the-nation deciders in presidential nominating contests. This outsized influence has increasingly come under scrutiny.Ava Kalinauskas, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre, University of SydneySamuel Garrett, Research Associate, United States Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212642024-01-16T18:49:52Z2024-01-16T18:49:52ZDeSantis-linked super PAC broke new ground in pushing campaign finance rules in Iowa in support of a 2nd-place finish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569595/original/file-20240116-27-akw4hz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis greets an audience in West Des Moines, Iowa, on caucus night on Jan. 15, 2024.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-florida-gov-ron-desantis-news-photo/1936462663?adppopup=true">Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/never-back-down-inc/C00834077/summary/2024">Never Back Down, the Ron DeSantis super PAC</a>, played an outsized role in the Iowa caucuses campaign of the Florida governor. Its impact on the results, in which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/01/16/us/iowa-caucus-election-news">DeSantis came in second</a> to former President Donald Trump, will likely remain an open question. </p>
<p>But one thing is sure: It mocked the already weak regulatory framework governing money in campaigns. </p>
<p>A PAC, or political action committee, is a group that is formed to support a candidate by <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/what-is-a-pac">raising and spending money on various activities</a>; it is not supposed to coordinate with the candidate it supports, nor should it be controlled by that candidate. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/super-pacs/2022">Super PACs</a> have been a force in caucus politics since 2012. That year featured the first nomination cycle after <a href="https://www.vox.com/2015/2/9/18088962/super-pacs-and-dark-money">the U.S. Supreme Court in the Citizens United decision opened the floodgates</a> for unregulated contributions and spending by outside groups. <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/super-pacs/2022">The only limits</a> currently imposed are that super PACs can’t contribute directly to federal candidates’ campaign funds, and they can’t coordinate with campaigns. Since 2012, super PACs have spent freely on advertising, <a href="https://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-012920/">dominating broadcast airwaves</a> in 2016 and 2020.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569613/original/file-20240116-27-q6ic9i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A yard sign promoting Ron DeSantis." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569613/original/file-20240116-27-q6ic9i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569613/original/file-20240116-27-q6ic9i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569613/original/file-20240116-27-q6ic9i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569613/original/file-20240116-27-q6ic9i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569613/original/file-20240116-27-q6ic9i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569613/original/file-20240116-27-q6ic9i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569613/original/file-20240116-27-q6ic9i.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Yard signs promoting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Sioux Center, Iowa, financed by Never Back Down, the super PAC promoting DeSantis for president in 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024IowaDeSantis/ffd5f056a7b54a77856a811aab26c7b0/photo?Query=Never%20Back%20Down%20DeSantis&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=3&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Tom Beaumont</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>In the 2024 Iowa caucuses campaign, the <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00834077/">DeSantis-backing super PAC</a> staked out some new territory by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/24/us/politics/ron-desantis-2024-super-pac.html">largely funding the candidate’s ground game</a>, recruiting and training organizers in Iowa and <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2024/01/15/ron-desantis-iowa-caucuses-republican-party-gop/72067254007/">sending them out</a> early to engage Iowa Republicans face-to-face.</p>
<p>But the new territory didn’t stop there. Never Back Down appeared to disregard that ban on coordination with the campaign. Super PACs and campaigns have developed <a href="https://campaignlegal.org/update/new-clc-report-unchecked-coordination-between-candidates-and-outside-groups-undermines">methods</a> to allow them to coordinate while preserving the image of independence. Yet, strangely, Never Back Down and the campaign seemed determined to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-big-bet-door-knocking-iowa-never-back-down-rcna131057">make their coordination transparent</a>. </p>
<p>The super PAC <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/politics/desantis-debate-strategy.html">boldly posted online its memo</a> laying out a proposed strategy for the candidate before the first GOP debate in August. The intent was never perfectly clear, but it succeeded in sending advice to the campaign.</p>
<p>Never Back Down appears to have <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/05/desantis-plane-super-pac/">helped pay for the candidate’s air travel</a>, according to The Washington Post.</p>
<p>The super PAC has <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/25/the-super-pac-frenzy-redefining-campaign-operations-00103483">recruited donors to contribute directly</a> to the campaign. It sponsored candidate events <a href="https://events.neverbackdown.org/e/Cedar-Rapids-Drop-By-with-Special-Guest-Ron-DeSantis">where it picked up the food tab for registered attendees</a>. The candidate arrived on the bus with the can’t-miss “Never Back Down” slogan plastered on the side. And the super PAC touted that the <a href="https://neverbackdown.org/press/never-back-down-reaches-3-million-doors/">candidate’s wife went door to door</a> with Never Back Down canvassers. </p>
<p>In December 2023, the <a href="https://campaignlegal.org/about-clc/our-mission-and-vision">Campaign Legal Center</a>, a nonpartisan campaign finance watchdog group, filed a complaint to the Federal Election Commission, charging that the campaign and the super PAC engaged <a href="https://campaignlegal.org/sites/default/files/2023-12/DeSantis%20Coordination%20Complaint%20%28Final%29.pdf">“in an illegal coordination scheme.”</a> A DeSantis spokesman <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/18/complaint-desantis-campaign-never-back-down-00132325">called the charges “baseless</a>.”</p>
<p>This might not be the biggest story to come out of Iowa. But it sends a notable and disturbing message to federal candidates, Democratic and Republican: Don’t let the law stand in your way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221264/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara A. Trish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In Iowa, the Ron DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down seemed intent on mocking the dividing line federal regulators set between campaigns and the PACs that support them.Barbara A. Trish, Professor of Political Science, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210942024-01-16T17:39:58Z2024-01-16T17:39:58ZIowa was different this time – even if the outcome was as predicted<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569568/original/file-20240116-29-ryzaij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump speaks in Des Moines, Iowa, shortly after his victory in the Iowa Caucus on Jan. 15, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/former-president-donald-trump-speaks-at-his-caucus-night-news-photo/1936448792?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images </a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Trounced, crushed, routed, dominated: Pick your verb to describe what former President Donald Trump did to his GOP rivals in the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html">Jan. 15, 2024 Iowa caucus</a>. The Conversation U.S. asked <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Timothy-Hagle">two scholars</a> to <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=WzUF8jAAAAAJ&hl=en">analyze the results</a>, in which Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second, with former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley a close third.</em></p>
<h2>This year’s unique features</h2>
<p><strong>Timothy Hagle, University of Iowa</strong></p>
<p>Each installment of the Iowa caucuses has unusual or particularly interesting aspects. The 2024 caucuses were no exception. Because the Democrats have an incumbent in the White House, there was little activity on their side of the aisle. Especially so because the Democratic National Committee <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-democrats-new-caucus-process-work/story?id=106133768">removed Iowa from its first-in-the-nation position</a>. As a result, Iowa Democrats <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-democrats-new-caucus-process-work/story?id=106133768">abandoned the traditional caucuses</a> in favor of a mail-in procedure.</p>
<p>Although the Republican caucus race was technically open, those challenging former President Donald Trump faced an uphill battle. He ran <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/us/politics/iowa-caucus-state-politics.html">as if he were an incumbent</a>. In addition, a “<a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/dangerous-cold-snap-blankets-iowa-ahead-of-caucuses-/7439184.html">rally-round-the-chief</a>” effect meant that his several <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/did-donald-trumps-indictments-boost-his-poll-numbers-1832694">indictments didn’t damage his standing</a> in the polls, and sometimes improved it. </p>
<p>Speaking of polls, another interesting aspect of this caucus season was how static the polls seemed to be. <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2024/01/13/iowa-poll-nikki-haley-leads-ron-desantis-ahead-of-republican-caucus-night-big-lead-for-donald-trump/72216523007/">Trump maintained a large lead</a> for the bulk of the period. DeSantis was in second and Haley in third for most of the campaign, after she surged following the first two debates. There was some movement among the other candidates, but mostly in the single-digits range.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Ron DeSantis wears a navy suit and bends down to shake people's hands as he walks on a stage. He stands in front of two large American flags." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569570/original/file-20240116-15-xk1ief.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Florida Governor and Republican presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis arrives at a watch party during the Iowa Caucus in West Des Moines on Jan. 15, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/florida-governor-and-republican-presidential-hopeful-ron-news-photo/1928402087?adppopup=true">Christian Monterrosa/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The weather was obviously a big factor for this caucus cycle. Two large snowstorms in the week before the caucuses caused <a href="https://apnews.com/article/iowa-winter-weather-caucus-campaign-events-canceled-a4fd8a5550a05166534f7b330560cbc9">campaign events to be postponed, canceled or moved online</a>. Candidates were trying to make their closing arguments; this disruption likely hurt their plans and disappointed voters still looking to make a final decision on whom to support. In addition, the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/15/weather/weather-iowa-caucuses-cold-dg/index.html">extreme cold and severe wind chills on caucus night</a> may have helped <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/16/iowa-caucus-turnout/">drive turnout to lower numbers</a> than any year since 2004.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Nikki Haley wears a pink blazer and speaks into a microphone, as she stands in front of a group of people sitting at tables watching her." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569573/original/file-20240116-15-gctpab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=532&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a campaign stop at a restaurant on Jan. 15, 2024, in Pella, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1935522708?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>A diss to Iowa voters</h2>
<p><strong>Stephen J. Farnsworth, University of Mary Washington</strong></p>
<p>A key claim that Iowa caucus defenders make is that voters there are particularly effective at evaluating candidates by running them through a gauntlet of in-person, community meetings from one end of the state to the other.</p>
<p>Of course, character should matter a great deal in evaluating possible presidents. In fact, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-iowa-caucuses-became-the-first-major-challenge-of-us-presidential-campaigns-220509">Iowa caucus first came into its own</a> in 1976 for just that reason. That year, voters saw <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2024/01/14/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/">Jimmy Carter</a>, a plain-spoken Georgia governor, as a strong moral contrast to former president Richard Nixon and the tumultuous years of Watergate.</p>
<p>But nearly 50 years later, Iowans apparently ignored Trump’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61084161">legal woes</a> and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2020/03/05/few-americans-express-positive-views-of-trumps-conduct-in-office/">questionable personal conduct</a> and gave him an overwhelming victory. </p>
<p>Much of this was the result of Trump’s <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/haley-desantis-to-debate-in-iowa-as-trump-again-skips-confrontation/7434375.html">refusal to participate</a> in any of the Iowa debates. Trump preferred to have fawning conversations with Fox News hosts, instead of doing many traditional, give-and-take <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/14/donald-trump-iowa-rally-republican-caucuses">community conversations</a> with thoughtful voters – the very reason for the Iowa Caucus. </p>
<p>In a sense, Trump <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/15/us/politics/iowa-caucus-state-politics.html">dissed Iowa voters</a>. And Iowa voters, as a group, let him get away with it – or even rewarded him for it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221094/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy Hagle is affiliated with Republicans.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>From the ‘static’ polls to Trump’s ‘dissing’ of voters, two political scientists look at the Iowa caucus and see more than just the fact that Trump won it, resoundingly.Timothy Hagle, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of IowaStephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs and Director of the UMW Center for Leadership and Media Studies, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201742024-01-16T13:25:01Z2024-01-16T13:25:01Z1 good thing about the Iowa caucuses, and 3 that are really troubling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568921/original/file-20240111-19-ds4fma.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=112%2C49%2C2238%2C1515&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appears at a Fox News town hall in Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 10, 2024. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-president-donald-news-photo/1923679596?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Every four years, the Iowa caucuses find new ways to become a problematic part of the presidential nomination process. Democrats have abandoned the Iowa-first tradition, at least for 2024, but Republicans went full speed ahead with the caucuses on Jan. 15, 2024.</p>
<p>If they were being honest, most politicians and political experts who are not from Iowa – and not planning to curry favor with Iowans someday – would concede that this caucus-first system is <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-caucuses-predict-president-history/story?id=106131420">far from the best way</a> to start to select a presidential nominee, especially considering the low voter turnout in an overwhelmingly white state. But changing old, familiar processes is never easy, particularly during these highly contentious times. </p>
<p>Even so, candidates who talk about the traditional first caucus state sometimes make a political misstep by being honest. </p>
<p>Earlier this month, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/04/us/politics/iowa-new-hampshire-primary-haley.html">Republican candidate Nikki Haley</a> dissed Iowa, telling a New Hampshire audience that their state primary that occurs after the Iowa caucuses would correct the mistakes made in Iowa. “You know Iowa starts it,” she said. “You know that you correct it.”</p>
<p>That’s the sort of thing a candidate trying to do well in Iowa says after the caucuses – not before.</p>
<p>With such honesty, it’s not surprising that former President <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/iowa/republican-presidential-primary">Donald Trump</a> earned 51% of the vote while GOP rivals Ron DeSantis could muster only 21% and Nikki Haley 19%. Further helping Trump was the shrinking field of GOP candidates that saw former Vice President <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mike-pence-2024-president-campaign-republican-trump-0ec44fc2a5b8683f34883e0ea72b2ab2">Mike Pence</a>, former New Jersey Gov. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/chris-christie-drops-2024-presidential-race-rcna127993">Chris Christie</a> and U.S. Senator <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/sen-tim-scott-drops-out-of-2024-presidential-race-shocking-donors-and-campaign-staff">Tim Scott</a> of South Carolina all drop out before the caucuses.</p>
<h2>Iowa’s upside for long-shot candidates</h2>
<p>Iowans, as well as residents of the traditional <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-hampshire-primary-date-2024-elections-first-in-the-nation-democrats/">first primary state of New Hampshire</a>, try to argue that their <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2022/10/27/iowa-poll-most-iowans-think-iowa-caucuses-should-remain-first/69561842007/">small-state selection processes</a> represent some of the last vestiges of <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1957/12/norman-rockwells-america/640584/">Norman Rockwell’s America</a>, where deliberate, sober voters offer a grateful nation the carefully considered <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/new-hampshire-primary-president-joe-biden-gov-chris-sununu/">assessments of candidates</a> that come from community meetings too numerous to count. </p>
<p>That part of the argument is largely true – caucusgoers and voters in both states seem to take the process of evaluating potential presidents <a href="https://wcfcourier.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/iowans-take-voting-seriously/article_117b21cf-afa2-53f7-a996-e89976f136dd.html">very seriously</a>.</p>
<p>Fans of the Iowa caucuses also note that <a href="https://www.cjonline.com/story/news/politics/2023/09/24/lesser-known-republican-presidential-candidates-hope-iowa-caucuses-lift-their-chances/70924419007/">lesser-known candidates</a> can compete without having huge campaign war chests or political experience. But how is being inexperienced in government or being unpopular with party donors considered a good things for selecting presidents? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A brown-skinned man holds a microphone as dozens of white people listen to his campaign speech." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568684/original/file-20240110-21-yws4jr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy speaks in Decorah, Iowa, on Jan. 7, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-businessman-vivek-news-photo/1915569886?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>This year, Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/02/politics/cnn-iowa-debate-qualified/index.html">star faded quickly</a>, and he failed to qualify for the final pre-Iowa debate hosted by CNN at Drake University in Des Moines. Ramaswamy could only <a href="https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/primaries-and-caucuses/results/iowa/republican-presidential-primary">pull in 7%</a> of Iowa caucus voters despite his boasts of visiting each of Iowa’s 99 counties, a feat officially known as a “<a href="https://politicaldictionary.com/words/full-grassley/">full Grassley</a>,” named for Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley.</p>
<p>That’s part of a pattern for previous shooting stars in Iowa, including <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN20107Z/">Pete Buttigieg</a> in 2020, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2015/10/23/ben-carson-charges-9-points-ahead-of-donald-trump-iowa-poll-gop/74278414/">Ben Carson</a> in 2016, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/01/21/145553419/iowa-gop-officially-declares-santorum-the-iowa-caucus-winner">Rick Santorum</a> in 2012, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWAT008623/">Mike Huckabee</a> in 2008 and <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dean-scream-remembering-infamous-iowa-caucus-speech/story?id=36711830">Howard Dean</a> in 2004. </p>
<p>They didn’t last all that long after Iowa. And in some cases, they began to flame out before the caucuses.</p>
<h2>Modern-day media realities</h2>
<p>Despite all the small-town narratives, Iowa’s caucus season increasingly has become a media-saturated process just like everything else in American politics.</p>
<p>And running in Iowa costs far more than in the past. </p>
<p>In the 2024 presidential campaign, Republican campaigns spent more than <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-spend-100-million-iowa-ads-come-rcna130856">US$100 million</a> on 2024 Iowa caucuses advertising, which amounts to about $600 for every Republican caucus participant. In the 2020 presidential campaign, the total amount of ad spending was <a href="https://www.kwwl.com/news/2020-political-ad-spending-how-much-was-spent/article_13729727-896a-505c-90fb-f08159f56b28.html">$44 million</a> – and that included spending from Democratic and Republican candidates. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman wearing a red dress holda a microphone in front of a sign that says Fox News Democracy '24." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568728/original/file-20240110-31-oznma0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley participates in a Fox News town hall in Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 8, 2024.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-former-u-n-ambassador-news-photo/1918255110?adppopup=true">Win McNamee/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The media’s outsized role involves more than just receiving inflated campaign spending. The fact that reporters focus on <a href="https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/">horse-race dynamics</a> and downplay issues has long been a problem that diminishes interest and voter turnout, as media scholar <a href="https://communication.gmu.edu/people/slichter">S. Robert Lichter</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=WzUF8jAAAAAJ">I</a> demonstrated in our 2010 book “<a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442200678/The-Nightly-News-Nightmare-Media-Coverage-of-U.S.-Presidential-Elections-1988-2008-Third-Edition">The Nightly News Nightmare</a>.”</p>
<p>Those who defend Iowa and New Hampshire say they are more accessible to lesser-known and inexperienced candidates, but national polling and fundraising, as well as media coverage, are increasingly used as criteria determining who can effectively participate in these small-state processes and who can’t.</p>
<h2>Long-standing flaws</h2>
<p>Another problem with Iowa is the <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/01/31/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses/">low level of turnout</a>, despite the state’s privileged position. The largest Republican caucus turnout was 180,000 voters in 2016, and the best year for <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/07/election-2020-democratic-iowa-caucuses-turnout-eclipsed-2016-fell-short-2008/4691004002/">Democratic turnout</a> was 240,000 voters in 2008, when Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton. </p>
<p>Neither number is all that impressive in a state with a population of <a href="https://publications.iowa.gov/135/1/profile/8-14.html#">nearly 3 million people</a> and about <a href="https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/ia">2 million registered voters</a>, of whom about 630,000 are registered Republicans. If Iowa switched to a primary, which would allow a daylong window for voting, evidence demonstrates there would be a lot more participation. Here’s why. </p>
<p>With limited exceptions, Iowa caucuses require a voter to appear in person during the evening in the middle of winter. This year, that meant at 7 p.m. on an evening that hit below-zero temperatures and heavy snow. Even for Iowans accustomed to the cold, turnout was lower as a result.</p>
<p>But unlike a caucus, a primary allows a person to devote only a few minutes to vote via mail or in person at a convenient time and place.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A white man carres his daughter on his shoulders as he walks with hundreds of other white people." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/568710/original/file-20240110-27-4k757a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida carries his daughter Madison while walking through the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines on Aug. 12, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-florida-gov-ron-desantis-news-photo/1610098448?adppopup=true">Brandon Bell/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Aside from the convenience factor, the major problem with the Iowa caucuses is that the state does not remotely look like America.</p>
<p>According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the vast majority – <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/states/iowa-population">88%</a> – of Iowans are white. For the U.S. as a whole, that figure is about <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045222">75%</a>. What that means is that caucus results may not be reflective of the nation as a whole but merely a snapshot of a certain small-town, folksy part of America.</p>
<h2>Vote-counting delays</h2>
<p>Maybe some of these problems could be excused if the process worked well. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/upshot/iowa-caucuses-errors-results.html">it does not</a>.</p>
<p>Despite decades of experience in running caucuses, Iowa has demonstrated that it frequently cannot count. The New York Times described the 2020 Iowa caucuses as an “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/us/politics/iowa-democratic-caucuses.html">epic meltdown</a>,” as results were not finalized for days.</p>
<p>The 2024 process went smoothly, but the 2020 caucuses weren’t the first to have problems. The 2012 Republican contest also suffered from <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/report-santorum-finished-34-votes-ahead-of-%20romney-in-new-iowa-tally-votes-from-8-precincts-missing/2012/01/19/gIQAJGuRAQ_story.html">counting misfires</a> that took two weeks to resolve. </p>
<p>A delay in reporting results is not necessarily a bad thing. One wants to ensure accuracy, and delays of days for election results are normal in closely fought contests. But Iowa has demonstrated that its caucuses seem to generate more problems when it comes to reporting results than primaries do.</p>
<p>Democrats <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iowa-politics-democrats-republican-campaign-1d624898">abandoned the 2024 Iowa caucuses</a> following the 2020 mess there and perhaps in part because President Joe Biden could hardly feel positively about the caucus system after <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/05/joe-biden-calls-4th-place-iowa-caucus-finish-gut-punch/4669943002/">his fourth-place finish</a> there in 2020.</p>
<p>This year, the Democratic process effectively bypasses Iowa and New Hampshire and starts with the South Carolina primary.</p>
<h2>A possible alternative?</h2>
<p>How might one fix these issues?</p>
<p>Well, scholars suggest a range of alternatives, including a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Imperfect-Primary-Oddities-Biases-and-%20Strengths-of-US-Presidential/Norrander/p/book/9780367274948">one-day, nationwide primary</a>, a small-state-first system that groups states of similar population sizes, or perhaps a series of five or so multistate regional primary contests, with the order of the regional groups determined by lottery. </p>
<p>None of these alternatives seems likely to happen, though, and that means the various problems with the Iowa caucus process will continue, regardless of which party is conducting one.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220174/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen J. Farnsworth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Iowa caucuses have long been an oddity in modern-day politics but remain a place where GOP candidates can test their presidential aspirations.Stephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies, University of Mary WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2212072024-01-16T03:29:08Z2024-01-16T03:29:08ZDonald Trump’s stroll to victory in Iowa was a foregone conclusion. This doesn’t make it any less shocking<p>Of course, on the day of the first nominating contest for the 2024 US presidential election, there was a storm. </p>
<p>In Iowa over the weekend, blizzards described as “<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/12/weather/winter-weather-alerts-blizzard-floods/index.html">life-threatening</a>” by the National Weather Service brought with them temperatures well below freezing, up to 25 centimetres of snow and ferocious winds. </p>
<p>In these terrible conditions on Monday night, Republicans in the Hawkeye state gathered to choose their preferred candidate for president of the United States. Polls had suggested for a long time that they had <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-16/trump-iowa-caucus-election-polls-begins-and-ends/103322016">already made their choice</a> – former President Donald Trump was set to win in a landslide. The only real question was who would snatch second place. </p>
<p>Iowa holds a caucus vote in presidential nominating contests, as opposed to most other states, which hold primary votes. In the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/01/11/1222881162/how-does-iowa-caucus-work">Iowa caucuses</a>, registered Republican voters gather in small groups in their local diners, schools and churches, hear from candidate representatives and each other, and vote privately for their preferred candidate. </p>
<p>As always in US electoral politics, turnout is the main game – which explains the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-67988791">focus on the weather</a> and how it might impact voters’ willingness to turn up. </p>
<h2>Iowa was always Trump’s for the taking</h2>
<p>Trump, who led recent polls by double digits, did not feel the pressure to mount the type of intensive campaigning that might be expected of a nominee wanting to maximise turnout and make a statement in the first nominating contest.</p>
<p>Why would he? Even when he was not physically present in the state – which was a lot of the time – this contest was already all about Trump. Even when the focus was ostensibly on the other candidates, what Republican voters really wanted to know was how they felt about Trump and his many felonies and constitutional breaches, and how they could have the temerity to challenge someone who has come to dominate the Republican Party to such an unprecedented extent. </p>
<p>As the snow closed in and the roads iced over, those leading competitors – Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy – scrambled to reschedule and relocate their campaign events in the final days before the caucus. But they were fighting more than just the weather. </p>
<p>As bitter as the campaigning between these candidates has been, it has been almost entirely aimed at each other. Not one of them has been prepared to make a substantive critique of Trump and what he stands for. Each has sought to cloak themselves in at least part of his political aura. And each was battling for second place. </p>
<p>In the end, the winner was declared before the caucuses had even finished. Just as predicted, Trump won Iowa by an <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/elections/results/2024-01-15/primaries/republican/iowa?itm_source=oembed&itm_medium=news&itm_campaign=article&itm_content=presidential-primary-single">overwhelming margin</a>, with DeSantis and Haley neck and neck for second place.</p>
<h2>The extent of Trump’s power over the party</h2>
<p>While the result may have been a foregone conclusion, it is still significant. </p>
<p>The vote shows that the majority of Republican participants in Iowa were willing to publicly declare their support for a candidate who has incited an insurrection and been charged with 91 separate felonies, threatened violent retribution against his political opponents and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/06/donald-trump-sean-hannity-dictator-day-one-response-iowa-town-hall">promised</a> to act as a dictator on “day one” of a potential second term in office. His speeches are also <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/15/trump-poisoning-blood-immigration-polling/">steeped in overt racism</a> that once thrived only on the political fringes. </p>
<p>It is no longer possible to deny this political reality. This election is not like any other that has come before. It is not business as usual. </p>
<p>To an extent that is almost impossible to fathom, Trump continues to dominate the Republican Party. After the Iowa caucuses, it can no longer be said that he does so in spite of the multiple felony charges he faces, his disdain for democratic processes or his overt racism. Rather, it is <em>because</em> of all these factors that he has maintained the loyalty of a substantial, noisy and mobilised majority of the Republican base. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/beneath-the-trump-circus-american-democracy-faces-up-to-a-vital-challenge-203224">Beneath the Trump circus, American democracy faces up to a vital challenge</a>
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<p>Some commentators hold out the forlorn hope that a Trump revival can still be averted. On current polling and performance, however, it is clear none of the other primary challengers are in a reasonable position to defeat him in the race for the nomination. Their only hope is that Trump may be tripped up by one of the <a href="https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/">multiple legal processes</a> he is currently snared in. Though not impossible, nothing that has happened so far suggests this is likely. </p>
<p>But the size and extent of Trump’s victory in Iowa does not tell the whole story. Each of his challengers has defined their pitch for power largely in deference to Trump and have studiously avoided taking him on directly. </p>
<p>Haley, for instance, continues to pay obeisance to Trump’s accomplishments. Her recent <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/01/08/1223567778/nikki-haley-went-from-confederate-flag-removal-to-omitting-slavery-as-civil-war-">refusal to name slavery</a> as a fundamental cause of the US Civil War was not an act of historical ignorance. It was a signal sent to the Republican base that despite her previous positions on issues such as the <a href="https://time.com/6255503/nikki-haley-2024-confederate-flag/">Confederate flag</a>, she is now willing to perpetuate and pander to the same racialised worldview as Trump.</p>
<p>DeSantis has frequently sought to position himself as the most activist <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-wokeness-has-become-the-latest-battlefront-for-white-conservatives-in-america-207122">anti-“woke”</a> contender – a better Trump than Trump. Ramaswamy, meanwhile, has sought to present himself (with little success) as a sleeker, next-generation Trump. </p>
<h2>What does Iowa portend for democracy itself?</h2>
<p>The positioning around Iowa, and the result, consolidate dynamics that have been underway for some time. The Republican Party remains in the grip of Trump because he is the most effective avatar of a brand of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-wokeness-has-become-the-latest-battlefront-for-white-conservatives-in-america-207122">racial revanchism</a> with deep roots in the United States. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-wokeness-has-become-the-latest-battlefront-for-white-conservatives-in-america-207122">Why 'wokeness' has become the latest battlefront for white conservatives in America</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>By mobilising against what they perceive as threats to the established social order, Trump’s conservative base has been determined to use the institutions of the American state to consolidate its positions of power. It can then impose its worldview on the entirety of the country. The overturning of Roe v Wade by the conservative-dominated Supreme Court is a good example.</p>
<p>This is an explicitly racialised and anti-democratic movement that intends to impose the will of the minority over the lives of the majority. Every single Republican candidate who polled in Iowa is seeking to be the standard bearer of this movement. </p>
<p>The primary contest still has a long way to run. If there is any lesson from US political history, it is to expect the unexpected. </p>
<p>But this election is not business as usual. The current trajectory is clear, and it is dangerous: dangerous for American democracy, and as a result, dangerous for the world. </p>
<p>This storm is only just beginning.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221207/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Shortis is senior researcher in international and security affairs at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Liam Byrne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The result confirms the vast majority of Republican voters are still infatuated with the former president, despite his legal troubles and how little campaigning he’s done thus far.Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT UniversityLiam Byrne, Honorary Fellow, School of Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2203682024-01-05T13:45:57Z2024-01-05T13:45:57ZTrump’s Iowa political organizing this year is nothing like his scattershot 2016 campaign<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567701/original/file-20240103-21-taglo9.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=74%2C12%2C6094%2C5509&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump has mounted a major effort to teach people how to caucus for him.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Election2024Iowa/18e57d55a45d41509fcc1067eb1ca80f/photo?Query=Trump%20Iowa%20Caucus%202024&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=12&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Donald Trump is doing something new in Iowa.</p>
<p>The state is home to the first-in-the-nation GOP nomination event, the Iowa caucus, which takes place on Jan. 15, 2024, at 7 pm. Trump, the former president, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-leads-polls-as-iowa-caucuses-near/">holds a resounding lead</a> over his rivals. </p>
<p>What’s new for Trump in this campaign is actually old stuff – a throwback to traditional caucus campaigning. I’ve observed Iowa caucus campaigns over eight cycles, and my 2022 book, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/Inside-the-Bubble-Campaigns-Caucuses-and-the-Future-of-the-Presidential/Trish-Menner/p/book/9780367429782">Inside the Bubble</a>,” offers a close-up of the 2020 Democratic contest. Against that backdrop, it’s clear that the former president is taking cues from those who’ve come before him. </p>
<p>The widely accepted path to caucus success – first paved in 1976 by then-unknown Jimmy Carter on his way to the Democratic nomination and eventually the White House – is to “<a href="https://www.latimes.com/la-xpm-2011-dec-16-la-na-iowa-caucuses-gingrich-20111217-story.html">organize, organize, organize</a>,” as many campaign staff will tell you. Since then, it’s been the mantra for candidates of both parties – and this year, that includes Trump. </p>
<p>But such attention to organizing is a shift for the Trump campaign. Today, it looks <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/politics/donald-trumps-iowa-ground-game-seems-to-be-missing-a-coach.html">nothing like the scattershot</a> campaign from 2016, the only other time Trump has waged a nomination battle in the state. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A card with printing on it that asks people to sign up to work on the Trump campaign." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/567699/original/file-20240103-27-m6tpnh.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">‘Commit to caucus’ cards on a table before the start of a campaign event hosted by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Dec. 13, 2023, in Coralville, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/commit-to-caucus-cards-sit-on-a-table-before-the-start-of-a-news-photo/1853187847?adppopup=true">Scott Olson/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Car rides, phone calls</h2>
<p>A caucus in Iowa is a first step in a series of events that will ultimately select delegates to the national convention that formally nominates the presidential candidate. Unlike a primary, in which voters go to a polling place and cast a ballot, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Caucus">a caucus is a political party meeting</a> at which people discuss the candidates and then vote. </p>
<p>Caucuses are held in each of the approximately 1,700 precincts in Iowa. Registered party members can participate in the caucuses, and attendees will signal their support by writing a candidate’s name on a piece of paper. </p>
<p>Organizing isn’t unique to Iowa caucus politics, and it means different things depending on the context. In electoral politics across the U.S., <a href="https://hls.harvard.edu/bernard-koteen-office-of-public-interest-advising/a-quick-guide-to-working-on-political-campaigns/">campaigns organize by doling out responsibilities</a> to field staff positioned across a state or electoral district. These staff, then, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Get_out_the_vote">amass volunteers to get-out-the-vote</a>, either on election day or – in some states – in an early voting window before the election. </p>
<p>A typical organizing effort in caucus politics identifies early supporters of a candidate and asks them to be the foundation for a larger volunteer structure. These volunteers engage in outreach to other potential supporters – sometimes in-person, via door-to-door canvassing or on the phone, and increasingly by sending text messages. They’ll make sure that known supporters get assistance they might need to get to the caucus, such as a car ride.</p>
<p>The personal element of organizing is well-suited to caucus politics, which poses unique challenges to campaigns. Like primaries, caucuses are within political parties, so voters can’t rely on cues like party labels to pick a candidate. Instead, a friend or family member volunteering for a candidate just might be persuasive.</p>
<p>Caucus organizers can help voters navigate a byzantine process. </p>
<p>Unlike primaries, which involve a daylong window for voting, caucuses are scheduled for a specific day at sometimes obscure locations; this year’s Jan. 15 date coincides with Martin Luther King Day. Caucuses always start at 7 p.m., and they last as long as it takes to conclude business, which is likely an hour. This process can be intimidating, and effective organization can educate supporters and help ensure they show up. </p>
<h2>Campaign bling</h2>
<p>Trump’s nod to organizing is noteworthy and is at odds with his brand, which is more focused on stirring the pot and agitating, rather than painstakingly building an infrastructure. </p>
<p>Back in 2016, reluctant Trump volunteers, unfamiliar with caucus procedures, courted Iowa supporters. And while the headquarters of rival candidates were abuzz with activity, Trump’s was deserted. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/01/us/politics/trump-iowa-caucuses.html#:%7E:text=Then%20everybody%20votes.-,Mr.%20Trump%20blamed%20his%20second%2Dplace%20finish%20in%20Iowa%20in,Iowa%20operation%20at%20the%20time.">Trump came in second</a> in that year’s caucus. </p>
<p>Now, Trump’s <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-quietly-151635443.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall">2024 field army</a> of some 2,000 caucus captains, many of whom have already gone through formal training, are the front-line recruiters in the lead-up to this year’s caucus. They carry out tasks on behalf of the campaign at events themselves. Lest this all seem overly staid, there’s bling, too – <a href="https://x.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1739702608615333942?s=20">a limited edition white and gold variant</a> of the distinctive MAGA cap for the captains.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1739702608615333942"}"></div></p>
<p>Of Trump’s GOP rivals, it’s Vivek Ramaswamy, the young biotech entrepreneur new to politics, who’s working the hardest to meet Republican activists face to face. With a schedule packed with “town hall” appearances, as many as eight or nine daily, Ramaswamy is on the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/05/03/pizza-ranch-circuit-iowa-caucuses/26844813/">Pizza Ranch circuit</a>, taking advantage of the community rooms in the Iowa-based restaurant chain with a Christian conservative corporate vision.</p>
<h2>Caucus 101 lessons</h2>
<p>Trump’s caucus events are different. They’re large rallies with hundreds in attendance – and since mid-October, most of them are billed as “Commit to Caucus” events. The events have considerable time devoted to instructing the crowd about how to caucus, which is an unusual use of time at campaign events. It’s also a little perplexing, but potentially conveys some meaning.</p>
<p>The typical rally requires attendees to register and be in place well before the event begins, perhaps 1-2 hours early. Attendees are primed with a playlist and some B-list endorsers. They have included a losing congressional candidate, Trump’s former <a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/11/08/665832951/who-is-acting-attorney-general-matthew-whitaker">acting attorney general</a> after he fired Jeff Sessions, and the Iowa attorney general. </p>
<p>Despite Trump’s commanding lead in the polls, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-endorsed-iowa-evangelical-leader-bob-vander-plaats-rcna126189">local GOP stars</a> – like Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds and prominent Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats – are on Team (Ron) DeSantis.</p>
<p>But early in these Trump rallies, the program pivots to a Caucus 101-like presentation – how to find out where to caucus, what to do in advance and what to expect at the caucuses. </p>
<p>The other GOP candidates do this at their events to a much lesser extent, if at all. And in a heavily reported gaffe, Casey DeSantis, the spouse of the Florida governor, actually conveyed <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/09/casey-desantis-ron-desantis-iowa-election-fraud">incorrect instructions</a>, saying that non-Iowans can participate in the Iowa caucuses. </p>
<p>The how-to-caucus component of Trump campaign events could be nothing more than filler, something to occupy the attention of a confined crowd forced to be in place for hours. It might even be ill-advised, patently naïve because it’s instructing not only Trump supporters, but also Republicans in other candidates’ camps. <a href="https://iowademocrats.org/2020-caucus-training/">When Democratic candidates have offered such instruction</a> in the past, it’s been behind closed doors, reserved for known supporters and closer to caucus time.</p>
<p>It’s just possible that there’s more to this, some deeper meaning in the former president signing off on an effort to build an organization. Perhaps he recognizes that celebrity will only take him so far, and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/01/us/politics/trump-iowa-caucuses.html#:%7E:text=Then%20everybody%20votes.-,Mr.%20Trump%20blamed%20his%20second%2Dplace%20finish%20in%20Iowa%20in,Iowa%20operation%20at%20the%20time.">that attention to the traditional tools of politics</a> might be in his best interests.</p>
<p>In that spirit, last summer Trump’s campaign scored a big win in California, where it successfully pushed for <a href="https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2023/0801/Winner-takes-all-California-Republicans-modify-electoral-strategy">Trump-friendly processes</a> in that state’s winner-take-all presidential primary. Whether simply finding ways to modify rules to his advantage – or flat-out rigging the system – this new Trump approach is time-honored.</p>
<p>And it just might give Democrats even more cause for concern. A second term might be fueled with a little more political know-how to advance the Trump agenda.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220368/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara A. Trish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump’s Iowa caucus campaign is very nuts-and-bolts. That may be a recognition that celebrity will only take him so far and attention to traditional political tools might be in his interest.Barbara A. Trish, Professor of Political Science, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1832012022-07-05T12:15:38Z2022-07-05T12:15:38ZDemocrats aim to design a presidential nomination process that gives everyone a voice – and produces a winning candidate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471215/original/file-20220627-20-qgljn7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C24%2C5447%2C3596&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg prepare to caucus for him in a high school gym, Feb. 3, 2020, in Des Moines, Iowa. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/supporters-of-democratic-presidential-candidate-democratic-news-photo/1203889098?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the past few election cycles, the quartet of <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/06/democratic-primary-2024-dnc-early-states-00030560">Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina has had a lock</a> on the early spots in the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination process.</p>
<p>But that may be about to change.</p>
<p>Like clockwork every four years, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/michigan-might-have-edge-for-early-slot-on-democrats-2024-calendar-11655904600">Democrats hunker down to tweak their rules for presidential nomination</a>, and right now they’re finely tuning the 2024 calendar. The party has routinely pinned its hopes on nomination rules to pave the way for a November win.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.grinnell.edu/user/trish">As a longtime scholar of the presidential nomination process</a>, I have observed that the rules battles aim to find that sweet spot that is likely to churn out a nominee with broad appeal both within the party and outside of it. </p>
<p>The party needs to balance the legitimacy that comes with a process making it easy for average Democrats to insert their voices with the safety valve that lets savvy party insiders weigh in on the selection. All those pieces must produce a process long enough to ensure real competition, but not so long that internal party fences can’t be mended well in advance of the general election.</p>
<p>This time around, the Democratic National Committee is targeting that mix of states that will start the nomination process, hoping for something better than what’s been in place. It’s taken the unusual step of setting up a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/us/politics/democrats-presidential-primary-calendar.html">competition among state parties</a> to help it set the 2024 calendar. Sixteen states and Puerto Rico just made their pitches to the national party to be among the first to hold contests, with a decision expected later this summer.</p>
<p>It’s tempting to flag this all as a ploy to dislodge the Iowa caucuses from their leadoff role, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/01/13/iowa-caucus-everything-you-need-know-first-nation-voting-state/4423552002/">a position they’ve held since 1972</a>. In fact, Iowa’s claim on that privileged position is very much at risk, especially given its <a href="https://theconversation.com/iowa-caucuses-did-one-thing-right-require-paper-ballots-131181">2020 caucus counting fiasco</a>, which I detail in my book, “<a href="https://www.routledge.com/Inside-the-Bubble-Campaigns-Caucuses-and-the-Future-of-the-Presidential/Trish-Menner/p/book/9780367429782">Inside the Bubble</a>.”</p>
<p>Going early matters because it gives Democrats in those states a larger voice in the nomination. Candidates flock to the early states, <a href="https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/02/19/democrats-flood-tiny-new-hampshire-with-a-year-to-go/">interacting with voters</a> and sometimes <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-elections-nevada-idINKBN1XR0DY">tailoring their policy appeals</a> to the needs unique to a state. The first contests <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-presidential-nominating-process">don’t determine who will win</a>, but they typically knock some candidates out of the running. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="People on one side of a table, listening to a woman talking to them from the other side." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471224/original/file-20220627-26-zg7260.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Election workers at the Elks lodge, Ward 4, in Dover, N.H., on Feb. 11, 2020, when the New Hampshire primary was held.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/moderator-kate-hill-left-talks-with-election-workers-at-the-news-photo/1200330291?adppopup=true">Craig F. Walker/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Who gets to choose?</h2>
<p>The two major U.S. parties are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/27/why-are-there-only-two-parties-in-american-politics/">federal in nature</a>, their organizational structures reflecting the array of elective offices for which they compete, from county sheriff to the president. Even so, the national party is well positioned to call the shots at the state level, shored up by a now decadesold Supreme Court decision establishing the <a href="https://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-supreme-court/419/477.html">national party’s superiority over state parties</a>.</p>
<p>The national committee has kept control over the calendar for a long time, starting down that path when it <a href="https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93937947">overhauled nomination rules after the contentious 1968 Democratic national convention</a>. The package of reforms, implemented first in 1972, sought to take presidential nominations out of the proverbial back room and make them more open, more democratic.</p>
<p>Technically, at the primaries and caucuses, <a href="https://www.loc.gov/classroom-materials/elections/presidential-election-process/political-primaries-how-are-candidates-nominated/">voters select the delegates who support the presidential candidate they favor</a>. At the party convention, the candidate with the <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020">majority of delegates</a> wins the nomination.</p>
<p>Before the 1972 reforms, delegate selection wasn’t always tied to outcomes in primaries and caucuses. According to nomination expert <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/book/primary-politics-3/">Elaine Kamarck</a>, 25% of 1968’s presidential delegates were selected in 1967, well before what’s now considered the formal start of the nomination race.</p>
<h2>From caucuses to primaries</h2>
<p>Under the initial terms of the 1972 reforms, the national party didn’t limit how early in the election year a state could hold its nomination contest. That Iowa went first in 1972, though, was not so much a deliberate move for positioning as an unintentional byproduct of another national party rule.</p>
<p>The reformed system, in the interest of allowing time to publicize contests, required 30 days’ notice of delegate selection contests. That meant Iowa had to start early, since the state’s process involved a series of contests, not just the prominent precinct caucuses. But Iowa started even earlier than dictated by the new rules, essentially because of a fluke involving <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/why-iowa-gets-to-go-first-and-other-facts-about-tonights-caucus/2011/08/25/gIQAJtygYP_blog.html">high demand on hotel rooms</a>. </p>
<p>By 1980, Iowa had secured its role as <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/why-iowa-and-new-hampshire-go-first">the first caucus and New Hampshire was designated</a> as the first primary. For that election cycle, the Democratic National Committee imposed a rule condensing nomination contests into a 13-week window, beginning in early March. But then-President Jimmy Carter, seeking reelection and with sway over his party, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-a-brief-history-of-why-iowa-caucuses-are-first-election-2020-dnc-virtual-caucus/2163813001/">pushed for an exception for Iowa and New Hampshire</a>, states that had jump-started his 1976 campaign and might serve as a firewall. The national committee ultimately granted the exception. </p>
<p>Back in the 1970s, the Democratic National Committee had no beef with caucuses, and <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/01/31/what-to-know-about-the-iowa-caucuses/ft_20-01-28_iowaexplainer_3/">more states held caucuses than primaries</a>. They were seen as settings for deliberation and activist engagement.</p>
<p>But in 2022, caucuses are under fire for being <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/01/31/801251408/for-some-iowa-voters-caucuses-remain-a-barrier-to-participation">exclusionary</a>, and most states hold primaries. The switch from caucuses to primaries in the 1970s and 1980s was largely an unanticipated consequence of the initial reform, because complying with those new rules from 1972 was easier with primaries than caucuses. In 2020, the Democratic National Committee pushed states <a href="https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/URC_Report_FINAL.pdf">to expand the use of primaries</a>, asserting that they are more inclusive, transparent and accessible than caucuses.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Ten people on a brightly lit stage." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/471225/original/file-20220627-26-6plgjr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Caucuses and primaries aim to winnow down large fields of candidates. These 10 Democrats were only half of the field when this debate was held on June 26, 2019, in Miami.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidates-new-york-city-mayor-bill-news-photo/1158519177?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Losing sway</h2>
<p>The irony is that in moving to a primary, a party relinquishes power. </p>
<p>Caucuses are party-run and party-financed events, while primaries are state-run party elections. In <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Partisan_composition_of_state_legislatures">an era dominated by Republican-controlled state legislatures</a>, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/08/13/1026588142/map-see-which-states-have-restricted-voter-access-and-which-states-have-expanded">some of which have passed restrictive voting laws</a>, Democratic primary states put themselves at the mercy of the opposition party.</p>
<p>This summer’s actions by the Democratic National Committee could shake up the 2024 calendar. Iowa’s at risk of losing its privileged position, but so far the committee hasn’t guaranteed any state an exception to the 13-week window. The committee says that up to five states will be able to hold contests before the window begins. The other three traditional early-goers, I believe, are positioned a little better than Iowa to nab one of the early slots. </p>
<p>There’s no reason to think that White House pressure would prevail as it has in the past, but if so, the <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/05/joe-biden-iowa-caucus-gut-punch-110837">“gut punch”</a> Iowa delivered to then-candidate Biden in 2020 and his <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/01/joe-biden-south-carolina-118379">“resurrection”</a> in South Carolina would likely carry weight in the deliberations.</p>
<p>Iowa Democrats <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2022/06/03/iowa-caucuses-democrats-propose-major-changes-caucus-presidential-election/7484775001/">submitted their proposal</a> to the Democratic National Committee in early June 2022, describing a process that retains the caucus label yet complies with stated committee criteria of fairness, transparency and inclusivity. Notably, Iowa’s new plan provides for a period for participants to express presidential preferences before the actual caucuses, meaning there would be a way for voters to participate without attending the caucuses. This would make the process a little more inclusive. </p>
<p>A final decision on which states will be able to hold early contests is expected from the Democratic National Committee in early September. </p>
<p>Whatever the shape of the new calendar, it’s a safe bet that things won’t play out precisely as planned, given that unanticipated consequences have marked the party’s reform efforts in the past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183201/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara A. Trish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Iowa caucuses have traditionally heralded the start of the Democratic Party’s presidential nominating contest. But the party, eager to maintain the White House, is redesigning that process.Barbara A. Trish, Professor of Political Science, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1297392020-02-12T04:45:50Z2020-02-12T04:45:50ZCandidates say they want to build momentum with voters – but what is that actually worth?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/314596/original/file-20200210-109912-e7ax9v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Before the primary, Buttigieg said his campaign had the 'strongest momentum.'</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-Election-2020-Pete-Buttigieg/f297686fceb54c808a1042be54fa6100/67/0">AP Photo/Mary Altaffer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>“We are the campaign with the strongest momentum in the state of New Hampshire,” <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/buttigieg-on-defense-as-2020-rivals-aim-to-blunt-his-momentum">Pete Buttigieg told a crowd in Nashua</a> last week.</p>
<p>“I’ve got the ‘Big Mo,’” said George H. Bush <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2007/04/the-big-mo-it-can-change-with-time-003562">after winning the Iowa caucuses in 1980</a>. </p>
<p>Following this year’s New Hampshire primary, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/us/politics/nh-primary-election.html">won by Bernie Sanders</a>, observers of the 2020 Democratic primary will undoubtedly continue to hear claims from the candidates and the news media about “momentum” – the advantage a candidate gains after winning a primary election by a greater amount than predicted by polls taken before the election. </p>
<p>But what does it mean for a candidate to have momentum, and how will momentum affect the media’s coverage of the Democratic candidates in 2020?</p>
<p><a href="https://polisci.richmond.edu/faculty/dpalazzo/">We</a> <a href="https://polisci.richmond.edu/faculty/emcgowen/">view</a> momentum as more than a talking point or a prized gift for the winner of the Iowa caucuses or New Hampshire primary. </p>
<p>When a candidate exceeds expectations in a primary or caucus, the media responds with favorable coverage, which in turn influences polls, donations and volunteers. Interestingly, the momentum of the insurgent has a stronger effect on media coverage than that of the front-runner.</p>
<h2>Measuring momentum</h2>
<p>In 2014, building on the research of political scientist <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/dynamic-model-of-presidential-nomination-campaigns/1DFBF264003869EBA727399FFACA3E7D">John Aldrich</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/psq.12131">we devised</a> a way to measure momentum numerically.</p>
<p>We calculated pollsters’ expectations relative to total vote share, giving the candidate a bigger “bump” for exceeding expectations by a larger margin. The candidate who exceeds expectations the most relative to the size of their actual primary vote share receives the highest momentum scores.</p>
<p>These “momentum scores” are independent of electoral outcomes, like the accumulation of delegates from state elections.</p>
<p>We then used the scores to compare gains and losses in momentum with the media coverage after each primary election. To assess the amount and favorability of news coverage, we gathered data on the number of mentions and positive stories for each candidate in The New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post from Jan. 3 to March 12, 2012. </p>
<p><iframe id="9B3mh" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9B3mh/5/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Who gained and lost in 2012</h2>
<p>In examining the 2012 Republican primaries, we found that candidates with above-average momentum receive more positive media coverage.</p>
<p>However, the relationship between momentum and media coverage depends on whether a candidate is the front-runner or a challenger. The insurgent challenger got a stronger bump from momentum than the front-runner, who received more negative coverage even after securing wins in some primaries.</p>
<p>For example, Mitt Romney was the front-runner going into the Iowa caucuses and winner of 42 out of 54 primary states and 74% of all delegates. He had the highest momentum scores in the GOP field. </p>
<p>Romney’s closest challenger, Rick Santorum, actually led Romney in cumulative momentum between the Nevada and Washington primaries. After Super Tuesday, Romney built a lead in momentum that he would never relinquish.</p>
<p>As one might expect from his front-runner status, Romney received the most media mentions, an average of 11.3 mentions per primary day, almost five more than Santorum. A larger proportion of all stories about him were positive, again exceeding Santorum’s numbers.</p>
<p>But a more nuanced story emerges when we examine the relationship between momentum and media coverage. When both candidates experienced momentum, the challenger, Santorum, received more positive coverage than Romney. </p>
<p>When Romney had above-average momentum, 64.2% of news stories about him were positive. Meanwhile, Santorum received positive stories 78.5% of the time when he had above-average momentum. </p>
<p>Moreover, we saw even when Romney exceeded his average momentum, he was statistically more likely to receive negative coverage than his opponents. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312319/original/file-20200128-81336-1ufduki.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Mitt Romney speaks at a 2012 campaign event in Florida.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/GOP-Campaign/4cdd49f0d6ef44f088d7f3f1ce167396/36/0">AP Photo/Mary Altaffer</a></span>
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<h2>What this means for 2020</h2>
<p>Based on our analysis from 2012, the most recent single-party open primary, we believe a similar pattern may hold in 2020. </p>
<p>Joe Biden and Sanders <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">appear to be dual front-runners</a>, given Biden’s consistent lead in national polls and endorsements, and Sanders’ fundraising advantage and early successes.</p>
<p>The early results, with Sanders having strong showings in the first two primaries, suggest his situation may be similar to Romney’s, where the media may frame even victories as falling below expectations. </p>
<p>The effects of momentum on Pete Buttigieg will likely vary from week to week, depending on primary election results. He may be framed as a flash in the pan" when the electorate is unfavorable one week and “surging” the next.</p>
<p>Amy Klobuchar, on the other hand, stands to receive the most positive coverage relative to momentum. <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">As a top-tier candidate with the lowest expectations</a>, Klobuchar will likely enjoy the most favorable coverage overall. Even third place finishes going forward should be enough for her to garner positive coverage and mentions, whereas a similar result for any of the other candidates will stunt their momentum. </p>
<p>So, as this primary season begins, watch the relationships between expectations, votes and media coverage. Candidate momentum is something that can change from one primary election to the next. </p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129739/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Palazzolo previously received funding from the Dirksen Center and the American Political Science Association. Neither source funded any research that went into this article. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ernest B. McGowen III does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When candidates beat pollsters’ expectations, that can mean more positive media coverage.Daniel Palazzolo, Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondErnest B. McGowen III, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of RichmondLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311322020-02-05T04:01:05Z2020-02-05T04:01:05ZYes, the Iowa caucuses had major glitches, but the results may not even matter that much<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313623/original/file-20200205-20044-10r1r0c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Pete Buttigieg has emerged as a surprise frontrunner at the Iowa caucuses. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Gary He</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/pete-buttigieg-emerges-with-slim-lead-over-bernie-sanders-in-iowa-caucuses-20200205-p53xuv.html">apparent technical glitches</a> that held up results from the Iowa caucuses for hours unleashed a stream of conspiracy theories online.</p>
<p>Most common were allegations that the Democratic machine was quashing votes for Bernie Sanders. There is no evidence for this, but the comments recall the bitterness that accompanied the contest for the Democratic nomination in 2016. </p>
<p>It is absurd that what happens in Iowa is given such weight, but over half a century it has become the first stage of a complex set of votes to choose a presidential nominee. The first Democratic caucuses, in a state with a population equivalent to southeast Queensland, saw millions of dollars and thousands of volunteers thrown into campaigning for delegates to the Democratic convention, where Iowa will have one-tenth as many votes as California.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-presidential-primaries-are-arcane-complex-and-unrepresentative-so-why-do-americans-still-vote-this-way-129759">The US presidential primaries are arcane, complex and unrepresentative. So why do Americans still vote this way?</a>
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<p>But winning Iowa does boost campaigns and should kill off others. There are six potential contenders for the nomination, one of whom, Michael Bloomberg, wasn’t even on the Iowa ballots. Of these, former vice-president Joe Biden did worse than expected; Senator Amy Klobuchar managed to stay in the race.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/iowa-caucus-updates-02-04?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage">The vote showed</a> a clear split between “progressive” and “mainstream” Democrats, with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren – at the progressive end – together polling close to 50%. </p>
<p>Pete Buttigieg polled better than expected. So now the way the more mainstream Democratic vote, currently split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Biden, coalesces will determine which one of them seems viable. </p>
<p>A few months ago, Biden was seen as the frontrunner nationally. But as the one candidate who clearly underperformed, he is now heavily dependent on strong African-American support in South Carolina to remain competitive. If his support slips, this provides a real chance for Bloomberg, the former New York mayor, who is older, richer and more liberal than Donald Trump and is spending huge sums in preparation for <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-super-tuesday-5739">Super Tuesday</a> on March 3.</p>
<p>Iowa is too white and too rural to be representative of the national electorate, let alone those who might vote Democratic. Over the next few weeks, there will be Democratic primaries in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, which between them have a population under 10 million, far less than greater Los Angeles.</p>
<p>The real showdown comes on March 3, with primaries in 15 states, including California, Texas and Virginia. But, given the number of potential candidates, it is possible the race for delegates will continue right up to the convention in July in Milwaukee, presumably chosen because Wisconsin is a state the Democrats need to win in November.</p>
<p>In 1980, Teddy Kennedy campaigned against Jimmy Carter right up to the convention, just as Ronald Reagan had battled Gerald Ford four years earlier. In neither case did the incumbent go on to win the general election, which suggests the trap for the Democrats.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-four-days-remaining-sanders-leads-narrowly-in-iowa-but-biden-leads-nationally-130593">With four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally</a>
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<p>Given that all Democrat contenders agree the goal is to beat Trump, one might wish for some judicious ego-searching. The weakness of the American party system means there is no authority able to calculate who would be the strongest candidate in November, and pressure some of the current candidates to withdraw.</p>
<p>The longer the contest continues, the more ammunition this gives the Republicans, who will seize on every critical remark to use in the election. And the fervour of some supporters, most obvious in the Sanders camp, might mean some will refuse to vote in November if their candidate is not chosen.</p>
<p>In a race of four or five strong candidates, the top vote-getter among party loyalists is not necessarily the best candidate to win in November. In a country where it is difficult to get more than 60% of the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/11/politics/popular-vote-turnout-2016/index.html">eligible electorate to vote</a>, a successful candidate needs to inspire people who are largely disinterested and cynical about politics to turn out.</p>
<p>It is not clear that any of the current candidates can appeal both to young African Americans and Latinos as well as older white working-class men in the Midwest. All of the remaining viable candidates are white; three of them are in their late seventies. </p>
<p>Bitter disagreement over the policy proposals of the candidates ignores the reality that unless the Democrats control the Senate, a president is unlikely to pass much legislation. They need a candidate who can bring out voters in states like Arizona, Colorado and Maine, where Republican senators are most vulnerable.</p>
<p>This week, three of the top contenders will be back in the Senate, first to listen to Trump’s State of the Union address, then to vote on the losing side for his removal from office.</p>
<p>One hopes they may sit down with other Democrats to find a way of throwing their weight behind a potentially winning candidate and take control of a process that could leave the party bitter and divided before its delegates even decide on their candidate in July.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131132/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dennis Altman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While much of the focus is on the Iowa result, it is a small, largely white, state – the key results for the presidential nominee will come in on March 3.Dennis Altman, Professorial Fellow in Human Security, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1311812020-02-04T20:30:50Z2020-02-04T20:30:50ZIowa caucuses did one thing right: Require paper ballots<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313574/original/file-20200204-41541-qmeprk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C67%2C2977%2C1931&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Paper ballots – the key to reconstructing what happened in Iowa.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Iowa-Caucus/da34c8c6f6b74ccdbb770068479f93a4/8/0">AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-democratic-party-blames-app-coding-error-results-delay/4653639002/">confusion</a> that was the Iowa caucuses <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/us/politics/what-happened-iowa-caucuses.html">unfolds</a>, there will be a lot of questions about what happened and how to avoid it in the future.</p>
<p>But the results, ultimately, will be clear and undisputed because, amid everything they did wrong, the Iowa Democratic Party did one thing right: It required that votes be counted on paper, and then tallied electronically. To those of us who study cybersecurity carefully, that’s crucial.</p>
<p>With that paper trail, the Democrats – and the nation as a whole – will be able to regard this event as a case study in how to recover from a poorly run election. In this case, outside hackers do not appear to responsible – rather, the election was “hacked” by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/03/us/politics/ap-us-election-2020-delay.html">a bad software development and testing process</a>.</p>
<p>Eventually, the party will be able to reassemble the pieces of what happened at caucuses around the state and determine who won. Without the paper trail, there would never be any clarity – just a whole lot of doubt.</p>
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<h2>Electronics are vulnerable</h2>
<p>That may not be the case in the general election later this year. In November 2020, some <a href="https://www.verifiedvoting.org/verifier/#year/2020/">voters in at least nine states</a> including Texas, New Jersey and Indiana will cast their ballots electronically on systems that do not leave a paper trail of whom they voted for.</p>
<p>Even states that do keep paper trails often use vote-counting machines that are <a href="https://theconversation.com/aging-voting-machines-threaten-election-integrity-54523">more than a decade old</a>. In some cases, these are the computers that were introduced immediately after the Bush-Gore election in 2000, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/us/politics/16-years-after-bush-v-gore-still-wrestling-with-ballot-box-rules.html">to correct the problems with balloting</a> that had cast doubt on the actual choices of many Florida voters.</p>
<p>At least some of these systems are <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/08/2016-elections-russia-hack-how-to-hack-an-election-in-seven-minutes-214144">vulnerable to hacking</a>, according to <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/tech/hacking-a-voting-machine-is-getting-easier">Fox News</a>, sometimes by <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/aug/22/us-elections-hacking-voting-machines-def-con">kids as young as 11</a>. No one knows how secure the other machines are, because many vendors have <a href="https://www.ndi.org/files/2267_elections_manuals_monitoringtech-ch4.pdf">asserted their intellectual property rights</a> to prevent the security of their machines from being examined by independent parties.</p>
<p>If hacked, an electronic voting machine cannot be trusted to count votes accurately. In an election conducted with paper ballots, the ballots themselves can be examined and recounted, as is happening in Iowa right now.</p>
<p>With many electronic voting machines, however, there is no record of the votes cast, other than the digital information contained in the machine itself. The idea of recounting electronically cast votes is meaningless. Any problems with a paperless election would be impossible to fix, calling into public question the integrity of the whole process, and the validity of any results.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313587/original/file-20200204-41527-1vayaci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313587/original/file-20200204-41527-1vayaci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313587/original/file-20200204-41527-1vayaci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313587/original/file-20200204-41527-1vayaci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313587/original/file-20200204-41527-1vayaci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313587/original/file-20200204-41527-1vayaci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313587/original/file-20200204-41527-1vayaci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/313587/original/file-20200204-41527-1vayaci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Iowa’s Democratic Party caucuses used an app, but only to record and transmit data that was already written on paper.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Election-2020-Iowa-Caucus/4105c79751fa492fb758cc83ca3aee17/5/0">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Iowa story also speaks more broadly to the relationship between technology and elections. </p>
<p>First, it is not clear why the Iowa Democratic Party introduced an app at all. Accuracy is more important than speed in elections – it’s better to get the tally right in a day than to get messed-up vote counts in an hour – and more speed almost always means less accuracy.</p>
<p>Second, if technology must be used in elections, it needs to be introduced slowly. The idea of releasing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/03/us/politics/ap-us-election-2020-delay.html">a poorly tested app</a> to users <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/us/politics/what-happened-iowa-caucuses.html">without app-specific training</a> hours before it was to be used for real is the height of hubris – or naivete.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This article draws on parts of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/election-legitimacy-at-risk-even-without-a-november-cyberattack-64418">article</a> originally published Sept. 1, 2016.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131181/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The author's election-related work for the National Academies in the 2000s was paid for in part by funding from the National Science Foundation and the Election Assistance Commission. He is also a registered Republican, but even more embarrassed by that fact now than in 2016.
</span></em></p>With electronic voting and vote-counting machines susceptible to hacking, paper ballots ensure recounts are possible – and accurate.Herbert Lin, Senior Research Scholar for Cyber Policy and Security, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1306382020-01-31T13:01:04Z2020-01-31T13:01:04ZIowa caucuses: It’s not just candidates who face uncertainty – it’s their campaign workers, too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312873/original/file-20200130-41541-1ue4bnd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Seth Barnes, a staffer for Democratic presidential hopeful Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, makes calls to potential voters, Jan. 29, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-hopeful-minnesota-senator-amy-news-photo/1197491409?adppopup=true">KEREM YUCEL/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Soon, there might be a little clarity about the Democratic nomination race, maybe even for those workers in Iowa who staff the presidential campaigns.</p>
<p>2020 is a banner year for staff in Iowa, given a wide field of campaigns, each staffing up with tens, in some cases hundreds, of paid employees. I’ve interviewed a number of them <a href="https://www.grinnell.edu/user/trish">for a book I’m coauthoring</a> – “Inside the Caucus Bubble” – to be published by Routledge. </p>
<p>Counting staff is pretty tricky. They’re a moving target, even more so this cycle with candidates in and out at record pace. Complicating things further, many campaigns have deployed national staff to Iowa. An informed guess right now: There are perhaps 750 staff on the ground across all the Democratic campaigns; Bernie Sanders reportedly has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/many-iowa-democrats-are-paralyzed-by-fear-of-choosing-the-wrong-candidate-to-take-on-trump/2020/01/10/a83b78c6-2f26-11ea-9b60-817cc18cf173_story.html">more than 250 staff</a>, Joe Biden has more than 150 and Elizabeth Warren more than 100. </p>
<p>These workers, mostly young and educated, have become accustomed to uncertainty. Still, the question of just what will happen to them after the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/01/30/800588703/how-the-iowa-caucuses-work-and-why-theyre-important">Feb. 3 caucuses</a> wafts through the air, carrying with it a subtle message about the state of democratic politics.</p>
<h2>Lots of unknowns</h2>
<p>Iowa campaigns began staffing up in earnest early in 2019, building the framework for field organizations. Considered key to success in Iowa, field organizers – boots on the ground – fuel efforts to mobilize supporters to the caucuses.</p>
<p>When Jacob Hamblin, an Ohio native with several campaigns under his belt, considered working in Iowa, he grappled with the conventional questions, he told me. How long will a given candidate stay in? Who else will enter? From early on, it was clear that staff would be in a seller’s market, with many campaigns hiring and many positions to fill.</p>
<p>Jacob signed on with Cory Booker – a candidate he could “get excited behind” – as a regional organizing director, a management position in the field structure. </p>
<p>Still, Jacob mused about the unknowns – “Did I really want to move to a new state, not have any idea how long the job would last, what the work conditions would be?” </p>
<p>What sealed the deal: past connections and respect for colleagues already on board with Booker.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312874/original/file-20200130-41541-oqh9cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312874/original/file-20200130-41541-oqh9cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312874/original/file-20200130-41541-oqh9cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312874/original/file-20200130-41541-oqh9cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312874/original/file-20200130-41541-oqh9cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312874/original/file-20200130-41541-oqh9cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312874/original/file-20200130-41541-oqh9cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312874/original/file-20200130-41541-oqh9cs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang walks with his staff after speaking during a campaign event on Jan. 28, 2020 in Nevada, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidate-andrew-yang-walks-with-news-photo/1202572634?adppopup=true">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images</a></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Signed a lease</h2>
<p>Not all staffers come in with Jacob’s experience or network, but campaigns try to offer the support they can. Connecting incoming staff with “supporter housing” – that is, a spare bedroom or sofa in the home of a Democrat or a campaign supporter – is routine. Some organizers stay in this arrangement for the duration, others only a short time.</p>
<p>Marisa Bremer, right out of college, lived temporarily in supporter housing when she came to work for Kirsten Gillibrand as an organizer in Iowa City, which has a tight rental market.</p>
<p>On a Monday, Marisa signed a six-month lease, a rarity there, but good timing given that the caucuses were six months off. That Wednesday, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/us/politics/kirsten-gillibrand-2020-drop-out.html">Gillibrand dropped out</a>.</p>
<p>Marisa’s landlord – “the true definition of Iowa nice” – found someone to take the lease, and even returned the entire security deposit.</p>
<h2>‘Anger and heartbreak’</h2>
<p>With more than 20 presidential hopefuls in the field at one point, the withdrawal of candidates was a given. Some, however, orchestrated it better than others. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/01/us/politics/beto-orourke-drops-out.html">Beto O’Rourke dropped out with no advance notice</a> in front of stunned supporters and staff assembled for a high-profile, multi-candidate event. </p>
<p>Chris Hall serves in the Iowa General Assembly and was <a href="https://siouxcityjournal.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/sioux-city-legislator-chris-hall-joins-beto-o-rourke-presidential/article_9b49df3a-27a0-5e30-96cc-e95af5b0afe1.html">O’Rourke’s Iowa political director</a>. </p>
<p>“Our staff had spent multiple weeks … [trying] to make the event a success, ” Hall said. “It was sad for a lot of people.”</p>
<p>Katherine Shen experienced two candidate withdrawals. A transplant from New York, Katherine came in July to work for Gillibrand – upon arrival buying a car, a must for organizers. When Gillibrand dropped out two months later, she felt both “anger and heartbreak.”</p>
<p>In a seller’s market, offers from other campaigns come quickly. For Katherine, signing on with Kamala Harris made sense. It “checked off every box” – a qualified nominee with whom she would be “proud” to work, she said. And Katherine knew the Harris staff from her Gillibrand days.</p>
<p>On Dec. 3 when Harris withdrew, it was open season on her staff, angering former Iowa Democratic chair Sue Dvorsky, who tweeted later that day. “Stay the f*** away from the Harris field. Of course you want them to work for you. They’re … amazing, … sad, [a]nd grieving.” </p>
<p>Katherine opted not to sign on with another campaign.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312875/original/file-20200130-41503-g3pezg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312875/original/file-20200130-41503-g3pezg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312875/original/file-20200130-41503-g3pezg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312875/original/file-20200130-41503-g3pezg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312875/original/file-20200130-41503-g3pezg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312875/original/file-20200130-41503-g3pezg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312875/original/file-20200130-41503-g3pezg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312875/original/file-20200130-41503-g3pezg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., walks with staff members after holding a campaign stop at Mother Nature’s restaurant on Dec. 27, 2019 in Estherville, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidate-sen-amy-klobuchar-walks-news-photo/1196255391?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Union contracts new</h2>
<p>Staffers, with or without prior Iowa experience, grow to understand the lay of the land. They forge relationships with fellow staff, activists and political leaders. </p>
<p>In doing so, they build social capital, becoming part of a network with shared political ideals and experiences, even with nationwide reach.</p>
<p><a href="https://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/politics/50-most-wanted/kurt-meyer-election-2020-iowa-caucus-democrats-key-people-to-know.html">Kurt Meyer, an Iowan</a> with wide-ranging party and campaign credentials, is philosophical about what comes next. </p>
<p>“Most of the young men and women working campaigns are accustomed to uncertainty,” he said. It’s a reasonable trade-off “for being where the action is, for helping determine the course of our country.”</p>
<p>The consensus among staff is that work conditions were better this cycle. <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/disbursements/?amp%3Bdata_type=processed&%3Bcommittee_id=C00520379&%3Bmin_date=01012017&%3Bmax_date=08092018&%3Bdisbursement_description=legal+services&data_type=processed">Disbursement data</a> filed with the Federal Election Commission show salaries of field organizers hovering around US$3,000 per month, though there is variation across campaigns. </p>
<p>That income is not bad in Iowa, if sustained; not great if the campaign folds quickly. And not great compared to the widely reported Michael <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mike-bloombergs-money-buys-him-a-very-different-kind-of-campaign-and-its-a-big-one/2019/12/07/0593ec7c-184a-11ea-a659-7d69641c6ff7_story.html">Bloomberg field-staff compensation of $6,000 a month</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>I don’t know who needs to hear this but stay the f*** away from the Harris field. Of course you want them to work for you. They’re freaking amazing. And sad. And grieving. Sit all the way down. They know where you live. They’ll get back to. Or not.</p>— Sue Dvorsky (@sdvorsky1) <a href="https://twitter.com/sdvorsky1/status/1201957019734937600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 3, 2019</a></blockquote>
<p>And there’s something new in this election cycle. Most of the campaigns still in the mix <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/08/2020-campaigns-unionize-sanders-warren-booker-castro/596599/">have union contracts</a>, at least covering organizers, giving a little more certainty about basics like time-off, mileage reimbursement and benefits. </p>
<p>Jonathan Williams, a <a href="http://www.ufcw400.org/author/jwilliams/">spokesperson for UFCW Local 400</a>, a food and commercial workers union under which the Sanders campaign organized, paints a clear picture of where things will soon stand for staff: “[Y]ou are [either] out of a job … or you get relocated.” He adds that the Sanders contract has provisions covering both of these scenarios.</p>
<p>Assurances aside, even if benefits accrued are worth the trade-off, staff life remains fraught with uncertainty. Consider even a best-case scenario, namely working for the eventual nominee.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.p2016.org/clinton/clintongenia.html">Carlo Makarechi had been in Iowa since August 2015</a> with Hillary Clinton’s 2016 caucus campaign, and after that deployed to Nevada, then Washington. Carlo said that “a campaign [makes] real time decisions about how to deploy staff, based on constantly changing data.” But finding out about his general election post came after “months of uncertainty,” which he found “challenging.”</p>
<p>Of course, other industries have less-than-ideal conditions, and ultimately young, bright and educated campaign staff have options. But there’s a subtle yet distressing message for U.S. democracy when tolerating uncertainty is effectively part of a job description.</p>
<p>Whether because of money or family responsibilities, some just don’t have the luxury to enter this world of campaign staff, and that’s a loss for them personally. But it’s a loss for the system as well.</p>
<p>[ <em>Like what you’ve read? Want more?</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=likethis">Sign up for The Conversation’s daily newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130638/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Barbara A. Trish volunteers for the Poweshiek (IA) County Democratic Party. As a party volunteer, she provided supporter housing to Katherine Shen, who was on staff with Gillibrand and then Harris. Trish will not be caucusing on February 3. </span></em></p>What will happen to campaign workers after the Feb. 3 caucuses? It’s a question that’s in the cold Iowa air, carrying with it a subtle message about the state of democratic politics.Barbara A. Trish, Professor of Political Science, Grinnell CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1307422020-01-31T13:00:21Z2020-01-31T13:00:21ZAs Democratic primaries near, educators can teach hope to a polarized citizenry<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312895/original/file-20200130-41503-5dy1my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Volunteers in Iowa ahead of the Iowa caucus listening to a speaker on Jan. 25, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/keith-anthony-sikora-dressed-in-a-bernie-sanders-jumpsuit-news-photo/1196182716?adppopup=true"> Stephen Maturen/ AFP via Getty images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/1/28/21083472/2020-democratic-primary-polls-iowa-caucuses-winning">Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary approaching</a> many Americans are <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/01/27/iowa-caucuses-second-choices-really-matter-andrew-yang-joe-biden-donald-trump/4590288002/">making their choice</a>, although there are those who are still struggling with who to vote for. </p>
<p>Elections often inspire hope, but that hope can quickly turn to political despair when candidates fall short of voters’ expectations. </p>
<p>As a <a href="http://sarahstitzlein.wixsite.com/portfolio">philosopher</a> who specializes in citizenship education and political theory, I believe that political hope can be taught in schools and colleges. As I argue in my <a href="https://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/oso/9780190062651.001.0001/oso-9780190062651">new open-access book</a>, hope can lay a pathway to help citizens make good choices at the ballot box and sustain political engagement well after the polls close.</p>
<h2>Despair in democracy</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/article/danger-deconsolidation-democratic-disconnect">recent study</a> published in the Journal of Democracy found that across the globe citizens have “become more cynical” about the value of a democratic system and “less hopeful” of their ability to influence public policy. </p>
<p>In the United States, people are <a href="https://www.infoagepub.com/products/Democracys-Discontent-and-Civic-Learning">disenchanted with democracy</a> for many reasons. Some felt former President Barack Obama <a href="https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2017/jan/05/tracking-obamas-top-25-campaign-promises/">fell short</a> of meeting his bold promises, from offering more retirement account options for the poor to providing universal health care. Similarly, while Trump was <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40686613">regarded as a “savior” figure</a> in some communities, some of his supporters now find their <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/midway-through-first-term-trump-is-not-meeting-the-publics-modest-expectations-for-his-job-performance-poll-finds/2019/01/27/09d95210-20dc-11e9-9145-3f74070bbdb9_story.html?utm_term=.d9747d10a66a">expectations were not met</a>. </p>
<p>A much larger reason for being frustrated is that, as scholar <a href="http://polisci.berkeley.edu/people/person/wendy-brown">Wendy Brown</a> points out, economic ideologies have made many Americans <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/undoing-demos">less inclined to pursue</a> what is in the common good. A shift toward self-interest also moves people away from democratic behavior. It <a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/distrust-american-style-diversity-and-the-crisis-of-public-confidence/oclc/495254779?referer=di&ht=edition">contributes to distrust of fellow citizens</a>, and it could bring cynicism about the effectiveness of democratic government. </p>
<h2>Teaching political hope</h2>
<p>Rather than despair, my research shows that our presidential election season is an <a href="https://www.gutenberg.org/files/852/852-h/852-h.htm">opportunity for educators, parents and community leaders</a> to open up inquiry. Here are a few things they can do to develop more hopeful citizens. </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Help students explore real <a href="https://tischcollege.tufts.edu/research/republic-still-risk-and-civics-part-solution">social and political problems</a> to better understand citizens’ struggles and needs both in the past and today. Martin Luther King Day and Black History Month, for example, could be used as opportunities to showcase the hopeful endeavors of leaders and everyday citizens who fight for civil rights and against the political despair of the times. </p></li>
<li><p>Challenge growing citizens to see that genuine political hope is a call to ongoing collective work. Programs such as the <a href="https://freechild.org/">Freechild Institute</a> and the <a href="https://www.mikvachallenge.org/">Mikva Challenge</a> provide a model for how to mobilize students to act to improve their communities. In these programs, young people are encouraged to identify problems and are supported in expressing their views about them. Students can learn how to <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Hope-and-Healing-in-Urban-Education-How-Urban-Activists-and-Teachers-are/Ginwright/p/book/9781138797574">imagine better futures</a> and take steps toward it.</p></li>
<li><p>Reaffirm the value of shared political governance. An example of such mentoring comes from a <a href="http://inside.augsburg.edu/publicachievement/work-in-progress/">school in Minneapolis</a> where students became concerned that one school had a large playground while another one, next to it, had very little playground facilities. Instead of harboring hostile feelings, students took positive actions. They surveyed students of both schools and gathered evidence on the impact of the inequality. They also worked with the school administrations and the local press to voice their concerns. In the end, students put forward a proposal that was fairer toward everyone. In the process, students learned how to <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/pragmatism-and-social-hope/9780231144582">listen, collaborate</a> and build trust – something all citizens should learn.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Expressing dissent</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255904/original/file-20190128-39344-1bdk2dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/255904/original/file-20190128-39344-1bdk2dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255904/original/file-20190128-39344-1bdk2dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255904/original/file-20190128-39344-1bdk2dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255904/original/file-20190128-39344-1bdk2dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255904/original/file-20190128-39344-1bdk2dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/255904/original/file-20190128-39344-1bdk2dt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Teachers can teach students how to not only express dissatisfaction, but help others understand it as well.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/tallahassee-florida-united-states-february-21-1030477669?src=_TN_l-dLSzzYjh9DY0PmxA-1-0">KMH Photovideo/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
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<p>Teachers can also help their students understand <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Teaching-for-Dissent-Citizenship-Education-and-Political-Activism/Stitzlein/p/book/9781612052298">the relationship between hope and dissent</a>. When citizens focus on the improved future they hope for, they may become frustrated with how things are now. </p>
<p>For example, after a gunman killed 17 students at a high school in Parkland, Florida, students from that school and across the U.S. staged widespread protests <a href="https://theconversation.com/teaching-students-how-to-dissent-is-part-of-democracy-93046">demanding safer schools</a>. </p>
<p>Some educators helped students learn how to not only express dissatisfaction, but help others understand it. Some teachers, for example, helped students describe the problems and experience of gun violence by creating <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/14/593433911/across-the-country-students-walk-out-to-protest-gun-violence">press packets</a>. Parents aided children in constructing messages to share with <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article204511654.html">legislators</a>.</p>
<p>Students learned how to put forward solutions to be discussed and tested. Members of the school newspaper were guest editors of a U.S. edition of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2018/mar/23/parkland-students-manifesto-americas-gun-laws">The Guardian</a> a British newspaper, which outlined their vision for change. </p>
<h2>Questioning power structures</h2>
<p>Educators can cultivate critical thinking. This is not just the deep thinking that most of us expect in all classes. It is thinking that <a href="https://democracyeducationjournal.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1302&context=home">interrogates power structures</a>, identifies injustice and asserts principles of democracy. </p>
<p>Following the shooting of 18-year-old Michael Brown Jr. in Ferguson, some educators, for example, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2014/08/how-to-teach-kids-about-whats-happening-in-ferguson/379049/">helped students understand</a> the history of racism in order to better critique policing injustice today and describe an America where <a href="https://www.rethinkingschools.org/books/title/teaching-for-black-lives">black lives matter</a>.
When students learn this history, their critiques of the present and their vision for the future are better informed. </p>
<h2>Tell a story</h2>
<p>Finally, educators can nurture imagination and support students in constructing stories about improved ways of living. Stories show examples of how to take action and why it’s worthwhile to do so. </p>
<p>Storytelling also includes listening to the needs of others. Learning how to pay attention to the lives of others can improve citizens’ visions for the future. </p>
<p>As Americans head to the polls, universities and schools can help voters and youth shape and respond to the election. They can help budding citizens identify candidates who listen to the needs of voters and craft stories of a desirable future. These are stories that don’t depend on the candidate as the hero, but rather are inclusive and inspiring calls to collective work to improve our society. </p>
<p>Such efforts can sustain the hope of voters, transition those emotions into collective action and revive democracy well beyond 2020.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of a piece <a href="https://theconversation.com/teaching-hope-during-the-2020-campaign-season-110067">first published</a> on Jan. 30, 2019.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>Deep knowledge, daily.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=deepknowledge">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130742/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Stitzlein has received funding from the Spencer Foundation, Templeton Foundation, Society for the Advancement of American Philosophy, and Center for Ethics & Education.</span></em></p>Schools and colleges can teach political hope that can help citizens make better choices.Sarah Stitzlein, Professor of Education and Affiliate Faculty in Philosophy, University of Cincinnati Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1305932020-01-31T02:26:31Z2020-01-31T02:26:31ZWith four days remaining, Sanders leads narrowly in Iowa, but Biden leads nationally<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/313000/original/file-20200131-41516-10gvlp4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While Bernie Sanders is polling strongest in Iowa, Joe Biden remains the national frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/EPA/Peter Foley</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Four days before the US Iowa Democratic caucuses next Tuesday AEDT, the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html">RealClearPolitics</a> poll average has Bernie Sanders narrowly leading with 23.8%, followed by Joe Biden on 20.2%, Pete Buttigieg 15.8%, Elizabeth Warren 14.6% and Amy Klobuchar 9.6%. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html">Nationally</a>, it’s 28.8% Biden, 22.5% Sanders, 14.1% Warren, 8.5% Michael Bloomberg and 6.0% Buttigieg. In the past two weeks, Biden and particularly Sanders have gained, mostly at the expense of Warren and Buttigieg.</p>
<p>Iowa is important because it helps to winnow the field of candidates, and candidates who exceed expectations often get a surge in their national voting intentions. </p>
<p>However, the almost <a href="https://theconversation.com/warren-placed-second-after-biden-as-trumps-ratings-rise-but-could-the-impeachment-scandal-make-a-difference-123989">all-white Iowa</a> does not represent the overall Democratic primary electorate. Biden has polled strongly with black voters, but not so well with whites.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-approval-ratings-crash-over-bushfires-in-first-2020-newspoll-sanders-has-narrow-iowa-lead-129774">Morrison’s approval ratings crash over bushfires in first 2020 Newspoll; Sanders has narrow Iowa lead</a>
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<p>If, as some polls suggest, Biden nevertheless won Iowa, he would likely be the Democratic nominee to face Donald Trump in November. If he fails to win Iowa, Biden is still well-placed when the contest turns to more diverse states.</p>
<p>CNN <a href="https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1222537294793658370">analyst Harry Enten</a> says that, despite Sanders’ current Iowa poll lead, he’s still only a two in five chance to win. Historically, polls have not been good at caucuses, and there can be late swings in Iowa. Analyst <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-iowa-caucuses-are-in-4-days-almost-anything-could-still-happen/">Nate Silver</a> says polls at this stage in eight of the last 11 contested Iowa caucuses for either party have been inaccurate.</p>
<h2>What happens at the caucuses</h2>
<p>This <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-26/how-the-iowa-caucuses-work-and-what-s-new-for-2020-quicktake">Bloomberg News</a> article explains the Iowa caucuses. They will begin Monday at 7pm local time (12pm Tuesday AEDT). Initially, caucus attendees divide into groups corresponding to the candidate they support.</p>
<p>If candidates win fewer than 15% at a particular caucus site, their supporters will be asked to realign. A candidate originally declared “unviable” can become viable on the second round if they then clear the 15% threshold. Candidates who were declared viable in the first round cannot lose support, but can gain from supporters of unviable candidates.</p>
<p>As I <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-approval-ratings-crash-over-bushfires-in-first-2020-newspoll-sanders-has-narrow-iowa-lead-129774">wrote previously</a>, a caucus is distinct from a primary, which is conducted by the state’s electoral authority. A major difference from standard electoral practise is that a caucus is not a secret ballot. Caucuses have far lower turnout than primaries, resulting in a greater weight for party activists.</p>
<p>This year, the Iowa Democrats will report three results from their caucuses: the raw vote totals before realignment, the totals after realignment, and the number of state delegate equivalents, which excludes unviable candidates. Previously, only the state delegates have been reported. It is possible there will be disagreement between these measures, particularly with a close vote.</p>
<h2>What happens after Iowa?</h2>
<p>There are three more Democratic presidential contests in February: the New Hampshire primary (February 11), the Nevada caucus (February 22) and the South Carolina primary (February 29). After Nevada, there is only one state (Wyoming) that uses the caucus format to decide its delegates.</p>
<p>Sanders has surged in <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html">New Hampshire</a>, and leads with 26.3%, followed by Biden at 16.8%, Buttigieg 14.8% and Warren 13.5%. </p>
<p>The two January <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html">Nevada</a> polls gave Biden a one to six point lead over Sanders. There has been only one January poll of <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-6824.html">South Carolina</a> that gave Biden a 21-point lead over his nearest challenger.</p>
<p>The four <a href="http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/ccad.phtml">early states account</a> for just 4% of pledged delegates, and are important mainly to establish front runners and winnow the field.</p>
<p>On “Super Tuesday” March 3, 14 states vote, including delegate-heavy Texas and California. Over 1,500 pledged delegates, or 34% of all pledged delegates, will be decided on Super Tuesday. This day could be decisive.</p>
<p>Delegates are proportionally allocated, but candidates must meet a 15% threshold to win any delegates, both within a state and Congressional District (CD). Delegates are allocated to states and CDs based on population and how Democratic-leaning they are.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/us-democratic-presidential-primaries-biden-leading-followed-by-sanders-warren-harris-and-will-trump-be-beaten-120340">US Democratic presidential primaries: Biden leading, followed by Sanders, Warren, Harris; and will Trump be beaten?</a>
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<p>If Sanders has large wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, he is likely to surge in the national polls. The nightmare scenario for moderate Democrats is that Warren supporters shift to Sanders, while the moderate vote is split between Biden and candidates who are unlikely to reach the 15% threshold, such as Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar.</p>
<p>Biden is disadvantaged by the early calendar, as Iowa and New Hampshire are almost all-white, with Sanders likely benefiting from being senator for the neighbouring Vermont in New Hampshire.</p>
<h2>Trump’s ratings and general election polls</h2>
<p>With all polls, the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/">FiveThirtyEight</a> aggregate has Trump’s ratings at 42.8% approve, 52.8% disapprove, for a net approval of -10.0%. With polls of likely or registered voters, Trump’s ratings are 44.3% approve, 52.0% disapprove (net -7.7%). </p>
<p>Since my <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrisons-approval-ratings-crash-over-bushfires-in-first-2020-newspoll-sanders-has-narrow-iowa-lead-129774">mid-January article</a>, Trump’s net ratings have improved about two points despite the impeachment hearings. The strong US economy is far more important to non-college educated voters.</p>
<p>In national general election polls, Biden leads Trump by 4.3% in the <a href="https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/National.html">RealClearPolitics</a> average, Sanders leads by 3.0%, Warren leads by 1.2%, Bloomberg leads by 3.2%, but Buttigieg trails Trump by 0.2%. These margins are little changed from December.</p>
<h2>US economy had 2.1% annualised growth in December quarter</h2>
<p>In the December 2019 quarter, the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/us-gdp-q4-2019-first-reading.html">US economy</a> grew at a 2.1% annualised pace, unchanged from the growth in the September quarter. The US reports its quarterly growth rate as if it applied to the whole year. Dividing by four gives what is commonly used in Australia – a little over a 0.5% growth.</p>
<p>For the full year 2019, the economy grew 2.3%, below the 2.9% growth in 2018, and below the Trump administration’s forecasts of at least 3% growth after the passage of the 2017 tax cuts.</p>
<h2>Brexit, UK Labour leadership and Irish election</h2>
<p>I wrote for <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/01/29/us-iowa-democratic-caucus-minus-one-week/">The Poll Bludger</a> Wednesday that Brexit isn’t over on January 31; the UK government has until December 31 to negotiate a trade deal with the European Union and pass it through parliament. Also covered: the UK Labour leadership contest and the February 8 Irish election.</p>
<p>On my <a href="http://adrianbeaumont.net/left-wins-spanish-confidence-vote-and-croatian-presidency-austria-forms-conservative-green-government/">personal website</a> on January 8, I covered the left winning a crucial confidence vote by two votes in Spain and the formation of a conservative/green coalition government in Austria.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130593/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Polls are showing Bernie Sanders leading in next week’s important Iowa caucuses- but polls have been notoriously bad at predicting caucuses’ outcomes.Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1297592020-01-28T19:01:36Z2020-01-28T19:01:36ZThe US presidential primaries are arcane, complex and unrepresentative. So why do Americans still vote this way?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312193/original/file-20200128-81416-u5llw0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=726%2C0%2C3944%2C3121&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Like the other Democratic candidates for president, Elizabeth Warren has spent months canvassing Iowa to meet voters while spending little time in other states.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">CJ Gunther/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>While political parties in both <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/how-does-the-labor-leadership-ballot-work">Australia</a> and <a href="https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-contests">Britain</a> have recently <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10361146.2012.731490">moved towards</a> leadership contests that give more say to ordinary party members, nothing matches the democratic scale of the American process to nominate presidential candidates. </p>
<p>The Democratic nomination contest, which begins on Monday with the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-26/how-the-iowa-caucuses-work-and-what-s-new-for-2020-quicktake">Iowa caucuses</a> and then continues with the <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/480147-sanders-surges-to-first-in-new-hampshire-poll">New Hampshire primary</a> on February 11, looks and feels a lot like the presidential election that will be held in November. </p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/">57.6 million voters</a> participated in the primaries or caucuses to choose the Republican and Democratic candidates, which was just shy of the record turnout in the 2008 contests.</p>
<p>The amount of money now invested in these nominating contests is <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/01/17/797048821/new-figures-show-billionaire-candidates-spending-big-with-little-return">staggering</a>, as is the attention focused on them by the media.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-the-democrats-bitter-race-to-find-a-candidate-to-beat-trump-might-elizabeth-warren-hold-the-key-122461">In the Democrats' bitter race to find a candidate to beat Trump, might Elizabeth Warren hold the key?</a>
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<h2>When did primary voting begin?</h2>
<p>Americans have not always chosen presidential candidates this way. Throughout the early days of US politics, state party leaders chose candidates at the national conventions in a deal-making process mostly hidden from ordinary citizens.</p>
<p>A few states adopted primaries early in the 20th century as part of the <a href="https://conventions.cps.neu.edu/history/the-progressive-era-reforms-and-the-birth-of-the-primaries-1890-1960/">progressive revolt</a> against elite control of all institutions. Party leaders still made the final choice, but primaries served as a useful “<a href="https://carsey.unh.edu/publication/first-primary-why-nh">beauty contest</a>” to test a candidate’s viability in the presidential election. </p>
<p>The turning point came with the <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">Democratic National Convention of 1968</a>, a violent affair at the height of the Vietnam War. The vast majority (80%) of the votes in the 13 state primaries that year had gone to anti-war candidates, but party leaders swung the convention to the pro-war vice president, Hubert Humphrey, who hadn’t contested the primaries and went on to lose the election to Richard Nixon.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/two-dozen-candidates-one-big-target-in-a-crowded-democratic-field-who-can-beat-trump-119295">Two dozen candidates, one big target: in a crowded Democratic field, who can beat Trump?</a>
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<p>This bitter and divisive event led to <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/reformingthepresidentialnominationprocess_chapter.pdf">reforms</a> in the Democratic Party that made primaries the main means of selecting candidates. Republicans quickly followed suit, and by 1976, primaries and caucuses decided the nominees for both major parties.</p>
<p>In another quirk of the process, candidates are <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-gets-to-be-a-delegate-at-the-presidential-nominating-conventions/">awarded a certain number of delegates</a> depending on how they fare in these nominating contests. The final vote for the nominee takes place among these delegates at the national party conventions in July and August. </p>
<p>Technically, the delegates decide, but they nearly always affirm the results already decided in the primaries. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312207/original/file-20200128-81346-1oo6z1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312207/original/file-20200128-81346-1oo6z1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312207/original/file-20200128-81346-1oo6z1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312207/original/file-20200128-81346-1oo6z1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312207/original/file-20200128-81346-1oo6z1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312207/original/file-20200128-81346-1oo6z1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312207/original/file-20200128-81346-1oo6z1f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Because of the US voting system, presidential candidates like Pete Buttigieg focus an inordinate amount of attention on states like Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gary He/EPA</span></span>
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<h2>Declining influence of the parties</h2>
<p>Despite this democratic reform, the party elites didn’t entirely lose power. </p>
<p>An <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo5921600.html">landmark study published in 2008</a> examined the importance of the “invisible primary” before voting even begins. In this process, party leaders effectively vet candidates and choose a front-runner to support during the actual primaries and caucuses. </p>
<p>When party leaders coordinate with each other, the authors found, they nearly always get their preferred candidate. </p>
<p>This model has been highly influential, but has required serious <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/01/opinion/campaign-stops/why-cant-the-gop-stop-trump.html?_r=0">re-evaluation</a> since the 2016 election when Donald Trump won the Republican nomination despite fierce opposition from party elites. </p>
<p>Trump’s nomination showed the weakness of the party “establishment” compared to the sheer force of celebrity. His ability to <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2016/03/15/media/trump-free-media-coverage/">command media attention</a> far outweighed endorsements from party leaders during the nominating process.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312206/original/file-20200128-81411-1u3apbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312206/original/file-20200128-81411-1u3apbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312206/original/file-20200128-81411-1u3apbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312206/original/file-20200128-81411-1u3apbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312206/original/file-20200128-81411-1u3apbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312206/original/file-20200128-81411-1u3apbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312206/original/file-20200128-81411-1u3apbm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Joe Biden has spent considerable time in New Hampshire ahead of the first primary on Feb. 11.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CJ Gunther/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The power of Iowa and New Hampshire</h2>
<p>As in presidential elections, the outcome of the nominating contests is determined <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/02/confused-by-all-this-talk-about-delegates-read-this.html">state by state</a>, not by a single popular vote. And as in presidential elections, not all states are created equal. </p>
<p>States vote at various times between February and June, and a huge amount of attention is given to the states voting first. </p>
<p>Iowa comes first with its caucuses (small gatherings of voters that discuss candidates and choose delegates), followed soon after by New Hampshire with its primary (a straightforward ballot election). South Carolina and Nevada round out the voting in February before the Super Tuesday contests on March 3, when more than a dozen states vote. </p>
<p>With a large field of candidates, Iowa and New Hampshire play a <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-do-iowa-and-new-hampshire-really-matter-for-2020/">crucial role</a> in giving some candidates momentum, while denying others a pathway to the nomination. It’s not unusual to see candidates drop out after these contests, despite the fact there are still 48 states left to vote.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-secret-origins-of-presidential-polling-129526">The secret origins of presidential polling</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To make matters more complicated, every state and territory has <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/primary-types.aspx">its own rules</a> on how primaries and caucuses are conducted. </p>
<p>Iowa earned its first-place status because its unique process <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-a-brief-history-of-why-iowa-caucuses-are-first-election-2020-dnc-virtual-caucus/2163813001/">takes so long</a>. Iowans will meet at more than 1,600 caucus sites on Monday to choose delegates to go to county conventions. Those representatives will then select delegates for the state convention, where it will be decided how Iowa’s delegates to the national convention will be divided up. </p>
<p>This system was devised to give more power to grassroots activists. It often results in chaos. In 2016, there were ties at some caucuses with results decided by <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/02/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-coin-flips-iowa-caucus/459429/">games of chance</a>, and the Iowa Democratic Party <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/05/iowa-democratic-party-altered-precinct-caucus-results-clinton-sanders">unilaterally changed</a> one result. </p>
<p>The Democratic National Committee has since imposed <a href="https://www.iowapublicradio.org/post/seasoned-caucusgoer-first-timer-what-you-need-know-caucus-night">new rules</a> to make the process clearer and more transparent. </p>
<h2>The problem of race</h2>
<p>Another problem is that Iowa and New Hampshire are both whiter and more rural than the rest of the country. Both states are particularly unrepresentative of the Democratic Party electorate, which is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/12/19/would-booker-castro-be-tonights-debate-if-polls-counted-people-color-accurately/">more than 40%</a> non-white. </p>
<p>Though Iowans are proud of <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2008/05/iowa-was-obamas-jump-start-010403">giving Barack Obama a crucial, early win in 2008</a>, no African-American or Latino candidates gained enough traction in these early states this time around to even make it to the voting.</p>
<p>Julián Castro, one of those minority candidates who has already dropped out, <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2019/11/14/castro-iowa-new-hampshire-primary-071055">said last year</a> that Democrats can’t </p>
<blockquote>
<p>complain about Republicans suppressing the votes of people of color, and then begin our nominating contest in two states that hardly have people of color. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Castro is <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/01/iowa-and-new-hampshire-wont-always-vote-first/605353/">not alone</a> with this complaint, though others have <a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/12/2020-democratic-primary-all-white-debate-booker-castro.html">argued</a> that white and non-white Democratic voters have similar preferences this time around. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312204/original/file-20200128-81403-ceq5ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/312204/original/file-20200128-81403-ceq5ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312204/original/file-20200128-81403-ceq5ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312204/original/file-20200128-81403-ceq5ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312204/original/file-20200128-81403-ceq5ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312204/original/file-20200128-81403-ceq5ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/312204/original/file-20200128-81403-ceq5ia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cory Booker was one of several minority candidates who dropped out of the presidential race before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">CJ Gunther/EPA</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There have <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-a-brief-history-of-why-iowa-caucuses-are-first-election-2020-dnc-virtual-caucus/2163813001/">been</a> <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/iowa-and-new-hampshire-vote-first-why-it-matters-presidential-primary-elections">attempts</a> since the 1970s to reduce the importance of these two states in the nominating process, but they have fiercely resisted change. </p>
<p>New Hampshire has enshrined in law that it must hold its primary before any other state. And even without Republican challenger to Trump this year, the Iowa Republican Party is still holding its laborious caucuses. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://qctimes.com/news/local/we-cannot-go-one-year-without-iowa-first-in-the/article_4bc56b76-f875-5df7-aee8-1ad635cc74a2.html">words of the state’s Republican chairman</a>, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>we cannot go one year without Iowa first-in-the-nation or we are done.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Little momentum for change</h2>
<p>The nominating system, then, is a huge and unwieldy monster. Other than the reforms of the 1970s, there has been little conscious design of nominating institutions. </p>
<p>Instead, haphazard bargains have hardened into historical legacies. The
constitution also has nothing to say about political parties and provides no guidance on how nominations could or should be done. </p>
<p>There may be widespread dissatisfaction with the length and expense of primary campaigns, the outsized influence of early states and the ugly conflicts primaries cause before the real election even begins. </p>
<p>But major reforms are unlikely in the near future. As a result, those who want to succeed must master an arcane system, not try to change it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129759/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Americans didn’t always have primaries and caucuses to choose presidential candidates. The system was meant to be more democratic, but it places too much attention on largely white, small states.David Smith, Senior Lecturer in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1271732019-12-27T14:17:39Z2019-12-27T14:17:39ZWhy the race for the presidency begins with the Iowa caucus<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308116/original/file-20191220-11900-rtji52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">On Jan. 3, 2012, voters sign in on caucus night at Point of Grace Church in Waukee, Iowa. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Campaign-2016-What-s-a-Caucus/1d45c1b8efb944f2a0f38e3b4f615a56/9/0">AP/Evan Vucci</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The first and most visible test of candidate support in the 2020 presidential election is the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/11/16/iowa-caucuses-just-one-testing-ground-candidates/2575267001/">Iowa presidential caucus</a>, which takes place on Feb. 3.</p>
<p>While Iowa does not control who becomes the candidate of each party, Iowans’ choices almost always end up <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/columnists/2019/11/16/iowa-caucuses-just-one-testing-ground-candidates/2575267001/">matching the rest of the nation</a>.</p>
<p>One of the architects of the modern Iowa caucuses, which began in 1972, wrote that the significance of the caucus was unanticipated. </p>
<p>“Never in our dreams did we realize we would be ‘first in the nation,’ nor did we ever expect anyone outside Iowa would pay much attention,” retired Iowa State University engineering <a href="https://learn.canvas.net/courses/690/pages/full-reading-week-1-section-2">professor Richard Seagrave wrote</a>. </p>
<p>Seagrave said that it wasn’t political calculation that led to the choice to run the caucus early in the election year. It was the “immense amount of paperwork” needed to document caucus proceedings with only a slow mimeograph machine that led to the choice of such an early caucus date.</p>
<p>“Remember that we had no ‘user-friendly’ computers or high-speed copy machines in 1972,” wrote Seagrave.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/W/bo10415852.html">significance of first-in-the-nation</a> placement did not become clear until a barely known governor of Georgia, <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/426729/">Jimmy Carter, came to Iowa in 1976</a> to test the waters for a presidential run. </p>
<p>That year <a href="https://learn.canvas.net/courses/690/pages/full-reading-week-1-section-3">“Uncommitted” got 14,508 votes (37%). Carter came in with 10,764 votes (27%)</a>, but was declared the winner. He went on to get the nomination and win the presidency. The fact that a relative unknown – spending little money but lots of time and face-to-face campaigning – could win was surprising.</p>
<h2>Why a caucus?</h2>
<p>Before the modern system for choosing presidential candidates was invented, the mechanism since 1832 for nomination of presidential candidates has been a <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jah/article-abstract/61/4/1097/705185?redirectedFrom=fulltext">national political convention of each party</a>. Voters in each state convention elect delegates to the national convention. A caucus is one way state party leaders pick whom to send, and whom those delegates should support.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=498&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308117/original/file-20191220-11904-xizvlp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=626&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chicago political boss Mayor Richard Daley at the 1968 Democratic convention. Daley’s response to violence at the convention led to major political reforms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/AP-Was-There-Chicago-Riots/1fbc4ed9150a48c982c2808f2f9faf9a/1/0">AP/Jack Thornell, File</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Powerful political bosses, such as <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Huey-Long-American-politician">Huey Long from Louisiana</a>, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boss-Tweed">William “Boss” Tweed</a> of New York, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/James-Michael-Curley">James Michael Curley</a> of Boston and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-J-Pendergast">Tom Pendergast from Kansas City</a>, had the real power in the 19th and early 20th centuries through their political organizations. <a href="https://www.encyclopedia.com/history/dictionaries-thesauruses-pictures-and-press-releases/bosses-and-bossism-political">Bosses offered services</a> – housing, medical care, food, clothing – to people before government services became common. </p>
<p>Pendergast once told The <a href="http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/bosses.htm">New York Times</a>, “When a poor man comes to old Tom’s boys for help we don’t make one of those damn fool investigations like these city charities. No, by God, we fill his belly and warm his back and vote him our way.”</p>
<p>A vestige of that political era lasted into the second half of the 20th century, when the actions of Chicago’s longtime political boss, Democratic Mayor Richard Daley, led to a profound change in the presidential candidate selection process.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">The 1968 Democratic convention</a> took place in Chicago, a city tightly controlled by Daley. His operatives had long seen to it that people voted for Daley and his chosen candidates.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.history.com/news/1968-political-violence">1968 was a year of violence related to race and the Vietnam War</a>. Riots disrupted the convention. <a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/1968-democratic-convention-931079/">Mayor Daley used his police force to crush</a> the protests. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/democratic-convention-besieged-by-protesters">Daley then bullied delegates</a> to <a href="https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/B/bo5826735.html">vote to nominate his favorite candidate, Vice President Hubert Humphrey</a>, <a href="https://time.com/4414685/1968-democratic-convention-reform-geoffrey-cowan/">even though Humphrey didn’t win a single primary election</a>. </p>
<p>All of this was covered live on television. The violence and bias threatened to taint the Democratic Party.</p>
<h2>1968 provokes reforms</h2>
<p>The Democratic Party created the McGovern–Fraser Commission in 1968 in <a href="https://teachingamericanhistory.org/library/document/mcgovern-fraser-commission-report/">response to the events in Chicago</a>. The new rules changed the party’s presidential nominating process in an attempt to make them more systematic and transparent, as well as to encourage more participation by minority groups, young people and women roughly proportional to their numbers in states.</p>
<p>It was <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2149263">these reforms</a> that launched Iowa’s caucuses in 1972.</p>
<p>In 1976, the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/08/30/iowa-caucus-a-brief-history-of-why-iowa-caucuses-are-first-election-2020-dnc-virtual-caucus/2163813001/">Iowa Republican Party followed the Democrats</a>, and they began holding caucuses on the same early date. </p>
<p>That increased the visibility of the Iowa caucuses out of proportion to their actual numeric influence in the nominating convention, where in <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020">2020 Iowa will send only 49 delegates</a> out of the estimated total of 4,594 Democratic delegates. </p>
<p>In fact, the caucuses are in large part a media event, a beauty contest, as <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt20mvfpw">scholars Hugh Winebrenner and Dennis J. Goldford</a> have suggested. </p>
<p>A legendary event occurred in <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/howard-dean-s-scream-turns-15-its-impact-american-politics-n959916">2004, when Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who came in third</a>, was cheering on his supporters as he contemplated a national campaign. But a microphone malfunction amplified his enthusiasm. What become known as the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6i-gYRAwM0">“Dean Scream”</a> tanked his candidacy. </p>
<p>In 2008 a first-term senator, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/jan-2008-barack-obama-wins-2008-iowa-caucus-52099437">Barack Obama, won the Iowa caucuses</a>, propelling him to a hard-fought nomination and two terms in the White House. </p>
<p>And in 2016, Democratic Socialist <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/02/hillary-clinton-wins-iowa-caucuses-bernie-sanders-young-voters">Bernie Sanders almost beat Hillary Clinton</a> in Iowa. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/308119/original/file-20191220-11891-1h7l3ah.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sen. Barack Obama’s surprise win in the 2008 Iowa caucus helped propel him to the presidency.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Obama-2008/a48b051db43c455ba950a68b56de00d1/48/0">AP/M. Spencer Green</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How they do it</h2>
<p>On caucus night, registered Democrats and Republican voters gather at roughly 1,700 precinct meeting places. These have been schools, libraries, churches, fire stations and <a href="https://youtu.be/wU1JrPmCZTE">people’s homes</a>. <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2019/09/20/dnc-approves-iowa-caucuses-satellite-location-plan-2020-democrats-democratic-party/2387347001/">In 2020, Democrats will also have satellite caucuses</a>, some even held overseas. </p>
<p>There are speeches by supporters for each candidate who gather into groups for each candidate. The numbers in each group are counted.</p>
<p>For <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/01/30/464960979/how-do-the-iowa-caucuses-work">the Democrats</a>, a candidate must have at least 15% of the all the participants in that precinct to be viable. Otherwise that candidate is declared “non-viable” and the supporters are asked to join another group or remain undecided.</p>
<p>Once the viable groups have been declared, a complex mathematical calculation determines how many delegates are allocated to each surviving candidate. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/01/30/464960979/how-do-the-iowa-caucuses-work">Republican caucuses</a>, attendees vote and the delegates are apportioned according to the statewide results.</p>
<h2>The Iowa caucuses become a tradition</h2>
<p>The Iowa caucuses have become a well-watched political tradition because the media devotes so much attention to the candidates’ activities in Iowa and then how they perform on caucus night. </p>
<p>Criticisms have emerged. Iowa’s small and mostly white population has subjected the caucus to the charge that it is <a href="https://fortune.com/2016/01/20/iowa-caucus-reflect-us/">not representative of the nation as a whole</a>. </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/12/19/democratic-debate-poll-says-iowa-new-hampshire-either-great-terrible/2673988001/">USA Today/Suffolk University poll</a> attests to that concern:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A 57% majority agreed that holding the opening contests in Iowa and New Hampshire was a good system “because it forces candidates to talk directly to voters.” </p>
<p>A 52% majority also agreed that holding the opening contests in Iowa and New Hampshire wasn’t a good system “because the two states don’t reflect the nation’s diversity.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There is also a concern that caucuses are difficult events to participate in because voters must attend personally and at night. The turnout rate of eligible voters is low, hovering around 10%, while <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/">primaries normally have turnout of 35% or more</a>.</p>
<p>In 2020, there is renewed debate about <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/12/too-much-democracy-is-bad-for-democracy/600766/">how Americans should select their candidates for president</a>. Caucuses are now generally in disfavor, with many states moving to primaries. </p>
<p>One thing is clear. As American candidate selection evolved from the days of political bosses to today’s caucuses and primaries, that process will continue to evolve. </p>
<p><em>This article has been corrected to clarify how GOP caucuses vote.</em></p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127173/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steffen W. Schmidt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How did a small, rural state become so influential in the presidential nominating process? A political scientist traces the development of the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus.Steffen W. Schmidt, Lucken Endowed Professor of Political Science, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1149022019-10-16T11:25:28Z2019-10-16T11:25:28ZIowa’s farmers – and American eaters – need a national discussion on transforming US agriculture<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297243/original/file-20191015-98674-1uzm4on.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Strips of native prairie grasses planted on Larry and Margaret Stone's Iowa farm protect soil, water and wildlife.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Iowa State University/Omar de Kok-Mercado</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Iowa’s <a href="http://www.iptv.org/iowapathways/artifact/history-iowa-caucus">first-in-the-nation caucuses</a> bring the state a lot of political attention during presidential election cycles. But in my view, even though some candidates have outlined <a href="https://civileats.com/2019/05/29/where-the-2020-presidential-candidates-stand-on-food-and-farming/">positions on food and farming</a>, agriculture rarely gets the attention it deserves.</p>
<p>As a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=-6bpfYUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scientist</a> at <a href="https://www.iastate.edu/">Iowa’s land-grant university</a>, I believe our state is at the forefront of redefining what agriculture could be in the U.S., and addressing environmental and economic challenges associated with the extensive monocultures that dominate our current system. I think these conversations should be at the forefront nationally. After all, everyone needs to eat, so all Americans have a stake in the future of farming.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297244/original/file-20191015-98653-1frt2b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297244/original/file-20191015-98653-1frt2b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/297244/original/file-20191015-98653-1frt2b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297244/original/file-20191015-98653-1frt2b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297244/original/file-20191015-98653-1frt2b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297244/original/file-20191015-98653-1frt2b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297244/original/file-20191015-98653-1frt2b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/297244/original/file-20191015-98653-1frt2b9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Judging produce on opening day of the 2019 Iowa State Fair.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Iowa-State-Fair/056cf586a9784af1b8143c181389bbae/238/0">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>As Iowa farms, so farms the nation</h2>
<p>Iowa is a <a href="https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=IOWA">leading global producer</a> of corn, soy, pork, beef, eggs, ethanol, biodiesel, biochemicals and agricultural technology. Because it is home to just <a href="https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/IA">3.2 million people</a>, Iowa farmers export the vast majority of what they produce. Most multinational agricultural businesses have Iowa offices, and the state also has considerable influence on U.S. <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-2018-farm-bill-means-for-urban-suburban-and-rural-america-89605">farm bill</a> legislation. </p>
<p>Iowans are also acutely aware of the challenges of modern agriculture, which affect their lands and livelihoods. They include <a href="https://theconversation.com/make-our-soil-great-again-76242">soil degradation</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-your-diet-contributes-to-nutrient-pollution-and-dead-zones-in-lakes-and-bays-118902">water contamination</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-flood-risks-increase-across-the-us-its-time-to-recognize-the-limits-of-levees-118326">flooding</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-climate-change-report-underscores-the-need-to-manage-land-for-the-short-and-long-term-121716">loss of carbon</a> and habitat for native species.</p>
<p>Farmers understand these effects, and many are actively working to <a href="https://store.extension.iastate.edu/Product/15093">reduce them</a>, as <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/can-sustainable-farming-save-iowas-precious-soil-and-water">operational, financial and social conditions allow</a>. One example in which I am involved is the <a href="https://www.nrem.iastate.edu/research/STRIPS/">STRIPS project</a>, in which scientists, farmers, land owners and others are partnering to test the effects of seeding narrow strips with native prairie plants within and around corn and soybean fields. </p>
<p>Over the last 13 years, we have shown that prairie is a valuable tool for <a href="https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1620229114">protecting water supplies and providing habitat for wildlife</a>, including pollinators. Planting just 10% of farm fields – often in the least productive zones – with stiff-stemmed native prairie grasses helps hold water and sediment in place, reducing erosion and nutrient loss from fields. The strips also contain flowering plants that support birds and insects, including pollinators and natural enemies of crop pests. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Fo13YXQY-QI?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Farmers describe the benefits of integrating small strips of prairie into row crop fields.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This approach can turn <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/014009">low-yielding acres</a> into an opportunity to reduce use of inputs such as fertilizer and pesticides. Today there are nearly 600 acres of prairie strips on about 5,000 acres of cropland on 66 farms across in six Midwestern states. My colleagues and I expect these numbers to grow dramatically now that the U.S. Department of Agriculture is <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/ia/newsroom/features/STELPRDB1143858/">supporting prairie strips as a conservation tool</a>. </p>
<p>Iowa State University scientists are working with industry to create <a href="https://www.news.iastate.edu/news/2018/10/30/nitrogensensors">sensors</a> and <a href="https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/facts/">computer models</a> that enable farmers to manage their fields for improved outcomes. They also are developing <a href="https://news.engineering.iastate.edu/2019/09/12/isu-researchers-to-study-blockchain-technology-to-improve-sustainability-in-food-markets/">supply chain tracking systems</a> that will allow consumers to use a phone app to get information about the farm that grew or raised a product before they purchase it. </p>
<p>Many groups are involved in these efforts. The Iowa chapter of <a href="https://www.nature.org/en-us/about-us/where-we-work/united-states/iowa/">The Nature Conservancy</a> is working with agricultural retailers on <a href="https://www.4rplus.org/">improving fertilizer management</a>. Collaborations of farmers, crop breeders and food suppliers – facilitated by organizations like <a href="https://practicalfarmers.org/">Practical Farmers of Iowa</a> – are fueling a renaissance in the production of small grains like oats and rye. </p>
<h2>Speeding up the transition</h2>
<p>A decade ago, my colleagues and I brought national, state and local leaders together for a <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/art10/">dialogue on the future of Iowa agriculture</a>. While we did not capture all the details, we largely anticipated this gradual shift toward more economically and environmentally sustainable farming methods.</p>
<p>As we see it, macro-scale forces are driving this transition. Global commodity markets reward efficient production, requiring farmers to do more with less. Americans are <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/232007/americans-want-government-more-environment.aspx">demanding stronger action</a> to protect the environment. Federal farm policies are increasingly encouraging <a href="https://www.usda.gov/topics/conservation">conservation</a> and <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/soils/health/">soil health</a>. And new technologies are enabling farmers to <a href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2016/december/precision-agriculture-technologies-and-factors-affecting-their-adoption/">seed and treat crops more precisely</a> and reduce harmful impacts such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/reducing-water-pollution-with-microbes-and-wood-chips-58852">nutrient pollution</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1178729974238502913"}"></div></p>
<p>I believe a much brighter future is possible if government officials, agricultural businesses and farm, commodity and environmental organizations can unite around a transformative goal. For example, the national, state and local leaders we gathered to discuss the future of Iowa agriculture proposed an initiative to <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss1/art10/">double the full value – monetary and non-monetary</a> – of our state’s agricultural economy over 25 years. </p>
<p>With widespread support, such an effort could usher in a new era of economic and environmental wealth in Farm Belt states. It would start with investing in <a href="https://theconversation.com/regenerative-agriculture-can-make-farmers-stewards-of-the-land-again-110570">regenerative systems</a> – farming methods that produce agricultural goods and services while also improving soil and water resources, unique habitats and pastoral countrysides. And it would require simultaneous investments in rural infrastructure, new businesses and local and regional markets.</p>
<h2>An alternative future</h2>
<p>What would this transformed system look like? By the 2028 Iowa caucuses, dynamic public-private partnerships of farmers, landowners and others could be working to increase crop diversity and rotations, expand conservation practices and develop necessary markets and infrastructure, such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/reaching-rural-america-with-broadband-internet-service-82488">rural broadband</a>.</p>
<p>More farmers would be planting cover crops like winter rye to help their fields retain nutrients, <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/national/soils/health/">improve soil health</a> and control weeds. Those who raise corn and soybeans could partner with neighboring livestock producers to grow <a href="https://www.sare.org/Learning-Center/Books/Building-Soils-for-Better-Crops-3rd-Edition/Text-Version/Cover-Crops/Types-of-Cover-Crops">winter crops</a> for grazing, leaving fewer fields bare.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296966/original/file-20191014-135487-rksen5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296966/original/file-20191014-135487-rksen5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296966/original/file-20191014-135487-rksen5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296966/original/file-20191014-135487-rksen5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296966/original/file-20191014-135487-rksen5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296966/original/file-20191014-135487-rksen5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296966/original/file-20191014-135487-rksen5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296966/original/file-20191014-135487-rksen5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Cattle grazing on cover crops in Sac County, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://flic.kr/p/VTAFXx">NRCS/SWCS/Lynn Betts</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Surveys show that Americans are willing to pay for initiatives that <a href="https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/soc_las_reports/1/">provide multiple benefits from farmlands</a>. Reinvestments in agriculture, renewable energy, rural development and conservation programs could be funded philanthropically and through the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-the-2018-farm-bill-means-for-urban-suburban-and-rural-america-89605">U.S. farm bill</a>.</p>
<p>By the 2048 caucuses, Iowa and other farm states where farmers mainly raise commodity crops like corn and soybeans could be producing a wide variety of goods and services, including annual and perennial grains, fiber and biomass crops, livestock, wind and solar energy, ethanol, biodiesel, fruits, vegetables, nuts and hops. Managing farm landscapes for carbon, nutrients, water and wildlife could be as central to farming as crop management is today. </p>
<p>Easy access to rural broadband, plus advances in <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25059/science-breakthroughs-to-advance-food-and-agricultural-research-by-2030">sensors, artificial intelligence and robotics</a>, would enable highly precise nutrient management, pest and disease control and manure handling.</p>
<p>Small towns could be ringed with <a href="https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2019/08/22/middlebrook-iowa-agrihood-cumming-des-moines-country-rural-urban-real-estate-home-purchase-land-farm/2062279001/">agrihoods</a> – planned communities built around working farms and community gardens. They would be vibrant and desirable places to live, offering high-tech jobs and entrepreneurial opportunities, an affordable cost of living and outdoor recreation opportunities. </p>
<h2>A national conversation</h2>
<p>Agriculture is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.12.007">always changing</a>. U.S. elected leaders hold substantial influence over this process through their public platforms and ability to make policy.</p>
<p>A decade ago, my colleagues and I saw a choice for U.S. agriculture: incremental improvement, or a push for transformational change that would improve communities and landscapes in farm country. The incremental approach is not moving quickly enough, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-of-americas-rural-areas-are-doomed-to-decline-115343">rural communities and landscapes are suffering</a> as a result.</p>
<p>Transformational change could look like the future I have described. How do we make it happen? Iowa and other farm states are ready for that conversation.</p>
<p>[ <em>Insight, in your inbox each day.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=insight">You can get it with The Conversation’s email newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114902/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Schulte Moore has received funding from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FSA, NIFA, SARE), the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research, Walton Family Foundation, McKnight Foundation, Iowa State University, Leopold Center for Sustainable Agriculture, USDA Forest Service, National Science Foundation, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Bayer Crop Science, The Nature Conservancy, Syngenta, Iowa Soybean Association, Iowa Agriculture Water Alliance, DuPont-Pioneer, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, Iowa Ornithological Union, and Iowa Native Plant Society. She is on the boards of the Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Practical Farmers of Iowa, and Iowa Chapter of The Nature Conservancy. </span></em></p>Investing in farming methods that improve lands and water, and in rural infrastructure and markets, could bring new prosperity to agricultural communities.Lisa Schulte Moore, Professor of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Iowa State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1195712019-07-30T12:37:56Z2019-07-30T12:37:56ZHow did the US presidential campaign get to be so long?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/545384/original/file-20230829-9973-huoio9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=121%2C363%2C4932%2C3530&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley holds a town hall in South Carolina on Aug. 28, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/following-a-strong-performance-in-the-first-republican-news-photo/1629838244?adppopup=true">Peter Zay/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Four hundred and forty-four days prior to the 2024 presidential election, millions of Americans tuned into the first Republican primary debate. If this seems like a long time to contemplate the candidates, it is. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/10/21/450238156/canadas-11-week-campaign-reminds-us-that-american-elections-are-much-longer">By comparison</a>, Canadian election campaigns average just 50 days. In France, candidates have just two weeks to campaign, while Japanese law restricts campaigns to a meager 12 days. </p>
<p>Those countries all give more power than the United States does to the legislative branch, which might explain the limited attention to the selection of the chief executive. But Mexico – which, like the US, has a <a href="https://www.annenbergclassroom.org/glossary_term/presidential-system/">presidential system</a> – only allows 90 days for its presidential campaigns, with a 60-day “pre-season,” the equivalent of the US nomination campaign. </p>
<p>So by all accounts, the United States has exceptionally long elections – and they just keep getting longer. <a href="https://www.drake.edu/polsci/facultystaff/rachelpainecaufield/">As a political scientist living in Iowa</a>, I’m acutely aware of how long the modern American presidential campaign has become.</p>
<p>It wasn’t always this way. The seemingly interminable presidential campaign is <a href="https://www.stanforddaily.com/2019/01/22/as-length-of-presidential-campaigns-increases-2020-might-follow-suit/">a modern phenomenon</a>. It originated out of widespread frustration with the control that national parties used to wield over the selection of candidates. But changes to election procedures, along with <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2960400?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">media coverage</a> that started to depict the election as a horse race, <a href="https://www.stanforddaily.com/2019/01/22/as-length-of-presidential-campaigns-increases-2020-might-follow-suit/">have also contributed to the trend</a>.</p>
<h2>Wresting power from party elites</h2>
<p>For most of American history, party elites determined who would be best suited to compete in the general election. It was a process that took little time and required virtually no public campaigning by candidates. </p>
<p>But beginning in the early 20th century, populists and progressives <a href="https://conventions.cps.neu.edu/history/the-progressive-era-reforms-and-the-birth-of-the-primaries-1890-1960/">fought for greater public control over the selection of their party’s candidates</a>. They introduced the modern presidential primary and advocated for a more inclusive selection process of convention delegates. As candidates sought support from a wider range of people, they began to employ modern campaign tactics, like advertising. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, becoming the nominee didn’t require a protracted campaign.</p>
<p>Consider 1952, when <a href="https://millercenter.org/president/eisenhower/campaigns-and-elections">Dwight Eisenhower</a> publicly announced that he was a Republican just 10 months before the general election and indicated that he was willing to run for president. Even then, he remained overseas as NATO commander until June, when he resigned to campaign full time. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=462&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286096/original/file-20190729-43145-6bapdc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=581&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Harry S. Truman points to Adlai E. Stevenson, as he introduces him at the 1952 Democratic convention in Chicago.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-CVN-IL-USA-APHS420172-DNC-Stevenson-/7a7a2497ac6648e1a05f9bd8914ba958/11/0">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On the Democratic side, despite encouragement from President Harry Truman, <a href="https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1996-07-26-9701150606-story.html">Adlai Stevenson</a> repeatedly rejected efforts to draft him for the nomination, until his welcoming address at the national convention in July 1952 – just a few months before the general election. His speech excited the delegates so much that they put his name in the running, and he became the nominee. </p>
<p>And in 1960, even though <a href="https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/kennedys-nomination-was-a-big-moment-for-the-primary-system/">John F. Kennedy</a> appeared on the ballot in only 10 of the party’s 16 state primaries, he was still able to use his win in heavily Protestant West Virginia to convince party leaders that he could attract support, despite his Catholicism.</p>
<h2>A shift to primaries</h2>
<p>The contentious <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/1960s/1968-democratic-convention">1968 Democratic convention</a> in Chicago, however, led to a series of reforms. </p>
<p>That convention had pitted young anti-war activists supporting Eugene McCarthy against older establishment supporters of Vice President Hubert Humphrey. Thousands of protesters rioted in the streets as Humphrey was nominated. It revealed deep divisions within the party, with many members convinced that party elites had operated against their wishes. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/20452374?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">The resulting changes to the nomination process</a> – dubbed the McGovern-Fraser reforms – were explicitly designed to allow rank-and-file party voters to participate in the nomination of a presidential candidate.</p>
<p>States increasingly <a href="http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-modern-history-of-the-democratic-presidential-primary-1972-2008/?upm_export=print">shifted</a> to public primaries rather than party caucuses. In a party <a href="https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/caucus-system-us-presidential-nominating-process">caucus system</a> – like that used in Iowa – voters meet at a designated time and place to discuss candidates and issues in person. By design, a caucus tends to attract activists deeply engaged in party politics. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works/?utm_term=.eb8b072ce77c">Primaries</a>, on the other hand, are conducted by the state government and require only that a voter show up for a few moments to cast their ballot. </p>
<p>As political scientist Elaine Kamarck <a href="https://www.npr.org/books/titles/471571510/primary-politics-everything-you-need-to-know-about-how-america-nominates-its-pre">has noted</a>, in 1968, only 15 states held primaries; by 1980, 37 states held primaries. For the 2024 election, only Iowa, Nevada, Idaho, North Dakota, Utah and Hawaii <a href="https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-calendar/">have confirmed that they’ll hold caucuses</a>; the remaining U.S. states and territories will likely hold primaries.</p>
<p>The growing number of primaries meant that candidates were encouraged to use any tool at their disposal to reach as many voters as possible. Candidates became more entrepreneurial, name recognition and media attention became more important, and campaigns became more media savvy – and expensive. </p>
<p>This shift marked the beginning of what political scientists call the “<a href="https://newbooksnetwork.com/brian-arbour-candidate-centered-campaigns-political-messages-winning-personalities-and-personal-appeals-palgrave-macmillan-2014/">candidate-centered campaign</a>.” </p>
<h2>The early bird gets the worm</h2>
<p>In 1974, as he concluded his term as Governor of Georgia, just <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=4XKu7rZVG1AC&pg=PA88&lpg=PA88&dq=jimmy+carter+name+recognition+1974&source=bl&ots=8jlO6tdIuz&sig=ACfU3U3TgTIDwPyhGezopzRq5_uG05YxcQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi1wayNldvjAhWKZ80KHUC1C0w4FBDoATAJegQIChAB#v=onepage&q=jimmy%20carter%20name%20recognition%201974&f=false">2% of voters</a> recognized the name of Democrat Jimmy Carter. He had virtually no money. </p>
<p>But Carter theorized that he could build momentum by proving himself in states that held early primaries and caucuses. So on Dec. 12, 1974 – 691 days before the general election – <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1974/12/13/archives/georgias-gov-carter-enters-democratic-race-for-president-governor.html">Carter announced his presidential campaign</a>. Over the course of 1975, he spent much of his time in Iowa, talking to voters and building a campaign operation in the state. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/286095/original/file-20190729-43118-1bf5wv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jimmy Carter speaks to a crowd of supporters at a farm in Des Moines, Iowa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/Search?query=jimmy+carter+iowa&ss=10&st=kw&entitysearch=&toItem=18&orderBy=Newest&searchMediaType=allmedia">AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By October 1975, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1975/10/27/archives/carter-appears-to-hold-a-solid-lead-in-iowa-as-the-campaigns-first.html">The New York Times was heralding Carter’s popularity in Iowa</a>, pointing to his folksy style, agricultural roots and political prowess. Carter came in second in that caucus – “uncommitted” won – but he yielded more votes than any other named candidate. Carter’s campaign was widely accepted as the runaway victor, boosting his prominence, name recognition and fundraising. </p>
<p>Carter would go on to win the nomination and the election.</p>
<p>His successful campaign became <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/jimmy-carter-iowa-caucuses/426729/">the stuff of political legend</a>. Generations of political candidates and organizers have since adopted the early start, hoping that a better-than-expected showing in Iowa or New Hampshire will similarly propel them to the White House. </p>
<h2>Other states crave the spotlight</h2>
<p>As candidates tried to <a href="http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/06/jimmy-carter-is-emerging-as-a-role-model-in-2020-primaries.html">repeat Carter’s success</a>, other states tried to steal some of Iowa’s political prominence by pushing their contests earlier and earlier in the nomination process, a trend called “<a href="https://www.uakron.edu/bliss/docs/state-of-the-parties-documents/Wattier.pdf">frontloading</a>.” </p>
<p>In 1976, when Carter ran, <a href="https://ir.uiowa.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1083&context=polisci_pubs">just 10% of national convention delegates were selected by March 2</a>. By 2008, 70% of delegates were selected by March 2.</p>
<p>When state primaries and caucuses were spread out in the calendar, candidates could compete in one state, then move their campaign operation to the next state, raise some money and spend time getting to know the activists, issues and voters before the next primary or caucus. A frontloaded system, in contrast, requires candidates to run a campaign in dozens of states at the same time. </p>
<p>To be competitive in so many states at the same time, campaigns rely on extensive <a href="https://www.thecampaignworkshop.com/paid-media-vs-earned-media-how-do-they-fit-campaign-budget">paid and earned</a> media exposure and a robust campaign staff, all of which require substantial name recognition and campaign cash before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. </p>
<p>The parties exacerbated these trends in 2016 and 2020, using the number of donors and public polls to determine who is eligible for early debates. For example, <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rnc-debate-rules_n_647a532ae4b091b09c32a9b9">to earn a place on the stage</a> of the first Republican debate in August 2023, candidates had to accumulate at least 40,000 donors and at least 1% support in three national polls.</p>
<p>So that’s how the U.S. got to where it is today.</p>
<p>A century ago, Warren Harding announced his successful candidacy 321 days before the 1920 election. </p>
<p>In the 2020 race, Democratic Congressman John Delaney announced his White House bid a record 1,194 days before election.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on July 30, 2019.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rachel Paine Caufield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>While other countries set strict limits on the length of campaigns, American presidential races have become drawn-out, yearslong affairs. It wasn’t always this way.Rachel Paine Caufield, Professor of Political Science, Drake UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/543232016-02-09T03:36:46Z2016-02-09T03:36:46ZYou’re fired! Donald Trump shows rivals how it’s done in entertainment politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110582/original/image-20160208-5242-1p6n0pm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Trump's performances never fail to make breaking news, securing him the public's attention.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcQofjJgwvU">World News Today/youtube</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/democracy-futures">Democracy Futures</a> series, a <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/democracy-futures/">joint global initiative</a> with the <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/">Sydney Democracy Network</a>. The project aims to stimulate fresh thinking about the many challenges facing democracies in the 21st century.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>It was yet another twist in a US <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/2016-us-presidential-election">presidential race</a> overflowing with the unexpected and the unbelievable. Donald Trump headed into the Iowa caucus as the clear Republican frontrunner, but left <a href="https://theconversation.com/four-key-takeaways-from-the-iowa-caucuses-54054">defeated</a> though not – in his mind – <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/videos/news/nation/2016/02/02/79732372/">humiliated</a>. He <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/02/donald-trump-explains-iowa-loss">admitted</a> that “we could have used a better ground game, a term I wasn’t familiar with”.</p>
<p>Trump’s contrition was typically short-lived. Taking to Twitter, he <a href="http://hollywoodlife.com/2016/02/03/donald-trump-wants-rematch-iowa-caucus-ted-cruz-fraud-election/">accused Ted Cruz</a> of committing electoral fraud to win in Iowa. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"694890328273346560"}"></div></p>
<p>Cruz branded the outburst the latest in a string of <a href="http://hollywoodlife.com/2016/02/03/ted-cruz-mocks-donald-trump-rant-trumpertantrum-twitter-iowa-caucus/">#Trumpertantrums</a>.</p>
<p>This episode in the reality drama of US politics has reaffirmed two things. </p>
<p>First, it’s incredibly difficult to pin Trump down as a character. He remains highly unpredictable and almost impossible to categorise. Now he’s embroiled himself in fresh scandal <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/06/donald-trump-waterboarding-republican-debate-torture">by saying</a> he’d bring back a “hell of a lot worse than waterboarding”. </p>
<p>As a leading man, Trump fascinates and infuriates. Branded a <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/edward-goldman/trump-president-no-trump_b_7974018.html">performance artist</a> by many, he demands an audience. And he’s got one – millions of spellbound Americans.</p>
<p>Vanity Fair columnist James Wolcott <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2015/11/wolcott-trump-insult-comic">observed</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Watch Trump on the televised stump or during debates with the sound off (your blood pressure will thank you) and observe how he grips the lectern, employing a battery of shrugs, hand jive and staccato phrase blurts – it’s like being teleported back to an old Dean Martin roast, those medieval days of yore when Foster Brooks hiccupped through his drunk act, Phyllis Diller cackled, or Orson Welles shook from underground rumbles of Falstaffian mirth.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110704/original/image-20160209-12822-1f3xvwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110704/original/image-20160209-12822-1f3xvwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110704/original/image-20160209-12822-1f3xvwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110704/original/image-20160209-12822-1f3xvwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110704/original/image-20160209-12822-1f3xvwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=680&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110704/original/image-20160209-12822-1f3xvwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110704/original/image-20160209-12822-1f3xvwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110704/original/image-20160209-12822-1f3xvwt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=854&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sarah Palin takes the stage to endorse Donald Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ajhanson/23864003884/in/photolist-CSb6Jh-CKN5Qn-DgYzvf-CSb6F1-CKN5Pk-CmMfWQ-DgYzBN-CKN5Nt-D9HSym-D9HSB7-DjhQUn-DjhR3P-CmUnpV-D9HSL5-DjhR7B-D9HSQy">Alex Hanson/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Trump gets under your skin. No other politician (at least in the West) comes close to matching his cult of personality. Aside from maybe Sarah Palin, with whom Trump recently <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/20/us/politics/donald-trump-sarah-palin.html?_r=0">teamed up</a>, there’s no one else quite like him.</p>
<p>The second observation coming out of Iowa is that we had better get used to unexpected plot twists this election season. Trump confounds commentators who stake their professional credibility on predicting electoral outcomes. Yet he has the rest of us hooked: there’s no telling what will happen next. It’s good drama even if it’s bad politics.</p>
<h2>Applying the tricks of the reality TV trade</h2>
<p>According to <a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=10124077&fulltextType=DS&fileId=S1049096515001225">new research</a>, these observations may explain why Trump’s substantial lead in the polls <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/268544-poll-trumps-lead-grows-in-nh-days-before-primary">has grown</a> on the eve of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-new-hampshire-primary-and-why-does-it-matter-53412">New Hampshire primary</a>.</p>
<p>This research suggests electoral battles are now no different to theatrical entertainment. If their policies aren’t to fall flat, the candidates must learn the tricks of the showbiz trade. </p>
<p>Theatre is all important when political popularity is pegged not only to policies but also to the performances one gives. Mediated by “camera angles and online producers”, politics is now all about creating the right kinds of “narrative trajectories” to unite and divide the masses.</p>
<p>During election campaigns, political performances have to go a step further and entertain the people as well. As Charles Guggenheim, former campaign adviser to Robert Kennedy, once observed:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The people expect drama, pathos, intrigue, conflict, and they expect it to hang together as a dramatic package.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Those capable of ticking all these boxes, of putting on a good show, are more likely to draw a crowd. To see Trump as the mercurial lead in a Republican drama may help us understand why this unlikely candidate has won such widespread support.</p>
<p>More than most, Trump knows how to exploit theatrical tropes. He’s done it for years on his reality TV show, The Apprentice. With his characteristic “You’re fired”, Trump has won more than ratings battles. He’s won a loyal following. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"696514666843996160"}"></div></p>
<p><a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/donald-trump-reality-tv-show">Commentators</a> have noted that the presidential race, particularly on the Republican side, is playing out like a reality TV drama. Election watchers are given “what they love, the chance to see recognisable human beings sweat it out for the big stakes”.</p>
<p>Even longtime Survivor host Jeff Probst <a href="http://time.com/4186326/donald-trump-sarah-palin-ted-cruz-duck-dynasty-2016-election/">commented</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This year does seem to be unique … at times, it does feel as though we’re watching a reality show and not a presidential campaign, and I don’t ever remember feeling that way.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>People who aren’t “super interested in changing our country”, Probst said, are drawn in by the “promise of the great story that’s about to be told to us, the public spectacle we’re going to witness”.</p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110706/original/image-20160209-12837-1cu3kao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110706/original/image-20160209-12837-1cu3kao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110706/original/image-20160209-12837-1cu3kao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=790&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110706/original/image-20160209-12837-1cu3kao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=790&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110706/original/image-20160209-12837-1cu3kao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=790&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110706/original/image-20160209-12837-1cu3kao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=993&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110706/original/image-20160209-12837-1cu3kao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=993&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110706/original/image-20160209-12837-1cu3kao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=993&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The theatrical master at work on the political stage.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jbouie/21447930665/in/photolist-8SFTjC-8SCMEP-8SFSjG-8SFTpS-8SCKLZ-8SFQGy-8SFTBN-8SCMdM-8SFTV1-8SCLjz-8SFSGY-8SCMrB-8SCLbt-8SCLKz-8SFTvA-8SCLxT-8SFSN9-8SFQNf-8SFRKC-yoEqTo-yCXPEo-xJfKqd-yCXN2U-8SCNr2-8SFSU3-8SFRbQ-8SCKTe-8SFRRE-8SFSAu-xJoWH6-yoLmGK-yFhfy2-yEj6tY-yEj7jA-yEj6hL-xJoVGD-yEj5Pm-yoFymf-yG2NiK-yG2NuM-yCXNU5-yoEqjY-yoLmW2-yFhgL2-yoEpo9-yoLn22-yEj6cq-yoEpFU-yEj579-yEj4Uf">Jamelle Bouie/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As a long-time master of the theatrical arts, Trump has turned the presidential race into his own mediated spectacle. He knows that if he gets his presidential narrative right he can – to paraphrase <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/donald-trump-reality-tv-show">JFK</a> – manipulate, exploit and seize on the public’s emotion, prejudice and ignorance.</p>
<p>As for the things he can’t control – the twists and turns on the campaign trail – they also work to keep audiences on the edge of their seats. When things are too predictable, they become boring and people lose interest. </p>
<p>A Trumpertantrum every now and then can do wonders for ratings. Losing a caucus most expected him to win only adds to the intrigue.</p>
<h2>Should we keep watching?</h2>
<p>As the primary season heads from New Hampshire to Nevada and South Carolina, some question whether we should watch the political coverage at all. Given that it’s all a show, purposely mediated to draw us in, aren’t we better off tuning out for something a little more substantive?</p>
<p>Our response is the same as the one New York Times columnist Rob Walker <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/08/magazine/electoral-politics-and-reality-tv.html">has offered</a>. For him, it’s a fantasy to think elections would all of a sudden become more “high-minded” if we got rid of the “reality-showbiz fireworks”. Getting rid of the theatrical is not only impossible, it also wouldn’t make Americans and their presidential candidates any more willing to take part in rational debate that’s backed by verified evidence.</p>
<p>No. Elections-as-entertainment do not detract from policy substance at all, as Walker sees it. What they do distract from “is who won The X Factor, the deeper meaning of Tim Tebow’s quarterback rating and whatever Zeppo Kardashian is up to this week”. That is “the reality of the situation”, and he’s all for it.</p>
<p>We agree with Walker, though we’d add one point. Precisely because contemporary elections are mediated spectacles that can entertain and deceive, it’s important for citizens to become more aware of the tropes and techniques used in showbiz to pull an audience. To go from passive observers to active spectators, we must know what to watch out for.</p>
<p>For this reason, more space needs to be provided this election season for theatre and performance experts to educate the rest of us about the drama of electoral politics. </p>
<p>Luckily, there are theatre scholars who are keen to do this work, including Princeton-based <a href="http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/tt/summary/v011/11.1dolan.html">Jill Dolan</a>. Her point is that those “trained to look critically at performance, to study its links to ideology and culture” can offer themselves as:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… experts who study the election and the debates through a performative lens – not one that stresses entertainment value, but one that looks at gesture, narrative manipulations, contexts and ‘spin’ with an eye toward the politics they convey.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We need this sort of coverage in the coming weeks and months. We might then just get to the bottom of this twisted electoral tale.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54323/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Donald Trump has applied the lessons of winning a TV audience to politics. Much as we might deplore the theatre of entertaining voters, we can’t wish it away.Mark Chou, Associate Professor of Politics, Australian Catholic UniversityMichael Ondaatje, Associate Professor of History & Head of the National School of Arts, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/538422016-02-05T12:57:47Z2016-02-05T12:57:47ZWhy the US presidential primary system is no way to run a democracy<p>The US baseball season is infamously long. Each team plays 162 games from the first week of April to the last week in September. October is reserved for the playoffs and the World Series. Then there’s the pre-season: spring training starts in February, and the multi-million dollar trade deals consume much of the preceding winter months. November tends to be quiet, a reflective period to consider the year gone by and speculate on the one ahead. Yet the marathon season that follows, fans anticipate opening day as if it were the only event in the calendar. </p>
<p>America’s other favourite pastime, politics, works in much the same way. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-what-do-the-iowa-results-actually-mean-53574">Iowa caucuses</a> are opening day, and if you believe all the hype, they can seem as important as the November main event. And then, once Iowa’s done with, everyone suddenly remembers the season is actually very, very long.</p>
<p>This would be less absurd if every election were not talked about as if it were exceptional. Journalist E J Dionne called this year’s road to Iowa a “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-long-painful-road-to-iowa/2016/01/31/e9b9e92e-c6e6-11e5-9693-933a4d31bcc8_story.html">painful</a>” implosion of party coalitions and public anxieties that demonstrated the end of political certainties. But when has this not been the case?</p>
<p>Iowa’s bizarre caucus system and the seemingly endless media frenzy have encouraged political mayhem since the state took its place at the start of the calendar in the 1970s. The unexpected is generally to be expected: think of <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/19/politics/iowa-caucus/">Rick Santorum’s razor-thin win</a> in 2012, or <a href="http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/IA.html">Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee’s more convincing ones</a> in 2008, or the litany of “remarkable” second-place showings by anti-establishment candidates such as <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/10/us/the-2000-campaign-the-end-forbes-spent-millions-but-for-little-gain.html">Steve Forbes</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1996/02/16/opinion/abroad-at-home-the-angry-man.html">Pat Buchanan</a>. </p>
<h2>Hyperbole and hype</h2>
<p>The “opening day” hyperbole quickly dissipates post-Iowa. The political season only begins in earnest when a bloated field of candidates starts to shed some dead weight. And for all the ink spilled over how this year is “different”, the same process is already well underway.</p>
<p>After nearly being knocked into third place by a surging Marco Rubio, the political poetry surrounding Donald Trump is already evaporating. Before Iowa, <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/124560/trump-wins">Jeet Heer</a>, <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/428415/krauthammers-take-if-trump-nomineeparty-could-be-facing-another-goldwater-scenario">Charles Krauthammer</a>, <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2015/1204/Donald-Trump-and-Ted-Cruz-Is-this-a-second-coming-of-Barry-Goldwater">Linda Feldmann</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/whether-or-not-trump-wins-the-republican-party-may-never-recover-53151">Liam Kennedy</a> were all calling him the new <a href="http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/07/barry-m-goldwater-the-most-consequential-loser-in-american-politics">Barry Goldwater</a>; <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/17/newt-gingrich-says-donald-trump-reminds-him-of-andrew-jackson/">Newt Gingrich</a> and <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/article/427536/donald-trump-appeal-jacksonian">Rich Lowry</a> likened him to President Andrew Jackson, and the Donald “shrugged off” comparisons to <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-shrugs-off-hitler-comparison/story?id=35645113">Hitler</a>, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/donald-trump/12132320/Donald-Trump-is-the-Mussolini-of-America-with-double-the-vulgarity.html">Mussolini</a>, and Harry Potter’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/dec/08/jk-rowling-on-donald-trump-voldemort-was-nowhere-as-bad">Lord Voldemort</a>. </p>
<p>Now, as Trump campaigns in New Hampshire, those comparisons ring rather less true. And while a blowout New Hampshire win could revive him, Trump’s own wisecrack that “no one remembers who came in second” might well materialise, as <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/02/opinions/republican-iowa-results-stanley/">some</a> already prepare to write off his candidacy as a historical blip.</p>
<p>Others, such as Martin O’Malley, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Rand Paul, have already suspended their campaigns after abysmally poor Iowa returns. Many Republicans polling in the low single digits in New Hampshire may well do the same. </p>
<h2>A corrosive process</h2>
<p>Today’s primary process has a deeply insidious effect on the country’s democracy. Even though Iowa and New Hampshire have relatively small populations and very homogenous demographics, they attract disproportionate attention from candidates and tend to set the tone for the long campaign. </p>
<p>Additionally, voting methods vary wildly from state to state. Open primaries such as South Carolina’s do not require voters to be affiliated with a party, and the spectre of one party’s supporters voting disruptively in the other’s contest is often raised by unhappy losing candidates. More astoundingly still, some primaries elect non-binding delegates to national conventions who can defy the will of the electorate if they so choose.</p>
<p>The principle behind directly elected presidential nominees was designed to do away with bossism, or the nomination of candidates in <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2008-02-20/news/0802200331_1_smoke-filled-room-nominee-party-conventions">smoke-filled rooms</a> of white, male, privileged party patrons. </p>
<p>This tendency was at its worst back in 1912, when the first primary elections took place. Theodore Roosevelt won nine of the 13 states then participating in primaries. Although Roosevelt served seven years as a Republican president, he wasn’t the establishment choice; the party ended up <a href="http://270soft.com/2012/10/15/1912-presidential-primaries-results/">re-nominating the sitting president</a>, William Howard Taft, in spite of the primary results. </p>
<p>But even the direct election of presidential nominees has regularly been subject to establishment review. “Compromise candidates” such as <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/1600/presidents/warrenharding">Warren G Harding</a>, <a href="http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/disp_textbook.cfm?smtID=2&psid=3393">John W Davis</a>, <a href="https://www.gwu.edu/%7Eerpapers/teachinger/glossary/willkie-wendell.cfm">Wendell Willkie</a>, <a href="https://www.questia.com/library/7396119/how-we-drafted-adlai-stevenson">Adlai Stevenson</a>, and <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=25964">Hubert Humphrey</a>, as well as boss favourites such as <a href="http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5168/">Alf Landon</a>, <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/chi-chicagodays-deweydefeats-story-story.html">Thomas Dewey</a>, and <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2007/09/remember_1984.html">Walter Mondale</a> clinched their party’s nominations despite losing or barely winning primary elections. </p>
<p>In especially close contests, notably the marathon 2008 Democratic nomination battle, questions tend to arise about <a href="http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/obama-voter-fraud/2008/10/27/id/326134/.">voting irregularities</a> This year’s first iteration of this problem is the <a href="http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/sometimes-iowa-democrats-award-caucus-delegates-coin-flip/79680342/">coin tosses</a> used in the shockingly close Democratic Iowa caucuses. Whether or <a href="http://www.npr.org/2016/02/02/465268206/coin-toss-fact-check-no-coin-flips-did-not-win-iowa-for-hillary-clinton">not</a> they affected the results, such methods are surely a mockery of representative democracy.</p>
<p>There are some obvious changes that could fix these problems. End the slow-drip of elections by grouping states in large blocs to ensure national participation; force states to elect nominees via fair ballot processes standardised across all 50 states and <a href="http://www.fairvote.org/puerto-rico-and-other-territories-vote-in-primaries-but-not-in-general-election">territories</a>; and either insist that national convention delegates vote according to primary results, or do away with the anachronistic delegate process altogether. </p>
<p>But of course, these are the very elements of the nomination process that make it lively, exciting, and attractive to new voters. And that is, in another very real sense, truly democratic. After all, the Trump and Sanders campaigns have seemingly brought thousands of <a href="http://time.com/4196622/trump-sanders-voters/">first-time voters</a> into the process.</p>
<p>The lull in excitement will come. The nominees will emerge. A winner will eventually be crowned. But, with Opening Day out of the way, it’s worth pausing to consider the absurdity of the political pre-season – and to wonder if this couldn’t all be done a little better.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53842/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Patrick Cullinane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>America’s way of choosing its president is marred by murky voting methods, a warped calendar, and too much hype.Michael Patrick Cullinane, Reader in US History, Northumbria University, NewcastleLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/541122016-02-03T08:53:27Z2016-02-03T08:53:27ZAfter Iowa: why elections matter in the age of networked politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110100/original/image-20160203-5865-vpgha7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Welcome to the 2016 Iowa Caucus. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/donkeyhotey/24114465483/">DonkeyHotey/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This article is part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/democracy-futures">Democracy Futures</a> series, a <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/democracy-futures/">joint global initiative</a> with the <a href="http://sydneydemocracynetwork.org/">Sydney Democracy Network</a>. The project aims to stimulate fresh thinking about the many challenges facing democracies in the 21st century.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>6:00 AM and the alarm goes off. In Sydney it’s Tuesday, February 2nd, but in Des Moines, Iowa, it’s still Monday. I wake with a start. The day of the caucus has come.</p>
<p>Finally, after months of endless debate and mountains of cash spent on often <a href="http://www.salon.com/2016/01/26/even_his_moms_like_i_dont_know_trevor_noah_lays_waste_to_the_last_days_of_the_jeb_bush_campaign/">risible or tasteless advertisements</a>, it’s time (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-35457094">at least for the people of Iowa</a>) to choose which Democratic and Republican candidates deserve the nomination to run for President of the United States this November.</p>
<p>The outcome, in both camps, is everything but certain. A quick scroll through some of the main media outlets (ABC, BBC, New York Times, even Fox News) reveals an undoubtedly tangible tension in the US, and we have latched onto the suspense. Perhaps I should skip coffee and make some popcorn instead. It feels as if the winners in Iowa will win much more than the few delegates the Iowans will send to the national convention (a meagre 1% of the overall number).</p>
<p>While browsing through the headlines, I catch myself wondering, is this really the first stop in the long march towards the US presidential election? Or is it the season premiere of <a href="http://www.hbo.com/game-of-thrones">Game of Thrones</a>? Is it the Iowa caucus that everyone is fighting for, or is it the Iron Throne?</p>
<p>Who will win in the end? Hillary, the Ice Queen from <a href="http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/Casterly_Rock">Casterly Rock</a>, or Bernie, the Old Wise Man from <a href="http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/Beyond_the_Wall">beyond the Wall</a>? Will it be Donald, the <a href="http://gameofthrones.wikia.com/wiki/Braavos">Braavoso</a> Merchant with the orange head? And what about Ted, a <a href="http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Meereen">Great Master from Meeren</a>? Or Jeb, the younger brother of <a href="http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Meereen">a fallen King</a>?</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110102/original/image-20160203-5840-tlyso3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110102/original/image-20160203-5840-tlyso3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110102/original/image-20160203-5840-tlyso3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110102/original/image-20160203-5840-tlyso3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110102/original/image-20160203-5840-tlyso3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110102/original/image-20160203-5840-tlyso3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110102/original/image-20160203-5840-tlyso3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p>It’s hard to say at this stage, and though some already seem to be out of the race, others keep on fighting. There are still many contestants, but, as far as I can see, no <a href="http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/House_Stark">Stark</a> or <a href="http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Daenerys_Targaryen">Dragon Queen</a> in the race. What a shame! <a href="http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Jon_Snow">Jon Snow</a> or <a href="http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Daenerys_Targaryen">Daenerys Targaryen</a> would have certainly given the US presidential race a different kind of taste.</p>
<p>Even if it is not the ultimate battle for the Iron Throne, a victory in Iowa is not without importance. Iowans are not clairvoyants, <a href="http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/articles/2016-01-21/why-the-iowa-caucuses-matter-to-the-2016-presidential-election">their choice is not always a guarantee of ultimate success</a>. In 1992 Bill Clinton came fourth, earning a paltry 2.8% before serving a two-term presidency, and in 2008, the Republicans chose Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney over John McCain, who would eventually go on to win the nomination. At best one can say that Iowa has had mixed success when it comes to choosing the final nominee for either party.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the stakes are high. Iowa is <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-iowa-caucuses-matter-for-donald-trump-and-bernie-sanders/">an important stage</a> in the long race toward the final nomination: a defeat can deflate overhyped expectations, just as a resounding victory can bring in money and media exposure, possible lifelines for a stuttering candidate.</p>
<p>As it stands, despite the early morning hype, my only concern is that this ending might not be an unforgettable cliff-hanger, and instead be as unimaginative and disappointing as <a href="http://gawker.com/5545877/the-lost-finale-was-incredibly-dumb">the final episode of Lost.</a></p>
<h2>Late Evening</h2>
<p>The race is over, at least in Iowa, for the Republicans. For the Democrats, things are still uncertain. The Ice Queen may have kept a very thin edge over the Old Wise Man; the Grand Master of Meeren, on the other end, has definitely defeated the Merchant from Bravoos. It is a mildly surprising result.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110104/original/image-20160203-5853-1i7n2mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110104/original/image-20160203-5853-1i7n2mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110104/original/image-20160203-5853-1i7n2mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110104/original/image-20160203-5853-1i7n2mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110104/original/image-20160203-5853-1i7n2mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110104/original/image-20160203-5853-1i7n2mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110104/original/image-20160203-5853-1i7n2mx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gage Skidmore/flickr</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The pollsters had indicated Clinton and Trump as possible <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/campaign-2016-final-poll-released-ahead-of-iowa-caucuses-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/">winners</a> with a margin of about 3%. However, Hillary Clinton was neck and neck with Bernie Sanders until the very end, with most commentators calling it a virtual tie that was so close that six districts had to be decided with a <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35473068">coin toss</a>. The battle on the other side of the political spectrum was a bit clearer: Ted Cruz won by more than a 3% margin.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110107/original/image-20160203-5846-mrofy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110107/original/image-20160203-5846-mrofy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110107/original/image-20160203-5846-mrofy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110107/original/image-20160203-5846-mrofy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110107/original/image-20160203-5846-mrofy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110107/original/image-20160203-5846-mrofy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110107/original/image-20160203-5846-mrofy6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Bernie Sanders.</span>
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<p>While losing Iowa isn’t great news for Sanders and Trump’s supporters, their candidates are still very much in the race. Sanders showed that the latest polls were correct: the <a href="http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/18/rel8b.-.democrats.2016.pdf">18 point gap</a> between him and Clinton, the democratic frontrunner last August was virtually nil when the Iowans went to vote on Monday. And Cruz’s victory, though surprising, was due not to a fiasco of Mr Trump’s campaign but to ‘<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/us/ted-cruz-wins-republican-caucus.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news">a surge of support from evangelical Christians</a>’, which he may not be able to rely on in other states.</p>
<h2>Should we care?</h2>
<p>As Sydney’s Tuesday approaches sunset, the Iowans get ready for bed, one of my oldest friends asks me, very politely, ‘why do you care?’.</p>
<p>He has a point. I am not American, so, academic interest aside, I should have no reason to care about this election. However, the problem my good friend fails to grasp is that despite what it often looks like, American Politics is not another TV series.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1856010/">Netflix’s House of Cards</a> is a great show (at least it was in the first two seasons) but I seriously doubt the American Congress is as entertaining - and I have some issues imagining Obama as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Underwood_%28House_of_Cards%29">Frank Underwood</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110101/original/image-20160203-5840-h099e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110101/original/image-20160203-5840-h099e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110101/original/image-20160203-5840-h099e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110101/original/image-20160203-5840-h099e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110101/original/image-20160203-5840-h099e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110101/original/image-20160203-5840-h099e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110101/original/image-20160203-5840-h099e1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
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</figure>
<p>Even George W. Bush doesn’t fit the bill, perhaps <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/13/politics/13cheney.html">Dick Cheney</a> would be a better candidate for a real-life Frank.</p>
<p>More seriously, the disappointment of a television series ending (like Lost) is easy to shrug off: a regrettable and considerable waste of my time and my brain’s energy, but nothing else. The after taste of whoever ends up sitting in the Oval Office after this election might be a bit more difficult to wash away.</p>
<p>Indeed, the choice of president in the United States could have very dire consequences for us all. Whatever our political beliefs are and wherever we live in the world, what happens in America will play an influential role in shaping our present and future, whether we like it or not.</p>
<p>Amazon Studios has recently produced and released <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_in_the_High_Castle">The Man in the High Castle</a>, a <a href="http://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the-man-in-the-high-castle/s01/">television</a> adaptation of a 1963 dystopian alternative history novel by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Man_in_the_High_Castle">Philip K Dick</a>. Both the novel and the series are based on a very simple idea: President Franklin Roosevelt is assassinated in 1933 and never led America out of the Great Depression and to victory against the Axis powers in World War Two. In fact, Germany and Japan end up colonising the US, aptly renamed the Greater Nazi Reich and Japanese Pacific States.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110109/original/image-20160203-5853-1usknz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110109/original/image-20160203-5853-1usknz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110109/original/image-20160203-5853-1usknz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110109/original/image-20160203-5853-1usknz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=380&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110109/original/image-20160203-5853-1usknz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110109/original/image-20160203-5853-1usknz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110109/original/image-20160203-5853-1usknz2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=478&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Man High Castle TV Series map.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikimedia Commons</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We don’t have to go that far, and it is arguable how much leverage leaders can exert in contemporary politics (probably much less than the common people believe), but let’s ponder for a second or two what 'this life of ours’ may have been like if at the end of the heavily contested <a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/31/politics/bush-gore-2000-election-results-studies/">US presidential election in 2000</a>, the hanging chads had fallen and Florida had gone to the rightful winner. Might we now live in a world with fewer wars? Might the situation in the Middle-East be different? Might millions of refugees still have a home to live in? Perhaps Al Gore’s presidency would have been more diplomatic, or perhaps not. We will never know. George W. Bush became President and the rest is all (alas, not alternative) history. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110103/original/image-20160203-5834-rbd059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110103/original/image-20160203-5834-rbd059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110103/original/image-20160203-5834-rbd059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110103/original/image-20160203-5834-rbd059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=465&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110103/original/image-20160203-5834-rbd059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110103/original/image-20160203-5834-rbd059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110103/original/image-20160203-5834-rbd059.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An American soldier on a dismounted presence patrol in Iraq in 2007.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The U.S. Army/flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When I think of Florida I remember the somewhat outrageous proposal an esteemed colleague of mine at the University of Sydney made when speaking to some students about the US elections. He argued that everyone in this world should have the right to choose the next American president. One person, one vote. Universal suffrage - globally, not just for Americans. What would the turn out be? 3 Billion? 4? How long would the election last? And what would be the result? It’s hard to say.</p>
<p>For some students, especially those from the US, the idea sounded sacrilegious, but in my opinion it was certainly not without merit. My colleague had hit the proverbial nail on the head: though we apparently still live in a world of relatively fixed boundaries, where passports and visa permits have great value; a world where politicians who compare Muslims praying in the street to the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/8197895/Marine-Le-Pen-Muslims-in-France-like-Nazi-occupation.html">Nazi</a> occupation of France, use the war-rhetoric of <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/12/ted_cruz_s_latest_anti_muslim_rhetoric_is_beyond_shameful.html">‘us’ versus ‘them’</a>, propose forced ‘<a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2015/11/11/politics/donald-trump-deportation-force-debate-immigration/">deportation</a>’ to remove illegal immigrants and promise to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0GMcYD2Oz8">build walls</a> to keep them out have very good chances of winning elections, when we delve into the issue, we find that such discussions are counter-intuitive anachronistic remnants of an age gone by.</p>
<p>The likes of Trump, Cruz or <a href="https://theconversation.com/marine-le-pen-has-a-new-right-wing-group-in-europe-should-we-be-worried-43983">Marine Le Pen</a> in France or <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-11443211">Geert Wilders</a> in The Netherlands might believe that their world can be closed off from anything they perceive to be 'dangerous’ or ‘alien’ to their core values, but the truth is quite the opposite. We live in a world of permeable boundaries. This permeability applies to physical borders as much as to economic, cultural and communication spheres.</p>
<p>Today, in our different continents and different countries, lives are shaped by increasingly networked politics at micro, meso and macro level. What we do, where we go, what we wear, what we drive, which websites we visit, which Facebook pages we like and indeed the name we cross on the ballot can all have long-term repercussions on the quality of life of others, others who are unknown to us and yet influenced by our choices.</p>
<p>Think of the issue of climate change: the policies that <a href="http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/who-are-the-worlds-biggest-polluters?articleId=USRTXRKSI">China, America and even Australia</a> choose to follow matter <a href="https://theconversation.com/anthropocene-raises-risks-of-earth-without-democracy-and-without-us-38911">to the lives of many others</a> outside of their heavily guarded territorial borders. Such choices of a few go on to shape our collective futures.</p>
<h2><strong>Keeping a vigilant eye</strong></h2>
<p>The Iowa caucus and my colleague’s idea about a global suffrage for the American presidential race remind us that elections are hardly ever empty signifiers of an apathetic society. The whole spectacle and the ritual of going to the poll and casting a vote is, in itself, always a great reminder of what it means to be political – of who decides who gets what, when and how.</p>
<p>Elections are important. Surprisingly, against the cynical view that they have no value, elections mean something to a lot of people, especially in times of crisis. The spectacle of the ‘<a href="https://theconversation.com/humility-tsai-ing-wen-on-the-cardinal-democratic-virtue-53357">jubilant throng of tens of thousands of citizens</a>’ welcoming Tsai Ing-wen outside her headquarters in Taipei few weeks ago, after becoming Taiwan’s first woman president, is just the most recent example of the powerful wide-ranging appeal of elections. When they work well people feel truly empowered and the world of politics no longer seems so rotten. Nonetheless, elections are double-edge swords because they have the potential to afford power to the wrong people. The memory of the long term consequences of the <a href="http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/jan-30-1933-the-story-behind-hitler-s-rise-to-power-a-532032.html">German general elections of 1933</a> is not yet so lost in time to have been forgotten. But it is not only about the past, populism of the worst kind is once again <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/27/world/europe/established-parties-rocked-by-anti-europe-vote.html">on the rise</a>, not only in America. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump have plenty of clones elsewhere. The fear of losing the next electoral contest is pushing some European governments toward harsh and rather questionable policies. Countries such as Sweden, Denmark or Holland, usually making headlines for topping the list of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/11/04/these-countries-have-the-best-quality-of-life_n_8470292.html">best-quality-of-life indexes</a>, have recently come under fire for trying to win what <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/opinion/denmarks-cruelty-toward-refugees.html">the New York Times</a> called 'a race to the bottom among European countries to see who can be the least welcoming to asylum seekers’. </p>
<p>Under constant pressure from national far-right movements on how to deal with the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911">refugee crisis</a>, the government of Sweden plans to <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/28/sweden-to-expel-up-to-80000-rejected-asylum-seekers">expel more than 80.000 refugees</a>; Denmark instead just passed <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/01/denmark-refugees-immigration-law/431520/">a new bill</a> to seize money from refugees to pay for subsistence’s costs; the Conservative government of the Netherlands, as part of a <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/netherlands/12022802/Refugees-told-to-be-good-neighbours-and-speak-Dutch-if-they-want-to-stay-in-Netherlands.html">new tougher approach on immigration</a>, plans to force all asylum seekers ‘to sign a declaration saying they will uphold Dutch values (for instance by being a good neighbour and learning to speak Dutch) or be fined up to €1250 and have their residency revoked’.</p>
<p>The Iowa caucus’ results, Ted Cruz or Donald Trump’s radical policies on immigration or the European governments’ growing inability to deal humanely with the refugee crisis remind us of a simple fact: those we elect can either repress us or reinvigorate the public sphere by giving us hope; they can help make this world a better place. They help us change direction. But the wrong choice can make this world hell for a lot of innocent people. </p>
<p>These are bleak times for those who dare to dream a better world, one without differences, hunger or hatred. So perhaps it is time to start keeping a vigilant eye at what goes on elsewhere, even if it is a mildly insignificant caucus on the other side of the globe in a country that is not mine for an election in which, though I cannot vote, I can still take stand for or against. It is time, for each and every one of us, to get out of our cocoon and fully embrace our role as networked citizens of a networked world.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54112/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
This article is part of the Democracy Futures series, a joint global initiative with the Sydney Democracy Network. The project aims to stimulate fresh thinking about the many challenges facing democracies…Giovanni Navarria, Postdoctoral Fellow, Sydney Democracy Network, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/538612016-02-02T17:18:38Z2016-02-02T17:18:38ZWhat betting markets are saying about the US election after Iowa caucus results<p>Heading into the Iowa caucuses, all the main forecasting methodologies ranked Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton as favourites to win the first contests in their respective nomination battles. In the end, they were half right, <a href="https://theconversation.com/us-election-what-do-the-iowa-results-actually-mean-53574">if only just</a>): while Clinton managed to squeak the narrowest of wins over Bernie Sanders, Trump came second behind Ted Cruz of Texas, with Florida’s Marco Rubio nipping at his heels.</p>
<p>The results were written up with varying degrees of surprise and shock. So who did the best job of predicting them?</p>
<p>Of the opinion polls, the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics survey is generally regarded as the gold standard in terms of the Iowa state caucuses. In its <a href="http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/30/donald-trump-reclaims-lead-latest-iowa-poll/79562322/">last survey before voting began</a>, it had Trump on the Republican side leading Ted Cruz by 28% to 23%, with Marco Rubio on 15%. For the Democrats, Clinton was leading Sanders by 45% to 42%. This survey proved wide of the mark and, in that regard, it was broadly consistent with other recent polling.</p>
<p>Then there’s the panel-of-experts model. One such group is the <a href="http://www.politico.com/caucus">Politico Caucus</a>, a panel of strategists, operatives and activists. In its final survey, Republicans were split, but put Donald Trump in pole position, with Cruz second and Rubio third. Democratic insiders were less divided, coming out strongly in favour of a decisive Clinton victory. So, also wrong.</p>
<p>But there’s another way of forecasting that often proves to be much closer to the actual result: the betting and prediction markets. These can be observed in real time through the <a href="http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics">Oddschecker</a> service (which lists a range of leading bookmaker prices) as well as by observing the prices on the person-to-person betting exchanges. </p>
<p>There are also dedicated “crowd wisdom” prediction markets such as <a href="https://twitter.com/almaniscrowd?lang=en-gb">Almanis</a>, “wisdom of crowd” projects such as <a href="http://predictwise.com/">Predictwise</a>, as well as real-money prediction markets such as <a href="https://www.predictit.org/">PredictIt</a> and the <a href="http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/">Iowa Electronic Markets</a>.</p>
<p>On the eve of the caucuses, the real-money betting and prediction markets gave Clinton about a two-in-three chance of winning Iowa, and Trump just a little less. Rubio, it seemed, was trailing third by a fair margin. In the event, it was Cruz who surged to victory among the Republicans while Rubio’s third-place showing was unexpectedly strong. The Democratic race was labelled pretty much across the board as too close to call for most of the count, but the betting markets sided consistently with Clinton.</p>
<p>As soon as the actual results are declared, the betting markets adjust to incorporate the new information. So far they’ve already shaken up their thinking about who will become the Republican party’s nominee, but have barely flickered in regard to the Democratic choice. </p>
<h2>Odds on</h2>
<p>Going into the caucuses, of the main candidates the betting markets gave Trump a 50% chance of winning the Republican nomination, followed by Rubio on 32%, Cruz on 9% and Jeb Bush on 8%. The commensurate predictions for the Democratic nomination were 80% for Clinton and 19% for Sanders.</p>
<p>In terms of winning the White House, Clinton was firm favourite, with a 51% chance of winning the general election, followed by Trump on 19%, Rubio on 15%, Sanders on 6%, Cruz on 4% and Bush on 3%.</p>
<p>As Americans woke up after the count that map had changed significantly, at least on the Republican side. The new favourite to win the Republican nomination on the betting markets is Rubio, who emerged from the polling with a 53% chance of being the eventual nominee, followed by Trump on 26%, Cruz on 14% and Bush on 5%. </p>
<p>Despite the narrowness of the Democratic contest, the betting markets were unfazed, with Clinton clinging to her 80% chance of taking the nomination.</p>
<p>As to the map of probabilities for who will eventually win the White House, the markets still rank Clinton as the firm favourite for the presidency, just as strong as before Iowa, and Rubio is now her closest challenger: the markets now rate his chances of progressing all the way to victory in November at more than one in five, up from 15%. Trump’s chance has slipped to about one in ten, down from 19%.</p>
<p>So the news of the night is that nothing has really changed on the Democratic front, while Rubio has leapfrogged Trump as the most likely challenger to Clinton. Next comes the New Hampshire primary – and the outcome of that might turn out to be much more significant.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53861/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Leighton Vaughan Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above. He tweets at @LeightonVW. </span></em></p>Instead of fixating on polling and pundits, you might as well go straight to the bookies.Leighton Vaughan Williams, Professor of Economics and Finance and Director, Betting Research Unit & Political Forecasting Unit, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/540242016-02-02T17:04:50Z2016-02-02T17:04:50ZIowa caucus: scholars around the globe react<h2>U.K.: A race wide open</h2>
<p><strong>Inderjeet Parmar, City University London</strong></p>
<p>The headline here in London is that even in third place, Marco Rubio has truly made his mark; while Donald Trump came in second, he simply failed to win big as he predicted. In terms of <a href="http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/iowa">delegates</a> to the nominating convention, Ted Cruz is to be allotted eight while Rubio and Trump each receive seven – a tiny proportion of the overall total. So the race for the Republican nomination remains wide open.</p>
<p>On the Democratic side, Clinton appears to have eked out only the narrowest of margins over “democratic socialist” Bernie Sanders. She may perhaps breathe a sigh of relief given that Sanders is widely favored to win the New Hampshire primary: her nightmare of beginning with two losses in a row has not materialized.</p>
<p>The U.K. is also taking note that antiestablishment feeling in the U.S. is running every bit as high as anticipated. Cruz railed against the media and Washington establishment in <a href="http://bcove.me/pic9o7fw">his victory speech</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/2/2/10892752/bernie-sanders-iowa-speech">Sanders</a> put it this way: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Given the enormous crises facing our country, it is just too late for establishment politics and establishment economics.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But Iowa’s importance should not be overestimated. It’s only had pride of place since 1972, when the Democrats chose it as the place to begin their primary season. In 1976, the state passed a law to ensure that it would always be the first state to vote in the primaries. That year, <a href="http://millercenter.org/president/biography/carter-campaigns-and-elections">Jimmy Carter won</a> the caucuses, the nomination and the White House – and so the myth was born.</p>
<p>A myth it remains. Since 1972, Iowa has chosen eight candidates who went on to be their party’s presidential nominee (five Democrats and three Republicans), but only three presidents won seriously contested caucuses there: Carter, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama.</p>
<h2>Australia: Rubio takes some key counties</h2>
<p><strong>Bryan Cranston, Swinburne University</strong></p>
<p>Iowa is leading the news in Australia. Although Cruz won, the result is being billed here as a <a href="http://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/its-dday-for-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-in-iowa/news-story/150ca46ce2e2a5af6d01c645d625dbd3">“Massive blow to Trump”</a>, <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-presidential-election-how-ted-cruz-won-iowa-20160202-gmjo01.html">“Trumped: Cruz wins Iowa”</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-02/iowa-caucuses-trump-white-house-campaign-faces-first-test/7132486">“Blood in the water for Trump”</a>.</p>
<p>Florida Senator Marco Rubio is receiving positive press – his third placing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-02/iowa-caucuses-trump-white-house-campaign-faces-first-test/7132486">“making him easily the leader among establishment candidates”</a>. But it must be said that the mainstream candidates – <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/feb/01/john-kasich-republican-endorsement-new-hampshire">John Kasich</a>, <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/02/01/bush-calls-for-campaign-reset-primary/wxKQ3JBOExVF6yvh3g6ygI/story.html">Jeb Bush</a> and <a href="http://www.northjersey.com/news/as-iowa-caucuses-begin-christie-turns-focus-to-new-hampshire-1.1503653">Chris Christie</a> – all but ignored Iowa in order to focus on next week’s New Hampshire primary.</p>
<p>Although the Democrats also held their caucus today, the focus in Australia is on Cruz and Trump, with only passing acknowledgment of Clinton’s narrow win over Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side.</p>
<p>In Australia, the biggest losers from Iowa appear to be Ben Carson, Rand Paul and Rick Santorum, whose poor showings have led them to quell talk of their withdrawal from the race. Santorum, the winner in 2012, received just one percent of the vote this time around. </p>
<p>Oh, and Jim Gilmore. The former Virginia governor finished last with just 12 votes across the entire state.</p>
<p>Does any of this really matter now? <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-us-presidential-primary-season-begins-does-iowa-really-matter-52380">Not really</a>. But a closer examination of the results does something rather interesting. Scott County, perhaps Iowa’s most evangelically conservative county, <a href="http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/iowa">supported Rubio</a>, ahead of Trump and Cruz. This may indicate that Rubio is about to become the standard-bearer for religious conservatives, despite Cruz’s targeted outreach to the party’s religious base. </p>
<p>And in Polk – Iowa’s most populous county – Clinton was a clear winner, and Rubio again beat Cruz.</p>
<p>Despite Cruz garnering the press for winning the Iowa caucus, the real story of the day could well be Rubio.</p>
<h2>U.S.: What’s so surprising about Iowa?</h2>
<p><strong>Andra Gillespie, Emory University</strong></p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/headlines/20160201-across-iowa-surprises-changes-of-heart-were-part-of-the-process.ece">narrative of surprise</a> dominates the post-Iowa headlines in the U.S.</p>
<p>Pundits expressed surprise that Cruz won and Donald Trump lost, that Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are essentially tied, and that Marco Rubio came in third place. </p>
<p>However, only the margins are truly surprising. In many ways, yesterday’s results affirm conventional wisdom. </p>
<p>There is no denying that Donald Trump is a force of nature. He has demonstrated a knack for earning free media and for drawing attention towards him and away from his competitors. But the lesson of Iowa is that old fashioned field organization still matters more.</p>
<p>Over the years, Iowans have come to expect presidential candidates – or volunteers representing them – to make personal appeals to voters. Convention holds that the candidates with the best field operations have the greatest likelihood of victory. </p>
<p>Cruz had an organized and publicized field operation in Iowa. That field operation was part of the reason pundits generally thought that Cruz was a contender in Iowa, and it should not have come as a surprise that his ground game helped him win in the end. </p>
<p>Second, we have to come to grips with how we use polls in the U.S. There has been a lot of hand wringing about the accuracy and overuse of polls generally and in this election cycle particularly. Donald Trump has rationalized every <a href="https://theconversation.com/scholars-trumps-call-to-ban-muslims-is-un-american-52065">inflammatory statement</a> he has made by pointing to his lead in the polls. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/dear-media-here-are-some-tips-for-covering-donald-trump-and-the-gop-campaign-52241">media justify</a> their wall-to-wall coverage of Trump based on polling results. </p>
<p>I hope Iowa teaches us how to interpret polls correctly and understand their limitations. </p>
<p>There is a tendency in the media to not consider the full confidence interval when determining whether a race is tied or has a clear leader. Often, those polls had margins of error between 3.5 and 7 points. That means the leading candidate would have to be ahead by a margin of between 7 and 14 percentage points for the race to not be considered statistically tied.</p>
<p>Of the seven most recent Iowa Republican primary polls archived by <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2016/">Real Clear Politics</a>, five showed Trump’s lead was within the true margin of error. This suggested that Cruz had the potential to win, so why the big surprise? </p>
<p>The same goes for the Democratic caucus results. All but two of those recent polls depicted the gap between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders as being within the margin of error.</p>
<p>News consumers should be more discerning about what polls tell us. Margins of error exist for a reason; we cannot expect to make perfect predictions about final vote tallies, especially with small sample sizes. Above all, we should understand that polls reflect the attitudes of the time in which they were taken.</p>
<p>People can, and often do, change their minds. There’s nothing surprising about that.</p>
<h2>France: Identity has become a major bias</h2>
<p><strong>Marie-Cécile Naves, Audencia Nantes)</strong></p>
<p>In France, we see Cruz’s victory in the Iowa caucuses as an expression of American conservatism. He represents an evangelist, patriarchal, white conception of the U.S. </p>
<p>Perhaps more than ever, identity has become a major focus of the contemporary GOP. Many Republicans seem reluctant to acknowledge inevitable demographic, ethnic and religious change. The question for November becomes: How can Cruz convince minorities and women to vote for him, especially when Hillary Clinton (and Bernie Sanders, though to a lesser extent) has deliberately chosen to talk about racial discrimination and racism?</p>
<p>Marco Rubio is last night’s other winner. Now that Jeb Bush seems to be totally out of the running, Rubio is the mainstream candidate the Republican party is bound to support. His positions on immigration and education, notably, will appeal to fiscal conservatives. During 2014 midterm election, the Republican establishment succeeded in neutralizing radical – especially Tea Party – candidates, which paved the way for a victory in the Senate. During this election cycle, while they are likely to get rid of Trump, Cruz may be a big problem for them.</p>
<p>As for the Democrats, Clinton remains the favorite despite her tight victory in Iowa. During the caucuses, Sanders benefited from a national wave of popularity, notably from the youth and people who are done with politicians from the establishment. Going forward, the race will become more difficult for him as Clinton tailors her proposals to draw in young voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54024/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andra Gillespie has received funding support from NSF and the Ford Foundation. She also directs an institute that is funded by the Mellon Foundation. She also worked for Democratic pollster Mark Mellman in 2004, when he served as John Kerry's pollster.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bryan Cranston, Inderjeet Parmar, and Marie-Cécile Naves do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Our global newsroom responds to the first results in the US presidential election. We hear from scholars in the UK, US, Australia and France.Andra Gillespie, Associate Professor, Political Science , Emory UniversityBryan Cranston, PhD Candidate in Politics and History, Swinburne University of TechnologyInderjeet Parmar, Professor in International Politics, City, University of LondonMarie-Cécile Naves, Chargée de cours à Audencia Business School (Management du sport, sport et RSE), AudenciaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/535742016-02-02T10:19:37Z2016-02-02T10:19:37ZUS election: what do the Iowa results actually mean?<p>The first US state to vote for the parties’ presidential nominees has spoken, and the <a href="http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/iowa">results</a> have shaken up an already chaotic race. </p>
<p>The Iowa caucuses delivered a blow to Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, who came in second behind firebrand conservative senator Ted Cruz. Florida senator Marco Rubio has shaken up that race, though, by finishing a strong third. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, establishment favourite Hillary Clinton found herself less than 1% ahead of insurgent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.</p>
<p>For politicians, pundits and supporters alike, the Iowa caucuses are a something of a Rorsharch test; everyone sees something slightly different, or at least pretends to. For a variety of reasons – wildly variable turnout, the sheer number of candidates, the proportion of voters undecided – Iowa has traditionally been <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowa-is-the-hardest-state-to-poll/">a very difficult state to poll</a>, and because the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-are-the-iowa-caucuses-53353">caucus process</a> is so complex and strange, the results are not necessarily as clear cut as they seem. But there are trends and historical precedents we can look to for guidance.</p>
<h2>Tied up?</h2>
<p>The Democratic result is arguably a major victory for Bernie Sanders. By managing to hold political titan Hillary Clinton to a near-tie, he can use this to help gather momentum for New Hampshire on February 9. </p>
<p>It is possible he could win there, but not seal the nomination. That could, though, damage Clinton. There is precedent for this: in 1972, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1996/03/27/us/edmund-s-muskie-81-dies-maine-senator-and-a-power-on-the-national-scene.html?pagewanted=all">Ed Muskie</a> won in both Iowa and New Hampshire but lost the nomination to exuberant leftist George McGovern, who unexpectedly came second in both primaries but didn’t actually win a primary until Wisconsin voted three months later. McGovern then lost the general election in a catastrophic landslide.</p>
<p>But in 1972, the Democrats were in disarray, having been out of power for four years, and a plethora of candidates were running; now there are two, both running to follow a successful two-term presidency. And while 1972’s top candidates had broadly similar resources, Clinton still has a huge advantage in terms of money and endorsements. </p>
<p>Sanders’s future beyond the early states is the big unknown. He has a slight local advantage in New Hampshire and Vermont – these are both small and very white states with long traditions of leftist progressivism. It remains to be seen whether he can carry his appeal in places with more varied demographics. </p>
<p>But regardless of whether he can win or not, the pundits have an interest in talking him up as if he can, since a two-horse race is much more ratings-friendly then the virtual Clinton coronation some were predicting <a href="https://theconversation.com/clinton-parries-biden-benghazi-and-bernie-sanders-to-reclaim-pole-position-49527">just months ago</a>.</p>
<h2>Three-way brawl</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, the closeness of the Republican race (and the fact that its delegates are <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/things-delegates-stake-iowa-caucuses-36634904">awarded proportionally</a>) mean that all three of the leading candidates can claim some kind of victory. </p>
<p>Cruz, Trump and Rubio are all busy presenting themselves as victors – Cruz on the basis that he actually won, Trump on the basis that he did well for a non-politician, and Rubio on the basis that he far exceeded expectations. These are all valid arguments, but also help illustrate the problems they face moving forwards. </p>
<p>Cruz won in part through his appeal to hardcore right-wingers and evangelicals, support bases he can’t rely on in every state – and certainly not in the general election. Trump’s second place finish, meanwhile, says a lot about how political perceptions can change in only a few months. </p>
<p>Until the late summer of 2015, few people thought Trump <a href="http://nypost.com/2015/05/30/stop-pretending-donald-trump-is-not-running-for-president/">genuinely intended to run at all</a>, so this result would have been shocking in the extreme. But because Trump has made an issue of the poll numbers, quoting the margin of his lead whenever possible, any result other than winning automatically makes him seem like a loser (a tag he’s been willing to apply to everybody else at the drop of a hat). </p>
<p>Cruz and Rubio both demonstrated to Trump that brand recognition and a bombastic media style are not necessarily enough to succeed, and having a good political organisation still matters. On that score, Trump is still much weaker than the other candidates in the upcoming states.</p>
<p>If momentum is the way we judge success, then <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2016/02/01/after-iowa-keep-your-eye-on-marco-rubio-not-trump-or-cruz.html">Rubio had a very good night</a>. That he enjoyed this sudden surge late in the day will give hope to the Republican establishment that both Trump and Cruz can be stopped. </p>
<p>If either of them gets the nomination (or even gets too close), more moderate Republican candidates standing in other contests could end up tarred with their extremism, making it harder for the party to win crucial seats in the House and Senate. And that’s just this year: the white-hot rhetoric about immigration, crime, Muslims and so on may already have <a href="https://theconversation.com/whether-or-not-trump-wins-the-republican-party-may-never-recover-53151">poisoned the Republican brand</a> for years to come.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Mokhefi-Ashton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When it comes to Iowa, separating reality from rhetoric is all but impossible.Matthew Mokhefi-Ashton, Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.