tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/italian-referendum-33962/articlesItalian referendum – The Conversation2016-12-06T01:22:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/698982016-12-06T01:22:55Z2016-12-06T01:22:55ZWhat’s next for Italy?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148590/original/image-20161205-19388-1yr2r7i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Italians voted "No" by a convincing margin in the referendum on constitutional change.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>A referendum is not (and should not be comparable to) a general election; they are two different kinds of electoral instruments. The former asks the people to express their opinion on one or more issues (usually by means of a yes or no option). The latter instead allows them to choose which leader or political party should govern the country. </p>
<p>Yet the line between the two is often blurred. Especially when the people are asked to vote on particularly controversial issues, and after a hard-fought campaign, it is not uncommon for the outcome of a referendum to be interpreted as a de facto vote of confidence for or against the incumbent government. It happened last June with Brexit in the UK, and it has happened now in Italy.</p>
<p>On Sunday, over 19 million Italians, about 59% of the voters, rejected <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-italys-referendum-trigger-the-next-crisis-69849">a controversial package</a> of constitutional reforms supported by the incumbent government. The “Yes” camp did much worse than expected, barely breaking over 40%. It received 7 million fewer votes than the “No” supporters.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148591/original/image-20161205-19407-1bf6ile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148591/original/image-20161205-19407-1bf6ile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=625&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148591/original/image-20161205-19407-1bf6ile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=625&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148591/original/image-20161205-19407-1bf6ile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=625&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148591/original/image-20161205-19407-1bf6ile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148591/original/image-20161205-19407-1bf6ile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148591/original/image-20161205-19407-1bf6ile.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Map of Italy: Green (Yes victory) Dark (No victory); Orange (even)</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Web</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The turnout was over 65%, 10 points down on the 2013 general election, but more than enough to make the vote legitimate.</p>
<p>The people have spoken, loud and clear. So must the government resign?</p>
<p>For Prime Minister Matteo Renzi the answer to the question seemed clear. As promised, soon after the outcome of the referendum was announced, he resigned. Standing before the press, “with a lump in his throat” because, as he admitted, “we are not robots”, he took full responsibility for the unequivocal defeat.</p>
<p>Renzi’s strategic mistake, his insistence during the whole campaign on making the result personal, has effectively reduced the possibility of the current government staying on to almost nil.</p>
<p>The crisis is officially open. What comes now is difficult to say.</p>
<h2>Three scenarios</h2>
<p>There are three possible scenarios, all involving Italian President Sergio Mattarella. The constitution grants him the power to do one of the following: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>ask Renzi to stay on, with a new mandate;</p></li>
<li><p>appoint a new prime minister who needs then to secure a majority in the parliament to carry on until the current term ends (January 2018);</p></li>
<li><p>dissolve the parliament and call for a general election (to be held in a few months, most likely between February and April).</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The most unlikely scenario is a second mandate for Renzi. Though he has now agreed to stay on a little longer until the new budget is approved, his resignation is final. It would make little sense for him to carry on without a full electoral mandate. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148592/original/image-20161205-19362-1hefi93.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148592/original/image-20161205-19362-1hefi93.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=695&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148592/original/image-20161205-19362-1hefi93.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=695&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148592/original/image-20161205-19362-1hefi93.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=695&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148592/original/image-20161205-19362-1hefi93.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=874&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148592/original/image-20161205-19362-1hefi93.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=874&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148592/original/image-20161205-19362-1hefi93.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=874&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Sergio Mattarella.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wikipedia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The second scenario, however, as I hinted in <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-italys-referendum-trigger-the-next-crisis-69849">my last article</a>, would not surprise anyone. The only problem might be to agree on the choice of the new prime minister. At the moment, there seems to be no one with enough credibility and bipartisan support to be able to govern for the next 16 months, let alone pass some much-needed reforms.</p>
<p>Someone from the existing coalition might be the easiest choice (though not the most popular). Among the favourites are Pier Carlo Padoan (the incumbent minister for economy), Graziano Delrio (minister for infrastructure), Piero Grasso (Senate president), or even Laura Boldrini (president of the Chamber of Deputies) – though it is unlikely, the moment might be right for Italy’s first woman prime minister.</p>
<p>The third scenario is for Mattarella to call the election, one year ahead of time. But facing an election with the current electoral law is a gamble not many in the parliament would want to take. Though the current parliament approved the new law in 2015, it was mostly the product of Renzi’s government and many MPs still think it needs to be amended or, worse, replaced with a brand new one. Or the existing law might be the harbinger of disaster at the next election.</p>
<h2>Who will win the next election?</h2>
<p>Before the referendum result, voting intention polls showed the Five Star Movement and Renzi’s Democratic Party locked in a virtual tie, more or less, at 30%. While, the centre-right coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi lagged few percentage points behind. Some polls indicated the Five Star as favourite, others the Democratic Party.</p>
<p>In any case, none of the existing forces seems strong enough to reach the 40% threshold needed to win under the new electoral law. This means the two parties with the most votes will face off in a second round. Second rounds are never easy to predict; the results often depend on how the supporters of the excluded parties vote. And with the new law the winner takes it all.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148594/original/image-20161205-19399-1f360uw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148594/original/image-20161205-19399-1f360uw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148594/original/image-20161205-19399-1f360uw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148594/original/image-20161205-19399-1f360uw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148594/original/image-20161205-19399-1f360uw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148594/original/image-20161205-19399-1f360uw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148594/original/image-20161205-19399-1f360uw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=454&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Beppe Grillo wants you.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the moment, many in the establishment fear that the populist appeal of the Five Star Movement makes it the most likely winner. Since it <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-at-italy-1992-internet-politics-comes-of-age-67521">reached 25% at the last general election</a>, the movement’s electoral results (and the polls) have been rather consistent. Last May <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-brexit-keep-a-close-watch-on-italy-and-its-five-star-movement-61589">it captured two major cities</a>, Rome and Turin (along with 17 others).</p>
<p>With Renzi’s aura fading, the Democratic Party is potentially without a winning leader and might need some time to recover. Should Renzi remain as party leader or should the party find someone else? It is not an easy choice to make right before an election. Change will send the wrong signal to the electorate: the party is in disarray.</p>
<p>On the other hand, to stay with Renzi will mean the party doesn’t listen. Either way, going to the ballot next February with the current law and in the current climate might mean a political debacle for the party, which attracted 40% of the vote at the last European elections only two years ago.</p>
<p>The centre-right is not in better shape. Elections will certainly represent a gamble for Berlusconi and his Forza Italia party, not long ago <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-at-italy-1992-the-rise-and-fall-of-king-midas-66740">the leading force in the country</a>.</p>
<p>Despite unceremoniously stepping down from government in 2011 and then being <a href="https://theconversation.com/enough-of-the-failed-fable-of-the-martyr-silvio-berlusconi-20885">barred from running for office by law in 2012</a>, Berlusconi is still very much an active and influential player in Italian politics. However, his many troubles with the law, his failing health and his age (he recently turned 80) have all taken a toll on his charismatic leadership.</p>
<p>The controversial entrepreneur’s political demise has sent the shaky remains of its past coalition into a frenzy (especially now, after Renzi’s resignation and the possibility of a new election in the air). Leadership is up for grabs, but it is far from clear who the chosen one will be.</p>
<p>The new leader could be a woman, but will most likely be a man. After more than two decades of <em>Berlusconismo</em> (with its unapologetic defence of male chauvinism), it is unlikely that the centre-right is ready to respect a woman enough to appoint her as a leader – unless of course the woman is very close to Berlusconi.</p>
<p>For a very short time this year, Berlusconi’s eldest daughter, Marina, seemed poised to take the reins of Forza Italia. Still, the idea never really took root. Marina Berlusconi seems much more at ease with running the family’s large business empire than following her father’s political endeavour.</p>
<p>On the other hand, within Forza Italia’s ranks (let alone within its wider, wobbly coalition), there seems to be no viable successor to the flamboyant leader with the winning smile who defined Italian politics for so long. The situation, however, is no longer as static as it might have appeared a few months ago.</p>
<p>Matteo Salvini, the provocative leader of the right-wing Northern League and one of the strongest advocates for new elections after Renzi’s resignation, has recently <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-vote-idUSKBN1370JR">put forward his candidacy</a>. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148593/original/image-20161205-19401-1gq1u1q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148593/original/image-20161205-19401-1gq1u1q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148593/original/image-20161205-19401-1gq1u1q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148593/original/image-20161205-19401-1gq1u1q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=359&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148593/original/image-20161205-19401-1gq1u1q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148593/original/image-20161205-19401-1gq1u1q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148593/original/image-20161205-19401-1gq1u1q.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Matteo Salvini and his campaign to leave the euro.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
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</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2016/11/09/salvini-hails-trump-election-as-revenge-of-the-people-3_e5b17b7b-819f-481c-808c-92fe742baa81.html">Inspired by Donald Trump’s victory</a> in the United States and a fervent admirer of Marine Le Pen in France, Salvini thinks Italy is ready to finally shift decidedly towards the right and elect a leader with strong (some would say extreme) views on immigration, the European Union and the economy. However, with the Northern League polling at just over 12%, Salvini will need the full support of the centre-right if he wants to have any chance to become Italy’s next prime minister.</p>
<p>Though this is not an unthinkable scenario, it is unlikely. Stirred by the success of right-wing populists across Europe and the US, the centre-right might eventually decide to bet on a leader like Salvini. But this would be a complete change of direction, which might ultimately alienate the larger part of the centre-right electorate. The Catholic and middle-class voters will likely migrate towards the more moderate Democratic Party.</p>
<p>Salvini’s greatest strength is also his ultimate weakness: he is not Berlusconi. He is not charming. He doesn’t have a winning smile. He is not a great salesman. The media don’t love him as much as they loved Berlusconi. </p>
<p>And Salvini’s policies, especially on immigration, are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/26/donald-trump-gets-my-backing-says-italys-matteo-salvini">not unlike Trump’s</a>: they are truly borderline, if not wholly, racist. Italy’s permanence in the EU would certainly be <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-referendum-salvini-idUSKBN13Q4JA">at risk with someone like Salvini</a> at the helm.</p>
<p>Ironically, as I pointed out in my <a href="https://theconversation.com/will-italys-referendum-trigger-the-next-crisis-69849">previous article</a>, the ideal candidate for the centre-right would be another Matteo, as in Matteo Renzi. Unfortunately for Berlusconi and his coalition, Renzi has chosen the opposite side, the Democratic Party. </p>
<p>But as Renzi might soon resign from his party as well, perhaps Berlusconi will be wise to approach him. It might well be in the realm of fantasy politics, but Renzi might be willing to listen and become the leader of a strong and wider centre. After all, for over two years <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-at-italy-1992-a-country-stuck-in-the-centre-in-2016-68717">he has governed the country</a>, also thanks to Berlusconi and with some of the entrepreneur’s former allies.</p>
<h2>The unlikely prime minister</h2>
<p>Before anything is decided, however, President Mattarella must consult with all forces in parliament. At the end of the consultations, the result might be an election, a known name as prime minister, or a true surprise.</p>
<p>The surprising name pulled from the hat might be that of Luigi di Maio (Laura Boldrini’s deputy in the lower house). Di Maio is the most popular representative of the Five Star Movement (after its founder, Beppe Grillo).</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148595/original/image-20161205-19362-dqt5xl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/148595/original/image-20161205-19362-dqt5xl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148595/original/image-20161205-19362-dqt5xl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148595/original/image-20161205-19362-dqt5xl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148595/original/image-20161205-19362-dqt5xl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148595/original/image-20161205-19362-dqt5xl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/148595/original/image-20161205-19362-dqt5xl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=423&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Luigi Di Maio votes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Facebook</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The choice of Di Maio might be quite tempting for all parties involved. It would finally give the chance to the movement to govern, to pass some important reforms and, most importantly for the other parties, to avoid the spectre of elections for the time being. The Five Star Movement, in fact, along with the right-wing Northern League, is among the loudest voices calling for new elections.</p>
<p>Though the choice of Di Maio is not that unlikely, the possibility that he (or for that matter, anyone else from the movement) actually becomes prime minister is rather thin. This would be a risky proposition to accept without a true majority. As things stand at the moment, Grillo would most likely reject the offer. He would consider the compromise with the establishment a strategic mistake, as he did in 2013 when he turned down the offer from Pierluigi Bersani, then Democratic Party secretary, who was in desperate need of an ally to govern.</p>
<p>If a temporary solution cannot be found and an election is called, under the current electoral law, the election might lead to political bloodshed. In a climate of widespread discontent with the country’s political establishment, the new law and its proportional mechanism that gives the winner an automatic majority in parliament, most of the parties in the current government coalition might be erased from the electoral map. Though that might provide some sweet schadenfreude to many disgruntled voters, it might eventually cost Italy dearly. </p>
<p>The ultimate winners of the coming electoral melee are likely to be untested populist forces with a strong anti-European sentiment and some more questionable political ideas. When <a href="https://theconversation.com/looking-back-at-1992-italys-horrible-year-66739">something similar last happened</a>, Italy ended up with two decades of Berlusconi. The ride was far from fun and the bruises are still there for everyone to see.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69898/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
In a climate of widespread discontent with Italy’s political establishment, a new election might wipe out most of the parties in the current government coalition.Giovanni Navarria, Associate, Sydney Democracy Network, School of Social and Political Sciences (SSPS), University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/698532016-12-05T21:53:59Z2016-12-05T21:53:59ZAs Austria rejects the far-right and Italy votes No, Europe’s future hangs in the balance<p>In a dramatic day of voting that could have major implications for Europe’s economic and political future, citizens from Italy and Austria cast their ballots in two <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/dec/04/italian-referendum-and-austrian-presidential-election-live">closely-watched initiatives</a>. </p>
<p>The referendum on Italy’s constitution and the presidential election in Austria were <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-05/austria-and-italy-votes-a-barometer-for-populist/8091694">a barometer</a> of the strength and reach of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/01/the-ruthlessly-effective-rebranding-of-europes-new-far-right">populist insurgency</a> threatening to upend Europe’s established political order. </p>
<p>Voters in Austria <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/austrian-center-left-candidate-van-der-bellen-to-win-presidential-election-projections-show-1480870229">issued a decisive defeat</a> to its far-right candidate. Hours later, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/04/renzi-battle-survival-italians-go-polls-vote-seen-referendum/">Italian voters rejected constitutional reform</a> championed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, leading to his resignation. It also plunged the country into economic and political <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-no-vote-in-italys-referendum-triggers-economic-and-political-uncertainty-69883">uncertainty</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ila66XIcrSQ?wmode=transparent&start=4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Matteo Renzi, Italy’s Prime Minister, announces his resignation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With elections in France, the Netherlands, Germany, and now possibly Italy coming in 2017, the next 12 months are shaping up to be seminal for European politics and the future of the European Union.</p>
<h2>Austria rejects the far-right</h2>
<p>With the possibility of electing the first far-right head of state in Western Europe <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/austria-election-who-is-norbert-hofer-the-man-who-could-become-europes-first-far-right-leader-since-a7453646.html">since World War II</a>, Austria’s presidential contest garnered a <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/12/economist-explains-0">degree of suspense and international attention</a> otherwise out of proportion for what is largely a ceremonial office in a country of fewer than nine million people.</p>
<p>Those nine million people were given the choice between Norbert Hofer, the candidate of the far-right Freedom Party, and Alexander Van der Bellen, an independent former Green party leader. The contest was a rerun of an election in May in which Van der Bellen beat Hofer <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/results-of-austrian-presidential-vote-too-close-to-call/a-19276128">by 31,000 votes</a>, or less than one percent of ballots cast. </p>
<p>Two weeks after the election in May, Freedom Party leaders, citing a “massive number of irregularities and mistakes”, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2016/06/08/austrias-right-cites-irregularities-and-mistakes-in-election-results.html">appealed</a> the result to Austria’s Constitutional Court.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/01/austrian-presidential-election-result-overturned-and-must-be-held-again-hofer-van-der-bellen">July</a>, the Court upheld the appeal, annulled the result, and called for an entirely new election. The new vote was supposed to take place in October but <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-austria-election-postponed-20160912-snap-story.html">had to be postponed</a> after defective adhesive was discovered on some of the absentee ballots.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.thelocal.at/20160829/expert-predicts-far-right-to-win-austrian-presidential-election">Predictions</a> were that a Hofer victory would prove the latest example of the rise of European populist, anti-immigrant parties; Freedom Party leaders have warned against the “Islamisation” of Europe and of a coming “civil war” as a result of mass Muslim immigration. But <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/austrias-green-backed-van-der-bellen-wins-presidential-election/a-36635159">exit polls on Sunday</a> showed that Van der Bellen received 53.6% of the vote, a higher proportion than his total in May.</p>
<p>Still, the contest between Hofer and Van der Bellen represented a <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/mainstream-hopefuls-lag-as-austrians-vote-for-new-president-1461495458">stunning repudiation</a> of Austria’s mainstream political parties. The centre-left Social Democrats and centre-right Austrian People’s Party have dominated Austrian politics since World War II.</p>
<p>In the first round of presidential voting in April, the two parties finished fourth and fifth, respectively, demonstrating Austrian voters’ staunch <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/22/far-right-surge-in-austria-signals-end-of-centrist-politics-as-usual">opposition</a> to the country’s centrist political establishment.</p>
<p>Despite Hofer’s defeat, the Freedom Party remains a <a href="http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/07/25/austria-freedom-party-populism-lesson-far-right/">political force in Austria</a>. Opinion <a href="https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/288503/umfrage/sonntagsfrage-zur-nationalratswahl-in-oesterreich-nach-einzelnen-instituten/">polls</a> show that the party is on track to win the most votes in parliamentary elections, which must be held before the end of 2018. This raises the once unthinkable possibility that the party could even head the government one day.</p>
<h2>Italy says No to reform, and to Renzi</h2>
<p>On the other side of the Alps, Italians voted in a referendum on a series of constitutional reforms that would have brought major changes to the country’s <a href="http://archivio.corriere.it/Archivio/i-percorsi/come-si-scrive-costituzione-origini-carta-italiana-112016.shtml">68-year-old constitution</a>.</p>
<p>These would have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/30/italy-referendum-all-you-need-to-know-about-renzis-crunch-vote">included</a> a dramatic reduction in the power and size of the senate, affecting how laws are passed, and the power balance between the central government and the country’s 20 regions.</p>
<p>Proponents of the reforms said they would ease the country’s notorious <a href="https://euobserver.com/economic/119144">legislative and administrative gridlock</a> (Italy has had 63 governments in 70 years) and would facilitate structural reforms to reinvigorate Italy’s <a href="http://voxeu.org/article/italys-productivity-challenge">stagnating economy</a>. Renzi was so confident earlier this year that the measures would pass that he staked his political future on the outcome, promising to resign if the referendum failed.</p>
<p>This turned out to be a serious error. Some Italians used the referendum as a way to protest their perception that Renzi has failed to deliver on promises to turn around the <a href="http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-forecast-summary-italy-oecd-economic-outlook-november-2016.pdf">Italian economy</a>. The vote revealed the depth of disillusionment with the prime minister: the No camp <a href="http://www.euronews.com/2016/12/05/rome-reacts-to-the-vote-against-renzi-s-reforms">won with 60%</a> of the vote. </p>
<p>In Italy, the unemployment rate remains <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-30/italian-unemployment-unchanged-at-11-4-youth-jobless-down">above 11%</a>. And at around 36.4%, Italy has <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Unemployment_statistics">one of the highest</a> youth unemployment (under 25) rates in the EU. Italy’s per <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=IT">capita GDP</a> and <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD?locations=IT">per capita income</a> are lower today than they were ten years ago.</p>
<p>Opposition from other voters, even ones who acknowledge that Italy needs far-reaching reforms, centred around worries about the concentration of power in the executive.</p>
<p>The Economist, for example, in an <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21710816-country-needs-far-reaching-reforms-just-not-ones-offer-why-italy-should-vote-no">editorial</a> that argued that Italian voters should vote No, warned that the proposals would risk creating conditions ripe for “an elected strongman” by consolidating power in the national government.</p>
<p>With Renzi’s resignation, President Sergio Mattarella will now consult with the country’s various political parties <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/italian-president-now-has-make-crucial-decision-end-uncertainty-1594861">on how to move ahead</a>. Mattarella could announce the formation of a caretaker government, headed by an appointed technocrat, or he could call snap elections next year.</p>
<p>If elections are called, the populist Five Star Movement or the far-right Northern League could make electoral gains. The Five Star Movement <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/06/italians-beppe-grillo-five-star-movement">garnered a quarter</a> of the votes in Italy’s last parliamentary election in 2013, and won <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36569410">mayoral races</a> in Turin and Rome this year. Current polls show its <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12290-016-0412-8">popularity</a> reaches <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-5star-idUSKCN0ZM130">around 30%</a>, falling just behind Renzi’s Democratic Party.</p>
<p>The impact on Italy’s financial markets could be severe. Italy’s borrowing costs are almost certain to rise, which will make it harder for the government to service its debt, which is already <a href="http://www.italy24.ilsole24ore.com/art/markets/2016-05-30/assemblea-bankitalia-180208.php?uuid=ADRU9aS">133% of GDP</a>, the highest level in the EU after Greece.</p>
<p>The vote could also affect Italy’s banking system, which has been in a state of crisis for a decade. Major banks across Italy are full of bad loans and in desperate need of recapitalisation. Investors will be wary to step in at this moment of uncertainty. Italy’s third-biggest bank, <em>Monte dei Paschi di Siena</em>, is on the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/dec/05/monte-dei-paschi-shares-fall-italian-referendum-result">brink of insolvency</a>. Its collapse could trigger a banking crisis, which could lead to a financial crisis across the entire EU.</p>
<p>The next year will reveal the direction of Italy’s economic and political future, and whether its membership in the Eurozone becomes increasingly untenable. The short- and medium-term repercussions of the No vote are not yet clear, but any banking crisis could push Italy out of the Eurozone, which could in turn lead to the end of the single currency.</p>
<h2>The rise of the populists</h2>
<p>The Austrian and Italian votes revealed the strength of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as-italys-leader-exits-a-door-opens-for-anti-elite-populists/2016/12/05/9eb4a5d6-ba83-11e6-ae79-bec72d34f8c9_story.html?utm_term=.716aec529175">anti-elite and anti-establishment sentiment</a> across Europe. Despite Hofer’s defeat, he still garnered more than 45% of the vote, evidence that the stigma in Europe of openly supporting right-wing candidates and parties has eroded. </p>
<p>What were once fringe parties – the National Front in France, the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, the Five Star Movement in Italy, the Freedom Party in Austria, Alternative for Germany – are <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12290-015-0347-5">now powerful electoral forces</a>.</p>
<p>For decades, <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/293941/the-european-union-a-citizen-s-guide/">the EU political order</a> has been based on centrist governments, open borders and free trade. But the EU has witnessed a number of shocks and other disruptive political forces over the past two years, including an unprecedented number of migrant and refugee arrivals that <a href="https://theconversation.com/eus-refugee-relocation-plans-desperately-need-a-reality-check-42439">strained its commitment</a> to open internal borders, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/islamic-state-exploiting-europes-porous-borders-and-intelligence-failures-turnbull-56755">wave of terrorist attacks</a> particularly in Paris and Brussels, and the British vote in June to <a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-is-on-britain-votes-to-leave-the-eu-experts-respond-61576">exit the bloc</a>.</p>
<p>There are today credible fears that <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-is-populism-popular-a-psychologist-explains-61319">populism</a> from either the left or the right could dismantle some of the major accomplishments of European integration, including open internal borders and the single currency. </p>
<p>In Poland and Hungary, right-wing leaders with <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-hungary-and-poland-have-silenced-women-and-stifled-human-rights-66743">authoritarian leanings</a> are already in control of government; 2017 could see them joined by others whose commitment to political liberalism and constitutional limitations is lacking.</p>
<h2>Future threats to European order</h2>
<p>The French presidential election in May 2017 is thus crucial for the EU’s future. Former Prime Minister <a href="https://theconversation.com/french-election-2017-everything-you-need-to-know-about-francois-fillon-69576">François Fillon</a>, who will be the candidate of the centre-right, is likely to face off with Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, in the second round of voting. </p>
<p>A Le Pen victory remains a <a href="http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2016/11/27/97001-20161127FILWWW00211-fillon-battrait-le-pen-en-2017-sondage.php">remote possibility</a>, but this year’s electoral surprises — from the British vote to exit the EU and to Donald Trump’s victory in last month’s US presidential election — reveal the danger of discounting Le Pen’s chances entirely.</p>
<p>Despite lower migration this year <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/06/fewer-refugees-entering-europe-than-in-2015-but-asylum-backlog-still-growing/">compared to 2015</a>, Europe could yet face a renewed influx. Following <a href="https://theconversation.com/inside-europes-refugee-deal-with-turkey-is-it-legal-and-can-it-work-56054">a deal</a> with Turkey earlier this year, the flow of migrants and refugees travelling from Turkey into the EU <a href="http://www.migrationpolicy.org/news/paradox-eu-turkey-refugee-deal">drastically decreased</a>. But following a vote in the European Parliament <a href="http://fortune.com/2016/07/18/turkey-coup-death-penalty-eu-migrant/">to suspend talks with Turkey</a> over its potential membership of the EU, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan threatened to <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/25/erdogan-threatens-open-turkeys-borders-europe-protest-eu/">re-open the borders</a>.</p>
<p>If he reneges on the agreement, and Europe faces yet another refugee crisis of the same scale and magnitude as last year’s, Europe’s system of internal borders is unlikely to survive.</p>
<p>Finally, UK Prime Minister Theresa May <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/03/world/europe/brexit-talks-march-theresa-may-britain.html?_r=0">has said</a> that Britain plans to begin withdrawal negotiations by the end of March 2017. French President François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/uk-must-pay-price-for-brexit-says-francois-hollande">have called</a> on other EU governments to show a united front. And in a message to other EU countries that might be tempted to follow the UK’s exit, Hollande <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/08/world/europe/for-britains-brexit-bunch-the-party-just-ended.html">cautioned</a> they would not be able “to get the supposed advantages without the obligations” of membership.</p>
<p>A series of key decisions and events over the next year could shape the direction and future prospects of European integration in fundamental ways. What happens in 2017 could determine whether the EU is able to survive this current period of crisis in a weakened but still mostly intact state, or whether the European project of economic and political integration was just a moment, a phase in Europe’s long history.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69853/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Maher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Italian referendum and the Austrian vote are shaping up to be a seminal moment for European politics and the future of the European Union.Richard Maher, Research Fellow, Global Governance Programme, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University InstituteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/699192016-12-05T13:34:52Z2016-12-05T13:34:52ZItaly’s ‘no’ vote lights another fire under the European Union<p>How to interpret the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/04/matteo-renzis-future-in-the-balance-amid-high-turnout-in-italy-referendum">outcome</a> of the Italian referendum? Matteo Renzi’s government is clearly the loser – and the prime minister announced his widely expected resignation as soon as the result was in. </p>
<p>The proposed constitutional reform would have given much more power to Renzi by taking it away from the Italian Senate. It was part of a wider package of <a href="http://www.governo.it/approfondimento/1000-giorni-di-governo-renzi/6160">political reforms</a> pushed by his government which can be summed up as the idea that Italy needed to be “unlocked”. The constitutional changes were presented as consolidating this new trajectory, together with a new <a href="https://www.quora.com/Italy-What-is-the-Italicum">electoral law</a> designed to underpin the reformed constitution. The referendum confirmed that 59.1% of voters had other ideas. </p>
<p>Renzi’s government was initially wildly popular but lost support as it became clearer over nearly three years in power that the material conditions of large sections of the population were not progressing but stagnating or, in some cases, getting worse. </p>
<p>Constitutional matters in Italy have traditionally been kept separate from ordinary politics, but not on this occasion. Because the government drafted and submitted the reform proposals rather than the parliament, and Renzi <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/17/matteo-renzi-repeats-vow-quit-italian-pm-loses-referendum">said</a> that he would resign if he lost, it became a vote on the government’s policies – and of course its leader. </p>
<h2>Winners and losers</h2>
<p>For weeks, the prospect of a defeat for the government has been framed as another reaction against the establishment – hardly surprising in the context of <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president">Trump</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32810887">Brexit</a> and other populist movements toppling centrists around the world. </p>
<p>Such a reading might be supported by a quick look at some of the components behind the No campaign. The <a href="http://www.politico.eu/article/italys-other-matteo-salvini-northern-league-politicians-media-effettosalvini/">Northern League</a> and Beppe Grillo’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-italys-five-star-movement-69596">Five Star Movement</a> represent two rather different types of right-wing politics that are prone to frame their messages in a populist way – albeit Five Star is the only one that fully fits the anti-establishment archetype seen in other countries. Yet while the government was clearly the political subject behind the proposed constitutional reform, there was no overarching narrative behind the No campaign. </p>
<p>It was an aggregation of different political and social actors, from mainstream right-wing parties to trade unions and civil society associations. They did not form a coalition or attempt to coordinate their efforts, and for obvious reasons they represented very different parts of society. Revealingly, no new movement, political subject or leader emerged out of the contest. </p>
<p>You also need to look at the <a href="http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2016/referendum/costituzionale/mondo.html">distribution</a> of the vote. As in other countries, we can probably point to a disenfranchised group – though it’s less about class in Italy. We don’t have definitive data on how age affected the voting, but <a href="http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/media/I-giovani-e-il-Sud-hanno-bocciato-la-riforma-di-Renzi-la-prima-analisi-dei-risultati-del-referendum-0ebc5b75-8d09-4456-be52-7b52c954d41c.html#foto-2">surveys</a> ahead of the vote indicated that the over 65s were the only group backing Yes; while support for No was strongest among the under 35s. </p>
<p>Given that youth unemployment in Italy is <a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/italy/youth-unemployment-rate">dramatically high</a> and the material conditions of younger people are deteriorating, the clear message is that Renzi’s reform package was not seen as addressing this group’s problems. </p>
<p>On the other hand, it is interesting to note that the division between centre and periphery, urban and rural areas, which played a major role both in Brexit and in the election of Trump, does not explain what has happened in Italy. On the contrary, the No vote seems to have prevailed almost everywhere except in the regions of Tuscany and Emilia Romagna, the historic strongholds of Renzi’s Democratic Party. In many ways, then, this was a traditional rejection of an unpopular government. </p>
<h2>Italy and the EU</h2>
<p>The most likely immediate scenario following Renzi’s resignation is that a new government will be formed, led by the Democratic Party under a new leader. It will presumably approve the new electoral law and enact some of the bills behind Renzi’s political programme, and could in theory hold power until the current parliamentary term ends in February 2018. </p>
<p>It might well be that this new government will make anti-EU feeling even stronger. The likes of the Five Star Movement have understood how to capitalise on the growing tendency in this previously pro-European country to blame the EU for austerity and society’s ills. Of course, their chances of winning the next general election depends on how the next government reforms the electoral laws: ironically, the changes that Renzi was proposing would have favoured the Five Star Movement. No one, at this stage, can predict what the next electoral reform will look like. </p>
<p>From this vantage point, however, there is certainly a good chance that Italy is heading for a similar protectionist shift of the kind that looks likely to happen in the US next year. Some financial analysts <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/04/renzi-battle-survival-italians-go-polls-vote-seen-referendum/">are already</a> seeing the vote as the first step towards an Italian departure from the eurozone. </p>
<p>So while it is too simple to say that events in Italy exactly fit those in other countries, the outcome might well end up comparable. As if the EU did not have enough to worry about with Brexit, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-marine-le-pen-could-become-the-next-french-president-68765">Le Pen</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/31/geert-wilders-trial-throws-netherlands-divisions-in-sharp-relief">Wilders</a> and so on, this is one more crisis that it really could do without.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69919/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marco Goldoni does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The revolt that brought down Matteo Renzi is no carbon copy of Trump et al, but that won’t be of much comfort to Brussels.Marco Goldoni, Senior Lecturer, Law, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.