tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/lenin-moreno-37853/articlesLenin Moreno – The Conversation2020-04-24T12:21:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1370152020-04-24T12:21:36Z2020-04-24T12:21:36ZDeaths and desperation mount in Ecuador, epicenter of coronavirus pandemic in Latin America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330169/original/file-20200423-47820-ct3iol.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=184%2C92%2C4559%2C2966&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coffins await burial at the Jardines de Esperanza cemetery in Guayaquil, Ecuador, April 10, 2020. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/coffins-with-bodies-await-to-be-buried-jardines-de-news-photo/1209598949?adppopup=true">Eduardo Maquilon/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Dead bodies are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-guayaquil-ecuador-bodies-corpses-streets/2020/04/03/79c786c8-7522-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html">lying at home and in the streets of Guayaquil, Ecuador</a>, a city so hard-hit by coronavirus that overfilled hospitals are turning away even very ill patients and funeral homes are <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/ecuador-bodies-of-coronavirus-victims-are-on-streets/1791407">unavailable for burial</a>.</p>
<p>Data on deaths and infections is incomplete in Ecuador, as it is across the region. As of April 22, Ecuador – a country of 17 million people – had reported <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ecuador/">almost 11,000 cases</a>, which on a per capita basis would put it behind only Panama in Latin America. But the true number is likely much higher. </p>
<p>The government of Guayas Province, where Guayaquil is located, says <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52324218?emci=10ae4262-b480-ea11-a94c-00155d03b1e8&emdi=71eb1005-b580-ea11-a94c-00155d03b1e8&ceid=4606001">6,700 residents died</a> in the first half of April, as compared to 1,000 in a normal year. A New York Times analysis estimates Ecuador’s real coronavirus death toll may be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/americas/ecuador-deaths-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article">15 times the 503 deaths officially tallied</a> by April 15.</p>
<p>In a pandemic that has largely hit wealthy countries first, Ecuador is one of the first <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=EC-XT">developing countries</a> to face such a dire outbreak. </p>
<p>Wealth is no guarantee of safety in an epidemic. Italy and the United States have both run <a href="https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-07/researchers-look-for-ways-to-divert-patients-from-ventilators-as-shortage-looms">short of necessary medical equipment like ventilators</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/health/kidney-dialysis-coronavirus.html">dialysis machines</a>. But experts agree poorer countries are likely to see <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-will-infect-half-the-global-population-eiu-predicts.html">death rates escalate quickly</a>. </p>
<p>Our own academic research on <a href="https://www.puce.edu.ec/">Ecuadorean politics</a>
and <a href="https://www.latrobe.edu.au/about/management/organisation/senior/vc-fellow-altman">human security in past pandemics</a> suggests that coronavirus may create greater political and economic turmoil in a country that already struggles with instability.</p>
<h2>Ecuador’s swift response</h2>
<p>The coronavirus outbreak in Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city and economic engine, began in February, apparently with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2020/mar/20/coronavirus-ecuador-city-blocks-runway-to-spanish-repatriation-flight-video">infected people returning from Spain</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330167/original/file-20200423-47794-1eqgwa5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A doctor checking for COVID-19 symptoms in a family in Guayaquil, Ecuador, April 14, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/doctor-talks-to-a-family-while-checking-for-covid-19-news-photo/1209901713?adppopup=true">José Sanchez/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Its rapid escalation prompted panicked officials to impose social isolation quickly as a containment strategy. Ecuador’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/09/ecuador-struggles-contain-coronavirus-economic-anxiety-also-spreads/">restrictions on movement are strict and getting stricter</a>. </p>
<p>Ecuadorians may not leave their homes at all between the hours of 2 p.m. and 5 a.m. Outside of curfew, they may only go out to get food, for essential work or for health-related reasons, wearing masks and gloves. Public transport is canceled. </p>
<p>In Quito, Ecuador’s capital, people may only drive one day a week <a href="http://www.quitoinforma.gob.ec/2020/04/03/nueva-modalidad-de-restriccion-vehicular/">as determined by their license plate</a>. </p>
<p>This is the second time in a year Quito residents have found themselves under lockdown. In October 2019, a nighttime curfew was established quell <a href="https://theconversation.com/ecuadors-fuel-protests-show-the-risks-of-removing-fossil-fuel-subsidies-too-fast-125690">massive protests</a> against austerity measures that were imposed in exchange for a large loan from the International Monetary Fund. </p>
<p>The protests, led by indigenous groups, dissipated after President Lenín Moreno backed away from austerity – but not before at least <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/16/ecuador-indigenous-protesters-bittersweet-triumph">eight people were killed</a>.</p>
<h2>Latin America’s looming epidemic</h2>
<p>Ecuador has been more proactive in responding to the epidemic than many neighboring countries. </p>
<p>In Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro has largely <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-like-trump-brazils-bolsonaro-puts-the-economy-ahead-of-his-people-during-coronavirus-136351">downplayed the severity of the coronavirus</a>, despite thousands of new <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/brazil/">COVID-19 infections reported every day</a>. In Venezuela the power struggle between the government of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition government of Juan Guaidó impedes <a href="https://theconversation.com/catholic-church-urges-venezuela-to-unite-against-coronavirus-135591">any coordinated pandemic response</a>. </p>
<p>Most Latin American leaders who have taken decisive action against coronavirus see stay-at-home orders as the only way to avoid collapse of their <a href="https://www.americasquarterly.org/content/pandemic-times-squeezed-budgets-how-coronavirus-will-test-latin-america">fragile, underfunded health systems</a>. </p>
<p>Panama is <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/panama-sets-gender-based-movement-restrictions-to-control-coronavirus-spread">limiting outings</a> based on gender, allowing men and women to leave their homes three days each. Everyone <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/world/panama-coronavirus-sex-intl/index.html">stays home on Sundays</a>. </p>
<p>El Salvador’s president sent soldiers to enforce a <a href="https://elfaro.net/es/202004/ef_foto/24307/Cerco-militar-a-La-Libertad.htm">48-hour full lockdown of the city of La Libertad</a> that prohibited residents from leaving home for any reason – including to get food or medicine.</p>
<p>It’s unclear how such restrictions can persist in a region with <a href="https://www.cepal.org/en/pressreleases/poverty-latin-america-remained-steady-2017-extreme-poverty-increased-highest-level">considerable poverty</a> and social inequality. Large numbers of Latin Americans live day-to-day on money they make from <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/03/it-s-time-to-tackle-informal-economy-problem-latin-america/">street trading and other informal work</a>, which is now largely banned. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/es/2020/04/17/espanol/opinion/coronavirus-colombia.html">Hunger threatens</a> across the region.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330181/original/file-20200423-47810-oobc03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=474&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Colombians under mandatory quarantine hang red fabric out their windows to request food aid, Soacha, April 15, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/police-officer-stands-guard-as-members-of-the-local-news-photo/1219067324?adppopup=true">Leonardo Munoz/VIEWpress via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Limits of Ecuador’s response</h2>
<p>In Ecuador, where the average <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=EC">annual income is US$11,000</a>, the Moreno government is giving emergency grants of $60 to families whose monthly income is less than $400. It has opened shelters to get homeless people off the streets and commandeered hotels to <a href="https://www.primicias.ec/noticias/sociedad/emergencia-coronavirus-albergue-guayaquil/">isolate the infected</a>. </p>
<p>An active network of community organizations is also working to provide basic food and shelter to the needy, which includes most of the <a href="https://43bluedoors.com/2017/12/17/life-on-the-street/">quarter million Venezuelan refugees</a> who entered Ecuador in recent years. </p>
<p>Despite its active coronavirus response, Ecuador is unlikely to cope well if the epidemic spreads quickly from Guayaquil into the rest of the country. </p>
<p>Ecuador has <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/04/11/latin-americas-health-systems-brace-for-a-battering">a quarter as many ventilators per person as the United States</a>. Testing for COVID-19 is scarce and has largely been <a href="https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/after-expelling-cuban-doctors-brazil-requests-their-help-fight-covid-19">outsourced to private corporations</a>, making it prohibitively expensive. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330166/original/file-20200423-47810-57zo9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Street vendors in Guayaquil, Ecuador, April 17, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/street-vendors-sell-fruits-and-vegetables-on-april-17-2020-news-photo/1210270539?adppopup=true">Eduardo Maquilón/Agencia Press South/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>President Moreno’s expulsion of 400 Cuban doctors from Ecuador last year – part of his emphatic <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-120-days-into-his-term-ecuadors-new-president-is-already-undoing-his-own-partys-legacy-85651">shift rightward for Ecuador</a> – has left big holes in its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-cuba-doctors-trump-ecuador-brazil-bolivia/2020/04/10/d062c06e-79c4-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html">already understaffed hospitals</a>.</p>
<p>Ecuador’s <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ecuador/overview">economy</a> is in crisis after the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-is-just-the-latest-blow-to-oil-producers-133498">collapse in oil prices</a> <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106008/coronavirus-economic-impact-tourism-scenario-ecuador/">and tourism</a>. And while <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/04/06/ecuador-lessons-2019-protests">last year’s deadly protests</a> are over, politics – and political unrest – continue to polarize the nation. </p>
<p>On April 7 Ecuador’s highest court sentenced the popular but divisive leftist former President Rafael Correa to eight years in prison <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/world/americas/ecuador-correa-corruption-verdict.html">on corruption charges</a>. Correa, who now lives in Belgium, says the charges are fabricated to ensure he cannot <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-52208588">run for office again</a>. His conviction increases political divisions during a crisis that calls for unity.</p>
<p>Ecuador’s death rate is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/coronavirus-news.html">starting to slow</a> after more than a month of lockdown. But the specter of COVID-19 victims lying unburied at home, in hospital hallways, and on the streets, hangs as a specter across Latin America. </p>
<p>Guayaquil is a grim forecast of how this pandemic kills in the less wealthy world.</p>
<p>[<em>Get facts about coronavirus and the latest research.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=upper-coronavirus-facts">Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.</a>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/137015/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Dead bodies left at home and in streets. Quarantined people facing hunger. Political turmoil. Ecuador’s coronavirus outbreak is a grim forecast of what may await poorer countries when COVID-19 hits.Dennis Altman, Professorial Fellow in Human Security, La Trobe UniversityJuan Carlos Valarezo, Professor of International Relations, Pontificia Universidad Católica de EcuadorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1243852019-10-09T16:50:28Z2019-10-09T16:50:28ZThe Latin American left isn’t dead yet<p>Argentina, Bolivia and <a href="https://www.elpais.com.uy/informacion/politica/elecciones-dicen-encuestas-cara-octubre.html">Uruguay</a> will all hold presidential elections in October. And, for now, leftists are <a href="https://www.as-coa.org/content/guide-2019-latin-american-elections/argentina">strong contenders</a> in all three countries. </p>
<p>This is a somewhat unexpected development. Beginning in 2015, <a href="https://nacla.org/news/2016/12/09/right-turn">conservatives toppled</a> major leftist strongholds, including in Brazil, Argentina and Chile. The socially progressive Latin American left was <a href="https://aulablog.net/2019/01/09/a-right-turn-in-latin-america/">declared dead</a> <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/07/pink-tide-latin-america-chavez-morales-capitalism-socialism/">many times over</a>. </p>
<p>But the left-leaning populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-was-elected-to-transform-mexico-can-he-do-it-99176">victory in Mexico</a> in July 2018 showed that Latin American political winds don’t all blow in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-left-turn-and-the-road-to-uncertainty-106847">same direction</a>.</p>
<p>So what can be learned from the failures and successes of Latin America’s leftist parties and governments in the very recent past?</p>
<h2>Latin America’s ‘left turn’</h2>
<p>About two-thirds of all Latin Americans lived under some form of leftist government <a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/book/1866">by 2010</a> – a “pink tide” that washed over the region following the election of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela in 1998. </p>
<p>Only a few countries – notably Colombia and Mexico – remained under conservative political leadership during this period.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296464/original/file-20191010-188792-1ysbkxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296464/original/file-20191010-188792-1ysbkxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296464/original/file-20191010-188792-1ysbkxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296464/original/file-20191010-188792-1ysbkxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296464/original/file-20191010-188792-1ysbkxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296464/original/file-20191010-188792-1ysbkxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296464/original/file-20191010-188792-1ysbkxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296464/original/file-20191010-188792-1ysbkxb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Argentina, Bolivia and Uruguay have elections in October.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock.com/The Conversation</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Academics conventionally grouped this <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/welfare-and-party-politics-in-latin-america/BFE6B43ED35B5CB02919279F5620AB73">Latin American left</a> into <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=eKOwSqYH5rcC&printsec=frontcover&dq=uruguay+social+democratic+left&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiBl7LNpY_lAhXQl-AKHaIlB7QQ6AEwAHoECAEQAg#v=onepage&q=uruguay%20social%20democratic%20left&f=false">two camps</a>. </p>
<p>There was the moderate “social democratic” left of Brazil, Chile and Uruguay, which embraced an agenda of egalitarianism while accepting the basic precepts of market economics. </p>
<p>This group was generally contrasted with the <a href="https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=3IVjDgAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PT5&ots=8jhwLduGbl&sig=eLyxmkw3j55zS5nuIfqGGkj6WI8#v=onepage&q&f=false">more radical “populist” left</a> that ran Venezuela, <a href="https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cuny/cp/2016/00000048/00000004/art00003">Bolivia</a>, Nicaragua and Ecuador. These governments shared the moderate left’s commitment to progressive social change but had bolder aims: an alternative to market economics and profound changes to political institutions. </p>
<p>Such groupings did little to predict these countries’ divergent fates.</p>
<p>In a few places, leftist governments have remained popular, vibrant and electorally competitive after over a decade in power – namely <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/bolivia/2018-02-14/key-evo-morales-political-longevity">Bolivia and Uruguay</a>. </p>
<p>But by 2015, <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/bolsonaro-and-brazils-illiberal-backlash/">Brazil</a>, <a href="https://www.wola.org/sites/default/files/Venezuela/Smilde%20Current%20History--final.pdf">Venezuela</a> and <a href="https://nacla.org/news/2018/07/25/nicaragua-view-left">Nicaragua</a> had all become political and economic catastrophes. <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/party-vibrancy-and-democracy-in-latin-america-9780190870041?cc=us&lang=en&">Chile’s leftist government</a> sharply declined in popularity. </p>
<h2>The conformist temptation</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ob2gBJoAAAAJ&hl=en">political science research</a> identifies some shared weaknesses of the <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=d7yzgzQAAAAJ&hl=en">Latin American left</a>.</p>
<p>The first lesson comes from the Workers Party, which governed Brazil between 2003 and 2016. </p>
<p>Like many progressive parties, the Workers Party’s founding leaders were idealistic – committed to <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300050745/workers-party-and-democratization-brazil">upending Brazilian politics as usual</a>. </p>
<p>Under the Workers Party, Brazil experienced a massive <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11186-019-09351-7">expansion of social citizenship rights</a>. By 2008, Brazilian President Lula da Silva was arguably the <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-brazil-tilts-rightward-lulas-leftist-legacy-of-lifting-the-poor-is-at-risk-65939">world’s most popular president</a>.</p>
<p>But the Workers Party became <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/comparative-politics/transformation-workers-party-brazil-19892009?format=PB&isbn=9780521733007">detached from the social movements</a> it once championed. Deeply immersed in the normal – even <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-brazil-is-winning-its-fight-against-corruption-71968">corrupt</a> – give-and-take of Brazilian politics, the party came to be molded by the flawed system it sought to change.</p>
<p>We call this pitfall the “conformist temptation.” </p>
<p>The Workers Party rule ended with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/impeachment-culture-wars-and-the-politics-of-identity-in-brazil-59436">2016 impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff</a>, Lula’s hand-picked successor. Although Rousseff herself <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-brazilian-president-dilma-rousseffs-real-crime-59363">faced no corruption charges</a>, the Workers Party left power associated with corruption scandals, campaign finance violations and economic mismanagement – the exact problems it had promised to fix.</p>
<p>Chile’s Socialist Party met a similar fate. </p>
<p>Under Presidents Ricardo Lagos and Michelle Bachelet, moderate leftists who governed Chile almost uninterrupted from 2001 to 2018, the party <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/12/18/chile-just-elected-a-billionaire-president-these-are-the-4-things-you-need-to-know/">distanced itself from its supporters in social movements</a>.</p>
<p>In 2011, students and teachers began <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2011/08/student-protests-in-chile/100125/">protesting</a> Chile’s low levels of public education funding and <a href="https://www.borgenmagazine.com/economic-inequality-in-chile/">high inequality</a>. The <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1866802X1600800305">youth protest movement</a> grew, exposing Chileans’ disappointment at the Socialists’ limited progress on social reforms. </p>
<p>These divisions on the left <a href="https://theconversation.com/chile-heads-into-presidential-runoff-with-a-transformed-political-landscape-86453">allowed Chile’s strong right wing to win</a> Chile’s 2018 presidential election.</p>
<h2>The autocratic temptation</h2>
<p>Crises in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Ecuador result from a different fatal flaw. </p>
<p>In these three countries, leftist leaders succumbed to what we call the “autocratic temptation” – the idea that a charismatic leader or popular political movement not only can speak for an <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/latin-americas-authoritarian-drift-the-threat-from-the-populist-left/">entire nation</a> but that they can <a href="https://theconversation.com/bolivia-is-not-venezuela-even-if-its-president-does-want-to-stay-in-power-forever-93253">do so forever</a>.</p>
<p>Like many authoritarian leaders, Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro and Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega have lost touch with their constituents. When leaders become too insulated, <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-dictators-dilemma-9780190228552?cc=us&lang=en&">research shows</a>, safeguards against corruption and irresponsible public policies weaken. </p>
<p>Authoritarian leaders are less likely to change course when things go wrong. </p>
<p>The consequences may be devastating – like Maduro’s egregious failure to adjust Venezuela’s exchange rate policies during its descent into economic crisis and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/venezuelas-crisis-in-5-charts/2019/01/26/97af60a6-20c4-11e9-a759-2b8541bbbe20_story.html">hyperinflation</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Weyland-24-3.pdf">Authoritarian leadership</a> has degraded democracy in Venezuela, Nicaragua and Ecuador in other ways, too. <a href="https://theconversation.com/ecuadors-populist-electoral-victory-for-moreno-shows-erosion-of-democracy-75157">Checks and balances on presidential authority</a> have been weakened and press freedoms restricted. In Venezuela and Nicaragua, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicaragua-protests-threaten-an-authoritarian-regime-that-looked-like-it-might-never-fall-95776">electoral process was manipulated</a>.</p>
<p>The autocratic temptation to lionize a charismatic founding leader weakens the governing political party, too, by making it extremely difficult for new leaders to emerge and carry forward the party’s long-term transformative agenda.</p>
<p>In Nicaragua and Venezuela, that has meant that <a href="https://theconversation.com/nicaraguans-try-to-topple-a-dictator-again-98123">autocrats have clung to power</a> despite popular demand that they leave.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://aulablog.net/2018/02/02/ecuador-referendum-marks-critical-juncture-for-moreno-and-correa/">Ecuador</a>, the current and former presidents – Lenín Moreno and Rafael Correa – are engaged in a bitter dispute. Protests have rocked Ecuador over Moreno’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49955695">economic policy shifts</a> away from Correa’s agenda.</p>
<h2>Leftist exceptions</h2>
<p>So what explains the resilience of the left in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/when-movements-become-parties/F06BEE9DEA9BA4E7DCFBD9A87266FAB8#fndtn-information">Bolivia</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/how-party-activism-survives/93C5584DB63DF0A80B51F3EEB68BC8E9">Uruguay</a>, where leftist parties have reduced <a href="http://www.santiagoanria.com/data.html">inequality</a> and made tremendous progress toward <a href="https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/delegative-democracy-revisited-more-inclusion-less-liberalism-in-bolivia/">social and political inclusion</a>? Left-wing candidates are polling well in both countries’ <a href="http://www.startribune.com/evo-morales-not-trending-among-bolivia-s-youth-ahead-of-vote/562382812">presidential races</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296075/original/file-20191008-128681-1cs7t1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/296075/original/file-20191008-128681-1cs7t1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296075/original/file-20191008-128681-1cs7t1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296075/original/file-20191008-128681-1cs7t1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296075/original/file-20191008-128681-1cs7t1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296075/original/file-20191008-128681-1cs7t1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/296075/original/file-20191008-128681-1cs7t1u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Argentine presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez and running mate, former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, at a campaign rally, Aug. 7, 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://pictures.reuters.com/CS.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0BXZSUWZX3IE&SMLS=1&RW=1920&RH=996#/SearchResult&VBID=2C0BXZSUWZX3IE&SMLS=1&RW=1920&RH=996&POPUPPN=8&POPUPIID=2C0BF1MYIRFG1">Reuters/Agustin Marcarian</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In our assessment, what sets Bolivia and Uruguay apart is the strength of the ties between the leftist parties and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/when-movements-become-parties/F06BEE9DEA9BA4E7DCFBD9A87266FAB8#fndtn-information">allied social movements</a> there. That has encouraged the accountability and responsiveness lacking in Venezuela, Brazil and Chile. </p>
<p>Civil society in Bolivia and Uruguay also retained its capacity for independent mobilization, constraining any possible slide into autocracy or unbridled ambition. </p>
<p>That may explain why Bolivia has so far <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/bolivia/2018-02-14/key-evo-morales-political-longevity">avoided the worst social and economic consequences of the autocratic temptation</a> – despite its charismatic indigenous president, Evo Morales, <a href="https://theconversation.com/bolivia-is-not-venezuela-even-if-its-president-does-want-to-stay-in-power-forever-93253">eliminating term limits and consolidating power</a> over the past 14 years. </p>
<p>In Argentina the left’s possible comeback has more to do with conservative president Mauricio Macri’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/sep/10/argentina-economic-crisis-imf-debt-default">economic mismanagement</a>. But the center-left ticket leading Argentina’s presidential race has also succeeded because the candidates formed a broad national coalition – one that includes an array of social movements, from labor unions to feminist groups.</p>
<p>The Latin American left has some life in it yet.</p>
<p>[ <em>You respect facts and expertise. So do The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=yourespect">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/124385/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Progressives are leading in the presidential elections of Argentina, Uruguay and Bolivia, bucking the region’s recent rightward trend. But there are lessons in the failures of leftists past.Santiago Anria, Assistant Professor of Political Science and Latin American Studies, Dickinson CollegeKenneth M. Roberts, Richard J. Schwartz Professor of Government and Director, Latin American Studies Program, Cornell UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/867252017-11-01T21:50:55Z2017-11-01T21:50:55ZAfter months of feuding, Ecuador’s president is ousted by his party<p>After months of internal dissent and public feuding, Ecuador’s president, Lenin Moreno, has been removed as president of his party, the <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2017/11/01/america/1509507976_009785.html">Alianza Pais</a>. He will remain in office, though, and the decision – <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/pugna-liderazgo-movimiento-alianzapais-leninmoreno.html">technically justified</a> by Moreno’s absence from several meetings – is <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/11/01/nota/6461203/jose-serrano-mi-lenin-moreno-sigue-siendo-presidente-alianza-pais">being hotly contested within the party</a>.</p>
<p>Moreno served as vice president for six years under <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/18/world/americas/rafael-correa-wins-re-election-in-ecuador.html">Rafael Correa, the popular and charismatic founder</a> of the left-wing Alianza Pais party. In April 2017, he was narrowly elected as the successor to Correa’s administration, which oversaw the most stable political period of Ecuador’s democratic history. </p>
<p>During his presidential campaign against the conservative banker Guillermo Lasso, there were already <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-a-tense-election-ecuador-is-divided-over-its-political-future-73654">signs that Moreno was distancing</a> himself from Correa. But at the time, these subtle political shifts seemed necessary to win an <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/ruling-party-candidate-lenin-moreno-leads-vote-170220033337504.html">extremely tight race</a> on a continent where <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-a-chilean-outsider-revive-latin-americas-ailing-left-71213">the once-powerful Left is now ailing</a>. </p>
<p>Now, after executing a shocking <a href="http://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-ecuador-empieza-distanciarse-bolivarianismo-201708212037_noticia.html">breakaway from both the Alianza Pais platform</a> and its supreme leader, Correa, the party is taking action against him. This political turnaround is complicating Ecuador’s democratic transition and unraveling the powerful Alianza Pais. </p>
<h2>The outstretched hand</h2>
<p>Elected by <a href="https://resultados2017-2.cne.gob.ec/frmResultados.aspx">just 2.3 points</a> over Lasso, Moreno knew his administration would <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-left-won-ecuadors-presidential-election-cue-right-wing-revolt-76262">face serious challenges</a> – among them, governing a highly polarized nation.</p>
<p>To tackle them, candidate Moreno seemed to think that demonstrating autonomy from Correa was a must-do. On the campaign trail, Moreno promised voters “national reconciliation,” “an outstretched hand” and “continuity with change.” Commentators took to calling this stratagem the “<a href="http://panamarevista.com/lenin-moreno-el-delfin-distante/">de-Correafication</a>” of Ecuador.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"833812350041980928"}"></div></p>
<p>Once in office, that process expanded. The president has now engaged every social and political force that Correa’s administration had considered “the opposition,” from the <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/politica-leninmoreno-conaie-comodato-sede.html">indigenous movement</a> to the financial sector and <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/07/12/nota/6277198/lenin-moreno-pide-directivos-medios-que-prensa-sea-primera">media conglomerates</a>. </p>
<p>Moreno has also held talks with <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/correa-pacto-bucaram-ecuador-lenin.html">opposition parties</a> and the <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/consejo-consultivo-presidente-leninmoreno-propuestas.html">Ecuadorian Business Committee</a>, a lobby that had urged the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/feb/15/rafael-correa-ecuador-elections">Correa government</a>, which spent heavily on social welfare, to <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/sector-productivo-dialogo-ecuador-leninmoreno.html">curb public expenditures</a>.</p>
<h2>Pivot time</h2>
<p>Conversation led to action. Moreno acceded to financial sector demands that <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/dinero-electronico-bce-banca-codigomonetario.html">private banks be allowed to work with digital cash</a>. In Ecuador, all electronic payments had previously <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2015/02/06/ecuador-becomes-the-first-country-to-roll-out-its-own-digital-durrency.html">been controlled by the central bank</a>.</p>
<p>He also agreed to <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/05/09/nota/6176500/lenin-moreno-anuncia-posibles-cambios-ley-comunicacion-si-no-es">introduce reforms to the Communications Act</a> that will protect freedom of expression, acquiescing to calls from media companies that for years did battle with Correa.</p>
<p>Finally, in a nod to austerity, the new president <a href="https://lahora.com.ec/noticia/1102090789/presidente-moreno-anuncia-baja-de-sueldos-de-altos-funcionarios-y-venta-de-avion-presidencial">cut civil servant salaries</a>, even though Ecuador ranks among the Latin American nations <a href="http://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-40853676">with the lowest public debt</a>.</p>
<p>Such moves worry the Alianza Pais’s base, who fear that the president is subverting Correa’s self-declared “citizen’s revolution.” If so, he’s doing it without any clear political or economic vision. Moreno’s policies are so incongruous that the right-wing Lasso recently offered to “lend” the president his <a href="https://twitter.com/LassoGuillermo/status/892051318705201154">economic plan</a>.</p>
<h2>A public fued</h2>
<p>It didn’t take long for Moreno and his powerful predecessor to begin publicly clashing. </p>
<p>In June, Correa began to “editorialize” the Moreno administration in <a href="http://www.eltelegrafo.com.ec/noticias/punto-de-vista/1/el-caso-odebrecht">opinion pieces in El Telégrafo newspaper</a>. On Twitter, he implicitly criticized the president as having either a “short memory” or acting “in bad faith.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"885270203810160641"}"></div></p>
<p>Moreno responded in kind. In a public meeting in June, <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/07/11/nota/6275908/declaraciones-cruzadas-lenin-moreno-rafael-correa">he said</a>, “Now we can breath freely, slowly we will all shed our sheep-like behavior.” He added that “<a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/07/11/nota/6275359/lenin-moreno-reconoce-que-situacion-economica-dificil-falta-mesura">the table is not set</a>…he [Correa] could have been a bit more reasonable about leaving things in better condition.”</p>
<p>The former president quickly <a href="https://twitter.com/MashiRafael/status/885273303665061888">took to the internet to condemn</a> the president’s intractability, saying that Moreno’s actions would undo El Correismo – Correa’s self-titled political movement – bow to corporate interests and kill Ecuador’s <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/news/Cuanto-ha-cambiado-Ecuador-con-la-Revolucion-Ciudadana%20%E2%80%93%2020150115-0097.html">citizen revolution</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"893948043527172096"}"></div></p>
<p>Adding to the chorus was Moreno’s own vice president, Jorge Glas, a Correa insider. In an Aug. 2 <a href="http://www.eltelegrafo.com.ec/noticias/politica/2/jorge-glas-critica-en-carta-publica-acciones-del-gobierno-de-lenin-moreno">public letter</a>, he protested President Moreno’s rapprochement with conservative forces.</p>
<p>All this fueled the new president’s move to break away from El Correismo, even though just months ago Ecuadorian voters opted in favor of Correa’s legacy. </p>
<h2>Irreconcilable differences</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/virgiliohernandez-ricardopatino-paolapabon-renuncian-cargos.html">resignation, in August, of several senior officials</a> from El Correismo’s progressive wing showed that the <a href="https://medium.com/@MashiRafael/queridos-compa%C3%B1eros-de-alianza-pa%C3%ADs-6fa8b6f38d47">government and the political movement were drifting farther apart</a>. </p>
<p>On Oct. 30, Moreno criticized his predecessor’s media policies, which some journalists felt <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/29/ecuador-journalists-lenin-moreno-correa-press-freedom">limited freedom of the press</a>. “The media cannot be converted into propaganda tools for the government nor, much less still, a party or political movement,” he said. </p>
<p>He also promised to move forward with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-120-days-into-his-term-ecuadors-new-president-is-already-undoing-his-own-partys-legacy-85651">referendum</a> that seems aimed at overturning some of Correa’s reforms and boosting Moreno’s political capital among the conservative base he’ll now depend upon. </p>
<p>On Oct. 31, the growing schism within Ecuador’s Left seemed to have become an irreparable separation. What happens next – to Alianza Pais and this president’s administration – is anyone’s guess. </p>
<p><em>This article has been corrected. Moreno was removed as president of the Alianza Pais on Oct. 31 but allowed to maintain party affiliation. A version of this article <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-120-days-into-his-term-ecuadors-new-president-is-already-undoing-his-own-partys-legacy-85651">was originally published</a> on Oct. 16, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/86725/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Soledad Stoessel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ecuador’s new president, Lenin Moreno, has been disavowed by the party that brought him to power after disputing with his left-wing predecessor.Soledad Stoessel, Postdoctoral Researcher, Latin American Political Processes, Universidad Nacional de la PlataLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/856512017-10-17T00:45:12Z2017-10-17T00:45:12ZJust 120 days into his term, Ecuador’s new president is already undoing his own party’s legacy<p><em>Leer <a href="http://theconversation.com/como-el-nuevo-presidente-del-ecuador-deshizo-el-legado-del-correismo-en-tan-solo-120-dias-85812">en español</a>.</em></p>
<p>After months of internal dissent and very public feuding, Ecuador’s president, Lenin Moreno, has been kicked out of his party, the <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2017/11/01/america/1509507976_009785.html">Alianza Pais</a>, though the decision is <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/11/01/nota/6461203/jose-serrano-mi-lenin-moreno-sigue-siendo-presidente-alianza-pais">hotly contested</a>.</p>
<p>Moreno served as vice president for six years under <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/18/world/americas/rafael-correa-wins-re-election-in-ecuador.html">Rafael Correa, the popular and charismatic founder</a> of the left-wing political party. In April 2017, he was narrowly elected as the successor to Correa’s administration, which oversaw the most stable political period of Ecuador’s democratic history. </p>
<p>During his presidential campaign against the conservative banker Guillermo Lasso, there were already <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-a-tense-election-ecuador-is-divided-over-its-political-future-73654">signs that Moreno was distancing</a> himself from Correa. But at the time, these subtle political shifts seemed necessary to win an <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/02/ruling-party-candidate-lenin-moreno-leads-vote-170220033337504.html">extremely tight race</a> on a continent where <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-a-chilean-outsider-revive-latin-americas-ailing-left-71213">the once-powerful Left is now ailing</a>. </p>
<p>Now, after executing a shocking <a href="http://www.abc.es/internacional/abci-ecuador-empieza-distanciarse-bolivarianismo-201708212037_noticia.html">breakaway from both the Alianza Pais platform</a> and its supreme leader, Correa, the party is taking action against him. This political turnaround is complicating Ecuador’s democratic transition and unraveling the Alianza Pais. At risk is nothing less than the will of the people.</p>
<h2>The outstretched hand</h2>
<p>Elected by <a href="https://resultados2017-2.cne.gob.ec/frmResultados.aspx">just 2.3 points</a> over Lasso, Moreno knew his administration would <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-left-won-ecuadors-presidential-election-cue-right-wing-revolt-76262">face serious challenges</a> – among them, governing a highly polarized nation.</p>
<p>To tackle them, candidate Moreno seemed to think that demonstrating autonomy from Correa was a must-do. On the campaign trail, Moreno promised voters “national reconciliation,” “an outstretched hand” and “continuity with change.” Commentators took to calling this stratagem the “<a href="http://panamarevista.com/lenin-moreno-el-delfin-distante/">de-Correafication</a>” of Ecuador.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"833812350041980928"}"></div></p>
<p>Once in office, that process expanded. The president has now engaged every social and political force that Correa’s administration had considered “the opposition,” from the <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/politica-leninmoreno-conaie-comodato-sede.html">indigenous movement</a> to the financial sector and <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/07/12/nota/6277198/lenin-moreno-pide-directivos-medios-que-prensa-sea-primera">media conglomerates</a>. </p>
<p>Moreno has also held talks with <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/correa-pacto-bucaram-ecuador-lenin.html">opposition parties</a> and the <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/consejo-consultivo-presidente-leninmoreno-propuestas.html">Ecuadorian Business Committee</a>, a lobby that had urged the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/feb/15/rafael-correa-ecuador-elections">Correa government</a>, which spent heavily on social welfare, to <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/sector-productivo-dialogo-ecuador-leninmoreno.html">curb public expenditures</a>.</p>
<h2>Pivot time</h2>
<p>Conversation led to action. Moreno acceded to financial sector demands that <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/dinero-electronico-bce-banca-codigomonetario.html">private banks be allowed to work with digital cash</a>. In Ecuador, all electronic payments had previously <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2015/02/06/ecuador-becomes-the-first-country-to-roll-out-its-own-digital-durrency.html">been controlled by the central bank</a>.</p>
<p>He also agreed to <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/05/09/nota/6176500/lenin-moreno-anuncia-posibles-cambios-ley-comunicacion-si-no-es">introduce reforms to the Communications Act</a> that will protect freedom of expression, acquiescing to calls from media companies that for years did battle with Correa.</p>
<p>Finally, in a nod to austerity, the new president <a href="https://lahora.com.ec/noticia/1102090789/presidente-moreno-anuncia-baja-de-sueldos-de-altos-funcionarios-y-venta-de-avion-presidencial">cut civil servant salaries</a>, even though Ecuador ranks among the Latin American nations <a href="http://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-40853676">with the lowest public debt</a>.</p>
<p>Such moves worried the Alianza Pais’s base, who fear that the president is subverting Correa’s self-declared “citizen’s revolution.” If so, he’s doing it without any clear political or economic vision. Moreno’s policies are so incongruous that the right-wing Lasso recently offered to “lend” the president his <a href="https://twitter.com/LassoGuillermo/status/892051318705201154">economic plan</a>.</p>
<h2>Both ruling party and opposition</h2>
<p>It didn’t take long for Moreno and his powerful predecessor to begin publicly clashing. </p>
<p>In June, Correa began to “editorialize” the Moreno administration in <a href="http://www.eltelegrafo.com.ec/noticias/punto-de-vista/1/el-caso-odebrecht">opinion pieces in El Telégrafo newspaper</a>. On Twitter, he implicitly criticized the president as having either a “short memory” or acting “in bad faith.”</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"885270203810160641"}"></div></p>
<p>Moreno responded in kind. In a public meeting in June, <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/07/11/nota/6275908/declaraciones-cruzadas-lenin-moreno-rafael-correa">he said</a>, “Now we can breath freely, slowly we will all shed our sheep-like behavior.” He added that “<a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/07/11/nota/6275359/lenin-moreno-reconoce-que-situacion-economica-dificil-falta-mesura">the table is not set</a>…he [Correa] could have been a bit more reasonable about leaving things in better condition.”</p>
<p>The former president quickly <a href="https://twitter.com/MashiRafael/status/885273303665061888">took to the internet to condemn</a> the president’s intractability, saying that Moreno’s actions would undo El Correismo – Correa’s self-titled political movement – bow to corporate interests and kill Ecuador’s <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/news/Cuanto-ha-cambiado-Ecuador-con-la-Revolucion-Ciudadana%20%E2%80%93%2020150115-0097.html">citizen revolution</a>.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"893948043527172096"}"></div></p>
<p>Adding to the chorus was Moreno’s own vice president, Jorge Glas, a Correa insider. In an Aug. 2 <a href="http://www.eltelegrafo.com.ec/noticias/politica/2/jorge-glas-critica-en-carta-publica-acciones-del-gobierno-de-lenin-moreno">public letter</a>, he protested President Moreno’s rapprochement with conservative forces.</p>
<p>All this fueled the new president’s move to break away from El Correismo, even though just months ago Ecuadorian voters opted in favor of Correa’s legacy. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/virgiliohernandez-ricardopatino-paolapabon-renuncian-cargos.html">resignation, in August, of several senior officials</a> from El Correismo’s progressive wing showed that the <a href="https://medium.com/@MashiRafael/queridos-compa%C3%B1eros-de-alianza-pa%C3%ADs-6fa8b6f38d47">government and the political movement were drifting farther apart</a>. On Nov. 1, that schism became what appears to be an irreparable separation. </p>
<h2>Scandal or political convenience?</h2>
<p>Adding fuel to this national political fire are <a href="https://cuencahighlife.com/massive-odebrecht-bribery-scandal-implicates-ecuador-11-latin-american-countries/">explosive revelations</a> that at least 18 Ecuadorian officials have been implicated in Brazil’s massive <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-the-odebrecht-corruption-scandal-2017-5">Odebrecht scandal</a>.</p>
<p>The international bribery scheme has taken down several senior members of Correa’s administration, including Vice President Glas. He stands accused of leading a network of civil servants who accepted <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/news/Procuraduria-de-Ecuador-acusa-a-vicepresidente-Glas-por-caso-Odebrecht-20170929-0001.html">US$33 million in corporate kickbacks</a>. </p>
<p>Moreno could ask for no better excuse to isolate his Correa-friendly veep. On Aug. 3, one day after Glas’s critical open letter, the president <a href="http://www.telam.com.ar/notas/201708/197139-peru-presidente-lenin-moreno-decreto-retira-funciones-vicepresidente-jorge-glas-criticas.html">stripped the vice president of all official powers</a>. On Oct. 2, Glas was arrested, and he is now in preventive detention while under <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/ecuador-vice-president-jorge-glas-arrested-jailed-corruption-bribery-investigation-odebrecht-supreme-a7980691.html">investigation</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"913828740509159424"}"></div></p>
<p>Moreno did promise to “<a href="http://www.andes.info.ec/es/noticias/lenin-moreno-apelara-convencion-onu-lucha-contra-corrupcion-lasso-plantea-eliminacion">battle corruption</a>,” and his <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/news/Presidente-de-Ecuador-firma-decreto-sobre-frente-anticorrupcion-20170605-0033.html">anti-corruption front</a> had seemed likely to please <a href="http://www.expreso.ec/actualidad/ecuador-corrupcion-preocupacion-candidatos-elecciones-YF896067">many sectors of society</a> that are frustrated with public malfeasance. </p>
<p>However, his efforts now appear less targeted at weeding out corruption than at undermining Correa’s legacy. Glas is in jail, but the economic powers that be, such as the South American financial conglomerate <a href="http://www.planv.com.ec/investigacion/investigacion/el-grupo-eljuri-problemas-presunto-lavado-y-evasion">Grupo Eljuri</a> – a key Odebrecht player – have remained immune from prosecution.</p>
<p>Among Lasso’s electoral base, 81 percent now rate <a href="http://mobile.ecuadorinmediato.com/index.php?module=Noticias&func=wap_news_view&id=2818826916">his administration positively</a>. Moreno’s policies have also been welcomed by people in major urban hubs like Quito and Cuenca, where the administration’s approval rates have risen since June. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"910917288622256129"}"></div></p>
<h2>Referendum time</h2>
<p>It was in this already tangled context that Moreno called for a plebiscite, theoretically a grassroots-inspired way to address national concerns. The president asked <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/09/20/nota/6391027/como-enviar-preguntas-consulta-popular">citizens and parties from across the political spectrum</a> to submit questions that they wanted the government to help answer.</p>
<p>Of the almost <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/09/28/nota/6404002/lenin-moreno-recibe-propuestas-sistematizadas-noticias-este-jueves">400 proposals</a> received, the government will go to referendum next year with just <a href="https://www.telesurtv.net/news/Lenin-Moreno-plantea-siete-preguntas-para-consulta-popular-20171002-0054.html">seven questions</a>. Among them will be to roll back <a href="http://ecuadorbeachfrontproperty.com/ecuadorblog/?p=1189">capital gains taxes</a> aimed at limiting land speculation and whether to undo Correa’s rollback of presidential term limits. </p>
<p>The selection process confirms the marginalization of Alianza Pais’s issues – he accepted just <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/09/28/nota/6404341/moreno-acogio-tres-preguntas-ap-reunion-urgente">three of the party’s congressional leaders’ 33 submissions</a>, alienating his own legislative bloc – and the resurgence of bankers, private media, traditional party leaders and financiers in Moreno’s coalition.</p>
<p>Rather than continue his predecessor’s legacy of reforms, Ecuador’s president seems keen to wield his popular mandate as a weapon to kill El Correismo once and for all.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/85651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Soledad Stoessel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Ecuador’s president, Lenin Moreno, has been flirting with conservatives. Beyond irking his base, it has also lead to mass resignations and Twitter battles with his powerful left-wing predecessor.Soledad Stoessel, Postdoctoral Researcher, Latin American Political Processes, Universidad Nacional de la PlataLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/762622017-04-17T06:30:57Z2017-04-17T06:30:57ZThe left won Ecuador’s presidential election — cue right-wing revolt<p>If Netflix had known how Ecuador’s April 2 presidential election would turn out, it might have waited to promote the fourth season of its <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1856010/">award-winning political drama House of Cards</a>. The post-run-off scenes in this South American nation were worthy of any political thriller. </p>
<p>The second round of voting <a href="https://resultados2017-2.cne.gob.ec/frmResultados.aspx">handed victory to Lenin Moreno</a>, candidate of the ruling left-wing Alianza País and the designated heir of president Rafael Correa (whom he served as vice president from 2007 to 2013). Moreno won narrowly with 51.16% of vote while his opponent, conservative former banker Guillermo Lasso of the CREO-SUMA alliance, had 48.84%.</p>
<p>Initial suspense over the neck-in-neck race quickly gave way to political hysteria by evening as the defeated candidate and his supporters (largely Ecuadorian elites), alleged fraud and took to the streets – and the airwaves – in violent protest. After more than a week of discord, Ecuadorian officials have now announced that they will undertake <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/15/ecuador-presidential-election-10-of-votes-to-be-recounted">partial recount</a> – the second such effort, this time double-checking contested results only. </p>
<p>Lasso’s VP candidate, Andrés Páez Benalcázar, had demanded a manual recount supervised by both parties in an April 13 <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/es/2017/04/13/los-ecuatorianos-tienen-derecho-al-recuento/?action=click&contentCollection=opinion&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection">New York Times <em>en español</em> opinion piece</a>.</p>
<h2>A brief chronicle of the fraud that wasn’t</h2>
<p>Here’s how it all went down.</p>
<p>At 5:01 pm on election day, television channels announced exit poll results with opposing outcomes, each calling the race for “their” man. The privately owned Ecuavisa <a href="http://www.ecuavisa.com/articulo/noticias/politica/258016-guillermo-lasso-obtiene-5302-frente-al-4698-lenin-moreno-segun">concluded a Lasso victory on results (later discredited) from one polling agency</a>. Meanwhile Ecuador TV, a public channel, <a href="https://twitter.com/EcuadorTV/status/848658122130456579">handed Moreno the win</a>. </p>
<p>By 5:15 pm, with official results still unreleased, journalists on non-state media were <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bgAq1HQMLw&feature=youtu.be">congratulating the not-president-to-be</a>: Ecuador’s <a href="http://nuso.org/articulo/activismo-estatal-y-democratizacion-social-en-ecuador-tensiones-contrahegemonicas-frente-al-poder-mediatico-2007-2013/">media battle</a> in all its splendour. </p>
<p>Four long hours later, at 9 pm, Ecuador’s national election board confirmed Moreno’s victory in a live press conference.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wmpnzLdOhJE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>To exactly no one’s surprise, Lasso fervently denied the election results at 10 pm, alleging fraud (without providing – then or ever – any evidence). Even Jaime Nebot, a Lasso ally, exhorted the CREO camp to <a href="http://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/2017/04/04/nota/6123680/jaime-nebot-pide-lideres-creo-presentar-pruebas-fraude">offer proof</a> for his accusations.</p>
<h2>Political hysteria</h2>
<p>This peculiar thriller might have been funny if the democratic future of a country weren’t at stake. </p>
<p>The Hungarian historian István Bibó <a href="https://books.google.com.ar/books/about/The_Art_of_Peacemaking.html?id=Q0TwBQAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y">has spoken of political hysteria</a> to explain what happens when communities fail to confront a powerful problem that threatens, if not their very existence, then at least their identity. They tend toward the stratagem of creating a fictional problem as a substitute for the real crisis they lack the tools or intellect to resolve. This tactic, Bibó says, allows people to feel a sensation of relief and grandeur. </p>
<p>Presumably the defeated Lasso and his supporters felt neither when they resuscitated the hypothesis of election fraud, which had also been floated <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-a-tense-election-ecuador-is-divided-over-its-political-future-73654">after the tight first round of voting in February</a>. </p>
<p>Several international transparency monitors <a href="https://twitter.com/Almagro_OEA2015/status/849027123994136580">have recognised the validity of the election</a> and many Latin American presidents, as well as the Organisation of American States (OAS), European governments and the US Department of State <a href="http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/04/04/actualidad/1491261928_439657.html">have congratulated President-elect Moreno</a>. </p>
<p>This did not stop the <em>Lassistas</em>, who, finding themselves impotent against a government they had declared “<a href="http://roderic.uv.es/bitstream/handle/10550/48916/28-41.pdf?sequence=1">populist institution-inundaters</a>”, laid siege on Ecuador’s institutions and demanded a recount “from the streets”.</p>
<h2>Political conflict and an institutional deluge</h2>
<p>Starting on April 3 and continuing through today (even as these lines were being written), Lasso and his allies have disrupted life in Ecuador’s major cities. In Quito, Cuenca, Guayaquil and Loja, people are burning tyres and staging aggressive public actions <a href="http://www.eltelegrafo.com.ec/noticias/politiko-2017/49/brotes-de-violencia-tras-anuncio-de-resultados-oficiales">to express their discontent with Moreno’s win</a> and support for the fraud allegations. </p>
<p>One image stands out: groups of Ecuador’s elite classes praying in the middle of a Quito avenue, <a href="https://tripamishqui.com/2017/04/07/las-fanaticas-plegarias-por-el-divino-lasso/">begging God to alter the election results</a>.</p>
<p>Alianza País supported the recount request <a href="http://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2017/04/06/alianza-pais-respalda-el-recuento-inmediato-de-los-votos-en-ecuador/">in deference to the mass citizen outcry</a>. That April 8 and 9 effort, with participation of the OAS and the South American bloc UNASUR, not only confirmed the original outcome but <a href="http://www.ecuadorinmediato.com/index.php?module=Noticias&func=news_user_view&id=2818818425&umt=reconteo_votos_finaliza_en_pichincha_carchi_e_imbabura_resultados_no_varian_entregados_2_abril">actually allotted Moreno even more votes</a>. Thus far the <em>Lassista</em> opposition has ignored these results.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"851426726529912832"}"></div></p>
<p>In an attempt to bring the current conflict to a close, President Correa proposed another <a href="http://www.elcomercio.com/actualidad/rafaelcorrea-apoyo-recuento-votos-jaimenebot.html">“random recount” of certain scrutinised disctricts</a>, though such an action may not be legally recognised. The <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/15/ecuador-presidential-election-10-of-votes-to-be-recounted">recount will take place</a> on Tuesday April 18.</p>
<h2>Institutional distrust</h2>
<p>There are real reasons for some measure of this political hysteria. </p>
<p>Many of those who reject Ecuador’s election results have convinced themselves – thanks, in part, to a <a href="http://elecciones2017.gkillcity.com/2017/04/06/por-que-es-dificil-aceptar-que-gano-lenin-moreno/">favourable social media microclimate</a> – that a ruling-party candidate could never win this election. After a decade of Alianza Pais leadership, Ecuador today is experiencing a <a href="http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/quito/12684-20160817.pdf">powerful economic slowdown</a>, and many feel that Correa-style <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-a-tense-election-ecuador-is-divided-over-its-political-future-73654">populism has run its course</a>. </p>
<p>Amid claims of <a href="http://www.ecuadorinmediato.com/index.php?module=Noticias&func=news_user_view&id=2818815398">high-level corruption within the Correa administration</a>, others have little faith in government, so they find it difficult to trust Ecuador’s official electoral board. </p>
<p>And though Lasso did indeed lose some steam <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/es/2017/04/01/ecuador-elecciones-guillermo-lasso-lenin-moreno-rafael-correa/">in the final weeks of his second-round campaign</a>, external events also appeared to be hurting Moreno’s chances. These were largely related to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-you-afraid-to-go-home-venezuelans-top-list-of-us-asylum-seekers-as-thousands-flee-74495">ongoing crisis in neighbouring Venezuela</a>, which reinforced some people’s concern that continued Alianza Pais rule would turn Ecuador into its polarised, conflict-ridden neighbour. </p>
<p>Things started to go south in mid-March when Ecuadorian authorities denied entry to Lilian Tintori, the wife of a prominent Venezuelan opposition politician anda Lasso supporter, because Ecuadorian law prohibits visas <a href="http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Ecuador-Denies-Entry-to-Venezuela-Opposition-Figure-Visiting-to-Campaign-for-Right-Wing-20170315-0013.html">for the purpose of prostheltism</a>. An incident in which Alianza Pais zealots roughed up Lasso at a <a href="http://www.radiopublica.ec/noticias/actualidad/lasso-salio-abucheado-del-atahualpa">soccer match</a> reinforced the narrative that a Moreno win would lead to Venezuela-style civil unrest. </p>
<h2>Tough act to follow</h2>
<p>Beyond electoral drama, the president-elect will confront a variety of real national challenges when he takes power on May 24. Fhe first order of business for Moreno will be reinforcing his legitimacy, given that nearly half of Ecuadorians cast their vote for change. </p>
<p>Lasso’s widespread support derived less from his political platform or personal charisma (and much less from his role in Ecuador’s <a href="http://www.andes.info.ec/es/noticias/guillermo-lasso-tuvo-participacion-activa-feriado-bancario-docente-investigador-iaen.html">economic crisis of 1999</a>) than from a certain exhaustion with President Rafael Correa’s leadership. To restore confidence in government, Moreno is likely to seek to include the different social and political forces of the country in his government.</p>
<p>He must also show that he has autonomy from Correa and is committed to strengthening Ecuadorian state institutions (other than the presidency). His comportment during the post-run-off contentiousness has not necessarily demonstrated this. </p>
<p>Still, the candidate’s promised “<a href="http://panamarevista.com/lenin-moreno-el-delfin-distante/que">de-Correafication</a>” process must be advanced cautiously, as many Ecuadorians still <a href="https://www.cedatos.com.ec/detalles_noticia.php?Id=266">revere the current president and his pro-poor policies</a>. </p>
<p>Moreno also faces a stagnant economy, which Ecuadorians <a href="http://www.latinobarometro.org/latNewsShow.jsp">see as the country’s biggest problem</a>. He must restart it, and do so without resorting to austerity and free-market ideas, as the conservative new presidents of <a href="http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2016/0116vernengo.html">Argentina</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/brazils-proposed-policies-will-hurt-womens-equality-and-be-bad-for-men-too-68214">Brazil</a> have done.</p>
<p>The fact that Correa’s chosen successor won in Ecuador shows that a majority of citizens agree on at least one thing: there’s no tolerance now for the Latin American neoliberal dogma in which the masses must suffer fiscal and social “adjustments” so that economy may later see some modest gains, after a decade of irrefutable expansion of rights.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76262/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Soledad Stoessel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A brief chronicle of the Ecuadorian election fraud that wasn’t.Soledad Stoessel, Postdoctoral Researcher, Latin American Political Processes., Universidad Nacional de la PlataLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.