tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/liberal-national-party-2163/articlesLiberal National party – The Conversation2023-07-13T10:15:15Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2096852023-07-13T10:15:15Z2023-07-13T10:15:15ZGrattan on Friday: Fadden byelection is Dutton’s immediate hurdle but party reform is the bigger challenge<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537242/original/file-20230713-19-9g5fo2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C17%2C2896%2C1179&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP; Cameron Caldwell/Facebook</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Stuart Robert has kept well away from the byelection to choose his parliamentary successor, but Labor has made sure the controversial former member hasn’t been forgotten. </p>
<p>Just over a week out from Saturday’s vote in the Gold Coast seat of Fadden, Robert received a pasting from the Robodebt royal commission (although not, he says, a referral for further action). Labor hopes the voters care. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is banking on their attention being on other things. </p>
<p>Dutton was glad to see the back of Robert, just as he was to have another discredited former minister, Alan Tudge, resign from parliament. </p>
<p>But Tudge’s departure came at high cost. The Liberals lost the seat of Aston at that byelection, which underscored the depth of Dutton’s difficulties in Victoria. </p>
<p>Fadden could deliver a blow or a boost to Dutton. He can hardly afford the former and desperately needs the latter. </p>
<p>Unlike Aston, which became marginal in 2022, Fadden sits on what is considered an impregnable 10.6% margin. Both sides are convinced it will stay in Coalition hands, so it’s all about the size and direction of the swing. </p>
<p>We shouldn’t over-read the results of byelections. Some matter, others don’t, but in today’s fevered politics, their results have impact in the moment. </p>
<p>In Fadden, both Labor and the Liberal National Party have had meaty issues on which to campaign. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/robodebt-royal-commissioner-makes-multiple-referrals-for-prosecution-condemning-scheme-as-crude-and-cruel-209318">Robodebt royal commissioner makes multiple referrals for prosecution, condemning scheme as 'crude and cruel'</a>
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<p>Labor has made the most of the discredited Robert, who faces other integrity questions separate to his role in Robodebt. Despite the welter of bad publicly about the former MP, some in Labor believe voters’ thoughts will be squarely on their own personal circumstances.</p>
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<p>The Liberals have going for them the cost-of-living pressures. They are also seeking to exploit concern over crime, targeting the state Labor government, which has lost its pandemic gloss and faces an election next year. The Liberals are urging voters to send messages to both federal and state Labor. </p>
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<p>The Voice to Parliament is not featuring.</p>
<p>Both sides are focusing on the local. The Liberals’ Cameron Caldwell is a long-time councillor with a small-business background. He has a bit of history – <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/lnp-sacks-second-candidate-cameron-caldwell-in-seat-of-broadwater-on-gold-coast/news-story/9e689a063caa2b6ca7d168cd7f3e51ed">prior to the 2012 Queensland election he was dropped as a candidate</a> after a complaint that he had, some years before, attended a “swingers club” (dressed in a pirate outfit). He said he was there with his wife for a drink. Dutton, campaigning in Fadden on Thursday, promoted Caldwell as a “local champion”. </p>
<p>Labor’s candidate, Letitia Del Fabbro, is a nurse educator at Griffith University. Like Mary Doyle in Aston, Del Fabbro ran at last year’s federal election, which means she had already done the spadework by the time the byelection came. </p>
<p>The field of 13 includes candidates from the Greens and One Nation. </p>
<p>The byelection matters for Anthony Albanese but less than it does for Dutton. </p>
<p>An anti-Labor swing – presuming it wasn’t too large – could be written off as what normally happens in byelections. The average byelection swing against governments, when the major parties contest, is 3.6%. Polling analyst Kevin Bonham points out that in byelections in federal opposition seats the historic average swing is only about 1% to the opposition. </p>
<p>Although the government could dismiss a modest swing, Labor hardheads would see it as a warning sign of the cost of living starting to bite in political terms. Labor knows the politics of that issue will only get tougher for the government in coming months. </p>
<p>A swing against Labor might be more alarming for the Palaszczuk government.</p>
<p>The Liberals, fearing the impact of another bad showing, have run the bigger campaign. Queensland is Dutton’s home state, where the Coalition held up at the 2022 election. Dutton is reportedly happy with the party’s efforts in Fadden, with the Liberal National Party machine running a competent campaign.</p>
<p>While the LNP organisation is in solid shape, there are bleak stories elsewhere. </p>
<p>The faction-ridden shambles in the NSW division took its toll in the 2022 election. Then federal minister Alex Hawke, in cahoots with Scott Morrison, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jul/13/scott-morrison-ally-faces-liberal-party-expulsion-over-nsw-preselection-debacle">delayed preselections for their own purposes</a>, with disastrous results. Recently Dutton, Liberal federal president John Olsen and party director Andrew Hirst wrote to the NSW organisation telling it to come up with a preselection timetable. Reportedly this caused some tensions. </p>
<p>Jason Falinski, a prominent moderate and one of the MPs defeated by a teal independent candidate at the federal election, is the new NSW president. He’s committed to improving the division, but it has a long record of being stubbornly committed to its own infighting. </p>
<p>The troubles with the Liberals in Victoria are centred on the state parliamentary party but spread through the division. Already on their knees after being routed at the state election, the Victorian Liberals have been torn apart over Moira Deeming, now expelled from the parliamentary party. Triggered by her attendance at the Let Women Speak rally, which Nazis gatecrashed, the imbroglio has hugely damaged state leader John Pesutto and divided the rank and file, where Deeming has strong support. It spilled over federally when last month the Liberals’ federal women’s committee called for Deeming to be reinstated. </p>
<p>Tasmania is the only state with a Liberal government, but the party is chaotic there too. The government was thrown into minority when two MPs defected to the crossbench in protest at its support for an expensive new stadium. The premier, Jeremy Rockliff, faces discontent from the grass roots. </p>
<p>In Western Australia there is an enormous rebuilding job from wipeouts at the state and federal elections. </p>
<p>One of Dutton’s problems in trying to knock heads together in NSW and Victoria is his own unpopularity in the south. But without the state machines being in better shape, the chance of electoral progress will be dragged down.</p>
<p>Outspoken Tasmanian federal Liberal MP Bridget Archer this week again called attention to something else the Liberals need – for Morrison to leave parliament. </p>
<p>Morrison came out of the Robodebt commission particularly badly. There is general agreement he has not quit earlier because he can’t get a decent job. The commission’s findings will put another negative on his CV. </p>
<p>Dutton would be delighted to have the former PM move on. That would, however, mean another byelection, with its opportunities and risks.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209685/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Fadden could deliver a blow or a boost to Dutton. He can hardly afford the former, and desperately needs the latter.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2029542023-03-30T09:08:34Z2023-03-30T09:08:34ZGrattan on Friday: We need more tax revenue, but don’t ask the major parties how we’ll get it<p>Teal candidates again fell short in the NSW election. Only one who was so labelled was successful, and she rejects the terminology. This followed the Victorian state election in which no teal won. </p>
<p>Inevitably, the two state polls raise the question of whether the teal phenomenon, which saw six win federally last May, was such a product of special circumstances that the balloon might now have burst. </p>
<p>The story is likely to be more complicated. </p>
<p>The federal teals’ campaigns were awash with money – different laws at state level limited resources available to them, even though Climate 200 continued to help. In NSW, optional preferential voting also worked against them. </p>
<p>The specific issues driving the federal teals’ wins (climate change, integrity, women’s equality) were particularly intense in 2022, and the anti-Morrison factor was huge. </p>
<p>When the federal teals seek re-election, there will be no Morrison factor.
But the benefits of incumbency will work for them, as will the general and continued disillusionment with the major parties, which means many voters are looking favourably on independent alternatives. </p>
<p>While the changed electoral scene in 2025 (compared to 2022) could make it harder for new teal candidates to win, so might an overhaul of the electoral funding regime. </p>
<p>If, for example, Labor decided to cap candidates’ spending, which would be desirable to stop the financial arms race we now see in elections, that would harm teal candidates struggling for name recognition. On the other hand, given the teal movement, directed at Liberal seats, has benefited Labor, the federal government might keep its changes modest. </p>
<p>The federal teals, although they liaise and collaborate, are not one bloc, and their parliamentary votes have shown they are ideologically diverse. Labor’s lower house majority has meant they do not, to their disappointment, hold the balance of power there. </p>
<p>But they are proving adept at using the forums provided by parliament, making a contrast with many backbenchers from the major parties who, although they might do admirable work in their electorates and sometimes on committees, give the impression of being just numbers in their respective parties. Serious policy discussions in the Labor caucus or the Coalition party room are rare.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/former-treasury-head-ken-henry-says-we-need-big-bang-tax-reform-rather-than-incremental-change-201962">Former treasury head Ken Henry says we need 'big bang' tax reform rather than incremental change</a>
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<p>The backbenchers in the government and opposition are at their worst in the House of Representatives question time, which continues to be as uninformative as ever. </p>
<p>This government (like its predecessor) uses question time to parade what it is doing, with endless so-called Dorothy Dixers, which must be embarrassing to ask. Apart from questions on the Voice, the opposition asks variations on a common range of questions about cost of living, energy prices and the like, often with a slogan attached – “why do Australian families always pay more under Labor?” </p>
<p>The Coalition questions are predictable and repetitive so the prime minister and practised senior ministers have little trouble batting them away. In the last parliament, question time was frequently painful for the Morrison government; in this parliament, it is seldom difficult for the Albanese government.</p>
<p>Rarely does the opposition produce anything from its own independent research with which to surprise a potentially vulnerable minister. Nor does it effectively use question time to extract information. </p>
<p>Crossbenchers (not just teals) do seriously probe for information and sometimes test ministers. </p>
<p>Question time is frustrating, when you think what it could be. But a much more important fault in current federal politics is this: despite the general recognition that big economic reforms are needed, neither government nor opposition dares go there. </p>
<p>Taxation is the standout example. Over the coming years, total tax will have to increase if we continue to want the services from government we are demanding.</p>
<p>Some 59 leading economists were asked, in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/inheritance-taxes-resource-taxes-and-an-attack-on-negative-gearing-how-top-economists-would-raise-20-billion-per-year-202630">survey</a> by the Economic Society of Australia and The Conversation, for ways to find an extra $20 billion a year. They nominated new or increased land taxes, increased resources tax, winding back negative gearing, and broadening the GST as their top four options. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-trimming-the-tail-of-the-superannuation-tax-tiger-is-no-easy-task-200996">Grattan on Friday: Trimming the tail of the superannuation tax tiger is no easy task</a>
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<p>The Albanese government is hamstrung by its election promise to not increase taxes (apart from cracking down on multi-nationals’ tax avoidance). That’s for this term, but its narrow majority is likely to make Labor wary at the next election of bold tax reform promises. </p>
<p>One way of tackling the issue would be to have a comprehensive inquiry into the tax system, but treasurer Jim Chalmers has made it clear he doesn’t want one. Chalmers was a staffer to then treasurer Wayne Swan when the Henry tax inquiry was held and is seared by the experience – the aftermath didn’t go well for Labor. </p>
<p>Nor can we expect the opposition to lead the way on tax. The risks of being a big target are obvious. John Howard, having lived through the disaster of the Coalition under John Hewson offering major reform with its “Fightback” program at the 1993 election, pledged before the 1996 election “never ever” to introduce a GST, only to reverse that after he won government (and nearly lost the subsequent election). </p>
<p>Small target is today’s fashion, the road to power for Anthony Albanese and Chris Minns.</p>
<p>Teal crossbencher Allegra Spender is free of responsibility for a party, although she does have an eye on what the constituents in her Sydney electorate of Wentworth want her to do. She judges them open to a policy discussion about tax. </p>
<p>Spender on Friday hosts a roundtable on the tax system, to which she has attracted a who’s who of experts, including former treasury secretary Ken Henry (of THAT review) and Grattan Institute executive director Danielle Wood. </p>
<p>In her speech to the roundtable, Wood will say: “Australia’s tax system is failing us as a nation. It fails us because it cannot deliver the revenue we need to fund the services we expect. Australia has a revenue problem. Without policy change, we only have two solutions: let budget deficits grow ever larger, or continue to push up taxes on labour income.</p>
<p>"This is uncharted territory for tax reform: we need changes to the system that both boost revenue and improve the efficiency of tax collections. There is simply no opportunity to ‘buy reform’ through overly generous compensation packages – we need to raise more and we need to raise it smarter.”</p>
<p>At least roundtables like Spender’s provide an airing for initiatives that we should be considering. It’s just unfortunate the leading politicians in the major parties are not the ones giving them ventilation, let alone support.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202954/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The government is hamstrung by its election promise to not raise taxes or bring in new ones. That’s for this term, but its narrow majority is likely to make Labor wary at the next election of bold tax reform promises.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1835972022-05-22T08:54:11Z2022-05-22T08:54:11ZQueensland bucks the national trend (again) and this spells trouble for both the Liberals and ALP<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464653/original/file-20220522-42302-3tzg5v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There’s an ancient observance in Chinese history that an earthquake is an ominous omen of coming political change. When the ground shakes it’s said the heavens are withdrawing an emperor’s mandate and encouraging people to rise up against a dying dynasty.</p>
<p>A few days ago, a sizeable <a href="https://www.news.com.au/technology/science/magnitude-69-earthquake-strikes-macquarie-island-near-tasmania/news-story/5c0c66ddc4d56b6ef9534a7e7f589ca1">quake shook Macquarie Island </a> 1,500 km off Tasmania. While that island is hardly Canberra, Australia’s own electoral gods – the good burghers of the capital cities’ suburbs – nonetheless forced a tectonic shift in Australian politics on Saturday. </p>
<p>The aftershocks are likely to reverberate around the nation’s party system for years to come. Labor leader Anthony Albanese may still form majority government but, even if not, a few trends remain clear. </p>
<h2>Political realignments</h2>
<p>The first is the devastation of the Liberal Party. There was a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/party-totals">6% swing</a> against the Coalition but this is largely a Liberal, not Coalition or National party problem. That’s roughly the size of the quake that demolished Paul Keating’s Labor government in 1996 and delivered an electoral “realignment” where “aspirational” working class Australians first moved to the Liberal-National Coalition. </p>
<p>Saturday’s movement from the Liberals (and, to a lesser degree, Labor) to the teals and Greens across the suburbs suggests another political realignment has occurred.</p>
<p>A second trend is the electorate’s rejection of outgoing Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s personal “bulldozer” style – a leadership type he <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-confesses-to-being-a-bulldozer-suggests-hell-change-gears-183030">foolishly acknowledged</a> in the final week of the campaign. </p>
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<img alt="Scott Morrison crash tackles a child at the Devonport Strikers Soccer Ground." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464652/original/file-20220522-13-vnu8zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/464652/original/file-20220522-13-vnu8zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464652/original/file-20220522-13-vnu8zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464652/original/file-20220522-13-vnu8zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464652/original/file-20220522-13-vnu8zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464652/original/file-20220522-13-vnu8zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/464652/original/file-20220522-13-vnu8zf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Scott Morrison’s ‘bulldozer’ approach was rejected by voters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
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<p>But this is a Liberal problem as much as Morrison’s: when a party puts all its electoral eggs in the leadership basket (and encourages its leader to behave presidentially via <a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-wins-battle-to-head-off-rank-and-file-preselections-as-government-readies-to-deliver-vote-bait-budget-180100">“captain’s pick” pre-selections</a>), the party has nothing left to sell when those leadership eggs are broken. </p>
<h2>Existential crises</h2>
<p>Third, and even more critically, Saturday was a rejection of a Liberal party that had become so conservative in its social, climate and wage policy that voters in the inner and middle suburbs could no longer stomach it. Only in the outer suburbs, provinces and regions (especially in Queensland and Tasmania, and particularly among older, male and blue-and fluoro-collar voters) did the conservative vote hold up.</p>
<p>This leads to a fourth theme – an existential crisis as to who the Liberals are and whom they represent. With moderate and progressive Liberals, most commonly in safe and leafy Liberal seats, wiped out on Saturday in a red wave in Perth, a <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/green-wave-in-brisbane-gives-party-influence-over-labor-government-20220521-p5ancv.html">green wave in Brisbane</a> and a teal wave in Sydney and Melbourne, the next Liberal party room is likely to be the most conservative since the Menzies’ era. </p>
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<p>There is a great irony here. At a moment when (especially younger, educated urban and suburban) Australians have jumped to the centre-left and demanded action on climate change, cost-of-living and government integrity, a now-battered Liberal party – likely to be led by the very conservative Queenslander Peter Dutton – may be more resistant to the progressive zeitgeist than ever. </p>
<p>If the Liberals cannot reconcile its deepening conservatism – <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-27966-QLD.htm">based in Queensland</a> where the Liberal National Party lost <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-22/queensland-federal-election-greens-politics-analysis/101088630">only two seats in Brisbane</a> while maintaining all regional representation from Caboolture to Cape York – with an increasingly progressive electorate across Australia’s inner and middle suburbs, its longer-term prospects come into question. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-six-politics-experts-take-us-around-australia-in-the-final-week-of-the-campaign-183099">State of the states: six politics experts take us around Australia in the final week of the campaign</a>
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<p>Moreover, given the Liberals have seen support spin off in three directions – to Labor, the teals and to the populist right of Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer (especially in Queensland) – the party that has governed federally for 51 of the past 73 years might be out of office for more than a decade. </p>
<p>While the Senate count is far from complete, it already appears Hanson is struggling to be re-elected. It’s also evident that the Liberal Democrats under former premier Campbell Newman, as well as the United Australia Party, have spectacularly fizzled despite Palmer spending millions.</p>
<h2>Labor faces its own threats</h2>
<p>But Labor faces its own existential threat in suffering a primary vote locked in the low 30s across Australia, and in the high 20s in Queensland. With fewer than one in three Australians now opting for Labor – and just over one in four Queenslanders – hundreds of thousands of capital city dwellers now see the Greens and teals as the only forces able to deliver on climate, integrity and equality. </p>
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<p>This is certainly the case in Brisbane where the Greens – building on recent Brisbane City Council and state seat successes – have picked up the <a href="https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-27966-177.htm">western Brisbane electorate of Ryan</a>, and are set to win Griffith and Brisbane, too. If so, the departures of up-and-coming Labor MP Terri Butler and Liberal MP Trevor Evans will be a mammoth loss to the parliament. </p>
<p>Labor’s identity and mission are also in question. Albanese, while only the fourth Labor opposition leader to take office since the end of World War II, is the first to come to the top job without a comprehensive platform of policy reform. </p>
<p>Last, this election reveals that Australian voters, wracked with fears over the cost-of-living, unrepresentative leadership and weak climate policy, were indeed in the mood for change. But that change, toward the Greens and independents, took a turn few expected, and did not occur at all in regional Queensland.</p>
<p>Once again, the 2022 federal election reminds us that Queensland is indeed different.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183597/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Williams is a research associate with the T J Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>The aftershocks of the 2022 federal election are likely to reverberate around the nation’s party system for years to come.Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1490762020-11-01T06:06:26Z2020-11-01T06:06:26Z‘Three-peat Palaszczuk’: why Queenslanders swung behind Labor in historic election<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366842/original/file-20201101-23-opsb9u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=243%2C0%2C4600%2C3103&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland’s state election was always going to deliver an outcome for the record books.</p>
<p>This was Australia’s first poll at state or federal level contested by <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-is-making-election-history-with-two-women-leaders-so-why-is-the-campaign-focused-on-men-148261">two female leaders</a>. It was also the first state general election conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">Labor wins Queensland election, as Greens could win up to four seats</a>
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<p>Counting continues after <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/a-record-first-day-of-voting-sees-more-than-15-000-ballots-cast-per-hour-20201019-p566ky.html">record numbers of pre-poll</a> and postal votes, and a handful of seats remain in doubt. Regardless, the Labor government has <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">been returned</a> with what looks like an increased majority in a <a href="https://inqld.com.au/decision-2020/2020/10/31/palaszczuk-looks-headed-for-third-term-as-early-count-favours-government/">history-making third term</a> for Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.</p>
<p>This shores up her political stocks in the continued battle with federal and state governments over border closures. </p>
<h2>A tick of approval for Palaszczuk</h2>
<p>The election campaign was <a href="https://theconversation.com/as-the-queensland-campaign-passes-the-halfway-mark-the-election-is-still-labors-to-lose-148267">run of the mill</a> in many ways. It wasn’t so much dominated by the pandemic as framed by aspects of it, such as <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-queensland-border-reopening-with-nsw-decision-expected-friday-ahead-of-state-election/20fb3b1a-463e-4442-999e-26aa82db5da1">borders</a> and plans for <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-09/qld-gov-$1-billion-boost-education-state-election-campaign-2020/12732656">economic recovery</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk waving, claiming victory" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=361&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366835/original/file-20201101-19-is69of.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is back for a third term.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But Queenslanders, by and large, appear to have given Palaszczuk’s government a tick of approval for its health and economic responses to coronavirus. Swings <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results?filter=all&sort=az">to the government</a> were recorded in most parts of the state, with some surprising shifts towards Labor in areas like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-queensland-election-as-greens-could-win-up-to-four-seats-148715">Sunshine Coast</a>.</p>
<p>The result <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-this-queensland-election-is-different-states-are-back-at-the-forefront-of-political-attention-148260">reinforces the theory</a> pandemic conditions favour incumbents and, similarly, the major parties. Western Australia’s Mark McGowan, who like Palaszczuk was a target of Coalition criticism over closed borders, will take heart ahead of a state election early next year.</p>
<p>However, this was not a straightforward repeat of recent election outcomes in the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/nt-election-how-the-seats-fell-and-what-happens-now/12590840">Northern Territory</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-scores-its-sixth-act-election-victory-in-a-row-but-the-big-winners-are-the-greens-148259">ACT</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/jacinda-ardern-and-labour-returned-in-a-landslide-5-experts-on-a-historic-new-zealand-election-148245">New Zealand</a>. Rather, this election panned out in ways particular to Queensland’s regional diversity, but still with ramifications for outside the state.</p>
<h2>One Nation, Palmer barely register</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.news.com.au/national/queensland/politics/qld-election-2020-premier-annastacia-palaszczuk-flies-into-key-battleground-in-states-north/news-story/ffb92db7a47f1ba9eac93e18d4695675">expected battleground</a> over government-held marginal seats around Townsville and Cairns didn’t eventuate, with these seats holding firm against a concerted effort to get rid of Labor incumbents.</p>
<p>The LNP opposition’s pitch for a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-21/qld-election-2020-lnp-townsville-youth-curfew-crime-plan/12789276">crime crackdown</a>” in the state’s north and plans for a youth curfew didn’t resonate, as at the last state election in 2017. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-lnp-wants-a-curfew-for-kids-but-evidence-suggests-this-wont-reduce-crime-148529">Queensland's LNP wants a curfew for kids, but evidence suggests this won't reduce crime</a>
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<p>The headline story of the election was a dramatic collapse in the <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/queesland-election-2020-one-nation-and-clive-palmer-united-party-primary-votes-collapse/a17782e7-0303-4713-bf2e-a30fc47d46f6">One Nation vote</a>. The party nominated an unprecedented <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-24/who-will-make-up-queenslands-potentially-powerful-crossbench/12804898">90 candidates</a>, yet leader Pauline Hanson was <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2020/qld-election-please-explain-where-pauline-hanson-is/news-story/b499312b0043496c1de365b76b31977d">barely sighted</a> during the campaign. What messages did emerge from Hanson’s camp — largely criticisms of COVID-19 measures — didn’t wash with an electorate seeking leadership and protection through the crisis.</p>
<p>Notably, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party hardly registered, with <a href="https://results.elections.qld.gov.au/state2020">about 0.6%</a> of the popular vote. This follows another big spend on often <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/oct/28/clive-palmer-pumps-46m-into-his-spoiler-political-party-ahead-of-queensland-election">misleading advertising</a>. The electorate may have woken up to Palmer’s “spoiler” agenda, with his investment perhaps only resulting in a push for stricter truth in political advertising rules. </p>
<p>There are now realistic doubts over the ability of either Palmer or Hanson to recover electorally from these setbacks. For its efforts, One Nation did hold on to its sole seat in north Queensland. Katter’s Australian Party, likewise, retained its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/results/party-totals">three northern seats</a>.</p>
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<img alt="Clive Palmer walks away from a press conference." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=389&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366844/original/file-20201101-13-1qbnf8v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=489&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party failed to pick up a single seat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
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<p>The single biggest upset result — although widely expected —– came in South Brisbane, where Labor’s former Deputy Premier Jackie Trad <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-31/qld-state-election-2020-jackie-trad-defeated-south-brisbane-seat/12832690">lost the seat</a> she’s held since 2012. A rise in Greens support in inner-Brisbane suburbs, as seen in other capital cities, was long viewed as a threat to Trad’s grip on the former Labor stronghold.</p>
<p>This result shows there are subtexts to this election result, and it is not all about the pandemic. For 30 years, Labor has often won state elections on its ability to hold onto “<a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/lnp-fails-to-crack-fortress-brisbane-20090322-geaxgn.html">fortress Brisbane</a>”. However, the party can’t take that position for granted now.</p>
<p>Even with the LNP’s continuing inability to bridge the Brisbane bulkhead, Labor can’t rest on its laurels after this win. Inner-Brisbane electorates like <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/coop">Cooper</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/mcco">McConnel</a> will be next targets for the Greens, whose support at this election was concentrated in the capital where they now hold two seats.</p>
<h2>On track to beat Beattie</h2>
<p>Palaszczuk is now the most successful female leader in Australian history, as the first to win three elections. If she serves the full four-year term, she’ll be Labor’s second-longest serving premier in this state, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-01/qld-state-election-labor-wins-annastacia-palaszczuk-elected/12834982">surpassing Peter Beattie</a>. Labor by then will have governed Queensland for 30 of the past 35 years.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-this-queensland-election-is-different-states-are-back-at-the-forefront-of-political-attention-148260">Why this Queensland election is different — states are back at the forefront of political attention</a>
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<p>This win cements the premier’s authority in her party, which is particularly important when it <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/not-something-to-boast-of-scott-morrison-criticises-annastacia-palaszczuk-over-queensland-border-closures">comes to relations</a> between her administration and the federal government. Discussions over states border closures and other pandemic responses at the National Cabinet will be watched with renewed interest.</p>
<p>At the same time, the election result raises pressing questions for defeated Opposition Leader <a href="https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6206034337001">Deb Frecklington</a> and the LNP. After recent <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-15/deb-frecklington-facing-qld-lnp-leadership-fight-amid-civil-war/12353990">inner-party turmoil</a> agitating against Frecklington’s leadership, it’s expected there will be jostling for new party leadership.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland LNP leader Deb Frecklington." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366845/original/file-20201101-19-436rwy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Deb Frecklington has signalled she wants to stay on as LNP leader, but may not get that chance.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Glenn Hunt/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>As now seems <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nationals-need-its-own-voice-canavan/news-story/4ea7e1b7ef4192e6f07b141eb58b842a">ritual after state elections</a>, calls are expected for the unsuccessful LNP to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajph.12636">de-merge</a>. The often uneasy marriage of Queensland’s Liberals and Nationals — apparently at risk of a lurch to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/06/christian-soldiers-and-climate-deniers-inside-the-fight-for-control-of-the-queensland-lnp">arch-conservative right</a> — appears incapable of broadening its support in both the state’s capital and the far north simultaneously.</p>
<p>As the final results come in, they will continue to provide important lessons for both the federal Coalition, as well as federal Labor, in how best to appeal to Queensland’s varied constituency.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/149076/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Chris Salisbury is affiliated with Queensland's TJ Ryan Foundation.</span></em></p>Queensland’s result reinforces the theory that pandemic conditions favour incumbents. It also deals a blow for One Nation and Clive Palmer.Chris Salisbury, Research Assistant, School of Political Science & International Studies, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1469272020-10-04T18:55:31Z2020-10-04T18:55:31ZQueensland’s unpredictable election begins. Expect a close campaign focused on 3 questions<p>The Queensland election campaign officially begins this week, with the government entering <a href="https://www.forgov.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/procurement/pan-22-caretaker-conventions.pdf?v=1599437891">caretaker mode</a> on Tuesday, and the election set for <a href="https://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/election-events/2020-state-general-election">October 31</a>. </p>
<p>But the crystal ball for this election, which will see a number of significant firsts, is frustratingly cloudy. </p>
<h2>Palaszczuk vs Frecklington</h2>
<p>This is the state’s first election for a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-04-05/four-year-fixed-parliamentary-term-referendum-declared-yes-ecq/7299386">four-year fixed term</a> of parliament since 1893. It’s also the first occasion at which the leaders of the two major parties — Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk and the Liberal-National Party’s (LNP) Deb Frecklington — are women.</p>
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<img alt="People voting at polling booths in school hall." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361001/original/file-20201001-18-clf7gh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Queenslanders will be voting in a government for four years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Albert Perez/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Meanwhile, apart from August’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-election-is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-the-answer-to-a-struggling-economy-144274">Northern Territory election</a>, Queensland’s poll will be the first major electoral test of any Australian jurisdiction since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. </p>
<p>All of this makes the election extremely difficult to forecast, especially given the <a href="https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/yougov-poll-queensland-labor-governments-vote-shrivels/news-story/04e693d3de28af07ec51dad6d4b58728">marked difference</a> in how voters rate the parties, as opposed to their leaders. </p>
<p>That’s before you throw in the pull of four significant minor parties and their unpredictable preference flows.</p>
<h2>A change of government is possible</h2>
<p>Even so, we might say Labor is Queensland’s “natural” party of government, given it has held office for 26 of the past 31 years, and for 70 of the past 105 years (since the birth of the modern party system).</p>
<p>This stands in sharp contrast to Queenslanders’ predilection to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-19/election-results-how-labor-lost-queensland/11122998">back conservative parties </a> at federal elections. In 2019, for example, the state <a href="https://results.aec.gov.au/24310/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-24310-QLD.htm">swung toward</a> the Morrison-led Coalition at a rate about four times the Australian average.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-to-all-those-quexiteers-dont-judge-try-to-understand-us-117502">Queensland to all those #Quexiteers: don't judge, try to understand us</a>
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<p>Heading into the election, Labor holds a razor-thin buffer, with just 48 seats in the 93-seat parliament. A tiny after-preference <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/pendulum#Labor">swing of 0.7%</a> would see Labor lose two seats and its majority. </p>
<p>The LNP, currently on 38 seats, must win nine additional seats, via a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2020/guide/pendulum#Liberal%20National">3.4% swing</a> to form majority government. </p>
<p>Ironically, that’s virtually identical to the <a href="https://antonygreen.com.au/northern-territory-election-analysis-of-results/">3.5% swing</a> against the NT Labor government last month.</p>
<p>In June, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-latest-labor-trails-federally-and-in-queensland-biden-increases-lead-over-trump-140247">YouGov</a> poll had the LNP in front of Labor, 52% to 48%, two-party preferred. In July, <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll">Newspoll</a> had the LNP ahead, 51% to 49%. </p>
<p>The implications are clear: victory for the LNP is eminently possible. </p>
<h2>A hung parliament is also on the cards</h2>
<p>With polls putting Labor’s primary vote <a href="https://theconversation.com/polls-latest-labor-trails-federally-and-in-queensland-biden-increases-lead-over-trump-140247">as low as 32%</a>, preferences will be crucial and minor parties will once again play a significant role. </p>
<p>Because of recently introduced <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-18/political-donations-capped-queensland-lnp-labor-laws-elections/12368128">election spending caps</a>, Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is expected to walk away empty-handed. This comes after Palmer donated <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-big-money-influenced-the-2019-federal-election-and-what-we-can-do-to-fix-the-system-131141">almost $84 million</a> to his own campaign during the 2019 federal election. </p>
<p>But with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation likely to maintain its lone seat, Katter’s Australian Party its three, and the Greens almost certain to double their representation to two, a hung parliament – a repeat of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">2015-17 term</a> – is also a real possibility.</p>
<h2>Referendum on three questions</h2>
<p>For these reasons and more, the political eyes of Australia will be on Queensland on October 31. And it will invariably be a referendum on three questions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361003/original/file-20201001-16-nspkao.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Annastacia Palaszczuk has been premier since 2015.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The first is whom Queenslanders trust more as their premier for the next four years. </p>
<p>In late July, <a href="https://theconversation.com/coalition-maintains-newspoll-lead-federally-and-in-queensland-bidens-lead-over-trump-narrows-144193">Newspoll found</a> 81% of those surveyed approved of Palaszczuk’s handling of the pandemic, with 57% preferring her as premier. Just 26% preferred Frecklington. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Queensland opposition leader Deb Frecklington." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361005/original/file-20201001-24-2akze7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Deb Frecklington took over as opposition leader in December 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dan Peled/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But a late September, Newspoll saw a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/twothirds-of-queenslanders-back-annastacia-palaszczuk-as-state-election-looms/news-story/46b9fb24eb42bf41a50719db7f132094">marked dip</a> in Palaszczuk’s ratings, with 69% of respondents saying the premier was performing well over coronavirus. </p>
<h2>Health vs economy</h2>
<p>A second question is which public policy frame — public health or economic buoyancy — do Queenslanders rate more highly? This comes down to simple arithmetic. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/did-someone-say-election-how-politics-met-pandemic-to-create-fortress-queensland-144067">Did someone say 'election'?: how politics met pandemic to create 'fortress Queensland'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If those angry at <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/aug/05/queensland-to-enforce-hard-border-closure-with-nsw-and-act-from-saturday">hard border closures</a> and damaged hospitality, <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/tourism-industry-warns-second-queensland-lockdown-would-break-our-spirit-20200727-p55fsu.html">tourism</a> and other small businesses outweigh those grateful for a government that has overseen just <a href="https://www.qld.gov.au/health/conditions/health-alerts/coronavirus-covid-19/current-status/statistics">1,160 coronavirus cases</a> and six deaths, then Palaszczuk has a problem. </p>
<p>But with border and pub relaxations <a href="https://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/health-safety/qld-announces-immediate-easing-of-restrictions-as-road-map-to-normal-is-released/news-story/34a2f6de1243a54cfc3b7d1abaf7db98">introduced last week</a>, even that anger might be quelled by election day. </p>
<h2>COVID recovery</h2>
<p>If not, these concerns would be compounded by a third question: which party do Queenslanders trust more to navigate the state out of the COVID-19 economic quagmire? </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Hand sanitisers on a table at a polling booth." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361002/original/file-20201001-24-tnugx1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Queensland will be voting in the middle of a pandemic.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Albert Perez/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Labor has reason to feel secure here, despite state debt <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-07/queensland-treasurer-delivers-fiscal-budget-outlook-coronavirus/12628358">nearing $100 billion</a> and an <a href="https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP%2FLFR_SAFOUR%2FLFR_UnemploymentRate">unemployment rate</a> above the national average. In June, a YouGov poll found Labor enjoyed an <a href="https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/06/06/yougov-galaxy-52-48-lnp-queensland/">11 point lead</a> on the question of preferred economic managers. That figure alone has panicked LNP strategists. </p>
<p>But since then, the LNP has come out with economic guns blazing. It has re-embraced the <a href="https://www.deb2020.com.au/new-bradfield-scheme-will-supercharge-the-north/">1930s Bradfield Scheme</a> — a largely debunked populist dream to divert northern rivers westward. More pragmatically, the LNP also launched a <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-27/lnp-promises-33-billion-spend-on-15-year-bruce-highway-plan/12708342">$33 billion plan</a> to upgrade the entire Bruce Highway from Gympie to Cairns. </p>
<p>Given more than half the state’s seats are outside Greater Brisbane, this policy pays the sort of regional homage that wins elections in Queensland. </p>
<h2>The Prime Minister will be watching</h2>
<p>Beyond Queensland, who will be watching the Queensland poll most closely? </p>
<p>Morrison found his <a href="https://news.griffith.edu.au/2020/07/07/how-qld-delivered-scott-morrisons-miracle-election/">way back to government</a> last year via regional Queensland, which is now torn between border closures and economic survival. He will certainly be keeping a close eye on the contest, even if it is <a href="https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/queensland-government-finally-sets-date-for-opening-of-nsw-border--but-theres-a-catch-c-1359240">impossible</a> to visit in person.</p>
<p>There are just four weeks to go.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/146927/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Williams is a Research Associate with the T.J. Ryan Foundation</span></em></p>As Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk and the LNP’s Deb Frecklington vie for Queenslanders’ votes, leadership, COVID and economic recovery are set to dominate debate.Paul Williams, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1108872019-03-07T23:49:30Z2019-03-07T23:49:30ZAfter years of vicious culture wars, hope may yet triumph over hate in Australian politics<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261156/original/file-20190227-150724-41h5qv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=383%2C5%2C3173%2C1988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Wes Mountain/The Conversation</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>This is part of a major series called Advancing Australia, in which leading academics examine the key issues facing Australia in the lead-up to the 2019 federal election and beyond. Read the other pieces in the series <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/advancing-australia-66135">here</a>.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>For a generation, politics has been wearying for those of good heart and outright damaging to those targeted in the culture wars unleashed in the 1990s. How this happened, and whether it will continue, are questions pressing hard upon us. </p>
<p>The traditional post-war political struggle pitted class and concerns about inequality, opportunity and redistribution against capital and concerns about profits, property rights and the shoring up of traditional social structures. </p>
<p>Over the past two decades, the moorings of this “left” versus “right” paradigm of political competition have morphed somewhat – in the latter case, drastically. </p>
<p>The “left”, traditionally organised around better pay and conditions for working people, has incorporated post-materialist political concerns around identity (most recently, for example, marriage equality rights) and the environment. The Australian Labor Party has continued to straddle the tensions to which this occasionally gives rise, first evident in the 1970s and increasingly significant in the new millennium. The proposed Adani coal mine provides the latest example of this.</p>
<p>The founding of the Australian Greens in 1992 was a structural expression of this development. The party provided a political home for progressives unwilling to practise a politics involving the trade-offs and compromises necessary to achieve government in its own right. The downside is that the Greens mostly acquire influence but not power.</p>
<p>These two main parties on the “left” mirror the existence of the two main parties – the Liberal Party and National Party – on the “right”. But, unlike the Liberals, who rely on the Nationals to form coalition governments, Labor generally returns enough members at elections to govern without needing another party’s support. The exceptions to this are the ACT and Tasmania, where proportional representation systems deliver more minor party MPs than elsewhere.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-morrison-governments-biggest-economic-problem-climate-change-denial-105125">The Morrison government's biggest economic problem? Climate change denial</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Two decades of race-baiting politics</h2>
<p>The “right” over the last two decades in Australia has imported the US Republican Party playbook. President Richard Nixon’s <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/made-by-history/wp/2018/01/10/how-donald-trump-put-an-end-to-the-gops-southern-strategy/?utm_term=.7a32f3baeb70">“Southern Strategy”</a> exploited race in the late 1960s to realign white working-class Democratic Party supporters in the American south with the Republican Party.</p>
<p>In the mid-1990s, the Liberal prime minister, John Howard, followed suit. “Dogwhistling” on race recruited traditional white working-class Labor voters to the Liberal-and-National-Party-voting <a href="http://insidestory.org.au/howards-victories-which-voters-switched-which-issues-mattered-and-why/">“Howard’s battlers”</a> camp.</p>
<p>From 2001 Howard used the so-called “war on terror” to heighten racial tensions for political gain more explicitly. His government broke from previously bipartisan migration policies to harness migration to national security concerns well beyond what was necessary to actually address those concerns. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/australian-politics-explainer-the-mv-tampa-and-the-transformation-of-asylum-seeker-policy-74078">Tampa and the “children overboard” scandal</a> were prominent examples. Recent manifestations include the whipping up of unfounded fears about ethnic gang violence in Melbourne and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/doctors-reject-claims-of-flood-of-asylum-seeker-transfers-20190214-p50xwg.html">flagrant accusations about the likely consequences of the “Medevac” bill</a> passed by parliament against the government’s will in February 2019. </p>
<p>Australian politics has been hostage for a generation to the divisive, racialised politics practised by Howard and his Liberal and National Party (LNP) successors, wedging Labor, which struggled to refocus the agenda beyond it.</p>
<h2>Right’s strategy looks to be losing its sting</h2>
<p>However, 2019 may well be the year this long cycle of race-baiting politics from the “right” in Australia exhausts itself. The Morrison government’s oversight of inhumane practises in offshore immigration detention centres, and the <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/policy/foreign-affairs/bad-debts-failed-contracts-across-asia-trail-manus-contractor-paladin-20190211-h1b4kh">“no bid” tendering of responsibility for some of these to dubious corporate entities</a>, are becoming perceived proxies for incompetent government.</p>
<p>Despite recent efforts to recharge it, the fear factor inculcated by the LNP around migration seems to have dissipated. Several <a href="https://theconversation.com/liberals-trounced-in-huge-wentworth-swing-bringing-a-hung-parliament-105351">moderate conservatives have been elected to the crossbench</a> who in the pre-Howard era would have stood as Liberal candidates rather than as independents. They are living proof that even many on the “right” have little stomach for playing Nixon-style politics in Australia any more, even as it flourishes anew in the US through President Donald J. Trump. </p>
<p>This shift occurs in the context of the LNP recently being seen to be wrong-footed on several totemic policy issues: the environment, gender equity and gay rights. With saturation support from Rupert Murdoch-owned News Corporation media outlets and several commercial radio shock jocks, climate change denial, the trivialisation of gender equity issues and refusal of marriage equality for the LGBTQI community were consistent political winners for the LNP – until the moment they were not. </p>
<p>Along with the diminishing dividends of the LNP’s race-baiting for political gain, this hints at the renewal of Australian voters’ better instincts. The LNP tropes of the last two decades seem exhausted. </p>
<h2>Are we at a turning point?</h2>
<p>The successful plebiscite vote for <a href="https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-in-2017-australia-has-delivered-to-the-lgbti-community-but-failed-its-first-peoples-87633">marriage equality in 2017</a> may well have been a turning point. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-woman-problem-no-the-liberals-have-a-man-problem-and-they-need-to-fix-it-102339">revolt of female Liberal MPs</a> over their treatment at the hands of male colleagues may be another.</p>
<p>Increasingly vocal dissidents within the wider LNP urging action on climate change is a further hopeful sign. Prime-age cabinet ministers like Kelly O’Dwyer, who <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/minister-kelly-o-dwyer-lashes-homophobic-anti-women-liberals-in-her-party">lamented last year to Liberal colleagues</a> that they were widely seen as “homophobic, anti-women climate deniers”, are voting with their feet and <a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-odwyers-decision-turns-the-spotlight-onto-bishop-110159">departing parliament at the next election</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-woman-problem-no-the-liberals-have-a-man-problem-and-they-need-to-fix-it-102339">A 'woman problem'? No, the Liberals have a 'man problem', and they need to fix it</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<p>Together, this points to a possible sea change – a welcome one – in Australian politics after a long, acrid 20-plus years of disrespect, division and denial.</p>
<p>A Labor Party strengthened by rules reinforcing, rather than allowing the undermining of, the leader has arguably been central in this shift. Internecine warfare has been replaced by steady attention to policy issues rather than questions of leadership personnel. </p>
<p>Secure in his position, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten goes to the election confidently advancing some politically risky policies on negative gearing, dividend imputation and humane treatment of refugees. The quality of the Labor frontbench is as strong as at any time since the Hawke-Keating era. </p>
<p>The nascent appetite in the electorate for hope over hate, for forward momentum over susceptibility to artificially stoked fear, favours a change to government capable of decisive action on the big neglected issues, of which climate action is second to none.</p>
<p>The successful reframing of Australian politics from fear to hope is a mighty challenge, one undertaken against the massive dead weight of Australian media influence reinforcing our baser instincts over the past 20 years. It seems to be under way. One can only hope it succeeds.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/110887/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Wallace receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>On racist dog-whistling and on climate change, the “right” now finds itself on the wrong side of public opinion – so the acrimonious public debates on ideological lines may be coming to an end.Chris Wallace, ARC DECRA Fellow, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/870162017-11-24T02:50:36Z2017-11-24T02:50:36ZFactCheck: did the Northbridge WA curfew see a ‘dramatic drop’ in crime?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193702/original/file-20171108-6725-1jxno3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A curfew was introduced in Northbridge WA as part of a wider push aimed at protecting child welfare and making the suburb safer.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kaex0r414/279185079/in/photolist-qETZR-7e5PM1-9hfn35-7MiDHJ-7MeG8e-esJFNv-CL8zM-esMX3j-7MiDDG-7MeG9a-GLrgtx-sD87e1-smHr2G-7e5LNQ-pGTL6D-as3UaR-eXF6ix-8AgpEc-8AgpUD-8AjudL-bvVaq1-9Thyue-sDj68z-KhZvyS-WHNQpW-9KJ3BN-9KJ3EJ-9KJ3sy-egnwuG-KiESiP-eggLGk-efcsbt-iVAL-egnwmE-iVAM-efi9ym-efcqY4-CaR3r-egnwpy-efcnAD-egnw3h-mCoJ-FKZVyv-egnwab-3t5Gkf-gjzm84-8dGWdt-8t945o-y7f2H-8t63jR">kaex0r/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>WA Labor Premier Geoff Gallop actually put in place a curfew in the Northbridge precinct in 2003 and it has been enforced ever since. The Northbridge example saw a dramatic drop in crime and a reduction in the anti-social behaviour of young people.</p>
<p><strong>– Liberal National Party of Queensland leader Tim Nicholls, quoted in a <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2017/queensland-election-2017-lnp-plans-curfew-for-townsville-youths/news-story/a762977ad741318e7fdc013a17672f72">campaign announcement</a>, November 2, 2017</strong> </p>
</blockquote>
<p>If elected, Queensland’s Liberal National Party has said it will <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/lnp/pages/3888/attachments/original/1509525562/Policy_North_Queensland_Crime_Action_Plan.pdf?1509525562">trial a curfew</a> banning children under the age of 16 from being on some Townsville streets without adult supervision after 10pm.</p>
<p>Announcing the policy, Liberal National Party leader Tim Nicholls <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2017/queensland-election-2017-lnp-plans-curfew-for-townsville-youths/news-story/a762977ad741318e7fdc013a17672f72">said</a> the introduction of a youth curfew in the Western Australian suburb of Northbridge in 2003 had seen a “dramatic drop in crime and a reduction in the anti-social behaviour of young people”.</p>
<p>Is that right?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>A spokesperson for Tim Nicholls pointed The Conversation to a <a href="https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Carpenter/2006/12/Northbridge-curfew-achieves-reduction-in-juvenile-anti-social-behaviour.aspx">2006 media release</a> from the then-WA Labor premier, Alan Carpenter.</p>
<p>Carpenter had stated that in the three years following its introduction, the curfew had reduced anti-social behaviour among juveniles, and reduced the number of young people apprehended or charged by police. </p>
<p>The statement was based on a policy review conducted by the Office of Crime Prevention. That report is no longer available online, and WA Police and the Liberal National Party were unable to provide a copy.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>There is no evidence to support Tim Nicholls’ claim that the youth curfew in Northbridge WA “saw a dramatic drop in crime”.</p>
<p>Reported crime in Northbridge actually <em>increased</em> in the four years following the introduction of the curfew in 2003. </p>
<p>Since 2007 there has been a reduction in crime in Northbridge, but this is also true of neighbouring suburbs that have never had a curfew.</p>
<p>Police data and interviews with local stakeholders <em>do</em> indicate a reduction in anti-social behaviour in Northbridge. However, academic research suggests this is due to young people congregating in other suburbs where there is less surveillance.</p>
<h2>What was introduced in Northbridge, WA?</h2>
<p>In June 2003, the then-WA Labor premier, Geoff Gallop, introduced a <a href="https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Gallop/2003/06/Premier-unveils-Northbridge-curfew-policy.aspx">“curfew policy”</a> for the Perth suburb of Northbridge. The policy was introduced as part of a broader suite of measures aimed at protecting child welfare and making the inner-city suburb and entertainment precinct safer. </p>
<p>Under the Northbridge curfew as it was introduced in 2003: </p>
<ul>
<li>“pre-teenage” children not under the immediate care of a parent or responsible adult were not allowed on the streets of Northbridge after dark, and</li>
<li>a 10pm restriction applied for unsupervised children aged 13 to 15.</li>
</ul>
<p>Between 2003 and 2011 <a href="https://www.dcp.wa.gov.au/Documents/YoungPeopleInNorthbridgeProject.pdf">that curfew</a> was managed by successive Coalition and Labor state government agencies, as a formal collaboration between the WA police (in particular the Juvenile Aid Group), the Department of Child Protection, Mission Australia, and several other agencies.</p>
<p>In 2012, the task was <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajs4.17/full">outsourced</a> to <a href="http://sd.missionaustralia.com.au/293-youthbeat-wa">Mission Australia</a>. </p>
<p>Whether the <em>exact</em> terms of the original curfew are still in place is less clear. A spokesperson for WA Police told The Conversation there was “no ‘curfew’ as such in place in Northbridge”.</p>
<p>However, the spokesperson confirmed that WA Police, together with Mission Australia, the Department of Child Protection and Family Support and Noongar Outreach Services, do continue to focus on young people on the street at night who may be “deemed in need of care and protection” – particularly in the entertainment precincts of Perth and Northbridge.</p>
<p>Mission Australia WA state director Jo Sadler told The Conversation its case managers engage with young people who have been “picked up by police for being on the street at night”. </p>
<p>There has been debate about the use of the term “curfew” in this situation. But it’s largely a <a href="https://www.indigenousjustice.gov.au/resources/evaluation-of-indigenous-justice-programs-project-d-safe-aboriginal-youth-patrol-programs-in-new-south-wales-and-northbridge-policy-and-juvenile-aid-group-in-western-australia/">technical debate</a>, and given that most people, including Nicholls, consistently refer to “a curfew”, for the purposes of this FactCheck, we will do the same.</p>
<p>It’s important to note that throughout the years, the curfew has not been <em>solely</em> about getting children and young people off the streets. Community agencies <a href="https://www.dcp.wa.gov.au/Documents/YoungPeopleInNorthbridgeProject.pdf">have</a> and continue to assist in ensuring children are reconnected with their families or taken to safe accommodation, and offered support to address the underlying issues that may have led to them being unsupervised at night.</p>
<p>You can read more about the support services offered <a href="http://sd.missionaustralia.com.au/293-youthbeat-wa">here</a>. </p>
<h2>Was there a ‘dramatic drop in crime’ following the Northbridge curfew?</h2>
<p>To test Nicholls’ claim we can look at Western Australian Police Force <a href="https://www.police.wa.gov.au/Crime/Crime-Statistics-Portal">crime incident data</a>. This includes the number of incidents of robbery (theft from a person), burglary (breaking and entering and stealing), graffiti, assault, and theft of a motor vehicle.</p>
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<p>The data show that crime actually <em>increased</em> in Northbridge following the introduction of the curfew in 2003. </p>
<p>In 2002 there were 901 crimes reported across the different categories. This rose to 1,508 in 2007, mainly driven by an increase in assaults and a spike in reported graffiti.</p>
<p>After peaking in 2007, recorded crime decreased again and is now below the levels of 2003. The total for 2016 was 539 crimes.</p>
<p>Those are the raw numbers. But I’ve also examined the monthly counts of crime using an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_integrated_moving_average">ARIMA analysis</a> – which accounts for seasonality and trends in the data – to give us a better picture.</p>
<p>This analysis also shows no evidence that crime decreased after June 2003, when the curfew was introduced. There is an indication that crime – and in particular robbery – declined significantly in Northbridge six years later, in 2008. (We look at robbery offences specifically because this is an offence that’s likely to occur in a public space.) </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.dcp.wa.gov.au/Documents/YoungPeopleInNorthbridgeProject.pdf">2011 report</a> from the WA Department of Child Protection also highlighted the decrease in robbery offences between 2007-2008 and 2009-2010. </p>
<p>However, this trend was reflective of a broader reduction in robbery in Western Australia. </p>
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<p>The reduction in crime was also evident in nearby areas, including the suburb of Perth (which we’ll refer to as Perth). Similar to Northbridge, Perth experienced high levels of crime in 2004. After experiencing some reprieve in 2005 and 2006, crime in Perth peaked in 2007. As with Northbridge, crime levels dropped steadily after 2007 - despite there being no curfew in Perth.</p>
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<p>Crime incident data isn’t perfect. It doesn’t capture all offending. Some minor offences are not recorded by police – instead the individual is given a warning. And some victims don’t report their victimisation.</p>
<p>But the data as it stands does not support claims of a “dramatic drop in crime” in Northbridge following the introduction of the curfew.</p>
<h2>Was there a reduction in anti-social behaviour?</h2>
<p>Crime Stoppers Western Australia defines “anti-social behaviour” as that which “disturbs, annoys or interferes with someone’s ability to go about their lawful business”. You can read the types of behaviours that meet the definition <a href="https://www.crimestopperswa.com.au/keeping-safe/anti-social-behaviour/">here</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Carpenter/2006/12/Northbridge-curfew-achieves-reduction-in-juvenile-anti-social-behaviour.aspx">2006 media release</a>
from then-WA Labor premier Alan Carpenter said the state government’s Northbridge curfew had “cut the number of unsupervised juveniles roaming the area at night by 35% and reduced the level of anti-social behaviour by juveniles”.</p>
<p>Carpenter claimed there had been a reduction in: </p>
<ul>
<li>the number of young people apprehended or charged by police, and</li>
<li>interactions between the WA Police Juvenile Aid Group and unsupervised young people. </li>
</ul>
<p>Unfortunately, the report cited in the media release is <a href="http://www.crimeprevention.wa.gov.au/">no longer available online</a>. The Conversation requested a copy from WA Police, but a spokesperson said the department couldn’t locate a copy.</p>
<p>However, more up-to-date figures from the WA Police were provided in a detailed <a href="https://www.indigenousjustice.gov.au/resources/evaluation-of-indigenous-justice-programs-project-d-safe-aboriginal-youth-patrol-programs-in-new-south-wales-and-northbridge-policy-and-juvenile-aid-group-in-western-australia/">2014 report</a> into the Northbridge Policy Project - of which the curfew was one part.</p>
<p>The report confirmed that the number of young people who came into contact with police in Northbridge was lower after the policy was in place.</p>
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<p>The authors of the 2014 report concluded that <em>overall</em> the Northbridge Policy Project had reduced anti-social and nuisance behaviour perpetrated by young people in Northbridge.</p>
<p>The report’s conclusions were based on the police data as well as interviews with stakeholders including policymakers, business operators, and representatives of youth organisations in Northbridge.</p>
<p>Although the report concluded that anti-social behaviour in Northbridge had declined, the authors noted that many of the children and young people were congregating in other nearby areas, particularly the suburb of Burswood – which is a short train ride from Northbridge and where there was less surveillance.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajs4.17/full">academic review published in 2017</a> also reported on the displacement of young people to other suburbs. The authors wrote that the: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… previously documented successes of the curfew for crime protection and child protection had been achieved through displacement of young people to other locations that neither reduced crime nor increase safety.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>What’s the bottom line?</h2>
<p>There is no evidence that the curfew reduced crime in Northbridge. Recorded crime actually increased in the four years after the curfew was introduced. Crime began to fall consistently after 2007, but similar reductions were seen in neighbouring suburbs that did not have a curfew.</p>
<p>The evidence <em>does</em> indicate a reduction in the number of young people coming into contact with police in Northbridge. However, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajs4.17/full">academic research suggests</a> this is due to the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-05/review-of-curfew-needed-as-new-hotspots-emerge/4735266">displacement</a> of young people to other suburbs.</p>
<p>It’s difficult to isolate the impact of the curfew from the other aspects of the Northbridge Policy Project or indeed from <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/crime_community/crimeprevention/localgovt/wa.html">other strategies</a> that were implemented by the state government and Perth council after 2003. These included the <a href="https://www.perth.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/Safe%20City%20brochure.pdf">SafeCity Strategy</a>, which involved increased CCTV surveillance, lighting and roaming security officers.</p>
<p>However, Nicholls’ claim that the curfew resulted in “a dramatic drop in crime and a reduction in the anti-social behaviour of young people” is not supported by the available evidence. <strong>– Renee Zahnow</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This FactCheck is a thorough review of the available evidence and its conclusions are sound. </p>
<p>Empirical studies into curfews have been inconclusive, with some suggesting that they have <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0002716202250944?journalCode=anna&">little impact</a> on crime reduction, while others suggest they can have a <a href="https://eml.berkeley.edu/%7Epkline/papers/curfews_resubmit.pdf">positive effect</a> in reducing crime.</p>
<p>In the current case, the data would support the conclusion that the Northbridge curfew had little effect on crime. <strong>– Terry Goldsworthy</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking the Queensland election. If you see a ‘fact’ you’d like checked, let us know by sending a note via <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>, <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> or <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a>. The Conversation <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversation-is-fact-checking-the-queensland-election-and-we-want-to-hear-from-you-86779">thanks James Cook University</a> for its support.</strong></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87016/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tim Nicholls said the introduction of a youth curfew in the WA suburb of Northbridge ‘saw a dramatic drop in crime and a reduction in the anti-social behaviour of young people’. Is that right?Renee Zahnow, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute for Social Science Research, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/564452016-04-18T20:11:58Z2016-04-18T20:11:58ZNature is neglected in this election campaign – at its and our own peril<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/119068/original/image-20160418-23629-mop0l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Everlastings in the Australian Alps. But will they be?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/government-blackmailed-university-20110305-1biyv.html">John O'Neill/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The electioneering has <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-certain-australians-off-to-the-polls-on-july-2-for-double-dissolution-57991">begun</a>. In a campaign set to be dominated by economic issues, the Coalition and Labor are locking horns over who can best manage our finances, protect jobs and make housing more affordable. The Greens predictably decry the major parties, including their <a href="https://theconversation.com/ideas-for-australia-a-six-point-plan-for-getting-climate-policy-back-on-track-56743">cavalier climate-change policies</a>. </p>
<p>These are important issues, but are they highest priority on the political agenda? An arguably even greater issue exists that nobody is seriously championing, but which impacts all of us, socially, environmentally and economically. </p>
<p>Our natural heritage – the plants, animals and other organisms that help <a href="https://theconversation.com/to-save-australias-mammals-we-need-a-change-of-heart-27423">define Australia’s identity</a> – are in dire straits. Yet this <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/305/5690/1632">biodiversity crisis</a> is barely mentioned in political discourse, nor is it foremost in the <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10531-013-0476-6">public consciousness</a>. </p>
<p>The world economy is losing €50 billion (A$73 billion) a year through <a href="http://conservationbytes.com/2008/09/15/global-biodiversity-loss-estimated-at-14-trillion-euros">lost ecosystem services</a>. It is predicted to lose €14 trillion per year by 2050 without action now. With potentially <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/biodiversity/economics/pdf/copi.zip">7% of global economic product at stake by mid-century</a>, nature conservation must surely be on the agenda in this election. </p>
<p>Actions needed to conserve our natural heritage, and reap substantial rewards, will <a href="http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20160311-how-many-people-can-our-planet-really-support">challenge some of our most cherished ideas</a> about social and economic policy. This demands reforms to reverse creeping losses to our democratic process. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/oU9G2E_RYJo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Nature is immensely valuable, but this is rarely appropriately costed nor accounted for by governments.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Looking at the major parties’ platforms, it is clear that nature is not on the agenda. Labor lists <a href="http://www.alp.org.au/positive_policies">23 positive policies</a>, none of which deals directly with conserving Australia’s plants and animals. The Liberal-National Party has done slightly better, claiming to <a href="https://www.liberal.org.au/our-beliefs">believe in preserving Australia’s natural beauty</a> and environment for future generations. However, its <a href="http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/FederalPlatform.pdf">federal platform</a>, released last year, shows no evidence of this belief.</p>
<p>Public concern has also <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/105/Supplement_1/11571.short">shifted away from nature issues</a> and towards other concerns like terrorism, as well as traditional areas of focus such as health care and the economy. This shift can be seen in some surprising places, such as the major grassroots lobby group GetUp – of its <a href="https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns">ten current campaigns</a> only one, the Great Barrier Reef program, is directly about conserving wildlife diversity.</p>
<h2>Environmental riches, but for how long?</h2>
<p>The value of biodiversity to humans is well established (for example, see <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-biodiversity-and-why-does-it-matter-9798">here</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-conserving-biodiversity-the-key-to-good-mental-health-26667">here</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/beavers-are-worth-1b-a-year-yet-still-our-economy-grossly-undervalues-nature-48981">here</a>). Biodiversity reduces <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534714000238">stress</a>, <a href="http://eab.sagepub.com/content/33/3/343.short?rss=1&ssource=mfc">crime</a> and <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v528/n7580/abs/nature15744.html">disease</a>. It also provides <a href="https://theconversation.com/natures-hidden-wealth-is-conservations-missed-opportunity-54948">new economic opportunities</a> and many other benefits, from <a href="https://theconversation.com/ocean-predators-can-help-reset-our-planets-thermostat-47937">climate control</a>, to <a href="http://conservationbytes.com/2008/08/20/native-forests-reduce-the-risk-of-catastrophic-floods/">flood defence</a>, to <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-birds-worth-the-billions-15353">the many benefits delivered by birds</a>. </p>
<p>These are just the tip of the iceberg, but like the polar ice they are at risk of disappearing through <a href="https://theconversation.com/meltdown-earth-the-shocking-reality-of-climate-change-kicks-in-but-who-is-listening-56255">our neglect</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115944/original/image-20160322-32283-hmeywk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115944/original/image-20160322-32283-hmeywk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115944/original/image-20160322-32283-hmeywk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115944/original/image-20160322-32283-hmeywk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115944/original/image-20160322-32283-hmeywk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115944/original/image-20160322-32283-hmeywk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115944/original/image-20160322-32283-hmeywk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Examples of the many values (ecosystem services) nature provides.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Despite biodiversity’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-yorks-ecosystems-are-worth-billions-of-dollars-time-to-share-the-wealth-56994?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20April%208%202016%20-%204629&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20April%208%202016%20-%204629+CID_2098041515dfd3c6b8b92f91daf467d3&utm_source=campaign_monitor&utm_term=Cape%20Yorks%20ecosystems%20are%20worth%20billions%20of%20dollars%20time%20to%20share%20the%20wealth">immense value</a>, Australia’s natural heritage is not assured. <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-rarest-insect-goes-global-lord-howe-island-stick-insect-breeding-colonies-now-in-us-uk-and-canada-53216">Good news stories exist</a>,
but as a <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/topics/science-and-research/state-environment-reporting">succession of government State of the Environment reports</a> over recent decades has shown, our natural heritage continues to be squandered. </p>
<p>The reports cite <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/111/46/16610.abstract">population growth</a>, economic growth and climate change as key drivers of decline. Land clearing and invasive species also lead to biodiversity loss. All must be addressed to reverse the <a href="https://theconversation.com/extinction-just-how-bad-is-it-and-why-should-we-care-13751">alarming trajectory of our wildlife</a>. </p>
<p>These threats to our natural heritage should be high on the political agenda. But despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/vale-gump-the-last-known-christmas-island-forest-skink-30252">recent extinctions</a>, caused in no small part by a <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1755-263X.2012.00239.x/abstract">failure to act quickly on conservation advice</a>, bureaucrats and politicians have failed to rise to the challenge. Australia’s plants, animals and other wildlife continue to be swept aside with an <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-yorks-wildlife-ignored-in-the-rush-to-develop-the-north-21998">enthusiasm and abandon</a> reminiscent of the 19th-century pioneers.</p>
<h2>Why the lack of action?</h2>
<p>Nature is missing in action from the political agenda for many reasons. Here are two key ones: questionable political donations and processes, and the gagging of the public service, government and university scientists. Both issues go to the <a href="http://conservationbytes.com/2015/07/16/can-we-save-biodiversity-not-as-long-as-democracy-is-for-sale/">heart of our democracy</a>.</p>
<p>Australia has some of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/think-the-us-electoral-system-is-flawed-check-out-australias-10536">weakest electoral laws</a> concerning political donations and spending. Time lags between receiving donations and declaring them means that appropriate scrutiny of policy motivations, particularly at election times, is uncommon. This is concerning, because links between <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-01/political-donations-down-almost-100m/7128866">political favours for donors</a>, while hard to prove, are frequently noted. </p>
<p>These correlations are not surprising. Corporate political activities are typically <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/national/australian-oil-and-gas-lobby-spent-millions-advocating-against-climate-action-report-20160412-go47ok">not gestures of goodwill</a>, but a widely accepted <a href="http://jom.sagepub.com/content/37/1/223.abstract">corporate strategy</a> aimed at securing better outcomes. Because many companies depend on using land for activities such as digging up resources and clearing native vegetation, the success of their political donations can often be reflected in damage to nature.</p>
<p>Equally concerning is the deafening silence from people who really know how <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-land-clearing-is-undermining-australias-environmental-progress-54882">damaging government policies</a> can be for the environment. Inconvenient truths might challenge government policies. So public servants, including government scientists, are prohibited from speaking, <a href="http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/public-servants-warned-watch-what-you-say-20130812-2rt6e.html">or tweeting</a>. Governments will go to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/the-hunt-how-the-public-service-tracks-down-internal-critics-20160404-gnxjqv.html?campaign_code=nocode&eid=socialn%3Afac-14omn0013-optim-nnn%3Anonpaid-25062014-social_traffic-all-organicpost-nnn-smh-o&promote_channel=social_facebook">extremes more often seen in the pages of crime thrillers</a> to track down and punish whistle-blowers.</p>
<p>Governments attempting to silence academics hit the spotlight over cattle grazing trials in Victorian national parks. A senior Victorian public servant reportedly <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/government-blackmailed-university-20110305-1biyv.html">threatened to withdraw further funding from the University of Melbourne</a> if the university did not agree to oversee the government’s grazing trial, despite the trial being widely regarded as <a href="https://www.ecolsoc.org.au/hot-topics/alpine-grazing-does-it-reduce-blazing">flawed and unnecessary</a>. Faced with this type of pressure, many university scientists <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/conl.12193/full">simply avoid public debate</a> for fear of damaging their job prospects or government funding. </p>
<p>In this climate of silence, major biodiversity issues and <a href="http://euanritchie.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/euan_governance-failing-to-protect-nature-down-under-9_bp27june.pdf">damaging government policies</a> aren’t appropriately aired. The public don’t hear about it and so can’t make informed decisions at the polling booth. Consequently, government and public service barriers to honest media coverage undermine an informed democracy.</p>
<p>Valuing and preserving nature are critical for our <a href="http://www.davidsuzuki.org/issues/wildlife-habitat/projects/natural-capital/what-is-natural-capital/">well-being</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/ecocheck-australias-wet-tropics-are-worth-billions-if-we-can-keep-out-the-invading-ants-56815">prosperity</a>, but species continue disappearing at alarming rates to <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-coal-mines-will-push-threatened-finch-closer-to-extinction-55646">causes we could better manage</a>. </p>
<p>There are things that can be done, at a political level, to help stop this erosion of Australia’s natural heritage before it’s too late. <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/338/6109/946">In addition to adequately funding conservation</a>, we should reform political funding rules. We should also encourage, even legally require, honest and open disclosure of how government policy impacts our environment.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56445/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Driscoll is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and the Society for Conservation Biology. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Euan Ritchie is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and the Australian Mammal Society.</span></em></p>We’re set to hear very little about nature conservation in Australia’s upcoming election campaign. Here’s why that’s a huge oversight.Don Driscoll, Professor in Terrestrial Ecology, Deakin UniversityEuan Ritchie, Senior Lecturer in Ecology, Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/391102015-03-25T01:24:25Z2015-03-25T01:24:25Z#NSWVotes Twitter chatter shows the power of incumbency<p>UPDATED MARCH 27, 11:45AM AEDT: Mike Baird’s Liberal National coalition government has dominated the campaign conversation on Twitter. </p>
<p>Using <a href="http://www.thehypometer.com">Hypometer™ technology</a>, we have been tracking the NSW election in real time and publishing infographics on:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-allparty.png">the volume of posts</a> (including which parties have been most active)</li>
<li>how often the Liberal and Labor parties are <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-2party.png">being mentioned on Twitter</a></li>
<li>and, for the first time, we are tracking the <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png">average sentiment</a> expressed about six different political parties, including trending hashtags. </li>
</ul>
<p>We have embedded those infographics into this article, and they will keep updating every five minutes with the latest social media data. You can keep seeing the latest results right through to polling day this Saturday.</p>
<h2>How much people are tweeting about the Liberals v Labor</h2>
<p>Overall, <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-allparty.png">the volume of Twitter conversation</a> mentioning the parties has been fairly consistent at around 200-250 posts per hour, peaking at around 400-500 per hour each evening. The biggest spikes in activity on March 8 and 13 related to the election debates. Earlier spikes related to the announcement of the election. </p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/images/election-allparty.png"></p>
<p>The seven parties tracked above are, in order, the Liberals, Labor, the Nationals, the Greens, Christian Democratic Party, Shooters and Fishers Party and the Country Labor Party.</p>
<p>As with the Queensland election, the minor parties in NSW have been playing a very small role in overall conversation. For much of the campaign, the Nationals have seen just 5% of the conversation, dropping to 4% for the Greens, and 1-2% for the other parties. (This may change in the final days of the campaign: the infographic below shows the latest results.)</p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-2party.png"></p>
<p>As the campaign has progressed, the balance of conversation across the two major parties shifted somewhat more towards Labor, although this came at the expense of the minor parties rather than conversation around the Liberals. Discussion of the Liberal Party has largely held steady at around 55% of the total party-related conversation.</p>
<p>We saw similar patterns before January’s state election in Queensland, where the majority of pre-election Twitter chatter focused on the Liberal National government, but that government was later narrowly defeated.</p>
<p>In both Queensland and NSW, it’s the incumbent effect at work, where people are more likely to be talking about the current government, in both positive and negative ways.</p>
<h2>Tracking sentiment</h2>
<p>For the first time, we have also been using Hypometer technology to <a href="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png">track sentiment</a> during the campaign. A single tweet on its own tells us little, but aggregating the tweets relating to each of the parties on each day may generate a better picture of overall sentiment. </p>
<p>Early analysis indicates that such sentiment shifts rapidly from day to day and can be heavily influenced by external events. For example, the shift in tone of those discussing the Liberal Party has, at times, been affected significantly by events at the federal level – especially early in the campaign when there was still speculation about a leadership spill. </p>
<p><img src="http://dev.thehypometer.com/static/images/election-sentiment.png"></p>
<p>Green indicates more positive Twitter comments, while red is for more negative. The parties listed, in order, are the Liberals, Labor, the Nationals, the Greens, Christian Democratic Party, Country Labor Party.</p>
<h2>Hot topics</h2>
<p>State-level policies are still influential in the overall conversation. To date, the most prominent trending hashtags in our data set – ignoring generic hashtags such as #nswvotes and #nswpol – have largely related to specific events.</p>
<p>For example, on March 19 #balmainforum was among the most popular Twitter topics in Sydney, as the Greens’ Jamie Parker and the ALP’s Verity Firth battled it out in a <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/inner-west/jamie-parker-and-verity-firth-battle-it-out-for-greens-and-labor-at-inner-west-courier-election-forum/story-fngr8h4f-1227269718935">debate</a> for the inner-west Sydney seat of Balmain.</p>
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<p>But some competing party policies on specific issues have also cut through with particular hashtags, including such #nswnotforsale for electricity privatisation and #csg for coal seam gas, as well as #pilliga (a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-20/labor-pilliga-csg-ban-could-cost-taxpayers-nsw-govt-says/6334990">reference</a> to coal seam gas exploration in the Pilliga Forest).</p>
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<h2>The benefit of incumbency</h2>
<p>Overall, social media patterns cannot tell us who is going to win the NSW election, nor can social media necessarily decide the election. </p>
<p>And of course it should be noted that the Twitter conversation covers only part of the overall public debate. Twitter’s demographics in Australia skew towards a 25- to 55-year-old, urban, educated group, which tends to be influential in public debate, but does not represent everybody. What our research reveals should therefore be seen within a wider context of public debate and discussion.</p>
<p>However, our observations to date confirm the benefit of incumbency and provide a useful indication of the changes in discussion around the parties, in both volume and sentiment, throughout the campaign. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s coverage of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/nsw-election-2015">2015 NSW election</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darryl Woodford is co-founder of Hypometer, and receives funding from qutbluebox for the development of commercial social media analytics.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Prowd is co-founder of Hypometer, and receives funding from qutbluebox for the development of commercial social media analytics.</span></em></p>UPDATED March 27, 11:45am: These live infographics continue to show the most tweeted about people and parties in the New South Wales election.Darryl Woodford, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyAxel Bruns, Professor, Creative Industries, Queensland University of TechnologyKatie Prowd, Assistant Data Analyst, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/373562015-02-09T19:18:24Z2015-02-09T19:18:24ZQueensland waits: Labor and the LNP’s conflicting claims to power<p>Labor has claimed Queensland’s caretaker premier, Campbell Newman, must resign “by 6.01pm” tonight, while Liberal National leader Lawrence Springborg has claimed his party has a strong case to remain as caretaker government even if Labor has the numbers to form government.</p>
<p>Neither of those claims is correct. As Queenslanders wait for a result that could still be days away, it’s worth clearing up the conflicting claims being made by both sides.</p>
<h2>Why shouldn’t Campbell Newman resign at 6.01pm tonight?</h2>
<p>It had been widely reported that <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-squabble-over-keys-to-executive-building-20150209-139jqi.html">6pm on Tuesday</a>, February 10, was when Queenslanders can expect to finally know which major party will lead the next state government. But that’s not strictly true: as the electoral commission’s website shows, 6pm on February 10 is the <a href="http://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2015/timetable.html">cut-off for the return of postal votes</a>.</p>
<p>Last week the electoral commission was aiming for a Tuesday night deadline, but it has since reportedly revised that <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-springborg-speculates-on-ending-speculation-20150209-139xu8.html">back to the end of this week</a>. </p>
<p>The confusion about exactly what time a final election result will be announced has spread to the major parties, with senior Labor MP Jackie Trad <a href="http://audioboom.com/boos/2874467-labor-mp-jackie-trad-say-labor-has-the-right-to-form-government-in-queensland">declaring</a> on Monday that “Campbell Newman is the caretaker premier. And come 6.01pm tomorrow evening, he must resign his commission to the governor.”</p>
<p>But the Electoral Commission of Queensland needs to finalise the count and the distribution of preferences in all 89 seats. This task is so sensitive, it needs to be carefully handled – and that’s why it could take until the end of the week to confirm the final result. </p>
<p>Only after those final results are known can the writs be returned. That will be the trigger for Newman, who remains <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-queensland-if-theres-a-hung-parliament-37027">caretaker premier</a>, to resign his commission. </p>
<p>At that point, by convention, Newman should visit Governor Paul de Jersey and advise him to commission the party that holds the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly to form government. The Governor will then determine who forms government in Queensland (as <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">Graeme Orr has explained</a>).</p>
<p>In the meantime, as constitutional law expert <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-queensland-if-theres-a-hung-parliament-37027">Anne Twomey has said</a>, “it is the responsibility of the parliamentary party leaders and the Governor to ensure that there is a government in office at all times”. That means Newman and his government are obliged not to resign just yet – and certainly not “by 6.01pm”.</p>
<h2>As the caretaker government, is the LNP in a better position to stay in office?</h2>
<p>In the days since reclaiming the Liberal National Party leadership, Springborg has argued that the LNP should be allowed to remain as caretaker government “until we get certainty” about the crucial seat of Ferny Grove.</p>
<p>“It is wrong for Labor or anyone else to run around tripping over themselves to snatch the keys of the executive building when the result has so far to go to actually be clearly determined. People shouldn’t jump the gun,” <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-09/labor-calls-on-lnp-to-relinquish-power/6079022">Springborg said</a>. “You could have the possibility of a government changing in the next few days, then changing again in the next month or so.”</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VMJaswntMOU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<p>There may yet be a by-election in Ferny Grove, where the Palmer United Party candidate was an undischarged bankrupt and ineligible to run. But until that matter has been considered by the Court of Disputed Returns, as the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-09/labor-calls-on-lnp-to-relinquish-power/6079022">electoral commission has said</a> it will be, it seems likely that Labor’s Mark Furner will become the Member for Ferny Grove. </p>
<p>There could still be a by-election there, depending on the court’s decision. That would give the LNP the possibility of claiming minority government, if they won the seat and the backing of two crossbench Katter’s Australian Party MPs (who are yet to declare which major party they would support). </p>
<p>But that process of a court decision and by-election could take months. </p>
<p>In 1995, more than four months elapsed between the result of the July 1995 state election and the decision to call a by-election for the seat of Mundingburra in February 1996. While that court challenge was underway, Wayne Goss was able to get on with leading a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-newman-government-still-runs-queensland-so-what-can-it-do-37210">Labor government</a>.</p>
<p>That now looks like being the most likely outcome in Queensland. On current projections, Labor looks set to win 44 seats compared to the LNP’s 42. Labor also has the edge thanks to independent Peter Wellington’s commitment to ensure confidence and supply – giving Palaszczuk the 45 seats she needs to form a minority government. </p>
<p>That’s why Palaszczuk was confident enough to declare on Monday that she plans to visit Government House <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/risk-of-ferny-grove-by-election-clouds-labors-bid-to-govern-queensland-independently/story-fnr8vuu5-1227212401406">by the end of Wednesday</a> this week about forming government.</p>
<p>Given Labor is likely to have the numbers to lead a minority government, and given the recent example of the Goss minority government, neither convention nor history is on the LNP’s side to stay in office.</p>
<h2>The danger of ignoring conventional wisdom</h2>
<p>A final word of caution. Both parties should avoid embroiling the Governor in <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-state-election-2015/risk-of-ferny-grove-by-election-clouds-labors-bid-to-govern-queensland-independently/story-fnr8vuu5-1227212401406">political controversy</a> over this election result. </p>
<p>It is incumbent on them to find a solution, and to observe the clear and well-understood conventions that guide political practice at election time, rather than descending into squabbles over <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-squabble-over-keys-to-executive-building-20150209-139jqi.html">the keys to the Executive Building</a>.</p>
<p>If Labor holds the greatest number of seats in parliament after this election, as appears certain, then the best place to test Labor’s numbers will be on the floor of parliament. </p>
<p>In the past two state elections, both major parties have suffered huge swings against them. In the months ahead, the people of Ferny Grove may get another chance to decide on behalf of the whole state which party deserves to be in government.</p>
<p>How they conduct themselves now and in the lead-up to a by-election in Ferny Grove, should one be called, will be crucial. Both parties would be well-advised to show respect to the Governor, to the political conventions and to the people of Queensland – or risk yet another backlash at the polls.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37356/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Tiernan has received funding support for her research from the Australian Research Council and the Australia and New Zealand School of Government.</span></em></p>Labor has claimed Queensland’s caretaker premier, Campbell Newman, must resign “by 6.01pm” tonight, while Liberal National leader Lawrence Springborg has claimed his party has a strong case to remain as…Anne Tiernan, Professor in the School of Government & International Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/372102015-02-05T06:59:35Z2015-02-05T06:59:35ZThe Newman government still runs Queensland, so what can it do?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71163/original/image-20150205-28608-1gyisyu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While Queenslanders watch and wait for a state election result, the quiet business of government continues.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/3503959960/in/photolist-uKepV-z8C7v-6kCHdL-79oREq-Kfj2v-67vc1K-dBDrod-z8CXp-grCCJL-nXiRz6-qbUrn-dzSpZt-37hAq-4nyYE-9J1mkt-5uvkzA-5uvjYE-ccxXW1-ccxYij-bVbGYz-ccxYBQ-z8BPb-bVbHh6-6SKfYs-3BGUb-uZeVG-8oTSE7-8SFkvr-pLC5pF-dByf7T-a7Wgy7-z8BVS-z8C45-z8C1F-z8BYs-z8BWz-z8C3p-z8C6g-z8CRj-z8CQq-z8BVe-z8BTW-z8CNL-z8CbZ-z8CPf-z8CYS-z8Cht-z8CdU-z8CTM-z8CVR">Flickr/James Cridland</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queenslanders won’t know until <a href="http://www.dailymercury.com.au/news/election-stalemate-expected-until-next-week/2532546/">at least next week</a> who will lead the next state government, despite Labor winning the crucial support of an independent MP.</p>
<p>That means Campbell Newman will remain premier and in charge of a caretaker Liberal National government for some time.</p>
<p>So how close are we to seeing an election result? What do a caretaker premier and government actually do in the meantime? And what happened 20 years ago, when Queensland had a similarly tight election and there was a court challenge over a seat that got the Goss government back into power?</p>
<h2>Which party is closest to forming government?</h2>
<p>On Thursday, independent MP <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-05/peter-wellington-announces-support-for-labor-in-queensland/6072282">Peter Wellington</a> said he would <a href="https://www.facebook.com/PeterWellingtonMp/posts/821636271242247">support Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk</a> to become the next premier of Queensland if – as appears likely – his vote was needed for the ALP to form a minority government. Wellington said his decision was based on wanting to give Queensland <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/wellington-will-back-labor-if-leader-stays-same/2534379/">certainty</a>, which only Labor was offering. The LNP won’t elect a leader to replace Newman, who lost his seat, <a href="https://twitter.com/theqldpremier/status/563080073528758272">until Saturday</a>.</p>
<p>The Sunshine Coast independent said that while he respected Lawrence Springborg, who is officially leading the LNP’s negotiations to win back government, his efforts were being <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/queensland-election-2015-katters-australian-party-undecided/story-fnr8rfrw-1227208759423">undermined by other MPs</a> “running around trying to … destabilise Lawrence’s attempts”.</p>
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<p>Wellington’s declaration came shortly after two Katter’s Australian Party MPs said they couldn’t decide who to support until all the votes had been counted. That is expected to take until <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-ferny-grove-could-be-headed-to-byelection-20150203-134uok.html">February 10</a>. </p>
<p>Even after next week, one seat could be hanging in the balance. Labor is narrowly ahead and looks likely to win the north-western Brisbane electorate of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-04/queensland-election-bruce-mciver-ferny-grove-by-election-fair/6068676">Ferny Grove</a>. But it has emerged since the election that the Palmer United Party candidate wasn’t eligible to run. If the final result is close enough for PUP preferences to have mattered, there could be <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-election-2015-labor-hopes-for-majority-government-20150205-13755r.html">a by-election</a>.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-queensland-if-theres-a-hung-parliament-37027">Anne Twomey</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-for-queensland-expect-more-nuance-than-chaos-37038">Graeme Orr</a> have explained on The Conversation, there has to be a government in office <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-next-for-queensland-if-theres-a-hung-parliament-37027">at all times</a> – and that means Newman’s post-politics plans have had to be put on hold for now.</p>
<h2>What do caretaker premier and ministers do?</h2>
<p>On the night of the January 31 election, Newman declared that <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-voters-send-a-strong-message-to-eject-newman-37018">“my political career is over”</a>. But the close result means he will remain premier for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>Media footage of Newman packing up his electorate and parliamentary offices led some to question whether Queensland still had a serving premier. The fact is, Newman remains premier, albeit a caretaker one – and the same is true for all his ministers. </p>
<p>Newman <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-05/queensland-crossbenchers-yet-to-make-up-mind-on-who-to-support/6071522">flew to Townsville</a> on Thursday for police graduation, with Labor police spokesman Bill Byrne invited to join him. Similarly, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/jarrod.bleijie">Attorney-General Jarrod Bleijie</a> attended the swearing-in of new judges on Wednesday.</p>
<p>Like any other government in caretaker mode, Newman and his ministers can’t simply do what they like. Instead, they have to keep following the caretaker conventions that came into force when the writs for the election were issued. These will stay in place until a new government is formed.</p>
<p>The caretaker conventions are designed to prevent an outgoing government from locking an incoming government into major new policy, funding commitments or significant appointments. They provide that any significant decisions should be deferred, be handled by temporary arrangements (such as with a short-term contract extension) or be subject to consultation with the other parties.</p>
<p>But the caretaker conventions do not prevent the ordinary business of government from continuing. Departments continue to prepare incoming government briefs as required to under the conventions; programs continue to be administered; and payments continue to be made on current contracts, projects and so on.</p>
<p>All this requires sensitivity and judgement and above all, the need to avoid controversy. There are no hard-and-fast rules. </p>
<p>If urgent or unexpected matters arise – such as a natural disaster – it falls to officials to liaise with the caretaker premier and opposition leader and to broker a bipartisan agreement. This is not always easy. Public servants must find ways to navigate a neutral path in the treacherous partisan waters of political combatants, who are facing off when the stakes have never been higher.</p>
<h2>How Wayne Goss kept governing in 1995, even with a crucial seat under challenge</h2>
<p>It is unusual in Queensland for the caretaker conventions to continue post-election. Mostly, but not always (think 1996 and 1998), the result is clear on election night. The increasing incidence of close election results and hung parliaments in all jurisdictions is making the period that the caretaker conventions apply post-election lengthier.</p>
<p>After the July 1995 election, the result wasn’t clear for 10 days, during which time Wayne Goss’s Labor party continued on as the caretaker government. Labor eventually won, claiming the crucial seat of Mundingburra by just 16 votes to reach a slim majority of just 45 seats to the Coalition’s 43. (Bundaberg independent Liz Cunningham held the remaining seat.)</p>
<p>The Mundingburra result was then challenged by the then Liberal Party and referred to the Court of Disputed Returns. While that was going on, Goss governed on.</p>
<p>The court determined in early December 1995 that a by-election should be held. It was called for February 3, 1996. After a bitter campaign, the Liberals claimed Mundingburra to draw even with Labor at 44 seats, leaving Cunningham holding the balance of power. </p>
<p>That put Goss back in the role of caretaker premier again. Nine days after the by-election, Cunningham announced she would support the Rob Borbidge-led National and Liberal coalition to form minority government. Goss resigned as premier on February 19, 1996.</p>
<p>Queenslanders will no doubt be crossing their fingers for a quicker resolution to this election than in 1995-96.</p>
<p>Newman’s defeat in the seat of Ashgrove means that whichever of the major parties forms government in Queensland, the state will have a new premier. </p>
<p>With this in mind, and given both parties have time to contemplate the lessons of Saturday’s poll, I have prepared some more <a href="http://t.co/gzx0snitiP">detailed advice to Queensland’s next premier</a>. If she or he can look after the four Ps – people, process, policy and politics — our next premier will have the best chance possible of hitting the ground running.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37210/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anne Tiernan has received funding support for her research from the Australian Research Council and the Australia and New Zealand School of Government.</span></em></p>Queenslanders won’t know until at least next week who will lead the next state government, despite Labor winning the crucial support of an independent MP. That means Campbell Newman will remain premier…Anne Tiernan, Associate Professor in the School of Government & International Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370262015-02-01T00:08:36Z2015-02-01T00:08:36ZQueensland votes: how the numbers are falling for Labor<p>With 70.6% of the Queensland state election vote counted, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/">the ABC is giving Labor</a> 44 seats to 33 for the Liberal National Party (LNP). Two Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) and one Independent have also won seats. Counting of votes resumed on Sunday.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, there are problems with the current ABC count because the ABC computer uses the results from the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ), which has selected the wrong two candidates in Gaven for preference vote counting. Labor actually looks likely to have won 43 of 89 seats, with 40 for the LNP, two KAP and one Independent. Three seats – Whitsunday, Mansfield and Maryborough – <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/queensland-election-2015-kap-ready-to-cut-deal-with-labor/6060296">are genuinely still undecided</a>. </p>
<p>If Labor wins 43 seats, it would represent a massive 34-seat gain from the pre-election parliament – and a gain of 36 seats from the 2012 election, when Labor was reduced to just seven seats out of 89. (Labor won two by-elections last year.)</p>
<p>The primary votes are currently 40.8% for the LNP, down 8.9%; 38.1% for Labor, up 11.5%; 8.4% for the Greens, up 0.9%; and 5.0% for Palmer United Party (PUP). </p>
<p>As declaration votes come in, I expect Labor’s overall vote to drop and the Greens and LNP to slightly increase their vote shares. Postal votes tend to heavily favour the conservatives, but polling day absent votes have shown a clear tendency to favour the left. Most pre-poll votes were counted on the night.</p>
<p>As a result, the major party primary votes will probably end up fairly close to the LNP’s 41-37 margin predicted by the final polls. </p>
<p>A major surprise was that the Greens outperformed their polling; the Greens had underperformed at the last Victorian, Tasmanian and federal elections. </p>
<p>The pollsters’ estimate of a narrow but clear 52-48 LNP win after preferences was wrong, partly owing to the high Greens vote, but mostly because preferences were clearly much more favourable to Labor than at the 2012 election.</p>
<p>A clear illustration of this point is that the <a href="http://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2015/results/summary.html#14">LNP is leading on primary</a> votes in 51 seats to Labor’s 35, yet Labor is leading <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/seats-in-doubt/">after preferences in 45</a> seats to 41 for the LNP. Given <a href="https://theconversation.com/are-queenslanders-in-danger-of-wasting-their-votes-35919">optional preferential voting</a> in Queensland, it is remarkable that Labor is currently winning 10 seats from behind on primary votes; in 2012, Labor won no seats when trailing on first preferences. The “put the LNP last” campaign was a major success at this election.</p>
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<p>Premier Campbell Newman lost Ashgrove by a 54.1-45.9 margin, a 9.8% swing to Labor’s Kate Jones. Primary votes in Ashgrove were 44.4% for Jones, up 7.8%; 44.0% for Newman, down 7.9%; and 10.0% for the Greens, up 0.8%. Contrary to pre-election polling, Jones only just leads on primary votes, but a stronger flow of Greens preferences gives her a decisive margin after preferences.</p>
<p>In the 78 Labor vs LNP classic contests – where the final two candidates are Labor and the LNP – the average swing to Labor was just over 14%. If that swing is the same in the non-classic seats, Labor would have about a 51-49 win after preferences, though this is likely to come down on declaration votes. Unfortunately, the ECQ does not do Labor vs LNP two-party counts in non-classic seats, so we will only be able to estimate the final statewide two-party vote. </p>
<p>The biggest swing to Labor happened in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/bung/">Bundaberg</a>, home to Police Minister Jack Dempsey. Labor gained a 23.8% swing, erasing the LNP’s 18.2% margin. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/results/electorates/">Other seats</a> that swung more than 20% to Labor were Woodridge, Redlands, Pine Rivers, Ipswich and Bundamba.</p>
<p>Barring late counting surprises, the three undecided seats are Mansfield, Whitsunday and Maryborough. In the first two, Labor is currently neck-and-neck with the LNP, but I expect the LNP to move ahead as declaration votes are counted. </p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2015/guide/mary/">Maryborough</a>, primary votes are 29.2% for the LNP, 25.6% for Labor, 22.1% for Independent Chris Foley, 12.6% for PUP and 7.1% for One Nation. Labor leads the LNP on the preference count by 52.4-47.6, but there is a chance that Foley could beat Labor into second place on One Nation and PUP preferences. I think this is unlikely and that Labor will win Maryborough, and thus a 44th seat.</p>
<p>If Labor wins 44 seats, they should win the support of Nicklin Independent Peter Wellington, who supported Labor in similar circumstances following the 1998 election.</p>
<p>If Labor finishes with 43, then the two KAP members would have the balance of power. On Sunday, re-elected member for Mount Isa and state KAP leader <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-01/queensland-election-2015-kap-ready-to-cut-deal-with-labor/6060296">Rob Katter said</a> his party was ready to negotiate.</p>
<p>What this election has shown is that, in today’s political climate, being obliterated at an election does not mean that a party cannot win the following election. Voters are far more volatile today than they were 20 years ago. Queensland Labor has come back from a slaughter to be on the cusp of victory and federal Labor has an emphatic poll lead after being thumped in 2013.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37026/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With 70.6% of the Queensland state election vote counted, the ABC is giving Labor 44 seats to 33 for the Liberal National Party (LNP). Two Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) and one Independent have also…Adrian Beaumont, PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370182015-01-31T14:27:46Z2015-01-31T14:27:46ZQueensland voters send a strong message to eject Newman<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70688/original/image-20150131-25914-10mlioh.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With the final Queensland election result still hanging in the balance, Campbell Newman – flanked by his wife Lisa – conceded he had lost his own seat and would leave politics.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Nine News</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“My political career is over.”</p>
<p>Campbell Newman’s spectacular entry into Queensland state politics has only been trumped by his spectacular exit. </p>
<p>After less than three years in power, and having led the LNP to a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/">record victory in 2012</a>, Newman has bowed out of politics after losing his Brisbane seat of Ashgrove. Even worse, his Liberal National Party looks increasingly unlikely to be able to hang onto government.</p>
<p>Late on Saturday night, <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-on-the-brink-of-a-shock-election-win-in-queensland-36983">it remained unclear</a> whether Labor will reach a 45-seat majority in its own right, or whether it might need the support of others to form a minority government. The count will resume on Sunday morning.</p>
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<h2>A shock result and the likely LNP leader</h2>
<p>The result was a stunning and unprecedented rebuke of everything Newman campaigned on during the election. His mantra focused on strength – but he, his party and most political observers all underestimated how vulnerable his government was.</p>
<p>So, where to for the LNP from here?</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Campbell Newman’s concession speech, with his wife Lisa by his side.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Newman said in his concession speech that his Liberal National Party was strong and stable.</p>
<p>But how can a government be strong and stable if it is removed after one term?</p>
<p>Given that the entire campaign was focused on everything that Newman said and did, even from a Labor perspective, the consequences of his shocking defeat remain largely unclear. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Campbell Newman’s victory speech in March 2012.</span></figcaption>
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<p>This result is the inverse of 2012, where Anna Bligh and Labor suffered a 15.6% swing against it. </p>
<p>In looking to recover from this result, the LNP may have no choice but to lay the blame squarely at Newman’s feet. Last night, several senior state MPs were also talking about unhelpful federal “distractions”, including speculation during the campaign about raising the GST and Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s surprise decision to knight Prince Philip.</p>
<p>Who would want to take the LNP leadership in these circumstances? Treasurer Tim Nicholls is now in the box seat, as Springborg is unlikely to want to be opposition leader again for another three years.</p>
<h2>‘Absolutely stunned’: Labor MP</h2>
<p>The ALP ran a hugely successful negative campaign against the government, with almost no policy content aside from refusing to sell assets. Newman made a big show during the leadership debate on Friday over the fact that ALP’s election costings were contained on just four pieces of paper.</p>
<p>Even the most confident of Labor’s supporters would be surprised by this outcome. <a href="http://www.queenslandlabor.org/candidate/di-farmer/">Di Farmer</a>, who has reclaimed her old seat of Bulimba after being defeated in 2012, told ABC TV:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I am absolutely stunned. Look, I was very aware as a local candidate that there was a really, really strong feeling about Campbell Newman and the LNP just not listening to people. It was very, very strong … I had no idea that people really so desperately wanted to send a message to them that this is how they were feeling. I think everyone would be amazed by it.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Palaszczuk looks set to be the first woman to win a state election from opposition: an historic achievement by any measure.</p>
<p>But Palaszczuk’s biggest challenge if Labor does form government will be to come up with a set of policies as quickly as possible. Otherwise the results of 2012 and 2015 may repeat themselves in 2018.</p>
<p>A week into the election campaign, <a href="http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/01/12/labor--lnp-rule-out-minority-qld-government.html">Palaszczuk repeatedly ruled out</a> doing deals to form a minority government in a hung parliament. As AAP reported:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>‘Let me make it very clear: no, no, no, no deals. Next question,’ Ms Palaszczuk said while campaigning in Ipswich on Monday. It was part of a response where she said ‘no’ 10 times in under 15 seconds to emphasise her point.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Palaszczuk’s pledge was a response to the LNP’s promise not to form a minority government, and its warning about Labor “flopping over the line” with the support of minor parties and independents. </p>
<p>It may have seemed like an easy promise for Palaszczuk to make at the time. But it gives Labor one more more reason to hope it gets the numbers to govern in its own right.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37018/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>“My political career is over.” Campbell Newman’s spectacular entry into Queensland state politics has only been trumped by his spectacular exit. After less than three years in power, and having led the…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/363452015-01-28T19:23:21Z2015-01-28T19:23:21ZThe true state of Queensland debt<p>How much debt is Queensland really in? How much of that debt can past Labor governments bear responsibility for, and has the current Liberal National government cut or added to it? And how does Queensland’s debt compare, both within Australia and up against other countries?</p>
<p>This is an article for anyone wanting to know the answers to those questions and more – including the many readers who requested an explanation on the state’s debt after my recent article on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-true-state-of-queenslands-economy-without-the-spin-35959">Queensland’s economy</a>.</p>
<p>For those interested in the technicalities of where I got my data from, and why I chose to look at the ratio of debt to Gross State Product, that’s all explained in notes at the end of this article. </p>
<p>But for everyone else, let’s move straight to what the data shows.</p>
<h2>How does Queensland’s debt compare?</h2>
<p>Table 1 below reports the ratio of debt to Gross State Product (GSP) in percentage terms for Australian states and territories over the last 10 years.</p>
<p>As a reference, the bottom of the table also reports the ratio of debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in selected countries of the world. That data refers to general government debt only, and it’s sourced from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=283&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70229/original/image-20150128-12430-14u9lv7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>What’s clear from that table is that the debt-to-GSP ratio in Queensland has increased considerably since 2006-07, and that most of this increase occurred under Anna Bligh’s Labor governments.</p>
<p>And in comparison to other states, Queensland now has the highest debt-to-GSP ratio.</p>
<p>However, this ratio remains relatively low in comparison to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-g20-economies-explained-in-12-charts-33887">other G20 countries</a>, including the Australian Commonwealth.</p>
<p>The ratio is also significantly lower than 90%, which some previous studies have identified as the level above which long-term growth is reduced. (You can read more in these <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/growth_in_time_debt_aer.pdf">2010</a> and <a href="http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/w18015.pdf">2012</a> papers from Reinhart and Rogoff.)</p>
<p>But not everyone agrees on that 90% threshold; <a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp1434.pdf">other studies</a> have failed to identify any threshold and conclude that there is no relationship between debt and growth.</p>
<p>Another important point is that the 90% threshold is estimated from cross-country data on national or federal debt. The threshold at state level might be lower than 90% – but no conclusive estimates are yet available in the literature.</p>
<p>In other words, working out how much debt Queensland has is the simple part; deciding whether that debt is too high, about right, or quite low, remains a much more subjective matter.</p>
<h2>Is all debt bad?</h2>
<p>So perhaps a simple comparison of debt ratios is not the best way to assess the extent of the problem. </p>
<p>In fact, debt is not always bad and the objective of fiscal policy cannot simply be the minimisation of debt levels.</p>
<p>That’s not a sentiment you’re likely to hear either Queensland Premier Campbell Newman or Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk express between now and Saturday’s polling day. Yet that is something we should all be able to agree on.</p>
<p>If a government borrows to finance investment and/or to help the economy overcome a bad cyclical contraction, then a certain level of debt is not just acceptable, it’s arguably desirable.</p>
<p>In the end, debt is a tool that governments should use to achieve fundamental goals like growth and welfare. The fact that in Queensland debt is higher than, say, New South Wales is not, in itself, enough to conclude that Queensland has a debt problem.</p>
<p>The more relevant question for us to consider is then whether the debt level is sustainable or not. And that means looking at whether or not the debt-to-GSP ratio is likely to climb too rapidly in future.</p>
<h2>You can’t evaluate debt without growth</h2>
<p>In this regard, three factors determine the evolution of the debt-to-GSP ratio: the interest paid on the existing stock of debt, the rate of GSP growth, and the primary balance (which is the budget balance after the government has made its interest payment).</p>
<p>If the primary balance is zero (that is, revenues are equal to expenditures after accounting for the interest payment), then debt is sustainable as long as the rate of growth is not smaller than the interest rate on debt.</p>
<p>When growth is higher than the interest rate, then the government can even run a limited primary deficit and debt would still be sustainable.</p>
<p>A numerical example with numbers that approximate the current situation of Queensland might help understand the importance of economic growth for the purpose of sustainability.</p>
<p>Given an initial debt-to- GSP ratio of 25% and a nominal interest rate of 5.5%, a nominal growth rate of 7.5% is enough to maintain the debt-to-GSP ratio, constant even with a primary deficit of 2%.</p>
<p>With inflation at, say 3%, a nominal growth of 7.5% is equal to a real growth rate of 4.5%, which incidentally is very close to the average annual real growth rate in Queensland over the period June 1991 to June 2012.</p>
<p>So, more than an issue of reducing the absolute level of borrowing, sustainability is a matter of economic growth. An economy that grows is an economy that can sustain its debt.</p>
<h2>Where could Queensland debt end up?</h2>
<p>Let’s consider a few different scenarios to show how much different government approaches would cut Queensland’s debt.</p>
<p>Suppose that economic and fiscal conditions – that is, the growth rate, interest rate and primary balance – in Queensland over the next 10 years were the same as it has been under the current LNP government. Where would debt be by 2023-24? The answer is 58% of GSP.</p>
<p>If we repeat the exercise using the economic and fiscal conditions that occurred under the first of the two Bligh governments, then the answer would be 49%. With the conditions of the second Bligh’s government, the debt-to-GSP ratio would be higher, at 62%.</p>
<p>A government that was able to eliminate the primary deficit, but delivered the same rate of growth as the Newman government, would still produce a debt-to-GSP ratio of 51% by 2023-24.</p>
<p>The chart below shows the projected debt trajectories under all those different scenarios, starting from the current level of debt.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/70230/original/image-20150128-12455-szuw30.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Bligh I – meaning the first term of the Bligh Labor government – was characterised by a higher primary deficit and interest rate than Newman, but the growth rate was also significantly higher. It is indeed this higher growth rate that in the simulation moderates the increase in the debt-to-GSP ratio.</p>
<p>In fact, the chart shows that in terms of stabilising the debt-to-GSP ratio it is better to have a limited primary deficit and grow fast than to have zero primary deficit and grow slowly.</p>
<p>This does not mean that the Queensland government (or any other government) should permanently run a deficit. Quite the contrary: the best way to avoid a debt problem is to alternate deficits in time of recession with surpluses in time of expansion.</p>
<p>However, it does mean that in the pursuit of debt stabilisation, a government should not make choices that cause sharp fiscal restrictions when the economic outlook is fragile or that compromise the state’s long-term growth potential.</p>
<p><em><strong>Technical notes</strong></em></p>
<p><em>To measure debt levels, I primarily used data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), 55120.</em></p>
<p><em>The latest release of this data was in 2014 and the figures are reported up until fiscal year 2012-13. For Queensland (and a few other states), the data for 2009-10 and 2010-11 are not reported. For these years, I referred to the Mid-Fiscal Year Review (various years). I also used those Mid-Fiscal Year Reviews to extend the data to 2013-14.</em></p>
<p><em>The aggregate I considered was the “Borrowing” of the Non-Financial Public Sector, which includes the General Government and Non-Financial Public Corporations.</em></p>
<p><em>Then I scaled debt data to Gross State Product (GSP). In some analyses, debt is scaled to a variable like tax revenues, but this is not entirely appropriate as borrowing is a stock measure, while tax revenues is a flow measure. Moreover, Gross State Product is the scaling factor commonly adopted in the academic and professional discussion on debt.</em></p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the continuous linear piecewise model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p>How much debt is Queensland really in? How much of that debt can past Labor governments bear responsibility for, and has the current Liberal National government cut or added to it? And how does Queensland’s…Fabrizio Carmignani, Professor, Griffith Business School , Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/362182015-01-22T19:02:20Z2015-01-22T19:02:20ZUncovering the black holes in plans to fix Queensland’s debt<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69507/original/image-20150120-24457-2q02x1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Fast-spinning black holes don't just exist in space – Queensland's Liberal National and Labor parties are busy attacking each other's strategies to cut debt, yet both have been guilty of having black holes in their plans.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA/JPL-Caltech</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Author’s update, January 29: In the week since this article was published (on January 23), Labor has moved to address the funding “black hole” in its plans to reduce Queensland’s debt, mainly by adopting very modest election promises. However, the LNP has not addressed its larger financial “black hole”, yet.</em></p>
<p><em>Since voters should know what the parties presented in their economic plans, this article remains as originally published apart from updates to the introduction and an explanatory note in the Labor section. The headline on this article has also been updated, from ‘The black holes in LNP and Labor plans to fix Queensland’s debt’ to ‘Uncovering the black holes in plans to fix Queensland’s debt’. My final conclusions of serious flaws in the plans from both parties to address Queensland’s financial situation still stand.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>At the January 31 state election, Queenslanders are being asked to vote on the future of multi-billion-dollar state assets. </p>
<p>But I’m sorry to say – having examined the Liberal National’s <a href="http://www.strongchoices.qld.gov.au/">Strong Choices plan</a>, <a href="http://www.budget.qld.gov.au/">state budget papers</a>, <a href="https://www.qtc.qld.gov.au/qtc/public/web/aboutqtc/corporate-overview/annual-reports">Queensland Treasury Corporation annual reports</a> and <a href="http://annastacia.com.au/Policies/Our%20State.%20Our%20Assets.%20Labor%27s%20fiscal%20strategy%20and%20debt%20action%20plan.pdf">Labor’s “debt action plan”</a> – that as of the time of first publishing this article (January 23), both major parties had unexplained black holes in their economic plans. While Labor has since moved to address the black hole I identified here, the LNP has not rectified their serious mistake. </p>
<p>So, the central argument remains. Both major parties lack a clear, well-explained strategy to tackle the state’s debt.</p>
<h2>A growing debt problem</h2>
<p>I’ve long argued that Queensland has a debt problem. Before the last Queensland election, I warned that <a href="https://theconversation.com/standing-in-the-shadow-of-debt-in-the-sunshine-state-5820">fast-growing state debt was casting a shadow over the Sunshine State’s economic future</a>, which neither major party seemed willing to talk about at the time.</p>
<p>So three years later, it’s been heartening to see debt and the economy rate as key issues for <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-12/queensland-election-voters-voice-their-issues-in-one-word/6012078">many voters</a> in the 2015 campaign.</p>
<p>As the graph below shows, debt is on track to be A$14 billion bigger by June 2015 than at June 2012. Operating, interest and capital purchases costs were not fully covered, despite around A$10 billion in rail and motorway privatisation receipts during the period. This is an annual average shortfall of A$4.67 billion. </p>
<p>This compares with a A$22 billion rise in debt in the three preceding years under Labor, despite a further A$10 billion in privatisation receipts. That averages out to an annual shortfall of A$7.33 billion.</p>
<p>Both are stunningly bad results. Despite assets being sold, debt continued to rise under both governments. Queensland’s suspicion of asset sales seems well founded.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69503/original/image-20150120-24434-k9l881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69503/original/image-20150120-24434-k9l881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69503/original/image-20150120-24434-k9l881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69503/original/image-20150120-24434-k9l881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69503/original/image-20150120-24434-k9l881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=409&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69503/original/image-20150120-24434-k9l881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69503/original/image-20150120-24434-k9l881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69503/original/image-20150120-24434-k9l881.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=514&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Debt outstanding at Queensland Treasury Corporation (QTC), 1984 to 2015. Note: This is the total debt guaranteed by the State of Queensland through the QTC. A relatively stable A$13b of QTC loans is held by local governments, statutory bodies and the like. In 2013-14, Government Owned Corporation (GOC) debts grew by A$0.3b to A$19b, while water entity debts grew by A$0.5b to A$12b, both with interest fully serviced and a A$1.7b transfer to government. In comparison, Queensland departments (chiefly Treasury) saw their debt rise by A$4.7b to A$42b. Interest for the year of A$1.9b was apparently not covered.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">QTC annual reports</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Global Financial Crisis and responses to natural disasters such as the 2011 Queensland floods and earlier south-east Queensland drought explain a part of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/perfect-one-day-bankrupt-the-next-queenslands-missing-fortune-8450">problem</a>, particularly under Labor. But both governments clearly failed to manage their budgets.</p>
<p>Interest on existing general government debt (now A$42 billion) is not being serviced (see the notes to the graph). This critical problem remains inadequately addressed in election proposals from both major parties. </p>
<p>The assets now up for lease (listed below) are principally the major electricity and transport assets held by <a href="http://www.premiers.qld.gov.au/publications/categories/policies-and-codes/handbooks/welcome-aboard/gov-owned-corps.aspx">government-owned corporations</a> (GOCs). This group has been performing well, fully covering interest on their own A$19 billion debt while also covering interest on the A$12 billion debt of Water Statutory Authorities holding the little used South-East Queensland water grid assets, such as the Gold Coast desalination plant. This does not include Sunwater which is to be leased.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69506/original/image-20150120-24424-v0ijur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69506/original/image-20150120-24424-v0ijur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69506/original/image-20150120-24424-v0ijur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69506/original/image-20150120-24424-v0ijur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69506/original/image-20150120-24424-v0ijur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=298&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69506/original/image-20150120-24424-v0ijur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69506/original/image-20150120-24424-v0ijur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69506/original/image-20150120-24424-v0ijur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=374&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Queensland state assets proposed to be offered for long-term lease to private operators.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.strongchoices.qld.gov.au/Strong_Choices_Final_Plan_Web.pdf">Queensland government's Strong Choices Final Plan, 2014.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Additionally, each year the government-owned corporations provide around A$1.7 billion to general government revenues, which was 3.8% of 2013-14 revenue. The balance sheet below shows the details.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69731/original/image-20150122-12117-12ki9sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69731/original/image-20150122-12117-12ki9sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69731/original/image-20150122-12117-12ki9sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69731/original/image-20150122-12117-12ki9sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69731/original/image-20150122-12117-12ki9sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=824&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69731/original/image-20150122-12117-12ki9sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69731/original/image-20150122-12117-12ki9sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69731/original/image-20150122-12117-12ki9sj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1036&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Distribution of net earnings of Queensland Public Non Financial Corporations.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So how do the parties propose to address Queensland’s debt? The Liberal National Party plans to “lease” profitable government-owned corporations. In contrast, Labor wants to build up GOCs for even greater returns to the public. </p>
<h2>The LNP’s plan: long-term “leases” but at a long-term cost</h2>
<p>Responding to public consultation that found asset sales remained unpopular with Queenslanders, last year <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-privatisation-plan-12b-infrastructure-boost-the-sweetener/story-fnihsrf2-1227081768066">the LNP amended its privatisation plans</a>. Instead of outright sales, it is now talking up the value of long-term leases. </p>
<p>A lease usually involves regular payments each year for the life of a reviewable lease. Yet with the LNP plan, all the money is to be received upfront, not annually, and no reviews are detailed. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69458/original/image-20150119-14495-hxfhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69458/original/image-20150119-14495-hxfhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69458/original/image-20150119-14495-hxfhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69458/original/image-20150119-14495-hxfhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69458/original/image-20150119-14495-hxfhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69458/original/image-20150119-14495-hxfhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69458/original/image-20150119-14495-hxfhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69458/original/image-20150119-14495-hxfhj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=620&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The LNP government’s final ‘Strong Choices’ plan, stamped with ‘No Asset Sales’ after draft consultation found strong opposition to that proposal.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland government</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Assumptions used in calculations will be critical – and I expect they would favour the buyer. Sellers rarely have the upper hand.</p>
<p>Under the LNP plan, the cash hits now (within five years). With 99-year “leases”, assets apparently provide over 90 years of no returns to Queenslanders, exacerbating both future budget and income issues.</p>
<p>That means more than 90 years of not receiving the current (and likely rising) A$1.7 billion annual income from government-owned corporations, and interest cross-subsidies. Naively, that’s more than A$150 billion gone in the long-term for <em>perhaps</em> a <a href="http://www.maynereport.com/articles/2008/05/05-1150-4642.html">historically high</a> A$37 billion today. </p>
<p>Assuming an LNP government gets the prices it want for asset leases, the LNP has forecast the annual interest saving (at 5% per year) from asset sales would be A$1.25 billion. That’s half-a-billion dollars less than the current A$1.7 billion coming into government coffers from the government-owned corporations.</p>
<p>To compensate for that loss, the LNP would need to generate net returns of A$0.48 billion each year from its A$8.6 billion capital spending fund. No evidence has been provided showing how that will happen.</p>
<p>Also, assets are returned at the end of a lease. Experience elsewhere is that they will be run down. We also don’t know any (early or final) termination costs. </p>
<p>We have had <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-election-2015-state-might-have-to-buy-back-assets-20150119-12tlrm.html">no clear answers from the government</a> about what would happen at the end of the leases. That would be a problem for future governments.</p>
<p>Could the LNP economic plan be then “strong but wrong”? From my examination of the asset leasing proposals, I found a number of serious problems, with not enough detailed explanation to do more than this preliminary assessment of its merits and drawbacks. Even if they do manage to get A$37 billion for the leases, that price comes at a much bigger long-term cost.</p>
<h2>Labor’s plan: no asset sales, and a hole that had be filled</h2>
<p><em>Author’s update, January 29: Since this article was published on January 23 Labor has recognised and rectified the A$1.7 billion problem discussed in this section. Announced spending commitments are very modest, indicating a potentially worthwhile attempt to rectify the General Government problem explained below. However, given the black hole was there in the first place, it is worth understanding what the original gap in Labor’s debt action plan was.</em></p>
<p>Labor’s <a href="http://annastacia.com.au/Policies/Our%20State.%20Our%20Assets.%20Labor%27s%20fiscal%20strategy%20and%20debt%20action%20plan.pdf">“debt action plan”</a> was finally released midway through the election campaign. Outlined over just 12 pages, it involves retaining assets, restructuring organisations to improve efficiencies and using a (hopefully) increased income stream from government-owned corporations to pay down debt slowly. We might call this a “grow the GOC business returns model”.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69459/original/image-20150119-14472-1176p1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69459/original/image-20150119-14472-1176p1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69459/original/image-20150119-14472-1176p1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69459/original/image-20150119-14472-1176p1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69459/original/image-20150119-14472-1176p1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=470&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69459/original/image-20150119-14472-1176p1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69459/original/image-20150119-14472-1176p1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69459/original/image-20150119-14472-1176p1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Labor’s ‘debt action plan’, released midway through the election campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland Labor</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The biggest criticism of Labor’s plan has been that it has a <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-state-election-debate-over-revenue-blackhole-20150117-12sggt.html">“A$1.3 billion black hole”</a> and that there is an element of <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/editorial-labor-is-proposing-business-as-usual-and-fingers-crossed/story-fnihsr9v-1227187671512">“fingers crossed”</a> in relying on increased future revenue.</p>
<p>Is there any substance to those claims? From my reading of Labor’s plan, yes. </p>
<p>As I explained above, the government-owned corporation income stream is already committed to subsidise electricity prices across the state. So Labor is relying upon <em>future improvements</em> in GOC performances, rather than money that is currently free to spend. Restructuring may deliver some gains, large or small, but how much and when is unknown.</p>
<p>The 2013-14 state budget papers indicate that performance improvements do appear feasible, but there are clear short-term challenges. Some of these are in the regulatory environment, while others are in the market and wider economy. Commercial risks are both negative and positive.</p>
<p>Labor’s “enhanced” government-owned corporations might contribute while maintaining existing distributions. But this plan needs to achieve above the current A$1.7 billion in GOC returns – and any improvements that can be made may be slow. </p>
<p>Still, it is a positive that a Labor government would retain the government-owned corporations and have better prospects of growing public revenues than the LNP’s leasing plan.</p>
<h2>Roads, rail and infrastructure</h2>
<p>One issue Labor is yet to address in its economic plan is new capital spending. </p>
<p>Without the money raised from selling or leases state assets, Labor can’t come close to matching the LNP’s multi-billion-dollar promises in this election campaign to <a href="http://qld.lnp.org.au/policy/jobs-and-infrastructure/">build and upgrade roads and rail lines across the state</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69502/original/image-20150120-24445-11n2krx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69502/original/image-20150120-24445-11n2krx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69502/original/image-20150120-24445-11n2krx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69502/original/image-20150120-24445-11n2krx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69502/original/image-20150120-24445-11n2krx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=773&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69502/original/image-20150120-24445-11n2krx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69502/original/image-20150120-24445-11n2krx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69502/original/image-20150120-24445-11n2krx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Instagram/Newmancampaign</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As of January 22, the LNP’s <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/queensland-state-election-2015/queensland-state-election-lnp-outpromises-labor-fourtoone-20150121-12v4pa.html">promised spending</a> amounted to about A$5.3 billion compared to Labor’s A$1.3 billion. But there’s far more to come from the LNP, which has earmarked a total of A$8.6 billion for its capital spending fund.</p>
<p>If elected on its current platform, Labor would need to defer capital spending, or find funds elsewhere. </p>
<p>That’s not impossible. Little of the spending is urgent economically. A simple federal rule change (which is cost-neutral to the Commonwealth) would markedly narrow the gap between the parties on capital spending possibilities. If the federal government amended its temporary <a href="http://www.budget.gov.au/2014-15/content/glossy/infrastructure/html/infrastructure_04.htm">A$5 billion “asset recycling incentive”</a> fund to alternately allow a temporary change in the National Highways arrangement from an 80:20 split to a 92% Commonwealth contribution, that would do the job (although not for spending on arterial and local roads).</p>
<p>However, the trouble for Labor is that the Abbott government set up the asset recycling fund – and it’s hard to see the Coalition choosing to make life easier for a Labor state government, or vice versa.</p>
<h2>An unenviable choice on January 31</h2>
<p>Having read the LNP and Labor economic plans, I’d like to be able to say that one or both parties have a clear plan to tackle the state’s debt – but they don’t.</p>
<p>Too many questions remain about crucial details of both major parties’ plans. Queenslanders are being asked to vote on faith or ideology, not the full facts. </p>
<p>Queensland’s debt problems are systemic, and it will take more than a debate over asset sales to fix. Nor will austerity or GST hikes help. </p>
<p>There are more promising approaches for an incoming government wanting to address Queensland’s worsening financial position – including refinancing to address high interest rates – which I hope to discuss in a future article. </p>
<p>The political choice Queenslanders face this election is whether to live off past capital for one final term, or to rework remaining capital for gain. Years of privatisation will stop this election (with Labor), or the next (as the LNP would have disposed of the last major saleable commercial assets). It’s now up to Queenslanders to decide when.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36218/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark McGovern does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Author’s update, January 29: In the week since this article was published (on January 23), Labor has moved to address the funding “black hole” in its plans to reduce Queensland’s debt, mainly by adopting…Mark McGovern, Senior Lecturer, QUT Business School, Economics and Finance, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/364342015-01-22T02:34:57Z2015-01-22T02:34:57ZFour ways to vote for a better democracy in Queensland<p><a href="http://www.griffith.edu.au/criminology-law/school-criminology-criminal-justice/news-events/tony-fitzgerald-lecture-series-scholarship-fund/the-honourable-tony-fitzgerald-ac,-qc">Tony Fitzgerald</a> had a point when he recently urged Queenslanders not to vote for either of the major parties in the January 31 state election. </p>
<p>The 73-year-old, who headed Queensland’s landmark <a href="http://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/about-the-ccc/the-fitzgerald-inquiry">corruption inquiry</a> in the wake of the Bjelke-Petersen era, argued in Brisbane last September that both major parties have failed the voters and are <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/11/tony-fitzgerald-urges-queenslanders-not-to-vote-for-either-major-party">serving only their own interests</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In practical terms, power has been substantially transferred to a small, cynical, political class, mostly professional politicians who represent, and act as directed by, one of the two major political parties which … collectively dominate political discussion and control the political process.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>It’s not hard to see why Fitzgerald is so disappointed by politics in the Sunshine State. Back in 1989, the <a href="http://www.ccc.qld.gov.au/research-and-publications/publications/police/the-fitzgerald-inquiry-report-1987201389.pdf">Fitzgerald Inquiry report</a> was intended to herald a new era of transparency, innovation and integrity. </p>
<p>Yet as Griffith University professor <a href="http://www.griffith.edu.au/professional-page/tim-prenzler">Tim Prenzler</a> has observed, despite a series of <a href="http://www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/handle/10072/30038">stop-go efforts to implement reform</a>, Queensland’s system of government and justice remains ordinary. </p>
<p>Fitzgerald sought to make Queensland more democratic, but the state has continued to be dominated by a duopoly of the two major parties: Labor and the Liberal National Party. In the absence of any form of proportional representation in parliament, other contestants with support spread across electorates cannot concentrate sufficient votes to win many seats.</p>
<p>Consequently, some constituents may not bother and put a candidate of one of the major parties first in the knowledge that their actual choice won’t get into government anyway.</p>
<p>Needless to say, this only adds to the illusion among those in power that an election victory is the same as a mandate to do whatever you like. Queensland truly is a state where the winner takes it all.</p>
<p>So what’s the alternative? I’d argue there are four good places to start. </p>
<h2>Bring back the upper house and spread the power around</h2>
<p>The most obvious one would be to reinstate <a href="http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/explore/history/parliament-house/inside-parliament-house/legislative-council-chamber">Queensland’s upper house</a> and enhance legislative scrutiny. </p>
<p>Another more radical solution would be to introduce proportional representation to ensure that the composition of parliament better reflects the will of the people. Ideally, this would advance a multi-party system in which power is shared between coalitions of varying composition: real coalitions that don’t necessarily represent the interests of the majority of people, but those of as many people as possible.</p>
<p>A study by Dutch-American political scientist <a href="http://polisci.ucsd.edu/about-our-people/faculty/lijphart.html">Arend Lijphart</a> found long ago that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, consensus democracies often create more stability and better policy outcomes. An additional benefit: it doesn’t require more pollies. It just means that power is spread more evenly.</p>
<h2>The right to choose</h2>
<p>While we are at it, we may as well seize the opportunity to get rid of compulsory voting in Queensland, as previously suggested by Attorney-General <a href="https://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/members/current/list/bio?member=Bleijie+Jarrod">Jarrod Bleijie</a>. </p>
<p>Bleijie recently demonstrated that he is not afraid to lead the way of change when he introduced the requirement for voters to show <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslanders-now-have-to-prove-their-identity-to-vote-but-why-35956">proof of identity at the polling booth</a>. </p>
<p>Queensland has led the way on this issue before: when it introduced compulsory voting in 1915, it became <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/Publications/voting/files/compulsory-voting.pdf">the first place in the British Empire to do so</a>.</p>
<p>The rest of Australia gradually copied Queensland’s lead, with compulsory voting introduced federally in 1924, followed by the other states. As this <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/Publications/voting/files/compulsory-voting.pdf">interesting Australian Electoral Commission paper on compulsory voting</a> notes, the Queensland Liberal government of Digby Denham brought in compulsory voting:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>apparently concerned that ALP shop stewards were more effective in ‘getting out the vote’, and that compulsory voting would restore a level playing ground (ironically, Denham went on to lose the 1915 election). </p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69697/original/image-20150122-29885-cs7k1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69697/original/image-20150122-29885-cs7k1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/69697/original/image-20150122-29885-cs7k1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=739&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69697/original/image-20150122-29885-cs7k1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=739&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69697/original/image-20150122-29885-cs7k1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=739&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69697/original/image-20150122-29885-cs7k1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=928&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69697/original/image-20150122-29885-cs7k1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=928&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/69697/original/image-20150122-29885-cs7k1i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=928&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where in the world has compulsory voting.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/Publications/voting/files/compulsory-voting.pdf">Compulsory Voting in Australia, Australian Electoral Commission, 2006</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Just as voter ID laws are commonplace around the globe, so is non-compulsory voting. <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/Publications/voting/files/compulsory-voting.pdf">Only 10 of the 30 nations</a> in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (<a href="http://www.oecd.org/">OECD</a>) have compulsory voting, Australia being one of them. The rest recognise that democracy is about choice, including the choice not to vote. </p>
<p>Proponents of compulsory voting argue, among other things, that it prevents disenfranchisement of the socially disadvantaged. While this is a legitimate concern, compulsory voting in a duopoly means that rather than persuade people to vote for them, all the major parties have to do is dissuade people from voting for their opponents. </p>
<p>Compulsory voting offers an easy escape to get away with cheap rhetoric, blame games and mudslinging. </p>
<p>Non-compulsory voting, on the other hand, compels politicians to make a real effort to trigger people’s interest. They have to convince them to come out to vote in the first place.</p>
<h2>Government of the people, by the people, for the people</h2>
<p>Whatever your opinion of proposals such as bringing back the upper house or scrapping compulsory voting, there can be little doubt that Australian politics is overdue for some change.</p>
<p>To be clear, I’m not a member of any political party; like many Australians, I’m just tired of the two-party status quo continuing unchallenged. </p>
<p>That’s why I hope other Queenslanders going to the polls on January 31 keep Tony Fitzgerald’s words in mind:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Political reform is therefore a task for the community. If Queenslanders want a free, fair, tolerant society, good governance and honest public administration, a sufficient number of voters must make it clear that they will decline to vote for any party which does not first satisfy them that it will exercise power only for the public benefit.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p><em>Read more of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/queensland-election-2015">Queensland election 2015</a> coverage.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/36434/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Niels Kraaier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tony Fitzgerald had a point when he recently urged Queenslanders not to vote for either of the major parties in the January 31 state election. The 73-year-old, who headed Queensland’s landmark corruption…Niels Kraaier, Doctoral researcher, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/181562013-09-25T20:58:04Z2013-09-25T20:58:04ZColombo II: send students to Asia but don’t ignore the Asian students at home<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/31629/original/4d8xkw7q-1379568135.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Much has changed from the first Colombo plan, but Australia's engagement with Asia should start at home.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Asia image from www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Now it’s in government, the Coalition says one of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-25/pyne-education-university-fees-student-unions/4979282">its top priorities</a> is international education. Along with <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/higher-education/pyne-to-extend-streamlined-visa-processing/story-e6frgcjx-1226700138732">policies</a> to encourage international students to study here, Australian students, too, will be offered the chance to go to Asia as part of the government’s <a href="http://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2013/08/30/coalitions-policy-new-colombo-plan">New Colombo Plan</a>. </p>
<p>It’s been termed the “New” Colombo Plan because it takes its name from the original Colombo Plan of the 1950s. Unlike the new policy, the aim of the previous plan, launched in the chill of the Cold War, was not to “engage with Asia” but instead to keep Communist Asia far from Australia’s doorstep. </p>
<p>Ironically, that meant bringing some Asians – non-Communists - closer. Participating students would then return home, western-educated, and promote a sympathetic vision of Australian and western values in the newly decolonised nations of the region. </p>
<p>On this basis, the scheme was highly successful, particularly for the students themselves, many of whom went on to become leaders in their home countries.</p>
<p>There is no reason to think the New Colombo Plan will not be as successful as the original, though its intentions are different. But more could be borrowed than simply the name. Taking on board the hallmark of the original plan and focusing more deliberately on Asian students already coming to Australia might bring “engaging with Asia” a significant step closer.</p>
<h2>International blueprint</h2>
<p>Appropriating the Colombo label means the Abbott government’s new scheme inherits the favourable brand recognition of its predecessor. But the two Colombo plans are very different, the former with its emphasis on bringing Asian students in, the other on sending Australians “Asia-bound” (as the <a href="https://aei.gov.au/international-network/australia/asiabound/pages/asiabound-grants-program.aspx">previous government’s very similar plan</a> put it).</p>
<p>What seems most lacking from the Coalition’s plan is a strongly focused attempt to acknowledge the needs of the international, particularly Asian, students we already have in this country. Their numbers now far outstrip the thousands who came earlier as part of the Colombo plan or as privately-funded international students. </p>
<p><a href="https://aei.gov.au/International-network/Australia/policyupdates/Pages/A-Blueprint-for-International-Education.aspx">The Chaney report into international education</a> released in February this year recommended promoting a “positive experience” for international students, by maintaining “an open and friendly learning environment where international students are valued members of the community and are supported to achieve their goals”.</p>
<h2>From ambassadors to trade statistics</h2>
<p>But unfortunately, we have seen the morphing of the international student from regional ambassador into little more than a figure on our balance of trade. As ANU associate professor Nicholas Brown <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8497.2011.01581.x/abstract">has pointed out</a>, international students are now more likely to be viewed as “human capital”. </p>
<p>Their value is measured in terms of university statistics to quantify “campus internationalisation”. They are seen as a solution to higher education funding problems and, at a national level, a contribution to our significant trade in international education. </p>
<p>The social experiences of earlier waves of international students were not universally positive; but <a href="http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=2013091111573992">research</a> suggests that current international students are even less likely to be successfully integrated into Australian university culture.</p>
<p>As the value of the sector declines by up to 25%, we have seen new education minister Christopher Pyne promising to tackle the “international education” market. Those interested in issues of international education beyond the financial, though, can only hope his government will recognise and facilitate the two-way benefits of enhanced social and cultural integration. </p>
<h2>Global 30</h2>
<p>Australia is not alone in facing this problem, which is shared by the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as non-western countries such as China, Japan and Korea. </p>
<p>Recognising the historical difficulty of getting its own students to go abroad, the Japanese government is now promoting its own ambitious policy, similar to the first Colombo plan, called the <a href="http://www.uni.international.mext.go.jp/global30/">Global 30 project</a>. Designed to bring 300,000 international students to study in Japan, the hallmark of the scheme is for students to study in English at handpicked Japanese universities, but they will do so alongside Japanese students.</p>
<p>The government wants the program to “create an academic environment where international and Japanese students can learn from one another and build lasting international bonds”. </p>
<p>Cross-cultural benefits should be immediate and two way, but the overarching intention is less <a href="http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=2013091111573992">soft power diplomacy</a> through education, as we saw in Australia in the 1950s, but “propelling” Japanese students into the international scene. </p>
<p>While the success of the scheme has not yet been assessed, the coalition could learn from its vision and commendable approach.</p>
<h2>Engaging with Asia at home</h2>
<p>Higher educational institutions should do more to assist in the educational and social integration of Asian students, if only because we take their money and educational integration ought to be part of the package. Indeed, many Australian educators are presently working on this. But educational institutions are largely failing to capitalise on the resources already in their classrooms. </p>
<p>The Abbott government has produced an exciting agenda for engagement in the region. Getting domestic students to talk to the international students sitting on the other side of the classroom, though, could be a half way decent alternative. They might all appreciate it. And it’s much cheaper than going to Singapore.</p>
<p>By taking a retro-view of the original plan, the drivers of the New Colombo plan have an opportunity to re-figure the Asian students who feature so prominently in our universities as cultural, educational and even regional assets for Australia. Simultaneously, we can offer them more positive engagement with Australia. </p>
<p>For Australian students who are not – as well as those who are - Asia-bound, in 21st century Australia, engagement with Asia can surely begin at home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/18156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jan Gothard has received funding from the (former) Australian Learning Teaching Council for the project 'Bringing the Learning Home. Programs to enhance study abroad outcomes for Australian university students'.</span></em></p>Now it’s in government, the Coalition says one of its top priorities is international education. Along with policies to encourage international students to study here, Australian students, too, will be…Jan Gothard, Associate Professor in History, Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/178712013-09-05T00:15:39Z2013-09-05T00:15:39ZHidden in plain sight: commission cuts and non-core promises<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30718/original/bdbpnvbf-1378338473.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1%2C0%2C998%2C696&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Tony Abbott has promised not to cut areas such as health, education and payments to the poor and disadvantaged, but a Commission of Audit report traditionally trumps such Liberal National Party promises.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There has been much, and justified, criticism, of Tony Abbott’s decision to conceal the costings of his policies until two days before the election, when the electronic media blackout will be in place. </p>
<p>There’s an obvious risk that politically unappealing cuts are being saved until the last minute. But the most frightening possibility for an Abbott government is already in plain view: the promise to appoint a Commission of Audit. This has become standard operating procedure for an incoming Liberal National Party government, and the outcome is entirely predictable. </p>
<p>Over at least a dozen such Commissions, the script has never varied. The Commission will announce a discovery that the public finances are far worse than the outgoing Labor government admitted, and will advise the government to ditch many of its election promises. </p>
<h2>Promises, promises</h2>
<p>The abandoned promises won’t include handouts to business or favoured political groups - the necessary cuts will focus on health, education and payments to the poor and disadvantaged. </p>
<p>Of course, Abbott has promised not to cut these areas. But the political tradition of the LNP is that a Commission of Audit report trumps all such promises. </p>
<p>In the lead-up to the 1996 election, John Howard was asked directly whether he would stick to his promises regardless of the Budget’s state. But, with the aid of the Commission of Audit set up by Peter Costello, Howard invented the category of ‘core’ promises, which would be kept. The public was left to infer that everything else was ‘non-core’. </p>
<p>More recently, campaigning in Queensland, Campbell Newman promised public servants they had nothing to fear from an LNP government. When he took office, he turned to Costello to perform the inevitable Commission of Audit, which varied only marginally from the 1996 version Costello himself had commissioned. </p>
<p>Newman invented his own variation on the core/non-core distinction, claiming that he had meant his promise to apply only to ‘frontline’ workers. When the sackings extended to nurses and teachers, he clarified further, saying that he meant ‘frontline services’, not the workers who were supposed to deliver them. </p>
<p>It’s possible that the politics will prove too difficult for Abbott, as happened to Ted Baillieu. By the time his Commission of Audit report was ready, with its recommendations of radical privatisations, Baillieu was already on the way out and the report was too politically toxic to be released. </p>
<p>But that’s only likely in the event of a razor-thin majority, the outcome most voters would like least. </p>
<h2>A question of scale</h2>
<p>What effect would arise from the scale of cuts that the Commission of Audit typically proposes? The cuts introduced after the 1996 election were on the scale of 1-2% of GDP, equivalent to $15-30 billion today. </p>
<p>In the context of a weakening economy, as may well be the case, public sector cuts have a ‘multiplier’ effect, reducing activity by more than the amount of the original cut. The International Monetary Fund has recently estimated the multiplier at around 1.5, so that a 1-2% cut in public spending would generate a cut of 1.5-3% in economic activity, enough to turn a slowdown into a recession.</p>
<p>In terms of employment, the standard estimate, called Okun’s Law by economists, is that each percentage point reduction in GDP increases the unemployment rate by 0.5%, and reduces employment by about the same amount. In the worst case of a 3% decline, it might imply a 1.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate. </p>
<p>This is consistent with the experience in Queensland, where employment has declined, relative to trend, by more than the amount of Newman’s cuts. </p>
<p>Under normal circumstances, monetary policy could be relaxed to offset the effects of such fiscal austerity. But with the cash rate down to 2.5%, the Reserve Bank doesn’t have much room to move. The RBA would be very reluctant to cut rates to zero, at which point the only option would be the kind of quantitative easing that the US Federal Reserve implemented with only limited success.</p>
<p>Of course, it is possible that the Commission of Audit’s inevitable recommendations for massive cuts will be ignored and that an Abbott government will make no cuts beyond those to be announced on election eve. </p>
<p>As Winnie the Pooh’s gloomy companion, Eeyore, said in a similar situation: “That’s what would be so interesting. Not being quite sure till afterwards.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17871/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There has been much, and justified, criticism, of Tony Abbott’s decision to conceal the costings of his policies until two days before the election, when the electronic media blackout will be in place…John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics , The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/138252013-05-01T00:20:55Z2013-05-01T00:20:55ZTitanic ambitions: Palmer’s federal push shouldn’t be lightly dismissed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/23060/original/rw4trcpj-1367360792.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Soon after revealing his plans to build a replica Titanic, Clive Palmer has set his sights on becoming Australian Prime Minister.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Jason Szenes</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland has a habit of raising the eyebrows of our southern cousins when it comes to politics “our way”. Visits to friends and family down south always have required explanations about Joh Bjelke-Petersen, Joh for Canberra, Pauline Hanson, Bob Katter, Peter Beattie, and lately, Campbell Newman.</p>
<p>More recently it has been Clive Palmer, our very own mining magnate, reclaiming a bit of Australian political history and making a grand entrance onto the national stage. Mr Palmer is reviving the [United Australia Party (UAP) ](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Australia_Party_(current) and says he wants to be Prime Minister - and since announcing his bold plan a week ago, the momentum behind him has been building.</p>
<h2>The smarts behind the stunts</h2>
<p>Best known nationally as the man who wants to build Titanic II and the franchise owner for a short time of a Gold Coast A-League soccer team, it would be easy for Mr Palmer’s latest venture into politics to be swamped by Titanic jokes and references to <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1753154/Clive-Palmer-unveils-plans-for-life-size-dinosaur">dinosaurs</a>. But Mr Palmer has been a player in Queensland politics for decades. There is sufficient political savvy behind his pronouncements for us to take notice of his intentions. </p>
<p>On election night last year, I sat in the Queensland Electoral Commission’s Brisbane tally room and watched the live cross to the Liberal National Party (LNP) celebrations of their landslide win. The lasting image of that night was not of new premier Campbell Newman claiming victory: it was the loud, raucous offerings of a very excited LNP life-member, Clive Palmer.</p>
<p>Politics watchers here in Queensland were more than familiar with the financial resources Mr Palmer had poured into his beloved LNP; his history with the party and its antecedents was part of Queensland political lore; his role in the Joh for PM campaign is well-known. So whatever you think of the United Australia Party push, Mr Palmer is no political novice seeking to clumsily exert influence for his business interests.</p>
<p>The question some of us here in Queensland ask is “what went wrong, so quickly?”: from the joy of election night to the revival of an historic party and now seeing disaffected state MPs joining the UAP, starting with <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/palmer-signs-up-two-queensland-mps-20130430-2iqjn.html#ixzz2RzCAZB9L">former LNP MPs turned independents Alex Douglas and Carl Judge</a>.</p>
<h2>Politics 101 for a new party</h2>
<p>So what is the likelihood of success for the new UAP?</p>
<p>As my first-year politics student learnt in politics 101 last week, for Mr Palmer to ever become prime minister, he will need the majority support on the floor of the House to achieve that aim. He claims he will have 150 candidates ready, one for each seat in the lower house and candidates for the Senate.</p>
<p>Again, the 150 candidates is an ambitious aim, though not entirely impossible, but he does have a short lead-time to vet and check possible candidates. Mr Palmer has said he will nominate for the federal seat of Fairfax on the Sunshine Coast, a seat that adjoins Fisher, which itself is having an interesting stoush between newly-independent former Speaker Peter Slipper and the LNP candidate, former Howard Government minister Mal Brough. The Sunshine Coast has never had so much political attention.</p>
<p>Both federal seats are safe LNP seats and on-the-ground intelligence suggests that there is little likelihood that the seats will change hands. In drafting state members <a href="http://www.alex4gaven.com.au/">Dr Alex Douglas</a> from the Gold Coast and former police officer <a href="http://www.carljudgemp.com.au/">Carl Judge</a> from Brisbane, the UAP has its required sitting members in time for formal registration with the Australian Electoral Commission - though it is blurring the lines for the electorate between state and federal.</p>
<p>The UAP in this way is not unlike Queensland’s other conservative breakout group, the Katter’s Australia Party. Clive Palmer has also received strong endorsement from popular and respected state independent Peter Wellington, whose state boundaries intersect with the seat of Fairfax. That might garner some support from Wellington supporters when Clive comes doorknocking soon.</p>
<h2>The perils ahead</h2>
<p>I don’t doubt Mr Palmer will attract a reasonable number of votes if he stands. There is a lot of dissatisfaction with the major parties and people might like his rambunctiousness sufficiently to cast their vote his way. However, preferences will tell a big story here too. A first preference vote to UAP will send a message to the majors, but the second and third preferences will inevitably be directed to the more conservative side of politics. This will no doubt favour the LNP candidates.</p>
<p>Mr Palmer is here to make a larger-than-life impression, and he will. However, there will be further chapters to this story as the 14 September poll approaches, not the least of which will be the need to clear the air between the politics of this state and the state of politics nationally. Two state MPs do not yet a federal party make. </p>
<p>Mr Palmer’s grand ambition to be PM is unlikely to be realised this time. If he wants the UAP to succeed in the long-term, Mr Palmer needs to heed the lessons of his beloved Titanic. As captain of the ship, he is navigating into perilous political territory - so he will need to keep a close watch on where he is headed, rather than just charging in, full steam ahead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/13825/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Donna Weeks does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland has a habit of raising the eyebrows of our southern cousins when it comes to politics “our way”. Visits to friends and family down south always have required explanations about Joh Bjelke-Petersen…Donna Weeks, Lecturer, Japanese Studies and International Relations, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/115432013-01-10T03:26:23Z2013-01-10T03:26:23ZFact check: do bushfires emit more carbon than burning coal?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19108/original/y2tfrvqm-1357784710.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bushfires release CO2, but how much?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Kim Foale</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>“Indeed I guess there’ll be more CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from these fires than there will be from coal-fired power stations for decades.” - acting Opposition leader, Warren Truss, January 9, 2013</p>
</blockquote>
<p>On Wednesday, leader of the National Party and acting Opposition Leader, Warren Truss claimed carbon emissions from the current bushfires are <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/climate-change-link-to-heat-fires-utterly-simplistic-says-warren-truss/story-fndo317g-1226550415035">equivalent to decades of carbon emissions</a> from coal-fired power.</p>
<p>The current bushfires are so large that the statement by Warren Truss seems plausible.</p>
<p>This spurred me to do some research to find out.</p>
<p>Coal-fired power stations in Australia emit around <a href="http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,32870,en.html">200 million tonnes</a> of CO<sub>2</sub> per year. This does not include emissions from our coal exports.</p>
<p>Around 30 tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub> per forested hectare were emitted by the <a href="http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0003/75378/Fact-Sheet-Land-Carbon-and-bushfire.pdf">Black Saturday Fires in 2009</a>.</p>
<p>Bushfires this year have so far burned around 130,000ha of forest, so have emitted nearly 4 million tonnes of CO<sub>2</sub>.</p>
<p>So, the bushfires this year have emitted an amount of CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent to 2% of Australia’s annual emissions from coal-fired power.</p>
<p>The current bushfires must burn an area of forest greater than Tasmania to generate CO<sub>2</sub> emissions equivalent to a year of burning coal for electricity.</p>
<p>And the current bushfires must burn an area of forest the size of New South Wales to generate CO<sub>2</sub> emissions equivalent to a decade of burning coal for electricity.</p>
<p>However, the carbon emitted from bushfires is not permanent. Eucalypt forest regenerates after fire, and will quickly begin to sequester from the atmosphere the carbon that has been lost from the current bushfires.</p>
<p>The same cannot be said of coal-fired power stations.</p>
<p>Warren Truss’ statement reflects a view that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are insignificant relative to natural events such as bushfires that have occurred for millennia in Australia.</p>
<p>However, when one drills into the data, the current bushfires provide a stark illustration of the opposite: the amount of carbon that is emitted by bushfires is insignificant relative to our principle sources of greenhouse gas emissions such as coal-fired power.</p>
<p><strong>Read more about the relationship between <a href="https://theconversation.com/burn-bush-reduce-emissions-evaluating-costs-and-benefits-of-prescribed-burning-1098">bushfires and emissions</a>.</strong></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11543/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Gibbons receives funding from the Australian Government, the Government of the Australian Capital Territory and the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>“Indeed I guess there’ll be more CO2 emissions from these fires than there will be from coal-fired power stations for decades.” - acting Opposition leader, Warren Truss, January 9, 2013 On Wednesday, leader…Philip Gibbons, Senior Lecturer, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/90842012-09-02T00:43:43Z2012-09-02T00:43:43ZFeels like an election year? Here’s why<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/14845/original/7zgbs3qn-1346372755.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C100%2C5616%2C3362&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Both political parties are lining up their elections strategies now, even though an election could still be a year away.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The former British Prime Minister, Harold Wilson famously said a week is a long time in politics. If this is the case, then you have to wonder how long it will feel if the current Parliament runs it full course.</p>
<p>Lately, Australian politics has seen a flurry of activity on issues as diverse as <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/asylum-seekers">asylum seekers</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-4b-dental-care-program-will-tackle-inequity-but-funding-still-in-question-6808">dental health</a>, the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-30/gillard-announces-disability-insurance-scheme/3980662?section=nsw">National Disability Insurance Scheme</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-legal-implications-of-changing-the-carbon-pricing-mechanism-9186">carbon floor price</a> - along with sideshows such as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3573785.htm">Tony Abbott’s encounter with the ABC’s Leigh Sales</a> and Julia Gillard’s <a href="http://www.pm.gov.au/press-office/transcript-press-conference-canberra-30">combative press conference</a>. And there’s more to come too, with the government’s imminent policy response to the Gonski recommendations on schools funding. </p>
<p>All of this activity points to a Parliament focusing hard on the next federal election.
For different reasons, both the Coalition and the ALP will be desperate to see the end of minority government and return it to what they see as its natural state – a strong majority government. Strategists in both parties, faceless or otherwise, will be sharpening their marketing tools to make this happen. </p>
<p>So it’s timely to consider the election strategies of the major parties and speculate on what might get them into government.</p>
<h2>Voting drivers</h2>
<p>Smart political strategy understands how voters make their decisions. A useful starting point is to reflect upon the last federal election, and consider the drivers of voting behaviour. The ANU runs the <a href="http://aes.anu.edu.au/">Australian Election Study</a> (AES) a comprehensive survey after each election, and this data gives key insights. </p>
<p>In 2010, we know that most voters claim that they had made up their mind a long time before the election (at least 40%); yet we also know that the major parties have far fewer “rusted on” supporters than they used to. Interestingly, about a quarter of the voters polled claim they only decided their vote either a few days or even on election day itself. </p>
<p>This poses a problem for the major parties. If you set out the “big picture” policies too soon you risk losing your message, but leave it too late and your party looks like it is locked in a policy vacuum.</p>
<p>The 2010 AES gives a good sense of the policy priorities that drive voting intention. Health policy (and not sound economic management) was cited as the main issue in how people settled on their vote (27.3% compared with 21.6%). Just 7.6% cited global warming as the main issue - despite the attention given to the carbon tax. </p>
<p>But the 2010 election, of course, is just one example – some issues will feature more prominently than others at different times. But the usual policy suspects appear again and again: the economy, health and education. If parties get these key areas right, it can help a lot when it comes to election time.</p>
<p>Despite the media attention and public spats on the issue – immigration, while a concern, is unlikely to be one of the key deciding issues.</p>
<h2>The Labor strategy</h2>
<p>What does this all mean for the parties? </p>
<p>For the Gillard government, there is an interesting policy space which has now opened up. The ALP will be hoping that they have finally lanced a few poisoned policy boils, namely the mining tax, the carbon tax, and now off-shore processing. </p>
<p>The hope is that public support will at least soften on these issues. Labor will be pushing hard to renew its economic story, but as the Howard government could testify in 2007, this alone is not enough.</p>
<p>There are also lessons from the recent state elections for the ALP. The Northern Territory election was a reminder that the parties cannot take their traditional supporters for granted. Clearly local factors are at play, but Labor’s heartlands are disillusioned with the party. Its <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-labor-counts-the-cost-of-federal-and-state-indigenous-policies-9081">indigenous support</a> fell away, and the party’s <a href="http://www.alp.org.au/australian-labor/member-news/2010-alp-national-review-report/">own review</a> noted the declining support from other culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) groups.</p>
<p>Labor will have to remind them that they offer a distinctive social policy agenda.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-29/plibersek-unveils-4b-dental-reform-package/4230196">recent dental announcement</a>, along with the National Disability Insurance Scheme may well be an outlier of other social policies to bolster support from low to middle income earners. Housing policy, the most unsexy of all social policies, might well form part of this strategy.</p>
<h2>The Liberal strategy</h2>
<p>What of the Liberals? There is a tension at the heart of Tony Abbott’s highly effective and aggressive strategy. The polls indicate it is working, but it is based on what the
opposition won’t do, rather than what it will, if elected. </p>
<p>The current strategy puts repealing the carbon tax front and centre. Yet, as shown by the recent decision by BHP not to expand the Olympic Dam (<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-23/blame-game-heats-up-over-olympic-dam-delay/4216720">while explicitly stating it was due to capital costs</a> and not Australian taxes), this is a strategy with its limits. </p>
<p>The Liberals will also have to offer a positive vision, and its pledge on fiscal conservatism does little to demarcate it from Labor. </p>
<p>Herein lies the other problem for Abbott. He is the party’s most conservative leader in many years, yet the party also needs to appease its liberal base. At the last election, its commitment to a paid maternity leave scheme was an attempt to out-flank Labor from its left, and also address Abbott’s unpopularity with many women voters. The Liberals may well find a new policy area to attempt this again – perhaps work-life and childcare issues.</p>
<p>Whilst Labor might raise the spectre that the Coalition will launch Workchoices 2.0, Tony Abbott is determined to down-play the issue.</p>
<p>Both parties will also need to rebuke any suggestion that they occupy too much of the same policy space. AES data shows some hope here in that most voters do see some differences between the two. </p>
<p>A creeping Presidentialism in Australian politics means the importance of party leadership is growing in the minds of voters. All you need to do is look at the knifing of Kevin Rudd to see the role of leadership can be crucial.</p>
<h2>Rational voters?</h2>
<p>Whilst the policy debate is important, it also presupposes a focus on the “rationality” of how voters make decisions. Yet in truth, it remains a combination of many factors. To win outright, the parties will need to calibrate their strategies around this complexity.</p>
<p>Indeed, as the other famous Harold of British politics (MacMillan, not Wilson) is credited with saying, “politics, is events, dear boy, events”. </p>
<p>The fallacy of strategy is that it does not allow for the unexpected.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/9084/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rob Manwaring does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The former British Prime Minister, Harold Wilson famously said a week is a long time in politics. If this is the case, then you have to wonder how long it will feel if the current Parliament runs it full…Rob Manwaring, Lecturer, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/76522012-06-20T01:37:19Z2012-06-20T01:37:19ZThe influence of ‘Big Society’: Abbott borrows from UK conservatives<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/11884/original/sgy9nb7p-1340076595.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C19%2C4224%2C2809&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Opposition leader Tony Abbott is looking to the politics of the United Kingdom for policy inspiration.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Earlier this month, opposition leader Tony Abbott presented the <a href="http://www.liberal.org.au/Latest-News/2012/06/08/The-Coalition-s-Plan-for-Stronger-Communities.aspx">second instalment</a> of the Liberal and National parties’ “Plan for Stronger Communities”, having already outlined <a href="http://liberal.org.au/Latest-News/2012/01/31/My-Plan-for-a-Stronger-Economy-and-a-Stronger-Australia.aspx">elements of the plan</a> at the National Press Club. </p>
<p>The plan bears striking similarity to the UK government’s “<a href="http://cpd.org.au/2012/05/big-society-how-the-uk-government-is-dismantling-the-state-and-what-it-means-for-australia/">Big Society</a>” policies that have been implemented since Prime Minister David Cameron’s election in May 2010 – policies that promote small government with (notionally) greater power given back to local citizen groups.</p>
<p>In his “landmark speech” to the Pratt Foundation, the opposition leader spoke of several “community” oriented themes and policies such as locally managed schools and hospitals, asserting that “a community that invests its own time and money” rather than being “controlled by distant bureaucracies” will have “more social capital and a stronger social fabric than one which doesn’t.” </p>
<p>He reiterated the Opposition’s commitment to returning the budget to surplus, cutting government spending, reducing taxes and investing in infrastructure. As in his January press club speech, the speech contained contradictory pledges to reduce taxes while ensuring better services and increased social spending. </p>
<p>Australian voters may be growing desensitised to this paradox as it has been a feature of most recent state elections. Premiers Baillieu, Newman and O’Farrell all promised to strengthen public services, then justified their post-election retrenchment of thousands of public servants as a necessary measure to balance state budgets.</p>
<p>Like the British Prime Minister, Australia’s opposition leader is committed to redefining the role of the state and, correspondingly, the roles of the private and community sectors. Like Cameron, Tony Abbott has been influenced by the ideas, arguments and policies advocated by Phillip Blond, director of UK think tank <a href="http://www.respublica.org.uk/">ResPublica</a> and his 2010 book “<a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Red-Tory-Right-Broken-Britain/dp/0571251676">Red Tory</a>”. </p>
<p>Last June, Abbott <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/timferguson/2011/06/19/conservatives-meet-phillip-blond/">welcomed Blond</a> as a “friend of Australia” to address a forum convened by the Liberal Party’s think tank, the Menzies Research Institute. During his visit, Blond briefed senior Liberals.</p>
<p>Several characteristic Big Society policies featured in Mr Abbott’s “Stronger Communities” plan: restricting welfare entitlement, mandatory “work for the dole”, mutual obligation and a contestable market for services. In the UK, <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/14/osborne-austerity-270000-public-sector-jobs">three quarters of a million government employees</a> will be retrenched over six years as a huge range of formerly government-run services are commissioned to “any willing provider”.</p>
<p>Abbott’s reference to “little platoons” was an especially clear link to the UK’s Big Society policies. Phillip Blond attributed the notion to Edmund Burke, the “father of modern conservatism”, who used this expression to describe formal and informal networks. </p>
<p>The opposition leader’s little platoons include service clubs, charities, school and hospital auxiliaries, volunteer bush fire brigade and Landcare groups that “give people a sense of wider purpose and belonging.” </p>
<p>Australians will respond positively to leaders who affirm and celebrate our culture of volunteerism. About 40% of us volunteer each year and we consistently rank near the top of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Giving_Index">the World Giving Index</a>, an amalgam of three giving behaviours: helping a stranger, volunteering time and giving money.</p>
<p>Like Cameron and Blond, Abbott asserts that Government “can’t create” these little platoons, but it “can certainly hinder them especially if it habitually assumes that the official knows best.” His Stronger Societies platform appeals to and reinforces a populist small government ideology. </p>
<p>Small government advocates claim that governments “get in the way”, meddle excessively in citizens’ lives, and impede economic progress through unnecessary red (or green) tape. Its proponents assume private sector efficiency while overlooking the widely held community preference for public servants to deliver health, education and other services and the even stronger reservations about the public benefits of privatisation. </p>
<p>They neglect public servants’ role in managing government finance, making, monitoring and enforcing laws and regulations, and policy development. And they overlook the importance of a strong state to respond to complex and unexpected change such as natural disasters, climate change or economic upheaval.</p>
<p>Small government is shaping up to be a volatile ingredient in pre-election debates to come. Last month, Former Reserve Bank governor and Treasury secretary Bernie Fraser <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-30/fraser-disillusioned-with-australian-politics/3980874">observed</a> “there is an "extreme ideology of small government” in Australia that fails to ensure “competence, fairness, and compassion”. And just last week, the small government alignment was claimed with pride by NSW Treasurer Michael Baird when he declared that the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-13/nsw-budget-attacked-over-27secret-cuts27/4067510?section=nsw">state’s budget</a> would retrench 10,000 public servants (additional to the 5,000 announced late 2011).</p>
<p>In the UK, two years of David Cameron’s Big Society policies have energised a national debate about the reciprocal relationship between the public and community sectors. Initial enthusiasm about “community empowerment” has turned to strident criticism as corporations have dominated service delivery contracts and community sector organisations have been forced to shed staff and programs. Volunteerism has been unable to fill the vacuum of a withdrawing state, even with compulsory volunteer programs.</p>
<p>I hope there is a similarly energised debate about the role of the state in Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/7652/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>CPD's Public Service research is funded by the Community and Public Sector Union, the Becher
Foundation and Slater & Gordon to contribute to the debate on public sector reform in Australia.</span></em></p>Earlier this month, opposition leader Tony Abbott presented the second instalment of the Liberal and National parties’ “Plan for Stronger Communities”, having already outlined elements of the plan at the…James Whelan, Lecturer, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/60612012-03-27T19:12:09Z2012-03-27T19:12:09ZThe lie of the land for Labor after the Queensland poll<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8996/original/g8brrfc8-1332738066.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1286%2C127%2C2898%2C2701&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Bligh led Labor party's devastating defeat in Queensland could present difficulties for federal labor seats.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/ Dan Peled</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Queensland election can tell us a lot about Labor’s electoral future. There is no doubt that if the Queensland state election landslide against Labor were extrapolated to federal boundaries, the federal Labor party would come close to being wiped out.</p>
<p>There’s a potential for nearly all of Labor’s Queensland seats to be lost with Kevin Rudd as the only likely survivor, and that would only be by a very tight margin.</p>
<p>Of course, lost state seats don’t always mean corresponding federal losses. Sometimes voters can make one choice at a state election and another at a federal election. But there is a correlation and often there is a bad association which spreads across both the state and federal parties.</p>
<p>If this were to happen in Queensland, many Queensland federal Labor members should be concerned. The area of Craig Emerson’s <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/rankin.htm">seat</a> for example, had strong swings against Labor, meaning he is heading for a likely loss. Federal treasurer, Wayne Swan also should be concerned that he now doesn’t have a single Labor MP within <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/lilley.htm">his boundaries</a>.</p>
<p>Of the five federal Labor backbenchers (not including Rudd) who have seats in Queensland, Bernie Ripoll in <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/oxley.htm">Oxley</a> has the best chance of holding his seat. As well as having the biggest margin, there are still two state Labor MPs within his boundaries, including the potential new Labor leader <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/palaszczcuk-wants-to-lead-labor/story-e6freuyi-1226311432791?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailytelegraphbreakingnewsndm+%28Daily+Telegraph+%7C+Breaking+News%29">Anastasia Palaszczuk</a>. </p>
<p>His electorate neighbor, Shane Neumann in <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/blair.htm">Blair</a>, will have a more difficult task, with only part of the state seat of <a href="http://ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=703">Bundamba</a> lying within his boundaries serviced by a Labor member. The loss of <a href="http://ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=731">Ipswich</a> and <a href="http://ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=732">Ipswich West</a> gives the Liberal National Party a significant amount of extra firepower.</p>
<p>Kirsten Livermore still has one state Labor MP (in <a href="http://ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=762">Rockhampton</a>) within her boundaries, with only one other seat in the area (<a href="http://ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=735">Keppel</a>) lost at the election. Her task will still be difficult with a margin of less than 4%.</p>
<p>Labor’s two most marginal Queensland seats, <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/moreton.htm">Moreton</a> and <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/petrie.htm">Petrie</a>, will be the hardest to hold. Like electorate neighbor Swan, Yvette D’ath in Petrie has no state Labor MP within her boundaries, and to make matters worse, there are three new LNP members overlapping her seat. Graham Perrett, has parts of two Labor seats overlapping his boundaries, but there are three new state LNP MPs in other overlapping seats, with a fourth possible.</p>
<p>As I mentioned in my <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-election-which-seats-matter-for-labor-5992">previous article</a> for The Conversation, if Labor’s federal position were to improve, its best prospect of gaining a seat would be <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/brisbane.htm">Brisbane</a> (Liberal, 1.2%). This is the most marginal conservative seat in Queensland. However, Labor has lost all state seats lying within its boundaries, which makes this task all the harder.</p>
<p>An important indicator of federal voting intention is the quarterly state-by-state Newspoll, the last of which was published in late December 2011. This was an aggregation of individual Newspolls over the previous three months and it showed a two-party preferred swing of 3.9% against Labor, a swing that would see the LNP gain Moreton (1.2%), Petrie (2.5%), Lilley (3.2%), and leave Capricornia (3.7%) and Blair (4.3%) on a knife edge. </p>
<p>The next such poll, due in early April, is likely to show a similar result. The poll for the previous three months (July-September) showed a larger swing of 5.9%, which would probably take out Rankin (5.5%),and possibly Oxley (5.8%), leaving only Kevin Rudd in Griffith (8.5%) as Labor’s last man standing. </p>
<p>My own gut feeling is that if an election were held now, Labor would hold Griffith, Rankin and Oxley, and lose the other five seats.</p>
<p>While the crushing defeat of the Bligh government will damage Labor morale and boost the federal coalition and Tony Abbott, it remains the case that the news might not be all bad for federal Labor. There are still as remnants of representation in most Labor-held federal seats.</p>
<p>The loss of resources from state MPs will hurt, but it should not be assumed from this that Labor can’t win. After the 2001 Queensland election the Liberal Party held just one seat in the entire Brisbane area, yet at the 2004 federal election the Liberal Party held all its federal seats in Brisbane and even won a seat from a sitting Labor member.</p>
<p>There are serious hurdles ahead, particularly with the relative unpopularity of Julia Gillard in Queensland, but if Labor can focus its attention on some key seats in Queensland, it could limit the damage at next year’s federal poll. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/6061/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glynn Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Queensland election can tell us a lot about Labor’s electoral future. There is no doubt that if the Queensland state election landslide against Labor were extrapolated to federal boundaries, the federal…Glynn Evans, PhD Student, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/59922012-03-23T01:20:46Z2012-03-23T01:20:46ZQueensland election: which seats matter for Labor?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8910/original/hvzd7stn-1332454210.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=196%2C149%2C3881%2C2685&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Labor leader Anna Bligh is likely to lose the Queensland election, but what are the federal implications?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Jack Tran</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-22/queensland-faces-rare-change-of-government/3907176?section=qld">likely defeat</a> of the Bligh Labor government in this weekend’s Queensland elections may not have the negative implications for the Gillard government that many commentators might expect.</p>
<p>The presence of one more non-Labor premier at COAG meeting is not likely to add much difficulty for the prime minister. Nor will the defeat of the Bligh government necessarily hurt federal Labor’s prospects in Queensland. In fact were it to continue, the unpopularity of a Queensland Labor government could hurt federal Labor even more. </p>
<p>But there are also negatives resulting from a Liberal National party (LNP) win. As long as Newman is elected to parliament, his likely popularity will give the federal coalition an extra boost. This happened to the Hawke Government with the “Goss gloss” in 1990.</p>
<p>But the main damage for the Labor Party will be in the form of the loss of state seats in areas that overlap with marginal federal seats. Losses in these areas would mean a loss of resources and troops on the ground for Labor, and a corresponding rise in LNP resources.</p>
<h2>Seats of little consequence</h2>
<p>Some of Labor’s losses will be in areas that are inconsequential in a federal context. Labor is likely to lose all its Gold Coast seats, but Labor holds no seats in this region at federal level, and has no hope of winning any in 2013. </p>
<p>Similarly, the Bligh government is likely to lose its Cairns-based seats (<a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=696">Barron River</a>, <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=707">Cairns</a> and <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=751">Mulgrave</a>), but this would have little federal importance as the Liberal party’s <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=7K6">Warren Entsch</a> will certainly win the corresponding federal seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/leichhardt.htm">Leichhardt</a> next election.</p>
<p>Queensland Labor could lose all its Townsville-based seats (<a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=752">Mundingburra</a>, <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=772">Thuringowa</a> and <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=775">Townsville</a>), which would mean no representation in the federal seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/herbert.htm">Herbert</a> (LNP 2.2%). But given the fact that Labor was unable to win the seat at the 2010 election in spite of a strong candidate, former Townsville Mayor <a href="http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2010/03/19/123525_news.html">Tony Mooney</a>, it is probably not a seat Labor would hope to win anyway.</p>
<h2>Federal battlegrounds</h2>
<p>So which seats matter?</p>
<p>At the next federal election, the key battleground seats are likely to be Labor’s five most marginal seats, namely <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/moreton.htm">Moreton</a> (1.2%), <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/petrie.htm">Petrie</a> (2.5%), <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/lilley.htm">Lilley</a> (3.2%), <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/capricornia.htm">Capricornia</a> (3.7%) and <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/blair.htm">Blair</a> (4.3%). </p>
<p>The federal Coalition would be keen to win Moreton and Petrie, as both have been won by the party winning government at every election since 1990. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8914/original/y88k9d4x-1332458784.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/8914/original/y88k9d4x-1332458784.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8914/original/y88k9d4x-1332458784.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8914/original/y88k9d4x-1332458784.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8914/original/y88k9d4x-1332458784.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8914/original/y88k9d4x-1332458784.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/8914/original/y88k9d4x-1332458784.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=691&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The federal seats of Petrie and Moreton could be affected by any Labor loss in Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AEC</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Labor is likely to retain at least one overlapping state seat in all these electorates. The same applies to the three federal Labor seats with bigger margins, namely <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/rankin.htm">Rankin</a> (5.5%), <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/oxley.htm">Oxley</a> (5.8%) and <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/griffith.htm">Griffith</a> (8.5%). </p>
<p>Both Moreton and Petrie contain parts of state seats that are likely or possible LNP wins in the Queensland election, <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=749">Mount Ommaney</a>, <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=769">Stretton</a>, <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=767">Springwood</a> and <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=780">Yeerongpilly</a> in the case of Moreton and <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=753">Murrumba</a> in the case of Petrie. </p>
<p>Wayne Swan’s federal seat of Lilley includes parts of <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=719">Everton</a> and <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/myDistrict.aspx?id=768">Stafford</a>, both likely LNP gains, although the four other seats contained within are either likely Labor holds or already held by the LNP.</p>
<h2>Brisbane and Ashgrove</h2>
<p>If Labor’s federal position were to improve, its best prospect of gaining a seat would be <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/brisbane.htm">Brisbane</a> (Liberal, 1.2%). This is the most marginal conservative seat in Queensland. </p>
<p>There are several battleground state seats contained within it, including Ashgrove, the seat being contested by LNP leader Campbell Newman. There is no certainty that Labor will hold any of its seats in the area, which would make an already difficult task (winning back Brisbane) even more so.</p>
<h2>Labor chances</h2>
<p>With <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/elections/queensland-labor-faces-electoral-wipe-out-according-to-the-latest-galaxy-poll/story-fnbsqt8f-1226302880128">recent opinion polls</a> suggesting state Labor in Queensland is likely to be reduced to less than 20 seats (they currently have 51), federal Labor would be severely damaged by the loss of resources available from state sitting members. </p>
<p>But as luck would have it, the few Queensland Labor MPs that will be left are mainly in areas that lie within existing Labor-held federal seats. Victories by the LNP in seats lying within Labor’s marginal federal Labor seats will give them a boost in Labor’s two most marginal seats of Moreton and Petrie. However, the prospects for gains that stretch into the next line of marginal Labor seats are limited. </p>
<p>The damage then will not be as bad as many believe for federal Labor, but even under the best case scenario in Queensland, the Labor government in Canberra has other serious issues to deal with before the next election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/5992/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Glynn Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The likely defeat of the Bligh Labor government in this weekend’s Queensland elections may not have the negative implications for the Gillard government that many commentators might expect. The presence…Glynn Evans, PhD Student, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/50322012-01-25T03:03:07Z2012-01-25T03:03:07ZQueensland election 2012: a likely win for Newman and the LNP<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7158/original/6srkghpf-1327452515.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=275%2C133%2C3854%2C2790&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Queenslanders will get a chance to vote for either Premier Anna Bligh or leader of the LNP, Campbell Newman on March 24.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP image/John Pryke</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After much speculation, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has today <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/premier-bligh-sets-march-24-for-queensland-state-elections/story-e6frgczx-1226253131224">announced</a> the date of the up-coming state elections. The poll, now to be held on March 24, comes after a difficult year for the Bligh government. </p>
<p>The Liberal National party (LNP) seems to be on the front foot. Leader Campbell Newman is a strong contender, but doesn’t yet hold a parliamentary seat.</p>
<p>The Conversation spoke with QUT political scientist, Clive Bean, about the campaign ahead and the difficulties faced by the Labor incumbent.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>What are the main issues in the up-coming election?</strong></p>
<p>I think health will be a major issue. The administration of the Queensland health department has had a lot of recent negative publicity.</p>
<p>There’s also the issue of delivery of health services. That goes back to issues surrounding the matter of <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Queenslands-Dr-Death-linked-to-80-deaths/2005/05/24/1116700709781.html">Dr Jayant Patel</a>. And then there’s the very recent matter of an <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/police-seeking-queensland-health-executive-joel-barlow-over-15m-procurement-irregularity/story-e6freoof-1226218269426">employee defrauding</a> the Queensland health department, which only added to a perception that those running the department do not have things under control. </p>
<p>So the government will be on the defensive over many matters to do with health.</p>
<p>Other key issues include coal seam gas, which seems to be shaping up as one that could be harmful to the government. But it’s hard to tell at this stage whether it will become a really major issue throughout the campaign or not. </p>
<p>Another is the matter of leadership and trust. That relates partly to Premier Anna Bligh’s leadership. It relates to some of her policies in the last term of office, in particular the privatisation of Queensland government assets. This was done without prior consultation with the electorate and is very closely associated with the premier herself. The government will have to defend its record.</p>
<p>But the leadership factor also has an interesting twist: the leader of the opposition isn’t an elected politician. So the LNP has it’s own leadership matters to juggle.</p>
<p><strong>What are some of the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate? How will they run their respective campaigns?</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7157/original/npy9y5r6-1327452113.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7157/original/npy9y5r6-1327452113.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7157/original/npy9y5r6-1327452113.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7157/original/npy9y5r6-1327452113.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7157/original/npy9y5r6-1327452113.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7157/original/npy9y5r6-1327452113.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7157/original/npy9y5r6-1327452113.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=468&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/John Pryke</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>I think they’re both strong campaigners, they’re both good leaders who tend to lead from the front. They are both effective at putting their message across to the public, both through the media and in person. </p>
<p>I think Anna Bligh’s greatest weakness is the policy legacy of the party in government. [Labor] has been in government now for a long time, close to 14 years, and the public tends to get to the point where they get a little bit tired. They start thinking that change might not be a bad thing. </p>
<p>In the last few elections, the LNP hasn’t really been in a position to challenge strongly because the Labor party had such a big majority. But now it’s definitely within sight, and the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-25/lnp-starts-favourite-for-march-poll/3792352?section=qld">opinion polls</a> are showing that they have a very good chance of winning government. </p>
<p>So Anna Bligh will tend to be on the back foot. She will remind people about her leadership during the flood crisis last year. But I think the policy record of the government will be the thing that she’s often challenged about, particularly the policies she has enacted herself. </p>
<p>Campbell Newman is a very strong, positive speaker. He has shown a little bit of vulnerability in his transition from local government to state politics. He’s being asked more personal questions which he clearly feels aren’t appropriate. Sometimes his responses are a little bit defensive. He probably needs to concentrate on an ongoing, positive campaign message, not allowing himself to be sidetracked by things like that.</p>
<p><strong>Bligh said <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-23/poll-date-wait/3788122?section=qld">she would wait</a> until after the Queensland flood commission released its report to have the election. Will the report make a difference for voters?</strong> </p>
<p>I’m not sure it will make that much difference to people’s voting intentions. I think there is a perception that the government can’t be held responsible for these natural disasters. </p>
<p>It’s a relatively widespread feeling that the government responded well in the circumstances. On the other hand, the government probably won’t get a lot of kudos from the report because the kudos they got was around a year or so ago. </p>
<p>Some people may be concerned by the fact that not everything has been fixed up. But others will be moving on with their lives and not necessarily attributing great credit to the government for what’s happened in the wake of it.</p>
<p><strong>What would a Bligh loss mean for Labor federally? What would it cost the Labor brand?</strong></p>
<p>To some extent it depends how big the loss is. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7160/original/jxr6mypv-1327453806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/7160/original/jxr6mypv-1327453806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7160/original/jxr6mypv-1327453806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7160/original/jxr6mypv-1327453806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7160/original/jxr6mypv-1327453806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7160/original/jxr6mypv-1327453806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/7160/original/jxr6mypv-1327453806.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1134&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/John Pryke</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>If there was a debacle like in NSW then I think Labor across the country would feel under a lot of pressure. That would probably have federal implications. </p>
<p>If the Queensland Labor government loses by a more moderate margin, after the long period they’ve had in office, that wouldn’t be seen as terribly significant in the long term. If the federal government doesn’t go to an election until next year, then all it’s likely to do is tell them what they already know: they will find it hard to garner strong support in Queensland in the next election. </p>
<p><strong>How can Campbell Newman win the election if he’s not technically the opposition leader?</strong></p>
<p>He can win because he’s the leader of the party and the party has agreed that is his role. But he must win a seat in parliament in his own right to be the leader of the parliamentary party. If he didn’t win the seat then the party would have to find somebody else to be the leader.</p>
<p>And it’s conceivable, although unlikely, that the LNP could win the election but the leader may not win his seat. It’s a complication and an interesting side issue to the campaign.</p>
<p><strong>What role will Bob Katter’s Australian Party play?</strong></p>
<p>Katter’s party will be the wild card in the election. I think in the absence of that party, we’d probably be talking about a fairly comfortable win by the LNP. The Australian party may make it a little bit more difficult for them but I think in the end that party will be nuisance value to the major parties, particularly the LNP. It may win a few seats, but it probably won’t stop the LNP from winning government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/5032/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Clive Bean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After much speculation, Queensland Premier Anna Bligh has today announced the date of the up-coming state elections. The poll, now to be held on March 24, comes after a difficult year for the Bligh government…Clive Bean, Professor, Political Science, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.