tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/loadshedding-23654/articlesloadshedding – The Conversation2024-02-09T14:29:46Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2232052024-02-09T14:29:46Z2024-02-09T14:29:46ZSouth African president Cyril Ramaphosa aims for upbeat tone in annual address, but fails to impress a jaundiced electorate<p>This year’s <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-2024-state-nation-address-08-feb-2024">State of the Nation Address</a> – delivered annually in February by South Africa’s president – was bound to be stuffed with electioneering messages and slogans. The country goes to the polls <a href="https://www.eisa.org/election-calendar/">any time between May and August</a> and there was no doubt that Cyril Ramaphosa would use the occasion to burnish the governing African National Congress’s reputation.</p>
<p>That’s indeed what he did. The upcoming elections are the most significant since the country became a democracy in 1994. Numerous opinion polls suggest the ANC will <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/news/latest-news/opinion/2024/2024-02/new-poll-shows-dramatic-decline-in-electoral-support-of-anc.html">fall below 50%</a> of the vote nationally for the first time, providing opportunities for opposition coalitions. A party needs to win <a href="https://www.gov.za/CoalitionsDialogue/faqs">50%</a> or more of the seats in parliament to form a government on its own. </p>
<p>Adding to the moment was the fact that this was the last state of the nation address of Ramaphosa’s term.</p>
<p>In his 105-minute address Ramaphosa tried to remind his audience of the government’s achievements over the past three decades of democracy. </p>
<p>These included 200 prosecutions for corruption, and new public-private partnerships to build power transmission lines. </p>
<p>The omissions included the persistence of <a href="https://southafrica.un.org/en/123531-slow-violence-malnutrition-south-africa">chronic malnutrition</a>, and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-revolting-against-inept-local-government-why-it-matters-155483">distressing number of ANC-run municipalities</a> whose sewage treatment plants have broken down, which can no longer bill for electricity, and which fail to repair potholed roads.</p>
<p>As a political scientist I’ve <a href="https://journals.co.za/doi/abs/10.10520/nagenda_v2021_n80_a5">studied</a> South African politics for many years.</p>
<p>The president’s speech – looking back and ahead – couldn’t cover up the fact that the last five years have been some of the most difficult for ordinary South Africans. Power cuts have <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-and-food-safety-how-to-avoid-illness-during-loadshedding-200586">become more severe</a>, <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/media-statements/statistics-south-africa-quarterly-labour-force-survey-quarter-three-2023-14#:%7E:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20according%20to,000%20over%20the%20same%20period.">joblessness</a> continues to rise and the economy is performing <a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/statements/monetary-policy-statements/2024/january/Statement%20of%20the%20Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20January%202024.pdf">poorly</a>. </p>
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<p>If he was hoping to liven up the ANC’s election chances, his speech might just not do it. </p>
<h2>The contested record</h2>
<p>Ramaphosa listed a number of achievements of the last 30 years as testimony of the advances made under successive ANC governments. But many of the claims rang hollow.</p>
<p><strong>Poverty:</strong> In 1994 71% of South Africa’s population lived in poverty; today 55% do, <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-2024-state-nation-address-08-feb-2024">he said</a>, citing World Bank figures. He gave an example of a girl born in 1994 whose parents live in a house built by the state, who got a child grant, went to a free school with free meals, and obtained a bursary to graduate from a training college and start earning a living.</p>
<p>All this is true for millions of South Africans. The problem is that it’s not for millions of others. </p>
<p><strong>Employment:</strong> The president devoted paragraphs of his speech to job opportunities created by various government programmes. </p>
<p>But this too was heavily criticised. To my knowledge, the phrase “job opportunity” is state-speak for a temporary job which always ends, usually after three months, to then be offered to someone else in the unemployment queue. Real unemployment – the expanded definition – is <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/Media%20release%20QLFS%20Q4%202022.pdf">around 42%</a>, up from 15% <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13167/w13167.pdf">in 1994</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Energy:</strong> On the continuing power cuts Ramaphosa <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/state-nation-address-president-cyril-ramaphosa-cape-town-city-hall-2">pledged</a> that</p>
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<p>the worst is behind us and an end to load-shedding is in reach.</p>
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<p>He said public-private partnerships are building 14,000km of transmission cables. These will link up new solar and other power plants to an augmented national grid. </p>
<p>But South Africans have grown weary of unfulfilled promises. Many have been made before. People have become cynical about pledges of future electricity improvements. Sadly, the state power utility, Eskom, could not celebrate 2023 as its centenary. Last year saw the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-22/south-africa-faces-two-more-years-of-power-outages-eskom-says">worst power cuts in the country’s history</a>.</p>
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<p><strong>Investment and black ownership:</strong> The president reported that R1.5 trillion (US$79 billion) of new investment had come into South Africa since 2018, and that black ownership of mining had risen from 2% in 1994 to 39% today. A quarter of agricultural private land was now owned by black farmers, and the government’s goal of one-third of farm land being returned to black farmers by 2030 was now in reach. </p>
<p>But evidence shows land reform has a mixed record of <a href="https://www.da.org.za/2022/11/ancs-land-reform-shame-75-of-land-reform-farms-have-failed">successes and failures</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Minimum wage:</strong> Ramaphosa took a swipe at the official opposition, the Democratic Alliance, by reminding South Africans that 6 million workers had had their pay raised by national minimum wages over the past few years. </p>
<p>The Democratic Alliance is <a href="https://www.da.org.za/2020/12/da-opposes-national-minimum-wage-commissions-proposed-increases">opposed to minimum wages</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Social grants:</strong> Ramaphosa listed a host of social security measures. These included 9 million people on <a href="https://www.gov.za/services/services-residents/social-benefits/social-relief-distress">Social Relief of Distress</a> grants (R350 or US$18.42 a month) which started during the COVID pandemic, and the 9 million school children receiving a free lunch daily. There are <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=16711">62 million</a> South Africans. </p>
<p>But even here the real story isn’t all that good. Malnutrition and hunger remain stubbornly persistent. National statistics show that <a href="https://southafrica.un.org/en/123531-slow-violence-malnutrition-south-africa">27% of children are stunted</a> – under weight and under height for their age. Child grants cannot feed both a baby and its unemployed single mother. </p>
<p><strong>Health:</strong> the president spoke of a new academic hospital under construction <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/limpopo-get-new-academic-hospital">in Limpopo province</a>. He did not mention that hundreds of newly graduated doctors cannot find jobs in the public health sector due to budget cuts compelling a <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/health/2024-02-07-this-is-why-the-health-department-cannot-employ-new-doctors/#:%7E:text=SA%20has%20close%20to%20700,afford%20to%20employ%20these%20professionals">freeze on filling empty posts</a>.</p>
<h2>What was left unsaid</h2>
<p>In my view South Africans won’t be impressed by the speech. Previous State of the Nation addresses have not been followed by implementation. In one ill-advised one <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-2019-state-nation-address-07-feb-2019">in 2019</a>, the president fantasised about bullet trains, when his audience were desperately waiting for the resumption of service on slow train commuting routes. They still are.</p>
<p>The 2024 speech offers fertile material for opposition parties to score points against the ANC. They have already started to do so in <a href="https://www.enca.com/top-stories/sona-2024-opposition-parties-criticise-story-tintswalo">TV interviews</a> and other <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/business-opinion/750354/sona-2024-reactions-ramaphosa-pats-himself-on-the-back-while-south-africa-sits-in-crisis/">media</a>: promises of an end to power cuts attract the most sarcasm.</p>
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<p>This address had to be held in the old Cape Town city hall, rented from a DA-controlled municipality, because negligent security failed to prevent an arsonist from <a href="https://www.parliament.gov.za/press-releases/media-statement-further-measures-regarding-parliament-fire-incident-and-alleged-administrative-irregularities">burning down the parliament building</a> on Jauary 2022 – symptomatic of general state incompetence.</p>
<p>Parliamentary practice is that opposition parties are given at least two full days to criticise the State of the Nation address and to present their alternatives. </p>
<p>This address by and large repeats what the ANC and government have already said on several occasions. Likewise, the opposition responses are not new. It will be more of the same from both sides all the way to voting day.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/223205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is a member of the African National Congress, but writes this piece in his professional capacity as a political scientist.</span></em></p>The president’s speech couldn’t cover up for the fact that the last five years have been among the most difficult for ordinary South Africans.Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2208542024-02-01T14:24:32Z2024-02-01T14:24:32ZSouth Africans are opting to go off-grid: how they’re being helped, and hindered, in their efforts<p>Eskom, South Africa’s state-owned power utility, struggles to generate and supply a stable flow of electricity to meet demand. In 2023, there were times when households and businesses had no power for <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/18/energy/ramaphosa-davos-south-africa-blackouts/index.html">up to 11 hours a day</a>. Eskom has warned that load shedding will be <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/520867-south-africa-just-had-its-worst-year-of-load-shedding-eskom-warns-to-expect-even-worse-in-2024.html#:%7E:text=The%20outlook%20between%201%20January,for%20the%20whole%20of%202024.">worse</a> in 2024.</p>
<p>The result is that many <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/477215-goodbye-eskom-power-cuts-forcing-south-africans-to-build-private-solar.html#:%7E:text=Factories%2C%20mines%2C%20farms%2C%20businesses,with%20in%2Dhouse%20power%20generation.">South Africans are choosing to end or reduce their dependence on the national electricity grid</a>. The approaches people are taking are still <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924#:%7E:text=The%20result%20is%20that%20South,all%20their%20electricity%20in%2Dhouse.">evolving</a>. Some are choosing to cut off their reliance on local government, which is responsible for local electricity distribution and reticulation. Others are opting to add solar and battery power while retaining municipal power for backup.</p>
<p>The move away from reliance on the grid points to a pressing need for clarity and support in the legal and regulatory environment. The shift raises complex legal and regulatory challenges, which we dealt with in a recent <a href="https://perjournal.co.za/article/view/15637">paper</a>. </p>
<p>We examined whether South Africa’s law allows individual households to generate their own power and disconnect their properties from the grid. And, if so, whether the regulatory framework is tailored to enable and empower them to do so.</p>
<p>Our paper also sought to address whether off-grid technological advances can coexist with – or are hindered by – existing regulations. </p>
<p>We found that there’s no national legislation that deals with delinking from the national grid. Instead, local ordinances and zoning regulations indirectly accommodate and facilitate the off-grid transition.</p>
<p>In South Africa, local government – municipalities – play an important role in delivering basic services, including electricity. The financial stability of these municipalities hinges, in large part, on the revenue they generate from selling electricity to consumers. Without it, most would collapse. </p>
<p>This means that while transitioning to off-grid solutions may be beneficial to individuals who can afford it, completely abandoning reliance on the grid would be disastrous for broader society. It would hobble the ability of municipalities to provide other basic services such as water and refuse removal.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/same-old-funding-model-cant-keep-south-african-cities-going-or-serve-residents-165182">Same old funding model can't keep South African cities going or serve residents</a>
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<p>We also found that homeowners face uncertainty about the legal and financial implications of moving off-grid. This includes questions about their obligations to pay municipal charges for services they no longer use.</p>
<p>Our research is essential for understanding and potentially reshaping the legal landscape to better accommodate and encourage off-grid electricity solutions in South Africa.</p>
<h2>Changing landscape</h2>
<p>The shift towards solar energy in South Africa has seen <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/07/28/2023/why-solar-power-is-booming-in-south-africa">a remarkable surge</a>. This reflects a growing trend among companies and citizens to seek alternative energy solutions. </p>
<p>Many factories, mines, farms, businesses, and individuals are now <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">actively reducing their dependence on power utility Eskom’s network</a> by integrating solar energy. This trend is driven by the desire to lower electricity bills as well as the need for a reliable backup during power outages. </p>
<p>At present, those who have invested in in-house solar capacity often maintain their connection to the main grid to cover periods when solar power is insufficient or unavailable.</p>
<p>South African energy expert Anton Eberhard, using data from Eskom, has <a href="https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/renewables/weekly-data-south-africas-unprecedented-rooftop-solar-boom/">highlighted this significant transition</a>. According to his analysis, the installed capacity of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in South Africa has <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/709246/new-solar-record-for-south-africa/">more than quadrupled</a> from March 2022 and June 2023. </p>
<p>Rooftop solar energy is a popular alternative because the country has <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-southern-africas-interior-is-an-ideal-place-to-generate-solar-energy-161030">high sunlight levels</a>. It enjoys an average of <a href="https://www.gov.za/news/speeches/minister-gwede-mantsashe-solar-power-africa-2022-conference-cticc-17-feb-2022">2,500 hours of sunshine</a> every year. </p>
<h2>The role of local government</h2>
<p>Legislation mandates Eskom to generate electricity and sell it in bulk to municipalities. They then reticulate it to consumers. This means that local government is a significant stakeholder in the transition of consumers to off-grid power.</p>
<p>Municipalities have the mandate to provide basic services, including electricity. Yet they stand to lose an important revenue source if more of their customers reduce electricity usage or delink from the grid.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">Power cuts in South Africa: trend to get off the grid is gathering pace, but total independence is still a way off</a>
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<p>That’s why municipalities should revise their by-laws to create regulatory mechanisms for managing such a transition. By implementing by-laws that regulate electricity generation by consumers and their ability to feed into the grid, local governments can create an enabling environment for those who want to go off grid.</p>
<p>The consent of municipalities is essential for those looking to adopt off-grid solutions. Various municipalities have, over the past three years, introduced regulations and by-laws that typically require compliance with safety and quality guidelines. These by-laws also ensure that off-grid installations, like solar panels, are safe and effective.</p>
<p>In addition, municipalities require adherence to specific by-laws for consumers opting for a dual system: wanting to maintain connection to the grid while also installing small scale embedded generation systems, such as solar panels. Registration of these systems is often mandated for legal compliance and safety. </p>
<p>This makes municipalities regulatory bodies as well as enablers in the shift towards sustainable and self-sufficient electricity generation. By setting these regulatory frameworks, they provide a structured path for consumers to pursue off-grid solutions. In turn, this aligns with the broader national goals of energy security and sustainability. </p>
<p>Many municipalities also understand the need to create an enabling environment for households to generate their own power and sell their excess electricity to the national grid. </p>
<p>For example, in January 2023, the City of Cape Town <a href="https://www.itweb.co.za/content/WnxpE74YdKKMV8XL">announced incentives</a> for consumers who sell their surplus green energy to the national grid. These households can get credits against their other municipal accounts. </p>
<p>But we found that there wasn’t consistency in approach. There are still many municipalities that don’t see their role as enabling households to make the shift to cleaner energy choices.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220854/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Germarié Viljoen is part of the research project 'Water-Energy-Food communities in South Africa: multi-actor nexus governance for social justice?' and therefore supported by the National Research Foundation (NRF) of South Africa and the Dutch Research Council (De Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek). Project UID 129352.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Felix Dube does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A growing number of people are opting to generate their own renewable energy and escape load shedding.Germarié Viljoen, Associate Professor of Law at the Faculty of Law, North-West UniversityFelix Dube, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Public Law, Faculty of Law, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2166502023-11-09T14:10:05Z2023-11-09T14:10:05ZTourists are returning to South Africa – but the sector will need to go green to deal with the country’s electricity crisis<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/557698/original/file-20231106-28-68rqbi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If South Africa wants to keep its tourism wheels turning, reliable, renewable energy is key.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Xinhua News Agency</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the past 16 years South Africans have dreaded rolling power cuts euphemistically dubbed “loadshedding”. These are caused by the ailing state power entity Eskom’s <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64594499">crumbling infrastructure</a> and its over-reliance on ageing and poorly maintained <a href="https://www.csir.co.za/sites/default/files/Documents/Statistics%20of%20power%20in%20SA%202022-CSIR-%5BFINAL%5D.pdf">coal-fired power stations</a>. Loadshedding has worsened in 2023, with some areas experiencing power cuts for <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-will-continue-until-2025-and-blackouts-will-take-5-years-to-phase-out-206343">up to 10 hours a day</a>.</p>
<p>This crisis affects every aspect of the country’s economy, including its vibrant tourism sector. Tourism is a vital contributor to the South African economy. In 2019 the country welcomed <a href="https://live.southafrica.net/media/299000/south-african-tourism-annual-report-2020-21.pdf#page=14">over 10 million foreign visitors</a>. The sector contributed <a href="https://wttc.org/news-article/south-africas-travel-and-tourisms-growth-to-outpace-the-national-economy-for-the-next-10-years#:%7E:text=In%202019%2C%20the%20South%20African,represented%20a%20staggering%2055.6%25%20loss.">up to 6.4%</a> of the gross domestic product along with <a href="https://live.southafrica.net/media/299000/south-african-tourism-annual-report-2020-21.pdf#page=16">1.5 million jobs</a> (9.3% of total jobs). </p>
<p>These figures have contracted significantly because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Visitors <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=16327#:%7E:text=The%20volume%20of%20tourist%20arrivals%20increased%20by%20152%2C6%25%20from,pre%2Dpandemic%20year%20of%202019">are returning</a>. But the financial recovery and viability of the sector, which is composed mainly of small businesses, continues to be hampered by the electricity crisis. </p>
<p>If tourism businesses are to literally and figuratively keep the lights on they must transition towards renewable electricity generation. There are three reasons for this. First, providing consistent electricity to their guests is essential for any tourism business. Second, renewable energy is less damaging to the environment than coal-based generation and its greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, customers are increasingly aware of environmental concerns. Many <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0261517715300443">demand more sustainable tourism products</a> and adjust their travel choices accordingly.</p>
<p>We are a team of interdisciplinary researchers with interests in tourism, sustainability and the environment who recently collaborated on <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14616688.2023.2274836">a research paper</a> that studied South Africa’s potential to break away from old forms of energy generation towards low carbon electricity generation. There are already some positive moves in this direction. But much more remains to be done. This will require the tourism industry and other economic sectors to step up. </p>
<h2>What’s already being done</h2>
<p>Some work is already being done to enhance the tourism sector’s environmental sustainability. The government’s <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.za/AboutNDT/Publications/Tourism%20Environmental%20Implementation%20Plan.pdf">Tourism Environmental Implementation Plan</a>, published in 2021, facilitates greater participation by tourism establishments in renewable electricity generation and saving. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-will-continue-until-2025-and-blackouts-will-take-5-years-to-phase-out-206343">South Africa's power crisis will continue until 2025 - and blackouts will take 5 years to phase out</a>
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<p>One initiative included in the plan is the tourism department’s Green Tourism Incentive Programme. It supports small tourism businesses by providing free energy and water audits. These can lead to improved efficiencies and the introduction of subsidised renewable energy systems. So far, 111 renewable energy projects have <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.za/CurrentProjects/Green_Tourism_Incentive_Programme/pages/Green_tourism_incentive_programme.aspx">been funded</a>. The Green Tourism Incentive Programme pays approximately two-thirds of investments. Individual businesses finance the remaining third.</p>
<p>In the private sector, the City Lodge hotel group shows what can be achieved by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZ-fe1Hvo0o">installing renewable energy systems</a>. In 2020, solar panels generated <a href="https://www.city-reports.co.za/reports/integrated-report-2022/pdf/full-iar.pdf#page=85">just over 10%</a> of the electricity requirements of the group’s 59 hotels. </p>
<p>Nature-based tourism is one of the mainstays of South African tourism products. South African National Parks, the body that manages national parks, has installed solar PV panels at 19 of its 21 parks. It is also <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/sanparks-on-its-way-to-net-zero-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-reducing-carbon-footprint-6f7e13ff-8ba1-4908-9b74-440a0d3c1cf7">putting in place other low-carbon strategies as well as climate adaptation plans</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/worlds-beaches-are-changing-because-of-climate-change-green-thinking-is-needed-to-save-them-211953">World's beaches are changing because of climate change - green thinking is needed to save them</a>
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<h2>Getting it done</h2>
<p>While these examples are encouraging, they remain limited in size and scope. Most innovation in South Africa towards sustainable energy generation has been self-funded as a business survival strategy to deal with the consequences of power cuts. The shift to renewable electricity, along with its greenhouse gas and air pollution benefits, is a happy coincidence. </p>
<p>A broader transition, helped by access to finance on terms that can smooth its way, is necessary to bring about a system change for tourism. This can place the sector on a path that decouples it from coal-based electricity. It will also ensure that small businesses can adopt renewable electricity.</p>
<p>The green energy shift in tourism is <a href="https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/sectors/tourism/eu-tourism-transition/green-transition-tourism_en">already taking place</a> in developed economies in Europe. Turkey is another encouraging example. It has introduced a <a href="https://www.gstcouncil.org/turkiye-national-sustainable-tourism-program/">sustainable tourism programme</a>; solar PV panels are used widely by businesses and households alike. </p>
<p>Through shifting the tourism sector to renewable energy, tourism in South Africa can be part of the just transition too. This transition must include small and community-based tourism players. And, while tourism must play its part, other economic sectors should also step up.</p>
<p>Supportive South African policies are indispensable in developing an enabling environment for sustainability transitions. The state and its institutions must take greater responsibility and accountability to advance the social sustainability of energy policies. One way this could happen is by making the Green Tourism Incentive Programme more accessible to tourism enterprises across the country. </p>
<p><em>Kate Rivett-Carnac co-authored the research on which this article is based.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/216650/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Irma Booyens is affiliated with the School of Tourism and Hospitality, University of Johannesburg, South Africa</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gijsbert Hoogendoorn and Kristy Langerman do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Some work is already being done to enhance the tourism sector’s environmental sustainability.Gijsbert Hoogendoorn, Professor in Tourism Geography, University of JohannesburgIrma Booyens, Senior Lecturer in Hospitality and Tourism Management, University of Strathclyde Kristy Langerman, Associate professor, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2149752023-10-05T12:18:21Z2023-10-05T12:18:21ZJohannesburg has been hit by severe water shortages: new plan to manage the crisis isn’t the answer<p><em>Johannesburg and its surrounds, at the centre of the industrial heartland of South Africa, have been hit by severe water cuts. Water interruptions have been happening <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-biggest-cities-are-out-of-water-but-the-dams-are-full-whats-gone-wrong-192762">for years</a>, but they have been scaled up dramatically in recent weeks. The deteriorating situation recently forced the Minister of Water and Sanitation, Senzo Mchunu, to intervene. On 27 September he announced a new initiative – <a href="https://www.dws.gov.za/Communications/PressReleases/2023/MS%20-%20Water%20and%20Sanitation%20Ministry%20calls%20for%20improved%20water%20supply%20management%20in%20GP_F.pdf">“water-shifting”</a>. The proposal has echoes of “<a href="https://www.joburg.org.za/departments_/Pages/MOEs/city%20power/What-is-load-shedding.aspx">load-shedding</a>”, the term used for the planned power outages which have become a common feature of life for all South Africans. Anja du Plessis, a water management expert, explains the new water initiative.</em></p>
<h2>When did water outages start, and what are the latest developments?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202208/47133gon2327.pdf">Freshwater challenges</a> are a frequent occurrence in South Africa. These include increased pressure on the amount of freshwater available for use, unequal distribution and lack of access to clean water and sanitation services. </p>
<p>Gauteng province, the country’s economic hub, has not been spared. The water crisis has been driven by a number of factors: </p>
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<li><p>the <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-biggest-cities-are-out-of-water-but-the-dams-are-full-whats-gone-wrong-192762">overall decay in the quality and state of water infrastructure</a> – it is at risk of total collapse in some areas</p></li>
<li><p>droughts </p></li>
<li><p>alleged corruption, which has affected the functioning of municipalities and municipal treatment plants.</p></li>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cholera-in-south-africa-a-symptom-of-two-decades-of-continued-sewage-pollution-and-neglect-206141">Cholera in South Africa: a symptom of two decades of continued sewage pollution and neglect</a>
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<p>Neither the national nor regional water authorities have managed to find solutions to the water crisis. Rather, the situation has deteriorated. In the last few months some consumers, such as those living in the suburb of <a href="https://www.enca.com/top-stories/taps-still-dry-brixton-and-other-parts-joburg">Brixton</a>, west of central Johannesburg, have had dry taps for more than three weeks. </p>
<p>Water tankers have been brought in to provide supplies. But residents complain that these are <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-09-22-johannesburg-waters-haemorrhaging-supply-continues-to-dry-up-leaving-desperate-residents-pleading-for-relief/">unreliable</a> and they don’t trust <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2023-09-29-explained-what-is-water-shifting-and-why-is-gauteng-introducing-it/">the quality of water</a>. Some people use it only to bath and flush toilets, and buy bottled water for drinking and cooking. </p>
<p>Three weeks ago the national and regional water authorities announced a plan that would spread the impact of water cuts between communities. The term the politicians coined for the new measures is “<a href="https://www.dws.gov.za/Communications/PressReleases/2023/MS%20-%20Water%20and%20Sanitation%20Ministry%20calls%20for%20improved%20water%20supply%20management%20in%20GP_F.pdf">water-shifting</a>”.</p>
<h2>What is ‘water-shifting’ and how will it work?</h2>
<p>The plan is to begin “sharing” water to take the pressure off the worst affected areas. By and large, high-lying areas of the city have been the <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2023-09-29-explained-what-is-water-shifting-and-why-is-gauteng-introducing-it/">hardest hit</a>.</p>
<p>The reason for this is that the <a href="https://mes100.com/docs/water-reticulation-benchmark/#:%7E:text=Water%20reticulation%20is%20water%20distribution,and%20delivered%20to%20its%20destination.">distribution of water</a> requires pressure, which comes from a water source – a reservoir or water tower. When pressure is lost within the system, high-lying areas are usually affected first as there is not enough pressure in the system to get the water to them. </p>
<p>Pressure is lost when reservoirs reach critically low levels. This can happen as a result of leakages, burst pipes, above-average water consumption or <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">power outages which affect pump stations</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://ewn.co.za/2023/09/22/water-systems-out-of-capacity-or-on-their-knees-warns-joburg-water">Any of these can</a> lead to pressure decreasing at a rapid rate. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">Power cuts in South Africa are playing havoc with the country's water system</a>
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<p>Johannesburg’s water utility, <a href="https://www.randwater.co.za/">Rand Water</a>, plans to shift water from a reticulation system with sufficient pressure to a struggling system. The idea is to provide an <a href="https://www.dws.gov.za/Communications/PressReleases/2023/MS%20-%20Water%20and%20Sanitation%20Ministry%20calls%20for%20improved%20water%20supply%20management%20in%20GP_F.pdf">equitable supply of water to municipal customers</a>. </p>
<p>Rand Water will implement water-shifting as an interim measure to assist in the recovery of struggling reticulation systems. An implementation date has not been given. </p>
<p>But <a href="https://www.johannesburgwater.co.za/">Johannesburg Water</a>, which is responsible for supplying water to the city’s residents, needs to <a href="https://www.dws.gov.za/Communications/PressReleases/2023/MS%20-%20Water%20and%20Sanitation%20Ministry%20calls%20for%20improved%20water%20supply%20management%20in%20GP_F.pdf">develop and present a water management plan</a> to address the crisis. </p>
<h2>Could this crisis have been avoided?</h2>
<p>In short, yes. The Gauteng province metropolitan councils are perfect examples of the effects of poor water governance and management as well as lack of political will <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-biggest-cities-are-out-of-water-but-the-dams-are-full-whats-gone-wrong-192762">over the past two decades</a>. This has led to a lack of investment and underfunding of bulk water and sanitation infrastructure. </p>
<p>The result is that the water infrastructure, from water supply to treatment, storage, water resources and management, <a href="https://www.gcro.ac.za/outputs/map-of-the-month/detail/water-interruptions-gauteng/">has fallen into disrepair</a>. Also at play is a lack of planning and management of growing water demands due to increased population, migration and expansion of settlements. The poor <a href="https://mg.co.za/special-reports/2022-03-15-water-conservation-and-water-demand-management-in-johannesburg/#:%7E:text=Johannesburg%20Water%20sources%20its%20water,other%20areas%20of%20the%20country">management and overall lack of water and sanitation delivery and services</a> is another factor.</p>
<p>There have been frequent water cuts in the province over the past five years. An estimated 30% of the province’s residents reported frequent water interruptions in <a href="https://www.gcro.ac.za/outputs/map-of-the-month/detail/water-interruptions-gauteng/">2017/18</a>, increasing to 33% in <a href="https://www.gcro.ac.za/outputs/map-of-the-month/detail/water-interruptions-gauteng/">2020/2021</a>. </p>
<p>Johannesburg isn’t alone. The <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202208/47133gon2327.pdf">poor state of water infrastructure across the country</a> has been an issue for many years.</p>
<p>A detailed account was <a href="https://saice.org.za/downloads/SAICE-2022-Infrastructure-Report-Card.pdf">set out</a> by the South African Institution of Civil Engineering in 2022. It showed that the country’s water infrastructure had deteriorated to the point that it was at risk of failing. The report called for prompt action to avoid severe water supply shortages. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this wasn’t heeded.</p>
<p>Other factors have contributed to the water crisis too. </p>
<p>Firstly, there’s been continuous high consumption by consumers, partly due to increased temperatures. The province’s residents consume an estimated <a href="https://twitter.com/Rand_Water/status/1580919219176189953">300 litres</a> (which includes water losses) each a day, compared to the global average of 173 litres. </p>
<p>Another factor has been the amount of water being lost. In Johannesburg, for example, a minimum of 41% of treated potable water supplied by Rand Water to Johannesburg Water is lost before it even reaches the consumer. This is referred to as <a href="https://ws.dws.gov.za/IRIS/releases/NDWR.pdf">non-revenue water by the municipality</a>. Water is primarily lost through leakages and bursting pipes, attributed to <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-biggest-cities-are-out-of-water-but-the-dams-are-full-whats-gone-wrong-192762">poor operation and maintenance</a>.</p>
<h2>Is ‘water-shifting’ a solution?</h2>
<p>The Minister of <a href="https://www.dws.gov.za/Communications/PressReleases/2023/MS%20-%20Water%20and%20Sanitation%20Ministry%20calls%20for%20improved%20water%20supply%20management%20in%20GP_F.pdf">Water and Sanitation</a> has made it clear that this is an interim measure. </p>
<p>But even as an interim measure it will require a high level of political will as well as technical expertise <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2023-09-29-explained-what-is-water-shifting-and-why-is-gauteng-introducing-it/">to work</a>. </p>
<p>“Water-shifting” should not be a permanent measure or become the norm as it does not address the cause of the current crisis. Potable water will still be lost through leaking and burst pipes.</p>
<p>Relevant stakeholders, including the Department of Water and Sanitation, Rand Water and municipalities such as the City of Johannesburg need to stop the blame game and work together to address the primary causes of the water challenges, instead of the symptoms. The dilapidated state of water infrastructure needs to be addressed as a matter of urgency to avoid water rationing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214975/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anja du Plessis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>‘Water-shifting’ should not be a permanent measure. It does not address the cause of the current crisis.Anja du Plessis, Associate Professor and Water Management Expert, University of South AfricaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2063432023-06-07T08:50:39Z2023-06-07T08:50:39ZSouth Africa’s power crisis will continue until 2025 - and blackouts will take 5 years to phase out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530127/original/file-20230605-15-fk3adz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A power outage stops play during a match between two leading rugby teams in Pretoria in early June. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Johan Rynners/Gallo Images/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa is in the middle of a <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-05-18-eskoms-stage-8-warning-is-a-chilling-prospect-for-sas-economy/">severe electricity crisis</a>, with enforced power cuts that have worsened every year. Electricity is sometimes unavailable for 10 hours a day. The shortfall is the consequence of frequent breakdowns at its ageing <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/features-analysis/loadshedding-in-winter-whats-that-going-to-be-like/">coal power plants, which constitute 74% of the country’s generating capacity</a>.</p>
<p>In theory, improving the performance and reliability of the existing coal plants would resolve the power crisis. This <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/mantashe-claims-eskoms-power-crisis-can-be-fixed-in-6-to-12-months-2023-01-13">remedy is promoted in some quarters</a>. But it’s easier said than done. To function satisfactorily, many of the plants would require a complete overhaul, which would be both time consuming and prohibitively costly.</p>
<p>Estimates suggest that South Africa <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/generation/eskoms-own-figures-show-the-power-generation-crisis-is-worsening/">needs around 6,000MW of extra capacity</a> to overcome the current deficit. The following sections explain why I predict it is likely to require as long as five years to eradicate this shortfall, though partial improvement should already be felt by the end of 2024.</p>
<p>Building new coal, nuclear or gas plants is still being considered to improve future power supply, but these typically require construction times of 10 years. They would therefore not play a role in the short- to medium-term period under consideration, and I don’t discuss them further here.</p>
<h2>Time lines for fixing existing power stations</h2>
<p>The 4,800MW <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/465317-eskom-gives-update-on-medupi-and-kusile-power-plants-and-its-not-good-news.html">Kusile and its twin Medupi</a> are the two largest power stations in South Africa, and among the biggest coal plants in the world. Their construction was commissioned in 2007. At the time they were expected to guarantee South Africa ample electricity supply and allow the decommissioning of older plants.</p>
<p>But the construction of the plants <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-07-07-medupi-kusile-and-the-massive-costtime-overrun/">proceeded disastrously</a>. Costs escalated to more than double the initial projections and construction was much slower than anticipated. One of Kusile’s six units has still not been finished. </p>
<p>Calamity also struck twice in the first few years of operation. The damage caused by an <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-05-19-watch-this-is-what-led-to-the-disastrous-explosion-at-unit-4-of-eskoms-medupi-plant/">explosion at Medupi’s Unit 4</a> in 2021 resulted in so much damage that the unit not yet been brought back on line. Then in October last year a <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/467737-why-kusile-power-stations-chimney-broke.html">chimney at Kusile collapsed</a>. This forced the closure of three Kusile units.</p>
<p>The 1,800MW Koeberg nuclear power plant has in recent decades contributed <a href="https://www.csir.co.za/csir-releases-annual-power-sector-statistics">about 5% of South Africa’s electricity</a>. It will reach the end of its initially projected 40-year lifespan in 2024. To extend its operating licence for a further 20 years, the National Nuclear Regulator requires specific part replacements and upgrades, the most significant being the installation of new steam generators.</p>
<p>These operations were initially projected to require 10 months (five months for each of Koeberg’s two units) to be completed. The attempted upgrade of the first unit early last year <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-nuclear-sector-has-failed-its-test-the-koeberg-nuclear-plant-life-extension-188013">was aborted</a> after it became clear that preparations for the project were incomplete.</p>
<p>The second attempt began in January this year. But it has already been acknowledged that this stage, initially projected to end in June, <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/eskom-to-delay-return-of-koeberg-unit-1-by-at-least-45-days-5e3a83eb-2bb7-4706-a15b-94486b6bb5cd">will not be completed until at least August</a>. After that a similar process will commence for the other unit, and this will be followed by a 200 day planned outage.</p>
<p>Koeberg is therefore effectively only running at half-power, and this state of affairs will likely <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-05-17-further-delay-in-life-extension-of-koeberg-nuclear-reactor-worsens-power-outlook/">continue into 2025</a>.</p>
<h2>Gas power ships</h2>
<p>Amid clear signs of a deepening power crisis, the minister of mineral resources and energy in 2021 announced <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/south-africa-adds-1bn-solar-battery-project-portfolio-to-rmipppp-preferred-bidder-list-2021-06-02">successful bids to supply 2,000MW of emergency power</a>. The bulk of this award, 1,200MW, was allocated to Turkey’s Karpowership, a company with a fleet of floating gas plants to be shipped in and moored in three of South Africa’s ports – Richards Bay, Nqurha and Saldanha.</p>
<p>The award attracted controversy, with accusations that the terms of reference of this bidding round amounted to <a href="https://amabhungane.org/stories/210428-powerships-losing-bidder-claims-blatant-corruption-fingers-mantashe-associate/">an unfair advantage</a> to Karpowership. Court challenges queried the legality of the <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-12-22-karpowerships-environmental-hazards-controversially-reduced-in-new-eia-specs/">environmental impact approvals</a> too.</p>
<p>The key objection to the Karpowership deal is that it would cement what is painted as an arrangement for temporary emergency power for a 20-year period.</p>
<p>This opposition and delays in some other projects reaching financial close mean that the emergency programme is at least a year behind schedule. Some might come on line at the end of 2023, but the added capacity would decrease South Africa’s electricity shortfall by only a moderate amount.</p>
<h2>Renewables</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipp-renewables.co.za/">Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme</a> was designed to enable the production of mostly solar and wind energy by private developers, who would then sell it to the power utility, Eskom.</p>
<p>Given the intermittency of sunshine and wind, solar and wind farms in South Africa on average typically only produce <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/renewables-statistics-point-to-slow-response-to-south-africas-power-constraints-2020-06-22">about 25% (solar) and 35% (wind)</a> of what they can generate under ideal conditions. Meeting a national shortfall of 6,000MW with one of these technologies alone would therefore require solar farms with a total capacity of 24,000MW, or wind farms with a total capacity of 18,000MW.</p>
<p>Two rounds of establishing <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/minister-gwede-mantashe-announces-5th-bid-window-renewable-energy-ipp-procurement-programme">new plants under the renewables programme are under way</a>. The first of these should see 1,000MW of solar power and 1,600MW of wind power come on stream by early 2025, while the second round will see a further 1,000MW of solar projects completed about a year later.</p>
<p>A mega-initiative to install <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/sa-weighs-mega-renewable-energy-tender-to-curb-load-shedding-20230425">15,000MW of solar and wind power</a> has recently been touted by the new electricity minister. While this would massively ameliorate the power scarcity, it would be very challenging to construct such a large number of solar plants simultaneously, due to potential import bottlenecks and a shortage of skilled installers. So while some of these plants might be ready by late 2025, the entire programme is likely to require five years.</p>
<h2>Domestic and private solar installations</h2>
<p>The greatest progress in accelerating electricity production has been achieved by <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">small-scale solar power installation initiatives</a>, ranging from municipal or private enterprise solar farms to solar panels on household roofs. Although this component is still comparatively small, late last year the president announced that <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/embedded-generation-project-pipeline-stands-at-9-gw-ramaphosa-2022-11-28">projects amounting to a total of 9,000MW were under development</a>.</p>
<p>Despite the major growth in this sphere, the rollout of private solar installations is hampered by the same constraints faced by the renewables programmes: import bottlenecks and skills shortages. While municipalities and smaller entities able to get such programmes working will experience considerable relief from power cuts, these initiatives will only moderately cut the national shortfall.</p>
<h2>The timeframe for a possible recovery</h2>
<p>Any remedies to the South African power crisis initiated now or already under development are not going to have a significant impact this year. The projections also assume that no major setback like last year’s Kusile accident is imminent.</p>
<p>1,000-2,000MW might be added to the generating capacity towards the end of the year, but a substantial decrease in the power shortage will only be possible towards the end of 2024, if Kusile repairs are then completed as expected, and when several renewable energy initiatives should come on line.</p>
<p>Ending power cuts completely will probably take another five years if the infusion of more solar and wind capacity proceeds as currently planned.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206343/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation. </span></em></p>Any remedies to the South African power crisis initiated now – or under development – are not going to have a significant impact this year.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2066202023-06-01T14:39:04Z2023-06-01T14:39:04ZSouth Africa’s power blackouts: solutions lie in solar farms and battery storage at scale, and an end to state monopoly<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/529320/original/file-20230531-15-92o21w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protestors take to the streets in Johannesburg, South Africa against extended power cuts.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo by Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Rolling blackouts are costing South Africa dearly. The electricity crisis is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-efforts-to-tackle-its-energy-crisis-lack-urgency-and-coherence-176993">barrier to growth</a>, destroys investor confidence and handicaps almost every economic activity. It has raised input costs for producers and retailers, and has triggered a new round of inflation and interest rate increases. </p>
<p>Any solution will obviously incur cost because it will require the adoption of new technologies, such as large-scale grid-connected solar farms that are linked to battery energy storage. But these technologies are expensive. A <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/2/488">solar farm</a> consisting of 50 MW of photovoltaic panels with 240 MWh of storage capacity will cost R2.6 billion. Batteries are the biggest outlay, accounting for about 40% of the total cost.</p>
<p>A photovoltaic panel converts solar energy to electricity, which can be used to charge a bank of batteries or supply consumers directly. The batteries then supply the stored energy into the grid over peak periods.</p>
<p>Combining solar with storage makes it more expensive than coal – which still accounts for <a href="https://www.csir.co.za/csir-releases-statistics-on-power-generation-south-africa-2022">80% of South Africa’s electricity generation</a> – when comparing units of energy produced. But this technology is affordable relative to the options consumers are already adopting in significant volumes – diesel generators or small-scale batteries coupled to inverters – as long as it is at large scale and is used for peak power only.</p>
<p>I argue that South Africa can solve much of its energy crisis by building new facilities consisting of battery storage with photovoltaic panels. However, the new technology cannot be used without reform of the wholesale energy market.</p>
<h2>Reforms to the energy market</h2>
<p>Much of the media’s attention to the energy crisis has been focused on generation capacity, or lack thereof. But there is another equally important contributor – the failure by the government to unbundle Eskom (the state-owned electricity utility) and create a market operator and a transmission system operator as independent entities. </p>
<p>A market operator is an energy “stock exchange”. It facilitates contracts between the energy producers, the transmission system and the distributors. Many countries in the world have already restructured their electricity supply industry to establish such a market and introduce greater competition among the power producers. </p>
<p>The UK, <a href="https://www.publications.gov.on.ca/future-of-ontarios-electricity-market-a-benefits-case-assessment-of-the-market-renewal-project">Canada</a>, the US and many countries in the European Union have undertaken market reforms like this, with positive outcomes.</p>
<p>South Africa indicated an intention to follow such an <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/energy-policy-white-paper-0">approach in 1998</a>. But it has never acted on this policy. Instead, it has kept alive an increasingly inefficient and dysfunctional state-owned utility. As a result, the country has a shortage of generation capacity, a shortage of connection and transmission capacity, and a growing environmental disaster.</p>
<h2>Blackouts have changed supply and demand</h2>
<p>Analysis of the usage data from the <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/dataportal/">Eskom portal</a> suggests that rolling power blackouts have led to changes in the country’s energy landscape.</p>
<p>On the supply side, customers are increasingly using alternative energy sources. Consumers who require stable energy supply have made alternative plans, in most cases shifting to the use of diesel generators. Figures of diesel consumption are not available, but, based on the electricity shortfall, I estimate, using the data for April 2023, that the additional diesel usage, excluding Eskom and the independent power producers, was about 660 million litres per month, which is almost the same as the amount used by the whole transport sector.</p>
<p>On the demand side, the blackouts have led to shifts in the use of grid electricity at a different time of the day/night cycle. This has been driven mainly by the use of lithium batteries. Eskom is already <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/charging-inverters-during-peak-could-push-up-demand-by-one-stage-of-load-shedding-eskom-20230525?utm_source=24.com&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=_4838_+_44148105_+_81120_&utm_term=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news24.com%2Ffin24%2Fclimate_future%2Fenergy%2Fcharging-inverters-during-peak-could-push-up-demand-by-one-stage-of-load-shedding-eskom-20230525">reporting</a> that there is an added demand of 1.4GW to recharge battery storage, or about 5% additional load on the grid.</p>
<h2>The costs of small-scale solutions</h2>
<p>The cost of a battery-plus-inverter system to meet the needs of an average household under <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-04-19-shedding-some-light-on-eskoms-eight-stages-of-grief-and-pain/">Stage 4 loadshedding</a> – which is about 6 hours of outages every 24 hours – is about R100,000 to R150,000 (about US$5,000 to $7,600). At current interest rates, and assuming an average energy consumption of 15kWh per day and an Eskom rate of R2.75 per kWh, the net cost will be R6.10 per kWh. This makes it more expensive than diesel.</p>
<p>Back-up power from an 8kVA diesel generator, using the same set of assumptions, will cost about R5.20 per kWh, including diesel and capital charges.</p>
<p>The installation of 1.4GW of battery capacity nationally confirms that there is already a market for the purchase of energy at higher cost. Energy security is a necessity for many businesses, especially those operating cold storage or essential equipment. </p>
<h2>The costs of large-scale solar with batteries</h2>
<p>In a recently <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/86850">published article</a>
I set out what the landscape might look like if South Africa implemented a plan to balance renewable energy capacity and time-of-use tariffs, and ended Eskom’s monopoly. </p>
<p>Customers could pay different rates depending on the time of day when they used electricity.</p>
<p>For my <a href="https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/86850">article</a>, I used a simple model for the South African energy grid and considered the optimal configuration for a photovoltaic/battery storage facility which could provide peak power of 6GW, which is about 20% of the total demand.</p>
<p>It concluded that the grid would need an installed photovoltaic capacity of 18GW, coupled with a storage system rated at 3.7GW/10.4 GWh. The facility would pay for itself if a time-of-use tariff of R3.50 per kWh, almost double the present tariff excluding network charges, could be levied. </p>
<p>But this would require <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-south-africas-latest-plan-for-state-owned-power-giant-could-work-111480">ending Eskom’s distribution monopoly</a> and the establishment of the market operator. Different tariffs would be the result of competition between different players. </p>
<h2>A three-step plan</h2>
<p>The analysis suggests that it would be possible to solve the peak power problem in three steps. Firstly, unbundle Eskom and establish the market operator, secondly use the bail-out funds to build connection capacity, and thirdly, use the market operator to build large-scale photovoltaic/battery capacity. Market reform has been on the policy agenda for nearly 25 years. But little real progress has been made. South Africa should stop going around in circles. It needs to take a straight line in the fast lane.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206620/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Richard Walwyn receives funding from the National Research Foundation for a project on the development of vehicle-to-grid technology. The project is unrelated to the contents of this article. </span></em></p>South Africa could end power blackouts if it implemented a plan to balance renewable energy capacity, time-of-use tariffs and ended the power utility’s monopoly.David Richard Walwyn, Professor of Technology Management, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2061012023-05-24T13:42:03Z2023-05-24T13:42:03ZCorruption in South Africa: former CEO’s explosive book exposes how state power utility was destroyed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527785/original/file-20230523-19-yugb19.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">PenguinRandomHouse</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One repeated theme of the <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.co.za/book/truth-power-my-three-years-inside-eskom/9781776390625#:%7E:text=De%20Ruyter%20candidly%20reflects%20on,to%20speak%20truth%20to%20power">memoir</a> Truth to Power: My Three Years Inside Eskom, by Andre de Ruyter, former CEO of South Africa’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-electricity-supply-whats-tripping-the-switch-151331">troubled power utility</a>, Eskom, is that “negligence and carelessness had become cemented into the organisation”. </p>
<p>Dirt piled up at even the newest power stations until it damaged equipment, which stopped working – and some equipment disappeared beneath a layer of ash.</p>
<p>Integrity had been displaced by greed and crime: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Corruption had metastasised to permeate much of the organisation. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>As a political scientist who has, among other topics, followed corruption and kleptocracy, this book ranks among the more informative.</p>
<p>De Ruyter (or his ghost writer) delivers a pacey, racy adventure <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.co.za/book/truth-power-my-three-years-inside-eskom/9781776390625">thriller</a>. Chapter after chapter reads like a horror story about Eskom, whose failure to generate enough electricity consistently for <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-and-food-safety-how-to-avoid-illness-during-loadshedding-200586">the past 15</a> years has <a href="https://www.investec.com/en_za/focus/economy/sa-s-load-shedding-how-the-sectors-are-being-affected.html">hobbled the economy</a>. </p>
<p>The book is also a sobering indication that parts of South Africa now fester with organised crime.</p>
<p>This book merits its place alongside <a href="https://www.loot.co.za/product/crispian-olver-how-to-steal-a-city/jywy-5080-g730?PPC=Y&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIgZaS7pbE3QIVS7DtCh0EGQXfEAAYASAAEgLszPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds">How to Steal a City</a> and <a href="https://jacana.co.za/product/how-to-steal-a-country-state-capture-and-hopes-for-the-future-in-south-africa/">How to Steal a Country</a>. These two books chronicle how corruption undermined respectively a city and a country to the level where they became dysfunctional.</p>
<h2>Brazen looting</h2>
<p>Another take-away is the devastating indictment of De Ruyter’s immediate predecessors as CEO, <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/heritage/matshela-koko/">Matshela Koko</a> and <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/heritage/brian-molefe/">Brian Molefe</a>. They appear as incompetent managers who ran into the ground what the Financial Times of London had praised as the world’s best state-owned enterprise as recently as 2001. Both <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/live-former-eskom-boss-matshela-koko-arrested-on-corruption-charges-20221027">Koko</a> and <a href="https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/molefe-singh-back-in-palm-ridge-specialised-commercial-crimes-court/">Molefe</a> have been charged with corruption – at Eskom and the transport parastatal Transet, respectively.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explosive-revelations-about-south-africas-power-utility-why-new-electricity-minister-should-heed-the-words-of-former-eskom-ceo-201508">Explosive revelations about South Africa's power utility: why new electricity minister should heed the words of former Eskom CEO</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The standard joke about corruption is “Mr Ten Percent” – meaning a middleman who adds 10% onto the price of everything passing through his hands. Under Koko and Molefe, this had allegedly ballooned into “Mr Ten Thousand Percent”. </p>
<p>For example, De Ruyter writes that Eskom was just stopped in the nick of time from paying a middleman R238,000 for a cleaning mop. </p>
<p>Corruption focused on the procurement chain. One middleman bought knee-pads for R150 (US$7,80) and sold them to Eskom for R80,000 (US$4,200). Another bought a knee-pad for R4,025 (US$209) and sold it to Eskom for R934,950 (US$48,544). The same applied to toilet rolls and rubbish bags. One inevitable consequence of corruption on such a scale was that Eskom’s debt, which was R40 billion (US$2.076 billion) in 2007 (the year that former president Jacob Zuma came to power), ballooned to R483 billion (US$25 billion) by 2020 – which incurred R31 billion (US$160 million) in annual finance charges.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Book cover showing a Caucasian man." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=920&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527730/original/file-20230523-27-r4nxs8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1156&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">PenguinRandomHouse</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>De Ruyter reveals that the “presidential” cartel (meaning one of the local mafias) pillaged Matla power station, the “Mesh-Kings” cartel Duvha power station, the “Legendaries” cartel Tutuka power station, and the “Chief” cartel Majuba power station. He writes that the going rate for bribes at Kusile power station is R200,000 (US$10,377) to falsify the delivery of one truckload of good quality coal. <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/special-investigating-unit-secure-another-preservation-order-matter-related-corruption">Kusile</a> is one of the two giant new coal-fired power stations which Eskom is relying on to end power cuts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-bailout-of-eskom-wont-end-power-cuts-splitting-up-the-utility-can-as-other-countries-have-shown-200490">South Africa's bailout of Eskom won't end power cuts: splitting up the utility can, as other countries have shown</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The book says a senior officer at the <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/dpci/index.php">Hawks</a>, the police’s priority crimes investigation units, tipped off De Ruyter how he was blocked in all his attempts to combat corruption at Eskom. Senior police officers, at least one prosecutor, and a senior magistrate, have also been bribed by the gangs. </p>
<h2>Noncomformist</h2>
<p>Eskom had 13 CEOs and acting CEOs in 13 years. Twenty-eight candidates, most of them black, rejected head-hunters’ offers to become CEO of Eskom. De Ruyter who was previously CEO of Nampak, took a pay cut (to R7 million) to accept the job, in the hope of accelerating Eskom’s transition from coal to renewables.</p>
<p>At the time of his appointment some commentators alleged that he was an African National Congress (ANC) cadre deployed to Eskom. The ANC’s <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321223498_The_African_National_Congress_ANC_and_the_Cadre_Deployment_Policy_in_the_Postapartheid_South_Africa_A_Product_of_Democratic_Centralisation_or_a_Recipe_for_a_Constitutional_Crisis">cadre deployment</a> policy is aimed at ensuring that all the levers of power are in loyal party hands – often regardless of ability and probity. But De Ruyter came <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/anc-claims-de-ruyter-is-trying-to-tarnish-its-image-ahead-of-elections-in-2024-20230426">into conflict</a> with the ruling party.</p>
<p>What caught De Ruyter out was the viciousness of the political attacks on him: smears of racism and financial impropriety. He had to devote many hours of office time to refuting them: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>occupying that seat at Megawatt Park comes with political baggage. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://za.geoview.info/eskom_megawatt_park,32555009w">Megawatt Park</a> is Eskom’s head office in Johannesburg. </p>
<p>The book’s early chapters summarise how he was one of those Afrikaners with Dutch parents, who did not conform entirely to apartheid norms. The Afrikaner <em>volk</em> imposed the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/apartheid">apartheid</a> regime onto South Africa for 42 years. In his high school years he became a card-carrying member of the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Progressive-Federal-Party">Progressive Federal Party</a>, a liberal anti-apartheid opposition party, antecedent of the Democratic Alliance, which is now the official opposition to the governing party. </p>
<h2>Poisoning</h2>
<p>De Ruyter’s book mentions organising a routine Eskom stakeholders’ meeting at a guesthouse in Mpumalanga province. </p>
<p>To save time, he ordered that food be served on plates to table places, instead of buffet arrangements. The guesthouse management refused, due to fear of facilitating poisoning one or more guests – only buffet arrangements could thwart that. </p>
<p>He says that in Tshwane (Pretoria), the seat of government, the National Prosecution Authority no longer orders takeaway lunches for delivery to their premises. Instead, standard procedure is that a staff member buys lunches for all at random take-away shops. </p>
<p>This sinister development culminated in De Ruyter himself being poisoned with cyanide in his coffee in his office, demonstrating how mafia-type gangs had recruited at least one Eskom headquarters staff member.</p>
<h2>Unintended consequences</h2>
<p>In several places De Ruyter also touches on other issues. The unintended consequence of some government policies, such as localisation and <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.za/comm_media/press/2022/2022110801%20Media%20Statement%20-%20PPP%20Regulations%202022.pdf">preferential procurement</a>, is that it costs Eskom two and a half times more to pay for each kilometre of transmission cable than it costs <a href="https://www.nampower.com.na/">Nampower</a> Namibia’s power utility, just across the border. </p>
<p>What stands out from this memoir is that the success of a company demands that a CEO, managers, artisans, guards, and cleaners all take the attitude that the buck stops with them – seven days a week – and act accordingly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/206101/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Gottschalk is a member of the African National Congress, but writes this review in his professional capacity as a political scientist.</span></em></p>The book shows how parts of South Africa now fester with organised crime.Keith Gottschalk, Political Scientist, University of the Western CapeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2048322023-05-10T13:22:45Z2023-05-10T13:22:45ZSouth Africa’s cold weather has arrived – some tips on how to stay warm and safe<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524611/original/file-20230505-21-1gxzfn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When cold weather sets in there are several ways to keep yourself warm.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NickyLloyd/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Research shows that the world is undoubtedly warming. And, as the global average temperature keeps rising, heatwaves are increasing in their <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16970-7">frequency, duration and intensity</a> for most of the world’s regions.</p>
<p>But that doesn’t mean cold weather will disappear entirely. While annual extreme cold events are becoming <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6947">less frequent and less intense</a>, as you’d expect in a warming world, researchers suggest the climate systems that drive anomalously cold weather will continue to cause cold snaps <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL047103">globally into the 21st century</a>. As we become more accustomed to a warmer world, we become less accustomed to these cold events, and therefore more vulnerable. </p>
<p>Being exposed to cold temperatures can increase the risk of hypothermia, frostbite, and other cold-related <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/coldstress/coldrelatedillnesses.html#:%7E:text=Prolonged%20exposure%20to%20cold%20will,think%20clearly%20or%20move%20well">illnesses</a> like cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. That’s especially true for people who are homeless, live in poorly insulated homes, or who cannot warm their homes using heaters, hot water bottles and electric blankets.</p>
<p>As we’re writing this article, South Africa is heading into winter. The first cold fronts have already reached the country’s south-western regions of Cape Town and surrounds, and the interior has started to experience cooler weather. Rolling blackouts known as loadshedding exacerbate the situation; loadshedding is often <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/features-analysis/loadshedding-in-winter-whats-that-going-to-be-like/">worst during the winter months</a> due to the heightened pressure on the electrical grid as people try to heat their homes and keep lights on during the longer hours of darkness.</p>
<p>As researchers who have been exploring extreme temperature events and thermal comfort in South Africa, we have some advice about how to keep yourself as warm as possible during the winter months.</p>
<h2>Our research</h2>
<p>South Africa is often marketed to tourists as a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/does-sunny-south-africa-really-have-an-ideal-climate-for-tourism-103852">sunny</a>” holiday destination. The country experiences <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09669582.2016.1251933?casa_token=xZYXtQLGv_wAAAAA%3AGeIX9-k_8LcCmQVK0oiDurB4INI-jHskbxGbAcHjDVwEmWUHrgrG01VtuoYkDl1Su5eVRx7tPRkp">warm summers and frequent clear skies</a>, providing an ideal destination for beach vacations. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/does-sunny-south-africa-really-have-an-ideal-climate-for-tourism-103852">Does sunny South Africa really have an ideal climate for tourism?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>But its winters can be bitterly cold, particularly in the mountainous regions of the Drakensberg-Maloti and the Cape Fold Mountains, and in towns such as Sutherland in the Northern Cape province.</p>
<p>O<a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.6947">ur research</a> has explored trends in extreme climate events over the past six decades. </p>
<p>Using data from <a href="https://www.wcrp-climate.org/etccdi">indices developed by expert teams</a> from the World Meteorological Organisation, we have identified extreme cold events across South Africa’s nine provinces. Our research confirms that these events are occurring less often and for shorter periods than in previous decades. The duration of extreme cold events is decreasing at a rate of 1 day per decade; the number of these events is decreasing by 0.2 events per decade. </p>
<h2>Provincial trends</h2>
<p>However, for some locations in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape and North West provinces, these average trends do not hold true. Cold waves in these locations are increasing in duration. </p>
<p><a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/joc.8009">An analysis</a> of the Universal Thermal Climate Index outputs for Southern Africa over the period 1979 to 2021 confirms that large areas of the South African interior still experience slight cold stress from June to August, while the high-lying mountainous regions experience moderate cold stress in the middle of each year. </p>
<p>There have been several newsworthy extreme cold events in recent years that have seen low temperatures and snowfall affecting various regions of the country. One, in March 2016, was unseasonal (South Africa’s winter months are June to August) – southern regions of the Western Cape experienced temperatures below -6°C, which is unusual for that time of the year.</p>
<p>In June and July 2019, Gauteng and the Western Cape experienced several cold fronts that led to consecutive cold days and nights and resulted in one reported casualty due to hypothermia in <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/the-star/news/one-more-freezing-night-gauteng-cold-front-to-end-wednesday-28418895">Dobsonville, Soweto</a> and one in <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/capetimes/news/homeless-man-freezes-to-death-on-sea-point-beach-30027920">Sea Point, Cape Town</a>. </p>
<p>In July 2021, a severe cold snap, caused by a succession of cold fronts making landfall over South Africa, resulted in <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/photos-south-africans-shiver-as-freezing-conditions-sweep-across-the-interior-20210723">record-breaking temperatures and snowfall</a> across many parts of the country, including the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal. </p>
<p>These events are a reminder of how dangerous extreme cold can be. Here’s how you can mitigate its effects.</p>
<h2>Some tips</h2>
<p>First, it’s important to know your risks:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Infants (younger than 1 year) lose body heat more easily than adults.</p></li>
<li><p>Adults over 65 are more susceptible to extremely cold temperatures due to their slow metabolisms and levels of physical activity.</p></li>
<li><p>People who spend longer periods outdoors, including homeless individuals, sportspeople and outdoor workers, are at increased risk for cold-related health problems. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>However, everyone should take precautions to prevent cold exposure and minimise the risk of cold stress. These include the following tips:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Limit your time outdoors, where possible.</p></li>
<li><p>Dress warmly (thermal clothing, jerseys and closed shoes) and cover up exposed skin to reduce the risk of hypothermia.</p></li>
<li><p>Close windows and even use thicker curtains in the winter evenings to keep in the heat.</p></li>
<li><p>Identify and close gaps in doorways and window frames that could be letting in the cold.</p></li>
<li><p>Insulate homes and buildings to reduce the need for heating and retain any heat generated between loadshedding.</p></li>
<li><p>Intensify your physical activity.</p></li>
<li><p>Invest in some extra and thicker blankets.</p></li>
<li><p>Stay informed about the latest loadshedding schedules to ensure you can cook warm meals while the power is on.</p></li>
<li><p>Stay informed and monitor the local media about the latest weather updates and warnings.</p></li>
</ul>
<h2>Policy shifts</h2>
<p>In addition to these individual measures, broader policy solutions can help mitigate the impact of loadshedding during extreme cold weather. These include increasing investment in renewable energy, improving the electricity grid’s efficiency, and implementing targeted measures to support vulnerable populations and communities during loadshedding periods such as by providing shelters and soup kitchens.</p>
<p>While the push for these policies continues, make sure you dress in layers and stay indoors as much as you can this winter.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adriaan Van Der Walt receives funding from the National Research Foundation, South Africa </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Fitchett receives funding from GENUS: the DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Palaeosciences and the National Research Foundation. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Roffe receives funding from the National Research Foundation, South Africa.</span></em></p>Climate systems which drive anomalously cold weather will still cause cold extreme events into the 21st century.Adriaan Van Der Walt, Senior Lecturer of Physical Geography and GIS, University of the Free StateJennifer Fitchett, Associate Professor of Physical Geography, University of the WitwatersrandSarah Roffe, Researcher, Agricultural Research CouncilLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2042432023-05-08T06:13:21Z2023-05-08T06:13:21ZFarmers in South Africa face power cuts and a weak rand - but a number of factors are working in their favour too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523770/original/file-20230502-18-sne03b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">All of South Africa's wheat production takes place during the winter months</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GettyImages</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Winter is an important season for South African agriculture, with some of its key field crops being produced during the cold months of June, July and August, and maturing after that, with harvesting in December. Preparation of the land for winter crops begins in April, which is also the same time harvesting of the summer crops begins.</p>
<p>Farmers in the Western and Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo and other winter crop growing regions are making arrangements for growing winter wheat, canola, barley and oats. </p>
<p>All of the country’s wheat production takes place during the winter months, making the winter season an important contributor to the country’s wheat needs. South Africa produces <a href="https://www.namc.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/South-African-Supply-Demand-Estimates-March-2023-report.pdf">roughly 60% of its wheat requirements and imports the balance</a>. It also produces, on average, about <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Feb-23-Wintergrain-SnD.pdf">90% of its barley annual consumption</a>. Domestic production of oats is about <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Feb-23-Wintergrain-SnD.pdf">64% of annual consumption</a>. The country is <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Feb-23-Oilseeds-SnD.pdf">self sufficient in canola production</a>. Barley, oats and canola are all winter crops. </p>
<p>This year, the outlook for winter crops is clouded by a difficult operating environment, especially the areas that are under irrigation. </p>
<p>The two biggest headwinds are power cuts and dollar strength. Nevertheless, there are also positives which should take the pressure off food price rises that have hit consumers hard. These positives include a fall in the cost of inputs, like fertiliser and agrochemicals, as well as good harvests from the summer season just ending.</p>
<h2>Headwinds</h2>
<p>The main contributing factor is the increase in recurring power cuts which will affect irrigation. South Africa’s agriculture has never faced a period of power cuts as severe as the current ones.</p>
<p>The agricultural sector in general is heavily reliant on sustainable energy. For example, recent work by the <a href="https://www.bfap.co.za/">Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP)</a> shows that roughly a third of South Africa’s farming income is directly dependent on irrigation. This shows that disruptions in power supply generally puts at risk a substantive share of the South African agricultural fortunes.</p>
<p>Of all South Africa’s field crops, wheat has the largest production – <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/agbiz-calls-for-less-loadshedding-in-areas-under-irrigation-2023-01-23">about half</a> – under irrigation. Of the other key field crops, <a href="https://wandilesihlobo.com/2023/01/18/loadshedding-is-disrupting-sa-agriculture-and-agribusiness-activities/">about 15% of soybeans, 20% of maize and 34% of sugar production are under irrigation</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/524861/original/file-20230508-171112-epn7ao.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p>The potential disruption of irrigation would lead to poor yields, and ultimately a poor harvest. Such an eventuality would lead to an increase in wheat imports. </p>
<p>Industry role-players and the government are alert to the problem and are monitoring the impact closely through a <a href="https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/task-team-monitor-impact-load-shedding-agriculture-sector">ministerial task team</a>. In addition, <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/">Eskom</a>, the power monopoly, along with the government, are exploring possibilities of reducing <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-crisis-going-off-the-grid-works-for-the-wealthy-but-could-deepen-injustice-for-the-poor-200288">power cuts</a> which are expected to spike during the winter when demand usually rises.</p>
<p>The second headwind is that South African farmers have not benefited fully from the decline over the past year in the US dollar prices of some of their key inputs such as agrochemicals. This is because of the weakening of the South African rand against the dollar, shaving off some of the benefits of the price decline in US dollar terms.</p>
<p>Thirdly, farmers are experiencing lower commodity prices compared with last year. But a drop in input prices is providing a necessary financial cushion.</p>
<h2>There are positives</h2>
<p>On the plus side, the area plantings for all South Africa’s major crops are expected to be above the five-year average area. This is according to <a href="https://www.sagis.org.za/cec.html">Crop Estimates Committee</a>, a government and industry body that monitors crop production.</p>
<p>Secondly, input prices have come off from last year’s highs. For example, in February 2023, essential agrochemicals such as glyphosate, acetochlor, and atrazine were down in rand terms by <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Chemical-and-Fertilizer-Report_Mrt-2023.pdf">32%, 18%, and 2%</a>, respectively compared to February 2022. These price declines have continued through to March 2023. </p>
<p>These declines would have been higher had the South African Rand not weakened against the US dollar over the same period. That’s because in US dollar terms, the prices of the very same agrochemicals are down by 30% from February 2022. Prices of insecticides and fungicides have also declined notably from last year’s levels.</p>
<p>Also worth noting is that in February 2023, essential fertilisers such as ammonia, urea, di-ammonium phosphate and potassium chloride were down <a href="https://www.grainsa.co.za/upload/report_files/Chemical-and-Fertilizer-Report_Mrt-2023.pdf">6%, 36%, 28% and 14% in rand terms</a>, respectively. Again, in US dollar terms, the price decline was more notable, which speaks to the impact of the relatively weaker South African rand on imported products.</p>
<p>These price changes in inputs are vital as they impact vast components of the grain input costs. For example, fertiliser accounts for a third of grain farmers’ input costs, while other agrochemicals account for roughly 13%. </p>
<p>A third positive factor is that the weather conditions for the winter crops also remain positive. In its <a href="https://www.weathersa.co.za/home/seasonalclimate">Seasonal Climate Watch update</a> published on 03 April 2023, the South African Weather Service <a href="https://www.ingwelala.co.za/archives/news-archives/seasonal-climate-watch.html">noted</a> that the winter crop growing regions of South Africa will receive rains.</p>
<p>A fourth positive factor is that the summer crops, which are nearing the harvest process, are in reasonably good condition. I generally expect an ample harvest in most summer crops, which is aligned with the view of the <a href="https://www.sagis.org.za/cec.html">Crop Estimates Committee</a>.</p>
<h2>Takeways</h2>
<p>From a consumer perspective, developments are broadly positive and bode well for some moderation in consumer food price inflation in the second half of the year, when the decline in commodity prices could begin to filter into the retail prices. </p>
<p>The one major risk is electricity stability. This is as much a risk for farmers as it is for consumers.</p>
<p>However, I am hopeful that the government’s interventions, such as the load curtailment and diesel rebate, to limit the damage of the electricity crisis to food production will help. </p>
<p>If the government’s proposed interventions help during irrigation periods – afternoons and evenings – South Africans can expect a favourable winter season. The reduction in power cuts will also be particularly beneficial for food processors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204243/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC).</span></em></p>A third of South Africa’s farming income depends on irrigation. Disruptions in power supply put huge chunks of the country’s agricultural fortunes at risk.Wandile Sihlobo, Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2005862023-05-01T10:41:49Z2023-05-01T10:41:49ZPower cuts and food safety: how to avoid illness during loadshedding <figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522112/original/file-20230420-201-bpqhqv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Keep as little food as possible in your fridge and freezer.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>South Africa has been grappling with power cuts for <a href="https://www.myggsa.co.za/when-did-load-shedding-first-start-in-south-africa/">15 years</a>, which have <a href="https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/quarterly-bulletins/boxes/2022/december/Measures%20of%20electricity%20load-shedding.pdf">worsened in recent years</a>. The persistent power outages have disrupted <a href="https://theconversation.com/africa/search?q=power+cuts">every facet of life</a>, including <a href="https://theconversation.com/your-fridge-might-not-be-cold-enough-to-keep-food-safe-70262">food safety</a>. The Conversation Africa’s Ina Skosana spoke to food safety expert Lise Korsten about the impact of persistent power cuts on the food in our homes and the best ways to protect ourselves.</em> </p>
<hr>
<h2>How should we manage the food in our fridges?</h2>
<p>The reality is that loadshedding for extended periods of time is causing temperature fluctuations in our fridges. Particularly if the fridge is regularly opened during loadshedding or if it has old rubber sealants. Temperature fluctuations can make food go bad. </p>
<p>To start with, let’s consider “what’s in our fridges”, “do we really need to keep so much perishable food in our fridges” and “how safe is it, given current loadshedding schedules”.</p>
<p>Loadshedding is forcing us to think about food safety and spoilage, our general behaviour in terms of food purchases, storage, managing our fridges, hygiene and the use of leftover food. </p>
<p>We need to ask ourselves: “are we buying more food than we should, and are we not wasting more food?”</p>
<p>Perhaps we should consider a more minimalist lifestyle if we are to survive the current economic downturn and manage the impact of loadshedding. </p>
<p>Keeping too much food in fridges increases the potential risk of food-borne illness given our current energy crises. In short, households need to better manage the food in fridges and keep as little of it as possible. </p>
<h2>What’s the best way to avoid illness?</h2>
<p>Keep your fridge – and kitchen – clean. Doing so will reduce the potential of organisms that can proliferate in these environments and cause illnesses, such as food poisoning. There are a few basic ways to maintain hygiene:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>regularly clean your fridge and keep a special eye on obvious potential contamination points such as areas where, for instance, the blood from raw meat dripped onto the bottom shelf </p></li>
<li><p>defrost your freezer to remove any ice building up that can affect the performance of the freezer. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>New fridges often maintain the temperature more effectively for longer periods of time due to new, well-fitting seals. If it’s an older fridge and the rubber seals are broken or the door doesn’t close properly, temperature fluctuations will more likely occur.</p>
<p>A good rule is also to keep your fridge closed during loadshedding and pack more higher risk items towards the back where less temperature fluctuations will occur. The door of the fridge is a higher risk area because of higher temperature fluctuations. This is important since we often keep milk in this compartment, thereby increasing the risk of it going off before the use-by date. </p>
<p>So set your fridge or freezer temperature correctly, and make sure it’s clean and fully functional. The key is keep the temperature consistent and manage the stocks in your fridge. </p>
<h2>Why does fridge temperature matter?</h2>
<p>We don’t get sick from just one organism. We get sick from a certain number of tiny organisms. What is important to keep in mind is that some microorganisms can multiply rapidly – in fact some every <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780433101000500091">20 minutes</a>, others even every <a href="https://blogs.udla.edu.ec/haccp/2017/05/25/bacteria-and-how-they-multiply/#:%7E:text=In%20the%20right%20conditions%2C%20a,would%20have%20over%208%2C000%20bacteria.">10 minutes</a>. </p>
<p>Environmental conditions – such as fluctuating temperatures – will influence how many organisms are present at a certain point in time and can multiply. If the food is kept at temperatures that fluctuate it will encourage rapid growth of microorganism to levels high enough to cause illness by the time the food is consumed. </p>
<p>In general, microorganisms can multiply at temperatures between 4°C and 60°C. This temperature range is often called the “danger zone” in food safety. Some of these organisms prefer room temperature to rapidly multiply. Leaving food outside the fridge is, therefore, risky behaviour since you do not know if food is contaminated with any pathogens or if general spoilage can occur. The strategy is, therefore, to prevent contamination or “slow down” the growth of organisms through effective cold chain management. </p>
<p>The amount of microorganisms in food that can cause illnesses varies. It can be as little as <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2553879/">10 or 100 colony forming units</a> – the number of microbial cells in a sample that are able to multiply – per gramme of food. Some organisms can make us sick very quickly, even if only a few cells were initially present. Others increase in number over time when temperatures fluctuate, making food temperature management important. </p>
<p>It’s also important to remember that not all microorganisms are enemies. Less <a href="https://microbiologysociety.org/why-microbiology-matters/what-is-microbiology/microbes-and-the-human-body/microbes-and-disease.html">than 1%</a> actually make us sick. We need to understand the microbial balance in nature and manage the system to our benefit. </p>
<h2>Is it safe to eat leftovers?</h2>
<p>It’s interesting to mention <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0020872817742703">a study</a> where waste pickers were asked how they know when food is safe to eat. They explained reliance on basic skills and instinct, which in essence means sensory parameters: smelling if food is off, touch (that slimy feeling), that “look” (texture and offish) and memory – once you have been sick from a specific food item your body will instinctively react (almost like a shiver down the spine). </p>
<p>These instincts are important and are in a way a survival skill, so be stringent when keeping leftover food. If you do, try and consume it as soon as possible, preferably the next day. Also, if you heat something, do so properly. A golden rule is to avoid reheating food, especially not more than once. Keep in mind that microorganisms can survive high and low temperatures, and can rapidly multiply during the cooling down periods. So your timeline for safety gets less the longer you keep your food and expose it to fluctuating temperatures.</p>
<p>If possible, make sure you only prepare enough food for a meal, and try and keep fewer leftovers in your fridge. We should also start thinking about eating smaller portions and ask ourselves the question: do our bodies really need that volume of food? It is better, for our mind and soul, to be more conscious of using food wisely and wasting less. This is important in a country where a <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-hunger-problem-is-turning-into-a-major-health-crisis-183736">very high percentage</a> of people go to bed hungry every night.</p>
<h2>So what to do?</h2>
<p>We all have time constraints, with the majority of people getting home late at night and having to rapidly prepare a healthy, safe meal. So plan meal portions, preparation and serving times around loadshedding, and manage the food in the fridge more wisely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200586/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lise Korsten does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The era of stocking pantries and keeping our fridges and freezers full is over.Lise Korsten, Professor in the Department of Microbiology and Plant Pathology and Co-Director at the Centre of Excellence in Food Security, University of PretoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2045662023-04-26T16:51:59Z2023-04-26T16:51:59ZSouth Africans are fed up with their prospects, and their democracy, according to latest social attitudes survey<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523014/original/file-20230426-28-q31z4p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">29 years of democracy has left its mark.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rather battered and frayed South African flag billowing in the wind against a cloud-strewn sky.</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The mood among South Africans has soured. The latest findings from the representative <a href="http://archivesite.hsrc.ac.za/en/departments/sasas?_gl=1*1fljwft*_ga*MTM3MDA1OTM4MS4xNjgyNTI1Mjc2*_ga_6KN2L6JN85*MTY4MjUyNTI3NS4xLjEuMTY4MjUyNTI5MC4wLjAuMA..*_ga_8T91XDZ2CX*MTY4MjUyNTI3NS4xLjEuMTY4MjUyNTI5MC4wLjAuMA..&_ga=2.78387604.1479165019.1682525277-1370059381.1682525276">survey</a> that’s done every year by the country’s Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) shows some disturbing new trends.</p>
<p>The most marked are:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>a decline in <a href="https://hsrc.ac.za/uploads/pageContent/1607/How%20South%20Africans%20Rate%20Their%20Quality%20of%20Life.pdf">levels of life satisfaction</a> as a whole</p></li>
<li><p>a downturn in people’s views about what lies ahead in their lives</p></li>
<li><p>a growing sense of despondency, and </p></li>
<li><p>a declining satisfaction with democracy.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The sense of hopelessness and despondency with democracy that emerges from the survey does not bode well for the future of the country’s democracy. As the survey shows, as despondency increases, so too does a sense of hopelessness.</p>
<p>The 2021 <a href="http://archivesite.hsrc.ac.za/en/departments/sasas?_gl=1*1fljwft*_ga*MTM3MDA1OTM4MS4xNjgyNTI1Mjc2*_ga_6KN2L6JN85*MTY4MjUyNTI3NS4xLjEuMTY4MjUyNTI5MC4wLjAuMA..*_ga_8T91XDZ2CX*MTY4MjUyNTI3NS4xLjEuMTY4MjUyNTI5MC4wLjAuMA..&_ga=2.78387604.1479165019.1682525277-1370059381.1682525276">survey</a> – with the most recent available results – consisted of 2,996 South Africans aged 16 years and older living in private residences. The data were benchmarked and weighted to be representative of the adult population.</p>
<p>The survey echoes key points in our forthcoming work on life satisfaction and democracy in the Human Science Research Council’s flagship publication, <a href="https://hsrc.ac.za/special-projects/sasas/">State of the Nation</a>. This details increasing life dissatisfaction amid growing unhappiness with democracy and despondency. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-hold-contradictory-views-about-their-democracy-159647">South Africans hold contradictory views about their democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Based on our two decade involvement in <a href="https://hsrc.ac.za/special-projects/sasas/">social attitudes</a> research in South Africa, we argued that while South Africans were increasingly unhappy with democracy, their levels of life satisfaction remained stable. But we are now noting a significant decline in life satisfaction in the context of increased democratic despondency, weak political efficacy and mediocre service delivery.</p>
<p>It is this sense of hopelessness that could potentially signal political instability in the future.</p>
<h2>What are people are saying</h2>
<p>The Social Attitudes Survey is a nationally representative, cross-sectional survey. Conducted annually since 2003, it measures underlying public perceptions, values and social fabric in South African society. </p>
<p>The survey represents a notable tool for monitoring evolving social, economic and political values among South Africans. We also believe it shows promising use as a predictive mechanism that could inform decision makers and policy-making processes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-1994-miracle-whats-left-159495">South Africa's 1994 'miracle': what's left?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The most recent survey results show a marked downturn in the mood in the country since 2021, most notably around life satisfaction and future life improvement or optimism. </p>
<p><strong>A downturn in life satisfaction:</strong> South Africans show a recent downturn in their general life satisfaction, a measure that has remained relatively stable over the last 18 or so years (Figure 1). When asked to reflect on their current personal life circumstances, only 41% were satisfied with their lives in late 2021 compared to 52% in 2014. This is a significant decline for a measure that is usually quite stable. </p>
<p>This points to appreciable strain on life satisfaction, something that is likely to be more acutely felt among poor and vulnerable citizens.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522968/original/file-20230426-742-hp6qm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522968/original/file-20230426-742-hp6qm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522968/original/file-20230426-742-hp6qm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522968/original/file-20230426-742-hp6qm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=264&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522968/original/file-20230426-742-hp6qm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522968/original/file-20230426-742-hp6qm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522968/original/file-20230426-742-hp6qm.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=331&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p><strong>Outlook on future life:</strong> Trends in the outlook South Africans have for their future in the medium term also highlight despondency and hopelessness (Figure 2). In 2014, 44% felt their lives would improve over the next five years. In late 2021 this had fallen to 29%. The number who felt that life would worsen rose from 25% in 2014 to 39% in 2021. Those who believed that their situation would remain unchanged fluctuated between 22% and 30% over this period. </p>
<p>The 2021 results suggest that a threshold has been crossed, with a pessimistic outlook becoming more dominant than an optimistic one.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522969/original/file-20230426-14-zownio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522969/original/file-20230426-14-zownio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522969/original/file-20230426-14-zownio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522969/original/file-20230426-14-zownio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=268&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522969/original/file-20230426-14-zownio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522969/original/file-20230426-14-zownio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522969/original/file-20230426-14-zownio.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong>A sense of despondency:</strong> This was observed across all race and gender groups. But from a age profile perspective, older people held more negative views on future life optimism (Figure 3).</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522970/original/file-20230426-16-27qhcp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522970/original/file-20230426-16-27qhcp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522970/original/file-20230426-16-27qhcp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522970/original/file-20230426-16-27qhcp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=202&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522970/original/file-20230426-16-27qhcp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522970/original/file-20230426-16-27qhcp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522970/original/file-20230426-16-27qhcp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=254&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<h2>The drivers</h2>
<p>Our analysis shows that personal future outlook of South Africans is strongly shaped by factors relating to the government performance evaluations, trust in institutions and general democratic evaluations.</p>
<p>Those with a more positive outlook were also more satisfied with government efforts at delivering a range of serives. These included the provision of water, sanitation and electricity, tackling crime and corruption, as well as job creation and social grants. </p>
<p>Those who thought these services were sliding had a more negative outlook.</p>
<p>Similarly, those expressing trust in national and local government, parliament, the Independent Electoral Commission, political parties and politicians all reported a sunnier outlook than those who were more sceptical.</p>
<p>As an example of the scale of these effects, in Figure 4 below, we present the scale of difference in the share offering positive future expectations based on those that are satisfied and dissatisfied with democracy. On average over the 2014-2021 period, the difference between these two groups is 28 percentage points, rising to a high of 33 percentage points in 2021.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522972/original/file-20230426-20-m0lbdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522972/original/file-20230426-20-m0lbdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522972/original/file-20230426-20-m0lbdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522972/original/file-20230426-20-m0lbdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522972/original/file-20230426-20-m0lbdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522972/original/file-20230426-20-m0lbdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522972/original/file-20230426-20-m0lbdx.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<h2>Democracy outlook</h2>
<p>Up until 2020 there was evidence that South Africans, in common with other citizens across the subcontinent and Latin America, conventionally took a more optimistic view of the future through expressing that life would get better in the next five years.</p>
<p>However, as democratic despondency increases, so too does a sense of hopelessness in South Africans. </p>
<p>This begs the question of whether the Freedom Day 2023 mood should be a celebratory one, or one of sober reflection, and re-commitment to the social compact and spirit of accountability and government responsiveness that characterised the dream of 1994.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204566/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joleen Steyn Kotze receives funding from National Research Foundation</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Roberts receives funding from various government and non-governmental agencies for commissioned content in each annual round of the South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS). </span></em></p>A threshold has been crossed, with a pessimistic outlook becoming more dominant than an optimistic one.Joleen Steyn Kotze, Chief Research Specialist in Democracy and Citizenship at the Human Science Research Council and a Research Fellow Centre for African Studies, University of the Free StateBenjamin Roberts, Research Director: Developmental, Capable and Ethical State (DCES) research division, and Coordinator of the South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS), Human Sciences Research CouncilLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2014992023-03-10T12:41:33Z2023-03-10T12:41:33ZPeter Hain: Neil Aggett died fighting apartheid – South Africa’s rulers have betrayed the struggle<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514634/original/file-20230310-17-6nwu0v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Anti-apartheid activist Neil Aggett (29) died in apartheid police detention in 1982.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Charcoal on paper by Dr Amitabh Mitra/Wiki Commons</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/dr-neil-hudson-aggett">Neil Aggett</a>, the trade unionist and anti-apartheid activist who died in detention at the hands of police 41 years ago, was one of very few white South Africans who actively fought apartheid. He was only 29 when he died. </p>
<p>He came from a community enjoying one of the most privileged existences on earth, with a black servant class attending to their every need. Yet he gave that all up because he believed every person – regardless of their “race”, religion, gender or sexuality – had the right to justice, the right to liberty, the right to equality of opportunity. </p>
<p>He was selfless, fighting for others. He lived according to <a href="https://www.nelsonmandela.org/content/page/selected-quotes">Nelson Mandela’s guidance</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Neil was a role model, winning numerous awards and certificates at <a href="https://kingswoodcollege.com/">Kingswood College</a> in Makhanda, Eastern Cape, before studying at the University of Cape Town and completing his medical degree in 1976. </p>
<p>He became a doctor working mainly in overcrowded and desperately under-resourced hospitals reserved for black people across the country. At the same time, he was a champion of workers’ rights and workers’ health and safety. He became a volunteer organiser with the <a href="https://open.uct.ac.za/handle/11427/15859">African Food and Canning Workers’ Union</a>, working without pay, taking additional weekend hospital night shifts to support himself. </p>
<p>But his passionate trade unionism proved fateful. It made him a target of a brutally repressive apartheid police state. He was arrested in late 1981, ending up in Johannesburg’s notorious police headquarters, <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/place/john-vorster-square-police-station-or-johannesburg-central-police-station">John Vorster Square</a>. He emerged from there in a coffin. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/ahmed-timol-inquest-why-uncovering-apartheid-crimes-remains-so-important-85761">Ahmed Timol inquest: why uncovering apartheid crimes remains so important</a>
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<p>The apartheid security police who had brutally interrogated Neil maintained he had “hung himself with a scarf” – just as they claimed others who died in prison had “slipped in the shower” or <a href="https://theconversation.com/ahmed-timol-the-quest-for-justice-for-people-murdered-in-apartheids-jails-116843">“fallen out of a window”</a>. He was the 51st person to die in detention under apartheid. The total later escalated to over 70. </p>
<p>He was the first and only white person to die in detention from torture. No one has ever been convicted for any of <a href="https://newafricabooks.com/products/no-one-to-blame-george-bizos?variant=32109551419428">those 70-plus murders</a>.</p>
<h2>Sacrifice and betrayal</h2>
<p>Today it is taken for granted that Nelson Mandela walked to freedom <a href="https://history.blog.gov.uk/2020/02/11/whats-the-context-the-release-of-nelson-mandela-11-february-1990/">in February 1990</a> after 27 years’ imprisonment, and four years later was elected president. Today it is taken for granted that, however serious South Africa’s problems of <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-can-be-done-to-tackle-the-systemic-causes-of-poverty-in-south-africa-169866">poverty</a>, <a href="https://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=15407">unemployment</a>, <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/wp-content/uploads/sites/22/2019/06/Prof-Emeka-E-Obioha-Emeka-Obioha-ADDRESSING-HOMELESSNESS-THROUGH-PUBLIC-WORKS-PROGRAMMES-IN-SOUTH-AFRICA.pdf">homelessness</a>, <a href="https://www.statecapture.org.za/">corruption</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">power and water cuts</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/link-between-crime-and-politics-in-south-africa-raises-concerns-about-criminal-gangs-taking-over-198160">mafia-like crime</a>, each South African citizen has human rights protected by their <a href="https://www.justice.gov.za/legislation/constitution/saconstitution-web-eng.pdf">constitution</a>.</p>
<p>But none of that was achieved without a bitter fight against merciless opponents. My family’s story was a small part of that. The apartheid security forces dispatched my parents, me, my brother and two small sisters <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/national-orders/recipient/peter-gerald-hain">unwillingly into exile</a>.</p>
<p>Not because my mom and dad had committed the sort of “normal” crimes in democratic societies policed by the rule of law – such as theft, fraud, violence, rape or murder – but because they stood up and fought <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/apartheid">apartheid</a>: the most institutionalised system of racism the world has ever seen. </p>
<p>In exile, the apartheid security service tried to kill me in June 1972 with one of their specialities, a lethal letter bomb, sent to our family’s London address. It would have blown up our family and our home except for a <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/national-orders/recipient/peter-gerald-hain">fault in the trigger mechanism</a>. </p>
<p>Other anti-apartheid campaigners weren’t as fortunate as I was. A letter bomb killed <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/ruth-first">Ruth First</a> in Maputo in 1982 and <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/abram-ramothibi-onkgopotse-tiro">Abram Tiro</a> in Botswana in 1974. Neil Aggett also paid that ultimate price. In any civilised society he would have lived a full life, protecting people’s health as a doctor or protecting food workers’ rights as a trade unionist.</p>
<p>But today, tragically, the many thousands of freedom struggle activists like Neil have been betrayed by the governing African National Congress (ANC) <a href="https://twitter.com/CyrilRamaphosa/status/1297459045041868801/photo/1">politicians who have looted</a> and brought the country nearly to its knees. Similarly betrayed have been the heroes of the liberation struggle, the leaders such as <a href="https://www.nelsonmandela.org/content/page/biography">Mandela</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-anc-is-celebrating-the-year-of-or-tambo-who-was-he-85838">Oliver Tambo</a>, <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/walter-ulyate-sisulu">Walter Sisulu</a>, <a href="https://www.wits.ac.za/media/wits-university/news-and-events/images/documents/Citation_Ahmed%20Kathrada.pdf">Ahmed Kathrada</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/sobukwes-pan-africanist-dream-an-elusive-idea-that-refuses-to-die-52601">Robert Sobukwe</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-bikos-black-consciousness-philosophy-resonates-with-youth-today-46909">Steve Biko</a> and <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/lilian-masediba-ngoyi">Lilian Ngoyi</a> who gave up the prime of their lives to serve harsh jail sentences.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/multiparty-democracy-is-in-trouble-in-south-africa-collapsing-coalitions-are-a-sure-sign-192966">Multiparty democracy is in trouble in South Africa – collapsing coalitions are a sure sign</a>
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<p>South Africans from every walk of life, black and white, young and old, tell me they feel helpless, feel they cannot do anything about power cuts, water cuts, or about dysfunctional or non-existent <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/fm/opinion/editorial/2022-12-07-editorial-the-post-office-doesnt-even-know-its-dead/">postal</a> or <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-revolting-against-inept-local-government-why-it-matters-155483">local municipal services</a>, feel politics doesn’t serve them anymore, feel their vote is worthless – even though it took a momentous fight to get it for everyone. </p>
<p>My message to them, my message to you all, is: learn from South Africa’s struggle history.</p>
<h2>Need for active citizenship</h2>
<p>The struggle giants, the Nelson Mandelas and Oliver Tambos, the Neil Aggetts and <a href="https://www.sahistory.org.za/people/joe-slovo">Joe Slovos</a>, didn’t defeat apartheid on their own. They were leaders of a mass movement of many tens of thousands of ordinary people who, in the most oppressive of conditions, threw themselves into activism.</p>
<p>Many made sacrifices, some small, some big. Some did a little, others did a lot – but they all did something. And they each contributed in whatever way they could to one of the most successful movements for change ever in modern history. </p>
<p>They defeated a powerful police state. They refused to be subjugated by an economic system feeding profitably in a trough of racism. And they beat apartheid.</p>
<p>Back in the 1950s, the 1960s, the 1970s, people said, people feared, that could never happen, might be impossible.</p>
<p>But it was made possible because enough ordinary citizens rose up together and campaigned, and struggled and fought for change. </p>
<p>Courageous school students in Soweto lit a fuse <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-epochal-1976-uprisings-shouldnt-be-reduced-to-a-symbolic-ritual-185073">in June 1976</a>. They were gunned down by police for protesting peacefully, but refused to be cowed, and their defiance triggered a fresh wave of resistance. </p>
<p>Today South Africa must be changed again – radically, and soon. But history teaches us that big change doesn’t normally come from the top. </p>
<h2>Looking forward</h2>
<p>I don’t know if the ANC can be saved from itself. I don’t know if the good people still in the ANC can fully reclaim it from the corrupt ones who riddle the party from top to bottom. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/anc-in-crisis-south-africas-governing-party-is-fighting-to-stay-relevant-5-essential-reads-196580">ANC in crisis: South Africa's governing party is fighting to stay relevant - 5 essential reads</a>
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<p>But meanwhile, every South African can do their bit. First by doing your very best, driven by the vision of an inclusive and united South Africa propagated by democracy’s founding mothers and fathers. </p>
<p>And also saying “No!” to paying a bribe or a backhander for a contract, for a job, for a permit, for a licence, for starting a business, for building a home.
Often it’s very difficult to say “No!”. But until everyone unites to say “No!”, nothing will change. Until a mass uprising said “No!” to apartheid, it didn’t change, and never would have.</p>
<p>South Africans can join a popular uprising to say “No!” and demand change, and stop their beautiful, special country from becoming a failed state. </p>
<p><em>This is an edited version of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghUeVs1YzWI">Neil Aggett lecture</a> delivered at Kingswood College, Makhanda, on 7 March 2023.</em></p>
<p><em>Peter Hain’s <a href="https://www.jonathanball.co.za/component/virtuemart/a-pretoria-boy">memoir</a> A Pretoria Boy: South Africa’s ‘Public Enemy Number One’ is published by Jonathan Ball, as are his thrillers <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rhino-Conspiracy-Peter-Hain/dp/1916207715">The Rhino Conspiracy</a> and <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/63219017">The Elephant Conspiracy</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201499/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Hain is President of Britain's Action for Southern Africa and Chair of the Donald Woods Foundation, a charity based at Hobeni in the Transkei. A Labour member of the House of Lords since 2015, he was an MP for 24 years and government minister for 12 years.</span></em></p>Neil Agget’s passionate trade unionism proved fateful. It made him a target of a brutally repressive apartheid police state.Peter Hain, Visiting Adjunct Professor at Wits Business School, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2011102023-03-08T08:19:44Z2023-03-08T08:19:44ZPower cuts: South Africa’s state of disaster is being contested in court - COVID rulings give clues as to the outcome<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/513911/original/file-20230307-26-zxg9ew.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Demonstrations against South African power supplier ESKOM in 2015.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa has declared <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202302/48152rg11550gon3095.pdf">a second national state of disaster</a> in less than three years. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/202003/43096gon313.pdf">The first</a> was the COVID-19 disaster declaration in March 2020. This allowed the government to pass sweeping lockdown regulations that encroached on human rights – directly and indirectly - including the rights to dignity, privacy, freedom and security of the person and the right to choose and practise a trade or occupation freely. </p>
<p>More recently it issued another disaster declaration in response to the country’s severe electricity supply constraints. The country is experiencing the <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/630667/south-africas-horror-year-of-load-shedding-heres-how-it-compares/">worst power cuts on record</a> as the national utility, Eskom, implements longer and more frequent scheduled blackouts, referred to as loadshedding. The outages are having severe social, economic and ecological effects. The declaration aims to address the effects of the power outages and to avert the possible progression to a “total blackout”.</p>
<p>These loadshedding regulations are not likely to encroach on human rights to the same extent as the COVID measures did as they do not restrict movement or trade. </p>
<p>But they come at a time when memory of the overreach of the lockdown regulations is still fresh. Citizens are also enraged at the government’s failure to deal with a 15-year-old electricity crisis and worsening corruption which contributed to it. </p>
<p>The regulations in response to the pandemic were challenged in a number of court cases. Two (involving three decisions) challenged the prohibition of the sale of tobacco products. <a href="http://www.saflii.org/cgi-bin/disp.pl?file=za/cases/ZAGPPHC/2020/246.html&query=disaster%20management%20act%20AND%20cigarette%26%2365533%3B">One case was brought by the Fair-Trade Independent Tobacco Association</a>. It was heard in the Pretoria High Court. Another was brought by <a href="http://www.saflii.org/cgi-bin/disp.pl?file=za/cases/ZAWCHC/2020/180.html&query=disaster%20management%20act%20AND%20cigarette%26%2365533%3B">British American Tobacco (BAT)</a>. This case was heard first in the Western Cape High Court and <a href="http://www.saflii.org/cgi-bin/disp.pl?file=za/cases/ZASCA/2022/89.html&query=disaster%20management%20act%20AND%20tobacco">subsequently in the Supreme Court of Appeal</a>.</p>
<p>The Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs was a respondent in both cases.</p>
<p>All the cases engaged with arguments relating to the principle of legality, which underlies South Africa’s constitutional democracy. (The <a href="https://theconversation.com/rule-of-law-has-moved-centre-stage-in-lockdown-what-it-is-and-why-it-matters-139045**%20is%20a%20foundational%20constitutional%20value.">rule of law</a> guards against the arbitrary exercise of state power, because it requires a rational relationship between the exercise of government power and the purpose for which such power is exercised (the “rational connection” test).</p>
<p>The way in which the courts dealt with legality in the COVID-19 tobacco cases will bind other courts in their deliberations on the same or similar issues. This is in line with the principle of judicial precedent.</p>
<p>At <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2023-02-14-da-goes-to-court-to-stop-declaration-of-state-of-disaster-on-eskom/">least</a> <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/electricity-crisis-solidarity-heads-to-court-to-have-state-of-disaster-declared-unlawful-20230214">three</a> <a href="https://www.outa.co.za/blog/newsroom-1/post/outa-goes-to-court-to-overturn-the-electricity-state-of-disaster-1234">organisations</a> have announced that they will challenge the latest disaster declaration in court. </p>
<p>Based on the COVID-19 tobacco cases, the courts considering challenges to the load-shedding disaster will need to decide whether there is a “necessary and objective connection” between the steps government has taken and what it aims to achieve. This sets a high standard of proof for the government. </p>
<h2>The arguments</h2>
<p>But a legal challenge to the load-shedding declaration or regulations is not restricted to an argument based on legality. The organisations challenging them could argue, for example, that the definition of “disaster” in the <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/disaster-management-act">Disaster Management Act</a> does not extend to a government-caused load-shedding crisis. They could argue that other legislation should be used to deal with the electricity crisis.</p>
<p>However, as argued elsewhere, these arguments <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/unpacking-disaster-declaration-part-ii-does-serve-legitimate-field/?trackingId=37igS%2BgLsYc%2F2YVWp2V2Ow%3D%3D">may not succeed</a>.</p>
<p>Organisations may also rely on infringement of human rights as a cause of action. But this is unlikely to hold water as the measures proposed in the load-shedding declarations are not restrictive in the sense that the lockdown regulations were.</p>
<p>Notwithstanding these other possible approaches, a cause of action based on legality is likely to feature strongly in the forthcoming cases. Courts will be asked to determine the rational connection between the declaration and its regulations and the overarching legitimate government purpose (alleviating, for example, the effects of the power cuts).</p>
<p>There could, however, be different interpretations of the quality of rationality required, particularly if the minister relies heavily on section 27(2)(n) of the <a href="https://www.gov.za/documents/disaster-management-act">disaster management law</a>. This section allows her to make regulations or issue directions concerning “other steps that may be necessary to prevent an escalation of the disaster”. </p>
<p>Because load-shedding is not a disaster in the ordinary sense, this particular power arguably underlies many of the measures in the new regulations.</p>
<p>In the COVID tobacco cases, the courts considered the quality of rationality required for the exercise of powers in section 27.</p>
<p>The Fair Trade court was sympathetic towards the executive. Its judgement set a low bar for the Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs to prove that her decision to ban the sale of tobacco products was rational. It held that to prove the rational relationship between tobacco prohibition and the government purpose (to protect human life and health and reduce potential strain on the healthcare system), the minister needed only to show a “sufficient rational basis” for her action. </p>
<p>The evidence on which she relied did not have to cogently and conclusively
establish a direct link between tobacco prohibition and the stated government purpose. </p>
<p>In taking this stance, the court in the Fair Trade case opted for a broad interpretation of the word “necessary” in section 27(2)(n).</p>
<p>The courts in the BAT cases took a different view and set the bar much higher. The Western Cape High Court disagreed with the Fair Trade court, and held that the Constitutional Court’s approach in <a href="http://www.saflii.org/za/cases/ZACC/2015/10.html">Pheko & Others v Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality</a> applied. In the Pheko case (which dealt with the declaration of a local, and not a national, disaster), the Constitutional Court held that the use of “necessary” in the similarly worded section 55 of the Disaster Management Act had to be given a narrow construction.</p>
<p>In the BAT case, the High Court <a href="http://www.saflii.org/cgi-bin/disp.pl?file=za/cases/ZAWCHC/2020/180.html&query=disaster%20management%20act%20AND%20cigarette%26%2365533%3B">held that</a> the minister had to show that the regulation was necessary, and not merely sufficiently rational. Courts also needed to assess this evidence objectively, not on the basis of whether the minister subjectively believed a measure was necessary. </p>
<p>Using this test, the court declared the tobacco prohibition invalid.</p>
<p>The Supreme Court of Appeal confirmed the stance of the Western Cape High Court, and thus over-ruled the approach in Fair Trade. </p>
<p>As court challenges to the load-shedding disaster declaration and its regulations mount, parties should take note that the higher bar of a necessary and objective connection set out in Pheko and the BAT cases applies. Challengers will have to prove that there is no necessary and objective connection between government’s action and its purpose, even if the minister thinks there is. The legality of the load-shedding declaration and its implementing regulations will stand or fall on the basis of this test.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tracy-Lynn Field receives funding from the National Research Foundation. She is affiliated with the Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) as board chair and non-executive director. The CER champions the constitutional environmental right and is currently involved in litigation against Mineral Commodities Ltd in relation to its heavy mineral sands operations on South Africa's west coast.</span></em></p>South Africa’s courts are likely to set a high bar in cases brought against the government’s most recent state of disaster declaration.Tracy-Lynn Field, Professor of Environmental and Sustainability Law, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2002882023-02-22T14:14:41Z2023-02-22T14:14:41ZSouth Africa’s power crisis: going off the grid works for the wealthy – but could deepen injustice for the poor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511379/original/file-20230221-22-y6ygjk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=25%2C565%2C4168%2C2225&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A view of Johannesburg's Braamfontein district seconds after a scheduled power cut.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Marco Longar/AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s current electricity crisis has been described as “<a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/659093/eskoms-worst-performing-power-station-where-workers-fear-for-their-life/">a perfect storm</a>”. A number of factors have converged to reach this point: an ageing and inadequately maintained fleet of coal power stations, <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2022/12/08/eskom-delays-maintenance-of-koeberg-nuclear-power-station-s-unit-one">delays</a> in upgrading the Koeberg nuclear power station and significant failures at the recently built <a href="https://mg.co.za/news/2022-09-29-energy-crisis-another-r33-billion-needed-to-complete-medupi-and-kusile/">Medupi and Kusile</a> coal power stations. </p>
<p>Since the beginning of 2022, power utility Eskom’s inability to meet the country’s electricity demand has resulted in unprecedented loadshedding (scheduled power cuts). In 2022, electricity interruptions totalled <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/can-adding-rooftop-solar-really-move-the-loadshedding-needle-2023-02-14">3,775 hours over 205 days</a>. The situation almost certainly will not improve any time soon.</p>
<p>At the same time, Gauteng – South Africa’s most populous province and its economic hub – has experienced <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">critical water supply issues</a>. In late 2022 and early 2023, the combined impact of heat waves, intermittent pumping of water because of electricity interruptions and infrastructure failure has led to demand outstripping water supply. Residents of Gauteng’s biggest municipalities have experienced near-daily low water pressure or water cuts.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">Power cuts in South Africa are playing havoc with the country's water system</a>
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<p>Many private individuals and businesses are investing in <a href="https://theconversation.com/home-power-backup-systems-electrical-engineers-answer-your-questions-199808">alternative electricity</a> and water sources. The exact number is uncertain – most systems are <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-silent-revolution-those-with-cash-go-solar-2022-08-15/">not registered</a>. Alternative investments include water tanks, boreholes, solar panels and diesel generators. These solutions cost anywhere from R4,000 (about US$220) for rainwater tanks and <a href="https://www.aquify.co.za/borehole-cost/">up to R180,000</a> (almost US$10,000) for a borehole. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/home-power-backup-systems-electrical-engineers-answer-your-questions-199808">cost of installing</a> residential solar panels is anywhere from R8,000 (about US$440) to R10,000 (around US$550) per kWp (a measure of how high the panels’ power output is). Inverters and batteries are also pricey. Even with financing options, most households can’t afford alternatives.</p>
<p>These investments are generally efforts to maintain a level of normality and to survive through unreliable water and electricity supply. But the cumulative effect of these individual actions could have significant consequences for inequality and service provision for the poor. <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/03/09/new-world-bank-report-assesses-sources-of-inequality-in-five-countries-in-southern-africa">South Africa is already one of the most unequal countries in the world</a>.</p>
<p>Poor people are less able to afford alternatives for power and water. There’s also the risk that municipalities will gradually be unable to cross-subsidise services to the poor as they lose revenue from wealthy consumers.</p>
<p>Social justice considerations have been at the forefront of South Africa’s <a href="https://www.climatecommission.org.za/just-transition-framework">just transition</a> from coal-based to renewable electricity generation. But this has largely focused on the labour force and affected communities. Less attention has been paid to the justice implications of electricity distribution.</p>
<p>Despite the potential negative consequences of private investments in off-grid water and electricity, these could be mobilised to help address the current crises rather than exacerbate it. However, this requires re-imagining the role of the state and citizens, reworking municipal funding models, and encouraging private investors to support the grid in various ways.</p>
<h2>What do the Quality of Life data tell us?</h2>
<p>In early February 2023 we used survey data from 2013 to 2021 to show how Gauteng households were investing in alternative electricity and water provision. We examined who was accessing these alternative sources and who was not. </p>
<p>The data for this project was drawn from the <a href="https://www.gcro.ac.za/">Gauteng City-Region Observatory</a> (GCRO)‘s regular Quality of Life survey, which is designed to gather a representative sample of Gauteng residents. It includes questions about demographics, living conditions and socio-economic circumstances. All the datasets are freely available to download through the University of Cape Town’s <a href="https://www.datafirst.uct.ac.za/dataportal/index.php/catalog/GCRO/?page=1&sort_by=title&sort_order=asc&ps=15&repo=GCRO">DataFirst</a> platform.</p>
<p>The data reveal that access to alternative electricity and water sources has increased over time. In 2013/14, only 0.8% of residents reported having access to solar or wind energy, while 0.3% had a generator.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=833&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511114/original/file-20230220-26-m6sqiy.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1047&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Household access to alternative electricity and water sources is increasing over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By 2020/21, these figures had jumped to 5% and 4%, respectively. Despite this increase, only a small minority of Gauteng residents (about 1 in 20) have access to alternative water and electricity. </p>
<p>Affluent households are proportionately more likely to invest in alternative electricity and water sources than poorer households. In 2020/21, 2% of respondents with a monthly household income below R3,201 (around US$177) had a rainwater tank. Some 4% of this income group had a borehole or well. In contrast, 9% of the respondents in the higher income groups – a monthly household income over R25,600 (about US$1,415) – had access to a rainwater tank or borehole. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=588&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511115/original/file-20230220-14-i473nr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Affluent households are more likely to have access to alternative water sources than poor households.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The uneven increase in access to alternative electricity is particularly notable. Access to solar power grew from 0.3% in 2015/16 to 3% in 2020/21 for households earning less than R800/month. For the highest income group (monthly household income more than R51,200), access to solar increased from 4% to 12% over the same period. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511118/original/file-20230220-24-vbsjqm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=694&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over time, wealthier households have accessed alternative electricity substantially more than poorer households.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GCRO</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Implications for a just transition</h2>
<p>The gap is clearly widening between affluent households who can shield themselves from electricity and water interruptions, and poorer households who cannot afford to do so. </p>
<p>And this gap could widen further because of how municipal services are financed. Under the current funding model, municipalities depend on revenue from basic service provision (electricity, water and refuse) to fund their mandated activities. They use the revenue from industries, businesses and wealthy consumers to cross-subsidise services for the poor. </p>
<p>This model has been <a href="https://www.polity.org.za/article/same-old-funding-model-cant-keep-south-african-cities-going-or-serve-residents-2021-08-13">critiqued</a> for being unsustainable and creating perverse incentives for municipalities to elevate tariffs and encourage high users to keep consuming electricity. But it at least ensures access to services for poor households.</p>
<p>The current move by residents and businesses towards self-generated electricity has potentially dire consequences for municipalities’ ability to ensure fiscal stability and equitable access to services.</p>
<p>It also has some technical drawbacks. Private investments have the potential to add strain and complexity to the grid. Grid-charged battery systems increase electricity consumption and post-loadshedding peaks. Solar photovoltaic installations reduce pressure on the grid during the day. But, they leave the evening peak unchanged. Power plants must continue producing electricity in excess during the daytime demand to ensure they can meet the evening peak. </p>
<p>Private borehole installations could cause uneven depletion of aquifers. They could also negatively affect groundwater management and undermine the availability of these water resources for broader society. </p>
<h2>Mobilising private investments</h2>
<p>However, there are opportunities to harness private investments to cope with the current electricity and potential future water crises.</p>
<p>Municipalities are beginning to give households and businesses incentives to sell their excess power back to the grid. This could reduce the cost of electricity for municipalities, maximising their ability to cross-subsidise service delivery for the poor. </p>
<p>Where households and businesses have invested in batteries, they could store solar energy and sell it back to the grid during the evening peak.</p>
<p><em>In addition to the authors, the Off-grid Cities project team members include: Fiona Anciano, Charlotte Lemanski, Margot Rubin, Laurence Piper, SJ Cooper-Knock, Temba Middelmann, Brian Murahwa, Joanna Watterson, Eyong Tarh, Miguel Isaac and Zackeen Thomas.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200288/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This article is an output of the Off-Grid Cities: Elite infrastructure secession and social justice project, which is funded by the National Research Foundation of South Africa (Grant Number 129484). The project is a partnership between the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO), the University of the Western Cape, the University of Cambridge, Cardiff University and the University of Sheffield, which explores the dynamics and implications of households and businesses investing in alternative water and electricity.</span></em></p>Very little attention has been paid to the justice implications of electricity distribution.Christina Culwick Fatti, Senior researcher, urban sustainability transitions, environmental governance and resilience, Gauteng City-Region ObservatorySamkelisiwe Khanyile, Researcher, Gauteng City-Region ObservatoryLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1998082023-02-17T10:50:34Z2023-02-17T10:50:34ZHome power backup systems – electrical engineers answer your questions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510817/original/file-20230217-25-kdw80u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africans are taking their power supply into their own hands with backup systems that don't rely on power utility Eskom.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa’s electricity utility Eskom has made it clear that “loadshedding” – rolling scheduled power cuts – <a href="https://ewn.co.za/2023/01/06/eskom-says-stage-3-and-4-load-shedding-pattern-to-continue-indefinitely">isn’t going to end any time soon</a>. This reality, and President Cyril Ramaphosa’s announcement during his annual state of the nation speech on 9 February 2023 that <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-02-09-ramaphosas-tax-incentives-a-ray-of-light-for-solar-panel-roll-out-to-ease-sas-energy-crisis/">tax incentives for solar power use</a> are imminent, mean that many people <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">are considering</a> alternative electricity supply systems for their homes.</p>
<p>But deciding on the best system isn’t a simple matter. There’s a bewildering array of jargon to sift through and many elements to consider, from the right kind of inverter to the size of your solar panels. </p>
<p>We are electrical engineers who are working on a standalone charger for small electric vehicles with the <a href="https://sanedi.org.za/">South African National Energy Development Institute</a> as part of the <a href="https://www.leap-re.eu/">Long-Term Joint European Union - African Union Research and Innovation Partnership on Renewable Energy</a>. The way the charger is designed resembles the sort of system needed for domestic power cut solutions. So, we’re able to answer a few questions for those who feel overwhelmed by the options. Our full and detailed instructions for designing a loadshedding system are <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UGY-cR-HHXbmjFXhyJVvWlrpax9CbAqw/view">available here</a>.</p>
<h2>What is an inverter?</h2>
<p>This is a key component of any alternative power system. It’s an electronic device that changes direct current (like energy stored in a battery) into alternating current (power for your home).</p>
<p>There are a few kinds of inverters. Some are grid-tied (synchronous) with Eskom’s power grid. They are typically used with solar systems that augment the Eskom supply. But they are not suitable for loadshedding solutions. </p>
<p>You also get off-grid (grid-forming) inverters, which form their own mini-grid and can operate during power cuts.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A small white box with wires coming out of it" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510818/original/file-20230217-24-ilirdv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An inverter system will look something like this.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Suranto W/Shutterstock/Editorial use only</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We recommend a hybrid inverter, which can be grid-tied to augment supply and seamlessly continue operation as an off-grid solution during loadshedding. You want a hybrid inverter that can connect to the grid, battery backup, and to solar panels. To extract the maximum power from the solar panels, be sure to get one that has maximum power point tracking (MPPT). </p>
<h2>What size should the system be?</h2>
<p>This purchase should be a long term investment. The inverter must be able to carry the sum of all the loads that are drawing power at any instant in time and the battery must be able to supply the energy required. </p>
<p>To reduce both the upfront capital cost and operational expenditure, you need to decide what is essential. Lights? Your washing machine? The stove and electric kettle? Then you need to make sure they are as energy efficient as possible before you size the backup system. For example, old incandescent lights use ten times more energy than LED lights do.</p>
<p>This table lists a few typical household items and their power consumption. </p>
<iframe title="[ Power and energy consumption of household appliances ]" aria-label="Table" id="datawrapper-chart-Oc5GY" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/Oc5GY/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="896" data-external="1" width="100%"></iframe>
<h2>Why do I need batteries for my system?</h2>
<p>It is theoretically possible for an inverter to generate electricity for household use directly from solar panels. But the supply from panels is intermittent and often not powerful enough to reliably supply power to the varying loads in the house. </p>
<p>To overcome this problem, energy is stored in the batteries. This provides a more stable source of power which responds to demand during loadshedding.</p>
<p>Battery capacity is specified as kWh (kilowatt hours) or Ah (ampere hours). This determines the amount of energy it can supply. A battery with a capacity of 5kWh can theoretically supply 5kW for an hour. But if a lithium battery is discharged beyond 20% of its capacity, it loses capacity and ages faster. A 5kWh battery therefore has an effective capacity of only 4kWh. It can supply 4kW for one hour, or 1kW for four hours. </p>
<p>As a practical example, if you want to power only 20 10W LED lights and a medium sized LED TV, drawing a total of 0.5kW, a 3.5kWh battery will suffice for four hours. </p>
<h2>Are solar panels crucial for a backup system?</h2>
<p>No. The batteries store energy to provide a stable supply to the inverter when needed. Technically, you can use the mains power to charge the batteries, rather than rely on solar panels. Solar panels are merely there to augment the supply of electricity and could give you a bit more range during loadshedding if the sun is shining.</p>
<p>But if everyone installs backup systems without solar panels, we are just using batteries to carry us through power cuts. That increases the load on Eskom outside loadshedding periods, as the batteries must be replenished. This will neuter Eskom’s ability to use loadshedding as a grid management tool. It could <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-grid-is-under-pressure-the-how-and-the-why-170897">destabilise the grid and lead to a complete blackout</a>.</p>
<p>And if, <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/climate_future/energy/tax-breaks-for-rooftop-solar-experts-weigh-in-on-how-it-could-work-20230214">as is expected</a>, the finance minister introduces tax breaks for solar generation expenses in the budget speech on 22 February, solar panels will have to be part of your setup if you want to benefit from these incentives. </p>
<p>No matter what Enoch Godongwana announces, we think this is a good time to make the switch to a solar powered backup system, for your peace of mind and future savings.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africas-power-grid-is-under-pressure-the-how-and-the-why-170897">South Africa's power grid is under pressure: the how and the why</a>
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<h2>How much does it all cost?</h2>
<p>Inverter prices are falling as the market grows, and vary across suppliers. Inverters cost about R3,000 (about US$165) per kW for bottom of the range, and closer to R7,000 (about US$380) per kW for top of the range. Most households will get by with a 3kW to 5kW inverter, if its loads are managed well, costing between R9,000 (around $US490) and R35,000 (about US$1,915). </p>
<p>Lithium (LiFePO4) batteries also vary in cost but normally retail for about R5,000 (about US$270) to R7,000 per kWh. Most households will get by with a 5kWh to 10kWh battery if the loads are optimised and managed well. So you’re looking at a cost of between R25,000 (around US$1,370) and R70,000 (US$3,830 or so) for the batteries.</p>
<p>Solar panels tend to range from R8,000 (about US$440) to R10,000 (around US$550) per kWp (a measure of how high the panels’ power output is). Again, they’re not crucial, but are necessary if you want the system to pay for itself over time. </p>
<h2>Can I install this system myself?</h2>
<p>No, unless you’re a certified electrician. The inverter needs to be installed into the distribution board and the cost will depend on how many of your circuit breakers need to be moved to the backup as well as how easy the solution is to install; installation typically ranges from R10,000 to R20,000 (just about US$1100). The inverter must be approved by the municipality if you want to feed back into the grid. Installing the solar panels is separate, and costs vary widely.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199808/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Deciding on the best system isn’t a simple matter. There’s a bewildering array of jargon to sift through and many elements to consider.MJ (Thinus) Booysen, Professor in Engineering, Chair in the Internet of Things, Stellenbosch UniversityArnold Rix, Senior Lecturer, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1991062023-02-04T13:35:05Z2023-02-04T13:35:05ZRobberies surge as criminals take advantage of South Africa’s power outages<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/507867/original/file-20230202-7334-5x6ocd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AFP via Getty Images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The acute energy crisis in South Africa has adversely affected all aspects of the society. Regular and lengthy power outages – which started <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/heritage/history-in-decades/eskom-2003-2012/#:%7E:text=His%20low%2Dkey%20approach%20came,the%20integrity%20of%20the%20grid">in 2007</a> are also contributing to an escalation in the levels of criminal activity, especially street crime. The most recent <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/crimestats.php">quarterly crime statistics</a> – have undermined an <a href="https://mg.co.za/business/2023-01-21-blackouts-add-to-risk-of-recession/">ailing economy</a> and <a href="https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/load-shedding-impacting-food-security-sa/">food security</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.gov.za/speeches/statement-minister-health-impact-loadshedding-provision-healthcare-services-and">health</a> and <a href="https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/education-sector-concerned-as-impact-of-load-shedding-cuts-down-valuable-teaching-studying-time-20220920#:%7E:text=%22Load%20shedding%20is%20disruptive%20to,reliant%20on%20technology%2C%20said%20Cembi.">educational</a> outcomes.</p>
<p>It has become evident that power cuts added to a significant increase in all robbery categories – for July to September 2022 – compared to the same period in 2021. This corresponded with the most severe power cuts the country had ever experienced.</p>
<p>In addition, the police service’s <a href="https://www.saps.gov.za/services/downloads/Annual-Crime-2021_2022-web.pdf">annual crime data</a> for the period 2012/13-2021/22 shows there was a spike in robberies in 2015. This was a year of <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/energy/470217-scary-load-shedding-statistic-revealed.html">more power cuts</a> (35 days) than previous years.</p>
<p>Based on claims data, <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/626974/increase-in-home-break-ins-during-longer-load-shedding-periods/">insurance companies</a> are suggesting a strong link between power cuts and property crime in wealthier areas. In addition, a growing number of <a href="https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-07-08-load-shedding-worsens-crimes-in-communities-cpfs/">reports</a> from both rich and poor parts of the country link power cuts to increases in interpersonal crime, particularly <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-06-criminals-are-enjoying-load-shedding-say-cape-town-communities-affected-by-crime/">robberies</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://sandtonchronicle.co.za/317525/stay-alert-with-these-load-shedding-safety-tips/">police</a> and the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCASycCNR6M">police minister</a> have publicly linked power cuts to robbery and other crimes in recent months. </p>
<p>So, how are the power cuts contributing to increases in robberies?</p>
<p>It is not possible to provide a definitive answer to this question as no rigorous studies showing causality between power cuts and robbery occurrence in the country have been undertaken. But one can look to crime prevention and policing theory, and studies from other countries, to provide insights into the possible link between power outages and robbery. This theory advocates that power outages (the power utility, Eskom, calls these “loadshedding”) undermine crime prevention measures. This is especially so at night as these measures are largely dependent on street lighting. Power outages also undermine the effectiveness of policing as patrols and other police services are curtailed.</p>
<h2>Electricity and crime</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.saferspaces.org.za/understand/entry/crime-prevention-through-environmental-design-cpted">crime prevention through environmental design theory</a> is helpful.</p>
<p>It uses two principal measures – target hardening; and surveillance and visibility.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://www.college.police.uk/guidance/neighbourhood-crime/interventions-situational-crime-prevention">Target hardening</a></strong> uses measures such as locked doors, gates, fencing, alarm systems, CCTV cameras and burglar bars in and around buildings to deter criminals. It is widely accepted in the <a href="https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/449230">criminology literature</a> that target hardening has the potential to reduce the risk of home invasions and business robberies in some contexts. These measures should ideally be combined with other crime prevention interventions. </p>
<p>In South Africa, <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/trending/587286/how-criminals-are-taking-advantage-of-increased-load-shedding-in-south-africa/">private security companies</a> have suggested that criminals have taken advantage of the fact that many home and business security systems are compromised during power outages. </p>
<p>Yet, robberies tend to be more prevalent in <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Policing-and-Boundaries-in-a-Violent-Society-A-South-African-Case-Study/Lamb/p/book/9780367748142">poorer urban areas</a> in the country, where residents cannot afford to install such security systems. And most robberies take place in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00038-018-1129-z">public spaces</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africans-are-feeling-more-insecure-do-ramaphosas-plans-add-up-176991">South Africans are feeling more insecure: do Ramaphosa's plans add up?</a>
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<p><strong><a href="https://www.saferspaces.org.za/understand/entry/crime-prevention-through-environmental-design-cpted">Surveillance and visibility</a></strong> assumes that people are likely to be discouraged from robbing others in public spaces, where their actions will be clearly seen by others (“eyes on the street”) and they may be identified and caught by police.</p>
<p>This can include the presence of people in the area, either going about their normal daily activities or actively patrolling, and the presence of CCTV cameras. Lighting in public spaces, especially at night, is nonetheless an essential requirement for visibility and surveillance to be effective. <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1745-9133.2004.tb00058.x?casa_token=D1oCV46o9fMAAAAA:Oxla0S7kylB_6vXk0XFOSrp9M-acEsmQKTDZl1NEf9WK2Z5L-Qlp-v7xiYEZ7PCExTOoLT67suQlVzI">Studies</a> from other countries have shown that street lighting and CCTV cameras are effective in reducing robberies. </p>
<p>Power outages, particularly at night, clearly undermine visibility. This is evident from the many <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2022-07-06-criminals-are-enjoying-load-shedding-say-cape-town-communities-affected-by-crime/">reports</a> of people being targeted by criminals while walking in the streets after dark.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-are-playing-havoc-with-the-countrys-water-system-197952">Power cuts in South Africa are playing havoc with the country's water system</a>
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<p><a href="http://wikinight.free.fr/wp-content/uploads/Securite/Securite%20des%20biens%20et%20personnes/Preventing_Crime_what_works_what_doesn_t_what_s_promising.pdf#page=227">Systematic reviews</a> of policing research have shown that regular and visible police patrols, mainly when directed at crime hot spots, are an effective crime prevention intervention. Obviously, police cannot satisfactorily patrol at night during power outages. This makes the work of South Africa’s police more <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2022-09-22-police-have-got-injured-because-of-darkness-bheki-cele-says-about-load-shedding/">dangerous</a>. </p>
<p>In response to a <a href="https://pmg.org.za/committee-question/98/">parliamentary question</a> about the impact of power outages on the work of the South African Police Service (SAPS), Bheki Cele, the police minister, responded that:</p>
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<p>(It) has an adverse effect on service delivery in the SAPS … on all communication and network operations, including the registering of case dockets … A number of stations cannot function at night because there are no lights … </p>
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<p>There have also been reports of some <a href="https://mybroadband.co.za/news/security/467675-problems-crash-10111-emergency-call-centre-in-major-city.html">police emergency call centres</a> being uncontactable during power outages.</p>
<h2>No easy solutions</h2>
<p>There are no practical short- to medium-term crime prevention alternatives for the authorities to pursue during power outages, other than exempting high crime areas from the outages. That might not be possible in such a severe <a href="https://theconversation.com/power-cuts-in-south-africa-trend-to-get-off-the-grid-is-gathering-pace-but-total-independence-is-still-a-way-off-197924">electricity crisis</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/eskom-ceo-quits-why-finding-a-new-head-for-south-africas-struggling-power-utility-wont-end-the-blackouts-196667">Eskom CEO quits: why finding a new head for South Africa's struggling power utility won't end the blackouts</a>
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<p>One positive development has been <a href="https://www.iol.co.za/weekend-argus/news/delft-residents-take-to-the-streets-as-crime-increases-during-load-shedding-9ed50a9e-36dd-4613-ba87-c93731ce1ae7">increased community patrols</a> in some areas. Regrettably, some of this community crime prevention work has led to acts of <a href="https://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/463481/mec-urges-public-to-leave-justice-to-the-law-as-vigilante-attack-leaves-5-dead">vigilantism</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199106/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Guy Lamb receives funding from Norwegian Research Council, the British Academy and FCDO . He is affiliated with South Africa's National Planning Commission. </span></em></p>Security companies suggest that criminals take advantage of the fact that many home and business security systems get compromised during power outages.Guy Lamb, Criminologist / Senior Lecturer, Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1937502022-11-13T05:29:05Z2022-11-13T05:29:05ZSouth Africa is hooked on fossil fuels: how it got here and how it can get out<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/494630/original/file-20221110-15-uw9p98.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa's Kusile coal-fired power station in Mpumalanga.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Getty images</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa has experienced power shortages with <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/640883/planning-for-a-future-without-eskom/">rolling blackouts</a> on an unprecedented scale in 2022. This state of affairs is largely due to technical failures at its <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/amabhungane-the-collapse-of-old-king-coal-20220927">ageing fleet of coal power plants</a>.</p>
<p>The present power generation shortage is due to the power utility Eskom’s failure to add sufficient new electricity generation to the grid. This meant that it had to keep ailing old power stations going beyond their projected life span. The coal plants are prone to frequent renewed breakdown. In addition, their maintenance and parts replacements are becoming <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/companies/amabhungane-the-collapse-of-old-king-coal-part-3-the-war-over-the-future-of-coal-begins-20221101">prohibitively expensive</a>.</p>
<p>Given the major contribution that the burning of coal makes to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, electricity generation from coal is in any case globally viewed as extremely problematic, with major pressure and incentives to scale this down.</p>
<p>South Africa is currently ranked eighth in the world in terms of the total amount of coal used for electricity generation. This is based on country-by-country global statistics on coal power generation. The statistics are produced on an annual basis and are <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/">widely available</a>. The largest coal user by far is China, followed by India, though these are also the world’s most populous nations.</p>
<p>In terms of energy consumption from coal per capita, South Africa also ranks among the highest in the world with just under <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coal-consumption-per-capita">16,500 kWh per person per annum</a> This is in line with other highly coal dependent countries. It is roughly on par with China, South Korea and Australia and slightly lower than the top three – Estonia, Kazakhstan and Taiwan.</p>
<p>When it comes to dependency on coal power plants, South Africa is in a class of its own – 85% of its electricity is produced in coal power plants. This is way higher than all countries – bar two. <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-coal">Only</a> Mongolia and Kosovo have a higher dependency. They have tiny populations – Mongolia has just over <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/mongolia-population/">3 million</a> people, Kosovo just <a href="https://countrymeters.info/en/Kosovo">under 2 million</a>. South Africa’s population is <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/south-africa-population/">over 60 million</a>.</p>
<p>South Africa’s percentage of electricity from coal has decreased only marginally – by 9 percentage points – since 1985. This is in contrast to other previously coal dependent countries that have made much more dramatic moves to carbon-free power. For example, the UK got 58% of its electricity from coal <a href="https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/">in 1985</a>. Today this is down to 2%, partly thanks to massive <a href="https://www.renewableuk.com/page/WindEnergy">investments in wind power</a>.</p>
<p>South Africa has climatic conditions suitable for solar and wind power, and should in theory similarly be able to reduce its coal dependence. A drive towards low-carbon electricity generation however requires governmental support, which has mostly not been forthcoming in the last decade. </p>
<h2>The history</h2>
<p>As it’s a country with <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coal/south-africa-coal/">rich coal deposits</a>, South Africa’s proliferation of coal plants was to be expected in the 1970s and 1980s. Because it’s also a water scarce country, possibilities for hydropower plants were always limited. And while one nuclear plant was constructed, the increasing isolation of apartheid-era South Africa made it difficult to access international expertise needed for further nuclear developments.</p>
<p>Renewable technologies are relatively new. They only <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020">became commercially competitive</a> about 10 years ago, and were not considered a viable alternative to fossil fuels before then.</p>
<p>When the need for more power generation in South Africa became apparent in the first years of the millennium, a time when the electrification of previously unconnected communities was booming, the choice was made to construct two further coal plants, <a href="https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2021/03/17/eskom-medupi-kusile-yelland">Medupi and Kusile</a>. </p>
<p>These builds have, however, proved technologically flawed, way over budget and badly behind schedule.</p>
<p>When the first series of rolling power cuts had to be <a href="https://www.ee.co.za/wp-content/uploads/legacy/Energize_Oct09/01_GT_Review.pdf">implemented in 2007</a>, it became clear that energy security planning and implementation had gone wrong. The subsequent electricity plan from 2010 recommended major developments in nuclear and renewable energy.</p>
<p>In 2015 the government stalled the construction of planned new solar and wind plants in favour of a highly controversial and ultimately blocked <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-african-presidents-last-ditch-effort-to-ram-through-a-nuclear-power-deal-87018">nuclear deal with Russia</a>. Since the resumption of the renewables electricity programme in 2018 some wind and solar plants have been built, but at nowhere near the rate needed to dent the dominant role of coal.</p>
<h2>A lack of unity of purpose</h2>
<p>Despite the electricity crisis having now become urgent and obvious, with <a href="https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/630667/south-africas-horror-year-of-load-shedding-heres-how-it-compares/">several hours of power cuts during as many as half of the days</a> in 2022, there has been no unity in purpose to tackle the issue.</p>
<p>There are loud calls, also <a href="https://www.news24.com/fin24/economy/eskom-debt-takeover-godongwana-says-gas-nuclear-will-be-part-of-conditions-20221101">supported by influential individuals</a> within the ruling African National Congress party, to maintain South Africa’s coal-intensive trajectory. The proponents argue that the coal power stations can simply be managed better, and that any new power generation should mainly be <a href="https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/mantashe-restates-his-positions-on-energy-at-conference-but-highlights-nuclear-2022-10-18">focused on nuclear and gas</a>.</p>
<p>The opposing view is that South Africa should align with the global trends to massively <a href="https://theconversation.com/south-africa-could-produce-a-lot-more-renewable-energy-heres-what-it-needs-185897">develop new solar and wind</a> power plants. Its advocates justify this option by pointing to the lower cost of these technologies, short project completion times and environmental considerations.</p>
<p>Despite enjoying weather conditions that are superbly suited for <a href="https://www.wasaproject.info/">wind</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-southern-africas-interior-is-an-ideal-place-to-generate-solar-energy-161030">solar</a> farms, South Africa has been extremely slow to kickstart its renewable energy generating infrastructure.</p>
<p>South Africa could have followed the example of China. Although the largest user of coal in the world, it is already making <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/10/china-solar-wind-renewables-capacity-eu-power-2025">major moves</a> towards a far lower carbon footprint. Over the five year period 2021-2025, China plans to <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-do-chinas-gigantic-wind-and-solar-bases-mean-for-its-climate-goals/">add solar and wind plants producing 570 GW</a> of electricity. </p>
<p>To put this figure into perspective, this is roughly ten times <a href="https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/ZAF">South Africa’s present total power capacity</a>.</p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>The office of the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, comes across as sympathetic to mass renewable energy developments. It has aligned itself with the recently published <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/content/south-africa%27s-just-energy-transition-investment-plan-jet-ip-2023-2027">Just Energy Transition Investment Plan</a>. </p>
<p>The plan envisages accelerated building of more wind and solar farms to replace decommissioned coal power stations. It also tries to mitigate lowered economic activity and job losses in the coal fields and adjacent coal plants. It goes further in exploring energy exports in the form of <a href="https://theconversation.com/green-hydrogen-sounds-like-a-win-for-developing-countries-but-cost-and-transport-are-problems-191295">green hydrogen</a>, an energy storage medium fed by renewables, and the current global move towards electric vehicles.</p>
<p>If supported and implemented, the plan will result in better power supply in only three to five years from now. This however presupposes that the government will rally behind this initiative and work together rather than sending contradictory messages.</p>
<p>In the interim, power shortages will persist in South Africa.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193750/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation.</span></em></p>When it comes to dependency on coal power plants, South Africa is in a class of its own: 85% of its electricity is produced in coal power plants.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1878892022-08-03T16:03:47Z2022-08-03T16:03:47ZSouth Africa needs stronger security in place to stop the sabotage of its power supply<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477200/original/file-20220802-14-80pssz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EFE-EPA/Kim Ludbrook</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South African president Cyril Ramaphosa recently <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/speeches/address-president-cyril-ramaphosa-actions-address-electricity-crisis%2C-union-buildings%2C-tshwane">outlined</a> plans to solve the country’s devastating electricity supply crisis. But he didn’t mention the country’s ability to protect its energy infrastructure as a prerequisite to any solution.</p>
<p>South Africa has had power cuts <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/1/power-cuts-in-south-africa-what-you-need-to-now">since 2007</a> when Eskom, the power utility, began failing to meet demand. This got worse every year. The power utility is struggling to keep its <a href="https://www.power-technology.com/news/eskom-coal-power/">aged coal-fired power stations</a> running after many years of poor maintenance. It is also <a href="https://www.esi-africa.com/industry-sectors/asset-maintenance/generating-capacity-woes-continues-to-bedevil-eskom/">struggling</a> to get its two new power stations to operate at full capacity.</p>
<p>Explaining some of the recent power cuts, Ramaphosa said that some of the energy infrastructure had been <a href="https://www.enca.com/news/sas-power-stations-ramaphosa-says-theres-deliberate-sabotage">sabotaged</a>. </p>
<p>We flagged this in an earlier <a href="https://theconversation.com/hybrid-warfare-is-on-the-rise-globally-might-south-africas-eskom-be-its-latest-victim-173166">article</a>. We argued that Eskom was the target of hybrid warfare operations aimed at destabilising South Africa’s national power generation capability. </p>
<p>The question is whether the country has the necessary security capabilities to protect its energy infrastructure from such threats and risks. An assessment of the security capabilities also has to include a fit for purpose test of the legislation for the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201911/4286628-11act8of2019criticalinfraprotectact.pdf">protection of critical infrastructure</a>.</p>
<p>Enhanced intelligence capacities are required to detect, deter and neutralise threats such as sabotage, or subversion caused by rioting. More – and appropriately equipped – security forces are also needed to physically secure critical infrastructure. These could be privately or publicly funded.</p>
<p>Our view is that the country does not have what is required where and when it is needed. A comprehensive approach is needed – including managing security threats – to address its energy crisis. This requires collaboration between the state and private sector to implement the president’s long-term energy security vision. </p>
<h2>Hybrid attacks now common</h2>
<p>South Africa is not the only country whose energy infrastructure is facing security threats. There are <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/za/en/insights/industry/public-sector/cyberattack-critical-infrastructure-cybersecurity.html">numerous examples</a> of attacks on critical infrastructure. These are typically <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/critical-infrastructures-under-daily-attack-erncip-head-georg-peter">cyber-related</a>. But physical attacks such as <a href="https://www.da.org.za/2021/11/eskom-infrastructure-sabotage-is-consistent-with-the-july-insurrectionists-modus-operandi">sabotage</a> also occur.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/critical-infrastructure-attacks-why-south-africa-should-worry">Institute for Security Studies</a> argues that attacks on the critical infrastructure of developing countries, such as South Africa, could be “<a href="https://issafrica.org/iss-today/critical-infrastructure-attacks-why-south-africa-should-worry">potentially devastating</a>”. South Africa’s national security vulnerabilities, combined with the security risks to a monolithic state owned entity with no backup, could exacerbate the country’s power supply insecurities. </p>
<p>Cyber attacks on Eskom’s critical infrastructure could lead to severe damage. The result could be corresponding losses of generation capacity and damage to the economy. </p>
<p>National security vulnerabilities can be reduced by state security capabilities that are equal to the task. A <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/content/report-expert-panel-july-2021-civil-unrest">Report of the Expert Panel</a> into <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57818215">civil unrest</a> in the country in July 2021 revealed serious capacity problems within the state security sector. The sector is mandated to forewarn government, and to protect critical infrastructure and the public against <a href="https://journals.sas.ac.uk/amicus/article/view/1671">hybrid threats</a>. These include terrorism, subversion, sabotage, espionage and organised crime. </p>
<p>This weakness was also highlighted in the 2018 <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201903/high-level-review-panel-state-security-agency.pdf">High-Level Review Panel on the State Security Agency</a>. It concluded that the country’s <a href="https://nationalgovernment.co.za/units/view/42/state-security-agency-ssa">State Security Agency</a> had been</p>
<blockquote>
<p>compromised by factionalism, mismanagement and inefficiency.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The agency is South Africa’s primary authority tasked with protecting the country against such hybrid threats. Yet it is in a state of disrepair. This calls for the country to focus efforts on (at least) the capability to secure Eskom against obvious national security threats. </p>
<h2>The importance of critical infrastructure</h2>
<p>The protection of South Africa’s energy infrastructure falls within the remit of the new <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201911/4286628-11act8of2019criticalinfraprotectact.pdf">Critical Infrastructure Protection Act 8 of 2019</a>. Such infrastructure is crucial for the effective functioning of the economy, <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201911/4286628-11act8of2019criticalinfraprotectact.pdf">national security</a> and public safety. </p>
<p>Critical infrastructure consists of national assets that are viewed as having strategic importance. South Africa has plenty of critical infrastructure spread across its length and breadth – measuring <a href="https://www.worlddata.info/africa/south-africa/index.php#:%7E:text=South%20Africa%20is%20a%20country,25th%20biggest%20in%20the%20world">about 1.219 million km²</a>. These include the Eskom energy grid – <a href="https://www.eskom.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/TDP-Report-2019-2029_Final.pdf">including power stations, sub-stations and transmission networks</a> – dams, the banking system and oil storage. The sheer scale requires extensive security capabilities necessary for physical protection and monitoring threats. </p>
<p>Beyond physically securing this infrastructure, the state also needs to have the ability to detect, deter and neutralise threat actors. These are classical counterintelligence prerogatives. Failure on this front makes the country vulnerable to destabilisation. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/download/file/fid/2442">stretched nature</a> of the country’s security agencies was laid bare during the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-57818215">violent riots</a> in July 2021. It is thus reasonable to question the capacity of the police, and other security agencies, to secure Eskom’s critical infrastructure and that of private power producers.</p>
<h2>Planning for security</h2>
<p>In our view, all planning to develop and diversify the national power grid and energy supply should include enough resources to protect them. This requires cooperative planning between Eskom and the South African security sector (both state and private).</p>
<p>The exact role of the South African National Defence Force in providing security for critical infrastructure remains unclear. The <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201503/act-102-1980.pdf">National Key Points Act 1980</a>, the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201409/a42-020.pdf">Defence Act 2002</a> and the <a href="https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/gcis_document/201911/4286628-11act8of2019criticalinfraprotectact.pdf">Critical Infrastructure Protection Act 8 of 2019</a> are not explicit on the issue. </p>
<p>The protection of critical infrastructure has been assigned to the South African Police Service, with the defence force <a href="https://static.pmg.org.za/170512review.pdf">supporting it</a>. Given that the defence budget has been shrinking annually, the military will probably not be able to sustain this.</p>
<p>With the private sector playing an increased role in the energy sector, South Africa needs to develop dedicated private security capacities to protect its critical infrastructure. At the very least, it should adopt a mixed public-private security model akin to the police service’s <a href="https://cvwa.org.za/community-police-forum/">community policing</a> concept. </p>
<p>The president’s energy vision envisages a much larger private industrial capacity. If left unsecured, such capacity would be just as vulnerable to sabotage as the current Eskom infrastructure is. It is time the country took stock of its security requirements in the same way it has started being serious about its energy vulnerabilities. </p>
<p>There’s also the question of whether the penalties prescribed by law are fit to deter sabotage. </p>
<h2>What needs to happen</h2>
<p>The hybrid nature of <a href="https://www.da.org.za/2021/11/eskom-infrastructure-sabotage-is-consistent-with-the-july-insurrectionists-modus-operandi">threats to the country’s infrastructure</a> can only be solved by an integrated solution. That requires, firstly, clarity about mandates as well as state security capabilities. </p>
<p>Secondly, security sector capacity needs to be developed alongside critical infrastructure. Thirdly, legislation needs to increase existing sanctions in terms of fines and imprisonment.</p>
<p>Lastly, public-private security partnerships must be established to bolster the security of the country’s electricity infrastructure.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/187889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann has received funding from the Australian Department of Defence for research regarding grey zone and information operations targeting Australia. Sascha Dov is a Research Fellow with The Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa, Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University. Sascha would like to thank Dr. Sasha-Lee Afrika for her insightful comments and assistance, particularly regarding the law.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dries Putter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The hybrid nature of threats to South Africa’s energy infrastructure can only be solved by an integrated solution, including severe sanctions that should include fines and imprisonment.Sascha-Dominik (Dov) Bachmann, Professor in Law and Co-Convener National Security Hub (University of Canberra) and Research Fellow (adjunct) - The Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa, Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University- NATO Fellow Asia-Pacific, University of CanberraDries Putter, Lecturer at the Faculty of Military Science / Affiliate Member, National Security Hub, University of Canberra and Researcher for Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa (SIGLA), Stellenbosch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1302982020-01-22T10:19:43Z2020-01-22T10:19:43ZSouth Africa’s energy crisis has triggered lots of ideas: why most are wrong<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/311154/original/file-20200121-117943-1tzi84q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Most proposed solutions don't address the systemic problems facing Eskom, in particular its parlous finances.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Since late last year South Africans have, once again, been subjected to power cuts by the power utility, Eskom. The need for what’s called loadshedding – planned power outages – led to the recent <a href="https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/national/2020-01-10-eskom-chair-jabu-mabuza-resigns-over-load-shedding-debacle/">resignation of Eskom’s chairperson</a> and a flurry of concern about the current and future reliability of electricity supply. It has also raised questions about the lack of progress in resolving <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-restructuring-south-africas-power-utility-wont-end-the-blackouts-114333">Eskom’s financial and operational crises</a> since Cyril Ramaphosa became the country’s president in early 2018. </p>
<p>Besides the importance of electricity supply for ordinary people and businesses, the deluge of opinions and proposed solutions reflects a variety of corporate and political vested interests. One grouping is pushing for the removal of public enterprises minister <a href="https://www.news24.com/Columnists/Pieter_du_Toit/pieter-du-toit-how-pravin-gordhan-became-the-principal-enemy-of-the-state-capture-project-20200114">Pravin Gordhan</a>. It argues that the recurrence of loadshedding demonstrates his failure to fix the power utility.</p>
<p>Another has blamed the country’s energy minister, <a href="https://m.fin24.com/Economy/Eskom/gwede-mantashe-accused-of-hindering-efforts-to-tackle-sas-electricity-crisis-20200108">Gwede Mantashe</a>. A line of argument against him is that loadshedding would have been avoided if he’d commissioned new renewable energy projects and allowed greater decentralised electricity generation by large businesses.</p>
<p>These claims contain significant weaknesses. And most solutions that stem from them have a fatal flaw: they don’t address the systemic problems facing Eskom, in particular its parlous finances.</p>
<p>The basic objective of charting a way forward for Eskom must be to ensure a reliable and affordable supply of electricity for households and firms. That must be done in a way that does not undermine the stability of public finances. And any costs must be spread as equitably as possible across individuals and businesses, minimising negative effects on other important social and economic objectives. </p>
<p>Finally, decisions about energy must contribute to reducing future carbon emissions, in line with international treaties. This needs to be done because it’s essential for the planet, and because international regulation will make it increasingly expensive not to do so.</p>
<h2>Like an unreliable car bought with debt</h2>
<p>Ending the power cuts has to begin with understanding Eskom’s precarious financial position.</p>
<p>Imagine the following domestic analogy: you have bought a car with a bank loan and it starts breaking down regularly. But the dealership you bought it from has closed so it cannot be returned. You ask someone for advice and they tell you that the obvious solution is to buy a new smart car that uses less fuel and is more environmentally friendly. But you are still paying off the current car. So unless you have lots of extra money, or can borrow more from the bank, this “solution” is unhelpful.</p>
<p>This is where Eskom finds itself. It borrowed hundreds of billions of rand to build power stations that are <a href="https://www.fin24.com/Budget/how-medupi-and-kusile-are-sinking-south-africa-20191009">turning out to be unreliable</a>. And people who argue that the solution is simply to commission new renewable energy projects are like the person who annoyingly says “just buy a new car”. Since Eskom is almost bankrupt and government’s finances are under huge pressure, “just buying new power” is not realistic.</p>
<p>But it is a vicious cycle: an unreliable car can harm a person’s employment and income prospects, making it harder for them to afford repairs or an alternative. Similarly, unreliable electricity harms economic activity and therefore reduces the electricity revenue to Eskom and the tax revenue to the state. </p>
<p>Eskom has tried to avoid – or reduce – power cuts caused by failures of its main power plants by using <a href="https://city-press.news24.com/Business/eskom-blows-through-its-diesel-budget-20200120">expensive options like gas turbines</a>. This is is a bit like taking a taxi when you are paying interest on a bank-financed car that you aren’t using.</p>
<p>What about the idea that electricity users should be allowed to generate their own power? Well, that’s a bit like saying that to reduce the impact of your car breakdowns on your employer you let them hire and pay someone else to do part of your job. That’s great for your employer but not so great for you because it cuts your income – making it harder to service the vehicle debt or pay for repairs and alternatives. </p>
<p>Decentralised power supply will almost certainly be part of future energy systems. But without solving the systemic issues facing Eskom it could, in the short term, contribute to the power utility’s death spiral. Encouraging electricity users to move to alternatives may take pressure off Eskom’s operations, but it will have disastrous financial implications. </p>
<p>Big firms can afford to do this, and independent power companies will profit, but the resultant costs will fall on everyone else because Eskom has effectively borrowed on behalf of the country.</p>
<p>The car analogy should make it clear that “just procuring more power” could make Eskom’s financial crisis much worse. Wind and solar power have a role but also particular limitations that are often given inadequate attention. They cannot be relied on to produce electricity whenever it is needed. </p>
<p>If renewable energy producers cannot guarantee supply when it is needed, then the cost of measures to compensate for that must be recognised as a cost of renewable energy. </p>
<p>The renewables lobby, like the nuclear and coal lobbies in the past, offers apparently easy solutions to South Africa’s crisis. But it distracts attention from these basic principles – and many key questions that remain unanswered.</p>
<h2>Unanswered questions</h2>
<p>South Africans need to know what maintenance is needed to get existing power stations operating reliably enough to avoid long-term loadshedding. In the short term the country’s best option may be for predictable power cuts while the maintenance backlog is addressed. </p>
<p>Gas turbines can help to avoid loadshedding, reducing the impact on the economy, but they aggravate Eskom’s financial problems. How can this tradeoff be optimised? Would new renewable energy really create space for the maintenance that is needed? And how are these decisions currently being made in the national interest?</p>
<p>Eskom has effectively borrowed on behalf of citizens, so any financial gaps will have to be plugged through electricity tariffs, higher taxes or painful cuts to public spending. </p>
<p>The fact that there is still lack of clarity on such fundamental issues after almost two years under a Ramaphosa presidency suggests that those appointed to advise on Eskom and turn it around have failed. That is why it is not helpful to focus on politicians. </p>
<p>The country is running out of time and money; it cannot afford another round of misguided advice and ineffective efforts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130298/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mike Muller advises a range of government and other organisations, including Hidroelectrica Cahora Bassa and the Climate Bonds Initiative, on water, energy and climate issues and has received research funding from the Water Research Commission and the African Development Bank.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Seán Mfundza Muller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The deluge of opinions and proposed solutions to South Africa’s energy crisis reflects corporate and political interests.Seán Mfundza Muller, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Research Associate at the Public and Environmental Economics Research Centre (PEERC) and Visiting Fellow at the Johannesburg Institute of Advanced Study (JIAS), University of JohannesburgMike Muller, Visiting Adjunct Professor, University of the WitwatersrandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/643792016-08-25T14:28:44Z2016-08-25T14:28:44ZIt’s time South Africa learnt from others and overhauled its power sector<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135309/original/image-20160824-30259-g1o7o0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Load shedding has stopped in South Africa over the last year but that doesn't mean the country's power problems are all gone.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>South Africa has not had load shedding for nearly a <a href="http://www.timeslive.co.za/sundaytimes/stnews/2016/05/06/No-more-load-shedding-for-South-Africa---Zuma">year</a>. This is a welcome development after years of power cuts that constrained economic growth. Electricity consumption has more or less flattened out, giving the national utility, Eskom, more space to catch up on maintenance and meet demand. </p>
<p>But all is not well in the country’s electricity sector.</p>
<p>There are challenges around rising costs and <a href="https://twitter.com/AntonEberhard/status/766130081488068608">electricity tariffs</a>. Further improvements are needed in technical and commercial performance. And Eskom has to raise sufficient finance to complete its investment programme. This comes at a time when National Treasury has no fiscal space for further equity injections.</p>
<p>On top of this, municipal electricity distributors are not investing adequately in maintenance and service delivery. This could have catastrophic consequences for security and reliability of supply in the future.</p>
<p>The current period provides an opportune time to consider the electricity sector’s medium and long-term future. Is the sector’s current structure fit-for-purpose? Does it provide a sustainable platform to achieve national goals and objectives?</p>
<p>What the economy and people want from the sector is instinctively and practically clear: access to electricity that is adequate, reliable and affordable as well as competitive prices in the case of business. And this should be accomplished within the bounds of environmental sustainability and transparent governance frameworks to attract enough investment to meet current and future needs.</p>
<p>At the moment it is not clear that the current structure can achieve these goals. This suggests that alternatives should be considered.</p>
<h2>The case for restructuring</h2>
<p>The past three decades have seen fundamental reform and restructuring of electricity sectors in countries <a href="http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.eg.20.110195.001003">all over the world</a>. The old model, of a vertically integrated, state-owned monopoly, has been challenged. <a href="http://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/power-sector">New models have been explored</a> and adopted that involve different levels of integration or unbundling, competition and public or private ownership. </p>
<p>It is striking that South Africa’s electricity sector has been largely immune to these global developments. In recent years there’s been private investment in a number of renewable energy independent power projects. But Eskom is now <a href="http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/energy/2016/07/21/eskom-cuts-off-private-power">arguing</a> that it doesn’t need them.</p>
<p>The question of private or public should be unshackled from ideological predispositions. Debates around private participation in the electricity sector are often contentious. This includes whether privately owned entities <a href="http://www.biznews.com/sa-investing/2016/02/05/fixing-eskom-gordhan-v-molefe-as-privatisation-option-gets-public-airing/">are more efficient than public utilities</a>. The country needs to consider restructuring proposals only in terms of whether they will support national economic and social development goals.</p>
<p>Choices range from a fully state-owned electricity sector to one which is fully privatised, or somewhere in between. </p>
<p>In fact, South Africa already has a hybrid system. State-owned Eskom and local government distributors are complemented by private independent power projects. Eskom has been unable to fund all the country’s electricity needs. <a href="http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/print-version/ratings-industrialisation-and-investment-at-stake-as-eskom-moves-against-ipps-2016-08-05>">Over the past four years</a> independent power projects have mobilised close to R200bn in private investment.</p>
<p>It would seem sensible to retain a mixed electricity market – especially in power generation so that the country can secure adequate, timely and cost-effective capital investment.</p>
<p>But if the state were to countenance privatisation, it would be a mistake to allow private investment in an unstructured, vertically-integrated dominant Eskom. This would repeat the mistakes made in the privatisation of <a href="http://www.telkom.co.za/today/">Telkom</a>. There the strategic private partner used Telkom’s monopoly to frustrate the entry and growth of new private players in the sector. It also maintained high prices.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135311/original/image-20160824-30249-1r15jm7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">State-owned Eskom and local government distributors are complemented by private independent power projects.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reuters</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Building competition into power generation</h2>
<p>Globally many years of experience show that effective competition is possible in power generation (and energy sales), while electricity transmission and distribution mostly remain natural monopolies.</p>
<p>Independent power projects in South Africa already compete for the right to build, own and operate power stations based on long-term contracts and competitive prices. It makes sense to extend this kind of competition.</p>
<p>It is possible for power stations also to compete in a power exchange. This typically happens in a day-ahead market where independent power projects (and perhaps also Eskom) compete to sell their power for each period in the day. Such wholesale power markets have potential price benefits. But they are not always effective in attracting new investment. A much more effective way of attracting investment is through competitive tenders for long-term contracts.</p>
<p>Competition can also be encouraged by giving customers the right to choose their supplier. But international experience <a href="http://emrf.net/uploads/3/4/4/6/34469793/retail_choice_in_electricity_for_emrf_final.pdf">shows</a> that while the benefits are potentially significant for large customers, they’re relatively modest for small users.</p>
<p>A modest amendment to the Electricity Regulation Act could make explicit the possibility of direct agreements between independent power projects and qualifying customers. This would spur innovation and investment, and reduce costs.</p>
<p>Traditionally, power systems have been vertically integrated: power generation, transmission and distribution functions have been combined in one company. But with generation potentially open to competition, many countries have decided to separate generation from the natural monopoly wire components.</p>
<p>The challenge of the current system is that it can discourage investment in independent power projects. It can also make inter-connection with the grid difficult or expensive and can constrain dispatch. This is because Eskom controls power purchases from independent power projects, as well as access to transmission, but also builds and operates its own power stations. </p>
<p>An alternative would be to spin off state-owned generation into a separate Genco. This would leave Eskom to control only transmission (and the system operator and buying functions). Eskom could then – on a neutral, transparent and fair basis – contract either State Gencos or independent power projects, creating a platform for private investment.</p>
<h2>Overcoming state paralysis</h2>
<p>Despite ample evidence of best practice South Africa seems to be in a state of paralysis.</p>
<p>The difficulty in restructuring state-owned utilities when they are in crisis is that governments are careful not to propose interventions that might further destabilise them. But when the crisis recedes so does the political imperative for restructuring. When Eskom was load shedding the focus was on immediate measures to keep the lights on and on improving its financial viability. It was more difficult to agree on far-reaching reforms that might prevent similar crises in the future.</p>
<p>It requires vision, leadership and commitment to restructure state owned enterprises. Any such process must remove impediments to investment and achieve efficiency improvements that facilitate economic growth and development.</p>
<p>There is an alternative to Eskom’s leadership defending an old, vertically-integrated, monopolistic electricity industry model – which international experience shows is moribund. Would the company not want its legacy to be distinguished by a reforming zeal that sets South Africa on a different path? This would embrace a model for attracting new investment and securing power supply while containing costs and prices, and promoting environmental sustainability.</p>
<p>Perhaps South Africa’s fiscal position will have to deteriorate further before the country accepts that it can no longer fully fund its public utilities and that a greater openness to private investment is inevitable. It has already <a href="http://citizen.co.za/396604/r60b-of-eskom-loan-to-be-converted-to-equity/">pumped R83bn into Eskom since 2008</a>. </p>
<p>It would be better to start that restructuring and reform process now before there is another crisis.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anton Eberhard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>It would be better to proactively restructure South Africa’s electricity sector to spur innovation and investment and reduce costs before another crisis hits and further derails the economy.Anton Eberhard, Professor at the Graduate School of Business, University of Cape TownLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/546302016-02-12T04:40:45Z2016-02-12T04:40:45ZNuclear power in South Africa: ‘only on a scale and pace the country can afford’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/111228/original/image-20160211-29202-gzb064.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">South Africa hasn't veered away from nuclear as an energy option, but President Jacob Zuma signalled a slowdown.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>South African President Jacob Zuma spoke about energy in his State of the Nation address. The Conversation’s Energy and Environment editor, Ozayr Patel, and Voice of Wits producer, Elna Schutz, interviewed Professor of Physics Hartmut Winkler to get in-depth comment on what Zuma had to say.</em></p>
<p><em>You can listen to the interview and read our transcript below.</em></p>
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<p><strong>Was the discussion of energy more urgent and pronounced last year?</strong></p>
<p>Yes, it was. This was because of the load-shedding crisis in South Africa at the time. Noticeable this year was that energy was not as high on the list of priorities as last year. When he reported back on what had been achieved in the last 12 months and presented his nine-point plan, energy only received a relatively scarce mention, whereas last year it had been the number-one item on the plan.</p>
<p><strong>Does the affirmation of independent power producers indicate a change?</strong> </p>
<p>Not necessarily. But it was a statement underscoring the success of the program itself, especially in getting power stations up and running very quickly. What he mentioned about coal and gas produced stations was nothing really new but merely affirmed that this is a route that the government wants to continue on in the immediate future.</p>
<p><strong>Have independent power producers and renewable energy improved the country’s energy problems?</strong></p>
<p>Yes. It is one of the reasons why we have not had as much load shedding this year – because comparatively small but still sufficient, medium-sized power stations did come into operation in the past year. </p>
<p><strong>The president made the following statement: “We will only pursue nuclear on a scale and pace the country can afford”. Is this an indication of change in the country’s nuclear strategy?</strong></p>
<p>Officially, he still affirmed the country’s commitment to try and build nuclear power stations producing 9600 megawatts of power in the next decade. However, there was an important statement that the government would “test the market” to ascertain the true cost of building such power stations.</p>
<p>There was also the important remark that it would only pursue such construction on “a scale and at a pace that the country can afford”. Effectively right now the country cannot afford to build all the planned nuclear power stations in the next decade. This comment seems to indicate that while not veering away from its commitment to nuclear, at least it seems to realise that this can only be effected much more slowly than envisaged. </p>
<p>There is also an increased awareness of the potentially prohibitive cost of such developments. This is welcome.</p>
<p><strong>There has been no load shedding since August last year. Is this a result of better management of coal resources or a combination of that and renewable input?</strong></p>
<p>I think it is a mixture of both. Certainly the improved management and operations at the state-owned energy utility Eskom have eased the crisis. At the same time energy use is lower than envisaged a few years ago, partly because of the slump in mining and in the economy in general. That has indirectly helped Eskom maintain power supplies.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54630/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from NRF.</span></em></p>President Zuma indicated a welcome slowdown in the South African government’s stated intention to invest in nuclear power plants.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/505372016-01-05T04:12:58Z2016-01-05T04:12:58ZExplainer: South Africa’s developing solar energy landscape<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106775/original/image-20151221-27875-yx9b5w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Herbert solar plant in the Northern Cape, South Africa. The panels face the sun squarely and constantly.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://newsroom.sunpower.com/2014-06-02-SunPower-AE-AMD-Renewable-Energy-Completes-Two-Solar-Projects-in-South-Africa">SunPower Corp</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Until a few years ago solar panels were a rare sight in South Africa, largely limited to the roofs of a few affluent households. This is changing rapidly, driven by three factors: the worldwide drive towards <a href="http://ecowatch.com/2015/11/12/cop21-renewables-growth/">renewable energy</a>, a <a href="http://mg.co.za/article/2015-08-26-economic-effects-of-load-shedding-hit-home">highly strained</a> local electricity supply, and a steady drop in <a href="http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/solar-energy-be-cheapest-power-source-10-years-says-report-1489228">solar panel prices</a>.</p>
<p>Taking the lead from other <a href="http://www.triplepundit.com/2015/08/germany-became-solar-superpower/">countries</a>, South Africa committed to an energy generation infrastructure development plan for 2010 to 2030, known as the <a href="http://www.energy.gov.za/files/irp_frame.html">Integrated Resource Plan</a>.</p>
<p>Under the plan the country aims to achieve 9600 MW of solar power capacity by 2030. When the plan was drawn up in 2010, solar was limited to a few isolated panels on domestic rooftops, and until recently contributed nothing to the national power grid operated by the state-owned utility Eskom.</p>
<p>But that is changing. </p>
<p>Solar plants are being developed, most by the private sector under a specially designed <a href="http://www.ipprenewables.co.za/">procurement program</a>. Eskom is also constructing <a href="http://www.eskom.co.za/AboutElectricity/RenewableEnergy/ConcentratingSolarPower/Pages/Concentrating_Solar_Power_CSP.aspx">some facilities</a>.</p>
<h2>Much easier, much cheaper</h2>
<p>In the last ten years the defining development in solar energy has been the sharp drop in the prices of photovoltaic panels. There has also been modest technological advances in other solar technologies and in power storage.</p>
<p><a href="http://pveducation.org/">Photovoltaics</a>, or PV, is a process in which energy from light is absorbed in materials and then directly transferred to electrons, resulting in an electric current. Research advances over the years, especially those involving easily available silicon-based materials, have made this an increasingly cheap solar technology. It is also now the most popular.</p>
<p>The simplest PV configuration has immobile solar panels, slightly tilted relative to the ground and facing northwards towards the midday sun. An example is the <a href="http://droogfonteinsolar.co.za/">Droogfontein Plant</a> near Kimberley in South Africa’s Northern Cape province. Panel rows are placed in a way to ensure that each panel does not shade the one behind it.</p>
<p>A more sophisticated design, found at the <a href="http://www.acciona-energia.com/activity_areas/solar_photovoltaic/installations/planta-sishen/planta-sishen.aspx?desde=">Sishen Plant</a> near Kathu, also in the Northern Cape, uses a single axis-tracking technology to counteract efficiency losses. Each row of panels steadily rotates along a north-south axis with the sun until it reaches a point where it starts to shade the row behind it.</p>
<p>In two-axis tracking systems, panels constantly face the sun squarely. The <a href="http://global.sunpower.com/solar-case-studies/r1-herbert-greefspan-south-africa/">Herbert and Greefspan</a> plants near Douglas in the Northern Cape use this technology. The cost of the additional tracking motors is compensated for by the capture of more sunlight.</p>
<h2>Concentrated solar power</h2>
<p>Concentrated solar power, or <a href="http://www.solarpaces.org/csp-technology">CSP</a>, technologies are based on the redirecting of sunlight, normally by mirrors, to a common focal point, which as a result becomes extremely hot. </p>
<p>This heat is transferred by fluids to a nearby electricity generating unit, where water is boiled to drive a turbine. This is similar to the process in coal power stations where coal is burnt to generate heat. </p>
<p>CSP technologies include the solar tower, where a multitude of mirrors continually realign themselves to reflect sunlight to a hot spot on the tower. <a href="http://www.csp-world.com/news/20140402/001338/assembly-solar-receiver-begins-khi-solar-one-csp-plant-south-africa">Khi Solar 1</a>, under construction near Upington, is a representative of this class.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mtholyoke.edu/%7Ewang30y/csp/PTPP.html">parabolic trough</a> technology requires long rows of concave mirrors focusing sunlight onto pipes running just above. The already operational <a href="http://www.power-technology.com/projects/kaxu-solar-one-northern-cape/">KaXu</a> near Pofadder uses this technology, and similar plants in Bokpoort and XiNa will be added soon. A related technology, <a href="http://energy.gov/eere/energybasics/articles/linear-concentrator-system-basics-concentrating-solar-power">linear Fresnel</a>, appears in some of the proposals for future South African solar plants.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106778/original/image-20151221-27890-4w40cv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106778/original/image-20151221-27890-4w40cv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/106778/original/image-20151221-27890-4w40cv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106778/original/image-20151221-27890-4w40cv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106778/original/image-20151221-27890-4w40cv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106778/original/image-20151221-27890-4w40cv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106778/original/image-20151221-27890-4w40cv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/106778/original/image-20151221-27890-4w40cv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The KaXu plant is using parabolic trough technology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.google.co.za/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiA2emC4ezJAhVBTBoKHTCUCXwQjB0IBg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.power-technology.com%2Fprojects%2Fkaxu-solar-one-northern-cape%2F&psig=AFQjCNF_oBd-kzpP11lcYI7WMOaw4TcVlQ&ust=1450780575530040">Power technology</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finally, there is a hybrid technology, <a href="http://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/solar/technologies/pv_concentration.php">concentrated photovoltaics</a>, where the collecting focal point contains a PV receiver rather than a heatable fluid. This design was used for the <a href="http://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/concentrated-solar-plant-to-deliver-22mw-1.1610703#.Vkyj9HsaLcs">Touws River</a> solar plant in the Western Cape province.</p>
<h2>The pros and hidden cons</h2>
<p>Solar energy almost completely avoids emissions, uses a limitless energy resource and is becoming increasingly inexpensive. As such it is promoted as a major clean contributor to solving the world’s energy crisis.</p>
<p>At the same time, it is important to recognise the shortcomings of solar power. Solar energy generation is only possible during daytime and in reasonably cloud-free conditions. In South Africa that corresponds to typically eight hours per day <a href="http://home.intekom.com/teltec/sunshine.htm">on average</a>. </p>
<p>For PV, <a href="http://www.suninfinite.com/solarTracking.aspx">the poorer the alignment</a> between the sun and a solar panel, the worse the efficiency. Dust build-up on a panel further blocks sunlight, and photovoltaic panels don’t function properly if even only a fraction of the surface is <a href="http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdrom/modules/shading">shaded</a>.</p>
<p>The quoted power produced by a panel or a solar plant is mostly obtained under near-optimal solar exposure. And the daily average power generated is much lower. </p>
<p>Energy storage also remains a challenge. Despite this, solar energy remains an attractive option.</p>
<p>All the completed solar power plants are part of South Africa’s electricity supply as they are fully linked to Eskom’s grid. Solar power already feeds more than <a href="http://energy.org.za/knowledge-tools/project-database">1 GW</a> onto the grid on a sunny day. This is a significant amount, and it makes it considerably less likely that the country will suffer power cuts in 2016.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50537/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hartmut Winkler receives funding from NRF. </span></em></p>Solar power is a key piece of South Africa’s energy puzzle.Hartmut Winkler, Professor of Physics, University of JohannesburgLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.