tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/maasai-mara-23034/articlesMaasai Mara – The Conversation2021-06-08T14:19:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1598402021-06-08T14:19:21Z2021-06-08T14:19:21ZHow elephants raid crops in Kenya’s Masai Mara has changed. Why it matters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397588/original/file-20210428-13-h651gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">African elephant</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/MOIZ HUSEIN STORYTELLER</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Masai Mara ecosystem, in south-western Kenya, is home to an important elephant population of <a href="http://www.kws.go.ke/content/aerial-total-count-elephants-buffaloes-and-giraffes-masai-mara-ecosytem-may-2017-0">about 2,500 individuals</a>. </p>
<p>Elephants need <a href="https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/SSC-OP-060_A.pdf">large amounts of space</a> to roam in search of food and water. Because of this, they often move outside the boundaries of protected areas – such as the Masai Mara National Reserve and <a href="https://maraconservancies.org/">wildlife conservancies</a> – into areas where people live. </p>
<p>These people are impacted by elephants that eat and destroy farm crops. Sometimes their lives are threatened. This often <a href="https://www.kbc.co.ke/kajiado-residents-decry-elephants-invasion-in-their-farms/">creates</a> fear and anger towards this species and sometimes leads to elephants being killed in retaliation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397578/original/file-20210428-17-1tkhubd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/397578/original/file-20210428-17-1tkhubd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397578/original/file-20210428-17-1tkhubd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397578/original/file-20210428-17-1tkhubd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397578/original/file-20210428-17-1tkhubd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397578/original/file-20210428-17-1tkhubd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/397578/original/file-20210428-17-1tkhubd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=564&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An elephant receives treatment after being wounded by people in the Masai Mara, Kenya.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marion Smith</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>These negative interactions – termed human-elephant conflict – pose a huge threat to populations of this endangered species. </p>
<p>We carried out <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S000632072030999X?via%3Dihub">research</a> on trends of elephant crop-raiding on the western border of the Masai Mara National Reserve. The human population in this region has grown quickly, partly through new people arriving to farm, leading to rapidly changing land-use and high human-wildlife conflict.</p>
<p>We wanted to understand whether, over 15 years, patterns of elephant crop raiding had changed.</p>
<p>We found that there were big changes. Crop raiding was happening more often, in different places and at different times of the year. In addition, the number of elephants killed in retaliation had also increased. </p>
<p>We believe that these patterns signal that elephants in the area are being affected by the expansion of farmland. This creates a cycle in which elephants then negatively affect people.</p>
<p>Our findings are a classic example of what is occurring across much of Africa: rapid habitat loss and increasing conflict. Thus, there is a pressing need to monitor and understand changes. This would help to inform mitigation strategies and move from conflict to coexistence.</p>
<h2>More human-elephant conflict</h2>
<p>We <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S000632072030999X?via%3Dihub">collected data on</a> incidents of human-elephant conflict between 2014 and 2015. When an elephant ate someone’s crops, broke a fence, damaged property or caused human injury or death, we recorded it. We also checked the number of elephants involved in each incident by measuring footprints and dung. </p>
<p>We then compared this data with a similar <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1046/j.1365-2664.2003.00828.x">study</a> from 1999 to 2000. This provided us with insights into long term trends. </p>
<p>There were important changes in elephant crop raiding patterns since 2000. The number of crop-raiding incidents increased by 49%, but crop damage per incident dropped by 83%. </p>
<p>In addition, the elephants were raiding closer to the protected area and raids were unpredictable. They happened all year round rather than seasonally, when crops are ripe. </p>
<h2>Tracking incidents</h2>
<p>We have several theories for this behaviour.</p>
<p>Elephants could be carrying out more raids because <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0163249">there is less</a> for them to eat in the protected area. This is due to people increasingly breaking the rules by taking their livestock to graze inside the national park.</p>
<p>There could be less crop damage because farmers are better at scaring elephants away. They do this using <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/oryx/article/assessing-farmbased-measures-for-mitigating-humanelephant-conflict-in-transmara-district-kenya/18B2CD410EFFA3353DFF228F30DB1D1C">well-established techniques</a>, such as making noise, using flash lights, fire crackers and fire.</p>
<p>Elephants could be raiding closer to protected areas because of changes in land cover. There’s <a href="https://maraelephantproject.org/charcoal-burning-in-the-mara/">less forest</a> (due to illegal charcoal clearing) and more farmland. This makes it harder for elephants to hide. </p>
<h2>Widespread conflict</h2>
<p>While the total amount of crop damage has fallen, there are more farms and more people being impacted. Between 1999 and 2000 there were 263 crop-raiding incidents per year. This increased to 392 incidents between 2014 and 2015. Crop-raiding also happens for longer periods during the year. </p>
<p>This could explain why the illegal killing of elephants due to conflict in our study area <a href="https://cites.org/eng/prog/mike/index.php/portal">increased</a> during the study period, nearly doubling from five elephants in 1999/2000 to nine in 2014/2015.</p>
<p>There are a few things that are needed to address the changes in crop-raiding patterns and, in turn, reduce human-elephant conflict.</p>
<p>Conservation management must be improved to protect the elephants’ food base and reduce disturbances within protected areas. For instance, authorities must do more to address the many cattle that illegally graze in the reserve. The number of livestock within the Masai Mara has increased more than tenfold in the last few decades, <a href="https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1469-7998.2011.00818.x">from around 2,000 in the 1970s to 24,000 in the 2000s</a>. </p>
<p>Communities around the Masai Mara National Reserve must see the benefits of protecting and conserving wildlife. There’s a legal requirement that residents of the area <a href="http://kenyalaw.org/kl/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/Acts/WildlifeConservationandManagementActCap376_2_.pdf">should receive</a> a percentage of the park revenue each year from the county government. At the moment, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kenya-unrest-idUSKBN0KZ1OR20150126#qf7FqKF0gzMxjeCO.97">almost none</a> of this money goes into the pockets of local communities. This helps explain why the rules about cattle grazing are so widely broken.</p>
<p>In addition, policymakers and conservation practitioners must work with local communities on the frontline to help inform mitigation strategies and build tolerance towards wildlife.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159840/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Crop raiding is happening more often in the Masai Mara, in different places and at different times of the year.Lydia Tiller, Research and Science Manager at Save the Elephants and Associate, Durrell Institute for Conservation and Ecology, University of KentBob Smith, Director, Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1409452020-06-28T08:22:48Z2020-06-28T08:22:48ZGetting closer to a much better count of Africa’s lions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342398/original/file-20200617-94086-8xcq8m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A young lion cub rests in the branches of a large euphorbia tree in Uganda's Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alex Braczkowski</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>African lions are one of the world’s favourite animals. But their numbers have been shrinking over the past century, especially over the past 30 years. Some scientists estimate that their numbers have <a href="https://www.radiotimes.com/news/2019-07-29/since-the-lion-king-was-released-in-1994-the-lion-population-has-halved-but-disney-has-a-plan/">halved</a> since 1994.</p>
<p>Estimates of the total population of Africa’s king of beasts vary, but a <a href="https://www.cms.int/sites/default/files/document/cms-cites_aci1_inf.11_lion-guidelines_e.pdf">recent CITES report</a> suggested that only about 25,000 remain in the wild, across 102 populations in Africa. But the numbers in this report aren’t particularly reliable. Most used traditional survey approaches – like counts of lion footprints, audio lure surveys or expert opinion - and many were not peer-reviewed.</p>
<p>These traditional methods of counting lions produce highly uncertain estimates. A count of lions using their footprints may give you an estimate of, say, 50 lions in an area. But the <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/cobi.12878">uncertainty</a> around this estimate could be between 15 and 100 individuals. This large uncertainty makes tracking how lion populations change from year to year nearly impossible. Our <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2020.00138/full">recent review</a> shows that the majority of methods used to count African and Asiatic lions use these less robust methods.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343021/original/file-20200620-43196-10ttnis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343021/original/file-20200620-43196-10ttnis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343021/original/file-20200620-43196-10ttnis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343021/original/file-20200620-43196-10ttnis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343021/original/file-20200620-43196-10ttnis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343021/original/file-20200620-43196-10ttnis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343021/original/file-20200620-43196-10ttnis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343021/original/file-20200620-43196-10ttnis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Two young lions rest in the branches of a Euphorbia tree on the Kasenyi Plains of Queen Elizabeth National Park.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alex Braczkowski</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Making sure that lion numbers are accurate and reasonably precise is key for the species’ conservation. Estimates of lion numbers underpin their classification as <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/15951/115130419">‘vulnerable’</a>. They also form the backbone for controversial management practices like the setting of trophy hunting quotas.</p>
<p>The good news is that better ways of counting lions are being developed. So called spatially explicit capture-recapture methods are useful for conservation because they tell us not only how many animals live in an area, but how they move in a landscape, what their sex ratios are and even where their highest numbers are <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?hl=en&lr=&id=RO08-S-amZMC&oi=fnd&pg=PR1&dq=royle+spatial+capture&ots=e8zuMlFB2C&sig=_4g37PYvC-fD17PCVSOVT4AfAJM#v=onepage&q=royle%20spatial%20capture&f=false">located</a>. This method has been used to count tigers, leopards, jaguars and mountain lions for over a decade but it is only now becoming popular for lions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343019/original/file-20200620-43191-brshut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343019/original/file-20200620-43191-brshut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343019/original/file-20200620-43191-brshut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343019/original/file-20200620-43191-brshut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343019/original/file-20200620-43191-brshut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=385&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343019/original/file-20200620-43191-brshut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343019/original/file-20200620-43191-brshut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343019/original/file-20200620-43191-brshut.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A review of 169 peer-reviewed scientific articles (Web of Science and Google Scholar) showed many lion abundance and density estimates rely on traditional methods like audio lure or track surveys.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Spatially explicit capture-recapture methods use a mathematical model which incorporates the individual identity of animals (usually from photographs of natural body markings, spot patterns or even whisker spots) and their location in a landscape. By identifying and “marking” individuals over a period of time an estimate can be made of the total number of animals that live in an area. </p>
<h2>Better methods from East Africa</h2>
<p>This method was first used to count lions in a 2014 <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/cobi.12878">study</a> in Kenya’s Maasai Mara. The lead authors capitalised on a <a href="https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1970.tb03093.x">historic way</a> of identifying lions: their whiskers. Every lion in the wild has a unique whisker spot pattern, very much like a human fingerprint. </p>
<p>Recently, some of us applied this technique in a <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2688-8319.12015">count</a> of African lions in southwestern Uganda, in a region known as the <a href="https://en.unesco.org/biosphere/africa/queen-elizabeth">Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area</a>. These lions are interesting because they have a rare culture of tree-climbing. This means they have great local tourism value as each lion raises about USD$ 14 000 annually in park fees. </p>
<p>The status of lions in Uganda was not previously very well understood. After a wave of intense poaching during the unstable Idi Amin and Milton Obote regimes - 1971 to 1985 - during which time wildlife numbers <a href="https://books.google.co.za/books?hl=en&lr=&id=uNlBMl46IlUC&oi=fnd&pg=PR6&dq=Rangelands:+A+Resource+Under+Siege&ots=JHeUtkagFy&sig=0ey1VZpf5QwUkZC1VzL0yzZfEpc#v=onepage&q=Rangelands%3A%20A%20Resource%20Under%20Siege&f=false">plummeted</a>. </p>
<p>But recent aerial surveys and radio-collaring studies suggested that lion prey numbers were recovering. A radio collaring <a href="https://bioone.org/journals/journal-of-east-african-natural-history/volume-104/issue-1-2/028.104.0115/Home-Ranges-of-Ishasha-Lions--Size-and-Location-in/10.2982/028.104.0115.short">study</a> of lions from 2006 to 2010 also showed that lion home range sizes were small, and because range size is predicted by abundant prey, this suggested lions here were in good health.</p>
<h2>Uganda’s lions in peril</h2>
<p>From October 2017 to February 2018 we drove more than 8 000 km in 93 days searching for lions in the Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area. We obtained 165 lion detections. Using individual identifications from photos, we calculated that on average one could expect to find about 3 individual lions per 100 square kilometres, with a total of 71 lions in the entire area. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343017/original/file-20200620-43229-1vbet6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343017/original/file-20200620-43229-1vbet6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343017/original/file-20200620-43229-1vbet6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343017/original/file-20200620-43229-1vbet6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343017/original/file-20200620-43229-1vbet6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343017/original/file-20200620-43229-1vbet6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343017/original/file-20200620-43229-1vbet6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343017/original/file-20200620-43229-1vbet6s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scientists during a census of the lions in Uganda’s Queen Elizabeth Conservation Area.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Steve Winter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We used the spatially explicit capture-recapture method to assess how lion movements had changed from the home range study performed a decade earlier. Worryingly, <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2688-8319.12015">our results</a> showed that lions had increased their ranges significantly in just 10 years - above 400% for male lions and above 100% for females. </p>
<p>Also, there was only one female for every male in the wild. This is very different to other African lion populations which have a much <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/brv.12152">higher proportion</a> of females relative to males (about two females for every male). </p>
<h2>Next steps</h2>
<p>From the standpoint of lion conservation and recovery these results are concerning. But, on a positive note, this finding has provided a timely alert. And we recommend the use of this relatively novel survey methodology to assess other lion populations across Africa.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343023/original/file-20200620-43196-1r0h5pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343023/original/file-20200620-43196-1r0h5pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/343023/original/file-20200620-43196-1r0h5pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343023/original/file-20200620-43196-1r0h5pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343023/original/file-20200620-43196-1r0h5pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343023/original/file-20200620-43196-1r0h5pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343023/original/file-20200620-43196-1r0h5pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/343023/original/file-20200620-43196-1r0h5pr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Four young lion cubs trigger a camera trap set on a waterbuck kill on Queen Elizabeth’s Kasenyi Plains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Alex Braczkowski</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>More recently, in 2020, another <a href="https://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/csp2.217">rigorous study</a> at Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya, applied this approach and found that this method estimated lion population size to be about a sixth of what was previously thought. The Kenya Wildlife Service, in collaboration with local partners is now using spatially explicit capture-recapture in an ambitious nationwide survey of lions and other large carnivores at all potential strongholds across Kenya.</p>
<p>More broadly, these results further bolster the view that by relying on ad hoc, indirect methods to detect lion population trends, we may end up with misleading answers and fail to direct scarce conservation resources optimally. </p>
<p>We argue that all stakeholders involved in lion conservation across Africa and Asia should use rigorous survey methods to keep track of lion populations. These results should then form appropriate baselines for continent-wide reports on lion abundance, and help inform strategies aimed at their recovery.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140945/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Richard Braczkowski received funding from National Geographic Society, the Scientific Exploration Society, a Rufford Small grant, the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences and the Siemiatkowski Foundation for the lion census work. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Duan Biggs receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Luc Hoffmann Institute</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Martine Maron receives funding from The Australian Research Council, the Science for Nature and People Partnership, and the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program. She is President of BirdLife Australia, a Governor of WWF-Australia, and a member of the Alliance of Leading Environmental Researchers and Thinkers and the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James R. Allan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New science shows that estimates of the African lion numbers are underpinned by weak methods. But several new studies from Kenya and Uganda show that lions can be counted robustly.Alexander Richard Braczkowski, Research Associate, Griffith UniversityDuan Biggs, Senior Research Fellow Social-Ecological Systems & Resilience, Griffith UniversityJames R. Allan, Postdoctoral research fellow, University of AmsterdamMartine Maron, ARC Future Fellow and Professor of Environmental Management, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1143892019-04-01T08:47:53Z2019-04-01T08:47:53ZPeople are taking a huge toll on the plains of the Serengeti-Mara<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/266493/original/file-20190329-70996-4ixkul.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Serengeti-Mara ecosystem is home to the famous wildebeest migration</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Susan Schmitz/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 40,000 sq km Serengeti-Mara plain that straddles the border of Kenya and Tanzania is <a href="https://www.livescience.com/23310-serengeti.html">famous</a> for its abundant and diverse wildlife. It is also home to <a href="https://www.ietravel.com/blog/wildebeests-one-seven-new-wonders-world">one of the</a> wonders of the world: the Serengeti-Mara wildebeest migration. Each year about two million wildebeest, zebra and gazelles migrate from Tanzania to Kenya’s Maasai Mara in search of food and water. </p>
<p>The Serengeti-Mara is made up of pastoral community lands and 12 major protected areas, including the world famous Maasai Mara national reserve and the Serengeti national park. These make up, what <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6434/1424">we call</a>, the “core protected area”. </p>
<p>But despite its vast protected areas, the Serengeti-Mara is being threatened. </p>
<p>In our <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6434/1424">new research</a> we show how activities by people – like farming, erecting fences and settlements – are proliferating around the borders of the core protected areas. This is putting huge pressure on the area’s environment, natural resources and wildlife. </p>
<p>This is the first time that a large team of scientists, from seven countries, pooled together various lines of evidence – like ground vegetation monitoring, aerial surveys of animals and GPS tracked animals – to show the impact of human activity on the Serengeti-Mara. The data covers a period of 40 years. </p>
<p>We found that the activities of people have caused extreme changes to the habitat. It has significantly reduced the amount of grass and, because of farms, settlements and fences, the landscape has become fragmented – this means animals can’t move freely to find resources or mate. Key ecological functions have also changed. There are less man-made or wild fires which means that trees and shrubs are able to take root, soils are damaged – and so the land produces less plants – and the area becomes more sensitive to climate change. </p>
<h2>Findings</h2>
<p>We used 62 aerial surveys, from 1977 to 2016, to examine changes to wildlife, livestock and settlements around the area. For human population figures, we used data collected by the Kenyan and Tanzanian governments. </p>
<p>We found that, within a 60km radius of the core protected area boundary, there were 26% more people. An increase from 4.6 million to 5.8 million in 13 years. The population growth rate was even higher within a 15km radius. </p>
<p>With more people come more livestock, settlements and fences. </p>
<p>The number of fenced plots has increased by <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep41450">more than</a> 20% since 2010 outside of the core protected area, in the Mara Region of Kenya. We found a high density of bomas (settlements), and the number was rising in parts of the Mara by up to three new bomas per square kilometre per year. There was also a substantial increase in the number of sheep and goats (276.2%) and a slight decrease in the number of cattle (9.4%) in the Narok region in Kenya. </p>
<p>But the livestock don’t just stay on the boundaries of the protected areas. They’re going in. Livestock paths were prevalent and visible up to 5km, often even further, inside. This flags that illegal grazing is happening which reduces the quantity and quality of food available for wildlife. </p>
<p>For instance we found that, from 1977 to 2016, illegal incursions into the Maasai Mara national reserve by cattle increased by 1053% and by sheep and goats by 1174%. </p>
<p>We also found that the numbers of resident wildlife species declined by between 40% and 87%. In addition, 63.5% fewer migratory wildebeest used the reserve. </p>
<p>Another threat is agriculture. Over 34 years the amount of agriculture happening around the border went up by 17%. It now covers 54% of the land around the protected area and has destroyed large natural habitats close by. Coupled with high livestock densities, this has intensified the pressure to graze livestock inside protected areas. </p>
<p>The biggest impact has been on migratory animals – like wildebeest. </p>
<p>Using data gathered from GPS radio-collared wildebeest, we found that they were coming together in dense groups at specific locations inside core protected areas as opposed to ranging widely inside and outside.</p>
<p>This reduces the amount of grass each animal has to eat and, because of over-grazing, weakens the capacity of soil to store nutrients and carbon. This means the land is less productive and it increases the area’s sensitivity to weather changes. </p>
<p>There are also less natural or wild fires which are key to maintaining grasslands. When livestock grazing removes grass, young trees and shrubs take root. This turns grasslands into shrublands or woodlands. Wild grazers, like hartebeest, are then likely to be replaced by animals that eat leaves and twigs, like giraffes. </p>
<p>The most troubling changes have taken place in an area called Narok County, located in southwestern Kenya. This area of about 17,933 sq km includes the protected Masai Mara Reserve, wildlife conservancies and community land. </p>
<p>Wildlife numbers here have dramatically declined. This is a big worry because the Maasai Mara is where migratory wildlife go to eat and drink water in the dry season. In its protected areas, over about 40 years, the number of cattle (40%), sheep and goats (189.6%) all increased and virtually all the large wildlife species such as giraffe, eland and topi decreased by between 54% and 93%. The number of migratory wildebeest declined by about 80% and zebra by 75%.</p>
<h2>The impact</h2>
<p>These intense and extensive changes mean that the Serengeti-Mara area’s wildlife has an unsure future. </p>
<p>The findings call for an immediate and robust response to save the future of the region’s wildlife populations, their habitats and the tourism revenue they bring from imminent jeopardy. </p>
<p>The migration and dispersal corridors along the edges of the Serengeti-Mara should be better protected. Livestock numbers, fences, charcoal trade, cultivation and settlements should be regulated. And illegal livestock grazing and poaching must be controlled in protected areas. Also, conservation benefits should be fairly distributed to communities living around the Serengeti-Mara.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114389/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Ogutu receives funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation through the African Bioservices Project and the German Research Foundation (Grant No. OG 83/1-1). He is affiliated to the University of Hohenheim, Institute of Crop Science, Biostatistics Unit. </span></em></p>Intense and extensive changes mean that the Serengeti-Mara area’s wildlife has an unsure future.Joseph Ogutu, Senior Statistician, University of HohenheimLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1054112018-11-05T15:33:19Z2018-11-05T15:33:19ZHow we arrived at a $1 billion annual price tag to save Africa’s lions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243439/original/file-20181101-83635-1xcrr39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There’s a need to secure Africa’s 282 massive "lionscapes".</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A billion dollars. That’s approximately what it would <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/10/16/1805048115.full.pdf">cost</a>, to save the African lion. That’s a billion dollars each year, every year into the foreseeable future. </p>
<p>The startling price tag comes from a calculation we did, starting with a new database we compiled of available funding in protected areas with lions. To our knowledge it’s the most comprehensive and up-to-date database of its kind. </p>
<p>Protected areas are the cornerstone of conservation yet we found that most of Africa’s extraordinary parks face grave funding shortfalls. Parks without funding often become protected in name only. Their staff, including the rangers and guards on the frontlines, simply cannot function without funds that pay for working equipment, rations, petrol and to keep the electricity running. Sometimes even salaries go unpaid. </p>
<p>Using the conservation needs of lions as a proxy for wildlife more generally, we compiled a dataset of funding in Africa’s protected areas with lions and estimated a minimum target for conserving the species and managing the areas effectively. </p>
<p>We then applied three thresholds to generate a likely range of funding required to effectively conserve lions; $978/km2 per year based on budgets provided by the <a href="https://www.africanparks.org/">African Parks Network</a>; $1,271/km2 based on a new model we developed which estimated what it would cost to conserve lions at about 50% of their carrying capacity; and $2,030/km2 based <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ele.12091">on calculations</a> of the cost of managing lions in unfenced protected areas. </p>
<p>We applied those figures to answer the question, what will it cost to conserve lions and, more broadly, to secure prey populations and the ecological and economic services offered by protected areas on which both people and biodiversity depend? </p>
<p>The answer is between $1.2bn to $2.4 billion – or $1,000 to $2,000/km2 annually. </p>
<p>Critically though, we’re not talking about lions in isolation. This price tag is for securing most of Africa’s protected areas that still contain lions – 282 massive “lionscapes”. The parks are also home to thousands of additional species, everything from dung beetles to elephants and the plants that sustain them. They also support communities living adjacent to them, and provide jobs to a much wider pool of people.</p>
<p>Most of Africa’s large protected areas are underfunded. We estimate that only around 20% of the 282 areas have sufficient funds to ensure the survival of lions, as well as the other species they support. To our knowledge, this is the first time anyone has been able to put a number on the total figure that will be needed to protect Africa’s parks in perpetuity. </p>
<h2>The power of parks</h2>
<p>They are famous places like the Maasai Mara National Reserve in Kenya and South Africa’s Kruger National Park where, every year, millions of tourists see magnificent wildlife in the flesh. </p>
<p>They’re also places like <a href="https://www.panthera.org/cms/sites/default/files/The%20Distribution%20and%20Status%20of%20Lions%20and%20Other%20Large%20Carnivores%20in%20Luengue-Luiana%20and%20Mavinga%20National%20Parks%2C%20Angola.pdf">Luengue-Luiana and Mavinga National Parks</a> in Angola, which few people have heard of, let alone visit. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243491/original/file-20181101-83661-qvk7up.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/243491/original/file-20181101-83661-qvk7up.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243491/original/file-20181101-83661-qvk7up.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243491/original/file-20181101-83661-qvk7up.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243491/original/file-20181101-83661-qvk7up.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243491/original/file-20181101-83661-qvk7up.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/243491/original/file-20181101-83661-qvk7up.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Viewing wild lions at the Phinda Game Reserve, South Africa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Luke Hunter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Potentially just as magnificent as the Mara and Kruger, parks like Luengue-Luiana lack the financial resources required to effectively manage them.</p>
<p>Closing the financial gap for Luengue-Luiana and other parks in the same dire straits would safeguard parks and the priceless wealth of African biodiversity they contain, with the lion as the iconic apex predator of every one of them.</p>
<p>Adding immeasurably to their potential conservation value, parks can also act as potent engines of economic opportunity. The tourism industry in sub-Saharan Africa generates an <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/1882unwtowildlifepaper.pdf">estimated</a> $34 billion annually and directly creates six million jobs. </p>
<p>Protecting parks also means protecting access to jobs for local communities whether as rangers, managers or chefs working in parks, lodges and hotels. There’s also a much wider network that supplies parks with goods and services – everything from locally grown food to liability insurance for the rare cases where tourists ignore the rules and attempt to take a selfie with a lion.</p>
<p>Investing a billion dollars a year now would not only secure the lion and its landscapes, it also would secure the long term future of many millions of people living nearby.</p>
<h2>Why it’s possible</h2>
<p>An injection of one billion dollars is unlikely to happen overnight or in a single, stunning lottery-type win. But putting the figure into context makes me believe that it’s possible.</p>
<p>A billion dollars is only 2% of the <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dac/stats/documentupload/Africa-Development-Aid-at-a-Glance.pdf">$51 billion</a> allocated each year by foreign governments and multi-lateral organisations to advance development in Africa. In this context, finding an extra $1 billion seems a prudent investment given that it will be used to safeguard the real estate on which potentially millions of new jobs rely. </p>
<p>Preserving protected areas – and saving the lion – is now a global challenge. And it’s time other countries stepped up to the plate. </p>
<p>Our paper also found that in many countries, international funding for parks is a fraction of the commitment made by African governments. But, more so than for any other continent, Africa’s wildlife is humanity’s shared heritage and responsibility. Now is the time for the international community, the donors and supporters of all stripes, to match Africa’s commitments. What better species than the magnificent lion to unite such an effort?</p>
<p><em>The research was undertaken by Peter Lindsey, Jennie Miller and Lisanne Petracca with contributions from a multi-authored team working in eight countries.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/105411/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luke Hunter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A billion dollars a year would secure Africa’s lions and its landscapes as well as millions of people living nearby.Luke Hunter, Senior research associate, University of KwaZulu-NatalLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1011232018-08-12T06:59:23Z2018-08-12T06:59:23ZWhy cheetahs in the Maasai Mara need better protection from tourists<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/231130/original/file-20180808-191041-agoalf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In parts of the Maasai Mara its not uncommon to see more than 30 tourist vehicles at a sighting</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Femke Broekhuis</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The global cheetah population is continuing to decline <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/3/528.full">with only</a> about 7000 individuals left in Africa. This is thought to be <a href="http://www.catsg.org/cheetah/05_library/5_3_publications/M/Myers_1975_Cheetah_in_Africa.pdf">about</a> half the population that existed 40 years ago. The decline has been <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-being-done-in-kenyas-maasai-mara-to-protect-cheetahs-50470">caused by</a> the loss and fragmentation of their natural habitats, a decline in their prey base, the illegal trade in wildlife as well as conflict with humans for space.</p>
<p>Cheetahs have <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/3/528.full">disappeared from</a> 91% of their historic range. This is hugely problematic as cheetahs are a wide-ranging species. To be viable a cheetah population needs a contiguous, suitable habitat which covers about <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/4620858.pdf?casa_token=s1A6qW98U2sAAAAA:gNJqe8AE-RJH-5_Yi7XY3UJT7HT8D0YOX6uqZdIlPNtFq45Hc3GfSNO_v0KHiwwGG1boM7MuP7T_fgzdtl0oBKRwmZavZbxtvS_F9FtY-W-cr9cu">4,000–8,000 km2</a>. But <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/3/528.full">few protected areas</a> in Africa are larger than 4,000 km2. </p>
<p>As a result, most of the cheetahs in the world – <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/114/3/528.full">77%</a> – are believed to range outside protected areas. But this isn’t ideal for the animals as, from previous research we conducted using data from GPS satellite collars fitted on cheetahs in the Maasai Mara, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.4269">we found</a> that cheetahs avoid areas of high human disturbance and prefer protected, wildlife areas.</p>
<p>These results show the importance of wildlife areas for cheetahs, but my most <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.4180">recent research</a> shows that these protected spaces have challenges of their own. We found that the number of cubs a cheetah is able to rear is lower in areas that receive lots of tourists compared with areas that are visited less. This suggests that cheetahs aren’t getting the protection they need, particularly from the impact of growing numbers of tourists.</p>
<h2>Maasai Mara</h2>
<p>Kenya’s Maasai Mara has one of the <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0153875">highest</a> cheetah densities in the world, but it’s a landscape that is under <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep41450">increasing human pressure</a>.</p>
<p>Famous for its spectacular wildebeest migration, the Maasai Mara is a popular tourist destination. The wildlife areas of the Maasai Mara include the Maasai Mara National Reserve, which is <a href="http://www.narok.go.ke/maasai-mara">managed by</a> the Narok County Government, and numerous <a href="https://www.maraconservancies.org/">wildlife conservancies</a>, each run by different management companies. </p>
<p>The conservancies are formed through a partnership between Maasai landowners and tourism companies, whereby landowners receive a fixed, monthly payment for leasing their land for wildlife based activities on the condition that they do not live on the land, cultivate or develop it. Combined, the wildlife areas, which are predominantly used for photographic tourism, <a href="https://www.maraconservancies.org/conservancies-profiles/">cover</a> an area of about 2,600 km2 – one-tenth the size of Wales or Belgium.</p>
<p>During the high season about <a href="http://geonode-rris.biopama.org/documents/863">2,700 people</a> visit the Maasai Mara National Reserve daily. But they are often not adequately managed. </p>
<p>The Mara Reserve – with the exception of a conservancy called the Mara Triangle – doesn’t limit the number of tourists that enter the park per day, and there are no restrictions on the number of tourist vehicles at a predator sighting. It’s therefore not uncommon to see more than 30 tourist vehicles at a sighting. </p>
<p>Ideally, the Mara Reserve should restrict the number of tourists, especially during the peak tourist seasons.</p>
<p>Tourists also affect the landscape of wildlife areas. For example, tourist accommodation is continuing to increase in the Mara Reserve and these facilities are usually built on river banks which are prime habitats for species such as elephants, leopards and breeding raptors.</p>
<h2>The research</h2>
<p>One crucial element for a healthy cheetah population is cub recruitment, defined as offspring survival to independence. </p>
<p>Cheetahs have relatively big litters, ranging between one to six cubs. But cheetah cubs can succumb to various factors including abandonment, poor health, and fires so the number of cubs that reach independence can be very low, ranging from <a href="https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1994.tb04855.x">5%</a> to <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/kalahari-cheetahs-9780198712145?cc=ke&lang=en&">28.9%</a>. </p>
<p>I was interested in finding out if tourism is playing a role in this.</p>
<p>By analysing four years of data on female cheetahs with cubs it became apparent that high numbers of tourists are having <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ece3.4180">a negative effect</a> on the number of cubs that reach independence. More specifically, females in areas with a lot of tourists on average raised one cub (or none survive) per litter to independence compared to more than two cubs in low tourist areas. </p>
<p>There was no hard evidence of direct mortality caused by tourists. But my conclusion from my findings is that tourists are likely to have an indirect effect on cub survival. This could be because they lead to cheetahs changing their behaviour and increase their stress levels by getting too close, overcrowding with too many vehicles, staying at sightings for prolonged periods of time and by making excessive noise. </p>
<h2>What can be done?</h2>
<p>My study highlights the importance of implementing and enforcing strict wildlife viewing guidelines, especially in areas where tourist numbers are high. The Maasai Mara’s wildlife conservancies are largely getting this right. Tourist numbers are limited to the number of beds per conservancy and only five vehicles are allowed at a sighting at any given time. </p>
<p>Actions that could be taken include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>allowing no more than five vehicles at a cheetah sighting;</p></li>
<li><p>ensuring that no tourist vehicles are allowed near a cheetah lair (den);</p></li>
<li><p>ensuring that vehicles keep a minimum distance of 30m at a cheetah sighting;</p></li>
<li><p>ensuring that noise levels and general disturbance at sightings are kept to a minimum;</p></li>
<li><p>ensuring that vehicles do not separate mothers and cubs; and that</p></li>
<li><p>cheetahs on a kill are not enclosed by vehicles so that they can’t detect approaching danger.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>If tourism is controlled and managed properly, it can play a very positive role in conservation. Money from tourism goes towards the creation and maintenance of protected areas – like the wildlife conservancies – and can help <a href="https://www.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/conl.12576">alleviate</a> poverty. It also shows local communities the benefits that predators can bring and can <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/oryx/article/humanwildlife-coexistence-attitudes-and-behavioural-intentions-towards-predators-in-the-maasai-mara-kenya/7ABC8B279438EE319D0494216826B82E">positively</a> influence attitudes. </p>
<p>However if human pressures, like tourism, remain unchecked it risks having a negative impact on wildlife and could mean the loss of some of the biggest attractions – like cheetahs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/101123/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Permissions for this study were granted to Femke Broekhuis by the National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation (Permit No.: NACOSTI/P/16/69633/10821), the Kenya Wildlife Service (Permit No.: KWS/BRM/5001), Narok County Government and the Maasai Mara Wildlife Conservancies Association. The African Wildlife Foundation, Vidda Foundation, BAND Foundation made donations through the Kenya Wildlife Trust to cover operational costs. Nelson Keiwua, Saitoti Silantoi, Ruth Kebenei, Symon ole Ranah, David Thuo, Kosiom Keiwua, Kasaine Sankan, Kelvin Koinet, Niels Mogensen and Nic Elliot helped with data collection for this research.</span></em></p>New findings show that the numbers of cubs a cheetah is able to rear is lower in areas that receive lots of tourists.Femke Broekhuis, Senior research associate, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/504702015-12-03T04:31:54Z2015-12-03T04:31:54ZWhat’s being done in Kenya’s Maasai Mara to protect cheetahs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103902/original/image-20151201-18818-hofrp7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Human and wildlife conflict threatens to become a problem in the Maasai Mara landscape.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The global cheetah population has plummeted over the last 100 years. In the early 1900s an estimated 100 000 roamed the earth. Now there are only 7,500, a decline of more than <a href="http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/219/0">90%</a>. They are extinct in 20 countries and occupy only 17% of their historic <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6167/1241484.short">range</a>. </p>
<p>This decline has been caused by the loss and fragmentation of their natural habitats, a decline in their prey base, the illegal trade in wildlife and conflict with humans for <a href="http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/219/0">space</a>. </p>
<p>Cheetahs still occur across most of Africa but there are two areas that are of particular significance. The first is southern African - Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. The second is East Africa - <a href="https://portals.iucn.org/library/efiles/documents/1996-008.pdf">Kenya and Tanzania</a>. </p>
<p>Throughout the cheetahs’ range there are projects working to conserve the few remaining animals. The majority of the conservation efforts and research published on wild cheetahs comes from Namibia, Tanzania - the Serengeti specifically - and Botswana. </p>
<p>Comparatively little is known about cheetahs in Kenya. In the last 15 years only two peer-reviewed publications have been published on cheetahs in the area. One was on <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23036718">mange</a> and the other on <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10531-006-9124-8#page-1">human-wildlife conflict</a>. As a consequence of this scarcity of data a new initiative, the Mara Cheetah Project, has been launched to save the country’s dwindling population.</p>
<h2>The threats</h2>
<p>In Kenya, the Maasai Mara region towards the south west of the country boasts abundant wildlife and vast plains. It is also renowned for its annual wildebeest migration and high densities of predators, including cheetahs. Cheetahs in the Maasai Mara face a kaleidoscope of threats. Most are very similar to the threats faced by cheetah populations in the rest of Africa as well as in Iran. </p>
<p>The human population of Kenya has tripled over the last 45 years to over 42 <a href="http://www.knbs.or.ke/">million</a>, increasing the need for land and space. This has posed the biggest threat to cheetahs. They have large home-ranges. Females can cover an area of over <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1469-7998.2007.00375.x/full">1500 km2</a>, leading to a conflict over land. Cheetah populations are severely affected by habitat loss and fragmentation. </p>
<p>With an increasing human-wildlife interface there is also an increased risk of disease transmission from domestic animals to wildlife. In the Maasai Mara National Reserve 12.5% of the cheetah population has been diagnosed with sarcoptic <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23036718">mange</a>. This is a skin disease caused by the Sarcoptes mite that is similar to human scabies.</p>
<p>The disease leads to weight loss and weakness. This results in lower hunting success, lower fertility rates and increased vulnerability to predation. When severe, mange can result in <a href="http://www.oie.int/doc/ged/d521.pdf">death</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, stress levels can reduce immunity in animals, making them more prone to contracting the disease. Elevated stress levels can also have severe consequences on behaviour and reproductive success.</p>
<p>Stress levels can rise for a range of reasons including predation risk, competition and social circumstances. Human based factors can also elevate stress levels in animals. These include mechanised vehicles, livestock and rowdy tourists. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103717/original/image-20151130-10285-1eafcwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103717/original/image-20151130-10285-1eafcwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/103717/original/image-20151130-10285-1eafcwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103717/original/image-20151130-10285-1eafcwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103717/original/image-20151130-10285-1eafcwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=436&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103717/original/image-20151130-10285-1eafcwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103717/original/image-20151130-10285-1eafcwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/103717/original/image-20151130-10285-1eafcwu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=547&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Interaction with humans is creating elevated stress levels for cheetahs in the Maasaai Mara region.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Femke Broekhuis</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The Mara cheetah project</h2>
<p>The Kenya Wildlife <a href="http://www.kenyawildlifetrust.org/">Trust</a> has set up the Mara Cheetah <a href="http://www.maracheetahs.org/">Project</a> to tackle the problem. Its aim is to establish the number of cheetahs in the Mara, identify the threats they face and, where possible, to find ways to mitigate the threats. </p>
<p>The project is using a research-driven conservation approach through a combination of long-term population monitoring, ecological research and community-based conservation.</p>
<p>The project team is collecting data on cheetahs to help understand and mitigate some of these threats. Like the human fingerprint, each cheetah has a unique spot pattern. This is used to <a href="http://www.maracheetahs.org/cheetah-identification/">identify individuals</a> so that team members can effectively monitor the Mara’s cheetah population.</p>
<p>This allows the project to determine important parameters such as densities, number of births and deaths, ranging behaviour and disease prevalence. In addition, whenever possible the team collects biological samples in the form of blood, tissue and faeces.</p>
<p>Education, community involvement and capacity building are central to the conservation efforts in the Mara. Some of these include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>anti-poisoning campaigns to discourage people in the communities from using poisons to kill predators, </p></li>
<li><p>school visits and creative activities to engage children in wildlife-related issues, and</p></li>
<li><p>human-wildlife conflict questionnaires to identify conflict hotspots to help management plans and enhance the distribution of conservation efforts in most affected areas. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>The hope is that by building understanding and tolerance there is a chance that cheetahs and humans can continue to co-exist in this magnificent ecosystem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50470/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Mara Cheetah Project receives funding from the BAND Foundation, VIDDA Foundation, Wildscapes Foundation,Base Camp Foundation, African Wildlife Fund, Asilia and various private donors. Femke Broekhuis is affiliated with the Kenya Wildlife Trust and the Wildlife Conservation Research Unit (WildCRU), University of Oxford. </span></em></p>Cheetahs face a number of threats in the Maasai Mara landscape but there are efforts underway to help them overcome these.Femke Broekhuis, Researcher, Project Director Mara Cheetah Project, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.