tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/manuel-andres-lopez-obrador-53939/articlesManuel Andres Lopez Obrador – The Conversation2019-02-08T11:32:05Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1093572019-02-08T11:32:05Z2019-02-08T11:32:05ZLópez Obrador clashes with courts after vowing ‘poverty’ for Mexican government<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257819/original/file-20190207-174880-ydnlpm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">López Obrader wants to cut salaries for all government workers in Mexico, including himself.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Mexico-Fuel-Theft/af44b632456944778936c2f4902a0db6/60/0">AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s rare for presidents to advocate for poverty, but that’s just what <a href="https://theconversation.com/andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-was-elected-to-transform-mexico-can-he-do-it-99176">Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador</a> is doing.</p>
<p>At a press conference on Feb. 1, López Obrador said his government would embrace what he called “<a href="https://lopezobrador.org.mx/2019/02/01/version-estenografica-de-la-conferencia-de-prensa-matutina-del-presidente-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-36/">Franciscan poverty</a>” if it would “transfer funds to the people” and achieve “development, jobs and welfare.” </p>
<p>Francis of Assisi was a Catholic saint who <a href="https://www.friarsofstfrancis.org/the-spirit-of-poverty-of-st-francis-of-assisi/">disdained material wealth</a> to follow Christ as a poor man.</p>
<p>López Obrador’s poverty vow is more bureaucratic than religious. As part of an ambitious effort to fight poverty and reduce government corruption, the president proposed to cut the salaries of public officials, including his own, <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2018/07/amlo-austeridad-corrupcion-puntos/">slash federal budgets</a> and <a href="https://expansion.mx/finanzas-personales/2018/08/01/eres-empleado-de-confianza-asi-te-afectaran-las-decisiones-de-amlo">lay off 70 percent of non-unionized federal workers</a>. An estimated <a href="https://twitter.com/Viri_Rios/status/1018880589850701824">276,290</a> public employees will lose their jobs.</p>
<p>After lawsuits were filed by <a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/la-corte-congela-el-tope-a-salarios-pese-a-resistencia-habra-austeridad-delgado/1283451">opposition political parties</a> and Mexico’s <a href="http://www.cndh.org.mx/sites/all/doc/Acciones/Acc_Inc_2018_105.pdf">National Human Rights Commission</a>, the Supreme Court in December <a href="https://www.scjn.gob.mx/sites/default/files/acuerdos_controversias_constit/documento/2018-12-07/ACU%207-12-18%20ISDAI%20105-18.pdf">granted a temporary suspension</a> of López Obrador’s new <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/LFRemSP_051118.pdf">Federal Law of Public Servant Salaries</a>. </p>
<p>Saying that even austerity budgets must guarantee the basic functioning of the government, Justice Alberto Pérez Dayán said López Obrador’s plan cannot go into effect until the Supreme Court rules on its constitutionality. </p>
<p>The decision has set up a standoff between the president and the courts, with Mexico’s federal budget and <a href="https://www.proceso.com.mx/570407/el-pueblo-se-cansa-de-tanta-pinche-transa-dice-amlo-confirma-intervencion-ante-scjn-video">judicial independence</a> hanging in the balance.</p>
<h2>Reducing inequality, one tree at a time</h2>
<p>López Obrador and his leftist Morena Party won a <a href="https://centralelectoral.ine.mx/2018/07/08/confirma-ine-resultados-de-eleccion-presidencial-2018/">landslide victory</a> in Mexico’s 2018 general election on promises that they would transform Mexico, empowering the underprivileged in a country with gaping inequality.</p>
<p>Since taking office on Dec. 1, López Obrador has suggested creating some 20,000 jobs in fruit production and wood harvesting by <a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/lopez-obrador-vuelve-a-sus-origenes-presenta-en-tabasco-sembrando-vida/1293984">planting trees</a> on a million acres of land in rural southern Mexico. He has also proposed paying <a href="https://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/busca-lopez-obrador-llegar-a-85-millones-de-apoyos-a-adultos-mayores/1289997">small monthly pensions of up to 2,550 pesos</a> – around US$134 – to Mexicans above the age of 68 and to people with <a href="https://lopezobrador.org.mx/2018/12/20/destinara-gobierno-presupuesto-historico-para-personas-con-discapacidad-en-2019-presidente-de-mexico/">disabilities</a> who lack social security benefits.</p>
<p>Leftist governments usually fund social programs like this by raising taxes on the wealthy. López Obrador says he <a href="https://expansion.mx/economia/2018/11/26/estas-son-las-12-promesas-economicas-de-amlo">won’t do that</a>. Instead, his administration hopes to recover public funds by cracking down on <a href="https://books.google.com.mx/books?redir_esc=y&id=0-zmDQAAQBAJ&q=corrupcion#v=onepage&q=corrupci%C3%B3n&f=false">rampant corruption</a> and saving money with <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2018/07/16/actualidad/1531708329_222187.html">fiscal austerity</a>. That’s where the salary cuts and mass layoffs come into play.</p>
<p>López Obrador is an <a href="https://lopezobrador.org.mx/2017/11/04/asamblea-informativa-en-susticacan-zacatecas/">admirer of Benito Juárez</a>, the indigenous president who ruled Mexico from 1858 to 1872. Juárez extolled the virtues of selfless public service, <a href="http://www.biblioteca.tv/artman2/publish/1852_153/Discurso_pronunciado_por_Benito_Ju_rez_gobernador_del_estado_de_Oaxaca_ante_la_X_Legislatura_al_abrir_el_primer_periodo_de_sus_sesiones_ordinarias.shtml">saying</a> public servants should “devote themselves to work assiduously while resigning to live in … honorable modesty.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257823/original/file-20190207-174851-1bz67cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257823/original/file-20190207-174851-1bz67cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/257823/original/file-20190207-174851-1bz67cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257823/original/file-20190207-174851-1bz67cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257823/original/file-20190207-174851-1bz67cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257823/original/file-20190207-174851-1bz67cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257823/original/file-20190207-174851-1bz67cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/257823/original/file-20190207-174851-1bz67cx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Los Pinos presidential palace in Mexico City is now open to the public.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ea/Los_Pinos%2C_Mexico_2018.jpg">Drkgk/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>López Obrador flies commercial and has refused to take up residence in the Los Pinos presidential palace, turning it into a cultural center. </p>
<p>He also set his salary at a “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-11/amlo-eyes-salary-of-mexico-supreme-court-head-in-austerity-push">moderate</a>” 108,000 pesos, about <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/english/amlo-slash-60-his-salary">$5,700 a month</a> – roughly $68,400 a year. That’s 60 percent less than his predecessor, Enrique Peña Nieto, who earned <a href="https://adnpolitico.com/presidencia/2018/07/15/lopez-obrador-fija-en-108-000-el-tope-de-sueldos-para-funcionarios-en-mexico">the equivalent of $14,200 a month</a> in 2018.</p>
<p>The wage gap between average workers and the Mexican head of state was the highest in the world last year, according to a <a href="https://www.ig.com/uk/forex/research/pay-check#/salary">report by the IG Group</a>, a British financial services company. On average, Mexican workers earn around $15,311 a year. </p>
<p>López Obrador’s voluntary pay cut has drastically reduced the difference between his income and <a href="https://www.efe.com/efe/english/life/mexican-households-have-an-average-of-3-8-members-843-in-monthly-income/50000263-2666718">everyone else’s</a>.</p>
<h2>Attacks on the judiciary</h2>
<p>Since <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/1_270818.pdf">the Mexican Constitution</a> mandates that no public official should make more than the president, however, López Obrador has also effectively capped wages for all government employees. </p>
<p>To his mind, that’s a good thing.</p>
<p>The days of having “a rich government with a poor population” are over, the president <a href="https://aristeguinoticias.com/0812/mexico/quienes-deberian-impartir-justicia-estan-dando-un-mal-ejemplo-amlo/">told a crowd</a> in December. He was speaking in the western state of Nayarit, pledging aid for victims of a recent hurricane. </p>
<p>In the same speech, López Obrador attacked the Supreme Court’s decision to suspend his pay cut plan, accusing Mexican judges – not just Justice Pérez Dayán – of selfishly wanting to keep their salaries and benefits intact. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/1_270818.pdf">Article 94 of the Mexican Constitution</a> explicitly prohibits reducing the salary of judges at any time during their appointment, a guarantee of judicial independence that <a href="http://www.ordenjuridico.gob.mx/Constitucion/1857.pdf">dates back to 1857</a>.</p>
<p>In 2018, Supreme Court justices earned <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/ministros-aceptan-reducir-25-sus-salarios">269,215 pesos</a> – around $14,000 a month. </p>
<p>The Supreme Court has since <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/ministros-aceptan-reducir-25-sus-salarios">agreed</a> to take a 25 percent pay cut “in accordance with the new policy of austerity that the presidency has demanded of the Supreme Court of Justice.” That puts their 2019 salaries at about $10,500 a month, not including benefits. </p>
<p>In adopting this measure, the Supreme Court also clarified that, as an independent branch of government directly protected by the Constitution, the judiciary is not bound by the salary standards established by López Obrador. The justices will decide how to implement austerity within the court system. </p>
<h2>Judicial battles ahead</h2>
<p>The Supreme Court is expected to make a definitive ruling on the <a href="https://eljuegodelacorte.nexos.com.mx/?p=9321">two lawsuits challenging the constitutionality</a> of the Federal Law of Public Servant Salaries some time this year. </p>
<p>Over <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/nacion/mas-de-20-mil-piden-amparo-contra-la-ley-de-salarios">20,000 public servants have also filed individual complaints</a> in federal courts, saying salary cuts violate their labor rights. Under Mexican law, <a href="http://sjf.scjn.gob.mx/sjfsist/Documentos/Tesis/257/257483.pdf">legislation is deemed retrospective</a> – and thus unconstitutional – if it affects the vested rights of individuals. Employers, including the federal government, cannot unilaterally reduce their employees’ wages.</p>
<p>At least <a href="https://elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/en-38-dias-12-mil-817-trabajadores-despedidos-o-en-vias-de-serlo">12,817 Mexican public servants</a> have already been laid off under López Obrador’s austerity plan. Many of those who have kept their jobs have seen their <a href="https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/cartera/cero-prestaciones-burocratas-eventuales-y-por-honorarios">social security benefits and vacation time</a> eliminated under the new law.</p>
<p>Beyond its questionable constitutionality, López Obrador’s de facto salary cap on public servants does not take into account the expertise, seniority or skills required of high-level positions. Less than $5,700 a month is simply insufficient payment for the most highly skilled workers, Mexican constitutional <a href="http://www.enciclopediagro.org/index.php/indices/indice-de-biografias/102-arteaga-nava-elisur">expert</a> Elisur Arteaga told the newspaper <a href="https://www.razon.com.mx/mexico/juristas-ley-de-salarios-al-vapor-habra-amparos/">La Razon</a> last year. He expects talent will flee the government for the private sector.</p>
<p>Nobody in Mexico thought that transforming the country would be easy when they voted López Obrador into office. To <a href="https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/28/opinion/1543428474_358305.html">paraphrase Mexican pundit Jesús Silva-Herzog</a>, fixing Mexico’s bloated and corrupt government was work for a surgeon with a scalpel. </p>
<p>López Obrador, it’s becoming clear, prefers a machete.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/109357/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In 2002, Luis Gómez Romero contributed to a constitutional amendment aimed at establishing that no public servant can receive remuneration higher than that established of the President of Mexico, which later became law.</span></em></p>Mexico’s new president has reduced his own salary and demanded that all federal workers
– including lawmakers and judges – take a massive pay cut, too. That may be illegal.Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/989792018-07-03T21:15:50Z2018-07-03T21:15:50ZWhy Mexico’s historic elections may bring about big change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225938/original/file-20180703-116135-1j38gtr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Andrés Manuel López Obrador acknowledges his supporters as he arrives to Mexico City's main square, the Zócalo, on July 1, 2018. The leftist López Obrador won the election and is calling for reconciliation. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Anthony Vazquez)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The election of a leftist party in Mexico for the first time in decades has the potential to transform the country as it dislodges its ruling elite, challenges the economic consensus and promises to eradicate violence and corruption. </p>
<p>In a country marked by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/28/world/americas/mexico-violence.html">extreme levels of violence</a> and deep social polarization, the July 1 elections were remarkable. </p>
<p>With the <a href="https://www.ine.mx/">second-highest voter turnout level</a> in recent memory (63 per cent), no allegations of fraud nor any reported incidents of violence, the leaders of the two parties (the right-of-center PAN and the pragmatic ruling PRI) that have dominated the country’s politics and economy for the last 40 years <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-44677829">conceded defeat</a> by 8:30 p.m. to the leftist candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (widely known as AMLO), even before official results were announced. </p>
<p>The prompt concessions attest to the magnitude of López Obrador’s landslide victory on his third attempt at reaching the presidency: Early returns gave the folksy southerner <a href="https://www.ine.mx/">53 per cent of the vote</a>, the highest for a presidential candidate in democratic Mexico, and <a href="http://www.parametria.com.mx/">projections</a> on election night showed his coalition winning a congressional majority. </p>
<p>López Obrador was thus elected with ample political capital and the institutional levers required to transform the country. </p>
<h2>The gamble</h2>
<p>Despite strong opposition from the country’s elite, for a plurality of Mexicans, López Obrador represented the best choice to tackle the country’s problems. <a href="https://www.reforma.com/libre/players/mmplayer.aspx?idm=101099&te=100&ap=1">Polling leading up to the election</a> showed that he was considered by 43 per cent of Mexicans to be the best candidate to reduce corruption; by 41 per cent to improve the country’s economy; by 37 per cent to deal with public insecurity; and by 36 per cent to combat drug cartels and organized crime. These were numbers twice as high as any of his rivals’. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225943/original/file-20180703-116120-jfwlu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/225943/original/file-20180703-116120-jfwlu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225943/original/file-20180703-116120-jfwlu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225943/original/file-20180703-116120-jfwlu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=376&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225943/original/file-20180703-116120-jfwlu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225943/original/file-20180703-116120-jfwlu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/225943/original/file-20180703-116120-jfwlu8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=473&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tens of thousands pack Mexico City’s main square, the Zócalo, as Andrés Manuel López Obrador delivers his victory speech on July 1, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Moises Castillo)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.reforma.com/libre/players/mmplayer.aspx?idm=101099&te=100&ap=1">Polling also showed</a>, however, that, among his contenders, he was seen as the most likely to destabilize the country if elected. </p>
<p>The desire for change was such that Mexicans appear to have taken a gamble at the ballot box by voting for the riskier choice. </p>
<h2>How transformative a change?</h2>
<p>Yet, despite his <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/mexico-s-victor-pledges-to-reach-understanding-with-trump-1.3996810">portrayal as a leftist firebrand</a> and the risk some see in his election, the more likely outcome is a gradual shift to a more redistributive economic model. Here are some highlights:</p>
<p><strong>1) NAFTA</strong></p>
<p>While a frequent <a href="http://www.excelsior.com.mx/nacional/amlo-ve-pocos-resultados-con-tlcan-y-se-lanza-contra-naim/1229806">critic of NAFTA</a>, López Obrador is unlikely to seek major changes to the agreement, let alone try to annul it. During his <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxxmmoNucNY#action=share">victory speech</a>, he repeated his idea that boosting economic growth, reducing poverty and preventing illegal migration to the United States required self-sufficiency in agricultural production. </p>
<p>Agricultural policy is therefore likely to be central to his administration, and — Mexico’s surplus with the U.S. and Canada in agriculture notwithstanding — he is likely to deepen discussions on farm subsidies should a renegotiated NAFTA not happen soon.</p>
<p>But a radical approach to the agreement is unlikely. Indeed, his point man on renegotiations, a former IMF official, <a href="http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/economia/que-piensa-el-negociador-de-amlo-en-tlcan-sobre-el-acuerdo">has suggested</a> that López Obrador’s team agrees with the “central positions” of the country’s negotiating team.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mexico-negotiates-nafta-with-painful-history-in-mind-and-elections-on-the-way-90643">Mexico negotiates NAFTA with painful history in mind – and elections on the way</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>2) The economy</strong></p>
<p>López Obrador seeks to maintain macroeconomic stability with a focus on socio-economic redistribution. In a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R77Sa2srGUg&feature=youtu.be">short speech</a> on election night, which came across as non-socialist manifesto, he explicitly mentioned that his government will not become authoritarian (overtly or covertly), guaranteed the continued independence of the Central Bank and declared that private property would be respected and that any nationalization was completely off the table. </p>
<p>On the important energy sector, which was recently liberalized, he assured investors that all agreements made by the state would be respected, unless investigations unveiled signs of corruption in their making.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mexican-energy-reform-may-be-a-bridge-to-a-low-carbon-economy-or-a-fossil-fuel-past-31129">Mexican energy reform may be a bridge to a low carbon economy – or a fossil fuel past</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>3) Taxation, poverty and corruption</strong></p>
<p>The left’s stunning election is largely explained by persistent poverty and the unequal distribution of the benefits of economic liberalization. Mexico is among a handful of countries in Latin America that has not seen a reduction in poverty despite the commodities boom of the 2000s (its rate has stubbornly sat <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.NAHC?locations=MX">at around 53 per cent</a>) and has seen a continued loss of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-wages-incomes-poverty-2017-2">purchasing power</a>. </p>
<p>In effect, <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/2018/01/15/poder-adquisitivo-de-los-mexicanos-cae-80-en-30-anos-revela-la-unam_a_23333915/">some studies</a> point to a decrease of a staggering 80 per cent of Mexicans’ purchasing power over the last 30 years.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-a-living-wage-look-like-in-mexico-67826">What does a living wage look like in Mexico?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>To reduce poverty, López Obrador has vowed to overhaul current taxation levels and to increase social spending through the resources saved by clamping down on the country’s grotesque corruption. This is an area in which we are likely to see the most significant change should he succeed at taming corruption. </p>
<p><strong>4) The drug cartels and insecurity</strong></p>
<p>López Obrador has called for a new approach to fighting the drug cartels, although details are scant. Violence has reached unprecedented levels: <a href="https://justiceinmexico.org/2018-drug-violence-mexico-report/">116,000 people have been murdered</a> since 2012. Invoking a process of national reconciliation, his proposals involve some amnesty to lower-level criminals who he views as victims of structural poverty.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-decade-of-murder-and-grief-mexicos-drug-war-turns-ten-70036">A decade of murder and grief: Mexico's drug war turns ten</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The most important change, however, is likely to be in the role the military plays in national security: There <a href="https://www.elsiglodedurango.com.mx/noticia/973239.en-3-anos-se-sacaria-al-ejercito-de-las-calles-dice-asesor-de-amlo.html">are indications</a> that his team intends to centralize the country’s police forces and withdraw the military from fighting organized crime.</p>
<p>López Obrador has been a polarizing figure, and portrayed as either a dangerous populist or a <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Bonapartist">Bonapartist</a> saviour. What we’re likely to see instead from López Obrador is transformative yet stable change in Mexico.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98979/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jordi Díez does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico could bring about stable change in a country marked by violence and social polarization.Jordi Díez, Professor, University of GuelphLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/960632018-05-22T10:47:47Z2018-05-22T10:47:47ZAmnesty for drug traffickers? That’s one Mexican presidential candidate’s pitch to voters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219595/original/file-20180518-42230-o8y9p9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can Mexico become a 'loving republic' built on forgiveness rather than punishment?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/original-illustration-drawing-convicted-prisoners-jail-547276720">Shutterstock/Nalidsa</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/amnistia-para-traficantes-eso-propone-este-candidato-presidencial-mexicano-98800"><em>Leer en español</em></a>.</p>
<p>With over <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-violence/mexico-suffers-deadliest-month-on-record-2017-set-to-be-worst-year-idUSKBN1DL2Z6">29,000 murders</a>, 2017 was the deadliest year in Mexico since modern record-keeping began. Nearly two-thirds of Mexicans <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-04/www-march-2018.pdf">say</a> crime and violence are the biggest problems facing their country. </p>
<p>A main cause of the bloodshed, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-decade-of-murder-and-grief-mexicos-drug-war-turns-ten-70036">studies show</a>, is the Mexican government’s violent crackdown on drug trafficking. <a href="http://calderon.presidencia.gob.mx/2006/12/anuncio-sobre-la-operacion-conjunta-michoacan/">Launched in 2006</a> under President Felipe Calderón, this military assault on cartels has left <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/2017/11/23/pena-y-calderon-suman-234-mil-muertos-y-2017-es-oficialmente-el-ano-mas-violento-en-la-historia-reciente-de-mexico_a_23285694/">234,966 people dead</a> in 11 years. </p>
<p>While numerous drug kingpins have been jailed, cartels <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/2016/dec/08/mexico-war-on-drugs-cost-achievements-us-billions">fractured under law enforcement pressure</a>, competing for territory and diversifying their business. Kidnapping and extortion have surged. Mexico is now <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-mexico-actually-the-worlds-second-most-murderous-nation-77897">one of the world’s most violent places</a>.</p>
<p>Now one presidential candidate in Mexico is hoping to win over voters with a novel response to the country’s security crisis: <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/catalina-perez-correa/nacion/amnistia">amnesty for criminals</a>.</p>
<h2>Justice not revenge</h2>
<p>The idea, first floated by leftist front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador in <a href="https://www.proceso.com.mx/450727/ofrece-amlo-amnistia-anticipada-los-grupos-poder">August 2016</a>, is undeveloped and quite likely quixotic. López Obrador has yet to even indicate precisely what benefit the Mexican government would get in exchange for pardoning felons. </p>
<p>Still, as a <a href="https://lha.uow.edu.au/law/contacts/UOW155522.html">law professor</a> who studies drug policy, I must give López Obrador some credit for originality. His three competitors have mostly <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com.mx/2018/04/22/asi-reaccionaron-los-mexicanos-al-primer-debate-presidencial_a_23417628/">frustrated voters</a> this campaign season by suggesting the same <a href="https://www.insightcrime.org/news/analysis/mexico-next-president-rising-criminal-violence-how-to-tackle-it/">tried-and-failed law enforcement-based strategies</a>. </p>
<p>López Obrador, founder and leader of Mexico’s MORENA Party, is a <a href="https://theconversation.com/in-mexico-a-firebrand-leftist-provokes-the-powers-that-be-including-donald-trump-78918">rabble-rousing politician</a> who delights in challenging the status quo. In this, his third presidential bid, he has on several occasions <a href="http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/elecciones-2018/amlo-plantea-analizar-amnistia-lideres-del-narco-para-garantizar-la-paz">suggested</a> that <a href="https://aristeguinoticias.com/0312/mexico/que-amnistias-propone-amlo-videos/">both members of organized crime groups</a> and corrupt politicians could be pardoned for their crimes. </p>
<p>When pressed for details on the amnesty plan, López Obrador has simply responded that “amnesty is not impunity” or that Mexico needs “justice,” not “revenge.” </p>
<p>Former Supreme Court Justice Olga Sánchez Cordero, López Obrador’s pick for secretary of the interior, has offered a few additional hints about the plan. She <a href="https://www.reforma.com/libre/players/mmplayer.aspx?idm=97601&te=100&ap=1">says that voters should think of amnesty</a> not as a security policy but as a kind of transitional justice. It would be an instrument used to pacify Mexico. </p>
<p>The opportunity would be time-limited. Criminals would lose their immunity after a specific date if they have not met certain conditions – though these conditions remain undefined. It would also exclude serious crimes such as torture, rape or homicide. </p>
<p>All presidential pardons would need to be approved by Congress, in accordance with the <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/1_150917.pdf">Mexican Constitution</a>. </p>
<h2>Amnesty in Colombia</h2>
<p>Sound vague? That’s because it is.</p>
<p>López Obrador says that his amnesty idea is still in development, and <a href="https://lopezobrador.org.mx/2018/05/08/participa-amlo-en-el-dialogo-por-la-paz-y-justicia-la-agenda-fundamental/">that his team will work</a> with religious organizations, Pope Francis, United Nations General Secretary António Guterres, Mexican civil society groups and human rights experts to develop “a plan to achieve peace for the country, with justice and dignity.” </p>
<p>Colombia offers one example of how amnesty can be used <a href="https://theconversation.com/colombian-guerrillas-disarm-starting-their-risky-return-to-civilian-life-73947">as an instrument for peace</a>. </p>
<p>In 2016 the Colombian government signed an accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, ending the Marxist group’s violent 52-year rebellion. In exchange for laying down their weapons, <a href="http://es.presidencia.gov.co/normativa/normativa/LEY%201820%20DEL%2030%20DE%20DICIEMBRE%20DE%202016.pdf">FARC fighters were offered protection</a> from prosecution for political crimes committed during the conflict.</p>
<p>The amnesty law is extremely controversial. Colombian conservatives and the United Nations alike have <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2017/03/16/colombia/1489680361_529580.html">criticized</a> it for prioritizing the rights of guerrillas over those of their victims. Colombia’s peace process has also been fraught by delays, <a href="https://theconversation.com/colombias-murder-rate-is-at-an-all-time-low-but-its-activists-keep-getting-killed-91602">flare-ups of violence</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-latest-threat-to-peace-in-colombia-congress-87810">political opposition</a>.</p>
<p>Still, according to the <a href="http://www.cerac.org.co/es/">Conflict Analysis Resource Center</a>, a think tank, conflict-related deaths among both civilians and combatants <a href="http://blog.cerac.org.co/un-ano-de-desescalamiento-conflicto-casi-detenido">dropped over 90 percent</a> in 2016. </p>
<h2>Would amnesty work in Mexico?</h2>
<p>Mexico is not Colombia. </p>
<p>López Obrador is proposing amnesty in a different conflict carried out by radically different actors – drug kingpins, corrupt politicians and security forces who for 11 years have waged war with <a href="https://theconversation.com/mexicos-corruption-problems-are-still-among-the-worlds-deepest-76627">virtual impunity</a>.</p>
<p>It’s unclear, for example, why drug traffickers would abandon their <a href="http://olinca.edu.mx/images/PDFs/Antecedentes_CONAGO_A.pdf">US$40 billion</a> illicit industry – which supports around <a href="http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2013/04/01/edito">500,000 jobs</a> in Mexico – in exchange for a preemptive pardon from authorities.</p>
<p>It is also difficult to reconcile López Obrador’s vows for <a href="https://www.forbes.com.mx/andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-promete-honestidad-como-pilar-de-su-gobierno/">honest government</a> with his proposal to pardon corruption, though he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQ5rvIHoAG4">has committed to</a> finishing all <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2018/04/19/mexico/1524150473_535247.html">ongoing investigations into public officials</a> accused of corruption. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219597/original/file-20180518-42200-vh6d1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/219597/original/file-20180518-42200-vh6d1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219597/original/file-20180518-42200-vh6d1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219597/original/file-20180518-42200-vh6d1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=421&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219597/original/file-20180518-42200-vh6d1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219597/original/file-20180518-42200-vh6d1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/219597/original/file-20180518-42200-vh6d1l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=529&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who goes by his initials, AMLO, has not elaborated on his amnesty idea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>López Obrador claims to seek a new “<a href="http://www.nacion321.com/elecciones/las-claves-para-entender-la-constitucion-moral-de-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador">moral constitution</a>” for Mexico. He maintains that forgiveness is necessary to construct a “república amorosa” – “<a href="https://books.google.com.au/books?id=pJHoAQAACAAJ&source=gbs_book_other_versions">loving republic</a>” – in which Mexicans “live under the principle that being good is the only way to be joyful.” </p>
<h2>A simple expectation</h2>
<p>Mexicans don’t feel joyful right now. </p>
<p>According to a <a href="https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-04/www-march-2018.pdf">recent IPSOS poll</a>, 89 percent of Mexicans believe the country is on the wrong track. Almost 70 percent disapprove of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s <a href="https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Impacta-el-periodo-electoral-en-la-aprobacion-del-presidente-20180301-0153.html">performance</a>.</p>
<p>Journalist and historian Héctor Aguilar Camín has <a href="https://www.nexos.com.mx/?p=34957">described</a> voters’ current mood as “melancholic.” <a href="https://theconversation.com/governors-gone-wild-mexico-faces-a-lost-generation-of-corrupt-leaders-76858">Rampant corruption</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/for-many-mexicans-this-government-spying-scandal-feels-eerily-familiar-79981">government repression</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-mexico-actually-the-worlds-second-most-murderous-nation-77897">bloody violence</a> have made them skeptical of politics. But, as Aguilar Camín says, people also need desperately to believe that change is possible.</p>
<p>This discontent has given López Obrador <a href="http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/elecciones-2018/lopez-obrador-el-presidenciable-que-mas-crece-en-intencion-de-voto">a virtually unbeatable lead</a> in the lead-up to the July election. </p>
<p>To paraphrase the prominent Mexican-American Univision reporter Jorge Ramos, all Mexicans want from their next president is <a href="https://twitter.com/oneamexico/status/996036144423952384">to keep them from being killed</a>. So they’re open to unusual ideas.</p>
<p>During <a href="https://elpais.com/internacional/2018/05/21/mexico/1526881664_964397.html">two presidential debates</a>, the only candidate other than López Obrador to propose a <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2018/04/bronco-mochar-manos/">radical new crime-fighting tactic</a> is Governor Jaime “El Bronco” Rodríguez, an independent from Nuevo Leon state. He promised “to cut off the hands” of corrupt politicians and criminals, a suggestion that left moderator <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPcI1RdkYJk">Azucena Uresti</a> – and <a href="https://www.debate.com.mx/politica/memes-bronco-debate-presidencial-declaracion-polemica-20180422-0266.html">most of the country</a> – aghast. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.diputados.gob.mx/LeyesBiblio/pdf/1_150917.pdf">Mexican Constitution</a> prohibits punishment with mutilation and torture.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qwY4XngqgZ4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Mexico held its first presidential debate on April 23, 2018. Independent Margarita Zavala, far left, dropped out of the race in mid-May.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Electoral advantages of ambiguity</h2>
<p>Only López Obrador, with his amnesty suggestion, has questioned whether aggressive law enforcement should even be the core tenet of Mexican security policy.</p>
<p>His competitors have <a href="https://www.publimetro.com.mx/mx/destacado-tv/2018/04/22/todos-me-estan-echando-monton-asi-fueron-los-ataques-amlo-debate.html">attacked</a> the idea, calling it “madness” and “nonsense.” Some accused López Obrador of being “a puppet of criminals.” </p>
<p>Alfonso Durazo, whom López Obrador’s would nominate to be Mexico’s secretary of security, <a href="https://www.animalpolitico.com/2018/04/alfonso-durazo-presenta-la-estrategia-de-seguridad-de-amlo/">believes</a> that an amnesty law could end the “cycle of war” in Mexico by setting in motion a process of national reconciliation.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, to actively combat crime, López Obrador says he would <a href="https://lopezobrador.org.mx/seguridad/">merge</a> the police and the military into one unified <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/11B0aNBuVpHB7GDVXhCKdYvVKw7D7Ta-x/view">national guard</a> under <a href="https://www.laotraopinion.com.mx/video-amlo-admite-que-dominaria-la-guardia-nacional/">direct presidential command</a>.</p>
<p>Maybe forgiveness and justice is what Mexico needs. But, for now, presidential pardons seem like little more than a hollow campaign promise. As Mexican pundit Denise Dresser has <a href="https://www.reforma.com/aplicacioneslibre/editoriales/editorial.aspx?id=133785&md5=bf01a6c9a494d84f5a9996299910ee64&ta=0dfdbac11765226904c16cb9ad1b2efe&lcmd5=e7143908412dfff2e3b6e6f84bc178f5">put it</a>, López Obrador’s amnesty plan is merely “a blank page on the table, with multiple scriveners working on it.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/96063/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Mexico’s presidential front-runner wants to end violence in Mexico by pardoning drug traffickers and corrupt officials. Some 235,000 people have died in the country’s 11-year cartel war.Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of WollongongLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.