tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/march-madness-25741/articlesMarch Madness – The Conversation2024-03-22T12:31:14Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2260922024-03-22T12:31:14Z2024-03-22T12:31:14ZWhy March Madness is a special time of year for state budgets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582647/original/file-20240318-24-4tudw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C6%2C4390%2C3045&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Feeling lucky?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SportsBetting-ThingstoKnow/d07b68af393548588b8a646d5cdd79e9/photo?Query=sports%20betting&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1985&currentItemNo=2">Wayne Parry/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March Madness – the time when the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/watch?cid=ncaa_mml_nav_men">best men’s</a> and <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/womens-di-championship?mml=1&cid=ncaa_mml_nav_women">women’s college</a> basketball teams challenge each other – is a made-for-television spectacle <a href="https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2023/04/ncaa-national-championship-ratings-record-low-uconn-sdsu-cbs-mens/">watched by millions</a>. While <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-03-08/march-madness-history-comprehensive-guide-mens-tournament">March Madness has been around for decades</a>, one of the tournament’s biggest changes happened in 2018, when the <a href="https://www.archerlaw.com/en/news-resources/client-advisories/landmark-u-s-supreme-court-decision-paves-the-way-for-legalized-sports-betting">Supreme Court struck down the ban on sports betting</a>. </p>
<p>Since then, legal sports betting has skyrocketed. Americans <a href="https://www.americangaming.org/resources/aga-commercial-gaming-revenue-tracker/">made US$120 billion of legal sports bets</a> in 2023, according to the American Gaming Association, which promotes gambling. In 2024, <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/39730969/estimate-projects-272b-wagers-ncaa-basketball-tournaments">the group predicts</a> Americans will place <a href="https://www.vox.com/2024/3/18/24102300/march-madness-sports-betting">$2.7 billion of legal bets</a> on March Madness alone.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bu.edu/questrom/profile/jay-zagorsky/">I am</a> a <a href="https://www.bu.edu/questrom/">business school</a> professor fascinated by <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-march-madness-and-the-nonprofit-that-manages-the-mayhem-93202">March Madness</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/market-for-illegal-sports-betting-in-us-is-not-really-a-150-billion-business-96618">sports betting</a>. Studying sports betting has shown me <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-gambling-be-the-secret-to-saving-when-rates-are-so-low-57961">how valuable it is</a> for states short on cash. Unfortunately, it also has significant drawbacks, especially for <a href="https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/help-by-state/">gambling addicts</a> and their families. </p>
<h2>Why lawmakers love sports betting</h2>
<p>As of March 2024, <a href="https://www.americangaming.org/research/state-gaming-map/">38 states allow</a> some form of sports gambling, and six more are debating the issue. State lawmakers are interested in sports gambling because they have a fiscal problem. State spending over time has <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-direct-general-expenditures">increased in both absolute</a> and <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-direct-general-expenditures-capita">per-person terms</a> after <a href="http://businessmacroeconomics.com">adjusting for inflation</a>.</p>
<p>While state spending is increasing, state revenue from so-called “sin taxes” has flatlined after adjusting for inflation. <a href="https://www.lung.org/research/trends-in-lung-disease/tobacco-trends-brief/overall-tobacco-trends">People are smoking</a> and <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/353858/alcohol-consumption-low-end-recent-readings.aspx">drinking less</a>, reducing <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-tobacco-tax-revenue">revenue from cigarette</a> and <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/state-and-local-alcohol-tax-revenue">alcohol taxes</a>. Even <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/lottery-revenue">lottery revenue has flattened out</a> after growing strongly for decades.</p>
<p>Increased spending combined with a reluctance to raise taxes has led to a push to find new sources of revenue. That <a href="https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/are-states-betting-sin-murky-future-state-taxation">makes sports betting an appealing</a> option to politicians.</p>
<h2>The statehouse always wins</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/march-madness-basketball-sports-betting-rcna143773">Billions of dollars are wagered</a> on sports each year. More than 90% of the money bet goes to paying out winning gamblers. Gambling operators keep the rest, which they share with the states. The percentage kept, called the hold rate, has been <a href="https://www.legalsportsreport.com/111012/analysis-2023-us-sports-betting-hold-trend/">steadily climbing over time</a>, with 2023’s <a href="https://www.americangaming.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/CY-2024_CGRT_v2.pdf">national average at 9.1%</a> of the money bet.</p>
<p>State governments now collect <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2024/02/legal-sports-betting.html">about half a billion dollars each quarter</a>, or about $2 billion a year, from sports gambling. That’s roughly one-fifth of that 9.1%.</p>
<p>If gamblers bet around $3 billion on March Madness, then states will pocket over $50 million dollars in extra revenue just from a three-week basketball tournament.</p>
<h2>The ugly side of sports betting</h2>
<p>Gambling is wonderful for state revenues and <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/39563784/sports-betting-industry-posts-record-11b-2023-revenue">gaming-company profits</a>. However, it has <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/gambling-addiction-million-white-paper-b2322452.html">a dark side</a>: While many people enjoy gambling, <a href="https://theconversation.com/millions-of-americans-are-problem-gamblers-so-why-do-so-few-people-ever-seek-treatment-197861">millions of Americans have a gambling problem</a>. </p>
<p>Studies suggest <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10899-014-9471-4">between 1% and 2%</a> of adults fall into this category. In Massachusetts, where I teach, a 2018 survey found that about 2% of adults were already problem gamblers, and <a href="https://www.umass.edu/seigma/sites/default/files/Seigma-GamblingHarm-Fact-Sheet-F2-2018%20copy.pdf">a further 8% were at risk</a>.</p>
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<p>Meanwhile, the number of calls to the <a href="https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/about-the-national-problem-gambling-helpline/">National Problem Gambling Helpline</a> lasting more than a minute <a href="https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/national.council.on.problem.gambling.ncpg/viz/NationalProblemGamblingHelplineDashboard-IncomingTraffic/IncomingTraffic">has increased sharply in recent years</a>. While this doesn’t mean that problem gambling has become more common – among other issues, correlation isn’t causation – the increase very closely matches the <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/u-s-sports-betting-here-is-where-all-50-states-currently-stand-on-legalizing-online-sports-betting-sites/">steady rollout of online sports betting</a> across the U.S.</p>
<h2>Two possible policy solutions</h2>
<p>Betting on sports was illegal before 2018. <a href="https://www.americangaming.org/illegal-sports-betting/">This forced gamblers</a> to either bet with a bookie or an offshore site. Betting with a bookie before 2018 was a relatively slow process. Gamblers typically needed to pay for their bets upfront with cash and ran the risk their bookie would be arrested or shut down.</p>
<p>Today, <a href="https://theconversation.com/sports-betting-how-in-play-betting-features-could-be-leading-to-harmful-gambling-new-research-177872">in-play or live betting</a> is legal and almost instantaneous. Bettors sitting on their couches at home can make multiple types of bets, such as which <a href="https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/bad-beat-kristap-porzingis-missed-layup-cost-a-man-76000-dallas-mavericks">player will make the first shot</a> in a basketball game. In business terms, sports gambling went from extreme friction to a completely <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/shephyken/2019/06/09/are-you-providing-a-frictionless-customer-experience">frictionless experience</a>.</p>
<p>To reduce the harms of sports betting, I propose two ways to reinject friction into the system. The first is to prevent <a href="https://www.forbes.com/advisor/credit-cards/sports-betting/">credit cards from being used for online gambling</a>. While not every state and bank allows credit cards to fund a sports betting account, many do. Those credit cards that allow it often treat gambling payments as a <a href="https://www.citizensbank.com/learning/what-is-a-cash-advance.aspx">cash advance, which is very costly</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/news/article/gambling-on-credit-cards-to-be-banned-from-april-2020">U.K. banned credit cards for remote gambling</a> in 2020, noting that people who used credit cards to gamble were <a href="https://consult.gamblingcommission.gov.uk/author/consultation-on-gambling-with-credit-cards/supporting_documents/Print%25252520the%25252520whole%25252520consultation%25252520%25252520gambling%25252520with%25252520credit%25252520cards.pdf">disproportionately likely to be problem gamblers</a>. <a href="https://ministers.dss.gov.au/media-releases/13411">Australia has also banned</a> online bets made with credit cards. A few U.S. states, <a href="https://www.wfmj.com/story/50551277/pa-lawmakers-introduce-bill-limiting-payment-options-for-online-gambling">such as Massachusetts and Tennessee</a>, have also instituted these sorts of bans, but most have not.</p>
<p>The second idea, which I prefer, is to <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/the-case-for-cash-a-counterpoint-to-cashless/id1464022779?i=1000634760222">revert to common practice before 2018</a> of using cash to bet. The idea is simple. Anyone with an online gambling account would need to prefund their account with cash. Winners would never have to stop gambling.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582643/original/file-20240318-16-qsxrnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bags of cash and printout of a March Madness schedule are seen on a police evidence table." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582643/original/file-20240318-16-qsxrnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582643/original/file-20240318-16-qsxrnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582643/original/file-20240318-16-qsxrnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582643/original/file-20240318-16-qsxrnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582643/original/file-20240318-16-qsxrnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582643/original/file-20240318-16-qsxrnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582643/original/file-20240318-16-qsxrnc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">In this 2006 file photo, the Brooklyn district attorney’s office presents evidence used to arrest 10 men in a sports betting ring. New Yorkers can now legally bet on March Madness.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/the-brooklyn-district-attorneys-office-presents-evidence-news-photo/526086920">Ramin Talaie/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Losers, however, would be forced to temporarily stop betting when their account runs out of money. Needing to take a break to go to a bank or simply pull money out of your wallet and hand it to someone would give people a chance to think about what they’re doing instead of being stuck in the <a href="https://dolby.io/blog/revolutionizing-microbetting-in-sports-with-real-time-streaming/">moment of a bet-bet-bet mindset</a>.</p>
<p>In theory, people could deposit cash into their accounts at any of the <a href="https://www.naspl.org/faq">roughly 223,000 locations across the country that sell lottery tickets</a>. To implement this idea, however, the federal government would need to change a law. <a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-26/chapter-I/subchapter-D/part-44">Since 1955</a>, it has imposed a <a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-26/chapter-I/subchapter-D/part-44/subpart-C/section-44.4411-1">special yearly tax of $50 on each person</a> who accepts bets for profit. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-26/chapter-I/subchapter-D/part-44/subpart-B/section-44.4402-1">The law</a> <a href="https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-tege/eotopice99.pdf">exempts charities and state lotteries</a>. This tax doesn’t raise much revenue already, <a href="https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes393019.htm">since so few people are subject</a> to it. It also reduces employment, as well as gambling companies’ interest in allowing in-person prefunding of accounts.</p>
<p>If you’re watching March Madness and betting on the tournament, I hope you win. But even if you don’t, at least your state government will.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/226092/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When the US Supreme Court legalized sports betting, states were quick to get in on the action. But as lawmakers grow reliant on taxes from betting, what do they owe problem gamblers?Jay L. Zagorsky, Associate Professor of Markets, Public Policy and Law, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2226722024-03-20T12:22:19Z2024-03-20T12:22:19Z40 years ago, the Supreme Court broke the NCAA’s lock on TV revenue, reshaping college sports to this day<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582552/original/file-20240318-18-t8ggbg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C0%2C2986%2C1980&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A cameraman films the Ohio State Buckeyes before a 2018 game.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/cameraman-for-the-big-ten-network-television-show-the-news-photo/915548694">Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Pac-12 is likely to be competing in its last March Madness, as realignment has <a href="https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2023-09-01/pac-12-obituary">pushed 10 of its schools to other conferences</a>. What led the most decorated conference in the NCAA to dissolve so quickly? </p>
<p>This surprising development arguably dates back to a decades-old court decision. As the NCAA prepared for its tournament regional basketball semifinals in March 1984, the Supreme Court heard opening arguments in a case, <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/463/1311">NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma</a>, that would change how Americans watch college sports.</p>
<p>After the court’s ruling, there were no limits on how much college football could be broadcast on TV, which previously was restricted to a <a href="https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/college/cowboys/2013/08/25/exploring-the-history-of-college-football-media-rights/60887384007/">maximum of six nationally broadcast games every two years</a>. The regionally focused conferences of the NCAA would become a national business, driven by television money from football. As a <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/ethnicstudies/people/core-faculty/jared-bahir-browsh">professor of critical sports studies</a>, I see the court ruling’s influence today with the downfall of the Pac-12.</p>
<h2>A history of televised college sports</h2>
<p>Even during TV’s experimental era of the 1930s, college sports were an attraction. The first televised college football game was <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/ncaa/article/2023-08-04/college-football-history-notable-firsts-and-milestones#:%7E:text=The%20first%20college%20football%20game%20on%20TV%20was%20between%20Fordham,NBC%20and%20aired%20on%20W2XBS.">broadcast in 1939</a>. By 1950, a few schools, including <a href="https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/01/penn-football-ncaa-television-controversy-1951">the University of Pennsylvania and Notre Dame</a>, had signed deals to air their football games regionally.</p>
<p>But that changed in 1951, when the NCAA took control of football television rights – and, in an effort to protect attendance at games, <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1951/01/13/84672687.html?login=smartlock&auth=login-smartlock&pageNumber=19">attempted to eliminate live TV broadcasts</a>. Some universities, unsurprisingly, weren’t thrilled with the news. Penn told the association it would continue airing games, but gave up when it was <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1951/11/20/87281672.html?pageNumber=27">threatened with sanctions</a>. </p>
<p>The NCAA eventually relented later that year, <a href="https://www.footballarchaeology.com/p/1951-and-college-footballs-first">allowing sold-out games to be shown on TV</a>. That led to the first coast-to-coast broadcast of a live sporting event, when Duke visited the University of Pittsburgh for a football game in September 1951.</p>
<p><a href="https://125.nd.edu/moments/small-screen-debut-1952-vs-oklahoma/">By 1952</a>, the NCAA allowed one national game to be broadcast each week, and in 1953, it allowed NBC to provide <a href="https://floridagators.com/news/2023/10/26/football-carters-corner-florida-georgia-game-a-TV-staple-70-years-after-small-screen-debut.aspx">“panorama” coverage of regional games</a>. In 1955, the NCAA acquiesced to pressure from conferences, including the Big Ten, and increased the availability of regional games, offering one national game for eight weeks and <a href="https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1955/03/15/83353580.html?pageNumber=35">regional games the other five weeks of the season</a>.</p>
<p>Throughout this time, the <a href="https://en.as.com/ncaa/the-reason-why-college-football-bowl-games-are-called-bowl-games-n/">bowl games</a> – such as the Rose Bowl, which started in 1902 as part of a holiday festival – remained independent of the NCAA’s policy. The exposure from these games proved to university administrators that televised college sports could be lucrative and boost applications.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582550/original/file-20240318-16-mvepy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="In a black-and-white image, an NBC cameraman is seen filming a Rose Bowl game in Pasadena, California, in 1970." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582550/original/file-20240318-16-mvepy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/582550/original/file-20240318-16-mvepy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582550/original/file-20240318-16-mvepy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582550/original/file-20240318-16-mvepy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=439&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582550/original/file-20240318-16-mvepy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582550/original/file-20240318-16-mvepy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/582550/original/file-20240318-16-mvepy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=552&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Rose Bowl was broadcast on TV in the early 1970s, when the NCAA severely restricted regular season broadcasts.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/camera-during-a-circa-1970s-rose-bowl-game-in-pasadena-news-photo/98749899">Robert Riger/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Tired of the restrictions on media exposure and revenue during the regular season, several universities got together in 1977 to form the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/08/23/sports/tv-issue-dividing-football-colleges.html">College Football Association</a> and challenge the NCAA’s control of television rights. Two years later, the CFA began negotiating a television contract with NBC – while the NCAA was <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VYmEb44o0U">in the midst of negotiations with CBS and ABC</a>. </p>
<p>The organizations were on a collision course. By 1981, the CFA <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/08/22/sports/rival-football-unit-approves-tv-pact.html">agreed to a contract with NBC</a>, and the NCAA declared that any CFA members who participated in the contract would be <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1981/08/22/sports/rival-football-unit-approves-tv-pact.html">sanctioned in all sponsored sports</a>. Two CFA member schools, the University of Oklahoma and the University of Georgia, immediately <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1983/83-271">filed suit to gain control of their television rights</a>.</p>
<h2>From the gridiron to the Supreme Court</h2>
<p>After both district and circuit courts ruled that the broadcast restrictions qualified as unfair restraint on the free market, the NCAA appealed to the Supreme Court. Oral arguments took place on March 20, 1984. By June, the court had ruled against the NCAA, allowing the CFA to oversee media contracts for its members. </p>
<p>By 1996, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1996/06/01/sports/college-football-its-power-eroding-cfa-will-disband.html">the major conferences broke from the CFA</a>, which ceased operations in 1997, and began negotiating on their own in an environment that now included a number of national and regional networks <a href="https://www.oklahoman.com/story/sports/college/cowboys/2013/08/25/exploring-the-history-of-college-football-media-rights/60887384007/">interested in broadcasting college football</a>. </p>
<p>In 1987, NCAA member schools also voted to allow conferences with two divisions of at least six teams to hold a conference championship that wouldn’t count against their game limit. This motivated conferences to gain control of their television rights and <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2014/05/16/conference-championship-games-rule-origin">leverage a championship game for more money</a>.</p>
<h2>A flood of money</h2>
<p>As conferences took control of their media rights, TV networks continued to pour money into college football and were soon joined by streaming services. The Big Ten alone commands over <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/19/sports/ncaafootball/big-ten-tv-deal-student-athletes.html">US$1 billion</a> in media rights, up from $10 million in 1996. </p>
<p>In addition to the conference media rights, the bowl games and College Football Playoff negotiated separate contracts – the latter of which was signed with ESPN in February 2024 for <a href="https://apnews.com/article/cfp-espn-34efc26e96a0596547b8b0dbcfb3287a">$1.3 billion a year</a> over six years. </p>
<p>This flood of money comes at a time when <a href="https://www.sportico.com/leagues/college-sports/2023/americans-favor-college-athletes-pay-harris-poll-1234734402/">67% of Americans</a> question the relationship between the NCAA, conferences, colleges and student-athletes. The NCAA has allowed athletes to profit from their <a href="https://www.ncaa.org/news/2021/6/30/ncaa-adopts-interim-name-image-and-likeness-policy.aspx">name, imagine and likeness since 2021</a>, after several states legalized the practice. The same year, NCAA initiated new rules <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2021/04/14/ncaa-transfers-rule-change-football-basketball">giving athletes more freedom to transfer</a>.</p>
<p>In spite of these changes, the NCAA faces several lawsuits that challenge the <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/39485414/nlrb-lawsuits-mounting-legal-challenges">nonemployee status of student-athletes</a>. Formerly regional conferences have become national businesses, and it’s becoming harder to argue that college athletes are amateurs as their talent brings in more and more revenue for schools. </p>
<h2>The Conference of Champions connection</h2>
<p>So, what does this have to do with the Pac-12 as it faces extinction? Everything. In 2022, the Big Ten negotiated a historic deal that would pay schools, including Pac-12 defectors University of Southern California and University of California Los Angeles, <a href="https://www.uscannenbergmedia.com/2022/09/13/the-big-ten-breakdown-how-uscs-move-to-the-big-ten-will-affect-the-school-the-fans-and-players-alike/#:%7E:text=In%202021%2C%20the%20average%20Pac,dollars%20annually%20from%20that%20deal.">between $80 million and $100 million a year from media rights</a>. </p>
<p>Even without the Los Angeles market, Pac-12 administrators tried to cash in, countering ESPN’s $30 million-a-school offer with <a href="https://arizonasports.com/story/3531384/big-12-yormark-brought-urgency-tv-deal-pac-12-didnt">one valued at $50 million a year</a>.</p>
<p>But ESPN quickly walked, and when the only deal on the table was a short-term one with Apple TV for just $25 million per school, eight more universities <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/11/pac-12-espn-media-rights-negotiations-50-million-ask-per-report">left for other conferences</a> offering more lucrative deals. This is why the conference with the most NCAA championships may not have another opportunity to add to its trophy case in 2025.</p>
<p>Although many people saw changes on the horizon, few could have imagined this much “madness” when the court ruled in favor of the University of Oklahoma back in 1984 The nearly 75-year television tug of war isn’t over, and the money it generates will continue to transform college sports. Money has seemingly toppled tradition, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2023-09-01/pac-12-obituary">as the Pac-12 schools walk away from 108 years of history</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222672/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared Bahir Browsh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>March Madness might look very different if not for the Supreme Court.Jared Bahir Browsh, Assistant Teaching Professor of Critical Sports Studies, University of Colorado BoulderLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2015402023-03-15T12:22:37Z2023-03-15T12:22:37ZWhat’s the carbon footprint of March Madness?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515313/original/file-20230314-5944-ntrn39.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=59%2C44%2C4937%2C3281&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The environmental cost of that ticket is high.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/SWACTexasSouthernGramblingBasketball/6c96a2568e5d4b989670515108337c53/photo?Query=march%20madness&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=16200&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/Butch Dill</a></span></figcaption></figure><figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515356/original/file-20230315-3349-rv145j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515356/original/file-20230315-3349-rv145j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515356/original/file-20230315-3349-rv145j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515356/original/file-20230315-3349-rv145j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=255&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515356/original/file-20230315-3349-rv145j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515356/original/file-20230315-3349-rv145j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515356/original/file-20230315-3349-rv145j.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=321&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
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<p>March Madness means 68 teams vying to become champion, Cinderella runs for a few underdogs and big business for the NCAA, which <a href="https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/ncaa-division-one-college-sports-march-madness-revenue-distribution-2023/">earns 85% of its annual operating budget</a> during the men’s basketball tournament. </p>
<p>But all of that comes at a tremendous cost: An estimated 463 million pounds (210 million kilograms) of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions are released into the atmosphere during the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/mml-official-bracket/2023-03-12/2023-ncaa-printable-bracket-schedule-march-madness">three-week event</a>. That’s similar to all the emissions of a large university – such as 2019 champion <a href="https://reports.aashe.org/institutions/university-of-virginia-va/report/2021-03-04/OP/air-climate/OP-2/">University of Virginia</a> – for an entire year. </p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/carbon-emissions-2586">These greenhouse gas emissions</a> warm the planet, contributing to heat waves, sea level rise and extreme weather. <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Carbon_dioxide_equivalent">Carbon dioxide equivalent</a> is a way of measuring the impact of several different greenhouse gases at once.</p>
<h2>Crunching carbon for large-scale event</h2>
<p>A colleague, <a href="https://jacoop.weebly.com/">Alex Cooper</a>, and I came up with this figure based on data for the 2019 NCAA Tournament. </p>
<p>Past research on the carbon footprint of sporting events has primarily focused on one-city events, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2008.12.006">Football Association Challenge Cup in the U.K.</a> and centralized events <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00696-5">like the Olympics</a>. Little prior research has sought to determine the environmental impact of a large-scale sporting event like the NCAA’s men’s basketball tournament. </p>
<p>In addition, when sports organizers do calculate and report emissions for their events, they typically only report <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.2019-0254">what happens at their facility</a> during the event. They don’t consider the environmental impact, for example, of travel to and from the event. </p>
<p>So, we wanted to know, what’s the carbon tally for a huge and <a href="https://www.economist.com/culture/2022/03/25/why-americans-are-consumed-by-basketballs-march-madness">popular event</a> like March Madness?</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128475">For our peer-reviewed study</a>, which was published in October 2021 in the Journal of Cleaner Production, we aimed to estimate the carbon emissions for all the activities that go into running a massive basketball tournament that takes place in multiple cities across the country in a short span of time. While our estimates are based on 2019, we believe that tournament-generated emissions are comparable to other years, including 2023.</p>
<p>We looked beyond facilities to consider team and fan flight and automobile travel, facility operations, food consumption, waste generation and lodging for everyone based on each team’s progression through the 2019 tournament. We used attendance estimates to determine the impact of <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/1813/70974">hotel stays</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2013.07.052">fan and team air</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2014.06.003">and automobile</a> travel, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14775085.2020.1726802">waste generation</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.054">food consumption</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/09613218.2014.896141">sport facility operations</a> to form our carbon emission model. </p>
<p>Based on our model, we found that this resulted in 463 million pounds of CO2 equivalent emissions. That’s about 1,100 pounds (499 kilograms) for every player, coach and fan who attends. That amount is the same as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-typical-passenger-vehicle">driving over 1,200 miles (1,930 kilometers) in a typical sedan</a>. </p>
<p>The biggest source of emissions by far was, as you might expect, fan and team travel, which accounted for about 79.95% of the total. The next-largest was hotel stays at 6.83%, followed by food at 6.37%, stadium operations at 5.9% and general waste at 0.95%.</p>
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<p>What surprised us most was that the category of travel as a share of the total was lower than in previous studies that analyzed the carbon footprint of sporting events. But that was primarily because, unlike in those other studies, we considered many other aspects of the event, such as lodging, food and waste.</p>
<h2>Ways to mitigate impact</h2>
<p>So what can the organizers of March Madness – or any tournament, really – do to reduce the carbon footprint? </p>
<p>Since travel makes up so much of that footprint, targeting emissions from long-distance travel, such as flights, may be one of the most effective ways to lower the event’s overall impact, as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.smr.2014.06.003">other researchers have noted</a>.</p>
<p>While travel can’t be completely eliminated for a tournament like the NCAA’s, organizers could consider more regional placements to reduce the distances fans and teams must travel. For example, in 2019, Mississippi State, Liberty, Virginia Tech, Saint Louis and Wisconsin all traveled to San Jose, California. The idea would be for more games to take place regionally to decrease travel distances. This would not only reduce carbon emissions but could also increase profits by making it easier for more fans to attend.</p>
<p>And when evaluating host cities and sites, the NCAA could consider local policies that encourage sustainable hotel operations. For example, during the 2019 tournament, California host sites had more <a href="https://hdl.handle.net/1813/70974">energy-efficient hotel operations</a>, thus reducing the second-highest contributor to overall emissions. The same could be said about selecting arenas and sport facilities that are energy efficient.</p>
<p>March Madness brings tremendous value and enjoyment to college basketball fans throughout the country. While its carbon footprint can never be eliminated, there are ways to reduce its overlooked environmental cost.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201540/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brian P. McCullough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>All those Cinderella stories, buzzer-beating finishes and wild cheering sections have a high price tag – for the climate.Brian P. McCullough, Associate Professor of Sport Management and Director, Center for Sport Management and Education and the Laboratory for Sustainability in Sport, Texas A&M UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2001432023-03-10T13:39:57Z2023-03-10T13:39:57ZAs March Madness looms, growth in legalized sports betting may pose a threat to college athletes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514515/original/file-20230309-121-7lawh0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C14%2C4977%2C2679&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Americans are expected to bet $167 billion on sports in 2029.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/businessman-holding-large-amount-of-bills-at-soccer-royalty-free-image/1166524604?phrase=sports%20betting&adppopup=true">Sutad Watthanakul via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>When <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2023-02-07/what-march-madness-ncaa-tournament-explained">March Madness</a> begins on <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-03-02/2023-march-madness-mens-ncaa-tournament-schedule-dates-times">March 14, 2023</a>, it’s a sure bet that millions of Americans will be making wagers on the annual college basketball tournament.</p>
<p>The American Gaming Association estimates that in 2022, 45 million people – or more than 17% of American adults – <a href="https://www.americangaming.org/resources/march-madness-2022/">planned to wager US$3.1 billion</a> on the NCAA tournament. That makes it one of the nation’s most popular sports betting events, alongside contests such as <a href="https://www.olbg.com/us/blogs/biggest-sports-betting-events">the Kentucky Derby and the Super Bowl</a>. By at least one estimate, March Madness is the <a href="https://www.goldengatecasino.com/blog/biggest-sporting-events-betting/">most popular betting target of all</a>. </p>
<p>While people have been <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-march-madness-gambling/">betting on March Madness for years</a>, one difference now is that betting on college sports is legal in many states. This is largely due to a 2018 Supreme Court ruling that <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/14/politics/sports-betting-ncaa-supreme-court/index.html">cleared the way</a> for each state to decide whether to permit people to gamble on sporting events. Prior to the ruling, legal sports betting was only allowed in Nevada. </p>
<p>Since the ruling, sports betting has grown dramatically. Currently, <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/u-s-sports-betting-heres-where-all-50-states-stand-on-legalizing-sports-gambling-usa-mobile-bets/">36 states allow</a> some form of legalized sports betting. And now, Georgia, Maine and Kentucky are <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/u-s-sports-betting-heres-where-all-50-states-stand-on-legalizing-sports-gambling-american-mobile-bets/">proposing legislation to make sports betting legal</a>.</p>
<p>About two weeks after sports betting became <a href="https://www.americangaming.org/research/state-gaming-map/">legal in Ohio on Jan. 1, 2023</a>, someone, disappointed by an unexpected <a href="https://www.si.com/college/2023/01/18/dayton-basketball-coach-anthony-grant-slams-gamblers-who-threaten-players">loss of the University of Dayton men’s basketball team</a> to Virginia Commonwealth University, <a href="https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/othercolleges/2023/01/18/dayton-coach-anthony-grant-sickened-by-sports-gambling-related-threats-directed-at-flyers-players/69817189007/">made threats</a> and <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/dayton-coach-anthony-grant-points-to-gambling-while-sharing-threatening-voicemail-he-received-225615341.html#:%7E:text=Grant%20erupted%20on%20certain%20Dayton,1.">left disparaging messages</a> against Dayton <a href="https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2023/01/19/-how-sports-betting-effects-college-athletes">athletes and the coaching staff</a>. </p>
<p>The Ohio case is by no means isolated. In 2019, a Babson College student who was a “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/05/30/sports-gambling-college-addison-chois-racist-death-threats-athletes/1284309001/">prolific sports gambler</a>” was <a href="https://www.justice.gov/usao-ma/pr/california-man-sentenced-sending-death-threats-dozens-professional-and-college-athletes">sentenced to 18 months in prison</a> for sending death threats to at least 45 professional and collegiate athletes in 2017.</p>
<p>Faculty members of <a href="https://miamioh.edu/aspire/muirgls/index.html">Miami University’s Institute for Responsible Gaming, Lottery, and Sports</a> are concerned that the increasing prevalence of sports betting could potentially lead to more such incidents, putting more athletes in danger of threats from disgruntled gamblers who blame them for their gambling losses.</p>
<p>The anticipated growth in sports gambling is quite sizable. Analysts estimate the market in the U.S. may reach <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/07/14/2479929/0/en/Sports-Betting-Market-Size-Is-Likely-to-Experience-a-Tremendous-Growth-of-USD-167-66-billion-by-2029-registering-a-CAGR-of-10-26-by-Size-and-Share-Industry-Growth-Regional-Outlook-.html">over US$167 billion by 2029</a>.</p>
<h2>Gambling makes inroads into colleges</h2>
<p>Concerns over college athletes being targeted by upset gamblers are not new. <a href="https://www.si.com/betting/2021/08/09/gambling-issue-the-athletes">Players</a> and <a href="https://www.covers.com/industry/massachusetts-player-union-athlete-protection-sports-betting-january-2023">sports organizations</a> have expressed worry that expanded gambling could lead to harassment and compromise their safety. Such concerns led the nation’s major sports organizations – MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL and NCAA – to <a href="https://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/8243013/ncaa-4-pro-leagues-sue-new-jersey-sports-betting">sue New Jersey in 2012</a> over a plan to initiate legal sports betting in that state. They argued that sports betting would make the public think that games were being thrown. Ultimately, the Supreme Court ruled that it was <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/14/politics/sports-betting-ncaa-supreme-court/index.html">up to states to decide</a> if they wanted to permit legal gambling.</p>
<p>Sports betting has also made inroads into America’s college campuses. Some universities, such as Louisiana State University and Michigan State University, have <a href="https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/articles/sports-betting-on-college-campuses-what-to-know">signed multimillion-dollar deals with casinos or gaming companies</a> to promote gambling on campus.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514531/original/file-20230309-26-vkd0po.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A girl looks excitedly at her cell phone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514531/original/file-20230309-26-vkd0po.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/514531/original/file-20230309-26-vkd0po.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514531/original/file-20230309-26-vkd0po.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514531/original/file-20230309-26-vkd0po.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514531/original/file-20230309-26-vkd0po.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514531/original/file-20230309-26-vkd0po.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/514531/original/file-20230309-26-vkd0po.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Sports betting has made inroads into colleges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/studio-portrait-of-happy-girl-reading-message-with-royalty-free-image/1371177390?phrase=college%20students%20betting%20on%20sports&adppopup=true">Wpadington via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Athletic conferences are also cashing in on the data related to these games and events. For instance, the Mid-Atlantic Conference <a href="https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/03/09/Marketing-and-Sponsorship/MAC-Genius.aspx">signed a lucrative five-year deal</a> in 2022 to provide real-time statistical event data to gambling companies, which then leverage the data to create real-time wager opportunities during sporting events.</p>
<p>As sports betting comes to colleges and universities, it means the schools will inevitably have to deal with some of the <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-sports-overlooked-gambling-issue-improprieties-being-ignored-as-betting-soars-nationwide/#:%7E:text=The%20NCAA%20continues%20to%20prohibit,some%20time%20to%20be%20refined.">negative aspects of gambling</a>. This potentially includes more than just gambling addiction. It could also involve the potential for student-athletes and coaches to become targets of threats, intimidation or bribes to influence the outcome of events.</p>
<p>The risk for addiction on campus is real. According to the National Council on Problem Gambling, over 2 million adults in the U.S. <a href="https://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/faq/">have a “serious” gambling problem</a>, and another 4 million to 6 million may have mild to moderate problems. One report estimates that <a href="https://www.usnews.com/education/best-colleges/articles/sports-betting-on-college-campuses-what-to-know">6% of college students have a serious gambling problem</a>.</p>
<h2>What can be done</h2>
<p>Colleges and universities don’t have to sit idly by as gambling grows.</p>
<p>Two faculty fellows at Miami University’s <a href="https://miamioh.edu/aspire/muirgls/index.html">Institute for Responsible Gaming, Lottery, and Sport</a> – former Ohio State Senator William Coley and Sharon Custer – recommend that regulators and policymakers work with colleges and universities to reduce the potential harm from the growth in legal gaming. Specifically, they recommend that each state regulatory authority:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Develop plans to coordinate between different governmental agencies to ensure that individuals found guilty of violations are sanctioned in other jurisdictions.</p></li>
<li><p>Dedicate some of the revenue from gaming to develop educational materials and support services for athletes and those around them.</p></li>
<li><p>Create anonymous tip lines to report threats, intimidation or influence, and fund an independent entity to respond to these reports.</p></li>
<li><p>Assess and protect athlete privacy. For instance, schools might decline to publish contact information for student-athletes and coaches in public directories.</p></li>
<li><p>Train athletes and those around them on basic privacy management. For instance, schools might advise athletes to not post on public social media outlets, especially if the post gives away their physical location.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The NCAA or athletic conferences could lead the development of resources, policies and sanctions that serve to educate, protect and support student-athletes and others around them who work at the schools for which they play. This will require significant investment to be comprehensive and effective.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/200143/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jason W. Osborne is affiliated with Miami University</span></em></p>As sports betting becomes more prevalent, so do the risks to college athletes, gaming experts argue.Jason W. Osborne, Professor of Statistics, Institute for Responsible Gaming, Lottery, and Sport, Miami UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1771252022-03-24T12:15:39Z2022-03-24T12:15:39ZMarch Madness stars can now cash in on endorsements – but some limits set by states and universities may still be unconstitutional<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453994/original/file-20220323-30834-1r5d3oi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=53%2C106%2C4347%2C2836&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Gonzaga forward Drew Timme's mustache – and his basketball skills – helped him earn an endorsement from Dollar Shave Club.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NCAAMemphisGonzagaBasketball/f8b7de5e82334dd09a8fb4d4d2ab2a5f/photo?Query=Drew%20Timme&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=841&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Craig Mitchelldyer</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March Madness is proving lucrative for some of its <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-is-the-media-buzz-from-a-march-madness-cinderella-run-worth-to-a-school-like-saint-peters-179742">Cinderella stories</a> and standout stars, thanks to a 2021 <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=18386472160721780784">Supreme Court ruling</a> that led the NCAA <a href="https://www.gfrlaw.com/what-we-do/insights/college-athletes-beat-ncaa-supreme-court-9-nil-allowing-endorsements">to end its longstanding ban</a> on student athletes earning money from endorsement deals. </p>
<p>Doug “Dougie Buckets” Edert, who led the Saint Peter’s Peacocks to their first ever Sweet 16 appearance <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket">on March 25, 2022</a>, has already <a href="https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2022/03/23/saint-peters-guard-signs-nil-deal-with-buffalo-wild-wings">signed deals</a> with <a href="https://twitter.com/FOS/status/1506628145910276101">Buffalo Wild Wings</a> and sports site <a href="https://twitter.com/FOS/status/1506634718321823757">Barstool</a>. Drew Timme, the mustachioed star forward at Gonzaga, <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/sky-limit-march-madness-stars-150148714.html">agreed to use his whiskers</a> to sell razors for Dollar Shave Club. And Deja Kelly, a star sophomore at the University of North Carolina, <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/02/16/sports/dunkin-signs-its-first-college-athletes-endorsement-deals/">became one of Dunkin’s’ first</a> college endorsements in February when she agreed to promote the brand’s doughnuts and coffee. </p>
<p>But the Supreme Court ruling doesn’t mean anything goes. The NCAA’s <a href="https://www.ncaa.org/news/2021/6/30/ncaa-adopts-interim-name-image-and-likeness-policy.aspx">new endorsement policy</a> simply pushes its authority over so-called name, image and likeness deals to universities and states. And many have established their own policies both regarding what deals college athletes can enter into and, perhaps more importantly, what deals college athletes can’t enter into. </p>
<p>At least 92 universities <a href="https://businessofcollegesports.com/tracker-nil-policies-by-institution">have created rules governing</a> what kinds of deals athletes can enter into. And 25 states <a href="https://businessofcollegesports.com/tracker-name-image-and-likeness-legislation-by-state/">have passed laws</a> or issued executive orders that affect all public and private schools under their jurisdiction. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kvBKEkUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">We study</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=NbVWe8cAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">the interaction</a> between sports and law. While many of these endorsement deal restrictions are innocuous, such as <a href="https://www.the33rdteam.com/nil-update-policy-breakdowns-for-the-five-states-that-begin-on-july-1/">requiring financial literacy classes</a>, we believe others may actually be unconstitutional.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A Black woman wearing a blue jersey jumps as she holds a basketball in her hands and prepares to shoot it over another woman's outstretched arm" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/454024/original/file-20220324-21-whgfve.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">UNC star Deja Kelly inked a deal to promote Dunkin’ doughnuts and coffee.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/NorthCarolinaNCStateBasketball/a7e8c121fa8243f29f3c34e090ebb237/photo?Query=Deja%20Kelly&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=41&currentItemNo=18">AP Photo/Karl B. DeBlaker</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Letting ‘amateurs’ profit from their name</h2>
<p>The NCAA <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/06/15/nil-ncaa-paying-college-athletes/">had long prohibited student athletes</a> from profiting off their image. The idea is grounded in the notion that they’re amateurs, not professionals. </p>
<p>Responding to growing calls to change the policy, the college sports governing body <a href="https://www.ncaa.org/news/2019/10/29/board-of-governors-starts-process-to-enhance-name-image-and-likeness-opportunities.aspx">agreed in 2019 to do so</a> and asked regional divisions to draft new rules and restrictions. Meanwhile, states, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/california-lawmakers-voted-to-let-ncaa-athletes-get-paid-its-unclear-whats-next/2019/09/10/80d0a324-d3e6-11e9-9343-40db57cf6abd_story.html">notably California</a>, were already passing laws to allow athletes to earn money off their names. </p>
<p>In June 2021, the Supreme Court <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=18386472160721780784">ruled the NCAA couldn’t limit the kinds</a> of benefits universities offer students. That prompted the NCAA to simply drop the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2020/11/13/ncaa-nil-name-image-likeness-proposal/6281507002/">draft policy</a> governing name, image and likeness deals it had been working on rather than risk further litigation. </p>
<p>In doing so, the NCAA left it up to states or individual universities to establish their own rules. That opened the door for college athletes across the country to begin signing endorsement deals – as long as they don’t run afoul of rules at their school or in their state.</p>
<p>While the NCAA <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=10849297194755368230">is considered a private entity</a> not bound by the First Amendment, states and public schools are. That means any restrictions they place on athletes’ endorsements – a form of commercial speech <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=16793921065105715309">afforded some protection by the Constitution</a> – need to respect athletes’ free speech rights. </p>
<h2>The most problematic restrictions</h2>
<p>Broadly speaking, we see three types of restrictions that appear problematic. The first type prevents deals with brands that are rivals of one that already has a deal with a university. The second group forbids contracts with “vice” industries like alcohol and gambling. And the third prohibits partnerships with anything that might reflect poorly on the educational institution. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://governor.ky.gov/attachments/20210624_Executive-Order_2021-418_Student-Athletes.pdf">2021 Kentucky executive order</a> is an example of the first kind. The governor’s order, <a href="https://www.lanereport.com/153350/2022/03/name-image-likeness-is-now-law-in-kentucky/">now codified into law</a>, explicitly allows athletes to get paid for likeness deals unless the university determines it “is in conflict with an existing contract of endorsement, promotional or other activity entered by the postsecondary educational institution.” In other words, if the school already had an endorsement deal with a company, an athlete can’t sign one with a rival.</p>
<p>For example, athletes at the University of Kentucky, which <a href="https://www.kentucky.com/news/local/education/article177171821.html">is sponsored by Nike</a>, legally can’t sign up for <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/adidas-announces-new-network-that-will-allow-more-than-50000-student-athletes-to-be-paid-ambassadors-.html">Adidas’ new program to share sales</a> of its products with student athletes who drive traffic to its website if Adidas wanted to open up this program to these athletes. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://wvusports.com/documents/2021/7/8//NIL_Policy_WVU_7_1_2021.pdf?id=21271">West Virginia University policy</a> illustrates the second restriction. The school’s guidelines, released on July 1, 2021, explicitly forbid athletes from deals associated with alcohol, gambling, banned substances, adult entertainment and other “vice” businesses. </p>
<p>The third kind poses what we believe are the most glaring First Amendment issues. An example of this is <a href="https://legiscan.com/MS/text/SB2313/id/2351829">Mississippi’s state law</a>, which flatly forbids athletes from signing deals with any product or service that is “reasonably considered to be inconsistent with the values or mission of a postsecondary educational institution or that negatively impacts or reflects adversely on a postsecondary education institution or its athletic programs.” </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young white man wearing a saint peter's basketball jersey uses a scissors to cut the net off of a basketball hoop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=83%2C0%2C4971%2C3258&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/453951/original/file-20220323-21-1ywo6oh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Doug Edert won an endorsement deal with Buffalo Wild Wings for his part in taking Saint Peter’s to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA college basketball tournament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/MAACMonmouthStPetersBasketball/046016718b57458db7fe7ccbf2be7281/photo?Query=Doug%20edert&mediaType=photo&sortBy=creationdatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=8&currentItemNo=6">AP Photo/Matt Rourke</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2 thorny legal issues</h2>
<p>Two legal concepts reveal the problems with these restrictions: “<a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/prior_restraint">prior restraint</a>” and “<a href="https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1005/overbreadth">overbreadth</a>.”</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=14051829728005364054">Courts</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=10240616562166401834">are</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=17571244799664973711">unanimous</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=5179591971825287612">in their</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=200006">disapproval</a> when government entities – <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=14594875101335864684">including public universities</a> – restrict speech before it happens, rather than punish speakers for objectionable and unprotected speech after it is made. </p>
<p>That’s why a prior restraint – like a policy that prevents athletes from signing certain types of endorsement deals - will be scrutinized more heavily by courts than if, say, a school simply forces an athlete to stop endorsing an objectionable product after the fact. While that doesn’t mean a prior restraint is never allowed, courts would require schools to show they have a very good reason to have the restriction.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=15763855873494372375">Courts also don’t like it</a> when restrictions on speech are written too broadly, meaning that they affect speech other than the intended target. In the university context, you can see this legal concept in action in campus speech codes. For example, a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=500746032283305681">1995 appellate court ruling struck down</a> a Michigan school’s campus speech code because it gave university officials too much power to determine what is deemed offensive – which meant they could hypothetically use the policy to restrict the most protected form of speech: political speech. </p>
<p>All three restrictions listed above could potentially be broad enough to cover political speech. But it’s the third category that poses the biggest problems because of the vagueness of language like “reasonably considered to be inconsistent with the values or mission of a postsecondary educational institution or that negatively impacts or reflects adversely on a postsecondary education institution or its athletic programs.” Virtually any endorsement an athlete might consider could be deemed “inconsistent” with the values of a university. </p>
<p>It’s not surprising that schools wouldn’t want to be linked to a provocative company or a product they consider inappropriate. But granting administrators too much editorial power over the kinds of deals athletes are allowed to sign can easily stray into the kinds of areas that the Constitution explicitly protects. And a promise to use the power responsibly <a href="https://scholar.google.com/scholar_case?case=12907128943316010890">is unlikely to survive Supreme Court scrutiny</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, you’re asking athletes to trade their First Amendment freedoms in exchange for their newfound right to profit from their skills on the field or court. In our view, the Supreme Court is unlikely to find that an acceptable trade-off.</p>
<p>[<em>Science, politics, religion or just plain interesting articles:</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-checkoutweekly">Check out The Conversation’s weekly newsletters</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>States and universities have passed many rules governing what types of name, image and likeness deals athletes can sign. Most are innocuous, but three may violate their First Amendment rights.Sam C. Ehrlich, Assistant Professor of Legal Studies, Boise State UniversityNeal Ternes, Assistant Professor, Arkansas State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1797422022-03-24T12:12:52Z2022-03-24T12:12:52ZHow much is the media buzz from a March Madness Cinderella run worth to a school like Saint Peter’s?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453879/original/file-20220323-23-3vc3bl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=246%2C14%2C3919%2C3114&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Saint Peter's guard Doug Edert celebrates during the team's upset win over Kentucky.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/saint-peters-peacocks-guard-doug-edert-celebrates-after-a-news-photo/1239283418?adppopup=true">Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Few people outside Jersey City had heard of the No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s Peacocks before <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/recap/_/gameId/401408578">they upset No. 2 seed Kentucky</a> in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.</p>
<p>Two days later, Saint Peter’s <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/recap?gameId=401408609">beat No. 7 seed Murray State</a> to advance to the <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2022-ncaa-tournament-bracket-sweet-16-predictions-march-madness-round-by-round-picks-from-advanced-model/">Sweet 16</a> and become the darlings of the men’s college basketball world. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski even suggested that the national media attention <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/coach-k-saint-peters-cinderella-run-will-translate-to-tens-of-millions-of-dollars-for-the-n-j-school/">could be worth tens of millions of dollars</a> to the small New Jersey school. </p>
<p>In 2020, <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fdx8uMoAAAAJ&hl=en">I</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1527002520944437">published a study</a> with economists Trevor Collier, Kurt Rotthoff and Alaina Baker that explored the value of unexpected NCAA basketball tournament runs.</p>
<p>Coach K’s forecast is a bit bullish. But we were able to show that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_media">earned media</a> from a Cinderella run does boost enrollment, which has a tangible financial benefit. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1504634900875550723"}"></div></p>
<p>Basketball fans tend to know one when they see it, but what exactly is a <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-03-01/11-greatest-march-madness-cinderella-stories">Cinderella team</a>?</p>
<p>Notable examples include No. 10 seed Davidson, led by Stephen Curry, <a href="https://www.sportscasting.com/ncaa-tournament-reliving-stephen-currys-elite-eight-run-with-davidson-2008/">making the Elite Eight in 2008</a>; <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-03-05/remember-butlers-incredible-2010-ncaa-run">No. 5 seed Butler’s run to the national championship game</a> in 2010; and No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast <a href="https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2013/story/_/id/9094654/2013-ncaa-tournament-florida-gulf-coast-eagles-make-history-reaching-sweet-16">dunking its way to the Sweet 16 in 2013</a>. </p>
<p>We studied teams in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament from 1985 to 2017. During this period, there were 57 instances of Cinderella runs by 52 different schools. </p>
<p>We defined Cinderella schools as teams that won at least two games, excluding <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2022-03-15/first-four-ncaa-tournament-ultimate-guide">play-in games</a>; did not enter as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed; and were dubbed a “Cinderella” or something similar by the media. Our results were consistent even when using slight variations of these criteria.</p>
<p>We found that private schools, such as <a href="https://www.niche.com/colleges/saint-peters-university/">Saint Peter’s</a>, experience the largest gains, with an average increase in freshman enrollment of 4.4% two years after a Cinderella run. Furthermore, student quality – as measured by SAT scores – doesn’t decline with this added enrollment.</p>
<p>The national media coverage following unexpected tournament success generates large spikes in Google search trends by curious viewers, which, of course, include prospective students. The sudden attention and interest are basically a form of free advertising.</p>
<p><iframe id="uiohe" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/uiohe/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Using data from <a href="https://petersonsdata.com/undergraduate-institutional-data/">Peterson’s Undergraduate Database</a>, we estimated that a 4.4% increase over the typical entering class at a private college is worth approximately US$9 million in additional revenue from tuition and room and board over the course of four years.</p>
<p>Saint Peter’s, however, has a much smaller entering class than that of a typical private school – its student body includes only <a href="https://www.saintpeters.edu/about/facts-stats/">2,000 undergraduates</a>. Kurt Rotthoff, one of the co-authors of our study, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/karenweaver/2022/03/21/cinderella-runs-like-saint-peters-can-impact-a-universitys-bottom-line-just-not-as-much-as-you-think/?sh=1e1871281d22">recently calculated</a> that the team’s current run would amount to around $3.2 million over four years.</p>
<p><a href="https://jarenpope.weebly.com/uploads/2/9/7/3/29731963/2009_pope_pope_sej.pdf">Other studies</a> have also found an increase in applications following success in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177%2F1527002512445569">primarily due to heightened media attention</a>. </p>
<p>While there’s some debate over <a href="https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/aphe/vol1/iss1/1/">whether college athletics supports the academic mission</a> of schools, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/video/heros-welcome-for-saint-peters-university-mens-basketball-team/">Saint Peter’s is reveling in the moment</a>. And aside from excitement for students, alumni and fans, the university can expect to see returns in the form of increased enrollment over the next couple of years, thanks to the attention being showered on their men’s basketball team.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Haskell was a student-athlete (women's soccer) at Davidson College during the Elite Eight run in 2008.</span></em></p>A recent study found that an unexpected run in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament can boost enrollment.Nancy Haskell, Assistant Professor of Economics, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1790822022-03-22T12:16:35Z2022-03-22T12:16:35ZThe ‘hot hand’ is a real basketball phenomenon – but only some players have the ability to go on these basket-making streaks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/453118/original/file-20220318-19-gfjkk4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=233%2C0%2C5748%2C3161&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kevin Durant is one of the NBA players who shows the ability to go on hot streaks.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/KnicksNetsBasketball/e57ce0bc5e624b1ea17f1892fd47d63b/photo?Query=kevin%20durant&mediaType=photo&sortBy=&dateRange=now-14d&totalCount=59&currentItemNo=2">AP Photo/Seth Wenig</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March Madness is here, and basketball fans are making predictions: Who will be the <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-03-01/11-greatest-march-madness-cinderella-stories">Cinderella story of the college tournament</a>? Which teams will make a run to the Final Four? And of course, which player is going to get “hot” and carry their team to a championship?</p>
<p>To say a player is “hot” or has “hot hands” means the player is on a streak of making many consecutive shots. A question that has dogged researchers, coaches and fans for years is whether players on these streaks can defy random chance, or if hot hands are just an illusion and fit within statistical norms.</p>
<p>We are two researchers who study <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mVj8o7gAAAAJ&hl=en">information sciences</a> and <a href="https://kelley.iu.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/profile.html?id=WINSTON">operations and decision technologies</a>. In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261890">our recent study</a>, we examined whether players can indeed get hot in actual live-game situations. Our analysis showed that some players do get consistently “hot” during games and make more shots than expected following two shots made consecutively. However, when we looked at all players together, we found that usually when a player makes more shots than normal after making consecutive shots, they are likely to revert toward the shooting average by missing the next one. Hot hands do exist, but they are rare.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/N3X8qQUXAI0?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">When players get hot, they are a force to be reckoned with on a basketball court.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The science of going on a streak</h2>
<p>Fans have always believed in the ability of players to go on a hot streak – as reflected in video games like <a href="https://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2013/11/25/why-on-fire-lives-on-20-years-after-nba-jam">NBA Jam where the virtual ball would catch fire</a> if a player made multiple shots in a row. But academics have been skeptical of the idea ever since a 1985 study concluded that what people perceive as hot hands is nothing more than the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6">human brain’s tendency to misunderstand chance and averages.</a></p>
<p>This changed in 2017 when a seminal paper showed that the original study – and the later ones based on it – <a href="https://theconversation.com/momentum-isnt-magic-vindicating-the-hot-hand-with-the-mathematics-of-streaks-74786">suffered from small but significant selection bias</a> that threw off the statistical calculations. Basically, the way the team chose which shots to look at when searching for streaks or a hot hand threw the math itself off. When researchers accounted for this bias, the hot hand turned out to be real. </p>
<p>The vast majority of studies on hot streaks in basketball have focused on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6">either free throws</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103771">three-point contests</a> or <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2450479">controlled field experiments</a>. We wanted to test the theory in actual competitive games and used data from the 2013-14 and 2014-15 NBA seasons. But in actual game situations, shots are not identical. To control for this, we <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261890">developed a model that predicts how often a shot will go in</a> based on a number of different factors. These included who the shooter was, the distance from the basket, the type of shot, the distance from the closest defender, who the closest defender was, whether the shot was assisted and other considerations. It is only thanks to the modern, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nfl-joins-the-data-revolution-in-sports-64717">data-driven era of sports</a> that we could even do such an analysis.</p>
<p>Using this model, we were able to simulate any shot by flipping a figurative coin that represents the probability any particular shot will go in. We could then quantify the hot hand effect by comparing the real world field goal percentage of a player after they were on a streak with the expected percentage obtained through simulating the same shots in our model.</p>
<p>For example, imagine that in the real world a player made 55% of shots after making the two shots before. But our model only predicted he would hit 46% of shots after making the two shots before. If this difference between the model prediction and the real world is statistically significant over time, then it is <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261890">good evidence that the player can get hot and go on streaks</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="lgLuM" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/lgLuM/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Who has the hot hand?</h2>
<p>Our analysis looked at 153 players who took at least 1,000 shots during the 2013-14 and 2014-15 NBA seasons. We examined shots taken after two, three and four consecutively made shots.</p>
<p>When looking at the shots from all the qualified players, we found that if a person made the two shots prior, their chance of making the next shot was 1.9% percentage lower than the model predicted – their make rate would regress to the mean. </p>
<p>However, when we looked at players individually, the hot hand emerged for a sizable set of players. Specifically, there were 30 players who exhibited a statistically significant higher field goal percentage on a shot following two makes compared to their expected field goal percentage. Of the players who demonstrated the ability to go on hot streaks, the average hot hand effect led to a 2.71% increase in the chance of making a third shot in a row.</p>
<p>For streaks of three and four consecutively made shots, the hot hand effect was even higher – 4.42% on average and 5.81% on average, respectively.</p>
<h2>Why do some people get hot?</h2>
<p>It’s important to note that having a hot hand does not mean any player can suddenly make baskets from anywhere on the court. For example, Tim Duncan, Roy Hibbert and Marcin Gortat all showed the ability to go on hot streaks, but these are all centers who do not typically take shots far from the basket. Their hot hands increased their shooting percentages of close-range shots. This led us to the hypothesis that part of the hot hand effect may come from what is called the <a href="https://joshkaufman.net/explore-exploit/">explore and exploit approach</a>, which refers to a short period of exploring different approaches to solving a problem followed by a period of exploiting the best approach found. For basketball, this would look like a player finding a mismatch during a game – perhaps a shorter player defending them than normal – and exploiting it by taking more of a certain type of shot. Research has also suggested that the explore and exploit approach is connected to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-25477-8">streaks of success in artistic and scientific careers</a>. </p>
<p>While this hypothesis is plausible, it may not be the only factor accounting for hot streaks. Could short-term neuroplasticity – the ability of a player’s brain to quickly adapt to conditions in a game – be a cause? What about focus and mental preparation? Whatever the reason, our study provides strong evidence that supports the existence of hot hands. For coaches and players in the NBA or in this year’s NCAA March Madness, it might be a good strategy to follow the old cliche: “Go with the hot hand.”</p>
<p>[<em>The Conversation’s science, health and technology editors pick their favorite stories.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=science&source=inline-science-favorite">Weekly on Wednesdays</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179082/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A study shows that a select group of NBA players really do go on hot streaks by making more shots in a row than statistics suggest they should.Konstantinos Pelechrinis, Associate Professor of Computing and Information, University of PittsburghWayne Winston, Professor of Decision and Information Systems, Indiana UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1298922020-01-15T21:15:35Z2020-01-15T21:15:35ZHow sports fans respond to their teams’ wavering odds of winning<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310301/original/file-20200115-134789-7ktvcg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3484%2C2668&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes celebrates after his team won the NFL divisional playoff football game against the Houston Texans on Jan. 12, 2020.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Charlie Riedel</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The most diehard NFL fans have already seen their seasons come to an end. This has nothing to do with whether their hometown team made the playoffs and everything to do with the annual exercise in humility known as fantasy football.</p>
<p>Fantasy sport plays by its <a href="https://www.britannica.com/sports/fantasy-sport">own set of rules</a>, promoting armchair quarterbacks to managers in charge of their own virtual teams. Managers cobble together about a dozen players from different real teams (Carolina’s quarterback, Green Bay’s tight end) and pit them against squads helmed by other managers. Whichever team scores more collective points wins the weekly battle.</p>
<p>I drafted my first team when the <a href="https://fftoday.com/rankings/index.html">fantasy-sports tech revolution</a> was already well underway. A few clicks and keystrokes and voila: Pabst Interference was born. </p>
<p>Hosting sites like ESPN and Yahoo have long passed troves of data through proprietary equations to make predictions about which players will have boom or bust weeks. I happily took the advice, starting the winners and benching the losers. I was god to 10 men who didn’t know I existed. </p>
<p>As the first games kicked off, two bold-font numbers ran across the top of my screen: my predicted score and my opponent’s predicted score.</p>
<h2>Analytics 2.0</h2>
<p>As with helmets and trick plays, fantasy analytics have only become more complex. Sites still list those predicted final scores, but top billing goes to a new statistic: an ever-changing estimate of the probability that I’ll beat the other guy.</p>
<p>The initial prediction told a static story (projection: 85.38 points, win odds: 62 per cent) but it now takes dynamic shape, as live updates to one figure have an impact on the other. If your wide receiver shakes off three defenders en route to the end zone, his predicted score rises and boosts your likelihood of winning the week; if your running back fumbles, his projection and your likelihood of victory tumble in turn.</p>
<p>Sundays, then, are spent watching win probabilities bounce around like an errant onside kick. This made me and my colleague <a href="https://wsb.wisc.edu/directory/faculty/evan-polman">Evan Polman</a>, an associate professor of marketing at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, wonder about how people interpret predictions that change.</p>
<p>If a botched play brings your previously sky-high odds back down to Earth, do you feel worse about your team than if your odds had previously been in the gutter, but then rose to stand a fighting chance?</p>
<p><a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2016-28471-001">To test</a> this, we spent a week in 2014 schlepping up and down State Street in Madison, talking to anyone in a sports bar who would listen to us. There are more than a few there.</p>
<h2>Two versions of the same lie</h2>
<p>Without a hockey team to call their own, people in Madison root for the Chicago Blackhawks, who were at the time in the quarter finals for the Stanley Cup.</p>
<p>Bending the truth so slightly that we hoped they wouldn’t notice, we told people two versions of a similar lie. Half heard that the odds of the Blackhawks advancing to the finals had gone up to 20 per cent from 10 per cent, while the other half heard that those odds had fallen to 20 per cent from 30 per cent. Neither was true but, thankfully, nobody fact-checked us.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310299/original/file-20200115-134784-23hyz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310299/original/file-20200115-134784-23hyz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310299/original/file-20200115-134784-23hyz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310299/original/file-20200115-134784-23hyz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=306&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310299/original/file-20200115-134784-23hyz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310299/original/file-20200115-134784-23hyz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310299/original/file-20200115-134784-23hyz0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Chicago Blackhawks and the Los Angeles Kings square off during the Western Conference finals in the Stanley Cup playoffs in May 2014.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the probability of victory was said to have risen, people braced themselves for success and bigger bar tabs — even though everyone had the same 20 per cent as the best estimate to go on. Evidently, things just feel more likely when they’re <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2015-45545-003">on the rise</a>.</p>
<h2>Odds on the move</h2>
<p>The setup of our experiment dates it. Armed with only a clipboard and some paper and pencils, we gave people just a single change. Nowadays, a fantasy team’s odds never stop updating until the last down of the week, with their managers always only a screen-refresh away from checking in on their up-to-the-millisecond chances.</p>
<p>Of course, none of this is unique to fantasy football. If modern forecasting can crunch the stats to make an educated guess for my unique team, it just as easily and quickly spits out evolving odds for matchups waged between any two real teams.</p>
<p>Looking forward to the Super Bowl, March Madness, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dc-sports-bog/wp/2017/04/23/why-espn-uses-those-in-game-win-probability-stats-that-drive-some-baseball-fans-nuts/">baseball</a> and beyond, these predictions give us algorithmically based licence to mentally experience not just the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat but both — and in rapid succession and reversion.</p>
<p>With eyes on the latest odds, fans get to keep one foot in the world of the winners and the other with the losers, revelling in the highs and lows of each. If a game might drain your bank account or bust your bracket, it can at least keep your <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-the-ncaa-tournament-excitement-index/">heart rate</a> up.</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129892/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sam Maglio receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.</span></em></p>Watching the chances of victory change injects life into sports, both real and fantasy.Sam Maglio, Associate Professor of Marketing and Psychology, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1138932019-03-29T10:45:04Z2019-03-29T10:45:04ZData reveals the value of an assist in basketball<p>A player drives to the basket. As the defense collapses, he passes the ball to his teammate, anchored at the corner, for the open three-point shot. </p>
<p>This corner shot is <a href="https://shottracker.com/articles/the-3-point-revolution">one of the most efficient shots in basketball</a>, as measured through the expected points per shot. It’s second only to shots at the rim, followed by three-point shots above the break – that is, the location on the court where the three-point line <a href="https://jr.nba.com/how-to-read-a-shot-chart/">changes from arc to a straight line</a>.</p>
<p>Thanks to data like this, teams now distribute their shots in a different way than they did a decade ago. Three-point shots and shots around the rim are on the rise, while midrange attempts are declining. The media refers to this shift as <a href="https://www.theringer.com/2016/12/8/16076984/under-the-influence-of-moreyball-1ea4ba34b85c">“Moreyball”</a> after Daryl Morey, the Rockets’ general manager, who has been recognized as the pioneer for this trend. </p>
<figure>
<img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/538/ezgif.com-video-to-gif.gif?1553519556">
<figcaption>
A typical ‘drive and kick’ corner three-point shot. Konstantinos Pelechrinis, CC-BY-ND
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking beyond shot distance</h2>
<p>Why are corner three-point shots more efficient compared to the ones above the break? A common misconception among fans, media and even analysts is that this is solely due to <a href="https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2146753-whos-responsible-for-the-nbas-corner-three-revolution">the shorter distance from the basket</a>. While distance certainly plays a role, it cannot explain the degree of discrepancy in the data. </p>
<p>To understand better what is going on, I looked at <a href="https://github.com/hwchase17/sportvu">a detailed data set</a> of shots from the 2013-14 and 2014-15 NBA seasons. I estimated, through a simple <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_regression">logistic regression model</a>, the expected difference in the field goal percentage – that is, the success rate – for corner and above-the-break three-point shots, based on their average distance from the basket. </p>
<p>While the model expects a slight difference of about 1.5 percent, it is not as high as the 4 percent I saw in the data.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265948/original/file-20190326-36276-1g14nab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265948/original/file-20190326-36276-1g14nab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265948/original/file-20190326-36276-1g14nab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265948/original/file-20190326-36276-1g14nab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265948/original/file-20190326-36276-1g14nab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=416&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265948/original/file-20190326-36276-1g14nab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265948/original/file-20190326-36276-1g14nab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265948/original/file-20190326-36276-1g14nab.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=523&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Corner threes are more open compared to above-the-break threes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Konstantinos Pelechrinis</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>So what is going on? Of course, models are simplifications of reality. But there is another important difference between the two types of three-point shots: the distance to the closest defender. Corner three-pointers are on average more open as compared to above-the-break three-pointers, making them higher-quality shots. </p>
<p>Why though? Because of assists. Assisted shots are, on average, more open compared to unassisted shots. More than 90 percent of corner three-point shots are assisted, while shots above the break are assisted at a rate just above 70 percent. Midrange shots are assisted at an even lower rate, not helping their case for efficiency. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265971/original/file-20190326-36248-1ytm165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265971/original/file-20190326-36248-1ytm165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265971/original/file-20190326-36248-1ytm165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265971/original/file-20190326-36248-1ytm165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265971/original/file-20190326-36248-1ytm165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265971/original/file-20190326-36248-1ytm165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265971/original/file-20190326-36248-1ytm165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265971/original/file-20190326-36248-1ytm165.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Percentage of assisted shots from the different court zones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Konstantinos Pelechrinis</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Previously, in what resembles a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_experiment">natural experiment</a>, I performed <a href="https://412sportsanalytics.wordpress.com/2017/11/22/offensive-and-defensive-efficiency-in-basketball-champions-league/">the same analysis</a> on an International Basketball Federation competition, <a href="https://proformancehoops.com/basketball-court-dimensions">where the distance to the basket is almost the same over the whole three-point range</a>. The same pattern emerged. Corner three-point shots were more efficient – and were assisted at a much higher rate.</p>
<p><iframe id="eR22f" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/eR22f/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Using these results, one can start estimating the expected contribution of an assist to a shot. For example, an assist to a left corner three-point shot increases the league-average field goal percentage to 38.7 percent from the 34.9 percent for an unassisted shot from the same zone. This corresponds to +0.114 expected points per left corner three-point shot, when assisted. </p>
<p>During the seasons covered in the data set I used, the teams took on average approximately 82 shots per game, half of which were assisted. On average, an assisted shot added 0.16 expected points more compared to an unassisted shot. If teams looked for the extra pass on 15 of their unassisted shots, this corresponds to approximately 2.4 additional expected points over the course of the game, <a href="https://www.onlinebetting.com/basketball-betting/home-court/">enough to neutralize the home field advantage in the NBA</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265972/original/file-20190326-36248-1pyp0dl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265972/original/file-20190326-36248-1pyp0dl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265972/original/file-20190326-36248-1pyp0dl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265972/original/file-20190326-36248-1pyp0dl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265972/original/file-20190326-36248-1pyp0dl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265972/original/file-20190326-36248-1pyp0dl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265972/original/file-20190326-36248-1pyp0dl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265972/original/file-20190326-36248-1pyp0dl.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Expected points added per assisted shot for different court zones.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Konstantinos Pelechrinis</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Assisting STEM education</h2>
<p>A large part of <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=mVj8o7gAAAAJ&hl=en">my sports research</a> revolves around analyzing spatio-temporal data. The availability of such detailed data is, quite literally, changing the game. While simple statistics can provide valuable insights, more complex models now drive applications that sports practitioners and researchers could not even think of 10 years ago. </p>
<p>For instance, my colleagues and I have developed <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.08081">Deep Hoops</a>, a system that is able to evaluate micro-actions – such as screens and off-ball cuts – to holistically evaluate a player’s contributions to winning. Other researchers have developed <a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/1006.pdf">systems</a> that allow a coach to anticipate the reaction of a defense to a specific offensive scheme. </p>
<p>Most importantly, though, I believe that sports offer a great vehicle through which educators can provide data literacy to younger generations. In <a href="http://www.pitt.edu/%7Ekpele/moneyballv2.html">my personal teaching experience</a>, students associate better and engage more with technically challenging concepts when they are introduced through sports, as compared to abstract settings. This is particularly crucial for introductory courses, which <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/341/6153/1455">are very important</a> for <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/08/12/study-finds-choice-major-most-influenced-quality-intro-professor">attracting students to a major</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113893/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Konstantinos Pelechrinis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Why are three-pointer shots from the corner more efficient than the ones above the break? The answer: More than 90 percent of corner three-point shots are assisted.Konstantinos Pelechrinis, Associate Professor of Computing and Information, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1139722019-03-21T16:36:52Z2019-03-21T16:36:52ZMarch Madness: With gambling legal in eight states, who really wins?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265152/original/file-20190321-93039-fjdvzz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The odds of more legal betting are good. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Sports-Gambling-Fighting-the-Fix/019cd6deda78476b8451af5bbc2f31e3/5/0">AP Photo/John Locher</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March means springtime, but also breathless headlines of Cinderellas, busted brackets and buzzer beaters. </p>
<p>This year, it’ll also include talk of “sharps,” “handles” and “point spreads,” as millions more Americans are able to openly wager for the first time on March Madness – the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. That’s thanks to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/14/us/politics/supreme-court-sports-betting-new-jersey.html">U.S. Supreme Court ruling</a> that allowed states to legalize sports betting. </p>
<p>As a <a href="https://bellisario.psu.edu/people/individual/john-affleck">sports journalism professor</a>, I’ve been following the evolution of sports gambling for several years – back to a time when it was portrayed as a revolutionary and scary moment for fans and teams alike. </p>
<p>With millions more Americans gambling legally, it’s no longer scary, but that doesn’t mean some officials and observers aren’t concerned about perils in its rapid growth.</p>
<h2>The legal bandwagon</h2>
<p>Most tournament gambling is still illegal, but that’s changing quickly.</p>
<p>According to a survey conducted by Morning Consult for the American Gaming Association, <a href="https://www.americangaming.org/new/americans-will-wager-8-5-billion-on-march-madness/">47 million adults in the United State will wager US$8.5 billion</a> on March Madness this year, including 4.1 million who will do so for the first time at a casino sportsbook or online using a legal app. The rest of the bets, including the tens of millions made in office pools around the country, will be illegal. </p>
<p>Yes, you heard that right. <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/18/march-madness-illegal-pools_n_6889520.html">Your office pool is most likely illegal</a>.</p>
<p>Last year, the American Gaming Association <a href="https://www.americangaming.org/new/97-of-expected-10-billion-wagered-on-march-madness-to-be-bet-illegally/">estimated that $10 billion was at stake</a>, but the calculation method has since changed. We do know that 97 percent of the action was illegal, including office pools. Nevada accounted for the legal betting.</p>
<p>Now, as is the case in situations with state-by-state legislation, <a href="https://www.actionnetwork.com/education/ncaa-tournament-legal-sports-betting-states-march-madness-2019">the rules vary</a> from place to place. </p>
<p>Early adopter New Jersey has both casinos and online apps ready to take bets. Pennsylvania, meanwhile, now has several brick-and-mortar sportsbooks, but legal online betting is still a few months away. With just six betting locations open last month, Pennsylvania’s combined handle – the total of all sports wagering – <a href="https://gamingcontrolboard.pa.gov/?pr=844">was about $31.5 million</a>, generating tax revenue of about $700,000. Most of that went to the state. </p>
<p>It’s early, but “we know it’ll be busy and there’ll be a bump” in action this month because of March Madness, Doug Harbach, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board told me in an interview. Two new locations for sports betting just opened, a sign of how quickly gambling is spreading.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, not much can stop bettors from putting money down on illegal online gambling sites outside the United States, and the American Gaming Association <a href="https://pictures.reuters.com/CS.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&VBID=2C0FCIH9Q79PQ&SMLS=1&RW=1264&RH=744&POPUPPN=2&POPUPIID=2C0FQEQL3LKWJ">estimates</a> 5.2 million Americans will do exactly that over the next few weeks. It’s the way many gamblers have put money down in previous years. Though illegal, enforcement has been light. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265155/original/file-20190321-93044-1jhw1jp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/265155/original/file-20190321-93044-1jhw1jp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265155/original/file-20190321-93044-1jhw1jp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265155/original/file-20190321-93044-1jhw1jp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265155/original/file-20190321-93044-1jhw1jp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265155/original/file-20190321-93044-1jhw1jp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/265155/original/file-20190321-93044-1jhw1jp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most March Madness gamblers predict Duke will win the 2019 tournament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/APTOPIX-NCAA-Duke-Wisconsin-Final-Four-Basketball/38ca92b802594e87b426f5b4aca19d08/74/0">AP Photo/David J. Phillip</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Addiction and integrity</h2>
<p>Anti-gambling advocates say what hasn’t changed is the long-term impact on addiction, which is likely to rise in years to come as legal sports betting becomes more widespread. </p>
<p>Asked whether states adopting legalized sports wagering are doing enough to also combat gambling addiction, Keith Whyte, executive director of the
<a href="https://www.ncpgambling.org/">National Council on Problem Gambling</a>, said: “Not really.” He also noted that, while gambling addiction doesn’t seem to have spiked in the past year, the negative effects of sports gambling will show up down the road.</p>
<p>Some states, like New Jersey, adopted the <a href="http://www.ncpgambling.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Responsible-Gaming-Principles-for-Sports-Gambling-Legislation.pdf">council’s recommendations</a> for minimizing harm from legal gambling, such as dedicated funds to prevent and treat addition and establishing a minimum age, while most have only enacted a few safeguards. </p>
<p>For its part, the NCAA <a href="https://www.apnews.com/66e15b3a43ef49619c57467cecda0b8c">has come out against</a> legalized sports gambling. </p>
<p>“Sports wagering is going to have a dramatic impact on everything we do in college sports,” NCAA President Mark Emmert said <a href="https://apnews.com/7d62e621e8dd4c3bb1edfc54363c40c6?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_medium=AP_Sports">at the group’s national convention in January</a>. “It’s going to threaten the integrity of college sports in many ways unless we are willing to act boldly and strongly.”</p>
<h2>Gamblers win</h2>
<p>But there’s little the NCAA can do about it. More legal sports betting is on its way – though the office pool will presumably still be a no-no. </p>
<p>Joni Comstock, senior vice president of championships at the NCAA, <a href="https://www.apnews.com/66e15b3a43ef49619c57467cecda0b8c">estimates</a> that 30 states could have legal gambling within a couple of years. </p>
<p>As for who’s the favorite of gamblers and the more than 40 million Americans who were expected to fill out brackets, 29 percent apparently picked Duke to win it all. Nobody else was even close.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Affleck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>About 47 million adults in the US are expected to gamble on March Madness this year. A growing share of the bets will actually be legal.John Affleck, Knight Chair in Sports Journalism and Society, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/933142018-03-16T10:27:59Z2018-03-16T10:27:59ZJust competing in March Madness is a fundraising win for the schools<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210325/original/file-20180314-113485-15toq3d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">University of Pennsylvania players celebrate winning the 2018 Ivy League title as fans storm the court.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Ivy-League-Penn-Harvard-Basketball/58c8f3504cf24af79f56333d2b4ee013/7/0">AP Photo/Chris Szagola</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The NCAA men’s basketball championship, better known as March Madness, raises big bucks even if the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-man-responsible-for-making-march-madness-the-moneymaking-bonanza-it-is-today-91732">players</a> aren’t paid. </p>
<p>In 2018, CBS is paying the <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-march-madness-and-the-nonprofit-that-manages-the-mayhem-93202">National Collegiate Athletic Association</a> <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/where-does-money-go">more than US$800 million</a> for the rights to televise the spectacle, and the NCAA will reap another $129 million from ticket sales. </p>
<p>What about the colleges and universities that populate the bracket? No team can play a game on its home court, depriving their schools of not just ticket revenue but concession sales. The NCAA, which keeps the proceeds from any games played in campus arenas, instead pays conferences according to a complex <a href="https://herosports.com/ncaa-tournament/how-much-money-ncaa-tournament-earned-conference-2017-basketball-fund-a7a7">revenue-sharing arrangement</a> that amounts to roughly $1.5 million for each game played by their teams. The conferences then allocate this money as they wish.</p>
<p>Individual schools also garner media exposure that may pique the interest of prospective students. But the biggest financial benefit they get comes from donations by fans and alumni, which I have learned by researching <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=_tU55R0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">the economics of sports and higher education</a>.</p>
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<h2>Donation disparities</h2>
<p>Behavioral economists say that seeing a favorite team compete can instill a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2013.09.005">warm glow</a> that may move fans to open their wallets.</p>
<p>Donations of all kinds averaged about <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/">$13.6 million </a> in 2015 at the 347 schools in Division 1 – those with March Madness teams – based on my calculations using the most <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/login.aspx">recent data available</a>. But the scale of this giving varies widely.</p>
<p>The top 1 percent of higher education institutions draw donations worth more than $500 million per year on average, while the bottom 1 percent get an average of $1.2 million. </p>
<p>This disparity means that the same kind of bump in giving will make a very different kind of impact on two schools at opposite ends of this wide range. Consider <a href="https://www.click2houston.com/news/the-big-dance-uh-tsu-basketball-teams-ncaa-tourney-bound">Texas Southern University</a>, a March Madness contender in that bottom 1 percent. It amassed only $260,000 in donations in 2015, according to the <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter/login.aspx">National Center for Education Statistics</a>. A $50,000 gift from a fan delighted by the Tigers’ March Madness appearance would really jack up its yearly donations.</p>
<p>But the University of Houston, a nearby rival, garnered $9 million that same year. If one of its ardent fans donated that same $50,000, it would barely make a difference in terms of the school’s overall fundraising.</p>
<h2>Success pays off</h2>
<p>How much does a March Madness appearance boost donations? </p>
<p>I looked into that with <a href="http://www.usf.edu/business/contacts/mondello-michael.aspx">Michael Mondello</a> at the University of South Florida a decade ago. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1123/jsm.21.2.265">Our study</a> analyzed 20 years of financial data from Division 1 colleges and universities. We found that the public universities making the cut saw an increase in donations of about $1.2 million in 2015 dollars the following year. Private institutions did even better, getting a $1.4 million bump.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"572049332364566528"}"></div></p>
<p>Public universities also saw their donations rise after their football teams took part in bowl games, but not private universities. That’s probably because with the exception of <a href="http://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings">Notre Dame</a>, the University of Southern California and Stanford University, most schools with top-performing NCAA football teams are public universities.</p>
<p>This sports-related increase typically has <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/pubs/web/fintab92.asp">strings attached</a>, often supporting athletic departments. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"973605643037929473"}"></div></p>
<p>Universities participating in March Madness use this opportunity to connect with alumni and fans. Our study showed that their fundraisers generally do convert success on the court into fundraising success.</p>
<p>There are also some surprising ways that a NCAA-generated publicity can apparently elicit donations. University of Tennessee researchers found that donations increased when an <a href="https://lawandcrime.com/sports/study-schools-that-cheat-ncaa-do-better-with-alumni-donors/">athletic program was under NCAA investigation</a> for breaking rules. Their study suggests that fans rally around athletic programs when they’re in trouble.</p>
<p>Because of the wide disparity in donations received by colleges and universities, last-second shots that put a team into March Madness can be exceptionally lucrative for schools with little annual giving. <a href="https://twitter.com/NCAAHoops247/status/970390507200401408">Radford University</a>’s team, for instance, qualified in 2018 on a 3-point shot in the last second of the Big South Tournament finals. It collected just $2.3 million in donations in 2015, so that one moment on the basketball court could increase next year’s donations by 50 percent. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"970390507200401408"}"></div></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Humphreys does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Taking part in the NCAA tournament tends to make a bigger difference for public universities that garner relatively few donations.Brad Humphreys, Professor of Economics, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/917322018-03-14T10:49:19Z2018-03-14T10:49:19ZThe man responsible for making March Madness the moneymaking bonanza it is today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210007/original/file-20180312-30983-69oiu9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Walter Byers served as executive director of the NCAA between 1951 and 1988.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Watchf-AP-A-LA-USA-APHS441314-Walter-Byers/f751be7f34014b4684e9a1ee9de831e5/14/0">Jim Bourdier/AP Photo</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In a legendary “South Park” <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XEq6XYtMVU">episode</a> lampooning the NCAA, the character Eric Cartman asks a university president if he can purchase some of his “slaves” – er, “student-athletes” – who play men’s basketball.</p>
<p>“How do you get around not paying your slaves?” Cartman wonders.</p>
<p>The outraged university president kicks Cartman out of his office. But if the president were being honest, all he would have to do is utter one name: Walter Byers.</p>
<p>Byers served as the NCAA’s first executive director from 1951 to 1988. During this period, the NCAA evolved from an insignificant advocate of athletic integrity into an economic powerhouse.</p>
<p>One critical piece of this growth was the creation of a narrative about the amateur purity of college sports. Walter Byers, who made “student-athlete” part of the American lexicon, played a central role in this enterprise. The NCAA, meanwhile, would become increasingly reliant on March Madness to finance its operations.</p>
<h2>Cashing in on March Madness</h2>
<p>Contrary to popular belief, college football provides the NCAA with almost no revenue. </p>
<p>A landmark 1985 U.S. Supreme Court <a href="http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-supreme-court/468/85.html">decision</a> found that TV revenues for college sports would go to the various athletic conferences rather than to the NCAA. The NCAA still “regulates” college football. It just doesn’t get a piece of the pie.</p>
<p>The same is true for regular season and conference tournament college basketball games. Only March Madness makes money for the NCAA since it is run by the NCAA and schools are “invited” to play in it. Indeed, for many years schools often chose to play in the more prestigious National Invitation Tournament, which, since it was held in New York City, received much more of the media attention that colleges craved.</p>
<p>By the end of the 1960s, though, the NCAA tournament started to become more appealing to colleges than the National Invitation Tournament. Under Byers’ quiet direction, <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/economics/industrial-economics/big-time-sports-american-universities?format=HB&isbn=9781107004344#3BDco7FIs0y8OYQt.97">the NCAA invited a larger number of teams</a> to its tournament and paid all of their expenses. This subsidy was made possible by the organization’s then-significant broadcasting revenue from college football (which would subsequently end in 1985). The National Invitation Tournament couldn’t compete with this business model and eventually faded to second-class status.</p>
<p>Just how important is March Madness to the NCAA’s current financial health?</p>
<p>The annual tournament generates roughly <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031516/how-much-does-ncaa-make-march-madness.asp">US$900 million</a> per year, good for over 80 percent of the NCAA’s total annual revenue. The NCAA uses the bulk of its income to run the organization, <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/article/How-the-NCAA-s-March-Madness/242804?cid=at&utm_source=at&utm_medium=en&elqTrackId=f9412ed7295541348871e077c409aed3&elq=ad9e0a074d2f490db5e92460b6645702&elqaid=18158&elqat=1&elqCampaignId=8098">give payments to conferences</a> and subsidize nonrevenue sports championships. Even so, the NCAA accumulated a <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/11/ncaa-revenue-2014_n_6851286.html">surplus</a> in 2014 of $81 million. Tournament revenue is slated to reach $1.1 billion per year after 2025.</p>
<p>It wasn’t always that way. In the 1970s, the tournament itself probably cost more than it made, although there is only scant anecdotal data on this. In 1982, the tournament <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/finances/revenue">generated</a> about $17 million per year. Thus, tournament revenues increased 5,200 percent over 35 years, significantly outpacing <a href="http://www.in2013dollars.com/1982-dollars-in-2016">inflation</a> over that same period. </p>
<p>Expanded competition for broadcasting rights, fueled by the birth of cable channels like ESPN, turned this once sleepy tournament into the NCAA’s organizational cash cow.</p>
<h2>The ‘student-athlete’ is born</h2>
<p>But this moneymaker might not have developed at all if Walter Byers hadn’t coined the term “student-athlete” in the mid-1950s. </p>
<p>The term emerged as the NCAA defended itself in a worker’s compensation claim by the widow of Ray Dennison, who had died in 1954 while playing football for Fort Lewis A&M in Colorado. His widow likened college football to a full-time job, and argued that his death should be covered by state labor laws.</p>
<p>Byers and the NCAA’s lawyers countered that Dennison was a “student-athlete” participating in an extracurricular activity that just happened to be more dangerous than, say, singing in the glee club. <a href="https://law.justia.com/cases/colorado/supreme-court/1957/18284.html">The courts agreed</a> with the NCAA. </p>
<p>Since then, Byers’ “student-athlete” moniker has become the semantic centerpiece for the NCAA’s claim that college sports is inherently noncommercial. You’ll rarely hear anyone in the college sports industry not use the term “student-athlete” when referring to varsity players. </p>
<h2>Regrets, he had a few</h2>
<p>Whether or not there really is such a thing as a “student-athlete,” the idea behind the phrase has served the NCAA well for over 60 years. </p>
<p>It allows the NCAA to advertise college basketball as a fundamentally different product than professional basketball – and a better product at that. They can say that March Madness isn’t filled by professional athletes and team owners only interested in making a buck. Rather, the participants are student-athletes who simply love playing the game.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210111/original/file-20180313-30972-o852wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/210111/original/file-20180313-30972-o852wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210111/original/file-20180313-30972-o852wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210111/original/file-20180313-30972-o852wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=392&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210111/original/file-20180313-30972-o852wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210111/original/file-20180313-30972-o852wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/210111/original/file-20180313-30972-o852wh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=493&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The NCAA headquarters in Indianapolis, Ind.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Indianapolis-2012/d9e4cafd6bcd439aa0cc70d02fbb0648/39/0">Michael Conroy/AP Photo</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout the tournament, the NCAA will regularly tout the fact that 97 percent of student-athletes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CifMxxJznc">won’t become</a> professional athletes. Video vignettes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ltaRIJ0N2o">air</a> during commercial breaks and on jumbotrons reminding fans that these players ask questions in class and will one day put away their uniforms and sports equipment in favor of lab coats and briefcases.</p>
<p>But the student-athlete moniker isn’t just about selling a product. It’s about maximizing the revenue from these products. By claiming that college sports is educational rather than commercial, the NCAA can maintain its IRS 501(c)(3) tax-free status. If subjected to federal and state taxes, the $880 million of March Madness revenue could be reduced by 40 percent or more. (The NCAA also <a href="https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2014/03/27/ncaa-approaching-billion-per-year-amid-challenges-players/6973767/">doesn’t pay property taxes</a> on its palatial headquarters in Indianapolis.)</p>
<p>One of the great ironies in all this is that Walter Byers eventually learned to loathe the college sports behemoth he helped create. </p>
<p>In his 1997 <a href="https://www.press.umich.edu/14482/unsportsmanlike_conduct">autobiography</a>, Byers lamented that modern college sports were no longer a student activity – that they had instead become a high-dollar commercial enterprise. He argued that athletes should have the same rights as coaches and be able to sell their skills to the highest bidder.</p>
<p>In short, he came to agree with Cartman: The term “student-athlete” is merely a euphemism used to ensure schools and the NCAA can maximize their profits.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91732/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Eckstein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the 1950s, NCAA Executive Director Walter Byers coined the term ‘student-athlete,’ which laid the groundwork for the organization to reap the windfall from its annual basketball tournament.Rick Eckstein, Professor of Sociology, Villanova UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/900382018-03-13T10:40:14Z2018-03-13T10:40:14ZWinners and boozers: Binge drinking soars at March Madness schools as male students party<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208958/original/file-20180305-146700-p1hb9a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">North Carolina fans react while watching the Tar Heels play in the 2009 Final Four.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/NCAA-Championship-NCarolina-Fans-Basketball/173628c8d88142b0a023f1ca28f0fa50/3/0">Gerry Broome/AP</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For every tip-off during March Madness, it’s a sure bet that students at the schools playing in the basketball tournament will be tipping up more beer bottles than usual. </p>
<p>This was one of the key findings of an <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w23821">analysis</a> we conducted recently on the impact of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament on college students’ drinking behavior.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=v4lUXq4AAAAJ&hl=en">We</a> are all <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=FUl4oMsAAAAJ&hl=en">economists</a> with a keen interest in the relationship between <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TdNR3AIAAAAJ&hl=en">health and economics</a>. Our study shined a light on the well-established fact that alcohol consumption – and the negative effects that come along with it – often goes hand in hand with college sports. For that reason, college sporting events represent prime opportunities to think about ways to curtail drinking among college students.</p>
<h2>A long-standing tradition</h2>
<p>Researchers have long known that alcohol consumption rises during college sporting events. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07448480903540473">Study</a> after <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3200/JACH.56.3.255-260">study</a> has found that college students were more likely to binge drink on football game days.</p>
<p>The same is true for college basketball. For instance, a <a href="http://www.jsad.com/doi/abs/10.15288/jsa.2005.66.291">study</a> of 206 undergraduate students at Syracuse University in 2003 – when Syracuse won the NCAA men’s basketball championship – found that alcohol consumption on the two game days of the championship exceeded what is typical on campus.</p>
<h2>Negative effects</h2>
<p>Binge drinking is associated with many harmful outcomes for the drinker and those around them. These outcomes include <a href="http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/119/1/76">lower grades and increased rates of drunk driving</a> and <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/app.20160031">sexual assault</a>. One <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1527002508327389">study</a> found that assaults, vandalism and arrests for disorderly conduct and alcohol-related offenses increased on college football game days in the towns that hosted the game, especially after upsets.</p>
<p>What is it about college sports that seems to lead to increased rates of drinking? The first thing to understand is that college students binge drink and report heavy alcohol use at <a href="https://www.collegedrinkingprevention.gov/statistics/prevalence.aspx">higher rates</a> than their peers who aren’t in college. Social norms likely play a large role in this fact. For instance, <a href="https://search.proquest.com/docview/1437931285?accountid=14692">one study</a> found that college students tend to think that their peers drink more than they actually do. This perception can cause individuals to believe that heavy drinking is the norm, not the exception.</p>
<p>A different <a href="https://www.collegedrinkingprevention.gov/media/journal/164-perkins2.pdf">study</a> found that alcohol consumption can be reduced among college students by providing them with accurate information about how often their peers drink.</p>
<h2>The role of high-stakes games</h2>
<p>In order to understand how a major college sporting event affects alcohol consumption across different colleges, we examined the effect of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament on college students’ reported alcohol use.</p>
<p>We relied on the Harvard School of Public Health <a href="http://archive.sph.harvard.edu/cas/About/index.html">College Alcohol Study</a>, which provides information on students’ alcohol consumption at 43 NCAA Division I institutions in 1993, 1997, 1999 and 2001. With this data, we compared drinking rates before, during and after the tournament as well as across tournament and non-tournament schools each season.</p>
<p>We found that nearly 60 percent of male students whose school had just played in the men’s basketball tournament reported binge drinking once more in the past two weeks than a male student whose school did not play a tournament game during the survey window.</p>
<p>Overall drinks consumed experience a similar jump, as male students at tournament schools reported drinking 6.9 additional alcoholic beverages on average during the tournament. These numbers are comparable with <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07448480903540473">elevated drinking estimates</a> associated with college football game days.</p>
<h2>White males affected most</h2>
<p>The increase in binge drinking appears to be concentrated mostly among white male students. While 60 percent of male students binge drink more when their team plays in the NCAA Tournament, we detect no increase in alcohol consumption among female students. </p>
<p>According to our study, approximately 1 in 3 students who are over 21 appear to binge drink more when their team plays in the NCAA tournament. One in 4 underage students report binge drinking once more when their team plays.</p>
<p>The College Alcohol Study asked respondents about drinking and driving, so we were able to observe that students not only reported drinking more during the NCAA tournament, but that they were also about 10 percent more likely to report driving under the influence of alcohol or riding with someone who is under the influence.</p>
<p>Our paper adds to the growing amount of evidence that alcohol consumption during college sporting events has harmful effects on society. While we do not know of any single solution for all students at all schools, we note that <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07448480109596011">reducing the availability of alcohol at sporting events</a> has the ability to reduce “arrests, assaults, ejections from the stadium, and student referrals to the judicial affairs office.”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.nih.gov/">National Institutes of Health</a> has also created resources for both <a href="https://www.collegedrinkingprevention.gov/media/NIAAA_BacktoCollege_Fact_Sheet.pdf">parents of college students</a> and for <a href="https://www.collegedrinkingprevention.gov/CollegeAIM/Default.aspx">college administrators</a> to help reduce the amount of dangerous alcohol consumption among college students.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/90038/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Binge drinking rises during March Madness among male college students who attend schools that made it to the men’s basketball tournament. Researchers take a deeper look at the reasons why.Dustin R. White, Assistant Professor of Economics, Business Administration, University of Nebraska OmahaBenjamin Cowan, Associate Professor of Economics, Washington State UniversityJadrian Wooten, Assistant Teaching Professor of Economics, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/916182018-03-12T19:25:48Z2018-03-12T19:25:48ZThis March Madness, we’re using machine learning to predict upsets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208511/original/file-20180301-152581-1fyp4lv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">What surprises will this year's tournament have in store?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>“Beware the Ides of March.” Yes, it’s finally that time of year again: when the emperors of college basketball must watch their backs, lest the lowly bottom seeds of the tournament strike. </p>
<p>Before March 15, millions around the world will fill out their March Madness brackets. In 2017, ESPN <a href="https://wtop.com/ncaa-basketball/2017/03/record-number-of-ncaa-tournament-brackets-submitted-to-espn/">received a record</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNFantasy/status/842954532271415296">18.8 million brackets</a>. </p>
<p>The first step to a perfect bracket is correctly choosing the first round. Unfortunately, most of us can’t predict the future. Last year, only <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNFantasy/status/842954532271415296">164 of the submitted brackets</a> were perfect through the first round – less than 0.001 percent.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"842954532271415296"}"></div></p>
<p>Many brackets are busted when a <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/03/22/292801520/buffetts-billion-dollars-are-safe-as-upsets-bust-brackets">lower-seeded team upsets the favored higher seed</a>. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/">at least eight upsets occur on average each year</a>. If you want to win your bracket pool, you better pick at least a few upsets.</p>
<p>We’re two math Ph.D. candidates at the Ohio State University who have a passion for data science and basketball. This year, we decided it would be fun to build a computer program that uses a mathematical approach to predict first-round upsets. If we’re right, a bracket picked using our program should perform better through the first round than the average bracket.</p>
<h2>Fallible humans</h2>
<p>It’s not easy to identify which of the first-round games will result in an upset. </p>
<p>Say you have to decide between the No. 10 seed and the No. 7 seed. The No. 10 seed has pulled off upsets in its past three tournament appearances, once even making the Final Four. The No. 7 seed is a team that’s received little to no national coverage; the casual fan has probably never heard of them. Which would you choose? </p>
<p>If you chose the No. 10 seed in 2017, you would have gone with Virginia Commonwealth University over Saint Mary’s of California – and you would have been wrong. Thanks to a decision-making fallacy called recency bias, humans can be tricked into to using their most recent observations to make a decision. </p>
<p>Recency bias is just one type of bias that can infiltrate someone’s picking process, but there are many others. Maybe you’re biased toward your home team, or maybe you identify with a player and desperately want him or her to succeed. All of this influences your bracket in a potentially negative way. <a href="http://books.wwnorton.com/books/The-Undoing-Project/">Even seasoned professionals</a> fall into these traps.</p>
<h2>Modeling upsets</h2>
<p>Machine learning can defend against these pitfalls. </p>
<p>In machine learning, statisticians, mathematicians and computer scientists train a machine to make predictions by letting it “learn” from past data. This approach has been used in many diverse fields, including <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2018/02/25/10-ways-machine-learning-is-revolutionizing-marketing/#26d9700d5bb6">marketing</a>, <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/using-ai-to-help-stroke-victims-when-time-is-brain/">medicine</a> and <a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/1006.pdf">sports</a>.</p>
<p>Machine learning techniques can be likened to a black box. First, you feed the algorithm past data, essentially setting the dials on the black box. Once the settings are calibrated, the algorithm can read in new data, compare it to past data and then spit out its predictions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208389/original/file-20180301-36706-aae32g.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208389/original/file-20180301-36706-aae32g.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208389/original/file-20180301-36706-aae32g.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=169&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208389/original/file-20180301-36706-aae32g.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=169&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208389/original/file-20180301-36706-aae32g.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=169&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208389/original/file-20180301-36706-aae32g.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208389/original/file-20180301-36706-aae32g.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208389/original/file-20180301-36706-aae32g.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=212&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A black box view of machine learning algorithms.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Matthew Osborne</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In machine learning, there are a variety of black boxes available. For our March Madness project, the ones we wanted are known as <a href="http://www.springer.com/us/book/9780387848570">classification algorithms</a>. These help us determine whether or not a game should be classified as an upset, either by providing the probability of an upset or by explicitly classifying a game as one. </p>
<p>Our program uses a number of popular classification algorithms, including logistic regression, random forest models and k-nearest neighbors. Each method is like a different “brand” of the same machine; they work as differently under the hood as Fords and Toyotas, but perform the same classification job. Each algorithm, or box, has its own predictions about the probability of an upset. </p>
<p>We used the statistics of all <a href="https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/">2001 to 2017 first-round teams</a> to set the dials on our black boxes. When we tested one of our algorithms with the 2017 first-round data, it had about a 75 percent success rate. This gives us confidence that analyzing past data, rather than just trusting our gut, can lead to more accurate predictions of upsets, and thus better overall brackets. </p>
<p><iframe id="AoZsp" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AoZsp/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>What advantages do these boxes have over human intuition? For one, the machines can identify patterns in all of the 2001-2017 data in a matter of seconds. What’s more, since the machines rely only on data, they may be less likely to fall for human psychological biases.</p>
<p>That’s not to say that machine learning will give us perfect brackets. Even though the box bypasses human bias, it’s not immune to error. Results depend <a href="http://www.springer.com/us/book/9780387848570">on past data</a>. For example, if a No. 1 seed were to lose in the first round, our model would not likely predict it, because that has never happened before. </p>
<p>Additionally, machine learning algorithms work best <a href="http://www.springer.com/us/book/9780387848570">with thousands or even millions of examples</a>. Only 544 first-round March Madness games have been played since 2001, so our algorithms will not correctly call every upset. <a href="https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/2/26/17052150/mit-sloan-sports-analytics-conference-jimmy-butler-daryl-morey">Echoing basketball expert Jalen Rose</a>, our output should be used as a tool in conjunction with your expert knowledge – and luck! – to choose the correct games.</p>
<h2>Machine learning madness?</h2>
<p><a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions-2015/#mens">We’re not the first people</a> to apply machine learning to March Madness and we <a href="https://www.kaggle.com/c/mens-machine-learning-competition-2018">won’t be the last</a>. In fact, machine learning techniques <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-data-scientist-whod-never-heard-of-basketball-mastered-march-madness/">may soon be necessary to make your bracket competitive</a>.</p>
<p>You don’t need a degree in mathematics to use machine learning – although it helps us. Soon, machine learning may be <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/28/17063780/google-ai-machine-learning-hub-crash-course-free">more accessible than ever</a>. Those interested can <a href="https://github.com/kevinnowland/NCAA">take a look at our models online</a>. Feel free to explore our algorithms and even <a href="http://www-bcf.usc.edu/%7Egareth/ISL/">come up with a better approach yourself</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91618/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Can a computer model correctly predict the results of the first round in this year’s tournament? These mathematicians think so.Matthew Osborne, Ph.D Candidate in Mathematics, The Ohio State UniversityKevin Nowland, Ph.D Candidate in Mathematics, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/932022018-03-12T10:42:06Z2018-03-12T10:42:06ZWhat is March Madness – and the nonprofit that manages the mayhem?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209842/original/file-20180312-30972-1kawzis.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The former president, seen here with the highest paid basketball coach in the NCAA, was known for getting into March Madness. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The annual college basketball spectacle known as March Madness has arrived. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-03-27/2017-ncaa-tournament-scores-increases-television-viewership">Millions of people</a> will tune in to the three-week tournament to see who’s the best team in the U.S. And millions more <a href="https://www.printyourbrackets.com/howtomarchmadness.html">will wager a few bucks</a> to take part in an office pool in which they try to pick the winner. Even presidents <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/03/former-president-barack-obama-picks-his-march-madness-brackets">have been known</a> to take part in the madness. </p>
<p>But behind the hype is a lot of cash. Just as journalists are trained to <a href="http://www.niemanlab.org/2017/02/follow-the-money-is-both-good-advice-for-journalists-and-an-investigative-site-aiming-for-20000-paying-members/">follow the money</a>, so are economists like me. So let’s take a closer look.</p>
<h2>From final draw to Final Four</h2>
<p>March Madness is a <a href="https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2018-03-05/what-march-madness-ncaa-tournament-explained">single-elimination tournament</a> in which athletes from 68 Division I teams compete in seven rounds. The tournament begins with a bracket draw, held on March 11, and then <a href="https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2018/03/02/mm-2018-printable-bracket.png">dwindles</a> down to the Sweet Sixteen, the Elite Eight, the Final Four and the championship game in San Antonio on April 2. </p>
<p>The nonprofit National Collegiate Athletic Association, or NCAA, formed the tournament in 1939, when just eight teams competed. </p>
<p>While the phrase “March Madness” <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-flashback-march-madness-spt-0315-20150314-story.html">was first coined</a> in Illinois in 1939 to describe its state high school basketball tournament, it wasn’t used for the collegiate gathering until 1982. </p>
<h2>Follow the money</h2>
<p>Perhaps more interesting than the tournament itself is the organization that runs it. </p>
<p>The NCAA generates a huge amount of money, <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/where-does-money-go">taking in almost US$1 billion</a> a year. The vast majority comes from March Madness and the <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2016-04-12/turner-cbs-and-ncaa-reach-long-term-multimedia-rights">television and marketing revenue</a> it generates. </p>
<p>Current <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/who-we-are/office-president/ncaa-president-mark-emmert">NCAA President</a> Mark Emmert earns <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2017/05/18/ncaa-mark-emmert-oliver-luck-salaries/101829110/">over $1.9 million</a> a year, more than every <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/interactives/executive-compensation#id=table_public_2016">public college president</a> and all but <a href="https://www.chronicle.com/interactives/executive-compensation#id=table_private_2015">11 private school leaders</a>. </p>
<p>His salary, however, is <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2016/03/the-madness-of-college-basketball-coaches-salaries/475146/">easily eclipsed by college coaches</a>. Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski earns $8.98 million a year, and <a href="http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/mens-basketball/coach/">at least 49 others</a> make more than Emmert. </p>
<p>By comparison, the <a href="https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2018/02/21/new-data-show-wage-gap-between-professors-and-other-advanced-degree-holders">university</a> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/on-leadership/wp/2014/04/07/heres-what-the-average-full-time-professor-made-last-year">professors</a> who educate these student-athletes – the purpose of college after all – earn a fraction of the salaries of the coaches and Emmert. A full professor at a public doctoral institution earned an average of <a href="https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/SurveyReportTablesMA16.pdf">$126,000</a> in 2016.</p>
<h2>So what else does the NCAA do?</h2>
<p>The NCAA <a href="https://www.guidestar.org/profile/44-0567264">states</a> that it helps more than 480,000 student-athletes “succeed on the playing field, in the classroom and throughout life.” As such, it touches the lives of more students than even the biggest university in the country, the University of Phoenix, which <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=74">educates 195,000</a>. </p>
<p>As part of its mission, the association <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/graduation-rates">claims 87 percent</a> of its student-athletes earn degrees within six years, up from 74 percent in 2002 and far better than the <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=40">60 percent</a> rate among comparable full-time undergraduate students.</p>
<p>For basketball players competing in March Madness, however, the percentage is quite a bit lower, with just 76 percent of the male athletes graduating in six years. The rate is <a href="http://nebula.wsimg.com/63037e2d226dc6cdac787a498f2ddaf6?AccessKeyId=DAC3A56D8FB782449D2A&disposition=0&alloworigin=1">higher for women basketball players</a>, at 90 percent. </p>
<p>One of the reasons for this is that student-athletes must be fairly bright to begin with, with a <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/student-athletes/future/eligibility-center">high school GPA of at least 2.3</a>. And in college, they get an <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/04/sports/ncaafootball/04ncaa.html">incredible amount of support, guidance and supervision</a> that ensures they keep up with their courses and take exams while competing.</p>
<h2>The real madness</h2>
<p>While the NCAA declares it “financially assists student-athletes in need of educational materials, clothing and emergency travel expenses,” its <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/440567264">2014 tax form</a> shows it provided only $21,049 total in “grants and other assistance to domestic individuals” and nothing in <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/440567264">2015</a>.</p>
<p>While the NCAA <a href="https://theconversation.com/march-madness-means-money-its-time-to-talk-about-whos-getting-paid-56194">says virtually all the money it collects</a> it sends back to schools and athletics conferences, including about $80 million it says goes directly to students through its <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2018DIFin_NCAA_DivisionI_RevenueDistributionPlan_20180214.pdf">Student Assistance Fund</a>, it still keeps quite a bit in most years as profit, <a href="https://www.guidestar.org/profile/44-0567264">usually around $35 million</a>. As a result, the NCAA has slightly more than <a href="https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/440567264">$300 million</a> in the bank. </p>
<p>For comparison, this is larger than <a href="https://www.nacubo.org/-/media/Nacubo/Documents/EndowmentFiles/2016-NCSE-Public-Tables_Number-of-NCSE-Participants.ashx?la=en&hash=7DB80993F580B778AE0B62BC67C80041566C8D26">half of all university endowments</a> in the U.S.</p>
<p>Honestly, I’m not sure why an organization devoted to setting rules and hosting championship tournaments needs so much income.</p>
<p>The NCAA used to claim <a href="https://web3.ncaa.org/lsdbi/search/bylawView?id=1">its primary purpose</a> was to “maintain intercollegiate athletics as an integral part of the educational program.” Today, in my view, the NCAA seems more focused on selling <a href="http://www.shopncaasports.com/">official gear in its championship store</a>, offering <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/march-madness">live apps</a> for continuous connectivity and prompting <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracket-beat/march-madness-printable-ncaa-tournament-bracket">bracket mania</a> for <a href="https://www.americangaming.org/newsroom/press-releasess/march-madness-betting-top-10-billion">gamblers</a>.</p>
<p>While I no longer fill in a bracket, I will be plopping down on my couch like millions of other Americans to follow the tournament – and in my case root on the student-athletes playing for the Ohio State Buckeyes. </p>
<p>All the same, I believe March Madness has nothing to do with education and a great deal to do with marketing. And that’s fine, it’s just like the NFL playoffs or the MLB’s World Series. Except perversely, the organization that runs March Madness gets tax-exempt status.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated to clarify ways in which the NCAA gives money to student-athletes.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/93202/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Every March, millions of Americans watch the NCAA’s annual college basketball tournament, while millions more fill in brackets to win their office pool.Jay L. Zagorsky, Economist and Research Scientist, The Ohio State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/917272018-03-01T11:39:46Z2018-03-01T11:39:46ZThe math behind the perfect free throw<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/206032/original/file-20180212-58335-bc89yc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Small differences account for a shooter's consistency.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/philadelphia-february-6-temple-guard-khalif-127778342?src=KXIMzDrmiwq6SmrKU5UTvw-1-20">Aspen Photo/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Some 20 years ago, my colleague <a href="https://www.mae.ncsu.edu/people/cmtran/">Dr. Chau Tran</a> and I developed a way to simulate the trajectories of millions of basketballs on the computer.</p>
<p>We went to the coaches and assistant coaches at North Carolina State University, where we are based, and told them we had this uncommon ability to study basketball shots very carefully. </p>
<p>Their first question was simple: “What’s the best free throw?” Should the shooter aim towards the front of the hoop or the back? Does it depend on whether the shooter is short or tall?</p>
<p>Math offers a unique perspective. It speeds up the amount of time it takes to see the patterns behind the best shots. For the most part, we discovered things that the players and coaches already knew – but every so often, we came across a new insight. </p>
<h2>Simulating millions of shots</h2>
<p>From a mathematical viewpoint, basketball is a game of trajectories. These trajectories are unique in that the ball’s motion doesn’t change much when it’s flying through the air, but then rapidly changes over milliseconds when the ball collides with the the hoop or the backboard. </p>
<p>To simulate millions of <a href="http://doi.org/10.1115/1.1636193">trajectories</a> without the code taking too long to run, we tried any trick we could think of. We figured out how to go from modestly changing motion to rapidly changing motion, such as when the ball bounces on the rim or off the backboard. We learned how to turn large numbers of trajectories into statistical probabilities. We even created fictitious trajectories in which the ball magically passes through all of the physical obstacles (hoop, backboard, back plate) except for one, to see where it collides first. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207125/original/file-20180220-116365-hynwz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207125/original/file-20180220-116365-hynwz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207125/original/file-20180220-116365-hynwz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207125/original/file-20180220-116365-hynwz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207125/original/file-20180220-116365-hynwz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207125/original/file-20180220-116365-hynwz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207125/original/file-20180220-116365-hynwz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207125/original/file-20180220-116365-hynwz4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How a mathematician sees a free throw.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Larry Silverberg</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The free throw was the first shot that my colleague and I studied in detail. In close games, teams can win and lose at the free-throw line. What’s more, the free throw is uncontested, so perfection in the free throw can pay off big. <a href="https://hoopshabit.com/2014/10/10/nba-free-throws-championship-success/">Top teams</a> tend to shoot the free shot well.</p>
<p>Our program could tell us what chances the shooter had in sinking a free throw – and help us figure out what he was doing right or wrong.</p>
<h2>Breaking down the free throw</h2>
<p>We studied the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18645735">free throw</a> for about five years. </p>
<p>One of the first things we learned from our simulations and by watching TV footage was that players with the same consistency can shoot free throws with anywhere from 75 to 90 percent accuracy. The difference was that the 90 percent players were being consistent at the right shot - the best trajectory.</p>
<p>The fate of a free throw is set the instant the ball leaves the player’s fingertips, so we looked closely at the “launch conditions” of the shot. The ball is located at some height above the floor. It has a rate at which it is spinning backwards (called backspin), and it has a launch speed and a launch angle. Since the shooter never launches the ball the same way, small differences account for a shooter’s consistency.</p>
<p>We found that about 3 hertz of backspin is the best amount; more than that does not help. It takes about 1 second for a ball to reach the basket, so 3 hertz equates to three revolutions in the air, from the instant the ball leaves the player’s hands to when it reaches the basket. </p>
<p>Next, assuming the player releases the ball at 7 feet above the ground, a launch angle of about 52 degrees is best. In that angle, the launch speed is the lowest, and the probability of the shot being successful is the greatest. At 52 degrees, the shooter can be off a degree or more either way without a large effect on the shot’s success. </p>
<p>However, launch speed is quite the opposite. It’s the hardest variable for a player to control. Release the ball too slowly and the shot is short; release it too fast and the shot is long. A player needs to memorize the motion of her entire body during release to impart the same speed consistently. </p>
<p>All else being the same, players who release from higher above the floor have a higher shooting percentage. That’s interesting, because our coaches at N.C. State and others I have talked say that taller players tend to shoot the free throw worse than shorter players do. It seems that the shorter players must try harder. </p>
<p>The last release condition was the most surprising: the aim point of the free throw. We found that the player should aim the ball to the back of the rim. Basically, the back of the rim is more forgiving than the front of the rim. At a release height of 7 feet, the gap between the ball and the back of the ring should be less than 2 inches. A small gap is best whether launching at low or high release heights. </p>
<h2>Lessons learned</h2>
<p>So what does this all mean for players out there aspiring to improve their free throw? </p>
<p>Our research suggests that players should aim the ball beyond the center of the rim. Launch the ball at a high angle and as high above the ground as possible. (The ball, at the highest point of its arc, should reach the top of the backboard.) Line up the ball to eliminate the side angle. And try to launch the ball with smooth body motion, to produce a consistent launch speed.</p>
<p>In the past few years, we’ve expanded our work to study where <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-1001">the best bank shots</a> strike the backboard and <a href="https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1299">developed a tool</a> for anyone who wants to perfect it. </p>
<p>With tournament play underway, I’m reminded of how competitive the game has become, and how it has truly become a game of inches. As an old basketball player, like many of you, I enjoy watching the game – and, every so often, catching a glimpse of that perfect free throw.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/91727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Larry M. Silverberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A basketball computer program simulates millions of trajectories in search of the ideal shot.Larry M. Silverberg, Professor of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, North Carolina State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/747862017-03-27T02:38:25Z2017-03-27T02:38:25ZMomentum isn’t magic – vindicating the hot hand with the mathematics of streaks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162474/original/image-20170325-12136-o0fy7p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=72%2C0%2C5489%2C3574&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When a player's on fire, is it hot hands?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/basketball-player-413840878">Basketball image via www.shutterstock.com.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s NCAA basketball tournament season, known for its magical moments and the “March Madness” it can produce. Many fans remember <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJBgFvbod2I">Stephen Curry’s superhuman 2008 performance</a> where he led underdog Davidson College to victory while nearly outscoring the entire determined Gonzaga team by himself in the second half. Was Curry’s magic merely a product of his skill, the match-ups and random luck, or was there something special within him that day?</p>
<p>Nearly every basketball player, coach or fan believes that some shooters have an uncanny tendency to experience the hot hand – also referred to as being “on fire,” “in the zone,” “in rhythm” or “unconscious.” The idea is that on occasion these players enter into a special state in which their ability to make shots is noticeably better than usual. When people see a streak, like Craig Hodges <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woZham-kFnI">hitting 19 3-pointers in a row</a>, or other <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nyBpt9tRsg">exceptional performances</a>, they typically attribute it to the hot hand.</p>
<p>The hot hand makes intuitive sense. For instance, you can probably recall a situation, in sports or otherwise, in which you felt like you had momentum on your side – your body was in sync, your mind was focused and you were in a confident mood. In these moments of <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Flow_in_Sports.html?id=Jak4A8rEZawC">flow</a> success feels inevitable, and effortless. </p>
<p>However, if you go to the <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/health-and-safety/nutrition-and-performance/hot-hand">NCAA’s website</a>, you’ll read that this intuition is incorrect – the hot hand does not exist. Belief in the hot hand is just a delusion that occurs because we as humans have a predisposition to see patterns in randomness; we see streakiness even though shooting data are essentially random. Indeed, this view has been held for the past 30 years among scientists who study judgment and decision-making. Even Nobel Prize winner <a href="http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2002/kahneman-facts.html">Daniel Kahneman</a> affirmed <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=w_fYZZPcgpkC&pg=PT157&dq=%22Tom+Gilovich,+Robert+Vallone,+and+Amos+Tversky+(1985)+demonstrated+empirically+that+the+hot+hand+does+not+exist.%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwikwc_k1e_SAhVLllQKHQ35Bd8Q6AEIGjAA#v=onepage&q=%22Tom%20Gilovich%2C%20Robert%20Vallone%2C%20and%20Amos%20Tversky%20(1985)%20demonstrated%20empirically%20that%20the%20hot%20hand%20does%20not%20exist.%22&f=false">this consensus</a>: “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=TA7Q27RWlj0C&pg=PT173&dq=%22The+hot+hand+is+a+massive+and+widespread+cognitive+illusion%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj8jb6clujSAhXrjlQKHZUgB1UQ6AEIITAB#v=onepage&q=%22The%20hot%20hand%20is%20a%20massive%20and%20widespread%20cognitive%20illusion%22&f=false">The hot hand is a massive and widespread cognitive illusion</a>.”</p>
<p>Nevertheless, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2627354">recent work</a> has uncovered critical flaws in the research which underlies this consensus. In fact, these flaws are sufficient to not only invalidate the most compelling evidence against the hot hand, but even to vindicate the belief in streakiness.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162473/original/image-20170325-12157-6y6n5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162473/original/image-20170325-12157-6y6n5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162473/original/image-20170325-12157-6y6n5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162473/original/image-20170325-12157-6y6n5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162473/original/image-20170325-12157-6y6n5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=303&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162473/original/image-20170325-12157-6y6n5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162473/original/image-20170325-12157-6y6n5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162473/original/image-20170325-12157-6y6n5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=381&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sometimes it feels like a player just can’t miss. Is there a truth to this feeling, or is it a delusion?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/NCAA-Davidson-Kansas-Basketball/6c86019f02784f7b979b8c8a7cb180d0/1/0">AP Photo/Michael Conroy</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Research made it the ‘hot hand fallacy’</h2>
<p>In the landmark 1985 paper “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(85)90010-6">The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences</a>,” psychologists Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone and Amos Tversky (GVT, for short) found that when studying basketball shooting data, the sequences of makes and misses are indistinguishable from the sequences of heads and tails one would expect to see from flipping a coin repeatedly.</p>
<p>Just as a gambler will get an occasional streak when flipping a coin, a basketball player will produce an occasional streak when shooting the ball. GVT concluded that the hot hand is a “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.103.3.582">cognitive illusion</a>”; people’s tendency to detect patterns in randomness, to see perfectly typical streaks as atypical, led them to believe in an illusory hot hand.</p>
<p>GVT’s conclusion that the hot hand doesn’t exist was initially dismissed out of hand by practitioners; legendary Boston Celtics coach Red Auerbach famously said: “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=LURGkHCPAJEC&lpg=PA17&dq=%22Who%20is%20this%20guy%3F%20So%20he%20makes%20a%20study.%20I%20couldn%E2%80%99t%20care%20less.%22&pg=PA17#v=onepage&q=%22Who%20is%20this%20guy?%20So%20he%20makes%20a%20study.%20I%20couldn%E2%80%99t%20care%20less.%22&f=false">Who is this guy? So he makes a study. I couldn’t care less.</a>” The academic response was no less critical, but Tversky and Gilovich successfully defended their work, while <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09332480.1989.10554951">uncovering critical flaws</a> in the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09332480.1989.10554950">studies that challenged it</a>. While there remained some <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2012.07.005">isolated skepticism</a>, GVT’s result was accepted as the scientific consensus, and the “hot hand fallacy” was born.</p>
<p>Importantly, GVT found that professional practitioners (players and coaches) not only were victims of the fallacy, but that their belief in the hot hand was <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=oZ7bCte5_xUC&pg=PA229&lpg=PA229&dq=%22I%27ve+been+in+a+thousand+arguments+over+this+topic.+I%27ve+won+them+all,+and+I%27ve+convinced+no+one.%22&source=bl&ots=wk7Lg29Osn&sig=8cvkQHFQzxkky7ScbQ-L_QlYKdk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiQ19Ki0-_SAhUmrVQKHfUKCDUQ6AEIITAB#v=onepage&q=%22I've%20been%20in%20a%20thousand%20arguments%20over%20this%20topic.%20I've%20won%20them%20all%2C%20and%20I've%20convinced%20no%20one.%22&f=false">stubbornly fixed</a>. The power of GVT’s result had a profound influence on how psychologists and economists think about decision-making in domains where information arrives over time. As GVT’s result was extrapolated into areas outside of basketball, the hot hand fallacy became a cultural meme. From <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=fAsZGQfmXG8C&pg=PA150&dq=%22hot+hand%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiR8Z-myujSAhVB32MKHSQ7BVgQ6AEI-QEwKQ#v=onepage&q=%22hot%20hand%22&f=false">financial investing</a> to <a href="http://www.psychologyofgames.com/2009/12/hot-hand-fallacy-and-kill-streaks-in-modern-warfare-2/">video gaming</a>, the notion that momentum could exist in human performance came to be viewed as incorrect by default.</p>
<p>The pedantic “No, actually” commentators were given a license to throw cold water on the hot hand believers.</p>
<h2>Taking another look at the probabilities</h2>
<p>In what turns out to be an ironic twist, we’ve recently found <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=w_fYZZPcgpkC&pg=PT157&dq=%22Tom+Gilovich,+Robert+Vallone,+and+Amos+Tversky+(1985)+demonstrated+empirically+that+the+hot+hand+does+not+exist.%22&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwikwc_k1e_SAhVLllQKHQ35Bd8Q6AEIGjAA#v=onepage&q=%22Tom%20Gilovich%2C%20Robert%20Vallone%2C%20and%20Amos%20Tversky%20(1985)%20demonstrated%20empirically%20that%20the%20hot%20hand%20does%20not%20exist.%22&f=false">this consensus view</a> rests on a subtle – but crucial – misconception regarding the behavior of random sequences. In GVT’s critical test of hot hand shooting conducted on the Cornell University basketball team, they examined whether players shot better when on a streak of hits than when on a streak of misses. In this intuitive test, players’ field goal percentages were not markedly greater after streaks of makes than after streaks of misses. </p>
<p>GVT made the implicit assumption that the pattern they observed from the Cornell shooters is what you would expect to see if each player’s sequence of 100 shot outcomes were determined by coin flips. That is, the percentage of heads should be similar for the flips that follow streaks of heads, and the flips that follow streaks of misses.</p>
<p><a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2627354">Our surprising finding</a> is that this appealing intuition is incorrect. For example, imagine flipping a coin 100 times and then collecting all the flips in which the preceding three flips are heads. While one would intuitively expect that the percentage of heads on these flips would be 50 percent, instead, it’s less.</p>
<p>Here’s why.</p>
<p>Suppose a researcher looks at the data from a sequence of 100 coin flips, collects all the flips for which the previous three flips are heads and inspects one of these flips. To visualize this, imagine the researcher taking these collected flips, putting them in a bucket and choosing one at random. The chance the chosen flip is a heads – equal to the percentage of heads in the bucket – we claim is less than 50 percent.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162461/original/image-20170325-12132-zusuhs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162461/original/image-20170325-12132-zusuhs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162461/original/image-20170325-12132-zusuhs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162461/original/image-20170325-12132-zusuhs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162461/original/image-20170325-12132-zusuhs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=185&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162461/original/image-20170325-12132-zusuhs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162461/original/image-20170325-12132-zusuhs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162461/original/image-20170325-12132-zusuhs.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=233&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The percentage of heads on the flips that follow a streak of three heads can be viewed as the chance of choosing heads from a bucket consisting of all the flips that follow a streak of three heads.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Miller and Sanjurjo</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To see this, let’s say the researcher happens to choose flip 42 from the bucket. Now it’s true that if the researcher were to inspect flip 42 before examining the sequence, then the chance of it being heads would be exactly 50/50, as we intuitively expect. But the researcher looked at the sequence first, and collected flip 42 because it was one of the flips for which the previous three flips were heads. Why does this make it more likely that flip 42 would be tails rather than a heads?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162426/original/image-20170324-12152-4hranj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162426/original/image-20170324-12152-4hranj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162426/original/image-20170324-12152-4hranj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=159&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162426/original/image-20170324-12152-4hranj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=159&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162426/original/image-20170324-12152-4hranj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=159&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162426/original/image-20170324-12152-4hranj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162426/original/image-20170324-12152-4hranj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162426/original/image-20170324-12152-4hranj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=200&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Why tails is more likely when choosing a flip from the bucket.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Miller and Sanjurjo</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If flip 42 were heads, then flips 39, 40, 41 and 42 would be HHHH. This would mean that flip 43 would also follow three heads, and the researcher could have chosen flip 43 rather than flip 42 (but didn’t). If flip 42 were tails, then flips 39 through 42 would be HHHT, and the researcher would be restricted from choosing flip 43 (or 44, or 45). This implies that in the world in which flip 42 is tails (HHHT) flip 42 is more likely to be chosen as there are (on average) fewer eligible flips in the sequence from which to choose than in the world in which flip 42 is heads (HHHH).</p>
<p>This reasoning holds for any flip the researcher might choose from the bucket (unless it happens to be the final flip of the sequence). The world HHHT, in which the researcher has fewer eligible flips besides the chosen flip, restricts his choice more than world HHHH, and makes him more likely to choose the flip that he chose. This makes world HHHT more likely, and consequentially makes tails more likely than heads on the chosen flip. </p>
<p>In other words, selecting which part of the data to analyze based on information regarding where streaks are located within the data, restricts your choice, and changes the odds.</p>
<p>The complete proof can be found in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2627354">our working paper</a> that’s available online. Our reasoning here applies what’s known as the principle of restricted choice, which <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1983/01/30/arts/bridge-restricted-choice.html">comes up in the card game bridge</a>, and is the intuition behind the formal mathematical procedure for updating beliefs based on new information, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference">Bayesian inference</a>. In <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2709837">another one of our working papers</a>, which links our result to various probability puzzles and statistical biases, we found that the simplest version of our problem is nearly equivalent to <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/12/1/9821256/monty-hall-problem-mansplainers">the famous Monty Hall problem</a>, which <a href="https://sites.oxy.edu/lengyel/M372/Vazsonyi2003/vazs30_1.pdf">stumped the eminent mathematician Paul Erdős</a> and many other <a href="http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/">smart people</a>.</p>
<p>We observed a similar phenomenon; smart people were convinced that the bias we found couldn’t be true, which led to <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2016/02/18/miller-and-sanjurjo-share-5-tips-on-how-to-hit-the-zeitgeist-jackpot/">interesting email exchanges</a> and spirited posts to internet forums (<a href="http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/47/science-math-philosophy/coin-flips-only-40-likely-flip-heads-after-heads-1562992/">TwoPlusTwo</a>, <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/3mtcjf/why_is_a_coin_less_likely_to_be_heads_immediately/">Reddit</a>, <a href="http://economics.stackexchange.com/questions/6489/did-previous-researchers-fail-to-detect-the-hot-hand-simply-because-of-a-statist">StackExchange</a>) and the comment sections of academic blogs (<a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-hot-hand/">Gelman</a>, <a href="https://rjlipton.wordpress.com/2015/10/12/is-the-hot-hand-fallacy-a-fallacy/">Lipton&Regan</a>, <a href="http://www.culturalcognition.net/blog/2015/11/9/making-sense-of-the-hot-hand-fallacy-fallacy-part-1.html">Kahan</a>, <a href="http://www.thebigquestions.com/2015/10/07/boys-girls-and-hot-hands/">Landsburg</a>, <a href="http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/innumeracy-the-hot-hands-debate-continues/">Novella</a>, <a href="http://nadaesgratis.es/pedro-rey-biel/existen-las-rachas-ba-lon-ces-to-y-otras-cosas">Rey Biel</a>), newspapers (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hot-hand-debate-gets-flipped-on-its-head-1443465711">Wall Street Journal</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/18/sunday-review/gamblers-scientists-and-the-mysterious-hot-hand.html">The New York</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/27/upshot/trust-your-eyes-a-hot-streak-is-not-a-myth.html">Times</a>) and <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/11/solution_to_coin_flip_paradox_when_to_bet_heads_or_tails.html">online</a> magazines (<a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/10/hot_hands_in_basketball_are_real_new_analysis_shows.html">Slate</a> and <a href="http://nymag.com/scienceofus/2016/08/how-researchers-discovered-the-basketball-hot-hand.html">NYMag</a>).</p>
<h2>The hot hand rises again</h2>
<p>With this counterintuitive new finding in mind, let’s now go back to the GVT data. GVT divided shots into those that followed streaks of three (or more) makes, and streaks of three (or more) misses, and compared field goal percentages across these categories. Because of the surprising bias we discovered, their finding of only a negligibly higher field goal percentage for shots following a streak of makes (three percentage points), was, if you do the calculation, actually 11 percentage points higher than one would expect from a coin flip! </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162475/original/image-20170325-12157-ziljmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162475/original/image-20170325-12157-ziljmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162475/original/image-20170325-12157-ziljmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162475/original/image-20170325-12157-ziljmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162475/original/image-20170325-12157-ziljmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=900&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162475/original/image-20170325-12157-ziljmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162475/original/image-20170325-12157-ziljmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162475/original/image-20170325-12157-ziljmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1131&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Not just an illusion, those hands can be hot.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/abstract-illustration-basketball-player-flames-31296391">Athlete image via www.shutterstock.com.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An 11 percentage point relative boost in shooting when on a hit-streak is not negligible. In fact, it is roughly equal to the difference in field goal percentage between the <a href="http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/3-points">average and the very best 3-point shooter in the NBA</a>. Thus, in contrast with what was originally found, GVT’s data reveal a substantial, and statistically significant, hot hand effect. </p>
<p>Importantly, this evidence in support of hot hand shooting is not unique. Indeed, in recent research we’ve found that this effect <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2611987">replicates in the NBA’s Three Point contest</a>, as well in <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2450479">other controlled studies</a>. Evidence from other researchers using <a href="https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1198">free throw</a> and <a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2481494">game</a> data corroborates this. Further, there’s a good chance the hot hand is <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-hot-hand/#comment-227641">more substantial than we estimate</a> due to another subtle <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2012.676467">statistical issue called “measurement error,”</a> which we discuss in the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2627354">appendix of our paper</a>.</p>
<p>Thus, surprisingly, these recent discoveries show that the practitioners were actually right all along. It’s OK to believe in the hot hand. While perhaps you shouldn’t get <a href="http://www.csnne.com/boston-celtics/paul-millsaps-hot-hand-took-atlanta-hawks-out-of-their-game-against-boston-celtics">too carried away</a>, you can believe in the <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-athletes-way/201511/superfluidity-and-the-hot-hand-are-synonymous">magic and mystery</a> of momentum <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBGsb7xyPNI">in basketball</a> and <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/bob-dylan-and-the-hot-hand">life in general</a>, while still maintaining your <a href="http://andrewgelman.com/2015/07/09/hey-guess-what-there-really-is-a-hot-hand/">intellectual respectability</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Miller does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adam Sanjurjo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For 30 years, sports fans have been told to forget about streaks because the ‘hot hand’ is a fallacy. But a reanalysis says not so fast: Statistics show players really are in the zone sometimes.Joshua Miller, Affiliate at IGIER and Assistant Professor of Decision Sciences, Bocconi UniversityAdam Sanjurjo, Assistant Professor of Economics, Universidad de AlicanteLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/734252017-03-03T02:08:40Z2017-03-03T02:08:40ZMarch Mammal Madness tournament shows the power of ‘performance science’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159169/original/image-20170302-14686-1jd11p2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Let the games begin.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://mammalssuck.blogspot.com/2017/02/dont-call-it-is-comeback-weve-been-here.html">Katie Hinde</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In early March most science professors are writing midterms and eagerly awaiting spring break to catch up on research. We’re no exceptions, but we are also preparing to emcee a tournament like no other, with thousands of “spectators” in the United States and worldwide: <a href="http://mammalssuck.blogspot.com/2017/02/dont-call-it-is-comeback-weve-been-here.html">March Mammal Madness</a>. </p>
<p>This epic event mimics the National Collegiate Athletic Association’s annual 64-team, single-elimination <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/march-madness">Division I basketball tournament</a>. Instead of human athletes, it features simulated animal battles that reflect attributes of each competing species, including temperament, size, weaponry, armor and fight style. </p>
<p>Scientists creatively script the battles to showcase animals’ cool adaptations, conservation concerns and ecological contexts. An occasional nonmammal entrant makes an appearance, such as this year’s <a href="http://animals.sandiegozoo.org/animals/gila-monster">gila monster</a>. Commentaries quote scientific research on ecology, social behavior, evolution and parenting, weaving in pop culture references and jokes galore.</p>
<p>The elaborate battle narratives are “live-tweeted.” Summaries of the outcomes are posted on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/MammalMadness/">Facebook</a> and tweets are archived on <a href="https://storify.com/Mammals_Suck">Storify</a>. For fans who want to dive a little deeper, battle narrators link to peer-reviewed articles that help determine the likely outcome of these clashes. Additional scientists will be on deck this year tweeting about genetics, genomics and phylogeny of battle species. </p>
<p>March Mammal Madness is collective, performance science – the story of animals, told with imagination, creativity and awe for the natural world. We celebrate species and the ecosystems they inhabit, scientists who conduct studies, funders who make the research possible and the irreverence of the human spirit, which makes triumph and defeat opportunities for mad trash talk. This tournament is a love letter to science, about science and from science for all who participate. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159216/original/image-20170302-14686-54ag7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159216/original/image-20170302-14686-54ag7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159216/original/image-20170302-14686-54ag7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159216/original/image-20170302-14686-54ag7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159216/original/image-20170302-14686-54ag7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159216/original/image-20170302-14686-54ag7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159216/original/image-20170302-14686-54ag7w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wolf of the Tundra, the 2016 champion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cynthia Rudzis</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Know your species</h2>
<p>March Mammal Madness was launched in 2013 when one of us (Hinde) decided to elevate existing animal bracket games that were rolling around the internet. Instead of a 16-species bracket based on “cuteness,” she created a mammal bracket for her Comparative Lactation Lab and tossed it up on her blog as a lark, thinking “Maybe my mom will play.” </p>
<p>That contest started with a <a href="https://storify.com/Mammals_Suck/mammal-march-madness">battle</a> between a <a href="http://animals.sandiegozoo.org/animals/naked-mole-rat">naked mole rat</a> and a <a href="http://www.rainforestconservation.org/species-data-sheets/mammals/dusky-titi-monkey/">dusky titi monkey</a> for the wild-card 16th seed. Soon scientists were taking to Twitter to root for their favorite species. By the end it was clear that fans expected this to become an annual event. Chris Anderson and Josh Drew became co-organizers in 2014 until today, along with paleoanthropologist <a href="http://profiles.sc-ctsi.org/kristi.lewton">Kristi Lewton</a> from 2014-2016.</p>
<p><a class="twitter-timeline" href="https://twitter.com/ConversationUS/timelines/837314695799386114">March Mammal Madness - Curated tweets by ConversationUS</a></p>
<p>One key takeaway is that battle narratives don’t always boil down to “<a href="http://anth.la.psu.edu/research/research-labs/weiss-lab/documents/CQ46_ToothAndClaw.pdf">nature, red in tooth and claw</a>.” An animal may “win” by peaceably displacing its opponent at a feeding location. Sometimes a powerful carnivore opts not to attack because there is no motivation. </p>
<p>As an example, in 2014 a type of wild dog called a <a href="http://animals.sandiegozoo.org/animals/dhole">dhole</a> faced off against a <a href="http://animals.sandiegozoo.org/animals/binturong">binturong</a>, also known as a bearcat. Although the binturong can be smaller, it won this match because the night before, the dhole had gorged on <a href="http://www.lazoo.org/animals/mammals/babirusa/">babirusa</a>. The gut passage time of wild canids is 24 to 48 hours, so she was still digesting when the battle occurred and had little incentive to fight and risk injury. </p>
<p>As the tournament plays out over several weeks, events in one round carry over into subsequent rounds. Injuries and illnesses take their toll. Sometimes an animal wrenches a knee or snaps a tooth, and just as we would see in nature, these events can send would-be champions plummeting toward defeat. And while many an excellent animal’s adaptive strategy is “He who runs or hides away, lives to graze another day,” such actions sadly constitute a forfeit in March Mammal Madness. </p>
<p>The ecology of a battle locale can also play a pivotal role. In early rounds, the higher-seeded species gets home court advantage. Once the tournament reaches the “Elite Trait,” “Final Roar” and Championship rounds, battle locations become randomized. Imagine an Antarctic-adapted leopard seal fending for itself in the Australian outback, and the ways in which species are adapted to their ecological niches become quickly apparent. </p>
<h2>Plenty of competitors</h2>
<p>Including this year’s entrants, over 250 species have competed in March Mammal Madness, representing Marine Mammals, Mighty Giants, Sexy Beasts, Fossil Taxa, Social Mammals and other groups. The 2015 competition included a Mythical Mammal division, which allowed tournament organizers to discuss human abstract thinking and how even mythical mammals reflect actual animals. For example, the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/scientists-seek-to-resurrect-the-auroch-the-extinct-beast-that-inspired-cave-paintings/2016/04/04/e1e3c38a-c5e9-11e5-a4aa-f25866ba0dc6_story.html?utm_term=.c3bc8ed9865c">aurochs</a> – a type of wild cattle that went extinct in the 17th century – is thought to have inspired the legend of the <a href="http://www.ancient.eu/Minotaur/">Minotaur</a>. </p>
<p>Each year underdogs and dark horses produce upsets, sometimes literally toppling their opponents. These twists give rise to conspiracy theories, and fans often pose detailed counterarguments to explain why battle outcomes, in their view, are unjust. </p>
<p>This year’s contest includes three new divisions: “Desert-Adapted” (including the <a href="http://members.optusnet.com.au/bilbies/About_Bilbies.htm">bilby</a>!), “Adjective Mammals” such as the <a href="http://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/mammals/c/clouded-leopard/">clouded leopard</a> and the <a href="http://www.australianwildlife.org/wildlife/burrowing-bettong.aspx">burrowing bettong</a>, and “Two Animals, One Mammal” such as the <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/c550398b-7360-472a-b863-4223d8609812/files/tiger-spotted-quoll.pdf">tiger quoll</a>. Combatants who were serious contenders in 2013-2016 but lost unexpectedly are back this year in the “Coulda Shoulda” division for another run at mammalian glory. </p>
<p>Between tournaments, the organizing team stockpiles articles about cool species and awesome scientists, along with amazing videos. From these materials we develop cohesive divisions and determine species combatants in our version of <a href="http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2016-06-27/march-madness-selection-sunday-2017-dates-schedule">Selection Sunday</a>. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"712450596217835520"}"></div></p>
<h2>Caught you learning</h2>
<p>This year over 200 educators – mainly middle and high school biology teachers – requested advance access to the bracket chart for lesson planning. This response suggests that at least 10,000 students will be playing March Mammal Madness this month. Teachers have told us that March Mammal Madness facilitates teaching about evolution, ecology and adaptation, and that the tournament format engages students who are typically less enthusiastic about science. </p>
<p>March Mammal Madness upends stereotypes of science as a dry, prescriptive discipline and shows that it can be creative and fun. Scientists talk about hypotheses and predictions, but fundamentally these are our imaginings about phenomena that are not yet known to determine what data to collect.</p>
<p>Beyond the classroom, we know from Twitter and personal testimonials that battle outcomes are regular water cooler fodder for museum staffers, scientists, families, artists, veterans and the after-work tavern crowd. Fans routinely cackle about wins and moan over losses. They also discover species they have never heard of and behaviors they couldn’t have imagined. Don’t underestimate this year’s 15th-seeded <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izizsAodOCk">grasshopper mouse</a>, a carnivorous rodent that stalks its prey and howls like a wolf.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159187/original/image-20170302-14695-of8bsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/159187/original/image-20170302-14695-of8bsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159187/original/image-20170302-14695-of8bsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159187/original/image-20170302-14695-of8bsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159187/original/image-20170302-14695-of8bsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159187/original/image-20170302-14695-of8bsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/159187/original/image-20170302-14695-of8bsr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Charon Henning</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As one nonscientist friend regularly quips, “You tricked me into learning… AGAIN!”</p>
<p>Producing March Mammal Madness is a team effort. More than 30 scientists, conservationists and enthusiasts have provided graphic design, web resources, photographs and battle narration. Scientific illustrator <a href="http://charonhenning.com/">Charon Henning</a> coordinates numerous tattoo artists to create original art of battle taxa. </p>
<p>This year’s contest starts on Monday, March 6 with a four-way battle for the wild card berth, so there’s still time to fill out those brackets. Find them at Katie Hinde’s blog, <a href="http://mammalssuck.blogspot.com/2017/02/dont-call-it-is-comeback-weve-been-here.html">Mammals Suck … Milk!</a>, and study up on the contestants at special portals created by <a href="http://libguides.asu.edu/MarchMammalMadness/HowToPlay">Arizona State University</a> and <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jmammal/pages/march_mammal_madness">Oxford University Press</a>. Then prepare to be delighted … and informed!</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73425/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>March Mammal Madness, a tournament of imaginary contests between pairs of mammals, makes science irreverent and fun. The event has thousands of fans and is used in hundreds of classrooms.Katie Hinde, Associate Professor, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State UniversityChris Anderson, Assistant Professor of Biological Sciences, Dominican UniversityJosh Drew, Lecturer and M.A. Program Advisor, Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/561102016-03-16T10:10:11Z2016-03-16T10:10:11ZHow much math do you need to win your March Madness pool?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114999/original/image-20160314-11264-u7iok0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The University of Dayton Arena, where March Madness will kick off again this year.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UDArena2.jpg">Greenstrat</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Deciding which teams to pick in your NCAA basketball pool? Then you’re faced with a classic decision problem – and here, science can help. </p>
<p>On one hand, you want to pick good teams, the “favorites,” because those teams seem more likely to win. On the other hand, you want to pick some weaker teams, the “underdogs,” so your bracket will stand out from the rest and win the pool. These two opposing forces make for an interesting math problem, because somewhere in the middle is an optimal solution.</p>
<p>In my heart, I always know which teams will win, or at least which teams I want to root for. As an academic, though, I’d rather squeeze all the fun out of it by overanalyzing the situation. Let’s do that here! </p>
<h2>Estimating the likelihood of winning</h2>
<p>To find the best way to build our own brackets, we need to first build a mathematical model for simulating the tournament.</p>
<p>Suppose we model the tournament by replacing basketball games with coin flips, except with coins that don’t land evenly heads or tails but rather are weighted to reflect each game’s actual odds. For example, when West Virginia plays Murray State on Friday, instead of playing the game, we just flip a coin that gives the higher-seeded West Virginia a greater chance of winning. We’d need to flip one of these coins for every first-round game, every potential second-round game, and for each possible matchup in the tournament. Each coin must be weighted in a way that models the actual game, so its probabilities must be determined by the specific matchup.</p>
<p>Where should we get these probabilities? The NCAA provides you with a handy little number next to each team, the team’s seed. For the first few rounds, each game has a favorite, and that choice was made by people with a tremendous amount of basketball knowledge. You could look back over history and observe that when a #5 seed plays a #12 seed, <a href="http://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/march-madness-seeds-5-vs-12">the #5 seed wins 65 percent of the time</a>.</p>
<p>But there are plenty of other methods: <a href="http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/">Las Vegas betting odds</a> give a point spread for each game, and based on those teams’ scoring averages, you can convert the point spread into a probability of winning. Computer rating systems abound, and you can convert these ratings into probabilities by considering the ratings difference between two teams – a method known as the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/2334029">Bradley-Terry model</a>. Some more sophisticated systems can even produce a probability custom fit to the two teams in the game.</p>
<h2>Know the odds? It’s still not easy</h2>
<p>So, pick your favorite method. Even then, things aren’t as simple as they seem. The most likely outcome of the tournament is not necessarily that all favorites win. Look at this example:</p>
<figure class="align- zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115040/original/image-20160315-17748-1o9g33x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115040/original/image-20160315-17748-1o9g33x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115040/original/image-20160315-17748-1o9g33x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115040/original/image-20160315-17748-1o9g33x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115040/original/image-20160315-17748-1o9g33x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115040/original/image-20160315-17748-1o9g33x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115040/original/image-20160315-17748-1o9g33x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115040/original/image-20160315-17748-1o9g33x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=496&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An example bracket for a four-team tournament.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Imagine a four-team tournament with teams A, B, C and D as shown. Assume that A always beats B, and C beats D with probability 0.6. Finally, A always beats D, but has only 0.5 probability of beating C. The only possible outcomes are: A wins over C (probability 0.3), C wins over A (probability 0.3) and A wins over D (probability 0.4). The most likely outcome contains the upset D beats C.</p>
<p>Further complicating the situation, the rules of your office or friends’ pool probably mean that picking correctly in later-round games earns more points than early-round picks. How do you pick a bracket that gets you those crucial late-round points?</p>
<p>In one of the first analytic papers on this subject, <a href="http://faculty.som.yale.edu/EdKaplan/documents/march_madness_and_the_office_pool.pdf">Kaplan and Garstka</a> gave an algorithm for deciding which picks are expected to score the highest. Their method builds a list of 64 brackets backwards, round-by-round, starting each one with a different team as the winner. For example, Duke’s bracket starts with just Duke, and adds one round at a time, doubling in size but always keeping Duke as the winner. In the end, the algorithm selects the best from each of the 64 team-specific brackets.</p>
<p>This doesn’t sound like something a human would do, and in fact it is best implemented by a computer. The brackets produced tend to be “<a href="http://www.dearsportsfan.com/2015/03/16/ways-to-fill-out-a-march-madness-bracket-chalk/">chalk</a>” – in which higher-ranked teams are most likely to win – but do not always select the higher seed. And Kaplan and Garstka did observe that their algorithm did better than just automatically picking the high seeds.</p>
<h2>It’s about winning, not just scoring</h2>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115000/original/image-20160314-11299-8g493n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115000/original/image-20160314-11299-8g493n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/115000/original/image-20160314-11299-8g493n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115000/original/image-20160314-11299-8g493n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115000/original/image-20160314-11299-8g493n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115000/original/image-20160314-11299-8g493n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115000/original/image-20160314-11299-8g493n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/115000/original/image-20160314-11299-8g493n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You won’t win this trophy, but math can help you you pick correctly the team that does.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:NABC_NCAA_Trophy.jpg">randomduck</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>To this point our model is ignoring an important fact: the goal of picking your bracket is not to achieve a high score, but to win a pool against other people. And people behave irrationally. </p>
<p>In a psychological experiment, <a href="https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Match-Madness-Probability-Matching-in-Prediction-Mccrea-Hirt/75518ee6c3492bc35b034a9dd3cc77b9be6c786d">McCrea and Hirt</a> found evidence that pool participants pursue “probability matching”: if a collection of games (say, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2015/03/16/a-no-12-seed-always-upsets-a-no-5-seed-in-the-ncaa-tournament-who-will-it-be-this-year/">the 5-12 matchups</a>) has historically produced an upset one-third of the time, people will attempt to predict upsets in about one-third of those games in their brackets. In fact, people do no better than random chance at making such predictions, and so hurt their overall chances in the pool.</p>
<p>On the other hand, when choosing the tournament winner, people flock to the favorites. Every year, <a href="http://games.espn.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2018/en/whopickedwhom">ESPN Tournament Challenge publishes data on its 11 million entries</a>. In 2015, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20150911235151/http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2015/en/whopickedwhom">48 percent of their players</a> had selected prohibitive favorite Kentucky as champion. Picking the correct champion is important, but if everyone else has the same opinion then you need to pick a bunch of other games well, too. </p>
<p>This brings us back to what makes this problem interesting: you need to pick teams that win, but not the same teams as everyone else – so you come out on top in your pool. </p>
<p>To improve your odds in your pool, you need to model the other players you’re up against. Each year, large, free, Internet pools publish data on player behavior, and they publish it before your brackets are due on Thursday morning. </p>
<p>Let’s assume people make their picks the same way we modeled the games, by flipping biased coins for each game in the bracket. The national Internet pools give exactly the data you need to properly bias the coins. Nobody I know actually picks their bracket this way, but it turns out that real (human-picked) brackets and randomized brackets have nearly the same score distribution.</p>
<h2>Playing the odds means a long, long wait</h2>
<p><a href="http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/opre.1070.0448?journalCode=opre">In my own research</a>, we used this model to calculate optimal picks. The brackets produced tend to be very conservative in the first two rounds, include one or two surprises in the Final Four, and a strong but not heavily favored champion. They never, ever, pick an upset in a 5-12 game. According to the computers, these picks increase the chances of winning a big Internet pool by a factor of 100 to 1,000. </p>
<p>This sounds great. It is great! But there’s a catch: the NCAA basketball tournament happens only once a year. And your probability of winning is very low indeed – even with a boost from math and computer analytics. It will likely take thousands of years before the strategy pays off.</p>
<p>And that’s the beautiful thing about scientific studies of the NCAA tournament. Serious modeling and data analysis quail before the absurdity of predicting such a notoriously unpredictable event. After a decade of study, the only things we really know are that the tournament is madness and that your friend whose picks are based on mascots will probably win your pool.</p>
<p><em>Editor’s note: This is an updated version of an article originally posted on March 16, 2016.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56110/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bryan Clair does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>You want to pick the ‘favorites,’ to get accuracy points. But you also want to pick some ‘underdogs,’ to set yourself apart from the pack. Somewhere in the middle is an optimal solution.Bryan Clair, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Computer Science, Saint Louis UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/561942016-03-14T15:28:09Z2016-03-14T15:28:09ZMarch Madness means money – it’s time to talk about who’s getting paid<p>The NCAA men’s basketball tournament is down to the Sweet Sixteen. And from now until the final on April 4, CBS Sports and Turner Broadcasting will bring you every game, focusing on the buzzer beaters, the Cinderella stories, the athletes overcoming the odds.</p>
<p>It’ll all end, as it always does, with confetti guns and net-cutting, and a video montage of highlights played over <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOu6bCDiZm4">“One Shining Moment.”</a></p>
<p>What you won’t see much about is who benefits financially by participating in a tournament that generates hundreds of millions of dollars for the NCAA. Yes, the players earn scholarships, as will athletes in nonrevenue sports, whose schooling is also funded through tournament profits. </p>
<p>But one thing that gets very little attention is the fact that the men who put the basketball players through drills every day stand to go home with substantial bonuses on top of their already handsome salaries.</p>
<p>If the media – including CBS and Turner, but other sports news outlets as well – started to note that routinely, it would add balance to coverage that makes it seem as if the whole tournament is just played for laughs. </p>
<p>Why be the killjoy at the national party that is March Madness? And why accent coaches’ pay in particular?</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/kOu6bCDiZm4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Money-making machine</h2>
<p>The answer is that coverage of the tournament focuses on the competition – the games themselves – and the surrounding hoopla so narrowly that the overall image of the three-week event is incomplete to the point of being disingenuous. </p>
<p>It all looks like so much fun and nothing else. But here’s the real deal. The tournament is <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/finances/revenue">the primary money-maker for the entire NCAA</a>, accounting for the vast majority of the <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/finances">US$905 million</a>in revenue it reported in its latest financial statement, for the year ended August 31.</p>
<p>Most of this money comes from the lucrative television contracts owing to the very high ratings the games draw. In 2006, for example, <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/march-madness-follow-the-money/">CBS and Turner agreed to pay</a> $11 billion to host the tournament for 14 years beginning in 2010 – about $771 million annually. </p>
<p>Where do these millions of dollars go?</p>
<p>Not to the cities, whose taxpayers bear some of the costs of hosting the games. <a href="http://www.nku.edu/%7Elipping/PHE385/ncaa.pdf">Research shows</a> the host cities don’t get much indirect economic benefit to show for it either. </p>
<p>In fact, much of what the NCAA makes goes back to athletic conferences – college sports leagues, for the uninitiated – and schools. </p>
<p>As the sports governing body puts it on its <a href="http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/finances/revenue">website</a>: “All but 4 percent of NCAA revenue is either returned directly to member conferences and institutions or used to support championships and programs that benefit student-athletes.”</p>
<p>In other words, a healthy chunk of the whole college sports scene is paid for by March Madness, the single biggest moment in the college sports calendar.</p>
<p>Of course, the athletes themselves don’t get compensated beyond their scholarships, despite <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/08/11/the-average-ncaa-basketball-player-is-worth-212080/">how much money</a> they bring in. They are playing for pride, for the chance to be champions and for the attention that brings. </p>
<p>However, a lot of other people – in addition to working for all those things – do get compensated. And at the top of this list are the guys on the bench with the players – their coaches.</p>
<h2>A right to know</h2>
<p>See, while tournament money doesn’t go directly from the NCAA to coaches, it does go to schools, who pay the salaries of coaches, who often receive bonuses for various performance metrics, including their teams making and advancing in the NCAA tournament.</p>
<p>Many of the 68 schools that will play in the 2016 tournament are public universities and colleges, which means two things. </p>
<p>One, those coaching salaries, <a href="http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/mens-basketball/coach">many in the millions</a>, are the people’s money, and the public has a right to know how its cash is being spent. It’s arguable that the media – particularly independent news organizations reporting on the tournament – even have an obligation to remind the world of coaches’ contracts at this time of year. </p>
<p>Two, in most cases, the salaries and bonuses of those coaches are a matter of public record. It’s not hard to request the contracts of basketball coaches or find them online, so the media’s task would not be onerous. </p>
<p>Often, journalists may be so caught up in game coverage they don’t think to check – that’s my excuse for why I didn’t look up the coaches’ contracts when I covered the Final Four in 2012 with the Associated Press. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, it’s not hard to find the contract details for most coaches at public universities. </p>
<p>One of the most high-profile games in the Sweet Sixteen this year, for example, will pit Indiana (head coach Tom Crean) against North Carolina (coached by Roy Williams). </p>
<p>While their players will get nothing for winning that game, <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/1344009-tom-crean-contract.html">Crean stands to earn a bonus of $50,000</a> for a victory, and <a href="http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/college/mens-basketball/article24971146.html">Williams would get a bump of $200,000</a> if the Tar Heels advance.</p>
<p>Worth mentioning on TV?</p>
<p><em>USA Today</em> has a notable tradition of creating a database of <a href="http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/mens-basketball/coach/">tournament coaches’ salaries</a> that includes a “maximum bonus” column, and it isn’t the only paper that has shone a light on the hundreds of millions of dollars generated by the NCAA tournament and the people it benefits. Yet those stories tend to be one-offs that fade away quickly at a time when Americans fill out <a href="http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/12465741/estimated-70-million-brackets-9-million-bets-ncaa-tournament">40 million tournament brackets</a> and typically wager about $9 billion - more than double during the Super Bowl - most of it illegally.</p>
<p>Once the ball is tipped, fans care mostly about winning.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114906/original/image-20160314-11302-kgut3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114906/original/image-20160314-11302-kgut3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114906/original/image-20160314-11302-kgut3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114906/original/image-20160314-11302-kgut3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=404&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114906/original/image-20160314-11302-kgut3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114906/original/image-20160314-11302-kgut3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114906/original/image-20160314-11302-kgut3p.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=508&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fans are expected to wager $9 billion during the tournament, more than double bets on the Super Bowl.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NCAA brackets via www.shutterstock.com</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why we should do it</h2>
<p>But the purpose of the bonus exercise wouldn’t actually be reform – it would be about creating well-rounded sports coverage and informing the public.</p>
<p>It’s the difference between a single story, or series of stories, as in the case of recent reporting on college sports finances by <em><a href="http://www.poynter.org/2016/how-2-washington-post-reporters-blew-open-excess-spending-in-college-sports/392532/">The Washington Post</a>,</em> and a steady reminder that could change the nature of how the media frames the sports landscape.</p>
<p>If CBS/Turner made the first move toward that by flashing an infographic on the screen early in each of the NCAA tournament’s 65 game with the coaches’ salaries and potential bonuses at stake, then discussed it for 30 seconds, it would help the American public understand at deeper level the business side of March Madness.</p>
<p>It also would send a message that the media is willing to be transparent about financial implications of the events it covers. That’s nothing more or less than good reporting.</p>
<p><em>This article has been updated to include the latest revenue figures from the NCAA’s financial statement, remove a reference to the start of the tournament and add a fresh example of coach bonuses.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/56194/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Affleck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The NCAA men’s basketball tournament is a huge money-maker, but you wouldn’t know it from the coverage on TV.John Affleck, Knight Chair in Sports Journalism and Society, Penn StateLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/557452016-03-14T10:06:24Z2016-03-14T10:06:24ZIs your March Madness bracket really better than mine?<p>Participating in a March Madness bracket office pool this year? Don’t rely too much on experts’ picks or overestimate your chance of winning. </p>
<p>And if you’re feeling confident about your bracket, you should know that just the act of trying to predict the winner of each of the 63 games is enough to boost your confidence you’ll come out on top.</p>
<p>In one study, we gave <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dae_Hee_Kwak/publication/270765094_The_Overestimation_Phenomenon_in_a_Skill-Based_Gaming_Context_The_Case_of_March_Madness_Pools/links/54b684f60cf24eb34f6d28d4.pdf">empty brackets to 81 college students</a>. Half of them were specifically asked to fill out the bracket; the other half were given the bracket but not asked to fill it out. They all were asked to project their winning probabilities – if they had completed the bracket, how good they thought it was, and if they hadn’t, how good they could have made it if they had tried.</p>
<p>When we adjusted for participants’ past bracket experience and basketball knowledge, we found that people who filled out a bracket showed greater confidence in winning than those who did not make any selections. Simply putting some effort into making picks increased their belief in having a good chance of winning. </p>
<h2>The illusion of control</h2>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/114871/original/image-20160311-11285-1rar5q1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The size of this bracket may indicate its maker’s confidence.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/armydre2008/16671230120/in/photolist-rpbpU5-bDc9q4-9t4HD2-7KNKgW-ekYBsi-maGgaF-692d9z-maGXsc-maHSks-DiFqa-kWPbyu-rDrd3Y-9qJPvd-68ExZe-9sXrXr-maGe9g-kxafds-6cRUtB-bERX2K-e5oXYQ-66mULr-e41gYK-br8HgQ-kE45ea-kE4xPD-kE6euQ-68TWhn-kE4uVT-kE4wZn-kE42uH-kE4xax-9s2weT-kE4wEV-kE41H2-kE6enf-kE43kv-kE6bnC-kE6fBj-61Pbsn-kE6bTN-kE4yZz-kE43HV-kE6g6A-kE4AZM-kE41CT-kE43Ug-kE4AoM-kE42mX-kE6eRm-kE4B1D">frankieleon/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>My interviews with participants showed that filling out a bracket will also encourage consumers to watch more games with heightened levels of arousal and excitement. This is critical for television networks, and for sponsors who spend millions of dollars on rights and advertising. No wonder the NCAA, which strictly bans all forms of legal or illegal gambling on college sports, releases a free downloadable “<a href="http://i.turner.ncaa.com/dr/ncaa/ncaa7/release//sites/default/files/external/printable-bracket/2016/bracket-ncaa.pdf">Official Bracket</a>” every year.</p>
<p>Feeling confident is a good thing, as I teach my young son all the time, but not when you are gambling. We often make biased judgments, believing correct picks are due to “skill” but chalking up losses to “bad luck.” Such biasing judgments only <a href="http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fpsyt.2013.00036/full">reinforce the illusory perception of control</a> over what is actually a random outcome.</p>
<p>Psychologists have found that “<a href="http://web.mit.edu/curhan/www/docs/Articles/biases/76_J_Occupational_Organizational_Psychology_53_(OCreevy).pdf">illusion of control</a>” is prevalent when chance is involved and has been widely examined in <a href="http://www.seeitmarket.com/the-art-of-trading-and-the-illusion-of-control-14679/">trading</a>, gambling and <a href="http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/26/the-science-of-why-fantasy-sports-are-so-popular.aspx">fantasy sports</a>. Research has also found that <a href="http://psycnet.apa.org.proxy.lib.umich.edu/psycinfo/1998-00120-002">illusory perception in winning is heightened</a> when skill-relevant factors are involved, such as personal involvement, knowledge, competition and familiarity with the task.</p>
<h2>Confidence doesn’t improve accuracy, but does raise betting stakes</h2>
<p>March Madness brackets provide ample opportunities for basketball mavens to believe that they can make accurate predictions – even though that may not be the case.</p>
<p>You make personal selections, rely on stats and expert knowledge, and usually compete with your office mates or friends, or even online with anonymous others (such as on <a href="http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2016/en/">ESPN</a>). A second study, published alongside the first, showed this.</p>
<p>In 2011, we <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dae_Hee_Kwak/publication/270765094_The_Overestimation_Phenomenon_in_a_Skill-Based_Gaming_Context_The_Case_of_March_Madness_Pools/links/54b684f60cf24eb34f6d28d4.pdf">ran a mock tournament</a> with real prizes (US$100 gift card) involving college basketball fans. We wanted to see if people who were more confident about their picks were actually more correct than their less confident peers. After all the participants made their selections, we asked how confident they were that they would be in the top 10 percent for overall bracket accuracy by the end of the tournament.</p>
<p>Based on their self-rating of confidence in winning, we grouped participants into high- and low-confidence sections and tracked their actual performance after three weeks of the tournament. Interestingly, we found no difference between these groups: that confidence had no effect on improving accuracy.</p>
<p>Moreover, the confident fans would have lost 2.56 times more money than the less confident group if they had actually been betting on their results. The members of the more confident group said they would wager an average of $22.95, while those who were less confident projected betting $8.85 on average.</p>
<h2>Perfection is impossible, even with expert knowledge</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/finalfourseeds">In the same year</a>, three basketball analysts from ESPN, CBS and <em>Sports Illustrated</em> made their Final Four predictions. Only one analyst correctly picked one school out of the four; when we compared the picks of <a href="http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html">so-called “experts”</a> to the nonexperts in our study, we found neither was more successful.</p>
<p>So confidence in winning a pool does not necessarily mean that you will win some cash or free lunch from your colleague. <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/warren-buffett-billion-bracket-ncaa-tournament-perfect-odds-of-perfect">Warren Buffett once announced he would give $1 billion</a> to anyone who picked a perfect bracket. </p>
<p>No one ever came up with any brackets even near perfect, which shouldn’t be surprising. The chance for the perfect bracket is somewhere north of <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/duke-math-professor-says-odds-of-a-perfect-bracket-are-one-in-2-4-trillion">1 in 120 billion</a> (or maybe a couple trillion, or even a few quintillion). But we know for sure that people will still come back this year and fill out their brackets online, offline or on their smartphones.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">DePaul University Professor of Mathematics Jeffrey Bergen discusses probability and brackets.</span></figcaption>
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<p>While we found that overconfidence does not translate into winning, we did learn that it boosts enjoyment.</p>
<p>It is the excitement from overconfidence that brings people back to the bracket every year. Fill out a bracket and boost your confidence: that is perhaps all you need for enjoying watching the tournament with your colleagues and friends. Don’t get too serious, though. You might end up buying lunch for your office mate who picked his teams solely based on jersey colors.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55745/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dae Hee Kwak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Simply filling out a bracket – even with random or uninformed choices – is enough to boost your confidence in success, and to get you to put more money on the line.Dae Hee Kwak, Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.