tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/microprocessor-18757/articlesMicroprocessor – The Conversation2023-12-18T16:17:12Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200442023-12-18T16:17:12Z2023-12-18T16:17:12ZA new supercomputer aims to closely mimic the human brain — it could help unlock the secrets of the mind and advance AI<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566252/original/file-20231218-15-hajmbj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=19%2C9%2C6470%2C3940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/businessman-touching-digital-human-brain-cell-582507070">Sdecoret / Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A supercomputer scheduled to go online in April 2024 will rival the estimated rate of operations in the human brain, <a href="https://www.westernsydney.edu.au/newscentre/news_centre/more_news_stories/world_first_supercomputer_capable_of_brain-scale_simulation_being_built_at_western_sydney_university">according to researchers in Australia</a>. The machine, called DeepSouth, is capable of performing 228 trillion operations per second. </p>
<p>It’s the world’s first supercomputer capable of simulating networks of neurons and synapses (key biological structures that make up our nervous system) at the scale of the human brain.</p>
<p>DeepSouth belongs to an approach <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43588-021-00184-y">known as neuromorphic computing</a>, which aims to mimic the biological processes of the human brain. It will be run from the International Centre for Neuromorphic Systems at Western Sydney University.</p>
<p>Our brain is the most amazing computing machine we know. By distributing its
computing power to billions of small units (neurons) that interact through trillions of connections (synapses), the brain can rival the most powerful supercomputers in the world, while requiring only the same power used by a fridge lamp bulb.</p>
<p>Supercomputers, meanwhile, generally take up lots of space and need large amounts of electrical power to run. The world’s most powerful supercomputer, the <a href="https://www.hpe.com/uk/en/compute/hpc/cray/oak-ridge-national-laboratory.html">Hewlett Packard Enterprise Frontier</a>, can perform just over one quintillion operations per second. It covers 680 square metres (7,300 sq ft) and requires 22.7 megawatts (MW) to run. </p>
<p>Our brains can perform the same number of operations per second with just 20 watts of power, while weighing just 1.3kg-1.4kg. Among other things, neuromorphic computing aims to unlock the secrets of this amazing efficiency.</p>
<h2>Transistors at the limits</h2>
<p>On June 30 1945, the mathematician and physicist <a href="https://www.ias.edu/von-neumann">John von Neumann</a> described the design of a new machine, the <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/194089">Electronic Discrete Variable Automatic Computer (Edvac)</a>. This effectively defined the modern electronic computer as we know it. </p>
<p>My smartphone, the laptop I am using to write this article and the most powerful supercomputer in the world all share the same fundamental structure introduced by von Neumann almost 80 years ago. <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/computer-science/von-neumann-architecture">These all have distinct processing and memory units</a>, where data and instructions are stored in the memory and computed by a processor.</p>
<p>For decades, the number of transistors on a microchip doubled approximately every two years, <a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/591665">an observation known as Moore’s Law</a>. This allowed us to have smaller and cheaper computers. </p>
<p>However, transistor sizes are now approaching the atomic scale. At these tiny sizes, excessive heat generation is a problem, as is a phenomenon called quantum tunnelling, which interferes with the functioning of the transistors. <a href="https://qz.com/852770/theres-a-limit-to-how-small-we-can-make-transistors-but-the-solution-is-photonic-chips#:%7E:text=They're%20made%20of%20silicon,we%20can%20make%20a%20transistor.">This is slowing down</a> and will eventually halt transistor miniaturisation.</p>
<p>To overcome this issue, scientists are exploring new approaches to
computing, starting from the powerful computer we all have hidden in our heads, the human brain. Our brains do not work according to John von Neumann’s model of the computer. They don’t have separate computing and memory areas. </p>
<p>They instead work by connecting billions of nerve cells that communicate information in the form of electrical impulses. Information can be passed from <a href="https://qbi.uq.edu.au/brain-basics/brain/brain-physiology/action-potentials-and-synapses">one neuron to the next through a junction called a synapse</a>. The organisation of neurons and synapses in the brain is flexible, scalable and efficient. </p>
<p>So in the brain – and unlike in a computer – memory and computation are governed by the same neurons and synapses. Since the late 1980s, scientists have been studying this model with the intention of importing it to computing.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Microchip." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566265/original/file-20231218-25-yjbwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/566265/original/file-20231218-25-yjbwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566265/original/file-20231218-25-yjbwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566265/original/file-20231218-25-yjbwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566265/original/file-20231218-25-yjbwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566265/original/file-20231218-25-yjbwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/566265/original/file-20231218-25-yjbwxy.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The continuing miniaturisation of transistors on microchips is limited by the laws of physics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/close-presentation-new-generation-microchip-gloved-691548583">Gorodenkoff / Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Imitation of life</h2>
<p>Neuromorphic computers are based on intricate networks of simple, elementary processors (which act like the brain’s neurons and synapses). The main advantage of this is that these machines <a href="https://www.electronicsworld.co.uk/advances-in-parallel-processing-with-neuromorphic-analogue-chip-implementations/34337/">are inherently “parallel”</a>. </p>
<p>This means that, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.95.3.933">as with neurons and synapses</a>, virtually all the processors in a computer can potentially be operating simultaneously, communicating in tandem.</p>
<p>In addition, because the computations performed by individual neurons and synapses are very simple compared with traditional computers, the energy consumption is orders of magnitude smaller. Although neurons are sometimes thought of as processing units, and synapses as memory units, they contribute to both processing and storage. In other words, data is already located where the computation requires it.</p>
<p>This speeds up the brain’s computing in general because there is no separation between memory and processor, which in classical (von Neumann) machines causes a slowdown. But it also avoids the need to perform a specific task of accessing data from a main memory component, as happens in conventional computing systems and consumes a considerable amount of energy. </p>
<p>The principles we have just described are the main inspiration for DeepSouth. This is not the only neuromorphic system currently active. It is worth mentioning the <a href="https://www.humanbrainproject.eu">Human Brain Project (HBP)</a>, funded under an <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/futurium/en/content/fet-flagships.html">EU initiative</a>. The HBP was operational from 2013 to 2023, and led to BrainScaleS, a machine located in Heidelberg, in Germany, that emulates the way that neurons and synapses work. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.humanbrainproject.eu/en/science-development/focus-areas/neuromorphic-computing/hardware/">BrainScaleS</a> can simulate the way that neurons “spike”, the way that an electrical impulse travels along a neuron in our brains. This would make BrainScaleS an ideal candidate to investigate the mechanics of cognitive processes and, in future, mechanisms underlying serious neurological and neurodegenerative diseases.</p>
<p>Because they are engineered to mimic actual brains, neuromorphic computers could be the beginning of a turning point. Offering sustainable and affordable computing power and allowing researchers to evaluate models of neurological systems, they are an ideal platform for a range of applications. They have the potential to both advance our understanding of the brain and offer new approaches to artificial intelligence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220044/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Domenico Vicinanza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Neuromorphic computers aim to one day replicate the amazing efficiency of the brain.Domenico Vicinanza, Associate Professor of Intelligent Systems and Data Science, Anglia Ruskin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1599902021-05-20T12:27:00Z2021-05-20T12:27:00ZShape-shifting computer chip thwarts an army of hackers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401722/original/file-20210519-19-1m48kfo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5656%2C3166&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Morpheus secure processor works like a puzzle that keeps changing before hackers have a chance to solve it.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/TOOhhlGHOsQ">Alan de la Cruz via Unsplash</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take about interesting academic work.</em></p>
<h2>The big idea</h2>
<p>We have developed and tested a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3297858.3304037">secure new computer processor</a> that thwarts hackers by randomly changing its underlying structure, thus making it virtually impossible to hack. </p>
<p>Last summer, 525 security researchers spent three months trying to hack our Morpheus processor as well as others. <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/semiconductors/processors/morpheus-turns-a-cpu-into-a-rubiks-cube-to-defeat-hackers">All attempts against Morpheus failed</a>. This study was part of a program sponsored by the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Program Agency to <a href="https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/computing/embedded-systems/darpa-hacks-its-secure-hardware-fends-off-most-attacks">design a secure processor</a> that could protect vulnerable software. DARPA <a href="https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2020-01-28">released the results on the program to the public</a> for the first time in January 2021.</p>
<p>A processor is the piece of computer hardware that runs software programs. Since a processor underlies all software systems, a secure processor has the potential to protect any software running on it from attack. Our team at the University of Michigan first developed Morpheus, a secure processor that thwarts attacks by turning the computer into a puzzle, in 2019.</p>
<p>A processor has an architecture – x86 for most laptops and ARM for most phones – which is the set of instructions software needs to run on the processor. Processors also <a href="https://www.computerhope.com/jargon/m/microarchitecture.htm">have a microarchitecture</a>, or the “guts” that enable the execution of the instruction set, the speed of this execution and how much power it consumes.</p>
<p>Hackers need to be intimately familiar with the details of the microarchitecture to <a href="https://theconversation.com/microprocessor-designers-realize-security-must-be-a-primary-concern-98044">graft their malicious code, or malware, onto vulnerable systems</a>. To stop attacks, Morpheus randomizes these implementation details to turn the system into a puzzle that hackers must solve before conducting security exploits. From one Morpheus machine to another, details like the commands the processor executes or the format of program data change in random ways. Because this happens at the microarchitecture level, software running on the processor is unaffected.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401701/original/file-20210519-19-1t96mso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a fan on top of a metal square in the middle of a computer circuit board" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401701/original/file-20210519-19-1t96mso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/401701/original/file-20210519-19-1t96mso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401701/original/file-20210519-19-1t96mso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401701/original/file-20210519-19-1t96mso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401701/original/file-20210519-19-1t96mso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401701/original/file-20210519-19-1t96mso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/401701/original/file-20210519-19-1t96mso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Morpheus computer processor, inside the square beneath the fan on this circuit board, rapidly and continuously changes its underlying structure to thwart hackers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Todd Austin</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A skilled hacker could reverse-engineer a Morpheus machine in as little as a few hours, if given the chance. To counter this, Morpheus also changes the microarchitecture every few hundred milliseconds. Thus, not only do attackers have to reverse-engineer the microachitecture, but they have to do it very fast. With Morpheus, a hacker is confronted with a computer that has never been seen before and will never be seen again.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>To conduct a security exploit, hackers use vulnerabilities in software to get inside a device. Once inside, they <a href="https://theconversation.com/guarding-against-the-possible-spectre-in-every-machine-89825">graft their malware</a> onto the device. Malware is designed to infect the host device to steal sensitive data or spy on users.</p>
<p>The typical approach to computer security is to fix individual software vulnerabilities to keep hackers out. For these patch-based techniques to succeed, programmers must write perfect software without any bugs. But ask any programmer, and the idea of creating a perfect program is laughable. Bugs are everywhere, and security bugs are the most difficult to find because they don’t impair a program’s normal operation. </p>
<p>Morpheus takes a distinct approach to security by augmenting the underlying processor to prevent attackers from grafting malware onto the device. With this approach, Morpheus protects any vulnerable software that runs on it. </p>
<h2>What other research is being done</h2>
<p>For the longest time, processor designers considered security a problem for software programmers, since programmers made the software bugs that lead to security concerns. But recently computer designers have discovered that hardware can help protect software. </p>
<p>Academic efforts, such as <a href="https://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/research/security/ctsrd/cheri/">Capability Hardware Enhanced RISC Instructions</a> at the University of Cambridge, have demonstrated strong protection against memory bugs. Commercial efforts have begun as well, such as Intel’s soon-to-be-released <a href="https://newsroom.intel.com/editorials/intel-cet-answers-call-protect-common-malware-threats/">Control-flow Enforcement Technology</a>. </p>
<p>Morpheus takes a notably different approach of ignoring the bugs and instead randomizes its internal implementation to thwart exploitation of bugs. Fortunately, these are complementary techniques, and combining them will likely make systems even more difficult to attack.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>We are looking at how the fundamental design aspects of Morpheus can be applied to protect sensitive data on people’s devices and in the cloud. In addition to randomizing the implementation details of a system, how can we randomize data in a way that maintains privacy while not being a burden to software programmers?</p>
<p>[<em>Research into coronavirus and other news from science</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters/science-editors-picks-71/?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=science-corona-research">Subscribe to The Conversation’s new science newsletter</a>.]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/159990/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Austin receives funding from DARPA, which supported the development of the Morpheus secure CPU through DARPA Contract HR0011-18-C-0019. He owns shares in Agita Labs, which is commercializing a derivative of the Morpheus technology. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lauren Biernacki receives funding from DARPA, which supported the development of the Morpheus secure CPU through DARPA Contract HR0011-18-C-0019.</span></em></p>Most computer security focuses on software, but computer processors are vulnerable to hackers, too. An experimental secure processor changes its underlying structure before hackers can figure it out.Todd Austin, Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of MichiganLauren Biernacki, Ph.D. Candidate in Computer Science & Engineering, University of MichiganLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1549992021-02-10T14:33:01Z2021-02-10T14:33:01ZNvidia’s US$40 billion deal to buy Arm is all but dead – it’s a classic example of geopolitics killing innovation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383355/original/file-20210209-23-fj234v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The chips are most definitely down. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/28-june-2019-bishkek-kyrgyzstan-nvidia-1594183450">Konstantin Savusia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Under normal circumstances, US tech giant Nvidia’s takeover of British chip designer Arm for US$40 billion (£29 billion) would have sailed through without registering beyond the computing industry. Instead, it has made <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a3adccc9-678e-44ef-bdb5-e847ecb7de8c">international headlines</a>, with UK and EU monopolies regulators launching an in-depth investigation after outcry from competitors. </p>
<p>In effect, the deal is pretty much dead before it starts. At the heart of this lies a row about technological sovereignty. So what is going on?</p>
<p>If you are a serious gamer, you’ll probably know Nvidia. It predominantly makes <a href="https://www.itpro.co.uk/hardware/30399/what-is-a-gpu">graphics processing units</a>, or GPUs – chipsets traditionally used for graphic rendering and virtualisation, which is how computer games create lifelike worlds. GPUs have been a niche market compared to the traditional microprocessors made by companies like Intel, worth <a href="https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/graphic-processing-unit-market#:%7E:text=The%20global%20GPU%20market%20size,33.6%25%20from%202020%20to%202027.">about US$20 billion</a> a year versus <a href="https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/microprocessor-market#:%7E:text=The%20global%20microprocessor%20market%20size,4.1%25%20from%202020%20to%202027.">over US$80 billion</a> for microprocessors.</p>
<p>But a few years ago, some smart people figured out that GPUs are also great at machine learning and cryptocurrency mining. Amazon, Facebook, Google and Tesla have all become customers of Nvidia, and its share price has surged since 2019. The company is now worth over US$350 billion, <a href="https://www.dogsofthedow.com/largest-companies-by-market-cap.htm">making it</a> the 14th largest in the world. </p>
<p><strong>Nvidia share price chart</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383333/original/file-20210209-13-9weo4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Chart showing Nvidia share price over time." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383333/original/file-20210209-13-9weo4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383333/original/file-20210209-13-9weo4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383333/original/file-20210209-13-9weo4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383333/original/file-20210209-13-9weo4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383333/original/file-20210209-13-9weo4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383333/original/file-20210209-13-9weo4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383333/original/file-20210209-13-9weo4x.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/stock-price-history">Macrotrends</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why Nvidia wants Arm</h2>
<p>Arm is a bit more complicated. It doesn’t manufacture anything, but develops and designs the architecture of processors. It licenses this intellectual property to companies like Samsung, Nvidia and fellow chipmaker Qualcomm. They in turn sell components to Tesla, Apple and other final users.</p>
<p>Arm receives both licence fees and royalties based on eventual production volumes. Think of it like an author making money from a book publisher. You get paid by Random House on how many books you sell through Amazon, but besides the manuscript, you don’t control anything at all. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383356/original/file-20210209-23-1x7i2qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Someone holding up an iPhone" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383356/original/file-20210209-23-1x7i2qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383356/original/file-20210209-23-1x7i2qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383356/original/file-20210209-23-1x7i2qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383356/original/file-20210209-23-1x7i2qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=750&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383356/original/file-20210209-23-1x7i2qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383356/original/file-20210209-23-1x7i2qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383356/original/file-20210209-23-1x7i2qe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=943&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where the Arm is actually the heart.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/los-angeles-california-usa-november-11-1853655838">Pickaxe Media</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Arm is a big deal because it has captured more than a 90% share in the mobile market. That is, almost all mobile phones today are based on Arm’s architecture. Whether it’s a Samsung, Huawei or iPhone, at the most basic level, they have the same origin.</p>
<p>Nvidia’s interest in a takeover is reminiscent of <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/2018/06/04/microsoft-to-acquire-github-for-7-5-billion/#:%7E:text=%E2%80%94%20June%204%2C%202018%20%E2%80%94%20Microsoft,collaborate%20to%20create%20the%20future.">Microsoft purchasing GitHub</a> in 2018. GitHub provides a code-sharing and publishing service that’s akin to Reddit for software programmers. </p>
<p>GitHub’s open-source approach has made it the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Library-of-Alexandria">Library of Alexandria</a> for code examples. Microsoft won’t be receiving much immediate financial payback from the purchase. Instead, it is gaining access to the legions of developers who use GitHub’s code repository products on a daily basis. This data can then feed into Microsoft’s development and research. Which is, of course, where the next blockbuster will hopefully come.</p>
<p>This is what Nvidia wants as well. It has been riding high on the wave of artificial intelligence, but has to diversify away from being a one-hit wonder that makes only GPUs. </p>
<p>Yet it is always risky to diversify into new areas. Going into healthcare or self-driving cars like Google? What about mobile payment and mobile services like Visa and Mastercard? A business-to-business model has served Nvidia pretty well. In this respect, Arm is a great fit.</p>
<p>Arm is supplying technologies in almost every application related to smart devices. An acquisition would give Nvidia a deep understanding of the general trends across various sectors, on a monthly, if not daily, basis. Who wouldn’t want such real-time intelligence? The question is why no one figured it out earlier.</p>
<p>Alas, regulators won’t let it happen. </p>
<h2>Why it won’t happen</h2>
<p>Upon <a href="https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for-40-billion-creating-worlds-premier-computing-company-for-the-age-of-ai/#:%7E:text=Share%20to%20Email-,NVIDIA%20to%20Acquire%20Arm%20for%20%2440%20Billion%2C%20Creating%20World's%20Premier,for%20the%20Age%20of%20AI&text=NVIDIA%20and%20SoftBank%20Group%20Corp.">the announcement</a> of the agreement in September, Nvidia and Arm said they would need green lights from regulators, including those in the US, Europe and China. </p>
<p>This is despite the fact that in theory, Nvidia and Arm do not compete with one another directly. By this narrow definition, the merger doesn’t look “anti-competitive” according to the standards employed around the world. </p>
<p>The EU appears to have greater concerns, however. It worries that the merger would mean Arm would lose its impartiality when licensing technologies. Would Arm favour Nvidia if it started competing in the automotive sector against Bosch in Germany, for instance?</p>
<p>Such worries are reasonable but remain hypothetical. The <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4398948-nvidia-arm-deal-will-likely-be-shot-down">biggest pushback</a>, behind the scenes, actually appears to be from China. Ever since the <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-at-stake-in-trumps-war-on-huawei-control-of-the-global-computer-chip-industry-124079">US blacklisted Huawei</a> and other semiconductor manufacturers in China, Beijing has been obsessed with becoming technically “self-sufficient”. </p>
<p>While it works towards this goal, Arm has continued to license its chip architectures to Huawei. Arm claims that its chip technology is of British origin and therefore does not breach <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7dcc105e-986b-4768-9239-9f8fa9073b53">the US restrictions</a> on exporting tech to a group of blacklisted Chinese companies. Thanks to this ongoing arrangement, Arm is one of the remaining enablers for China’s semiconductor sector to keep pace with the outside world. </p>
<p>The standoff between US and China is unlikely to change during the Biden administration. Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei has reportedly <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/defense/538008-huawei-founder-doubts-biden-will-lift-sanctions">said as much</a>, for instance. This is why Beijing will never let the takeover go through. If that happened, Arm would effectively become a US company, and the export restriction would naturally come in. For similar reasons, the Chinese <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/china-blocks-qualcomms-attempt-to-buy-a-dutch-chipmaker/">effectively stopped</a> Qualcomm from buying Dutch chipmaker NXP Semiconductors in 2018. </p>
<p>The world of Silicon Valley has been built on openness. Knowledge and ideas have to flow freely to deliver technological miracles. But rightly or wrongly, governments see things as a zero-sum game. The tech war and economic rivalries have put a very dedicated industry into sharp geopolitical focus.</p>
<p>The reality is that our human progress over the past few decades has been advanced by the rise of computing power. The last thing we need right now is for exponential technology growth to vanish. For the world to combat climate change, the pandemic and global recession, we need technologies to deliver more solutions, not less. Preventing a tie-up like Nvidia/Arm potentially stands in the way of that.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154999/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Howard Yu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>This will not happen under the watch of Xi Jingping.Howard Yu, Professor of Management and Innovation, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1448102020-09-02T17:50:52Z2020-09-02T17:50:52ZCan Huawei survive the US sanctions?<p>“A deadly blow to the Chinese tech champion” is how <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/17/tech/huawei-us-sanctions-hnk-intl/index.html">CNN described</a> the sanctions announced on August 17 by the US Commerce Department. They will restrict any foreign semiconductor company from selling chips developed or produced using US software or technology to Huawei.</p>
<p>Developing countries such as <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Huawei-crackdown/Huawei-5G-dominance-threatened-in-Southeast-Asia">India and Vietnam</a> have already followed suit. In Europe, Huawei may be excluded from the 5G market as well. On the services front, <a href="https://www.cnet.com/news/huawei-ban-full-timeline-us-restrictions-china-trump-executive-order-commerce-dept/">Google licences are also now compromised</a> and other applications may not be renewed.</p>
<p>Cutting off major tech Chinese companies from the US market, including <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/08/07/why-is-the-trump-administration-banning-tiktok-and-wechat/">TikTok and WeChat</a>, comes at a time of rising diplomatic tensions between Washington and Beijing. But why Huawei and why now? And given the tough sanctions, can the company continue thrive?</p>
<h2>Trade wars</h2>
<p>The 2017 <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf">“National Security Strategy of the USA”</a> report cites China as a “strategic competitor” <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-wrong-with-huawei-and-why-are-countries-banning-the-chinese-telecommunications-firm-109036">threatening</a> the power, influence and security of the United States. The report also mentions Russia.</p>
<p>Since 2015, China has invested heavily in cutting-edge technologies under the <a href="https://merics.org/en/report/made-china-2025">“Made in China 2025” label</a>. Among targeted sectors were IT, space and robotics. Washington characterized the push as an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/FINAL-China-Technology-Report-6.18.18-PDF.pdf">“economic aggression”</a> and a potential threat regarding security and intellectual property. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/winners-and-losers-in-the-us-china-trade-war-119320">US-China trade war</a> began in March 2018, with significant increases in US tariffs on Chinese products such as steel. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://republicans-intelligence.house.gov/sites/intelligence.house.gov/files/documents/Huawei-ZTE%20Investigative%20Report%20%28FINAL%29.pdf">US Congress Intelligence Committee</a> has had an eye on Huawei and its leaders since 2003. US authorities have long been concerned by allegations of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/06/huaweis-difficult-history-with-us-government.html">intellectual property theft</a> and other international violations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353576/original/file-20200819-25043-yi9z5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353576/original/file-20200819-25043-yi9z5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353576/original/file-20200819-25043-yi9z5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353576/original/file-20200819-25043-yi9z5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353576/original/file-20200819-25043-yi9z5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353576/original/file-20200819-25043-yi9z5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353576/original/file-20200819-25043-yi9z5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353576/original/file-20200819-25043-yi9z5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=410&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Huawei-US ban timeline (2017-2020).</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">J.-P. Larcon</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On December 1, 2018, Ms. Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer of Huawei and daughter of the company’s founder, was arrested in Vancouver at the request of a US court.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Huawei, Meng Wanzhou leaves Vancouver court on May 27" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353381/original/file-20200818-24-1lo7lc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353381/original/file-20200818-24-1lo7lc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353381/original/file-20200818-24-1lo7lc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353381/original/file-20200818-24-1lo7lc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353381/original/file-20200818-24-1lo7lc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353381/original/file-20200818-24-1lo7lc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353381/original/file-20200818-24-1lo7lc7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Huawei, Meng Wanzhou leaves Vancouver on May 27.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Don Mackinnon/AFP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The company was alleged to have violated <a href="https://www.courthousenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/US-Meng-BCSC.pdf">US sanctions against Iran</a> by selling it telecom equipment through its subsidiary Skycom. Wanzhou is currently <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/huawei-cfo-meng-wanzhou-to-push-for-release-of-classified-documents-in-canada-court/articleshow/77590142.cms">fighting extradition</a> to the United States while under house arrest in Vancouver.</p>
<h2>The EU safety net</h2>
<p>Australia, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the United States – the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-kingdoms-policy-u-turn-huawei">“Five Eyes” intelligence alliance</a> – are also expected to impose restrictive economic measures on Huawei. The EU stated that rather than an absolute embargo, it would develop a set of a <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/news/cybersecurity-5g-networks-eu-toolbox-risk-mitigating-measures">“tool box”</a> of precise technical measures that will ensure a steady secure deployment of 5G networks.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/meeting_the_challenge_of_secondary_sanctions%20%22%22">consequences of the American sanctions</a> extend to foreign companies using US hardware or software. This means that they too have now lost access to the 5G market, not only in the United States but in other parts of the world as well.</p>
<h2>What can Huawei do?</h2>
<p>In the aftermath of the May 2019 embargo decision, Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei said that to ensure its survival, the company need to put itself in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-huawei-tech-founder/huawei-founder-details-battle-mode-reform-plan-to-beat-u-s-crisis-idUSKCN1VA0Z0">battle mode</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nl2jCWDwE8w?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A May 2019 Time interview with Ren Zhengfei, then Huawei CEO.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ms. He Tingbo, president of HiSilicon, the semiconductor subsidiary of Huawei, suggested another scenario – the beginning of a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-huawei-tech-hisilicon/update-1-huaweis-hisilicon-says-it-has-long-been-preparing-for-us-ban-scenario-idUSL4N22T0J0">“Long March”</a> to make the firm independent of US technology.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353587/original/file-20200819-16-1kb3rfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353587/original/file-20200819-16-1kb3rfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353587/original/file-20200819-16-1kb3rfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353587/original/file-20200819-16-1kb3rfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353587/original/file-20200819-16-1kb3rfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353587/original/file-20200819-16-1kb3rfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353587/original/file-20200819-16-1kb3rfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353587/original/file-20200819-16-1kb3rfu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Largest semiconductor companies in the world by revenue in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">JP Larcon</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Huawei first negotiated with its US and international suppliers to secure as many short-term transactions as possible not yet covered by the embargo. It also turned to suppliers such as Samsung, its Korean competitor in smartphones, and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). SMIC, based in Shanghai, is thus driven to rapidly increase its investments in the high-end market.</p>
<h2>Huawei needs to expand its network</h2>
<p>Huawei has so far tried to retain its competitiveness. But its recently launched Huawei AppGallery – which works with its <a href="https://consumer.huawei.com/en/phones/p40/">P40 smartphones</a> – does not include popular applications such as Facebook, Instagram, Twitter or WhatsApp.</p>
<p>In August 2020, Huawei lost its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/08/14/huawei-temporary-general-license-expires/">“Android temporary licence”</a>. To mitigate the loss, the company is counting on application developers who are attracted by <a href="https://consumer.huawei.com/ae-en/community/details/HMS-ecosystem-reaches-700-million-global-devices%2C-registered-developers-jumps-to-16-million/topicId_112244/">Huawei’s 700 million</a> smartphone customers. Adidas, Booking, Deliveroo, Deezer JD Sports, Ryanair, Trainline, Opera, Viber, and of course TikTok have become regular Huawei clients.</p>
<p>But more developers could come. To attract them, Huawei – which is the fifth-largest investor in terms of R&D – will have to develop its own innovation capacities.</p>
<h2>Building on its people</h2>
<p>Huawei also relies on its employees’ motivation. The company has been a private firm since its inception and is completely owned by its employees through a shareholding system called the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/esop.asp">employee stock ownership plan</a> (ESOP) similar to those in the United States and the UK. </p>
<p>Of the more than <a href="https://www.huawei.com/en/corporate-information">194,000 people working for Huawei</a>, approximately 100,000 receive <a href="https://hbr.org/2015/09/huawei-a-case-study-of-when-profit-sharing-works">virtual stock options</a> based on their performance. The value of the shares is calculated on the net asset value of the firm and can represent substantial amounts compared to the base salary.</p>
<p>Good customer services and warm B2B relationships with phone providers throughout the world could also help the firm navigate this sensitive geopolitical context.</p>
<h2>Opportunities and uncertainties</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.london.edu/think/lessons-from-huawei-when-chinese-companies-go-global">Huawei’s global strategy</a> in 2018 and 2019 has enabled the company to grow steadily in the 5G market in China and countries such as Russia, Turkey, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.</p>
<p>The company has developed new products to remain competitive against Samsung or Apple and has also diversified its business. In 2019 it launched a new generation of chips for its own computer servers and those of its customers. The <a href="https://www.huawei.com/en/news/2019/8/huawei-ascend-910-most-powerful-ai-processor">Ascend 910 chip</a> is dedicated to the calculations of artificial intelligence algorithms in data centres.</p>
<p>The firm also expanded in connected cars. Huawei works with major Chinese manufacturers including FAW, SAIC and Dongfeng Motors.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353584/original/file-20200819-25336-28jv8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353584/original/file-20200819-25336-28jv8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/353584/original/file-20200819-25336-28jv8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353584/original/file-20200819-25336-28jv8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353584/original/file-20200819-25336-28jv8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353584/original/file-20200819-25336-28jv8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353584/original/file-20200819-25336-28jv8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/353584/original/file-20200819-25336-28jv8d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=425&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Huawei turnover according regions and sectors.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">J.-P. Larcon</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, the French group PSA, which has also worked with Huawei since 2017, said in March 2020 that it could <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-huawei-tech/peugeot-ready-to-adjust-huawei-partnership-if-us-demands-idUSKBN20Q22U">reconsider its position</a> if the United States made it a prerequisite for the merger with Fiat Chrysler.</p>
<p>In coming weeks, the escalation between the US and China may lead to strategic negotiations and eventually a <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/14/china-us-pandemic-economy-tensions-trump-coronavirus-covid-new-cold-war-economics-the-great-decoupling/$">radical economical breakup</a>, in which companies such as Huawei may become either leverage or bait.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144810/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jean-Paul Michel Larçon ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d'une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n'a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.</span></em></p>Sanctions against Huawei by the US Commerce department have been followed by other countries. How can the company’s business thrive with so few avenues left?Jean-Paul Michel Larçon, Emeritus Professor Strategy and International Business, HEC Paris Business SchoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1000652018-07-17T14:09:43Z2018-07-17T14:09:43ZHappy 50th birthday Intel, you look a lot like the next Kodak<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228014/original/file-20180717-44088-1jd61wp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Chipped china?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/thedailyexposition/24646411287/in/photolist-DxVipD-5r7ZNB-KViyiE-6qg5GA-KgHu5S-KE19j9-dHGje7-9Ggp8b-7oie2b-iZdjeg-JLpgep-amZMq-9wQ6MM-eN14aW-iZe7r7-eegsDQ-aBDMuC-9ckAnv-6qg67s-8eHhPe-9D7M4y-bpwqhm-ygGej-6qbUwV-otaixG-5z3CoG-7yVudg-qKUSfG-4Wk6Kd-e81y6d-5yYjT4-6qbVmD-dKci48-oy6xAs-9GgyxA-4MoVB5-dKhN7N-7xbpVv-auVkQQ-e7UTJe-jTXHK-7FUuuR-5vooDy-e7UT9D-bjDbDH-27YYsG9-86DXrQ-bjDauR-yBe6U-5wuyjs">The Daily Exposition</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>I am easily a foot taller than Andy Grove. But whenever I was with him, I felt that he was the giant.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>That’s what the bestselling Harvard business professor, Clayton Christensen, <a href="https://hbr.org/2016/03/clayton-christensen-what-ill-miss-about-andy-grove">wrote</a> about the former Intel chief executive when he passed away in 2017. Christensen, who <a href="http://www.claytonchristensen.com/books/the-innovators-dilemma/">coined the term</a> “disruptive technology”, said he would most miss Grove’s ability to understand how a complex organisation works, and to wield it to Intel’s advantage. </p>
<p>It allowed Grove, who started at the company the day it was incorporated on July 18, 1968, to famously re-orient the business in the 1980s. Intel shifted <a href="https://anthonysmoak.com/2016/03/27/andy-grove-and-intels-move-from-memory-to-microprocessors/">away from</a> memory chips for mainframe computers towards the microprocessor – the engine that spurs into motion when you turn on your computer. </p>
<p>Propelled by a deal with IBM to put Intel processors into all its personal computers, the company came to provide Silicon Valley with one of its most essential technologies. Intel Inside and the accompanying jingle became one of the most memorable advertising slogans of the modern era. </p>
<figure>
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<p>Even after five decades of dominance, no other company in the world can produce a better and faster microprocessor. Intel is at the pinnacle of an industry that manages to engineer miracles like no other. We tend to perceive innovation as something uncertain, particularly where it’s so reliant on scientists to drive it forward. Yet Intel is anything but ambiguous. It has released successive advances in processor engineering like clockwork. </p>
<p>In 1965, future co-founder Gordon Moore <a href="https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html">made a bold prediction</a> about the exponential growth of computing power. He predicted that the number of microchip transistors etched into a fixed area of a computer microprocessor would double every two years – and so, therefore, would computing power. Intel has since delivered on this improbable promise, immortalising “Moore’s law”. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228011/original/file-20180717-44079-1ss2z7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228011/original/file-20180717-44079-1ss2z7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228011/original/file-20180717-44079-1ss2z7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228011/original/file-20180717-44079-1ss2z7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228011/original/file-20180717-44079-1ss2z7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=785&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228011/original/file-20180717-44079-1ss2z7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228011/original/file-20180717-44079-1ss2z7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228011/original/file-20180717-44079-1ss2z7v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=986&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Intel’s Andy Grove, Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, 1978.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/intelfreepress/8267616249">Intel Free Press</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It’s difficult for anyone to fathom the effects of exponential growth. But it is why a single iPhone today <a href="https://www.zmescience.com/research/technology/smartphone-power-compared-to-apollo-432/">possesses</a> many times more computing power than the entire spacecraft for the NASA Apollo moon mission of 1969. Without Moore’s law, there would be no Google, no Facebook, no Uber, no Airbnb. Silicon Valley would be like any other valley.</p>
<h2>The big miss</h2>
<p>And yet, the iPhone is also what Intel missed. Immediately after <a href="https://www.cultofmac.com/431760/today-in-apple-history-steve-jobs-announces-intel-powered-macs/">the company won</a> Apple’s Mac business in 2005, Steve Jobs <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/05/paul-otellinis-intel-can-the-company-that-built-the-future-survive-it/275825/">came asking</a> for another chip for his smartphone. Intel certainly wanted to dominate this emerging sector but the price Jobs was offering was below its forecasted cost and it misjudged the size of the iPhone market. The company passed. </p>
<p>Apple had <a href="https://appleinsider.com/articles/15/01/19/how-intel-lost-the-mobile-chip-business-to-apples-ax-arm-application-processors">no choice but</a> to build its own chipsets by licensing technologies from <a href="https://www.arm.com">ARM</a>, a British-based company controlled by Japanese interests. If Apple and its iPhone had been the only competitors, Intel might have been able to gradually adapt. But Google came in soon after with Android, a free operating system that Samsung, Huawei and HTC all adopted. Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Texas Instruments, all licensed by ARM, became the phone makers’ go-to suppliers for energy-efficient, low-cost computing devices. </p>
<p>These American rivals are not trying to beat Intel. Qualcomm specialises in mobile phones and Nvidia specialises in graphics in video games. They all outsource production to third parties in Asia. But an Intel microprocessor sells for around US$100 while ARM-based chips sell for around US$10, and often less than a dollar. That’s how ARM-based designs are now found in more than 95% of the world’s smartphones. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228028/original/file-20180717-44088-1l0qwr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228028/original/file-20180717-44088-1l0qwr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228028/original/file-20180717-44088-1l0qwr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228028/original/file-20180717-44088-1l0qwr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228028/original/file-20180717-44088-1l0qwr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=693&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228028/original/file-20180717-44088-1l0qwr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=870&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228028/original/file-20180717-44088-1l0qwr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=870&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228028/original/file-20180717-44088-1l0qwr3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=870&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Harvard’s Clayton Christensen.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Clayton_Christensen_World_Economic_Forum_2013.jpg#/media/File:Clayton_Christensen_World_Economic_Forum_2013.jpg">Wikimedia</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In other words, Intel failed to compete in smartphones against those who have far less resources. It’s a great irony when you reflect that Grove once invited Christensen to the Intel HQ in Santa Clara, California, to explain his theory on disruption. Grove later <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2015/10/24/clay-christensen-explains-defends-disruptive-innovation/fmYOKIJXOSPPMquj8HQM1O/story.html">credited</a> the meeting as the main driver for Intel’s decision to launch the Celeron chip in 1998, a cheap product aimed at low-end PCs, which within a year captured 35% of the market. </p>
<h2>The new goldrush</h2>
<p>Now the big question is whether Intel is repeating its previous mistake with iPhones – this time in driverless cars. Last March it <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/13/business/dealbook/intel-mobileye-autonomous-cars-israel.html?ref=business">purchased</a> Mobileye, an Israeli company that makes digital vision technology, for US$15.3 billion. It was a big bet in a sector that has huge potential: as autonomous driving takes off, vehicles are becoming computers on wheels. They will require more and more microchips and Intel hopes to dominate. </p>
<p>Except for one glitch. Everything Intel has done in the last 50 years is geared towards general purpose, high-end chipsets. Its integrated model – where the company designs and manufactures its processors – means it absorbs an enormous amount of fixed cost, in research and design as well as manufacturing. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://newsroom.intel.com/editorials/krzanich-ai-day/">only way</a> to offset these burdens is to sell a high volume of devices at high margins. The result is that the company is obsessed with technological progress, but has a rigid business model which limits what it can and cannot do. There’s a monster inside Intel with a ferocious appetite. </p>
<p>But what if autonomous driving doesn’t actually require the computing power Intel is counting on? This is the competing vision of Huawei. When I recently visited Shenzhen, executives from the Chinese telecom giant explained to me that much of the city’s infrastructure will be digitalised and that Huawei will saturate it with <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-5g-the-next-generation-of-wireless-explained-96165">a 5G network</a>. This will drastically reduce any speed and latency problems for computers. </p>
<p>This means the computing inside cars can be mostly offloaded to the city’s infrastructure. It is a radical vision, but clearly a viable alternative. The implication is that a BMW or Toyota doesn’t need that many high-end chipsets after all. It’s smartphones all over again. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228001/original/file-20180717-44082-1ye7e0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228001/original/file-20180717-44082-1ye7e0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/228001/original/file-20180717-44082-1ye7e0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228001/original/file-20180717-44082-1ye7e0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228001/original/file-20180717-44082-1ye7e0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=632&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228001/original/file-20180717-44082-1ye7e0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228001/original/file-20180717-44082-1ye7e0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/228001/original/file-20180717-44082-1ye7e0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=795&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The future once.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/launceston-australiafebruary-2-2012-old-kodak-483403420?src=gO4387mUsXCGBcoqiimWhw-1-37">Steve Lovegrove</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Christensen’s insight was that successful companies die not because of complacency to change. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2012/01/18/how-kodak-failed/">Kodak</a>, <a href="https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/what-was-polaroid-thinking">Polaroid</a>, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2014/09/05/a-look-back-at-why-blockbuster-really-failed-and-why-it-didnt-have-to/#1c3b6cfb1d64">Blockbuster</a> and <a href="https://www.forbes.com/2001/01/19/0915malone.html#53dbd1631f37">DEC</a> all understood the shifting landscape. </p>
<p>But in each case, their business model and the demands of existing shareholders formed an intractable nexus that even the most courageous executives found impossible to navigate. Grove once said, “only the paranoid survive”. Maybe he was right.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Howard Yu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Silicon Valley’s chip supplier de choix scored a massive own goal with smartphones. If it has got driverless cars wrong too, it could be goodnight Santa Clara.Howard Yu, Professor of Management and Innovation, International Institute for Management Development (IMD)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/980442018-07-17T14:03:24Z2018-07-17T14:03:24ZMicroprocessor designers realize security must be a primary concern<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/227211/original/file-20180711-27015-1w5lqv2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are microchips as secure as you think they should be?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/microchips-393112006">Yevhenii Kuchynskyi/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Computers’ amazing abilities to entertain people, help them work, and even respond to voice commands are, at their heart, the results of decades of technological development and innovation in microprocessor design. Under constant pressure to extract more computing performance from smaller and more energy-efficient components, chip architects have invented a dizzying array of tricks and gadgets that make computers faster. But 50 years after <a href="https://www.pcgamer.com/intel-co-founder-gordon-moore-reflects-on-companys-50-year-history/">the founding of Intel</a>, engineers have begun to second-guess many of the chip-making industry’s design techniques.</p>
<p>Recently, security researchers have found that some innovations have let secrets flow freely out of computer hardware the same way software vulnerabilities have led to cyberattacks and data breaches. The best known recent examples were the <a href="https://medium.com/@pwnallthethings/time-travelling-exploits-with-meltdown-1189548f1e1d">chip flaws</a> <a href="https://meltdownattack.com">nicknamed</a> <a href="https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/01/02/intel_cpu_design_flaw/">Spectre and Meltdown</a> that affected <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/01/12/intel-tried-desperately-to-change-the-subject-from-spectre-and-meltdown-at-ces/">billions of computers</a>, smartphones and other electronic devices. On July 10, researchers announced they <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.03757">discovered new variants</a> of <a href="https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/new-spectre-11-and-spectre-12-cpu-flaws-disclosed/">those flaws</a> exploiting the same fundamental leaks in the majority of microprocessors manufactured within the last 20 years.</p>
<p>This realization has led to calls from microchip industry leaders, including <a href="https://www.sigarch.org/john-hennessy-and-david-patterson-share-acm-turing-award/">icons John Hennessy and David Patterson</a>, for a complete rethinking of computer architecture to <a href="http://iscaconf.org/isca2018/turing_lecture.html">put security first</a>. I have been a researcher in the computer architecture field for 15 years – as a graduate student and professor, with stints in industry research organizations – and conduct <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=aD-TODoAAAAJ&hl=en">research in power-management, microarchitecture and security</a>. It’s not the first time designers have had to reevaluate everything they were doing. However, this awakening requires a faster and more significant change to restore users’ trust in hardware security without ruining devices’ performance and battery life.</p>
<h2>Not so secure</h2>
<p>A single modern microprocessor chip can have more than a billion tiny components, including transistors and switches, that form their own little network on a piece of silicon deep inside a computer or electronic gadget. The main problem stems from the fact that tidbits of useful information can leak out from one component to others nearby, just like neighbors often know what’s going on in each other’s houses without asking.</p>
<p>A dedicated observer could, for instance, notice that your home’s lights go on and off at a particular times each workday and infer your family’s work schedules. This sort of indirect approach, using an apparently harmless type of data to infer a useful conclusion, is often called a “side-channel attack.” These vulnerabilities are particularly significant because they exploit weaknesses designers didn’t think to secure – and may not have thought of at all. Also, attacks like this are hardware problems, so they cannot be easily patched with a software update.</p>
<p>Security researchers have found that <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.05044.pdf">certain types of internet traffic</a>, <a href="https://www.usenix.org/conference/usenixsecurity15/technical-sessions/presentation/masti">temperature changes</a>, <a href="http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/3079856.3080223">radio emissions</a> or <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/ESSCIRC.2017.8094523">electricity usage</a> can provide similar clues to what electronic components are doing. These are external clues revealing information the home’s residents – or the device’s users – never intended to share. Even a little information can be enough to reveal important secrets such as users’ passwords. </p>
<p>Many – perhaps even most – of these information leaks are the accidental results of chip designers’ efforts to speed up processing. One example was the nearly universal practice of letting a piece of software read data from the computer’s memory before checking whether that program had permission to do so. As other commentators have pointed out, this is much like a <a href="http://iscaconf.org/isca2018/panel.html">security guard letting someone into a building</a> while still checking their credentials. </p>
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<h2>Innovation as the solution</h2>
<p>These are serious problems with no clear – or simple – answers, but I’m confident they’ll be solved. About 15 years ago, the microprocessor architecture research community faced another seemingly insurmountable challenge and found solutions within a few years – just a few product generations.</p>
<p>At that time, the challenge was that the amount of power microchips consumed was climbing rapidly as components got ever smaller. That made cooling incredibly difficult. Dire charts were presented at major professional conferences <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6a82/1a3329a60def23235c75b152055c36d40437.pdf#page=8">comparing the problem of cooling microprocessors</a> to the challenges of preventing nuclear reactors from overheating.</p>
<p>The industry responded by focusing on power consumption. It’s true that early designs that were more power efficient did computations more slowly than their power-hungry predecessors. But that was only because the initial focus was on redesigning basic functions to save power. It wasn’t long before researchers developed various processing shortcuts and tricks that accelerated performance even beyond what had been possible before.</p>
<h2>Security principles</h2>
<p>I anticipate a similar response to this newly understood security concern: A rapid response that temporarily degrades performance, followed by a return to normal processing speeds. However, the improvement in security may be harder to express clearly than, say, the amount of energy a system uses. </p>
<p>Security is based on a set of principles the designers must follow reliably. One principle could be, for instance, that software cannot read data from memory without permission. This is very hard to implement because at every level of the microprocessor and every place that data could reside, the architects would need to build in permissions checks. <a href="https://www.sigarch.org/speculating-about-speculation-on-the-lack-of-security-guarantees-of-spectre-v1-mitigations/">Just one mistake in just one circuit</a> could leave the entire system vulnerable. </p>
<p>As the research community shifts its priority to security, there are several potential lines of inquiry already developing. One method could involve, as Princeton microchip engineer <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/%7Erblee/">Ruby Lee</a> suggests, <a href="http://iscaconf.org/isca2018/panel.html">inserting randomness</a> into processing, offering observers timing, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1109/HST.2017.7951799">power</a> and temperature values that – like setting a timer to turn your house lights on and off at random intervals while you’re away. But adding randomness would likely degrade a processor’s performance – unless researchers can find a way to avoid doing so.</p>
<p>Identifying and securing these newly identified hardware vulnerabilities and side-channels will be challenging, but the work is important – and a reminder that designers and architects must always think about other ways attackers might try to compromise computer systems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/98044/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Hempstead owns shares in Intel Corp in a retirement account. He has received federal and industry funds for his research in power-management and computer architecture.</span></em></p>As the microchip industry celebrates the 50th anniversary of chipmaker Intel’s founding, engineers and researchers call for a complete rethinking of computer architecture.Mark Hempstead, Associate Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Tufts UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/445112015-07-20T04:16:09Z2015-07-20T04:16:09ZMoore’s Law is 50 years old but will it continue?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88941/original/image-20150720-21047-q7is1z.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The rate of growth in computing power predicted by Gordon Moore (pictured) could be slowing.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/16318918399/">Flickr/Steve Jurvetson</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been 50 years since <a href="http://www.britannica.com/biography/Gordon-E-Moore">Gordon Moore</a>, one of the founders of the microprocessor company Intel, gave us <a href="http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2008/09/moore/">Moore’s Law</a>. This says that the complexity of computer chips ought to double roughly every two years. </p>
<p>Now the current CEO of Intel, Brian Krzanich, is saying the days of Moore’s Law <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/36b722bc-2b49-11e5-8613-e7aedbb7bdb7.html#axzz3gNiPHpum">may be coming to an end</a> as the time between new innovation appears to be widening:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The last two technology transitions have signalled that our cadence today is closer to two and a half years than two.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So is this the end of Moore’s Law?</p>
<p>Moore’s Law has its roots in an <a href="http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=&arnumber=658762">article</a> by <a href="http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/history/museum-gordon-moore-law.html">Moore</a> written in 1965, in which he observed the complexity of component development was doubling each year. This was later modified to become:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The number of transistors incorporated in a chip will approximately double every 24 months.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This rate was again modified to a doubling over roughly 18 months. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88947/original/image-20150720-18556-1s2dol8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88947/original/image-20150720-18556-1s2dol8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/88947/original/image-20150720-18556-1s2dol8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88947/original/image-20150720-18556-1s2dol8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88947/original/image-20150720-18556-1s2dol8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=923&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88947/original/image-20150720-18556-1s2dol8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88947/original/image-20150720-18556-1s2dol8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/88947/original/image-20150720-18556-1s2dol8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1160&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Gordon Moore.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/events/moores_law_40th/">Intel</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In its 24 month guise, Moore’s Law has continued unabated for 50 years, with an overall advance of a factor of roughly 2<sup>31</sup>, or 2 billion. That means memory chips today story around 2 billion times as much data as in 1965. Or, in more general terms, computer hardware today is around 2 billion times as powerful for the same cost.</p>
<p>It is hard to comprehend Moore’s Law. Imagine airline technology advancing from 1965 to 2015 to travel nearly at the speed of light (1,080 million kph or 670 million mph), yet capacious enough to contain the entire world’s population. Or imagine the cost of a jet airliner dropping from US$100 million to one dollar. Yet even these analogies fall far short of a factor of 2 billion.</p>
<p>Moore was originally embarrassed by his eponymous “law”. This is in part because it is not at all a law in the sense a law of physics, but instead merely an observation. But on the <a href="http://www.computerhistory.org/events/video/127/">40th anniversary</a>, Intel was happy to celebrate it and Moore was pleased to note that it still seemed to be accurate.</p>
<h2>The end is nigh?</h2>
<p>A few months ago though, Moore <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/13/opinion/thomas-friedman-moores-law-turns-50.html">observed</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The original prediction was to look at 10 years, which I thought was a stretch […] The fact that something similar is going on for 50 years is truly amazing. […] But someday it has to stop. No exponential like this goes on forever.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There have been numerous other predictions that Moore’s Law was soon to end.</p>
<p>In 1999, physicist and best-selling author Michio Kaku <a href="http://articles.philly.com/1999-08-12/business/25485212_1_molecular-computers-optical-computers-transistors">declared</a> that the “Point One barrier” (meaning chip features 0.1 micron or 100 nanometers in size) would soon halt progress.</p>
<p>Yet the semiconductor industry sailed through the 0.1 micron level like a jetliner passing through a wispy cloud. Devices currently in production have feature sizes as small as 10 or 14 nanometers, and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/technology/ibm-announces-computer-chips-more-powerful-than-any-in-existence.html">IBM has just announced</a> chip with 7 nanometer features.</p>
<p>By comparison, a helical strand of DNA is 2.5 nanometers in diameter, thus commercial semiconductor technology is now entering the molecular and atomic realm.</p>
<h2>A speed barrier</h2>
<p>Not all is roses, though. By one measure – a processor’s <a href="http://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/39831/clock-speed">clock speed</a> – Moore’s Law has already <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/the-end-of-moores-law-why-the-theory-that-computer-processors-will-double-in-power-every-two-years-may-be-becoming-obsolete-10394659.html">stalled</a>.</p>
<p>Today’s state-of-the-art production microprocessors typically have 3 GHz clock rates, compared with 2 GHz rates five or ten years ago – not a big improvement.</p>
<p>But the industry has simply increased the number of processor “cores” and on-chip cache memory, so that aggregate performance continues to track or exceed Moore’s Law projections. There are many, many software challenges to make sure this remains relevant.</p>
<p>Hewlett Packard Laboratories is hard at work developing new approaches for microelectronics. Its <a href="http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/about/nanotechnology.html#electronics">nanotechnology research group</a> has developed a “crossbar architecture”, a design where a set of parallel “wires” a few nanometers in width are crossed by a second set of “wires” at right angles. Where the “wires” intersect forms an electronic switch, which can be configured for either logic or memory storage use.</p>
<p>It is also investigating nanoscale photonics (light-based devices), which can be deployed either for conventional electronic devices or for emerging quantum computing devices.</p>
<h2>Moore’s Law is a gift to science</h2>
<p>Moore’s Law has been a great blessing to <a href="https://theconversation.com/make-mine-a-double-moores-law-and-the-future-of-mathematics-4957">science and mathematics research</a>. Modern laboratories are loaded with high-tech measurement and analysis devices, which become more powerful and cheaper ever year.</p>
<p>In addition, a broad range of modern science, mathematics and engineering has benefited from Moore’s Law in the form of scientific supercomputers, which are used for applications as diverse as supernova simulation and protein folding to product design and the processing of microwave background radiation from the cosmos.</p>
<p>Software running these computers has advanced abreast with Moore’s Law. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/math/fft.html">fast Fourier transform</a> algorithm, which is used extensively in scientific computation, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), both involve substantial computation that would not be possible without Moore’s Law advances.</p>
<p>It is not entirely coincidental that both of these algorithmic advances arose roughly 50 years ago, the same time Moore’s Law was first observed.</p>
<h2>How much more for Moore’s Law?</h2>
<p>Intel’s CEO, Brian Krzanich, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/intel-ceo-brian-krzanich-suggests-moores-law-is-over-2015-7">said the company</a> would “strive to get back to two years” for innovation to keep Moore’s Law on track.</p>
<p>If Moore’s Law does continue for just two or three more decades, typical handheld devices may well exceed the human brain in intelligence. Some, such as author <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Our-Final-Invention-Artificial-Intelligence/dp/0312622376">James Barrat</a>, declare that artificially intelligent computers will be the “final invention” of mankind, after which humans may become irrelevant.</p>
<p>We do not subscribe to such pessimism. Rather we see a promising future with scientific knowledge, among other things, increasing at an exponential rate.</p>
<p>Time will tell. As physicist Richard Feynman wrote in 1959, referring to the potential for ever finer control of nature at the microscopic level, there still appears to be <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There%27s_Plenty_of_Room_at_the_Bottom">plenty of room at the bottom</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/44511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Borwein (Jon) receives funding from the Australian Research Council</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David H. Bailey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The rapid advancement of computing power has followed an unusual law that was first mooted a half century ago. But are there signs things could be slowing down?Jonathan Borwein (Jon), Laureate Professor of Mathematics, University of NewcastleDavid H. Bailey, PhD; Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (retired) and Research Fellow, University of California, DavisLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.