tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/murray-darling-basin-6112/articlesMurray Darling basin – The Conversation2023-10-05T03:16:20Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111072023-10-05T03:16:20Z2023-10-05T03:16:20ZSuicide rates increased after extreme drought in the Murray-Darling Basin – we have to do better as climate change intensifies<p>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0102-4">impact on mental health of weather extremes</a> such as drought is a growing concern due to climate change.</p>
<p>Rural communities feel the impact of drought much more than urban residents. Our <a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/full/10.1142/S2010007823500240">new research</a> looks at the link between drought and suicide rates in one of Australia’s biggest farming areas, the Murray-Darling Basin. </p>
<p>Drawing on monthly data from 2006 to 2016, our findings were alarming. We found, for instance, that one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with a 32% increase in monthly suicide rates. </p>
<p>Climate change is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">predicted</a> to bring more heat and <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/publications/publication/PIcsiro:EP201750">longer, more extreme droughts</a>. More effective approaches will be needed to prevent suicides in affected regions. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1541420049952415744"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-increases-rural-suicide-and-climate-change-will-make-drought-worse-185392">Drought increases rural suicide, and climate change will make drought worse</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Drought hits rural areas hardest</h2>
<p>Droughts induce <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1801528115">post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety and depression</a>. Hotter temperatures can also <a href="https://www.bcm.edu/news/excessive-heat-and-its-impact-on-mental-health#:%7E:text=Heat%20alters%20those%20behaviors%20because,levels%20of%20stress%20and%20fatigue.">reduce levels of the brain chemical serotonin</a>. This has negative effects on the <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-019-05252-5">central nervous system and moods</a>. </p>
<p>In Australia, suicide is a <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/causes-death-australia/latest-release#key-statistics">leading cause of death</a> – especially for people aged 18-44. And the suicide rate in remote areas is <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/MentalHealthServices/Report">almost double that of major cities</a>. This is because drought can:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24721393">reduce agricultural production</a><br></li>
<li><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8489.12218">increase financial hardship</a></li>
<li><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1080/10398560701701288">degrade the environment</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0102-4">reduce employment</a>. </li>
</ul>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0222-x">Research overseas</a> found suicide rates rise with higher average temperatures. In Australia, a study found some evidence linking <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1112965109">drought and suicide</a> in New South Wales. However, a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1440-1584.2011.01244.x?saml_referrer">Victorian study</a> found no significant association.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfires-drought-covid-why-rural-australians-mental-health-is-taking-a-battering-148724">Bushfires, drought, COVID: why rural Australians' mental health is taking a battering</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What happened in the basin?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/full/10.1142/S2010007823500240">Our study</a> looked at the Murray-Darling Basin. The region went through one of the worst droughts on record, the Millennium Drought, over the past couple of decades. </p>
<p>We analysed local area monthly data from 2006-16. We wanted to see whether worsening drought and heat were linked to higher monthly suicide rates, by examining differing types of droughts (moderate to extreme). </p>
<p>The map below shows the average suicide rate for 2006-2016 in local areas across the basin. Male suicide rates were over three times female rates.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541610/original/file-20230808-19-kenxlv.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=562&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average suicide rate per 100,000 by local area in the Murray Darling Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/full/10.1142/S2010007823500240">Source: Xu et al (2023) using data from National Cause of Death Unit Record File from Australian Coordinating Registry (2006-2016) and ABS Population Census, 2006, 2011, 2016</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We sought to control for as many local area characteristics as possible. Our modelling included unemployment, income, education, proportion of farmers, proportion of Indigenous people, health professionals, green space and various climate and drought variables. We modelled suicide rates for different age and gender sub-groups. </p>
<p>Key findings include:</p>
<ul>
<li>one more month of extreme drought in the previous 12 months was strongly associated with the total suicide rate increasing by 32%</li>
<li>one more month of moderate drought in the previous 12 months was very weakly associated with a 2% increase in the suicide rate</li>
<li>a 1°C increase in average monthly maximum temperature in the previous 12 months was associated with up to an 8% increase in the suicide rate </li>
<li>in males and younger age groups, suicide rates are more strongly associated with extreme drought and higher temperatures</li>
<li>a higher proportion of farmers in a local area was associated with an increased suicide rate </li>
<li>a higher proportion of First Nations people in a local area was also associated with higher suicide rates</li>
<li>more green space was significantly associated with moderating impacts of both extreme drought and temperature on suicide rates</li>
<li>an increase in average annual household income moderated the relationship between higher temperature and suicide.</li>
</ul>
<p>Our results suggest the association between moderate drought and suicide rates is significant but the effect was small. As the drought becomes extreme, suicide rates increase significantly. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/new-findings-show-a-direct-causal-relationship-between-unemployment-and-suicide-209486">New findings show a direct causal relationship between unemployment and suicide</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What can we do better to prevent suicides?</h2>
<p>Given drought’s impact on farm production and finances, mental health will clearly get worse in rural areas if the impacts of climate change are not better managed. </p>
<p>Mental health interventions to prevent suicide in <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/19/13/7855">rural areas</a> are different from what’s needed in urban areas. Areas in the basin with higher percentages of farmers and First Nations people were hot spots. These areas may need special intervention. </p>
<p>Many have emphasised the need for a <a href="https://www.blackdoginstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/The-National-Suicide-Prevention-Trials-Insights-and-Impact_Jan-2021-V3.pdf">systems approach to suicide prevention</a>. Actions need to be multifaceted and co-ordinated as well as possible. One intervention or approach is not enough. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1399143601125433346"}"></div></p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hairdressers-in-rural-australia-end-up-being-counsellors-too-70275">Hairdressers in rural Australia end up being counsellors too</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Interventions in the bush range from telehealth and medical services to <a href="https://www.health.gov.au/our-work/aboriginal-and-torres-strait-islander-mental-health-program">primary health networks services</a>, <a href="https://mensshed.org/">men’s sheds</a> and drought counselling. </p>
<p>The relationship between <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2018/209/4/drought-related-stress-among-farmers-findings-australian-rural-mental-health">drought and financial hardship</a> seems to be key in farming areas. This points to the need for other forms of income on the farm, including from native vegetation and carbon credits. Work can also be done to promote drought preparedness, increase appropriate regional economic, social development and environmental policies and – where necessary – help people leave farming. </p>
<hr>
<p><em>If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211107/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Ann Wheeler has received funding from the Australian Research Council; GRDC; Wine Australia; MDBA; CRC Food Waste; CSIRO; Goyder Institute; SA Department of Environment and Water; ACCC; NT Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security; NSW Health; Commonwealth Department of Agriculture and Water; Meat and Livestock Australia; ACIAR; RIRDC; UNECE; NCCARF; National Water Commission; and the Government of Netherlands.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alec Zuo receives funding from the Australian Research Council, GRDC, ACCC, NSW Health, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ACIAR, NCCARF, and the National Water Commission.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ying Xu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Suicide rates jumped in the Murray Darling Basin following extreme drought and hotter temperatures, a new study shows. The findings highlight the need for action to manage climate change impacts.Sarah Ann Wheeler, Professor in Water Economics, University of AdelaideAlec Zuo, Associate Professor, School of Economics and Public Policy, University of AdelaideYing Xu, Research Fellow, School of Economics and Public Policy, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2120022023-08-22T09:19:16Z2023-08-22T09:19:16ZMurray-Darling Basin Plan to be extended under a new agreement, without Victoria – but an uphill battle lies ahead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543904/original/file-20230822-17-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=22%2C33%2C7326%2C4869&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Federal Minister for Water Tanya Plibersek today <a href="https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/plibersek/media-releases/historic-deal-struck-guarantee-future-murray-darling-basin">announced a new agreement</a> to restore Australia’s largest and most important river basin. It comes just months before the original Murray-Darling Basin Plan was to be completed. </p>
<p>This was a plan to benefit people and nature, to protect river communities, industries and the environment against future droughts. It was forged in response to the gruelling <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/river-murray/dry-conditions/millennium-drought">Millennium Drought</a>, when the Murray River stopped flowing to the sea. </p>
<p>It was clear too much water was being taken out of the system and everyone would suffer if Basin states could not find a better way to share. But it has been much harder to strike the right balance than first hoped. </p>
<p>When it became clear in July it was <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/news-and-events/newsroom/authority-advice-basin-plan-implementation">no longer possible</a> to deliver the plan in full and on time, the federal government started hatching a new plan. </p>
<p>Now Plibersek is offering “more time, more money, more options, and more accountability”, acutely aware that “the next drought is just around the corner”. But she faces an uphill battle, with Victoria still holding out. Further, the legislation is yet to go before parliament and needs to be passed before Christmas. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-less-than-a-year-to-go-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-is-in-a-dreadful-mess-these-5-steps-are-needed-to-fix-it-209328">With less than a year to go, the Murray-Darling Basin Plan is in a dreadful mess. These 5 steps are needed to fix it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How did we get here?</h2>
<p>Management of the Basin rivers today is a far cry from the hope engendered in 2007 when Prime Minister <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22media%2Fpressrel%2FK81M6%22;src1=sm1">John Howard announced</a> the National Plan for Water Security, at the peak of the Millenium Drought.</p>
<p>He proposed reforms to Basin water governance, saying “nothing can change the basic facts of our continent” and calling for action to end “the tyranny of incrementalism and the lowest common denominator” governance. These “once and for all” reforms were intended to prevent “economic and environmental decline”. </p>
<p>But the Basin states were loathe to hand their powers over to the Commonwealth. Victoria and New South Wales resisted reallocating water from agriculture. Amid navigating the complex science and trade offs, it was another five years before the controversial Basin Plan was adopted in 2012.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the plan then languished over the past decade as the federal, New South Wales and Victorian governments <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020208">frustrated measures</a> originally agreed to return water from agricultural use to the environment.</p>
<p>This week’s announcement represents the federal government taking firm steps to implement the first part of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-centre/labors-plan-to-future-proof-australias-water-resources-butler">five-point election commitment</a> for the Basin.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="darling river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543906/original/file-20230822-21-1crsil.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A plan for the water: the politics of the Murray-Darling Basin have long been fraught.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Now the federal government has reached agreements with most states who share management of the river system – Queensland, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and South Australia – but not Victoria. The Victorian government appears to be rivalling the National Party in its <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-04-20/victorian-government-hold-murray-darling-basin-projects/102247494">opposition</a> to buying more water entitlements from irrigators (water buybacks). </p>
<p>The federal government is looking to purchase water entitlements from willing sellers. This is because past investments in water efficiency projects have proven to be too slow, very expensive and have had unexpected outcomes for agricultural industries and the rivers.</p>
<p>Victoria continues to argue its irrigation-based industries would be harmed by more water buybacks, and that the state has borne an unfair share of the burden compared to New South Wales. The Victorian government has knowledgeable staff and is well resourced, and resistance could be fierce.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/water-buybacks-are-back-on-the-table-in-the-murray-darling-basin-heres-a-refresher-on-how-they-work-200529">Water buybacks are back on the table in the Murray-Darling Basin. Here's a refresher on how they work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Plibersek appears to be counting on her alliance with other states enabling required amendments to the Water Act and Basin Plan to be passed before Christmas. Given almost certain rejection by the Opposition of more water reallocation, she will require the support of cross bench Senators who may demand stronger environmental measures. The Greens have already <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/water-buybacks-scare-off-victoria-from-basin-agreement/news-story/882a81acfbb21dbc8631a5a031b6ab28">criticised</a> the minister’s announcement as a move that “kicks the can down the road”, but buying such a large volume of water will take years.</p>
<p>If the legislation is not amended, and existing deadlines remain, the federal government may be forced into <a href="https://www.npc.org.au/speaker/2022/1090-andrew-mcconville">recovering even more water</a>. In particular, they would need to respond to the states’ failure to deliver on projects that are supposed to conserve wetland with less water by building water supply infrastructure.</p>
<h2>A welcome development</h2>
<p>The new agreement is welcome in doubling down on the original plan to recover 3,200 billion litres a year of additional water essential to maintain the health of the rivers and the people who rely on them. The federal government has focused on recovering 450 billion litres a year of water within this target that was agreed with the former South Australian premier. Premier Jay Weatherill drew on scientific advice to insist the minimum volume of water was recovered that is needed to keep the lower River Murray floodplain, lower lakes and Coorong healthy.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the past decade of stalling by the federal, NSW and Victorian governments means the 2023-24 Basin Plan deadlines must be extended by two to three years if key projects are to be completed.</p>
<p>Much greater public assurance with transparency and accountability measures is needed if the new targets are to be met. The federal government needs to find more effective carrots and sticks to engender state compliance. This time it would be wise to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14486563.2014.999725">withhold payments to the states</a> until they deliver the promised action.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="murray darling rivers meeting" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543907/original/file-20230822-21-l2fetn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The muddy waters of the Darling meet the clearer Murray at Wentworth in New South Wales.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The federal government’s intention to redouble efforts to “<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-less-than-a-year-to-go-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-is-in-a-dreadful-mess-these-5-steps-are-needed-to-fix-it-209328">relax constraints</a>” and enable more water to flow to where it’s most needed to conserve flora and fauna is crucial. This is essential to get the most benefits for freshwater ecosystems by allowing environmental water to spill out of river channels onto floodplain wetlands. Despite a recent flurry of activity, NSW and Victoria have not delivered promised agreements with river side land owners to enable this watering.</p>
<p>The one disappointing aspect of the agreement is the proposal to allow more water offset projects (under the <a href="https://getinvolved.mdba.gov.au/SDLAM">Sustainable Diversion Limit Adjustment Mechanism</a>). These ecologically dubious projects have been <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-plans-for-engineered-wetlands-on-the-murray-are-environmentally-dubious-heres-a-better-option-204116">problematic</a>, with at least one being abandoned and many delayed. It is inconceivable that new projects could be identified and delivered by 2026.</p>
<p>But the new agreement only deals with the most immediate problems in implementing the Basin Plan. The Plan is due to be revised in 2026. The current measures do not deal with <a href="https://theconversation.com/with-less-than-a-year-to-go-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-is-in-a-dreadful-mess-these-5-steps-are-needed-to-fix-it-209328">two major issues</a>. First, ways need to be found to restore the rights of Indigenous nations to own and manage water. Currently they hold only 0.2% of issued entitlements. Second, a new Plan is needed to manage the project loss of a lot of water to climate and other environmental change.</p>
<p>The federal government’s agreement with most states (but not Victoria) is a really welcome initiative to get Basin Plan implementation back on track. However, even harder decisions await.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-plans-for-engineered-wetlands-on-the-murray-are-environmentally-dubious-heres-a-better-option-204116">Victoria’s plans for engineered wetlands on the Murray are environmentally dubious. Here’s a better option</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pittock is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists. Jamie holds roles in a number of non-government environmental organisations. He is also the independent Chair of the ACT Natural Resources Management Advisory Committee. </span></em></p>Knowing the ‘next drought is just around the corner’, Australia’s Water Minister Tanya Plibersek is striking a new agreement to return water and health to the Murray-Darling Basin.Jamie Pittock, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093282023-07-17T20:03:25Z2023-07-17T20:03:25ZWith less than a year to go, the Murray-Darling Basin Plan is in a dreadful mess. These 5 steps are needed to fix it<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537445/original/file-20230714-15-hsnhzh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C2591%2C1724&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Murray Darling Basin Plan is an historic deal between state and federal governments to save Australia’s most important river system. The A$13 billion plan, inked over a decade ago, was supposed to rein in the water extracted by farmers and communities, and make sure the environment got the water it needed. </p>
<p>But now, less than a year out from the plan’s deadline, it’s in a dreadful mess. Projects have not been delivered. Governments cannot agree on who gets the water, or how. All the while, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/B9780128181522000127">water</a> in the Murray-Darling Basin will become scarcer as climate change worsens.</p>
<p>The Albanese government was elected on a promise to <a href="https://anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-centre/labors-plan-to-future-proof-australias-water-resources-butler">uphold</a> the Murray-Darling Basin Plan.
But earlier this month, Environment and Water Minister Tanya Plibersek <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-07-05/murray-darling-basin-plan-targets-advice-request-tanya-plibersek/102559824">conceded</a> the plan is “too far behind” and needs a “course correction”.</p>
<p>I have studied and promoted sustainability measures in the Murray-Darling Basin for 35 years. Here, I outline the five steps needed now to ensure the health of the river system and the people who depend on it. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man overlooks river bend" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537446/original/file-20230714-23-47mt53.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Water in the Murray Darling Basin will become scarcer as climate change worsens.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A refresher: what is the Murray-Darling Basin Plan?</h2>
<p>The Murray-Darling Basin covers <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/murray-darling-basin-plan/">about a seventh</a> of the Australian land mass: most of New South Wales, parts of Queensland, South Australia and Victoria, and all of the Australian Capital Territory. It includes the Murray River and Darling River/Baarka and their tributaries. </p>
<p>These lands and waters are the traditional lands of <a href="https://www.indigenous.gov.au/news-and-media/announcements/new-indigenous-rangers-murray-darling-basin">more than 40 Indigenous nations</a>. Around <a href="http://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/MF03075">5% of the basin</a> consists of floodplain forests, lakes, rivers and other wetland habitats. Vast amounts of water are extracted from the rivers to supply around <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/why-murray-darling-basin-matters">three million Australians</a>, including irrigating farms. </p>
<p>The Murray-Darling Basin Plan <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/murray-darling-basin-plan/:%7E:text=The%20Basin%20Plan%20was%20signed,needs%20such%20as%20drinking%20water.">became law</a> in 2012, under the Labor government. It is due to be fully implemented and audited by the end of June 2024.</p>
<p>The plan limits the amount of water extracted from the basin. It aims to both improve the condition of freshwater ecosystems and maintain the social and economic benefits of irrigated agriculture.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1569277751542300680"}"></div></p>
<p>Under the plan, <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/river-murray/basin-plan/whats-in-the-basin-plan/history-of-the-basin-plan#:%7E:text=The%20Australian%20Government%20subsequently%20committed,river%20communities%20and%20environmental%20works.">3,200 billion litres a year</a> would be returned to rivers – about 14% of <a href="https://doi.org/10.4225/08/585ac631207f7">total surface water</a> in the basin. </p>
<p>The water was largely to be recovered by buying back water entitlements from farmers. Some <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/river-murray/basin-plan/whats-in-the-basin-plan/history-of-the-basin-plan">450 billion litres</a> would be retrieved through water efficiency projects.</p>
<p>The plan has twice been amended to reduce the amount of water taken from farmers. The first change, made on <a href="https://wentworthgroup.org/2018/01/advice-on-basin-plan-amendment-instrument-2017/">questionable grounds</a>, reduced the water recovery target by 70 billion litres a year. The second reduced it by 605 billion litres, with the water to instead be recovered through <a href="https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/water/basins-catchments/murray-darling/supply-efficiency-measures">36 water-saving offset projects</a>. </p>
<p>Further, the Victorian and NSW governments committed to reaching agreements with farmers to enable water for the environment to safely spill out of river channels and across privately owned floodplains, to replenish more wetlands.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-an-ugly-legacy-of-denying-water-rights-to-aboriginal-people-not-much-has-changed-141743">Australia has an ugly legacy of denying water rights to Aboriginal people. Not much has changed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="man stands on flooded road" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536383/original/file-20230708-17-3g0q3m.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Getting water into floodplain wetlands is crucial for flora and fauna. Pictured: a colleague of the author stands on a road at Tocumwal, NSW, as water inundates the River Murray floodplain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jamie Pittock</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>So how’s the plan going?</h2>
<p>Things are not going well. As of November last year, the offset projects were likely to deliver between <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/news-and-events/newsroom/address-national-and-rural-press-club">290 and 415 billion litres</a> of the 605 billion litres required. And <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF20172">very little water</a> is getting to floodplains.</p>
<p>And of the 450 billion litres to be retrieved through water-efficiency projects, only 26 billion litres has been <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-07-05/murray-darling-basin-plan-targets-advice-request-tanya-plibersek/102559824">recovered</a>.</p>
<p>It means of the 3,200 billion litres of water a year to be returned to the environment, only <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/climate-and-river-health/water-environment/water-recovery/factors-water-recovery/progress-water">2,100 billion litres</a> was being achieved as of March this year – plus the small amount of projected water from offset projects, if it’s delivered. </p>
<p>At a meeting in February this year, the nation’s water ministers <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-24/states-fail-to-agree-as-murray-darling-basin-plan-deadline-looms/102018886">failed to agree</a> on how to meet the plan’s deadline.</p>
<p>As governments quibble, the rivers and floodplains of the Murray-Darling suffer. In the past decade, millions of fish have perished in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-did-millions-of-fish-die-gasping-in-the-darling-after-three-years-of-rain-202125">mass die-offs</a>. <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/climate-and-river-health/water-quality/blue-green-algae">Toxic algae</a> has bloomed, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF21057">wildife</a> and <a href="https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/science-tech/despite-challenging-conditions-thousands-waterbirds-breeding-throughout-nsw">waterbirds</a> have declined in numbers and <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/this-magnificent-wetland-was-barren-and-bone-dry-three-years-of-rain-brought-it-back-to-life-20221115-p5bydw.html">wetlands</a> have dried up. These are all signs that too much water is still being taken from the system.</p>
<p>So how do we get the basin plan back on track? Below, I identify the top five priorities.</p>
<h2>1. NSW must get its act together on water plans</h2>
<p>Integral to implementing the broader basin plan are 33 “<a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/water-management/basin-plan/water-resource-plans">water resource plans</a>” devised by the states. These plans bring the basin plan into legal force and detail how much water can be taken from the system and how it is divided between users such as farmers, communities and the environment. </p>
<p>NSW must produce 20 plans. To date, <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/water-management/basin-plan/water-resource-plans/list-state-water-resource-plans">just five</a> are in place. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/09/nsw-withdraws-seven-flawed-water-resource-plans-throwing-doubt-on-murray-darling-basin-plan">At least seven plans</a> by NSW were recently withdrawn to be re-drafted. </p>
<p>Until they’re finalised, key measures of the basin plan cannot be implemented. The new NSW Minns government must prioritise the remaining water resource plans and have them accredited by the Commonwealth government. </p>
<h2>2. Federal water buybacks must ramp up</h2>
<p>The Albanese government is taking steps to improve water recovery under the plan, such as <a href="https://consult.dcceew.gov.au/ideas-to-deliver-the-basin-plan">consulting stakeholders</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-22/federal-government-water-buybacks-murray-darling-basin-plan-730/102007496">restarting</a> water buybacks. But it must do more.</p>
<p>Both <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/22/murray-darling-basin-plan-on-the-brink-after-nsw-says-it-cannot-meet-water-savings-deadline">NSW</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/23/murray-darling-basin-plan-victoria-will-struggle-to-meet-water-delivery-obligations-by-deadline">Victoria</a> will almost certainly miss the 2024 deadline for delivering all infrastructure projects they promised to offset 605 billion litres of water. </p>
<p>The federal government is legally obliged to – and should – purchase additional water from farmers to cover any gap. It must also acquire more than 400 billion litres of water to make up for the shortfall in water efficiency projects.</p>
<p>For this to occur, a <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/mdb/commonwealth-water-mdb">Coalition-era cap</a> must be lifted from 1,500 billion litres to enable more federal government water purchases from farmers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="machine waters crops" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537448/original/file-20230714-14892-q74jlj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The federal government must buy more water entitlements from farmers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>3. Abandon questionable water-saving projects</h2>
<p>At least six water-saving projects look unlikely to meet the deadline. </p>
<p>They include a large project proposed by the former NSW government to reduce evaporation at <a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/491679/Menindee-Lakes-evaporation-fact-sheet.pdf">Menindee Lakes</a>, which <a href="https://www.theland.com.au/story/7172211/menindee-sdl-project-discussions-suspended/">appears doomed</a>. </p>
<p>Another <a href="https://www.dpie.nsw.gov.au/water/water-infrastructure-nsw/sdlam/yanco-creek-modernisation-project">project at Yanco Creek</a> in NSW has also fallen behind, and four of the nine Victorian projects have been <a href="https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=WTWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weeklytimesnow.com.au%2Fnews%2Fwater%2Fshing-halts-floodplain-works-fears-federal-funding-will-be-cut%2Fnews-story%2Fe22a38442f6ab2c7c7f4a5fd0073f996&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium">paused</a>. </p>
<p>What’s more, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1890/130259">ecological merit</a> of these projects are contested – as is the scientific rigour of the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF22082">proposed auditing</a> method. These projects <a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-plans-for-engineered-wetlands-on-the-murray-are-environmentally-dubious-heres-a-better-option-204116">should be abandoned</a> in favour of reconnecting rivers to their floodplain. </p>
<h2>4. Reconnect rivers and floodplains</h2>
<p>For floodplain wetlands to function, they must be regularly inundated with water. To date, just <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/paper/MF20172">2% of these parts</a> of the basin are inundated each year by managed flows (or in other words, intentional water releases by authorities).</p>
<p>The federal government holds water for this purpose. Delivering the water requires compensation for the owners of inundated properties, as well as upgraded roads, bridges and levee banks. Managed inundation can benefit landholders, such as by reducing the impacts of natural floods. But governments must do a better job of <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2020.1832723">communicating these benefits</a> to win support.</p>
<p>The federal government needs NSW and Victoria to help implement their agreement for watering floodplains, but this cooperation has been extremely slow. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/damning-royal-commission-report-leaves-no-doubt-that-we-all-lose-if-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-fails-110908">Damning royal commission report leaves no doubt that we all lose if the Murray-Darling Basin Plan fails</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="river at sunset" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537449/original/file-20230714-15-ubu6du.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rivers must be connected to floodplains.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>5. Make information transparent</h2>
<p>The data and modelling used to manage water in the basin is complex and is often not publicly available. </p>
<p>In its final report in 2019, a South Australian <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/river-murray/basin-plan/murray-darling-basin-commission">royal commission</a> into the Murray-Darling Basin was highly critical of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority. The report found the authority failed to act on “the best available science” when determining how much water could be returned to the environment, and withheld modelling and other information that should have been made public. </p>
<p>Making such information freely available is crucial for accountability and to build public trust. </p>
<h2>Time for tough decisions</h2>
<p>Each key element of the basin plan has encountered trouble at the implementation stage. The five steps I’ve outlined are essential to rectifying this. </p>
<p>Attention must now also turn to a review of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, which is legally required in 2026. As well as addressing the problems detailed above, it must address two big issues essentially ignored in the plan to date: the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2021.1970094?src=recsys">lack of</a> Indigenous rights over water, and water losses due to <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2023.2190493">global warming</a> and other environmental change. </p>
<p>If the Albanese government is to uphold its election promise to deliver the plan, hard decisions – and trade-offs – will be required. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-plans-for-engineered-wetlands-on-the-murray-are-environmentally-dubious-heres-a-better-option-204116">Victoria’s plans for engineered wetlands on the Murray are environmentally dubious. Here’s a better option</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209328/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pittock is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists and holds other voluntary roles with non-government environmental and natural resource management organisations. He is Chair of the ACT Natural Resource Management Advisory Committee.</span></em></p>Projects have not been delivered. States are bickering. If the Albanese government is to uphold its election promise to deliver the Murray plan, hard tradeoffs are needed.Jamie Pittock, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2055712023-07-02T20:02:18Z2023-07-02T20:02:18ZThe Murray-Darling Basin shows why the ‘social cost of water’ concept won’t work<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533850/original/file-20230625-98671-sa646o.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=31%2C3%2C2066%2C1394&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> Kate McBride</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Access to safe, clean water is a basic <a href="https://www.unwater.org/water-facts/human-rights-water-and-sanitation">human right</a>. But water scarcity or barriers to access can cause conflict within and between countries. </p>
<p>Fights over water can be expected to <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/climate-issues/water">intensify as the world warms</a>, evaporation increases and rainfall becomes less predictable. So we’ll need to work even harder to resolve disputes and share this precious resource. </p>
<p>Earlier this year, for the first time in almost half a century, the <a href="https://www.unwater.org/news/un-2023-water-conference">United Nations held a conference squarely focused on water</a>. Thousands of water experts gathered in New York for three days in March, to chart a way forward. </p>
<p>We were among the delegates. Since then, we have discussed and debated ideas that surfaced at this international meeting. Some were worthwhile, but others were wrong. In particular, we challenge the concept of a global “social cost of water”. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532807/original/file-20230620-46525-4a5amn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Infographic outlining the UN 2023 Water Conference vision statement" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532807/original/file-20230620-46525-4a5amn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532807/original/file-20230620-46525-4a5amn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532807/original/file-20230620-46525-4a5amn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532807/original/file-20230620-46525-4a5amn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532807/original/file-20230620-46525-4a5amn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532807/original/file-20230620-46525-4a5amn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532807/original/file-20230620-46525-4a5amn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Picturing The UN 2023 Water Conference vision.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.unwater.org/news/un-2023-water-conference">UN 2023 Water Conference</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/were-ignoring-the-value-of-water-and-that-means-were-devaluing-it-207936">We're ignoring the value of water – and that means we're devaluing it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What is a global social cost of water?</h2>
<p>One of the big ideas that came up at the conference was the need for a “new economics of water as a common good”, which includes the “social cost of water”. </p>
<p>Elaborating on his idea <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00800-z">in the journal Nature</a>, Swedish scientist Johan Rockström and colleagues wrote:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[Researchers] must assess the ‘social cost of water’, akin to the ‘social cost of carbon’, which considers the costs to society of loss and damage caused by water extremes and not meeting the basic provision of water for human needs.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The <a href="https://www.rff.org/publications/explainers/social-cost-carbon-101/">social cost of carbon</a> is an estimate, in dollars, of the economic damages that would result from emitting one additional tonne of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. It’s a decision-making tool used by governments, especially in the United States, for cost-benefit analysis of climate policy. </p>
<p>The social cost of water concept proposes valuing all types of water, including water vapour in the atmosphere that later falls as rain. This means attempting to put a dollar value on moisture flowing across borders, and implicitly creating world water markets. According to this logic, if <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00800-z">most of Nigeria’s rain</a> comes from forests in central Africa, then Nigeria should be prepared to pay central African nations to maintain the source of this moisture generation. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1638209350463541248"}"></div></p>
<p>But we believe the concept of a global social cost of water is fundamentally flawed, as we explained in our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01564-2/">correspondence in Nature</a> in May, alongside <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01563-3">others</a> who also questioned its logic and purpose. Further correspondence in June also described calls to govern water on a global scale as “<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01924-y">unrealistic</a>” and distracting from sustainable and equitable access. </p>
<p>It’s unclear how a global social cost of water would work in practice. Writing as economists who have studied local water markets for decades, we see many problems with the concept, such as: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>how water moisture volumes would be estimated reliably and regularly</p></li>
<li><p>how a dollar value could be reliably associated with water moisture flows across borders</p></li>
<li><p>how payments would be enforced between countries, and by what institutions</p></li>
<li><p>whether the money paid between countries would actually improve water security</p></li>
<li><p>what would happen when moisture flows across borders lead to floods with loss of human lives – would the downwind country receive compensation for water disasters as well as droughts? </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Australia has the most sophisticated water markets in the world, in the Murray-Darling Basin. But even here there are <a href="https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/36/1/132/5696682">considerable differences in how markets work</a>. Water values and costs are also very different.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-social-cost-of-carbon-2-energy-experts-explain-176255">What is the ‘social cost of carbon’? 2 energy experts explain</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man looks out of the second-storey window of his flooded shack at Scott’s Creek, Morgan." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534965/original/file-20230630-23-ziw4ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/534965/original/file-20230630-23-ziw4ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534965/original/file-20230630-23-ziw4ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534965/original/file-20230630-23-ziw4ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534965/original/file-20230630-23-ziw4ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534965/original/file-20230630-23-ziw4ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/534965/original/file-20230630-23-ziw4ih.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In December, 2022, the swollen Murray River flooded homes in South Australia. The floodwater reached the second floor of Darren Davey’s shack at Scott’s Creek, Morgan.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://photos.aap.com.au/search/murray%20flood?q=%7B%22pageSize%22:25,%22pageNumber%22:2%7D">MATT TURNER, AAP</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Australia’s Murray-Darling Basin: a case in point</h2>
<p>The value of water in the Basin consists of benefits and costs. Some benefits include:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>direct use of water to grow crops or irrigate pasture</p></li>
<li><p>recreational use such as boating and water sports</p></li>
<li><p>indirect use including the benefits to health and wellbeing from living alongside a natural water body</p></li>
<li><p>future use values, knowing there is sufficient water to sustain healthy ecosystems and rivers in years to come</p></li>
<li><p>future generational, existence and cultural values such as non-use values associated with the ancient <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/10/fish-traps-brewarrina-extraordinary-ancient-structures-protection">Brewarrina fish traps</a>. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Costs include harm to mental health associated with a lack of water during drought. At the other extreme, there’s the cost of too much water causing floods, property damage and loss of life, or salinity harming viticulture in the Riverland. </p>
<p>This shows the social value of water is incredibly difficult to measure even within one area such as the Basin, let alone trying to enforce a global water market.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/water-buybacks-are-back-on-the-table-in-the-murray-darling-basin-heres-a-refresher-on-how-they-work-200529">Water buybacks are back on the table in the Murray-Darling Basin. Here's a refresher on how they work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What should instead happen next?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01564-2">We think the best way</a> to address the water crisis is to focus on local management and institutions, plan carefully and implement a wide range of policies. These include: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>using economic methods and tools to assess and implement local water policies where feasible</p></li>
<li><p>removing subsidies that incentivise water exploitation</p></li>
<li><p>establishing sustainable extraction limits</p></li>
<li><p>strengthening water institutions to allow measurement, monitoring and enforcement of water use</p></li>
<li><p><a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/world/what-why-and-how-world-water-crisis-global-commission-economics-water-phase-1-review-and-findings">promoting water justice and sharing</a>. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>This is a big task. Misdirection down blind alleys is a distraction that the world cannot afford.</p>
<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/42TLwJwAxQ8uE0bYuZNufh?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205571/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sarah Ann Wheeler has received funding from the Australian Research Council; GRDC; Wine Australia; MDBA; CRC Food Waste; CSIRO; Goyder Institute; SA Department of Environment and Water; ACCC; NT Department of Environment, Parks and Water Security; NSW Health; Commonwealth Department of Agriculture and Water; Meat and Livestock Australia; ACIAR; RIRDC; UNECE; NCCARF; National Water Commission; and the Government of Netherlands.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>The International Food Policy Research Institute, where Claudia Ringler works, receives funding from a considerable number of donors; none of which is linked to this piece. Claudia Ringler is a member of the International Advisory Committee (IAC) of UNU-INWEH.</span></em></p>After almost half a century, the United Nations has waded back into the murky world of water policy. But one of the ideas following this year’s international meeting has been shot down.Sarah Ann Wheeler, Professor in Water Economics, University of AdelaideClaudia Ringler, Deputy Director, Environment and Production Technology Division, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2071552023-06-26T04:56:38Z2023-06-26T04:56:38ZSoil erosion is filling vital inland river waterholes, putting the squeeze on fish, turtles and crayfish<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531528/original/file-20230613-26-wznt2l.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C9%2C3058%2C1784&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Tibby</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>During droughts, Australia’s inland rivers dry up, leaving waterholes as the only wet places in a parched landscape. Fish, turtles, crayfish and other aquatic animals retreat to these vital refuges. </p>
<p>But our research, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF23016">published today</a>, reveals these waterholes are in danger of filling up with eroded soil from farms. This is putting a big squeeze on life in the river. </p>
<p>When drought breaks, the water flooding into the river carries soil along with it. In theory, soil deposited in waterholes could be flushed out again by large floods.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0169555X94900523">Studies in the 1990s</a> suggested as long as floods continued to occur, waterholes would maintain a natural balance of sediment. But these studies focused on the Cooper Creek, in the Kati Thanda (Lake Eyre) Basin, where waterholes have a sandy base underlying clay-dominated soil that can be easily washed out again. Many Australian rivers are different. So what happens elsewhere?</p>
<p>Our new research investigated waterhole infilling in the Moonie River, in the northern part of the Murray Darling-Basin. The Moonie catchment has experienced extensive clearing of native vegetation for sheep and cattle grazing. Unlike some neighbouring catchments, the upper and middle portions of the river have minimal water extraction and so their flow patterns are relatively “natural”. It’s a true “dryland river”, flowing only after infrequent rain events. During long periods with no flow, waterholes become the only remaining wet habitats for aquatic animals to survive.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531582/original/file-20230613-22-m9x1lj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A photograph of Moonie River showing bare banks and soil erosion" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531582/original/file-20230613-22-m9x1lj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531582/original/file-20230613-22-m9x1lj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531582/original/file-20230613-22-m9x1lj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531582/original/file-20230613-22-m9x1lj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531582/original/file-20230613-22-m9x1lj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531582/original/file-20230613-22-m9x1lj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531582/original/file-20230613-22-m9x1lj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Moonie River’s bare banks suffer from erosion. Much of the catchment has also been cleared for grazing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Tibby</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-inland-rivers-are-the-pulse-of-the-outback-by-2070-theyll-be-unrecognisable-136492">Australia’s inland rivers are the pulse of the outback. By 2070, they’ll be unrecognisable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Poking at sediment to understand waterholes</h2>
<p>Waterholes in the Moonie River can be more than 5 kilometres long, up to 5 metres deep, and teeming with life. Kingfishers, whistling kites and parrots create a symphony of sound while fish occasionally break the surface of the murky water. </p>
<p>We studied three of the deepest waterholes in the Moonie River, as they are the ones that <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2021.671556/full">last longest in droughts</a>. Our initial method was simple. Using metal rods, we probed the soil’s depth at evenly spaced points along the waterholes. Our first survey revealed all three waterholes had accumulated at least a metre of soil, with one site showing more than 2.5 metres of infilling, significantly reducing its depth.</p>
<p>To determine the rate of sediment accumulation, we used radiocarbon dating. This technique is commonly used for dating objects thousands of years old such as the <a href="https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/mungo-lady">Lake Mungo skeletons</a>. However, nuclear weapons testing in the 1950s introduced new radioactive material including radiocarbon into the atmosphere worldwide. By analysing radiocarbon in the Moonie River sediments, we could estimate their age. </p>
<p>Our sediment dating revealed that, in places, more than two metres of soil had filled the deepest waterholes <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF23016">since the 1950s</a>. Before European occupation, it would have taken thousands of years to deposit this much soil. Our research suggests sediment infilling also sped up over the past few decades.</p>
<p>The accumulated soil reduces the waterholes’ depth, preventing them from holding water for as long as they used to during droughts. Our modelling indicated this reduction has shortened the duration waterholes can hold water by almost a year at some sites, bringing them dangerously close to complete drying during the longest droughts.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533943/original/file-20230626-5608-3zt1z7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A cut-away graphic showing comparing the depth of waterholes before and after European settlement" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533943/original/file-20230626-5608-3zt1z7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533943/original/file-20230626-5608-3zt1z7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533943/original/file-20230626-5608-3zt1z7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533943/original/file-20230626-5608-3zt1z7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=276&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533943/original/file-20230626-5608-3zt1z7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533943/original/file-20230626-5608-3zt1z7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533943/original/file-20230626-5608-3zt1z7.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=347&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Waterholes were much deeper before European settlement.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ian.umces.edu/media-library/">Sara Clifford, using resources from the Integration and Application Network</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Do floods remove soil from waterholes?</h2>
<p>However, two significant questions remained: does sediment get removed after a large flood? And if it does, does material from upstream simply get dumped downstream? To answer these questions, we needed some luck and a knowledge of cocktails.</p>
<p>In 2010 and 2011, the Moonie River experienced two <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-01-04/flood-hit-st-george-evacuates-residents/1893662">very large floods</a>. This gave us the perfect opportunity to find answers. We repeated our waterhole surveys and found even after big floods, there was still a minimum of 1 metre of sediment across most of the bottom of these waterholes, with much deeper sediment in places.</p>
<p>The missing piece of our puzzle was to determine whether the sediments were mixed together, like a margarita, and deposited by a single flood, or if they were layered, resembling a B52 cocktail (another connection to nuclear bomb testing). </p>
<p>To unravel this, we examined how the sediment had changed since before the floods. We observed distinct layers, like those in a B52 cocktail, indicating the sediments had been deposited over a series of flows and floods since the 1950s, rather than solely after individual floods.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-helped-fill-a-major-climate-change-knowledge-gap-thanks-to-130-000-year-old-sediment-in-sydney-lakes-187784">We helped fill a major climate change knowledge gap, thanks to 130,000-year-old sediment in Sydney lakes</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How can we solve this problem?</h2>
<p>We need to address the imbalance between eroded soil supply and the river’s capacity to transport sediment downstream. </p>
<p>In the Moonie River, water extraction for human use is minimal, so the problem is unlikely to lie with the river’s flow regime. The main culprit is an increased supply of sediment.</p>
<p>That means the solution lies in better catchment soil management. We need to stop so much soil washing into the Moonie River. This requires further research to find the main sources of soil that fills waterholes. Then determine the most effective ways to prevent erosion and reduce the amount of soil entering the river. This approach also helps preserve precious soils on agricultural land. In some exceptional cases, more extensive engineering solutions may be necessary to restore waterholes.</p>
<p>Given climate change projections for more frequent and longer droughts in the region, taking action to restore and preserve the function of waterholes in dryland rivers like the Moonie becomes increasingly crucial. These actions are essential for safeguarding the diverse aquatic animal life and the people that depend on waterholes for survival during droughts.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-official-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-hasnt-met-its-promise-to-our-precious-rivers-so-where-to-now-188074">It's official: the Murray-Darling Basin Plan hasn't met its promise to our precious rivers. So where to now?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207155/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Tibby receives funding from the Australian Research Council, The Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation, the Queensland and South Australian Governments. This research was partially funded by the Queensland Government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Marshall works for the Queensland Department of Environment and Science who partially funded this research. </span></em></p>Australia’s beloved billabongs and waterholes are in danger of filling up with eroded soil from farms, leaving little room for the aquatic animals that depend on these vital drought refuges.John Tibby, Associate Professor in Environmental Change, University of AdelaideJonathan Marshall, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow in the Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2021252023-03-20T03:02:36Z2023-03-20T03:02:36ZHow did millions of fish die gasping in the Darling – after three years of rain?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516248/original/file-20230320-24-zym4lc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C0%2C1017%2C682&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bill Ormonde</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Millions of dead fish float on the surface of the river. Native bony herring and introduced young carp, as well as a few mature Murray cod and golden perch. History is repeating on the Darling River at Menindee. This new fish kill is even worse than the enormous 2018–2019 fish kill. And it’s in almost the same location. </p>
<p>But how can so many fish die when we’ve been having floods? What’s killing them? </p>
<p>In both 2018 and 2023, the immediate answer is the same: the fish ran out of oxygen. Five years ago, it was because the river was almost dry. This time, it’s likely to be factors like the heatwave days earlier, receding floodwaters, bacteria pulling oxygen from the water – and no escape. </p>
<p>But two events like this in five years speaks to a deeper cause. The Darling River – known as the Baaka by Barkandji Traditional Owners – is very sick. Too much of its water is siphoned off for agriculture. Our native fish are hardy. They’re used to extremes. But this is too much, even for them. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1636583143745687552"}"></div></p>
<h2>Short term pressure, long term pain</h2>
<p>I was a member of the expert panel investigating the 2018–2019 Menindee fish kills. Everyone agreed the fish ran out of oxygen. It was a very dry period, and a cool front arriving after a heat wave mixed deep low-oxygen river water with the thin top layer which had oxygen. </p>
<p>But our panel also examined the long-term changes to the river. We found the long-term cause for the river’s decline was simple: too much water was being <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/science-policy-and-sector-analysis/reports-and-publications/fish-kills-report">diverted upstream</a>. </p>
<p>It wasn’t just climate <a href="https://theconversation.com/excessive-water-extractions-not-climate-change-are-most-to-blame-for-the-darling-river-drying-192621">change</a> – it was irrigation. We warned it could <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-wrote-the-report-for-the-minister-on-fish-deaths-in-the-lower-darling-heres-why-it-could-happen-again-115063">happen again</a>. Now it has. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516250/original/file-20230320-447-cr0ayg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="dead fish darling river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516250/original/file-20230320-447-cr0ayg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516250/original/file-20230320-447-cr0ayg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516250/original/file-20230320-447-cr0ayg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516250/original/file-20230320-447-cr0ayg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516250/original/file-20230320-447-cr0ayg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516250/original/file-20230320-447-cr0ayg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516250/original/file-20230320-447-cr0ayg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Native bony bream died in their millions, as did young carp, golden perch and even Murray cod.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bill Ormonde</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When faced with such environmental disaster, our leaders tend to reach for Dorothea MacKellar’s famous poem, My Country, and its line about a land “Of droughts and flooding rains.” Coalition water ministers at both federal and state level confidently blamed the drought for the first fish kill. Now, NSW premier Dominic Perrottet has linked <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-18/nsw-menindee-mass-fish-kill-worst-in-region/102115184">this kill</a> to the recent floods. </p>
<p>This is part of the reason. But only part. When floodwaters engorged the Darling and its tributaries, it was a bonanza for bacteria that broke down dead wood lying on the floodplain. Unfortunately, this explosion of microorganisms had a devastating side effect: they sucked oxygen out of the water. </p>
<p>This is what’s known as a blackwater event (in reality, more greeny-brown). As the floodwaters moved downstream and the Darling’s flow decreased, millions of fish fled the floodplains and found themselves crammed back in the narrow river channel where they were hit by plummeting oxygen levels. </p>
<p>Desperate, the fish looked to escape. But upstream, their exit was blocked. In December, authorities had fully opened the gates to the Menindee main weir for the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-05/menindee-weir-opens-allowing-unimpeded-migration-for-native-fish/101732232">first time</a> in a decade to let fish migrate. But now the gates are shut. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516254/original/file-20230320-18-yvz5st.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="menindee weir" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516254/original/file-20230320-18-yvz5st.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516254/original/file-20230320-18-yvz5st.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516254/original/file-20230320-18-yvz5st.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516254/original/file-20230320-18-yvz5st.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516254/original/file-20230320-18-yvz5st.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516254/original/file-20230320-18-yvz5st.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516254/original/file-20230320-18-yvz5st.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Fish could swim up river past the Menindee main weir in December - but as flows slowed, the gates have been shut.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Richard Kingsford</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>They couldn’t get into the main <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/water-management/infrastructure/menindee-lakes">Menindee Lakes</a>, where they might have found water with more oxygen, as they were blocked by the regulators – large taps used mainly to let water out. </p>
<p>Could they escape downstream? Perhaps some did. But for millions of fish, there was no time. Their bodies will only <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-19/emergency-centre-activated-to-clean-up-menindee-fish-kill/102117524">make the problem worse</a>, as tonnes of rotting fish deposit vast quantities of nutrients into the river. That’s great for bacteria, algae and some fish-eating birds. But it’s not healthy for the river, its fish, or its people. </p>
<p>Yes, fish kills have always occurred but not at <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/science-policy-and-sector-analysis/reports-and-publications/fish-kills-report">this scale</a>. The fundamental reason the fish of the Darling keep dying is because there is not enough water allowed to flow.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fish-kills-and-undrinkable-water-heres-what-to-expect-for-the-murray-darling-this-summer-126940">Fish kills and undrinkable water: here's what to expect for the Murray Darling this summer</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Why is the Darling in such trouble?</h2>
<p>Since the 1980s, the Darling’s tributaries have steadily shrunk. The Macquarie, the Namoi, the Gwydir, the Border Rivers and the Condamine-Balonne are all shadows of the rivers they once were. </p>
<p>Much of their water is captured in large dams, such as Burrendong Dam, or intercepted by floodplain harvesting, which was legalised only last year by the NSW government to the dismay of environmentalists and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2022-08-01/floodplain-harvesting-legislated-southern-nsw/101287572">farmers downstream</a>. </p>
<p>Just last week, before news of the fish kills at Menindee, water allocations announced by the NSW Government in the Namoi and Gwydir Rivers were at 113% and 275% respectively. While some of the water held in dams goes to the environment, much of the water in rural reservoirs is allocated for extraction – around 44% of the water held in the Gwydir Valley’s Copeton Dam, and 61% of the water in Keepit and Split Rock Dams in the Namoi Valley. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516257/original/file-20230320-18-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="river red gum on darling" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516257/original/file-20230320-18-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/516257/original/file-20230320-18-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516257/original/file-20230320-18-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516257/original/file-20230320-18-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516257/original/file-20230320-18-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516257/original/file-20230320-18-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/516257/original/file-20230320-18-1vd4wc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">River red gums rely on periodic flooding. Without floodwaters, they can die.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The fish kills at Menindee are the clearest sign yet of how policy and management have failed the Darling. These catastrophes were inevitable. And the pain isn’t limited to fish. We are suffering too. </p>
<p>Taxpayers forked out nearly half a billion dollars <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-26/wentworth-to-broken-hill-pipeline-turned-on/10844986">for a pipeline</a> from the Murray to Broken Hill, which nearly ran out of water in 2019. Why? Because the Darling was no longer dependable. In 2019, the towns of Wilcannia and Brewarrina <a href="https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/rural/2019/03/09/wilcannia-the-town-with-no-water/15520500007800#hrd">ran out of water</a>, significantly affecting Aboriginal communities. Why? Because the Darling was so low. </p>
<p>Fish kills like this one make news for a few days, and then get forgotten. But unless we tackle the fundamental problem of a lack of water in our rivers, there will be many more to come. This is not a natural disaster. It is man-made. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/water-buybacks-are-back-on-the-table-in-the-murray-darling-basin-heres-a-refresher-on-how-they-work-200529">Water buybacks are back on the table in the Murray-Darling Basin. Here's a refresher on how they work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Correction: A previous version of this article said the water farmers and other users could take from the Namoi and Gwydir rivers was well beyond the total flows left in the rivers. In fact, the figures stated include carryover water allocations, and do not reflect the amount of water that can currently be extracted. The article has been amended to reflect this.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202125/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Kingsford receives funding from the Australian Research Council, New South Wales, Queensland, Victorian and South Australian Governments, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority and a range of non-government organisations, including World Wide Fund for Nature, The Nature Conservancy and philanthropic sources. He is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists and a councillor on the Biodiversity Council. He is also part of the Next Generation Water Management Hub led by Charles Sturt University (funded through the Regional Research Collaboration Program of the Department of Education of the Australian Government), focusing on fish ecology and management. </span></em></p>For the second time in five years, millions of fish suffocated in the Darling River. This was not a natural disaster – it’s our doingRichard Kingsford, Professor, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1980672023-01-22T19:02:19Z2023-01-22T19:02:19ZExploding carp numbers are ‘like a house of horrors’ for our rivers. Is it time to unleash carp herpes?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505286/original/file-20230119-16-v3k4oo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=179%2C11%2C3814%2C1982&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ivor Stuart/The Conversation </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>With widespread La Niña flooding in the Murray-Darling Basin, common carp (<em>Cyprinus carpio</em>) populations are having a boom year. <a href="https://www.facebook.com/abccentralwest/videos/1591484014680235/?extid=NS-UNK-UNK-UNK-IOS_GK0T-GK1C&mibextid=2Rb1fB">Videos</a> of writhing masses of both adult and young fish illustrate that all is not well in our rivers. Carp now account for up to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2004.01232.x">90%</a> of live fish mass in some rivers.</p>
<p>Concerned communities are wondering whether it is, at last, time for Australia to <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/european-carp-numbers-spike-after-record-flooding-calls-mount-to-push-forward-with-release-of-herpes-virus/ar-AA16uLjp">unleash the carp herpes virus</a> to control populations – but the conversation among scientists, conservationists, communities and government bodies is only just beginning.</p>
<p>Globally, the carp virus has been detected in <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-carp-control-plan.pdf">more than 30 countries</a> but never in Australia. There are <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10530-019-01967-1">valid concerns</a> to any future Australian release, including cleaning up dead carp, and potential significant reductions of water quality and native fish. </p>
<p>As river scientists and native fish lovers, let’s weigh the benefits of releasing the virus against the risks, set within a context of a greater vision of river recovery.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pest-plants-and-animals-cost-australia-around-25-billion-a-year-and-it-will-get-worse-164969">Pest plants and animals cost Australia around $25 billion a year – and it will get worse</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>A house of horrors for rivers</h2>
<p>Carp are a pest in Australia. They cause dramatic ecological damage both here and in many countries. Carp were <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2004.01232.x">first introduced</a> in the 1800s but it was only with “the Boolarra strain” that populations exploded in the basin in the early 1970s. </p>
<p>Assisted by flooding in the 1970s, carp have since invaded <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108942">92%</a> of all rivers and wetlands in their present geographic range. There have been estimates of up to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2020.108942">357 million fish</a> during flood conditions. This year, this estimate may even be exceeded. </p>
<p>Carp are super-abundant right now because floods give them access to floodplain habitats. There, each large female can spawn millions of eggs and young have high survival rates. While numbers will decline as the floods subside, the number of juveniles presently entering back into rivers will be stupendous and may last years.</p>
<p>The impacts of carp are like a house of horrors for our rivers. They cause massive degradation of aquatic plants, riverbanks and riverbeds when they feed. They alter the habitat critical for small native fish, such as southern pygmy perch. And they can make the bed of many rivers look like the surface of golf balls – denuded and dimpled, devoid of any habitat.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505477/original/file-20230119-22-ppme5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Dimpled riverbed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505477/original/file-20230119-22-ppme5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505477/original/file-20230119-22-ppme5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505477/original/file-20230119-22-ppme5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505477/original/file-20230119-22-ppme5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505477/original/file-20230119-22-ppme5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505477/original/file-20230119-22-ppme5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505477/original/file-20230119-22-ppme5a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Adult carp usually search for food at the bottom of rivers, stirring up sediment and creating dimples on the riverbed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ivor Stuart</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/before-and-after-see-how-bushfire-and-rain-turned-the-macquarie-perchs-home-to-sludge-139919">Before and after: see how bushfire and rain turned the Macquarie perch's home to sludge</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Most strikingly, this feeding behaviour contributes to turbid rivers, reducing sunlight penetration and productivity for native plants, fish and broader aquatic communities. </p>
<p>Carp truly are formidable “ecosystem engineers”, which means they directly modify their environment, much like <a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-underestimate-rabbits-these-powerful-pests-threaten-more-native-wildlife-than-cats-or-foxes-168288">rabbits</a>. Their design leads to aquatic destruction of waterways.</p>
<p>We know when their “impact threshold” exceeds <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/pdf/MF13117">88 kilograms per hectare</a> of adult carp, we see declines in aquatic plant health, water quality, native fish numbers and other aquatic values. At present, we expect carp to far exceed this impact threshold. For river managers, the challenge is to keep numbers below that level. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505284/original/file-20230119-23-yqnz7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Person holding a carp" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505284/original/file-20230119-23-yqnz7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505284/original/file-20230119-23-yqnz7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505284/original/file-20230119-23-yqnz7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505284/original/file-20230119-23-yqnz7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505284/original/file-20230119-23-yqnz7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505284/original/file-20230119-23-yqnz7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505284/original/file-20230119-23-yqnz7f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carp alter the habitat critical for small native fish.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Ivor Stuart</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The carp herpes virus</h2>
<p>The carp virus (<a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12985-016-0666-4">Cyprinid herpesvirus 3</a>) represents one of the only landscape-scale carp control options, although there are some exciting genetic modification technologies also emerging. </p>
<p>Mathematical modelling suggests the carp virus could cause a 40-60% knockdown for at least <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-carp-control-plan.pdf">ten years</a>, which may help tip the balance in favour of native fish. Certainly, there have been some well documented <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jfd.13082">virus outbreaks</a> in the United States resulting in large-scale carp deaths.</p>
<p>The risks and benefits of a potential Australian release of a carp virus are transparently addressed under the federal government’s <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/biosecurity-trade/pests-diseases-weeds/pest-animals-and-weeds/national-carp-control-plan">National Carp Control Plan</a>, released last year. This plan provides some sorely needed leadership in the carp management space. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505283/original/file-20230119-15-ia7tgg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Piles of dead carp in clamshell pools" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505283/original/file-20230119-15-ia7tgg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505283/original/file-20230119-15-ia7tgg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505283/original/file-20230119-15-ia7tgg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505283/original/file-20230119-15-ia7tgg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=402&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505283/original/file-20230119-15-ia7tgg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505283/original/file-20230119-15-ia7tgg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505283/original/file-20230119-15-ia7tgg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Carp account for up to 90% of live fish mass in some rivers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Katie Doyle</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Risks the plan identifies include:</p>
<ul>
<li>major logistic challenges in cleaning up dead carp</li>
<li>potentially serious short-term deterioration in water quality </li>
<li>potential native fish deaths due to poor water quality.</li>
</ul>
<p>On the other hand, the benefits of releasing the virus include:</p>
<ul>
<li>recovery of aquatic biodiversity populations – fish, plants and invertebrates</li>
<li>major long-term improvements to water quality </li>
<li>improved social amenity of inland waterways.</li>
</ul>
<p>As carp continue to destroy Australia’s riverine heritage, it’s time to lay our cards on the table and have a serious conversation about the carp virus. Managing expectations is a key and the confidence of stakeholders and the community is vital for its success. </p>
<p>Like rabbits and other vertebrate pests, carp are emblematic of our inability to deal with entrenched pest animals. There are no silver bullets.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-smallest-fish-among-22-at-risk-of-extinction-within-two-decades-144115">Australia's smallest fish among 22 at risk of extinction within two decades</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>How else can we manage carp?</h2>
<p>Rolling out the carp virus is only one potential pathway away from carp. If we truly want to reduce carp numbers and impacts in the long-term then we need to examine all the roles humans play supporting them. </p>
<p>For example, the series of weir pools in the lower Murray create perfect conditions for carp because they give fish access to floodplains year round. </p>
<p>Strategically lowering and removing weir pools to re-create flowing water habitats would be one solution to help Murray cod and other flowing water specialists, such as silver perch, river snails and Murray crays. This is one of many integrated actions that could help tip the balance against carp.</p>
<p>Also, floodplain structures (which create artificial “floods”) generate static, warm-bathtub conditions that carp, being from Central Asia, prefer, contributing to huge numbers especially in dry years. Few medium or large native fish benefit from these conditions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505285/original/file-20230119-18-3pzdvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Flock of pelicans on a river" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505285/original/file-20230119-18-3pzdvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/505285/original/file-20230119-18-3pzdvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505285/original/file-20230119-18-3pzdvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505285/original/file-20230119-18-3pzdvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505285/original/file-20230119-18-3pzdvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505285/original/file-20230119-18-3pzdvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/505285/original/file-20230119-18-3pzdvg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Some native animals such as pelicans would be dining on carp in this population boom.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another pathway is to seek guidance from increasingly sophisticated environmental modelling, which can identify optimal population trajectories for native fish over carp.</p>
<p>Now the floods have returned, we need to move away from local decisions at the site-scale and instead manage ecosystems across the entire Murray-Darling Basin. </p>
<p>The present flooding also reminds us of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-can-be-a-disaster-for-humans-but-for-nature-its-boom-time-192837">huge potential increases</a> in the numbers of golden perch, frogs, yabbies and water birds. Animals that eat carp (Murray cod, golden perch, pelicans, cormorants) should all be as fat as can be. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-can-be-a-disaster-for-humans-but-for-nature-its-boom-time-192837">Floods can be a disaster for humans – but for nature, it's boom time</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Looking beyond carp</h2>
<p>Just like the huge numbers of dead native fish from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/last-summers-fish-carnage-sparked-public-outrage-heres-what-has-happened-since-132346">Darling River fish kills</a> in 2018-2019, the huge numbers of carp is a big wake-up call on the <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/mf20248">poor state</a> of rivers in the Murray-Darling Basin and how we’re managing them. </p>
<p>Perhaps what has been missing from the whole conversation is a vision for what our rivers should look like in ten or 20 years time. We don’t want to leave a legacy of degraded rivers for future Australians. </p>
<p>River health is an issue all Australian’s, country and city, need to engage with. If we don’t identify a common purpose, then we will likely continue to remain in lock-step with the great armies of carp and rivers of fish kills for generations to come. We need to do better than this. The future of our rivers depends on it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/198067/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ivor Stuart is a fisheries researcher at the Gulbali Institute, Charles Sturt University. He receives funding from the Australian Government to undertake fisheries research in the Murray-Darling Basin. Ivor worked on a national carp biomass estimate as part of the National Carp Control Plan.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Koehn is an Adjunct Professor at the Gulbali Institute, Charles Sturt University. He currently receives no funding in relation from any organization in relation to this topic but has received funding for ecological research, scientific advice and population modelling for both carp and native fish in the past. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Doyle is a Research Scientist within the Inland Fisheries Research Group, Gulbali Institute, Charles Sturt University and receives funding from the Australian government through the Next Generation Water Management Hub to conduct research into pest fish management and the impacts of water infrastructure on freshwater ecosystems. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee Baumgartner is the Executive Director of the Gulbali Institute at Charles Sturt University. He receives funding from the Australian government and various private donors to undertake research into fisheries sustainability in the Murray-Darling Basin and the Lower Mekong region. He also serves as leader of the Inland Fisheries Research Group and director of the Next Generation Water Management Hub.</span></em></p>Carp can make riverbeds look like golf balls – denuded and dimpled, devoid of any habitat. Releasing carp herpes virus is a controversial proposition, so let’s weigh up the risks and benefits.Ivor Stuart, Fisheries ecologist, Charles Sturt UniversityJohn Koehn, Freshwater fish ecologist, Charles Sturt UniversityKatie Doyle, Freshwater Ecologist, Charles Sturt UniversityLee Baumgartner, Professor of Fisheries and River Management, Institute for Land, Water, and Society, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1933802022-10-27T19:05:43Z2022-10-27T19:05:43ZMoney for dams dries up as good water management finally makes it into a federal budget<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492016/original/file-20221027-23859-8g7fsa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C25%2C5551%2C3675&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Wyangala Dam</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A story from the early days of the Abbott government still circulates in the halls of Parliament House.</p>
<p>The government’s Expenditure Review Committee apparently supported then Minister for Agriculture Barnaby Joyce’s first A$500 million budget funding for the National Party’s dam-building plans, over then Treasurer Joe Hockey’s objections. Hockey reputedly said to Joyce “good luck with that, I don’t think you’ll build one of them”. If true then Joe, take a cigar.</p>
<p>In our land of drought and flooding rains, better water management should feature in every federal budget. Thankfully, the budget handed down by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Tuesday delivers it.</p>
<p>It slashes spending on big dams and elevates the role of science in water decision-making. It also positions Labor to undertake further reform in the Murray-Darling Basin by buying back more water from farmers to improve the health of the rivers, and manage the impacts of climate change.</p>
<p>These measures promise to deliver more sustainable use of water in Australia’s most economically important and exploited river system. But they also buy a fight with some quarters of the farming community, and the New South Wales and Victorian governments.</p>
<h2>Nationals set about building dams</h2>
<p>Dams are a talisman for Australians <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0725513618821970">who believe</a> development and the conquest of nature is essential to nation-building. </p>
<p>The National Party arguably exemplifies this ideology. It gained control of the water portfolios in the former federal government and current NSW government and set about trying to <a href="https://barnabyjoyce.com.au/opinion-piece">build dams</a>, especially in the Murray-Darling Basin.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party has conceded to National Party demands on water even though the <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/policy/nwi">National Water Initiative</a>, established by the Coalition in 2004, <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/sitecollectiondocuments/water/Intergovernmental-Agreement-on-a-national-water-initiative.pdf">stipulates</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>proposals for investment in new or refurbished water infrastructure […] be assessed as economically viable and ecologically sustainable prior to the investment occurring.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This week’s budget wields a long overdue axe to dam proposals from Coalition governments, saving <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp1/download/bp1_2022-23.pdf">$1.7 billion over four years</a>. Two of the most controversial dam proposals in the Murray-Darling Basin are among those axed or indefinitely postponed. </p>
<p>First is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/17/dungowan-dam-likely-dead-in-the-water-after-infrastructure-australia-deems-proposal-low-priority">$1.27 billion</a> Dungowan proposal near Tamworth in NSW. <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/water-reform-2020/report">It was slammed</a> by the Productivity Commission as excessively expensive and the leading example of poor water infrastructure decision making. </p>
<p>Second is the hugely expensive - up to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-18/wyangala-dam-wall-raising-missing-from-election-campaign-/101072664">$2.1 billion at last estimate</a> - raising of Wyangala Dam, near Cowra. In 2021 a NSW <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/inquiries/Pages/inquiry-details.aspx?pk=2614#tab-reportsandgovernmentresponses">parliamentary inquiry</a> found the proposal was “yet to demonstrate the cost effectiveness and water yield benefits of the project”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/labors-sensible-budget-leaves-australians-short-changed-on-climate-action-heres-where-it-went-wrong-193215">Labor's 'sensible' budget leaves Australians short-changed on climate action. Here's where it went wrong</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Further, $153.8 million of unallocated funding in former “water efficiency” projects in the basin has been (somewhat ambiguously) “re-profiled”. These efficiency projects have been <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2019.1579965">criticised as</a> double-counting water at the expense of the environment, being very expensive and subsidising irrigators. </p>
<p>Importantly, Labor has quietly sought to lock a commitment to better governance with transparent environmental and socio-economic assessment standards in a new <a href="https://www.nationalwatergrid.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/investment-framework-october-2022.pdf">National Water Grid Investment Framework</a>.</p>
<h2>Science and the Murray-Darling Basin</h2>
<p>Labor has allocated $51.9 million over five years to strengthen the Murray-Darling Basin Plan “by updating the science to account for the impacts of climate change and restore trust and transparency in water management”.</p>
<p>This spending is timely. The past decade and more has seen risk-averse government agencies commission water research through narrow briefs to the government-owned CSIRO and other contractors. In one instance, the South Australian Royal Commission into the <a href="https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2019-01/apo-nid217606.pdf">Murray-Darling Basin</a> described this research as “improperly pressured” and representing “maladministration”.</p>
<p>The situation worsened when the research program into better water management commissioned by the independent National Water Commission was <a href="https://www.water-alternatives.org/index.php/alldoc/articles/volume-13/issue-1/561-a13-1-1">axed under Abbott</a> in 2014.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/excessive-water-extractions-not-climate-change-are-most-to-blame-for-the-darling-river-drying-192621">Excessive water extractions, not climate change, are most to blame for the Darling River drying</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This has resulted in science that may not be independently peer-reviewed and often doesn’t address the big questions.</p>
<p>For instance, after allocating around <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/programs/water-reform">$13 billion</a> for water management reforms in the basin since 2008, governments still can’t tell the public:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>why water inflows into South Australia are about <a href="https://wentworthgroup.org/2020/09/mdb-flows-2020/">22% lower</a> than basin modelling projected (excluding climatic variability)</p></li>
<li><p>the area and types of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF20172">wetlands watered</a> each year </p></li>
<li><p>if <a href="https://doi.org/10.1071/MF21057">threatened species populations</a> are recovering. </p></li>
</ul>
<p>Further, water institutions in the basin do not currently adequately <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S146290112030215X">address the threat</a> of climate change.</p>
<h2>Returning water to the rivers</h2>
<p>Measures to implement the basin plan are meant to be complete in mid-2024. Consequently, allocated funding for all Basin water reforms was due to decline markedly after this point. Yet, major and expensive elements of the plan have still <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-03/reckoning-coming-for-murray-darling-basin-plan/101020756">not been implemented</a>.</p>
<p>In just one example, the Victorian and NSW governments were supposed <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2020.1832723">to reach agreements</a> and pay over 3,300 riverside land owners to fill river channels and allow water to spill safely onto the lower-most floodplains. This would conserve nearly 375,000 hectares of wetlands, and maximise conservation of flora and fauna with the limited volume of available environmental water. </p>
<p>However, since 2013 the state governments have failed to make a single agreement with land owners.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A river on a sunny day, behind two big trees" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/492026/original/file-20221027-12-vkvslq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Murrumbidgee river at Yanga Woolshed, a major tributary of the Murray-Darling Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jamie Pittock</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Hundreds of billions of litres of water that were supposed to have been reallocated to the environment are still missing. The latest federal budget describes the lack of water recovery for the environment as an unquantified “fiscal risk”. </p>
<p>Waving a big stick, Labor has allocated initial funding for meeting the environmental water targets in the plan. The amount of the funding has not been disclosed. It could involve purchasing water entitlements from farmers who volunteer to sell them – a move deeply <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/oct/27/farmers-gear-up-to-fight-water-buybacks-as-federal-budget-allocates-funding-to-meet-murray-darling-targets">opposed by</a> the state governments and the irrigation industry.</p>
<p>The budget also funds repairs to other broken elements of the basin’s water governance. After a decade of cuts, the now Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp2/index.htm">will have funding</a> restored to, among other goals, improve “the health of our rivers and freshwater ecosystems”.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-has-an-ugly-legacy-of-denying-water-rights-to-aboriginal-people-not-much-has-changed-141743">Australia has an ugly legacy of denying water rights to Aboriginal people. Not much has changed</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There is also money to start work on re-establishing a National Water Commission, and <a href="https://budget.gov.au/2022-23-october/content/bp1/index.htm">to reform</a> the much criticised water trading markets to make them more transparent and robust. </p>
<p>Finally, the budget allocates $40 million to begin addressing the appalling dispossession of water from Indigenous peoples, who now hold <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2021.1970094?src=recsys">just 0.17%</a> of surface water entitlements in the basin. It’s a small but important first step for water justice.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193380/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pittock is a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, and is a member of and advises a number of other environmental non-government organizations. Many moons ago he received funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (RIP) for research on on climate change adaptation in the Murray-Darling Basin.</span></em></p>In our land of drought and flooding rains, better water management should feature in every federal budget. The new budget delivers it – but not everyone is happy.Jamie Pittock, Professor, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1926212022-10-24T19:03:02Z2022-10-24T19:03:02ZExcessive water extractions, not climate change, are most to blame for the Darling River drying<p>You may recall when, at the height of summer in 2019, more than a million fish <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-08/second-fish-kill-in-darling-river-at-menindee/10696632">floated to the surface</a> of the Darling River’s Menindee Lakes. Iconic Murray cod and silver perch were among the dead.</p>
<p>A couple of months later, an <a href="https://www.science.org.au/supporting-science/science-policy-and-sector-analysis/reports-and-publications/fish-kills-report">expert investigation</a> concluded excessive upstream water extractions, compounded by the ongoing drought, were to blame. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/469282/sub-45-iig-mdb.pdf">another investigation</a> in 2020, the Murray-Darling Basin Inspector-General reported he was informed that water theft, lack of compliance, unsustainable water extraction rules, and floodplain harvesting were driving the northern basin’s declines in stream flow – the measured volume of water flowing in a river or stream over a given period of time.</p>
<p>And yet, there appears to be a <a href="https://water.dpie.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/500728/nsw-climate-model-report.pdf">widely held view</a> that we can place most of the blame of drying rivers on climate change. So what’s the truth? And why does it matter? </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2021.0296">new research</a> investigated the effects of climate change and water resource development on the Darling River over the past 40 years. We found much of the recent decline of river (stream) flow has not been because of climate change, but almost certainly a result of increased water extractions.</p>
<p>This is important, because naming climate change as the primary culprit for drying rivers may let water managers, ministers and irrigation lobbyists off the hook for failing to <a href="https://wentworthgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/MDB-flows.pdf#:%7E:text=Expected%20river%20flows%20were%20estimated%20by%20sampling%20the,than%20expected%2C%20even%20accounting%20for%20the%20climatic%20conditions.">effectively control water consumption</a>. </p>
<p>Our point isn’t that climate change is not happening – it’s here, <a href="https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/changing-climate/climate-trends/australian-trends/">it’s now</a> and it’s <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature">global</a> in its devastation. But, our research shows climate change shouldn’t be used as a “get out of jail free” card to excuse bad decision-making and poor planning decisions. </p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>The Darling river is also known as the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-04/support-for-government-proposal-dual-name-darling-river-baaka/11761352">Baaka by the Barkindji</a>, whose Country includes <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/water-management/infrastructure/Menindee-lakes">Menindee Lakes</a>. </p>
<p>The Baaka-Darling River has nine major headwater dams and tributaries with a total storage capacity in excess of 4,500 billion litres, about equal to nine Sydney harbours. For decades, it has had <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00191-2">high rates of water extraction</a>, provided by 15 main channel weirs and more than 1,000 small weirs along its 1,000 kilometre or so length.</p>
<p>Our analyses looked back at 40 years of meteorological trends and water extractions data, then separated the effects of each on declining river flows. </p>
<p>We found between 1981 and 2020, the northern Murray-Darling Basin has become drier (11 millilitres less rainfall per decade, on average) and hotter (by 0.26°C per decade, on average) – a trend consistent with climate change projections. </p>
<p>These trends reduced stream flows on the nearby, pristine Paroo River by 28%. The Paroo River has had virtually no water extractions in the last 40 years, which means that lower rainfall and higher temperatures completely explain its decline in river flows. </p>
<p>But this is not true for the Baaka-Darling River. We found stream flows declined by 53% at the Baaka-Darling River. Less than half of this decline could be explained by meteorological trends. This means the rest – more than half of the decline in stream flows – was almost certainly due to other factors: namely, increased water extractions.</p>
<p>Further peer-reviewed evidence in support of our conclusion can be drawn from the large, unmetered, and possibly increasing, water extractions associated with <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13241583.2022.2042061?journalCode=twar20%22%22">floodplain harvesting</a>. This harvesting may be in the order of hundreds of billions of litres per year in the northern Basin, some of which may be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/sep/06/nsw-irrigators-under-investigation-over-unexplained-flood-plain-harvesting-of-200gl-of-water?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">illegal</a>. </p>
<p>This is coupled with much smaller <a href="https://opal.latrobe.edu.au/articles/report/Final_report_of_the_Independent_Assessment_of_the_2018-19_fish_deaths_in_the_lower_Darling/16869591">increases in</a> metered water extractions along the Baaka-Darling River and its tributaries over the period 2014-15 to 2017-18.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/its-official-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-hasnt-met-its-promise-to-our-precious-rivers-so-where-to-now-188074">It's official: the Murray-Darling Basin Plan hasn't met its promise to our precious rivers. So where to now?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What this means for wildlife</h2>
<p>Reduced river flows are <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018WR022956">profoundly damaging</a> to the ecosystems of the Murray Darling Basin, and its harms <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/emr.12428">accumulate over time</a>. A key pillar of these ecosystems are waterbirds, such as herons, spoonbills, ibis and kingfishers. </p>
<p>Our research investigated the abundance of waterbirds on the Paroo and Baaka-Darling rivers. We found they were more resilient on the Paroo River wetlands than at Menindee Lakes along the Baaka-Darling River. </p>
<p>In 40 years, the average decline in waterbird abundance on the Paroo River Wetlands was 50%, compared to 75% at Menindee Lakes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490798/original/file-20221020-23-3k6de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Four water fowls stand on leafless tree trunks" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490798/original/file-20221020-23-3k6de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/490798/original/file-20221020-23-3k6de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490798/original/file-20221020-23-3k6de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490798/original/file-20221020-23-3k6de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490798/original/file-20221020-23-3k6de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490798/original/file-20221020-23-3k6de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/490798/original/file-20221020-23-3k6de3.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Waterbirds are a key pillar of Murray-Darling Basin ecosystems.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We also simulated what would happen if water were to be reallocated from irrigation to increase the flow in the river, during a drought. Our results suggest the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0376-1/">resilience</a> of waterbird numbers at Menindee Lakes and nearby could be improved. </p>
<p>Increases in river flows during drought (relative to business as usual) also supports people, as it improves the availability and quality of drinking water in downstream communities, such <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-12/wilcannia-residents-suffering-with-poor-quality-drinking-water/6011950">Wilcannia</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-16/menindee-locals-living-with-filthy-tap-water/10717744">Menindee</a>. And it’s crucial for the habitats of fish, wetland plants, trees, mammals, frogs, and reptiles. </p>
<p>Based on our calculations, the annual cost would be around 1.3% of estimated total irrigation profits if 100 gigalitres per year of water were reallocated to increased stream flows. It would be 4% of estimated total irrigation profits if 300 gigalitres per year of water were reallocated to increased stream flows. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/robber-barons-and-high-speed-traders-dominate-australias-water-market-166422">Robber barons and high-speed traders dominate Australia’s water market</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Understanding river flows</h2>
<p>Understanding why our rivers are getting drier helps us to respond to both the problem of climate changes and to water mismanagement.
Fundamental to water management is knowing how much water is in the entire system, where it is, where it goes, and what value it brings. The <a href="https://www.atse.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/ATSE-Technologies-for-water-management-220912.pdf">measurement technologies</a> to answer these questions are available.</p>
<p>If we are to meet the key objects of the Water Act and the Basin Plan, we need to reduce water extractions and to reallocate water on this iconic river to ensure minimum river flows for downstream communities and for critically important environments. </p>
<p>This <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/25/time-is-running-out-on-the-murray-darling-plan-should-tanya-plibersek-reach-for-the-big-guns">task is urgent</a> if Australia is to achieve the goal of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan a decade ago: to create and maintain healthy sustainable working rivers.</p>
<p>The last thing Australia needs in a climate change crisis is for water ministers and their advisers to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8489.12288">bury their heads in the sand</a>, about what can, and must, be done to ensure a much more sustainable water outcome <a href="https://www.water.vic.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0033/572982/Water-is-life-Draft-.pdf">for all</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/existential-threat-to-our-survival-see-the-19-australian-ecosystems-already-collapsing-154077">'Existential threat to our survival': see the 19 Australian ecosystems already collapsing</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192621/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Quentin Grafton has received research from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gilad Bino receives funding from state and federal governments (Australian Research Council, Murray-Darling Basin Authority) and non-government organisations.
Gilad Bino is affiliated with Charles Sturt University, Institute of Land Water and Society as an adjunct Lecturer </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Williams is affiliated with Charles Sturt University, Institute of Land Water and Society as an honorary Professor </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Kingsford works for UNSW Sydney. He receives funding from government (Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Australian, NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria Governments, Australian Research Council) and non-government organisations. He is affiliated with the Ecological Society of Australia, Birdlife Australia, Society for Conservation Biology Oceania. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Long Chu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Climate change shouldn’t be used as a “get out-of jail free” card to excuse bad decision-making and poor planning decisions.Quentin Grafton, Australian Laureate Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityGilad Bino, Senior lecturer, UNSW SydneyJohn Williams, Adjunct ProfessorLong Chu, Associate Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityRichard Kingsford, Professor, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1918642022-10-14T01:41:34Z2022-10-14T01:41:34ZCotton on: one of Australia’s most lucrative farming industries is in the firing line as climate change worsens<p>The northern Murray-Darling Basin produces 93% of Australia’s cotton. Cotton is one of Australia’s biggest agricultural industries – worth <a href="https://www.csiro.au/en/research/production/materials/cotton">about A$2 billion</a> each year – and a steady supply of water is crucial for production. </p>
<p>Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/w14193073">recently published research</a> reveals that since the 1990s, average April-May rainfall in the northern basin has decreased significantly. The decrease coincides with accelerated climate change.</p>
<p>Our research also found average or below-average rainfall in the remaining cool season months June to September. Without substantial spring or summer rain, this leads to less rainfall runoff in dams – and less water to irrigate cotton and other crops.</p>
<p>Climate change will bring more frequent droughts, as well as more frequent flooding. These two future extremes in rainfall both have the potential to damage Australia’s lucrative cotton industry.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="drought-stricken cotton crop" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488880/original/file-20221009-58212-h17m5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488880/original/file-20221009-58212-h17m5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488880/original/file-20221009-58212-h17m5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488880/original/file-20221009-58212-h17m5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488880/original/file-20221009-58212-h17m5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488880/original/file-20221009-58212-h17m5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488880/original/file-20221009-58212-h17m5t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New research suggests more frequent drought will wreak further havoc on Australia’s cotton industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Danny Casey/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A vital river system</h2>
<p>The northern Murray-Darling Basin spans northeast New South Wales and southeast Queensland. It comprises floodplains of streams or small rivers that feed into the Darling River.</p>
<p>Cotton in the basin is mostly grown on clay soils on floodplains next to rivers. When rivers flood after heavy rain, the soil stores water for later plant growth.</p>
<p>Water stored in the cooler months ensures an adequate supply of water in summer, when cotton crops require the most water. Insufficient rain in the cooler months means dam water will be needed in summer. But highly variable summer rain means this water is not always available.</p>
<p>Maintaining water flow through the northern Murray-Darling Basin is crucial. Many farms and communities rely on river water for human consumption and to irrigate cotton and other crops. And a sustainable water supply is vital for the ecological health of wetlands, waterholes and floodplains.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="dry river bed with tree trunk bearing words 'save the Darling'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488883/original/file-20221009-78090-9iaitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488883/original/file-20221009-78090-9iaitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488883/original/file-20221009-78090-9iaitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488883/original/file-20221009-78090-9iaitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488883/original/file-20221009-78090-9iaitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488883/original/file-20221009-78090-9iaitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488883/original/file-20221009-78090-9iaitu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Darling River is the heart of the northern Murray-Darling Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Our research examined annual April-May rainfall in the northern Murray-Darling Basin from 1911 to 2019. Other research has concentrated on autumn rainfall for southeast Australia but not specifically on this part of the basin.</p>
<p>We already knew 94% of water gauges in the northern Murray-Darling Basin <a href="https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/download?pid=csiro:EP206574&dsid=DS1">showed declining trends</a> in water flow since records began in 1970. Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-95531-4">previous research</a> had also found a declining rainfall trend in April-May in the southern Murray-Darling Basin. So we wanted to see if the trend was similar in the north.</p>
<p>For the drought from 2017 to 2019, almost all the northern parts of the basin experienced their driest ever period or close to it.</p>
<p>But the consecutive La Niñas of 2020-21 and 2021-22 brought heavy rain to the northern Murray-Darling Basin – filling dams and leading to flooding.</p>
<p>Rain is generated by short-term events such as thunderstorms, as well as large-scale systems. In eastern Australia, these include <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/australian-climate-influences.shtml">climate drivers</a> such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and Indian Ocean Dipole. </p>
<p>These climate drivers influence weather over months and seasons. In the northern Murray-Darling Basin, they’re responsible for highly variable seasonal and annual rainfall. Specifically, we found:</p>
<ul>
<li>the El Niño-Southern Oscillation influences spring/summer rainfall</li>
<li>the Southern Annular Mode affects summer rainfall</li>
<li>the Indian Ocean Dipole is important for late winter/spring rainfall.</li>
</ul>
<p>Significantly, global warming was a prominent contributor to extremes of rainfall in all seasons, both individually and in combination with other climate drivers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-murrumbidgee-rivers-wet-season-height-has-dropped-by-30-since-the-1990s-and-the-outlook-is-bleak-165764">The Murrumbidgee River's wet season height has dropped by 30% since the 1990s — and the outlook is bleak</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="a dry river bed with green water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488887/original/file-20221009-59215-h59kcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488887/original/file-20221009-59215-h59kcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488887/original/file-20221009-59215-h59kcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488887/original/file-20221009-59215-h59kcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488887/original/file-20221009-59215-h59kcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488887/original/file-20221009-59215-h59kcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488887/original/file-20221009-59215-h59kcf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Global warming was a prominent contributor to extremes of rainfall in all seasons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>North vs south</h2>
<p>Typically, it rains more in the northern Murray-Darling Basin during the warmer season, and more in the south in the late cool season. Both receive significantly decreased rainfall in April and May. </p>
<p>So in the north, reduced April-May rainfall, coupled with the usual lower rainfall late in the cool season, can mean dams are not full heading into the warmer season where irrigation water is crucial for cotton crops.</p>
<p>A compounding factor is that the northern dams have <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/water-management/murray-darling-reports-data/water-in-storages">about one-third</a> the capacity of the south. What’s more, rising temperatures since the 1990s have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079332">increased evaporation</a> lost from vegetation across the basin – and during 2018-2019, the evaporation was higher in the north.</p>
<p>So what does all this mean? The results suggest global warming will both increase temperatures and rainfall extremes in the northern Murray-Darling Basin, bringing more frequent droughts and floods. The associated impact on yields will likely threaten the future of cotton farming – by far the basin’s most important crop.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/cotton-breeders-are-using-genetic-insights-to-make-this-global-crop-more-sustainable-185284">Cotton breeders are using genetic insights to make this global crop more sustainable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="tractor drives through cotton field at night" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488889/original/file-20221009-57880-obqrlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488889/original/file-20221009-57880-obqrlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488889/original/file-20221009-57880-obqrlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488889/original/file-20221009-57880-obqrlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488889/original/file-20221009-57880-obqrlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488889/original/file-20221009-57880-obqrlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488889/original/file-20221009-57880-obqrlo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate change likely threatens the future of cotton farming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dave Hunt/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>About 90% of Australia’s cotton crop is <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cotton%20and%20Products%20Annual_Canberra_Australia_AS2022-0006.pdf">irrigated</a>. This changes each year depending on how much natural rainfall is received across the cotton-growing catchments.</p>
<p>Our research confirms rainfall extremes in the northern Murray-Darling Basin are increasing. The subsequent longer and more frequent droughts and floods are likely to lead to lower cotton yields, which may affect the livelihood of the communities dependent on cotton farming. </p>
<p>River flows are affected by both rainfall and human management of rivers, such as the allocation of water for irrigation and other uses. More accurate rainfall models are needed to help state and local water authorities make crucial management decisions. These models should predict the climate drivers identified in our study.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-towns-run-dry-cotton-extracts-5-sydney-harbours-worth-of-murray-darling-water-a-year-its-time-to-reset-the-balance-133342">While towns run dry, cotton extracts 5 Sydney Harbours' worth of Murray Darling water a year. It's time to reset the balance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191864/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joshua Hartigan receives funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lance M Leslie and Milton Speer do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Worsening droughts and flooding likely threaten the future of cotton farming – by far the most important crop in the basin.Milton Speer, Visiting Fellow, School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology SydneyJoshua Hartigan, PhD Candidate, University of Technology SydneyLance M Leslie, Professor, School of Mathematical And Physical Sciences, University of Technology SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1880742022-08-03T07:44:32Z2022-08-03T07:44:32ZIt’s official: the Murray-Darling Basin Plan hasn’t met its promise to our precious rivers. So where to now?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477326/original/file-20220803-24-pv5yw8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3873%2C2595&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A long-awaited <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/mdb/policy/wesa-review">report</a> released on Tuesday found the amount of water promised to river environments under the Murray-Darling Basin Plan “cannot be achieved” under current settings. In short, the plan is failing on a key target. </p>
<p>The water is essential to protecting plants, animals and ecosystems along Australia’s most important river system.</p>
<p>One part of the plan stipulates that by 2024, 450 billion litres of water – a small proportion of the overall target – should be recovered and returned to rivers, wetlands and groundwater systems. This should be achieved through water efficiency programs funded by the Commonwealth. </p>
<p>But just two years out from the deadline, only 2.6 billion litres, or about 0.5% of this water, has actually been delivered. The findings have reignited debate about the Murray-Darling Basin – a running sore for which treatments abound, but seemingly no cure exists. </p>
<p>Before the May election, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pledged to deliver the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. But yesterday’s report, prepared by independent experts, casts serious doubt on whether that promise can be kept. The basin’s focus on a sustainable future is still a way off, and only political will can fix it.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-its-time-to-talk-about-our-water-emergency-139024">Australia, it's time to talk about our water emergency</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="headshot of blonde woman in light yellow jacket" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477330/original/file-20220803-1873-bzmrvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477330/original/file-20220803-1873-bzmrvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477330/original/file-20220803-1873-bzmrvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477330/original/file-20220803-1873-bzmrvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477330/original/file-20220803-1873-bzmrvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477330/original/file-20220803-1873-bzmrvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477330/original/file-20220803-1873-bzmrvc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Political will is needed to fix the Murray Darling Basin Plan. Pictured: Federal Environment and Water Minister Tanya Plibersek.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What’s this all about?</h2>
<p>You could be forgiven for not having read <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/mdb/policy/wesa-review">Tuesday’s report</a>, which bore the repellent title “Second review of the Water for the Environment Special Account”. It reflects the arcane and impenetrable jargon surrounding water management in the basin which hinders public understanding of this crucial policy area.</p>
<p>The plan involves “water recovery targets” to be met by “efficiency and constraints measures”. But what does that all mean? </p>
<p>Irrigators and other water users extract water from the rivers, streams and aquifers of the Murray-Darling Basin. Over the years, too much water has been extracted, which has left the basin in poor condition. </p>
<p>The A$13 billion Murray-Darling Basin Plan was meant to address this problem. Passed into law in 2012 under the Gillard Labor government, it promised to deliver 3,200 billion litres of water to the environment each year, by buying back water allocated to extractors and retaining it in the river system. </p>
<p>The goal comprised two targets for water to be delivered to the environment each year: 2,750 billion litres as soon as possible, and an additional 450 billion litres later, if it did not cause significant socio-economic impact. To do the latter, the federal government established a $1.8 billion Commonwealth fund to invest in water efficiency projects that would deliver water back to the environment.</p>
<p>Complicating matters, irrigators and others were opposed to water buybacks. In 2015, the Coalition government put <a href="https://www.unisa.edu.au/unisanews/2019/may/story9/">a stop</a> to the practice, despite its proven <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/murray-darling-water-recovery/report/water-recovery-report.pdf">cost-effectiveness</a> compared to alternatives such as subsidising dams and channels under efficiency programs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="men yell and gesture during protest" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477334/original/file-20220803-17-iznlyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477334/original/file-20220803-17-iznlyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477334/original/file-20220803-17-iznlyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477334/original/file-20220803-17-iznlyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477334/original/file-20220803-17-iznlyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477334/original/file-20220803-17-iznlyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477334/original/file-20220803-17-iznlyp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Irrigators and others were opposed to water buybacks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lukas Coch/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Water savings were to come from measures such as improving water efficiency on farms, and funding irrigators to reduce evaporation from dams by building them deeper.</p>
<p>But engineering does not easily replace ecological complexity shaped over millennia. Making water move more quickly down a river produces casualties: the creeks and wetlands and groundwater systems that rely on it.</p>
<p>Major efficiency projects have been exposed as <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/basin-plan/report/basin-plan-overview.pdf">inadequte</a>. They predominantly just move environmental water from one part of the basin to the other, at significant public cost. </p>
<p>So what’s the upshot of all this? According to Tuesday’s report, under current efficiency measures only 60 billion litres of water can be returned to the basin environment by 2024. What’s more, the original target of 2,750 billion litres has <a href="https://www.dcceew.gov.au/water/policy/mdb/progress-recovery">not yet been achieved</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-looked-at-35-years-of-rainfall-and-learnt-how-droughts-start-in-the-murray-darling-basin-145766">We looked at 35 years of rainfall and learnt how droughts start in the Murray-Darling Basin</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Riverside tree with branch painted 'save the Darling'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477338/original/file-20220803-15-359kso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477338/original/file-20220803-15-359kso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477338/original/file-20220803-15-359kso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477338/original/file-20220803-15-359kso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477338/original/file-20220803-15-359kso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477338/original/file-20220803-15-359kso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477338/original/file-20220803-15-359kso.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Coalition claimed its policy would not harm the river system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Our rivers remain in trouble</h2>
<p>After all this effort and debate, the health of the Murray-Darling Basin continues to degrade. </p>
<p>The State of the Environment report released this month found water extraction and drought left water levels at <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/19/labor-says-it-wont-put-head-in-the-sand-as-it-releases-shocking-environment-report">record lows</a> in 2019. Rivers and catchments are mostly in poor condition, and native fish populations fell by more than 90% in the past 150 years. </p>
<p>Who could forget the disaster of late 2018 and early 2019, when <a href="https://www.science.org.au/academy-newsletter/february-2019-124/academy-produces-scientific-report-darling-river-fish-kills#:%7E:text=In%20the%20wake%20of%20three,of%20river%20near%20Menindee%2C%20NSW.">millions of fish</a> died at Menindee Lakes? That disaster was <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/researchpapers/Documents/Murray%20Darling%20Basin%20-%20fish%20kills%20and%20current%20conditions.pdf">associated with</a> low river flows, from the drought exacerbated by over-extraction.</p>
<p>First Nations peoples, river communities and others that rely on healthy rivers have also <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718519303641">borne the costs</a> of this policy failure. </p>
<p>Recent rainfall and flooding has bought breathing space, but drought will return, and climate change is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128181522000127">projected </a>to make the basin drier. </p>
<p>Other factors are denying rivers the water they need. They include <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-03/the-mystery-of-the-murray-darlings-vanishing-flows/12612166">water</a> <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2021-08-09/irrigators-lose-court-appeal-against-water-theft-charge/100362370">theft</a> and poor policy – such as the NSW government’s commitment to let water be harvested from floodplains, against <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/17/nsw-flood-plain-harvesting-rules-wont-protect-environment-government-advisers-warn#:%7E:text=Media-,NSW%20flood%20plain%20harvesting%20rules%20won,protect%20environment%2C%20government%20advisers%20warn&text=The%20Perrottet%20government%20has%20been,in%20the%20Murray%20Darling%20Basin.">warnings</a> by its own advisers.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/robber-barons-and-high-speed-traders-dominate-australias-water-market-166422">Robber barons and high-speed traders dominate Australia’s water market</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="dead white fish float on water" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477337/original/file-20220803-1873-lop19q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/477337/original/file-20220803-1873-lop19q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477337/original/file-20220803-1873-lop19q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477337/original/file-20220803-1873-lop19q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477337/original/file-20220803-1873-lop19q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477337/original/file-20220803-1873-lop19q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/477337/original/file-20220803-1873-lop19q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Thousands of fish died at Menindee Lake after low river flows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">GRAEME MCCRABB</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Finding political will</h2>
<p>A crucial aspect not covered in the report is the lack of credible information on how much water is actually recovered by water efficiency programs. An independent audit on this is urgently needed.</p>
<p>And there remain opportunities to implement more efficient and cost-effective ways of recovering water for the environment. This could include buying back water from willing irrigators, while recognising the potential local economic effects. </p>
<p>It’s a politically difficult move – sure to attract opposition from the Nationals, as well as the NSW and Victorian governments.</p>
<p>But the health of the Murray-Darling Basin is essential for all Australians. As this latest report shows, our politicians must finally find the will to secure the basin’s future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/188074/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Kingsford receives funding from State and Commonwealth Governments, including the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, as well as philanthropic funding. He is also a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists. He is a member of the Society for Conservation Biology, Birdlife Australia and Ecological Society of Australia. </span></em></p>Federal Labor has pledged to deliver the Murray Darling Basin Plan. But a new report casts serious doubt on that promise.Richard Kingsford, Professor, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1836362022-06-22T03:11:36Z2022-06-22T03:11:36ZGrape growers are adapting to climate shifts early – and their knowledge can help other farmers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470168/original/file-20220622-21-g5pynh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=10%2C0%2C3620%2C2124&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s commonly assumed Australia’s farmers and cities are divided over climate issues. This is not true. After all, farmers are on the front line and face the realities of our shifting climate on a daily basis. </p>
<p>In regional Australia, our research has found many farmers are already responding to climate change threats and finding <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0743016718301645?casa_token=Y8PsvpZw5QQAAAAA:rhJ-fTlyRMGRBIK6awZ0uHlORcIsHSyjkJmPriPmam0HOFacVVIOU-II-5An1kmU5DRK3bkO">ways to adapt</a>. </p>
<p>Wine grape growers are among those who are <a href="https://theconversation.com/message-in-a-bottle-the-wine-industry-gives-farmers-a-taste-of-what-to-expect-from-climate-change-45361">responding fastest</a>. That’s because their crop is extremely sensitive to weather and climatic shifts. Growers have had to learn quickly how to adapt to safeguard their industry. Think pruning for better canopy management, growing cover crops to keep the ground cooler and promote soil health, and reducing how much water they use in irrigation. </p>
<p>Establishing a vineyard takes a long time – up to five years until the vines produce a full yield. Grape growers have to take a medium to long term perspective to farming, weighing up forecasts about climate change and market trends a decade or more in advance. Successful vignerons recognise the need to work together in a coordinated way to achieve positive outcomes. Maintaining local agency is crucial, and relinquishing this can open up new risks.</p>
<p>Australia’s broader farming community will have to draw on similar adaptations – preparing for less rainfall in some areas, or finding ways to capture the enormous but less frequent rain bursts predicted for other areas.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470170/original/file-20220622-21-xhsfw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="grape vines irrigation" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470170/original/file-20220622-21-xhsfw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470170/original/file-20220622-21-xhsfw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470170/original/file-20220622-21-xhsfw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470170/original/file-20220622-21-xhsfw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470170/original/file-20220622-21-xhsfw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470170/original/file-20220622-21-xhsfw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/470170/original/file-20220622-21-xhsfw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Vineyards have had to reduce water use.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Why have wine grape growers moved early?</h2>
<p>Wine grape growers have had to act early because wine has enormous market differentiation based on variety. In turn, choice of varieties depends heavily on water and soil. </p>
<p>During the 1990s and 2000s, Australian wine exports boomed. The lion’s share of the cheap and cheerful Aussie wines bound for supermarket shelves around the world came from grapes from extensive irrigated vineyards throughout the Murray-Darling Basin, where grapes are grown relatively cheaply with lots of sunshine and lots of water. But the days of water abundance are no longer guaranteed. </p>
<p><a href="https://rai.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-8322.12725">Our research</a> in South Australia’s Langhorne Creek wine region has found climate change is having most impact in respect to water. </p>
<p>Historically, this region has relied on groundwater or surface irrigation from seasonal floods along local watercourses. But as groundwater suffered from over-extraction, the aquifers became saltier. </p>
<p>In response, farmers sought to minimise reliance on groundwater. Some vineyards even <a href="https://www.fabal.com.au/water-infrastructure">installed desalination plants</a> to make groundwater usable again. Community leaders spearheaded a push to cut their own allocations and seek supply from nearby Lake Alexandrina, which the Murray and other rivers empty into. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-farming-future-tasmania-14688">Australia's farming future: Tasmania</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Then came the 2001–2009 Millennium Drought, which led to the shallow lake beginning to dry up through lack of inflow. The crisis of these drought years is seared into regional memory. Without a clear end in sight, many began to wonder if the region had a future. </p>
<p>The community backed a new private-public pipeline drawing directly from the Murray. When the new pipeline opened in 2009, it gave Langhorne Creek an important boost to water security. But it did so at the expense of tying its future directly to that of the Murray Darling Basin. </p>
<p>Now, farming in Langhorne Creek is at the mercy of everything that happens upstream. After two years of La Niña rains, there’s plenty of water in the system. For the time being, things are good – but farmers know better than most that good times don’t last.</p>
<p>In response to the broader shifts, many grape growers have increased plantings of southern Mediterranean varieties such as tempranillo or vermentino, better suited to hotter and drier conditions than traditional mainstays like shiraz and cabernet sauvignon grapes.</p>
<p>To date, Langhorne Creek offers an excellent example of how a strong community can act effectively in the face of environmental threat. As the region becomes integrated into the wider basin, there will be new challenges in navigating basin-wide management policies, a broadening bureaucratisation of decision making, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-restore-public-trust-in-the-governing-of-the-murray-darling-basin-109797">falling public trust</a> in basin management.</p>
<p>While the technological fix of a new pipeline has helped grape growers overcome an immediate water supply issue, it does not defeat broader climate risk. What it does show is the need for forward thinking. The task for current and future farmers is to remain vigilant in confronting new climate risks, and responding through strong and coordinated local action and political cooperation. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/developing-a-taste-for-sagrantino-climate-change-and-australias-wine-industry-4399">Developing a taste for Sagrantino: climate change and Australia's wine industry</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183636/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Skinner receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Douglas Bardsley has received funding from the South Australian and federal governments, including the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Georgina Drew receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>Climate change has forced Australia’s grape growers to band together to secure water, as well as plant new varieties and cut water use.Bill Skinner, Postdoctoral research associate, University of AdelaideDouglas Bardsley, Associate professor, University of AdelaideGeorgina Drew, Associate Professor and Program Director, Stretton Institute, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1664222021-08-30T20:05:50Z2021-08-30T20:05:50ZRobber barons and high-speed traders dominate Australia’s water market<p>What began as an informal arrangement between neighbouring farmers, where one farm’s surplus water could be transferred to another, has over the past two decades morphed into a complex set of commodity markets whose annual turnover exceeds A$1.8 billion.</p>
<p>When the Murray–Darling Basin water markets were established, little consideration was given to training farmers or equipping them with the tools they would need.</p>
<p>“Many older farmers struggle even to use a smartphone,” one farmer told us in research for our book <a href="https://www.textpublishing.com.au/books/sold-down-the-river">Sold Down The River</a>, to be published this week. “They simply can’t use the water trading platforms.”</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418202/original/file-20210827-22966-1q3grb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418202/original/file-20210827-22966-1q3grb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/418202/original/file-20210827-22966-1q3grb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418202/original/file-20210827-22966-1q3grb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418202/original/file-20210827-22966-1q3grb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=915&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418202/original/file-20210827-22966-1q3grb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418202/original/file-20210827-22966-1q3grb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/418202/original/file-20210827-22966-1q3grb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1150&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But others can, to their huge advantage. “Being a water broker is a lot like buying and selling shares or any other financial asset,” one investor said last year. </p>
<p>“There is no depreciation, there’s no goodwill, there is no maintenance and repairs. There are not many asset classes that are that good.”</p>
<p>The 2015 film adaptation of Michael Lewis’s bestselling <a href="https://youtu.be/vgqG3ITMv1Q">The Big Short</a> ends with a chilling line. </p>
<p>Investment genius Michael Burry had predicted the 2007 US housing market collapse and the ensuing financial crisis but, the movie said, was now “focusing all of his trading on one commodity — water”.</p>
<p>In a shocking report delivered to the treasurer in February, the Australian <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/focus-areas/inquiries-finalised/murray-darling-basin-water-markets-inquiry-0">Competition and Consumer Commission</a> found “scant rules governing the conduct of market participants, and no particular body to oversee trading activities, undermining confidence in fair and efficient markets”.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In particular, water market intermediaries such as brokers and exchange platforms currently operate in a mostly unregulated environment, resulting in a lack of clarity regarding the role brokers play, and permitting undisclosed conflicts of interest to arise.</p>
<p>Trading behaviours that can undermine the integrity of markets, such as market manipulation, are not prohibited, insider trading prohibitions are insufficient, and information gaps make these types of detrimental conduct difficult to detect.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The report has shifted the debate about water in the Murray-Darling Basin. Regulators, politicians, officials and researchers all realise that something has gone horribly wrong.</p>
<h2>Scant rules, little oversight</h2>
<p>At the beginning of the water trading experiment, little effort was put into defining the goals of water trading, or how its success would be measured. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-murrumbidgee-rivers-wet-season-height-has-dropped-by-30-since-the-1990s-and-the-outlook-is-bleak-165764">The Murrumbidgee River's wet season height has dropped by 30% since the 1990s — and the outlook is bleak</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Yet despite that oversight, it’s easy to conclude that on any relevant measure the market has failed. It has failed the environment. It has failed farmers and towns. It has failed to recognise the rights of Indigenous Australians. And it has failed in its basic function of allocating water to where it can best be used.</p>
<p>Like a plane crash, the market failed because crucial systems and backups broke down simultaneously. </p>
<p>Here are the top four fractures in the multi-point failure:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Essential design steps weren’t taken. The designers spent little time on ensuring proper market conduct and integrity. There are multiple exchanges and at no particular moment is there a clear picture of the market value of water rights, even within the same valley. Large irrigators appear to be taking water over which they don’t have rights and selling it outside the markets to farmers of walnuts and other thirsty crops, leaving <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/water-watchdog-has-big-riverina-irrigator-in-its-sights-over-diversion-20210611-p580d0.html">dying rivers</a> in their wake.</p></li>
<li><p>To ensure the water market was “liquid”, the designers removed restrictions on who could own and trade water rights. Then they took the extraordinary step of exempting traders from regulation that would normally apply to financial markets and markets for commodities. External traders used tactics no one anticipated including market manipulation and high-speed trading.</p></li>
<li><p>The <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2016C00469">Commonwealth Water Act</a> gave responsibility for overseeing the markets to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, whose expertise is competition, rather than the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, whose expertise is in finance. A <a href="https://treasury.gov.au/consultation/corporations-and-australian-securities-and-investments-commission-legislation-amendment-water-trading-exemptions-regulation-2014">2014 regulation</a> expressly exempted basic tradable water rights from the definition of “derivative” under the ASIC Act.</p></li>
<li><p>There is little precision in the water policy debate. Terms such as “hoarding”, “efficiency”, “speculation” and “investment” are used without consistency or clarity. People in and around the Murray-Darling Basin have been talking over each other for years, allowing rorts that should have been caught early to persist.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Added to these are a series of counter-intuitive tax advantages and subsidies that drive water rights away from the best land toward arid lands far down-river. </p>
<h2>The silence is deafening</h2>
<p>A giant policy experiment is sucking hundreds of millions of dollars each year out of the Murray-Darling Basin, and it is sending water away from our most productive land and what used to be our most vibrant food-bowl communities.</p>
<p>The federal government has had the <a href="https://www.accc.gov.au/focus-areas/inquiries-finalised/murray-darling-basin-water-markets-inquiry/final-report">report</a> of the Competition Commission’s water markets inquiry since February. The silence is deafening.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/water-injustice-runs-deep-in-australia-fixing-it-means-handing-control-to-first-nations-155286">Water injustice runs deep in Australia. Fixing it means handing control to First Nations</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In our research and in our book, we have mapped out a way forward for allocating scarce irrigation water and balancing the management of our largest river system. </p>
<p>Indigenous rights, environmental sustainability and food security are but some of what’s at stake.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/166422/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott is affiliated with H4 CO PTY LTD and is a panel member at the Energy Transition Hub and is a member of the Australian Labor Party. Scott is a senior advisor to the Smart Energy Council and consults to governments, businesses and communities. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Kells does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A new book says Australia’s 20-year water trading experiment is sucking hundreds of millions of dollars each year out of the Murray-Darling Basin and directing water away from productive land.Scott Hamilton, Strategic Advisory Panel Member, Australian-German Energy Transition Hub, The University of MelbourneStuart Kells, Adjunct Professor, College of Arts, Social Sciences and Commerce, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1634212021-06-25T04:07:09Z2021-06-25T04:07:09ZVIDEO: Michelle Grattan on the return of Barnaby Joyce<p>University of Canberra Professorial Fellow Michelle Grattan and University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor and President Professor Paddy Nixon discuss the week in politics.</p>
<p>This week Michelle and Paddy discuss the parliamentary sitting week, which commenced with a spill of the National party, resulting in Barnaby Joyce being elected leader of the party and deputy prime minister. Subsequently some Nationals abandoned their Liberal colleagues to put forward amendments on the Murray-Darling Basin Plan legislation. </p>
<p>The question now is, can a new peace be formed in the Coalition?</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VQja8NDlQpU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163421/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Michelle Grattan discusses the political week that was with Professor Paddy Nixon.Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1633812021-06-24T13:17:52Z2021-06-24T13:17:52ZGrattan on Friday: Blowin’ in the wind with Barnaby<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/408184/original/file-20210624-25-1ji9gdl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C25%2C5568%2C3675&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> </figcaption></figure><p>Scott Morrison is fond of telling his troops they’re in a boat. On Thursday he said Barnaby Joyce was “a wind in the sails”. Perhaps better described as a gale hitting the craft, some nervous Liberals would think.</p>
<p>Political life changed dramatically for Morrison this week. Whether Joyce’s elevation will benefit or harm the government at the election is an open question, but right now it is a massive complication for the PM.</p>
<p>It’s unleashed a battle over power within the Coalition, and it’s intensified the perennial difficulties on climate policy.</p>
<p>The surreal backdrop in this final week of parliament before the winter break was Morrison quarantined at The Lodge, looming “virtually” over House of Representatives members, while Joyce, following his Tuesday swearing in, occupied the PM’s chair at the centre table, the focus of attention.</p>
<p>To say the least, the symbolism was unfortunate. As Morrison said in another context, nothing beats being face to face. Being on a screen, upstaged by your unpredictable new right hand man, is an especially unhappy place.</p>
<p>Behind the scenes, Morrison and Joyce negotiated the terms of their partnership. In the open, the restored leader let the Nationals run riot, in a way we haven’t seen for a long time.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-nationals-give-scott-morrison-a-muscle-man-to-deal-with-especially-on-net-zero-163109">View from The Hill: Nationals give Scott Morrison a muscle man to deal with — especially on net zero</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In the Senate on Wednesday and then in the lower House on Thursday Nationals moved amendments on water, challenging the Murray Darling Basin plan, in an open split with the Liberals. At one point Peter Dutton, as leader of the House, was trying to shut down Damian Drum, the chief Nationals whip.</p>
<p>The water ploy was a gesture, and the revolt is said to have been in the pipeline for months and would, its proponents say, have gone ahead under Michael McCormack.</p>
<p>But for Joyce it was a convenient message to Morrison: the new leader is willing, if need be, to fight dirty to get as much as he can of whatever he wants.</p>
<p>Morrison’s problems on climate policy, hard enough before this week, have just increased substantially. And indeed, so has the internal dilemma the Nationals face on the issue.</p>
<p>Previously it was thought McCormack and deputy David Littleproud might be open to some deal so Morrison could embrace the target of net zero by 2050 (firming his present stance of reaching net zero “preferably” by 2050).</p>
<p>But Joyce has a history of opposing a 2050 target. Despite this Littleproud (who remains deputy) continued this week to signal that he could see a deal. That’s a very odd situation.</p>
<p>In prime ministerial circles they remain hopeful of a deal, on the basis that Morrison and Joyce are pragmatists and money can smooth the way.</p>
<p>But opposition within the Nationals to the 2050 target was one important driver of the Joyce coup. If he did a backflip, that would anger many followers. He’s privately been sticking to his position this week.</p>
<p>In an exercise that had critics quickly recalling Joyce’s $100 roast during the carbon debate of the Labor years, Nationals senator Matt Canavan, a confidant of Joyce, conjured up a spectre of net zero in the cattle industry.</p>
<p>“Every cow emits about 2300kg of carbon dioxide equivalent gases a year,” Canavan wrote in The Australian. “The CSIRO estimated last year that to reach net zero emissions we would need to start with a carbon price of $30 a tonne now. Even a relatively small cattle producer runs about 1000 head. So they would be up for a $70,000-a-year cost under a net-zero policy.</p>
<p>"By 2050, the price would rise to more than $200 a tonne, taking the carbon bill on your steaks to a whopping $400,000 per year, per farm.”</p>
<p>Canavan will be a significant player in the months ahead, and in the climate debate. Formerly resources minister, he has not sought to return to the ministry. Potentially he is both an influence on Joyce (he once worked for him), and also, as a backbencher, a tosser of grenades to remind the Liberals of the Nationals’ clout.</p>
<p>Warren Entsch, a Liberal who holds the north Queensland marginal seat of Leichhardt, writing in the Sydney Morning Herald, put the other view.</p>
<p>“If the Nationals were really concerned about the livelihoods of farmers, perhaps they would do more to advocate for and enable the sector’s autonomy – rather than going off half-cocked and riding roughshod over a net zero 2050 emissions target.</p>
<p>"They might also like to consider what an increasingly warmer climate will mean for Australian agriculture,” Entsch said.</p>
<p>Unless Joyce shifts his position, Morrison surely can’t endorse the target. Joe Biden and Boris Johnson may or may not understand the concept of being “Barnaby’d”.</p>
<p>While the Joyce coup has transformed the dynamics within the Coalition, it wasn’t the worse thing confronting Morrison this week. That remains COVID and the flawed vaccine rollout. For all the numbers Morrison and Health Minister Greg Hunt sprout, the public are frustrated and weary and many people are worried.</p>
<p>The latest outbreak in NSW has seen fresh border closures and restrictions, and hit the state parliament – one minister has COVID and special arrangements were required to get the state budget passed. Premier Gladys Berejiklian said: “Since the pandemic has started, this is perhaps the scariest period that New South Wales is going through.”</p>
<p>COVID even wormed its way into the Barnaby story, with Joyce briefly absent at the start of Thursday’s question time because he thought he might have been a contact of a close contact (he was given an okay by a health official).</p>
<p>The rollout is still blighted by a shortage of supplies of Pfizer, hesitancy about vaccination in general and resistance to AstraZeneca in particular, and inadequate availability of convenient vaccination points.</p>
<p>Even limited outbreaks are disruptive, costly and unnerving, and there is always the danger of a major one occurring.</p>
<p>It may be, however, that the recent appointment of Lieutenant General “JJ” Frewen as COVID tsar is starting to improve the efficiency of the rollout. He’s asking a lot of questions, and bringing in some of his own logistics people to help with the organisation.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyces-return-and-john-andersons-loss-is-symbolic-of-a-political-culture-gone-awry-163077">Barnaby Joyce's return, and John Anderson's loss, is symbolic of a political culture gone awry</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Frewen’s task, while waiting for more Pfizer supplies, is to get the rollout architecture into better shape. This includes improving communication with the public and relations with the states, and ensuring there are more channels for delivering the vaccines when extra doses arrive.</p>
<p>A lot is now riding on Frewen’s performance. But, inevitably, not all the federal health bureaucrats are happy to find their patch taken over by the military man. It’s another power struggle in Canberra.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/163381/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Morrison and Joyce have negotiated the terms of their partnership. In the open, the restored leader let the Nationals run riot, in a way we haven’t seen for a long time, writes Michelle GrattanMichelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of CanberraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1484332020-11-03T19:07:34Z2020-11-03T19:07:34ZGood news from the River Murray: these 2 fish species have bounced back from the Millennium Drought in record numbers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366907/original/file-20201102-19-3arh03.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=193%2C8%2C5664%2C2959&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>This year marks a decade since the end of the Millennium Drought, when flood waters reached the mouth of the River Murray in 2010. For 1,200 days prior, Australia’s most iconic river had ceased flowing to the sea, causing populations of fish and other aquatic animals <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/fulltext/MF09315?subscribe=false">to plummet</a>.</p>
<p>In particular, native migratory fish, including congolli (<em>Pseudaphritis urvilli</em>) and pouched lamprey (<em>Geotria australis</em>), were <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/MF10024">severely impacted</a> by barriers to migration — such as barrages and weirs — and a lack of river flow.</p>
<p>However, our research has shown some clever engineering and increasing volumes of water for the environment are helping congolli and pouched lamprey to bounce back in record numbers.</p>
<p>With native fish in the Murray-Darling Basin just a fraction of what they were before European colonisation, rebuilding populations will be a long process. But learning from successes like this along the way will aid in the journey toward a healthier river.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366908/original/file-20201102-13-83jeue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An adult female congolli" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366908/original/file-20201102-13-83jeue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366908/original/file-20201102-13-83jeue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366908/original/file-20201102-13-83jeue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366908/original/file-20201102-13-83jeue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366908/original/file-20201102-13-83jeue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366908/original/file-20201102-13-83jeue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366908/original/file-20201102-13-83jeue.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An adult female congolli. These fish will spend 3-4 years in the River Murray before returning to the ocean to spawn.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brenton Zampatti</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What happened to fish in the Millennium Drought?</h2>
<p>From 2001 to 2009, south-eastern Australia experienced the most severe <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wrcr.20123">drought</a> in recorded history. </p>
<p>Unprecedented low rainfall and water extraction for irrigation and human consumption reduced water flows in the lower Murray by around 70%. Water levels in the Lower Lakes at the terminus of the river system fell to more than one metre below sea level.</p>
<p>To prevent saltwater from the ocean mixing with critical storages of freshwater, tidal barrages (dam-like structures) were closed, and the River Murray was disconnected from the sea. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-california-can-learn-from-australias-15-year-millennium-drought-55300">What California can learn from Australia’s 15-year millennium drought</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This was a <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/MF10024">big problem</a> for a number of migratory species, including pouched lamprey and congolli, which need to migrate between freshwater and saltwater to complete their lifecycles. </p>
<p>During the Millennium Drought, no lamprey were seen in the Lower Lakes and Coorong, while numbers of juvenile congolli declined. After more than three years of barrage closure, local populations were threatened with extinction.</p>
<p>But in late 2010, both species were saved by major flooding, when the Murray once again flowed to the sea, and abundances have continued to steadily improve over the past decade. </p>
<p>Several management initiatives were also critical in supporting recovery, even through the most recent drought. Notably, the installation of fish ladders and better water management. Fish ladders are water-filled channels with a series of steps that enable fish to swim around or over dams and weirs. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366910/original/file-20201102-20-b3b20x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366910/original/file-20201102-20-b3b20x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366910/original/file-20201102-20-b3b20x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366910/original/file-20201102-20-b3b20x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366910/original/file-20201102-20-b3b20x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366910/original/file-20201102-20-b3b20x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366910/original/file-20201102-20-b3b20x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366910/original/file-20201102-20-b3b20x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A fish ladder on the Murray Barrages. Fish swim through this structure to move from the estuary.
into the freshwater lakes and River Murray. Without fish ladders, fish are seldom able to move past the barrages.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brenton Zampatti</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Supporting fish migrations</h2>
<p>Native <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1442-8903.2004.00177.x">fish populations</a> in the Murray-Darling Basin are estimated to be approximately 10% of those pre-European settlement. Barriers to fish movement and altered river flows are two principal causes of decline.</p>
<p>The Murray Barrages were constructed in the 1930s, without consideration of fish passage, and it was 70 years before the first <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/emr.12093">fish ladder</a> was constructed in 2003.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-good-plan-to-help-darling-river-fish-recover-exists-so-lets-get-on-with-it-110168">A good plan to help Darling River fish recover exists, so let's get on with it</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In 2020, there are now 11 fish ladders spread across the Murray Barrages, and our <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925857416306231">research</a> has shown they effectively support vital migrations. </p>
<p>More fish ladders have been built on upstream weirs, together opening more than 2,000 kilometres of the River Murray to <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1442-8903.2006.00307.x">fish migration</a>. </p>
<p>However, water must be available to operate the fish ladders, and this is where <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/water/cewo/about-commonwealth-environmental-water">environmental water</a> plays a role. </p>
<p>In 2009-10, approximately 120 gigalitres of environmental water were delivered across the Basin. By 2017-18, this volume was greater than 1,200 gigalitres and included substantial volumes across the Murray Barrages. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-darling-river-is-simply-not-supposed-to-dry-out-even-in-drought-109880">The Darling River is simply not supposed to dry out, even in drought</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/issues-murray-darling-basin/water-for-environment/water-over-time">increase</a> has enabled the River Murray to continuously flow to the sea, restoring its <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/eco.1965">natural characteristics</a>, albeit at a significantly reduced volume.</p>
<p>What’s more, water for the environment has supported constant operation of the barrage fish ladders since 2010 — a huge win for lamprey and congolli.</p>
<h2>The bounce back</h2>
<p>From the lows of the Millennium Drought we have so far <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/water/cewo/media-release/lamprey-found-record-numbers-murray-barrages">this year</a> caught a record 101 individual pouched lamprey moving through the barrage fish ladders and <a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/topics/river-murray/improving-river-health/environmental-water/environmental-outcomes-of-environmental-flows/where-is-larry-the-lamprey">proceeding upstream</a>. This is up from last year’s catch of 61 fish. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366909/original/file-20201102-16-7auf2o.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Pouched lamprey" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366909/original/file-20201102-16-7auf2o.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/366909/original/file-20201102-16-7auf2o.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366909/original/file-20201102-16-7auf2o.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366909/original/file-20201102-16-7auf2o.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366909/original/file-20201102-16-7auf2o.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366909/original/file-20201102-16-7auf2o.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/366909/original/file-20201102-16-7auf2o.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pouched lamprey has been found in record numbers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brenton Zampatti</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Congolli populuations are also booming. From 2007 to 2010, we sampled a combined total of just over 1,000 congolli. Compare this to the summer of 2014-15, when we sampled more than 200,000 passing through the fishways. </p>
<p>Congolli is now one of the most abundant fish in the <a href="https://pir.sa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/355589/Fish_assemblage_structure,_movement_and_recruitment_in_the_Coorong_and_Lower_Lakes_in_201819.pdf">Coorong</a> and upstream of the barrages in the Lower Lakes. </p>
<h2>What the rest of the basin can learn from this</h2>
<p>Fish ladders and environmental water have been successful in supporting fish migration at the Murray Barrages, yet across the Murray-Darling Basin, thousands of barriers remain and more are being <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/other/13495/13%20August%202020%20Media%20release%20-%20Announcing%20inquiry%20into%20water%20infrastructure.pdf">considered</a>, particularly in the northern Basin. </p>
<p>These barriers can impede the movements of fish that migrate wholly within freshwater, such as golden perch (<em>Macquaria ambigua</em>) and the <a href="http://www.environment.gov.au/cgi-bin/sprat/public/publicspecies.pl?taxon_id=76155">threatened</a> silver perch (<em>Bidyanus bidyanus</em>). This includes the spawning migrations of adults and downstream dispersal of juveniles. </p>
<p>Mitigating the impacts of existing and new structures on the movement of fish is crucial to <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/MF20248">restoring</a> native fish populations in the Murray-Darling Basin. </p>
<p>To help restore migratory fish throughout the basin, there must be greater understanding of the movement requirements of all fish life stages, the construction of effective fish ladders, and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/emr.12428">river flows</a> must be sufficient to facilitate downstream movement, including of eggs and larval fish. The <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2400.2010.00751.x?casa_token=OJ1lgY9QXJsAAAAA:tUSYvrIb4vdrZY4ahTts3TKhmx3UdmD1NbtD99T0A7aA0l_FZDHo0oWHfjVkCOyj_EsQo37z2x5n0TjeeQ">removal</a> of barriers may also be a feasible option.</p>
<p>In any case, after 15 years of experience in the lower River Murray we’ve learnt protecting migratory fish is best achieved when researchers, the community, water managers and river operators collaborate closely. Such partnerships are the bedrock to establishing a healthier river. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/last-summers-fish-carnage-sparked-public-outrage-heres-what-has-happened-since-132346">Last summer's fish carnage sparked public outrage. Here's what has happened since</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/148433/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brenton Zampatti receives funding from the Australian Government through the Commonwealth Environmental Water Office, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority and the SA Department for Environment and Water for a range of research and monitoring projects.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Bice receives funding from the Australian Government through the Commonwealth Environmental Water Office, the Murray-Darling Basin Authority and the SA Department for Environment and Water for a range of research and monitoring projects.</span></em></p>This year marks a decade since the Millennium Drought ended. The Murray-Darling Basin has endured a lot since, but two species are making an impressive comeback.Brenton Zampatti, Principal Research Scientist, CSIROChris Bice, Research scientist at SARDI, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456132020-09-04T03:03:16Z2020-09-04T03:03:16ZMorrison government plan to scrap water buybacks will hurt taxpayers and the environment<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356463/original/file-20200904-24-7n4oh0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=11%2C0%2C3982%2C2994&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Morrison government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-04/pitt-committs-no-more-buybacks-creates-new-water-compliance-body/12627758">today</a> declared it will axe buybacks of water entitlements from irrigators, placating farmers who say the system has <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/murray-darling-water-woes-strip-another-100-jobs-from-drought-hit-rice-towns-20191126-p53e9k.html">damaged</a> their livelihood and communities. </p>
<p>Instead, Water Minister Keith Pitt says the government will scale up efforts to save water by upgrading infrastructure for farming irrigators in the Murray Darling Basin.</p>
<p>The move will anger environmentalists, who say water buybacks are vital to restoring flows to Australia’s most important river system. It also contradicts <a href="https://theconversation.com/recovering-water-for-the-environment-in-the-murray-darling-farm-upgrades-increase-water-prices-more-than-buybacks-145289">findings</a> from the government’s own experts this week who said farm upgrades increase water prices more than buyback water recovery.</p>
<p>The government has chosen a route not backed by evidence, and which will deliver a bad deal to taxpayers and the environment.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A farmer stands in the dry river bed of the Darling River" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356465/original/file-20200904-20-s3srfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356465/original/file-20200904-20-s3srfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356465/original/file-20200904-20-s3srfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356465/original/file-20200904-20-s3srfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356465/original/file-20200904-20-s3srfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356465/original/file-20200904-20-s3srfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356465/original/file-20200904-20-s3srfp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The government will no longer buy water from farmers for the environment.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A brief history of water buybacks</h2>
<p>Farmers along the Murray Darling are entitled to a certain amount of river water which they can use or sell. In 2008, the federal Labor government began buying some of these entitlements in an open-tender process known as “buybacks”. The purchased water was returned to the parched river system to boost the environment.</p>
<p>In 2012, the Murray Darling Basin Plan was struck. It stipulated that 2,750 billion litres of water would be bought back from irrigators and delivered to the environment every year. The buyback system was <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-06-02/windsor-report-slams-murray-darling-authority/2742822">not universally supported</a> – critics claim buybacks increase water prices, and hurt farmers by reducing the water available for irrigation.</p>
<p>The Coalition government came to office in 2013 and adopted a “strategic” approach to water buybacks. These purchases were made behind closed doors with chosen irrigators. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/recovering-water-for-the-environment-in-the-murray-darling-farm-upgrades-increase-water-prices-more-than-buybacks-145289">Recovering water for the environment in the Murray-Darling: farm upgrades increase water prices more than buybacks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In <a href="https://www.anao.gov.au/work/performance-audit/procurement-strategic-water-entitlements">a review</a> of these buybacks released last month, the Australian National Audit Office found many of these taxpayer-funded deals were not good value for money.</p>
<p>The federal government ordered the review after <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/P959%20A%20little%20more%20valuation%20%255bWeb%255d.pdf">controversy</a> involving the 2017 purchase of water from two Queensland properties owned by Eastern Australia Agriculture. </p>
<p>The government paid A$80 million for the entitlements – an amount <a href="https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/6898970/government-paid-almost-double-for-watergate-buyback/?cs=14480">critics said</a> was well over market value. The deal was also contentious because government frontbencher Angus Taylor was, before the purchase, a non-financial director of the company. The company also had links to the Cayman Islands tax haven.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Keith Pitt speaks in Parliament as Prime Minister Scott Morrison watches on" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356468/original/file-20200904-20-1b3l01g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356468/original/file-20200904-20-1b3l01g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356468/original/file-20200904-20-1b3l01g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356468/original/file-20200904-20-1b3l01g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356468/original/file-20200904-20-1b3l01g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356468/original/file-20200904-20-1b3l01g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356468/original/file-20200904-20-1b3l01g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Water Minister Keith Pitt, pictured during Question Time, is the minister responsible for the new approach.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mick Tsikas/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Infrastructure subsidies: a flawed approach</h2>
<p>The Coalition government is taking a different approach to recover water for the environment: subsidising water infrastructure on farms and elsewhere. This infrastructure <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/cash-splash/11289412">includes</a> lining ponds and possibly levees to trap and store water.</p>
<p>The subsidies have cost many billions of dollars yet recover water at a very much higher cost than <a href="https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/stop-wasteful-water-infrastructure-subsidies-for-mdb-%E2%80%93-study">reverse tenders</a>. This approach also reduces the water that returns to streams and groundwater.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-its-time-to-talk-about-our-water-emergency-139024">Australia, it's time to talk about our water emergency</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The justification for water infrastructure subsidies is that they are supposedly less damaging to irrigation communities. But the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) concluded in <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/economic-effects-of-water-recovery-in-murray-darling-basin">a report</a> published this week that on-farm water infrastructure subsidies, while beneficial for their participants, “push water prices higher, placing pressure on the wider irrigation sector”. This is the very sector the subsidies purport to help.</p>
<p>So why would the government expand the use of water infrastructure when it costs more and isn’t good value for money? The answer may lie in this finding from the ABARES report:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Irrigators who hold large volumes of entitlement relative to their water use (and are frequently net sellers of water allocations) may benefit from higher water prices, as this increases the value of their entitlements. </p>
<p>Farmers with limited entitlement holdings however may be adversely affected, as higher water prices increase their costs and lowers their profitability.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In other words, the “big end of town” benefits – at taxpayers’ expense – while the small-scale irrigators lose out.</p>
<h2>Missing water</h2>
<p>Adding insult to injury, the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists released a <a href="https://wentworthgroup.org/2020/09/mdb-flows-2020/2020/">detailed report</a> this week showing the basin plan is failing to deliver the water expected, even after accounting for dry weather. Some two trillion litres of water is not in the rivers and streams of the basin and appears to have been consumed – a volume that could be more than <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-03/the-mystery-of-the-murray-darlings-vanishing-flows/12612166?nw=0">four times</a> the water in Sydney Harbour.</p>
<p>The Wentworth Group says stream flows may be less than expected because environmental water recovery has been undermined by “water-saving” infrastructure, which reduces the amount of water that would otherwise return to rivers and groundwater. </p>
<p>This infrastructure, on which taxpayers have spent over A$4 billion, has not had the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092134492030077X">desired effect</a>. Research has found those who receive infrastructure subsidies increased water extractions by more than those who did not receive subsidies. That’s because farmers who were using water more efficiently often planted thirstier crops.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Dusk at Menindee Lakes in the Murray Darling Basin" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356467/original/file-20200904-24-1orkxk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/356467/original/file-20200904-24-1orkxk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356467/original/file-20200904-24-1orkxk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356467/original/file-20200904-24-1orkxk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356467/original/file-20200904-24-1orkxk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356467/original/file-20200904-24-1orkxk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/356467/original/file-20200904-24-1orkxk5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The government took a strategic approach to water buybacks in the Murray Darling Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>We deserve better</h2>
<p>It’s clear taxpayer dollars are much better spent buying back water entitlements, through open tenders, rather than subsidising water infrastructure. We can, and must, do <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1467-8489.12288">much better</a> with water policy. </p>
<p>Today, the federal government has doubled down on wasteful spending at taxpayer expense – in a time of a COVID-induced recession. </p>
<p>So what is on offer from the Morrison government? Continuing to ignore its own experts’ advice and delivering yet more ineffective subsidies for water infrastructure. Our rivers, our communities, and all Australians deserve much better.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-towns-run-dry-cotton-extracts-5-sydney-harbours-worth-of-murray-darling-water-a-year-its-time-to-reset-the-balance-133342">While towns run dry, cotton extracts 5 Sydney Harbours' worth of Murray Darling water a year. It's time to reset the balance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Quentin Grafton received funding from the MDBA in 2010. </span></em></p>The government has chosen a route not backed by evidence, and which will deliver a bad deal to taxpayers and the environment.Quentin Grafton, Director of the Centre for Water Economics, Environment and Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1452892020-08-31T20:01:13Z2020-08-31T20:01:13ZRecovering water for the environment in the Murray-Darling: farm upgrades increase water prices more than buybacks<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355465/original/file-20200831-17-1px0nes.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C329%2C4000%2C1940&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Murray Darling Junction, Wentworth NSW.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Hypervision Creative/Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>It’s been 13 years since the Australian Government set out to develop the <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/basin-plan/plan-murray-darling-basin">Murray-Darling Basin Plan</a> with the goal of finding a more sustainable balance between irrigation and the environment.</p>
<p>Like much of the history of water sharing in the Murray-Darling over the last 150 years, the process has been far from smooth. However, significant progress has been achieved, with about 20% of water rights recovered from agricultural users and redirected towards environmental flows.</p>
<p>One of the most difficult debates has been over how the water should be recovered. </p>
<p>Initially most occurred via “buybacks” of water rights from farmers. While relatively fast and inexpensive, opposition to buybacks emerged due to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-06-02/windsor-report-slams-murray-darling-authority/2742822">concerns</a> about their effects on water prices and irrigation farmers and regional communities. </p>
<p>This led to a new emphasis on infrastructure programs including farm upgrades in which farmers received funding to improve their irrigation systems in return for surrendering water rights.</p>
<p>While these farm upgrades are more expensive, it was thought that they would have fewer negative effects on farmers and communities. </p>
<p>However, new research from the <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/economic-effects-of-water-recovery-in-Murray-Darling-Basin">Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences</a> finds that – while beneficial for their participants – these programs push water prices higher, placing pressure on the wider irrigation sector.</p>
<h2>Two types of water recovery programs</h2>
<p>The Murray-Darling Basin operates under a “cap and trade” system. Each year there is a limit on how much water can be extracted from the basin’s rivers, based on the available supply. </p>
<p>Water users (mostly farmers) hold rights to a share of this limit, and they can trade these rights on a market.</p>
<p>To date 1,230 gigalitres of these water rights have been bought from farmers via buyback programs at a cost of about A$2.6 billion. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-are-driving-high-water-prices-in-the-murray-darling-basin-119993">Drought and climate change are driving high water prices in the Murray-Darling Basin</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The other type of program is farm upgrades which offer farmers funding to improve their irrigation infrastructure in return for a portion of their water rights. </p>
<p>To date 255 gigalitres of water has been recovered through farm upgrades at a cost of about $1 billion. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Annual volume of water rights recovered for the environment since 2007-08</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355477/original/file-20200831-14-1ic8o79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355477/original/file-20200831-14-1ic8o79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355477/original/file-20200831-14-1ic8o79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355477/original/file-20200831-14-1ic8o79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355477/original/file-20200831-14-1ic8o79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=168&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355477/original/file-20200831-14-1ic8o79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=211&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355477/original/file-20200831-14-1ic8o79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=211&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355477/original/file-20200831-14-1ic8o79.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=211&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">For infrastructure projects the financial year refers to the contract date. The actual transfer of entitlements may occur in a later financial year. The volume of water recovered is expressed in terms of the long-term average annual yield. The estimates do not include water recovered through state projects (160 gigalitres) or water gifted to the Commonwealth (15 gigalitres). Off-farm infrastructure includes water recovered through projects that are a combination of on-farm, off-farm and land purchases.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/economic-effects-of-water-recovery-in-Murray-Darling-Basin">Sources: Department of Agriculture Water and Environment, Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>Water recovery has increased prices</h2>
<p>As would be expected, the dominant short-term driver of prices is water availability, with large price increases during droughts. The dominant longer-term drivers include lower average rainfall related to <a href="https://theconversation.com/drought-and-climate-change-are-driving-high-water-prices-in-the-murray-darling-basin-119993">climate change</a> and the emergence of new irrigation crops including almonds.</p>
<p>While water recovery has played less of a role, buybacks and farm upgrades have still reduced the supply of water to farmers and increased prices to some extent. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-since-2000-has-cut-farm-profits-22-128860">Climate change since 2000 has cut farm profits 22%</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/economic-effects-of-water-recovery-in-Murray-Darling-Basin">modelling</a> suggests water prices in the southern basin are around $72 per megalitre higher on average as a result of water recovery measures, with the effects varying year-to-year depending on conditions.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Modelled water allocation prices with and without water recovery</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355521/original/file-20200831-20-1yj4i1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355521/original/file-20200831-20-1yj4i1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355521/original/file-20200831-20-1yj4i1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355521/original/file-20200831-20-1yj4i1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355521/original/file-20200831-20-1yj4i1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355521/original/file-20200831-20-1yj4i1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355521/original/file-20200831-20-1yj4i1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355521/original/file-20200831-20-1yj4i1b.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=449&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Price refers to volume weighted average annual water allocation prices across the southern Murray Darling Basin. Water recovery reflects the cumulative volume of buybacks and farm upgrades at each year. Water recovery began in 2007-08.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/economic-effects-of-water-recovery-in-Murray-Darling-Basin">ABARES modelling</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>Farm upgrades increase prices more than buybacks</h2>
<p>Farm upgrades are often viewed as an opportunity to save water and produce “more crop per drop”. </p>
<p>But they can also encourage farmers to increase their water use as they seek to make the most of their new infrastructure: sometimes referred to as a “rebound effect”. </p>
<p>While there have been concerns about rebound effects for some time, there has been limited evidence until recently.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355489/original/file-20200831-18-1y91g9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355489/original/file-20200831-18-1y91g9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/355489/original/file-20200831-18-1y91g9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355489/original/file-20200831-18-1y91g9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355489/original/file-20200831-18-1y91g9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=971&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355489/original/file-20200831-18-1y91g9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1220&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355489/original/file-20200831-18-1y91g9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1220&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/355489/original/file-20200831-18-1y91g9k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1220&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Less-wasteful irrigation can save water, as long as there’s no ‘rebound’</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>As would be expected, <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/insights/economic-effects-of-water-recovery-in-Murray-Darling-Basin">our study</a> finds that upgraded farms have benefited in terms of profits and productivity. However, we also find large rebound effects, with upgraded farms increasing their water use by between 10% and 50%.</p>
<p>To get the extra water they need to buy it from other farmers, putting pressure on prices. We find the resulting price impact to be much more than the impact of buying back water. Per unit of water recovered, it is about double that of buybacks.</p>
<p>These higher water prices increase the risk that irrigation assets – including some newly upgraded systems – could become stranded as price sensitive irrigation activities become less profitable.</p>
<h2>No easy answers</h2>
<p>Recovering water through off-farm infrastructure is one alternative, however the most effective projects have already been developed, leaving cost-effective water saving schemes harder to find.</p>
<p>This brings us back to buybacks. Because buybacks are cheaper than farm infrastructure programs, there is more scope to combine them with regional development investments to help offset negative impacts on communities. </p>
<p>The challenge is that in a connected water market the flow-on effects on water prices and farmers can be complex and difficult to predict, making it hard to know where to direct development investments.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/billions-spent-on-murray-darling-water-infrastructure-heres-the-result-119985">Billions spent on Murray-Darling water infrastructure: here's the result</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A potential middle ground is rationalisation, where parts of the water supply network are decommissioned, and affected farmers are compensated both for their water rights and for being disconnected from water supply. This approach has less effect on water prices and allows regional development initiatives to be targeted to the affected areas. </p>
<p>However, rationalisation can be hard to implement given it requires negotiating with all affected farmers and all levels of government.</p>
<p>Given the complexity of the Murray-Darling Basin, water policy is far from simple. While it is clear more water will be needed to put the basin on a sustainable footing, there are no easy options. </p>
<p>Further progress will require careful policy design to help ease adjustment pressure on farmers and regional communities.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145289/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Marking farms more water-efficient pushes up prices twice as much as buying water back.Neal Hughes, Senior Economist, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)David Galeano, Assistant Secretary, Natural Resources, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)Steve Hatfield-Dodds, Executive Director, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1449492020-08-26T20:08:39Z2020-08-26T20:08:39ZNeed a mood lift? We’ve tracked 4 ways Australia’s environment has repaired itself in 2020<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354617/original/file-20200825-16-1u5wvp7.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C0%2C5702%2C3567&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>When the clock ticked over to 2020, Australia was in the grip of a brutal drought and unprecedented bushfires. But in the months since, while many of us were indoors avoiding the pandemic, nature has started its slow recovery. That is the message of our <a href="http://www.ausenv.online">new analysis released today</a>.</p>
<p>Every year, my colleagues and I collate a vast number of measurements made by satellites, field sensors and people. We process the data and combine them into a consistent picture of the state of our environment.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-scorecard-gives-the-health-of-australias-environment-less-than-1-out-of-10-133444">2019 report</a> documented a disaster year of record heat, drought, and bushfires. We repeated the analysis after the first half of 2020, keen to see how our environment was recovering.</p>
<p>It’s not all good news. But encouragingly, our results show most of the country has started to bounce back from drought and fire. Here are four ways that’s happening.</p>
<h2>1. Rain</h2>
<p>Whether a region is in drought depends on the measure used: rainfall, river flows, reservoir storage, soil water availability or cropping conditions. On top of that, Australia is a vast country with large differences between regions. </p>
<p>By most measures, and for most of the country, wetter weather in 2020 helped ease drought conditions – although <a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-its-been-raining-a-lot-but-that-doesnt-mean-australias-drought-has-broken-144702">with caveats and notable exceptions</a>.</p>
<p>Halfway through January, rain-blocking conditions in the Indian Ocean finally relented. This allowed the long-awaited monsoon to reach northern Australia, and encouraged more rainfall across the rest of the continent. February and March brought much needed rains in southeast Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A young girl checks a rain gauge" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354618/original/file-20200825-23-zcyjs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354618/original/file-20200825-23-zcyjs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354618/original/file-20200825-23-zcyjs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354618/original/file-20200825-23-zcyjs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354618/original/file-20200825-23-zcyjs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354618/original/file-20200825-23-zcyjs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354618/original/file-20200825-23-zcyjs7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A young girl checks a rain gauge as her mum watches on at the family farm in February this year. Recent rainfall has eased drought conditions in parts of Australia.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Peter Lorimer/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>2. Water availability</h2>
<p>Across the continent, the volume of water flowing into rivers in the first half of 2020 was almost four times greater than the previous year – although still below average. Good rains fell in the northern Murray-Darling Basin. Some made it into the town and irrigation water supplies that ran empty during the drought, and storage levels showed a modest improvement by the end of June to 17% of capacity. </p>
<p>The flows were also enough to fill wetlands such as Narran Lakes and the Paroo and Bulloo River wetlands, west of Bourke. There were enough flood waters left to send a modest flood pulse down the Darling River in March for the first time since 2016.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354551/original/file-20200825-18-6fc912.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354551/original/file-20200825-18-6fc912.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354551/original/file-20200825-18-6fc912.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354551/original/file-20200825-18-6fc912.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354551/original/file-20200825-18-6fc912.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=250&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354551/original/file-20200825-18-6fc912.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354551/original/file-20200825-18-6fc912.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354551/original/file-20200825-18-6fc912.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=314&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Maximum measured daily flow in the Darling River at Wilcannia (left) and the maximum extent of wetland inundation in the 12 months up to June 2020, compared to the period 2000–2019.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Reservoir water storage across the entire the Murray-Darling Basin improved from 36% of capacity at the end of June 2019 to 44% a year later. Even so, by June 2020 dry conditions still persisted in the tributaries and wetlands of the middle and southern Murray-Darling Basin.</p>
<p>Storage in urban water supply systems increased for Sydney (52% to 81%) and Melbourne (50% to 64%) while remaining stable for Brisbane (66%), Canberra (55%) and Perth (41%).</p>
<p>Meanwhile, lake and wetland extent across much of Western Australia remained at record or near-record low levels. Due to the poor northern monsoon, Lake Argyle – the massive dam lake supplying the Ord irrigation scheme in northern Australia – shrank to 38% of capacity, a level not seen for several decades. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-report-gives-australia-an-a-for-coronavirus-response-but-a-d-on-climate-141982">Global report gives Australia an A for coronavirus response but a D on climate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>3. Soil moisture</h2>
<p>Soil moisture acts like a bank account: rainfall makes deposits and plant roots make withdrawals. This makes soil moisture a useful measure of drought condition. </p>
<p>Average soil water availability across the country was far below average at the start of 2020, but returned closer to average conditions from March 2020 onwards. Very to extremely low soil water availability across most of northwest and southeast Australia had eased by June 2020.</p>
<p>By the end of June, rains had also improved growing conditions in southeast Queensland, western New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. However, recovery in these regions is, literally, shallow. Soil water remains low in the deeper soil layers and groundwater from which trees and other drought-tolerant vegetation draw their water. Drought conditions also persist in the dry inland of Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354552/original/file-20200825-19-kyehpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354552/original/file-20200825-19-kyehpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354552/original/file-20200825-19-kyehpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354552/original/file-20200825-19-kyehpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354552/original/file-20200825-19-kyehpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=291&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354552/original/file-20200825-19-kyehpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354552/original/file-20200825-19-kyehpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354552/original/file-20200825-19-kyehpo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Average soil water availability and vegetation condition by local government area at the end of June 2020 in comparison to 2000−2019 conditions.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>4. Vegetation growth</h2>
<p>Vegetation condition is measured by estimating leaf area from satellite observations. National leaf area reached its lowest value in December 2019 due to drought and bushfires, but improved once the rains returned from February onwards. It’s remained very close to average since.</p>
<p>Autumn rains also brought the best growth conditions in many years across much of the eastern wheat and sheep belt. But in the Western Australian wheat belt, which did not see much rain, cropping conditions are average or below average. </p>
<p>We separately measured vegetation recovery across areas in southeast Australia burnt at different times during the 2019-20 fire season.</p>
<p>In the central and northern NSW regions which burnt earlier in the fire season and received plentiful rains, recovery was relatively swift – more than 63% of lost leaf area had returned by June 2020. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354553/original/file-20200825-17-2h9j3s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354553/original/file-20200825-17-2h9j3s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354553/original/file-20200825-17-2h9j3s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354553/original/file-20200825-17-2h9j3s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354553/original/file-20200825-17-2h9j3s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=259&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354553/original/file-20200825-17-2h9j3s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354553/original/file-20200825-17-2h9j3s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354553/original/file-20200825-17-2h9j3s.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=326&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Recovery of vegetation leaf area in areas burnt in Sept/Oct and Nov/Dec 2019 and in Jan/Feb 2020, respectively.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But in the areas burnt in early 2020, recovery has been slow. The burnt forests in the far south of NSW and East Gippsland did not receive good rains until very recently. Also, much of areas burnt in early 2020 are found in the mountains of the NSW-Victoria border region, where cool autumn and winter temperatures have paused plant growth until spring.</p>
<p>Leaf area recovery is not a good measure of biodiversity. Much of the increase will have been due to rapid leaf flush from fire tolerant trees and undergrowth, including weeds. Some damage to ecosystems and sensitive species will take many years to recover, while some species <a href="https://theconversation.com/click-through-the-tragic-stories-of-119-species-still-struggling-after-black-summer-in-this-interactive-and-how-to-help-131025">may well be lost forever</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Blackened tree trunks and shoots of green" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354557/original/file-20200825-23-xqimwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/354557/original/file-20200825-23-xqimwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354557/original/file-20200825-23-xqimwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354557/original/file-20200825-23-xqimwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354557/original/file-20200825-23-xqimwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354557/original/file-20200825-23-xqimwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/354557/original/file-20200825-23-xqimwv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s environment is bouncing back from a horrendous 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Marta Yebra/ANU</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Climate change: the biggest threat</h2>
<p>Rainfall after June has been average to good across much of Australia, and La Niña conditions are predicted to bring further rain. So there is reason to hope our environment will get a chance to recover further from a horrendous 2019. </p>
<p>In the long term, climate change remains the greatest risk to our agriculture and ecosystems. Ever-increasing summer temperatures kill people, livestock and wildlife, dry out soil and vegetation, and increase fire risk. In 2020, high temperatures also caused the third mass coral bleaching event in the Great Barrier Reef in five years. </p>
<p>Decisive climate action is needed, in Australia and worldwide, if we’re to protect ourselves and our ecosystems from long-term decline.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/yes-its-been-raining-a-lot-but-that-doesnt-mean-australias-drought-has-broken-144702">Yes, it's been raining a lot – but that doesn't mean Australia's drought has broken</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/144949/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The Australia's Environment report is funded by ANU and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN). Albert Van Dijk receives or has previously received funding from several government-funded agencies, grant schemes and programmes.</span></em></p>Researchers have collated measurements made by satellites, field sensors and people, to get a picture of the nature’s recovery while we’ve been in lockdown.Albert Van Dijk, Professor, Water and Landscape Dynamics, Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1417432020-07-24T02:03:21Z2020-07-24T02:03:21ZAustralia has an ugly legacy of denying water rights to Aboriginal people. Not much has changed<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349041/original/file-20200723-32-1ml9k9b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4961%2C3304&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Water management in the Murray-Darling Basin has radically changed over the past 30 years. But none of the changes have addressed a glaring injustice: Aboriginal people’s share of water rights is minute, and in New South Wales it is diminishing.</p>
<p>In the 1990s, governments tried to restore the health of rivers in the basin by <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/archived/cap/SETTING_THE_CAP.pdf">limiting</a> how much water could be extracted. They also separated land and water titles to enable farmers to trade water. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/aboriginal-voices-are-missing-from-the-murray-darling-basin-crisis-110769">Aboriginal voices are missing from the Murray-Darling Basin crisis</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>This allowed the recovery of water for the environment and led to the world’s biggest water market, now worth <a href="https://daff.ent.sirsidynix.net.au/client/en_AU/search/asset/1027121/2">billions of dollars</a>. For a range of reasons, Aboriginal people have largely been shut out of this valuable water market.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837719319799">Our research</a>, the first of its kind, shows Aboriginal water entitlements in the Murray-Darling Basin are declining, and further losses are likely under current policies. This water injustice is an ongoing legacy of colonisation.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349060/original/file-20200723-22-imvure.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A shallow river cuts through brown land, beside a gum tree." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349060/original/file-20200723-22-imvure.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/349060/original/file-20200723-22-imvure.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349060/original/file-20200723-22-imvure.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349060/original/file-20200723-22-imvure.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349060/original/file-20200723-22-imvure.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349060/original/file-20200723-22-imvure.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/349060/original/file-20200723-22-imvure.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Aboriginal people have largely been shut out of the market.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>An unjust distribution of water</h2>
<p>A water use right, also called a licence or entitlement, grants its holder a share of available water in a particular waterway. Governments allocate water against these entitlements periodically, <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/attachments/basin-plan-rollout/1113_planning-assumptions_allocation-vs-usage.jpg">depending on rainfall and water storage</a>. Entitlement holders choose how to use this water. Typically, they extract it for purposes such as irrigation, or sell it on the temporary market.</p>
<p>We mapped Aboriginal water access and rights in NSW over more than 200 years, including the current scale of Aboriginal-held water entitlements.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/water-in-northern-australia-a-history-of-aboriginal-exclusion-60929">Water in northern Australia: a history of Aboriginal exclusion</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Across ten catchments in the NSW portion of the Murray-Darling Basin, Aboriginal people collectively hold just 12.1 gigalitres of water. This is a mere 0.2% of all available surface water (as of October 2018).</p>
<p>By comparison, Aboriginal people make up 9.3% of this area’s population. </p>
<p>The value of water held by Aboriginal organisations was A$16.5 million in 2015-16 terms, equating to just 0.1% of the value of the Murray-Darling Basin’s water market.</p>
<p>We wanted to understand how these limited water rights affect Aboriginal people today, and the challenges, if any, they face in holding onto these entitlements. This required examining Australia’s water history and its systems of water rights distribution.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-water-no-leadership-new-murray-darling-basin-report-reveals-states-climate-gamble-136514">No water, no leadership: new Murray Darling Basin report reveals states' climate gamble</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>What we found were key moments when governments denied Aboriginal people water rights and, by extension, the benefits that now flow from water access. This includes the ability to use water for an agricultural enterprise, or to temporarily trade water as many other entitlement holders do. We describe these moments as waves of dispossession.</p>
<h2>The first wave of dispossession</h2>
<p>Under colonial water law, rights to use water, for example for farming, were granted to whoever owned the land where rivers flowed. This link between water use and land-holding remained in place <a href="https://theconversation.com/water-in-northern-australia-a-history-of-aboriginal-exclusion-60929">until the end of the 20th century</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, Aboriginal people, whose traditional ownership of land (native title) was only recognised by the Australian High Court in 1992, were largely denied legal rights to water.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346519/original/file-20200709-50-160bopt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/346519/original/file-20200709-50-160bopt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346519/original/file-20200709-50-160bopt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346519/original/file-20200709-50-160bopt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=386&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346519/original/file-20200709-50-160bopt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346519/original/file-20200709-50-160bopt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/346519/original/file-20200709-50-160bopt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=485&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Water entitlements held by Aboriginal by catchment in the NSW portion of the MDB (as at October 2018)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The second wave</h2>
<p>During the last quarter of the 20th century, governments introduced land restitution measures, such as the NSW Aboriginal Land Rights Act (1983), to redress or compensate Indigenous peoples for colonial acts of dispossession.</p>
<p>We found water entitlements were attached to some of the land parcels that were transferred to Aboriginal ownership under these processes – but this was the exception.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-government-can-clean-up-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-116265">5 ways the government can clean up the Murray-Darling Basin Plan</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Land restitution processes intentionally restricted what land Aboriginal people could claim. They were biased against properties with agricultural potential and, therefore, very few of the properties that were returned to Aboriginal ownership came with water entitlements. </p>
<p>At this crucial juncture in land rights reform, federal and state governments entrenched the inequity of water rights distribution by increasing the security of the water rights of those who historically held entitlements. Governments have yet to pay serious attention to the claims of Aboriginal people who see <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/sites/default/files/sitecollectiondocuments/water/72-northern-basin-aboriginal-nations.pdf">a clear connection</a> between the past and the present in the distribution of water entitlements.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9276/7/1/16">native title framework</a> has not helped the situation either. Native title is the recognition that Indigenous peoples have rights to land and water according to their own laws and customs. </p>
<p>But it’s difficult for those making a native title claim to get substantial interests in land and waters. The Native Title Act 1993 defined native title to include rights to water for customary purposes and courts are yet to recognise a commercial right to water.</p>
<h2>The third wave</h2>
<p>We also identified a third wave of dispossession, now underway. From 2009 to 2018, the water rights held by Aboriginal people in the NSW portion of the Murray-Darling Basin shrunk by at least 17.2% (2.0 gigalitres of water per year). No new entitlements were acquired during this decade. </p>
<p>The decline is attributable to several factors, the most significant being forced permanent water (and land) sales arising from the liquidation of Aboriginal enterprises. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-inland-rivers-are-the-pulse-of-the-outback-by-2070-theyll-be-unrecognisable-136492">Australia’s inland rivers are the pulse of the outback. By 2070, they’ll be unrecognisable</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>With water rights held by Aboriginal people vulnerable to further decline, the options for Aboriginal communities to enjoy the wide-ranging benefits of water access may further diminish.</p>
<p>We expect rates of Aboriginal water ownership to be even smaller in other parts of the Murray-Darling Basin (and in jurisdictions beyond the Basin). Research is underway to explore this.</p>
<h2>Australia urgently needs a fair national water policy</h2>
<p>The Productivity Commission is now <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/current/water-reform-2020#issues">reviewing</a> Australian water policy, and must urgently address the injustices faced by Aboriginal people. </p>
<p>In developing a just water policy, governments must <a href="https://theconversation.com/aboriginal-voices-are-missing-from-the-murray-darling-basin-crisis-110769">work with First Nations</a> towards the twin goals of redressing historical inequities in water access <em>and</em> stemming further loss of water rights. Treaty negotiations may offer another avenue for water reform.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-towns-run-dry-cotton-extracts-5-sydney-harbours-worth-of-murray-darling-water-a-year-its-time-to-reset-the-balance-133342">While towns run dry, cotton extracts 5 Sydney Harbours' worth of Murray Darling water a year. It's time to reset the balance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Over recent decades, Australia has been coming to terms with its colonial history of land management, returning more than a third of the continent to some form of Indigenous control under a “land titling revolution”.</p>
<p>But a water titling revolution that reconnects water law and policy to the social justice agenda of land restitution is long overdue. Indigenous peoples must have the opportunity to care for their land and waters holistically, and share more equitably in the benefits of water use.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/141743/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lana Hartwig has served as a consultant to Murray Lower Darling Rivers Indigenous Nations (MLDRIN) and the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (MDBA). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sue Jackson receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a member of the Murray Darling Basin Authority's Advisory Committee on Social, Economic and Environmental Sciences. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natalie Osborne does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Across the NSW portion of the Murray-Darling Basin, Aboriginal people make up almost 10% of the population. Yet they hold a mere 0.2% of all available surface water.Lana D. Hartwig, Research Fellow, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith UniversityNatalie Osborne, Lecturer, School of Environment and Science, Griffith UniversitySue Jackson, Professor, ARC Future Fellow, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1406332020-06-21T20:07:18Z2020-06-21T20:07:18ZWhy China believed it had a case to hit Australian barley with tariffs<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342356/original/file-20200617-94060-j9xewa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=35%2C239%2C3958%2C2119&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>China’s landmark investigations into <a href="https://theconversation.com/barley-is-not-a-random-choice-heres-the-real-reason-china-is-taking-on-australia-over-dumping-107271">Australian barley</a> led to the imposition of “anti-dumping” and “anti-subsidy” tariffs of <a href="https://www.afr.com/companies/agriculture/china-pulls-the-trigger-on-australian-barley-tariffs-20200518-p54u5w">80.5%</a> in May, threatening an Australian export market worth $A600 million a year.</p>
<p>China says it made its own calculations on the extent to which Australia subsidised barley after Australian authorities failed to give it all the information it needed in the form it requested.</p>
<p>It set out its findings on subsidies in a report at present only <a href="http://images.mofcom.gov.cn/trb/202005/20200518201515833.pdf">available in Chinese</a>.</p>
<p>One was that Australian officials “did not comply” with its requirements in relation to the Sustainable Rural Water Use and Infrastructure Program. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342034/original/file-20200616-23276-19loqir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342034/original/file-20200616-23276-19loqir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342034/original/file-20200616-23276-19loqir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342034/original/file-20200616-23276-19loqir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342034/original/file-20200616-23276-19loqir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=708&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342034/original/file-20200616-23276-19loqir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=890&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342034/original/file-20200616-23276-19loqir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=890&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342034/original/file-20200616-23276-19loqir.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=890&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://images.mofcom.gov.cn/trb/202005/20200518201515833.pdf">'The Australian government reported the overall situation in the answer sheet, but did not comply with the requirements of the investigating authority'</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australia disputes that conclusion.</p>
<p>At first glance the possibility that Sustainable Rural Water Use and Infrastructure Program could have had anything to do with subsidising barely exports seems baseless. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/basin-plan/plan-murray-darling-basin">Murray Darling Basin Plan</a>, of which the Sustainable Rural Water Use and Infrastructure Program is a part, is a long-running program aiming to remedy a century of over-exploitation of water. </p>
<p>It includes no discussion of production targets, export volumes or anything else that might be expected to set off trade alarm bells.</p>
<h2>Plan more than environmental</h2>
<p>But the plan and its A$13 billion budget is about more than the environment. </p>
<p>It originally prioritised the environment, but in 2010 its goal was <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/murray-darling-basin-boss-mike-taylor-resigns/news-story/14d3b3075e9d4b8f3a5d6b5194f4e933">explicitly changed</a> to address a <a href="http://www5.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/wa200783/s3.html">triple bottom line</a> of economic, social and environmental concerns.</p>
<p>From there, its management became a major economic and political issue.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/while-towns-run-dry-cotton-extracts-5-sydney-harbours-worth-of-murray-darling-water-a-year-its-time-to-reset-the-balance-133342">While towns run dry, cotton extracts 5 Sydney Harbours' worth of Murray Darling water a year. It's time to reset the balance</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Scandals surround <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/barnaby-joyce-s-department-paid-tens-of-millions-too-much-for-water-20180321-p4z5dd.html">huge payments</a> for dubious water rights, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13241583.2019.1579965">infrastructure spending</a> that doesn’t actually save water, and massive subsidisation of <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/content/dam-shame-new-dams-politicians-won-t-talk-about">irrigation expansion</a> into areas that were not previously irrigated. </p>
<p>Stories abound of favoured <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/26/78m-spent-on-darling-water-buyback-nearly-double-its-valuation">companies</a> or <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/P699%20Submission%20to%20review%20of%20Barwon-Darling%20Water%20Sharing%20Plan%20%5BWEB%5D.pdf">regions</a> reaping large windfalls at the expense of taxpayers, other farmers, the environment, or all three.</p>
<h2>Administered with ‘habitual’ secrecy</h2>
<p>Australia’s Department of Agriculture says the government fully engaged with China’s investigation, “including providing extensive information on production and commercial information on the Australian barley industry”.</p>
<p>But the department hasn’t always been forthcoming about its operations.</p>
<p>A South Australian <a href="https://www.farmonline.com.au/story/5890475/call-for-basin-plan-pause-to-address-royal-commission-findings/">Royal Commission</a> concluded that its claim to be committed to engaging in public debate and open dialogue should be regarded with “deep suspicion”.</p>
<p>The separate Murray Darling Basin Authority operated with “<a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/files/sharedassets/public/river_murray/basin_plan/murray-darling-basin-royal-commission-report.pdf">an unfathomable predilection for secrecy</a>”. </p>
<p>The behaviour was “<a href="https://www.environment.sa.gov.au/files/sharedassets/public/river_murray/basin_plan/murray-darling-basin-royal-commission-report.pdf">habitual</a>”, in the assessment of the Royal Commission.</p>
<h2>We might have given China a case</h2>
<p>Even if Australian officials did participate in the Chinese investigation in good faith, the potential for confusion is considerable given the jargon that engulfs both water management and trade law. </p>
<p>Few water managers speak trade law and equally few trade lawyers understand the jargon of the Murray Darling Basin Plan.</p>
<p>From a trade law perspective, although the Sustainable Rural Water Use and Infrastructure Program and the Basin Plan do not explicitly subsidise exports, the fact that much of the Basin’s produce is exported means it could be argued that they distort trade.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-murray-darling-basin-scandal-economists-have-seen-it-coming-for-decades-119989">The Murray-Darling Basin scandal: economists have seen it coming for decades</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>It is open to a country such as China to take action if the program has conferred benefits to an Australian industry and the subsidised exports have caused a material injury to a competing domestic industry. </p>
<p>China alleges this is the case for barley, but a stronger case could perhaps be argued for the Basin’s bigger export crops: <a href="https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/surveys/irrigation/cotton">cotton</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/26/tough-nut-to-crack-the-almond-boom-and-its-drain-on-the-murray-darling">almonds</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-08/taxpayers-helping-fund-murray-darling-basin-expansion/11279468">walnuts</a>.</p>
<p>Part of the reason is that the program involves government spending, but it is possible to argue that the implementation of the Basin Plan has also subsidised exporters in another way, by environmental mismanagement. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-watergate-heres-what-taxpayers-need-to-know-about-water-buybacks-115838">Australia's 'watergate': here's what taxpayers need to know about water buybacks</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Barwon-Darling has been described by environmental regulators as “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jul/24/barwon-darling-river-system-collapse-review">an ecosystem in crisis</a>”. Contributing to the crisis has been a system that allocates scarce water to irrigators and diverts huge volumes of floodwater into private dams.</p>
<p>This arguably <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/may/29/nsw-water-officials-knew-decades-of-unmeasured-floodplain-harvesting-by-irrigators-was-illegal">illegal</a> practice of “floodplain harvesting” provides huge benefits to cotton exporters. </p>
<p>It is uncertain whether China’s barley decision will bring about changes to Australian water management that downstream communities, irrigators, Indigenous nations and environment groups <a href="https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/MDB%20Open%20Letter%20%5BPRESS%5D_0.pdf">have long called for</a>.</p>
<p>It would help if water regulators explained what they were doing in terms that can be understood by ordinary Australians and Chinese trade experts alike.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Contributing to this article were Maryanne Slattery, a former director at the Murray Darling Basin Authority and a director of water consultancy Slattery Johnson, Rod Campbell, Research Director at <a href="http://www.tai.org.au/">the Australia Institute</a> and Allan Behm, director of the Australia Institute’s International and Security Affairs program.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140633/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Weihuan Zhou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>China believed the Murray Darling Basin Plan was about more than the environment. It wanted to know how much more.Weihuan Zhou, Senior Lecturer and member of Herbert Smith Freehills CIBEL Centre, Faculty of Law, UNSW Sydney, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1403372020-06-19T06:07:25Z2020-06-19T06:07:25ZRestoring a gem in the Murray-Darling Basin: the success story of the Winton Wetlands<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342871/original/file-20200619-41226-1acypyf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C22%2C836%2C517&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lance Lloyd</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Water use in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/murray-darling-basin-6112">Murray-Darling Basin</a> has long been a source of conflict. Damage to rivers and wetlands, including <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-16/dozens-of-murray-cod-dying-every-week-in-darling-river/11420942">fish kills</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/blue-green-algae-restricts-water-use-for-town-in-mildura-region/11804070">algal blooms</a>, has featured prominently in the news.</p>
<p>But the <a href="https://wintonwetlands.org.au/">Winton Wetlands</a>, in the south-east basin, represents a bright spot. Its restoration provides a sense of hope that reaches beyond the complexities of history.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://goo.gl/maps/GAbhJAn1xLohr7g36">wetlands site</a> is about 2.5 hours drive north-east of Melbourne. It’s now a thriving place for plants and wildlife that attracts plenty of visitors – but it wasn’t always like this.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342889/original/file-20200619-41209-106sehh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342889/original/file-20200619-41209-106sehh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342889/original/file-20200619-41209-106sehh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342889/original/file-20200619-41209-106sehh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342889/original/file-20200619-41209-106sehh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342889/original/file-20200619-41209-106sehh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342889/original/file-20200619-41209-106sehh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342889/original/file-20200619-41209-106sehh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A laughing kookaburra keeps watch on the wetlands.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/78247220@N08/30029619782/">Diana Padron/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>From dispossession to decommissioning</h2>
<p>The Yorta Yorta people were the original Aboriginal inhabitants of the area. They lost access to the land and water when European settlers took it for farming in the 1860s.</p>
<p>The farmers and the wetlands were displaced in 1970 when a 7.5 kilometre rock wall was built to form Lake Mokoan. The dam project allowed for local irrigation and created a drought reserve for the River Murray. This was broadly welcomed for the economic and recreational values it promised. </p>
<p>It worked for a while, but the resulting flooding killed around 150,000 iconic river red gums, including many Aboriginal <a href="https://www.creativespirits.info/aboriginalculture/land/aboriginal-scarred-trees">scar trees</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342931/original/file-20200619-70415-1xjmlky.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342931/original/file-20200619-70415-1xjmlky.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342931/original/file-20200619-70415-1xjmlky.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342931/original/file-20200619-70415-1xjmlky.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342931/original/file-20200619-70415-1xjmlky.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342931/original/file-20200619-70415-1xjmlky.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342931/original/file-20200619-70415-1xjmlky.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342931/original/file-20200619-70415-1xjmlky.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">River red gum trees died following inundation after the dam was built.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Max Finlayson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The dam was dried out for downstream supplies in the 1982 drought. Then the 1990s brought massive blue-green algal blooms.</p>
<p>The frequent blooms made it hard to use the water. The Victorian government needed to find water savings for water projects elsewhere and in 2004 decided to remove the dam.</p>
<p>It was a controversial move, opposed by many in the community, including those who lived around the lake, or used the water for recreation or irrigation. But in 2009 a gap was cut through the wall and the water drained.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342647/original/file-20200618-41213-mc4ak6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342647/original/file-20200618-41213-mc4ak6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342647/original/file-20200618-41213-mc4ak6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342647/original/file-20200618-41213-mc4ak6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342647/original/file-20200618-41213-mc4ak6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342647/original/file-20200618-41213-mc4ak6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342647/original/file-20200618-41213-mc4ak6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342647/original/file-20200618-41213-mc4ak6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Local opposition to the decommissioning of the dam.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Max Finlayson</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Restoration of the wetlands</h2>
<p>After the dam was decommissioned, it was clear the site had undergone significant ecological and social change. So the government was keen to establish a world-class wetland with close links to nearby communities.</p>
<p>In 2009 an independent, community-based committee of management was formed to renew the site. </p>
<p>The scale of the renewal is significant, covering 8,750 hectares. It’s the first site outside the US to be classed as a <a href="https://www.sws.org/Resources/sws-wetlands-of-distinction.html">Wetland of Distinction</a> by the Society of Wetland Scientists, a leading global voice for wetland science and management.</p>
<p>Importantly, local Indigenous people are actively involved in the project, which recognises Indigenous cultural heritage sites throughout the wetlands.</p>
<p>This runs alongside efforts to document and share the history of the European settlers. The committee recognises that people in the wetlands have more than once moved from occupation to dispossession. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QwEbJvtHlGo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Winton Wetlands aerial views – December 2011.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ecological renewal is built around specific management actions to establish self-sustaining populations of native fish, waterbirds and other fauna, and aquatic plants. It’s also improving the water quality and reducing the populations of feral animals and weeds.</p>
<p>Native plants returned to the site include the <a href="http://vro.agriculture.vic.gov.au/dpi/vro/vrosite.nsf/0d08cd6930912d1e4a2567d2002579cb/water_sss_river_red_gum">river red gum</a> and <a href="http://vro.agriculture.vic.gov.au/dpi/vro/vrosite.nsf/pages/sip_southern_cane_grass">cane grass</a>.</p>
<p>Native fish are breeding, as is the majestic white-bellied sea eagle. A <a href="https://www.australiangeographic.com.au/topics/wildlife/2019/09/the-rakali-a-native-water-rat-found-feasting-on-cane-toads-in-the-kimberley/">rakali</a> (Australia’s answer to otters) and sugar gliders have been sighted.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-scorecard-gives-the-health-of-australias-environment-less-than-1-out-of-10-133444">A major scorecard gives the health of Australia's environment less than 1 out of 10</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>An advisory panel is guiding the science behind the project. It’s supported by research partnerships with universities and an annual science forum, designed as an information exchange between the committee and the wider community.</p>
<p>A cafe and <a href="https://wintonwetlands.org.au/visit/">visitors hub</a> are now regularly used for events. People visit the wetlands for walks, bike rides, canoeing, stargazing and birdwatching.</p>
<p>There are 60km of roads, nine bush walks, 30km of cycling trails and artworks celebrating the <a href="https://wintonwetlands.org.au/visit/landscape-art/">landscape</a> and its history.</p>
<p>The decommissioning of the dam was not well received by some in the community at first. The restoration project is working hard to <a href="https://youtu.be/iFJkyWOS5rI">repair the connection</a> of people to the site through ecological renewal, art and recreational events.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342888/original/file-20200619-41213-fkghpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342888/original/file-20200619-41213-fkghpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342888/original/file-20200619-41213-fkghpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342888/original/file-20200619-41213-fkghpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342888/original/file-20200619-41213-fkghpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=292&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342888/original/file-20200619-41213-fkghpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342888/original/file-20200619-41213-fkghpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342888/original/file-20200619-41213-fkghpf.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=367&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New trees planted as part of the Winton Wetland revegetation during dry periods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lance Lloyd</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>If you restore it, they will come</h2>
<p>The success of the Winton Wetlands project in involving the community is reflected in increasing visitor numbers to the site. These have grown from 36,264 in 2016-17 to 65,287 in 2018-19.</p>
<p>In addition, the numbers of schoolchildren who visit the site for guided nature excursions has increased from 274 in 2016-17 to 2,013 in 2018-19.</p>
<p>Volunteers are also playing a role with some 4,114 hours of effort in 2018-19 operating the information desk, taking guided walks, organising planting days and other restoration activities. Volunteers support the science work in various ways including long-term monitoring of frog calls.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-count-your-fish-before-they-hatch-experts-react-to-plans-to-release-2-million-fish-into-the-murray-darling-140428">Don't count your fish before they hatch: experts react to plans to release 2 million fish into the Murray Darling</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The management committee is determined to rebuild the ecological integrity of the wetlands. But there is a lot still to do, and there are differences of opinion over the priorities and the speed at which things are being done.</p>
<p>The initial funding of A$17 million from the Victorian government will soon be exhausted. Other financial avenues are being pursued. This is necessary to secure a future for this bright spot – a gem of inestimable value – in the Murray-Darling Basin.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342651/original/file-20200618-41248-v9v8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342651/original/file-20200618-41248-v9v8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/342651/original/file-20200618-41248-v9v8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342651/original/file-20200618-41248-v9v8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342651/original/file-20200618-41248-v9v8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342651/original/file-20200618-41248-v9v8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342651/original/file-20200618-41248-v9v8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/342651/original/file-20200618-41248-v9v8c4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Winton Wetlands represent a bright spot for social-ecological restoration and renewal in the Murray-Darling Basin.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Lance Lloyd</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Max Finlayson is affiliated with the Winton Wetlands Committee of Management through his role as Chair of their Environmental Strategy Advisory Panel. He is also President (2019-2020) of the Society of Wetland Scientists that has recently accepted the Winton Wetlands as the first non-USA site under its Wetlands of Distinction initiative. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lance Lloyd consults to Winton Wetlands as their Restoration Scientist (Aquatic Ecology). The Committee of Managemment receives funding from multiple organisations for work at the Winton Wetlands such as the Wettenhall Foundation, Government (DELWP) and external grant schemes.</span></em></p>The number of visitors to the restored wetlands is increasing each year, as is the wildlife.Max Finlayson, Adjunct Professor, Charles Sturt UniversityLance Lloyd, Honorary Research Fellow, Federation University AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1404282020-06-14T19:57:30Z2020-06-14T19:57:30ZDon’t count your fish before they hatch: experts react to plans to release 2 million fish into the Murray Darling<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341413/original/file-20200612-38695-s2nehc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=6%2C0%2C4243%2C2828&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dean Lewins/AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The New South Wales government <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/two-million-fish-to-be-released-into-murray-darling-system-20200608-p550gu.html">plans to release</a> two million native fish into rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin, in the largest breeding program of its kind in the state. But as the river system recovers from a string of mass fish deaths, caution is needed.</p>
<p>Having suitable <a href="https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/fishing/aquaculture/publications/species-freshwater/collecting-finfish-broodstock">breeding fish</a> does not always guarantee millions of healthy offspring for restocking. And even if millions of young fish are released into the wild, increased fish populations in the long term are not assured.</p>
<p>For stocking to be successful, fish must be released into <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/pubs/Strategies-to-improve-post-release-survival-of-hatchery-reared-threatened-fish-species_0.pdf">good quality water, with suitable habitat and lots of food</a>. But these conditions have been quite rare in Murray Darling rivers over the past three years.</p>
<p>We research the impact of human activity on fish and aquatic systems and have studied many Australian fish restocking programs. So let’s take a closer look at the NSW government’s plans.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341411/original/file-20200612-38707-b3uoxa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341411/original/file-20200612-38707-b3uoxa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341411/original/file-20200612-38707-b3uoxa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341411/original/file-20200612-38707-b3uoxa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341411/original/file-20200612-38707-b3uoxa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341411/original/file-20200612-38707-b3uoxa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341411/original/file-20200612-38707-b3uoxa.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A mass fish kill at Menindee in northern NSW in January 2019 depleted Fisk stocks.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Success stories</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/two-million-fish-to-be-released-into-murray-darling-system-20200608-p550gu.html">According to</a> the Sydney Morning Herald, the NSW restocking program involves releasing juvenile Murray cod, golden perch and silver perch into the Darling River downstream of Brewarrina, in northwestern NSW. </p>
<p>Other areas including the Lachlan, Murrumbidgee, Macquarie and Murray Rivers will reportedly also be restocked. These species and regions were among the hardest hit by recent fish kills.</p>
<p>Fish restocking is <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233194500_Stocking_Trends_A_Quantitative_Review_of_Governmental_Fish_Stocking_in_the_United_States_1931_to_2004">used worldwide</a> to boost species after events such as fish kills, help threatened species recover, and increase populations of recreational fishing species.</p>
<p>Since the 1970s in the Murray-Darling river system, <a href="https://www.bnbfishing.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Assessment-of-stocking-effectiveness-of-Murray-cod-and-golden-perch.pdf">millions of fish</a> have been bred in <a href="https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/about-us/science-and-research/centres/narrandera-fisheries-centre">government</a> and <a href="https://www.murraydarlingfisheries.com.au/">private</a> hatcheries in spring each year. Young fish, called fingerlings, are usually released in the following summer and autumn. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-its-time-to-talk-about-our-water-emergency-139024">Australia, it's time to talk about our water emergency</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>There have been success stories. For example, the endangered <a href="https://www.fishfiles.com.au/media/fish-magazine/FISH-Vol-23-2/Back-from-the-brink">trout cod</a> was restocked into the Ovens and Murrumbidgee Rivers between <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235774467_Reintroduction_success_of_threatened_Australian_trout_cod_Maccullochella_macquariensis_based_on_growth_and_reproduction">1997 and 2006</a>. Prior to the restocking program, the species was locally extinct. It’s now re-established in the Murrumbidgee River and no longer requires stocking to maintain the population.</p>
<p>In response to fish kills in 2010, the Edward-Wakool river system <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/aec.12424">was restocked</a> to help fish recover when natural spawning was expected to be low. And the threatened Murray hardyhead is now increasing in numbers thanks <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/water/wetlands/publications/wetlands-australia/national-wetlands-update-february-2020/murray-hardyhead#:%7E:text=In%20November%202018%2C%20around%20800,fish%20to%20NSW%20river%20systems.">to a successful stocking program</a> in the Lower Darling.</p>
<p>After recent fish kills in the Murray Darling, breeding fish known as “broodstock” were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/worldtoday/mass-fish-rescue-gets-underway-in-darling-river/11492042">rescued from the river</a> and taken to government and private hatcheries. Eventually, it was expected the rescued fish and their offspring would restock the rivers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341420/original/file-20200612-38724-115m2l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341420/original/file-20200612-38724-115m2l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341420/original/file-20200612-38724-115m2l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341420/original/file-20200612-38724-115m2l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341420/original/file-20200612-38724-115m2l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341420/original/file-20200612-38724-115m2l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341420/original/file-20200612-38724-115m2l5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Murray hardyhead after environment agencies transplanted a population of the endangered native fish.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">North Central Catchment Management Authority</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Words of caution</h2>
<p>Fish hatchery managers rarely count their fish before they hatch. It’s quite a challenge to ensure adult fish develop viable eggs that are then fertilised at high rates. </p>
<p>Once hatched, larvae must be transported to ponds containing the right amount of plankton for food. The larvae must then avoid predatory birds, be kept free from disease, and grow at the right temperatures.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/last-summers-fish-carnage-sparked-public-outrage-heres-what-has-happened-since-132346">Last summer's fish carnage sparked public outrage. Here's what has happened since</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When it comes to releasing the fish into the wild, careful decisions must be made about how many fish to release, where and when. Factors such as water temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen levels must be carefully assessed. </p>
<p>Introducing hatchery-reared fish into the wild does <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0044848610004540?casa_token=NbFwq0hZLSgAAAAA:SntmSZkoWH387KKTDvXn-rHg-I6P0P0Q-OfgI6hvb6gp_Hxy82Y9AMIndcMYR3yarSkeFOY_cWE">not always deliver</a> dramatic improvements in fish numbers. Poor water quality, lack of food and <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/pubs/A-review-of-domestication-effects-on-stocked-fish-in-the-MDB.pdf">slow adaptation to the wild</a> can reduce survival rates. </p>
<p>In some parts of the Murray-Darling, restocking <a href="https://researchers.cdu.edu.au/en/publications/contribution-of-stocked-fish-to-riverine-populations-of-golden-pe">is likely to</a> have slowed the decline in native fish numbers, although it has not stopped it altogether.</p>
<h2>Address the root cause</h2>
<p>Fish stocking decisions are sometimes motivated by economic reasons, such as boosting species sought by anglers who pay licence fees and support tourist industries. But stocking programs must also consider the underlying reasons for declining fish populations.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341422/original/file-20200612-93512-93hfcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/341422/original/file-20200612-93512-93hfcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341422/original/file-20200612-93512-93hfcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341422/original/file-20200612-93512-93hfcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341422/original/file-20200612-93512-93hfcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341422/original/file-20200612-93512-93hfcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/341422/original/file-20200612-93512-93hfcd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Swan Hill, home to a larger-than-life replica of the Murray cod, is just one river community that relies on anglers for tourism.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Aside from poor water quality, fish in the Murray Darling are threatened by being sucked into irrigation systems, cold water pollution from dams, dams and weirs blocking migration paths and invasive fish species. These factors must be addressed alongside restocking.</p>
<p>Fish should not be released into areas with unsuitable habitat or water quality. The Darling River fish kills were caused by <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/managing-water/drought-murray-darling-basin/fish-deaths-lower-darling/independent-assessment-fish">low oxygen levels</a>, associated with drought and water extraction. These conditions could rapidly return if we have another hot, dry summer.</p>
<p>Stocking rivers with young fish is only one step. They must then grow to adults and successfully breed. So the restocking program must consider the entire fish life cycle, and be coupled with good <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-08-28/more-fish-kills-expected-as-nsw-government-announces-rescue-plan/11457826">river management</a>. </p>
<p>The Murray Darling Basin Authority’s <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/pubs/Native%20Fish%20Emergency%20Response%20Plan%20-%20October%202019_0.pdf">Native Fish Recovery Strategy</a> includes management actions such as improving fish passage, delivering environmental flows, improving habitat, controlling invasive species and fish harvest restrictions. Funding the strategy’s implementation <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-good-plan-to-help-darling-river-fish-recover-exists-so-lets-get-on-with-it-110168">is a key next step</a>.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>After recent rains, parts of the Murray Darling river system are now flowing for the first time in years. But some locals say the flows are <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-11/lower-darling-flows-hit-pooncarie-first-time-in-18-months/12137306">only a trickle</a> and more rain is urgently needed.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/weekly/0">Higher than average rainfall</a> is predicted between July and September. This will be needed for restocked fish to thrive. If the rain does not arrive, and other measures are not taken to improve the system’s health, then the restocking plans may be futile.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-wrote-the-report-for-the-minister-on-fish-deaths-in-the-lower-darling-heres-why-it-could-happen-again-115063">We wrote the report for the minister on fish deaths in the lower Darling – here's why it could happen again</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/140428/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lee Baumgartner receives funding from the Australian government to perform critical research into the impacts of human activities on fish and aquatic systems in South East Asia. He sits on a range of state and federal advisory panels and is a passionate advocate for sustainable practices in the Murray-Darling Basin.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Dr Jamin Forbes received funding from the NSW Recreational Fishing Trust for research into the effectiveness of stocking Australian native freshwater fish.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Doyle receives funding from the Ian Potter Foundation and NSW State Government to undertake research relating to protecting Australian freshwater fish and aquatic biotia from human activities and a changing climate.</span></em></p>Fish must be released into good quality water, with suitable habitat and lots of food. These conditions have been quite rare in Murray Darling rivers in recent years.Lee Baumgartner, Professor of Fisheries and River Management, Institute for Land, Water, and Society, Charles Sturt UniversityJamin Forbes, Freshwater Ecologist, Charles Sturt UniversityKatie Doyle, Freshwater Ecologist, Charles Sturt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1336852020-05-05T19:53:25Z2020-05-05T19:53:25Z6,000 years of climate history: an ancient lake in the Murray-Darling has yielded its secrets<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/325471/original/file-20200405-74235-aijk4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tom Hubble</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For millions of years, the Murray River has flowed from the Australian Alps across the inland plains, winding through South Australia before emptying into the ocean. But the final leg of its journey once looked vastly different.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-61800-x">research released today</a> conclusively shows what has long been suspected: 6,000 years ago, water levels in the Lower Murray River were so high that much of the system in South Australia comprised a huge lake.</p>
<p>We also uncovered an invaluable long-term record of floods and droughts in the Murray Darling Basin, by drilling deep into layers of silt and clay built up over 12,000 years.</p>
<p>Our findings point to how Australia’s most important river system might be altered by future sea level rise. What’s more, a better record of past floods and drought will help manage water use in Australia’s most important river system.</p>
<figure>
<style>
@media only screen and (max-width: 450px) {
iframe.juxtapose { height: 200px; width: 100%; }
}
@media only screen and (min-width: 451px) and (max-width: 1460px) {
iframe.juxtapose { height: 400px; width: 100%; }
}
</style>
<iframe frameborder="0" class="juxtapose" width="100%" height="400" src="https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/juxtapose/latest/embed/index.html?uid=13a6d5a4-8e79-11ea-a879-0edaf8f81e27"></iframe>
<figcaption>The Lower Murray River today and a computer-generated image of what Lake Mannum may have looked like between 5,000 and 8,500 years ago when sea levels were 2 metres higher than they are today. Original photo: Tom Hubble. Modified image: Kathirine Sentas.</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Probing the past</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/scientists-hate-to-say-i-told-you-so-but-australia-you-were-warned-130211">Our climate is changing</a> and sea levels are rising.
Scientists are working hard to forecast what environments such as rivers and estuaries will look like under higher sea levels and, in Australia, <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-rare-natural-phenomenon-brings-severe-drought-to-australia-climate-change-is-making-it-more-common-133058">more intense droughts and floods</a>. </p>
<p>One way to do this is to look back to a period 5,000-8,000 years ago, to a point in the sea level cycle known as the <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218430">Holocene highstand</a>. The Holocene refers to the past 11,700 years or so of Earth’s history. The highstand is the point at which sea levels were highest.</p>
<p>Today, the Murray River crosses into South Australia and flows within a narrow valley, then gradually widens towards Lake Alexandrina where it empties into the sea. </p>
<p>But it wasn’t always this way. After the peak of the last glacial period 18,000 years ago, melting ice caused sea levels to rise from about 120 metres below today’s level. About 6,000 years ago, sea level peaked at two metres above today’s level.</p>
<p>Researchers have previously <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262689846_Geomechanical_modeling_of_the_Murray's_Millennium_Drought_river_bank_failures_a_case_of_the_unexpected_consequences_of_slow_drawdown_soft_bank_materials_and_anthropogenic_change">hypothesised</a> that over several thousand years, the high sea level at the mouth of the Murray acted like a dam, causing water to back up in the river, creating a saltwater lake known as Lake Mannum.</p>
<p>Our research confirms that the lake existed, and that it was enormous - stretching from the mouth of the Murray to about 200 kilometres upstream near Swan Reach.</p>
<p>We used high resolution <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-39516-4">two-</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-61800-x">three-dimensional modelling</a> modelling of water levels and flows to confirm the presence of the lake, and how it formed.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BoRpRJtI65g?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
</figure>
<h2>Layers of history</h2>
<p>The naturally still waters of Lake Mannum acted as a enormous trap for clay and silt discharged upstream. Under various conditions, such as floods, the sediment travelled downstream and settled to the lake’s floor. </p>
<p>Today, the climate history for the Murray-Darling Basin is written in these sediment layers.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330920/original/file-20200428-76598-qixf5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330920/original/file-20200428-76598-qixf5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/330920/original/file-20200428-76598-qixf5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=2001&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330920/original/file-20200428-76598-qixf5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=2001&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330920/original/file-20200428-76598-qixf5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=2001&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330920/original/file-20200428-76598-qixf5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=2515&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330920/original/file-20200428-76598-qixf5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=2515&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/330920/original/file-20200428-76598-qixf5u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=2515&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sediment core collected near Monteith in the Lower Murray River Valley showing lots of fine layers of mud.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Scanned core images created by Anna Helfensdorfer.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We collected a 30 metre-long sediment core from the present day floodplain of the Lower Murray River. </p>
<p>The core contains an 11-metre section of sediment deposited on the floor of Lake Mannum between 8,500 and 5,000 years ago. Each metre took roughly 315 years to accumulate - about three millimetres a year. </p>
<p>We believe each layer in the core probably represents an episode of increased or decreased river flow. </p>
<p>Most layers were probably produced when snow melt from the Australian Alps in spring and summer transported mud along the river system. Some layers will represent large floods that came down the Murray River, while others will represent floods that flowed down the Darling.</p>
<p>Longer-term variations in the thickness of the layers may correspond to extended periods of wetter and drier weather. </p>
<p>The next phase of our research will involve a close analysis of the sediment layers to obtain a reliable, detailed, high resolution record of flood and drought in the Murray Darling Basin.</p>
<h2>What can we learn?</h2>
<p>As sea level dropped to modern levels over the last 5,000 years, the lake slowly drained and turned back into a river.</p>
<p>These days, the lower Murray River is intensively managed. Five barrages, or barriers, have been erected near the river mouth to keep the water fresh by preventing seawater from creeping in, and to maintain water levels. Significant volumes of water have <a href="https://theconversation.com/memo-to-the-environment-minister-a-river-does-need-all-its-water-119089">been extracted</a> for irrigation and domestic use. </p>
<p>Some people argue the <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/river-information/running-river-murray/lower-lakes-barrages">barrages should be removed</a> to restore the natural tidal estuary and allow sea water to influence lake levels. Their removal is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-murray-darling-basin-scandal-economists-have-seen-it-coming-for-decades-119989">unlikely</a> in the near future. But our research gives insight into what could happen if the barrages were removed, and sea levels rise under climate change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331718/original/file-20200430-42913-1o6p2qc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/331718/original/file-20200430-42913-1o6p2qc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331718/original/file-20200430-42913-1o6p2qc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331718/original/file-20200430-42913-1o6p2qc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=341&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331718/original/file-20200430-42913-1o6p2qc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331718/original/file-20200430-42913-1o6p2qc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/331718/original/file-20200430-42913-1o6p2qc.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=429&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Lower Murray River near Mannum confined within the Lower Murray Gorge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Photo: Tom Hubble</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We expect the next step in our research, analysing the sediment cores, to provide valuable data on long-term river flows and indicate whether intense droughts, such as the Millenium drought, are more or less frequent than the once-in-a-century figure often suggested. </p>
<p>In future, water managers deciding on water allocations may benefit from knowing how much water has historically come down the system, and how often.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133685/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Hannah Power receives funding from the the Australian Research Council, the NSW Government under the State Emergency Management Projects program, and ship time through Australia's Marine National Facility.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Helfensdorfer received funding through an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Hubble received funding between 2013 and 2016 from South Australian Government funded Goyder Institute for Water Research for his Murray River research projects; and has been awarded ship time on RV Investigator through Australia's National Marine Facility. </span></em></p>The findings point to how Australia’s most important river system might be altered by future sea level rise.Hannah Power, Senior Lecturer in Coastal Science, University of NewcastleAnna Helfensdorfer, PhD Candidate, University of SydneyTom Hubble, Associate professor, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1364922020-04-20T20:02:54Z2020-04-20T20:02:54ZAustralia’s inland rivers are the pulse of the outback. By 2070, they’ll be unrecognisable<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328996/original/file-20200420-152571-1h1hp18.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=94%2C50%2C4762%2C3589&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Inland Australia’s complex system of winding rivers, extensive wetlands, ancient waterholes and seemingly endless parched floodplains are rarely given more than a passing thought by many Australians who live on the coastal fringes. </p>
<p>Yet these waterways are lifelines along which communities, agriculture and trade have flourished. </p>
<p>Etched into the psyche of regional Australia, these river systems are the pulse of the outback. Before asking a local how things are going, peek over the bridge in town for an indication.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sure-save-furry-animals-after-the-bushfires-but-our-river-creatures-are-suffering-too-133004">Sure, save furry animals after the bushfires – but our river creatures are suffering too</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When relaxing in the shade of an old river red gum alongside one of Australia’s lazy inland rivers, it’s natural to think of them as timeless and resilient to environmental change. </p>
<p>Yet, these rivers <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.09.035">evolved over millennia</a> and continue to <a href="https://www.publish.csiro.au/mf/MF14251">change over years and decades</a>. </p>
<p>And we already know from previous studies that future climate change is likely to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature04312/">reduce stream flow</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0123-1">water availability</a> in drylands around the world. </p>
<p>But what <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-63622-3">our new research</a> has shown, for the first time, is that these declines in stream flow may trigger a dramatic change in the physical structure and function (the <a href="https://www.geomorphology.org.uk/what-geomorphology-0">geomorphology</a>) of Australia’s inland rivers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328997/original/file-20200420-152571-142dbuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328997/original/file-20200420-152571-142dbuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328997/original/file-20200420-152571-142dbuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328997/original/file-20200420-152571-142dbuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328997/original/file-20200420-152571-142dbuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=189&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328997/original/file-20200420-152571-142dbuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328997/original/file-20200420-152571-142dbuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328997/original/file-20200420-152571-142dbuz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=238&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Macquarie River in dry (2008) and wet (2010) conditions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim Ralph</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Meandering rivers and flat, wide floodplains</h2>
<p>The physical structure of a river depends on how much water flows through it, and the sediment that water carries. </p>
<p>Reductions in water flow – as expected due to climate change – can lead to a build-up of sediment downstream. In extreme cases, this “silting up” can cause complete disintegration of river channels, where water flows out across the floodplain. </p>
<p>Not all rivers are alike, and the rivers of the Murray-Darling and Lake Eyre basins (covering 1.8 million square kilometres) are particularly diverse. Many of these rivers and wetlands are internationally recognised for their <a href="https://rsis.ramsar.org/ris-search/?f%5b0%5d=regionCountry_en_ss%3AAustralia">hydrological and ecological importance</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/no-water-no-leadership-new-murray-darling-basin-report-reveals-states-climate-gamble-136514">No water, no leadership: new Murray Darling Basin report reveals states' climate gamble</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>They range from large meandering rivers swollen by seasonal spring flows (the <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/upper-murray">Upper Murray</a>, <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/mitta-mitta">Mitta Mitta</a>, <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/kiewa">Kiewa</a>, and <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/ovens">Ovens</a> rivers), to rivers that progressively get smaller until they become exhausted on flat, wide floodplains and disintegrate into large, boom-and-bust wetlands (the <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/lachlan">Lachlan</a>, <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/macquarie-castlereagh">Macquarie</a>, and <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/gwydir">Gwydir</a> rivers). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328998/original/file-20200420-152576-db6azz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328998/original/file-20200420-152576-db6azz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328998/original/file-20200420-152576-db6azz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328998/original/file-20200420-152576-db6azz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328998/original/file-20200420-152576-db6azz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328998/original/file-20200420-152576-db6azz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328998/original/file-20200420-152576-db6azz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/328998/original/file-20200420-152576-db6azz.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dry channel of the lower Warrego River, northwest NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the drier areas of central Australia, rivers typically persist as a string of isolated waterholes for years at a time, occasionally punctuated by very large floods (<a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/warrego">Warrego</a>, <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/paroo">Paroo</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamantina_River">Diamantina</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooper_Creek">Cooper Creek</a>). </p>
<h2>A sobering future</h2>
<p>For Australia’s inland rivers, the average dryness, or “aridity”, of the catchment is the best predictor of what the overall structure and function of the rivers within look like.</p>
<p>Compiling a range of <a href="https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/mips/cmip5/">climatic data</a>, we modelled aridity for the Australian continent in 2070 under a relatively <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/492978e6-d26b-4202-ae51-5eba10c0b51a/files/wa-rcp-fact-sheet.pdf">moderate climate change scenario</a>.</p>
<p>The results are sobering. Over the next 50 years, the arid zone – containing the areas of true desert – is projected to expand well into the Murray-Darling Basin and almost entirely envelope the Lake Eyre Basin. </p>
<figure><img src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/1006/Aust_aridity.gif?1587354666" width="100%"><figcaption>Modern aridity index and the projected aridification of Australia by 2070. The red outlines show the extent of the Murray-Darling and Lake Eyre basins.</figcaption></figure>
<p>At the same time, the humid and dry subhumid fringes around the Great Dividing Range and coastal areas are expected to contract. </p>
<p>This is concerning because the relatively wet western slopes of the Great Dividing Range are where many inland Australian rivers begin, with most of their water sourced in these smaller sub-catchments. </p>
<h2>Evolution of our inland rivers</h2>
<p>The impact of this projected drying pattern on Australia’s inland rivers is expected to be profound.</p>
<p>Despite only occupying around 3.8% of the Murray-Darling Basin, the Upper Murray, Mitta Mitta, Kiewa, and Ovens rivers presently provide a large amount of flow within the lower Basin (33% of average annual flows). </p>
<p>These rivers flow out of the southeastern highlands towards the Murray River, but over the next 50 years they’re expected to experience declining downstream flows. This leads to less efficient flushing of sediment downstream, which, in turn, will increase sediment deposition within these rivers, reducing their size. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329000/original/file-20200420-152571-1ic5lkv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329000/original/file-20200420-152571-1ic5lkv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329000/original/file-20200420-152571-1ic5lkv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329000/original/file-20200420-152571-1ic5lkv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329000/original/file-20200420-152571-1ic5lkv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329000/original/file-20200420-152571-1ic5lkv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329000/original/file-20200420-152571-1ic5lkv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329000/original/file-20200420-152571-1ic5lkv.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Channel breakdown along Eldee Creek in far western NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tim Ralph</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Other rivers – such as the <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/murrumbidgee">Murrumbidgee</a> and <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/discover-basin/catchments/border-rivers">Macintyre</a> rivers – are expected to undergo even more dramatic changes to their structure and behaviour. </p>
<p>Right now these rivers maintain a winding course to the central Murray and Barwon rivers, respectively. But our projections suggest these continuous channels won’t be supported, and are likely to be interrupted by sections of channel breakdown.</p>
<p>Under a drier climate, rivers such as the Lachlan and Macquarie may come to resemble present-day central Australian rivers – only persisting as disconnected waterholes for long periods of time, with internationally important wetlands (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbung_Swamp">Great Cumbung Swamp</a> and <a href="https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/water/wetlands/internationally-significant-wetlands/macquarie-marshes">Macquarie Marshes</a>) much less frequently inundated. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-sweet-relief-of-rain-after-bushfires-threatens-disaster-for-our-rivers-129449">The sweet relief of rain after bushfires threatens disaster for our rivers</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Such changes to river structure and function will have long-lasting impacts on water, sediment, and nutrient distribution. This will likely change the dynamics of the river ecosystem, as well as the way we manage and use these rivers.</p>
<h2>A parched future</h2>
<p>While our research hasn’t investigated the potential ecological, socio-economic or cultural effects of structural changes, we can expect them to be very significant, and potentially irreversible. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-blame-the-murray-darling-basin-plan-its-climate-and-economic-change-driving-farmers-out-128048">Don't blame the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. It's climate and economic change driving farmers out</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Many of Australia’s native aquatic and dryland flora and fauna are adapted to a highly variable climate regime, but there are limits beyond which these ecosystems cannot recover or survive. For example, <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1046/j.1365-2427.2003.01083.x">seeds and invertebrate eggs</a> can survive many years buried in dry soil waiting for a flood, but if water doesn’t come, eventually they won’t be viable.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329001/original/file-20200420-152597-1fk7xa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329001/original/file-20200420-152597-1fk7xa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/329001/original/file-20200420-152597-1fk7xa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329001/original/file-20200420-152597-1fk7xa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329001/original/file-20200420-152597-1fk7xa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329001/original/file-20200420-152597-1fk7xa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329001/original/file-20200420-152597-1fk7xa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/329001/original/file-20200420-152597-1fk7xa4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Parched soil in the Macquarie Marshes, NSW.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Gavin Smith</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What’s more, extracting too much water from our inland river systems for agriculture or other uses will exacerbate the threats posed by a drying climate. </p>
<p>Given the complexity and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-12-01/canning-murray-barling-basin-plan-solves-none-of-the-problems/11734440">tensions</a> surrounding <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-09/murray-darling-basin-water-plan-whats-next/11290060">water use and water sharing</a> in Australia’s inland rivers, particularly in the Murray-Darling Basin, understanding how these critical systems might respond in the future is now more important than ever.</p>
<p>Water is one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-water-no-leadership-new-murray-darling-basin-report-reveals-states-climate-gamble-136514">most contested</a> resources in Australia, and it’s the fundamentally important river and wetland ecosystems and agricultural industries that will bear the brunt of a drying climate. </p>
<p>To make sure outback communities can continue to survive, it’s vital we protect their lifeline. Water resource planning must include consideration of climate change, as the projected changes will likely increase pressure on already vulnerable systems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136492/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zacchary Larkin receives funding from the NSW Environmental Trust program, NSW government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Timothy J. Ralph receives funding from the Australian Research Council, and the NSW Environmental Trust program, which is managed by the NSW government.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stephen Tooth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Over the next 50 years, the arid zone – containing the areas of true desert – is projected to expand well into the Murray-Darling Basin and almost entirely envelope the Lake Eyre Basin.Zacchary Larkin, Postdoctoral Researcher in Environmental Sciences, Macquarie UniversityStephen Tooth, Professor of Physical Geography, Aberystwyth UniversityTimothy J. Ralph, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Sciences, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.