tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/networks-20023/articles
Networks – The Conversation
2023-11-20T13:18:30Z
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/218002
2023-11-20T13:18:30Z
2023-11-20T13:18:30Z
Good profits from bad news: How the Kennedy assassination helped make network TV news wealthy
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560217/original/file-20231117-28-k0daxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=4%2C4%2C2983%2C2436&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President John F. Kennedy is seen shortly before his assassination on Nov. 22, 1963.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TV-MemorableMoments/4239d513431b455cb8a35299340210b1/photo">Associated Press</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In journalism, bad news sells. “If it bleeds, it leads” is a famous industry catchphrase, which explains why <a href="https://www.routledge.com/If-It-Bleeds-It-Leads-An-Anatomy-Of-Television-News/Kerbel/p/book/9780813398198">violent crime</a>, <a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/terrorism-and-the-media/9780231100151">war and terrorism</a>, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118841570.iejs0202">natural disasters</a> are ubiquitous on TV news.</p>
<p>The fact that journalists and their employers make money from troubling events is something researchers rarely explore. But even if it seems distasteful, the link between negative news and profit is important to understand. As <a href="https://cmj.umaine.edu/faculty-staff/michael-j-socolow/">a media historian</a>, I think studying <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00947679.2023.2195346">this topic</a> can shed light on <a href="http://doi.org/10.1007/s42761-021-00046-w">the forces</a> that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01538-4">shape contemporary journalism</a>.</p>
<p>The assassination of John F. Kennedy 60 years ago offers a case study. After a gunman killed the president, television news offered wall-to-wall, nonstop coverage at considerable cost to the networks. This earned TV news a reputation for public-spiritedness that lasted decades.</p>
<p>This reputation – which may seem surprising now but was widely accepted at the time – obscured the fact that TV news would soon become enormously profitable. Those profits are due in part because awful news attracts big audiences – which remains the case today.</p>
<h2>The JFK assassination made Americans turn to TV news</h2>
<p>Shortly after Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963, the TV networks demonstrated their sensitivity to the tragedy by canceling commercials and <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo3641671.html">devoting all their airtime to the story</a> for several days. CBS President Frank Stanton would later call it “the longest uninterrupted story in the history of television.” At one point, 93% of all U.S. TVs were tuned into the coverage.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="In a black and white image, a young woman is seen crying in front of half a dozen televisions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560213/original/file-20231117-23-37j1d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=64%2C0%2C3163%2C4132&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560213/original/file-20231117-23-37j1d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560213/original/file-20231117-23-37j1d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560213/original/file-20231117-23-37j1d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=755&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560213/original/file-20231117-23-37j1d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=949&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560213/original/file-20231117-23-37j1d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=949&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560213/original/file-20231117-23-37j1d6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=949&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">As televisions report news of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, a woman weeps in a Sears department store in Levittown, Pa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/as-televisions-in-the-background-report-news-of-the-news-photo/1396714258">Jack Rosen/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Estimates vary, but the networks’ decision to forgo ads <a href="https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2023-11-14/kennedy-assassination-60th-anniversary-tv-news-viewers-walter-cronkite">may have cost them as much as US$19 million</a> – which is $191 million in 2023 dollars. </p>
<p>For decades, the networks presented their assassination coverage as <a href="https://search.worldcat.org/title/42593182">the epitome of public service</a>. And over and over, network executives and journalists argued that TV news was uniquely protected from the economic pressures found elsewhere in broadcasting. </p>
<p>TV news in the early 1960s was “the loss leader that permitted NBC, CBS and ABC to justify the enormous profits made by their entertainment divisions,” ABC News’ <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/12/AR2010111206508_pf.html">Ted Koppel reminisced</a> in The Washington Post in 2010. He added, “It never occurred to the network brass that news programming could be profitable.”</p>
<p>The public-service narrative that took root in November 1963 ignored the fact that the huge audiences turning to TV news for information and comfort would soon become very lucrative. </p>
<h2>How TV news became a money machine</h2>
<p>Only two months before Kennedy’s assassination, in September 1963, the networks expanded their evening newscasts to 30 minutes. They had previously been 15 minutes, offering little more than headlines. The expanded newscasts <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1464884910379707">sold out all their advertising opportunities</a> immediately, as television news drew the predictable daily mass audiences that sponsors craved.</p>
<p>The Kennedy assassination coverage, combined with the expanded newscasts, significantly increased the commercial value of TV news. Throughout the 1960s, broadcast journalism began to mature into the most lucrative genre of programming on American television. </p>
<p>By the 1965-1966 television season, NBC’s “The Huntley-Brinkley Report” <a href="https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,941023,00.html">generated $27 million in advertising a year</a>, making it the network’s most lucrative program – out-earning even “Bonanza,” the top entertainment show. “The CBS Evening News” was <a href="https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,941023,00.html">drawing in $25.5 million</a> in advertising, making it the second-most profitable program on U.S. television. </p>
<p>Around this time, networks were telling regulators that they had sacrificed millions of dollars for public service through journalism. For example, <a href="https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=uiug.30112068807905&seq=351&q1=a+direct+responsibility+to+the+public+in+news+and+public+affairs+which+is+not+necessarily+&start=1">in 1965 testimony</a> before the Federal Communications Commission, executives from ABC, CBS and NBC said their news divisions had loftier motives than simply making money. </p>
<p>But they were making money, and lots of it. By 1969, “Huntley-Brinkley” was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00947679.2023.2195346">earning $34 million in advertising</a> on a production budget of $7.2 million, making the program – according to Fortune magazine – “the biggest source of revenue that the N.B.C. network has – bigger than ‘Laugh-In’ or ‘The Dean Martin Show.’” A decade earlier, “Huntley-Brinkley” had been making just $8 million in ad and sponsorship revenue.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="In a black-and-white photo, two news anchors, one smoking a pipe, are seen sitting in a broadcast studio at the Miami Beach Convention Center. In the background, conventioneers are seen milling around and a sign reads 'VICTORY IN 68'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560230/original/file-20231118-19-whuibz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/560230/original/file-20231118-19-whuibz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560230/original/file-20231118-19-whuibz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560230/original/file-20231118-19-whuibz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560230/original/file-20231118-19-whuibz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560230/original/file-20231118-19-whuibz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/560230/original/file-20231118-19-whuibz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Chet Huntley and David Brinkley broadcast from the Republican National Convention in 1968.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/chet-huntley-and-david-brinkley-broadcasting-for-nbc-at-the-news-photo/1297996689">Ben Martin/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>The networks didn’t tout their profits, though. Instead, they <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/T/bo12345529.html">continually promoted their efforts</a> covering the Vietnam War, civil unrest and the assassinations of the 1960s as service in the public interest. They also claimed that news production cost them millions, and they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1464884910379707">hid ad revenues</a> accrued by news programming elsewhere in their corporate budgets. Doing this gave them a leg up on regulatory privileges, such as station license renewals. </p>
<h2>The birth of modern TV news</h2>
<p>Ultimately, the chaotic, cacophonous and confusing decade of the 1960s would end up launching the hyper-commercial media world we live in today. Chasing sensational investigative stories, such as Watergate and the Iran-Contra arms-for-hostages scandal, would <a href="https://www.upi.com/Archives/1987/07/08/Oliver-North-draws-big-ratings/8772552715200/">generate higher ratings</a> and <a href="https://niemanreports.org/articles/the-transformation-of-network-news/">more advertising revenue</a>, and turn broadcast journalists into national celebrities. </p>
<p>The original values animating network broadcast journalism at its inception would surrender to more lucrative formats. “60 Minutes” – a CBS News production – eventually became the most valuable network-owned programming property <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=n2c6DwAAQBAJ&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&dq=Tell+Me+a+Story+60+Minutes&source=gbs_navlinks_s">in the history of American television</a>, and by the 1980s almost every local news station had <a href="https://www.wiley.com/en-us/News+is+People%3A+The+Rise+of+Local+TV+News+and+the+Fall+of+News+from+New+York-p-9780813812076">launched its own</a> “I-Team” investigations group.</p>
<p>Eventually, the professionalism that drew audiences to TV news in the wake of the Kennedy assassination in 1963 would be supplanted by audience growth strategies <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=lyWiYgEACAAJ&dq=inauthor:%22Frank+N.+Magid+Associates%22&hl=en&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwilh7nH9suCAxXOFFkFHY1GDZEQ6AF6BAgBEAE">sold by TV news consultants</a>. Audience analytics, minute-by-minute engagement metrics and Q-scores calibrating anchor “likability” would <a href="https://penguinrandomhousehighereducation.com/book/?isbn=9780143113775">standardize formats and homogenize newsgathering</a> in the drive to maximize profits.</p>
<p>Yet through the decades, one constant remains: Bad news sells. It’s a media-industry truism whether we’d like to study it or not, and the news broadcasts airing today, 60 years after the events of November 1963, prove it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael J. Socolow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The JFK assassination was a landmark event in TV news history.
Michael J. Socolow, Professor of Communication and Journalism, University of Maine
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/217266
2023-11-08T04:13:48Z
2023-11-08T04:13:48Z
Optus blackout explained: what is a ‘deep network’ outage and what may have caused it?
<p>Optus customers woke up this morning to find they were unable to get their social media fix, and they weren’t happy. Around 4am AEDT, customers started to report an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-08/optus-outage-live-blog/103076996">inability to access</a> both mobile and home internet services.</p>
<p>Optus advised it was investigating the issue, with <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-rba-lifts-interest-rates-to-4-35-per-cent-pm-meets-with-chinese-premier-20231107-p5eiag.htmly">reports emerging around</a> midday of some services coming back online. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Optus Help post from X, formerly Twitter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558260/original/file-20231108-25-hgyz4h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558260/original/file-20231108-25-hgyz4h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558260/original/file-20231108-25-hgyz4h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558260/original/file-20231108-25-hgyz4h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558260/original/file-20231108-25-hgyz4h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558260/original/file-20231108-25-hgyz4h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558260/original/file-20231108-25-hgyz4h.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=711&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Optus Help/X</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Around 12.30pm, Optus chief executive Kelly Bayer Rosmarin told radio 2GB the <a href="https://www.9news.com.au/national/optus-outage-when-will-it-be-fixed/4b74342e-9b2a-4c0f-8125-a28be7facd83">path to restoration</a> had been found, nearly nine hours after the blackout began.</p>
<p>The outage, one of the largest in Australia’s history, sent alarm bells ringing across the country. With <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/08/optus-phone-and-internet-outage-affects-millions-across-australia">a number of</a> smaller mobile network providers reselling the Optus network, including Aussie Broadband, Amaysim, CatchConnect, Coles Mobile, Dodo, Moose Mobile <a href="https://whirlpool.net.au/wiki/mobile_carriers">and more</a>, the impact was felt far and wide.</p>
<p>As the morning progressed, the impact grew. Health and emergency services were unable to communicate, <a href="https://7news.com.au/travel/metro-trains/melbourne-train-network-shuts-down-due-to-optus-outage-for-30-minutes-c-12477906">trains in Melbourne</a> were brought to a halt and small businesses across the nation were unable to use Optus EFTPOS. </p>
<p>Fortunately, Optus users could still use roaming to <a href="https://amta.org.au/calling-triple-zero-from-your-mobile/">call 000</a> if they were within the coverage of other telecommunication service providers. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/in-a-crisis-optus-appears-to-be-ignoring-communications-101-217265">In a crisis, Optus appears to be ignoring Communications 101</a>
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</em>
</p>
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<h2>What is a ‘deep network’ problem?</h2>
<p>Earlier today Minister for Communications Michelle Rowland described the incident as a “<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/optus-outage-likely-a-deep-network-issue/103076946">deep network”</a> problem.</p>
<p>Telecommunications networks include three components: the core, transit and access networks. You can think of the <a href="https://www.tatacommunications.com/knowledge-base/network-core-network-explained/">core network</a> as the systems that allow customers’ devices to connect to and access phone and internet services. </p>
<p>The transit network connects the core to the access networks using optical fibre cables. The access networks include the local infrastructure found in suburbs – including the mobile phone towers.</p>
<p>Core network outages can occur when equipment or cables fail, when there is a software fault, or when a cyberattack occurs.</p>
<p>The most common reason for a software fault is when a patch or update is applied and it has an unintended outcome, such as causing one or more of the core network systems to fail.</p>
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<h2>What could have caused this?</h2>
<p>Although Optus hasn’t give any indications as to the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-08/optus-phone-internet-service-down-across-australia/103076700">exact cause of the outage</a>, Bayer Rosmarin <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/08/optus-phone-and-internet-outage-affects-millions-across-australia">said it was</a> unlikely a cyberattack was the cause:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is no indication that it is anything to do with spyware at this stage.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>At the same time, experts have noted mobile cell towers are working, and there seems to be no damage to the underlying fibre optic network. This means we can probably rule out an issue in the transit or access networks.</p>
<p>The scale and speed with which the impact hit (and the somewhat specific timing) indicates the culprit was likely a problem in the core network.</p>
<p>It’s very possible a software or system update was responsible. Such updates or changes often happen out of business hours to have minimal impact. They typically involve a short period of downtime – a “scheduled outage” – which goes unnoticed by customers. </p>
<p>It could be, as some <a href="https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/fears-optus-outage-was-a-planned-upgrade-at-4am-that-went-catastrophically-wrong/news-story/cd25723a64980982bf70411c75472baa">reports have speculated</a>, the Optus outage was an unplanned consequence of a planned system change, such as a planned update or outage. When these processes go wrong, they can go spectacularly wrong! </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558236/original/file-20231108-19-i63c16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A radio and 5G tower against a blue sky" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558236/original/file-20231108-19-i63c16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558236/original/file-20231108-19-i63c16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558236/original/file-20231108-19-i63c16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558236/original/file-20231108-19-i63c16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558236/original/file-20231108-19-i63c16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558236/original/file-20231108-19-i63c16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558236/original/file-20231108-19-i63c16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The mobile network distributed via cell towers provides both phone calls and data to customers.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/radio-communication-cell-towers-on-blue-1971141260">Daria Nipot/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>As for how such a fault may happen, it is likely due to human error (especially since 4am is a time you might expect engineers to be carrying out patch work). However, it could also be a result of other factors, such as a hardware fault that then causes a software failure. </p>
<p>Another possibility is a fault in an accounting or user management system, such as no longer being able to attribute costs or verify users’ identities properly.</p>
<p>Issues in back-end billing and management systems can generate a cascade of failures throughout the rest of a network. In such cases, a simple bug in the system can impact everyone connected to the network.</p>
<h2>How will this be fixed?</h2>
<p>Optus engineers will be actively investigating the cause of the outage. You might be imagining someone scurrying around with wires in their hands trying to find the one that isn’t plugged in – but in reality this will be a lengthy process that involves examining various systems and software configurations to find the culprit.</p>
<p>For Optus, the hard work will continue after the fix is in place to ensure it doesn’t happen again. And perhaps an even more difficult challenge will be convincing the public this was an isolated incident – one that has once again highlighted how vulnerable our massively connected systems are to (even single) <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/business-spectator/news-story/preventing-the-mayhem-of-a-major-telstra-outage/6b59b91ae3865637490da2813663adc9">points of failure</a>.</p>
<p>Speaking on 3AW Afternoons, <a href="https://www.3aw.com.au/optus-ceo-looking-at-compensating-customers-as-services-are-restored-following-unprecedented-outage/">Bayer Rosmarin said</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We are looking at what we can do to say thank you to our customers for their patience.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Optus is likely to pay compensation to customers. For residential customers this may be in the form of a reduced bill. </p>
<p>For business customers, the compensation would be linked with their service-level agreements. In other words, the specific penalties for Optus will be based on individual agreements it has made with various parties using or sharing its services.</p>
<p>Beyond this, it’s highly likely today’s events have dealt a massive blow to Optus’s reputation – especially when considered alongside last year’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-optus-hacker-claims-theyve-deleted-the-data-heres-what-experts-want-you-to-know-191494">Optus data breach</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/optus-says-it-needed-to-keep-identity-data-for-six-years-but-did-it-really-191498">Optus says it needed to keep identity data for six years. But did it really?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Optus suffered one of the largest telecommunications outages in Australian history today. Here are the factors that can cause such events.
Paul Haskell-Dowland, Professor of Cyber Security Practice, Edith Cowan University
Mark A Gregory, Associate Professor, School of Engineering, RMIT University
Mohiuddin Ahmed, Senior Lecturer of Computing and Security, Edith Cowan University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/212708
2023-09-07T00:37:45Z
2023-09-07T00:37:45Z
Fireflies, brain cells, dancers: new synchronisation research shows nature’s perfect timing is all about connections
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546086/original/file-20230904-248967-6t1m2h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=8%2C35%2C5982%2C3835&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/many-fireflies-flying-1917186971">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Getting in sync can be exhilarating when you’re dancing in rhythm with other people or clapping along in an audience. Fireflies too know the joy of synchronisation, timing their flashes together to create a larger display to attract mates. </p>
<p>Synchronisation is important at a more basic level in our bodies, too. Our heart cells all beat together (at least when things are going well), and synchronised electrical waves can help <a href="https://theconversation.com/synchronised-brain-waves-hold-visual-memory-10534">coordinate brain regions</a> – but too much synchronisation of brain cells is what happens in an epileptic seizure. </p>
<p>Sync most often emerges spontaneously rather than through following the lead of some central timekeeper. How does this happen? What is it about a system that determines whether sync will emerge, and how strong it will be? </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2303332120">new research</a> published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we show how the strength of synchronisation in a network depends on the structure of the connections between its members – whether they be brain cells, fireflies, or groups of dancers.</p>
<h2>The science of sync</h2>
<p>Scientists originally <a href="https://www.stevenstrogatz.com/books/sync-the-emerging-science-of-spontaneous-order">became interested in sync</a> to understand the inner workings of natural systems. We have also become interested in designing sync as a desired behaviour in human-made systems such as power grids (to keep them in phase). </p>
<p>Mathematicians can analyse sync by treating the individuals in the system as “<a href="https://www.complexity-explorables.org/explorables/ride-my-kuramotocycle/">coupled oscillators</a>”. An oscillator is something that periodically repeats the same pattern of activity, like the sequence of steps in a repetitive dance, and coupled oscillators are ones that can influence each other’s behaviour.</p>
<p>It can be useful to measure whether a system of oscillators can synchronise their actions, and how strong that synchronisation would be. Strength of synchronisation means how well the sync can recover from disturbances. </p>
<p>Take a group dance, for example. A disturbance might be one person starting to get some steps wrong. The person might quickly recover by watching their friends, they might throw their friends off for a few steps before everyone recovers, or in the worst case it might just cause chaos.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hAx6mYeC6pY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">In the worst case, a disturbance can cause complete collapse of synchronisation.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Synced systems are strong but hard to unravel</h2>
<p>Two factors make it difficult to determine how strong the synchronisation in a set of coupled oscillators could be.</p>
<p>First, it’s rare for a single oscillator to be in charge and telling everyone else what to do. In our dance example, that means there’s neither music nor lead dancers to set the tempo.</p>
<p>And second, usually each oscillator is only connected to a few others in the system. So each dancer can only see and react to a few others, and everyone is taking their cues from a completely different set of dancers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration showing a brain filled with dots linked by lines." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546089/original/file-20230904-243169-xrkzp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/546089/original/file-20230904-243169-xrkzp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546089/original/file-20230904-243169-xrkzp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546089/original/file-20230904-243169-xrkzp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=343&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546089/original/file-20230904-243169-xrkzp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546089/original/file-20230904-243169-xrkzp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/546089/original/file-20230904-243169-xrkzp.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=431&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In the brain, different regions are linked via a complex network of connections.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-illustration/human-brain-design-bright-glowing-plexus-1476763751">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is the case in the brain, for example, where there is a complex network structure of connections between different regions. </p>
<p>Real complex systems like this, where there is no central guiding signal and oscillators are connected in a complex network, are very robust to damage and adaptable to change, and can more easily scale to different sizes. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/electricity-flow-in-the-human-brain-can-be-predicted-using-the-simple-maths-of-networks-new-study-reveals-200831">Electricity flow in the human brain can be predicted using the simple maths of networks, new study reveals</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Stronger sync comes from more wandering walks</h2>
<p>One drawback of such complicated systems is for scientists, as they are mathematically difficult to come to grips with. However, our <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2303332120">new research</a> has made a significant advance on this front.</p>
<p>We have shown how the network structure connecting a set of oscillators controls how well they can synchronise. The quality of sync depends on “walks” on a network, which are sequences of hops between connected oscillators or nodes. </p>
<p>Our maths examines what are called “paired walks”. If you start at one node and take two walks with randomly chosen next hops for a specific number of hops, the two walks might end up at the same node (these are convergent walks) or at different nodes (divergent walks). </p>
<p>We found that the more often paired walks on a network were convergent rather than divergent, the worse the synchronisation on the network would be.</p>
<p>When more paired walks are convergent, disturbances tend to be reinforced. </p>
<p>In our dancing example, one person making the wrong steps might lead some neighbours astray, who may then lead some of their neighbours astray and so on. </p>
<p>These chains of potential disturbances are like walks on the network. When those disturbances propagate through multiple neighbours and then converge on one person, that person is going to be much more likely to copy the out-of-sync moves than if only one of their neighbours was offbeat.</p>
<h2>Social networks, power grids and beyond</h2>
<p>So networks with many convergent walks are prone to poorer synchronisation. This is good news for the brain avoiding epilepsy, as its highly modular structure brings a high proportion of convergent walks. </p>
<p>We can see this reflected in the echo chamber phenomenon in social media. Tightly coupled subgroups reinforcing their own messages can synchronise themselves well, but may fall far out of step with the wider population.</p>
<p>Our results bring a new understanding to how synchronisation functions in different natural network structures. It opens new opportunities in terms of designing network structures or interventions on networks, either to aid synchronisation (in power grids, say) or to avoid synchronisation (say in the brain).</p>
<p>More widely, it represents a major step forward in our understanding of how the structure of complex networks affects their behaviour and capabilities. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/synchrony-with-chaos-blinking-lights-of-a-firefly-swarm-embody-in-nature-what-mathematics-predicted-193984">Synchrony with chaos – blinking lights of a firefly swarm embody in nature what mathematics predicted</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/212708/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joseph Lizier received funding from the Australian Research Council which partially funded this research.</span></em></p>
Some natural systems seem to effortlessly synchronise themselves, even in the face of heavy disturbances. A new study has found the factor that makes it possible.
Joseph Lizier, Associate Professor of Complex Systems, University of Sydney
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/194727
2022-12-14T13:13:33Z
2022-12-14T13:13:33Z
Social media always remembers – which makes moving on from a breakup that much harder
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500465/original/file-20221212-112102-qh64s7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=460%2C360%2C4498%2C3334&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">There's no playbook for how to navigate breakups in the digital age.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/broken-heart-on-screen-royalty-free-image/1307271698?phrase=digital heart break&adppopup=true">Sean Gladwell/Moment via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before the internet, people <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98REWkLwnQM&ab_channel=manbehindthescreen">commonly burned</a> Polaroids and love letters in a fire as an act of closure following a breakup. </p>
<p>Nowadays, it isn’t so simple. People produce and consume massive amounts of digital stuff – <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-data-explained-how-much-were-producing-and-where-its-all-stored-159964">33 trillion gigabytes</a> of online data in 2018 alone, a number that has surely grown.</p>
<p>Even as more and more of daily life is experienced and documented online, there’s no playbook for how to navigate breakups in the digital age. In the past, if bonfires weren’t your thing, you could simply throw out love letters, gifts and photographs, or put them in a box and store them in the attic – out of sight and out of mind. </p>
<p>Now, as you scroll through your accounts, you might find yourself returning to your own memories – including reminders of your former partners, which live on long after the dissolution of a relationship.</p>
<p>As communication researchers, we’ve conducted a series of studies investigating how people decide whether to keep or delete something following the end of a romantic relationship – and how these decisions affect their ability to move on.</p>
<h2>Relationship ‘cleansing’</h2>
<p>In some of our <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0265407514524848">earlier research</a> – all the way back in 2013 – we studied how people used social media after a breakup.</p>
<p>We found that they often carried out what we call “relational cleansing” by hiding their relational status, deleting photos or scrubbing old social media posts. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305116680004">another study</a>, we found that people who spent a good deal of time looking at old digital photos of their relationships and those who monitored their previous partners on social media following a breakup had a harder time moving on.</p>
<p>To explore these findings in more depth, we conducted a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0265407520921460">follow-up study</a> that looked at whether keeping or deleting virtual objects following a breakup helped people move on and emotionally recover following the end of their relationship.</p>
<p>We found that <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-psychological-benefits-and-trappings-of-nostalgia-77766">people who were more nostalgic</a> – that is, those who tended to have a sentimental longing for the past – were more likely to keep digital objects from their previous relationship, and that preserving those objects tended to make it harder to adjust to the relationship’s end.</p>
<p>In the analysis of the results, we speculated that when people continually revisit these digital memories, they’re unable to fully detach from the relationship. </p>
<p>Based on this research we came up with a model called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/ct/qtac018">Virtual Relational Memory</a>. Specifically, we suggest that individuals going through a breakup consider three components of their digital lives: objects, stories and networks.</p>
<h2>To purge or not to purge?</h2>
<p>In relationships, people produce a trove of digital objects, such as messages and photos, that represent and document their relationships.</p>
<p>Those happy and joyous photos of past anniversaries and trips linger in online photo albums long after the relationship ends. </p>
<p>Because many of these digital objects are distributed across platforms and accounts – many of which people don’t have access to – they’re more likely to persist. Old photos memories can algorithmically appear at inopportune times, too, spurring unanticipated thoughts about your partner. </p>
<p>Still, you can exert some control over whether to <a href="https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/2470654.2466241">delete or keep</a> the memories you have access to.</p>
<p>By keeping the objects, maybe you can continue to reflect on the relationship, prompting personal growth. By deleting them, perhaps you can more quickly move on from your previous partner and prepare for your next relationship. </p>
<h2>Losing control of the narrative</h2>
<p>Beyond considering how to manage things like photos and old messages, people going through a breakup should also think about the narrative, or story, of the breakup. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261927X13516865">stories people tell about their breakups</a> are powerful reminders of their relationships. But they also help people reconcile and move on to new ones. </p>
<p>When a relationship ends, people often construct a story, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0163853X.2019.1627647">that story varies for different audiences</a>. When your parents ask why you broke up, you might tell a story about your differing life goals. When your friends ask why you broke up, you might tell a story about your inability to manage conflict. </p>
<p>Social media complicates the story-creation process, because it is more difficult to construct distinct stories for different audiences. For instance, some people have both a main Instagram account and a “<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-teens-use-fake-instagram-accounts-to-relieve-the-pressure-of-perfection-92105">Finsta</a>” that presents their more authentic identity. Someone who shares the gritty details of their breakup on their finsta would have a difficult time reconciling that version of the narrative with the one they present on their more curated main profile. </p>
<p>Also, people tend to change the story they tell about breakups over time as they move on from a relationship. Their story might evolve to be less hostile to their partner, or more accepting of the need for the end of the relationship. When people are exposed to virtual objects such as old photos or texts, their narratives can quickly revert back to the stories they created shortly after the relationship ended.</p>
<h2>Adapting your network</h2>
<p>Next, it’s important to think about your network, which refers to the connections in which our relationships are embedded. </p>
<p>When you’re in a relationship, you often connect with your partner’s family members and friends on Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat. Those networks often linger following the end of the relationship unless you make an active effort to disconnect. </p>
<p>You may ask yourself whether you really care what your previous boyfriend’s childhood best friend is doing on vacation. Even worse, your previous partner could appear in those very vacation photos.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Blocks with silhouettes of people connected by strings." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500470/original/file-20221212-108656-ltinl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/500470/original/file-20221212-108656-ltinl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500470/original/file-20221212-108656-ltinl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500470/original/file-20221212-108656-ltinl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500470/original/file-20221212-108656-ltinl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500470/original/file-20221212-108656-ltinl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/500470/original/file-20221212-108656-ltinl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Unfollowing your ex on social media is straightforward enough. But what about their friends?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/teamwork-and-network-concept-male-icons-on-wooden-royalty-free-image/1314937779">aydinynr/iStock via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The persistence of these networks makes ending relationships harder. In a sense, these networks act as a brain, archiving virtual memories through social connections that can be reactivated by the social network. </p>
<p>Although research into the effects of these factors is ongoing, especially as technology continues to evolve, we suggest that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/08824096.2020.1796617">people think carefully</a> about which objects, stories and networks they want to retain, and which they want to jettison. Though tentative, the findings across our studies suggest that people who selectively keep some objects and delete others fare better following a breakup than those who obsessively keep or delete. In other words, everything in moderation.</p>
<p>Perhaps, as country singer Sam Hunt put it, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvnY6qn80u0&ab_channel=SamHuntVEVO">breaking up was easier in the 1990s</a>. But that doesn’t mean you can’t reassert control over how you want to move on – and decide which digital relics of your relationships to preserve and which to purge for good.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/194727/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
There was once a time when you could simply put old photos and love letters out of sight and out of mind. Editing your ex out of your digital life is a lot trickier.
Kate G. Blackburn, Post Doctoral Researcher, The University of Texas at Austin
Leah E. LeFebvre, Associate Professor of Communication Studies, University of Alabama
Nick Brody, Associate Professor of Communication Studies, University of Puget Sound
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/184724
2022-08-02T16:11:03Z
2022-08-02T16:11:03Z
What epilepsy teaches us about diversity and resilience
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/476338/original/file-20220727-1405-kljymn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=26%2C33%2C4466%2C2957&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Epilepsy is characterized by spontaneous and recurrent seizures, often triggered by stress or visual stimuli.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>There is a growing recognition of the importance of equity, diversity and inclusion in society and its institutions. The most progressive, leading-edge organizations consider the diversity of people to be <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-board-secretariat/corporate/reports/building-diverse-inclusive-public-service-final-report-joint-union-management-task-force-diversity-inclusion.html">essential to the success, growth, innovation and development of a society</a>.</p>
<p>The benefits of diversity, however, are far from exclusive to human organizations; heterogeneity and variability are design principles central to all complex natural systems, whether they are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/3421529">ecological, cellular or genetic networks</a>.</p>
<p>Whether we are talking about an ecosystem, society or the brain, how does this diversity relate to the functioning and stability of a complex system?</p>
<p>As neuroscientists, our interdisciplinary research and clinical work has drawn us to the incredible complexity and richness of the human brain and natural systems. We seek not only to better understand how the brain’s circuitry works, but also to develop new treatments for neurological diseases such as epilepsy.</p>
<h2>Diversity means resilience</h2>
<p><a href="https://tile.loc.gov/storage-services/service/rbc/rbctos/2017gen17473/2017gen17473.pdf">First developed by Darwin</a>, the idea that diversity leads to stability and survival has been <a href="https://www.hindawi.com/journals/complexity/2018/3421529/">debated by scientists from many disciplines for over a century</a>. The ability of natural systems to resist change is a characteristic known as resilience. This fundamental characteristic emerges from interactions between members of the same system — such as species in an ecosystem, individuals in a group or cells in an organism — and enables it to maintain its functions over time.</p>
<p>Resilience is tested by change. Some ecosystems can adapt to the extinction of specific species or to drought. Some virtual communities or social networks can withstand cyberattacks. Some organizations can continue to operate in the wake of conflict, war, political revolution or … pandemic. </p>
<p>In light of these common examples — and many others related to the social or natural sciences — it is now more important than ever to understand the role played by diversity in maintaining the resilience of complex systems.</p>
<p>What if clues to the answer lie in the circuits of the brain, specifically in a brain with epilepsy?</p>
<h2>Tipping over in an electrical storm</h2>
<p>For several years, our interdisciplinary team has been studying epilepsy, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1528-1157.43.s.6.1.x">the most common severe neurological disorder</a>. Epilepsy is characterized primarily by the apparently spontaneous and recurrent occurrence of seizures, often triggered by stress or visual stimuli (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2017.03.067">such as flashing lights or specific images</a>). Recent research has also shown that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02577-y">the frequency of these seizures can vary with the time of day or month</a>, depending on the individual’s sleep-wake cycle, for example.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466391/original/file-20220531-22-o8z5oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="woman holding herself against a wall with one hand and her head with the other while she appears to be having a seizure" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466391/original/file-20220531-22-o8z5oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466391/original/file-20220531-22-o8z5oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466391/original/file-20220531-22-o8z5oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466391/original/file-20220531-22-o8z5oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466391/original/file-20220531-22-o8z5oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466391/original/file-20220531-22-o8z5oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/466391/original/file-20220531-22-o8z5oe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Epilepsy is the most common serious neurological disorder.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In this light, a brain with epilepsy can be seen as fragile and not resilient, regularly tipping into an electrical storm. Thus, rather than adapting normally to changes, neurons become disproportionately active and synchronous, and the resulting intense electrical activity spreads, disrupting brain function.</p>
<p>Because of the significant impact of these seizures on patients and their families, our team has been relentlessly studying the circuits responsible for triggering them and exploring ways to prevent them.</p>
<p>What does diversity have to do with epilepsy? Our team recently measured the activity of neurons in people with epilepsy. We found that neurons in the brain regions responsible for triggering seizures <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.celrep.2022.110863">were much less diverse than those in regions not responsible for seizures</a>. These neurons were strangely similar to each other, showing highly similar characteristics and responses.</p>
<p>Could this lack of diversity explain why seizure-prone brains are less resilient?</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1529117822298775553"}"></div></p>
<h2>Mathematical models to the rescue</h2>
<p>To answer this complex question, we turned to mathematics. What if, through mathematical models of brain circuitry, we could understand how neural diversity (or the lack thereof) predicts seizure resilience? Could we determine whether neuronal diversity promotes resilience in the brain?</p>
<p>Using our equations, we found that when diversity was too low, seizure-like activity would spontaneously emerge: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.celrep.2022.110863">the activity of the neurons would become vulnerable to sudden change in synchrony</a>, reminiscent of what we observe during seizures. These results are unequivocal: low diversity made these neuronal circuits fragile, poorly resilient and unable to maintain the type of activity required to preserve brain function.</p>
<p>What do these result mean? They provide key insights about the role played by different types of neurons in maintaining brain function. </p>
<p>These results are helping us look at neurological diseases such as epilepsy differently than we did before, potentially opening up new avenues on how to treat them. Our approach of using interdisciplinary methods and mathematics allows us to go further and understand better how diversity increases resilience, providing invaluable cues and answering hard questions such as: Is there an optimal level of diversity? What are the different types of diversities and do they all promote stability equally? Could we enhance resilience by promoting neuronal diversity through targeted therapeutic interventions?</p>
<p>Most importantly, our results also provide a powerful reminder of the primordial role diversity plays in the robustness of systems in the face of change: which holds true not only for neurons and circuits, but for humans and collectives as well. Variety truly is the spice of life.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/184724/count.gif" alt="La Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jérémie Lefebvre has received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Taufik A. Valiante has received funding from the Krembil Brain Institute, and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC).</span></em></p>
Our team studied the activity of neurons in people with epilepsy. Neurons in the brain regions responsible for triggering seizures were much less diverse.
Jérémie Lefebvre, Professeur agrégé de neurosciences computationnelles et neurophysiologie, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa
Taufik A. Valiante, Neurosurgeon/neuroscientist, University of Toronto
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/179064
2022-07-21T12:24:22Z
2022-07-21T12:24:22Z
From in-crowds to power couples, network science uncovers the hidden structure of community dynamics
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474376/original/file-20220715-26-7p5uhp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C9%2C6240%2C4138&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Can you tell who in this picture wields soft power? A new technique for analyzing networks can.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/group-of-business-people-in-convention-center-royalty-free-image/1179435810">gremlin/E+ via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world is a networked place, literally and figuratively. The field of network science is used today to understand phenomena as diverse as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/2872518.2890092">spread of misinformation</a>, <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2016/10/10/mapping-west-african-trade-networks/">West African trade</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/nbt0108-69">protein-protein interactions</a> in cells.</p>
<p>Network science has uncovered several <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/30918">universal properties</a> of complex social networks, which in turn has made it possible to learn details of particular networks. For example, the network consisting of the international financial corruption scheme uncovered by the <a href="https://panamapapers.org/">Panama Papers investigation</a> has an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00313-y">unusual lack of connections among its parts</a>.</p>
<p>But understanding the hidden structures of key elements of social networks, such as subgroups, has remained elusive. My colleagues and I have found two complex patterns in these networks that can help researchers better understand the hierarchies and dynamics of these elements. We found a way to detect powerful “inner circles” in large organizations simply by studying networks that map emails being sent among employees. </p>
<p>We demonstrated the utility of our methods by applying them to the famous Enron network. Enron was an energy trading company that <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/02/us/enron-fast-facts/index.html">perpetrated fraud on a massive scale</a>. Our <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2203.06491">study</a> further showed that the method can potentially be used to detect people who wield enormous soft power in an organization regardless of their official title or position. This could be useful for historical, sociological and economic research, as well as government, legal and media investigations.</p>
<h2>From pencil and paper to artificial intelligence</h2>
<p>Sociologists have been constructing and studying smaller social networks in careful field experiments for <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2785266">at least 80 years</a>, well before the advent of the internet and online social networks. The concept is so simple that it can be drawn on paper: Entities of interest – people, businesses, countries – are nodes represented as points, and relationships between pairs of nodes are links represented as lines drawn between the points. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451706/original/file-20220312-14-o2rnnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two sets of dots with lines connecting some of the dots" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451706/original/file-20220312-14-o2rnnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451706/original/file-20220312-14-o2rnnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451706/original/file-20220312-14-o2rnnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451706/original/file-20220312-14-o2rnnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=313&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451706/original/file-20220312-14-o2rnnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451706/original/file-20220312-14-o2rnnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451706/original/file-20220312-14-o2rnnt.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An abstract network, at left, shows lines between points representing relationships. The network on the right shows a small fragment of a real-world network of West African traders, based on data from Oliver J. Walther. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2015.1010152.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mayank Kejriwal</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Using network science to study human societies and other complex systems took on new meaning in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.286.5439.509">the late 1990s</a> when researchers discovered some universal properties of networks. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/30918">Some of these universal properties</a> have since entered mainstream pop culture. One concept is the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, based on the famous empirical finding that any two people on Earth are <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2786545">six or fewer links apart</a>. Similarly, versions of statements such as “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0086197">the rich get richer</a>” and “<a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2786545">winner takes all</a>” have also been replicated in some networks. </p>
<p>These global properties, meaning ones applying to the entire network, seemingly emerge from the myopic and local actions of independent nodes. When I connect with someone on LinkedIn, I am certainly not thinking of the global consequences of my connection on the LinkedIn network. Yet my actions, along with those of many others, eventually lead to predictable, rather than random, outcomes about how the network will evolve. </p>
<p>My colleagues and I have used network science to study <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00275-1">human trafficking in the U.K.</a>, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-019-0154-z">structure of noise</a> in artificial intelligence systems’ outputs, and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00313-y">financial corruption</a> in the Panama Papers.</p>
<h2>Groups have their own structure</h2>
<p>Along with studying emergent properties like the Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, researchers have also used network science to focus on problems such as <a href="https://senseable.mit.edu/community_detection/">community detection</a>. Stated simply, can a set of rules, otherwise known as an algorithm, automatically discover groups or communities within a collection of people?</p>
<p>Today there are hundreds, if not thousands, of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jnca.2018.02.011">community detection algorithms</a>, some relying on advanced AI methods. They are used for many purposes, including finding communities of interest and uncovering malicious groups on social media. Such algorithms encode intuitive assumptions, such as the expectation that nodes belonging to the same group are more densely connected to one another than nodes belonging to different groups. </p>
<p>Although an exciting line of work, community detection does not study the internal structure of communities. Should communities be thought of only as collections of nodes in networks? And what about communities that are small but particularly influential, such as inner circles and in-crowds?</p>
<h2>Two hypothetical structures for influential groups</h2>
<p>In a manner of speaking, you likely already have some inkling of the structure of very small groups in social networks. The truth of the adage that “a friend of my friend is also my friend” can be tested statistically in friendship networks by counting the number of triangles in the network and determining whether this number is higher than chance alone could explain. And indeed, many social network studies have been used to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax7310">verify the claim</a>. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, the concept starts breaking down when extended to groups with more than three members. Although motifs have been well studied in both algorithmic <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpdc.2011.08.007">computer science</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-801213-0.00001-0">biology</a>, they have not been reliably linked to influential groups in real communication networks.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451707/original/file-20220312-26-1xiy0uc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="six sets of four dots each with different configurations of lines connecting the dots" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451707/original/file-20220312-26-1xiy0uc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/451707/original/file-20220312-26-1xiy0uc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451707/original/file-20220312-26-1xiy0uc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451707/original/file-20220312-26-1xiy0uc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=274&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451707/original/file-20220312-26-1xiy0uc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451707/original/file-20220312-26-1xiy0uc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/451707/original/file-20220312-26-1xiy0uc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=344&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Six examples of motifs with four nodes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mayank Kejriwal</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Building on this tradition, my doctoral student <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=-D05LWQAAAAJ&view_op=list_works&sortby=pubdate">Ke Shen</a> and I found and <a href="https://aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI-22/ws22workshops/#ws19">presented</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2203.06491">two structures that seem elaborate</a> but turn out to be quite common in real networks.</p>
<p>The first structure extends the triangle, not by adding more nodes, but by directly adding triangles. Specifically, there is a central triangle that is flanked by other peripheral triangles. Importantly, the third person in any peripheral triangle must not be linked to the third person on the central triangle, thereby excluding them from the true inner circle of influence. </p>
<p>The second structure is similar but assumes that there is no central triangle, and the inner circle is just a pair of nodes. A real-life example might be two co-founders of a startup like Sergey Brin and Larry Page of Google, or a power couple with joint interests, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/28/world/americas/president-spouses-politics-dynasty.html">common in global politics</a>, like Bill and Hillary Clinton.</p>
<h2>Understanding influential groups in an infamous network</h2>
<p>We tested our hypothesis on the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10691898.2015.11889734">Enron email network</a>, which is well studied in network science, with nodes representing email addresses and links representing communication among those addresses. Despite being elaborate, not only were our proposed structures present in the network in greater numbers than chance alone would predict, but a qualitative analysis showed that there is merit to the claim that they represent influential groups.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474985/original/file-20220719-10005-7ornip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two diagrams of overlapping sets of triangles labeled with names of people" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474985/original/file-20220719-10005-7ornip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/474985/original/file-20220719-10005-7ornip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474985/original/file-20220719-10005-7ornip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474985/original/file-20220719-10005-7ornip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=248&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474985/original/file-20220719-10005-7ornip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474985/original/file-20220719-10005-7ornip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/474985/original/file-20220719-10005-7ornip.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=311&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Examples of the two structures found in the Enron network. More such structures are present in the network and cannot be explained by chance alone.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Mayank Kejriwal</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The main characters in the Enron saga are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB114123416916986639">well</a> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/20/books/chapters/power-failure.html">documented</a> by now. Intriguingly, some of these characters do not seem to have had much official influence but may have wielded significant <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2390947">soft power</a>. An example is Sherri Reinartz-Sera, who was the longtime administrative assistant of Jeffrey K. Skilling, the former chief executive of Enron. Unlike Skilling, Sera was only mentioned in a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/19/business/exenron-chief-executive-prepares-for-trial.html">New York Times article</a> following investigative reporting that took place during the course of the scandal. However, our algorithm discovered an influential group with Sera occupying a central position.</p>
<h2>Dissecting power dynamics</h2>
<p>Society has intricate structures at the levels of individuals, friendships and communities. In-crowds are not just ragtag groups of characters talking to one another, or a single ringleader calling all the shots. Many in-crowds, or influential groups, have a sophisticated structure. </p>
<p>While much still remains to be discovered about such groups and their influence, network science can help uncover their complexity.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179064/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mayank Kejriwal receives funding from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). </span></em></p>
A mathematical method of analyzing networks can spot hidden features such as people who wield soft power in organizations.
Mayank Kejriwal, Research Assistant Professor of Industrial & Systems Engineering, University of Southern California
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/171651
2021-11-15T18:32:52Z
2021-11-15T18:32:52Z
Got $1.2T to invest in roads and other infrastructure? Here’s how to figure out how to spend it wisely
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/431755/original/file-20211112-15225-1ya3u2g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=458%2C188%2C5005%2C3448&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A collapsed bridge in Atlanta in 2017 backed up traffic for a month.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/OverpassCollapseFire/d398f5f0405b4ed8b2fc406ed30fade5/photo?Query=atlanta%20bridge%20collapse&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=75&currentItemNo=0">AP Photo/David Goldman</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The American economy is underpinned by networks. </p>
<p>Road networks carry traffic and freight; the internet and telecommunications networks carry our voices and digital information; the electricity grid is a network carrying energy; financial networks transfer money from bank accounts to merchants. These networks are vast, often global systems – but a local disruption can really block them up. </p>
<p>For example, <a href="http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/gdot-state-offering-31m-in-incentives-to-reopen-i-85-before-june/511832846">the I-85 bridge collapse in Atlanta in 2017</a> snarled that city’s traffic for months. In 2019, <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/04/03/report-the-u-s-has-over-47000-structurally-deficient-bridges-infographic/?sh=341754a44bdc">a concrete beam fell from a bridge</a> in Chattanooga, Tennessee, resulting in traffic shutdown on one of the nation’s busiest interstate intersections. And in 2021, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/02/us/ida-train-stranded-ny-nj/index.html">Hurricane Ida crippled mass transit in New York City</a>, with flash floods overcoming subway lines and trapping people overnight on trains.</p>
<p>As the U.S. government <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/whats-bipartisan-us-1-trillion-infrastructure-bill-2021-10-01/">prepares to spend over $1 trillion on infrastructure projects</a> over the next 10 years, it will be vital to identify which elements are the most crucial to repair or improve. This is important not only for maximizing benefits; it’s also useful in preventing disaster. </p>
<p>Is there, perhaps, a telecommunication line whose destruction would be particularly damaging? Or one road through an area that has an especially large role in keeping traffic flowing smoothly?</p>
<p><a href="http://greatvalley.psu.edu/person/qiang-patrick-qiang">Patrick Qiang</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ecFsBp0AAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">and I</a> are operations management scholars who have developed <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10898-007-9198-1">a way to evaluate network performance</a> and simulate the effects of potential changes, whether planned – like a highway repair – or unexpected – like a natural disaster. </p>
<p>By modeling the independent behavior of all the users of a network, we can calculate the flow – of <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10898-015-0371-7">freight</a>, <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/79/38005">commuters</a>, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77958-2_14">money</a> or anything else – across each link, and how other links’ flows will change. This lets us identify where investment will be most beneficial, and which projects shouldn’t happen at all.</p>
<h2>More isn’t always better</h2>
<p>It’s very difficult to measure networks’ performance, in part because they are so complex, but also because people use them differently at different times, and because those choices affect others’ experiences. For example, one person choosing to drive to work instead of taking the bus puts one more car on the road, which might get involved in a crash or otherwise contribute to a traffic jam.</p>
<p>In 1968, German mathematician Dietrich Braess observed the possibility that adding a road to an area with congested traffic <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.1050.0127">could actually make things worse</a>, not better. <a href="https://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu/braess/braess-new.html">This paradox</a> can occur when travel times depend on the amount of traffic. If too many drivers decide their own optimal route involves one particular road, that road can become congested, slowing everyone’s travel time. In effect, the drivers would have been better off if the road hadn’t been built.</p>
<p>This phenomenon has been found not only <a href="https://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu/braess/braess-new.html#BraessArticle">in transportation networks</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1239/jap/1032374242">the internet</a>, but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/115/28004">in electrical circuits</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. shouldn’t waste time and money building or repairing network links a community would be better without. But how can policymakers tell which elements help and which make things worse? </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8mlH9bnvWVE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Explaining the Braess paradox.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Calculating efficiency</h2>
<p>The best networks can handle the highest demand at the lowest average cost for each trip – such as a commute from a worker’s home to their office. </p>
<p>Evaluating a network means identifying which locations need to be connected to one another, as well as the volume of traffic among specific places and the various costs involved – such as gas, pavement wear and tear and police services keeping drivers safe.</p>
<p>Once a network is measured in this way, it can be converted into a computerized model with which we can simulate removing links or adding new ones in particular places. Then we can measure what happens to the rest of the network: Does traffic get more congested, and if so, by how much? Or, as in the Braess paradox, do travel times actually get shorter when a link is removed? And how much money does a particular project cost to build and save in time or user expenses?</p>
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<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="With the White House in the distance, President Biden speaks at a lectern before a crowd of people" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432073/original/file-20211115-23-1psza3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/432073/original/file-20211115-23-1psza3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432073/original/file-20211115-23-1psza3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432073/original/file-20211115-23-1psza3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432073/original/file-20211115-23-1psza3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432073/original/file-20211115-23-1psza3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/432073/original/file-20211115-23-1psza3q.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">President Biden celebrated signing the bipartisan infrastructure bill on Nov. 15.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Biden/c2622af4cdc44114ad250ac56a49a76d/photo?Query=biden&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=63707&currentItemNo=9">AP Photo/Susan Walsh</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Going global</h2>
<p>Our method of measuring a network’s performance has been used to refine
<a href="https://ercim-news.ercim.eu/en79/rd/route-optimization-how-efficient-will-the-proposed-north-dublin-metro-be">the route of a proposed metro line in Dublin, Ireland</a>; <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313365965_Maritime_Network_Efficiency_Comparison_in_Indonesia_Nusantara_Pendulum_and_Sea_Tollway">to design new shipping routes in Indonesia</a>; to identify which roads in Germany <a href="http://www.cedim.de/download/14_Schulz.pdf">should be first on the maintenance list</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0896-3">to determine the effects of road closures after major fires in regions of Greece</a>.</p>
<p>Our method has also been applied to make supply chains more efficient, both to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84882-634-2_6">maximize profits</a> and to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856412000249">speed disaster relief supplies</a> to people in need.</p>
<p>As the U.S. works to enhance its economic competitiveness, we believe the country will need to invest in many different types of networks to maximize their usefulness and value to Americans. Using measurement methods like ours can guide leaders to wise investments.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/calculating-where-america-should-invest-in-its-transportation-and-communications-networks-76258">article originally published</a> on April 19, 2017.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/171651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Nagurney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
As President Biden signs the bipartisan infrastructure bill, it’s important to determine which road, freight and information networks are the most vital to protect.
Anna Nagurney, Eugene M. Isenberg Chair in Integrative Studies, UMass Amherst
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/153418
2021-01-28T17:31:59Z
2021-01-28T17:31:59Z
Memes like Bernie Sanders’ mittens spread through networks the same way viruses spread through populations
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/380936/original/file-20210127-19-a69qsm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=9%2C0%2C2059%2C1377&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. Bernie Sanders (far right) attended the 59th Presidential Inauguration at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 20, 2021.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Caroline Brehman/Pool via AP)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>None of us escaped the Bernie Sanders mitten memes following President Joe Biden’s inauguration. <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/bernie-sanders-photographer-1118174/">The photographer Brendan Smialowski captured the image of Sen. Sanders seated at the inauguration that went viral</a>, resulting in an explosion of thousands of memes that spread rapidly across the world.</p>
<p>Memes aside, we are in the middle of a deadly global pandemic, unlike anything we’ve faced in modern times. At the time of writing, <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?">there are more than 100 million COVID-19 cases and two million deaths worldwide</a>. When a person becomes infected with COVID-19, they may infect others physically close to them at their home, workplace or in a crowded public space. Despite mitigating efforts such as physical distancing and face masks, new hotspots of infection may readily appear.</p>
<p>Over the past year, we’ve heard a lot in the news cycle about epidemiology, focusing on the science of how infections spread in populations. Terms like the “R number” and “exponential spread” are <a href="https://www.dictionary.com/e/coronavirus-words/">now part of our everyday lexicon</a>. Close physical interactions between people are the cause of the spread of viruses like COVID-19 through social networks.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CKc4E39pFAZ","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<h2>Physical and digital networks</h2>
<p>Networks permeate our lives at every level, from the interactions of proteins in our cells to our followers on social media and Bitcoin transactions. Over the past 20 years, a sizeable interdisciplinary field emerged to study what makes networks tick. Network science focuses on the modelling and mining of networks, informed by mathematics, physics and computational sciences.</p>
<p>Networks are collections of dots called <em>nodes</em> and lines called <em>edges</em> representing interactions between objects. Imagine a network with nodes representing people in a city and edges formed by those within two metres apart. Such a contact network maps how contagions like COVID-19 spread. </p>
<p>For a different example, consider accounts on Twitter as nodes, with edges linking to those accounts’ followers. We may then visualize Twitter as a network with <a href="https://blog.hootsuite.com/twitter-demographics/">340 million nodes</a>, swarming with tens of billions of edges. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration showing the connections between nodes or items in a network" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=357&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379193/original/file-20210118-13-1qso5l5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=448&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In a network, nodes are linked by edges. Darker nodes in the figure have more edges.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Burning networks</h2>
<p>If a person becomes infected with COVID-19, they can infect those close to them. From there, the virus may spread to others in their contact network. A challenge with modelling a viral outbreak is that infections do not spread from one person alone <a href="https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-09-coronavirus-world.html">but from many sources</a>. Without mitigation, contagion is analogous to a fire burning up a dry forest, wreaking havoc across large areas. </p>
<p>How can we measure the speed of contagion in a network? Viruses and memes inspired the idea of <em>network burning</em>, <a href="https://www.internetmathematicsjournal.com/article/1599-how-to-burn-a-graph">which measures the speed at which contagion spreads between nodes</a>. </p>
<p>Burning spreads over discrete time-steps, and one new source of burning appears at each step of the process. The latter part is an essential feature: multiple sources pop up anywhere in the network over time. The process ends when every node is burning; for example, the process ends if every person in a population catches COVID-19.</p>
<p>From Bernie Sander’s mittens to Baby Yoda or Mike Pence’s fly, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/viral/dancing-pallbearers-mike-pence-fly-pretty-best-friends-here-are-n1252118">memes appear and spread quickly through social networks such as Facebook, Instagram and Twitter</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mike-pences-fly-from-renaissance-portraits-to-salvador-dali-artists-used-flies-to-make-a-point-about-appearances-147815">Mike Pence's fly: From Renaissance portraits to Salvador Dalí, artists used flies to make a point about appearances</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>When it comes to viral memes, if a user posts a meme on Instagram, it shows up in their followers’ home feed. From there, it appears in the feeds of followers of those followers and outwards from there. </p>
<p>Our intuition is that a few hops are enough to reach anyone on social media, and algorithms prove that right. <a href="https://research.fb.com/blog/2016/02/three-and-a-half-degrees-of-separation/">A 2016 study suggests it only takes four hops on average to connect any two accounts on Facebook</a>. The small world of social networks predicts that popular memes would then reach most accounts in short order. </p>
<p>The minimum number of steps needed to burn every node is called the <em>burning number</em> of the network. We can think of the burning number as a quantitative measure of how fast contagion spreads. The smaller the burning number is, the faster contagion spreads in the network. </p>
<h2>Dining in is better for you</h2>
<p>Imagine nine diners at a restaurant sitting in close quarters at a round table. In that case, we have a <em>clique</em> network, in which every node links to every other one. If one person carries COVID-19, then the chances are high that all the guests will be infected because they are all within the two-metre range of the infected individual. The burning number of a clique is 1, the lowest it can be.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration showing the connections between nine people sitting around a table" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=768&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/379194/original/file-20210118-19-14x2r45.PNG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=965&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A clique and line-up with nine nodes are shown. In the clique at the top representing diners at a table, the burning spreads in one step from the node 1. Burning a lineup with nine nodes takes three steps. In the first step, node 1 is burned. In the second step, burning spreads to the left and right of node 1 and we also burn node 2. In the last step, we burn node 3, and the burning spreads to every node.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In contrast, think of a lineup at a grocery store with one person infected. The infection potentially spreads only to those directly in front or behind them because the distance from one end of the line to the other is too large for the virus to spread. </p>
<p>For example, in a lineup with nine people, if someone in the middle is infected, it would take four steps to infect everyone. If the infected person is at the end of the line, it takes eight steps. In either case, the spread is slower than for our unlucky, hypothetical diners. </p>
<p>Network burning predicts that lineups are among the slowest kinds of networks for the spread of contagion. If there are <em>n</em> people in a lineup, the burning number is the square root of <em>n</em>. So if nine people are in line, the burning number is three, which is the minimum number of people who must be infected to spread the disease fastest to everyone in the line.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.internetmathematicsjournal.com/article/1599-how-to-burn-a-graph">A math conjecture predicts that in any possible network with <em>n</em> nodes, the burning number is at most the square root of <em>n</em></a>. While no one has proven that conjecture yet, the best-known result is that the burning number of a network is at most the square root of 1.5 times <em>n</em>. </p>
<p>The difference between the square root of n and the square root of 1.5 times <em>n</em> may not seem large, but the gap between them grows considerably for large <em>n</em>. If <em>n</em> is the world’s population of 7.8 billion, then the square root of <em>n</em> is about 88,318, and the square root of 1.5 times <em>n</em> is 108,167. </p>
<h2>What the math tells us</h2>
<p>Burning networks gives us a simplified but concise view of how contagion propagates in a network, and a measure of how rapidly contagion spreads to each node. While network burning doesn’t directly tell us how to slow the spread of a virus or halt a meme, it highlights that our interactions significantly affect our exposure to contagion. </p>
<p>How networks of interactions are wired has a profound impact on viral outbreaks, a fact especially relevant during these times. Remember that the next time you are in a physically distanced lineup. You are doing your part to slow the spread of COVID-19. And good luck avoiding the next breaking meme.</p>
<p>The math tells us so.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/153418/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Bonato receives funding from NSERC. </span></em></p>
Our social connections and interactions form networks. Studying these networks reveal the ways in which both memes and viruses travel through populations
Anthony Bonato, Professor of Mathematics, Toronto Metropolitan University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/136002
2020-04-17T13:37:29Z
2020-04-17T13:37:29Z
Green zones: a mathematical proposal for how to exit from the COVID-19 lockdown
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/328633/original/file-20200417-152558-1ckjo2a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=49%2C1224%2C3658%2C2449&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Paweł Czerwiński/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has put the world to the test. Never before have we been so aware of the many ways we come into contact with innumerable others. We have been forced to reassess and retrain common habits, from the handshake to the simple act of opening a door.</p>
<p>This is because the virus spreads via physical proximity: direct contact between people (handshakes, kisses and hugs), coughs, or even touching objects with contaminated droplets. The sum of all of these contacts forms a large and dynamic network – just like Facebook maps out our social interactions online. Disconnecting or weakening this extensive network is the key purpose of social distancing measures, currently experienced across the world.</p>
<p>How we come out of lockdown is the next challenge. It is important to avoid a resurgence of the virus while minimising the societal and economic damage. Proposals range from creating <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-can-herd-immunity-really-protect-us-133583">herd immunity</a> to keeping the lockdown intact until the development of a treatment or <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52308201">vaccination</a>. </p>
<p>We are part of a group of mathematicians and economists specialising in modelling random and uncertain situations. We propose an exit strategy that mitigates the health risks of the former, and the social and economic risks of the latter. This is in line with other ideas such as keeping limitations only for high-risk groups.</p>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.esade.edu/itemsweb/wi/research/ecpol/EsadeEcPol_Insigth6_Exit_Strategy.pdf">recently published proposal</a> is based on two key elements. First, identifying green zones, meaning areas where the sanitary system is operational, the growth rate of infections is low and the future risks appear manageable. And second, progressively joining these green zones together once it is safe to do so.</p>
<h2>Zoning</h2>
<p>The purpose of lockdown is to partition the world population into disconnected sub-networks, between which movement is limited. But such partitions are far from complete.</p>
<p>In France, where we are based, people are asked to stay <a href="https://mobile.interieur.gouv.fr/Actualites/L-actu-du-Ministere/Attestation-de-deplacement-et-de-voyage?fbclid=IwAR06BU-Qzq4ArxO5gDLJ3ueDwjqcbIU_xerTmhz8tBpkqcqzrmTSYPQlGlY">within 1km of their homes</a>. Although such a measure significantly slows down the spread, the virus can still travel through the entire network. In a city like Paris, two people who are 2km apart may still share the same grocery shop, and so everyone in this 10km city is connected within five degrees of separation.</p>
<p>Instead of enforcing a radius of movement for each individual, as is the case in France, we propose that it would work better if people were allowed to move within disconnected areas, such as counties, towns, or boroughs. Obviously, such a division would be easier to enforce between separate towns than between boroughs of one single town. Division between some zones may therefore need to be legally enforced, while divisions between other zones merely recommended. This would, of course, represent a step up in state-enforced control in many countries.</p>
<p>Such zoning measures have been successfully implemented in several areas in China, notably <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/world/asia/coronavirus-quarantines-history.html">Wuhan</a>. This would reduce links between different areas and prevent the virus from travelling throughout the territory. As it is impossible to cut links completely due to the need for key workers to travel, and some people ignore the rules, we incorporated this into our analysis.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326793/original/file-20200409-71259-d2vv60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/326793/original/file-20200409-71259-d2vv60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=207&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326793/original/file-20200409-71259-d2vv60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=207&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326793/original/file-20200409-71259-d2vv60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=207&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326793/original/file-20200409-71259-d2vv60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326793/original/file-20200409-71259-d2vv60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/326793/original/file-20200409-71259-d2vv60.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=260&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Disconnecting a human network.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Make it green</h2>
<p>Green zoning would make the transition back to normal life after the initial spread is contained a lot easier. To control the process and the inevitable partial resurgence of the virus, we suggest an approach building on a <a href="https://voxeu.org/article/some-thoughts-covid-19-labour-mobility-perspective">recent article</a> by the Spanish economist Joan Monràs. He proposes first opening up zones that act as local labour markets – areas that have high levels of commuting within, but little commuting beyond them.</p>
<p>We suggest that each nation should be partitioned into geographic areas, or cells, with 5,000 to 100,000 inhabitants. To limit economic damage, this partition should consider “<a href="https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278812/">commuting zones</a>”, that is, zones which share many economic ties.</p>
<p>Each cell is labelled red or green depending on their current status regarding COVID-19. In red cells, the situation would be similar to lockdown. The sanitary measures, restrictions on opening of shops and restrictions on leaving your house would remain in place. In addition, in order to leave one’s zone, a special certificate would be required, reserved for key workers and other important reasons. In contrast, life would progressively go back to normal within green cells. </p>
<p>Consider a town with some 10,000 inhabitants where most people work in a local factory, or in other occupations within the community. Once the virus in under control, no new infections have been detected for several consecutive days (determined by thorough randomised testing as proposed by Economic Nobel Laureate <a href="https://paulromer.net/">Paul Romer</a>), the town would be labelled “green”. Its inhabitants would then be able to return to their usual social and economic interactions within their zone but travel out of town would be restricted.</p>
<p>After approximately a week, when the virus is under control within a small number of neighbouring green cells, they would be joined together into a “green zone”. In this way, ever-larger green zones would be created, with people sharing the same shops, workplaces, parks, and schools. Returning to our Parisian example, all arrondissements could successively be joined together to eventually reunite the city. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327980/original/file-20200415-153313-18m79jo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327980/original/file-20200415-153313-18m79jo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=132&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327980/original/file-20200415-153313-18m79jo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=132&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327980/original/file-20200415-153313-18m79jo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=132&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327980/original/file-20200415-153313-18m79jo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=166&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327980/original/file-20200415-153313-18m79jo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=166&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327980/original/file-20200415-153313-18m79jo.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=166&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"><strong>Green-zoning.</strong> After a number of days, all cells return to green (step 1). After seven days, the green cells merge to form larger green zones (step 2). After seven more days, the green zones merge into a larger green zone (step 3).</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The exact definition of what would constitute a green zone and when to join them together would depend on the specific countries and needs to be defined with consultation of medical, epidemiological and economic experts. In some cases, it may be preferable to refer to them as “amber” in order to highlight the fact that many restrictions remain in place.</p>
<p>Testing and zoning would of course not be perfect. Some green zones would therefore inevitably show a resurgence of infections, and so cease to be “green”. When this happens, the green labelling of the entire area would be lost, and we would go back to the previous lockdown situation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327981/original/file-20200415-153326-9cx49g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/327981/original/file-20200415-153326-9cx49g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=133&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327981/original/file-20200415-153326-9cx49g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327981/original/file-20200415-153326-9cx49g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=133&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327981/original/file-20200415-153326-9cx49g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327981/original/file-20200415-153326-9cx49g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/327981/original/file-20200415-153326-9cx49g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=167&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"><strong>Red-zoning.</strong> A new infection is detected in a green zone (step 1). This triggers testing for COVID-19 cases within the area, and other infections are detected in the surrounding cells (step 2). Green-zones are revised to contain the virus (step 3).</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Advantages of green-zoning</h2>
<p>This reunification process might seem tedious, as the size of the green zones, while often increasing, might also decrease from time to time. But <a href="https://www.esade.edu/itemsweb/wi/research/ecpol/EsadeEcPol_Insigth6_Exit_Strategy.pdf">our study</a> suggests that when the probability of new infections is controlled, this process would still enable an exponentially fast return to normality. A country such as the UK, our simulations suggest, could be reunified within two to four months. This assumes sufficient sanitary measures are maintained, and testing becomes more widely available.</p>
<p>While green zone merging requires a careful process, it is efficient. In some sense, this approach would involve deconstructing society into its fundamental blocks before reconstructing society from these same blocks.</p>
<p>Green zoning would allow rapid reunification and the minimisation of societal and economic damage by restarting normal relationships as soon as possible. There would also be the possibility of adopting green zoning to fit each region’s capability to implement other measures, such as, availability of testing or immunity certificates or practice of sanitary precautions.</p>
<p>To reap the full advantages that the practise of green zoning offers, important policy choices must be made. The definition of zones needs careful consideration of social and economic ties. The rules applying for each zone would need to be clearly defined. Importantly, all measures, including green zoning, would need the support of the public – which may not be easy to secure, given the significant increase in policing measures involved.</p>
<p>The time has come to consider an exit strategy. Our mathematical modelling suggests that some version of green zoning would offer this. Through the progressive enlargement of green zones, we would able to rebuild our social and economic interaction in a safe, efficient, and rapid way.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/136002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
One practical exit strategy from lockdown would be identifying green zones, and progressively joining them together once it is safe to do so.
Miquel Oliu-Barton, Associate Professor, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL
Bary S. R. Pradelski, Associate Member, Oxford-Man Institute, University of Oxford
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/133778
2020-03-24T05:12:37Z
2020-03-24T05:12:37Z
‘Click for urgent coronavirus update’: how working from home may be exposing us to cybercrime
<p>Apart from the obvious health and economic impacts, the coronavirus also presents a major opportunity for cybercriminals. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/life/coronavirus-covid-19-mental-health-working-from-home-advice/12062284">staff across sectors</a> and <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/uq-suspends-teaching-for-one-week-amid-escalating-coronavirus-concerns-20200316-p54ada.html">university students</a> shift to working and studying from home, large organisations are at increased risk of being targeted. With defences down, companies should go the extra mile to protect their business networks and employees at such a precarious time. </p>
<p>Reports suggest hackers are already exploiting remote workers, luring them into <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-03-23/coronavirus-phishing-scams-emails-texts-australians-vulnerable/12079486">online scams</a> masquerading as important information related to the pandemic. </p>
<p>On Friday, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s <a href="https://www.scamwatch.gov.au/news/warning-on-covid-19-scams">Scamwatch reported</a> that since January 1 it had received 94 reports of coronavirus-related scams, and this figure could rise.</p>
<p>As COVID-19 causes a spike in telework, teleheath and online education, cybercriminals have fewer hurdles to jump in gaining access to networks.</p>
<h2>High-speed access theft</h2>
<p>The National Broadband Network’s infrastructure has afforded many Australians access to higher-speed internet, compared with <a href="https://computer.howstuffworks.com/dsl.htm">DSL connections</a>. Unfortunately this also gives cybercriminals high-speed access to Australian homes, letting them rapidly extract personal and financial details from victims. </p>
<p>The shift to working from home means many people are using home computers, instead of more secure corporate-supplied devices. This provides criminals relatively easy access to corporate documents, trade secrets and financial information.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-your-it-departments-role-in-preventing-a-data-breach-25821">What's your IT department's role in preventing a data breach?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Instead of attacking a corporation’s network, which would likely be secured with advanced cybersecurity countermeasures and tracking, they now simply have to locate and attack the employee’s home network. This means less chance of discovery. </p>
<h2>Beware cryptolocker attacks</h2>
<p><a href="https://usa.kaspersky.com/resource-center/definitions/cryptolocker">Cryptolocker-based attacks</a> are an advanced cyberattack that can bypass many traditional countermeasures, including <a href="https://www.techradar.com/au/best/best-antivirus">antivirus software</a>. This is because they’re designed and built by advanced cybercriminals. </p>
<p>Most infections from a cryptolocker virus happen when people open unknown attachments, sent in malicious emails.</p>
<p>In some cases, the attack can be traced to nation state actors. One example is the infamous <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2019/05/12/wannacry-two-years-on/">WannaCry cyberattack</a>, which deployed <a href="https://www.avg.com/en/signal/what-is-malware">malware</a> (software designed to cause harm) that encrypted computers in more than 150 countries. The hackers, supposedly from North Korea, demanded cryptocurrency in exchange for unlocking them. </p>
<p>If an employee working from home accidentally activates cryptolocker malware while browsing the internet or reading an email, this could first take out the home network, then spread to the corporate network, and to other attached home networks. </p>
<p>This can happen if their device is connected to the workplace network via a <a href="https://computer.howstuffworks.com/vpn.htm">Virtual Private Network (VPN)</a>. This makes the home device an extension of the corporate network, and the virus can bypass any advanced barriers the corporate network may have. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/hackers-are-now-targeting-councils-and-governments-threatening-to-leak-citizen-data-126190">Hackers are now targeting councils and governments, threatening to leak citizen data</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>If devices are attached to a network that has been infected and not completely cleaned, the contaminant can rapidly spread again and again. In fact, a single device that isn’t cleaned properly can cause millions of dollars in damage. This happened during the <a href="https://www.csoonline.com/article/3233210/petya-ransomware-and-notpetya-malware-what-you-need-to-know-now.html">2016 Petya and NotPetya malware attack</a>. </p>
<h2>Encryption: not a cryptic concept</h2>
<p>On the bright side, there are some steps organisations and employees can take to protect their digital assets from opportunistic criminal activity.</p>
<p><a href="https://medium.com/searchencrypt/what-is-encryption-how-does-it-work-e8f20e340537">Encryption</a> is a key weapon in this fight. This security method protects files and network communications by methodically “scrambling” the contents using an algorithm. The receiving party is given a key to unscramble, or “decrypt”, the information. </p>
<p>With remote work booming, encryption should be enabled for files on <a href="https://www.pcworld.com/article/2858642/you-can-encrypt-your-hard-drive-but-the-protection-may-not-be-worth-the-hassle.html">hard drives</a> and <a href="https://us.norton.com/internetsecurity-how-to-encrypt-a-flash-drive.html">USB sticks</a> that contain sensitive information. </p>
<p>Enabling encryption on a <a href="https://support.microsoft.com/en-au/help/4028713/windows-10-turn-on-device-encryption">Windows</a> or <a href="https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT204837">Apple</a> device is also simple. And don’t forget to backup your encryption keys when prompted onto a USB drive, and store them in a safe place such as a locked cabinet, or off site. </p>
<h2>VPNs help close the loop</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://us.norton.com/internetsecurity-privacy-safe-vpn.html">VPN should be used</a> at all times when connected to WiFi, even at home. This tool helps mask your online activity and location, by routing outgoing and incoming data through a secure “virtual tunnel” between your computer and the VPN server.</p>
<p>Existing WiFi access protocols (<a href="https://www.tutorialspoint.com/wi-fi/wifi_access_protocols.htm">WEP, WPA, WPA2</a>) are insecure when being used to transmit sensitive data. Without a VPN, cybercriminals can more easily intercept and retrieve data. </p>
<p>VPN is already functional in <a href="https://www.windowscentral.com/how-manually-configure-vpn-windows-10">Windows</a> and <a href="https://support.apple.com/en-au/guide/mac-help/mchlp2963/10.15/mac/10.15">Apple</a> devices. Most reputable antivirus internet protection suites incorporate them. </p>
<p>It’s also important that businesses and organisations encourage remote employees to use <a href="https://www.pcworld.com/article/3219792/best-antivirus-for-windows-pc.html">the best malware and antiviral protections</a> on their home systems, even if this comes at the organisation’s expense. </p>
<h2>Backup, backup, backup</h2>
<p>People often backup their files on a home computer, personal phone or tablet. There is significant risk in doing this with corporate documents and sensitive digital files.</p>
<p>When working from home, sensitive material can be stored in a location unknown to the organisation. This could be <a href="https://computer.howstuffworks.com/cloud-computing/cloud-storage.htm">a cloud location</a> (such as iCloud, Google Cloud, or Dropbox), or via backup software the user owns or uses. Files stored in these locations may not protected under Australian laws.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-can-each-fight-cybercrime-with-smarter-habits-36686">How we can each fight cybercrime with smarter habits</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Businesses choosing to save files on the cloud, on an external hard drive or on a home computer need to identify backup regimes that fit the risk profile of their business. Essentially, if you don’t allow files to be saved on a computer’s hard drive at work, and use the cloud exclusively, the same level of protection should apply when working from home. </p>
<p>Appropriate backups must observed by all remote workers, along with standard cybersecurity measures such as firewall, encryption, VPN and antivirus software. Only then can we rely on some level of protection at a time when cybercriminals are desperate to profit.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133778/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig Valli works for Edith Cowan University and Cyber Security CRC. He has received project funding from the European Union FP7 and H2020 programs and from Australian Government programs. Craig is also a Fellow of the Australian Computer Society and member of AISA, IEEE and HTCIA.</span></em></p>
Instead of going after large corporate networks, which often have multiple defenses, cybercriminals can now simply target people’s home networks.
Craig Valli, Director of ECU Security Research Institute, Edith Cowan University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/131534
2020-03-18T13:54:46Z
2020-03-18T13:54:46Z
Wildlife conservation needs to change – and the game of Jenga can help us see why
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321045/original/file-20200317-60885-1c8err1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">La-Rel Easter/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Despite considerable effort, and some wonderful <a href="https://conservationoptimism.org/">success stories</a>, it is widely acknowledged that <a href="https://www.cbd.int/sp/targets/">global conservation targets</a> to reverse declines in biodiversity and halt species extinctions by 2020 will not be met. </p>
<p>Significant and rapid declines in <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/44/E10397">insects</a>, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and fish are increasingly being <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/living-planet-report-2018">reported</a> from many parts of the world as a result of human activities. Last year, the most thorough <a href="https://ipbes.net/news/Media-Release-Global-Assessment">assessment</a> of the world’s biodiversity to date was published. This estimated that a million animal and plant species are now threatened with extinction. That’s 25% of the planet’s species, based on the best estimates.</p>
<p>Much work has gone into identifying, protecting and managing important habitats and ecosystems over the past decades, but conservation action has often focused on large, charismatic animals such as pandas, elephants and gorillas. And there are problems with this approach.</p>
<p>Targeting “flagship species” in this way does have some obvious benefits in terms of raising public awareness. Conservationists assume that the public are more likely to care about, and donate towards, tiger protection compared to moths, wasps and beetles (some of the most threatened groups of insects), for example. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321056/original/file-20200317-60889-13yadt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321056/original/file-20200317-60889-13yadt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321056/original/file-20200317-60889-13yadt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321056/original/file-20200317-60889-13yadt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321056/original/file-20200317-60889-13yadt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321056/original/file-20200317-60889-13yadt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321056/original/file-20200317-60889-13yadt4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These guys need more airtime.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Krzysztof Niewolny/Unsplash</span>, <a class="license" href="http://artlibre.org/licence/lal/en">FAL</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This approach has also played a role in protecting whole habitats. To protect tigers, conservationists need to maintain large areas of land which they need to flourish. This protected land gives a whole host of less glamorous species space to exist. But climate change is now rapidly shifting the relationships between many predators and prey out of balance. This requires a radical rethink of these outdated conservation strategies.</p>
<p>Another principal conservation approach thus far has been to <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/">catalogue and monitor</a> thousands of species around the world. By doing so, scientists have been able to create biodiversity hotspot maps and global “barometers” that are used to guide and inform conservation action. But this process also has some major limitations. In particular, by simply focusing on numbers of species, it can mask our understanding of the “health” of entire ecosystems, how they are functioning and their overall resilience to environmental change and species extinctions.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321057/original/file-20200317-60885-1jc76h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321057/original/file-20200317-60885-1jc76h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321057/original/file-20200317-60885-1jc76h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321057/original/file-20200317-60885-1jc76h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321057/original/file-20200317-60885-1jc76h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321057/original/file-20200317-60885-1jc76h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321057/original/file-20200317-60885-1jc76h9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Focusing on celebrity species can blind us to the rest of the ecosystem.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://unsplash.com/photos/t5V1rup9DCY">AJ Robbie/Unsplash</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Understanding networks</h2>
<p>All this means that in many parts of the world we know a lot about individual species and overall biodiversity, but very little about how species interact with one another. This is important as all species, including humans, are embedded in a complex network of interactions. If something happens to one, it could have cascading impacts on the others, especially if it goes extinct. </p>
<p>By studying the ways in which species interact, scientists are increasing our understanding of a range of ecological processes from which humans benefit, such as pollination and natural pest control. Biodiversity underpins human life-support systems so, for us, the loss of biodiversity is as grave and important as the impacts of climate change. Actually the two issues are interrelated: understanding the direct and indirect interactions between species provides new ways of seeing how unstable ecosystems become when environmental conditions change and when species go extinct. </p>
<p>We don’t have a serious hope of stemming biodiversity loss unless more people understand the importance of these interactions between all species – and our own place within these ecological networks – rather than just focusing on poster species. And it turns out that the game of Jenga is particularly good at helping with this. It is a fantastic metaphor for understanding the interdependence of entire communities of interacting species and how extinctions cause ecosystems to become more fragile.</p>
<h2>Biodiversity Jenga</h2>
<p>I have been playing “Biodiversity Jenga” with university students, school children and members of the public in shopping malls for over a decade. I do this to explain concepts in <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/309/5731/68">food web ecology</a> and show how ecosystems become less stable as species go extinct. Each brick has a different picture of a farmland plant, insect, bird or mammal on it and these are stacked to make a tower representing a farm ecosystem. I include human bricks too, who not only make decisions about how the farm is managed, but are also dependent on the ecosystem for their own survival.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321044/original/file-20200317-60937-x5yo52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/321044/original/file-20200317-60937-x5yo52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321044/original/file-20200317-60937-x5yo52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321044/original/file-20200317-60937-x5yo52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321044/original/file-20200317-60937-x5yo52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321044/original/file-20200317-60937-x5yo52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/321044/original/file-20200317-60937-x5yo52.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Playing biodiversity Jenga.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">© Dane Comerford)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Players take turns to remove bricks, providing me with the opportunity to talk about the ecological role of individual species within the ecosystem, and whether they are threatened with extinction. As the game progresses, the tower becomes less and less stable as more bricks are removed – a poignant demonstration of the current state of nature. Although plants and animals are still present, the continued loss of species and their interactions with each other makes the ecosystem more and more fragile. And, as everyone knows, ultimately the whole thing will come crashing down.</p>
<p>Playing this game has made it apparent to me that biodiversity loss and climate change are not high priorities for many people, mostly because the issues seem intangible or invisible. They say they still see the same animals each year in areas where they live and work, so question whether there really is a problem. Playing Biodiversity Jenga helps to show that the insidious decline in abundance and ultimate loss of multiple species can have profound effects on the ecosystems on which we all depend.</p>
<p>But it also shows that there are reasons to be optimistic. By better understanding the structure and fragility of ecological networks, we provide a <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/335/6071/973">new approach</a> for identifying groups of species that are important to the integrity of an ecosystem. These can potentially be targeted for conservation management to boost ecosystem resilience. And often these key species are not the charismatic mammals and birds, but rather plants and insects: the same species that tend to be overlooked in many current conservation programmes.</p>
<p>This is what my work involves: piecing together the multiple ways in which species interact and drawing upon the <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.12659">DNA technologies</a> used in forensic science to construct and analyse ecological networks. Advances in this field provide enormous opportunities to develop new tools for building ecosystem resilience, to improve simultaneous <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065250417300260?via%3Dihub">monitoring of biodiversity</a> and ecological processes and ultimately for ecological <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169534718301393">restoration</a>. We must find more ways to present this work in tangible and creative ways that people can understand and take part in.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131534/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darren Evans receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, The Royal Society and EU Horizon 2020. </span></em></p>
The game is a fantastic metaphor for understanding how extinctions cause ecosystems to become more fragile.
Darren Evans, Reader in Ecology and Conservation, Newcastle University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/129836
2020-01-16T11:53:25Z
2020-01-16T11:53:25Z
Bushfires: can ecosystems recover from such dramatic losses of biodiversity?
<p>The sheer scale and intensity of the Australian bushfire crisis have led to apocalyptic scenes making the front pages of newspapers the world over. An estimated <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51008051">10 million hectares</a> (100,000 sq km) of land have burned since 1 July 2019. At least <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51008051">28 people</a> have died. And over <a href="https://sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/01/03/a-statement-about-the-480-million-animals-killed-in-nsw-bushfire.html">a billion</a> animals are estimated to have been killed to date. Of course, the actual toll will be much higher if major animal groups, such as insects, are included in these estimates.</p>
<p>The impacts of climate change – in particular, the consequences of the increasing frequency of extreme weather events on all life should be abundantly clear. People finally seem to be taking this seriously, but there is an undercurrent of opinion about the “naturalness” of wildfires. Some are still questioning the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/01/australia-bushfires-defence-forces-sent-to-help-battle-huge-blazes">role of climate change</a> in driving the Australian bushfires.</p>
<p>It is true that wildfires naturally occur in many parts of the world, and benefit plants and animals in ecosystems that have been uniquely shaped by fire over evolutionary time. And people have been using fire to manage ecosystems for thousands of years. We could learn a thing or two from <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/12/world/aboriginal-australia-fire-trnd/index.html">Aboriginal people</a> and the techniques they have traditionally used to prevent bushfires.</p>
<p>But make no mistake, the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/113/42/11770">scientific evidence</a> shows that human-caused climate change is a key driver of the rapid and unprecedented increases in wildfire activity. What is particularly worrying is the extent to which this is eroding the resilience of ecosystems across wide regions. Yes, it is plausible to expect most plants and animals that have adapted to fire will recover. But the ecological costs of huge, repetitive, high-severity wildfires on ecosystems could be colossal.</p>
<h2>Out of control</h2>
<p>And it’s unclear how much the natural world can tolerate such dramatic disturbance. Wildfires are increasing in severity around the world. The Australian bushfires are larger than some of the <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/02/australian-bushfires-numbers-highlight-sheer-scale-unfolding/">deadliest recorded</a>. Incidences are also increasing in ecosystems where wildfires are uncommon, such as the UK uplands. Not to mention the widespread <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/amazon-fires-brazil-ban-burning-rainforest-climate-change-jair-bolsonaro-a9088396.html">deliberate burning</a> of areas of high conservation value for agriculture, as has been recently reported in large parts of the Brazilian Amazon for beef production and in Indonesia for palm oil. </p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, given the shocking numbers of animals that must have perished as a result of these wildfires, many are questioning whether burned ecosystems can recover from such dramatic losses of biodiversity. In Australia, for example, some estimate that the fires could drive <a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-bushfires-could-drive-more-than-700-animal-species-to-extinction-check-the-numbers-for-yourself-129773">more than 700</a> insect species to extinction.</p>
<p>The world’s biodiversity is already severely struggling – we are in the midst of what scientists describe as the sixth mass extinction. A <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48169783">recent report</a> has highlighted that about a quarter of assessed species are threatened with extinction. Australia already has the highest rate of mammal loss for any region in the world, signalling the fragility of existing ecosystems that might struggle to function in a warming, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/14/australia-bushfires-harbinger-future-scientists">fire prone world</a>. </p>
<p>Fears for familiar and charismatic animals affected by the bushfires, such as koala, have been <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/14/a-billion-animals-the-australian-species-most-at-risk-from-the-bushfire-crisis">expressed by conservationists</a>. The outlook for already critically endangered species, such as the regent honeyeater and western ground parrot, meanwhile, is uncertain. But to establish the true ecological costs of wildfires it is important to consider biodiversity in terms of networks, not particular species or numbers of animals.</p>
<p>All species are embedded in complex networks of interactions where they are directly and indirectly dependent on each other. A <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/food-web/">food web</a> is a good example of such networks. The simultaneous loss of such large numbers of plants and animals could have cascading impacts on the ways species interact – and hence the ability of ecosystems to bounce back and properly function following high-severity wildfires. </p>
<h2>A fragile system</h2>
<p>And so it’s key that we consider biodiversity loss due to wildfires in terms of entire networks of interacting organisms, including humans, rather than simply one or two charismatic animals. I have studied and recently published <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2435.13388">research</a> about the loss of plants and animals due to wildfires in Portugal, using new methods in ecology that can examine the resilience of ecosystems to species extinctions. My team found that networks of interacting plants and animals at burned sites became fragile and more prone to species extinctions.</p>
<p>Our study looked at the impacts of a large wildfire in 2012 on one of the many ecological interactions that keep ecosystems healthy – insect pollination. We examined the responses of moths, which are important but often overlooked <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/een.12174">pollinators</a>, to wildfire by comparing those we caught in burned and neighbouring unburned areas. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310241/original/file-20200115-134842-vd1r8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/310241/original/file-20200115-134842-vd1r8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310241/original/file-20200115-134842-vd1r8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310241/original/file-20200115-134842-vd1r8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310241/original/file-20200115-134842-vd1r8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310241/original/file-20200115-134842-vd1r8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/310241/original/file-20200115-134842-vd1r8h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The hummingbird hawk moth. Research in Portugal is revealing the importance of moths as pollinators.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sfinge-colibri-macroglossum-stellatarum-on-pink-653353480">Claudio306/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By collecting, counting and identifying the thousands of pollen grains they were carrying, we were able to decipher the plant-insect network of interacting species. In this way, it was possible to examine not only the responses of the plants and animals to wildfire, but crucially the impacts on pollination processes. </p>
<p>We then used these networks to model the resilience of the ecosystem more generally. We found that burned areas had significantly more abundant flowers (due to a flush of plants whose seeds and roots survived in the soil) but less abundant and species‐rich moths. The total amount of pollen being transported by the moths in burned areas was just 20% of that at unburned areas.</p>
<p>Our analysis revealed important differences in the way these species interacted as a result of the wildfire. Although the study was only a snapshot in time, we were able to show that plant-insect communities at burned sites were less able to resist the effects of any further disturbances without suffering species extinctions.</p>
<p>And so as people start rebuilding their homes, livelihoods and communities in Australia following the devastating bushfires, it is crucial that governments and land managers around the world take sensible decisions that will build resilience into ecosystems. To do this, ecological interaction networks need to be considered, rather than specific species. Cutting-edge <a href="https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/fulltext/S0169-5347(18)30139-3">network approaches</a> that examine the complex ways in which entire communities of species interact can and should help with this. </p>
<p>Over 45 years ago, the American evolutionary ecologist and conservationist Dan Janzen wrote: “There is a much more insidious kind of extinction: the extinction of ecological interactions.” We should all be concerned not just about the loss of animals, but about the unravelling of species interactions within ecosystems on which we all depend for our survival.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/263883/original/file-20190314-28475-1mzxjur.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/imagine-newsletter-researchers-think-of-a-world-with-climate-action-113443?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKengagement&utm_content=Imagineheader1129836">Click here to subscribe to our climate action newsletter. Climate change is inevitable. Our response to it isn’t.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/129836/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Darren Evans receives funding from the Royal Society, the Natural Environment Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the EU Horizon 2020. </span></em></p>
The ecological costs of huge, repetitive, high-severity wildfires on ecosystems could be colossal.
Darren Evans, Reader in Ecology and Conservation, Newcastle University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/127392
2019-11-26T23:58:25Z
2019-11-26T23:58:25Z
Why it seems like your friends have more to be thankful for
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303010/original/file-20191121-547-x1q9ca.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=40%2C40%2C6669%2C4426&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Math provides clues as to why your happy friends are as happy as they seem.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/1389440327">MilanMarkovic78/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Have you ever felt like everyone else has so much more to be thankful for? Check your Facebook or Instagram feed: Your friends seem to dine at finer restaurants, take more exotic vacations and have more accomplished children. They even have cuter pets! </p>
<p>Rest assured, it’s an illusion, one that’s rooted in a property of social networks known as the friendship paradox. The paradox, first formulated by sociologist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Qh24zNEAAAAJ&hl=en">Scott Feld</a>, states that “your friends are more popular than you are, on average.” This property combines with other peculiarities of social networks to create an illusion. </p>
<p>What the friendship paradox means is this: If I asked you who your friends are, and then I met them, on the whole I would find them to be better socially connected than you. Of course, if you are an exceptionally gregarious person, the paradox won’t apply to you. But for most of us it is likely to hold.</p>
<p>While this paradox can occur in any social network, it is rampant online. One <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.05286">study found</a> that 98 percent of Twitter users subscribe to accounts that have more followers than they themselves do. </p>
<h2>The mathematics of friendships</h2>
<p>Although it sounds strange, the friendship paradox has a simple mathematical explanation.</p>
<p>Each person’s social circle of friends is different. Most of us have some friends, and then there are well-connected people like <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/david-rockefellers-famous-rolodex-is-astonishing-heres-a-first-peek-1512494592">David Rockefeller</a>, the onetime CEO of Chase Manhattan Bank, whose address book included more than 100,000 people! </p>
<p>On social media, celebrities like Justin Bieber can have more than 100 million followers. It’s this small group of hyperconnected people – people with many friends, who are part of your social circle – that increases the average popularity of your friends. </p>
<p>This is the mathematical double whammy at the heart of the friendship paradox. Not only does the extraordinary popularity of people like Justin Bieber skew the average popularity of friends for anyone they are connected to, but even though people like him are rare, they also appear in an extraordinary number of social circles.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303175/original/file-20191122-74576-10hywzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303175/original/file-20191122-74576-10hywzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303175/original/file-20191122-74576-10hywzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303175/original/file-20191122-74576-10hywzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303175/original/file-20191122-74576-10hywzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303175/original/file-20191122-74576-10hywzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303175/original/file-20191122-74576-10hywzo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People central to social networks can shape public perceptions and trends.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.Shutterstock.com/708373405">patpitchaya/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And the friendship paradox is not a mere mathematical curiosity. It has useful applications in forecasting trends and monitoring disease. Researchers have used it to predict trending topics on Twitter weeks before they became popular and to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0012948">spot flu outbreaks</a> in their early stages and devise efficient strategies to manage the disease. </p>
<p>Here’s how it can work: Imagine, for example, that you arrive in an African village with only five doses of Ebola vaccine. The best strategy is not to vaccinate the first five people you happen to meet but to ask those people who their friends are and vaccinate those five friends. If you do this, you are likely to pick people who have wider social circles and thus would infect more people were they to get sick. Vaccinating friends would be more effective at stopping the spread of Ebola than inoculating random people who may be on the periphery of a social network and not connected to many others. </p>
<h2>Are you popular?</h2>
<p>There’s more. Remarkably, a stronger version of the friendship paradox holds for many people: <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1403.7242">Most of your friends have more friends than you do</a>. Let that sink in. I’m no longer talking about averages, where a single exceptionally popular friend could skew the average popularity of your friends. </p>
<p>What this means is that the majority of your friends are better socially connected than you are. Go ahead and try it for yourself. Click on the name of each friend on Twitter and see how many followers they have and how many accounts they are following. I am willing to bet that most numbers are bigger than yours.</p>
<p>Stranger still, this paradox holds not just for popularity but for other traits as well, like enthusiasm for using social media, dining at fine restaurants or taking exotic vacations. As a concrete example, consider how frequently someone posts updates on Twitter. </p>
<p>It is true that most of the people you follow post more status updates than you do. Also, most of the people you follow receive more novel and diverse information than you do. And most of the people you follow receive more viral information that ends up spreading much farther than what you see in your feed.</p>
<h2>What you think you know may not be true</h2>
<p>This stronger version of the friendship paradox can lead to a “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0147617">majority illusion</a>,” in which a trait that is rare in a network as a whole appears to be common within many social circles. Imagine that few people, in general, are redheads, yet it appears to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/wonkblog/majority-illusion/">many people</a> that most of their friends have red hair. All it takes for the illusion that “red hair is common” to take hold is for a few hyperconnected influencers to be redheads.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303183/original/file-20191122-74562-amub41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/303183/original/file-20191122-74562-amub41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303183/original/file-20191122-74562-amub41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303183/original/file-20191122-74562-amub41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303183/original/file-20191122-74562-amub41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303183/original/file-20191122-74562-amub41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/303183/original/file-20191122-74562-amub41.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What is going on.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/1552572737">Andrii Yalanskyi/Shutterstock.com</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The majority illusion can explain why you may notice that your friends seem to be doing more exciting things: People who are more socially connected <a href="https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM13/paper/viewPaper/6136">disproportionately influence</a> what we see and learn on social media. This helps explain why adolescents <a href="https://doi.org/10.15288/jsa.1991.52.580">overestimate the prevalence of binge drinking on college campuses</a> and why some topics <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.05286">appear to be more popular</a> on Twitter than they really are. </p>
<p>The majority illusion can distort your perceptions of the lives of others. People who are better socially connected than the rest of us may also do more notable things, like dining at Michelin-starred restaurants or vacationing on Bora Bora. They are also <a href="https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM13/paper/viewPaper/6136">more active on social media</a> and more likely to Instagram their lives, distorting our perceptions of how common those things are. A good way to mitigate the illusion is to stop comparing yourself to friends and be thankful for what you have.</p>
<p>[ <em>You’re smart and curious about the world. So are The Conversation’s authors and editors.</em> <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/newsletters?utm_source=TCUS&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=youresmart">You can read us daily by subscribing to our newsletter</a>. ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/127392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kristina Lerman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Does it seem like your friends have better lives than you do? Mathematics, in the form of the “majority illusion,” can help explain why.
Kristina Lerman, Project Leader at the Information Sciences Institute and Research Associate Professor, University of Southern California
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/123234
2019-11-21T16:02:23Z
2019-11-21T16:02:23Z
Surviving nuclear disasters depends on stronger communications networks
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301840/original/file-20191114-26237-1dsfplo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=45%2C0%2C5097%2C3380&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Communications systems after a disaster can be affected by behaviour such as the number of times a person tries to access emergency systems.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Building resilience is a key topic in many research fields. The increase of natural and human-made disasters and their catastrophic consequences have revealed that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.006">not all hazards can be prevented</a>. </p>
<p>We do not need to look far back. In September 2019, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49553770">Hurricane Dorian caused major damage in the Bahamas</a>. Hundreds of forest fires <a href="https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-wildfires-map-2019-updates-on-fire-locations-evacuation-alerts-orders">have devastated British Columbia</a> and, although the summer has not started yet in Australia, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/07/bushfires-rage-across-queensland-and-nsw-destroying-at-least-15-homes">many fires are affecting the country</a>. </p>
<p>Other major incidents in recent history include <a href="https://www.cnn.com/specials/hurricane-irma">Hurricane Irma in 2017</a>, the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpe.2012.03.032">2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan</a> and the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12036">2010 Darfield earthquake in New Zealand</a>. Likewise, human-caused disasters have also occurred, such as the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nima.2013.04.017">Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan in 2011</a>.</p>
<h2>Building resiliency</h2>
<p>Different levels of governments are assigning resources to improve the resiliency — the ability to withstand damage and recover after a catastrophic event or disaster — of their legislated areas. In Canada, <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/pan-canadian-framework/adaptation-climate-resilience.html">the focus is on climate resilience and is based on the following actions</a>:</p>
<p>(1) Translating scientific information and traditional knowledge into action;</p>
<p>(2) Building resilient infrastructure;</p>
<p>(3) Protecting and improving human health and well-being;</p>
<p>(4) Supporting vulnerable regions;</p>
<p>(5) Reducing the hazards related to climate change and risk of disaster.</p>
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<p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-researchers-plant-seeds-of-hope-for-health-and-climate-106217">Indigenous researchers plant seeds of hope for health and climate</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<p>The U.S. Department of Homeland Security works with “<a href="https://www.dhs.gov/topic/resilience">all levels of government, the private and nonprofit sectors, and individual citizens</a>” to develop resilience. Meanwhile, the European Commission has <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/initiatives/ares-2017-1137007_en">identified resilience among its top strategic priorities</a>.</p>
<h2>Top-down planning</h2>
<p>After the nuclear accident at Fukushima, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) suggested improvements, including <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2012.11.008">strengthening management systems, response arrangements, transparency and effectiveness of communications mechanisms</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=435&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/301841/original/file-20191114-26211-9xkt5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=546&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-nuclear tent in Tokyo, Japan. Nuclear issues in Fukushima have still not been resolved.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Although emergency plans are carefully designed, traditional approaches are based on top-down perspectives that aim for the compliance of a set of laws, regulations and directives. These approaches are similar to a military command chain, with a small margin for adaptation in response to unforeseen circumstances not identified in the plan. </p>
<p>The analysis of previous disasters reveals problems with emergency plans and crisis management. The importance of communication mechanisms is shown in the analysis of previous disasters — for example, the lack of functional communication systems <a href="https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss1/art3/">complicates the management of emergency responses</a>.</p>
<h2>Communication flaws</h2>
<p>Although the importance of improving the resilience of communications networks is clear, there is a lack of testing and improving these networks in complex organizations. This becomes more challenging if we include the social aspects of communications — the behaviour of individuals involved in such communications.</p>
<p>Our research focuses on filling this gap. We recently investigated and proposed a new software platform and development process that focuses on the resilience of communications between individuals in complex organizations. Our case study was a proposed nuclear emergency plan from a power plant in Spain.</p>
<p>The communications aspect of an emergency plan can be modelled using an information diffusion process, meaning that the object of interest (like a virus, idea or particle) spreads out in a given environment (a hospital, a research group, a magnetic medium, for example) starting from an area with a high concentration to areas of lower concentration. </p>
<p>We designed a new method to systematically simulate such diffusion processes in distinct phases: model development, transformation of the model into a computer software and experimentation through computer simulation. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1145/3200921.3200922">Our proposed method</a> combined three models: network theory, to define the possible connections between individuals; agent-based modeling to define the behaviour of individuals; and discrete event system specifications to see how communications in the emergency plan would work in different scenarios. </p>
<p>This approach allows us to check if the model matches the real system before spending time and money on implementation. For example, we could change which individuals communicated with each other, which networks were available and which actions individuals took. We studied different what-if scenarios, changing aspects like the kinds of devices used to communicate, or how the communication networks were set up.</p>
<p>We identified that the behaviour of the individuals affects the resilience of the whole network: the number of re-dial attempts by an individual may be critical to the whole information transmission process because it may prevent that person from communicating relevant information to other teams in a timely manner. </p>
<p>Similarly, we found scenarios where a person not forwarding the emergency information exactly as expected could jeopardize the entire process.</p>
<p>The following image shows the effect of a collapse in a telephone network. This type of failure while managing an emergency can have a very negative impact on the performance of the first responders, because they may miss relevant information.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/291866/original/file-20190910-190016-14jkf7y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Communication network after a collapse in the phone communication channel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The results of our research have potential for policy-makers. The models we developed can be used to simulate the effects of different policies. This is critical before implementing them in the real world because it will save time, costs and undesired outcomes. </p>
<p>The lessons from our case study can also be applied in other fields, such as controlling the spread of disease or the dissemination of fake news on social media.</p>
<p>[ <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/ca/newsletters?utm_source=TCCA&utm_medium=inline-link&utm_campaign=newsletter-text&utm_content=expertise">Expertise in your inbox. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter and get a digest of academic takes on today’s news, every day.</a></em> ]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/123234/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabriel Wainer receives funding from NSERC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cristina Ruiz Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Communications networks are a crucial part of any disaster planning. Resilient communications systems determine how effective emergency responses can be.
Gabriel Wainer, Professor, Systems and Computer Engineering, Carleton University
Cristina Ruiz Martin, Postdoctoral fellow, Systems and Computer Engineering, Carleton University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/100277
2018-08-02T12:14:44Z
2018-08-02T12:14:44Z
5G: UK risks losing its lead, but some simple steps could prevent that
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230403/original/file-20180802-136676-1gs903w.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-woman-using-mobile-phone-bokeh-1105694417?src=dLY50sKShWSILtGTacgTHA-2-22">Shutterstock.</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>5G <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/forging-a-full-fibre-broadband-and-5g-future-for-all">is expected to</a> offer unprecedented data speeds, improve performance and be more energy efficient than the current 4G network. It could even deliver real-time haptic feedback - the power of touch across the mobile network - a feature which has huge implications for fields from <a href="https://www.ericsson.com/en/cases/2017/kings-college/kings-healthcare">medicine</a> to <a href="https://news.cityoflondon.gov.uk/city-of-london-to-host-the-worlds-first-5g-connected-theatre/">music</a>. </p>
<p>The UK is in a reasonably good position when it comes to mobile connectivity: <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/727889/Future_Telecoms_Infrastructure_Review.pdf">87% of the UK</a> has a 4G signal from at least one operator, and the UK mobile market is viewed as being competitive. The UK government <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/664563/industrial-strategy-white-paper-web-ready-version.pdf">has also committed</a> to becoming a world leader in 5G, by providing reliable high-speed connections throughout the nation’s towns, cities and rural areas, and <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/newsevents/news/newsrecords/2018/02-February/British-universities-debut-world's-first-5G-end-to-end-network-at-Mobile-World-Congress.aspx">investing in university research and development</a> of 5G, which can be commercialised to benefit the general public. </p>
<h2>Missed opportunities</h2>
<p>Unless the government continues to support 5G innovation, however, it may not remain in such a strong position. Historically, the UK has a patchy record when it comes to capitalising on innovation. Key innovations were made in Britain that were crucial for the development of computing and the internet. But often these scientific and technological discoveries were not followed up and commercialised successfully in the UK. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230405/original/file-20180802-136670-1vp1lu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230405/original/file-20180802-136670-1vp1lu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230405/original/file-20180802-136670-1vp1lu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230405/original/file-20180802-136670-1vp1lu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230405/original/file-20180802-136670-1vp1lu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230405/original/file-20180802-136670-1vp1lu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230405/original/file-20180802-136670-1vp1lu0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Colossus in action.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossus_computer#/media/File:Colossus.jpg">The National Archives/Wikipedia.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In some cases, pioneers are barely remembered. Tommy Flowers and colleagues <a href="http://www.computinghistory.org.uk/det/1078/Tommy-Flowers/">built the first</a> programmable digital electronic computer – Colossus – to assist with code breaking and intelligence gathering at Bletchley Park during World War II. Ten were built in total, but after the war all but two were dismantled. The breakthroughs made in Britain were never followed up, and Colossus had little influence on the subsequent development of the computer, which happened mainly in the US.</p>
<p>Another example is “<a href="https://www.livinginternet.com/i/iw_packet_inv.htm">packet switching</a>”, a key technology underlying the development of the internet. Packet switching means dividing up a data message into separate parts or “packets”, routing each packet in the most efficient way and then reassembling the message at its destination. It was invented independently on both sides of the Atlantic, by Paul Baran in the US, and <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/224386328_The_early_history_of_packet_switching_in_the_UK_History_of_Communications">Donald Davies</a> in the UK. Indeed, it was Davies who <a href="https://www.wired.com/2012/09/donald-davies/">coined the term</a> “packet switching”. </p>
<p>British scientists and engineers made key contributions to how the internet developed – but the centre of innovation soon moved elsewhere. Both Flowers and Davies are now recognised as pioneers of computing, but only belatedly.</p>
<h2>The valley of death</h2>
<p>More generally, the UK has struggled successfully to cross the “<a href="https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmsctech/348/348.pdf">valley of death</a>” by translating its scientific and technological discoveries into commercially successful products and businesses. At King’s College London, my colleagues have worked on delivering 5G in a real-world setting – here’s <a href="https://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/policy-institute/research-analysis/how-government-can-drive-5g-innovation.aspx">what my colleagues and I recommend</a> to ensure the UK maintains its position as a global leader. </p>
<p>At the moment, 5G is being developed as part of different projects led by a range of organisations. But there are few wider partnerships, and little focus on scaling up pilot projects or building larger networks. 5G requires radically different network infrastructure to 4G. And there are millions of lamp posts and other street furniture, where network equipment could be installed to build up coverage on a large scale. The government could make it simpler for operators, by creating a clear, nationwide process for leveraging these assets. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230402/original/file-20180802-136661-76fjjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/230402/original/file-20180802-136661-76fjjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230402/original/file-20180802-136661-76fjjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230402/original/file-20180802-136661-76fjjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230402/original/file-20180802-136661-76fjjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230402/original/file-20180802-136661-76fjjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/230402/original/file-20180802-136661-76fjjb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Let there be 5G.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/young-man-holding-scrolling-texting-his-1062243614?src=Oh5S169rYWLCmA5LkKQx_g-2-52">Shutterstock.</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The existing digital infrastructure could also be used more efficiently. There’s already a strong fibre network spanning the UK. But it’s owned by a range of organisations, all working separately. As a result, the network is not being used to maximum economic and operational benefit. The government should prioritise - and regulate if necessary - fibre sharing among public institutions and private operators. </p>
<p>The government should also take a more nuanced approach when it comes to giving operators the right to use certain radio frequencies. As it stands, use of the radio spectrum is auctioned off to the highest bidder. But there are better ways to foster innovation: for example, by leasing or sub-leasing frequencies over given locations and time periods. </p>
<p>This would allow a wide range of organisations to explore new uses for mobile technology, which might not be prioritised under the current system, if operators are uncertain about returns on investment. </p>
<h2>Don’t play ‘catch up’</h2>
<p>There should also be laws and policies allowing enterprises such as manufacturing sites, shopping malls, cultural institutions and other organisations to build their own networks for their clients, together with traditional mobile network operators. </p>
<p>King’s College London has a range of spectrum test licences and, because of these, has been able to develop, test and deploy the first attempts at 5G in the UK. This has attracted significant interest and attention from operators, who – with a few exceptions – are unable to commit many resources to exploring a very new technology.</p>
<p>There must also be a national approach to building the skills to leverage the benefits offered by 5G, as these are currently in short supply. The technology is likely to be commercialised before people have a chance to develop these skills - as is already happening with <a href="https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252436963/UK-demand-for-AI-professionals-has-almost-tripled-in-three-years">AI</a>, <a href="https://www.techuk.org/insights/reports/item/9469-the-uk-s-big-data-future-mind-the-gap">big data</a> and the <a href="https://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1332655">Internet of Things</a>. It’s better to prioritise building up the skills needed for 5G now, rather than playing “catch up” later. </p>
<p>The UK has a unique opportunity. Through government leadership and investment, the foundations of 5G are being built across the UK. But more must be done if the UK is to avoid past mistakes, maintain its leadership in 5G and deliver the benefits to citizens and businesses.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100277/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Kleinman is employed by King's College London </span></em></p>
Many computers built at Bletchley Park were dismantled and progress stalled – it would be a tragedy if the same thing happened with 5G.
Mark Kleinman, Professor of Public Policy, King's College London
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/72973
2017-04-27T20:05:25Z
2017-04-27T20:05:25Z
Every picture tells a story, but visualisation can tell the right one
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165818/original/image-20170419-6360-wlre9c.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The right visualisation will stand on its own as a communication tool. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/confirm/418477744?size=huge_jpg">from www.shutterstock.com </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>They say a picture is worth a thousand words. </p>
<p>But how much data can a picture capture? Or, more interestingly, how can a picture tell a story that’s hiding in data? </p>
<p>Our eyes can process vast amounts of information rapidly, and we can take advantage of that to make the most of our data. </p>
<p>This is good, because <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-big-data-13780">big data</a> is producing more data than ever before. Data analytics are being deployed in many domains and for applications that did not exist even a couple of decades ago. </p>
<p>More than just a simple picture, visualisation helps humans explore and understand data, and to communicate that understanding to others. Here are a few examples. </p>
<h2>Finding the message among the noise</h2>
<p>A human genomic data set includes thousands of genes from individual patients with a variety of health conditions and diseases. </p>
<p>Simply presenting this information as a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_map">heat map</a> of the entire genomic information from hundreds of people gives a result that is too crowded to comprehend.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157589/original/image-20170220-12475-f7qj02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157589/original/image-20170220-12475-f7qj02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157589/original/image-20170220-12475-f7qj02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157589/original/image-20170220-12475-f7qj02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157589/original/image-20170220-12475-f7qj02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157589/original/image-20170220-12475-f7qj02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157589/original/image-20170220-12475-f7qj02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157589/original/image-20170220-12475-f7qj02.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=422&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A cropped view of a heat-map visualisation of gene expression values.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But there are other ways to present genomic data that focus on the relevant information by synergising the automated analysis with visualisation and interaction. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165737/original/image-20170418-32696-17olhm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165737/original/image-20170418-32696-17olhm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165737/original/image-20170418-32696-17olhm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165737/original/image-20170418-32696-17olhm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165737/original/image-20170418-32696-17olhm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=239&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165737/original/image-20170418-32696-17olhm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165737/original/image-20170418-32696-17olhm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165737/original/image-20170418-32696-17olhm8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The initial data analysis process presents similarities among members of the population. The closeness of the items indicates greater similarity in their genes. Without the burden of seeing all the genomics data, we can then drill down to the genes of interest for the selected persons.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Likewise, a social circle from Facebook includes thousands of people, and hundreds of thousands of connections. The image below shows a “hairball” view of a highly connected network. It is far too complex to comprehend at this level.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157590/original/image-20170221-12466-18guofc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157590/original/image-20170221-12466-18guofc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157590/original/image-20170221-12466-18guofc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157590/original/image-20170221-12466-18guofc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157590/original/image-20170221-12466-18guofc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157590/original/image-20170221-12466-18guofc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157590/original/image-20170221-12466-18guofc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157590/original/image-20170221-12466-18guofc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An incomprehensible visualisation of a large network.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But here is another kind of visualisation that highlights interesting groupings of relationships. In this case, it’s a social network of 1,000+ friends that illustrates the context of the various social connections, and also displays the compactness of the interconnections. The different colours are used to show socioeconomic backgrounds.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165769/original/image-20170419-1900-1e6ju9i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165769/original/image-20170419-1900-1e6ju9i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165769/original/image-20170419-1900-1e6ju9i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165769/original/image-20170419-1900-1e6ju9i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165769/original/image-20170419-1900-1e6ju9i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=384&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165769/original/image-20170419-1900-1e6ju9i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165769/original/image-20170419-1900-1e6ju9i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/165769/original/image-20170419-1900-1e6ju9i.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A visualisation of a social network of 1,000+ friends that illustrates the different socioeconomic backgrounds via the compactness of the groups of friend interconnections and the colours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Kimo Quaintance</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A good visualisation should embrace the complexity of information, while presenting it in a comprehensible and meaningful form. Simplicity and authentic presentation also help with perception and interpretation of the information. </p>
<h2>Diagrammatic visualisation of Sydney ports</h2>
<p>Diagrammatic visualisation is an approach that uses the simplicity and familiarity of diagrams and symbols to represent complex information. </p>
<p>Presented below is an example of diagrammatic visualisation used to represent logistics operations and trends in productivity for both the land side and the wharf side at Port Botany in Sydney from September 2000 until December 2010. </p>
<p>Our challenge was to include the following information in our visualisations: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Land-side activities, including truck turnaround time, total number of trucks, total number of containers and slots available and used </p></li>
<li><p>Wharf-side activities, including crane rate, ship rate, crane time not worked, stevedoring variability, throughput per berth meter (PBM), ships handled, vessel working rate, and total number of containers.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The most important aspects to cover were container loading and unloading times, truck turnaround times, and other factors that convey information on performance, labour productivity and efficiency. </p>
<p>We followed the visual information-seeking mantra of “overview first, filter and zoom, details on demand”, to provide an illustration of the Sydney ports’ performance. </p>
<p>The visualisation illustrates:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>The land-side performance with truck icons and 20-foot equivalent unit container (TEU) icons, and </p></li>
<li><p>The wharf-side performance with ship icons and container icons.</p></li>
</ol>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157591/original/image-20170221-12485-1dmkw04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157591/original/image-20170221-12485-1dmkw04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157591/original/image-20170221-12485-1dmkw04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157591/original/image-20170221-12485-1dmkw04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157591/original/image-20170221-12485-1dmkw04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157591/original/image-20170221-12485-1dmkw04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157591/original/image-20170221-12485-1dmkw04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157591/original/image-20170221-12485-1dmkw04.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The performance overview at Port Botany.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The figure indicates the steady improvement in the overall performance over the years. This is clearly visible in the increasing numbers of icons at each quarter across the years.</p>
<p>But you can also see that the performance got worse in the first three quarters of 2009 (as a result of the global recession). </p>
<p>A zoom at the following images indicates the low total number of trucks and containers (land-side visualisation), as well as the low number of ships and containers handled at the port (wharf-side visualisation). </p>
<p>After the <a href="http://www.sydneyports.com.au/corporation/news/myPorts_newsletter/myports_June_2014/port_botany_landside_improvement_strategy_pblis_-_on_the_move">Port Botany Land-side Improvement Strategy</a> was trialled, there was an improvement in crane and ship rates.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157593/original/image-20170221-12475-aijv5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157593/original/image-20170221-12475-aijv5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157593/original/image-20170221-12475-aijv5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157593/original/image-20170221-12475-aijv5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157593/original/image-20170221-12475-aijv5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157593/original/image-20170221-12475-aijv5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157593/original/image-20170221-12475-aijv5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157593/original/image-20170221-12475-aijv5l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The visualisation of land-side performance for Quarter 2 of 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157594/original/image-20170221-12475-1y2txp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157594/original/image-20170221-12475-1y2txp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/157594/original/image-20170221-12475-1y2txp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157594/original/image-20170221-12475-1y2txp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157594/original/image-20170221-12475-1y2txp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=358&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157594/original/image-20170221-12475-1y2txp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157594/original/image-20170221-12475-1y2txp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/157594/original/image-20170221-12475-1y2txp2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The visualisation of wharf-side performance for Quarter 2 of 2009.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is just one example of how data visualisation can be used to highlight important information and trends.</p>
<p>Visualisations have already played an important role in data analytics, in collaboration with machine learning, data mining and statistics and other techniques. </p>
<p>Future visualisations will have more intelligence and visual elements in their designs. They will deliver most appropriate visualisations can be produced for different users, environments and data sets. And then we can truly make the most of the big data era.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/72973/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Quang Vinh Nguyen works for Western Sydney University. </span></em></p>
Along with machine learning, data mining and statistics, visualisations are playing an important role in current-day data analytics.
Quang Vinh Nguyen, Senior Lecturer in Visual Analytics, Western Sydney University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/76258
2017-04-19T22:34:40Z
2017-04-19T22:34:40Z
Calculating where America should invest in its transportation and communications networks
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/165883/original/file-20170419-2410-x9z679.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Which links are most important in road and information networks?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/network-connection-technology-concept-city-background-436942042">Sahacha Nilkumhang/Shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The American economy is underpinned by networks. Road networks carry traffic and freight; the internet and telecommunications networks carry our voices and digital information; the electricity grid is a network carrying energy; financial networks transfer money from bank accounts to merchants. They’re vast, often global systems – but a local disruption can really block them up.</p>
<p>For example, <a href="http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/gdot-state-offering-31m-in-incentives-to-reopen-i-85-before-june/511832846">the I-85 bridge collapse in Atlanta will affect that city’s traffic for months</a>. A seemingly minor train derailment at New York City’s Penn Station resulted in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/04/nyregion/messy-commute-for-nj-transit-and-lirr-riders-a-day-after-derailment.html?_r=0">multiple days of travel chaos</a> in April. </p>
<p>As the Trump administration plans to <a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/economy-budget/328586-an-infrastructure-plan-coming-but-when">invest hundreds of billions in American infrastructure networks</a>, it will be crucial to identify what elements are the most crucial to repair or improve. This is not only important for maximizing benefits; it’s also useful in preventing disaster. Is there, perhaps, a telecommunication line that would be particularly damaging if it were destroyed? Or one road through an area that has an especially large role in keeping traffic flowing smoothly?</p>
<p><a href="http://greatvalley.psu.edu/person/qiang-patrick-qiang">Patrick Qiang</a> and I are operations management scholars who have developed <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10898-007-9198-1">a way to evaluate network performance</a> and simulate the effects of potential changes, whether planned (like a highway repair) or unexpected (like a natural disaster). By modeling the independent behavior of all the users of a network, we can calculate the flow – of <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10898-015-0371-7">freight</a>, <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/79/38005">commuters</a>, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77958-2_14">money</a> or anything else – across each link, and how other links’ flows will change. This lets us identify where investment will be most beneficial, and which projects shouldn’t happen at all.</p>
<h2>More isn’t always better</h2>
<p>It’s very difficult to measure networks’ performance, in part because they are so complex, but also because people use them differently at different times, and because those choices affect others’ experiences. For example, one person choosing to drive to work instead of taking the bus puts one more car on the road, which might get involved in a crash or otherwise contribute to a traffic jam.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8mlH9bnvWVE?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Explaining the Braess paradox.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In 1968, German mathematician Dietrich Braess observed the possibility that adding a road to an area with congested traffic <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.1050.0127">could actually make things worse</a>, not better. <a href="https://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu/braess/braess-new.html">This paradox</a> can occur when travel times depend on the amount of traffic. If too many drivers decide their own optimal route involves one particular road, that road can become congested, slowing everyone’s travel time. In effect, the drivers would have been better off if the road hadn’t been built.</p>
<p>This phenomenon has been found not only <a href="https://supernet.isenberg.umass.edu/braess/braess-new.html#BraessArticle">in transportation networks</a> and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1239/jap/1032374242">the internet</a>, but also, recently, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/115/28004">in electrical circuits</a>. </p>
<p>We shouldn’t waste time and money building or repairing network links the community would be better without. But how can we tell which elements help and which make things worse?</p>
<h2>Calculating efficiency</h2>
<p>The best networks can handle the highest demand at the lowest average cost for each trip – such as a commute from a worker’s home to her office. Evaluating a network means identifying which locations need to be connected to each other, as well as the volume of traffic between specific places and the various costs involved – such as gas, pavement wear and tear, and police services keeping drivers safe.</p>
<p>Once a network is measured in this way, it can be converted into a computerized model where we can simulate removing links or adding new ones in particular places. Then we can measure what happens to the rest of the network: Does traffic get more congested, and if so, by how much? Or, as in the Braess paradox, do travel times actually get shorter when a link is removed? And how much money does a particular project cost to build, and save in time or user expenses?</p>
<h2>Going global</h2>
<p>Our method of measuring a network’s performance has been used to refine
<a href="https://ercim-news.ercim.eu/en79/rd/route-optimization-how-efficient-will-the-proposed-north-dublin-metro-be">the route of a proposed metro line in Dublin, Ireland</a>; <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313365965_Maritime_Network_Efficiency_Comparison_in_Indonesia_Nusantara_Pendulum_and_Sea_Tollway">to design new shipping routes in Indonesia</a>; <a href="http://www.cedim.de/download/14_Schulz.pdf">to identify which roads in Germany should be first on the maintenance list</a>; and <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0896-3">to determine the effects of road closures after major fires in regions of Greece</a>.</p>
<p>Our method has also been applied to make supply chains more efficient, both to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-84882-634-2_6">maximize profits</a> and to <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856412000249">speed disaster relief supplies</a> to people in need.</p>
<p>As the U.S. works to enhance its economic competitiveness, the country will need to invest in many different types of networks, to maximize their usefulness and value to Americans. Using measurement methods like ours can guide leaders to wise investments.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/76258/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anna Nagurney does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
When planning major infrastructure investments, it’s important to know which road, freight and information networks are most important – and which proposals might make things worse, not better.
Anna Nagurney, John F. Smith Memorial Professor of Operations Management, UMass Amherst
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/74515
2017-03-31T02:00:33Z
2017-03-31T02:00:33Z
Peace dividends of military alliances go farther than you’d think
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162758/original/image-20170327-3303-xgvdua.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Armed forces in Iraq, January 2017.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>In life, we often find the friend of a friend likable.</p>
<p>In a <a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601895">recent study</a>, our interdisciplinary team of researchers found that this logic applies to military alliances as well. The study – produced by a team of researchers with combined expertise in political science, statistics, mathematics, physics and network science – shows that the impact of alliances extends beyond those countries directly involved. Allies of allies – and allies of allies of allies – are more likely to have peaceful relations.</p>
<h2>Less likely to go to war</h2>
<p>Conventional wisdom and <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00611.x">scholarly research</a> agree that when countries form military alliances, they solidify cooperation and peaceful relations with one another. For example, we don’t expect two countries to fight each other if they are both members of NATO or have signed a bilateral alliance.</p>
<p>Most research on military alliances focuses on pairs of countries. However, our study shows that the effect of alliances goes beyond that direct connection and ties states together in ways that are not always immediately obvious. </p>
<p>The formation of an alliance between two countries also creates indirect ties between all of the states connected to those new allies. If countries A and B have an alliance and countries B and C have an alliance, then A and C are indirectly linked through their mutual connection to B. One would expect that A and C are unlikely to fight one another, since they each had enough in common with B to form an alliance. </p>
<p>By studying indirect alliance ties, our research was able to test this truism. We used statistical models designed for the analysis of network connections to study the link between indirect alliances and conflict from 1965 to 2000. We found that countries with a common ally are less likely to fight one another than pairs without this common bond. And the effect doesn’t stop there. Military alliances also reduce the risk of conflict between more distant indirect allies. </p>
<p>Think of international alliances as a web linking countries across the globe through ties both direct and indirect. The “path length” between any two countries can be defined as the number of steps it takes to link the two in the network. For example, if country A is allied to country B, which is allied to country C, then A and C have a path length of two. In other words, there are two degrees of separation between A and C. </p>
<p>Our study finds that neighboring countries separated by up to three degrees in the alliance network are significantly less likely to fight each other than pairs of states less closely connected. </p>
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<p>This dynamic played out in the case of Turkey and Iran. Between 1965 and 1979, the two countries were not allied to each other, but both had alliances with the United States. During this period, Iran and Turkey did not have any serious military conflicts. Following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, however, Iran and the United States severed their alliance, breaking the indirect connection between Turkey and Iran. From 1981 to 2000, Iran and Turkey <a href="http://cow.dss.ucdavis.edu/data-sets/MIDs">clashed</a> over allegations that Iran was offering safe harbor to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a militant group active in southeastern Turkey. This dispute <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/398409.stm">periodically escalated</a> to cross-border helicopter raids and aerial bombings.</p>
<p>In any study of war, it’s important to remember that military conflict between countries is a rare event. Most countries are not fighting each other at any given time. In fact, as our research shows, in any given year, there is about a 3 to 4 percent chance that any two neighboring countries separated by three degrees in the alliance network will experience a serious conflict involving some use of military force. For countries separated by four degrees, the chance of conflict rises sharply to nearly 6 percent. </p>
<p>The suppressing effect of indirect alliance ties on conflict does not gradually decrease with each new link in the chain. Instead, a country is almost equally unlikely to fight its allies, the allies of its allies, and the allies of its allies of its allies. At four degrees, the risk of conflict rises suddenly, and these countries have almost twice the probability (5.7 percent) of fighting one another than countries separated by two (3.2 percent) or three (3.6 percent) degrees. </p>
<p>Connections of five degrees are rare. For instance, the only five-degree connections to the U.S. are Kenya from 1981 to 1986 and Cuba from 1994 to 1996. </p>
<h2>Local conflicts more common</h2>
<p>An important point about the effect of indirect alliance ties is that these links matter precisely for the pairs of countries most at risk of conflict – in other words, neighbors. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/174478">A well-established finding</a> in the study of international conflict is that war is more likely to occur between neighboring countries. Not only are neighbors more likely to have grievances to fight over, but most countries aren’t capable of fighting distant foes, even if they wanted to. No matter how much their governments may disagree, the militaries of Bolivia and Botswana are unlikely to ever fight one another. </p>
<p>Connections of one, two and three degrees in the alliance network reduce the risk of conflict for at-risk neighboring states.</p>
<p>Our research suggests that international alliances matter more than previously thought. Alliances do not just promote cooperation among their members; they also reduce the risk of serious conflict between the countries they indirectly tie together in the global network of alliance connections. Any evaluation of the importance of current military alliances would do well to consider the far-reaching effects of these agreements.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74515/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
New research from a multidisciplinary teams of scholars suggests military alliances tie nations together in ways that are not always immediately obvious.
Skyler Cranmer, Carter Phillips and Sue Henry Associate Professor of Political Science, The Ohio State University
Aisha Bradshaw, Graduate Student in Political Science, The Ohio State University
Caitlin Clary, Ph.D. Student in Political Science, The Ohio State University
Weihua Li, Ph.D. Candidate of applied mathematics, Beihang University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/71279
2017-03-20T01:14:57Z
2017-03-20T01:14:57Z
When things go wrong in an automated world, would we still know what to do?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/161280/original/image-20170317-6130-i7uhjo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Are we losing our skills as we hand more tasks to automated systems?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Michal Staniewski</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>We live in a world that is both increasingly complex and <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/602747/todays-artificial-intelligence-does-not-justify-basic-income/">automated</a>. So just as we are having to deal with more complex problems, automation is leading to an atrophy of human skills that may leave us more vulnerable when responding to unexpected situations or when things go wrong.</p>
<p>Consider the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/9231855/Air-France-Flight-447-Damn-it-were-going-to-crash.html">final minutes of Air France Flight 447</a>, which crashed into the Atlantic in May 2009 after leaving Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for Paris, France. </p>
<p>Its flight recorder revealed <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/news/business/2014/10/air-france-flight-447-crash">utter confusion in the cockpit</a>. The plane became tilted upwards at 15º with an automated voice repetitively calling “stall, stall”. Yet the pilots were reeling, one exclaiming: “[…] we don’t understand anything.”</p>
<p>This is not the place to go into the ins and outs of that ill-fated flight, other than to note that any system designed to deal automatically with contingencies the majority of the time leaves a degraded skill base for the minority of situations the designers couldn’t foresee.</p>
<p>Speaking to <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/news/business/2014/10/air-france-flight-447-crash">Vanity Fair</a>, Nadine Sarter, an industrial engineer at the University of Michigan, recalls a conversation with five engineers involved in building a particular aircraft.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I started asking, ‘Well, how does this or that work?’ And they could not agree on the answers. So I was thinking, if these five engineers cannot agree, the poor pilot, if he ever encounters that particular situation … well, good luck.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In effect the complexity of judiciously flying highly intricate high-tech airliners has been outsourced to a robot, with <a href="http://www.airlineratings.com/did-you-know.php?id=21">flight engineers to all intents and purposes gone</a> from cockpits. Only older pilots and ex air force pilots retain those detailed skills.</p>
<p>Back on terra firma, in an autonomous driving world there could be entire future generations with no practical experience whatsoever in <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/technology-use-or-lose-our-navigation-skills-1.19632">driving and navigating</a> a vehicle.</p>
<p>We’re already seeing an indication of <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601822/fatal-tesla-autopilot-crash-is-a-reminder-autonomous-cars-will-sometimes-screw-up/">what can go wrong</a> when humans leave control to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2017/mar/02/the-guardian-test-drives-a-driverless-car-it-doesnt-go-well-video">autonomous systems</a>.</p>
<p>An investigation into the <a href="https://www.wired.com/2017/01/probing-teslas-deadly-crash-feds-say-yay-self-driving/">fatal crash of a Tesla Model S with autopilot</a> noted that the company provided information about “system limitations” to drivers. In that case, it’s still up to drivers to pay attention.</p>
<p>But what chance would a person have of taking over any controls should things start to go wrong in their future <a href="https://theconversation.com/driverless-cars-just-imagine-how-we-could-use-them-72085">fully autonomous vehicle</a>. Would they even know how to spot the early signs of impending disaster? </p>
<h2>Losing our way?</h2>
<p>Driving this is a technological determinism that believes any and all innovation is intrinsically good. While emerging technologies may yet define what it is to be human, the challenge is to <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/technology-use-or-lose-our-navigation-skills-1.19632">recognise the risk</a> and what to do to make sure things don’t go wrong.</p>
<p>That’s getting harder as we’ve been adding to complexity, especially with autonomous driving of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-05/driverless-trains3a-sydneysiders-get-first-glimpse-inside/6914786">suburban trains</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38967235">air taxis</a> and <a href="http://www.recode.net/2017/1/31/14460734/watch-paper-airplane-drones-darpa-medicine">delivery drones</a>. </p>
<p>System designers have been building bigger and more intertwined systems to share computer processing load even though this makes their creations prime candidates for breakdown. They are overlooking the fact that once everything is connected, problems can spread as readily as solutions, sometimes more so.</p>
<p>The growing and immense complexity of an automated world poses similar risks.</p>
<h2>Danger points</h2>
<p>In hindsight, what is needed is an ability to cut networks free when there are failure points, or at least to seal off parts of a single network when there are failure points elsewhere within it.</p>
<p>This “islanding” is a feature of smart electricity grids providing scope to split the network into fragments that are able to self-sustain their internal power demand. Modelling has shown that <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/srep34797">fewer connections can lead to more security</a>. </p>
<p>Could emergent complexity science help pinpoint where the danger points might lie in highly interconnected networks? <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/338/6105/344.full">Marten Scheffer and colleagues</a> thought so. He had seen similarities between the behaviour of (his) natural systems and economic and financial systems. </p>
<p>His <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v413/n6856/full/413591a0.html">earlier work</a> on lakes, coral reefs, seas, forests and grasslands, found that environments subject to gradual changes like climate, nutrient load and habitat loss can reach tipping points that flip them into a sometimes irreversible lower state.</p>
<p>Could bankers and economists grappling with the stability of financial markets learn from researchers in ecology, epidemiology and climatology to develop markers of the proximity to critical thresholds and system breakdown? </p>
<p>In February 2016 this all came together in the form of <a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/351/6275/818">a paper on complexity theory and financial regulation</a> co-authored by a wide range of experts including an economist, banker, physicist, climatologist, ecologist, zoologist, veterinarian and epidemiologist. </p>
<p>They recommended an online integration of data, methods and indicators, feeding into stress tests for global socioeconomic and financial systems in near-realtime. The former is similar to what’s been achieved in dealing with other complex systems such as the weather.</p>
<p>We can begin to see how our example of an autonomous driving world folds over into questions of network stability. Imagine a highly interconnected network of autonomous vehicles. </p>
<p>There’s a clear need to know how to detect and isolate any potential failure points in such a network, before things go wrong with potentially tragic consequences. This is more than just protecting driver and passenger from any system failure in a single autonomous vehicle.</p>
<p>It’s time to think how we might use those multidisciplinary advances in understanding the stability of such large scale networks to avoid drastic consequences.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71279/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Fisher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Machines are taking over many human tasks but what happens when something goes wrong? Would humans still have the skills to react and prevent a tragedy?
Peter Fisher, Adjunct Professor, Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/64474
2016-09-09T04:35:23Z
2016-09-09T04:35:23Z
Defeating terrorism through design: Think souks, not office buildings
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136954/original/image-20160907-25266-ltqg2i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Embodiment of defiance... or foolhardy design?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/86502566@N03/16267367576">Paul Silva</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>To fight terrorist networks, <a href="https://www.upress.umn.edu/book-division/books/designing-our-way-to-a-better-world">we need to understand them and learn from them</a>. Obviously that doesn’t mean training to become terrorists ourselves. But we can learn from the way many terrorist organizations operate – via highly networked, decentralized connections. This kind of setup has a lot in common with the networked way in which many of us will live and work in the decades ahead.</p>
<p>Since the wake-up call of 9/11, terrorism has come to characterize many of the <a href="http://knopfdoubleday.com/book/234879/the-terror-years/9780385352079/">military conflicts in the 21st century</a>. Today’s terrorist networks demonstrate a highly resilient way of organizing diverse and often distantly located people toward a common goal. This system of organization helps explain why, <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/">as journalist Steven Brill argues</a>, we are not much safer now than we were before 9/11, even after spending US$1 trillion on homeland security. As <a href="http://www.nebraskapress.unl.edu/product/War-of-the-Flea,676555.aspx">studies of guerrilla warfare</a> have shown, centralized, hierarchical, top-down systems, like our current Department of Defense, have a hard time defeating a decentralized, nonhierarchical, networked ones, like the Islamic State group.</p>
<p>Centralized, hierarchical systems may appear stronger, with more power and efficiency on their side. But networked, nonhierarchical ones have much greater capacity to take a hit and to keep functioning, as the sizable literature on <a href="http://www.resalliance.org/publications">ecosystem resilience</a> has repeatedly shown. Networked systems even have an “antifragile” quality, as <a href="http://www.randomhousebooks.com/books/176227/">scholar Nassim Nicholas Taleb has argued</a>, with an ability to bounce back even stronger after a shock. All of which suggests we need to fight terrorist networks in networked ways of our own.</p>
<p>I am an architect and urban designer by training and so I leave it to policymakers and defense strategists to contemplate what this means militarily. I want to focus on what I know: the target side of the equation. How can we reduce the targets of terrorism, getting rid of concentrations of people of a particular type to reduce the likelihood of a devastating strike? How can we rethink our cities and our buildings so that instead of trying to fortify our architectural bull’s-eyes, we eliminate them with a denser weave of diverse activities across a metropolitan area? </p>
<h2>Designing away targets, not fortifying them</h2>
<p>The idea of doing away with the targets of large concentrations of people doing the same type of activity may seem like a restraint of Americans’ freedom, a violation of the First Amendment right to “peaceably assemble” in whatever kind of conglomeration we choose. But it’s really a call for us to assemble in new ways, aided by digital technology, so we can do so with peace of mind. </p>
<p>In some ways, the 9/11 terrorists were sending us an unintended message: Concentrating the military command in the Pentagon, or financial and governmental organizations in the World Trade Center towers, makes them – and all of us commuting to workplaces like this every day – more vulnerable.</p>
<p>Taleb captures this idea in the title of one of his book chapters: “The Souk and the Office Building.” The modern office building may seem efficient by gathering so many people in an organization together. Such structures, though, remain vulnerable to what Taleb calls “fat tails,” in which <a href="http://www.randomhousebooks.com/books/176227/">distant events have inordinate effects</a> on their operation – think of a power failure that can incapacitate an entire corporate headquarters.</p>
<p>Office towers also have what I describe as a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Designing-To-Avoid-Disaster-The-Nature-of-Fracture-Critical-Design/Fisher/p/book/9780415527361">fracture-critical nature</a>; they’re subject to catastrophic failure when hit by an unanticipated force like a commandeered airplane.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136965/original/image-20160907-25231-btolu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136965/original/image-20160907-25231-btolu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136965/original/image-20160907-25231-btolu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136965/original/image-20160907-25231-btolu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136965/original/image-20160907-25231-btolu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136965/original/image-20160907-25231-btolu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136965/original/image-20160907-25231-btolu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136965/original/image-20160907-25231-btolu6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A souk, with many access points and a diffuse layout.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/bhaktiamsterdam/7426935774">Bhakti Dharma</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Taleb contrasts the familiar U.S. urban landscape with the Arab bazaar or souk. Comprising a network of small shops along covered streets, without any center or clear boundaries, there are multiple ways in and out. Souks might seem more vulnerable to attack, given their accessibility. Such complex webs of human activity, however, are also highly resilient – not just economically because of their diversity of small businesses, but also militarily because of their distributed nature.</p>
<p>In the heavily damaged souk in Aleppo, Syria, one businessman still <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/in-sight/wp/2016/03/29/witness-the-stunning-devastation-inside-aleppos-destroyed-souks/">opens his shop to serve coffee</a> to patrolling soldiers, an act of resistance as well as a sign of resilience. Can you imagine an accounting department on a bombed-out skyscraper’s 43rd floor, for instance, opening for business after an attack? </p>
<p>It’s significant that an Arab urban form, the souk, may serve as one of the best defenses against a type of attack emanating from the Arab world. Unlike most shopping malls that stand like isolated targets in the midst of parking lots, souks typically cover existing streets and turn them into pedestrian precincts, as Milan, Italy, did long ago with <a href="http://www.ingalleria.com/en">its Galleria</a> and as Las Vegas did more recently with <a href="http://vegasexperience.com/">Fremont Street</a>. The mall and the city become an integral whole. </p>
<h2>We’re already living with digital souks</h2>
<p>Souks may seem far removed from modern life, just as office buildings seem to epitomize it. But that’s begun to change with the rise of a sharing, collaborative or on-demand economy. Many people now work anywhere that has a high-bandwidth internet connection. We shop anytime for goods and services that are delivered to our doors. We meet anyplace some good food or coffee allows us to linger.</p>
<p>We have, in other words, already created a kind of digital version of the souk, with service platforms providing people access to experiences as diverse as those encountered by the customers in Arab markets. <a href="http://books.wwnorton.com/books/Platform-Revolution/">Such platform companies have great resilience</a> because of their accessible, distributed character and their ability to compete successfully against gatekeeper organizations. Look at how quickly Uber has overtaken taxi companies and Airbnb traditional hoteliers by leveraging excess capacity to meet people’s needs at a lower cost. These companies also exist everywhere and nowhere, not concentrated in an office building or a hotel, but spread across a city or region, in individual apartments and cars. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136935/original/image-20160907-25257-ro85jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136935/original/image-20160907-25257-ro85jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/136935/original/image-20160907-25257-ro85jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136935/original/image-20160907-25257-ro85jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136935/original/image-20160907-25257-ro85jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=350&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136935/original/image-20160907-25257-ro85jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136935/original/image-20160907-25257-ro85jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/136935/original/image-20160907-25257-ro85jk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Hey! Here’s where we keep our top brass!</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/la-citta-vita/6040339754">La Citta Vita</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Our greatest weakness comes from the old thinking that still pervades not just our military, but also our public policies and development assumptions. We continue to zone our cities as if the sharing economy didn’t exist, build our roads as if driverless cars won’t happen, and pursue economic development strategies as if the platform revolution doesn’t matter. And, despite the message that terrorists have sent us, we continue to maintain and construct targets for their attacks: The Pentagon remains a bull’s-eye from the air, as do the office towers recently built around the World Trade Center site. Such buildings may embody defiance and feel like proof of our resilience; really they only show how little we’ve learned from our enemies. A physically strengthened or more highly defended target is still a target.</p>
<p>The fight against terrorism requires that we start thinking in new ways about how to live and work in a 21st-century economy. Just as we need to acknowledge and embrace the distributed, on-demand nature of how many people will create and exchange goods and services in the near future, we also need to start imagining a more distributed and diverse built environment in line with that economy and in defense against those who might want to attack us.</p>
<p>America began as a nation of small shopkeepers and small communities scattered across the land. While the movement of people chasing economic opportunities to metropolitan areas seems unstoppable, we need to inhabit our cities and suburbs in much more networked ways. While this will take at least a generation to accomplish, we can already see it in trends like the home office, flextime, and walkable mixed-use neighborhoods. These should become the norm, even as we reduce, as much as possible, the number of big, symbolic structures that only tempt terrorists – foreign or domestic. We need to think souks, not office buildings.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64474/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Fisher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Are terrorist attacks also an implicit design critique of our urban landscape? An architect and urban designer suggests we can fight terrorism by not building obvious targets.
Thomas Fisher, Professor of Architecture, Director of the Metropolitan Design Center, and Dayton Hudson Chair in Urban Design, University of Minnesota
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/60757
2016-07-26T20:53:21Z
2016-07-26T20:53:21Z
Meet the ‘Yahoo boys’ – Nigeria’s undergraduate conmen
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/131610/original/image-20160722-26832-1qeb9vr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Internet scamming is proving to be an attractive career to a considerable number of Nigerian students.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Many undergraduates in Nigerian universities dabble in internet fraud. Nicknamed “yahoo-yahoo” after the international web portal and search engine, this perfidy has become a way of life for the young con-artists. Many of these fraudsters – dubbed “yahoo-boys” – have become filthy rich.</p>
<p>Some have been caught by the law. In April 2012, Olasaidi Dare, an undergraduate of the Olabisi Onabanjo University in Ago-Iwoye, <a href="http://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2012/04/02/court-jails-undergraduate-over-internet-fraud/">was sentenced</a> to five years’ imprisonment for an attempt to obtain money under false pretences in a cyber-café.</p>
<p>On June 5 2012, a Federal High Court in Kaduna State sentenced <a href="http://theeagleonline.com.ng/court-jails-undergraduate-20-years-over-internet-scam/">Imonina Kingsley</a>, of the University of Ilorin, to 20 years’ imprisonment. He defrauded an Australian of US$1,000 by presenting himself as a gay person from the Republic of Benin. He was charged for impersonation, possession of fraudulent documents and attempting to obtain money by false pretences.</p>
<p>These cases attest to the <a href="https://efccnigeria.org/efcc/index.php/news/252-efcc-arrests-2-undergraduates-six-others-over-internet-scam">pervasive</a> nature of internet fraud in Nigerian universities. My <a href="http://www.cybercrimejournal.com/tadealiyui2011julyijcc.pdf">own research</a> was conducted at Nigeria’s premier University of Ibadan. My aim was to determine how this subculture is organised among students in tertiary institutions. For this I spoke to a number of these “yahoo-boys”.</p>
<h2>Areas of specialisation</h2>
<p>Internet fraud is organised along areas of specialisation to make a success of the deviant behaviour. Fraudsters study the security network of online transactions to decide where to pitch their tents. Quick monetary reward is what “yahoo-boys” have in mind. They use different schemes.</p>
<p>Sending fraudulent messages to online dating websites and social network sites were reported to be low-risk – but high-profit – areas of specialisation.</p>
<p>A third-year student said to me: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>I started online fraud in my second semester of 100 level [a session comprised of two academic semesters in Nigerian universities] as an impostor via online dating. Then I looked for the profile of people that live in developed countries. But if it is in Nigeria, I look for people who live in places like Port Harcourt, Abuja [luxury suburbs]. </p>
<p>I always posed to them as a big man who needed a wife. Sometimes I posed to them on how my wife disappointed me and took away my property and children. All this is polished in a pitiable way with some pictures to convince them when I’m chatting with them. However, what I do mainly now is to transmit misleading information online for people to send their bank accounts [details].</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Another scam that is popular with the “yahoo boys” is <a href="https://efccnigeria.org/efcc/index.php/news/2028-efcc-raises-the-alarm-on-identity-theft">phishing</a>, a technique used to acquire sensitive information such as usernames, passwords and credit card details.</p>
<p>Third, the “yahoo boys” are also big on ATM fraud. They may stand at ATM galleries to feign assistance to vulnerable users – illiterates, the old and the physically challenged – and later swap cards to defraud them. </p>
<p>The fraudsters carry out their attacks mostly on weekends and mostly outside the state where the account is domiciled. Banks are mostly non-functional on weekends. This means victims will be unable to ask their banks to stop illegal transactions on their accounts until Monday morning, when the banks open for business, even though they receive debit alerts over the weekend.</p>
<h2>Informal networks and the insider factor</h2>
<p>Informal networks are vital to the young scamsters’ success. These networks revolve around banks, security agencies, co-fraudsters and, sometimes, families. </p>
<p>The common means of collecting fraud money in Nigeria is through the banks, mostly through the Western Union money transfer. Through compromised banking staff, fraudsters use fake identity to access funds. This is because the fraudster would have used a foreign name and would not have a recognised identity card in that name. For successful execution of fraud, an insider within the bank is important: the banker facilitates payment without attracting the attention of security agencies. They also get their share of the loot. </p>
<p>The instability in the Nigerian banking sector may have created an uncommitted workforce. Working in an insecure establishment makes workers vulnerable. More than 2,000 bankers have lost their jobs due to economic recession in the country. A large numbers of casual workers are deployed to man key positions in the banks. This makes way for criminal opportunities.</p>
<p>Therefore the “yahoo-boys” find easy allies in banking staff, who are mostly youths too, because of their socioeconomic nightmare. The fear of unemployment has been identified as a push factor for undergraduates’ involvement in internet fraud. </p>
<p>A fifth-year student stated that the fear of the unknown may have attracted a number of students to “yahoo-yahoo” rather than waiting for after-school unemployment. They see internet fraud as a creative outlet in a country like Nigeria.</p>
<h2>The influence of corruption</h2>
<p>Hitherto, internet fraud was carried out at public cafés. However, with regular raids on these internet cafés and the arrest of suspected fraudsters by the police, the “yahoo boys” have simply moved their bases.</p>
<p>Plus, the proliferation of internet service providers in Nigeria has made it even easier for scamsters to commit internet fraud. It is now as simple as buying modems and surfing the internet within the confines of their privately rented apartments on campus. The “yahoo boys” stay in physical communes of like-minded individuals and use this network to launch internet attacks. </p>
<p>They share information on a particular target and find new ways of making prospective targets yield to their deceit. They are able to get help, share internet costs and jointly pay for fuel for generators, which are used to power their computers. They come to school during the day, and go to social clubs in the evenings and to celebrate their successes. </p>
<p>It is no surprise that there is a proliferation of “yahoo boys”. The celebration of wealth, particularly among politicians, serves to motivate the involvement of the youths in cyber-crime. Nigerian society celebrates wealth without questioning the source of the money. </p>
<p>So what do these young, undergraduate Nigerians do under these circumstances? They see a leadership that doesn’t care about their future. And they use their education to follow the example set by their elders that shows crime pays.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/60757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Oludayo Tade is affiliated with University of Ibadan. </span></em></p>
Internet fraud – or ‘yahoo-yahoo’ – has become a way of life for some young Nigerian con-artists.
Oludayo Tade, Lecturer of Criminology, Deviance and Social Problems, University of Ibadan
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/55477
2016-03-03T11:18:58Z
2016-03-03T11:18:58Z
Will the next U.S. president close the digital divide for Americans without broadband access?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113596/original/image-20160302-25872-1jz27di.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">If they build it, will you come?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/docsearls/5500692848">Doc Searls</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Most of the 2016 presidential candidates’ policy platforms recognize the strategic <a href="http://broadband.about.com/od/speedissues/a/Do-Increased-Boadband-Speeds-Boost-Economic-Benefits.htm">importance of high-speed Internet</a> (HSI), or broadband, in <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/08/26/does-high-speed-broadband-increase-economic-growth/#5d61df8d18e2">transforming the economy</a> and <a href="http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:22231347%7EpagePK:34370%7EpiPK:34424%7EtheSitePK:4607,00.html">spurring innovation</a>.</p>
<p>The candidates appear motivated by a shared belief that high-speed Internet and HSI-enabled digital innovations – such as Uber, AirBnB, Amazon, Facebook, Google and so on – are driving economic growth and transforming society. The question then becomes what should be done to further unleash HSI’s potential economic and societal benefits. </p>
<p>The candidates approach Internet issues from different perspectives, dividing along party lines. Suggestions by Republicans <a href="https://www.tedcruz.org/issues/jobs-and-opportunity/">Cruz</a> and <a href="https://marcorubio.com/issues-2/marco-rubio-internet-policy-web-position/">Rubio</a> about minimizing Internet-related taxes and enhancing cybersecurity are indeed important. But these policy platforms are more relevant to the so-called Internet Haves than to the Internet Have-nots who aren’t online.</p>
<p>Only Democrats Clinton’s and Sanders’ stated policies aim to address the fundamental issue of the <a href="http://www.internetworldstats.com/links10.htm">digital divide</a> – the gap between those with digital technologies and access to high-speed Internet <a href="http://www.edutopia.org/blog/digital-divide-technology-internet-access-mary-beth-hertz">versus those without</a>. </p>
<p>However, is what Clinton and Sanders endorse enough to get all Americans hooked up to blazing fast broadband and all it enables?</p>
<h2>Current state of Internet access in the US</h2>
<p>According to the Pew Research Center, the home broadband adoption rate in the U.S. <a href="http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/12/21/home-broadband-2015/">dropped from 70 percent to 67 percent from 2012 to 2015</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113430/original/image-20160301-31020-1w4ws4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113430/original/image-20160301-31020-1w4ws4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113430/original/image-20160301-31020-1w4ws4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113430/original/image-20160301-31020-1w4ws4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113430/original/image-20160301-31020-1w4ws4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=894&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113430/original/image-20160301-31020-1w4ws4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1124&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113430/original/image-20160301-31020-1w4ws4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1124&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113430/original/image-20160301-31020-1w4ws4g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1124&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/12/21/home-broadband-2015/pi-2015-10-21_broadband2015-02/">Pew Research Center</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Cost is a big factor for those who aren’t connected. At the same time, the majority of Americans indicated that having home broadband access (rather than mobile Internet) is critical for many important life activities, including job hunting, access to health information or government services and so on.</p>
<p>Some families do rely on mobile phones as an alternative to HSI, mostly because of its greater affordability. But mobile service providers impose a data cap. And smartphones have limited capabilities compared to regular desktops or laptops, so mobile access isn’t a perfect substitute.</p>
<p>Those who do not have home broadband or who rely on mobile Internet as their sole HSI access are usually <a href="http://doi.org/10.1287/isre.1090.0256">socioeconomically disadvantaged</a> (e.g., lower income, education), racial or ethnic minorities, and/or rural residents.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pewinternet.org/2015/12/21/home-broadband-2015/pi-2015-10-21_broadband2015-16/"><img width="638" height="705" src="http://www.pewinternet.org/files/2015/12/PI-2015-10-21_broadband2015-16.png" class="attachment-large" alt="Percentage of adults who have home broadband."></a></p>
<p><a href="http://doi.org/10.1080/01972243.2012.689271">Research suggests lack of HSI limits</a> education opportunities, career development and social mobility.</p>
<h2>Platform plans</h2>
<p>Both Democrats aim to address the digital divide by offering broadband access to those who currently lack it. </p>
<p><a href="https://berniesanders.com/issues/improving-the-rural-economy/">Sanders’ platform asserts</a> that HSI is “no longer a luxury” and he casts the digital divide as a rural infrastructure issue. By missing out on high-speed broadband access, rural residents aren’t able to use it for “21st century commerce, education, telemedicine and public safety.” Sanders’ Rebuild America Act</p>
<blockquote>
<p>would invest US$25 billion over five years to expand high-speed broadband networks in underserved and unserved areas, and would boost speeds and capacity all across the country, particularly in rural areas.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sanders’ website doesn’t mention how he’d hope to finance this expansion.</p>
<p>Clinton’s platform, too, stresses that HSI is “a necessity for equal opportunity and social mobility in a 21st-century economy.” </p>
<p>Part of her infrastructure plan calls for connecting “all Americans to the digital economy.”</p>
<blockquote>
<p>She will finish the job of connecting America’s households to the Internet with a commitment that by 2020, 100 percent of households in America will have access to affordable broadband. She will also invest new resources in bringing free Wi-Fi to public buildings and public transportation.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Clinton says she will “harness both public and private capital” to make it all happen.</p>
<p>These free or affordable broadband access plans seem reasonable. But a critical question remains: will the digital divide be resolved simply by offering high-speed Internet access at low or even no cost to the have-nots? </p>
<p>My research suggests the answer is “maybe not.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113427/original/image-20160301-31030-1yz5zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113427/original/image-20160301-31030-1yz5zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113427/original/image-20160301-31030-1yz5zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113427/original/image-20160301-31030-1yz5zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113427/original/image-20160301-31030-1yz5zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113427/original/image-20160301-31030-1yz5zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113427/original/image-20160301-31030-1yz5zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113427/original/image-20160301-31030-1yz5zo.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Beyond access, new Internet users need support and training.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/70268842@N00/176800957">Colleen Taugher</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More to it than just hooking up</h2>
<p>The results of <a href="http://doi.org/10.1177/0894439309335169">numerous initiatives</a> that <a href="http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2575.2006.00207.x">aimed to address the digital divide</a> collectively suggest the digital divide is a multifaceted problem.</p>
<p>Take, for instance, the case of the LaGrange Free High-Speed Internet Initiative in Georgia. Even when the city made free high-speed Internet access available to everyone, only about <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/25148830">40 percent of the 10,000 eligible households signed up</a>. One cannot help but ask: it’s already free, why don’t you adopt it? </p>
<p>It turns out that for digital have-nots, the challenges go well beyond just the financial and material barriers. <a href="http://doi.org/10.1287/isre.1090.0256">The disadvantaged may also need</a> motivation, knowledge, skills and even confidence in order to use digital technologies. They also need social support that provides the needed assistance and encouragement so as to hop on the Internet. And they may not have opportunities for meaningful use of the high-speed Internet.</p>
<p>To help the disadvantaged cross the divide <a href="http://doi.org/10.1287/isre.1090.0256">requires an orchestrated effort</a> coordinating the various necessary resources – financial, technical, educational and social supports. </p>
<p>But once someone is online, it can be life-changing. Here’s how one physician described a patient from LaGrange:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>She was financially strapped, didn’t have any income. She was using this and actually for her, it brought her out of depression. Because she was very depressed, and she was able to make human contact with people all around the world. And she had friends she would correspond with in India and other countries.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Even when the digital divide is bridged for some have-nots, we still find inequality in the way people use the Internet. This difference in usage behaviors between the socioeconomically advantaged and disadvantaged is called <a href="http://www.webuse.org/webuse.org/pdf/DiMaggioEtAl-DigitalInequality2004.pdf">digital inequality</a> or the <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2673277">second-level digital divide</a>.</p>
<p>In particular, my colleagues and I found that the advantaged are <a href="http://doi.org/10.1080/01972243.2012.689271">much more productive in using broadband</a> to attain educational, economic, health, financial, social and political benefits.</p>
<p>In other words, access to high-speed Internet may wind up reproducing and enhancing existing advantages.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113599/original/image-20160302-25881-1tkvxok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113599/original/image-20160302-25881-1tkvxok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/113599/original/image-20160302-25881-1tkvxok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113599/original/image-20160302-25881-1tkvxok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113599/original/image-20160302-25881-1tkvxok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113599/original/image-20160302-25881-1tkvxok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113599/original/image-20160302-25881-1tkvxok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/113599/original/image-20160302-25881-1tkvxok.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">There’s still a lot more to be done after you lay some cable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/vattenfall/7466349584">Vattenfall</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The process is ongoing</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=28832">Municipal governments launch initiatives</a> to <a href="http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tele.2009.01.002">offer public broadband service</a> with an eye toward multiple benefits: developing a digital labor force, attracting new investment, bridging the digital divide, and harnessing opportunities for digital innovations.</p>
<p>But other stakeholders aren’t as excited. For instance, <a href="http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/news/2005-01-03-fiber-cover_x.htm">incumbent service providers typically criticize</a> these free initiatives as compromising their interests by offering competing service. </p>
<p>Some lawmakers (e.g., <a href="https://www.tedcruz.org/issues/jobs-and-opportunity/">Cruz</a> and <a href="https://marcorubio.com/issues-2/marco-rubio-internet-policy-web-position/">Rubio</a>) oppose such initiatives on the grounds government shouldn’t intervene with market mechanisms.</p>
<p>Even if a Clinton or Sanders administration is able to structure a deal that potentially serves the interests of different stakeholders – government, incumbent service providers, the digitally advantaged and disadvantaged – these initiatives typically encounter <a href="https://www.heartland.org/sites/default/files/municipal_broadband_policy_paper.pdf">financial constraints that endanger their continuation</a>. Any future economic downturn could also challenge the economic sustainability of such deals.</p>
<p>Successfully bridging the digital divide is complicated. Besides providing the financial resources and technological means, an effective plan would need to motivate and encourage the have-nots, develop their digital competencies, and provide technical and social support. </p>
<p>After connecting the disadvantaged to HSI, policymakers should be aware of the second digital divide – rooted in ongoing socioeconomic inequalities – and provide continuous training and community support. </p>
<p>Finally, a successful plan would likely structure deals that serve different stakeholders’ interests and are designed to sustain the initiatives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/55477/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>J.J. Po-An Hsieh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
The Democrats’ policy platforms address the fundamental issue of Internet haves and have-nots in the U.S. But research suggests just hooking people up to broadband won’t solve the problem.
J.J. Po-An Hsieh, Associate Professor of Computer Information Systems, Georgia State University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/54164
2016-02-15T03:20:38Z
2016-02-15T03:20:38Z
Ending the ‘arms race’ at the centre of utilities regulation
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110696/original/image-20160208-12837-8u4lq4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Energy network owners are frequently using legal battles to draw out the regulatory process.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">From www.shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Generators, retailers and consumers should be able to negotiate deals with energy, telecommunications and water network owners to keep the system honest, <a href="https://business.monash.edu/__data/assets/pdf_file/0005/404195/Rethinking-Utility-Regulation-in-Australia-Final.pdf">new research argues</a>. Utilities regulators are hamstrung by legislation that allows utilities network owners to drag out decisions and pass on costs.</p>
<p>The length of regulatory decisions and associated documentation has grown by over 2000% in some cases. Decisions regularly take several years to make and are also more complex and hence less transparent with no clear benefits to customers.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110283/original/image-20160204-3002-1eikwfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110283/original/image-20160204-3002-1eikwfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110283/original/image-20160204-3002-1eikwfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110283/original/image-20160204-3002-1eikwfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110283/original/image-20160204-3002-1eikwfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=542&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110283/original/image-20160204-3002-1eikwfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110283/original/image-20160204-3002-1eikwfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110283/original/image-20160204-3002-1eikwfg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=681&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data from published determinations available from the AER. ‘t.’ refers to ‘transmission network’, ‘d. refers to ‘distribution network’.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Legal battles appealing the regulators decisions have been especially frequent in energy and to a lesser extent in telecommunications. Energy network owners appealed the regulator’s decision 40% of the time since 2006. Not only does this lead to costs and delays, it also has increased the businesses’ allowable revenue by an additional $3 billion.</p>
<p>An alternative approach is needed to deal with the complexities of utility regulation. An example of this is a system that puts users at the centre of the regulation. The available evidence from <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421512005290">United States</a>, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509004339">Canada</a>, and in Australia (the <a href="https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjq693G9d_KAhULnZQKHUSYAF0QFggnMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.econ.cam.ac.uk%2Fdae%2Frepec%2Fcam%2Fpdf%2Fcwpe1218.pdf&usg=AFQjCNEtzFyJwuVjwy35IFXeXP2wlH3Vog&bvm=bv.113370389,d.dGo">Hunter Valley decision</a>) indicates that allowing negotiation between users and owners of these networks with regulatory backup can lead to quicker, simpler decision making as well as more prudent investment decisions and lower overall prices. </p>
<p>Generators and retailers are also likely to have a much better idea of what they need from the networks than the regulator. They are also much more likely to be knowledgeable about the optimal timing and nature of new investment in the network. They also have an incentive to keep these costs low.</p>
<p>The benefits of introducing competition and greater consumer choice are substantial. For example, the Productivity Commission’s 2005 <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/national-competition-policy/report">review of National Competition Policy</a> estimated gains to our national income from these reforms of 2.5%, adding roughly $40 billion annually.</p>
<p>The regulation of utilities is necessary because some of these networks, such as the networks of poles and wires in electricity, are well recognised monopolies. Legislation requires regulators such as the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) and the Australian Energy Regulator to establish an “efficient price” for utilities that reflects a competitive market.</p>
<p>However, such an approach to regulation is proving to be too difficult and expensive. The information and expertise needed by the regulator is just too great. Utilities network owners (with more information and knowledge than the regulator) have the incentive to get regulatory approval for higher costs. This in turn allows them to charge greater prices.</p>
<p>To capture higher prices, utility network owners can try to game the regulatory system in various ways. For example they can provide excessively lengthy and detailed information backed up by a range of experts, or they can provide it late in the regulatory process. Not only does this slow the whole process down; the regulator can risk being appealed if it does not adequately consider the information put to it as we have seen in the electricity sector.</p>
<p>The result can be an “arms race” of ever increasing use of experts and complexity and evermore resources used in the process.</p>
<p>A greater concern is that regulation appears to be contributing to a misapplication of resources in some sectors, particularly in energy and telecommunications.</p>
<p>For example, the asset base of electricity transmission and distribution companies has grown by 45% and 120% respectively in around a decade. The total increase in the asset base over this period sits at around $35 billion. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110285/original/image-20160204-3006-3kp9fx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110285/original/image-20160204-3006-3kp9fx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/110285/original/image-20160204-3006-3kp9fx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110285/original/image-20160204-3006-3kp9fx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110285/original/image-20160204-3006-3kp9fx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=484&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110285/original/image-20160204-3006-3kp9fx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110285/original/image-20160204-3006-3kp9fx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/110285/original/image-20160204-3006-3kp9fx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=608&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Data from AER State of the Energy Market Reports (https://www.aer.gov.au/publications/state-of-the-energy-market-reports)</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This increase cannot be explained by total electricity transmitted and distributed as this has declined since its peak in 2008. Nor can it be explained by number of customers or growth in peak demand. Some tightening of the reliability standards may have contributed to this expenditure but can hardly explain increased expenditure of this magnitude. Which begs the question – how can this cost be justified to users? </p>
<p>Requiring generators, retailers and consumer representatives to negotiate with network providers would not be without its challenges as they would have to actively engage with the regulated business in the first place. In the end, however, putting the primary stakeholders in control of their fate (and using regulators only as a backup to negotiations) will ensure decisions are made under the best possible incentives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/54164/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Joe Dimasi is has been involved in the regulation of utilities for two decades. He is a former Commissioner and Senior Executive of the ACCC and continues to work in the regulation of utilities.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter J. Lambert does not have any affiliations with any organisation that would benefit from this article.</span></em></p>
Generators, retailers and consumers should be central to regulating utilities because network operators are gaming the system.
Joe Dimasi, Professorial Fellow, Department of Economics, Monash University
Peter J. Lambert, Assistant Researcher, Monash Business Policy Forum, Monash University
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/50889
2015-11-20T05:45:17Z
2015-11-20T05:45:17Z
Are we ready for a world even more connected in the Internet of Things?
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/102605/original/image-20151120-10452-tr2pxt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">We are already connected in many ways through technology, and we're about to get a lot more connected.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kk/15693478146/">Flickr/kris krug</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine a world that is even more connected technologically than ours today.</p>
<p>That’s what the Australian Communications and Media Authority (<a href="http://www.acma.gov.au/">ACMA</a>) has done this week with a very timely occasional <a href="http://www.acma.gov.au/theacma/internet-of-things-and-the-acmas-areas-of-focus-occasional-paper">paper on the Internet of Things</a> (<a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/internet-of-things">IoT</a>). As well as identifying issues of direct concern to the ACMA, the paper also includes an overview of the technology and its capabilities.</p>
<p>The IoT is the bringing together of a very large numbers of devices, data and computing power through the internet. The internet at the moment usually has a human at one or both ends of the communication. In the IoT, most communications will have sensors, actuators, databases or cloud-based computing process at either end. </p>
<p>It is the linking of data from a large numbers of devices to the tremendous computing power of the cloud that makes the IoT so interesting. Sensor networks and machine-to-machine communication have been around for quite some time now, but has mostly been over the cellular telephony network or over short range, mesh networks such as <a href="http://www.zigbee.org/">ZigBee</a>.</p>
<p>Generally, the processing of data generated by these networks has been reasonably straightforward, such as pollution monitoring or device tracking. But the linking of these devices to the internet opens up many new possibilities. Large scale deployment of sensor networks will generate vast amounts of data which can be moved via the internet to be processed using the huge resources of cloud computing. </p>
<h2>Many applications</h2>
<p>There are potential applications in health, aged care, infrastructure, transport, emergency services among others. Terms such as “smart cities” and “smart infrastructure” have been coined to refer to the capabilities of combining large scale sensor networks with cloud computing.</p>
<p>So for example, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com.au/9-real-life-scenarios-that-show-how-the-internet-of-things-could-transform-our-lives-2014-8">smoke alarms might be integrated with fire services</a>. A rapid increase in the number of alarms may indicate (for example) an explosion in a factory. Data from the alarms along with the sequence and pattern of the alarms might be able to be processed to give information as to the nature, location and extent of the explosion.</p>
<p>The ACMA paper has some discussion of projections for the take up of the technology. These seem extraordinary. There is a reference to a recent <a href="http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/The_Internet_of_Things_The_value_of_digitizing_the_physical_world">McKinsey report</a> that estimates worldwide productivity gains of US$11.1-trillion a year by 2025.</p>
<p>Catherine Livingstone, chair of Telstra, believes that the changes brought by IoT will dwarf those we saw with the fixed line internet in the mid-1990s and the mobile internet in the mid-2000s.</p>
<h2>Billions more connections</h2>
<p>What is even more extraordinary is the expected speed of the take up of these technologies. Cisco expects <a href="http://newsroom.cisco.com/press-release-content?articleId=1621819">50-billion devices</a> to be connected to the internet by 2020 compared to the 15-billion currently connected. </p>
<p>There is certainly a great deal of activity in this area and consequently, there is some urgency in making sure that there is a suitable regulatory framework for it. This is what the paper deals with.</p>
<p>The paper is an invitation for interested parties to comment on ACMA’s plans for the area. The most interesting part of the paper is that describing ACMA’s current, medium term and long term IoT focus.</p>
<p>Current concerns include availability of spectrum, mobile numbers and information exchange. Spectrum refers to the frequency ranges available for wireless communication of the sensors and actuators attached to the IoT.</p>
<p>The precursor to the IoT is Machine to Machine Communications (M2M). This has relied primarily on the mobile telephone network. Back in 2012 ACMA made available a new mobile number range (05) to supplement the existing (04) range. If there is an explosion in the number of devices there may need to be additional number ranges.</p>
<p>Short range sensor networks make use of unlicensed spectrum such as that used by Wi-Fi. The paper looks at the suitability of existing unlicensed spectrum arrangements and the possibility of new spectrum in the 6GHz range being made available. It also identifies the emergence of long range communications (such as <a href="https://www.lora-alliance.org/">LoRa</a>) using unlicensed spectrum.</p>
<p>The other area is how “harms” can be addressed. In this context “harms” refers to issues related to breaches of privacy, security and other problems that we may not yet understand. Managing “harms” involves the exchange of information between parties. For example, dealing with a computer that is infected by malware may need cooperative behaviour between a number of parties. How will that be done in the IoT world?</p>
<p>Longer term concerns identified in the paper include network security and reliability as well as the capabilities of businesses and consumers to manage their devices and information. </p>
<p>All in all, the paper is a welcome addition to discussion on an increasingly important area.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>The ACMA is looking for feedback on the paper which <a href="http://www.acma.gov.au/theACMA/internet-of-things-and-the-acmas-area-of-focus">you can do online here</a> before Deecmber 14, 2015.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50889/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Branch receives funding for Internet of Things related research. </span></em></p>
Imagine a world that’s even more connected technologically than ours today. It’s coming soon and the Australian Communications and Media Authority wants to know if we’re ready for it.
Philip Branch, Senior Lecturer in Telecommunications, Swinburne University of Technology
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.
tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/46899
2015-09-04T04:44:11Z
2015-09-04T04:44:11Z
Mentoring the next generation of scientists in Africa
<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93663/original/image-20150902-14045-k2wr7a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Role models and mentors can help one learn throughout one's career. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">SHUTTERSTOCK</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Mentoring the next generation of scientists in Africa should start from primary school, continue at university and extend into the workplace.</p>
<p>We must encourage the majority of female African students to choose a career in science so that they contribute to the economic and social development of the continent.</p>
<p>Considering that Africa is still a developing continent, there is ample opportunity for careers in science that can contribute to science advancement as well as the continent’s socio-economic development.</p>
<p>Mentoring and <a href="http://www.stemrolemodels.org/">role</a> modelling should not be seen as two independent roles even though there are different forms of mentorship. Certainly, the type of mentorship and support one needs differs depending on the stage of one’s career. </p>
<h2>Encourage careers in science</h2>
<p>At school, subject choices matter. It is important to ensure that young girls are informed and encouraged to take up science and mathematics, subjects which open the world to careers in science. </p>
<p>One must consider careers in space science, astronomy, health sciences as well as skills in dealing with big data. A number of organisations, including the South African <a href="http://www.sawise.org.za/">Women</a> in Science and Engineering, support and encourage the women to participate in science and engineering.</p>
<p>The Organisation for <a href="http://www.assaf.co.za/about-the-south-african-owsd-national-chapter/">Women</a> in Science for the Developing World also promotes the participation of girls and women in science and technology in Africa. </p>
<p>As a parent I advise my teenage daughter and her friends to avoid choosing subjects, like maths literacy, just because they can get higher marks in them. We have arguments about what subjects help towards a successful future in science. One of the questions is usually around which career offers the best pay.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93657/original/image-20150902-14056-15gq2bq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93657/original/image-20150902-14056-15gq2bq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93657/original/image-20150902-14056-15gq2bq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93657/original/image-20150902-14056-15gq2bq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93657/original/image-20150902-14056-15gq2bq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93657/original/image-20150902-14056-15gq2bq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93657/original/image-20150902-14056-15gq2bq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Teach them young - the message of science should be sustained from primary school to tertiary studies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SHUTTERSTOCK</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>From the first degree to postgraduate level, mentoring plays a significant role in ensuring that women graduates stay on a chosen career path.</p>
<p>For example, the Women in Science and Engineering mentorship programme - a global campaign - targets young women at undergraduate degree level and prepares them for careers in science. One of the programme’s aims is providing leadership and role models to young women who want to pursue a career in science and engineering.</p>
<p>There are a number of programmes which offer well structured mentorship programmes for postgraduate students, postdoctoral fellows and emerging researchers and a number of universities have different forms of mentorship programmes, which include skills training. </p>
<h2>Building networks</h2>
<p>Emerging researchers should join a research group that they feel they can contribute to and benefit from. Most research programmes involve working in multidisciplinary teams, which requires one to learn communication, networking and inter-cultural skills.</p>
<p>Networks can play a significant role. Through social platforms one can remain in contact with some of the top scientists and researchers across the world. Sometimes these networks can even become useful when applying for grants. Here again it is important to look out for academic exchange programmes or fellowships which can enable one to work with excellent teams at many institutions. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93666/original/image-20150902-14087-oztaa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/93666/original/image-20150902-14087-oztaa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93666/original/image-20150902-14087-oztaa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93666/original/image-20150902-14087-oztaa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93666/original/image-20150902-14087-oztaa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93666/original/image-20150902-14087-oztaa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/93666/original/image-20150902-14087-oztaa0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Remain networked for a fulfilling career.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">SHUTTERSTOCK</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Creating enabling environments</h2>
<p>Looking back, my supervisor and mentor as I recall, never had to complete mentorship tracking and performance forms as we have to now but he gave me various tasks and opportunities to develop as a scientist.</p>
<p>These included invitations to co-author articles, handling administrative duties as corresponding author, preparing conference presentations, applying for grants, organising workshops and conferences, and opportunities for national and international travel. </p>
<p>Of course, I did not know that all of this would count but it helped me gain confidence early in my career. I still draw on these experiences in dealing with my students, colleagues and those that I mentor. Institutions must provide networking opportunities for researchers. </p>
<p>As a research director at a South African university, I spend about 60% of my time mentoring. Creating enabling research environments both at organisational policy level and leadership level is critical in order to achieve one’s goals. </p>
<p>Typical policies that contribute to how supervisors or mentors behave towards those their mentor or supervise include how performance in research groups is measured. </p>
<p>The methods used by bureaucrats running institutions has been labelled “bean counting” which has reduced the autonomy of academics. Academic Amanda <a href="http://www.amandagoodall.com/GoodallFeat_1%20March%202012.pdf">Goodall</a>, for instance, argues that allowing universities to be run by “bean counters and bureaucrats” is detrimental to academics’ originality and productivity. Hence it is essential to ensure that organisational policies are enabling.</p>
<p>Issues around authorship in research groups can become quite sensitive if not negotiated well in advance. My advice to students, postdoctoral fellows and junior researchers is that they must agree in advance on what their contribution will be and the order of the authorship. </p>
<p>In big groups the project leader has to manage this as part of the mentorship process. This way group members will not see themselves as “pawns” being used to advance one’s career, devaluing each member’s contribution.</p>
<h2>Balancing a career and family needs</h2>
<p>When I was a full-time academic (before joining management) I loved the flexibility my role as a mathematician gave me. I worked long hours but made up for those long hours during university breaks. I planned conference trips around school holidays so that there was less stress on work colleagues and my family.</p>
<p>My family helped in taking care of my children when they were young. My husband has always been supportive. Of course, I have struggled emotionally and sometimes had to make difficult choices. </p>
<p>But I have been exposed to a vast network of colleagues globally who continue keeping my research candle burning. I still find great fulfilment contributing to knowledge in my subject area and supporting younger faculty members to achieve their goals. </p>
<p>The issue of balancing a career and family needs came under the microscope at an East African Research and Innovation Management Association 2015 <a href="http://events.mak.ac.ug/events/earima-2015-conference-uganda">conference</a> in Uganda. Delegates agreed that organisations must have flexible gender sensitive policies, including promotion criteria that takes into account gender issues without compromising on quality. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>This article is part of a series on Women in Science, Technology, Engineering and Innovation in Africa by the South African National <a href="http://owsdsa.co.za/">Chapter</a> of the Organisation for Women in Science for the Developing World.</p>
</blockquote><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/46899/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sibusiso Moyo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>
Africa is a developing continent but there’s ample opportunity for careers in science that can contribute to science advancement as well as uplifting the socio-economic status of the continent.
Sibusiso Moyo, Director: Research and Postgraduate Support, Durban University of Technology
Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.