tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/north-sea-9420/articlesNorth Sea – The Conversation2024-01-31T23:08:48Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2209092024-01-31T23:08:48Z2024-01-31T23:08:48ZMining the depths: Norway’s deep-sea exploitation could put it in environmental and legal murky waters<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572593/original/file-20240131-19-meg6yo.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C2%2C1920%2C1276&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Icebergs floating in the ocean near Svalbard, an Arctic island chain on the edge of Norway’s proposed exploitation zone.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Christopher Michel/Flickr)</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/mining-the-depths-norways-deep-sea-exploitation-could-put-it-in-environmental-and-legal-murky-waters" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Norway has a reputation for environmental leadership, from championing <a href="https://www.cbd.int/countries/profile/?country=no">international biodiversity policies</a> to its wilderness <a href="https://www.regjeringen.no/en/dokumenter/outdoor-recreation-act/id172932/">protection</a> and ambitious <a href="https://www.regjeringen.no/en/dokumenter/nature-diversity-act/id570549/">biodiversity</a> regulations.</p>
<p>Now it is leading into another area, leveraging its long legacy of offshore oil and gas production into developing deep-sea mining.</p>
<p>In January Norway became the first nation to open its continental shelf to commercial deep-sea mineral exploration. The <a href="https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/norway-gives-green-light-for-seabed-minerals/id3021433/">approved proposal opens the door for “sustainable and responsible” exploration within an area of 281,000 square kilometres, roughly the size of Italy</a>.</p>
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<p>But determining what constitutes sustainable and responsible deep-sea mining could put Norway in murky legal waters by pushing the boundaries of several international agreements to which it is a signatory. Beyond legal action, Norwegian society, businesses and global politics will play a part in deciding how this controversial industry develops. Other countries, such as Canada, should take note.</p>
<p>While the current government of Canada opposes deep-sea mining and has issued a <a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/deep-sea-mining-canada-moratorium/">domestic moratorium</a>, there are <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67935057">Canadian companies lobbying</a> for this industry to open in international waters. But there are more than a few hurdles in the way of a booming deep-sea mining industry — and for good reason.</p>
<h2>Mining in the deep</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://www.sodir.no/en/whats-new/news/general-news/2024/norwegian-shelf-opened-for-mineral-activity/">proposal to authorize deep-sea mining</a> was initiated by the ministry that has overseen Norway’s huge offshore oil industry for decades. It was asked to map “commercially interesting mineral deposits on the Norwegian continental shelf” and found <a href="https://www.sodir.no/en/facts/seabed-minerals/">sulphides and manganese crusts</a> with high concentrations of copper, zinc and cobalt, as well as rare earth elements.</p>
<p>The technologies needed to mine manganese crusts differ than those needed to mine sulphides. Manganese crusts are mined by scraping thin layers of minerals off of the edges of the deep-sea rocks, said Walter Sognnes, CEO of deep-sea mining company Loke Marine Minerals based in Norway, whom I interviewed for this story. Whereas, <a href="https://www.sciencenorway.no/deep-sea-mineralogy-mining/heres-how-valuable-resources-can-be-extracted-from-the-seabed-theres-a-goldmine-out-there/2285672">sulphides are mined by drilling into the seabed using technology from the oil and gas industry</a>.</p>
<p>Norway’s Ministry of Energy believes that the minerals from deep-sea mining could both meet the demand required of the green energy transition and secure the supply. But opposing scientists and organizations <a href="https://ejfoundation.org/reports/critical-minerals-and-the-green-transition-do-we-need-to-mine-the-deep-seas">argue that this logic is flawed</a>.</p>
<p>Opponents of deep-sea mining say that it will <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-00088-7">irreversibly damage biodiversity and ecosystems</a>, and warn that it will <a href="https://thefishingdaily.com/latest-news/norwegian-fishing-slams-government-proposal-on-deep-sea-mining/">impact fisheries</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ieam.4071">cause sediment plumes, damage the seabed, increase pollution and contribute to several other spillover effects</a>.</p>
<p>If the Norwegian government advances deep-sea mining beyond the exploration phase, Sognnes expects that full-scale mining operations could be underway in Norway by the early 2030s.</p>
<h2>Norway’s continental shelf</h2>
<p>Under United Nations law, coastal countries have a <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/eez.html">200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone</a> extending out from their coastlines within which they have the right to explore and use the resources on the seabed and <a href="https://www.geo-ocean.fr/en/Science-for-all/Our-classrooms/Hydrothermal-systems/The-water-column">water column</a>.</p>
<p>This is true for Norway, however, in 2009 Norway’s request to extend its continental shelf was approved by a <a href="https://www.un.org/depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/submission_nor.htm">governing body at the UN</a>. This decision further added 235,000 square kilometres of seabed to Norway’s territory — though the water above the seabed is, crucially, not included as Norwegian territory.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A report on deep-sea mining produced by DW Planet A.</span></figcaption>
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<p>That means that Norway’s proposed deep-sea mining activities will take place on the seabed, under Norway’s jurisdiction. However, as professor of maritime law at the University of Oslo Alla Pozdnakova described to me, any mining activities on Norway’s patch of sea-bed will “inevitably affect the water column where the <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/03/1134157">(High Seas) Treaty</a> will eventually apply” — with potentially significant legal repercussions.</p>
<h2>The High Seas — or not?</h2>
<p>In 2023, the UN’s High Seas Treaty was adopted by more than 80 nations — including <a href="https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/worlds-countries-reach-agreement-on-conservation-of-marine-biodiversity-in-the-high-seas/id2965405/">Norway</a> — and is meant to manage the two-thirds of the oceans outside any one country’s responsibility.</p>
<p>Mining brings many complicated legal issues that could involve the High Seas Treaty, said Pozdnakova.</p>
<p>For example, any of the 80 countries that signed the High Seas Treaty could propose a marine protected area anywhere in the high seas. In theory, this could be an area that Norway plans to deep-sea mine.</p>
<p>It’s also important to note that while the High Seas Treaty has been signed by Norway, it has not yet come into effect. But the timing of the treaty being ratified by Norway could align with deep-sea mining operations entering an exploitation phase, said Pozdnakova, which could further complicate the legal and political landscape for Norway.</p>
<p>There are also regional agreements that could raise concerns.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.jus.uio.no/english/services/library/treaties/01/1-11/svalbard-treaty.html">Svalbard Treaty</a>, for example, is an agreement signed by Canada and 45 other countries. The treaty gives Norway sovereign rights over the archipelago. And it calls for equality between the signatories when it comes to maritime, industrial, mining and commercial activities.</p>
<p>Pozdnakova notes that there is some debate about the geographic extent of the treaty, which was signed in 1920. But depending on the treaty’s extent, some of the proposed area could overlap.</p>
<p>“Once some companies get a license…then immediately you have this issue going on about whether the Svalbard Treaty applies to this particular area and what it means,” said Pozdnakova.</p>
<p>The convention that protects the marine environment of the North-East Atlantic Ocean, known as the <a href="https://www.ospar.org/convention">OSPAR Convention</a>, could also raise concerns about deep-sea mining’s impact in the region from sediment plumes to impacts on fisheries and others. However, the convention does not prohibit Norway’s activities on its continental shelf, said Pozdnakova.</p>
<h2>Beyond the laws</h2>
<p><a href="https://savethehighseas.org/voices-calling-for-a-moratorium-governments-and-parliamentarians/">Several countries</a>, including Canada, France and others, have called for a moratorium or precautionary pause on deep-sea mining in “<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2023/07/canadas-position-on-seabed-mining-in-areas-beyond-national-jurisdiction.html">areas beyond national jurisdiction</a>.”</p>
<p>Norway opening its continental shelf throws a wrench in the moratorium movement, said Rak Kim, associate professor of earth system governance at the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University.</p>
<p>“I think that’s why it is such a disappointment that Norway has taken a different stance. Not because of the immediate impact that exploration might have, but it changes the political dynamic,” he said.</p>
<p>However, legal action is not the only way Norway could run into trouble in getting its deep-sea mining industry up and running.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/mining-the-seabed-for-clean-tech-minerals-could-destroy-ecosystems-will-it-get-the-green-light-209690">Mining the seabed for clean-tech minerals could destroy ecosystems. Will it get the green light?</a>
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<p>Sustainable financing could play a role — especially if there is societal push back. “We already see some examples of some banks, financial institutions not wanting to invest in these kinds of activities,” said Pozdnakova. “The implications may be quite serious through these indirect kinds of actions.”</p>
<p>If society wants to keep its status quo, making more electric cars, mobile phones and computers, there is probably a reasonable argument to make for deep-sea mining, said Kim. But “the more fundamental question is, is technology the answer to the sustainability problems that we are facing?”</p>
<p>If technology is not the answer, “then maybe society needs to make a fundamental transition to something else,” said Kim.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220909/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ashley Perl works as a communications specialist for the World Wide Fund for Nature. This article was produced independently of her work there but as part of her work as a fellow in the Dalla Lana Fellowship in Journalism and Health Impact at the University of Toronto.</span></em></p>Norway has become the first nation on earth to allow deep-sea mineral exploration. But opening this industry could put Norway in murky legal waters.Ashley Perl, Fellow, Dalla Lana Fellowship in Journalism and Health Impact, University of TorontoLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2210582024-01-19T13:03:19Z2024-01-19T13:03:19ZRed Sea shipping disruptions could be avoided in the future by using the Arctic – but it could spell trouble for fragile ecosystems<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569909/original/file-20240117-27-cvnsia.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=245%2C491%2C5127%2C3145&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/container-cargo-ship-on-icy-waters-752977432">Jean Landry/sHUTTERSTOCK</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Attacks by Yemeni <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/2e918f9f-bcb4-47e2-9c15-c70a2a8ade5f">Houthi rebels</a> on merchant ships in the Red Sea have hit world trade. Between November and December 2023, the number of containers travelling through the Red Sea each day <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/jan/11/global-trade-falls-houthi-attacks-merchant-ships-red-sea">fell by 60%</a> as ships moving goods between Asia and Europe diverted their routes around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa.</p>
<p>This route results in at least <a href="https://classic.searoutes.com/">ten days more</a> sailing time, so has caused freight <a href="https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-yemen-houthis-attack-ships-f67d941c260528ac40315ecab4c34ca3">prices to surge</a> and has triggered costly <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/tesla-to-halt-production-at-german-car-factory-as-red-sea-conflict-hits-supply-chains-3735e991#">delays to production</a>. The region has become a bottleneck for the global economy before. The Suez canal, a waterway that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, was blocked for six days in 2021 after a container ship called the Ever Given ran aground, disrupting <a href="https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2021_03_26_SupplyChainDisruption.html">billions of dollars</a> worth of trade.</p>
<p>The cape route has been used each time passage through Suez has been disrupted. But there is an alternative sea passage between Asia and Europe – the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920922002589">Northern Sea</a> route. </p>
<p>This route, which runs from the Barents Sea near Russia’s border with Norway, to the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska, may be a better option and will soon become available if <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202213">global warming continues</a> at the predicted rate. Nevertheless, it currently faces many challenges.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-red-sea-attacks-on-cargo-ships-could-disrupt-deliveries-and-push-up-prices-a-logistics-expert-explains-220110">How Red Sea attacks on cargo ships could disrupt deliveries and push up prices – a logistics expert explains</a>
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<h2>An alternative for world trade?</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/arctic-summer-sea-ice-could-be-gone-by-2035">Research</a> estimates that summer sea ice around the Siberian coast will be melted completely by 2035. Even if ice cover is not completely removed, the thickness of the sea ice – one of the initial barriers to Arctic shipping – has <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03088839.2016.1231428">significantly reduced</a> over the past four decades from 3.64 metres to 1.89 metres. Arctic navigation is thus expected to be viable by the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X21004966">beginning of the next decade</a>.</p>
<p>For shipments between Shanghai and Rotterdam, the Northern Sea route reduces the distance that ships will need to travel by around <a href="https://services-webdav.cbs.dk/doc/CBS.dk/Arctic%20Shipping%20-%20Commercial%20Opportunities%20and%20Challenges.pdf">3,000 nautical miles</a> compared to Suez and <a href="https://sea-distances.org/">6,200 miles</a> compared to the cape route. This would <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S096669231100024X">reduce</a> the amount of time if takes to sail between eastern Asia and northern Europe to 18 days (it currently takes 32 days via Suez). </p>
<p>Arctic navigation is also performed at very slow speeds – <a href="https://www.marineinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/The-guide-to-slow-steaming-on-ships.pdf">under 18 knots</a> (roughly 21mph). So, depending on sailing speed and the type of fuel used, a cargo ship that passes through the Northern Sea route could use <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X16000038">40% less fuel</a> and generate up to 80% fewer emissions than if it used the Suez route.</p>
<h2>But is it viable?</h2>
<p>Despite its advantages, Arctic navigation is highly seasonal, restricted to the months between <a href="https://www.ocimf.org/document-libary/94-northern-sea-route-navigation-best-practices-and-challenges-1/file">July and November</a>. Navigating ships through the Northern Sea route also requires an escort behind a nuclear-powered icebreaker ship. But the number of icebreakers is limited. Just <a href="https://chnl.no/maps/nsr-shipping-traffic-activities-in-may-2022/">five</a> operated on the Northern Sea route in 2021, rising to <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-launches-new-nuclear-icebreaker-it-looks-east-northern-sea-route-shipping">nine</a> by 2030. </p>
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<img alt="A photo taken onboard an icebreaker ship going through an ice field." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/569914/original/file-20240117-25-nk8mfb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Navigating ships through the Northern Sea route requires an escort behind a nuclear-powered icebreaker ship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/icebreaker-going-through-ice-fields-arctic-725163385">Katrin York/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The Northern Sea route also suffers capacity issues. So-called “mega-vessels” that have a capacity of around 20,000 containers are deployed for trade between Asia and Europe. However, the Northern Sea route is not able to accommodate mega-vessels due to the imposition of restrictions based on the depth of sea ice. </p>
<p>Nowadays, only vessels with a roughly <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569121001150">5,000 container carrying capacity</a> can easily navigate through the North Sea route during the summer.</p>
<h2>Fragile Arctic ecosystems</h2>
<p>Cargo ships that pass through the Northern Sea route would potentially generate <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1361920923002936">fewer carbon emissions</a> than ships that travel through Suez. But this alternative route is subject to other environmental challenges. </p>
<p>Arctic ecosystems take a long time to recover from disturbances like oil spills. Accidents in these sensitive regions may thus cause unimaginable marine pollution. </p>
<p>In 1989, for example, the <a href="https://www.marineinsight.com/maritime-history/the-complete-story-of-the-exxon-valdez-oil-spill/">Exxon Valdez</a> oil tanker ran aground in Prince William Sound, Alaska, spilling more than <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/who-we-are/technology-and-collaborations/energy-technologies/risk-management-and-safety/the-valdez-oil-spill">250,000 barrels</a> of oil into the sea. The oil spill <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/oil-spills-30-years-after-exxon-valdez">killed</a> billions of salmon and more than 300,000 animals from a variety of fish and bird species. </p>
<p>More than 25 years since the spill, four of these species (<a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/killer-whale">killer whales</a>, <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=kittlitzmurrelet.main">Kittlitz’s murrelets</a>, <a href="https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm?adfg=marbledmurrelet.main">marbled murrelets</a> and <a href="https://www.britannica.com/animal/pigeon-guillemot">pigeon guillemots</a>) have not been re-encountered in the region.</p>
<p>Many cargo ships also carry ballast water to maintain stability during various stages of their operation. Ballast water is taken on or discharged throughout the ship’s journey. This practice could potentially result in the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/18366503.2015.1093695">migration of invasive species</a> to the unique Arctic ecosystem.</p>
<h2>Routes are changing</h2>
<p>Despite these challenges, Arctic shipping traffic is increasing. Between 2013 and 2017, the volume of cargo traffic on the Northern Sea route <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-says-northern-sea-route-transport-270m-tons-2035">rose</a> from 2.8 million tons to 10.7 million tons. </p>
<p>In 2023, this had grown to <a href="https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/news/historical-record-of-the-northern-sea-route-the-cargo-carriage-volume-in-2023-exceeded-36-254-mln-to/">36.2 million tons</a>. And it shows no signs of slowing down. In 2024, Russia’s icebreaker fleet expects to conduct <a href="https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russia-says-northern-sea-route-transport-270m-tons-2035">1,747 escorts</a> (up from <a href="https://www.rosatom.ru/en/press-centre/news/historical-record-of-the-northern-sea-route-the-cargo-carriage-volume-in-2023-exceeded-36-254-mln-to/">1,218</a> in 2023).</p>
<p>The Northern Sea route is currently not able to accommodate the vessel traffic and amount of cargo that passes through the Suez Canal. But it could be a viable alternative in the future depending on how fast progress is made on tackling global warming and developing a regulatory framework for navigating the Arctic region.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gokcay Balci receives funding from the British Academy.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kemal Akbayirli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have disrupted trade between Asia and Europe – could ships cross the Arctic instead?Kemal Akbayirli, Research Assistant in Maritime Business and Administration, Ordu UniversityGokcay Balci, Assistant Professor in Logistics and Supply Chain, University of BradfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2173252023-11-09T11:29:54Z2023-11-09T11:29:54ZOffering oil and gas licences every year distracts from the challenge of winding down UK North Sea<p>New areas for oil and gas development on the UK’s North Sea continental shelf are to be made available through annual licensing rounds <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-opportunities-for-north-sea-oil-and-gas">subject to net zero tests</a>. These proposals by the UK government, outlined in <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-kings-speech-2023">the 2023 king’s speech</a> to parliament, <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/letter-climate-compatibility-of-new-oil-and-gas-fields/#:%7E:text=Whereas%20the%20evidence%20against%20any,and%20a%20presumption%20against%20exploration.">fly in the face</a> of recommendations by the Climate Change Committee – the government’s own independent advisers.</p>
<p>The move should not be summarily dismissed as “<a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/540768/annual-north-sea-licences-political-posturing-or-actual-stability/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%2520Voice%2520-%2520Newsletter%2520AB%2520Test%2520%255BB%255D%25202023-11-07&utm_term=Energy%2520Voice%2520-%2520Newsletter">political posturing</a>” ahead of a general election, however. It may cause significant damage, not least because it distracts from critical questions surrounding how the UK will transition to low carbon energy.</p>
<p>Licences, under the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/17/contents">1998 Petroleum Act</a>, are how the UK government grants companies exclusive rights “to search and bore for, and get, petroleum”. Companies are invited to bid for access to areas on the UK continental shelf which are pre-selected by the regulator (in consultation with industry). </p>
<p>The first such <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/regulatory-information/licensing-and-consents/licensing/">licensing round</a> was held in 1964. Regular rounds have been held since – the 33rd and most recent licensing round opened in October 2022. Despite the government’s announcement that year that <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/energy-uk-blackout-2022-truss-b2197790.html">over 100 new licences</a> would be issued, only <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/27-licences-offered-in-first-batch-of-33rd-oil-and-gas-licensing-round/">27 have been awarded</a> at the time of writing. The government claims annual licensing rounds will <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-opportunities-for-north-sea-oil-and-gas">encourage oil and gas production in UK waters</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A drilling flare in the North Sea." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558429/original/file-20231108-29-wwmfjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558429/original/file-20231108-29-wwmfjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558429/original/file-20231108-29-wwmfjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558429/original/file-20231108-29-wwmfjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558429/original/file-20231108-29-wwmfjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558429/original/file-20231108-29-wwmfjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558429/original/file-20231108-29-wwmfjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The government plans to introduce a bill aimed at granting new oil and gas drilling licences in the North Sea.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/drilling-rig-flare-north-sea-after-396696607">Henk Honing/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Wrong answer, wrong question</h2>
<p>The licensing system in place has arguably done the job of allocating access to the UK’s oil and gas. What’s questionable is whether, considering the climate emergency, annual licensing rounds will revive interest in what has long been a <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/8394/reserves-and-resources-2022.pdf">declining basin</a>. </p>
<p>Handing out licences on its own is insufficient to attract investment. There is growing recognition among financial analysts of the risks of <a href="https://carbontracker.org/terms/stranded-assets/">stranded assets</a> in oil and gas. <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-shell-pulled-out-of-the-cambo-oilfield-173183">Shell’s withdrawal</a> from the Cambo oil field northwest of Shetland in 2021 showed licence holders are willing to withhold their final investment decision if deemed economic or politically expedient. </p>
<p>The government’s focus on new licences is a red herring, as the bulk of remaining resources are in areas that are <a href="https://www.intelligencesquared.com/tides-of-transformation/">already licensed</a>. It will be regulatory approval of field development plans, via a process known as consents, that will allow these existing licences to actually start producing oil or gas. </p>
<p>The recent decision to <a href="https://theconversation.com/rosebank-shows-the-uks-offshore-oil-regulator-no-longer-serves-the-public-good-214651">approve Rosebank</a> (an oil field first licensed in 2001) is a case in point.</p>
<p>Annual licensing rounds will not ensure the UK’s energy security either. Recent licensing rounds have yielded relatively <a href="https://upliftuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Pipedream_Brief_30102023.pdf">small volumes</a> of gas that do not substantially add to UK reserves. Any oil and gas developed as a consequence of new licences is unlikely to come to market quickly and will be sold at international market prices. Producing oil and gas domestically has not insulated the UK from high prices. </p>
<p>The energy secretary, Claire Coutinho, has acknowledged that UK production “<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/energy-bills-oil-gas-sunak-net-zero-b2442312.html">wouldn’t necessarily bring energy bills down</a>”. The <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128689/mission-zero-independent-review.pdf">Skidmore Review</a> of the UK’s net zero plans and the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/letter-climate-compatibility-of-new-oil-and-gas-fields/">Climate Change Committee</a> have made clear that the most effective method of helping households afford energy is to “cut fossil fuel consumption … improving energy efficiency, shifting to a renewables-based power system and electrifying end uses in transport, industry and heating”. </p>
<p>New licensing rounds are unlikely to restore offshore oil and gas jobs that have been steadily lost over the years, and which may <a href="https://platformlondon.org/app/uploads/2020/09/Oil-Gas-Workers-Report-1.pdf">no longer be seen as a desirable prospect by workers</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Workers in orange overalls and yellow hard hats stand with their backs to the camera." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558432/original/file-20231108-23-36lbtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2880%2C1918&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558432/original/file-20231108-23-36lbtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558432/original/file-20231108-23-36lbtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558432/original/file-20231108-23-36lbtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558432/original/file-20231108-23-36lbtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558432/original/file-20231108-23-36lbtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558432/original/file-20231108-23-36lbtn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Offshore workers need training and support to transition to green jobs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/workers-helmets-factory-view-back-group-1038834505">Kichigin/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The government’s claim that two new “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-opportunities-for-north-sea-oil-and-gas">tests</a>” will ensure the compatibility of new licences with the government’s net zero goal, too, does not bear scrutiny. </p>
<p>The first, whether oil and gas imports are projected to be larger than domestic production, is a very weak test as it captures the UK’s default position and will lock in dependence on fossil fuels rather than accelerate the transition. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-opportunities-for-north-sea-oil-and-gas">second</a>, “that the carbon emissions associated with the production of UK gas [must be] lower than the equivalent emissions from imported liquefied natural gas (LNG)”, ignores the emissions associated with burning gas (known as scope 3 under the international <a href="https://ghgprotocol.org/">accounting protocol for greenhouse gases</a>). </p>
<p>These scope 3 emissions account for <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/77ecf96c-5f4b-4d0d-9d93-d81b938217cb/World_Energy_Outlook_2018.pdf">65%-85% of the total emissions</a> and are <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5b6y">often omitted</a> from statements about the lower carbon content of UK gas. Instead of comparing the carbon footprint of UK gas with imported LNG, pipeline gas from Norway would be a more appropriate (and lower-carbon) <a href="https://drillordrop.com/2023/11/07/reaction-to-oil-and-gas-plans-in-kings-speech/#:%7E:text=They%2520said%2520two%2520new%2520tests,offshore%2520industry%2520welcomed%2520the%2520bill">comparison</a>. </p>
<p>In any case, the UK oil and gas industry’s targets for decarbonisation set out in the North Sea transition deal signed in 2021 have been criticised by the Climate Change Committee as <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CCC-Letter-Advice-to-the-UK-Government-on-compatibility-of-onshore-petroleum-with-UK-carbon-budgets.pdf">insufficiently ambitious</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A large LNG tanker with 4 LNG tanks sailing along the sea." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558430/original/file-20231108-15-mwu636.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558430/original/file-20231108-15-mwu636.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558430/original/file-20231108-15-mwu636.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558430/original/file-20231108-15-mwu636.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558430/original/file-20231108-15-mwu636.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558430/original/file-20231108-15-mwu636.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558430/original/file-20231108-15-mwu636.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The government plan proposes the carbon emissions of producing UK gas be compared with those of imported LNG.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/blue-coloured-hull-large-liquefied-natural-1078242305">The Mariner 4291/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The prominence of oil and gas licensing in the government’s legislative plans is striking. Fossil fuel licensing is a potent political symbol, and not only for campaigners who have worked for years to get licensing onto the agenda. <a href="https://theconversation.com/keir-starmer-hasnt-really-called-time-on-north-sea-oil-and-gas-heres-why-207091">Sunak and Starmer</a> are now harnessing that symbolism for political ends.</p>
<p>A fixation on new licensing, however, is a distraction. It offers comfort in the possibility of conserving oil and gas production through developing new fields, rather than grasping the challenge of a rapid transition. </p>
<p>It leaves untouched the pressing issue of how to phase down oil and gas production from existing licences in a just and equitable way. It deflects from the enormous challenge of decommissioning offshore infrastructures, and the questions that need to be asked about what the North Sea is for and how it can sustain our collective future.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
<br><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeTop">Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead.</a> Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/imagine-57?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=Imagine&utm_content=DontHaveTimeBottom">Join the 20,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.</a></em></p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin Bridge receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gisa Weszkalnys receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>New UK legislation gives the wrong answer to the question of energy security.Gavin Bridge, Professor of Geography and Fellow of the Durham Energy Institute, Durham UniversityGisa Weszkalnys, Associate Professor of Anthropology, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2108462023-08-02T16:53:32Z2023-08-02T16:53:32ZScience shows the severe climate consequences of new fossil fuel extraction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540723/original/file-20230802-29-p10zec.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=1086%2C0%2C4904%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">An offshore drilling platform.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sea-drilling-platform-650001655">Mike Mareen/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The world has just suffered through its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/jul/27/scientists-july-world-hottest-month-record-climate-temperatures">warmest month ever recorded</a>. Heatwaves have swept across <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/heatwaves-wildfires-mark-summer-of-extremes">southern Europe, the US and China</a>, breaking many temperature records in the process. </p>
<p>Climate scientists have been sounding the alarm <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar3/wg1/">for decades</a> that this type of event will become more frequent as the world continues to warm. The major culprit behind this is the burning of fossil fuels. So it’s extremely concerning that the UK government <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/hundreds-of-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-licences-to-boost-british-energy-independence-and-grow-the-economy-31-july-2023">has announced</a> its intention to grant hundreds of licences for new North Sea oil and gas extraction.</p>
<p>Although burning fossil fuels to generate power and heat has enabled society to develop and flourish, we are now experiencing the unintended side effects. The carbon dioxide that has been added to the atmosphere is <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/summary-for-policymakers/">leading to a rise</a> in global temperatures, causing heatwaves to become hotter and downpours more intense. The resulting large-scale disruption and suffering is becoming ever more visible. </p>
<p>This warming will continue, with worsening climatic consequences, until we reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to “net zero”. After that, we will still have to live and suffer in a warmer climate for generations. The collective choices we make now will matter in the future.</p>
<p>The small-scale, but high-profile, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/05/just-stop-oil-activists-convicted-obstructing-highway-london">disruptions caused by Just Stop Oil protesters</a> in the UK are extremely frustrating for many. But their single demand – for no licenses for new UK coal, oil and gas projects – is consistent with the science underpinning the international agreements that the UK has signed. </p>
<h2>Temperatures are rising</h2>
<p>Since the 1860s, the scientific community <a href="https://www.rigb.org/explore-science/explore/blog/who-discovered-greenhouse-effect">has understood</a> that adding more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would warm the climate. And as long ago as 1938, the burning of fossil fuels was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2013/apr/22/guy-callendar-climate-fossil-fuels">linked</a> to the observed rise in both carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures. Fast forward to now and global temperatures are warmer, and increasing faster, than at any point in human civilisation.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1686479519438254080"}"></div></p>
<p>In response to the overwhelming scientific evidence, the UK and 193 other nations came together in 2015 to ratify the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/paris-agreement">Paris agreement on climate change</a>. One of the agreed goals is to limit global warming to well below 2°C, and even aim for 1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era. </p>
<p>However, the latest <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf">synthesis report</a> from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which all governments explicitly endorsed, paints a stark reality. If we burn all of the fossil fuels that we currently have access to, then global warming will exceed 1.5°C and may reach 2°C. </p>
<p>To avoid breaching the limits set out by the Paris agreement, some of the coal, oil and gas that we can already extract must remain unburnt. New fossil fuel extraction projects will make it even harder to stop further global warming. </p>
<h2>Build up renewable infrastructure</h2>
<p>There are other options. The UK government’s official advisers, the Climate Change Committee, have put forward a vision for UK power generation consistent with a net zero future. They <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/delivering-a-reliable-decarbonised-power-system/">say that</a> the UK could provide all of its energy needs by 2050 through a combination of renewables, bioenergy, nuclear, hydrogen, storage and demand management, with some carbon capture and storage for fossil gas-based generation in the meantime.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A family walking dogs on a beach in front of an offshore wind farm." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=323&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/540725/original/file-20230802-17-i9629h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=406&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The UK can achieve energy security without causing additional global warming.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/wind-farm-off-coast-yarmouth-family-1216647160">Nigel Jarvis/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If the UK followed the example of China and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-widens-renewable-energy-supply-lead-with-wind-power-push-2023-03-01/">rapidly increased</a> its investments in renewable energy, then it could achieve energy security without causing additional global warming. China emits the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions">most carbon dioxide</a> of any country in the world. But it is installing more <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidrvetter/2022/01/26/china-built-more-offshore-wind-in-2021-than-every-other-country-built-in-5-years/">renewable energy generation</a> than the rest of the world combined.</p>
<p>Rapidly reducing our reliance on fossil fuels, and not issuing new licenses to extract oil and gas, is the most effective way of minimising future climate-related disruptions. The sooner those with the power to shape our future recognise this, the better.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ed Hawkins receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council.</span></em></p>More than a century of research shows that burning fossil fuels warms the climate – that’s exactly why granting new North Sea oil and gas licenses is a bad idea.Ed Hawkins, Professor of Climate Science, University of ReadingLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2080522023-06-20T13:51:07Z2023-06-20T13:51:07ZAn ‘extreme’ heatwave has hit the seas around the UK and Ireland – here’s what’s going on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532919/original/file-20230620-5801-5u3n7d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C1375%2C714&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sea surface temperature anomaly around the UK and Ireland, June 18 2023. Areas in dark red are 5°C warmer than usual.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/map_full.html?lat=48.239370597945936&lng=351.20653253084697&zoom_level=2">NOAA / Google Maps</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One of the most severe marine heatwaves on the planet is taking place in the shallow seas around the UK and Ireland. That’s according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which has labelled this a “Category 4” heatwave. Rarely used outside of the tropics, a cat 4 heatwave means “extreme” heat.</p>
<p>Marine heatwaves are <a href="https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/marine_heatwave/">classified as</a> “prolonged periods of anomalously high sea surface temperature”, when compared to the long-term average for that time of year. And thanks to measurements made by satellites orbiting the earth we know that, in some areas around the UK, surface water temperatures are 4°C to 5°C above normal for mid June. </p>
<p>This is extremely unusual: buoys around Ireland and the UK have been recording sea surface temperature for over 20 years, and in that time it has never been this hot this early in the summer. </p>
<p>The heatwave is strongest in the northern North Sea, northwest of Ireland, and the Celtic Sea between Cornwall and southern Ireland. However, in other areas, such as the southern North Sea, the English Channel and the southern Irish Sea, the surface temperatures are only a degree or so above normal.</p>
<p>The two regions are <a href="https://research.bangor.ac.uk/portal/en/researchoutputs/tides-the-moon-and-the-kaleidoscope-of-ocean-mixing(7af72d26-81fd-456f-87fc-a771a58d4673).html">very different in oceanographic terms</a>. The latter areas tend to be shallower (30-40 metres) with stronger tidal currents and so the water remains well mixed from the surface to the sea bed, all year around. In contrast, the regions where the heatwave is strongest are deeper (80-100 metres) with weaker tidal currents. As the mixing is weaker these seas “stratify” each summer, with a layer of warmer water overlying the cooler deeper layer.</p>
<p>In these seasonally stratifying regions the heat from the sun only warms the relatively shallow surface layer, while in the mixed regions the sun’s impact is diluted as its heat is mixed through the ocean from seabed to surface.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1670181977067241472"}"></div></p>
<h2>Oceans are slow to warm up and cool down</h2>
<p>The temperature of the atmosphere can vary a lot day to day. You might find yourself wearing a jumper on Monday but shorts and a t-shirt by Wednesday. But oceans are different – their ability to absorb lots of heat means temperature varies slowly and extremes are rare. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.mccip.org.uk/sites/default/files/2022-11/Stratification.pdf">seasonally stratified regions</a> the stratification starts to develop in late May, with the maximum sea surface temperatures happening in August. At these locations you would still only expect the temperature to vary by 10°C or so over the whole year (in contrast with the atmosphere where such shifts happen in a matter of hours). </p>
<p>In this latest heatwave, the sea surface is up to 5°C warmer than normal two months before we’d expect to see the maximum temperatures. </p>
<p><strong>North Atlantic temperature patterns</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532921/original/file-20230620-8426-normee.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Graph of sea surface temperatures" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532921/original/file-20230620-8426-normee.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/532921/original/file-20230620-8426-normee.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532921/original/file-20230620-8426-normee.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532921/original/file-20230620-8426-normee.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=382&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532921/original/file-20230620-8426-normee.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532921/original/file-20230620-8426-normee.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/532921/original/file-20230620-8426-normee.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=480&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Across the North Atlantic, the sea surface is warming faster than ever before (thick black line = 2023; orange = 2022; grey lines = 1981-2019)</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/">NOAA / climatereanalyzer.org</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>I would speculate part of the reason for these anomalously high temperatures in stratified seas is that the surface layer is shallower than usual and so the sun’s heat is more concentrated (probably a result of relatively stable weather and lack of Atlantic storms crossing the UK in the past month). As such, these <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100448">already very warm areas will warm further</a> until a sufficiently strong storm comes along and mixes the heat down into a thicker surface layer.</p>
<h2>Fish may go hungry</h2>
<p>One reason this heatwave is so significant is because those stratified seas on the continental shelf around Britain and Ireland are some of the most biologically productive on the planet. They have long been an important area for fishing cod, haddock, mackerel and other species. Those fish eat smaller fish and crustaceans, which in turn feed on microscopic plants known as plankton. </p>
<p>At this time of year, these plankton are dependent on nutrients mixed up from the deep water into the surface layer. However, this year, this nutrient supply may be diminished, since the very high surface temperature means there is likely <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100448">stronger stratification and less mixing</a>. </p>
<p>A heatwave on the surface could potentially harm the deeper ocean too, and the fish that live there. These continental shelf seas are already suffering from a <a href="https://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/527795/1/02_oxygen_2020.pdf">decline in deep water oxygen</a>, which is partly offset by mixing oxygen-rich water from the surface. However, the fact that the surface temperatures are so high point to a lack of mixing between the layers, and in any case, warmer water contains less oxygen.</p>
<p>On a slightly longer timescale, we already know that climate change is <a href="https://www.mccip.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-07/16_fish_2020.pdf">affecting these seas</a>. Some warm water fish species are appearing in UK waters for instance, and native fish reproduction cycles and those of the plankton they feed on are no longer in perfect sync. This extreme heatwave may be a sign of further changes to come. </p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Rippeth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A thin layer of surface water has been baked by the sun.Tom Rippeth, Professor of Physical Oceanography, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2070912023-06-07T15:01:40Z2023-06-07T15:01:40ZKeir Starmer hasn’t really called time on North Sea oil and gas – here’s why<p>Keir Starmer <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/28/labour-confirms-plans-to-block-all-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-projects">recently announced</a> that the UK will grant no new licenses for oil and gas firms to drill in the North Sea if Labour wins the next election. </p>
<p>It’s a decision that would terminate the UK’s 60-year policy of offering up new areas of the North Sea for <a href="https://ukerc.ac.uk/news/offshore-oil-and-gas-continuity-or-transition/">fossil fuel extraction</a>. The Labour party has promised to clarify its energy policy <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/28/labour-confirms-plans-to-block-all-new-north-sea-oil-and-gas-projects">later this month</a>.</p>
<p>The plan has been criticised, for different reasons, by <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/23567095.aberdeen-jobs-fears-labour-plans-north-sea-oil-ban/">oil industry figures</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/04/labour-plans-to-ban-north-sea-oil-production-naive-says-union-leader">union officials</a> and <a href="https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/fury-labours-extraordinary-reckless-pledge-30097120">politicians</a>. But how consequential is it?</p>
<p>Labour’s challenge to the offshore industry is part of a broader public debate in the UK about what a desirable future looks like with a worsening climate emergency and after half a century of domestic extraction.</p>
<p>Longstanding principles of offshore oil and gas policy – such as <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/1022/mer_uk_strategy.pdf">maximising the recovery</a> of hydrocarbon fuels which it is cost-effective to pump – are being <a href="http://climatecasechart.com/non-us-case/greenpeace-v-north-sea-transition-authority/">challenged in court</a>. Opposition parties and trade unions demanded oil and gas companies pay a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/02/shell-profits-2022-surging-oil-prices-gas-ukraine">windfall tax</a> while consumers are saddled with high energy prices. </p>
<p>The independent <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/letter-climate-compatibility-of-new-oil-and-gas-fields/">Climate Change Committee</a>, which advises the UK government on meeting its emissions targets, supports the end of oil and gas exploration – and the Scottish government has embedded a similar position in its <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/draft-energy-strategy-transition-plan/pages/5/">draft energy strategy</a>.</p>
<p>Denmark, France and Ireland have already <a href="https://www.euronews.com/green/2021/08/12/the-end-of-fossil-fuels-which-countries-have-banned-exploration-and-extraction">declared a halt</a> to licensing and <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.org/">pledged</a> a managed phase-out of oil and gas production. The International Energy Agency <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050">found that</a> no new oil and gas fields (beyond those already approved for development) are required to meet demand under a scenario in which the world reaches net zero emissions by 2050.</p>
<p>Evidence of the <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03821-8">need for rapid cuts</a> to the amount of fossil fuels being extracted and burned is mounting. There is even a financial case for it, as fossil fuels and the infrastructure that produces them risk becoming massively overvalued <a href="https://carbontracker.org/terms/stranded-assets/">stranded assets</a> as demand falls in the transition to a low-carbon economy.</p>
<p>Labour’s reported position on licensing, then, is not a bolt from the blue. Starmer said in January, while on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, that oil and gas would play its part during that transition – “but not new investment, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/davos-2023-starmer-says-no-new-uk-oil-gas-investment-under-labour-government-2023-01-19/">not new fields up in the North Sea</a>, because we need to go towards net zero, we need to ensure that renewable energy is where we go next”.</p>
<h2>What’s in the pipeline?</h2>
<p>Labour’s plan would draw new licensing to a close, but it <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stand-back-from-cliff-edge-on-oil-and-gas-policy-keir-starmer-urged-7s0kqcx28">would not end</a> oil and gas production. There have been 33 licensing rounds since the mid-1960s, the primary means by which oil and gas companies gain access to the seabed on the UK’s continental shelf. The most recent opened in October 2022 and its outcomes have yet to be declared. </p>
<p>Large reserves of oil and gas are already covered by existing licenses and await decisions by the companies who hold them on whether to develop them. A Labour spokesperson has <a href="https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/23554333.scottish-labour-back-starmers-oil-gas-ban-despite-union-concern/">clarified</a> that it would not touch this substantial pipeline of projects, and that “existing licences will continue and using existing wells sensibly is baked into our plans”. </p>
<p>For anyone concerned about climate change, this is a major problem. Pressure from <a href="https://action.greenpeace.org.uk/stop-new-fields">Greenpeace</a> and <a href="https://upliftuk.org/">allied climate campaigners</a> is building on the regulator, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), to withhold consent – especially for large-scale projects such as Rosebank and <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-shell-pulled-out-of-the-cambo-oilfield-173183">Cambo</a>. From the Scottish government’s perspective, declining production in the North Sea offers a <a href="https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-energy-strategy-transition-plan-ministerial-statement/">glide path for a “just transition”</a> from a fossil fuel economy.</p>
<h2>Will Sunak go for broke?</h2>
<p>The immediate question is whether the government will seek to drive a big licence giveaway to lock in as many new fields as possible before a future Labour government ends licensing.</p>
<p>It’s possible. The UK prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has described the idea that the UK will not develop further offshore oil and gas fields as “<a href="https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/rishi-sunak-hints-at-go-ahead-for-controversial-rosebank-oil-field-4137866">economically illiterate</a>”. When the current 33rd licensing round opened in October, Liz Truss called for 100 licenses to be made available and <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/news/2023/33rd-round-attracts-115-bids-across-258-blocks-or-part-blocks/">115 bids were received from 76 companies</a>. The NSTA is expected to announce very soon what licences will be awarded. </p>
<p>It’s worth noting that the licences on offer are in what the NSTA calls technically mature but undeveloped <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/news/2022/nsta-launches-33rd-offshore-oil-and-gas-licensing-round/">cluster areas</a>. That is, areas which have known reserves, are close to drilling platforms, but which are not currently pumping any oil and gas. These sites were selected to enable expedited production, particularly of gas. </p>
<p>Changing licensing structures to suit company needs and encourage development could be another possibility. <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/licensing-consents/types-of-licence/">NSTA has done so in the past</a>. But any such measures are bound to come under scrutiny.</p>
<p>Scheduling a further licensing round before the general election seems unlikely. The <a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/505453/north-sea-licensing/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%2520Voice%2520-%2520Newsletter%2520AB%2520Test%2520%255BB%255D%25202023-06-05&utm_term=Energy%2520Voice%2520-%2520Newsletter">process is protracted</a> and absorbs substantial resources at the NSTA, which is also managing a <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/licensing-consents/licensing-rounds/carbon-storage-licensing-rounds/#tabs">new licensing programme for carbon storage</a>. </p>
<h2>What if Labour wins?</h2>
<p>The more interesting question is what an NSTA under Labour could look like. </p>
<p>Established in 2015, NSTA (previously called the Oil and Gas Authority) was deliberately conceived as a different kind of regulator – one with the expertise and powers necessary to stand up to the oil majors but, at the same time, a co-creator of value working closely with industry and government. This was partly enabled by setting it up as a <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/news-publications/news/2016/new-chapter-for-the-oga-as-government-company/">company</a> fully owned by the government. Starmer winning the 2024 general election would place the NSTA under the control of a Labour government for the first time. </p>
<p>At the core of NSTA’s work is an obligation to achieve the greatest possible net economic value from oil and gas extracted in the North Sea. This is an objective also embedded in the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/17/contents">1998 Petroleum Act</a>, which has now been paired with an effort to <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/6980/annex-2-the-oga-strategy.pdf">support the country’s net zero committment</a>. </p>
<p>At the moment, meeting net zero emissions from North Sea oil and gas primarily means reducing direct and indirect operating emissions (scope 1 and scope 2), for example, by <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/the-move-to-net-zero/platform-electrification/">running drilling platforms</a> on electricity from renewables, such as offshore wind, and reducing gas flaring and venting, as well as investing in carbon capture, use and storage. </p>
<p>Significantly, it leaves scope 3 (supply chain and customer use of products) and the underlying objective to maximise the economic recovery of oil and gas untouched. Scope 3 emissions account for roughly <a href="https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/77ecf96c-5f4b-4d0d-9d93-d81b938217cb/World_Energy_Outlook_2018.pdf">70% to 90%</a> of the total emissions from extracting, refining and consuming oil products and 60 to 85% of those from fossil gas.</p>
<p>Labour putting the climate at the heart of a new UK North Sea policy would imply a fundamental reimagining of existing regulatory obligations. NSTA already has the power to revoke licences if licensees do not meet regulatory requirements, although this is not often used (<a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/decom/502441/nsta-first-as-regulator-partially-revokes-brae-area-licence-after-fujairah-decom-default/">first time in May 2023</a> when a company defaulted on its share of decommissioning costs). </p>
<p>Removing the maximum economic recovery obligation from NSTA would probably require rewriting or unmaking the Petroleum Act. This is a step more profound and more laborious than the pragmatic decision to stop licensing. But it is one that could open up a more extensive public deliberation on the future of the North Sea.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin Bridge receives funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gisa Weszkalnys receives funding from ESRC. </span></em></p>Labour would still honour existing licenses to drill for fossil fuels.Gavin Bridge, Professor of Geography and Fellow of the Durham Energy Institute, Durham UniversityGisa Weszkalnys, Associate Professor of Anthropology, London School of Economics and Political ScienceLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2042052023-04-20T13:43:45Z2023-04-20T13:43:45ZRussian ‘spy ship’ in North Sea raises concerns about the vulnerability of key maritime infrastructure<p>A <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QFW3kLDo_M">new documentary</a> produced by a consortium of public broadcasters in Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway has revealed what appears to be a profound threat to maritime and undersea energy and data infrastructure in the North Sea and the Baltic region. <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-ghost-ships-prepare-sabotage-of-britain-in-the-north-sea-t2gll75t6">The Shadow War</a> includes footage of a Russian research vessel called Admiral Vladimirsky allegedly collecting data on windfarms, gas pipelines, power and internet cables.</p>
<p>The film, which has been widely <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/19/russia-ukraine-war-spy-ships-europe-energy-infrastructure/">reported in the UK press this week</a>, asserts that Russia is systematically mapping the vulnerabilities of maritime infrastructure in the North Sea. This would enable Russia to learn of any weak spots – for instance, the locations where underwater energy and data cables intersect, making it easier to mount a sabotage attack if the Kremlin deemed it necessary.</p>
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<p>These reports don’t tell maritime security experts anything they don’t already know. We have known for a long time that Russian forces are mapping maritime infrastructures, including wind farms, communication cables and pipelines. Indeed, back in the 1990s and 2000s, when Nato and Russia were cooperating on some security issues, Russian spying activities in Nordic waters never stopped. In 2013, I was taken on a Royal Navy vessel to the North Sea where part of its mission was to look out for Russian spy ships.</p>
<p>But since the occupation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 these activities <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/13523260.2021.1907129">have intensified</a>. Across European waters, including in Irish and Portuguese waters and the Mediterranean, <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_IDA(2022)702557">Russian vessels have been spotted</a> conducting intelligence operations.</p>
<h2>Nord Stream sabotage</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-how-an-attack-could-have-been-carried-out-and-why-europe-was-defenceless-191895">sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline</a> in September 2022, in which a core energy pipeline was destroyed in the Baltic Sea, raised significant concerns in the west about the damage a hostile power could do by destroying or disrupting this important energy or information infrastructure.</p>
<p>The culprit behind the Nord Stream sabotage has not yet been identified. But the latest reports show that these worries are justified.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-how-an-attack-could-have-been-carried-out-and-why-europe-was-defenceless-191895">Nord Stream pipeline sabotage: how an attack could have been carried out and why Europe was defenceless</a>
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<p>Nato and the EU have rolled out ambitious plans for improving the resilience of maritime infrastructure. Nato and the EU created new <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_212887.htm">working groups</a> and <a href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_211919.htm?selectedLocale=en">coordination bodies</a> to develop better protection strategies and coordinate between civil and military agencies. In March of this year, the European Commission published an ambitious action plan as part of the updated <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1483">EU maritime security strategy</a>. It foresees studies to identify the most severe vulnerabilities and better surveillance. But do these plans go far enough?</p>
<h2>Why the North Sea is so significant</h2>
<p>The gas and oil supplies of the North Sea are an important resource for the entire European energy market. The increasing focus on the production of green energy makes this strategic importance even greater. More than <a href="https://map.4coffshore.com/offshorewind/">40 windfarms</a> are based in the region, and with ideal conditions for wind energy, installations are continuously and rapidly expanding. The North Sea is hence vital to reduce dependency on fossil fuels and lower CO₂ emissions.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Map showing the movements of a Russian ship in the Baltic and North Sea." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522115/original/file-20230420-26-lqt44u.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The documentary tracks the movements of Russia’s ‘spy ship’ the Admiral Vladimirsky.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Shadow War</span></span>
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<p>But given what we now suspect about Russian intelligence and possible sabotage activities, the North Sea now needs to be seen as a vulnerable and critical strategic security space. A concerted act of sabotage, damaging underwater electricity cables, for instance, can do significant harm to energy markets. Cutting underwater data cables can limit internet connectivity including across the Atlantic, since important data cable connect for instance Denmark and the US. Repair at sea is costly as it requires specialised ships, which can only operate if the weather conditions allow. After all the North Sea is a harsh environment. </p>
<p>Recent Nato and EU initiatives centre on <a href="https://euobserver.com/opinion/156255">improving surveillance</a>. They aim at getting better at detecting suspicious activities, such as those reported by the Nordic documentary film. Satellites, radar and patrols – including by unmanned vehicles – CCTV on all infrastructure and contributions by maritime users, such as fishermen who report suspicious activity, can do much to <a href="https://www.safeseas.net/themes/mda/">improve the overall awareness</a>.</p>
<p>This can assist in rapid responses and can also be a deterrent. Information sharing between states and with the industry is important. Nato, the EU, the UK and Norway need to work closely together, as none of them can handle this on their own. Putting different sources of information together to identify suspicious patterns is needed.</p>
<h2>Importance of rapid repair</h2>
<p>What often gets too little attention is the question of repair. If an attack occurs, it is vital to be able to fix any damage as quickly as possible in order to return to normal. Not only that, but if there is a demonstrable repair capacity in the region it reduces the strategic value – and hence the likelihood – of such an attack. </p>
<p>But as of now, these key repair capacities – such as specialised repair vessels and cable depots are <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EXPO_IDA(2022)702557">severely limited in Europe</a>.</p>
<p>New models of how security policy and the industry can work together to develop strategic repair capacities are required. These might be public-private partnerships that operate repair ships and provide contingency for crisis situations. This would have the dual benefit of enhancing repair capacity and, perhaps, at the same time will give an opportunity to enhance the efficiency of infrastructure by reducing repair times in the North Sea and elsewhere more generally.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204205/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christian Bueger receives funding from the Velux Foundation to carry out research on maritime infrastructures. </span></em></p>A new documentary has tracked a Russian vessel apparently collecting data on energy and communications infrastructure in the North Sea and Baltic.Christian Bueger, Professor of International Relations, University of CopenhagenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1918032022-10-13T16:43:32Z2022-10-13T16:43:32ZClimate change: UK test for new oil and gas fields’ impact on emissions targets is not fit for purpose<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488993/original/file-20221010-24-q18bqz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4477%2C3357&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/offshore-construction-platform-production-oil-gas-604907687">Mr.PK/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Liz Truss’s government is expected to <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8146804f-770e-42ee-8435-72469f92b4fd?accessToken=zwAAAYOoHiC3kdOBRoBPdw5C7tOENXJGn5K0_Q.MEUCIQDA9yo1-D91MhA9iFLsmR0sQgE2B-l1eAQSXMyOi8rwiwIgXgU0RGep4uvNmw7b1QJIwqguvxIjdsuLMbf3Xmk0a8k&sharetype=gift&token=fcbdc7a0-f38b-4541-b710-5421468a8c19">fast-track permits</a> for new North Sea gas fields to boost fossil fuel extraction on the UK’s continental shelf. </p>
<p>In a recent letter, the Committee on Climate Change (an expert body that advises the UK government) warned the new prime minister that increasing gas production may shore up supplies this winter, but there is <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/62878120">not enough gas</a> to ease the <a href="https://nic.org.uk/news/nic-ccc-letter-to-prime-minister/">high prices</a> set on the global market or cut the UK’s <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f10b57f7-818a-4d3a-be7c-ad65fd3f87d3">dependence on gas imports</a>.</p>
<p>More importantly, continuing to explore for new oil and gas reserves and expanding drilling conflicts with the UK’s commitments to limit global warming to <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-should-ban-all-new-oil-and-gas-fields-172905">well below 2°C</a> and reach <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/report/hooked-on-hydrocarbons-the-uks-risky-addiction-to-north-sea-oil-and-gas-development-at-odds-with-climate-goals/">net zero emissions</a> by 2050. To assuage these concerns, the government recently confirmed the structure of what it calls its <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1105669/checkpoint-government-response.pdf">climate compatibility checkpoint</a>: a series of tests designed to check if new oil and gas licenses <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1105667/climate-change-checkpoint-design.pdf">jeopardise</a> emission reduction targets.</p>
<p>The checkpoint was first <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/north-sea-deal-to-protect-jobs-in-green-energy-transition">proposed</a> in 2021 as part of the North Sea transition deal, an agreement between the UK government and the oil and gas sector to work together to meet these targets. It led the world in terms of how comprehensively it <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042291/oil-gas-licensing-checkpoint.pdf">assessed</a> the climate consequences of new fossil fuel projects via six tests. But the final version appears to have reduced all this to a formality. Only three tests remain, and each seems designed to wave through new rounds of oil and gas exploration and production. </p>
<p>As researchers who study how the transition from fossil fuels can <a href="https://www.abdn.ac.uk/jtl">benefit workers and communities</a>, we believe the government’s tests will do very little to address the country’s climate goals – or move the UK away from expensive gas.</p>
<h2>What’s in the checkpoint?</h2>
<p>The North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) is responsible for issuing licenses for companies to look for and extract offshore oil and gas. It follows a <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/7105/the-oga-strategy.pdf">strategy</a> of “<a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/1022/mer_uk_strategy.pdf">maximising economic recovery</a>”, in other words, maximising the profitable production of oil and gas from the North Sea. A parallel commitment to ensuring the oil and gas industry reaches net zero in 2050 was added to this <a href="https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/regulatory-framework/the-strategy/">strategy</a> in 2021, but it contains no mechanism for assessing how to reconcile this with exploiting the UK’s oil and gas reserves.</p>
<p>Globally, the production plans of all governments promise to yield <a href="https://productiongap.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/PGR2021_web_rev.pdf">double</a> the amount of fossil fuel than can be safely burned to remain below 1.5°C by 2030, according to a report led by the UN Environment Programme. The UK government <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1105669/checkpoint-government-response.pdf">accepts</a> that “producers globally will ultimately need to leave some oil and gas in the ground in order to meet global climate targets”. It appears this will not include producers in the UK though, as the checkpoint <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1105669/checkpoint-government-response.pdf">rejects</a> curtailing oil and gas production. </p>
<p>The government’s strategy appears to be reducing demand for fossil fuels by increasing the deployment of technologies capable of generating and running on renewable electricity, like offshore wind farms, electric vehicles and heat pumps. But ignoring measures to restrict oil and gas production makes reducing demand much more difficult, as it keeps rigs and pipelines <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2020.1804315">in place</a> which lock in carbon emissions and undermine attempts to switch to low-carbon alternatives.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A worker stands atop oil barrels with a clipboard." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488994/original/file-20221010-17-783opp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488994/original/file-20221010-17-783opp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488994/original/file-20221010-17-783opp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488994/original/file-20221010-17-783opp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488994/original/file-20221010-17-783opp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488994/original/file-20221010-17-783opp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488994/original/file-20221010-17-783opp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Countries plan to pump more oil and gas than a liveable climate can withstand.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/male-worker-inspection-record-drum-oil-2056494920">Noomcpk/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The checkpoint does not have a threshold that would indicate a proposed oil and gas licensing round has passed the test, or any requirement to pass all three tests. The first test asks whether new oil and gas developments would reduce operational emissions (those that occur while a company is looking for oil and gas and extracting it). Companies are already obliged to cut these emissions under the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/north-sea-transition-deal">transition deal</a>, essentially duplicating an existing (<a href="https://www.endsreport.com/article/1713974/climate-adviser-warns-tougher-plan-needed-north-sea-oil-gas">and notably lax</a>) requirement. </p>
<p>The second test assesses how the UK oil and gas industry compares to those in other countries but does not require any specific improvement for the test to be passed. </p>
<p>The third test asks “whether the fuel being exported is tied to lower emissions than that of other producers”. Even if the UK became a net exporter of oil and gas (which is not expected), the checkpoint would effectively leave it up to the government to decide whether a new North Sea oil and gas project is compatible with its commitments to tackle climate change. In Monopoly parlance, it’s a get-out-of-jail-free card.</p>
<h2>What’s left out?</h2>
<p>In the draft checkpoint, the government <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042291/oil-gas-licensing-checkpoint.pdf">asked</a> a range of experts how <a href="https://www.offshore-technology.com/analysis/scope-3-emissions-reporting-oil-and-gas-companies-cop26/">scope 3 emissions</a> could be measured and monitored. These are the emissions that result from burning the oil and gas – in cars and gas boilers, for example – in the UK or abroad if exported. </p>
<p>They are by far the largest emissions associated with the oil and gas industry. Despite several proposed methods, and the government’s <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1105669/checkpoint-government-response.pdf">acknowledgement</a> that it would be possible to calculate the UK’s scope 3 emissions, the checkpoint does not include them among the final three tests. </p>
<p>The same fate met the test on whether new fields align UK oil and gas extraction with closing the <a href="https://www.sei.org/featured/uk-oil-gas-warming/">global production gap</a> – the gulf between how much fossil fuels countries plan to produce versus the levels that are needed to be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. </p>
<p>The government also scrapped the test requiring the oil and gas industry to invest in what it calls “energy transition technologies”, such as hydrogen or carbon capture and storage, abandoning any ideas that future oil and gas licensing will be contingent on companies committing to <a href="https://theconversation.com/could-liz-truss-allow-new-drilling-for-oil-and-gas-and-still-strengthen-the-uks-net-zero-target-190031">permanent CO₂ removal</a>.</p>
<p>The slimmed-down checkpoint is designed to inform the decisions of the NTSA, not bind them. As a result, there is no way to challenge in court a decision to open a new oil and gas licensing round, as long as the NSTA can demonstrate that it considered the information under the checkpoint. </p>
<p>This is a problem given that in the past two years, UK courts dismissed challenges to new oil and gas projects both under <a href="https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWCA/Civ/2022/187.html">environmental impact assessment regulations</a> and the NSTA’s <a href="https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/Admin/2022/75.html">maximising economic recovery strategy</a>, citing the absence of regulatory requirements to consider emissions beyond those that occur during production. </p>
<p>The UK’s oil and gas checkpoint is not a meaningful test for ensuring future oil and gas licensing meets the country’s climate targets. This makes the risk of a chaotic transition from fossil fuels more likely, one where climate targets fall by the wayside and energy workers are left to face an uncertain future alone.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/191803/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tavis Potts receives funding from UKRI, and a portfolio of charity, civil society and government funding sources. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daria Shapovalova works with and has received research funding from AHRC, British Academy, and a number of civil society organisations. </span></em></p>Despite once holding promise, the UK’s climate compatibility checkpoint has become a formality.Tavis Potts, Professor in Sustainable Development, University of AberdeenDaria Shapovalova, Senior lecturer in Energy Law, University of Aberdeen, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1863652022-10-12T15:49:24Z2022-10-12T15:49:24ZCoastal erosion is unstoppable – so how do we live with it?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489341/original/file-20221012-26-hll9p1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3888%2C2590&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Day</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A record storm surge in 1953 devastated much of eastern England’s coast, prompting prolific investment in concrete sea walls, wooden groynes and other engineered structures designed to protect the coastline from erosion. These measures brought a reassuring sense of permanence for people in previously risky locations. Houses atop sandy cliffs and tucked behind or among sand dunes went from being holiday homes to permanent residences, and new homes were built nearby. </p>
<p>But decades later, the east coast and other parts of England are still eroding – rapidly in some places – despite efforts to hold the coastline in place. </p>
<p>England has some of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-flood-and-coastal-erosion-risk-management-strategy-for-england--2">fastest eroding coastline</a> in Europe, particularly along the Norfolk and Yorkshire coasts. Historical records show that England’s soft and sandy east coast has always been subject to retreat. The numerous <a href="https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/weird-nofolk-ghost-bells-haunted-eccles-1562000">lost villages</a> beneath the North Sea are testament to this. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A beach lined with wooden groynes and other structures." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489345/original/file-20221012-14-ql1ktx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/489345/original/file-20221012-14-ql1ktx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489345/original/file-20221012-14-ql1ktx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489345/original/file-20221012-14-ql1ktx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489345/original/file-20221012-14-ql1ktx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489345/original/file-20221012-14-ql1ktx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/489345/original/file-20221012-14-ql1ktx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sea walls and other structures cannot hold the coastline together forever.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Day</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Back in 2018 the <a href="https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/managing-the-coast-in-a-changing-climate/">Committee on Climate Change</a>, which advises the UK government, calculated that around 9,000 properties in England are located in areas likely to be lost to coastal erosion by 2025. This number is projected to increase 15-fold by the end of the century, disrupting whole communities as more buildings, roads and farmland inevitably slip into the danger zone.</p>
<h2>Unstoppable – and necessary?</h2>
<p>A growing body of research warns that the speed of coastal erosion will be compounded by sea-level rise and other effects of climate change, such as more extreme storms and prolonged wet weather, as waterlogged soils increase the likelihood of sandy cliffs collapsing. Rates of erosion can be roughly but not precisely estimated, due to the complexity of coastal systems and uncertainty regarding how the effects of climate change will manifest. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A paved road ending in a sheer cliff edge." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488482/original/file-20221006-12-foygpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488482/original/file-20221006-12-foygpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488482/original/file-20221006-12-foygpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488482/original/file-20221006-12-foygpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488482/original/file-20221006-12-foygpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488482/original/file-20221006-12-foygpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488482/original/file-20221006-12-foygpz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Life in an eroding community can be unpredictable.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Day</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since the early 1990s, scientists have collected huge amounts of data in order to understand how the wind, waves, tides and storms shape coastlines. The evidence indicates that it is not possible or prudent to stop or delay coastal erosion forever and that in some places, it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9532-8">may even be necessary</a>. </p>
<p>This is because when soft cliffs such as those along the east of England retreat, they release a lot of sand which is deposited on nearby beaches, making them higher and wider. High and wide beaches absorb the energy of waves, giving some protection to cliffs, dunes and sea walls from coastal erosion and flooding. </p>
<p>The chief executive of the Environment Agency for England recently said it is inevitable that at some point communities will have to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/environment-agency-sets-out-roadmap-for-more-flood-and-climate-resilient-nation">move back from the coast</a>. So what does this mean for people who live in places where coastal erosion is accelerating, or where it can no longer be stopped?</p>
<p>At Happisburgh in north Norfolk for example, a section of old and damaged sea defences had to be removed in the 1990s to avert dangerous collapse. Rapid erosion of the beach and cliffs since the early 2000s has meant homes in this village being steadily demolished as the coastline retreats. As yet there are no arrangements to compensate people here, or other government policies to help them adapt.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A series of collapsed houses along a sandy outcrop." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488485/original/file-20221006-19-rx1fs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488485/original/file-20221006-19-rx1fs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488485/original/file-20221006-19-rx1fs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488485/original/file-20221006-19-rx1fs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488485/original/file-20221006-19-rx1fs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488485/original/file-20221006-19-rx1fs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488485/original/file-20221006-19-rx1fs1.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Uprooted.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Day</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Living with coastal erosion</h2>
<p>It is important to be realistic: homes, roads and other things which knit some coastal communities together will need to be relocated inland away from danger – and soon. But doing this is far from simple, and will certainly be <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1222469111">costly</a>. </p>
<p>Ideally, the kind of investment which erected coastal defences in the aftermath of the 1953 storm surge would be mobilised today to help these places move. This is a pressing issue – letting crisis and despair characterise life for coastal communities on the edge is unsustainable and unfair.</p>
<p>Slowly, things are changing. A network of coastal communities, local authority officers and politicians, academics and others have worked since the early 2000s to argue for what is needed to cope with and prepare for coastal erosion around England and Wales. Now, a new <a href="https://engageenvironmentagency.uk.engagementhq.com/hub-page/fcrmfund">pulse of government funding</a> could test these ideas so that in future, no community feels abandoned to the sea. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An abandoned building behind a metal fence." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488483/original/file-20221006-12-h8kp16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/488483/original/file-20221006-12-h8kp16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488483/original/file-20221006-12-h8kp16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488483/original/file-20221006-12-h8kp16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488483/original/file-20221006-12-h8kp16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488483/original/file-20221006-12-h8kp16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/488483/original/file-20221006-12-h8kp16.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Eroding coastal communities need reassurance and support.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Sophie Day</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Part of this work will be to begin the transition in eroding towns and villages on England’s east coast from a state of crisis to one in which people can begin to live feeling safe and confident. It must be systematically worked out how communities can move away from risky areas while maintaining homes, utilities and services, as well as preserving local heritage, culture and each place’s unique character. </p>
<p>As academics working alongside government agencies, our next challenge will be ensuring these time-limited projects translate into robust national policy and funding. Coastal erosion cannot be stopped, so we must help everyone relearn how to live with it.</p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Sophie Day receives funding from North Norfolk District Council (part of Coastal Partnership East) to support a part-time research secondment. She is also affiliated with the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert James Nicholls is director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, He receives funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the PROTECT project on sea-level rise (grant agreement 869304), the CoClioCo project on coastal climate services (grant agreement 101003598) and the REST-COAST project on coastal restoration (grant agreement 101037097). He also receives funding under the EPSRC-funded Infrastructure for Port And Coastal cities and Towns network (iPACT) (EP/W033933/1). He has contributed to research led by JBA funded by the Environment Agency to develop metrics concerning flood and coastal change resilience. </span></em></p>Moving entire communities threatened by rising seas isn’t as far-fetched as it sounds.Sophie A. Day, Senior Research Associate in Environmental Sciences, University of East AngliaRobert James Nicholls, Professor of Climate Adaptation, University of East AngliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1756792022-02-08T16:00:14Z2022-02-08T16:00:14ZEnergy prices: how COVID helped them to surge – and why they won’t go down any time soon<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445068/original/file-20220208-13-1t3qp66.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=30%2C40%2C3364%2C2320&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Prices heating up.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/gas-stove-flames-burning-burner-photo-348219953">Shutterstock/chromatos</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>After months of volatility and concern, it was revealed that energy costs for the average household in the UK will increase <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/feb/03/uk-households-face-record-54-energy-bill-rise-as-price-cap-is-lifted">by £693</a> this year. A steep rise, it came as wholesale gas prices jumped to about <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-data-and-research/data-portal/wholesale-market-indicators">300% higher</a> than at the beginning of 2021. These are historically high levels, never reached before in the UK. </p>
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<p>And like so many issues facing society at the beginning of 2022, the influence of COVID is never far away. For although household energy bills include taxes and green levies, a major reason for the recent upward trajectory of gas prices is to do with changes in supply and demand.</p>
<p>Put simply, lockdowns and social restrictions over the last two years, when so many industries and events were forced to grind to a halt, led to a decrease in <a href="https://www.iea.org/reports/covid-19-impact-on-electricity">demand for energy</a>. And as demand fell, so did supply. </p>
<p>Then, as restrictions began to ease, demand jumped. In particular, the hospitality and travel sectors <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/activitysizeandlocation/articles/coronavirusanditsimpactonukhospitality/january2020tojune2021">enjoyed a recovery</a> which contributed to rapidly increasing demand for energy. </p>
<p>But it is difficult to suddenly increase supply to meet a rise in demand, so prices went up.</p>
<p>The supply side of the gas market has become increasingly complex in recent years. This is partly due to international political factors, but also the drive to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and switch to more sustainable energy sources to meet climate change commitments. </p>
<p>This deliberate change, away from hydrocarbons in favour of sustainable sources like wind, biofuels and solar power, makes it harder for gas suppliers to predict market needs. In the third quarter of 2021 for example, the UK generated about 38% of its electricity <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1050013/Energy_Trends_and_Prices_statistical_release_January_2022.pdf">from renewable sources</a>, which was less than in 2020 due to substantially less wind. </p>
<p>Despite all of this, the majority of the UK’s electricity production still <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/total-energy-section-1-energy-trends">comes from fossil fuels</a>. And for at least the next ten years, gas will continue to be <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1043311/Energy_Trends_December_2021.pdf">an essential part</a> of the UK’s energy policy. Now more than ever, that comes at a hefty price.</p>
<h2>Reaching for renewables</h2>
<p>Until fairly recently, much of the UK’s supply came from domestic sources in the North Sea, but that has <a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/351578/north-sea-production-2030/">been in decline</a> since the turn of the century. Part of the reason for the decline is that the remaining UK gas and oil fields tend to be relatively small and dispersed around the North Sea. </p>
<p>So every time one source is exhausted, the producer needs to assess the case for starting up extraction from another source. But these sources are becoming less accessible, more expensive to extract from, and therefore less competitive.</p>
<p>As part of the response to climate change, there is now <a href="https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2195966-oguk-warns-against-uk-north-sea-licensing-ban">less enthusiasm</a> for offering the licenses to open new fields. But the problem is that the UK won’t become self-sufficient in renewable energy for <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58792261">many decades</a>.</p>
<p>It now is heavily reliant on foreign sources, especially Norway, which has substantial gas reserves and is relatively near, which reduces transport costs. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Oil rig on the horizon with sunset." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445073/original/file-20220208-25-1kmwney.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445073/original/file-20220208-25-1kmwney.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445073/original/file-20220208-25-1kmwney.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445073/original/file-20220208-25-1kmwney.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445073/original/file-20220208-25-1kmwney.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445073/original/file-20220208-25-1kmwney.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445073/original/file-20220208-25-1kmwney.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Calling time on gas extraction?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/oil-rig-silhouette-on-north-sea-252241360">Shutterstock/Lukasz Z</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But it is in the interests of gas exporters around the world to keep prices high, to maximise profits, so they have arguably been slow to increase production. (In the same way, Opec (the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) has limited the <a href="https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/opec-grapples-with-a-precariously-balanced-oil-market/21807510">supply of oil</a> to maintain price levels.) </p>
<p>A further supply problem involves the <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/files/docs/2020/07/ofg1125_price_cap_info_sheet.pdf">cap on gas prices</a> imposed by the UK government in 2019. This led to a number of providers collapsing when the wholesale gas price rose above the original cap, reducing competition in the industry. And although the capped price level <a href="https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/information-consumers/energy-advice-households/check-if-energy-price-cap-affects-you">has been renegotiated</a> this year to a higher level, it may still mean that prices charged by the suppliers are below the market rate.</p>
<p>All of this means it is unlikely that UK households will see a significant drop in energy prices any time soon, as demand continues to increase. Although it is dependent on international supply and demand, the current problems could continue for the foreseeable future. </p>
<p>Longer term though, there is a glimmer of hope from the government’s pledge to decarbonise electricity generation by 2035, with a rapid increase in renewable energy production. Current high prices for fossil fuels could and should act as a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0306261918300990?via%3Dihub">motivation to increase investment</a> in renewable sources, which would reduce the problems of supply at the same time as ensuring energy security and a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421505003149?via%3Dihub">gradual reduction in prices</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/175679/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bruce Morley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When entire sectors shut down, the demand for energy plummets.Bruce Morley, Lecturer in Economics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1737102021-12-21T13:33:23Z2021-12-21T13:33:23ZTo harness the North Sea winds, we must understand its complicated seabed geology<p>For any country blessed with easy access to the shallow and windy North Sea, offshore wind will be key to meeting net zero targets. Developing these wind farms is partly a challenge for engineers, but it but also depends on the geology beneath the seabed – and that’s where <a href="https://www.escubed.org/articles/10.3389/esss.2021.10042/full">geoscientists like us come in</a>. As the industry collects more data, the seabed geology is proving to be far more complicated, and revealing, than previously envisaged.</p>
<p>Over the past few million years of on-off ice ages, large ice sheets advanced and retreated over northern Europe many times. This altered the landscape and drove changes in the sea level. The UK’s current coastlines provide a snapshot of this changing landscape, but submerged under the sea is a far more complete archive of recent Earth history. </p>
<p>For instance, the Dogger Bank, a shallow region of the central North Sea with lots of potential for wind power, was dry land until just <a href="https://theconversation.com/doggerlands-lost-world-shows-melting-glaciers-have-drowned-lands-before-and-may-again-26472">8,000 or so years ago</a>. Fishing vessels occasionally drag up prehistoric tools and artefacts from the people who lived there. We now know much more about these cycles of ice advance and retreat thanks to huge areas of the North Sea being surveyed for offshore windfarm development.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438634/original/file-20211221-15-1j9ghk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="white background with red patches in lines" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438634/original/file-20211221-15-1j9ghk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438634/original/file-20211221-15-1j9ghk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438634/original/file-20211221-15-1j9ghk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438634/original/file-20211221-15-1j9ghk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438634/original/file-20211221-15-1j9ghk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438634/original/file-20211221-15-1j9ghk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438634/original/file-20211221-15-1j9ghk0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An example seabed cross section from the southern North Sea which reveals the layers of different sediment that will be intersected by turbines and cables.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from Eaton et al Journal of Quaternary Science (2020)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We are geoscientists who <a href="https://esurf.copernicus.org/articles/9/1399/2021/esurf-9-1399-2021.pdf">map these layers of sediment</a> below the seabed. Each layer can tell us something about the world at the time it was deposited. Some layers are glacial sediments, bulldozed by the movement and pressure of the overlying ice, and in some places glacial lakes that formed from water melting from the ice sheets. Other layers show that once the ice retreated, terrestrial landscapes formed with complicated networks of river channels that meandered through woods and peatlands. </p>
<p>As ice sheets melted towards the end of each ice age, rising seas flooded the landscape. We know this because sands and silts deposited during these warm periods contain seashells. This cycle of destruction as the ice advances, and repair as it retreats and the land was flooded, has resulted in a complicated arrangement of sedimentary layers. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438640/original/file-20211221-23072-1t9eabs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Three maps of seabed" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438640/original/file-20211221-23072-1t9eabs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/438640/original/file-20211221-23072-1t9eabs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=155&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438640/original/file-20211221-23072-1t9eabs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=155&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438640/original/file-20211221-23072-1t9eabs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=155&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438640/original/file-20211221-23072-1t9eabs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438640/original/file-20211221-23072-1t9eabs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/438640/original/file-20211221-23072-1t9eabs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=195&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Windfarm data from the Dogger Bank reveals submerged landscapes. A) Glacial landforms provide evidence of an ice sheet 23,000 years ago. B) The ice retreat left a low relief terrestrial landscape dissected by rivers that attracted early humans. C) Formation of a sandy spit as the landscape became coastal, prior to inundation by the sea, forcing the settlers to migrate.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Adapted from three studies the authors published on the Dogger Bank (lead author Andy Emery)</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By studying these past environments in detail, we can better understand how landscapes evolve in response to changes in climate. Research of this nature has been conducted onshore for centuries, but there the geological record is frustratingly fragmented by erosion and the imprint of human development. By comparison, offshore we can trace the transition from ice ages to warm landscapes across tens or hundreds of kilometres, in part thanks to the unprecedented detail of data collected to support offshore wind. </p>
<p>In the North Sea, this has revealed that multiple cold-warm cycles have left different deposits under changing climates and sea levels. These complicated ground conditions can make the installation of wind turbines and interconnecting cables highly problematic since <a href="https://geosolutions.leeds.ac.uk/wind-farm-case-study/">different types of sediment provide different challenges</a>. </p>
<p>While stiff glacial clays often provide strong foundations for turbines, coarse marine sands are easy to erode from around the base towers and can lead to instability. The peat that formed during warm climates, before the sea-level rise, poses particular challenges as its fibrous nature makes it hard to dig trenches and reduces the efficiency of the cables transferring energy onshore.</p>
<p>Detailed mapping of the seabed, at a resolution never before possible or even considered, allows the offshore wind industry to plan more efficient and bespoke installations at each windfarm site. And since the sea level fell by 100 metres or more during each ice age, many other submerged continental shelves currently earmarked for offshore development will have been exposed at one time or another. This changing landscape during the past few million years will have resulted in varied and complex layers of sediment at potential offshore windfarm sites around the world, whether near to or far away from former ice sheets.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173710/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Natasha Barlow receives funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (RISeR; grant agreement no. 802281).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Hodgson has received funding from Vattenfall to support a PhD studentship. </span></em></p>Millions of years of on-off ice ages have left behind a mix of different sediments.Natasha Barlow, Associate Professor of Quaternary Environmental Change, University of LeedsDavid Hodgson, Professor of Sedimentology and Stratigraphy, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1731832021-12-07T14:37:16Z2021-12-07T14:37:16ZWhy Shell pulled out of the Cambo oilfield<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/435867/original/file-20211206-17-bjom9y.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5991%2C3997&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/image-oil-platform-during-sunset-124714078">Dabarti CGI/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Shell has scrapped plans to invest in Cambo, a proposed oilfield off the Shetland Islands. The fossil fuel supermajor has been shedding UK assets for a while. It sold a large refinery complex in Cheshire <a href="https://www.shell.co.uk/media/2011-media-releases/stanlow-refinery-sale.html">in 2011</a> and US$3.8 billion (£2.64 billion) of North Sea assets <a href="https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2017/shell-completes-sale-of-uk-north-sea-asset-package-to-chrysaor.html">in 2017</a>. </p>
<p>But the decision to pull out of Cambo is different. Cambo is an undeveloped field rather than a mature legacy asset. Shell bought into it in May 2018 when it acquired a 30% non-operator stake. Climate protesters targeted the Cambo project in the run-up to COP26 – the UN climate conference hosted by the UK in Glasgow in November 2021 – <a href="https://smileymovement.org/news-list/Stop-Cambo-campaign">arguing</a> that new oil and gas developments are incompatible with reaching zero emissions.</p>
<p>Cambo may still go ahead. Shell’s partner in the project is exploring options to develop the field. But Shell’s decision to pull investment has left the government’s continued support for finding and producing new sources of oil and gas in the North Sea exposed.</p>
<h2>Undeveloped, for now</h2>
<p>Cambo is one of the UK’s largest undeveloped offshore oilfields. It was first discovered in 2002 by the US oil firm Hess, which drilled several appraisal wells before the licence passed to Siccar Point in January 2017.</p>
<p>One of several new oil and gas developers to invest in the North Sea <a href="https://blog.geographydirections.com/2020/10/12/north-sea-oil-new-owners-for-twilight-years-raise-questions-of-national-interest/">in recent years</a>, Siccar Point is a comparatively small company controlled by two private equity backers, Bluewater and Blackstone. Its <a href="https://www.siccarpointenergy.co.uk/about-us/our-strategy">strategy</a> is to accumulate stakes in <a href="https://www.siccarpointenergy.co.uk/about-us/our-strategy">low-cost, long-life</a> oil and gas fields in the UK with a view to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/siccar-point-ma-blue-water-blackstone-gr-idUSL8N27F785">bringing them into production this decade</a>.</p>
<p>Siccar Point retains its role as the operator of Cambo, with responsibility for managing development and production. The pandemic postponed Siccar Point and Shell’s joint final investment decision, which would commit capital to the project.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-partner-scrap-plans-develop-north-sea-oilfield-2021-12-02/">Shell’s announcement</a> that “after comprehensive screening … the economic case for investment in [Cambo] is not strong enough at this time,” came ahead of any formal decision from the UK Oil and Gas Authority, although it may have anticipated it. </p>
<p>The industry regulator supports the recovery of hydrocarbons from the UK’s continental shelf but may have been preparing additional environmental requirements, such as reduced emissions, for example, that would have raised costs.</p>
<p>More broadly, growing public concern about the climate crisis has heightened the reputational costs of pursuing new oil projects in the UK since Shell acquired its stake in 2018. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-59312510">The Scottish first minister’s</a> alliance with the Green Party and <a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/first-minister-nicola-sturgeon-sweden-wales-ireland-b965976.html">Scotland’s vague support</a> for <a href="https://beyondoilandgasalliance.com/">the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance</a> – a coalition of countries supporting a moratorium on drilling for new fossil fuels – may have played a role, too. </p>
<p>Several of Shell’s plans for the UK have already been thwarted. The government regulator for offshore oil and gas rejected its proposals for developing the Jackdaw gasfield. The Acorn project, designed to capture and store carbon dioxide in underground rock formations, and in which Shell is a partner, was not selected for fast-track government funding either. </p>
<p>Earlier in 2021, a Dutch court ordered Shell to cut its worldwide <a href="https://theconversation.com/shell-ordered-to-cut-its-emissions-why-this-ruling-could-affect-almost-any-major-company-in-the-world-161754">CO₂ emissions by 45%</a> by 2030, and the company continues to struggle with its history in Nigeria. The UK Supreme Court ruled that Nigerian communities can <a href="https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/uk-supreme-court-rules-that-polluted-nigerian-communities-can-sue-royal-dutch-shell-in-the-english-courts/">sue Shell directly</a> rather than its Nigerian subsidiary. A US activist hedge fund recently proposed splitting Shell’s legacy business from its newer investments in <a href="https://carbontracker.org/reports/shell-and-third-point-spinning-off-the-sector/">liquefied natural gas and renewables</a>. Shell will have been keen to reassure investors that its future is not at the whim of activists and regulators, but decided internally. </p>
<p>Walking away from <a href="https://www.siccarpointenergy.co.uk/our-portfolio/corona-ridge-area">170 million barrels of oil</a> may seem like a big deal, but it is unlikely to ruffle Shell’s investors. The company’s share of Cambo represents <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c457f627-23b5-4409-b3a9-b42c00eaa275">a fortnight’s worth</a> of its total global production, but it would be spread over 25 years. Shell continues to explore for new fossil fuels <a href="https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/kosmos-energy-announces-farm-down-portfolio-exploration-assets">elsewhere</a>. </p>
<p>Oil companies with multiple fields weigh up an investment case like Cambo against other possibilities for replacing reserves and reducing costs. One interpretation of Shell’s announcement is that it weighed Cambo’s potential returns against its reputational value, plus the cost of tying up capital in the long and contested process of developing a large oil project in the North Sea.</p>
<h2>Shell’s decision doesn’t close the door</h2>
<p>It is too soon to count Cambo out, although Shell’s decision has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/03/shell-u-turn-cambo-could-mean-end-big-north-sea-oil-projects">knocked investor confidence</a> in North Sea oil and gas. The government’s recent North Sea transition deal views investment in the basin, including in so-called frontier areas with undeveloped reserves like west of Shetland, as critical to <a href="https://ukerc.ac.uk/news/offshore-oil-and-gas-continuity-or-transition/">a successful energy transition</a>.</p>
<p>Siccar Point is committed to <a href="https://www.siccarpointenergy.co.uk/uploads/20211202_Cambo_Shell.pdf">pursuing the project</a> but it will need new partners to match the technical and financial challenge Cambo presents. The spate of acquisitions on the UK continental shelf over the past few years suggests buyers for Shell’s share are out there. Shell’s “uneconomic” verdict on Cambo is significant, although not because it presages a wholesale retreat of investment from hydrocarbon production. Rather, it shows a growing differentiation among companies in the sector in how they evaluate wider business risks in responding to net zero obligations. </p>
<p>Long-standing, publicly listed firms are moving away from producing oil from the UK offshore, either divesting from the UK entirely or gradually shifting their UK portfolios towards gas and renewables. In turn, a diverse group of new firms are moving in, backed by private equity and overseas state investment funds and attracted to oil assets. The UK government’s goal of maintaining investment in oil while reducing emissions increasingly relies on firms whose connections to the UK are limited, and whose willingness to respond to net zero obligations remains to be seen.</p>
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<img alt="Imagine weekly climate newsletter" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/434988/original/file-20211201-21-13avx6y.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><strong><em>Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?</em></strong>
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<hr><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/173183/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gavin Bridge receives funding from UKRI, Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gisa Weszkalnys receives funding from UKRI, Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tiago Teixeira receives funding from UKRI, Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>Shell’s withdrawal highlights unresolved tensions on the road to net zero.Gavin Bridge, Professor of Geography and Fellow of the Durham Energy Institute, Durham UniversityGisa Weszkalnys, Associate Professor of Anthropology, London School of Economics and Political ScienceTiago Teixeira, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Geography, Durham UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1671962021-09-03T06:18:24Z2021-09-03T06:18:24ZAustralia’s first offshore wind farm bill was a long time coming, but here are 4 reasons it’s not up to scratch yet<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419203/original/file-20210903-19-1lai5sh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=13%2C13%2C4479%2C2977&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>After years of waiting, the federal government <a href="https://www.minister.industry.gov.au/ministers/taylor/media-releases/introducing-legislation-unlock-investment-offshore-energy-projects">finally introduced</a> Australia’s first offshore electricity legislation in parliament yesterday. The bill will establish a regulatory framework for the offshore wind industry, paving the way for more than ten proposed projects.</p>
<p>Australia’s wind resources are among the world’s best, comparable to the North Sea between Britain and Europe where offshore energy is an <a href="https://northsearegion.eu/northsee/e-energy/offshore-renewable-energy-industry-outlook-2030-and-beyond/">established industry</a>. In fact, <a href="https://blueeconomycrc.com.au/offshore-wind-key-to-australias-clean-energy-future/">research from July</a> found if all the proposed offshore wind farms were built, their combined energy capacity would be <a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-off-the-coast-could-help-australia-become-an-energy-superpower-research-finds-164590">greater than</a> all of Australia’s coal-fired power plants. </p>
<p>But Australia’s lack of legal framework has meant we’re yet to commission our first offshore wind farm. </p>
<p>The new legislation took years of stakeholder anticipation leading to public consultation in <a href="https://consult.industry.gov.au/offshore-exploration/offshore-clean-energy-infrastructure/">2020</a>, but upon first reading one is left a little wanting. We find four reasons the bill isn’t up to scratch yet, from its inadequate safety provisions to vague wording around Native Title rights and interests.</p>
<h2>A huge opportunity</h2>
<p>The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/files/irena/agency/publication/2019/oct/irena_future_of_wind_2019.pdf">identifies offshore wind</a> as key in the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy, calling for the world’s offshore wind capacity to increase ten-fold, to 45 gigawatts per year by 2050. </p>
<p>In line with IRENA’s position, many of Australia’s trading partners have ambitious targets for offshore wind, including the UK, US, European Union, Korea and Japan. For example, the UK’s target is to reach a total of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-plans-to-make-uk-world-leader-in-green-energy">40 gigawatts</a> of offshore wind energy by 2030.</p>
<p>This new bill is Australia’s attempt to join its partners. It will give offshore electricity projects the framework for construction, operation, maintenance, and more. </p>
<p>One project, for example, is the <a href="https://www.starofthesouth.com.au/">Star of the South</a>, which plans to build an offshore wind farm off the coast of Gippsland in Victoria. This project has the potential to supply <a href="https://www.starofthesouth.com.au/project-overview">20% of the state’s energy needs</a>. Like Australia’s other <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/offshore-wind-farm-map-of-australia/">12 proposed offshore wind projects</a>, it has been waiting on an appropriate regulatory framework to go ahead. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-turbines-off-the-coast-could-help-australia-become-an-energy-superpower-research-finds-164590">Wind turbines off the coast could help Australia become an energy superpower, research finds</a>
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<p>Offshore wind is essential to help Australia cut its greenhouse gas emissions and create a sustainable and affordable electricity market. Indeed, the <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/legislation/ems/r6774_ems_cc98aab2-2ad3-4a63-a200-e17e715e7da5/upload_pdf/JC003413.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf">explanatory memorandum that accompanies the bill</a> notes that if passed, the legislation will establish certainty that investors crave, potentially leading to billions of dollars worth of investment.</p>
<p>Wind energy infrastructure projects will also create thousands of jobs. <a href="https://blueeconomycrc.com.au/offshore-wind-key-to-australias-clean-energy-future/">Recent estimates suggest</a> the offshore wind industry could create as much as 8,000 jobs each year from 2030. The Star of the South alone <a href="https://www.starofthesouth.com.au/project-benefits">expects to create</a> 2,000 direct jobs in Victoria over its lifetime, including 200 ongoing local jobs. </p>
<h2>But the bill doesn’t go far enough</h2>
<p>This bill represents a first attempt to establish a world-class regulatory regime. But does it? </p>
<p>Well, first of all it didn’t get off to a good start. In 2020, the government committed to having the legislation settings and framework in place <a href="https://reneweconomy.com.au/offshore-wind-taylor-pushed-to-remove-regulatory-blocks-to-new-technology/">by mid 2021</a>. This target was not delivered. </p>
<p>And upon closer examination of the bill, we find critical omissions compared to best practice in North Sea jurisdictions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419199/original/file-20210903-26-158ls9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A ship outside turbines at sunset" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419199/original/file-20210903-26-158ls9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419199/original/file-20210903-26-158ls9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419199/original/file-20210903-26-158ls9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419199/original/file-20210903-26-158ls9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=332&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419199/original/file-20210903-26-158ls9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419199/original/file-20210903-26-158ls9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419199/original/file-20210903-26-158ls9h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=418&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Offshore wind is essential to help Australia cut its greenhouse gas emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p><strong>1. Weak protections for the environment</strong></p>
<p>To protect the environment, projects need to create a management plan that complies with requirements under the federal environment law. But this won’t ensure marine life is unharmed by enormous, noisy turbines. </p>
<p>According to a major, independent <a href="https://epbcactreview.environment.gov.au/resources/final-report">review earlier this year</a>, Australia’s environment law is <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-report-excoriated-australias-environment-laws-sussan-leys-response-is-confused-and-risky-154254">outdated and flawed</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-major-report-excoriated-australias-environment-laws-sussan-leys-response-is-confused-and-risky-154254">A major report excoriated Australia's environment laws. Sussan Ley's response is confused and risky</a>
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<p>It only addresses <a href="https://www.environment.gov.au/epbc/what-is-protected">select environmental issues</a>. The law is far too broad to deal with the unique requirements of offshore wind turbines, which Australian waters have never experienced before. </p>
<p>For example, under the bill’s broad management plan requirements, many environmental issues such as underwater noise and impacts on fish spawning would likely not be addressed.</p>
<p>Compare this to jurisdictions in the North Sea. In the UK, offshore wind projects require a thorough strategic environmental assessment, detailing all possible environmental impacts. </p>
<p><strong>2. Native Title holders lose out</strong> </p>
<p>Offshore energy project developers are prohibited from interfering with Native Title rights and interests. But the bill allows interference if it’s “necessary” for the for the “reasonable exercise” of project rights and obligations. </p>
<p>This raises a critical question — what is considered “necessary” and “reasonable”? </p>
<p>This vague wording could see projects go ahead <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-most-aboriginal-people-have-little-say-over-clean-energy-projects-planned-for-their-land-139119">when it conflicts with</a> Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities and their Native Title rights. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-aboriginal-people-have-little-say-over-energy-projects-on-their-land-139119">Why Aboriginal people have little say over energy projects on their land</a>
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<p><strong>3. Inadequate safety provisions</strong></p>
<p>Offshore wind energy development holds inherent risks, such as transporting and constructing wind turbine components in hazardous environments, which are often subject to extreme weather. Without a solid safety framework, construction may lead to injuries or deaths, similar to those that have <a href="https://www.abdn.ac.uk/law/documents/002.20%20-%20Wiffa%20and%20Hunter.pdf">occurred in the North Sea</a>. </p>
<p>Under the new legislation, the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority (NOPSEMA) would be appointed as the offshore wind regulator. NOPSEMA would oversee safety using the generic Work, Health and Safety Act 2011.</p>
<p>But the bill says parts of the Work, Health and Safety Act will <a href="https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/legislation/ems/r6774_ems_cc98aab2-2ad3-4a63-a200-e17e715e7da5/upload_pdf/JC003413.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf">need to be modified</a> so they’re “fit for purpose”. It would require extra provisions, exclusions and workarounds, making the assurance of structures difficult. </p>
<p>Compare this to offshore petroleum operations, which get a <a href="https://www.nopsema.gov.au/offshore-industry/safety">bespoke safety framework </a>, one NOPSEMA is already familiar with. Why isn’t one put in place for offshore wind farms?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419202/original/file-20210903-13-17h3fi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Construction of an offshore turbine" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419202/original/file-20210903-13-17h3fi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/419202/original/file-20210903-13-17h3fi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419202/original/file-20210903-13-17h3fi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419202/original/file-20210903-13-17h3fi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419202/original/file-20210903-13-17h3fi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419202/original/file-20210903-13-17h3fi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/419202/original/file-20210903-13-17h3fi9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Offshore wind construction workers may have to deal with extreme weather, putting them at risk.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<p><strong>4. It may leave the community behind</strong></p>
<p>In <a href="https://ens.dk/sites/ens.dk/files/Vindenergi/promotion_of_renewable_energy_act_-_extract.pdf">Denmark</a>, offshore wind turbines are located less than <a href="https://cms.law/en/int/expert-guides/cms-expert-guide-to-offshore-wind-in-northern-europe/denmark">16 kilometres</a> from the coastline. They’re obliged to offer at least 20% of ownership shares to local citizens.</p>
<p>But under Australia’s proposed bill, there are no explicit community benefit schemes. This is an important omission, because creating laws to increase community participation and engagement could reduce any risk of “not in my backyard” (Nimbyism) attitudes. It would also ensure hosting communities are actively involved early and frequently throughout the lifecycle of offshore wind projects.</p>
<p>In crafting best practice regulation coupled with community benefit schemes, the opportunities are limitless. A first step could be to create further public submission opportunities for communities to comment on the bill.</p>
<p>Offshore wind is our golden ticket to a reliable, affordable, and clean energy future. Investing in the offshore wind industry is a no-brainer for Australia, but it needs to be done right. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/a-100-renewables-target-might-not-mean-what-you-think-it-means-an-energy-expert-explains-160619">A '100% renewables' target might not mean what you think it means. An energy expert explains</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/167196/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Madeline Taylor is a Climate Councillor at the Climate Council and is affiliated with ACOLA.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tina Soliman Hunter is affiliated with ACOLA</span></em></p>From its inadequate safety provisions to vague wording around Native Title rights and interests, the bill leaves us wanting.Madeline Taylor, Senior Lecturer, Macquarie UniversityTina Soliman Hunter, Professor of Energy and Natural Resources Law, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1476122020-10-08T13:58:30Z2020-10-08T13:58:30ZWe want green energy jobs, say North Sea oil and gas workers – what they need to make the leap<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362470/original/file-20201008-16-1i0vr8a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C143%2C6399%2C4119&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/production-operator-communicate-between-central-control-796288390">Oil and Gas Photographer/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the first time in history, the price of US oil <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/20/over-a-barrel-how-oil-prices-dropped-below-zero#:%7E:text=US%20oil%20prices%20turned%20negative,the%20fastest%20plunge%20in%20history.">turned negative</a> in April 2020. While the oil and gas sector has faced downturns before, the collapse of demand during lockdowns in the pandemic may prove to be its biggest challenge yet. The ensuing glut of cheap oil has mired operations in the North Sea too, where as many as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-52446555">30,000 jobs</a> could be lost.</p>
<p>Signalling his ambition for a sea change in the region’s energy sector, Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently pledged to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54421489">power every home</a> in the UK with electricity generated by offshore wind farms by 2030. But if the North Sea skyline shifts from rigs to turbines, where does that leave oil and gas workers? What do they think about the emerging green economy and their place within it? </p>
<p>A recent <a href="https://platformlondon.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Oil-Gas-Workers-Report.pdf">survey</a> by Platform, Friends of the Earth Scotland and Greenpeace asked 1,383 people employed in North Sea oil and gas to give their thoughts on climate change, green energy and their industry and its future. This rare insight revealed key barriers preventing workers in high-carbon industries from switching – and how their transition could be supported to hasten a low-carbon economy. </p>
<h2>Talking to workers</h2>
<p>Throughout our research, we’ve found that workers in “dirty” industries tend to support environmentally friendly policies once they’re certain they can secure <a href="https://www.labor4sustainability.org/articles/union-members-dont-oppose-environmental-protections-theyre-actually-more-likely-to-support-them/">alternative employment</a>. The findings of the survey support this, with 82% saying they would consider moving to a job outside of the oil and gas industry, and over half expressing an interest in renewables and offshore wind. One worker said that “moving into renewables is something to feel good about.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-mines-can-be-closed-without-destroying-livelihoods-heres-how-124336">Coal mines can be closed without destroying livelihoods – here's how</a>
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<p>To encourage more workers into green energy, survey respondents said these new jobs shouldn’t recreate the same precarity that has led to low morale in the oil and gas <a href="https://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/burnout-and-low-morale-in-oilpatch-due-to-staff-cuts-with-more-to-come-report">industry</a>. Almost half of those interviewed said they had been made redundant or <a href="https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/work/coronavirus-being-furloughed-if-you-cant-work/">furloughed</a> since March 2020, and they ranked job insecurity as their biggest reason for wanting to leave oil and gas.</p>
<p>The construction and engineering skills that workers accrue in the oil and gas industry are useful elsewhere in the energy sector. But some survey respondents said they felt their knowledge and expertise was currently “untapped”. Many were enthusiastic about sharing their experiences publicly, which is notable in an industry with a history of <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-38968009#:%7E:text=Discrimination%2520against%2520former%2520oil%2520and,to%2520the%2520UK%2520employment%2520minister.">blacklisting</a>.</p>
<p>More than half of those interviewed were keen to retrain and work in offshore wind, and only one in five wanted a career outside the energy sector. But while training might have previously been funded by employers, the report outlined how the cost of obtaining necessary certification now often falls on workers across the offshore energy sector. One respondent said “programmes for people in the industry should be free or at least accessible. Education is expensive.”</p>
<h2>Just transitions</h2>
<p>We research how policy can reallocate labour from highly polluting industries, such as those in the fossil fuel sector, to climate-friendly ones which can help decarbonise society, like renewable energy. The effort to ensure that this process considers, consults, and involves workers in high-carbon industries, supporting them to retrain and make the switch to cleaner work, is known as a “just transition”.</p>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/coal-mines-can-be-closed-without-destroying-livelihoods-heres-how-124336">We’ve found</a> that there are four broad principles for guiding just transitions. Workers in high-carbon sectors like the fossil fuel industry should be consulted and able to inform plans for the future. Enough suitable substitute jobs in cleaner industries should be created, with opportunities for retraining available to all who want them, regardless of their means. And lastly, where retraining or re-employment isn’t possible, the government must support workers and their communities by investing in their future and, where necessary, providing compensation.</p>
<p>Worryingly, 91% of oil and gas workers surveyed in the recent report had never heard the term “just transition” before. But when asked what should be done to support their move away from a sector in which many feel unhappy, their responses more or less tracked the principles that researchers like ourselves had identified. This is encouraging, as it implies there is an emerging consensus among workers and industry experts about the kind of pathway that could wind down polluting industries fairly.</p>
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<img alt="Two engineers in harnesses attend to a wind turbine." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362445/original/file-20201008-24-n0uogu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/362445/original/file-20201008-24-n0uogu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362445/original/file-20201008-24-n0uogu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362445/original/file-20201008-24-n0uogu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362445/original/file-20201008-24-n0uogu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362445/original/file-20201008-24-n0uogu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/362445/original/file-20201008-24-n0uogu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Workers stressed the need for state support in retraining and finding new jobs in greener industries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/inspection-engineers-preparing-rappel-down-rotor-1244998828">Jacques Tarnero/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<p>The report suggested particular proposals that could assuage some of the worries workers raised, such as a jobs guarantee to create full employment for former oil and gas workers, and standardising the certification for offshore work across oil and wind to allow an easy transition between the two.</p>
<p>More than simply supporting workers, a just transition could unlock their potential to innovate in the green economy. With relevant education and retraining, workers could use the practical knowledge they already have to identify what’s needed to help renewable energy overtake oil and gas as the dominant means of fuelling society.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/147612/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kieran Harrahill receives funding from Teagasc for his PhD research in partnership with the BiOrbic Bioeconomy Research Centre in Dublin.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Owen Douglas works for the Eastern and Midland Regional Assembly in Ireland, of which a key function is the delivery of the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategy. This strategy supports a just transition to clean energy and a green economy.</span></em></p>A recent report found widespread support among North Sea oil and gas workers for a career in renewable energy.Kieran Harrahill, PhD Candidate in Bioeconomy, University College DublinOwen Douglas, Occasional Lecturer in Planning and Environmental Policy, University College DublinLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1455872020-10-05T11:38:18Z2020-10-05T11:38:18ZWhy we should leave old oil rigs in the sea – and why we don’t<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361595/original/file-20201005-16-18454wb.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/image-oil-platform-while-cloudless-day-124714042">Dabarti CGI/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Decommissioning the UK’s offshore oil and gas infrastructure will cost the taxpayer £24 billion, according to <a href="https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Oil-and-gas-in-the-UK-offshore-decommissioning.pdf">estimates from HMRC</a>. So why can’t we leave man-made structures in the sea and thereby save the cost of removal and recycling? That would be a big win for the public purse. However, to do that, we would have to test the pillars of sustainability: the economy, environment and society.</p>
<p>Decommissioning an oil rig is a big job. Offshore installations consist of the equipment for oil and gas processing and drilling (the topsides), and the supporting seabed-to-surface structure. This is most often a steel frame, piled to the seabed (the jacket). The largest steel jacket in UK waters is that of the Magnus oil platform, which weighs 30,000 tonnes – around the weight of 20,000 family cars.</p>
<p>Removal is typically undertaken in two stages. First, the topsides equipment is cleaned and broken into sections for lifting onto crane barges or, for heavier topsides structures, a double-hulled tanker. Once the topsides has been removed, the jacket is cut, lifted onto a barge and both topsides and jacket are taken onshore for dismantling and recycling.</p>
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<p>The oil and gas wells always need to be plugged to prevent the contents of the abandoned hydrocarbon reservoir leaking into the surrounding environment. But there is <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/fee.1827">ever-growing evidence</a> that leaving the jacket and topside structures in the sea are an environmental positive.</p>
<p>In the Gulf of Mexico, the US programme <a href="https://www.bsee.gov/what-we-do/environmental-focuses/rigs-to-reefs">Rigs to Reefs</a> has turned 532 oil and gas platforms into artificial reefs. After several years in the water, each structure <a href="https://www.outdooralabama.com/saltwater-fishing/artificial-reefs">becomes covered</a> by epifaunal organisms such as oysters, mussels, barnacles, tunicates, sponges and corals. These create an increasingly complex surface that provides thousands of nooks and crannies for organisms such as crabs, worms, sea urchins and blennies to use. These animals then provide food for larger fishes and the structure becomes a true reef ecosystem.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://scottishwildlifetrust.org.uk/our-work/our-projects/living-seas/decommissioning/">Scottish Wildlife Trust</a> is also proposing that architecture removal may not be the best environmental option. Similar to the Gulf of Mexico, structures off the coast of Scotland provide hard surfaces that are colonised by anemones, hydroids, bryozoans, sponges, mussels, barnacles, and soft and hard corals. They have also become breeding grounds and shelter for commercially important fish and they attract predatory marine mammals.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/retired-oil-rigs-off-the-california-coast-could-find-new-lives-as-artificial-reefs-111892">Retired oil rigs off the California coast could find new lives as artificial reefs</a>
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<p>Decommissioning, on the other hand, destroys thriving marine ecosystems that have built up over decades. It also results in increased harmful air emissions, including greenhouse gas emissions, from the marine traffic required to conduct the removal works.</p>
<p>Decommissioning offers few social or economic benefits either. It creates few jobs, particularly for the onshore dismantling and recycling parts of the process. For example, removing the Buchan floating production facility provided <a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/decom/140997/north-sea-decommissioning-contract-creates-35-jobs-on-shetland/">just 35 jobs</a>. And at the end of the process, nothing is left. Ultimately, decommissioning is a drain on taxpayer funds.</p>
<h2>It’s the law</h2>
<p>Despite the lack of benefits, the UK continues to remove offshore architecture at <a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/241343/uk-north-sea-to-dominate-global-decommissioning-spend-over-next-five-years/">the rate of</a> around 70,000 tonnes to 100,000 tonnes a year. The reason for this is that marine law says we have to.</p>
<p>The international OSPAR convention’s <a href="https://www.ospar.org/documents?v=6875">Decision on the Disposal of Disused Offshore Installations</a> prohibits signatory countries (including the UK) from leaving offshore architecture in the sea, either wholly or in part. It mandates that all topsides installations are returned to shore and that subsea structures weighing less than 10,000 tonnes be completely removed. Due to the difficulty associated with removing larger structures, some can have their bases left in place.</p>
<p>It is also interesting to note that OSPAR is at odds with the UK’s <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/oil-and-gas-offshore-environmental-legislation#conservation-of-offshore-marine-habitats-and-species-regulations-2017O">Conservation of Offshore Marine Habitats and Species Regulations 2017</a>. OSPAR says we should remove structures irrespective of harm to marine life, whereas the UK regulations are focused on preventing activities that could kill or injure protected marine species.</p>
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<img alt="Scuba diver swims between two columns covered in sea creatures." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361602/original/file-20201005-22-1dwc4ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/361602/original/file-20201005-22-1dwc4ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361602/original/file-20201005-22-1dwc4ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361602/original/file-20201005-22-1dwc4ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361602/original/file-20201005-22-1dwc4ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361602/original/file-20201005-22-1dwc4ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/361602/original/file-20201005-22-1dwc4ly.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rigs can become reefs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/diver-lisa-navigates-oil-rig-structure-1247103925">Kirk Wester/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A case in point is the cold water coral <em>Lophelia pertusa</em>. These corals have been <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X05004534">recorded at</a> depths of between 50m and 130m on oil and gas structures. Cold-water coral reefs support a high diversity and abundance of associated invertebrates and fishes. The fact that OSPAR would take no recognition of their presence is simply wrong. </p>
<p>Since the public purse has so much to gain from leaving man-made structures in the sea as a benefit to marine ecosystems, the UK government should base its case for removal on economic, societal and environmental evidence. If the evidence can’t support removal – which I don’t believe it can – then the UK should challenge the fitness of current international marine legislation.</p>
<p>Finally, a frequent counterargument is that if we left offshore architecture in place we would end up with a public furore similar to the one that forced Shell to abandon its plans to dispose of the <a href="https://www.shell.co.uk/sustainability/decommissioning/brent-spar-dossier.html">Brent Spar</a> tanker loading buoy at sea in the 1990s. But if we used the savings from leaving offshore installations in place to support climate management investment, I believe environmental groups and the broader public might see things very differently.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Baxter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Decommissioning offshore structures is expensive and environmentally damaging – so why is it illegal to leave them where they are?Tom Baxter, Honorary Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/947862018-04-11T13:43:59Z2018-04-11T13:43:59ZI asked UK government why it’s spending £25 billion dismantling oil platforms – here’s the reply<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214303/original/file-20180411-584-1sc143k.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Water waste of money. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:North_Sea_Oil_Rig_(7573694644).jpg#/media/File:North_Sea_Oil_Rig_(7573694644).jpg">Wikimedia</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As North Sea petroleum moves towards the end of its lifespan, the UK taxpayer is to spend <a href="https://www.woodmac.com/reports/upstream-oil-and-gas-us32-billion-of-decommissioning-worldwide-over-the-next-five-years-is-the-industry-ready-9599">some £25 billion</a> to pay nearly half the cost of removing the offshore infrastructure. </p>
<p>This might sound like the right thing to do, but as I have <a href="https://theconversation.com/north-sea-decommissioning-will-cost-taxpayers-billions-heres-a-better-idea-69509">argued before</a>, it is probably not the best use of public money. The environmental benefits of decommissioning are <a href="https://scottishwildlifetrust.org.uk/docs/002_293__decommissioningoffshoreinfrastructure_policy_1386585277.pdf">questionable</a>. If we instead spent the money on, say, building more renewable energy, it would create jobs for longer and you would generate carbon-free power for your trouble. Others might not share this view – my point is it’s a debate we’re not having. </p>
<p>I have repeatedly asked the relevant government agencies to outline the motivations that support the current plans. They have never given me straight answers. My latest move has been to submit a request for information to the government’s department for business, energy and industrial strategy.</p>
<h2>Environmental bluster</h2>
<p>In my request, I once again expressed my concerns about value for money. I said my previous requests had been met with a stock response that offshore operators have to decommission installations at the end of a field’s economic life, and that in accordance with UK and international obligations this has to be safe, efficient and cost-effective to the taxpayer while minimising the risk to the environment and other users of the sea. </p>
<p>This, I told them, says nothing about the reasons behind the policy – neither the primary environmental motivation nor anything to do with society or economics. I asked for the environmental basis underpinning the policy. </p>
<p>I received a reply from the director of decommissioning at the department. It says:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The UK’s international obligations on decommissioning are governed principally by the 1992 Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North East Atlantic (the <a href="https://www.ospar.org/convention/text">OSPAR convention</a>) and in particular <a href="https://rod.eionet.europa.eu/obligations/459">decision 98/3</a> on the disposal of disused offshore installations.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The UK is indeed one of 15 parties to the convention, all of them countries in western Europe. Paragraph 2 of decision 98/3 stipulates that disused offshore installations can’t be dumped or left “wholly or partly in place” at sea. </p>
<p>The competent authority can allow exceptions, but it’s quite narrow – covering certain concrete infrastructure; the base of large steel structures; and some other installations that are very damaged. It leaves little scope for what I am suggesting. </p>
<p>The response says that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We seek to achieve effective and balanced decommissioning solutions which are consistent with international obligations and have a proper regard for safety, the environment, other legitimate uses of the sea, economic and social considerations as well as technical feasibility …</p>
<p>[The decommissioning process] entails an assessment of the environmental impact [by the operator, and] … it is one of the factors that influences the final decision [by them on whether to go ahead] … Ultimately if leaving the infrastructure in place would not have a significant detrimental effect on the environment then an operator may make a case to decommission in-situ.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>None of this says anything about overriding environmental benefits in removing these structures. Decision 98/3 is silent, and none of the government reports I have read address them either. </p>
<p>As for the operator’s environmental impact assessment, it is not their job to consider the taxpayer’s options. It is for the government, and it’s not happening.</p>
<p>How does this therefore amount to the government achieving a balanced solution? Where is the evidence that the legislation is providing a positive outcome? If it can’t be provided then the legislation is not appropriate and should be challenged – however well intentioned it may be. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214275/original/file-20180411-560-v910g2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214275/original/file-20180411-560-v910g2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214275/original/file-20180411-560-v910g2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214275/original/file-20180411-560-v910g2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214275/original/file-20180411-560-v910g2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214275/original/file-20180411-560-v910g2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214275/original/file-20180411-560-v910g2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214275/original/file-20180411-560-v910g2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Paved with good intentions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/oil-platform-uk-422658097?src=CuaGny059GZtJWLn7_NWag-1-2">Mr. PK</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The response also informs me that a joint industry project called INSITE is aiming to “enhance scientific understanding of the effect of man-made structures on the North Sea and thus support decision-making [by operators]”. </p>
<p>I am familiar with INSITE and have met with the project manager and discussed the programme. INSITE is undertaking some first-class science but its very existence and government funding only serves to demonstrate the lack of evidence that supports removal. </p>
<h2>The money question</h2>
<p>The department’s response also addresses the cost to the taxpayer, which is being spent in the form of tax relief for operators who are decommissioning. It says: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>North Sea operators have paid over £330 billion of tax since the 1970s at tax rates significantly higher than onshore companies, therefore allowing tax relief on decommissioning ensures a fair tax system that gives companies good incentives to maximise economic recovery.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>What is that justifying or explaining? Because oil and gas companies have paid due taxes on eye-watering profits in the past, the government can use taxpayers’ money for future decommissioning costs? </p>
<p>The response refers to these as an “unavoidable cost for industry”. Well plugging and abandonment is unavoidable but asset removal? Witness the <a href="http://www.rig2reefexploration.org/read-me/">rigs to reefs programme</a> in the US. </p>
<p>The response says the government and industry are working on reducing decommissioning costs by 35%, but why spend the money in the first place? If a large proportion of costs can be removed, surely that would be a better incentive to maximise petroleum recovery?</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214277/original/file-20180411-560-5c8i2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214277/original/file-20180411-560-5c8i2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214277/original/file-20180411-560-5c8i2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214277/original/file-20180411-560-5c8i2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214277/original/file-20180411-560-5c8i2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214277/original/file-20180411-560-5c8i2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214277/original/file-20180411-560-5c8i2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214277/original/file-20180411-560-5c8i2s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Reef or grief?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/oil-platform-uk-422658097?src=CuaGny059GZtJWLn7_NWag-1-2">Richard Whitcombe</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The UK, it concludes, remains committed to OSPAR and decision 98/3 and “there are no proposals to change the decommissioning process in operation”. The taxpayer, in other words, will be running up this huge bill to follow legislation without anyone having to demonstrate the case for it. </p>
<p>It is time that decommissioning policy be hastily re-examined in the UK. The government needs to commission a full evidence-based report into the environmental, social and economic benefits, comparing them to other options such as building more green energy stations and even spending the money on things like health or education. </p>
<p>If I am proven right about which will come out on top, the UK should renegotiate terms with OSPAR. Blindly going ahead with this policy is wrong. It is time to think again.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94786/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Baxter does occasional oil and gas consultancy work for Genesis Oil and Gas Consultants. They would not stand to benefit in any way if the UK changed its policy on North Sea decommissioning.</span></em></p>It’s a policy to help the environment, so where’s the evidence to support it?Tom Baxter, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/883372017-12-01T16:31:44Z2017-12-01T16:31:44ZStoring carbon under the North Sea: are wrong sites being looked at?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197347/original/file-20171201-17360-1b14j75.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">shutterstock</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">belfastlough via Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>One effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change is to prevent carbon dioxide from reaching the atmosphere by capturing and storing it. There <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/651916/BEIS_The_Clean_Growth_online_12.10.17.pdf">are now</a> 21 large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) facilities either operating or being built around the world, including in the US, Australia, Canada and Saudi Arabia. </p>
<p>The UK looked like joining them until the government <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-38687835">cancelled</a> its £1 billion competition in 2015 which had intended to lead to deployment of the technology. In October, however, a new £100m commitment was announced, potentially benefiting CCS projects in <a href="https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/projects/caledonia-clean-energy-project">Grangemouth</a>, <a href="http://www.teessidecollective.co.uk">Teesside</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-41167176">Aberdeenshire</a>. </p>
<p>This includes a cost reduction drive aimed at having a fleet of CCS facilities by the 2030s. The UK government also recently published a new <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/modern-industrial-strategy-to-boost-business-support-for-scotland">industrial strategy</a> placing clean energy systems including carbon capture at its heart; and the Scottish government has continually promoted and supported feasibility studies. </p>
<p>The three current UK proposals all seek to store the carbon dioxide (CO₂) offshore, probably still the simplest option for the country. But it comes with a major presumption – that the geology works and the gas won’t escape. </p>
<h2>Performing seals</h2>
<p>The offshore options on the table are depleted petroleum fields and saline aquifers – massive porous sedimentary rock formations saturated with salt water. The petroleum fields are closed-off “traps” that sit within these aquifers. Potentially this makes traps more secure for storage, but aquifers have vastly more storage capacity and may well be required to store CO₂ in substantial quantities. </p>
<p>The Grangemouth and Aberdeenshire projects are both looking at depleted fields in the Moray Firth in the north of Scotland, while Teesside is looking at the Triassic Bunter Sandstone saline aquifer off east England in the southern North Sea. The two leading proposals in the UK government’s previous competition had similar plans – a <a href="https://sequestration.mit.edu/tools/projects/peterhead.html">Shell/SSE Aberdeenshire project</a> would have used the Moray Firth while <a href="https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/projects/white-rose-ccs-project">White Rose</a> in Yorkshire would have used Triassic Bunter. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196953/original/file-20171129-29134-1q36qd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196953/original/file-20171129-29134-1q36qd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/196953/original/file-20171129-29134-1q36qd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196953/original/file-20171129-29134-1q36qd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196953/original/file-20171129-29134-1q36qd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196953/original/file-20171129-29134-1q36qd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196953/original/file-20171129-29134-1q36qd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/196953/original/file-20171129-29134-1q36qd7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=549&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Electric dreams.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://ukccsrc.ac.uk/news-events/news/wales-and-ccs">Sitiardi21</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Oil and gas is trapped in a field or saline aquifer by <a href="http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Terms/s/seal.aspx">a robust seal</a> – a layer of fairly impermeable rock surrounding the reservoir. To store CO₂ securely, it must not be able to leak or react with the seal either now or in future – or escape up faults that break the seal or leak along borehole walls. </p>
<p>It is essential to completely understand the physical properties and general integrity of seals in relation to CO₂. After all, it is a more mobile and smaller molecule (0.28nm) than gases more commonly trapped in petroleum reservoirs such as methane (0.38nm) or longer chained hydrocarbons. </p>
<p>Some gas accumulations do contain CO₂, which points to where storage will be viable. The Fizzy and Oak discoveries in the southern North Sea are examples, as are the North Morecambe and Rhyl gas fields in the East Irish Sea Basin off north-west England. </p>
<p>On the other hand, there was no CO₂ in the Goldeneye field in the Moray Firth that Shell/SSE considered. There are no indications that the adjacent Atlantic field proposed for the Grangemouth and Aberdeenshire projects contains CO₂ either. If not, was CO₂ once housed there and leaked? Or if it was never there, can we be confident CO₂ injection is safe?</p>
<p>Another potential issue is chemical reaction. Seals are unlikely to react with hydrocarbons because they are inert. But carbon dioxide reacts with water to produce carbonic acid, which may severely corrode the top seal and allow the gas an unwelcome return to the atmosphere. It all depends on what the seal is made of. The seal for Goldeneye and Atlantic, the Rodby Formation, is carbonate-rich so has reactive potential. </p>
<h2>Aquifer anxieties</h2>
<p>Aquifers are not traps but large migration pathways for oil and gas. Their vast storage potential has led some <a href="http://www.sccs.org.uk/images/expertise/reports/progressing-scotlands-co2/ProgressingScotlandCO2Opps.pdf">to champion</a> them as more attractive sites for carbon storage. The aquifer in which the Goldeneye and Atlantic fields sits is known as the Lower Cretaceous Captain Sandstone. Some <a href="https://www.onepetro.org/conference-paper/SPE-154539-MS">suggest</a> it could store 1,700m tonnes of CO₂ – <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/uk-carbon-emissions-fall-1894-first-petrol-powered-car-patent-greenhouse-gases-environment-climate-a7614066.html">around</a> five years of UK emissions. Goldeneye, in contrast, <a href="https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2425884/goldeneye-north-sea-reservoir-suitable-for-ccs-project-says-independent-review">only had an estimated</a> capacity of about 20m tonnes.</p>
<p>Yet <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1190/INT-2017-0009.1">new mapping suggests</a> we should be cautious about the Captain Sandstone. The Moray Firth is riddled with faults reactivated by <a href="https://theconversation.com/there-may-be-a-huge-flaw-in-uk-fracking-hopes-the-geology-80591">the uplift and easterly tilt</a> that took place in Britain some 55m years ago. </p>
<p>These are evident in the seismic image of the Moray Firth below. The top of the picture shows the boreholes in the various oil drilling concessions. The coloured bands underneath are different rock formations – the yellow band with red lines on either side is the Captain Sandstone. The black lines cutting through the Captain Sandstone are fault lines that potentially allow CO₂ a route out. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197298/original/file-20171201-10155-17jlqfo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197298/original/file-20171201-10155-17jlqfo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197298/original/file-20171201-10155-17jlqfo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197298/original/file-20171201-10155-17jlqfo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197298/original/file-20171201-10155-17jlqfo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=353&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197298/original/file-20171201-10155-17jlqfo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197298/original/file-20171201-10155-17jlqfo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197298/original/file-20171201-10155-17jlqfo.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=444&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Underhill/Heriot Watt University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The next image shows the same area but east-west instead of north-south and shows that the Captain Sandstone rises up to the seabed. This raises more concerns about leakage. And like the depleted fields within it, the carbonate-rich formation sealing the entire aquifer is susceptible to corrosion from carbonic acid. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197301/original/file-20171201-10155-pldwrk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197301/original/file-20171201-10155-pldwrk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197301/original/file-20171201-10155-pldwrk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197301/original/file-20171201-10155-pldwrk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197301/original/file-20171201-10155-pldwrk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197301/original/file-20171201-10155-pldwrk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197301/original/file-20171201-10155-pldwrk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197301/original/file-20171201-10155-pldwrk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">John Underhill/Heriot Watt University</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://www.agr.com/Papers/Planning%20for%20Commercial%20Scale%20CO2%20Storage%20in%20North%20Sea%20Saline%20Aquifer.pdf">Enthusiasts</a> for the Triassic Bunter Sandstone aquifer in the southern North Sea face the same issue as it is affected by the same tilt as the Captain Sandstone – causing it to rise to the sea floor, a few kilometres off east England. </p>
<p>Plans to store CO₂ in either aquifer are therefore premature. It is better to look to use large traps containing CO₂ like Rhyl and North Morecambe in the East Irish Sea, where an active CO₂ gas processing plant already exists at Barrow. </p>
<p>When the country reaches the stage of a demonstrator project, it really needs to succeed. An early leakage could destroy national confidence in CCS. This means obtaining the best possible geological understanding of the sites and prioritising those fields that contain CO₂ already. </p>
<p>In some cases, these are places where drilling has found CO₂ ruling out commercial extraction of oil or gas. As such, the potential exists to turn an exploration failure into a storage opportunity and extend the life of the North Sea.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Richard Underhill's research has been undertaken in collaboration with Gustavo Rojas, who is in receipt of a PhD studentship investigating the subsurface geology of the Moray Firth from the Scottish Overseas Research Scholarship Awards Scheme (SORSAS).
</span></em></p>It may be just as well the UK government scrapped its previous carbon capture competition.John Richard Underhill, Chief Scientist & Professor of Exploration Geoscience, Heriot-Watt UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/829292017-08-23T14:50:28Z2017-08-23T14:50:28ZIt’s time to accept carbon capture has failed – here’s what we should do instead<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183152/original/file-20170823-20456-1dix6lw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Drax and Eggborough power stations in England.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/145489125@N03/31886390394/in/photolist-QzG5XC-UtHunS-WBmux4-Wmq9tf-UFSQxm-Vk7qEq-Vdyb9J-UFVqYS-V2FhHd-V2FNxJ-UG5biS-VdyTb3-Vh9Wk2-V2EX2Q-6xg3v6-VnNv5K-Vdw2YE-9rSGPs-Vk7q2G-V2Fo9d-VdzpYA-at4Wdg-bqhVSm-U3up2R-TZEp6Y-bqhVSs-TZE6qs-6RGMBa-Vdwogo-dQaanu-V2PHY7-W25a3d-VhiYFX-ezM2KF-Wmq8Pj-f8jYo-UFSTRf-V2PNtQ-VdzKby-dEPLp-n9gRcq-djwZcs-VnNong-8HDwEU-pW6xA9-W256ew-8GkUCa-KjSWz-dCEjd9-Vh9xhZ">Pete Richman</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For years, optimists have talked up carbon capture and storage (CCS) as an essential part of taking emissions out of electricity generation. Yes, build wind and solar farms, they have said, but they can’t be relied on to produce enough power all the time. So we’ll still need our fleet of fossil-fuel-burning power stations; we just need to stop them pumping carbon dioxide (CO₂) into the atmosphere. </p>
<p>Most of their emphasis has been on post-combustion capture. This involves removing CO₂ from power station flue gases by absorbing them into an aqueous solution containing chemicals known as amines. </p>
<p>You then extract the CO₂, compress it into a liquid and pump it into a storage facility – the vision in the UK being to use depleted offshore oil and gas fields. One of the big attractions with such a system is it could be retrofitted to existing power stations. </p>
<h2>The big let-down</h2>
<p>But <a href="http://www.ccsassociation.org/docs/2007/CCSA%20Press%20Release%20on%20BERR%20Competition%20Announcement%20101007.pdf">ten years after</a> the UK government first announced a £1 billion competition to design CCS, we’re not much further forward. The reason is summed up by the geologist Lord Oxburgh in his contribution to the government-commissioned report on CCS published last year:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is no serious commercial incentive and it will stay that way unless the state demonstrates there is a business there. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The problem is that the process is costly and energy intensive. For a gas-fired power station, you <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srccs/srccs_wholereport.pdf">typically have</a> to burn 16% more gas to provide the capture power. Not only this, you end up with a 16% increase in emissions of other <a href="https://www.sepa.org.uk/media/120465/mtc_chem_of_air_pollution.pdf">serious air pollutants</a> like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. Concerns have also been <a href="https://www.sepa.org.uk/media/155585/review-of-amine-emissions-from-carbon-capture-systems.pdf">expressed about</a> the potential health effects of the amine solvent used in the carbon capture. </p>
<p>You then have to contend with the extra emissions from processing and transporting 16% more gas. And all this before you factor in the pipeline costs of the CO₂ storage and the uncertainties around whether it might escape once you’ve got it in the ground. Around the world, the only places CCS looks viable are where there are heavy state subsidies or substantial additional revenue streams, such as from enhanced oil recovery from oilfields where the CO₂ is being pumped in. </p>
<p>Well, say the carbon capture advocates, maybe another technology is the answer. They point to oxy-combustion, a system which is <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/goodbye-smokestacks-startup-invents-zero-emission-fossil-fuel-power">close to</a> reaching fruition at a plant in Texas. </p>
<p>First <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2017/02/21/revolutionary-power-plant-captures-all-its-carbon-emissions-at-no-extra-cost/#50c9a4402db0">proposed</a> many years ago by British engineer Rodney Allam, this involves separating oxygen from air, burning the oxygen with the fossil fuel, and using the combustion products – water and CO₂ – to drive a high-pressure turbine and produce electricity. The hot CO₂ is pressurised and recycled back into the burners, which improves thermal efficiency. It has the additional advantage that CO₂ is also available at pressures suitable for pipeline transportation. </p>
<p>It is, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/08/02/british-inventor-close-holy-grail-carbon-capture-zero-cost/">according to</a> some enthusiasts, the “holy grail” of CCS. Admittedly it looks promising, but I wouldn’t go that far. It’s not suitable for retrofitting existing power stations. With many existing stations viable for several decades, this will do little for immediate emissions. And you are still obtaining and moving fossil fuels in large quantities, with the resultant emissions along the way. Finally, my experience would indicate that there is always very significant cost growth with new technology scaled up to industry. </p>
<h2>Number crunching</h2>
<p>One UK post-combustion CCS project that was <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-38687835">cancelled earlier</a> this year was the joint-venture between SSE and Shell at the Peterhead gas-fired ation in northeast Scotland. It aimed to capture 10m tonnes of CO₂ over a 10-year period and store it 2km under the North Sea. </p>
<p>Let’s put this saving into context. The diagram below summarises the amount of power produced and used in the UK. It shows that the country uses 108 terawatt hours (TWhrs) of domestic electricity per annum. </p>
<p><strong>UK electricity generation/consumption</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183144/original/file-20170823-13271-1ab6oas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183144/original/file-20170823-13271-1ab6oas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183144/original/file-20170823-13271-1ab6oas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183144/original/file-20170823-13271-1ab6oas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183144/original/file-20170823-13271-1ab6oas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183144/original/file-20170823-13271-1ab6oas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183144/original/file-20170823-13271-1ab6oas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183144/original/file-20170823-13271-1ab6oas.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=536&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">All numbers are in terawatt hours (TWhrs).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/633779/Chapter_5.pdf">DECC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of this domestic usage, <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261914011623">16% goes to</a> cooking. Boiling kettles makes up 34% – that’s 5.9TWhrs per annum, the equivalent of a 670MW power station. Domestic kettle use is particularly inefficient as we regularly overfill our kettles. We could save at least half the energy if we boiled only what we need to make tea and coffee. </p>
<p>That would negate the need for 335MW of power. Now compare that to what CCS would have saved from Peterhead – 85% of a 400MW gas turbine, or 340MW. Simply by not overfilling our kettles, we could remove about the same amount of CO₂. Unlike CCS, let alone oxy-combustion, we could do this immediately, for free, and cut our electricity bills and remove various air pollutants at the same time. </p>
<p>Of course, being kettle smart will only deliver a fraction of the UK’s required carbon reduction goals. It’s only about 3TWhrs out of the approximately 170TWhrs produced by gas-fired power in the UK each year. But it hopefully illustrates why energy efficiency is a much smarter way of reducing carbon and other harmful air emissions than CCS. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183154/original/file-20170823-13303-mpsn59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183154/original/file-20170823-13303-mpsn59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183154/original/file-20170823-13303-mpsn59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183154/original/file-20170823-13303-mpsn59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183154/original/file-20170823-13303-mpsn59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=420&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183154/original/file-20170823-13303-mpsn59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183154/original/file-20170823-13303-mpsn59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/183154/original/file-20170823-13303-mpsn59.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=528&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Tower of power.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/metal-kettle-closeup-kitchen-251796247?src=BvTXAoEjjxSm4xzUEXv1ig-1-12">gmstockstudio</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>If we took the same approach to lighting, computer monitors, TVs on stand-by, running water and everything else, it becomes a very different proposition. If we could achieve the aim of a carbon-neutral house, <a href="http://www.zerocarbonhub.org/sites/default/files/resources/reports/Zero_Carbon_Strategies_for_Tomorrows_New_Homes.pdf">we could</a> shut down half the UK’s existing gas-fired power stations. And if industry and other non-domestic consumers made energy savings of the order of 20%, that would bring down the gas-fired power requirement by a corresponding percentage. </p>
<p>Is 20% realistic? As a chemical engineer with a 40-year industrial career, I am confident it is. Key areas to be considered would be pump and compressor efficiency, energy use in separation processes, combined heat and power, furnace fuel management, green concrete and energy integration.</p>
<p>Together with the government giving greater priority to renewable energy like offshore wind and solar, you have a viable plan for delivering the UK’s carbon goals. CCS may still have its place, but as a means of removing carbon emissions from burning things like wood and rubbish as opposed to fossil fuels. Suffice to say it looks more promising on that front. </p>
<p>But in short, it is time for governments to stop wasting time and money on technologies like CCS that aren’t working. They need to finally get serious about leading a major drive for energy efficiency instead.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82929/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Baxter does occasional oil and gas consultancy work for Genesis Oil and Gas Consultants, but the ideas in this piece are entirely his own. </span></em></p>Why go to all that bother when you can just half-fill the kettle?Tom Baxter, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/708632017-01-04T17:00:20Z2017-01-04T17:00:20ZHow to burn more oil and gas but slash emissions? Offshore power stations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151722/original/image-20170104-18653-1vnt59r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/pic-267980426/stock-photo-oil-rig-platform.html?src=0DfMjpPU86EkftFTMCB5Bg-1-73">Lucasz Z</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>While the energy in fossil fuels is valuable for society, burning them has well documented environmental consequences – global warming, smog and the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/ocr_gateway_pre_2011/rocks_metals/6_clean_air3.shtml">effects</a> of nitrous and sulphur oxides. Many think the time has come to stop burning them almost entirely. This led to the Guardian launching a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2015/mar/16/keep-it-in-the-ground-guardian-climate-change-campaign">campaign</a> a couple of years ago to “keep it in the ground”, which attracted much support. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php">Paris Agreement</a> is a shift in this direction with its commitment to keep the global temperature rise this century to 2°C. But within days of it coming into force last November, Donald Trump was elected American president. He <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/11/keep-it-in-the-ground-what-president-trump-means-for-climate-change">wants</a> the US to withdraw from the agreement and has <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/10/donald-trump-name-rex-tillerson-us-secretary-state-nbc-news/">appointed</a> a fossil fuels champion, Rex Tillerson, as secretary of state. </p>
<p>There may however be a way to reconcile these two sides that is not being discussed. Instead of burning gas and coal in power stations and burning petrol and diesel in cars, we could extract their energy by burning them at source – in offshore power stations.</p>
<h2>Mission: carbon capture</h2>
<p>In parallel with developing green energy technologies like wind and solar, much attention in recent years has been devoted to cleaning up traditional fossil-fuel power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). </p>
<p>Most of the emphasis has been on <a href="http://www.ccsassociation.org/what-is-ccs/capture/post-combustion-capture/">post-combustion capture</a>, which involves removing carbon dioxide from the power station flue gases then compressing it into a liquid. This is then pumped to a storage facility, commonly proposed in the UK to be depleted oil and gas fields offshore. </p>
<p>So far CCS in the UK <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-34943034">is still</a> not much further forward after more than ten years of endeavour. It doesn’t help that the technology has several major difficulties. The process of removing, treating and pumping carbon dioxide is costly and energy intensive, which is somewhat self-defeating. And moving the hydrocarbons hundreds of kilometres from their source to treat and burn them only to pump the carbon dioxide all the way back again is very inefficient. </p>
<p>So why not move the power station to the oil and gas field instead? You would burn the hydrocarbons in their containing rock by feeding them oxygen or air, while pumping pressurised water from a surface facility – per the diagram below. The heat from burning the hydrocarbons would convert the water into steam, which would be piped up to the surface to power a turbine to produce electricity that could be transmitted to shore using power cables. </p>
<p><strong>In-situ combustion</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151713/original/image-20170104-18647-get2iz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151713/original/image-20170104-18647-get2iz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151713/original/image-20170104-18647-get2iz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151713/original/image-20170104-18647-get2iz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151713/original/image-20170104-18647-get2iz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=366&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151713/original/image-20170104-18647-get2iz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151713/original/image-20170104-18647-get2iz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151713/original/image-20170104-18647-get2iz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=460&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>No hydrocarbons would be taken to the surface in this process, and the carbon dioxide and other environmentally unfriendly combustion products would remain locked within the subsurface reservoir. And in case you are wondering if the process is unsafe, it isn’t. Isolate the oxygen supply and you can quickly stop combustion. There’s also no question of explosions because these need a free path. Hydrocarbons are stored in a rock matrix, so no such paths are available. </p>
<p>Not only would this be a new form of green power for homes and businesses, with a concerted shift to electric cars it could displace petrol and diesel. It could also potentially be applied to onshore shale oil and gas reserves. In short, this is about having our cake and eating it. </p>
<h2>Practicalities</h2>
<p>In-situ combustion has already been used for many years in <a href="http://www.terrapinn.com/2012/eor-and-heavy-oil-world-mena/Data/statusofiscprojects.pdf">places such as</a> the US and Romania to extract heavy oil. This involves injecting air or oxygen to burn the oil and gas within the reservoir, but instead of producing steam like in my proposal, the heat thins the heavy oil and turns lighter components to vapour, enhancing the flow to the surface. </p>
<p>That said, subsurface steam generation and surface power production present numerous uncertainties. We’d need significant research and development to prove the concept. Areas to be addressed include: </p>
<ol>
<li><p><strong>Modelling the combustion process</strong>: developing a model of the heat generation and the way the thermal front would move through different kinds of rock is likely to be extremely complex. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Efficiency of heat transfer</strong>: how much of the heat could be captured to produce steam?</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Steam well design</strong>: this would require a new well completion arrangement with materials that could handle very high temperatures. </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Surface facility and transmission requirements</strong>: what does the surface facility look like – steam turbines, high-voltage DC generation? What other support systems are required? What are the requirements for moving the power onshore? </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Effect of combustion products over time</strong>: would the build-up of carbon dioxide and other gases undermine the process? Where would these products migrate to and what would happen to them? </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Reservoir seal integrity</strong>: would the seal that prevents hydrocarbons and combustion products escaping be maintained, or would the process compromise its integrity?</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Effect on hydrocarbon recovery</strong>: current techniques for extracting oil from the North Sea <a href="http://www.offshore-technology.com/features/featurethe-biggest-oil-fields-in-the-north-sea-4836046/">can remove</a> a maximum of about two thirds of what is in a reservoir. Would burning the materials in-situ enable you to access more of the energy over the conventional process? </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Integration with other infrastructure</strong>: what potential is there for linking this kind of facility with other oil and gas fields and also offshore wind farms?</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Commerciality</strong>: you would of course need to calculate full capital and operating costs for the process, together with the associated revenue streams. Conventional accounting might prejudice analysis of such a scheme, however, unless there is a value ascribed to the benefit of emissions reduction using <a href="http://study.com/academy/lesson/full-cost-accounting-definition-example.html">full-cost accounting</a> techniques, the overall benefits for society will be missed.</p></li>
</ol>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151752/original/image-20170104-18653-k64byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151752/original/image-20170104-18653-k64byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/151752/original/image-20170104-18653-k64byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151752/original/image-20170104-18653-k64byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151752/original/image-20170104-18653-k64byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=698&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151752/original/image-20170104-18653-k64byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=877&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151752/original/image-20170104-18653-k64byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=877&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/151752/original/image-20170104-18653-k64byu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=877&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Barrier Britain.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/pic-345034715/stock-vector-illustration-of-a-vector-oil-drop-icon-with-a-map-of-the-uk.html?src=U0GDMIe3CVCpLNMvsyGgrw-1-58">blablo 101</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Developing this kind of scheme would not come cheap. In the UK it would require such a level of investment, integration and commitment across the competing energy companies that the current fully private set-up would be a barrier. </p>
<p>The best route would be to set up a state energy company – accepting that nationalising the remaining resource in the UK continental shelf was necessary to maximise what was left. This sort of thinking is necessary if we are to achieve our climate change goals. Offshore power stations could be exactly what we are looking for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70863/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Baxter does occasional oil and gas consultancy work for Genesis Oil and Gas Consultants. It would not stand to benefit from developing the kind of project envisaged in this article.
</span></em></p>Carbon capture is fundamentally flawed. Here’s plan B.Tom Baxter, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/695092016-11-29T10:54:41Z2016-11-29T10:54:41ZNorth Sea decommissioning will cost taxpayers billions – here’s a better idea<p>Over the next couple of decades, the UK is set to spend billions dismantling and removing the infrastructure used to extract North Sea petroleum. Most people think oil and gas companies will pay for it, but actually the taxpayer will fund a large proportion. </p>
<p>This state support will work through a <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/Energy-and-Resources/dttl-er-UK-oilandgas-guide.pdf">system of tax breaks</a> that will cover either 50% or 75% of decommissioning costs depending on the field. With the total cost of dismantling the UK North Sea <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0045/00455337.pdf">estimated</a> at about £40 billion, the taxpayer will hand over a huge sum of money – about £1,000 per head. And should decommissioning costs rise, as <a href="http://decomnorthsea.com/news/the-real-costs-of-decommissioning">many suspect</a> they will, the risk to the taxpayer is obvious. </p>
<p>Decommissioning has started already, costing £800m in 2014 <a href="http://oilandgasuk.co.uk/product/oil-gas-uk-decommissioning-insight-2014/">for instance</a>. But before the UK spends the majority of the fortune required, I believe the government should stop this process in its tracks. Instead, it should invest the money into something more beneficial to the future – renewable energy. </p>
<h2>How decommissioning works</h2>
<p>The process for decommissioning a field after petroleum extraction has become uneconomic is regulated by the UK government. First, the licence holder would typically seal all wells to prevent the oil reservoir from leaking into the surrounding environment. This is a complex process that requires the setting of cement plugs. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147751/original/image-20161128-22742-1nkuwfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147751/original/image-20161128-22742-1nkuwfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147751/original/image-20161128-22742-1nkuwfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147751/original/image-20161128-22742-1nkuwfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147751/original/image-20161128-22742-1nkuwfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147751/original/image-20161128-22742-1nkuwfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147751/original/image-20161128-22742-1nkuwfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147751/original/image-20161128-22742-1nkuwfa.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=801&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">No jacket required.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Tom Baxter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>At the same time, the licence holder has to prepare the offshore facility for removal in two stages. It needs to first remove the topside, which consists of the equipment for oil and gas processing and drilling, then clean and section the equipment so that it can be lifted on to huge crane barges. </p>
<p>Then the licence holder needs to deal with the supporting structure, which is known as the jacket. This often consists of a huge steel frame attached to the seabed with steel piles. It has to be cut and then lifted onto a barge, as per the picture above, so that the entire operation can be taken onshore for dismantling and recycling. The onshore activities are less than 5% of the overall cost. Well plugging is about 50% of the overall cost.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147748/original/image-20161128-22729-1u5j7zp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147748/original/image-20161128-22729-1u5j7zp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/147748/original/image-20161128-22729-1u5j7zp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147748/original/image-20161128-22729-1u5j7zp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147748/original/image-20161128-22729-1u5j7zp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=413&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147748/original/image-20161128-22729-1u5j7zp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147748/original/image-20161128-22729-1u5j7zp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/147748/original/image-20161128-22729-1u5j7zp.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=519&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=oil+rig+substructure&client=safari&channel=mac_bm&biw=1440&bih=756&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiN2JCHtcvQAhWKLMAKHcSiCoUQ_AUIBigB#channel=mac_bm&tbm=isch&q=offshore+oil+rig+substructure&imgrc=I7gofdWT1MwLmM%3A">Visakhapatnam</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Why are we doing this? <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-it-really-best-for-the-environment-to-remove-all-traces-of-oil-and-gas-production-in-the-north-sea-63842">Supposedly</a> because of the environmental benefits of returning to a clean seabed. No one disputes that plugging the wells is necessary, but environmental scientists are actually not sure about the benefits of removing the topside and jackets. Some <a href="http://scottishwildlifetrust.org.uk/docs/002_293__decommissioningoffshoreinfrastructure_policy_1386585277.pdf">suggest</a> that removal activities will cause more damage than good. This indicates to me that at the very least, the environmental case for decommissioning is not compelling. </p>
<p>If so, the taxpayer may well be providing a huge amount of money for little or no environmental benefit. It will also not create any follow-on employment or commercial activity once the decommissioning work is complete. Any money spent is dead – it generates nothing else for the nation in the longer term. </p>
<h2>The sustainability case</h2>
<p>From an industry viewpoint, the government’s policies for supporting decommissioning and removing infrastructure are good news. But if we look at this from the standpoint of the informed taxpayer, it is hard to see the current plans as a good deal – however well intentioned the government’s efforts are to ease industry’s transition. </p>
<p>This is why I would redirect the substantial capital spend required into renewable energy, be it wind or tidal or solar or whatever. The benefits for society, the environment and the economy will be substantially greater than those disputed benefits from a clean seabed. </p>
<p>We would have to demonstrate this with a comparative sustainability assessment of these two possible ways forward. This would have to define and compare the benefits in terms of people, profit and planet, taking into account the cost of decommissioning to the operator and taxpayer; the jobs and other socioeconomic impacts like fishing and marine transport; and the environmental footprint in terms of things like habitats, biodiversity and the impact of decommissioning. </p>
<p>This would produce clear differences. The renewables investment would generate substantially more sustainable jobs in areas like design, construction and operations and maintenance over the typical 25-year lifespan of a facility. Instead of just absorbing the tax-break funding, the renewable energy schemes would be generating profit and paying back to the Treasury the associated taxes during their operating lives. </p>
<p>The power generated by these schemes would of course be much more useful to society than the disputed benefits of a clean seabed, while there would be a big corresponding cut in carbon emissions. Given that the case for a change of policy looks so compelling, it is surprising that such a comparison never appears to have been undertaken. </p>
<p>If the oil and gas companies were paying the full costs of decommissioning, I would reach a different conclusion. On balance, those disputed seabed benefits would look worth having if taxpayer value was not in the equation. </p>
<p>But given the current arrangement, it seems wiser to let the licence holders benefit from not having to pay their share of decommissioning as a consequence of the greater good of benefiting the taxpayer. Though many service companies in the industry stand to win lucrative contracts from decommissioning and would lose out if it didn’t go ahead, this would also free up the resources of production companies for exploring and operating other fields. </p>
<p>If you are wondering whether the UK should alternatively scrap decommissioning and pocket the difference, it’s probably not an option. Many will recall the public and NGO <a href="http://www.open.edu/openlearn/science-maths-technology/computing-and-ict/systems-computer/systems-practice-managing-sustainability/content-section-1.5">outrage</a> in the 1990s when Shell planned to abandon its Brent Spar platform. </p>
<p>You would defuse this kind of opposition by offering something better instead – the renewables option. Assuming the sustainability assessment stacked up, this would be a bold and courageous move by the government. It would do far more good for the UK than the £40 billion-plus outlay that is now around the corner.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/69509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Baxter does occasional oil and gas consultancy work for Genesis Oil and Gas Consultants. They would not stand to benefit in any way if the UK changed its policy on North Sea decommissioning. </span></em></p>The case for dismantling and recycling oil rigs is far from clear cut.Tom Baxter, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/638422016-08-30T09:02:53Z2016-08-30T09:02:53ZIs it really best for the environment to remove all traces of oil and gas production in the North Sea?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/134986/original/image-20160822-18718-x4a0by.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Unnatural world? We need to look beneath the surface.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/dl2_lim.mhtml?src=XMwF8fL5YBNGjY9G-vx2iw-1-10&id=301964&size=huge_jpg">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>In Europe, the majority of oil and gas production (OGP) comes from mature offshore facilities that are approaching the end of their <a href="https://www.spe.org/ogf/print/subscribers/2016/04/05_GlobalMarket_April16.pdf">lifespan</a>. The current low oil price is prompting decisions about the decommissioning of this ageing infrastructure, particularly in the North Sea. </p>
<p>Many producing regions, such as Europe, have regulatory frameworks requiring – with relatively limited exceptions – the entire infrastructure to be removed once production ceases. These regulations, for example the <a href="http://www.ospar.org">Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR)</a>, were put in place to ensure that the ecosystems where OGP takes place would be restored to their pristine state once production stopped. </p>
<p>But what are the consequences of this? And will they benefit the natural world? Ecosystems are complex and adaptive – that is, they are systems composed of many interacting species. Crucially, these interactions can change over time depending on the internal and external forces being applied to the system. The very nature of ecosystems means that we cannot think about them as we would an engineered system. </p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534713001419">wealth of</a> <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v413/n6856/abs/413591a0.html">studies</a> have shown over the past two decades that ecosystem restoration is complex and that removing things like the infrastructure that supports the North Sea oil and gas industry does not necessarily result in a return to the ecosystem’s original state. The introduction of the OGP infrastructure has changed the North Sea. Structures such as platforms, thousands of kilometres of pipelines and other sub-sea structures have been in place for decades – and have been used as a medium for new ecosystems to establish themselves. </p>
<p>And so our current understanding of ecosystem dynamics raises some important questions. What is the North Sea’s pristine condition? How do we get it back to that state? And would that really be the best thing to do?</p>
<h2>Humans: part of nature or a species apart?</h2>
<p>Ecosystems can exist in different states depending on how the species within them interact. The transition, or shift, between states can depend on external factors, such as perturbations or the introduction of novel habitats. <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534711002060">Overfishing</a> is the best known example of how a marine ecosystem state shift can occur. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135181/original/image-20160823-30249-c19yfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135181/original/image-20160823-30249-c19yfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135181/original/image-20160823-30249-c19yfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135181/original/image-20160823-30249-c19yfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135181/original/image-20160823-30249-c19yfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135181/original/image-20160823-30249-c19yfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135181/original/image-20160823-30249-c19yfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">What would a ‘pristine’ North Sea look like?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/dl2_lim.mhtml?src=2N0ajnOfF18qPSyPMdxSpg-1-95&id=30460015&size=medium_jpg">Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>One textbook example is the shift between <a href="http://www.int-res.com/articles/feature/m495p001.pdf">kelp forests</a> and <a href="http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/370/1659/20130269">sea urchin barrens</a>. The over exploitation of sea otters for their fur on the US Pacific coast led to a boom in the populations of sea urchins – which are prey for otters and which overgrazed the kelp forests and completely transformed the coastal ecosystem.</p>
<p>While this particular shift led to a less productive and therefore less desirable ecosystem, state shifts do not necessarily change ecosystems for the worse.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X08002282">pre-OGP North Sea</a> was blighted by over-fishing and was still recovering from being a naval theatre of war. Several fish stocks were collapsed with unknown consequences for the ecosystem. Is this really the ecosystem we should aim to recover? </p>
<p>And if we go further back, humans have been using the North Sea for millennia. If we take the view that humans are a species apart from nature, we need to discover what would constitute a “<a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/293/5530/629.full">pristine</a>” North Sea state – that is to say, a North Sea unaffected by any human activity and influence. And how would we restore the sea to this state without considering the needs, and impacts, of other users such as shipping and fishing – or indeed the species thriving there now? </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135178/original/image-20160823-30231-uwqr7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135178/original/image-20160823-30231-uwqr7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135178/original/image-20160823-30231-uwqr7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=806&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135178/original/image-20160823-30231-uwqr7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=806&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135178/original/image-20160823-30231-uwqr7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=806&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135178/original/image-20160823-30231-uwqr7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1013&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135178/original/image-20160823-30231-uwqr7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1013&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/135178/original/image-20160823-30231-uwqr7x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1013&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">North Sea oil and gas fields.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/22/North_Sea_OilandGas_Fields.jpg">By Gautier, D.L. (US Dept. of Interior)</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>Alternatively, we could take the view that humans and their influences – such as OGP infrastructure – are an integral part of nature. This enables us to take into account the possible benefits of human activity. We should consider, for example, the role played by <a href="http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v542/p167-186/">OGP infrastructure</a> in the over-fishing restoration efforts in the North Sea over the past 30 years – and, importantly, what will happen if we remove all of the structures. We also need to look at how these OGP structures have provided new habitats.</p>
<p>In other regions, the <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00908320590943990">rigs-to-reef</a> concept, where infrastructure is either dragged near shore or left in place to form reefs, has been a useful strategy in the decommissioning process. After all, reefs are a prevalent ecosystem in these regions, predating OGP, and the infrastructure can provide the basis for new reef systems. We should consider whether sub-sea infrastructure – redundant or otherwise – that offers novel and productive habitats must be removed.</p>
<p>These are open questions, societal challenges, that we need urgently to face.</p>
<h2>Pragmatic decommissioning</h2>
<p>A dogmatic approach to decommissioning – one that insists that all infrastructure is completely removed – is likely to work against the original motivation of the regulations. We just don’t know what will be the impact on the existing environment of such a change – it might shift the system towards a “better” or “worse” state.</p>
<p>The one thing we know for sure about ecological systems is that they continuously change – so the notion of “returning” an ecosystem to a “pristine” state, while romantic, is not a useful way of looking at it. In fact, it is counterintuitive. This does not mean that we should adopt a <em>laissez-faire</em> approach, but that we should aim for a decommissioning process that maximises the health and resilience of the current ecosystem. </p>
<p>We need to develop a comprehensive environmental decision support system that considers what benefits the removal of each component might bring and what impact this might cause. </p>
<p>If things go ahead as planned, we are about to transform the North Sea into a giant demolition site, a process that will last for the next 20-40 years. Decommissioning on that scale has never been done <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b3255c92-2bca-11e6-a18d-a96ab29e3c95">really</a>. The environmental impact of this new stage of human activity will not be trivial. It will affect both ecosystem functioning and species we care about, particularly those sensitive to noise, while also contributing substantially to carbon emissions. </p>
<p>The OGP infrastructure has been in place for decades, much of it acting as fisheries exclusion zones. Some might now sustain species and habitats crucial to ecosystem functioning. The benefits of complete removal, as originally intended, are therefore now less clear. We need a holistic approach to decommissioning that integrates the environmental costs and benefits at every level and doesn’t just assume that all of the infrastructure is “bad”. That way, the North Sea ecosystem stands the best possible chance of thriving into the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63842/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Neilson has received funding from ITF for research on underwater cutting methods.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Lusseau and John Paterson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Restoring the North Sea to a ‘pristine’ state isn’t necessarily the best thing for its eco-systems.David Lusseau, Professor of Behavioural Biology, University of AberdeenJohn Paterson, Professor, Co-Director, Centre for Energy Law, University of AberdeenRichard Neilson, Reader in Engineering, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/597602016-05-24T12:36:27Z2016-05-24T12:36:27ZMaths swayed the Battle of Jutland – and helped Britain keep control of the seas<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/123406/original/image-20160520-4475-17n8maj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3AHMSDreadnought_gunsLOCBain17494.jpg">Bain via Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>If you’re about to fight a battle, would you rather have a larger fleet, or a smaller but more advanced one? One hundred years ago, on May 31 1916, the British Royal Navy was about to find out if its choice of a larger fleet was the correct one. At the Battle of Jutland – as the major naval battle of World War I is known in English – these choices were unusually influenced by mathematics.</p>
<p>In a technological arms race, the usual choice is to build the most advanced weapons systems of the highest possible quality. Britain faced exactly such a decision at the beginning of the 20th century. After 50 years of evolution in naval technology, in 1906 Britain launched a revolutionary ship, <a href="http://militaryhistory.about.com/od/civilwar/p/cwturningpts.htm">HMS Dreadnought</a>, which incorporated the biggest guns, the toughest armour and a new steam turbine engine in a single battleship. All previous battleships were rendered obsolete, and a new naval arms race was on.</p>
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<p>A year later, Britain <a href="https://pure.york.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/weight-of-shell-must-tell%28186a432d-44bc-4f9b-8ee5-6f6245e1ad44%29.html">had to decide</a> what kind of ships to build next. Should the Royal Navy follow the thinking of Admiral of the Fleet Sir John “Jacky” Fisher and build small numbers of ships even more advanced than Dreadnought? Bravely, a naval committee – including Captain (later Admiral) John Jellicoe – decided to build more of the same, and put as many big guns on the water as possible.</p>
<h2>Lanchester’s ‘N-square law’</h2>
<p>The decision clearly depends on the relative merits – a trade-off – of numbers and quality, and this was the subject of a radical new body of thought in the decades leading up to World War I. The argument is a mathematical one: if two fleets are equipped with long-range guns, all firing on the enemy and causing damage in proportion to their number, then the fleet which wins is determined by the individual effectiveness multiplied not by the number of ships but by its square. For example, a ship would have to be four times as powerful to take on two opponents in a fair fight.</p>
<p>This conclusion is most famously due to British engineer Frederick Lanchester, <a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/math/0606300">who used calculus</a> to derive it in the winter before World War I – and developed the “N-square law”. But it was arrived at independently in many countries, and the version more familiar to Jellicoe and his committee <a href="http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/1905-01/american-naval-policy">came from American Commander Bradley Fiske</a>. It used tables of numbers – what we would think of today as spreadsheets.</p>
<p>Either way, the lesson is stark: to make its numbers count, the larger fleet must fight together, undivided, with all its guns firing. Then even a small numerical advantage will lead to its higher-quality opponent’s annihilation.</p>
<p>By 1916, Britain’s Royal Navy had built a weapon, the Grand Fleet, which could annihilate the German High Seas Fleet, but only if it was wielded in the correct manner. The man who had to do this was Jellicoe, now admiral. In 1916, Jellicoe <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/routledg/hismeth/2016/00000049/00000002/art00002">wrote to Lanchester</a>: “Your N-square law has become quite famous in the Grand Fleet”.</p>
<h2>In the right place</h2>
<p>If the N-square law is due to calculus, then the conditions to create it stem from geometry. The fleet has to be positioned in such a way that all its guns are firing on an enemy, with implications for how a fleet should be commanded. The British Grand Fleet had to be re-organised from its rectangular travelling formation into a single straight fighting line, ideally firing out of the dawn or dusk gloom and curving round an enemy fleet silhouetted against a low sun.</p>
<p>Astonishingly, this was exactly the outcome Jellicoe achieved at 7pm on May 31 1916. But in manoeuvring the fleet into this position, three large British ships <a href="http://www.battle-of-jutland.com/jutland-gains-losses.htm">had been sunk</a> as well as several smaller cruisers, at the cost of over 5,000 British lives. By contrast, the more carefully built German ships stayed afloat, though with their ability to continue the battle heavily degraded.</p>
<h2>Steady tactics</h2>
<p>What happened next has caused controversy ever since. The German fleet dramatically turned tail and ran for home – as it had to if it were to avoid annihilation. The British also then made a turn away, to avoid German torpedoes, and contact between the fleets was lost. </p>
<p>Both sides sustained losses, but the British still retained control of the North Sea. <a href="http://www.battle-of-jutland.com/jutland-battle.htm">Many thought Jellicoe</a> was too cautious and should have given chase to the Germans. Mathematically, it is clear that Jellicoe executed a well-calculated playing of the odds, accepting battle only under perfect circumstances.</p>
<p>War at sea is starker than on land. There is nowhere to hide, and an inferior fleet must expect to be destroyed utterly. The central fact about Lanchestrian calculus is that once the desired fleet geometry has been achieved, nothing is left to chance. The irony for Jellicoe was that by creating the Lanchestrian conditions for which the British fleet had been built, he ensured that the Germans would decline the fight. </p>
<p>The British lost more ships at Jutland, but this does not diminish the significance of the British strategic victory. As <a href="https://pure.york.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/weight-of-shell-must-tell%28186a432d-44bc-4f9b-8ee5-6f6245e1ad44%29.html">our research</a> has shown, in building a fleet suited to the new calculus of war, and then wielding it correctly, Jellicoe ensured British mastery at sea, which laid the foundation for the war-winning actions on land of 1917-18.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59760/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Calculus helped determined the outcome of World War I’s biggest naval battle, 100 years ago.Niall MacKay, Professor of Mathematics and Head of the Department of Mathematics, University of YorkA. Jamie Wood, Senior Lecturer, Departments of Biology and Mathematics, University of YorkChristopher Price, Lecturer in History, York St John UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/373922015-02-10T11:37:23Z2015-02-10T11:37:23ZWhy Norway is not panicking about the oil price collapse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71522/original/image-20150209-24700-qmba14.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Steady as she goes</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&search_tracking_id=rDD6BJysB2sC_8xz4FVRJA&searchterm=norway%20north%20sea%20oil&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=66880">Simon Pedersen</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Norway’s petroleum sector is its most important industry. The petroleum sector <a href="http://priorfx.com/en/technical-analysis/usdnok-rises-test-range-highs/">accounts for 21.5%</a> of its GDP, and almost half (48.9%) of total exports. In 2013 Norway <a href="http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=NO&trk=m">was ranked</a> the 15th-largest oil producer, and the 11th-largest oil exporter in the world. It is also the biggest oil producer in western Europe. </p>
<p>Oil is therefore regarded as a vital national resource and is the backbone of the Norwegian economy, though just like in the UK, its best years are in the past. Production levels <a href="http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Norways-Oil-Decline-Accelerating.html">have been dropping</a> since the turn of the century, peaking at 3.5m barrels per day in 2001 to less than 1.9m in 2014. </p>
<p>Norway is not a member of the <a href="http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/">Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries</a>(OPEC), and in principle it sets prices based on the current market. But with OPEC having a virtual monopoly on global pricing, Norway in effect remains subject to the cartel’s pricing decisions. Norway is thus vulnerable to the volatility in oil pricing, and with regard to the structure of the sector and its role in the Norwegian economy, this vulnerability is extended throughout the society as a whole.</p>
<p>With the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29643612">unsettling and dramatic slide</a> in oil prices since June 2014, Norway has of course been substantially affected. Two months ago, Statistics Norway <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/oils-slump-threatens-norways-economy-1417721313">cut this year’s</a> GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1% on the back of lower prices. A few days later the central bank <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4a83b09e-811c-11e4-896c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3RGqgv8SE">unexpectedly cut</a> interest rates to an all-time low of 1.25% to help stimulate the economy. Some 12,000 jobs <a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/29/norway-oil-jobs-idINL6N0V83L020150129">are being cut</a> as the oil industry pares back about 10% of its workforce, and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/oilman-becomes-milkman-as-crude-slump-kills-norway-s-best-jobs">there are fears</a> that nearly 30,000 more could follow. </p>
<h2>Statoil and the oil industry</h2>
<p>Oil in Norway is dominated by Statoil, the largely state-owned oil company, which controls about 70% of the country’s petroleum production. It <a href="http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/02/statoil-reduces-capital-budget-by-2-billion-following-4q-losses.html">reported staggering losses</a> in the third and fourth quarter of 2014 that were partly the result of the lower oil price – the company’s first loss since it listed on the stock market in 2001. Its share price is also down about a quarter on last summer. The majority of job losses in the sector are due to cost-cutting and reductions to capital expenditure that are aimed at steadying the ship. </p>
<p>Experts regard the low price as a difficulty mainly for the profitability of specific expansion projects, meaning that they could be postponed or even cancelled. High oil prices have made certain investments possible, which are now in trouble. For instance Statoil has held off on decisions on a US$6bn investment into <a href="http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/statoil-needs-more-time-to-decide-on-snorre-c/">the Snorre field</a> in the North Sea and <a href="http://www.offshore-mag.com/articles/2014/10/dot-2014-statoil-takes-hard-look-at-johan-castberg-costs.html">the huge Johan Castberg field</a> in the Barents Sea. </p>
<p>Consultancy Wood Mackenzie is forecasting that petroleum investments in Norwegian waters <a href="http://www.woodmac.com/public/media-centre/12525791">will be down</a> 25% this year, with foreseeable cuts in subsequent years too. There is at least one consolation for the industry: the huge <a href="https://www.lundin-petroleum.com/eng/Development_JohanSverdrup.php">Johan Sverdrup</a> field, which is due to begin output in 2019, <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/statoil-recommended-to-run-johan-sverdrup-oil-field-1417185637">appears to be viable at</a> prices beneath US$40 a barrel. </p>
<p>The Norwegian government also <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/norway-to-award-oil-and-gas-drilling-licences-1421764096">recently announced</a> that by way of stimulus it would award a tranche of new oil and gas drilling licences next year, including opening up the first new area for exploration since the 1990s. It <a href="https://www.dn.no/nyheter/naringsliv/2015/02/03/2152/Oljepris/mange-tusen-oljejobber-kuttes">has also</a> called for the sector to adapt, suggesting that the height of exploration and development has been achieved for oil exploitation, and the sector must now consolidate its position. However, so far there have been few specifics. </p>
<h2>The national budget</h2>
<p>Unlike <a href="https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/73904/sir-ian-wood-six-billion-barrels-north-sea-oil-lost/">in the UK</a>, the main narrative in the Norwegian media is not about cutting producer taxes but worry about the state failing to obtain its expected revenue as outlined in the country’s budget. Some experts <a href="http://e24.no/energi/naa-er-disse-oljefeltene-uloennsomme/23344749">believe that</a> if the trend continues the actual revenue collected for the pension fund this year could be as low as half of what was budgeted, which would doubtless be a blow. </p>
<p>Last month, Norwegian prime minister Erna Solberg and finance minister Siv Jensen <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/norway-sticks-to-budget-plan-despite-oil-price-slump-1421421298">held a press conference</a> on the situation, underlining that the government is prepared to take action if this becomes necessary, but that for the time being, the state budget is sufficiently capable of containing the situation. This means there are currently no plans to make cuts to the budget to cope with lower revenues. </p>
<h2>Sovereign wealth</h2>
<p>The big advantage that Norway has is the US$860bn (£565bn) <a href="https://www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/the-economy/the-government-pension-fund/government-pension-fund-global-gpfg/id697027/">Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global</a> into which the oil money is deposited. Intended as an investment for future generations, it is <a href="http://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/">the largest</a> sovereign wealth fund in the world. </p>
<p>Norway owns <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24049876">an estimated</a> 1% of global stocks and is <a href="http://www.ibtimes.com/norways-sovereign-wealth-fund-top-15-around-world-1402003">considered to be</a> the largest state owner of European stocks. For a country with a population just over 5m, this is a position of remarkable economic strength – thanks primarily to petroleum. The revenue of the sector is not only important as an economic boost, but also as the foundation of the Norwegian welfare state. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=391&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/71595/original/image-20150210-24704-1mwa1qs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=491&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Norwegian oil capital Stavanger will have less for the national oil fund than usual.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/gufoblu/8044227659/in/photolist-dfQLCk-5DKwH-mDgfu-bZ2jUC-orNS9h-6dydwg-haqTNL-oJZP4E-2juJQq-hX1Nt-9jFiR-4Xo1wZ-5eSCm-84AEnD-9ozK8V-2AxuE-9hAeV2-5gP7Va-YPvcb-dhtRDD-81EV3L-nH7JAj-f5avKK-c9KrDf-6HNWA6-bKopPT-bNDFFc-ap1pub-3RRPgN-brWwbc-gEr3Y3-bG9RUP-8xjkdf-fg1zX1-8uwyjz-dNv2og-cFzDTj-qMSPkG-9ejhPG-5sqYxk-azdBsB-oq4CaZ-ophJVT-mqSnfp-bEHJjo-af4Ppf-6re2Vc-c2tBMd-kshrcg-YJYT2">Sergio Pani</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The government is able to spend up to 4% of the fund every year to finance its budget, albeit for investments rather than direct spending. This year, despite a substantial increase to the level of spending, it <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/01/16/norway-economy-idUKL6N0UV1PX20150116">will still</a> only run to about 3% of the total. This is also a country in which unemployment is very low – <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/oilman-becomes-milkman-as-crude-slump-kills-norway-s-best-jobs">below 4%</a>. </p>
<p>In short, the fall in oil prices is problematic but by no means catastrophic for Norway. The general reaction is a pragmatic one: Norway is in the hands of the global market, and will do what it can to maintain a profitable and responsible petroleum sector that serves the interests of the country. There are no illusions that the oil will last forever, or that prices must remain unnaturally high, and it is perhaps precisely these kinds of vulnerabilities that the Norwegian system safeguards against. Short-term losses are expected, but there is continued optimism for long-term gains.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37392/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Buvarp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Norway’s petroleum sector is its most important industry. The petroleum sector accounts for 21.5% of its GDP, and almost half (48.9%) of total exports. In 2013 Norway was ranked the 15th-largest oil producer…Paul Buvarp, PhD Candidate, School of International Relations, University of St AndrewsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/359722015-01-07T16:14:03Z2015-01-07T16:14:03ZNow that the oil price has crashed, the North Sea revival plan is unfit for purpose<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68365/original/image-20150107-2002-1vqoby2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Wood Review has become obsolete</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/s/north+sea/search.html?page=2&thumb_size=mosaic&inline=143481241">vitstudio</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Predicting oil price movements is as risky as exploring for oil itself. The average price for crude fell 10.3% from the start of 2014 to the date of the Scottish independence referendum on September 18. It fluctuated over this period – but few, if any, were predicting any major move in either direction in the months to follow. </p>
<p>Yet during the past three months we have seen another 48.4% fall. Geopolitical factors involving OPEC, the US, Russia and Iran, as well as the economic decline of China and the Eurozone, <a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/12/economist-explains-4">have been touted</a> as contributory causes. Whatever the reason, the trend looks set to continue well into 2015, with Saudi Arabia <a href="http://rt.com/business/217723-saudi-arabia-deficit-oil-prices/">prepared to</a> run a substantial budget deficit and let the price fall to $20 a barrel to win back its market share. </p>
<p><strong>Oil keeps tumbling</strong></p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68370/original/image-20150107-1971-222sni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68370/original/image-20150107-1971-222sni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/68370/original/image-20150107-1971-222sni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=194&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68370/original/image-20150107-1971-222sni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=194&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68370/original/image-20150107-1971-222sni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=194&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68370/original/image-20150107-1971-222sni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68370/original/image-20150107-1971-222sni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/68370/original/image-20150107-1971-222sni.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=243&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil be damned.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/143908/twelve_month.stm">Digital Look/BBC</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The North Sea situation</h2>
<p>The sharp price drop has inevitably had implications for the UK. While the chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2899433/Osborne-warns-energy-firms-airlines-pass-fall-oil-price-customers-face-action.html">has led</a> calls for industries from airlines to utilities to pass on cheaper fuel costs to consumers, <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/north-sea-oil-resilience-fund-4929983">politicians</a> of all hues have been raising concerns about the oil industry. Industry association Oil and Gas UK/Ernst & Young <a href="http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/knowledgecentre/fuellingnextgeneration.cfm">is predicting</a> that 35,000 jobs could be lost over the next five years out of a total of <a href="http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/knowledgecentre/fuellingnextgeneration.cfm">375,000</a> or <a href="http://www.woodreview.co.uk">450,000</a> – depending on whose figures you believe. </p>
<p>Even before the oil price crashed, the UK industry was at a crossroads. Its future was the subject of a series of proposals <a href="http://www.woodreview.co.uk">laid down last February</a> in a report by industry veteran Sir Ian Wood, the UKCS [UK continental shelf] Maximising Recovery Review, which was commissioned by the UK government. </p>
<p>The report was a blueprint for maximising the level of petroleum that can be extracted from the region. Its recommendations included setting up a new oil and gas regulator, closer collaboration between government and industry, developing fields in groups rather than individually to maximise their value and investing to prolong the life of existing infrastructure. </p>
<p>The report stated: “The review believes that urgent and full implementation of the recommendations will have the potential to deliver, at the low end, an additional 3-4bn boe [barrels of oil equivalent] over the next 20 years, worth approximately £200bn to the UK’s economy at today’s prices.” </p>
<p>Presumably this £200bn boost might now be revised drastically downwards, as that was based on an oil price of $109.76 per barrel and not a price around the current $50 mark. As for the 35,000 jobs that OGUK/E&Y predicted were at risk last month, the forecasts were based on interviews and questionnaires that must have taken several months to complete. Would the 35,000 prediction be the same if these interviews were to be conducted now? Or even remotely the same?</p>
<p>Our point is that when oil prices change dramatically, reports on the industry lose their mojo. They are still useful as a starting point but recommendations for saving the industry when oil prices are riding high need to be revised as a matter of urgency when prices fall. </p>
<h2>Wood moves to date</h2>
<p>The present situation is that the government <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/373020/2014-10-07-RPC14-DECC-2129_3__-_Implementation_of_the_Wood_Review_into_UK_offshore_oil_and_gas_regulations.pdf">intends to</a> implement Wood in full. It appointed the head of a new Oil and Gas Authority in November and intends to have the regulator fully operational <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/danny-alexanders-speech-to-oil-and-gas-uk">later this year</a>. Ex-BG executive Andy Samuel duly <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/andy-samuel-begins-role-as-new-chief-executive-of-oil-gas-authority">took up</a> the post on Monday January 5. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chancellor-george-osbornes-autumn-statement-2014-speech">Osborne</a> and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/danny-alexanders-speech-to-oil-and-gas-uk">Danny Alexander</a>, the chief secretary to the Treasury, also announced various measures around December’s Autumn Statement that were mainly aimed at implementing other parts of Wood. These included introducing a new “cluster area” allowance to encourage companies to explore areas surrounding individual fields and grants to fund seismic exploration in under-explored areas. The supplementary tax on profits that oil companies pay on top of corporation tax was meanwhile cut from 32% to 30%. </p>
<p>With the oil price falling so sharply, these plans simply do not go far enough. In addition to fully implementing Wood, the chancellor needs to be seen to act decisively and not merely tinker at the edges of the tax system. It is worth bearing in mind that at the 2011 budget, Osborne raised the supplementary tax rate from 20% to 32%, <a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2011/03/23/524836/osbornes-windfall-tax-on-oil/">using the justification</a> that oil prices had almost doubled. </p>
<p>Now that oil prices have halved in the past six months, this logic indicates that that 12-point hike now needs to be reversed immediately and not only reduced by a paltry two percentage points. Indeed, arguably the oil industry should be put on an equal footing with other industries and the supplementary tax should be removed as a whole. </p>
<p>Then there is petroleum revenue tax. It is an additional 50% tax on petroleum extraction profits that is levied on fields given development consent before March 1993. It should be scrapped as its revenue-raising power <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11246300/Blow-for-Osborne-as-tax-from-old-North-Sea-oil-slumps.html">is now minimal</a>, presumably because oil companies have cut back on their activities in fields that incur PRT. </p>
<h2>Backslappers no more</h2>
<p>There are also issues around implementing the rest of Wood’s recommendations. It appears that it will take the Department of Energy until well into 2016 to fully set up the infrastructure necessary to bring about the efficiency gains that the review envisages. That delay is potentially a death blow to the success of the new initiative. </p>
<p>Then there is the question of the industry sharing technology and working co-operatively in the way that the review suggested. The industry’s appetite for this may have been genuine a year ago, but the 50% fall in oil prices may make the predatory nature of oil companies more evident than the backslapping scout-jamboree gathering that we saw before. </p>
<p>The world has changed in a way that ensures that it is a fallacy to argue that the industry has seen it all before and that we just need to ride out the storm. The <a href="http://www.scottishenergynews.com/n-sea-oil-and-gas-exploration-has-virtually-dried-up-admits-industry-chief-2/">45% increase</a> in North Sea operating costs over the past three years plus the decline in easily accessible reserves makes the North Sea less attractive to invest in than other areas of the world. </p>
<p>The industry unquestionably needs to look at its cost structure. Should it only be contractors who should bear the pain of salary cuts? Can the North Sea oil industry afford the high salaries it has been paying? But equally the oil price drop is a signal that the government needs to redouble its efforts at reform and go much further than Wood. We cannot see why the industry would continue to invest in the North Sea without additional incentives. The future of the industry is on a precipice. The good old days have gone, and they won’t be coming back.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/35972/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Predicting oil price movements is as risky as exploring for oil itself. The average price for crude fell 10.3% from the start of 2014 to the date of the Scottish independence referendum on September 18…Alex Russell, Head of Department of Management and Professor of Petroleum Accounting at Aberdeen Business School, Robert Gordon UniversityPeter Strachan, Strategy and Policy Group Lead and Professor of Energy Policy, Department of Management, Robert Gordon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/331472014-10-17T17:05:41Z2014-10-17T17:05:41ZWhy an $80 barrel of oil is bad<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62105/original/tnczjnzd-1413559101.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is trouble brewing in the North Sea?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/oter/7857286342/in/photolist-cYjDub-GtFmc-9Y43Nn-57njL4-avFYCS-471EuR-6Jmzc-6bL1gX-4HGefe-4Bj9aU-dfnVpp-FpbRa-ekUMJV-cKrGZh-6HpMDu-Rx7u6-98jt3K-7Zja6s-6eD1aN-efMpis-8EvcNt-649Ne5-bpFFVp-8zcrNF-dRuHpj-7YUycy-6HPouy-avFYCU-avFYCN-RuUTy-Gqp5i-RwrqP-9XVyzc-9XVyze-roBiy-Rx7zv-9FFv4n-5HmT51-6Jmzu-63uNNZ-7MEF2z-5o3i4i-bY8eU5-Zpph-9Tbwyu-5WzXN5-5o3i9F-g4juHd-3f6pRG-hWKRtX">Jo Christian Oterhals</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The dramatic and unexpected <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21625819-oil-price-tumbling-good-or-bad-news-world-economy-both">20% fall in oil prices</a> since mid-June has caused alarm in Scotland, the UK and indeed worldwide. Why did oil prices slump to a four-year low of US$84 (£52) per barrel this week, and what are the consequences?</p>
<p>Most experts have certainly been wrong-footed by the fall. The <a href="http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/community/trading/oil-forecast-for-2014-remains-bullish.html">general view</a> of forecasters had been that the Brent oil price would fall marginally from its circa $110-$115 level of 2011-2013 but would remain above $100 throughout 2014. For example the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) had forecast an average 2014 price for Brent crude of $104 per barrel. Some experts such as energy analyst Chris Nelder <a href="http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/the-take/oil-and-gas-price-forecast-for-2014/">predicted</a> a range of possible oil prices for 2014 of between $105 and $125 per barrel. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62099/original/vyj53w3g-1413557815.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62099/original/vyj53w3g-1413557815.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62099/original/vyj53w3g-1413557815.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62099/original/vyj53w3g-1413557815.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62099/original/vyj53w3g-1413557815.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62099/original/vyj53w3g-1413557815.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62099/original/vyj53w3g-1413557815.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62099/original/vyj53w3g-1413557815.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=587&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.digitallook.com/dlmedia/investing/commodities">Digital Look</a></span>
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</figure>
<p>These forecasts seemed sound at the time. Global oil demand has <a href="http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2014-full-report.pdf">increased annually</a> for many years and is <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102084506">likely to be</a> of the order of 33.7bn barrels for 2014. This is a year-on-year increase, but not as much as was previously expected. </p>
<p>The mixture of a stagnant eurozone economy and a depressed Chinese industrial sector <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102084506">has curbed demand</a> at a time when Saudi Arabia <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/15/us-markets-oil-production-analysis-idUSKCN0I40CP20141015">has been attempting</a> to win back market share from the US by increasing production and selling it at a cheap price. This concoction of reduced demand and oversupply has all the ingredients of a perfect storm. And the fallout could well be dramatic for many countries.</p>
<h2>Impact on the North Sea</h2>
<p>As recently as September 29, trade association Oil & Gas UK (OGUK) <a href="http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/cmsfiles/modules/publications/pdfs/EC041.pdf">predicted</a> an end to the recent UK North Sea production slump – indeed the first year of increased production since 2000, thanks to new fields opening and existing ones coming back online. With still more fields due to start production in the next couple of years, OGUK was optimistic that production would rise steadily and possibly hit 2m barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per day by 2017 (or 730m for the year). </p>
<p><strong>Daily North Sea oil production, barrels per day (bpd)</strong> </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62077/original/tnwf7wys-1413543805.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62077/original/tnwf7wys-1413543805.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62077/original/tnwf7wys-1413543805.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62077/original/tnwf7wys-1413543805.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62077/original/tnwf7wys-1413543805.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=356&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62077/original/tnwf7wys-1413543805.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62077/original/tnwf7wys-1413543805.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62077/original/tnwf7wys-1413543805.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">DECC, 12 months to June 2014</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The industry had shown its commitment by investing heavily during 2013 (over £14bn – easily the highest in years) and promising to invest modestly over 2014. So far, that investment has already been disappointing, perhaps due to uncertainty caused by the referendum-inspired negative stance of Westminster, the Office for Budget Responsibility and the department of energy towards the future prospects of the North Sea industry. As at October 1, <a href="https://itportal.decc.gov.uk/pprs/report4.pdf">UK government figures indicate</a> that only £4bn has been committed for the year so far. </p>
<p>If oil prices continue to hover around the $80 a barrel mark for any length of time, even this investment will grind to a halt. It is not that oil can’t be produced economically at $80 in the North Sea. The average was cited as $27 earlier this year, but it is rising fast (up 27% year on year) and a rising number of fields require rather higher prices – especially the deep water plays west of Shetland. </p>
<p>And above all, there are much easier pickings elsewhere, so prolonged low prices will encourage the big oil companies to look there instead. There have already been substantial falls in the share prices of Scottish oil companies – for example oil services firm Wood Group is down about 14% over the course of October so far. In short, the market has been spooked. </p>
<p>The oil price also has a significant bearing on the future prospects for fracking in England. Horizontal drilling is expensive and while gas may still be economically exploitable at current prices, tight oil extraction from shale looks a decidedly unattractive prospect. This will make it harder for prospectors to raise investment, at the very least. </p>
<h2>Impact worldwide</h2>
<p>Many countries’ economies depend on oil being priced at least $90 to $100 per barrel, including Russia, Venezuela, Iran and Libya. Perhaps the most vulnerable is that of Russia, where the most influential people in the country have vested interests in oil. Putin’s popularity may drop as fast as the recent oil price if these prices stay at a low level. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62082/original/pwhhkr7s-1413545693.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62082/original/pwhhkr7s-1413545693.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/62082/original/pwhhkr7s-1413545693.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62082/original/pwhhkr7s-1413545693.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62082/original/pwhhkr7s-1413545693.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=903&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62082/original/pwhhkr7s-1413545693.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1135&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62082/original/pwhhkr7s-1413545693.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1135&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/62082/original/pwhhkr7s-1413545693.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1135&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Over a barrel.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/oter/7857286342/in/photolist-cYjDub-GtFmc-9Y43Nn-57njL4-avFYCS-471EuR-6Jmzc-6bL1gX-4HGefe-4Bj9aU-dfnVpp-FpbRa-ekUMJV-cKrGZh-6HpMDu-Rx7u6-98jt3K-7Zja6s-6eD1aN-efMpis-8EvcNt-649Ne5-bpFFVp-8zcrNF-dRuHpj-7YUycy-6HPouy-avFYCU-avFYCN-RuUTy-Gqp5i-RwrqP-9XVyzc-9XVyze-roBiy-Rx7zv-9FFv4n-5HmT51-6Jmzu-63uNNZ-7MEF2z-5o3i4i-bY8eU5-Zpph-9Tbwyu-5WzXN5-5o3i9F-g4juHd-3f6pRG-hWKRtX">LC Nottaasen</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Saudi Arabia has continued to keep production high despite falling prices and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29594761">seems prepared</a> to let prices fall to $77 per barrel in an attempt to win back market share. This is a direct challenge to the US, where some shale oil extraction <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-social-media-transformed-pro-russian-nostalgia-into-violence-in-ukraine-33046">becomes uneconomic</a> at around $80 per barrel. </p>
<p>If oil prices do fall below $80 per barrel, tensions between countries would rise and protective measures would be taken. OPEC would carry the can for allowing prices to fall, which would be ironic considering it has been pilloried in the past for keeping them high. One way or another, the powerful countries will prevail through this period. In the long run, oil prices will start rising again. The world’s oil producers will simply not be able to meet global demand for any length of time if prices remain this low.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/33147/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Russell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The dramatic and unexpected 20% fall in oil prices since mid-June has caused alarm in Scotland, the UK and indeed worldwide. Why did oil prices slump to a four-year low of US$84 (£52) per barrel this week…Alex Russell, Head of Department of Management and Professor of Petroleum Accounting at Aberdeen Business School, Robert Gordon UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.