tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/nt-politics-10130/articlesNT politics – The Conversation2023-12-19T04:50:22Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2201372023-12-19T04:50:22Z2023-12-19T04:50:22ZNorthern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has resigned. How did we get here?<p>When it was announced this afternoon that the Northern Territory’s Chief Minister Natasha Fyles had resigned, few could say it was unexpected.</p>
<p>She has been under increasing pressure on several fronts, chief among them the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-16/nt-chief-minister-divests-woodside-shares-after-scrutiny/103114812">failure to disclose</a> shares she held, prompting accusations of having a conflict of interest.</p>
<p>In the role for around 18 months, Fyles’ Labor government has been in the spotlight for everything from <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-18/a-dangerous-game-youth-crime-crisis-alice-springs/101735492">increased crime rates</a> in Alice Springs to the controversial decision to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-03/beetaloo-basin-fracking-given-go-ahead-explainer/102295840">approve fracking</a> in the Beetaloo Basin.</p>
<p>So what’s behind Fyles quitting the territory’s top job, and what’s next for the government?</p>
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<h2>A surprise ascent to leadership</h2>
<p>Fyles was sworn in as chief minister in May 2022, following <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/10/northern-territory-chief-minister-michael-gunner-resigns-saying-head-and-heart-no-longer-in-job">the resignation</a> of Michael Gunner.</p>
<p>She won the leadership against expectations, despite being Gunner’s protege. The right faction, which has a majority of two in the party caucus, had backed Nicole Manison. But two members defected and voted for Fyles instead, securing her victory in the leadership ballot.</p>
<p>Fyles has been the member for Nightcliff since 2012 and held a range of important portfolios before her promotion, including health and Attorney-General.</p>
<p>Her leadership style has been not unlike most of the new generation of politicians: speaking in short, sharp sentences with authoritative confidence.</p>
<p>But she’s overseen some odd and sometimes unpopular decisions.</p>
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<p>The $11 million Nightcliff Police Station was built in her electorate, despite being just a seven-minute drive from Casuarina station. Allegations of <a href="https://www.ntnews.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=NTWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ntnews.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnorthern-territory%2Fnew-nightcliff-police-station-operating-at-half-planned-capacity%2Fnews-story%2Fda28cb3fb239b5f4f80589f1471af90d&memtype=registered&mode=premium">pork-barrelling</a> were quick to follow, especially after reports emerged of the facility having half the staff promised.</p>
<p>There was also the matter of the Palmerston Hospital, which opened in 2018, when Fyles was health minister. It’s since been plagued by <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-07/nt-health-darwin-apology-for-letter-junior-doctors/100519640">understaffing</a> and <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-05/palmerston-regional-hospital-budget-attorney-general/10201108">underfunding</a>.</p>
<h2>Two key undoings</h2>
<p>Smaller controversies aside, there have been two main pressure points for Fyles’ leadership.</p>
<p>The first is crime in remote communities, especially the much-publicised plight of Alice Springs.</p>
<p>While the issue is hardly unique to the city, the national interest generated by the removal and reinstatement of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/23/incredibly-noticeable-alcohol-bans-have-cut-family-violence-and-in-alice-springs-advocates-say">alcohol bans</a> shone a large and often unflattering light on crime rates across the Northern Territory.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/cheap-police-four-corners-shows-the-dangers-of-private-policing-in-the-nt-and-why-first-nations-people-are-more-at-risk-216442">'Cheap police': Four Corners shows the dangers of private policing in the NT and why First Nations people are more at risk</a>
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<p>The fact the federal government <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-24/pm-albanese-announces-appointment-of-central/101889078">intervened</a> to create the role of the Regional Controller – a role the Commonwealth funds and manages – shows how little confidence they had in the territory government.</p>
<p>The second, more recent problem is the revelations around Fyles’ potential conflicts of interest.</p>
<p>It was revealed earlier this week the chief <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-18/nt-chief-minister-natasha-fyles-south32-shares-gemco-mine/103243578">owns shares</a> in South32, a company that owns a manganese mine on Groote Eylandt. She hadn’t disclosed this, despite appearing to have owned them since 2015.</p>
<p>Locals have been lobbying for years for the mine <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-18/nt-government-air-monitoring-manganese-mine-groote-eylandt-dust/102130316">to be tested</a> for its potential impact on human health, but to no avail.</p>
<p>It wasn’t even the first instance in the past month of undisclosed shares coming to light. In November, Fyles divested her <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-16/nt-chief-minister-divests-woodside-shares-after-scrutiny/103114812">minor stake</a> in gas company Woodside Energy.</p>
<p>But the final nail in the coffin came last week, when matters swirling around Fyles were referred to the territory’s corruption watchdog.</p>
<p>One of her senior political advisors, Gerard Richardson, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-13/natasha-fyles-referred-to-icac-by-mark-turner/103220822">co-owns a company</a> that lobbied on behalf of mining company Tamboran – a company that has <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-06-09/middle-arm-precinct-tamboran-resources-fortescue/102461860">large stakes</a> in multiple projects in the NT.</p>
<p>While she dug her heels in, the news went down like a lead balloon in the electorate, and likely in the party room too.</p>
<h2>A salvagable government?</h2>
<p>Politics in the Top End is a strange beast. Fyles stepping down as leader doesn’t necessarily mean she takes the government down with her.</p>
<p>The way politics plays out in the territory has long been down to the happiness or unhappiness of key interest groups.</p>
<p>With some electorates containing just 5,000 people or so, the blessing (or lack thereof) of recreational fishers or the police association, for example, can have a disproportionate affect.</p>
<p>So in choosing its next leader, the Labor party will be considering who appeals most to the most important groups.</p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-havent-got-anybody-new-research-reveals-how-major-parties-are-dying-in-remote-australia-203124">'We haven't got anybody': new research reveals how major parties are dying in remote Australia</a>
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<p>That’s why the current Minister for Recreational Fisheries (among many other things), Joel Bowden, might be in with a shot. The former Richmond footballer might have the right appeal with those who are most electorally influential. </p>
<p>But the government will have to contend with an increase in environment-focused politics in the lead-up to the next election in 2024.</p>
<p>Conservationist issues have gathered momentum in the past few years and their potential impact should not be underestimated. Greens and conservationists appear to be gaining increasing Indigenous support.</p>
<p>The next leader will need to be agile enough to deal with these newer forces, but compelling enough to win the party a third term in government.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220137/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The leader has been under increasing pressure on a number of fronts, chief among them the failure to disclose shares she held, prompting accusations of having a conflict of interest.Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/641062016-08-29T01:02:23Z2016-08-29T01:02:23ZDisunity is death? The demise of the CLP government in the Northern Territory<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/135705/original/image-20160828-17847-b0itm1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Michael Gunner is the NT's new chief minister following a landslide election win.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Neda Vanovac</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Before Saturday’s <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/">Northern Territory election</a> Burt, the psychic crocodile in a popular tourist attraction in Darwin, <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/lifestyle/plunge-on-clp-after-burt-the-croc-picks-upset-win/news-story/54d21374bb493693d56befe7c05fe8c5">predicted</a> a Country Liberal Party (CLP) victory. The bookmakers’ odds shifted slightly, with the price on a CLP victory falling from A$12 to A$10. Labor went from $1.01 to $1.03, suggesting the non-credulous punters were in the know.</p>
<p>Supporting predictions of a swing and that opinions had been formed well before the election campaign, a record number of voters had <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/08/surge-in-early-voting-at-2016-northern-territory-election.html">cast their ballots</a> before election day.</p>
<p>In the event, as ever, the online betting agencies were the winners. </p>
<p>Apart from the CLP, the other losers were the sausage sizzlers. Because of a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-27/nt-election-independents-cry-foul-of-100m-exclusion-zone/7787518">new rule</a> banning handing out how-to-vote cards and advertising within 100 metres of the polling booth, at many booths voters were able to park between the beckoning party faithful and the booth, spelling economic irrelevance for putative sizzlers.</p>
<p>The big winner, of course, was Labor. On the election evening’s counting, the ALP had clearly won 13 seats, a majority in the 25-member Legislative Assembly. The CLP had won only two. </p>
<h2>Where it was won</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/a-moving-trainwreck-why-the-clp-will-be-swept-from-office-in-the-northern-territory-63345">As I predicted</a>, three independents were elected: in the Darwin rural area the veteran <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/nels/">Gerry Wood</a> and the Speaker <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/goyd/">Kezia Purick</a>; and the ex-CLP deputy chief minister, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/aral/">Robyn Lambley</a>, won Araluen, a seat in Alice Springs. </p>
<p>After election night I saw about six seats still in some doubt. ABC psephologist <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/">Anthony Green</a> predicted Labor would have a final tally of at least 16, with four seats too close to call.</p>
<p>I suspect the CLP will still win <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/kath/">Katherine</a> and Adam Giles’ seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/brai/">Braitling</a> in Alice Springs, giving it four members in the assembly. That is because of the new <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/02/northern-territory-adopts-optional-preferential-voting-and-bans-campaigning-near-polling-places.html">optional preferential voting system</a>.</p>
<p>In Braitling, for example, Giles led the Labor candidate by about 450 votes on first preferences. He was faced with four independents, three unsympathetic to the CLP, plus the Greens. In a conventional election he would lose the seat on preferences. </p>
<p>These four candidates have twice the votes required to elect Labor on a two-party-preferred basis – if their preferences were all distributed. What we don’t know is how many of these ballot papers were not filled out except for a simple “1” for the voter’s preferred independent. </p>
<p>Conversely, in another tight challenge, this effect means Labor may yet win <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/kara/">Karama</a> in Darwin from a strong independent, former Labor leader Delia Lawrie. That would give it 18 seats.</p>
<h2>Why was the election important?</h2>
<p>Apart from a change of government, what is the significance of this election?</p>
<p>It obviously confirms that the NT and the Australian electorates are in a volatile phase. But I see it as an even more transitional election than the 2012 poll. </p>
<p>In 2012 the CLP swept to victory because it won the Aboriginal vote for the first time, picking up five of the six “bush” (regional) seats. In 2016 the Aboriginal vote has returned to Labor, a process evident in voting in <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/ling/">Lingiari</a> in the intervening two federal elections.</p>
<p>The return of the Aboriginal vote to Labor is not stable. The new government is going to have to do something serious about reforming bush local government, decentralising it and returning more power to communities. It is also going to have to do something about housing and community affairs. </p>
<p>The growth of Aboriginal assertion was evidenced by the large number of highly credible Aboriginal candidates. One Aboriginal independent in the seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/nhul/">Nhulunbuy</a>, Yingiya Mark Guyula, obtained 42% of the primary vote and gave Labor deputy leader Lynne Walker a scare. </p>
<p>Guyula is a senior figure in the Yolngu Nations Assembly, which is trying to establish treaty rights with the NT and federal governments. Expect more Aboriginal assertion.</p>
<p>Another factor in this election pointed to Darwin and the NT becoming more socially similar to the rest of Australia. Sexism, leading to the departure from the government of four women MLAs, was one factor in the CLP’s demise.</p>
<p>The CLP must change if it is to renew. Giles <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/northern-territory-election-labor-wins-as-adam-giles-concedes-20160827-gr2rcg.html">blamed “disunity”</a> for the demise of his government. That is one description of the shenanigans that went on, but the CLP was really the victim of new times.</p>
<p>Michael Gunner is the first chief minister <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-27/labor-wins-nt-election-in-landslide/7791604">born in the NT</a>. That itself is an indicator of the NT’s socio-demographic maturation away from its traditional “frontier” and male-dominated ethos.</p>
<h2>Hard choices</h2>
<p>And what of the new Labor government? </p>
<p>Gunner did some brave things during the election campaign. He indicated he is going to use natural attrition permanently to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-25/nt-treasury-costs-clp-and-labor-promises/7786296">reduce the numbers</a> of the overblown NT public service. This is necessary if any semblance of control over the NT’s fiscal position is to be achieved. </p>
<p>He also promised to <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/business/labor-planning-to-allow-uber-to-operate-in-northern-territory-if-it-wins-august-election/news-story/77a12b0cfb612b880e633342226b9af2">allow Uber</a> to enter the Darwin market. Privileging future consumers over existing interests – in this case taxi drivers – has not previously been an NT government attribute. </p>
<p>He has <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-18/clp-votes-down-icac-style-anti-corruption-commission-motion/6554992">promised an ICAC-type body</a> – a direct threat to the “mates” system that characterised the previous CLP government (for example, in the allocation of water licences). </p>
<p>However, Gunner has impending problems. A significant proportion of the community vehemently opposes <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-06/new-fracking-laws-begin-in-northern-territory/7571978">shale gas fracking</a>. Labor promised a moratorium while it considers the issue. But next year the NT is likely to enter into recession and onshore gas exports are its only likely economic lifeline. Hard choices will have to be made.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/64106/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen has received funding from the NT Departments of Education and Local Government.</span></em></p>The Country Liberal Party really was the victim of the times in its landslide loss in Saturday’s Northern Territory election.Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/633452016-08-17T03:54:40Z2016-08-17T03:54:40ZA moving trainwreck? Why the CLP will be swept from office in the Northern Territory<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/133890/original/image-20160812-20932-14zcjmz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Adam Giles' Country Liberal Party expected at least two terms in government in the Northern Territory when it won office in 2012.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dean Lewins</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the political voyeur, the inevitable defeat of a government is full of interest. Once they have lost the mandate of heaven, declining governments seem also to lose their luck. Stumbles become crises and bureaucratic failures scandals. There is much that is politically salacious to discuss.</p>
<p>This is the case for the Country Liberal Party (CLP) government in the Northern Territory. The CLP faces <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/08/2016-northern-territory-election.html">near-certain defeat</a> at the polls on August 27.</p>
<h2>A series of disasters</h2>
<p>To general amazement the CLP <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-the-nt-election-outcome-a-shockwave-or-a-regional-ripple-9138">captured office</a> in 2012 on the back of winning the Aboriginal “bush” vote for the first time since NT self-government in 1978.</p>
<p>In 2012, the CLP swept the “bush” seats and won government. That was because of the leadership of Terry Mills and his partnership with Alison Anderson, initially elected as a Labor MLA in 2005 and the most formidable Aboriginal politician in NT history. </p>
<p>The CLP expected at least two terms in government. That dream is about to turn to dust.</p>
<p>Shortly after securing government, Adam Giles overthrew Mills as CLP leader and chief minister. This was interpreted “down south” as a panic reaction to the unexpected overthrow of Ted Baillieu in Victoria. But it had more to do with some “good old boys” in the parliamentary party seizing upon the inevitable stumbles of a new government and an opportunistic reaction to public hostility to the government <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/business/nt-power-prices-tipped-to-fall-by-5-per-cent-from-january-1/news-story/25a336afac083135b4de6e65a85ce3f8">setting electricity prices</a> at a level that would maintain an efficient power generation system. </p>
<p>Giles was now chief minister and electricity price increases were reduced. So far so good for the CLP. But it was not to last.</p>
<p>A wave of misadventures rolled over the government. Dave Tollner was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-22/nt-deputy-leader-dave-tollner-resigns-over-gay-slur-comments/5690686">forced to resign</a> as treasurer over homophobic comments; he was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/feb/10/controversial-mp-dave-tollner-big-winner-in-northern-territory-reshuffle">later reinstated</a>. </p>
<p>The CLP’s Aboriginal women MPs were subject to racist and sexist slurs in the partyroom. Two (including Anderson) of the three <a href="https://theconversation.com/pups-recruits-cause-a-stir-and-ripples-may-spread-beyond-nt-26001">left the government</a> and eventually became independents. </p>
<p>The government began to lose public support and goodwill. It privatised government assets, like the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-24/nt-government-confirms-$424m-tio-sale/5912838">Territory Insurance Office</a>. But NT voters were in no mood for economic rationalism.</p>
<p>The government’s support further eroded, particularly when Labor rid itself of an unpopular leader (Delia Lawrie) and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-23/nt-labor-unveils-new-look-front-bench-resignation-delia-lawrie/6415136">replaced her</a> with an electable one (Michael Gunner). Then Mills’ former deputy chief minister, Robyn Lambley, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-17/robyn-lambley-quits-clp-to-sit-as-independent/6554140">left the government</a> and became an independent. Suddenly, the government had lost its comfortable majority and faced a more contested parliamentary environment. </p>
<p>Its speaker and former deputy leader, Kezia Purick, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-20/kezia-purick-quits-country-liberals-nt-government-loses-majority/6632916">also left the CLP</a> and became an independent, mostly over planning issues but also irked by the sexism/homophobia of her male colleagues. The government tried to replace her as speaker <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/nt-speaker-kezia-purick-holds-government-ministers-in-contempt-of-parliament-over-misleading-ads/news-story/172d320529058c855b7bd195938c3d79">but failed</a>. This was a portent.</p>
<p>Defections from the CLP’s organisational wing started; a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-17/new-proposed-political-party-opposed-to-fracking/6627904">new party</a>, <a href="http://1territory.party/">1 Territory</a>, is contesting this election as a result. </p>
<p>The pace of problems picked up. Sports Minister Nathan Barrett <a href="http://www.mamamia.com.au/nathan-barrett-resigns/">resigned from cabinet</a> in June after sending videos of himself performing a sex act to a constituent. And, in recent weeks, the Young CLP president, Ben Dawson, <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/young-country-liberals-party-president-ben-dawson-leaves-to-work-for-independent-candidate-terry-mills/news-story/f51811ae1e44439d43ba2ec3b02b8017">resigned from the party</a>. </p>
<h2>The 2016 campaign</h2>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/don-dale-royal-commission">Don Dale Detention Centre</a> imbroglio has dominated the election campaign. An <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2016/07/25/4504895.htm">ABC Four Corners program</a> revealed systemic abuse of children in the NT’s juvenile justice system under both Labor and CLP administrations. </p>
<p>Instant national outrage led to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull initiating a royal commission to investigate the abuse.</p>
<p>Ironically, apart from embarrassing progressive/liberal Territorians, this scandal did not damage the Giles government, which is <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/nt-leader-adam-giles-tells-politicians-to-play-nice/news-story/c1318f96b9dd2ed94db6dbb7449b280d">now campaigning</a> on law-and-order issues – a reliable vote-winner for the CLP. Giles has even had the gall to claim that the program was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/29/adam-giles-suggests-lawyers-who-spoke-to-four-corners-had-political-motives">politically motivated</a>.</p>
<p>To a degree, all these problems were part of an existential conflict within the CLP. The Giles government is of the traditional “good old boys” developmentalist-style of the CLP: a cross between Hansonite hostility to the “other” and Bjelke-Petersen-style state subsidy of the “mates”. But Darwin has changed; the latte drinkers’ population ratio is now similar to that in southern capitals.</p>
<p>Greens voters <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/results/">now exist</a> in the same proportion as in other Australian cities. A new conservative party is required to adjust to these realities. This sociopolitical conflict will play out after the election.</p>
<p>Both parties have campaigned in good pork-barrelling style and have made promises that will be fiscally unaffordable. Ratings agency Moody’s recently <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/nts-credit-rating-downgraded/news-story/6574a7c19a9d4c3e9cf409dd373f2720">downgraded the NT’s credit rating</a>. But the eventual budgetary reckoning can wait. </p>
<h2>What to expect</h2>
<p>In any case, it seems the content of the policies released is of little consequence; the electors have made up their minds. They are not exactly <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/wayne-goss-a-shy-premier-who-brought-forth-the-sunshine-20141110-11jsdr.html">waiting with baseball bats</a> on their porches but enough of them have made up their minds to sweep the CLP from office.</p>
<p>The CLP’s vote in the urban areas will decline, though not by anywhere near the 20% <a href="https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/08/01/mediareach-64-36-labor-northern-territory/">some polls predict</a>. It will probably lose only one urban seat. The CLP will lose government in the bush. Is this Alison Anderson’s final political impact?</p>
<p>I expect Labor to win back all the bush electorates – <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/daly/">Daly</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/arnh/">Arnhem</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/araf/">Arafura</a>, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/nama/">Namatjira</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/stua/">Stuart</a> – that it lost at the 2012 election. It will also gain <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/blai/">Blain</a> in Palmerston, notwithstanding that Mills is running as an independent. It will form government with 17 seats.</p>
<p>The CLP will retain three seats in Darwin/Palmerston, plus <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/kath/">Katherine</a> and <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nt-election-2016/guide/brai/">Braitling</a> in Alice Springs. So it will be the opposition, with five seats.</p>
<p>There will be three independents: Gerry Wood and Purick in the Darwin rural area and Lambley in Alice Springs.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/63345/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>In the past two years Rolf Gerritsen has received commissioned research funding from the Northern Territory departments of Education and Local Government.</span></em></p>The Country Liberal Party government in the Northern Territory faces near-certain defeat on August 27.Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370582015-02-03T04:17:55Z2015-02-03T04:17:55Z‘Strong’ men in peril: PM hangs on amid NT and Qld shake-up<p><em>* Updated Tuesday 11pm AEDT:</em> A state <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-voters-send-a-strong-message-to-eject-newman-37018">premier</a> gone, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/nt-chief-minister-giles-refuses-to-quit-after-leadership-coup/6065200">a chief minister</a> fighting off a coup, and a prime minister struggling to avoid the others’ fate. </p>
<p>Australian politics is suddenly all about consultative rather than “strong” leaders. </p>
<p>So what’s been going on behind that swing away from self-declared strong leaders? What are the lessons from the Queensland election and the power struggle in the Northern Territory? And has Tony Abbott shown any sign of learning what the true definition of a “strong leader” is?</p>
<h2>Trouble in the Top End</h2>
<p>In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the Northern Territory’s ruling Country Liberal Party revealed that government MPs had ousted Chief Minister Adam Giles, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/colleagues-lost-confidence-in-giles-says-new-westra-van-holthe/6065200">replacing him</a> – only temporarily, it later turned out – with Willem Westra van Holthe. </p>
<p>It’s important to note that the NT leadership spill has roots going back long before last weekend’s shock Queensland election result, as <a href="https://theconversation.com/nt-spill-has-local-roots-pre-dating-any-queensland-induced-panic-37098">Rolf Gerritsen has explained</a>.</p>
<p>But Westra van Holthe said that the rout of the Queensland Liberal National Party and its leader Campbell Newman was a contributing factor in moving against Giles:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Under my leadership, this government will be more consultative with Territorians and engage with them before we make important and crucial decisions … If you look at the result of the Queensland election, government there was punished because the people of Queensland thought they had lost touch with real people.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>But the chief minister was not going down without a fight, refusing to quit his position. </p>
<p>Remarkably, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/giles-to-remain-nt-leader-westra-van-holthe-appointed-deputy/6067940">by Tuesday night</a> Giles had been <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/adam-giles-has-seen-off-a-challenge-from-his-colleagues-to-remain-leader-of-the-clp-in-the-northern-territory/story-fnk0b1zt-1227207013898">reconfirmed as chief minister</a>, with Westra van Holthe becoming his deputy.</p>
<h2>A nation’s captain at sea</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, just as the Top End power struggle appeared to be over, the federal government’s woes appeared to be deepening. <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/warren-entsch-plans-resolution-of-tony-abbott-leadership-drama/6066842">Coalition backbenchers</a> including Queenslander Warren Entsch and West Australian Dennis Jensen have now spoken about the need for a leadership spill.</p>
<p>Their comments came just a day after <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/tony-abbott-press-club-speech-key-points-and-full-transcript/story-e6frg6n6-1227205021408">Abbott gave a speech</a> that he hoped would save his prime ministership, after too many misjudged “captain’s calls”.</p>
<p>Addressing a room full of journalists and Coalition colleagues at the National Press Club, he used <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/tony-abbott-press-club-speech-key-points-and-full-transcript/story-e6frg6n6-1227205021408">his prepared speech</a> to define his view of leadership:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Leadership is about making the right decisions for our country’s future. It’s not a popularity contest. It’s about real results, it’s about determination, and it’s about you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>However, when questioned by reporters about his “captain’s pick” in awarding Prince Philip a knighthood <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-26/abbott-defends-knighthood-for-prince-philip/6046380">without consulting his cabinet</a>, Abbott promised to seek more advice from them in future:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I like my colleagues, I respect my colleagues, I trust my colleagues, above all else, to want to do the right thing by themselves, by our party, by the government and by the country.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Those two quotes illustrate the dilemma of modern political leadership. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"562529229753942016"}"></div></p>
<h2>How ‘strong’ can a leader be without alienating people?</h2>
<p>One of Australia’s leading scholars on political leadership, the late Graham Little, concentrated much of his research on answering this question. His 1988 book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Strong-Leadership-Thatcher-Reagan-Eminent/dp/0195547594">Strong Leadership: Thatcher, Reagan and an Eminent Person</a>, was based on his studies of leadership through observing Malcolm Fraser, Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. </p>
<p>Based on this research, Little argued that strong party leaders “have become symbols of who we are, personifications of our way of life and our deepest beliefs”. In arguing this, Little acknowledged a changing political environment in which a leader’s personality and party ideology were becoming intertwined. </p>
<p>Little also argued that “a strong leader” must preserve his own thinking by insulating himself against other points of view. Above all, a “strong leader” must trust in his convictions, often at the expense of others.</p>
<p>Less than two decades later, Australian politics professor Judith Brett applied Little’s theories to John Howard, in her Quarterly Essay, <a href="http://www.quarterlyessay.com/issue/exit-right-unravelling-john-howard">Exit Right: The Unravelling of John Howard</a>, which analysed the outcome of the 2007 election. Early in the essay she noted that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>sometimes Strong Leaders lose. All through 2007, as opinion polls gave Labor a minimum of a ten-point lead, and Howard was staring at defeat, we saw the inherent limits of this style of leadership. Strong Leaders can’t last forever; they can’t admit their mistakes; and they’re not very good at policy.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>The rise and fall of Howard and Rudd</h2>
<p>2007 marked a turning point in Australian politics. During the 2007 federal election, “strong leadership” was at its apex, as Howard struggled to maintain his “strong leadership” while Kevin Rudd thrived on his own.</p>
<p>The ALP rode a wave based on highly personalised slogans like “<a href="http://www.stwgroup.com.au/what-we-do/projects/minerals-council-of-of-australia-keep-mining-strong-2">Kevin 07”</a>and <a href="http://electionspeeches.moadoph.gov.au/speeches/2007-kevin-rudd">“New Leadership”</a> to win that election. </p>
<p>The ALP’s strategy was to personify Rudd as Modern Labor in every conceivable fashion. It achieved this by portraying Rudd as a master of new policy initiatives, the boy from country Queensland where the ALP itself had been born, and the man who understood the party’s values better than anyone else.</p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Kevin Rudd’s 2007 pitch for the prime ministership.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since the 2007 election, the voting public has not responded well to the “Strong Leadership” strategy. But the major political parties have yet to move on.</p>
<p>At the 2010 federal election, Gillard tried to find “<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2010/08/02/2971264.htm">the real Julia</a>” as a model for “Strong Leadership” and ended up losing a number of seats, <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/elections/federal_elections/2010/">hobbling into minority government in the process</a>. </p>
<h2>A loud message from Queensland</h2>
<p>Negative reactions to “Strong Leadership” have occurred in state elections too, most notably in <a href="http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/publications/research-papers/1386-2010-victorian-state-election/download">Victorian Labor’s loss in 2010</a>, (“strong leadership for the times ahead”), and the South Australian Labor (<a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/01/29/in-south-australia-jay4sa-a-bizarre-mirror-image-of-kevin07/">Jay4SA)</a> near defeat <a href="http://www.ecsa.sa.gov.au/elections/state-elections/2014-state-election-results-summary">last year</a>.</p>
<p>Last Saturday’s Queensland election was the clearest sign yet of voters’ feelings about strong leadership taken too far.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/X806o5dXDrg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Despite promoting a “Strong Team”, Campbell Newman dominated the LNP’s election advertising.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout the Queensland campaign, Campbell Newman parroted the word “strong” at every opportunity, using it as the backbone of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-early-election-hinges-on-a-test-of-newmans-strength-35893">LNP’s election strategy</a>, to the point where it became a joke.</p>
<p>Newman became the sole focus of the campaign, and his destiny became tied to the LNP’s. Many voters had already decided that they didn’t like Newman. As a result of the strategy, it was harder for them to like the Queensland LNP much either. </p>
<p>Having gone into this 2015 election holding 73 out of 89 seats in parliament, the LNP is now on the brink of <a href="https://theconversation.com/queensland-voters-send-a-strong-message-to-eject-newman-37018">losing government</a>. Not the strong performance they had been hoping for.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wqRVkJt5WCw?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">The Queensland premier had a very strong key message for voters.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Federal fallout from the Queensland rout</h2>
<p>If the Queensland LNP’s federal Coalition counterparts weren’t aware of the trend against “Strong Leadership” before, they certainly are now.</p>
<p>Unnamed federal MPs are using the Queensland result to justify a push for Abbott to <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/abbotts-popularity-plunge-puts-heat-on-coalition-mps-20150201-1337kt.html">consult much more widely</a>. The days of “the captain” choosing his team’s direction in isolation are behind him: his teammates are demanding a say.</p>
<p>In the meantime, speculation of a federal leadership challenge shows <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/warren-entsch-plans-resolution-of-tony-abbott-leadership-drama/6066842">little sign of dying down</a>.</p>
<p>Abbott’s prepared remarks to the National Press Club suggest he believes that his ingrained political instincts led him to the top job. It’s only when questioned that the prime minister’s spontaneous remarks indicated that he might be realising that what he once saw as an asset has become a dangerous weakness.</p>
<p>Abbott must navigate this contradiction to ensure that he is not only a “strong leader”, but a leader with the strength to do what he keeps promising: <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-moves-to-head-off-critics-20150202-13466k.html">to listen and learn</a> before he acts.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>* Updated Tuesday 11pm AEDT: A state premier gone, a chief minister fighting off a coup, and a prime minister struggling to avoid the others’ fate. Australian politics is suddenly all about consultative…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/370982015-02-03T03:51:22Z2015-02-03T03:51:22ZNT spill has local roots pre-dating any Queensland-induced panic<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/70890/original/image-20150203-9187-wj7dxc.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Willem Westra van Holthe (right) looks set to lead the Northern Territory following a late night leadership spill.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Jack Bullen</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Late on Monday night, part of the Northern Territory’s Country Liberal government’s parliamentary wing <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/adam-giles-replaced-as-northern-territory-chief-minister/6064564">overthrew</a> the chief minister, Adam Giles. At 1am, somewhat surprisingly, Primary Industries Minister Willem Westra van Holthe emerged as the new chief minister.</p>
<p>However, on Tuesday morning Giles was refusing to formally resign his post, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-03/nt-chief-minister-giles-refuses-to-quit-after-leadership-coup/6065200">leading</a> to a delay in Westra van Holthe being sworn in.</p>
<p>At first glance, Giles’ ouster was a move that indicated panic caused by last weekend’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/labor-on-the-brink-of-a-shock-election-win-in-queensland-36983">electoral backlash</a> against the Queensland Liberal National government. The Giles government was unpopular in the electorate for its <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/politics/northern_territory_budget_deficit_7g5LehG6XkuAwCsJv1OIBO">budget cuts</a> and privatisation of the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-12/entsch-warning-on-tio-sale/5885138">Territory Insurance Office</a>. </p>
<p>In December 2014, Giles <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-12/tollner-misses-out-in-nt-ministerial-reshuffle/5964028">reshuffled his cabinet</a> – a move interpreted as shoring up his position and rewarding his supporters. That Giles was unable to bring his mate and former treasurer Dave Tollner back into cabinet revealed that his “arrogance” was severely limited. Tollner <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-22/nt-deputy-leader-dave-tollner-resigns-over-gay-slur-comments/5690686">resigned</a> in August 2014 because of a public homophobic rant against a government ministerial staffer.</p>
<p>It is easy to assume that the change of leader was an effort by the CLP MPs to avoid a similar electoral backlash to that suffered by their confreres in Queensland. That will be the national interpretation of events.</p>
<p>However, NT politics is intensely local. It is to local factors that we must turn to explain the result, if not the timing, of Giles’ overthrow. Queensland provided the spark but the tinder had been smouldering for some time.</p>
<p>We must remember that Giles <a href="https://theconversation.com/darwinian-politics-its-survival-of-the-fittest-for-the-top-job-in-the-territory-12810">overthrew</a> the previous chief minister, Terry Mills, only six months after Mills had <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-the-nt-election-outcome-a-shockwave-or-a-regional-ripple-9138">returned the CLP to government</a> following a decade of Labor rule. So the example was set.</p>
<p>The vital clue lies in the claim that Giles was arrogant and his office too powerful. This is not an unusual criticism of forceful leaders or their private offices – just <a href="http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/2199772/does-peta-credlin-wield-too-much-power/">look at Canberra</a> – but in the NT it has consequences. </p>
<p>For example, Giles and his office were <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2015/s4172864.htm">accused</a> of interfering in ministers’ portfolios. Normally that means nothing worse than bruised ministerial egos. However, most NT ministers are close to their departments, so significant sections of the public service were alienated both by this and by previous budget cuts. </p>
<p>This has electoral spin-offs. About <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/2f762f95845417aeca25706c00834efa/4e5ab048dbbe8203ca2570ec001971cb!OpenDocument">one-fifth</a> of the electorate are NT public servants. They constitute the most important electoral bloc in the NT. This factor is the genesis of the claims that Giles was arrogant.</p>
<p>One of the most prominent <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/chief-minister-adam-giles-returns-from-holidays-early-to-discuss-inquiry-into-former-police-commissioner-john-mcroberts-conduct/story-fnk0b1zt-1227194892958">recent criticisms</a> of Giles was that he went on holidays amid a crisis surrounding Police Commissioner <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-01-14/police-commissioner-john-mcroberts-resigns-formal-investigation/6017466">John McRoberts</a>. McRoberts was accused of interfering in a police investigation of a travel agent who had allegedly rorted a travel scheme that gives NT seniors a free airfare to southern cities every two years. He resigned his post last month.</p>
<p>The NT’s localism was on full display as the case evolved. The travel agent was supposedly in an informal intimate relationship with McRoberts. It was further illustrated when various statutory officers who would normally have conducted the investigation into McRoberts’ conduct had to rule themselves out because they either lived with one of the protagonists or were friends with them. </p>
<p>Media leaks from within the police force gave the saga continued prominence. McRoberts (a “southerner”) was unpopular within the police force, which was generally unhappy when Giles <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/police-commissioner-john-mcroberts-has-contract-renewed-for-five-years/story-fnk0b1zt-1226928420855">re-appointed him</a> in May 2014 for a further five-year term. The police wanted a local to be police commissioner, again reinforcing the NT’s localist politics.</p>
<p>By coincidence, both Westra van Holthe and his deputy, John Elferink, are former police officers. They were probably well – if informally – briefed about the ongoing McRoberts affair.</p>
<p>The national press may make something of Giles being Indigenous but this was not a factor. Giles is from the ACT and not an Indigenous Territorian. One of his first acts as chief minister was to <a href="http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/04/03/adam-giles-pie-in-the-sky-indigenous-jobs-plan/">abolish</a> the Indigenous Affairs portfolio. He <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2013/s3716120.htm">claimed</a> that because 30% of Northern Territorians are Indigenous, all ministers should be focused on Indigenous affairs. </p>
<p>Alison Anderson led a <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/alison-anderson-larisa-lee-and-francis-xavier-have-quit-the-country-liberal-party/story-fnk0b1zt-1226873268746">walk-out</a> of Aboriginal MPs from the CLP shortly after Giles became chief minister. Anderson and fellow Indigenous MP Larisa Lee have <a href="http://www.ntnews.com.au/news/northern-territory/alison-anderson-and-larisa-lee-rejoin-clp-amid-leadership-turmoil/story-fnk0b1zt-1227206076554">rejoined the CLP</a> in the wake of Giles’ removal. Giles had limited Aboriginal support and his overthrow was a Darwin event. Aboriginal interests were not a factor.</p>
<p>The NT’s localism has not yet finished playing out, with the Alice Springs branch of the CLP apparently outraged at Giles’ ouster.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/37098/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Late on Monday night, part of the Northern Territory’s Country Liberal government’s parliamentary wing overthrew the chief minister, Adam Giles. At 1am, somewhat surprisingly, Primary Industries Minister…Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/265242014-09-15T20:33:15Z2014-09-15T20:33:15ZIndigenous Australia’s rapid rise is shifting money and votes<p><em>Tony Abbott <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/2014-06-23/visit-north-east-arnhem-land">is spending this week in North-East Arnhem Land</a>, part of his <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/abbott-calls-for-new-era-of-engagement-with-indigenous-australia-20130810-2rony.html">long-held hope</a> “to be not just the Prime Minister but the Prime Minister for Aboriginal Affairs”. We asked our experts: what stories does the PM need to hear while he’s in the Top End?</em></p>
<p>A dramatic change has been underway in Australia for some decades – yet few people know about it, or understand its far-reaching impacts.</p>
<p>Quite simply, official measurements show the number of First Australians has skyrocketed to far outstrip growth in any other sub-section of the national population. From 1981 to 2011, the number of Indigenous Australians increased by around 185% (compiled from Australian Bureau Statistics <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3105.0.65.0012008?OpenDocument">here</a> and <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/allprimarymainfeatures/33970B13F1DF7F56CA257B3B00117AA2?opendocument">here</a>.)</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57303/original/mppt886h-1408972210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57303/original/mppt886h-1408972210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57303/original/mppt886h-1408972210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57303/original/mppt886h-1408972210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57303/original/mppt886h-1408972210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=417&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57303/original/mppt886h-1408972210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57303/original/mppt886h-1408972210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57303/original/mppt886h-1408972210.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=524&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Where Indigenous Australians live.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.aihw.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=60129543587">Healthy for Life Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services Report Card, 2013</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Contrary to the stereotypes, most of that population growth hasn’t been in the Top End or in remote areas. Instead, it has mainly occurred <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3238.0Media%20Release02001%20to%202026?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3238.0&issue=2001%20to%202026&num=&view=">in capital cities and the regions around these</a>, and especially in Sydney, Brisbane and their hinterlands. There is little doubt that trend will continue to <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3238.0Media%20Release02001%20to%202026?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3238.0&issue=2001%20to%202026&num=&view=">erode the share of Indigenous Australians living in remote parts</a> of the country. </p>
<p>So what’s driving all that growth? What are the consequences? And why might a new wave of Indigenous voters swing one way more than another?</p>
<h2>670,000 strong and rising</h2>
<p>An estimated <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3101.0Main+Features1Dec%202013?OpenDocument">669,881 Australians</a> were of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander origin in 2011. By 2026, that number is expected to <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3105.0.65.0012008?OpenDocument">exceed 900,000</a>.</p>
<p>The fast-growing Indigenous population is driven by a <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3238.0Media%20Release02001%20to%202026?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3238.0&issue=2001%20to%202026&num=&view=">number of factors</a>. These include higher levels of fertility than for other Australians and continued improvements in life expectancies. But there is more to it than just new Indigenous births outstripping deaths. The reasons for the rapid growth are more complex than that and are entwined with the historical oppression of the First Australians. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57331/original/qqyjxv68-1409017182.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57331/original/qqyjxv68-1409017182.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/57331/original/qqyjxv68-1409017182.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57331/original/qqyjxv68-1409017182.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57331/original/qqyjxv68-1409017182.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57331/original/qqyjxv68-1409017182.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=676&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57331/original/qqyjxv68-1409017182.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=676&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/57331/original/qqyjxv68-1409017182.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=676&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Australia’s Indigenous population is younger than the national average: in 2011, 35.8% of the Indigenous population was aged less than 15, compared with 18.3% in the non-Indigenous population.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.aihw.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=60129543587">Healthy for Life: Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services Report Card, 2013</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Census and other official data track who we are as a nation – including capturing Indigenous status. The Indigenous status question in the Census is based on self-identification. That means individuals can freely choose how they identify, and change this over time.</p>
<p>Although it is difficult to get a precise figure, much of the growth we have seen in the Indigenous population is from people who did not previously declare they were Indigenous doing so in later censuses.</p>
<p>As our society has begun to understand and seek to rectify past and present injustices, more people have become willing to declare they are Indigenous Australians. The land rights movement is one factor that has raised collective awareness of our Indigenous histories and cultures.</p>
<p>Estimates based on a survey conducted just four weeks after the 2011 Census suggested around 17% of Australians changed their Indigenous status. The majority of these switched from <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/2940.0">“non-Indigenous” or “not stated” to declaring themselves as Indigenous</a>.</p>
<p>Almost all of that affinity switching occurs in capital cities and their hinterlands, which is where <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/data?opendocument#from-banner=LN">most Indigenous Australians now live</a>. In every sense, the “new Indigenous” Australians living in our cities and suburbs are far removed from the most common media reporting of impoverished, remote First Australian communities.</p>
<p>Accentuating the trend, almost all (about 90%) of Indigenous Australians living in cities and married or in de facto relationships have a non-Indigenous partner. Offspring from these mixed partnerships are highly likely to be declared as Indigenous on the birth certificate, accelerating the growth of the Indigenous-identifying cohort.</p>
<p>The consequences of more Australians identifying as Indigenous are far-reaching.</p>
<h2>Shifting government funding</h2>
<p>With so many more people identifying as being of Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander descent, one unintended consequence is that it’s shifting funding away from parts of Australia that are home to some of the poorest Indigenous communities.</p>
<p>In total numbers, <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/3238.02001%20to%202026?OpenDocument">New South Wales and Queensland lead the way</a> for being home to the most Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders (208,476 and 188,954 respectively in 2011). That’s about three times more Indigenous Australians <em>each</em> than live in the Northern Territory. </p>
<p>But almost one in three people (30%) in the Northern Territory is Indigenous, still a far greater proportion than the national average of 3%. <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-northern-territory-17345">Around 80%-85% of the NT government’s revenue</a> comes from the Commonwealth, mostly as a general purpose grant from money raised by the Goods and Services Tax (GST). </p>
<p>States or territories with Indigenous population proportions above the Australian average receive a greater share of GST, for reasons explained in <a href="http://www.gstdistributionreview.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=reports/finaloctober2012/10chap10.htm">this GST Distribution Review for Treasury</a>.</p>
<p>In the Northern Territory in particular, the total population living in very remote communities with poor socio-economic conditions is growing, yet the Territory’s share of the national Indigenous population is rapidly diminishing. As a direct result, in 2014 about A$110 million a year was lost from the GST-derived grants to the Northern Territory.</p>
<p>The NT’s ability to tackle issues of Indigenous well-being is <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Products/02D95BFBCDD976FBCA257CC900143A5B?opendocument">diminishing with every percentage point shift</a> for the Indigenous-identifying population residing in urban Australia.</p>
<h2>Shifting allegiances?</h2>
<p>The remote Aboriginal communities of the Northern Territory have shifted their votes twice in recent years. In the 2012 Territory election, these bush communities reversed three decades of voting Labor and <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-the-nt-election-outcome-a-shockwave-or-a-regional-ripple-9138">voted for Country Liberal politicians (all but one, Indigenous)</a>.</p>
<p>Then in the last federal election, the Aboriginal bush vote returned to Labor and <a href="https://theconversation.com/lingiari-unique-but-still-a-mirror-of-the-broader-contest-15518">saved the Labor MHR for Lingiari</a>. So remote community Aborigines are becoming more instrumental in their voting, as well as less predictable.</p>
<p>But there’s also an emerging national trend to watch: more affluent urban Indigenous voters, who may be more open to voting conservative than before.</p>
<h2>Religion, race, youth and politics</h2>
<p>If you look closely, most of the nationally measurable improvements in Indigenous employment and education outcomes are concentrated in a few major cities and their surrounding areas.</p>
<p>This has tantalising implications. For example, before World War II most Catholics voted Labor, mostly for historical reasons or because of occupational class-based identification.</p>
<p>When <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillip_Lynch">Phillip Lynch</a> became the <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/catholic_connection_weighs_on_abbott_bJRmFz4xMshh9MGtqvhPfO">first Catholic minister</a> in Malcolm Fraser’s conservative government, it was seen as unique. Now, the Prime Minister and <a href="https://www.sydneycatholic.org/news/latest_news/2009/20091110_44.shtml">Treasurer</a>, along with <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-celebrates-a-religious-easter-eight-of-19-cabinet-members-are-catholic-20140419-36xn4.html">nearly half of the other cabinet members</a>, are Catholic. As individuals and families have moved up the social ladder, Catholicism has become no longer a marker of pro-Labor voting. </p>
<p>Will this happen with young, upwardly mobile, Indigenous-identifying residents of the major cities? Is former Labor president Warren Mundine, now the Prime Minister’s top Indigenous adviser, a harbinger of such socio-political change?</p>
<p>Perhaps Ken Wyatt – Australia’s first Indigenous member of the House of Representatives, who won the Western Australian seat of Hasluck for the Liberals – will be the Phillip Lynch of our times. If this hypothesis is correct, then all the old assumptions of Indigenous politics could be overturned. </p>
<p>So when he starts planning his next week living and working with an Indigenous community next year the Prime Minister could reconsider going bush – and instead end up staying in the marginal seat heartland of <a href="http://profile.id.com.au/wsroc/population?WebID=200">western Sydney</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong><em>Further reading in this <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/abbott-in-arnhem-land">Abbott in Arnhem Land</a> series:<br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/birthing-on-country-could-deliver-healthier-babies-and-communities-31180">Birthing on Country could deliver healthier babies and communities</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/welcome-to-my-country-seeing-the-true-beauty-of-life-in-bawaka-31378">Welcome to my Country: seeing the true beauty of life in Bawaka</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/pm-for-aboriginal-affairs-abbott-faces-his-biggest-hearing-test-31021">‘PM for Aboriginal Affairs’ Abbott faces his biggest hearing test</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-7-up-the-revealing-study-tracking-babies-to-adults-27312">Australia’s 7 Up: the revealing study tracking babies to adults</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/well-connected-indigenous-kids-keen-to-tap-new-ways-to-save-lives-30964">Well-connected Indigenous kids keen to tap new ways to save lives</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-crowded-homes-can-lead-to-empty-schools-in-the-bush-30971">How crowded homes can lead to empty schools in the bush</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/would-you-risk-losing-your-home-for-a-few-weeks-of-work-30911">Would you risk losing your home for a few weeks of work?</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/listen-to-your-elders-inviting-aboriginal-parents-back-to-school-31300">Listen to your elders: inviting Aboriginal parents back to school</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/indigenous-australians-need-a-licence-to-drive-but-also-to-work-31480">Indigenous Australians need a licence to drive, but also to work</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/keeping-indigenous-teens-in-school-by-reinventing-the-lessons-30960">Keeping Indigenous teens in school by reinventing the lessons</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-can-a-dna-test-reveal-if-youre-an-indigenous-australian-31767">Explainer: Can a DNA test reveal if you’re an Indigenous Australian?</a><br>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-indigenous-constitutional-recognition-means-31770">Explainer: what Indigenous constitutional recognition means</a></em></strong></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26524/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Taylor receives grant funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tony Abbott is spending this week in North-East Arnhem Land, part of his long-held hope “to be not just the Prime Minister but the Prime Minister for Aboriginal Affairs”. We asked our experts: what stories…Andrew Taylor, Principal Scientist, Charles Darwin UniversityRolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/260012014-04-29T01:51:29Z2014-04-29T01:51:29ZPUP’s recruits cause a stir – and ripples may spread beyond NT<p>The news that the three “rebel” Indigenous members of the NT Legislative Assembly had <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s3992999.htm">joined the Palmer United Party</a> (PUP) has created national interest as well as a considerable stir in the Northern Territory. </p>
<p>On The Conversation, Michelle Grattan <a href="https://theconversation.com/palmer-notches-another-win-with-three-nt-parliamentarians-joining-pup-25981">regarded</a> last weekend’s move as a win for party leader Clive Palmer. Other national media interpreted it in the vein of Palmer’s eccentric celebrity, a whim in his quest for publicity. The NT media has been cautious, seeing this as the latest manoeuvre of a supposedly erratic Alison Anderson, the leader of the three Indigenous MLAs who recently left the Country Liberal Party government.</p>
<p>Queensland Premier Campbell Newman (in a press conference with Prime Minister Tony Abbott) asked whether the three MLAs <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-28/pup-leader-clive-palmer-to-sue-queensland-premier-campbell-newm/5414574">had been offered inducements</a> of money or jobs, ignoring the fact that all three have jobs and will probably keep them at the next NT election. Newman’s comments missed the point. The MLAs approached Palmer, not the other way around. And they did this out of shrewd calculation.</p>
<p>When the three MLAs <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-03-27/disgruntled-backbenchers-walk-out-of-nt-parliament/5349244">left the Country Liberal government</a> they originally intended to form a party to focus upon properly representing Aboriginal interests. They discovered this was going to be difficult without access to money and administrative resources.</p>
<p>As a group they were not eligible for the extra resources that attach to being an official party (a party requires four MLAs in the NT Assembly to qualify). As such, their prospects of developing an electoral machine that could conceivably win seats, other than their own, were slight. They were threatened with marginalisation.</p>
<p>Speaking to local ABC radio, Anderson was candid about their reasons for joining the PUP. They needed financial support, access to a serious party platform and administrative assistance. The fact that the three MLAs are now going to have financial and administrative assistance has important ramifications for politics, not just in the NT but nationally.</p>
<h2>Impacts both regional and national</h2>
<p>This development will have three major impacts.</p>
<p>Firstly, it will solidify the Aboriginal vote in the NT.</p>
<p>Anderson and her confreres are being dismissed by the two major parties. After the <a href="http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2014-04-12/blain-byelection-country-liberals-claim-victory-in-blain-byelection-and-a-return-to-majority-governm/1295080">recent Blain by-election</a>, which the Country Liberal Party (CLP) won to retain a workable majority in the NT Assembly, NT Chief Minister Adam Giles has been insistent that Anderson is irrelevant. But this misses the point.</p>
<p>The Aboriginal interest is becoming a solid constituency. It began to desert Labor in the 2010 federal election and voted conservative for the first time in the 2012 NT election, sweeping the Country Liberals to <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-the-nt-election-outcome-a-shockwave-or-a-regional-ripple-9138">a surprise victory</a>. In the seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/ling/">Lingiari in the last federal election</a>, despite the national landslide to the Coalition, Aborigines returned their votes to Labor and enabled Labor’s Warren Snowdon to snatch a surprising victory.</p>
<p>The three new PUP members understand that for the better part of 25 years, successive NT governments have <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-northern-territory-17345">diverted Commonwealth general purpose grants</a> “earned” by Aboriginal disadvantage to pork-barrelling in Darwin. Aboriginal people are beginning to understand that and are becoming hostile to governments of both persuasions that ignore their interests.</p>
<p>Each government can, in future, expect Aboriginal electoral hostility. The PUP members will articulate the grievances of that constituency. This growing Aboriginal firmness about their rights and entitlements presents a considerable moral challenge, not just for the NT but for the nation.</p>
<p>Secondly, properly financed and organised, the PUP will not only win the three seats of its current MLAs but probably the two other “bush” seats held by the CLP.</p>
<p>So, barring an unlikely landslide to either of the major parties, the PUP will hold the balance of power after the next NT election in 2016. That will mean the PUP decides which of the major parties governs.</p>
<p>Finally, the expansion of the PUP to include an Aboriginal interest may potentially be a gamechanger at the national level.</p>
<p>After June, the PUP (plus a Australia Motoring Enthusiasts Party senator) will form part of the balance of power in the federal Senate. The NT’s Aboriginal MLAs have the opportunity indirectly to press Aboriginal interests in the Senate. This may have interesting consequences for a federal Coalition government seemingly committed to <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-04-26/mundine-talks-about-fears-for-indigenous-budget-next-month/5412894">cutting funding for many Indigenous programs</a>.</p>
<p>It is understandable that three disaffected Aboriginal MLAs joining the PUP may generally be regarded as some regional oddity. But this may have a potential impact on politics as great as the advent of the <a href="http://www.australian-democrats.org.au/founding.php">Democrats in the 1970s</a> and the <a href="http://greens.org.au/our-story">Greens in the 1980s</a>, albeit with a regional and Indigenous tinge.</p>
<p>We may be seeing the birth of a new third force in Australian politics. We should remember that at the next federal election, the PUP will have public electoral funding and be less dependent on Palmer to fund its future. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26001/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The news that the three “rebel” Indigenous members of the NT Legislative Assembly had joined the Palmer United Party (PUP) has created national interest as well as a considerable stir in the Northern Territory…Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.