tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/pacific-rim-27851/articlesPacific Rim – The Conversation2019-06-03T11:33:40Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1173332019-06-03T11:33:40Z2019-06-03T11:33:40ZGodzilla, King Kong: films are actually spot on in how to defeat kaijus – mathematician<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277398/original/file-20190531-69059-39jqyu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://mediapass.warnerbros.com/">Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>How do you get rid of a giant pest like Godzilla, King Kong, or any of <a href="https://www.bfi.org.uk/news-opinion/news-bfi/features/top-trumps-giants-japans-monster-movies">the other assorted kaiju</a> (Japanese for “strange beast”)? Evidence from films suggests that these monsters are highly destructive and tremendously difficult to kill. </p>
<p>To a mathematician, however, this situation is nothing more than a predator-prey interaction problem. By accurately simulating the properties of the species we want to eradicate, we can predict the required properties of the predators we would need to create. If we look to the <a href="https://www.imdb.com/list/ls027559043/">movies that made them famous</a>, we find two alternative strategies for dealing with an invasion of multiple monsters. We could build our own mechanical monsters, or create a kaiju of our own.</p>
<h2>Option one: deploy jaegers</h2>
<p>Giant offensive robots, known as jaegers (“hunter” in German) have the advantage of being completely under our control. In reality mass production of such weapons appears to be out of the question – not least because, as seen in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1663662/">Pacific Rim</a>, they are also often giant <a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/but-not-simpler/pacific-rim-physics-part-2-in-a-nuclear-explosion-bubble-at-the-bottom-of-the-ocean/?redirect=1">nuclear reactors on legs</a>, prohibitively expensive and <a href="http://www.zimbio.com/Beyond+the+Box+Office/articles/TzjPYG8JMuA/Pacific+Rim+How+Engineer+Sees+Jaeger">difficult to engineer</a>. But, assuming we solved these issues (and that secretive organisations had them ready when needed), jaegers are still only a viable solution if they are far deadlier than the kaijus. </p>
<p>Jaegers are typically dispatched alone to specific areas (for example, Manila, Hong Kong, Los Angeles and other locations around the pacific rim) so each mechanical fighter must be able to get rid <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0070122/">of multiple creatures</a> before falling. But given the small number of jaegers that the world would be able to produce which could stand up to the onslaught, we would only be able to defend a country little bigger than the UK using jaegers. So, unless we want to move the world’s population onto a few islands we need a more radical idea to defend the larger continents.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277376/original/file-20190531-69055-w8p0tw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277376/original/file-20190531-69055-w8p0tw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277376/original/file-20190531-69055-w8p0tw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277376/original/file-20190531-69055-w8p0tw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277376/original/file-20190531-69055-w8p0tw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277376/original/file-20190531-69055-w8p0tw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277376/original/file-20190531-69055-w8p0tw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277376/original/file-20190531-69055-w8p0tw.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=415&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jaegers are stationed in the north of Scotland and south of England in this simulation. Light shading represents high population density of kaijus and dark, low population density. Using jaegers, kaiju density can be reduced to practically zero everywhere within 24 hours.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Option two: create a kaiju</h2>
<p>In the words of fictional scientist Ishiro Serizawa (most recently seen in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3741700/">Godzilla: King of the Monsters</a>), we could allow nature to take its course and “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbnqQ1dF-KI">let them fight</a>”. Kaijus naturally prey on each other so we could genetically modify an animal to grow to a monstrous size (a good blast of radiation seems to help them grow in no time at all) and predate on them, as seen in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0058379/">numerous</a> <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0399102/?ref_=fn_tt_tt_7">entries</a> in the Godzilla canon.</p>
<p>Now, this may seem crazy. As soon as we release our own mutants we are unable to control them and, if <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0369610/">Jurassic World</a> tells us anything, it’s that even a highly trained predator has no master. So apart from the additional collateral damage that this would entail, we may be generating a bigger problem for ourselves by creating this new top predator species.</p>
<p>History is littered with failed examples of ad hoc eradication that have gone drastically wrong. Cane toads were <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-39348313">introduced into Australia</a> to eat beetle pests. Unfortunately, for several reasons, including having no natural predators, the toad population grew dramatically, and they <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/amphibians/c/cane-toad/">became the pest</a>. But this tactic can work if approached scientifically. There are successful examples of biological eradication through the introduction of natural predators. California’s citrus industry <a href="https://biocontrol.entomology.cornell.edu/success.php">was saved</a> from the cottony cushion scale by the careful introduction of the cardinal ladybird from Australia, for example.</p>
<p>Critically, the biggest benefit of allowing kaijus to control their own populations is that once we have generated the initial species, the monsters will naturally keep themselves in check. So, as long as we learn from past mistakes and carefully choose our predator’s properties, we need not worry about costs of managing the monsters. </p>
<p>To fight a fictional kaiju, the creature would have to be extremely fast, tough (but not aggressive to humans), and have a short life expectancy (so they die out when not needed). Unfortunately, even with such features, our simulations suggest that such predators would be unable to wipe the kaiju out completely. Instead the predator and prey would find a sustainable balance. Indeed, the best we can manage is to increase the speed of our monsters, meaning that they would be able to cover larger hunting grounds, and reduce the number of enemy kaiju.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277387/original/file-20190531-69079-ly1wct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277387/original/file-20190531-69079-ly1wct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/277387/original/file-20190531-69079-ly1wct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277387/original/file-20190531-69079-ly1wct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277387/original/file-20190531-69079-ly1wct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=228&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277387/original/file-20190531-69079-ly1wct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277387/original/file-20190531-69079-ly1wct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/277387/original/file-20190531-69079-ly1wct.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=286&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Dark shading shows low kaiju density, light shading shows high kaiju density. Our monster’s speed is increased left to right showing that kaiju can be corralled into fewer and fewer areas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Based on the above mathematical predictions, and considering the catalogue of creatures seen throughout kaiju movies, the best option would appear to be genetically modifying a species of moth to create a creature like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/29/movies/mothra-godzilla-king-of-the-monsters.html">Mothra</a>. Indeed, she has <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0058379/">won</a> <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0058544/">fights</a> against Godzilla <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0104352/">several times</a>. Specifically, she is extremely fast (reaching at least Mach 3), friendly to humans and, generally, a new Mothra is born only when one is killed (providing the population control).</p>
<p>Overall, mathematical modelling from these fictional parameters suggests that jaegers are the best strategy for small islands, while genetically modified kaiju work best to protect larger land masses. As a final point we note that Japan’s land area is very close to the cut-off size that determines if jaegers will be a successful strategy. This may underlie the reason why Japan is a world-renowned creator of kaiju movies. They act as simulations, like our mathematical model, predicting the outcomes of the ensuing battles. So, because of Japan’s uncertain fate, they produce films alternating between using monsters and jaegers to protect humans, to ascertain which solution is more successful. </p>
<p>However, both of our main strategies rely on the same idea: create a monster to catch a monster. So we leave with a final word of caution – as philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche wrote: “He who fights with monsters should be careful lest he thereby become a monster.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/117333/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Thomas Woolley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>How do you solve a problem like Godzilla? It’s not too tricky to work out if you are a mathematician…Thomas Woolley, Lecturer in Applied Mathematics, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/950282018-04-18T10:43:54Z2018-04-18T10:43:54ZWhat is the TPP and can the US get back in?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214853/original/file-20180414-46652-1qh5yl8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Is there still room for the U.S.? </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP Photo/Esteban Felix</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>President Donald Trump recently said he was open to returning to the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trans-pacific-partnership-piles-up-challenges-for-democracy-32815">Trans-Pacific Partnership</a>, but only if he could get a “substantially better” deal than his predecessor.</p>
<p>This apparent change of heart, <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/984631073865953280">announced via Twitter</a>, caught most observers off guard. The TPP was on track to become the <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/world-free-trade-areas-everything-you-need-to-know/">world’s largest free trade zone</a> by joining <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pacific-rim.asp">Pacific Rim</a> countries that collectively produce about <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32498715">40 percent of global economic output</a>. But Trump railed against the accord on the campaign trail, making it the ultimate bugbear for his brand of economic nationalism. In a widely anticipated move, he <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-the-trans-pacific-partnership-survive-after-trump-71821">withdrew the U.S.</a> from the TPP as one of his first presidential acts.</p>
<p>If Trump ever officially <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/04/13/president-trump-reconsiders-tpp.html">changed his tune</a> and tried to rejoin this trade pact, could he? </p>
<p>Like <a href="http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/383383-even-if-trump-wants-to-rejoin-tpp-that-ship-may-have-sailed">many observers</a>, I believe it would be tough to pull off. The other 11 countries would clearly prefer to have the U.S. in rather than out, but <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/13/news/economy/us-tpp-trade-trump/index.html">they are understandably reluctant</a> to throw open, for a third time, negotiations that took years to conclude. </p>
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<h2>Backstory</h2>
<p>In 2008, most of the major Pacific Rim economies – with the notable exception of China – <a href="http://as.ucpress.edu/content/ucpas/56/6/1017.full.pdf">began to consider</a> a massive free trade agreement for the region.</p>
<p>Formal TPP talks finally began <a href="https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/trans-pacific-partnership/round-1-melbourne">two years later</a>, when representatives of the U.S. and several other Pacific nations, such as Australia, Chile and Vietnam, started to hammer out the pact’s contentious details. </p>
<p>The deal, which took another <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/The_Trans-Pacific_Partnership_trade_deal:_An_overview">six years</a> to complete, later expanded to include more countries – including Japan, Canada and Mexico.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32498715">aim of the TPP</a> was to deepen economic ties between the dozen countries, slash tariffs on a broad range of goods and services, and better synchronize their policies and regulations. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/tpps-new-battle-lines-may-pose-threat-to-worlds-biggest-trade-deal-48802">substance of the agreement</a> was complex, and different countries negotiated different grace periods for its implementation. </p>
<p>TPP proponents <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Y58-EhUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">like me</a> based our <a href="https://theconversation.com/does-tpps-slow-death-mean-the-world-is-now-unsafe-for-trade-deals-64577">support</a> on <a href="http://econ.tu.ac.th/archan/Chayunt/Site/EE451_files/03Neoclassic.pdf">well-established economic theories</a>, which point to the benefits of barrier-free trade for all participating countries. These theories do not deny, of course, that some industries and workers can suffer significantly from open exchange. But they emphasize the overall advantages of freer trade in generating new jobs, cheaper products and more innovation.</p>
<p>Another argument in favor of the accord was <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-tpps-demise-threatens-us-national-security-and-pax-americana-67514">more geopolitical</a>, considering the TPP as a <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-tpp-about-jobs-or-china-42296">bulwark against China</a> – which was <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/23/opinions/killing-ttp-great-for-china-bergstrand-opinion/index.html">never slated to join</a>. </p>
<p>Despite its potential benefits, however, the emerging partnership soon became a lightning rod for U.S. opponents of open markets. </p>
<h2>Objections</h2>
<p>The critics lodged three distinct complaints. They expressed skepticism for the benefits of free trade itself, arguing that imports can <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-trump-right-that-the-tpp-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-cede-us-sovereignty-62085">destroy industries</a>, uproot communities and threaten national security. They also argued that international agreements <a href="https://theconversation.com/trans-pacific-partnership-piles-up-challenges-for-democracy-32815">undermine democracy</a> and objected to the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/11/politics/trade-deal-secrecy-tpp/index.html">secrecy of the negotiations</a> themselves. </p>
<p>Finally, opponents homed in on the pact’s specific details, especially those that were leaked or released early on. The most controversial issues proved to be indirectly related to trade policy.</p>
<p>TPP foes, for example, lambasted provisions regarding <a href="https://www.citizen.org/article/news-intellectual-property-table">intellectual property</a>, <a href="https://www.vox.com/cards/trans-pacific-partnership/will-the-tpp-protect-labor-rights">labor</a> and the <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/11/151105-TPP-free-trade-wildlife-trafficking-conservation-cites/">environment</a>. Some critics argued that these rules went too far, while others complained that they didn’t go far enough.</p>
<p>Many of them also <a href="https://theconversation.com/investor-rights-to-sue-governments-pose-real-dangers-40004">vehemently opposed</a> its <a href="https://theconversation.com/tpp-trade-pact-still-needs-improvements-to-protect-governments-from-foreign-suits-54078">investor-state dispute settlement provisions</a>, which would have let foreign businesses sue member governments for any violations that they claimed were hurting their interests.</p>
<p>Despite this opposition in the U.S and elsewhere, the 12 nations ultimately signed the TPP in February 2016 and began the process of domestic ratification. But Trump was elected later that year, and he backed out of the deal as soon as he entered the White House. </p>
<p>Most observers expected America’s exit to doom the agreement. Instead, the 11 remaining signatories <a href="https://theconversation.com/farmers-and-services-industry-the-winners-under-the-revised-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal-90619">forged a smaller pact</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-tpp/asia-pacific-nations-sign-sweeping-trade-deal-without-u-s-idUSKCN1GK0JM">among themselves</a>, renamed the <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/tpp-cptpp">Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership</a> and signed in March 2018. Lawmakers in the countries taking part are now considering ratification.</p>
<h2>Another flip-flop</h2>
<p>Besides, this bout of Trump’s apparent openness to join the TPP seemed to be short-lived. It may have ended as it started, on Twitter. The pact would have “too many contingencies and no way to get out if it doesn’t work,” Trump said in a tweet that mischaracterized South Korea as a member. (It isn’t.)</p>
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<p>Perhaps Trump realized that the U.S. would probably have to accept terms that are no better – and possibly worse – than those President Barack Obama agreed upon in 2016 when the TPP talks ended.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95028/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Hankla does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Trump, who withdrew the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership when he became president, briefly appeared to consider joining the trade accord again.Charles Hankla, Associate Professor of Political Science, Georgia State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/881212017-11-30T23:42:31Z2017-11-30T23:42:31ZThe Shape of Water leads Oscar nominations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197020/original/file-20171129-12027-ysgcfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">"The Shape of Water" film is a beautiful allegory about accepting differences. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Jean</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As a mathematician and film buff, I seek out movies featuring STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) or science fiction themes and <a href="https://theconversation.com/tiff-2017-movie-magic-from-math-and-science-83695">even reviewed a couple for <em>The Conversation Canada</em></a> in September during the Toronto International Film Festival. This year, it was the <em><a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5580390/">The Shape of Water</a></em> I had to see.</p>
<p>It is no surprise that <em>The Shape of Water</em> won Best Picture at the Oscars. Guillermo del Toro’s beautiful romance about choosing love over fear <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/oscars-2018-nominations-list-full-three-billboards-shape-of-water-lady-bird-dunkirk-get-out-darkest-a8173991.html">picked up 13 nominations</a> including best picture, best director and best leading actress for Sally Hawkins. </p>
<p><em>The Shape of Water</em> is a gorgeous and entertaining movie, but it also has a timely, allegorical message about our willingness to accept difference. </p>
<p>Three people, all from the margins, come together over their love for a humanoid sea creature and go to great lengths to save it. The humanoid creature is misunderstood — perhaps like the trio themselves in this early 1960s depiction. One is a person of colour, the other a gay man and the last one a “working class” woman rendered mute from traumatic childhood experiences. </p>
<p>In contrast, the scientists in the film only want to study the creature. The military and bureaucrats call the creature “The Asset” and want to weaponize it. </p>
<p>The night of the film’s premiere at TIFF, there was a palpable buzz in the air. I caught a glimpse of Octavia Spencer, who stars in the film, and edged my way as close as I could get to the front row for a good view of the cast before the film, introduced by director Guillermo del Toro. Toronto Mayor John Tory spoke before the film, and there was a sighting of Benedict Cumberbatch in the audience. </p>
<p>The film had recently <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/venice-film-festival-awards-announced-1037091">won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film festival</a>. Everyone there, including me, was ready for something special.</p>
<p>I wasn’t disappointed. <em>The Shape of Water</em> was a triumphant, modern-day fairytale, and one of the year’s best films. </p>
<h2>Not your usual monster flick</h2>
<p>With a filmography that includes <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0457430/"><em>Pan’s Labryinth</em></a>, <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1663662/"><em>Pacific Rim</em></a> and <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0167190/"><em>Hellboy</em></a>, it’s safe to say that monsters are director Guillermo del Toro’s speciality. The title of del Toro’s current Art Gallery of Ontario exhibit, <a href="https://ago.ca/exhibitions/guillermo-del-toro">At Home with Monsters</a>, is entirely appropriate. One of his persistent themes is finding the beauty and wonder in fantastical creatures, and his latest offering is no exception. </p>
<p><em>The Shape of Water</em> focuses on the unlikely love story between the amphibious humanoid creature and janitor Elisa Esposito, played by Sally Hawkins. She has no spoken dialogue, as she has lost her voice, save for one offbeat musical daydream. Hawkins’ breathtaking performance is remarkable in many ways and made more memorable by how effortlessly we connect with her character. Elisa speaks more with a single glance than others in the film say in minutes of conversation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/197054/original/file-20171130-12056-wtiykw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Strickland (Michael Shannon) interrogates Elisa (Sally Hawkins) and Zelda (Octavia Spencer) when an important government asset goes missing in ‘The Shape of Water.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Kerry Hayes)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The creature is played by Doug Jones, who may be familiar as Lt. Saru from the new TV series <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt5171438/">Star Trek: Discovery</a>. Like Hawkins, Jones has no dialogue in the movie, acting underneath a rubber and latex bodysuit. Michael Shannon, Octavia Spencer, Michael Stuhlbarg and Richard Jenkins round out a powerhouse supporting cast. </p>
<p>Much of the shooting for the movie took place in Toronto, the city del Toro calls home. Torontonians will recognize The Lakeview restaurant in the city’s west end. The scenes shot in the downtown Elgin Theatre garnered enthusiastic applause from the local audience.</p>
<h2>Shines a light</h2>
<p>In mathematical research, we create new patterns from nothingness. We shine a light and illuminate the darkness. Film can play a similar role, revealing to us a larger world with its own depth and mystery. </p>
<p><em>The Shape of Water</em> shines a light. Although it is set in the early 1960s, is a perfect commentary for our time. It asks us to reflect on the qualities that distinguish us; it asks us where we stand. </p>
<p>It brings to light the plight of our fellow residents when they are considered “outsiders,” whether that includes race, gender, sexual orientation or gender identity. </p>
<p>It asks us to think about the impact of new scientific discoveries on the environment: Science can be used to either respect or dominate the natural world. </p>
<p>As someone working in STEM and as a gay person, these are issues with which I have a strong connection. But like the characters’ reactions to the creature, everyone will take away something different from the film. </p>
<p>The film tells us that rather than fearing the unknown, we should embrace it. As <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4bIxkHKqT4">del Toro said</a> after the TIFF premiere: “It is important to choose love over fear because love is the answer.” </p>
<p>As I watched the final scenes between Elisa and the creature, I came to my own conclusion about the message of the <em>The Shape of Water</em>: <em>The universe is not only alive, it’s magical</em>.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">The trailer for The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight)</span></figcaption>
</figure><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88121/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anthony Bonato does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Shape of Water is an entertaining movie, but it also has a timely, allegorical message about the challenges we may face with new scientific discoveries, and our willingness to accept difference.Anthony Bonato, Professor of Mathematics, Toronto Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/716142017-02-08T18:57:59Z2017-02-08T18:57:59ZDroughts and flooding rains already more likely as climate change plays havoc with Pacific weather<p>Global warming has already increased the risk of major disruptions to Pacific rainfall, according to our <a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14368">research published today in Nature Communications</a>. The risk will continue to rise over coming decades, even if global warming during the 21st century is restricted to 2°C as agreed by the international community under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a>.</p>
<p>In recent times, major disruptions have occurred in 1997-98, when severe drought struck Papua New Guinea, Samoa and the Solomon Islands, and in 2010-11, when rainfall caused widespread flooding in eastern Australia and severe flooding in Samoa, and drought triggered a national emergency in Tuvalu.</p>
<p>These rainfall disruptions are primarily driven by the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/ENSO-what.shtml">El Niño/La Niña cycle</a>, a naturally occurring phenomenon centred on the tropical Pacific. This climate variability can profoundly change rainfall patterns and intensity over the Pacific Ocean from year to year. </p>
<p>Rainfall belts can move hundreds and sometimes thousands of kilometres from their normal positions. This has major impacts on safety, health, livelihoods and ecosystems as a result of severe weather, drought and floods.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n9/full/nclimate2743.html">Recent research</a> concluded that unabated growth in greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century will increase the frequency of such disruptions to Pacific rainfall. </p>
<p>But our new research shows even the greenhouse cuts we have agreed to may not be enough to stop the risk of rainfall disruption from growing as the century unfolds.</p>
<h2>Changing climate</h2>
<p>In our study we used a large number of climate models from around the world to compare Pacific rainfall disruptions before the Industrial Revolution, during recent history, and in the future to 2100. We considered different scenarios for the 21st century. </p>
<p><a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3">One scenario</a> is based on stringent mitigation in which strong and sustained cuts are made to global greenhouse gas emissions. This includes in some cases the extraction of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y">another scenario</a> emissions continue to grow, and remain very high throughout the 21st century. This high-emissions scenario results in global warming of 3.2-5.4°C by the end of the century (compared with the latter half of the 19th century).</p>
<p>The low-emissions scenario - despite the cuts in emissions - nevertheless results in 0.9-2.3°C of warming by the end of the century.</p>
<h2>Increasing risk</h2>
<p>Under the high-emissions scenario, the models project a 90% increase in the number of major Pacific rainfall disruptions by the early 21st century, and a 130% increase during the late 21st century, both relative to pre-industrial times. The latter means that major disruptions will tend to occur every four years on average, instead of every nine.</p>
<p>The increase in the frequency of rainfall disruption in the models arises from an increase in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events in some models, and an <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v502/n7472/abs/nature12580.html">increase in rainfall variability</a> during these events as a result of global warming. This boost occurs even if the character of the sea-surface temperature variability arising from El Niño and La Niña events is unchanged from pre-industrial times.</p>
<p>Although heavy emissions cuts lead to a smaller increase in rainfall disruption, unfortunately even this scenario does not prevent some increase. Under this scenario, the risk of rainfall disruption is projected to be 56% higher during the next three decades, and to remain at least that high for the rest of the 21st century.</p>
<h2>The risk has already increased</h2>
<p>While changes to the frequency of major changes in Pacific rainfall appear likely in the future, is it possible that humans have already increased the risk of major disruption?</p>
<p>It seems that we have: the frequency of major rainfall disruptions in the climate models had already increased by around 30% relative to pre-industrial times prior to the year 2000. </p>
<p>As the risk of major disruption to Pacific rainfall had already increased by the end of the 20th century, some of the disruption actually witnessed in the real world may have been partially due to the human release of greenhouse gases. The 1982-83 super El Niño event, for example, might have been less severe if global greenhouse emissions had not risen since the Industrial Revolution.</p>
<p>Most small developing island states in the Pacific have a limited capacity to cope with major floods and droughts. Unfortunately, these vulnerable nations could be exposed more often to these events in future, even if global warming is restricted to 2°C.</p>
<p>These impacts will add to the other impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, ocean acidification and increasing temperature extremes.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/71614/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>This research was supported by the National Environmental Science Programme and the Australian Climate Change Science Programme.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brad Murphy, Christine Chung, François Delage, and Hua Ye do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>New research shows that global warming has already begun to exacerbate extremes of rainfall in the Pacific region – with more to come.Scott Power, Head of Climate Research/International Development Manager, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyBrad Murphy, Manager, Climate Data Services, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyChristine Chung, Research Scientist, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyFrançois Delage, Assistant scientist, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyHua Ye, Climate IT Officer, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.