tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/parkland-shooting-66398/articlesParkland shooting – The Conversation2023-02-14T13:27:19Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1922922023-02-14T13:27:19Z2023-02-14T13:27:19Z‘Closure is a myth’: A school psychologist explains how to help students and teachers deal with grief after a school shooting<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509856/original/file-20230213-18-e7nzrr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C10%2C6689%2C4456&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Simply returning to a school where a shooting took place can be a struggle for many students.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/elementary-african-american-girl-with-mom-on-first-royalty-free-image/1152649948?phrase=fearful%20students&adppopup=true">fstop123 via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Whenever a school shooting takes place, such as the one that claimed the lives of three adults and three children at a Christian school in Nashville, Tennessee, on March 27, 2023, school officials often arrange for grief counseling services to be made available for whoever needs them. But what exactly do those services entail?</em></p>
<p><em>To answer that question, The Conversation reached out to Philip J. Lazarus, a school psychology professor at Florida International University who counseled students and educators affected by the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, which took place in Parkland, Florida, on Valentine’s Day, 2018.</em> </p>
<p><em>Below, Lazarus recounts some of the experiences he had as he provided grief counseling. He also offers insights on what students and educators need as the nation confronts record levels of shootings with <a href="https://theconversation.com/five-years-after-parkland-school-shootings-havent-stopped-and-kill-more-people-198224">higher and higher death tolls</a>.</em></p>
<h2>Shattered sense of security</h2>
<p>A few days after Parkland, a seventh grade boy at a nearby school told me his plan for how to make schools safer.</p>
<p>“We need to have a conveyor belt to check all kids for guns, then we need to have bulletproof windows on the outside, then we need to have bulletproof closets that we can all run into in case a shooter enters the building,” the boy told me at the time. “We need to put up a 10-foot barbed-wire fence outside the playground, and more police.”</p>
<p>I wondered if this is the future we as a society want. Five years later, more elements of that future are now here.</p>
<p>In Newport News, Virginia, for example, officials decided to install 90 walk-through <a href="https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/local/mycity/newport-news/newport-news-school-board-update-richneck-elementary-shooting/291-649e59eb-8cf4-4352-bb8b-0d1a0128e3e7#:%7E:text=%E2%80%94%20All%20schools%20in%20Newport%20News,school%20officials%20announced%20Thursday%20afternoon.">metal detectors in schools across the district</a>. The measure comes in response to one of the most shocking cases of a school shooting – one in which a first grader reportedly shot and wounded his teacher, Abigail Zwerner, at Richneck Elementary School in Newport News on Jan. 6, 2023.</p>
<p>In Texas, tens of millions of dollars were spent on <a href="https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/texas/50-million-grant-program-ballistic-shields-texas-schools/285-d372fc47-1559-462f-b04b-3858fa468f37">providing schools with ballistic shields</a> for school police officers. Some schools have installed <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/07/12/2478202/0/en/National-Safety-Shelters-Partners-With-School-District-to-Improve-School-Security-With-Safety-Pods.html">bulletproof “safety pods”</a> to protect students against active shooters.</p>
<p>When tragedies like the ones in Parkland; Newport News; Uvalde, Texas; and Nashville take place, they don’t affect just the school itself – they affect surrounding schools as well. Which is why, when I returned a few days after the Parkland shooting from the National Association of School Psychologists convention in Chicago to Broward County, where I live and where the Parkland shooting took place, I connected with Frank Zenere, one of my former students, an adjunct lecturer at Florida International University and the crisis coordinator for Miami-Dade County Public Schools, as well as a team from Nova Southeastern University and another team of school psychologists from Volusia County to provide psychological intervention. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.nasponline.org/books-and-products/products/books/titles/school-crisis-the-prepare-model-2nd-edition">These interventions</a> included debriefing students, which means students talking about their reactions to the horrific event, short-term individual and group counseling, and consultation with school leaders and parents about how to handle children’s grief and how best to open reopen schools.</p>
<h2>Fears and uncertainty</h2>
<p>One thing all school-based mental health providers learn in crisis intervention is that all students have a story to tell, <a href="https://www.perlego.com/book/1554947/creating-safe-and-supportive-schools-and-fostering-students-mental-health-pdf?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&campaignid=15825112969&adgroupid=132780878835&gclid=CjwKCAiA3KefBhByEiwAi2LDHNSDG_QcZfbiJ63pweSIasQJ7H1YnMPpXNdarXVMFkKuc4CUspkLjBoCsDYQAvD_BwE">even if they have problems articulating their thoughts</a>.</p>
<p>The job of the mental health provider is to listen. However, listening is often not enough. After Parkland, some students in the surrounding area were afraid to enter their own schools. A few were concerned that they would be attacked by a copycat killer. Some students emotionally broke down. </p>
<p>One sixth grade boy I met at a nearby charter school was afraid to go into his school building, and I was contacted by the principal to help. The boy just stood outside. So, I walked up to him and started talking and asked him why he did not walk home if he was so afraid. He told me that his parents drove him to this charter school, and he lived more than 10 miles away. I asked him if I walked right next to him and did not leave his side if he would be willing to go inside the building. He agreed. We talked for about 30 minutes. He said, “My body does not feel well. It doesn’t feel right, it feels crazy inside, and I cannot describe it.” </p>
<p>I told him that his feelings were normal. Then he was asked to rate his level of well-being from 1 to 10 from when he arrived at school to now, with 1 meaning feeling great to 10 meaning feeling terribly scared and anxious. He responded that when he entered my temporary office in the school, it was an 11, and now after about 30 minutes of recounting his experiences, reactions and feelings with me, he was at a 5 or 6. </p>
<p>He told me that he was taking yoga classes, and I worked with that to his advantage. I taught him how to imagine yoga music reverberating through his body to help him calm down. I taught him how he could make the music go faster or slower, louder or softer, and how to regulate his breathing. This provided him a sense of control over his internal feelings. Through a series of other techniques, such as using deep breathing, he learned how to enter a highly relaxed state. He reported by the end of our 90-minute meeting that he was now a 2. </p>
<p>I asked him to practice what he had learned at least three times before he came to school the following day. The next day he saw me and rushed up and said, “I’m a 1.”</p>
<h2>Normalcy is elusive</h2>
<p>Sadly, as my colleague Frank told me, for many others the interventions will not be as easy or the responses as quick. </p>
<p>For example, young people directly affected by a tragedy, especially those in classrooms where students were killed, will require deep understanding, empathy and guidance from family, friends, teachers, religious leaders and mental health professionals as they struggle to cope. Some may require <a href="https://grievingstudents.org">years of therapy</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.worldcat.org/title/10377761">Closure is a myth</a>. The trauma and grief may never go away. Yet young people can learn lessons from the past and move forward with help from their friends, families, faith, communities and mental health providers. For all those affected, their lives will never be the same, but with care and understanding from others and by focusing on the future, they can recover and thrive.</p>
<p><em>This article was updated to reflect a shooting that took place in Nashville, Tennessee, on March 27, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/192292/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip J. Lazarus does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Students may need a listening ear and reassurance in the aftermath of having witnessed a school shooting.Philip J. Lazarus, Associate Professor, Counseling, Recreation and School Psychology, Florida International UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1850092022-06-23T11:50:16Z2022-06-23T11:50:16ZRed flag laws saved 7,300 Americans from gun deaths in 2020 alone – and could have saved 11,400 more<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/470384/original/file-20220622-22-atgzvi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4888%2C3261&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Laws restricting some people's ability to own or purchase firearms are being discussed as a way to curb gun violence in the U.S.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BuffaloSupermarketShootingGunLaws/f1b601a1d3394fb98e7847c8856b6076/photo">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Lawmakers in Congress are poised to pass the <a href="https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/red-flag-laws-Uvalde-shooting-Senate-gun-bill-vote-17239009.php">first gun control legislation</a> in three decades. Among the elements in that legislation is support for states to pass what are called “<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/14/what-is-a-red-flag-law/">red flag laws</a>.”</p>
<p>These laws, already in place in many states, let police take guns from people deemed a threat to themselves or others. The laws also seek to bar those people from buying guns.</p>
<p>The proposal has emerged again in the wake of the mass school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, as well as others in recent weeks. The <a href="https://www.murphy.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/bipartisan_safer_communities_act_text.pdf">current draft of a Senate bill</a> would make <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/21/senate-gun-deal/">$750 million in federal funding</a> available to <a href="https://www.route-fifty.com/public-safety/2022/06/senates-bipartisan-gun-deal-would-provide-funding-all-states/368450/">help states administer a red flag law</a> if they have or pass one – though states without them <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/06/21/senate-gun-deal/">could also qualify for the money</a> by adopting other policies unrelated to guns.</p>
<p>The contrast between states that have them and states that don’t provides a useful opportunity for a scholar like <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=3y3BVcEAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">me</a>, who uses data to help understand politics, to examine whether they may help reduce gun-related deaths.</p>
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<h2>Red flag laws spread after Parkland shooting</h2>
<p>The nation’s first red flag law was <a href="https://www.ctpublic.org/news/2022-06-01/connecticuts-new-red-flag-law-provisions-go-into-effect">passed in Connecticut in 1999</a>, allowing police – but not medical professionals or family members –to ask a judge for permission to seize the guns of a person believed to be imminently dangerous to themselves or others. In the subsequent two decades, a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/07/us/gun-extreme-risk-protection-orders/index.html">handful of other states</a> passed similar laws.</p>
<p>In 2018, the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, sparked a new crop of them. That year, Florida passed a red flag law, and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/07/us/gun-extreme-risk-protection-orders/index.html">many other states</a> followed suit. By the end of 2021, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/which-states-have-red-flag-gun-laws-place-1710463">19 states and the District of Columbia</a> had done so. Not every state is on board: In 2020, <a href="https://oksenate.gov/press-releases/nations-first-anti-red-flag-law-now-books">Oklahoma banned its counties and municipalities</a> from passing red-flag laws.</p>
<p>While differing slightly from state to state where they do exist, these laws generally allow a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/21/us/red-flag-laws-explainer-trnd/">judge to declare a person legally ineligible</a> to own or purchase guns <a href="https://www.criminaldefenselawyer.com/resources/risk-protection-orders-a-guide-to-floridas-red-flag-law.html">for a maximum of one year</a>. The request has to come from the police or, in some states, a doctor or relative. The person can usually challenge the ruling in court, and police can seek extensions of the decision, which is often called a “risk protection order,” if they deem it appropriate.</p>
<p>In Florida, where the request must come from police, an <a href="https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2019/sep/03/dave-aronberg/explaining-how-floridas-red-flag-gun-law-works/">average of five of these orders are granted</a> every day.</p>
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<h2>Do they reduce gun deaths?</h2>
<p>Research has shown that <a href="https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/yale-duke-uconn-researchers-gun-seizure-law-prevents-suicides">Connecticut’s red flag law reduced suicides</a>, which involve firearms <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7119e1.htm">more than half the time</a>. </p>
<p>To determine if red flag laws reduce gun deaths overall, I examined <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/firearm.htm">states’ firearm death rates</a>, in light of whether they had a red flag law or not, in each of three years – 2018, 2019 and 2020. </p>
<p>The seven states with the lowest firearm death rates for 2020 all had red flag laws. And 14 of the 15 states with the highest firearm death rates that year did not have a red flag law. The exception was New Mexico, where a red flag law <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/politics/new-mexico-governor-red-flag-gun-law/index.html">took effect halfway through the year</a>.</p>
<p>On average, states with red flag laws in 2019 and 2020 had significantly lower firearm death rates than states without them. In 2018, the average death rates for both groups were closer, but states with red flag laws still had a meaningfully lower rate.</p>
<p>Then I imagined those average firearm death rates applied to the whole country – if the whole nation had a red flag law, or there were none at all. In 2020, if there were no red flag laws, I estimate that 52,530 Americans would have died in gun deaths. The number actually recorded <a href="https://hub.jhu.edu/2022/05/02/highest-number-of-gun-related-deaths-in-2020-report/">was 45,222</a>, indicating red flag laws saved 7,308 American lives that year.</p>
<p>If red flag laws had existed either state by state or at the federal level, my estimate is that 33,780 people would have died by firearms in 2020 – saving an additional 11,442 lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/185009/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John A. Tures does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>States with red flag laws saw fewer firearm deaths, on average, than states without them.John A. Tures, Professor of Political Science, LaGrange CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1839652022-06-02T12:16:00Z2022-06-02T12:16:00Z5 ways to reduce school shootings<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/466681/original/file-20220601-48537-yx23wp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C12%2C2032%2C1345&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Restrictive gun laws bring down the murder rate.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-attend-a-candlelight-vigil-in-uvalde-texas-united-news-photo/1241011278?adppopup=true">Anadolu Agency / Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>After the school shooting in Parkland, Florida, in 2018, psychology professor <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=70eLrWwAAAAJ">Paul Boxer</a> and his colleagues reviewed research to see what could be learned from what they refer to as the “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ab.21766">science of violence prevention</a>.” In the wake of the May 24, 2022, massacre at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, Boxer has revisited that research anew – and other research conducted since then – for insights on what can be done to reduce the risk of school shootings in the future. Here he offers five policy changes – based on his findings – that can be implemented to achieve that end.</em></p>
<h2>1. Dramatically limit access to guns</h2>
<p>Gun regulation matters.</p>
<p>When my colleagues and I looked at gun regulations on a state-by-state basis, we found that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/pubmed/fdab047">more restrictive gun laws are associated with lower rates of homicides by guns</a>. </p>
<p>This relation held even after we took demographic, economic and educational factors into account. Others researchers have found that “permissive firearm laws and higher rates of gun ownership” were linked with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/15388220.2021.2018332">higher rates of school shootings</a>. </p>
<p>What these results essentially mean is that in states where it is more difficult to acquire a gun, fewer people are killed by guns. Examples of these restrictions are raising the age for legal purchase, imposing lengthy waiting periods before access, requiring meaningful background checks, and more. These and similar measures – for example, eliminating access for individuals at a high risk of committing violence, such as the perpetrators of domestic violence – all move toward making it significantly harder to access guns, which would reduce gun violence substantially.</p>
<p>Placing meaningful restrictions or outright bans on firearm equipment associated with greater lethality, such as assault-style rifles and high-capacity magazines, should also lower the number of people being killed by firearms. Research <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ypmed.2021.106599">already has shown</a> that greater access to guns is associated with higher numbers of gun deaths.</p>
<h2>2. Use more violence risk assessments in schools</h2>
<p>In the years since the Columbine shooting in 1999, researchers and federal law enforcement agencies have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/pits.1007">studied school shootings</a> and developed <a href="https://doi.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Ftam0000038">risk assessments</a> to gauge the likelihood of actual violence by a young person identified as a possible risk.</p>
<p>These assessments are conducted by professionals that include police officers, school officials and teachers. They also involve mental health professionals, such as school counselors and psychologists. Together, these professionals all consult with one another to determine a young person’s risk for violence.</p>
<p>These teams may not be able to prevent every possible incident. Still, this sort of approach is critical to improving the process of identifying and stopping potential shooters overall. Guidance on how to use these assessments is <a href="https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/making-prevention-a-reality.pdf/view">freely available</a> and based in extensive applied research. For example, in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000038">one 2015 study</a>, the <a href="https://dev.curry.virginia.edu/faculty-research/centers-labs-projects/research-labs/youth-violence-project/virginia-student-threat">Virginia Student Threat Assessment Guidelines</a> – a set of guidelines for the investigation of a reported threat, thorough assessment of the individual making the threat, and preventive or protective measures to be taken in response – were shown to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000038">reduce rates of student aggression</a>. They were also shown to lower out-of-school suspension rates while improving teacher and student perceptions of safety. </p>
<h2>3. Expand evidence-based strategies to reduce violent behavior</h2>
<p>To help reduce the number of youths who grow up to become violent, governmental agencies could increase the availability and use of evidence-based interventions in schools. </p>
<p>Aggressive and violent behavior has been shown by research to emerge from a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8624.2008.01233.x">mix of personal and environmental risk factors</a>. The factors include impulsivity, callousness, exposure to violence and victimization. </p>
<p>In light of this research, effective approaches were developed to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10464-013-9576-4">prevent</a> aggression by teaching students to problem-solve for better responses to peer conflict. They also teach students to think carefully about others’ motivations when they feel provoked.</p>
<p>Programs shown to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006X.72.4.571">reduce</a> aggressive behavior typically train youths who already have exhibited some aggression on new and better coping skills for managing stress and anger. And for youths who have become seriously violent, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-006X.73.3.445">treatments</a> teach new, constructive behavioral and communication skills to youths and their caregivers. The treatments also help young people develop better relationships with family members and school personnel.</p>
<h2>4. Make school buildings safer</h2>
<p>The Robb Elementary School shooter entered the school building through a door that reportedly <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/05/31/uvalde-teacher-door-closed/">malfunctioned</a>. This highlights the absolute importance for schools to take and maintain physical security measures.</p>
<p>In the wake of school shootings, schools often turn to solutions such as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/30/1102035766/u-s-schools-increase-security-after-uvalde-shooting-texas">upgraded camera surveillance or increased law enforcement</a>. </p>
<p>These measures can have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2018.06.008">mixed effects</a> on students’ perceptions of safety and support – cameras posted outside appear to increase felt safety, whereas cameras posted inside seem to promote unease. </p>
<p>Increased law enforcement presence might make <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2372966X.2020.1844547">teachers feel safer</a> in school. But it also might <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.12512">criminalize student misbehavior</a> without <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/2372966X.2020.1846458">actually making schools safer</a>.</p>
<p>Still, there are number of ways for schools to <a href="https://doi.org/10.14738/assrj.88.10614">improve physical security</a> without increasing student anxiety or needlessly deploying law enforcement. For example, in one large study, students were less likely to skip school because of safety concerns when metal detectors were <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0895904816673735">used at school entry points</a>. In that study, those metal detectors also reduced the likelihood of weapons being brought into schools.</p>
<h2>5. Reduce exposure to violence through media and social media</h2>
<p>Entertainment media and social media are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228613.013.1">saturated with violent images</a> of physical assaults, gun violence and gore. Exposure to and participation in virtual violence might not lead to aggressive behavior for all children and adolescents. But watching violent programs and playing violent video games can lead to increased <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ab.21655">hostility</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/ab.21427">aggressive feelings</a>, emotional <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0021711">desensitization to violence</a> and ultimately <a href="https://doi.org/10.1001/archpedi.160.4.348">aggressive behavior</a>. These effects can potentially be lessened by reducing the amount of screen violence to which children and adolescents are exposed over time, particularly early in development.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183965/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Boxer receives funding from the Centers for Disease Control. </span></em></p>Risk assessments and rigid gun laws are among the tools that can help prevent school massacres, a specialist in youth aggression says.Paul Boxer, Professor of Psychology, Rutgers University - NewarkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1838802022-05-26T01:17:24Z2022-05-26T01:17:24ZHow the NRA evolved from backing a 1934 ban on machine guns to blocking nearly all firearm restrictions today<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465367/original/file-20220525-20-qb3qlr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C65%2C3886%2C2323&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">NRA conventiongoers, like these at the gun group's 2018 big meeting, browse firearms exhibits.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/people-browse-firearms-in-an-exhibit-hall-at-the-nras-news-photo/955072294">Loren Elliott/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The mass shootings at a <a href="https://apnews.com/hub/buffalo-supermarket-shooting">Buffalo, New York, supermarket</a> and an <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-texas-shootings-gun-violence-0fc46ce400c3fed9081ee5c033d2aba5">elementary school in Uvalde, Texas</a>, just 10 days apart, are stirring the now-familiar national debate over guns seen after the tragic 2012 and 2018 school shootings in <a href="https://www.npr.org/tags/167321900/sandy-hook-elementary-school">Newtown, Connecticut</a>, and <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/2/15/17017342/parkland-florida-school-mass-shooting">Parkland, Florida</a>.</p>
<p>Inevitably, if also understandably, many Americans are blaming the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/19/17027250/march-protests-guns-florida-shooting">National Rifle Association</a> for thwarting <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByoyLoSA8QKpUDU4NU5wQ2dTTlE/view">stronger gun laws</a> that might have prevented these two recent tragedies and many others. And despite the proximity in time and location to the Texas shooting, the NRA is proceeding with its plans to hold its <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/25/politics/national-rifle-association-annual-meeting-what-to-know/index.html">annual convention in Houston</a> on May 27-29, 2022. The featured speakers include former President Donald Trump and <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/ted-cruz-lawmakers-money-gun-rights-groups">Sen. Ted Cruz</a>, a Texas Republican.</p>
<p>After spending decades researching and writing about <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ztJj-LwAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra">how and why the NRA came to hold such sway</a> over <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/guns-across-america-9780190228583?cc=us&lang=en">national gun policies</a>, I’ve seen this narrative take unexpected turns in the last few years that raise new questions about the organization’s reputation for invincibility.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=338&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207703/original/file-20180223-108122-1kqtygz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People delivered boxes of petitions calling for stronger gun control rules to former Florida Gov. Rick Scott after the 2018 mass shooting in Parkland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/School-Shooting-Florida/84fa0b8eb9524087bc70cd6ec95e2273/10/0">AP Photo/Gerald Herbert</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Three phases</h2>
<p>The NRA’s more than 150-year history spans three distinct eras.</p>
<p><a href="http://time.com/4106381/nra-1871-history/">At first</a> the group was mainly concerned with marksmanship. It later played a relatively constructive role regarding safety-minded gun ownership restrictions before turning into a rigid politicized force.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://ftwny.com/the-nra/">NRA was formed in 1871</a> by two <a href="http://time.com/4106381/nra-1871-history/">Civil War veterans</a> from Northern states who had witnessed the typical soldier’s inability to handle guns. </p>
<p>The organization initially leaned on government support, which included subsidies for shooting matches and <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/10/10/556578593/the-nra-wasnt-always-against-gun-restrictions">surplus weaponry</a>. These freebies, which lasted until the 1970s, gave gun enthusiasts a powerful incentive to join the NRA.</p>
<p>The NRA played a role in fledgling political efforts to formulate state and national gun policy in the 1920s and 1930s after <a href="https://www.npr.org/2016/06/30/484215890/prohibition-era-gang-violence-spurred-congress-to-pass-first-gun-law">Prohibition-era liquor trafficking</a> stoked gang warfare. It backed measures like requiring a permit to carry a gun and even a gun purchase waiting period. </p>
<p>And the NRA helped shape the <a href="https://www.atf.gov/rules-and-regulations/national-firearms-act">National Firearms Act of 1934</a>, with two of its leaders testifying before Congress at length regarding this landmark legislation. They supported, if grudgingly, its main provisions, such as <a href="http://time.com/4431356/nra-gun-control-history/">restricting gangster weapons</a>, which included a national registry for machine guns and sawed-off shotguns and taxing them heavily. But they opposed handgun registration, which was stripped out of the nation’s first significant national gun law.</p>
<p>Decades later, in the legislative battle held in the aftermath of <a href="http://time.com/4431356/nra-gun-control-history/">President John F. Kennedy’s assassination</a> and amid rising concerns about crime, the NRA opposed another national registry provision that would have applied to all firearms. Congress ultimately stripped it from the <a href="https://archive.org/stream/GunControlActOf1968PubLaw9061882StatPg1213/Gun_Control_Act_of_1968_Pub_Law_90-618_82_Stat_Pg_1213_djvu.txt">Gun Control Act of 1968</a>. </p>
<p>Throughout this period, however, the NRA remained primarily focused on marksmanship, hunting and other recreational activities, although it did continue to voice opposition to new gun laws, especially to its membership.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7460CZcGJRY?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">NPR’s Ron Elving recounts the NRA’s history.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A sharp right turn</h2>
<p>By the mid-1970s, a dissident group within the NRA believed that the organization was losing the national debate over guns by being too defensive and not political enough. The dispute erupted at the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2017/10/10/556578593/the-nra-wasnt-always-against-gun-restrictions">NRA’s 1977 annual convention</a>, where the <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-teen-killer-who-radicalized-the-nra">dissidents deposed the old guard</a>.</p>
<p>From this point forward, the NRA became ever more political and strident in its defense of so-called “<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2013/02/26/172882077/loaded-words-how-language-shapes-the-gun-debate">gun rights</a>,” which it increasingly defined as nearly absolute under the <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-the-2nd-amendment-and-how-does-it-impact-us-gun-control-61068">Second Amendment</a>.</p>
<p>One sign of how much the NRA had changed: The <a href="https://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google.com/&httpsredir=1&article=4825&context=lcp">Second Amendment</a> <a href="https://scholarship.law.stjohns.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1311&context=lawreview">right to bear arms</a> never came up in the 166 pages of congressional testimony regarding the 1934 gun law. Today, the <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/12/16418524/us-gun-policy-nra">organization treats those words as its mantra</a>, constantly citing them. </p>
<p>And until the mid-1970s, the NRA supported waiting periods for handgun purchases. Since then, however, it has opposed them. It fought vehemently against the ultimately successful enactment of a <a href="http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/brady-bill-signed-into-law">five-business-day waiting period and background checks</a> for handgun purchases in 1993.</p>
<p>The NRA’s influence hit a zenith during <a href="https://www.thoughtco.com/gun-rights-under-president-george-w-bush-721332">George W. Bush’s gun-friendly presidency</a>, which embraced the group’s positions. Among other things, his administration let the ban on assault weapons expire, and it supported the NRA’s top legislative priority: enactment in 2005 of special liability protections for the gun industry, the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/207702/original/file-20180223-108119-4doww7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People attending the National Rifle Association Leadership Forum in 2017 paid rapt attention to President Donald Trump’s address.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Trump-NRA/bfef149b76bb497b95c4b293a347f7fa/60/0">AP Photo/Evan Vucci</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Having a White House ally isn’t everything</h2>
<p>Despite past successes, the NRA has suffered from a series of mostly self-inflicted blows that have precipitated <a href="http://hnn.us/article/172782">an existential crisis</a> for the organization.</p>
<p>Most significantly, an investigation by the <a href="https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/judge-blocks-nys-bid-to-shutter-nra-but-lawsuit-continues-2/3580404/">New York Attorney General</a>, filed in 2020, has revealed <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/08/nra-is-doomed-it-has-only-itself-blame/">extensive allegations</a> of rampant cronyism, corruption, sweetheart deals and fraud. Partly as a result of these revelations, NRA membership has apparently declined to roughly <a href="https://www.witf.org/2022/02/09/the-national-rifle-association-membership-is-dropping-according-to-internal-documents/">4.5 million</a>, down from a high of <a href="https://www.nraila.org/articles/20170707/%20remarkable-findidue%20dng-from-pew-survey">about 5 million</a>. </p>
<p>Despite this trend, however, the grassroots gun community is no less committed to its agenda of opposition to new gun laws. Indeed, the Pew Research Center’s findings in 2017 suggested that about <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/06/22/key-takeaways-on-americans-views-of-guns-and-gun-ownership/">14 million people identify with the group</a>. By any measure, that’s a small minority out of nearly <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/01/28/turnout-soared-in-2020-as-nearly-two-thirds-of-eligible-u-s-voters-cast-ballots-for-president/">260 million U.S. voters</a>. </p>
<p>But support for gun rights has become a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2020-2007">litmus test for Republican conservativism</a> and is baked into a major political party’s agenda. This laserlike focus on gun issues continues to enhance the NRA’s influence even when the <a href="https://theconversation.com/financial-woes-are-at-the-heart-of-the-nras-tumult-116146">organization faces turmoil</a>. This means that the protection and advancement of gun rights are propelled by the broader conservative movement, so that the NRA no longer needs to carry the ball by itself. </p>
<p>Like Bush, <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/nra-donald-trump-endorsement-backlash-223442">Trump maintained a cozy relationship</a> with the NRA. It was among his 2016 presidential bid’s most enthusiastic backers, contributing <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/summary.php?id=d000000082">US$31 million to his presidential campaign</a>. </p>
<p>When Trump directed the Justice Department to draft a rule banning bump stocks, and indicated his belated support for improving background checks for gun purchases after the Parkland shooting, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/trump-pushes-for-tighter-gun-rules-backed-by-nra-after-florida-shooting.html">he was sticking with NRA-approved positions</a>. He also supported <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/trump-defends-arming-teachers-protect-students-sicko-shooter-n850216">arming teachers</a>, another NRA proposal.</p>
<p>Only one sliver of light emerged between the Trump administration and the NRA: his apparent willingness to consider <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-guns-white-house/age-limit-for-buying-ar-15-assault-rifle-on-the-table-white-house-idUSKCN1G42SR">raising the minimum age to buy assault weapons</a> from 18 to 21 – which has not happened. In 2022, a year after Trump left office, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/21/1099912475/states-courts-debate-18-year-olds-buy-long-guns">18-year-olds</a>, including the gunmen allegedly responsible for the <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/25/uvalde-shooter-bought-gun-legally/">mass shootings in Uvalde</a> and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/17/us/buffalo-mass-shooting-guns-suspect/index.html">Buffalo</a>, were able to legally purchase firearms.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"966681883206668289"}"></div></p>
<p>In politics, victory usually belongs to whoever shows up. And by showing up, the NRA has managed to <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/5-years-after-newtown-gun-control-groups-still-looking-big-n829871">strangle every federal effort to restrict guns</a> since the Newtown shooting.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, the NRA does not always win. At least 25 states had <a href="https://momsdemandaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Moms_5Year_Memo_120117A.pdf">enacted their own new gun regulations</a> within five years of that tragedy.</p>
<h2>Supreme Court ruling’s repercussions</h2>
<p>These latest mass shootings may stir gun safety supporters to mobilize public outrage and turn out voters favoring stricter firearm regulations during the 2022 midterm elections.</p>
<p>But there is a wild card: The Supreme Court will soon rule on <a href="https://theconversation.com/first-major-second-amendment-case-before-the-supreme-court-in-over-a-decade-could-topple-gun-restrictions-166703">New York State Rifle & Pistol Club v. Bruen</a>, the most significant case regarding gun rights it has considered in years. It’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-appears-to-suggest-right-to-guns-at-home-extends-to-carrying-them-in-public-too-171263">likely that the court will strike down</a> a long-standing New York pistol permit law, broadening the right to carry guns in public across the United States. </p>
<p>Such a decision could galvanize gun safety supporters while also emboldening gun rights activists – making the debate about guns in America even more tumultuous.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an article originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nras-journey-from-marksmanship-to-political-brinkmanship-92160">February 23, 2018</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183880/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Spitzer is a member of the National Rifle Association and the Giffords organization.</span></em></p>The group, founded in 1871, didn’t try to smother virtually all gun control efforts until the mid-1970s.Robert Spitzer, Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of the Political Science Department, State University of New York CortlandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1838792022-05-25T20:56:52Z2022-05-25T20:56:52ZAfter mass shootings like Uvalde, national gun control fails – but states often loosen gun laws<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465365/original/file-20220525-12-c3wncn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A girl cries outside the Willie de Leon Civic Center in Uvalde, Texas, on May 24, 2022.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/girl-cries-outside-the-willie-de-leon-civic-center-where-grief-will-picture-id1240884163?s=2048x2048">Allison Dinner/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Calls <a href="https://rollcall.com/2022/05/24/biden-renews-calls-for-congress-to-stand-up-to-gun-lobby-after-texas-school-shooting/">for new gun legislation</a> that previously failed to pass Congress are being raised again after the May 24, 2022, mass shooting at an elementary school in the small town of Uvalde, Texas. </p>
<p>An 18-year-old shooter<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/ted-cruz-texas-school-shooting-comments"> killed at least</a> 19 <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/05/25/1101175912/uvalde-texas-shooting-victims-4th-grade-classroom">fourth grade students</a> and two teachers at Robb Elementary School, marking the deadliest school shooting in the U.S. in a decade. </p>
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<p>The U.S. has been here before – after shootings in Tucson, Aurora, Newtown, Charleston, Roseburg, San Bernardino, Orlando, Las Vegas, Parkland, El Paso, <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2021/03/22/police-active-shooter-shooting-king-soopers-boulder/">Boulder</a>, and 10 days earlier at a grocery store in Buffalo, N.Y. </p>
<p>Gun production and sales in the U.S. remain high, following a <a href="https://everytownresearch.org/report/gun-violence-and-covid-19-in-2020-a-year-of-colliding-crises/">purchasing surge</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, the firearms <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2022/01/05/us-bought-almost-20-million-guns-last-year---second-highest-year-on-record/?sh=138bc4de13bb">industry sold</a> about six guns for every 100 Americans.</p>
<p>Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut was among the Democratic politicians who pleaded for action on gun control as horrifying details of the Uvalde school shooting unfolded.</p>
<p>“What are we doing?” <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/us/chris-murphy-texas-shooting-sandy-hook.html">Murphy asked</a> other lawmakers, speaking from the Senate floor on the day of the shooting. “Why are you here if not to solve a problem as existential as this?”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-many-gun-control-proposals-have-been-offered-since-2011/">Congress has declined to pass significant new gun legislation after dozens of shootings</a>, including those that occurred during periods like this one, with Democrats controlling the House of Representatives, Senate and presidency.</p>
<p>This response may seem puzzling given that national opinion polls reveal <a href="https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/343649/american-public-opinion-gun-violence.aspx">extensive support for several gun control policies</a>, including expanding background checks and banning assault weapons. </p>
<p>In October 2021, 52% of people <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/1645/guns.aspx">polled by Gallup</a> said that they thought firearm sales laws should be made more strict.</p>
<p>But <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-polls-say-people-want-gun-control-why-doesnt-congress-just-pass-it-92569">polls do not determine policy</a>. </p>
<p>I <a href="https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty-and-research/strategy/faculty/poliquin">am a professor of strategy at UCLA and have researched gun policy</a>. With my co-authors at Harvard University, I’ve studied <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">how gun laws change following mass shootings</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">Our research</a> on this topic finds there is legislative activity following these tragedies, but it’s at the state level. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A Democratic senator and Sandy Hook parents and teachers at a press conference in the US Capitol in 2013." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391690/original/file-20210325-21-qnymkw.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) speaks to the media as teachers, parents and residents from Newtown, Conn. – where the Sandy Hook school massacre happened – listen after a Capitol Hill hearing on Feb. 27, 2013, on the Assault Weapons Ban of 2013.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-richard-blumenthal-speaks-to-the-press-as-newtown-news-photo/162798731?adppopup=true">Alex Wong/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Restrictions loosened</h2>
<p>Stricter gun laws at the national level are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/04/20/amid-a-series-of-mass-shootings-in-the-u-s-gun-policy-remains-deeply-divisive/">more popular among Democrats than Republicans</a>, and major new legislation would likely need votes from at least 10 Republican senators. Many of these senators represent constituencies opposed to gun control. </p>
<p>Despite national polls showing majority <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/09/13/key-facts-about-americans-and-guns/">support for an assault weapons ban</a>, <a href="https://giffords.org/lawcenter/gun-laws/policy-areas/hardware-ammunition/assault-weapons/">not one</a> of <a href="https://www.ncsl.org/research/about-state-legislatures/partisan-composition.aspx#">the 30 states with a Republican-controlled legislature</a> has such a policy. </p>
<p>U.S. Texas Senator Ted Cruz <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2022/05/25/ted-cruz-uvalde-texas-school-shooting-sot-nr-intl-vpx.cnn">said on May 24</a> that more gun control laws could not have prevented the Uvalde attack, explaining “that doesn’t work, it’s not effective, it doesn’t prevent crime.”</p>
<p>The absence of strict control policies in Republican-controlled states shows that senators crossing party lines to support gun control would be out of step with the views of voters whose support they need to win elections. </p>
<p>But a lack of action from Congress doesn’t mean gun laws are stagnant after mass shootings. </p>
<p>To examine how policy changes, we assembled data on shootings and gun legislation in the 50 states between 1990 and 2014. Overall, we identified more than 20,000 firearm bills and nearly 3,200 enacted laws. Some of these loosened gun restrictions, others tightened them, and still others did neither or both – that is, tightened in some dimensions but loosened in others. </p>
<p>We then compared gun laws before and after mass shootings in states where mass shootings occurred, relative to all other states.</p>
<p>Contrary to the view that nothing changes, state legislatures consider 15% more firearm bills the year after a mass shooting. Deadlier shootings – which receive more media attention – have larger effects. </p>
<p>In fact, mass shootings have a greater influence on lawmakers than other homicides, even though <a href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44126/5#page=12">they account for less than 1% of gun deaths in the United States</a>.</p>
<p>As impressive as this 15% increase in gun bills may sound, gun legislation can reduce gun violence only if it becomes law. And when it comes to enacting these bills into law, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">our research</a> found that mass shootings do not regularly cause lawmakers to tighten gun restrictions. </p>
<p>In fact, we found the opposite. Republican state legislatures pass significantly more gun laws that loosen restrictions on firearms after mass shootings.</p>
<p>In 2021, Texas Governor Greg Abbott <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/24/us/texas-gun-laws.html">signed a new law</a> that eliminated a requirement for Texans to obtain a license or receive training to carry handguns. <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/03/el-paso-walmart-mass-shooting-legislature/">This came</a> two years after a 2019 mass shooting at a Walmart in El Paso.</p>
<p>That’s not to say Democrats never tighten gun laws – there are prominent examples of Democratic-controlled states passing new legislation following mass shootings. </p>
<p>California, for example, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-brown-guns-20160701-snap-story.html">enacted several new gun laws following a 2015 mass shooting in San Bernardino</a>. Our research shows, however, that Democrats don’t tighten gun laws more than usual following mass shootings.</p>
<p>After the Buffalo shooting in early May 2022, <a href="https://www.timesunion.com/state/article/Hochul-calls-to-raise-the-age-to-purchase-an-17198169.php">New York Governor Kathy Hochul said</a> that she would work to increase the age for legal gun purchasing from 18 to 21 “at a minimum.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="'Change gun laws or change Congress' reads a sign at a 2018 rally in New York City." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391697/original/file-20210325-23-1i2bw5k.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In August 2018, Moms Demand Action hosted a rally at New York City’s Foley Square to call upon Congress to pass gun safety laws.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/moms-demand-action-hosted-a-recess-rally-and-community-news-photo/1229015033?adppopup=true">Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>Ideology governs response</h2>
<p>The contrasting response from Democrats and Republicans is indicative of different philosophies regarding the causes of gun violence and the best ways to reduce deaths. </p>
<p>While Democrats tend to view social factors as contributing to violence, Republicans are more likely to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00894.x">blame the individual shooters</a>. </p>
<p>Cruz, for example,<a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/05/25/ted-cruz-texas-school-shooting-comments"> has said </a>that stopping individuals with criminal records from committing violence could help prevent mass shootings. </p>
<p>Politicians favoring looser restrictions on guns following mass shootings frequently argue that more people carrying guns would allow <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4954192/user-clip-ted-cruz-guns-defense">law-abiding citizens to stop perpetrators</a>. </p>
<p>In fact, <a href="https://doi.org/10.7326/M16-1574">gun sales often surge after mass shootings</a>, in part because people fear being victimized.</p>
<p>Democrats, in contrast, typically <a href="https://aclanthology.org/N19-1304.pdf">focus more on trying to solve policy</a> and societal problems that contribute to gun violence. </p>
<p>For both sides, mass shootings are an opportunity to propose bills consistent with their ideology.</p>
<p>Since we wrote <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2019.104083">our study</a> of gun legislation following mass shootings, which covered the period through 2014, several additional tragedies have energized the <a href="https://www.sandyhookpromise.org">gun control movement</a> that emerged following the December 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut. These include the May 2022 shooting at the Tops grocery store in Buffalo, as well as the Uvalde school massacre. </p>
<p>While President Joe Biden issued <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/07/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-initial-actions-to-address-the-gun-violence-public-health-epidemic/">executive orders</a> in 2021 with the goal of reducing gun violence, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/22/guns-biden-democrats-buffalo/">action in Congress remains elusive</a>. States, meanwhile, have been more active on the issue.</p>
<p>Student activism following the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, did not result in congressional action but led several states to pass <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2018/08/02/after-parkland-states-pass-50-new-gun-control-laws">new gun control laws</a>. </p>
<p>With more funding and better organization, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-a-missing-movement-made-gun-control-a-winning-issue-113301">this new movement is better positioned</a> than prior gun control movements to advocate for stricter gun policies following mass shootings. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/25/biden-reaction-uvalde-school-shooting">Public outcry</a> and devastation over the Uvalde shootings will likely provide fuel to this advocacy work.</p>
<p>But with states historically more active than Congress on the issue of guns, both advocates and opponents of new restrictions should look beyond Washington for action on gun policy.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/gun-control-fails-quickly-in-congress-after-each-mass-shooting-but-states-often-act-including-to-loosen-gun-laws-157746">article originally published on March 21, 2021</a>. This article was updated to indicate there were 10 days between the Buffalo, New York and Uvalde, Texas shootings.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Poliquin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After mass shootings, politicians in Washington have failed to pass new gun control legislation, despite public pressure. But laws are being passed at the state level, largely to loosen restrictions.Christopher Poliquin, Assistant Professor of Strategy, University of California, Los AngelesLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1838112022-05-25T04:21:53Z2022-05-25T04:21:53Z19 children, 2 adults killed in Texas elementary school shooting – 3 essential reads on America’s relentless gun violence<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465188/original/file-20220525-22-r8n9he.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=16%2C8%2C5514%2C3692&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Friends and families gather outside the civic center after the mass school shooting on May 24, 2022, in Uvalde, Texas.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/friends-and-families-gather-in-mourning-outside-the-willie-news-photo/1240884434?adppopup=true">Allison Dinner/AFP via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>At least <a href="https://apnews.com/article/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-44a7cfb990feaa6ffe482483df6e4683">19 children and two adults were killed</a> when a teenage gunman shot them at a Texas elementary school on May 24, 2022 – the latest mass shooting in a country in which such incidents have become common.</em> </p>
<p><em>A lot remains unknown about the attack at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, a small, predominantly Latino town in South Texas. Police have not as yet revealed a possible motive behind the attack, in which the 18-year-old went <a href="https://apnews.com/article/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-b4e4648ed0ae454897d540e787d092b2">classroom to classroom</a> dressed in body armor and <a href="https://www.star-telegram.com/news/state/texas/article261766762.html">carrying two military-style rifles</a>, according to reports.</em></p>
<p><em>As the graph below shows, the frequency of school shootings in the U.S. has increased dramatically over the last few years.</em></p>
<p><iframe id="7h90C" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/7h90C/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><em>Here are three stories from The Conversation’s archives to help fill in the recent history of mass shootings in the U.S. - and explain why the government has failed to take action on gun control, despite the carnage.</em></p>
<h2>1. School shootings are at a record high</h2>
<p>The attack at Robb Elementary School was, according to the data, the 137th school shooting incident to take place in the U.S. so far this year. In 2021, there were 249 school shootings – by far the worst year on record.</p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=iS4HAEMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">James Densley</a>, of Metropolitan State University, and Hamline University’s <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=hoHQX8MAAAAJ">Jillian Peterson</a> log such incidents in a database of U.S. mass shootings. It has helped them <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-shootings-are-at-a-record-high-this-year-but-they-can-be-prevented-173027">build a profile</a> of the typical school shooting suspect – some of which appears to apply to the suspect in the latest massacre, such as his age and gender. In general, school shooters overwhelmingly tend to be current or former students of the school they attack. And they are “almost always” in a crisis of some sort prior to the incident, as evidenced by changes in their behavior. Suspects are also often inspired by other school shooters, which could go some way in explaining the rapid growth in such attacks in recent years.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465180/original/file-20220525-23-wfcxtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A crowd of people in uniforms and safety vests, standing near an ambulance and empty gurney." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465180/original/file-20220525-23-wfcxtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465180/original/file-20220525-23-wfcxtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465180/original/file-20220525-23-wfcxtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465180/original/file-20220525-23-wfcxtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465180/original/file-20220525-23-wfcxtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465180/original/file-20220525-23-wfcxtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465180/original/file-20220525-23-wfcxtj.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Emergency personnel gather near Robb Elementary School following the shooting on May 24, 2022, in Uvalde, Texas.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/TexasSchool-Shooting/75967cc3d313454a8202d52a111e7177/photo?hpSectionId=b1a31fac82e344e1a676d23a6893d1d6&st=hpsection&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=66&currentItemNo=33">AP Photo/Dario Lopez-Mills</a></span>
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<p>Densley and Peterson write that the “overwhelming number of shootings and shooting threats” have left schools struggling to respond, resulting in a patchwork of different measures that have failed to slow the frequency of attacks across the states. The two scholars contrast this local response to school shooting in the U.S. to the national legislative action taken in countries such as the U.K., Finland and Germany, concluding: “School shootings are not inevitable. They’re preventable. But practitioners and policymakers must act quickly because each school shooting feeds the cycle for the next one, causing harm far beyond that which is measured in <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-shootings-are-at-a-record-high-this-year-but-they-can-be-prevented-173027">lives lost.”</a></p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/school-shootings-are-at-a-record-high-this-year-but-they-can-be-prevented-173027">School shootings are at a record high this year – but they can be prevented</a>
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<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465176/original/file-20220525-21-wfcxtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C4735%2C3159&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A uniformed officer walks past a sign saying 'Welcome Robb Elementary School Bienvenidos'" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465176/original/file-20220525-21-wfcxtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C21%2C4735%2C3159&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/465176/original/file-20220525-21-wfcxtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465176/original/file-20220525-21-wfcxtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465176/original/file-20220525-21-wfcxtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=403&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465176/original/file-20220525-21-wfcxtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465176/original/file-20220525-21-wfcxtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/465176/original/file-20220525-21-wfcxtj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=506&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">An officer in uniform walks past a sign that says ‘Welcome Robb Elementary School Bienvenidos.’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/an-officer-walks-outside-of-robb-elementary-school-in-news-photo/1240883008?adppopup=true">Allison Dinner/AFP via Getty Images</a></span>
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<h2>2. More guns within reach of would-be school shooters</h2>
<p>While some of the traits that make up a “typical” U.S. school shooter may appear in those living in other countries, too, there is one area in which the U.S. stands alone – access to guns.</p>
<p>The suspect in the Robb Elementary School reportedly bought his military-style rifles <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/05/24/school-shooting-uvalde-texas-updates/">shortly after his 18th birthday</a>. That he was able to do so apparently with ease is likely due to the lax gun control laws in place in Texas, where the alleged shooter lived, and in the U.S. That lack of substantive regulation has led to an ever-increasing number of firearms in the hands of U.S. residents – a trend that has <a href="https://theconversation.com/most-school-shooters-get-their-guns-from-home-and-during-the-pandemic-the-number-of-firearms-in-households-with-teenagers-went-up-172951">only accelerated in recent years</a>, as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=3xTR4rsAAAAJ">University of Michigan’s Patrick Carter</a> and <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=B9HaG4kAAAAJ">Marc A. Zimmerman</a> and <a href="https://socialwork.wayne.edu/profile/hf8856">Rebeccah Sokol</a> of Wayne State University note.</p>
<p>“Since the onset of the public health crisis, firearm sales have spiked. Many of these firearms have ended up in households with teenage children, increasing the risk of accidental or intentional injury or fatalities, or death by suicide,” they write. It also makes it easier for would-be school shooters to get their hands on firearms that left unsecured around the house. </p>
<p>“Most school shooters obtain the firearm from home. And the number of guns within reach of high school-age teenagers has increased during the pandemic,” they write.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/most-school-shooters-get-their-guns-from-home-and-during-the-pandemic-the-number-of-firearms-in-households-with-teenagers-went-up-172951">Most school shooters get their guns from home – and during the pandemic, the number of firearms in households with teenagers went up</a>
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<h2>3. Why popular support for gun control isn’t enough</h2>
<p>In response to the killings in Texas, calls for stronger gun control laws are already being made, including by President Joe Biden in his speech the night of the shooting. But as evidenced by the lack of meaningful political action after the Sandy Hook massacre, in which 20 children and six school staff members were killed, the chances of getting anything through Congress appear slim.</p>
<p>This is despite polling that shows that a majority of Americans actually support stronger gun laws such as a ban on assault weapons.</p>
<p>So why doesn’t the government do what the people want? Harry Wilson, a professor of public affairs at Roanoke College, has <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-polls-say-people-want-gun-control-why-doesnt-congress-just-pass-it-92569">a three-part answer</a>. </p>
<p>First, the United States is not a direct democracy and, as such, citizens do not make decisions themselves, Wilson writes. Instead, the power to make laws lies in the hands of their elected representatives in Congress. But “the composition and rules of Congress are also crucial, especially in the Senate,” he writes, “where each state has two votes. This allocation of senators disproportionately represents the interests of less populous states.”</p>
<p>Secondly, “polling and public opinion are not as straightforward as they seem. Focusing on only one or two poll questions can distort the public’s views regarding gun control,” says Wilson.</p>
<p>And finally, the influence of voters and interest groups acts as a counterbalance to popular opinion. </p>
<p>“Gun owners are more likely than non-owners to vote based on the issue of gun control, to have contacted an elected official about gun rights, and to have contributed money to an organization that takes a position on gun control,” writes Wilson. </p>
<p>Meanwhile lobbying groups representing huge membership, like the NRA, put further pressure on elected representatives. “Elected officials want votes. There is no doubt that money is essential for political campaigns, but votes, not money or polls, are what determine elections. If a group can supply votes, then it has power,” writes Wilson.</p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/if-polls-say-people-want-gun-control-why-doesnt-congress-just-pass-it-92569">If polls say people want gun control, why doesn't Congress just pass it?</a>
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<p><em>Editor’s note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation’s archives.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/183811/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
A school shooting in a small Texas town was almost as deadly as the worst such event in US history. Such shootings have increased in frequency over the last few years.Matt Williams, Senior International EditorLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1778792022-02-24T22:48:41Z2022-02-24T22:48:41ZWhat are false flag attacks – and did Russia stage any to claim justification for invading Ukraine?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448405/original/file-20220224-13-1ii1q5i.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5166%2C3441&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A military vehicle destroyed on Feb. 18, 2022, by an explosion in Donetsk, a city in eastern Ukraine controlled by Russian separatists.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/car-blown-up-on-a-parking-lot-outside-a-government-building-news-photo/1238595237">Nikolai Trishin\TASS via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Russian assault on Ukraine, which began in the early hours of Feb. 24, 2022, was launched after weeks of Russian disinformation that included false claims about Ukrainian terrorist attacks, assaults on civilians and military aggression against the self-proclaimed breakaway republics in eastern Ukraine.</p>
<p>Observers have been on the lookout for a Russian “false flag” attack, a highly visible event that Russia could use as justification for taking military action. False flag attacks are attacks by a government on its own forces to create the appearance of hostile action by an opponent, allowing the government to broadcast images to the world of its opponent’s supposed actions.</p>
<p>The Kremlin and pro-government propagandists on television and social media have put out a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-media-cites-videos-maybe-pretext-invade-ukraine-2022-2">variety of claims</a> accusing Ukraine of carrying out bombings, blaming Ukraine for nonexistent attacks and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/business/russia-has-been-laying-groundwork-online-for-a-false-flag-operation-misinformation-researchers-say.html">warning</a> of nefarious future Ukrainian and Western plots, including false flag operations. The claims include a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-official-accused-russia-car-bombing-rebel-held-ukraine-2022-2">car bombing</a> and an <a href="https://tass.com/emergencies/1405995">alleged attempt by Ukrainian saboteurs</a> to blow up a chemical storage facility, both in separatist eastern Ukraine. The messaging is meant to create an impression of a Ukrainian onslaught and impending humanitarian crisis.</p>
<p>If Russia attempted actual false flag attacks, they were one element of a larger campaign to build a narrative about Ukrainian “provocations” – unwarranted actions that require a defensive and retaliatory response. Putin invoked this logic in his memorable <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/23/fact-checking-putins-speech-ukraine/">speech that delivered his justifications for an invasion</a>.</p>
<p>Yet even in that speech, which was laden with dubious historical claims, pent-up grievances and false accusations about the Ukrainian government, the recent upsurge in fighting in the Donbas region registered almost as an afterthought. This is in contrast to Russia’s invasion in the <a href="https://warontherocks.com/2018/08/the-august-war-ten-years-on-a-retrospective-on-the-russo-georgian-war/">2008 war with Georgia</a>, which the Kremlin justified in terms of protecting “its” citizens from Georgian attacks. Given the lack of the pretense of a plausible rationale, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the Kremlin is unconcerned about how the world views its invasion.</p>
<h2>Capturing the (false) flag</h2>
<p>In the past few weeks, U.S. officials have warned <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-belarus-jens-stoltenberg-43c9151532de706a2edec5684dfcf07d">several</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/13/ukraine-invasion-false-flag-00008470">times</a> that Russia planned a false flag attack. Such an operation, they alleged, would give Russia the pretext to invade Ukraine by provoking shock and outrage.</p>
<p>By exposing this plan, the Biden administration sought to undermine its emotional power and stop the Kremlin from manufacturing a casus belli, or justification for war.</p>
<p>But false flag attacks aren’t what they used to be. With satellite photos and live video on the ground <a href="https://theconversation.com/technology-is-revolutionizing-how-intelligence-is-gathered-and-analyzed-and-opening-a-window-onto-russian-military-activity-around-ukraine-176446">shared widely and instantly on the internet</a> – and with journalists and armchair sleuths joining intelligence professionals in analyzing the information – it’s difficult to get away with false flag attacks today. And with the prevalence of disinformation campaigns, manufacturing a justification for war doesn’t require the expense or risk of a false flag – let alone an actual attack.</p>
<h2>The long history of false flag attacks</h2>
<p>Both false flag attacks and allegations that states engage in them have a long history. The term originated to describe pirates’ wielding of friendly (and false) flags to lure merchant ships close enough to attack. It was later used as a label for any attack – real or simulated – that the instigators inflict against “friendly” forces to incriminate an adversary and create the basis for retaliation. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a large open-frame tower in a field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Gleiwitz incident involved Nazi operatives staging an attack on a radio station near the Polish border in 1939 and blaming the attack on the Polish government as an excuse to invade Poland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Himmler#/media/File:Sender_gliwice.jpg">Grimmi59 rade/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 20th century, there were several prominent episodes involving false flag operations. In 1939, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120314190818/http:/www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-two/6106566/World-War-IIs-first-victim.html">agents from Nazi Germany</a> broadcast anti-German messages from a German radio station near the Polish border. They also murdered several civilians whom they dressed in Polish military uniforms to create a pretext for Germany’s planned invasion of Poland. </p>
<p>That same year, the Soviet Union <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/A_Frozen_Hell/yXsLNVaDfcoC?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=Mainila">detonated shells</a> in Soviet territory near the Finnish border and blamed Finland, which it then proceeded to invade. </p>
<p>The U.S. has also been implicated in similar plots. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=92662&page=1">Operation Northwoods</a> was a proposal to kill Americans and blame the attack on Castro, thereby granting the military the pretext to invade Cuba. The Kennedy administration ultimately rejected the plan.</p>
<p>In addition to these actual plots, there have been numerous alleged false flag attacks involving the U.S. government. The sinking of the <a href="http://www.nhgallery.org/uss-maine/">USS Maine</a> in 1898 and the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/the-gulf-of-tonkin-incident-50-years-ago">Gulf of Tonkin incident</a> in 1964 – each of which was a critical part of a casus belli – have been claimed as possible false flag attacks, though the evidence supporting these allegations is weak.</p>
<h2>Global visibility, disinformation and cynicism</h2>
<p>More recent and even less fact-based is the “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/9-11-and-the-rise-of-the-new-conspiracy-theorists-11599768458">9/11 Truth</a>” movement, which alleged that the Bush administration engineered the destruction of the twin towers to justify restrictions on civil liberties and lay the foundation for invading Iraq. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/22/17036018/parkland-conspiracy-theories">Right-wing pundits and politicians</a> have promoted the conspiracy theory that Democrats have staged mass shootings, such as the one at a high school in Parkland, Florida, in 2018, in order to push for gun control laws. </p>
<p>If people believe that false flag operations happen, it is <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/what-is-a-false-flag/">not because they are common</a>. Instead, they gain plausibility from the <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/news/low-political-integrity-throughout-the-european-union-gcb-eu-2021">widespread perception that politicians are unscrupulous</a> and take advantage of crises. </p>
<p>Furthermore, governments operate in relative secrecy and have recourse to tools of coercion such as intelligence, well-trained agents and weapons to implement their agenda. It is not a huge leap to imagine that leaders deliberately cause the high-impact events that they later exploit for political gain, notwithstanding the logistical complexities, large number of people who would have to be involved and moral qualms leaders might have about murdering their own citizens. </p>
<p>For example, it is not controversial to note that the Bush administration used the 9/11 attacks to build support for its <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2021/07/22/why-did-we-invade-iraq/">invasion of Iraq</a>. Yet this led some people to conclude that, since the Bush administration benefited politically from 9/11, it therefore must have caused the attacks, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/seven-resources-debunking-911-conspiracy-theories">despite all evidence to the contrary</a>.</p>
<h2>The challenge of credibility</h2>
<p>The willingness to believe that leaders are capable of such atrocities reflects a broader trend of <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/2021/07/trust-public-institutions/">rising distrust</a> toward governments worldwide, which, incidentally, complicates matters for leaders who intend to carry out false flag attacks. If the impact of such attacks has historically come from their ability to rally citizens around their leader, false flag attacks staged today may not only fail to provoke outrage against the purported aggressor, but they can also backfire by casting suspicion on the leaders who stand to benefit. </p>
<p>Furthermore, investigators using open source intelligence, such as the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/how-bellingcat-unmasked-putins-assassins">Bellingcat collective</a> of citizen internet sleuths, make it more difficult for governments to get away with egregious violations of laws and international norms.</p>
<p>Even as the Biden administration attempts to blunt Russia’s ability to seize the initiative, it too faces credibility challenges. Reporters were justifiably <a href="https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-russia-ukraine-health-europe-national-security-5c4182d83dd8b7585ac49fdbb5f91c45">skeptical of State Department spokesman</a> Ned Price’s warning about Russia’s false flag plans, especially since he did not provide evidence for the claim. </p>
<p>Skeptics pointed to the August 2021 drone strike during the U.S. withdrawal from Kabul, which the military initially asserted was a “righteous strike” to kill a suicide bomber but that later turned out to be a mistaken attack on an innocent man and his family. It took <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/afghanistan-drone-strike-video.html">overwhelming and undeniable evidence</a> from media investigations before the U.S. government admitted the mistake.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Insofar as the Kremlin might expect to benefit from executing a false flag attack, it would be to manufacture a casus belli among Russian citizens rather than to persuade audiences abroad. Surveys have shown that the vast majority of Russians are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/11/russia-may-be-about-invade-ukraine-russians-dont-want-it/">opposed to invading Ukraine</a>, yet they also harbor negative attitudes toward NATO. </p>
<p>The spectacle of a provocation aimed against Russia on state-run television might provide a jolt of support for an invasion, at least initially. At the same time, Russians are <a href="https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/civil-society-russia-its-role-under-authoritarian-regime-part-ii-russian-society-today-life-opinions-nostalgia/">cynical about their own leaders</a> and might harbor the suspicion that a purported attack was manufactured for political gain.</p>
<h2>False flag alternatives</h2>
<p>In any event, Russia had other options to facilitate the invasion. At the start of its incursion into Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin used “<a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/russian-active-measures/9783838215297">active measures</a>,” including disinformation and deception, to prevent Ukrainian resistance and secure domestic approval. Russia and other post-Soviet states are also prone to claim a “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Revealing_Schemes/ezkqEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=provocation">provocation</a>,” which frames any military action as a justified response rather than a first move. </p>
<p>By contrast, false flag operations are complex and perhaps overly theatrical in a way that invites unwanted scrutiny. Governments seeking to sway public opinion face far greater challenges today than they did in the 20th century. False flag attacks are risky, while leaders seeking to manufacture a casus belli can select from a range of subtler and less costly alternatives.</p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of an <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-false-flag-attacks-and-could-russia-make-one-work-in-the-information-age-177128">article</a> originally published on Feb. 17, 2022.</em></p>
<p>[<em><a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?nl=politics&source=inline-politics-important">Get The Conversation’s most important politics headlines, in our Politics Weekly newsletter</a>.</em>]</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177879/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Radnitz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Attacking your own side and blaming your foe has a long history and a firm grip on the popular imagination. But the internet makes it difficult to pull off – and less desirable.Scott Radnitz, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1771282022-02-17T21:12:33Z2022-02-17T21:12:33ZWhat are false flag attacks – and could Russia make one work in the information age?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447107/original/file-20220217-1111-q3f2em.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C6000%2C3988&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Russian and Ukrainian governments both blamed forces aligned with the other for mortar fire in eastern Ukraine and for using the accusations as justification for increased aggression.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/UkraineTensions/12cfaa5995ae41b492b6d37f87f25be1/photo">AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>An updated version of this article was published on Feb. 24, 2022. <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-are-false-flag-attacks-and-did-russia-stage-any-to-claim-justification-for-invading-ukraine-177879">Read it here</a>.</em></p>
<p>In the past few weeks, U.S. officials have warned <a href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-belarus-jens-stoltenberg-43c9151532de706a2edec5684dfcf07d">several</a> <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/13/ukraine-invasion-false-flag-00008470">times</a> that Russia plans to create the appearance of an attack on its own forces and broadcast those images to the world. Such a “false flag” operation, they alleged, would give Russia the pretext to invade Ukraine by provoking shock and outrage. </p>
<p>By exposing this plan, the Biden administration sought to undermine its emotional power and stop the Kremlin from manufacturing a casus belli, or justification for war.</p>
<p>But false flag attacks aren’t what they used to be. With satellite photos and live video on the ground <a href="https://theconversation.com/technology-is-revolutionizing-how-intelligence-is-gathered-and-analyzed-and-opening-a-window-onto-russian-military-activity-around-ukraine-176446">shared widely and instantly on the internet</a> – and with journalists and armchair sleuths joining intelligence professionals in analyzing the information – it’s difficult to get away with false flag attacks today. And with the prevalence of disinformation campaigns, manufacturing a justification for war doesn’t require the expense or risk of a false flag – let alone an actual attack.</p>
<h2>The long history of false flag attacks</h2>
<p>Both false flag attacks and allegations that states engage in them have a long history. The term originated to describe pirates’ wielding of friendly (and false) flags to lure merchant ships close enough to attack. It was later used as a label for any attack – real or simulated – that the instigators inflict against “friendly” forces to incriminate an adversary and create the basis for retaliation. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a large open-frame tower in a field" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=882&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/447119/original/file-20220217-23-mu8o6x.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1109&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Gleiwitz incident involved Nazi operatives staging an attack on a radio station near the Polish border in 1939 and blaming the attack on the Polish government as an excuse to invade Poland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Himmler#/media/File:Sender_gliwice.jpg">Grimmi59 rade/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the 20th century, there were several prominent episodes involving false flag operations. In 1939, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20120314190818/http:/www.telegraph.co.uk/history/world-war-two/6106566/World-War-IIs-first-victim.html">agents from Nazi Germany</a> broadcast anti-German messages from a German radio station near the Polish border. They also murdered several civilians whom they dressed in Polish military uniforms to create a pretext for Germany’s planned invasion of Poland. </p>
<p>That same year, the Soviet Union <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/A_Frozen_Hell/yXsLNVaDfcoC?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=Mainila">detonated shells</a> in Soviet territory near the Finnish border and blamed Finland, which it then proceeded to invade. </p>
<p>The U.S. has also been implicated in similar plots. <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=92662&page=1">Operation Northwoods</a> was a proposal to kill Americans and blame the attack on Castro, thereby granting the military the pretext to invade Cuba. The Kennedy administration ultimately rejected the plan.</p>
<p>In addition to these actual plots, there have been numerous alleged false flag attacks involving the U.S. government. The sinking of the <a href="http://www.nhgallery.org/uss-maine/">USS Maine</a> in 1898 and the <a href="https://www.history.com/news/the-gulf-of-tonkin-incident-50-years-ago">Gulf of Tonkin incident</a> in 1964 – each of which was a critical part of a casus belli – have been claimed as possible false flag attacks, though the evidence supporting these allegations is weak.</p>
<h2>Global visibility, disinformation and cynicism</h2>
<p>More recent and even less fact-based is the “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/9-11-and-the-rise-of-the-new-conspiracy-theorists-11599768458">9/11 Truth</a>” movement, which alleged that the Bush administration engineered the destruction of the twin towers to justify restrictions on civil liberties and lay the foundation for invading Iraq. <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/22/17036018/parkland-conspiracy-theories">Right-wing pundits and politicians</a> have promoted the conspiracy theory that Democrats have staged mass shootings, such as the one at a high school in Parkland, Florida, in 2018, in order to push for gun control laws. </p>
<p>If people believe that false flag operations happen, it is <a href="https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2022/what-is-a-false-flag/">not because they are common</a>. Instead, they gain plausibility from the <a href="https://www.transparency.org/en/news/low-political-integrity-throughout-the-european-union-gcb-eu-2021">widespread perception that politicians are unscrupulous</a> and take advantage of crises. </p>
<p>Furthermore, governments operate in relative secrecy and have recourse to tools of coercion such as intelligence, well-trained agents and weapons to implement their agenda. It is not a huge leap to imagine that leaders deliberately cause the high-impact events that they later exploit for political gain, notwithstanding the logistical complexities, large number of people who would have to be involved and moral qualms leaders might have about murdering their own citizens. </p>
<p>For example, it is not controversial to note that the Bush administration used the 9/11 attacks to build support for its <a href="https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2021/07/22/why-did-we-invade-iraq/">invasion of Iraq</a>. Yet this led some people to conclude that, since the Bush administration benefited politically from 9/11, it therefore must have caused the attacks, <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/seven-resources-debunking-911-conspiracy-theories">despite all evidence to the contrary</a>.</p>
<h2>The challenge of credibility</h2>
<p>The willingness to believe that leaders are capable of such atrocities reflects a broader trend of <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/2021/07/trust-public-institutions/">rising distrust</a> toward governments worldwide, which, incidentally, complicates matters for leaders who intend to carry out false flag attacks. If the impact of such attacks has historically come from their ability to rally citizens around their leader, false flag attacks staged today may not only fail to provoke outrage against the purported aggressor, but they can also backfire by casting suspicion on the leaders who stand to benefit. </p>
<p>Furthermore, investigators using open source intelligence, such as the <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/how-bellingcat-unmasked-putins-assassins">Bellingcat collective</a> of citizen internet sleuths, make it more difficult for governments to get away with egregious violations of laws and international norms.</p>
<p>Even as the Biden administration attempts to blunt Russia’s ability to seize the initiative, it too faces credibility challenges. Reporters were justifiably <a href="https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-russia-ukraine-health-europe-national-security-5c4182d83dd8b7585ac49fdbb5f91c45">skeptical of State Department spokesman</a> Ned Price’s warning about Russia’s false flag plans, especially since he did not provide evidence for the claim. </p>
<p>Skeptics pointed to the August 2021 drone strike during the U.S. withdrawal from Kabul, which the military initially asserted was a “righteous strike” to kill a suicide bomber but that later turned out to be a mistaken attack on an innocent man and his family. It took <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/19/us/politics/afghanistan-drone-strike-video.html">overwhelming and undeniable evidence</a> from media investigations before the U.S. government admitted the mistake.</p>
<p>[<em>Over 140,000 readers rely on The Conversation’s newsletters to understand the world.</em> <a href="https://memberservices.theconversation.com/newsletters/?source=inline-140ksignup">Sign up today</a>.]</p>
<p>Insofar as the Kremlin might expect to benefit from executing a false flag attack, it would be to manufacture a casus belli among Russian citizens rather than to persuade audiences abroad. Surveys have shown that the vast majority of Russians are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/11/russia-may-be-about-invade-ukraine-russians-dont-want-it/">opposed to invading Ukraine</a>, yet they also harbor negative attitudes toward NATO. </p>
<p>The spectacle of a provocation aimed against Russia on state-run television might provide a jolt of support for an invasion, at least initially. At the same time, Russians are <a href="https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/civil-society-russia-its-role-under-authoritarian-regime-part-ii-russian-society-today-life-opinions-nostalgia/">cynical about their own leaders</a> and might harbor the suspicion that a purported attack was manufactured for political gain.</p>
<h2>False flag alternatives</h2>
<p>In any event, Russia has other options to facilitate an invasion. At the start of its incursion into Crimea in 2014, the Kremlin used “<a href="http://cup.columbia.edu/book/russian-active-measures/9783838215297">active measures</a>,” including disinformation and deception, to prevent Ukrainian resistance and secure domestic approval. Russia and other post-Soviet states are also prone to claim a “<a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Revealing_Schemes/ezkqEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=provocation">provocation</a>,” which frames any military action as a justified response rather than a first move. </p>
<p>By contrast, false flag operations are complex and perhaps overly theatrical in a way that invites unwanted scrutiny. Governments seeking to sway public opinion face far greater challenges today than they did in the 20th century. False flag attacks are risky, while leaders seeking to manufacture a casus belli can select from a range of subtler and less costly alternatives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/177128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Radnitz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Attacking your own side and blaming your foe has a long history and a firm grip on the popular imagination. But the internet makes it difficult to pull off – and less desirable.Scott Radnitz, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1133012019-04-10T10:49:22Z2019-04-10T10:49:22ZHow a ‘missing’ movement made gun control a winning issue<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267910/original/file-20190406-115803-1844i79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler shakes hands with Aalayah Eastmond, a senior at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, during a hearing on guns violence at Capitol Hill on Feb. 6, 2019. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Congress-Guns/4914a790284a46058a0eaf8f5ec1f12c/2/0">AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Thirty-three Republicans and all but one Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives agreed to pass <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/04/04/707685268/violence-against-women-act-gets-tangled-up-in-gun-rights-debate">additional restrictions</a> on gun ownership as part of a renewed Violence Against Women Act earlier this month. This move came on the heels of the February passage of two gun control bills: the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8/text">Bipartisan Background Checks Act</a> and the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/1112">Enhanced Background Checks Act</a>, all of which were opposed by the NRA.</p>
<p>As the first gun control legislation to pass either the House or Senate since the <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/103rd-congress/house-bill/4296/text">1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban</a>, the recent bills mark a historic shift in American politics. </p>
<p>We have studied contemporary American gun culture for the past four years, tracing the foundation of the emerging gun control movement. Our <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0276146717715744">research</a> offers insight into the ways that gun violence prevention groups have promoted cultural shifts around guns, and why so many legislators are now willing to broach this contentious issue. </p>
<p>For the past 25 years, gun control has been the untouchable “third rail” of American politics. Even in the face of multiple mass shootings – <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2013/09/18/us/columbine-high-school-shootings-fast-facts/index.html">Columbine</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/16/us/16cnd-shooting.html">Virginia Tech</a>, <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/back-aurora-colorado-movie-theater-shooting-years/story?id=48730066">Aurora</a>, <a href="http://time.com/5061579/sandy-hook-newtown-history/">Sandy Hook</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/2016-orlando-shooting">Orlando</a> and <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/02/555229322/many-questions-remain-in-the-aftermath-of-the-las-vegas-shooting">Las Vegas</a>, to name a few – very few politicians have declared themselves in favor of gun control. On the other hand, many successful politicians have positioned themselves as “pro-gun.” </p>
<p>By avoiding associating themselves with gun control, politicians have skirted a divisive issue. But they have also perpetuated the notion that gun regulations are not feasible or palatable to American citizens.</p>
<p>Background check <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gun-control-overhaul-is-defeated-in-senate/2013/04/17/57eb028a-a77c-11e2-b029-8fb7e977ef71_story.html?utm_term=.33fe4e3698cb">bills failed</a> in the 2013 Democrat-led Senate. They failed again in the 2016 Republican-led Senate. That seems surprising given that national <a href="https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us01142019_trends_utsc21.pdf/">polls</a> report that, for the last six years, nine in 10 Americans have supported background check requirements on gun purchases. The failure of these bills provoked a <a href="https://books.google.com/books/about/Parkland.html?id=ZrhnDwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=kp_read_button#v=onepage&q&f=false">sense of resignation</a> from many Americans weary of the violence, who feared that if the Sandy Hook shooting hadn’t prompted legislative action, nothing would. </p>
<p>As <a href="http://cctweb.org/about">consumer culture</a> scholars, we find two things particularly notable about the passage of the House bills. First, the gun control movement’s seeds, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=04Y3AwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&source=gbs_ge_summary_r&cad=0#v=onepage&q&f=false">planted as far back as 1974</a>, have now begun to sprout. Second, passage of the bills is remarkable evidence of this social movement, irrespective of any Senate action or inaction.</p>
<h2>The emerging movement</h2>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/267908/original/file-20190406-115797-1h93ndk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">March 24, 2018 ‘March for Our Lives’ rally in Washington in support of gun control.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Youth-Vote-Midterms/82e956f385c14ea9acf1426b512f98e1/7/0">AP Photo/Andrew Harnik</a></span>
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<p>American gun violence has provoked routine public condemnation and support for stronger gun laws. Yet, gun policy experts like Duke University political scientist Kristin Goss have described gun control as America’s “<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=FFgQC1hZnpoC&lpg=PP1&dq=kristin%20goss&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q=kristin%20goss&f=false">missing movement</a>.” As of 2006, groups of concerned citizens had not gathered the financial resources, strategic framing and incremental policy changes needed to galvanize into a full-fledged movement.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/20426761211203247">Research</a> on government anti-smoking campaigns has shown that changing the culture requires influencing change at multiple levels, including legislation, business and organization policies and individual behavior. </p>
<p>In recent years, groups like <a href="https://everytown.org/">Everytown for Gun Safety</a> and <a href="https://www.sandyhookpromise.org/">Sandy Hook Promise</a> have worked mostly independently, but in ways that reinforced each other, on issues related to gun violence prevention. For instance, some groups encouraged voters and state legislators to institute <a href="https://giffords.org/issue/background-checks/">universal background checks</a> and businesses to adopt preventive policies, such as Dick’s Sporting Goods’ <a href="https://everytown.org/press/moms-demand-action-everytown-applaud-dicks-sporting-goods-for-changing-its-policies-on-gun-sales-following-the-parkland-school-shooting/">decision</a> to stop selling “assault-style” rifles, while others focused on convincing <a href="https://momsdemandaction.org/preventing-child-access-guns-safeandsound/">gun owners to store</a> their guns in a locked safe. The groups often used <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/facts/statistics/">statistics and research data</a> in their efforts.</p>
<p>These gun violence prevention groups have sought incremental policy changes, while also explicitly supporting Americans’ <a href="https://lawcenter.giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Supreme-Court-and-the-Second-Amendment-Factsheet.pdf">constitutional rights</a>. This measured, <a href="https://today.oregonstate.edu/archives/2017/jul/gun-violence-prevention-groups-strike-middle-ground-meet-goals">middle-ground</a> approach appears to have laid the necessary scaffolding for the full-fledged movement sparked by the Parkland shooting in February of 2018.</p>
<h2>What changed after Parkland</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331843674_Negotiating_the_Legitimacy_of_an_American_Icon_Myth_and_the_US_Gun_Market">research</a> indicates that a critical change happened after Parkland. Parkland survivors galvanized both citizens previously involved in gun violence prevention and a broader range of Americans not with statistics and data, but by employing two powerful and complementary narratives. </p>
<p>The first involves hero-kids taking on the infamous gun lobby – a David-and-Goliath story easy to rally behind. The second challenged parents, and young adults who grew up in an age of lockdown drills, to be heroes themselves by voting pro-gun candidates out of office.</p>
<p>The second narrative involves <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=q2N8DwAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=goss+kristin&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj937vg4IzhAhWqjFQKHVhDAIsQ6AEIPTAD#v=onepage&q=goss%20kristin&f=false">parental duty</a> to protect children. This has been successful for many social movements, and the pro-gun movement is no exception.</p>
<p>A movement’s success can manifest in different forms. Legislation is one such form. Changes in public opinion, individual behaviors or organizational policies, or, more broadly, shifts in the way we talk about social issues are others. This latter form of change is significant. When a contentious issue shifts from a taboo, fringe or radical topic into the mainstream, public attention moves from a question of “whether” to a question of “how” to address the issue.</p>
<p>The activism in the wake of Parkland appears to have made a difference. Many candidates for the federal elections in 2018 made “common sense gun control” part of their <a href="https://lucyforcongress.com/issue/gun-safety/">platform</a>. Notably, many of these candidates, like U.S. Reps. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/04/us/politics/gun-control-candidates-election.html">Jason Crow</a> and <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/09/gun-control-is-winning-issue-in-midterms-as-advocates-gain-in-house-defy-nra.html">Jennifer Wexton</a>, were elected. </p>
<p>These election results suggest the movement’s efforts in laying the groundwork for cultural change and shifting the social discourse has enabled many Americans to disentangle “gun control” from “anti gun,” and to simultaneously support both the right to bear arms and reasonable restrictions on that right. The movement’s success in doing so has made supporting gun control possible for today’s politicians.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113301/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Gun control bills passed recently by the House of Representatives may never become law, but they are still a sign of important change.Aimee Dinnín Huff, Assistant Professor, Marketing, Oregon State UniversityMichelle Barnhart, Associate Professor of Marketing, Oregon State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1139122019-03-21T18:53:46Z2019-03-21T18:53:46ZWhat Parkland’s experience tells us about the limits of a ‘security’ response to Christchurch<p>In the days before the <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/christchurch-mosque-shootings-67899">mass shootings in Christchurch</a> I was visiting Parkland, Florida, where 17 people were killed in a <a href="https://theconversation.com/school-shootings-prompted-protests-debates-about-best-ways-to-keep-students-safe-5-essential-reads-108976">school shooting</a> on Valentine’s Day 2018. I was recording a story about how those survivors and their allies <a href="https://theconversation.com/march-for-our-lives-was-about-far-more-than-students-and-gun-control-93893">built a global movement against gun violence</a>. I met students, teachers and supporters.</p>
<p>These American students knew all about Australia’s gun laws. “How did you get such strong laws?” they would ask. And I would tell them about the Port Arthur massacre and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-arguments-that-carried-australias-1996-gun-law-reforms-58431">how our conservative prime minister acted</a>. “We haven’t had a gun massacre since,” I proclaimed. Days later, I felt shame at my hubris – an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-16/christchurch-shootings-brendon-tarrant-court-murder-charge/10907946">Australian has been charged</a> with the shootings at two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/parkland-shooting-one-year-later-congress-still-avoids-action-on-gun-control-111796">Parkland shooting: One year later, Congress still avoids action on gun control</a>
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<h2>Lessons from a ‘high-security’ suburb</h2>
<p>We have so much to learn from Parkland. And it’s not simply how they <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-must-not-punish-content-creators-in-our-rush-to-regulate-social-platforms-96270">built a remarkable social movement</a>. Some lessons become visible only when you actually see the place.</p>
<p>Parkland is a suburb close to the Everglades, 30 minutes from the beach and an hour north of Miami. It is a wealthy, majority-white neighbourhood. But the thing that overwhelmed me when I was driving around is that it is a gated community. </p>
<p>The entire suburb is broken up into large blocks, and at the centre of each block is a single entrance for cars. The road has a security hut, large barriers stretching across and there is a large gate. You need a PIN code to go inside. </p>
<p>When you go through, the homes and streets are beautiful. Green grass, and every home has one of those white mailboxes with a red flag that turns up when the mail arrives. </p>
<p>These gated communities tell you something. Parents choose to live behind walls to create a nice way to live and keep their family safe.</p>
<p>But in Parkland all that security didn’t keep them safe. Darkness found a new way in – and everyone is still feeling the murderous pain.</p>
<p>The limits of security and walls offer a profound lesson for us in Australia as we work out how to respond to the terrorism in Christchurch. Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants to lock up our places of worship – particularly mosques. He wants police with guns and security checks. It’s like he wants to build religious gated communities. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/morrison-announces-55-million-for-security-at-religious-premises-and-warns-against-tribalism-113746">Morrison announces $55 million for security at religious premises and warns against “tribalism”</a>
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<p>This approach is consistent with his other policies – <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-next-australian-government-can-balance-security-and-compassion-for-asylum-seekers-110713">use the navy to stop boats, use cages to stop refugees</a>. Our prime minister has only one register – security.</p>
<p>But if Parkland showed anything, it’s that gated communities don’t stop violence. The violence just moves and shifts. An aggressive security response might make you “feel” safer, but it doesn’t make you safe. </p>
<p>At the same time, security heightens the tension. And it does nothing to deal with the causes of the violence.</p>
<p>So how do we respond to the causes of the violence? In Parkland, the main issue was access to guns. The <a href="https://marchforourlives.com/">March for Our Lives</a> students called this out quickly. They gained traction because they bravely and forcefully condemned the National Rifle Association for creating the context for mass shootings – easy access to guns. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/we-must-not-punish-content-creators-in-our-rush-to-regulate-social-platforms-96270">We must not punish content creators in our rush to regulate social platforms</a>
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<h2>It started with the demonisation of others</h2>
<p>Our context is different. The issue in Christchurch <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-overhauling-nzs-gun-and-terrorism-laws-alone-cant-stop-terrorist-attacks-113706">was about guns, yes, but equally it was about motive</a>. As Australians, one of our citizens “radicalised” themselves to such a point that they massacred other people. How did this happen?</p>
<p>White supremacy. OK, but how do we unpack white supremacy? Who emboldened this? Who made it OK to demonise Muslims – to say they don’t belong?</p>
<p>First, people looked to <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/demonised-constantly-australian-muslims-slam-politicians-media-in-wake-of-nz-attacks">Pauline Hanson and Fraser Anning</a>. The social movement around <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-19/teen-who-egged-fraser-anning-wont-be-making-police-complaints/10916722">#EggBoy</a> shows people’s anger at extremism. </p>
<p>But it’s more than that. Murdoch news media have been running a crusade against Muslims for years. The Coalition has brutalised Muslims and refugees for votes since September 11 2001. And the Labor Party has given bipartisan support to the offshore detention of predominantly Muslim refugees.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/christchurch-attacks-are-a-stark-warning-of-toxic-political-environment-that-allows-hate-to-flourish-113662">Christchurch attacks are a stark warning of toxic political environment that allows hate to flourish</a>
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<h2>Come together in love to overcome hate</h2>
<p>But knowing who prosecutes hate is not enough. Hate can’t drive out hate. As Martin Luther King junior said, only love can do that. </p>
<p>How do we bring love into our work to stop race being used as a divisive power? I wish I had the answer. But I do know that building love is something that can happen everywhere all the time – not just at vigils or special services. </p>
<p>Can we build a movement that would <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AmplifyLove?src=hash">amplify love</a> at work, in our community, in our schools, where we have intentional conversations to talk about what Christchurch meant and why the Muslim community was targeted?</p>
<p>The Muslim community are in pain. We – especially white people like me and some of you – have to do the heavy lifting on this one. We can take the lead on doing something about white supremacy and dividing people by race and religion.</p>
<p>Imagine if we could take the pain of this moment and turn it into a real reckoning for our country. For as long as white people have stood in Australia we have caused harm to others. But too often we shrug off responsibility through phrases like “<a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-morrison-s-preferred-m-word-is-migrant-rather-than-multicultural-20190118-p50s6j.html">the most successful multicultural country in the world</a>”. Or we get scared off the conversation by phrases like the “<a href="https://theconversation.com/australias-history-wars-reignite-57065">history wars</a>”. </p>
<p>Yes, the shock jocks will berate and the trolls will yell. But let’s have them yell at white people taking on white supremacy instead of Muslim and other leaders of colour.</p>
<p>It’s time to act. The election is one place – we need to vote for leaders who stand with Muslims because “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/15/one-of-new-zealands-darkest-days-jacinda-ardern-responds-to-christchurch-shooting">they are us</a>”. </p>
<p>But this is more than just electoral politics. It’s about a movement committed to connection, understanding, listening, respect and love. And that’s love as a verb, love as action.</p>
<p>A year after the mass shooting, Parkland is still a torn community. Many are still deeply active in social movements pushing for gun law reform. And <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/parkland-victims-remembered-in-silence-one-year-on-from-shooting/10814754">many others are still healing</a>. </p>
<p>In Parkland the lesson is that they were forever changed, not because of the hate that was inflicted, but because of the love they cultivated in response.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/113912/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Tattersall is the host of the ChangeMakers podcast, which tells stories about people trying to change the world. She is also a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the University of Sydney as part of the Organising the 21st Century City Project funded by the Halloran Trust. Previously she co-founded GetUp! and founded the Sydney Alliance.</span></em></p>Parkland, Florida, where 17 people died in a school shooting on Valentine’s Day 2018, was already a place of highly secure, gated communities, so the survivors instead united against guns and hate.Amanda Tattersall, Postdoc in urban geography and Research Lead at Sydney Policy Lab. Host of ChangeMakers Podcast., University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1117962019-02-13T18:09:56Z2019-02-13T18:09:56ZParkland shooting: One year later, Congress still avoids action on gun control<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/258808/original/file-20190213-181619-3tsm9t.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The "March for Our Lives" rally in support of gun control on March 24, 2018 in Washington, DC.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/YE-Year-End-Top-News-Photos/2d81c882f327407d8447fe220cd52ffb/9/0">AP/Alex Brandon</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One year after the deadly mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, <a href="https://projects.newsday.com/databases/long-island/gun-laws-in-2018/">Florida and a handful of states have passed stricter gun laws</a>, but little has changed with the federal government’s firearms policy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/25/politics/cnn-poll-gun-control-support-climbs/index.html">Polls conducted after the Florida shooting</a> showed that a majority of Americans supported stronger gun laws – including tighter restrictions on purchases and a ban on assault weapons – in the wake of the shooting.</p>
<p>Students demanded that elected officials <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/santa-fe-high-school-shooting-texas-parkland-students-express-outrage-today-2018-05-18/">“do something,”</a> and many adults echoed that sentiment.</p>
<p>But policy does not always <a href="https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/79/1/204/2330083">follow public opinion</a>. Why are the public’s pleas on this and other issues ignored? </p>
<p>I’m a pollster and a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=ZshFjR4AAAAJ&hl=en">political scientist</a> who has <a href="https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781461637165/Guns-Gun-Control-and-Elections-The-Politics-and-Policy-of-Firearms">examined the issue</a> from <a href="https://www.abc-clio.com/ABC-CLIOCorporate/product.aspx?pc=A4733C">different</a> perspectives. </p>
<p>I’ve found three major reasons that policy does not always follow public opinion: the structure of the U.S. government, the overlooked complexities of public opinion and the influence of voters and interest groups.</p>
<h2>Citizens don’t make policy</h2>
<p>First, the United States is a republic, not a direct democracy. Citizens choose representatives who make policy decisions; citizens do not make those decisions directly. The Founders, who were not all <a href="http://www.pbs.org/thinktank/show_1124.html">fans of democracy</a> and feared mob rule, established our governmental structure over 200 years ago, and those <a href="http://www.thisnation.com/question/011.html">foundations</a> remain today. </p>
<p>While about half the states have some form of <a href="http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/chart-of-the-initiative-states.aspx">initiative or referendum process</a> to allow voters to directly enact policy, there is no such provision in the U.S. Constitution. And for those who advocate the repeal of the Second Amendment as a way to restrict gun ownership in the U.S., that’s not accomplished <a href="https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/constitution">directly by citizens</a>, either. Such changes would have to be voted on by elected representatives in Congress and legislatures across the country.</p>
<p>The composition and rules of Congress are also crucial, especially in the Senate, where each state has two votes. By design, this <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/11/us/politics/small-state-advantage.html">allocation of senators</a> disproportionately represents the interests of less populous states. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208923/original/file-20180305-146645-1hmwjty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/208923/original/file-20180305-146645-1hmwjty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208923/original/file-20180305-146645-1hmwjty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208923/original/file-20180305-146645-1hmwjty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=387&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208923/original/file-20180305-146645-1hmwjty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208923/original/file-20180305-146645-1hmwjty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/208923/original/file-20180305-146645-1hmwjty.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=486&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The founding fathers gave us a republic, not a direct democracy.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Architect of the Capitol</span></span>
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<p>So California and New York, the first and fourth largest states and ones that favor stricter gun laws, comprise about 18 percent of the population of the United States but only 4 percent of the senators. Alaska, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Idaho, which tend to favor gun rights, comprise about 2 percent of the population and 12 percent of the Senate. </p>
<p>The House of Representatives, where each state is guaranteed at least one representative, also <a href="https://medium.com/@itsjoekent/congress-is-tilted-to-benefit-small-states-3c1b4116a00a">advantages lower-population</a> states, albeit to a much lesser extent. The House is also subject to the partisan drawing of districts which has advantaged Republicans – who tend to support gun rights – since the 2010 Census.</p>
<p>The ubiquitous use of the filibuster, which can allow a Senate minority to <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-right-about-one-thing-the-us-senate-should-end-its-60-vote-majority-88761">block majority-supported legislation</a> means most substantive legislation <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-right-about-one-thing-the-us-senate-should-end-its-60-vote-majority-88761">must get 60 votes</a> in the Senate to pass. In a closely divided Senate, 60 votes are almost impossible to muster. </p>
<p>In addition, national sentiment is not mirrored in every state or congressional district. </p>
<h2>Policy often doesn’t follow polling</h2>
<p>Second: Polling and public opinion are not as straightforward as they seem.
Focusing on only one or two poll questions can distort the public’s views regarding gun control.</p>
<p>Polling numbers generally show <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/25/politics/cnn-poll-gun-control-support-climbs/index.html">strong support</a> for gun control measures such as universal background checks and an assault weapons ban.</p>
<p>Simultaneously, <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/gun_control/americans_aren_t_convinced_stricter_gun_control_laws_will_decrease_violent_crime">most Americans think</a> that additional gun control measures won’t reduce violent crime. This is not surprising because <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/gun_control/americans_blame_government_more_than_guns_for_florida_massacre">most Americans don’t blame</a> guns for these tragedies. </p>
<p>We should also keep in mind that gun control is not the only issue in which policy does not follow opinion. Other such <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/when-public-opinion-on-policy-is-driven-by-misconceptions-refute-them/">issues</a> include <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/special-feature-a-history-of-american-public-opinion-on-foreign-aid-90732">foreign aid</a> and <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/10/04/most-gop-lawmakers-support-banning-late-term-abortions-and-so-do-a-lot-of-women/?utm_term=.6852d9988e5d">abortion</a>. </p>
<p>And policy that reflects the “will of the people” may collide with legitimate legal constraints. Crafting legislation that disqualifies those we all agree should not possess firearms but protects the rights of law-abiding citizens is quite difficult. </p>
<p>For example, the <a href="https://www.aclu.org/blog/disability-rights/gun-control-laws-should-be-fair">American Civil Liberties Union opposed</a> an order that would have prevented Social Security recipients with mental disabilities who have others managing their benefits from purchasing firearms. “Assault weapons” are difficult to define – and thus legally ban – because semi-automatic rifles can be used for <a href="https://www.fieldandstream.com/four-great-semi-automatic-rifles-for-deer-hunting">hunting, too,</a> as can <a href="http://www.gameandfishmag.com/guns-shooting/10-best-hunting-ars/">AR-style rifles</a>, although they are not commonly used for that purpose.</p>
<h2>People vote, not polls</h2>
<p>Finally, the influence of voters and interest groups can counteract the influence of the majority’s opinion in swaying policy.</p>
<p>Who votes matters. Gun owners <a href="http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/06/22/views-on-gun-policy/">are more likely</a> than non-owners to vote based on the issue of gun control, to have contacted an elected official about gun rights, and to have contributed money to an organization that takes a position on gun control. </p>
<p>Such differing rates of political activity are to be expected because many gun owners fear their rights are or will be restricted, and that drives them to the polls. But the frequent appearances of gun control advocates in the news can lead to the erroneous impression that they are more passionate than gun rights supporters.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209160/original/file-20180306-146694-g0bl8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/209160/original/file-20180306-146694-g0bl8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209160/original/file-20180306-146694-g0bl8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209160/original/file-20180306-146694-g0bl8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209160/original/file-20180306-146694-g0bl8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209160/original/file-20180306-146694-g0bl8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/209160/original/file-20180306-146694-g0bl8l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wayne LaPierre, the CEO of the National Rifle Association, at the annual conservative political conference in late February 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP/Jacquelyn Martin</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The National Rifle Association is a critical player in this discussion. In some ways a victim of its own success, the gun owners’ rights group is thought by many to have outsized power that it wields indiscriminately. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nras-financial-weakness-explained-108582">In the last year, however</a>, the organization’s <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2018/09/nra-in-the-red-for-2nd-straight-year/">finances and membership have diminished</a>. </p>
<p>Its critics have called it a <a href="https://www.theroot.com/the-nra-is-a-terrorist-organization-1823042189">terrorist organization</a> with <a href="https://www.salon.com/2013/12/17/the_second_amendment_holier_to_nra_than_thou_shalt_not_kill_partner/">blood on its hands</a> and legislators who support gun rights have been referred to as “NRA-complicit <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/2/20/1739860/-FIGHT-THESE-NRA-COMPLICIT-BLOODY-HANNDED-MASS-MURDER-ENABLERS-RESIST">bloody hannded</a> (sic) mass murder enablers.”</p>
<p>At the major national annual conference for conservatives in February 2018, known as CPAC, NRA Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre responded to that criticism by talking about a “<a href="https://www.npr.org/2018/02/22/587911457/nra-leader-warns-conservatives-of-socialist-wave-in-wake-of-shooting">socialist agenda.”</a> He said NRA critics and “the elite” wanted to “eradicate all individual freedoms.” </p>
<p>The rhetoric is toxic, and both sides are guilty. </p>
<p>Whatever power the NRA possesses is a result of its membership and their votes. It claims <a href="https://home.nra.org/about-the-nra/">approximately 5 million members</a>, who pay attention to the group’s candidate ratings and generally vote accordingly. </p>
<p>Many others who are not members also agree with the group as evidenced by its <a href="http://news.gallup.com/poll/186284/despite-criticism-nra-enjoys-majority-support.aspx">consistent “favorable” ratings</a>, typically measured in the 50 percent-plus range. Support for stricter gun laws typically increases after a mass shooting, but it tends to revert back to the trend line over time.</p>
<p>Elected officials want votes. There is no doubt that money is essential for political campaigns, but votes, not money or polls, are what determine elections. If a group can supply votes, then it has power. As such, the NRA is <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/24/us/politics/nra-gun-control-florida.html">very powerful</a> in some parts of the country and quite weak in others.</p>
<p>Many factors influence how legislation is drafted, amended, enacted and implemented. Searching for a direct causal connection from public opinion to specific policies, including gun control, may be akin to a search for the holy grail. </p>
<p>Our elected officials care more about the opinions of those who vote for them than what the nation as a whole thinks. On most issues they represent the interests of the majority of voters in their districts – or they get voted out of office. </p>
<p><em>This is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-polls-say-people-want-gun-control-why-doesnt-congress-just-pass-it-92569">an article</a> originally published on March 7, 2018.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111796/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Harry L. Wilson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Despite impassioned pleas for gun control legislation after 2018’s mass shooting at a Florida high school, Congress has failed to pass meaningful reform. Why doesn’t policy follow public opinion?Harry L. Wilson, Professor of Public Affairs, Roanoke CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.