tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/paul-nuttall-19108/articlesPaul Nuttall – The Conversation2017-06-09T07:20:55Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/788832017-06-09T07:20:55Z2017-06-09T07:20:55ZUKIP faces a difficult future after voters deserted Britain’s Brexit party<p>The UK Independence Party, which campaigned for Britain’s departure from the European Union, has collapsed in the country’s general election. The party that two years ago secured <a href="http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7186">more than 4m votes and 12% of the vote</a> – has been reduced to a small fraction of this. It lost its only seat, in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000642">Clacton</a>, to the Conservatives, with under 2% of the vote share overall. Even its leader, Paul Nuttall, managed only <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000582">7.7% of the vote</a> in Boston and Skegness.</p>
<p>This was not an unexpected development. Since the last general election, UKIP has had to deal with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/having-divided-and-conquered-nigel-farage-makes-a-perfectly-timed-exit-62012">loss of Nigel Farage</a>, its charismatic and highly visible leader, and the loss of its defining policy goal – leaving the European Union. As was clear at the time of <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/08/26/is-there-still-a-point-to-ukip-the-future-of-british-euroscepticism-post-brexit/">last year’s referendum</a>, the party was going to have to undergo a major reinvention to demonstrate its continuing relevance to the broad coalition of supporters that it had built up.</p>
<p>While this was not an impossible task, it was made all the more difficult by the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38125432">poor handling</a> of finding a successor to Farage, and then by the calling of a snap general election. Nuttall, who wanted to build on the success of the party in Labour heartlands, simply lacked any time to get his message bedded down with the electorate.</p>
<p>As a result, UKIP has lost not only its groundswell of support, but also its representation in the Commons, soon to be joined by their longstanding base of operations in the European Parliament, which has given it both credibility and financing.</p>
<h2>Proven resilience</h2>
<p>But the history of the party should give pause for thought, before we write it off. On several occasions before now, UKIP suffered very strong reversals of fortune and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-31923185/ukip-history-from-sked-to-kilroy-silk-and-farage">deep internal splits</a>. While bitterly fought, none of these situations brought about UKIP’s collapse. Therefore the key question is whether this time will be any different.</p>
<p>On the one hand, the removal of the EU issue is a real blow to activists. UKIP has never had an ideological core: instead it has attracted the disillusioned and the disaffected from across the political spectrum, especially in those parts of society that feel left behind by other political parties. Taking away one of the few things that was broadly agreed – that the EU is a bad thing – gives even less common ground to share.</p>
<p>Farage’s departure highlights the lack of credible and visible faces in the party: it was a mark of his time as leader that any such challenges to his dominance were kept firmly to one side. Even if <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/09/brexit-nigel-farage-referendum-politics-uk-election-result-may-corbyn.html">he were willing to return once more</a> to his role, there has been something of a changing of the guard at the top of the party, which might mean they would not want him back – even with <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/paul-nuttall-resigns-ukip-leader-election-results-2017-a7781306.html">the sudden vacancy in the top job</a>. Nuttall was not been able to build the same charismatic bond so far with voters or the media, which has tended to focus attention back on the policies of the party.</p>
<p>And there is a financial dimension to all this. The impending loss of EU funding (via its representation in the European Parliament) means that UKIP will be relying more than ever on member contributions and big donors. With membership falling sharply since last year, and several donors looking to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/14/ukip-donor-arron-banks-says-he-has-quit-party-to-set-up-ukip-20">move on</a>, there has to be a question mark over whether already-curtailed operations can continue.</p>
<p>But it is important to remember that UKIP’s success was built not on the personality of Farage, but on the widespread sense of dissatisfaction with other parties. There clearly remains much potential within the electorate for a more populist agenda; something that is likely to increase as the practical difficulties and implications of Brexit become more evident in the months and years to come. If UKIP can ride out this current storm and reestablish itself as a viable avenue for protest, then it stands a chance of making this just one more bump in the road of its development.</p>
<h2>Stern tests ahead</h2>
<p>This suggests a look at three key elements in the coming weeks.</p>
<p>First, is there a leadership in place that can provide a stable focus for the party as an organisation? Having suffered a number of defections in the past year, are there other senior figures packing their bags, or are there splits over who should lead? Nuttall’s departure provides an obvious scapegoat for the big downturn in support, but as was apparent last year, there is a shortage of candidates to step into the breach.</p>
<p>Second, can the party communicate a clear set of policies to voters, to demonstrate its relevance? Nuttall’s project to tap into old Labour areas looked promising – although pickings in the general election were thin – but if this is to continue under the next leader then it requires buy-in from the rest of the leadership and a recognition that such a refocus might alienate some of the current, more right-wing parts of the support base.</p>
<p>And third, will there be enough money to keep UKIP afloat? This is less urgent, but the party will need to show relatively quickly that it can still attract some high-profile donors to its cause, if only as a backstop to the coming tightening of finances. This also matters to show the Westminster bubble that UKIP still counts for something.</p>
<p>This is not game over for UKIP, but it will be as stern a test as it has ever faced.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Usherwood receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, as a Research Investigator on the "UK in a Changing Europe" programme. He sits on the academic advisory board of Modern Europe. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of the research councils. </span></em></p>The party lost its seat in parliament and polled less than two per cent of the vote.Simon Usherwood, Reader in Politics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/787812017-06-07T11:45:36Z2017-06-07T11:45:36ZFact Check: are only one in eight counter-terrorism referrals to Prevent made by Muslims?<blockquote>
<p>We need to get the Muslim community itself to sign up to the Prevent programme. Only one out of eight referrals to Prevent come from within the Muslim community. </p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Paul Nuttall, leader of UKIP, speaking during the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b08t0l7v/bbc-election-debate-2017-live-with-mishal-husain">BBC Election Debate</a> on May 31.</strong></p>
<p>Paul Nuttall’s comment about the number of referrals under the government’s counter-terrorism strategy, <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prevent-strategy-2011">Prevent</a>, used a statistic that was incorrectly quoted and dropped into the debate without context. The only publicly available statistic – quoted in <a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/muslims-stay-silent-on-extremism-tip-off-scheme-r8mjg3ncg0j">The Times</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/25/prevent-programme-lacking-referrals-from-muslim-community">The Guardian</a> in December 2015 – stated that out of 3,288 referrals to the Prevent programme in the first half of 2015, only 280 or 8.6% came from within the Muslim “community, family, friends and faith leaders”. Using Nuttall’s comparison, this would make it one in 12 referrals. </p>
<p>The figures were provided by the National Police Chief’s Council (NPCC) in response to a freedom of information request and refer to the first half of 2015. They are not official published government data. Other information is <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/counter-terrorism-statistics">held</a> by the Home Office on the gender, age, ethnicity and religion of people arrested under counter-terrorism legislation, but it does not publish data on those who make the referrals. </p>
<p>When I asked the NPCC, its press office stated that: “Those figures were given out under freedom of information requests” – but the information provided cannot be found on the relevant <a href="http://www.npcc.police.uk/FreedomofInformation/FOIandSubjectAccessRequests/FOIDisclosureLogs.aspx">part of its website</a>. </p>
<p>It should also be noted that referrals are made in line with Prevent legislation to the police, MI5, and on the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/report-terrorism">online anti-extremism website</a>, and not to what Nuttall calls the “Prevent programme”. If an individual is deemed vulnerable to all types of extremism and terrorism, they may be referred to what’s called the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/channel-guidance">Channel</a> programme. Between 2007 and 2014, other <a href="http://www.npcc.police.uk/FreedomofInformation/NationalChannelReferralFigures.aspx">data published by the NPCC</a> indicates there have been a total of 3,934 referrals to Channel and that 56% of those referred between April 2012 and March 2014 were recorded as Muslims.</p>
<p>UKIP were contacted twice for comment by The Conversation about Nuttall’s claim, but didn’t respond.</p>
<h2>Missing context</h2>
<p>Nuttall’s claim also misses much of the context surrounding the available statistics. It is not clear how the religion of the person making the referral to the Prevent programme was determined. The Times article assumes that “community, family and friends” will be, by default, Muslims. However, use of the terms “community” and “friends” indicates a wider pool of informants. </p>
<p>The statistics also have to be considered within the context of the number of Muslims that can potentially report radicalisation, extremism and terrorism. If 8.6% of all referrals did come from the local community, this represents a high number of reports coming from the Muslim population, as the <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/culturalidentity/religion/articles/religioninenglandandwales2011/2012-12-11">2011 census</a> states that Muslims make up only 5% of the British population. </p>
<p>But looking at the number of referrals made to the Prevent programme is not indicative of its success or failure. Salman Abedi, who detonated a suicide bomb in Manchester in late May, was <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/24/security-services-missed-five-opportunities-stop-manchester/">reported to authorities</a> on several occasions by members of his community and friends, but this did not prevent the attack. Further focus needs to be placed on the intelligence processes.</p>
<p>However, there has been a marked deterioration in attitudes towards the Prevent strategy. A 2011 NPCC report <a href="https://news.npcc.police.uk/releases/new-research-indicates-muslim-communities-welcome-engagement">stated</a> that “Muslims welcome engagement”, but increasing terror attacks have caused some to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/17/society-of-mosques-to-boycott-anti-terror-prevent-programme">question</a> Prevent amid claims it is targeting Muslims.</p>
<p>Another NPCC research <a href="http://www.npcc.police.uk/ACT%20Campaign/NPCC%20Counter%20Terrorism%20Research%20Key%20Findings.pdf">report</a> on counter-terrorism published in January 2017 highlighted concerns raised by Muslims and other ethnic minorities over anonymity and fear of unfair treatment by the police. Growing disdain has been shown for the continuing need for the Muslim population to apologise for terrorist attacks, when the rise of the far-right has not stimulated the same response. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>The statistics quoted by Nuttall are incorrect, misleading and divisive. By claiming that Muslims are not doing enough he implies that the Muslim population knows more than they are letting on and are able to do something about it. This is not an internal problem for Muslims alone. Placing the responsibility of reporting suspicion on the Muslim population demonises them and makes them the only actors responsible for stopping future attacks.</p>
<p>Understanding that Muslims – like any other group, religious or secular – are part of the larger population will help to contextualise any statistics provided on their participation in counter-terrorism programmes. Assumptions that the Muslim community is cohesive and aware of the actions of every other Muslim must also be dispelled. </p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p><strong>Sarah Marsden, lecturer in politics, philosophy and religion, University of Lancaster</strong></p>
<p>The author is right to point out the difficulty in unpacking the statistics on the Prevent policy and its implementation. A primary source of information on Prevent referrals comes from freedom of information requests. These respond to specific queries rather than systematically reporting data. This makes it difficult to make sense of a complex picture, and allows people like Paul Nuttall to make political capital against a backdrop of unclear information.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, there are more up-to-date figures than the article suggests. More <a href="http://www.npcc.police.uk/Publication/NPCC%20FOI/CT/043%2016%20NPCC%20response%20att%2001%20of%2001%2014042016.pdf">recent statistics</a> suggest that as many as 10,250 people have been referred to Channel between 2007 and March 2016. Approximately 70% of these are for what is defined as “international (Islamist) extremism”. Of these, the <a href="http://www.npcc.police.uk/Publication/NPCC%20FOI/CT/097%2016%20Channel%20Referrals.doc">majority</a> have been referred by statutory bodies, and notably, over 4,800 have come from the education sector. However, it is not clear what role individuals outside of these institutions play in what is a maturing system for managing <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-happens-to-people-who-are-suspected-of-being-radicalised-53652">Channel referrals</a>. For example, a parent may tell the person at a school who is responsible for Prevent that they are concerned about a child. The referral may then be taken forward by the school, but its origin would have been from a member of the community.</p>
<p>But the author is right to challenge the assumptions that sit beneath Nuttall’s criticism of Muslim communities. Placing responsibility for reporting those who may be involved in terrorism with Muslim communities is deeply divisive. It overlooks the responsibility we all share to prevent terrorism, and the not insignificant challenges facing efforts to identify those who may be “at risk” of radicalisation. It also risks stigmatising Muslims, many of whom are distrustful of Prevent because of the perception that it unfairly targets their communities. Indeed, this scepticism may be a more powerful explanation for reporting patterns than any unwillingness to take responsibility for community safety.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78781/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We asked two academics to check the claim made by UKIP leader Paul Nuttall.Sameera M. Khalfey, Research Fellow in Defence, University of PortsmouthLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/786912017-06-06T15:50:55Z2017-06-06T15:50:55ZFact Check: do the niqab and burqa prevent intake of vitamin D from sunlight?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172241/original/file-20170605-31047-4kjmn9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Group of women wearing burqas.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7120404">Nitin Madhav/Wikimedia Commons</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>UKIP would like to ban the burqa and niqab being worn in public because <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39693154">it says</a> they “are barriers to integration”. However, UKIP is also concerned about the health of women who wear these garments as – according to its <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/3944/attachments/original/1495695469/UKIP_Manifesto_June2017opt.pdf?1495695469">manifesto</a> – they prevent the “intake of essential vitamin D from sunlight”. As part of The Conversation’s Fact Check series, we asked two academics to check the science behind the claim.</em></p>
<p>The niqab and burqa, worn for cultural or religious reasons, cover the wearer’s body and face. They are made of opaque material that greatly reduces the amount of sunlight reaching the skin and hence the amount of vitamin D that the body can generate. However, this is not a problem as vitamin D needs can be satisfied by <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK56070/pdf/Bookshelf_NBK56070.pdf">diet and supplementation alone</a>. </p>
<p>There are a number of peculiar aspects of vitamin D that are necessary to understand so that deficiency is avoided.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.nhs.uk/Conditions/vitamins-minerals/Pages/Vitamin-D.aspx">Vitamin D, the “sunshine vitamin”</a>, is unusual among vitamins. All other vitamins can only be obtained from diet, but vitamin D can also be made in the body. Synthesis by the body is dependent on a step requiring sunlight, specifically ultraviolet (UV) light reaching the skin. Without sunlight on the skin, little vitamin D will be made by the body.</p>
<p>For many reasons, people may not get enough sunlight. This can be because of the clothing they wear, because they have darker skin, because their jobs keep them inside, because they live at latitudes where the sun remains low in the sky, or because they purposefully keep out of the sun because of the known dangers of excessive sun exposure, namely skin cancer. <a href="http://ajcn.nutrition.org/content/72/3/690.full.pdf+html">Obesity</a> also decreases the ability of the body to use vitamin D. Clearly, there are many reasons why vitamin D deficiency may occur.</p>
<p>But restricting sunlight does not cause a problem if a person gets enough vitamin D from their diet or supplementation (vitamin D pills). There are high levels of vitamin D in foods such as oily fish, and smaller amounts in liver and egg. In some countries, foods, such as breakfast cereals and milk, are fortified with vitamin D. If a person doesn’t get much sunlight, they will need to consume enough foods high in vitamin D or take vitamin D supplements. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172437/original/file-20170606-3686-129ti6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/172437/original/file-20170606-3686-129ti6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172437/original/file-20170606-3686-129ti6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172437/original/file-20170606-3686-129ti6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172437/original/file-20170606-3686-129ti6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172437/original/file-20170606-3686-129ti6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/172437/original/file-20170606-3686-129ti6z.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">You can avoid vitamin D deficiency by taking supplements.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cod-liver-oil-omega-3-gel-142484191?src=pd-same_artist-142484185-ZTeHxwWkVIsy2kwauC88Ig-1">R_Szatkowski/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Without vitamin D, serious health problems are inevitable. Vitamin D is essential to control the correct levels of calcium in the body, necessary for good bone health. Deficiency of this vitamin is the cause of bone weakening and deformities, such as <a href="http://www.nhs.uk/conditions/Rickets/Pages/Introduction.aspx">rickets in children and osteomalacia in adults</a>.</p>
<p>Rickets are a problem in <a href="https://theconversation.com/vitamin-d-needed-to-fight-comeback-of-childhood-rickets-19729">many parts of the world</a>, including places with an abundance of sun but where people are not exposed to enough sunlight. Vitamin D deficiency occurs in countries where wearing of the niqab and burqa is prevalent, such as <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4949819/">Saudi Arabia</a>, but also in countries like <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2265.2011.04320.x/abstract;jsessionid=7041A7D96DFB1370FF8D9E103D96D5BC.f03t03">Australia</a> where sun exposure is reduced for other reasons, such as effective public health campaigns about skin cancer. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>The niqab and burqa do prevent the intake of vitamin D from sunlight. But problems only occur when the person is unaware of the potential damage due to lack of sunlight and does not redress this by increasing their vitamin D intake through diet or supplements.</p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p><em>Zaki Hassan-Smith, honorary senior research fellow, University of Birmingham</em></p>
<p>I agree with the author’s analysis. Setting the claim in the context of scientific evidence here is important for a meaningful examination of the manifesto claim. </p>
<p>Covering the skin is one of a number of risk factors for vitamin D deficiency, and, indeed, in the UK in winter there is <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sacn-vitamin-d-and-health-report">inadequate sunlight for vitamin D production</a>. In summer the level of exposure varies according to a number of factors from skin type, latitude, altitude to time of day. Most of the UK population is at risk of low vitamin D for <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28334220">some of the year</a>. If we extrapolate the findings of a recent European study, over <a href="http://ajcn.nutrition.org/content/103/4/1033.long">30m people in the UK</a> are estimated to have vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency. And our recent study of 116 UK-based healthy volunteers found that <a href="http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0170665">only 14%</a> had normal serum vitamin D concentrations. So, the premise of the UKIP statement that wearing a niqab or burqa is an important risk factor for vitamin D deficiency is questionable in settings such as the UK, as, for most of the year, no one else is making any vitamin D via their skin. </p>
<p>Recent guidance from NICE on the prevention of vitamin D deficiency recommends that those “at risk” should take daily vitamin D supplements. Evidence-based public health measures on vitamin D are welcome, and universal supplementation strategies in at risk groups <a href="http://adc.bmj.com/content/97/11/952.long">can be effective</a>. Nobody needs to suffer from vitamin D deficiency, regardless of what they wear.</p>
<p><em>The Conversation is checking claims made by public figures and in the public domain. Statements are checked by an academic with expertise in the area. A second academic expert then reviews an anonymous copy of the article. Please get in touch if you spot a claim you would like us to check by emailing us at uk-factcheck@theconversation.com. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We asked two experts to check a claim in the UKIP manifesto.Peter McCaffery, Professor of Biochemistry, University of AberdeenLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/783792017-05-26T16:25:51Z2017-05-26T16:25:51ZCut immigration and the UK’s economic prospects will just get worse – here’s why<p>After having arguably been one of the most powerful fear factors exploited by the Leave campaign during the EU referendum, the debate on immigration is continuing apace during the UK general election campaign. Given its central role in the campaign thus far, immigration will clearly continue to shape Brexit policy after June 8 – and free movement is likely to remain one of the UK government’s red lines in the forthcoming negotiations with the EU.</p>
<p>Anti-immigrant politicians often say they simply <a href="https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/08/britain-ready-mature-immigration-debate-theresa-may/">want a “debate”</a> on migration. Yet targets around net migration are being proposed without a rational debate about the country’s future economic needs. </p>
<p>As <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/37223e92-3319-11e7-bce4-9023f8c0fd2e">we have seen</a> in countries such as Germany and France over the past year, “political sentiment” is not a given – courageous political leadership can help shape that sentiment. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have both argued against hard immigration quotas as part of their election bids. As far as the UK is concerned, the facts are absolutely clear. Those of us who believe in the economic and social benefits of an open, welcoming society should not be shy about using them. </p>
<p>First, there is no evidence that EU immigration has damaged the living standards of UK workers. Jonathan Wadsworth and colleagues at the London School of Economics <a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit05.pdf">showed convincingly that</a> across UK local authorities from 2008-15, EU immigrants had no statistically significant impact on the real wages of UK-born workers. Neither did it affect the job prospects of low-skilled UK-born workers. </p>
<p>Second, the reduction in immigration will undoubtedly hit the country hard. The UK economy is effectively at full employment. What unemployment remains is <a href="http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=61365">mainly structural</a> due to mismatches in both skills and demand and supply in different regions. It can only be reduced gradually through training and greater investment in areas of higher unemployment. </p>
<p>Indeed, this is why EU immigration, particularly in low and medium-skills jobs, has increased over time: EU migrants are, by definition, more geographically mobile within the UK and prepared to move to where jobs are available or match the available skills. The <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39448424">hospitality</a> and <a href="http://ukandeu.ac.uk/migrant-labour-and-agriculture/">agricultural</a> sectors are cases in point. </p>
<p>Cutting immigration will therefore hold back the economy, as most economic commentators <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Er85u-DsU6M">agree</a>. This was an important part of predictions that GDP growth would be lower after Brexit. Lower growth will in turn mean fewer resources for public spending. The Office for Budget Responsibility in November 2016, on a reasonably benign interpretation of Brexit, <a href="http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/efo/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-november-2016/">duly projected</a> a shortfall in the UK’s public finances totalling about £5.9bn per year by 2020-21. </p>
<p>Third, these negative economic effects could be magnified for some parts of the UK. For many years Scotland’s <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/february2016">weaker population growth</a> relative to the UK has been a source of serious concern, affecting its ability to grow the economy. </p>
<p>In 2015 there were 181,000 non-UK EU nationals living in Scotland, which is 3.4% of the total population. Yet the 115,000 non-UK EU nationals aged 16 and over who were in employment in Scotland accounted for 4.5% of total employment. The upshot is that EU nationals have <a href="http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0051/00515360.pdf">higher employment rates in Scotland</a> compared to UK nationals for all age groups, except those aged 35 to 49 years old. </p>
<p>This means that if Scotland sees a significant decline in the number of EU nationals post-Brexit, it could hit the tax base severely and greatly limit the resources the Scottish parliament has at its disposal. The impact on the NHS, education and other core services might be profound. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171056/original/file-20170525-23224-15sr4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171056/original/file-20170525-23224-15sr4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/171056/original/file-20170525-23224-15sr4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171056/original/file-20170525-23224-15sr4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171056/original/file-20170525-23224-15sr4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171056/original/file-20170525-23224-15sr4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171056/original/file-20170525-23224-15sr4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/171056/original/file-20170525-23224-15sr4r8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Scottish parliament: budget cuts a-comin’</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/edinburgh-scotland-may-15-exterior-scottish-260679551">cornfield</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For London, the problem could be even greater. Its workforce has grown from 4.3m people in 2005 to just under 5.2m over the past ten years. Of these, 682,300 workers were born in the EU (13% of London’s total workforce). This has <a href="http://www.pwc.co.uk/legal/pdf/facing-facts-the-impact-of-migrants-on-london-its-workforce-and-economy.pdf">more than doubled</a> over the past ten years from 326,700, with a further 12% of London’s workforce made up of migrants from outside the EU.</p>
<p>In both places, despite the rhetoric in some of the popular press, EU migrants are economically very active – with around 65% in total in employment or studying. Financial services are obviously a major part of London’s economic strength, and 15% of people in the sector are EU nationals. Meanwhile, 13% of NHS doctors in London are EU nationals – and London has <a href="http://www.pwc.co.uk/legal/pdf/facing-facts-the-impact-of-migrants-on-london-its-workforce-and-economy.pdf">more than the UK average of 10%</a> of NHS staff posts unfilled, so EU workers’ importance can’t be minimised. </p>
<h2>Blame the others</h2>
<p>Undoubtedly, immigration has been the scapegoat for a feeling of alienation in UK society. Again, the data offers a clear explanation. Despite <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11900934/UK-GDP-growth-stronger-previously-though-recovery-ONS.html">GDP recovering</a> since the 2008 financial crisis, median real wages and living standards <a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea036.pdf">have declined</a> – performing poorly even <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/jul/27/uk-joins-greece-at-bottom-of-wage-growth-league-tuc-oecd">compared to</a> other European countries. As Rui Costa and Stephen Machin at the LSE <a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea036.pdf">note</a>: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>Since the global financial crisis of 2007/08, workers’ real wages and family living standards in the UK have suffered to an extent unprecedented in modern history … </p>
</blockquote>
<p>What is therefore incumbent on politicians during this election campaign is to address the issues which have caused this to happen: low productivity growth, a shift in the distribution of GDP from real wages to profits and the lack of a culture of investment (including in skills). Regrettably, the debate on how to boost productivity growth has been far less visible in the campaign so far. </p>
<p>As for immigration, there are two immediate conclusions. A clampdown on immigration with arbitrary targets that do not recognise our labour supply and skills needs is likely to reduce economic growth and thus will exacerbate, not heal, social tensions. </p>
<p>Second, there are different needs in the various parts of the UK. A different approach to the post-Brexit immigration regime for certain sectors and economies such as Scotland and London is therefore going to be essential. The Scottish parliament’s Culture, Tourism, Europe and External Relations Committee <a href="http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/CurrentCommittees/103394.aspx">pointed out</a> that other countries such as Canada, Australia and Switzerland have run differentiated systems of immigration. We should consider this seriously.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anton Muscatelli is chair of the Scottish government's Standing Council on Europe.</span></em></p>Immigration targets are based on a lack of understanding of the UK’s labour needs and could seriously damage the economy.Anton Muscatelli, Principal and Vice Chancellor, University of GlasgowLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/736132017-02-24T09:50:57Z2017-02-24T09:50:57ZStoke isn’t the end for UKIP – but the big problem it faces is now clear<p>Byelections are curious beasts in the political jungle. On the one hand, they are objectively minor political events: the replacement of a single MP for however long is left until the next general election. On the other, they become crucibles for bigger political debates; the national played out on a local stage.</p>
<p>So it was in Stoke Central in recent weeks. For the commentariat, here was the perfect counterpoint to the byelection in <a href="http://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-battle-of-richmond-what-will-it-mean-for-brexit/">Richmond</a> held in December. Richmond was a strongly pro-Remain constituency so when the Liberal Democrats won, a narrative could be built that their success reflected the divisions caused by the EU referendum. Stoke was an archetypal Leave constituency, the “Brexit capital of Britain”. As such, it was the ideal place for UKIP to shine and its new leader, Paul Nuttall, to be vindicated in his <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/26/interview-paul-nuttall-scouser-wants-lead-ukip-labours-turf/">new strategy</a> for the party.</p>
<p>The Stoke result, which saw the seat remain in Labour hands with a small swing away from UKIP, thus raises important questions for both Nuttall and those observing him. Is Stoke going to be UKIP’s graveyard?</p>
<p>First, let’s consider the big narrative that was applied to Stoke. Certainly, with nearly 70% of voters in the Leave camp last summer, the constituency looks to be the kind of place where UKIP could do well, given that it was the only national party to campaign wholeheartedly for exit from the European Union. Add in the generally high levels of dissatisfaction found in the town – as evidenced by low turnout in elections and the state of the local economy – and it is not hard to see why this feels like a classic “left-behind” part of the country, losing out on globalisation and modernisation.</p>
<p>UKIP played up to this, especially in the national media and in its choice of the party leader as candidate. Paul Nuttall isn’t Nigel Farage, either in style or in substance: a firm exponent of <a href="http://www.conservativehome.com/highlights/2014/12/the-five-tribes-of-ukip.html">“red UKIP”</a>, he sees the future of the party in supplanting Labour, rather than the Tories, in the political landscape. At a time when Jeremy Corbyn appears to be alienating more Labour supporters than he is winning over, this has looked like the most viable strategy for a party that needs to <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2016/08/17/is-there-still-a-point-to-ukip-the-future-of-british-euroscepticism-post-brexit/">reinvent</a> itself after securing its headline goal.</p>
<h2>Beyond Brexit</h2>
<p>And yet, as so often with big narratives, there are gaps and misinterpretations.
The most obvious is that Stoke was not contested over Brexit in the way that Richmond was. Indeed, neither Labour nor UKIP made much of the issue in their campaign literature or public statements, mainly because it wasn’t a topic on the doorstep. Instead, the debate was about public services and economic regeneration: Brexit was a given, by and large.</p>
<p>Equally obviously, the personalities of the two main candidates loomed very large in this byelection. Both Nuttall and his Labour opponent, Gareth Snell, were subject to intense media scrutiny over past actions and words, with neither emerging unsullied. In particular, Nuttall was marked out for his very <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/01/paul-nuttall-stoke-byelection-papers-gave-address-he-had-not-moved-into">limited connection</a> with the constituency and his <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-39038307">confused involvement</a> with the Hillsborough disaster. Where Farage might have been able to shrug off such points, Nuttall has much more limited political experience and little political capital to use.</p>
<p>Put differently, Nuttall was the wrong candidate for the seat. In UKIP’s long history, it has almost always struggled to address this problem. Indeed, it is worth noting that the only successful byelections came from two Tory defectors – <a href="https://blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2014/11/20/does-ukip-have-the-brains-bodies-and-legs-to-prosper/">Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless</a> – each with relatively strong local profiles and track records, as well as a more loose association with the party. Parachuting in an outsider might make sense for a party trying to get its bigger names into elected offices, but it <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17457289.2014.925461">plays badly</a> on the ground.</p>
<h2>Where now?</h2>
<p>Stoke Central looks very much like a missed opportunity for UKIP. Success here would have opened up a very much more credible line of attack for the party, especially since it would have made Corbyn’s position as Labour leader even more problematic. Even the poor turnout caused by Storm Doris should have played into the party’s hands, as more indifferent, moderate voters stayed at home. If the 2015 general election established a long list of second positions in constituencies for UKIP, then Stoke should have been an excellent opportunity to start converting these into first places.</p>
<p>But, then again, UKIP is nothing if not resilient. In the grand scheme of things, this defeat ranks well behind past failures. However, the big unanswered question is how the party responds now. Nuttall has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/ukip-paul-nuttall-not-going-anywhere-stoke-byelection-failure">indicated</a> that he will remain as leader – albeit with the unfortunate phrasing “I’m not going anywhere” – but as the past year has shown, the party is not above <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37561065">edging out</a> its leaders. In addition, there remains the Farage wildcard: talk abounds of him moving to form a <a href="http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/770880/Arron-Banks-Ukip-tipping-point-radical-survive">new movement</a> with UKIP’s erstwhile backer Arron Banks that could drain much of UKIP’s support base.</p>
<p>Stoke is thus not the end of UKIP, but it has thrown into stark relief the difficult position the party finds itself in.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/73613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Usherwood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The party picked the wrong candidate and the wrong tactics in this byelection, and it showed in the result.Simon Usherwood, Reader in Politics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/700152016-12-09T15:28:06Z2016-12-09T15:28:06ZConservative victory in Sleaford by-election cements fears of lost decade for Labour<p>For the Conservative Party, the by-election victory in Sleaford and North Hykeham on December 8 will have come as something of a relief after the surprise <a href="https://theconversation.com/heathrow-brexit-and-a-pointless-political-suicide-that-richmond-by-election-in-full-69808">Liberal Democrat win</a> in the Richmond by-election a week earlier.</p>
<p>Caroline Johnson won the by-election with a 53.5% share of the vote, only 2.7% lower than at the 2015 general election, a very credible performance given that turnout, at 37.1%, was barely half that of 2015. The new MP for Sleaford and North Hykeham immediately <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38258976">pledged</a> her loyalty to the prime minister. The by-election had been triggered when Conservative MP Stephen Phillips <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/04/stephen-phillips-resigns-over-undemocratic-brexit-process">resigned</a> criticising Theresa May’s handling of the Brexit process. </p>
<p>There was no repeat of the anti-Brexit sentiment in the Richmond by-election, but there was never likely to be one: in the North Kesteven district, which includes Sleaford, 62% <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028">voted to</a> leave the European Union in June 2016. </p>
<p>Given that the day before polling, MPs <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/07/mps-back-disclosure-of-brexit-plan-and-triggering-article-50-by-end-of-march">in parliament backed</a> the May government’s timetable for triggering Article 50 to begin negotiations for exiting the European Union by a majority of 461 to 89, there was little reason for discontent among Conservative Brexiteers to desert their party for UKIP.</p>
<p>May will be relieved that her wafer-thin parliamentary majority at Westminster has increased to 11 MPs. That will not alter the fact that her government’s room for manoeuvre, both in Article 50 negotiations and in relation to major domestic policy issues, will remain heavily constrained until May 2020 by a parliamentary party for <a href="https://www.psa.ac.uk/insight-plus/blog/most-rebellious-parliament-post-war-era">which rebellion</a> has now become commonplace, if not yet a contagion.</p>
<h2>UKIP lag far behind</h2>
<p>For the other political parties, there is little but cold comfort. UKIP’s novice leader Paul Nuttall <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38258976">described</a> his party’s second place finish as one “small step on a long road”, but their candidate Victoria Ayling’s 13.48% share of the vote left UKIP more than 40% behind the Conservatives. In a first-past-the-post electoral system, such Pyrrhic victories are of little long-term political consequence.</p>
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<p>Shorn of its political appeal by the May government’s commitment to Brexit and tough stance on immigration, UKIP has lost its principal weapons for recruiting disaffected MPs and voters. </p>
<p>Before the May 2017 mayoral elections in some of England’s major northern cities, Nuttall must decide whether there is any further mileage in playing UKIP’s traditional British nationalist card, or whether under his leadership it should seek to become an authentic English nationalist party.</p>
<h2>Labour fail to capitalise</h2>
<p>For the Labour Party, the by-elections in Richmond and Sleaford and North Hykeham were always going to be difficult campaigning territory. Nevertheless, Labour should have polled more votes. </p>
<p>Days before the vote, details were leaked of the controversial <a href="http://lincolnshirehealthandcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/STP-full-plan-061216-web.pdf">Lincolnshire Sustainability and Transformation Plans</a> to centralise and close certain NHS specialist services treasured by local communities, including downgrading of the Accident and Emergency Department at Grantham hospital near Sleaford to an Urgent Care Centre. Labour failed to capitalise on this growing crisis for the NHS in England. </p>
<p>In Sleaford and Hykeham, their candidate Jim Clarke may have saved his deposit by a comfortable margin, but at 10.24%, Labour’s share of the vote had declined by 7.02% since the 2015 general election.</p>
<p>Standing for the Lincolnshire Independents, a political party formed only in 2008 and with a localist, county-based agenda, Marianne Overton came within 472 votes of pushing Labour into fifth place.</p>
<p>This woeful electoral performance will only serve to reinforce the widespread scepticism about the capacity of Labour under leader Jeremy Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to mount an effective opposition at Westminster and beyond.</p>
<h2>Woes to come</h2>
<p>Not since the Great Depression of the 1930s have the working people of England so desperately needed a credible alternative to the failed politics of austerity which, according to the forecasts in the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/571559/autumn_statement_2016_web.pdf">2016 Autumn Statement</a>, will have added almost a trillion pounds to the national debt by May 2020.</p>
<p>In early December, the Joseph Rowntree Foundation <a href="https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/monitoring-poverty-and-social-exclusion-2016">reported</a> that 13.5m, or 21% of the UK population were living in poverty in 2014-15, and that 3.8m of them were workers. </p>
<p>Hard-working families face the prospect of a return to the stagflation of the mid-1970s: rising prices coinciding with stagnant or falling real incomes.
Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, <a href="http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2016/speech946.pdf">warned</a> of “the first lost decade since the 1860s”, because the current level of UK economic activity remains fully 16% below its pre-financial crisis trend.</p>
<p>Initially under Ed Miliband’s leadership, and now under Corbyn, there is also a danger that the 2010s will become known politically and electorally as the lost decade for the Labour Party. Yet, now that she has confirmation of parliamentary support for her timetable, if May fails to secure a successful Brexit settlement for the UK, the decade may be lost for more than just the Labour Party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/70015/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Caroline Johnson won with a large majority in the by-election in Lincolnshire.Simon Lee, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of HullLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/620202016-07-05T11:31:50Z2016-07-05T11:31:50ZStick, twist or dissolve? Three options for UKIP after Nigel Farage<p>The result of the EU referendum could be considered the ultimate victory for Nigel Farage and his party. UKIP was founded as a single-issue political party – its sole aim being to leave the European Union.</p>
<p>Yet, to the surprise of many, Farage has resigned as UKIP leader – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-resignation-that-never-was-why-ukip-needs-farage-for-its-next-big-fight-41641">this time, for good</a>. Even though he said he’d like to play a role in Brexit negotiations, the British government is highly unlikely to have such a farewell gift in mind for him.</p>
<p>His decision will spark a leadership contest but it also provides an opportunity for UKIP to rethink its priorities now that its primary goal has been achieved. It can capitalise on the gains made under Farage but it needs to combine that success with a greater sense of unity – which never seemed possible during his tenure.</p>
<h2>A star on the rise</h2>
<p>Over the past two decades, UKIP has gained considerable influence in the European Parliament. It is now the largest British party represented in Strasbourg following a stunning victory in the 2014 European elections – although one could argue that the biggest winner in that particular vote was <a href="http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm">abstention</a>.</p>
<p>UKIP’s influence in shaping the British government’s European agenda cannot be ignored. It wasn’t part of the official Vote Leave campaign but it inspired many of the policies on which the campaign was based. The idea of introducing an Australian points-based system to lower net migration <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/1103/attachments/original/1429295050/UKIPManifesto2015.pdf?1429295050">originally came out of UKIP</a>, for example. </p>
<figure>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Faraxit.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Farage’s departure does not mean UKIP will disappear. It is polling as the third largest political force post-Brexit <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/749944613566316544">with 15% of voting intentions</a>.</p>
<p>But whether the party can sustain this all depends on if it can re-brand itself after Brexit. It will need a strong, charismatic leader who has clear views on what the party should do, and who can generate media attention. Douglas Carswell, the party’s sole MP, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36705033">has already implied that he will not stand</a>, although he believes the party should not become an “angry and nativist” movement.</p>
<p>The other bookmakers’ favourites are MEPs Paul Nuttall, the current deputy leader, and Steven Woolfe, the party’s migration spokesman. Suzanne Evans, the former deputy leader, has also declared her interest, but is currently suspended from the party for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/23/ukip-suzanne-evans-suspended-disloyalty-nigel-farage">disloyalty</a>. </p>
<p>Three scenarios seem imaginable, and it mostly depends on the kind of new relationship negotiated between the UK and the EU.</p>
<h2>1. Rebrand</h2>
<p>This is probably the most likely scenario, since it was envisaged way before the referendum. In this possible future, UKIP is made over to become the English nationalist UKIP (or EIP).</p>
<p>Even back during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum campaign, there were clear indications that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/12/nigel-farage-ukip-english-ignored-scottish-referendum">Farage backed the creation of a devolved English parliament</a>. He claimed there is no reason why England should not have devolved powers like Scotland or Wales. While UKIP’s recent success in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/wales-ukip-and-plaid-gain-new-assembly-seats-as-labour-holds-on-to-power-59012">Welsh elections</a> could be an obstacle to this alternative, the party might also campaign for transforming the UK into a real federal state, with increased devolution for everyone. </p>
<h2>2. Status quo</h2>
<p>If the UK negotiates a deal with the EU that continues to allow EU migration, very many Leave voters will feel betrayed. Immigration was a key factor in the Leave victory and it would be surprising if the UK didn’t seek a deal that would limit free movement to some extent – at least temporarily.</p>
<p>But if the deal is judged unsatisfactory, UKIP could then make significant electoral gains in its current form. It could argue that the UK has not really left the EU if immigration continues to be allowed, and continue to campaign on the immigration issue.</p>
<h2>3. Disintegration</h2>
<p>Whoever becomes the new UKIP leader will have some big shoes to fill. Farage’s populism and charisma were central to the party’s surge. Whoever replaces him will have to keep the momentum going. But they will have to do a much better job at uniting the party than Farage ever could.</p>
<p>If the new leader fails to bring the party together behind a solid and consensual political agenda, some members might defect. Before Farage’s resignation, one of UKIP’s key donors, Arron Banks, hinted that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/leave-donor-plans-new-party-to-replace-ukip-without-farage">he would create a brand new political party capitalising on the Leave momentum</a>. He also claimed that “Ukip needs to be reformed root and branch”. This move was rather surprising, and Farage’s decision to resign could have been linked to Banks’ interview. Perhaps now that Farage has resigned, Banks will give up his plans to found a new party.</p>
<p>UKIP now finds itself in a similar position to Labour and the Conservatives. Despite having set itself up as a million miles from the mainstream parties, it now faces the same, crucial existential challenges in the wake of Brexit. These will need to be addressed sooner rather than later.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Leruth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What’s a single-issue party to do once it has achieved it’s only ambition?Benjamin Leruth, Research Associate in Politics and Social Policy, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/455092015-08-03T05:27:56Z2015-08-03T05:27:56ZJean Monnet chair: we have every right to engage in debates on Europe<p>Paul Nuttall, the deputy leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), <a href="http://www.ukip.org/eu_subverting_uk_education_as_ukip_reveals_eu_funded_university_professors">has warned the BBC</a> not to use EU-funded professors, known as Jean Monnet Chairs, as “supposedly impartial speakers” on European affairs. Having myself twice been a Jean Monnet Chair of European Politics – first at Aberystwyth University in 2010 and second at the University of Kent since 2013 – I feel it is my duty and responsibility to clarify their role and refute UKIP’s insinuation that my colleagues and I are biased in favour of Britain staying in the European Union.</p>
<p>A UKIP press release said that the system of EU-funded professors “amounts to the erosion of academic independence via a form of paid-for propaganda”. Nuttall said it was: “akin to the sort of deliberate indoctrination one would expect in Cold War Communism, not in the 21st-century western world.” </p>
<p>UKIP’s statements came as Universities UK launched a campaign called <a href="http://www.universitiesforeurope.com/Pages/Home.aspx#.VbtDfbcb4TU">Universities for Europe</a>, arguing for Britain to stay in the EU. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90421/original/image-20150731-11786-16t68i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/90421/original/image-20150731-11786-16t68i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90421/original/image-20150731-11786-16t68i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90421/original/image-20150731-11786-16t68i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90421/original/image-20150731-11786-16t68i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90421/original/image-20150731-11786-16t68i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/90421/original/image-20150731-11786-16t68i2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A bust of Jean Monnet in the Peace Palace in The Hague.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jean_monnet_Palais_de_la_Paix_Peace_Palace_Den_Haag_The_Hague_La_Haye.jpg">Oeuvre personnel/Wikimedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="a%20teaching%20post%20with%20a%20specialisation%20in%20European%20Union%20studies%20for%20university%20professors">European Commission states </a> that a Jean Monnet Chair is “a teaching post with a specialisation in European Union studies for university professors”. They are named after <a href="http://www.britannica.com/biography/Jean-Monnet">Jean Monnet</a>, a French political economist regarded as a founding father of the EU. The position is awarded for teaching excellence on deepening curriculum, research on EU affairs or mentoring a young generation of teachers on EU subject areas. They disseminate knowledge, promote understanding and foster debate around European issues, in a critical and objective manner.</p>
<h2>Academic objectivity</h2>
<p>Since commencing my work at the University of Kent I have engaged students, academics, civil servants and politicians at both national and European levels and the wider public in furthering understanding of European issues. During the 2014 European elections, the Global Europe Centre at the University of Kent <a href="http://www.kent.ac.uk/newsarchive/news/stories/europe_days-hustings-politics/2014.html">held a hustings</a>, open for all registered candidates. I’m glad the UKIP representative, Alan Stevens, after much persuasion, attended and engaged in a vigorous debate with our students. This demonstrated academic objectivity and freedom in practice, availing equal opportunity to all parties.</p>
<p>My academic colleagues and I have engaged with several House of Lords’ enquiries, including the European External Action Service, EU-Russia relations and EU Neighbourhood Policies, which were critical of the status quo and called for further reform. </p>
<p>Paul Nuttall’s inferences of partiality are ungrounded, and fail to recognise the important work academia brings to policy debates through research impact and critical engagement. As a <a href="http://www.paulnuttallmep.com/">former university lecturer</a>, I am sure he would understand the nature and the role of academia. Indeed, UKIP was founded by an eminent academic, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ukip-founder-a-genuine-debate-over-europe-has-been-hijacked-by-racism-and-stupidity-27307">Alan Sked</a>, of the London School of Economics, who through his own research fostered the European debate, in an open and critical way.</p>
<p>By refuting the freedom of speech to academics holding Jean Monnet Chairs, Paul Nuttall not only treads a very fine line towards demagogy, he in fact challenges the very foundations of his own political party.</p>
<h2>Widespread EU funding</h2>
<p>It’s also helpful to remember that all UK universities are heavily funded by various European sources. These include <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/en/what-horizon-2020">Horizon 2020</a>, with its €80 billion (£56 billion) framework programme to advance research across all fields of knowledge, the <a href="https://erasmusplus.org.uk/">Erasmus+</a> student and academic exchange programme – and various other collaborative research council programmes including the <a href="https://eacea.ec.europa.eu/erasmus-plus/actions/jean-monnet_en">Jean Monnet activities</a>. </p>
<p>To infer that academics who are funded by the EU should not be engaged in the EU referendum debate is to deny all UK-based academics freedom of speech to engage for either the Yes or No campaign.</p>
<p>Academics plays an important part in the world of politics and policy and it’s important they also engage in the debate over Britain’s role in Europe. I look forward to the forthcoming debate on the EU referendum and if Paul Nuttall would like to engage with our academics and students at the University of Kent, I would be happy to host him here.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/45509/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elena Korosteleva is Jean Monnet Chair at the University of Kent for 2013-2016. She received funding from the Economic Social and Research Council in 2008-2011, European Commission and various other organisations</span></em></p>UKIP has criticised a group of EU-funded professors for not being impartial commentators in referendum debates.Elena Korosteleva, Professor of International Politics, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.