tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/plaid-cymru-15051/articlesPlaid Cymru – The Conversation2024-03-20T16:35:51Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2207982024-03-20T16:35:51Z2024-03-20T16:35:51ZVaughan Gething elected as Wales’ new first minister – but challenges have just begun for Welsh Labour<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-68500807">Vaughan Gething</a> is Wales’ new first minister after winning the Welsh Labour leadership election. Gething narrowly beat his opponent, Jeremy Miles, with 51.7% of the vote, and in so doing becomes the first black leader of any European nation.</p>
<p>Gething was voted in by the Senedd (Welsh parliament) and replaces <a href="https://theconversation.com/mark-drakeford-what-the-resignation-of-wales-first-minister-means-for-the-country-and-the-labour-party-219887">Mark Drakeford</a> who had been first minister since 2018.</p>
<p>The leadership race itself was not one that was lit up by different political visions or ideologically charged debates. Both contenders are solicitors by trade, fairly centrist in terms of their rhetoric and political commitments, and without glaring contrasts in their manifestos. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-68336716">Gething</a> was born in Zambia in 1974, to a Welsh father and Zambian mother. They moved to the UK when he was four, and he attended university in Aberystwyth and Cardiff before pursuing his legal career. He was first elected to the Senedd in 2011, representing the Cardiff South and Penarth constituency, and rose up the ministerial ladder thereafter. </p>
<p>Gething will be the fifth first minister since Welsh devolution in 1999. He inherits a Labour party which, overall, has won every election in Wales <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-63636856">since 1922</a>. There is, nevertheless, a little more to the story, which suggests the future for Welsh Labour may be less straightforward than either Gething or his party would have hoped.</p>
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<p>This is in part due to the problems that Welsh Labour have hit upon towards the end of the tenure of <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/news-opinion/mark-drakeford-departing-first-minister-28812852">Drakeford</a>. There is <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4n789jv49jo">ongoing controversy</a> over 20mph speed limits in Wales and a <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68563949">UK COVID inquiry</a> that has drawn our attention to the enthusiasm of Welsh Labour for avoiding a Wales-specific investigation. </p>
<p>Meanwhile, <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-are-farmers-up-in-arms-the-view-from-wales-223901">farmers</a> are protesting against the Welsh government’s proposed scheme to replace the EU’s common agricultural policy.</p>
<p>While Drakeford has been subject to the most criticism on these matters, Gething was unable to avoid some of the fallout from the pandemic. He recently had a tough time at the COVID inquiry when he <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68535441#">admitted</a> all his pandemic WhatsApp messages had disappeared after his official phone was wiped. Gething described it as a “matter of real embarrassment”.</p>
<p>His <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68590453">leadership bid</a> was also hit by scandal when it emerged that he had taken a £200,000 donation for his campaign from a company run by a man twice convicted of environmental offences. In 2016, he had asked Natural Resources Wales (the government body responsible for environmental issues) to ease restrictions on the company in question. </p>
<p>Both Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives have called on Gething to return the money, but he has so far rejected those calls.</p>
<p>Jeremy Miles also <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-68109598">criticised</a> the way Wales’ largest union declared its support for Gething during the leadership contest. Unite had deemed Miles ineligible for its support as he had not been a lay union official. This was seen as a “stitch up” among Miles’ supporters and Gething will have to extend them an olive branch as he takes up his new role.</p>
<p>Assuming Gething is able to negotiate these choppy waters as his leadership sets sail, a victory for Labour in the next Westminster general election is unlikely to ease the pressure. Given Gething’s centrism he is likely to be perceived as a willing party in delivering <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/03/keir-starmer-labour-wont-turn-on-spending-taps-wins-election">Starmer’s agenda</a>. </p>
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<p>There will be other challenges for Gething to negotiate, beyond the immediate need <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/18/vaughan-gething-win-wales-welsh-labour-leader">to placate</a> those on the losing side of the contest. In particular his management of internal Welsh Labour difference will be significant. As with many successful parties, there are elements of a coalition that maintain it and Gething must ensure that balance.</p>
<p>He must contend with the cultural boundaries between the more Anglicised and urban south and east, and the more Welsh-speaking and often more rural areas of the west and north. While the latter areas do not deliver the core vote for Labour, their support in those areas helps to maintain their predominance through the partial proportional representation system of the Senedd.</p>
<p>An additional layer of complexity has emerged in the last five years as <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-wales-future-hold-new-report-maps-options-for-more-devolution-federal-and-independent-futures-221503">independence</a> has become a concrete concern in Welsh politics. Somewhat surprisingly for a unionist party, there is more or less a <a href="https://nation.cymru/news/almost-half-pro-independence-voters-chose-labour-at-senedd-election/">50-50 split</a> among Labour voters on the question. Drakeford was able to play to both sides of the argument. He was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/may/29/uk-could-break-up-unless-it-is-rebuilt-as-solidarity-union-says-mark-drakeford">clear</a> in his fundamental unionism but also articulated doubts about its longevity. How Gething negotiates the question may be telling.</p>
<p>For now what is beyond doubt is that the Welsh Labour brand has been damaged. Gething’s actions are not in isolation but rather a function of a party culture of permissiveness. With a light having been shone on its inner workings, they are in danger of losing the moral high ground, so often used to persuade Welsh voters to back them to protect them from the Tories. </p>
<p>In many ways a skilled operator, who has been almost laser-like in surmounting significant barriers and achieving his goal, Gething now faces a very different set of challenges.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220798/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huw L Williams is a member of the Green Party.</span></em></p>Vaughan Gething succeeds Mark Drakeford as Welsh first minister, following a vote in the Senedd.Huw L Williams, Reader in Political Philosophy, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2213582024-03-06T17:14:56Z2024-03-06T17:14:56ZHow the 1984 miners’ strike paved the way for devolution in Wales<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577265/original/file-20240222-24-1zfxh1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C2000%2C1310&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Miners from different collieries gather in Port Talbot in April 1984.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alandenney/2457055287">Alan Denney/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>March 2024 marks the 40th anniversary of the start of the <a href="https://www.history.ox.ac.uk/miners-strike-1984-5-oral-history">miners’ strike</a>. In Wales, particularly within the south Wales coalfield, it was more than an industrial dispute. This was a major political event that reflected deeper cultural and economic changes. </p>
<p>These changes, alongside discontent at the emphasis of the then-UK prime minister <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cje/article/44/2/319/5550923">Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government</a> on free market economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk-strikes-how-margaret-thatcher-and-other-leaders-cut-trade-union-powers-over-centuries-186270">stifling trade unions</a> and reducing the size of the state shifted how many Labour heartlands viewed the idea of self-government for Wales. This was due to Thatcher’s actions hitting at the heart of many working-class Labour voters’ existence, leading to threats to livelihoods and communities. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/what-thatcher-did-for-wales/">Many started feeling</a> that some of the devastation wreaked by Thatcherism could have been avoided had there been a devolved Welsh government. That government would, in all likelihood, have been Labour controlled, acting as a “protective shield”.</p>
<p>Instead, by the time of the May 1979 general election (five years before the miners’ strike), Wales was a nation divided. Only weeks earlier, it had overwhelmingly <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP97-113/RP97-113.pdf">rejected</a> the Labour government’s proposal to create a Welsh Assembly, which would have given Wales a certain degree of autonomy from Westminster.</p>
<p>Many Labour MPs, such as Welshman Neil Kinnock, had vehemently opposed devolution and favoured a united British state. However, it was now this state, through a National Coal Board overseen by a Westminster Conservative government, that was aiming to further close Welsh coal mines. </p>
<p>The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) was both a political and workplace representative for miners and their communities. For a politician like Kinnock, balancing party and local interests was difficult. </p>
<p>Thatcher’s Conservative party won a large majority at the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m09.pdf">1983 election</a> and the Ebbw Vale MP, Michael Foot, had been Labour leader during its defeat. His left-wing manifesto had been <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8550425.stm">dubbed</a> the “longest suicide note in history” by Gerald Kaufman, himself a Labour MP. It led to Foot’s resignation and the election of Kinnock as the leader of the opposition. </p>
<p>As a miners’ strike looked more likely, the national context made Labour party support for the strike problematic. Despite his political and personal ties to the NUM, Kinnock <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/509387">disagreed</a> with its leaders, such as Arthur Scargill, and their strategies for the strike. However, the Labour leader supported the right of the miners to defend their livelihood. </p>
<p>In a period of difficult deindustrialisation across nationalised industries, Labour was caught between unstoppable economic restructuring and job losses that affected its traditional voters.</p>
<h2>Thatcherism and Wales</h2>
<p>Gwyn A. Williams, a Marxist historian, <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/When_was_Wales/QUJ0QgAACAAJ?hl=en">described</a> Welsh people as “a naked people under an acid rain”. This acidity had two main ingredients: Thatcherism and the “no” vote for a Welsh Assembly in 1979. </p>
<p>According to this analysis, the absence of devolution in Wales had left it exposed to the vagaries of Conservative governance in Westminster. The dangers of this were illuminated during the miners’ strike and in high unemployment rates of <a href="https://www.gov.wales/digest-welsh-historical-statistics-0">nearly 14% in Wales</a> by the mid-1980s. </p>
<p>However, it would be a fallacy to argue that Wales was a no-go zone for the Conservatives, even after the strike. In the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/documents/commons-information-office/m11.pdf">1987 general election</a>, although their number of MPs dropped from the 1983 high of 14 to eight, they were still attracting 29.5% of the Welsh vote. </p>
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<img alt="Black and white photo of Margaret Thatcher with her hands raised in front of a union flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=843&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/577951/original/file-20240226-24-onf851.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1059&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Was Margaret Thatcher one of the unwitting architects of Welsh devolution?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/levanrami/43795237465">Levan Ramishvili/Flickr</a></span>
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<p>It would take several more years of Conservative policies such as the poll tax, the tenure of John Redwood as secretary of state for Wales (1993-95) and the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13689889808413006">scandal-riven sagas</a> of the party during the 1990s for them to gain zero seats in Wales in 1997. </p>
<p>Nonetheless, the strike, and the febrile atmosphere of the period, had carved out a Welsh distinctiveness to anti-Conservative rhetoric. Several organisations and conferences during the 1980s laid the groundwork that shaped new questions about Welsh nationhood. They contributed to the swing towards a narrow “yes” vote in the 1997 Welsh devolution <a href="https://law.gov.wales/constitution-and-government/constitution-and-devolution/executive-devolution-1998-2007">referendum</a> offered by Tony Blair’s Labour government, which came to power in 1997.</p>
<p>In February 1985, Hywel Francis, a historian and later Labour MP for Aberafan, published an article in the magazine, <a href="https://banmarchive.org.uk/marxism-today/february-1985/mining-the-popular-front/">Marxism Today</a>, suggesting that the miners’ strike was not merely an industrial dispute but an anti-Thatcher resistance movement. </p>
<p>Central to his argument was the formation of the <a href="https://archives.library.wales/index.php/wales-congress-in-support-of-mining-communities">Wales Congress in Support of Mining Communities</a> the previous autumn, which formalised some of the “unexpected alliances” heralded by the strike. The Congress coordinated the demonstrations and activism of some of the diverse groups that both supported the miners and simultaneously resisted many of the policies of the Thatcher government. These included trade unionists, religious leaders, the women’s peace movement, gay rights campaigners, as well as Labour members and Welsh nationalist activists. According to Francis, the latter two realised that “unless they joined, the world would pass them by”.</p>
<p>The congress aimed to stimulate a coordinated debate about Welsh mining communities, moving the narrative away from picket-line conflict and towards a democratic vision of Wales’s future. </p>
<p>While the strike ended only a month after Francis’s article, and the organisation itself dissolved in 1986, the congress had bridged many chasms in Welsh society. It showed old enemies in Labour and Plaid Cymru that solidarity could reap more benefits than the overt tribalism that had blighted the devolution campaign of the 1970s. </p>
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<img alt="A large modern building with a large roof that juts out." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=355&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/578555/original/file-20240228-24-bi5coh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=446&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The Senedd in Cardiff.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/cardiff-wales-united-kingdom-06-17-2335002765">meunierd/Shutterstock</a></span>
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<h2>Legacy</h2>
<p>In 1988, the campaign for a Welsh Assembly was <a href="https://academic.oup.com/manchester-scholarship-online/book/29790/chapter-abstract/251892249?redirectedFrom=fulltext">established</a> in Cardiff by Siân Caiach of Plaid Cymru and Jon Owen Jones of Labour. It was a direct descendant of this collaborative ethos, feeding an altogether more mature debate around Welsh devolution than had been seen in the 1970s. </p>
<p>For example, Ron Davies, an arch-devolutionist in 1990s Labour, <a href="https://www.iwa.wales/wp-content/media/2016/03/acceleratinghistory.pdf">had voted “no”</a> in 1979. This was predominantly because he saw devolution as a Trojan horse for Plaid. </p>
<p>However, seeing the consequences of the miners’ strike and Thatcherism on his constituency of Caerffili drove him towards a drastic re-evaluation of devolution as being a protective buffer for the people of Wales. He became leader of Welsh Labour in 1998, eventually joining Plaid in 2010.</p>
<p>Historian Martin Johnes <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-16315966">has described</a> Thatcher as an “unlikely architect of Welsh devolution”. Indeed, her inadvertent <a href="https://www.iwa.wales/agenda/2013/04/we-voted-labour-but-got-thatcher/">help</a> in orchestrating the Welsh Assembly rested in the forging of Labour and Plaid Cymru cooperation, with the miners’ strike as a watershed movement. </p>
<p>The strike remains a vivid memory in many Welsh communities. It stands as a reminder to 21st-century politicians that today’s Senedd (Welsh parliament) was built on cross-party cooperation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221358/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The strike saw different political factions uniting, which eventually led to a more collaborative form of politics in Wales.Mari Wiliam, Lecturer in Modern and Welsh History, Bangor UniversityMarc Collinson, Lecturer in Political History, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2094582023-07-17T09:29:44Z2023-07-17T09:29:44ZPlaid Cymru’s new leader faces tough challenges ahead of next elections<p><em>You can read the Welsh version of this article <a href="https://theconversation.com/yr-heriaun-wynebu-rhun-ap-iorwerth-cyn-yr-etholiadau-nesaf-209462">here</a>.</em></p>
<p><a href="https://senedd.wales/people/rhun-ap-iorwerth-ms/">Rhun ap Iorwerth</a> was appointed as Plaid Cymru’s new leader mid-June 2023. He replaced Adam Price, who stood down in response to a damaging <a href="https://www.partyof.wales/prosiect_pawb">report</a> which found evidence of a culture of sexual harassment, bullying and misogyny in the party.</p>
<p>An immediate priority for ap Iorwerth is to implement the report’s 82 recommendations. These include introducing new policies on sexual harassment, improving how the party manages staff welfare and complaints, and reviewing its governance structures. This is a major undertaking for any political party, but particularly for an organisation which is not large, or especially well-resourced. </p>
<p>Plaid Cymru will have to implement these changes while preparing for the UK general election next year and the Senedd election in 2026. But doing well in those elections requires more than just organisational reform and preparedness. </p>
<p>The party must also consider its electoral strategy – it has failed to make any significant electoral advance in recent years. This is a trend confirmed by its performance in the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results/wales">2019 general election</a> and the <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-57026094">2021 Senedd election</a>. </p>
<p>And there are no signs of electoral resurgence anytime soon. <a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/welsh-westminster-senedd-independence-referendum-voting-intention-17-18-june-2023/">Opinion polls</a> suggest the party will make minimal gains in the next general election. Improving on that in the Senedd election two years later will be difficult. </p>
<h2>Welsh independence</h2>
<p>In the 2021 Senedd election, Plaid Cymru put its call for Welsh independence front and centre of its campaign and promised to hold a referendum within five years if it became the party of government. </p>
<p>In this respect, it adopted the same strategy as many other pro-independence parties and movements across Europe. <a href="https://cwps.aber.ac.uk/imajine/independence/">Our research</a> analysed the kinds of constitutional claims made by such organisations in documents such as manifestos, policy papers and press releases. We found that calls for independence had increased over the last decade, with a greater emphasis on making the positive case for creating a new state. </p>
<p>But such a strategy misjudged the priorities of Welsh voters at the time, which was recovery from the COVID pandemic, rather than major constitutional change. COVID-related challenges are less likely to be so dominant next time round. Welsh independence is still only <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/new-poll-shows-40-people-27290676">supported</a> by a minority of voters. Constitutional reform remains very low on the list of issues that are important to people. </p>
<h2>Scotland’s example</h2>
<p>The Scottish National Party’s (SNP) <a href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/supreme-court-judgment-on-scottish-independence-referendum/">failed efforts</a> to secure the legal right to hold another independence referendum have also shown that there is no easy way forward for those who want to leave the UK. With the SNP <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/25/humza-yousaf-leaves-the-snp-faithful-confused-about-his-strategy-for-independence">struggling to set out a credible strategy</a> for how to achieve independence, there’s little prospect that Plaid Cymru will find many new votes by making this its central electoral offering.</p>
<p>Many of those who do <a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/welsh-westminster-senedd-independence-referendum-voting-intention-17-18-june-2023/">support</a> Welsh independence, are also Labour voters. And there is no sign that they are willing to ditch their allegiance and switch to supporting Plaid Cymru instead. </p>
<p>On the contrary, <a href="https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/welsh-westminster-senedd-independence-referendum-voting-intention-17-18-june-2023/">opinion polls</a> suggest Welsh Labour is likely to increase its share of the vote in the 2024 general election and remain the largest party in the Senedd when it is re-elected. This is in spite of the difficulties that the Welsh Labour-led Welsh government is facing in the areas it is responsible for, such as the <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/welsh-nhs-knees-who-put-26918450">NHS</a>. </p>
<p>There is much that can (and will likely) change between now, next year and 2026. Plaid Cymru – like other pro-independence parties, including the SNP – has always had to strike a balance between advancing its long-term constitutional goal and focusing on more pressing challenges. </p>
<p>And voters may yet lose faith in Welsh Labour and its track record in government. It’s also expected that Welsh Labour will contest the next election under a new leader. First minister Mark Drakeford has already <a href="https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/mark-drakeford-interview-first-minister-25808177">confirmed his intention</a> to stand down. Plus the elections will take place for a much larger Senedd (which will see the number of members rise from 60 to 96), and under a new electoral system. </p>
<p>Changing how the Senedd is elected was one of the commitments in the <a href="https://www.gov.wales/co-operation-agreement-2021">co-operation agreement</a> signed between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru in 2021. The parties agreed to <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-64649656">work together on a range of policy areas</a>, without Plaid having to formally enter government as part of a coalition. </p>
<p>Plaid Cymru will hope that other policy changes achieved as a result of that agreement will show voters it can be trusted to govern for Wales and deliver radical change. These have included extending free school meals to children in primary schools and new measures to tackle the often negative impact of second homes on communities, especially in coastal and rural areas.</p>
<p>In the changed Welsh political context of 2026, there could be opportunities for Plaid Cymru to reposition itself as the party of Wales. It has major organisational and strategic challenges to address before it can do so, and it has to move quickly to tackle them. </p>
<p>But even if it resolves those, it’s not clear that Welsh voters will be persuaded that it is time to end the electoral hegemony of Welsh Labour, who have been in power since 1999. In having to compete against such an opponent, Rhun ap Iorwerth’s Plaid Cymru faces an electoral challenge that is unique among Europe’s pro-independence parties.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209458/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Anwen Elias receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Elin Royles receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) as part of the WISERD Civil Society Research Project. The basis of the research informing this article was EU Horizon 2020 funding.</span></em></p>Rhun ap Iorwerth replaced Adam Price as Plaid Cymru leader.Anwen Elias, Reader in Politics, Aberystwyth UniversityElin Royles, Senior lecturer in politics, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1978282023-02-13T16:37:25Z2023-02-13T16:37:25Z100 years of the BBC in Wales: an uneasy start and unclear future<p>Three months after the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/historyofthebbc/timelines/">BBC’s first transmission from London</a>, public service broadcasting in Wales began at 5.00pm on February 13 1923. The small studio above a cinema in the centre of Cardiff also served audiences in the west of England. This may explain the very limited amount of Welsh language material broadcast at the outset.</p>
<p>To ensure the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/British-Broadcasting-Corporation">British Broadcasting Company</a>, as it was then known, was in no doubt about the existence of the native language and culture of Wales, <a href="https://archiveshub.jisc.ac.uk/search/archives/755550d6-e5e4-3448-a161-d220d4a48103">Cylch Dewi</a> (a group of cultural nationalists) <a href="https://academic.oup.com/manchester-scholarship-online/book/24026/chapter-abstract/185414557?redirectedFrom=fulltext">arranged</a> the first wireless broadcast of a Welsh-language religious service from Swansea on February 22 1925. By the mid-1920s, they were producing programmes of their own for the BBC, following consultations with E.R. Appleton, Cardiff’s station director. </p>
<p>Concerns about the effect of the wireless on life in Wales, however, were widespread in the early years of broadcasting. In 1927, a report commissioned by the Welsh Board of Education, entitled <a href="http://www.educationengland.org.uk/documents/wales1927/index.html#03%E2%80%8B">Welsh in Education and Life</a>, was published. It contained a damning attack on the BBC:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Wireless is achieving the complete Anglicisation of the intellectual life of the nation. We regard the present policy of the British Broadcasting Corporation as one of the most serious menaces to the life of the Welsh language.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The BBC’s regional scheme had been devised by Peter Eckersley, the BBC’s chief engineer and Sir John Reith, the corporation’s director general. It included Wales as part of the so-called “west region”. This uneasy marriage with Bristol and the west of England from 1930 onward resulted in increased pressure from many parts of Welsh society (most notably the University of Wales and local authorities) for the BBC to recognise Wales as a nation with its own cultural and linguistic needs. </p>
<p>In 1932, one correspondent writing in the Plaid Cymru newsletter, Y Ddraig Goch, <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=mb2rDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT37&lpg=PT37&dq=%22The+majority+of+the+material+broadcast+is+alien+to+our+traditions,+damaging+to+our+culture,+and+is+a+grave+danger+to+everything+special+in+our+civilisation%22&source=bl&ots=t6XNYhV1im&sig=ACfU3U1Ew_mrw0xyThoW3AbtD9uKBU3SAA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiJnYHkx5L9AhX6QUEAHSueDlkQ6AF6BAgJEAM#v=onepage&q=%22The%20majority%20of%20the%20material%20broadcast%20is%20alien%20to%20our%20traditions%2C%20damaging%20to%20our%20culture%2C%20and%20is%20a%20grave%20danger%20to%20everything%20special%20in%20our%20civilisation%22&f=false">stated</a>: “The majority of the material broadcast is alien to our traditions, damaging to our culture, and is a grave danger to everything special in our civilisation.”</p>
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<p>With the opening of the Penmon transmitter on Anglesey in the north of Wales in February 1937, the corporation fully acknowledged Wales as a separate “region”. The <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Broadcasting_and_the_BBC_in_Wales/R7kVAQAAMAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0&bsq=broadcasting%20and%20the%20bbc%20in%20wales">historian John Davies argued</a> the establishment of the “Welsh region” was an important concession to nationalist sentiment. He compared it with the <a href="https://law.gov.wales/ecclesiastical-law-and-church-wales">disestablishment of the Church in Wales</a> from the Church of England in 1920. These events enhanced a sense of nationhood and a belonging to an entity called “Wales”.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="A graphic featuring the text " src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509749/original/file-20230213-3390-uhtmw5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509749/original/file-20230213-3390-uhtmw5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509749/original/file-20230213-3390-uhtmw5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509749/original/file-20230213-3390-uhtmw5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509749/original/file-20230213-3390-uhtmw5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509749/original/file-20230213-3390-uhtmw5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509749/original/file-20230213-3390-uhtmw5.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amgueddfa Cymru/National Museum Wales</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>John Davies <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/Broadcasting_and_the_BBC_in_Wales/R7kVAQAAMAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=0&bsq=broadcasting%20and%20the%20bbc%20in%20wales">also argued</a> the establishment of the Welsh region had wider repercussions: “In the history of BBC broadcasting in Wales, the importance of the victory won in sound radio can scarcely be exaggerated. All the subsequent recognition of Wales in the field of broadcasting (and, it could be argued, in other fields also) stemmed from that victory.” </p>
<p>From this point onward, the BBC played a major part in Welsh life. It informed, educated and entertained in Welsh and English, initially on radio and then, from 1952, on television. </p>
<p>The creation of BBC Cymru Wales came in February 1964 as a result of the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/37146240_%27You_Say_A_Minority_Sir_We_Say_A_Nation%27_The_Pilkington_Committee_on_Broadcasting_1960-2_and_Wales">report of the Pilkington committee</a> on broadcasting. This was a government-appointed committee that considered the future of broadcasting in the UK. It laid the foundation for a regular television service in Wales. Ultimately, it led to the creation of national radio stations Radio Wales and Radio Cymru in the late 1970s, which continue to broadcast to this day. </p>
<h2>Future</h2>
<p>In December 2022, the <a href="https://museum.wales/cardiff/whatson/11771/BBC-100-in-Wales/">BBC 100 in Wales exhibition</a> opened at the National Museum Cardiff and will run until April. The exhibition to celebrate the corporation’s 100th anniversary was developed in conjunction with a group of young people to examine how the future may look for the corporation. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Igq8UtvqjIU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">BBC 100 in Wales opened at the National Museum Cardiff in December 2022.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/bbc-at-100-the-future-for-global-news-and-challenges-facing-the-world-service-192296">global</a> broadcasting landscape is ever-changing and the BBC is having to adapt to this. Challenges come from streaming services, other broadcasters and, not least, from a government that has called the very nature of <a href="https://theconversation.com/bbc-licence-fee-could-scrapping-it-be-the-end-of-public-service-broadcasting-in-the-uk-175292">public service broadcasting and the licence fee</a> into question. </p>
<p>In December 2021, the Welsh Labour government and Plaid Cymru announced a new <a href="https://www.gov.wales/co-operation-agreement-full-policy-programme-html">co-operation agreement</a>, which outlined several policy commitments over the next three years. Among them was the creation of a new shadow broadcasting and communications authority, which would draw up plans for the devolution of broadcasting and communications powers to the Senedd. A <a href="https://www.gov.wales/expert-panel-devolution-broadcasting-announced">panel</a> has been established to consider the way forward in this area. </p>
<p>How this might work in reality is, as yet, undetermined. Which aspects of broadcasting would be devolved remains unclear, as are the possible implications for the BBC and other broadcasters. There is also uncertainty over whether the Welsh government would even be able to persuade the UK government’s Department of Culture, Media and Sport to devolve such powers.</p>
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<p>There are many factors which have played a part in creating, defining and maintaining a feeling of “Welshness” in Wales, as well as a sense of belonging. There is no doubt about the part the BBC has played. </p>
<p>Penblwydd hapus, BBC Cymru.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197828/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Medhurst receives funding from Arts and Humanities Research Council; The Leverhulme Trust</span></em></p>The BBC is celebrating 100 years of broadcasting in Wales.Jamie Medhurst, Professor of Media and Communication, Aberystwyth UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1972032023-01-10T17:15:46Z2023-01-10T17:15:46ZRichard Price: how one of the 18th century’s most influential thinkers was forgotten<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503384/original/file-20230106-23-db9yxn.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=2%2C2%2C1914%2C1069&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Richard Price reading a letter dated 1784 from his friend, Benjamin Franklin.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Benjamin West, National Library of Wales & Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>According to the eulogies and <a href="https://archive.org/details/sim_gentlemans-magazine_1791-04_61_4/page/388/mode/2up?q=price">obituaries</a> written at the time of his death in 1791, <a href="https://richardpricesociety.org.uk/">Richard Price’s</a> name would be remembered alongside figures such as Benjamin Franklin, John Locke, George Washington and Thomas Paine. </p>
<p>Three hundred years on from his birth in the village of Llangeinor, near Bridgend in south Wales, why has he therefore been lost from our popular memory? </p>
<p>After all, here was a polymath whose lasting contributions ranged across a number of disciplines, including moral philosophy, <a href="https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2013.00638.x">mathematics</a> and theology. Moreover, Price’s contribution as a public intellectual made a huge impact, not least in international politics. </p>
<p>A useful starting point are the parallels with his friend <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/womens-blog/2015/oct/05/original-suffragette-mary-wollstonecraft?CMP=share_btn_link">Mary Wollstonecraft</a>. She was a philosopher, a women’s rights advocate and the mother of <a href="https://www.bl.uk/people/mary-shelley">Mary Shelley</a>. </p>
<p>Wollstonecraft was both inspired by Price and indebted to him. Indeed, her most influential texts are directly linked to Price and the pamphlet war known as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_Controversy">Revolution controversy</a>. </p>
<p>In these texts, influential thinkers discussed the political issues arising from the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/French-Revolution">French Revolution</a>. It has subsequently been recognised as a <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/26213839">formative debate in terms of modern political ideas. </a></p>
<p>It was Price who sparked the controversy with a sermon in 1789 entitled <a href="https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/A_Discourse_on_the_Love_of_Our_Country/92QNAAAAIAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover">A Discourse on the Love of Our Country</a>, in which he supported the opening events of the revolution in France. </p>
<p>He declared it to be a continuation of the spreading of enlightened values and ideas introduced by the <a href="https://www.parliament.uk/about/living-heritage/evolutionofparliament/parliamentaryauthority/revolution/">Glorious Revolution of 1688</a> in England. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XHjtIO0ZFs4?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Richard Price’s sermon to the Revolution Society in 1789.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This provoked a response from the philosopher and Anglo-Irish Whig MP <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Edmund-Burke-British-philosopher-and-statesman">Edmund Burke</a>, with his famous text, <a href="https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/reflections-on-the-revolution-in-france-by-edmund-burke">Reflections on the Revolution in France</a>. </p>
<p>This is regarded as a formative text of modern conservative thought. It defended the importance of the traditional institutions of state and society while warning of the excesses of revolution. </p>
<p>In response, Wollstonecraft published <a href="https://oll.libertyfund.org/title/wollstonecraft-a-vindication-of-the-rights-of-men">A Vindication of the Rights of Men</a> in 1790. It was both a critique of Burke and a defence of Price, who died a year later. </p>
<p>Then in 1792, she wrote her profoundly influential <a href="https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/mary-wollstonecraft-a-vindication-of-the-rights-of-woman">A Vindication of the Rights of Woman</a>, explicitly extending dissenting ideals to women, with a searing social critique. </p>
<p>Both Price and Wollstonecraft would subsequently be written out of history. </p>
<p>Price’s biographer, <a href="https://www.uwp.co.uk/author/Paul-Frame-663/">Paul Frame</a>, suggests this can be partly accounted for by events in France and the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Reign-of-Terror">violent turn to terror during the French Revolution</a>. </p>
<p>As a result, <a href="https://www.uwp.co.uk/book/libertys-apostle-richard-price-his-life-and-times/">Frame suggests</a> Burke was “the man who had accurately predicted the direction of the Revolution”. This “undermined the more optimistic faith in rationalism and natural rights” of Price and others. </p>
<p>They both also suffered in terms of their personal reputation. Price became a caricature of the picture painted by Burke, captured in the cartoons of the day. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Satirical cartoon of Richard Price at his writing desk overlooked by a large nose and eyes surrounded by haze representing Edmund Burke, carrying a crown, a cross and a copy of his pamphlet." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503100/original/file-20230104-70338-pvtb8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503100/original/file-20230104-70338-pvtb8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503100/original/file-20230104-70338-pvtb8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503100/original/file-20230104-70338-pvtb8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=427&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503100/original/file-20230104-70338-pvtb8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503100/original/file-20230104-70338-pvtb8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503100/original/file-20230104-70338-pvtb8n.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=537&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A caricature of Richard Price with a vision of Edmund Burke looking over his shoulder, by James Gillray.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Library of Congress</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Wollstonecraft was posthumously <a href="https://lithub.com/how-a-husbands-loving-biography-ruined-his-wifes-reputation/">undone by the candid biography of her widower</a>, its contents deployed maliciously by those who sought to undermine her. Thankfully, <a href="https://theconversation.com/mary-wollstonecraft-statue-a-provocative-tribute-for-a-radical-woman-149888">her works and good name were recovered by the feminist movement</a>. </p>
<p>As Frame suggests however, there were deeper, structural factors at play. </p>
<p>Price was the embodiment of a reformism the British establishment had a material interest in thwarting. He represented a dissenting community whose <a href="https://welshchapels.wales/nonconformity/">nonconformist Christian denominations</a> were in opposition to the established church and discriminated against. </p>
<p>Price spoke out against the crown, slavery and chauvinistic nationalism. He advocated equality, democratic principles and civic nationalism. </p>
<p>The hostility towards the progressive forces he embodied was symbolised by the <a href="https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100452318;jsessionid=7677A3EB1D19321A218678801F2EDCD1">Seditious Meetings Act</a> introduced in 1795 to stifle the reform movement. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An illustration from 1790 showing three men speaking from a church pulpit to a group of others reading and tearing up documents." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503390/original/file-20230106-6729-mq16ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503390/original/file-20230106-6729-mq16ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503390/original/file-20230106-6729-mq16ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503390/original/file-20230106-6729-mq16ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=841&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503390/original/file-20230106-6729-mq16ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503390/original/file-20230106-6729-mq16ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503390/original/file-20230106-6729-mq16ci.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1056&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Richard Price, Joseph Priestley and Theophilus Lindsay in a 1790 engraving satirising the campaign to have the Test Act repealed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">James Sayers</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There would have been very real consequences had it been Price and his ilk – and not Burke – who were lionised as the spirit of Britain (a state less than a century old at the time). Arguably, we still live with the ramifications today. </p>
<p>Price’s politics eventually had their day as the social tumult of the 19th century meant the tide of reform could not be stemmed. </p>
<p>Burke’s conservatism, however, conceivably still symbolises where the balance of power sits in terms of the UK’s political culture. The Tory party is often <a href="https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA271975015&sid=googleScholar&v=2.1&it=r&linkaccess=abs&issn=15555623&p=AONE&sw=w&userGroupName=anon%7E26847d25">still regarded as the natural party of power</a>, and deference towards the ruling classes remains. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A memorial stone dedicated to Richard Price in Newington Green Unitarian Church" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503386/original/file-20230106-24-s9fgwp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503386/original/file-20230106-24-s9fgwp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503386/original/file-20230106-24-s9fgwp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503386/original/file-20230106-24-s9fgwp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503386/original/file-20230106-24-s9fgwp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503386/original/file-20230106-24-s9fgwp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503386/original/file-20230106-24-s9fgwp.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Memorial to Richard Price in Newington Green Unitarian Church in North London.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jonathan Cardy</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Given the collective amnesia towards him within Britain, it is perhaps apt that celebrations of Price’s life and works should begin this month with a talk at <a href="https://www.amphilsoc.org/events/electrifying-thinkers">the American Philosophical Association</a> in Philadelphia. </p>
<p>There will, however, be <a href="https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100089200358334">a programme of events at home</a> to reflect on his contribution and contemporary relevance. </p>
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<p>This will include a birthday celebration in Llangeinor, an academic conference, and <a href="https://contemporancient.org/">a play</a>. </p>
<p>If he has not been celebrated by a British culture, for which he had such high hopes, then it is high time it happened in Wales, at the very least.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197203/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Huw L Williams works for Cardiff University who are a lead partner in the 'Price 300' project celebrating Richard Price's tercentenary in 2023. His work as a philosopher is part-funded by the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol, a government-funded body responsible for promoting academic activity and teaching through the medium of Welsh. He is the President of the Adran Athroniaeth Cymdeithas Cynfyfyrwyr Prifysgol Cymru that promotes philosophy through the medium of Welsh and Welsh-language philosophy.</span></em></p>He was an important philosopher, mathematician and social reformer of his time. But Richard Price was subsequently written out of history.Huw L Williams, Reader in Political Philosophy, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1267942019-11-12T13:10:49Z2019-11-12T13:10:49ZUK election 2019: everything you need to know about Brexit Party’s Leave ‘pact’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/301140/original/file-20191111-194650-1e7owq8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=117%2C34%2C3005%2C1558&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/boris-johnson-secretary-state-foreign-affairs-1039146241?src=051a07e9-a80f-4236-9a04-29ffc35efe7f-1-2">shutterstock/ PA Alexandros Michailidis</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Nigel Farage, leader of the Brexit Party, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-of-a-threat-is-the-brexit-party-to-boris-johnson-and-jeremy-corbyn-126466">has revealed</a> he will not field candidates in any of the seats currently held by the Conservative Party (or won by them in 2017) in next month’s general election – but what will this mean come polling day?</p>
<p>Farage has vowed instead to “take the fight to Labour”, which could provide a boost for the Conservatives in the seats they are trying to hold. <a href="https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/is-nigel-farage-a-threat-to-labour/#.Xcmb5ZL7RFL">But it could also spell trouble</a> for the seats the Tories want to win. </p>
<p>He also said that his move to stand down Brexit party candidates in Tory-held seats heralded the creation of a <a href="https://news.sky.com/video/general-election-we-now-have-a-leave-alliance-farage-11859389">Leave alliance</a> – which he hopes will rival the <a href="https://theconversation.com/remain-alliance-can-it-halt-brexit-and-beat-boris-johnson-121266">Remain alliance</a> – a cooperation between three parties, Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru, in 60 seats in England and Wales. </p>
<p>As part of the Remain alliance, the three parties have all agreed not to stand candidates against each other. Instead they will all support one anti-Brexit candidate drawn from one of their parties in each constituency. The Liberal Democrats have also agreed to stand down in a handful of special cases, such as Broxtowe where Anna Soubry, leader of the Independent Group for Change, hopes to hold her seat. And the Green parties (in England and Wales and Scotland) have agreed to stand down in a handful of seats to benefit <a href="https://leftfootforward.org/2019/11/greens-stand-aside-for-labour-in-second-seat/">Labour</a> and the <a href="https://leftfootforward.org/2019/11/scottish-greens-step-aside-to-help-beat-tories-in-three-seats/">SNP</a>. </p>
<p>But there’s a difference, of course, between a negotiated (Remain) alliance and what looks like a unilaterial move by the Brexit Party (Leave alliance) – and time will tell whether there are any reciprocal moves by the Conservatives or any involvement of UKIP.</p>
<h2>How will this impact the Conservatives?</h2>
<p>Electoral deals, unilateral standing aside and tactical voting seem to have become the hallmark of this election campaign so far. And, if the assumption that in the absence of a Brexit party, or of UKIP, supporters will tend to vote Conservative holds, then this is both good and bad news for the Tories. Because although it may help some defences, it undermines Johnson’s team in their attack seats. And it may not do wonders for its brand in other areas. </p>
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<p>Let’s say, for example, you are the Conservative candidate in Twickenham, a marginal seat held by the Lib Dems. You may well lose votes to the Brexit party at a time when the Lib Dems have fewer competitors because of the Remain alliance. Then let’s say you are the Conservative candidate taking over in Putney, an area with a large Remain vote and a previously Remain MP in Justine Greening. Will it help to be associated with the Brexit Party?</p>
<h2>What about the Remain alliance?</h2>
<p>With a smaller field to worry about in those Tory held, Remain alliance seats, those parties campaigning on a strong anti-Brexit message can now use a clear attack on Conservative candidates – whoever they are. As every Tory candidate can now be tarred with the Brexit brush. </p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna">Chuka Umunna</a>, Liberal Democrat candidate for Cities of London and Westminster was quick off the block with his tweet:</p>
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<p>Umunna may not be in a Remain alliance seat, but he knows the message to use.</p>
<p>Green Party candidate <a href="https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas">Caroline Lucas</a>, whose Brighton Pavilion seat is included in the Remain alliance list, had this to say:</p>
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<p>Possibly though, the best way of examining the likely effect is to find a seat now affected by the Remain alliance arrangements and the Brexit Party stand down at the same time. One such seat is Southport. In Southport the Remain alliance candidate is the Lib Dem. It’s a very closely fought seat, that changed hands last time and in which Labour has become stronger. Historically this seaside area has tended to be either Lib Dem or Conservative. Lib Dem John Pugh stood down ahead of 2017 when the Conservatives took it back. At this same election Labour moved into second place. This in turn means quite some argument about who is better placed to stop a Tory hold.</p>
<p>It’s also a seat in which a UKIP candidate got more than 1,000 votes in 2017 and stood candidates in this year’s local elections– at a time when many areas didn’t have a UKIP representative. No UKIP candidate was successful here, but the commitment and organisation to field candidates should not be written off. Defending Conservative Damien Moore has reported that UKIP will not stand this time, thereby removing the other potential choice for strong Brexiteers. Southport will be one to watch then for plenty of reasons. </p>
<h2>What about the other parties?</h2>
<p>Clearly it will be some time before there is canvass or polling information which reflects the Brexit Party announcement. But the national reaction of political parties indicates that most leaders feel a vote for the Tories is now the same as a vote for the Brexit Party. </p>
<p>Ed Davey, the Lib Dem deputy leader said that “the Conservatives and the Brexit party are now one and the same”. Labour is calling the arrangement a Trump alliance which is “Thatcherism on steroids” and a <a href="https://labourlist.org/2019/11/brexit-party-stands-down-in-tory-held-seats-to-focus-on-labour-leavers/">Thatcher tribute act</a>. </p>
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<p>The Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price meanwhile said: “That Nigel Farage is willing to endorse Boris Johnson is proof that they are planning to deliver a disastrous no deal”. </p>
<p>The SNP, like the Lib Dems, also say the Brexit Party and the Conservative party are one and the same.</p>
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<p>The anti-Brexit group Best for Britain has referred to the announcement as “two cheeks of the same Brexit arse”.</p>
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<p>Iain Duncan Smith, the former Conservative leader and prominent Brexiter however, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/nov/11/general-election-parties-vie-for-veterans-votes-as-keith-vaz-quits-politics-live?page=with:block-5dc97d6b8f0867dcebfd2c68">said Farage’s announcement</a> was a “good thing” and may help the Conservatives to win a majority, adding: “of course winning a majority is critical if you want to deliver Brexit and Boris to stay.”</p>
<p>The Brexit party clearly believes it can do well against Labour. And there is some evidence for this. In its heyday, UKIP challenged in key Labour seats and came very close to a by-election gain in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Heywood_and_Middleton_by-election">Heywood and Middleton</a> in 2014. </p>
<p>At the time, then deputy leader Paul Nuttall was openly calling for a strategy of focusing on northern Labour seats. But intervention in Labour-held seats could well split the anti-Labour vote and so keep incumbents in place. Indeed, it seems the <a href="https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/is-nigel-farage-a-threat-to-labour/#.Xcl6wTP7SUn">Brexit Party is more of a threat</a> to the Conservatives than to Labour.</p>
<p>As ever in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-message-is-clear-its-time-to-put-first-past-the-post-out-to-pasture-40984">UK’s first-past-the-post system</a>, much will depend on which challenger party can claim the mantle of most likely to succeed. And of course, if the start of the campaigning is anything to go by, it appears voters can’t take anything for granted.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=140&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/300096/original/file-20191104-88414-1yh2yvf.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=176&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/newsletters/the-daily-newsletter-2?utm_source=TCUK&utm_medium=linkback&utm_campaign=TCUKGE2019&utm_content=GEBannerB">Click here to subscribe to our newsletter if you believe this election should be all about the facts.</a></em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/126794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Keaveney is a member of the Liberal Democrats</span></em></p>“We now have a leave alliance”.Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1212662019-07-31T11:57:04Z2019-07-31T11:57:04ZRemain Alliance – can it halt Brexit and beat Boris Johnson?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/286418/original/file-20190731-186819-a8v9ej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/download/success?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.shutterstock.com%2Fgatekeeper%2FW3siZSI6MTU2NDU5NTA3MiwiYyI6Il9waG90b19zZXNzaW9uX2lkIiwiZGMiOiJpZGxfNTMyODI1NjI3IiwiayI6InBob3RvLzUzMjgyNTYyNy9tZWRpdW0uanBnIiwibSI6MSwiZCI6InNodXR0ZXJzdG9jay1tZWRpYSJ9LCI5WHNzSUVJM3RtNVJ5N2xDdkhKMUtQRHBJK2ciXQ%2Fshutterstock_532825627.jpg&pi=33421636&m=532825627&src=nnQAZ4T0bz73r6sZhDL_Kw-1-45">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>This week’s by-election in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/29/lib-dems-quiet-bollocks-to-brexit-brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection">Brecon and Radnorshire</a> will be the first formal test of the so-called Remain Alliance. The unusually short list of candidates in this contest is partly because parties such as the <a href="https://www.countytimes.co.uk/news/17738072.brecon-and-radnorshire-by-election-green-party-not-contesting-seat/">Green Party</a> and Plaid Cymru, have stood down in favour of the Liberal Democrats. Campaign visits have also been made by those who originally formed Change UK, such as former Conservatives MPs <a href="https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor">Anna Soubry</a> and <a href="https://order-order.com/2019/07/27/heidi-meets-the-rees-moggs-on-the-campaign-trail/">Heidi Allen</a>. </p>
<p>It is rare in British politics for parties to stand down in favour of their usual competitors. And while this isn’t the first occurrence, or the first initiative, the Brecon agreements could well lead to something more formal. A little earlier in the summer, former Change UK (now Independent Group for Change) leader Heidi Allen launched <a href="https://www.facebook.com/unitetoremain/">Unite to Remain</a>. The idea is for Remain-supporting parties to work together to maximise the chance of electoral, and therefore policy, success. This would include the use of a common title or strapline to make the point. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-boris-johnson-can-win-a-snap-election-and-what-the-others-can-do-to-stop-him-121058">How Boris Johnson can win a snap election – and what the others can do to stop him</a>
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<p>There have been attempts to achieve a common purpose in the past. The <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/england">2017 general election</a>, for example, saw the promotion of the so-called Progressive Alliance (of which more later). But what marks out the latest attempt is the move to <a href="https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/who-we-are-and-what-we-do/party-registration-applications/view-current-applications">register a name</a> and logo (Remain Alliance) with the Electoral Commission. Current electoral law means that ballot papers can only include registered names and logos (or the word “Independent”).</p>
<h2>Tribalism</h2>
<p>To understand whether or not the current initiative can succeed, it is worth looking at cross-party cooperation, or the lack of it, in the past.</p>
<p>British politics is usually very tribal. This tribalism has meant that past efforts at cooperation have generally been motivated by negative factors, such as a desire to defeat a particular party (usually the Conservatives). </p>
<p>But the nature of the electoral system also means that tactics could trump tribalism. In a <a href="https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/first-past-the-post/">first-past-the-post system</a>, which is used for UK parliamentary elections, a horse-race narrative often develops. It is in the interests of a challenger party to appear as the only participant with a chance to overtake the favourite and win. </p>
<p>This in turn means supporters of lower placed, unlikely-to-win parties are targeted to “lend” their votes to defeat a less-preferred option. This has given birth to idea that only certain parties are worth supporting.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-boris-johnson-draws-on-the-past-to-rule-in-the-present-with-a-little-help-from-myth-120863">How Boris Johnson draws on the past to rule in the present – with a little help from myth</a>
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<p>Resistance, however, can come from the candidates and activists of those lower-placed parties. While the Green Party did stand down in favour of the Liberal Democrats in the 2016 <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38178486">Richmond Park by-election</a> when the Lib-Dems successfully took the seat from Zac Goldsmith, for example, parts of the local Green Party felt very aggrieved and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/28/caroline-lucas-green-party-richmond-park-byelection-lib-dems">voiced their annoyance</a> quite publicly. This in turn means that cooperative arrangements are often rare. </p>
<h2>Who wins, and loses?</h2>
<p>It can be very difficult to negotiate cooperation, particularly when one party will feel it is losing out. Anyone who thinks this is easy needs to look further into the SDP-Liberal Alliance.</p>
<p>The SDP was formed in 1981 and almost immediately began working with the existing Liberal Party. The idea was that one of either party would contest each parliamentary seat. This was generally achieved, but only after tortuous negotiations which rather ruined the image of cooperation and which are well described by participants such as the then MP, now Lord, <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fourth-Among-Equals-Autobiography-Rodgers/dp/1902301366">Bill Rogers</a> and the authors <a href="https://www.amazon.com/SDP-Birth-Death-Social-Democratic/dp/0198280505">Ivor Crewe and Anthony King</a>.</p>
<p>In fact, the Croydon North West by-election in 1981 was fought by the Liberal <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/03/bill-pitt-obituary">Bill Pitt</a> – rather than by the leaders’ preferred option, Shirley Williams – because Pitt simply refused to budge. Pitt went on to win. </p>
<p>Of course, parties do not need to be working together explicitly for voters, or organisations, to urge tactical outcomes. While tribalism has a long history in UK politics, so too do attempts to persuade voters to make tactical decisions.</p>
<p>TV87, for example, referenced in <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00992239">an article in Political Behaviour</a>, was a campaign set up to focus voters’ minds on the possibility of lending votes in the 1987 election. And it became common for publications and campaigns to produce lists of seats where incumbents were vulnerable to temporary tactics.</p>
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<span class="caption">Anna Soubry: leader of Independent Group for Change.</span>
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<p>The current initiative, which goes well beyond leaving decisions to voters alone, can perhaps best be judged against more recent projects. The 2017 general election saw the promotion of the so-called Progressive Alliance. The thinking was that Progressive parties (generally centre-left or left wing) could stand down for each other in seats where this might help defeat a Tory, or assist a vulnerable Progressive incumbent. The book <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/All-Together-Now-Progressive-Alliance/dp/1785902865/ref=sr_1_3?keywords=All+Together+Now+Langford&qid=1564569471&s=books&sr=1-3">All Together Now</a> by Barry Langford lists 42 seats in which this happened, but it was not always successful and it was only really the Green party which played a full part.</p>
<h2>So can the Remain Alliance work?</h2>
<p>The Brecon and Radnorshire by-election result may provide part of an answer, although we need to remember that this has been a <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/w28.stm">Lib-Dem seat in the past</a> and the party has been campaigning there for some time (in other words, the cooperation between parties may not be the crucial factor here).</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/brexit-wisdom-of-crowds-proves-effective-predictor-of-britains-chaotic-eu-departure-119906">Brexit: wisdom of crowds proves effective predictor of Britain's chaotic EU departure</a>
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<p>Perhaps more telling will be any negotiations ahead of the forthcoming <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/politics/news/105609/sheffield-hallam-mp-jared-omara-set-resign-and-trigger-election">Sheffield Hallam</a> by-election as well as what happens when more than one party has a justifiable claim to stand.</p>
<p>The big issue, however, must be Labour’s role and how one can define a Remain party. Labour played no active part in the 2017 Progressive Alliance, so what would the Remain Alliance do if Labour was the clear challenger to the Conservatives, or Brexit party, in a tight contest? Only time will tell, but the answer hangs on whether or not Jeremy Corbyn ever comes out as an unequivocal supporter of either Leave or Remain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121266/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paula Keaveney is a member of the Liberal Democrats and has seen plenty of election and by election campaigns up close.</span></em></p>Cooperation is far from easy in the furious tribalism of Westminster.Paula Keaveney, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Edge Hill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/791292017-06-09T14:31:07Z2017-06-09T14:31:07ZLandslide for Welsh Tories fails to materialise as Labour and Plaid consolidate their hold<p>For Wales, the short path to this election has been anything but an easy one. After initial polling suggested it was going to be <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-04-24/draft-not-for-publication-the-end-of-labour-wales/">a landslide win for the Welsh Conservatives</a>, many were left wondering just how much of a traditional Labour heartland the nation could truly be.</p>
<p>But as the weeks of campaigning wore on opinions started to change, to the point where it was predicted that Labour would not only hold their 25 seats but <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/06/07/final-call-the-last-welsh-poll-of-the-campaign/">take a further two</a> back from the Conservatives.</p>
<p>It’s safe to say that on the night, however, Labour exceeded all expectations in Wales. Ending the night with 28 of the 40 seats and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-40195154">48.9% of the vote</a>. The party has outperformed every single Wales-only poll over the course of the campaign, as well as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2017-40171454">the exit poll</a>, where it was forecast that the Conservatives would take five seats from Labour.</p>
<p>Welsh Labour – and it is important to make that distinction, for it led a campaign of “<a href="https://theconversation.com/welsh-labour-is-distancing-itself-from-corbyn-but-its-manifesto-reveals-shared-ambitions-78118">shared ambitions</a>” with the national party and Jeremy Corbyn in the background – has now achieved its highest share of the vote in Wales <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2001/results_constituencies/uk_breakdown/wales_1.stm">since 2001</a>. </p>
<p>Though the Conservative Party tried its best to take some of the more marginal seats between it and Labour, such as <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/welsh-tory-anger-over-imposed-12962029">Bridgend and Newport West</a>, Labour successfully defended all of its 25 seats and took a further three (<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000046">Gower</a>, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000051">Cardiff North</a>, and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000060">Vale of Clwyd</a>) from the Conservatives. This is Labour’s best performance in terms of seat share <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/region_10.stm">since 2005</a> and extends their electoral dominance in Wales to 26 general elections in a row. </p>
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<h2>Welsh Conservatives</h2>
<p>Despite shock gains in 2015 – the party picked up the Gower constituency, which had been under Labour control for 100 years, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-wales-32639473">by just 27 votes</a> – the Welsh Conservatives have continued their historical trend of performing considerably worse in Wales than in England. The best they have fared in the past century was to hold <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2013/10/09/the-history-of-one-party-dominance-in-wales-part-2-labour-hegemony/">14 of the then 38 seats in 1983</a>. Though this dropped year on year until 1997, when the Welsh Conservatives held no seats, the <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2013/10/15/the-history-of-one-party-dominance-in-wales-part-3-1999-2011-hegemony-under-challenge/">more recent upward trend</a> seen in elections in 2005 (three seats), 2010 (eight) and 2015 (11) may have given them reason to hope.</p>
<p>But hope is never enough – and the Labour Party recaptured Gower by 3,269 votes, along with <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000060">Vale of Clwyd</a>, which was taken from Labour with <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-wales-32633900">a margin of 237 votes</a> in 2015. The previously Conservative-held Cardiff North is more of a curious change, with no small margin to explain away its switch to Labour. <a href="http://www.leighrayment.com/commons/Ccommons2.htm">Seven of its past nine MPs</a> have been Conservative, and the 2015 gap in votes between Labour and Conservative was in the thousands. </p>
<p>Alongside these losses, the Conservatives’ targeted victories in Newport West, Bridgend, Wrexham, Alyn and Deeside and Delyn all failed to materialise too, as the party lost or failed to take ground to Labour in both north and south. </p>
<p>Despite losing seats, the Conservatives did have some success: its vote share increased across Wales by 6.4 percentage points, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-40195154">from 27.2% in 2015 to 33.6%</a>. </p>
<h2>Plaid Cymru and Lib Dems</h2>
<p>It was a strange night for Plaid Cymru one that ended with the party <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-mid-wales-40209092">taking the Liberal Democrats’ only seat</a>, Ceredigion, by <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000064">just 104 votes</a>. Plaid also held on to its three seats – Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionnydd, and Carmarthen East & Dinefwr – taking its total number of seats in Westminster to four.</p>
<p>Ceredigion has been <a href="http://www.leighrayment.com/commons/Ccommons2.htm">mostly Liberal since the 1800s</a>, though in 1992 and 2000 Cynog Dafis and Simon Thomas did respectively hold the seat for Plaid Cymru. Liberal Democrat Mark Williams was <a href="http://www.libdems.org.uk/mark_williams">in the seat for 12 years</a>, starting in 2005 and ending last night. </p>
<p>Losses in Wales are nothing new for the Liberal Democrats – last year, the party was left with just <a href="http://www.libdems.org.uk/mark_williams">one seat after the Welsh Assembly election</a> when its four others were taken. Now, for the first time since the Liberal Party’s founding in 1859, Wales will have no Liberal representation at Westminster. With only one remaining AM in Wales, and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-politics-39721454">limited representation in local government</a> too, the Liberal Democrats can no longer be considered a significant political player in the country.</p>
<p>Plaid, on the other hand, now has its largest Westminster cohort <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/vote2001/results_constituencies/uk_breakdown/wales_1.stm">since the 2001 general election</a>, when they also had four seats.</p>
<p>It was not an easy election for the party of Wales – early on, representatives were hedging their bets on the potential outcome, saying they were “<a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2017-06-09/plaid-cymru-says-they-wont-win-rhondda/">just about</a>” looking to hold onto their three seats. Overall, their vote share fell nationally by 1.7%. Plaid also failed to gain any of its targets including Ynys Mon, where <a href="http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/anglesey-ieuan-wyn-jones-election-12935377">former leader Ieuan Wyn Jones</a> was standing, as well Llanelli and Rhondda – a Welsh Assembly seat which <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local-news/plaid-leader-leanne-wood-won-11297511">party leader Leanne Wood took</a> from Labour after a tough campaign in 2016.</p>
<p>Still, Plaid will view themselves as one of the few winners in this election on a night where smaller parties saw their vote share squeezed across the UK.</p>
<p>Overall, it is the left that has won out in Wales, winning 32 out of the country’s 40 seats. Many Conservatives may be left to wonder if the party will ever be able to break its seemingly perpetual weakness in Wales.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79129/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jac Larner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Welsh Labour and Plaid exceeded expectations in the election - will the Conservatives ever be able to catch up?Jac Larner, PhD researcher, Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/791692017-06-08T22:23:31Z2017-06-08T22:23:31ZUK election: hung parliament casts doubt over Theresa May’s future<p><em>As the results continue to come in, it appears Theresa May’s snap election gamble has backfired. A hung parliament looks on the cards. Theresa May’s leadership is in grave doubt. The shape of the next government remains unclear. Experts react to the news.</em></p>
<p><strong>Stuart Wilks-Heeg, head of politics, University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>Theresa May is in deep, deep trouble. We know why she called the election; she wanted a bigger majority and a strong mandate ahead of the Brexit negotiations. At the time, it looked like she couldn’t fail, and now it seems that she has failed spectacularly. The campaign has fatally undermined her leadership, and the one thing that could have saved her – if she came through with a strong majority for the Conservative party – hasn’t happened. I think she is finished politically – whether she resigns, or is pushed out by her own party remains to be seen. </p>
<p><strong>Michael Kitson, University Senior Lecturer in International Macroeconomics, University of Cambridge</strong></p>
<p>The election result will bring economic uncertainty and instability not strength and stability. Many will focus on the short-term froth of falls in the pound and in stock markets but of greater concern are the significant long-term problems facing the UK economy. </p>
<p>Brexit is the most pressing issue: a common refrain was that an increased majority would provide Theresa May with more bargaining power over the terms of withdrawal. Well that cunning plan has gone down the drain. If the Conservatives form a minority government, the prime minister (whoever that may be) will have to balance the demands of fervent Brexit hardliners on their backbenches while confronted with an emboldened opposition. </p>
<p>As it stands, there is no coherent plan for Brexit, a failure often justified under the convenient veil of “not showing one’s hand”. Of additional concern is that there is an absence of a “long-term economic plan” – a soundbite that left the government with George Osborne. The economic strategy of the Conservatives is at best inchoate and, at worst, incoherent. It is a mixture of austerity-lite combined with an ill-defined industrial policy that will do little to increase productivity in the economy. We must wait to see if a new economic strategy emerges but a minority government is more likely to expend energy on short-term survival rather than planning for growth. </p>
<p><strong>Robin Pettit, senior lecturer in comparative politics, Kingston University</strong></p>
<p>Some big names went tonight. Amber Rudd survived in Hastings and Rye, but only just, serving as an indication of the kind of night the Conservatives have had. Former SNP leader Alex Salmond was ousted, as was former Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg – perhaps in a delayed backlash by young voters against tuition fees. There are some parallels to be drawn here. These high-profile losses suggest that both parties campaigned on issues which were largely felt to be settled: the SNP on a second Scottish independence referendum, and the Liberal Democrats on a second EU referendum, once a deal had been negotiated – neither of which the British people particularly wanted. Rather, there seems to be an acceptance of Brexit more generally – just not of Theresa May’s version. </p>
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<h2>Labour</h2>
<p><strong>Richard Murphy, professor of practice in international political economy, City, University of London</strong></p>
<p>Labour has had an exceptional night. Many will be feeling euphoric. But the reality is that it has not won and it seems incredibly unlikely that it could put together any form of Progressive Alliance. With a hung parliament on the cards it is almost certain that the next election campaign has already begun. The battle for a majority is now underway. To achieve this Labour has three tasks to concentrate on.</p>
<p>The first is to present a coherent Brexit plan. The second is to end its infighting and build cohesion behind an agreed policy platform. Third, it has to shatter the magic money tree myth by getting people to understand that its macroeconomic policy reflects <a href="https://theconversation.com/jeremy-corbyn-and-the-economics-of-the-real-world-47314">the way the world really works</a>.</p>
<p>Labour has done well. But in a few months it may have to do even better to get into government. And to everyone’s surprise that is now politically and economically plausible. </p>
<p><strong>Ben Williams, tutor in politics and political theory, University of Salford</strong></p>
<p>The Tories had estimated that the vast bulk of the collapsing UKIP vote would go to them in this election, particularly in the industrial north. Some claimed the party had <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2017-06-08/joe-pike-theresa-mays-yorkshire-visits-looked-to-have-been-for-nothing/">adopted</a> an “M62 strategy” and sought to gain multiple parliamentary gains along the corridor of this motorway spanning across Lancashire and Yorkshire. But that doesn’t seem to have happened and a whole range of key target seats – such as Chester, Halifax and Darlington – that the Conservatives hoped to gain have stayed Labour red as a result. Even the very marginal seat of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000543">Barrow</a>, held by arch-Corbyn critic John Woodcock, has remained Labour against the odds.</p>
<p>But while Labour has performed as strongly as ever in its inner-city northern city strongholds such as Manchester, Sheffield and Liverpool, it was seen as vulnerable in the northern suburbs and smaller towns. However, its vote has proved to be resilient, fuelled by a higher national turnout and an influx of younger voters, as has been evident across the country.</p>
<p>Labour has even gone on to make some surprising northern gains such as the long-shot of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000645">Colne Valley</a> in Yorkshire, as well as other seats that the Conservatives were expected to hold fairly comfortably, such as Bury North, Warrington South and Weaver Vale. But such gains were somewhat sporadic, and Labour failed to gain various other northern seats that the party held prior to 2010 and which would be required to form a majority Labour government, while also failing to regain the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000647">Copeland</a> seat it lost in a by-election in early 2017.</p>
<p>The results in the north, while not particularly brilliant for Labour, were crucially better than expected. This in itself indicates some degree of appeal and durability to Corbynism outside of its perceived inner-city and London strongholds.</p>
<h2>Brexit</h2>
<p><strong>Kathryn Simpson, lecturer in politics and public services, Manchester Metropolitan University</strong></p>
<p>Dubbed the Brexit election, this general election provided very little clarity and specific details on what Brexit negotiations would be and what a post-Brexit UK would look like. And the electorate has recognised this.</p>
<p>There will not be a <a href="https://theconversation.com/strong-and-stable-leadership-inside-the-conservatives-election-slogan-77121">strong and stable government</a> by the time Brexit negotations begin on June 19. That will have a robust impact on Brexit.</p>
<p>The Brexit clock started ticking when May triggered Article 50 in March. Taking six weeks out of the <a href="https://blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2017/03/24/an-article-50-timeline-infographic/">two-year Brexit negotiating window</a> to conduct a general election was risky, as it has eaten into the time available to deal with the EU. Now, with so much uncertainty about how the next government will be formed, more time will inevitably be lost.</p>
<p><strong>Daniel Fitzpatrick, lecturer in politics, Aston University</strong></p>
<p>In an election called to secure a clear mandate for Brexit, the result is no obvious mandate for any party. The mandate for the Conservative version of hard Brexit is in tatters, while a second independence referendum in Scotland is moot given the swing away from the Scottish National Party towards the unionist parties – the Scottish Conservatives particularly.</p>
<p>Political commentators are fond of naming elections, as a shorthand for the dominant issue of the day: the 1983 “Falklands” election, the 2005 “Iraq” election. Psephologists will tell you that such retrospective rationalisations do little to convey the complexities of voting behaviour.</p>
<p>But, rarely has an election been characterised so one-dimensionally before the campaign even begun. Although labelled the “Brexit election” by the Conservatives, Theresa May did little to establish that narrative beyond her supposed leadership credentials, which, to put it mildly, faltered. It figured surprisingly little in the election campaigns of the other mainstream parties, except for the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>Taking a largely ambivalent stance on EU, Labour has gained Remain seats in London and the South East and retained and won back marginal Leave seats in the North. It looks like neither the so-called Leave or Remain vote offers a reliable indication of the new electoral map. It has figured in certain parts of the country, but nowhere near as decisive as imagined. </p>
<h2>Scotland</h2>
<p><strong>William McDougall, lecturer in politics, Glasgow Caledonian University</strong></p>
<p>The Conservative party are performing much better in Scotland than anywhere else. In that sense, Scotland is again having its own election, different from the rest of the UK. This is probably due to the fact that the Scottish Conservatives have been able to run a separate campaign, disassociating themselves from Theresa May and the poor campaign the Conservatives have run in the UK as a whole. They’ve been able to focus on an anti-independence, anti-SNP message. But that does mean that it’s less clear what else the Scottish Conservative MPs stand for. Once they start voting in Westminster, we’ll have a clearer idea of where they stand on other policies.</p>
<p>The Scottish Conservatives could now play quite a vital role in the Westminster parliament. It could make all the difference for May as she attempts to hold on to power. It’s ironic: people often say that Scotland never gets to influence UK election results, and now it could be the Scottish Conservatives who keep the party on top. It puts their leader Ruth Davidson in a strong position within the Conservative party, although it might not have an impact on the direction of Brexit: the new Scottish Conservative MPs are likely to behave themselves in that respect.</p>
<h2>Liberal Democrats</h2>
<p><strong>Matthew Cole, teaching fellow, department of history, University of Birmingham</strong></p>
<p>The immediate evidence is that the two-party system has returned with a vengeance after a 30-year slumber, sweeping away UKIP and penning the Lib Dems back in their 2015 electoral ghetto.</p>
<p>Already three of the eight seats they won in 2015 have been lost, all in the north of England. Party leader Tim Farron was made to endure a recount in his own constituency, and it looks likely that the party’s overall share of the national vote has fallen back from its dismal 2015 low of 7.7%. The hope of reaching out to the 48% of Britons who voted to remain in the EU became a bitterly ironic dream, spiked by the triggering of Article 50 before the campaign; the plan for a second referendum has been marginalised politically.</p>
<p>There are silver linings to the cloud, however. The Liberal Democrats have established a core of representation in the capital and in Scotland, adding experienced and media-friendly figures to their enlarged parliamentary team – notably Vince Cable. Tim Farron can also take some credit for challenging and undermining the harsh version of Brexit which failed to secure Theresa May’s ambitions for a landslide majority. And the hung parliament which is emerging may be a productive environment in which to dilute that plan. </p>
<p>Compared to their highest hopes this election outcome must be disheartening for Liberal Democrat campaigners; but set against their worst fears it may in due course come to look like a stage in a process of consolidation.</p>
<h2>Northern Ireland</h2>
<p><strong>John Garry, professor of political behaviour, Queen’s University Belfast</strong></p>
<p>It seems that the two big parties have swept away all the others in Northern Ireland. Apart from an independent unionist candidate retaining her seat, the hardline unionist party, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), have had a great electoral night at the expense of the Ulster Unionist Party, which has lost its two seats. On the nationalist side, it has been a dreadful election for the moderate Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP), which has lost its three seats. The more hardline nationalists, Sinn Fein, have dramatically increased their support. </p>
<p>With the cross-party Alliance also winning no seats, the overall picture emerging is of a more polarised politics in Northern Ireland. This bodes ill for the kind of compromise and conciliation that will be needed to re-establish a power-sharing government – a process that was effectively put on hold once Theresa May called this snap Westminster election.</p>
<p>It is ironic that both the DUP and Sinn Fein, which are finding it difficult to form a government in Northern Ireland, were regarded as potentially key players in the election night commentary on government formation at Westminster. Would Sinn Fein change its policy of abstention and possibly prop up a Jeremy Corbyn premiership? “No”, was <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3758550/gerry-adams-congratulates-jeremy-corbyn-after-shock-election-2017-exit-poll-result/">the quick response</a> from the Sinn Fein leadership. It’s more plausible that the DUP could play a crucial role in sustaining a Conservative administration.</p>
<p><strong>Neil Matthews, lecturer in British politics, University of Bristol</strong></p>
<p>This election has arguably produced the best of results for Northern Ireland. The granite-hard Brexit promised by Theresa May – a scenario which would have disproportionately severe consequences for the region – has been effectively shelved.</p>
<p>In the weeks before the election both the European Union and UK government were at pains to stress the importance of Northern Ireland to the Brexit negotiations, declaring it a “first order” issue. Both agreed that any deal should see as “soft” a border as possible between Northern Ireland (i.e. the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (i.e. the EU). The hard gains of the peace process and the Good Friday Agreement were not to be trampled on by Brexit. </p>
<p>Those hard gains were, however, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-northern-ireland-peace-process-george-mitchell-stormont-good-friday-agreement-a7600086.html">widely seen to be under threat</a> from May’s Brexit plan. If she returned from Brussels without a deal – a scenario countenanced by the Conservative manifesto – then any bespoke arrangement for Northern Ireland would have inevitably been chucked out with the bath water. With this election result a Brexit deal that is sympathetic to the unique needs of Northern Ireland remains very much alive.</p>
<p>And, of course, Northern Ireland’s hand in the Brexit negotiations is likely to be strengthened further by the makeup of the next parliament and the precarious position of the Conservative government. Short of a majority, the government could well strike-up an arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Those ten DUP MPs – a team of canny and battle-hardened negotiators – would inevitably look to extract a great deal from the Tories in return for their support. Among other things, this shopping list would include a “frictionless” Irish border, as well as no internal UK border (between Britain and Northern Ireland). </p>
<p>The DUP’s election campaign promise was “to make sure Northern Ireland gets the best Brexit deal”. This result goes some way to ensuring that. </p>
<h2>Wales</h2>
<p><strong>Laura McAllister, professor of public policy and the governance of Wales, University of Cardiff</strong></p>
<p>Labour has cemented <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-live-updates-13150349">its grip on Wales</a> with three important gains. Voters mainly opted for one of the two main UK-wide parties, with the combined total vote share for Labour and the Conservatives at 84% – the highest since the 1960s.</p>
<p>Labour’s share of the vote increased by 12% points, making something of a mockery of the very early polls, which suggested that the Conservatives would win Wales for the first time since the middle of the 19th century. The Conservative vote was up 6%, but it is seats that count and the party lost three.</p>
<p>Labour still lost the election overall, for the the third time in a row, but once again it won Wales convincingly, underlining the strength of its reach and the depth of its dominance. It was an unmitigated disaster for the Liberal Democrats, which lost their single seat in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000064">Ceredigon</a> to Plaid Cymru. The Liberal Democrats now have no representation in Wales for the first time in the party’s history.</p>
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<p>Plaid Cyrmu’s overall vote share was down 2% points to 10%, but with four MPs it gained its highest ever number of seats. Despite disappointments in the southern valleys and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000041">Ynys Mon</a>, Leanne Wood’s leadership of the party was probably saved by the bell with the Ceredigon result.</p>
<h2>The Midlands</h2>
<p><strong>Parveen Akhtar, lecturer in political science, Aston University</strong></p>
<p>The Tories had a rough night in the Midlands, and they won’t have been expecting one. Their chances looked very different for them in May, when former John Lewis boss <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/former-john-lewis-boss-wins-west-midlands-mayoralty-andy-street">Andy Street</a>, won a stunning victory against Labour’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/15/sion-simon-west-midlands-mayoral-candidate-seeks-to-tell-a-different-labour-story">Siôn Simon</a> to become West Midlands Mayor. On a low turnout of 26.7%, Street won 50.4% against Simon’s 49.6% – hardly a thrashing, but a stunning win nonetheless in traditional Labour territory. </p>
<p>Perfectly logical then that Conservatives should target key marginal seats in Birmingham, birthplace of Nick Timothy, one of the two brains that make up <a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/theresa-mays-poor-campaign-has-exposed-her-dependence-on?utm_term=.ehr9B8l7J#.yu0WoPL63">Team May</a>. But in the end, as across the country, the Conservatives’ efforts simply didn’t pay off.</p>
<p>Labour held on to key seats in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000560">Edgbaston</a>, <a href="http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/general-election-results-northfield-2017-13057432">Northfield</a> and <a href="http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/general-election-2017-erdington-results-13053464">Erdington</a>. In Edgbaston, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40212954">Preet Gill</a> made history by becoming the first female Sikh MP in the UK; she won 24,124 votes, increasing Labour’s 2015 majority by 10%. She takes over from pro-Brexit Labour MP Gisela Stuart, who had held the seat since 1997.</p>
<p>Other big stories from the Midlands include Labour’s capture of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-40211171">Warwick and Leamington</a>, a bellweather constituency where Matt Western won 25,227 votes – a 1,206 majority over the Conservative candidate. The Tories can draw some small consolation from unseating Labour in <a href="http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/general-election-results-walsall-north-13066378">Walsall North</a>; they also retained <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000868">Nuneaton</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000974">Stoke-on-Trent South</a> and comfortably sailed to victory in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000931">Solihull</a>. But as per the national results, tonight was clearly Labour’s night.</p>
<h2>Vote share</h2>
<p><strong>James Tilley, professor of politics, University of Oxford</strong></p>
<p>Poll leads for the Conservatives ahead of the election varied enormously. Much of the variation, although by no means all, has been due to the way that the pollsters predicted people’s likelihood to turnout.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/173084/original/file-20170609-20851-1ov0xl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">How did you vote?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/oscepa/17233690119/sizes/l">oscepa/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>The polls with the highest leads for the Conservatives tended to predict low voting rates among younger people and people in working class jobs. We’ve seen this pattern of non-voting for the past few elections, arguably because these groups had become disillusioned with Labour. The polls with the lowest leads for the Conservatives assumed that these two groups would turn out to vote at higher levels than in 2015. The argument here was that Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is a more attractive proposition to more economically left-wing people. So who was right? </p>
<p>Obviously, we won’t know the actual result and we won’t know exact rates of turnout by age and social class for several months until the British Election Survey reports back, but the exit poll does seem to suggest that young people have turned out in larger numbers than at the past few elections.</p>
<p>Generally campaigns are not thought to matter enormously, but this may be the exception that proves the rule. Labour has evidently either converted some people who said they would vote Conservative a few months ago, or mobilised people who said that they wouldn’t vote.</p>
<p>It’s likely that both conversion and particularly mobilisation have been higher among younger voters. While it’s not a successful night for Labour in that it is still predicted to have 50 fewer seats than the Conservatives, at this stage it appears a clear success for the Labour campaign strategy.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/79169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Tilley receives funding from the ESRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Williams a member of the association of Teachers and Lecturers, the Higher Education Academy and the Labour Party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel Fitzpatrick receives funding from the ESRC and EPSRC. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Garry is the Principal Investigator on the ESRC funded ‘Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2016’ and the Principal Investigator on the ESRC funded ‘The UK/Ireland Border and the Stability of Peace and Security in Northern Ireland’ study focusing on Brexit and Northern Ireland. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laura McAllister is a board member of the Institute for Welsh Affairs think tank.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Michael Kitson has received funding from BIS, HEFCE, EPSRC, ESRC, AHRC, NERC and the MRC.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Parveen Akhtar is the recipient of British Academy and Economic and Social Research Council research grants.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Murphy owns and directs Tax Research LLP. He has been funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust, Friends' Provident Foundation, Joffe Trust and others. He has worked for a number of UK trade unions and has been an economic advisor to Jeremy Corbyn.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robin Pettitt is a member of the Women's Equality Party, and a member of Loughton Residents Association. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Wilks-Heeg has previously received funding for research or consultancy on electoral matters from the UK Electoral Commission and the UK Cabinet Office.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kathryn Simpson, Matthew Cole, Neil Matthews, and William McDougall do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Rolling coverage of the general election results from expert academics.James Tilley, Professor of Politics, University of OxfordBen Williams, Tutor in Politics and Political Theory, University of SalfordDaniel Fitzpatrick, Lecturer in Politics, Aston UniversityJohn Garry, School of History, Anthropology, Philosohy and Politics, Queen's University BelfastKathryn Simpson, Lecturer in Politics and Public Services, Manchester Metropolitan UniversityLaura McAllister, Professor of Public Policy, Cardiff UniversityMatthew Cole, Teaching Fellow, Department of History, University of BirminghamMichael Kitson, University Senior Lecturer in International Macroeconomics, Cambridge Judge Business SchoolNeil Matthews, Lecturer in British Politics, University of BristolParveen Akhtar, Lecturer in Political Science, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston UniversityRichard Murphy, Professor of Practice in International Political Economy, City, University of LondonRobin Pettitt, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Politics, Kingston UniversityStuart Wilks-Heeg, Head of Politics, University of LiverpoolWilliam McDougall, Lecturer in Politics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/786462017-05-31T21:47:36Z2017-05-31T21:47:36ZMissing May: she was damned if she did and damned if she didn’t join the debate<p>Jeremy Corbyn’s late decision to participate in the BBC’s election debate injected some interest and potential excitement into an event that had risked being ignored.</p>
<p>With the <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-gain-tory-victory-theresa-may-general-election-8-june-yougov-opinium-polls-a7709961.html">polls narrowing</a> in Labour’s favour and with the party leader having performed well in the campaign so far, he hoped to maintain the momentum and increase pressure on the Conservatives. Despite speculation throughout the day about the intentions of Theresa May, the prime minister stuck with her original decision to stay away and send the home secretary, Amber Rudd, to represent the Conservatives in her place. Corbyn and Rudd also faced the representatives of the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP and Plaid Cymru in the debate.</p>
<p>The six questions put to the politicians by the invited audience were fairly predictable, covering living conditions, Brexit and immigration, public finances, national security, climate change and leadership. There were no real surprises, with Corbyn and other left-leaning politicians – Caroline Lucas of the Greens, Angus Robertson of the SNP and Leanne Wood of Plaid Cymru, as well as Tim Farron of the Liberal Democrats – repeatedly condemning the government for its cuts to welfare and public services.</p>
<p>Paul Nuttall of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) came under frequent attack from other leaders, while making his party’s stock points on Brexit, the necessity of immigration controls, and terrorism.</p>
<p>Rudd generally found herself in the position of defending the government’s record, although she also launched a number of attacks on Corbyn, particularly over what she called his “fantasy economics” and his votes against anti-terror laws. Corbyn came under occasional attack from Nuttall on terrorism. Pressed by the moderator, Mishal Husain, Corbyn also stumbled in defining what he meant by a “fair” immigration system.</p>
<p>Corbyn didn’t make the most of his late entry into the debate, although he didn’t make any obvious gaffes either. Of the smaller parties’ leaders, Lucas performed best, setting out a clear liberal-progressive vision of a fairer society, based on freedom of movement, opposition to Trident, and combating climate change. But it will probably have little effect, as the Greens are leaking votes to Labour, which now appears to be attracting the bulk of the anti-Conservative vote in England and Wales.</p>
<p>Was May right not to turn up? She received inevitable and trenchant criticism from the other leaders, particularly from Farron at the end, although not so much from Corbyn. That was perhaps surprising given the fanfare that surrounded Corbyn’s late decision to take part. He might have been expected to make more of May’s weakness in staying away.</p>
<p>In reality, May was damned if she did and damned if she didn’t. By not taking part, she was accused of running scared from the voters. But if she had turned up, she could have been accused of dancing to Corbyn’s tune, being seen to follow his lead in participating rather than following her own judgement. It would have been mocked as another u-turn.</p>
<p>As it was, the format of the debate would not have played to May’s strengths. She would have been angrily assailed by the other leaders and found herself having to shout to make herself heard or completely drowned out. She doesn’t have the type of combativeness in debate that Rudd possesses and used to some effect here. All in all, despite some embarrassing barbs about her non-appearance, May was probably better off sticking with her original decision.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/78646/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Quinn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>She faced criticism for not taking part in the BBC head-to-head, but the PM would have struggled had she done another late U-turn.Tom Quinn, Senior Lecturer, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/596092016-05-23T09:21:17Z2016-05-23T09:21:17ZHow Plaid leader Leanne Wood is building a new era of Welsh politics<p>After a tense week of behind-the-scenes talks, Labour’s Carwyn Jones has been <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labours-carwyn-jones-named-first-7993827">reconfirmed as first minister in Wales</a> – but not without a tense standoff with Leanne Wood, the charismatic leader of the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru. The deadlock was finally broken after a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36307854">week of negotiations</a> between senior figures in both parties – but Welsh politics will never be the same again.</p>
<p>The Welsh Assembly has 21 <a href="http://www.assembly.wales/en/abthome/role-of-assembly-how-it-works/Pages/governance-of-wales.aspx">areas of responsibility</a> including health, environment and housing, and comprises 60 seats. Of these, <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-s-voting-system-explained-or-at-least-made-a-tiny-bit-simpler-bca7453169d9#.k74i4rud6">40 are elected</a> on a constituency-based first-past-the-post vote, while the other 20 are elected from regional lists to represent one of five Welsh regions (four assembly members (AMs) per region). Since it was created in 1999, Labour has been the largest party in the assembly but never won an outright absolute majority. Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, has played both the official opposition role (1999) and joined Labour in a coalition in 2007.</p>
<p>Following the latest round of elections, and subsequent nominations of the presiding officer (speaker) and her deputy, the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">resulting arithmetic of the assembly</a> was mostly as expected: Labour had 28 seats and the deputy presiding officer; Plaid, 11 and the presiding officer. The Conservatives meanwhile won 11 seats; UKIP seven and the Liberal Democrats won just one seat. Plaid, with the second largest number of seats, became the official opposition.</p>
<p>Though Plaid would surely not have chosen anyone else, the nomination of Wood for first minister (FM) <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/11/carwyn-jones-leanne-wood-tied-welsh-first-minister">surprised many</a>, as it had generally been assumed that Carwyn Jones would take up the role unopposed once again. Even more surprising was Plaid’s subsequent <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/plaid-cymru-really-ask-ukip-11319857">support from UKIP and the Conservatives</a> which pushed Wood and Jones <a href="https://theconversation.com/welsh-assembly-in-deadlock-over-first-minister-vote-so-what-happens-next-59318">into a deadlock</a> (the sole Liberal Democrat AM, Kirsty Williams, supported Labour). In the end, because the presiding officers don’t vote, the two candidates had 29 nominations apiece.</p>
<p>And so, in a matter of days Wood emerged both as her party’s heroine – after dramatically clinching <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/assembly-election-2016-leanne-wood-11292451">a Welsh assembly seat</a> in Rhondda from Labour – and as a <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/wales/news/74892/labour-blasts-hypocritical-plaid-cymru-after-leanne-wood-first">controversial figurehead</a>, following this nomination for the top job.</p>
<p>Many had <a href="http://labourlist.org/2016/05/carwyn-jones-fights-on-after-assembly-reaches-deadlock-in-first-minister-vote/">expected Jones</a> to automatically lead Labour in a minority government. However, in an attempt to show that Labour has no “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-35715683">divine” right to rule</a>, the opposing parties chose another path – though whether this was an orchestrated collaboration <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/plaid-cymru-really-ask-ukip-11319857">remains unconfirmed</a>.</p>
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<p>Bewilderment that Welsh politics had <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-gets-exciting-some-comments-on-the-impasse-in-cardiff-bay-2b8a0a1460b2%23.n4teo6uqh">suddenly got exciting</a> followed, as people wondered just what would happen to their government. Initial reactions, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/12/welsh-labour-plaid-cymru-accusations-assembly-standoff">especially from Labour members</a>, included soundbites about Plaid’s alleged treachery and the sell-off of Wales’ soul to the “evil” Tories and UKIP – though there was some more <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-gets-exciting-some-comments-on-the-impasse-in-cardiff-bay-2b8a0a1460b2%23.jgno3ljej">balanced analysis</a> from commentators who recognised the legitimacy and boldness of Plaid to <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2016-05-11/rt-davies-labour-had-no-divine-right-to-assume-first-ministership/">question Labour’s entitlement</a> to govern Wales without proper consultations and negotiations. This was in stark contrast to 2007, for instance, when parties did engage in negotiations and the prospect of a <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/failed-rainbow-coup-adam-price-10886665">possible “rainbow” coalition</a> between Plaid, the Lib-Dems and the Tories threatened Labour’s access to power. Rhodri Morgan, the outgoing Labour first minister at the time was eventually nominated to form a government three weeks after the elections. </p>
<p>But has Wood, who now takes on the role of leader of the opposition in the Senedd for the first time, been left unscathed by this? And, more importantly, why did no one see this coming? After all, Wood’s background and profile spell out a strongminded and rebellious political figure.</p>
<h2>New kind of leader</h2>
<p>Wood is a product of the Welsh valleys, with strong convictions on gender, the monarchy, the environment and Trident. She became an AM in 2003 and was elected as Plaid leader in March 2012, over two far <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-17388193">more seasoned candidates</a>, thanks to active younger supporters and a platform advocating bold policy changes. Praised by her own party members as a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-17368526">leading communicator resonating</a> across Wales, she marks a double first for Plaid: the first woman and the first non-fluent Welsh speaker to lead the party.</p>
<p>Outside Wales, Leanne Wood and Plaid Cymru were relatively unknown prior to the 2015 general election televised debates. She <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/general-election-2015-plaid-cymru-9092877">capitalised excellently</a> on being given a national platform, however, and emerged as a political leader “speaking for Wales”. Sharing the stage with other national party leaders, she came out <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/leanne-wood-plaid-cymru-leader-whose-politics-were-forged-in-the-valleys-mining-communities-10188354.html">relatively well</a>, winning plaudits for her <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/plaid-leanne-debate-farage-hiv-8975174">admonition of UKIP leader, Nigel Farage</a>. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Leanne Wood battles Nigel Farage in a 2015 general election debate.</span></figcaption>
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<p>When elected leader, Wood inherited a party that had come third in the assembly elections the year before. Plaid’s further electoral record under Wood is a mixed bag: poor EU parliamentary election performance saw Plaid’s vote share decrease by 3.2% from <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/elections/euro/09/html/ukregion_999999.stm">2009</a>, but the party held on to its only MEP. In the 2010 general election, Plaid’s vote share <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2014/09/08/the-electoral-state-of-the-parties-3-plaid-cymru-2">increased marginally by 0.9%</a> from 2010 to 2015 – but that only enabled it to hold on to the three seats it already had.</p>
<p>This year’s assembly elections were the real test but – though there were some <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">modest positive swings</a> in vote share – 1.3% in the constituency vote and 3% in the regional ballot – Plaid won only one seat more than in 2011, but this was enough to give them a strong negotiating hand in the fifth assembly.</p>
<p>Most disappointing however, has been Plaid’s declining record on producing gender-balanced assembly teams, despite Wood’s own strong feminist convictions. Once a pioneer <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/women-representation-westminster-stirbu/">leading on gender equality advances</a> in Wales, Plaid has now regressed significantly. Only four of their 12 AMs are women, down from 45% (7 out of 15) in 2011 elections and, 50% (6 out of 12) in 2003. </p>
<h2>Flexing new muscles</h2>
<p>Despite these results, other aspects of Wood’s leadership are more encouraging. The first minister “episode” is an exemplar of Plaid’s ability to show unity despite being ostracised by Labour and risking losing some of its hard-won support. It is also telling of the party’s <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/wales-gets-exciting-some-comments-on-the-impasse-in-cardiff-bay-2b8a0a1460b2%23.ve2pjaz80">more muscular approach</a>, and its new-found determination to demand Labour’s respect and maximise opportunities to implement its own policies. After all, we can argue that Plaid has capitalised excellently on the very minor electoral gains made on May 5.</p>
<p>No doubt the negotiations with Labour to break the deadlock were tough – but Wood stood her ground. Both parties left posturing aside and <a href="http://labourlist.org/2016/05/first-minister-standoff-in-wales-could-be-at-an-end-as-labour-and-plaid-reach-agreement/">successfully kept the talks out of the media</a>. Being able to secure an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36320916">advanced look at the budget</a> and winning a formal platform for early consultations with Labour via liaison committees on finance, legislation and the constitution are outcomes that should please Wood and do her position no harm at all. </p>
<p>Plaid seems ready to challenge the establishment and the next five years will certainly test the party’s unity and Wood’s ability to build towards further electoral success. No longer content with the <a href="https://medium.com/@LauraMcAllister/one-big-happy-family-the-welsh-political-parties-3ea2fd01ffaa%23.mqd5uc3d1">eternal opposition status</a>, Plaid is growing up under Leanne Wood’s leadership.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59609/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Diana Stirbu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Leanne Wood: socialist, republican, feminist – and the woman who is changing the face of Welsh politics.Diana Stirbu, Senior Lecturer in Public Administration, London Metropolitan UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/593182016-05-12T14:19:56Z2016-05-12T14:19:56ZWelsh Assembly in deadlock over first minister vote – so what happens next?<p>The National Assembly for Wales reconvened following the elections on May 5, only to face perhaps what was one of the most turbulent days in the institution’s short history.</p>
<p>As it stands, the Welsh government is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36268617">without a first minister</a>, the parliamentary vote having resulted in a deadlock, with 29 Assembly Members – 28 from Labour and the Liberal Democrats’ sole AM Kirsty Williams – voting for Labour’s Carwyn Jones. AMs representing Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Conservatives and UKIP all voted for Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood to become first minister.</p>
<p>The news came as a surprise to many polticial commentators, journalists and AMs alike, many of whom had expected Carwyn Jones to take up the mantle once more, having previously held the position of first minister since December 2009. The newly elected presiding officer Elin Jones was <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/2016-05-11/what-do-i-do-now-welsh-assembly-leader-vote-ends-in-tie/">even heard asking</a>, “what do I do now?” before the proceedings were halted.</p>
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<p>If Carwyn Jones was elected, Labour, which holds 29 of the Senedd’s seats – including deputy presiding officer Ann Jones who, like the presiding officer, did not vote in the first minister proceedings – would have sought to form a minority government, having just fallen short of the required majority of 31 seats.</p>
<p>Plaid Cymru, the official opposition, having put forward Leanne Wood for election as first minister would have sought to form a minority government with its 12 AMs. </p>
<p>Labour sources have <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/this-not-episode-borgen--11320115">told the Welsh media</a> that Plaid had been offered a role by Carwyn Jones in creating the “legislative programme and to be included in the budget process from the beginning”, while Labour ran Wales as a minority government. Leader Leanne Wood asked for the first minister vote to be put off for a week but did not ask for further formal talks to take place beforehand.</p>
<p>With no first minister now elected, the assembly must reconvene at some point next week (most likely Tuesday) and attempt the vote again. If no first minister is chosen by June 2, the secretary of state for Wales Alun Cairns could call another election.</p>
<h2>Behind the Senedd</h2>
<p>What is interesting and what might have serious consequences for the parties is the background to how this happened. When Wood first put her name forward it seemed more like a symbolic gesture, telling Welsh Labour that they were not naturally entitled to form a government without a majority. Despite the furore that has surrounded this act, it is not an unheard of gesture. </p>
<p>In late 2014, when Nicola Sturgeon was confirmed as first minister in Scotland following Alex Salmond’s departure, Scottish Conservative leader <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30083422">Ruth Davidson also stood for the position</a>. The difference in this case, however, is that the opposition parties, bar Kirsty Williams, voted for Leanne Wood, and had enough combined votes to prevent the re-election of Carwyn Jones.</p>
<p>Whether this was a pre-arranged act or something Plaid were not aware of, it is fuelling a fairly large amount of debate. It is important to note that there has been no talk of a “rainbow coalition” from any of the parties. If Plaid had formed a minority government, it would almost certainly not last long, as the party would have to rely on Labour support to pass anything through the Senedd. Seemingly confirming that no coalition had been discussed, Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies has stated that the reason his party voted for Leanne Wood was to send a message to Labour – not because of any sort of coalition deal – adding that “Labour had <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2016-05-11/rt-davies-labour-had-no-divine-right-to-assume-first-ministership/">no divine right</a> to assume the first ministership”.</p>
<p>However, AM Neil Hamilton – whose own recent appointment as leader of the UKIP group in the assembly has <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3583159/Neil-Hamilton-ousts-Nathan-Gill-leader-Ukip-Welsh-Assembly.html">been a contentious matter</a> – said late on Wednesday that he had actually been <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/this-not-episode-borgen--11320115">approached by Plaid Cymru</a> on Monday to lobby support for voting for their leader. Plaid has <a href="http://www.plaid2016.wales/fmstatement">denied</a> this meeting occurred. It would certainly be a surprising turn of events given Leanne Wood’s <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/wales/news/74892/labour-blasts-hypocritical-plaid-cymru-after-leanne-wood-first">apparent personal aversion</a> to working with UKIP, a feeling shared by many of Plaid’s members and AMs.</p>
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<p>If there have been no deals, then the story here isn’t particularly interesting. Two parties nominated First Ministers, and came to a draw. If there was some sort of dealing, it is a much more intriguing story, but apart from Hamilton’s claim, there isn’t any evidence at all that there has been.</p>
<p>That has not stopped other parties from making their own decisions on what occured, however: Labour has allegedly already printed leaflets saying that <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36275356">Leanne Wood betrayed those voters</a> who picked her over their candidate in the <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/assembly-election-2016-leanne-wood-11292451">former Welsh valley Labour stronghold, Rhondda</a>.</p>
<p>AMs now have 28 days from the election to choose a new first minister. Whether the matter will be decided quickly or not remains to be seen, it could be that this issue is dealt with fairly succinctly, as there have already been reports that <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-36268617">some UKIP AMs</a> are preparing to back Carwyn Jones, subject to conditions.</p>
<p>The impact of these events on the popularity of Plaid Cymru, however, are likely to be lasting, as many claim the party have made a u-turn on their own previously held standards and that Leanne Wood’s <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/uk-regions/wales/news/74892/labour-blasts-hypocritical-plaid-cymru-after-leanne-wood-first">bid to be first minister is “hypocritical”</a> – regardless of whether it was an intentional act or not.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59318/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jac Larner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Things really didn’t go as expected – and the pressure is on.Jac Larner, PhD researcher, Wales Governance Centre, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/590122016-05-06T10:28:41Z2016-05-06T10:28:41ZWales: UKIP and Plaid gain new assembly seats as Labour holds on to power<p>In the Welsh Assembly elections, much of the story has remained unchanged: Labour has won again, keeping the leading position it has enjoyed since the Senedd was first opened in 1999. </p>
<p>Despite seeing a significant fall in vote share on the last National Assembly election – down <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2016/wales/results">7.9% across all constituencies</a> – Labour is still well ahead of a divided opposition, and held on to <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2016-05-06/leanne-wood-victory-in-rhondda-shock-result/">all but one</a> of its constituency seats. In total, Labour now has 29 out of the 60 seats altogether – coming in well ahead of the field, and holding on to two regional list seats, as well as the three seats it had been projected to lose: Cardiff North, Cardiff Central and Llanelli.</p>
<p>While these elections at least have heralded no surprises for the winner, the race for second place was an altogether very different matter.</p>
<p>For Plaid Cymru, the night was one of mixed fortunes. Party leader <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/06/labour-wales-plaid-cymru-takes-rhondda-plaid-cymru">Leanne Wood won a famous victory in Rhondda</a> – beating former Labour AM Leighton Andrews, who had held the seat for 13 years – with a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36207410">24% swing in votes</a> to the party of Wales. Elsewhere, however, Plaid fell short in all their constituency targets, such as Llanelli and Aberconwy. </p>
<p>The Conservatives were among the big losers of the night, losing three seats and their position as the assembly’s second party. They had begun the campaign hoping to make significant gains, having managed to take former Labour strongholds <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-wales-32639473">Gower</a> and Clwyd in the 2015 General Election. But they lost votes, and regional list seats, allowing Plaid Cymru to reclaim its place as second in the Senedd.</p>
<p>But if the Tories were losers, UKIP were in some ways the biggest winners. Although the party slightly under-performed its vote share in recent polls, the night can only be described as a huge success for UKIP. Never having won a seat before in the assembly, it now has a contingent of seven AMs dotted across the country, elected via the regional lists. Former Conservative MP Mark Reckless, the party’s Wales leader Nathan Gill, and former MP Neil Hamilton were among those who made the “breakthrough”, <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/elections-2016-ukip-win-first-seats-in-welsh-assembly-a7016071.html">in the words of Nigel Farage</a>.</p>
<p>For the Liberal Democrats, party leader Kirsty Williams won an impressive personal victory in Brecon and Radnorshire, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/wales-constituencies/W09000041">increasing her majority by 9.3%</a> – 8,170 votes more than prospective Conservative candidate Gary Price. Following the results announcement, Williams promised that the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36222772">party’s rebuild “begins here”</a>, but with her now being the only Lib-Dem in the chamber (down from six elected in 2011) her party will no longer have official recognition in the assembly.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/59012/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Scully receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. </span></em></p>All eyes were on the race for second place in the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections.Roger Awan-Scully, Professor of Political Science, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/417252015-05-18T14:11:59Z2015-05-18T14:11:59ZA tale of two nations: why the Scottish nationalists outperformed Plaid Cymru<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82005/original/image-20150518-25412-4rlo0o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Will Plaid touch down at the 2016 elections?
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/leanne.wood.714/photos/pb.463813337026688.-2207520000.1431941433./826298374111514/?type=3&theater">Leanne Wood/Facebook</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Imagine the post-apocalyptic scenario, where the Welsh rugby team is thrashed 56-3 by Scotland. Amidst the doomsday spectre of an empty Millennium Stadium would be calls for the coach to be sacked, the team dismantled and the tactics radically overhauled.</p>
<p>Now, substitute this vision for the recent performance of Plaid Cymru in the 2015 general election. Merely holding on to its three MPs in the Welsh language heartlands looks paltry in comparison to the bounty of 56 seats, enjoyed by the SNP. And Plaid’s 12.1% of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/wales">Welsh vote</a> was dwarfed by the SNP’s 50% of the Scottish vote share. Consequently, while the SNP are by some distance the largest party in Scotland, Plaid remain in fourth place in Wales behind Labour, the Conservatives and UKIP, apparently unable to exploit numerous opportunities presented to it, namely:</p>
<ol>
<li><p>The positive momentum generated by the SNP’s popularity in the wake of the Independence referendum.</p></li>
<li><p>The <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/general-election-2015-welsh-liberal-9212468">capitulation</a> of the Liberal Democrats.</p></li>
<li><p>The lethargy of Labour’s campaign and the Miliband “Marmite” factor.</p></li>
<li><p>The unprecedented exposure enjoyed by <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/leanne-wood-plaid-cymru-leader-whose-politics-were-forged-in-the-valleys-mining-communities-10188354.html">Leanne Wood</a> in the <a href="http://www.cityam.com/213935/bbc-leaders-election-debate">leaders’ debates</a>.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>Unlike some of her counterparts, Leanne Wood has not found herself on the leaders’ scrapheap. In fact, examinations of Plaid’s performance have praised her conduct. One Plaid AM has gone as far as to suggest that she now has “huge” potential to be seen as an <a href="https://twitter.com/SimonThomasAC/status/598107535921565697?lang=en-gb">alternative First Minister of Wales</a>. The successful <a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/02/04/271525839/borgen-is-denmarks-west-wing-but-even-better">Borgen</a>-isation of Wood’s image, the conviction of her <a href="https://twitter.com/Plaid_Cymru/status/596422374024736769">Voice of Wales</a> campaign and the alliance with the SNP’s Nicola Sturgeon suggest a revitalised Plaid Cymru brand. Various polls suggested Wood was the <a href="http://www.itv.com/news/wales/story/2015-03-30/latest-welsh-barometer-poll/">most-liked Welsh politician</a> and also the one that “<a href="http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/plaid-cymru-poll-finds-welsh-9166087">best stands up for the people of Wales</a>”.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/82012/original/image-20150518-25444-up0qq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Best buddies.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/leanne.wood.714/photos/pb.463813337026688.-2207520000.1431943449./822003101207708/?type=3&src=https%3A%2F%2Ffbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net%2Fhphotos-ak-xpt1%2Fv%2Ft1.0-9%2F11133659_822003101207708_4414150067732785345_n.jpg%3Foh%3D2a678d302032e082b9487ec941717fef%26oe%3D55FCAC11%26__gda__%3D1438990357_90de03c1ef7aa7147d027086a2fe597c&size=960%2C720&fbid=822003101207708">Leanne Wood/Facebook</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And yet, it is clear that Wood’s popularity did not translate into a deluge of votes. In fact, her prominence – combined with the buoyancy of “<a href="http://theconversation.com/cybernats-chase-down-no-camp-online-as-scotlands-indyref-approaches-31586">cybernats</a>” on social media – may well have provided an over-inflated estimation of Plaid’s chances. The reality is that holding on to its three existing seats, and coming within 229 votes of capturing one of its target seats in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/W07000041">Ynys Môn</a>, was far from disastrous.</p>
<h2>Is it a fair fight?</h2>
<p>Traditionally, neither the SNP nor Plaid have performed spectacularly well in Westminster elections, but as professor Laura McAllister has suggested, the parties are not “<a href="http://theconversation.com/can-welsh-nationalist-party-plaid-cymru-turn-its-fortunes-around-36743">two sides of the same coin</a>”. Although both now share similar aspirations towards independence and progressive left-of-centre policies, the respective identities of Scotland and Wales have, historically, been very different. The fact that Plaid hasn’t been swept upwards by the SNP whirlwind isn’t really so surprising after all.</p>
<p>To begin with, Scotland’s union with England was achieved on a more equal footing than the 16th century Acts of Union that “incorporated” Wales. And Scotland retained many significant aspects of statehood, such as Scots Law and a separate education system. This enabled it to pull far ahead of Wales in terms of administrative devolution: Wales got its first Secretary of State in 1964; the Scottish equivalent had been established in the 19th century.</p>
<p>This provided the Scots with a broader sense of civic identity, which, combined with the 1970s narrative of “<a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/how-black-gold-was-hijacked-north-sea-oil-and-the-betrayal-of-scotland-518697.html">Scotland’s oil</a>”, saw the Welsh playing a game of constitutional catch-up. Unsurprisingly, in both the 1979 and 1997 referenda, devolution proved far more appealing to Scottish voters than it did to those in Wales.</p>
<h2>A language game</h2>
<p>From its incipient years in the 1930s, the SNP was driven more by constitutional reform than a desire to reinforce Scottish cultural distinctiveness. By contrast, the purpose of Plaid Cymru stems from a fear of language decline that often alienated it from the majority non-Welsh speaking population, and led to unsubstantiated allegations that it was “<a href="http://www.clickonwales.org/2014/10/fascists-fascists-plaid-and-the-charges-of-extremism/">fascist</a>”.</p>
<p>In her memoirs, the SNP’s <a href="http://digital.nls.uk/scotlandspages/timeline/1967.html">Winnie Ewing</a> recalls telling Plaid Cymru’s leader <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/lifestyle/nostalgia/welsh-history-month-gwynfor-evans-7932525">Gwynfor Evans</a> that she was envious of the “linguistic heritage” of Wales. She was rather surprised by his response that, unlike Wales, support for the SNP could come from anywhere as “an inbuilt patriotic response which was not dependent on language.”</p>
<p>What’s more, British and <a href="http://www.clickonwales.org/2015/05/for-wales-see-england/">English-centric</a> values have retained a firmer grip on Wales. The recent election witnessed drastic contrasts in the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results/scotland">UKIP</a> poll, with the party gaining 13.6% of the vote in Wales, but only scraping 1.6% in Scotland. And while both Labour and the Conservatives have seemingly failed to adjust to devolution north of the border – allowing the SNP to mop up the populist protest vote – both parties have successfully promoted and cultivated their “Welsh” credentials.</p>
<p>The question now is, where next for Plaid? While the success of UKIP suggests – at least in part – Plaid’s failure to attract Labour’s disillusioned working-class vote, there are also fears among some of its supporters that it has abandoned the <a href="https://twitter.com/SeimonBrooks/status/596566446605467648">centre-ground</a> to the resurgent Conservatives. As the Welsh Assembly has acquired further powers, support for Welsh independence has also dwindled: 6% according to the latest <a href="http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2013/07/BBCICM-St-Davids-Day-2015.pdf">St David’s Day Poll</a>, but as low as <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/sep/24/3-per-cent-back-welsh-independence">3% </a>in the aftermath of the Scottish independence referendum. </p>
<p>With Leanne Wood – a socialist from the Rhondda – at its helm, the 2016 assembly elections will be the ultimate barometer of Plaid’s ability to transcend its historical image as a factional language pressure group. If Plaid fails to make a strong showing, it will be testament to its failure to emulate the SNP’s broad-church appeal. But, it will also highlight that Welsh dragons and Scottish lions are very far from being the same species.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41725/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plaid did not fare as well as its Scottish cousin in the general election - and history can tell us why.Mari Wiliam, Lecturer in Modern and Welsh History, Bangor UniversityAndrew Edwards, Dean of Arts and Humanities and Senior Lecturer in Modern History, Bangor UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/414142015-05-07T22:40:25Z2015-05-07T22:40:25ZElection 2015: Conservatives gain in England, SNP rampant across Scotland – experts react<p>Results appear to be backing an <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099">exit poll</a> for the 2015 UK election that predicted a better than expected performance for the Conservative Party. It suggested the Tories will win 316 seats – not far short to the 326 seats needed for a majority. Meanwhile, Labour has gone backwards, falling to a predicted 239 (down from 256); the SNP has made record gains in Scotland, winning 56 seats; and the Liberal Democrats are in freefall.</p>
<p>Our expert panel is on hand to explain what it all means.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Victoria Honeyman, Lecturer in British Politics at the University of Leeds</strong></p>
<p>It’s been an extraordinary night, largely because the exit polls had thrown absolutely everybody. Comres, IPSOS, YouGov and co had all said it would be very close. As soon as the exit polls came out it threw everything into flux. But there was no reason to doubt them – the 2010 exit polls were very accurate and the same people were involved this time around.</p>
<p>The Lib Dems saw it coming, but Labour certainly didn’t. In space of eight hours Labour supporters have gone from thinking their man would be in Downing St to wondering who their next leader is. It would be very surprising if Ed Miliband doesn’t now resign and yet this isn’t really his fault. Miliband was faced with a problem all party leaders have in common with football managers: they’re expected to gain success quickly. Leaders that can’t win elections know their time is up. </p>
<p>Miliband had two issues. Whether it was the famous bacon sandwich or because he looks like Wallace from Wallace & Grommit, the electorate never warmed to him as a leader.</p>
<p>He also tried to move away from New Labour rhetoric. Tony Blair said if you created wealth you could level a country up. Blair’s aide Peter Mandelson famously said he was “intensely relaxed about people getting filthy rich as long as they pay their taxes”. </p>
<p>Miliband said he did care how rich you get. He wanted to return Labour to different ideology, creating a position where you rebalance society, and improve things for core members of society. But the public didn’t think he was selling a message they could get on board with. </p>
<p>Nick Clegg has hinted he may be stand down, but most predicted this anyway. An awful lot of his party’s old guard is also gone – people who would have possibly challenged him such as Ed Davey, Jo Swinson or Danny Alexander. This really does leave the party in a tricky position as there is such a small group of potential leaders left. </p>
<p>The Lib Dems are no longer the third party – that’s the SNP, by quite a margin. A new leader will help but the party really needs a totally different strategy. Moving into government for the first time is very difficult process for any party as they go from being able to promise anything to a position of being practical. Seen historically, parties tend to find it tough – just look at Labour in the 1920s. The Lib Dems must regroup and that means rebuilding from the grassroots. This is what built their support in the 1990s as the party went from occasional victories in local politics, to running councils, to winning more MPs, and eventually the big breakthrough in Westminster.</p>
<p>The SNP had a number of things going for them. First Alex Salmond was no longer their leader. This had a massive impact. Salmond was a “Marmite figure” – you either loved him or you hated him. Nicola Sturgeon is very astute, and much more popular. </p>
<p>The party was also selling an easy anti-austerity message, very popular with voters tired of spending cuts. No one wants to be in the position of selling austerity. The SNP also hooked onto the idea that Scottish Labour was too integrated with its Westminster counterparts. </p>
<p>There is a natural tendency to believe SNP voters all support independence. But many SNP supporters simply want MPs who will go to Westminster and fight to get the best deal for Scotland, which they believe Scottish Labour MPs couldn’t do. That is their job after all; to do the best for Scotland. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Rainbow Murray, Reader in Politics at Queen Mary University of London</strong></p>
<p>Labour is normally the best party for women so the Tories have gained at women’s expense. Austerity has hit women hardest because women are the primary beneficiaries of welfare services and benefits that got cut during austerity. Many of the public sector workers who got laid off were women. The Tory manifesto promised more cuts including more cuts to benefits and more emphasis on the Big Society, which asks volunteers, who are usually women, to take over services that used to be provided by the state.</p>
<p>Nicola Sturgeon is one woman who has been very successful with SNP making huge gains in Scotland. There’s a dual effect – she has been an extremely successful leader and there is also a legacy from the independence referendum. The Scottish people decided not to secede from the Union but have asserted their national identity by voting for the SNP in the majority of cases. So the next parliament is going to be very interesting – we’ll have a referendum on Europe and we may well have another referendum on Scotland.</p>
<p>The story that’s rocking academia is that the opinion polls were so far off in their prediction. Congratulations must go to the exit poll team. When they announced their poll at 10pm, many people said they were wrong but at 6am it looks like they were accurate. How did every other pollster get it so wrong? One phenomenon put forward as an explanation is “shy Tories” who won’t admit to voting Conservative and yet do. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Eric Shaw, Senior Lecturer in Politics at University of Stirling</strong></p>
<p>Labour has been contracting in Scotland for a while. There has been a certain reluctance to address trends which were eating away at the party’s strength, and have accelerated largely because of the referendum. Despite the warning, the party was caught unaware. No-one anticipated the Tsunami.</p>
<p>On television, commentators like Peter Kellner and Andrew Marr were quick to advise that Labour return to the “successful” Blairite New Labour formula with a stronger pro-business orientation, a distancing from the unions and working-class voters and an alignment with the (largely mythical) Middle England.</p>
<p>The calculation of New Labour strategists was that working-class voters had nowhere else to go so they could be largely ignored. But many abstained, and in Scotland they had another option – voting for the SNP, which many have taken in hordes. </p>
<p>There are no quick answers for the party in Scotland because the problems it faces are fundamental. Modifying policy won’t do, because most people take no interest in policy detail. What matters are question of purpose, identity and belonging; and of representation. It means Scottish Labour transforming itself into a movement, a cause and a vocation as well as an election-winning machine.</p>
<p>If the party was to make three changes in Scotland, I would suggest the following. First a radical alteration of the party’s relationship with the UK party, for example becoming an independent party but one affiliated to the British party. This could be along the lines of the relationship between the Bavarian CSU (which operates only in Bavaria) and the larger CDU which operates in the rest of Germany. The CSU is independent but in permanent alliance with the Christian Democrats. </p>
<p>Second, the party should launch a very wide-ranging and independent enquiry into what went wrong, talking to activists, officials and candidates, the unions, academic researchers and all interested bodies. Its tasks would include analysing social trends, shifts in cultural and socioeconomic patterns and motivations guiding voter decisions.</p>
<p>Most important of all, the party has to give deep thought to some absolutely basic issues. What do we exist for? What is the role of the party? What are the values and visions we wish to embed in social organisation? What do we really stand for – is there a Labour “soul”?</p>
<p>And it must above all avoid the bland, anodyne and banal platitudes in which New Labour in particular specialised, such as “opportunities for all”, “widening social justice”, “a more aspirational society” and “One Nation Labour”: all motherhood and apple pie. All in all, it will be a job that should take a while.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Stuart Wilks-Heeg, Head of Politics at University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>Conservative Esther McVey has lost the seat of Wirral West to Labour candidate Margaret Greenwood. There are several constituencies in the north west where Labour has increased its majority or vote share, but with the exception of Wirral West, this follows a pattern seen elsewhere of Labour gaining seats from the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>I had thought four Lib Dems would hold on in the north west but it could be fewer than that. We’ve seen some really big vote shares for UKIP, which has been getting double-digit vote shares almost everywhere in the north west and the party will be very well placed to challenge Labour in the next general election.</p>
<p>UKIP is not going to make the kind of gains that its candidates hoped for on the east coast. I think UKIP has realised that in places like the north west where the Conservatives were long ago displaced as a serious contender, and with the squeeze on the Lib Dems over the past five yers, the opportunity is there to take on Labour. That’s a vacuum they are capable of filling in 2020.</p>
<p>The Lib Dems are being punished for some of the decisions they made. The decision on tution fees was catastrophic and led to a decline in their poll rating from which they’ve never recovered. This is a shocking result. People like Vince Cable losing their seats throws the party into crisis to an extent that no-one thought possible.</p>
<p>If there are only ten Lib Dem MPs left, and that’s what could be needed for the Conservatives to form a coalition government, then Nick Clegg and his colleagues face a massive decison. The prospect of being locked into another coalition for five years would destroy the party. Whatever they do they need to rebuild. It took them decades to build up to their 57 seats in 2010 and now they’ve been pushed back to where they were in the 70s and perhaps worse. They’ve got a huge task to rebuild from here – it’s going to be really tough.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Craig McAngus, Research Fellow at the University of Stirling</strong></p>
<p>The incredible thing about these results is that it now looks as though the polls under-predicted what would happen in Scotland. We may well be looking at a clean sweep of seats and a share well in excess of 50%. In terms of what this means for a second referendum, it goes back to the two traditional wings of the SNP: do you take the fundamentalist approach and push for a new poll quickly or do you go with the gradualists and gradually build up to it? </p>
<p>If there had been a Labour government, it would have been much more suited to the gradualist argument. But because the SNP will be in opposition, the emphasis will switch much more to the Scottish parliamentary party, and its ability to affect progress towards independence. With the SNP as part of the opposition, it’ll have to act in reaction to what the UK government does as opposed to being in a position to affect what it does.</p>
<p>The legitimacy question in Scotland is going to be even worse than the darkest days of Thatcher. It will mean that any action by the UK government that materially affects big issues like the constitution, or welfare, or economic policy could become the sort of change that Nicola Sturgeon has repeatedly said might be grounds for a second referendum. This will be much more the case than if the SNP was backing a minority Labour government.</p>
<p>Then of course there is the EU referendum, which now looks more likely than the polls suggested. If the UK votes to leave but Scotland votes to stay, that is certainly seen as the sort of material change that Sturgeon had in mind.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Peter Lynch, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Stirling</strong></p>
<p>In Scotland, it looks like the exit poll is proving completely accurate. When you see results like Douglas Alexander’s in Paisley, losing by 5,000 seats, it’s not even close.</p>
<p>It was thought that Labour would scrape home in some of these seats with a couple of hundred votes, but the party is getting buried. It’s not even like a normal landslide, where the other parties still get to keep seats. The only scuttlebutt looks to be the Labour seat of Edinburgh South. If it wins there, it will be through tactical voting. </p>
<p>I was quite sceptical about this. Even this week I thought the SNP would win 30 or maybe 40 seats. I have always been a first-past-the-post sceptic. It was very tough for the SNP in the Scottish election in 2007, and even in 2011. It was having to overturn majorities in places where the people had voted Labour or Lib Dem for many years. And it was always particularly rubbish in Westminster elections. Until recently, the SNP even struggled to get its activists to take those elections seriously.</p>
<p>The big question is the implications of another Tory-dominated government. Of course the Tory offer to Scotland, with input from the other parties, is contained in the proposals from the <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-new-powers-for-scotland-really-be-delivered-within-promised-timescale-33960">Smith Commission</a>.</p>
<p>No doubt there will now be discussions between the SNP and the Tories about what more might be included. The tenor is likely to be that the SNP will be told that it can have more powers, such as in welfare, but it will have to finance them from within Scotland. There was a potential deal between the coalition and the Scottish government prior to the Scotland Act on the basis that there would not be a referendum. Strangely we are now more or less back to that position. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Louise Thompson, Lecturer in British Politics at University of Surrey</strong></p>
<p>As the results are now beginning to flood in we are seeing the sheer scale of change in this election. We all knew we would see massive SNP gains in Scotland and that the UKIP vote would be strong, but seeing the size of the swing to Sturgeon’s SNP in the latest results is astonishing.</p>
<p>For such a long time British politics has felt predictable to voters in safe seats and voting at all has felt pointless, but now we are seeing big political figures losing their seats as Scotland turns from red to yellow. Whatever the outcome, the people of Scotland certainly won’t be complaining that their votes don’t count. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Jennifer Thomson, PhD Candidate, School of Politics and International Relations, Queen Mary University of London</strong></p>
<p>An interesting night for the DUP: they have retained seven of their seats, gained one more, in East Belfast, while losing South Antrim to the UUP. Naomi Long, Alliance, won East Belfast in 2010. This was a bitter defeat for the DUP, and winning it back was key for them this time around. Gavin Robinson now represents the seat for the DUP.</p>
<p>The UUP are back at Westminster with one representative after their candidate Danny Knahan beat the DUP incumbent Willie McCrea in a shock result. Nonetheless, with 8 seats the DUP will now probably be the fifth largest party in Westminster. </p>
<p>The party were outspoken in the run-up to the election. They said they would be open to a deal with either of the two main parties on the basis of two key conditions: the removal of the bedroom tax and a referendum on EU membership. A deal with the Conservatives has always appeared more likely, and they may potentially be in line to form a coalition or prop up a minority government.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science at Cardiff University</strong></p>
<p>In Wales, the Conservatives look set to have their most seats since the height of Thatcherism in 1983, while it’s a disaster for the Lib Dems. The Tories have won seats in the more Anglicised parts of Wales, such as Brecon & Radnorshire along the border and Vale of Clywd, near to north-west England. The party has the same appeal in these areas as it does in rural England.</p>
<p>Plaid Cymru’s vote share has gone up a bit, and it has done ok in terms of holding onto existing seats. However it looks like it’s missed out on target seats and will score fewer Welsh votes than UKIP. Given the higher-profile the party enjoyed thanks to Leanne Wood’s participation in the debates this has to count as a failure.</p>
<p>Plaid ran a decent campaign but has been a weaker party than the SNP for at least a decade – and Wales didn’t have a referendum to rally people behind the idea of independence.</p>
<p>The party tried to get “fair funding for Wales” – parity with Scotland – onto the agenda but it doesn’t seem to have worked. The big issues were largely the same as elsewhere: the economy, jobs, health and immigration.</p>
<p>Despite its relative failures, Labour should remain Wales’s biggest party in terms of both votes and seats, for the 20th election in a row. But this won’t be reflected in Westminster, where the Conservatives look set to run the government. In the 1980s this split between Wales and Westminster stirred up nationalism which led to devolution a decade later. We won’t see anything as dramatic this time around, but Labour badly needs to put things back together before Welsh assembly elections next year.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Sophie Whiting, Lecturer in the Department of Politics at University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>Few of Northern Ireland’s 18 seats were predicted to change hands during this general election campaign. East Belfast however has been one of the key battlegrounds during the 2015 campaign.</p>
<p>Rewind to 2010 and the shock of the general election in Northern Ireland was Peter Robinson, leader of the DUP and First Minister, loosing his seat in East Belfast, a seat he had held since 1979. With a majority of more than 1,500 votes, Naomi Long gave the Alliance Party their first seat in Westminster.</p>
<p>In 2015 the DUP threw everything they could at recapturing East Belfast, including a fresh faced parliamentary candidate, Gavin Robinson (no relation to Peter) and agreeing to an electoral pact with the Ulster Unionist Party. The UUP agreed to step aside in East and North Belfast to increase the chances of a DUP win whilst the DUP stood aside in two other constituencies – and it paid off.</p>
<p>A win in East Belfast for the DUP by more than 2,500 votes has helped maintain DUP hopes for returning a sizeable block of MPs to Westminster. After losing South Antrim to the UUP, East Belfast was even more important for the DUP if they wanted play a decisive role at Westminster. The party have been clear that they would be happy to support either a Labour or Conservative minority government under certain conditions. For the DUP, East Belfast is a step towards more power and influence in Westminster politics.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics at University of Liverpool</strong></p>
<p>If the Conservatives come up short of a majority, and get 316 seats as the exit poll suggests, then they could be carried over the line and into government by a confidence and supply deal with the DUP’s eight predicted MPs, and the UUP’s new MP. These nine extra seats could take the Conservatives past the 323 seats they realistically need. DUP members prefer the Conservatives to Labour at a ratio of seven to one, and rank 8/10 on a scale toward the right of the political spectrum, which makes them natural bedfellows for the Conservatives. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80934/original/image-20150508-1212-vh3pvg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Natural bedfellows.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jonathan Tonge</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This would be a good thing for the Conservatives – the DUP are a disciplined party: if they say they’re going to work with the Conservatives, then they will. Realistically, the Liberal Democrats are not going to be keen to do another deal, given the damage the coalition has done to them for this election. In contrast, a deal with the Conservatives would be unlikely to damage the DUP in Northern Ireland. </p>
<p>When it comes to coalition negotiations, the first demand on the table will be more money for Northern Ireland. A figure of £1 billion has been floated, but this is not the official position of the party. The DUP support more money on defence, and are keen to see the UK reach the 2% NATO target on defence spending. They also support a referendum on EU membership and tougher immigration controls. </p>
<p>The only sticking point might be the bedroom tax – the DUP do not support the tax and would like to see it scrapped across the UK. The DUP are right wing in a lot of ways, particularly on constitutional issues, but they have a strong working class support base. So there might be arguments about the bedroom tax, but it’s unlikely to be a dealbreaker. </p>
<p>Another consideration is that the DUP would be looking for guarantees to secure Northern Ireland’s devolved power on matters such as same sex marriage and abortion – the latter is almost illegal in Northern Ireland. There would be pressure from within the UK – and to some extent from within Northern Ireland – for more liberal laws, but the DUP would be looking for assurances that these matters would remain devolved. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Michael Saward, Professor in Politics at the University of Warwick</strong></p>
<p>The big story of the night is Scotland. I don’t know if you can have a revolution by electoral means these days but if you can, this is as close as it gets. </p>
<p>With the SNP predicted to win almost all of Scotland’s 59 seats and with Alex Salmond in Westminster, a second independence referendum certainly looks a few years closer than it did yesterday. Given Nicola Sturgeon’s insistence that this was not a vote about independence, Salmond will have to play it carefully politically but a complete lack of Scottish representation in the UK government would only add more pressure for a referendum.</p>
<p>The second biggest story is the EU referendum. The certainty of a vote on UK membership has firmed up and there will be pressure to hold the vote in the earlier half of the next parliament.</p>
<p>If the Conservatives come away with anything above 210 sets, the most likely outcome is a Conservative minority government. The right of the party will not want to team up with the Liberal Democrats again and would most likely prefer an informal arrangement with the DUP. A Conservative minority government could lose a vote or two in the House of Commons but could continue with the confidence of the House.</p>
<p>The exit poll is probably right, which means Paddy Ashdown will have to eat some sort of hat. I think he knows that. And opinion pollsters will have to re-examine their navels. They had thought they had resolved their biggest issues a few years ago but they are going to have to have a rethink. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Neil Matthews, Research Fellow, School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy at Queen’s University Belfast</strong></p>
<p>Declarations are trickling in across Northern Ireland’s 18 constituencies – and set against the “electoral tsunami” occurring in Scotland, events across the Irish Sea might appear rather dull. That said there has been one shock in the form of the UUP’s Danny Kinihan ousting the DUP in South Antrim. This sees a return for the UUP to the green benches of Westminster.</p>
<p>Elsewhere, as widely anticipated, the DUP has held its seats in Lagan Valley, North Antrim, Strangford and Upper Bann – indications are that it will also record a gain in East Belfast and see Westminster leader, Nigel Dodds, returned in North Belfast.</p>
<p>The SDLP has succeeded in Foyle and is polling well in its two other strongholds of South Belfast and South Down. It is likely then that the party will retain its compliment of three seats.</p>
<p>For Sinn Fein there is only one result to report – comfortably returning an MP in West Tyrone.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Catherine Happer, Research Associate at the Glasgow University Media Group</strong></p>
<p>So far the TV coverage has been coloured by the exit polls, which have genuinely astounded people. Because the politicians all prepare what they are going to say, it’s made them particularly cautious, stilted and unwilling to talk about hypotheticals. They are stuck in a bubble of disbelief. It could have been a very exciting night, but we have become bound by a sense of interviewees not being able to take this seriously yet. </p>
<p>My moment of the night so far would be Paddy Ashdown saying he would eat his hat if the Lib Dem forecast of 10 seats came true. He simply refused to believe the polls. Then he said a bit later that he would eat his hat if it was made of marzipan. By the end of the night, he’ll probably be saying, “bring the hat over here”. </p>
<p>More broadly, the influence of the press is one of the big stories of the night. There was much discussion prior to the exit polls that had Miliband managed to make it into office, it would have been a historic win because he would have done so without much press support. Now we are back to the old picture of “It Was The Sun Wot Won It”. </p>
<p>Obviously we saw very strong press backing for the Conservatives and scaremongering about Ed Miliband. Some of it has been vile, not over his policies but about how he eats a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/may/06/sun-ed-miliband-labour-mail-telegraph-election">bacon sandwich</a> or <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11575631/Watch-Ed-Miliband-trips-off-the-stage-following-Question-Time-leaders-special.html">tripping</a> over the stage on BBC Question Time. The other big angle has been the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/09/tory-election-poster-ed-miliband-pocket-snp-alex-salmond">demonisation of the SNP</a>, of course. </p>
<p>The jury is still out on the impact of the TV debates. They probably gave Miliband a chance to represent himself in a more three-dimensional light. But on television, the press were able to very much narrow the parameters of the debate, forcing the focus on the deficit, Labour’s record in office and so forth. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Charles Lees, Professor of Politics at the University of Bath</strong></p>
<p>If the exit poll is accurate and the Conservatives are able to govern alone, the Union of Great Britain and Northern Ireland could well be over within a decade.</p>
<p>A minority Tory government will not only have to manage a hostile House of Commons; it will also be at the mercy of its Eurosceptic backbenchers. David Cameron has pledged to hold a referendum on Europe but, under pressure from these backbenchers, the negotiations will be more difficult than they might have been. A sceptical and perhaps hostile EU will not be in a position to grant Cameron all he needs to please them.</p>
<p>If the UK as a whole (that means England) looks likely to leave the EU then the SNP will go to the country in the Scottish polls seeking a mandate to run a second referendum. In the current climate, it might well win. </p>
<p>Any Scottish exit from the UK, especially combined with a UK exit from the EU, would destabilise Northern Ireland in unforeseeable ways. Certainly, nationalists and republicans would want Northern Ireland to throw in its lot with the republic and remain in the EU. The Unionists would be torn between loyalty to the union, an instinctive affinity with the Scots, and also fears of commercial meltdown for a province with a fragile economy, that is reliant on trade with the south but now stranded outside the EU. </p>
<p>No-one can be sure how this would all end but you would have to be a supreme optimist to think it would end well. At the very least, a Constitutional Convention will be needed with a radical brief to think the unthinkable. The UK tradition of evolutionary change will no longer suffice.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>David Cutts, Reader in Political Science at the University of Bath</strong></p>
<p>It’s very unlikely that the exit poll is too far off. At most they may have over-egged it by about 20 seats for the Conservatives. </p>
<p>The exit polls are indicating that 15 or 20 Conservative seats have gone to Labour, which is just over a 1% swing. It suggests that Labour is doing better against the Conservatives in Labour strongholds, but in the marginals it is flatlining completely.</p>
<p>I would expect UKIP to do very well in Labour-held areas. Its strategy is to get as many second places as possible. The story is about Labour voters that feel Labour doesn’t represent them and see UKIP as a viable alternative. </p>
<p>It looks like UKIP will hold Clacton and win Thurrock because of support from Labour voters. The question will be what happens to them in places like Boston & Skegness, Great Yarmouth and of course Thanet South, where it looks like Nigel Farage might not win. In relation to the exit polls, the question for UKIP is how spread across the country its vote is. In reality we are expecting UKIP to take support from across the population. </p>
<p>With the Lib Dems, the same sort of logic could mean that they end up with rather more seats than the 10 that was forecast in the exit poll. It is possible that if it got less than a 6% vote in about 580 to 600 seats, it could mean it got over 30% in a good number of others. If they drop to 10 seats that would suggest capitulation in the Conservative-Lib Dem battlegrounds.</p>
<p>My estimate is that the SNP will win about 52 seats in Scotland. It would be wrong for the left in England to blame the SNP for Labour’s failure. If Labour was seeing swings of 4% or 5% in Labour-Conservative marginals, it would be looking at winning 40 or 50 seats in England and not just 15 or 20. Labour’s failure to take seats away from the Conservatives is really what will have stopped it from winning at the UK level. </p>
<hr>
<p><strong>John Van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic Performance and Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics</strong></p>
<p>If the polls are right the Conservatives have done much better than expected – they’d be in the driving seat. There seems no chance Labour could form a government.</p>
<p>A Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition seems the most likely option, and this will almost certainly mean a referendum on EU membership. This will be the main issue over the next few years – a Brexit could cause serious damage to the UK economy. Markets like stability, and the uncertainty could make the UK a less desirable destination for foreign direct investment.</p>
<p>Conservative economic plans may be tempered to some degree by the Lib Dems but the two aren’t all that far apart. Adjustments will be made through tough cuts to public spending rather than tax rises.</p>
<p>The past five years have been a pretty awful time for the UK economy so it’s surprising the economic narrative has been so positive. GDP per head is still <a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea034_executive_summary.pdf">17% below</a> the long term expected level, and living standards are still down. </p>
<p>Over the past year however things have gone relatively well and people remember recent events more clearly – a triumph for Conservative and coalition strategy. Still, the 2.4% growth rate isn’t much more than the average over the 50 years before the financial crisis – you’d expect strong growth post-crisis but we haven’t seen it. From an economist’s perspective it has been a bad performance.</p>
<p>Labour should have done more to defend its own record though – the high deficit being due to the global financial crisis rather than mismanagement of public finances, for instance. Its strategy of appealing to the base with more regulation, rent control, price control and not reaching out to business was different from Blair’s “middle ground”. A stronger defence of its record probably wouldn’t have won them the election, but it should have reached out more to the middle.</p>
<hr>
<p><strong>Frances Amery, Lecturer in Politics at University of Bath</strong></p>
<p>Everyone is quite shocked at the moment. Somebody somewhere has screwed up, whether it is the pollsters or the exit polls.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/05/06/final-call-conservatives-and-labour-tied/">YouGov poll</a> aligns more with our expectations, so it’s interesting to see the BBC’s coverage hasn’t reported on it at all. Too early to give reasoned commentary. Wait and see.</p>
<p>If the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633099">broadcasters’ exit poll</a> is indeed right then a Conservative minority government is the most likely outcome. Michael Gove and others claiming a “clear victory” would be right as there simply wouldn’t be enough anti-Tory votes to form a rainbow coalition. </p>
<p>It will be interesting to see what happens with a big SNP block though. Another independence referendum is certainly likely as the Conservatives have been so antagonistic towards Scottish voters. This raises constitutional questions about the future of the UK. We may well see some sort of reform on English votes for English laws (EVEL) – though in many cases it’s very hard to determine what is specifically an English issue.</p>
<p>I specialise in women’s issues. If the exit polls are correct, five more years of David Cameron in number 10 would not be a great thing at all for women. Austerity has been worse for women than men, and we’ll see further big welfare cuts. Very damaging for women in the UK.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41414/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Frances Amery receives funding from the ESRC. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Catherine Happer receives funding from the Avatar Alliance Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charles Lees is affiliated with the Labour Party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Cutts receives funding from the ESRC. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Eric Shaw receives funding from the ESRC and the Carnegie Foundation, and is also a member of the Labour party.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Thomson receives funding from the ESRC. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Van Reenen receives funding from the ESRC. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Tonge has received funding from the ESRC for the 2010 and 2015 Northern Ireland Election Studies. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Matthews is a post-doctoral research fellow on the ESRC-funded Northern Ireland Assembly Election Study 2016 project. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Wilks-Heeg receives funding from the electoral commission and is chair of Democratic Audit.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Craig McAngus, Louise Thompson, Michael Saward, Peter Lynch, Rainbow Murray, Roger Awan-Scully, Sophie Whiting, and Victoria Honeyman do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Experts provide a rolling response, live as the results come in for the 2015 general election.Fran Amery, Lecturer in Politics, University of BathCatherine Happer, Research Associate, Glasgow University Media Group, University of GlasgowCharles Lees, Professor of Politics, University of BathCraig McAngus, Research Fellow, University of StirlingDavid Cutts, Reader in Political Science, University of BathEric Shaw, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of StirlingJennifer Thomson, PhD Candidate, Queen Mary University of LondonJohn Van Reenen, Director, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political ScienceJonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics , University of LiverpoolLouise Thompson, Lecturer in British Politics, University of SurreyMichael Saward, Professor in Politics, University of WarwickNeil Matthews, Research Fellow, School of Politics, International Studies and Philosophy, Queen's University BelfastPeter Lynch, Senior Lecturer, Politics, University of StirlingRainbow Murray, Reader in Politics, Queen Mary University of LondonRoger Awan-Scully, Professor of Political Science, Cardiff UniversitySophie Whiting, Lecturer in Politics, University of LiverpoolStuart Wilks-Heeg, Head of Politics, University of LiverpoolVictoria Honeyman, Lecturer in British Politics, University of LeedsLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/411052015-05-01T14:22:05Z2015-05-01T14:22:05ZPromising more free nursery care is one thing, delivering it is quite another<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80056/original/image-20150501-12616-qpd0mn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Good deeds don't always work out that way</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/s/sad+face/search.html?page=2&thumb_size=mosaic&inline=58314529">Nailia Schwartz</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>As the parties fall over themselves in a last-minute attempt to woo women voters, childcare is finally being recognised as the salient political issue it should always have been. It is, after all, 2015. Not only does childcare promote gender equality and economic growth by facilitating women’s employment, it educates children and provides them with essential opportunities to socialise with their peers. </p>
<p>These benefits hinge on the quality of the services provided, however. As the parties have moved into a superficial bidding war about who will provide the largest quantity of free hours, this issue seems to have been overlooked. They have paid little attention to how these free hours will actually be provided given the current challenges facing the sector.</p>
<h2>Party proposals</h2>
<p>Currently in England, children aged three and four (and some two-year-olds) are entitled to 15 hours of free childcare per week (there are similar initiatives in Scotland and Wales). In <a href="http://www.labour.org.uk/manifesto">its manifesto</a>, Labour proposed an extension to 25 hours per week for three and four-year-olds as well as more breakfast and afterschool clubs for school-aged children. </p>
<p>The Liberal Democrats <a href="http://www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto">intend to</a> widen eligibility for the current 15 free hours to all two-year-olds and, for working parents, to provide free childcare from nine months (the end of parental leave) to two years. They also support a further increase in the number of hours per week to 20. </p>
<p>Not to be outdone, the Conservatives <a href="https://www.conservatives.com/manifesto">have proposed</a> to increase provision of free childcare for three and four-year-olds to 30 hours per week by 2017, but only for parents in employment. The Greens <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/manifesto/Green_Party_2015_General_Election_Manifesto_Searchable.pdf">propose</a> a fully comprehensive system of early education and care from birth to school age. Even UKIP <a href="http://www.ukip.org/manifesto2015">plans to</a> increase school-age care. Both the <a href="http://votesnp.com/docs/manifesto.pdf">Scottish National Party</a> and <a href="https://www.partyof.wales/2015-manifesto/">Plaid Cymru</a> also support additional free early education and care services.</p>
<h2>Capacity for expansion?</h2>
<p>While support for public funding of childcare across all the major UK parties is to be applauded, the question remains whether any of these parties are fully prepared to fund childcare in a way that meets the needs of parents, children and providers. Recent experience with expansions to the free entitlement under the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition gives cause for concern in this regard. </p>
<p>While the number of children taking up free places in nurseries <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/324065/SFR20-2014_Text1.pdf">has increased</a> since 2010, expenditure <a href="http://www.casedata.org.uk/show-chart?id=under-5s/full/figure/1">has fallen</a>. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/324065/SFR20-2014_Text1.pdf">majority</a> of children under school-age receive their free childcare from private and voluntary providers. Yet recent reports <a href="https://www.pre-school.org.uk/whats-new/early-years-agenda/counting-the-cost-report">have documented</a> that these providers currently face a shortfall between the cost it takes to deliver each free childcare place and the funds they receive to do so. </p>
<p>To stay in business, they have to make up this shortfall through the fees they charge parents for additional hours. Doubling the number of free childcare hours without increasing the funding per place exacerbates the problem and could put providers into extreme financial difficulty.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80057/original/image-20150501-12652-gdn6wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80057/original/image-20150501-12652-gdn6wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/80057/original/image-20150501-12652-gdn6wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80057/original/image-20150501-12652-gdn6wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80057/original/image-20150501-12652-gdn6wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80057/original/image-20150501-12652-gdn6wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80057/original/image-20150501-12652-gdn6wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/80057/original/image-20150501-12652-gdn6wr.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">More free places without more funding spells trouble for private nurseries.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/cat.mhtml?lang=en&language=en&ref_site=photo&search_source=search_form&version=llv1&anyorall=all&safesearch=1&use_local_boost=1&search_tracking_id=8145DZvH_9fX4bYL4QvGCg&searchterm=nursery%20school&show_color_wheel=1&orient=&commercial_ok=&media_type=images&search_cat=&searchtermx=&photographer_name=&people_gender=&people_age=&people_ethnicity=&people_number=&color=&page=1&inline=137155820">Marko Poplasen</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Without sufficient funding, it will be difficult for providers to maintain let alone raise the quality of the service they provide. Quality in the sector is already an issue, as the recent expansion of eligibility to a group of disadvantaged two-year-olds highlighted. A report <a href="http://www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/1sound-foundations-jan2014-3.pdf">published by</a> the Sutton Trust advised delays to the roll-out for two-year-olds precisely due to a shortage of sufficiently high quality places. </p>
<p>Expanding the number of free hours of childcare could be a great benefit to both parents and children. But the politicians need to pay greater attention to the challenges of implementation. Successful expansion in practice will likely require additional funding to meet current costs of delivery and to attract and train qualified staff. Otherwise, in the push to expand capacity rapidly, service standards may fall.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/41105/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Caitlin McLean does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Politicians promising to expand free childcare is no bad thing, but it is difficult to deliver in practiceCaitlin McLean, Ailsa McKay Postdoctoral Fellow in Economics, Glasgow Caledonian UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/404422015-04-27T05:15:08Z2015-04-27T05:15:08ZExplainer: what is a confidence-and-supply government?<p>The Westminster political system is entering uncharted territory. It seems increasingly likely that neither the Conservatives or Labour will be in a position to form a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-numbers-that-explain-the-british-election-polling-deadlock-40130">majority government</a> after the election on May 7. They may not even be able to form a working coalition with any single minor party. </p>
<p>In such a scenario, a <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-do-minority-governments-survive-39752">minority government</a> could be formed and kept in office through what is known as a confidence-and-supply agreement with one or more of the minor parties. </p>
<p>As the title suggests, a confidence-and-supply agreement has two distinct strands. By convention, in order to remain in office, a government must retain the confidence of the House of Commons. When a minor party signs a confidence-and-supply deal, they are agreeing to vote with the government or abstain on any motion of <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/parliament-government/">confidence or no confidence</a> brought to the house. </p>
<p>The supply in the title refers to support on certain votes. In order to spend money governments have to pass money bills (most notably, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/uk-budget">budget</a>). A signatory to a confidence-and-supply deal agrees to support the government in the passage of these bills.</p>
<p>In exchange for confidence-and-supply support, a minor party would expect some influence over government policy, which is usually announced in a Queen’s speech at the opening of parliament. This may be a specific policy or simply evidence of influence on an existing policy. As with a full coalition, minor parties need to be wary in their negotiating strategy. Ask too little and be viewed by their supporters of selling themselves too cheaply. Demand too much and it may prevent a deal, destabilise the agreement and prove undeliverable. </p>
<p>The level of cross-party co-operation can vary in these deals but the minor party would remain officially part of the opposition and would sit on the opposition benches. </p>
<h2>Has it worked in the past?</h2>
<p>There has only ever been one formal confidence-and-supply agreement in the UK. Between 1977 and 1978 the Liberal party, under David Steel, entered into the “Lib-Lab pact” with Jim Callaghan’s Labour government.</p>
<p>In exchange for their support, the Liberals were granted a number of minor concessions. Most notably an “understanding” that Labour MPs would be given a free vote on the electoral system to be used in the forthcoming European parliamentary elections. Steel had hoped this would result in the House of Commons supporting a proportional system. When this was not delivered, partly because more than 70 Labour MPs abstained, the pact was effectively over. The only substantive policy achieved by the Liberals was the implementation of a profit-sharing scheme for business. Understandably this was largely overlooked by the public and the Liberals’ electoral support nosedived.</p>
<p>The pact did provide political stability, though. It kept the Labour Party in power, during which time there was a modest economic recovery. It was supported by the City of London and, according to contemporary opinion polls, enjoyed significant public support. </p>
<p>The Liberals eventually broke off the pact in August 1978 and were left licking their wounds. Labour reverted to a minority government and negotiated agreements on a policy-by-policy basis with various minor parties until it finally lost a vote of confidence in March 1979. </p>
<p>Elsewhere, the SNP governed with a minority in Scotland between 2007 and 2010 and Labour currently presides over such an arrangement in Wales. In both cases deals are made on a policy-by-policy basis. </p>
<h2>What might happen this time?</h2>
<p>Whether a deal like this could work in 2015 depends very much on arithmetic and political sentiment. Current seat projections suggest both Labour and the Conservatives could be around 30 to 40 seats short of an overall majority. In practice, the magic figure – taking out Sinn Fein MPs and the Speaker – looks set to be 323.</p>
<p>David Cameron, as the incumbent, would be given first chance to form a government but Labour is in a stronger position to secure the confidence of the house, whether it is the largest party or not. It could feasibly rely on the support (or abstention) of the SDLP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru, Independents and even the DUP. This could account for ten to 15 votes. On top of that, Labour may even be able to find support from the SNP and the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>On this basis, Ed Miliband could, at least to begin with, form a minority government. In this case, he would be safe in the knowledge that the Conservatives, presumably in the midst of a leadership election or with a new and potentially more right-wing leader, would be unable to muster a rainbow coalition. The Conservatives would also be limited in their actions by the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, making it more difficult to bring governments down and force a second general election.</p>
<h2>The big problem</h2>
<p>The trouble with this type of agreement, which generally involves several parties, is that it is inherently unstable. Trust between effective inter-party go-betweens would have to be quickly established. Meanwhile, the power of the Labour backbenchers to cause trouble should not be overlooked.</p>
<p>A more formal confidence-and-supply agreement may therefore be needed in 2015. Labour has explicitly ruled out a deal with the SNP but it may find it has no choice.</p>
<h2>Confidence and supply for Labour</h2>
<p>In this scenario, around 280-290 Labour MPs could combine with as many as 50 SNP MPs to ensure a working majority – and more importantly for day-to-day business, a substantial majority over the Conservatives.</p>
<p>Angus Robertson, leader of the SNP in Westminster, has specifically stated the party’s preference would be confidence and supply, with conditions set to include consultation on the Queen’s Speech and places on select committees. In practice the most significant discussions look set to be over the content of the Budget and the severity of spending cuts. SNP’s demands for full fiscal responsibility “as soon as possible” may also cause difficulties. </p>
<p>Potentially, Labour could promise action on this or a similar issue in order to bind the SNP to a deal, potentially for the majority of the lifetime of the parliament. As seen with the Lib-Lab pact, once policy objectives have been met, it can be difficult to retain the support of minor parties.</p>
<p>There are risks for the minor party in entering a confidence-and-supply agreement. This would not be a formal coalition so the SNP would have no automatic access to policy documents or the civil service, nor would it have any additional financial support. The parties might, as the Liberals did in 1977, produce a <a href="http://www.liberalhistory.org.uk/history/joint-statement-on-the-lib-lab-pact-steel-and-callaghan/">document</a> outlining the rules of engagement or establish a consultative committee to administer the agreement.</p>
<p>Personal relationships matter in such an agreement. the Lib-Lab pact of the 1970s was formed around the special “uncle-nephew” rapport that developed between Callaghan and Steel. Whether Miliband can work effectively with Nicola Sturgeon, Alex Salmond or Angus Robertson is more open to question.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40442/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Kirkup does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Both Labour and the Conservatives could do deals with smaller parties to survive in a minority government. Here’s how it works.Jonathan Kirkup, Lecturer in Politics, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/397132015-04-23T10:04:17Z2015-04-23T10:04:17ZManifesto Check: Plaid Cymru’s defence policy is ‘vague and uncosted’<h2>Defence</h2>
<p><strong>Keith Hartley, Emeritus Professor at the University of York</strong></p>
<p>To begin with, it is worth noting that Plaid Cymru is not calling for defence to be devolved to Wales. Even so, <a href="http://www.partyof.wales/2015-manifesto/">the party’s manifesto</a> contains a vague and uncosted defence policy. There is just one costed commitment; namely, opposition to a Trident replacement, which the party claims (<a href="https://theconversation.com/fact-check-will-renewing-trident-cost-100-billion-39002">more or less correctly</a>) would cost £100 billion. Other commitments refer to basing Welsh army units in Wales, support for veterans and cyberdefence.</p>
<p>The manifesto fails to refer to, or identify, any specific defence and security threats to the UK and Wales. Nor is there any reference to the party’s preferred level of UK defence spending – though its leader’s <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/sep/12/plaid-cymru-leader-wales-prosper">previous statements on the matter</a> indicate that they would prefer a much lower level. </p>
<p>In its manifesto, Plaid Cymru pledge to use any savings from the cancellation of a Trident replacement to provide public services and safeguard jobs. The <a href="http://www.basicint.org/sites/default/files/trident_commission_defence-industrial_issues_keith_hartley_0.pdf">costs of Trident</a> are incurred over a 50 year lifetime, which means an annual average saving from cancellation of some £2 billion per year. These savings would accrue to the UK, with the Welsh share amounting to 5% – or £100 million per year – based on population. </p>
<p>No details are given as to which public services will be provided and how many jobs in which sectors will be safeguarded. Nor is there any recognition of the cancellation costs of the Trident replacement and the <a href="http://www.basicint.org/sites/default/files/trident_commission_defence-industrial_issues_keith_hartley_0.pdf">loss of potential jobs</a> from its cancellation. </p>
<p>There is a commitment to base Welsh army units in Wales to improve relationships with the local community and help soldiers’ families. This commitment lacks any details of the likely numbers involved, the impact on military effectiveness and the costs of re-basing. Presumably, current army units will need to be re-located and provided with appropriate training facilities. This will not be a costless option. The closest example in <a href="http://www.army.mod.uk/structure/33834.aspx">current policy</a> is the re-location of the British Army from Germany to the UK, which is set to cost £1.8 billion. </p>
<p>Plaid Cymru plans to provide improved support for veterans. Again, this is a vague policy which lacks details and costings. We are not informed of the problem, its magnitude, how it will be solved, or the likely costs. <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2002.tb00064.x/abstract;jsessionid=79A4ED613FA337AE3DBB92C361C31559.f03t04">Evidence suggests</a> that the defence industry makes a direct contribution to the supply of highly qualified labour in the UK. Plaid does not provide any evidence on the employability of veterans, and whether measures such as improved training would offer a cost-effective solution. </p>
<p>There is a mention of “looking after our Armed Forces by providing a peaceful and secure world, not by putting them unnecessarily in harm’s way”. But this proposal fails to recognise that Armed Forces are likely to be involved in conflicts to provide security and protection for UK citizens, and that inevitably such conflicts will put military personnel in “harm’s way”. This raises profound questions about the definition of unnecessary conflicts, and new models of governance in a potential federal state of Wales. </p>
<p>There is also a proposal for an EU civilian peace corps. This appears to be an attractive suggestion but again, it is long on emotion and short on details. There is no indication of how much would it cost, and how the burden would be shared between EU member states. </p>
<p>Plaid also pledges to “bolster cybersecurity defence capabilities to increase security and prevent cyber-attacks”. No details are given as to how this threat will be countered, or at what cost. Cyber-attacks are certainly a real threat, but it is a UK-wide threat and not a threat specific to Wales. </p>
<h2>Tackling extremism</h2>
<p><strong>Benedict Wilkinson, King’s College London</strong></p>
<p>At only 70 words long, Plaid Cymru’s policy on tackling extremism leaves many questions unanswered. Its basic assertion is that a Welsh civic identity, promoted through a variety of channels including schools and community organisations, will challenge the ideologies that drive individuals towards extremist views and activity. Under this logic, a stronger, more inclusive identity creates a more cohesive and resilient society, which dampens extremist tendencies and cuts the extremism problem off at the roots.</p>
<p>This might sound good, but it is not without issues. First, there’s the question of what constitutes this Welsh civic identity, and how such a thing could be promoted, while maintaining its legitimacy. It’s unclear how Plaid Cymru would persuade both real and potential extremists to relinquish their radical ideological views and adopt those it prefers; particularly since the current government’s <a href="http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmcomloc/65/6504.htm">Prevent initiatives</a> to promote “identities” are widely <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8593862.stm">viewed with suspicion</a>. </p>
<p>A second issue concerns the scope of the policy – there is no mention of how much funding will it receive, or whether it will target violent extremism, non-violent extremism, or both. Nor does Plaid explain whether its policies will focus on all forms of extremism – including eco-terrorism and right wing extremism – or purely on Islamist extremism. </p>
<p>Plaid Cymru claims that its policies sits in opposition to “the UK Government’s divisive and stigmatising proposals that blame particular groups”. But in reality, they are not that far removed from one of the existing aspects of Prevent, which advocates for a “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/97976/prevent-strategy-review.pdf">stronger sense of ‘belonging’ and citizenship that makes communities more resilient to terrorist ideology and propagandists</a>” and “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/97976/prevent-strategy-review.pdf">depends on integration, democratic participation and a strong interfaith dialogue</a>”.</p>
<p><em>The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/manifesto-check-2015">Manifesto Check</a> deploys academic expertise to scrutinise the parties’ plans.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39713/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Keith Hartley receives funding from Research Councils, the EC, EDA, UN, UK Government and private industry. These funds were for academic research none of which involved Wales, and this article does not reflect the views of the research councils. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benedict Wilkinson has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. He is an Associate Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute. Views expressed here are his own.</span></em></p>Plaid Cymru doesn’t have much detail to offer when it comes to defence.Keith Hartley, Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of YorkBenedict Wilkinson, Research Fellow, King's College LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/405112015-04-22T17:54:43Z2015-04-22T17:54:43ZHere’s where Britain’s political parties stand (and fall down) on immigration<p>Immigration clearly ranks as <a href="https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3542/EconomistIpsos-MORI-March-2015-Issues-Index.aspx">one of the most important issues</a> for voters in the lead up to the UK’s election. But public opinion doesn’t always match up with the evidence, and political parties can be led in different directions by both. With this in mind, the following takes stock of the different policies about immigration, as outlined in the parties’ manifestos. </p>
<h2>Where do they stand?</h2>
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-on-immigration-ukip-offers-only-confusion-40274">UKIP</a> makes the strongest claims about immigration causing harm. The <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-conservatives-talk-tough-but-bring-nothing-new-on-immigration-40336">Conservative</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-labours-immigration-policies-are-led-by-public-opinion-not-evidence-40109">Labour</a> manifestos also tend to emphasise the negatives of immigration, real or perceived. </p>
<p><a href="http://b.3cdn.net/labouruk/e1d45da42456423b8c_vwm6brbvb.pdf#page=50">Labour says</a> the number of low-skilled immigrants is too high and points to no high-skilled categories where they’d welcome increase. Both the <a href="https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/manifesto2015/ConservativeManifesto2015.pdf#page=31">Conservatives</a> and <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/1103/attachments/original/1429295050/UKIPManifesto2015.pdf#page=10">UKIP</a> want migration to be lower overall. In their <a href="https://www.conservatives.com/%7E/media/files/activist%20centre/press%20and%20policy/manifestos/manifesto2010#page=32">2010 manifesto</a>, the Conservatives proposed to reduce net migration to the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13083781">tens of thousands</a> – a “goal” which the coalition government <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31638174">dramatically missed</a>. This time around, the party refers only to an “ambition”. </p>
<p>In contrast, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-lib-dems-take-a-more-liberal-approach-to-immigration-40259">Liberal Democrats</a> and the <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-the-green-party-offers-a-new-take-on-immigration-40186">Green Party</a> stress the benefits of immigration. Both parties propose more open policies, such as the restoration of post-study work visas for students and – in the case of the Greens – the abolition of minimum income requirements for the entry of spouses. The Greens are the most thoughtful on the global context, but their openness toward immigration is tempered by some scepticism toward immigration for business reasons or by the more affluent, citing worries about impacts on small businesses and house prices. </p>
<p>Among parties standing only in some parts of the UK, the <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-snp-migration-plans-focus-on-international-students-40506">SNP</a>, <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-plaid-cymru-wants-immigration-policy-to-address-welsh-needs-39589">Plaid Cymru</a> and the <a href="http://allianceparty.org/document/manifesto/alliance-2015-westminster-manifesto#document">Alliance Party</a> are all fairly liberal, and concerned with the regional suitability of immigration criteria. Of the Northern Irish parties, the <a href="http://uup.org/assets/images/uup%20ge%20manifesto.pdf#page=20">Ulster Unionist Party</a> and the <a href="http://dev.mydup.com/images/uploads/publications/DUP_Manifesto_2015_LR.pdf#page=9">Democratic Unionist Party</a> support immigration in moderation, while the nationalist <a href="http://www.sdlp.ie/site/assets/files/42192/westminster_manifesto.pdf#page=24">Social Democratic and Labour Party</a> and <a href="http://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2015/Westminster_Manifesto_2015_web.pdf">Sinn Féin</a> are more or less silent on the matter.</p>
<h2>An EU issue</h2>
<p>UKIP’s approach is the most innovative and the most restrictive. The party wants to make sharp cuts to levels of immigration; an approach which is tied to their core proposal of withdrawing from the EU. Instead, the party wants to establish a <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29594642">points-based system</a> which treats Commonwealth migrants comparably to European ones. </p>
<p>The Conservatives tie the issue of migration to a renegotiation of the terms of EU membership, as do the UUP. These parties question whether free movement meets the needs of established EU members. On the other hand, the SDLP’s positive comments on “<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/335088/SingleMarketFree_MovementPersons.pdf">free flow of people</a>” within the EU is as close as the party comes to discussing immigration.</p>
<p>EU withdrawal is advocated also by several parties outside the mainstream whose manifestos talk at length about immigration. The <a href="http://issuu.com/communist_party/docs/ge_manifesto">Communist Party</a> and <a href="http://www.socialist-labour-party.org.uk/SLP%20Manifesto%202015%20pdf.pdf#page=8">Socialist Labour Party</a> on the left, for example, regard the EU as an organisation promoting capitalist interests at workers’ expense. Both propose immigration policies outside the EU with humanitarian emphasis. The Socialist Labour Party propose a policy of zero net migration with priority for Commonwealth immigrants. For the <a href="http://www.englishdemocrats.org.uk/policies/full-manifesto.html#3.15">English Democrats</a> on the right, withdrawal not only from the EU but from a wide range of international agreements is regarded as essential to regaining full border control. </p>
<h2>Boon, or burden on benefits?</h2>
<p>For several parties, concerns about immigration from the EU focus on <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-does-benefits-tourism-exist-22279">migrant benefit claims</a>. Yet evidence suggests there is <a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/Preston-2014-The_Economic_Journal.pdf#page=5">little reason</a> to consider this a serious problem, and that restricting entitlements is unlikely therefore to discourage immigration. </p>
<p>The Conservatives, Labour, UKIP and DUP all want to delay receipt of benefits by migrants in various ways. The Conservative and Labour manifestos propose to rule out payment of <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/oct/23/child-benefit-payments-outside-uk">child benefit</a> for children abroad. This will raise issues with <a href="http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/amending-eu-free-movement-law-what-are.html">EU law</a>, whether renegotiating terms of the UK’s EU membership or not.</p>
<p>Stresses on public services are a prominent theme in the Conservative, Labour and UKIP manifestos alike. The Conservatives propose a fund to alleviate such pressures, which bears similarities to a <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/aug/06/fund-impact-immigration-scrapped">fund scrapped early in the last parliament</a>. </p>
<p>The best evidence suggests that migrants <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/fiscal-effects-immigration-uk">pay taxes</a> which more than cover the cost of benefits received, <a href="http://www.cream-migration.org/files/Migration-FactSheet.pdf#page=9">in cash</a> or <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/immigration-and-public-finances">in kind</a>. The net contribution of migrants should alleviate the cost of providing public services. </p>
<h2>Where’s the evidence?</h2>
<p>Costs imposed by migrants on the <a href="http://www.cream-migration.org/files/Migration-FactSheet.pdf#page=13">NHS</a> are mentioned by the Conservatives, and are repeatedly emphasised in UKIP’s discussion of immigration. In fact, immigrants are <a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/Preston-2014-The_Economic_Journal.pdf#page=9">typically healthier</a> than natives on arrival, becoming more like them the longer they stay, and make <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1475-5890.2013.00177.x/epdf">similar use of health services</a>.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, UKIP would require that most migrants arrive with private insurance. Unsurprisingly, the issue is also prominent for the <a href="http://nhap.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/National-Health-Action-Party-Election-Manifesto-2015.pdf#page=37">National Health Action party</a>. It proposes that stronger efforts be made to <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/329789/NHS_Implentatation_Plan_Phase_3.PDF">recover the costs</a> of treating migrants, but <a href="http://www.irr.org.uk/pdf2/Access_to_Health_Care.pdf">opposes refusing treatment</a> to anyone on ethical, economic and medical grounds.</p>
<p>Crime is another issue raised by Conservatives, Labour and UKIP in relation to immigration. In fact, evidence suggests migration is <a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/Preston-2014-The_Economic_Journal.pdf#page=9">unassociated</a> with <a href="http://www.cream-migration.org/files/Migration-FactSheet.pdf#page=19">changes in crime rates</a>.</p>
<p>Housing also figures in some manifestos. The Conservative party worry about use of social housing, and UKIP about housing shortages. The <a href="https://www.greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/manifesto/Green_Party_2015_General_Election_Manifesto.pdf#page=71">Greens</a>, on the other hand, worry about richer migrants pushing up house prices. Research on <a href="http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/People/sites/Stephen.Nickell/Publication%20Files/Too%20Many%20People%20in%20Britain-May%202012.pdf">migration and housing</a> is still developing, but evidence does not point to strong upward pressure on <a href="http://www.cream-migration.org/files/Migration-FactSheet.pdf#page=17">house prices</a>.</p>
<h2>Revival of student opportunity</h2>
<p>UKIP alone discusses the burden which immigration imposes on schools. Such a burden might simply arise from growing numbers, or it might follow from the difficulty of educating children of mixed backgrounds together. The <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/impact-immigration-educational-attainment-natives">international evidence</a> on <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/how-immigrant-children-affect-academic-achievement-native-dutch-children">the latter</a> is <a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/Preston-2014-The_Economic_Journal.pdf#page=8">ambiguous</a>, but negative effects of high proportions of non-native speakers in the classroom on the performance of British-born children <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/language-barriers-impact-non-native-english-speakers-classroom">seems to be ruled out</a>. </p>
<p>Instead, the treatment of foreign university students is the biggest issue linking education and migration. Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Labour promise crackdowns on <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/dec/02/students-private-higher-education-colleges-taxpayer-subsidy-benefits-nao-loans">bogus institutions</a>. </p>
<p>UKIP and the <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/libdems/pages/8907/attachments/original/1429028133/Liberal_Democrat_General_Election_Manifesto_2015.pdf#page=124">Lib Dems</a> pledge to <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_396645.pdf#page=17">separate students</a> in official statistics. Since the Lib Dems are not proposing to base targets on such statistics, the point of this is unclear. For UKIP, who do want to keep immigration down, but are not so averse to students, it makes more sense to exclude students from the count. </p>
<p>The most significant proposal here is reintroduction of the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/major-changes-to-student-visa-system">post-study work route</a>, abolished under the current government, whereby students are permitted to work for two years after completing study. The Greens promise unconditional restoration, Plaid and the SNP propose restoration for students in Wales or Scotland, and the Lib Dems propose a reintroduction specifically for STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) graduates. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/how-highly-educated-immigrants-raise-native-wages">STEM students</a> have been <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/international-graduate-students-are-critical-scientific-discovery">shown to be particularly associated</a>) with <a href="http://www.cream-migration.org/files/Migration-FactSheet.pdf#page=7">innovation, trade and entrepreneurship</a> – <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/24/immigration-tax-skills-brilliance-quality-life">issues</a> which are largely absent from the discussion about migration in any manifesto.</p>
<h2>Little effect on labour</h2>
<p>A <a href="https://fullfact.org/immigration/migration_policy_since_election-41297">cap on skilled immigration</a> would be retained by Conservative, Labour and UKIP. Indeed, UKIP would put a five-year moratorium on any unskilled immigration whatsoever, and restrict skilled immigration to 50,000 visas per year. By way of comparison, about <a href="http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/reports/highly-skilled-migration-uk-2007-2013">221,000 highly skilled non-student migrants</a> are estimated to have entered the UK for work in the three years prior to 2013. </p>
<p>Evidence on how immigration affects <a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea019.pdf#page=8">average wages</a> and <a href="http://www.cream-migration.org/commentsarticle.php?blog=3">employment</a> finds no significant adverse effects. If there are labour market effects, then they hit <a href="http://blog.oup.com/2012/07/what-effect-does-immigration-have-on-wages/">workers on the lowest wages</a>. The Conservatives, Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens all propose crackdowns on <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/migrant-workers-are-being-exploited-uk-we-must-take-action">exploitation</a>, through new legislation or greater monitoring.</p>
<p>Questions of <a href="http://www.ucl.ac.uk/%7Euctpb21/Cpapers/languageproficiency.pdf">language proficiency</a> appear in the manifestos of Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. The emphasis shifts from <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/420506/20150406_immigration_rules_appendix_b_final.pdf">testing migrants’ English</a> to offering English lessons, as the tone of the manifesto becomes more liberal.</p>
<h2>Regional differences</h2>
<p>To the extent that labour market restrictions are set nationally, they may be inappropriate for the demands of <a href="http://niesr.ac.uk/blog/migration-growth-and-jobs-positive-agenda">particular regions</a>. <a href="https://www.partyof.wales/uploads/Plaid_Cymru_2015_Westminster_Manifesto.pdf#page=38">Plaid</a>, the <a href="http://votesnp.com/docs/manifesto.pdf#page=9">SNP</a> and the Alliance Party (in Northern Ireland) all call for greater regional sensitivity of policy in various respects, and complain about policies set to suit the south of England. But the unionist parties of Northern Ireland make no similar calls, and the nationalist parties of Northern Ireland say nothing on the issue.</p>
<p>One respect in which policy may be regionally discriminatory is nationally set <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/family-and-private-life-rule-changes-9-july-2012">income thresholds</a> for <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/Templates/BriefingPapers/Pages/BPPdfDownload.aspx?bp-id=sn06724">family union</a>, which may hurt families more in lower income regions. Some suggest such policies are <a href="https://www.freemovement.org.uk/one-rule-for-the-rich/">intrinsically unjust</a>. Plaid proposes a review; the Greens would drop the policy altogether. The Conservatives alone propose a toughening, while UKIP worries about <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/256257/Sham_Marriage_and_Civil_Partnerships.pdf">sham marriages</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-32205970">Full exit checks</a>, <a href="https://fullfact.org/immigration/count_people_in_and_out_uk-37635">frequently promised</a> and already <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exit-checks-on-passengers-leaving-the-uk/exit-checks-fact-sheet">partly delivered</a>, are proposed by Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP. Labour and UKIP both promise to expand border staff.</p>
<h2>Protecting the persecuted</h2>
<p>All main parties except the Conservatives reaffirm support for <a href="http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/briefings/migration-uk-asylum">protecting victims of persecution</a>. Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens would end <a href="https://detentioninquiry.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/immigration-detention-inquiry-executive-summary.pdf">indefinite detention</a>. The Lib Dems and the Greens go further, advocating <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/299415/Permission_to_Work_Asy_v6_0.pdf">allowing asylum seekers to work</a>. </p>
<p>For those whose asylum claims fail, the Greens suggest a review of legal status, while the Lib Dems would abolish the <a href="http://www.redcross.org.uk/en/About-us/Advocacy/Refugees/Azure-payment-card">Azure card</a> system. The Greens want applicability of legal aid to immigration and asylum work extended.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40511/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Preston has been part of teams receiving funding from the Home Office, Migration Advisory Committee and Low Pay Commission for past research on migration.</span></em></p>Our immigration expert evaluates the manifestos of 16 political parties, to see how their policies on immigration stack up.Ian Preston, Professor in the Department of Economics, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/405872015-04-22T10:03:48Z2015-04-22T10:03:48ZWhat’s wrong with political manifestos, and how to fix them<p>The flurry of 2015 election manifesto releases has come to a close and <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/manifesto-check-2015">much analysis</a> has already been offered of what the various parties are offering. Understandably much of the focus has been on the likelihood these policies will win votes in what is surely the most tightly fought electoral contest for a generation. </p>
<p>But should we not be asking a deeper question about these manifestos: how far do they allow the country to actually be governed? Too little thought has been given to whether the policies contained within them can actually be implemented in practice. </p>
<p>Part of the issue is inevitably fiscal. Ed Balls, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, has <a href="https://www.politicshome.com/economy-and-work-party-politics/articles/opinion/ed-balls-mp-obr-should-audit-all-manifestos">sensibly argued</a> that the Office for Budgetary Responsibility should independently scrutinise the fiscal plans of each of the parties, making the implications of each prospectus for taxing and spending more transparent. </p>
<p>But it’s also important to ensure that policies can be delivered in the real world. Too many fiascos have originated from parties failing to adequately stress-test new policy ideas. Take, for example, the Conservatives’ “community charge” (otherwise known as the <a href="https://theconversation.com/scotland-decides-14-what-does-alex-salmond-owe-the-poll-tax-25179">poll tax</a>) from the 1987 election manifesto. That later became unworkable due to its unfairness. Then there were Labour’s individual learning accounts, which had to be abandoned in 2001 following widespread <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2001/oct/25/furthereducation.educationincrisis">financial fraud</a>.</p>
<p>The problem is that once commitments are enshrined in party manifestos they are then difficult to break, even if they look increasingly unworkable, or do not provide value for money. </p>
<p>What’s the answer? The civil service should have a formal role in working with politicians and advisers to scrutinise policy ideas prior to their inclusion in manifestos. At present, there are <a href="http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/briefing-papers/SN03318/preelection-contacts-between-civil-servants-and-opposition-parties">rules</a> governing the process by which the major opposition party consults Whitehall officials, but in practice these amount to cursory discussions between shadow cabinet ministers and permanent secretaries. The terms of engagement remain too limited.</p>
<p>Prior to 1997, civil servants in major government departments were forced to consult <a href="http://www.lrb.co.uk/v17/n05/rw-johnson/megalo">Will Hutton’s The State We’re In</a> to discover more about New Labour’s plans for government. Little did they know that Blair’s Labour Party had already jettisoned many of Hutton’s ideas for a “stakeholder economy” on the basis that they might concede too much power to the trade unions. </p>
<p>Equally, in 2010 a profusion of books about Cameron’s vision of the Big Society didn’t provide much of a guide to the coalition government’s actual programme. Even the government of the day cannot involve the civil service formally in manifesto preparation for the next parliament, as I remember from my time as a special adviser prior to the 2010 general election. </p>
<p>Whether in government or opposition, the civil service is often left in the dark about each of the major parties’ intentions. This is dysfunctional and inimical to good government. Politicians rely on civil servants to turn abstract ideas into practical policy. </p>
<p>The Office for Budgetary Responsibility and key departments must be allowed to work alongside all the main parties to produce a fiscal plan for their policies, as well as helping them work out how they’d actually implement them if they formed a government. </p>
<p>Now, more than ever, we need political parties that are sufficiently prepared for governing. The political environment has become considerably more complex as the result of greater devolution in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, as well as membership of the European Union. </p>
<p>Tony Blair admitted in his own memoirs that he had <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11148564">little idea of how to govern</a> after being elected in 1997, never having run a large organisation before. The coalition government similarly faced huge obstacles after 2010, in part due to its lack of experience. Reforming Whitehall’s role in working with the major parties would help to remedy this gap in the governance of Britain.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40587/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Diamond is a member of the Labour party. He is formally a government special adviser. </span></em></p>Civil servants are left out of manifesto writing, and we’re all worse off for it.Patrick Diamond, Lecturer in Public Policy, Queen Mary University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/403372015-04-21T16:01:38Z2015-04-21T16:01:38ZDivided we stand: nationalism on the march across Europe<p>As the lights dimmed on a televised debate ahead of the UK election, a group of four candidates clustered together at the side of the stage, shaking hands and even embracing each other. At the other extremity, a fifth candidate stood alone, peering down at his notes.</p>
<p>The huddle represented the parties on the left in this campaign, some of which could be part of a government after the May 7 vote. The lonely figure was Nigel Farage, leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP). He had just spent <a href="https://youtu.be/XTwjV7Xjdeg">an hour and a half</a> being berated by his opponents for his controversial views on immigration and the European Union and was now steering clear of post-debate pleasantries.</p>
<p>But while much distances him from the pack, he shares one important trait with two of the leaders grouped on the left. Their emergence at the forefront of British politics is down to the re-emergence of nationalism on the electoral scene in the UK.</p>
<h2>The new nationalists</h2>
<p>On the left, Plaid Cymru and the Scottish National Party are pushing their small countries to the fore in the general election. The former wants more devolved <a href="http://www.psa.ac.uk/insight-plus/blog/show-us-money-st-david%E2%80%99s-day-deal-or-no-deal">power</a> in Wales and the latter, ultimately, independence for Scotland.</p>
<p>The movements represented by Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) and Leanne Wood (Plaid) do not equate greater independence with a withdrawal from Europe or other international organisations, though. Instead, their popularity has been built on what they see as positive and inclusive images of nationhood and people. Wales and Scotland want to win influence in a central British government that has long overlooked their needs.</p>
<p>Although it offers a rather different proposition, UKIP also claims to speak to people who have been overlooked by the increasing internationalisation of their country. The party won the European elections in 2014, securing more than a quarter of the British vote, with promises to break the EU from the inside. Its victory has been held up as a forceful demonstration of how euroscepticism is spreading in the UK.</p>
<p>The more established parties have been struggling to formulate their own responses ever since. And now, in the run up to the 2015 British election, the Conservative party has made holding a referendum on EU membership a central campaign promise.</p>
<h2>After the crisis</h2>
<p>As Europe continues to struggle to emerge from the global economic crisis, reactionary attitudes like those espoused by UKIP are increasingly prevalent across the continent. </p>
<p>On the whole, apart from the left-wing movements and parties that have gathered steam in Greece and Spain – two of the countries most damaged by the crisis – progressive movements with an international outlook have failed to gain much ground in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.</p>
<p>Instead, the more illiberal form of nationalism has gathered momentum as the crisis took its toll on Europe’s love affair with globalised politics. A sense of chauvinism and ethnocentrism has trumped left-leaning and inclusive alternatives.</p>
<p>In one of the more ironic examples of this trend, the European Parliament is now populated by <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28107633">almost a third</a> of nationalist and eurosceptic members – politicians who represent their people in an organisation they want to destroy.</p>
<p>Euroscepticism has increasinlgy become linked to the far right. Traditional parties such as France’s Front National and the Danish People’s Party have hyped their anti-Europe discourse to target both the European elite (in a populist manner) and immigrants (in a traditionally xenophobic manner). Other parties founded on a hard eurosceptic platform such as UKIP and the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11095700/Anti-euro-party-Alternative-for-Germany-extends-gains-in-Germany.html">Alternative for Germany</a> have moved closer to the far right by focusing increasingly on the issue of immigration and the control of their borders in a populist attempt to broaden their appeal.</p>
<p>Most recently, Finland’s pro-European government was ousted in the national election to be replaced by a centre-right party that opposes European bailouts and wants to focus on the national economy. The far-right <a href="https://theconversation.com/finland-election-anti-eu-right-marches-onto-centre-stage-40504">True Finns</a> came second and may find a place in the government as a result.</p>
<p>But a softer type of euroscepticism has also become mainstream, and it is now increasingly popular in many centre right and conservative parties. As distrust in the electorate increases, these parties tend to argue that the European union undermines the power of national governments by imposing supranational rules on its members. Such posture is of course contradictory as many of these parties have been in power and overseen the very policies they denounce. This can be seen in <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17332458">Nicolas Sarkozy</a> demanding a reform of the Schengen Treaty, or David Cameron’s promise of a referendum on the EU.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78765/original/image-20150421-9034-4h0f79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78765/original/image-20150421-9034-4h0f79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78765/original/image-20150421-9034-4h0f79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78765/original/image-20150421-9034-4h0f79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=769&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78765/original/image-20150421-9034-4h0f79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78765/original/image-20150421-9034-4h0f79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78765/original/image-20150421-9034-4h0f79.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=966&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Italy’s Beppe Grillo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.epa.eu/politics-photos/parties-photos/-five-stars-moviment-leader-grillo-talks-to-supporters-photos-51613497">EPA/Angelo Carconi</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The failure of what is seen as an increasingly globalised system, led by an elite who seem <a href="https://theconversation.com/distrust-of-the-political-system-not-the-far-right-is-real-threat-to-our-european-future-26662">far removed</a>] from the day-to-day lives of citizens has led to the return of nationalist sentiments we thought were on the wane.</p>
<h2>The immigration game</h2>
<p>These concerns have often been simplistically linked to the issue of immigration. This has started a vicious cycle that simplifies a very complicated issue. Mainstream politicians claim voters want them to focus on immigration – and when they do, the issue is further reinforced in the minds of voters.</p>
<p>However, this negative picture of the electorate is somewhat belied by the available data.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78772/original/image-20150421-9017-18ipbfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78772/original/image-20150421-9017-18ipbfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78772/original/image-20150421-9017-18ipbfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78772/original/image-20150421-9017-18ipbfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=261&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78772/original/image-20150421-9017-18ipbfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78772/original/image-20150421-9017-18ipbfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78772/original/image-20150421-9017-18ipbfj.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=328&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How important is immigration as an issue for the EU, your country and you?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb80/eb80_first_en.pdf">Eurobarmoter</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When asked what the most important issues facing the EU were in a <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb80/eb80_first_en.pdf">2013 survey</a>, 16% of respondents answered immigration, which was the 4th most cited issue on average. When asked the same question about their own country, immigration as a central issue fell in most cases, with the notable exception of the UK (12% on average, 6th out of 13 issues).</p>
<p>When asked about the two most important issues they were facing personally, the contrast is staggering. Immigration fell to 3% on average, to the 12th most important issue. The more European citizens considered their daily lives, the less immigration seemed prominent as an issue in comparison to inflation, unemployment, the economic situation of their country and taxation. </p>
<h2>Going global to going alone</h2>
<p>This indicates we should not necessarily understand the rise of nationalism as a desire to close borders to other workers, but instead to regain control of local democracy and create a fairer environment for all.</p>
<p>As alternative and positive visions of globalisation fail to take shape or win over the public imagination, nationalist nostalgia has provided a comforting narrative for some. People can reminisce and embellish their fantasised memories of the good old days when “we” felt at home, politics was not corrupt and politicians listened to “us”.</p>
<p>Despite this, it seems clear that UKIP will at best only win a handful of seats in the British election, but the media coverage of the party and its success in the EU elections has greatly amplified its message. </p>
<p>On the left, though, the Scottish nationalists appear poised to make big gains and are pitching themselves to voters as being a potential force for social democracy across the UK. Their rise has shown that a large part of the population want politics to be done differently, and that such demands should not be merely seen as reactionary calls.</p>
<p>The rise of these movements defined by regional and national identity across the spectrum has shown that a large part of the population wants politics to be done differently, and that such demands should not be merely seen as reactionary. </p>
<p>With assorted potential crises looming and ambitious and urgent action needed on issues such as global warming, exclusivist forms of nationalism such as that on the far right could have dramatic effect on the future of Europe and beyond. It is therefore crucial not to simplify the contestation of the current political system (both at the national and EU levels) as a wish for a return to closed borders and politics. </p>
<p>As collective international action has become unavoidable, it is crucial for Europe to regain a sense of unity and common purpose, based on a more positive and inclusive understanding of globalisation.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Aurelien Mondon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The SNP, Plaid Cymru and UKIP are the new faces in the UK election in 2015 but they reflect a wider change.Aurelien Mondon, Lecturer in French and Comparative Politics, University of BathLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/404092015-04-20T17:02:57Z2015-04-20T17:02:57ZFact Check: how much of the UK budget is spent on defence?<blockquote>
<p>We already spend 6% of our budget on defence. I think that that proportion can be spent more wisely.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><strong>Leanne Wood, Plaid Cymru leader, during the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05r87pr/bbc-election-debate-2015">BBC Challenger’s debate</a></strong>. </p>
<p>The claim that the UK spends 6% of its national budget on defence can be readily checked. Looking at past expenditure, the claim was on the low side: the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/391109/20141212-Departmental-ResourcesJM_Version_7-U.pdf">actual figure for 2013-2014</a> put defence spending at 7.5% of UK public expenditure – or £49.9 billion of a total £664.1 billion.</p>
<p>Plaid Cymru have pointed to the government’s total managed expenditure, which <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/330717/PESA_2014_-_print.pdf">was at £714.3 billion</a> in 2013-14, putting the percentage spent on defence 7%. </p>
<p>In his <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/416330/47881_Budget_2015_Web_Accessible.pdf">2015 budget</a>, chancellor George Osborne set out figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility looking at the proportion of £743 billion in total managed expenditure for 2015-16 spent on different sectors. Defence spending is estimated at £45 billion – just over 6% of the total.</p>
<p>However, defence spending data is usually presented differently, with the share of GDP often used as an indicator of a nation’s defence burden. In 2014, UK defence <a href="http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database">spending was at 2.2% of GDP</a>, according to the 2015 SIPRI Military Expenditure Database. </p>
<p>In the UK, the long-term trend for defence spending as a share of GDP has been downwards. In 1953, during the Korean War, the UK share was 9.9%; by 1982, during the Falklands conflict, it was 5.3% and at the end of the Cold War in 1990, it stood at 3.8%. The declining share figures have resulted from a succession of defence reviews as the UK has adjusted its role and commitments. </p>
<p>The UK’s 2014 share figure compares favourably with other NATO nations as the graph below shows. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=289&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78577/original/image-20150420-25679-17wp37c.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=363&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>The relatively high share of GDP spent by the UK on defence reflects the country’s world military role. This has led to the acquisition of a nuclear deterrent (Trident), nuclear-powered submarines, Type 45 destroyer warships, aircraft carriers, F-35 carrier-based aircraft together with strategic air tankers, Typhoon jets, heavy lift and attack helicopters and an army with an expeditionary role. </p>
<p>These are costly capabilities. For example, the Typhoon programme <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-defence-statistics-compendium-2014">will cost</a> £18.1 billion, the strategic air tanker £11.4 billion, the Astute submarines £9.4 billion and the total equipment procurement programme is estimated to cost some £69 billion between 2014 and 2024. </p>
<p>The share of GDP spent on defence is just one measure of a nation’s defence effort. Other measures include the level of defence spending in real terms (adjusted for inflation), the numbers of military personnel and the numbers of front-line equipment such as fast jet squadrons, warships and tanks. International comparisons can be made using the levels of defence spending in real terms as shown in the table below. On this basis, the UK ranks sixth in the world. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=267&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/78580/original/image-20150420-25708-s6vn0g.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=336&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<p>However, levels of defence spending and the share of GDP do not measure UK defence output in the form of peace, protection and security. There is a complete absence of any indicator of the monetary value of defence output for any nation in the world. Instead, defence output is often assumed to be equivalent to defence expenditure. </p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>The claim that the UK spends 6% of its budget on defence is on the low side and for 2013-14, it was actually 7%. Going by OBR estimations, the UK could spend 6% of its public expenditure for 2015-16 on defence. But usually, defence burdens are measured by the share of national output or GDP spent on defence, rather than shares of the national budget. </p>
<h2>Review</h2>
<p>This response to the question is careful and I agree with the verdict. At first sight the 6% figure looks high because most of the debate in the election has been around the commitment to spend <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31857044">2% of GDP</a> on defence made to NATO. But the 2% is a percentage of GDP and the 6% is a percentage of the budget: government expenditure. The difference indicates the importance of knowing what is in the bottom line of a percentage. </p>
<p>Whether that money could be spent more wisely is a matter of judgement and there has been considerable debate about the appropriate structure of the forces: how much should be spent on army, navy and air force. And within those totals, there are also debates on the relative importance of different elements such as Trident replacement and purchase of F35 aircraft for the carriers. </p>
<p><em>This article was updated on April 21 with additional information on total managed expenditure for 2013-14.</em> </p>
<div class="callout">The Conversation is fact checking political statements in the lead-up to the May UK general election. Statements are checked by an academic with expertise in the area. A second academic expert reviews an anonymous copy of the article.<br><br><a href="https://theconversation.com/factchecks/new">Click here to request a check</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible. You can also email factcheck@theconversation.com </div><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40409/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood has questioned whether the UK should spent 6% of its budget on defence. Has she got her numbers right?Keith Hartley, Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of YorkLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/404322015-04-18T15:23:01Z2015-04-18T15:23:01ZManifesto Check: Plaid Cymru’s top policies<p><em>Welcome to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/manifesto-check-2015">Manifesto Check</a>, where academics subject each party’s election manifesto to unbiased, expert scrutiny. Here is what our experts had to say about the Plaid Cymru’s top policies. Follow the links for further analysis.</em></p>
<h2>Devolution</h2>
<p><strong>Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science at Cardiff University, and Richard Wyn Jones, Professor of Politics at Cardiff University</strong></p>
<p>That Plaid Cymru advocates more devolution for Wales must be one of the least surprising findings of The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/manifesto-check-2015">Manifesto Check</a>. Yet there are two elements in the framing of the party’s arguments, which are noteworthy.</p>
<p>The first is the party’s stress on parity with Scotland: “Wales should have the same powers as Scotland”. This is an argument that the party believes has considerable appeal in Wales. Indeed, both Labour First Minister <a href="http://www.clickonwales.org/2012/11/assembly-needs-reserved-powers-model/">Carwyn Jones</a> and Conservative Secretary of State <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/stephen-crabb-sets-himself-collision-8123087">Stephen Crabb</a> have argued that Wales should be offered – though not necessarily accept – the same <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-westminster-delivers-scotland-will-have-one-of-the-worlds-most-powerful-devolved-parliaments-34778">powers on offer to Scotland</a> through the Smith Commission process and its aftermath. </p>
<p>Plaid Cymru both removes the caveat from this position, and extends the argument. For Plaid, parity of treatment with Scotland also means devolving those areas of policy that are already currently still organised on an England and Wales basis.</p>
<p>Read more <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-surprise-plaid-cymru-calls-for-radical-devolution-of-powers-39887">here</a>.</p>
<h2>Economy</h2>
<p><strong>John Fender, Professor of Macroeconomics at University of Birmingham</strong></p>
<p>When it comes to finance and monetary policy, the Plaid Cymru manifesto contains some sensible policies – and some less sensible. </p>
<p>Plaid makes a number of suggestions for monetary policy, including Welsh representation on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and giving the Governor a statutory requirement to attend National Assembly for Wales scrutiny meetings. Also, the party seemingly wants to change <a href="http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/Documents/pdf/chancellorletter180315.pdf">the Bank of England’s remit</a> by making it “responsible for considering the needs of the whole, wider economy, including regionally-balanced economic growth, unemployment and inflation amongst other indicators,” although precisely how it intends to change the remit is not clear. </p>
<p>Read more <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-plaid-cymrus-monetary-and-financial-policies-39720">here</a>. </p>
<p><strong>Chris Martin, Professor of Economics at University of Bath</strong></p>
<p>Plaid Cymru’s manifesto on growth combines a clear rejection of austerity with a mix of industrial intervention and directed use of public expenditure to support and nurture the Welsh economy. This is line with the approach being taken by other smaller parties in the general election, including the SNP, the Greens and (in some respects) the Liberal Democrats. It is pitched at the sort of left-leaning voter these parties are hoping to attract away from Labour. The numbers more-or-less stack up, but there are issues around whether some of the policies would represent value for money for taxpayers.</p>
<p>Plaid’s approach is based around a rejection of the austerity policies, which the coalition government has followed for the past five years. This is in line with other smaller parties such as the SNP and the Greens and, to a lesser extent, the Labour Party. More widely, views on austerity are mixed. Already, 100 business leaders supported the continuation of austerity <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11507586/General-Election-2015-Labour-threatens-Britains-recovery-say-100-business-chiefs.html">in The Telegraph</a>, but <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32143952">a clear majority of the leading economists</a> does not, instead arguing that <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/election-economics-austerity-past-present-and-future/">it harms growth</a>. </p>
<p>The manifesto argues that “the cuts … have had such a detrimental effect on our way of life and hit the poorest in our society the hardest”. Evidence from the Institute for Fiscal Studies <a href="http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/5299">supports this view</a>, but on the other hand, the increase in taxes has fallen most heavily on the richest 10% (in terms of cash – but not as a share of income).</p>
<p>Read more <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-plaid-cymru-rejects-austerity-but-their-policies-could-cost-taxpayers-39718">here</a>. </p>
<h2>Immigration</h2>
<p><strong>Ian Preston, Professor of Economics at UCL</strong></p>
<p>Wales has a <a href="http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/ea019.pdf#page=8">lower immigrant population</a> than almost any other region in the UK. Plaid Cymru’s manifesto adopts an unabashedly positive tone, much more focused on the benefits of immigration – referring to migrants as “world-class experts and those who can help run our public services” – compared to what we might expect from some of the other parties. Unsurprisingly, the need for immigration policy to recognise the specific needs of Wales is a central theme. Plaid wants to pursue immigration policies in accordance with the needs of the Welsh labour market, but such changes could be difficult to implement in the current context.</p>
<p>Immigration rules are a form of labour market restriction that may match the needs of some regions better than others. For instance, restrictive policies based on a UK-wide assessment that there are no skill shortages may be ill-suited to the needs of regions where skills are in short supply – particularly if those regions find it difficult to attract skilled workers from within the country. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/406775/Partial_review_of_the_SOL_for_UK_and_Scotland_Report.pdf">Assessments of skill shortages</a> made by the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/migration-advisory-committee">Migration Advisory Committee</a> (MAC) as a basis for decisions on visa policy can take into account submissions by regional bodies, but are not currently region-specific, except for the special consideration of <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/406775/Partial_review_of_the_SOL_for_UK_and_Scotland_Report.pdf#page=139">Scotland</a>. The Plaid Cymru manifesto proposes the creation of a Welsh Migration Service to assess Welsh skill needs and liaise with the MAC. It also contains a proposal, for example, that the Welsh government should be allowed to decide which companies can sponsor immigrant workers within Wales.</p>
<p>Read more <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-plaid-cymru-wants-immigration-policy-to-address-welsh-needs-39589">here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/40432/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Richard Wyn Jones is a member of Dyfodol, a civil society organisation campaigning for equality for the Welsh language. The Conversation's Manifesto Checks are produced in partnership with Nesta and the Alliance for Useful Evidence. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Martin does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations. The Conversation's Manifesto Checks are produced in partnership with Nesta and the Alliance for Useful Evidence. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Preston has been part of teams receiving funding from the Home Office, Migration Advisory Committee and Low Pay Commission for past research on migration. The Conversation's Manifesto Checks are produced in partnership with Nesta and the Alliance for Useful Evidence. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Fender does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations. The Conversation's Manifesto Checks are produced in partnership with Nesta and the Alliance for Useful Evidence. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Roger Scully does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations. The Conversation's Manifesto Checks are produced in partnership with Nesta and the Alliance for Useful Evidence. </span></em></p>Our experts check if Plaid Cyrmu’s policies measure up.Richard Wyn Jones, Professor of Politics, Cardiff UniversityChris Martin, Professor of Economics, University of BathIan Preston, Professor in the Department of Economics, UCLJohn Fender, Professor of Macroeconomics, University of BirminghamRoger Awan-Scully, Professor of Political Science, Cardiff UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/398222015-04-17T15:00:02Z2015-04-17T15:00:02ZWhat would immigration look like under a progressive coalition?<p>One of the most charged moments of the third televised debate ahead of the 2015 election saw the leaders of the three smaller progressive parties round on UKIP’s Nigel Farage over his views on immigration.</p>
<p>With the smaller left-wing parties enjoying unprecedented coverage in the first few weeks of the 2015 election campaign, attention is turning to what their priorities actually are beyond better financial settlements for Scotland and Wales. And since immigration is one of the biggest issues, it’s time to think about what a shared policy in this area would look like.</p>
<p>Ed Miliband flatly rejected a collaboration with the Nicola Sturgeon during the debate. But if he manages to form a government after May 7, he may <a href="https://theconversation.com/challenger-debate-shows-cameron-should-be-afraid-but-not-as-afraid-as-nick-clegg-40358">find</a> that he will have to rely on support from some combination of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party to survive. He may, as a result, face pressure to make concessions in certain areas.</p>
<p>The message from the so-called progressive alliance – made up of the Green Party, Plaid Cyrmu and the SNP – is that it <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32166354">opposes</a> demonising and scapegoating immigrants. This is pretty radical given that the three biggest parties and UKIP continue to push a familiar message of control and reduction. </p>
<p>Here’s how the various players in this interesting dynamic currently stand:</p>
<h2>A federal system from the SNP</h2>
<p>The SNP wants a federal immigration policy. The Scottish government would be able to tinker with the details on work and student immigration to reflect the specific needs of the Scottish economy. Scotland already has this to some extent. It has its own <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/308513/shortageoccupationlistapril14.pdf">shortage list for skilled occupations</a> that is separate to the wider UK. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s message is clear – immigration rules should be based on what is good for the economy, not driven by UKIP pandering. </p>
<p>The SNP is particularly opposed to the coalition’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-is-immigration-policy-discouraging-foreign-students-36539">student immigration policy</a>. Sturgeon claims that Scotland is being deprived of top graduates as a result of the UK government’s decision to include students in net migration targets. To move away from this approach, the SNP would re-introduce the post-study work visa, which allows graduates to stay in the UK to work for two years after finishing university. </p>
<h2>Low priority in Wales</h2>
<p>Like the SNP, Plaid Cymru wants a <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/plaid-cymru-want-wales-say-6737031">federal immigration policy</a>. Party leader Leanne Wood agrees with Sturgeon on the need to <a href="https://theconversation.com/manifesto-check-plaid-cymru-wants-immigration-policy-to-address-welsh-needs-39589">fill local economic gap</a>s with migrant workers.</p>
<p>But Plaid doesn’t have much of a policy beyond this. That’s possibly because immigration is not as pressing an issue for voters in Wales – or indeed Scotland – as it is perceived to be elsewhere in the UK. The small national parties therefore don’t need to win the electorate over in the way the bigger UK parties seem to think they do. </p>
<h2>Greens for family values</h2>
<p>The Greens certainly have the most ideologically rooted vision of what an immigration policy should look like. Immigration, for this party, is a consequence of wider inequalities in the global system. So while the Greens still talk about controlling immigration, they want to do it in a <a href="http://policy.greenparty.org.uk/mg.html">fair and humane way</a>.</p>
<p>This would mean progressively reducing immigration controls – particularly those that <a href="https://theconversation.com/family-first-government-tears-couples-apart-with-visa-rules-30836">harm family life</a>. </p>
<p>There’s a fair amount of substance in the Greens’ policy on these specific issues. Yet whether they consider current immigration figures acceptable or not is far from clear. </p>
<h2>Labour talks tough</h2>
<p>In contrast to the fringe parties, immigration is a key issue for Labour. If the party fails to get the immigration message right, it stands to lose voters. With this in mind, it has made controlling immigration one of its core election pledges. Nobody is clear on precisely what this means but it’s familiar terrain, indistinguishable from the rhetoric of both their predecessors and the Conservatives. </p>
<p>By far the loudest and most consistent message we’ve heard from Labour is Ed Miliband apologising for the “mistakes” made by his predecessors. This is understandable, given how displeased the electorate was with the managed migration policy. The trouble is, it lacks any kind of substance and fails to provide the electorate with any clear idea of how things would change under a Miliband-led government.</p>
<p>Policies that have been trailed include new laws to prevent employers undercutting wages, an enforcement of the minimum wage, recruit an additional 1,000 border staff and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/operators-ready-for-introduction-of-exit-checks">introducing exit checks</a>. Labour will also <a href="http://b.3cdn.net/labouruk/e1d45da42456423b8c_vwm6brbvb.pdf">retain the cap on non-EU workers</a>, presumably this refers to the Tier 2 annual limit. Whether Labour would keep the net migration target remains to be seen.</p>
<p>Coupled with the ban on claiming welfare entitlements for the first two years of residence, there is, as Jack Straw said more than ten years ago, barely a cigarette paper separating Labour and Tory policy on immigration. </p>
<h2>Imagining a progressive policy</h2>
<p>If a progressive alliance formed after May 7 from a combination of these parties, there could be a lot to play for when it comes to immigration. </p>
<p>We’d see the re-introduction of the <a href="http://www.ukcisa.org.uk/International-Students/The-next-stage/Working-after-your-studies/">post-study work visa</a>. This could possibly include more liberal rights attached to student visas in terms of working and family reunification in a bid to attract more international students to Scottish universities. </p>
<p>Family rights is likely to be a point of principle for the Greens. They will want to see changes made to protect family life, and will campaign hard to reduce delays and excessive requirements on proof of relationships. </p>
<p>Where we do see a divide between the Greens and the SNP is on the selection of migrants. While Plaid and the SNP are clear that they need a system underpinned by labour market needs, the Greens state that preference should not be given to those with resources or desirable skills. They see this as a form of discrimination.</p>
<p>Labour’s approach to potential undercutting and job displacement by tackling rogue employers and <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/making-the-labour-market-more-flexible-efficient-and-fair/supporting-pages/setting-and-enforcing-the-national-minimum-wage">a stricter enforcement of minimum wage</a> is something all the parties can agree on. Such proposals chime nicely with the Greens’ ambitions to end the exploitation of workers and provide better protection under the law. </p>
<p>But ultimately, when Labour enters into the mix, a coherent immigration policy based on the stated plans of the other fringe parties will be tricky. The SNP and Plaid will push for greater devolution, which might include greater control on skilled migration, setting their own annual quotas if the limit was maintained. Wales might also bring in a separate shortage occupation list, like Scotland. But it is highly unlikely that Labour will agree to a federal immigration system. </p>
<p>The approach being taken by the women party leaders in this election represents a genuinely progressive turn in a debate that has been fuelled by UKIP’s populism. Yet immigration is not a key area for the fringe parties, ideologically or electorally. And since it is for Labour, the larger party will probably win out in negotiations. Whichever parties make an alliance, agreement or coalition in May, Labour will not give way on its core plans for immigration.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39822/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Erica Consterdine has previously received funding from the ESRC and currently works on research funded by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration. This article does not reflect the views of the research councils.</span></em></p>Smaller party leaders could push for a more generous approach if called upon to support a Labour government.Erica Consterdine, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Immigration Politics & Policy, University of SussexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/398412015-04-13T15:57:34Z2015-04-13T15:57:34ZManifesto Check: Plaid using old policy for its new transport vision<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/77338/original/image-20150408-18080-1xinfy5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Plaid Cymru want to expand the Welsh government's Bwcabus service</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/3050133">credit: John Bristow</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>First and foremost, it’s worth noting that <a href="https://www.gov.uk/devolution-settlement-wales">powers over transport are devolved</a> to the Welsh Assembly. The <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/5/contents">government of Wales act 2006</a> gave the Welsh Assembly the power over Welsh public and local transport systems. This means that the policies discussed in Plaid’s transport manifesto will be chiefly relevant to Welsh voters at next year’s National Assembly elections, rather than voters at this year’s general election.</p>
<p>There is no evidence in this manifesto regarding how the various schemes proposed are to be funded. Much of the transport policy is a recycling of old ideas; for example, the public ownership of the railways, a fuel duty regulator, and rail electrification. Some of this – rail electrification, for instance – is <a href="http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/south-wales-rail-electrification-scheme-8146631">already going ahead</a>, but these are expensive and complex infrastructure projects which cannot occur overnight, nor even within a five-year term in government. </p>
<h2>New routes for rail, buses, and planes</h2>
<p>The reopening of railway lines, which Plaid advocates, is also a major long-term project. Even if the route has not been built over, ownership of the land may have transferred into private hands. On top of this, such schemes will have as many opponents as proponents; consider the <a href="http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2806937/High-speed-rail-tsar-spark-fresh-controversy-HS2-route-stations-recommendations.html">current controversy</a> over HS2 in the North of England. </p>
<p>Plaid makes no mention of the potential role of light rapid transit, such as trams, guided busways, or bus rapid transit in the proposed South Wales Metro. These could all complement heavy rail routes and could be much cheaper and quicker to construct.</p>
<p>The party talks of retaining free bus passes, but do not say if they will pay a fair reimbursement rate to encourage operators to retain or expand the commercial bus network. The retention of early morning and late evening bus services is to be welcomed, and should be expanded to include Sunday services. The Bwcabus proposal – which aims to expand <a href="http://transport.research.southwales.ac.uk/BWCABUS/">the Welsh government’s door-to-door bus service</a> – is also to be applauded, but it must be well-funded to succeed. Such funding should be continuous and not time limited. Plaid’s proposal for a multi-modal Smartcard – like London’s Oyster card – is both desirable and achievable. </p>
<p>The current options for “London Airport Expansion” appear to have ruled out <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/349518/decision-and-summary.pdf">a new airport in the Thames Estuary</a>, as Plaid says it will not support a new airport to the east of London. If Plaid is supporting expansion of Heathrow (the nearest option to South Wales with direct motorway and rail access), then it should be explicit about this.</p>
<h2>Fuel rebates for rural areas</h2>
<p>A fuel duty regulator, a position Plaid would like to instate, would have prevented motorists from enjoying the recent benefits of lower crude oil prices, as it would have increased the fuel duty. Most former proponents of this scheme <a href="http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2011/03/scottish-tories-add-to-the-pressure-on-george-osborne-to-cancel-the-fuel-duty-increase.html">such as the Scottish Conservatives</a> have now gone very quiet. The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/european-commission-approves-new-rural-fuel-tax-cut">“Deep Rural” fuel duty rebate scheme</a>, which Plaid want to introduce in Wales, is expensive to administer and delivers small benefits to very few people. </p>
<p>Many rural motorists fill their tanks when they visit nearby towns especially if there is a petrol station at the supermarket. It would be better to exempt rural petrol retailers from business rates, to encourage them to remain in business and so keep a modicum of competition in the rural petrol and diesel retail market. This, together with better availability of fuel in rural areas, would benefit both local residents and tourists.</p>
<p>Plaid’s plan to encourage more electric vehicles by increasing the number of charging points has potential in urban South East Wales. But in other parts of the nation, “range anxiety” is likely to be a limiting factor, especially since an electric vehicle’s range is also affected by the extra power needed to climb steep hills, like those found throughout inland Mid- and North Wales. </p>
<p>The argument for the Welsh Transport Commissioner (a reference to the <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/people/nick-jones#current-roles">Traffic Commissioner</a>) to be based in Wales is a valid one. At present the commissioner – who is also responsible for the West Midlands – is based in England, something Plaid would like to change.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/39841/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Disney received funding from DfT, Nottingham City Council and public research fundingin the past but has no current funding.He is a Director of the Dales & Bowland CIC and Trustee and Council Member of the Royal Statistical Society</span></em></p>Regulators, rebates and retaining bus services - Plaid’s transport policy offers a lot, but little explanation on how to fund it.John Disney, Senior Lecturer, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.