tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/polarization-28849/articlesPolarization – The Conversation2024-02-29T11:23:50Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2245902024-02-29T11:23:50Z2024-02-29T11:23:50ZA personal tale of intellectual humility – and the rewards of being open-minded<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/578586/original/file-20240228-26-70gajp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=113%2C142%2C4531%2C2945&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Intellectual humility is about being open to changing your mind. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/signpost-countryside-landscape-image-retro-filtered-249397120">tomertu/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>With unlimited information at our fingertips and dozens of platforms on which to share our opinions, it can sometimes feel like we’re supposed to be experts in everything. It can be exhausting. </p>
<p>In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast, we talk to a psychologist whose research and experiences of intellectual humility have taught him that acknowledging what we don’t know is as important as asserting what we do know. </p>
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<p>To Daryl Van Tongeren, the pressure to be right all the time is an “unassailably tall order”. He believes that we’re living in a moment where even when people make mistakes, apologize and say they’ve changed their minds, it isn’t good enough. </p>
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<p>We demand perfection. Not only perfection now but also perfection in one’s past and perfection in one’s future.</p>
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<p>Van Tongeren is a psychology researcher at Hope College in Michigan in the U.S. who conducts research into the concept of intellectual humility. He explains it as something that happens both within us – “our ability to admit and own our cognitive limitations” – and in our relationships with others. “It means being able to present my ideas or interact with someone in a way that’s nondefensive,” he says.</p>
<p>Overall, if somebody is intellectually humble, they are willing to be open-minded enough to revise their beliefs if presented with sufficiently strong evidence. </p>
<p>Van Tongeren’s own experience of family tragedy meant that he had to address these questions head-on in his late 20s. </p>
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<p>All of a sudden I found myself having to try to make sense of what seemed like this senseless suffering. And so it really plunged me into this period of questioning everything, questioning some of the deep beliefs that I’d held and been taught since I was very, very young.</p>
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<p>Listen to <a href="https://pod.link/1550643487">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast to hear Daryl Van Tongeren talking about his personal journey of intellectual humility, as well as explain the latest research on how to nurture it. The episode also includes an interview with Maggie Villiger, senior science and technology editor at The Conversation in the U.S.</p>
<p>Read more articles from <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/intellectual-humility-125132">our series on intellectual humility</a>. </p>
<p><em>A transcript of this <a href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/static_files/files/3169/Intellectual_Humility_Transcript.docx.pdf?1710952487">episode is now available</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Katie Flood, with assistance from Mend Mariwany. Gemma Ware is the executive producer. Sound design was by Eloise Stevens, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. Stephen Khan is our global executive editor, Alice Mason runs our social media and Soraya Nandy does our transcripts.</em></p>
<p><em>You can find us on X, formerly known as Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/">theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also subscribe to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter">free daily email here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a> or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/224590/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Some of the work described in this podcast was supported by grants from The John Templeton Foundation to Daryl Van Tongeren and his colleagues. The Converation's series on intellectual humility was produced with support from UC Berkeley's Greater Good Science Center and the John Templeton Foundation as part of the GGSC's initiative on Expanding Awareness of the Science of Intellectual Humility.</span></em></p>Daryl Van Tongeren explains what it means to be intellectually humble, and why it’s so important right now on The Conversation Weekly podcast.Gemma Ware, Editor and Co-Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2219192024-02-25T14:20:58Z2024-02-25T14:20:58ZWhy the West’s resentment of China is so misguided<p>Over the past few years, <a href="https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/08/24/why-chinas-economy-wont-be-fixed">some western commentators</a> have proclaimed the “decline of China.” They argue <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/responses/who-killed-chinese-economy">China’s economy is failing</a>, its <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/root-chinas-growing-youth-unemployment-crisis">youth are alienated and unemployed</a>, it <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/09/13/chinas-beautiful-xinjiang-continues-oppress-uighurs">abuses human rights and represses its people</a> and <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/chinas-shrinking-population-and-constraints-on-its-future-power/">its demographic decline means that China will never rise to surpass western power</a>. </p>
<p>The subtext of this focus on China’s problems is that western domination of the world will continue, proving the superiority of the West’s political and economic ideologies.</p>
<p>These eulogies for China are premature, at best. </p>
<p><a href="https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/why-economists-failed-to-predict-the-financial-crisis/">Economists in the West</a> <a href="https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v31/n22/john-gray/we-simply-do-not-know">don’t fully understand western economies</a>, let alone China’s, and <a href="https://www.edelman.com/trust/2023/trust-barometer">western states have numerous fundamental problems of their own</a>. </p>
<h2>Drumbeat of negativity</h2>
<p>China is experiencing <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/10/08/has-the-chinese-economy-hit-the-wall/">economic headwinds as it transitions to a new model of economic development</a>. It is <a href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/five-years-trade-war-china-continues-its-slow-decoupling-us-exports">also contending with</a> <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/16/u.s.-china-trade-war-has-become-cold-war-pub-85352">western economic</a> and <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/why-the-united-states-is-losing-the-tech-war-with-china">technological sabotage</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-american-technological-war-against-china-could-backfire-219158">Why the American technological war against China could backfire</a>
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<p>How well China manages these forces remains to be seen. </p>
<p>An objective analysis of China’s economy is required, but the constant drumbeat of negativity emerging from the West makes that difficult. Some of it is a <a href="https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/china-news/21091-a-500-million-dollar-business-america-s-state-sponsored-anti-china-propaganda.html">concerted propaganda campaign, financed by the United States</a>, to undermine America’s biggest competitor. But the trend also reflects the <a href="https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3223603/what-used-be-called-yellow-peril-now-china-threat">western world’s racial and political anxieties</a> and its profound insecurities about its own failures and decline. </p>
<p>For hundreds of years, <a href="http://ieg-ego.eu/en/threads/backgrounds/colonialism-and-imperialism">the West has used imperialism and violence to construct an international system</a> that ensures its prosperity and prioritizes its interests. Keeping the Global South subservient to a Eurocentric world order has been critical to this strategy. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/world/south-africa-icj-israel-genocide/">Israel’s attack on Gaza, killing tens of thousands of Palestinians</a> — along with the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/12/how-the-us-uk-bombing-of-yemen-might-help-the-houthis">associated American and British bombings of Yemen</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us-launches-retaliatory-strikes-iraq-syria-nearly-40-reported-killed-2024-02-03/">Iraq and Syria</a> — are contemporary manifestations of this phenomenon. </p>
<p>China’s rise is the first time in modern history that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6811-1_25">a non-European state beyond western control</a> is economically eclipsing the West. <a href="https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/05/09/who-hates-chinas-rise-the-most-from-the-yellow-peril-to-the-biggest-challenger/">The “yellow peril” is back</a>, and the West will now need to compromise and negotiate with a powerful, non-western entity. </p>
<p>It cannot simply impose its will on the Global South, though the American campaign against China is an effort to re-establish this status quo.</p>
<p>To the West, this was not how it was supposed to be.</p>
<h2>China forged its own path</h2>
<p>According to American political scientist Francis Fukuyama, the end of the Cold War was the <a href="https://pages.ucsd.edu/%7Ebslantchev/courses/pdf/Fukuyama%20-%20End%20of%20History.pdf">“end of history,”</a> meaning that liberal democratic capitalism is the final and best form of government for all nations. </p>
<p>This political and economic system, embodied by the West (especially the United States), <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/06/24/how-the-two-big-ideas-of-the-post-cold-war-era-failed/">was supposedly the only path to success</a>. The West was held up as pinnacle of achievement that the entire world should emulate.</p>
<p>China <a href="https://asiasociety.org/blog/asia/how-china-survived-end-history">disproved this narrative</a> <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/01/lifting-800-million-people-out-of-poverty-new-report-looks-at-lessons-from-china-s-experience">by achieving extraordinary economic and technological developments with unprecedented speed</a>, and it did so by following its own path. It is a major player in the world economy, but has refused to become a western <a href="https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/vassal">vassal state</a>. </p>
<p>At the same time, the western world has failed in many measurable and obvious ways, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis. Europe is facing <a href="https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/02/14/eurozone-avoids-recession-but-remains-stagnant-as-germany-struggles">economic stagnation</a>, <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/05/11/changing-continent-the-eus-population-is-declining-new-figures-reveal">demographic decline</a> and increasingly <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/fake-news-and-personal-attacks-how-the-political-right-took-down-europes-green-agenda/">toxic politics</a>. </p>
<p>Western youth are alienated and <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/trust-nicola-sturgeon-prime-minister-mark-drakeford-jeremy-hunt-b2290758.html">pessimistic</a>. The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-imf-growth-military-spending-economy-2024-1">West’s failure to destroy Russia’s economy with sanctions</a> following its invasion of Ukraine is evidence of decreasing western economic power. Its <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/1/17/gaza-will-be-the-grave-of-the-western-led-world-order">absolute moral failure</a> in Gaza is tragically apparent.</p>
<h2>American decline</h2>
<p>But the most spectacular and consequential example of western decline is the United States. On paper, the U.S. economy is performing <a href="https://www.commerce.gov/news/blog/2024/01/numbers-us-economy-grows-faster-expected-year-and-final-quarter-2023#:%7E:text=Helpful%20Not%20helpful-,By%20the%20Numbers%3A%20U.S.%20Economy%20Grows%20Faster%20than%20Expected%20for,and%20Final%20Quarter%20of%202023&text=Today%2C%20the%20U.S.%20Commerce%20Department's,quarter%20of%202023%20exceeding%20expectations.">moderately well</a>. In practice, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/2/8/americas-underemployment-problem">under-employment</a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-income-inequality-rose-3-years-through-2022-fed-data-shows-2023-10-18/">and economic</a> <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/203961/wealth-distribution-for-the-us/#:%7E:text=In%20the%20third%20quarter%20of,percent%20of%20the%20total%20wealth.">inequality are posing major problems</a>. </p>
<p>Many Americans <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/mood-by-microbe/202311/defusing-armageddon-why-are-so-many-americans-angry">are angry</a>, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/24/americans-take-a-dim-view-of-the-nations-future-look-more-positively-at-the-past/">disillusioned</a> <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/07/22/key-findings-about-americans-declining-trust-in-government-and-each-other/">and polarized</a>. American politics are dysfunctional and blatantly <a href="https://www.citizen.org/news/twelve-years-since-citizens-united-big-money-corruption-keeps-getting-worse/">corrupted by money</a>. Even the <a href="https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/25/23697394/supreme-court-clarence-thomas-neil-gorsuch-corruption-harlan-crow-constitution">highest judiciary has been accused of corruption</a>.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/can-americans-be-shielded-from-the-u-s-supreme-court-186084">Can Americans be shielded from the U.S. Supreme Court?</a>
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<p>In the next presidential election, Americans may well <a href="https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/">re-elect</a> Donald Trump, someone <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-new-york-indictment-1.7115927">who epitomizes</a> <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68175846">this corruption</a>. </p>
<p>The U.S. government also continues to stir up <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/02/12/us-foreign-policy-bombing-deterrence-north-korea-nuclear-sanctions/">violence and instability around the world</a> rather than dealing with its own <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/01/us/politics/richard-haass-biden-trump-foreign-policy.html">enormous domestic problems</a>.</p>
<h2>China’s achievements</h2>
<p>Over the past 20 years, China’s transformation has been astonishing. Its modern cities feature <a href="https://www.re-thinkingthefuture.com/travel-and-architecture/a8407-buildings-of-china-15-architectural-marvels-every-architect-must-see/">marvels of architecture</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ibRorZwnZl8">well-constructed infrastructure</a>, phenomenal <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nm3IxEtzj7s">public spaces</a> and are clean and safe, in contrast to the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdvJSGc14xA">crumbling infrastructure</a> and <a href="https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting">dangerous streets</a> of some <a href="https://www.visualcapitalist.com/most-dangerous-cities-in-the-us/">American cities</a>. </p>
<p>By purchasing power parity, China’s GDP <a href="https://cepr.net/china-is-bigger-get-over-it/#:%7E:text=Measuring%20by%20purchasing%20power%20parity,Source%3A%20International%20Monetary%20Fund.">is currently 25 per cent bigger than that of the U.S.; the International Monetary Fund estimates it will be 40 per cent larger by 2028</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/china-worlds-sole-manufacturing-superpower-line-sketch-rise#:%7E:text=China%20is%20now%20the%20world's%20sole%20manufacturing%20giant.,the%20G7%20countries%20still%20dominate.">China is responsible for 35 per cent of the world’s manufacturing compared to 12 per cent for the U.S</a>. China’s <a href="https://yogesh-upadhyaya.medium.com/how-did-china-become-a-manufacturing-superpower-7322c3058d8">economies of scale</a> and <a href="https://fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/research/blog/how-china-is-winning-the-race-for-clean-energy-technology%EF%BF%BC/">technological advancements</a> mean that renewable energy may become <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/chinas-spending-on-green-energy-is-causing-a-global-glut-d80eaea7">affordable to billions of people all over the world</a>, <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2023/11/21/chinas-electric-vehicle-surge-will-shock-global-markets/">offering viable climate action</a>. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-does-so-much-of-the-worlds-manufacturing-still-take-place-in-china-207178">Why does so much of the world's manufacturing still take place in China?</a>
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<p>If China really does fail — something those western commentators perpetually claim is imminent — it would have serious consequences for the rest of the world.</p>
<p>Western hostility towards China reflects the grudging realization that the West may not be the pinnacle of achievement after all. Rather than possibly learning from China’s successes, westerners have chosen resentment borne of a sense of frustrated superiority.</p>
<p>The modern world is a pluralist global system. Different states will follow different paths to development and experiment with different forms of government. The West does not have all — or maybe any — solutions to the many problems the world is currently facing.</p>
<p><a href="https://hbr.org/2021/05/what-the-west-gets-wrong-about-china">China is pursuing</a> its own economic and social goals. These may not accord with western models, and <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/China-bumpy-path-Eswar-Prasad">China may stumble</a> as it follows its own path. </p>
<p>But cheering on those stumbles won’t make for a more peaceful or co-operative world, nor will it compensate for western failures.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/221919/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Shaun Narine is a contributor to Jewish Voice for Peace and Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East.</span></em></p>Western hostility towards China reflects the grudging realization that the West may not be the pinnacle of achievement after all.Shaun Narine, Professor of International Relations and Political Science, St. Thomas University (Canada)Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2228312024-02-21T13:18:19Z2024-02-21T13:18:19ZMaking it personal: Considering an issue’s relevance to your own life could help reduce political polarization<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576054/original/file-20240215-28-zbjze5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C7%2C1720%2C1732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thinking about issues’ impact on their own lives can help people envision more common ground.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/polarization-in-the-united-states-royalty-free-image/1436162554?phrase=political+polarization&adppopup=true">wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Political polarization can be reduced when people are told to think about the personal relevance of issues they might not care about at first glance.</p>
<p>We, <a href="https://www.hamilton.edu/academics/our-faculty/directory/faculty-detail/Rebecca-Dyer">a social psychologist</a> and <a href="https://www.hamilton.edu/academics/our-faculty/directory/faculty-detail/keelah-williams">an evolutionary psychologist</a>, decided to investigate this issue with two of our undergraduate students, and recently published <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0296177">our results</a> in the science journal PLOS One.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015141">Previous research</a> has found that conservatives tend to judge “disrespecting an elder” to be more morally objectionable behavior than liberals do. But when we had liberals think about how “disrespecting an elder” could be personally relevant to them – for example, someone being mean to their own grandmother – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0296177">their immorality assessments increased</a>, becoming no different than conservatives’.</p>
<p>When people consider how an issue relates to them personally, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/pac0000567">an otherwise neutral event seems more threatening</a>. This, in turn, increases someone’s perception of how morally objectionable that behavior is.</p>
<p>The pattern was different with conservative participants, however. When conservatives considered the personal relevance of what is typically considered a more “liberal” issue – a company lying about how much it is contributing to pollution – their judgments of how immoral that issue is did not significantly change. </p>
<p>Contrary to what we expected, both conservatives and liberals cared relatively equally about this threat even without thinking about its personal relevance. While some people did focus on the environmental aspect of the threat, as we intended, others focused more on the deception involved, which is less politically polarized. </p>
<p>All participants, no matter their politics, consistently rated more personally relevant threats as more immoral. The closer any threat feels, the bigger – and more wrong – someone considers it to be.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>In the United States today, it can feel like conservatives and liberals are <a href="https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/political-divide-america-beyond-polarization-tribalism-secularism">living in different realities</a>. Our research speaks to a possible pathway for narrowing this gap. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576815/original/file-20240220-22-4q8cod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two rows of seated people, seen from the back, listen to four people speaking as they face the audience." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576815/original/file-20240220-22-4q8cod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/576815/original/file-20240220-22-4q8cod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576815/original/file-20240220-22-4q8cod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576815/original/file-20240220-22-4q8cod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576815/original/file-20240220-22-4q8cod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576815/original/file-20240220-22-4q8cod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/576815/original/file-20240220-22-4q8cod.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Thinking about issues as closer to your own life – happening sooner, nearer or to people you care about – can change how you view them.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/rear-view-photo-of-audience-listening-to-panel-royalty-free-image/1179025358?phrase=%22town+hall%22+meeting&adppopup=true">SDI Productions/E+ via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>People often think of moral beliefs as relatively fixed and stable: Moral values feel ingrained in who you are. Yet our study suggests that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0296177">moral beliefs may be more flexible</a> than once thought, at least under certain circumstances. </p>
<p>To the extent that people can appreciate how important issues – like climate change – could affect them personally, that may lead to greater agreement from people across the political spectrum.</p>
<p>From a broader perspective, personal relevance is just one dimension of something called “<a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0018963">psychological distance</a>.” People may perceive objects or events as close to or far away from their lives in a variety of ways: for example, whether an event occurred recently or a long time ago, and whether it is real or hypothetical.</p>
<p>Our research suggests that psychological distance could be an important variable to consider in all kinds of decision-making, including financial decisions, deciding where to go to college or what job to take. Thinking more abstractly or concretely about what is at stake might lead people to different conclusions and improve the quality of their decisions.</p>
<h2>What still isn’t known</h2>
<p>Several important questions remain. One relates to the differing pattern that we observed with conservative participants, whose assessments of a stereotypically “liberal” threat did not change much when they considered its relevance to their own lives. Would a different threat – maybe gun violence or mounting student loan debt – lead to a different pattern? Alternatively, perhaps conservatives tend to be more rigid in their beliefs than liberals, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/pspp0000446">as some studies have suggested</a>.</p>
<p>In addition, how might these findings contribute to actual problem-solving? Is increasing the personal relevance of otherwise-neutral threats the best way to help people see eye to eye?</p>
<p>Another possibility might be to push things in the opposite direction. Making potential threats seem less personally relevant, not more, might be an effective way to bring people together to work toward a realistic solution.</p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222831/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Changing the ‘psychological distance’ someone feels toward an issue can shift their attitudes in ways that might help people on opposite sides of an issue see more eye to eye.Rebecca Dyer, Visiting Assistant Professor of Psychology, Hamilton CollegeKeelah Williams, Associate Professor of Psychology, Hamilton CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223492024-02-07T13:13:04Z2024-02-07T13:13:04ZCould flag football one day leapfrog tackle football in popularity?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573480/original/file-20240205-21-8bd16d.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=12%2C6%2C2032%2C1355&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Youth flag football players run drills with their coach before a game in Dayton, Ohio, on Oct. 8, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/flag-football-team-beavercreek-raiders-run-drills-with-news-photo/1850858257?adppopup=true">Megan Jelinger/The Washington Post via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>One hundred years into the future, what if millions of people gathered every February, not to watch the Super Bowl, but to instead watch the annual world flag football championship?</p>
<p>Once a casual activity played at family reunions, the competitive sport of flag football is “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2023/10/22/flag-football-why-sport-is-becoming-so-popular-with-girls-kids/71270522007/">soaring</a>,” “<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/17/sport/flag-football-nfl-olympics-cec/index.html">exploding</a>” and “<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flag-football-popularity-girls-women/">skyrocketing in popularity nationwide</a>,” according to mainstream news outlets.</p>
<p>There’s some data behind the breathless headlines: According to the <a href="https://nflflag.com/about">NFL’s official flag football program</a>, since 2015 the number of kids ages 6 to 12 who play flag football has risen by 38%, to more than 1.5 million.</p>
<p>In my recent book, “<a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-76457-9">Emerging Sports as Social Movements</a>,” I explore nontraditional sports like flag football and disc golf. One of my key findings is that splashy headlines about trendy sports rarely capture a sport’s true reach and staying power. </p>
<p>For every sport like pickleball that gains widespread, sustained popularity, there are several – <a href="https://www.usara.com/new-to-adventure-racing/whatisadventureracing">adventure racing</a>, paintball and wakeboarding – that remain firmly ensconced in their niche.</p>
<p>In the case of flag football, there are a handful of recent trends that truly do point to a promising future. But there are also some red flags that could end up hampering its growth.</p>
<h2>A fun, fast, safer alternative</h2>
<p>Though its rules are similar to tackle football, flag football is currently gaining attention for what makes it different. </p>
<p>It’s considered a no-contact sport. A “tackle” involves snatching one of two flags that hang from the hips of the ball carrier. While players face injury risks, they sustain <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/traumaticbraininjury/pubs/youth_football_head_impacts.html">far fewer head impacts</a> than athletes who play tackle football.</p>
<p>With the public’s concerns about brain injuries <a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-01-24/youth-football-participation-declining-amid-safety-concerns">on the rise</a>, many parents are opting for flag football instead of tackle for their kids.</p>
<p>Obscurity is a powerful barrier to emerging sports. But getting noticed may not be a problem for flag football.</p>
<p>The International Olympic Committee <a href="https://www.nfl.com/partners/flag-football/">announced in October 2023</a> that flag football would be headed to the Summer Games in Los Angeles in 2028. It’s not clear yet if active NFL players can compete, but if they are eligible – and if the U.S. assembles a “<a href="https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/dream-team-roster-history-usa-1992-olympics/4o78v2slilky1inrskk8h6wkb">Dream Team</a>” like the Olympic men’s basketball team of 1992 that included superstars Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and Magic Johnson – flag football could get on the radar of millions of casual sports fans in 2028.</p>
<p>The Olympic version of flag football is fast-paced.</p>
<p>Games are shorter than a typical game of tackle football. Five players compete on 50-yard fields with 10-yard end zones for two 20-minute halves. This format made its first big appearance in the <a href="https://olympics.com/en/news/flag-football-rules-players-origins-things-to-know">2022 World Games</a> in Birmingham, Alabama, where the U.S. men won gold and the women took home silver.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6SwoD74l-wQ?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">A short overview of how to play flag football.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The NFL cultivates the grassroots</h2>
<p>Although it may come as a surprise, the NFL is embracing flag football and taking its growth seriously.</p>
<p>In 2021, the NFL and Nike committed <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/nfl-and-nike-court-a-new-football-market-girls-11612854854">US$5 million in equipment</a> to support high school flag football teams across the nation. The NFL’s <a href="https://playfootball.nfl.com/about-youth-football/find-a-league/">official flag football program</a> operates more than 1,600 local leagues and receives sponsorships from top brands like Visa, Gatorade and Subway.</p>
<p>Most NFL teams are currently supporting the grassroots of flag football with summer camps, clinics and regional tournaments.</p>
<p>During last year’s Super Bowl, an estimated 115 million viewers watched <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/videos/sports/Ad-Meter/2023/02/13/ad-meter-2023-nfl-run/11245547002/">a flag football TV commercial</a> featuring Mexican quarterback Diana Flores bobbing and spinning to evade NFL players and celebrities as they attempted to take her flag. </p>
<p>On Feb. 4, 2024, the Pro Bowl – the NFL’s annual all-star game – sidelined tackle football for the second year in a row. In its place was a 7-on-7 flag football game that aired on ESPN and ABC and streamed on ESPN+.</p>
<p>Prior to that game, on Feb. 2-3, the league also hosted the <a href="https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-hosts-12-international-youth-flag-football-teams-at-2024-pro-bowl-games">International NFL Flag Championships</a> as part of the Pro Bowl Games, featuring young athletes from 12 countries.</p>
<h2>By the numbers</h2>
<p>Flag football may be having a moment, but the question remains: Is the sport actually experiencing a meaningful surge in participation that could extend into the future?</p>
<p>According to figures collected annually by the <a href="https://www.nfhs.org/">National Federation of High Schools</a>, 21,980 students played high school flag football in 2023. To put this number in context, however, tackle football attracted 47 times more students – roughly 1 million players – the same year. Track and field, basketball and soccer have roughly 1 million participants apiece.</p>
<p>Interest in flag football seems to be concentrated in a few regions, with roughly <a href="https://www.nfhs.org/">80% of high school players</a> living in just three states: Florida, Georgia and New York.</p>
<p>Though high school participation in flag football has <a href="https://www.nfhs.org/">increased steadily</a> since 2007, almost all the growth comes from the girls’ side.</p>
<p><iframe id="D5FkA" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/D5FkA/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>A nationwide <a href="https://sportsmarketanalytics.com/home.aspx">sports participation survey</a> finds that the number of casual players of flag football is up, but core participation is down. The study defines “casual players” as those who play fewer than 50 times per year, whereas “core players” participate 50 or more times each year.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://sportsmarketanalytics.com/home.aspx">share of Americans</a> who play casually increased by 41% between 2016 and 2022. But core participation declined by 13% during this period.</p>
<p><iframe id="0oquc" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0oquc/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>For sustainable growth, nontraditional sports need to generate excitement among both core and casual players. Top-down investments and marketing strategies may attract new players, but grassroots organizing keeps them coming back.</p>
<p>Take pickleball. In recent years, the sport has generated plenty of cultural clout, with high-profile athletes like LeBron James investing in the professional circuit, and <a href="https://www.paddletek.com/blogs/news/celebrities-in-pickleball">celebrity pickleball players</a> making headlines. There has also been <a href="https://theconversation.com/pickleballs-uphill-climb-to-mainstream-success-193052">tremendous growth</a> in pickleball’s social and physical infrastructure. For these reasons, both casual and core participation in pickleball <a href="https://sportsmarketanalytics.com/home.aspx">more than doubled</a> between 2016 and 2022.</p>
<h2>Red sport, blue sport</h2>
<p>In the end, the future of flag football may hinge on the public debate over tackle football’s safety. Over the past decade, <a href="https://theconversation.com/childrens-high-impact-sports-can-be-abuse-experts-explain-why-222651">several studies</a> have found a link between repeated head impacts and the risk for serious brain injuries, <a href="https://www.bu.edu/cte/our-research/significant-research-findings/">including chronic traumatic encephalopathy</a>, or CTE.</p>
<p>Yet <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/california-youth-tackle-football-ban-clears-first-legislative-hurdle-assembly-committee-ab734/">recent efforts</a> to make tackle football safer for young athletes have been met with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1353/jsm.2019.0002">fierce resistance</a> from families, fans and organizers. In many regions of the U.S., tackle football is deeply ingrained in the culture, leading to strong opposition to any changes.</p>
<p>New rules to protect NFL players have seeped into mainstream politics. For instance, in 2019, former <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobcook/2019/02/03/donald-trump-who-wants-more-violence-in-the-nfl-doesnt-want-his-son-playing-football/?sh=5ffeb68a342a">President Donald Trump</a> dubbed the NFL’s concussion protocol “soft” and said that safety measures were “ruining the game.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Democratic state lawmakers in New York, Illinois and California have <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/governor-newsom-says-he-wont-sign-bill-banning-tackle-football-for-young-kids/">introduced bills to ban tackle football for kids under 12</a>, often citing flag football as a suitable alternative. None of these bills, however, have passed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Two teenaged girls fight for a ball." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573483/original/file-20240205-27-v9xcvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573483/original/file-20240205-27-v9xcvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573483/original/file-20240205-27-v9xcvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573483/original/file-20240205-27-v9xcvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=440&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573483/original/file-20240205-27-v9xcvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573483/original/file-20240205-27-v9xcvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573483/original/file-20240205-27-v9xcvh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=553&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flag football has become more popular among girls and women.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/long-beach-ca-lilianna-sarmiento-of-jordan-reaches-for-a-news-photo/1743556245?adppopup=true">Keith Birmingham/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Some research shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19406940.2018.1524784">Democrats are more likely to trust concussion science than Republicans</a>. Democrats also <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fspor.2021.655890">pay more attention to news about concussions</a> than Republicans. </p>
<p>As beliefs about the dangers of tackle football become polarized, the perceived benefits of flag football will likely follow suit. As I showed in a recent study of sport popularity in 207 areas of the U.S., <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/19406940.2022.2074516">flag football is more popular in regions that tend to vote Democratic</a>, with tackle football more popular in Republican areas.</p>
<p>So in addition to going after the resources needed for sustainable growth – investment, organization, visibility, legitimacy – flag football’s advocates will also need to navigate a nation divided by politics.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222349/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Josh Woods does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The NFL’s embrace of the sport points to a promising future. But gender and political divides could stand in the way.Josh Woods, Professor of Sociology, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2223542024-02-06T13:31:04Z2024-02-06T13:31:04ZSupreme Court heads into uncharted, dangerous territory as it considers Trump insurrection case<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573195/original/file-20240203-27-tu4bta.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=38%2C12%2C8449%2C4758&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The U.S. Supreme Court.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/supreme-court-royalty-free-image/1500767786?phrase=U.S.+Supreme+court&adppopup=true">Larry Crain/iStock/Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Can Colorado disqualify former President Trump <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/2023/23-719">from the state’s primary ballot</a>? That’s the momentous question the U.S. Supreme Court will consider in <a href="https://www.scotusblog.com/2024/01/supreme-court-agrees-to-hear-trump-plea-to-remain-on-colorado-ballot/">Trump v. Anderson</a>, a case being argued before the justices on Feb. 8, 2024.</p>
<p>The case involves the justices wading into the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2023/12/20/insurrection-14th-amendment-history-trump/">unfamiliar waters</a> of the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. Legal experts on <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/29/politics/luttig-conway-supreme-court-trump-insurrection/index.html">both sides</a> of the <a href="https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-719/298014/20240118120731316_23-719%20Amicus%20Brief%20of%20U.S.%20Senator%20Ted%20Cruz.pdf">political aisle</a> filed amicus briefs to plead with the justices to either allow Trump to stay on the ballot or keep him off it. </p>
<p>As scholars who <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/709913">study</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/0098261X.2022.2124897">how the federal judiciary</a> is changing, we believe that Trump’s unprecedented relationship with the judiciary makes this case important in ways that go beyond the legality of his ballot removal. One dark shadow hanging over this case is that the justices’ decision could affect the court’s legitimacy, too.</p>
<p>Public support for the court and its overall legitimacy are already at <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/07/21/favorable-views-of-supreme-court-fall-to-historic-low/">all-time lows</a>. Part of this results from the current polarization of the electorate. That polarization has led people to shift their support for the court <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912920950482">based on their perceptions of the court’s partisan leanings</a>. Trump’s efforts to politicize the court may also contribute to these negative feelings.</p>
<p>The justices have done many things to hurt the court’s legitimacy, too, from <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4206986">upending the legal status quo</a> on issues such as abortion to <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2023/10/31/senate-democrats-plan-to-supoena-gop-megadonors-over-reported-undisclosed-gifts-to-supreme-court-justices/?sh=1655532712b5">accepting money and luxury vacations from people whose interests have appeared in cases before the court</a>. </p>
<p>No matter how hard the justices <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-immigration-c4b34f9639e141069c08cf1e3deb6b84">work to head off</a> negative perceptions of the court, they have been unsuccessful at restoring their institution’s legitimacy.</p>
<p>And now, against this backdrop of vitriol and low support, the court must answer a question that has never been asked: Does Section 3 of the 14th Amendment mean Colorado can keep Trump off the ballot? </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a blue blazer, blue striped tie and white shirt in front of an American flag." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/573197/original/file-20240203-15-vw1wpn.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Donald Trump’s eligibility to be on state ballots as a presidential candidate is being considered by the U.S. Supreme Court.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/republican-presidential-candidate-and-former-u-s-president-news-photo/1965961432?adppopup=true">David Becker/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘My judges’</h2>
<p>Trump’s relationship with the federal judiciary – both the judges who serve in the federal judiciary and the broader legal institution itself – differs from that of his predecessors. He talks about the court system not as an independent branch of government but as a political institution whose positions <a href="https://time.com/4266700/donald-trump-supreme-court-nominations/">should align</a> with his own. </p>
<p>In his Jan. 6, 2021, speech before the attack on the U.S. Capitol, Trump sounded miffed at the three justices he had nominated to the Supreme Court. They were ruling against him now, he said, perhaps to counter the perception that <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/21/us/politics/trump-supreme-court.html">“they’re my puppets.”</a> </p>
<p>Modern presidents have always sought to mold the judiciary by selecting <a href="https://www.upress.virginia.edu/title/3596/">justices whose records</a> align with the nominating president’s <a href="https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300080735/picking-federal-judges/">political preferences</a>. But historically, presidents were careful to discuss the courts in <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/curbing-the-court/97B607067A2E7392C2223EF7E642FC7A">legalistic terms</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2508.00207">avoid politicizing the judiciary</a>.</p>
<p>Trump flouted those norms. In an unusual move, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/19/us/politics/donald-trump-supreme-court-nominees.html">he released a list</a> of potential Supreme Court nominees while campaigning for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination, touting the <a href="https://time.com/4266700/donald-trump-supreme-court-nominations/">conservative credentials</a> of the names on his list. </p>
<p>Once elected, he asked <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X221109534">members of the Federalist Society</a>, a group dedicated to putting conservative judges on the bench, to help him select nominees, including the three justices he eventually put on the Supreme Court.</p>
<p>Once the Senate confirmed his nominees to the Supreme Court, Trump referred to Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett as <a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/nine-black-robes-joan-biskupic?variant=40723951517730">“my” judges</a>. </p>
<p>And as his legal cases have made their way through the courts, he suggested that judges he nominated at any level – district, circuit or for the Supreme Court – owed him favorable rulings because he gave them their seats. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/05/2-key-points-trumps-lawyer-suggesting-justice-kavanaugh-owes-trump/">One of Trump’s lawyers in the Colorado ballot case</a> now before the Supreme Court suggested in January 2023 that “people like Kavanaugh who the president fought for, who the president went through hell to get into place, he’ll step up.”</p>
<p>And Trump has questioned the credentials of most judges who have ruled against him, whether it’s in response to cases <a href="https://apnews.com/article/north-america-donald-trump-us-news-ap-top-news-immigration-c4b34f9639e141069c08cf1e3deb6b84">involving his presidential policies</a> or those involving his <a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/111848593080388710">personal conduct</a>, especially when Democrats nominated those judges. When judges have refused to bend to his will, Trump has pushed back, <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/his-own-words-presidents-attacks-courts">lambasting the judges</a> as biased and saying they were <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1065581119242940416">“out of control”</a> and the court system was <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/951094078661414912">“broken and unfair.”</a> He used social media to call the federal judge presiding over his Jan. 6 prosecution a <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/judge-reinstates-trump-gag-order-jan-6-case/story?id=104466343">“TRUE TRUMP HATER.”</a> </p>
<h2>Increased criticism, decreased legitimacy</h2>
<p>Framing the Supreme Court as a political institution beholden to the president diminishes the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211064299">court’s legitimacy in the eyes of the public</a>. Research shows that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912917750278">people’s support for the court decreases</a> when a politician they like criticizes it. </p>
<p>Some people also struggle to believe that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12599">judges who do not look or think like them</a> are neutral arbiters of the law, so Trump’s comments potentially inflame those beliefs and increase people’s wariness of the judiciary. </p>
<p>Beyond that, Trump constantly tries to make the point that the entire judicial nominating process is political, from identifying judges by which president nominated them – for example, an <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/21/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-calls-out-trump-for-his-attack-on-a-judge-1011203%22%22">“Obama judge”</a> or a <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-judges-lawsuits_n_5db1d70ee4b03285e87ba2fd%22%22">“Trump judge”</a> – to his leaning on the justices he put on the court. This has the broader effect of framing the Supreme Court as a political rather than legal institution. And that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00616.x">dramatically decreases its legitimacy</a>. </p>
<p>Put simply, people support the court less when politicians attack it, and Trump frequently attacks the judiciary. </p>
<h2>Maintaining authority</h2>
<p>Why care about legitimacy? </p>
<p>Because <a href="https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed78.asp">unlike the president or members of Congress</a>, who can enforce their own laws and policies – as long as they abide by the Constitution – the Supreme Court depends on other institutions for enforcement of its opinions. The court lacks the literal force or money to enforce its decisions.</p>
<p>Consider the Supreme Court’s famous 1954 ruling in <a href="https://www.oyez.org/cases/1940-1955/347us483">Brown v. Board of Education</a>, which ordered the end of school segregation. That ruling did not get enforced in most of the South <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12069">until the president and Congress passed laws</a> that punished schools that refused to integrate.</p>
<p>Those institutions enforce Supreme Court decisions only because the public believes the court is a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5907.00025">legitimate legal institution</a> with the authority to make decisions about the law and get them enforced. </p>
<p>This belief in judicial authority stems from several different sources, including <a href="https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9781400830602/html">elementary education</a> on democratic values, the justices’ <a href="https://press.umich.edu/Books/T/The-Limits-of-Legitimacy2">concerted efforts</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912918801563">to avoid</a> all but the most favorable media attention, their focus on showing <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2012.00616.x">the principled nature</a> of their decision-making process, their aim to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/jlc.2023.15">mitigate negative public sentiment</a> and even their decision to separate themselves by <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/lasr.12104">wearing robes to political events</a>. </p>
<p>To be sure, people are not naive about the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-214229">political nature of Supreme Court decision-making</a>. But as long as the justices’ decision-making appears principled, research has found that the court <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5893.2011.00432.x">remains legitimate</a> to the public, even if the court issues a <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-110413-030546">decision the public dislikes</a>.</p>
<p>Typically, the justices <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691136332/the-politics-of-precedent-on-the-us-supreme-court">lean on precedent</a> to defend their rulings, but the justices cannot do so in the Trump Colorado ballot case. <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/4435677-the-supreme-court-cant-punt-on-trumps-disqualification-without-threatening-the-constitution/">No precedent exists</a>. </p>
<p>Combined with the court’s low popular support, moving into uncharted legal territory means the justices face, for the first time in a while, the possibility that people <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/09/26/1200906844/supreme-court-alabama-voting-case">might defy</a> or <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/border-standoff-between-texas-feds-intensifies-as-governor-defies-supreme-court-ruling">ignore their rulings</a>. In fact, Sen. J.D. Vance, a Republican from Ohio, suggested in a recent interview that the <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6346242779112">president could defy the Supreme Court</a>. </p>
<p>Consequently, while the justices’ decision will be important for constitutional and democratic reasons, the public’s response to the ruling will be just as important for democracy and the rule of law in the U.S.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/222354/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With their upcoming decision concerning whether Donald Trump can appear on the Colorado ballot, Supreme Court justices face the possibility that the ruling could be ignored or defied by the public.Jessica A. Schoenherr, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of South CarolinaJonathan M. King, Assistant Professor of Political Science, West Virginia UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2200022024-02-01T13:32:05Z2024-02-01T13:32:05ZRepublicans and Democrats consider each other immoral – even when treated fairly and kindly by the opposition<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/572531/original/file-20240131-17-40gn6h.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=616%2C0%2C6139%2C3585&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">How a political opponent acted didn't change participants' harsh moral judgments.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/divided-americans-royalty-free-image/1406665425">wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Both Republicans and Democrats <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506231194279">regarded people with opposing political views as less moral</a> than people in their own party, even when their political opposites acted fairly or kindly toward them, according to experiments <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=0Ji_hfUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">my</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pEGM4-gAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">colleagues</a> <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andrew-Heim">and</a> <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=Xo5zopoAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">I</a> recently conducted. Even participants who self-identified as only moderately conservative or liberal made the same harsh moral judgments about those on the other side of the political divide.</p>
<p>Psychology researcher Eli Finkel and his colleagues have suggested that moral judgment <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe1715">plays a major role in political polarization</a> in the United States. My research team wondered if acts demonstrating good moral character could counteract partisan animosity. In other words, would you think more highly of someone who treated you well – regardless of their political leanings?</p>
<p>We decided to conduct an experiment based on game theory and turned to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(82)90011-7">the Ultimatum Game</a>, which researchers developed to study the role of fairness in cooperation. Psychology researcher Hanah Chapman and her colleagues have demonstrated that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1165565">unfairness in the Ultimatum Game elicits moral disgust</a>, making it a good tool for us to use to study moral judgment in real time.</p>
<p>The Ultimatum Game allowed us to experimentally manipulate whether partisans were treated unfairly, fairly or even kindly by political opponents. Participants had no knowledge about the person they were playing with beyond party affiliation and how they played the game.</p>
<p><iframe id="NH8PX" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NH8PX/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>In our experiments, even after fair or kind treatment, participants still rated political opponents as less moral. Moreover, this was true even for participants who didn’t consider themselves to have strong political bias.</p>
<p>Other psychology studies suggest that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.129.3.339">conservatives are more politically extreme</a>, being more likely to adopt right-wing authoritarianism and more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550611429024">sensitive to moral disgust</a>. However, in our experiments, we found no differences in party animosity and moral judgment between liberals and conservatives, suggesting political polarization is a bipartisan phenomenon.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>Our experiments illustrate the magnitude of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.001">current political polarization in the United States</a>, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/political-polarization-in-the-american-public/">which has been increasing</a> for at least the last four decades.</p>
<p>Americans with different political opinions <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abe1715">could once cooperate and maintain friendships</a> with one another. But as political attitudes begin to coincide with moral convictions, partisans increasingly view each other as immoral.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I are particularly interested in this topic, as we worry about the potential for political polarization based on moral convictions to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-4560.1990.tb00271.x">descend into political violence</a>.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>My colleagues and I believe that a controlled scientific approach, rather than speculation, could help find ways to mitigate political polarization. Currently, we are running experiments to explore how online interaction – for example, through social media – can foster psychological distance between partisans. We’re also investigating how emotions such as disgust can contribute to the moral component of partisan animosity, and how the evolutionary origins of morality may play a psychological role in political polarization.</p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/220002/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Phillip McGarry does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>With growing polarization, political attitudes have begun to coincide with moral convictions. Partisans increasingly view each other as immoral. New research reveals the depth of that conviction.Phillip McGarry, Ph.D. Candidate in Experimental Psychology, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2186882024-01-23T13:27:47Z2024-01-23T13:27:47Z‘Collective mind’ bridges societal divides − psychology research explores how watching the same thing can bring people together<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/563370/original/file-20231204-29-j6e4zx.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=219%2C18%2C3968%2C2763&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Paying attention to the same thing strengthens bonds between observers.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Audience-828584.jpg">Carlos David Gomez/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/508169/historically-low-faith-institutions-continues.aspx">Only about 1 in 4 Americans</a> said that they had trust in the nation’s institutions in 2023 – with big business (1 in 7), television news (1 in 7) and Congress (1 in 12) scraping the very bottom.</p>
<p>While institutional trust is decreasing, political polarization is increasing. The majority of Republicans (72%) and Democrats (64%) think of each other as more immoral than other Americans – <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2022/08/09/as-partisan-hostility-grows-signs-of-frustration-with-the-two-party-system/">a nearly 30% rise from 2016 to 2022</a>. When compared with similar democracies, the United States has exhibited the <a href="https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26669/w26669.pdf">largest increase in animus</a> toward the opposing political party over the past 40 years. </p>
<p>When public trust and political consensus disappear, what remains? This <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=pEGM4-gAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">question has occupied my research</a> for the past 20 years, both as a scholar trained in social anthropology, organizational science and social cognition and as a professor of psychology.</p>
<p>Researchers don’t have all the answers, but it seems that even in the absence of public trust and agreement, people can share experiences. Whether watching a spelling bee or a football game, “we” still exist if “we” can witness it together.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I call this human capacity to take a collective perspective <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2023.06.009">theory of collective mind</a>. The foundation of collective mind, and what we study in the lab, is shared attention, instances when people experience the world with others.</p>
<h2>Shared attention amplifies experiences</h2>
<p>Experiments in the laboratory with adults show that shared experiences amplify psychological and behavioral reactions to the world.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I find that compared with attending to the world alone, or at different times than others, synchronous attention with others yields <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615589104">stronger memories, deeper emotions and firmer motivations</a>. Studies show that seeing words together <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0019573">renders them more memorable</a>, watching sad movies together <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/a0037697">makes them sadder</a>, and focusing together on shared goals <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2011.04.012">increases efforts toward their pursuit</a>. Sharing attention to the behavior of others <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550613479807">yields more imitation of that behavior</a>. </p>
<p>Critically, those experiencing something with you need not be physically present. Although in some experiments participants sit side by side, in other studies participants believe they are attending together from different lab rooms or even across the nation. Irrespective of the location, the sense that “we are attending” to something together at the same time – as compared with in solitude or on your own schedule – amplifies the experience. </p>
<p>Laboratories in the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614551162">United States</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-017-3049-9">Australia</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/17470218.2015.1120332">Hungary</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.01697">Germany</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1162/jocn_a_01841">Denmark</a> have found similar results. Notably, some studies have found that people want to have more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0215318">shared experiences</a>, even when they don’t actually enjoy them more than solitary experiences.</p>
<p>What’s behind these observations? As a social species that survives through joint action, human beings in general need a common baseline from which to act. When shared experiences amplify what we know together, it can guide subsequent behavior, rendering that behavior more understandable and useful to the collective.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570644/original/file-20240122-15-stpwdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="people with refreshments walking into a dim movie theater" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570644/original/file-20240122-15-stpwdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570644/original/file-20240122-15-stpwdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570644/original/file-20240122-15-stpwdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570644/original/file-20240122-15-stpwdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570644/original/file-20240122-15-stpwdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570644/original/file-20240122-15-stpwdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570644/original/file-20240122-15-stpwdh.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Whether you came together or just happened to attend the same screening, a shared experience like watching a movie can help you sense a shared mind.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/low-angle-view-of-smiling-spectators-walking-cinema-royalty-free-image/1146819268">Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Sharing attention builds relationships</h2>
<p>Shared attention happens within the bounds of our cherished relationships and groups, like when friends go to a movie together, but also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/10888683211065921">outside of them</a>.</p>
<p>Research suggests that shared attention on a common subjective experience can build <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/jasp.12867">relationships across the political divide</a> and strengthen <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00224545.2015.1038496">cooperation among strangers</a>. For instance, when people co-witness that they have the same gut reaction to an unfamiliar piece of music or a meaningless inkblot, they like each other more, even if they have opposing political leanings. Critically, relational benefits are more likely when such subjective experiences are shared simultaneously – instances when people are most likely to sense <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000200">a shared mind</a>.</p>
<p>People can be attending next to one another or thousands of miles apart, in groups of two or 200, and the results are the same – shared attention <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000065">amplifies experiences</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jesp.2017.11.007">creates social bonds</a> and even <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-41960-2">synchronizes individuals’ heartbeats and breaths</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/infa.12515">Scientists studying kids</a> find that interest in attending with others begins in the first year of human life, predating the development of language and preceding any notion of shared beliefs by several years. Human relationships don’t begin with sharing values; sharing attention comes first.</p>
<h2>The role of shared attention in society</h2>
<p>Before the advent of the internet, Americans shared attention broadly – they watched the same nightly news together, even if they did not always agree whether it was good or bad. Today, with people’s attention divided into media silos, there are more obstacles than ever to sharing attention with those with whom you disagree.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570645/original/file-20240122-17-6fwxd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="hand holding remote points at TV with many blurry app icons" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570645/original/file-20240122-17-6fwxd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/570645/original/file-20240122-17-6fwxd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570645/original/file-20240122-17-6fwxd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570645/original/file-20240122-17-6fwxd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570645/original/file-20240122-17-6fwxd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570645/original/file-20240122-17-6fwxd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/570645/original/file-20240122-17-6fwxd9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">How siloed is the media diet you consume?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/remote-control-with-smart-tv-royalty-free-image/1146810697">MariuszBlach/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>And yet, even when we can no longer agree on what “we” believe, sharing attention to the basic sights and sounds of our world connects us. These moments can be relatively small, like watching a movie in the theater, or large, like watching the Super Bowl. However, remembering that we are sharing such experiences with Americans of all political persuasions is important.</p>
<p>Consider the Federal Communications Commission’s <a href="https://www.britannica.com/topic/Fairness-Doctrine">fairness doctrine</a>, a policy that controversial issues of public importance should receive balanced coverage, exposing audiences to differing views. In effect, it created episodes of shared attention across social, political and economic differences. </p>
<p>Institutional trust is now <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/508169/historically-low-faith-institutions-continues.aspx">almost twofold lower than it was in 1987</a>, the year the fairness doctrine was repealed. It is possible that the end of the fairness doctrine <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/01/17/how-policy-decisions-spawned-todays-hyperpolarized-media/">helped create a hyperpolarized media</a>, where the norm is sharing attention with those who are ideologically similar. </p>
<p>Of course, sharing attention on divisive issues can be painful. Yet, I believe it may also push us beyond our national fracture and toward a revitalization of public trust.</p>
<p>Why? When we share awareness of the world with others, no matter how distinct our beliefs, we form a community of minds. We are no longer alone. If we are to restore public trust and national ideals, sharing attention across societal divides looks like a way forward.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/218688/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Garriy Shteynberg receives funding from National Science Foundation. </span></em></p>Even in a moment of extreme partisanship, ‘we’ still exist if ‘we’ can witness something together. Researchers are exploring how shared attention can build connection.Garriy Shteynberg, Associate Professor of Psychology, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2172522023-11-09T13:36:28Z2023-11-09T13:36:28ZWith government funding running out soon, expect more brinkmanship despite public dismay at political gridlock<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558474/original/file-20231108-27-e7mj5f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C26%2C4391%2C4114&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">When Democrats and Republicans fight, do Americans win?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/government-fight-royalty-free-image/1094058960">wildpixel/iStock / Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Much of the news coverage of the discussions and negotiations <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/11/07/congress-shutdown-house-gop-plan/">aimed at averting a government shutdown</a> on Nov. 17, 2023, relies on pundits and their unnamed sources, on leaks, speculation, wishful thinking and maybe even the reading of tea leaves. The Conversation tapped an expert on congressional behavior, Northwestern University political scientist <a href="https://sites.northwestern.edu/lharbridgeyong/">Laurel Harbridge-Yong</a>, and asked her what she sees when she looks at the prolonged trouble Congress has had over the past few years coming to agreement on the <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-look-use-debt-limit-tactics-funding-fight-rcna90876">debt ceiling and</a> <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/collision-course-government-funding-raises-fears-shutdown-rcna88849">spending to keep the government open</a>. Harbridge-Yong is a specialist in partisan conflict and the lack of bipartisan agreement in American politics, so her expertise is tailor-made for the moment.</em> </p>
<h2>What do the repeated and difficult debt limit and budget negotiations in Congress look like to you?</h2>
<p>The problems that Congress and the White House are having in reaching compromises highlight two aspects of contemporary politics. The first: Since the 1970s, both the House and Senate have <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">become much more polarized</a>. Members of the two parties are more unified internally and further apart from the opposing party. You don’t have the overlap between parties now that existed 50 years ago. </p>
<p>Even as the U.S. has experienced rising polarization, there are still <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/356174/democrats-big-political-tent-helps-explain-stalemate.aspx">important differences within the parties</a>. Not every Democrat is the same as another and not every Republican is the same. </p>
<p>This relates to a second point: Members’ individual and collective interests shape their behavior. For <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/05/06/republicans-debt-ceiling-mccarthy-freedom-caucus">Republicans in more competitive districts</a>, their own individual electoral interests probably say, “Let’s cut a deal. Let’s not risk a default on the debt or a government shutdown that the Republicans get blamed for, and which is going to run really poorly in my district.” </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man holding a leather folio and standing at microphones." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/558487/original/file-20231108-29-z58kr0.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, will have to keep his GOP caucus happy while making a deal with Democrats to pass government funding.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-mike-johnson-gives-a-brief-statement-news-photo/1746072258?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-house-hardliners-could-try-block-debt-ceiling-deal-without-robust-cuts-2023-05-18/">House Freedom Caucus Republicans</a> come from really safe districts, and they care more about their primary elections than they do their general elections. So their own electoral interests say, “Stand firm, fight till the bitter end, try to force the hand of the president.” </p>
<p>These kinds of electoral interests occur at the individual and collective levels for members of a party. Since the 1990s, there’s been <a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-072012-113747">a lot more competition for majority control</a>, and as a result the two parties don’t want to do something that gives the other party a win in the eyes of the voter. </p>
<p>So you now have many Republicans who are more willing to fight quite hard against the Democrats because they don’t want to give a win to Biden. This is most evident among the most conservative wing of the party, which has both individual and collective reasons to oppose a compromise. The far-right wing recently showed its power over the party, both through <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mccarthy-says-he-thinks-he-will-survive-leadership-challenge-us-house-2023-10-03/">ousting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy</a> – in large part for his willingness to broker deals and compromise with Democrats – and <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/25/politics/house-speaker-vote-republicans/index.html">influencing the selection of the new speaker, Mike Johnson</a>. </p>
<p>Johnson may be less willing to broker compromises with the Democrats <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-25/what-to-know-about-trump-backed-speaker-candidate-mike-johnson">because of his own preferences</a> and because he needs to <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/27/what-weve-learned-about-mike-johnson-so-far-00123924">maintain the support of the far-right members</a> in his party. Beyond the far-right wing of the party, other conservative Republicans might also believe that insisting on major spending cuts and concessions from the Democrats will boost the electoral fortunes of their party.</p>
<p>Democrats are also resistant to compromising, both because they <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/05/24/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-35/">don’t want to gut programs</a> that they put in place and also because they don’t want to make this look like a win for Republicans, who have been able to play chicken and get what they wanted. </p>
<p>These dynamics, layered on top of policy interests, all contribute to the problems that we’re seeing now. </p>
<h2>What has been the role of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/01/19/1149861784/debt-ceiling-brinksmanship">brinkmanship in these conflicts</a>?</h2>
<p>When I think of brinkmanship, I’m thinking about negotiating tactics that push things until the very last minute to try to secure the most concessions for your side. During the May 2023 version of these negotiations, that meant <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/05/24/debt-ceiling-gop-demands/">coming to the edge of potential default</a> on the debt. This fall, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/government-shutdown-deadline-09-30-23/index.html">Congress passed a short-term funding bill</a> with only hours to spare before the government shut down. Now, it faces the <a href="https://www.federaltimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2023/11/06/less-than-two-weeks-to-go-before-the-next-government-shutdown-deadline/">next deadline to fund the government by November 17</a>.</p>
<h2>Does brinkmanship work?</h2>
<p>I was looking back at some of the previous government <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-debt-ceiling-crises-and-the-political-chaos-theyve-unleashed-205178">shutdowns as well as debt ceiling negotiations</a>. In some instances, concessions by the other side were granted, so brinkmanship paid off. In other instances it was less obvious that there was a win, and in some instances there was perhaps a penalty, when the parties couldn’t agree and there was a government shutdown. </p>
<p>One party may be banking on the fact that the other party’s going to get blamed by the public while their own party reputation won’t be hurt. In the 1990s, it seemed as though it was the <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/voters-blamed-gop-for-1995-shutdown_n_842769">Republicans who took the brunt</a> of the blame for a government shutdown. </p>
<p>There have been instances in which parties get something out of brinkmanship, as in the government shutdown at the beginning of the Trump administration over <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/25/trump-shutdown-announcement-1125529">funding for the border wall</a>. The Democrats ended up giving some money for the border wall. It wasn’t all of what Trump wanted, but it was part of what Trump and the Republicans wanted.</p>
<p>Brinkmanship and gridlock are disproportionately consequential for Democrats, who generally <a href="https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/party-platform/">want to expand government programs</a>, versus for Republicans, who tend to want to <a href="https://prod-static.gop.com/media/Resolution_Platform.pdf?_gl=1*gor9yy*_gcl_au*MTY3NTEyMDk2NC4xNjgyNTE4Nzc1&_ga=2.185781033.1441572001.1685048771-688242051.1682518780">constrict government programs</a>. So gridlock or forced spending cuts are easier for Republicans to stomach than Democrats. It may be part of why we see Republicans, especially on the far right, going harder on this kind of brinkmanship. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C25%2C8575%2C5665&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men sitting in yellow armchairs in front of an elegant fireplace." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=51%2C25%2C8575%2C5665&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/528424/original/file-20230525-17-jqufsl.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Kevin McCarthy, then the House speaker, at left, meets with President Joe Biden to discuss the debt limit in the White House on May 22, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/BidenDebtLimit/6f1e6ced06ab4a0b81026f02e69825f6/photo?Query=debt%20limit&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=1596&currentItemNo=307">AP Photo/Alex Brandon</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>How does the public see brinkmanship?</h2>
<p>On the whole, I think the public doesn’t like it. </p>
<p>My own work has shown that the <a href="https://www.ipr.northwestern.edu/documents/policy-briefs/harbridge-policybrief-2020.pdf?linkId=84025998">public does not like gridlock</a> on issues in which people agree on the end goal. The public, on average, even prefers a victory for the other side over policy gridlock. </p>
<p>A win for their own side is the best outcome, a compromise is next best, a win for the other side is next best after that. Gridlock is the worst outcome. </p>
<p>The place where it gets a little bit more challenging is that how people understand and interpret politics is heavily <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.072805.103054">shaped by how politics is framed to them</a>. </p>
<p>Looking back at the debt ceiling negotiations: Conservative politicians and media spun the issue very much as a <a href="https://lucas.house.gov/posts/lucas-statement-on-house-gop-plan-addressing-debt-ceiling-applauds-passage-of-limit-save-grow-act">fiscal responsibility</a> question, saying it was just like a family’s personal budget at home or that it was really important to not just raise the debt limit without <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/26/us/politics/debt-limit-vote-republicans.html">spending concessions</a>. </p>
<p>Those on the Democratic side heard that the Republicans were <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5072354/congressional-democrats-accuse-republicans-holding-economy-hostage-debt-limit-talks">holding the country hostage</a>, that we can’t give in to them, <a href="https://democrats-appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/speaker-mccarthy-puts-nation-s-economy-at-risk">this will gut really important programs</a>, and so forth.</p>
<p>So on the one hand, the public doesn’t like gridlock – especially gridlock when the consequences are so bad, as default or a shutdown would be. On the other hand, voters in each party’s base hear the issues framed in very different ways. Both sides may <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/politics/debt-ceiling-crisis-democrats-gop">end up blaming the other side</a>. They’re not necessarily going to be calling their legislators and asking them to compromise.</p>
<h2>Democracy is about representation. As they conduct negotiations, do lawmakers see themselves as representing voters?</h2>
<p>Many conservative Republicans who hold firm in budget negotiations may believe that they are good representatives of what the base wants. In <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/rejecting-compromise/01F2DA900C72ACF02E1B3ECF4EED43D3">the recent book</a> that I wrote with Sarah Anderson and Daniel Butler, we found that legislators of both parties believe their primary voters want them to reject compromises. </p>
<p>But in today’s conflicts, those constituents may not really understand the consequences. Sometimes good representation doesn’t just mean doing what the public wants – legislators have better information or understanding of how things work and should do what’s in the best interests of their constituents.</p>
<p>However, even if individual members think they’re representing their constituents, representation at the aggregate level can be poor. </p>
<p>What the public as a whole – which tends to be more moderate – wants is compromise and resolution.</p>
<p><em>This story is an updated version of <a href="https://theconversation.com/voters-want-compromise-in-congress-so-why-the-brinkmanship-over-the-debt-ceiling-206465">a story originally published</a> on May 26, 2023.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/217252/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Laurel Harbridge-Yong receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the National Institute of Justice, Unite America, and the Social Science Research Council.</span></em></p>The deadline to fund the US government is fast approaching, and it will take a Congress seemingly addicted to brinkmanship to keep the government open.Laurel Harbridge-Yong, Associate Professor of Political Science, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2151082023-10-24T19:44:28Z2023-10-24T19:44:28ZEducated voters in Canada tend to vote for left-leaning parties while richer voters go right<p>It is hard to miss the increasing attention dedicated to transgender rights in contemporary politics. </p>
<p>In 2015, Justin Trudeau made <a href="https://www.washingtonblade.com/2015/10/20/pro-lgbt-trudeau-defeats-incumbent-canadian-prime-minister/">a quick reference</a> to including discrimination on the grounds of gender identity in the Canadian Human Rights Act, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-transgender-rights-1.3584482">implementing the change</a> after the 2015 election.</p>
<p>There wasn’t a significant political reaction to the trend, however, until this summer when three Conservative provincial governments — in <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick-trans-lgbtq-higgs-1.6889957">New Brunswick</a>, <a href="https://www.saskatchewan.ca/government/news-and-media/2023/august/22/education-minister-announces-new-parental-inclusion-and-consent-policies">Saskatchewan</a> and <a href="https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/parents-must-be-fully-involved-in-student-s-decision-to-change-pronouns-ontario-education-minister-says-1.6537959">Ontario</a> — moved to adopt policies that restricted the independence of schools to recognize or affirm students’ gender identities and ensuring parental participation. </p>
<p>Clearly, an electoral divide is emerging on the issue. </p>
<h2>Left vs. right voters</h2>
<p>We argue this conflict results from a “diploma divide” in the Canadian electorate similar to what has been seen in other countries. Since the 1990s, parties of the left have increasingly been supported by educated voters, while parties of the right have increasingly been supported by richer voters and the less educated.</p>
<p>While political scientists initially noted this trend, it has been popularized more recently by <a href="http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/GMP2022QJE.pdf">noted French economist Thomas Piketty and his colleagues</a>.</p>
<p>So why would educated voters turn to parties that traditionally support more working-class voters?</p>
<p>One answer is that higher education tends to push people to become both more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102471">socially liberal</a> and more economically right wing. </p>
<p>Piketty and his colleagues argue that as parties of the left become dominated by educated voters, they adopt socially liberal positions that alienate their traditional working-class base. These less educated voters long supported leftist parties and their promises to redistribute income and wealth, but those promises have faded as leftist parties court the well-educated. </p>
<p>We extended Piketty’s research into the Canadian context in a recent article in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102648"><em>Electoral Studies</em></a>, using <a href="http://www.ces-eec.ca/">Canadian Election Study</a> data from 1965 to 2019. The graph below compares the probability that voters with university degrees voted for the “left” — the NDP or Liberals — versus the “right,” including candidates running for the Conservatives, Progressive Conservatives, the Reform Party or the Canadian Alliance. </p>
<p>This is exactly the pattern Piketty and his colleagues identified. Educated voters are increasingly turning to the “left.” Meanwhile, less educated voters, along with richer voters, are turning to the right.</p>
<p>But Canada isn’t like other countries since we don’t have a standard left-right party system. Instead, the Liberals have dominated electoral politics as an amorphous party at the centre of the political spectrum — sometimes shifting to the left, sometimes to the right — that always builds a big tent in the middle. </p>
<p>Analyzing these parties’ support separately shows that they have very different bases of support. The graph below shows the effects of the same variables (education and income) but broken out by party. </p>
<p>A different pattern emerges in this graph. While Liberal and Conservative support fits Piketty’s pattern, the NDP is increasingly attracting support from educated but also poorer voters. </p>
<h2>Sources of division</h2>
<p>What are we to make of all this? </p>
<p>With this long view, ongoing societal conflicts since the 1980s about abortion and same-sex rights take on an outsized significance. </p>
<p>Those issues were major sources of division among voters choosing between the Liberals and the Conservatives. The current divide over transgender rights is just the latest episode in the long trend of educated voters increasingly supporting the Liberals (and sometimes the NDP) with less educated voters <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423922000439">increasingly supporting the Conservatives</a>.</p>
<p>However, people concerned with economic redistribution should not despair. Redistributionist politics are not absent from this configuration, particularly in the form of the NDP. For all the talk about <a href="https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/jivani-liberal-ndp-coalition-excludes-the-anti-woke-left">a new “woke” NDP</a>, its base is increasingly dominated by poorer voters. </p>
<p>In the <a href="https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-releases/2022/03/22/delivering-canadians-now">supply and confidence agreement</a> the NDP signed with the Liberals, four of the seven policy points were explicitly about material gains for workers. This included a transformative dental benefits plan for all Canadians. </p>
<p>If culture war conflicts benefit Liberals <a href="https://theconversation.com/anti-trans-protests-the-conservative-party-could-use-ideological-polarization-to-win-voters-214934">and Conservatives</a> in terms of the differences in education, the agreement shows how delivering redistribution is central to the NDP’s electoral ambitions, especially amid an ongoing <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9985761/food-insecurity-poverty-report-canada/">cost-of-living crisis</a>. </p>
<p>The so-called “diploma divide” we identified is going to ensure that cultural and social conflicts will persist indefinitely and will continue to cause political conflict in Canada. </p>
<p>But material and redistributionist concerns are in the mix as well, assisted by the NDP, a social democratic party that is very different from the other “left” party, the Liberals.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/215108/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Kiss receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council for research into the New Democratic Party. He is a long-time member of the New Democratic Party of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matt Polacko receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada, and Fonds de recherche du Québec (FRQSC).</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter Graefe's research on Canadian parties is supported in part by funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council. He is a member of the NDP.</span></em></p>Does the ‘diploma divide’ make politics more about culture than economic inequality?Simon Kiss, Associate Professor Human Rights and Political Science, Wilfrid Laurier UniversityMatt Polacko, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Political Science, University of TorontoPeter Graefe, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, McMaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2149932023-10-04T15:06:38Z2023-10-04T15:06:38ZOuster of Speaker McCarthy highlights House Republican fractures in an increasingly polarized America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/552072/original/file-20231004-24-y82i7z.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=17%2C8%2C5973%2C3979&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Kevin McCarthy, just before he was ousted as speaker of the House. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/speaker-of-the-house-kevin-mccarthy-is-surrounded-by-staff-news-photo/1715424738?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>The House of Representatives on Oct. 3, 2023, did something that had never been done before in the nation’s history: It <a href="https://apnews.com/article/mccarthy-gaetz-speaker-motion-to-vacate-congress-327e294a39f8de079ef5e4abfb1fa555">ousted the speaker of the House</a>. Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican, lost his job in a vote of 216 to 210. To look deeper than the surface machinations, The Conversation U.S. spoke with political scientist <a href="https://www.charlesrhunt.com/">Charles R. Hunt</a> at Boise State University.</em></p>
<p><em>He offers a sense of what this historic development might mean for the government at the moment, as well as for American democracy over the longer term.</em></p>
<h2>What does the ouster say about the House’s ability to function, such as to pass a new budget in the next 45 days?</h2>
<p>It’s important to remember what the purpose of the speaker of the House is: to literally speak for the entire House, to guide legislation through. It’s an unruly chamber of <a href="https://theconversation.com/why-the-us-house-of-representatives-has-435-seats-and-how-that-could-change-191629">435 members</a>.</p>
<p>So what you need, ideally, is someone who has the trust of the chamber – particularly of their own party, since the majority party at least traditionally has unilateral control over the business of the House. So both trust and party discipline are conducive to a smoothly functioning legislative process. </p>
<p>When Americans think of a functioning democracy, they might think of bills getting passed on time, of Congress getting things done. But voters of all party affiliations are frustrated by the gridlock here, particularly <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/03/10/the-polarization-in-todays-congress-has-roots-that-go-back-decades/">over the past decade or two</a>. </p>
<p>The interesting thing about this situation with the speakership is that gridlock has traditionally been between the two parties. Right now, it’s within one party.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551917/original/file-20231003-23-xtl9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired woman walking down a hallway, talking." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551917/original/file-20231003-23-xtl9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551917/original/file-20231003-23-xtl9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551917/original/file-20231003-23-xtl9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551917/original/file-20231003-23-xtl9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551917/original/file-20231003-23-xtl9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551917/original/file-20231003-23-xtl9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551917/original/file-20231003-23-xtl9h.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rep. Nancy Mace, a Republican from South Carolina, voted to oust Kevin McCarthy as speaker.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/rep-nancy-mace-arrives-for-a-house-republican-caucus-news-photo/1704665153?adppopup=true">Drew Angerer/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Do House members want to do what the public wants them to do – get things done?</h2>
<p>Americans say they <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/new-poll-shows-americans-want-congressional-cooperation-but-expect-gridlock">don’t want</a> to be focusing on these fights. But there are members of Congress for whom these fights are really important to how they represent — like Florida Republican Matt Gaetz — who hail from very Republican districts and have staked their reputations on fighting establishment figures in their own party like Kevin McCarthy. Likewise, many Democrats back in 2019 or 2020, when they held the majority in the House, felt they had a responsibility to their mostly Democratic constituents to bring the fight to President Donald Trump.</p>
<p>For some in the GOP, there is also this ideology of smaller government, less spending, lowering the national debt – the more typical conservative Republican priorities. They are not new, but there is now this sense that being anti-establishment, and trying to wield power to its greatest possible extent, is a goal in itself.</p>
<p>Some voters have looked at how the House has operated over the past couple of decades and thought, “we don’t want any more of that.” So they are willing to put their trust in the hands of some of these people who want to, figuratively at least, burn the place down – even if there is no clear exit strategy for what happens next. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/what-are-next-steps-us-house-searches-new-speaker-2023-10-03/">lack of a plan after McCarthy’s ouster</a> seems to show that obstruction is kind of the point.</p>
<h2>How can people understand these events in the context of America’s system of representative democracy?</h2>
<p>Gaetz has been saying he doesn’t like the process, that he wants to go back to “<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-oust-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-remove-speaker-of-the-house/">regular order</a>,” in which budget proposals are voted on separately, instead of in huge omnibus spending bills. He and others just see that the way the House is conducting its business is not working. In Congress, those concerns are mainly coming from the far left and far right. They relate to the increasing polarization in this country, and Congress mirrors that growing division. </p>
<p>Democrats are getting more progressive, and Republicans in particular are getting more conservative over time. This is in part because <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-this-cycle-of-redistricting-is-making-gerrymandered-congressional-districts-even-safer-and-undermining-majority-rule-173103">districts are becoming more and more safe</a> for one party or the other. So the average district is less likely to produce a moderate member of Congress. That increases the influence of party primaries. The voters who participate in these elections tend to be pretty ideologically extreme Republicans and Democrats who don’t want to see their representatives working with the other side.</p>
<p>And the more polarized the country gets, the more you see this element of <a href="https://theconversation.com/bidens-dragging-poll-numbers-wont-matter-in-2024-if-enough-voters-loathe-his-opponent-even-more-204608">negative partisanship</a>, where a representative’s voters are more driven by how much their candidate is willing to fight against the other side, rather than how much they’re getting done for their own side. </p>
<h2>Why isn’t this kind of drama happening in the Senate?</h2>
<p>The cultures of the two institutions are really different, even today. George Washington is said to have described the House as a cup of hot tea that was going to overflow with the passions of the “common people,” and the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Senate_Created.htm">Senate would be the saucer</a> that would catch that overflow.</p>
<p>This session, both institutions are living up to those reputations.</p>
<p>The first reason is that House districts are smaller. They can be drawn in very specific ways and gerrymandered and are more subject to <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-it-comes-to-explaining-elections-in-congress-gerrymandering-is-overrated-201454">geographic sorting</a>, so you end up with really extreme districts, politically. </p>
<p>Whereas in the Senate, they represent whole states. They typically have to represent a lot more people than a House district, a much broader constituency. That can lead to adopting a more consensus-driven tone.</p>
<p>The rules of the Senate are also much more consensus-driven. Rules like the <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/filibusters-cloture.htm">filibuster</a> and <a href="https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/rules-procedures/first-unanimous-consent-agreement.htm">Unanimous Consent Agreements</a> can force more moderate senators to work together to reach a kind of consensus. </p>
<p>Plus, because it’s a smaller body, there is generally more collegiality. These senators know each other better, and so even between the parties you get people teaming up on legislative proposals a lot more often. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551920/original/file-20231003-19-fdn0eu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two men in suits shake hands in front of the US Capitol." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551920/original/file-20231003-19-fdn0eu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/551920/original/file-20231003-19-fdn0eu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551920/original/file-20231003-19-fdn0eu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551920/original/file-20231003-19-fdn0eu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=426&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551920/original/file-20231003-19-fdn0eu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551920/original/file-20231003-19-fdn0eu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/551920/original/file-20231003-19-fdn0eu.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=535&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Senate is more inclined to bipartisanship than the House, as can be seen in the handshake between GOP Sen. Jerry Moran (R-KS) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, after both worked to pass toxic exposure legislation in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/sen-jon-tester-looks-on-as-sen-jerry-moran-and-senate-news-photo/1403310961?adppopup=true">Joe Raedle/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Finally, Senate leadership is less powerful. Mitch McConnell, when he was the majority leader, wielded a great amount of procedural power, and Chuck Schumer does now, but much less than the speaker does in the House. This creates a lot of the friction in the House between leadership and rank and file that you don’t typically see in the Senate.</p>
<h2>What are the key differences that help explain how these different House members are behaving?</h2>
<p>This is the big question Americans ask: Why on Earth does Congress do any of the things it does? </p>
<p>It may not seem like it, but members of Congress have incentives for doing what they do. There are the incentives of Congress as a whole. There are the incentives of the two parties, which is why they meet in their conferences and caucuses to strategize.</p>
<p>But individual members also face <a href="https://theconversation.com/voters-want-compromise-in-congress-so-why-the-brinkmanship-over-the-debt-ceiling-206465">very different pressures</a> in their different districts, even if they’re in the same party. Consider Gaetz, whose district Trump won by almost 40 points. He faces no serious challenge in a general election against a Democrat because it’s mostly Republicans in the district. The only race that really matters in this district is the primary. </p>
<p>By contrast, think of a moderate Republican from New York in a district that Joe Biden won by four or five points. This person understands that to get reelected, they need some critical mass of independents and maybe even some Democrats to support them.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the only constituency that any member of Congress must be responsive to is the one in their district. In political science, we call it <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07343469.2020.1811425">dyadic representation</a>. It’s a pairing, a dialogue, between a member and their constituents. And that is ultimately what they are thinking about, or, at least, they should be thinking about if they want to get reelected. This is how you get these divergent approaches to governing.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/214993/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Long gridlocked by fighting between the two major political parties, the US House is now split by conflict within the GOP, thanks in part to redistricting practices that boost extremism.Charlie Hunt, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Boise State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2119812023-09-15T12:32:33Z2023-09-15T12:32:33ZThe president loves ice cream, and a senator has a new girlfriend – these personal details may seem trivial, but can help reduce political polarization<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548370/original/file-20230914-21-jykpd2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=582%2C68%2C3532%2C2636&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">President Joe Biden eats an ice cream cone at a Baskin-Robbins in Portland, Ore., in October 2022. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/Biden/c0b94faf3c4243ca812030a8476234a2/photo?Query=Biden%20ice%20cream&mediaType=photo&sortBy=arrivaldatetime:desc&dateRange=Anytime&totalCount=123&currentItemNo=14">Carolyn Kaster/AP </a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Politicians want to be heard – to land a soundbite on the nightly news, to advertise their legislative accomplishments and to have people know their platform. But when given opportunities to talk to voters, they often share details about their personal lives instead.</p>
<p>Presidential candidate Tim Scott used a September 2023 appearance on Fox News to talk about <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-calls-critics-scared-tim-scott-introduce-girlfriend/story?id=103070885">his dating life</a>, saying that voters would soon meet his girlfriend. On Twitter, Senator Ted Cruz often posts <a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1701279302937882844">football clips</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/tedcruz/status/1698107085353861125">selfies at sporting events</a>. </p>
<p>And in July 2023, President Joe Biden, who has <a href="https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/12/20/joe-biden-loves-ice-cream-sg-orig.cnn">described himself as an “ice cream guy,”</a> tweeted a picture of himself holding an ice cream cone captioned, “<a href="https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1680615812762091521">In my book, every day is National Ice Cream Day.</a>” </p>
<p>This trend of politicians sharing personal information isn’t new. </p>
<p>One study of <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/abs/twitter-style-an-analysis-of-how-house-candidates-used-twitter-in-their-2012-campaigns/2975E5DB5DC41AE4F4977264DDDFE649">campaign tweets</a> found that congressional candidates in 2012 were more likely to tweet about their personal lives than their policy platforms.</p>
<p>Why do politicians share so much from their personal lives on the campaign trail? </p>
<p>I am a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=DgNh6bUAAAAJ&hl=en">scholar of political science,</a> and <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/how-political-content-in-us-weekly-can-reduce-polarized-affect-toward-elected-officials/5548A22DCB7E068C9EB74AF17F57BC73">my research</a> shows that when people see elected officials as people and not just politicians, it boosts their popularity. It also reduces party polarization in people’s views of politicians.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Ted Cruz holds up a green jersey with his name on it while standing at a podium." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548158/original/file-20230913-23-nw2awe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Senator Ted Cruz receives a Philadelphia Eagles jersey at a political rally in Philadelphia in 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/senator-ted-cruz-receives-a-philadelphia-eagles-jersey-news-photo/922467386?adppopup=true">Bastiaan Slabbers/NurPhoto via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘House of Cards’ to hot sauce</h2>
<p>My research was inspired by the weekly column, “<a href="https://www.usmagazine.com/tag/25-things-you-dont-know-about-me/">25 Things You Didn’t Know About Me</a>” published in the celebrity entertainment magazine Us Weekly. While actors, musicians and reality television personalities regularly share facts about themselves or their personal lives in this column, several politicians have been featured over the years. </p>
<p>In 2016, <a href="https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/ted-cruz-25-things-you-dont-know-about-me-w167243/">then-presidential candidate Cruz</a> shared with the magazine that his first video game was Pong and that he has watched every episode of the Netflix drama series “House of Cards.” When she was running for president in 2016, former Secretary of State <a href="https://www.usmagazine.com/celebrity-news/news/hillary-clinton-25-things-you-dont-know-about-me-w203125/">Hillary Clinton shared</a> that she loves mystery novels and puts hot sauce on everything. </p>
<p>I was interested in whether these kinds of autobiographical and apolitical details changed how people evaluate elected officials.</p>
<p>As part of my research, I noted five items from the list Cruz provided to Us Weekly in 2016, along with five similar autobiographical details collected from the news that same year about Senator Bernie Sanders. </p>
<p>Details about Cruz included that his favorite movie is “The Princess Bride” and that he was once suspended in high school for skipping class to play foosball. Sanders, meanwhile, has shared in news interviews that he is a fan of the television show “Modern Family” and that he proposed to his wife in the <a href="https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/266468-sanders-proposed-to-wife-in-friendlys-parking-lot/">parking lot of a Friendly’s restaurant.</a></p>
<p>I then shared these details with a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Americans in a survey conducted just before the 2020 election. Half were asked to just rate the senator, while the other half were given one of these lists of autobiographical details before rating their favorability toward the senator. </p>
<p>I found that those who read autobiographical details gave warmer evaluations of the politicians than those who did not learn these facts. </p>
<p>Even though both Cruz and Sanders are well known and arguably polarizing politicians, members of the public nonetheless shifted their opinions of the senators when they found out a little more about them as people.</p>
<p>I also found that these autobiographical details led to candidate ratings that were less polarized along party lines. </p>
<p>People’s party loyalties typically determine their views of elected officials. People offer positive ratings of politicians who share their partisan loyalties and very negative ratings of those from the opposing party. </p>
<p>But in my research, I found that minor details like Cruz’s penchant for canned soup were especially likely to boost his ratings among Democrats. And Sanders’ love of the <a href="https://theweek.com/speedreads/589630/bernie-sanders-really-into-disco-music-abba-celine-dion">musical group ABBA</a> was especially likely to improve his favorability ratings among Republicans. </p>
<p>We know that people tend to evaluate new information <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/3694247">through the lens of their partisan biases</a>. People generally accept new information that reinforces their views, and are skeptical of information that is inconsistent with their prior beliefs. </p>
<p>But when politicians share autobiographical details, people see them as humans – and not just through the lens of their usual partisan biases. When politicians talk about their personal lives, it not only appeals to their supporters, but dampens the negativity people feel toward politicians from the opposing party.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Bernie Sanders walks through a crowd of people smiling, standing in front of his wife." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/548161/original/file-20230913-41247-9uynd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Senator Bernie Sanders has shared personal details about his relationship with his wife, Jane O'Meara Sanders, pictured together in 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/democratic-presidential-candidate-sen-bernie-sanders-shakes-news-photo/1211594134?adppopup=true">Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>What this means for politics</h2>
<p>Even in a time where partisanship drives elections, there is still value in being likable.</p>
<p>For elected officials who want to boost their support among supporters of rival partisans, shifting the focus to personality rather than partisan politics can be a useful strategy. </p>
<p>I think that this approach could also help depolarize politics. </p>
<p>If political campaigns focused more on the candidates rather than replaying familiar partisan divides, views of elected officials would be less polarized along party lines. </p>
<p>It can be tempting to dismiss the political content in late night talk shows or celebrity entertainment magazines as mere fluff and a distraction from serious policy debates. But we also know that <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo11644533.html">policy issues rarely matter</a> for the votes people cast. Instead, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034">party loyalties determine much of people’s decision-making</a>. In a time of deeply partisan politics, it is useful to find ways to interrupt partisan biases and decrease polarization.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211981/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Wolak does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>When politicians talk more about their personal lives and less about politics, it makes people from the opposing side of the political line see them as people and like them more.Jennifer Wolak, Professor of political science, Michigan State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2083522023-08-27T13:32:43Z2023-08-27T13:32:43ZBusiness schools must step up on sustainable investing education<iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/business-schools-must-step-up-on-sustainable-investing-education" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Sustainable investing takes into account environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors alongside traditional financial components. While this form of investing has existed for a long time, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-esg-backlash-may-be-dampening-investor-interest-in-us-but-theres-a/">ESG has become a hot-button issue</a> due to recent politicization and widespread public misconceptions around what it really entails. </p>
<p>ESG investing examines quantitative and qualitative non-financial data on companies. This includes environmental issues like carbon emissions, pollution and resource use; social issues like employee treatment and relationships with communities; and governance issues like diversity of corporate boards, business ethics and transparency. </p>
<p>Criticisms of ESG investing have been exacerbated by post-secondary finance programs that barely touch upon these issues, resulting in a significant <a href="https://www.thestar.com/business/2022/01/18/report-highlights-gap-in-sustainable-finance-skills-need-for-coordination.html">shortage of qualified sustainable investment professionals</a>. </p>
<h2>Due diligence</h2>
<p>A basic qualification for finance graduates is the ability to analyze the environmental, social or governance factors that create risks and opportunities for a given company and, in turn, affect investors’ returns. </p>
<p>This should not be controversial; it’s simply part of proper due diligence in portfolio investing, similar to analyzing financial factors. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-does-esg-mean-two-business-scholars-explain-what-environmental-social-and-governance-standards-and-principles-are-196768">What does ESG mean? Two business scholars explain what environmental, social and governance standards and principles are</a>
</strong>
</em>
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<p>Unfortunately, graduates often lack even this basic qualification, in addition to more advanced expertise required to assess the investment impacts on people and the planet.</p>
<p>Given the climate crisis and persistent inequality, business schools must urgently and immediately tackle the sustainability deficit in finance education. Formal instruction must be enhanced with experiential learning techniques that expose students to the complexity and nuances of sustainable investing.</p>
<p>Our research shows that <a href="https://impactinvestinghub.ca/student-managed-funds/">Student Managed Investment Funds (SMIFs)</a> — currently present at many Canadian universities — are an underused, hands-on learning opportunity for training the next generation of sustainable investment professionals. </p>
<h2>ESG under fire</h2>
<p>Despite the potential of sustainable investing to accelerate the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition">net-zero carbon transition</a> and support the <a href="https://www.globalgoals.org/goals/">UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)</a>, it has come under fire in recent years. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543239/original/file-20230817-14573-5ej42m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired man speaks into a microphone." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543239/original/file-20230817-14573-5ej42m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543239/original/file-20230817-14573-5ej42m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543239/original/file-20230817-14573-5ej42m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543239/original/file-20230817-14573-5ej42m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543239/original/file-20230817-14573-5ej42m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543239/original/file-20230817-14573-5ej42m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/543239/original/file-20230817-14573-5ej42m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The head of the Kansas Public Employees Retirement System testifies before a Kansas legislative committee in March 2023 about a bill that would bar the pension system from ESG investing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/John Hanna)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Politically, sustainable investing has become a <a href="https://hbr.org/2023/02/rescuing-esg-from-the-culture-wars">flashpoint for partisan conflict in America’s culture wars</a>. Right-wing critics argue that including ESG considerations in investment decisions is intrusive moralizing and part of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffraikes/2023/07/17/is-the-war-on-woke-a-war-on-our-countrys-future/">a “woke capitalism” agenda</a>. </p>
<p>Counterparts on the left downplay concerns about economic transition costs or <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-esg-funds-have-gotten-an-easy-ride-despite-their-ineffectiveness/">exaggerate the power of ESG investing</a> to create a better world. </p>
<p>Recent studies also show that <a href="https://mitsloan.mit.edu/sustainability-initiative/aggregate-confusion-project">third-party ESG ratings are unreliable</a>, leaving considerable room for <a href="https://www.esgtoday.com/guest-post-greenwashing-greenhushing-and-greenwishing-dont-fall-victim-to-these-esg-reporting-traps/">greenwashing or, at minimum, “greenwishing</a>” — when companies or investors have good intentions but fail to meet their sustainability goals. </p>
<p>Criticisms and politicization, combined with other factors, have <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-esg-equity-funds-suffer-big-outflows-buffeted-by-market-jitters-and-us/">curtailed flows to ESG funds</a>. This is unfortunate given the urgent need to mobilize more financial capital to address climate change, biodiversity loss and inequality. </p>
<h2>Reforming business schools</h2>
<p>Developing competence in sustainable investing requires a serious revision in business school finance programs. </p>
<p>Core courses must include sustainable investing concepts and tools as part of mainstream financial education. This is especially important given fast-evolving ESG and climate-related regulations and rising global risks that pose new threats to companies and investors. </p>
<p>It’s also important that students learn the limits of different forms of sustainable investing to avoid falling into the trap of greenwashing. </p>
<p>Many ESG strategies primarily focus on risk mitigation with, at best, a marginal impact on people or the planet. Others, such as <a href="https://smith.queensu.ca/centres/isf/resources/primer-series/impact-investing.php">impact investing</a>, focus on measurable social and environmental outcomes, often using the UN’s SDGs for their impact goals, alongside financial returns. </p>
<p>Impact investing could unlock much needed capital for critical sectors in the net-zero transition that would otherwise be underfunded when using traditional financial metrics. </p>
<p>In short, sustainable investing, in all its forms, requires additional skills that are currently lacking in finance education. Social and environmental impacts can be difficult to quantify and may require longer-term perspectives and qualitative judgements about potential impacts on many stakeholders. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A lecture hall with a man at the front delivering a lecture." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542820/original/file-20230815-23-qwj562.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/542820/original/file-20230815-23-qwj562.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542820/original/file-20230815-23-qwj562.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542820/original/file-20230815-23-qwj562.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542820/original/file-20230815-23-qwj562.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542820/original/file-20230815-23-qwj562.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/542820/original/file-20230815-23-qwj562.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">It’s important that students learn the limits of different forms of sustainable investing to avoid falling into the trap of greenwashing.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Unsplash)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Student-managed investment funds</h2>
<p>These skills are best developed through hands-on practice that supplements formal instruction. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-02-2021-0080">Student-Managed Investment Funds (SMIFs)</a> provide students with experience working together to manage real investment portfolios under the guidance of faculty supervisors and industry professionals. </p>
<p>Canadian universities have established more than 30 funds that students oversee as portfolio managers, buying and selling stocks, bonds or other assets. The capital in these funds comes from a variety of sources, including donations from companies, philanthropic gifts from individuals or foundations, and in some cases from university endowments.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, our research shows that only a <a href="https://impactinvestinghub.ca/student-managed-funds/">small minority of these funds include ESG considerations</a> in their mandates. </p>
<p>Of the 31 Canadian SMIFs we analyzed (totalling $79.5 million managed by students), only five (16 per cent) have some level of ESG consideration. Since business schools have long used student-managed funds to train the next generation of investment bankers, financial analysts and other financial industry professionals, this is surprising — and disappointing.</p>
<p>The gap is even more pronounced for impact investing, which is barely mentioned in any of the funds in our sample, despite universities’ commitments to the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541123/original/file-20230803-29-zt1tn3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a graph shows the size of smifs in canada with and without ESG components." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541123/original/file-20230803-29-zt1tn3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/541123/original/file-20230803-29-zt1tn3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541123/original/file-20230803-29-zt1tn3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541123/original/file-20230803-29-zt1tn3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541123/original/file-20230803-29-zt1tn3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541123/original/file-20230803-29-zt1tn3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/541123/original/file-20230803-29-zt1tn3.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=650&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Authors’ analysis of the size of SMIFs with and without ESG components, based on publicly available data from major Canadian business schools’ websites as of fall 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Impact Investing Hub, University of Victoria</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Sustainable finance education could benefit greatly when students work together to integrate financial, environmental and social factors in student-managed investment funds. </p>
<p>Learning by doing helps students develop important analytical skills, familiarizes them with key tools and data sources and helps them navigate the <a href="https://impactinvestinghub.ca/esg-impact-standards/">maze of ESG standards, frameworks and guidelines</a>.</p>
<h2>The role of universities</h2>
<p>Including sustainability mandates in finance programs and student-managed investment funds will ensure Canadian universities train the next generation of sustainable investment professionals needed to accelerate the net-zero transition. </p>
<p>We encourage university administrators and finance educators across the country to immediately implement ESG policies for existing student-managed investment funds. In collaboration with industry and donors, new funds could also be established that focus on particular themes, like climate solutions or <a href="https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Nature_positive_CEO_Briefing.pdf">nature-positive investing</a>. </p>
<p>One encouraging initiative in this regard is by <a href="https://www.propelimpact.com/investing-fellowship">Propel Impact</a>, a non-profit that is collaborating with seven universities to run their own local student impact funds. </p>
<p>Through creative partnerships with investors, Propel has been supporting student training while benefiting local communities, with $750,000 directed by students toward 14 Canadian social enterprises over the past three years. We offer this program to University of Victoria students and hope it expands to more Canadian universities. </p>
<p>As we confront pressing social and environmental challenges, we can’t be discouraged by partisan sniping. Instead, we must build momentum for sustainable investing by training future financial professionals more effectively.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208352/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lorin Busaan receives funding from the UVic Impact Investing Hub for research assistance on a variety of topics related to sustainable finance and impact investing.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Basma Majerbi receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions and Mitacs. </span></em></p>As we confront pressing social and environmental challenges, business schools must play a big role in building momentum for sustainable investing and ignore partisan, anti-ESG sniping.Lorin Busaan, PhD Student, Gustavson School of Business, University of VictoriaBasma Majerbi, Associate Professor of Finance, Gustavson School of Business, University of VictoriaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2111722023-08-21T12:25:01Z2023-08-21T12:25:01ZSocial media algorithms warp how people learn from each other, research shows<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/543348/original/file-20230817-21-haki9e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5455%2C3612&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social media pushes evolutionary buttons.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://newsroom.ap.org/detail/IndiaNewInternetRules/c9d25794d9254a9ab63672ec0e896af5/photo">AP Photo/Manish Swarup</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People’s daily interactions with online algorithms <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2023.06.008">affect how they learn from others</a>, with negative consequences including social misperceptions, conflict and the spread of misinformation, my colleagues and I have found.</p>
<p>People are increasingly interacting with others in social media environments where algorithms control the flow of social information they see. Algorithms determine in part which messages, which people and which ideas social media users see.</p>
<p>On social media platforms, algorithms are mainly <a href="https://theconversation.com/facebook-whistleblower-frances-haugen-testified-that-the-companys-algorithms-are-dangerous-heres-how-they-can-manipulate-you-169420">designed to amplify information that sustains engagement</a>, meaning they keep people clicking on content and coming back to the platforms. I’m a <a href="https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/directory/brady_william.aspx">social psychologist</a>, and my colleagues and I have found evidence suggesting that a side effect of this design is that algorithms amplify information people are strongly biased to learn from. We call this information “PRIME,” for prestigious, in-group, moral and emotional information.</p>
<p>In our evolutionary past, biases to learn from PRIME information were very advantageous: <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1090-5138(00)00071-4">Learning from prestigious individuals is efficient</a> because these people are successful and their behavior can be copied. Paying attention to people who violate moral norms is important because <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.980">sanctioning them helps the community maintain cooperation</a>.</p>
<p>But what happens when PRIME information becomes amplified by algorithms and some people exploit algorithm amplification to promote themselves? Prestige becomes a poor signal of success because people can fake prestige on social media. Newsfeeds become oversaturated with negative and moral information so that there is conflict rather than cooperation. </p>
<p>The interaction of human psychology and algorithm amplification leads to dysfunction because social learning supports cooperation and problem-solving, but social media algorithms are designed to increase engagement. We call this mismatch <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2023.06.008">functional misalignment</a>.</p>
<h2>Why it matters</h2>
<p>One of the key outcomes of functional misalignment in algorithm-mediated social learning is that people start to form incorrect perceptions of their social world. For example, recent research suggests that when algorithms selectively amplify more extreme political views, people begin to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01582-0">think that their political in-group and out-group are more sharply divided</a> than they really are. Such “false polarization” might be an <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2020.07.005">important source of greater political conflict</a>.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WLfr7sU5W2E?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Social media algorithms amplify extreme political views.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Functional misalignment can also lead to greater spread of misinformation. A recent study suggests that people who are spreading <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/tms0000136">political misinformation leverage moral and emotional information</a> – for example, posts that provoke moral outrage – in order to get people to share it more. When algorithms amplify moral and emotional information, misinformation gets included in the amplification.</p>
<h2>What other research is being done</h2>
<p>In general, research on this topic is in its infancy, but there are new studies emerging that examine key components of algorithm-mediated social learning. Some studies have demonstrated that <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.16941">social media algorithms clearly amplify PRIME information</a>.</p>
<p>Whether this amplification leads to offline polarization is hotly contested at the moment. A recent experiment found evidence that <a href="https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191777">Meta’s newsfeed increases polarization</a>, but another experiment that involved a collaboration with Meta <a href="https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abp9364">found no evidence of polarization increasing</a> due to exposure to their algorithmic Facebook newsfeed.</p>
<p>More research is needed to fully understand the outcomes that emerge when humans and algorithms interact in feedback loops of social learning. Social media companies have most of the needed data, and I believe that they should give academic researchers access to it while also balancing ethical concerns such as privacy.</p>
<h2>What’s next</h2>
<p>A key question is what can be done to make algorithms foster accurate human social learning rather than exploit social learning biases. My research team is working on new algorithm designs that increase engagement <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2023.06.008">while also penalizing PRIME information</a>. We argue that this might maintain user activity that social media platforms seek, but also make people’s social perceptions more accurate.</p>
<p><em>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/us/topics/research-brief-83231">Research Brief</a> is a short take on interesting academic work.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/211172/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>William Brady does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Social media companies’ drive to keep you on their platforms clashes with how people evolved to learn from each other. One result is more conflict and misinformation.William Brady, Assistant Professor of Management and Organizations, Northwestern UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2090912023-07-19T18:01:24Z2023-07-19T18:01:24ZJudicial activism has had vastly different impacts in Brazil and the United States<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537835/original/file-20230717-230483-yzjj97.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C395%2C4551%2C2629&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Donald Trump sits next to Jair Bolsonaro at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla., in March 2020, when both men led their countries.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/judicial-activism-has-had-vastly-different-impacts-on-jair-bolsonaro-and-donald-trump" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Earlier this summer, Brazil’s top electoral court <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66070923">banned former president Jair Bolsonaro from running for office for eight years</a>. Bolsonaro is 68 and will be unable to run for president until he’s 75.</p>
<p>Five of seven electoral court judges supported the ban on Bolsonaro, who, in the lead-up to the 2022 election, spread misinformation about the legitimacy of Brazil’s electronic voting system. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brazil-election-lula-bolsonaro-violence-riot-military-vote-1.6574862">Brazil’s election was marred in violence, with voter suppression tactics occurring before the election</a>. After the vote, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/bolsonaro-supporters-storm-brazil-congress-1.6707323">stormed the Presidential Palace, congress and the Supreme Court</a>.</p>
<p>“This response will confirm our faith in the democracy,” <a href="https://noticias.uol.com.br/ultimas-noticias/agencia-estado/2023/06/30/bolsonaro-inelegivel-confirma-fe-na-democracia-diz-moraes.htm">said Alexandre de Moraes</a>, a Supreme Court justice and head of the electoral court, as he cast his vote against Bolsonaro.</p>
<p>The former president is expected to appeal the ruling. However, he still faces 15 cases in the electoral court along with several ongoing criminal investigations. They encompass accusations that he improperly used public funds to influence the electoral vote and target his role in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/08/world/americas/brazil-election-protests-bolsonaro.html">provoking his followers to violence</a> on Jan. 8, 2023. </p>
<p>A conviction in these cases may render him ineligible to ever run for office.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man in a mask looks out a shattered window." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537855/original/file-20230717-241434-iyqll0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A supporter of Jair Bolsonaro looks out from a shattered window of the Planalto Palace after he and his fellow protesters stormed it in Brasilia, Brazil, in January 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Eraldo Peres)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons for the United States</h2>
<p>The court’s ruling demonstrates an essential milestone in Brazil’s young democracy while offering lessons for other countries. That’s particularly true for the United States, where former president Donald Trump is the frontrunner to be the Republican presidential candidate in 2024 despite being under two indictments.</p>
<p>First, it indicates that Brazil’s institutions tend to respond vigorously when they perceive threats to democracy and prioritize preserving institutional stability. </p>
<p>Second, it highlights the proactive engagement of legal systems in addressing substantial modern risks to democracy, like disinformation, hate speech and attempts to manipulate voters. </p>
<p>Finally, it establishes a precedent to punish leaders, even presidents, who try to manipulate voters and stoke polarization. </p>
<p>But there are also important implications about the role of the courts in elections and the impact of judicial activism.</p>
<p>Bolsonaro — <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/11/world/americas/bolsonaro-trump-brazil-election.html">evidently inspired by his close ally, Trump</a> — followed a similar trajectory after losing his re-election campaign. Like Trump, he resorted to casting doubt and spreading misinformation about his country’s electoral system, ultimately leading to the storming of their respective democratic institutions. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1540669147952123904"}"></div></p>
<p>But the aftermath of their actions has unfolded in very different ways.</p>
<p>In Brazil, elections are governed by a federal court, which can determine whether candidates can seek office. The courts reacted swiftly after the Brazilian election, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2023/06/30/1185364211/brazil-bolsonaro-court-banned-election">barring Bolsonaro from re-election,</a> citing a threat to the country’s democracy. </p>
<p>American elections, however, are run by individual states, with different policies determining eligibility. Trump’s fate is therefore left up to the voters and the deliberative U.S. judicial system.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A man holds up a yellow soccer jersey with a green No. 10 while another man smiles in an armchair beside him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/538159/original/file-20230719-21-drknta.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Jair Bolsonaro presents Donald Trump with a Brazilian national team soccer jersey in the Oval Office of the White House in March 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Judicial activism</h2>
<p>The striking difference between the two cases is the role of the judiciary in federal elections. In Brazil, the court took on a role as a political regulator, <a href="https://www.theamericanconservative.com/brazils-emerging-judicial-dictatorship/">fuelling a debate about judicial activism.</a></p>
<p>Judicial activism — when the judiciary takes an active role in addressing instability, threats or inequality rather than simply responding to cases brought by third parties — <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3923921">is attracting growing interest from scholars.</a> </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/confidence-in-the-supreme-court-is-declining-but-there-is-no-easy-way-to-oversee-justices-and-their-politics-187233">Confidence in the Supreme Court is declining – but there is no easy way to oversee justices and their politics</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The active role of courts often comes into play when democratic institutions are under threat, slow to act or neglectful in making crucial decisions or passing significant laws, leading to potential instability or dangerous legal loopholes.</p>
<p>Judicial activism has been <a href="https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes/em-debate-eleitoral-bolsonaro-critica-stf-e-ativismo-judicial/">particularly evident in the case of Bolsonaro</a>. A culmination of electoral misinformation, violence, threats against the judiciary and political instability resulted in the electoral court’s intervention.</p>
<p>This strong judicial response resulted in the loss of Bolsonaro’s political rights. It raises an important question: how far can a judiciary, intended to be independent and impartial, involve itself in the outcome of democratic proceedings?</p>
<p>Some scholars point out that <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/209720/edit">judicial activism can have negative effects on society.</a> </p>
<p>This is especially true when a president appoints court justices based on their political alignment and agenda. Trump did so and the result has been the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/24/us/politics/supreme-court-dobbs-jackson-analysis-roe-wade.html">endorsement of anti-abortion laws by the U.S. Supreme Court</a>. Another example is in Venezuela, where <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-27/venezuela-appoints-new-high-court-packed-with-government-allies?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner">the judiciary has supported President Nicolás Maduro</a>, resulting in the persecution of politicians who oppose his established regime.</p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A bald man sips from a white cup." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537831/original/file-20230717-200504-t3lnuk.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alexandre de Moraes, head of Brazil’s electoral court, sips coffee during Jair Bolsonaro’s trial at the Supreme Court in Brasilia, Brazil, in June 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Gustavo Moreno)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="https://exame.com/brasil/bolsonaro-inelegivel-como-ficara-o-cenario-politico-entre-aliados-e-opositores/">The role of the courts in determining Bolsonaro’s fate has fuelled far-right extremism in Brazil</a>. The Supreme Court has become a target, with threats and violence directed at its judges and their families. <a href="https://pledgetimes.com/pgr-says-it-will-take-appropriate-measures-on-attacks-on-moraes/">De Moraes and his son, in fact, were recently attacked at an airport in Italy by three Brazilians</a>.</p>
<h2>Overreach?</h2>
<p>Bolsonaro’s followers believe the judiciary has overstepped its bounds, intruding into the political arena. This sentiment could benefit politicians endorsed by Bolsonaro in upcoming elections. </p>
<p>On the other hand, <a href="https://www.dw.com/pt-br/com-bolsonaro-ineleg%C3%ADvel-a-direita-deve-lucrar-mais-que-a-esquerda/a-66052529">right-wing politicians who employ disinformation and hate speech as tools for electoral manipulation may need to change tactics</a>, prompted by the fear of judicial repercussions for voter incitement. </p>
<p>The actual impacts of the electoral court’s ruling, and the future of the far right in Brazil, will be tested during municipal elections in October 2024.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209091/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Judicial activism can be a double-edged sword. While it swiftly penalized Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro for election misinformation that stoked violence, it’s resulted in anti-choice laws in the U.S.Gerson Scheidweiler, Post-Doctoral Research Fellow in Equity Studies and member of the Dahdaleh Institute for Global Health Research, York University, CanadaTyler Valiquette, PhD Candidate, Human Geography, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2097282023-07-17T20:05:50Z2023-07-17T20:05:50ZAlbertans have more in common than recent elections suggest<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537606/original/file-20230716-123600-zs6whc.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C47%2C5329%2C3709&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Crowds attend Family Day at the Calgary Stampede in Calgary in July 2023. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span></figcaption></figure><iframe style="width: 100%; height: 100px; border: none; position: relative; z-index: 1;" allowtransparency="" allow="clipboard-read; clipboard-write" src="https://narrations.ad-auris.com/widget/the-conversation-canada/albertans-have-more-in-common-than-recent-elections-suggest" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<p>Politics in Alberta are more volatile than ever. And the environment appears to be getting increasingly hostile, with the common ground between progressives and conservatives shrinking election by election.</p>
<p>After four decades of Progressive Conservative governments, Albertans appeared to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-32604002">swerve left in 2015</a> by electing the New Democrats led by Rachel Notley. This dramatic turn of events came just a few years after voters elected the province’s <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/calgarys-naheed-nenshi-becomes-canadas-first-muslim-mayor/article1215182/">first Muslim mayor</a> in 2010 and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/albertans-elect-tory-majority-government-1.1133869">female premier</a> in 2011. </p>
<p>In these ways, the province seemed to have shifted away from its “cowboy” past, becoming one of Canada’s <a href="https://www.abmunis.ca/news/new-census-shows-continuing-urbanization-alberta">most urbanized</a> and <a href="https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/how-well-can-the-ucp-or-ndp-reflect-albertas-diverse-population-a-look-at-the-numbers">ethnically diverse</a> provinces. </p>
<h2>Return of the Conservatives</h2>
<p>The status quo appeared to return, however, when Jason Kenney’s new United Conservative Party (UCP) took back control of the provincial government in 2019. But within months, the government’s inability to handle a dramatic downturn in commodity prices and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/opinion-alberta-ndp-notley-jason-kenney-leadership-1.6480595">prompted Albertans</a> to turn against the UCP. </p>
<p>Under new leader Danielle Smith, the UCP <a href="https://rabble.ca/elections/smiths-ucp-ekes-out-a-win-in-calgary-secures-majority/">retained power</a> with a narrow majority, losing most of their seats in Calgary while tallying massive victories in rural areas.</p>
<p>What to make of these sudden swings in party support? Is Alberta as conservative as its conventional image suggests? Are Albertans becoming increasingly polarized? <a href="https://cground.substack.com/p/political-polarization-in-alberta">Ongoing Common Ground research</a> conducted by our University of Alberta research team suggests: in some ways, yes. In other ways, no. </p>
<p>Our team has been in the field since 2019, studying public opinion and political culture in the province. More than anything, our Viewpoint Alberta surveys and Common Ground focus groups reveal a growing gulf between who Albertans actually are, as individuals, and who they see themselves to be, as a community.</p>
<p>When asked which values are big features of provincial politics, most Albertans continue to describe the dominance of “Wild West” notions like freedom, western alienation, bootstrap individualism and prosperity. In short, their perception of the typical Albertan remains rooted in a cowboy past. </p>
<p>This collective, right-wing mentality helps shape the <a href="https://www.mackinac.org/OvertonWindow">realm of the possible</a> in the minds of many politicians and voters. If we believe that the typical Albertan favours libertarian policies, for instance, we are less likely to raise moderate or progressive alternatives for fear of being labelled out of touch. </p>
<p>Regardless of their own political leanings, <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-who-do-albertans-think-they-are-municipal-election-results-1.6221407">most Albertans</a> see their community as overwhelmingly conservative and resistant to change.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A woman in a cowboy hat serves pancakes to a dark-haired woman." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C4504%2C3315&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=442&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537605/original/file-20230716-63212-iyqll0.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=555&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Alberta Premier Danielle Smith serves up pancakes at her Stampede breakfast in Calgary in July 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Albertans more united than it appears</h2>
<p>Yet when asked about their own political preferences, the average Albertan is far less conservative than the cowboy image suggests. This is true in both urban and rural areas, as Albertans are more united than meets the eye. They tend to be moderate, even progressive, when it comes to social issues like health care and inclusion. </p>
<p>Consider the findings from the latest <a href="https://c-dem.ca/">election study from C-Dem</a>, an election research consortium, that connected our Viewpoint Alberta team with a group of researchers studying federal and provincial politics across Canada. </p>
<p>A full 40 per cent of Albertans believe government should be spending more on social programs, while only one in 10 think the province should be spending less. On education, 60 per cent believe Alberta should spend more, while only five per cent think there should be less spending.</p>
<p>Results from the same survey show that many Albertans simply don’t view their broader community in the same progressive terms. </p>
<p>When asked to place the “typical Albertan” on an ideological spectrum, more than two-thirds (70 per cent) position that person on the right. In reality, however, roughly half of Albertans place themselves in the centre or on the left of that same spectrum, with the other half indicating they are right-wing. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A person in a blue T-shirt holds up a sign that reads Love Wins at an anti-racism protest." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=428&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/537607/original/file-20230716-156724-ycstss.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=538&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters hold signs during an anti-racism rally in Calgary in June 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>When a society’s collective image diverges from the values of many of its members, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32412-y">cultural rifts can widen</a>. Heated disputes often erupt between those looking to redefine their community’s values and those seeking to preserve them. Communities can succumb to polarization, factionalism and paralysis. </p>
<p>Instead of viewing opponents as adversaries with whom we share broad objectives, people start to see them as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/17/opinion/enemies-vs-adversaries.html?smid=url-share">enemies to be “owned,” discredited or even destroyed</a> in case they ruin our livelihoods and ways of life. </p>
<p>Politics becomes a contest to humiliate, harm and delegitimize rather than building for a shared future. This sort of factionalism breeds instability, as witnessed in countries like the <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123420000125">United Kingdom via Brexit</a> and the rise of Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement in the United States.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-fascist-efforts-to-demolish-democracy-106247">Trump's fascist efforts to demolish democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Talking to Albertans</h2>
<p>Our Common Ground research team is visiting communities across Alberta this summer to get a handle on whether these sorts of forces are at play closer to home. </p>
<p>Over the past four years, we’ve been impressed at the level of civility and moderation displayed by everyday Albertans. At the same time, we have seen worrying signs of factionalism. </p>
<p>Politicians <a href="https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/politicians-denounce-video-of-alberta-man-verbally-harassing-deputy-prime-minister-chrystia-freeland-1.6045106">have been targeted</a> for harassment; politicians have <a href="https://thetyee.ca/News/2023/05/17/Bully-Haunting-Alberta-Election/">targeted citizens</a> in the same way; local politics in some communities are devolving into <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/empress-medicine-hat-alberta-steve-springett-1.6434145">bitter partisan battles</a>.</p>
<p>This summer, we’re looking for more Albertans from all walks of life to <a href="https://cground.substack.com/p/what-is-life-like-for-the-typical">sign up and join us</a> for a conversation about what we can do to rebuild common ground within and among our communities. </p>
<p>There’s more that unites Albertans than election results and political rhetoric suggests.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209728/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jared Wesley receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. His full disclosure statement is available here: <a href="https://jaredwesley.ca/disclosure">https://jaredwesley.ca/disclosure</a></span></em></p>Ongoing research suggests the average Albertan is far less conservative than it appears, especially on social issues like health care and inclusion.Jared Wesley, Professor, Political Science, University of AlbertaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2088312023-07-01T00:41:01Z2023-07-01T00:41:01ZUniversity of Waterloo stabbings: We all need to teach ‘gender issues’ to protect our communities from hate<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535092/original/file-20230630-42568-kpnylj.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C36%2C2738%2C1549&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A community event takes place on June 29 outside Hagey Hall at the University of Waterloo to focus on supporting one another and making everyone feel safe after an attack at the university earlier in the week.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nicole Osborne</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>At the end of my interview for my current position as <a href="https://www2.uregina.ca/education/news/faculty-spotlight-dr-j-wallace-skelton/">assistant professor of queer studies in education at the University of Regina</a>, the hiring committee asked me if I had any questions. My first was: “When they come for me — and they will — what will the university do to protect me?”</p>
<p>I’m not paranoid, I’m a realist, and I’m not alone in asking questions like it. It’s also my attempt to be clear that institutions that make their money and reputation from the work of gender scholars are responsible for our safety. </p>
<p>Institutions need to take action to protect scholars and students whose work is feminist, celebratory of trans and nonbinary folks and inclusive of 2SLGBTQIA+ people, reproductive justice and gender justice. </p>
<p>Those of us doing this work have been shouldering the burden of our own and our students’ safety, individually, and often in isolation from each other. We need the burden to be shared — by our institutions, by our colleagues and by you, dear reader. </p>
<p><a href="https://uwimprint.ca/article/stabbing-at-hagey-hall">Collectively, as a society, we failed University of Waterloo</a> philosophy professor <a href="https://www.thestar.com/tr/news/crime/2023/06/29/update-suspect-in-university-of-waterloo-stabbing-identified.html">Katy Fulfer and two of her students on June 28</a>.</p>
<p>Fulfer and her students were stabbed <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/emergency-alert-university-waterloo-stabbing-watsafe-1.6892506">while she taught her gender studies class</a> in what the university described as a “<a href="https://twitter.com/UWaterloo/status/1674812676596289539">hate-motivated attack related to gender expression and gender identity</a>.” </p>
<p>The attack was horrific and unacceptable. The conditions that made it possible — <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/lgtbq-pride-rhetoric-1.6881535">escalation of rhetoric of hate</a> <a href="https://acleddata.com/2022/11/23/update-fact-sheet-anti-lgbt-mobilization-in-the-united-states/">accompanied by hateful and violent actions</a> against 2SLGBTQIA+ people — are deliberate, a manifestation of hate and vitriol that is nurtured by people who feel threatened by this teacher’s and other’s work. </p>
<p>This was not senseless, as in without logic. It unfolded in a climate where a political movement desires to push women, queer, trans and nonbinary people out of public life. </p>
<p>If we only blame the attacker, we fail again because this is not an isolated incident. It is part of a campaign of escalating incidents on university and college campuses, <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/9758155/ottawa-anti-lgbtq-protest/">outside public schools</a>, <a href="https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/2023/06/20/protesters-pack-carman-school-board-meeting-with-book-ban-arguments-on-agenda">inside</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/regina-public-schools-clash-division-pride-inclusion-1.6876273">outside school board meetings</a>. </p>
<h2>Broad responses needed</h2>
<p>Our society’s and universities’ response to this needs to be similarly broad. </p>
<p>First, in keeping with <a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-xpm-2013-apr-07-la-oe-0407-silk-ring-theory-20130407-story.html">Ring Theory</a>, when a specific incident happens, <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/promoting-hope-preventing-suicide/201705/ring-theory-helps-us-bring-comfort-in?amp">we provide care in towards the people most impacted</a>, and allow them to share their feelings and needs outward towards those less impacted. </p>
<p>Fulfer and her students need to be at the centre of that care. Also needing care are others across Canada who do similar work, who teach similar material, who study in similar classes. If you have not yet reached out to colleagues or students, do so now. </p>
<p>Let them know you know what happened, that you suspect they may be impacted, offer what you can (support, to be on call if they need something, to talk about security, to support them moving their class online if they feel it is necessary, to co-work, to listen, to advocate for their needs). Offer what is appropriate for your level of knowledge, power and connection. </p>
<h2>Creating safe work, learning environments</h2>
<p>Next, recognizing that this is not an isolated single incident, we need to think about both how we create safe work and learning environments and how we de-escalate movements of misogyny, homophobia and transphobia. Creating safety takes many forms. </p>
<p>Most powerfully, if you are an educator and you <a href="https://www.facultyfocus.com/articles/equality-inclusion-and-diversity/the-uses-of-feminist-pedagogy-before-during-and-after-the-pandemic">are not already</a> teaching <a href="https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/the-feminist-agenda/episode-13-ileana-jim%C3%A9nez-ZWLxfNQdz3h/">intersectional feminist</a>, <a href="https://www.learningforjustice.org/magazine/summer-2019/teaching-stonewall?utm_source=Learning+for+Justice&utm_campaign=00ec8ddee2-Newsletter-6-27-2023&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a8cea027c3-00ec8ddee2-102212590">2SLGBTQIA+ content in your courses</a>, start doing so now. We all need to be addressing gender issues. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-intersectionality-all-of-who-i-am-105639">What is intersectionality? All of who I am</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Those that wish to do harm can not target all of us at once. We need to do this because our students are encountering hate in all manner of places, and they need our commitment to create safety for them. They need to know that they are not alone in this. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Feet seen crossing blue, pink and white colours of a trans crosswalk on a road." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535103/original/file-20230630-29-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/535103/original/file-20230630-29-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535103/original/file-20230630-29-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535103/original/file-20230630-29-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535103/original/file-20230630-29-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535103/original/file-20230630-29-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/535103/original/file-20230630-29-2e0whd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Being public with support means things like writing public letters and policy statements or painting trans Pride crosswalks. A person walks on a trans Pride flag crosswalk in Calgary in 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Dave Chidley</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Address misogyny, homophobia, transphobia</h2>
<p>Within or beyond universities, when we encounter misogyny, homophobia and transphobia we need to address it, and address it with everyone who was impacted. We need our institutions to be public in their support. Yes, this means public letters, policy statements, flying rainbow flags and <a href="https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/citys-new-rainbow-crosswalk-to-include-transgender-pride-colours/wcm/47eb12f7-a9ef-4f11-b25d-79b7519c04f5/amp/">painting trans Pride crosswalks</a>. </p>
<p>It means engaging those most targeted by the hate, who need to be centred in the planning. It means recognizing that the work we are already doing about our own and our students’ safety is work, and compensating us for it. We should not let only certain professors who are most targeted do additional labour, while those who are not targeted get to use their paid time for research or writing.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/4-ways-white-people-can-be-accountable-for-addressing-anti-black-racism-at-universities-164983">4 ways white people can be accountable for addressing anti-Black racism at universities</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>We need both broad institutional responses and specific ones that meet individual needs. </p>
<h2>More public conversations</h2>
<p>Broadly, our institutions are reflections of our culture. We need a culture shift. We need individual conversations with the people around us, and public conversations in our media, places of worship, businesses and organizations. </p>
<p>We need to make celebration <a href="https://lorimer.ca/childrens/contributor/j-wallace-skelton">of gender diversity, honouring of women and 2SLGBTQIA+ people the culture</a>. We’ve enshrined this in law, in the Charter and in human rights codes, but our practice does not live up to the goals of our legislation. We need all of us to be in this work. We need to create opportunities for people who have been antithetical towards this work to do better, and to change.</p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/01614681221126243">In my own work</a>, I have often felt guided by the words of Supreme Court Justice Beverley McLachlin.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/2030/index.do">Chamberlain v. Surrey School District No. 36</a>, a decision that was about whether it was appropriate to read lesbian and gay picture books in kindergarten (yes, it is). McLachlin wrote: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Exposure to some cognitive dissonance is arguably necessary if children are to be taught what tolerance itself involves. … Children cannot learn this unless they are exposed to views that differ from those they are taught at home.” </p>
</blockquote>
<h2>OK if it feels uncomfortable</h2>
<p>It’s OK if this work is new to you. It’s OK if it feels uncomfortable at first. Do it anyway, and keep doing it and you will get better at it. Figure out your own compelling reasons to do it. Connect with others who are. </p>
<p>As a colleague of mine wrote after reading about the attack, it is OK to be “both afraid and bravely continuing to speak up.” </p>
<p>Universities need to ensure everyone affected is engaged in responses. <a href="https://www.syrusmarcusware.com/art/in-movement">Black</a> and <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/indigenous-leaders-reflect-biggest-stories-2018-1.4958833">Indigenous</a> colleagues, some of whom are also 2SLGBTQIA+, have significant expertise at combating hate. As I have learned from them and with them, resisting hate of all forms is all of our work, and if we do it together — in solidarity, community, in ongoing conversation — we will win.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/208831/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>j wallace skelton is currently working on a SSHRC funded research project researching parent advocates of trans and nonbinary youth. j is the primary consultant at Juxtapose Consulting, but it not taking on further consulting projects at this time. </span></em></p>We need to care for those most affected, and consider both how we create safe work and learning environments, and how we de-escalate movements of misogyny, homophobia and transphobia.j wallace skelton, Assistant professor, Faculty of Education, Queer Studies in Education, University of ReginaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1966912023-06-06T12:31:12Z2023-06-06T12:31:12ZScientists’ political donations reflect polarization in academia – with implications for the public’s trust in science<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/530181/original/file-20230605-25-5v5b99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=175%2C143%2C3722%2C2746&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Under 10% of political donations from academic scholars go to Republican causes.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/political-contributions-super-pacs-and-political-royalty-free-image/1321234653">Douglas Rissing/iStock via Getty Images Plus</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>People who lean left politically reported an <a href="https://apnorc.org/projects/amidst-the-pandemic-confidence-in-the-scientific-community-becomes-increasingly-polarized/">increase in trust in scientists</a> during the COVID-19 pandemic, while those who lean right politically reported much lower levels of trust in scientists. This polarization around scientific issues – from COVID-19 to climate change to evolution – is at its peak since surveys started tracking this question over 50 years ago.</p>
<p><iframe id="dDH8G" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dDH8G/7/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Surveys reveal that people with more education are <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/04/26/a-wider-ideological-gap-between-more-and-less-educated-adults/">more ideologically liberal</a>. And academia has been gradually turning left over the past 40 years. Scientists – the people who produce scientific knowledge – are widely perceived to be on the opposite side of the political spectrum from those who trust science the least. This disparity poses a challenge when communicating important science to the public.</p>
<p>In a recent study, science historian <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=UK9sjJMAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">Naomi Oreskes</a>, environmental social scientist <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=e138rTwAAAAJ&hl=en">Viktoria Cologna</a>, literary critic <a href="https://www.charlietyson.com/">Charlie Tyson</a> <a href="https://www.kaurov.org">and I</a> leveraged public data sets <a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01382-3">to explore the dynamics of scientists’ political leanings</a>. Our analysis of individual political donations confirms that the vast majority of scientists who contribute have supported Democratic candidates. But we contend that this fact doesn’t need to short-circuit effective science communication to the public.</p>
<h2>Digging into individuals’ political donations</h2>
<p>In the United States, all donations to political parties and campaigns must be reported to the Federal Election Committee. That information is <a href="https://www.fec.gov/">published by the FEC on its website</a>, along with the donation amount and date; the donor’s name, address and occupation; and the recipient’s party affiliation. This data allowed us to examine millions of transactions made in the past 40 years.</p>
<p><iframe id="xgAEa" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/xgAEa/4/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01382-3">In our study</a>, we examined researchers in academia, specifically people with titles like “professor,” “faculty,” “scientist” and “lecturer,” as well as scientists in the energy sector. We conducted this analysis by identifying 100,000 scientists based on their self-reported occupation and cross-referencing them with the <a href="https://www.scopus.com/">Elsevier’s Scopus database</a>, which contains information on researchers and their scientific publications. The findings of our study indicate a gradual shift away from the Republican Party among American researchers, both in academia and the industry.</p>
<p>Overall support of the Republican Party, in terms of individual donations from the general public, has slid down over the past 40 years. But this trend is much steeper for scientists and academics than for the overall U.S. population. By 2022, it was hard to find an academic supporting the Republican Party financially, even at <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01382-3/figures/1">Christian colleges and universities</a>. The trend also persists <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01382-3/figures/3">across academic disciplines</a>.</p>
<p><iframe id="0xrLo" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0xrLo/9/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Notably, scientists working at fossil fuel companies have also become more liberal, while their management has remained conservative, based on both groups’ political donations. We suspect this buildup of political polarization within companies may at some point intensify the public conversation about climate change.</p>
<h2>Who shares science messages</h2>
<p>People tend to accept and internalize information delivered by someone they consider trustworthy. Communication scholars call this the “<a href="https://ssir.org/articles/entry/finding_the_right_messenger_for_your_message">trusted messenger</a>” effect. Various factors like socioeconomic status, race and, increasingly, political leanings influence this perceived credibility.</p>
<p>Science communication gets stalled because of what appears to be a positive feedback loop: The more liberal academia gets, the fewer “trusted messengers” can communicate with the half of the U.S. that leans right. Trust in science and scientific institutions among Republicans declines and it gets reflected in their policies; academia, in response, leans even more left.</p>
<p>The increased clustering of scientists away from Republicans risks further damaging conservative Republicans’ trust in science. But we contend there are ways to break out of this loop.</p>
<p>First, academia is not a monolith. While our study may suggest that all academics are liberal, it is important to admit that the data we analyzed – political donations – is only a proxy for what people actually think. We don’t capture every scientist with this method since not everyone donates to political campaigns. In fact, <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2017/05/17/5-facts-about-u-s-political-donations/">most people don’t donate to any candidate at all</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://muse.jhu.edu/book/31449">According to</a> <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2009/07/09/section-4-scientists-politics-and-religion/">surveys</a>, many academics have traditionally considered themselves moderate. The question, then, is how to communicate to the public the diversity of political views in academia, given the degree of current polarization, and how to elevate these other voices.</p>
<p>Second, the evident left leaning of academia <a href="https://social-epistemology.com/2020/08/07/the-american-university-the-politics-of-professors-and-the-narrative-of-liberal-bias-charlie-tyson-and-naomi-oreskes/">is not necessarily proof of a “liberal bias</a>” that <a href="https://areomagazine.com/2018/10/02/academic-grievance-studies-and-the-corruption-of-scholarship/">some people worry is corrupting research</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X14000430">impeding the pursuit of truth</a>. Overall, higher education does appear to have a <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2016/04/26/a-wider-ideological-gap-between-more-and-less-educated-adults/">liberalizing effect on social and political views</a>, but universities also play an important role in the formation of <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691163666/becoming-right">political identity for</a> <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11133-020-09446-z">young conservatives</a>.</p>
<p>We believe that clear data about academia’s left-leaning orientation, as well as understanding the underlying reasons for it, could help interrupt the feedback loop of declining scientific trust.</p>
<p>For now there’s a shortage of centrist and conservative scientists serving as trusted messengers. By engaging in public conversation, these scientists could offer visible alternatives to the anti-scientific stances of Republican elites, while at the same time showing that the scientific world is not homogeneous.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/196691/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alexander Kaurov receives funding from Harvard University. </span></em></p>Public data about individual donors’ political contributions supports the perception that American academia leans left.Alexander Kaurov, Research Associate in History of Science, Harvard UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2059802023-05-25T12:27:37Z2023-05-25T12:27:37ZAmericans are increasingly moving to red, Republican-leaning states – where life is cheaper, but people also die younger<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527818/original/file-20230523-15-2671gg.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">While blue, Democratic states are becoming bluer, red, Republican-leaning states are becoming more conservative. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1332599651/photo/divided-american-flag-in-window.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=YofHukGaSoRcgrB59fBzp47y8zYm91SW5xEaVntqcc4=">Matt Champlin</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The United States is an <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/trust/archive/winter-2021/america-is-exceptional-in-its-political-divide">increasingly polarized country</a> when it comes to politics – but one thing that almost all people want is to live a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/01/25/longevity-centenarians-healthy-living/">long, healthy life</a>.</p>
<p>More and more Americans are moving from <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/states-where-americans-are-moving-florida-texas-north-carolina-south-carolina/">Democratic-leaning blue states to Republican-voting red ones</a>, and one of the effects of this change is that they are relocating to places with lower life expectancy. </p>
<p>Idaho, Montana and Florida, <a href="https://wisevoter.com/state-rankings/red-and-blue-states/">all red states</a>, had the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2023/04/07/population-change-pandemic">greatest population growth</a> among U.S. states between 2020 and 2022. Meanwhile, New York and Illinois, both blue states, and Louisiana, a red state, suffered the biggest population losses. California, another blue state, has experienced significant <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/us/california-population-decline.html">recent population loss</a> as well.</p>
<p>One key reason for this migration is the <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/californias-population-dropped-by-500000-in-two-years-as-exodus-continues/">high cost of living</a> in places like New York and California, compared with the lower cost of living in red states such as <a href="https://www.forbes.com/home-improvement/moving-services/cheapest-states-to-live-in/">Georgia or Indiana</a>. </p>
<p>I am a scholar who <a href="https://writing.ucsb.edu/people/robert-samuels">studies the intersection</a> between politics, media and psychology. I think it is important to note that another trend, though, is that people are largely migrating to places with <a href="https://www.prb.org/resources/liberal-u-s-state-policies-linked-to-longer-lives/">lower life expectancies</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527820/original/file-20230523-23-1oyxlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="An aerial view shows suburban houses, all similar with dark roofs and white exteriors." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527820/original/file-20230523-23-1oyxlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/527820/original/file-20230523-23-1oyxlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527820/original/file-20230523-23-1oyxlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527820/original/file-20230523-23-1oyxlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527820/original/file-20230523-23-1oyxlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527820/original/file-20230523-23-1oyxlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/527820/original/file-20230523-23-1oyxlm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An aerial view of a new housing development in Houston, Texas, which has experienced significant population growth in recent years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/534814446/photo/usa-texas-suburban-housing-developement.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=-4LxrUj_mSjHO3p701SusJwwVyDMVRHBlcGYTrx8A7o=">Brooks Kraft LLC/Corbis via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Understanding demographics</h2>
<p>There is a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/life_expectancy/life_expectancy.htm">large difference in expected life spans</a> for people living in certain states, according to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.</p>
<p>For instance, people born in New York and California – two of the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/richest-states-in-usa">richest states</a> in the country, which largely vote Democratic – have a <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/life_expectancy/life_expectancy.htm">life expectancy</a> of 77.7 and 79 years, respectively. But people in Mississippi and Louisiana – two of the <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/poorest-states">poorest states</a>, which tend to vote Republican – live, on average, until they are <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/life_expectancy/life_expectancy.htm">71.9 and 73.1 years old</a>.</p>
<p>People who live in Republican-leaning states tend to have <a href="https://www.moneygeek.com/living/states-most-reliant-federal-government/">less money</a>, <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/people-in-republican-counties-have-higher-death-rates-than-those-in-democratic-counties/">worse health conditions</a>, higher rates of <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ariannajohnson/2023/04/28/red-states-have-higher-gun-death-rates-than-blue-states-heres-why/?sh=739569121f81">gun-related deaths</a> and <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/least-educated-states">lower levels of education</a> than people living in Democratic states.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/acs-5-year-estimates.html">On average, people in red states have higher rates of poverty</a> than residents of blue states.</p>
<p>Poverty is an indicator for life expectancies in the U.S. – the poorer someone is, the more likely to <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7792745/">die younger</a>. </p>
<p>But there are likely other issues at play in people in red states’ having lower life spans.</p>
<h2>Health differences</h2>
<p>Research in 2020 showed that Americans in blue states tend to live longer than people in red states, <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/04/2072712/0/en/Researchers-say-where-you-live-could-add-years-to-your-life.html">primarily because of state policies</a> on everything from seat belt laws to abortion laws. That research also identified health policies as a major factor. </p>
<p>People in blue states also tend to have <a href="https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/total-population/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D">higher rates of health insurance</a> than people in red states. </p>
<p>Moreover, when looking at the rates of people who are diagnosed with <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/cancer-rates-by-state">cancer in each state</a>, it is clear that people in red states are generally less healthy than people in blue ones. Red-state residents are also more likely to <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/dhdsp/maps/national_maps/hd_all.htm#:%7E:text=Heart%20Disease%20Death%20Rates%2C%20Total%20Population%20Ages%2035%2B&text=The%20map%20shows%20that%20concentrations,%2C%20Kentucky%2C%20Tennessee%20and%20Guam.">die from heart disease</a> than people in blue states.</p>
<p>But health rates vary greatly across racial and ethnic groups. Black and Hispanic people are far more likely than white and Asian people in the U.S. to not have access to <a href="https://www.kff.org/racial-equity-and-health-policy/report/key-data-on-health-and-health-care-by-race-and-ethnicity">quality affordable health care</a>, regardless of their state of residence.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vitalsigns/aahealth/index.html">Black people remain more likely</a> than white people to have high blood pressure and to die from heart disease, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthequity/features/maternal-mortality/index.html">among other health conditions</a>.</p>
<h2>Lower education levels</h2>
<p>Another key factor in this life span trend is that people in red states have <a href="https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/educational-attainment-by-state">lower levels of education</a> than people in blue states.</p>
<p>This matters, since some recent research has shown that education levels are the best <a href="https://news.yale.edu/2020/02/20/want-live-longer-stay-school-study-suggests#:%7E:text=Each%20educational%20step%20obtained%20led,are%20powerful%2C%22%20Roy%20said">predictor of a person’s life span</a> for a variety of complex, interconnected reasons, including an increased likelihood that receiving a higher education will <a href="http://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-019-0055-0">lead to a boost in income</a>. </p>
<p>Experts also often consider race and ethnicity another <a href="https://www.kff.org/racial-equity-and-health-policy/issue-brief/what-is-driving-widening-racial-disparities-in-life-expectancy/:%7E:text=As%20of%202021,%20provisional%20data,Asian%20people%20at%2083.5%20years.">major factor</a>, in part because of <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/unequal-opportunity-race-and-education/">structural inequalities</a> facing people of color that may place access to quality affordable education out of reach, for example. </p>
<p>Lack of education may be the most direct reason for <a href="https://www.routledge.com/Educating-Inequality-Beyond-the-Political-Myths-of-Higher-Education-and/Samuels/p/book/9781138084988">lower incomes and shorter lives</a> – but it is not clear if attaining a higher level of education makes people wealthier, or if people who are born into wealth receive more and better education.</p>
<h2>Are people moving to die young?</h2>
<p>There are other reasons that factor into the complex question of life expectancy, and discrepancies in longevity across states.</p>
<p>One reason identified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, for example, is that there are more gun deaths – <a href="https://www.kff.org/other/issue-brief/do-states-with-easier-access-to-guns-have-more-suicide-deaths-by-firearm/">by homicide and suicide</a> – in red states <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/firearm.htm">than blue states</a>.</p>
<p>People are moving to different states in the U.S. for a variety of reasons – including, in some cases, political ideologies. While blue ZIP codes have been found to be getting bluer, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2022/02/18/1081295373/the-big-sort-americans-move-to-areas-political-alignment">red ones are becoming</a> even more red.</p>
<p>But it is important to keep in mind that data on life spans and health are simply averages, and so there can be a high variation within particular locations.</p>
<p>There are people in red and blue states who defy these statistics – many people living long lives in poor red states, and people dying younger in rich blue ones.</p>
<p>Still, the overall trends are clear. People living in blue states – by and large – tend to live longer, healthier and wealthier lives.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/205980/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Robert Samuels does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Idaho, Montana and Florida had the highest population growth among US states between 2020 and 2022.Robert Samuels, Continuing Lecturer in Writing, University of California, Santa BarbaraLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2046072023-05-02T12:13:12Z2023-05-02T12:13:12ZThe thinking error that makes people susceptible to climate change denial<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523279/original/file-20230427-24-j9qvgl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=422%2C15%2C4418%2C2783&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Expecting black-and-white answers can make it hard to see the truth.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/illustration/gears-in-the-mind-royalty-free-illustration/892833704">bubaone via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Cold spells often bring climate change deniers out in force on social media, with hashtags like <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/nasa-yes-its-freezing-cold-no-that-doesnt-mean-climate-change-is-a-hoax-182933369.html">#ClimateHoax and #ClimateScam</a>. Former President Donald Trump often chimes in, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/01/29/trump-always-dismisses-climate-change-when-its-cold-not-so-fast-experts-say/">repeatedly claiming</a> that each cold snap disproves the existence of global warming.</p>
<p>From a scientific standpoint, these claims of disproof are absurd. Fluctuations in the weather don’t refute clear <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202301">long-term trends in the climate</a>. </p>
<p>Yet many people believe these claims, and the political result has been reduced willingness to take action to mitigate climate change.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3E0a_60PMR8?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Sen. James Inhofe brought a snowball to the Senate floor in February 2015 to argue that because it was cold enough to snow in Washington, D.C., climate change wasn’t real. That year became the hottest on record and has since been surpassed.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Why are so many people susceptible to this type of disinformation? <a href="https://psychsciences.case.edu/people/other-faculty/">My field</a>, psychology, can help explain – and help people avoid being misled.</p>
<h2>The allure of black-and-white thinking</h2>
<p>Close examination of the arguments made by climate change deniers reveals the same mistake made over and over again. That mistake is the cognitive error known as black-and-white thinking, also called dichotomous and all-or-none thinking. As I explain in my book “<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Finding-Goldilocks-Creating-Personal-Relationships/dp/B08M8DS76S">Finding Goldilocks</a>,” black-and-white thinking is a source of dysfunction in mental health, relationships – and politics.</p>
<p>People are often susceptible to it because in many areas of life, dichotomous thinking does something helpful: It simplifies the world.</p>
<p>Binaries are easy to handle because there are only two possibilities to consider. When people face a spectrum of possibilities and nuance, they have to exert more mental effort. But when that spectrum is polarized into pairs of opposites, choices are clear and dramatic.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Image of a person showing arrows pointing in opposite directions the person might take." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523335/original/file-20230427-30-ykiwpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523335/original/file-20230427-30-ykiwpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523335/original/file-20230427-30-ykiwpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523335/original/file-20230427-30-ykiwpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523335/original/file-20230427-30-ykiwpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523335/original/file-20230427-30-ykiwpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523335/original/file-20230427-30-ykiwpt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Most things don’t fall neatly into only two choices.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/standing-man-with-two-choices-royalty-free-image/155131774">eyetoeyePIX via Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This mental labor-saving device is practical in many everyday situations, but it is a poor tool for understanding complicated realities – and the climate is complicated.</p>
<p>Sometimes, people divide the spectrum in asymmetric ways, with one side much larger than the other. For example, perfectionists often categorize their work as either perfect or unsatisfactory, so even good and very good outcomes are <a href="https://www.guilford.com/books/Cognitive-Behavioral-Treatment-of-Perfectionism/Egan-Wade-Shafran-Antony/9781462527649/authors">lumped together with poor ones</a> in the unsatisfactory category. In dichotomous thinking like this, a single exception can tip a person’s view to one side. It’s like a pass/fail grading system in which 100% earns a pass and everything else gets an F.</p>
<p>With a grading system like this, it’s not surprising that opponents of climate action have found ways to reject global warming research, despite the overwhelming evidence.</p>
<p>Here’s how they do it:</p>
<h2>The all-or-nothing problem</h2>
<p>Climate change deniers simplify the spectrum of possible scientific consensus into two categories: 100% agreement or no consensus at all. If it’s not one, it’s the other.</p>
<p>A 2021 review of thousands of climate science papers and conference proceedings concluded that over 99% of studies have found that burning <a href="https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2966">fossil fuels warms the planet</a>. That’s not good enough for some skeptics. If they find one contrarian scientist somewhere, they categorize the idea of human-caused global warming as controversial and <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/freeman_dyson_takes_on_the_climate_establishment">conclude that there is no basis for action</a>.</p>
<p>Powerful economic interests are at work here: The fossil fuel industry has funded disinformation campaigns for years to <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2021/09/oil-companies-discourage-climate-action-study-says">create this kind of doubt about climate change</a>, despite <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-big-oil-knew-about-climate-change-in-its-own-words-170642">knowing that their products cause it and the consequences</a>. Members of Congress have <a href="https://www.eenews.net/articles/trumps-climate-denial-shapes-house-gop-backbench/">used that disinformation</a> to block or weaken federal policies that could slow climate change.</p>
<h2>Expecting a straight line in a variable world</h2>
<p>In another example of black-and-white thinking, deniers argue that if global temperatures are not increasing at a perfectly consistent rate, there is no such thing as global warming. </p>
<p>However, complex variables never change in a uniform way; they wiggle up and down in the short term even when exhibiting long-term trends. Most business data, such as revenues, profits and stock prices, do this too, with short-term fluctuations contained in long-term trends.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Charts showing Apple's changing stock price and global temperatures over time. Both have a saw-tooth pattern." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523304/original/file-20230427-18-w7d3zk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523304/original/file-20230427-18-w7d3zk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523304/original/file-20230427-18-w7d3zk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523304/original/file-20230427-18-w7d3zk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=437&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523304/original/file-20230427-18-w7d3zk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523304/original/file-20230427-18-w7d3zk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523304/original/file-20230427-18-w7d3zk.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=550&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">These two graphs have the same form: a long-term trend of major increase within which there are short-term fluctuations.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/">CC BY-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mistaking a cold snap for disproof of climate change is like mistaking <a href="https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-value">a bad month for Apple stock</a> for proof that Apple isn’t a good long-term investment. This error results from homing in on a tiny slice of the graph and ignoring the rest.</p>
<h2>Failing to examine the gray area</h2>
<p>Climate change deniers also mistakenly cite correlations below 100% as evidence against human-caused global warming. They triumphantly point out that sunspots and volcanic eruptions also affect the climate, even though evidence shows both have <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">very little influence on long-term temperature rise</a> in comparison to greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>In essence, deniers argue that if fossil fuel burning is not all-important, it’s unimportant. They miss the gray area in between: Greenhouse gases are indeed just one factor warming the planet, but they’re the most important one and the factor humans can influence.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Charts showing impact of different forces on temperature. Natural sources have little variation, but the upward swing of temperatures corresponds closely with rising greenhouse gas emissions." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523071/original/file-20230426-1510-itdelq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/523071/original/file-20230426-1510-itdelq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523071/original/file-20230426-1510-itdelq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523071/original/file-20230426-1510-itdelq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=738&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523071/original/file-20230426-1510-itdelq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523071/original/file-20230426-1510-itdelq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/523071/original/file-20230426-1510-itdelq.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=927&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Influences on global temperature over time.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/">4th National Climate Assessment</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>‘The climate has always been changing’ – but not like this</h2>
<p>As increases in global temperatures have become obvious, some climate change skeptics have switched from denying them to reframing them.</p>
<p>Their oft-repeated line, “The climate has always been changing,” typically delivered with an air of patient wisdom, is based on a striking lack of knowledge about the <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/">evidence from climate research</a>.</p>
<p>Their reasoning is based on an invalid binary: Either the climate is changing or it’s not, and since it’s always been changing, there is nothing new here and no cause for concern.</p>
<p>However, the current warming is on par with <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1228026">nothing humans have ever seen</a>, and intense warming events in the distant past were planetwide <a href="https://www.washington.edu/news/2018/12/06/biggest-extinction-in-earths-history-caused-by-global-warming-leaving-ocean-animals-gasping-for-breath/">disasters that caused massive extinctions</a> – something we do not want to repeat.</p>
<p>As humanity faces the challenge of global warming, we need to use all our cognitive resources. Recognizing the thinking error at the root of climate change denial could disarm objections to climate research and make science the basis of our efforts to preserve a hospitable environment for our future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jeremy P. Shapiro does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>A psychologist explains how opponents of climate policies use a common thinking error to manipulate the public – and why people are so susceptible.Jeremy P. Shapiro, Adjunct Assistant Professor of Psychological Sciences, Case Western Reserve UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1995742023-04-05T12:27:28Z2023-04-05T12:27:28ZYour political rivals aren’t as bad as you think – here’s how misunderstandings amplify hostility<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518276/original/file-20230329-25-92m7td.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Misunderstanding can play a role in people's dislike of others who have different beliefs. </span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1436162554/photo/polarization-in-the-united-states.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=TTV0L6lt-9_cdIZRVfdJ6jqoygZpbYZ5_vSeawrgExA=">wildpixel/Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene drew raised eyebrows when she suggested on Presidents Day that the United States pursue a “national divorce.”</p>
<p>Even in an era of seemingly ever-growing <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abe1715">political polarization</a> – and despite Taylor Greene’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-technology-las-vegas-mass-shooting-media-social-media-700f28747d856a9bad22a59674a9afe6">record of making controversial statements</a> – the proposal <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3870038-greene-stirs-up-political-storm-with-national-divorce-comments/">shocked members of both political parties</a>.</p>
<p>“The last thing I ever want to see in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/representative-marjorie-taylor-greene-split-united-states-congress-twitter-2023-2">America is a civil war</a>. Everyone I know would never want that – but it’s going that direction, and we have to do something about it,” Taylor Greene said in a follow-up interview.</p>
<p>“Everyone I talk to is fed up with being bullied by the left, abused by the left, and disrespected by the left.” </p>
<p>It seems safe to say that most left-leaning people would be puzzled by these accusations. And Taylor Greene certainly didn’t indicate that she understands the left’s perspective on causes of U.S. political conflict. </p>
<p>It’s intuitive that misunderstandings – like these – and hostility often go hand in hand, in <a href="https://righteousmind.com/about-the-book/">both political</a> and <a href="https://www.mheducation.com/highered/product/interpersonal-conflict-hocker-berry/M9781260836950.html">nonpolitical conflicts</a>. </p>
<p>And yet people don’t usually think that their own emotions can be downright wrong, the way, say, their positions on a factual issue can be incorrect. Is it possible for a feeling to be a mistake? </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=2WzjmrsAAAAJ&hl=en">I am a behavioral economist</a> who studies biases in belief formation, and in my forthcoming book, “<a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262047500/undue-hate/">Undue Hate</a>,” I argue that we indeed tend to excessively dislike people we disagree with – on both political and nonpolitical topics – for a variety of reasons.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518808/original/file-20230331-18-pa1ll9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Two women stand in front of American flags and wag their fingers at a person standing close to them on the street." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518808/original/file-20230331-18-pa1ll9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518808/original/file-20230331-18-pa1ll9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518808/original/file-20230331-18-pa1ll9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518808/original/file-20230331-18-pa1ll9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=591&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518808/original/file-20230331-18-pa1ll9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518808/original/file-20230331-18-pa1ll9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518808/original/file-20230331-18-pa1ll9.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=743&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Supporters of then-President Donald Trump clash with anti-Trump protesters in New York City in 2017.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/679495258/photo/anti-trump-protesters-demonstrate-in-new-york-as-the-president-attends-event-on-intrepid.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=gi&k=20&c=bFgWnL0piyS_I4_UA3Rhafogt7wkLOwXqu24DzN2etc=">Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>When disliking another person is a mistake</h2>
<p>Suppose Jane, a Democrat, overestimates the likelihood her Republican neighbor Joe takes bad actions or has bad opinions – by whatever Jane considers “bad.” For example, Jane might overestimate Joe’s opposition to gun control – or overestimate how much hostility Joe feels toward her. </p>
<p>These beliefs likely contribute to Jane’s negative feelings toward Joe. If so, since these beliefs are mistaken, then Jane would dislike Joe more than she should – by her own standards. </p>
<p>In fact, people in general have a tendency to make this mistake when disagreeing with others for many reasons. I call this tendency “affective polarization bias,” since it’s a bias toward excessive affective polarization. (“<a href="https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034">Affective polarization</a>” is the technical term for emotionally hostile polarization.)</p>
<p>To look for evidence of this bias, I review studies of the accuracy of people’s beliefs about opinions held by members of the other political party. I also examine the accuracy of beliefs about the selfishness of choices by people in the other party in experiments with monetary stakes.</p>
<p>My research shows that people are indeed consistently too pessimistic about their partisan counterparts. On both sides, people tend to overestimate the other side’s extremism, hostility, interest in political violence and selfishness. And the most affectively polarized people make the biggest mistakes.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518294/original/file-20230329-26-xw21aq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman wears a red coat and a face mask that says 'end abortion.' She walks down a hallway with men behind her, also wearing masks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518294/original/file-20230329-26-xw21aq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/518294/original/file-20230329-26-xw21aq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518294/original/file-20230329-26-xw21aq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518294/original/file-20230329-26-xw21aq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518294/original/file-20230329-26-xw21aq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518294/original/file-20230329-26-xw21aq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/518294/original/file-20230329-26-xw21aq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rep. Marjorie Taylor-Greene walks in the U.S. Capitol in February 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://media.gettyimages.com/id/1300197674/photo/house-to-vote-on-removal-of-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-from-committees.jpg?s=612x612&w=gi&k=20&c=THoB--L95402xltC07Clv0OQEti6np8E7Dn_uhqOPbA=">Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Explanations</h2>
<p>Although “affective polarization bias” is a new term, the concept of undue dislike is intuitive for most people. </p>
<p>The media environment – specifically <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/H/bo16468853.html">the proliferation of cable and online news</a> as well as <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/frenemies/00D051D46BC4CDB2D322EE6A1CEA6791">social media</a> – is a common explanation for recent growth in political hostility, and has likely also led to growth in undue dislike.</p>
<p>Citizens are exposed to more polarizing information today than in decades past – not just on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/10584600802426965">cable TV, online</a>, and on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/23808985.2021.1976070">social media</a>, but also in person as our social networks <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjr044">offline are particularly ideologically segregated</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01066-z">more so than ever</a>. As a result, people spend more time talking to others who are like-minded about politics, in addition to getting more like-minded news. </p>
<p>Although <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691178707/not-born-yesterday">people don’t believe everything they hear</a>, they do <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/pops.12797">err toward credulity</a>, especially when encountering information <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.30.3.141">they wish to believe is true</a> – like information about the opposition party’s character flaws, since this supports the superiority of our own party. </p>
<p>In the U.S., <a href="https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo27527354.html">strengthened partisan identity</a>
has been on the rise because of <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Why-Were-Polarized/Ezra-Klein/9781476700366">the merging of partisan identities with other identities</a> – like someone’s cultural or ethnic background. This has also increased people’s motivation to hold beliefs demonizing the opposition. </p>
<p>What’s more, there are several other important causes of undue dislike toward our rivals stemming from fundamental cognitive errors.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.harpercollins.com/products/perfectly-confident-don-a-moore?variant=32127540953122">Overconfidence</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691618769855">naive realism</a> – thinking our tastes are objective truths – make us overestimate the chance that those who disagree with us on just about anything are doing something wrong. As a result we overestimate the other side’s poor judgment and bad motives.</p>
<p>“<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/002210317790049X">False consensus</a>” can make us overestimate how much others actually agree with us. This in turn makes us too skeptical of the sincerity of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12421">people who express different viewpoints</a>. </p>
<p>Last and not least, <a href="https://www.thebulwark.com/how-tit-for-tat-game-theory-has-hacked-politics/">strategic retaliation</a> in conjunction with our biases, limited memories and limited foresight is a recipe for escalating undue hostility.</p>
<h2>Correcting mistakes</h2>
<p>The good news is that mistakes can be corrected. We can undo hate. More and more <a href="https://polarizationresearchlab.org/">research efforts</a> are underway to better <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00573-5">understand these mistakes</a> – and to correct them, with <a href="https://www.strengtheningdemocracychallenge.org/paper">impressive success</a>. </p>
<p><a href="http://braverangels.org/">Many different</a> <a href="https://commongroundcommittee.org/">nonprofit groups</a> are also working to <a href="https://www.bridgealliance.us/">bring political opponents together</a> and to correct misconceptions about the other side. Other scholars and <a href="https://techandsocialcohesion.org/">organizations are working</a> to make social media less polarizing. </p>
<p>But as infeasible as it might seem, America may need a bipartisan, top-down effort to have a shot at significantly decreasing unwarranted hatred in the short run. </p>
<p>In the meantime, the next time you feel hate – remind yourself it’s probably partly undue.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199574/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniel F. Stone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>People tend not to think that their own emotions could simply be wrong. But research shows that people excessively dislike others who disagree with them.Daniel F. Stone, Associate Professor of Economics, Bowdoin CollegeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2015442023-03-19T11:51:48Z2023-03-19T11:51:48ZWe can’t fight authoritarianism without understanding populism’s allure<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515015/original/file-20230313-2080-5bov4e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3340%2C2135&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former President Donald Trump reacts to the crowd after he finished speaking at a campaign rally in support of Sen. Marco Rubio in Miami in November.
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Populists across the globe <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/05/number-of-populist-world-leaders-at-20-year-low">have had a rough couple of years</a>.</p>
<p>Donald Trump in the United States, Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil and Boris Johnson in the United Kingdom are no longer in power. Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-duterte-idUSKBN1JW28C">respected his country’s constitutional term limit</a> and Mexico’s <a href="https://apnews.com/article/politics-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-mexico-government-caribbean-bb54946eeded89a22445ede82e697619">Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador is stepping down</a> at the end of his presidency too. </p>
<p>Even Canada’s Pierre Poilievre <a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/poilievre-dismisses-claims-he-spoke-to-controversial-german-politician-as-categorically-false-1.6291288">chastised his MPs</a> for meeting with a German far-right politician. </p>
<p>But is populism over? Hardly. </p>
<p>Populist politicians of the most recent wave were lucky. Their rule was based on oversized personalities with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12510">lots of charisma</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-populism-has-an-enduring-and-ominous-appeal-199065">Why populism has an enduring and ominous appeal</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The leaders of the current phase, however, are smarter and their Machiavellian ambitions grander. In the U.S., a dozen or more newly elected congressional ultra-rightists <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/170441/ron-desantis-presidency-even-worse-trump">are angling</a> to replace Trump at the head of the Republican Party at the first opportunity.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A protester holds up a sign with a caricature of Donald Trump behind bars." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515011/original/file-20230313-2080-zuzr4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Protesters stand in front of Trump Tower in New York in August 2022 demanding his indictment for various alleged misdeeds.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Seth Wenig)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Populism 2.0</h2>
<p>The focused populism of 2023 is light years away from the unexpected successes of 2016. The newest class of right-wing populists aims not only to dismantle the guardrails of democracy, but also the most fundamental principles of the rule of law. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.demdigest.org/has-populism-won-the-war-on-liberal-democracy/">This attack is happening</a> in many countries. Populists are moving fast and using targeted strategies to subordinate the legal order to authoritarian rule. </p>
<p>The attack on judicial independence <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/23/israel-judicial-reform-protests-netanyahu-government-supreme-court/">in Israel</a>, the violent occupation of the Supreme Court and Houses of Parliament <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-supreme-court-orders-removal-of-brasilia-governor-ibaneis-rocha-after-protests-11673270708">in Brazil</a>, the arrest and intimidation of journalists <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/18/indian-journalists-bbc-raid-media">in India</a> and the imprisonment of thousands of Russians opposed to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ilya-yashin-valdimir-putin-critic-prison-sentence-ukraine-war-criticism/">Vladimir Putin’s murderous invasion of Ukraine</a> all happened in the past year. </p>
<p>Recent surveys have shown that citizens in democracies around the world increasingly believe that both government and the media are “<a href="https://www.edelman.com/trust/2022-trust-barometer">divisive forces in society</a>.” </p>
<p>Policy experts <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19063265">don’t yet know</a> if populism is a cause or a symptom of polarization. Regardless, trust in the democratic process is eroding.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="A row of women dressed in red robes and white bonnets stand in a row in front of skyscrapers at dusk." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515029/original/file-20230313-22-as9frt.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Israeli women’s rights activists in Tel Aviv dressed as characters in the popular television series ‘The Handmaid’s Tale’ protest plans by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to overhaul the judicial system.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The ‘fascistic individual’</h2>
<p>In his 1950 book <em>The Authoritarian Personality</em>, German sociologist Theodor Adorno argues there’s an inherent desire for dominance deep in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/nov/03/grand-hotel-abyss-frankfurt-school-adorno-benjamin-stuart-jeffries-review">human psyche</a>. Adorno was ahead of his time in exploring the psychology of the “potentially fascistic individual” lying dormant within us.</p>
<p>More than 70 years later, social scientists still haven’t explained the magnetism of the abyss — a term describing some people’s willingness to embrace reckless policies regardless of the explosive consequences for their societies. </p>
<p>To come to terms with this capacity for delusion, contemporary psychologists have returned to the idea that there are certain ways of thinking that create a warped world view. </p>
<p>Research into Machiavellianism, narcissism and psychopathy, the so-called <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/ajpy.12198">Dark Triad</a> of anti-social personality traits, draws upon Adorno’s important insights. Social scientists are now identifying the link between a vindictive world view and political extremism, online abuse and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/22/opinion/democrats-republicans-education-racial-resentment.html">hate speech</a>. </p>
<h2>The masks of command</h2>
<p>Each authoritarian leader is different, bound only by their anti-liberalism, Dark Triad traits and their celebration as the ringleader of a populist circus. </p>
<p>In our recent book, <a href="https://ecwpress.com/products/has-populism-won"><em>Has Populism Won?</em></a>, we show how charismatic leaders encourage a form of totalitarianism in which blind allegiance creates a feeling of partisan belonging. To carry it off, leaders wear what we call “masks of command” to rally their followers. </p>
<p>In our assessment, leaders who spin webs of lies wear the mask of “conspirator-in-chief.” The conspirator uses favours, relationships and money to destabilize institutions and erode the norms that stand in the way of autocracy. </p>
<p>Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu relies upon the commander’s mask of “first citizen of the empire” when he argues that the solution to societal polarization is more personalized power. </p>
<p>The first citizen always desires fewer checks and balances. For example, Netanyahu wants to politicize judicial appointments and reduce the oversight of Israel’s Supreme Court. It’s all aimed at <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/20/what-are-israels-judicial-changes-causing-uproar">undermining the autonomy of judges</a> who have the responsibility to protect Israel’s constitution.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A woman holds up a sign depicting two men kissing." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515032/original/file-20230313-3089-allltw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An anti-Boris Johnson protester holds up a placard with artwork of him and Donald Trump in London in 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Johnson and Trump frequently wore the aggressive mask of “national defender.” As false tribunes of the people, they <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/boris-johnson-donald-trump-immigration-plan-british-election-1472333">weaponized immigration</a> to their own advantage.</p>
<p>For Trump, America was beset by armies of refugees from Latin America. For Johnson, the U.K. needed to raise the drawbridge on migrants from eastern Europe. The zealot national defender always exaggerates external threats. </p>
<p>The “holy crusader” is even more ambitious because he believes he can change the entire international order to return his nation to greatness. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A balding man sit in a carved wooden chair." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/515041/original/file-20230313-2800-7ncuu4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting via videoconference outside Moscow on March 3, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Mikhail Metzel, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, Putin is a warmonger who uses imperialistic belligerence to disguise his nation’s decline. He aggressively sells the delusion of a Eurasian century. </p>
<p>Backed by China, he shadow-boxes with Russia’s old foe, western capitalism, to restore Moscow’s <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/world-putin-wants-fiona-hill-angela-stent">superpower status</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/russias-imperial-mindset-dates-back-centuries-and-it-is-here-to-stay-95832">Russia's imperial mindset dates back centuries – and it is here to stay</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>The spectacle of authoritarianism</h2>
<p>These politicians play to jaded electorates and captive audiences who reward grandiosity and xenophobia because partisanship fills the void left by an absence of genuine national community. </p>
<p>These shamanistic masks have long been a mainstay of populists.</p>
<p>To many contemporary observers, the idea of an authoritarian personality <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2010.508901">is antiquated</a>. We disagree. What Adorno and his contemporaries did was ground-breaking. They clarified why some people prefer authoritarianism even when it runs counter <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/cutting-edge-leadership/201712/why-do-people-vote-against-their-best-interests">to their interests</a>. </p>
<p>So how to oppose extremism?</p>
<p>As political scientists, we believe democracy only works when it is safeguarded by a robust system of checks and balances, masses of engaged citizens and an independent judiciary. Every populist who promises to destroy the government to save it is lying for personal gain. It’s as simple as that. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/rallying-cry-youth-must-stand-up-to-defend-democracy-81003">Rallying cry: Youth must stand up to defend democracy</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>In his book <a href="https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780805089134/thespiritofdemocracy"><em>The Spirit of Democracy</em></a>, political scientist Larry Diamond of Stanford University argues that the fate of democracy depends on the passion of the people to defend it from its enemies. But today, the people’s passion is in the grips of hard-right populists.</p>
<p>Canada is still experiencing the shock waves of the <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-police-convoy-inquiry-poec-documents-1.6684923">so-called freedom convoy</a>. </p>
<p>Yet we shouldn’t be complacent to the immediate reality that more radioactive fallout from American politics is heading our way. It demands an urgent response.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/201544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The newest class of right-wing populists aims to not only dismantle the guardrails of democracy, but also the most fundamental principles of the rule of law. We must prepare.Daniel Drache, Professor emeritus, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaMarc D. Froese, Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program, Burman UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1930552023-03-02T13:23:29Z2023-03-02T13:23:29ZWhy can’t Americans agree on, well, nearly anything? Philosophy has some answers<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/512734/original/file-20230228-22-sn8t3f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=3%2C10%2C2302%2C1285&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Social media has made yelling past each other all the easier.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/collage-of-two-people-standing-back-to-back-royalty-free-image/1343278471?phrase=disagreement%20megaphone&adppopup=true">We Are/DigitalVision via Getty Images</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Does wearing a mask stop the spread of COVID-19? Is climate change driven primarily by human-made emissions? With these kinds of issues dividing the public, it sometimes feels as if Americans are losing our ability to agree about basic facts of the world. There have been <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2009/02/evolution-social-legal-dimensions.pdf">widespread disagreements</a> about matters of seemingly objective fact in the past, yet the number of recent examples can make it feel as though our shared sense of reality is shrinking.</p>
<p>As <a href="https://udayton.edu/directory/law/steiner_dillon_james.php">a law professor</a>, I’ve written about legal challenges to <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3334657">vaccination requirements</a> and <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3720083">COVID-19 restrictions</a>, as well as <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550212">what counts as “truth</a>” in court. In other words, I spend a lot of time mulling over how people define truth, and why U.S. society has such a hard time agreeing on it these days. </p>
<p>There are two ideas that can help us think about polarization on matters of fact. The first, “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3334657">epistemic pluralism</a>,” helps describe U.S. society today, and how we got here. The second, “<a href="https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-137-52410-2_7">epistemic dependence</a>,” can help us reflect on where our knowledge comes from in the first place.</p>
<h2>Many takes on ‘truth’</h2>
<p>I define <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3334657">epistemic pluralism</a> as a persistent state of public disagreement about empirical facts.</p>
<p>When it comes to things that can be proved or disproved, it’s easy to think that everyone could come to the same factual conclusions, if only they had equal access to the same information – which, after all, is more freely available today than at any point in human history. But while the inequality of access to information plays a role, it is not so simple: Psychological, social and political factors also contribute to epistemic pluralism.</p>
<p>For example, psychologist and law professor <a href="https://law.yale.edu/dan-m-kahan">Dan Kahan</a> and his collaborators have described two phenomena that affect the ways in which people form different beliefs from the same information. </p>
<p>The first is called “<a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/kahan_hoffman_braman.pdf">identity-protective cognition</a>.” This describes how individuals are motivated to adopt the empirical beliefs of groups they identify with in order to signal that they belong.</p>
<p>The second is “<a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1549444">cultural cognition</a>”: people tend to say that a behavior has a greater risk of harm if they disapprove of the behavior for other reasons – handgun regulation and nuclear waste disposal, for example.</p>
<p>These effects are not reduced by intelligence, access to information, or education. Indeed, greater scientific literacy and mathematical ability have been shown to actually increase polarization on scientific issues that have been politicized, such as the <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2459057">cause of climate change</a> or the <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2319992">benefits of gun control</a>. Higher ability in these areas appears to boost people’s ability to interpret the available evidence in favor of their preferred conclusions. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511243/original/file-20230220-16-aay1g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man in a dark jacket and a woman in a green one appear to argue in front of a gate outside." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511243/original/file-20230220-16-aay1g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511243/original/file-20230220-16-aay1g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511243/original/file-20230220-16-aay1g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511243/original/file-20230220-16-aay1g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511243/original/file-20230220-16-aay1g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511243/original/file-20230220-16-aay1g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511243/original/file-20230220-16-aay1g7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=500&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Psychological and social factors shape which evidence we want to believe.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/couple-having-argument-in-a-hard-quarrel-outdoors-royalty-free-image/569569553?phrase=disagreement&adppopup=true">doble.d/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>Beyond these psychological factors, there is another major source of epistemic pluralism. In a society characterized by freedom of conscience and freedom of expression, individuals bear “burdens of judgment,” as the American <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/political-liberalism/9780231130899">philosopher John Rawls wrote</a>. Without the government or an official church telling people what to think, we all have to decide for ourselves – and that inevitably leads to a diversity of moral viewpoints.</p>
<p>Although Rawls was focused on pluralism of moral values, the same is true of beliefs about matters of fact. In the U.S., legal rules and social norms attempt to ensure that <a href="https://reason.com/volokh/2020/06/14/no-official-high-or-petty-can-prescribe-what-shall-be-orthodox/">the state cannot constrain</a> an individual’s freedom of belief, whether that be about moral values or empirical facts. </p>
<p>This intellectual freedom contributes to epistemic pluralism. So do factors such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098018815049">educational inequalities</a>, the proliferation of information from untrustworthy sources online, and misinformation campaigns. All together, they provide ample opportunity for people’s shared sense of reality <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691175515/republic">to fragment</a>.</p>
<h2>Knowledge takes trust</h2>
<p>Another contributor to epistemic pluralism is just how specialized human knowledge has become. No one person could hope to acquire the sum total of all knowledge in a single lifetime. This brings us to the second relevant concept: <a href="https://www.pdcnet.org/jphil/content/jphil_1985_0082_0007_0335_0349">epistemic dependence</a>. </p>
<p>Knowledge is almost never acquired firsthand, but transmitted by some trusted source. To take a simple example, how do you know who the first president of the United States was? No one alive today witnessed the first presidential inauguration. You could go to the National Archives and <a href="https://catalog.archives.gov/id/1634180">ask to see records</a>, but hardly anyone does that. Instead, Americans learned from an elementary school teacher that George Washington was the first president, and we accept that fact because of the teacher’s epistemic authority. </p>
<p>There’s nothing wrong with this; everyone gets most knowledge that way. There’s simply too much knowledge for anyone to verify independently all the facts on which we routinely rely.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511244/original/file-20230220-14-jtvwb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A blond teacher shows young children sitting on the floor a poster about planets." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511244/original/file-20230220-14-jtvwb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/511244/original/file-20230220-14-jtvwb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511244/original/file-20230220-14-jtvwb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511244/original/file-20230220-14-jtvwb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=407&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511244/original/file-20230220-14-jtvwb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511244/original/file-20230220-14-jtvwb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/511244/original/file-20230220-14-jtvwb5.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=511&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Learning takes trust – but who deserves that trust?</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/high-angle-view-of-pre-school-teacher-showing-royalty-free-image/1345093602?phrase=teacher&adppopup=true">Halfpoint Images/Moment via Getty Images</a></span>
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<p>This is true even in highly specialized areas. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040028">Replication is essential to science</a>, but scientists don’t personally replicate every experiment relevant to their field. Even <a href="https://discover.hsp.org/Record/dc-9792/Description#tabnav">Sir Isaac Newton</a> famously said that his contributions to physics were possible only “by standing on the shoulders of giants.”</p>
<p>However, this raises a tricky problem: Who has sufficient epistemic authority to qualify as an expert on a particular topic? Much of the erosion of our shared reality in recent years seems to be driven by disagreement about whom to believe. </p>
<p>Whom should a nonexpert believe about whether a COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective? Whom should a Georgia voter believe about the legitimacy of their state’s results in the 2020 election: <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/sidney-powell-amends-court-filing-that-said-georgia-votes-were-flipped-to-trump.html">Sidney Powell</a>, an attorney who helped Donald Trump’s legal team try to overturn the 2020 election, or Georgia Secretary of State <a href="https://www.gpb.org/news/2020/11/20/raffensperger-georgia-certified-election-because-numbers-dont-lie">Brad Raffensperger</a>?</p>
<p>The problem in these and other cases is that most people are unable to determine the truth of these matters on their own, yet they are also unable to agree on <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1933-1592.2001.tb00093.x">which experts to trust</a>. </p>
<h2>Curious ‘scouts’</h2>
<p>There isn’t a simple solution to this problem. But there may be rays of hope.</p>
<p>Intelligence alone doesn’t decrease people’s tendency to let their group identities sway their view of facts, according to Kahan and his colleagues – but very curious people tend to be <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12396">more resistant</a> to its effects.</p>
<p>Rationality researcher Julia Galef has written about how adopting a “<a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/555240/the-scout-mindset-by-julia-galef/">scout</a>” mindset rather than a “soldier’s” can help guard against the psychological factors that can lead our reasoning astray. In her description, a soldier thinker seeks information to use as ammunition against enemies, while a scout approaches the world with the goal of forming an accurate mental model of reality.</p>
<p>There are many forces pulling our collective understandings of the world apart; with some effort, however, we can try to reestablish our common ground.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/193055/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Steiner-Dillon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Two concepts can help explain why society seems increasingly unable to agree on basic facts.James Steiner-Dillon, Associate Professor of Law, University of DaytonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1999392023-02-16T15:34:55Z2023-02-16T15:34:55ZLoneliness is making us physically sick, but social prescribing can treat it – podcast<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510164/original/file-20230214-17-7ve30s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3691%2C2458&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Loneliness around the world is growing as a result of how our lives are structured.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Social isolation and loneliness are increasingly becoming societal problems, as they contribute to polarization and affect our physical health. Mental health professionals, community advocates and health-care providers have been raising the alarm about this impending crisis. </p>
<p>The pandemic may have exacerbated social isolation and the subsequent feelings of loneliness, but it did not invent it. In 2018, two years before the pandemic, the United Kingdom <a href="https://time.com/5248016/tracey-crouch-uk-loneliness-minister/">created a ministerial portfolio for loneliness</a>. Japan, where <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/03/19/national/social-issues/loneliness-survey-pandemic/">nearly 40 per cent of the population report experiencing loneliness</a>, <a href="https://omf.org/us/japan-appoints-minister-of-loneliness-can-he-solve-the-loneliness-problem/">began a similar position in 2021</a>.</p>
<p>In this episode of <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/the-conversation-weekly-98901">The Conversation Weekly</a> podcast, we speak to three researchers who invite us to more deeply consider loneliness and social isolation, and their impacts on our health and society. </p>
<iframe src="https://embed.acast.com/60087127b9687759d637bade/63edf3801bb1eb001167fccc" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="190px"></iframe>
<p><iframe id="tc-infographic-561" class="tc-infographic" height="100" src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/infographics/561/4fbbd099d631750693d02bac632430b71b37cd5f/site/index.html" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>Ananya Chakravarti is an associate professor of history at Georgetown University in Washington in the U.S. As a historian of emotions, Chakravarti has studied <a href="https://doi.org/10.1086/690703">expressions of loneliness in Indian devotional poetry</a>. </p>
<p>“If you read the poetry, it’s often expressing a deep and acute pain. Of course, it’s within that sense of being separated from the beloved that the world opens up spiritually for the devotee. So it’s an interesting kind of experience, in that sense of torment caused through separation.”</p>
<p>In studying the history of loneliness, Chakravarti has found as opposed to the loneliness of choosing solitude for religious or creative purposes, today’s loneliness is a product of our modern lives.</p>
<p>“We seem to live in this highly globalized world,” she points out, and “there’s so many more ways to be connected. Travel is so much easier. You have social media. And yet, actual experiences of loneliness are probably very much on the rise if you look at the cultural production around loneliness as a very modern phenomenon.”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510389/original/file-20230215-28-l4zxez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="a man sits on steps with his hand held to his mouth" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510389/original/file-20230215-28-l4zxez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/510389/original/file-20230215-28-l4zxez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510389/original/file-20230215-28-l4zxez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510389/original/file-20230215-28-l4zxez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510389/original/file-20230215-28-l4zxez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510389/original/file-20230215-28-l4zxez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/510389/original/file-20230215-28-l4zxez.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">While loneliness is experienced by individuals, its causes are structural.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(Shutterstock)</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>It’s this modern loneliness that is having a significant impact on our health.</p>
<p>Julianne Holt-Lunstad, a professor of psychology and neuroscience at Brigham Young University in the U.S., has studied the impacts of loneliness on people’s health.</p>
<p>“Being alone can activate these kinds of responses in our brain — and ultimately our bodies — that are associated with the threat response. And so we’re more hyper-vigilant to threats in our environment, as well as having to, in essence, handle every challenge in our life on our own. Our brains have to be more active, and this requires more metabolic resources.”</p>
<p>This stress response triggers an inflammatory response which, over time, can contribute to conditions including cardiovascular disease and cognitive health. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/social-isolation-linked-to-higher-levels-of-inflammation-new-study-132564">Social isolation linked to higher levels of inflammation – new study</a>
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<p>Social isolation is the absence of meaningful social connections, and so addressing its effects is not as simple as being around others. It requires building relationships of trust, belonging and support.</p>
<p>The World Health Organization has identified <a href="https://www.who.int/teams/social-determinants-of-health/demographic-change-and-healthy-ageing/social-isolation-and-loneliness">social isolation as a social determinant of health</a>, finding its impact to be “comparable to that of other well-established risk factors such as smoking, obesity, and physical inactivity,” especially for the elderly.</p>
<p>Kate Mulligan, an assistant professor at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health in Canada, advocates for a health-care approach called <a href="https://www.socialprescribing.ca/">social prescribing</a> to address the health effects of loneliness.</p>
<p>“Social prescribing is a way to use health care visits to reconnect people with nonclinical supports, community supports, that improve their health and well-being,” she explains. </p>
<p>While it is a new approach, it’s firmly rooted in evidence that connecting people to others can help address some of their health-care needs. </p>
<p>“Harm reduction communities have led by example and shown that peer workers create that welcoming environment in a way that is meaningful for people who use drugs.”</p>
<p>But the impacts of loneliness are not just physical. Loneliness can create a feedback loop that increases polarization within society.</p>
<p>Holt-Lunstad points out that “there’s vulnerability in terms of others that are not trusted. And so it may be considered very natural to want to have alliances and allegiances to your own group and to distrust other groups. And this unfortunately has led to a very common us-versus-them mentality, where people are isolating themselves within their groups of like-minded people.”</p>
<p>And while loneliness is experienced on an individual level, it is caused by much larger structural problems. As Chakravarti points out, “if we don’t address it or think about this as a social problem, as a social challenge as opposed to an individual affliction, we’re going to not be able to address it.”</p>
<p>Listen to the full episode of The Conversation Weekly to find out more. </p>
<p>This episode of The Conversation Weekly was produced and written by Nehal El-Hadi and Mend Mariwany, who is also the show’s executive producer. Sound design is by Eloise Stevens, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. Music used in this episodes includes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fw_0lE0G3NA&t=30s&ab_channel=Buddha%27sLounge">Duduk Music by Buddha’s Lounge</a>.</p>
<p>You can find us on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/TC_Audio">@TC_Audio</a>, on Instagram at <a href="https://www.instagram.com/theconversationdotcom/">@theconversationdotcom</a> or <a href="mailto:podcast@theconversation.com">via email</a>. You can also sign up to The Conversation’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/newsletter">free emails here</a>. A transcript of this episode will be available soon. </p>
<p>Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our <a href="https://feeds.acast.com/public/shows/60087127b9687759d637bade">RSS feed</a>, or find out <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-listen-to-the-conversations-podcasts-154131">how else to listen here</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199939/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Mulligan and/or the Canadian Institute for Social Prescribing have received funding from the Public Health Agency of Canada, the Canadian Red Cross, the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, and the Social Sciences & Humanities Research Council of Canada.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ananya Chakravarti and Julianne Holt-Lunstad do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Public health measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic meant that many people experienced social isolation. But the pandemic didn’t invent loneliness, and its impacts on our health are growing.Nehal El-Hadi, Science + Technology Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationDaniel Merino, Associate Science Editor & Co-Host of The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The ConversationLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1990652023-02-12T13:19:53Z2023-02-12T13:19:53ZWhy populism has an enduring and ominous appeal<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509037/original/file-20230208-2401-c7sy0r.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C5615%2C3732&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Protesters, supporters of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro, storm the National Congress building in Brasilia on Jan. 8, 2023.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source"> (AP Photo/Eraldo Peres, File)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/1468795X14536652">Max Weber</a>, the founder of modern sociology, once argued that charismatic politicians are seen by their followers as saviours and heroes.</p>
<p>But they are just as likely to be charlatans and swindlers.</p>
<p>Whether you blame social media or inequality, contemporary citizens seem to want political <a href="https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/">horse races</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659">big personalities</a> — at least that’s the conventional wisdom. Engage your disgruntled followers with big ideas on TikTok! </p>
<p>It would be bad enough if culture war clashes were just so much entertainment. But politicians that include former British prime minister <a href="https://michaelignatieff.ca/article/2022/democracy-versus-democracy-the-populist-challenge-to-liberal-democracy/">Boris Johnson</a> in the U.K. and American Sen. <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3760382-hawley-cruz-rubio-emerge-as-champions-of-gop-populism-amid-trumps-decline/">Josh Hawley</a> appeal to the working classes — the masses of people without much money who turn out to vote. </p>
<p>Their alpha male leadership styles are built on audacious attacks on <a href="https://michaelignatieff.ca/article/2022/democracy-versus-democracy-the-populist-challenge-to-liberal-democracy/">the legitimacy</a> of free, open and equitable societies.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-hard-core-trump-supporters-ignore-his-lies-144650">Why hard-core Trump supporters ignore his lies</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The public watches in amazement as these leaders espouse terrible beliefs about immigrants, refugees and sexual minorities that only bigots used to say in private. </p>
<p>As we examine in our book <em><a href="https://ecwpress.com/products/has-populism-won">Has Populism Won? The War On Liberal Democracy</a></em>, these populist shock-and-awe tactics are a brazen attempt to personalize authority under the cliché of “power to the people.” They also cause citizens to lose sight of what’s important as they bicker over the newest scandal. </p>
<h2>Conspiracy theories, lies</h2>
<p>Polarization is not a side effect of populism, but rather its <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/01/how-to-understand-global-spread-of-political-polarization-pub-79893">mainspring</a>. </p>
<p>Populists know that in highly polarized societies, a photo finish is still a win. So candidates <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-hell-fight-like-hell-to-hold-on-to-presidency">fight like hell</a>, using every tool at their disposal to win — conspiracy theories, outright lies and of course, obscene amounts of money. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1622709298500628482"}"></div></p>
<p>Disenchanted voters support populists because conservatives have thrown off the shackles of modern <a href="https://reviewcanada.ca/magazine/2023/01/the-shill-of-the-people/">political messaging</a>. Extremism cuts through the noise of the news cycle and connects with the base. </p>
<p>Pierre Poilievre, Canada’s newly elected Conservative leader, is an example. He’s <a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/8959365/canada-day-convoy-james-topp-far-right-pierre-poilievre/">riding the wave of the so-called Freedom Convoy, anti-vaxxers and the far-right wing of his party</a> and following the template that has worked so well for populist governments across the globe. </p>
<p>But his free speech persona, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2019.1599570">like every other authoritarian</a>, is carefully constructed.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1623420038244929536"}"></div></p>
<p>Italy’s <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/italys-election-giorgia-meloni-far-right-favorite-for-prime-minister-appeals-to-disgruntled-voters/a-63184990">Giorgia Meloni</a> is an instructive example of this careful construction. </p>
<p>Voters were seduced by her charisma. That’s because the crucial element in creating a a popular far-right movement is constantly reminding citizens that they are the tribe of the true nation — and Meloni has mastered the discipline of a communications maestro. </p>
<p>Collective wrath is a proxy for belonging to the tribe and that feeling of belonging became the basis for her authoritarian fantasy of the popular will. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/giorgia-melonis-win-in-italy-proves-even-a-seemingly-successful-government-can-fall-victim-to-populism-191278">Giorgia Meloni's win in Italy proves even a seemingly successful government can fall victim to populism</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Anger is a prime motivator</h2>
<p>Despite his defeat, voters turned out in large numbers to vote for <a href="https://www.cfr.org/blog/2020-election-numbers">Donald Trump in 2020</a> and barely rejected <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/30/brazil-election-lula-da-silva-narrowly-defeats-jair-bolsonaro">Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro in 2022</a>.</p>
<p>Do high-profile losses mean the worst is over? No, because the <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2020/03/11/populism-jeopardizes-democracies-around-world/">contempt for democracy at the heart of populism</a> has not yet been defeated. Today <a href="https://www.arabnews.com/node/2232411">populism is still growing</a>, metastasizing and reaching into every corner of modern politics. It is coming from many directions at once. </p>
<p>At first it was easy to write off populism’s appeal to ignorance. Now the key elements radicalizing voters are crystal-clear: <a href="https://www.piie.com/commentary/speeches-papers/backlash-against-globalization">anger against hyper-globalization, a reserve army of economic losers, ideological true believers</a>, charismatic leaders weaponizing the big lie and the ultimate prize, money and organization to win the commanding heights of political office.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-freedom-convoy-protesters-are-a-textbook-case-of-aggrieved-entitlement-176791">The 'freedom convoy' protesters are a textbook case of 'aggrieved entitlement'</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Social psychologists have shown that anger is a <a href="https://isr.umich.edu/news-events/insights-newsletter/article/anger-motivates-people-to-vote-u-m-study-shows/">prime motivator</a> in politics. In times of peril, the most vulnerable pin their hopes on the authoritarian leader with emotionally charged messaging and grandiose promises. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A man with a white beard and glasses gestures as he speaks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509015/original/file-20230208-17-egr76l.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses the media in New Delhi in November 2021.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Manish Swarup)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Of course, the anger is a distraction from the true work of the populist — disinformation. In a post-truth age, the populist is a narcissist like India’s Narendra Modi, <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/04/modi-india-personality-cult-democracy/">who uses sly innuendo and outright chicanery to consolidate power</a>. </p>
<p>Many reasonable people in advanced democracies tolerate populist temper tantrums because <a href="https://doi.org/10.5964/jspp.6565">anger and bullshit</a> are better than apathy, aren’t they? </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/bullshit-is-everywhere-heres-how-to-deal-with-it-at-work-135661">Bullshit is everywhere. Here's how to deal with it at work</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Populist turmoil, however, can’t be measured in units of patriotism. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-54484-7_64">Patriotism requires genuine care</a> for one’s country and all the people in it. </p>
<p>In the hands of masters of manipulation, anger coarsens discourse, diminishes the possibility of compromise and normalizes extreme rhetoric. Even so, anger in politics isn’t always a power move. </p>
<p>Outrage can motivate people to speak up and utter uncomfortable truths. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/00220272.2021.2009578">Compassionate anger</a> can be a powerful force for justice, as we witnessed in the Black Lives Matter movement. How can we tell the difference between rage farming and righteous anger? It’s difficult but doable.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People carry a Black Lives Matter flag as they walk along a downtown street at night." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509042/original/file-20230208-30-ypgkhe.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In this Nov. 4, 2020, photo, protesters representing Black Lives Matter and Protect the Results march in Seattle.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The cynicism of contempt</h2>
<p>The difference between political success and failure in such a polarized society is always a matter of voter turnout. </p>
<p>In the United States, the Republicans bet that dialling up the anger to an 11 would squeeze a few more votes from an exhausted electorate, but they didn’t deliver <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/01/us/politics/trump-republicans-2024-nikki-haley.html">a red tsunami — this time</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/young-u-s-voters-reduced-the-red-wave-to-a-pink-splash-in-the-midterm-elections-why-didnt-polls-predict-it-194507">Young U.S. voters reduced the 'Red Wave' to a 'Pink Splash' in the midterm elections — why didn't polls predict it?</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Is it fair to decry the normalization of strong emotions in politics as a conservative problem? Don’t both sides use intense feeling for political gain? They do. </p>
<p><a href="https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00987-4">Emotional messaging is too potent a tool in modern democracy</a> to be ignored by any party that wants to win power. But today, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2017/may/26/negativity-bias-why-conservatives-are-more-swayed-by-threats-than-liberals">conservatives lean hard on strong negative emotions</a> and eschew hope — and their outrage <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/13/populism-post-truth-politics-brazil-protest-00077721">too often carries a distinct threat of vindictive violence.</a> </p>
<p>When analyzing affective political messaging, we always need to figure out if the anger we’re witnessing is calculated to prolong endless wars of polarization or whether it seeks to reconcile division and rebuild community. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="Two black women press their heads together." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/509028/original/file-20230208-2415-oak7ni.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">RowVaughn Wells, left, mother of Tyre Nichols, who died after being beaten by Memphis police officers, is comforted by Rep. Shelia Jackson Lee, D-Texas, on Capitol Hill on Feb. 7, 2023.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Cliff Owen)</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For example, Black mothers in Memphis are demanding the police stop killing <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/27/us/rowvaughn-wells-tyre-nichols-mother-interview/index.html">their sons</a>. Their demands are grounded in reality, and more than anything else they want a future of peace and safety for their children.</p>
<p>Today populism is defined by rhetorical violence and the authoritarian supposed strongmen. <a href="https://diamond-democracy.stanford.edu/speaking/speeches/when-does-populism-become-threat-democracy">Democracies die and civil wars start</a> with right-wing leaders who use their anger to degrade democracy and tighten their grip on power. </p>
<p>Make no mistake. We are far beyond the stop-gap measures of small-step reform or pragmatic centrist liberalism. What lies beyond the careful compromises of the post-Second World War order? We’re about to find out.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/199065/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Populism has been unleashed. We’re beyond the stop-gap measures of small-step reform or pragmatic centrist liberalism. What’s next? We’re about to find out.Daniel Drache, Professor emeritus, Department of Politics, York University, CanadaMarc D. Froese, Professor of Political Science and Founding Director, International Studies Program, Burman UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1973092023-01-11T17:50:47Z2023-01-11T17:50:47ZThe problem with immigration targets: They’re ‘guesstimates’ easily misunderstood by the public<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503512/original/file-20230108-17-nu0jyd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3978%2C2900&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">People take the citizenship oath at Pier 21 immigration centre in Halifax on July 1, 2017. </span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adina Bresge</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The illusion of science that surrounds these numbers and their emotive force make them powerful political tools that need to be better understood by the public to avoid provoking anti-immigration sentiment.</p>
<p>Immigration targets are immigration bureaucrats’ best guess, based on institutional experience and analyses, of how many people can join a society and economy without threatening social cohesion. </p>
<p>In other words, they are estimates of what Canadian immigration bureaucrats have historically referred to the country’s <a href="https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-canada-struggling-to-absorb-immigrants-internal-report-says">“absorptive capacity.”</a> </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503508/original/file-20230108-11529-omizh6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C0%2C5288%2C3704&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired man with a beard in a suit gestures as he speaks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503508/original/file-20230108-11529-omizh6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=48%2C0%2C5288%2C3704&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503508/original/file-20230108-11529-omizh6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503508/original/file-20230108-11529-omizh6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503508/original/file-20230108-11529-omizh6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503508/original/file-20230108-11529-omizh6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503508/original/file-20230108-11529-omizh6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503508/original/file-20230108-11529-omizh6.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=527&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Immigration Minister Sean Fraser responds to a question in the House of Commons in December 2022.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Writing in 1948, a high-ranking civil servant called the concept <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/002070204800300304">“difficult if not impossible to measure,”</a> while noting that it includes factors such as the population to land ratio (accounting for expected standards of living), demographic trends, employment opportunities and immigrants’ economic, social and human capital. </p>
<p>Based on these considerations, the federal government has aimed since the 1950s — and, as shown below, mostly failed — to bring in the equivalent of one per cent of Canada’s population annually through immigration. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503697/original/file-20230109-17132-qx6px8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A graph shows Canada's immigration levels as a share of population" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503697/original/file-20230109-17132-qx6px8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503697/original/file-20230109-17132-qx6px8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503697/original/file-20230109-17132-qx6px8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503697/original/file-20230109-17132-qx6px8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=249&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503697/original/file-20230109-17132-qx6px8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503697/original/file-20230109-17132-qx6px8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503697/original/file-20230109-17132-qx6px8.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=312&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Canada’s immigration levels as a share of population.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author's calculations</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Immigration intake</h2>
<p>Ottawa’s <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-immigration-500000-2025-1.6636661">announcement</a> late last year of plans to raise its immigration target to 500,000 a year by 2025 is therefore unremarkable from a policy perspective. </p>
<p><a href="https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2022015-eng.htm">Statistics Canada’s</a> low-growth scenario for Canada’s population in 2025 is 39,861,100, which would make the planned immigrant intake equivalent to 1.25 per cent of the population.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-canada-plans-to-break-records-with-its-new-refugee-targets-193880">How Canada plans to break records with its new refugee targets</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The problem with immigration targets entering public debate is that they eliminate nuance while raising anxieties. Like governments, the general public is concerned about “absorptive capacity,” but it seldom has access to the kinds of detailed academic research on the economic and social integration of immigrants that civil servants do. </p>
<p>Integration successes and challenges can vary by someone’s <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-012-0265-1">human capital</a> (for example, education and linguistic ability); how they <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12110">enter the country</a> (for example, as a skilled worker or a spouse); their <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/44320795">age and macroeconomic conditions</a> upon arrival; broad <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-007-0001-4">institutional contexts</a> (including the structure of labour markets); <a href="https://www.canadim.com/news/trv-refusal-rate-at-70-for-overseas-sponsorship-applicants/">racial or ethnic discrimination</a>; and the quality of their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-012-0248-2">social ties</a> in Canada. </p>
<p>None of the nuance needed to answer the question of how many and what kind of immigrants have a positive or negative effect on society is reflected in a single, large number.</p>
<p>Absent a more complete picture of immigrant integration dynamics and outcomes, immigration targets can easily activate public anxieties about immigrants threatening social cohesion by increasing competition for resources like health care, housing, education and desirable jobs, or by creating what some might regard as too much socio-cultural diversity. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="People take the oath of Canadian citizenship in a virtual ceremony seen on a computer screen." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503509/original/file-20230108-19-j74gvi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503509/original/file-20230108-19-j74gvi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503509/original/file-20230108-19-j74gvi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503509/original/file-20230108-19-j74gvi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503509/original/file-20230108-19-j74gvi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503509/original/file-20230108-19-j74gvi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503509/original/file-20230108-19-j74gvi.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A virtual citizenship ceremony on Canada Day, 2020.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Justin Tang</span></span>
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</figure>
<h2>Scapegoating the stranger</h2>
<p>This is evident in Québec Premier <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/labour-minister-caq-immigration-1.6598558">François Legault’s declaration</a> last year that admitting more than 50,000 immigrants a year to the province would be “a bit suicidal.” </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/note-to-quebecs-premier-french-is-the-language-of-human-rights-not-xenophobia-193683">Note to Québec's premier: French is the language of human rights, not xenophobia</a>
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<p>This statement followed former Québec immigration minister <a href="https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/80-per-cent-of-immigrants-go-to-montreal-don-t-work-don-t-speak-french-caq-immigration-minister-1.6087601">Jean Boulet’s claim</a> that “80 per cent of immigrants (who) go to Montréal don’t work, don’t speak French or don’t adhere to the values of Québec society.” </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="A man in a suit gestures as he speaks, blue and white flags behind him." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503510/original/file-20230108-6795-iwelmg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503510/original/file-20230108-6795-iwelmg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503510/original/file-20230108-6795-iwelmg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503510/original/file-20230108-6795-iwelmg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=443&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503510/original/file-20230108-6795-iwelmg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503510/original/file-20230108-6795-iwelmg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503510/original/file-20230108-6795-iwelmg.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=556&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">François Legault responds to a question at a news conference in December at the provincial legislature in Québec City.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jacques Boissinot</span></span>
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<p>Such statements are neither new nor exclusive to Québec. </p>
<p>Immigrants have long been the scapegoats for broader political failures. Just ask Georg Simmel, a Jewish sociologist in early 20th-century Germany, who identified <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/07256868.2012.739136">“the stranger”</a> as a key position in modern societies and one often held by immigrants. </p>
<p>Economic insiders but perpetual social outsiders, “strangers” are at once appreciated for their economic utility and easily declared an “inner enemy” when troubles arise. </p>
<p>The scapegoating of “the stranger” is politically expedient, as it allows both political leaders and dissatisfied citizens to avoid painful questions about the real sources of their troubles, including long-term trends in social, health and housing policies, which require sustained political efforts to fix. </p>
<h2>Fuelling polarization</h2>
<p>When immigration targets cause public anxiety, they can fuel political polarization and be used by politicians to justify harsh immigration policies. </p>
<p>Take the case in the United Kingdom. In 2010, Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron announced that immigration needed to be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jan/11/david-cameron-limit-immigration">limited to “tens of thousands”</a> rather than “hundreds of thousands” of people per year to reduce pressure on public services. </p>
<figure class="align-left zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503511/original/file-20230108-10421-60a44j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A dark-haired man in a suit stands behind a podium, gesturing as he speaks." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503511/original/file-20230108-10421-60a44j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/503511/original/file-20230108-10421-60a44j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503511/original/file-20230108-10421-60a44j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503511/original/file-20230108-10421-60a44j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503511/original/file-20230108-10421-60a44j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503511/original/file-20230108-10421-60a44j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/503511/original/file-20230108-10421-60a44j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">David Cameron, then the British prime minister, answers a question from a journalist after announcing strict new measures designed to control immigration to the U.K. in 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AP Photo/Matt Dunham)</span></span>
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<p>Plucked out of thin air during a television appearance, the “tens of thousands” guesstimate, which became known as the “net migration target,” has had a large <a href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCM_Trust-UK-FINAL.pdf">impact on policymaking and public perceptions</a> of British immigration over the past decade. </p>
<p>The idea that there were too many immigrants being admitted by a factor of 10 helped to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/immigration-worries-drove-the-brexit-vote-then-attitudes-changed/2018/11/16/c216b6a2-bcdb-11e8-8243-f3ae9c99658a_story.html">justify a new, restrictive immigration policy — as well as Brexit</a> — as a means of limiting immigration from Europe under the <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/147/free-movement-of-persons">European Union’s freedom of movement clause</a>.</p>
<p>The target also became a justification for creating a hostile environment for immigrants in the United Kingdom, whereby <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0261018320980653">controls on legal status have been integrated into everyday settings like classrooms, health-care facilities and workplaces.</a></p>
<p>Guesstimates like immigration targets can be useful and expedient for policymaking. But in the public arena, they need to be more fully understood if immigration debates are to be grounded in evidence.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/197309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jennifer Elrick receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC) and the Fonds de recherche du Québec – Société et culture (FRQSC). </span></em></p>Immigration targets can be useful and expedient for policymaking. In the public arena, they need to be more fully understood if immigration debates are to be based on reality.Jennifer Elrick, Associate Professor of Sociology, McGill UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.