tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/population-loss-48029/articlesPopulation loss – The Conversation2023-06-21T02:20:41Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2073122023-06-21T02:20:41Z2023-06-21T02:20:41ZCOVID didn’t change internal migration as much as claimed, new ABS data show<p>At its height, the COVID-19 pandemic <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/population-change-2020">disrupted</a> well-established patterns of migration within Australia. Reports of a <a href="https://newsroom.kpmg.com.au/covid-19s-impact-population-growth-regional-renaissance-melbourne-sydney-decline/">regional renaissance</a> suggested city dwellers were <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-02/abs-data-confirms-city-exodus-during-covid/13112868">moving to regional areas</a> in droves. The governments of Tasmania, South Australia and the Northern Territory were also keen to promote new migration flows to reverse long-standing declines in their shares of the national population.</p>
<p>Advice from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) that internal migration numbers were “<a href="https://population.gov.au/data-and-forecasts/key-data-releases/national-state-and-territory-population-september-2021">implausibly high</a>” received less attention. The ABS suspended these data releases due to this concern. Its latest <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/dec-2022#states-and-territories">population data release</a> uses a revised model for <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/detailed-methodology-information/information-papers/2021-census-update-net-interstate-migration-mode">net interstate migration</a>. </p>
<p>These data indicate a new normal rather than a renaissance for South Australia, the Northern Territory and Tasmania. </p>
<p>Internal migration losses for capital cities have also slowed.</p>
<iframe title="Components of population change by state and territory" aria-label="Grouped Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-dV3D1" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/dV3D1/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lets-just-do-it-how-do-e-changers-feel-about-having-left-the-city-now-lockdowns-are-over-188009">'Let's just do it': how do e-changers feel about having left the city now lockdowns are over?</a>
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<h2>So what was going on?</h2>
<p>In reality, the data present a different story to the popular narrative. Pandemic-era <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">ABS data</a> for 2020 showed increased growth in non-metropolitan areas was due more to retaining residents than attracting new ones. </p>
<p>This is unsurprising. Much of Australia was in lockdown, restricting movement, and case numbers were highest in the capital cities. The historical main reasons for leaving regional areas – education and/or jobs – were no longer viable options. </p>
<p>In 2020, interstate migration fell by 29%. In 2021, it increased on paper by 45% compared with 2020. </p>
<p>However, the ABS advised this large increase was mainly due to people updating their addresses with Medicare during mass vaccination rollouts. The distorting effect of these belated updates prompted the ABS to suspend the release of regional internal migration estimates. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/2021-census-overcount-and-undercount/latest-release">under-counts and over-counts</a> identified from the 2021 census show just how far off estimates of population and migration were for some areas. The ABS has <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/detailed-methodology-information/information-papers/2021-census-update-net-interstate-migration-model">revised its methodology</a>, based on the census findings and updated Medicare data. </p>
<p>Last week, the ABS released details of its new assumptions for modelling interstate migration with the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national-state-and-territory-population/dec-2022#states-and-territories">latest population data</a> for the last quarter of 2022. Under this model, total interstate migration for 2022 fell 21%, compared with 2021, to levels similar to those of 2016. </p>
<p>As for movement between capital cities and regional areas within states, we have <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release#key-statistics">data for four quarters</a> since March 2022 when the ABS resumed releases. (“Regional areas” include large centres like the Gold Coast, Geelong and Newcastle.) The numbers moving to greater capital cities have been increasing, and the numbers leaving have been declining. Even so, more people are still leaving capital cities than arriving (excluding overseas arrivals). </p>
<iframe title="Population changes by capital city for year to June 30 2022" aria-label="Grouped Column Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-ByYH4" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ByYH4/2/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="400" data-external="1"></iframe>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/has-covid-really-caused-an-exodus-from-our-cities-in-fact-moving-to-the-regions-is-nothing-new-154724">Has COVID really caused an exodus from our cities? In fact, moving to the regions is nothing new</a>
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<h2>What does this mean for state and territory populations?</h2>
<p>The revised data allow us to assess migration flows between states and territories for the last quarter of 2022 as well as back through time, including the pandemic. </p>
<p>In the peak pandemic year of 2020, South Australia recorded a net gain from interstate migration. The then premier <a href="https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/brain-drain-from-south-australia-reverses-again-abs-figures-show/news-story/3c7ebb08c67603a5f050dbcab2368d26">attributed</a> the reversal of the state’s brain drain to its “performance in containing COVID, accelerating industrial transformation and strong jobs growth”. </p>
<p>A closer look at the data shows the upward trend began well before the pandemic. The net loss due to interstate migration had decreased from -7,693 in 2017 to -2,885 in 2019. </p>
<p>The pandemic did accelerate this trend. Early in the pandemic, the net gain of 2,348 people in SA was driven by retention of people. Arrivals fell by 21.7%, but the decrease in departures was larger at 35.4%. In 2021, the net gain of 2,310 people was slightly smaller as arrivals increased by 43.6% and departures by 48.5%. </p>
<p>In 2022, however, the net gain was only 670 people. This suggests a return to net interstate migration losses is possible. </p>
<p>The revised data for the Northern Territory show a consistent net population loss to interstate migration of about 2,100 in the five years leading up to the pandemic. Then, in 2020, interstate arrivals fell considerably but departures fell even more. The result was a small net gain of 110. </p>
<p>When the territory’s borders reopened in 2021, both arrivals and departures surged to 1.5 times the average of the five years to 2020 at 16,992 arrivals and 19,298 departures. But in 2022 both figures wound back to 14% below the five-year pre-COVID average. Departures once again outstripped arrivals, by 2,120, very close to the average net loss of 2,306 for those five years.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/you-cant-boost-australias-north-to-5-million-people-without-a-proper-plan-125063">You can't boost Australia's north to 5 million people without a proper plan</a>
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<p>The Tasmanian government is refreshing its <a href="https://www.stategrowth.tas.gov.au/policies_and_strategies/populationstrategy">2015 Population Growth Strategy</a> and plans to appoint a <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/speeches/state-of-the-state-address">state demographer</a>. In November 2021, the then premier <a href="https://www.premier.tas.gov.au/speeches/ceda_state_of_the_state_address3">declared</a> people were “knocking on the door, and knocking loudly” to move to the state. This was not the case. </p>
<p>In 2020, interstate arrivals fell by 18% and departures by 28%. The state’s net gain was 2,633. For 2021, at the time of the vaccination rollout, arrivals increased by 39% and departures by 53%, resulting in a smaller net gain. For 2022, arrivals fell by 30% and departures by 16%, for a net loss of 941 people. </p>
<p>This reverses a seven-year period of interstate migration gains for Tasmania. With the lowest growth since 2015, the state has returned to the times before a population growth strategy. The level of natural increase (births minus deaths) is the lowest on record. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/tasmania-cant-only-rely-on-a-growing-population-for-an-economic-boost-91236">Tasmania can't only rely on a growing population for an economic boost</a>
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<h2>Getting the numbers right matters for us all</h2>
<p>Claiming a <a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/covidinduced-renaissance-for-regional-property-spikes/news-story/2a2dc5295aa0c28decc3a76579668bea">population resurgence</a> may help promote confidence for regions experiencing challenges from population ageing, economic performance and/or remoteness. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-do-small-rural-communities-often-shun-newcomers-even-when-they-need-them-199984">Why do small rural communities often shun newcomers, even when they need them?</a>
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<p>The problem with such populist narratives is they may also jeopardise the development of good policy, programs and infrastructure for key services such as housing, health and education. Funding could end up going to areas with less relative need. </p>
<p>These narratives may also muddy the already <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/andrews-fires-warning-at-albanese-over-sweetheart-gst-deals-20230314-p5cryx.html">contentious distribution</a> of GST revenue to the states and territories. In addition, population numbers affect how many seats each state and territory has in the House of Representatives. </p>
<p>We need reliable and robust data to make informed decisions. This is why we should all take personal responsibility for promptly updating our home addresses with Medicare when we move. Although this might not seem urgent for individuals, not doing so may mean their share of services and infrastructure falls short of what it might otherwise be.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/207312/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lisa Denny has received funding from the Tasmanian Department of State Growth in the past. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Taylor receives funding from the Northern Territory Department of Treasury and Finance. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>George Tan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The latest revised data challenge the popular narrative about a population renaissance for regional Australia and for states and territories that were losing residents to other parts of the country.Lisa Denny, Adjunct Associate Professor, Institute for Social Change, University of TasmaniaAndrew Taylor, Associate Professor, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityGeorge Tan, Lecturer in Population Geography, University of AdelaideLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1611692021-06-21T12:19:40Z2021-06-21T12:19:40ZThe dip in the US birthrate isn’t a crisis, but the fall in immigration may be<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/407122/original/file-20210617-13-kyqlc6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=50%2C14%2C4728%2C3687&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Reports of an American “baby bust” may be premature. But the drop in immigration puts the nation's demographic future at risk.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com">Ariel Skelly/DigitalVision via Getty</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced in May 2021 that the nation’s total fertility rate had reached <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr012-508.pdf">1.64 children per woman in 2020</a>, dropping 4% from 2019, <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-us-birth-rate-keeps-declining-4-questions-answered-128962">a record low</a> for the nation. </p>
<p>The news led to many <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/05/05/the-coming-covid-19-baby-bust-is-here/">stories</a> about a “<a href="https://time.com/5892749/covid-19-baby-bust">baby bust</a>” <a href="https://theweek.com/articles/982103/doomloop-falling-fertility-rate">harming the country</a>. The fear is that if the trend continues, the nation’s population may age and that will lead to difficulties in funding entitlements like Social Security and Medicaid for seniors in the future. </p>
<p>But as a <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=QN9RQAYAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">statistician and sociologist</a> who collaborates with <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4196216">the United Nations Population Division</a> to develop new statistical population forecasting methods, I’m not yet calling this a crisis. In fact, America’s 2020 birth rate is in line with trends going back over 40 years. Similar trends have been observed in most of the U.S.’s peer countries.</p>
<p>The other reason this is not a crisis, at least not yet, is that America’s historically high immigration rates have put the country in a demographic sweet spot relative to other developed countries like Germany and Japan.</p>
<p>But that could change. A recent dramatic decline in immigration is now putting the country’s demographic advantage at risk. </p>
<p>Falling immigration may be America’s real demographic crisis, not the dip in birth rates.</p>
<h2>A predictable change</h2>
<p>Most countries have experienced part or all of a fertility transition. </p>
<p>Fertility transitions occur when fertility falls from a high level – typical of agricultural societies – to a low level, more common in industrialized countries. This transition is due to falling mortality, more education for women, the increasing cost of raising children and other reasons. </p>
<p>In 1800, American women on average gave birth to seven children. The fertility rate decreased steadily, falling to just 1.74 children per woman in 1976, marking the end of America’s fertility transition. This is the point after which fertility no longer declined systematically, but instead began to fluctuate.</p>
<p>Birth rates have slightly fluctuated up and down in the 45 years since, rising to 2.11 in 2007. This was unusually high for a country that has made its fertility transition, and put the U.S. birth rate briefly at the top of developed countries. </p>
<p>A decline soon followed. The U.S. birth rate dropped incrementally from 2007 to 2020, at an average rate of about 2% per year. 2020’s decline was in line with this, and indeed was <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN.">slower than some previous declines, such as the ones in 2009 and 2010</a>. It put the U.S. on par with its peer nations, below the U.K. and France, but above Canada and Germany. </p>
<p>Using the methods I’ve helped develop, in 2019 the U.N. forecast <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp">a continuing drop in the global birth rate</a> for the period from 2020 to 2025. This methodology also forecast that the overall world population <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/346/6206/234">will continue to rise over the 21st century</a>. </p>
<p>The ideal situation for a country is steady, manageable population growth, which tends to go in tandem with a dynamic labor market and adequate provision for seniors, through entitlement programs or care by younger family members. In contrast, countries with declining populations face labor shortages and squeezes on provisions for seniors. At the other extreme, countries with very fast population growth can face massive youth unemployment and other problems.</p>
<p>Many countries that are peers with the U.S. now face brutally sharp declines in the number of working-age people for every senior within the next 20 years. For example, by 2040, Germany and Japan will have fewer than two working-age adults for every retired adult. In China, the ratio will go down from 5.4 workers per aged adult now to 1.7 in the next 50 years. </p>
<p>By comparison, the worker-to-senior ratio in the U.S. will also decrease, but more slowly, from 3.5 in 2020 to 2.1 by 2070. By 2055, the U.S. will have more workers per retiree than even Brazil and China. </p>
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<p>Germany, Japan and other nations face population declines, with Japan’s population projected to go down by a massive 40% by the end of the century. In Nigeria, on the other hand, the population is projected to more than triple, to over 700 million, because of the currently high fertility rate and young population. </p>
<p>In contrast, the U.S. population is projected to increase by 31% over the next 50 years, which is both manageable and good for the economy. This is slower than the growth of recent decades, but much better than the declines faced by peer industrialized nations. </p>
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<p>The reason for this is immigration. The U.S. has had the most net immigration in the world for decades, and the projections are based on the assumption that this will continue. </p>
<p>Migrants tend to be young, and to work. They contribute to the economy and <a href="https://www.nap.edu/read/21746/chapter/8#260">bring dynamism</a> to the society, along with supporting existing retirees, reducing the burden on current workers.</p>
<p>However, this source of demographic strength is at risk. Net migration into the U.S. <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html">declined by 40% from 2015 to 2019</a>, likely at least in part because of unwelcoming government policies. </p>
<p>If this is not reversed, the country faces a demographic future more like that of Germany or even Japan, with a rapidly aging population and the economic and social problems that come with it. The <a href="https://ifstudies.org/blog/can-uncle-sam-boost-american-fertility">jury is out</a> on whether family-friendly social policies will have enough positive impact on fertility to compensate. </p>
<p>If U.S. net migration continues on its historical trend as forecast by the U.N., the U.S. population will continue to increase at a healthy pace for the rest of the century. In contrast, if U.S. net migration continues only at the much lower 2019 rate, population growth will grind almost to a halt by 2050, with about 60 million fewer people by 2100. The fall in migration would also accelerate the aging of the U.S. population, with 7% fewer workers per senior by 2060, leading to possible labor shortages and challenges in funding Social Security and Medicare. </p>
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<p>While the biggest stream of immigrants is from Latin America, that is likely to decrease in the future given the declining fertility rates and aging populations there. In the longer term, more immigrants are likely to come from sub-Saharan Africa, and it will be important for America’s demographic future to attract, welcome and retain them.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/161169/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Adrian Raftery receives funding from the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD). </span></em></p>Immigration has historically offset America’s low fertility rate, but the recent dramatic drop in immigration threatens that trend.Adrian Raftery, Boeing International Professor of Statistics and Sociology, University of WashingtonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1547242021-02-14T18:50:00Z2021-02-14T18:50:00ZHas COVID really caused an exodus from our cities? In fact, moving to the regions is nothing new<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383707/original/file-20210211-17-jczzwd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C228%2C4697%2C3147&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/man-unpacking-moving-boxes-removal-truck-451241938">Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Internal migration resulted in a net loss of 11,200 people from Australia’s capital cities in the September quarter of 2020, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">data</a> released this month. At the same time, some regional areas experienced significant <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-04/house-prices-rise-1pc-regional-beats-capital-cities/13029268#:%7E:text=Annual%20data%20by%20real%20estate,research%20director%20Tim%20Lawless%20said.">growth in house prices</a> as <a href="https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2020/12/04/regional-australia-property-boom/">demand for properties</a> increased. So this has raised the questions: are we starting to see an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-02-02/abs-data-confirms-city-exodus-during-covid/13112868">exodus from our cities</a>, and is this related to the COVID-19 pandemic? </p>
<p>To work out what is happening there are a few important things to consider. </p>
<h2>In Australia we move a lot</h2>
<p>The first thing to keep in mind is that Australia has one of the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69">most internally mobile populations</a> in the world. About 40% of the population change their addresses at least once within a five-year period. However, the level of internal migration within Australia has <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69">fallen since the 1990s</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-are-moving-home-less-why-and-does-it-matter-133767">Australians are moving home less. Why? And does it matter?</a>
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<p>The greatest fall has been for long-distance moves between Australia cities and regions, which <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia">declined by 25%</a> between 1991 and 2016. Moves between states and territories <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia">fell by 16%</a> over this period. An increase or decrease in internal migration from year to year is not unusual. </p>
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<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">Data: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional internal migration estimates</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<h2>Putting the numbers into context</h2>
<p>While the recent loss of 11,200 people from Australia’s capital cities is the largest on record, it’s not a significant proportion of the population. Australia’s population has grown and so we expect to see the number of internal migrants to grow too. </p>
<p>The net loss of 11,200 people from capital cities is only 0.06% of the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/2018-19">total population</a> – 17.2 million – living in these cities. This is comparable to recent years. </p>
<p>While net loss – those arriving less those departing – is interesting, it is also important to consider the actual numbers of people who are moving to or leaving capital cities. The growth in the net loss of population from capital cities in the September quarter was not the result of a city exodus. What happened in 2020 was that fewer people moved into capital cities. </p>
<p>Drilling down further behind the headline data, we find Brisbane, Perth and Darwin all had net population gains. Brisbane has gained residents through internal migration in <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/sep-2020/3412055005DS0001_202003.xls">each quarter since 2014</a>.</p>
<p>The greatest contributor to the recent net quarterly loss of 11,200 was Sydney, with a net loss of 7,782 people. Melbourne was close behind with a net loss of 7,445. </p>
<p>While this might look alarming at first, Sydney and Melbourne are the largest population centres in Australia. And Sydney has recorded a net loss of population through internal migration <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/sep-2020/3412055005DS0001_202003.xls">every quarter for the past two decades</a>. Melbourne recorded net losses until 2012 and then since 2017. </p>
<p>Sydney and Melbourne’s overall population continued to grow over this period due to international migration. Population churn is part of the rhythm of these global cities. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/sep-2020/3412055005DS0001_202003.xls">data</a> also reveal that, on average, regional Australia has been gaining population for many years – decades actually. Moving to regional Australia is not new. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/meet-the-new-seachangers-now-its-younger-australians-moving-out-of-the-big-cities-103762">Meet the new seachangers: now it's younger Australians moving out of the big cities</a>
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<p>The past year’s COVID-19 restrictions closed Australia’s borders to the previously <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia/latest-release#net-overseas-migration">large numbers of international migrants</a>. Without these international migrants moving to capital cities, the long-term trend of people relocating to urban areas around major cities has become more apparent.</p>
<h2>Have the capital cities lost their appeal?</h2>
<p>Just considering the September 2020 quarter, <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">nearly 42,000 people</a> moved to capital cities. This is comparable to the March and June quarters of 2020. </p>
<p>This inflow is noteworthy. At a time when many capital cities had mobility restrictions related to COVID-19 in place, people were still moving to these cities. Australia’s capital cities <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/300000-more-people-living-capital-cities">have not lost their appeal</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Table showing quarterly internal migration for greater capital cities in September 2019, June 2020 and September 2020" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=241&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/383690/original/file-20210211-23-ncinci.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=302&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Click on table to enlarge.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-internal-migration-estimates-provisional/latest-release">Data: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional internal migration estimates Feb. 2021</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
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<p>There is a risk in interpreting net migration from capital cities as an indicator of decreasing satisfaction with city lifestyles or a growing desire for rural lifestyles. It masks the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook43p/regionalpopulation">considerable variability</a> in the types of moves people are making, where they are going and why. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-seemed-like-a-good-idea-in-lockdown-but-is-moving-to-the-country-right-for-you-148807">It seemed like a good idea in lockdown, but is moving to the country right for you?</a>
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<p>Outside of capital cities are a whole range of different community types. They range from expansive city areas such as the Gold Coast and Geelong through to tiny agricultural and fishing hamlets. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/regional-population/latest-release">fastest-growing areas outside capital cities</a> are those that offer sophisticated urban settings. They have diverse employment options and high-order social, education and healthcare infrastructure. So when people leave a capital city, more often than not <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Previousproducts/3218.0Feature%20Article12016-17?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=3218.0&issue=2016-17&num=&view=">they are moving to a large city</a>. </p>
<h2>Will COVID-19 lead to growth in smaller centres?</h2>
<p>Australia’s overall population growth has <a href="https://www.pmc.gov.au/sites/default/files/publications/planning-for-australia%27s-future-population.pdf">promoted the growth of capital cities and larger regional cities</a>. Some smaller communities, particularly high-amenity coastal towns, have also experienced periods of sustained population growth.</p>
<p>Distributing this growth further inland to smaller towns and cities is both possible and plausible. </p>
<p>A major barrier to population growth in smaller rural communities is the lack of diverse local employment options. For those who have made the transition to <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-could-spark-a-revolution-in-working-from-home-are-we-ready-133070">working fully or partially online</a> as a result of COVID-19 restrictions, <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-urban-sprawl-while-jobs-cluster-working-from-home-will-reshape-the-nation-144409">moving further from their workplace more permanently</a> – and perhaps to the country – could be on the cards. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/more-urban-sprawl-while-jobs-cluster-working-from-home-will-reshape-the-nation-144409">More urban sprawl while jobs cluster: working from home will reshape the nation</a>
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<h2>So is there a pandemic-related exodus?</h2>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting the way we live our lives but, no, there is not an exodus from Australia’s capital cities. For some, pandemic-related disruptions might have heightened their dissatisfaction with where they live. For others, working from home might have provided them with the opportunity to consider alternative living arrangements. </p>
<p>However, right now, given the data we have, it is unlikely that COVID-19 is driving a shift away from capital cities or city lifestyles.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/154724/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Davies does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The ‘exodus’ from capital cities amounts to 0.06% of their populations – similar to recent years – and people are still moving to the cities. What’s missing is growth driven by international migrants.Amanda Davies, Professor of Human Geography, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1456272020-09-13T19:51:09Z2020-09-13T19:51:09ZPaid parental leave needs an overhaul if governments want us to have ‘one for the country’<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357128/original/file-20200909-14-hl43n1.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=151%2C220%2C3279%2C1776&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/AlohaHawaii</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As Australia and New Zealand face the realities of slow growth, or even a decline in population, it’s time to ask if their governments are doing enough. Especially if they want to encourage people to have more babies.</p>
<p>New Zealand’s fertility rate has hit an all-time <a href="https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2008/S00108/nz-fertility-rate-is-at-all-time-low.htm">low</a> of 1.71 children per woman. The opposition National Party <a href="https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122653707/election-2020-national-launches-first-1000-days-policy-promises-3000-for-new-parents">wants</a> to entice parents with a NZ$3,000 “baby bonus” to be spent on family services.</p>
<p>Australia’s population growth rate is <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-24/treasurer-josh-frydenberg-baby-boom-economy-recovery-coronavirus/12489678">forecast</a> to be 0.6% in 2021, its lowest since 1916.</p>
<p>Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenburg urged Australians to have more children, reminding many of then treasurer Peter Costello’s <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/budget-bonus-for-mothers-and-families-20060508-ge29qi.html">encouragement to those who can</a> to have “one for mum, one for dad and one for the country”.</p>
<p>But if governments want people to procreate for their nation, they must be prepared to help them, and that includes increases in paid parental leave. </p>
<h2>The current system</h2>
<p>New Zealand <a href="https://doi.org/10.26686/pq.v2i1.4189" title="Paid parental leave in New Zealand: a short history and future policy options">introduced</a> <a href="https://www.employment.govt.nz/leave-and-holidays/parental-leave/types-of-parental-leave/">paid parental leave</a> in 1999, first as a tax credit then as a cash payment. Over time, the length was increased from 12 to 26 weeks, currently paid to <a href="https://www.employment.govt.nz/leave-and-holidays/parental-leave/parental-leave-payment/payment-amount/">a maximum of NZ$606.46 a week</a>.</p>
<p>There is no paid parental leave offered to dads or partners (although they are legally entitled to two weeks’ unpaid leave). But mums may transfer a portion of the 26 weeks to the dad or partner.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/reforming-dad-leave-is-a-baby-step-towards-greater-gender-equality-144113">Reforming 'dad leave' is a baby step towards greater gender equality</a>
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<p>Ten years ago, Australia was one of the last countries in the developed world to adopt government-funded maternity leave.</p>
<p>It offers the primary carer (<a href="https://grattan.edu.au/report/cheaper-childcare/">99.5% of the time, the mum</a>) <a href="https://www.fairwork.gov.au/leave/maternity-and-parental-leave/paid-parental-leave">18 weeks of paid leave at the minimum wage</a> (<a href="https://www.fairwork.gov.au/how-we-will-help/templates-and-guides/fact-sheets/minimum-workplace-entitlements/minimum-wages">currently A$753.80</a>). Only two weeks at the minimum wage is provided for the secondary carer.</p>
<p>When you compare the payment rates of parental leave to average salaries in each country (table below), Australia’s 18 weeks drops to an equivalent of 7.9 weeks annual average salary and New Zealand from 26 weeks to 15.5 weeks.</p>
<p><iframe id="tbVQl" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tbVQl/3/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<p>These low leave payments appear even less generous when compared to the <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/Parental-leave-and-gender-equality.pdf">OECD average</a> of 54.1 weeks of paid parental leave for mums and <a href="https://www.oecd.org/els/soc/PF2_1_Parental_leave_systems.pdf">eight weeks </a> for dads or partners. </p>
<p>While employers often top up state-paid parental leave entitlements, this is not always the case. For example, Australia’s <a href="https://www.wgea.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/Parental-leave-and-gender-equality.pdf">Workplace Gender Equality Agency</a> found more than 70% of financial services companies offered paid parental leave, but more than 80% of retail businesses did not.</p>
<h2>Earning or caring</h2>
<p>Given that dads or partners on both sides of the ditch face either no income for two weeks or less then half of the average income, it’s no wonder they choose to keep working to support their families financially.</p>
<p>We know from an Australian Human Rights Commission <a href="https://humanrights.gov.au/sites/default/files/document/publication/SWP_Report_2014.pdf">study in 2014</a> that 85% of dads and partners surveyed took up to four weeks’ leave, and more than half said they would have liked to take more to spend time with mum and newborn. There are <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jftr.12363" title="Fathering and Flexible Working Arrangements: A Systematic Interdisciplinary Review">substantial benefits</a> including an increase in the mental health and well‐being of fathers and their children as well as greater harmony for the couple. </p>
<p>Motherhood <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-parenthood-continues-to-cost-women-more-than-men-97243">penalises</a> women, contributing to significantly <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-30/superannation-young-women-fear-retirement-canberra-ywca-report/11365120">lower lifetime earnings</a>. Not to mention the “second shift” of domestic duties they do if they are balancing work and family. </p>
<p>If dads and partners spend more time with their families earlier on in their children’s lives, this increases the likelihood that household chores and caring responsibilities will be more <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.5172/jfs.2014.20.1.19" title="Changes in gender equality? Swedish fathers’ parental leave, division of childcare and housework">evenly distributed</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357134/original/file-20200909-14-9ck1iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="A mum, dad and a baby." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357134/original/file-20200909-14-9ck1iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/357134/original/file-20200909-14-9ck1iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357134/original/file-20200909-14-9ck1iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357134/original/file-20200909-14-9ck1iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357134/original/file-20200909-14-9ck1iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357134/original/file-20200909-14-9ck1iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/357134/original/file-20200909-14-9ck1iw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Happier families if proper paid leave helps both parents to be involved in early baby care.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock/Dragon Images</span></span>
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<p>Womens’ employment has also <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-10/women-have-lost-jobs-faster-than-men-during-coronavirus-but-are/12338598">been</a> hit harder by the COVID-19 pandemic. This includes receiving <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-09/childcare-changes-to-disproportionately-affect-women/12333398">less government assistance</a>.</p>
<p>The move to roll back free child care in Australia was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/08/australian-government-to-end-free-childcare-on-12-july-in-move-labor-says-will-snap-families">called</a> a “betrayal of Australian families” and “an anti-women move” by Greens Senator Mehreen Faruqi.</p>
<p>In addition to the “second shift”, women bear the brunt of a “third shift” – known as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/26/gender-wars-household-chores-comic">the mental load</a>. The business of running the family is characteristically undervalued and unpaid emotional labour, which is <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15487733.2020.1776561?needAccess=true">mostly</a> taken care of by women. </p>
<p>For many dual-income families, lockdown has changed the allocation of household chores and caring responsibilities. <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/coronavirus-covid19-domestic-work-housework-gender-gap-women-men/12369708">Research</a> shows the gap between men and women has narrowed.</p>
<h2>More women in the workplace</h2>
<p>In the upcoming New Zealand election, it will be interesting to see how the different parties deal with supporting families, the gender pay gap and female workforce participation.</p>
<p>If ever an example was needed to show how satisfying a non-traditional care arrangement can be for both parents, consider <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/stayathome-dad-to-help-jacinda-ardern-be-pm--a-mum-20180119-h0kz9h">stay-at-home dad Clarke Gayford</a>, who supports Jacinda Ardern to be New Zealand’s prime minister.</p>
<p>Our previous <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1441358220300070" title="Increasing parental leave uptake: A systems social marketing approach">research</a> found government policy alone does not increase the uptake of dads or partners taking parental leave. Changing workplace norms to support them is a key factor in creating flexible work arrangements and increasing parental leave uptake. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/fathers-days-increasing-the-daddy-quota-in-parental-leave-makes-everyone-happier-122047">Father's days: increasing the 'daddy quota' in parental leave makes everyone happier</a>
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<p>Working from home has made <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/there-s-a-silver-lining-for-fathers-in-the-covid-crisis-20200424-p54n1z.html">fatherhood</a> more visible and increased the time some Australian dads <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/coronavirus-covid19-domestic-work-housework-gender-gap-women-men/12369708">spend</a> caring for their children. </p>
<p>In a post-pandemic world, care responsibilities can no longer be labelled a private matter. New Zealand and Australia both have parental leave policies that fail to offer families real choices about care arrangements.</p>
<p>Dads and partners need their own leave entitlements and greater acceptance of their <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jftr.12363" title="Fathering and Flexible Working Arrangements: A Systematic Interdisciplinary Review">caring responsibilities</a> in the workplace. These changes will challenge caring as women’s work, ease the burden on women and may even boost the fertility rate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145627/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If governments are looking for a post-pandemic “baby boom” to help populations grow, then they should increase the amount and duration of paid parental leave for both mums and partners.Sarah Duffy, Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney UniversityMichelle O'Shea, Senior Lecturer Management, Western Sydney UniversityPatrick van Esch, Senior Lecturer in Marketing, AUT Business School, Auckland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1004552018-07-25T20:08:33Z2018-07-25T20:08:33ZThe 2016 Great Barrier Reef heatwave caused widespread changes to fish populations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229202/original/file-20180725-194140-1cri4pn.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Some fish fared better than others amid the extreme temperatures of the 2016 heatwave.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rick Stuart-Smith/Reef Life Survey</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The 2016 marine heatwave that <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-much-coral-has-died-in-the-great-barrier-reefs-worst-bleaching-event-69494">killed vast amounts of coral on the Great Barrier Reef</a> also caused significant changes to fishes and other animals that live on these reefs.</p>
<p>Coral habitats in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and in the Coral Sea support more than 1,000 fish species and a multitude of other animals. Our research, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0359-9">published in Nature today</a>, documents the broader impact across the ecosystem of the widespread coral losses during the 2016 mass coral bleaching event.</p>
<p>While a number of fish species were clearly impacted by the loss of corals, we also found that many fish species responded to the increased temperatures, even on reefs where coral cover remained intact. The fish communities in the GBR’s southern regions became more like those in warmer waters to the north, while some species, including parrotfishes, were negatively affected by the extreme sea temperatures at the northern reefs.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-2016-bleaching-altered-the-shape-of-the-northern-great-barrier-reef-95142">How the 2016 bleaching altered the shape of the northern Great Barrier Reef</a>
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<p>The loss of coral robs many fish species of their preferred food and shelter. But the warming that kills coral can also independently cause fish to move elsewhere, so as to <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-driven-species-on-the-move-are-changing-almost-everything-74752">stay within their preferred temperature range</a>. Rising temperatures can also <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ddi.12753">have different effects on the success, and therefore abundance, of different fish populations</a>.</p>
<p>One way to tease apart these various effects is to look at changes in neighbouring reefs, and across entire regions that have been affected by bleaching, including reefs that have largely escaped coral loss.</p>
<p>We were able to do just this, with the help of highly trained volunteer divers participating in the <a href="https://reeflifesurvey.com/">Reef Life Survey</a> citizen science program. We systematically surveyed 186 reefs across the entire GBR and western Coral Sea, both before and after the 2016 bleaching event. We counted numbers of corals, fishes, and mobile invertebrates such as sea urchins, lobsters and giant clams.</p>
<p>Sea temperatures and coral losses varied greatly between sites, which allowed us to separate the effects of warming from coral loss. In general, coral losses were much more substantial in areas that were most affected by the prolonged warmer waters in the 2016 heatwave. But these effects were highly patchy, with the amount of live hard coral lost differing significantly from reef to reef.</p>
<p>For instance, occasional large losses occurred in the southern GBR, where the marine heatwave was less extreme than at northern reefs. Similarly, some reefs in the north apparently escaped unscathed, despite the fact that many reefs in this region <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-2016-bleaching-altered-the-shape-of-the-northern-great-barrier-reef-95142">lost most of their live corals</a>.</p>
<h2>Sea temperatures the culprit</h2>
<p>Our survey results show that coral loss is just one way in which ocean warming can affect fishes and other animals that depend on coral reefs. Within the first year after the bleaching, the coral loss mostly affected fish species that feed directly on corals, such as the butterflyfishes. But we also documented many other changes that we could not clearly link to local coral loss.</p>
<p>Much more widespread than the impacts of the loss of hard corals was a generalised response by the fish to warm sea temperatures. The 2016 heatwave caused a mass reshuffling of fish communities across the GBR and Coral Sea, in ways that reflect the preferences of different species for particular temperatures.</p>
<p>In particular, most reef-dwelling animals on southern (cooler) reefs responded positively to the heatwave. The number of individuals and species on transect counts generally increased across this region.</p>
<p>By contrast, some reefs in the north <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771417303219">exceeded 32°C during the 2016 heatwave</a> – the typical sea temperature on the Equator, the hottest region inhabited by any of the GBR or Coral Sea species.</p>
<p>Some species responded negatively to these excessive temperatures, and the number of observations across surveys in their northernmost populations declined as a consequence.</p>
<p>Parrotfishes were more affected than other groups on northern reefs, regardless of whether their local reefs suffered significant coral loss. This was presumably because the heatwave pushed sea temperatures beyond the level at which their populations perform best.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229203/original/file-20180725-194155-1z13lwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229203/original/file-20180725-194155-1z13lwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/229203/original/file-20180725-194155-1z13lwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229203/original/file-20180725-194155-1z13lwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229203/original/file-20180725-194155-1z13lwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229203/original/file-20180725-194155-1z13lwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229203/original/file-20180725-194155-1z13lwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/229203/original/file-20180725-194155-1z13lwm.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Nothing to smile about: some parrotfishes don’t do well in extreme heat.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Rick Stuart-Smith/Reef Life Survey</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Local populations of parrotfishes will probably bounce back after the return of cooler temperatures. But if similar heatwaves become more frequent in the future, they could cause substantial and lasting declines among members of this ecologically important group in the warmest seas. </p>
<p>Parrotfishes are particularly important to the health of coral reef ecosystems, because their grazing helps to control algae that compete with corals for habitat space.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-the-2016-bleaching-altered-the-shape-of-the-northern-great-barrier-reef-95142">How the 2016 bleaching altered the shape of the northern Great Barrier Reef</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>A key message from our study is not to overlook the overarching influence of temperature on coral reef ecosystems – and not to focus solely on the corals themselves. </p>
<p>Even if we can save some corals from climate change, such as with more <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-we-found-112-recovery-reefs-dotted-through-the-great-barrier-reef-88316">stress-tolerant breeds of coral</a>, we may not be able to stop the impacts of warming seas on fish.</p>
<p>Future ecological outcomes will depend on a complex mix of factors, including fish species’ temperature preferences, their changing habitats, and their predators and competitors. These impacts will not always necessarily be negative for particular species and locations. </p>
<p>One reason for hope is that positive responses of many fish species in cooler tropical regions may continue to support healthy coral reef ecosystems, albeit in a different form to those we know today.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/100455/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rick Stuart-Smith is a board member of the Reef Life Survey Foundation, and has received funding for research from the Marine Biodiversity Hub (National Environmental Science Program), Australian Research Council, The Ian Potter Foundation, and Parks Australia. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christopher Brown receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Environmental Science Program and private philanthropy. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Daniela Ceccarelli consults to Reef Life Survey. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Graham Edgar receives funding from from the Marine Biodiversity Hub (National Environmental Science Program) and Australian Research Council. He is President of the Reef Life Survey Foundation.</span></em></p>The 2016 heatwave that caused mass bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef didn’t just kill corals - it also significantly changed the makeup of fish communities that call these reefs home.Rick Stuart-Smith, Research Fellow, University of TasmaniaChristopher Brown, Research Fellow, Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith UniversityDaniela Ceccarelli, Adjunct Senior Research, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook UniversityGraham Edgar, Senior Marine Ecologist, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/883982018-01-14T19:03:42Z2018-01-14T19:03:42ZWhen a country’s towns and villages face extinction<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201447/original/file-20180110-36031-1ajjfj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=7%2C574%2C5044%2C2871&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In Nagoro, in Tokushima Prefecture, one resident has made around 300 dolls to replace villagers who are no longer around.
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/robertomaxwell/17154974869/in/photolist-s8VJmM-YcLpHH-Y9cnfw-rthhud-oNBEuA-Y9d4Dh-C7SZzU-s8NMbC-s8QwdP-ow9GxP-oNnyjX-ow9FfS-so7mX5-oLBCB3-YQ7z6b-Y9cjMW-Y9dxkj-ruYUH-YcNcTB-rtCK2F-rtughi-N2wXpD-Ah19uJ-znpuS6-Zb99CG-ow8XKM-ZdXhGR-ZdXXZP-Z9GZVS-owa4Rw-C7TeXG-Y9cdbQ-YQ7Ksd-Z9HeRN-Y9cku7-YQ8vT7-Y9d26S-YcLoBp-so2QTL-sqqsbZ-rNv3KW-nAQxf1-nyMGMs-s6Xd2e-sqooSt-qtk6zz-s8GCES-njkTGR-s8HoDf-rMrfUu">Roberto Maxwell/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/">CC BY-NC-SA</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>It is predicted that 896 towns and villages across Japan will no longer be viable by 2040 (see map below or an interactive Japanese version <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/edit/interactive/population2014/map.html">here</a>). A former minister for internal affairs, Hiroya Masuda, <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/05/16/national/social-issues/japan-becoming-extinct/#.WlHK_iOB3aZ">describes this as “local extinction”</a>. </p>
<p>Visiting some of these towns and villages today is reminiscent of Alfonso Cuarón’s brilliantly observant movie <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/movies/article/2017/11/27/why-children-men-most-relevant-film-2017">Children of Men</a>. The film is set in 2027, two decades after humanity has lost the ability to reproduce. Schools are dilapidated and their playgrounds forever quiet. Houses are empty and in disrepair.</p>
<p>While the situation in Japan is not as bleak (yet), Masuda notes that birthrates have fallen since the 1970s and currently stand at 1.4 children per family. The most <a href="http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/e/zenkoku_e2017/pp_zenkoku2017e_gaiyou.html#e_zenkoku_II_A-1">recent projections</a> indicate that the population will shrink by 27 million between 2015 and 2053. That’s equivalent to the entire population of Australia vanishing.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/australia-doesnt-have-a-population-policy-why-78183">Australia doesn’t have a population policy – why?</a></em></p>
<hr>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201448/original/file-20180110-36009-1sq50t2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201448/original/file-20180110-36009-1sq50t2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201448/original/file-20180110-36009-1sq50t2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201448/original/file-20180110-36009-1sq50t2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201448/original/file-20180110-36009-1sq50t2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201448/original/file-20180110-36009-1sq50t2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201448/original/file-20180110-36009-1sq50t2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201448/original/file-20180110-36009-1sq50t2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In a simplified version of a map published by Hiroya Masuda in 2014, localities shown in red are predicted to become extinct by 2040.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://guzome.com/9679/日本地図-白地図-フリー-エクセル.html">guzome.com</a>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Masuda <a href="http://www.japanpolicyforum.jp/archives/politics/pt20140120152454.html">concluded</a> that municipalities experiencing a 50% decline in their young female population (aged 20-39) are most likely to go extinct.</p>
<p>At the same time, Japan is ageing rapidly. The over-65s are <a href="http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/e/zenkoku_e2017/pp_zenkoku2017e_gaiyou.html#e_zenkoku_II_A-1">estimated</a> to rise from 26.6% of the population in 2015 to 38.4% in 2065. The population age imbalances are particularly acute in rural Japan, compounded by the young migrating to big cities.</p>
<h2>What does decline look like?</h2>
<p>Japan is viewed around the globe as a cool, vibrant and extraordinary place. It attracts <a href="https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/">more than 24 million tourists each year</a>, many of whom visit Tokyo, Osaka or Kyoto and then travel via bullet train to other major cities. This urban core is the centre of population, economic and cultural activity, and it is all that most tourists see.</p>
<p>Only when you travel to rural Japan do the impacts of population decline become apparent. Last year, I spent time in two rural prefectures.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201449/original/file-20180110-36040-fwxi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201449/original/file-20180110-36040-fwxi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201449/original/file-20180110-36040-fwxi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201449/original/file-20180110-36040-fwxi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201449/original/file-20180110-36040-fwxi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201449/original/file-20180110-36040-fwxi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201449/original/file-20180110-36040-fwxi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201449/original/file-20180110-36040-fwxi4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">An abandoned farm just outside Tsuwano in Shimane Prefecture.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Barrett</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In July I visited the small town of Tsuwano in Shimane Prefecture. According to Masuda’s projections, Tsuwano will experience a 75% drop in the number of young women and its population will more than halve to 3,451 in 2040 (down from 7,500 today). In October, I visited Tokushima Prefecture in Shikoku, where the picture is very similar for most towns and villages. </p>
<p>In both locations, I came across many abandoned farms and houses. Nationally, it is estimated that unclaimed land will reach <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/10/26/national/unclaimed-land-cost-japan-%C2%A56-trillion-extend-90-size-hokkaido-2040/#.WjcS5CNL1TY">7.2 million hectares in 2040</a> (almost the size of Hokkaido and bigger than Tasmania), with a value of close to ¥6 trillion (A$7 trillion).</p>
<p>Japan’s inheritance laws are partly to blame for this situation and also explain why <a href="http://www.fujitsu.com/jp/group/fri/en/column/message/2015/2015-06-30.html">8.2 million homes</a> are vacant across the country. Fixed asset taxes on empty lots are six times higher, so it makes sense not to demolish old houses or farmsteads.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201450/original/file-20180110-36022-152hd4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201450/original/file-20180110-36022-152hd4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201450/original/file-20180110-36022-152hd4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201450/original/file-20180110-36022-152hd4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201450/original/file-20180110-36022-152hd4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=337&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201450/original/file-20180110-36022-152hd4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201450/original/file-20180110-36022-152hd4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201450/original/file-20180110-36022-152hd4a.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A boarded-up house in Tokushima Prefecture.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Barrett</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Dealing with decline</h2>
<p>Everyone in Japan is aware of the challenges posed by a rapidly ageing, declining population with low birth rates. The media cover these concerns extensively.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201451/original/file-20180110-36043-ycmtnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201451/original/file-20180110-36043-ycmtnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201451/original/file-20180110-36043-ycmtnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201451/original/file-20180110-36043-ycmtnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201451/original/file-20180110-36043-ycmtnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201451/original/file-20180110-36043-ycmtnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201451/original/file-20180110-36043-ycmtnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201451/original/file-20180110-36043-ycmtnl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">TV
presenters discuss the extinction of towns and cities.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Barrett</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Local governments have been trying to encourage people to move back to rural areas by providing work opportunities and sharing details of vacant houses.</p>
<p>This internal migration is known as “U-turn” or “I-turn”. The former describes someone returning to their hometown, while the latter refers to a person who decides to quit big city life.</p>
<p>Relocating to a small rural community, however, can be challenging. Villages and towns are close-knit communities and the returnee is expected to comply with local norms.</p>
<p>The Japanese have an expression, <em>Gō ni ireba gō ni shitagae</em>, which is equivalent to “When in Rome do as the Romans do”. Failure to do so can result in the returnee being, to use an English idiom, “sent to Coventry”. The Japanese term is <em>mura hachibu</em>, and it means you will be ignored and excluded.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201452/original/file-20180110-36037-kq0rvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201452/original/file-20180110-36037-kq0rvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/201452/original/file-20180110-36037-kq0rvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201452/original/file-20180110-36037-kq0rvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201452/original/file-20180110-36037-kq0rvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201452/original/file-20180110-36037-kq0rvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201452/original/file-20180110-36037-kq0rvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/201452/original/file-20180110-36037-kq0rvd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=504&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A morning TV show provides examples of ‘U-turners’ who have been ‘sent to Coventry’ by their rural neighbours for not trying harder to fit in.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brendan Barrett</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>More radical responses needed</h2>
<p>There are no simple answers to these challenges. The Japanese government has been very active but past policies have tended to focus on infrastructure development and construction of public facilities (roads, dams, town halls, libraries, museums, sport facilities), rather than on the economic needs and welfare of local people.</p>
<p>In this context, Masuda calls for a radical new approach with three core goals. </p>
<ol>
<li><p>Comprehensive measures are needed to help maintain existing populations in rural areas (through marriage, pregnancy, childbirth and childcare).</p></li>
<li><p>Measures should be implemented to promote population redistribution and reduce migration to big cities.</p></li>
<li><p>Policies should be introduced to enhance human resources and local skills. This includes immigration of highly trained individuals from overseas, which is <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/11/25/national/politics-diplomacy/japans-immigration-policy-rift-widens-population-decline-forces-need-foreign-workers/#.WlHQkSOB3aY">controversial</a>.</p></li>
</ol>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/migrants-are-stopping-regional-areas-from-shrinking-80740">Migrants are stopping regional areas from shrinking</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>While lots of ongoing initiatives aim to attract young people back to rural areas, the biggest concern is one of livelihoods as long-term job prospects are limited. Yuusuke Kakei covers this topic in his 2015 book <a href="http://issueplusdesign.jp">Population Decline x Design</a>, presenting proposals for new local economic activity that puts women, creativity and community at the centre. To this we should add what Joseph Coughlin describes as “<a href="https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/12/do-we-need-a-tech-boom-for-the-elderly/">The Longevity Economy</a>” to respond to the economic and technology needs of an ageing population.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.nhk.or.jp/kokusaihoudou/catch/archive/2017/02/0213.html">Interest in the notion of the universal basic income</a> has also surged recently in Japan. Some commentators argue that it could play a significant role in revitalising Japan and in making rural life more attractive to young Japanese by providing them with long-term financial security.</p>
<p>One major challenge for local economies is access to finance, especially to support new businesses. While there are several <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Property/New-funds-turn-Kyoto-s-aging-town-houses-into-inns">innovative crowdfunding initiatives</a>, Japanese municipalities should also look at the <a href="https://transitionnetwork.org">Transition Town</a> movement for inspiration with its focus on “reclaiming the economy, sparking entrepreneurship, reimagining work”.</p>
<p>Specifically, it is worth exploring the potential of <a href="https://reconomycentre.org/home/lef/">local entrepreneur forums</a>. These bring together local investors from within the towns or villages with local entrepreneurs to support new, small business ventures.</p>
<p>The result is that communities pool their resources to support young people who have business ideas but lack financial resources. This is in line with both Masuda’s and Kakei’s recommendations to focus on local needs, rather than physical buildings and infrastructure.</p>
<hr>
<p><em><strong>Further reading:</strong> <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-government-should-pick-towns-not-industries-to-fund-78464">The government should pick towns, not industries, to fund</a></em></p>
<hr>
<p>While local communities search for a way forward, it is clear that Japan is leading the world in ageing, population decline and in how to respond. <a href="https://qz.com/162788/japan-is-rapidly-losing-population-and-half-the-world-is-about-to-join-it/">Many other countries</a> are set to follow this path. We can all learn a great deal by closely examining Japan’s experience.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/88398/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Brendan Barrett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Across Japan, towns and villages are vanishing as the population ages and young people move to the cities. How the country manages this holds lessons for other developed nations facing a similar fate.Brendan Barrett, Senior Lecturer, Program Manager, Masters of International Urban and Environmental Management, RMIT UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/891682017-12-20T14:28:20Z2017-12-20T14:28:20ZThe EU turned Scotland’s Highland region into a model of economic success – will Brexit reverse that?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/200205/original/file-20171220-4980-1vn9y1n.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">GingerInc</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Perched on the furthest, wildest reaches of northern Britain, the Highlands and Islands of Scotland have historically been perceived as more economically backward than the rest of the country.</p>
<p>Framed as the “<a href="http://www.euppublishing.com/doi/full/10.3366/nor.2013.0049">Highland problem</a>” by policymakers, this stereotype led to the view that the north and west of Scotland was destined to remain in a state of underdevelopment. Despite a long <a href="http://www.euppublishing.com/doi/abs/10.3366/nor.2007.0003">history</a> of economic intervention intended to ease poverty and build wealth in the region, it wasn’t until the 1980s that continued economic assistance and, more recently, migration from the European Union caused the population of the Highlands and Islands to <a href="https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi4vor-w5TYAhUSymMKHVj3A-kQFggnMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hie.co.uk%2Fcommon%2Fhandlers%2Fdownload-document.ashx%3Fid%3Dcfe11a69-3365-400c-80ab-e6e1c9bce65c&usg=AOvVaw1Mk8RjNCzy1HcPcwQcCT6Z">grow significantly</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199912/original/file-20171219-27562-13hf2pc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199912/original/file-20171219-27562-13hf2pc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199912/original/file-20171219-27562-13hf2pc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199912/original/file-20171219-27562-13hf2pc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=735&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199912/original/file-20171219-27562-13hf2pc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=924&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199912/original/file-20171219-27562-13hf2pc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=924&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199912/original/file-20171219-27562-13hf2pc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=924&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The northwest Highlands and Islands region of Scotland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Highlands_and_Islands_(Scottish_Parliament_electoral_region).svg">Barryrob/Wikipedia</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This recent economic success has largely been the result of the injection of significant EU funds, and a willingness to use local knowledge and collaborate with local agencies.</p>
<h2>A bleak history</h2>
<p>Chronic population loss in the Highlands has traditionally been blamed on the era of estate restructuring, known as the <a href="https://books.google.ca/books?id=65A-KFw1GU8C&pg=PA548&lpg=PA548&dq=the+improvement+era+scotland&source=bl&ots=YYSJQeq9uv&sig=Y_1P-WlKBo261OVGwfHvf5ECQhs&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwianpSuvpTYAhUE1GMKHZNcA54Q6AEIQTAD#v=onepage&q=the%20improvement%20era%20scotland&f=false">Improvement Era</a> (around 1750-1850). During this period, many landlords were keen to displace their tenants from fertile valleys to the margins of their estates to make way for livestock, leaving many Highlanders without their traditional land base.</p>
<p>Some people were evicted in this early period of the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/civil_war_revolution/scotland_clearances_01.shtml">Highland Clearances</a>, but many left of their own accord in search of opportunities elsewhere. They did so for a variety of reasons, such as looking for seasonal work in factories in the rapidly industrialising <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Lowlands-region-Scotland">Lowlands</a> or leaving in search of land and opportunities in North America.</p>
<p>Though many people – up to 23-25,000 people between 1760 and 1815 alone – left during this period, the population actually rose overall from 266,000 to around 420,000 <a href="http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y1290E/y1290e0i.htm">due</a> to a relative rise in the standard of living and the widespread reliance on successful cultivation of the potato, which helped sustain families on small crofts.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199969/original/file-20171219-4951-12m79ev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/199969/original/file-20171219-4951-12m79ev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199969/original/file-20171219-4951-12m79ev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199969/original/file-20171219-4951-12m79ev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199969/original/file-20171219-4951-12m79ev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199969/original/file-20171219-4951-12m79ev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/199969/original/file-20171219-4951-12m79ev.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=520&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Golspie’s statue of the Duke of Sutherland, one of the most notorious proponents of the Highland Clearances that saw tenant farmers driven from their land and villages in the 18th century to make way for sheep.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Statue_of_the_Duke_of_Sutherland,_Ben_Braggie,_Golspie_(2994889656).jpg">John Haslam/Wiki</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Yet social commentators like <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/johnson_samuel.shtml">Samuel Johnson</a> gave the public the impression that there was an “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=ent_AwAAQBAJ&pg=PT110&lpg=PT110&dq=epidemical+fury+of+emigration+samuel+johnson&source=bl&ots=29S8BV_MzH&sig=ahYIjZAWmsXmrrC8DChHjxQqqJk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj4mPGsiZbYAhWZF8AKHXNmBK8Q6AEIKjAB#v=onepage&q=epidemical%20fury%20of%20emigration%20samuel%20johnson&f=false">epidemical fury of emigration</a>”. In fact, there were <a href="http://atrium.lib.uoguelph.ca/xmlui/handle/10214/8388">efforts</a> in this period by optimistic landlords to end poverty and prevent emigration through the provision of employment and infrastructure using private and government funds.</p>
<p>This led, for example, to the formation of the <a href="http://www.angusmacleodarchive.org.uk/view/index.php?path=%2F8.+The+Fishing+Industry+in+Lewis+and+Scotland%2F2.+History+of+the+Herring+Fishery+to+the+1880s%2F2.+The+British+Fisheries+Society.pdf">British Fisheries Society</a> in the late 18th century, which laid the foundations for later success in the herring industry, and saw massive expansion of roads, bridges and canals.</p>
<p>But change did not come soon enough. When the Napoleonic Wars ended in 1815, the economy of the Highlands collapsed. Britain’s war machine was the major market for the limited number of Highland products and employment (in this case, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-33080291">soldiers</a>), and with its loss, the area plunged into economic despair and <a href="http://www.gutenberg.us/articles/highland_potato_famine_(1846_-_1857)">famine</a>. Thousands of people were either evicted or emigrated. It was during the period of large-scale evictions that landlord-led economic intervention ended and chronic depopulation began.</p>
<p>By 1951, the Highlands had a population of only 309,000 and one of the highest unemployment rates in Britain. This caused <a href="https://www.gale.com/uk/c/picture-post-historical-archive">Picture Post magazine</a> to declare in 1953 that this was “<a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=9CPK__7S3zkC&pg=PT99&lpg=PT99&dq=picture+post+called+the+Highlands+the+most+gravely+depressed+area+in+britain&source=bl&ots=G5ID3At2Ir&sig=AbKVS5ZpOtNGcIX49CjK6tfnqmY&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwji9Nmzm5bYAhULvhQKHWnvBKcQ6AEIJzAA#v=onepage&q=picture%20post%20called%20the%20Highlands%20the%20most%20gravely%20depressed%20area%20in%20britain&f=false">Britain’s most gravely depressed area</a>”.</p>
<p>Though intermittent government intervention from the late 19th century to the post-World War II period – such as the <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Vict/49-50/29/contents">Crofter’s Act of 1886</a>, various land settlement acts and the formation of the <a href="http://www.hie.co.uk/about-hie/default.html">Highlands and Islands Development Board</a> in 1965 – may have increased access to land and bolstered salmon farming, energy and tourism, it was unable to stem population loss in the region, especially that of young people seeking opportunities elsewhere.</p>
<h2>Boom time</h2>
<p>But all this changed in the 1980s when the EU targeted the area for <a href="http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM:g24203">transitional support funding</a>, designed to boost the economic prospects of an area “lagging behind”. Since then, sustained and customised assistance from the EU has led to huge advances in economic development, bringing unprecedented wealth to the region as innovative local industries, and in particular small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs), have benefited from that support.</p>
<p>In particular, transport (roads and ferries), culture, biotech, tourism, life sciences, food and drink, financial and business services, resource extraction and energy investment have flourished through local partnerships and the transfer of local knowledge to international markets.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HMCgSf-QSKo?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">EU funding helped create a green and self-sufficient energy supply for the island of Eigg. YouTube.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Most notable was the EU’s support for the creation of the <a href="https://www.uhi.ac.uk/en/">University of the Highlands and Islands</a> in 2011, thanks to European funds invested in IT, research development, course development and delivery, and widening access to more remote communities.</p>
<p>As a result, there has been significant population growth and retention in recent years, especially of young people who, in former times, left in large numbers for universities and jobs in the south or abroad.</p>
<h2>Forward or backward?</h2>
<p>EU citizens migrating to the Highlands to fill the growing number of jobs in the region have boosted its population and its economy; in recent years, <a href="https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwif1JzDtJfYAhVRxWMKHV6qA6EQFggtMAE&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hie.co.uk%2Fcommon%2Fhandlers%2Fdownload-document.ashx%3Fid%3D6e4ca483-1954-4858-9ec9-40cc96b6e5bc&usg=AOvVaw2DBnveKdzSNfZ1yxyz5PGV">62%</a> of migrant workers to the Highlands have come from the EU.</p>
<p>In 2011, the population of the Highlands was 466,112 – the highest ever recorded – a figure that, at the current rate of increase was expected to <a href="https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi4vor-w5TYAhUSymMKHVj3A-kQFggnMAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hie.co.uk%2Fcommon%2Fhandlers%2Fdownload-document.ashx%3Fid%3Dcfe11a69-3365-400c-80ab-e6e1c9bce65c&usg=AOvVaw1Mk8RjNCzy1HcPcwQcCT6Z">rise</a> to about half a million by around 2031. But with the announcement of Brexit in 2015, this is looking less certain. With 23% of small businesses currently employing EU nationals, there are <a href="http://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/15243417.Small_firm_closure_fears_as_Brexit_threatens_staff/">fears</a> over recruitment issues in the future.</p>
<p>Thanks to the EU, what was once considered to be a problem is now a model of economic success for similar developing regions. With Brexit on the horizon, an area enjoying some of the fastest growth in the UK is being directly threatened by the inevitable end to EU investment which will run out in <a href="https://beta.gov.scot/policies/european-structural-funds/">2020</a>.</p>
<p>As the Highland region is still considered “transitional” by the EU, and therefore in need of <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/commissioners/2014-2019/cretu/announcements/eu-invest-over-1-billion-euro-scotland-research-innovation-and-resource-efficient-economy_en">support</a>, it will rely heavily on the UK government’s <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/aug/13/philip-hammond-treasury-to-guarantee-post-brexit-funding-for-eu-backed-projects">pledge</a> to continue “projects currently funded by the EU”. </p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether or not the UK government will invest in the future of the Highlands to the level the EU has done. If it doesn’t, it seems likely that many will leave in search of opportunities elsewhere – a scenario with a long and regrettable history in the Highlands.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/89168/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Katie Louise McCullough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>After centuries of decline and depolulation, the Highlands have thrived under the EU. Now Brexit threatens to turn back the clock.Katie Louise McCullough, Director, Centre for Scottish Studies, Simon Fraser UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.