# Articles on Probability

## Can math solve the congressional districting problem?

The gerrymandered district has been part of the US political landscape for two centuries. Impartial math suggests several methods for drawing fair, competitive congressional districts.

## Three problems with the way we think about nuclear power

Our natural difficulties in thinking about the future, low probabilities and considering risk make many of our views about nuclear power problematic.

## In all probability, economic forecasts are probably wrong

Unpredictability is omnipresent in life, from dealing playing cards, through contracting an illness or getting promoted, to the rise or fall of equity markets. For those attempting to make the calls on…

## Can predictions of ‘barbecue summer’ ever be reliable?

As notorious weather predictions go, the “barbecue summer” of 2009 is up there with Michael Fish’s dismissal of the incoming 1987 hurricane. The summer turned out to be wet and windy, and questions were…

## How statistics can help in the mission to find MH370

That the Malaysian government, with the help of the UK’s INMARSAT, was able to dramatically narrow down the search area for flight MH370, made it seem much more likely that the wreckage of the plane might…

## In science, the only certainty is uncertainty

In the lead up to the release next month of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fifth Assessment Report we are exploring concepts of confidence and certainty in climate science. You…

## The birthday problem: what are the odds of sharing b-days?

How many people do you have to put into a room before you are guaranteed that at least two of them share a birthday? We all know and love the blissful feeling of winning an argument. Well, trust me, that’s…

## The Monty Hall problem: going with your gut will get your goat

The game show host adjusts his bow tie and flashes you an oh-so-wicked smile as he brings your attention to three closed doors. “Behind one of these doors is the prize of your dreams!” he announces excitedly…

## If you want to roll the climate dice, you should know the odds

Imagine a six-sided die with four red faces, one green face and one blue face. I am going to roll the die, and before rolling I will ask you to predict which colour it will land on: red, green or blue…