tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/queensland-election-factcheck-46056/articlesQueensland election factcheck – The Conversation2017-11-24T02:50:36Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/870162017-11-24T02:50:36Z2017-11-24T02:50:36ZFactCheck: did the Northbridge WA curfew see a ‘dramatic drop’ in crime?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/193702/original/file-20171108-6725-1jxno3v.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A curfew was introduced in Northbridge WA as part of a wider push aimed at protecting child welfare and making the suburb safer.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/kaex0r414/279185079/in/photolist-qETZR-7e5PM1-9hfn35-7MiDHJ-7MeG8e-esJFNv-CL8zM-esMX3j-7MiDDG-7MeG9a-GLrgtx-sD87e1-smHr2G-7e5LNQ-pGTL6D-as3UaR-eXF6ix-8AgpEc-8AgpUD-8AjudL-bvVaq1-9Thyue-sDj68z-KhZvyS-WHNQpW-9KJ3BN-9KJ3EJ-9KJ3sy-egnwuG-KiESiP-eggLGk-efcsbt-iVAL-egnwmE-iVAM-efi9ym-efcqY4-CaR3r-egnwpy-efcnAD-egnw3h-mCoJ-FKZVyv-egnwab-3t5Gkf-gjzm84-8dGWdt-8t945o-y7f2H-8t63jR">kaex0r/flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>WA Labor Premier Geoff Gallop actually put in place a curfew in the Northbridge precinct in 2003 and it has been enforced ever since. The Northbridge example saw a dramatic drop in crime and a reduction in the anti-social behaviour of young people.</p>
<p><strong>– Liberal National Party of Queensland leader Tim Nicholls, quoted in a <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2017/queensland-election-2017-lnp-plans-curfew-for-townsville-youths/news-story/a762977ad741318e7fdc013a17672f72">campaign announcement</a>, November 2, 2017</strong> </p>
</blockquote>
<p>If elected, Queensland’s Liberal National Party has said it will <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/lnp/pages/3888/attachments/original/1509525562/Policy_North_Queensland_Crime_Action_Plan.pdf?1509525562">trial a curfew</a> banning children under the age of 16 from being on some Townsville streets without adult supervision after 10pm.</p>
<p>Announcing the policy, Liberal National Party leader Tim Nicholls <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/state-election-2017/queensland-election-2017-lnp-plans-curfew-for-townsville-youths/news-story/a762977ad741318e7fdc013a17672f72">said</a> the introduction of a youth curfew in the Western Australian suburb of Northbridge in 2003 had seen a “dramatic drop in crime and a reduction in the anti-social behaviour of young people”.</p>
<p>Is that right?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>A spokesperson for Tim Nicholls pointed The Conversation to a <a href="https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Carpenter/2006/12/Northbridge-curfew-achieves-reduction-in-juvenile-anti-social-behaviour.aspx">2006 media release</a> from the then-WA Labor premier, Alan Carpenter.</p>
<p>Carpenter had stated that in the three years following its introduction, the curfew had reduced anti-social behaviour among juveniles, and reduced the number of young people apprehended or charged by police. </p>
<p>The statement was based on a policy review conducted by the Office of Crime Prevention. That report is no longer available online, and WA Police and the Liberal National Party were unable to provide a copy.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>There is no evidence to support Tim Nicholls’ claim that the youth curfew in Northbridge WA “saw a dramatic drop in crime”.</p>
<p>Reported crime in Northbridge actually <em>increased</em> in the four years following the introduction of the curfew in 2003. </p>
<p>Since 2007 there has been a reduction in crime in Northbridge, but this is also true of neighbouring suburbs that have never had a curfew.</p>
<p>Police data and interviews with local stakeholders <em>do</em> indicate a reduction in anti-social behaviour in Northbridge. However, academic research suggests this is due to young people congregating in other suburbs where there is less surveillance.</p>
<h2>What was introduced in Northbridge, WA?</h2>
<p>In June 2003, the then-WA Labor premier, Geoff Gallop, introduced a <a href="https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Gallop/2003/06/Premier-unveils-Northbridge-curfew-policy.aspx">“curfew policy”</a> for the Perth suburb of Northbridge. The policy was introduced as part of a broader suite of measures aimed at protecting child welfare and making the inner-city suburb and entertainment precinct safer. </p>
<p>Under the Northbridge curfew as it was introduced in 2003: </p>
<ul>
<li>“pre-teenage” children not under the immediate care of a parent or responsible adult were not allowed on the streets of Northbridge after dark, and</li>
<li>a 10pm restriction applied for unsupervised children aged 13 to 15.</li>
</ul>
<p>Between 2003 and 2011 <a href="https://www.dcp.wa.gov.au/Documents/YoungPeopleInNorthbridgeProject.pdf">that curfew</a> was managed by successive Coalition and Labor state government agencies, as a formal collaboration between the WA police (in particular the Juvenile Aid Group), the Department of Child Protection, Mission Australia, and several other agencies.</p>
<p>In 2012, the task was <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajs4.17/full">outsourced</a> to <a href="http://sd.missionaustralia.com.au/293-youthbeat-wa">Mission Australia</a>. </p>
<p>Whether the <em>exact</em> terms of the original curfew are still in place is less clear. A spokesperson for WA Police told The Conversation there was “no ‘curfew’ as such in place in Northbridge”.</p>
<p>However, the spokesperson confirmed that WA Police, together with Mission Australia, the Department of Child Protection and Family Support and Noongar Outreach Services, do continue to focus on young people on the street at night who may be “deemed in need of care and protection” – particularly in the entertainment precincts of Perth and Northbridge.</p>
<p>Mission Australia WA state director Jo Sadler told The Conversation its case managers engage with young people who have been “picked up by police for being on the street at night”. </p>
<p>There has been debate about the use of the term “curfew” in this situation. But it’s largely a <a href="https://www.indigenousjustice.gov.au/resources/evaluation-of-indigenous-justice-programs-project-d-safe-aboriginal-youth-patrol-programs-in-new-south-wales-and-northbridge-policy-and-juvenile-aid-group-in-western-australia/">technical debate</a>, and given that most people, including Nicholls, consistently refer to “a curfew”, for the purposes of this FactCheck, we will do the same.</p>
<p>It’s important to note that throughout the years, the curfew has not been <em>solely</em> about getting children and young people off the streets. Community agencies <a href="https://www.dcp.wa.gov.au/Documents/YoungPeopleInNorthbridgeProject.pdf">have</a> and continue to assist in ensuring children are reconnected with their families or taken to safe accommodation, and offered support to address the underlying issues that may have led to them being unsupervised at night.</p>
<p>You can read more about the support services offered <a href="http://sd.missionaustralia.com.au/293-youthbeat-wa">here</a>. </p>
<h2>Was there a ‘dramatic drop in crime’ following the Northbridge curfew?</h2>
<p>To test Nicholls’ claim we can look at Western Australian Police Force <a href="https://www.police.wa.gov.au/Crime/Crime-Statistics-Portal">crime incident data</a>. This includes the number of incidents of robbery (theft from a person), burglary (breaking and entering and stealing), graffiti, assault, and theft of a motor vehicle.</p>
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<p>The data show that crime actually <em>increased</em> in Northbridge following the introduction of the curfew in 2003. </p>
<p>In 2002 there were 901 crimes reported across the different categories. This rose to 1,508 in 2007, mainly driven by an increase in assaults and a spike in reported graffiti.</p>
<p>After peaking in 2007, recorded crime decreased again and is now below the levels of 2003. The total for 2016 was 539 crimes.</p>
<p>Those are the raw numbers. But I’ve also examined the monthly counts of crime using an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoregressive_integrated_moving_average">ARIMA analysis</a> – which accounts for seasonality and trends in the data – to give us a better picture.</p>
<p>This analysis also shows no evidence that crime decreased after June 2003, when the curfew was introduced. There is an indication that crime – and in particular robbery – declined significantly in Northbridge six years later, in 2008. (We look at robbery offences specifically because this is an offence that’s likely to occur in a public space.) </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.dcp.wa.gov.au/Documents/YoungPeopleInNorthbridgeProject.pdf">2011 report</a> from the WA Department of Child Protection also highlighted the decrease in robbery offences between 2007-2008 and 2009-2010. </p>
<p>However, this trend was reflective of a broader reduction in robbery in Western Australia. </p>
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<p>The reduction in crime was also evident in nearby areas, including the suburb of Perth (which we’ll refer to as Perth). Similar to Northbridge, Perth experienced high levels of crime in 2004. After experiencing some reprieve in 2005 and 2006, crime in Perth peaked in 2007. As with Northbridge, crime levels dropped steadily after 2007 - despite there being no curfew in Perth.</p>
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<p>Crime incident data isn’t perfect. It doesn’t capture all offending. Some minor offences are not recorded by police – instead the individual is given a warning. And some victims don’t report their victimisation.</p>
<p>But the data as it stands does not support claims of a “dramatic drop in crime” in Northbridge following the introduction of the curfew.</p>
<h2>Was there a reduction in anti-social behaviour?</h2>
<p>Crime Stoppers Western Australia defines “anti-social behaviour” as that which “disturbs, annoys or interferes with someone’s ability to go about their lawful business”. You can read the types of behaviours that meet the definition <a href="https://www.crimestopperswa.com.au/keeping-safe/anti-social-behaviour/">here</a>. </p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Carpenter/2006/12/Northbridge-curfew-achieves-reduction-in-juvenile-anti-social-behaviour.aspx">2006 media release</a>
from then-WA Labor premier Alan Carpenter said the state government’s Northbridge curfew had “cut the number of unsupervised juveniles roaming the area at night by 35% and reduced the level of anti-social behaviour by juveniles”.</p>
<p>Carpenter claimed there had been a reduction in: </p>
<ul>
<li>the number of young people apprehended or charged by police, and</li>
<li>interactions between the WA Police Juvenile Aid Group and unsupervised young people. </li>
</ul>
<p>Unfortunately, the report cited in the media release is <a href="http://www.crimeprevention.wa.gov.au/">no longer available online</a>. The Conversation requested a copy from WA Police, but a spokesperson said the department couldn’t locate a copy.</p>
<p>However, more up-to-date figures from the WA Police were provided in a detailed <a href="https://www.indigenousjustice.gov.au/resources/evaluation-of-indigenous-justice-programs-project-d-safe-aboriginal-youth-patrol-programs-in-new-south-wales-and-northbridge-policy-and-juvenile-aid-group-in-western-australia/">2014 report</a> into the Northbridge Policy Project - of which the curfew was one part.</p>
<p>The report confirmed that the number of young people who came into contact with police in Northbridge was lower after the policy was in place.</p>
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<p>The authors of the 2014 report concluded that <em>overall</em> the Northbridge Policy Project had reduced anti-social and nuisance behaviour perpetrated by young people in Northbridge.</p>
<p>The report’s conclusions were based on the police data as well as interviews with stakeholders including policymakers, business operators, and representatives of youth organisations in Northbridge.</p>
<p>Although the report concluded that anti-social behaviour in Northbridge had declined, the authors noted that many of the children and young people were congregating in other nearby areas, particularly the suburb of Burswood – which is a short train ride from Northbridge and where there was less surveillance.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajs4.17/full">academic review published in 2017</a> also reported on the displacement of young people to other suburbs. The authors wrote that the: </p>
<blockquote>
<p>… previously documented successes of the curfew for crime protection and child protection had been achieved through displacement of young people to other locations that neither reduced crime nor increase safety.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>What’s the bottom line?</h2>
<p>There is no evidence that the curfew reduced crime in Northbridge. Recorded crime actually increased in the four years after the curfew was introduced. Crime began to fall consistently after 2007, but similar reductions were seen in neighbouring suburbs that did not have a curfew.</p>
<p>The evidence <em>does</em> indicate a reduction in the number of young people coming into contact with police in Northbridge. However, <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajs4.17/full">academic research suggests</a> this is due to the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-05/review-of-curfew-needed-as-new-hotspots-emerge/4735266">displacement</a> of young people to other suburbs.</p>
<p>It’s difficult to isolate the impact of the curfew from the other aspects of the Northbridge Policy Project or indeed from <a href="http://www.aic.gov.au/crime_community/crimeprevention/localgovt/wa.html">other strategies</a> that were implemented by the state government and Perth council after 2003. These included the <a href="https://www.perth.wa.gov.au/sites/default/files/Safe%20City%20brochure.pdf">SafeCity Strategy</a>, which involved increased CCTV surveillance, lighting and roaming security officers.</p>
<p>However, Nicholls’ claim that the curfew resulted in “a dramatic drop in crime and a reduction in the anti-social behaviour of young people” is not supported by the available evidence. <strong>– Renee Zahnow</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This FactCheck is a thorough review of the available evidence and its conclusions are sound. </p>
<p>Empirical studies into curfews have been inconclusive, with some suggesting that they have <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0002716202250944?journalCode=anna&">little impact</a> on crime reduction, while others suggest they can have a <a href="https://eml.berkeley.edu/%7Epkline/papers/curfews_resubmit.pdf">positive effect</a> in reducing crime.</p>
<p>In the current case, the data would support the conclusion that the Northbridge curfew had little effect on crime. <strong>– Terry Goldsworthy</strong></p>
<hr>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Tim Nicholls said the introduction of a youth curfew in the WA suburb of Northbridge ‘saw a dramatic drop in crime and a reduction in the anti-social behaviour of young people’. Is that right?Renee Zahnow, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute for Social Science Research, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/874372017-11-22T01:16:53Z2017-11-22T01:16:53ZFactCheck: does the Safe Schools program contain ‘highly explicit material’?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194738/original/file-20171115-11296-14ajkw2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One Nation Queensland leader Steve Dickson has been publicly critical of the Safe Schools program.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Regi Varghese</span></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>It contains highly explicit material directed at young children in their most formative years …</p>
<p><strong>– One Nation Queensland leader Steve Dickson, making reference to the Safe Schools program in a <a href="http://www.stevedickson.com.au/media-release/queensland-leader-of-one-nation-insists-that-the-controversial-safe-schools-program-be-permanently-abolished/">One Nation media release</a>, November 13, 2017.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>At a recent press conference discussing One Nation’s policies for “protecting the whole family unit”, One Nation Queensland leader Steve Dickson <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-11/annastacia-palaszczuk-rubbishes-one-nations-safe-schools-claim/9141520">claimed that</a> female students in Grade 4 were “being taught by teachers how to masturbate, how to strap on dildos, how to do this sort of stuff” under the Safe Schools program.</p>
<p>While Dickson later apologised for the “specific words” he used, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-14/one-nation-mp-steve-dickson-sorry-wording-safe-schools-claims/9147210">he went on to say</a> the information resource does contain “highly explicit material” that is being “directed at young children”.</p>
<p>Let’s look at the facts.</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>The Conversation contacted Steve Dickson’s office to request sources and comment, but did not hear back before deadline.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>One Nation Queensland leader Steve Dickson’s claim that the Safe Schools program “contains highly explicit material directed at young children in their formative years” is incorrect.</p>
<p>There is no discussion of the details of specific sex acts, sex aids or sexual health in Safe Schools resources. </p>
<p>Safe Schools is an optional resource for schools and teachers. Its aim is to help school staff create safer and more inclusive environments for LGBTI students and families. </p>
<h2>What is the Safe Schools program?</h2>
<p>The Victorian government <a href="http://www.education.vic.gov.au/about/programs/health/Pages/safe-schools-coalition.aspx?Redirect=1#link93">first established</a> the <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/">Safe Schools Coalition Australia</a> in 2010. It’s now a <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/our-supporters/organisations">national network</a> convened by the <a href="https://www.fya.org.au/our-programs/">Foundation for Young Australians</a>, and delivered by <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/contact-us">partner organisations</a> in several states and territories.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/resources">published aim</a> of the Safe Schools Coalition is:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>… to help school staff create safer and more inclusive environments for same-sex-attracted, intersex and gender-diverse students, school staff and families.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The program provides <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/resources">optional resources</a> for secondary schools, including professional development for teachers and one <a href="https://www.studentwellbeinghub.edu.au/resources/detail?id=72144922-d5c5-6d32-997d-ff0000a69c30#/">classroom-level teaching resource</a>, “All of Us”, designed for Year 7 and 8 students, who are generally aged between 11 and 14.</p>
<p>Safe Schools is supported in some form by several state and territory governments. But it is not a compulsory part of the curriculum in any Australian jurisdiction.</p>
<p>Safe Schools received <a href="https://www.education.gov.au/news/safe-schools-coalition-australia-launched">federal funding</a> for four years, <a href="http://www.safeschoolscoalition.org.au/from-a-safe-schools-coalition-australia-ssca-spokesperson-4">but this ended in June 2017</a>. Some state and territory governments have committed to continue funding Safe Schools to make it available for government schools. </p>
<h2>The Safe Schools review</h2>
<p>In February 2016 I was asked by the federal education minister, Simon Birmingham, to review the resources given to schools under Safe Schools. I reported on the extent to which the resources were:</p>
<ul>
<li>consistent with the program’s aims</li>
<li>suitable and robust</li>
<li>age-appropriate</li>
<li>educationally sound, and </li>
<li>aligned to the Australian curriculum.</li>
</ul>
<p>Broadly, I <a href="https://docs.education.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/review_of_appropriateness_and_efficacy_of_the_ssca_program_resources_0.pdf">found</a> that the materials were consistent with the program’s aims, and suitable and appropriate for use in schools.</p>
<p>I recommended schools be given official guidelines around the context in which certain materials should be available, as well as around the suitability of material available on third-party websites recommended in the Safe Schools resources.</p>
<p>At that time, I found no school had implemented the whole eight-lesson “All of Us” classroom program, and that it was reasonable for teachers to decide how many of the resources to use based on their own school policy.</p>
<h2>How did the government respond?</h2>
<p>In response to my review, the <a href="https://ministers.education.gov.au/birmingham/statement-safe-schools-coalition">federal government introduced</a> a series of changes to the way Safe Schools operated. </p>
<p>Some lesson plans for the “All of Us” classroom resource were amended or removed to ensure they were suitable for all students and appropriate for their target age group. Some other resources were restricted to use in one-on-one discussions between students and key qualified staff.</p>
<p>The government recommended that schools consult with parents and parent bodies regarding the implementation of Safe Schools, and local program managers were required to ensure the distribution of the program was restricted to secondary schools only.</p>
<p>You can read more about those recommendations and changes <a href="https://ministers.education.gov.au/birmingham/statement-safe-schools-coalition">here</a>.</p>
<p>Not all states and territories implemented all of the changes, and as mentioned earlier, federal funding of the program has now ceased. You can read more about how Safe Schools is offered across Australia in this <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-will-safe-schools-be-mandatory-if-same-sex-marriage-is-legalised-84437">recent FactCheck</a>. It’s worth reiterating that the level of any school’s engagement with the program is optional. </p>
<h2>Does Safe Schools contain ‘highly explicit material’?</h2>
<p>The words “highly explicit” will mean different things to different people. </p>
<p>But there is certainly no discussion of the details of specific sex acts or sex aids or sexual health in the “All of Us” classroom resource or any other resources currently offered as part of Safe Schools.</p>
<p>The government’s changes meant the Safe Schools curriculum resource <a href="https://www.studentwellbeinghub.edu.au/docs/default-source/all-of-us-online-version-may-2016-v3-pdf2af89fb756c645d9b8492a68a39765f6.pdf?sfvrsn=0">“All of Us”</a>, which is designed for teachers to use with Year 7 and Year 8 students, was revised.</p>
<p>Any web links to third-party websites that may have contained material that some might consider explicit were removed. Birmingham’s changes included ensuring that any web links were government-funded organisations.</p>
<p>As it stands today, “All of Us” contains material on sexual diversity, homophobia and transphobia, gender identity and stereotypes, intersex characteristics, supportive and disrespectful behaviours, and school strategies to create a safer environment for LGBTI people. <strong>– Bill Louden</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This is a sound FactCheck. </p>
<p>The author is correct: the Safe Schools Coalition provides optional resources for schools and educators, primarily designed to support gender diversity and same-sex attracted young people. The resources <em>do not</em> reference masturbation, or teach about sex toys or sex aids. </p>
<p>While federal government funding of the Safe Schools Coalition Australia program has completed, select Safe Schools resources are available on the <a href="studentwellbeinghub.edu.au">Student Wellbeing Hub</a>, which is funded by the Australian Department of Education. </p>
<p>Safe Schools does offer support and resources to primary school educators, but this is strictly on request only. Again, resources for primary schools <em>do not</em> teach or discuss or reference masturbation, or sex toys.</p>
<p>The author is correct that the <a href="https://www.studentwellbeinghub.edu.au/docs/default-source/all-of-us-online-version-may-2016-v3-pdf2af89fb756c645d9b8492a68a39765f6.pdf?sfvrsn=0">“All of Us”</a> resource is a health and physical education resource designed for years 7 and 8 students. It <em>does not</em> teach or discuss or reference masturbation, or sex toys. <strong>– Emma Rowe</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking the Queensland election. If you see a ‘fact’ you’d like checked, let us know by sending a note via <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>, <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> or <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a>. The Conversation <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversation-is-fact-checking-the-queensland-election-and-we-want-to-hear-from-you-86779">thanks James Cook University</a> for its support.</strong></p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/162128/original/image-20170323-13486-72k52f.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
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<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87437/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill Louden has received funding in the past from state and federal governments. He was previously on the board of the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority (ACARA). In 2016, Bill Louden was commissioned by Education Minister Simon Birmingham to conduct an independent review into the appropriateness and efficacy of the Safe Schools Coalition Australia program resources.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Emma Rowe receives funding from National Centre for Student Equity in Higher Education. </span></em></p>One Nation Queensland leader Steve Dickson said the Safe Schools program contained ‘highly explicit material’ that is being ‘directed at young children’. We asked the experts to look at the facts.Bill Louden, Emeritus professor, The University of Western AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/873152017-11-16T05:21:40Z2017-11-16T05:21:40ZFactCheck: has Queensland Labor created ‘more than four times’ as many jobs as the LNP?<blockquote>
<p>… we have created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government. <strong>– Queensland Labor <a href="https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20213/alpq_skilling_queenslanders_for_work_policy_document_final_.pdf">Work Ready Queensland</a> policy document, November 2, 2017.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>With unemployment in Queensland running above the national average – more than double the national average in some parts of the state – promises and claims about jobs growth are front and centre of the Labor Party campaign. </p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.queenslandlabor.org/media/20213/alpq_skilling_queenslanders_for_work_policy_document_final_.pdf">policy document</a> released at the start of the election campaign, Queensland Labor said it had “created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government”.</p>
<p>Are those numbers correct? And can Labor fairly claim to have “created” those jobs?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>When asked for sources to support the statement, a spokesperson for Annastacia Palaszczuk pointed The Conversation to Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument">trend data</a> for total employed persons from March 2012 to September 2017.</p>
<p>In summary, the spokesperson said that between March 2012 (when Campbell Newman was elected) and January 2015 (when Palaszczuk was elected), job numbers rose by 29,000. This was compared to an increase of 122,500 jobs between January 2015 and September 2017.</p>
<p>The spokesperson noted that 29,000 jobs is “less than one-quarter of 122,500”.</p>
<p>But calculating those numbers is not that simple.</p>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>Queensland Labor said it had “created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government”.</p>
<p>There is no <em>definitive</em> way to calculate this number. On some measures, the statement is correct. On other measures, it’s an overstatement.</p>
<p>Job numbers increased by somewhere between 117,380 and 122,500 during the Palaszczuk government’s term. That’s between 3.4 and 4.2 times the jobs growth under the Newman government.</p>
<p>Whichever way you look at it, it’s fair to say that employment increased significantly more during the Palaszczuk government’s term than the Newman government’s.</p>
<p>Can Labor claim to have “created” those jobs?</p>
<p>No, that’s not entirely fair. State government policy is only one of many factors that determine employment dynamics. Changes in employment levels are never solely due to the efforts of any one government.</p>
<h2>Did Labor ‘create’ 122,500 jobs under Palaszczuk?</h2>
<p>We can see how many jobs have been created in Queensland in recent years by looking at <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6202.0Sep%202017?OpenDocument">Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force data</a>.</p>
<p>The data show that more jobs were created under the Labor government led by Annastacia Palaszczuk than under the Liberal National Party (LNP) government led by Campbell Newman (and in which Tim Nicholls was treasurer).</p>
<iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/r1FX8/3/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen" webkitallowfullscreen="webkitallowfullscreen" mozallowfullscreen="mozallowfullscreen" oallowfullscreen="oallowfullscreen" msallowfullscreen="msallowfullscreen" width="100%" height="500"></iframe>
<p>Exactly how many more jobs were created? Well, that’s not quite as simple to calculate as you might think. </p>
<p>Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force data are available on a monthly basis. To see how employment levels have changed, we look at employment figures in the month <em>before</em> the start of a government, and in the last month of that government.</p>
<p>Newman took office on March 26, 2012. So, March 2012 can be considered the last month before the beginning of the Newman LNP government.</p>
<p>But it’s slightly trickier to match the monthly data against the point when the Newman government ended and the Palaszczuk government began. That’s because we’re working with monthly data, and Palaszczuk took office in the middle of a month – on February 14, 2015.</p>
<p>Palaszczuk’s office told The Conversation they considered January 2015 as the end of the Newman government. That’s consistent with the fact that the election was held on January 31, 2015.</p>
<p>But it also means all the jobs created in the two weeks in February 2015 before Palaszczuk took office are attributed to the Labor government. </p>
<p>So, in the context of looking at monthly employment data, should we could consider February 2015, or January 2015, to be the last month before the beginning of the Palaszczuk government?</p>
<p>In my view, there are arguments for and against both of these options. So I’m going to show you the numbers based on three scenarios:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>we attribute jobs growth in February 2015 to the LNP government;</p></li>
<li><p>we attribute jobs growth in February 2015 to the Labor government; and</p></li>
<li><p>we attribute 50% of the jobs growth to the LNP government, and 50% to Labor.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>The numbers presented are until September 2017.</p>
<p>The table shows the outcome of each scenario and the total change in employment. That’s the difference in the total number of people employed at the end and start of the government. </p>
<p><iframe id="oMtDq" class="tc-infographic-datawrapper" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/oMtDq/2/" height="400px" width="100%" style="border: none" frameborder="0"></iframe></p>
<h2>Scenario #1: Labor’s claim is incorrect</h2>
<p>If we attribute the jobs growth for February 2015 to the LNP, then Labor’s claim is incorrect. Using this measure, total employment increased by 117,380 under the Palaszczuk government, compared to 34,170 under the Newman government.</p>
<p>That means that 3.4 more times jobs were created under Labor than the LNP – not “more than four times”.</p>
<h2>Scenario #2: Labor’s claim is verified</h2>
<p>If we attribute the jobs growth for February 2015 to Labor, then the party’s statement is verified: total employment increased by 122,550 under the Palaszczuk government, compared to an increase of 28,990 jobs under the Newman government. </p>
<p>In this scenario, 4.2 more times jobs were created under Labor than LNP – so it is “more than four times”, as Queensland Labor said.</p>
<h2>Scenario #3: Labor’s claim is a slight overstatement</h2>
<p>If we split the difference – with half of February 2015 allocated to each government – then the data show an increase of 119,960 jobs under the Palaszczuk government, compared to an increase of 31,580 jobs under the Newman government. </p>
<p>That amounts to 3.8 times more jobs under Palaszczuk – below Labor’s original “more than four times” claim, albeit by an economically small margin.</p>
<p>So, what’s the bottom line? </p>
<p>On some measures, the statement is numerically correct. On others, it is a slight overstatement. Either way you look at it, it’s fair to say that employment increased significantly more during the term of the Palaszczuk government.</p>
<h2>Can Queensland Labor claim to have ‘created’ these jobs?</h2>
<p>No, that’s not entirely fair. State government policy is only one of many factors that determine employment dynamics in a given period of time. Changes in employment levels are never solely due to the efforts of any one government.</p>
<p>Other factors that influence employment levels include (and are certainly not limited to): </p>
<ul>
<li><p>federal policies;</p></li>
<li><p>economic conditions in trading partner countries;</p></li>
<li><p>changes in the international price of commodities; and </p></li>
<li><p>variations in the level of the interest rate and/or the exchange rate.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>It is difficult to establish with certainty the relative contribution to employment growth of each of these factors. <strong>– Fabrizio Carmignani</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This is a sound and balanced FactCheck. </p>
<p>Whichever approach to measurement is used, the verdict – that total Queensland employment has grown more rapidly under Labor than under the Liberal National Party – is correct.</p>
<p>I agree with the author that there is some difficulty in knowing precisely when to “start the clock” on the Queensland Labor government. </p>
<p>In my view, treating the whole month of February 2015 as part of Labor’s term (as Queensland Labor did in its policy document) is the least convincing approach, as Labor did not begin to govern until the second half of that month. But I commend the author’s thoroughness in showing the numerical consequences of the different approaches in their three scenarios.</p>
<p>The author is correct in pointing out that no government can claim sole responsibility for any change in employment during its term. The political cycle rarely aligns with the economic cycle. I am sceptical about whether any government deserves the full credit – or blame – for economic developments that happen on its watch.</p>
<p>This is especially true of state governments, which are often at the mercy of larger forces. The author rightly mentions the wide array of national and international factors that reach far beyond Queensland’s borders. <strong>– Joshua Healy</strong></p>
<hr>
<p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking the Queensland election. If you see a ‘fact’ you’d like checked, let us know by sending a note via <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>, <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> or <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a>. The Conversation <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversation-is-fact-checking-the-queensland-election-and-we-want-to-hear-from-you-86779">thanks James Cook University</a> for its support.</strong></p>
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<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Conversation FactCheck is accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><em>The Conversation’s FactCheck unit is the first fact-checking team in Australia and one of the first worldwide to be accredited by the International Fact-Checking Network, an alliance of fact-checkers hosted at the Poynter Institute in the US. <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversations-factcheck-granted-accreditation-by-international-fact-checking-network-at-poynter-74363">Read more here</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87315/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Fabrizio Carmignani receives funding from the Australian Research Council for a project on the estimation of the piecewise linear continuous model and its macroeconomic applications.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Josh Healy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland Labor claimed it has ‘created 122,500 jobs – more than four times the number of jobs created under the Newman-Nicholls government’. Is that right? We asked the experts.Fabrizio Carmignani, Professor, Griffith Business School, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/873082017-11-14T19:15:11Z2017-11-14T19:15:11ZFactCheck: are ‘up to 21 fathers’ dying by suicide every week?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/194214/original/file-20171111-29389-xkm22j.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=20%2C66%2C938%2C820&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">One Nation Queensland leader Steve Dickson, federal leader Pauline Hanson, and one of the party's Queensland election candidates, Tracey Bell-Henselin.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.facebook.com/glasshouse.phon/">Facebook</a></span></figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>But the truth of the matter is, we’ve got to see what is going on in that family unit, because there are up to 21 fathers killing themselves every week in this country and people need to be aware of that.</p>
<p><strong>– One Nation Queensland leader Steve Dickson, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/11/queensland-election-lnp-preferences-one-nation-before-labor-in-50-seats">speaking to media</a>, November 11, 2017.</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>Discussing One Nation’s domestic violence policy at a campaign event on the Sunshine Coast, One Nation Queensland leader Steve Dickson <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/nov/11/queensland-election-lnp-preferences-one-nation-before-labor-in-50-seats">said</a> “up to 21 fathers” were taking their lives in Australia every week.</p>
<p>The same number was cited in a <a href="http://www.stevedickson.com.au/media-release/one-nation-domestic-violence-policy-keeping-families-connected/">media statement</a> quoting Tracey Bell-Henselin, the party’s candidate for the Sunshine Coast seat of Glass House.</p>
<p>Bell-Henselin said there had been “an increase in male suicide, with estimates as high as 21 suicides per week because of the family breakdown nationally”.</p>
<p>Are Dickson and Bell-Henselin correct?</p>
<h2>Checking the source</h2>
<p>Asked for sources to support Steve Dickson’s and Tracey Bell-Henselin’s claims, a One Nation spokesperson sent The Conversation a statement which quoted Dickson as saying:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I am being told by ambulance officers that they are attending more and more cases where a man has taken his own life after being through the family court system.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Verdict</h2>
<p>There are no data available to support Steve Dickson’s assertion that there are “up to 21 fathers killing themselves every week in this country”. National statistics do not provide detail to show whether men who have died by suicide were fathers.</p>
<p>Tracey Bell-Henselin’s statement that there has been “an increase in male suicide, with estimates as high as 21 suicides per week because of the family breakdown nationally” is only partly supported by the facts.</p>
<p>There has been an overall increase in the number and rate of male deaths by suicide between 2007 and 2016. The <em>rate</em> of male deaths by suicide increased from 16.4 in 2007 to 17.9 in 2016.</p>
<p>In 2016, there were the equivalent of 41 male deaths by suicide per week in Australia.</p>
<p>If “family breakdown” is understood to mean the end of a romantic relationship, then this is a well-established risk factor for death by suicide among males.</p>
<p>However, there aren’t data to show exactly how many Australian male deaths by suicide may be associated with family breakdown, and we should avoid making claims about causation.</p>
<h2>Are ‘up to 21 fathers’ dying by suicide every week?</h2>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics is the key source of <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/3303.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EIntentional%20self-harm:%20key%20characteristics%7E7">national suicide data</a>. </p>
<p>We can look at the number and rate of male death by suicide for all men.</p>
<p>In 2016 the total number of male deaths by suicide was 2,151. If we divide that number over the 52 weeks of a year, it works out to roughly 41 per week – almost double the number Dickson and Bell-Henselin cited. </p>
<p>That number is for all men, not only fathers. The national statistics can tell us how many people of a particular age and sex died by suicide, but don’t provide detail about life circumstances. They don’t tell us whether the person who died was a father, or had been in a family unit.</p>
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<h2>Has there been an increase in male suicide?</h2>
<p>Looking at these data, we can see there has been an increase in the number of male deaths by suicide over the past decade, from 1,699 deaths in 2007 to 2,151 in 2016.</p>
<p>There has also been an increase in the <em>rate</em> of male deaths by suicide, or deaths per 100,000 people, which accounts for changes in population size. The rate of male deaths by suicide increased from 16.4 in 2007 to 17.9 in 2016.</p>
<p>If we look at the most recent years, both the number and rate of male deaths by suicide in 2016 were slightly lower than in 2015 and 2014.</p>
<p>It is important to point out that the numbers are likely to change once the Australian Bureau of Statistics performs its <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3303.0Explanatory%20Notes12016?OpenDocument">standard data revisions</a>. Usually, the number of recorded deaths <em>rises</em> once the Australian Bureau of Statistics includes cases where coroner’s proceedings <a href="https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2013/198/9/reviewing-revisions-what-are-australian-bureau-statistics-suicide-figures-really">had not been finalised</a> at the time when those data were first collated.</p>
<p>So, at this stage, we’re not able to say <em>exactly</em> what has happened with male deaths by suicide over the last couple of years.</p>
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<h2>Can this be attributed to ‘family breakdown’?</h2>
<p>Bell-Henselin said “as many as 21” male deaths by suicide were “because of the family breakdown nationally”. </p>
<p>We can’t say with any certainty how many deaths were associated with “family breakdown”, or with any other events that may have preceded a death. Again, the national statistics do not provide this level of detail.</p>
<p>The term “family breakdown” will mean different things to different people. Bell-Henselin was speaking in the context of couples with children.</p>
<p>The term “family breakdown” could also be used to refer to circumstances like <a href="http://econtent.hogrefe.com/doi/10.1027/0227-5910/a000484">intimate relationship dissolution</a>, and <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0192513X10365317">separation and divorce</a>.</p>
<p>If we include all these definitions, then Australian and international evidence does show associations between these life events and suicide risk. </p>
<p>A higher prevalence of suicide in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1943-278X.2000.tb01074.x/full">separated and divorced individuals</a> has long been noted. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19128839">Separation</a> and <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0192513X13494824">recent divorce</a> appear to be important. These <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.5172/jfs.1.2.91">acute life stressors</a> elevate the risk of suicide. </p>
<p>Relative to females, males <a href="http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0192513X14562608">may be at a higher risk</a> of suicide following relationship breakdown. And <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19428116">Australian research</a> suggests that men’s suicide risk is further elevated if separation is coupled with shame relating to the event, lower education levels, and stressful legal negotiations. </p>
<p>So, it is fair to say that there is a <em>connection</em> between family breakdown – meaning relationship dissolution, separation or divorce – and deaths by suicide among males.</p>
<p>However, we cannot infer that suicide is <em>caused</em> by (or occurs “because of”) family breakdown. Suicide is a complex phenomenon, involving interactions between many different biological, psychological, and social factors. Therefore, we can’t say how many male deaths by suicide are “because of the family breakdown”. <strong>– Samara McPhedran</strong></p>
<h2>Blind review</h2>
<p>This is a sound FactCheck. The figures cited for male deaths by suicide are correct and the information regarding the risk factors for suicide has been taken from reliable sources.</p>
<p>Suicide is a complex phenomenon that has multiple causes and should never be attributed to one factor alone. <strong>– Jo Robinson</strong></p>
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<p><em>Update, 12.36pm, November 15, 2017: Following publication of this FactCheck, a One Nation spokesperson provided The Conversation with additional comment from Steve Dickson. You can read Dickson’s comment <a href="http://theconversation.com/full-response-from-one-nation-queensland-leader-steve-dickson-for-a-factcheck-on-fathers-dying-by-suicide-87512">here</a>.</em></p>
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<p><em>Anyone seeking support and information about suicide can contact <a href="https://www.lifeline.org.au/">Lifeline</a> on 131 114, <a href="http://www.beyondblue.org.au/">beyondblue</a> 1300 22 46 36, or <a href="https://mensline.org.au/">MensLine Australia</a> 1300 78 99 78.</em></p>
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<p><strong>The Conversation is fact-checking the Queensland election. If you see a 'fact’ you’d like checked, let us know by sending a note via <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">email</a>, <a href="http://www.twitter.com/conversationEDU">Twitter</a> or <a href="http://www.facebook.com/conversationEDU">Facebook</a>. The Conversation <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-conversation-is-fact-checking-the-queensland-election-and-we-want-to-hear-from-you-86779">thanks James Cook University</a> for its support.</strong></p>
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<p><em>Have you seen a “fact” worth checking? The Conversation’s FactCheck asks academic experts to test claims and see how true they are. We then ask a second academic to review an anonymous copy of the article. You can request a check at <a href="mailto:checkit@theconversation.edu.au">checkit@theconversation.edu.au</a>. Please include the statement you would like us to check, the date it was made, and a link if possible.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/87308/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>One Nation Queensland leader Steve Dickson said ‘up to 21 fathers’ are taking their lives in Australia every week. Is that accurate?Samara McPhedran, Senior Research Fellow, Violence Research and Prevention Program, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.