tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/queensland-floods-867/articlesQueensland floods – The Conversation2023-07-06T04:06:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2069582023-07-06T04:06:23Z2023-07-06T04:06:23ZHere’s why climate change isn’t always to blame for extreme rainfall<p>Extreme rain and floods can trigger <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/climate-council-floods-statement/">claims</a> climate change is to blame. But these claims are not always well founded.</p>
<p>In our <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01223-1">new paper</a> in Nature Geoscience, we discuss what can and can’t be attributed to climate change straight after extreme rain events. We use the floods of early 2022 in eastern Australia as a case study.</p>
<p>We know a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, so it would seem reasonable to say climate change makes extreme rain events worse. But this really only applies to short, heavy downpours. For longer duration events, the climate change signal tends to be weaker and more variable. </p>
<p>We hope our suggestions will improve the quality of scientific statements in the media and, ultimately, increase public understanding of climate change effects on extreme weather.</p>
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<h2>The early 2022 Australian floods</h2>
<p>In late February and early March 2022, persistent extreme rainfall caused severe floods across much of the east coast of Australia. Many <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs76.pdf?20220525">new rainfall records</a> were set. </p>
<p>Brisbane recorded three consecutive days of over 200mm for the first time and Sydney experienced 16 wet days in a row, tying with a previous record. Much of southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales had the wettest week since at least 1900.</p>
<p>The floods came towards the end of a <a href="https://theconversation.com/la-nina-3-years-in-a-row-a-climate-scientist-on-what-flood-weary-australians-can-expect-this-summer-190542">third consecutive La Niña</a> summer. Persistent heavy rainfall, associated with large-scale moisture transport in the atmosphere interacting with a trough, caused the flooding. </p>
<p>A blocking high pressure pattern in the Tasman Sea prevented the weather system from moving to the east. This caused the rain to continue and supported the formation of an east coast low, which brought rainfall to the greater Sydney region in early March.</p>
<p>The rain fell on already soaked surfaces, which worsened these floods and also set up the conditions for subsequent floods in Lismore and other parts of the east coast. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531592/original/file-20230613-29-u9zbno.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531592/original/file-20230613-29-u9zbno.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/531592/original/file-20230613-29-u9zbno.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531592/original/file-20230613-29-u9zbno.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531592/original/file-20230613-29-u9zbno.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=469&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531592/original/file-20230613-29-u9zbno.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531592/original/file-20230613-29-u9zbno.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/531592/original/file-20230613-29-u9zbno.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=589&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">The heavy rainfall that led to floods in February and March 2022 was caused by different weather and climate influences coming together.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>These floods occurred not long before the Australian election and led to a renewed focus on climate change action. </p>
<p>While we need to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2022/04/04/ipcc-ar6-wgiii-pressrelease/">limit the damages caused by climate change</a>, the role of climate change in this extreme rain event is unclear. </p>
<h2>Rainfall in a warming world</h2>
<p>There are two necessary ingredients for extreme rainfall to occur – an abundant supply of moisture and ascending air. Heavy rain can occur when moist air rises, cools and condenses. Air can be forced upwards by obstacles such as mountains and by low pressure systems.</p>
<p>As the atmosphere warms it can hold more moisture – about 7% more for every 1°C of warming. This means climate change has increased the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere.</p>
<p>But the climate change effect on low pressure systems that cause air to rise varies across the planet. In some places these are becoming more common and intense. In other places they’re occurring less often.</p>
<p>In the prolonged heavy rainfall of February-March 2022, the duration of the weather patterns was a major factor in the flood impacts. It’s unclear how big a role climate change played.</p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">Flooding at Murwillumbah, NSW, February-March 2022. A short film by Josh Northeast.</span></figcaption>
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<h2>Short downpours or longer drenching rains?</h2>
<p>Heavy rain events that cause flash flooding and pass in minutes or hours are often limited by how much moisture is available to fall as rain. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, so these short duration rain events are intensified in a warming world. <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.abn8657">Recent research</a> shows that in Sydney there has been an increase in sub-hourly heavy rain intensity of about 40% over the last 20 years. </p>
<p>For persistent heavy rain that tends to cause river flooding, the limiting factor is more the positioning of weather systems and whether they stall. As a result, the climate change signal in these events tends to be weaker and more variable across the world.</p>
<h2>What can we say after extreme events?</h2>
<p>In the emotionally charged time following extreme events, it is important that commentators – whether they are scientists or journalists, politicians or advocates – make scientifically accurate statements on the role of climate change. </p>
<p>In our paper, we recommend scientists consider different lines of evidence before making statements on the role of climate change in extreme rainfall. These include examining observational trends and relevant peer-reviewed research on the climate of the area where the extreme event occurred.</p>
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<span class="caption">Different lines of evidence should be considered when thinking about the climate change role in extreme rain events. For the multi-day east Australian heavy rainfall in early 2022, these lines of evidence point in different directions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Author provided. Modified from King et al. (2023)</span></span>
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<p>Robust statements on the effects of climate change on extreme events improve the public discourse and are crucial to planning for weather and climate extremes in a warming world.</p>
<p>The impacts of climate change are drastic enough. We don’t need to sensationalise them.</p>
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<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate R Saunders receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberley Reid receives funding from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes</span></em></p>Some were quick to point the finger at climate change when floods hit eastern Australia in February and March 2022, in the lead up to the federal election. But it’s not that simple, scientists say.Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneKate R Saunders, Lecturer, Monash UniversityKimberley Reid, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Atmospheric Sciences, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1805052022-04-20T19:56:09Z2022-04-20T19:56:09ZNatural disasters cost the nation: we’ve calculated the income tax revenue lost in their wake<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456794/original/file-20220407-12-y0tomi.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">original</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Understanding the true cost of natural disasters is critical for governments to develop policies to deal with them. </p>
<p>Historically, calculations have been based on toting up <a href="https://www.oecd.org/gov/assessing-the-real-cost-of-disasters-9789264298798-en.htm">insurance claims and government aid</a>. But these don’t account for intangible social costs such as lower mental health and higher substance abuse in the years that follow. Nor do they account for <a href="https://theconversation.com/it-cant-all-be-insured-counting-the-hidden-economic-impact-of-floods-and-bushfires-157882">lower economic output</a> in affected areas. </p>
<p>Our latest research calculates, for the first time, the effect of a natural disaster on income tax revenue. </p>
<p>For this we’ve used data from the 2010-2011 floods that ravaged Brisbane and other towns in south-east Queensland. Our analysis covers about a third of Queensland’s population. </p>
<p>Our results show income tax revenue from the population analysed declined by 5% in the 2010/11 financial year, due to both lower incomes and higher tax-deduction claims. </p>
<p>Even though we can’t extrapolate this result to all disasters – type, location and size matter – our findings clearly show natural disasters have widespread financial effects, and that more frequent and severe natural disasters have clear implications for government revenue.</p>
<h2>Queensland’s floods in context</h2>
<p>The Queensland floods occurred between December 2010 and January 2011. As with recent floods, they were driven by the La Niña weather pattern bringing heavy and persistent rain. This was topped off by severe storms when Cyclone Yasi made landfall in northern Queensland <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/yasi.shtml">in February 2011</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/one-in-1-000-years-old-flood-probabilities-no-longer-hold-water-178524">One in 1,000 years? Old flood probabilities no longer hold water</a>
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<p>All but one of the state’s <a href="https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Operation-Queenslander-implementation-plan.PDF">73 local government areas</a> were declared disaster zones. An estimated 2.5 million of the state’s <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/qld-36">3.4 million</a> population <a href="https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-03/Operation-Queenslander-implementation-plan.PDF">were affected</a>, with 33 people killed.</p>
<p>The total cost calculated by <a href="http://australianbusinessroundtable.com.au/our-research/social-costs-report">Deloitte Access Economics</a> was A$14.1 billion (in 2015 dollars). This comprised A$6.7 billion in tangible costs (such as damage to private properties and infrastructure) and A$7.4 billion in intangibles (such as impacts on health and well-being).</p>
<h2>Brisbane River catchment area</h2>
<p>For our research we focused on the effects on the Brisbane River catchment area in south-east Queensland. This includes Brisbane, the city of Ipswich to Brisbane’s west and smaller townships. </p>
<p>These were flooded in mid-January. Thousands had to evacuate and tens of thousands of homes and businesses were inundated to some degree. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=451&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/456556/original/file-20220406-12-t7nrjw.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=567&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">2010-11 Queensland Floods Map.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">The Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Queensland Government</span></span>
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<p>The population of this catchment area in 2010 was about <a href="https://population.com.au/sa4/">1.4 million</a>. About 912,000 were taxpayers. </p>
<p>We examined data from the Australian Taxation Office’s <a href="https://alife-research.app/">Australian Longitudinal Individuals Files</a> (ALife) data set, which contains an anonymous 10% random sample of all Australian tax returns filed over the past three decades. Our sample set comprised 91,208 taxpayers. </p>
<p>Our method, called difference-in-differences, compared the changes in economic conditions of taxpayers living in the Brisbane River catchment area with taxpayers in demographically and economically similar zones in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Perth.</p>
<h2>Lower income, less tax</h2>
<p>We estimate the income tax revenue from the Brisbane River catchment area was reduced by about 5% in the disaster year. This amounted to about A$400 million less tax revenue. Total income tax revenue from the area in 2009/10 was A$7.7 billion.</p>
<p>The decline was due both to lower incomes and higher tax deductions.</p>
<p>We estimate average incomes were 2.4% lower in the 2010/11 financial year. </p>
<p>Those on lower incomes tended to suffer the bigger percentage losses. For the bottom third of income earners – on an average A$16,200 in the 2009/10 year – average incomes were 4.2% lower in 2010/11. Those in higher-income groups lost about 1.5%.</p>
<p>This is consistent with <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/people/mulubasoglu">previous research</a> (using census data) showing low-income earners, part-time workers and small-business owners tend to lose the most income after disasters. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-increase-inequality-recovery-funding-may-make-things-worse-131643">Natural disasters increase inequality. Recovery funding may make things worse</a>
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<h2>Higher deductions, less tax</h2>
<p>Along with income losses, the value of tax deduction claims in the Brisbane river catchment area increased by about 2% in 2010/11.</p>
<p>These covered such things as deductions on work-related travel, clothing and “other” expenses. They also included more tax-deductible gifts and donations, which is commonly observed after a disaster. </p>
<p>Higher income groups claimed more deductions, reducing tax payable.</p>
<p>Those in the top third of incomes – earning an average of AU$91,600 – paid 3% less tax. Those in the middle third – earning an average of AU$39,000 – paid 8.7% less. There was no discernable change in income tax paid for those in the lowest income group.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium, flooded on Friday Jan 14 2011." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/458755/original/file-20220420-21-5ack99.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium, flooded on Friday Jan 14 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AP</span></span>
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<h2>Financial impacts reach far beyond direct victims</h2>
<p>Our findings add to the growing body of research showing natural disasters have significant socio-economic effects, with income losses compounding inequality.</p>
<p>Our research also underlines that everyone is to some extent affected financially, as every natural disaster reduces the tax revenue collected and increases demands on the the public purse. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/it-cant-all-be-insured-counting-the-hidden-economic-impact-of-floods-and-bushfires-157882">It can't all be insured: counting the hidden economic impact of floods and bushfires</a>
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<p>Quantifying the full extent of disaster costs is crucial for governments to budget and build sustainable policies investing in disaster mitigation and recovery.</p>
<p>With scientists predicting more frequent and severe natural disasters, we need a full picture of their likely costs, who is going to pay, and how.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/180505/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>For the first time we’ve calculated what effect a natural disaster has on income tax revenue, finding a 5% decline through lower incomes and higher tax deduction claims.Merve Küçük, PhD Candidate, Deakin UniversityMehmet Ulubasoglu, Professor of Economics, Head of the Department of Economics, and Director of the Centre for Disaster Resilience and Recovery, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1794592022-03-21T01:40:57Z2022-03-21T01:40:57ZGovernments love to talk about ‘shared responsibility’ in a disaster – but does anyone know what it means?<p>The devastating floods in Queensland and New South Wales have taken everyone by surprise. </p>
<p>People have been left to fend for themselves while bickering governments scrambled to provide a coordinated and adequate disaster response. </p>
<p>The intensity of the rainfall may not have been possible to predict, but having a clear roles for governments, emergency services, the military, the charity sector, volunteers and individuals is possible – and absolutely necessary.</p>
<h2>Our research</h2>
<p>In upcoming research, we look at disaster risk reduction policies at the international, federal, state, regional and local government levels. We found all these policies refer to the principle of “shared responsibility” – yet none adequately defines what this means. </p>
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<img alt="A local resident, walking through their flood affected belongings in Ipswich." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452728/original/file-20220317-17-14jbxf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452728/original/file-20220317-17-14jbxf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452728/original/file-20220317-17-14jbxf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452728/original/file-20220317-17-14jbxf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452728/original/file-20220317-17-14jbxf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452728/original/file-20220317-17-14jbxf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452728/original/file-20220317-17-14jbxf7.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=488&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">A local resident, walking through their flood affected belongings in Ipswich.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Darren England/AAP</span></span>
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<p>The research involved a detailed analysis across 12 disaster polices and pieces of legislation to identify how vulnerable populations were protected. </p>
<p>These included the <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/national-disaster-risk-reduction-framework.pdf">National Disaster Risk Reduction Framework</a>, the <a href="https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/emergency/files/australian-disaster-preparedness-framework.pdf">Australian Disaster Preparedness Framework </a> and the <a href="https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/resources/handbook-australian-emergency-management-arrangements/">Australian Emergency Management Arrangements</a>.</p>
<p>We found these documents repeat terms such as “resilience” and “shared responsibility” without clearly defining the meaning or process for implementation. And they fail to specify who is responsible for increasing “resilience”. </p>
<h2>A move towards individual responsibility</h2>
<p>During the 1990s, there was a growing sense the public had become too reliant upon emergency services and needed to develop their own disaster management capacity.</p>
<p>A 2004 Council of Australian Governments report on bushfire management emphasised the idea of “shared responsiblity”. From 2011, the principle of shared responsibly was embedded across federal and state disaster policies to signal individuals and households were expected to develop their own disaster resilience. </p>
<p>Academics understand “shared responsibility” to be about <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17477891.2017.1298510">distributing obligations</a> among different groups or sectors. But what sounds reasonable in theory becomes messy and unworkable in the midst of a crisis.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/homeless-and-looking-for-help-why-people-with-disability-and-their-carers-fare-worse-after-floods-178983">Homeless and looking for help – why people with disability and their carers fare worse after floods</a>
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<p>Studies have <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13569775.2018.1452107">shown</a> shared responsibility actually means “diffused responsibility,” making it more difficult to determine responsibility – and accountability. </p>
<p>Indeed, our research was unable to determine who was actually responsible for helping vulnerable flood communities prepare for and respond to disasters. There seemed to be an assumption that volunteers and the charity sector would mobilise as needed. </p>
<h2>Emergency Management Arrangements</h2>
<p>For example, the federal government’s <a href="https://www.aidr.org.au/media/1764/aidr_handbookcollection_australian-emergency-management-arrangement_web_2019-08-22_v11.pdf">Australian Emergency Management Arrangements</a> aim to establish “disaster resilient” communities.</p>
<p>These guidelines explain the roles of federal, state and local governments and households. But the largest portion of responsibility lies with individuals. For example, </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It is the role and responsibility of families and individuals to attain the highest degree of physical and financial self-reliance – before, during and after an emergency. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>These arrangements suggest government and the volunteer/charity sector do not have the ability or the responsibility to fully offset the economic, social, cultural and human losses incurred during a disaster.</p>
<p>They also assume the individuals are responsible for adequate property and personal insurance. This of course is highly problematic as insurance premiums escalate and become <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-floods-comes-underinsurance-we-need-a-better-plan-178143">unaffordable</a> and some regions become <a href="https://insurancecouncil.com.au/issues-in-focus/climate-change-action/">uninsurable</a>.</p>
<h2>Volunteers, charities and resources</h2>
<p>All the legislation we examined says managing and coordinating volunteers is a local government job.</p>
<p>But this assumes volunteers and charities will have adequate resourcing, skills and capacity to handle disaster recovery. The recent floods have shown much volunteer activities is are largely unregulated, with people having to take matters into their own hands. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Curbside rubbish in Brisbane." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452730/original/file-20220317-27-fvy7my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/452730/original/file-20220317-27-fvy7my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452730/original/file-20220317-27-fvy7my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452730/original/file-20220317-27-fvy7my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452730/original/file-20220317-27-fvy7my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452730/original/file-20220317-27-fvy7my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/452730/original/file-20220317-27-fvy7my.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flood victims are facing many months of of cleanup.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Jono Searle/AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This is becoming more common as structured programs like those run through charities and state emergency services struggle to retain volunteers. </p>
<p>Some of these unregulated volunteers have <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-01/lismore-floods-how-two-blokes-in-a-tinnie-saved-25-lives/100869798">literally saved lives</a>. But some were in need of help themselves or took advantage of the situation to loot resources from flood victims.</p>
<h2>Blame games</h2>
<p>Shared responsibility is also highly susceptible to politicisation. We have seen this play out since the flood disaster hit, with continued arguments between state and federal governments. </p>
<p>Following criticism over the speed and scale of federal assistance, Prime Minister Scott Morrison <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/interview-chris-uhlmann-weekend-today">argued</a> </p>
<blockquote>
<p>States obviously respond to emergencies. They run the SES [State Emergency Service], they run the police, they run the hospitals. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Assistant Treasurer Michael Sukkar also <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sukkar-escalates-row-over-pace-of-disaster-response-20220313-p5a47d.html">claimed</a> the federal government had to wait for state premiers to declare an emergency and request federal help before it could send the military.</p>
<p>This is despite <a href="https://www.legislation.gov.au/Details/C2021C00566">legislation</a> which gives the federal government power to declare an emergency unilaterally. (Incidentally, this law was introduced following a recommendation from the <a href="https://naturaldisaster.royalcommission.gov.au/publications/html-report/chapter-05">bush fire royal commission</a>, following confusion over responsibility for emergency declarations).</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/people-couldve-prepared-for-the-floods-better-if-the-impacts-of-weather-forecasts-were-clearly-communicated-178309">People could've prepared for the floods better if the impacts of weather forecasts were clearly communicated</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>At the local level, disagreements have also erupted between opposing members of local government as to the adequacy of drainage infrastructure, emergency alerts and volunteer coordination. </p>
<p>These politically driven disagreements are enabled by the ambiguity of shared responsibility, and ultimately undermine the effectiveness of disaster response.</p>
<h2>What needs to happen instead</h2>
<p>Clearly we need a better understanding of what “shared responsibility” actually means. Questions we need to answer include: </p>
<ul>
<li>Who makes the decision over the allocation of tasks at each stage of the disaster?</li>
<li>Have all relevant groups and people been included in agreeing upon this allocation?</li>
<li>Have duties been communicated and understood?</li>
<li>Have allowances been made for unexpected situations?</li>
</ul>
<p>Until we have these answers, the trauma of natural disasters will be compounded by confusion, inaction, political blame games and a lack of resources. And it will be individuals and vulnerable communities left to pick up the pieces.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/179459/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rowena Maguire receives funding from the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR) and the Cotton Research Development Corporation (CRDC). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Kennedy receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is affiliated with the IUCN Academy of Environmental Law. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Melissa Bull receives funding from Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Annastasia Bousgas and Bridget Lewis do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There is a huge amount of legislation talking about ‘shared responsibility’ but it isn’t clear what this means or who needs to do what and when.Rowena Maguire, Associate professor, Law School, Queensland University of TechnologyAmanda Kennedy, Professor of Law, Queensland University of TechnologyAnnastasia Bousgas, Researcher with the Centre for Justice and Centre for Waste Free World, Queensland University of TechnologyBridget Lewis, Associate Professor, Queensland University of TechnologyMelissa Bull, Director, QUT Centre for Justice, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1786322022-03-09T00:41:39Z2022-03-09T00:41:39ZCrowdfunding disaster relief offers hope in desperate times. But who gets left behind?<p>At least <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-floods-have-killed-at-least-21-australians-adapting-to-a-harsher-climate-is-now-a-life-or-death-matter-178761">21 people</a> have been killed in the devastating floods across Queensland and New South Wales. Many have lost everything they own, in part due to <a href="https://theconversation.com/victims-of-nsw-and-queensland-floods-have-lodged-60-000-claims-but-too-many-are-underinsured-heres-a-better-way-178294">vicious cycles of underinsurance</a>.</p>
<p>The destruction will also worsen the already <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/07/beyond-dire-how-the-queensland-and-nsw-floods-are-worsening-the-rental-crisis?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">“beyond dire” housing crisis</a>. Some will have no choice but to move elsewhere and leave behind existing social ties. Rebuilding will take years, and local communities may never be the same.</p>
<p>It is perhaps no wonder, then, that people turn to crowdfunding to help those affected.</p>
<p>But while the urge to create such crowdfunding campaigns, or donate to one, is understandable and admirable, it is worth asking: who can succeed in crowdfunding, and who gets left behind?</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-floods-have-killed-at-least-21-australians-adapting-to-a-harsher-climate-is-now-a-life-or-death-matter-178761">The floods have killed at least 21 Australians. Adapting to a harsher climate is now a life-or-death matter</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>Even a federal MP passes the hat around</h2>
<p>Already, over a thousand crowdfunding campaigns related to the floods can be found on GoFundMe alone, with more on Australia-based crowdfunding platforms like MyCause and Chuffed.</p>
<p>One campaign is federal MP Peter Dutton’s, <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/pine-rivers-flood-relief">raising funds</a> for affected people in his electorate of Dickson.</p>
<p>Though perhaps well-meaning, this was woefully ill-considered. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/27/isnt-this-the-role-of-government-peter-dutton-panned-for-setting-up-fundraiser-for-flood-victims">Among other complaints</a>, observers expressed frustration a federal MP would be passing the hat around, rather than focusing his energy on pulling government levers to distribute aid.</p>
<p>For many, Dutton’s campaign reflected a wider lack of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-floods-have-killed-at-least-21-australians-adapting-to-a-harsher-climate-is-now-a-life-or-death-matter-178761%22%22">planning and urgency</a> to mitigate extreme weather events, but it also reveals the everyday normalisation of crowdfunding.</p>
<p>What does it say about the role of government, the reciprocal duties of citizens, and how we can best support each other in difficult times, when no less than the federal defence minister turns to crowdfunding?</p>
<h2>Flying choppers and rising anger</h2>
<p>One of the most prevalent themes of these floods – perhaps even more evident than previous disasters – is the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/05/catastrophic-failure-fury-among-nsw-northern-rivers-locals-forgotten-by-authorities">abandonment and rage</a> felt by those affected, who have judged the federal and state response to be <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/03/fears-for-indigenous-community-of-nsw-island-as-anger-rises-about-government-response">despairingly inadequate</a>.</p>
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<p>Compounding this despair are sentiments of distrust towards both federal and state governments. Perceptions of misplaced priorities are driving these suspicions, as evident in <a href="https://twitter.com/liammendes/status/1499906439275773953">critiques of policing actions</a> and <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/07/adf-defends-floods-response-after-lismore-residents-organise-helicopters-for-supply-drops">ill-timed photo-ops by the ADF</a>.</p>
<p>Evoking memories of <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-05/scott-morrison-criticised-for-political-ads-during-bushfires/11841458">government responses to the Black Summer bushfires</a>, there are concerns the slick imagery of relief was coming before the relief itself.</p>
<p>Of course, there have been exhaustive and heroic efforts among <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10563005/The-heroes-Australias-flooding-disaster-Fijian-workers-rescued-DOZENS-trapped-Aussies.html">SES volunteers</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/03/a-faint-call-for-help-remarkable-stories-emerge-from-nsw-flood-rescues">police</a>, <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-01/incredible-moment-people-are-winched-off-roof-filmed/100871462">ADF</a> personnel, and other emergency workers. </p>
<p>Also heartening has been the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/02/flood-of-help-how-the-nsw-and-queensland-disaster-has-brought-neighbours-closer-together">spontaneous co-operative efforts</a> among <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/01/everyone-got-supper-drivers-stranded-by-floods-on-motorway-set-up-food-kitchens-for-fellow-travellers">isolated groups</a>, along with the immense generosity of <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/these-sikh-volunteers-drove-34-hours-to-provide-a-warm-meal-for-nsw-flood-victims/5a7tjbomu">volunteer organisations</a>.</p>
<p>Yet a sense of horror pervades in witnessing how much has been left to lay people, not only to provide shelter and source supplies (<a href="https://theconversation.com/getting-urgent-medicines-in-a-flood-zone-can-be-a-life-or-death-challenge-178300">including crucial medications</a>), but to conduct <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-01/lismore-floods-how-two-blokes-in-a-tinnie-saved-25-lives/100869798">rescue operations in high-risk situations</a>.</p>
<p>Daring community-led efforts <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/mar/07/locals-take-charge-of-helicopter-food-and-rescue-operations-in-nsw-floods-amid-frustration-over-adf-efforts">to save people with privately-owned helicopters</a> supported via <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-helicopter-team-rescue-people-from-floods">crowdfunding</a> is a remarkable example of courage and ingenuity, but also a damning indictment of our readiness to deal with extreme weather events.</p>
<p>Those on the ground are tired of being lauded for their resilience. They are resilient because they were given no alternative.</p>
<h2>Who succeeds in crowdfunding? Who doesn’t?</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, those looking on from afar understandably want to help, ideally with immediate impact.</p>
<p>A direct cash donation – along with an encouraging message – can offer a quick, secure, and impactful way of providing aid. And <a href="https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7643356/if-you-really-want-to-help-those-hit-by-the-floods-heres-what-to-do/">as journalist Jenna Price observed</a>, starting a crowdfunding campaign on behalf of someone else can be a concrete action to undertake in otherwise helpless moments.</p>
<p>But most folks won’t have a compelling advocate like Price in their corner. As I’ve noted <a href="https://theconversation.com/crowdfunding-when-the-government-fails-to-act-the-public-wearily-steps-up-128924">previously</a>, social crowdfunding platforms are effectively markets for sympathy, where “the crowd” weighs claims to moral worthiness. Such mechanisms create few winners and many losers.</p>
<p>A wealth of research confirms that crowdfunding is often only effective <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1369118X.2020.1850838">for people with large social networks</a> and the ability <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953617300886?casa_token=9v5Sd75Rgk8AAAAA:seyRQE9diNB0KOugWN-z0fQ21E6jNCCxViI-WKxjoQqa7g5uzG9N0-X3iaqRabFOMyre4u1CW9HI">to craft an affecting appeal</a>. </p>
<p>Most campaigns raise little, if anything at all, which can feel like an injurious measure of life’s worth. COVID <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953621004378?casa_token=KX5LvfXPHBUAAAAA:qz1cptTpNcy9UPI_ze-hRjQ3ZXC7yPMgn-CgfoimfwVa-5zvBhaiXDXEUs6EIIMHUM2M3TdZJMTL">only worsened these trends</a>.</p>
<p>An over-reliance on crowdfunding may even exacerbate <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0229760">existing inequalities</a>. Still, <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1461444816667723?casa_token=lbc3xYu7Y5QAAAAA:17lBG98WDU5Hz5PLOjo9aPemsR7p263exPJoQvse_w2CO7816r2njPlbpjGxLXydO2566OtXLUypiDg">many have no choice but to plead their case</a>.</p>
<p>As researcher Bhiamie Williamson <a href="https://theconversation.com/like-many-disasters-in-australia-aboriginal-people-are-over-represented-and-under-resourced-in-the-nsw-floods-178420">observes</a>, Aboriginal people are over-represented and under-resourced in the floods. There’s also a strong likelihood they will be under-represented in crowdfunding appeals (but <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/bundjalung-community-flood-relief?qid=282d6b0445aebe6cbe3d7b6dc64f3e2c">here</a> are <a href="https://chuffed.org/project/support-aboriginal-families-of-lismore">two</a> campaigns trying to ensure this does not happen). </p>
<p>So while crowdfunding can be a great method to support individuals directly, consider who may be missing from these platforms, and get behind those agencies looking to help them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/like-many-disasters-in-australia-aboriginal-people-are-over-represented-and-under-resourced-in-the-nsw-floods-178420">Like many disasters in Australia, Aboriginal people are over-represented and under-resourced in the NSW floods</a>
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<h2>GoFundMe is not an answer to mass catastrophe</h2>
<p>Recently, GoFundMe has become acutely self-conscious about its public perception as a place of desperate appeal, where only few succeed.</p>
<p>In response, the company has made clear it is not an alternative safety net, but rather <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/04/business/tim-cadogan-gofundme-corner-office.html">a “complement” to existing institutional supports</a>. This, in part, is why GoFundMe is more regularly partnering with charities and non-profits, such as <a href="https://www.gofundme.com/f/pgj7w-queensland-flood-support">Givit</a>.</p>
<p>This strategic shift was apparent in a frank op-ed from GoFundMe CEO Tim Cadogan, who said “<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2021/02/11/gofundme-ceo-congress-pass-covid-relief-desperate-americans-column/4440425001/">we can’t do your job for you</a>” in urging the US government to offer more substantial relief during the height of COVID. </p>
<p>This, ultimately, is why Dutton’s GoFundMe campaign generated such public backlash. While well-meaning, an elected official rattling a donations tin after a disaster of this scale feels hopelessly inadequate, and a potent symbolic marker of our collective failure to enact mitigation strategies.</p>
<p>Crowdfunding cannot fix these issues. If anything, crowdfunding too easily individualises what are shared existential crises, distracting from our ability to properly reckon with them.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/want-to-help-people-affected-by-floods-heres-what-to-do-and-what-not-to-178149">Want to help people affected by floods? Here's what to do – and what not to</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178632/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Matthew Wade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The urge to create, or donate to, crowdfunding campaigns in a crisis is understandable. But it’s worth asking: who can succeed in crowdfunding, and who gets left behind?Matthew Wade, Lecturer in Social Inquiry, La Trobe UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1783092022-03-04T04:33:30Z2022-03-04T04:33:30ZPeople could’ve prepared for the floods better if the impacts of weather forecasts were clearly communicated<p>The extreme rain and flooding bombarding Australia’s east coast has inflicted a heavy toll on lives and livelihoods. This, however, could’ve been minimised if weather warning systems had been clearly translated into on-the-ground, local impacts for communities. </p>
<p>Early and detailed impact warnings can give people sufficient time to act. This should include continually updated predictions showing the spatial extent of flooding, timing, and the levels of uncertainty. All this should be easily accessible via a central hub of information. </p>
<p>Access to this sort of information depends on the council. Residents in Brisbane, where half a year’s worth of rain <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-04/nsw-and-qld-floods-caused-by-consecutive-la-ninas-experts-say/100875572">fell in three days</a>, had only a PDF of a map showing the flood extent. It didn’t show the water’s depth, just whether there was predicted water – and a house submerged from floor to ceiling is very different from having some water on your front lawn.</p>
<p>Improved warnings are unlikely to protect houses, as there’s an inevitable loss of infrastructure that goes along with large catastrophic floods. However, it means people can prepare for floods. Possessions can be moved, vulnerable loved ones can be reached, and people can be evacuated in a timely manner - not in <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-queensland-floods-live-updates-lismore-surrounding-suburbs-brace-for-severe-weather-20220228-p5a06v.html">the middle of the night</a>.</p>
<h2>Weather warning vs impact warning</h2>
<p>The Bureau of Meteorology issues warnings about extreme rainfall, river heights and possible floods. These are usually communicated on social media and in the news.</p>
<p>Individual councils translate these weather warnings into possible impacts for their communities, such as how high the floodwaters may rise and what infrastructure may be damaged.</p>
<p>Early weather warnings are often broad in location and time due to large uncertainties in the predictions, even with the best weather models and mathematical and statistical methods behind them. As the event draws nearer, forecasters can make better predictions with more certainty, with greater detail about the location and timing of the event.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/one-of-the-most-extreme-disasters-in-colonial-australian-history-climate-scientists-on-the-floods-and-our-future-risk-178153">'One of the most extreme disasters in colonial Australian history': climate scientists on the floods and our future risk</a>
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<p>Impact warnings must evolve in the same way: broad at first, and becoming more targeted and specific with time. But the available warnings didn’t make the best use of information about the probability of flood water at different locations and times. </p>
<p>The map provided by the Brisbane City Council, for example, <a href="https://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2022-02/20220228%20-%20Brisbane%20River%20Flood%20Forecast%20map%204_0m_AHD.pdf">showed only one possible predicted scenario</a> for the flood extent at the maximum river height. This doesn’t show people when their place will go under, and many homes were inundated before maximum river height was reached. </p>
<p>The map also didn’t show the predicted water depth at given locations, and didn’t show any uncertainties in its predicted extent. This makes it harder for people to make decisions about how and when to act. </p>
<p>While there are many ways this map could be improved upon, many other councils in flood-affected areas didn’t even have this.</p>
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<h2>Making good decisions</h2>
<p>Broad flood estimates for catchments aren’t always useful for individual action. To make effective decisions for your family and home: </p>
<ul>
<li><p>Location matters: to act, it’s important to know if you’ll be cut off by flood waters</p></li>
<li><p>time matters: knowing your property is at risk of flooding in three days time offers different mitigation options than “likely to flood” in seven hours </p></li>
<li><p>uncertainty matters: people will act differently based on a one in 100 risk than a one in ten risk, and <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0330-3">interpret descriptions</a> (such as “likely”) in different ways.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>Indeed, research shows communicating forecast uncertainties and probabilities helps people <a href="https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2011-18824-001">make better decisions, increases trust in the forecast</a>, and even <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/risa.12336">improves compliance with warnings</a>.</p>
<p>There’s also a much lower cost in taking action early. Of course, early warnings need to be balanced with false-alarms. Acting early is often done in the face of uncertainty, but waiting until the event is about to occur doesn’t give people enough time to act. </p>
<p>When events are low probability and high impact, it’s often better to err on the side of caution. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/why-water-inundates-a-home-during-one-flood-but-spares-it-the-next-178163">Why water inundates a home during one flood but spares it the next</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<h2>What needs to improve?</h2>
<p>In Australia, different councils have different resources and funding for translating complex weather data into usable flood impact information. For most councils, this isn’t part of their day-to-day business, and they likely don’t have necessary expertise on-staff given how infrequent flood events of this magnitude are. </p>
<p>As climate change brings more frequent and intense natural disasters, improving weather impact warnings and the resources of councils is more urgent than ever. </p>
<p>Drawing from the warning systems in place for bushfires is a good place to start. Australia has a highly localised <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/111">warning system for bushfires</a>, which includes: Monitor Conditions,
Evacuate Now and Shelter in Place. Information about which roads are cut off are also widely communicated. </p>
<p>A similar tiered warning system linking weather and actions would have greatly helped residents make decisions. Low-lying areas with a moderate to high risk of flooding could then better understand how their flood or isolation risks were growing over time.</p>
<p>What’s more, information about where a flood can occur, its depth, when it will happen, and how likely at a given point in time and space needs to be visualised in an accessible way. This could include interactive, local maps showing the predictions and uncertainty in how the event will evolve. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/like-many-disasters-in-australia-aboriginal-people-are-over-represented-and-under-resourced-in-the-nsw-floods-178420">Like many disasters in Australia, Aboriginal people are over-represented and under-resourced in the NSW floods</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Australia can also look to the United Kingdom Met Office, which focuses on impacts in their <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/guides/warnings">weather warnings</a>.
It issues colour code warnings based on the impact and the likelihood of the event – for example, a code orange can be issued when an event either has a very high likelihood and a moderate impact, or a very high impact and a moderate likelihood. </p>
<p>Issuing timely, actionable warnings based on impacts isn’t easy. Spatial estimates of floods require advanced modelling techniques, especially when predicting in real time. Uncertainty is also a difficult concept to visualise and communicate, but there is <a href="https://wires.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wcc.297">ongoing research</a> to address this problem.</p>
<p>These challenges can’t be tackled in an ad hoc manner in the midst of a natural disaster. Data science, better data, and technology all offer solutions for this challenge, and must be an ongoing focus in the lead-up to future, inevitable floods.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178309/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate R Saunders receives funding from The Harry Otten Prize for Innovation in Meteorology. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kate Helmstedt receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Queensland Department of Environment and Science. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kirien receives funding from The Harry Otten Prize for Innovation in Meteorology. </span></em></p>Improved warnings are unlikely to protect houses, but it means people can prepare – they can move possessions, reach vulnerable loved ones and evacuate in a timely manner.Kate R Saunders, Lecturer, Queensland University of TechnologyKate Helmstedt, Senior lecturer and ARC DECRA Fellow, Queensland University of TechnologyKirien Whan, Research scientist, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Licensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1781562022-03-02T05:39:40Z2022-03-02T05:39:40ZBrisbane floods: pondering the wisdom of placing our major galleries, libraries and theatres on the banks of a flood-prone river<p>As a historian, I spend many hours at the State Library of Queensland looking out the large glass panels gazing at the Brisbane River. Its tranquil brown water quietly meanders past, offering an ideal place to watch the CityCat ferries and the occasional passing rower. </p>
<p>But this weekend the water was roaring, racing past the library, full of pontoons, boats and debris. The river broke its banks, reclaiming its floodplain and inundating buildings in its path, until the flood <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-28/south-east-queensland-weather-flooding-bom-brisbane-evacuations/100866270">peaked at 3.85 metres</a> at the Brisbane gauge.</p>
<p>Maiwar (Turrbal name for the Brisbane River) has a long history of floods, as does the south end peninsula or Kurilpa, “place of the water rat”. This land, once full of waterholes, creeks and wetlands provided sustenance for Turrbal and Jagara peoples for centuries. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449340/original/file-20220301-25-1ol2cfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449340/original/file-20220301-25-1ol2cfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449340/original/file-20220301-25-1ol2cfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449340/original/file-20220301-25-1ol2cfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449340/original/file-20220301-25-1ol2cfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=333&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449340/original/file-20220301-25-1ol2cfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449340/original/file-20220301-25-1ol2cfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449340/original/file-20220301-25-1ol2cfd.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Flooded streets of Brisbane in 1893.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland State Archives</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>By 1893 when a flood of 8.35 metres occurred in central Brisbane, South Bank was an industrial site occupied by wharves, factories, commercial businesses, and the railway line, with residential estates in nearby West End. </p>
<p>After the flood, commercial businesses moved to the north side and between 1900 to the 1970s the south bank declined, left as largely undeveloped open space. </p>
<h2>A new cultural precinct</h2>
<p>In 1969, the Queensland Art Gallery Site Committee selected the river’s south bank as the site of a new state art gallery, its river location regarded as enhancing its aesthetic appeal. </p>
<p>By 1974 the state government had acquired more land for a cultural precinct, undeterred by the 1974 floods that reached 5.45m at the Brisbane gauge. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449342/original/file-20220301-12844-1aizsvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449342/original/file-20220301-12844-1aizsvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449342/original/file-20220301-12844-1aizsvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449342/original/file-20220301-12844-1aizsvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449342/original/file-20220301-12844-1aizsvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449342/original/file-20220301-12844-1aizsvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449342/original/file-20220301-12844-1aizsvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449342/original/file-20220301-12844-1aizsvl.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 1974 floods reached a height of 5.45 meters.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland State Archives</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Additions included the Queensland Art Gallery (opened in 1982), Queensland Performing Arts Centre (1985), Queensland Museum (1986) and Queensland State Library (1988, extended 2006). The cultural precinct expanded with the Playhouse Theatre (1998) and the Queensland Gallery of Modern Art (GOMA, 2006). </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449343/original/file-20220301-13-fnb2wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449343/original/file-20220301-13-fnb2wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449343/original/file-20220301-13-fnb2wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449343/original/file-20220301-13-fnb2wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449343/original/file-20220301-13-fnb2wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=586&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449343/original/file-20220301-13-fnb2wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449343/original/file-20220301-13-fnb2wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449343/original/file-20220301-13-fnb2wj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=736&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">By 1987, the Queensland Art Gallery and Queensland Performing Arts Centre (both far left) had been opened, but most of the south bank was undeveloped.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland State Archives</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>With its riverside landscape forecourts and restaurants, and iconic Brisbane eye, the designs took advantage of the location, and were intended to make a statement when viewed from the north side of the river. </p>
<p>The adjacent land was developed for World Expo ’88, now South Bank Parklands and home to the Queensland Conservatorium (1996) and ABC studios (2013). </p>
<p>The precinct stretches more than 450 metres along the Brisbane River and is now the cultural hub of Brisbane.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449344/original/file-20220301-13-v739uv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449344/original/file-20220301-13-v739uv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/449344/original/file-20220301-13-v739uv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449344/original/file-20220301-13-v739uv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449344/original/file-20220301-13-v739uv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=388&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449344/original/file-20220301-13-v739uv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449344/original/file-20220301-13-v739uv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/449344/original/file-20220301-13-v739uv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=487&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">In 1988, South Bank was home to the World Expo.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Queensland State Archives</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The 2011 floods</h2>
<p>But South Bank’s watery history is never far away. </p>
<p>In 2011 Brisbane again flooded, this time to 4.46m at the Brisbane gauge, and the precinct’s vulnerability was exposed. Within hours its riverside location switched from an asset to a liability. The carparks and basement levels were inundated where the electrical, fire and air-conditioning systems were located, rendering the buildings unsafe. </p>
<p>The buildings were all closed as basements pumps went into overdrive. </p>
<p>Water did not enter the Queensland Art Gallery, but the lower level of the Children’s Art Centre, River Café and back-of-house areas were damaged at the Gallery of Modern Art. The first floor was well above river levels and the ground floor’s robust design allowed it to be hosed out. </p>
<p>The State Library was forced to move its collection to higher levels – as staff had been doing in previous wet weeks – and was saved by the 2006 renovation that had already relocated some books to higher levels. The Edge, the children’s space on the ground floor, was damaged. </p>
<p>Almost three metres of floodwater inundated the lower end of the Playhouse at the Queensland Performing Arts Centre. It was a month before performances could be held. </p>
<p>The headquarters of the Queensland Theatre Company, only blocks away in Montague Road, was in waist-deep water. </p>
<p>Thousands of props and costumes were destroyed – years of theatrical history were sent to the dump. The stage flooring and lower-level seating, bar, reception and green rooms were irrevocably damaged.</p>
<p>As the floodwaters receded, humidity (the harbinger of mould) rose, the power loss making humidity monitors and air conditioning impossible. Librarians and museum and art curators monitored anxiously. </p>
<p>But after a few weeks, in the spirit of “the show must go on”, the curtains re-opened at the Queensland Performing Arts Centre and these cultural hubs returned to business as usual.</p>
<h2>The 2022 floods</h2>
<p>When floodwaters rose again this year my fellow historians and I were texting each other to ask: “what’s happening to the State Library, is it in trouble?” </p>
<p>Sadly, it was. The State Library of Queensland, its access limited for months by COVID-19, is <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CajHbw7oUJR/">again closed</a>. The community tool library on ground floor of the library is completely under water. </p>
<p>The Queensland Theatre Company is again inundated with water.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="InstagramEmbed" data-react-props="{"url":"https://www.instagram.com/p/CagMKSqrhAC","accessToken":"127105130696839|b4b75090c9688d81dfd245afe6052f20"}"></div></p>
<p>Performances at the Queensland Performing Arts Centre are <a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/CaikgqsrzYo/">postponed</a> until at least March 7. </p>
<p>The ABC, an essential service in floods, was inundated. Brisbane news was diverted through Melbourne or Perth and local journalists reported in the field. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1498023292892217344"}"></div></p>
<p>In a few weeks’ time I hope to return to research at the state library. Once again, I will look out over the river and enjoy the peaceful reverie of seemingly benign water pass by. </p>
<p>But this time I will contemplate the wisdom of placing all our cultural repositories on the banks of a flood-prone subtropical river.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/like-rivers-in-the-sky-the-weather-system-bringing-floods-to-queensland-will-become-more-likely-under-climate-change-176711">Like rivers in the sky: the weather system bringing floods to Queensland will become more likely under climate change</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178156/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Margaret Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Prone to flooding, by the 1970s Brisbane’s South Bank was largely undeveloped open space. It is now home to Queensland’s major cultural institutions.Margaret Cook, Lecturer in History, University of the Sunshine CoastLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1780282022-02-28T08:19:53Z2022-02-28T08:19:53ZDrinking water can be a dangerous cocktail for people in flood areas<p>Parts of south east Queensland and northern NSW have been experiencing what has been called a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/27/flood-waters-surge-across-brisbane-and-south-east-queensland-as-rain-bomb-threatens-lives">rain bomb</a>”. Despite the heavy falls, south eastern Queenslanders in Brisbane, Logan, Ipswich, Moreton Bay and the Lockyer Valley have been asked to <a href="https://www.seqwater.com.au/news/greater-brisbane-residents-asked-conserve-water">conserve drinking water</a>. </p>
<p>Water authorities explained extreme weather and heavy rain forced the closure of two SEQ drinking water treatment plants (Mt Crosby and North Pine Water Treatment Plants) early on Sunday morning. North Pine has since restarted and the Gold Coast Desalination plant is supplementing supply. </p>
<p>People living in areas experiencing flooding, particularly in south east Queensland, can help by using a minimum of tap water. This will help authorities reserve supply as they work to return their water treatment system to normal. </p>
<p>But what could have caused this in a time of excess of water? </p>
<h2>Dangerous waters</h2>
<p>After an <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/27/rain-rain-go-away-how-long-will-nsw-and-queenslands-record-wet-and-humid-weather-last">already wetter than normal summer</a>, very heavy rain on saturated catchments has quickly generated dangerous volumes of flood waters. </p>
<p>The high energy and velocity of flood waters is causing erosion of soil and, in turn, river banks. As a result, SEQ Water <a href="https://www.seqwater.com.au/news/greater-brisbane-residents-asked-conserve-water">estimates</a> the cloudiness in raw water has increased by up to 100 times the normal amount. </p>
<p>Pictures and footage of flood waters, show it a milky chocolate brown. This is a dangerous sight to those in the water industry and raises concerns if it enters their water supply.</p>
<p>People should be very wary of <a href="https://theconversation.com/-178027">wading into flood waters</a> as they are often highly contaminated with disease causing germs from human and animal faecal wastes. Urban sewage systems may also overflow in times of wet weather and flood. </p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1497738644555243524"}"></div></p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dont-go-wading-in-flood-water-if-you-can-help-it-its-a-health-risk-for-humans-and-dogs-too-178027">Don't go wading in flood water if you can help it. It's a health risk for humans – and dogs too</a>
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<p>Cloudiness in water causes major problems for drinking water too. Referred to as “turbidity” in the water industry, it is caused by <a href="https://www.waterquality.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/characterising.pdf">solid particulates</a> in water. This suspended matter might be soil, silt or clay. </p>
<p>The dirty water can create <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844015305259">significant problems</a> for <a href="https://www.seqwater.com.au/water-treatment">treatment</a> of clean and safe drinking water. In particular, dirty water can overwhelm various stages of the treatment system, for example, by clogging filters. It can also reduce the effectiveness of water disinfection.</p>
<h2>High standards</h2>
<p>A particularly important process in treatment of drinking water is the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/drinking/public/water_disinfection.html#:%7E:text=Chlorine%20is%20a%20highly%20effective,up%20quickly%20in%20water%20systems">addition of chlorine</a>, sometimes in combination with other chemicals. This helps ensure water is free of disease-causing germs by the time it travels through pipes to the tap in your home. Effective treatment of drinking water results in water free of any cloudiness. Water has to have “crystal clear” turbidity for disinfection to be effective. </p>
<p>Australian drinking water suppliers are required to meet the highest standards of safe and clean drinking water quality. They need to comply with an extensive series of stringent protocols covered by the <a href="https://www.nhmrc.gov.au/about-us/publications/australian-drinking-water-guidelines">Australian Drinking water Guidelines</a>. If they are unable to meet the standards at any time, they need to notify their customers.</p>
<p>For example, after bad storms <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-13/victoria-ses-busy-after-wild-storms-weather/100211210">hit Victoria</a> in June last year, storm damage to water infrastructure allowed potential contamination to enter the system. This led Yarra Valley Water to <a href="https://www.yvw.com.au/weve-lifted-do-not-drink-water-advisory-18-june">issue a warning</a> to customers in some suburbs not to drink tap water at all. Unusually, the authorities warned customers that boiling water would “<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-wild-storms-show-how-easily-disasters-can-threaten-our-water-supply-162846">not remove contaminants</a>” to make it safe to drink. </p>
<p>When such suspected water contamination enters the drinking water system, the entire system needs to be flushed. Extensive water testing is then conducted before the “all clear” is given to drink tap water again. In the case of the Yarra Valley Water, this process <a href="https://www.yvw.com.au/weve-lifted-do-not-drink-water-advisory-18-june">took two days</a>. </p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/victorias-wild-storms-show-how-easily-disasters-can-threaten-our-water-supply-162846">Victoria's wild storms show how easily disasters can threaten our water supply</a>
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<h2>A changing climate</h2>
<p>Experts have <a href="https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/water-security-report/">long warned</a> Australia’s water security is under threat due to climate change. </p>
<p>As with flooding, bushfires too can cause problems for drinking water supply. Heavy rain, storms and flooding after bushfires are a very bad combination. Bushfires can produce <a href="https://www.epa.nsw.gov.au/-/media/epa/corporate-site/resources/water/20p2093-bushfire-impacts-on-water-quality.pdf">burnt residue with high nutrients, metals and many other contaminants</a>. </p>
<p>There were several water quality problems after Australia’s Black summer bushfires, including <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-14/dam-water-quality-hit-by-bushfire-ash-floods/11963050">fears for the quality of water</a> in Sydney’s largest water storage facility: Warragamba Dam. </p>
<p>This was due to high intensity bushfires removing catchment vegetation. Then heavy rains and flooding carried loose ash, soil and debris into the storage reservoir. </p>
<p>Clean-up after such an event can be very difficult. Contaminants may be filtered from streams and containment booms deployed on rivers and storages to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-15/warragamba-dam-installs-booms-to-catch-bushfire-debris/11866838">collect floating debris</a>. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-warping-our-fresh-water-cycle-and-much-faster-than-we-thought-177453">Climate change is warping our fresh water cycle – and much faster than we thought</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
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<h2>Be prepared</h2>
<p>If you are concerned about the quality of your tap water it pays to think ahead.</p>
<p>Firstly, watch for reports about water quality problems in the media, from health authorities or from your water supplier. If flooding is coming your way, consider filling up some large containers of water from the tap, just in case!</p>
<p>If you live in a low-lying location – that is, on a floodplain, near a river, close to sea or ground-level, where flooding is more likely – be prepared. As well as packing some clothes and food in case of flooding or other natural disaster, pack some containers of clean drinking water. You may not have much warning that a “rain bomb” is coming your way. </p>
<p>Given the already soaked landscape from such a wet summer, flood waters will likely rise far more quickly than expected. Be guided by <a href="https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/floodsafe/prepare-your-home/emergency-kit/">the helpful list</a> prepared by the SES on the preparations and supplies you should have ready, but hopefully won’t need, in case of flood.</p>
<p>If you are in an area that is already flooded, follow the advice from authorities on safe drinking water, whether it requires boiling or avoiding altogether.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/178028/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Wright has received funding from industry, local and state government agencies.</span></em></p>Ironically, excess rain can lead to a shortage of clean drinking water in times of storms and flooding.Ian A. Wright, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Science, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1767112022-02-27T00:00:45Z2022-02-27T00:00:45ZLike rivers in the sky: the weather system bringing floods to Queensland will become more likely under climate change<p>The severe floods in southeast Queensland this week have forced hundreds of residents to flee the town of Gympie and have cut off major roads, after intense rain battered the state for several days. The rain is expected to continue today, and travel south into New South Wales.</p>
<p>We research a weather system called “atmospheric rivers”, which is causing this inundation. Indeed, atmospheric rivers triggered many of the world’s floods in 2021, including the devastating floods across eastern Australia <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/la-nina-s-final-fury-20210427-p57mvj.html">in March</a> which killed two people and saw 24,000 evacuate.</p>
<p>Our recently published <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-21-0606.1/JCLI-D-21-0606.1.xml">research</a> was the first to quantify the impacts these weather systems have in Australia, and <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021GL095335">another study</a> we published in November looked closely at the floods in March last year</p>
<p>We found while atmospheric rivers bring much-needed rainfall to the agriculturally significant Murray-Darling Basin, their potential to bring devastating floods will become more likely in a warmer world under climate change.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1497697793376407563"}"></div></p>
<h2>What are atmospheric rivers?</h2>
<p>Atmospheric rivers are like highways of water vapour between the tropics and poles, located in the first one to three kilometres of the atmosphere. They are responsible for <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/126/3/1520-0493_1998_126_0725_apafmf_2.0.co_2.xml">about 90%</a> of the water vapour moving from north to south of the planet, despite covering only 10% of the globe.</p>
<p>When atmospheric rivers crash into mountain ranges or interact with cold fronts, they rain out this water with potentially disastrous impacts. Mountains and fronts lift the water vapour up in the atmosphere where it cools and condenses into giant, liquid-forming bands of clouds. Intense thunderstorms can also form within atmospheric rivers.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Map of the world with water vapour shown" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445656/original/file-20220210-25-icld7u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/445656/original/file-20220210-25-icld7u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445656/original/file-20220210-25-icld7u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445656/original/file-20220210-25-icld7u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=282&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445656/original/file-20220210-25-icld7u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445656/original/file-20220210-25-icld7u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/445656/original/file-20220210-25-icld7u.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=354&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A snapshot of water vapour in the atmosphere. Atmospheric rivers are the narrow streamers branching off the equator.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin-Madison</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Three atmospheric rivers last year were particularly devastating. </p>
<p>In January, California was hit with a strong atmospheric river that caused <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/27/california-winter-storm-flooding-blizzard/">record-breaking rainfall and blizzards</a>. It also triggered a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/06/california-highway-1-landslide-climate-crisis">landslide</a> on California’s iconic Highway 1. </p>
<p>In November, British Columbia, Canada was battered with <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-atmospheric-river-drenched-british-columbia-and-led-to-floods-and-mudslides-172021">record breaking rainfall</a> that left Vancouver isolated from the rest of the country.</p>
<p>And in March, Eastern Australia copped a drenching that led to widespread flooding and <a href="https://insurancecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/ICA008_CatastropheReport_6.5_FA1_online.pdf">A$652 million</a> worth of damage. All mainland states and territories except WA faced simultaneous weather warnings.</p>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"1373884280137510913"}"></div></p>
<h2>What we found</h2>
<p>Our <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/aop/JCLI-D-21-0606.1/JCLI-D-21-0606.1.xml">recently published research</a> provides the first quantitative summary of atmospheric rivers over Australia. It’s not all bad news – most of the time, atmospheric rivers bring beneficial rainfall to Australia. About 30% of southeast Australia’s rainfall comes from atmospheric rivers, including in the Murray-Darling Basin.</p>
<p>Rainfall is vital to this region. The Murray-Darling Basin supports over <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/importance-murray-darling-basin/environment">500 species</a> of birds, reptiles and fish, and around 30,000 wetlands. Agriculture in the Murray-Darling Basin contributes <a href="https://www.mdba.gov.au/why-murray-darling-basin-matters">A$24 billion</a> to the Australian economy.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/how-an-atmospheric-river-drenched-british-columbia-and-led-to-floods-and-mudslides-172021">How an 'atmospheric river' drenched British Columbia and led to floods and mudslides</a>
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<p>However, we also found that 30-40% of the heaviest rainfall days in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin, where towns such as Tamworth, Dubbo and Orange are located, were associated with atmospheric rivers. </p>
<p>A heavy downpour in Australia’s bread basket might lead to happier farmers during a dry period, but following a wet summer – such as from La Niña – these days are less welcome. </p>
<h2>La Niña saturates soil</h2>
<p>La Niña can play a big role in flooding, as it exacerbates damage wrought by atmospheric rivers.</p>
<p>A La Niña was declared in spring in 2020 and fizzled out by March in 2021. <a href="https://theconversation.com/back-so-soon-la-nina-heres-why-were-copping-two-soggy-summers-in-a-row-173684">A second La Niña</a> arrived in the summer of 2021 and 2022. </p>
<p>During a La Niña, winds that blow from east to west near the equator strengthen. This leads to cold, deep ocean water rising up to the surface in the East Pacific, near South America, and warm ocean waters to build near Australia. </p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/back-so-soon-la-nina-heres-why-were-copping-two-soggy-summers-in-a-row-173684">Back so soon, La Niña? Here's why we're copping two soggy summers in a row</a>
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<p>Warm sea surface temperatures promote rainfall, which is why La Niña is associated with <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statement_archives.shtml">rainier weather</a> over much of Australia. </p>
<p>Soil is like a kitchen sponge. It absorbs water, but once it becomes saturated it can no longer soak up any more. This is what happened to eastern Australia in the months before the March floods – and when the record-breaking rain fell, the ground flooded.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448707/original/file-20220226-32551-3u0tue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448707/original/file-20220226-32551-3u0tue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/448707/original/file-20220226-32551-3u0tue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448707/original/file-20220226-32551-3u0tue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448707/original/file-20220226-32551-3u0tue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448707/original/file-20220226-32551-3u0tue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448707/original/file-20220226-32551-3u0tue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/448707/original/file-20220226-32551-3u0tue.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">On March 23, 2021, 800kg of water vapour flowed over Sydney every second.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>Our <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021GL095335">recent research found</a> that in March 17-24 last year, NSW experienced an almost constant stream of high water vapour in the atmosphere above from both an atmospheric river that originated in the Indian Ocean and a high pressure system in the Tasman Sea. </p>
<p>On March 23, over 800kg of water vapour passed over Sydney every second - that’s 9.6 Sydney Harbours of water in one day.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/sydneys-disastrous-flood-wasnt-unprecedented-were-about-to-enter-a-50-year-period-of-frequent-major-floods-158427">Sydney's disastrous flood wasn't unprecedented: we're about to enter a 50-year period of frequent, major floods</a>
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<p>Likewise, soil moisture in south-east Queensland has been <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/water/landscape/?hootPostID=13514ca44d1deadb3fee343b2c226877#/sm/Relative/month/-28.4/130.4/3/Point////2022/2/26/">above average</a> since October last year. Last November was Australia’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs75.pdf?20220214">wettest</a> November on record with south-east Queensland receiving very-much-above average rainfall. </p>
<p>This meant the ground was already sodden. So when the heavy rain fell this week, Queensland flooded.</p>
<h2>What’s the role of climate change?</h2>
<p>We also calculated the likelihood of future atmospheric rivers as big as the one in March 2021 flowing over Sydney using the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained">latest generation</a> of climate models. </p>
<p>Earth is currently on track for <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-thermometer/">2.7°C warming</a> by the end of the century. Under this scenario, we found the chance of a similar weather event to the March floods will become 80% more likely. This means we are on track for more extreme rainfall and flooding in Sydney.</p>
<p>We also know climate change will increase the occurrence of atmospheric rivers over the planet, but more research is needed to determine just how often we can expect these damaging events to happen, including in southeast Queensland.</p>
<p>However, this path is not final. There is still time to change the outcome if we urgently reduce emissions to stop global warming beyond 1.5°C this century. Every little bit we do to limit carbon emissions might mean one less flood and one less person who has to rebuild.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-leave-a-legacy-of-mental-health-problems-and-disadvantaged-people-are-often-hardest-hit-157576">Floods leave a legacy of mental health problems — and disadvantaged people are often hardest hit</a>
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</p>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/176711/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kimberley Reid receives funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew King receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program. </span></em></p>A weather system called ‘atmospheric rivers’ is causing this inundation. In March last year, an atmospheric river brought 800kg of water vapour over Sydney every second.Kimberley Reid, PhD Researcher in Atmospheric Science, The University of MelbourneAndrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1576822021-03-25T18:53:57Z2021-03-25T18:53:57ZPregnant mothers’ stress during floods can disadvantage their babies, but it’s not inevitable. Here’s what we can do right now<p>New South Wales and Queensland are in the grip of a major flood crisis. Homes have been swept away, businesses inundated, and thousands evacuated.</p>
<p>Natural disasters like this are devastating, and in the rescue and recovery efforts it’s important to protect a particularly vulnerable group: pregnant mothers and their unborn babies. </p>
<p>When the floods hit Queensland in January 2011, we were a part of <a href="https://www.mcgill.ca/spiral/queensland-flood-study/description">a research team</a> that tracked the health and well-being of pregnant mothers. We also investigated the impact of this prenatal stress on the development of their babies until six years of age.</p>
<p>We found higher prenatal stress was associated with a range of negative impacts among the children as they grew up.</p>
<p>But these aren’t inevitable, and ensuring pregnant women get appropriate support during and after a disaster can make a big difference. Choosing the right coping strategies can also help.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-leave-a-legacy-of-mental-health-problems-and-disadvantaged-people-are-often-hardest-hit-157576">Floods leave a legacy of mental health problems — and disadvantaged people are often hardest hit</a>
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</p>
<hr>
<h2>So what is flood stress, and what are the effects on mothers and babies?</h2>
<p>There are two main types of flood stress. Objective stress is what happens to you: your house is flooded, your possessions are damaged or lost, you have to evacuate, you or your loved ones are injured or in peril.</p>
<p>Subjective stress is your emotional reaction: shock, distress, anger, anxiety, depression. </p>
<p>In our study, mothers who experienced more objective stress reported more immediate subjective stress, which led to longer-term depression, anxiety and post-traumatic <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000272">stress</a>.</p>
<p>This prenatal stress also affected children. Babies of stressed mothers were more likely to have a difficult <a href="https://doi.org/10.1097/DBP.0000000000000444">temperament</a> and lower social and problem-solving <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/infa.12166">skills</a>.</p>
<p>As toddlers, they were more likely to have poorer cognitive development, and poorer motor <a href="https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000272">development</a> including both fine (such as drawing) and gross (such as crawling) skills. They also had a higher likelihood of <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/infa.12286">behaviour</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2019.05.041">sleep</a> and <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S2040174417000186">interpersonal</a> problems.</p>
<p>As preschoolers, they were more likely to have <a href="https://doi.org/10.1017/S0954579418000408">anxiety</a> symptoms and poorer <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/dev.21767">motor</a> development. </p>
<p>It seems strange to think that what a pregnant mother feels could affect her baby, but stress feelings are underpinned by stress hormones like adrenaline and cortisol. These hormones can change the way the placenta <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psyneuen.2018.04.027">works</a>.</p>
<p>They can also cross the placenta and disrupt the unborn baby’s developing stress regulation system, which affects their <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psyneuen.2020.104716">reactions</a> to stressful events and situations after they’re born. What happens during pregnancy lays the <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/0-387-32632-4_1.pdf">foundation</a> for health and development across the life course, which is why the consequences of prenatal stress can last for so long. </p>
<h2>What can we do about it?</h2>
<p>This all sounds very serious, but negative consequences aren’t inevitable. Our research team found a range of strategies can reduce harm and protect the health of mothers and babies. </p>
<p>Continuity of maternity care during pregnancy matters. At a minimum this means keeping your antenatal appointments, and telling your health-care professional you’ve been affected by the floods.</p>
<p>Even better, find a hospital that offers midwifery group <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61406-3">care</a>, where the same midwife cares for you throughout pregnancy, birth and postpartum. Compared to standard care, where you see a different midwife at each appointment, flood-affected mothers in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s00737-017-0781-2">our</a> midwifery group care program had lower depression and anxiety and their baby’s early development was <a href="https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-018-1944-5">better</a>.</p>
<p>It’s also important for pregnant mothers to keep their diet consistent, even though this can be very difficult in a flood crisis when usual food and eating patterns can be disrupted. Eating less dairy, more sweets, skipping meals or stopping multivitamins was linked with differences in infant head <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/mcn.12359">circumference</a>, suggesting diet changes affect the way the developing baby grows.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Midwife talking to pregnant woman" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391584/original/file-20210324-19-1t1gn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/391584/original/file-20210324-19-1t1gn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391584/original/file-20210324-19-1t1gn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391584/original/file-20210324-19-1t1gn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391584/original/file-20210324-19-1t1gn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391584/original/file-20210324-19-1t1gn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/391584/original/file-20210324-19-1t1gn4s.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">If possible, make sure you see the same midwife across your prenatal appointments and tell them you’ve been affected by the floods.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Here’s how you can cope</h2>
<p>Choosing the right <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2020.03.165">coping strategy</a> for the situation can also help.</p>
<p>Emotion-focused strategies reduce distress in situations you can’t control, and are the best strategies during a flood crisis. These include positive reframing, acceptance, humour and emotional support.</p>
<p>Problem-focused strategies are great for situations where your actions can solve the problem. These might help during the recovery, and include planning, taking action, and getting help or advice.</p>
<p>Dysfunctional coping strategies can add to your stress in the long-term, including venting, distraction, avoiding and self-blame. It’s OK to vent occasionally — sometimes you need to get things off your chest. But once you’ve done that, activate the coping strategies that are the best match for the situation you’re in.</p>
<p>Keep things in perspective. In these days of a 24/7 news cycle and <a href="https://theconversation.com/when-too-much-news-is-bad-news-is-the-way-we-consume-news-detrimental-to-our-health-146568">doomscrolling</a> social media, we’re surrounded by distressing images. You might feel very distressed about what’s happening to others, even if the direct effects on you and your family are small.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/when-too-much-news-is-bad-news-is-the-way-we-consume-news-detrimental-to-our-health-146568">When too much news is bad news: is the way we consume news detrimental to our health?</a>
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<p>Limit your exposure to distressing stories and images if they start affecting your mental health. Trying to find the positives, like neighbours working together to support each other, can also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2020.09.041">help</a>.</p>
<p>Seek help if mental health symptoms persist. It’s natural to feel angry, shocked, upset and anxious in the face of a natural disaster. In a month, if you’re still experiencing strong feelings that affect your daily life, talk to your GP and seek <a href="https://www.blackdoginstitute.org.au/resources-support/post-traumatic-stress-order/">further support</a>. </p>
<p>Pregnant mothers need to be supported with high quality maternal care. Health-care professionals must also regularly <a href="https://theconversation.com/20-of-pregnant-australian-women-dont-receive-the-recommended-mental-health-screening-139979">screen</a> mothers for psychological distress during pregnancy and through early childhood. It’s even more important in natural disasters, where stress is long-term.</p>
<p>But around <a href="https://theconversation.com/20-of-pregnant-australian-women-dont-receive-the-recommended-mental-health-screening-139979">20% of pregnant Australian women</a> don’t receive this recommended screening. It needs to be an integrated part of helping communities bounce back after these devastating floods, from the initial crisis through the long recovery process.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/collective-trauma-is-real-and-could-hamper-australian-communities-bushfire-recovery-131555">Collective trauma is real, and could hamper Australian communities' bushfire recovery</a>
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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/157682/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mia Mclean receives funding from Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) Fellowship (2020) and Michael Smith Foundation for Health Research Trainee Award (2020). </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Gabrielle Simcock and Katrina Moss do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Flood-related stress can have a negative impact on pregnant mothers and their unborn babies. But our research found there are many strategies that can limit the harm.Katrina Moss, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in maternal and child health, The University of QueenslandGabrielle Simcock, Honorary Research Associate, Mater Research-UQ, The University of QueenslandMia Mclean, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of British ColumbiaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1316432020-02-26T18:55:16Z2020-02-26T18:55:16ZNatural disasters increase inequality. Recovery funding may make things worse<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/317252/original/file-20200226-24651-9buik8.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C93%2C12428%2C7125&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>My team and I have analysed the incomes of people affected by some of Australia’s worst bushfires, floods and cyclones in the past two decades. Our results are disheartening. </p>
<p>We’ve found the income gap routinely increases after a natural disaster. For example, following Queensland floods of 2010-11 the difference between those on low and middle incomes in the <a href="https://www.qra.qld.gov.au/sites/default/files/2018-11/brisbane_river_catchment_historical_factsheet.pdf">Brisbane River Catchment area</a> increased by about $7,000 a year.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/with-costs-approaching-100-billion-the-fires-are-australias-costliest-natural-disaster-129433">With costs approaching $100 billion, the fires are Australia's costliest natural disaster</a>
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<p>Low-income earners, small-business owners and part-time workers are more likely to lose income following a disaster. Middle and high-income earners, full-time workers and owners of larger businesses are far less likely; indeed they might even earn more. </p>
<p>Recovery and relief funding, which places greater weight on assisting businesses than on income support for individuals, might widen the income gap even further.</p>
<h2>Who loses</h2>
<p>Looking at disasters of different scales over the past 20 years, we’ve used the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ census data sets from 2006, 2011 and 2016 to compare the incomes of people living in disaster-hit areas with those in comparable areas not affected by disasters. </p>
<p>We examined the following catastrophes:</p>
<ul>
<li><p>the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria, which killed 173 people and caused <a href="http://australianbusinessroundtable.com.au/assets/documents/Report%20-%20Social%20costs/7.%20The%20cost%20of%20natural%20disasters%20-%20Australian%20experiences.pdf">A$7 billion in damage</a> </p></li>
<li><p>the 2010-11 Queensland floods, which killed 33 people and caused <a href="http://australianbusinessroundtable.com.au/assets/documents/Report%20-%20Social%20costs/7.%20The%20cost%20of%20natural%20disasters%20-%20Australian%20experiences.pdf">A$14 billion in damage</a> </p></li>
<li><p>Cyclone Oswald, which swept northeastern Australia in 2013 and pounded the Queensland town of Bundaberg – we used this case to measure the effect of a medium-scale catastrophe</p></li>
<li><p>the <a href="https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/publications/biblio/bnh-6293">2009 bushfires</a> that destroyed 38 homes in the town of Toodyay, in Western Australia – we used this as an example of a disaster afflicting a small regional town.</p></li>
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<p>Across most of these different types, scales and areas, we found low-income earners, small-business owners and part-time workers, on average, lost income after a disaster. </p>
<p>A waitress casually employed at a restaurant, for example, might have been asked not to come to work for a few months during a cleanup and recovery period.
Our findings suggest most people never make up the income they lose.</p>
<p>Those most likely to lose income following disasters were employed in agriculture, accommodation and food services (covering the tourism industry). Following the Black Saturday bushfires, for example, agricultural employees lost an average of A$8,000 in annual income for the next two years. Employees in the accommodation and food services industries lost an average of A$5,000. </p>
<h2>Who gains</h2>
<p>Post-disaster income losses do not affect full-time workers, higher-income earners or owners of larger businesses nearly so much. </p>
<p>In fact, we found some people in these categories can actually earn more money in the wake of a disaster.</p>
<p>Unlike the groups of people who lose, gains aren’t uniform. It varies by disaster. After the Black Saturday bushfires, for example, those employed in Victoria’s public and administrative services benefited most. After the 2010-11 Queensland floods, incomes rose for health and retail employees in the Brisbane River Catchment. </p>
<p>The following infographic shows losses and gains by income level for wage earners in the Brisbane River Catchment Area. Low-income earners lost an average of A$3,100 in the year following the floods. Middle and high-income earners gained an average of A$3,770 and A$3,380 respectively. Five years later high-income earners’ incomes were an average of A$4,590 higher. </p>
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<iframe title="Income variations" aria-label="Bar Chart" src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/a26hu/10/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="border: none;" width="100%" height="203"></iframe>
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<h2>Relief and recovery funding</h2>
<p>Our analysis suggests relief and recovery funding may contribute to widening the income gap, with the income gains for some groups indicating benefits are distributed unevenly.</p>
<p>The main reason is how programs are structured. Funding tends to be channelled to businesses, not households. Businesses receive tax deferrals, special disaster assistance grants, back-to-business workshop grants, cleanup operation grants, exceptional disaster assistance and other forms of subsidies. </p>
<p>In the six months following the Queensland floods, for example, just 10% of the recovery spending went to income and wage assistance. At least 80% <a href="https://www.cciq.com.au/assets/Documents/Advocacy/111014-October-CCIQ-report-to-the-Queensland-Government-Six-Months-on-from-Queenslands-Natural-Disasters.pdf">went to businesses</a>. </p>
<h2>Building a more sustainable model</h2>
<p>Overall, there is room to rethink how we might build a more sustainable model for disaster recovery. </p>
<p>It’s important to assist businesses because these are arteries of the economy. But four possible improvements to the current recovery funding model could help minimise the widening of the income gap.</p>
<p>First, assistance programs should make it a priority to balance the imperative of short-term aid with the importance of not making inequality worse in the longer term. </p>
<p>Second, funding arrangements need to account for the characteristics of different disasters, and the different patterns of social effects. Not all disasters are the same, but the current funding model tends to treat them as if they are.</p>
<p>Third, programs should account for the greater vulnerability of households that depend on part-time, casual work and other forms of insecure work. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/uber-drivers-experience-highlights-the-dead-end-job-prospects-facing-more-australian-workers-116973">Uber drivers' experience highlights the dead-end job prospects facing more Australian workers</a>
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<p>Fourth, programs should acknowledge the susceptibility of different employment sectors. While the <a href="https://www.disasterassist.gov.au/Pages/related-links/Natural-Disaster-Relief-and-Recovery-Arrangements.aspx">Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements</a> scheme provides some benefits to the farming sector, other sectors, such as accommodation and food services, can also be be hit hard. </p>
<p>Income matters. It shapes all household decisions. With more frequent and extreme weather events predicted, natural disasters present an increasing threat to social equality and all the benefits that flow from that. It is crucial to ensure relief and recovery efforts do not inadvertently contribute to widening the gap.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/131643/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mehmet Ulubasoglu receives funding from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre (BNHCRC). He is the project leader of the project "Optimising post-disaster recovery interventions in Australia", funded by the BNHCRC. </span></em></p>Low-income earners, small-business owners and part-time workers are most likely to lose income following a disaster.Mehmet Ulubasoglu, Professor of Economics, Head of the Department of Economics and Director of the Centre for Energy, the Environment and Natural Disasters, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1126072019-03-03T19:05:47Z2019-03-03T19:05:47ZTownsville floods show cities that don’t adapt to risks face disaster<p>A flood-ravaged Townsville has captured public attention, highlighting the vulnerability of many of our cities to flooding. The <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-15/queensland-floods-special-climate-statement/10816184">extraordinary amount of rain</a> is just one aspect of the disaster in Queensland’s third-biggest city. The flooding, increasing urban density, the management of the Ross River Dam, and the difficulties of dealing with byzantine insurance regulations have left the community with many questions about their future. </p>
<p>These questions won’t be resolved until we enhance the resilience of cities and communities against flooding. Adaptation needs to become an integral part of living with the extremes of the Australian environment. I discuss how to design and create resilient urban landscapes later in this article.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-floods-are-so-huge-the-only-way-to-track-them-is-from-space-111083">Queensland's floods are so huge the only way to track them is from space</a>
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<h2>Flood risk and insurance</h2>
<p>Another issue that affects many households and businesses is the relationship between insurance claims and <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/63766">1-in-100-year flood event overlay maps</a>. Projected rises in flood risks under climate change have led to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/20/townsville-homes-may-become-uninsurable-due-to-flooding-from-climate-change">concerns that parts of Townsville and other cities will become “uninsurable”</a> should the costs of cover become prohibitive for property owners. </p>
<p>Council flood data <a href="https://www.preventionweb.net/news/view/63766">used for urban planning and land-use strategies</a> is also used by insurers to assess the flood risk to individual properties. Insurers then price the risk accordingly. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-in-resilience-what-city-planners-can-learn-from-hobarts-floods-96529">Lessons in resilience: what city planners can learn from Hobart's floods</a>
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<p>However, in extraordinary circumstances, when the flooded land is actually larger than the area marked by the flood overlay map, complications emerge. In fact, that part of the community living outside the map’s boundaries is considered flood-free. Thus, those pockets of the community may have chosen not to have flood insurance and not have emergency plans, which leaves them even worse off after floods. This is happening in Townsville. </p>
<p>Yet this is nothing new. Many people experienced very similar circumstances in 2011. Flood waters covered as much land as Germany and France combined. Several communities were left on their knees. </p>
<p>Notwithstanding the prompt and vast response of the federal government and Queensland’s state authorities, a few years later Townsville is going through something alarmingly similar.</p>
<h2>Adaptation to create resilient cities</h2>
<p>To find a solution, we need to rethink how to implement the <a href="https://www.disaster.qld.gov.au/dmg/Prevention/Pages/3-5.aspx">Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework</a>. That is no easy task. However, it starts with shifting the perspective on what is considered a risk – in this case, a flooding event. </p>
<p>Floods, per se, are not a natural disaster. Floods are part of the natural context of Queensland as can be seen below, for instance, in the <a href="https://www.qhatlas.com.au/content/channel-country">Channel Country</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261144/original/file-20190227-150724-xvwvfx.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Floods are part of the Australian landscape. Here trees mark the seasonal riverbeds in the Queensland outback between Cloncurry and Mount Isa.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Cecilia Bischeri</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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</figure>
<p>The concept of adaptation as a built-in requirement of living in this environment then becomes pivotal. In designing and developing future-ready cities, we must aim to build resilient communities. </p>
<p>This is the ambitious project I am working on. It involves different figures and expertise with a shared vision and the support of government administrations that are willing to invest in a future beyond their elected term of office.</p>
<h2>Ideas for Gold Coast Resilientscape</h2>
<p>I live and work in the City of Gold Coast. Water is a fundamental part of the city’s character and beauty. In addition to the ocean, a complex system of waterways shapes a unique urban environment. However, this also exposes the city to a series of challenges, including flooding. </p>
<p>Last September, <a href="https://www.gchaveyoursay.com.au/industryhub/news_feed/updated-flood-overlay-maps">an updated flood overlay map</a> was made available to the community. The map takes into account the projections of a 0.8 metre increase in the sea level and 10% increases in storm tide intensity and rainfall intensity. </p>
<p>These factors are reflected in the 1-in-100-year flood overlay. It shows undoubtedly that the boundaries between land and water are changeable.</p>
<p>Building walls between the city and water as the primary flood protection strategy is not a solution. A rigid border can actually intensify the catastrophe. New Orleans and the <a href="https://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2006/01/">levee failures</a> during the passage of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 provide a stark illustration of this. </p>
<p>Instead, what would happen and what would our cities look like if we designed green and public infrastructures that embody flooding as part of the natural context of our cities and territory?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/design-for-flooding-how-cities-can-make-room-for-water-105844">Design for flooding: how cities can make room for water</a>
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<p>The current project, titled RESILIENTSCAPE: A Landscape for Gold Coast Urban Resilience, considers the role of architecture in enhancing the resilience of cities and communities against flooding. The proposal, in a nutshell, explores the possibilities that urban landscape design and implementation provide for resilience. </p>
<p>RESILIENTSCAPE focuses on the Nerang River catchment and the Gold Coast Regional Botanic Gardens, in the suburb of Benowa. The river and gardens were adopted as a case study for a broader strategy that aims to promote architectural solutions for a resilient City of Gold Coast. The project investigates the possibility of using existing green pockets along the Nerang River to store and retain excess water during floods. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261354/original/file-20190228-150721-xt0v13.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Gold Coast Regional Botanic Gardens is one of the green areas along the Nerang River that could be used to store and retain flood water.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_Coast_Regional_Botanic_Gardens_(08).jpg">Batsv/Wikimedia Commons</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
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<p>These green spaces, however, will not just serve as “water tanks”. If mindfully planned, the green spaces can double up as public parks and facilities. This would enrich the community’s social realm and maximise their use and return on investment. </p>
<p>The design of a landscape responsive to flooding can, by improving local urban resilience, dramatically change the impact of these events. </p>
<p>The goal of creating urban areas that are adaptive to an impermanent water landscape is the main driver of the project. <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/3068730/this-new-orleans-neighborhood-is-fighting-flooding-by-welcoming-it">New Orleans</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/disappearing-acts-reflecting-on-new-orleans-10-years-after-katrina-46834">Hurricane Katrina</a> and<a href="https://archpaper.com/2017/10/five-years-sandy-nyc-update-flood-resilience-zoning/"> New York</a> after <a href="https://theconversation.com/frankenstorm-sandy-wreaks-havoc-on-nyc-floods-cities-10420">Sandy</a> are <a href="https://www.nisconsortium.org/nisc-activities/neworleansfloodresexp/">investing heavily in this direction</a> and promoting <a href="http://www.rebuildbydesign.org/">international design competitions</a> and community participation to mould a more resilient future. Queensland, what are we waiting for?</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/floods-dont-occur-randomly-so-why-do-we-still-plan-as-if-they-do-93371">Floods don't occur randomly, so why do we still plan as if they do?</a>
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<p><em>This article has been updated to clarify the use of flood data by insurers in assessing risk and the cost of cover.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112607/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Cecilia Bischeri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Amid fears that parts of Townsville and other Australian cities might become “uninsurable”, making urban areas more resilient and adaptable to flooding is becoming more urgent.Cecilia Bischeri, Lecturer in Architecture, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1126162019-02-28T19:25:09Z2019-02-28T19:25:09Z2018-19 was Australia’s hottest summer on record, with a warm autumn likely too<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261351/original/file-20190228-150702-1t8sa4f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dirty water from Queensland's historic flooding, triggered by weeks of exceptional monsoon rains earlier in the year.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA Worldview/EPA</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Australian summers are getting hotter. Today marks the end of our warmest summer on record, setting new national temperature records. Worsening drought, locally significant flooding, damaging bushfires, and heatwaves capped a summer of extremes. </p>
<p>As we look to autumn, warmer temperatures overall and below average rainfall – especially in eastern parts of the country – are likely.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261345/original/file-20190228-150694-19ob1xc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261345/original/file-20190228-150694-19ob1xc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261345/original/file-20190228-150694-19ob1xc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261345/original/file-20190228-150694-19ob1xc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261345/original/file-20190228-150694-19ob1xc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=507&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261345/original/file-20190228-150694-19ob1xc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261345/original/file-20190228-150694-19ob1xc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261345/original/file-20190228-150694-19ob1xc.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=638&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
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<span class="caption">Australian summer mean temperature anomalies against the 1961–1990 average.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-stubborn-high-pressure-system-behind-australias-record-heatwaves-110442">The stubborn high-pressure system behind Australia's record heatwaves</a>
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<hr>
<h2>Very hot…</h2>
<p>The starkest feature of this summer was the record warmth. The national average temperature is expected to be about 2.1°C above average, and will easily beat the previous record high set in summer 2012-13 (which was 1.28°C warmer than average).</p>
<p>Very low rainfall accompanied the record heat of summer. At the national scale, each month was notably dry, and total summer rainfall was around 30% below average; the lowest for summer since 1982–83. The monsoon onset was delayed in Darwin until the 23rd of January (the latest since 1972–73) and typical monsoonal weather was absent for most of summer.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261393/original/file-20190228-106347-mrwv9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261393/original/file-20190228-106347-mrwv9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261393/original/file-20190228-106347-mrwv9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261393/original/file-20190228-106347-mrwv9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261393/original/file-20190228-106347-mrwv9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261393/original/file-20190228-106347-mrwv9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261393/original/file-20190228-106347-mrwv9w.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Preliminary summer 2018–19 mean temperature deciles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In December 2018 Australia saw its highest mean, maximum and minimum temperatures on record (monthly averages, compared to all other Decembers). <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs67.pdf">Notable heatwaves</a> affected the north of Australia at the start of the month, spreading to the west and south during the second half of December. Temperatures peaked at 49.3°C at Marble Bar in Western Australia on the 27th, with mid-to-high 40s extending over larger areas.</p>
<p>The heat continued into January, which set a national monthly mean temperature record at 2.91°C above the 1961–1990 average. Heatwave conditions which had emerged in December persisted, with a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs68.pdf">prolonged warm spell</a> and numerous records set. Eight of the ten hottest days for the nation occurred during the month, while a minimum temperature of 36.6°C at Wanaaring (Borrona Downs) in western New South Wales on the 26th set a new national minimum temperature record.</p>
<p>Temperatures moderated a little in the east of the country for February, partly in response to <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs69.pdf">flooding rainfall in tropical Queensland</a>. Even so, the national mean temperature will come in around 1.4°C above average, making this February likely to be the fourth or fifth warmest on record.</p>
<h2>…and very dry</h2>
<p>Australia has seen dry summers before and many of these have been notably hot. The summers of 1972–73 and 1982–83 – which featured mean temperatures 0.90°C and 0.92°C above average, respectively – both came during the latter stages of significant droughts, and were both records at the time. </p>
<p>As the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">State of the Climate 2018 report</a> outlines, Australia has warmed by just over 1°C since 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. This warming means global and Australian climate variability sits on top of a higher average temperature, which explains why 2018-19 was warmer again.</p>
<p>A major rain event affected tropical Queensland during <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs69.pdf">late January to early February</a>, associated with a slow-moving monsoonal low. Some sites had a year’s worth of rain in a two-week period, including Townsville Airport which had 1,257mm in ten days. Many Queenslanders affected by this monsoonal low went from drought conditions to floods in a matter of days. Flooding was severe and continues to affect rivers near the Gulf of Carpentaria, as well as some inland rivers which flow towards Kati Thanda–Lake Eyre.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261394/original/file-20190228-106371-1qnq3la.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261394/original/file-20190228-106371-1qnq3la.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261394/original/file-20190228-106371-1qnq3la.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261394/original/file-20190228-106371-1qnq3la.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=412&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261394/original/file-20190228-106371-1qnq3la.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261394/original/file-20190228-106371-1qnq3la.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261394/original/file-20190228-106371-1qnq3la.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=518&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Preliminary summer 2018–19 rainfall deciles.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>The outlook for autumn</h2>
<p>Spring 2018 saw a positive Indian Ocean Dipole which faded in early summer. At the start of summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific exceeded 0.8°C, which is the typical threshold for El Niño affecting the oceans, but these declined as summer progressed. Combined with a lack of coupling between the atmosphere and ocean, the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/?bookmark=enso">El Niño–Southern Oscillation</a> remained neutral, though normal rainfall patterns shifted to oceans to the north and east, leaving Australia drier as a result.</p>
<p>As we move into autumn, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole tend to have less influence at this time of year. The onset of new Indian Ocean Dipole or El Niño/La Niña events typically happens in late autumn or winter/spring. </p>
<p>Over recent years, autumn rainfall has also become less reliable, with declines in cool season rainfall in the southeast and southwest. Temperatures are also rising, in a local expression of the global warming trend.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-el-nino-and-la-nina-27719">Explainer: El Niño and La Niña</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Bureau’s outlook for autumn shows high probabilities that day and night-time temperatures will remain <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/summary">above average for most of the country</a>. We expect to see continued below-average rainfall in much of the east, where drought is currently widespread.</p>
<p>Looking to the winter, the Bureau’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/">ENSO Wrap-Up</a> suggests the Pacific Ocean is likely to remain warmer than average. The potential for an El Niño remains, with approximately a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the southern hemisphere autumn or winter, twice the normal likelihood.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261546/original/file-20190228-106338-myekh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261546/original/file-20190228-106338-myekh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/261546/original/file-20190228-106338-myekh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261546/original/file-20190228-106338-myekh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261546/original/file-20190228-106338-myekh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=401&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261546/original/file-20190228-106338-myekh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261546/original/file-20190228-106338-myekh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/261546/original/file-20190228-106338-myekh1.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=505&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rainfall outlook for autumn 2019.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Meteorology</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p><br></p>
<hr>
<p><em>For more information watch BOM’s <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/video">March–May 2019 Climate and Water Outlook video</a> and subscribe to receive <a href="https://e.bom.gov.au/link/id/zzzz53bb31db150fb433/page.html?prompt=1">Climate Information emails</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/112616/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The hottest Australian summer on record is ending, and it’s likely we’ve got a warm, dry autumn to come.David Jones, Climate Scientist, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyLynette Bettio, Senior Climatologist, Australian Bureau of MeteorologySkie Tobin, Climatologist, Australian Bureau of MeteorologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1118322019-02-18T05:29:35Z2019-02-18T05:29:35ZHow climate change can make catastrophic weather systems linger for longer<p>Many parts of Australia have suffered a run of severe and, in some cases, unprecedented weather events this summer. One common feature of many of these events – including the Tasmanian heatwave and the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-17/heroes-and-heartbreaks-of-the-townsville-floods/10799144">devastating Townsville floods</a> – was that they were caused by weather systems that parked themselves in one place for days or weeks on end.</p>
<p>It all began with a <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-stubborn-high-pressure-system-behind-australias-record-heatwaves-110442">blocking high</a> – so-called because it blocks the progress of other nearby weather systems – in the Tasman Sea throughout January and early February.</p>
<p>This system prevented rain-bearing cold fronts from moving across Tasmania, and led to prolonged hot dry northwesterly winds, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/january-was-australia-s-warmest-month-on-record-bureau-says-20190201-p50uz1.html">below-average rainfall and scorching temperatures</a>.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/dry-lightning-has-set-tasmania-ablaze-and-climate-change-makes-it-more-likely-to-happen-again-111264">Dry lightning has set Tasmania ablaze, and climate change makes it more likely to happen again</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Meanwhile, to the north, an <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-05/what-is-causing-record-rainfall-and-floods-in-townsville/10779032">intense monsoon low</a> sat stationary over northwest Queensland for 10 days. It was fed on its northeastern flank by extremely saturated northwesterly winds from Indonesia, which converged over the greater northeast Queensland area with strong moist trade winds from the Coral Sea, forming a “convergence zone”. </p>
<p>Ironically, these trade winds originated from the northern flank of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-stubborn-high-pressure-system-behind-australias-record-heatwaves-110442">blocking high in the Tasman</a>, deluging Queensland while leaving the island state parched.</p>
<h2>Unusually prolonged</h2>
<p>Convergence zones along the monsoon trough are not uncommon during the wet season, from December to March. But it is extremely rare for a stationary convergence zone to persist for more than a week.</p>
<p>Could this pattern conceivably be linked to global climate change? Are we witnessing a slowing of our weather systems as well as more extreme weather?</p>
<p>There does seem to be a plausible link between human-induced warming, slowing of jet streams, blocking highs, and extreme weather <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/10/extreme-weather-increases-50-percent-2100-jet-stream-stalls-climate-change/">around the world</a>. The recent <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-stubborn-high-pressure-system-behind-australias-record-heatwaves-110442">Tasman Sea blocking high</a> can be added to that list, along with other blocking highs that caused <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-26/california-deadly-constructive-wildfires-have-been-contained/10556028">unprecedented wildfires in California</a> and an <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-made-2018-european-heatwave-up-to-five-times-more-likely">extreme heatwave in Europe</a> last year.</p>
<p>There is also a trend for the slowing of the forward speed (as opposed to wind speed) of tropical cyclones around the world. One <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-warming-could-be-causing-tropical-stroms-slow-down-last-longer">recent study</a> showed the average forward speeds of tropical cyclones fell by 10% worldwide between 1949 and 2016. Meanwhile, over the same period, the forward speed of tropical cyclones dropped by 22% over land in the Australian region. </p>
<p>Climate change is expected to weaken the world’s circulatory winds due to greater warming in high latitudes compared with the tropics, causing a slowing of the speed at which tropical cyclones move forward.</p>
<p>Obviously, if tropical cyclones are moving more slowly, this can leave particular regions bearing the brunt of the rainfall. In 2017, Houston and surrounding parts of Texas received <a href="https://theconversation.com/is-hurricane-harvey-a-harbinger-for-houstons-future-83098">unprecedented rainfall</a> associated with the “stalling” of <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/01/25/580689546/harvey-the-most-significant-tropical-cyclone-rainfall-event-in-u-s-history">Hurricane Harvey</a>. </p>
<p>Townsville’s floods echoed this pattern. Near the centre of the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-05/what-is-causing-record-rainfall-and-floods-in-townsville/10779032">deep monsoon low</a>, highly saturated warm air was forced to rise due to colliding winds, delivering <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs69.pdf?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=org&utm_campaign=sm-017-0021&utm_content=Br">more than a year’s worth of rainfall</a> to parts of northwest Queensland in just a week. </p>
<p>The widespread rain has caused significant rises in many of the rivers that feed into the <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/satellite-image-shows-new-queensland-mega-river-caused-by-floods-20190214-p50xrt.html">Gulf of Carpentaria</a> and the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/great-barrier-reef-plumes-polluted-floodwater-coral-1333003">Great Barrier Reef lagoon</a>, and some runoff has made it into the Channel Country and will eventually <a href="https://www.afr.com/news/politics/inland-sea-pushes-queenslanders-to-the-limit-in-unprecedented-floods-20190212-h1b55t">reach Lake Eyre in South Australia</a>. Unfortunately, little runoff has found its way into the upper reaches of the Darling River system.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259457/original/file-20190218-56246-45247b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259457/original/file-20190218-56246-45247b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/259457/original/file-20190218-56246-45247b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259457/original/file-20190218-56246-45247b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259457/original/file-20190218-56246-45247b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=294&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259457/original/file-20190218-56246-45247b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259457/original/file-20190218-56246-45247b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/259457/original/file-20190218-56246-45247b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Satellite images before (right) and after (left) the floods in northwest Queensland.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Courtesy of Japan Meteorological Agency</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Huge impacts</h2>
<p>The social, economic and environmental impacts of Australia’s recent slow-moving weather disasters have been huge. Catastrophic fires invaded ancient <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-13/photos-reveal-bushfire-devastation-in-tasmanias-wild-south-west/10789102">temperate rainforests in Tasmania</a>, while Townsville’s unprecedented flooding has caused damage worth <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-17/heroes-and-heartbreaks-of-the-townsville-floods/10799144">more than A$600 million</a> and delivered a A$1 billion hit to cattle farmers in surrounding areas. </p>
<p>Townsville’s Ross River, which flows through suburbs downstream from the Ross River Dam, has reached a <a href="https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/when-the-rain-came-down-queensland-reels-from-flood-disaster-20190208-p50wnf.html">1-in-500-year flood level</a>. Some tributaries of the dam witnessed phenomenal amounts of runoff, reliably considered as a <a href="https://www.townsville.qld.gov.au/about-council/news-and-publications/media-releases/2019/february/ross-river-dam-statement">1-in-2,000-year event</a></p>
<p>Up to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/11/up-to-500000-drought-stressed-cattle-killed-in-queensland-floods">half a million cattle</a> are estimated to have died across the area, a consequence of their poor condition after years of drought, combined with prolonged exposure to water and wind during the rain event.</p>
<hr>
<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/queenslands-floods-are-so-huge-the-only-way-to-track-them-is-from-space-111083">Queensland's floods are so huge the only way to track them is from space</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>Farther afield, both <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-11/norfolk-drought-feels-the-heat-from-drought-conditions/10788932">Norfolk Island</a> and <a href="https://blog.thornleighfarm.com/drought-conditions-on-lord-howe-island/">Lord Howe Island</a> – located under the clear skies associated with the blocking high – have recorded exceptionally low rainfall so far this year, worsening the drought conditions caused by a very dry 2018. These normally lush subtropical islands in the Tasman Sea are struggling to find enough water to supply their residents’ and tourists’ demands.</p>
<p>Many parts of Australia have tolerated widespread extreme weather events this year, including some records. This follows a <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">warm and generally dry 2018</a>. In fact, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-official-bureau-of-meteorology-confirms-2018-was-a-scorcher-20190110-p50qh7.html">9 of the 10 warmest years on record</a> in Australia have occurred since 2005, with only 1998 remaining from last century with reliable records extending back to 1910. Steady warming of our atmosphere and oceans is directly <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/">linked to more extreme weather events</a> in Australia and globally. </p>
<p>If those extreme weather events travel more slowly across the landscape, their effects on individual regions could be more devastating still.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/111832/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Steve Turton has previously received funding from the Australian Government. </span></em></p>What do the recent Townsville floods and Tasmanian heatwave have in common? Both were caused by weather systems that stayed put for days or weeks on end. And global warming could worsen that trend.Steve Turton, Adjunct Professor of Environmental Geography, CQUniversity AustraliaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/657942016-10-21T01:15:55Z2016-10-21T01:15:55ZHow social media is helping Australian journalists uncover stories hidden in plain sight<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142081/original/image-20161017-12418-apjlw6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Journalists with the skills to dig into social media can discover connections between key players in complex, often global stories.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-132469673/stock-photo-woman-hand-pressing-social-media-icon-on-blue-background-with-world-map.html?src=8ZQ-RS0F60BPkHVCx6LHBA-1-73">Mathias Rosenthal via www.shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p><em>Social media has revolutionised how we communicate. In <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/the-social-media-revolution-31890">this series</a>, we look at how it has changed the media, politics, health, education and the law.</em></p>
<hr>
<p>A stray social media post that cracked open a child abuse scandal brewing in England and Australia for half a century. A Facebook group in the middle of a deadly flood, helping families and the media identify lost loved ones. Asylum seekers washed up on an Indonesian beach, staying in touch with an Australian reporter online.</p>
<p>I’ve spent the past three years researching how Australian investigative journalists use digital technologies in their work – and those are just a few real examples of how social media helped with breaking news stories in The Australian, The Times of London, the Sydney Morning Herald, the ABC’s 7.30 program and more.</p>
<p>At a time of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/media/newspaper-closures">newspaper closures</a> and <a href="http://www.niemanlab.org/2015/07/newsonomics-the-halving-of-americas-daily-newsrooms/">newsroom cuts around the world</a>, one of the hopeful findings of my research is that digital technologies can help journalists cover stories that would otherwise be too expensive or time-consuming to cover, or else impossible to find. </p>
<h2>Untangling webs of friends and followers</h2>
<p>It was the <a href="http://www.news.com.au/sport/more-sports/see-our-snapshot-of-todays-acc-report-detailing-the-use-of-performance-enhancing-drugs-and-crime-links-in-australian-sport/story-fndukor0-1226572696758">biggest Australian sports story of the year</a>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It all kicked off with a press conference in which ministers got up and they told the country that beloved football codes had been infiltrated by organised crime and that it was rife with the use of performance-enhancing substances, which was all pretty shocking … The chase was on across radio, television, you name it: who were the doctors? Who were the biochemists? Who were the players that had been allegedly taking this stuff? <strong>– Caro Meldrum-Hanna</strong></p>
</blockquote>
<p>The race was on for interviews with key insiders – especially biochemist Stephen Dank, who had worked with several AFL and NRL clubs including Essendon and Cronulla.</p>
<p>So how did ABC TV current affairs reporter Caro Meldrum-Hanna convince Dank to talk, beating so many better-connected sports journalists? </p>
<p>Her skills in digging into social media proved to be the difference, helping her draw connections between key players in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/after-the-essendon-saga-any-reform-to-anti-doping-regimes-must-give-athletes-a-greater-say-53212">supplements saga</a>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In order to find those people, ‘cause they were just names on paper, it was absolutely social media. Trawling Facebook, I was trawling YouTube, trawling Twitter, an old Myspace account I think it was, or a Bebo, desperately trying to find pictures of these people, because I didn’t know who they were and I didn’t know what their history was. That was absolutely vital, social media in that regard. And once that had been established and I could say who they were and show them, then after that I got the interview with Steve Dank and the rest sort of snowballed from there.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="32" data-image="" data-title="Caro Meldrum-Hanna: social media was 'absolutely vital'." data-size="512417" data-source="Caro Meldrum-Hanna" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<source src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/524/link-3-caro-mh-social-media-was-absolutely-vital.mp3" type="audio/mpeg">
</audio>
<div class="audio-player-caption">
Caro Meldrum-Hanna: social media was ‘absolutely vital’.
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Caro Meldrum-Hanna</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a><span class="download"><span>500 KB</span> <a target="_blank" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/524/link-3-caro-mh-social-media-was-absolutely-vital.mp3">(download)</a></span></span>
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<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pkk7BequD_Q?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Stephen Dank breaking his silence in an interview with Caro Meldrum-Hanna on the ABC’s 7.30.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p><a href="http://www.walkleys.com/walkleys-winners/sports_journalism_2013_caro_meldrum-hanna/">Meldrum-Hanna</a> is among the 16 leading Australian investigative journalists I’ve interviewed at length for my research. Together, they identified 14 different investigative tasks in which social media helps them do their jobs better, including finding names and verifying identities, speeding up investigations, verifying associations between people, and crowd sourcing information.</p>
<h2>From families caught in a deadly flood, to an international child abuse scandal</h2>
<p>I began to realise the huge possibilities of social media in 2011, while reporting on the deadly flash flooding in Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley for The Australian. </p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142129/original/image-20161018-16180-qe73vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142129/original/image-20161018-16180-qe73vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/142129/original/image-20161018-16180-qe73vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142129/original/image-20161018-16180-qe73vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142129/original/image-20161018-16180-qe73vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=888&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142129/original/image-20161018-16180-qe73vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142129/original/image-20161018-16180-qe73vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/142129/original/image-20161018-16180-qe73vs.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1116&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The updated edition of The Torrent.</span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Several families of the missing people posted photographs to Facebook asking for public help to find them. I contacted one family who gave permission for the photograph of the father, Bruce Warhurst, to be used in the newspaper. His daughter told me the terrifying story of <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/the-seconds-that-separated-life-and-death/story-e6frg6nf-1225985909274">their ordeal</a> trying to escape what many people described as an “inland tsunami”. </p>
<p>Social media also helped in finding people who were believed to have drowned, but who had <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/toowoombas-miracle-girl-surfaces-after-being-feared-drowned/story-e6frg6nf-1225991338315">actually survived</a>. (Those and other stories are shared in a new edition of my book <a href="https://penguin.com.au/books/the-torrent-a-true-story-of-hope-and-survival-2nd-edition-9780702259524">The Torrent</a>, <a href="https://penguin.com.au/books/the-torrent-a-true-story-of-hope-and-survival-2nd-edition-9780702259524">due out in January 2017</a>, which follows the survivors’ recovery in the years since.)</p>
<p>More than a year after the flood, I found social media made all the difference in a complex international investigation.</p>
<p>In late 2012, I received an email out of the blue from a man in England who claimed to be a victim of sexual abuse by a very senior cleric, Robert Waddington, whose eulogies after his death in 2007 praised his “<a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/churchs-wall-of-silence-on-sexual-abuse/story-e6frg6z6-1226639077238">special gift for teaching boys</a>”.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/choirboy-haunted-by-painful-memories/story-e6frg6nf-1226639101313">If the account was true</a>, there would be more abuse victims – but I had no names to try to find them. It was a seemingly impossible task. </p>
<p>However, within a couple of hours, I tracked down a post made to a social media site, <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/73855525/Old-Friends-announces-closure">Old Friends</a>, naming Waddington as a paedophile and providing the name of another victim, this time in Australia. </p>
<p>We used a secret Facebook group, email and Skype calls to interview the victims. Over the following six months, <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/churchs-wall-of-silence-on-sexual-abuse/story-e6frg6z6-1226639077238">evidence obtained from police</a> in Manchester, a long-running civil action in Australia, and documents from a failed Australian police investigation verified that decades of abuse by Waddington had been covered up by the Church of England and the Diocese of North Queensland. </p>
<p>Simultaneous front page stories <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/child-sex-scandal-in-two-countries-rocks-anglican-church/story-e6frg6nf-1226639078714">in The Times of London and The Australian</a> broke the story and led to <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/robert-waddingtons-cycle-of-abuse-stretches-beyond-50-years/story-e6frg6nf-1226654874606">more abuse victims</a> speaking out. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cL4lvnNA6RU?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Warning: contains details viewers could find distressing. Ray Munn describes how the priest Robert Waddington “groomed” him and other boys for abuse.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In Australia, the Anglican Church referred the case to the <a href="https://www.childabuseroyalcommission.gov.au/">Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse</a>. </p>
<p>The Church of England launched an inquiry. There, the case led to a review of the <a href="https://www.ncronline.org/news/global/top-anglican-calls-lifting-seal-confessional-child-abuse-cases">seal of the confessional</a> and a review of <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10248599/Paedophile-priests-church-re-examines-files-dating-back-60-years.html">clergy records dating back 60 years</a>. The UK inquiry vindicated the victims and led to the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/anglican-bishop-quits-over-sexual-abuse-coverup/news-story/357ff0d9c077d4c5fc4869af3b83ef1c">resignation</a> of the former Archbishop of York, Lord David Hope of Thornes. North Yorkshire police are currently <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/former-archbishop-investigated-over-claims-of-sex-abuse-cover-up-jrb8h2cpl">investigating the former archbishop</a> over his handling of complaints against Waddington.</p>
<p>As The Australian’s <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/author/Michael+McKenna">Michael McKenna</a>, who collaborated with me on that investigation, has said:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is no doubt that social media and the internet has completely changed the way that we do business for the greater community of journalists. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>The investigation is an example of global investigative journalism, which reaches beyond the <a href="https://theconversation.com/right-to-know-the-nation-the-people-and-the-fourth-estate-21253">“fourth estate”</a> in Australia, and demonstrates that a <em>global</em> fourth estate is emerging. </p>
<h2>Social media is another tool – not a panacea</h2>
<p>Keeping in contact with vulnerable news sources is now much easier, no matter where they are. Fairfax foreign correspondent <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/world/by/Michael-Bachelard-hveki">Michael Bachelard</a> interviewed asylum seekers on the beaches of Indonesia where their boats were washed ashore. Social media then enabled him to keep in touch with those people, who were continually having to move in search of a safe place to live. </p>
<p><audio preload="metadata" controls="controls" data-duration="24" data-image="" data-title="Michael Bachelard on using Facebook to follow asylum seekers." data-size="393716" data-source="Amanda Gearing" data-source-url="" data-license="CC BY" data-license-url="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<source src="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/528/link-6-bachelard-fb-asylum-seeker-contacts.mp3" type="audio/mpeg">
</audio>
<div class="audio-player-caption">
Michael Bachelard on using Facebook to follow asylum seekers.
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Amanda Gearing</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a><span class="download"><span>384 KB</span> <a target="_blank" href="https://cdn.theconversation.com/audio/528/link-6-bachelard-fb-asylum-seeker-contacts.mp3">(download)</a></span></span>
</div></p>
<p>Social media platforms are not a panacea for investigative journalism in financially stressed times. Some of the journalists I interviewed for my study were still not yet ready to embrace social media platforms for investigation, citing risks such as losing exclusivity on a story, factual error, risk to physical safety and legal risks.</p>
<p>But as I and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-investigative-journalists-are-using-social-media-to-uncover-the-truth-66393">others have found</a>, social media connections do allow some stories to be reported that would not otherwise be published.</p>
<p>One public post on social media can sometimes make it possible to investigate stories that have gone untold for too long. And powerful institutions that were once able to tightly control information – never imagining the advent of technologies that would allow isolated victims of crime to find one another across the world – can at last be called to account.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/65794/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Amanda Gearing receives funding from the Australian Government via an Australian Postgraduate Award and Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, via a Deputy Vice Chancellor's Scholarship. Amanda is also the author of The Torrent: A True Story of Heroism and Survival, published by UQP, a new edition of which will be released in January 2017. She is a member of the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance. </span></em></p>From a social media post that cracked open a decades-old abuse scandal in the UK and Australia, through to tracking asylum seekers, social media can be vital in breaking investigative news stories.Amanda Gearing, PhD Candidate, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/515732015-12-03T18:53:42Z2015-12-03T18:53:42Z500 years of drought and flood: trees and corals reveal Australia’s climate history<p>Australia is the land of drought and flooding rains, and in a <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002/pdf">recent paper</a> we’ve shown that’s been the case for more than 500 years. As part of our Australia and New Zealand Drought Atlas we’ve published the most detailed record of drought and wet periods (or “pluvials”) since 1500. </p>
<p>The data reveal that despite the severity of the Millennium Drought, the five worst single years of drought happened before 1900. But 2011 was the wettest year in our 513-year record. </p>
<p>The dominant theme of Australia’s drought history is variability. We may get one year of extremely wet conditions (for example in 2011) or we might get six years of extremely dry conditions (such as 2003-2009). </p>
<p>North Queensland may be flooded out while Victoria suffers with drought. Or in extreme circumstances, the entire eastern half of Australia might be bone dry.</p>
<p>Even as people change the climate by adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, variability will continue to play a large role in Australia’s climate. This year one of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/odds-keep-rising-for-a-big-el-nino-in-2015-45151">strongest El Niños</a> on record is kicking into high gear in the tropical Pacific, driving global temperatures higher still. </p>
<p>To tease out these complex patterns we need to look deep into the past. </p>
<h2>It’s in the trees (and coral)</h2>
<p>The existing drought records are relatively short and geographically patchy. Measurements from weather stations rarely extend beyond the early 1900s and informal historical records from diaries and ships logs — some of which go back to the first days of European settlement in Australia — are relatively uncommon and limited to a few sites. This has limited our understanding of drought variability to what has been directly observed over the past 120 years. </p>
<p>To extend the drought record beyond 1900, we used 177 tree ring and coral records from Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia to reconstruct summer (spanning December to February) drought conditions in New Zealand and most of Australia.</p>
<p>Trees and corals are sensitive to their environments. For example, trees grow less in dry years and more in wet years. We carefully examined, dated, and measured each growth ring in thousands of trees and then compared the patterns of growth to an index of drought variability, the Palmer Drought Severity Index. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104159/original/image-20151202-22480-1n5tm0s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104159/original/image-20151202-22480-1n5tm0s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104159/original/image-20151202-22480-1n5tm0s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104159/original/image-20151202-22480-1n5tm0s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104159/original/image-20151202-22480-1n5tm0s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104159/original/image-20151202-22480-1n5tm0s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104159/original/image-20151202-22480-1n5tm0s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104159/original/image-20151202-22480-1n5tm0s.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">One of the researchers (Kathy Allen) retrieving a tree core from a king billy pine in Tasmania.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Baker</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This index takes into account air temperature, rainfall, and soil water-holding capacity to give an indication of the water status of the environment. However, the data only extend back to 1900. By using the statistical relationship between drought and our tree rings and coral, we can translate the growth patterns into data going back hundreds of years.</p>
<p>What we found was a remarkably <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9w-xzhQoyUY">rich and complex history</a> of wet and dry conditions, particularly across eastern Australia. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104160/original/image-20151202-22442-qeipxr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104160/original/image-20151202-22442-qeipxr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104160/original/image-20151202-22442-qeipxr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104160/original/image-20151202-22442-qeipxr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104160/original/image-20151202-22442-qeipxr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=360&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104160/original/image-20151202-22442-qeipxr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104160/original/image-20151202-22442-qeipxr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104160/original/image-20151202-22442-qeipxr.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=452&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A slice of coral from the Great Barrier Reef, photographed under UV light. The lines show periods when sediment from flood plumes affect coastal reefs.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eric Matson, Australian Institute of Marine Science</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A history of drought</h2>
<p>Over the past five centuries we found extreme droughts similar to the recent Millennium Drought, but we also discovered wet periods that lasted decades. </p>
<p>We found short droughts of brutal intensity that blanketed all of eastern Australia, while other droughts of similar intensity were confined to small pockets across the continent. </p>
<p>The atlas also provides new geographical context for early historical droughts. For example, diaries from early settlers near Sydney documented a crippling drought in 1791-92. Our data demonstrate that this was one of the worst drought years in the past 500 years with extraordinarily dry conditions that stretched from Cape York to eastern Tasmania. The early colony was fortunate to survive.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104157/original/image-20151202-22473-69rerv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104157/original/image-20151202-22473-69rerv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/104157/original/image-20151202-22473-69rerv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104157/original/image-20151202-22473-69rerv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104157/original/image-20151202-22473-69rerv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=776&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104157/original/image-20151202-22473-69rerv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104157/original/image-20151202-22473-69rerv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/104157/original/image-20151202-22473-69rerv.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=976&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">1792 was one of the worst drought years Australia has experienced since 1500.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Patrick Baker</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>An obvious question is how do our modern droughts and floods stack up against earlier events? Of the five most extreme single years of drought in the past 500 years (when averaged across all of eastern Australia), not one occurred after 1900.</p>
<p>In contrast, two of the five wettest years in our data took place after 1950 (2011 was the wettest year in the 513-year record). The 1700s were particularly dry with three of the five worst drought years, but also notably had the most prolonged wet period (1730-60). </p>
<p>In eastern Australia, wet and dry conditions cycle back and forth over several decades, driven by the oceans around us. </p>
<p>When we compared the data to a recently developed index of changing atmospheric pressure called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), we found remarkable consistency between the two. The IPO tells us when we have unexpectedly warmer or cooler sea surface temps and air pressures. The IPO also interacts with El Nino and La Nina to make them stronger or weaker. </p>
<p>When the IPO was positive, eastern Australia experienced drought conditions for several decades; when it was negative, eastern Australia experienced pervasive wet conditions. From 1999-2012 we were in a negative phase of the IPO; now it appears we have just entered a strongly positive phase.</p>
<p>You may have noticed that the Millennium Drought happened in a negative IPO phase. Our data show that there is a strong relationship between the phases of the IPO and drought - until around 1976. After that the relationship gets weaker. Why is a question for further research, but one possibility is human-caused climate change.</p>
<p>This new data will help us understand what drives these swings between drought and floods, and help us predict what might happen in the future.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/51573/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Patrick Baker receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Turney receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jonathan Palmer receives funding from Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>The Millennium Drought was bad, but the most detailed record of droughts since 1500 reveals there were far more severe super-droughts in the past.Patrick Baker, ARC Future Fellow and Associate Professor of Silviculture and Forest Ecology, The University of MelbourneChristian Turney, ARC Laureate Fellow and Professor of Earth Sciences and Climate Change, UNSW SydneyJonathan Palmer, Research Fellow, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/504032015-11-10T22:58:35Z2015-11-10T22:58:35ZCrisis communication: saving time and lives in disasters through smarter social media<p>As the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-17/remembering-the-blue-mountains-bushfires-one-year-on/5819100">worst bushfires</a> seen for generations in New South Wales raged across the Blue Mountains, Southern Highlands and the Central Coast two years ago, people urgently needed fast, reliable information – and many turned to their phones to get it. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/">NSW Rural Fire Service</a> was prepared with a smartphone app, <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/fire-information/fires-near-me">Fires Near Me</a>, which was downloaded almost 200,000 times. At the height of the fires, its <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nswrfs/?fref=ts">Facebook page</a> was recording more than a million views an hour.</p>
<p>A social media campaign also helped the NSW Rural Fire Service Facebook community more than double from 120,000 to 280,000, while its Twitter reach jumped from 20,000 to 37,000 followers. Crucially, this helped to alert people to danger areas and places to avoid driving near. </p>
<p>If every emergency in Australia was handled in that way, Australians would be better able to cope with disasters we face, including fires, floods and storms.</p>
<p>But our <a href="http://socialmedia.qut.edu.au/crisiscommsreport.pdf">new policy report</a>, released today, shows that there’s still much more to do to consistently match the 2013 response to the NSW fires across the nation.</p>
<p>We found that while Australia is a leader in uses of social media for crisis communication within emergency management organisations, much activity is still relatively <em>ad hoc</em>, rather than being systematically embedded within, or effectively coordinated across, agencies. </p>
<p>Australia also lacks frameworks to enable agencies in one place to learn from the experiences in other parts of the country. That might not sound important – but in times of acute crisis, such disconnects between emergency agencies can cost lives. </p>
<p>Based on a three-year study on how improve social media for crisis communication, our <a href="http://socialmedia.qut.edu.au/crisiscommsreport.pdf">Support Frameworks for the Use of Social Media by Emergency Management Organisations</a> report makes four key recommendations for Australia, to:</p>
<ul>
<li>Develop a national framework for best practices for social media use in crises</li>
<li>Create a national network of Australian emergency management organisations’ social media practitioners</li>
<li>Improve coordination of federal, state and local government agencies</li>
<li>Develop a federal government social media task force. </li>
</ul>
<p><div data-react-class="Tweet" data-react-props="{"tweetId":"393569555219755008"}"></div></p>
<h2>Disaster-ready social media</h2>
<p>The NSW Rural Fire Service is just one of a growing number of emergency management organisations around the world using social media to provide emergency warnings, promote community meetings, and use photographs shared by the public on social media to identify and act on crisis hot-spots. </p>
<p>Social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter have played a crucial role in many other recent disasters, including the Christchurch earthquakes, <a href="http://www.cci.edu.au/floodsreport.pdf">the 2011 Queensland floods</a>, <a href="http://www.journalism.org/2012/11/06/hurricane-sandy-and-twitter/">Hurricane Sandy in the US</a>, the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and the <a href="http://social-media-for-development.org/nepal-earthquake-how-social-media-has-been-used-in-the-aftermath/">2015 Nepalese earthquake</a>. </p>
<p>Individuals, community groups and emergency management organisations have all recognised the value of sharing information and advice about rapidly unfolding disasters. Content mined from social media platforms is now being <a href="http://www.digital-humanitarians.com/">incorporated into the overall event picture</a> by emergency management organisations.</p>
<p>But Australian authorities could do better, as our report shows. </p>
<p>Institutional support for the use of social media by emergency management organisations in Australia is still variable, and often depends on the personal enthusiasm of leaders within those organisations. That’s why we need to instead establish a national framework for the use of social media in crisis communication, so that everyone learns from those leading the way, such as the NSW Rural Fire Service and the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-21/qps-media-win-the-social-media-game-back-to-the-future/6872090">Queensland Police Service</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=372&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101343/original/image-20151110-29292-1j8mrv9.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=467&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Twitter users can activate emergency alerts from the Queensland Police Service and others.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://twitter.com/QPSmedia/alerts">https://twitter.com/QPSmedia/alerts</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There is also an urgent need for better knowledge sharing across the many local, state, and federal organisations involved with crisis communication. So we recommend the creation of a national network of social media units within emergency management organisations, which could also oversee the development of accredited professional training options.</p>
<p>The rich experience that exists within the network could then be pooled and documented in a national resource centre. We recommend the establishment of a central coordinating office to operate the network, placed at the <a href="https://www.coag.gov.au/">COAG</a> level, within the already established <a href="https://www.ag.gov.au/EmergencyManagement/About-us-emergency-management/Pages/Committees-and-councils.aspx">Australia-New Zealand Emergency Management Committee</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=481&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/101361/original/image-20151110-29337-1s375lz.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=605&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Find out more about the best way to stay up to day on warnings and forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social-media/">http://media.bom.gov.au/social-media/</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Lessons learnt from the increasing use of social media as a key channel for crisis communication are valuable for many other forms of government communication. </p>
<p>Our report also recommends the establishment of a federal government Social Media Task Force, to explore, encourage, and develop more innovative approaches to using social media across all relevant government functions.</p>
<p>Promotion of other social media services, such as the Bureau of Meteorology’s <a href="http://media.bom.gov.au/social-media/">BOM alerts</a>, would boost the community’s capacity to respond to extreme weather warnings, helping save lives and better protecting homes, businesses and belongings. </p>
<h2>Working with the public on social media</h2>
<p>Worldwide, emergency organisations’ use of social media in crisis situations is still at a relatively early stage. In that time, important advances have been made in Australia. But there is considerable scope to do even better in future.</p>
<p>As the US Federal Emergency Management Agency’s director Craig Fugate has observed, successful emergency management requires working with the public as part of a team. Reflecting on the lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, <a href="http://www.dhs.gov/news/2011/10/25/written-testimony-fema-house-homeland-security-subcommittee-emergency-preparedness">Fugate said</a> that:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>if you wait until you know how bad something is to begin a response, you have lost time.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>After the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/october-blew-away-heat-records-for-any-month-of-any-year-bureau-of-meteorology-20151102-gkoo51.html">hottest October on record</a> in many parts of Australia, and with an El Niño event now occurring in the Pacific Rim, it is likely that we will once again see a summer of bushfires, storms, floods and cyclones.</p>
<p>Social media is not a panacea; other ways of <a href="http://www.ag.gov.au/Publications/Documents/AustraliasEmergencyWarningArrangements/Australias-Emergency-Warning-Arrangements.pdf">sharing emergency warnings</a> including radio broadcasts are still crucial. </p>
<p>But social media has become another essential way for authorities to share and discover potentially life-saving information in a disaster. If emergency organisations work together more effectively, and are better engaged with their local communities through social media before, during and after a crisis, it could prove the difference in times when every second counts.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>Terry will be online for a Twitter Q&A between 4 and 5pm AEDT on Wednesday, November 11, 2015. Head over to <a href="http://www.twitter.com/ConversationEDU">Twitter</a> and join in using #AskAnExpert.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/50403/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Terry Flew receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Axel Bruns receives funding from the Australian Research Council.</span></em></p>When disaster strikes, more people than ever are turning to social media to find out if they’re in danger. But Australian emergency services need to work together more to learn what works to save lives.Terry Flew, Professor of Media and Communications, Queensland University of TechnologyAxel Bruns, Professor, Creative Industries, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/260532014-05-22T04:51:59Z2014-05-22T04:51:59ZMarine reserves saved coral reefs from Queensland floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48984/original/kdmj55d8-1400569643.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=28%2C21%2C4702%2C3144&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Floodwater plumes, like this one in Moreton Bay, do less damage to reefs that are in marine reserves.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Healthy Waterways/supplied</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Marine reserves are a hot topic in Australia, with federal and state governments debating whether to allow recreational fishers to take fish from within their boundaries. But <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12606/abstract">new research</a> demonstrates that reserves can have a real benefit for marine ecosystems — by protecting coral reefs from floods. </p>
<p>We enjoy fishing; but we also appreciate that marine reserves have many positives. Yes, they restrict fishing in certain areas, but they have been shown to increase the numbers of catchable fish outside reserves. </p>
<p>Our study shows that reserves can also improve the resilience of the habitats that fish rely on. Without them, there would be fewer fish for everyone.</p>
<h2>Reefs better off in reserves</h2>
<p>Our research, published today in <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12606/abstract">Global Change Biology</a>, investigates how coral reefs respond to disturbance. In 2011 Queensland was struck by catastrophic flooding, which which resulted in <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/weather/threequarters-of-queensland-a-disaster-zone-20110111-19mf8.html">three-quarters of Queensland being declared a flood disaster zone</a> – an area as big as France, Germany and Italy combined.</p>
<p>While the disaster on land is <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/queensland-floods">well documented</a>, we wondered what happened out to sea. We looked at coral reefs in Moreton Bay near the mouth of the Brisbane River, which drains into the bay. </p>
<p>Ten coral reefs were surveyed by a team of divers before the flood, immediately after the flood had passed, and again one year later. Four reefs were inside marine reserves and six reefs were open to fishing.</p>
<p>We found that reefs in marine reserves, where no fishing is allowed, were better able to cope with flood impacts compared to reefs where fishing is allowed.</p>
<h2>How floods affect reefs</h2>
<p>The shift in catchment land-use from predominantly forested to agricultural and urban means that floods dump lots of sediment into coastal waters. This smothers inshore coral reefs and fuels the rapid growth of algae. Algae compete with coral for space and can overgrow and harm coral when nutrients are in plentiful supply (as is the case after floods). </p>
<p>On healthy coral reefs the growth of algae is kept under control by herbivorous fish (i.e. fish that eat plants) such as rabbitfish, parrotfish and surgeonfish. </p>
<p>The settlement of baby corals is also important and helps to maintain coral dominance. Both grazing by herbivorous fish and coral settlement are vital to sustaining the reef’s health. </p>
<p>Our Moreton Bay research shows that coral reefs inside marine reserves support more herbivorous fish, which are harvested by spear and net fishers outside reserves. Reserve reefs also experience greater herbivory and coral settlement than similar reefs that are open to fishing. This means that after the 2011 floods, algae was rapidly removed from reefs in marine reserves, but wasn’t controlled on similar fished reefs.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48807/original/vr6c2rff-1400463052.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48807/original/vr6c2rff-1400463052.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48807/original/vr6c2rff-1400463052.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48807/original/vr6c2rff-1400463052.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48807/original/vr6c2rff-1400463052.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48807/original/vr6c2rff-1400463052.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48807/original/vr6c2rff-1400463052.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=566&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Rabbitfish are important herbivores on coral reefs in Moreton Bay.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Dr Andrew Olds</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Do reserves protect other ecosystems from disturbance?</h2>
<p>So we know reserves can help protect reefs from floods — could the same apply to other ecosystems? </p>
<p>To withstand disturbances (such as floods), reserves need to promote processes that enable ecosystems to function. In the case of reefs in Moreton Bay, this is herbivory and coral settlement. </p>
<p>Other studies have shown that reserves can have benefits for ecological processes (like herbivory and predation) in <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/02/17/0908012107">kelp forests</a>, <a href="http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v371/p11-21/">seagrass meadows</a> and <a href="http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/09-1949.1">forests</a>. But we don’t yet know if this will translate into greater capacity to recover from disturbances. </p>
<p>Ultimately, protecting marine ecosystems from disturbance depends on how reserves are designed, why they’re created, and how they are managed. <a href="https://theconversation.com/worlds-largest-survey-of-marine-parks-shows-conservation-can-be-greatly-improved-22827">Recent research</a> led by the University of Tasmania showed that by-and-large, marine reserves aren’t doing the job of protecting marine life, but well-designed and managed reserves can have eight times the number of large fish.</p>
<h2>Reserves could lead in fight against climate change</h2>
<p>The main purpose of conservation strategies such as marine reserves is to maintain and enhance biodiversity. But there is now also great interest in using reserves to improve the resilience of degraded ecosystems. </p>
<p>Our research adds weight to the idea that reserves can promote ecosystem health, at least in coastal waters. Our study also suggests marine reserves can play a key role in protecting coastal ecosystems from future disturbance, and particularly some of the <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1452.html">effects of climate change</a>. The capacity of marine reserves to protect coral reefs from floods will likely be important in the future, given that the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are projected to increase. </p>
<p>Our findings provide strong evidence that well designed and managed marine reserves can deliver sound benefits for ecosystems – many of which take time to become apparent. </p>
<p>The ecosystem benefits of marine reserves stem from the key roles that fish play in coastal habitats. For example, herbivorous fish on coral reefs remove algae and promote coral health, but can also be harvested heavily by spear and net fishers. </p>
<p>Re-opening marine reserves to fishing can, therefore, have unintended consequences that extend beyond direct effects on fish and fishers, and may impact on the functioning of coastal ecosystems. </p>
<p><em>Dr Andrew Olds conducted this study at Griffith University and has since moved to the University of the Sunshine Coast.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26053/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>David Rissik has received funding from the ARC and Queensland government. </span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Kylie Pitt received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Queensland Department of Science, Information, Technology, Innovation and the Arts to undertake this research.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rod Connolly receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts to study the resilience of coastal and marine ecosystems.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Russ Babcock received funding from the Qld Government former Department of Environment and Resource Management, and Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with the CSIRO.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Andrew Olds and Paul Maxwell do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Marine reserves are a hot topic in Australia, with federal and state governments debating whether to allow recreational fishers to take fish from within their boundaries. But new research demonstrates…Andrew Olds, Research Fellow, Griffith UniversityDavid Rissik, Deputy Director (General Manager), National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Griffith UniversityKylie Pitt, Senior Lecturer, Griffith School of Environment, Australia Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Griffith UniversityPaul Maxwell, Marine Ecologist, Griffith UniversityRod Connolly, Professor in Marine Science, Griffith UniversityRuss Babcock, Senior Principal Research Scientist, CSIROLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/266462014-05-21T20:22:29Z2014-05-21T20:22:29ZRecord rains made Australia a giant green global carbon sink<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48987/original/dvnymk7w-1400572015.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The swollen Fitzroy River in Queensland, Australia, where heavy rains in early 2011 led to extraordinary regrowth with a global impact.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/tgerus/5327345774/in/photolist-97L3id-98Dguw-a17F3A-97EtWz-9cJTi3-99XRsh-9cJT3j-9cFMPe-9a4jg2-9cDznh-9cAyEi-9cAz5F-9cAzut-9cDD69-9cDFHN-9cDAG7-9cDCJC-9cDJ5C-9cAvMH-9cDAk9-9cADj4-9cDBXo-9cABvF-9cDGiS-9cFMy2-99FqbE-99BbyW-99xvMf-9a8Hri-99JrfT-99QSy4-99umJV-9a7sEN-99B1N7-9ayBD7-99B6Y5-99uoPZ-99upS4-99TgAm-9cJTzJ-9bkawk-9bogTG-99Fqku-99up3a-9cDwsS-9cDM9A-9cAHYk-9cAFmP-9cDyxL-9cDN99">Capt. W. M. & Tatters/Flickr</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/">CC BY-NC</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>Record-breaking rains triggered so much new growth across Australia that the continent turned into a giant green <a href="https://theconversation.com/explainer-how-much-carbon-can-the-worlds-forests-absorb-14816">carbon sink</a> to rival tropical rainforests including the Amazon, our new research shows.</p>
<p>Published in the <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature13376.html">international journal Nature</a>, our study found that vegetation worldwide soaked up 4.1 billion tons of carbon in 2011 – the equivalent of more than 40% of emissions from burning fossil fuels that year. </p>
<p>Unexpectedly, the largest carbon uptake occurred in the semi-arid landscapes of Australia, Southern Africa and South America.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49075/original/bh3bfd25-1400638206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49075/original/bh3bfd25-1400638206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49075/original/bh3bfd25-1400638206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49075/original/bh3bfd25-1400638206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49075/original/bh3bfd25-1400638206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=464&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49075/original/bh3bfd25-1400638206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49075/original/bh3bfd25-1400638206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49075/original/bh3bfd25-1400638206.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=584&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The modelled net carbon uptake of the Australian landscape in December 2010 at the start of the big wet (above), compared with December 2009 (below).</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://carbonwaterobservatory.csiro.au">carbonwaterobservatory.csiro.au</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49073/original/244sfnhh-1400638074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49073/original/244sfnhh-1400638074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49073/original/244sfnhh-1400638074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49073/original/244sfnhh-1400638074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49073/original/244sfnhh-1400638074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=458&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49073/original/244sfnhh-1400638074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49073/original/244sfnhh-1400638074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49073/original/244sfnhh-1400638074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=576&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">carbonwaterobservatory.csiro.au</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>It set a new record for a land-based carbon sink since high-resolution records began in 1958, in a remarkable example of ecosystems working to stabilise the Earth’s climate.</p>
<p>And that had a global impact. While atmospheric carbon dioxide still rose in 2011, it grew at a much lower rate – nearly 20% lower – than the average growth over the previous decade.</p>
<p>Almost 60% of the higher than normal carbon uptake that year, or 840 million tons, happened in Australia. That was due to a combination of factors, including geography and a run of very dry years, followed by record-breaking rains in 2010 and 2011.</p>
<p>Yet our research raises as many questions as it answers – in particular, about whether the Earth’s natural climate control mechanisms could prove even more volatile than previously thought.</p>
<h2>The rain that made the world’s ocean fall</h2>
<p>From October 2010 to March 2011, an extraordinary rainfall event occurred over most of Australia, which resulted in <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/environment/weather/threequarters-of-queensland-a-disaster-zone-20110111-19mf8.html">three-quarters of Queensland being declared a flood disaster zone</a> – an area as big as France, Germany and Italy combined.</p>
<p>Averaged across Australia, <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12">the Bureau of Meteorology recorded</a> rainfall of 703 millimetres for 2010 and 708 mm for 2011. That was well above the long-term average of 453 mm for the period of 1900 to 2009.</p>
<p>Excess rain reached most parts of the continent, in what proved to be the wettest two years combined <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/">since national climate records began in 1900</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48989/original/p75w9593-1400572960.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48989/original/p75w9593-1400572960.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48989/original/p75w9593-1400572960.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48989/original/p75w9593-1400572960.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48989/original/p75w9593-1400572960.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48989/original/p75w9593-1400572960.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48989/original/p75w9593-1400572960.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48989/original/p75w9593-1400572960.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The 2011 La Niña: So strong, the oceans fell.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/OceanEvents/GRACE_2010-11_GMSL_ENSO_Oct2012">Boening et. al. (2012)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Queensland was the worst affected area, with <a href="http://myregion.gov.au/news/queensland-marks-flood-anniversary">35 people killed</a> in floods that broke <a href="http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/8782/QFCI-Interim-Report-Chapter-1-Summary-of-weather-and-flood-events.pdf">more than 100 river height records</a>, and damaged 30,000 homes and businesses in cities and towns including Brisbane, Ipswich and Toowoomba. (You can see ABC News images of Brisbane <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/specials/qld-floods/">before and after the floods here</a>.)</p>
<p>The big rainfall event was part of a global phenomenon called the <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/watl/about-weather-and-climate/australian-climate-influences.shtml?bookmark=enso">El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)</a>, which reflects atmospheric pressure changes across the tropical Pacific Ocean, in its La Niña phase. It brought above-average rainfall not only to Australia but also to other parts of the world, particularly in southern Africa and northern South America.</p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XPUrjfFss68?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">Euronews covers the 2011 Queensland floods.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The power of La Niña to evaporate water from the oceans was boosted by the ongoing high sea-surface temperatures that are part of a long-term trend of ocean warming. That trend has been shown to be associated with the release of greenhouse gases <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/">from the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation</a>.</p>
<p>This massive rain event was so significant that sensors on-board the twin satellites GRACE estimated a decrease in ocean water mass of 1.8 trillion tons. That remarkable finding was measured by changes in the Earth’s gravitational field, brought about by the transfer of water from the ocean to the atmosphere and land surface.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48990/original/3q8vy6x3-1400573634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48990/original/3q8vy6x3-1400573634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/48990/original/3q8vy6x3-1400573634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48990/original/3q8vy6x3-1400573634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48990/original/3q8vy6x3-1400573634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48990/original/3q8vy6x3-1400573634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48990/original/3q8vy6x3-1400573634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/48990/original/3q8vy6x3-1400573634.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The drop in global sea level in 2011, which went against the trend of the previous 18 years.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/OceanEvents/GRACE_2010-11_GMSL_ENSO_Oct2012">Boening et. al. (2012)</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This made the ocean’s <a href="http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Staff/Fasullo/my_pubs/Boening2012etalGRL.pdf">sea level fall by 5 millimetres</a> from the beginning of 2010 to mid-2011, going against the average sea-level rise of <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/">3mm a year over the previous 18 years</a> associated with global warming.</p>
<p>Australia played a major role in this sea-level fall, for several reasons. It was partly due to vast amounts of rain that fell over Australia. The continent’s hydrological characteristics also played a role, with large impediments for rainfall to flow quickly back to the ocean, such as <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50834">the large continental interior basins</a>. </p>
<p>And Australia was a country in need of a big drink. The parched continent was emerging from a multi-year drought, particularly in the south-east region, meaning the land acted as a huge sponge, soaking up the heavy rainfall.</p>
<h2>Seeing the Earth change colour from above</h2>
<p>As a result of the unusually heavy rains, the Earth’s vegetation “greened” in 2011 in ways not measured over the previous 30 years, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere dryland ecosystems.</p>
<p>This global greening was detected by satellites, which observed increases in canopy foliage extent and vegetation water content, which both imply vegetation growth.</p>
<p>Combined, these measurements indicated that the world’s annual production of new plant matter significantly increased in 2011 when compared to the previous decade.</p>
<p>Regions in the Southern Hemisphere including Australia, southern Africa, and temperate South America contributed 80% of the change, especially their savannas and other semi-arid areas.</p>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49062/original/rvpjsztg-1400635835.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49062/original/rvpjsztg-1400635835.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49062/original/rvpjsztg-1400635835.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49062/original/rvpjsztg-1400635835.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49062/original/rvpjsztg-1400635835.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=453&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49062/original/rvpjsztg-1400635835.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49062/original/rvpjsztg-1400635835.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49062/original/rvpjsztg-1400635835.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=570&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">New growth springing up around the Murray River, Hume Reservoir and Lake Tyrrell in south-eastern Australia, September 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/australia_ndvi.php">NASA</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<figure class="align-right zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49065/original/xgjj78gn-1400636327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49065/original/xgjj78gn-1400636327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49065/original/xgjj78gn-1400636327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49065/original/xgjj78gn-1400636327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49065/original/xgjj78gn-1400636327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=450&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49065/original/xgjj78gn-1400636327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49065/original/xgjj78gn-1400636327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49065/original/xgjj78gn-1400636327.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=565&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The same region in September 2006. This and the image above show how growing conditions compared to average mid-September conditions over 2000 to 2011. See more images here: http://1.usa.gov/RSMka6.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">NASA</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>That winter, June to August 2011, Australia was the greenest that it has ever been seen in the satellite period (since 1982).</p>
<p>Our <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature13341.html">new study in Nature</a> also shows how fire emissions – normally a big factor in reducing Australia’s capacity to store carbon – were suppressed by about 30%, contributing even further to the continent’s greening. </p>
<p>In addition to the unprecedented vegetation greening of Australia during 2010 and 2011, we also observe a greening trend over the continent since 1980s, particularly during the months of the Australian autumn (March, April, and May).</p>
<p>That has happened for a number of reasons, including <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01746.x/abstract">increased continental rainfall</a> over the past few decades; plants growing in an atmosphere with increasing carbon dioxide <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50563/abstract">using water more efficiently</a>; and changes in land management such as fire suppression, expansion of invasive species, and changes in livestock grazing that have led to more woodland.</p>
<h2>The upsides of going green</h2>
<p>Despite recurrent drought conditions in some regions, there is a current greening trend over Australia.</p>
<p>Overall, satellites show Australian landscapes are greener now than they have been over the past 30 years.</p>
<p>A greener Australia has a number of environmental and other benefits, including better protection for soils, increased soil-water holding capacity and soil fertility, and more plant feed to sustain larger animal populations.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49046/original/4frqd6tp-1400629140.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49046/original/4frqd6tp-1400629140.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/49046/original/4frqd6tp-1400629140.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49046/original/4frqd6tp-1400629140.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49046/original/4frqd6tp-1400629140.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=395&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49046/original/4frqd6tp-1400629140.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49046/original/4frqd6tp-1400629140.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/49046/original/4frqd6tp-1400629140.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=497&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Green growth flourishing in central Australia, 2011.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Eva van Gorsel</span>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/">CC BY-NC-ND</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>However, more vegetation can lead to less water being available to replenish water tables and feed rivers, even though <a href="http://www.biogeosciences.net/10/2011/2013/bg-10-2011-2013.html">Australia loses more than 50% of all the rainfall</a> to the atmosphere as soil evaporation, without contributing to vegetation growth.</p>
<p>This is in sharp contrast to temperate and tropical ecosystems, where a large part of the water is returned to the atmosphere via vegetation. </p>
<h2>Fire, drought and rapid carbon release</h2>
<p>However, we now need to consider whether this growing accumulation of carbon in semi-arid regions of the Southern Hemisphere could become a future climate liability through fire and drought. </p>
<p>Land and ocean carbon sinks absorb around half of the world’s emissions from burning fossil fuels each year, which helps to slow the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from human activities. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.climatechange2013.org/">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report</a> found that we are likely to see an increase in climate variability that includes drier, more fire-prone conditions across large parts of the Southern Hemisphere’s semi-arid regions, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/new-ipcc-climate-report-projects-significant-threats-to-australia-20140323-35b1r.html">including Australia</a>.</p>
<p>That’s a vital trend to consider, because it could lead to a more vulnerable global carbon reservoir.</p>
<p>While we might see more carbon stored in new vegetation growth and soil when extra water is available in semi-arid regions, as happened in 2010-2011, the risk is that more fires and droughts would end up rapidly releasing that carbon back to the atmosphere.</p>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>It is likely that the large carbon uptake during 2011 was short-lived, as suggested by a rapid decline of the sink strength in 2012. Future research will be able to confirm if this was the case.</p>
<p>Arid and semi-arid regions currently occupy 40% of the world’s land area. More work is urgently needed to research the best ways to manage these areas, and whether we can increase their <a href="https://theconversation.com/taking-stock-of-the-opportunities-and-risks-with-landscape-carbon-25664">soil and vegetation carbon stores</a> as part of our climate mitigation efforts.</p>
<p>While <a href="https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-protecting-global-rainforests-the-best-way-to-rapidly-tackle-climate-change-17656">tropical forests like the Amazon remain vitally important as major carbon sinks</a>, this new study and others indicate that semi-arid regions like Australia will also play a growing role in the Earth’s carbon cycle.</p>
<p>Increasingly, semi-arid regions are driving variability in how much carbon dioxide remains in the Earth’s atmosphere each year. And that has major implications for the long-term, including whether future climate change will slow down or accelerate further.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/26646/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Pep Canadell receives funding from CSIRO and the Department of the Environment. This article is based on a new paper that he was a co-author of: Poulter, B, D Frank, P Ciais, R Myneni, N Andela, J Bi, G Broquet, JG Canadell, F Chevallier, YY Liu, SW Running, S Sitch and GR van der Werf. 2014. The contribution of semi-arid ecosystems to interannual global carbon cycle variability, Nature. Canadell's contribution was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program.
</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ben Poulter received funding to undertake this study from GEOCARBON (283080), a research project funded by the European Union Framework Program 7.</span></em></p>Record-breaking rains triggered so much new growth across Australia that the continent turned into a giant green carbon sink to rival tropical rainforests including the Amazon, our new research shows…Pep Canadell, Execuive director, Global Carbon Project, CSIROBen Poulter, Head of the Ecosystem Dynamics Lab, Montana State UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/129402013-03-20T19:51:10Z2013-03-20T19:51:10ZThree major floods, four reviews, but still lessons to learn<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/21471/original/ntd7bxns-1363747795.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia is hanging on to flood mitigation measures that other countries have left behind.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Pamela Blackburn</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The last few years provided plenty of data to help us reform our approach to floods. With devastating flooding in Queensland and Victoria in 2011 and 2013, we should have learned a great deal about which approaches to flood mitigation work and which are less effective. A <a href="http://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/living-floods-key-lessons-australia-and-abroad">review of four recent Australian studies</a> of mitigation and adaptation, and a comparison to overseas recommendations, shows we are lagging behind international practises in a number of important areas.</p>
<h2>The Australian approach</h2>
<p>We looked at four recent reviews of flood mitigation and adaptation in Australia: the <a href="http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/">Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry</a>, Brisbane City Council’s <a href="http://www.brisbane.qld.gov.au/community/community-safety/disasters-and-emergencies/types-of-disasters/flooding/flood-policy-plans-and-projects/flood-response-review/index.htm">Flood Response Review</a>, the Victorian Parliament’s <a href="http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/enrc/inquiries/inquiry/295">Inquiry into Flood Mitigation Infrastructure in Victoria</a> and the <a href="http://www.floodsreview.vic.gov.au/about-the-review/terms-of-reference.html">Victorian Floods Review</a>.</p>
<p>These reviews varied greatly in scope, and all produced a comprehensive list of considered and much-needed recommendations to improve Australia’s resilience to floods in the future. But one surprising fact was none of them dealt with <em>future</em> climate impacts. Some didn’t even mention climate change. Government reviews are expensive, but the cost is justified if they identify reforms which improve society. By not taking into account the risk of future climate change and its exacerbation of flood risk, governments are missing an opportunity to include those risks in the current reform agenda. </p>
<p>Australian governments take the attitude that we can re-make flooded communities exactly as they were before. As soon as a disaster is declared, federal funds are made available to rebuild to “pre-disaster” conditions. There is little or no expectation that infrastructure should be made more resistant to flood damage. In the United States 15% of federal funding is allocated for “betterment”; here there are virtually no resources to plan for, relocate or strengthen flood prone infrastructure to make it more resilient.</p>
<p>The Australian approach to “flood proofing” communities is to build levees. Levees essentially take the same body of water and squeeze it into a smaller space. They don’t encourage evaporation, and they push water to higher levels. They work well in small floods, and under those conditions are very effective at protecting communities. But in recent years we’ve seen bigger floods, and these are likely to get worse. In bigger floods the levees are often overcome, and the potential for serious damage becomes much greater than it would be without them. </p>
<p>“Non-structural” or “ecosystem” approaches to flood mitigation work much better than structural measures like levees. But in Australia, we rarely consider these types of measures.</p>
<h2>International ideas</h2>
<p>Internationally, the story is very different. </p>
<p>In our research we also looked at flood reforms in the USA, China and the Netherlands. In all three, climate change was a driving force behind their significant recommended reforms. </p>
<p>All of these countries recognise they have reached the limit of what levee banks can usefully achieve. Instead, they have instigated a range of reforms built around the concept of ecosystem management.</p>
<p>The first of these is “making room for the river”. The river channel is widened or deepened to allow more water to flow through while remaining within its bounds. Flooding of surrounding areas is reduced.</p>
<p>Since its devastating floods in the 1990s, China has been restoring flood plains, buying land around river channels and relocating people to higher ground. This has happened most famously as part of the Three Gorges Dam development, which attracted a lot of negative media coverage. But we’re finding that years after relocation, people have shifted to crops that are less prone to flood damage which, combined with being on higher ground, means they’re hit by floods less often, and they’re better prepared to deal with those that come along.</p>
<p>All three countries have changed the way they manage their floodways. Where cities and towns are vulnerable, the government diverts the river into agricultural land around the town. In a flood season the city is protected and agricultural areas are flooded instead. The farming communities are paid by the government to forgo income during floods, but still use the land at all other times. Australian research has shown that <a href="https://theconversation.com/more-flooding-in-the-murray-darling-basin-could-be-good-news-for-farmers-10321">for graziers</a>, more frequent flooding can actually improve farm incomes.</p>
<h2>What could Australia learn?</h2>
<p>Australia has dabbled in ecosystem approaches and relocation, but often in an ad-hoc way.</p>
<p>Critics of ecosystem approaches point out that it’s all very well to deepen a river upstream, but if you don’t deal with the towns downstream, flooding there will be much worse. For ecosystem approaches to work, management and planning have to be undertaken on a much larger scale.</p>
<p>In the southern Murray-Darling Basin, the government proposes removing constraints such as bridges and dams to allow for bigger peak environmental flows (that is, floods). This work is very promising, but what about the rest of the Murray-Darling Basin and, indeed, the rest of the country?</p>
<p>Currently, we don’t have coordination and integration across jurisdictions within and between states. But rivers don’t respect administrative boundaries: when you’re developing ecosystem approaches, you have to use the natural environment as your point of reference.</p>
<p>There have also been a few examples of relocating communities: <a href="https://theconversation.com/moving-grantham-relocating-flood-prone-towns-is-nothing-new-4878">Grantham and Gundagai</a> being the most notable. This relocation is expensive, but as floods become bigger and more frequent it’s something Australia needs to do more often. The financial and social costs of retaining and rebuilding flood prone towns over and over and over again will soon add up. When the taxpayer is picking up the bill, at some point you must decide whether rebuilding is an economically viable solution, or whether in some situations relocation is the more sensible approach.</p>
<p>And of course we must take account of future climate risks. While none of these reviews seriously studied those risks, change is happening elsewhere. The <a href="http://www.ncwe.org.au/arr/index.html">Australian Rainfall and Runoff Guide</a> is one of the most important national reference guides, and is used by planners and builders to help them allow for floods. It’s currently under review, and future versions will take account of the effects of both natural and anthropogenic climate change. This attitude should spread to all flood reform.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/12940/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Karen Hussey receives funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jamie Pittock receives funding from the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility.</span></em></p>The last few years provided plenty of data to help us reform our approach to floods. With devastating flooding in Queensland and Victoria in 2011 and 2013, we should have learned a great deal about which…Karen Hussey, Senior Lecturer, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National UniversityJamie Pittock, Director, International Programs, UNESCO Chair in Water Economics and Transboundary Water Governance, Australian National UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/118292013-01-29T01:00:13Z2013-01-29T01:00:13ZWhy are so many Queenslanders still without flood insurance?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19660/original/9jcrhyf8-1359418532.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=42%2C59%2C5629%2C3442&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Cost was one of the reasons why Queenslanders remained uninsured for flood damage but there were other surprising factors.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Queensland towns and suburbs have been hit by floods again. Flooding is not a rare event here and most residents are not surprised by the recurrence of floods.</p>
<p>But the memory of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/councils-should-cop-some-blame-for-qld-flood-insurance-woes-659">2011 floods</a> is still fresh. Inevitably some homes will be damaged by the floodwaters. Some enduring problems regarding flood insurance threaten to explode as homeowners come back to clean up the mess.</p>
<p>When it comes to property damage, some of these affected households will eventually find that insurance companies are not going to recover their economic losses. Some are not even offered flood cover, whereas some policyholders elected to opt-out. Non-insurance or under-insurance remains an issue.</p>
<p>Why are they left uninsured? Because of their location, risk awareness, or economic reasons? Or ultimately all come down to some kind of policy failures?</p>
<p>After the 2011 Queensland floods, the Federal Government looked into the issue and commissioned the <a href="http://www.ndir.gov.au/content/Content.aspx?doc=review.htm">Natural Disaster Insurance Review</a> (NDIR). They have identified a range of supply-side problems to fix. Some of these pertain to the practice of the insurance industry, and some entail legislative efforts.</p>
<p>Quite reasonably, the Review does not recommend mandatory purchase of insurance. Thus, on the demand side, households are left to exercise their freedom of choice. It is up to them if they elect to bear the risks.</p>
<p>But some households really never sign up to a flood insurance package, even if it is available at affordable costs, and even if they knowingly stay in a flood-prone site.</p>
<p>Isn’t it true that people would opt to get insured if they know they are at risk and can afford it? This is our standard assumption – people say no (or under-insure) if they think the floods <a href="https://theconversation.com/bushfire-losses-reignite-debate-about-insurance-reform-11512">won’t affect them</a> or the insurance premiums too expensive, and vice versa. The NDIR and the industry share this view.</p>
<p>This is only part of the picture. Research shows that non-insurance is related to factors other than perceived risk and affordability.</p>
<p>In a research project funded by Griffith University, about 500 residents of South East Queensland, including Brisbane, were telephone-interviewed in 2012. They were asked if they have flood cover on current policies. More than 40% of respondents did not have it, or did not have home insurance at all.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=393&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19661/original/kjqbmxq8-1359418667.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=494&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">People whose homes are at a high risk of flooding tend to have insurance - but research suggests there is a not a strong positive relationship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>True, those respondents who know their homes are at high risk of flooding are more likely to have flood cover on current policies. Also, those who had experienced property damage in the 2011 severe flooding event tend to have such cover. However, this is not a strong positive relationship. Statistically, it is not conclusive to suggest that perceived risk and damage experience explain the tendency for non-insurance.</p>
<p>Likewise, those who have higher incomes and find flood insurance affordable to them tend to insure. But no strong statistical relationship is observed. Household income and affordability are not a good explanation either. The standard assumption does not always hold.</p>
<p>What is the motive then?</p>
<p>Social influences. The findings suggest that if the respondents believe that their family or friends would want them to insure, they tend to do so. Also if they believe that other people like them would buy flood cover, they tend to follow suit. The decision is predominantly socially motivated.</p>
<p>Interestingly, such social factors are precisely what the <a href="http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/inquiry/climate-change-adaptation/draft">Productivity Commission</a> has identified but recommended not to deal with through government policy.</p>
<p>Certainly there is something the market cannot do, for which the government should at least facilitate. Although it might not be appropriate for them to mobilise social influence directly, they should try to make sure the community has the capacity to spread the message. There is no excuse for the government to avoid addressing behavioural drivers. Governments have been using all sort of measures to encourage good behaviours and punish the bad ones.</p>
<p>Local community organisations may help increase the voluntary adoption of flood insurance through word-of-mouth. Governments and the industry should support (financially) their efforts and harness the social forces they help to create.</p>
<p><em>(*Findings will be reported in an article due to publish in the March edition of Area journal.)</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11829/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alex Lo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Queensland towns and suburbs have been hit by floods again. Flooding is not a rare event here and most residents are not surprised by the recurrence of floods. But the memory of the 2011 floods is still…Alex Lo, Lecturer, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/116262013-01-16T19:52:35Z2013-01-16T19:52:35ZSpread the word: the value of local information in disaster response<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19278/original/h9h37nxk-1358313428.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">In many cases, first-hand accounts from citizens can be as valuable as reports from official sources.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Tony McDonough.</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>As dozens of bushfires continue to burn across the country (not least <a href="http://www.rfs.nsw.gov.au/dsp_content.cfm?cat_id=683">in New South Wales</a>) many Australians find themselves <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-15/crews-make-progress-on-fire-in-north-west-nsw/44648120">unable to return home</a> while many others have <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-14/homes-destroyed-in-nsw-bushfire/4463136">no home to return to</a>.</p>
<p>While we all rely on the media for information about imminent threats, it’s at the local level that some of the most valuable information-gathering is being done.</p>
<p>Local communities, and especially those who are at “the first mile”, are the first responders in the case of a bushfire: the people that take immediate action when danger is imminent and that provide crucial information as the event unfolds.</p>
<p>Accessing, managing, and sharing this ground level information is indispensable in all phases of the emergency management cycle.</p>
<h2>Disaster management technology</h2>
<p>Increasingly, emergency authorities everywhere are providing warnings and updates about incidents via <a href="http://cfa.vic.gov.au/">official web sites</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/QldFireandRescueService">social media</a> accounts, and text messages.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=482&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19272/original/bjxcsjdy-1358312239.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=606&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A recent warning message on Facebook from the Queensland Fire and Rescue Service.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">QFRS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But in emergency situations, heavy usage of communication networks may cause traffic disruptions, severely compromising the delivery of updated information.</p>
<p>One such disruption occurred on Friday January 4 when Victoria’s Country Fire Authority (CFA) <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/">website</a> and <a href="http://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/fireready-app/">mobile app</a> crashed under heavy strain. (Fire Services Commissioner Craig Lapsley told Fairfax that the CFA site received more than <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/cfa-website-cant-handle-the-heat-20130105-2ca9f.html">12 million hits in 12 hours</a>.)</p>
<p>Such disruptions highlight technical glitches under huge volumes of traffic. They also highlight the fact that we often wrongly assume credible information only travels in one direction: from authorities to citizenry.</p>
<p>In the era of ubiquitous social media, linked open data, and kaleidoscopic conversations, where is the Plan B?</p>
<p>If, as Ross Bradstock <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worst-fire-season-ever-until-next-year-3452">suggested on The Conversation</a>, fire events “could also increase in environments where human exposure is greatest and most vulnerable,” locals will need to rely on locals as well.</p>
<p>The question then becomes: “Which tools are most appropriate to reinforce local networks (or to help build new ones) so local residents can improve their own preparedness and recovery?”</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=483&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19270/original/6ct8k95r-1358311809.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=607&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A screenshot from the NSW Rural Fire Service “Current Fires and Incidents” page.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">RFS</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A team effort</h2>
<p>First responders can make a granular assessment of needs, resources to be pooled, and provide assistance to the most vulnerable or isolated people in the area.</p>
<p>Current approaches, therefore, often involve a mix of technologies (such as SMS, mobile apps and so on) and collaboration between humanitarian actors, emergency response agencies, corporations, and citizens.</p>
<p>When the end game is to save lives, collaboration is key to an effective and efficient response and can forge relationships that can continue post-response.</p>
<p>A good example is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%932011_Queensland_floods">2010–11 Queensland floods</a>. This emergency response saw a collaboration between <a href="http://esriaustralia.com.au/">Esri Australia</a>, the <a href="https://www.fire.qld.gov.au/">Queensland Fire and Rescue Service (QFRS)</a>, and citizen volunteers to develop technology that visualised, in real-time, vital information such as flood peaks, damaged property, and road closures.</p>
<p>In addition, information from social media feeds – crowdsourced tweets, Flickr photos and YouTube videos – were geolocated on the map, providing responders with another level of insight to what was happening on the ground. </p>
<p>Brisbane was under water for four days at the height of the floods. During this time the flood map received more than 3 million hits.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=325&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19267/original/3crgs4zd-1358311558.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=408&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A map of Brisbane with flood-affected areas overlaid. Click for larger view.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brisbane City Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The technology used for the Brisbane floods (which was developed into the <a href="http://www.esri.com/news/arcwatch/0311/graphics/power-of-vgi5-lg.jpg">Total Operational Mapping (TOM)</a> system – the solution operated with QFRS to visualise emergency data across the state), has also been used to help South Australia’s <a href="http://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/site/home.jsp">Country Fire Service (CFS)</a> volunteers and to develop bushfire prediction technology used by Western Australian emergency responders.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://firewatch.landgate.wa.gov.au/">fire prediction tool</a>, developed by the University of Western Australia, predicts the path of a fire based on data such as vegetation type and condition, weather forecasts, and topography. The results are then used by emergency services to help inform preparedness activities. The data are also accessible to the public via an early-warning website.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=369&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/19268/original/vxmk4xdg-1358311637.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=463&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Click for larger view.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Brisbane City Council</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Lessons from Sandy</h2>
<p>In New York, Hurricane Sandy also fuelled a crowdsourced, people-centered approach to emergency management and recovery.</p>
<p>The #OccupySandy movement, relying on the experience gathered in the days of <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/occupywallstreet">Occupy Wall Street</a>, established distribution hubs, transportation, first aid and medical supplies.</p>
<p>Participants in #OccupySandy also partnered with other organisations and platforms such as <a href="http://sahanafoundation.org/sahanas-sandy-relief/">Sahana</a> (to manage requests and the dispatch of items, meals, volunteers and so on) and <a href="https://redhook.recovers.org/">Recovers</a> (a site allowing people to offer/request assistance).</p>
<p>It might well be too early to assess the long-term impact and effectiveness of these crowdsourced, “horizontally distributed” initiatives. But such technologies will continue to empower citizens and local communities in building peer-to-peer disaster management networks that can come to the rescue when public agencies and large organisations are overwhelmed.</p>
<p><br></p>
<p><em>This article was co-authored with <a href="http://esriaustralia.com.au/events-our-speakers/keera-pullman-ssd-109">Keera Pullman</a>, Consultant – Professional Services at Esri Australia.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/11626/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Marta Poblet does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>As dozens of bushfires continue to burn across the country (not least in New South Wales) many Australians find themselves unable to return home while many others have no home to return to. While we all…Marta Poblet, Director of the Institute of Law and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de BarcelonaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/103372012-10-25T19:32:44Z2012-10-25T19:32:44ZBlame game the enemy of good policy when disaster strikes<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/16900/original/2j9yg8t7-1351144233.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The earthquake at l'Aquila was a tragedy, but blaming experts and governments doesn't help.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Grillo</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The decision of an Italian Court to convict six scientists and one government official of manslaughter for the failure to predict the magnitude of a devastating earthquake in L’Aquila in central Italy in 2009 should have alarm bells ringing for all those involved in disaster management. This does not just mean scientists, it includes policy makers and practitioners at all levels of government and those who provide scientific, engineering and technical advice to them.</p>
<p>As a former Director-General of the Queensland Department of Community Safety, I can say the planning and preparation for disaster events is heavily dependent on the formal and informal advice from these experts. During the 2010-11 flooding and cyclones, the State Disaster Management Group and indeed cabinet were regularly briefed by experts from the Bureau of Meteorology and hydrologists in order to assist planning and response activities.</p>
<p>Natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, flash flooding and tsunamis are usually unpredicted and unpredictable, particularly if there is some community expectation that there can be some precise identification of the location, timing and magnitude of each event. This level of specificity is scientifically impossible.</p>
<p>To hold engineers accountable in this way is akin to blaming the weather bureau for the storm or drought. Perhaps worse, it reflects a societal trend where someone or some agency must be to blame if loss of life or property, economic and environmental damage ensues.</p>
<p>The identification of four dam operators for possible criminal sanctions by the <a href="http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0007/11698/QFCI-Final-Report-March-2012.pdf">Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry</a> reflects this trend involving the need to find “someone to blame”. Fortunately the Crime and Misconduct Commission has determined that there is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3572761.htm">insufficient evidence</a> for any prosecution. But the impact on those individuals is ongoing; their personal and professional reputations have been significantly damaged.</p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/16902/original/7cppby7p-1351146266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/16902/original/7cppby7p-1351146266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16902/original/7cppby7p-1351146266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16902/original/7cppby7p-1351146266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=398&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16902/original/7cppby7p-1351146266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16902/original/7cppby7p-1351146266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/16902/original/7cppby7p-1351146266.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">The Queensland floods and cyclones of 2010-11 cost the state $7.5 billion.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Raymond Keyworth</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Clearly there are some disasters such as oil spills or biosecurity breaches where this litigious approach can be appropriate. But to apply the “blame culture” to natural disasters will have profound implications for disaster management where the focus must be on understanding the risks and preparing for and mitigating those risks. That is a shared responsibility for governments, business, the community and individuals.</p>
<p>If the Italian experience is replicated here or even if it creates some level of unease in the scientific community which discourages their involvement, the preparation and planning for future natural disasters will be compromised with potentially more adverse consequences for the community.</p>
<p>Rather than focus on blame, we need a public debate on improving our disaster management policy and practice. There is a serious gap in disaster management policy in Australia. What is needed is integrated frameworks focused on all hazards and building resilience. This involves developing effective, practical strategies to limit the impact of disasters. There must be effective integration of policy and programs across the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery phases of disaster management. Each phase should provide feedback loops to improve performance, policy development and resourcing priorities.</p>
<p>The allocation of resources through the <a href="http://www.em.gov.au/Documents/NDRRA%20-%20Determination%202011%20-%20Version%201%20(PDF)%20-%20Web%20update.pdf">Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements</a> (NDRRA) has grown exponentially in response to disasters from about $40 million in 2003-04 to about $1.9 billion in 2010-11. The estimated costs of the 2010-11 flooding and cyclones are estimated to be in excess of $7.5 billion.</p>
<p>But both the commitment to and investment in prevention and mitigation have been miserly in comparison. The policy imbalance is staggering when one considers that in the year in which $7.5 billion was the estimated cost of natural disasters, Queensland’s allocation of NDRP funds for disaster mitigation was about $9 million.</p>
<p>The challenge to our national, state and territory leaders is to support the aspiration of building resilience through policy changes and resourcing priorities. Local communities and individuals need assistance to reduce their exposure to natural disasters by investment in mitigation and adaptation initiatives.</p>
<p>The imperative for all those involved in emergency and disaster management - agencies at all levels of government, businesses, individuals and communities is to move beyond the traditional emphasis on response and recovery towards building resilience. </p>
<p>In times of budgetary restraint, it is easy to see why governments may be reluctant to spend money in advance to prepare against “known unknowns”, but this is exactly what is needed to turn around the imbalance between funds given after a disasters and money spent before such disasters occur. As with so many of the issues that face Australian governance, is time for a full and frank public debate.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/10337/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jim McGowan was Director-General of the Queensland Community Safety from 2007-2011.</span></em></p>The decision of an Italian Court to convict six scientists and one government official of manslaughter for the failure to predict the magnitude of a devastating earthquake in L’Aquila in central Italy…Jim McGowan, Adjunct Professor, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/48782012-01-10T01:02:57Z2012-01-10T01:02:57ZMoving Grantham? Relocating flood-prone towns is nothing new<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6845/original/2vdw423n-1326160074.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A memorial has been unveiled in flood-devastated Grantham as residents move to higher ground.</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Today marks a year since flooding devastated south-east Queensland. <a href="http://www.riskfrontiers.com/pdf/water-03-01149.pdf">Research</a> has shown that some of the worst effects of the floods were due to poor land-use planning. </p>
<p>Since the floods, residents of the Lockyer Valley, where flash flooding was worst, have been given the opportunity to relocate to higher ground outside of the flood zone. Australia has a rich history of relocating flood-prone towns, so indications are strong that this move could avert future tragedies.</p>
<p>The Queensland floods of 2011 were caused by one of the strongest La Niña events since records began (late 19th century) and a negative Indian Ocean dipole event (Coates et al, in review). During the widespread flooding there were two major events. On <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/grantham-strewn-with-evidence-of-terror-after-flooding/story-e6frfku0-1225990864320">10 January</a> there was a flash flood in the city of Toowoomba and the Lockyer Valley. On <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-01-11/brisbane-flood-peak-to-break-1974-levels/1901550">11 and 12 January</a> the cities of Brisbane and Ipswich and surrounding areas were flooded by the Brisbane River. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6810/original/w4r7zyjv-1326074732.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6810/original/w4r7zyjv-1326074732.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6810/original/w4r7zyjv-1326074732.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6810/original/w4r7zyjv-1326074732.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6810/original/w4r7zyjv-1326074732.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6810/original/w4r7zyjv-1326074732.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6810/original/w4r7zyjv-1326074732.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">When a town is on a floodplain, it can make sense to move it.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In the Lockyer Valley flash flood, an 8m-high wall of water hit the valley. The magnitude of this event was exacerbated by the way the series of storms, with falls of 40-50mm in 30 minutes, moved over the already saturated catchment. </p>
<p>The flash flood was described as an “inland tsunami”. Twenty-one people died in the Lockyer Valley: fourteen in Grantham, two in Murphys Creek, two in Postmans Ridge, two in Spring Bluff and one in Helidon. Nearly every house in the floodplain area of Grantham sustained structural damage: 29 houses were completely destroyed and 130 severely damaged. </p>
<p>As part of a voluntary land-swap initiative, Lockyer Valley Regional Council is now giving flood-impacted residents the option to move to a new land parcel located adjacent to Grantham but outside the flood zone. At the time of writing the first residents are moving into their new homes and 70 to 80% of residents are expected to eventually relocate. </p>
<figure class="align-left ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6808/original/ysd73cg8-1326073979.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6808/original/ysd73cg8-1326073979.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6808/original/ysd73cg8-1326073979.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6808/original/ysd73cg8-1326073979.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6808/original/ysd73cg8-1326073979.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6808/original/ysd73cg8-1326073979.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6808/original/ysd73cg8-1326073979.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A Grantham resident stands where his home once was before it was carried away in the flood.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While this is the first time a local government authority has assisted a disaster-struck community this way, it’s certainly not the first time an Australian town has been shifted to higher ground to avoid floods. </p>
<p>In 1810, Governor Macquarie proclaimed five new towns on high ground along the Hawkesbury and Nepean Rivers to give new settlers flood-free residences. However, Macquarie found the Hawkesbury settlers most reluctant to comply with his intentions, as he reported to Earl Bathurst on 4th April, 1817: </p>
<p>“… it is impossible not to feel extremely displeased and Indignant at their Infatuated Obstinacy in persisting to Continue to reside with their Families, Flocks, Herds, and Grain on those Spots Subject to the Floods, and from whence they have often had their prosperity swept away… and what makes their Obstinacy and Indolence in this respect still more Inexcusable is, that None of them would have to Carry their Crops above two Miles at the furthest, and in general not more than one Mile to their respective Places of Residence in the Townships… they are deaf to All my Remonstrances, and I fear they never will be prevailed on to remove from their favourite Spots and miserable Cottages on the Banks of these Rivers. </p>
<p>"As a last Effort, however, I Consider the recent awful Visitation of the Floods in February a fit Season for once more admonishing them, whilst Smarting under their late Losses and Calamities… but I shall at least have the Consolation to reflect that I have done My Utmost to save these deluded people from Ruin and Poverty.”</p>
<p>Most phases of settlement and exploration in Australia were <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/routledg/cage/1999/00000030/00000003/art00008">beset with flood problems</a>. And there are several instances where townships have been relocated. Delving into Risk Frontiers’ <a href="http://www.riskfrontiers.com/perilaus.htm">PerilAus Floods</a> database provided several case studies.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6809/original/qvnzxn65-1326074537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/6809/original/qvnzxn65-1326074537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6809/original/qvnzxn65-1326074537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6809/original/qvnzxn65-1326074537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=419&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6809/original/qvnzxn65-1326074537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6809/original/qvnzxn65-1326074537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/6809/original/qvnzxn65-1326074537.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=526&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A clean-up raises the question: would it be better to move?</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>On around 14 May 1851, a severe flood at Warragabra stations (Twofold Bay) and <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Bega,+New+South+Wales,+Australia&hl=en&ll=-36.675028,149.843903&spn=0.599729,0.923538&sll=-37.813187,144.96298&sspn=0.147685,0.230885&vpsrc=6&hnear=Bega+New+South+Wales,+Australia&t=m&z=11">Bega</a>, NSW caused extensive damage to crops and property and killed 17 people. An estimated 6-9m of water covered the town site, with a maximum flood height of probably 9.7m on the <a href="http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/drr/southcoast.shtml">Bega North Bye gauge</a>. After this and minor floods the following year, Bega was moved to its present location, on higher ground.</p>
<p>The township of <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Gundagai,+New+South+Wales,+Australia&hl=en&ll=-35.065973,148.109436&spn=2.448069,3.694153&sll=-36.675028,149.843903&sspn=0.599729,0.923538&vpsrc=6&hnear=Gundagai+New+South+Wales,+Australia&t=m&z=9">Gundagai</a>, NSW, was relocated from between two rivers to higher ground after 89 of its population of 250 drowned in the floods of June 1852 when the Murrumbidgee river overflowed. This was the worst flood event in Australian history in terms of lives lost, and had an estimated recurrence interval of 1:100.</p>
<p>Torrential rain from a tropical cyclone led to Queensland’s worst flood in terms of lives lost. <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Clermont,+Queensland,+Australia&hl=en&ll=-22.82682,147.639771&spn=5.511903,7.388306&sll=-16.794024,145.721283&sspn=0.715862,0.923538&vpsrc=6&hnear=Clermont+Queensland,+Australia&t=m&z=8">Clermont</a> was a 19th century gold mining town established between a lagoon and Sandy Creek in central Queensland. It was relocated after a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3353663.htm">disastrous flash flood</a> on 28 December 1916 in which at least 64 people drowned and over 50 buildings and the railway line were swept away. </p>
<p>Floodwaters broke the banks of Wolfgang and Sandy creeks and “a wall of water ~4.5m high” came through the main street with no warning. Communications were disrupted and the rest of Australia did not know what had happened for some days. The lower part of town, on the land between the lagoon and Sandy Creek, was washed away and never rebuilt. Many of the surviving major buildings were put on log rollers and winched along by a steam tractor engine to a new higher site south of the lagoon, an exercise that took approximately three months.</p>
<p>Relocating a town is never an easy undertaking. As Governor Macquarie discovered, the threat of future floods may not be enough to convince people to leave behind a familiar way of life. But with the innovative assistance the Lockyer Valley Council is providing, a relocated Grantham may have a bright future.</p>
<p><strong>References</strong></p>
<p>Coates, L; Haynes, K; Gissing, A; Radford, D, (in review), The Australian experience and the Queensland floods of 2010–2011. In The Handbook of Drowning: Prevention, Rescue, Treatment, 2nd ed.; Bierens, JJLM, Ed.; Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg New York</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/4878/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lucinda Coates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Today marks a year since flooding devastated south-east Queensland. Research has shown that some of the worst effects of the floods were due to poor land-use planning. Since the floods, residents of the…Lucinda Coates, Risk Scientist, Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/41442012-01-04T19:49:18Z2012-01-04T19:49:18ZDo you know your neighbour? Lending a hand and the Queensland floods<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/5216/original/queensland_floods.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australians willingly helped their neighbours when it was needed during the Queensland floods of 2011.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Flickr/RaeAllen</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Neighbours are a source of growing aggravation in Australia and we are lodging more official complaints about each other than ever before. Excessive noise or odour, inadequate levels of property maintenance, roaming animals and general forms of anti-social behaviour are all potentially cause for complaint.</p>
<p>Yet the overwhelming message that flowed from events like the <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/floods">floods</a> in Queensland and Victoria last year was one of neighbours, friends and even strangers rallying to assist flooded residents in their hour of need.</p>
<p>As the waters rose, neighbours banded together to sandbag each others’ homes and move possessions to higher ground. Once they receded, information, food, homes and equipment were freely shared. Observers lauded the spirit of community that prevailed. </p>
<p>So, why are neighbours still there when needed even if their noise, smells and habits are cause for complaint the rest of the time? </p>
<h2>Poor planning</h2>
<p>The rise in neighbourly tensions has been attributed to poor council planning laws which create increasingly dense living areas. Otherwise blame has been put on the breakdown of society, which has reduced familiar neighbours to intolerant and inconsiderate strangers.</p>
<p>It is true that neighbourhoods are changing and that good urban planning can help reduce potential conflict. Yet there is no evidence so far that suggests complaints are more likely to arise in high density or transition suburbs than any other. </p>
<p>Nor can we say that the close-knit ties we once enjoyed have been uniformly lost. Many people still have frequent and positive contact with neighbours. </p>
<p>There are therefore two ways we can explain this contradiction. The first relates to the tension between neighbourliness and privacy, the second to conflict and civility. </p>
<h2>Finding a balance</h2>
<p>Research shows that neighbourly support and interaction were particularly high in older working class suburbs. But so too were conflict and gossip. Everyone knew everyone else’s business.</p>
<p>Today, we are more protective of our privacy and expectations of neighbourly conduct have changed. “Good” neighbours are friendly but not too friendly, they keep a respectful distance but are there when needed.</p>
<p>This is a precarious balance based on an unspoken moral code. This makes breaches nearly impossible to avoid.</p>
<p>It also means we are less likely than ever to know our neighbours.</p>
<h2>Avoiding confrontation</h2>
<p>Social distance does not solve the issue of physical proximity. Neighbours may not know each others’ names but they learn a lot about each other nevertheless, some of it quite intimate.</p>
<p>This proximity requires careful management to prevent private lives encroaching upon others’ domestic spaces and causing offence. </p>
<p>It may be that neighbourly conflicts have not increased, simply that problem neighbours are now dealt with through formal channels rather than over-the-fence conversations. Low levels of social contact, coupled with the desire to maintain friendly distance and avoid conflict, renders people reluctant to confront offenders.</p>
<p>As a start, they may try to ignore the problem. But complaints to a third party offer a final resort, allowing complainants to remain anonymous and uninvolved. </p>
<h2>A costly habit</h2>
<p>The problem for councils, however, is that significant resources are expended in investigating petty disputes. Anonymous complaints also create an environment of suspicion among neighbours. </p>
<p>There is a possibility that the wave of goodwill exhibited during the floods will minimise neighbourly conflicts, or at least reduce registered complaints. But it may also create new sets of expectations about neighbours and new forms of conflict if these normative codes are breached. Time will tell.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/4144/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lynda Cheshire receives funding from The Australian Research Council (ARC Future Fellowship)
She is affiliated with the School of Social Science at The University of Queensland</span></em></p>Neighbours are a source of growing aggravation in Australia and we are lodging more official complaints about each other than ever before. Excessive noise or odour, inadequate levels of property maintenance…Lynda Cheshire, ARC Future Fellow in Sociology, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.