tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/resources-curse-5879/articlesResources curse – The Conversation2017-08-27T09:55:21Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/828512017-08-27T09:55:21Z2017-08-27T09:55:21ZElection unlikely to herald the change Angolans have been clamouring for<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/183460/original/file-20170825-28527-g0bt4o.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">João Lourenço, set to become Angola's president, is unlikely to bring any major changes.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">EPA/Manuel de Almeida </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>On 23 August Angolans went to the polls to elect a new parliament, and for the first time in the lives of a great majority of the population, a new president. José Eduardo dos Santos, who ruled the country for 38 years, did not run this time as his party’s top candidate. </p>
<p>Instead, the MPLA, the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola) fielded Defence Minister, <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/who-is-angolas-next-president-joao-lourenco/a-40218458">João Lourenço</a>, as its presidential candidate. So the <em>mais velho</em> (old man) has <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/1505928.stm">finally</a> left. This in itself is a significant moment, considering how difficult it appears for <a href="https://qz.com/1059007/angola-election-jose-eduardo-dos-santos-will-step-down-as-angola-elects-its-first-new-leader-in-38-years/">some African leaders</a> to relinquish power. </p>
<p>Despite this, it’s likely that the elections will bring more of the same, and only slow and gradual improvements — if at all — of <a href="https://www.cmi.no/news/1671-angola-from-boom-to-bust-to-breaking-point">the lives of most Angolans</a>. Lourenço is very much a product of the system. He has the backing of the party and the armed forces, which is an improvement over dos Santos’ previous intended successor, (former) vice-president, <a href="https://www.africa-confidential.com/whos-who-profile/id/3227/page/3">Manuel Vicente</a>. </p>
<p>Vicente was pushed through against the party’s will as dos Santos’ running mate in the 2012 elections. He had no “liberation credentials”, and is <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-38996879">under investigation</a> for the corruption of a magistrate in Portugal. It would also appear that, for now, any plans for <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2013/07/dos-santos%c2%92-son-shapes-his-own-government/">dynastic succession</a> are off the table. </p>
<p>Some Angolan commentators have called Lourenço “dull”, and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172vgh8cd1mg4v%22">“not previously known for his intellectual capacities</a>. But, compared to <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2016/10/incompetence-and-corruption-sinks-angolas-development-bank/">some</a> of his MPLA comrades, he has a reputation of relative probity. Nevertheless he is unlikely to be willing – or able – to <a href="https://www.voaportugues.com/a/cabinda-padre-congo-duvida-que-eleicoes-tragam-mudancas/3996126.html">change</a> the current political economic dispensation.</p>
<h2>Corruption</h2>
<p>Lourenço campaigned under the motto ”<a href="http://www.angop.ao/angola/pt_pt/noticias/politica/2016/11/50/Melhorar-que-esta-bem-corrigir-que-esta-mal-novo-lema-estrategico-MPLA,62faa988-79c5-4357-9c58-2716650c8f23.html">improve what is good, correct what is bad</a>“ and vowed to tackle corruption. </p>
<p>Legal frameworks to combat corruption already exist, such as the 2010 <a href="http://www.angop.ao/angola/pt_pt/noticias/politica/2011/10/46/Lei-Probidade-Publica-vem-reforcar-mecanismos-combate-corrupcao,72965749-90f9-48c7-9eff-1a028c953b97.html">law on public probity</a> and anti-money laundering <a href="http://cdn2.portalangop.co.ao/angola/en_us/noticias/economia/2016/0/2/Angola-BNA-implements-measures-prevent-money-laundering,93c706db-6098-497d-87ea-fd84ae765db9.html">measures</a> in the banking sector. But despite repeated high-level declarations of a "zero tolerance” policy, dos Santos, his family and his close entourage remain the <a href="http://africanarguments.org/2017/08/14/angola-elections-ruling-family-dos-santos-worth-billions-what-happens-when-dad-steps-down/">prime beneficiaries</a> of the misappropriation of public funds. This tendency has become even more marked in the past three years, with the president’s family openly multiplying their private gains from publicly funded investments. The <a href="https://southernafrican.news/2016/11/18/isabel-dos-santos-defends-appointment-to-sonangol/">appointment</a> of dos Santos’ daughter, Isabel dos Santos, at the head of state oil company Sonangol is the most glaring example of this. </p>
<p>Such “eating of commissions” in all productive sectors of the economy would have to be tackled to address the profound <a href="http://africasacountry.com/2016/03/the-economic-crises-in-angola/">economic, political</a> and <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2016/05/16/angola-s-health-crisis-deepens-after-slump-in-oil-causes-budget-cuts/">social</a> crisis the country has faced since the fall of world oil prices in late 2014. </p>
<p>But it’s doubtful Lourenço will be able to institute such a change, especially as dos Santos has “locked in” by decree his latest appointments. These include the heads of the army and state security forces, as well as those of his children Isabel and José Filomeno ‘<a href="http://expresso.sapo.pt/internacional/2016-07-17-O-destino-de-Zenu">Zénú</a>’ dos Santos, at the helm of Sonangol and the Sovereign Wealth Fund. </p>
<p>Dos Santos has granted himself and his entourage <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2017/06/lifelong-immunity-from-prosecution-for-the-president/">lifelong immunity</a> from prosecution and remains president of the MPLA. This ensures that whoever succeeds him is likely to depend on him and his family economically, and is unlikely to go after the family’s ill-gotten gains.</p>
<h2>Election outcome</h2>
<p>Although election day was peaceful and orderly, there was reportedly widespread abstention (20%) and targeted voter disenfranchisement. Some voters turned up at polling stations only to hear they had been registered at a different place, often kilometres away. On 25 August the nominally independent National Electoral Commission <a href="http://www.dw.com/pt-002/cne-atualiza-resultados-mpla-vence-elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es-em-angola-com-617/a-40238976">announced “provisional” results</a> with the MPLA as the winner with 61% of the vote, down from 72% in 2012 and 81% in 2008. </p>
<p>Parallel counting from the voting stations, by contrast, shows opposition parties winning in many urban areas. This tallies with some pre-election opinion polls and the general public mood. In a truly open contest — which it <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03057070.2010.507572">was</a> <a href="https://www.makaangola.org/2017/08/a-teoria-da-fraude-eleitoral-em-angola/">not</a> — the MPLA would probably have lost Luanda and some provincial capitals, even if at national level it would likely still have come out on top. </p>
<p>The results are thus likely to be fiercely <a href="http://www.dw.com/pt-002/angola-t%C3%A9cnicos-da-oposi%C3%A7%C3%A3o-contestam-apuramento-da-cne/a-40232826">contested</a>, though given the politicisation of the judiciary and the electoral organs, the MPLA is likely to emerge as the winner in the end, albeit with a significantly reduced majority. </p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether the end of dos Santos’ rule will also mean turning the page on the <em><a href="http://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/?GCOI=80140100492980">Sistema dos Santos (System dos Santos)</a></em>, and a change in the ways in which the Angolan political economy works. For the MPLA, losing key urban districts, and probably in a free contest only just scraping past the 50% mark nationwide was something hitherto unthinkable, especially for the party’s old guard who still think the MPLA has a destiny to lead Angola for the coming 25 years. Perhaps this poor showing might prove a wake-up call and strengthen reformist tendencies within the party, and provide some incentive to start a constructive dialogue with the opposition.</p>
<p>But the regime has so far been remarkably resilient to crises. The <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03057070.2013.798541?src=recsys&journalCode=cjss20">political awakening</a> of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/angola-repression-generates-more-dissent-politics-mpla">growing number</a> of Angolans over the past years has <a href="https://www.voaportugues.com/a/abel-chivukuvuku-pica-candidato-mpla-novo-pedido-debate/3964756.html">strengthened</a> <a href="http://www.angonoticias.com/Artigos/item/55128/eleicoes-2017-samakuva-reitera-governo-inclusivo-e-participativo">opposition parties</a> in their <a href="http://www.africanews.com/2016/02/29/angola-opposition-kicks-against-management-of-yellow-fever-epidemic//">positions</a>, yet it will require continued <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2016/02/angola-15-activist-your-support-got-us-out-of-prison/">pressure</a> and <a href="http://www.dw.com/en/a-trial-in-angola-increasingly-seen-as-a-farce/a-19131740">activism</a>, and more than a change of the figurehead at the top, to fundamentally reorder Angola’s social, political, and economic relations — which is what Angolans are increasingly <a href="https://qz.com/538237/ordinary-angolans-are-asking-where-did-all-the-oil-riches-go/">clamouring</a> for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/82851/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Jon Schubert's current research is funded by the Swiss Network for International Studies (SNIS) as part of a project called "War and State Formation in Africa". His research in Angola has previously been funded by the Theodor-Engelmann-Stiftung, Basel; the Janggen-Pöhn-Stiftung, St. Gallen, the Heringa Stichting, Utrecht; the Bolsa Rui Tavares, Lisbon and Brussels; and the School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh. </span></em></p>Angola’s president-elect, João Lourenço, has a reputation for relative probity. But, he’s unlikely to rock the boat as Eduardo dos Santos remains party chairman.Jon Schubert, Senior research fellow: Civil War and State Formation, Global Studies Institute, Université de GenèveLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/531492016-01-14T13:01:51Z2016-01-14T13:01:51ZWhy the commodities crunch could hurt stability in Latin America<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/108169/original/image-20160114-2365-193adax.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">shutterstock.com</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Much of Latin America has seen an unusually long period of relative political stability since the early 2000s. With the exception of Cuba, democratically elected governments seem embedded throughout the region. The political rules of the game largely seem to be followed. Indeed, the international outcry following the 2009 coup <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8123126.stm">that removed Honduras’ president, Manuel Zelaya,</a> served to reinforce how much Latin American politics had changed since the 1970s, when military dictatorships were the dominant form of government.</p>
<p>It is no accident that political stability has been accompanied by an extended period of high prices for the natural resources that Latin American countries export. The region has benefited from a prolonged surge in demand for its commodities from China <a href="http://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/11471/103073087I_en.pdf?sequence=1">and other large emerging markets</a>. </p>
<p>This raises the question of whether this period of political stability, and commodity-led economic growth has changed Latin America fundamentally. Has political stability strengthened institutions and rule of law, for example? And has economic growth led to sustainable development and a reduction in the region’s traditionally <a href="http://www.nber.org/digest/jun15/w20915.html">exceptionally high levels of inequality</a>.</p>
<p>Certainly, commodity revenues have driven a drop in inequality. But it still remains high throughout the region. An important reason for this is that governments of all ideological persuasions have used windfall revenues to bolster welfare spending, particularly using <a href="http://ftp.iza.org/pp49.pdf">conditional cash transfer schemes</a>. These involve low-income families being given cash payments in return for meeting conditions such as sending their children to school or immunising them.</p>
<p>The commodity boom also coincided with a period of financial prudence. Both governments and – more importantly – <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp13259.pdf">international financial institutions</a>, learned from debt crises and hyperinflation in the 1980s and 1990s. This means that Latin America was able to weather the global financial crises relatively robustly. Even countries with economies closely aligned to the US, such as Mexico, suffered <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/16231470">only short-lived downturns</a>.</p>
<h2>Longstanding problems</h2>
<p>The region does continue to grapple with longstanding problems, however. Relatively free and fair democratic elections may now be widespread, but there is little evidence of the institutions that are <a href="http://www.isp.org.pl/uploads/filemanager/BuildingInstitutionsonWeakFoundationLessonsfromLatinAmericaLevitskyMurillo.pdf">fundamental to stable democratic systems</a>. </p>
<p>Stable political parties, for example, have been notably absent from much of Latin America. Instead, short-lived political movements are created <a href="http://www.idea.int/americas/pp.cfm">around individuals</a>. Moreover, judiciaries and police forces <a href="https://www.ciaonet.org/attachments/14366/uploads">remain inefficient and often corrupt</a>. Indeed, the rise of drug-related violence and organised crime in much of the region has exposed these challenges and meant that, despite economic growth, much of the region is more dangerous than <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/16/world/americas/latin-america-and-us-split-in-drug-fight.html?_r=0">in the past</a>.</p>
<p>High commodity prices and buoyant economic growth were able to mask some of these challenges. After several years of boom, commodity revenues fed through into increased construction and consumer spending, a widespread <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/colombias-economy-grows-4-3-on-construction-spending-1410886237">increase in living standards</a> and a <a href="https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2014/wp14124.pdf">decline in inequality</a>. In oil-producing countries – notably Venezuela – high prices fuelled heavy spending on social programmes that <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7694757.stm">guaranteed government support</a>.</p>
<p>This might suggest that Latin America has suffered from a classic case of <a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/resource-curse">resource curse</a> where a natural resource boom funds corrupt politicians and leads to profligate spending and irresponsible policy making. In many countries that suffer from the resource curse, enough natural resource wealth filters through to the wider population that the extent of politicians’ negligence is not clear – particularly as the international community <a href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/06497b24c44845eabb0b4bfba60d0398/celebration-perus-economic-boom-comes-late">frequently lauds apparent economic success stories</a>.</p>
<h2>Boom and bust</h2>
<p>The recent decline in commodity prices, however, is already beginning to expose issues of corruption and poor governance that have been simmering for a number of years. The Brazilian government, for example, has been badly undermined by a corruption scandal involving its state-controlled oil company <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/business/international/effects-of-petrobras-scandal-leave-brazilians-lamenting-a-lost-dream.html">Petrobras</a>. </p>
<p>In Venezuela, the collapse of oil revenues following the death of its charismatic former president, Hugo Chavez, has <a href="http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2015/01/maduro-admits-venezuela-economy-crisis-201512223852341922.html">exposed systematic government incompetence and abuse</a>. In Peru, allegations of corruption against the current government and its predecessors are undermining public confidence in politics in the run-up to presidential elections <a href="http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/206558/peru-set-for-presidential-vote-as-candidates-formall">later this year</a>. </p>
<p>Latin America has seen commodity booms in the past. Invariably <a href="http://www.voxeu.org/article/commodity-booms-bust-evidence-1900-2010">the collapse of commodity prices</a> has led to serious economic crisis, which has undone any gains achieved, thanks to the short-termism of governments. There is a significant risk of this happening again, potentially exposing the fragility of state institutions. </p>
<p>Given that much of the region’s population is now urban, a key to the region’s outlook will be whether the decline in commodity revenues affects consumer spending in cities. This has <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d3272242-57d5-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html#axzz3x8tc9ONB">already begun</a>. And if it continues, the drop in domestic demand would likely lead to significant economic slowdown. In turn, this would likely lead to a significant and widespread backlash against corruption – as was seen last year <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/14/honduras-guatemala-protests-government-corruption">in parts of Central America</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/53149/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Neil Pyper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There could be trouble ahead.Neil Pyper, Associate Head of School, Coventry UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/478142015-10-01T11:41:06Z2015-10-01T11:41:06ZCan newly oil-rich Guyana survive the resource curse – and a dispute with nosey neighbour Venezuela?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96797/original/image-20150930-5813-1qn3gq0.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Time for a party in Guyana ... but for how long?</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/amanderson/16028887643/">Mandy</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>We might have a new energy superpower to talk about. Guyana, the former British colony on the northern edge of South America, apparently controls vast amounts of offshore oil and gas. That, at least, is Exxon-Mobil’s view. In May 2015 the American major announced it had discovered huge potential reserves at its <a href="http://news.exxonmobil.com/press-release/exxonmobil-announces-significant-oil-discovery-offshore-guyana">Liza-1 well</a> in the Stabroek Block – some 120 nautical miles off the Guyanese coastline.</p>
<p>Exxon-Mobil claims <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-21/exxon-s-guyana-oil-find-may-be-worth-12-times-the-nation-s-gdp">700m barrels of oil might be recoverable</a> and, even despite depressed oil prices, analysts have spoken about the <a href="http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Hungry-Venezuela-Eyes-40-Billion-Offshore-Discovery-In-Guyana.html">Stabroek Block being worth US$40 billion</a>. With fewer than a million Guyanese citizens, such a windfall could go a long way. If shared evenly it would work out to around US$60,000 each – in a country where per capita income is currently <a href="http://data.worldbank.org/country/guyana">just US$4,170</a>.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96832/original/image-20150930-5819-13ojqop.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96832/original/image-20150930-5819-13ojqop.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96832/original/image-20150930-5819-13ojqop.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96832/original/image-20150930-5819-13ojqop.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96832/original/image-20150930-5819-13ojqop.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96832/original/image-20150930-5819-13ojqop.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96832/original/image-20150930-5819-13ojqop.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96832/original/image-20150930-5819-13ojqop.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Venezuela claims the shaded regions – and much of the sea off Guyana’s coast.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Guayana_Esequiba_(zonas).png">Kmusser</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>But sudden oil wealth is rarely distributed smoothly or equitably, and ordinary Guyanese worry their nation will become the latest victim of the <a href="http://www.nber.org/papers/w15836">resource curse</a>. Guyana also has a long-running border dispute with its larger, wealthier neighbour Venezuela. Not long after the oil discovery, Venezuelan president Nicholas Maduro <a href="http://www.stabroeknews.com/2015/news/stories/06/07/venezuela-makes-new-claim-to-guyanas-territorial-waters-potential-oil-block/">issued a decree</a> reiterating a historic claim over western Guyana and large parts of Guyana’s Atlantic waters – including much of the Stabroek Block.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, Guyana’s government is naturally upbeat. Raphael Trotman, minister of governance, described the find as “<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-21/exxon-s-guyana-oil-find-may-be-worth-12-times-the-nation-s-gdp">transformational</a>” – a common view when such news is released, nourishing a bonanza political-economic model of hydrocarbon exploitation and development. You would have heard similar terms being bandied about back when the Falklands were being described as a “<a href="http://geographical.co.uk/geopolitics/hotspot/item/986-hotspot-falkland-islands">South Atlantic Kuwait</a>” or Equatorial Guinea was set for an “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/07/business/international-business-west-africa-s-new-oil-barons-equatorial-guinea-joins.html">economic explosion</a>”.</p>
<p>Guyana’s president has <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/guyana-assures-exxon-venezuela-dispute-wont-slow-oil-exploration-1435357201">reassured Exxon Mobil</a> that its operations wont be disrupted by talk of disputes and controversies involving Venezuela. </p>
<h2>Guyana’s problem next door</h2>
<p>The international boundary between Guyana and Venezuela remains a source of tension for the latter. An <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2194990">1899 arbitration panel in Paris</a> settled the current borders but, as any visitor to Venezuela will attest, you can easily find maps and even tea towels that depict the country’s borders extending into a significant portion of Guyana to the east. The spat has even made it onto the internet – Guyana recently protested <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/16/guyana-protests-google-maps-changing-english-street-names-to-spanish">Google Maps’ choice of Spanish (Venezuelan) place names</a> in the disputed Esequiba region.</p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96803/original/image-20150930-5785-9b8xk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96803/original/image-20150930-5785-9b8xk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/96803/original/image-20150930-5785-9b8xk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96803/original/image-20150930-5785-9b8xk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96803/original/image-20150930-5785-9b8xk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=471&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96803/original/image-20150930-5785-9b8xk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96803/original/image-20150930-5785-9b8xk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/96803/original/image-20150930-5785-9b8xk2.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=592&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">This 1890 map shows the historic Venezuelan claim to western Guyana.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mapa_de_los_Estados_Unidos_de_Venezuela.jpg">Caotico66</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Since 1899, international law including the <a href="http://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.htm">Law of the Sea Convention</a> has granted additional sovereign rights to coastal states. And international maritime boundaries can take on added significance when potentially thousands of square miles of sea and seabed are at stake.</p>
<p>The Guyanese government is eager to ensure oil and gas exploration continues without controversy and has initiated a new round of diplomacy designed to garner support for the international status quo. After a meeting at the UN in New York on September 29 the leaders of the two countries agreed to <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/29/us-un-assembly-guyana-venezuela-idUSKCN0RT2CA20150929">resume diplomatic relations</a>, though we can expect a great deal more presidential speech making and backroom diplomacy at the UN and regional summits.</p>
<p>The two nations have plenty of history. The Guyanese government will be mindful of <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-24500362">an incident in 2013</a> when the Venezuelan navy detained a survey ship operating in what it considered to be disputed waters. The ship was owned by Malaysia and operated on behalf of an American company. </p>
<p>At home, Maduro is under pressure to be seen as defending the “fatherland”. He also faces elections in December and Venezuelan voters may not be in a forgiving mood given <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2013/sep/26/venezuela-food-shortages-rich-country-cia">food shortages and chronic inflation</a>.</p>
<p>The end result is what we might describe as “<a href="http://knowledge.sagepub.com/view/hdbk_nation/n26.xml">hot nationalism</a>”, a situation where political leaders talk grimly about the dangers facing their countries, or conversely talk about the historic opportunities to make a notable difference to their countries. Either way, “oil talk” can and does inflame the passions, especially when at least one party thinks the discovery was made in disputed waters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/47814/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Klaus Dodds does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>An oil discovery means more income for this small South American country – and some unwanted attention.Klaus Dodds, Professor of Geopolitics, Royal Holloway University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/284132014-07-08T12:03:42Z2014-07-08T12:03:42ZDigital media is just as dirty as oily celluloid and vinyl<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53290/original/ffvpwkp3-1404815011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/53290/original/ffvpwkp3-1404815011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53290/original/ffvpwkp3-1404815011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53290/original/ffvpwkp3-1404815011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53290/original/ffvpwkp3-1404815011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53290/original/ffvpwkp3-1404815011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/53290/original/ffvpwkp3-1404815011.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Oil-powered.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock.</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Two decades after Auty and Mikesell coined the phrase, the “<a href="http://global.oup.com/academic/product/sustainable-development-in-mineral-economies-9780198294870;jsessionid=64E851B336768A4486DAB16F9287E9F0?cc=gb&lang=en&#">resource curse</a>” remains a constant theme of environmental analysis. Whenever we watch a film or listen to a record, we are connected to natural and geological resources. </p>
<p>In the old days, celluloid and vinyl were both oil derivatives; today, we boast that we are all about bits, not atoms, as <a href="http://web.media.mit.edu/%7Enicholas/Wired/WIRED3-01.html">Nicholas Negroponte</a> so memorably put it. But we can’t escape nature so easily.</p>
<p>Our vast networks of digital machines need energy to run on, and as things stand, energy comes from atoms. Fossil fuels account for more than 80% of that energy, and oil for considerably more than a third. Electronic media always look clean, elegant, almost immaterial. But the slim leads they plug into run inexorably back to underground deposits of long-dead plants and animals.</p>
<p>Getting oil out of the ground, converted to power and conducted into our offices and homes is a dirty job. It has been since the ancient Mesopotamians used oil seeping from the ground in what is now Iraq to fuel their lamps. But the business has not got any cleaner.</p>
<p>The other thing energy is made of is law. Not just the laws of physics, but the legal structures that now extend across the planet, just like the tendrils tying tablets, laptops and phones to the electricity grid. The point of law is to provide justice. That may or may not work within a single nation: when law goes international, it becomes a lot more like politics. And the calling of politics is not justice but power. </p>
<p>Shell, the Dutch multinational, recently <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-20/shell-says-wins-u-k-court-ruling-in-nigerian-oil-spills-case.html">won</a> a striking victory in a UK court against the Bodo community of the Niger Delta over the spilling of half a million barrels of oil on their lands. Quite why this case was heard in London rather than Lagos is hard to tell. The case has been heard in Lagos too: maybe one side or the other wanted a different result. </p>
<p>Either way, by <a href="http://www.shell.com.ng/aboutshell/media-centre/news-and-media-releases/2014-releases/Senior-english-judge-delivers-ruling-bodo-trial.html">Shell’s account</a>, Justice Akenhead’s ruling means that they were not responsible for spills due to theft, a common though dangerous practice in the Delta. On the other side, <a href="http://www.leighday.co.uk/News/2014/June-2014/London-High-Court-rules-that-Shell-Nigeria-could-b">Leigh Day</a>, the law firm acting for the Bodo, believe they are. Shell is offering £30 million compensation; the Bodo are seeking £300m. </p>
<p>Those figures work out at either £6 or £60 a barrel. Quite honestly, neither figure looks anything like adequate to pay for the clean-up, let alone for the illness, loss of animals and crops, and the sheer unpleasantness of years of pollution. </p>
<p>London or Lagos, Shell or the thieves? There are no white hats in this business. But as we produce and consume our media, we should contemplate, with at least a shiver of embarrassment, the banality of this kind of dispute arising every day on every continent. We do not need a civil war in Iraq to remind us that wherever oil has been discovered, it has been a curse to the people who live nearby.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/28413/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
Two decades after Auty and Mikesell coined the phrase, the “resource curse” remains a constant theme of environmental analysis. Whenever we watch a film or listen to a record, we are connected to natural…Sean Cubitt, Professor of Film and Television, Goldsmiths, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/240492014-03-06T14:42:33Z2014-03-06T14:42:33ZFrom pearls to oil: Venezuela’s long history of boom-and-bust<p>Protests continue unabated in Venezuela over inequality and abuses of power, with even the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-26446063">anniversary of Hugo Chavez’s death</a> unable to restore calm to the country. Despite sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves, many of Venezuela’s <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21586850-adjustment-and-reform-are-economically-essential-politically-impossible-maduros-balancing">citizens struggle</a> to afford basic goods. Indeed, Venezuela has a long history with commodity boom-and-bust cycles and the inequalities and unrest they produce. </p>
<p>And by long history, I don’t mean since the 1920s, when Venezuela’s oil boom began. I mean since the 1520s when the promise of pearls wrested from coastal oyster beds transformed the region’s economy. It is hard not to marvel at how the exploitation of natural resources has shaped this country’s history, and to ponder the economic and social costs of these periodic bonanzas.</p>
<h2>Commodity promise</h2>
<p>In the early sixteenth century, as today, Venezuela’s future hinged on the promise of a particular commodity and the problems associated with its exploitation. It was pearls, not oil or precious metals that first drew Spanish attention to this section of the South American coastline. Treasure hunters initially traded for pearls with indigenous residents of the coast and adjacent islands of Margarita and Cubagua. </p>
<p>When relations with the locals soured, Spaniards cast their net wider, enslaving people from the Bahamas to Brazil. In pursuit of profits, the colonial elite forced thousands of divers into a brutal labour regime in search of the jewel. The patterns of natural and human resource exploitation established in the Venezuelan pearl fisheries long outlasted the profits they produced.</p>
<p>As the desire for pearls prompted a forced diaspora of labourers from the Caribbean to the West African coast, it also brought shifts in political and economic capital within Europe. Then as today, the promise of this natural resource brought important foreign investment to Venezuela. The Spanish crown granted the German banking family, the Welsers, administration of the colony in return for financial and political support.</p>
<h2>High costs</h2>
<p>But even at the height of the pearl boom there were naysayers, people who observed the high costs of this extractive regime. Some residents of the Pearl Coast (as the region came to be called) lamented the effects of such intensive harvesting on the region’s ecology and sought protective measures for the oyster banks. Other observers focused on the human costs of the pearl industry. Dominican friar Bartolomé de Las Casas, the famed defender of America’s indigenous peoples, condemned prevailing practices, claiming that the horrors of pearl diving exceeded those of labouring in the silver mines on the American mainland.</p>
<p>The dangers of pearl diving were considerable: exploding eardrums, shark attacks, a punishing whip for divers who moved too slowly or failed to deliver the right numbers of oysters to the boat. The greed of Spanish investors led to over-fishing, with enslaved divers harvesting young and mature oysters willy-nilly, tearing up the seabed that nourished them in the process. In the frenzied atmosphere, the corpses of slaves who drowned or died while in the water were often left there, the lifeless bodies drawing sharks to the vicinity and further endangering the surviving divers.</p>
<p>Today’s oil refineries do not rely on similar labour regimes. Profits are greater and less easily shared than those created in the pearl fisheries. Pearls, unlike petroleum, do not need to be refined in order to render profit. Pearls’ immediate perfection and accessibility gave those who strived to retrieve them a small but important degree of power. The divers at the heart of this industry would secret away the best specimens for themselves and relinquish the pearls to their putative masters only in return for highly-desired goods, such as playing cards, wine and clothes. Slippery, small pearls constantly evaded monopoly control.</p>
<p>It is worth recalling how this long-ago maritime boom ended: in the exhaustion of a natural resource; in the creation of a labour regime and social order that undermined monopoly control; in the formation of a regional economy where pearls abounded and all else was scarce.</p>
<p>Reflection on the enduring costs of extractive economies is not new in Venezuela, where the influence of the country’s early pearl boom on a national culture of exploitation has long been a matter of public and literary reflection. But in Venezuela as elsewhere throughout the Americas, colonial legacies of violence and inequality continue to defy resolution. It is sobering to remember how long and tortured a history the country has with the natural wealth that sustains and warps its present as it did its past.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/24049/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Molly A. Warsh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Protests continue unabated in Venezuela over inequality and abuses of power, with even the anniversary of Hugo Chavez’s death unable to restore calm to the country. Despite sitting on the world’s largest…Molly A. Warsh, Assistant Professor of World History, University of PittsburghLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/150882013-06-12T20:31:17Z2013-06-12T20:31:17ZRevisiting the banana republic and other familiar destinations<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25377/original/dtdn62bx-1371009509.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">With the end of the boom looming, Australia is set to revisit some old economic concerns.</span> </figcaption></figure><blockquote>
<p>We took the view in the 1970s – it’s the old cargo cult mentality of Australia that she’ll be right. This is the lucky country, we can dig up another mound of rock and someone will buy it from us, or we can sell a bit of wheat and bit of wool and we will just sort of muddle through … In the 1970s … we became a third world economy selling raw materials and food and we let the sophisticated industrial side fall apart … If in the final analysis Australia is so undisciplined, so disinterested in its salvation and its economic well being, that it doesn’t deal with these fundamental problems … … Then you are gone. You are a banana republic. </p>
</blockquote>
<p>Revisiting then-Labor Prime Minister Paul Keating’s infamous 1986 warning should remind us how economic conditions change and how they keep changing: how new “realities” are quickly replaced by even newer “realities” masquerading as permanent changes.</p>
<p>Resources have been good for Australia, unlike for some other countries where there really has been a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse">resource curse</a>. However, with the end of the boom it is likely that we will revisit some earlier concerns about Australia’s over-reliance on resources.</p>
<p>Another quote from Bob Hawke, Paul Keating and John Button in 1991, taken from <a href="http://trove.nla.gov.au/work/7302672?q&sort=holdings+desc&_=1371008855926&versionId=10240183"><em>Building a Competitive Australia</em></a> also seems particularly relevant at the moment.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This tough, increasingly competitive world of five and a half billion people does not owe, and will not give, seventeen million Australians an easy prosperity. The days of our being able to hitch a free ride in a world clamouring, and prepared to pay high prices, for our rural and mineral products, are behind us. From this fact flows everything else.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This sentiment was true for the 1980s and early 1990s, but less so for the 2000s where rising prices for resources and increases in national income provided an easier prosperity than Hawke could have imagined.</p>
<p>In 2000, Keating was still arguing against the resources as saviour view of long-term Australian prosperity:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The global terms of trade will not suddenly flow back in the direction of commodity producers. So even if we wanted to, we can never again rely on export wealth generated by Australian farmers and miners to pay for the preservation of tariff walls to protect our manufacturing and services sectors from competition.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>China changed everything. Its voracious appetite for resources pumped up the prices Australia received for its exports – particularly coal and iron ore. Australians promptly forgot the warnings of the past, as resource wealth became the new reality masquerading as a permanent change.</p>
<p>Increased prices then led to a huge investment boom, with gas the major recipient in recent years. The scale has been remarkable, as a recent report from <a href="http://www.bree.gov.au/documents/publications/remp/REMP-2013-04.pdf">Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics</a> (BREE) shows.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25380/original/bsxyqkfh-1371010439.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25380/original/bsxyqkfh-1371010439.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25380/original/bsxyqkfh-1371010439.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25380/original/bsxyqkfh-1371010439.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=297&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25380/original/bsxyqkfh-1371010439.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25380/original/bsxyqkfh-1371010439.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25380/original/bsxyqkfh-1371010439.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projects at the committed stage, by commodity.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics </span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This boom has now peaked and Australia must now find new sources of growth. According to BREE, the “likely scenario” is that </p>
<blockquote>
<p>the value of projects currently at the Committed Stage is scheduled to moderate after 2013 as a result of the completion of mega projects currently under construction. In 2014 the stock of committed investment is expected to decrease by $8 billion, and then by a further $63 billion in 2015. From 2017 onwards, the stock of committed investment in the mining sector is projected to revert back to levels comparable to 2007.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25381/original/pk23hwsg-1371010581.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25381/original/pk23hwsg-1371010581.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25381/original/pk23hwsg-1371010581.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25381/original/pk23hwsg-1371010581.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=296&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25381/original/pk23hwsg-1371010581.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25381/original/pk23hwsg-1371010581.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25381/original/pk23hwsg-1371010581.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=373&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Outlook for committed project investment - “likely” scenario.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics </span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While some <a href="http://theconversation.com/the-anatomy-of-the-resource-boom-tells-us-its-only-going-to-get-better-for-taxpayers-10314">commentators</a>, including the Reserve Bank Governor <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2012/sp-gov-201112.html">Glenn Stevens</a>, argue that we are now entering the third – export – stage of the boom, it is likely that just as the boom surprised us on the way up, so will the crash on the way down. Australia will no doubt export more for at least a few years, as recent <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyReleaseDate/A5FB33BD2E3CC68FCA257496001547A1?OpenDocument">data</a> shows, but with increased global supply and lower prices, it is likely that we’ll start worrying about our dependence on resources once again.</p>
<p>Recent <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2013/mar/pdf/bu-0313-3.pdf">data</a> clearly shows that commodity prices are on the decline, with iron ore and coal prices substantially lower. According to the <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/frequency/commodity-prices.html">RBA</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Over the past year, the index has fallen by 8.6% in SDR terms. Much of this fall has been due to declines in the prices of coking coal, iron ore and thermal coal. The index has fallen by 9.9% in Australian dollar terms over the past year.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25391/original/mdq25cbw-1371015176.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/25391/original/mdq25cbw-1371015176.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25391/original/mdq25cbw-1371015176.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25391/original/mdq25cbw-1371015176.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=447&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25391/original/mdq25cbw-1371015176.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25391/original/mdq25cbw-1371015176.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/25391/original/mdq25cbw-1371015176.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=561&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Reserve Bank of Australia</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Australia is a lucky country, but it is also vulnerable. Australia’s historical vulnerability to declines in international resources demand is about to re-emerge, which will make economic management a difficult task after the September election. </p>
<p>Things have been tough for the Rudd and Gillard governments, but they will be even tougher for an Abbott government constrained by their rhetoric of the dangers of public debt. Labor was helped by the investment revitalisation of the Chinese economy, but should they win the election, the Coalition will come into office at a time of Chinese economic consolidation and rebalancing.</p>
<p>In the late 1980s, when some commentators were eulogising about the end of the industrial revolution and touting the beginning of the information age, Australia appeared to be doomed unless it weaned itself off a reliance on resources. This new reality was superseded by an even newer one – the remarkable rise of the Chinese economy. Not only did Chinese demand increase the price of Australian exports, but it also decreased the price of Australian imports. The terms of trade – the average price level of exports in relation to the average price level of imports – is a ratio (or fraction) and so can be affected by both the numerator and the denominator. Rising costs in China are likely to constrain further reductions in the price of manufactured goods.</p>
<p>The terms of trade improved remarkably from the early 2000s, it then declined as commodity prices fell in the immediate aftermath of the global economic crisis. To the surprise of many, including myself, it then ascended again to new heights as China embarked on one of the biggest investment booms in history, a boom that required many of the things that Australia exports to support it.</p>
<p>There can be no denying that Australia has been lucky to be in a position to take advantage of China’s industrialisation and recent Asian economic exceptionalism in the face of a slow American recovery and continuing European crisis. Similarly, however, any downturn in China and other Asian economies will now negatively affect Australia.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15088/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tom Conley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>We took the view in the 1970s – it’s the old cargo cult mentality of Australia that she’ll be right. This is the lucky country, we can dig up another mound of rock and someone will buy it from us, or we…Tom Conley, Senior Lecturer, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.