tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/seat-analyses-6649/articlesSeat analyses – The Conversation2013-09-06T06:32:51Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/178432013-09-06T06:32:51Z2013-09-06T06:32:51ZElection 2013 states and seats: the full package<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30845/original/sh2qr8fs-1378432337.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Over there - what are the key states and seats that will decide the election? Here's our handy guide.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lyndon Mechielsen</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>From the moment prime minister Kevin Rudd called the election on August 4, The Conversation has kept you up-to-date and informed with the best political analysis from Australia’s sharpest academic minds.</p>
<p>In federal election campaigns, it is often the case that the nuances of each region are lost in the whirlwind of campaigning, promises, debates and gaffes. So, The Conversation took a closer look and profiled <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/state-of-the-states">every state and territory</a>, along with a number of <a href="https://theconversation.com/topics/seat-analyses">key seats</a> that will decide Saturday’s election. Curated highlights follow.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Queensland</h2>
<p>The home state of the prime minister, Queensland has the highest number of marginal seats in the nation. <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-queensland-17319">Previewing the state</a>, Professor in Political Science at Queensland University of Technology Clive Bean argued that it is Queensland’s changing demographics that result in its swinging nature.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Queensland’s population is not only growing, it is also more dispersed than in other mainland Australian states. As a result, the state has a disproportionate number of marginal seats and significant numbers of seats change hands when support swings from one major party to the other.</p>
<p>In Queensland, perhaps more than in some states, support for regional areas continues to be an electoral issue, consistent with the state’s more broadly distributed population. This is one reason why political parties such as Katter’s Australian Party and the Palmer United Party are more optimistic about their chances of success in this state than some others.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Conversation also profiled <a href="https://theconversation.com/old-dog-new-tricks-can-beattie-save-labor-in-forde-16843">Forde</a>, where former state premier Peter Beattie is the high-profile ALP candidate; Pauline Hanson’s former seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/a-loss-in-oxley-could-spell-disaster-for-labor-17058">Oxley</a>; the intriguing battle in former speaker Peter Slipper’s Sunshine Coast seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-ghost-of-peter-slipper-will-still-haunt-fisher-17010">Fisher</a>; and the inner-city seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/defying-the-rudd-revival-brisbane-is-the-real-bellwether-seat-16970">Brisbane</a>.</p>
<hr>
<h2>New South Wales</h2>
<p>If one area has been said to be crucial to electoral success this year, it is the ever-growing region of western Sydney. However, Mark Rolfe, Lecturer in the School of Social Sciences at UNSW, <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-new-south-wales-17348">wrote</a> that New South Wales is divided along more than just one line in suburban Sydney: different issues affect voters in the north and south coasts and in regional and rural areas.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The higher-income, higher-skilled, university-educated “knowledge workers” in the producer services, such as finance, law, accounting, banking, tend to live in the north shore, eastern suburbs and inner west.</p>
<p>opposition leader Tony Abbott is hoping to attract the socially conservative types here and elsewhere in western Sydney with his stance on same-sex marriage, favouring a conservative version of multiculturalism. Unlike the 2010 election, neither party has mentioned limiting migration, in order to avoid alienating these voters.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In addition, we honed in on the key western Sydney seats of <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-easy-way-to-lindsay-15544">Lindsay</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/greenway-or-the-place-which-jaymes-diaz-is-trying-to-represent-17051">Greenway</a>; the rural seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-england-an-independent-seat-in-more-ways-than-one-15523">New England</a>, which is almost certain to be won by the Nationals’ Barnaby Joyce; deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese’s inner-city seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/grayndler-out-of-the-mix-for-the-greens-16960">Grayndler</a>; and the Central Coast seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-nsw-central-coast-beautiful-one-day-dobell-the-next-16944">Dobell</a>.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Victoria</h2>
<p>Generally considered a Labor stronghold, the state of Victoria has been somewhat absent from the federal campaign, <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-victoria-17346">wrote</a> Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer in the School of Political and Social Inquiry at Monash University.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>With a total of 37 seats, the state of Victoria should figure as a major battleground in federal elections. The reality, however, is that the second-largest state in the Commonwealth (in terms of population) tends to be bypassed in national election campaigns for the simple reason that, for all its divisions, Victoria has comparatively few marginal seats.</p>
<p>Victoria is a strident sort of place – the product, presumably, of an electorate in which 80% of the lower house seats are safe for the three main parties.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>From a seat perspective, we examined the Greens’ sole lower house seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/reassessing-melbourne-three-years-on-15515">Melbourne</a>; the Labor-held outer suburban pair of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-labor-times-are-changing-in-hotham-16859">Hotham</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/redistributions-will-make-mcewen-a-safer-labor-prospect-17114">McEwen</a>; the contest of personality in Sophie Mirabella’s rural seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/indi-and-the-politics-of-personality-17228">Indi</a>; and the nation’s most marginal electorate, <a href="https://theconversation.com/ultra-marginal-corangamite-is-a-mirror-of-the-nation-16883">Corangamite</a>.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30856/original/yvb7c722-1378442200.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30856/original/yvb7c722-1378442200.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30856/original/yvb7c722-1378442200.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30856/original/yvb7c722-1378442200.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30856/original/yvb7c722-1378442200.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30856/original/yvb7c722-1378442200.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30856/original/yvb7c722-1378442200.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Opposition leader Tony Abbott on a visit to Australia’s most marginal electorate, Corangamite.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<hr>
<h2>Western Australia</h2>
<p>The “golden state” of Western Australia has also largely been ignored in the election campaign in terms of targeted policy, advertising and campaign trips, <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-western-australia-17425">noted</a> Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics at Monash University and Visiting Research Associate in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Western Australia.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In fact, features of the WA-Canberra relationship are often thrown into sharp relief during federal elections. It is reflected in the comparatively modest financial investment by both major parties to woo WA voters. It is underlined by the minimal time that prime ministerial aspirants spend campaigning in the state. And it is also reflected, thankfully, in the amount spent on paid election advertising in WA.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We also looked at the first indigenous member of the lower house Ken Wyatt’s seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/can-ken-wyatt-hold-on-to-hasluck-16835">Hasluck</a>; the three-cornered contest in <a href="https://theconversation.com/friendly-rivalry-in-oconnor-can-the-nationals-win-again-16850">O'Connor</a>; and retiring defence minister Stephen Smith’s seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/chalk-the-seat-of-perth-up-to-a-likely-labor-win-16857">Perth</a>.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Tasmania</h2>
<p>With unemployment on the rise in Tasmania, the mantra of “jobs, jobs, jobs” will improve the Coalition’s chances in the Apple Isle and may lead to an electoral wipeout for Labor, <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-tasmania-17318">reported</a> Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at the University of Tasmania Tony McCall.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Leading up to the September 7 federal election, one of the multiple three-word slogans of the campaign has particular resonance for Tasmanian voters: jobs, jobs, jobs. Tasmania’s unemployment rate was at a national high of <a href="http://www.treasury.tas.gov.au/domino/dtf/dtf.nsf/LookupFiles/Labour-Force.pdf/%24file/Labour-Force.pdf">8.4% in July</a>.</p>
<p>At the social and political level there is constant political tension. Some describe it as war where there can be no peace. This war is fought around the extent to which “green activism” and minority government uncertainty has resulted in Tasmanians being unwilling victims of an out-of-control social experiment.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We also analysed the chances of military veteran Andrew Nikolic wresting the seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/put-bass-down-as-a-coalition-win-17089">Bass</a> from the ALP; and examined the “Shakespearean” contest in <a href="https://theconversation.com/victory-in-denison-a-shakespearean-question-16839">Denison</a>, currently held by independent MP Andrew Wilkie.</p>
<hr>
<h2>South Australia</h2>
<p>According to Haydon Manning, Associate Professor in Politics and Public Policy at Flinders University, Labor faces an unexpected annihilation at the ballot box in South Australia this weekend.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>It’s always difficult to assess the electoral mood in any community. But subtle indicators suggest South Australian voters could be about to repeat the 1990s banishment of Labor members when, over two elections in 1993 and 1996, the party lost four seats.</p>
<p>The sense of disappointment pervades politics in South Australia. This may prompt swinging voters, and even a proportion of rusted-on Labor voters, to express their frustration on polling day. Notwithstanding reservations about an Abbott-led government, many will vote for the Liberal Party in the House of Representatives, rendering greater-than-expected swings against those Labor MPs sitting on “safe” margins.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Labor also looks unlikely to overcome a 0.6% margin to claim the Liberal-held, inner-Adelaide suburban seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/boothby-not-yet-a-likely-proposition-for-labor-17379">Boothby</a>.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Northern Territory</h2>
<p>Government is the central economic entity in the singular, indigenous-dominated demography of the Northern Territory. But there’s more to the NT than just rednecks and red sand, <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-northern-territory-17345">wrote</a> Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow at Charles Darwin University.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Australians see the NT as a place of rednecks, red sand, Uluru and Aborigines. This is an incomplete picture. The NT is a modern – if curious – economy. The major city, Darwin, even looks like a Parramatta transported to the northern coast of Australia. But urban similarities aside, the NT has a deep dependence upon the Commonwealth.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>In the seat of <a href="https://theconversation.com/lingiari-unique-but-still-a-mirror-of-the-broader-contest-15518">Lingari</a> - which comprises 99% of the land area of the Northern Territory - Labor MP Warren Snowdon may find it difficult to retain his seat unless the ALP can restore its Aboriginal vote.</p>
<hr>
<h2>Australian Capital Territory</h2>
<p>Against the likely national trend, we should expect an increase in the ALP vote in the nation’s capital, given opposition leader Tony Abbott’s proposed cuts to the public service, <a href="https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-australian-capital-territory-17633">wrote</a> Robin Tennant-Wood, Assistant Professor in the Faculty of Business and Government at the University of Canberra.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Canberra revolves around two levels of government and three universities. The three largest employers in town are, in order, the federal government, the territory government and the Australian National University. This makes the territory highly vulnerable to political change and to cuts to the public service or higher education funding.</p>
<p>Due to the nature of being the national capital, however, the ACT population is politically aware and engaged, and any decisions taken at national level do, inevitably, have an effect on the local population.</p>
</blockquote>
<hr>
<p><em>Stay tuned to The Conversation for the best post-election news, analysis and comment as we bring you all the wash-up from the big day on Saturday.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
From the moment prime minister Kevin Rudd called the election on August 4, The Conversation has kept you up-to-date and informed with the best political analysis from Australia’s sharpest academic minds…Rory Cahill, EditorFron Jackson-Webb, Deputy Editor and Senior Health EditorMichael Courts, Deputy Section Editor: Politics + SocietyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/168832013-09-05T20:38:23Z2013-09-05T20:38:23ZUltra-marginal Corangamite is a mirror of the nation<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30576/original/6p9zr9dm-1378173729.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Labor MP Darren Cheeseman faces an uphill battle to retain Corangamite. The Victorian electorate is Australia's most marginal seat.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Crosling</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In 2013, the Victorian electorate of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/vic/corangamite.htm">Corangamite</a> is a mirror of the nation’s electoral allegiance and social composition. At the 2010 federal election, Labor’s Darren Cheeseman <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-207.htm">narrowly won</a> on the back of Green preferences, but this year a Liberal victory <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/labor-faces-defeat-in-victorian-seats-of-corangamite-deakin-and-la-trobe/story-fnho52ip-1226707877043">seems likely</a>. </p>
<p>The electorate includes the southern suburbs of Geelong, the towns of the Surf Coast such as Torquay and Lorne and extends westward to Colac on the fringe of the dairy belt. The settlements within Corangamite exemplify the rapid growth of Australia’s peri-urban coastal regions in recent decades. The southern suburbs of Geelong were once a Liberal enclave in a blue-collar city with a struggling football team. </p>
<p>However, now the football team are <a href="http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/live-2011-afl-grand-final/story-e6frf9jf-1226153937260">superstars</a>, the factories have been converted into <a href="http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2013/08/21/371209_property-news.html">craft markets</a> and the guitar rock of <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozsSoLXUNAY">Magic Dirt</a> has given way to the surf/roots <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0E1bNmyPWww">Xavier Rudd</a> as the local music of choice. The southern suburbs now extend beyond the hills to the much less scenic plain and have become classic mortgage belt country.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-207.htm">2007</a>, Cheeseman secured substantial swings across the electorate to become the first Labor MP for Corangamite since 1929. At the 2010 election, Labor’s vote slipped somewhat in rural areas, but the party held or increased its vote slightly in growing suburban areas. This enabled Cheeseman to eke out a narrow victory over Liberal candidate Sarah Henderson. Corangamite can lay claim to having been the electorate <a href="http://nofibs.com.au/2013/07/27/in-corangamite-386-voters-could-have-elected-pm-abbott-primmich-reports">that decided</a> the result of the election.</p>
<p>Since 2010, Labor’s road has been hard in Corangamite. Local manufacturing enterprises such as <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/future-of-alcoas-geelong-plant-in-doubt-20130502-2ivhf.html">Alcoa</a> and <a href="http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2013/05/23/365626_news.html">Ford</a> are under constant pressure. These businesses are much less significant employers than they were in the 1980s, but they retain a sentimental hold on public opinion. If Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott want a nation that <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4745566.html">“makes things”</a>, Geelong voters will want their town to make things as well. </p>
<p>Morale is low in the local retail sector and empty shops are a common sight in Geelong’s CBD. The Coalition’s anti carbon-tax campaign probably has made more of an impact in Geelong than elsewhere, exacerbating the pain of the faltering retail sector. The <a href="http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/salary-package-firms-sack-staff-express-outrage-over-fringe-benefits-tax-tightening/story-e6frfmd9-1226681606026">recent changes</a> to fringe benefits tax and salary packaging have also probably hurt Labor due to their impact on the motor industry. Cheeseman has been well aware of his perilous position, and perhaps as a result was an <a href="http://www.colacherald.com.au/2013/06/corangamite-mp-calls-for-rudds-return/">early advocate</a> of Rudd’s return to the Labor leadership.</p>
<p>If Corangamite is a mirror of the nation, its election candidates are reflective of their parties. <a href="http://www.alp.org.au/darren_cheeseman">Cheeseman</a>, who has a background in local government, an employment history with the Community and Public Sector Union and the Association for the Blind, is an archetypal Labor MP. <a href="http://sarahhenderson.com.au/about-sarah-2/">Henderson</a> is a former journalist, media consultant and daughter of a former Liberal state MP. She is a fluent speaker and an aggressive campaigner. </p>
<p>In 2010, Henderson ran an enormously expensive campaign and covered the electorate with billboards. However, that year she could not defy the Victorian trend to Labor, disunity in the local Liberal Party and the doubts some Liberal-inclined voters in Victoria felt about Tony Abbott.</p>
<p>In 2013, however, Labor are on the defensive. Henderson’s campaign has a more grassroots feel. There are fewer billboards, but plenty of posters in the front yards in Liberal suburbs. The Liberal base is enthused. Henderson’s campaign in 2013 has <a href="http://nofibs.com.au/2013/09/01/sarah-henderson-corangamites-incoming-liberal-mp-primmich-interview/">cleaved closely</a> to national Liberal themes that - unlike in 2010 - are winners in Corangamite. </p>
<p>On potentially troublesome areas such as asylum seeker policy or 457 visas, Henderson has the ready argument that Labor had been in power for six years and has failed to solve these problems. It is an argument that voters - apart from committed Labor or Green partisans - seem likely to accept. Labor has relied heavily on <a href="http://nofibs.com.au/2013/08/18/corangamite-campaign-tactics-scott_c_b-reports/">incumbency</a> and highlighted initiatives such as the National Broadband Network and support for manufacturing. Labor has won the pamphlet war to fill up letterboxes but this may be a sign of its overall weakness. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30583/original/fvk324fh-1378174154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30583/original/fvk324fh-1378174154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30583/original/fvk324fh-1378174154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30583/original/fvk324fh-1378174154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30583/original/fvk324fh-1378174154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30583/original/fvk324fh-1378174154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30583/original/fvk324fh-1378174154.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Liberal candidate Sarah Henderson is in a promising position to take the seat of Corangamite in her second campaign.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Henderson’s campaign has received <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/nats-enter-election-in-most-marginal-seat/story-fn3dxiwe-1226695778227">further support from Andrew Black</a>, Corangamite’s first National Party candidate in decades. The young Catholic conservative has echoed Henderson in public appearances, although he has been a more vociferous defender of 457 visas than her. Greens candidate Lloyd Davies is also a modern representative of his party like Cheeseman and Henderson. Davies is an engineer and has emphasised the party’s commitment to improve social services, in particular Dentacare.</p>
<p>Victoria has rarely been a happy hunting ground for the populist right, but candidates from Country Alliance, the Australian Protectionists, Australian Christians, Family First and Palmer United have <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/cora/">all nominated in Corangamite</a>. Dairy farmers in the electorate feel under constant economic pressure and the Country Alliance and the Australian Protectionist candidates have echoed these concerns - in particular the supermarket duopoly. </p>
<p>This is also a theme that the local Greens, inspired by their leader Christine Milne’s appeal to farmers, have taken up. The Palmer United Party candidate Buddy Rojek made a run for ideologically ambivalent voters by supporting marriage equality whilst also declaring himself a climate change skeptic. However, Rojek was disendorsed by the party after <a href="http://nofibs.com.au/2013/08/15/pup-candidate-buddy-rojek-says-his-offer-to-give-campaign-volunteers-a-party-night-with-hot-models-seemed-a-good-strategy-for-victorias-surf-coast">he promised to supply</a> “hot babes” at his election night party.</p>
<p>Funding for local ambulance and health services has been a particular flash point in Colac, with both the Liberal and Labor candidates blaming either the Commonwealth or the state government. In response, Country Alliance and the Protectionists have called for a reallocation of government expenditure to basic services but the Protectionist candidate has also advocated for lower immigration. The Sex Party and the Greens have argued that their taxation proposals, such as an improved mining tax or the taxation of religious organisation, could raise funds to support these government services.</p>
<p>Corangamite is a mirror of the nation. Public and private polls have both consistently pointed to a local Liberal victory. This would be as unsurprising as a national Coalition victory.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Geoffrey Robinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In 2013, the Victorian electorate of Corangamite is a mirror of the nation’s electoral allegiance and social composition. At the 2010 federal election, Labor’s Darren Cheeseman narrowly won on the back…Geoffrey Robinson, Senior Lecturer, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Deakin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/169442013-09-04T20:38:05Z2013-09-04T20:38:05ZThe NSW Central Coast: beautiful one day, Dobell the next<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30558/original/yqvk4f2q-1378128826.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Dobell MP Craig Thomson has been spending time in a courthouse in addition to Parliament House in recent times.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The seats of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/dobell.htm">Dobell</a> and <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/robertson.htm">Robertson</a> encompass most of the Central Coast between Sydney and Newcastle and therefore preside over a glistening necklace of beaches and waterways that are among the most beautiful in Australia.</p>
<p>So, at one level, it’s completely incongruous that such a typically laid-back area has attracted such vitriol and controversy over the years. But they were two of the four seats (along with <a href="https://theconversation.com/greenway-or-the-place-which-jaymes-diaz-is-trying-to-represent-17051">Greenway</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/no-easy-way-to-lindsay-15544">Lindsay</a>) that the Coalition should have won in this state in 2010 but didn’t, thanks to the incompetence of the NSW Liberal Party.</p>
<h2>Electoral history and profile</h2>
<p>All this is a far cry from the sleepier time in 1984 when Michael Lee began a 17 year tenure for the ALP in Dobell. He was one of the rising stars of the party, touted for greater things than mere ministry. In the 1980s and early 1990s, the electorate extended further inland, making it a much safer seat for Labor with a two-party preferred vote of 60% or over.</p>
<p>In 2001, however, Lee lost Dobell to Liberal Ken Ticehurst, who won with a mere 0.76% margin in the two-party preferred vote. He built from that in 2004, only to lose the seat to Craig Thomson in 2007.</p>
<p>In the 1960s, comedian Spike Milligan once <a href="http://www.gosford.nsw.gov.au/library/local_history/Suburbs/documents/history-of-woy-woy">described</a> Woy Woy, a town in Robertson, as “the largest above ground cemetery in the world”. Now, the area attracts many “refugees” from Sydney, seeking retirement or a more affordable lifestyle. It is partly a dormitory suburb of Sydney with all the attendant problems.</p>
<p>The area has a narrow economy based largely on tourism, consumer services (for example retail) and some producer services such as law and accounting. Unemployment is <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED113">at 7.1%</a>, so above the national average of 5.6%. The over-60 cohort is also above national averages. Both seats show that the 20-30 group are up to 2% below the national average. In other words, many kids move to the big smoke to study or get jobs.</p>
<p>Many residents need to commute daily to Sydney for work. That means either tentative travel along the old two-track railway for an hour and a half to two hours each way to the CBD, or for a similar time on the F3 freeway and roads. </p>
<p>Further, the F3 frequently suffers partial closures due to accidents. This was only partly relieved by widening of this originally 1960s architecture to three lanes the entire way. Tenuous transport connections to Sydney are confined by national parks, topographical difficulties and state governments that have not spent money as the new McMansion estates have blossomed in the area.</p>
<p>In other words, major infrastructure problems afflict the Central Coast. It has suffered water restrictions more often than Sydney and at times the water has had an atrociously over-fluoridated taste. Then there is the worry about medical facilities for the aged.</p>
<h2>The Liberal push</h2>
<p>So, it’s not surprising that the politicians have sniffed the discontents and the votes. Both John Howard and Tony Abbott <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/federal-election-2013-tony-abbott-on-the-campaign-trail-in-nsw-seat-of-dobell/story-fnho52ip-1226691904004">toured Dobell</a> and Robertson in the first week of the campaign. This was a follow-up to Abbott <a href="http://www.liberal.org.au/latest-news/2013/06/01/tony-abbott-transcript-address-nsw-liberal-party-state-council-central-coast">addressing</a> a Liberal Party State Council meeting there in June. Since then, he has issued a <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/tony-abbott-spends-big-on-central-coast-in-bid-to-win-marginals-20130827-2snl9.html">policy for the Central Coast</a> which proposes A$21 million in spending.</p>
<p>Given the importance and swinging nature of Dobell and Robertson, a sensible person would conclude that the political parties should do their utmost to get good quality candidates without troublesome baggage. But sensible people and parties can part ways. Not even a good shellacking can make parties learn their lessons.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party selected Garry Whitaker for Dobell in late 2011, but <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/strife-for-liberals-candidate-in-craig-thomson-seat/story-e6frfkp9-1226251744014">dumped him</a> in the new year when it was found he had lived for years in a shed without council permission.</p>
<p>Abbott sent party enforcer and senator <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/liberal-dose-of-damage/story-e6frezz0-1226367837759">Bill Heffernan</a> to a party meeting on the coast to limit the power of party heavyweights Chris Hartcher and David Clarke. Heffernan did that in his own inimitable way. He is said to have become physical with one man and uttered to him that “I didn’t know you were a poofter”.</p>
<p>Despite this, Karen McNamara was chosen for Dobell. Her husband John stood there in 2010 and she is a factional ally of Hartcher and Clark. Some consolation was gained for head office when candidate Lucy Wicks was parachuted from the state executive into Robertson, only to be greeted by <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-05-07/libs-vote/3995592">considerable anger</a> from local members.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30574/original/wdn57hbm-1378171588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30574/original/wdn57hbm-1378171588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30574/original/wdn57hbm-1378171588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30574/original/wdn57hbm-1378171588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30574/original/wdn57hbm-1378171588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30574/original/wdn57hbm-1378171588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/30574/original/wdn57hbm-1378171588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former prime minister John Howard has been enlisted to help the campaigns of Liberal candidates Lucy Wicks and Karen McNamara in Robertson and Dobell respectively.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dan Himbrechts</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Overall, one finds the same sort of thing happening in the Liberal Party as in the Labor Party - but that the latter gets greater publicity for it.</p>
<h2>The Craig Thomson saga</h2>
<p>Let me reintroduce Craig Thomson, who has had his own merry dance of factional intrigues that I’ve detailed <a href="http://theconversation.com/all-in-the-game-shining-a-light-into-the-weird-world-of-craig-thomson-7140">elsewhere</a>. Some may remember Thomson’s notoriety as the ex-official of the Health Services Union under investigation for using the union credit card for brothels. That notoriety emerged <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-mp-accused-of-credit-card-rort-20090407-9zl7.html">in 2009</a>, although it was then not enough to stop him <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-115.htm">increasing his margin</a> the following year to 5.1% of the two-party preferred vote. Amazingly, when Labor had problems across the country in the 2010 election, he gained a swing of 1.14%.</p>
<p>The hammering by the media and Coalition led eventually to his <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-29/craig-thomson-leaves-labor-party/3978614">suspension from the ALP</a>. But then the headache for the state executive became finding a candidate. Nobody wanted to stand, except for ex-Liberal Trevor Drake who had had an <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-affairs/labor-pins-dobell-hopes-on-ex-liberal-councillor/story-fn59niix-1226665303327">argument</a> with his old party. He was the sole nominee and <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/trevor-drake-out-as-former-rudd-adviser-andrew-charlton-suggested-as-dobell-labor-candidate/story-e6frfkp9-1226692074130#mm-register">eventually withdrew</a> his nomination. It wasn’t until after the election was called that Emma McBride, a former Wyong councillor and daughter of a state MP, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/labor-finally-finds-candidate-for-craig-thomsons-seat-of-dobell-20130807-2rgl6.html">stepped forward</a>.</p>
<p>Given the political circus that has gone on, why wouldn’t millionaire ad man John Singleton - owner of 2GB and Gosford Stadium – step into the fray with the financing of <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/cricketer-nathan-bracken-to-run-as-independent-in-thomson-seat-of-dobell/story-fn9qr68y-1226695351498">“Team Central Coast”</a>, composed of former cricketer Nathan Bracken (in Dobell) and Lawrie McKinna, former coach of soccer club Central Coast Mariners and mayor of Gosford to run in Robertson.</p>
<p>Saturday will be difficult for Thomson and McBride given the <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/08/16/newspoll-54-to-46-to-liberal-in-robertson-and-dobell/">recent polling</a> in Dobell. What is disturbing, however, is that Karen McNamara has been absent from at least one <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-15/dobell-candidates-united-in-opposition-to-wallarah-two-mine/4888142">meeting over coal mining</a> in the region where Thomson and McBride have appeared. This seems to be a tactic of the NSW Liberal head office, which has sought to keep its inexperienced candidates across the valuable western Sydney seats away from the media and contentious issues, including <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberal-candidates-duck-the-spotlight-fearing-the-jaymes-diaz-effect-20130828-2sq3a.html">Jaymes Diaz</a> and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/liberal-candidate-links-asylum-seekers-to-traffic-jams-and-hospital-queues-20130903-2t1kw.html">Fiona Scott</a>.</p>
<p>It’s almost like they’re in a witness protection program – except this time, they are being protected from the voters.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16944/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Rolfe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The seats of Dobell and Robertson encompass most of the Central Coast between Sydney and Newcastle and therefore preside over a glistening necklace of beaches and waterways that are among the most beautiful…Mark Rolfe, Lecturer, School of Social Sciences, UNSW SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/169702013-09-02T20:42:24Z2013-09-02T20:42:24ZDefying the Rudd revival: Brisbane is the real bellwether seat<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30440/original/q823vcfh-1378040797.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The return of Kevin Rudd was aimed at denting the Coalition's chances in Queensland, however it now appears that Teresa Gambaro will hold on to the marginal seat of Brisbane.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If any seat is going to indicate whether all the pain that Kevin Rudd put the Labor Party through in regaining the prime ministership was worth it, it will be the inner-city seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/brisbane.htm">Brisbane</a>.</p>
<p>The seat of Brisbane is situated north of the Brisbane River, and wraps around and includes the Brisbane CBD, hugging the Brisbane River before spreading north, west and east like a drop of water on cement. It is composed of inner suburbs, ranging from the settled and family-based Ashgrove, to the nearby recently gentrified and trendy suburbs of Paddington and Red Hill, to the chic (or some may call bohemian) New Farm. </p>
<p>The seat’s changing landscape is partly reflected in the high proportion of units, flats and rented accommodation. Brisbane is also more mixed in multicultural terms, which differentiates it from other outer and “suburban” seats around Brisbane. So too do the property values – several of its suburbs have median prices of over A$700,000; three are rated highly by real estate surveys and a couple of others are seen as “gems”.</p>
<p>Ashgrove, a prosperous middle class suburb just 4km from the GPO, has gone through a renaissance in the past decade. At one stage, it had one of the highest proportions of renovations in the state. Its shopping precinct now boasts three major grocery outlets (all redeveloped), seven banks and a multitude of other services. Developments a kilometre east in Newmarket have also been commonplace. Brisbane has Queensland’s highest proportion of high-income households at <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED304">52.8%</a>.</p>
<p>You get the picture. The seat of Brisbane is for those upwardly mobile, on the move, and increasingly a place sought to live in for both families wanting access to good private schools (54% attend private schools) and services. There are professionals needing to be close to the city and young people wanting to be close to where the action is in terms of restaurants and nightclubs (Brisbane includes The Valley where these are in abundance). All this is helped by good public transport – bus, rail and, in some parts, river ferries.</p>
<p>Because of these features, Brisbane is a real bellwether seat. In terms of demographics, style and culture, it reflects the aspirational Australian character of the future. </p>
<p>If the Rudd revival was going to work anywhere and make an electoral difference, then Brisbane is that seat. It is presently held by Liberal Teresa Gambaro on the second narrowest margin of any Liberal seat in Queensland of <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-156.htm">just 1.13%</a>.</p>
<p>That Brisbane was a Labor seat from 1961 to 2010 (except for a brief Liberal gap between 1975 and 1980) further reinforces its symbolic value as a must-win for Labor. Indeed, Labor can trace its hold over the seat back to 1903. Failure in Brisbane will likely mean that its onslaughts in other marginal Liberal-held seats in Queensland such as Longman and Forde (which they need to win so desperately) are also likely to fail. It may also indicate that Labor will be threatened in its own nearby marginal seats of Moreton and Petrie.</p>
<p>It is interesting to note that Brisbane encapsulates state seats such as <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2012/results/district3.html">Ashgrove</a>, <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2012/results/district7.html">Brisbane Central</a> and <a href="http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2012/results/district77.html">Stafford</a>: seats that were once very safely held by Labor. However, all of these fell in the Campbell Newman-led LNP 2012 state election landslide. Even Brisbane Central, held by former premier Peter Beattie from 1989 to 2007, fell.</p>
<p>Importantly, Newman himself won the seat of Ashgrove with a larger-than-average swing of 14.55% on primary votes. The other state seat of Clayfield has mostly been a non-Labor stronghold - for a time marginal - and is now held very comfortably by state treasurer Tim Nicholls. Helped by a redistribution, the LNP won Brisbane at the 2010 federal election with a 5.7% swing.</p>
<p>Gambaro, Assistant Minister for Immigration and Citizenship in the last term of the Howard government, previously held the more outer suburban seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/petrie.htm">Petrie</a>, which she lost in 2007 to Labor’s Yvette D'Ath. Gambaro is highly recognisable in the community, something that is no doubt helped by the fact that the Gambaro family are well-known local restaurateurs. However, Gambaro is not taking anything for granted. She has now proclaimed she would <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/brisbane-coalition-mp-to-pressure-abbott-into-marriage-equality-20130822-2sen7.html">vote for same-sex marriage</a> if there was a conscience vote in parliament. This reflects the diversity of the seat.</p>
<p>Given the current state of the opinion polls and that the tide seems to running against Labor in Queensland, Brisbane will most likely remain in LNP hands. If Labor fails to win Brisbane then its whole strategy of reinstalling Rudd as leader on the basis that he would be able to clawback marginal Liberal seats like Brisbane will have been shown to be an abject failure.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16970/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Scott Prasser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If any seat is going to indicate whether all the pain that Kevin Rudd put the Labor Party through in regaining the prime ministership was worth it, it will be the inner-city seat of Brisbane. The seat…Scott Prasser, Executive Director, Public Policy Institute, Australian Catholic UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/170512013-09-01T20:49:47Z2013-09-01T20:49:47ZGreenway, or the place which Jaymes Diaz is trying to represent<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/30304/original/7sv8g85v-1377835857.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal candidate for Greenway Jaymes Diaz has made international headlines for his gaffe-prone campaign - but he may yet wrest the seat from Labor.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Channel 10</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ultra-marginal seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/greenway.htm">Greenway</a> in Sydney’s western suburbs has recently drawn international scrutiny after the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrQPXXHUilU">embarrassing media performance</a> of the Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz, who faltered when asked to explain the Coalition’s plans to stop the flow of boats with refugees. </p>
<p>Greenway is currently held by the Labor Party on the <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-122.htm">wafer-thin margin of 0.9%</a>, Labor’s smallest margin in New South Wales. It is centred on the suburb of Blacktown. Like many electorates in western Sydney, it is a snapshot of modern Australia. </p>
<p>Populated by voters from an incredibly multicultural background, Greenway has the nation’s <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED119">fourth highest proportion</a> under four years old. It is also the country’s third highest number of households with dependent children.</p>
<p>Created in 1984 when the size of parliament was increased, the history of Greenway is similar to many seats in western Sydney. It was once regarded as Labor strongholds until former prime minister John Howard’s pitch to aspirational voters. The region is now home to some of the most hotly contested seats in the country.</p>
<p>The Coalition first captured the seat in 2004 amidst the backdrop of a whispering campaign against the ALP candidate Ed Husic, a Muslim union official. This <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/28/1098667910937.html">campaign</a> saw an anonymous pamphlet drop stoking anti-Muslim sentiments, stating:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Ed Husic is a devout Muslim - Ed is working hard to get a better deal for Islam in Greenway.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The former ALP state secretary Eric Roozendaal claimed the campaign was “very effective” in inflaming anti-Muslim sentiment in the region, and Husic was ultimately unsuccessful in his bid for the seat.</p>
<p>This disturbing operation was seemingly mirrored three years later in the infamous <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7106164.stm">leaflet scandal</a> in the neighbouring seat of Lindsay, where Liberal-aligned workers were caught distributing bogus leaflets thanking the ALP for supporting terrorists involved with the Bali bombings.</p>
<p>As an electorate, Greenway is far harder to categorise than seats such as <a href="http://theconversation.com/no-easy-way-to-lindsay-15544">Lindsay</a>, one of the nation’s bellwether seats. This is mainly because the boundaries have been radically redrawn in recent years. In 2007 the electorate shifted north into the semi-rural Coalition voting regions of Windsor and Richmond, but three years later was pushed back south towards traditional Labor voters. </p>
<p>Labor’s Michelle Rowland is the current sitting member, and after an indifferent campaign in 2010, migration lawyer Jaymes Diaz is again contesting the seat. As we have seen, Diaz has moved from indifferent to embarrassing. </p>
<p>At the last election Tony Abbott railed against the NSW Liberal state machine for some of the candidates contesting marginal seats. Jaymes Diaz, who only achieved a modest swing against the backdrop of a big shift in voter sentiment to the Coalition, was clearly one of those who felt his ire. According to <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/family-rallies-round-dazed-aspirant-jaymes-diaz/story-fn9qr68y-1226694530758">The Australian</a>, Diaz’s father Jess, a Blacktown City councillor, holds sway in three local Liberal branches in Greenway (a claim that is denied), and Jaymes Diaz has once again emerged triumphant over a strong field to contest the seat for the Coalition.</p>
<p>The Liberal Party’s campaign in the seat could hardly have had a worse start after Diaz <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/diaz-and-confused-candidate-misses-the-points-20130806-2rb1v.html">fluffed his lines badly</a> during an interview with Channel Ten that provided the campaign with its first major gaffe. Under repeated questioning over the Coalition’s plans to “stop the boats”, Diaz stumbled repeatedly before being ushered towards a nearby car park by his minder. </p>
<p>Despite this setback, polls suggest the seat, like many in western Sydney, is likely to fall to the Coalition. The ALP has responded by flicking the switch to personal and unleashed its own letter bombing campaign, <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/west/greenway-election-fight-gets-personal-for-liberal-jaymes-diaz/story-fngr8i5s-1226704435006">claiming</a> Diaz has recently lived in a luxury city apartment he still owns.</p>
<p>The flyer goes on to claim that Diaz has attempted to conceal his work as a migration lawyer - a line of work seemingly at odds with the Coalition’s hardline policy against asylum seekers. Diaz has responded by employing the ultimate small target strategy: being a <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/sixpoint8217-jaymes-diaz-a-no-show-at-greenway-election-forum/story-fni0cx12-1226705326819">no-show</a> at a public forum in Blacktown in the penultimate week of the election. </p>
<p>Despite the many needs and great potential of the electorate, it seems like they have only been served dirty tricks and seven second grabs. And like the rest of us, it will be poorer for it no matter who wins the election.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17051/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Arvanitakis receives funding from Australian Research Council and the Office of Learning and Teaching as part of being named Prime Minister's University Teacher of the Year (2012).</span></em></p>The ultra-marginal seat of Greenway in Sydney’s western suburbs has recently drawn international scrutiny after the embarrassing media performance of the Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz, who faltered when…James Arvanitakis, Lecturer in Cultural and Social Analysis, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/173792013-08-29T20:23:44Z2013-08-29T20:23:44ZBoothby not yet a likely proposition for Labor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29900/original/djvgvvwz-1377484278.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Boothby MP Andrew Southcott will likely ride the wave of a national swing towards to the Liberals to return him to parliament in the Coalition's most marginal electorate.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p><a href="http://www.mumble.com.au/fedelect13/wall/seats/BOOT.HTM">Boothby</a>, the most marginal Liberal-held seat in this election, is a demographically solid part of middle-class Australia. Held by the Liberal Party since 1949, it is only since 2004 that Boothby has slipped to marginal status and been accordingly viewed by Labor as a winnable seat. </p>
<p>Located across Adelaide’s <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/Redistributions/2011/sa/files/maps/boothby.pdf">inner southern suburbs</a>, the electorate also includes town booths in the Adelaide Hills where, in a number of instances, the Greens attracted support from a quarter of voters in 2010. </p>
<p>The incumbent, Andrew Southcott, has seen his first preference support slowly and fairly consistently erode since he first won the seat in 1996. This is likely to be what encouraged Labor candidate <a href="http://www.annabeldigance.com.au">Annabel Digance</a> to make a second attempt at breaking the Liberal Party’s decades-long grip on Boothby.</p>
<p>Southcott currently defends a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/boot/">narrow 0.6%</a> two party preferred margin. It was <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-182.htm">0.75% after the 2010 election</a>, but a boundary change swept a couple of Labor-oriented suburbs into Boothby.</p>
<p>With the support of Green preferences - and they ran at 90% in Labor’s favour in 2010 - Digance is hopeful and can claim to have built a reasonable local profile after running in 2010 with a positive 1.6% swing compared to Labor’s statewide negative 2.4% swing. </p>
<p>However, former prime minister Julia Gillard’s <a href="http://www.murrayvalleystandard.com.au/story/1311261/julia-gillard-hosts-community-cabinet-in-boothby/">childhood links</a> to Boothby - and the resultant frequent prime ministerial visits during last campaign - no doubt played a part in lifting Labor’s vote.</p>
<p>Digance is backed by the Labor Unity faction, and is in many respects an ideal candidate for a marginal seat. A midwife by profession, she has worked in a family business with her husband, has three daughters and is clearly very committed to serving the public. This was evident when we discussed the trials and tribulations of campaigning. </p>
<p>Like many candidates, they enjoy happy working and family lives and can well do without the hard slog of campaigning. </p>
<p>Southcott gave up a career in medicine when he defeated then-senator Robert Hill for preselection in 1994 in what was a typically acrimonious South Australian Liberal factional battle. Apparently, it was his brilliant speech to party faithful that won the day. It transpired that Hill would go on to serve in senior Howard government ministries, while the exceptionally well-educated Southcott (MD, MBA and BEc) was overlooked. </p>
<p>Southcott has previously faced criticism that his campaign required bailing out in 2010 because his fundraising efforts were considered poor. This prompted a <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/marginal-mp-benefits-from-labor-tension-as-libs-fear-change/story-e6frgczx-1226282063536">preselection challenge</a> in February 2012 where he managed to defeat former Liberal state branch president Chris Moriarty 195 votes to 35.</p>
<p>In 2004, Labor candidate and current state MP Chloe Fox managed to gain <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-12246-182.htm">close to a 10% swing</a> on first preferences, and so began Labor’s commitment to winning Boothby. Labor believes Southcott is vulnerable because he does not work hard enough in the electorate and they view his declining vote as evidence. </p>
<p>Confident in their judgement, the state Labor Unity faction - led by senator Don Farrell and former state treasurer Kevin Foley - selected a quasi-celebrity candidate, Nicole Cornes, to run against Southcott in 2007. This venture came <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s1913918.htm">awfully unstuck</a>. Ultimately, one could only feel sorry for Cornes who, while working hard as the candidate, faced a very hostile local media and little prior coaching from those who figured she would make an ideal candidate.</p>
<p>Southcott concedes in conversation that given the national mood for change in 2007, a stronger Labor candidate may well have seen him seeking new employment. But he is also keen to note the comparative point highlighted in the chart below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29853/original/hghhgfvw-1377418309.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29853/original/hghhgfvw-1377418309.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29853/original/hghhgfvw-1377418309.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29853/original/hghhgfvw-1377418309.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29853/original/hghhgfvw-1377418309.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=364&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29853/original/hghhgfvw-1377418309.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29853/original/hghhgfvw-1377418309.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29853/original/hghhgfvw-1377418309.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=457&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Liberal first preferences in Boothby have declined steadily, but so too did the statewide Liberal vote. This looks set to reverse in 2013 due to the national mood against Labor which, if the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013">most recent Newspoll</a> ends up being reflected on polling day, indicates that South Australian swinging voters are rather keen to elect a Coalition government.</p>
<p>It is worth noting an interesting development concerning social media and how it may impact on campaigning. Digance has a loyal and enthusiastic band of volunteers whose job it is to demonise and smear the opposition, as it is in all close-fought campaigns. However, problems arise when this bubbles up into the tweet and, all of a sudden, an emotive outburst makes the headlines and subsequently derails the campaign. </p>
<p>When news broke that Digance’s deputy campaign manager Tim Picton - whose day job is working as a ministerial advisor - tweeted a journalist with “the rumour” that Southcott was <a href="http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/special-features/boothby-tweets-raise-a-stink/story-fnho52jl-1226691902777">holidaying in Fiji</a>, one feels for a candidate who has given up so much in pursuit of a dream.</p>
<p>It cannot be determined whether or not this was a deliberate ploy or a silly lapse in judgement. Digance says she did not approve it and premier Jay Weatherill offered an awkward apology which essentially said it was not acceptable, but all parties do it. </p>
<p>Southcott was understandably angry but says he will not take advantage of his opponent’s embarrassment. Clearly, this is something that reflects his confidence in being returned for a sixth term.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17379/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Haydon Manning does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Boothby, the most marginal Liberal-held seat in this election, is a demographically solid part of middle-class Australia. Held by the Liberal Party since 1949, it is only since 2004 that Boothby has slipped…Haydon Manning, Associate Professor, Politics and Public Policy, Flinders UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/171142013-08-28T20:28:04Z2013-08-28T20:28:04ZRedistributions will make McEwen a safer Labor prospect<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29563/original/fvqshxg3-1376971949.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">After winning it in 2010, Labor MP Rob Mitchell is looking to hang on to his Victorian seat of McEwen despite an expected swing against the ALP.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Victorian federal electorate of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/vic/mcewen.htm">McEwen</a> was a hard seat for Labor to win during the Howard years thanks to the popularity of the then-incumbent Liberal MP, Fran Bailey. </p>
<p>But this year, due to major changes to its boundaries, Labor should be able to consolidate its hold on McEwen.</p>
<h2>History of victories</h2>
<p>McEwen was named after <a href="http://www.nma.gov.au/primeministers/john_mcewen">Sir John McEwen</a>, or “Black Jack” McEwen as he was known due to his ability to advance protectionist policies. McEwen was leader of the Country Party and became caretaker prime minister for 23 days after prime minister Harold Holt’s disappearance in 1967.</p>
<p>The district of McEwen was created in 1984 and was held by Labor until 1990 when it was won by Bailey. McEwen returned to Labor 1993 but in 1996 Bailey won the seat again and held it until 2010, though she did come very close to losing it in 2007, winning by <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-226.htm">just 31 votes</a>. In 2010, when Bailey retired, there was a strong swing to Labor and Rob Mitchell won the seat with a <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-226.htm">5.3% margin</a>.</p>
<h2>Redistribution in 2013</h2>
<p>The seat boundaries have been changed for the 2013 election. Previously, McEwen spanned the western and eastern areas north of Melbourne through central Victoria, covering Gisborne in the west to Warburton in the east.</p>
<p>The electorate has become more compact following the redistribution and <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/vic/files/2010/2010-aec-a4-map-vic-mcewen.pdf">now covers</a> a central corridor above Melbourne with the main towns being Wallan, Kilmore and Seymour. The suburbs of Sunbury and parts of Craigieburn comprise the southern part of the electorate.</p>
<p>The span of the electorate from the northern suburbs of Melbourne to parts of central Victoria means that there is great diversity in the district’s economic interests with cattle grazing and wool growing industries in its north alongside its manufacturing and commerce sectors of the south.</p>
<h2>Candidates</h2>
<p>The major party candidates are well known in the electorate and have served in local and state government. The incumbent, Labor’s Rob Mitchell, came close to defeating Bailey in 2007. He previously held an upper house seat in Victoria from 2002 to 2006 and has built a high public profile in the seat since winning in 2010.</p>
<p>The Liberal candidate, <a href="http://donnapetrovichformcewen.com.au/about-donna/">Donna Petrovich</a>, also has a high public profile built from her time as a former councillor and Mayor of the Shire of Macedon Ranges. She is currently in the Victorian upper house, representing Northern Victoria (she will resign this position to contest McEwen). Petrovich replaced local businessman Ben Collier as the party’s candidate in April after Collier <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/ben-collier-withdraws-candidacy-for-federal-seat-of-mcewen/story-e6frfkp9-1226615444071">decided not to contest</a> the election due to “unforeseen family circumstances”.</p>
<p>Seven other candidates are <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/mcew/">contesting</a>, representing parties including Katter’s Australian Party, the Palmer United Party and the Sex Party, though there are no independents running. The Greens are also contesting the seat following a strong showing in 2010. The party received the third highest primary vote behind the Labor and the Liberal candidates with 11.8%, and will be looking to consolidate its support base in 2013.</p>
<h2>Issues and election outcome</h2>
<p>The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) rates the seat as being rural with primary production its main industry. These are the areas that the Liberal Party has tried to galvanise with its policies, especially its opposition to the government’s carbon pricing scheme.</p>
<p>The southern parts of the seat that cover metropolitan suburbs such as Mernda comprise some very fast-growing new residential estates. The influx of new home owner-occupiers in these parts ensures that traditional election issues such as the economy and jobs become prominent throughout the campaign. Health care and education, also staples in campaigns, will also be important as growing populations necessitate growth in these service areas.</p>
<p>The major redistribution has worked in Labor’s favour by taking out Liberal voting areas while incorporating Labor parts in the south. In particular, the incorporation of northwestern Melbourne suburbs such as Sunbury and parts of Craigieburn has lifted Labor’s notional margin to 9.2%, which is categorised as “fairly safe” by the AEC. </p>
<p>With this buffer, observers can expect that the seat will be retained by Labor, even in the face of the expected moderate swing against the government in Victoria.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Zareh Ghazarian does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The Victorian federal electorate of McEwen was a hard seat for Labor to win during the Howard years thanks to the popularity of the then-incumbent Liberal MP, Fran Bailey. But this year, due to major changes…Zareh Ghazarian, Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/170102013-08-27T20:30:00Z2013-08-27T20:30:00ZThe ghost of Peter Slipper will still haunt Fisher<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29827/original/s9s6qp4s-1377259166.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former speaker Peter Slipper is virtually no chance to retain his Queensland seat of Fisher after a highly controversial last term in office.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dave Hunt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>A number of seats in Queensland may go a long way to deciding the outcome of the federal election. However, it is doubtful that <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/fisher.htm">the seat of Fisher</a>, located in the southern part of the Sunshine Coast, will be one of them. Instead, it will provide an interesting divergence given developments in the last parliamentary term.</p>
<p>Former Speaker of the House of Representatives <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=0V5">Peter Slipper</a> has been a constant presence in the seat of Fisher for nearly 30 years. He held the seat from 1984-1987 as a member of the National Party, before losing it to the ALP’s Michael Lavarch, later attorney-general under Paul Keating. </p>
<p>Slipper recaptured the seat in 1993, this time as a Liberal Party candidate. Before 2010, Slipper had been a fairly low-profile MP, barely noticed outside his local electorate. Despite the low profile, Slipper was re-elected on six consecutive occasions.</p>
<p>In 2010, Slipper gained national attention via a series of scandals. Local paper the Sunshine Coast Daily made substantial allegations against Slipper for <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/peter-slipper-expenses-sunshine-coast/603890/">misusing his parliamentary travel entitlements</a>. This scandal was compounded when Slipper was nominated unopposed to succeed Harry Jenkins as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-11-24/harry-jenkins-resigning/3690850">Speaker of the House</a> in November 2011. Concurrently, Slipper resigned from the Liberal Party. </p>
<p>Less than six months later, in April 2012, Slipper’s former staffer James Ashby <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-04-21/calls-for-slipper-to-stand-down-amid-harrassment-claims/3964486">claimed</a> that his boss was sexually harassing him. The subsequent court case led to Slipper <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-09/peter-slipper-resigns-as-speaker/4303966">resigning as Speaker</a>, and he returned to the backbench as an independent MP.</p>
<p>These developments have given the seat of Fisher a higher prominence than it has previously been accustomed to. Aside from Lavarach’s six year term during the Hawke-Keating years, the seat has always been held by conservative parties since its foundation in 1949, and this dominance was a foregone conclusion. </p>
<p>However, redistributions since 2007 have pushed the seat further south into the more working class areas of the Sunshine Coast Hinterland such as the Glasshouse Mountains and Kilcoy. This allowed Labor to make small but significant dents in Slipper’s comfortable margin, which the Liberals hold by a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/fish.htm">not insurmountable cushion of 4.1%</a>.</p>
<p>In the hopes of improving this margin, the Liberal Party endorsed former Howard government minister Mal Brough, who unsuccessfully <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/liberals-failed-attempt-have-slipper-disendorsed/609434/">tried to oust Slipper</a> as the Liberal Party candidate in 2010. Brough held Fisher’s neighbouring seat of Longman until he was surprisingly defeated in 2007 by uninspiring Labor candidate Jon Sullivan.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29828/original/f7nd3kfg-1377259941.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29828/original/f7nd3kfg-1377259941.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29828/original/f7nd3kfg-1377259941.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29828/original/f7nd3kfg-1377259941.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=800&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29828/original/f7nd3kfg-1377259941.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29828/original/f7nd3kfg-1377259941.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29828/original/f7nd3kfg-1377259941.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1005&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Former Howard government minister Mal Brough will likely return to parliament as the MP for Fisher.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Petrina Berry</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Throughout Slipper’s tenure, the ALP have struggled to maintain a significant presence in the electorate. Despite winning the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/guide/kawa.htm">state seat of Kawana</a> (which encompasses a significant part of the Fisher electorate) in 2001 and 2004 during the height of Peter Beattie’s dominance, the ALP failed to transfer this success to a federal level. </p>
<p>This time around, Labor have pre-selected Bill Gissane, who has little name recognition in the electorate and will struggle to get any coverage during the campaign, which will be (and has already been) <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/clive-takes-on-mal-over-ashby-cash/1993757">dominated by the personalities of Slipper and Brough</a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, the minor parties also suffer from these difficulties. In Fisher, the Greens could benefit from a lack of choice on their side of the ideological spectrum. Katter’s Australian Party, on the other hand, is a chance to capture the votes of disaffected ALP voters in the Hinterland booths who are unmoved by the Greens. </p>
<p>The Palmer United Party remain an unknown quantity in terms of voting percentage, and Palmer may have been better suited to run in Fisher where the media attention would have been greater than in its northern neighbour, Fairfax, where he is a candidate. Based on previous elections, however, the minor parties are unlikely to have a significant impact on the result.</p>
<p>A point of interest though will be how high Slipper will poll. Without the Liberal Party brand, Slipper’s vote as an independent candidate will be purely based on personal appeal. The Sunshine Coast Daily’s <a href="http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/slipper-pulls-on-running-shoes/1983274/">recent poll</a> (taken before he announced his candidacy) had Slipper on a exceptionally low 0.5%. Though he will poll higher than this, the ceiling of his vote is difficult to calculate given that Slipper now has a volatile relationship with voters.</p>
<p>This plays into the broader narrative that Fisher will have on election night. The result seems clear cut, but the intrigue lies elsewhere. The Liberals will likely retain Fisher. However, all eyes will be on how Slipper accepts defeat and whether he will choose to go quietly or make one final ripple in the electorate he has been linked with for decades.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17010/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Todd Winther was a Member of the ALP in the Fisher electorate until he resigned in August of 2011.</span></em></p>A number of seats in Queensland may go a long way to deciding the outcome of the federal election. However, it is doubtful that the seat of Fisher, located in the southern part of the Sunshine Coast, will…Todd Winther, PhD Candidate in Political Science, Griffith UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/172282013-08-26T20:19:25Z2013-08-26T20:19:25ZIndi and the politics of personality<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29744/original/zt7ks4nf-1377152844.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Coalition frontbencher Sophie Mirabella has an unexpected fight on her hands is to retain her rural Victorian electorate of Indi.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/vic/files/2010/2010-aec-a4-map-vic-indi.pdf">federal Victorian seat of Indi</a> covers a major part of Victoria’s northeast. The Hume Highway and the Melbourne-to-Sydney railway run through the electorate’s demographic centre and at various points intersect the major population centres of Benalla, Wangaratta and Wodonga, just south of Albury and the NSW border. </p>
<p>The sprawling electorate predominantly relies on agriculture, but its economy is supplemented by tourism from the nearby Hume and Dartmouth dams Lake Eildon and the northeast alpine region, administrative services and education. </p>
<p>The median family income of the seat is <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED221">A$936 per week</a>, well below the state-wide median of $1216 per week. Within its nearly 98,000 enrolled voters, 20- to 30-year-olds are under-represented, while the 86% who are Australian-born is well above the state-wide figure of 69%.</p>
<p>Indi is a rural seat typical of those found among the Liberal Party’s safer divisions. It is currently on a two-party preferred margin of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/indi.htm">close to 10%</a>, although the seat was held by the National (formerly Country) Party from 1958 to 1977. </p>
<p>In 1977, Liberal candidate E.C. Cameron won the seat in a “three-cornered” contest (between the Liberals, the ALP and the then-Country Party), and Indi has been in Liberal hands ever since. The Liberal Party’s grip can only be partially attributed to the Coalition agreement. When Cameron retired in 1993, his Liberal successor Lou Lieberman and subsequently the current sitting member, Sophie Mirabella (née Panopoulos), had to battle with Labor and the National Party as well as other minor parties and independents to win it. </p>
<p>When she won the seat in 2001, Mirabella secured 40.1% of the primary vote to the Nationals’ 12.3%. It is interesting to note that while Liberal candidates outpoll their National rivals in Indi on those occasions when a National candidate can run under the terms of the Coalition agreement, National candidates tend to outdo their Liberal counterparts in the concomitant state districts of Murray Valley and Benalla (but not Benambra in the far northeast, which remains a Liberal stronghold). </p>
<p>Indi is not a marginal seat, the potential for the Liberal and National parties to have a go at each other notwithstanding. As a sitting member and a shadow minister in a party that appears to be on its way back to government, one could expect Mirabella to win with an increased majority. Even so, an element of doubt has crept into the contest with the nomination of an independent candidate, <a href="http://www.cathymcgowan.com.au/">Cathy McGowan</a>. </p>
<p>McGowan is a former Liberal Party member - she worked for E.C. Cameron - with a strong local profile. She has gained the attention of the local media not least because of the enthusiasm with which some of her campaign events in the major population centres have been met. </p>
<p>The viability of McGowan’s candidacy appears to have been enhanced by two other important developments: first, the Labor Party, which tends to poll around 27% in this seat, is indicating that it will <a href="http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2013/08/19/579950_politics-news.html">direct preferences to McGowan</a>. There are also rumours that local Nationals, aggrieved at the Liberal Party’s decision to run a candidate against the Nationals’ high-profile candidate <a href="http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/1432051/nationals-give-andrew-broad-the-nod/">Andrew Broad</a> in Mallee, are <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/mirabella-at-risk-in-three-corner-revenge/story-e6frfkp9-1226698074667">aligning themselves</a> with McGowan. </p>
<p>The theory goes that the support of National voters in the seat combined with the shift of Labor and Liberal voters could push McGowan ahead of Labor in the count and allow her to overtake Mirabella with Labor preferences. Support for Mirabella measured in a <a href="http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/fairfax-media-indi-poll-15august2013">recent ReachTEL poll</a> had the Liberal vote at 43%, McGowan on 23% and Labor candidate Robyn Walsh on 17%. On these figures, the outcome would be close and McGowan would be in with a chance of pinching the seat.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=330&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29798/original/7h94qzt8-1377232783.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=414&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sophie Mirabella is being challenged a strong local independent candidate, Cathy McGowan, for her seat of Indi.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Twitter</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>While strong independent campaigns in rural districts are not unknown in Australian politics, McGowan’s momentum is a little surprising given the poor press received by rural independents in the advent of the minority Labor government that depended on Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott for its survival. One might have thought the time was hardly opportune for another aspiring rural independent seeking to win support from traditionally strong Liberal voters if the last time rural independents held the balance of power it resulted in a Labor government.</p>
<p>Other manifestations of rural unrest - such as the rise of One Nation in 1998 - coincided with a period of Coalition government and a strong sense of rural dissatisfaction with the Howard government’s policy approach. McGowan’s campaign rhetoric is full of reference to notions of rural disadvantage but it is Labor, not the Liberal Party, that has been the party of government. Therefore Mirabella, as a shadow minister, has not been in charge of any policies that might affect her constituents directly. </p>
<p>With the exception of the role being played by strains in the Liberal-National coalition arrangement in Victorian state politics, the only other explanation for the momentum behind McGowan’s candidature is that it is primarily a personal campaign against Mirabella. This is presumably due to more than dissatisfaction with her role as the shadow industry minister or her contributions to national policy debate. </p>
<p>This contest will give an insight into the extent to which personality politics can displace party identity as a driver of voter choice. Mirabella is the sitting Liberal member in a strong Liberal-voting seat. There can be no National candidate as a result of the federal Coalition agreement, and the national polls are showing that voters are aligning themselves to the Coalition to vote the Labor party out of government. Given all of this, Mirabella ought to win Indi and win it very comfortably. </p>
<p>If, however, McGowan were to win Indi, this conventional approach to electoral behaviour would have to be re-thought. As a result, more weight would have to be attached to the politics of personality conflict as an influence in electoral contests, for this is what the campaign for Indi has become. </p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17228/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Economou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The federal Victorian seat of Indi covers a major part of Victoria’s northeast. The Hume Highway and the Melbourne-to-Sydney railway run through the electorate’s demographic centre and at various points…Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/168572013-08-25T20:25:27Z2013-08-25T20:25:27ZChalk the seat of Perth up to a likely Labor win<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29534/original/9y3np57f-1376916625.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Alannah MacTiernan has been preselected for the ALP in the seat of Perth - one of the few the party hold in WA - to replace retiring defence minister Stephen Smith.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Rebecca Le May</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The federal seat of Perth is one of only three federal electorates currently held by Labor in Western Australia. Retaining this seat is critical if Labor is to avoid complete oblivion in the west.</p>
<p>The seat of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/federal/2013/guide/maps/pert.pdf">Perth</a> is an inner metropolitan electorate spanning approximately 78 sq km. The division stretches across all or parts of 26 suburbs, and takes in the capital’s CBD and commercial and professional districts. According to 2011 Australian Bureau of Statistics <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED512">Census data</a>, Perth is above average for both the state and nationally in terms of median weekly personal incomes, educational qualifications, and people from professional occupations.</p>
<p>Since 1901, the seat has been served by nine members, three of whom have had the distinction of ministerial service. Frederick Chaney Snr was Minister for Navy in the Menzies Liberal government (1955-1969), Joseph Berinson briefly held the environment portfolio in the Whitlam ALP government (1955-1969), and most recently <a href="http://www.aph.gov.au/Senators_and_Members/Parliamentarian?MPID=5V5">Stephen Smith</a>, who served as Minister for Defence in the Rudd and Gillard ALP governments before <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-27/stephen-smith-to-retire-from-politics/4785742?section=wa">announcing his retirement</a> from politics in June.</p>
<p>There is another member who is also worthy of a mention, albeit for a different reason. Between 1922 and 1928, the seat was occupied by <a href="http://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/mann-edward-alexander-7472">Edward Mann</a>. Political tragics may be aware that Mann was responsible for steering the Electoral Act (1924) through federal parliament, establishing compulsory voting.</p>
<p>The seat of Perth has had something of a lumpy electoral history. It has been subject to frequent redistributions, with the result that it has vacillated between the ALP and conservative parties at different periods. Since 1983, however, it has been held continuously by the ALP when Ric Charlesworth captured the seat from Liberal Ross McLean, who held the seat between 1975 and 1983. In 1993, Charlesworth was succeeded by Smith.</p>
<p>The seat is currently held by Labor on a two-party-preferred <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-245.htm">margin of 5.9%</a>. Although the margin is much healthier than in either <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/wa/fremantle.htm">Fremantle</a> or <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/wa/brand.htm">Brand</a>, it is still uncomfortably slim given the electoral mood.</p>
<p>Western Australian voters have what can only be described as a torrid relationship with federal Labor. Apart from a brief but intense love affair with Labor in the early 1980s, WA voters have shown a remarkable lack of enthusiasm for the party at nearly every subsequent election. Since 1990, Labor’s share of the statewide primary vote has never exceeded 40%, dropping as low as <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/sop.htm#WA">31.2% in 2010</a>.</p>
<p>Given the strong anti-Labor predilection in WA, news of Smith’s retirement was greeted with some trepidation within Labor ranks. Although Smith’s primary vote took a battering in 2010, it was expected that his high profile would be sufficient to ensure the retention of the seat.</p>
<p>Labor has responded to the challenge posed by Smith’s retirement by preselecting <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-05/alannah-mactiernan---not-too-old/4802382">Alannah MacTiernan</a> to run in his stead. Although MacTiernan is not likely to be well known outside of WA, she enjoys strong name recognition within her home state. MacTiernan served in the WA Legislative Assembly between 1996 and 2010, seven or so of those years as a minister.</p>
<p>In 2010, MacTiernan exited state parliament in order to run against the Liberal incumbent, Don Randall, in the federal seat of Canning. It had been widely speculated that MacTiernan’s decision to vacate state parliament was helped along when her caucus colleagues overlooked her for the leadership of the state parliamentary Labor Party.</p>
<p>Although MacTiernan <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/cann.htm">failed to take the seat</a> from Randall, she has never been far from headlines. Earlier this year, she gained national attention when she called for Julia Gillard to <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/get-rid-of-julia-gillard-says-former-labor-state-minister-alannah-mactiernan/story-e6frfkp9-1226593998134">stand aside</a> as leader of the federal parliamentary party.</p>
<p>MacTiernan’s straight talking approach will most likely enhance her appeal to Perth voters. MacTiernan is also a battle-hardened campaigner. She was the only ALP candidate in WA to record a positive swing at the 2010 election. MacTiernan’s <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/stephen-smith-to-head-up-alannah-mactiernans-campaign-for-seat-of-perth/story-fnhocxo3-1226675552616">campaign</a> will be further served by Smith’s role as campaign director.</p>
<p>MacTiernan’s prospects will be further bolstered by two additional factors. First, the return of Rudd as prime minister seems to have improved <a href="http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/morgan-poll-states-ages-june-27-2013-201306270610">Labor’s standing</a> in WA. </p>
<p>Also, the Liberal state government has had a difficult time lately. Economic growth in the state is slowing and commodity prices are weakening, which has had the effect of plunging the WA budget into additional deficit. The state is reportedly <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-affairs/heat-goes-out-of-resources-investment/story-fn59niix-1226693872693">facing the prospect</a> of losing its AAA credit rating. State debt is expected to rise to A$28.4 billion by the 2016-17 financial year. While the conventional wisdom is that voters are good at distinguishing the actions of one level of government from the other, it doesn’t hurt Labor if the state Liberals are struggling.</p>
<p>There is also reason to believe that the Liberals have never truly considered Perth to be winnable. If they did, then they may have opted to install a more high profile contestant to the seat. Instead, the Liberals pre-selected <a href="http://www.wa.liberal.org.au/representative-full/962">Darryl Moore</a>, who only joined the party in 2010.</p>
<p>The seat of Perth is shaping up to be a fairly safe proposition for Labor.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16857/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliiotta is currently a Visiting Research Associate in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Western Australia.</span></em></p>The federal seat of Perth is one of only three federal electorates currently held by Labor in Western Australia. Retaining this seat is critical if Labor is to avoid complete oblivion in the west. The…Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/170892013-08-22T20:23:11Z2013-08-22T20:23:11ZPut Bass down as a Coalition win<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29657/original/d8963yzd-1377061921.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal candidate Andrew Nikolic looks likely to claim the Tasmanian seat of Bass from sitting Labor MP Geoff Lyons.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>If the early polls were accurate, Bass was already lost for Labor’s Geoff Lyons, the sitting member, but recent gaffes by Lyons will probably make that certain.</p>
<p>Lyons has been left with egg on his face after he thought it might enhance his election prospects if he questioned the military record of his Liberal opponent, Andrew Nikolic. Lyons <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/labor-mp-geoff-lyons-insults-former-soldier-turned-star-liberal-candidate-andrew-nikolic/story-fnho52ip-1226697418858">suggested</a> Nikolic had been a “bureaucrat” in Canberra for “the last 25 years”, and had “misled” the media about his military service. </p>
<p>Nikolic, a former army brigadier, was Australia’s first armed forces commander in southern Iraq in 2005 in a distinguished military career. He was made a Member of the Order of Australia in 2010. Lyons apologised via the media, and Nikolic has been keen to report his opponent has failed to attend a number of debating forums in Bass since this error of judgement.</p>
<p>To add salt to an already gaping wound, the ABC <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-21/bass-mp-caught-out-in-medal-claim/4901042?section=tas">reported</a> that Lyons was forced to change his website after incorrectly claiming he held the Emergency Services Medal. He actually held the National Medal for his services as a surf lifesaver as well the Australian Government Sports Medal.</p>
<p>On his first campaign trip to Bass, opposition leader Tony Abbott <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/tony-abbott-unveils-plan-to-lift-tasmania-out-of-the-economic-doldums/story-e6frfkp9-1226697572826">declared</a> that Bass was “vital” to a Coalition victory. He may not need to return to shore up Nikolic’s victory.</p>
<p>Prime minister Kevin Rudd might not see any value in pulling against gravity in Bass. The north and northeastern Tasmanian <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/tas/bass.htm">electorate of Bass</a>, centred on the city of Launceston and stretching from the Tamar estuary to the northeast coast, still craves the sort of national attention and acclaim it once had as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bass_by-election,_1975">famous by-election result</a> that heralded the end of Gough Whitlam’s government in 1975. </p>
<p>Bass didn’t return a Labor member until 1993 when the swing in Tasmania – still on daylight saving time and an hour ahead of mainland counting – suggested an improbable win for Paul Keating’s Labor government.</p>
<p>Since 1993, only Labor’s Michelle O’Byrne has held the seat in successive elections (1998 and 2001). Liberal Michael Ferguson won the seat in 2004, Labor’s Jodie Campbell took it back in 2007 and Labor’s Geoff Lyons won in 2010.</p>
<p>If Nikolic wins in Bass – and no published polling suggests otherwise – it will be some accomplishment on the back of an appalling Tasmanian electoral performance by the Liberals at the 2010 election. Across Tasmania, the Liberal vote <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/sop.htm#TAS">fell by 4.6%</a> against a national swing against Labor of 5.4%.</p>
<p>Lyons is recontesting the seat on the back of a <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-192.htm">5.7% swing to Labor</a> in 2010 on a two-party-preferred vote basis. However, that comfortable margin doesn’t appear sufficient enough for Labor to retain the seat.</p>
<p>ReachTEL has conducted two polls in Bass for The Examiner newspaper this year: one in <a href="http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1257547/poll-tips-libs-in-a-bass-landslide/">January</a> and one in <a href="http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1667658/state-landslide-tipped-for-liberals/">late July</a>. The January poll suggested a 60-40 two-party-preferred win to the Liberals and the July poll reiterated that result with a 55-45 result.</p>
<p>Lyons and Nikolic will face off against <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/bass/">five other hopefuls</a> in Bass. Candidates from the Australian Christians, the Palmer United Party, Family First, the Greens and the Secular Party of Australia will contest the seat.</p>
<p>Bass is an electorate that has endured much of the Tasmanian socioeconomic uncertainty driven by a range of structural changes in key, traditional economy sectors such as forestry and manufacturing. The city of Launceston accounts for much of the economic activity in Bass, and <a href="http://www.examiner.com.au/story/1365756/two-speed-economy-cant-be-sustained/">recorded a loss of 432 jobs</a> between the 2006 and 2011 Census periods. Much of this was attributable to job losses in forestry and manufacturing.</p>
<p>The flow-on and multiplier effect in a regional electorate with significant networks of employment connected to larger enterprise activity has been devastating, with the municipalities of Dorset and Break O’Day in the northeast of the electorate being particularly hard hit. Manufacturing in the Tamar Valley continues to decline with closures pending, such as car parts maker <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-30/car-parts-maker-closes-doors2c-135-jobs-lost/4853524">ACL Bearings</a> in Launceston in 2014. There is also uncertainty about long term futures for Pacific Aluminium’s <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/07/27/384385_tasmania-news.html">Bell Bay Plant</a> and <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/business/hundreds-of-jobs-at-risk-at-bhp-plant-20120223-1tp77.html">BHP’s TEMCO Manganese plant</a>. </p>
<p>Bass has significant pockets of relatively high levels of socio-economic disadvantage. The 2011 Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mediareleasesbyReleaseDate/DAFCB26CFB3952E5CA257B3B001AF712?OpenDocument">placed two Bass municipalities</a>, George Town (at the mouth of the Tamar Estuary) and Break O’Day, as consistently low performers across the four SEIFA indexes.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate in northern Tasmania (7.7% in the July 2013 <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6202.0">labour force figures</a>) has risen since the 2010 federal election. However, these numbers for the northern region are lower than <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/08/08/385235_tasmania-news.html">Tasmania’s high 8.4% rate</a>. Bass claims Launceston as the enterprise capital of Tasmania, and these are bad numbers ahead of an election campaign.</p>
<p>Labor will lose two seats in Tasmania on September 7 – Bass and Braddon. Why? There is a persistent, deep-seated level of overlapping dissatisfaction with state and federal minority governments in these northern electorates.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17089/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony McCall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>If the early polls were accurate, Bass was already lost for Labor’s Geoff Lyons, the sitting member, but recent gaffes by Lyons will probably make that certain. Lyons has been left with egg on his face…Tony McCall, Senior Lecturer, Politics and International Relations Program, School of Social Sciences, , University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/170582013-08-21T20:30:36Z2013-08-21T20:30:36ZA loss in Oxley could spell disaster for Labor<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29582/original/btby247v-1376982366.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Labor MP Bernie Ripoll is expected to be returned in the Queensland seat of Oxley in September unless a seismic shift against the ALP in the state.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The fate of the federal Queensland seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/oxley.htm">Oxley</a> in the 2013 election will provide some clues to the Labor Party’s long term future. If Labor loses Oxley, it is in serious trouble.</p>
<p>The seat includes traditional Labor strongholds such as the housing commission suburb of Inala, as well as more affluent and aspirational areas such as Jindalee and Mount Ommaney. Votes from booths in the latter suburbs usually favour the Coalition while those from working areas such as Inala have traditionally gone to Labor.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2012/guide/inal.htm">state seat of Inala</a> - which covers parts of Oxley - was one of only seven seats retained by Labor in the 2012 state election. However, as that election demonstrated, the ALP can no longer succeed by relying on the votes of a dwindling working class base. It must retain these votes but also win the support of a wider cross section of voters such as those from Oxley’s middle class suburbs, which traditionally vote LNP. </p>
<p>Bernie Ripoll holds Oxley for Labor on a <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-174.htm">margin of 5.8%</a>, not enough to quell Labor nerves regarding the seat’s fate. The ALP should retain it, but in the event of a major swing against the party, the famed 1975 result is unlikely to be repeated. In that election, the member for Oxley, Bill Hayden, was the only federal Labor representative left in the state after Queensland turned against the Whitlam government.</p>
<p>Hayden went on to lead the party until he was replaced by Bob Hawke in 1983. Like former prime minister Julia Gillard, Hayden departed the leadership quietly, served in Hawke’s cabinet as Minister for Foreign Affairs and was rewarded with the governor-general’s job in 1988.</p>
<p>Oxley’s other famous MP was Pauline Hanson, a disendorsed Liberal who won the seat in 1996 with a massive swing against Labor of more than 19%. She went on to found Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party, and abandoned Oxley for Blair in 1998 after a redistribution removed much of her support base. She lost Blair but went on to become a serial, but so far unsuccessful candidate for re-election to federal parliament. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29585/original/sjx2yxzd-1376982830.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29585/original/sjx2yxzd-1376982830.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29585/original/sjx2yxzd-1376982830.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29585/original/sjx2yxzd-1376982830.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=851&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29585/original/sjx2yxzd-1376982830.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29585/original/sjx2yxzd-1376982830.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29585/original/sjx2yxzd-1376982830.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1069&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Pauline Hanson may have only been a one term MP in Oxley, but she left an indelible mark on the seat and Australian politics.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Tracey Nearmy</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A series of redistributions has seen Oxley’s centre of gravity move from Ipswich to the outer suburbs of Ipswich and Brisbane. The seat has also lost its rural hinterland, where Hanson derived much of her support. The last redistribution in 2009 made it less secure for Labor.</p>
<p>French-born Ripoll won the seat for the ALP in 1998 and has been returned four times since, giving him time to build a personal vote. Currently, he is the Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasurer and Parliamentary Secretary for Small Business. He voted for Julia Gillard in the June leadership ballot against Kevin Rudd. When Rudd was successful, Rippoll - perhaps prematurely - <a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/gillard-supporter-concedes-rudd-game-changer-20130627-2ozzx.html">declared Rudd’s elevation</a> to the prime ministership a “game changer”. </p>
<p>His LNP rival is Andrew Nguyen, the son of Vietnamese refugees, former student politician and policy adviser to Brisbane’s Lord Mayor. Nguyen had a brief moment in the spotlight when he pleaded guilty to <a href="http://www.qt.com.au/news/lnp-sign-stealer-fightson-in-oxley/1986258/">stealing Labor Party election signs</a> in 2009. </p>
<p>Candidates from the Greens, the Democratic Labor Party, Katter’s Australian Party, Rise Up Australia, the Palmer United Party and Australia First are <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/oxle/">also standing</a> in Oxley. The Greens do not perform particularly well in outer suburban seats such as this one, but some of the other minor parties should do comparatively well.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/SSC31277">Oxley</a> has Queensland’s highest proportion of couple households with dependent children and slightly above the national average for mortgaged dwellings. The electorate is divided between industrial areas and swathes of suburbia. This means that economic issues are likely to be the dominant factor influencing voters.</p>
<p>Both candidates have focused strongly on infrastructure particularly the Ipswich to Brisbane motorway, a frequently gridlocked commuter road that cuts through the electorate. Ripoll has also <a href="http://www.alp.org.au/cm5_080813">highlighted</a> the rollout of the National Broadband Network, with parts of Oxley among the first Brisbane regions to be connected. Nguyen has <a href="https://www.lnp.org.au/campaign/candidates/andrew-nguyen/">argued</a> that scrapping the carbon tax will help local business.</p>
<p>Neither campaign has set the world on fire. After September 7, Bernie Ripoll is likely to commence a sixth term as the member for Oxley. If his margin is much reduced - or if he loses - the ALP will need to give serious thought to the future. It will need to ask how it can retain, recapture or attract the support of voters in seats like Oxley.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/17058/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rae Wear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The fate of the federal Queensland seat of Oxley in the 2013 election will provide some clues to the Labor Party’s long term future. If Labor loses Oxley, it is in serious trouble. The seat includes traditional…Rae Wear, Senior Lecturer in Political Science, The University of QueenslandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/169602013-08-20T20:26:23Z2013-08-20T20:26:23ZGrayndler out of the mix for the Greens<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29408/original/8jxvm2tn-1376631788.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese will likely hold off a push from the Greens to claim his inner city Sydney seat of Grayndler.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Paul Miller</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The ALP is set to retain deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese’s seat of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Grayndler">Grayndler</a> following the Liberal Party’s decision to <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-power-of-liberal-preferences-how-will-it-impact-on-the-greens-17036">preference Labor over the Greens</a> in the 2013 election. While the Greens made a <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-121.htm">strong showing in 2010</a> with a two-party preferred vote of 45.8%, Albanese’s margin of 4.2% is considerably strengthened by the Greens’ dependence on preferences from the Liberal Party who poll about one-quarter of the primary vote in Grayndler.</p>
<p>Grayndler, a tight little 32 square kilometre bundle of suburbs in Sydney’s inner west, is an area that has undergone waves of change since its establishment post-war. Originally a working-class electorate filled with small, tightly-packed houses, its central suburb of Marrickville was first a centre of post-war southern European immigration, and latterly of Asian settlement in the 1970s and beyond.</p>
<p>The electorate is interesting in that it is a family affair and a haven for deputy leadership. Albanese’s wife Carmel Tebbutt represents the state seat of <a href="http://www.pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SGE2011/la/la_district_summary-Marrickville.htm">Marrickville</a> (and is a former deputy premier of NSW), while Linda Burney, the state MP for <a href="http://www.pastvtr.elections.nsw.gov.au/SGE2011/la/la_district_summary-Canterbury.htm">Canterbury</a>, is the current deputy opposition leader. As such, it has all the hallmarks of a Labor stronghold.</p>
<p>Its status as a former migrant electorate is still clear in that <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED118">more than half</a> of the electorate had both parents born overseas. However, as the cost of housing continues to increase in the area, this first generation of migrants is being replaced by renovators and young professionals. The current period of extended low interest rates has traction with this group, being a proxy for government economic management.</p>
<p>The electorate has 13% more professionals than the national average, with a corresponding impact on average income and lattes per capita consumed (both well above the national average). This does, however, tend to sit across a gradient from the fashionable east to the more suburban west.</p>
<p>Within the ALP, Albanese is considered to be a good local campaigner, willing to husband his resources carefully to protect his base. Both Albanese and Tebbutt are well recognised figures in the electorate, with a strong local presence and a part of the local school community. ALP investment in schools infrastructure is therefore an area of past performance that Albanese is able to highlight in his campaign. </p>
<p>Interestingly, in flagging his <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/stylists-say-new-deputy-prime-minister-anthony-albanese-has-undergone-makeover/story-fnho52ip-1226675624668">cultural Catholicism</a> recently and yet with a record as a strong supporter of the GLBTI community, Albanese manages to bridge well the considerable differences between the inner city suburbs and the outer ones in Grayndler. He is in a good position to strategically use the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-12/gay-marriage-advocates-welcome-rudds-pledge/4880090">recent announcement</a> of prime minister Kevin Rudd of a bill recognising same-sex marriage in the first 100 days of a re-elected Labor government.</p>
<p>The Greens are fielding a strong candidate for the seat, <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/vision-of-turning-albaneses-seat-into-greenland/story-e6frfkp9-1226675081424">Hall Greenland</a>. Greenland has a background in both community organising and running campaigns against high-rise development. This is an issue that mobilises his party base, while running up against a general push by the state government to allow greater levels of transit-oriented development in response to Sydney’s continuing population pressures. </p>
<p>People in Grayndler are very high public transport users, an issue the Greens have attempted to own. On a similar front, Greenland is also active on the issue of aircraft noise, which will allow him to criticise Albanese’s inability to move the intractable issue of the <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/second-airport-plan-a-beatup-to-win-election-20130726-2qp1v.html">second Sydney airport</a> while transport minister in the first Rudd government.</p>
<p>In the 2011 NSW state election, Fiona Byrne, the former Greens mayor of Marrickville, was touted as likely to unseat Tebbutt as part of the general rout of state Labor, but <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/ratepayers-wont-foot-37m-israel-boycott-bill-mayor-20110414-1df3c.html">ran foul</a> of the party’s support for the pro-Palestinian Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions campaign against Israel. The seat was the site of concerted illegal campaigning tactics, including unauthorised signs, stickers stating the Greens supported terrorism and accusations of push-polling. The source of these tactics remains unknown.</p>
<p>The Liberals’ candidate for this election is much stronger than their 2010 candidate, <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/national/tertiary-education/club-no-stranger-to-scraps-as-party-factions-vie-for-influence-20121001-26vl8.html">Alex Dore</a> - of the controversy surrounding the Liberal Students’ Club of Sydney University fame - in solicitor and university lecturer <a href="https://www.nsw.liberal.org.au/grayndler">Cedric Spencer</a>. Spencer’s campaign appears to largely be focused on mirroring the national campaign themes, though he has an established presence in the community through his volunteering.</p>
<p>The votes that Spencer pulls in will primarily support the ALP and Albanese. This will place the seat outside of the Greens’ reach in 2013.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16960/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Peter John Chen is a volunteer with the Australian Greens and lives in the seat of Grayndler.</span></em></p>The ALP is set to retain deputy prime minister Anthony Albanese’s seat of Grayndler following the Liberal Party’s decision to preference Labor over the Greens in the 2013 election. While the Greens made…Peter John Chen, Lecturer in Department of Government and International Relations, University of SydneyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/168592013-08-19T20:26:02Z2013-08-19T20:26:02ZThe Labor times are changing in Hotham<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29376/original/wn94r8qp-1376618818.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Retiring Labor MP Simon Crean has survived factional feuding and demographic changes in his seat Hotham.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Crosling</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>In the shadow of Monash University’s Clayton campus landmark Menzies Building to its north and with the affluent bayside Melbourne suburbs to its south and west lie the flat lands of the federal seat of Hotham. </p>
<p>Named after a colonial governor who couldn’t cope with the Eureka rebellion, Hotham had been a Liberal seat back in the days when the electorate was centred on the more affluent areas of Moorabbin and Bentleigh and Don Chipp was the sitting member. Hotham’s push to the east with successive redistributions has made it one of the safest Labor seats in the country. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED220">2011 Census</a> explains why this is so. This is an electorate where nearly half of the population were born overseas, and slightly less than half of its households speak a language other than English at home. The ethnic diversity of this seat is in full display in its major business and shopping districts of Clayton. These are prosaic shops: median family income is at about the state-wide average. Hotham isn’t a poor place, but it isn’t particularly affluent either.</p>
<p>Hotham is a blue-collar electorate, notwithstanding the impact of Monash University and the rump of Liberal-voting upper middle class suburbs such as Bentleigh and Murrumbeena on its western edge. The heart of the electorate is dominated by factories, light and heavy industry, warehousing and noxious works (tips, market gardens, poultry farming and Moorabbin Airport). </p>
<p>To its south are the new housing estates of Dingley and Keysborough. To the east are the sprawling 1950s working class suburbs of the Greater City of Dandenong and its surrounds such as South Springvale (complete with Buddhist temples, mosques and sprawling Orthodox churches all reflecting the ethnic composition of the district) and, of course, Clayton. Indeed, Clayton is the heart of Hotham, and the <a href="https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Government/ClaytonDistrictprofile.html">state seat</a> – also a very safe Labor seat - falls entirely within the federal electorate. </p>
<p>With its demographic shift towards industrial and multicultural Greater Dandenong, Hotham has become not only a safe Labor seat, but a place where internal Labor intrigue is played out. The first Labor member to be elected was Lewis Kent who won the seat in 1980. Kent won again in 1983, 1984 and 1987 but his hold on the seat was being undermined by Labor’s factional system and successive redistributions. Kent was Socialist Left-aligned and came from Highett on the western fringe of the electorate. </p>
<p>The shift of Hotham towards Dandenong meant that the branch input to the pre-selection process was changing with the inclusion of big branches of ethnically diverse groups who were organised by, and loyal to the Labour Unity faction on the party’s right. Ahead of the 1990 election Kent was persuaded to run in the newly formed seat of Corinella (which he lost) and in his place the ascendant Labor Unity faction backed the former secretary of the Storeman and Packers Union (these days called the National Union of Workers (NUW)), former Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU) president and son of a past Labor luminary, Simon Crean, for Hotham. </p>
<p>The fact that the Creans were actually based in South Melbourne mattered little, and Simon was elected and held Hotham <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-01/simon-crean-is-quitting-politics-at-the-federal-election/4791290">until his retirement</a> from politics this year amidst the Rudd-Gillard leadership turmoil. What was more important was the fact that he had NUW backing and the NUW was a major influence in Labor Unity at that time. </p>
<p>Crean had quite a significant career as a minister and shadow minister and, at one time, as leader of the opposition. However, it was after he lost the leadership that an attempt was made by forces within the Labor Unity faction to get rid of Crean and <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/writing-on-the-wall/2006/03/07/1141701514446.html?page=fullpage">replace him</a> with a younger NUW player, Martin Pakula. </p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29381/original/m2j4gvcs-1376619651.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29381/original/m2j4gvcs-1376619651.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29381/original/m2j4gvcs-1376619651.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29381/original/m2j4gvcs-1376619651.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=717&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29381/original/m2j4gvcs-1376619651.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29381/original/m2j4gvcs-1376619651.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29381/original/m2j4gvcs-1376619651.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=901&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Now a Victorian state MP, Martin Pakula was part of a factional push to unseat Simon Crean in Hotham in 2006.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Luis Enrique Ascui</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>This incident indicated the extent to which Labor Unity had fractured into sub-factions. Crean found himself in a power struggle with two other emerging factional figures Steven Conroy (an acolyte of Robert Ray and senator) and Bill Shorten, at that time a deputy party president and secretary of the Australian Workers Union. </p>
<p>To defend himself, Crean had to find a way to combat the apparent loss of NUW support and relied on the assistance of the local branches to do so. Of these, the branches in Springvale and Clayton were critically important. Made up primarily of people with Vietnamese and Cambodian backgrounds, these members were marshalled by another important player - Hong Lim, the state Labor MP for Clayton.</p>
<p>The reason for this big Asian presence in the party was also geographic. Until recently, a major migrant reception centre was located at Westall in the heart of the electorate and a large south-east Asian community had settled in the adjacent suburb of Springvale. As one of their prominent community leaders, Hong Lim had emerged as a major player in the internal Labor affairs in the district.</p>
<p>These forces were at work again in the pre-selection of the Labor candidate who will replace Simon Crean although the process has been far from smooth. In a sign of changing times, Hotham won’t be contested by a Labor bloke from the trade unions. Nor, indeed, will Labor be putting up someone whose ethnicity reflects the community being represented. </p>
<p>Instead, Claire O'Neil, a Monash University graduate management consultant with a post-graduate degree from Harvard (courtesy of a Fulbright Scholarship), will be the Labor candidate and will win the seat. O’Neil secured pre-selection following the <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-10/prime-minister-kevin-rudd-forced-to-dump-labor27s-hotham-candi/4878470">dumping</a> of the former pre-selected candidate, Geoff Lake, who pays a high price for once having sworn at a fellow Monash City councillor - much to the chagrin of prime minister Kevin Rudd (himself noted as <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVEaHcyMesQ">something of a potty-mouth</a>). </p>
<p>O’Neill will have Fazal Cader as her Liberal opponent, Lorna Wyatt as her Green adversary and, so far, Samuel Porter has also put up his hand on behalf of the Palmer United Party. O’Neil will defeat all of these people and will have the prospect of a long parliamentary career provided Hotham’s factional politics are kept under control.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16859/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Nick Economou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>In the shadow of Monash University’s Clayton campus landmark Menzies Building to its north and with the affluent bayside Melbourne suburbs to its south and west lie the flat lands of the federal seat of…Nick Economou, Senior Lecturer, School of Political and Social Inquiry, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/168502013-08-18T20:18:54Z2013-08-18T20:18:54Z‘Friendly’ rivalry in O’Connor: can the Nationals win again?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29307/original/qdbst7xb-1376540906.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">WA Nationals MP Tony Crook is not running for re-election in September. Who will succeed in the 'friendly' battle for O'Connor?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Penny Bradfield</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The Western Australian seat of O’Connor provides a fascinating battle between the Liberal and National parties that reflects a struggle to win the hearts and minds – and votes – of regional Western Australians.</p>
<p>O’Connor rose to national prominence in 2010 when its long-serving MP, controversial Liberal Wilson Tuckey, <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/24/2991724.htm?site=esperance">lost acrimoniously</a> to the Nationals’ Tony Crook, giving the Nationals their first WA member of the House of Representatives in more than 30 years. Crook initially declared himself an independent National who would not formally belong to the Coalition in Canberra, although he <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/tony-crook-backing-clears-way-for-tony-abbott-government/story-e6frfkp9-1225915004311">supported Tony Abbott</a> over Julia Gillard in the post-election negotiations.</p>
<p>Earlier this year, however, Crook announced he would not contest the 2013 election. With no sitting member claiming a personal vote, the competition for O’Connor between the Liberal and National parties is intense. This mirrors the situation in the adjoining seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/wa/durack.htm">Durack</a>, where long-time Liberal member Barry Haase is <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-17/federal-mp-barry-haase-says-it-is-time-to-retire/4757802">also retiring</a> and a closely-fought battle between the two non-Labor parties is also expected. </p>
<p>The situation in both seats has been further complicated by Labor’s decision to <a href="http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/18534687/preference-blow-to-nationals/">direct preferences</a> to the Liberals ahead of the Nationals, reversing the situation from three years ago. Whether this will be sufficient to stall the WA Nationals’ aspirations to consolidate and improve on their 2010 election performance remains to be seen.</p>
<p>Tuckey’s defeat, after 30 years as the local member, came on the back of a redistribution in 2010 that saw O’Connor change shape from its traditional arc covering the state’s wheatbelt stretching from the mid-west coast to the south coast. The new boundaries removed the western coastal areas and the coastal city of Geraldton, and instead added the inland city of Kalgoorlie and other mining towns.</p>
<p>These new boundaries made O’Connor the <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/wa/oconnor.htm">third largest seat</a> in Australia, stretching east from the WA central wheatbelt to the South Australian border and north from the Great Australian Bight to the Gibson Desert. In the north of the electorate, the major centre is Kalgoorlie-Boulder and in the south it is the port city of Albany, where around a quarter of the electorate lives.</p>
<p>As a result, O’Connor has lost its singular wheatbelt character - although farming still makes up <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED510">11.1% of employment</a> compared to 1.2% nationally - and now also includes a large swathe of mining areas (6.9% of employment compared to 0.6% nationally). It is still very Anglo, with 75% of the population having Australian, English, Scottish or Irish ancestry compared to 65% for Australia as a whole, and is relatively poorer, with family incomes about 90% of the national median.</p>
<p>Tuckey had traditionally won easily against Labor, with his majorities being boosted by Labor coming second on primary votes so that he secured Nationals’ preferences. In 2010, though, the Nationals – resurgent after a strong showing at the 2008 state election – triumphed by winning nearly <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-243.htm">29% of the primary vote</a> and pushing Labor into third with just 17%, while the Liberal primary vote dropped to 38%. With Labor and the Greens (who polled 9%) both preferencing against the Liberals, the Nationals won with 53.5% of the two-party-preferred vote and Tuckey’s parliamentary career was over.</p>
<figure class="align-right ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29310/original/s2c3mmx3-1376541588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=237&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29310/original/s2c3mmx3-1376541588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29310/original/s2c3mmx3-1376541588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29310/original/s2c3mmx3-1376541588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=902&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29310/original/s2c3mmx3-1376541588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29310/original/s2c3mmx3-1376541588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29310/original/s2c3mmx3-1376541588.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=1133&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Wilson Tuckey, the long-time member for O'Connor, was defeated in 2010.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Crook distanced himself from the federal Coalition initially, but <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/crook-joins-coalition-20120506-1y6l4.html">joined the party room</a> in 2012. Even then, in late 2012 he <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-09-26/crook-lends-support-to-wheat-deregulation/4280596">voted with the Labor government</a> and against almost all his colleagues - including east coast Nationals and most WA Liberals - to support the government’s legislation to deregulate wheat export marketing, citing support from WA farming groups.</p>
<p>The Nationals have preselected William “Chub” Witham, a mining geologist, in Crook’s place. Witham’s Liberal opponent is Rick Wilson, a farmer from Katanning, who has been campaigning for two years. Labor’s candidate is Michael Salt, a union official who lives in the adjacent seat of Durack.</p>
<p>With the two non-Labor parties providing the main contest, and with the electorate no longer having a solely wheatbelt character, policy differentiation between the Liberals and Nationals is unlikely to be prominent in O’Connor. Both parties will emphasise their opposition to the mining and carbon taxes and their support for agriculture, regional health and education. The main battle is over identity: which party is seen as the natural defenders of rural and regional Western Australia in the federal parliament. </p>
<p>The Nationals’ win in O’Connor in 2010 continued their electoral revival at state level. This has come on the back of its championing of the <a href="http://www.drd.wa.gov.au/royalties/Pages/default.aspx">Royalties for Regions</a> program, which has delivered millions in financial support from the WA government for community, public and industry infrastructure in regional WA. </p>
<p>Support for this policy saw the Nationals successfully break out of their rural heartland into areas where Labor were traditionally the Liberals’ main opponents. This strategy helped the Nationals win seven seats at the 2013 state election compared to four in 2008, defeating both Liberal and Labor challengers in the process. </p>
<p>O’Connor overlaps some or all of six state lower house seats, four of which (Central Wheatbelt, Kalgoorlie, Wagin and Warren-Blackwood) are held by the Nationals, one (Eyre) very narrowly by the Liberals over the Nationals, and one (Albany) by Labor through a popular local member.</p>
<p>The Nationals’ success at state level may explain Labor’s decision to preference the Liberals in O'Connor and Durack. Labor’s tactic appears to be to maintain competition between the two conservative parties and thereby cause them to commit valuable resources that would otherwise be deployed against Labor in other seats. Labor may also be concerned with preventing the Nationals from consolidating their position at state and federal level in these areas.</p>
<p>Whether Labor preferences will be decisive is unclear. In the state election, the Nationals won two seats where Labor and the Greens preferenced the Liberals. Labor’s influence on the outcome in O’Connor depends on the size of its primary vote, whether it has supporters available at booths to hand out how to vote cards, and if enough voters follow the party’s recommendation.</p>
<p>With O’Connor now being a rural and regional blend, it will provide a good test of the Nationals’ ability to consolidate its state election success at a national level when voters go to the polls on September 7, or whether it will return to its former Liberal Party home.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16850/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>John Phillimore has previously worked as an advisor to state Labor governments in Western Australia.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Lance McMahon has previously worked as an advisor to state Labor governments in Western Australia.</span></em></p>The Western Australian seat of O’Connor provides a fascinating battle between the Liberal and National parties that reflects a struggle to win the hearts and minds – and votes – of regional Western Australians…John Phillimore, Executive Director, John Curtin Institute for Public Policy, Curtin UniversityLance McMahon, Research Associate, Curtin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/168392013-08-15T20:49:42Z2013-08-15T20:49:42ZVictory in Denison: a Shakespearean question?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29248/original/cgttpwm6-1376463200.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Andrew Wilkie will have to fight off challengers from the ALP, Coalition and the Greens to retain his seat of Denison.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>To Wilkie, or not to Wilkie? </p>
<p>That is the question confronting the electors in the Tasmanian seat of Denison on September 7.</p>
<h2>The last three years</h2>
<p>It’s been a long time since former prime minister Julia Gillard and Denison MP Andrew Wilkie signed the <a href="http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/09/02/1225913/461143-aus-file-wilkie-deal.pdf">eight page agreement</a> on September 2, 2010, that helped secure minority government for Labor. In turn, it elevated Wilkie from an independent who secured <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-194.htm">21% of the first preference vote</a> and ran third behind the Labor and Liberal candidates on first preferences to a place in Australian political history.</p>
<p>Wilkie’s victory, elevated in the count by Greens preference flows and ironically finally secured on the back of Liberal Party preferences, brought largesse to Denison via significant investment in hospital funding and political influence in the 43rd parliament. That agreement also provided unprecedented access to the prime minister for Wilkie.</p>
<p>However, it all ended in great disappointment. Labor was able to <a href="https://theconversation.com/gillard-bets-the-house-while-wilkie-walks-over-pokie-reform-4991">ditch its commitment</a> to Wilkie’s poker machine reform on the back of Peter Slipper’s elevation to the speakership and the subsequent shift in numbers in the House of Representatives.</p>
<h2>What about this time around?</h2>
<p>The uncertainty attached to Denison has two explanations: one purely speculative and the other so odd that it invites a range of potential conspiracy theories. </p>
<p>Both explanations have a timeline divided by the Gillard minority government and Kevin Rudd’s resurrection as prime minister. When Julia Gillard was prime minister with a September 14 election date in sight, Wilkie’s prospects were clouded by a certain Coalition victory and the “New England syndrome”. Why would voters place their faith in an independent without influence in a parliament and government now in majority, with a massive majority as well?</p>
<p>Significantly, the Liberals – after a long delay - nominated a political novice to run in Denison from “out of town”, <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/06/21/381928_tasmania-news.html">Tanya Denison</a>, who had arrived in Tasmania from Queensland in December 2012. Opposition leader Tony Abbott <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-16/abbott-left-red-faced-over-denison-gaffe/4823802">couldn’t remember her name</a> when he visited northern Tasmania in July 2013, and Denison was also <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-21/liberals-name-denison-candidate/4771072">forced to remove comments</a> about the GST that suggested Tasmania was a burden on the other states from her Facebook page. </p>
<p>So, where was the high profile Liberal candidate who, on the back of a Coalition landslide, might challenge Wilkie and Labor in Denison? In April, prior to the selection of Tanya Denison as the Liberal candidate, Labor state secretary John Dowling suggested that Wilkie had done a deal with the Liberals and was effectively the de facto Liberal candidate, who would support the Coalition if elected.</p>
<p>At present, Labor and Wilkie are locked in a battle over a Labor billboard that proclaims: “Vote for Wilkie equals Get Abbott”. Wilkie <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-13/wilkie-demands-removal-of-27defamatory27-alp-billboard/4882708">claims</a> the material is defamatory and misleading and has written to the prime minister to demand its removal.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29249/original/2pvfm9h5-1376463517.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29249/original/2pvfm9h5-1376463517.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29249/original/2pvfm9h5-1376463517.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29249/original/2pvfm9h5-1376463517.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29249/original/2pvfm9h5-1376463517.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29249/original/2pvfm9h5-1376463517.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29249/original/2pvfm9h5-1376463517.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=501&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Andrew Wilkie has demanded this billboard linking him with Tony Abbott be removed.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/David Beniuk</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>In addition, there was some speculation that if Wilkie was unsuccessful at the federal poll he would contest the state election in 2014, and if elected he would support the Liberals either in minority or majority state government. Wilkie has rejected this theory, but it remains unclear as to why the Liberals couldn’t find a competitive local candidate.</p>
<p>Labor selected a hard-working but relatively unknown novice candidate in social worker, Jane Austin. By contrast, the Greens have a high profile activist, Anna Reynolds, as their candidate. Denison is likely to be contested by at least seven candidates including <a href="http://palmerunited.com/staff/debra-thurley/">Debra Thurley</a>, contesting on behalf of the Palmer United Party.</p>
<p>To retain Denison, Wilkie must repeat his 2010 position – finish third at worst – and hope for preference flows from the Greens to elevate him to a winnable position. This might be complicated by the levels of animosity between Wilkie and some Greens’ supporters, but is unlikely to be decisive even if Labor and the Greens were to do a preference deal.</p>
<p>Denison is Tasmania’s Green seat, and Reynolds’ profile should deliver a primary vote in the 20% plus range. However, it will not be higher than Wilkie’s anticipated primary vote, which could out-poll the Liberal candidate.</p>
<p>Two local issues – a proposed <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/02/27/373336_tasmania-news.html">cable car</a> on Mt Wellington and a <a href="http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2013/04/12/376753_todays-news.html">light rail system</a> to the northern suburbs of Denison – will attract the attention of voters. On a national scale, the level of Newstart and youth allowances, Kevin Rudd’s asylum seeker policy, the carbon tax and the potential change to GST distribution are of interest.</p>
<p>For the 70,000 electors in Denison - largely snuggled under the majesty of Mt Wellington, taking in the cities of Hobart, Glenorchy and northern parts of the relatively affluent Kingborough municipality - who to elect in Denison remains a complex question with an uncertain answer.</p>
<p>A couple of weeks into the official election campaign and the political outcome in Denison is as foggy as when the infamous <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2009/05/13/2569108.htm">Bridgewater Jerry</a> – a meteorological fog – descended on the Derwent River and its upper reaches.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16839/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tony McCall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>To Wilkie, or not to Wilkie? That is the question confronting the electors in the Tasmanian seat of Denison on September 7. The last three years It’s been a long time since former prime minister Julia…Tony McCall, Senior Lecturer, Politics and International Relations Program, School of Social Sciences, , University of TasmaniaLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/168352013-08-14T20:25:02Z2013-08-14T20:25:02ZCan Ken Wyatt hold on to Hasluck?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29036/original/5hbg4byk-1376280371.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Liberal MP Ken Wyatt became the first Indigenous member of the lower house in 2010 in the WA seat of Hasluck. Will he be returned this time?</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The outer suburban Western Australian seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/wa/hasluck.htm">Hasluck</a> moved centre stage during the last federal election for two reasons. First, the <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-305.htm">tight result</a> meant that it was not decided until late in the count and, even though it wasn’t going to determine the overall outcome of the election, who won it was important. A Labor win would have given it more seats in the House of Representatives than the Liberals and a stronger claim to government.</p>
<p>But, as it has done in every election since it was created in 2001, Hasluck changed hands and became a marginal Liberal seat: very marginal, as Ken Wyatt holds it with less than a 0.6% margin.</p>
<p>The second reason that Hasluck moved centre stage was that Wyatt became the <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/first-indigenous-mp-thanks-rudd/story-fn59niix-1225931997934">first Indigenous Australian</a> to be elected to the House of Representatives. He wasn’t the first Wyatt to enter politics, though, as his nephew <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/meet-ben-wyatt-one-of-the-most-accomplished-mps-youve-never-heard-of/story-e6frfkp9-1226593459242">Ben Wyatt</a> is a leading figure in - and possibly the future leader of - the Labor Party in WA. However, this is subject to the ambitions of current leader Mark McGowan, and possibly retiring federal MP <a href="http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/retiring-federal-labor-member-stephen-smith-may-lead-wa-labor/story-fnhocxo3-1226671005062">Stephen Smith</a>.</p>
<p>While every candidate would suggest that their electorate they contest is complex, Hasluck is very much a patchwork. It lies on the eastern edge of Perth’s metropolitan area. Its population is more concentrated in its northern and southern parts and the voters there generally favour Labor. The middle of the electorate is lower density and the voters there are more likely to vote Liberal. But even here there is a difference between the western side, where Perth suburbs push outward, and the eastern side, which contains larger holdings, with market gardens and vineyards.</p>
<p>If you had to call Hasluck now, you could be pretty confident that Ken Wyatt will retain the seat. Given that we can anticipate a swing to the Coalition in Western Australia, you’d expect Wyatt to increase his majority - continuing the 3.6% swing to him in the last election.</p>
<p>But Labor must have some hope of regaining the seat. The voters of Hasluck tend to be a little more Labor-leaning than WA voters generally, and the Liberals are not travelling as well in WA as they were at the <a href="https://theconversation.com/wa-election-barnett-and-the-liberals-do-it-easy-12470">state election in March</a>. Premier Colin Barnett has been less sure. More importantly, treasurer Troy Buswell recently <a href="http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/troy-buswells-budget-battles-to-stay-in-black-20130808-2rk47.html">handed down a budget</a> with even further increases to basic charges – which reflects a significant fall in state government revenue, but voters don’t always see it that way. Labor is already using this as evidence that the Liberals are not always the low tax party they sometimes present themselves to be.</p>
<p>Wyatt hasn’t made any significant mistakes and though voters experience problems with infrastructure and services (something common to outer metropolitan and regional seats), this tends to play out more at the state level than the federal level. There is still a strong sense of a two-speed economy in Perth, with those in the lower half doing it tough. Once again, however, this shouldn’t hurt Wyatt too much.</p>
<p>What might hurt him, and another reason that Labor might feel more confident about winning Hasluck back, is the <a href="http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/aboriginal-mp-ken-wyatt-in-race-row-claim/story-fn5taogy-1225911371233">racist backlash</a> Wyatt experienced when Hasluck was in the media spotlight during the final count in the 2010 election. This backlash came from a variety of quarters, including from other Indigenous Australians who accused him of <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/halsuck-winner-ken-wyatt-gets-racist-hate-mail/story-e6frfkp9-1225911296823">“selling out”</a>.</p>
<p>But it is those voters who told him that they wouldn’t have voted for him had they known he was Indigenous who are Wyatt’s greatest concern. While Wyatt was rightly surprised that these voters didn’t know he was Indigenous, his race was not central to his campaigning in 2010.</p>
<p>Given the lack of interest that many Australians take in elections in this country, it’s not hard to imagine that some voters didn’t know Wyatt was Indigenous. They do now. The question is how many voters are there who wouldn’t have voted for him if they had known his race.</p>
<p>Nobody knows the answer to this question. But it’s the only cloud on Wyatt’s horizon that I can see. Let’s hope it is a very small cloud.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16835/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Ian Cook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The outer suburban Western Australian seat of Hasluck moved centre stage during the last federal election for two reasons. First, the tight result meant that it was not decided until late in the count…Ian Cook, Senior Lecturer of Australian Politics , Murdoch UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/155182013-08-13T20:32:10Z2013-08-13T20:32:10ZLingiari: unique, but still a mirror of the broader contest?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/28827/original/bk4zdqqm-1375850842.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Indigenous health minister Warren Snowdon ought to be concerned about the growing disillusionment towards the ALP of Aborigines in his Lingiari electorate.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Dean Lewins</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>Recently, Lingiari MP and Minister for Indigenous Health and Veterans’ Affairs Warren Snowdon made a big fuss in the local NT media about a A$4,500 grant for a new stove for the ailing RSL club in Alice Springs.</p>
<p>This showed that he is genuinely concerned for his seat. As I will outline below, so he should be.</p>
<h2>Profile</h2>
<p>For a combination of reasons <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nt/lingiari.htm">Lingiari</a> is a unique electorate. It is very large: at 1,347,849 sq kms it comprises 99% of the land area of the NT, excluding only Darwin and Palmerston (which make up the electorate of Solomon). But it is not unique for this reason: the electorate of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/wa/durack.htm">Durack</a> in Western Australia is larger. Surprisingly, Lingiari has the Christmas and the Cocos-Keeling Islands in the electorate, notwithstanding that these islands are jurisdictionally part of Western Australia. </p>
<p>The electorate also has a very high “churn” amongst the non-Aboriginal population. In any election, about one-third of the non-Aboriginal voters have never voted in Lingiari previously. This makes predictions difficult because we don’t know whether these people still retain the particular attitudes to politics they had when they arrived, or are influenced by local issues.</p>
<p>However, Lingiari is mostly singular amongst federal electorates in its <a href="http://www.warrensnowdon.com/about/about-lingiari/">high proportion</a> of Aboriginal voters - more than 40%. This group of voters also comprise most of the 44% of the electorate who do not speak English as a first language at home. </p>
<p>In the past, a large Labor majority of Aboriginal votes has made Lingiari safe for Labor. This has recently changed. In the 2010 Territory Assembly election, the Country Liberal Party (CLP) won five of the seven “bush” seats - three from Labor ministers - as Aboriginal voters <a href="https://theconversation.com/was-the-nt-election-outcome-a-shockwave-or-a-regional-ripple-9138">systematically shifted their vote</a> to the conservatives for the first time since self-government was introduced to the NT in 1978.</p>
<h2>Voting patterns</h2>
<p>In <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/10822/Website/index.html">2001</a>, Labor obtained 55.3% of the two-party-preferred (TPP) vote in Lingiari. It <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-12246-306.htm">increased this margin</a> in 2004 and the Labor vote peaked at 61.2% of the TPP vote at the <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-306.htm">2007 election</a>, which saw the return of Labor to office. </p>
<p>Again in sync with national patterns, the Labor vote fell by 7.46% of the TPP vote to 53.7% <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-306.htm">in 2010</a>, though this was by more than the national average. This presaged the growing disillusionment with Labor in the Aboriginal bush communities as seen in the subsequent NT election in 2012.</p>
<p>We can break Lingiari down into separate voting blocks. Historically, the core Labor voting areas are the remote Aboriginal communities, Nhulunbuy and Tennant Creek (both mining and services towns). The Country Liberals’ main support has come from the towns of Alice Springs and Katherine and the rural southern margins outside Darwin. </p>
<p>However, these patterns are no longer absolutes, as we can see from a comparison between the “typical” 2007 election and the “atypical” 2010 election in the figure below.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29150/original/386pjwy3-1376376652.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29150/original/386pjwy3-1376376652.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29150/original/386pjwy3-1376376652.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29150/original/386pjwy3-1376376652.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29150/original/386pjwy3-1376376652.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=295&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29150/original/386pjwy3-1376376652.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29150/original/386pjwy3-1376376652.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/29150/original/386pjwy3-1376376652.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=370&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption"></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>We can see here several anomalies from the “usual” pattern of voting. Firstly, there was a huge swing against Labor amongst Aborigines in the bush, here classified as remote mobiles because they have mobile not fixed polling stations. </p>
<p>Yet Labor, unusually, won Alice Springs and had swings to it in Katherine and the Darwin rural area. This was probably because the CLP candidate (Leo Abbott) was <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-08-15/country-liberals-keep-leo-abbott-as-candidate/945184">embroiled in controversy</a> over a domestic violence order against him. Then-CLP leader Terry Mills tried to remove Abbott but was overridden by the CLP state council, thereby keeping the issue in the spotlight. Presumably as a consequence, Labor won more of the female vote among the non-Aboriginal electorate.</p>
<h2>Issues in Lingiari</h2>
<p>In a rough sense, voting in Lingiari parallels national voting patterns. The national campaign will therefore be important and many voters will vote on national issues. The problem that Labor has is that none of the local issues that are important in the Lingiari electorate are to the Labor government’s advantage.</p>
<p>The major case in point is Aboriginal affairs. This is usually couched in terms of the NT Intervention, initiated by prime minister John Howard’s government and continued by Labor under the rubric of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-30-year-cycle-indigenous-policy-and-the-tide-of-public-opinion-8114">“Stronger Futures”</a>. </p>
<p>The Labor government has not handled this very complex set of issues well. Those in the Aboriginal community who support the intent of this policy set - including most of the CLP’s Aboriginal Territory Assembly members - lambaste the federal government for the failures of its remote housing program and the overbearing attitudes of the Commonwealth bureaucracy. </p>
<p>The rest of the Aboriginal community (and a good number of “whitefellas”, working for NGOs, parastatal organisations and service delivery agencies) are opposed to its diminution of Aboriginal self-determination. The negatives for Labor of this set of issues will surely be highlighted by Aboriginal Territory Assembly members during the election campaign.</p>
<p>There are minor local issues that may have a marginal effect in the election. Former prime minister Julia Gillard’s <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/rudd-to-review-captains-pick-nova-peris-for-labor-nt-senate-seat/story-fn9qr68y-1226676371558">“captain’s pick”</a> of former Olympian Nova Peris as Labor’s number one Senate candidate may dilute some ALP members’ enthusiasm for electioneering. The advent of the First Nations party might have a minor anti-Labor effect on the allocation of preferences. Local disputes over the proposed <a href="http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1624930/Factbox-Muckaty-Nuclear-Waste-Dump">nuclear waste dump at Muckaty Station</a> near Tennant Creek may also impact. None of these issues are to Labor’s advantage.</p>
<p>There is lingering anger in much of the community of Lingiari over Labor’s unilateral ban on live cattle exports. This badly affected many Aboriginal-owned cattle stations, so it is a negative in parts of the Aboriginal community as well as amongst non-Aboriginal pastoralists. <a href="http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/live-cattle-quotas-up-to-indonesia-rudd/story-e6frfku9-1226679999582">Recent discussions</a> between Kevin Rudd and Indonesia about the restoration of that trade will not ameliorate that disadvantage for Labor.</p>
<h2>Conclusion and prediction</h2>
<p>The result in Lingiari will probably be closer than it has ever been since the seat was created for the 2001 election. Labor will suffer a swing against it in Alice Springs and Katherine, possibly of a sufficient margin to lose the seat though that is hard to predict. Ironically, given that Snowdon was one of Gillard’s strongest supporters, the resurrection of Rudd makes Labor’s chances better. </p>
<p>If Rudd maintains his current level of support and Labor manages to win the federal election, then it may just hold on to Lingiari: though I think it will not unless it restores its Aboriginal vote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15518/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Rolf Gerritsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Recently, Lingiari MP and Minister for Indigenous Health and Veterans’ Affairs Warren Snowdon made a big fuss in the local NT media about a A$4,500 grant for a new stove for the ailing RSL club in Alice…Rolf Gerritsen, Professorial Research Fellow, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/155442013-08-12T20:18:17Z2013-08-12T20:18:17ZNo easy way to Lindsay<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27287/original/wdn3gjhb-1373515212.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Sitting Labor MP David Bradbury is running for re-election for the seat of Lindsay.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP Image/Alan Porritt</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/lindsay.htm">Lindsay</a> represents some of Sydney’s outer western suburbs. It has occupied its own special place in the Australian psyche, long before the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Leaflet-scandal-triggers-resignation/2007/11/22/1195321922180.html">leaflet scandal</a> in the last days of John Howard’s reign made front-page news. </p>
<p>Centred in Penrith at the foothill of the Blue Mountains, this bellwether seat was established in 1984 and has since proved a favourite for political analysts. The seat is located in the <a href="http://profile.id.com.au/wsroc/housing-loan?WebID=200">“mortgage belt”</a> of western Sydney, where high interest rates and job insecurity outweigh concerns over climate change and marriage inequality. </p>
<p>This is not to dismiss the vibrant activist and artist communities often ignored by those that think issues of social justice are only “inner-city elites” concerns.</p>
<h2>Infrastructure: a uniting concern</h2>
<p>Something that everyone agrees on - no matter their political orientation - is the lack of investment in infrastructure.</p>
<p>Lindsay is situated over 50 kilometres from Sydney’s CBD, and many of its voters are forced to endure interminable traffic jams or the “sardine commute”. This makes public transport and infrastructure policy hot political issues. </p>
<p>Many locals are understandably keen to see more jobs move to the region as the dwindling manufacturing sector has removed a steady source of local employment. This may well explain why Gough Whitlam holds a special place here: his government actually <a href="http://www.whitlam.org/gough_whitlam/Western_Sydney">invested</a> in the area.</p>
<p>One of the biggest challenges for Labor in the lead up to the election will be to show support to those left behind by this decline. But this is an issue for the Coalition also: neither party is offering any sort of blueprint for new employment opportunities in the region.</p>
<h2>Lindsay’s history</h2>
<p>Prior to the 1996 election, Lindsay was considered a <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-01/cassidy-going-out-west-where-the-wind-blows-tall/4545748">safe Labor seat</a>, but Liberal candidate Jackie Kelly <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s2046727.htm">won a famous victory</a> as John Howard swept to power. But what goes around comes around, and in 2007 Labor reclaimed the talismanic seat, once again on the coat tails of a new leader. </p>
<p>The 2007 election was a particularly memorable one for Lindsay voters. Three days before the election, Liberal Party supporters - including the husband of the outgoing MP Jackie Kelly - were photographed distributing <a href="http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/chaserstyle-prank/2007/11/22/1195321873077.html">fake pamphlets</a> linking the ALP with Islamic terrorism. The remarkable episode helped derail the final days of the campaign for the Coalition. </p>
<p>Taxation lawyer and former Penrith Mayor David Bradbury <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s2046727.htm">reclaimed the seat</a> for Labor in 2007, and its prominence continued to grow in the lead-up to the 2010 election. </p>
<h2>Bradbury and Gillard’s relationship</h2>
<p>When the newly elected prime minister Julia Gillard invited Bradbury to join her and several news crews to inspect a <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/julia-gillards-gunboat-diplomacy/story-e6frgczf-1225889196015">naval exercise</a> off Darwin, many commentators noted how the ALP wanted to project a strong stance on asylum policy to voters in Western Sydney. </p>
<p>David Bradbury was one of Julia Gillard’s <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-news/labor-mp-david-bradbury-threatens-to-get-tattoo-in-support-of-pm-julia-gillard/story-e6frfkvr-1226277036331">staunchest supporters</a>. Consequently, he was on the receiving end of brutal treatment by right wing Sydney shock jocks and their generally distasteful treatment of the former prime minister. After famously quipping he would get a tattoo to prove his loyalty to Gillard, he <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/west/david-bradbury-switches-support-for-kevin-rudd-in-an-attempt-to-prevent-election-defeat/story-fngr8i5s-1226670795777">ultimately abandoned her</a> in June’s leadership ballot. </p>
<p>Bradbury was a popular figure with the electorate but the relentless attacks on him has seen his support dwindle. His decision to <a href="http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/david-bradburys-kevin-rudd-switch-hits-a-sweet-spot-with-lindsay-voters/story-fni0cx12-1226673399991">throw his support</a> behind Rudd, however, has been generally welcomed.</p>
<p>Bradbury justified his decision to local newspaper Penrith Press by saying he wanted the government to be more competitive.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We all want to win. Abbott was being given a free run into office. I have been deeply frustrated by the fact that the Opposition has been able to coast along without any scrutiny.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>Lindsay’s future</h2>
<p>The return of Kevin Rudd is no doubt a game-changer for David Bradbury, as it is for fellow Western Sydney MPs Michelle Rowland and Jason Clare, <a href="http://www.afr.com/p/national/shorten_kingmaker_no_longer_zQjk9A8ad68sc8txItljwI">who ultimately abandoned Julia Gillard</a>. </p>
<p>The local <a href="http://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2013/lindsay2013">Liberal candidate</a>, marketing manager <a href="https://www.nsw.liberal.org.au/fiona-scott">Fiona Scott</a>, has had no trouble drawing the Coalition’s big names to canvass for votes in the local shopping malls, but she will undoubtedly be more nervous now the campaigning machine that is Kevin Rudd is back in power. </p>
<p>Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey and deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop have both recently hit the hustings with Scott, a second-time candidate, and opposition leader Tony Abbott hosted a <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/31/tony-abbott-phones-8000-voters">virtual forum</a> in an innovative technique where he remotely spoke to voters and polled them on contentious issues. </p>
<p>The election will see things heat up in Lindsay. However, it will be a mistake for either party to treat the electorate as a homogenous group or think that a single highway will make a difference.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15544/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James Arvanitakis receives funding from Australian Research Council and the Office of Learning and Teaching.</span></em></p>The seat of Lindsay represents some of Sydney’s outer western suburbs. It has occupied its own special place in the Australian psyche, long before the leaflet scandal in the last days of John Howard’s…James Arvanitakis, Lecturer in Cultural and Social Analysis, Western Sydney UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/155152013-08-11T20:11:49Z2013-08-11T20:11:49ZReassessing Melbourne three years on<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/29016/original/cfr47tj4-1376260440.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Bandt AAP Image Julian Smith</span> </figcaption></figure><p>Kevin Rudd’s restoration to the ALP leadership may yet be an electoral game-changer as the polling day of September 7 fast approaches. Recent opinion polling suggests Labor’s primary vote has <a href="https://theconversation.com/analysis-of-latest-federal-polls-6-aug-16683">returned</a> to close to its 2010 pre-election levels, but its resurgence may now undercut the Greens’ primary vote.</p>
<p>In light of this and other events, now is a good a time to reassess the state of play in the federal Victorian seat of Melbourne: tipped to be one of the most intensely contested seats in 2013.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/vic/melbourne.htm">Melbourne</a> is an inner metropolitan seat with a 46 square kilometre footprint. Prior to the 2010 election it was a Labor heartland seat, continuously held by the party since 1904 and producing three ALP federal ministers.</p>
<p>But like many trendy inner metropolitan seats, Melbourne bears only a faint resemblance to its former working class roots.</p>
<p>The extent of Melbourne’s transformation is very clearly revealed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ <a href="http://www.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2011/quickstat/CED231?opendocument&navpos=220">2011 Census data</a>. The electorate of Melbourne has the eighth highest median weekly household income (A$1998) in Victoria, making it one of the state’s most affluent divisions. Just under 56% of the electorate belongs to either a managerial or professional occupational based category. It is also a highly educated electorate. 48.2% of the electorate holds a tertiary degree and/or possesses technical and further education qualifications.</p>
<p>But perhaps its most striking characteristic is the youthfulness of the electorate. The median age of Melbourne is 31 years, making it the second youngest federal seat in Australia. It has one of the highest concentrations of 20-24 year olds (14.6%) courtesy of the two universities that lay within its boundaries.</p>
<p>The demographic characteristics of Melbourne voters partly accounts why the Greens’ Adam Bandt was sufficiently competitive to <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-228.htm">win the seat</a> against Labor’s Cath Bowtell in 2010.</p>
<p>But if a week is a long time in politics, then three years must surely be an entirely new space-time continuum. What then are the challenges and opportunities for Bandt and Bowtell as we near the 2013 polls?</p>
<p>Bandt’s chances are strengthened by the simple fact of his incumbency. As deputy leader of the Greens, and their only representative in the lower house, Bandt has been provided with a rare platform to consolidate his profile. This has further improved his prospects of maximising the electoral dividend that is often derived from being a first term MP.</p>
<p>Bandt’s campaign budget is also shaping up to be a little more fuller this time around. The Electrical Trades Union, which stumped up $125,000 in 2010, has <a href="http://www.etuvic.com.au/content/union-chips-back-greens-mp">pledged $300,000</a>. Bandt can further count on the support of the <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/firefighters-union-backs-bandt-20130621-2omjh.html">United Firefighters Union</a> (although it is unclear what this entails), as well having being identified by the <a href="http://www.adambandt.com/nteu_back_adam_s_campaign_for_melbourne">National Tertiary Education Union</a> as one of the beneficiaries of its $1 million campaign against the Coalition.</p>
<p>The other factor that might enhance Bandt’s prospects is the return of Kevin Rudd to the Labor leadership. Although this might seem counter-intuitive in light of recent electoral shifts, <a href="http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/labor-push-on-to-reclaim-melbourne-20130704-2pev3.html#ixzz2YGGhhoJz">private polling</a> commissioned by the Greens suggests that Rudd is particularly unpopular among Melbourne voters. Anti-Rudd sentiment is likely to have strengthened even further in light of the Government’s new hardline position on asylum seekers, a policy decision which many of Melbourne’s more cosmopolitan voters will find distasteful. </p>
<p>However, things are also looking up for Bowtell.</p>
<p>The federal redistribution of Melbourne, which was concluded in 2011, has resulted in parts of the electorate being transferred to other divisions. While considered only a negligible adjustment to Melbourne’s boundaries, this is not without potential effect, particularly if the contest is close. The ABC’s Antony Green <a href="http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/06/federal-redistributions-estimated-margins-for-new-victorian-electoral-boundaries.html#more">estimates</a> that the redistribution is likely to reduce Bandt’s two party preferred margin from 4.7% to 4.2%.</p>
<p>The other growing certainty is that the Liberals will preference Bowtell ahead of the Greens. This represents a critical boost for Bowtell given the important role the Liberal preferences played in securing Bandt’s election last time. Bandt received approximately 78% of the Liberals’ preferences in 2010, enabling him to secure a majority of the two party preferred vote at the last election. </p>
<p>However, there are other seemingly trivial but potentially important details, which could affect the result. One variable, although one which will not be known until much closer to the election, is the rank ordering of candidates on the ballot paper. </p>
<p>Where a candidate is positioned on the ballot paper is important because it determines whether a candidate may benefit from the donkey vote phenomenon. Donkey votes are normally cast by apathetic voters who express their lack of interest in the election by numbering every box on the ballot paper from the top to bottom in the order in which the candidates appear on the ballot paper. Although there are no reliable estimates of its likely benefits, voting expert Brian Costar <a href="http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/donkey-votes-to-go-to-coalition-in-key-marginal-labor-seats/story-fn59niix-1225906291988">estimated in 2010</a> that 2% of all votes fall into this category.</p>
<p>It is instructive to note that in 2010, Bandt drew the number two position on the ballot paper while Bowtell, appeared second last. At the risk of labouring the point, in a close ballot, these small details are important.</p>
<p>The balance of probabilities currently favour Bowtell. But if there is one thing that the last three years have repeatedly shown us, nothing is an absolute certainty.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15515/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Narelle Miragliotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Kevin Rudd’s restoration to the ALP leadership may yet be an electoral game-changer as the polling day of September 7 fast approaches. Recent opinion polling suggests Labor’s primary vote has returned…Narelle Miragliotta, Senior Lecturer in Australian Politics, Monash UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/168432013-08-08T20:25:46Z2013-08-08T20:25:46ZOld dog, new tricks: can Beattie save Labor in Forde?<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/28909/original/t964yjqy-1375939224.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Former Queenland Premier and new Labor candidate for Forde Peter Beattie and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (right) arrive for a press conference, 8 August 2013.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">(AAP Image/Lukas Coch)</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The shock entry of former Queensland premier Peter Beattie into the federal election campaign as the Labor candidate for Forde was kept a tightly guarded secret - and with good reason.</p>
<p>It sends two clear messages to the people of <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/ford/">Forde</a>. After coming out of political retirement at the age of 60, Beattie would not be running if he thought he couldn’t wrest the marginal seat off the sitting Liberal National Party candidate. And he would not be going to Canberra as an opposition backbencher - so he must believe that Kevin Rudd can win.</p>
<p>Both messages offer a fillip for Labor supporters in a very tight campaign, in which Forde is one of Queensland’s must-win seats for Labor to stay in government.</p>
<p>If the current polls are to be believed, the Rudd government needs to pick up at least six seats around Australia, especially with some seats in NSW (such as <a href="https://theconversation.com/new-england-an-independent-seat-in-more-ways-than-one-15523">New England</a>) and elsewhere already pencilled in as gains for the Coalition.</p>
<h2>What drives the people of Forde?</h2>
<p><a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/qld/forde.htm">Forde</a> is a microcosm of Australian society, including a complete spread of socio-economic groups. It ranges from large homes on the Albert and Logan rivers, through to community and social housing. It is also incredibly diverse, with the Logan council area claiming people from <a href="http://www.logan.qld.gov.au/planning-and-building/planning/community-planning/cultural-diversity">more than 200 nationalities and ethnic groups</a>, with different languages and cultural heritages.</p>
<p>The electorate has undergone dramatic changes since its creation nearly 30 years ago. Through the 1980s and 1990s, it was at the centre of the south-east Queensland’s population boom. Today, Forde covers <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/dat/news/elections/federal/2013/guide/maps/ford.pdf">a corridor of suburbs</a> between Logan, south of Brisbane, and northern parts of the Gold Coast.</p>
<p>When I first won the seat at the 1987 federal election, Forde took in an area that stretched from Indooroopilly Bridge, in Brisbane’s southern suburbs, down past Logan to the Kingston Butter Factory. By the time I lost at the 1996 election, the electoral boundaries had been redrawn so significantly that Kingston Butter Factory was the only electoral booth remaining from a decade earlier. In fact, I had to move home twice in my time as an MP in order to stay in the electorate. </p>
<p>The key issues in Forde are jobs, transport, health and education. The last major public transport infrastructure was the Gold Coast rail line, built by the federal government and opened in 1994. Access to jobs is a big issue. While there are industrial estates, with only patchy public transport coverage, these can only be accessed by private cars if work times are irregular. </p>
<p>The area also has a Griffith University campus and a TAFE college. While these provide education services, transport access is also a problem for many students.</p>
<p>Local unemployment is higher than the national average, and the cuts to public sector jobs under the Newman state government may help in swinging some support over to Beattie. </p>
<h2>Local challenges</h2>
<p>Way back in 1986, when I was first preselected as Labor’s candidate for Forde, Peter Beattie was one of the first people to join me on the hustings. We hired a truck, had a band on the back and toured the local shopping centres.</p>
<p>What Beattie will bring to the 2013 election is an enthusiastic campaigning style, along with considerable experience. While he might be a self-confessed “media tart”, he is extremely engaging on a personal level. </p>
<p>Beattie had repeatedly ruled out entering federal politics since stepping down as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Beattie">Queensland premier in 2007</a>, as the Liberal Party highlighted with <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Klk0AA___wk">a YouTube video</a> uploaded soon after the news broke that he would run as a federal candidate.</p>
<p>Much has been made of whether Peter Beattie should live in the electorate, with <a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/former-queensland-premier-peter-beattie-will-stand-in-federal-seat-of-forde-in-election/story-fnihsrf2-1226693267301">one man heckling him for not being a local</a> as he arrived with prime minister Kevin Rudd for a press conference at the Beenleigh Events Centre, south of Brisbane. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/humble-peter-beattie-confirms-his-labor-candidacy-for-federal-seat-20130808-2rjmq.html#ixzz2bLqXfBj3">Beattie told reporters</a> that he had moved into his brother’s home in Shailer Park in the electorate this morning, and that if elected he would buy a home and move there immediately. Whether that is a significant issue in the election is yet to be seen; he is well known to many people in Forde, so it may not be quite the same issue as it would usually be.</p>
<h2>Shameless media tart or vote magnet?</h2>
<p>Labor branch members have been out campaigning for almost the whole period of the Gillard government. For some it has been a very difficult exercise, made even more so by the massive loss of state members in the 2012 Queensland election, which left Labor with just seven MPs in the state parliament. Resources and morale have been low.</p>
<p>As well as giving Labor its best chance of winning back Forde, I would expect that Beattie’s return could help attract vital extra votes in other fiercely contested Brisbane electorates, including Bonner, Blair and Brisbane.</p>
<p>But this will not be an easy run for Beattie. His opponent is the sitting Liberal National Party member, <a href="http://www.bertvanmanen.com.au/">Bert van Manen</a>, who won the seat in the 2010 election <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/ford/">with a 1.6% margin</a>. He is a very personable local man, whose social conservatism will no doubt appeal to many constituents who will continue to support him.</p>
<p>Based on my experience of campaigning alongside him, Beattie’s entry into the race could be a game changer for Queensland - and possibly for the wider federal election. Whatever the outcome, it’s certainly become one of the seats to watch.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/16843/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mary Crawford was the Labor member for Forde from 1987 to 1996. She is a current member of the ALP.</span></em></p>The shock entry of former Queensland premier Peter Beattie into the federal election campaign as the Labor candidate for Forde was kept a tightly guarded secret - and with good reason. It sends two clear…Mary Crawford, Visitor's Position, QUT Business School, Management, Queensland University of TechnologyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/155232013-08-05T20:19:18Z2013-08-05T20:19:18ZNew England: an independent seat in more ways than one<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/27312/original/bpm38cp9-1373520392.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">The Nationals' Barnaby Joyce is running for New England in the House of Representatives, which he is expected to win comfortably.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">AAP/Lukas Coch</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The seat of <a href="http://www.aec.gov.au/profiles/nsw/new-england.htm">New England</a>, stretching from the Queensland border in the north, through the New England region and the north-west slopes and to the Liverpool plains in the south, would have been on everyone’s radar but for <a href="news/2013-06-26/tony-windsor-and-rob-oakeshott-are-quitting-politics/4780492">the departure</a> of sitting member Tony Windsor. The seat of will now undoubtedly <a href="http://www.news.com.au/national-affairs/joyce-wins-nationals-preselection-to-contest-nsw-seat-of-new-england/story-fn59niix-1226619724346">be taken</a> by the Nationals’ Barnaby Joyce, but the question is: could Windsor <a href="http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2013/06/26/3789867.htm">have won</a>?</p>
<p>The seat is a creation of federation, switching hands between Protectionist and free trade parliamentarians in its early days, and, surprisingly, held by the ALP between 1906 and 1913. From the formation of the Country Party in the early 1920s to Windsor’s <a href="http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/parlment/hansart.nsf/V3Key/LA20011116035">victory in 2001</a>, it was retained by the Country and then National Party. </p>
<p>It is a curious country seat ― typical in its reliance on agriculture but containing an unusual panoply of education institutions and lifestyles. To understand the peculiarity of the seat, Windsor’s victory in 2001 - and the consolidation of his vote in <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-12246-135.htm">2004</a>, <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-13745-135.htm">2007</a> and <a href="http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-15508-135.htm">2010</a> - should be seen in a broader context. </p>
<p>From 1963 until 1998, the seat was held by the National Party’s Ian Sinclair. During that long period Sinclair was able to build up a considerable personal following. </p>
<p>In 1996, the year that John Howard swept to office, Sinclair secured more than 60% of the primary vote. But the more typical primary vote for the National Party in the Sinclair days was of the order of 50% (and considerably less in the 1983 landslide to Bob Hawke and the ALP). </p>
<p>However, during the political disenchantment of the past 15 years or so - expressed in various ways, including the rise of independents - the seat morphed into something quite different from what it was. </p>
<p>The collapse in the National Party vote came in two stages. In 1998, when Sinclair vacated the seat, the Liberal Party contested it, drawing away more than 16% of the non-Labor primary vote. </p>
<p>Additionally, the National Party bled to One Nation, which recorded a primary vote of 13.5%. But that election was also interesting in the way that independent Graham Nuttall (later a staffer in Tony Windsor’s office) recorded a respectable 9%. The Nationals retained the seat, but it was no longer “theirs”.</p>
<h2>Windsor emerges</h2>
<p>In 2001, Windsor, an independent switching from the NSW parliament, attracted 45% of the primary vote over the Nationals’ 39%, the latter’s vote mildly improving. With the Nationals formerly relying on a primary support base of 50%, Windsor was obviously drawing support from quarters beyond the Nationals’ base. </p>
<p>Part of it was from those who voted Liberal ― and perhaps National ― in 1998; a little of it was from those who previously voted One Nation; and a lot came from those who had voted independent or Labor in 1998. What also makes the 2001 result remarkable is that Windsor achieved this momentum against the general swing to the Coalition in that election.</p>
<p>A second shift in the Nationals’ vote came in 2004: some lost to a Liberal, but most lost to Windsor. Although Windsor had captured a hefty chunk of Nationals’ support (about 22 percentage points of the primary vote), his support base was much broader, and included erstwhile Liberals, independent voters, one-time ALP voters, and a personal following. His primary vote was at more than 57%, and the preference flow pushed his two-party-preferred (2PP) figure to 71%.</p>
<p>What is interesting is that, in 2007, the Nationals’ primary vote didn’t recover even though no Liberal ran in that poll. By 2007, it stood at a little over 23%, a result roughly repeated in 2010. Windsor, meanwhile, further consolidated his hold, and in 2007 and 2010 attracted primary votes of nearly 62% and 2PP votes of 74% and 72%.</p>
<p>It’s possible the Nationals could have taken the seat from Windsor in 2013, but not likely. First, internal polling reportedly gave <a href="http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2013/05/28/571564_politics-news.html">cause for optimism</a> in the Windsor camp. But, more importantly, and based on what we know from the figures presented here, the Nationals would had to have clawed back well over half the primary vote it had lost to Windsor to have given them a workable primary base of 40% or more. And it needed at least that much to have any show because, from 2001, it could never achieve a 2PP result more than a few points above its primary vote.</p>
<p>In truth, it would have needed considerably more. The Nationals needed to double their primary vote by wresting something very close to the 25% of former Nationals support now held by Windsor. As with so many other things about Tony Windsor, we can believe him when he says he was not afraid of a fight.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/15523/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tim Battin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The seat of New England, stretching from the Queensland border in the north, through the New England region and the north-west slopes and to the Liverpool plains in the south, would have been on everyone’s…Tim Battin, Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, School of Humanities, University of New EnglandLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.