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The current policy of low interest rates should end within the next six months, says the RBA Shadow Board. AAP/Dan Himbrechts

Interest rates should fall no further: RBA Shadow Board

Last month’s cash rate cut should not be repeated, say the majority of Reserve Bank Shadow Board members.
Australia’s rates should rise in the next six to 12 months, says the Shadow Reserve Bank. AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts

Still no clear direction for economy: RBA should hold

Economic data is giving a mixed picture on whether the Reserve Bank should cut rates, but on balance, RBA members should hold.
Uncertainty around Greece defaulting on debt repayments continues to dominate the global outlook. AAP/EPA/Aexandros Vlachos

Financial markets expect a cut, but RBA Shadow Board says hold

Financial markets have factored in a cut to Australia’s cash rate, but economists - including the CAMA Shadow Board - aren’t so sure.
The drop in oil prices, and consequently fuel costs, is driving down inflation and helping the Australian economy. Andy Rain/EPA/AAP

Interest rates decision could boil down to oil: RBA Shadow Board

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens is closely watching rising house prices. Dean Lewins/AAP

RBA’s holding pattern is likely to stay, for now

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
With the Australian dollar continuing to fall, the local economy is expected to rebalance. Paul Miller/AAP

Falling Aussie dollar to weigh on interest rates decision

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Over the next twelve months, the Shadow Board members attach a 40% probability that the cash rate will need to increase, slightly more than the probability that the cash rate needs to fall. AAP

Boost growth, or counter a weaker dollar - which way should the RBA go?

Whither the Aussie dollar? Since the RBA dropped the cash rate to 2.75% last month the Australian dollar has fallen to below 96 US cents, a depreciation of more than 7% against the US dollar. With weaker…
Despite continuing unrest in Europe - particularly Cyprus - the global economy has firmed, say Shadow Reserve Bank commentators.

RBA: rates should hold, with a gradual return to neutral

The consensus of the nine members of the Shadow Board is that the Reserve Bank of Australia should leave interest rates unchanged from March at 3.00%. But the balance of risks implies rates should rise…
A blunt instrument: the case for interest rates to rise is strengthened by rising unemployment and a persistently high Australian dollar which has defied previous cuts. AAP

Rate cut unlikely, but the forward path for interest rates will be up

The Shadow Reserve Board, an initiative of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) made up of eminent industry and academic economists, returns this month. Reserve Bank of Australia board…
Re-run: if the US fiscal cliff has the same feel as last year’s debt ceiling crisis, we’re not surprised…

2012, the year that was: Business and Economy

Different year, same crisis. Around this time last year, the United States was looking down the barrel of economic disaster with the debt ceiling. As we approach 2013, it peers over the fiscal cliff. That…

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