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It’s been a steady-as-she-goes year for Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens. Alan Porritt/AAP

Rates tipped to stay on hold in final RBA decision for 2014

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens is closely watching rising house prices. Dean Lewins/AAP

RBA’s holding pattern is likely to stay, for now

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
With the Australian dollar continuing to fall, the local economy is expected to rebalance. Paul Miller/AAP

Falling Aussie dollar to weigh on interest rates decision

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
The picture of Australia’s economy right now is murky. PSJeremy/Flickr

Economic outlook in Australia remains murky

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Rates should stay steady for now, say CAMA economists. Dan Peled/AAP

Call likely to grow louder for interest rates to rise

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Consumer sentiment has fallen since the federal budget while other indicators suggest the economy is in limbo. AAP/Dan Himbrechts

Rates should hold until post-budget malaise clears

The CAMA RBA Shadow Board is a project by the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, based at the ANU, which asks industry and academic economists what interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia should…
Economic activity led by housing is strengthening - but a tough budget may dampen growth. AAP/Lukas Coch

Rates: housing-led upswing, but tight budget may drag growth

Latest economic news shows some promising signs for the Australian economy. However, the new government’s first budget next Tuesday is a big unknown. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in March while full…
Australia’s economy is showing promising signs, with global events the main source of concern. AAP

Promise on the horizon for Australian economy

The Australian economy appears to be benefiting from the current expansionary stance in monetary policy, despite uncertainties in the global economy. The CAMA Shadow Board is 71% confident that the cash…
Rising unemployment is likely to be a factor in future interest rate movements. AAP Image/Joe Castro

Spectre of rising unemployment to weigh on rates decision

The key question for interest rates this month is whether improving domestic demand will curb the increasing rate of unemployment and underemployment, or whether labour market weakness will persist. The…
Australia’s economic position remains uncertain, which may prompt the Reserve Bank to hold interest rates. AAP

Waiting game on economy means RBA should hold

Without a clear direction of where the Australian economy is heading, the consensus to keep the cash rate at its current level of 2.5% remains strong. Uncertainties surrounding the domestic and foreign…
Data suggests a tentative economic improvement. Image sourced from www.shutterstock.com

Has the Australian economy turned the corner?

The balance of risks to Australia’s economy has barely shifted from last month, so that the consensus to keep the cash rate at its current level of 2.5% remains strong, according to Reserve Bank Shadow…
Over the next twelve months, the Shadow Board members attach a 40% probability that the cash rate will need to increase, slightly more than the probability that the cash rate needs to fall. AAP

Boost growth, or counter a weaker dollar - which way should the RBA go?

Whither the Aussie dollar? Since the RBA dropped the cash rate to 2.75% last month the Australian dollar has fallen to below 96 US cents, a depreciation of more than 7% against the US dollar. With weaker…
Down? Stay as it is? Commentators are divided about the direction of the cash rate. Image sourced from www.shutterstock.com

Stay the course with interest rates: shadow board

The Reserve Bank of Australia should leave interest rates unchanged this month according to the consensus of Shadow Reserve Board members. Amid market uncertainty over whether the RBA board may choose…
Despite continuing unrest in Europe - particularly Cyprus - the global economy has firmed, say Shadow Reserve Bank commentators.

RBA: rates should hold, with a gradual return to neutral

The consensus of the nine members of the Shadow Board is that the Reserve Bank of Australia should leave interest rates unchanged from March at 3.00%. But the balance of risks implies rates should rise…
A number of Shadow Bank commentators point to a slight uplift in the housing market as a sign that interest rates should rise in the medium term.

Interest rates should stay on hold, for now

No change remains the consensus of the nine members of the Shadow Board in the Reserve Bank of Australia holding interest rates unchanged from February at 3.00%. But rates need to rise significantly within…
A blunt instrument: the case for interest rates to rise is strengthened by rising unemployment and a persistently high Australian dollar which has defied previous cuts. AAP

Rate cut unlikely, but the forward path for interest rates will be up

The Shadow Reserve Board, an initiative of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) made up of eminent industry and academic economists, returns this month. Reserve Bank of Australia board…
A cut in Australia’s cash rate tomorrow has been factored in by most economic practitioners, but Shadow Board academics are split over whether it should. AAP

Academics v practitioners: split views within the Shadow Board

Many economists think the RBA Board will cut the cash rate this month. With commodity prices projected to be weakening, financial markets suggest a rate cut is likely. Mind you, many practitioners suggested…
The CAMA Shadow Board believes the Reserve Bank of Australia should leave the cash rate unaltered. AAP

Interest rates should stay put

The Reserve Bank of Australia should leave the cash rate unchanged tomorrow, with little evidence suggesting an interest rate cut is justified, according to members of the CAMA Shadow Board. The Shadow…

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