tag:theconversation.com,2011:/us/topics/shipping-pollution-52315/articlesShipping pollution – The Conversation2023-07-14T00:29:20Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2093212023-07-14T00:29:20Z2023-07-14T00:29:20ZWhy the shipping industry’s increased climate ambition spells the end for its fossil fuel use<p>A <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/Revised-GHG-reduction-strategy-for-global-shipping-adopted-.aspx">revised strategy</a> to reduce global shipping emissions has emerged from two weeks of <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/MeetingSummaries/Pages/PREVIEW-MEPC-80-3-7-July-2023.aspx">intense talks</a> in London. It marks a significant increase in the industry’s climate ambition. </p>
<p>The revised strategy has been criticised for not being ambitious enough. However, the <a href="https://www.itf-oecd.org/itf-transport-outlook-2023">forecast growth in global trade</a> and the world’s shipping fleet means the reductions required of individual ships are much greater than the overall greenhouse gas emission targets. </p>
<p>The new targets for international shipping are:</p>
<ul>
<li>reductions of 20% (from a 2008 baseline), striving for 30%, by 2030</li>
<li>reductions of 70%, striving for 80%, by 2040</li>
<li>net-zero emissions “by or around, i.e. close to” 2050. </li>
</ul>
<p>We calculate the strategy will require cuts in emissions <em>per ship</em> of up to 60% by 2030 and as much as 91% by 2040. This means the days of fossil-fuelled ships are numbered.</p>
<h2>Edging closer to limiting warming to 1.5°C</h2>
<p>Global shipping emissions rank within to the top 10 countries for emissions. The industry should do its fair share in keeping global warming <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement">below 1.5°C</a>. </p>
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-shipping-is-under-pressure-to-stop-its-heavy-fuel-oil-use-fast-thats-not-simple-but-changes-are-coming-204271">Global shipping is under pressure to stop its heavy fuel oil use fast – that’s not simple, but changes are coming</a>
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<p>The revised strategy was negotiated at the London headquarters of the International Maritime Organization (<a href="https://www.imo.org/">IMO</a>), the United Nations agency that regulates shipping. Backed by the <a href="https://sciencebasedtargets.org/about-us#who-we-are">Science-Based Targets initiative</a>, several Pacific Island states, New Zealand, the US, the UK and Canada had proposed emission cuts of at least 37% by 2030, 96% by 2040 and to absolute zero by 2050. (An <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/Pages/06GHGinitialstrategy.aspx">initial strategy</a> adopted in 2018 aimed to reduce shipping emissions by at least 50% by 2050.)</p>
<p>The revised strategy’s targets are not as high as those called for by the science and the most ambitious governments. However, they are still very stringent at a ship level. </p>
<p><a href="https://unctad.org/topic/transport-and-trade-logistics/review-of-maritime-transport">Shipping volumes have grown by more than 50% since 2008</a>, with further growth expected. Increasing numbers of ships mean average emission reductions per ship will need to be 54-60% by 2030 and 86-91% by 2040.</p>
<p>Before the revised strategy, IMO <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/Pages/06GHGinitialstrategy.aspx">policy</a> focused on improving the energy efficiency and carbon intensity of new and existing ships. These tools failed to rein in shipping emissions. </p>
<p>Climate Action Tracker’s most recent <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/sectors/shipping/">analysis</a> concluded the “highly insufficient” initial strategy put shipping on a pathway consistent with 3-4°C of warming. To estimate how the new targets compare – assuming the strategy’s measures that are yet to be adopted will be effective – they can be superimposed on this assessment’s current trajectories. </p>
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536930/original/file-20230711-27-qm5cob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536930/original/file-20230711-27-qm5cob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/536930/original/file-20230711-27-qm5cob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536930/original/file-20230711-27-qm5cob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536930/original/file-20230711-27-qm5cob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=305&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536930/original/file-20230711-27-qm5cob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536930/original/file-20230711-27-qm5cob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/536930/original/file-20230711-27-qm5cob.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=383&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Climate Action Tracker graph with additional timeline (in purple) added to reflect the revised strategy. The dotted purple line reflects the <em>striving for</em> targets.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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<p>This shows the revised strategy still does not align global shipping with the emission-reduction pathway needed to avoid more than 1.5°C of warming. But it does mark the beginning of the end for fossil fuels.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/global-carbon-emissions-at-record-levels-with-no-signs-of-shrinking-new-data-shows-humanity-has-a-monumental-task-ahead-193108">Global carbon emissions at record levels with no signs of shrinking, new data shows. Humanity has a monumental task ahead</a>
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<h2>What are the strategy’s key elements?</h2>
<p>The revised strategy calls for “<em>net</em>-zero” GHG emissions “by or around, i.e. close to 2050”. The term “net” leaves an unfortunate loophole for future use of emission offsets. It’s big enough for the giant container ship <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given">Ever Given</a> to steam through. This ambiguity has been left for future negotiations to resolve.</p>
<p>Importantly, though, IMO member states agreed to set targets for emissions on a “well-to-wake” basis, covering emissions from both fuel production and combustion. Including “upstream” emissions ensures shipping decarbonisation does not shift emissions ashore. Being required to achieve these reductions will fundamentally and rapidly change the sector’s technology and energy supply chains. </p>
<p>Decarbonisation will drive up shipping costs. Developing countries fear the impacts will be much greater for them than for developed countries. </p>
<p>Small island developing states and least developed countries bear almost no historical responsibility for the climate crisis. They have called for
a “<a href="https://unctad.org/news/why-should-we-talk-about-just-and-equitable-transition-shipping">just and equitable transition</a>”. So too have countries with large numbers of maritime workers, like the Philippines, as well as the <a href="https://www.itfglobal.org/en/about-us/who-we-are">International Transport Workers’ Federation</a> representing these workers. </p>
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<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-reach-net-zero-we-must-decarbonise-shipping-but-two-big-problems-are-getting-in-the-way-170464">To reach net zero, we must decarbonise shipping. But two big problems are getting in the way</a>
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<p>To deliver a policy that both reduces emissions and supports a just and equitable transition, the revised strategy includes a commitment to finalise a “basket of candidate measures”, both technical and economic.</p>
<p>The technical measure is a fuel standard that ratchets down the permissible emission intensity of fuels over time. This proved uncontroversial. </p>
<p>The “candidate” economic measures to price emissions did not all get broad support. For example, a mandatory universal emissions levy – proposed by the Marshall Islands and the Solomon Islands – was strongly opposed by countries like China, Brazil and Argentina for fear it might harm their exports. </p>
<p>Many “small island developing states” and “least developed countries” backed a levy. They see it as the most environmentally effective companion to a fuel standard. A price on emissions will speed up the transition, while revenues from the levy can be used to support a just and equitable transition. </p>
<p>As a result of these political differences, more work needs to be done to resolve the specifics of the emissions pricing mechanism.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/marshall-islands-a-nation-at-the-heart-of-global-shipping-fights-for-climate-justice-202613">Marshall Islands, a nation at the heart of global shipping, fights for climate justice</a>
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<iframe src="https://www.shipmap.org" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: 10px; margin-top: 4px">Press the play button or zoom out and use the filters to see where different ship types travel. Created by <a target="_top" href="https://www.kiln.digital/">London-based data visualization studio Kiln</a> and the <a target="_top" href="http://www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/energy">UCL Energy Institute</a><br><br></div>
<h2>Strategy is still a work in progress</h2>
<p>The message to industry is crystal clear: the commercial competitiveness of fossil-fuel-driven ships, and demand for them, will dwindle rapidly with almost a full phasing out by the 2040s. During this rapid transition, shipping firms will have to very carefully manage the liabilities and risks of existing investments and formulate ways to maximise opportunities and market share.</p>
<p>Pressure from Pacific Island states and increased public scrutiny forced IMO member states to commit to higher levels of ambition than many had wanted to accept. Continued pressure will be needed, though, to ensure the measures adopted deliver on the ambition of the IMO strategy. </p>
<p>Before member states adopt any of these measures, the UN Conference
on Trade and Development (<a href="https://unctad.org/about">UNCTAD</a>) will model the expected impacts on states. Some countries may then fight hard to block or reduce the effect of measures that have “disproportionate negative impacts”. </p>
<p>The final “basket of measures” won’t be adopted until 2025 when their details are finalised. They will become legally binding when the strategy comes into force in 2027. </p>
<p>In sum, the revised strategy is a modest win, but the battle is <a href="https://www.u-mas.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/MEPC-80-overview-FAQs-UMAS-.pdf">far from over</a>.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/209321/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christiaan De Beukelaer receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the ClimateWorks Foundation.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>Tristan Smith owns shares in UMAS International, that working alongside UCL Energy Institute, provides advisory services on the subject of maritime decarbonisation. My research group is recipient of research funding from UKRI, Climateworks Foundation and Quadratue Climate Foundation. I am on the advisory board of the Global Maritime Forum, and the Strategy Board of the Getting to Zero Coalition - not for profit structures that work across governments and industry stakeholders on maritime decarbonisation. </span></em></p>Growing ship numbers and reductions in the industry’s total emissions add up to big emission cuts per ship – as much as 60% by 2030 and 91% by 2040. The days of fossil-fuelled ships are now numbered.Christiaan De Beukelaer, Senior Lecturer in Culture & Climate, The University of MelbourneTristan Smith, Reader in Energy and Transport, UCLLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2026132023-06-26T20:05:40Z2023-06-26T20:05:40ZMarshall Islands, a nation at the heart of global shipping, fights for climate justice<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533045/original/file-20230621-25-ssssbu.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C112%2C3569%2C2360&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Thousands of ships are registered in Majuro, Marshall Islands.</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span></figcaption></figure><p>I went sailing on a bright yellow outrigger canoe in the Marshall Islands in March. On board were Alson Kelen, founder of <em><a href="https://www.canoesmarshallislands.com/">Waan Aelõñ in Majel</a></em> (WAM, Canoes of the Marshall Islands), and a group of youngsters taking part in a climate justice workshop. </p>
<p>Alson’s NGO is a hive of activity. Sailing ships, some finished and some under construction, surround an A-frame building right between the government-owned Marshall Islands Resort and the Ministry of Education on Majuro Atoll. Alson acquired the land decades ago from the country’s first president, Amata Kabua, for a symbolic dollar. </p>
<p>As we sailed, he told us his organisation’s work is about “empowering the young men and women of the Marshall Islands, endowing them with the skillset essential to bring them into the global society”. It’s keeping the traditions of shipbuilding and wayfaring alive, while offering fossil-fuel-free transport between the country’s islands. </p>
<p>As home to the world’s <a href="https://www.marineinsight.com/maritime-law/top-10-largest-flag-states-in-the-shipping-industry/">third-largest ship registry</a>, the Marshall Islands is a key player in global shipping, while <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2021/10/29/marshall-islands-new-climate-study-visualizes-confronting-risk-of-projected-sea-level-rise">rising sea levels threaten</a> its low-lying islands. This puts the country in a unique position in negotiations on <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/MeetingSummaries/Pages/PREVIEW-MEPC-80-3-7-July-2023.aspx">new shipping emission targets</a>.</p>
<p>Although WAM’s yellow outriggers might not make a dent in greenhouse gas emissions from the world’s cargo ships, these little vessels are a local counterpoint to the Pacific state’s climate diplomacy. </p>
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<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533402/original/file-20230622-19-i0j6uk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/533402/original/file-20230622-19-i0j6uk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533402/original/file-20230622-19-i0j6uk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533402/original/file-20230622-19-i0j6uk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=600&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533402/original/file-20230622-19-i0j6uk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533402/original/file-20230622-19-i0j6uk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/533402/original/file-20230622-19-i0j6uk.jpeg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=754&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">Alson Kelen explaining how to build and sail Marshallese outrigger canoes.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Christiaan De Beukelaer</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/to-reach-net-zero-we-must-decarbonise-shipping-but-two-big-problems-are-getting-in-the-way-170464">To reach net zero, we must decarbonise shipping. But two big problems are getting in the way</a>
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<h2>What’s at stake?</h2>
<p>The need to decarbonise shipping is urgent. Shipping is the most efficient means of cargo transport, but the sheer volume of goods – <a href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2022_en.pdf">11 billion tonnes a year</a> – puts its emissions on a par with countries like Germany or Japan. Shipping emissions add up to around <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/ourwork/Environment/Pages/Fourth-IMO-Greenhouse-Gas-Study-2020.aspx">1 billion tonnes a year</a>.</p>
<p>In 2018, the International Maritime Organization (<a href="https://www.imo.org/">IMO</a>), the United Nations agency that regulates shipping, set its first <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Cutting-GHG-emissions.aspx#:%7E:text=2018%20Initial%20IMO%20GHG%20Strategy&text=The%20main%20goals%20are%3A,as%20possible%20in%20this%20century.">sector-wide climate target</a>: to halve shipping emissions between 2008 and 2050. </p>
<p>This “initial strategy” doesn’t align with the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C. It does, however, require a review of the strategy every five years. </p>
<p>A revision is due to be adopted next month. This follows years of go-slow tactics by several large developing countries and lofty commitments by most IMO member states to “keep 1.5 alive”. </p>
<p>Shipping looks increasingly likely to have a target of zero emissions by 2050. Whether that’s “net zero” or “absolute zero”, and whether it counts only emissions on board or the full life cycle of emissions attributable to shipping, is still being negotiated. </p>
<p>Zero by 2050 sounds like a big win. It will certainly be better than the current target. But emissions must come down a lot faster for the 1.5°C limit to remain an option. </p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/shipping-emissions-must-fall-by-a-third-by-2030-and-reach-zero-before-2050-new-research-167830">Shipping emissions must fall by a third by 2030 and reach zero before 2050 – new research</a>
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<h2>How can the energy transition be made equitable?</h2>
<p>For a low-lying atoll state like the Marshall Islands, climate change is a matter of life and death. Exceeding 1.5°C of warming will likely <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950">trigger tipping points</a> that would raise sea levels as ice caps melt. This would inundate the Marshall Islands. </p>
<p>To “keep 1.5 alive”, the Marshall Islands and other Pacific states are calling for hard “<a href="https://www.tradewindsnews.com/regulation/green-seas-nations-call-for-imo-to-adopt-37-emissions-cut-for-shipping-by-end-of-the-decade/2-1-1403998">interim targets</a>” to reduce shipping emissions by 37% by 2030 and 96% by 2040. The <a href="https://www.state.gov/advance_green_shipping">United States</a>, Canada and the United Kingdom have <a href="https://splash247.com/us-lays-out-its-green-goals-for-shipping-ahead-of-mepc-80/">proposed</a> similar targets. </p>
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<figcaption><span class="caption">A rising sea level is an existential threat to the Marshall Islands.</span></figcaption>
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<p>Pacific states are also calling for an <a href="https://unctad.org/news/why-should-we-talk-about-just-and-equitable-transition-shipping">equitable energy transition</a>. Just as Alson’s outrigger canoes won’t make much difference to shipping emissions, Pacific islanders – indeed most of the world’s population – didn’t produce the emissions that are causing the climate crisis. </p>
<p>In 2021, the Marshall Islands proposed a <a href="https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1136097/Marshall-Islands-demands-$100-tax-on-shipping-emissions">global levy on shipping emissions</a> – at least US$100 per tonne of CO₂-equivalent – to speed up the transition. It’s <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800923001805?dgcid=coauthor">increasingly clear</a>, however, that “levies exceeding US$100 per tonne may be needed to reduce carbon emissions”. </p>
<p>A growing group of countries, including Ghana, Namibia, South Korea, France and Denmark, are calling for a levy on shipping. Last week at the Paris Summit for a New Global Financing Pact, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-23/carbon-tax-for-ships-backed-by-22-countries-at-paris-summit">22 countries</a> – including Norway – supported a levy. <a href="https://www.tradewindsnews.com/regulation/-it-s-something-we-ll-look-at-us-still-on-the-fence-on-carbon-levy-for-shipping/2-1-1473966">The US didn’t</a>, but flagged it is something it will “look at”. Even so, support for the Pacific <em>equity</em> agenda remains limited. </p>
<p>Shipping costs will go up as the energy transition unfolds. Costs are expected to <a href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2022_en.pdf">increase more for the poorest countries</a>, which already often pay higher-than-average shipping charges. For small island developing states like the Marshall Islands, not getting help with these costs could prove disastrous. </p>
<h2>‘We are not drowning. We are fighting’</h2>
<p>A sailing cargo ship to serve the Marshall Islands’ needs is <a href="https://www.shipandoffshore.net/news/shipbuilding/detail/news/keel-laid-for-marshall-islands-supply-ship.html">under construction</a> at the Asia Shipbuilding shipyard in South Korea. The publicly owned Marshall Islands Shipping Corporation will operate the 48-metre vessel. While this ship may make only a small contribution to curbing emissions, the country is working hard to translate the ambitious targets of its climate diplomacy into practice at home.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/wind-powered-cargo-ships-are-the-future-debunking-4-myths-that-stand-in-the-way-of-cutting-emissions-199396">Wind-powered cargo ships are the future: debunking 4 myths that stand in the way of cutting emissions</a>
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<p>Maritime transport could be the first industry to have a global price on emissions. It will raise enormous revenues, leading to questions of how to administer and spend these funds. The World Bank is positioning itself to administer the <a href="https://www.tradewindsnews.com/regulation/world-bank-adds-weight-to-3-7trn-carbon-levy-as-crunch-imo-carbon-talks-near/2-1-1468474">US$3.7 trillion</a> that may be levied over the decades to 2050.</p>
<p>Some may argue the call for an equitable transition is too big an ask. The shipping industry, they whisper in the corridors of the International Maritime Organization, can’t be expected to solve all the world’s problems. They’re right – although no one is suggesting shipping must solve <em>all</em> the world’s problems. </p>
<p>But if the transition isn’t equitable, they’re barely trying to solve any problems. The most ambitious “equitable transition” now on the table will barely fix centuries of colonial exploitation and unfair trade.</p>
<p>As IMO member states gear up for two weeks of negotiations in London, the <a href="https://www.sprep.org/news/world-leaders-told-we-are-not-drowning-we-are-fighting">rallying cry</a> of Pacific youth remains as important as ever: “We are not drowning. We are fighting.”</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/202613/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christiaan De Beukelaer receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the ClimateWorks Foundation. </span></em></p>Rising sea levels threaten the low-lying island nation with the world’s third-largest shipping register. That’s why it’s leading efforts to cut shipping emissions in an equitable way.Christiaan De Beukelaer, Senior Lecturer in Culture & Climate, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/2042712023-04-24T12:26:41Z2023-04-24T12:26:41ZGlobal shipping is under pressure to stop its heavy fuel oil use fast – that’s not simple, but changes are coming<p><em>Most of the clothing and gadgets you buy in stores today were once in shipping containers, sailing across the ocean. Ships carry <a href="https://unctad.org/rmt2022">over 80% of the world’s traded goods</a>. But they have a problem – the majority of them burn heavy sulfur fuel oil, which is a <a href="https://theicct.org/sector/maritime-shipping/">driver of climate change</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>While cargo ships’ engines have <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Oct/IRENA_Decarbonising_Shipping_2021.pdf">become more efficient</a> over time, the industry is under growing pressure to eliminate its carbon footprint.</em></p>
<p><em>European Union legislators reached an agreement to require an <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_1813">80% drop in shipping fuels’ greenhouse gas intensity by 2050</a> and to <a href="https://maritime-executive.com/article/eu-parliament-finalizes-emissions-trading-system-rules-for-shipping">require shipping lines to pay</a> for the greenhouse gases their ships release. The International Maritime Organization, the United Nations agency that regulates international shipping, also plans to <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/Future-Fuels-and-Technology.aspx">strengthen its climate strategy</a> this summer. The IMO’s current goal is to cut shipping emissions 50% by 2050. President Joe Biden said on April 20, 2023, that the U.S. would <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/04/20/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-catalyze-global-climate-action-through-the-major-economies-forum-on-energy-and-climate/">push for a new international goal of zero emissions</a> by 2050 instead.</em></p>
<p><em>We asked maritime industry researcher <a href="https://haslam.utk.edu/people/profile/don-maier/">Don Maier</a> if the industry can meet those tougher targets.</em></p>
<h2>Why is it so hard for shipping to transition away from fossil fuels?</h2>
<p>Economics and the <a href="https://unctad.org/rmt2022">lifespan of ships</a> are two primary reasons.</p>
<p>Most of the big shippers’ fleets are less than 20 years old, but even the newer builds don’t necessarily have the most advanced technology. It takes roughly a year and a half to come out with a new build of a ship, and it will still be based on technology from a few years ago. So, most of the engines still run on fossil fuel oil.</p>
<p>If companies do buy ships that run on alternative fuels, such as hydrogen, methanol and ammonia, they run into another challenge: There are <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2023.01.220">only a few ports</a> so far with the infrastructure to provide those fuels. Without a way to refuel at all the ports that a ship might use, companies will lose their return on investment, so they will <a href="https://www.globalmaritimeforum.org/content/2023/04/the-shipping-industrys-fuel-choices-on-the-path-to-net-zero_final.pdf">keep using the same technology</a> instead.</p>
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<p>It isn’t necessarily that the maritime industry doesn’t want to go the direction of cleaner fuels. But their assets – their fleets – were purchased with a long lifespan in mind, and alternative fuels <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Oct/IRENA_Decarbonising_Shipping_2021.pdf">aren’t yet widely available</a>.</p>
<p>Ships <a href="https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/sea-transport/this-common-chemical-could-help-shipping-giants-start-to-decarbonize">are being built</a> that can run on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol, and even hydrogen is coming online. Often these are <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ship-fuel-cost-down-from-war-peak-but-green-fallout-looms">dual-fuel</a> – ships that can run on either alternative fuels or fossil fuels. But so far, not enough of this type of ship is being ordered <a href="https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2021/Oct/IRENA_Decarbonising_Shipping_2021.pdf">for the costs to make financial sense</a> for most builders or buyers.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/indicative-shipping-fuel-cost-ranges">The costs</a> of alternative fuels, like <a href="https://www.dnv.com/expert-story/maritime-impact/methanol-as-an-alternative-fuel-for-container-vessels.html">methanol</a> and hydrogen fuels made with renewable energy (as opposed to being made <a href="https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-resources">with natural gas</a>), are also still <a href="https://www.drewry.co.uk/logistics-executive-briefing/logistics-executive-briefing-articles/switch-to-green-e-methanol-would-raise-bunker-costs-by-340">significantly higher</a> than fuel oil or LNG. But the good news is those costs are <a href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/ship-fuel-cost-down-from-war-peak-but-green-fallout-loom">starting</a> to <a href="https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/OurWork/Environment/Documents/FFT%20Project/Preliminary%20outputs%20for%20the%20study.pdf">decline</a>. As production ramps up, emissions will drop further.</p>
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<h2>Can tougher regulations and carbon pricing effectively push the industry to change?</h2>
<p>A little bit of pressure on the industry can be helpful, but too much, too fast can really make things more disruptive.</p>
<p>Like most industries, shipping lines want standardized rules they can count on not to change next year. Some of these companies have invested millions of dollars in new ships in recent years, and they’re now being told that those ships might not meet the new standards – even though the ships may be almost brand new.</p>
<p>Another concern with the EU’s moves is whether it has a grasp on all the “what if” scenarios. For example, if the EU has <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230320IPR77909/fit-for-55-deal-on-new-eu-rules-for-cleaner-maritime-fuels">stricter rules than other countries</a>, that affects which ships companies can use on European routes. Any vessels that they put on <a href="https://www.shipmap.org/">routes to Europe</a> will have to meet those emissions standards. If there’s a greater demand for products in Europe, they may have fewer vessels they could use.</p>
<iframe src="https://www.shipmap.org" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="400"></iframe>
<div style="width: 100%; font-size: 10px; margin-top: 4px">Press the play button or zoom out and use the filters to see where different ship types travel. Created by <a target="_top" href="https://www.kiln.digital/">London-based data visualization studio Kiln</a> and the <a target="_top" href="http://www.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/energy">UCL Energy Institute</a><br><br></div>
<p>I do think the <a href="https://www.worldshipping.org/statements/wsc-position-paper-on-eu-ets">change will be coming soon in the industry</a>, but changes have to <a href="https://www.drewry.co.uk/logistics-executive-briefing/logistics-executive-briefing-articles/switch-to-green-e-methanol-would-raise-bunker-costs-by-340">make financial sense</a> to the shipping lines and their customers, too. </p>
<p>Economists have estimated that the cost of cutting emissions 50% by 2050 are anywhere from <a href="https://www.u-mas.co.uk/new-study-by-umas-shows-that-decarbonisation-of-the-shipping-sector-is-a-whole-system-challenge-and-not-something-just-for-shipping/">US$1 trillion</a> to, more realistically, <a href="https://splash247.com/3-4trn-stopford-puts-a-price-tag-on-the-global-fleet-upgrade-needed-through-to-imo-2050/">over $3 trillion</a>, and full decarbonization would be even higher. Many of those costs will be passed down to charterers, shippers and eventually consumers – meaning you and me.</p>
<h2>Are there ways companies can cut emissions now while preparing to upgrade their fleets?</h2>
<p>There are a number of options ship companies are using now to lower emissions.</p>
<p>One that has been used for at least 10 years is putting <a href="https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2018.0263">higher quality paint</a> on the hulls, which reduces the friction between the hull and the water. With less friction, the engine isn’t working as hard, which reduces emissions.</p>
<p>Another is slow speed. If ships run at a higher speed, their engines work harder, which means they use more fuel and release more emissions. So shippers will use <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114143">slow steaming</a>. Most of the time, ships will go slow when they’re close to shore to reduce emissions that cause smog in port cities like Los Angeles. On the open ocean, they will go back to normal speed.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="2 long, thick electric cables are lowered from a ship to workers on the dock below." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522426/original/file-20230422-1377-2wh722.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/522426/original/file-20230422-1377-2wh722.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522426/original/file-20230422-1377-2wh722.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522426/original/file-20230422-1377-2wh722.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=424&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522426/original/file-20230422-1377-2wh722.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522426/original/file-20230422-1377-2wh722.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/522426/original/file-20230422-1377-2wh722.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=533&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Workers at the Port of Long Beach, Calif., prepare to plug in a container ship.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news-photo/workers-at-the-port-of-long-beach-lower-cables-to-plug-in-a-news-photo/529561692">Tim Rue/Getty Images</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Another option common in the U.S. and Europe is shutting down the ship’s engines while in port and <a href="https://theicct.org/publication/marine-ports-electrification-feb23/">plugging into the port’s electricity</a>. It’s called “cold ironing.” It avoids burning more of the ship’s fuel, which affects air quality. The <a href="https://polb.com/port-info/news-and-press/port-reaches-milestone-at-long-beach-container-terminal-08-20-2021/">Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach</a>, where smog from idling ships has been a health concern, have been a big driver of electrification. It’s also <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.11.003">less expensive</a> for shipping companies than burning their fuel while in port.</p>
<p>As simple as those may sound, they have made <a href="https://wwwcdn.imo.org/localresources/en/OurWork/Environment/Documents/FFT%20Project/Preliminary%20outputs%20for%20the%20study.pdf">huge improvements in terms of emissions</a>, but they <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11030675">aren’t enough on their own</a>.</p>
<h2>Will a higher goal set by the IMO be enough to pressure the industry to change?</h2>
<p>I used to work in shipping, and I know the maritime industry is a very old-school industry from centuries ago. But the industry has invested millions in new ships with the most effective technology available in recent years. </p>
<p>When the IMO began requiring all ships using heavy fuel in global trade to shift to low-sulfur fuel, the <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/02-IMO-2020.aspx">industry pivoted to meet the rule</a>, even though retrofits were costly and time consuming. Many shipping lines complied by installing “scrubbers” that essentially filter the ship’s engine, and new ships were built to run on the low-sulfur fuel oil.</p>
<p>Now, the industry is being told the standards are changing again.</p>
<p>All industries <a href="https://www.worldshipping.org/statements/wsc-position-paper-on-eu-ets">want consistency</a> so they can be confident investing in a new technology. The shipping lines will follow what the IMO says. They will push back, but they will still do it. That’s in part because the IMO <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/About/Pages/FAQs.aspx">supports the maritime industry</a>, too.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/204271/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Don Maier is affiliated with the International Association of Maritime Port Executives and the Inland Rivers, Ports, & Terminals Association.</span></em></p>Shipping companies have billions invested in fleets that were built to last decades. Now, the US is calling for zero emissions by 2050, and the EU is raising the cost of fossil fuel use.Don Maier, Associate Professor of Business, University of TennesseeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1500782020-11-16T18:55:33Z2020-11-16T18:55:33ZShips moved more than 11 billion tonnes of our stuff around the globe last year, and it’s killing the climate. This week is a chance to change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369464/original/file-20201116-13-32riej.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&rect=0%2C0%2C3884%2C2235&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock </span></span></figcaption></figure><p>The shipping of goods around the world keeps economies going. But it comes at an enormous environmental cost – producing more CO₂ than the aviation industry. This problem should be getting urgent international attention and action, but it’s not.</p>
<p>This week, all 174 member states of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) will discuss a plan to meet an emissions reduction target. But <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/36-ISWG-GHG-7.aspx">the target</a> falls far short of what’s needed, and the plan to get there is also weak.</p>
<p>As other industries clean up their act, shipping’s share of the global emissions total will only increase. New fuels and ship design, and even technology such as mechanical sails, may go some way to decarbonising the industry – but it won’t be enough.</p>
<p>It’s high time the international shipping industry radically curbed its emissions. The industry must set a net-zero target for 2050 and a realistic plan to meet it. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Cargo ships waiting offshore with plane wing in foreground" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369478/original/file-20201116-17-18vhh85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369478/original/file-20201116-17-18vhh85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369478/original/file-20201116-17-18vhh85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369478/original/file-20201116-17-18vhh85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=399&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369478/original/file-20201116-17-18vhh85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369478/original/file-20201116-17-18vhh85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369478/original/file-20201116-17-18vhh85.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=502&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The shipping industry accounts for more carbon emissions than aviation.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Shipping: by the numbers</h2>
<p>Globally, more than <a href="https://www.ics-shipping.org/shipping-facts/shipping-and-world-trade">50,000 merchant ships</a> ship about <a href="https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/rmt2019_en.pdf">11 billion tonnes</a> of goods a year. In 2019 they covered <a href="https://unctad.org/webflyer/review-maritime-transport-2020">nearly 60 trillion tonne-miles</a>, which refers to transporting one tonne of goods over a nautical mile.</p>
<p>Per tonne-mile, carbon dioxide emissions from shipping are among the <a href="https://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/2600/Sea_fairer:_Maritime_transport_and_CO2_emissions.html">lowest</a> of all freight transport options. But in 2018, shipping still emitted <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-shipping-environment-imo-idUSKCN2502AY">1,060 million tonnes of CO₂</a> – 2.89% of global emissions. By comparison, the aviation industry <a href="https://theicct.org/publications/co2-emissions-commercial-aviation-2018">contributed</a> 918 million tonnes of CO₂, or 2.4% of the total.</p>
<p>And as international trade increases and other sectors decarbonise, global shipping is <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2015/569964/IPOL_STU(2015)569964_EN.pdf">expected</a> to contribute around 17% of human-caused emissions by 2050. </p>
<h2>An emissions pariah</h2>
<p>The IMO, which regulates the global shipping industry, did not set meaningful emissions reduction targets until <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/Pages/06GHGinitialstrategy.aspx">April 2018</a>. This is despite being requested to reduce emissions as far back as 1997 under the <a href="https://unfccc.int/topics/mitigation/workstreams/emissions-from-international-transport-bunker-fuels">Kyoto Protocol</a>.</p>
<p>The IMO has <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-ships.aspx">pledged</a> to halve shipping emissions between 2008 and 2050 while aiming for full decarbonisation. By 2030, the carbon intensity (or emissions per tonne-mile) of individual ships should fall by 40%, compared with 2008 levels. </p>
<p>The IMO’s <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/MeetingSummaries/MEPC">Marine Environment Protection Committee</a>, is devising binding rules for the industry to achieve these emissions goals. <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/36-ISWG-GHG-7.aspx">Draft measures</a> being considered this week focus solely on reducing the carbon intensity of individual ships. The plan has been <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/shipping-body%E2%80%99s-climate-plan-%E2%80%98ignores-paris-agreement%E2%80%99">slammed by critics</a> because emissions reductions are not in line with Paris Agreement commitments of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C by 2100.</p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/the-shipping-sector-is-finally-on-board-in-the-fight-against-climate-change-95212">The shipping sector is finally on board in the fight against climate change</a>
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<p>There are two main issues with the 40% emissions intensity target.</p>
<p>First, it’s not ambitious enough. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2018.1461059">Research suggests</a> limiting warming to 1.5°C requires the shipping industry to reach net-zero emissions. Merely reducing the carbon intensity of ships will <a href="https://theicct.org/publications/marine-eexi-nov2020">barely make a dent</a> in current emissions. Worse, even the best-case scenario will likely lead to a <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/shipping-body%E2%80%99s-climate-plan-%E2%80%98ignores-paris-agreement%E2%80%99">14% emissions increase</a> compared to 2008. </p>
<p>Second, the IMO has yet to say how it will meet its targets. The <a href="https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/36-ISWG-GHG-7.aspx">plan</a> up for discussion this week is weak: not least because it <a href="https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/shipping-body%E2%80%99s-climate-plan-%E2%80%98ignores-paris-agreement%E2%80%99">lacks enforcement mechanisms</a>. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="Exterior of IMO building" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369479/original/file-20201116-21-k176r4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369479/original/file-20201116-21-k176r4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369479/original/file-20201116-21-k176r4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369479/original/file-20201116-21-k176r4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369479/original/file-20201116-21-k176r4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369479/original/file-20201116-21-k176r4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369479/original/file-20201116-21-k176r4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption">The IMO dragged its feet on setting an emissions target for the industry.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Shutterstock</span></span>
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<h2>So how do we fix the problem?</h2>
<p>Earlier this year, I sailed on the <a href="https://timbercoast.com/en">Avontuur</a>. This 100-year-old two-masted schooner under German flag sailed from Germany to the Caribbean and Mexico to load 65 tonnes of coffee and cacao, then <a href="https://unctad.org/news/sail-cargo-charting-new-path-emission-free-shipping">ship it under sail</a> to Hamburg. </p>
<p>The round-trip took more than six months and 15 crew members. Roughly 169 million ships like the Avontuur would be needed to transport the 11 billion tonnes of goods moved by sea each year. It would require 2.5 billion crew, compared with 1.5 million today. Clearly, that is not realistic.</p>
<p>So how, then, do we solve the international shipping problem? Clean transport advocates <a href="https://timbercoast.com/en/members/cornelius-bockermann/">say</a> we must reduce demand for cargo transport by using what’s locally available, and generally consuming less and moving to a <a href="https://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/2756870/MSSI-IssuesPaper-6_Alexander_2016.pdf">post-growth economy</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/plain-sailing-how-traditional-methods-could-deliver-zero-emission-shipping-97180">Plain sailing: how traditional methods could deliver zero-emission shipping</a>
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<p>Some scientists concur, <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2018.1461059">arguing</a> either carbon intensity or shipping demand must come down – and <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430">probably both</a>.</p>
<p>Ships can significantly reduce their emissions simply by <a href="https://seas-at-risk.org/24-publications/988-multi-issue-speed-report.html">slowing down</a>. Carbon emissions increase exponentially when ships travel above cruising speed. But the industry seems unwilling to pick this low-hanging fruit, perhaps because it would compromise just-in-time supply chains.</p>
<p>Ships commonly burn huge amounts of heavy fuel oil. Emerging fuels, such as <a href="https://www.lr.org/en/insights/global-marine-trends-2030/zero-emission-vessels-2030/">hydrogen and ammonia</a>, have the potential to cut emissions from ships. But producing these fuels <a href="https://www.lr.org/en/insights/global-marine-trends-2030/zero-emission-vessels-2030/">may create</a> substantial emissions, and adopting new fuels would require building new ships or retrofitting existing ones.</p>
<p>Existing vessels can also be retrofitted with more efficient <a href="https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/files/40102807/High_Seas_High_Stakes_High_Seas_Project_Final_Report.pdf">propulsion mechanisms</a>. They could also be fitted with <a href="http://wind-ship.org/">wind-assist technologies</a> <a href="http://wind-ship.org/technology-design/">such as</a> sails, rotors, kites, and suction wings. Research <a href="https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0308597X15003917">suggests</a> these technologies could reduce a ship’s emissions by 10–60%.</p>
<p>And <a href="https://www.grotezeilvaart.nl/">new designs</a> for sail-powered cargo vessels <a href="https://www.neoline.eu/en/">are</a> <a href="https://www.dykstra-na.nl/designs/wasp-ecoliner/">emerging</a>. But these ships are yet to be built and it may be a long time before they are widely used. </p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="An artist impression of the Neoline sail-powered cargo ship." src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369483/original/file-20201116-17-183dgvp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/369483/original/file-20201116-17-183dgvp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369483/original/file-20201116-17-183dgvp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369483/original/file-20201116-17-183dgvp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=365&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369483/original/file-20201116-17-183dgvp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369483/original/file-20201116-17-183dgvp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/369483/original/file-20201116-17-183dgvp.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=459&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Sail-powered cargo vessels can help slash global emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Neoline</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>Looking ahead</h2>
<p>Technological solutions on their own will not bring the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2018.1461059">necessary emissions reductions</a>. New technologies must be embraced immediately, and ambitious regulation is necessary. <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2020.1831430">Industry and consumer demand</a> for shipped goods must fall as well. </p>
<p>Earth’s remaining carbon budget is <a href="https://carbontracker.org/carbon-budgets-where-are-we-now/">fast shrinking</a> and all industry sectors must do their fair share. At this point in the climate crisis, further delays and weak targets are inexcusable.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/150078/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Christiaan De Beukelaer receives funding from the Australian Research Council. </span></em></p>It’s high time the international shipping industry radically curbed its emissions. The industry must set a net-zero target and adopt a realistic plan to meet it.Christiaan De Beukelaer, Senior Lecturer, The University of MelbourneLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1321522020-02-21T07:51:52Z2020-02-21T07:51:52ZGreen ammonia could slash emissions from farming – and power ships of the future<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316424/original/file-20200220-92497-e19zrj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">
</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/agricultural-background-red-tractor-pulling-plow-1242516652">LaineN/Shutterstock</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the past 100 years, a simple molecule has had an immensely positive impact on our world. Ammonia, which comprises three hydrogen atoms bonded to a single nitrogen atom, is widely used to make the fertilisers enable us to produce enough food for everyone on the planet. That makes it pretty much the most important molecule after water.</p>
<p>However, ammonia manufacturing is the world’s third biggest industrial process emitter of carbon dioxide, creating half a billion tonnes of CO₂ each year – 1.8% of global CO₂ emissions.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I have just produced a <a href="http://www.royalsociety.org/green-ammonia">report for the Royal Society</a> that shows producing zero-carbon green ammonia could cut global carbon emissions by almost 2%. What’s more, it could also store nation-scale amounts of renewable energy and power ships, trains and heavy-duty vehicles.</p>
<p>Ammonia is commonly produced by reacting methane with steam to produce hydrogen, and then reacting this with nitrogen from the air using what is known as the Haber-Bosch process. But the steam methane reforming also gives off carbon dioxide. In contrast, green ammonia <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/07/ammonia-renewable-fuel-made-sun-air-and-water-could-power-globe-without-carbon">is produced</a> with hydrogen that has been separated from water using renewable electricity. </p>
<p>It’s also possible to break ammonia back down into hydrogen and nitrogen, giving off energy in the process. And it can be burned like fossil fuels such as diesel. This means ammonia can also be used as an <a href="https://www.power-technology.com/features/ammonia-next-key-player-energy-storage/">energy store</a>.</p>
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<p>
<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-chemicals-can-save-the-world-from-climate-change-52095">Five ways chemicals can save the world from climate change</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire, UK, has a <a href="https://stfc.ukri.org/news/uk-team-develop-worlds-first-green-energy-storage-demonstrator/">unique green ammonia demonstration</a> system. It is powered by an on-site wind turbine and capable of producing up to 30kg of green ammonia a day. It can also feed green electricity back into the grid as required.</p>
<p>The challenge in making green ammonia production a viable alternative is bringing down the cost, of which 85% is electricity. In most parts of the world, renewable energy is still significantly more expensive than the methane used in conventional ammonia manufacturing.</p>
<p>However, the cost of electricity in areas with abundant renewable potential has decreased dramatically over the past decade, to around <a href="http://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/files/EEG_GlobalAuctionsReport.pdf">1.7-3.4 GBP pence per kWh</a>. This means you can produce green ammonia for around £220 per tonne.</p>
<p>This still isn’t as cheap as the conventional process. But to keep using this method while reducing our emissions to net zero we would have to combine carbon capture and storage so the resulting CO₂ wouldn’t enter the atmosphere. And that’s when green ammonia can become cost competitive.</p>
<h2>Zero-carbon fuel</h2>
<p>Green ammonia also has the potential to address one of the biggest unsolved challenges in the race for net zero emissions: how do we create flexible zero-carbon fuel reserves that last for years in the way current fossil fuels do? </p>
<p>Ammonia is <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/anhydrous-ammonia">easily stored</a> in large quantities as a liquid at modest pressures (between 10 and 15 times that of our atmosphere) or refrigerated to -33°C. In this form, the <a href="https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/green-ammonia/green-ammonia-policy-briefing.pdf">energy density</a> is around half that of petrol and over ten times that of batteries.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316843/original/file-20200224-24651-1ysgsoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316843/original/file-20200224-24651-1ysgsoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316843/original/file-20200224-24651-1ysgsoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316843/original/file-20200224-24651-1ysgsoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=531&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316843/original/file-20200224-24651-1ysgsoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316843/original/file-20200224-24651-1ysgsoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316843/original/file-20200224-24651-1ysgsoq.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=667&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
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<span class="caption"></span>
<span class="attribution"><span class="source">Royal Society</span></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What ammonia has over other potential fuel alternatives is that we already have a global manufacturing and distribution system in place because of its widespread use as a feedstock for fertilisers. There is also a comprehensive network of ports that handle ammonia at large scale so it could become a fuel for long-distance shipping with relative ease.</p>
<p>In fact, the international shipping industry has already proven the feasibility of using ammonia as a fuel in their largest ocean-going container ships. MAN Energy Solutions, a designer and manufacturer of marine engines, has announced that the first ammonia engine could be in operation <a href="https://www.ammoniaenergy.org/articles/man-energy-solutions-an-ammonia-engine-for-the-maritime-sector/">by early 2022</a>. This would also open up opportunities for green fuels for trains, heavy-duty freight and perhaps even zero-carbon aviation.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316428/original/file-20200220-92518-1xx223m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/316428/original/file-20200220-92518-1xx223m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316428/original/file-20200220-92518-1xx223m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316428/original/file-20200220-92518-1xx223m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=400&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316428/original/file-20200220-92518-1xx223m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316428/original/file-20200220-92518-1xx223m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/316428/original/file-20200220-92518-1xx223m.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=503&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Ammonia can be burnt for energy like fossil fuels but with no carbon emissions.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/oil-tanker-discharging-black-smoke-dusk-673265353">SmallPrints/Shutterstock</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Ammonia does present other challenges. The use of ammonia-based fertilisers contributes to <a href="https://royalsociety.org/%7E/media/policy/projects/evidence-synthesis/Ammonia/Ammonia-summary.pdf">global declines in biodiversity</a>, widespread <a href="http://www.apis.ac.uk/overview/pollutants/overview_nh3.htm">air quality problems</a> and greenhouse gas emissions. New uses of ammonia must include effective measures to prevent any additional emissions.</p>
<p>Stringent controls that are already present at all current ammonia storage and relevant industrial sites, must be in place to ensure that the risks of ammonia release and the resulting formation of harmful nitrogen oxides (NOx) are negligible.</p>
<p>What we need to do now is to research and demonstrate the potential of ammonia, from improving wind and solar power through optimising green ammonia production and storage. And we need to develop a comprehensive portfolio of ways of turning ammonia back into power when and where we need it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/132152/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Bill David receives funding from UKRI for academic research. </span></em></p>Making ammonia produces almost 2% of global carbon dioxide emissions.Bill David, Professor of Chemistry, University of OxfordLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/1087312018-12-18T11:49:59Z2018-12-18T11:49:59ZCargo ships are emitting boatloads of carbon, and nobody wants to take the blame<p>Maritime shipping transports <a href="http://www.ics-shipping.org/shipping-facts/shipping-and-world-trade">90 percent of the goods traded</a> around the world by volume. Moving large amounts of goods such as oil, computers, blue jeans and wheat across oceans drives the global economy, making it <a href="https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2017/11/01/does-international-trade-create-winners-and-losers/">cheaper and easier</a> to buy almost anything. </p>
<p>But hauling goods around by sea requires roughly <a href="http://www.airclim.org/acidnews/new-figures-global-ship-emissions">300 million tons</a> of <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-urgency-of-curbing-pollution-from-ships-explained-94797">very dirty fuel</a>, producing <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Third%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Study/GHG3%20Executive%20Summary%20and%20Report.pdf#page=32">nearly 3 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions,</a> giving the international maritime shipping industry roughly the <a href="https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/indicator-greenhouse-gas-emissions#textpart-1">same carbon footprint as Germany</a>. </p>
<p>At summits like the COP24 meeting held in <a href="https://theconversation.com/cop24-12-years-from-disaster-editors-guide-to-what-our-academic-experts-say-is-needed-to-fight-climate-change-107997">Poland in December of 2018</a> and in agreements such as the one struck in <a href="https://theconversation.com/paris-agreement-on-climate-change-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-52242">Paris in 2015</a>, national governments have largely ignored the carbon dioxide emissions from international shipping entering the atmosphere.</p>
<p>This is a real problem because if no country is held responsible for emissions, no government will try to reduce them. We believe as <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=qx-wMsUAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">scholars of global environmental cooperation</a> that one way forward is to make <a href="https://open.bu.edu/handle/2144/22742">international maritime shipping emissions</a> the responsibility of specific countries with the goal of increasing pressure to encourage emission reductions. </p>
<figure>
<iframe width="440" height="260" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TS2cszwTTcg?wmode=transparent&start=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
<figcaption><span class="caption">This video by Rebecca Cowing and David Dunn illustrates what’s wrong with the way the world keeps track of carbon dioxide emissions from international cargo ships.</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<h2>A globalized industry</h2>
<p>In international climate change negotiations, countries are in charge of reducing their own greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions from international shipping could be added to this responsibility. Figuring out whose emissions they are, however, is no easy task.</p>
<p>Perhaps no industry <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Safety/Pages/Default.aspx">is as globalized as maritime shipping</a>. The ships themselves have <a href="https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/flagging-standards">international webs of owners</a>, <a href="http://www.themaritimepost.com/top-10-biggest-shipping-companies-world/">operators</a> <a href="https://www.hg.org/ship-registration.html">and registrations</a>. They carry goods sourced in multiple places as they traverse the high seas, stopping in many countries.</p>
<p>A single ship might be connected to dozens of companies. It can be built by one company, owned by a group of other companies, and operated by a group of yet more companies. It may carry cargo for many hundreds of businesses destined for many ports run by different companies, be crewed by an outsourced staffing firm, and insured by another company. </p>
<p>The <a href="https://unctad.org/en/Pages/DIAE/World%20Investment%20Report/World_Investment_Report.aspx">United Nations Conference on Trade and Development</a> expects trade to continue to grow in the coming decades. The <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/Pages/Default.aspx">International Maritime Organization</a>, the international body that regulates shipping, predicts that as trade grows, carbon dioxide emissions from international shipping could <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/container-ships-use-super-dirty-fuel-that-needs-to-change/">increase by as much as 250 percent by 2050</a>. </p>
<p>To date, that organization has done little to address climate change even though it did <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/06ghginitialstrategy.aspx">announce in April 2018</a> that it aims to halve emissions from shipping by 2050 rather than letting them soar unchecked. <a href="https://www.maersk.com/EN-US/integrated?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3cuZ3LSb3wIVh56zCh3huAGeEAAYASAAEgJMAPD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds">Maersk</a>, the world’s largest shipping company, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/05/business/maersk-carbon-emissions-shipping/index.html">announced several months later</a> that it aims to reduce its emissions to zero by 2050.</p>
<p>This is great news, but neither the IMO nor Maersk have provided any detailed information about how these goals will be achieved. Both support more research into fuel-efficient technologies for shipping, but the <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Third%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Study/GHG3%20Executive%20Summary%20and%20Report.pdf#page=35">IMO itself admits that this is not going to be enough</a>.</p>
<p>So far, no country has taken ownership of any emissions from international shipping. Only emissions from domestic shipping, such as <a href="http://americanhistory.si.edu/onthewater/exhibition/4_2.html">cargo hauled across Lake Michigan</a>, are counted.</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/are-electric-vessels-the-wave-of-the-future-in-shipping/a-43046309">first electric vessels</a> are only now beginning to be made. These ships would most likely have much smaller carbon footprints than those in use today, but they can now only <a href="https://electrek.co/2017/12/04/all-electric-cargo-ship-battery-china/">travel short distances</a> before having to charge their batteries again. The <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/are-electric-vessels-the-wave-of-the-future-in-shipping/a-43046309">technology does not yet exist</a> for long maritime voyages for large vessels. </p>
<h2>Not mine</h2>
<p>There are several ways that emissions from international shipping could be allocated to specific countries. In 1996, the countries that had ratified the United Nations <a href="https://unfccc.int/process/the-convention/what-is-the-convention/status-of-ratification-of-the-convention">Framework Convention on Climate Change</a> – the first global treaty on climate change – identified <a href="http://unfccc.int/cop3/resource/docs/1996/sbsta/09a01.htm">eight options</a> to get this done. Over two decades later, there has been no progress with any of them. </p>
<p>The eight options include allocating carbon dioxide emissions to countries based on <a href="https://www.morethanshipping.com/what-is-bunker-or-baf/">where the fuel</a> ships use is sold, where ships are registered, or the origins or destinations of the ships. Each option would lead to radically different emissions responsibilities for individual countries, making it even harder for everyone to reach consensus.</p>
<p>We believe that a critical first step no matter what approach prevails would be to create a comprehensive and open database of international shipping routes and maritime emissions. That would establish a shared baseline for quantifying and allocating carbon dioxide emissions to countries.</p>
<p>Given all that is <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-1-5-c-is-worth-striving-for-but-is-it-feasible-104668">at stake in a warming world</a>, it is high time that countries stop ignoring a big chunk of the human produced carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere. To avoid dangerous climatic changes, it must be all hands on deck.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/108731/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Carbon emissions from maritime freight are everyone’s problem because of climate change.Henrik Selin, Associate Professor in the Frederick S Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston UniversityRebecca Cowing, GDP Center Administrator, Boston UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/952122018-04-18T05:46:38Z2018-04-18T05:46:38ZThe shipping sector is finally on board in the fight against climate change<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/215338/original/file-20180418-163971-15mrg2f.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">Australia will have to regulate its considerable shipping industry.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/sydney-australia-june-22-2014-cargo-201621812?src=UMTWLvzN_QeAUyjnFlpBcA-1-10">PomInAus/shutterstock.com</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>For the first time, the massive global shipping sector has agreed to a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, in what’s been called a “<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/13/carbon-dioxide-from-ships-at-sea-to-be-regulated-for-first-time">historic</a>” moment. </p>
<p>Maritime shipping, which carries about <a href="https://open.library.ubc.ca/cIRcle/collections/facultyresearchandpublications/52383/items/1.0042632">80% of global trade</a> by volume, contributes around A$9 billion directly to <a href="https://www.austrade.gov.au/local-sites/singapore/news/australia-and-singapore-s-shipping-sector-mirror-each-other">Australia’s gross domestic product</a>, and A$11.8 billion indirectly.</p>
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Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/three-ways-to-improve-commercial-shippings-environmental-footprint-76005">Three ways to improve commercial shipping's environmental footprint</a>
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<p>Sea transport has a relatively green image because ships emit less carbon dioxide per tonne and per kilometre than rail, truck or air transport. Yet, given its scale and rapid growth, it’s a major source of carbon emissions. Maritime transport emits around 1,000 million tonnes of CO₂ a year and is responsible for about <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Third%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Study/GHG3%20Executive%20Summary%20and%20Report.pdf">2.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions</a>.</p>
<h2>The international law</h2>
<p>Despite being a major contributor to climate change, the powerful shipping industry has successfully lobbied to be excluded from obligations to reduce emissions under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and, more recently, the 2015 <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-paris-climate-agreement-at-a-glance-50465">Paris Agreement</a>. </p>
<p>There are also no sector-wide emission reduction targets in maritime shipping under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In other key policy spaces, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), there are no obligations imposed on either states or shipping corporations to reduce maritime emissions. </p>
<p>Countries could potentially set emissions targets domestically, but they rarely set sectoral targets, especially for sectors that are heavily exposed to international trade. In this context, the shipping industry has been particularly footloose in its response to climate change.</p>
<p>It is therefore a cause for celebration that decades of negotiation have now yielded this agreement. The deal requires all IMO countries to reduce shipping emissions by 50% compared with 2008 levels. </p>
<p>Ships will be required to be more energy-efficient and to use cleaner energy such as solar and wind electricity generation. Currently, the shipping industry is <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/13/carbon-dioxide-from-ships-at-sea-to-be-regulated-for-first-time">overwhelmingly reliant</a> on dirty, carbon-rich fuels such as heavy diesel. </p>
<h2>Some stormy seas ahead</h2>
<p>The climate deal has been described as “historic”, but not all countries are on board. Some, particularly island nations that are vulnerable to sea level rise, wanted a “<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43759923">far, far more ambitious</a>” target. Others, including the United States, Brazil, Panama and Saudi Arabia, are <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/13/carbon-dioxide-from-ships-at-sea-to-be-regulated-for-first-time">strongly against it</a>. Reconciling these differences will be a difficult task for the IMO. </p>
<p>It has always been technically difficult to <a href="http://search.ror.unisa.edu.au/record/UNISA_ALMA11143261790001831/media/digital/open/9916056201601831/12143261780001831/13143289480001831/pdf">accurately calculate</a> the precise amount of fuel used during shipping operations. It’s even harder to <a href="https://open.library.ubc.ca/cIRcle/collections/facultyresearchandpublications/52383/items/1.0042632">allocate maritime emissions</a> to specific countries. </p>
<p>Contributing to the potential confusion is the use of “flags of convenience”. This is where a ship’s owners register the vessel in a country other than their own, and fly the flag of the country where registered. </p>
<p>This is usually done to disguise the relationship between the vessel and its actual owner, due to the attractive, lower regulatory burdens that some open registries offer. Shipping corporations could also use flags of convenience to avoid mandatory emission reduction targets.</p>
<h2>The way forward</h2>
<p>As a result of the climate deal, states will eventually need to introduce domestic laws setting emission reduction targets for their shipping industry. </p>
<p>These targets could also be applied to ships that call at their ports. The good news is that there is potential synergy between such regulation and existing laws, such as the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/shipping_en">European Union regulation</a> that requires ship owners and operators to monitor, report and verify CO₂ emissions from certain vessels that dock at European ports. </p>
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<em>
<strong>
Read more:
<a href="https://theconversation.com/five-ways-the-shipping-industry-can-reduce-its-carbon-emissions-94883">Five ways the shipping industry can reduce its carbon emissions</a>
</strong>
</em>
</p>
<hr>
<p>The new climate deal has the potential to change the way shipping companies operate. It presents an opportunity for the shipping industry to become part of the solution rather than the problem when it comes to climate change.</p>
<p>It’s also a strong signal to other international industries, such as the aviation sector, that have largely escaped emissions reduction targets. If we can reduce emissions in such a large and complex sector as marine transport, it bodes well for the capacity of international frameworks to tackle other difficult problems.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/95212/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>Until now, the international shipping industry has been excluded from the Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol, despite its major contribution to global emissions.Beatriz Garcia, Lecturer, Western Sydney UniversityJolene Lin, Director, Asia Pacific Centre for Environmental Law, National University of SingaporeLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/948832018-04-13T09:03:13Z2018-04-13T09:03:13ZFive ways the shipping industry can reduce its carbon emissions<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214519/original/file-20180412-549-1jawg5b.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption"></span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/oil-tanker-ship-sea-on-background-556864573">Shutterstock/Nightman1965</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>A shipping industry summit is looking into how it can reduce its share of global greenhouse gas emissions in line with the <a href="https://theconversation.com/uk/topics/paris-agreement-23382">Paris Agreement</a>. But a lack of low carbon technologies is not the problem.</p>
<p>The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 72nd Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting (<a href="http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/IMOMediaAccreditation/Pages/MEPC72.aspx">MEPC</a>) in London started off by being a promising, yet contentious gathering, as the industry desperately tried to agree a strategy for reducing emissions.</p>
<p>The sector has responded to this challenge with differing levels of <a href="http://www.marinelog.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=28848:imos-mepc-set-for-contentious-session&Itemid=227">enthusiasm</a>. The Marshall Islands called for a 100% cut in emissions by 2035, a group of countries (including India and Saudi Arabia) pushed for no outright cap on emissions, while the European Union wanted a cut of between 70% and 100% by 2050. It is <a href="https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1122183/IMO-strikes-tentative-deal-for-50-emissions-cut-by-2050">looking likely</a> that a strategy to deliver a 50% reduction from 2008 levels by 2050 is going to be the agreed outcome. Many fear this demonstrates insufficient progress.</p>
<p>Previous <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.4155/cmt.12.63">analysis</a> indicates that significant cuts in emissions within the sector will be extremely challenging to achieve unless fundamental changes are realised in the short term. </p>
<h2>Some options on the table</h2>
<p>So what can the sector do to rapidly reduce its emissions in the near term? There are many technical measures and operational improvements already being investigated in <a href="https://www.maerskline.com/about/sustainability/low-impact-shipping">industry</a> and <a href="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&q=http://www.lowcarbonshipping.co.uk/index.php?option%3Dcom_content%26view%3Dfeatured%26Itemid%3D101&source=gmail&ust=1523549607927000&usg=AFQjCNHHHRPnjzOh04y0n-ZmCHfRuXKDwQ">academia</a>. Here are <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17583004.2015.1013676">five viable options</a>, which are not necessarily mutually exclusive, that could help the industry cut emissions.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Operational measures including <a href="http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/americas/the-economics-of-slow-steaming.html">slow steaming</a> (ships operate at slow speeds, reducing their fuel consumption considerably) and route optimisation.</p></li>
<li><p>Incremental measures (mostly short term) which would cause the sector limited disruption, but are able to reduce emissions per vessel by as much as 5%. These include improving hull design, propeller optimisation and waste heat recovery.</p></li>
<li><p>Renewable energy – in particular the use of <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261913005928">wind-assist</a>, or wind power, for propulsion. <a href="https://theconversation.com/researchers-are-looking-to-a-surprisingly-old-idea-for-the-next-generation-of-ships-wind-power-44204">Examples include</a> the work that Cargill and Wessels have done trialling kite systems, and the experience of Enercon and Norsepower who both installed different rotor designs on ships.</p></li>
<li><p>Energy storage through the use of batteries and cold ironing (the process of providing shoreside electrical power to a ship at berth while its main and auxiliary engines are turned off). This would enable the sector to decarbonise by allowing it to run off electricity produced via a low carbon grid.</p></li>
<li><p>Fuel switch to lower carbon fuels for propulsion. </p></li>
</ol>
<h2>Fuel choice is key</h2>
<p>The most hotly debated of these measures is undoubtedly the choice of fuel burned on the ships themselves. With climate change firmly on the agenda and the historic legacy associated with the use of high sulphur content heavy fuel oil, the sector is at a pivotal point with regards to future fuel choices.</p>
<figure class="align-center ">
<img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214521/original/file-20180412-592-13hmy6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214521/original/file-20180412-592-13hmy6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214521/original/file-20180412-592-13hmy6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214521/original/file-20180412-592-13hmy6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=394&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214521/original/file-20180412-592-13hmy6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214521/original/file-20180412-592-13hmy6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214521/original/file-20180412-592-13hmy6g.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=495&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px">
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">A tanker bunkering (refueling) a container ship in Nakhodka, Russia, in February, 2018.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/nakhodka-russia-february-01-2018-tanker-1023825016?src=iMwDomtmBDQO_pRDZhnHqw-1-33">Shutterstock/VladSV</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Regulation surrounding local pollutants means that the future use of <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/environment/pollutionprevention/airpollution/pages/air-pollution.aspx">heavy fuel oil</a> is unsustainable. This topic is also being discussed separately at MEPC in association with sulphur limits in shipping fuels. Furthermore, ongoing efforts at MEPC to introduce more stringent measures on climate change mean that heavy fuel oil, diesel and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are not viable. This is despite LNG being seen by many in the sector as the most viable fuel to deliver on both these aspirations.</p>
<p>To understand the full extent of the environmental implications, it is important to consider the emissions released over the full life cycle and not just during fuel combustion. These “upstream” emissions include those associated with growing and/or manufacturing, distribution, use and disposal of a shipping alternative fuel. In failing to consider these wider emissions, there is a risk of misleading the industry and policy on the true emission penalties of any alternative fuels. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652617324721">Research</a> conducted by Tyndall Manchester has evaluated the upstream and operational local pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions associated with conventional fuels alongside a wider range of alternative fuels up to 2050. The fuels assessed are heavy fuel oil, diesel, LNG, hydrogen (with and without carbon capture and storage), renewable hydrogen, methanol, straight vegetable oil, biodiesel and bio-LNG.</p>
<p>Despite the likelihood of a weaker than hoped agreement on greenhouse gas emissions at MEPC, the analysis here still demonstrates that no widely available fuel exists to deliver on both the motivation of low carbon and low local pollutants. The conclusions for the industry are therefore contrary to its current direction of travel towards investments in LNG.</p>
<p>If the sector were to adopt hydrogen or other synthetic fuels, it would need to rely heavily on the decarbonisation of the energy input required for fuel production to ensure it can deliver absolute reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. It would also need widespread uptake of carbon capture and storage, which is far from a commercial reality. Similarly, bio-derived fuels could be an abatement option, but only if it can be ensured that upstream emissions – in particular, land use change while growing biomass – does not impact wider potential savings.</p>
<p>So looking ahead, if the sector wishes to deliver on the aspirations of MEPC, crucial barriers will be the respective fuel life cycles. The way to overcome these barriers may reside beyond the scope of the shipping sector alone. </p>
<p>As the urgent need to curtail greenhouse gas emissions is the more severe challenge, it is important to ensure that any short term measure does not diminish the potential roll-out of low carbon fuels, in particular when taking into account the long life times of ships and fuel supply infrastructure. To meet the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, whole life cycle emissions need to be accounted for.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94883/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Gilbert works for the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change research at the University of Manchester. He receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, United Kingdom (through the Shipping in Changing Climates Project: EP/K039253/1). He is affiliated with the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. </span></em></p>A shipping industry summit is exploring routes to a greener future.Paul Gilbert, Senior Lecturer in Climate Change Mitigation, University of ManchesterLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/947972018-04-12T10:54:03Z2018-04-12T10:54:03ZThe urgency of curbing pollution from ships, explained<figure><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214328/original/file-20180411-584-cm110e.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=496&fit=clip" /><figcaption><span class="caption">A cargo ship passes the Golden Gate Bridge outside San Francisco.</span> <span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://www.apimages.com/metadata/Index/Ocean-Emissions/45a647327e58463481ac1d356999aff3/54/0">AP Photo/Jeff Chiu</a></span></figcaption></figure><p>The <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/About/Pages/Default.aspx">International Maritime Organization</a>, a United Nations agency that regulates global shipping, is <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04100-9">writing new rules</a> to curb greenhouse gas emissions from ships by 2050 as it implements other regulations that will mandate <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/environment/pollutionprevention/airpollution/pages/sulphur-oxides-(sox)-%E2%80%93-regulation-14.aspx">cleaner-burning fuels at sea by 2020</a>. </p>
<p><a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=74F-n3sAAAAJ&hl=en">As researchers</a> who <a href="https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=nFDXRBkAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=ao">study the shipping industry</a>, we have determined that the benefits of greener shipping outweigh the costs. Yet <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/24590915?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">global environmental rule-making, implementation and enforcement</a> take a long time, creating delays that can endanger public health and the environment. </p>
<h2>Heavy fuel oil</h2>
<p>The more than <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/264024/number-of-merchant-ships-worldwide-by-type/">52,000 ships</a> crisscrossing ocean trade routes will burn more than <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Third%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Study/GHG3%20Executive%20Summary%20and%20Report.pdf">2 billion barrels of heavy fuel oil</a>
this year. Heavy fuel oil, a crude oil byproduct, contains sulfur concentrations up to 1,800 times higher than the diesel fuel burned on <a href="https://www.epa.gov/diesel-fuel-standards/diesel-fuel-standards-and-rulemakings">U.S. highways</a>. </p>
<p>Ships <a href="http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Documents/Third%20Greenhouse%20Gas%20Study/GHG3%20Executive%20Summary%20and%20Report.pdf">contribute between 2 and 3 percent</a> of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions, studies show. Unless the world takes action to control noxious air pollutants and reduce greenhouse gases, harmful pollution will grow in tandem with <a href="http://www.futurenautics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GlobalMarineTrends2030Report.pdf">global trade</a> in the coming decades.</p>
<p>Atmospheric processes transform ship exhaust into toxic particles, which drift far from shipping routes. Originating along shipping routes, these pollutants endanger human health and acidify lakes and streams hundreds of miles inland.</p>
<h2>Public health hazard</h2>
<p>As part of an international team of scholars, we researched how sulfur-related pollution from ships affects human health. Our team found that ship pollution causes about <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9">400,000 premature deaths</a> from lung cancer and cardiovascular disease, and 14 million cases of childhood asthma each year.</p>
<figure class="align-center zoomable">
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214204/original/file-20180411-592-z2pl9d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip"><img alt="" src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214204/original/file-20180411-592-z2pl9d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&fit=clip" srcset="https://images.theconversation.com/files/214204/original/file-20180411-592-z2pl9d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=1 600w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214204/original/file-20180411-592-z2pl9d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=2 1200w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214204/original/file-20180411-592-z2pl9d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=600&h=300&fit=crop&dpr=3 1800w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214204/original/file-20180411-592-z2pl9d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=1 754w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214204/original/file-20180411-592-z2pl9d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=30&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=2 1508w, https://images.theconversation.com/files/214204/original/file-20180411-592-z2pl9d.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=15&auto=format&w=754&h=377&fit=crop&dpr=3 2262w" sizes="(min-width: 1466px) 754px, (max-width: 599px) 100vw, (min-width: 600px) 600px, 237px"></a>
<figcaption>
<span class="caption">Projected premature mortality from lung cancer and cardiovascular disease due to sulfur pollution from ships in 2020 unless emissions are cut.</span>
<span class="attribution"><a class="source" href="http://doi.org//10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9">Study by James Winebrake, James Corbett and other researchers</a>, <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA</a></span>
</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Maritime regulation requires cooperation among many, if not most, of the world’s nations, using their shared authority to verify compliance upon arrival in their ports. But at sea, most shipping companies operate relatively independently of the country where they are headquartered.</p>
<p>The International Maritime Organization sets international shipping policies through consensus agreements that specify compliance requirements and leave enforcement up to national authorities. In 2008, governments and industries agreed to adopt cleaner fuels in 2020. Since then, we estimate that ship air pollution exposure contributed to more than 1.5 million premature deaths and aggravated asthma conditions for over 100 million children.</p>
<p>Given the climate benefits of low-carbon shipping, we believe that the world can’t wait three decades to set and enforce shipping greenhouse gas targets.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/94797/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>James J. Winebrake co-led research partly funded by non-governmental organizations including the ClimateWorks Foundation. He has also received funding from other environmental and industry organizations, regulatory agencies, the U.S. government and the International Maritime Organization.</span></em></p><p class="fine-print"><em><span>James J Corbett co-led research directly related to this article that was partly funded by non-governmental organizations, including the ClimateWorks Foundation. He has also received funding from other environmental and industry organizations, regulatory agencies, the U.S. government and the International Maritime Organization.</span></em></p>The maritime pollution that drifts to dry land, causes an estimated 400,000 premature deaths and 14 million cases of childhood asthma each year.James J. Winebrake, Professor of Public Policy and Dean of the College of Liberal Arts, Rochester Institute of TechnologyJames J Corbett, Professor, University of DelawareLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.